諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Lisa, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到諾斯羅普格魯曼公司的第一季度電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。我叫麗莎，今天我將是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給你的東道主，投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Lisa. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. We'll refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted on our IR web page this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2023 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝，麗莎。大家早上好，歡迎來到 Northrop Grumman 的 2023 年第一季度電話會議。我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們 IR 網頁上的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。在我們開始之前，今天電話會議上討論的事項，包括 2023 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用信息做出的判斷。根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款，它們構成前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際結果存在重大差異。今天的電話會議將包括非 GAAP 財務措施，這些措施與我們在收益發布中的 GAAP 結果相一致。

On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

我們的主席、首席執行官兼總裁 Kathy Warden 今天出席電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Dave Keffer。在這個時候，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Northrop Grumman is off to a solid start to the year. Our team is driving industry-leading growth by executing our strategy, meeting the growing global demand from our customers and performing on our programs. As a result, we increased sales by 6% and delivered strong earnings per share in the quarter.

謝謝，托德。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司今年開局良好。我們的團隊正在通過執行我們的戰略、滿足客戶不斷增長的全球需求以及執行我們的計劃來推動行業領先的增長。因此，本季度我們的銷售額增長了 6% 並實現了強勁的每股收益。

Additionally, we're delivering on our capital deployment strategy, which prioritizes investing in our business and returning cash to shareholders. In the first quarter, we continued thoughtful investments in the capability and capacity needed to support our customers' operational initiatives, and we initiated a $500 million accelerated share repurchase plan, returning a total of nearly $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

此外，我們正在實施我們的資本部署戰略，該戰略優先投資於我們的業務並將現金返還給股東。第一季度，我們繼續對支持客戶運營計劃所需的能力和能力進行深思熟慮的投資，我們啟動了 5 億美元的加速股票回購計劃，通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了總計近 10 億美元。

Based on first quarter results and our continued expectations for growth and strong operational performance, we're reaffirming our 2023 segment guidance. We're increasing our EPS guidance based on our continued confidence in our business outlook and to account for the divestiture of a small minority investment signed this week and expected to close this year. As we look to the long term, increasing breadth to freedom and security persist around the world. Given this, we expect continued support in Congress and the administration for the priorities outlined in the National Defense strategy, which align well with the Northrop Grumman portfolio solution.

基於第一季度的業績以及我們對增長和強勁運營業績的持續預期，我們重申了 2023 年的細分市場指導。基於我們對業務前景的持續信心，並考慮到本週簽署並預計將在今年完成的少數少數投資的剝離，我們正在增加我們的 EPS 指導。從長遠來看，自由和安全的廣度在世界範圍內持續擴大。鑑於此，我們希望國會和政府繼續支持國防戰略中概述的優先事項，這與諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的產品組合解決方案非常吻合。

This support was reaffirmed in the administration's budget request, which was released in March. DoD investment accounts are up by nearly 4% for fiscal year 2024. Northrop Grumman programs continued to be well supported in the budget request, particularly in the areas of strategic deterrence, space, missile defense and advanced computing and communication technologies. The 2024 budget request also reflects the growing need for weapons capability and capacity, with overall funding increasing more than 20% compared to fiscal year 2023 and significant funding increases to major weapon programs, including many of which we provide key components.

政府在 3 月份發布的預算申請中重申了這種支持。國防部在 2024 財年的投資賬戶增長了近 4%。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的項目繼續在預算請求中得到很好的支持，特別是在戰略威懾、太空、導彈防禦以及先進的計算和通信技術領域。 2024 年的預算請求還反映了對武器能力和產能的需求不斷增長，與 2023 財年相比，總資金增加了 20% 以上，主要武器項目的資金也大幅增加，其中許多武器項目由我們提供關鍵部件。

2 of our franchise programs, GBSD and B-21, each fall total investment account funding increased by approximately 10%. The future year defense plan or also prioritizes these programs, with funding projected to nearly double from about $8 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $15 billion in 2028.

我們的 2 個特許經營計劃，GBSD 和 B-21，每年秋季總投資賬戶資金增加約 10%。未來一年的國防計劃或也優先考慮這些項目，預計資金將從 2023 財年的約 80 億美元增加到 2028 年的 150 億美元，增加近一倍。

Outside the U.S., the geopolitical landscape remains dynamic. Global defense budgets are increasing as many U.S. outlies modernize and expand their defense capabilities. An important part of our long-term growth strategy is focused on leveraging our portfolio to meet these growing global needs, and we continue to make progress in this area.

在美國之外，地緣政治格局仍然充滿活力。隨著許多美國偏遠地區實現現代化並擴大其防禦能力，全球國防預算正在增加。我們長期增長戰略的一個重要部分是專注於利用我們的產品組合來滿足這些不斷增長的全球需求，我們將繼續在這一領域取得進展。

In February, Australia issued a request for AARGM-ER, a high-speed, long-range air-to-ground missile that provides counter air defense capability. Northrop Grumman is a prime contractor for AARGM-ER. And this recent FMS request has a potential value of over $500 million. Australia is one of over a half dozen additional countries expressing interest in this capability.

2 月，澳大利亞發出了購買 AARGM-ER 的請求，這是一種高速、遠程空對地導彈，具有反防空能力。 Northrop Grumman 是 AARGM-ER 的主承包商。最近的 FMS 請求具有超過 5 億美元的潛在價值。澳大利亞是另外六個對這種能力表示興趣的國家之一。

In addition, last month, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency approved the sale of 5 additional E-2D Hawkeye aircraft to Japan. These aircraft, along with the existing backlog, are expected to extend E-2D production well past mid-decade. These international opportunities, together with a broad set of others in IBCS, munitions and sensors, form a strong foundation to grow our international revenue at a double-digit rate over the next several years.

此外，上個月，國防安全合作局批准向日本出售額外的 5 架 E-2D 鷹眼飛機。這些飛機連同現有的積壓訂單，預計將使 E-2D 的生產延長到 20 世紀中期。這些國際機會，連同 IBCS、彈藥和傳感器領域的廣泛其他機會，為我們在未來幾年以兩位數的速度增長國際收入奠定了堅實的基礎。

With this global demand signal as a backdrop, we've been executing a strategy over the past few years to significantly enhance capabilities and capacity in our weapons portfolio. This portfolio includes components such as electronics, propulsion systems, warheads, infuses as well as missiles, armaments and interceptors. And as a result, we have multiple positions on key programs as both a supplier and a prime contractor.

以這種全球需求信號為背景，我們在過去幾年中一直在執行一項戰略，以顯著增強我們武器組合的能力。該產品組合包括電子、推進系統、彈頭、輸液器以及導彈、武器和攔截器等組件。因此，我們作為供應商和主承包商在關鍵項目中擁有多個職位。

Let me share a few examples of progress we've made on this strategy. In the first quarter, we received awards for nearly $350 million for medium- and large-caliber ammunition, Bushmaster cannon and propulsion products for the guided multiple launch rocket system, or GMLRS. In addition, we're developing smarter, more advanced weapons required for future high-end fight with innovations in next-generation strike weapons, high-speed propulsion and smart ammunition.

讓我分享幾個我們在該戰略上取得進展的例子。第一季度，我們獲得了近 3.5 億美元的中大口徑彈藥、Bushmaster 加農炮和製導多管火箭系統 (GMLRS) 推進產品的獎勵。此外，我們正在開發未來高端戰鬥所需的更智能、更先進的武器，包括下一代打擊武器、高速推進和智能彈藥方面的創新。

One example of this advancement is the Air Force's Stand-in Attack Weapon, also known as SiAW, a high-speed longer-range air-to-ground missile. During the first quarter, we received an award that takes us to the next phase of this competitive program. To meet our customers' growing demand in this area, we have invested nearly $1 billion since acquiring Orbital ATK, building our capacity for weapons and missile components.

這種進步的一個例子是空軍的替身攻擊武器，也稱為 SiAW，一種高速遠程空對地導彈。在第一季度，我們獲得了一項獎項，使我們進入了該競爭計劃的下一階段。為滿足客戶在這一領域不斷增長的需求，自收購 Orbital ATK 以來，我們已投資近 10 億美元，以增強我們在武器和導彈部件方面的能力。

Our investments significantly increased capacity to produce solid rocket motors supporting our expectation for continued demand for this capability as well as increased capacity for GEM 63 boosters, which supports the growing launch needs of our civil and commercial customers. We're also investing to increase capacity in our missile integration facility located at the Allegheny Ballistics Laboratory in West Virginia. Our newest 113,000 square foot facility is a factory of the future. It is designed to support production of up to 600 strike missiles per year.

