諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Northrop Grumman's Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Victor, and I will be your operator today.

    女士們先生們,美好的一天,歡迎來到諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第二季度電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。我的名字是維克多,今天我將成為你的接線員。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

    我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人 Todd Ernst 先生,他是財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁。恩斯特先生,請繼續。

  • Todd Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

    Todd Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

  • Thank you, Victor, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call. We'll refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted to our IR web page this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including 2022 guidance and beyond, including our outlooks reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

    謝謝維克多,大家早上好,歡迎參加諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第二季度電話會議。我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們的 IR 網頁上的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。在我們開始之前,今天電話會議上討論的事項,包括 2022 年及以後的指導,包括我們的展望,反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用信息的判斷。根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款,它們構成前瞻性陳述。

  • Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are noted in today's press release and in our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

    前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,這在今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中都有說明。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際業績出現重大差異。今天的電話會議將包括非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標與我們在收益發布中的 GAAP 結果一致。

  • On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and David Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

    今天的電話會議是我們的主席、首席執行官兼總裁 Kathy Warden;和我們的首席財務官 David Keffer。在這個時候,我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you again for joining us.

    謝謝,托德。大家早上好,再次感謝您加入我們。

  • I'd like to start today's call by highlighting the James Webb Space Telescope and the incredible images released just a few weeks ago. This extraordinary telescope represents countless Northrop Grumman engineers, technicians, scientists and cross-functional teams working in partnership with NASA for over two decades. In addition to leading the industry team, we designed and built the deployable sun shield, provided the spacecraft, developed the observatory subsystems and integrated the total system. The advanced technology we've created and the images it captures will inspire the next generation of innovators and scientists and we believe will be one of Webb's many legacies. Webb exemplifies the defining characteristic of our business strategy to develop and produce innovative technology solutions to address our customers' toughest challenges.

    我想通過突出詹姆斯韋伯太空望遠鏡和幾週前發布的令人難以置信的圖像來開始今天的電話會議。這架非凡的望遠鏡代表了無數諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的工程師、技術人員、科學家和跨職能團隊,與 NASA 合作了二十多年。除了領導行業團隊,我們還設計和建造了可展開的遮陽板,提供了航天器,開發了天文台子系統並集成了整個系統。我們創造的先進技術及其捕捉的圖像將激勵下一代創新者和科學家,我們相信這將成為韋伯的眾多遺產之一。 Webb 體現了我們的業務戰略的定義特徵,即開發和生產創新技術解決方案以應對客戶最嚴峻的挑戰。

  • This strategy differentiates us and aligns our portfolio with our customers' priorities. And as a result, we strengthened our position in the market. As a reminder, the 4 core focus areas of our strategy are technology leadership, sustainably and profitably growing our business, keeping a laser focus on performance and deploying capital in value creating ways. This strategy continues to yield results.

    這一戰略使我們與眾不同,並使我們的產品組合與客戶的優先事項保持一致。因此,我們加強了我們在市場上的地位。提醒一下,我們戰略的 4 個核心重點領域是技術領先、可持續和盈利地發展我們的業務、保持對績效的高度關注以及以創造價值的方式部署資本。這種策略繼續產生結果。

  • In the second quarter, we saw strong demand across our businesses with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.48, driven by awards for F-35, GEM 63 and restricted programs. All of our businesses had a book-to-bill ratio above 1 in the quarter, driving a 6% sequential increase in our backlog, which now totals $80 billion. Given this backlog growth and our continued alignment to customers' budgets and priorities, we are even more confident we can accelerate our revenue in 2023 from the low single digits we're guiding this year.

    在第二季度,我們的業務需求強勁,訂單出貨比為 1.48,這得益於 F-35、GEM 63 和受限項目的獎勵。本季度我們所有業務的訂單出貨比均高於 1,推動我們的積壓訂單環比增長 6%,目前總計 800 億美元。鑑於這種積壓增長以及我們繼續與客戶的預算和優先事項保持一致,我們更有信心在 2023 年從我們今年指導的低個位數加速我們的收入。

  • In the quarter, we did experience certain challenges from the broader macroeconomic environment, including a tight labor market and supply chain delays, which impacted sales timing. However, we're pleased with the progress our team continues to make in addressing these challenges and hiring trends improved as we progressed through the second quarter, laying the foundation for sales growth in the second half of the year.

    在本季度,我們確實遇到了來自更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境的某些挑戰,包括勞動力市場緊張和供應鏈延遲,這影響了銷售時機。然而,我們對我們的團隊在應對這些挑戰方面繼續取得的進展感到高興,隨著我們在第二季度的進展,招聘趨勢得到改善,為下半年的銷售增長奠定了基礎。

  • As our business grows, we remain focused on performance and driving cost efficiencies across the business. This continued focus contributed to another quarter of solid margin performance. Our segment OM rate was a robust 12.2% in Q2 and stands at 12% year-to-date. Dave will cover further details of our quarterly results and guidance update momentarily, but first, I'd like to touch on some highlights from the quarter. The technology developed for James Webb is one example of Northrop Grumman's innovation.

    隨著我們業務的增長,我們仍然專注於整個業務的績效和提高成本效率。這種持續的關注促成了又一個季度的穩健利潤率表現。我們的細分市場 OM 率在第二季度達到 12.2%,今年迄今為 12%。戴夫將暫時介紹我們季度業績和指導更新的更多細節,但首先,我想談談本季度的一些亮點。為詹姆斯韋伯開發的技術是諾斯羅普格魯曼公司創新的一個例子。

  • Another example is how we are using technology to produce innovative and affordable solutions for our customers. To that end, we're investing in digital design capabilities and advanced manufacturing facilities. In close partnership with our customers, we are digitally transforming how we design, test and manufacture the next generation of systems. And you've heard our customers acknowledge the results, particularly with some of the largest programs, including B-21 and GBSD. We are marrying our world-class engineering talent with the latest digital tools, machine learning and agile principles.

    另一個例子是我們如何使用技術為我們的客戶生產創新且負擔得起的解決方案。為此,我們正在投資於數字設計能力和先進的製造設施。通過與客戶的密切合作,我們正在以數字方式改變我們設計、測試和製造下一代系統的方式。您已經聽說我們的客戶認可這些結果,特別是對於一些最大的項目,包括 B-21 和 GBSD。我們正在將我們的世界級工程人才與最新的數字工具、機器學習和敏捷原則結合起來。

  • And as we announced this quarter, we are also investing in factories of the future, including our state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in West Virginia, which will incorporate the latest in digital manufacturing, automation and modular work cells. Once operational in 2024, this facility will support production of up to 600 strike missiles per year, optimizing quality and reducing cost and cycle time as well as bolstering tactical weapon supply chain capacity for our customers.

    正如我們本季度宣布的那樣,我們還在投資未來的工廠,包括我們在西弗吉尼亞州最先進的製造工廠,該工廠將採用最新的數字製造、自動化和模塊化工作單元。一旦在 2024 年投入運營,該設施將支持每年多達 600 枚打擊導彈的生產,優化質量,降低成本和周期時間,並為我們的客戶增強戰術武器供應鏈能力。

  • For the last few years, we've taken an enterprise-wide approach in mission-focused areas that are aligned with our customers' priorities. These are areas where we see opportunity to leverage our technology know-how and our domain expertise and tie capabilities from across our businesses.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們在與客戶的優先事項保持一致的以任務為中心的領域採取了企業範圍的方法。在這些領域,我們看到了利用我們的技術訣竅和我們的領域專業知識並與我們的業務聯繫能力的機會。

  • Today, I want to highlight a few of them and the related results we've seen so far this year. One example of this is in National Security Space. Our customers have made it clear that space underpins many missions vital to our national security. And we recognize that we need to think about space differently, as a rapidly evolving contested domain.

    今天,我想重點介紹其中的一些以及我們今年迄今為止看到的相關結果。這方面的一個例子是在國家安全領域。我們的客戶已經明確表示,太空是許多對我們國家安全至關重要的任務的基礎。我們認識到,我們需要以不同的方式思考空間,因為這是一個快速發展的有爭議的領域。

  • Given this, our focus is on providing space-based offerings that include a mix of exquisite solutions in combination with proliferated constellations of low earth orbit satellites, also known as LEOs, which together create a more resilient architecture. We've recently seen the benefits of this approach. For example, after the close of the second quarter, we received a $617 million contract for the SDA Tracking Layer, which is a LEO constellation of 14 satellites designed to provide global warning, tracking and targeting of advanced missile threats, including hypersonic missiles. This builds on the SDA Transport Layer contract we were awarded in February, which is also a LEO constellation of 42 satellites, providing resilience, low latency, high volume data transport in support of U.S. military missions around the world.

    鑑於此,我們的重點是提供基於空間的產品,其中包括精緻的解決方案與激增的低地球軌道衛星星座(也稱為 LEO)相結合,它們共同創造了一個更具彈性的架構。我們最近看到了這種方法的好處。例如,在第二季度結束後,我們收到了一份價值 6.17 億美元的 SDA 跟踪層合同,這是一個由 14 顆衛星組成的 LEO 星座,旨在為包括高超音速導彈在內的先進導彈威脅提供全球預警、跟踪和瞄準。這建立在我們在 2 月份獲得的 SDA 傳輸層合同的基礎上,該合同也是一個由 42 顆衛星組成的 LEO 星座,提供彈性、低延遲、大容量的數據傳輸,以支持美國在世界各地的軍事任務。

  • In addition to these, we booked another $700 million in Q2 in restricted space awards and now have $11.3 billion of restricted space backlog. We continue to see the national security space area as one of the strongest growth drivers for our company.

