諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Jurenz, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們,先生們,美好的一天,歡迎來到諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第一季度電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。我的名字是 Jurenz,今天我將成為你的接線員。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

    我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人 Todd Ernst 先生,他是財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁。恩斯特先生,請繼續。

  • Todd B. Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

    Todd B. Ernst - Corporate VP and Treasurer & VP of IR

  • Thanks, Jurenz. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. We'll refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted on our IR website this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including 2022 guidance and beyond, including outlooks, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

    謝謝,尤倫茨。大家早上好,歡迎來到諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第一季度電話會議。我們將參考今天早上在我們的 IR 網站上發布的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。在我們開始之前,今天電話會議上討論的事項,包括 2022 年及以後的指導,包括展望,反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用信息的判斷。根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款,它們構成前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,這在今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中都有說明。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際業績出現重大差異。

  • Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

    今天的電話會議將包括非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標與我們在收益發布中的 GAAP 結果一致。

  • On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO.

    今天的電話會議是我們的主席、首席執行官兼總裁 Kathy Warden;和我們的首席財務官 Dave Keffer。

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

    在這個時候,我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We've seen significant changes to the geopolitical landscape since our last earnings call. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has consequences for the stability of the region in addition to creating a profound humanitarian crisis. Our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and protect their way of life.

    謝謝,托德。大家早上好,感謝您加入我們。自上次財報電話會議以來,我們已經看到地緣政治格局發生了重大變化。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭除了造成嚴重的人道主義危機外,還對該地區的穩定產生影響。我們與烏克蘭人民同在,他們捍衛自己的自由並保護自己的生活方式。

  • Through the Northrop Grumman Foundation, we are committing aid to help the people of Ukraine, including matching our employees' personal donations to select charitable organizations. This situation underscores the importance of having strong defensive capabilities to deter broader aggression and contain global conflicts.

    通過諾斯羅普·格魯曼基金會,我們承諾提供援助以幫助烏克蘭人民,包括將我們員工的個人捐款與選定的慈善組織相匹配。這種情況凸顯了擁有強大防禦能力以阻止更廣泛的侵略和遏制全球衝突的重要性。

  • At Northrop Grumman, we've worked to ensure our country and its allies have these deterrent capabilities. Modern deterrence depends on our customers' ability to maintain advantage over competitors in multiple domains from undersea to space and cyberspace and every domain in between. Northrop Grumman continues to demonstrate our ability to bring deterrent solutions to a more complicated world through unique capabilities in areas such as stealth, cyber, space, computing, propulsion and communications to name a few. I'll talk more specifically about our capabilities and our strategy in a few moments. But first, let's address the budget trends we see in light of this threat environment.

    在諾斯羅普·格魯曼,我們一直在努力確保我們的國家及其盟友擁有這些威懾能力。現代威懾取決於我們的客戶在從海底到太空和網絡空間以及介於兩者之間的每個領域的多個領域保持優於競爭對手的能力。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司繼續展示我們通過在隱身、網絡、太空、計算、推進和通信等領域的獨特能力,為更複雜的世界帶來威懾解決方案的能力。稍後我將更具體地討論我們的能力和戰略。但首先,讓我們根據這種威脅環境來解決我們看到的預算趨勢。

  • In the U.S., there is bipartisan support for increasing defense budgets. Congress finalized the fiscal year 2022 defense appropriations in March, and the administration has since issued the fiscal year 2023 defense budget request. Both of these base budgets showed solid 4% to 5% top line growth with additional potential in supplemental funding. Based on initial indications from Congress, the final fiscal year 2023 appropriation could be even higher than the initial request as Congress looks to address the evolving threat landscape, but also to offset inflationary pressures.

    在美國,兩黨都支持增加國防預算。國會在 3 月敲定了 2022 財年的國防撥款,政府隨後發布了 2023 財年的國防預算申請。這兩項基本預算均顯示出 4% 至 5% 的穩健收入增長,並具有額外的補充資金潛力。根據國會的初步跡象,2023 財年的最終撥款可能甚至高於最初的要求,因為國會希望解決不斷變化的威脅形勢,同時也抵消通脹壓力。

  • Currently, the fiscal year 2023 budget request includes a 4% increase in the investment accounts. The main driver behind this increase is a 9% increase in R&D to fund development of critical capabilities, particularly in space and deterrence. Space continues to be one of the fastest-growing defense budget areas with a 30%-plus year-over-year increase. The request also fully funds modernization of the strategic deterrent, including initial production funding for B-21 as well as significant year-over-year increase in development funding for GBSD.

    目前,2023 財年的預算要求包括將投資賬戶增加 4%。這一增長背後的主要驅動力是研發增加了 9%,以資助關鍵能力的發展,特別是在太空和威懾方面。太空仍然是國防預算增長最快的領域之一,同比增長 30% 以上。該請求還為戰略威懾的現代化提供了全部資金,包括 B-21 的初始生產資金以及 GBSD 開發資金的同比顯著增加。

  • And NASA budgets are also growing in support of a new era of space exploration. The FY '23 budget request includes an 8% increase over FY '22, including funding ongoing programs such as Artemis and new initiatives for Moon to Mars efforts. And globally, there is an ongoing paradigm shift regarding national security and several allies have pledged to increase defense spending as a result. We stand ready to support them in achieving their national security objectives as well.

    NASA 的預算也在不斷增長,以支持太空探索的新時代。 '23 財年的預算要求包括比 '22 財年增加 8%,包括資助正在進行的項目,如 Artemis 和月球到火星工作的新舉措。在全球範圍內,關於國家安全的範式正在發生轉變,一些盟友已承諾因此增加國防開支。我們也隨時準備支持他們實現其國家安全目標。

  • With the budget environment as context, I'll take a few minutes to step back and frame our business strategy. Our fundamental goal is to be the leading technology company, enabling the U.S. and its allies to protect freedom, deter conflict and sustain our planet. Our business strategy, which we've been executing for several years is focused on four core areas. First, is maintaining technology leadership and delivering innovative and affordable solutions with speed. Next is sustainably and profitably growing our business in our customers' highest priority missions while maintaining contracting discipline. Third is keeping a laser focus on performance and driving cost efficiencies. And finally, we are focused on deploying our capital in value-creating ways for our customers and investors.

    以預算環境為背景,我將花幾分鐘時間回顧一下我們的業務戰略。我們的基本目標是成為領先的科技公司,使美國及其盟國能夠保護自由、阻止衝突和維持我們的星球。我們多年來一直在執行的業務戰略集中在四個核心領域。首先,是保持技術領先地位并快速提供創新且價格合理的解決方案。接下來是在保持合同紀律的同時,在客戶最優先的任務中以可持續和盈利的方式發展我們的業務。第三是始終關注性能和提高成本效率。最後,我們專注於以創造價值的方式為我們的客戶和投資者配置我們的資本。

  • This strategy has created strong alignment with our customer priorities and strengthened our portfolio position. As we sit here today, we expect this will enable us to accelerate our revenue growth rate in 2023 from the low single digits in our 2022 guidance. By 2024, we also expect that by growing our business and delivering strong operational performance, we will be able to drive our segment operating margin rate to approximately 12%. And we continue to expect to grow our transaction-adjusted free cash flow at a double-digit CAGR through this period.

    這一戰略與我們的客戶優先事項建立了緊密的一致性,並加強了我們的投資組合地位。當我們今天坐在這裡時,我們預計這將使我們能夠從 2022 年指導中的低個位數加快 2023 年的收入增長率。到 2024 年,我們還預計,通過發展我們的業務並提供強勁的運營業績,我們將能夠將我們的分部營業利潤率提高到 12% 左右。我們繼續期望在此期間以兩位數的複合年增長率增長我們的交易調整後的自由現金流。

  • From a capital deployment perspective, investing in our business to support this growth outlook remains our top priority. After making such investments, we are targeting a return of at least 100% of our free cash flow to investors in 2022. Underlying these performance goals and expectations is our position in several priority growth areas for our customers.

    從資本部署的角度來看,投資於我們的業務以支持這一增長前景仍然是我們的首要任務。在進行此類投資後,我們的目標是在 2022 年將至少 100% 的自由現金流返還給投資者。這些績效目標和預期的基礎是我們在客戶的幾個優先增長領域的地位。

  • Our role in supporting deterrents across all domains is in direct alignment to the needs of today's changing global national security environment. For nearly 7 decades, the U.S. has successfully mitigated the risk of broader global conflict through strategic deterrence. Northrop Grumman is the prime contractor on two of the three current deterrence modernization programs.

    我們在支持所有領域的威懾力量方面的作用直接與當今不斷變化的全球國家安全環境的需求保持一致。近 7 年來,美國通過戰略威懾成功降低了更廣泛的全球衝突的風險。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司是當前三個威懾現代化計劃中兩個的主要承包商。

  • For the B-21 program, the Air Force confirmed that the first aircraft has entered the ground test phase, paving the way for first flight, and there are five additional test aircraft in various stages of assembly. This progress is partly enabled by our digital design capabilities and advanced manufacturing technologies, which reduce risk ahead of the aircraft's first flight. And looking forward, we expect sales on the B-21 program to grow as the EMD phase continues, and we progress into low-rate initial production. This assumption underpins our expectations for Aeronautics revenue to be flat next year and return to growth in 2024.

