科林研發 (LRCX) 2027 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation September 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2026 年 9 月季度財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 在今天的簡報之後，將提供提問的機會。(接線員指示) 也請注意，今天的活動將會錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ram Ganesh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Ram Ganesh。請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the September 2026 quarter and our outlook for the December 2026 quarter.

謝謝，各位下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁暨執行長 Tim Archer，以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Doug Bettinger。在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享對營運環境的觀點，並回顧 2026 年 9 月季度的財務結果，以及對 2026 年 12 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 PM Pacific Time. The release and the accompanying presentation slides for today's call can be also found on the Investors section of the company's website.

詳述我們財務結果的新聞稿已於太平洋時間下午 1:00 過後不久發布。新聞稿以及今天電話會議所搭配的簡報投影片，也可在公司網站的「投資人」專區找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

今天的簡報與問答包含以前瞻性陳述為主的內容，係基於我們目前的信念、預期與假設。這些陳述受到風險與不確定性影響，實際結果可能與此類陳述所明示或暗示者有重大差異。

For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to the risk factors in our most recently filed periodic reports on Form 10-K, and Form 10-Q and subsequent filings with the SEC and the cautionary statement in the accompanying presentation slides.

關於可能導致實際結果與前述陳述有重大差異之因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 Form 10-K 與 Form 10-Q 定期報告及其後向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件中的風險因素，以及隨附簡報投影片中的警示性聲明。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying presentation slides. This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 PM Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website.

除非另有說明，今天對財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調節表可在隨附簡報投影片中找到。本次電話會議預計進行至太平洋時間下午 3:00。今天下午稍晚將在我們的網站提供本次電話會議的重播。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

接下來，我把電話交給 Tim。

Thanks, Ram, and thank you to everyone joining us today. In the September quarter, Lam again delivered record revenue and profitability, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS all reached new highs with operating margin topping 40% for the first time.

謝謝你，Ram，也感謝今天加入我們的各位。在 9 月季度，Lam 再次創下營收與獲利能力的新紀錄；毛利率、營業利益率與每股盈餘（EPS）皆達到新高，其中營業利益率更是首次突破 40%。

Our performance throughout the year reflects the broad strength of our product portfolio and a relentless focus on operational execution as AI continues to drive unprecedented semiconductor demand and increasing device complexity. Including the midpoint of our December quarter guidance, we expect calendar year 2026 systems revenue to grow well over 40% year-on-year, rising deposition and etch intensity across all device types and advanced packaging solutions is continuing to drive greater opportunity for Lam.

我們全年表現反映出產品組合的廣泛優勢，以及在 AI 持續推動前所未有的半導體需求與裝置複雜度提升之際，我們對營運執行的持續專注。若包含我們對 12 月季度財測的中位數，我們預期 2026 年曆年系統營收將年增遠超過 40%；隨著各類裝置與先進封裝解決方案的沉積與蝕刻強度提升，Lam 的機會也持續擴大。

Over the past few years, increasing device complexity and a push towards greater 3D scaling have driven a four point expansion of our Served Available Market, or SAM, as a percentage of WFE. When combined with share gains from products addressing this growing SAM, we expect 2026 to mark our third consecutive year of WFE outperformance.

過去幾年，裝置複雜度提升以及朝向更高 3D 縮放的趨勢，推動我們的可服務可用市場（Served Available Market，SAM）占晶圓廠設備（WFE）比重擴大了 4 個百分點。當再結合我們在因應此一擴大 SAM 的產品上取得的市占提升，我們預期 2026 年將是我們連續第三年在 WFE 上表現超越整體市場。

For calendar year 2026, we expect WFE in the mid $150 billion range. Our preliminary 2027 WFE outlook is for more than $200 billion of spending with percentage growth led by DRAM, followed by leading-edge foundry logic and NAND.

就 2026 年曆年而言，我們預期 WFE 約在 1,500 億美元中段水準。我們對 2027 年 WFE 的初步展望為支出超過 2,000 億美元，成長率以 DRAM 領先，其次為先進製程晶圓代工邏輯與 NAND。

As we move into calendar year 2027, we see clean room space availability and supply chain constraints for certain components continuing to limit chip makers and equipment companies' ability to fully meet end demand. We are actively working with our suppliers to accelerate their capacity expansion plans and are confident Lam is well positioned to deliver on the strong demand we see ahead.

展望 2027 年曆年，我們看到無塵室空間可用性以及部分元件的供應鏈限制，仍將持續限制晶片製造商與設備公司充分滿足終端需求的能力。我們正積極與供應商合作，加速其產能擴充計畫，並有信心 Lam 已做好充分準備，能夠因應我們所看到的強勁前景需求。

Underpinning our outlook for WFE growth is the continued rapid adoption of AI by enterprises and consumers. It is reported that average weekly token usage is up roughly 250 fold in the past 18 months. As AI moves increasingly towards autonomous agentic workflows, demand for compute, memory and storage solutions continues to expand.

支撐我們對 WFE 成長展望的，是企業與消費者持續快速採用 AI。據報導，過去 18 個月平均每週 token 使用量約成長 250 倍。隨著 AI 越來越走向自主的代理式（agentic）工作流程，對運算、記憶體與儲存解決方案的需求持續擴大。

For example, in NAND, AI performance and economics are driving demand for multiple tiers of storage, each optimized for different workloads. QLC today provides cost-effective storage for rapidly growing AI data volumes. TLC storage is used as a high-bandwidth tier for context memory and KV cache workloads. And SLC class NAND is emerging for low latency, high-speed access in agentic AI.

例如在 NAND 方面，AI 的效能與經濟性正推動對多層級儲存的需求，每一層級皆針對不同工作負載進行最佳化。目前 QLC 提供具成本效益的儲存，以因應快速成長的 AI 資料量。TLC 儲存則作為高頻寬層級，用於情境記憶（context memory）與 KV cache 工作負載。而 SLC 等級 NAND 正在興起，用於代理式 AI 所需的低延遲、高速存取。

We believe adoption of an SLC storage tier could become a meaningful driver of NAND wafer capacity. Converting from TLC to SLC class devices reduces bits per device by roughly 3 times. Said differently, for each percentage point mix shift of NAND bits to SLC class devices, approximately 2% more installed wafer capacity will be needed to support the same bit demand. Incremental growth in bit demand would further amplify wafer capacity requirements.

我們認為，採用 SLC 儲存層級可能成為推動 NAND 晶圓產能的重要驅動因素。從 TLC 轉換為 SLC 等級裝置，單一裝置的位元數大約會減少 3 倍。換句話說，NAND 位元組合每有 1 個百分點轉向 SLC 等級裝置，為了支撐相同的位元需求，約需要增加 2% 的既有晶圓產能。若位元需求本身再增長，將進一步放大對晶圓產能的需求。

We expect all three storage tiers to grow, increasing the value and strategic importance of NAND. We believe Lam is best positioned to benefit from this inflection. We have the industry's largest installed base of NAND systems and a comprehensive product portfolio spanning all critical deposition and etch steps.

我們預期這三種儲存層級都將成長，進一步提升 NAND 的價值與策略重要性。我們相信 Lam 最有能力從這個拐點中受益。我們擁有業界最大的 NAND 系統裝機基礎，以及涵蓋所有關鍵沉積與蝕刻步驟的完整產品組合。

Any increase in NAND bit demand, whether satisfied through installed base upgrades or capacity additions, will generate additional need for Lam's tools and technology. Foundry logic and DRAM are seeing a similar device level evolution to satisfy AI's emerging performance requirements.

NAND 位元需求的任何增加，無論是透過既有裝機基礎升級或新增產能來滿足，都將帶動對 Lam 設備與技術的額外需求。晶圓代工邏輯與 DRAM 也正經歷類似的裝置層級演進，以滿足 AI 新興的效能需求。

From advanced patterning and backside power to next-generation packaging, we see billions of dollars of potential SAM expansion and share gain opportunities for Lam in the years ahead. We are seeing the impact of our targeted investments in foundry logic and DRAM products in our calendar year 2026 results. These two market segments have accounted for approximately 80% of Lam's systems revenue growth year-to-date.

從先進圖形化（patterning）與背面供電（backside power），到下一代封裝，我們看到未來幾年 Lam 在 SAM 擴張與市占提升方面具有數十億美元的潛在機會。我們在晶圓代工邏輯與 DRAM 產品上的重點投資，其成效已反映在 2026 年曆年的業績結果中。截至目前，這兩個市場區隔約占 Lam 系統營收年初至今成長的 80%。

A good example is our focus on advanced patterning requirements for foundry, logic, and DRAM. With each technology node bringing more stringent EUV pattern fidelity and defectivity requirements, Lam's Akara conductor etch and Aether dry resist tools are being paired to deliver unprecedented scaling capability.

一個很好的例子是我們聚焦於晶圓代工、邏輯與 DRAM 的先進圖形化需求。隨著每一代製程節點對 EUV 圖形保真度與缺陷率提出更嚴苛的要求，Lam 的 Akara 導體蝕刻（conductor etch）與 Aether 乾式光阻（dry resist）設備正被搭配使用，以提供前所未有的縮放能力。

Importantly, these tools are also helping improve the productivity of DRAM scaling at a time when maximizing fab output is a critical priority for our customers. Multiple chipmakers are adopting Akara for its ability to etch very high aspect ratio features with exceptional profile control, while at the same time, delivering up to a 50% reduction in wafer-to-wafer and lot-to-lot variability and up to a 50% gain in wafer output per fab footprint.

重要的是，這些設備也在 DRAM 縮放上協助提升生產力；在當前對客戶而言，最大化晶圓廠產出是關鍵優先事項。多家晶片製造商正採用 Akara，因其能以卓越的輪廓控制蝕刻極高深寬比特徵；同時可將晶圓對晶圓與批次對批次的變異降低最多 50%，並使每單位廠房面積的晶圓產出提升最多 50%。

Similarly, Lam's Aether dry resist solution has demonstrated sub-10-nanometer resolution at the highest pattern density and fidelity with high-NA EUV. It helps achieve this result while requiring 10% lower exposure dose, improving scanner productivity and reducing patterning cost per wafer.