    除此之外,我們在第二季度又預訂了 7 億美元的受限空間獎勵,現在有 113 億美元的受限空間積壓。我們繼續將國家安全空間領域視為我們公司最強勁的增長動力之一。

  • Another focus area where we are pulling capability and expertise from across the portfolio is Missile Defense and counter hypersonics. In the second quarter, we were awarded a contract from the Missile Defense Agency to continue development of the Glide Phase Interceptor program. GPI will play a central role in ensuring the United States maintains the most reliable and advanced missile defense systems capable of outpacing and defeating evolving missile threats.

    我們從整個產品組合中汲取能力和專業知識的另一個重點領域是導彈防禦和反超音速。在第二季度,我們獲得了導彈防禦局的合同,繼續開發滑翔階段攔截器項目。 GPI 將在確保美國維持最可靠和最先進的導彈防禦系統方面發揮核心作用,該系統能夠超越和擊敗不斷演變的導彈威脅。

  • This complements our missile defense modernization work already underway on NGI, HBTSS and IBCS. We have also been supporting international customers to modernize their missile defense systems. For example, last week, we delivered the first of the six production IBCS engagement operation centers for Poland's medium-range air and missile defense system. Our capital deployment approach is also an important part of the strategy I just laid out for you.

    這補充了我們已經在 NGI、HBTSS 和 IBCS 上進行的導彈防禦現代化工作。我們還一直在支持國際客戶對其導彈防禦系統進行現代化改造。例如,上週,我們為波蘭的中程防空和導彈防禦系統交付了六個生產型 IBCS 交戰作戰中心中的第一個。我們的資本部署方法也是我剛剛為您制定的戰略的重要組成部分。

  • Our first priority is to invest in executing our business strategy. By investing in our factories, digital design tools and our people who are a key source of our technology leadership, we are creating long-term sustainable value. We also remain committed to returning at least 100% of free cash flow to shareholders this year. In the second quarter, we increased our dividend by 10%, marking our 19th consecutive annual increase.

    我們的首要任務是投資執行我們的業務戰略。通過投資我們的工廠、數字設計工具和作為我們技術領先地位的關鍵來源的員工,我們正在創造長期可持續的價值。我們還繼續致力於今年將至少 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。在第二季度,我們將股息增加了 10%,這是我們連續第 19 年增加股息。

  • Our new quarterly dividend will be nearly double the level we paid in the beginning of 2017. We are also returning capital to shareholders through stock repurchases, and we continue to target at least $1.5 billion in repurchases this year.

    我們新的季度股息將幾乎是我們在 2017 年初支付的水平的兩倍。我們還通過股票回購向股東返還資本,我們今年的回購目標仍然是至少 15 億美元。

  • Before Dave shares more details about our financial results, I'd like to briefly talk about the defense demand environment. We've seen a fundamental shift in global commitment of resources for defense and national security, particularly in Europe. Just this year, we've seen Finland and Sweden progress their membership in NATO and many European countries increase or state their plans to increase their defense budget.

    在 Dave 分享有關我們財務業績的更多細節之前,我想簡要談談國防需求環境。我們已經看到全球國防和國家安全資源承諾發生了根本性轉變,尤其是在歐洲。就在今年,我們看到芬蘭和瑞典在北約成員國中取得了進展,許多歐洲國家增加或宣布了增加國防預算的計劃。

  • The geopolitical environment has highlighted an increased requirement for defense and deterrence. In the U.S., this has also resulted in strong bipartisan support for defense spending. Recently, the Congressional Armed Services Committees marked up their version of the FY '23 defense bill with both providing bipartisan support for further increases in defense spending above the President's budget. For Northrop Grumman, the U.S. FY '23 base defense budget request included strong support for key programs like B-21, GBSD, NGI, IBCS, next-generation OPIR and Triton. And there is an opportunity for additional funding for G/ATOR, E-2D, F-35 and F-18 that we've seen in proposed plus-ups from Congress.

    地緣政治環境凸顯了對防禦和威懾的需求增加。在美國,這也導致了兩黨對國防開支的強烈支持。最近,國會軍事委員會標記了他們的 23 財年國防法案版本,為進一步增加超出總統預算的國防開支提供了兩黨支持。對於諾斯羅普·格魯曼來說,美國 23 財年的基地國防預算請求包括對 B-21、GBSD、NGI、IBCS、下一代 OPIR 和 Triton 等關鍵項目的大力支持。我們已經在國會提出的補充方案中看到了為 G/ATOR、E-2D、F-35 和 F-18 提供額外資金的機會。

  • But I will note that as has become the norm in recent years, there is a high probability of starting the fiscal year on a CR, so we have anticipated this in our outlook for 2022. The budget is a strong reflection of the alignment of our company with our customers and reinforces my confidence that we are well positioned for this environment.

    但我要指出,正如近年來的常態那樣,在 CR 開始財政年度的可能性很高,因此我們在 2022 年的展望中已經預見到了這一點。預算強烈反映了我們的一致性與我們的客戶合作,並增強了我對我們在這種環境下處於有利地位的信心。

  • So with that, I'll turn the call over to Dave, and then I'll have a few closing remarks before we turn to Q&A. Dave?

    因此,我將把電話轉給戴夫,然後在我們轉向問答之前我會做一些結束語。戴夫?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Okay. Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone.

    好的。謝謝,凱西,大家早上好。

  • Overall, this was another solid quarter with similar themes to Q1. Near-term supply side pressures and a tight labor market have persisted but the demand environment continues to be quite strong with outstanding awards and backlog growth, driven by alignment with our customers' highest priorities, setting the stage for longer-term success.

    總體而言,這是另一個與第一季度主題相似的穩健季度。近期供應方面的壓力和緊張的勞動力市場持續存在,但需求環境仍然相當強勁,在與我們客戶的最高優先事項保持一致的推動下,獲得了傑出的獎項和積壓的增長,為長期成功奠定了基礎。

  • We generated $13 billion of new awards in the second quarter, a higher volume than we had expected due to excellent competitive wins and timing of a few large awards, including the latest F-35 block in our Aeronautics Sector. Our year-to-date book-to-bill is now 1.22. As a result of our strong bookings, we now expect award volume to be approximately equal to sales for the full year, higher than our previous projections.

    我們在第二季度產生了 130 億美元的新獎項,比我們預期的要高,原因是出色的競爭勝利和一些大型獎項的時機,包括我們航空部門的最新 F-35 機型。我們年初至今的帳單到帳單現在是 1.22。由於我們的預訂量強勁,我們現在預計獎勵量將大約等於全年的銷售額,高於我們之前的預測。

  • While these new business metrics position us for growth going forward, our Q2 sales of $8.8 billion and first half sales in total came in slightly below our expectations as we continue to manage through global supply chain and labor market challenges.

    雖然這些新的業務指標為我們的未來增長奠定了基礎,但隨著我們繼續應對全球供應鍊和勞動力市場挑戰,我們的第二季度銷售額為 88 億美元,上半年總銷售額略低於我們的預期。

  • These first half results and current trends point toward a full year sales outlook near the low end of our guidance range, with Q3 sales slightly over $9 billion and Q4 in the mid-$9 billions. These figures represent much stronger year-over-year growth in the second half than the first, requiring continued expansion in headcount and material receipts. In Q2, we drove incremental improvements in hiring as the quarter progressed, adding nearly 1,000 net employees in Q2 after being down slightly in Q1.

    這些上半年結果和當前趨勢表明全年銷售前景接近我們指導範圍的低端,第三季度銷售額略高於 90 億美元,第四季度在 90 億美元左右。這些數字表明下半年的同比增長比上半年要強勁得多,需要繼續擴大員工人數和材料收入。在第二季度,隨著季度的進展,我們推動了招聘方面的逐步改善,在第一季度略有下降後,第二季度淨增加了近 1,000 名員工。

  • Our material receipts forecast is also weighted toward the second half of the year based on timing of program demand. These factors, along with our growing backlog, provides the foundation for faster revenue growth rates in the second half of the year, and we expect that momentum to continue into 2023.

    我們的材料收入預測也根據計劃需求的時間向下半年加權。這些因素,加上我們不斷增長的積壓訂單,為下半年更快的收入增長率奠定了基礎,我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2023 年。

  • Even with temporal top line headwinds, our execution remained strong in the quarter. Segment margins were 12.2%, in line with the high level from Q2 of last year. Driving cost efficiencies and keeping a laser focus on performance are key elements of our strategy. These will be particularly important efforts in a higher inflationary environment than we've experienced in recent years. It starts by negotiating good business terms and delivering strong program performance, but it doesn't end there.

    即使有暫時的頂線逆風,我們在本季度的執行力仍然強勁。分部利潤率為 12.2%,與去年第二季度的高水平一致。提高成本效率並保持對性能的高度關注是我們戰略的關鍵要素。在比我們近年來經歷的更高的通脹環境中,這些努力將是特別重要的。它從談判良好的業務條款和提供強大的計劃績效開始,但並不止於此。

  • It also includes driving affordability in our rates, having a disciplined approach to risk management and optimizing our cost structure. For example, in the quarter, we sold a property in Bethpage, New York and recognized a $38 million gain.

    它還包括提高我們的費率的可承受性,採用嚴格的風險管理方法和優化我們的成本結構。例如,在本季度,我們出售了紐約貝思佩奇的一處房產,並獲得了 3800 萬美元的收益。

  • Continuing with our Q2 results, diluted earnings per share in the quarter were $6.06, down 6% compared to the second quarter of last year. EPS was lower, largely due to non-operational items. Unfavorable returns on our marketable securities and lower net pension income contributed headwinds of $0.60 compared to Q2 of last year. And while our 17.7% tax rate was lower than last year, it was above Q1 and our full year expectation for 2022.