    對於B-21項目,空軍確認首架飛機已進入地面試驗階段,為首飛鋪平道路,另外還有五架試驗機處於不同的組裝階段。這一進步部分得益於我們的數字設計能力和先進的製造技術,這些技術降低了飛機首飛前的風險。展望未來,我們預計 B-21 計劃的銷售額會隨著 EMD 階段的繼續而增長,並且我們會進入低速初始生產階段。這一假設支持了我們對明年航空收入持平並在 2024 年恢復增長的預期。

  • For GBSD, we remain on schedule. The program is expected to continue to ramp over the next couple of years as we execute on the $13 billion EMD contract with nearly [$1.9 billion] in expected revenue in 2022. We still expect the program to enter production in the 2026 time frame with initial operating capability planned for 2029. GBSD production is expected to be a material growth driver in the middle of the decade as is reflected in the President's budget.

    對於 GBSD,我們仍按計劃進行。隨著我們執行價值 130 億美元的 EMD 合同,預計該計劃將在未來幾年繼續增加,預計 2022 年的收入將接近 [19 億美元]。我們仍然預計該計劃將在 2026 年的時間框架內投入生產,最初計劃在 2029 年實現運營能力。正如總統的預算所反映的那樣,GBSD 生產預計將成為本世紀中期的重要增長動力。

  • In addition, our Space business continues to experience rapid growth as our customers rearchitect their space-based capabilities. This growth is in response to adversaries developing more sophisticated weapons, the need for more capable missile defense warning systems as well as the migration of some airborne missions to the space domain.

    此外,隨著我們的客戶重新構建其基於太空的能力,我們的太空業務繼續快速增長。這種增長是為了應對對手開發更先進的武器、對更強大的導彈防禦預警系統的需求以及一些空中任務向太空領域的遷移。

  • In the first quarter, we've received several new awards that showcase the breadth of our Space portfolio and our ability to compete and win in various domains, including ground systems and proliferated LEO constellations. These awards build on our significant backlog and positions our Space business for expected double-digit growth once again this year.

    在第一季度,我們獲得了幾項新獎項,這些獎項展示了我們太空產品組合的廣度以及我們在包括地面系統和激增的 LEO 星座在內的各個領域的競爭和獲勝能力。這些獎項建立在我們大量積壓的基礎上,並使我們的太空業務今年再次實現預期的兩位數增長。

  • Notable wins in this quarter included nearly $700 million award for 42 satellites in low-Earth orbit that provide high-speed, low-latency communications for the Space Development Agency's transport layer. And we won a $340 million contract for Deep-Space Advanced Radar Capability, or DARC, that dramatically improves situational awareness, particularly in geosynchronous orbit. And in Q2, we anticipate an approximately $2 billion award from ULA to provide GEM 63 motors for launch services, including in support of Amazon's Project Kuiper.

    本季度取得的顯著成果包括近 7 億美元的 42 顆低地球軌道衛星,這些衛星為太空發展署的傳輸層提供高速、低延遲的通信。我們贏得了一份價值 3.4 億美元的深空先進雷達能力 (DARC) 合同,該合同顯著提高了態勢感知能力,尤其是在地球同步軌道上。在第二季度,我們預計 ULA 將提供約 20 億美元的獎勵,用於為發射服務提供 GEM 63 電機,包括支持亞馬遜的 Kuiper 項目。

  • Another area where we see meaningful future growth opportunities is in Mission Systems, particularly our network information solutions business, which at its core is a communications and processing business. In this area, we have proven technology leadership in connecting and linking military systems with a broad portfolio of products, including networking systems and radios and cyber computing and AI capabilities. We're seeing a rapid evolution in this area with ambitious goals from our customers to field open, distributed, secure networks that are more survivable. Initiatives like JADC2 are providing demand for our existing platform-agnostic solutions as well as providing opportunities for new technologies we are developing.

    我們看到未來有意義的增長機會的另一個領域是任務系統,特別是我們的網絡信息解決方案業務,其核心是通信和處理業務。在這一領域,我們在連接和鏈接軍事系統與廣泛的產品組合方面具有公認的技術領先地位,包括網絡系統和無線電以及網絡計算和人工智能功能。我們看到了這一領域的快速發展,我們的客戶制定了雄心勃勃的目標,即開發更俱生存能力的開放、分佈式、安全網絡。 JADC2 等舉措為我們現有的與平台無關的解決方案提供了需求,並為我們正在開發的新技術提供了機會。

  • And we are creating partnerships like the 5G partnership with AT&T that we announced this month to strengthen our competitive position. We believe this communications business will be the fastest-growing area of MS over the next couple of years.

    我們正在建立合作夥伴關係,例如我們本月宣布的與 AT&T 的 5G 合作夥伴關係,以加強我們的競爭地位。我們相信這項通信業務將是未來幾年 MS 增長最快的領域。

  • Given all that I've just outlined, you can see that our portfolio is aligned to the evolving national security environment and priority areas for our customers. We continue to demonstrate our ability to deliver compelling solutions in this environment.

    鑑於我剛剛概述的所有內容,您可以看到我們的產品組合與不斷變化的國家安全環境和客戶的優先領域保持一致。我們繼續展示我們在這種環境中提供引人注目的解決方案的能力。

  • Ultimately, executing on our strategy depends on having the right culture and people. This is one of the reasons we focus on remaining an industry leader in ESG. I encourage you to look at our annual sustainability report, which we published in March. It provides insights to our progressive governance structure, our culture, our commitment to ethics, diversity, equity and inclusion and environmental sustainability.

    最終,執行我們的戰略取決於擁有正確的文化和人員。這是我們專注於保持 ESG 行業領先地位的原因之一。我鼓勵您查看我們在 3 月份發布的年度可持續發展報告。它為我們進步的治理結構、我們的文化、我們對道德、多樣性、公平和包容以及環境可持續性的承諾提供了見解。

  • As we shared in this year's report, we are committing to net zero emissions in our operations by 2035. We also published our first TCFD report, which provides additional transparency around our approach to managing the climate-related risks and opportunities across our business.

    正如我們在今年的報告中所分享的,我們承諾到 2035 年在我們的運營中實現淨零排放。我們還發布了我們的第一份 TCFD 報告,該報告為我們在整個業務中管理氣候相關風險和機遇的方法提供了額外的透明度。

  • So with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Dave to provide more detail on our results and guidance, and then we'll move on to Q&A. Dave?

    因此,我將把電話轉給戴夫,以提供有關我們結果和指導的更多細節,然後我們將繼續進行問答。戴夫?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter was a strong start to the year. We generated more bookings than we've been expecting, including competitive wins on several new programs. Our robust backlog of $76 billion continues to be over 2x our annual sales and provides the foundation for future growth. First quarter sales totaled $8.8 billion, down 2% organically and up sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2021. Q1 sales represented about 24% of our full year guidance, in line with our prior projection.

    謝謝,凱西,大家早上好。我們的第一季度是今年的強勁開端。我們產生的預訂量超出了我們的預期,包括在幾個新項目中的競爭性勝利。我們強大的 760 億美元的積壓訂單仍然是我們年銷售額的 2 倍以上,並為未來的增長奠定了基礎。第一季度銷售額總計 88 億美元,比 2021 年第四季度有機下降 2%,環比增長。第一季度銷售額約占我們全年指導的 24%,與我們之前的預測一致。

  • We experienced some temporal COVID-related productivity and volume impacts to start the year, which receded as the quarter progressed. Continued tightness in the broader labor market represents a challenge that we're working hard to mitigate as we ramp on large contracts and address strong market demand for our capabilities. We continue to make progress on this front and are pleased with the trajectory that we're on.

    從年初開始,我們經歷了一些與 COVID 相關的生產力和產量影響,隨著季度的進展,這種影響逐漸消退。更廣泛的勞動力市場持續吃緊代表著我們正在努力緩解的挑戰,因為我們正在增加大型合同並滿足市場對我們能力的強勁需求。我們繼續在這方面取得進展,並對我們目前的發展軌跡感到滿意。

  • Our execution remains solid in the quarter. We delivered a segment operating margin rate of 11.8%, in line with the midpoint of our full year guidance. And we made progress on several elements of our long-term cost efficiency strategy. At the program level, net EAC results varied across sectors as is common in any given quarter. One of the positive EAC changes in Q1 was a $67 million favorable adjustment on the B-21 program related to performance incentives.

    我們的執行在本季度保持穩健。我們實現了 11.8% 的分部營業利潤率,符合我們全年指導的中點。我們在長期成本效率戰略的幾個方面取得了進展。在計劃層面,EAC 淨結果因部門而異,這在任何給定季度都很常見。第一季度 EAC 的積極變化之一是對與績效激勵相關的 B-21 計劃進行了 6700 萬美元的有利調整。

  • In addition to what Kathy noted, I wanted to take this opportunity to provide a bit more color on this franchise program. B-21 is currently in its cost type EMD phase with a variety of incentive fees for which we accrue based on anticipated achievement. Our projections for certain EMD incentives improved in Q1, leading to the favorable EAC adjustment. We are in a critical integration and test portion of the EMD phase this year and we continue to focus on production efficiencies. The low-rate initial production, or LRIP phase, will begin over the next year and run in parallel with EMD for a period of time. LRIP for B-21 is fixed price, and we expect to recognize revenue for the LRIP lots separately from EMD. The LRIP units were priced as part of our original bid for the program.

    除了凱西指出的,我想藉此機會為這個特許經營計劃提供更多色彩。 B-21 目前處於成本類型 EMD 階段,我們會根據預期的成就收取各種獎勵費用。我們對某些 EMD 激勵措施的預測在第一季度有所改善,導致有利的 EAC 調整。今年我們正處於 EMD 階段的關鍵集成和測試階段,我們將繼續關註生產效率。低速率初始生產或 LRIP 階段將在明年開始,並與 EMD 並行運行一段時間。 B-21 的 LRIP 是固定價格,我們預計 LRIP 批次的收入將與 EMD 分開確認。 LRIP 單元的定價是我們最初對該計劃的投標的一部分。

  • The full rate production phase, or FRP, has yet to be negotiated and includes the majority of the aircraft volume in the program of record. Based on our current projections, which run roughly through the end of this decade, we continue to expect production to be priced and profitably executed within the program's average procurement unit cost target.