我們的投資顯著增加了生產固體火箭發動機的能力，支持我們對這種能力的持續需求的預期，並增加了 GEM 63 助推器的能力，這支持了我們的民用和商業客戶不斷增長的發射需求。我們還在投資以提高位於西弗吉尼亞州阿勒格尼彈道學實驗室的導彈集成設施的能力。我們最新的 113,000 平方英尺設施是未來的工廠。它旨在支持每年生產多達 600 枚打擊導彈。

Production operations will commence with the second lot of low rate initial production for AARGM-ER, adding to other programs that we currently support this complex, including GMLRS Hellfire and Precision Strike Missile, among several others. In addition, we're building a new hypersonic center of excellence in Elkton, Maryland. Later to open this summer, this new production facility is designed to provide full life cycle production for hypersonic weapons from design and development to production and integration using the latest digital engineering and smart manufacturing technologies.

生產運營將從 AARGM-ER 的第二批低速率初始生產開始，增加我們目前支持該綜合體的其他項目，包括 GMLRS 地獄火和精確打擊導彈等。此外，我們正在馬里蘭州埃爾克頓建立一個新的高超音速卓越中心。這個新的生產設施將於今年夏天開放，旨在使用最新的數字工程和智能製造技術為高超音速武器提供從設計和開發到生產和集成的全生命週期生產。

The Elkton facility supports programs like hypersonic attack cruise missile, known as and Air launched powered hypersonic weapon that we're producing in partnership with Raytheon Technologies. We're not only a provider of missile systems, we also are a leading provider of missile defense system. This is a rapidly growing area within our business and includes a diverse set of franchise programs.

埃爾克頓設施支持高超音速攻擊巡航導彈等項目，我們與雷神技術公司合作生產的空射動力高超音速武器。我們不僅是導彈系統的供應商，還是領先的導彈防禦系統供應商。這是我們業務中一個快速發展的領域，包括一系列多樣化的特許經營計劃。

Our work in missile defense is now approaching 10% of company revenue, and we see an opportunity to expand that in the years ahead. Our broad end-to-end missile defense portfolio includes sensors, interceptors and command and control systems. One example is our prime contractor role on the next-generation Overhead Persistent Infrared, or OPIR Polar segment. This OPIR satellite constellation will operate at a highly elliptical orbit and provide critical strategic missile defense warning capabilities.

我們在導彈防禦方面的工作現在接近公司收入的 10%，我們看到了在未來幾年擴大這一比例的機會。我們廣泛的端到端導彈防禦產品組合包括傳感器、攔截器以及指揮和控制系統。一個例子是我們在下一代 Overhead Persistent Infrared 或 OPIR Polar 部分的主要承包商角色。這個 OPIR 衛星星座將在高橢圓軌道上運行，並提供關鍵的戰略導彈防禦預警能力。

Importantly, we also provide proliferated low earth orbit missile defense capabilities on programs like HBTSS and recent awards for SDA tracking Tranche 1. In addition, we're a prime integrator on next-generation INTERCEPT capabilities, including NGI and glide phase Interceptor. They protect against advanced ballistic and hypersonic missile threats. Shortly after the close of the quarter, we received approval for full rate production for IBCS, an integrated air and missile defense system.

重要的是，我們還為 HBTSS 等項目提供了擴展的低地球軌道導彈防禦能力，以及最近獲得的 SDA 跟踪第 1 批次獎項。此外，我們是下一代攔截能力的主要集成商，包括 NGI 和滑翔階段攔截器。它們可以抵禦先進的彈道導彈和高超音速導彈威脅。本季度結束後不久，我們獲得了全速生產 IBCS（一種綜合防空和導彈防禦系統）的批准。

This key milestone allows the U.S. Army to set the fielding schedule for IBCS to its Air Defense unit, which will significantly bolster regional defense capabilities. Over the fighter period, domestic deliveries of IBCS units are expected to increase by 40%. And as a reminder, Poland selected IBCS to serve as the centerpiece of its air and missile defense modernization and a number of other allies are also evaluating the system.

這一重要里程碑使美國陸軍能夠為其防空部隊制定 IBCS 的部署時間表，這將顯著增強區域防禦能力。在戰鬥機期間，IBCS 裝置的國內交付量預計將增加 40%。提醒一下，波蘭選擇 IBCS 作為其防空和導彈防禦現代化的核心，許多其他盟國也在評估該系統。

Before turning the call over to Dave, I'd like to touch on a couple of key program updates, starting with B-21. The program remains on the government's baseline for cost and schedule, and we're continuing to work towards first flight, which will be informed by events and data and remains on track for this year. There are no material changes in our EACs this quarter for the EMD phases of the program, and we continue to expect to receive the first LRIP award later this year.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，我想談談幾個關鍵的程序更新，從 B-21 開始。該計劃仍然在政府的成本和進度基准上，我們正在繼續努力實現首飛，這將根據事件和數據提供信息，並在今年保持正軌。本季度我們的 EAC 在該計劃的 EMD 階段沒有發生重大變化，我們繼續期望在今年晚些時候獲得第一個 LRIP 獎項。

The B-21 program is expected to be the centerpiece of the Air Force's long-range strike portfolio for decades to come. With steady growth in the projected funding across the site, as I outlined, and strong customer demand for its unmatched range, health and survivability, the long-term outlook for the B-21 program remains robust.

B-21 計劃有望在未來幾十年成為空軍遠程打擊組合的核心。正如我概述的那樣，隨著整個站點的預計資金穩步增長，以及客戶對其無與倫比的範圍、健康和生存能力的強烈需求，B-21 計劃的長期前景依然強勁。

On GBSD, we achieved 2 key milestones in the quarter. This includes its first full-scale static test fire of the Stage 1 followed rocket motor and the successful completion of a series of wind tunnel tests, which tested the system in both subsonic and hypersonic environments. The comprehensive test campaign validated our digital modeling and simulations and improved design maturity of the missile.

在 GBSD 上，我們在本季度實現了 2 個關鍵里程碑。這包括其對第一階段火箭發動機進行的首次全面靜態試射，以及成功完成了一系列風洞試驗，這些試驗在亞音速和高超音速環境中測試了該系統。全面的測試活動驗證了我們的數字建模和仿真，並提高了導彈的設計成熟度。

And earlier this month, the James Web-based telescope industry team led by Northrop Grumman won the prestigious trophy for revolutionizing the field of Aster physics. I want to congratulate the team for a pioneering design and unwavering commitment, which were instrumental in winning our industry's highest honor. Overall, our strong start to the year is a clear indicator of this team's performance. We see continued robust demand for our solutions in the U.S. and abroad, and we believe we're well positioned to maintain our industry-leading profitable growth and deliver value creation for shareholders and customers alike. With that said, I'll hand the call over to Dave to cover the details of our financial results and our outlook. Dave?

本月早些時候，由 Northrop Grumman 領導的基於 James Web 的望遠鏡行業團隊因徹底改變了 Aster 物理學領域而贏得了久負盛名的獎杯。我要祝賀團隊的開創性設計和堅定不移的承諾，這有助於贏得我們行業的最高榮譽。總的來說，我們今年的強勁開局清楚地表明了這支球隊的表現。我們看到美國和國外對我們的解決方案的需求持續強勁，我們相信我們有能力保持行業領先的盈利增長並為股東和客戶創造價值。話雖如此，我會將電話轉給戴夫，以介紹我們財務業績和前景的詳細信息。戴夫？

Okay. Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. As Kathy noted, our first quarter results provide further evidence that our strategy is working. The strategic investments that we're making in franchise programs and key customer priority areas have positioned us to deliver differentiated growth. Our team continues to do an outstanding job of managing through challenges in the macroeconomic environment. We added substantially to our headcount again this quarter. With respect to the supply chain, we saw signs of modest progress in Q1. We continue to believe that our supply base will experience areas of pressure for some time. And inflation levels have begun to moderate but continue to have a higher base effect on our costs over time, especially on longer-term programs.

好的。謝謝，凱西，大家早上好。正如凱西指出的那樣，我們第一季度的業績進一步證明了我們的戰略正在奏效。我們在特許經營計劃和關鍵客戶優先領域進行的戰略投資使我們能夠實現差異化增長。我們的團隊繼續出色地應對宏觀經濟環境中的挑戰。本季度我們再次大幅增加了員工人數。在供應鏈方面，我們在第一季度看到了溫和進展的跡象。我們仍然相信我們的供應基地將在一段時間內承受壓力。通貨膨脹水平已經開始緩和，但隨著時間的推移繼續對我們的成本產生更高的基礎效應，尤其是在長期計劃方面。

As we've discussed on prior earnings calls, we've been experiencing impacts from inflation-related cost increases over the past year. We continue to drive efficiencies in our business and partner with our customers in an effort to reduce those impacts going forward.