    繼續我們的第二季度業績,該季度的攤薄後每股收益為 6.06 美元,與去年第二季度相比下降了 6%。每股收益較低,主要是由於非經營性項目。與去年第二季度相比,我們有價證券的不利回報和較低的養老金淨收入造成了 0.60 美元的逆風。雖然我們 17.7% 的稅率低於去年,但高於第一季度和我們對 2022 年的全年預期。

  • Turning to full year guidance. I'll start with a few updates to our sector estimates. Our Space business continues to deliver excellent sales growth and bookings, including another quarter of record backlog, demonstrating the diversity of capabilities that we bring to market. As a result, we're again increasing its sales guidance to the high $11 billion range. At DS, we're tweaking our full year expectations to the mid-$5 billions based on a slower ramp on certain programs as well as broader staffing challenges.

    轉向全年指導。我將從對我們行業估計的一些更新開始。我們的太空業務繼續實現出色的銷售增長和預訂,包括另外四分之一的創紀錄的積壓,展示了我們為市場帶來的能力的多樣性。因此,我們再次將其銷售指導提高到 110 億美元的高位。在 DS,我們正在將全年預期調整至 50 億美元左右,原因是某些計劃的增長放緩以及更廣泛的人員配備挑戰。

  • For operating margin rate, we are increasing our estimates at AS, DS and MS based on their strong year-to-date results. Offsetting these increases are a reduction in the Space OM rate to approximately 10% based on better-than-expected success in winning new development programs.

    對於營業利潤率,我們正在根據 AS、DS 和 MS 的強勁年初至今業績增加我們的估計。抵消這些增長的原因是空間 OM 率降低到大約 10%,這是基於在贏得新開發項目方面取得的好於預期的成功。

  • And at the company level, we're maintaining our full year guidance ranges for sales, segment margin rate, EPS and cash. Within those ranges, we currently expect that any softness in sales is likely to be offset by margin strength.

    在公司層面,我們維持全年銷售額、部門利潤率、每股收益和現金的指導範圍。在這些範圍內,我們目前預計銷售的任何疲軟都可能被利潤率的強勁所抵消。

  • Embedded in our earnings per share outlook are a few moving pieces. First, our corporate unallocated costs are now projected to be $210 million, down $60 million from our prior estimates. This is due to favorable state tax trends and other lower corporate expenses. We're also projecting modestly lower net interest expense. Offsetting these benefits is an unfavorable impact from our marketable securities that we've experienced year-to-date. There are no incremental mark-to-market impacts assumed in our guidance for the second half of the year.

    在我們的每股收益展望中嵌入了一些動人的因素。首先,我們的企業未分配成本現在預計為 2.1 億美元,比我們之前的估計減少了 6000 萬美元。這是由於有利的州稅趨勢和其他較低的公司費用。我們還預計淨利息費用將小幅降低。抵消這些好處的是我們今年迄今為止經歷的有價證券的不利影響。我們在下半年的指引中沒有假設按市值計價的增量影響。

  • As we noted last quarter regarding corporate unallocated costs, we continue to project a one-time spike in state taxes recognized in the quarter in which the R&D tax amortization law is deferred. With respect to cash, second quarter free cash flow was an outflow of $460 million. Absent the cash taxes paid associated with R&D amortization, our free cash flow would have been roughly breakeven compared with the high hundreds of millions of dollars in an average Q2. A good portion of this delta was due to several large program collections expected toward the end of Q2 that were instead collected in Q3, including about $300 million collected on the first working day of July.

    正如我們在上個季度就企業未分配成本所指出的那樣,我們繼續預計在推遲研發稅攤銷法的季度確認的州稅會出現一次性飆升。在現金方面,第二季度的自由現金流流出了 4.6 億美元。如果沒有支付與研發攤銷相關的現金稅,與第二季度平均數億美元的高額相比,我們的自由現金流將大致達到收支平衡。這一增量的很大一部分是由於預計在第二季度末收集到的幾個大型計劃收款,而這些收款卻在第三季度收集,其中包括在 7 月的第一個工作日收集的約 3 億美元。

  • The seasonality of our collections and disbursements is such that the second half of the year is expected to generate much stronger cash flows than the first. But as always, we'll need to keep our focus on execution and drive further working capital efficiencies to offset any ongoing timing issues and achieve our outlook. Our guidance continues to include two scenarios: one based on current tax law and a deferral scenario predicated on receiving refunds for payments made to date.

    我們收款和支出的季節性使得下半年預計將產生比上半年強得多的現金流。但與往常一樣,我們需要繼續專注於執行並進一步提高營運資金效率,以抵消任何持續存在的時間問題並實現我們的前景。我們的指導繼續包括兩種情況:一種基於現行稅法,另一種基於收到迄今為止已付款的退款的延期情況。

  • Next, I wanted to take a moment to talk about our pension plans. Last quarter, I mentioned that while our pension plans contribute a component of our GAAP earnings, the FAS/CAS income is non-operational and not something we consider when assessing the company's performance. Slide 11 in our earnings deck provides an illustration of the pension headwind on GAAP earnings that we've experienced so far this year.

    接下來,我想花點時間談談我們的養老金計劃。上個季度,我提到雖然我們的養老金計劃為我們的 GAAP 收入貢獻了一部分,但 FAS/CAS 收入是非經營性的,我們在評估公司業績時不會考慮這些收入。我們收益甲板中的幻燈片 11 說明了我們今年迄今為止所經歷的 GAAP 收益的養老金逆風。

  • As we look toward next year, we would expect this headwind to grow based on recent volatility in the financial markets. Year-to-date, our asset performance has been below our long-term expected rate of return and discount rates have had a historic rise. Of course, our pension plans aren't unique in experiencing these macroeconomic trends. If we snap the line at quarter end, these market conditions would translate to significantly lower net pension income going forward, primarily in the nonoperating FAS pension line. Partially offsetting this GAAP earnings headwind would be a modest increase in projected CAS recoveries, but our required cash contributions would remain very low for the next several years, and our funded status remains healthy at over 96%.

    當我們展望明年時,我們預計這種逆風將基於近期金融市場的波動而增長。年初至今,我們的資產表現一直低於我們的長期預期回報率,貼現率出現歷史性上升。當然,我們的養老金計劃在經歷這些宏觀經濟趨勢方面並不是獨一無二的。如果我們在季度末取消這條線,這些市場狀況將轉化為未來的淨養老金收入顯著降低,主要是在非經營性 FAS 養老金線中。部分抵消這一 GAAP 收益逆風將是預計 CAS 回收的適度增加,但我們所需的現金貢獻在未來幾年將保持非常低,我們的資金狀況保持健康,超過 96%。

  • So while the GAAP earnings impact could be a headwind, from a cash or economic perspective, the changes would be modestly favorable. A lot can change in the financial markets over the course of the year, so we'll wait to provide more specific multiyear projections until later in the year. I'd point you to the pension sensitivity table that we provided in our January earnings deck for your modeling purposes.

    因此,雖然 GAAP 收益影響可能是不利因素,但從現金或經濟角度來看,這些變化將是適度有利的。在這一年中,金融市場可能會發生很多變化,因此我們將等到今年晚些時候再提供更具體的多年預測。我會向您指出我們在 1 月份的收益表中為您的建模目的提供的養老金敏感度表。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call back over to you, Kathy.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給你,凱西。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Thanks, Dave. So in summary, demand remains robust, and we saw outstanding bookings and backlog growth in the quarter and year-to-date. This demand is creating momentum that supports our expectation for accelerating growth for the remainder of this year and into next. Additionally, our capital deployment strategy is aimed at supporting long-term growth and creating value for our shareholders. We believe the investments we are making today in digital tools and factories of the future are already enabling stronger program performance and contributing to our operating results.

    謝謝,戴夫。因此,總而言之,需求仍然強勁,我們看到本季度和年初至今的出色預訂和積壓增長。這種需求正在創造動力,支持我們對今年剩餘時間和明年加速增長的預期。此外,我們的資本部署戰略旨在支持長期增長並為我們的股東創造價值。我們相信,我們今天對未來數字工具和工廠的投資已經能夠實現更強大的項目績效並為我們的經營業績做出貢獻。

  • So I'm incredibly proud of the Northrop Grumman team as we execute our strategy and position the company for long-term success. So with that, we're ready for Q&A.

    因此,我為諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊感到無比自豪,因為我們正在執行我們的戰略並將公司定位為長期成功。因此,我們已準備好進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Our first question will come from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

    我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

  • Mariana Perez Mora - Research Analyst

    Mariana Perez Mora - Research Analyst

  • This is Mariana Perez Mora on for Ron today. So on labor. Most of the industry is experiencing significant pressure from a tight labor market. And it seems that you are managing these challenges better and even seen some improvements in the second half. Could you please describe and give us some color on what are you doing to navigate these challenges?

    今天是 Ron 的 Mariana Perez Mora。所以說勞動。大多數行業正面臨勞動力市場緊張的巨大壓力。而且看起來你更好地應對了這些挑戰,甚至在下半年看到了一些改進。您能否描述一下您為應對這些挑戰所做的工作並給我們一些顏色?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Well, thanks, Mariana. We absolutely have seen labor headwinds in the first half. But as we noted in our comments, we are starting to see those ease in the latter part of the second quarter and even the results that we're seeing in July so far. And what we're doing is aggressively across the enterprise, working both hiring and retention efforts. It is an all-hands-on-deck strategy to ensure that people know that Northrop Grumman is growing and hiring. And we are having good success in attracting people to our company. We've also been taking actions to retain the talent that we have, and that has really started to take traction.