    全速生產階段或 FRP 尚未談判,並將大部分飛機數量包括在記錄計劃中。根據我們目前的預測(大致持續到本十年末),我們繼續預計生產將在該計劃的平均採購單位成本目標範圍內進行定價和盈利執行。

  • Now turning back to our Q1 results. Diluted earnings per share in the quarter were $6.10, reflecting our strong segment performance. Keep in mind, we had a headwind of roughly $0.46, resulting from lower CAS pension costs in our overhead rates that we booked in the first quarter of last year. In aggregate, our transaction-adjusted earnings per share were down 7% compared to Q1 2021, primarily due to nonoperational factors, such as lower net FAS/CAS pension and the performance of marketable securities. It's worth noting that the after-tax net FAS/CAS pension adjustment in Q1 was nearly $250 million, representing $1.58 of earnings per share. This was $40 million lower than Q1 a year ago and a $0.19 EPS headwind. We expect similar impacts in each of the remaining quarters in 2022. That total net FAS/CAS pension adjustment primarily reflects the actuarial gains and losses in our pension plans, and is not something we consider when assessing the company's operating performance.

    現在回到我們的第一季度業績。本季度每股攤薄收益為 6.10 美元,反映了我們強勁的細分市場表現。請記住,我們有大約 0.46 美元的逆風,這是由於我們在去年第一季度預訂的間接費用中的 CAS 養老金成本較低。總體而言,與 2021 年第一季度相比,我們的交易調整後每股收益下降了 7%,這主要是由於非運營因素,例如較低的 FAS/CAS 養老金淨額和有價證券的表現。值得注意的是,第一季度稅後淨 FAS/CAS 養老金調整接近 2.5 億美元,相當於每股收益 1.58 美元。這比一年前的第一季度低 4000 萬美元,每股收益為 0.19 美元。我們預計 2022 年剩餘的每個季度都會產生類似的影響。FAS/CAS 養老金淨調整總額主要反映了我們養老金計劃中的精算損益,而不是我們在評估公司經營業績時考慮的因素。

  • Moving to 2022 guidance. We have minimal changes. We're increasing the sales guidance for our Space business due to continued strong momentum and recent capture of new awards, as Kathy outlined. We now estimate sales in the mid- to high $11 billion range which would result in another year of double-digit sales growth.

    轉向 2022 年指導。我們的變化很小。正如凱西所概述的那樣,由於持續強勁的勢頭和最近獲得的新獎項,我們正在增加對太空業務的銷售指導。我們現在估計銷售額在 110 億美元的中高水平,這將導致又一年實現兩位數的銷售額增長。

  • At Defense Systems, we are adjusting our estimate to the mid- to high $5 billion range to reflect a lower first quarter, particularly on some of our international training programs. These two adjustments offset each other, and our full year company level sales guidance is unchanged.

    在防禦系統,我們正在將我們的估計調整到 50 億美元的中高水平,以反映第一季度的下降,特別是在我們的一些國際培訓項目上。這兩項調整相互抵消,我們全年公司層面的銷售指導不變。

  • With respect to our quarterly sales profile, we expect Q2 sales to be between 24% and 25% of our full year guidance midpoint with our expectation near the middle of that range. From there, we expect accelerating year-over-year growth in the second half of the year.

    關於我們的季度銷售情況,我們預計第二季度的銷售額將在我們全年指導中點的 24% 至 25% 之間,我們的預期接近該範圍的中間。從那時起,我們預計下半年將加速同比增長。

  • Next, I wanted to take a moment to talk about cash. First quarter transaction-adjusted free cash flow was consistent with our expectations and in line with our historical seasonal trends. The decrease compared to the first quarter of 2021 reflects timing of collections and disbursements and our full year guidance is unchanged.

    接下來,我想花點時間談談現金。第一季度交易調整後的自由現金流與我們的預期一致,也符合我們的歷史季節性趨勢。與 2021 年第一季度相比的減少反映了收款和付款的時間安排,我們的全年指導保持不變。

  • After the quarter ended, we made our first cash tax payment of the year, which included the projected effect of current R&D tax law. Our next estimated tax payment is due June 15. We continue to project that cash taxes would be about $1 billion higher for the full year should the current law remain in effect. But we remain optimistic that we will see it deferred or eliminated given the broad bipartisan support for doing so.

    季度結束後,我們進行了本年度的第一筆現金納稅,其中包括現行研發稅法的預計影響。我們預計的下一次納稅預計將於 6 月 15 日到期。我們繼續預計,如果現行法律繼續有效,全年的現金稅將增加約 10 億美元。但我們仍然樂觀地認為,鑑於兩黨對此的廣泛支持,我們將看到它被推遲或取消。

  • Our base case assumption for cash flow and P&L continues to be that Section 174 R&D tax law will be changed. If and when that happens, we would expect to file for any appropriate refunds of taxes paid and also recognize a spike in corporate unallocated cost in that quarter associated with the reversal of the deferred state tax asset that had been building year-to-date. I'd note that we've already incorporated these items in our full year EPS guidance.

    我們對現金流和損益的基本假設仍然是第 174 條研發稅法將發生變化。如果發生這種情況,我們預計將申請任何適當的已付稅款退還,並確認該季度公司未分配成本的飆升與年初至今一直在建立的遞延州稅資產的逆轉有關。我會注意到,我們已經將這些項目納入了我們的全年每股收益指南。

  • We remain committed to providing excellent shareholder returns with at least $1.5 billion in share repurchases targeted for this year on top of a healthy competitive dividend. As Kathy mentioned, in aggregate, we expect to return at least 100% of our 2022 transaction-adjusted free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

    我們將繼續致力於為股東提供出色的回報,除了健康的競爭性股息之外,今年還將進行至少 15 億美元的股票回購。正如凱西所說,總的來說,我們預計將通過股息和股票回購將至少 100% 的 2022 年交易調整後的自由現金流返還給股東。

  • Over time, we expect the cash on our balance sheet at a typical year-end to be roughly $2 billion, which would continue to provide flexibility and liquidity. Our capital deployment strategy also prioritizes investing in our business. We continue to expect capital expenditures for 2022 to be in line with 2021 levels. And later today, we will file an S-4 with the SEC as the final step of the obligor exchange process that we executed last summer on certain debt instruments.

    隨著時間的推移,我們預計在典型的年底資產負債表上的現金約為 20 億美元,這將繼續提供靈活性和流動性。我們的資本部署戰略還優先考慮投資於我們的業務。我們繼續預計 2022 年的資本支出將與 2021 年的水平保持一致。今天晚些時候,我們將向美國證券交易委員會提交一份 S-4,作為我們去年夏天對某些債務工具執行的債務人交換流程的最後一步。

  • Overall, we're pleased with our first quarter results and achievements as we continue to build a strong foundation to accelerate growth and deliver on our long-term value creation strategy.

    總體而言,我們對第一季度的業績和成就感到滿意,因為我們將繼續為加速增長和實現我們的長期價值創造戰略奠定堅實的基礎。

  • And with that, we'll open your call up for questions.

    有了這個,我們將打開您的電話詢問問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Kathy, you talked about Aeronautics and how you're looking at the top line in 2022 to '24. But this has been complicated. You've got several mature programs that are set to decline this year. Even F-35 trajectory looks complicated, E-2D appears to be ending in 2024. And then beneath that, you've got high growth on the B-21 ahead. You've got a budget boost for Triton. Can you help us understand the puts and takes here that get you to those revenue expectations for the next few years?

    凱西,您談到了航空業以及您如何看待 2022 年至 24 年的收入。但這很複雜。你有幾個成熟的計劃今年將下降。即使是 F-35 的軌跡看起來也很複雜,E-2D 似乎將在 2024 年結束。然後在此之下,你的 B-21 將獲得高速增長。你已經為 Triton 增加了預算。您能幫助我們了解讓您達到未來幾年收入預期的看跌期權嗎?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Sure, Doug. And you did a nice job of outlining the key moving parts in the Aero portfolio. Let me start with the mature programs. These are the ones we've been talking about for several years, Global Hawk, Joint STARS, that are in the Air Force plan for retirement and that is happening in the near term.

    當然,道格。您在概述 Aero 產品組合中的關鍵移動部件方面做得很好。讓我從成熟的程序開始。這些是我們幾年來一直在談論的,全球鷹,聯合之星,它們都在空軍退役計劃中,並且在短期內正在發生。

  • Then we have things like what you noted with E-2D, it will reach its program of record quantities over the next several years. We don't see this as an issue in '23 and '24. But as we look to '25 and beyond, that program will be reliant on international sales. And I will say that we are building quite a bit of international interest for E-2D and prosecuting on a pipeline there, but the Navy program of record will reach its full quantity.

    然後我們有你提到的 E-2D 的東西,它將在未來幾年達到創紀錄數量的計劃。我們認為這不是 23 和 24 年的問題。但當我們展望 25 年及以後,該計劃將依賴於國際銷售。我要說的是,我們正在為 E-2D 建立相當多的國際興趣並在那裡對管道進行起訴,但海軍記錄的計劃將達到其全部數量。

  • And then F-35, we look at that as fairly stable over the next couple of years is what we've been saying, and I know there's a question about the quantity in the budget request and how that impacts the Northrop Grumman quantities. It really doesn't have a material impact because we already were planning to build toward our capacity and working with Lockheed Martin. It appears that, that plan is still intact.

