微軟 (MSFT) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收 $77.7B,年增 18%;EPS $4.13,年增 23%;Microsoft Cloud 營收 $49.1B,年增 26%,均優於預期
    • Q2 指引:營收 $79.5B-$80.6B,年增 14%-16%;CapEx 增速預計 FY26 高於 FY25,反映 AI/雲端需求加速
    • 盤後市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調需求超預期、RPO 與 bookings 創新高,持續領先同業
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 平台與 Copilot 家族推動產品滲透,AI 相關月活用戶達 9 億,Copilot 月活超過 1.5 億
      • Azure AI 服務與資料中心規模大幅擴張,全年 AI 容量預計增長 80%,兩年內資料中心面積翻倍
      • OpenAI 合作深化,帶來 $250B Azure 合約承諾,並延長 IP 與 API 獨家權益
      • M365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot、Security Copilot 等高價值領域產品快速成長,帶動 ARPU 與用戶數提升
    • 風險:
      • AI 基礎建設投資大幅增加,短期毛利率受壓,且 Azure 供應持續短缺,部分需求無法即時滿足
      • 大型 AI 合約集中度提升,需持續關注客戶履約能力與集中風險
      • LinkedIn Talent Solutions 受招聘市場疲弱影響,成長動能有限
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Microsoft Cloud 營收:$49.1B,YoY +26%
    • 商業 RPO:$392B,YoY +51%,平均合約年限約 2 年
    • Azure 及其他雲端服務營收:YoY +40%
    • M365 Commercial Cloud 營收:YoY +17%,付費座席 YoY +6%
    • M365 Consumer 訂閱:YoY +7%,超過 9,000 萬
    • LinkedIn 營收:YoY +10%
    • Dynamics 365 營收:YoY +18%
    • Fabric(數據分析)營收:YoY +60%,付費客戶 28,000
    • SQL DB Hyperscale 營收:YoY +75%;Cosmos DB +50%
    • Entra 月活用戶:10 億
    • Purview Copilot 互動:QoQ +72%,達 160 億次
    • Xbox 內容與服務營收:YoY +1%,Minecraft 月活 1.55 億創新高
  4. 財務預測
    • Q2 營收預估 $79.5B-$80.6B,YoY +14%-16%
    • Q2 Microsoft Cloud 毛利率預估約 66%,YoY 下滑,主因 AI 投資與 Azure 業務占比提升
    • CapEx 預計 FY26 增速高於 FY25,Q1 CapEx $34.9B,約半數用於 GPU/CPU 等短期資產
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: AGI 或 AI 架構演進是否會削弱微軟現有優勢?管理層對未來 AI 發展的風險與機會看法?
      A: Satya 表示對 OpenAI 新協議與 IP 關係有信心,強調 AI 系統仍處於『鋸齒型智慧』階段,微軟聚焦打造多代理人系統(如 Copilot、GitHub Agent HQ),能平滑模型能力落差,持續為客戶創造價值,對未來 AI 進展與微軟定位有高度信心。
    • Q: Bookings 與 RPO 大幅成長,是否有集中度風險?RPO 組成與可持續性如何?
      A: Amy 強調 RPO 涵蓋多產品、多客戶,平均年限僅 2 年,反映客戶短期內有實際使用需求,OpenAI 雖為重要客戶但僅為一部分,RPO 組成具廣度且消化速度快,顯示需求真實且分散。
    • Q: AI 基礎建設投資是否過度?如何確保投資與需求匹配,避免泡沫風險?
      A: Amy 說明短期資產(GPU/CPU)折舊與合約期間高度匹配,且目前需求持續超預期,產品用量與新產品推廣速度快,現階段仍供不應求,投資信心來自於已簽約業務與實際用量。Satya 補充,資料中心建設具彈性與現代化,軟硬體效率持續提升,AI 產品 ARPU 具擴張性,長期看好資本與研發投入回報。
    • Q: OpenAI 投資在其他收入的會計處理細節?Q1 是否受新協議影響?
      A: Amy 明確表示 Q1 並未受新協議影響,其他收入增加完全來自 OpenAI 按權益法認列的損失,無其他會計變動。
    • Q: AI 合約集中度高,如何評估客戶履約能力與分散風險?
      A: Satya 表示微軟雲端資產具高度彈性,客戶組合涵蓋 1P/3P、企業與數位原生客戶,長期將更分散,現階段大型合約有助規模化,未來企業採用將持續提升。Amy 補充,資料中心資產可根據合約交付時程調整,RPO 組成已考慮集中度與交付風險。
    • Q: Azure 容量短缺對營收的實際影響?是否有客戶流失風險?
      A: Amy 表示 Azure 受容量限制影響最大,優先資源分配給 M365 Copilot、Security、GitHub 等高價值應用,雖難精確量化損失,但若容量充足營收可更高,持續努力擴充以滿足需求。
    • Q: 對於有傳聞其他 hyperscaler 搶走大單,微軟如何看待業務選擇與長期價值?
      A: Satya 強調微軟聚焦打造全球彈性資源池,對於過度集中、利潤結構不佳或不符長期策略的需求會選擇性承接,重視長期平台價值與多元變現管道,對決策方向感到滿意。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Microsoft fiscal year 2026 first-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加微軟2026財年第一季財報電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce Jonathan Neilson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我榮幸地向大家介紹投資者關係副總裁喬納森·尼爾森。請繼續。

  • Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer; Alice Jolla, Chief Accounting Officer; and Keith Dolliver, Corporate Secretary and Deputy General Counsel.

    下午好,感謝各位今天蒞臨。與我一同通話的有:董事長兼執行長薩蒂亞‧納德拉;財務長艾米‧胡德;首席會計官愛麗絲‧喬拉;以及公司秘書兼副總法律顧問基斯‧多利弗。

  • On the Microsoft Investor Relations website, we will provide our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed outlook slides will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.

    在微軟投資者關係網站上,我們將提供我們的獲利新聞稿和財務摘要幻燈片,旨在補充我們準備好的發言稿,並提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的調節表。更詳細的展望幻燈片將在微軟投資者關係網站上提供。

  • On this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's first-quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.

    本次電話會議,我們將討論一些非GAAP專案。所提供的非GAAP財務指標不應被視為替代或優於依照GAAP編製的財務績效指標。列入這些項目是為了補充說明,幫助投資人進一步了解公司第一季的業績,以及這些項目和活動對財務表現的影響。

  • All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless otherwise noted. We will also provide growth rates in constant currency when available as a framework for assessing how our underlying business performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only.

    除非另有說明,我們今天在電話會議上所做的所有成長比較均與去年同期相關。我們也將提供以固定匯率計算的成長率(如有),作為評估我們基礎業務表現的框架,排除外匯匯率波動的影響。如果以固定匯率計算的成長率相同,我們將只提及成長率。

  • We will post our prepared remarks to our website. Today's call is being recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.

    我們將把準備好的發言稿發佈到我們的網站上。今天的通話將會被錄音。如果您提出問題,該問題將包含在我們的直播節目中、節目文字稿中,以及錄音的任何未來用途。您可以造訪微軟投資者關係網站,重播此電話會議並查看會議記錄。

  • During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將發表前瞻性聲明,即對未來事件的預測、展望或其他聲明。這些陳述是基於當前的預期和假設,但存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與預期有重大差異,因為今天發布的獲利新聞稿、本次電話會議中的評論以及我們在 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告和文件中「風險因素」部分討論的因素都與預期存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Satya.

    接下來,我將把電話交給薩蒂亞。

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Jonathan. It was a very strong start to our fiscal year. Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $49 billion, up 26% year over year. And our commercial RPO increased over 50% to nearly $400 billion with a weighted average duration of only two years. We are seeing increasing demand and diffusion of our AI platform and family of Copilots, which is fueling our investments across both capital and talent.

    謝謝你,喬納森。本財年開局非常強勁。微軟雲端營收超過 490 億美元,年增 26%。我們的商業 RPO 成長超過 50%,達到近 4,000 億美元,加權平均持續時間僅兩年。我們看到市場對我們的人工智慧平台和Copilot系列產品的需求不斷增長,這推動了我們在資本和人才方面的投資。

  • When it comes to infrastructure, we're building a planet-scale cloud and an AI factory, maximizing tokens per dollar per watt while supporting the sovereignty needs of customers and countries. We are innovating rapidly across the family of Copilots spanning the high-value domains of information work, coding, security, science, health, and consumer.

    在基礎設施方面,我們正在建造一個全球規模的雲端和一個人工智慧工廠,在滿足客戶和國家主權需求的同時,最大限度地提高每美元每瓦的代幣收益。我們正在 Copilot 系列產品中快速創新,這些產品涵蓋資訊工作、編碼、安全、科學、健康和消費等高價值領域。

  • And as you saw yesterday, we closed a new definitive agreement with OpenAI, marking the next chapter in what is one of the most successful partnerships and investments our industry has ever seen. This is a great milestone for both companies, and we continue to benefit mutually from each other's growth across multiple dimensions.

    正如您昨天所看到的,我們與 OpenAI 達成了一項新的最終協議,標誌著我們行業有史以來最成功的合作關係和投資之一進入了新的篇章。這對兩家公司來說都是一個重要的里程碑,我們將繼續在多個方面從彼此的發展中互惠互利。

  • Already, we have roughly 10x-ed our investment. OpenAI has contracted an incremental $250 billion of Azure services, our rev share, exclusive IP rights and API exclusivity for Azure continue until AGI or through 2030. And we have extended the model and product IP rights through 2032. And we are also energized to innovate and pursue AI advancements with both talent and compute investments that have real-world impact.

    目前,我們的投資已經獲得了約 10 倍的回報。OpenAI 已簽訂價值 2500 億美元的 Azure 服務合同,我們對 Azure 的收入分成、獨家智慧財產權和 API 獨佔權將持續到 AGI 或 2030 年。我們已將該模型和產品的智慧財產權延長至 2032 年。我們也充滿熱情地進行創新,並透過人才和運算方面的投資,追求人工智慧的進步,從而產生實際影響。

  • With that, let's turn to our momentum across our AI platform and Copilots as well as with agents. We have the most expansive data center fleet for the AI era, and we are adding capacity at an unprecedented scale. We will increase our total AI capacity by over 80% this year and roughly double our total data center footprint over the next two years, reflecting the demand signals we see. Just this quarter, we announced the world's most powerful AI data center, Fairwater in Wisconsin, which will go online next year and scale to 2 gigawatts alone.

    接下來,讓我們來看看我們在人工智慧平台、Copilots 以及代理商方面取得的進展。我們擁有人工智慧時代規模最大的資料中心集群,並且正在以前所未有的規模增加容量。今年我們將把人工智慧總容量提高 80% 以上,並在未來兩年內將資料中心總規模擴大近一倍,以反映我們所看到的需求訊號。就在本季度,我們宣布了全球最強大的 AI 資料中心——位於威斯康辛州的 Fairwater,該中心將於明年上線,僅容量就將達到 2 吉瓦。

  • And we have deployed the world's first large-scale cluster of NVIDIA GB300s. We are building a fungible fleet that's been continuously modernized and spans all stages of the AI life cycle from pretraining to post training to synthetic data generation and inference. And it also goes beyond GenAI workloads to recommendation engines, databases, and streaming. We're optimizing this fleet across silicon systems and software to maximize performance and efficiency.