    好吧,謝謝,瑪麗安娜。我們絕對看到了上半年的勞動力逆風。但正如我們在評論中指出的那樣,我們開始在第二季度後期看到這些緩解,甚至是我們在 7 月份看到的結果。我們正在做的是在整個企業中積極地進行招聘和保留工作。這是一個全方位的策略,以確保人們知道諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司正在成長和招聘。我們在吸引人們加入我們公司方面取得了很大的成功。我們也一直在採取行動來留住我們擁有的人才,這已經真正開始受到關注。

  • I will also say that the market conditions play a significant role in any company's ability to hire and retain -- and we've seen the market conditions start to soften. You can't pick up a newspaper or read an article online these days without seeing a company that's talking about hiring freezes or even layoffs. And so that will have an impact on the labor market, and we expect continued softening as a result of that in the second half, which leads us to feel more confident that the second half will look more like our prepandemic experience than what we've experienced in the last 6 to 12 months.

    我還要說,市場狀況對任何公司的招聘和留住能力都起著重要作用——我們已經看到市場狀況開始疲軟。這些天你不能在沒有看到一家談論凍結招聘甚至裁員的公司的情況下拿起報紙或在線閱讀文章。因此,這將對勞動力市場產生影響,我們預計下半年將繼續疲軟,這使我們更有信心,下半年看起來更像是我們的大流行前經歷,而不是我們所經歷的在過去 6 到 12 個月內經歷過。

  • Mariana Perez Mora - Research Analyst

    Mariana Perez Mora - Research Analyst

  • Perfect. And then on supply chain, how -- or what kind of tools do you have to improve your visibility or material lead times? Do you have flexibility to reach out long-term agreements in advance or increasing inventories to provide any potential future disruptions?

    完美的。然後在供應鏈上,您必須如何或使用哪種工具來提高您的知名度或材料交貨時間?您是否可以靈活地提前達成長期協議或增加庫存以提供任何潛在的未來中斷?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Well, we do have those tools available to us. But what I would say is, I know you've heard from a host of manufacturing, including peers in aerospace and defense industry this week. That we're seeing longer lead times, which impact timing of sales. And I believe those are a result of numerous factors, but notably the labor availability we were just speaking about -- so as we noted earlier in the call, we do expect the labor market to soften a bit.

    好吧,我們確實有這些工具可供我們使用。但我想說的是,我知道你已經從許多製造業聽到了消息,包括本週航空航天和國防工業的同行。我們看到更長的交貨時間,這會影響銷售時間。我相信這是許多因素的結果,尤其是我們剛剛談到的勞動力可用性——所以正如我們在電話會議早些時候指出的那樣,我們確實預計勞動力市場會有所走軟。

  • And while it will still be a headwind in the second half, we don't see it being the same degree that it would be in the first half. And I'm basing this on the fact that we are deeply embedded with our suppliers. We have Northrop Grumman people on site with them. And so we believe we have a good handle on material timing delivery for the rest of the year, and we've incorporated that into our thinking, but of course, it's based on what we know today.

    儘管下半場仍將是逆風,但我們認為其程度與上半場不同。我基於這樣一個事實,即我們深深地融入了我們的供應商。我們在現場有諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的員工。因此,我們相信我們在今年餘下的時間裡可以很好地處理材料的時間交付,我們已經將其納入我們的想法,但當然,這是基於我們今天所知道的。

  • And as we've seen in the last 12 months, COVID flare ups, component demand fluctuations and a variety of smaller issues can cost an estimating volatility and around timing of supply. So our teams are managing this well.

    正如我們在過去 12 個月中所看到的那樣,COVID 爆發、組件需求波動和各種較小的問題可能會導致估計波動和供應時間問題。所以我們的團隊管理得很好。

  • I feel like we have done this exceptionally well in the first half. While we were slightly short of our own revenue projections for Q2, which we said would be about 24.5% at the midpoint of our guide, that was very tight estimating variability in a very challenging market. So we have very detailed reviews of material timing. We're working mitigation strategies on a daily basis, and we have a handle on what we need to deliver in the second half. Dave, anything you would add?

    我覺得我們在上半場做得非常好。雖然我們略低於我們自己對第二季度的收入預測,我們說在我們的指導中點約為 24.5%,但在一個非常具有挑戰性的市場中,這是非常嚴格的估計可變性。因此,我們對材料時間安排進行了非常詳細的審查。我們每天都在製定緩解策略,我們已經掌握了下半年需要交付的內容。戴夫,你有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • I think that's well characterized, Kathy, at a program level, in addition to being confident in our ability to deliver more in the second half, the timing of demand is also more weighted toward the second half of this year as opposed to last year when the demand timing at a program level happened to be a bit more weighted toward the first half of the year. So that too contributes to the stronger year-over-year growth outlook for the second half of this year.

    凱西,我認為這是一個很好的特點,在計劃層面,除了對我們在下半年交付更多產品的能力充滿信心外,與去年相比,今年下半年的需求時機也更加重要計劃層面的需求時間恰好在今年上半年更加重要。因此,這也有助於今年下半年更強勁的同比增長前景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Richard Safran from Seaport Global.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Global 的 Richard Safran。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • So, I wanted to ask you about the news, the FTC is making about Orbital. You probably were expecting this, at least I would guess. This was initially brought out when Lockheed was buying Aerojet. So I want to know if you could briefly talk to the issues that the FTC is focusing on. If you could discuss what the range of outcomes might be? And I know it's always a bit difficult, but if you could speculate on the impact? Any comment you would give there would be appreciated.

    所以,我想問你這個消息,FTC 正在製作關於 Orbital 的消息。你可能已經預料到了,至少我會猜到。這最初是在洛克希德收購 Aerojet 時提出的。所以我想知道你是否可以簡單談談 FTC 關注的問題。如果您可以討論結果的範圍可能是什麼?我知道這總是有點困難,但如果你能推測一下影響?您將在那裡發表的任何評論將不勝感激。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thanks, Rich. So let me start by providing some context on the issue. We announced our intent to acquire Orbital ATK in 2018 and the Department of Defense and FTC spent many months looking at the pro competitive aspects of the deals, of which there are many and any anticompetitive risk before they approve the deal. And so during this period, the government identified only one concern, and it was around solid rocket motors.

    是的。謝謝,里奇。因此,讓我首先提供有關該問題的一些背景信息。我們在 2018 年宣布了收購 Orbital ATK 的意向,國防部和 FTC 花了幾個月的時間研究這些交易的競爭優勢,在他們批准交易之前,存在許多反競爭風險。所以在此期間,政府只確定了一個問題,那就是固體火箭發動機。

  • And so we agreed to a Consent Order to address that concern. Over the past 4 years, we've executed an extensive compliance program and worked with the government very closely in line with the terms of the Order. So we believe we've been and we continue to be in compliance with the Order. The FTC did raise one matter they were investigating a few years ago. But to our knowledge, that investigation has not concluded. And we've shared the -- this in our 10-K and 10-Q filings, so you can refer to those for the details of that particular matter.

    因此,我們同意了一份同意令來解決這個問題。在過去的 4 年中,我們執行了一項廣泛的合規計劃,並根據命令的條款與政府密切合作。因此,我們相信我們一直並且我們將繼續遵守該命令。 FTC 確實提出了他們幾年前正在調查的一件事情。但據我們所知,該調查尚未結束。我們已經在我們的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中分享了這一點,因此您可以參考這些文件以了解該特定問題的詳細信息。

  • And now to the point of your question, I know there's been some recent speculation both on the status of that investigation and a broad range of possible next steps that the government might attempt to take. But I'll say that we don't see merit or precedent for most of those scenarios. And we continue to maintain that we don't believe this matter will have a material adverse impact to our company. So I won't speculate on what the size will be because we believe it could be zero and certainly isn't material.

    現在說到你的問題,我知道最近有一些關於調查狀態和政府可能嘗試採取的廣泛後續步驟的猜測。但我要說的是,我們看不到大多數情況的優點或先例。我們繼續堅持認為,我們認為這件事不會對我們公司產生重大不利影響。所以我不會推測大小會是多少,因為我們相信它可能是零,當然不是實質性的。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • Okay. That helps. As a quick follow-up here. On your comments about international, I want to know if you could expand a little bit on that. What type of equipment are you getting the most interest for? Could you discuss a little bit about the timing, how that's going to translate to the -- and flow into the P&L. And then just look a bit old school here with increasing international demand, we should expect more higher-margin commercial contracting? I just want to know if that's -- if you think that's the case?

    好的。這有幫助。作為這裡的快速跟進。關於您對國際的評論,我想知道您是否可以對此進行一些擴展。您對哪種類型的設備最感興趣?您能否討論一下時間安排,這將如何轉化為 - 並流入損益表。然後,隨著國際需求的增加,這裡看起來有點老派,我們應該期待更多利潤率更高的商業承包嗎?我只是想知道是不是——如果你認為是這樣?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Rich. This is Dave. I'll take that one. We've gotten a lot of questions in the last few months given the evolving geopolitical global situation about near-term impacts. I think the reality is in a business as long cycle as ours, these things take time to have an impact. And we are certainly engaged with U.S. and international customers talking about areas of particular demand -- we mentioned products like IBCS on the call today. I would say mission areas like missile defense are a particular international interest, as you'd expect.

    謝謝,里奇。這是戴夫。我會拿那個。鑑於全球地緣政治局勢不斷演變,有關近期影響,我們在過去幾個月收到了很多問題。我認為現實是在一個像我們這樣長的周期中,這些事情需要時間才能產生影響。我們當然會與談論特定需求領域的美國和國際客戶進行接觸——我們在今天的電話會議上提到了像 IBCS 這樣的產品。正如你所料,我會說像導彈防禦這樣的任務領域是一個特別的國際利益。

  • But it will take time for those things to have a financial impact. And so I'd hesitate to project in any specifics what that may be in the near term. It's something we'll keep you apprised of over the next several years as those opportunities become reality.