    然後是 F-35,我們認為未來幾年相當穩定,這是我們一直在說的,我知道預算請求中的數量以及這如何影響諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的數量存在一個問題。它確實沒有產生實質性影響,因為我們已經計劃建立我們的能力並與洛克希德馬丁公司合作。看來,該計劃仍然完好無損。

  • And then as you know, there are some opportunities that layer additional sales into the plan over the next several years. B-21 being the most notable, for the first time, the President's budget shows the production lay-in starting in 2023. And you can see that, that grows significantly in that same time frame. So lots of puts and takes, but as we look forward to 2023, we see those netting out to about flat with where we expect to finish 2022. And then largely based on B-21 growth and not having any major headwinds in 2024 from the other programs I just outlined, we see growth in 2024.

    然後如您所知,在接下來的幾年中,有一些機會可以將額外的銷售納入計劃。 B-21 是最引人注目的,總統的預算第一次顯示了從 2023 年開始的生產佈局。你可以看到,在同一時間框架內,這顯著增長。如此多的看跌期權,但正如我們對 2023 年的展望,我們看到那些淨值與我們預計到 2022 年完成的水平基本持平。然後主要基於 B-21 的增長,並且在 2024 年沒有任何重大逆風我剛剛概述的其他計劃,我們看到了 2024 年的增長。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Well, and just as a follow-up within that, the new budget, there's a big boost for Triton. And if I look at unmanned systems, this has been an area where, I mean, at least a while back, the company had talked a lot about differentiation because of the operating architectures that have been developed at Northrop Grumman. But we saw -- we've seen Global Hawk come down, HALE Systems, I think there's -- the Triton boost is good. But how do you think of growth potential in unmanned systems overall from this point?

    好吧,作為其中的後續行動,新預算對 Triton 有很大的推動作用。如果我看一下無人系統,我的意思是,至少在不久前,該公司已經在這個領域談論了很多關於差異化的話題,因為諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司已經開發了運營架構。但是我們看到了——我們看到了全球鷹墜落,HALE Systems,我認為有——Triton 的提升是好的。但是,從這一點來看,您如何看待無人系統整體的增長潛力?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • We still see both the Air Force and the Navy looking at unmanned systems as a key part of their architecture. But these won't be either the highest quantity or the highest-priced assets in their fleet. So when you think about the overall materiality of unmanned systems in an Aeronautics portfolio, whether it be ours or others, it's not going to be one of the bigger drivers for growth over the next decade, but it will be important.

    我們仍然看到空軍和海軍都將無人系統視為其架構的關鍵部分。但這些不會是他們機隊中數量最多或價格最高的資產。因此,當您考慮無人駕駛系統在航空產品組合中的整體重要性時,無論是我們的還是其他人的,它都不會成為未來十年增長的更大驅動力之一,但它會很重要。

  • And the capabilities that we have and that we have refined through our work on our HALE platforms as well as some smaller platforms, I think is highly relevant to our positioning for this market in the future.

    我認為,我們擁有的以及通過我們在 HALE 平台以及一些較小平台上的工作改進的能力,與我們未來在這個市場的定位高度相關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自於 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

  • Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

    Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

  • Kathy, thanks for the additional detail on the B-21 there. But I was wondering if we could -- I don't know if we could dig any further on this. You mentioned that the LRIP portion is fixed price and would have been signed a few years ago. I was wondering how this now stands with regard to the inflation that the whole world is dealing with? And how you're going to manage that?

    凱西,感謝您提供有關 B-21 的更多詳細信息。但我想知道我們是否可以——我不知道我們是否可以進一步挖掘這個問題。您提到 LRIP 部分是固定價格的,並且會在幾年前簽署。我想知道現在對於整個世界正在應對的通貨膨脹而言,這會如何?你將如何管理它?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thanks for the question because this is an important thing for us to touch on, and that's why we've provided a bit more clarity on what production looks like on the B-21 program as we are approaching that phase. We did bid that quantity, that quantity is not something I can share, but it's a small portion of the overall program of record as part of the initial bid, and that is what constitutes LRIP and that was bid as fixed price. And as we put that bid together, of course, we, at the time, laid in some expectations around growth inflation to adjust to this time period. And we will continue to look at whether those assumptions still hold.

    是的。感謝您提出這個問題,因為這對我們來說是一件很重要的事情,這就是為什麼我們在 B-21 計劃接近那個階段時提供了更清晰的生產情況。我們確實投標了那個數量,這個數量不是我可以分享的,但它只是整個記錄程序的一小部分,作為初始投標的一部分,這就是 LRIP 的組成部分,它是作為固定價格投標的。當然,當我們將出價放在一起時,我們當時對增長通脹做出了一些預期,以適應這一時期。我們將繼續研究這些假設是否仍然成立。

  • I'll remind you, we're not really going to be into the production phase for a couple of years in any significant way. And so we still have a good bit of time and we expect inflation is going to modulate and we're not seeing based on the assumptions we've made today a material impact to the program.

    我會提醒你,我們不會在幾年內以任何重要的方式進入生產階段。所以我們還有很長的時間,我們預計通脹將會調節,我們沒有看到基於我們今天所做的假設對計劃產生重大影響。

  • And part of why Dave shared how we think about the accounting on the program is so that you know we are already looking at those LRIP lots since we are obligated under our initial proposal for those quantities and still expect to be able to produce those within the government target price, which is published and is updated and adjusted for inflation on a regular basis. The last time the Air Force did that was in 2019, a little over $600 million APUC and we continue to look at our own bid and make sure that we see a path to executing those quantities profitably, and we reiterated that again today.

    Dave 分享我們如何看待該計劃的會計的部分原因是為了讓您知道我們已經在關注這些 LRIP 批次,因為根據我們對這些數量的最初提議,我們有義務並且仍然希望能夠在政府目標價格,定期發布並根據通貨膨脹進行更新和調整。空軍上一次這樣做是在 2019 年,當時的 APUC 略高於 6 億美元,我們繼續審視自己的出價,並確保我們看到了一條以盈利方式執行這些數量的途徑,我們今天再次重申了這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Since we're on the topic of profitability, Kathy, you laid out some margin expansion targets through 2024, I think you mentioned 12%. Given the growth drivers you have, how are you also thinking about just mix? Again, you touched on inflation, it doesn't seem a big deal in productivity overall.

    由於我們談論的是盈利能力,凱西,你制定了到 2024 年的一些利潤率擴張目標,我認為你提到了 12%。鑑於您擁有的增長動力,您還如何考慮混合?再次,您談到了通貨膨脹,總體而言,它似乎對生產力沒什麼大不了的。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So mix is becoming less of a factor for us in the next few years. We had talked about our mix being roughly 50% cost type and 50% fixed plus price. That's exactly where we are as we sit here in the first quarter. And we don't see that varying too much over the next couple of years, maybe a percentage point higher on cost plus or two as we look at the next couple of years.

    因此,在接下來的幾年裡,混合對我們來說不再是一個因素。我們曾談到我們的組合是大約 50% 的成本類型和 50% 的固定加價。這正是我們在第一季度坐在這裡的地方。而且我們認為在接下來的幾年中變化不會太大,在我們展望未來幾年時,成本加成或兩個百分點可能會高出一個百分點。

  • When we see that inflection point to more fixed price is if both B-21 and GBSD start to move into their production phases. And so you can think of that notionally around the '25, '26 time frame, the middle part of the decade. And even then, we don't see a very large swing in our mix because we still have development work that we'll be bidding and continuing to execute in the pipeline. So mix is less of a factor as we look forward at the company level.

    當我們看到更固定價格的拐點是 B-21 和 GBSD 都開始進入生產階段時。因此,您可以在概念上考慮 '25、'26 時間框架,即 10 年的中間部分。即使那樣,我們也沒有看到我們的組合有很大的波動,因為我們仍然有開發工作,我們將競標並繼續在管道中執行。因此,當我們展望公司層面時,混合併不是一個因素。

  • Now I will note that when you get into the segment level, for instance, in Space, those drivers are more pronounced. And so we do see a bit more of a mix shift there.

    現在我將指出,當您進入細分級別時,例如在太空中,這些驅動因素會更加明顯。所以我們確實看到了更多的混合變化。

  • And you asked about how we think of that in terms of profitability. So mix no longer being a big driver when we think about profitability and cost efficiency and performance being the two big drivers that we are focused on. So I talked about that in our strategy in terms of cost efficiencies. We've put in place a dedicated team at the company level, and we're working all elements of cost to ensure that we're operating as efficiently as possible.

    你問我們如何看待盈利能力。因此,當我們考慮到盈利能力、成本效率和性能是我們關注的兩大驅動因素時,混合不再是一個重要驅動因素。所以我在我們的戰略中談到了成本效率方面的問題。我們已經在公司層面建立了一個專門的團隊,我們正在處理所有成本要素,以確保我們盡可能高效地運營。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

    下一個,我們有 Peter Arment 和 Baird 的系列。

  • Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

  • Hey, Dave, maybe I could just follow up on Kathy's comments on the outlook kind of through 2024. You mentioned double-digit growth in free cash flow, how do we think about it from kind of the puts and takes on just an overall conversion rate below 100% currently? And just what's the right way to think about it as we look out through '24?