    我們已經部署了全球首個大規模 NVIDIA GB300 叢集。我們正在建立一個可互換的平台,該平台不斷進行現代化改造,涵蓋人工智慧生命週期的所有階段,從預訓練到後訓練,再到合成資料生成和推理。而且它的應用範圍不僅限於 GenAI 工作負載,還包括推薦引擎、資料庫和串流媒體。我們正在對整個晶片系統和軟體進行最佳化,以最大限度地提高效能和效率。

  • It's this combination of fungibility and continuous optimization that allows us to deliver the best ROI and TCO for us and our customers. For example, during the quarter, we increased the token throughput for GPT-4.1 and GPT-5, two of the most widely used models by over 30% per GPU.

    正是這種可替代性和持續優化的結合,使我們能夠為我們自己和我們的客戶帶來最佳的投資回報率和總擁有成本。例如,在本季度,我們將 GPT-4.1 和 GPT-5 這兩個最廣泛使用的模型的令牌吞吐量提高了 30% 以上(每個 GPU)。

  • We also have the most comprehensive digital sovereignty platform. Azure customers in 33 countries are now developing their own cloud and AI capabilities within their borders to meet local data residency requirements.

    我們也擁有最全面的數位主權平台。目前,33 個國家的 Azure 客戶正在本國境內開發自己的雲端和 AI 能力,以滿足本地資料駐留要求。

  • In Germany, for example, OpenAI and SAP will rely on Azure to deliver new AI solutions to the public sector. On top of this infrastructure, we are building Azure AI Foundry to help customers build their own AI apps and agents. We have 80,000 customers, including 80% of the Fortune 500. We offer developers and enterprise access to over 11,000 models more than any other vendor, including as of this quarter, OpenAI's GPT-5 as well as xAI’s Grok 4.

    例如,在德國,OpenAI 和 SAP 將依賴 Azure 為公共部門提供新的 AI 解決方案。在此基礎架構之上,我們正​​在建立 Azure AI Foundry,以協助客戶建立自己的 AI 應用程式和代理程式。我們擁有 8 萬名客戶,其中包括 80% 的財富 500 強企業。我們為開發者和企業提供超過 11,000 個模型,比任何其他供應商都多,其中包括本季度新增的 OpenAI 的 GPT-5 以及 xAI 的 Grok 4。

  • For example, Ralph Lauren used Foundry to build conversational shopping experience in its app, enabling customers to describe what they're looking for and get personalized recommendations. And OpenEvidence used Foundry to create its AI-powered clinical assistant, which surfaces relevant medical information to physicians and help streamline charting.

    例如,拉夫勞倫 (Ralph Lauren) 使用 Foundry 在其應用程式中建立了對話式購物體驗,使客戶能夠描述他們正在尋找什麼並獲得個人化推薦。OpenEvidence 使用 Foundry 創建了其人工智慧驅動的臨床助手,該助手可以向醫生提供相關的醫療信息,並幫助簡化圖表繪製流程。

  • When it comes to our first-party models, we are excited by the performance of our new MAI models for text, voice, and image generation, which debuted among the top in the industry leader boards. And we continue to make great progress with our five family of SLMs, which now have been downloaded over 60 million times, up 3x year over year.

    就我們的第一方模型而言,我們對用於文字、語音和圖像生成的新 MAI 模型的性能感到非常興奮,這些模型一推出便躋身行業排行榜前列。我們的五款 SLM 系列產品持續取得巨大進展,目前下載量已超過 6,000 萬次,較去年同期成長 3 倍。

  • Beyond models in Foundry, we are providing everything developers need to design, customize, and manage AI applications and agents at scale. Our new Microsoft Agent Framework helps developers orchestrate multi-agent systems with compliance, observability, and deep integration out of the box.

    除了 Foundry 中的模型之外,我們還提供開發人員大規模設計、客製化和管理 AI 應用程式和代理程式所需的一切。我們全新的 Microsoft Agent Framework 可協助開發人員開箱即用地編排具有合規性、可觀測性和深度整合的多代理系統。

  • For example, KPMG used the framework to modernize the audit process, connecting agents to internal data with enterprise-grade governance and observability. These kinds of real production scale AI deployments are driving Azure's overall growth. And once again, this quarter, Azure took share.

    例如,畢馬威利用該框架實現了審計流程的現代化,將代理人與內部數據連接起來,實現了企業級治理和可觀測性。這種真正意義上的生產規模人工智慧部署正在推動 Azure 的整體成長。本季度,Azure再次佔據市場份額。

  • Now let's turn to applications and agents we ourselves are building on this platform. We now have 900 million monthly active users of our AI features across our products. And our first-party family of Copilots now has surpassed 150 million monthly active users across the information work, coding, security, science, health, and consumer.

    現在讓我們來看看我們自己在這個平台上建立的應用程式和代理程式。目前,在我們旗下所有產品中,人工智慧功能的月活躍用戶已達 9 億。我們第一方 Copilot 系列產品目前在資訊工作、編碼、安全、科學、健康和消費等領域的每月活躍用戶已超過 1.5 億。

  • When it comes to information work, we continue to innovate with Microsoft 365 Copilot. Copilot is becoming the UI for the agentic AI experience. We have integrated chat and agentic workflows into everyday tools like Outlook, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Teams. Just nine months since release, tens of millions of users across Microsoft 365 customer base are already using chat. Adoption is accelerating rapidly, growing 50% quarter over quarter, and we continue to see usage intensity increase.

    在資訊工作方面,我們不斷利用 Microsoft 365 Copilot 進行創新。Copilot 正成為智慧 AI 體驗的使用者介面。我們已將聊天和代理程式工作流程整合到 Outlook、Word、Excel、PowerPoint 和 Teams 等日常工具中。自發布以來僅九個月,微軟 365 客戶群中已有數千萬用戶開始使用聊天功能。採用率正在迅速提高,每季成長 50%,我們持續看到使用強度增加。

  • This quarter, we also introduced agent mode, which turns single prompts into export quality Word documents, Excel spreadsheets, PowerPoint presentation and then iterate to deliver the final product much like agent mode in coding tools today. We're thrilled by the early response, including third-party benchmarks that rank it best-in-class.

    本季度,我們還推出了代理模式,該模式可以將單一提示轉換為可匯出的 Word 文件、Excel 電子表格、PowerPoint 演示文稿,然後迭代以交付最終產品,這與當今編碼工具中的代理模式非常相似。我們對目前的市場反應感到非常興奮,包括第三方基準測試將其評為同類最佳。

  • Beyond individual productivity, Copilot is multiplayer, (technical difficulty) agents like Facilitator and Project Manager, prep meeting agendas, take notes, capture decision, kick off group tasks.

    除了個人生產力之外,Copilot 還是多人遊戲(技術難度較高),代理商(如協調員和專案經理)可以準備會議議程、做筆記、記錄決策、啟動小組任務。

  • We are seeing a growing Copilot agent ecosystem with top ISVs like Adobe, Asana, Jira, LexisNexis, SAP, ServiceNow, Snowflake and Workday, all building their own agents that connect to Copilot. And customers are also building agents for their mission-critical business processes and workflows using tools like Copilot Studio and integrating them into Copilot.

    我們看到 Copilot 代理生態系統正在不斷壯大,Adobe、Asana、Jira、LexisNexis、SAP、ServiceNow、Snowflake 和 Workday 等頂級獨立軟體開發商都在建立自己的代理,這些代理可以連接到 Copilot。客戶們也正在使用 Copilot Studio 等工具為其關鍵業務流程和工作流程建立代理,並將其整合到 Copilot 中。

  • The overall number of agent users doubled quarter over quarter. And just yesterday, we announced App Builder, a new Copilot agent that lets anyone create and deploy task-specific apps and agents in minutes grounded in Microsoft 365 context.

    代理用戶總數環比翻了一番。就在昨天,我們發布了 App Builder,這是一個新的 Copilot 代理,它可以讓任何人基於 Microsoft 365 環境在幾分鐘內創建和部署特定任務的應用程式和代理程式。

  • All this innovation is driving our momentum. Customers continue to adopt Microsoft 365 Copilot at a faster rate than any other new Microsoft 365 suite, all up more than 90% of the Fortune 500 now use Microsoft 365 Copilot, Accenture, Bristol-Myers Squibb, EY Global and the UK's Tax and Payments and Customs Authority all purchased over 15,000 seats this quarter. Lloyds Banking Group has deployed 30,000 seats, saving each employee an average of 46 minutes daily.

    所有這些創新都在推動我們前進的發展勢頭。客戶採用 Microsoft 365 Copilot 的速度持續快於任何其他新的 Microsoft 365 套件,超過 90% 的財富 500 強企業現在都在使用 Microsoft 365 Copilot,埃森哲、百時美施貴寶、安永全球和英國稅務及支付和海關總署在本季度都購買了超過 15,000 個席位。勞埃德銀行集團已部署了 30,000 個座位,平均每天為每位員工節省 46 分鐘。

  • And a large majority of our enterprise customers continue to come back to purchase more seats. Our partner, PwC, alone added 155,000 seats this quarter and now has over 200,000 deployed across its global operations. In just six months, PwC employees interacted with Microsoft 365 Copilot over 30 million times, and they credit this identic transformation with saving millions of hours in employee productivity.

    我們的大多數企業客戶都會繼續回來購買更多席位。我們的合作夥伴普華永道本季新增了 155,000 個席位,目前已在全球業務中部署了超過 200,000 個席位。短短六個月內,普華永道員工與 Microsoft 365 Copilot 的互動次數超過 3,000 萬次,他們認為正是這種轉變為員工節省了數百萬小時的生產力。

  • When it comes to coding, GitHub Copilot is the most popular AI pair programmer now with over 26 million users. For example, tens of thousands of developers at AMD use GitHub Copilot, accepting hundreds of thousands of lines of code suggestions each month and crediting it with saving months of development time. All up, GitHub is now home to over 180 million developers, and the platform is growing at the fastest rate in its history, adding a developer every second. 80% of new developers on GitHub start with Copilot within the first week.

    說到編程,GitHub Copilot 是目前最受歡迎的 AI 配對編程工具,擁有超過 2,600 萬用戶。例如,AMD 的數萬名開發人員使用 GitHub Copilot,每月接受數十萬行程式碼建議,並認為它節省了數月的開發時間。目前,GitHub 已擁有超過 1.8 億開發者,並且正以史上最快的速度成長,平均每秒新增一名開發者。 GitHub 上 80% 的新開發者在第一週就開始使用 Copilot。

  • Overall, the rise of AI coding agents is driving record usage with over 500 million pull requests merged over the past year. And just yesterday, at GitHub Universe, we introduced Agent HQ. GitHub Copilot and Agent HQ is the organizing layer for all coding agent, extending GitHub primitives like PRs, issues, actions to coding agents from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Cognition, xAI as well as OSS and in-house models. GitHub now provides a single mission control to launch, manage, and review these agents, each operating from its own branch with built-in controls, observability, and governance.