    但這些事情需要時間才能產生財務影響。所以我會猶豫在任何細節上預測短期內可能會發生什麼。隨著這些機會成為現實,我們將在接下來的幾年內讓您了解這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • When you look at Aeronautics, this has been complicated given a lot of mature programs ramping down, B-21 going up, F-35, but in Q2, if we take out the land sale gain, margins were well below 10%, revenues were low as well, which really -- it looks like it makes H2 pretty challenging. Can you talk about how you see the path to guidance in H2?

    當您查看航空業時,考慮到許多成熟的項目逐漸減少,B-21 上升,F-35,這變得很複雜,但是在第二季度,如果我們扣除土地銷售收益,利潤率遠低於 10%,收入也很低,這真的 - 看起來它讓 H2 非常具有挑戰性。您能談談您如何看待 H2 中的指導路徑嗎?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure, I'm happy to touch on that one, Doug. In the first quarter, we had an unusually high volume of favorable net EACs, in the second quarter net EACs were light. This is the typical nature of a business like Aeronautics, where there is quarterly fluctuation. But in aggregate, we have even a slightly stronger outlook for the year, as we described earlier on the margin rate side than we did previously.

    當然,我很高興談到那個,道格。第一季度,我們的有利淨 EAC 數量異常高,第二季度淨 EAC 數量較少。這是像航空業這樣的企業的典型性質,其中存在季度波動。但總的來說,正如我們之前在保證金率方面所描述的那樣,我們對今年的前景甚至比以前更強勁。

  • So you need to look through and look past quarterly fluctuations in net EACs and toward the overall outlook. On the sales side, that net EAC fluctuation rolls through sales as well. And so I'd note that it was relatively stable in the first and second quarter. AS is another business, as we described earlier in our comments where we see a higher volume of material receipts projected in the second half than the first. And so I think, a reasonable second half ramp from where we are today and very consistent with the projections we've been providing for a couple of quarters now.

    因此,您需要仔細查看淨 EAC 的季度波動和整體前景。在銷售方面,EAC 的淨波動也會影響銷售。所以我注意到它在第一季度和第二季度相對穩定。 AS 是另一項業務,正如我們之前在評論中所描述的,我們預計下半年的材料收入將高於上半年。所以我認為,從我們今天的情況來看,下半年的增長是合理的,並且與我們現在提供的幾個季度的預測非常一致。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • And well, as a follow-up, if I switch over to Space, I mean your backlog there is now $39 billion. I mean it's a huge backlog. And I know you've got some pretty good revenue growth forecast here. But how should we look at the conversion of that backlog in terms of timing? How should we see that conversion move to revenues over the years here?

    好吧,作為後續,如果我切換到太空,我的意思是你的積壓現在有 390 億美元。我的意思是這是一個巨大的積壓。我知道你在這裡有一些不錯的收入增長預測。但是我們應該如何看待這個積壓的轉換時間呢?我們應該如何看待這些年來轉化為收入的轉變?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure. We're -- as you mentioned, we're incredibly pleased with the backlog growth, the award volume that we've had in Space, programs like both the Transport and Tracking Layers of the SDA architecture are great examples there of work we're doing, really at multiple layers with multiple products supporting multiple mission areas in the national security and civilian space markets.

    當然。我們 - 正如你所提到的,我們對積壓的增長感到非常滿意,我們在太空中獲得的獎勵數量,像 SDA 架構的傳輸和跟踪層這樣的項目都是我們工作的很好的例子'重新做,真正在多個層次上使用多種產品支持國家安全和民用空間市場的多個任務領域。

  • In terms of how that backlog then breaks down in terms of award volume over time -- or sales volume over time, it's been our fastest-growing business, and we anticipate that it will continue to be our fastest-growing business and not just in any one program, GBSD is obviously a large contributor to its growth last year and this year. But the growth is much broader based. And so while GBSD has grown about $0.5 billion in our '22 estimates and should show similar growth in '23, we would anticipate a similar volume of growth outside of GBSD going forward. And our growth outside of GBSD for this year is actually exceeding GBSD's growth on a dollar basis in Space. So really broad-based outstanding growth, not just in backlog, but to your point in converting to sales as well.

    就隨著時間的推移,積壓的獎勵數量或銷售量如何分解而言,這是我們增長最快的業務,我們預計它將繼續成為我們增長最快的業務,而不僅僅是在任何一個程序,GBSD 顯然是其去年和今年增長的重要貢獻者。但增長的基礎要廣泛得多。因此,雖然 GBSD 在我們 22 年的估計中增長了約 5 億美元,並且應該在 23 年顯示出類似的增長,但我們預計未來 GBSD 之外的增長量也會相似。今年我們在 GBSD 之外的增長實際上超過了 GBSD 在太空中的美元增長。因此,基礎廣泛的出色增長不僅在積壓中,而且在您轉化為銷售方面也是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. So you and your partner on NGI were selected for the Glide Phase Interceptor. That's an interceptor, NGI is an interceptor, are there any read-acrosses in terms of having won this that would make you better positioned for NGI if it goes sole source? And what do you think the chances are it goes dual source?

    是的。因此,您和您在 NGI 上的合作夥伴被選為 Glide Phase Interceptor。那是一個攔截器,NGI 是一個攔截器,是否有任何關於贏得這場比賽的交叉閱讀,如果 NGI 成為唯一來源,這會讓你更好地為 NGI 定位?你認為雙源的可能性有多大?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • So Cai, a very insightful question as always. And I would say that certainly, it is beneficial to be supporting multiple like missions and understanding, therefore, how these systems can draw from a common technology base. Given both are in competition I won't say anything more than that, and I'm sure you respect that. In terms of what does this mean more broadly, I would simply say that missile defense is an area of great importance, not only in the U.S. but internationally. And as I outlined in my comments, we're taking a broad enterprise approach to thinking about how we best bring the capabilities of Northrop Grumman to bear on all of these opportunities.

    所以蔡,一如既往的一個非常有見地的問題。我會說,支持多個類似的任務和理解這些系統如何從一個共同的技術基礎中汲取靈感當然是有益的。鑑於兩者都在競爭中,我不會說更多,我相信你會尊重這一點。就這更廣泛的含義而言,我只想說導彈防禦是一個非常重要的領域,不僅在美國,而且在國際上。正如我在評論中概述的那樣,我們正在採取廣泛的企業方法來思考我們如何最好地利用諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的能力來應對所有這些機會。

  • And so we feel we're positioned well to support what the government needs. I do think there is a balanced view, however, that we need a broad industrial base in all of our missile defense programs. And so I expect that there is some appetite to carry forward multiple providers for longer as we are seeing in NGI. That down-select won't happen until 2025 likely and to your point, may extend even further or go dual-source. And we think that is supportive of Northrop Grumman growth no matter how it goes. And we just support the government in making those decisions about what's best for their industrial base capacity.

    因此,我們認為我們能夠很好地支持政府的需求。然而,我確實認為有一個平衡的觀點,即我們在所有導彈防禦計劃中都需要一個廣泛的工業基礎。因此,正如我們在 NGI 中看到的那樣,我預計會有更多的意願將多個供應商推進更長時間。這種向下選擇可能要到 2025 年才會發生,就您而言,可能會進一步擴大或採用雙源。我們認為,無論發展如何,這都會支持諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的增長。我們只是支持政府做出最適合其工業基礎能力的決定。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • And secondly, you also had a number of wins you alluded to in the LEO area. Can you -- as you look at the second half, are there any major opportunities we should keep our eye on competitive bids?

    其次,你在 LEO 領域也有一些你提到的勝利。您能否 - 當您查看下半年時,是否有任何重大機會我們應該關注競爭性投標?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • There are a few, mostly what we see in the second half of new awards. And as Dave pointed out, we do expect now book to bill to be close to one, which is an improvement over our outlook at the beginning of the year because we've been having more success in competitive awards like the two I mentioned with SDA than we had anticipated. But as we look to the second half of the year, not as much competitive to be awarded more sole source, we see about $1.5 billion of new awards in restricted within AS, about the same in Space. We do have a fairly significant competitive award that we're expecting any day in Space, it's in the $1 billion class and then a lot of smaller things that add up to our full year expectation of close to 1 book to bill.

    有一些,主要是我們在新獎項的下半年看到的。正如 Dave 指出的那樣,我們確實預計現在的預定賬單將接近 1,這比我們年初的前景有所改善,因為我們在競爭性獎項中取得了更大的成功,比如我在 SDA 中提到的兩個獎項超出我們的預期。但當我們展望今年下半年,獲得更多單一來源的競爭不那麼激烈時,我們看到大約 15 億美元的新獎項在 AS 內受限,在太空中大致相同。我們確實有一個相當重要的競爭獎項,我們期待在太空中的任何一天,它是 10 億美元級別的,然後是很多較小的東西,加起來我們全年預計接近 1 本書要收費。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • You mentioned earlier that there's been a fundamental shift in U.S. and European support for defense spending. And historically, when the economic environment is weaker and other federal budgets emerge, defense budgets have come under pressure. So what's different this time? And how long do you think the support for defense will persist?

    您之前提到美國和歐洲對國防開支的支持發生了根本性轉變。從歷史上看,當經濟環境疲軟和其他聯邦預算出現時,國防預算就會面臨壓力。那麼這次有什麼不同呢?您認為對國防的支持會持續多久?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Thanks for the question, Kristine. I was just in Europe a few weeks ago. And I would say that I see truly a fundamental shift in recognizing the threat environment is real, and it's now, right? I think in recent years, within Europe, there's been a sense that we're working toward a longer-term threat horizon and perhaps the pacing of national and defense security spending would have been appropriate in that environment, but the fact that the threat is more imminent is addressed in what you're seeing is planned or committed increases in defense spending across most of the European nations.