同樣地，Lam 的 Aether 乾式光阻解決方案已在高 NA EUV 下，以最高圖形密度與保真度展現次 10 奈米解析度。它在達成此結果的同時，所需曝光劑量降低 10%，提升掃描機生產力並降低每片晶圓的圖形化成本。

Aether solutions are already ramping in HBM high-volume manufacturing with low-NA EUV, and we see additional insertion opportunities ahead across both DRAM and foundry logic customers. As a result, we now expect cumulative Aether-related revenue to reach approximately $2.5 billion by the end of the decade, roughly $1 billion above our prior expectations.

Aether 解決方案已在採用低 NA EUV 的 HBM 量產中加速導入（ramping），我們也看到未來在 DRAM 與晶圓代工邏輯客戶端仍有更多導入機會。因此，我們現在預期到本十年末，Aether 相關累計營收將達到約 25 億美元，較先前預期高出約 10 億美元。

Backside power is another example of where Lam's strength in deposition and etch is evident. Separating power and signal routing allows for thicker backside metallization to reduce resistance and improve power efficiency.

背面供電是另一個能展現 Lam 在沉積與蝕刻方面實力的例子。將電源與訊號走線分離，可採用更厚的背面金屬化層以降低電阻並提升電源效率。

Implementation increases process complexity, driving the need for more deposition, plating, and etch steps. As customers ramp backside power at 2-nanometer and below, our production-proven Vector, Sabre and Flex tools are well suited to the task. Vector provides industry-leading footprint density and wafer-to-wafer repeatability with its unique quad architecture.

導入將提高製程複雜度，進而帶動對更多沉積、電鍍與蝕刻步驟的需求。隨著客戶在 2 奈米及以下節點加速導入背面供電，我們經過量產驗證的 Vector、Sabre 與 Flex 設備非常適合承擔此任務。Vector 以其獨特的四模組架構，提供業界領先的占地密度與晶圓對晶圓的重複性。

Sabre is the global industry benchmark for electroplating due to its high productivity and superior on-wafer performance. Flex delivers high throughput dielectric etch with low defect levels leveraging its differentiated small volume chamber design and confined plasma. New materials such as molybdenum are also being introduced to enable more efficient electrical connections between the backside and front side of the wafer.

Sabre 以高生產力與優異的晶圓內表現，成為電鍍領域的全球業界標竿。Flex 透過其差異化的小體積腔體設計與受限電漿，在維持低缺陷水準下提供高吞吐量的介電質蝕刻。亦正導入如鉬等新材料，以實現晶圓背面與正面之間更高效率的電性連接。

For this emerging application, our Halo tool is gaining traction by enabling both plasma and thermal processes within a single chamber while delivering industry-leading productivity. We are gaining share in this expanding backside power SAM opportunity and recently secured tool of record wins for all 4 products at a leading customer.

針對此新興應用，我們的 Halo 設備因可在單一腔體內同時支援電漿與熱製程，並提供業界領先的生產力而逐漸獲得採用。在這個持續擴大的背面供電 SAM 機會中，我們正提升市占，並近期在一位領先客戶處取得四項產品全數成為指定機台（tool of record）的勝利。

In advanced packaging, our market-leading Syndion product is winning advanced logic and HBM TSV applications. Syndion's differentiated hardware design enables rapid process switching to deliver highly uniform TSV profiles, smooth sidewalls, and high-volume productivity. Recently, we attained four new positions across multiple customers.

在先進封裝方面，我們市場領先的 Syndion 產品正贏得先進邏輯與 HBM 的 TSV 應用。Syndion 差異化的硬體設計可快速切換製程，提供高度均勻的 TSV 輪廓、平滑的側壁以及高產量生產力。近期，我們在多家客戶中新增取得四個新位置。

Our Striker ALD product also achieved multiple TSV liner wins due to the film's superior step coverage and low etch rate. Beyond TSV applications, we secured additional Vector and TEOS 3D wins for high-energy bonding films and inter-die gap fill applications by delivering lower defectivity for thick film deposition. With its high deposition and etch intensity, advanced packaging has become a major growth driver for Lam.

我們的 Striker ALD 產品亦因薄膜具備優異的步階覆蓋率與低蝕刻速率，而取得多項 TSV 內襯（liner）訂單。除 TSV 應用外，我們也在高能量鍵合薄膜與晶粒間間隙填充（inter-die gap fill）應用上，透過提供較低缺陷率的厚膜沉積，取得額外的 Vector 與 TEOS 3D 訂單。由於具備高沉積與高蝕刻強度，先進封裝已成為 Lam 的主要成長驅動力。

For next-generation AI and high-performance computing devices, customers are increasingly turning their sights towards panel-level packaging to scale manufacturing. Our panel level packaging portfolio continues to gain momentum across fan-out packaging, glass core substrates, and emerging substrate and interposer architectures.

針對下一代 AI 與高效能運算裝置，客戶正日益將目光轉向面板級封裝，以擴大製造規模。我們的面板級封裝產品組合在扇出型封裝、玻璃核心基板，以及新興基板與中介層（interposer）架構方面持續累積動能。

To date, we have shipped panel plating systems to more than 20 customers worldwide across panel sizes ranging from 300 by 300-millimeter to 600 by 600-millimeter. Customers continue to select our Kallisto platform for its differentiated coplanarity and plating uniformity performance across bumps, pillars, and redistribution layers.

截至目前，我們已向全球超過 20 家客戶出貨面板電鍍系統，面板尺寸涵蓋 300×300 毫米至 600×600 毫米。客戶持續選擇我們的 Kallisto 平台，因其在凸塊（bumps）、柱狀結構（pillars）與重佈線層（redistribution layers）上具備差異化的共平面度與電鍍均勻性表現。

Kallisto is also well-positioned to benefit from increasing adoption of glass core substrates through emerging through glass via applications. Given our customer engagement, installed base growth and technology leadership, we expect to achieve panel-level packaging market share that surpasses the strong position we already hold in current wafer-level packaging.

隨著經由玻璃通孔（through glass via, TGV）等新興應用帶動玻璃核心基板採用率提升，Kallisto 亦具備良好受益定位。基於我們的客戶互動、裝機基礎成長與技術領先地位，我們預期在面板級封裝的市占將超越我們目前在晶圓級封裝所已具備的強勢地位。

And finally, turning to CSBG. We are set to exit calendar year 2026 with solid momentum with annual revenue expected to grow more than 30% year-over-year. This is more than twice the rate of our long-term target set at our last Analyst Day.

最後，談到 CSBG。我們預計在 2026 曆年結束時將以穩健動能收官，年度營收預期年增超過 30%。這一增速超過我們在上一次分析師日所設定長期目標的兩倍以上。

Growth is broad-based across upgrades, spares, and services supported by high fab utilization and customers' continued focus on installed base efficiency. The value we are delivering with Equipment Intelligence and Dextro Cobots recently helped us secure performance-based service contracts with multiple memory manufacturers. We expect CSBG momentum to continue in calendar year 2027 with revenue growing over 15% year-over-year.

成長動能廣泛分布於升級、備品與服務，並受惠於晶圓廠高稼動率以及客戶持續聚焦提升裝機基礎效率。我們透過 Equipment Intelligence 與 Dextro 協作機器人（Cobots）所提供的價值，近期協助我們與多家記憶體製造商簽下以績效為基礎的服務合約。我們預期 CSBG 的動能將延續至 2027 曆年，營收年增超過 15%。

So to wrap up, we believe the industry is in the early stages of a multi-year investment cycle with customer visibility extending through 2028. Increasing manufacturing complexity, new materials integration and advanced packaging are driving higher deposition and etch intensity across device segments. Our technology leadership, growing installed base, and strategic investments in product innovation and manufacturing capacity position Lam to capitalize on these inflections and drive sustained outperformance.

總結而言，我們認為產業正處於為期多年的投資循環早期階段，客戶能見度可延伸至 2028 年。製造複雜度提升、新材料整合與先進封裝，正推動各裝置領域更高的沉積與蝕刻強度。我們的技術領先地位、持續成長的裝機基礎，以及在產品創新與製造產能上的策略性投資，使 Lam 得以把握這些拐點並推動長期、持續的優於同業表現。

Thank you, and here's Doug.

謝謝，接下來交給 Doug。

Great. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a very busy earnings season. We were pleased with our continued strong execution in the September quarter, resulting in our fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue as well as record gross margin, operating margin, and earnings per share.

很好。謝謝你，Tim。各位下午好，也感謝大家在我知道非常忙碌的財報季期間加入我們今天的電話會議。我們對 9 月季度持續強勁的執行表現感到滿意，這使我們連續第五個季度創下營收新高，同時也創下毛利率、營業利益率與每股盈餘的新高。

September quarter revenue was $8.22 billion, which was up 22% sequentially and up 54% from the same period in 2025. The deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $2.66 billion, which was an increase of $227 million from the June quarter. This grew primarily due to increased sales volume, and it was partially offset by a decrease in customer down payments.

9 月季度營收為 82.2 億美元，季增 22%，並較 2025 年同期成長 54%。季度末遞延收入餘額為 26.6 億美元，較 6 月季度增加 2.27 億美元。此增長主要來自銷售量提升，但部分被客戶預付款下降所抵銷。

From a market segment perspective, September quarter systems revenue in memory was 46%, which was consistent with the prior quarter.

從市場區隔來看，9 月季度記憶體系統營收占比為 46%，與前一季度一致。

On a dollar basis, this represented a record level for memory, and it was up 120% from the same period in 2025. Within memory, non-volatile memory accounted for 26% of our systems revenue, up from the June quarter's level of 23%. On a dollar basis, NAND revenue increased approximately 40% sequentially as the industry continued spending on conversions to 256 layer and above class devices.