    總體而言,AI 編碼代理的興起推動了使用量的創紀錄增長,過去一年中合併的拉取請求超過 5 億次。就在昨天,我們在 GitHub Universe 上推出了 Agent HQ。GitHub Copilot 和 Agent HQ 是所有編碼代理的組織層,它將 GitHub 的基本功能(如 PR、問題、操作)擴展到來自 OpenAI、Anthropic、Google、Cognition、xAI 以及開源軟體和內部模型的編碼代理程式。GitHub 現在提供了一個統一的任務控制中心,用於啟動、管理和審查這些代理,每個代理都在自己的分支上運行,並具有內建的控制、可觀察性和治理功能。

  • We are building a similar system in security with over three dozen agents in Copilot integrated across Entra, Defender, Purview, and Intune. For example, with our phishing triage agent in Defender, studies show that analysts can be up to 6.5 times more efficient in detecting malicious mails.

    我們正在建立一個類似的安全系統,Copilot 中整合了 30 多個代理,涵蓋 Entra、Defender、Purview 和 Intune。例如,研究表明,借助 Defender 中的網路釣魚分類代理,分析人員在偵測惡意郵件方面的效率可以提高 6.5 倍。

  • In health, Dragon Copilot helps providers automate critical workflows. This quarter alone, we helped document over 17 million patient encounters, up nearly 5x year over year. More than 650 healthcare organizations have purchased our ambient listening tech to date, including University of Michigan Health where over 1,000 physicians are actively using it.

    在醫療領域,Dragon Copilot 可以幫助醫療服務提供者實現關鍵工作流程的自動化。光是本季度,我們就協助記錄了超過 1,700 萬次患者就診情況,比去年同期成長了近 5 倍。迄今為止,已有超過 650 家醫療機構購買了我們的環境監聽技術,其中包括密西根大學健康中心,該中心有超過 1000 名醫生正在積極使用該技術。

  • Finally, when it comes to AI consumer experiences, we are excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just two weeks ago, we introduced new ways to speak naturally to your computer, including a Copilot wake word. With Vision, Copilot sees what you see on your screen and you can have a real-time conversation about it. And with Actions, it takes real action on your behalf, interacting with both web and desktop apps.

    最後,就 AI 消費者體驗而言,我們對 Copilot 取得的所有進展感到興奮,首先是從 Windows 開始。現在,每一台 Windows 11 電腦都是一台人工智慧電腦。就在兩週前,我們推出了與電腦進行自然對話的新方式,包括 Copilot 喚醒詞。透過 Vision,Copilot 可以看到您在螢幕上看到的內容,您可以就此進行即時對話。借助 Actions,它可以代表您執行實際操作,與 Web 和桌面應用程式互動。

  • In Edge, we are introducing first-of-its-kind AI features to automate multistep workflows within the browser and help you pick up right where you left off. Edge now has taken share for 18 consecutive quarters. In Bing, our overview pages now include embedded conversational capabilities, we took share again in search. And daily users of our Copilot consumer app increased nearly 50% quarter over quarter. Among many updates we made last week is Groups, which turns Copilot for the first time into a shared experience.

    在 Edge 瀏覽器中,我們引入了首創的 AI 功能,可自動執行瀏覽器內的多步驟工作流程,並協助您從上次中斷的地方繼續操作。Edge 已經連續 18 個季度佔據市場份額領先地位。在 Bing 中,我們的概覽頁面現在包含了嵌入式對話功能,我們在搜尋領域再次奪回了市場份額。我們的 Copilot 消費者應用程式的每日活躍用戶數量較上季成長近 50%。上週我們進行了多項更新,其中包括「群組」功能,該功能首次將 Copilot 變成了一種共享體驗。

  • We also are creating a great consumer subscription offer with Microsoft 365 premium. It brings together our Office applications and advanced Copilot features with high usage limits, giving individuals the flexibility to bring their own AI to work in a secure way.

    我們也與 Microsoft 365 高階版合作,為消費者打造極具吸引力的訂閱方案。它將我們的 Office 應用程式和高級 Copilot 功能結合起來,並具有較高的使用限制,使個人能夠以安全的方式靈活地將自己的 AI 帶到工作中。

  • Finally, in gaming, Copilot provides a voice-first immersive experience across PC, mobile, and our new Xbox Ally. Beyond our family of Copilots and AI platform, we are seeing strong momentum across the portfolio. Cloud migrations are accelerating. In data and analytics, Fabric revenue grew 60%, which is faster than any other data and analytics platform in the industry. We now have 28,000 paid Fabric customers. In databases, SQL DB hyperscale revenue was up nearly 75%, 50% in Cosmos DB.

    最後,在遊戲方面,Copilot 可在 PC、行動裝置和我們新的 Xbox Ally 上提供以語音為先的沉浸式體驗。除了我們的副駕駛和人工智慧平台系列產品外,我們看到整個產品組合呈現出強勁的發展勢頭。雲端遷移正在加速進行。在數據和分析領域,Fabric 的收入成長了 60%,比業界任何其他數據和分析平台都快。我們現在有 28,000 名 Fabric 付費客戶。在資料庫領域,SQL DB 超大規模收入成長了近 75%,Cosmos DB 成長了 50%。

  • In Business Applications, Dynamics 365 gained share. In security, our end-to-end stack is now informed by 100 trillion daily signals. 1 billion monthly active users of Entra, 16 billion Copilot interactions audited by Purview, up 72% quarter over quarter. 40,000 Sentinel customers, and we took share across all categories we serve in security. In LinkedIn, nearly 1.3 billion members.

    在商業應用領域,Dynamics 365 的市佔率有所成長。在安全性方面,我們的端到端安全架構現在每天都會接收到 100 兆個訊號。 Entra 的月活躍用戶達到 10 億,Purview 審計的 Copilot 互動次數達到 160 億次,較上季成長 72%。我們擁有 40,000 名 Sentinel 客戶,並且在我們服務的所有安全類別中都佔據了市場份額。LinkedIn擁有近13億會員。

  • And finally, in gaming, we expanded our reach across every endpoint focused on our high-margin content and services. We launched critically acclaimed games like Keeper, Ninja Gaiden 4, and Outer Worlds 2, reaching 155 million monthly active users of Minecraft, an all-time high, and set new record for overall content and services revenue for the quarter. We also saw a great response to Xbox Ally launch two weeks ago and set new records for players on PC.

    最後,在遊戲領域,我們擴大了業務範圍,涵蓋了所有終端,並專注於推廣我們高利潤的內容和服務。我們推出了廣受好評的遊戲,如《守護者》、《忍者龍劍傳 4》和《天外世界 2》,《我的世界》的月活躍用戶達到 1.55 億,創歷史新高,並創下了該季度整體內容和服務收入的新紀錄。兩週前 Xbox Ally 的發布也獲得了熱烈反響,並在 PC 玩家數量上創下了新紀錄。

  • In closing, our planet-scale cloud and AI factory together with Copilots across high-value domains is driving broad diffusion and real-world impact. And we continue to increase our investments in AI across both capital and talent to meet the massive opportunity ahead.

    最後,我們全球規模的雲端和人工智慧工廠,以及在高價值領域的 Copilots,正在推動廣泛傳播和現實世界的影響力。我們將繼續加大對人工智慧領域的投資,包括資金和人才,以掌握未來巨大的機會。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Amy to walk through our financial results and outlook, and I look forward to rejoining for your questions.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給艾米,讓她為大家介紹我們的財務表現和展望,期待稍後再回來回答大家的問題。

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. First, as you heard from Satya, we were pleased to announce the next phase of our partnership with OpenAI yesterday. They continue to choose Microsoft to power their workloads. And together, we remain committed to driving innovation that meets real-world needs. Our Q1 results were not impacted by the deal signed this week.

    謝謝你,薩蒂亞,大家下午好。首先,正如你從薩蒂亞那裡聽到的,我們很高興地宣布昨天與 OpenAI 的合作進入下一階段。他們繼續選擇微軟的產品來支援他們的工作負載。我們將持續攜手合作,致力於推動滿足現實世界需求的創新。本週簽署的交易並未影響我們第一季的業績。

  • Now on to the quarter, we delivered a strong start to our fiscal year, exceeding expectations across revenue, operating income, and earnings per share. We also saw continued share gains across many of our businesses, demonstrating our leadership position in key markets.

    現在來看本季度,我們為本財年取得了強勁的開局,在營收、營業收入和每股盈餘方面都超出了預期。我們也看到,我們許多業務的市場份額持續成長,這證明了我們在關鍵市場的領先地位。

  • This quarter, revenue was $77.7 billion, up 18% and 17% in constant currency. Gross margin dollars increased 18% and 16% in constant currency, while operating income increased 24% and 22% in constant currency. And earnings per share was $4.13, an increase of 23% and 21% in constant currency when adjusted for the impact of our investments in OpenAI. FX impact was roughly in line with guidance.

    本季營收為 777 億美元,年增 18%,以固定匯率計算成長 17%。以固定匯率計算,毛利成長了 18% 和 16%;以固定匯率計算,營業收入成長了 24% 和 22%。每股收益為 4.13 美元,以固定匯率計算增長了 23%,若計入我們對 OpenAI 的投資的影響,則增長了 21%。匯率影響與預期基本一致。

  • Company gross margin percentage was 69%, down slightly year over year, driven by investments in AI, including the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure and the growing usage of our AI product features. This was partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial cloud.

    該公司毛利率為 69%,年比略有下降,主要原因是人工智慧領域的投資,包括擴大人工智慧基礎設施規模的影響以及人工智慧產品功能日益增長的使用。持續的效率提升,尤其是在 Azure 和 M365 商業雲端方面,部分抵消了這種影響。

  • Operating expenses increased 5% and 4% in constant currency, driven by investments in cloud and AI engineering, including compute capacity and AI talent to support product development across the portfolio. Operating margins increased year over year to 49% and were ahead of expectations with stronger-than-anticipated results and high-margin businesses this quarter.

    以固定匯率計算,營運費用增加了 5% 和 4%,這主要得益於對雲端運算和人工智慧工程的投資,包括運算能力和人工智慧人才,以支援整個產品組合的產品開發。營業利潤率年增至 49%,超出預期,本季業績表現強於預期,且高利潤業務表現突出。

  • When adjusted for the impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense was $401 million as interest income more than offset interest expense, which includes the interest of payments related to data center finance leases.

    扣除我們在 OpenAI 的投資影響後,其他收入和支出為 4.01 億美元,利息收入超過利息支出,其中包括與資料中心融資租賃相關的付款利息。

  • Capital expenditures were $34.9 billion, driven by growing demand for our cloud and AI offerings. This quarter, roughly half of our spend was on short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, to support increasing Azure platform demand, growing first-party apps at AI solutions, accelerating R&D by our product teams as well as continued replacement for end-of-life server and networking equipment.