    謝謝你的問題,克里斯汀。幾週前我剛在歐洲。我想說的是,我確實看到了在認識到威脅環境是真實的方面發生了根本性的轉變,現在就是這樣,對吧?我認為近年來,在歐洲內部,有一種感覺是,我們正在朝著更長期的威脅視野努力,也許國家和國防安全支出的節奏在那種環境下是合適的,但事實上威脅是您所看到的計劃或承諾增加大多數歐洲國家的國防開支,解決了更迫在眉睫的問題。

  • That does take several years though to translate into specific needs, by plan, and sales for companies like ours. So I do expect that there might be some modulation based on broader economic factors and other spending priorities. But I don't see there being another inflection point back to a view that defense spending isn't a high priority. So I do see it being fairly enduring.

    不過,這確實需要幾年的時間才能轉化為像我們這樣的公司的特定需求、計劃和銷售。因此,我確實預計可能會根據更廣泛的經濟因素和其他支出優先事項進行一些調整。但我不認為有另一個轉折點回到國防開支不是高優先級的觀點。所以我確實認為它相當持久。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • And as a follow-up, how much urgency is there from your conversations with the customers to address the security landscape? And when do you think these demand signals might translate to revenue growth?

    作為後續行動,您與客戶的對話對解決安全形勢有多大緊迫性?您認為這些需求信號何時會轉化為收入增長?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Yes. So as I noted, despite the urgency, it does take generally at least 18 to 24 months to translate intent into specific programs aspirations, customer wanting to buy "x" quantity of certain systems in production. And it takes even a little longer if it's something that is not in production, if it's a developmental program. And so that can be 3, 4, 5 years. So as I think about the landscape in Europe, obviously, the time is now to be advising and sharing insights on what can address their highest priority demands just as we do with U.S. customers, but I don't see it having a material impact on revenues for us or other A&D companies in the next 18 months. So I'd say it's more in the 2024 time horizon that we would look for it to have a more material impact.

    是的。因此,正如我所指出的,儘管緊迫,通常至少需要 18 到 24 個月才能將意圖轉化為特定的程序願望,客戶希望購買“x”數量的某些生產系統。如果它不是在生產中的東西,如果它是一個開發項目,它甚至需要更長的時間。所以這可能是 3、4、5 年。因此,當我想到歐洲的情況時,顯然,現在是時候就如何解決他們最優先的需求提供建議和分享見解,就像我們對美國客戶所做的那樣,但我認為這不會對我們或其他 A&D 公司未來 18 個月的收入。所以我想說的是,在 2024 年的時間範圍內,我們會期待它產生更大的實質性影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard from Vertical.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical 的 Rob Stallard。

  • Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

    Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

  • Kathy, I just like to follow up actually on the question I asked you 3 months ago about inflation and fixed price contracts. I was wondering how things have evolved over the last quarter versus your expectations? And whether you are making any structural changes to the way you do business, considering we are in this higher inflation environment?

    凱西,我只是想跟進我 3 個月前問你的關於通貨膨脹和固定價格合同的問題。我想知道上個季度的情況與您的預期相比有何變化?考慮到我們處於這種高通脹環境中,您是否正在對您的業務方式進行任何結構性改變?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Yes, good question. So I would -- our today view is very much in line with what it was in the first quarter, and we certainly are not immune to impacts of inflation. So we're working with the government to quantify those impacts and work with them to mitigate them. And this includes ensuring that appropriate funding is available for the government program managers to acquire the systems needed to support national defense in this inflationary environment.

    是的,好問題。所以我會 - 我們今天的觀點與第一季度的情況非常一致,我們當然不能免受通貨膨脹的影響。因此,我們正在與政府合作,量化這些影響,並與他們一起減輕這些影響。這包括確保為政府項目經理提供適當的資金,以獲取在這種通貨膨脹環境下支持國防所需的系統。

  • And to that end, we're very pleased to see that Congress is including funding to offset inflation in their FY '23 budget markup. There are some structural characteristics of our business that naturally mitigate some of these impacts. Dave talked about the importance of deal structure.

    為此,我們很高興地看到國會在其 23 財年預算中加入了抵消通貨膨脹的資金。我們業務的一些結構特徵自然可以減輕其中的一些影響。戴夫談到了交易結構的重要性。

  • These are things like our mix of cost plus work versus fixed price, the relatively short contract duration of our fixed price contracts that allow us to renegotiate based on current conditions within 1 to 2 years, and in some cases, escalation clauses that allow us to reprice. As we are looking now at new deals that we're entering we are being more forceful in including those escalation clauses in our contract terms, making sure that we're matching our supplier terms with our overall contract terms as some examples of what we're doing differently to mitigate the impact.

    這些是我們的成本加工作與固定價格的組合,我們的固定價格合同的合同期限相對較短,允許我們在 1 到 2 年內根據當前條件重新談判,在某些情況下,升級條款允許我們重新定價。當我們現在正在研究我們正在進入的新交易時,我們正在更加有力地將這些升級條款包含在我們的合同條款中,確保我們將我們的供應商條款與我們的整體合同條款相匹配,作為我們的一些例子'重新採取不同的措施來減輕影響。

  • And then we also, within our organization are working to offset the impact. So this includes managing supply chain affordability, looking at second suppliers where we feel suppliers are not addressing affordability, reducing costs in our own areas of overhead costs, including the real estate footprint as we noted earlier today, so while inflation is something that we are managing on a daily basis, I would say we haven't seen a material impact to our financials so far this year, but we have to continue to be diligent to make sure that it doesn't become an impact. And we're watching very closely to see if inflation is starting to modulate. Our indications would be that, that is starting to happen, but we're watching the data just as you are.

    然後我們也在我們的組織內努力抵消影響。因此,這包括管理供應鏈的可負擔性,查看我們認為供應商沒有解決可負擔性問題的第二個供應商,降低我們自己的間接成本領域的成本,包括我們今天早些時候提到的房地產足跡,所以雖然通貨膨脹是我們所面臨的問題日常管理,我想說我們今年到目前為止還沒有看到對我們的財務產生重大影響,但我們必須繼續努力確保它不會產生影響。我們正在密切關注通脹是否開始調整。我們的跡像是,這已經開始發生,但我們正在像你們一樣關注數據。

  • Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

    Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

  • Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. There was a news report yesterday that the Air Force is looking to retire all its Global Hawks in, I think, 2027. I think is this in line with your expectations?

    好的。然後只是快速跟進。昨天有新聞報導說,空軍正在考慮在 2027 年退役所有的全球鷹。我認為這符合你的預期嗎?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • It is, and this is what we've been talking about for a while that the Global Hawk franchise would be phased out over time. And we -- yes, we were expecting this. And as you note, the Block 40s don't retire until 2027. So that's a bit out in the future and doesn't have an impact on any projections that we've outlined for this year or next, but it is in line with our longer-term expectations.

    確實如此,這就是我們一段時間以來一直在談論的,全球鷹特許經營權將隨著時間的推移逐步淘汰。我們——是的,我們期待這一點。正如您所注意到的,Block 40 直到 2027 年才會退役。所以這在未來有點過時,不會對我們為今年或明年概述的任何預測產生影響,但它符合我們的長期預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

    我們來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 的下一個問題。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe if we could just talk about the F-35 program, Kathy. How big is it today? And given some of the reset on production, how does that impact the cadence and outlook for Northrop? And what are some of the puts and takes just thinking about shifts on content and lead times within Mission versus AS.

    也許我們可以談談 F-35 計劃,凱西。今天有多大?考慮到生產方面的一些調整,這對諾斯羅普的節奏和前景有何影響?考慮一下 Mission 與 AS 中內容和交貨時間的變化,有哪些投入和投入。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • So Sheila, it continues to be about 10% of our annual sales in total across all aspects of our contribution to the program. As we have worked through our new contract for Lot 15 through 17, we have factored in the demand that Lockheed has for our components, and we still see our outlook for '22 and even into '23 intact as a result of the new expectations around demand. As we look over a longer period of time, we still see production being the lion's share of our revenue volume.

    所以希拉,在我們對該計劃的貢獻的各個方面,它仍然占我們年銷售額的 10% 左右。由於我們已經完成了 Lot 15 到 17 的新合同,我們已經考慮到洛克希德對我們組件的需求,由於圍繞新的預期,我們仍然看到我們對 22 年甚至 23 年的前景完好無損要求。隨著時間的推移,我們仍然認為生產在我們的收入中佔最大份額。

  • But sustainment is the fastest-growing element of our contribution to the program. And in Mission Systems, we have a combination of development and production because we're supporting the Block 4 upgrades. And that most notably is revenue support for Mission Systems even as we phase out of the DAS program, which also is in Mission Systems, we see Mission Systems revenue being fairly stable because of that increased volume around Block 4.

    但維持是我們對該計劃的貢獻中增長最快的元素。在任務系統中,我們將開發和生產相結合,因為我們支持 Block 4 升級。最值得注意的是對 Mission Systems 的收入支持,即使我們逐步退出 DAS 計劃,該計劃也在 Mission Systems 中,我們認為 Mission Systems 的收入相當穩定,因為在 Block 4 附近的數量增加。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe just a follow-up. You had some positive movement around IBCS, I think, first deliveries to Poland in the quarter. Maybe if you could remind us how you're sizing that program and timing to the Army versus other potential international opportunities.

    偉大的。然後也許只是一個後續行動。我認為,您在 IBCS 方面取得了一些積極進展,在本季度首次向波蘭交付。也許如果你能提醒我們你是如何確定陸軍計劃和時間安排與其他潛在的國際機會的。

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure. Happy to jump in on that one, Sheila. In aggregate, that you can think of that franchise in the 1% of sales range. But as you point out, they are important domestic and international components to that today and equally importantly, international opportunity going forward as well. Certainly, it's a critical mission set that our IBCS capability can meet by attaching a kind of previously disconnected sensors and shooters and bringing new capability to disparate systems, which is really central to the modern mission set, both domestically and abroad.