以金額計，這代表記憶體創下歷史新高，並較 2025 年同期成長 120%。在記憶體之中，非揮發性記憶體占我們系統營收的 26%，高於 6 月季度的 23%。以金額計，隨著產業持續投入將產線轉換至 256 層及以上等級裝置，NAND 營收約季增 40%。

We are seeing initial spending on 384 layer class devices. DRAM revenue reached a record growing sequentially on a dollar basis, but down a little bit on a percentage basis from 23% of systems revenue in the June quarter to 20% in the September quarter. DRAM spending remained focused on technology additions and upgrades across the 1-alpha, 1-beta and 1-gamma nodes that is enabling DDR5, LPDDR5 and more importantly, high-bandwidth memory.

我們也看到 384 層等級裝置的初期支出。DRAM 營收以金額計季增並創下新高，但以占比計則從 6 月季度系統營收的 23% 小幅下降至 9 月季度的 20%。DRAM 支出仍聚焦於 1-alpha、1-beta 與 1-gamma 節點的技術新增與升級，以支援 DDR5、LPDDR5，更重要的是高頻寬記憶體。

Foundry also achieved record revenue. Its strength -- excuse me, its share of systems revenue increased to 46% from 44% in the June quarter. Strength in the quarter was driven by investment in leading-edge nodes, including advanced packaging, as well as mature node spending in China.

晶圓代工也達成營收新高。其系統營收占比由 6 月季度的 44% 提升至 46%。本季度的強勁表現主要由先進節點投資（包含先進封裝）以及中國的成熟節點支出所帶動。

And finally, Logic and Other were 8% of our systems revenue in the September quarter, slightly down from the prior quarter's level of 10%. Most of the spending here was targeted at leading-edge process nodes.

最後，邏輯與其他在 9 月季度占我們系統營收的 8%，較前一季度的 10% 略降。此處的大部分支出主要投向先進製程節點。

Let me now discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. China contributed 35% of revenue, up from the June quarter level of 26%. We saw strong investments here by both domestic and multinational customers. In the December quarter, we expect China will represent a significantly lower percentage of our total revenue compared with the September quarter.

接下來我談談我們總營收的區域組成。中國貢獻營收的 35%，高於 6 月季度的 26%。我們看到國內與跨國客戶在此皆有強勁投資。在 12 月季度，我們預期中國占總營收的比重將顯著低於 9 月季度。

Korea's contribution to revenue in the September quarter remained unchanged from the June quarter level at 20%. The Taiwan region contributed 18% of revenue down from the June quarter at 27%.

韓國在 9 月季度的營收貢獻維持不變，與 6 月季度同為 20%。台灣地區貢獻營收的 18%，低於 6 月季度的 27%。

The Customer Support Business Group generated a fourth consecutive quarter of record revenues at nearly $2.5 billion in the September quarter. This was up slightly from the June quarter and 40% higher than the same period in 2025. Each component of CSBG remains strong with the prior quarter.

客戶支援事業群（CSBG）在 9 月季度創下連續第四個季度的營收新高，接近 25 億美元。此數字較 6 月季度略增，並較 2025 年同期高出 40%。CSBG 的各個組成項目相較前一季度仍維持強勁。

Turning to the gross margin performance. The September quarter came in at an all-time record of 52.4%, improving from the June quarter level of 52% due to favorable customer and product mix. Additionally, we continue to balance our cost and pricing postures. Operating expenses for the [September] (corrected by company after the call) quarter were $1 billion up from the prior quarter amount of $916 million. The increase was primarily driven by higher incentive compensation due to our increased profitability levels.

接著談毛利率表現。9 月季度毛利率達到歷史新高的 52.4%，較 6 月季度的 52% 提升，主要受惠於有利的客戶與產品組合。此外，我們持續在成本與定價策略之間取得平衡。[9 月]（公司於會後更正）季度的營業費用為 10 億美元，高於前一季度的 9.16 億美元。增加主要由於獲利水準提升，帶動較高的激勵性薪酬。

We are also investing incremental resources to support growing programs like Akara, Halo, Panel Form Factors, and Dextro. R&D accounted for nearly -- or excuse me, approximately two-thirds of our total operating expenses. Operating margin for the September quarter was another record at 40.2% compared to the June quarter level of 38.4%. This improvement reflected stronger gross margins and continuing operating leverage as our business scales.

我們也在投入額外資源，以支援 Akara、Halo、Panel Form Factors 與 Dextro 等成長中的專案。研發（R&D）約占我們總營運費用的三分之二——或者更精確地說，約為三分之二。9 月季度的營業利益率再創新高，達 40.2%，相較於 6 月季度的 38.4%。這項改善反映了更強勁的毛利率，以及隨著業務規模擴大而持續展現的營運槓桿。

The non-GAAP tax rate was 16.5% for the quarter compared to 11% in the June quarter and in line with our expectations. The increase was primarily driven by a higher US tax rate on foreign earnings as well as expected shifts in the geographic mix of income. We expect the tax rate to remain in this range for the December quarter and likelybeyond. I'd encourage everyone to make sure they have their earnings models updated to this higher tax rate.

本季度的非 GAAP 稅率為 16.5%，相較於 6 月季度的 11% 有所上升，且符合我們的預期。上升主要是由於美國對海外盈餘適用的稅率較高，以及所得地理分布組合如預期發生變化所致。我們預期 12 月季度的稅率將維持在此區間，且很可能在之後也會如此。我建議大家務必將你們的獲利模型更新為這個較高的稅率。

Other income and expense for the September quarter was approximately $16 million in income compared with $19 million in expense in the June quarter. The improvement in OI&E was due to foreign exchange fluctuations, higher interest income as well as favorability in our venture portfolio.

9 月季度的其他收入與費用（OI&E）約為 1,600 萬美元的收入，相較於 6 月季度為 1,900 萬美元的費用。OI&E 的改善來自外匯波動、較高的利息收入，以及我們創投投資組合的有利表現。

And as we've talked about in the past, you should expect to see some variability in OI&E quarter-to-quarter dictated by market factors. For the September quarter, diluted earnings per share were a record at $2.20. The diluted share count was roughly 1.26 billion shares, which was relatively unchanged with the June quarter.

如同我們過去所談到的，你們應該預期 OI&E 會在各季度之間因市場因素而有所波動。9 月季度的稀釋後每股盈餘創下紀錄，為 2.20 美元。稀釋後股數約為 12.6 億股，與 6 月季度相比大致持平。

Let me pivot to capital return. We allocated approximately $1 billion to share repurchases, and we paid $325 million in dividends in the September quarter. During the quarter, we entered into an accelerated share repurchase structure that we'll continue to execute in the December quarter. We returned approximately 41% of free cash flow in the quarter and [57%] (corrected by company after the call) in the calendar year-to-date.

接著我轉到資本回饋。我們在 9 月季度配置約 10 億美元用於庫藏股回購，並支付 3.25 億美元股利。本季度我們進入一項加速股票回購（ASR）架構，並將在 12 月季度持續執行。我們在本季度回饋了約 41% 的自由現金流，並在本曆年至今為 [57%]（公司於電話會議後更正）。

I would point out that we also used $750 million to pay down maturing debt during the year. Our long-term plans remain to return 85% of free cash flow to shareholders. We have $3 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase program. Our cash and short-term investments totaled $7.5 billion at the end of the September quarter, which was up from $5.6 billion at the end of the June quarter.

我也要指出，我們今年亦使用 7.5 億美元償還到期債務。我們的長期計畫仍是將 85% 的自由現金流回饋給股東。在董事會授權的股票回購計畫下，我們尚餘 30 億美元額度。截至 9 月季度末，我們的現金與短期投資合計為 75 億美元，高於 6 月季度末的 56 億美元。

The factors behind the increase were cash from operating activities, partly offset by our capital return activities as well as capital expenditure. The September quarter was also a record for our free cash flow, coming in at $3.24 billion in the quarter. And as I mentioned last quarter, we've been increasing our cash levels a little bit to support growing business volumes as well as capital investments in this growing demand environment.

增加的因素包括營運活動帶來的現金流入，但部分被資本回饋活動以及資本支出所抵銷。9 月季度的自由現金流也創下紀錄，本季度達 32.4 億美元。如我上季提到的，我們一直在小幅提高現金水位，以支援業務量成長，以及在此需求成長環境下的資本投資。

Day sales outstanding were 63 days in the September quarter, a decrease from 72 days in the June quarter. Inventory at the September quarter end totaled $4.6 billion, which was an increase of $274 million from the June quarter as we're building inventory to meet the expected future demand for our products.

9 月季度的應收帳款週轉天數（DSO）為 63 天，較 6 月季度的 72 天下降。9 月季度末的存貨總額為 46 億美元，較 6 月季度增加 2.74 億美元，因為我們正在建立存貨以滿足對我們產品預期的未來需求。

Nonetheless, inventory turns continued to strengthen to 3.4 times versus 3 times in the prior quarter. I would just mention this was the highest level of inventory turns in nearly seven years. Our non-cash expenses for the September quarter included approximately $115 million in equity compensation, $106 million in depreciation, and $16 million for amortization.

儘管如此，存貨週轉率仍持續改善至 3.4 次，相較於前一季度的 3 次。我補充一下，這是近七年來最高的存貨週轉水準。9 月季度的非現金費用包括約 1.15 億美元的股權薪酬、1.06 億美元的折舊，以及 1,600 萬美元的攤銷。

Capital expenditures in the September quarter were $258 million, which was up from the June quarter at $189 million. Capital spending grew as we continue to increase our lab infrastructure and expand our manufacturing facilities globally. We ended the September quarter with approximately 24,300 regular full-time employees, which was a growth of approximately 1,900 people from the prior quarter. Headcount increased primarily in our factory and field teams to support expanding manufacturing activities and growing tool installations. We also added head count in R&D.