正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上討論的那樣，我們在過去一年中一直受到與通貨膨脹相關的成本增加的影響。我們繼續提高我們的業務效率，並與我們的客戶合作，努力減少這些影響。

Now turning to Q1 results. Bookings of roughly $8 billion, were in line with our expectations, including $3.2 billion in restricted awards. Our backlog remains solid at more than 2x our annual sales, including nearly $24 billion in restricted backlog. At the segment level, our Q1 sales were particularly strong at Space Systems, which grew 17% year-over-year. Aeronautics sales were slightly below the projected full year run rate, primarily due to timing of volume on a few of our large programs.

現在轉向第一季度的結果。約 80 億美元的預訂額符合我們的預期，其中包括 32 億美元的限制性獎勵。我們的積壓訂單仍然穩定，是年銷售額的 2 倍多，其中包括近 240 億美元的受限積壓訂單。在細分市場層面，Space Systems 的第一季度銷售額尤為強勁，同比增長 17%。航空銷售額略低於預計的全年運行率，這主要是由於我們的一些大型項目的銷量時間安排。

MS was up 3% in the quarter, driven by expansion in restricted sales in the Networked Information Solutions business. And Defense Systems sales were up 7%. It's Battle Management and Missile Systems business, several components of which Kathy described earlier, is experiencing particularly strong customer demand, given the global threat environment.

受網絡信息解決方案業務限制銷售擴張的推動，MS 在本季度增長了 3%。防禦系統銷售額增長了 7%。考慮到全球威脅環境，它的戰鬥管理和導彈系統業務（Kathy 之前描述的幾個組成部分）正在經歷特別強烈的客戶需求。

Segment margins were 10.8% in Q1, in line with our expectations, and included roughly 50 basis points of unfavorable impact associated with higher CAS pension costs that were incorporated into our rates in Q1. Those impacts were spread relatively evenly across the 4 segments. AS margins were down from the first quarter of 2022, primarily because of the $67 million favorable EAC change on the B-21 EMD phase last year. GS margins were about in line with our full year outlook adjusting for the CAS pension impacts.

第一季度的部門利潤率為 10.8%，符合我們的預期，其中包括與我們在第一季度的費率中納入的較高 CAS 養老金成本相關的大約 50 個基點的不利影響。這些影響相對均勻地分佈在 4 個部分。 AS 利潤率比 2022 年第一季度有所下降，這主要是因為去年 B-21 EMD 階段的 6700 萬美元有利 EAC 變更。 GS 利潤率與我們根據 CAS 養老金影響調整後的全年展望基本一致。

MS was slightly under its 2023 projection, due in part to a loss recognized on an unconsolidated joint venture. And Space margins were solid in the quarter with lower EAC adjustments partially offset by the sale of a license to a customer. At the enterprise level, we generated sales volume of $9.3 billion, representing growth of 6% compared to the first quarter of 2022.

MS 略低於其 2023 年的預測，部分原因是在一家未合併的合資企業中確認了虧損。本季度空間利潤率穩健，EAC 調整減少部分被向客戶出售許可所抵消。在企業層面，我們產生了 93 億美元的銷售額，與 2022 年第一季度相比增長了 6%。

Consistent with what we communicated last quarter, our Q1 sales were just over 24% of the midpoint of our full year estimate and were driven by both our hiring trends and supplier deliveries. Our first quarter operating income also grew 6%, due to lower corporate unallocated expense and intangible asset amortization. Our diluted earnings per share were $5.50 and included a headwind of over $1 per share compared to the first quarter of 2022 from lower net pension income.

與我們上個季度傳達的信息一致，我們第一季度的銷售額剛剛超過我們全年預期中點的 24%，並且受到我們的招聘趨勢和供應商交付的推動。由於公司未分配費用和無形資產攤銷減少，我們第一季度的營業收入也增長了 6%。我們的攤薄後每股收益為 5.50 美元，與 2022 年第一季度相比，淨養老金收入下降帶來的每股收益超過 1 美元。

This noncash pension headwind will continue to be a factor in our year-over-year EPS comparisons throughout 2023. And based on current estimates, we expect pension income to begin to increase next year. We also had a few Q1 benefits below the segment line that contributed to our earnings per share.

這種非現金養老金逆風將繼續成為我們 2023 年全年每股收益比較的一個因素。根據目前的估計，我們預計明年養老金收入將開始增加。我們還有一些低於細分線的第一季度收益，這些收益對我們的每股收益做出了貢獻。

First, our other corporate unallocated expenses were only $4 million. And while our forecast for corporate unallocated was already weighted toward the second half of the year, this created a timing benefit of roughly $0.10 per share in the quarter. Our marketable securities were favorable in the period and contributed roughly $0.10 to earnings.

首先，我們其他公司未分配的費用僅為 400 萬美元。雖然我們對企業未分配的預測已經對今年下半年進行了加權，但這在本季度創造了大約每股 0.10 美元的時間收益。我們的有價證券在此期間表現良好，為收益貢獻了大約 0.10 美元。

And our Q1 estimated tax rate of 15.6%, was lower than our full year forecast, contributing another $0.10 of upside. This was due in part to the benefits of various tax credits recognized in the quarter. Altogether, these items contributed approximately $0.30 of benefit to our Q1 EPS, but they are primarily timing related in nature.

我們第一季度的預估稅率為 15.6%，低於我們全年的預期，又帶來了 0.10 美元的上漲空間。這部分是由於本季度確認的各種稅收抵免的好處。總而言之，這些項目為我們的第一季度每股收益貢獻了大約 0.30 美元的收益，但它們本質上主要與時間相關。

Turning to cash. As is our typical pattern, we experienced an outflow of cash in the first quarter, due primarily to working capital timing. Capital expenditures totaled $309 million, and our first quarter operating cash flow was a usage of approximately $700 million, consistent with historical trends.

轉向現金。按照我們的典型模式，我們在第一季度經歷了現金流出，這主要是由於營運資金的時間安排。資本支出總計 3.09 億美元，我們第一季度的運營現金流使用量約為 7 億美元，與歷史趨勢一致。

Q2 last year was a period of cash outflow also, but we're currently forecasting a modest inflow in Q2 this year. In April, we made our first cash tax payment of the year, including the R&D taxes owed associated with Section 174. For the full year, we're projecting over $700 million in cash taxes associated with Section 174, and we continue to be hopeful that Congress will find a way to amend or repeal the law.

去年第二季度也是現金流出期，但我們目前預測今年第二季度會有適度流入。 4 月，我們支付了今年的第一筆現金稅，包括與第 174 條相關的研發稅。全年，我們預計與第 174 條相關的現金稅超過 7 億美元，我們仍然充滿希望國會將找到一種方法來修改或廢除該法律。

Moving to guidance. Given that the first quarter was roughly in line with our expectations, we have not changed any of our full year segment guidance ranges. We continue to project a book-to-bill ratio just under 1.0x for the year. We expect our second quarter sales to be in line with or slightly higher than Q1 and less than 25% of our full year estimate. We expect many of the timing items I mentioned previously to normalize over the course of the year, including interest expense.

轉向指導。鑑於第一季度大致符合我們的預期，我們沒有改變任何全年分部指導範圍。我們繼續預計今年的訂單出貨比略低於 1.0 倍。我們預計我們第二季度的銷售額將與第一季度持平或略高於第一季度，並且低於我們全年預期的 25%。我們預計我之前提到的許多時間項目在一年中會正常化，包括利息支出。

With respect to capital deployment, we remain committed to returning more than 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders this year via dividends and share repurchases. As Kathy mentioned, we initiated a $500 million accelerated share repurchase in the first quarter. And including our open market repurchases, we'll repurchase roughly $720 million of stock in the period. We also raised $2 billion in new notes in the first quarter at attractive rates, which we anticipate using in part to retire the $1 billion of notes that are maturing in Q3.

在資本配置方面，我們仍然致力於通過股息和股票回購將今年 100% 以上的自由現金流返還給股東。正如 Kathy 提到的，我們在第一季度啟動了 5 億美元的加速股票回購。包括我們的公開市場回購在內，我們將在此期間回購大約 7.2 億美元的股票。我們還在第一季度以極具吸引力的利率籌集了 20 億美元的新票據，我們預計將部分用於收回第三季度到期的 10 億美元票據。

Over the long term, we've demonstrated our ability to generate strong and stable cash flows in our underlying business. And based on the durable growth in several areas of our business that Kathy highlighted, we continue to expect our free cash flow to expand at a robust rate, not just through 2025, but through the second half of the decade as well, providing flexibility for our long-term capital deployment plans.