    當然。很高興加入那個,希拉。總的來說,您可以認為該特許經營權佔銷售範圍的 1%。但正如您所指出的,它們是當今重要的國內和國際組成部分,同樣重要的是,它們也是未來的國際機遇。當然,這是一個關鍵任務集,我們的 IBCS 能力可以通過連接一種以前斷開連接的傳感器和射擊器,並為不同的系統帶來新的能力,這對於國內外現代任務集來說確實是核心。

  • So we look for that to be a growing franchise. We're really pleased with the competitive awards of the past year. There should be some second half growth in the program. And again, it's a critical part of our Defense Systems franchise.

    因此,我們希望這是一個不斷增長的特許經營權。我們對過去一年的競爭獎項感到非常滿意。該計劃應該有一些下半年的增長。再說一次,它是我們國防系統專營權的關鍵部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Kathy, I think on the last call, you kind of endorsed the current consensus revenue estimate for 2023, which I think is around $38 billion. Is that still the right way to think about the revenue trajectory next year? And it would seem like you would be able to get there pretty much all on B-21 and GBSD growth. So are you assuming, what does the rest of the portfolio look like next year [excluding] (corrected by company after the call) B-21 and GBSD in terms of growth?

    凱西,我認為在最後一次電話會議上,你有點贊同目前對 2023 年的共識收入估計,我認為約為 380 億美元。這仍然是思考明年收入軌蹟的正確方法嗎?看起來你幾乎可以通過 B-21 和 GBSD 的增長達到目標。那麼您是否假設,明年投資組合的其餘部分會是什麼樣子[不包括](在電話會議後由公司更正)B-21 和 GBSD 在增長方面?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • So we continue to believe we can accelerate our growth rate next year toward the mid-single-digit range, which is how consensus is being developed. And so I would affirm that. And the demand environment is strong, as I outlined on the call, so that would provide some tailwinds. However, I would caution you just as I am thinking about this as we prepare to give you outlook and trends in October when we'll provide more detail that the supply side challenges that we are facing this year are real. And it depends on how they mitigate throughout the second half as to what that looks like going into 2023, and we certainly could be delivering higher revenue growth this year, if not for those supply side constraints.

    因此,我們仍然相信我們可以將明年的增長率加速到中個位數範圍,這就是正在形成共識的方式。所以我會肯定這一點。正如我在電話會議上概述的那樣,需求環境強勁,因此會帶來一些順風。但是,正如我正在考慮這個問題一樣,我會提醒您,因為我們準備在 10 月份為您提供前景和趨勢,屆時我們將提供更多細節,說明我們今年面臨的供應方面挑戰是真實的。這取決於他們在整個下半年如何緩解到 2023 年的情況,如果不是因為供應方面的限制,我們今年當然可以實現更高的收入增長。

  • So it really isn't a demand question. And to your point, the budgets are strong enough for us to have even further accelerated growth into 2023, but we need to be able to deliver on that growth with the labor and the materials. And so we're monitoring that very closely, and we'll have a better sense of what that looks like in October to be able to give you trend data into 2023.

    所以這真的不是一個需求問題。就您的觀點而言,預算足夠強大,我們可以進一步加速增長到 2023 年,但我們需要能夠通過勞動力和材料實現這一增長。因此,我們正在密切關注這一點,我們將更好地了解 10 月份的情況,以便能夠為您提供 2023 年的趨勢數據。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And Dave, thanks for the color on pension. Obviously with you guys, a lot of moving pieces with the mark-to-market and all of that. I think you had previously said FAS/CAS relatively, I think, in total, relatively flat in '23 versus '22. I mean are based on where things are today, I mean, can you help us at all? Are we looking at like a couple of hundred million dollar headwind '23 versus '22?

    好的。還有戴夫,感謝養老金的顏色。顯然,對於你們來說,有很多動人的作品都帶有按市值計價的所有這些。我認為您之前說過 FAS/CAS 相對而言,我認為總體而言,23 年與 22 年相比相對持平。我的意思是基於今天的情況,我的意思是,你能幫助我們嗎?我們是不是在看 23 年和 22 年的幾億美元逆風?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • I appreciate you raising that topic for a follow-up. We noted on the call that we direct your attention to the pension sensitivity slide we provide every January. So to give you a feel for the approximate impacts of an increase or decrease in a discount rate or a level of asset returns of a certain degree.

    感謝您提出該主題以進行後續跟進。我們在電話會議上註意到,我們將您的注意力引向我們每年一月提供的養老金敏感度幻燈片。因此,讓您了解折現率或一定程度的資產回報水平的增加或減少的大致影響。

  • The discount rate increase is the most significant effect that we would see on FAS/CAS income if the year were to end today, we've seen well over 100, perhaps even approaching 200 basis points of discount rate increase since the year began. And so as we noted in that sensitivity slide, every 25 basis points can have $1 billion or more impact on mark-to-market at the end of the year and a substantial impact on the FAS/CAS income going forward.

    如果今年在今天結束,貼現率增加是我們將看到的對 FAS/CAS 收入的最顯著影響,我們已經看到自年初以來貼現率增加了 100 多個,甚至可能接近 200 個基點。正如我們在該敏感度幻燈片中所指出的那樣,每 25 個基點可能對年底的按市值計價產生 10 億美元或更多的影響,並對未來的 FAS/CAS 收入產生重大影響。

  • Again, these are nonoperating GAAP earnings amounts. They're not cash flow drivers. If anything, as we noted, the CAS reimbursements are expected to tick up slightly. And so from an economic perspective, there's a small benefit there. From a GAAP earnings perspective, we'd draw your attention to the discount rate and asset return sensitivities. And of course, we'll see where the market moves over the next 6 months to give you a more final sense of the '23 FAS/CAS outlook.

    同樣,這些是非經營性 GAAP 收益金額。他們不是現金流的驅動力。如果有的話,正如我們所指出的,CAS 報銷預計會略有增加。所以從經濟角度來看,那裡有一點好處。從 GAAP 收益的角度來看,我們會提請您注意貼現率和資產回報敏感性。當然,我們將看到未來 6 個月市場的走勢,讓您對 '23 FAS/CAS 前景有更最終的了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Maybe just to keep everyone riveted, I'll ask a follow-up question on pension. And Dave, I wonder if you could talk about just thinking big picture and conceptually, we've seen Lockheed and their defined benefit plan and they're offloading a lot of their liability on to insurance companies. You guys still have DB. It's not huge. I think the service cost this year should be under $400 million. But when you think about what you want to do longer term, what makes most sense for Northrop, particularly as a government contractor and with the allowable cost framework, what do you want to do long term?

    也許只是為了讓每個人都著迷,我會問一個關於養老金的後續問題。戴夫,我想知道您是否可以談論從大局和概念上的想法,我們已經看到洛克希德和他們的固定福利計劃,他們正在將大量責任轉嫁給保險公司。你們還有DB。它不是很大。我認為今年的服務成本應該在 4 億美元以下。但是,當您考慮長期想做的事情時,什麼對諾斯羅普最有意義,特別是作為政府承包商和允許的成本框架,您想長期做什麼?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure. Thanks, Seth. So I would point out a few things. One, we've had outstanding returns on our pension assets over any period you look at historically, over the last 20 years, well above market return expectations. We're really proud of the value that, that has generated and the benefit that, that is both to the company and to our government customers. As a result, we are very well funded today. We talked about a 96% funded status level that fluctuates day-to-day, given market movements. But again, we're in slightly better funded position today than we were even as of the first of this year, given the changes in the interest rate environment, offset by the changes in the asset returns that you'd expect. So there's a lot of moving pieces under the surface.

    當然。謝謝,賽斯。所以我要指出幾點。第一,在過去 20 年的歷史上任何時期,我們的養老金資產都獲得了出色的回報,遠高於市場回報預期。我們真的為所產生的價值和對公司和我們的政府客戶帶來的好處感到自豪。因此,我們今天的資金充足。我們談到了 96% 的資金狀態水平,鑑於市場走勢,它每天都在波動。但同樣,鑑於利率環境的變化,我們今天的資金狀況比今年年初的情況要好一些,但被您預期的資產回報率的變化所抵消。所以在地表下有很多移動的部件。

  • But in aggregate, we don't today feel a burning need to make a change to our long-term strategy. It has been working. It's been a value to the company, to the participants and to the government. And as a result, it's certainly something we'll continue to assess over time. But at this point, we're pleased with asset returns over any long period of time, pleased with the funded status that results from that, and we'll continue to keep you apprised if there are any changes along the way.

    但總的來說,我們今天並不迫切需要改變我們的長期戰略。它一直在工作。這對公司、參與者和政府來說都是一種價值。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們肯定會繼續評估。但在這一點上,我們對任何長期的資產回報感到滿意,對由此產生的資金狀況感到滿意,如果在此過程中發生任何變化,我們將繼續通知您。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe to follow up, just on Aeronautics, I know you talked earlier about the kind of the absence of EACs in the quarter. I think they were a slight negative. I guess if we look back over the last several quarters. Given the size of the segment, the EACs in this segment seem relatively light relative to others. What programs kind of give you visibility on that picking up in the coming years? And when we think about how margin expansion in the segment over time, how does the framework of underlying margin versus EACs play into that?

    偉大的。然後可能會跟進,就航空而言,我知道你早些時候談到了本季度缺乏 EAC 的情況。我認為他們有點消極。我想如果我們回顧過去幾個季度。鑑於該細分市場的規模,該細分市場中的 EAC 相對於其他 EAC 似乎相對較輕。什麼樣的計劃能讓您了解未來幾年的發展趨勢?當我們考慮隨著時間的推移該細分市場的利潤率如何擴張時,基礎利潤率與 EAC 的框架如何發揮作用?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure. In aggregate, for a sector like AS, we would expect, in a typical year, to have a healthy underlying OM rate. And in a typical year, we would have some volume of favorable net EAC adjustments. Of course, at any given time, we don't know which programs those may come from because we've factored our risks and opportunities into our current EACs and we need to perform well and retire risks in order to drive those improvements in EACs.