    嘿,戴夫,也許我可以跟進凱西對 2024 年前景的評論。你提到了自由現金流的兩位數增長,我們如何從看跌期權和整體轉換中考慮目前率低於100%?當我們展望 24 年時,正確的思考方式是什麼?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Sure. Thanks for the question, Peter. No significant changes to our free cash flow outlook from when we described it in some detail a quarter ago. It's not a 3-year outlook that we intend to modify on a quarterly basis unless there are material changes, and so the same drivers exist today.

    當然。謝謝你的問題,彼得。與我們在一個季度前詳細描述時相比,我們的自由現金流前景沒有顯著變化。除非有重大變化,否則我們不打算每季度修改 3 年展望,因此今天存在相同的驅動因素。

  • We do see an opportunity over the next few years for us to continue investing appropriately in the business, but to have CapEx come down slightly, especially in 2024 in comparison to '22 and '23. So that's one of the drivers of free cash flow acceleration. We also have the end of the payroll tax deferral issue that benefited us in '20 and as an outflow in the next -- in the following 2 years. And so that will benefit '23 and '24.

    我們確實看到了未來幾年我們繼續對業務進行適當投資的機會,但資本支出略有下降,特別是在 2024 年與 22 年和 23 年相比。所以這是自由現金流加速的驅動力之一。我們還結束了工資稅延期問題,該問題在 20 年使我們受益,並在接下來的 2 年內作為資金流出。所以這將有利於'23 和'24。

  • On the kind of working capital side, as we've noted, 2019, '20 were very strong years of working capital efficiency. At this point, we've put our working capital metrics up against any in the industry. We're very proud of the efficiency of our balance sheet. And the next year that we see opportunities for continued enhancement there is largely 2024 due to the timing of some payment expectations in that year, incentive milestones and such. So again, no changes to the outlook there. Those are some of the key moving pieces, relatively stable on the working capital front in '22 and '23 before seeing those opportunities in '24.

    正如我們所指出的,在營運資金方面,2019 年 20 年是營運資金效率非常強勁的年份。在這一點上,我們已經將我們的營運資金指標與行業中的任何指標進行比較。我們為我們的資產負債表的效率感到非常自豪。明年我們看到繼續增強的機會主要是 2024 年,原因是那一年的一些付款預期的時間安排、激勵里程碑等。再說一次,那裡的前景沒有變化。這些是一些關鍵的推動因素,在 22 和 23 年的營運資金方面相對穩定,然後在 24 年看到這些機會。

  • And as we've noted, we do see expansion in the core business, both at the top line and the bottom line, supporting that outlook over the next few years as well.

    正如我們已經指出的那樣,我們確實看到核心業務的擴張,無論是在頂線還是底線,也支持未來幾年的前景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

  • Kathy, what have you seen in international markets? I mean, since the events in the Ukraine started to play out, we've heard from several NATO members that they're going to up their defense spending to 2% as a floor potentially, right? I mean Germany kind of doubled their defense budget over a weekend. So what have you seen on the international front and customer interest there? And then I have a follow-on after that.

    凱西,你在國際市場上看到了什麼?我的意思是,自從烏克蘭的事件開始上演以來,我們從幾個北約成員國那裡聽說,他們可能會將國防開支提高到 2%,對吧?我的意思是德國在周末的國防預算翻了一番。那麼,您在國際前沿和客戶興趣方面看到了什麼?然後我有一個後續。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Sure, Ron. Well, we've definitely seen interest pick up across Europe, and we've been engaging with customers there to understand their needs and timelines. Of course, we haven't seen a dramatic shift in immediate spending plans. Part of what I know each of the countries is thinking their way through is what the need is and then what their requests will be and what their reliance on U.S. product will be. So we expect that to be more of a '23, '24 time frame to get clarity and start to see real award opportunities.

    當然,羅恩。好吧,我們肯定看到整個歐洲的興趣都在增加,我們一直在與那裡的客戶接觸,以了解他們的需求和時間表。當然,我們還沒有看到即時支出計劃發生巨大變化。我知道每個國家正在考慮的部分內容是需求是什麼,然後他們的要求是什麼,以及他們對美國產品的依賴程度。因此,我們希望這更像是一個 '23、'24 的時間框架,以明確並開始看到真正的獎勵機會。

  • In the meantime, we are providing a good deal of support to Ukraine just in the sense of our assets being used either by the U.S. or our NATO partners to provide surveillance, intelligence and monitoring of the situation and as well providing some additional capabilities into Poland.

    與此同時,我們正在向烏克蘭提供大量支持,因為我們的資產被美國或我們的北約夥伴用來提供監視、情報和監測局勢,並為波蘭提供一些額外的能力.

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. And kind of the follow-on there, more domestically focused. Do you expect the -- Nuclear Posture Review, I guess, isn't out yet, and some changes in that, and what that could mean for GBSD and some of the other programs you're on in the wake of what's going on in Eastern Europe?

    知道了。知道了。還有一些後續,更關注國內。您是否期望--我猜,核態勢評估尚未發布,並且其中會發生一些變化,以及這對 GBSD 和您正在執行的其他一些計劃意味著什麼?東歐洲?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, even though the Nuclear Posture Review hasn't been fully released, there has been executive summary provided and the President has supported all three legs of the triad in the Nuclear Posture Review. As I was spending time on the Hill just this week, I still see very strong bipartisan support for all three legs of the triad. And to your point, I think that support has even grown in the last 2 months as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a recognition of the importance of the triad to contain that conflict. So we see that continuing to be a tailwind to the modernization programs that are underway.

    好吧,儘管《核態勢評估》尚未完全發布,但已經提供了執行摘要,並且總統在《核態勢評估》中支持了三合會的所有三個方面。就在我本週在山上度過的時候,我仍然看到兩黨對三合會的所有三個方面都有非常強大的支持。就你的觀點而言,我認為在過去的兩個月裡,由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及對三合會在遏制衝突中的重要性的認識,這種支持甚至有所增加。因此,我們認為這將繼續成為正在進行的現代化計劃的順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Mr. David Strauss with Barclays.

    下一個,我們有大衛施特勞斯先生與巴克萊銀行的線。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Kathy, you talked about the upside in the fiscal '22 enacted budget, the proposed '23 budgets, is there any way you can quantify what that might mean to your revenue growth trajectory in '23 and '24? I know it takes time to come through, but I guess relative to whatever you were thinking maybe 6 to 12 months ago, I mean, does this add 100 basis points? 200 basis points? Any sort of quantification you can give?

    凱西,您談到了 22 財年頒布的預算、擬議的 23 年預算中的優勢,您有什麼方法可以量化這對您在 23 年和 24 年的收入增長軌跡可能意味著什麼?我知道這需要時間來完成,但我想相對於你在 6 到 12 個月前的想法,我的意思是,這會增加 100 個基點嗎? 200個基點?你能給出什麼量化?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. David, as I mentioned in my remarks, we do expect our revenue growth to accelerate into 2023. Right now, we see that in line with 2023 consensus. It's really early even in this year, but we expect 2022 to be in low single-digit growth as we outlined in our guide and with the growth rate accelerating in the second half. So we do expect that momentum that we see in the second half of this year to carry into 2023. And of course, the 2023 President's budget is a good indication that demand for our products is holding up extremely well.

    是的。大衛,正如我在講話中提到的,我們確實預計我們的收入增長將加速到 2023 年。目前,我們認為這符合 2023 年的共識。即使在今年也真的很早,但我們預計 2022 年將保持低個位數增長,正如我們在指南中概述的那樣,並且下半年增長率會加快。因此,我們確實預計我們在今年下半年看到的這種勢頭將持續到 2023 年。當然,2023 年總統的預算很好地表明對我們產品的需求保持得非常好。

  • The one thing I would note is we're fairly mindful of the supply side challenges that continue. Certainly, we saw those most notably at the beginning of this year, and they have, in our case, really moderated as we looked at March and April performance. But we're keeping a close eye on everything from the tight labor market to inflation and COVID-related headwinds that could slow down our growth rate, even though we have strong budget support for our programs.

    我要指出的一件事是,我們相當注意持續存在的供應方面的挑戰。當然,我們在今年年初看到了最引人注目的那些,就我們而言,當我們查看 3 月和 4 月的表現時,它們確實有所緩和。但我們正在密切關注從緊張的勞動力市場到通貨膨脹和與 COVID 相關的不利因素,這些因素可能會減緩我們的增長率,儘管我們的計劃有強有力的預算支持。

  • So I'd sum all that up by saying there's reason for optimism, and we have optimism, but it's cautious optimism. And it's a bit early in the year for me to try to put a number on our 2023 growth rate given all of those puts and takes. But we'll certainly keep you updated on each quarterly call on our outlook for next year.

    所以我總結說有理由保持樂觀,我們有樂觀,但這是謹慎的樂觀。考慮到所有這些看跌期權,我現在嘗試對我們 2023 年的增長率給出一個數字還為時過早。但我們肯定會在每個季度電話會議上向您通報我們明年的展望。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful color. And as a follow-up, you offered a little bit more detail on B-21, so I thought I would ask this. It looks like in the budget, there is about a $2 billion funding increase in fiscal '23 versus the rate that -- the levels that we've seen over the last several years. I mean is that the kind of revenue growth kind of increase we're looking at B-21 looking out over the course of the next couple of years?

    好的。這是有用的顏色。作為後續,你提供了關於 B-21 的更多細節,所以我想我會問這個。看起來在預算中,與過去幾年我們看到的水平相比,23 財年的資金增加了大約 20 億美元。我的意思是,我們正在關注 B-21 在未來幾年內的那種收入增長嗎?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, the government is looking at layering production on top of EMD. And so what you can see in the FYDP is a pretty stark jump in '23 as production gets layered in. But of course, keep in mind, all of those dollars won't be spent in calendar year '23. And then there's not as pronounced a step up after that, but production funding still remains healthy as EMD starts to come down. And that's the profile we would typically see on a program like this. But it does project robust funding for B-21 through the decade. And we -- that is what we are anticipating as well.