9 月季度的資本支出為 2.58 億美元，高於 6 月季度的 1.89 億美元。隨著我們持續提升實驗室基礎設施並在全球擴充製造設施，資本支出也隨之增加。9 月季度末，我們約有 24,300 名正式全職員工，較前一季度增加約 1,900 人。人力增加主要在工廠與現場團隊，以支援擴大的製造活動與日益增加的設備安裝。我們也在研發部門增加人力。

Now let's turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December 2026 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $8.6 billion, plus or minus $400 million. I would mention that this revenue guide would have been a bit higher, if not for some near-term supply chain constraints that we are actively managing.

現在來看我們對 2026 年 12 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。我們預期營收為 86 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元。我想提到的是，若非我們正在積極管理的一些短期供應鏈限制，這個營收指引本來會略高一些。

We're expecting gross margin of 52.5% plus or minus 1-percentage-point. This is improving a little bit in spite of headwinds related to customer mix. We're expecting gross -- operating margin of 40.5%, plus or minus 1-percentage-point. And finally, earnings per share of $2.33, plus or minus $0.15, based on a share count of approximately 1.253 billion shares.

我們預期毛利率為 52.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。儘管面臨與客戶組合相關的逆風，毛利率仍略有改善。我們預期營業利益率為 40.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，基於約 12.53 億股的股數，我們預期每股盈餘為 2.33 美元，上下浮動 0.15 美元。

So let me wrap up. We continue to execute our strategy for outperformance delivering another quarter of record revenue and profitability. Operating margin exceeded 40% for the first time in our history, and we're guiding for this to expand slightly. We're increasing R&D investment to strengthen the already strong product portfolio that we have. We're also investing in the infrastructure needed to support the growing demand we expect in the future. These activities continue to deliver a return on invested capital level that is comfortably above the competition.

我做個總結。我們持續執行超越市場表現的策略，再度交出一季創紀錄的營收與獲利能力。營業利益率在公司歷史上首次突破 40%，而我們的指引也預期其將小幅擴張。我們正在增加研發投資，以強化我們本已強勁的產品組合。我們也在投資必要的基礎設施，以支援我們預期未來將持續成長的需求。這些活動持續帶來顯著高於競爭對手的投入資本報酬率水準。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們的事先準備發言到此結束。Tim 和我想開放電話會議進入提問。

(Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

（接線員指示）UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

Doug, I don't think I've ever seen a quarter where you grew systems 35% Q-on-Q. So kudos on that. You did talk about the near-term constraints, I guess you can see that from payables. I think payables were up like $1.3 billion. So can you just give us a sense?

Doug，我想我從沒看過你們有一個季度系統業務能季對季成長 35%。所以先恭喜。你確實提到短期限制，我想從應付帳款也看得出來。我記得應付帳款大概增加了 13 億美元左右。所以你能不能給我們一個概念？

Is it fair to say this is costing you like $300 million to $400 million. Is that like a reasonable number to assume that that's costing you in the guidance for December. And do you get that back in March? So do you get back on this sort of 10% plus or minus systems growth in March? Do you actually get that back?

這樣說是否合理：這大概讓你們少了 3 億到 4 億美元？也就是說，在 12 月的指引中，可以合理假設這個限制的成本大概是這個數字？那你們會在 3 月把它補回來嗎？所以 3 月你們會回到這種系統成長率約 10% 上下的軌道嗎？你們真的能把它補回來嗎？

Yes, Tim, that's a good question. I'm not going to put a specific number on it. In the script, I said it would have been a little bit higher. So it would have been a little bit higher. And yes, Tim, to the extent that it's something we would have shipped in December because of timing, we will ship that in the March quarter.

是的，Tim，這是個好問題。我不會給出一個具體數字。在講稿裡我說過，如果不是因為這些因素，指引本來會略高一些。所以確實會略高一些。而且是的，Tim，只要那是因為時點因素導致我們原本會在 12 月出貨的部分，我們就會在 3 月季度出貨。

Okay, Doug. And then can you just talk about -- there was a call hosted by a big memory company today, and they were talking about 4 F-squared. And they were saying that they're going to prioritize 3D DRAM rather than 4 F-squared and your stock traded down, which was a little bit odd to me. It seems that people don't really understand what your position is there. So Tim, I wonder if maybe you can talk about that.

好的，Doug。那你能不能談一下——今天有一家大型記憶體公司主持了一場電話會議，他們在談 4F-squared。他們說相較於 4F-squared，他們會優先推動 3D DRAM，而你們的股價下跌了，這讓我覺得有點奇怪。看起來大家並不太理解你們在那方面的定位。所以 Tim，我想也許你可以談談這件事。

Can you talk about how you do for -- in like a 3D world versus like a 4 F-squared world? And sort of what you're seeing in terms of your customers' DRAM roadmaps?

你能談談在類似 3D 架構的世界，相較於類似 4F 平方（4F-squared）架構時，你們是如何因應的嗎？以及就你們客戶的 DRAM 技術路線圖而言，你們觀察到哪些趨勢？

Sure. Obviously, we don't know exactly what the reaction was or why people would have reacted in that way because we've said for a long time that as all device architectures go 3D, etch and deposition intensity rises. Now, I would say that in some ways, interestingly, the longer it takes to get there, the more we're seeing momentum for some of our other scaling activities.

當然。很明顯地，我們並不確切知道市場的反應是什麼、或為什麼大家會那樣反應，因為我們長期以來一直在說，當所有元件架構走向 3D 時，蝕刻與沉積的強度會上升。現在我會說，有趣的是，在某些方面，越是花更久時間才走到那一步，我們越看到我們其他一些微縮（scaling）活動的動能在增強。

And so we focused on this -- even in this call, advanced patterning. If you want to extend the current architecture in which devices are getting -- patterns are getting even smaller. That's why we're starting to see this uptick in tools like Aether, Akara, conductor etch.. The processes that are needed to etch and create those smaller structures.

因此我們把重點放在這一點——甚至在這通電話裡也談到——先進圖案化（advanced patterning）。如果你想延伸目前的架構，也就是元件——圖案變得更小。這也是為什麼我們開始看到像 Aether、Akara、conductor etch 等工具的需求上升……也就是蝕刻並形成那些更小結構所需要的製程。

So I would say in the short term, etch and dep intensity are rising, and if really, we're making a leap break from 6 F-squared into 3D DRAM, then etch and dep intensity is going to rise even faster even sooner than we would have thought, and that's a great thing.

所以我會說，短期內蝕刻與沉積強度正在上升；而如果我們真的要從 6F 平方（6F-squared）跨越式轉進 3D DRAM，那麼蝕刻與沉積強度將會比我們原先想像的更快、也更早上升，這是件很棒的事。

Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank.

Melissa Weathers，德意志銀行。

I wanted to also ask on the supply constraints. I think you said you're working with your supply chain to make sure some of those bottlenecks get resolved. Can you just give a little more color on what actions you're taking? Could you consider any co-investments or help on the capital side with those guys? Just what needs to happen to relax those constraints?

我也想問一下供應受限的問題。我想你提到你們正與供應鏈合作，確保一些瓶頸能被解決。你能否再多提供一些細節，說明你們正在採取哪些行動？你們是否會考慮共同投資，或在資本面上提供一些協助給那些供應商？要讓這些限制緩解，需要發生哪些事情？

Listen Melissa. Yes, I mean we're always working with our supply chain to make sure they're ready for the demand environment that we see. But given how strong things have been, we're seeing a little bit of tightness. I'm not going to get into specifically where it is, except I would tell you that we're managing it, just like we always do. We'll continue to do that, but it just got a little bit tight in the quarter.

Melissa，你聽我說。是的，我們一直都在與供應鏈合作，確保他們能為我們所看到的需求環境做好準備。但鑑於目前需求非常強勁，我們確實看到了一點點吃緊。我不會具體說明是哪一塊，只能告訴你，我們正在管理它，就像我們一貫的做法一樣。我們會持續這麼做，只是這一季稍微緊了一些。

I have every expectation we'll effectively manage this as well as anybody in the industry will. And yes, if we needed to make some level of investments, we'd be open to that. But frankly, a lot of our suppliers are well-capitalized and can manage on their own from a financial standpoint.

我完全預期我們能有效地管理這件事，表現不會輸給產業內任何公司。而且是的，如果我們需要做某種程度的投資，我們也願意考慮。但坦白說，我們許多供應商資本相當充足，從財務角度他們可以自行應對。

Tim, would you add anything?

Tim，你要補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that's correct. To me for those of us who were around during the COVID shortages, this is nothing like that. We learned a lot of lessons during that period. And in fact, just in the last two months, we've hosted a couple of big events with our global supply -- global suppliers to really lay out what we have in terms of expectations for growth into the next couple of years.

沒有，我認為這說得沒錯。對我而言，對於那些在 COVID 缺貨期間就已在場的人來說，這次完全不是那種情況。我們在那段期間學到了很多教訓。事實上，就在過去兩個月，我們與全球供應鏈——全球供應商——舉辦了幾場大型活動，清楚說明我們對未來幾年成長的預期。

And where you can run into problems is within our own products, as we talked about etch and deposition intensity increasing in certain parts of our business, like we talked about advanced packaging, for instance, really being a major driver of growth for Lam. You can find certain suppliers that are seeing percentage growth of our demand to them rising even much faster than Lam itself is growing.

而你可能會遇到問題的地方，是在我們自身產品之內：正如我們談到的，蝕刻與沉積強度在我們某些業務領域正在提高；例如我們提到先進封裝確實是 Lam 的主要成長驅動因素。你會發現某些供應商，Lam 對他們的需求在百分比上的成長速度，甚至比 Lam 本身的成長還要快得多。

And so yes, I think we have been very clearly communicating that to those suppliers and really asking for transparency to the help they need to keep up with the pace that we're driving in the industry. And I think we'll be caught up very shortly.