    資本支出達 349 億美元,主要得益於市場對我們雲端服務和人工智慧產品日益增長的需求。本季度,我們大約一半的支出用於短期資產,主要是 GPU 和 CPU,以支援不斷增長的 Azure 平台需求、AI 解決方案中不斷增長的第一方應用程式、加速產品團隊的研發以及持續更換已停產的伺服器和網路設備。

  • The remaining spend was for long-lived assets that will support monetization for the next 15 years and beyond, including $11.1 billion of finance leases that are primarily for large data center sites. And cash paid for PP&E was $19.4 billion. As a reminder, the difference between total CapEx and cash paid for PP&E is primarily due to finance leases as well as the normal timing of goods received but not yet paid.

    剩餘的支出用於支持未來 15 年及以後貨幣化的長期資產,其中包括 111 億美元的融資租賃,主要用於大型資料中心站點。為固定資產支付的現金為 194 億美元。需要提醒的是,資本支出總額與實物購置現金之間的差額主要是由於融資租賃以及貨物已收到但尚未付款的正常時間造成的。

  • Cash flow from operations was $45.1 billion, up 32%, driven by strong cloud billings and collections, partially offset by higher supplier payments. And free cash flow increased 33% to $25.7 billion with minimal impact from a sequential increase in CapEx, given the higher mix of finance leases.

    經營活動產生的現金流為 451 億美元,成長 32%,主要得益於強勁的雲端計費和收款,但部分被更高的供應商付款所抵銷。由於融資租賃佔比提高,資本支出環比增加的影響很小,自由現金流增加了 33%,達到 257 億美元。

  • And finally, we returned $10.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

    最後,我們透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還了 107 億美元。

  • Now to our commercial results. Commercial bookings increased 112% and 111% in constant currency and were significantly ahead of expectations, driven by Azure commitments from OpenAI as well as continued growth in the number of $100 million-plus contracts for both Azure and M365. These results do not include any impact from the incremental $250 billion Azure commitments from OpenAI announced yesterday.

    現在來看我們的商業成果。以固定匯率計算,商業預訂量增加了 112% 和 111%,遠超預期,這主要得益於 OpenAI 對 Azure 的承諾,以及 Azure 和 M365 超過 1 億美元的合約數量的持續增長。這些結果不包括昨天 OpenAI 宣布的額外 2500 億美元 Azure 投資承諾所帶來的任何影響。

  • Commercial remaining performance obligation increased to $392 billion and was up 51% year over year. The balance has nearly doubled over the past two years. And even with this growth, our weighted average duration has been relatively stable at approximately two years.

    商業剩餘履約義務增加至 3,920 億美元,年增 51%。過去兩年,該餘額幾乎翻了一番。即使成長如此,我們的加權平均持續時間也相對穩定在兩年左右。

  • Microsoft Cloud revenue was $49.1 billion, ahead of expectations and grew 26% and 25% in constant currency. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage was slightly better than expected at 68% and down year over year due to the investments in AI that were partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains as noted earlier.

    微軟雲端業務營收達 491 億美元,超出預期,以固定匯率運算成長 26% 和 25%。微軟雲端業務毛利率為 68%,略優於預期,但年減,原因是人工智慧領域的投資被先前提到的持續效率提升部分抵銷。

  • Now to segment results. Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $33 billion and grew 17% and 14% in constant currency. M365 Commercial cloud revenue increased 17% and 15% in constant currency with 1 point of benefit from in-period revenue recognition. Year-over-year growth was driven by both ARPU and seats with ARPU growth again led by E5 and M365 Copilot. Paid M365 Commercial seats grew 6% year over year with installed base expansion across all customer segments though primarily in our small and medium businesses and frontline worker offerings.

    現在將結果細分。來自生產力和業務流程的收入為 330 億美元,以固定匯率計算成長了 17% 和 14%。M365 商業雲端收入以固定匯率計算成長了 17% 和 15%,其中 1 個百分點來自當期收入確認。年比增幅主要由每位用戶平均收入 (ARPU) 和座位數推動,其中 E5 和 M365 Copilot 再次引領了 ARPU 的成長。付費版 M365 商業版席位年增 6%,所有客戶群的安裝基礎均有所擴大,但主要集中在我們的中小企業和第一線員工產品中。

  • M365 Commercial products revenue increased 17% and 14% in constant currency, ahead of expectations due to higher-than-expected Office 2024 transactional purchasing. M365 Consumer cloud revenue increased 26% and 25% in constant currency, again driven by ARPU growth. M365 consumer subscriptions grew 7% to over 90 million.

    由於 Office 2024 的交易採購量高於預期,M365 商業產品收入以固定匯率計算成長了 17% 和 14%,超出預期。M365 消費者雲端收入以固定匯率計算成長了 26% 和 25%,再次受到 ARPU 成長的推動。M365 消費者訂閱用戶成長 7%,超過 9,000 萬。

  • LinkedIn revenue increased 10% and 9% in constant currency driven by Marketing Solutions. The Talent Solutions business was impacted by continued weakness in the hiring market. Dynamics 365 revenue increased 18% and 16% in constant currency with continued growth across all workloads.

    LinkedIn 營收以固定匯率計算成長了 10% 和 9%,這主要得益於行銷解決方案的推動。人才解決方案業務受到招聘市場持續疲軟的影響。Dynamics 365 的營收以固定匯率計算成長了 18% 和 16%,所有工作負載均持續成長。

  • Segment gross margin dollars increased 19% and 16% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased driven by efficiency gains in M365 Commercial cloud that were partially offset by investments in AI including the impact of growing usage in M365 Copilot chat.

    以固定匯率計算,分部毛利成長了 19% 和 16%,毛利率成長主要得益於 M365 商業雲的效率提升,但部分被人工智慧投資所抵消,其中包括 M365 Copilot 聊天使用量成長的影響。

  • Operating expenses increased 6% and 5% in constant currency, and operating income increased 24% and 20% in constant currency. Operating margins increased 3 points year over year to 62%, driven by the higher gross margin noted earlier as well as improved operating leverage.

    以固定匯率計算,營業費用增加了 6% 和 5%;以固定匯率計算,營業收入成長了 24% 和 20%。營業利潤率年增 3 個百分點至 62%,主要得益於前面提到的毛利率提高以及經營槓桿的改善。

  • Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $30.9 billion and grew 28% and 27% in constant currency. In Azure and other cloud services, where we continue to see accelerating demand, revenue grew 40% and 39% in constant currency. Results were ahead of expectations, driven by better-than-expected growth in our core infrastructure business, primarily from our largest customers.

    接下來是智慧雲部分。營收達 309 億美元,以固定匯率計算成長 28% 和 27%。在 Azure 和其他雲端服務領域,我們持續看到需求加速成長,以固定匯率計算,營收分別成長了 40% 和 39%。業績超出預期,主要得益於我們核心基礎設施業務超出預期的成長,尤其是來自我們最大客戶的成長。

  • Azure AI services revenue was generally in line with expectations, and this quarter, demand again exceeded supply across workloads, even as we brought more capacity online.

    Azure AI 服務收入總體上符合預期,本季度,即使我們增加了更多容量,各工作負載的需求仍然超過了供應。

  • In our on-premise server business, revenue increased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency. Results were ahead of expectations, driven by transactional purchasing of Windows Server 2025. Segment gross margin dollars increased 20% and 19% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage decreased year over year, driven by investments in AI that were partially offset by efficiency gains in Azure.

    在我們的本地伺服器業務中,收入成長了 1%,以固定匯率計算基本上保持不變。業績超出預期,主要得益於 Windows Server 2025 的交易性採購。以固定匯率計算,分部毛利美元成長了 20% 和 19%,但毛利率年減,主要原因是人工智慧的投資,而 Azure 的效率提升部分抵銷了這些投資。

  • Operating expenses increased 4% and operating income grew 27%. Operating margins were 43%, down only slightly year over year as increased investments in AI were mostly offset by improved operating leverage.

    營業費用成長了 4%,營業收入成長了 27%。營業利潤率為 43%,年比僅略有下降,原因是人工智慧投資的增加基本上被營運槓桿的改善所抵消。

  • Now to More Personal Computing. Revenue was $13.8 billion and grew 4%. Windows OEM and devices revenue increased 6% year over year, significantly ahead of expectations, driven by strong demand ahead of Windows 10 end of support as well as a benefit from inventory levels that remain elevated.

    現在進入個人電腦領域。營收達138億美元,成長4%。Windows OEM 和裝置營收年增 6%,遠超預期,這主要得益於 Windows 10 停止支援前強勁的需求,以及庫存水準仍然較高帶來的好處。

  • Search and news advertising revenue ex-TAC increased 16% and 15% in constant currency, driven by growth in volume as well as the continued benefit from third-party partnerships that was better than expected.

    扣除TAC後,搜尋和新聞廣告收入分別以固定匯率成長了16%和15%,主要得益於銷售成長以及第三方合作關係帶來的持續收益,且該收益優於預期。

  • And in gaming, revenue decreased 2% and 3% in constant currency against a strong prior year comparable. Xbox content and services revenue increased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency, driven by better-than-expected performance from third-party content.

    遊戲業務方面,以固定匯率計算,營收較上年同期大幅下降 2% 至 3%。Xbox 內容和服務收入成長了 1%,以固定匯率計算基本上保持不變,這主要得益於第三方內容表現優於預期。

  • Segment gross margin dollars increased 11% and 10% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased year over year driven by sales mix shift to higher-margin businesses. Operating expenses increased 4% and 3% in constant currency, and operating income increased 18% and 16% in constant currency. Operating margins increased 3 points year over year to 30% driven by the higher gross margin noted earlier.

    以固定匯率計算,分部毛利成長了 11% 和 10%,毛利率年增,這主要得益於銷售組合向高利潤業務的轉變。以固定匯率計算,營業費用增加了 4% 和 3%;以固定匯率計算,營業收入成長了 18% 和 16%。受前文所述毛利率提高的推動,營業利潤率年增 3 個百分點至 30%。

  • Now moving to our Q2 outlook, which unless specifically noted otherwise, is on a US dollar basis. Based on current rates, we expect FX to increase total revenue growth by 2 points. Within the segments, we expect FX to increase revenue growth by 2 points in Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud and 1 point in More Personal Computing. We expect FX to increase COGS and operating expense growth by 1 point.

    現在來看看我們第二季的展望,除非另有特別說明,否則均以美元計價。根據目前的匯率,我們預計外匯將使總收入成長提高 2 個百分點。在各個細分領域中,我們預期 FX 在生產力和業務流程以及智慧雲端領域的營收成長將提高 2 個百分點,在更多個人運算領域的營收成長將提高 1 個百分點。我們預期外匯波動將使銷售成本和營運費用成長增加 1 個百分點。

  • Starting with the total company, we expect revenue of USD79.5 billion to USD80.6 billion or growth of 14% to 16%. We expect COGS of USD26.35 billion to USD26.55 billion or growth of 21% to 22%. And operating expense of USD17.3 billion to USD17.4 billion, growth of 7% to 8%. Operating margins should be relatively flat year over year and down sequentially, aligned with historic seasonality.