從長遠來看，我們已經證明了我們有能力在我們的基礎業務中產生強大而穩定的現金流。基於 Kathy 強調的我們業務的幾個領域的持久增長，我們繼續預計我們的自由現金流將以強勁的速度增長，不僅到 2025 年，而且到 2025 年的下半年，為我們的長期資本部署計劃。

And as we noted in our 10-Q this morning, we just signed an agreement to sell our minority equity investment in a small international business. Closing is expected to occur later this year, most likely in Q3, subject to government approvals and closing conditions. We have increased our EPS guidance by $0.40, consistent with our estimated gain from the transaction and additive to our strong business outlook.

正如我們今天早上在 10-Q 中指出的那樣，我們剛剛簽署了一項協議，出售我們在一家小型國際企業中的少數股權投資。預計將於今年晚些時候關閉，最有可能在第三季度完成，具體取決於政府批准和關閉條件。我們將 EPS 指引提高了 0.40 美元，這與我們從交易中獲得的估計收益一致，並增加了我們強勁的業務前景。

In conclusion, we're pleased with our start to the year, certain improvements in the macro environment and robust demand signals from our customers domestically and abroad. And with that, let's open up the call for questions.

總之，我們對今年的開局、宏觀環境的某些改善以及來自國內外客戶的強勁需求信號感到滿意。有了這個，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from Doug Harned of Bernstein. .

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。 .

I'd like to go back kind of to last quarter on the B-21. And the reason is, in the last quarter, you all raised the possibility that you could see the first 5 LRIPs not be profitable in a sense because of inflation. And one of my question is that presumably, when you originally won the contract back in 2015, you made inflation assumptions in the pricing that I would assume maybe LRIPs profitable.

我想回到 B-21 的最後一個季度。原因是，在上個季度，你們都提出了這樣一種可能性，即由於通貨膨脹，你們可能會看到前 5 個 LRIP 在某種意義上無法盈利。我的一個問題是，當你最初在 2015 年贏得合同時，你在定價中做出了通貨膨脹假設，我認為 LRIP 可能有利可圖。

And since that time, we've seen mostly low inflation years with a couple of recent high inflation years just recently here. And first, how has inflation progressed relative to your original assumptions over that 8-year period? And is there an inflation level we should watch for going forward, where those costs become the issue that you were concerned about? Just trying to really see what the assumptions you're making are and how we should think about ultimate profitability here?

從那時起，我們看到的大多是低通脹年，最近幾年是高通脹年。首先，在這 8 年期間，通貨膨脹相對於您最初的假設是如何發展的？我們是否應該關注未來的通貨膨脹水平，這些成本會成為您擔心的問題？只是想真正了解您所做的假設是什麼以及我們應該如何考慮這裡的最終盈利能力？

Yes, Doug, thanks for the question. So to talk about the assumptions that we made then on inflation and even that we're making now, I would look to publicly available information. We tend to use indices to think about long-term projections on macroeconomic condition. So if you roll the clock back to 2015 and look at what the Fed was doing, they were managing inflation to a 2% target and doing that pretty effectively.

是的，道格，謝謝你的提問。因此，要談論我們當時對通貨膨脹所做的假設，甚至我們現在所做的假設，我會參考公開信息。我們傾向於使用指數來考慮對宏觀經濟狀況的長期預測。因此，如果你將時鐘撥回到 2015 年，看看美聯儲在做什麼，他們正在將通脹率控制在 2% 的目標上，而且做得非常有效。

So you can imagine that that's the set of assumptions that we would have been relying on as we looked out into the future. I'm not saying that's exactly what we did. We're not going to disclose that, but those indices give you a good sense of what we would have been thinking. Of course, the last couple of years, inflation has been higher than that. And the thing about inflation, particularly as it relates to labor, is it doesn't tend to come back down on labor once salaries are elevated, they tend to set a new labor benchmark.

所以你可以想像這是我們在展望未來時一直依賴的一組假設。我並不是說這正是我們所做的。我們不會透露這一點，但這些指數可以讓您很好地了解我們的想法。當然，最近幾年，通貨膨脹率比這高。而關於通貨膨脹的事情，特別是與勞動力有關的事情，一旦工資上漲，它往往不會回落到勞動力身上，它們往往會設定一個新的勞動力基準。

And so as we think about the future, we're expecting those costs at least to remain elevated over the remainder of the execution of the contract. In areas like materials and other supplies, we do believe those will follow the indices associated with those commodities. And so there will be some variation of what we can buy those materials out into the future and the indices are a good way to think about that as well.

因此，當我們考慮未來時，我們預計這些成本至少會在合同執行的剩餘時間內保持高位。在材料和其他供應品等領域，我們確實相信這些將遵循與這些商品相關的指數。因此，我們可以在未來購買這些材料的方式會有一些變化，而指數也是考慮這一點的好方法。

And so when you go forward to finalize each of these LRIPs, which is coming soon, I guess two things. I mean, is there -- is it possible to think -- for us to think of inflation levels that could be of a concern? But then also shouldn't you have the opportunity at least on labor and materials to get some sort of an equitable adjustment on cost?

因此，當您繼續完成這些即將推出的每個 LRIP 時，我猜有兩件事。我的意思是，有沒有可能讓我們想到可能令人擔憂的通脹水平？但是，難道你不應該至少有機會在勞動力和材料方面對成本進行某種公平的調整嗎？

Well, we certainly believe so. And as I noted in our last call, that is what we're working toward. And so we continue to have discussions with the government, both congressionally with the dollars that they have appropriated for inflation relief for contracts just like this and the Department of Defense as they think about how to allocate those funds, and we'll continue to work that very actively.

好吧，我們當然相信。正如我在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，這就是我們正在努力的方向。因此，我們繼續與政府進行討論，包括國會和國防部在考慮如何分配這些資金時撥出的用於緩解通貨膨脹的美元，我們將繼續努力那非常積極。

And of course, wouldn't expect that relief to come all at once, but in the annual appropriations associated with the program or a separate funds like we saw in 2023 for inflation relief. Now with that said, we also are working to offset these increases with other elements inside of our control, our overhead rates, the other costs that flow into segment operating margin that can have a beneficial effect as well.

當然，我們不會指望這種救濟會一下子到來，而是通過與該計劃相關的年度撥款或我們在 2023 年看到的用於緩解通脹的單獨基金。話雖如此，我們也在努力用我們控制範圍內的其他因素、我們的間接費用率、流入部門營業利潤率的其他成本來抵消這些增長，這些成本也會產生有益的影響。

We're not relying fully on actions the government will take, although we do believe that both the government and Northrop Grumman should be working to mitigate these impacts and share this risk together.

我們並沒有完全依賴政府將採取的行動，儘管我們確實相信政府和諾斯羅普格魯曼公司應該努力減輕這些影響並共同分擔這種風險。

Our next question will be coming from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about Aeronautics and kind of other than restricted programs. I assume B-21, we saw a number of declines in the quarter. And that's not very surprising. Those are kind of mature programs. But where do you see, excluding B-21, where we have the budget documents, when do you see the rest of the Aeronautics portfolio sort of stabilizing?

我想知道您是否可以談談航空學以及受限項目以外的其他話題。我假設 B-21，我們在本季度看到了一些下降。這並不奇怪。這些都是成熟的程序。但是，除了 B-21，你在哪裡看到我們有預算文件，你什麼時候看到其餘的航空投資組合有點穩定？

And then if you could talk about the potential for any other growth drivers in the portfolio, especially potentially in the Autonomous area over time and how you're thinking about aligning with the Air Force's strategy there?

然後，如果你能談談投資組合中任何其他增長驅動因素的潛力，特別是隨著時間的推移在自治區的潛在增長，以及你如何考慮與那裡的空軍戰略保持一致？

Well, thanks, Seth. We have talked about the long-term view of Aero top line. And so while not guiding for 2024, we have said that we do expect revenue to be flattish this year and then begin to grow again next. And that's driven by a few factors. The first is those programs you noted and that we noted in the Q, like Joint Stars, Global Hawk that have been putting pressure on our year-over-year comparison, Aero do become minimal from this point forward in terms of year-over-year sales decline.

好吧，謝謝，賽斯。我們已經討論了 Aero 頂線的長期觀點。因此，雖然我們沒有為 2024 年提供指導，但我們確實預計今年的收入將持平，然後在明年開始再次增長。這是由幾個因素驅動的。第一個是你提到的和我們在 Q 中提到的那些項目，比如 Joint Stars、Global Hawk，它們一直在對我們的同比比較施加壓力，從這一點來看，Aero 確實在同比-年銷售額下降。

We also have programs that are fairly stable, like F-35, that will continue. And then we have growth drivers like B-21. And in addition to that, I would add the Air Force's operational imperatives as well as some new program activity that's happening for the Navy and Aviation as well. So all of those create modest but some upside for us as we look in the compares '24 to '23.