    好吧,政府正在考慮在 EMD 之上分層生產。因此,您可以在 FYDP 中看到,隨著生產的分層,23 年的飛躍非常明顯。但當然,請記住,所有這些美元都不會在 23 日曆年花掉。在那之後並沒有那麼明顯的進步,但隨著 EMD 開始下降,生產資金仍然保持健康。這就是我們通常會在這樣的程序中看到的配置文件。但它確實在十年內為 B-21 提供了強大的資金。我們——這也是我們所期待的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

    下一個,我們有摩根大通的塞思·塞夫曼(Seth Seifman)的產品線。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Just starting off with a quick clarification earlier about the move to the 12% segment margin. When you talked about the mix change in Space, Kathy, was that -- I assume, was that getting more towards cost plus as you win new work and GBSD grows? And if so, is that a headwind? And if that's the case, what are the segments where you expect to see margin expansion?

    剛剛開始快速澄清一下轉向 12% 的細分利潤率。當你談到 Space 中的混合變化時,Kathy,是不是——我想,隨著你贏得新作品和 GBSD 的增長,這是否會更多地轉向成本加成?如果是這樣,那是逆風嗎?如果是這樣的話,您希望看到哪些細分市場的利潤增長?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. So I should have been more clear, and thanks for pointing that out. We do expect more cost-plus work in Space over the next couple of years as GBSD continues to grow. We're also executing on Next-Generation Interceptor, which is a big growth driver and then some assorted classified efforts that are in the development phase and continuing to scale as well.

    是的。所以我應該更清楚,感謝您指出這一點。隨著 GBSD 的持續增長,我們確實預計未來幾年在太空中會有更多成本加成的工作。我們還在執行下一代攔截器,這是一個巨大的增長驅動力,然後是一些處於開發階段並繼續擴展的各種分類工作。

  • In terms of other businesses that are moving in the opposite direction, so stronger margin rates, Aeronautics is one that we see having stronger margin rates, you already see that in our guide for this year being higher than last. And we anticipate that we'll continue to see strong and healthy margin rates there.

    至於其他正朝著相反方向發展的業務,因此利潤率更高,航空業是我們認為利潤率更高的業務,您已經在我們的指南中看到這一點高於去年。我們預計我們將繼續在那裡看到強勁和健康的保證金率。

  • Defense and Mission Systems already perform at very strong margin rates, so we expect that to continue. But the real offset that we see is Space and Aero. And I will also say that in Space, we've seen the bulk of that pressure already because keep in mind, while GBSD will continue to grow in the EMD phase, not to the extent that we've seen, it went from a couple hundred million a year to over $2 billion and so -- over this time period, and the majority of that will already have happened through the '22 period.

    國防和任務系統已經以非常高的利潤率表現,因此我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。但我們看到的真正偏移是太空和航空。而且我還要說,在太空中,我們已經看到了大部分壓力,因為請記住,雖然 GBSD 將在 EMD 階段繼續增長,而不是我們所看到的程度,它來自幾個每年億美元到超過 20 億美元等等——在這段時間裡,其中大部分將在 22 年期間發生。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. And then just a quick follow-up on rocket motors and launch First of all, it seems like there's some friction in the supply chain for rocket motors based on some comments this past week. I assume that's not Northrop Grumman, but do you see any opportunity to take share as a result?

    偉大的。然後只是對火箭發動機和發射的快速跟進 首先,根據上週的一些評論,火箭發動機的供應鏈似乎存在一些摩擦。我認為那不是諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司,但你認為有機會因此分享嗎?

  • And secondly, is there any supply chain or other friction for the Northrop Space business as a result of disruption in the space supply chain from the war in Ukraine?

    其次,由於烏克蘭戰爭導致太空供應鏈中斷,諾斯羅普太空業務是否存在供應鍊或其他摩擦?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. So there's a lot to unpack there. Let me start with the commentary around rocket motor providers. We are performing well across the board for our primes and we do not believe that any comments that were made relate to Northrop Grumman performance. We continue to offer our capability to any who would like to have our rocket motors and we're going to continue to do that. And we're investing in that business to make sure that we are a good and stable performer and provider.

    是的。所以那裡有很多東西要解壓。讓我從圍繞火箭發動機供應商的評論開始。我們在全方面表現良好,我們認為任何評論都與諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的表現無關。我們繼續向任何想擁有我們的火箭發動機的人提供我們的能力,我們將繼續這樣做。我們正在對該業務進行投資,以確保我們是一個良好且穩定的表現者和供應商。

  • In terms of our exposure to Ukraine and Russian rocket motors, we do have some exposure on our CRS contract. So this is where, through our Antares launch vehicle, we procure rocket motors from Russia and cores from Ukraine. We have what we need for the next two launches. And so there isn't immediate disruption. And we have a plan in place that we could use other sources, if needed, beyond those two launches. But of course, it's our preference to keep the relationship intact between Russia and the U.S. around the space station, and that's what these rocket motors are used for to take cargo to the International Space Station. But we are working closely with NASA to make sure we're following the U.S. government lead in that case.

    就我們對烏克蘭和俄羅斯火箭發動機的敞口而言,我們的 CRS 合同確實有一些敞口。這就是我們通過 Antares 運載火箭從俄羅斯採購火箭發動機和從烏克蘭採購核心的地方。我們有接下來兩次發射所需的東西。因此不會立即中斷。我們制定了一個計劃,如果需要,除了這兩次發射之外,我們還可以使用其他資源。但當然,我們更願意在空間站周圍保持俄羅斯和美國之間的關係完好無損,這就是這些火箭發動機用於將貨物運送到國際空間站的原因。但我們正在與 NASA 密切合作,以確保我們在這種情況下遵循美國政府的領導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個,我們有摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag 線。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • And Kathy, taking a 30,000-foot view, I mean the outlook for defense in the U.S. and our allies is positive. You're on two legs of the nuclear triad, and there's clear bipartisan support for these programs. Free cash flow is stable. I mean, when you take a step back, the company's future is pretty visible here. And with the FTC blocking the Lockheed Aerojet Rocketdyne deal, large M&A seems to be off the table for now. The company, so Northrop had bought back about half of its shares outstanding in the past 15 years. If the priority is still buybacks, at some point in the distant future, there may not be any more stock to buy. How do you think about long-term uses of cash, especially as free cash flow remains positive and you've got so much visibility?

    凱西,從 30,000 英尺的高度來看,我的意思是美國和我們盟國的防御前景是積極的。你處於核三合會的兩條腿上,這些計劃得到了兩黨的明確支持。自由現金流穩定。我的意思是,當你退後一步時,公司的未來在這裡非常明顯。隨著 FTC 阻止洛克希德 Aerojet Rocketdyne 的交易,大型併購似乎暫時無法進行。該公司,因此諾斯羅普在過去 15 年中回購了大約一半的流通股。如果優先事項仍然是回購,那麼在遙遠的將來的某個時候,可能沒有更多的股票可供購買。您如何看待現金的長期使用,特別是在自由現金流保持正數並且您擁有如此多的知名度的情況下?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, it's an excellent strategic question, Kristine, and one that we spend a good deal of time thinking about. And I will say our first priority is investing in the business. And you have seen us invest at an elevated level, both CapEx as well as our R&D as a percentage of sales over the last several years. And we are not backing away from that core part of our strategy.

    嗯,這是一個極好的戰略問題,克里斯汀,我們花了很多時間思考的問題。我會說我們的首要任務是投資業務。您已經看到我們在過去幾年的資本支出和研發佔銷售額的百分比都在較高水平上進行投資。我們並沒有放棄我們戰略的核心部分。

  • I noted when I laid out our strategic plan that technology leadership and innovation is core to how we have attained the position that we're in and in my view, will be the most important factor to retaining that position of strength. And so we will continue to invest in our business.

    我在製定我們的戰略計劃時指出,技術領先和創新是我們如何獲得我們所處位置的核心,在我看來,這將是保持這一優勢地位的最重要因素。因此,我們將繼續投資於我們的業務。

  • But with that said, strong cash flows, and as you noted, a strong outlook for growth to fuel those cash flows gives us a lot of optionality in our capital deployment strategy. We do believe that at some point, M&A may come back on the table. But for the immediate term, as you said, large needle-moving M&A is likely not to be a strategy that we can execute.

    但話雖如此,強勁的現金流,正如你所指出的,為這些現金流提供動力的強勁增長前景為我們的資本部署戰略提供了很多選擇餘地。我們確實相信,在某個時候,併購可能會重新出現。但就近期而言,正如你所說,大型併購可能不是我們可以執行的策略。

  • And so we are looking at returning capital to our shareholders at this important time through a competitive dividend and share buyback. We do tend to prefer share repurchase in this environment to give us a little more flexibility as environmental factors change. But share repurchase is still a core part of our strategy, but it's by no means the only method that we believe we create value for shareholders, and we stay focused on investing in our company.

    因此,我們正在考慮在這個重要時刻通過有競爭力的股息和股票回購向股東返還資本。我們確實傾向於在這種環境下進行股票回購,以便隨著環境因素的變化給我們更多的靈活性。但股票回購仍然是我們戰略的核心部分,但絕不是我們認為我們為股東創造價值的唯一方法,我們將繼續專注於投資我們的公司。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

    下一個,我們有 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen 的台詞。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • So I recall on the Q4 call that you talked about book-to-bill being, I believe, 1 or a little below 1 this year. You started out strong, particularly in Space. Could you tell us how has that changed? Can you -- any thought you could be above 1? And how should we think about all the areas because Space looks like it's on its way to being well above 1.