因此是的，我認為我們已非常清楚地把這點傳達給那些供應商，並且真正要求他們透明化，告訴我們他們需要哪些協助，才能跟上我們在產業中推動的節奏。我想我們很快就會追上進度。

And then on the NAND spending cycle and that upgrade opportunity that you guys have been talking about, you pulled it in last quarter. And then it's nice to hear about the 384 layer devices that I think are starting to -- you guys are shipping to. So can you update us on where you -- like what inning you think we're at in that NAND upgrade cycle? What trends are you seeing? And yes, maybe any forward-looking comments on the SLC and some of those new opportunities.

另外關於 NAND 的資本支出循環，以及你們一直在談的那個升級機會，你們在上一季把它提前了。而且很高興聽到 384 層的元件，我想你們已開始出貨給——你們正在出貨給相關客戶。所以你能更新一下你們對這波 NAND 升級循環目前進行到哪一局（inning）的看法嗎？你們看到哪些趨勢？以及，是的，也許對 SLC 和一些新機會做些前瞻性的評論。

Yes. I think in terms -- there's still room to go on the upgrade cycle. And in fact, when you're in a period of high demand actually taking tools offline to do the upgrade, sometimes it's also a scheduling challenge for customers and for us.

是的。我認為就——升級循環而言，仍然還有進一步的空間。而且事實上，當你處於高需求期間，為了升級而讓設備下線，有時對客戶與我們而言也會是排程上的挑戰。

But I'd say that we're working our way through that, and we said that we would be finishing that in 2027. And so -- but we also pointed out that then you just roll to sort of the next upgrade cycle. And so remember, that upgrade was from the 128 layer to kind of into the 200 layer class devices.

但我會說我們正在逐步推進，我們也說過會在 2027 年完成。所以——但我們也指出，之後你就會銜接到下一個升級循環。請記得，那次升級是從 128 層提升到大約 200 層等級的元件。

And as you just mentioned, people are already moving into the 300 and 400 layer devices, we've been engaged on those in R&D for quite some time. But I think the real thing we wanted to point out today is that while we used to just talk about layer counts as the driver for Lam equipment demand and wafer capacity needs.

而如你剛才提到的，人們已經在往 300 層與 400 層元件邁進；我們在研發上參與這些已經有相當長一段時間。但我想我們今天真正想強調的是：過去我們只把層數視為驅動 Lam 設備需求與晶圓產能需求的因素。

Now you're really seeing this separation of storage tiers and each of the devices within NAND starting to be more specialized to different workloads within AI. And that actually, just like it did in DRAM with HBM and the impact on bits that could be manufactured per wafer -- you're starting to see the performance needs of AI start to create a need for higher performance, low-latency devices. And I think we've just had a customer talk in some detail about that opportunity. I think that's going to drive NAND wafer capacity demand and intensity for Lam's equipment.

現在你真的看到儲存分層（storage tiers）的分化，而 NAND 內的各種元件也開始針對 AI 的不同工作負載變得更專用化。而這其實就像 DRAM 中 HBM 的情況一樣——以及它對每片晶圓可製造 bit 數的影響——你開始看到 AI 的效能需求正在催生對更高效能、低延遲元件的需求。我想我們剛剛也有一位客戶就這個機會做了相當詳細的分享。我認為這將推動 NAND 晶圓產能需求，以及 Lam 設備的需求強度（intensity）。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

I had two of them, Doug, or Tim, when I look at your Q4 guide, I understand you're talking about mid $150 billion WFE, but the implied WFE for Q4 is like almost $180 billion or so. I'm just wondering, are there any episodic revenues in Q4? Or is some of the price increases that the semi front-end semi equipment companies are doing impacting Q4 and kind of making the WFE number larger. And then I have a quick follow-up.

我有兩個問題，Doug 或 Tim。當我看你們第四季的指引時，我理解你們談的是約 1,500 億美元中段（mid $150 billion）的 WFE，但第四季隱含的 WFE 看起來接近 1,800 億美元左右。我想問的是，第四季是否有任何一次性（episodic）營收？或者，半導體前段設備公司正在做的某些漲價，是否影響了第四季，讓 WFE 數字看起來更大？然後我還有一個簡短的追問。

Yes, Krish. No, there's nothing unique or one-off or episodic to use your word in the December quarter. It's just consistent with customer demand, frankly. And like I alluded to, it would have been a little bit higher, if not for some of these supply chain constraints, but there's not anything one-off.

是的，Krish。沒有，12 月季度沒有任何特殊、一次性或你所說的「階段性／偶發性」（episodic）的因素。坦白說，這只是與客戶需求一致。而且如我先前提到的，如果不是因為一些供應鏈限制，本來還會再高一點，但沒有任何一次性因素。

Got it. Doug. And then I guess a quick follow-up. I think in your prepared comments, you mentioned China would be significantly lower in December versus September, kind of wondering, can you quantify that? How will the mix look like? Because it seems like September quarter was a surprise on the upside with both multinationals and domestics coming in.

了解。Doug，那我快速追問一下。我想在你們事先準備的發言中，你提到 12 月中國會顯著低於 9 月；想請問你能量化一下嗎？組合（mix）會長什麼樣子？因為看起來 9 月季度在跨國公司與本土客戶兩邊都高於預期，算是上行驚喜。

Yes, Krish, to us it wasn't a surprise. It was exactly as expected. And yes, I mean the domestic customers in China in September were strong, but so were the global multinationals. I expect it in December will be meaningfully down, driven by the domestic customers in China. I expect in the December quarter, the multinationals in China likely continue to be reasonably strong, but the percent of revenue in China will be meaningfully down in the December quarter.

是的，Krish，對我們來說這並不意外。完全如我們預期。而且是的，我的意思是，中國國內客戶在9月表現強勁，但全球跨國企業也同樣強勁。我預期12月會明顯下滑，主要由中國國內客戶所驅動。我預期在12月季度，在中國的跨國企業可能仍會維持相當強勁，但12月季度中國營收占比將會明顯下降。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

Harlan Sur，摩根大通。

On CSBG, 36% growth for nine months of this year, full year outlook greater than 30%, very, very strong. The growth tailwinds, I assume higher spares as customer utilizations are at record levels, higher sales of higher dollar value upgrades for NAND and maybe strength in Reliant, right, as the mature sectors of the markets start to come back.

關於CSBG，今年前九個月成長36%，全年展望超過30%，非常、非常強勁。我假設成長的順風來自於：在客戶稼動率處於歷史高位之際，備品備件（spares）增加；NAND較高單價升級的銷售增加；以及Reliant可能也走強，對吧，因為市場中較成熟的領域開始回溫。

And of course, you have your intelligence services offerings. Can you guys just rank order these growth drivers? And more importantly, on a year-over-year basis, how much higher are CSBG operating margins? I'm just wondering if mix and volume dynamics within CSBG are contributing to the strong overall operating margin profile?

當然，你們也有智慧服務（intelligence services）產品組合。你們能否把這些成長驅動因素按重要性排序？更重要的是，以年對年來看，CSBG的營業利益率提高了多少？我想了解的是，CSBG內部的產品組合與出貨量動態，是否正在推升整體強勁的營業利益率表現？

Yes. I'll let Doug talk about the rank order in terms of financial impact in the short term. But if I were to rank order them in terms of my excitement, clearly, as we've talked about, we see Equipment Intelligence, the cobot driven maintenance, the performance-based service contracts we talked about as really kind of the new part of our CSBG business that's really catching on.

是的。我會讓Doug談談就短期財務影響而言的排序。但如果要我按「我最興奮」的程度來排序，顯然，如同我們談過的，我們看到設備智慧（Equipment Intelligence）、協作機器人（cobot）驅動的維護，以及我們提到的以績效為基礎的服務合約，確實是我們CSBG業務中正在快速被採用的新部分。

And we're in an environment right now where just as there was an earlier question about if people are trying to shrink devices even faster to get more bits or more performance out, that creates an intolerance to variability in the process, whether that's in the process control of the maintenance.

而我們目前所處的環境是，就像先前有人問到，若大家正試圖更快地縮小元件尺寸，以取得更多位元或更高效能，那就會對製程中的變異性變得更不容忍，不論是製程本身，或是維護的製程控制。

And that's exactly where equipment intelligence and cobots come into play. So we're seeing strong pull for that element, and that's something new for our CSBG business -- and so I'm very excited about that becoming a bigger growth driver for us than it has been in the past. And I'll let Doug talk about upgrade spares and everything else.

而這正是設備智慧與協作機器人發揮作用的地方。因此我們看到這一塊需求拉動很強，這對我們的CSBG業務來說是新的——所以我對它成為比過去更大的成長驅動因素感到非常興奮。我也會讓Doug談談升級備件以及其他部分。

Yes, Harlan, we don't specifically give you hard numbers on each of the individual subcomponents. What I would tell you relative to strength of each of them, though, given how strong utilization in the industry spares and service are just coming along as you would expect. I've always said spares is the biggest individual component, and that continues to be true. But I'm not going to be specific on the other ones.

是的，Harlan，我們不會就各個子項目提供明確的硬數字。不過就各項強度而言，我會說，鑑於產業稼動率如此之高，備品與服務的表現正如你所預期地一路跟上。我一直說備品是最大的單一組成部分，而這點仍然成立。但其他項目我就不會具體說明了。

What you alluded to is right, given where we are in the NAND conversion/upgrade cycle, that portion of the business continues to be strong.

你提到的沒錯，考量我們目前所處的NAND轉換／升級週期，那一部分業務仍然強勁。

And yes, Reliant did quite nicely last quarter, given the strength of investment in mature node spending. And I expect you'll see all of these trends continue into next year.

而且是的，Reliant在上一季表現相當不錯，反映成熟製程節點投資的強勁。我預期你會看到所有這些趨勢延續到明年。

Yes. I appreciate that. And then as a follow-up, the supply tightness in leading-edge foundry, logic is creating tightness in mature and specialty nodes, analog power, microcontrollers. Foundry supply here is tightening very rapidly, right? Looks like mature foundry suppliers, internal IDM factories, they kind of all increasing capacity -- you just said that this is reflected in your Reliant business. But if I exclude China, are you anticipating this segment of your customer base to grow this year?