我們還有相當穩定的項目，比如 F-35，這些項目將繼續進行。然後我們有像 B-21 這樣的增長動力。除此之外，我還要補充空軍的作戰要求以及海軍和航空業正在開展的一些新計劃活動。因此，當我們比較 24 年和 23 年時，所有這些都為我們創造了適度但有一些好處。

Great. I guess if I could sneak in one more. You talked a lot about the investments that you're making in your prepared remarks, and I thought that was very helpful. And I kind of plays into this idea that we're in sort of a different world where the customer needs kind of more spare capacity. How do you think about return on investment in that world where maybe there's a need for more spare capacity? And is there a willingness on the customer side to kind of recognize that and provide some value for it as well?

偉大的。我想我是否可以再偷偷溜進去一個。你在準備好的發言中談了很多關於你正在進行的投資，我認為這很有幫助。我有點認同這樣的想法，即我們處於一個不同的世界，客戶需要更多的備用容量。您如何看待可能需要更多閒置產能的世界的投資回報？客戶是否願意承認這一點並為其提供一些價值？

Yes. Excellent question as well. So as we're thinking about the investments we're making, we look at what we believe a stable long-term capacity level is that will be supported by government expenditures. And we've made those investments. We got ahead of that curve because we believe that we can gain share by being ready for that demand signal as it comes. But then we look out and say there is likely to be a period of surge that the government would like industry to respond to.

是的。很好的問題。因此，當我們考慮我們正在進行的投資時，我們會看看我們認為穩定的長期產能水平將得到政府支出的支持。我們已經進行了這些投資。我們走在了這條曲線的前面，因為我們相信我們可以通過為需求信號的到來做好準備來獲得份額。但隨後我們會留意並表示可能會出現一段激增期，政府希望行業對此做出反應。

And there, we've put proposals forward to the government to get their funding to support what would be that additional capacity. So in the example that I gave today, I talked about us investing nearly $1 billion of our own dollars in expanding solid rocket motors, both for tactical missiles, which was really the focus of my commentary today, but all the way to strategic missiles as well. We're expanding capacity in those areas.

在那裡，我們已經向政府提出了建議，以獲得他們的資金來支持額外的能力。因此，在我今天給出的例子中，我談到我們投資了近 10 億美元用於擴大固體火箭發動機，既用於戰術導彈，這實際上是我今天評論的重點，但一直到戰略導彈出色地。我們正在擴大這些領域的能力。

We have more than doubled the capacity with the investments we've laid in or plan to make. For the government to go even further than that, we are suggesting that we can support that, but would look for government funding to complement it.

通過我們已經投入或計劃進行的投資，我們的產能增加了一倍以上。為了讓政府走得更遠，我們建議我們可以支持它，但會尋求政府資金來補充它。

Our next question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Kathy, you mentioned GBSD and B-21 funding nearly doubling through the bid up. How do we think about this relative to your plan as it relates to Northrop's revenues versus some of the money, obviously, going to suppliers or the government? And you also mentioned free cash flow growth beyond the current target. How do we think these programs contribute to that growth?

凱西，你提到 GBSD 和 B-21 的資金在競標過程中幾乎翻了一番。我們如何考慮這個相對於你的計劃，因為它涉及諾斯羅普的收入與一些錢，顯然，流向供應商或政府？你還提到了超出當前目標的自由現金流增長。我們認為這些計劃如何促進這種增長？

So as we look at the profile on large programs like B-21 and Sentinel. You are right point out that all of that doesn't come to Northrop Grumman and our suppliers. Some of that is government funding. And that's particularly true with the Sentinel program because there is a significant of government activities associated with the work that will go on in the missile field and the coordination and collaboration across government to enable the construction scope.

因此，當我們查看 B-21 和 Sentinel 等大型程序的配置文件時。您正確地指出，諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司和我們的供應商並沒有提供所有這些。其中一部分是政府資助。哨兵計劃尤其如此，因為有大量政府活動與將在導彈領域進行的工作以及政府之間的協調與協作相關，以實現建設範圍。

So when we look at our profile on these programs, it is a subset of the overall budget growth, but it tends to follow in terms of relative year-over-year growth. What we will experience, not necessarily in that year because those appropriated funds or for what will be extended, it then takes us time to extend those funds, sometimes 18 to 24 months depending on the scope of work kind of program like B-21 and Sentinel.

因此，當我們查看我們對這些計劃的概況時，它是整體預算增長的一個子集，但它往往會跟隨相對同比增長。我們將經歷的，不一定在那一年，因為那些撥款資金或將要延長的資金，然後我們需要時間來延長這些資金，有時需要 18 到 24 個月，具體取決於 B-21 和 B-21 等項目的工作範圍哨兵。

So when you net all of what I just said, the signal from the budget tells you there is continued and sustained growth in both of those programs through the that, that growth will come and be sustained not just through that 2028 period if you could expect it to continue, both when you look at what the government has said about quantities on B-21 and how they ramp as well as Sentinel moving into production in that time frame and still be ramping.

因此，當你計算出我剛才所說的所有內容時，來自預算的信號告訴你，這兩個項目都在持續和持續增長，如果你可以預期，增長將會到來並持續到 2028 年它會繼續，無論是當你看看政府對 B-21 數量的看法，以及它們如何增加以及哨兵在那個時間框架內投入生產並且仍在增加時。

So it's not just about '24 to '28 projections that you see in the Fidelis, but looking beyond that into the next decade.

因此，您在 Fidelis 中看到的不僅僅是關於 24 到 28 年的預測，而是展望未來十年。

Sheila, one thing I'd add to the second point you raised around free cash flow growth, what we were touching on there is really beyond the 3-year outlook period that we've provided with specifics. The second half of the decade provides an opportunity for continued free cash flow growth, and that's driven by returns on some of the investments Kathy has been describing throughout this call. It will be a period of less heavy capital intensity and more in the way of opportunity for returns on those investments we have been and are currently making.

希拉，我要補充的是你圍繞自由現金流增長提出的第二點，我們所談到的實際上超出了我們提供的具體細節的 3 年展望期。這十年的下半年為自由現金流的持續增長提供了機會，這是由凱西在整個電話會議中描述的一些投資回報推動的。這將是一個資本密集度較低的時期，我們已經和目前正在進行的投資獲得回報的機會更多。

And then, of course, some of the less operational items like cash taxes will be lower in the second half of the decade as we get through the Section 174 amortization period. And the opportunity exists for CAS pension recoveries to continue to be higher in that second half of the decade. So all told, that's what gives us optimism about that period from a free cash flow expansion perspective also.

然後，當然，隨著我們度過第 174 條的攤銷期，現金稅等一些操作性較低的項目將在本世紀下半年降低。在這十年的下半年，CAS 養老金回收率有機會繼續走高。總而言之，從自由現金流擴張的角度來看，這也是讓我們對那個時期感到樂觀的原因。

The next question will be coming from Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的羅納德愛潑斯坦。

Maybe changing gears just a little bit. Kathy, can you talk a bit about -- and you mentioned it a little bit in your opening remarks about Northrop's strategy in the space market. One of the big things that we learned out as the space imposing, the whole architecture of space is changing. You guys had a huge presence there, and there's some pretty interesting stuff going on with your partnership with Firefly and so on and so forth. But if you could just kind of walk us through your vision on Northrop in space, defense and commercial?

也許只是一點點改變齒輪。凱西，你能談談嗎？你在開場白中提到了諾斯羅普在太空市場的戰略。我們了解到的一件大事是空間的壯觀，整個空間架構正在發生變化。你們在那裡有很大的影響力，你們與 Firefly 的合作關係也發生了一些非常有趣的事情等等。但是，您能否向我們介紹一下您對諾斯羅普在太空、國防和商業領域的看法？

Yes, certainly. So you're right to point out that our strategy in space is broad-based. The cornerstone of it is as the cornerstone of our business tied to national security and supporting the U.S. and our allies to operate effectively and freely in space. But we also have a strategic significant pillar in space exploration as evidenced in our work in James Webb and more scientific missions, but also our work in the Artemis program in space exploration.

是的，當然了。所以你指出我們在太空的戰略是基於廣泛的是正確的。它的基石是我們與國家安全相關的業務的基石，支持美國和我們的盟友在太空中有效和自由地運作。但我們在太空探索方面也有一個重要的戰略支柱，我們在 James Webb 和更多科學任務中的工作以及我們在 Artemis 太空探索計劃中的工作都證明了這一點。

And our commercial ventures are largely tied to enabling those 2 strategic pillars within our space business. So when we are looking at the technologies that we need in space, we are well integrated across all elements of a solution, meaning we think about launch, even if we're not the launch provider, having partnerships with companies that can provide us the ability to launch.