    當然。總體而言,對於像 AS 這樣的行業,我們預計,在典型的一年中,潛在的 OM 率將保持健康。在典型的一年裡,我們會有一些有利的淨 EAC 調整。當然,在任何給定時間,我們都不知道這些可能來自哪些項目,因為我們已將風險和機遇納入當前的 EAC,我們需要表現良好並消除風險,以推動 EAC 的這些改進。

  • So I'd be reticent to be able to point to any particular program that we think will be a key or much less the key driver of EAC benefits over time. But certainly, within our restricted and unrestricted portfolios, we need to continue to execute well, drive efficiencies in every one of those programs and again, continue to have some volume of net EAC pickups on top of the healthy underlying segment OM rate in the business. It's a segment whose execution we're proud of with some critical programs, and we'll look to continue to build on that.

    因此,我不願指出任何我們認為隨著時間的推移將成為 EAC 收益的關鍵或更少的關鍵驅動因素的特定計劃。但可以肯定的是,在我們受限制和不受限制的投資組合中,我們需要繼續良好執行,提高每一個項目的效率,並且在業務中健康的基礎細分市場 OM 率之上繼續保持一定量的淨 EAC 回升.這是一個讓我們引以為豪的部分,其中一些關鍵項目的執行令我們感到自豪,我們將繼續在此基礎上再接再厲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Why is there currently such a large variance between the pace of DoD budget outlay versus DoD budget authorization?

    為什麼目前國防部預算支出的速度與國防部預算授權之間存在如此大的差異?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • So Noah, I honestly don't know why. I can speculate a few things that may be happening. One, as we are seeing these supply chain constraints, contracts may just not need additional funding, so it could just be a temporal issue of timing. Another is the labor constraints that we're facing, the government faces as well. So we have seen where some just shortage of people to get work done has impacted anything from outlays to invoice payment timing, but that would be speculation on my part.

    所以諾亞,我真的不知道為什麼。我可以推測一些可能發生的事情。一,當我們看到這些供應鏈限制時,合同可能只是不需要額外的資金,所以它可能只是時間的時間問題。另一個是我們面臨的勞動力限制,政府也面臨。因此,我們已經看到一些人只是缺乏完成工作的地方影響了從支出到發票支付時間的任何事情,但這只是我的猜測。

  • I can't tell you why. What I can tell you is that for Northrop Grumman, we did not see that as a factor in second quarter. We had exceptionally strong book-to-bill, as I noted, at 1.48. We have seen acquisitions staying relatively on time and awards and outlays being in line with our expectations.

    我不能告訴你為什麼。我可以告訴你的是,對於諾斯羅普·格魯曼來說,我們沒有將其視為第二季度的一個因素。正如我所指出的,我們的訂單出貨比異常強勁,為 1.48。我們看到收購相對按時進行,獎勵和支出符合我們的預期。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Yes, it's just a strange dynamic. It's uncommon to see authorization humming along and then being plused up and discussions of higher in the future and then the outlays down double digits. But so for you, that's -- it's really a supply chain that's the bigger factor. And then it sounds like you think maybe it's possible that the customer knows their supply chain issue? So isn't cutting checks as fast as they normally would?

    好的。是的,這只是一個奇怪的動態。很少看到授權嗡嗡作響,然後被加起來並在未來討論更高的內容,然後支出下降兩位數。但對你來說,那是——實際上,供應鏈才是更重要的因素。然後聽起來您認為客戶可能知道他們的供應鏈問題?那麼,削減支票的速度不是像往常一樣快嗎?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Right. With outlays, we generally see on existing programs that we let the government know when we're reaching a certain threshold of spending against the funds that they've outlaid and that will trigger them to provide the next funding increment. It could just be that many companies and programs are trailing what their timing expectation would have been. You're seeing that in the results across the industry. And so they just didn't have the need to do the outlays in the quarter. Obviously, that's a trend we all want to see reverse, because to your point, the funding is there.

    正確的。在支出方面,我們通常會在現有計劃中看到,當我們針對他們支出的資金達到一定的支出門檻時,我們會通知政府,這將觸發他們提供下一次資金增量。可能只是許多公司和項目落後於他們的時間預期。您可以在整個行業的結果中看到這一點。所以他們只是沒有必要在本季度進行支出。顯然,這是我們都希望看到的逆轉趨勢,因為就你而言,資金就在那裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will come from the line of Rob Spingarn from Melius.

    下一個問題將來自 Melius 的 Rob Spingarn。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • In AS, you've held the revenue guide despite the pressure in the first half, as you and Dave noted earlier, but the margins are coming down just slightly. And you've talked about catching up in the second half, but I wanted to ask if the labor to do that is going to be a little more expensive and maybe that's what's behind the margin? And to what extent that Palmdale might be a particular labor pinch point because it does seem like you and Lockheed are competing pretty intensely out there for talent.

    正如您和戴夫早些時候指出的那樣,在 AS 中,儘管上半年面臨壓力,但您仍保持著收入指南,但利潤率略有下降。你已經談到在下半場迎頭趕上,但我想問一下這樣做的勞動力是否會稍微貴一點,也許這就是利潤背後的原因?帕姆代爾在多大程度上可能是一個特殊的勞動力緊縮點,因為看起來你和洛克希德在人才方面的競爭非常激烈。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Let me start with the second half of the question, and then Dave can chime in on the first half. We are not seeing Palmdale to be more competitive than other labor markets. Labor markets across the country where we're operating are all competitive. Palmdale is no different, but we have been able to get the staffing there that we need to execute on our programs. What we've seen more so, and we talked about this towards the end of last year, particularly as it impacted the F-35 line is absenteeism that ebbs and flows with COVID has been a bigger challenge for us. So we have the workforce we need, but if they aren't as productive because they aren't able to be there consistently, that was creating more disruption for us.

    讓我從問題的後半部分開始,然後戴夫可以插話前半部分。我們沒有看到 Palmdale 比其他勞動力市場更具競爭力。我們經營所在的全國各地的勞動力市場都具有競爭力。 Palmdale 也不例外,但我們已經能夠在那裡獲得執行我們項目所需的人員配置。我們看到的更多,我們在去年年底談到了這一點,特別是當它影響 F-35 生產線時,隨著 COVID 起起落落的缺勤對我們來說是一個更大的挑戰。所以我們有我們需要的勞動力,但如果他們因為無法始終如一地工作而沒有那麼高效,那就會給我們帶來更多的混亂。

  • That has started to even out. Even with this latest set of COVID disruptions, we have not seen the same level of impacts because we've taken some mitigating steps.

    這已經開始平衡了。即使有最新的一系列 COVID 中斷,我們也沒有看到相同程度的影響,因為我們已經採取了一些緩解措施。

  • The other thing that we've done in Palmdale is put our own training facility in place so that we can more quickly onboard people to our production programs and provide them the training they need. It allows us to hire lesser skilled labor coming in. We provide the skills needed, and that has opened up the pool from which we can recruit. So we aren't just taking talent from other people's production lines and vice versa. So those are some of the things that we've done, and we're seeing good results.

    我們在 Palmdale 所做的另一件事是建立了我們自己的培訓設施,以便我們可以更快地讓人們加入我們的生產計劃並為他們提供所需的培訓。它使我們能夠僱用技能較低的勞動力。我們提供所需的技能,這開闢了我們可以招募的人才庫。所以我們不只是從其他人的生產線上獲取人才,反之亦然。所以這些是我們已經完成的一些事情,並且我們看到了良好的結果。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • And very helpful. And just -- I'm sorry, I was going to just ask a high-level one, if it's okay.

    而且很有幫助。只是 - 對不起,我只是想問一個高層,如果可以的話。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Go ahead.

    前進。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • I just wanted to ask you to characterize your positioning for NGAD?

    我只是想請您描述一下您對 NGAD 的定位?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Yes. So as we think about sixth-generation aircraft, we are in the process of building the first of those, the B-21, and that's given us some fantastic experience and lessons that we believe we can apply to other sixth-generation aircraft. And so we're positioned as a competitor. I think our government desires to have a broad industrial base, able to prime these large opportunities as possible. And we have been clear that we are investing and building our own capabilities and capacities to be able to be a contender.

    是的。因此,當我們考慮第六代飛機時,我們正在建造第一架 B-21,這給了我們一些很棒的經驗和教訓,我們相信我們可以將其應用於其他第六代飛機。所以我們被定位為競爭對手。我認為我們的政府希望擁有廣泛的工業基礎,能夠盡可能地抓住這些巨大的機會。我們很清楚,我們正在投資和建設我們自己的能力和能力,以便能夠成為競爭者。

  • Todd Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

    Todd Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

  • We'll have to leave it there this morning. Kathy, turn it over to you for closing remarks.

    今天早上我們必須把它留在那裡。凱西,把它交給你做結束語。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President

  • Great. Thanks, Todd, and thank you all for joining our call today. I again want to acknowledge the extraordinary accomplishments by our team already this year, and the momentum that I feel is creating for the future. So I hope each of you enjoy the remainder of your summer, and we look forward to speaking with you in October. Thanks again.

    偉大的。謝謝,托德,感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我再次感謝我們團隊今年已經取得的非凡成就,以及我認為正在為未來創造的動力。所以我希望你們每個人都能享受剩下的夏天,我們期待著在 10 月份與你們交談。再次感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Everyone, have a great day.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。大家,有一個美好的一天。