    所以我記得在第四季度的電話會議上,你談到今年的訂單到賬單是 1 或略低於 1。你一開始很強大,尤其是在太空中。你能告訴我們這有什麼變化嗎?你能 - 有沒有想過你可能會超過 1?以及我們應該如何考慮所有領域,因為 Space 看起來正朝著遠高於 1 的方向發展。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, Cai. We do not expect book-to-bill to be over 1 this year. It is off to a stronger start than we expected. And so we'll be clear, it is likely to be higher than we anticipated coming into the year, but still don't see it crossing the 1.0 threshold. And Space is a key driver, as you've noted, of that strength but we see broad strength in bookings this year beyond what we had expected some nice competitive wins in our Defense Systems business and our Aero business also having strong awards, particularly as we look to book Lot 15 aggregate demand on F-35 this year.

    是的,蔡。我們預計今年的帳單比不會超過 1。這是一個比我們預期的更強勁的開端。所以我們會很清楚,它可能會高於我們今年的預期,但仍然沒有看到它超過 1.0 的門檻。正如您所指出的,太空是這種優勢的關鍵驅動因素,但我們看到今年的預訂量普遍超過我們預期的國防系統業務和航空業務也獲得了豐厚的獎項,特別是在我們希望在今年預訂 F-35 的 Lot 15 總需求。

  • What we look at, and I've mentioned this on prior calls, is a multiyear book-to-bill. And so having a portfolio where we've brought in some very sizable long-term awards like B-21 and GBSD, we have a backward-looking book-to-bill over 1.2 aggregate for the last 3 years. And so we don't expect to have that kind of performance in book-to-bill every year, but we still expect our 4-year average once we take '22 into consideration to be well over 1.1. So sustaining the backlog growth that we need to fuel the business growth we anticipate.

    我們所看到的,我在之前的電話會議中提到過,是多年的帳單。因此,我們在投資組合中獲得了一些非常可觀的長期獎項,如 B-21 和 GBSD,過去 3 年我們的賬面比總額超過 1.2。因此,我們預計不會在每年的帳單到帳單方面都有這種表現,但我們仍然預計,一旦我們考慮到 22 年,我們的 4 年平均值將遠高於 1.1。因此,維持我們需要推動我們預期的業務增長的積壓增長。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Very good. And sort of as a follow-up, we have a strong FY '22 appropriation, we have a big '23 request, which everyone expects to be plused up by Congress. Any color as you think about going forward? Is that book-to-bill likely to be -- is your best guess that it goes up over the next couple of years? And any color you could provide would be great.

    很好。作為後續行動,我們有一個強大的 22 財年撥款,我們有一個很大的 '23 要求,每個人都希望得到國會的支持。您對前進的看法有什麼顏色嗎?帳單到帳單是否可能——你最好的猜測是它在接下來的幾年裡會上升嗎?你能提供的任何顏色都會很棒。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • I would just say that we see an environment where we can keep that multi-year average well above 1.

    我只想說,我們看到了一個可以將多年平均值保持在遠高於 1 的環境。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Myles Walton with UBS.

    下一個,我們有邁爾斯沃爾頓與瑞銀的線。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • First one, just a clarification maybe for Dave. The 100% free cash flow return to investors in '22, is that before the amortization tax impact? Or how does that work?

    第一個,也許只是對戴夫的澄清。 22 年向投資者提供的 100% 自由現金流回報是在攤銷稅影響之前嗎?或者它是如何工作的?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the clarification, Myles. That is independent of the Section 174 determination. So we intend to return at least 100% of free cash flow in either case, whether it is deferred or not.

    謝謝你的澄清,邁爾斯。這與第 174 條的決定無關。因此,無論是否延期,我們都打算在任何一種情況下都至少返還 100% 的自由現金流。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So if it is deferred, would you return the guided number that is not adjusted for the tax, so that is 2.5 to 2.8? Or would you just be signing up to 100%?

    那麼如果延期了,你會不會返還沒有針對稅收進行調整的引導數,也就是 2.5 到 2.8?還是您只是要 100% 註冊?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • That's correct. So we have roughly $1 billion run rate on the dividend side. We've committed to $1.5 billion of share repurchase. And so you can take from that, that there would be incremental potential if Section 174 were deferred.

    這是正確的。因此,我們在股息方面的運行率約為 10 億美元。我們已承諾進行 15 億美元的股票回購。因此,您可以從中得出,如果第 174 條被推遲,將會有增加的潛力。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Kathy, is it within -- in terms of supply chain issues, everybody sees something, are you seeing it within Defense systems as it relates to some of the munitions? Is that sort of where you might be seeing it? Or it doesn't look like you're being terribly affected? Or you're forecasting it better than most? So maybe just give some color there.

    好的。然後,凱西,它是否在內部——就供應鏈問題而言,每個人都看到了一些東西,你是否在與某些彈藥相關的國防系統中看到了它?你可能會在那種地方看到它嗎?或者看起來你並沒有受到很大的影響?或者你的預測比大多數人都好?所以也許只是在那裡給一些顏色。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So Myles, I wouldn't point to any one part of our business where we are seeing dramatic impacts. Aero, where we have high volume line in F-35, we saw it last year, and we talked about that quite clearly. As we got into the first quarter of this year, and the plan that we laid in place, we are meeting that plan on F-35, but there was impact. And we still are working to address that impact on the F-35. Other than that, there's really no single program or area of the business that I'd point to just a little bit of sluggish attendance coming into this year due to COVID cases, some light impacts on electronics supply both to Mission Systems and Defense Systems, but nothing material enough to really call out individually.

    所以邁爾斯,我不會指出我們業務的任何一個部分,我們看到了巨大的影響。 Aero,我們在 F-35 中有大批量生產線,我們去年看到了它,我們非常清楚地談到了這一點。隨著我們進入今年第一季度,以及我們制定的計劃,我們正在實現 F-35 的計劃,但產生了影響。我們仍在努力解決對 F-35 的影響。除此之外,實際上沒有任何一個項目或業務領域可以指出,由於 COVID 病例,今年的出勤率會略有下降,對任務系統和國防系統的電子供應都有一些輕微影響,但沒有任何材料足以真正單獨呼籲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

    下一個是 Robert Spingarn 和 Melius Research 的產品線。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • You've given us really great incremental detail on B-21, but I just wanted to perhaps flesh this out a little bit further, if you can and talk about the revenue cadence with EMD. When EMD and LRIP overlap, are we going to have a peak revenue year? Or does the LRIP grow enough and the EMD is small enough that its -- we should see growth through the rest of the decade?

    您已經為我們提供了關於 B-21 的非常好的增量細節,但我只是想進一步充實這一點,如果可以的話,並與 EMD 討論收入節奏。當 EMD 和 LRIP 重疊時,我們會迎來收入高峰嗎?或者 LRIP 是否增長到足夠大,而 EMD 是否足夠小,以至於我們應該在這十年的剩餘時間裡看到增長?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, I would point you to the FYDP. So the budget does not show a peak revenue year through fiscal year 2027. So I can't provide you much more than that because quantities and the like are classified. But if you just look at what was in the -- what the administration submitted. Now, of course, this has to go through appropriations, and it's always subject to annual revision as well. But what was submitted this year for the 5-year outlook does not show a peak year through 2027. Does that help?

    好吧,我會指出你的 FYDP。所以預算沒有顯示到 2027 財年的收入高峰年。所以我不能提供更多信息,因為數量等是分類的。但是,如果您只看一下政府提交的內容。現在,當然,這必須通過撥款,而且它也總是受到年度修訂。但今年提交的 5 年展望並未顯示到 2027 年的峰值年份。這有幫助嗎?

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • Okay. And then -- and just based on what you talked about with profitability and relative to EMD margins, would it be fair to assume that the profit cadence is not the same as the revenue cadence? In other words, the margin mix, the margins would drop at some point because of the switch in contract.

    好的。然後 - 僅基於您談到的盈利能力和相對於 EMD 利潤率的內容,假設利潤節奏與收入節奏不同是否公平?換句話說,保證金組合,由於合同轉換,保證金會在某個時候下降。

  • And then just, Kathy, as a follow-up to that, do you think possibly going forward, we'll see less fixed price development on new contracts? Just not so much focused on B-21, but what we're seeing elsewhere in the industry across the industry on all the charges on a lot of these programs.

    然後,凱西,作為後續行動,您認為未來我們會看到新合同的固定價格發展減少嗎?只是沒有那麼多關注 B-21,而是我們在整個行業的其他地方看到的關於許多這些項目的所有費用的情況。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, I can't really comment on B-21 mix of EMD and production rate. And so let me go straight to your broader strategic question, which is an important one on whether the government will likely shift away from fixed price development.

    好吧,我真的不能評論 B-21 的 EMD 和生產率的組合。所以讓我直接談談你更廣泛的戰略問題,這是一個關於政府是否可能會放棄固定價格發展的重要問題。

  • I do believe that there will be a shift away. And I think we've already seen that to a large degree. And frankly, B-21, while we were asked to bid fixed-price LRIP, we did not have a fixed-price development phase of that program. And there's a very important distinction in my mind between production, even early stages of production at fixed price and the development phase being at fixed price. And of course, GBSD is a cost-plus development program.