我們的商業企業在很大程度上與實現我們太空業務中的這兩個戰略支柱有關。因此，當我們研究我們在太空中需要的技術時，我們很好地集成了解決方案的所有元素，這意味著我們考慮發射，即使我們不是發射供應商，與可以為我們提供的公司建立合作夥伴關係發射能力。

And that's the relationship we have with Firefly, being able to build the satellites that provide value and that's both being a bus provider as well as the payload, then being able to operate, command and control those assets in space. So that's more of a JADC2 contribution with the space domain in mind. And then, of course, that means being able to operate on the ground as well as be able to have these satellites able to communicate and share data.

這就是我們與 Firefly 的關係，能夠建造提供價值的衛星，這既是總線供應商又是有效載荷，然後能夠在太空中操作、指揮和控制這些資產。因此，這更像是 JADC2 對空間領域的貢獻。然後，當然，這意味著能夠在地面上運行以及能夠讓這些衛星能夠通信和共享數據。

So this ties to the core competencies we have across this company in other domains, and we are working to bring all of that to the space domain. And the space domain is the fastest growing area, not only of our business, but our customers' budget, both NASA and the Department of Defense has been very well supported in recent budgets, and we expect that to continue. So our objective is to use this opportunity to continue to grow our share and our relevance in those markets.

因此，這與我們公司在其他領域的核心競爭力有關，我們正在努力將所有這些帶到太空領域。太空領域是增長最快的領域，不僅是我們的業務，而且我們客戶的預算，NASA 和國防部在最近的預算中都得到了很好的支持，我們希望這種情況繼續下去。因此，我們的目標是利用這個機會繼續擴大我們在這些市場中的份額和相關性。

And then if I may ask just a quick follow-on to that. When you think about the growth in that business, it's been a huge growth driver for you. Do you foresee that continuing into the next couple of years? I mean, how should we think about the growth of that business?

然後，如果我可以問一個快速的後續問題。當您考慮該業務的增長時，它對您來說是一個巨大的增長動力。您是否預見到這種情況會持續到未來幾年？我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮該業務的增長？

I do. And I've said that we shouldn't get wedded to double-digit growth that we've been experiencing consistently for the last several years because we have been in a position of winning significant new programs and seeing those programs ramp. And the business itself has nearly doubled. It's pretty amazing to see what's happened in the last few years. So I don't expect that to be the growth profile for the next several years, but I do expect it to continue to be a growth engine in our company.

我願意。而且我已經說過，我們不應該執著於過去幾年我們一直在經歷的兩位數增長，因為我們一直處於贏得重要新項目並看到這些項目增加的位置。而業務本身幾乎翻了一番。看到過去幾年發生的事情真是太神奇了。所以我不認為這會成為未來幾年的增長模式，但我確實希望它繼續成為我們公司的增長引擎。

And as we just talked about programs like Sentinel, the most significant growth on some of these is yet to come because many of the programs are in the development phase, where we are just building the first of. The opportunity is when those transition into production for both higher volumes and higher margins. And that's still very much ahead of us.

正如我們剛剛談到像 Sentinel 這樣的程序，其中一些程序的最顯著增長尚未到來，因為許多程序處於開發階段，我們只是在構建第一個。機會是當它們過渡到生產以獲得更高的產量和更高的利潤時。這仍然遙遙領先於我們。

The next question will be coming from Robert Spingarn of Melius.

下一個問題將來自 Melius 的 Robert Spingarn。

So Kathy, just a follow-up on Ron's question on space. SpaceX announced a separate division called Star Shield that's going to be focused on defense work. How do you think about their push into national security? And is there an opportunity actually to partner with them? So is it more of a positive potentially or negative?

凱西，我只是跟進羅恩關於空間的問題。 SpaceX 宣布了一個名為 Star Shield 的獨立部門，該部門將專注於防禦工作。您如何看待他們對國家安全的推動？真的有機會與他們合作嗎？那麼它更多的是積極的還是消極的？

I don't see it as a significant change. We have been partnering with SpaceX. We expect to continue to do so. And my sense is that standing up this into within SpaceX, it's more to help them with the structural differences in dealing with the government work and customers versus their commercial aspirations. But in terms of our ability to work together, they've been a good partner to us.

我不認為這是一個重大變化。我們一直在與 SpaceX 合作。我們希望繼續這樣做。我的感覺是，在 SpaceX 內部提出這一點，更多的是幫助他們解決在處理政府工作和客戶方面的結構性差異，而不是他們的商業抱負。但就我們的合作能力而言，他們一直是我們的好夥伴。

Of course, they're also a competitor, but that's normal in our space, and so we expect that to continue. And we embrace competition in Northrop Grumman. We think it hones our skills makes us stronger. And so we see this as a positive for the industry overall.

當然，他們也是競爭對手，但這在我們的領域很正常，所以我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。我們在 Northrop Grumman 接受競爭。我們認為它可以磨練我們的技能，讓我們變得更強大。因此，我們認為這對整個行業都是積極的。

The next question will be coming from Jason Gursky of Citi.

下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Kathy, you did a nice job of outlining some of the recent wins and developments and investments that you're making. You touched a little bit about Aeronautics and Space growth in the out years. So I wonder if you might do the same for Defense and the Mission Systems kind of focusing in not just on the positives but any potential headwinds that you see there, so we can all kind of get a good sense of what out your growth rates in '24 and '25 might look like?

凱西，你很好地概述了你最近取得的一些勝利、發展和投資。您略微談到了過去幾年的航空航天發展。所以我想知道你是否可以為國防和任務系統做同樣的事情，不僅關注積極的一面，而且關注你在那裡看到的任何潛在的不利因素，這樣我們就能很好地了解你的增長率是多少'24 和'25 可能看起來像？

Yes. So why don't I start with Mission Systems. It's been a steady grower. We anticipate that it will continue to be. It hasn't been our fastest grower, but it's just really consistent. And I expect that to be the position Mission Systems finds itself and going forward. And that's not to say there aren't a lot of changes happening within that business. It is a highly competitive business and one where technical differentiation is critical, but they are staying at the forefront of technology to remain competitive.

是的。那麼，為什麼我不從 Mission Systems 開始。它一直是一個穩定的種植者。我們預計它將繼續如此。它並不是我們增長最快的，但它確實非常穩定。我希望這將成為 Mission Systems 找到自己並繼續前進的位置。這並不是說該業務中沒有發生很多變化。這是一項競爭激烈的業務，技術差異化至關重要，但他們始終站在技術的最前沿以保持競爭力。

So some examples of that are as aircraft of the fourth gen are retired eventually, they have roles -- significant roles on some of those. And so that work starts to dissipate. But at the same time, they are competing for next-generation technologies. And you see this even playing out on the F-35, where we talked about the new radar development award that we got is that platform is being modernized with Block IV upgrades.

因此，這方面的一些例子是，隨著第四代飛機最終退役，它們發揮了作用——對其中一些起著重要作用。因此，工作開始消散。但與此同時，他們也在爭奪下一代技術。你甚至可以在 F-35 上看到這一點，我們談到了我們獲得的新雷達開發獎，該平台正在通過 Block IV 升級進行現代化改造。

And so I'm really pleased with that team's competitive position stay at the forefront of technology and continue to win new work, but that will be necessary for them to continue this mid-single-digit growth rate that we've got become accustomed to there. In terms of Defense, it's a little bit of a different story. There, we have been a flattish business, and that has been because we weren't seeing significant growth in weapons. It was a pretty stable business, and we were seeing the work in our aircraft modernization decline.

因此，我對該團隊保持在技術前沿的競爭地位並繼續贏得新工作感到非常滿意，但這對於他們繼續保持我們已經習慣的中個位數增長率是必要的那裡。在國防方面，情況有點不同。在那裡，我們的業務一直很平淡，這是因為我們沒有看到武器的顯著增長。這是一個相當穩定的業務，我們看到我們的飛機現代化工作在下降。

What I expect to see going forward is that our weapons portfolio growth more than offset the declines in the other part of the portfolio, and it will be a net grower for us. How much is dependent on how quickly that global demand that I talked about in today's call matures and also how successful we are in winning work on both new weapons development programs as well as second source on some existing programs.

我希望看到的是，我們武器組合的增長足以抵消組合其他部分的下降，這對我們來說將是一個淨增長者。多少取決於我在今天的電話會議中談到的全球需求成熟的速度，以及我們在贏得新武器開發計劃以及一些現有計劃的第二來源方面的成功程度。

And I'm optimistic there. But this year will be really pivotal in indicating what we think the growth for that business will be. But we do see it being a growth business next year.

我對此很樂觀。但今年對於表明我們認為該業務的增長將是非常關鍵的一年。但我們確實認為它明年將成為一項增長業務。

The next question will be coming from Kristine Liwag Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自 Kristine Liwag Morgan Stanley。

With the debt ceiling standoff, there's been a lot of discussion of an extended CR in fiscal year '24, which tend to have more of a disruptive impact on programs that are ramping or transitioning. You've previously mentioned that you expect the first B-21 LRIP contract later this year as it transitions from development. But if the program award date slips past the end of September and into fiscal year '24, what could that mean for the program?