    從整個公司來看,我們預計營收為 795 億美元至 806 億美元,成長 14% 至 16%。我們預計銷售成本為 263.5 億美元至 265.5 億美元,成長 21% 至 22%。營運支出為 173 億美元至 174 億美元,成長 7% 至 8%。營業利潤率同比應基本持平,環比下降,與歷史季節性規律相符。

  • Now other income and expense. The combination of OpenAI's conversion to a public benefit corp and the ongoing nature of our partnership will result in increased volatility. Therefore, going forward, we'll provide our outlook, excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI. On that basis, in Q2, other income and expense is estimated to be roughly $100 million as interest income will more than offset interest expense. And we expect our Q2 effective tax rate to be approximately 19%.

    現在還有其他收入和支出。OpenAI 轉型為公益公司以及我們持續的合作關係,將導致市場波動性增加。因此,展望未來,我們將排除對 OpenAI 的投資所帶來的任何影響。基於此,預計第二季其他收入和支出約為 1 億美元,因為利息收入將超過利息支出。我們預計第二季實際稅率約為 19%。

  • Next, capital expenditures. With accelerating demand and a growing RPO balance, we're increasing our spend on GPUs and CPUs. Therefore, total spend will increase sequentially, and we now expect the FY26 growth rate to be higher than FY25. As a reminder, there can be quarterly spend variability from cloud infrastructure buildouts and the timing of delivery of finance leases.

    接下來是資本支出。隨著需求加速成長和 RPO 餘額不斷增加,我們正在增加對 GPU 和 CPU 的支出。因此,總支出將逐年增加,我們現在預計 2026 財年的成長率將高於 2025 財年。需要提醒的是,由於雲端基礎設施建設和融資租賃的交付時間,季度支出可能會有所波動。

  • Next, our commercial business. In commercial bookings, we expect healthy growth in the core business on a low expiry base when adjusted for the OpenAI contracts in the prior year. And we expect commercial bookings will be positively impacted by the significant OpenAI commitments announced yesterday. As a reminder, larger long-term Azure contracts, which are more unpredictable in their timing, drive increased quarterly volatility in our bookings growth rate.

    接下來,我們來談談商業業務。在商業預訂方面,我們預計核心業務在較低的到期基數下將實現健康成長,即使扣除上一年 OpenAI 的合約後也是如此。我們預計,昨天 OpenAI 宣布的重大承諾將對商業預訂產生積極影響。需要提醒的是,金額較大的長期 Azure 合同,由於其生效時間更難預測,導致我們的預訂成長率出現更大的季度波動。

  • Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be roughly 66%, down year over year, driven by the continued investments in AI as well as the mix shift to Azure.

    受人工智慧領域持續投資以及向 Azure 的業務組合轉變的影響,微軟雲端的毛利率預計約為 66%,年減。

  • Now to segment guidance. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue of USD33.3 billion to USD33.6 billion or growth of 13% to 14%. In M365 Commercial cloud, we expect revenue growth to be between 13% and 14% in constant currency, with business trends that remain relatively stable quarter over quarter. ARPU growth will again be driven by E5 and M365 Copilot.

    現在開始細分指導。在生產力和業務流程方面,我們預計營收為 333 億美元至 336 億美元,成長率為 13% 至 14%。在 M365 商業雲端領域,我們預計以固定匯率計算的營收成長將在 13% 到 14% 之間,業務趨勢將保持相對穩定的季度環比成長。ARPU 的成長將再次由 E5 和 M365 Copilot 推動。

  • M365 Commercial products revenue growth should be in the low to mid-single digits. As a reminder, M365 Commercial products includes components that can be variable due to the in-period revenue recognition dynamics.

    M365 商業產品收入成長應在個位數低至中等水準。提醒各位,M365 商業產品包含的組件可能會因期間收入確認動態而改變。

  • M365 Consumer cloud revenue growth should be in the mid-20s driven by growth in ARPU. For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth of approximately 10%. And in Dynamics 365, we expect revenue growth to be in the mid- to high teens with continued growth across all workloads.

    受 ARPU 成長的推動,M365 消費者雲端收入成長應在 20% 左右。我們預計 LinkedIn 的營收成長約為 10%。在 Dynamics 365 方面,我們預計營收成長將達到 15% 到 10% 的水平,所有工作負載都將持續成長。

  • For Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue of USD32.25 billion to USD32.55 billion or growth of 26% to 27%. In Azure, we expect Q2 revenue growth of approximately 37% in constant currency as demand remains significantly ahead of the capacity we have available.

    對於智慧雲,我們預計營收為 322.5 億美元至 325.5 億美元,成長 26% 至 27%。在 Azure 方面,我們預計第二季營收以固定匯率計算將成長約 37%,因為需求仍遠超過我們現有的產能。

  • And while we're accelerating the amount of capacity we're bringing online, we will continue to balance Azure revenue growth with the growing needs across our first-party apps and AI solutions, our own R&D efforts, and the end-of-life server replacements. Therefore, we now expect to be capacity constrained through at least the end of our fiscal year.

    雖然我們正在加快上線容量的速度,但我們將繼續平衡 Azure 收入成長與我們第一方應用程式和 AI 解決方案、我們自己的研發工作以及報廢伺服器更換的不斷增長的需求。因此,我們預計至少在本財年結束前,產能都將受到限制。

  • As a reminder, there can be quarterly variability in the year-on-year growth rates depending on the timing of capacity delivery and when it comes online as well as from in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts.

    需要提醒的是,由於產能交付時間和上線時間以及根據合約組合而進行的當期收入確認等因素,同比增速可能會出現季度性波動。

  • In our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline in the low to mid-single digits with ongoing customer shift to cloud offerings.

    在我們的本地伺服器業務中,隨著客戶不斷轉向雲端服務,我們預期收入將出現個位數低至中等的下降。

  • In More Personal Computing. We expect revenue to be in the USD13.95 billion to USD14.45 billion. Windows OEM and devices revenue should decline in the mid-single digits. We expect continued momentum from Windows 10 end of support, although growth rates will be impacted by elevated inventory levels at the end of Q1 that we expect to come down through the quarter. Therefore, Windows OEM revenue should decline low to mid-single digits.

    在更多個人計算領域。我們預計營收將在 139.5 億美元至 144.5 億美元之間。Windows OEM 和裝置收入預計將出現中等個位數的下降。我們預計 Windows 10 停止支援將繼續帶來成長勢頭,儘管第一季末庫存水準較高會影響成長率,但我們預計庫存水準將在本季下降。因此,Windows OEM 收入應該會下降個位數百分比。

  • The range of potential outcomes remains wider than normal. Devices revenue should decline year over year. Search and News advertising ex-TAC revenue growth should be in the low double digits, down sequentially as growth rates normalize following the benefit from third-party partnerships noted earlier. Growth will continue to be driven by volume and revenue per search across Edge and Bing.

    潛在結果的範圍仍然比正常情況要廣。設備收入預計逐年下降。剔除 TAC 後的搜尋和新聞廣告收入成長應為兩位數低段,隨著先前提到的第三方合作帶來的收益,成長率將逐步恢復正常,季減。Edge 和 Bing 的搜尋量和每次搜尋的收入將繼續推動成長。

  • And in Xbox content and services, we expect revenue to decline in the low to mid-single digits against the prior year comparable that benefited from strong first priority performance, partially offset by growth in subscriptions. And hardware revenue should decline year over year.

    在 Xbox 內容和服務方面,我們預計收入將比上年同期下降個位數百分比,去年同期受益於強勁的第一優先事項表現,但部分被訂閱收入的成長所抵消。硬體收入預計會逐年下降。

  • And in closing, demand signals across bookings, RPO, and product usage are accelerating faster than we expected. We're investing in infrastructure, AI talent, and product innovation to capture that momentum and expand our leadership position. And we remain focused on delivering real value to our customers that results in durable revenue growth for the long term.

    最後,預訂量、RPO 和產品使用方面的需求訊號正在加速成長,速度比我們預期的還要快。我們正在投資基礎設施、人工智慧人才和產品創新,以抓住這一發展勢頭,擴大我們的領先地位。我們將繼續專注於為客戶創造真正的價值,從而實現長期的可持續收入成長。

  • With that, let's go to Q&A, Jonathan.

    那麼,接下來進入問答環節,喬納森。

  • Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Amy. We'll now move over to Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝你,艾米。接下來進入問答環節。(操作說明)

  • Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?

    操作員,請您再重複一次您的指示好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Keith Weiss, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作說明)基斯‧韋斯,摩根士丹利。

  • Keith Weiss - Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Analyst

  • Congratulations on another outstanding quarter. And if I'm looking at Microsoft, this is two quarters in a row, we're really seeing results that are well ahead of anybody's expectations when we were thinking about this company a year ago or five years ago, 111% in commercial bookings growth was not on anybody's bingo card, if you will, yet the stock is underperforming in the broader market.

    恭喜你們又一個季度取得了優異的成績。以微軟為例,這已經是連續兩個季度了,我們看到的業績遠遠超出了任何人的預期。一年前或五年前,當我們談到這家公司時,商業預訂量增加111%是任何人都沒有預料到的,然而,該股在大盤中的表現卻遜於大盤。

  • And the question I have is kind of getting at the zeitgeist that I think is weighing on the stock. And is something about to change? And I think AGI is kind of a nomenclature or a shorthand for that. And it's something that still included in your guys' OpenAI agreement.

    而我的問題是,我想了解目前影響股價的時代精神。是否即將改變?我認為AGI(通用人工智慧)是對此的一種命名或簡稱。而且這仍然是你們與 OpenAI 簽署的協議中包含的內容。

  • So Satya, when we think about AGI or we think about how application and computing architectures are changing, is there anything that you see on the horizon, whether it's AGI or something else, that could potentially change what appears to be a really strong positioning for Microsoft in the marketplace today where that strength will perhaps weaken on a go-forward basis?

    所以薩蒂亞,當我們思考通用人工智慧(AGI)或思考應用程式和運算架構的變化時,你是否看到未來會出現什麼,無論是通用人工智慧(AGI)還是其他什麼,可能會改變微軟目前在市場上的強大地位,使其優勢在未來逐漸減弱?

  • Is there anything that you're worrying about in that evolution and particularly the evolution of these generative AI models?

    在這發展過程中,尤其是在生成式人工智慧模型的發展過程中,您是否有什麼擔憂?

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Keith, for the question. So here's what I would say, I think there are two parts. We feel very, very good about even this, I'd say, the new agreement that we now have with OpenAI because I think even -- it just creates more certainty to all of the IP relationship we have as it relates to even this definition of AGI.

    謝謝你的提問,基斯。所以我想說的是,我認為這其中有兩個部分。我們對與 OpenAI 達成的這項新協議感到非常非常滿意,因為我認為它為我們所有與 AGI 定義相關的智慧財產權關係帶來了更大的確定性。

  • But beyond that, I think your question touches on something that's pretty important, which is how are these AI systems going to truly be deployed in the real world and make a real difference and make a return for both the customers who are deploying them and then obviously, the providers of these systems?

    但除此之外,我認為你的問題觸及了一個非常重要的問題,那就是這些人工智慧系統將如何在現實世界中真正部署,並產生真正的影響,為部署它們的客戶以及這些系統的提供者帶來回報?

  • And I think the best way to characterize the situation is that even as the intelligence capability increases, let's even say, exponentially like model version over model version, the problem is it's always going to still be jagged, right? I think the term people use is the jagged intelligence, or spiky intelligence, right?