    我相信會有一個轉變。我認為我們已經在很大程度上看到了這一點。坦率地說,B-21,雖然我們被要求投標固定價格的 LRIP,但我們沒有該計劃的固定價格開發階段。在我看來,生產(甚至是固定價格的早期生產階段)和開發階段的固定價格之間有一個非常重要的區別。當然,GBSD 是一個成本加成的開發項目。

  • So that's why I suggest that we are already seeing a shift on major weapons systems development to a cost-plus development phase, which, in my mind, has always been the right approach for the government to contract for development. By definition, there is inherent technology development and risk associated with that phase and you want to be able to apply resources to reduce that risk into production.

    所以這就是為什麼我建議我們已經看到主要武器系統開發向成本加成開發階段的轉變,在我看來,這一直是政府承包開發的正確方法。根據定義,該階段存在固有的技術開發和風險,您希望能夠應用資源來降低生產中的風險。

  • And if the government doesn't have that latitude because they are set at fixed price, then the contractor has to do that, often out of their own profit, which is really tough decisions to make. And I think it impacts the ability then for the program to be successful over the full life cycle.

    如果政府因為固定價格而沒有這種自由度,那麼承包商必須這樣做,通常是出於他們自己的利潤,這確實是一個艱難的決定。我認為這會影響程序在整個生命週期中取得成功的能力。

  • And of course, the majority of the government's costs are in the production and sustainment phases of the life cycle, not development. But I think the government recognizes this and it's why we've seen a shift away from fixed price development on these large weapon systems. Now there still will be some fixed price development in the system, but I don't see it being a material driver.

    當然,政府的大部分成本都在生命週期的生產和維持階段,而不是開發階段。但我認為政府認識到了這一點,這就是為什麼我們看到這些大型武器系統不再採用固定價格開發。現在系統中仍然會有一些固定價格的發展,但我不認為它是一個物質驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • Dave, I wanted to ask unbilled receivables were up like $600 million in the quarter. Now does that reflect the F-35 work that you've done, but you can't show as revenues yet until the Lot 15 to 17 contract is signed? And if so, then that $600 million first quarter revenues then will help sometime later in the year? So if you just comment on that.

    戴夫,我想問一下,本季度未開票的應收賬款增加了 6 億美元。現在這是否反映了您已完成的 F-35 工作,但在簽訂 Lot 15 至 17 合同之前您還不能顯示為收入?如果是這樣,那麼第一季度 6 億美元的收入會在今年晚些時候有所幫助嗎?因此,如果您對此發表評論。

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the question, George. No is the short answer. The unbilled receivable growth is not directly related to F-35 or any one other program in the portfolio. Rather, I would point you to the common seasonality that we tend to see in the first quarter, given the timing of receipts in that case. And more broadly speaking about free cash flow seasonality, the timing of payments as well.

    謝謝你的問題,喬治。不,是簡短的回答。未開票的應收賬款增長與 F-35 或投資組合中的任何其他項目沒有直接關係。相反,考慮到在這種情況下的收款時間,我會指出我們在第一季度往往會看到的常見季節性。更廣泛地說,關於自由現金流的季節性,以及付款時間。

  • We tend to have an outflow in the first quarter of the year, and this year is almost exactly in line with the average of the last 4 or 5 years. So no significant single items there. On F-35, the P&L sales and other lines were not affected by the timing of contract negotiations to your point, nor would they be anticipated to be in a meaningful way through the end of this year.

    我們傾向於在今年第一季度出現資金外流,而今年幾乎與過去 4 或 5 年的平均值完全一致。所以那裡沒有重要的單項。在 F-35 上,損益表銷售和其他項目不受您所指的合同談判時間的影響,預計到今年年底它們也不會以有意義的方式出現。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • Because I noticed, I mean, the unbilled receivables were up like about double what they were in last year's first quarter. That's part of the reason for the question.

    因為我注意到,我的意思是,未開票的應收賬款大約是去年第一季度的兩倍。這是問題的部分原因。

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • No. I appreciate the question. Last year's first quarter was actually the anomaly there where we had a stronger free cash flow result and working capital change in the first quarter of the year than we had, had in any of the prior 5 or 6. And so this year is more in line with history, so it's a very good point. Last year was the unusual one.

    不,我很欣賞這個問題。去年第一季度實際上是異常情況,我們在今年第一季度的自由現金流結果和營運資本變化比我們之前的 5 或 6 年中的任何一個都要強。所以今年更多的是符合歷史,所以這是一個很好的觀點。去年是不尋常的一年。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • Okay. And then just one for you, Kathy. I mean Defense looks like it's going to be the weaker business going forward. It's one of your smaller businesses. You consider divestiture of any pieces of that business?

    好的。然後只給你一個,凱西。我的意思是,國防看起來將是未來較弱的業務。這是您的小型企業之一。您考慮剝離該業務的任何部分嗎?

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, George, as you know, we did look at the entirety of our portfolio and divested the IT services business that was in Defense. And we were very intentional and thoughtful about that. But we looked at the rest of the portfolio and feel that it has nice synergy with our business, and we do see opportunity to grow that business. Just a little bit of reset here that, that business is experiencing but the weapons portfolio continues to grow, and we have nice synergy between the aircraft sustainment and modernization and our Aeronautics business. And our IBCS portfolio sits in there, and we absolutely, as that program now is maturing and we've won full rate production see growth there. So we're happy with the portfolio, a little bit of transition to growth that we're still working our way through here. But no, nothing else that I would look to divest in that portfolio right now.

    好吧,喬治,如您所知,我們確實查看了我們的整個投資組合,並剝離了國防領域的 IT 服務業務。我們對此非常有意識和深思熟慮。但我們查看了投資組合的其餘部分,覺得它與我們的業務有很好的協同作用,我們確實看到了發展該業務的機會。只是一點點重置,該業務正在經歷,但武器組合繼續增長,我們在飛機維持和現代化與我們的航空業務之間有很好的協同作用。我們的 IBCS 產品組合就在那裡,我們絕對是,因為該計劃現在正在成熟,我們已經贏得了全速生產,在那裡看到了增長。因此,我們對投資組合感到滿意,我們仍在努力實現向增長的一點過渡。但是,不,我現在不會考慮從該投資組合中剝離其他任何東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have the line of Richard Safran with Seaport Research.

    下一個,我們有 Seaport Research 的 Richard Safran 的產品線。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • A lot has been asked already, and so I have a general question regarding one of Dave's opening remarks. With respect to major platforms and systems, you've rapidly gained a lot of share, a number of programs in development. You've been talking about it all morning. Now historically, one problem that comes along with that is having to use the A team than the B team, et cetera, and all the while maintaining execution, which, by the way, just judging from the incentive fee on the B-21 is actually pretty darn good. Now there are still opportunities out there. So my question is, is Northrop's plates full?

    已經問了很多問題,所以我有一個關於戴夫開場白的一般性問題。在主要平台和系統方面,你們迅速獲得了大量份額,許多程序正在開發中。你整個上午都在談論它。現在從歷史上看,隨之而來的一個問題是必須使用 A 團隊而不是 B 團隊,等等,並且一直保持執行力,順便說一下,從 B-21 的獎勵費來看是實際上非常好。現在還是有機會的。所以我的問題是,諾斯羅普的盤子滿了嗎?

  • Dave, you mentioned labor, do both of you feel you have sufficient resources to support bringing on additional programs and still maintain the current level of execution?

    戴夫,你提到了勞動力,你們是否都覺得你們有足夠的資源來支持增加額外的項目並且仍然保持目前的執行水平?

  • David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

    David F. Keffer - Corporate VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the questions. Certainly, those are topics and priorities that are front of mind for us these days. You heard both Kathy and I comment in the opening remarks about the criticality of execution and labor, our people, our resources, the hearts and minds of this company are at the center of our execution capability.

    感謝您的提問。當然,這些都是我們現在最關心的話題和優先事項。你聽到了凱西和我在開場白中關於執行和勞動的重要性的評論,我們的員工、我們的資源、這家公司的心靈和思想是我們執行能力的核心。

  • To your point, we've demonstrated ourselves well over the last few years of execution efficiency of maintaining cost and schedule on many key programs. And we devote a lot of resources to that. I wouldn't say that we're at a point where we're at capacity, where we couldn't take on additional work. We're certainly devoting all potential resources to bringing additional capacity on board and have ramped significantly over the last few years, both in headcount and key supplier relationships, so that's certainly a priority for us. Certainly, we're spending a lot of time in that area today, but we're eager to continue to meet the key demands of our customers and feel that we're well aligned with those areas of demand in the budget outlook as we've described on the call.

    就您而言,在過去幾年中,我們已經很好地證明了自己在許多關鍵項目上維持成本和進度的執行效率。我們為此投入了大量資源。我不會說我們已經到了無法承擔額外工作的地步。我們肯定會投入所有潛在資源來增加產能,並且在過去幾年中,無論是在員工人數還是在關鍵供應商關係方面都顯著增加,所以這當然是我們的首要任務。當然,我們今天在該領域花費了大量時間,但我們渴望繼續滿足客戶的關鍵需求,並認為我們在預算前景中與這些需求領域保持一致,因為我們我在電話中描述了。

  • Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

    Kathy J. Warden - Chairman, CEO & President

  • And that's probably a good place to leave it. I think we are blessed to have a lot of A teams. So thanks, everybody, for calling in today and listening to our call. As always, we wish you well and look forward to talking to you again in July. Take care.

    那可能是離開它的好地方。我認為我們很幸運擁有很多 A 隊。所以,謝謝大家今天打電話來聽我們的電話。一如既往,我們祝您一切順利,並期待在 7 月再次與您交談。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。