隨著債務上限的僵局，人們對 24 財年延長的 CR 進行了大量討論，這往往會對正在加速或過渡的項目產生更多的破壞性影響。您之前曾提到，您希望在今年晚些時候從開發過渡到第一份 B-21 LRIP 合同。但是，如果計劃授予日期超過 9 月底並進入 24 財年，這對該計劃意味著什麼？

For the B-21, because those funds were appropriated as part of FY '23, we don't believe that there will be an issue with them awarding that production lot. And as you look across our portfolio, we are used to navigating CRs. And so there aren't any major issues that I would point out to you if this is a short-term CR. But as the industry always points out, the longer a CR goes, the more those risks become material.

對於 B-21，因為這些資金是作為 23 財年的一部分撥款的，我們認為他們授予該生產批次不會有問題。當您查看我們的產品組合時，我們習慣於瀏覽 CR。因此，如果這是短期 CR，我不會向您指出任何重大問題。但正如業界總是指出的那樣，CR 持續的時間越長，這些風險就變得越重要。

I'm hopeful that, given the threat environment that Congress recognizes the importance of timely appropriations, I'm not saying we won't have a CR, but I am hopeful that it won't be an extended period CR. But if indeed that's the case, we'll work with the government to address any issues that we see on individual and material program.

我希望，考慮到國會認識到及時撥款重要性的威脅環境，我並不是說我們不會有 CR，但我希望它不會是一個延長期的 CR。但如果情況確實如此，我們將與政府合作解決我們在個人和物質計劃上看到的任何問題。

The next question comes from Myles Walton of Wolfe.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫的邁爾斯沃爾頓。

Dave, I wonder if you could first size the loss of the JV and the favorable license in relative terms or absolute terms you like? And then maybe, Kathy, at a high level, I think this is the high watermark thus far for cost-plus mix, 54% in the quarter since the Orbital acquisition was done. And I'm curious if it keeps going higher from here or this truly is a high watermark?

戴夫，我想知道你是否可以首先根據你喜歡的相對條款或絕對條款來衡量合資企業和有利許可的損失？然後也許，凱西，在高水平上，我認為這是迄今為止成本加成組合的高水位線，自 Orbital 收購完成以來本季度為 54%。我很好奇它是從這裡繼續走高還是這真的是一個高水位線？

Well, why don't I start on the first, and then I'll hand it over to Kathy. On your first question, we talked on the call about last year's $67 million EAC benefit on the B-21 EMD program in this quarter. When things get to that level of magnitude, well into the tens of millions, we tend to disclose and describe and quantify those in more detail. When we have things in the $10 millions and $20 millions, as we do every quarter, as you'd imagine a business of our size, we tend to group those together and describe them as we have in this case, the benefit of the license sale and the downside from the JV.

好吧，為什麼我不先開始，然後我會把它交給凱西。關於你的第一個問題，我們在電話會議上談到了去年本季度 B-21 EMD 項目的 6700 萬美元 EAC 收益。當事情達到那個數量級，甚至達到數千萬時，我們傾向於更詳細地披露、描述和量化這些。當我們擁有 1000 萬美元和 2000 萬美元的東西時，就像我們每個季度所做的那樣，就像您想像的我們規模的企業一樣，我們傾向於將它們組合在一起並描述它們，就像我們在這種情況下所擁有的那樣，許可證的好處出售和合資企業的不利影響。

So you can expect things like that to have been in that much lower range, but still meaningful in terms of thinking through run rates and full year impacts.

所以你可以預期這樣的事情會在更低的範圍內，但在考慮運行率和全年影響方面仍然有意義。

And Myles, I'll just add on to that before I answer your second question that if you look at our margins coming out of the gate for the year right where we wanted to be in segment operating margin adjusted for the pension impact, which we've been talking about, hitting the programs in the first quarter. So we're not breaking that down by segment. If you took each of our 4 businesses and then accounted for those 2 minor exceptions, which you just outlined and adjusted for pension, they be right in line with our guidance for the year.

邁爾斯，在我回答你的第二個問題之前，我會補充一點，如果你看看我們當年的利潤率，就在我們希望在根據養老金影響調整的部門營業利潤率中，我們一直在談論，在第一季度擊中節目。所以我們不會按細分細分。如果您將我們的 4 項業務中的每一項都考慮在內，然後考慮您剛剛概述並針對養老金進行調整的那 2 項小例外情況，它們就符合我們今年的指導方針。

So we're not going to walk you through the exact math of each item that goes into that, that we can tell you that those segments all 4 are in the first quarter with those impacts we've outlined adjusted for right in line with where they need to be to deliver on their guidance.

因此，我們不會向您詳細介紹其中的每個項目的確切數學，我們可以告訴您，所有 4 個部分都在第一季度，我們概述的這些影響已根據位置進行了調整他們需要兌現他們的指導。

In answer to your second question, I do believe the quarter is a bit of a high watermark on our mix because we had some fluctuations just in production quantities within particularly MS that drove their mix balance higher on cost plus. We don't even expect that to sustain for the full year within MS. So we're going to probably end the year a little over the 50% cost plus, which is where we had signaled we would likely be, and that's still where we think we are.

在回答你的第二個問題時，我確實認為該季度對我們的組合來說有點高水位，因為我們在生產數量上有一些波動，特別是 MS，這使得他們的組合平衡在成本加成上更高。我們甚至不希望這種情況在 MS 內持續一整年。因此，我們可能會在今年結束時略高於 50% 的成本加成，這是我們發出的信號我們可能會達到的水平，而這仍然是我們認為的水平。

And we don't see a major shift in that for the next couple of years until, as we've said, these programs that are in development start to move into production, especially the bigger ones like B-21, Sentinel and some of the space programs, then you'll see a more material mix shift for us, but it will be towards fixed price.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們不會看到重大轉變，直到正如我們所說的那樣，這些正在開發的項目開始投入生產，尤其是像 B-21、哨兵和一些更大的項目太空計劃，然後你會看到我們的材料組合發生了更多變化，但它將轉向固定價格。

The next question will be coming from Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

下一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Terrific. So Kathy, you mentioned that book-to-bill expected to be a little bit under 1x this year. But lots of times, key wins have small bookings to start off. So could you give us some color in terms of what are the key competitions or booking opportunities you see over the rest of the year? And what are the milestones we should look for?

了不起。所以凱西，你提到今年的訂單出貨率預計會略低於 1 倍。但很多時候，關鍵的勝利都是以小額預訂開始的。那麼，您能否就今年餘下時間看到的主要比賽或預訂機會給我們一些顏色？我們應該尋找哪些里程碑？

Yes. So it's a very intuitive question. As we look at 2023, there are not many competitive new awards or even down select. As I've talked about, we have a good bit of work in our portfolio where we are in a usually 2-horse race programs like NGI is a good example of that. But we don't see many of those this year. They become more substantive in '24 and even '25. And -- so we'll provide more color on those as we guide for '24 later this year.

是的。所以這是一個非常直觀的問題。展望 2023 年，競爭性新獎項甚至羽絨選擇都不多。正如我所說的，我們在我們的投資組合中有很多工作，我們通常在 2 匹馬比賽中，比如 NGI 就是一個很好的例子。但是今年我們看不到很多。它們在 24 世紀甚至 25 世紀變得更加實質性。而且 - 因此我們將在今年晚些時候為 '24 提供更多顏色。

What I'll tell you about 2023 is that the majority of our sales this year are in backlog, and we don't see much in the way of competitive new awards. It's really immaterial for us this year.

關於 2023 年，我要告訴你的是，我們今年的大部分銷售都處於積壓狀態，而且我們看不到有競爭力的新獎項。今年對我們來說真的無關緊要。

The next question is from Robert Stallard of Vertical.

下一個問題來自 Vertical 的 Robert Stallard。

Kathy, one for you. The Australian government put out a defense strategy report, I think it was earlier this week. And in there, they seem to be contemplated whether they thought they might buy the B-21, which is a bit of a surprise to me at least. I was wondering this might be a sign that the U.S. government is a little bit more open to the U.S. defense industry exporting some of its more sophisticated equipment, including Northrop Grumman?

凱西，一個給你。澳大利亞政府發布了一份國防戰略報告，我想是在本週早些時候。在那裡，他們似乎在考慮是否會購買 B-21，這至少讓我感到有些意外。我想知道這可能是一個跡象，表明美國政府對美國國防工業出口一些更先進的設備（包括諾斯羅普格魯曼公司）更加開放？

Yes, I'm glad you took the question the way you did. I was obviously expecting someone might ask, why didn't they buy it? And you're right on. It would be premature for the U.S. to be working with another government on the B-21 program. But I think it is important that there were discussions ongoing ones that if you would have told me a handful of years ago might happen, I would have been surprised to hear.