    我認為描述這種情況的最佳方式是,即使智慧能力不斷提高,例如說像模型版本之間呈指數級增長,問題在於它始終會存在缺陷,對吧?我想人們常用的說法是“鋸齒狀智力”或“尖銳型智力”,對吧?

  • So you may even have a capability that's fantastic at a particular task, but it may not uniformly grow. So what is required is in fact, these systems, whether it is GitHub Agent HQ or the M365 Copilot system. Don't think of this as a product. Think of it as a system that in some sense smooths out those jagged edges, and really helps the capability.

    所以,你可能在某項特定任務上擁有非常出色的能力,但這種能力可能不會平衡發展。所以,實際上需要的就是這些系統,無論是 GitHub Agent HQ 還是 M365 Copilot 系統。不要把它當作產品來看待。你可以把它想像成一個可以消除這些尖銳邊緣的系統,它確實有助於提高能力。

  • I mean just to give you a flavor for it, right? So if I am in M365 Copilot, I can generate an Excel spreadsheet. The good news is now an Excel spreadsheet does understand Office JS, has the formulas in it. It feels like, wow, it is a great spreadsheet created by a good model. The more interesting thing is I can go into agent mode in Excel and iterate on that model.

    我的意思是,只是想讓你嚐嚐味道,對吧?所以,如果我在 M365 Copilot 中,我可以產生一個 Excel 電子表格。好消息是,現在 Excel 電子表格可以理解 Office JS,並且其中包含公式。感覺就像,哇,這是一個由優秀模型創建的很棒的電子表格。更有趣的是,我可以在 Excel 中進入代理模式,並對該模型進行迭代。

  • And yet, it will stay on rail. It won't go off rail; it will be able to do the iteration. Then I can even give it to the analyst agent, and then it will even make sense of it like a data analyst would of our Excel model.

    然而,它仍將繼續沿著軌道運行。它不會脫軌;它能夠完成迭代。然後我甚至可以把它交給分析代理,它就能像資料分析師分析我們的 Excel 模型一樣理解它了。

  • The reason I say all of that is because that's the type of construction that will be needed even when the model is magical all powerful. I think we will be in this jagged intelligence phase for a long time. So one of the fundamental things that these -- whether it's GitHub, whether it's security, whether it's M365, the three main domains we're in, we feel very, very good about building these as organizing layers for agents to help customers.

    我之所以這麼說,是因為即使模型擁有魔法般的強大力量,也需要這種類型的構造。我認為我們將長期處於這種情報斷斷續續的階段。因此,這些領域——無論是 GitHub、安全還是 M365,我們所處的這三個主要領域——最根本的一點是,我們非常非常擅長建立這些組織層,以便代理商能夠幫助客戶。

  • And by the way, that's the same thing that we want to put into Foundry for our third-party customers. So that's kind of how people will build these multi-agent systems. So I feel actually pretty good about both the progress in AI. I don't think AGI as defined at least by us in our contract is ever going to be achieved anytime soon. But I do believe we can drive a lot of value for customers with advances in AI models by building these systems.

    順便說一句,這也是我們希望為第三方客戶在 Foundry 中加入的功能。所以人們大概就是這樣建構這些多智能體系統的。所以,我對人工智慧領域的進展感到非常滿意。我認為,至少按照我們合約中的定義,AGI(通用 ...但我相信,透過建構這些系統,借助人工智慧模型的進步,我們可以為客戶創造許多價值。

  • So it's kind of the real question that needs to be well understood. And I feel very, very confident about our ability to make progress.

    所以這才是真正需要理解的問題。我對我們取得進展的能力感到非常非常有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brent Thill, Jefferies.

    布倫特‧蒂爾,傑富瑞集團。

  • Brent Thill - Analyst

    Brent Thill - Analyst

  • Amy, on the bookings blowout. I guess many are somewhat concerned about concentration risk. And I think you noted a number of $100 million contracts, not to go into a lot of detail, but can you just give us a sense of what you're seeing in that 51% RPO and 110%-plus bookings growth that gives you confidence about what you're seeing in terms of the breadth and extent of some of these deals on a global basis.

    艾米談到預訂量激增的情況。我想很多人都有些擔心濃度過高的風險。我想您提到了一些價值 1 億美元的合同,這裡就不贅述細節了,但您能否簡要說明一下,您是如何看待 51% 的 RPO 增長和 110% 以上的預訂量增長的?這些成長讓您對這些交易在全球範圍內的廣度和規模充滿信心。

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Brent. A couple of things to maybe take a step back on RPO. With a nearly $400 billion balance, we've been trying to help people understand sort of how to think about really the breadth of that. It covers numerous products. It covers customers of all sizes.

    謝謝你,布倫特。關於RPO,有幾點或許需要重新考慮。我們擁有近 4000 億美元的資產餘額,我們一直在努力幫助人們理解如何真正思考這個數字的廣度。它涵蓋眾多產品。它涵蓋各種規模的客戶。

  • That's been a balance that we've been growing obviously at a good clip. But what people need to realize is it sits across multiple products because of the things Satya is talking about around creating systems and where we're investing.

    這種平衡我們一直在穩步提升。但人們需要意識到,它之所以能應用於多個產品,是因為薩蒂亞談到了創建系統以及我們投資的方向。

  • And if you're going to have that type of balance and then more importantly, have the weighted average duration be two years, it means that most of that is being consumed in relatively short order. People are not consuming, and I say this broadly, unless there's value. And I think this is why we keep coming back to are we creating real-world value in our AI platforms, in our AI solutions and apps and systems.

    如果你要達到那種平衡狀態,更重要的是,加權平均持續時間為兩年,這意味著大部分資金會在相對較短的時間內被消耗掉。人們不會消費,我這麼說只是泛指,除非商品有價值。我認為這就是為什麼我們不斷反思:我們的人工智慧平台、人工智慧解決方案、應用程式和系統是否創造了真正的價值?

  • And so I think the sort of the way to think about RPO is it's been building across a number of customers. We're thrilled to have OpenAI be a piece of that. We're learning a ton and building leading systems because of it that are being used at scale that benefits every other customer.

    所以我認為,看待 RPO 的方式應該是,它已經在許多客戶中得到應用。我們很高興 OpenAI 能參與其中。因此,我們學到了很多東西,並建立了領先的系統,這些系統正在大規模使用,使其他所有客戶受益。

  • And so it's why we've tried to give a little bit more color to that RPO balance because I do understand that there have been a lot of concerns or questions about is it long dated, is it coming over a long period of time. And hopefully, this is helpful for people to realize that these are contracts being signed by customers who intend to use it in relatively short order.

    所以,我們才試圖讓 RPO 平衡表更加豐富多彩,因為我理解大家對它的期限是否過長、是否會在較長時間內完成有很多擔憂或疑問。希望這能幫助人們意識到,這些合約是由打算在相對較短的時間內使用該服務的客戶簽署的。

  • And at that type of scale, I think that's a pretty remarkable execution.

    以這種規模來說,我認為這是一項非常了不起的執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Moerdler, Bernstein Research.

    Mark Moerdler,伯恩斯坦研究公司。

  • Mark Moerdler - Analyst

    Mark Moerdler - Analyst

  • Congratulations on the quarter. It's pretty amazing what you guys are doing. Satya and Amy, I'd like to ask you the number one question I receive, whether from investors or at AI conferences I attend, how much confidence do you have that the software, maybe the consumer internet business can monetize all the investments we're seeing globally?

    恭喜你本季取得佳績。你們所做的事情真是太了不起了。Satya 和 Amy,我想問你們一個我經常被問到的問題,無論是投資者還是我參加的人工智慧會議上的提問,你們對軟體,或許還有消費者互聯網業務,能否將我們目前在全球範圍內看到的所有投資變現有多大信心?

  • Or frankly, are we in a bubble? In fact, Amy, what would be the factors you'd be watching towards -- for to assure that you're not overbuilding to current demand and the demand will sustain.

    或者坦白說,我們是不是生活在一個泡泡之中?事實上,艾米,為了確保不會過度建設以滿足當前需求並維持需求,你會關注哪些因素?

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Maybe I'll start, Satya and then you could add. Let me talk a little bit about maybe connecting a couple of the dots because with $400 billion of RPO, that's sort of short-dated as we talked about, our needs to continue to build out the infrastructure is very high. And that's for booked business today. That is not any new booked business we started trying to accomplish on October 1, right?

    或許我可以先開始,薩蒂亞,然後你可以補充。讓我稍微談談如何將幾個要點聯繫起來,因為正如我們之前討論的,4000億美元的RPO(資源優先計劃)期限較短,我們迫切需要繼續建設基礎設施。這是今天已預訂的訂單數量。那不是我們從10月1日開始嘗試完成的任何新預訂業務,對吧?

  • And so the way to think about that, and you saw it this quarter in particular, and as we talked about '26, the remainder, number one, we're pivoting toward -- increasingly, we talked about this short-lived assets, both GPUs and CPUs, Again, we talk about all these workloads are burning both in terms of app building.

    所以,思考這個問題的方式是,尤其是在本季度,正如我們談到 2026 年剩餘時間時所看到的,第一,我們正在轉向——我們越來越多地談到這種短壽命資產,包括 GPU 和 CPU,再次強調,所有這些工作負載都在消耗,無論是應用程式建置方面。

  • Now when that happens, short-lived assets generally are done to match sort of the duration of the contracts or the duration of your expectation of those contracts. And so I sometimes think when people think about risk, they're not realizing that most of the lifetimes of these and the lifetime of the contracts are very similar.

    現在,當這種情況發生時,短期資產通常會按照合約期限或您對這些合約的預期期限進行配置。因此,我有時認為,當人們考慮風險時,他們並沒有意識到這些資產的生命週期與合約的生命週期非常相似。

  • And so when you think about having revenue and the bookings and coming on the balance sheet, the depreciation of short-lived assets, they're actually quite matched, Mark. And as you know, we've spent the past few years not actually being short GPUs and CPUs per se, we were short the space or the power is the language we used to put them in.

    所以,當你考慮到收入、預訂量以及資產負債表上的短期資產折舊時,它們實際上是相當匹配的,馬克。如你所知,過去幾年我們實際上並不缺少 GPU 和 CPU 本身,我們缺少的是空間,或者用我們過去的說法,是放置它們的電力。

  • So we spent a lot of time building out that infrastructure. Now we're continuing to do that also using leases. Those are very long-lived assets, as we've talked about 15 to 20 years. And over that period of time, do I have confidence that we'll need to use all of that, it is very high.

    所以我們花了很多時間來建造這套基礎設施。現在我們也在繼續這樣做,而且是透過租賃的方式。這些都是非常長壽的資產,正如我們之前所說,可以持有 15 到 20 年。在那段時間裡,我是否確信我們會使用所有這些資源?我的信心非常高。

  • And so when I think about sort of balancing those things, seeing the pivot to GPU, CPU short-lived, seeing the pivot in terms of how those are being utilized, we are -- and I said this now, we've been short now for many quarters. I thought we were going to catch up. We are not. Demand is increasing. It is not increasing in just one place.