是的，謝謝。接著追問一下，先進製程晶圓代工與邏輯的供應吃緊，正在造成成熟與特殊節點（specialty nodes）也變得緊張，例如類比電源、微控制器。晶圓代工供應正在非常快速地收緊，對吧？看起來成熟製程的代工供應商、內部IDM工廠都在提高產能——你剛剛也說這反映在你們的Reliant業務上。但如果排除中國，你是否預期今年這一客群會成長？

Probably not in a meaningful way this year, Harlan. I do expect as we get into next year that mature spending outside of China will be strong because of the dynamics you were just referring to. I'm not sure that it's really sticking out quite yet in 2026.

今年大概不會有顯著成長，Harlan。我確實預期進入明年後，中國以外的成熟製程支出會因你剛提到的那些動態而走強。我不確定在2026年它是否已經非常明顯地凸顯出來。

Srini Pajjuri, RBC Capital Markets.

Srini Pajjuri，RBC資本市場。

Tim, I'm looking at your systems business growth. I think last year, you were up 40%. And then this year, you're probably going to grow 45%, both well about the WFE growth. So looking out to next year, given your $200 billion plus outlook, roughly 30%, let's say, I suspect you expect to outgrow that market next year as well.

Tim，我在看你們系統業務的成長。我想去年你們成長了40%。而今年你們可能會成長45%，兩者都明顯高於WFE的成長。所以展望明年，考量你們對2000億美元以上市場的展望，大約30%（先這麼說），我猜測你們也預期明年會持續跑贏該市場。

Can you talk about what are the drivers? Is it driven by any particular end market like NAND or DRAM or any product line or anything else you can comment on would be helpful.

你能談談驅動因素是什麼嗎？是由特定終端市場（例如NAND或DRAM）所帶動，還是某條產品線，或任何你能評論的其他因素，都會很有幫助。

Yes. I guess I would -- at a very general level, I would say it's driven by the increase in deposition and etch intensity across all devices. And if there were a few things I'd point out just as maybe obvious trends in the market. Lam's exposure in the advanced packaging space is extremely high.

是的。我想——在非常概括的層面，我會說這是由所有元件在沉積與蝕刻強度（deposition and etch intensity）提升所驅動。如果要指出幾個可能很明顯的市場趨勢：Lam在先進封裝領域的曝險（exposure）非常高。

And I think advanced packaging continues to play an even more vital role in just about every device that's feeding into AI today. And so that's, I think, a great position where we will see outperformance. We talked even about that extending into the panel level. But it really is in every device. I mean you see NAND layers growing, you see new architectures coming to NAND.

而我認為先進封裝在幾乎所有目前支撐AI的元件中，都持續扮演更關鍵的角色。因此我認為這是我們將看到超額表現的一個很好的位置。我們甚至談到這會延伸到面板級（panel level）。但它確實存在於每一種元件之中。我的意思是，你看到NAND層數增加，你也看到新的架構導入NAND。

You see -- we talked a little bit about the emergence of SLC Class NAND, you're starting to hear from our customers. Foundry/logic, we've talked about success and gate all around.

你也看到——我們稍早談到SLC等級NAND（SLC Class NAND）的興起，你開始從我們的客戶那裡聽到相關訊息。在晶圓代工／邏輯方面，我們談過success and gate all around。

We invested four or five years ago in an entire set of products focused on improving our position in foundry, logic, and DRAM. And I commented on the fact that that today, those products are driving a significant portion of our growth here in the years in which foundry, logic and DRAM are leading the charge on growth. And so we're extremely happy with that.

我們在四、五年前投資了一整套產品，聚焦於改善我們在晶圓代工、邏輯與DRAM的地位。我也提到，到了今天，這些產品在晶圓代工、邏輯與DRAM領軍成長的年份，正驅動我們相當大一部分的成長。因此我們對此非常滿意。

NAND is yet to emerge as to its full potential from our perspective, and I think you're starting to hear about it and the strategic role that can play in AI. And so I don't know, it's hard to project exactly. We'd love to see all the devices grow, but I think the single greatest theme is regardless of which device we're talking about deposition that will play a greater role in 2027.

從我們的角度來看，NAND尚未完全展現其全部潛力，而我認為你也開始聽到它以及它在AI中可扮演的策略角色。所以我不知道，這很難精確預測。

And if you think about -- we had this model, which was the $100 billion of AI CapEx being about $10 billion in WFE, but the important thing is that $10 billion next year, Lam's opportunity in that $10 billion would be even greater than it is this year because of the device evolution. And so I think that's intensity is just the way to think about Lam's opportunity.

如果你回想——我們有一個模型：1000億美元的AI資本支出（AI CapEx）大約對應100億美元的WFE，但重點是，明年那100億美元中，Lam的機會將會比今年更大，因為元件演進所致。因此我認為，用「強度」來思考Lam的機會是最好的方式。

Right. And then maybe on the gross margins, Doug, you're guiding actually a slight increase despite -- you highlighted some customer mix headwinds. I'm suspecting that's related to China. So I guess, on a normalized basis, as we look out to the next few quarters, once China normalizes, how should we think about gross margins? I mean, in the past, you did talk about some pricing actions. And of course, you have the cost and efficiency improvements as well. So just curious as to how we should think about gross margins as we go into next year.

了解。接著可能談一下毛利率，Doug，你們的指引其實是小幅上升，儘管——你提到一些客戶組合的不利因素。我猜那與中國有關。所以我想問，在常態化的基礎上，展望未來幾季，一旦中國回歸常態，我們應該如何看待毛利率？我的意思是，過去你確實談到一些定價措施。當然，你們也有成本與效率改善。所以想請教，我們在進入明年時應該如何看待毛利率？

Yes. Listen, in the near term, Srini, I think you're going to be plus or minus the level that we're at. We did suggest over the next several years, we see an opportunity to expand gross margin in the mid-50s. So kind of triangulate yourself between these 2 points. But in the near term, it will bounce around generally where it is.

是的。聽著，Srini，短期內我認為你大概會在我們目前這個水準上下浮動。我們確實提到過，在未來幾年，我們看到把毛利率擴張到 50% 中段的機會。所以你可以大致在這兩個點之間做個推估。但短期內，它會在目前水準附近上下波動。

And yes, the things that contributed to our very strong gross margin as well as our expectation of how we're going to drive improvement into the future, our new product introductions, right? We've got some very nice technically differentiated new products like Akara and Aether. We're excited about where that's all going to trend from a profitability standpoint.

是的，促成我們毛利率非常強勁、以及我們預期未來如何推動改善的因素之一，就是我們的新產品導入，對吧？我們有一些技術差異化非常明顯的新產品，例如 Akara 和 Aether。從獲利能力的角度來看，我們對這些趨勢的走向感到很興奮。

We've talked about our close to customer strategy relative to how we're manufacturing closer to where the fabs are and that's contributed and still have a little bit of juice left to squeeze there.

我們也談過「貼近客戶」策略，也就是在更靠近晶圓廠（fabs）的地方進行製造，這已經帶來貢獻，而且那裡仍然還有一點空間可以再榨出更多效益。

And then we've also talked about the fact that we're working on pricing. All of those things have contributed to getting us the all-time record level that we printed in the September quarter and levers we're going to keep trying to pull as we go into the future to get to that mid-50s that we've said we are going to drive towards.

另外我們也談到，我們正在做定價方面的工作。所有這些因素共同促成了我們在 9 月季度創下並公布的歷史新高水準；而這些也都是我們未來會持續拉動的槓桿，讓我們朝著先前所說的 50% 中段毛利率目標前進。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券（Bank of America Securities）。

For the first one, if I look at last year, you were able to kind of consistently expand your WFE expectations, I think you started the year at mid-$130 billion. Now it's like mid-$150 billion. So I'm curious what helped you increase WFE expectations, right, last year? And then what are the constraints next year that you think can be resolved to help do better than the 30% or so industry growth.

第一個問題，如果我看去年，你們能夠相當持續地上調你們對 WFE 的預期；我記得你們年初大概是 1,300 億美元中段。現在看起來是 1,500 億美元中段。所以我想了解，去年是什麼幫助你們提高 WFE 預期的？另外，你們認為明年有哪些限制因素可以被解決，從而讓表現優於產業大約 30% 的成長？

I know you mentioned some constraints in the near term. I'm curious if they are the same constraints that limit industry growth for next year or they are different. Just what can help you do better than this 30% industry WFE growth?

我知道你提到短期有一些限制。我想了解，這些限制是否就是限制明年產業成長的同一批因素，還是不同？到底是什麼能幫助你們優於這個 30% 的產業 WFE 成長？

Yes, Vivek, I'll start, and then I'll let Tim add. As we've walked through this year, you're absolutely right. We started mid-$130 billion, and then we went to a little bit more than mid-$140 billion and then a little more than $150 billion and then we just took it to mid-$150 billion. Basically, what we saw happening across all aspects of our customer base is everybody squeezed a little more out of the clean rooms that they had and/or pulled projects in a little bit quicker than maybe they originally intended. That's generally what happened.

是的，Vivek，我先回答，然後再讓 Tim 補充。我們一路走過今年，你說得完全沒錯。我們從 1,300 億美元中段開始，接著到略高於 1,400 億美元中段，再到略高於 1,500 億美元，然後我們剛把它調到 1,500 億美元中段。基本上，我們看到在客戶群的各個面向，大家都從既有的無塵室（clean rooms）裡再多擠出一些產能，並且／或者把一些專案的時程拉得比原先預期更快一些。大致上就是這樣發生的。

And frankly, we did exactly the same thing. And with the more than 200 number, we're giving you our initial starting point more than 200. We normally don't give you this much specificity this early in the year, and we'll give you a sharper pencil on that when we get to the earnings call next quarter.