是的，我很高興你以你的方式回答了這個問題。我顯然在期待有人會問，他們為什麼不買呢？你是對的。美國與另一個政府就 B-21 計劃進行合作還為時過早。但我認為重要的是，正在進行的討論如果你在幾年前告訴我可能會發生，我會很驚訝地聽到。

So I think in particular, and the opening of a strategic relationship on nuclear-powered submarines between the U.S., the U.K. and Australia is going to change how those 3 nations at least work together more collaboratively, and I wouldn't take it off the table in the long run that other strategic capabilities become part of that dialogue. But with where the B-21 is today, I think it appropriate that they did not count on it in their defense strategic review.

所以我特別認為，美國、英國和澳大利亞之間就核動力潛艇建立戰略關係將改變這三個國家至少更加協作的方式，我不會取消它從長遠來看，其他戰略能力將成為該對話的一部分。但鑑於 B-21 的現狀，我認為他們在國防戰略評估中不依賴它是恰當的。

The next question is coming from Ken Herbert of RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

Your acquisition of Orbital ATK, the timing in hindsight now seems to have been very good, just considering growth in Space and now what we're seeing in Missiles and Munitions. Within the broader sort of capital allocation context, are there other areas perhaps from an inorganic standpoint or acquisition standpoint that you think could fit in well with the portfolio? You obviously outlined a number of organic investments today. But how do you view acquisitions perhaps moving forward relative to the market opportunities? And at what point would you maybe look more favorably on inorganic growth?

你收購 Orbital ATK，事後看來時機似乎非常好，只是考慮到太空的增長以及我們現在在導彈和彈藥方面看到的情況。在更廣泛的資本配置背景下，從無機的角度或收購的角度來看，您是否認為還有其他領域可以很好地適合投資組合？您顯然今天概述了一些有機投資。但您如何看待收購可能相對於市場機會向前發展？在什麼時候你可能更看好無機增長？

We certainly remain active in looking at opportunities to expand through acquisition. I would say that on the breadth of our portfolio and the strength of it, there are no gaps that I see an imperative to use acquisitions to fill those gaps that we are positioned to do so largely through both organic investing and external partnering, which is an important tool in our toolkit. It doesn't require acquiring companies to have those very strategic partnerships with them, one of which we talked about earlier in the call with Firefly, for instance.

我們當然會繼續積極尋找通過收購進行擴張的機會。我想說的是，就我們投資組合的廣度和實力而言，我認為沒有任何差距需要通過收購來填補我們主要通過有機投資和外部合作來填補的差距，這是我們工具包中的一個重要工具。它不需要收購公司與他們建立那些非常戰略性的合作夥伴關係，例如，我們之前在與 Firefly 的電話會議中談到了其中之一。

But with that said, the regulatory environment is certainly top of mind when I think about execution risk associated with acquisition as well. So we take all of that into consideration and likely wouldn't see a path to do a significant strategic acquisition in the near term.

但話雖如此，當我考慮與收購相關的執行風險時，監管環境肯定是首要考慮因素。因此，我們將所有這些都考慮在內，並且可能不會在短期內看到進行重大戰略收購的途徑。

The next question is coming from David Strauss of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Kathy, you mentioned the updated funding profile for B-21 and Sentinel that were in the budget. Specifically, I wanted to ask about B-21. It looks like there was some shift there where development dollars were added and production dollars were shifted to the right. So if you could comment on what that reflects, first of all? And second of all, what that could mean for your margin profile in the program, given your strong performance during the development phase?

凱西，你提到了預算中 B-21 和哨兵的最新資金概況。具體來說，我想問一下 B-21。看起來那裡發生了一些變化，開發資金增加了，生產資金轉移到了右邊。所以，如果你能評論一下這反映了什麼，首先是什麼？其次，考慮到您在開發階段的出色表現，這對您在該計劃中的利潤狀況意味著什麼？

Yes, David. So you may recall, we had talked previously about our cost projections for the program were below independent cost estimates upon which the government needed to set their budget. You're starting to see that now reflected in the modifying those production budget. And you might see more of that in the future as we're hitting those cost targets that we have for the programs that are below their independent cost estimates.

是的，大衛。所以你可能還記得，我們之前曾談到我們對該計劃的成本預測低於政府需要設定預算的獨立成本估算。您開始看到現在反映在修改這些生產預算中。隨著我們正在達到我們為低於其獨立成本估算的項目制定的成本目標，您可能會在未來看到更多這樣的情況。

So that's what you see happening in production. The production funding they requested really supports the needs of the program as we and the government understand them today that is allowing them to ask Congress for more in the RDT&E accounts associated with modernization and beginning that modernization now. And I really want to complement the way the Air Force manage this programs. They are always thinking ahead and working with us on not just the current spaces we're executing but how we will execute the next phase of the program.

這就是您在生產中看到的情況。他們要求的生產資金確實支持了該計劃的需求，正如我們和政府今天對他們的理解，這使他們能夠向國會要求更多與現代化相關的 RDT&E 賬戶，並立即開始現代化。我真的很想補充空軍管理這些項目的方式。他們總是超前思考並與我們合作，不僅是我們正在執行的當前空間，還有我們將如何執行程序的下一階段。

So we have largely moved our way through EMD. Now we're starting production. We -- it's only natural that we would be looking at the modernization program, and that's what you see reflected in their budgeting.

所以我們在很大程度上已經通過 EMD 前進了。現在我們開始製作了。我們 - 我們很自然地會考慮現代化計劃，這就是您在他們的預算中看到的反映。

And from a margin perspective, I know, which is really where you want to go, yes, we do expect the margins on that work associated with modernization to be better than what we expect to get in LRIP production, so it will be a net positive to the overall B-21 margin picture.

從利潤率的角度來看，我知道，這才是你真正想去的地方，是的，我們確實希望與現代化相關的工作的利潤率比我們在 LRIP 生產中獲得的利潤率要好，所以這將是一個淨額對整體 B-21 保證金圖片有利。

We have time for one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

The next question and final question is coming from Peter Arment of Baird.

下一個問題也是最後一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Kathy, just circling back to kind of how you kicked off the call talking about kind of increased demand signals on Munitions and some of the Missile Defense capabilities like IBCS. Just when we think about international, how do you think a lot of this growth starts to layer in? Is it more '24, '25 or in beyond? Or do you see some of this growth actually showing up more to the left of that?

凱西，回過頭來談談你是如何開始通話的，談論對彈藥和一些導彈防禦能力如 IBCS 的需求信號增加。就在我們考慮國際化的時候，您認為這種增長是如何開始分層的？是'24'、'25'還是更晚？還是您看到其中的一些增長實際上更多地出現在它的左側？

Yes. We see some of it starting to show up now. So I mentioned $350 million of awards that we received in the first quarter associated with weapons. And of course, IBCS, part of the Missile Defense portfolio, we are starting as that now has gotten full rate production approval to see that demand fill out not just here, but with the Poland deliveries as well. So some of that certainly is going to provide support to the Defense System sector in 2023.

是的。我們看到其中一些現在開始出現。所以我提到了我們在第一季度收到的與武器相關的 3.5 億美元獎勵。當然，IBCS 是導彈防禦產品組合的一部分，我們已經開始了，因為它現在已經獲得了全速生產批准，不僅可以滿足這裡的需求，還可以滿足波蘭的交付需求。因此，其中一些肯定會在 2023 年為國防系統部門提供支持。

But we do see the majority of those opportunities later, '24, '25, as those programs scale. NGI is another good example where we have seen significant growth last year in this. We'll see somewhere into 2024, but the real opportunity there is after either a down select or a carry forward of 2 parties and moving into production in the later part of the decade.

但是隨著這些項目的擴展，我們確實在 24 年、25 年之後看到了其中的大部分機會。 NGI 是另一個很好的例子，去年我們在這方面取得了顯著增長。我們會在 2024 年的某個時候看到，但真正的機會是在 2 方的向下選擇或結轉並在本十年的後期投入生產之後。

So thanks, everybody, for joining our call today. I also want to again extend my thanks and congratulations to our team for another solid quarter. We look forward to speaking with you all on our next earnings call in July. So Lisa, with that, we're concluding today's call.

所以感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我還想再次感謝和祝賀我們的團隊又一個穩定的季度。我們期待在 7 月份的下一次財報電話會議上與大家交談。麗莎，就這樣，我們結束了今天的電話會議。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's call, and you all may disconnect.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。今天的電話會議到此結束，你們都可以斷開連接。