    所以,當我考慮如何平衡這些事情時,看到向 GPU 的轉變,CPU 的短暫性,以及它們利用方式的轉變,我們——正如我剛才所說,我們已經連續幾個季度面臨短缺。我以為我們能趕上進度。我們不是。需求正在成長。它並非只在一個地方增加。

  • It is increasing across many places. We're seeing usage increases in products. We are seeing new products launch that are getting increasing usage, and increasing usage very quickly. When people see real value, they actually commit real usage.

    這種情況在很多地方都在增加。我們看到產品的使用量增加。我們看到新產品不斷推出,使用量迅速增加。當人們看到真正的價值時,他們才會真正投入使用。

  • And I sometimes think this is where this cycle needs to be thought through completely is that when you see these kind of demand signals and we know we're behind, we do need to spend. But we're spending with a different amount of confidence in usage patterns and in bookings, and I feel very good about that.

    我有時覺得,我們需要徹底思考這個週期,因為當我們看到這類需求訊號,並且知道我們落後了的時候,我們確實需要支出。但是,我們對使用模式和預訂情況的信心與以往有所不同,對此我感到非常滿意。

  • I have said we are now likely to be short capacity to serve the most important things we need to do, which is Azure, our first-party applications. We need to invest in product R&D and we're doing end-of-life replacements in the fleet. So we're going to spend to make sure that happens. It's about modernization. It's about high quality. It's about service delivery, and it's about meeting demand.

    我說過,我們現在可能面臨產能不足的問題,無法滿足我們最重要的需求,那就是 Azure 和我們的第一方應用程式。我們需要投資產品研發,並且我們正在對機隊中的舊設備進行報廢更換。所以我們會投入資金來確保這件事發生。這是關於現代化的問題。關鍵在於高品質。關鍵在於服務交付,在於滿足需求。

  • And so I feel good about doing that, and I feel good that we've been able to do it so efficiently and with a growing book of business behind it.

    因此,我對這樣做感到滿意,也對我們能夠如此有效率地完成這項工作,背後還有不斷成長的業務支援感到滿意。

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. The only thing I would add to what Amy captured was, if you sort of look out, there are two things that matter, I think, and that are critical in terms of how we think about our allocation of capital, also our R&D. One is how efficient is our planet-scale token factory, right? I mean that's at the end of the day, what you have to do. And in order to do that, you have to start with building out a very fungible fleet.

    是的。我唯一想補充的是,如果你仔細觀察,你會發現有兩件事很重要,我認為這兩件事對我們如何看待資本分配以及研發至關重要。第一個問題是,我們的全球規模代幣工廠效率如何?我的意思是,歸根結底,這就是你必須要做的事情。為了實現這一目標,你必須先建立一個高度可互換的艦隊。

  • It's not like we're building one data center in one region in the world that's mega scale. We are building it out across the globe for inference, for pre-training, for post-training, for RL, for data center or what have you. So therefore, that's the fungibility is super important.

    我們並不是想要在世界上的某個地區建造一個超大規模的資料中心。我們正在全球範圍內建立它,用於推理、預訓練、後訓練、強化學習、資料中心等等。所以,可替代性就顯得非常重要。

  • The second thing that we're also doing is continually modernizing the fleet. It's not like we buy one version of, say, NVIDIA and load up for all the gigawatts we have. Each year, you buy, you right the Moore's Law, you continuously modernize and depreciate it. And that means you also use software to grow efficiency. I talked about, I think, 30% improvement on both serving up GPT-4.1 and 5.0, right?

    我們正在做的第二件事是不斷對艦隊進行現代化改造。我們不可能只買一個版本的NVIDIA顯示卡,然後就把它載入到我們所有的電力需求上。每年你都購買,你都在修正摩爾定律,你不斷地更新換代,同時也使其貶值。這意味著你也會使用軟體來提高效率。我之前提到過,GPT-4.1 和 5.0 的效能都提升了 30%,對吧?

  • That's software. That's sort of -- and by the way, it's helpful on A100s, it's helpful on GB200s, and it will be helpful on GB300. That's the beauty of having the efficiency of the fleet.

    那是軟體。這有點——順便說一句,這對 A100s 有幫助,對 GB200s 有幫助,對 GB300 也將有幫助。這就是擁有高效能艦隊的優勢所在。

  • So you keep improving utilization, keep improving the efficiency. So that's what you do in the token factory. The other aspect, which Amy spoke to is we have some of the best agent systems that matter in the high-value domains, right? It's in information work. That's the Copilot system.

    所以你要不斷提高利用率,不斷提高效率。這就是代幣工廠的工作內容。艾米提到的另一個方面是,我們在高價值領域擁有一些最好的代理系統,對吧?這是資訊工作。那是副駕駛系統。

  • Coding, I mean, I should also say one of the things I like about Copilot is, I mean, Copilot ARPU is compared to M365 ARPUs, right? It's expansive. The same thing that happened between server and cloud like we used to always say, well, is it zero-sum, it turned out that the cloud was so much more expansive to the server market.

    說到編碼,我還應該說,我喜歡 Copilot 的一點是,Copilot 的 ARPU 可以與 M365 的 ARPU 進行比較,對吧?它範圍很廣。就像我們過去常說的,伺服器和雲端之間是不是零和遊戲一樣,結果證明雲端對伺服器市場的影響要大得多。

  • The same thing is happening in AI because first, you could say, hey, our ARPUs are too low when it comes to M365 or you could say we have the opportunity with AI to be much more expensive. Same thing with tools, right? I mean, tooling -- the tools business was not like a leading business, whereas coating business is going to be one of the most expansive AI systems. And so we feel very good about being in that category. Same thing with security, same thing with health.

    同樣的情況也發生在人工智慧領域,因為首先,你可以說,嘿,就 M365 而言,我們的 ARPU 太低了,或者你可以說,我們有機會透過人工智慧變得更貴。工具也是一樣,對吧?我的意思是,工具產業——工具產業並不是一個領先的產業,而塗料產業將成為人工智慧系統中最廣泛的產業之一。因此,我們非常高興能躋身這一行列。安全問題也是如此,健康問題也是如此。

  • So we have -- and in consumer, one of the things is it's not just about ads, it's ads plus subscriptions that also opens up opportunity for us.

    所以我們有——在消費者領域,其中一點是,這不僅僅是廣告,廣告加上訂閱也為我們帶來了機會。

  • So when I look at the entirety of these high-value agent systems and when we look at the efficiency of and fungibility of our fleet, that's what gives us the confidence to invest the capital and the R&D talent to go after this opportunity.

    所以,當我審視這些高價值代理系統的整體情況,以及我們代理團隊的效率和可替代性時,這給了我們信心去投入資金和研發人才去抓住這個機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Karl Keirstead, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的卡爾·基爾斯蒂德。

  • Karl Keirstead - Equity Analyst

    Karl Keirstead - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. This one is for Amy. Amy, I certainly don't want to take you down too complex an accounting path with this question, but the investment in OpenAI that sits in other income at $4.1 billion is so large that I think the audience could -- listening in could benefit from a little bit more color about what that is. It feels like it's it's so much larger than you were running through other income in prior quarters that it mustn't just be your share of the OpenAI losses. So could you just describe that?

    好的。這是給艾米的。艾米,我當然不想用這個問題把你引向過於複雜的會計問題,但是 OpenAI 在其他收入項下的 41 億美元投資數額巨大,我認為聽眾可以從對這筆投資的更多細節中受益。感覺這筆損失比你前幾季透過其他收入獲得的損失要大得多,所以這肯定不僅僅是你應承擔的 OpenAI 虧損份額。能描述一下嗎?

  • And what we can expect in subsequent quarters? And whether this signals any kind of accounting change?

    那麼,接下來的幾季我們又能期待些什麼呢?這是否預示著會計準則的任何變更?

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • The Q1 number was not impacted at all by the new agreement that was put in place. So let me first say that. Secondly, that increased loss was all due to our percentage of losses and OpenAI equity method. So just to be very clear. So there is not anything there that is not the increased losses from OpenAI.

    新協議的實施對第一季業績完全沒有影響。首先讓我說一句。其次,損失增加完全是由於我們的損失百分比和 OpenAI 公平性方法造成的。所以,我再說一次。所以,除了OpenAI造成的損失增加之外,沒有其他東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Murphy, JPMorgan.

    馬克墨菲,摩根大通。

  • Mark Murphy - Analyst

    Mark Murphy - Analyst

  • So we seem to be entering into a new era where the contractual commitments from a small number of AI natives are just incredibly large, not only in absolute terms, but sometimes relative to the size of the companies themselves. For instance, contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars that are 20x their current revenue scale. Philosophically, how do you evaluate the ability of those companies to follow through on these commitments? And how do you think about placing guardrails on customer concentration for any single entity?

    因此,我們似乎正在進入一個新時代,少數人工智慧原生企業所承擔的合約義務規模龐大,不僅絕對值如此,有時相對於公司本身的規模而言也是如此。例如,價值數千億美元的合同,是其當前收入規模的 20 倍。從哲學角度來看,你如何評價這些公司履行這些承諾的能力?那麼,您認為應該如何限制單一實體的顧客集中度呢?

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Maybe I'll start and then Amy, you can add. I mean it goes back a little bit, Mark, to what I said about building first, the asset itself such that it's most fungible. And then to recognize the strength of even sort of our portfolio, we have a third-party business, we have a first-party business, we have third-party also spread between enterprise, digital natives, I always felt that we need a balance there because it may start with digital natives. They're always going to be the early adopters.

    是的。也許我可以先開始,然後艾米,你可以接著說。我的意思是,馬克,這有點像我之前說的,首先要建立資產本身,使其具有最大的可互換性。然後,為了認識到我們投資組合的實力,我們有第三方業務,我們有第一方業務,我們的第三方業務也分佈在企業和數位原生企業之間,我一直覺得我們需要保持平衡,因為這可能始於數位原生企業。他們總是會成為早期使用者。

  • You always have the hit app of the generation. And then -- essentially then it spreads throughout. The enterprise adoption cycle is just starting and so therefore, having the -- over the arc of time, I think that third-party balance of customers will only increase.

    你總能找到當世最熱門的應用程式。然後——基本上就是這樣蔓延開來。企業採用週期才剛開始,因此,隨著時間的推移,我認為第三方客戶的比例只會增加。

  • But it's great to have the hit first-party apps in the beginning because you can build scale that then if it's a fungible and that's where the key is. You don't want to build for a digital native in -- as if you're just doing hosting for them. You want to build. That's where I think some of the decision-making of ours is probably getting better understood. What do we say yes to, what do we say no to.

    但一開始就擁有熱門的第一方應用程式是件好事,因為你可以建立規模,然後如果它是可替代的,那才是關鍵所在。你不想為數位原住民建立網站——就好像你只是在為他們提供託管服務一樣。你想建造。我認為,正是透過這種方式,我們的一些決策過程可能得到了更好的理解。我們對什麼說“是”,對什麼說“不”?

  • I think there was a lot of confusion, hopefully by now, anyone who switched on would figure this out. And so that's, I think, one thing we're doing on the third party.