坦白說，我們自己也做了完全一樣的事。至於「2000 億美元以上」這個數字，我們給你的是初始起點：2000 億美元以上。通常我們不會在一年這麼早的時候就給這麼具體的資訊；等到下個季度的法說會時，我們會用更精確的估算來更新。

Got it. And for my follow-up, Doug, you mentioned something about an accelerated repurchase plan. I think you can all guess what that is due to, but would help to hear from you also and if you could help give some sense of what the magnitude is, how long you plan to continue it. I know you mentioned you have $3 billion left in the buyback. But just how much is the ASR component, how long it continues?

了解。我的追問是，Doug，你提到加速回購計畫（accelerated repurchase plan）。我想大家都能猜到原因是什麼，但也希望聽你說明一下；另外如果可以，也請你提供一些規模上的概念，以及你們打算持續多久。我知道你提到你們還剩下 30 億美元的回購額度。但 ASR 的部分到底占多少、會持續多久？

Yes. I mean, the way these accelerated share repurchase structures work is you enter into them, you get some shares upfront, and then they execute over time depending on where the share price is and volatility and things like that. I'm not going to disclose actually the start or end date because there's ranges around it. I don't like people to know what we do and how we do it, except I will reinforce for you. It's going to continue to execute in December.

是的。這類加速庫藏股回購（ASR）的結構運作方式是：你簽訂合約後，會先拿到一部分股票，然後交易會隨時間執行，取決於股價位置、波動度等因素。我不會揭露實際的開始或結束日期，因為它會有一個區間範圍。我不希望外界知道我們做什麼、以及怎麼做；但我可以再強調一次：它會在 12 月持續執行。

And then we will likely be doing other things in the market relative to the buyback, right? Our medium long-term goals remain unchanged, which is to return 85% of free cash flow to shareholders.

然後我們也很可能會在市場上就回購採取其他動作，對吧？我們的中長期目標維持不變，也就是把自由現金流的 85% 回饋給股東。

Atif Malik, Citi.

Atif Malik，花旗（Citi）。

The first one for Tim. Tim, I thought your panel-level packaging comments are extremely bullish you're talking about a share that will exceed the wafer-level packaging. Can you just kind of double click in terms of the industry ramp on panel level packaging and your products. Are the parts the same as wafer level like Sabre that will drive this growth?

第一個問題給 Tim。Tim，我覺得你對面板級封裝（panel-level packaging）的評論非常偏多，你提到它的市占會超過晶圓級封裝（wafer-level packaging）。你能否更深入說明一下產業在面板級封裝的爬坡，以及你們的產品？這些零組件是否和晶圓級（例如 Sabre）相同，會帶動這個成長？

Yes. I mean at a fundamental level, they're similar. I mean, I think part of our optimism in this space is, one, it makes sense. I mean, obviously, we talked on the last -- I think, on the last earnings call about how packages themselves are getting larger, which, in many cases, is -- they're too big for wafer-level packaging.

是的，從根本層面來看，它們是相似的。我認為我們對這個領域樂觀的原因之一是：第一，它合乎邏輯。顯然，我們在上一次——我想是在上一次法說會——談到封裝本身正在變得更大，而在很多情況下，它們——已經大到不適合用晶圓級封裝。

And so panels make sense as you try to assemble bigger and bigger system-level solutions. So we saw that quite a while ago, and we've been investing in panel for several years. And I would say we're still going in the very, very early stages. I mean it's -- wafer level packaging is the predominant method -- but as we talked about the shipments to more than 20 customers, you can think of those as really the planting the seeds for an industry that I think is going to ultimately assume a fair bit of the packaging work for the industry.

因此，當你要組裝越來越大的系統級解決方案時，採用面板就很合理。我們很早就看到了這一點，也已經在面板領域投資了好幾年。我會說我們仍然處於非常、非常早期的階段。也就是說——晶圓級封裝仍是主流方法——但如同我們提到出貨給超過 20 家客戶，你可以把這視為在為一個產業播種；我認為它最終會承接產業中相當一部分的封裝工作。

The processes that we talked about, we don't call it Sabre in this case, I mean, but there's a plating aspect of this and some other processes that I think we'll do extremely well in within panel level.

至於我們談到的製程，在這個情境下我們不稱它為 Sabre；但其中有電鍍（plating）相關的環節，以及其他一些製程，我認為我們在面板級封裝裡會做得非常好。

Great. And then Doug, on the $200 billion plus basis type equipment outlook for next year, your rank order is DRAM, foundry/logic, and NAND, which is the same as 90 days ago. But has the gap between DRAM and foundry/logic expectations narrowed given some of the announcements on the new logic fabs from a foundry and Terafab like?

很好。接著 Doug，關於明年 2000 億美元以上的基礎型設備（basis type equipment）展望，你的排序是 DRAM、晶圓代工/邏輯（foundry/logic）、以及 NAND，這和 90 天前一樣。但鑑於一些晶圓代工與類似 Terafab 的新邏輯晶圓廠公告，DRAM 與晶圓代工/邏輯之間的預期差距是否縮小了？

No, Atif, they really haven't. And as you might expect, all of these projects perhaps that people are now publicly hearing about, we knew about in advance of that. So it really hasn't changed much.

沒有，Atif，真的沒有。而且如你所料，這些現在大家在公開場合聽到的專案，我們在它們公開之前就已經知道了。所以整體並沒有太大改變。

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

Jim Schneider，高盛（Goldman Sachs）。

I was wondering as you look into 2027, can you maybe frame for us some of the moving pieces that could adjust the WFE outlook higher or lower? How much of it really is your customers' individual spending plans for the different technology or product areas versus just the general availability of clean room space overall?

我想請教，當你們展望到 2027 年時，能否幫我們梳理一下有哪些變動因素可能讓 WFE 展望上修或下修？其中有多少其實取決於你們客戶在不同技術或產品領域的個別資本支出計畫，而不是取決於整體無塵室空間的可用性？

Yes, Jim, I'll start, and then I'll let Tim add. When we're looking at next year, we see 10 new Tier 1 fabs coming online between the beginning of the year and the end of the year and they will layer in over time. So obviously, that's a contributor. This year has been primarily clean room constrained. And then again, you see, like we said, some emerging supply chain constraints that we're confident we're going to be able to work through effectively, but the whole industry is going to have to work through very similar things.

是的，Jim，我先回答，然後再讓 Tim 補充。我們看明年時，看到在年初到年底之間會有 10 座新的 Tier 1 晶圓廠上線，而且會隨時間逐步貢獻。所以很明顯，這是一個推動因素。今年主要受限於無塵室產能。然後同樣地，如我們所說，你也會看到一些正在浮現的供應鏈限制；我們有信心能有效克服，但整個產業也必須面對並處理非常類似的問題。

And so all this at the end of the day has to get balanced. Every equipment company needs to be able to supply things. clean rooms need to come on schedule. People need to hire and train to make sure they're already -- the industry is good at doing this, and we're great at doing it.

因此，歸根結底，這一切都必須取得平衡。每一家設備公司都必須具備供應能力。無塵室必須按期到位。人員必須招募並訓練，以確保他們已經就緒——這個產業很擅長做到這點，而我們也非常擅長。

But all of those things have to come into play when you're thinking about what the next year is going to look like.

但當你在思考明年會是什麼樣子時，所有這些因素都必須納入考量。

Yes. And I think in my prepared remarks, I talked about the fact that we have visibility through 2028. That's really from the demand side. And so I think that where we're saying it might just be a little bit early to give such a precise number on WFE is simply because we think by the January call, which is the normal time we would give that level of detail.

是的。而且我想在我事先準備的發言中，我提到我們對 2028 年之前都有能見度。那主要是從需求端來看。因此，我認為我們之所以說現在要給出 WFE 的精確數字可能還稍早一些，純粹是因為我們認為到 1 月那通電話會議時——那通常是我們提供那種細節層級的時間點。

We'll have a better view of clean room schedules of supply chain constraints and really be able to hone in on that. But it's -- those are the things we're looking at. And just as this year, we were able to work through those. And I think as we get closer, we get a better sense for how the industry is responding.

我們會對無塵室時程、供應鏈限制有更好的掌握，並且真的能把數字收斂得更精準。但——這些就是我們正在看的事情。而且就像今年一樣，我們能夠把這些問題逐一克服。我想隨著時間更接近，我們也會更清楚產業是如何回應的。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

Stacy Rasgon，Bernstein Research。

For the first one, like I understand that this more than $200 billion WFE next year is a constrained number -- do you guys have a point of view on what that number would be if it was not constrained, if clean rooms were available. Supply chain was not as tight as it is. Where do you think -- I guess what I imagine where do you think the demand for WFEs in 2027 versus the supply number that you've given?

第一個問題，我理解你們說明年超過 2,000 億美元的 WFE 是一個受限的數字——你們是否對「如果不受限」的數字有看法？也就是如果無塵室可用、供應鏈沒有現在這麼緊的話。供應鏈不會像現在這麼吃緊。你們認為——我想像的是，你們怎麼看 2027 年 WFE 的需求，相對於你們給出的供應端數字？

Listen, Stacy, you always ask these interesting questions -- you know we're not going to add. But I love the questions, nonetheless. Listen, things are going to continue to be constrained, we think, in the next year by the things that we have described. I'm not going to put a number on what the unconstrained demand would be. It probably -- it would be higher, but I'm not going to give you a precise number. And like I said, we'll fine-tune what we think the number is and give you a little more specificity on the next quarter call also.

聽著，Stacy，你總是問這些很有意思的問題——你知道我們不會再加碼回答。不過我還是很喜歡這些問題。聽著，我們認為明年仍會受到我們所描述的那些因素所限制。我不會去替不受限的需求給一個數字。它大概——會更高，但我不會給你一個精確數字。而且就像我說的，我們會把我們認為的數字再做微調，並在下一季的電話會議上也提供更具體一些的說法。

Okay. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I focus on the NAND upgrades relative to the services. It sounded like upgrades were strong. I don't know if that meant that they grew sequence or not.