    我認為當時大家很困惑,希望現在所有開機的人都能明白是怎麼回事了。所以,我認為這就是我們正在第三方方面所做的事情之一。

  • But the first party is probably where a lot of our leverage comes and it's not even about one hit app on our first-party even. Our portfolio of stuff which I just walked through in the earlier answer, gives us, again, the confidence that between that mix, we will be able to use our fleet to the maximum. And remember, these assets, especially the data centers and so on are long assets, right? There will be many refresh cycles for any one of these when it comes to the gear.

    但第一方可能是我們大部分優勢的來源,而且這甚至與我們第一方上的一個熱門應用無關。正如我在先前的回答中提到的,我們的產品組合再次讓我們相信,憑藉這些產品組合,我們將能夠最大限度地利用我們的車隊。記住,這些資產,特別是資料中心等等,都是長期資產,對吧?就裝備而言,任何一種裝備都會經歷多次更新換代。

  • So I feel that once you think about all those dimensions, the concentration risk gets mitigated by being thoughtful about how you really ensure the build is for the broad customer base.

    所以我覺得,一旦你考慮到所有這些方面,透過認真思考如何真正確保產品面向廣泛的客戶群,集中風險就會得到緩解。

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And maybe just to help with another angle that I think, Satya helped a lot is that when you think about concentration risk or delivering to any customer, you have to remember that because we're talking about this very large flexible fleet that can be used for anyone and for any purpose, 1P, 3P, and including our commercial cloud, by the way, which I should be quite clear on, it is pretty flexible in every regard, you have to remember that the CPU and GPU and the storage gear, does it come into play until the contracts start happening. And so you're right, some of these large contracts have delivery dates over time.

    或許可以從另一個角度來解釋,我認為 Satya 的解釋很有幫助。那就是,當你考慮集中風險或向任何客戶交付產品時,你必須記住,因為我們談論的是一個非常龐大且靈活的集群,可以供任何人用於任何用途,包括第一方、第三方,以及我們的商業雲。順便說一句,我應該非常明確地指出,它在各個方面都非常靈活。你必須記住,CPU、GPU 和儲存設備只有在合約開始生效後才會發揮作用。所以你說得對,這些大額合約中有些確實有分階段的交貨日期。

  • So you get a lot of lead time in being able to say, oh, what's the status? And so I think we're pretty thoughtful around what's always gone in our RPO balance, and then considerate of that. There's always been that taken into account when we publish that bookings on brand, publish the RPO balance.

    這樣你就有充足的時間去了解狀況,例如,哦,現在是什麼狀態?所以我覺得我們對 RPO 平衡中一直包含的內容都考慮得相當周全,並且會認真考慮這些內容。我們在發布品牌預訂資料、發布 RPO 餘額時,一直都會考慮到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brad Zelnick, Deutsche Bank.

    布拉德‧澤爾尼克,德意志銀行。

  • Brad Zelnick - Analyst

    Brad Zelnick - Analyst

  • And I'll echo my congrats on an amazing start to the year. Amy, is there any way to quantify or frame the revenue impact of Azure being short on capacity? And while I appreciate the constraints you face are broad across the industry, is there risk of workloads going elsewhere? And how do you mitigate that?

    我也要祝賀你們今年開局如此精彩。Amy,有沒有辦法量化或評估 Azure 容量不足對收入的影響?雖然我理解你們面臨的限制在整個產業都很普遍,但是否有工作量轉移到其他地方的風險?那如何緩解這種情況呢?

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Brad, it's a great question. It's always hard to quantify precisely what would have been the revenue impact in quarter. But I would offer a way to think about it is Azure probably does bear most of the revenue impact. Because when you think about real priorities that you have to fill first, it's obviously the increasing usage and adoption and sales we've seen of M365 Copilot and the usage of Copilot chat, which we've seen very different patterns, which we're encouraged by. It's the adoption of security features.

    是的,布拉德,這是一個很好的問題。要準確量化季度收入受到的影響總是很困難的。但我認為,Azure 可能確實承擔了大部分的收入影響。因為當你思考真正需要優先解決的問題時,很明顯是 M365 Copilot 的使用率、採用率和銷售額的不斷增長,以及 Copilot 聊天功能的使用情況,我們看到了非常不同的模式,這讓我們感到鼓舞。這是安全功能的採用。

  • It's the GitHub momentum.

    這是GitHub的發展動能。

  • And so when you're thinking about it, that is where and it is a priority for us to allocate resourcing there first. And so you are right to ask how do I think about that. We've worked very hard to try to mitigate it as best we can, but we have been short in Azure, and we've been clear on it. And I would say the other two priorities that I haven't mentioned maybe as much before is also just making sure our product teams and the AI talent that we've been able to hire into the company really over the past 1.5 years have access also to significant capacity because we're seeing it make the product better in a loop that is adding great benefit today into products people are using today for real-world work.

    所以,當你考慮這個問題時,那就是我們應該優先分配資源的地方。所以你問我對此有何看法,這是對的。我們已經盡最大努力來緩解這個問題,但是我們在 Azure 方面一直處於短缺狀態,這一點我們已經很清楚了。另外,我之前可能沒有過多提及的另外兩個優先事項是,確保我們的產品團隊和我們在過去一年半裡招募到公司的 AI 人才也能獲得充足的資源,因為我們看到它正在使產品變得更好,形成一個良性循環,為人們今天在實際工作中使用的產品帶來巨大的好處。

  • And so we are making that a priority to make sure our research teams have that as well as our product engineering teams. And yes, it does impact Azure directly. That is the place where you see that prioritization. But I think it's probably hard for me to give an exact number, but it is safe to say that the number could be higher.

    因此,我們將此作為優先事項,以確保我們的研發團隊和產品工程團隊都能獲得所需的資源。是的,這確實會對 Azure 產生直接影響。在那裡,你就能看出這個優先順序。但我認為我可能很難給出一個確切的數字,但可以肯定的是,這個數字可能會更高。

  • Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Operator, we have time for one last question.

    操作員,我們還有最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kash Rangan, Goldman Sachs.

    Kash Rangan,高盛集團。

  • Kash Rangan - Analyst

    Kash Rangan - Analyst

  • Amy, I just wanted to congratulate you, I think you said before that it is possible to accelerate Azure growth while getting efficient margins and you've done it. Congrats on that.

    艾米,我只是想祝賀你,我想你之前說過,可以在獲得有效利潤的同時加速 Azure 的成長,而你已經做到了。恭喜!

  • I have one for you, Satya. With respect to the elephant in the room, following just being a little more direct, following up on Keith Weiss' question. There's talk that another hyperscaler came in and took away the business that was rightfully Microsoft's. I'm sure that there is a different point of view here.

    薩蒂亞,我這裡有個問題想問你。關於這個顯而易見卻又難以啟齒的問題,我只想更直接一些,接著 Keith Weiss 的問題繼續討論。有傳言說,另一家超大規模資料中心營運商搶走了原本屬於微軟的業務。我相信這裡肯定存在著不同的觀點。

  • I'm wondering if you could offer some perspective on your criteria to -- is it about a certain volume of business that you wish to execute on the Microsoft paper? Or is it something broader than that, that I don't think maybe people fully appreciate the terminal value that Microsoft will have on its balance sheet at the end of these contracts, which I think is probably being underestimated as you have a full stack and you've got the multiple vectors to monetize, be it databases, Foundry.

    我想知道您能否就您的標準提供一些見解—您是否希望在微軟平台上完成一定數量的業務?或者說,問題可能比這更廣泛,我認為人們可能沒有充分意識到微軟在這些合約結束後資產負債表上的最終價值,我認為這可能被低估了,因為你擁有完整的技術棧,並且有多種盈利途徑,無論是數據庫還是 Foundry。

  • And to your point that you are a platform company, not just a hyperscaler. Maybe that's what it is all about, or maybe there's another story about you letting the other hyperscaler company coming from nowhere and claiming a big piece of that four- to five-year puzzle. And congratulations.

    正如你所說,你們是一家平台公司,而不僅僅是一家超大規模資料中心營運商。也許這就是事情的真相,也許還有另一個故事,那就是你讓另一家名不見經傳的超大規模資料中心公司搶佔了這四到五年拼圖中的很大一塊。恭喜!

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks, Kash. I mean for us, again, just always goes back to, I think, the core principle, which is build a fleet that is fungible across the planet and works for third-party and first-party and research. So that's essentially what we have done.

    謝謝你,卡什。我的意思是,對我們來說,一切最終都會回到核心原則,那就是建立一支可在全球範圍內互換使用,並能為第三方、第一方和研究機構服務的艦隊。所以,我們基本上就是這麼做的。

  • And so when some demand comes in shape, that don't fit that goal, where it's too concentrated, not just by customer, by location, by type of skewing, right? I think Amy mentioned some very key things. When you think about the margin profile of a hyperscaler, you've got to remember this, the AI accelerator piece, but there's compute, there's storage. And so if all of the demand just comes for just one meter, that's really not a long-term business we want to be in. That's even from a third party.

    因此,當某些需求出現時,如果這些需求與目標不符,過於集中,不僅體現在客戶方面,還體現在地點方面,體現在某種程度的偏差方面,對吧?我認為艾米提到了一些非常關鍵的事情。當你考慮超大規模資料中心的利潤率時,你必須記住這一點,即人工智慧加速器部分,但還有運算和儲存。因此,如果所有需求都只針對一米,那真的不是我們想要長期從事的業務。這甚至是來自第三方的資訊。

  • We have to balance it with all of our first-party stuff because that's after all a different margin stack for us. And then we have to fund our own R&D and model capability because in the long run, that's what's going to differentiate us.

    我們必須將其與我們所有的第一方業務進行平衡,因為畢竟這對我們來說是不同的利潤結構。然後,我們必須資助自己的研發和模型建構能力,因為從長遠來看,這才是讓我們脫穎而出的關鍵。

  • And so I look at all of those. We sort of use all of that to make sure we are saying yes to all the demand that we want, we say no to some of the demand that may be something that we could serve, but it's not in our long-term interest. And so that's sort of the decision-making we have done, and we feel very, very good about the decisions. In some sense, I feel even each time we say no to, the day after, I feel better.

    所以我會把這些都看一遍。我們利用所有這些因素來確保我們對所有我們想要的需求都說“是”,對一些我們可能能夠滿足但不符合我們長遠利益的需求說“不”。這就是我們所做的決策,我們對這些決策感到非常非常滿意。從某種意義上說,我覺得每次我們拒絕之後,第二天我都會感覺好一點。

  • Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And just Kash, I think this is our last call with you. And I just want to say thanks and congratulations. It's been a privilege to work with you and best of luck.

    卡什,我想這是我們最後一次跟你通話了。我只想說聲謝謝和祝賀。能與您共事是我的榮幸,祝您一切順利。

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me add to that, Best of luck, Kash.

    我還要補充一句:祝你好運,卡什。

  • Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jonathan Neilson - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Kash. That wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon.

    謝謝你,卡什。今天的財報電話會議問答環節到此結束。感謝各位今天蒞臨,我們期待很快能與各位再次交流。

  • Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Satya Nadella - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you all.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,感謝您的參與。