好的，這很有幫助。我的追問是，我聚焦在 NAND 的升級（upgrades）相對於服務（services）。聽起來升級很強。我不確定那是否表示它們是季比成長。

I assume they did because the NAND revenues grew a bunch, but the CSBG revenues were kind of flattish, and I thought the upgrades were in CSBG. So if that's the case, I guess what I'm asking is, did upgrades drive the NAND growth? And if they did, what else was going on in CSBG to absorb the growth such that the overall was flat.

我猜應該是，因為 NAND 營收成長了不少，但 CSBG 的營收看起來相對持平，而我原本以為升級是算在 CSBG 裡。所以如果是這樣，我想問的是：升級是否推動了 NAND 的成長？如果是，那 CSBG 這邊還發生了什麼，吸收了這些成長，使得整體看起來仍是持平？

Yes. Listen, it's Stacy. Upgrades are a part of NAND, also CSBG, but NAND also, when you go through these conversions, you need to buy new equipment also. So obviously, there was a contribution in demand spending from new equipment also.

是的。聽著，這是 Stacy。升級是 NAND 的一部分，也屬於 CSBG，但 NAND 這邊在做這些轉換（conversions）時，你也需要購買新的設備。所以很明顯地，新設備也對需求支出有所貢獻。

Was it bigger than the upgrade piece -- it sounds like it was.

它比升級那一塊更大嗎——聽起來是的。

Both were meaningful contributors.

兩者都是重要的貢獻來源。

Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

Blayne Curtis，Jefferies。

I actually want to ask on the NAND side. You mentioned SLC. That could be a big transition. Is that something you're seeing from customers? Or is that still a potential transition?

我其實想問 NAND 這邊。你提到了 SLC。那可能會是一個很大的轉變。這是你們從客戶那邊看到正在發生的事嗎？還是仍然只是潛在的轉變？

I think it's something that you're starting to hear from customers talked about. I mean, fundamentally, this idea of customizing memory and storage hierarchy to the different workloads, I think, is now pretty well understood. And so I think that this is emerging as one of the potential solutions for low latency NAND access.

我認為你開始聽到客戶在談這件事了。我的意思是，從根本上來說，針對不同工作負載去客製化記憶體與儲存階層（hierarchy）這個概念，我想現在已經相當被理解。因此，我認為這正逐漸成為低延遲 NAND 存取的一種潛在解決方案。

And so I think if you go look just in the last recent days and weeks, there's been discussion of SLC plan, NAND emerging as part of that stack. A little bit longer. I mean for a little bit longer time, there's been discussion also things like high bandwidth flash and the role it can play.

因此，我想如果你去看最近幾天到幾週的資訊，已經有人在討論 SLC 規劃，NAND 正作為那個堆疊（stack）的一部分浮現。再稍微拉長一點。我的意思是，再更早一段時間，也有人在討論像是高頻寬快閃記憶體（high bandwidth flash）以及它能扮演的角色。

And so we're really starting to see NAND move from sort of a singular application. We've always thought of two now one in which perhaps the device performances themselves will need to be customized. And that will have implications for us, but it will also -- from a process perspective, but really, what we were highlighting here was the impact it would have on wafer capacity needs and therefore, perhaps an uptick in NAND equipment demand.

因此，我們真的開始看到 NAND 從某種單一應用，我們一直以來的看法是，現在正走向另一種情境：也許裝置本身的效能需要被客製化。這會對我們產生影響——從製程角度來看；但我們在這裡強調的其實是它對晶圓產能需求的影響，因此也許會帶來 NAND 設備需求的上升。

And then I want to ask on advanced packaging. I think you said last time it would grow over 70% for the calendar year. I was curious what the update is. And then when you look at it's probably the smaller end, so you didn't mention it, but in terms of that $200 billion outlook, like any thoughts on advanced packaging growth next year?

接著我想問先進封裝（advanced packaging）。我記得你上次說日曆年度會成長超過 70%。我想知道最新的更新是什麼。另外，當你看那個 2,000 億美元的展望時，先進封裝可能是比較小的一塊，所以你沒有特別提，但對於明年先進封裝的成長，你們有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Blayne, 70% for this year is still the right number, and I would be stunned if advanced packaging didn't grow nicely next year.

是的，Blayne，今年 70% 仍然是正確的數字，而且如果明年先進封裝沒有漂亮地成長，我會非常驚訝。

Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.

Shane Brett，Morgan Stanley。

So my first question is on foundry/logic. At your 2025 Investor Day, you talked about your foundry/logic SAM per wafer increasing 2x. Just how far are we towards that 2x with the shift from 3-nanometer, 2-nanometer or if I rephrase that, how high did our SAM grow from 3-nanometer to 2-nanometer? And do you think your share gains would accelerate with the transition to 1.4.

我的第一個問題是關於晶圓代工／邏輯（foundry/logic）。在你們 2025 年投資人日，你們談到你們在晶圓代工／邏輯每片晶圓的 SAM 會提升 2 倍。隨著從 3 奈米轉向 2 奈米，我們距離那個 2 倍目標走到哪裡了？或者換個問法，從 3 奈米到 2 奈米，我們的 SAM 成長了多少？以及你是否認為，隨著轉向 1.4，你們的市占提升會加速？

Yes. That was a -- that 2x was a multi-generational shift. And so it's a little bit hard to put exactly where we are in that, maybe halfway through, if I thought about that roadmap that we gave there. But really, it's -- as we've moved forward, though, we've seen just new emerging applications. I talked about a couple of them today.

是的。那個 2 倍——那是一個跨多世代的轉變。因此要精確說我們現在在其中的哪個位置有點難；如果以我們當時給出的那張路線圖來看，也許走到一半左右。但實際上，隨著我們往前推進，我們也看到新的應用正在浮現。我今天也談到了其中幾個。

Clearly, advanced patterning itself is becoming ever more critical. We talked about the growth in Aether. We talked about the use of Akara for conductor etch. Backside power really starting to get a lot more attention being a very etch and deposition intensive application. We just see a number of elements of that improvement. And then I commented about how excited I was about advanced packaging. Advanced packaging is playing a huge role within foundry/logic and our exposure to the WFE there. And so I just think foundry/logic is turning into a good story.

很明顯地，先進圖形化（advanced patterning）本身正變得愈來愈關鍵。我們談到了 Aether 的成長。我們談到了使用 Akara 進行導體蝕刻（conductor etch）。背面供電（backside power）開始受到更多關注，這是一個非常依賴蝕刻與沉積的應用。我們看到那項改善包含許多要素。然後我也評論了我對先進封裝有多麼興奮。先進封裝在晶圓代工／邏輯中扮演非常重要的角色，也提升了我們在那裡對 WFE 的曝險。因此我認為晶圓代工／邏輯正逐漸成為一個很好的故事。

The thing we've highlighted over the last couple of calls, though, just to remind you, is the role we play in gate all around our strength in ALD in our strength in surface treatment. Those are areas where I think even at the Investor Day, we might not have realized just how strong the uptake would be for things like the Argos surface treatment tool. So I feel like the story just kind of keeps getting better and better, the more complex the devices get across all three device types, foundry/logic, DRAM, and NAND.

不過，提醒各位，我們在過去幾次電話會議中強調的一點，是我們在閘極（gate）相關領域所扮演的角色，這完全建立在我們在 ALD 以及表面處理方面的強勁實力之上。這些領域我認為即使在投資人日（Investor Day）時，我們可能也沒有意識到像 Argos 表面處理設備這類產品的採用動能會有多強。所以我覺得，隨著三大裝置類型——晶圓代工/邏輯、DRAM 與 NAND——的元件愈來愈複雜，整個故事只會愈來愈好。

Got it. And for my follow-up, it will be on advanced packaging. So at SEMICON West, one of your colleagues had a great presentation on breaking the integration wall and advanced packaging for the AI era with one of the highlights being key challenges to hybrid bonding adoption at scale. Just how does Lam enable hybrid bonding and is more hybrid bonding better or worse for our advanced packaging share?

了解。那我接著的追問會聚焦在先進封裝。在 SEMICON West 上，你們的一位同事做了一場很精彩的簡報，主題是為 AI 時代打破整合之牆與先進封裝，其中一個重點是混合鍵合（hybrid bonding）在大規模導入時的關鍵挑戰。Lam 具體如何促成混合鍵合？而混合鍵合越多，對我們在先進封裝的市占是更好還是更不利？

Well, I think that the -- we participate in the elements of the process that help enable hybrid bonding. And so obviously, as a deposition and etch company, we don't do the bonding ourselves, but we talked about a number of films, whether it's in the dielectric space or in the metal space that ultimately play an important role in achieving successful hybrid bonding.

我想是這樣——我們參與的是那些有助於促成混合鍵合的製程環節。因此，顯然作為一家沉積與蝕刻公司，我們不會自己去做鍵合，但我們談到過多種薄膜，無論是在介電材料領域或金屬材料領域，最終都在達成成功的混合鍵合上扮演重要角色。

And so there is an opportunity for Lam through that transition. But I think that overall, look, the reality is success in advanced packaging, whatever version it is, will lead to greater adoption of advanced packaging. And ultimately, given our very high share position, that's a good thing for us. Hybrid bonding, you know it's a very etch and deposition-intensive process compared to other parts of the semiconductor manufacturing process itself.

因此，Lam 在這個轉換過程中是有機會的。但整體而言，現實是：不論是哪一種版本的先進封裝，只要成功，就會帶動先進封裝更廣泛的採用。而最終，鑑於我們非常高的市占地位，這對我們是好事。混合鍵合你知道，相較於半導體製造流程中的其他環節，它是一個非常「蝕刻與沉積密集」的製程。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

Vijay Rakesh，Mizuho。

Sorry about that. So Tim and Doug gave some interesting comments on the NAND side. You mentioned every 1% move to SLC drives about -- requires about 2% increase in wafer capacity. So as you look at next year, with the move to SLC and potentially some HBF, any thoughts on how you think what percent of the market moves to SLC?Is it like 5%? Or how would you see that?

抱歉剛剛那樣。所以 Tim 和 Doug 在 NAND 方面給了一些有意思的評論。你提到每往 SLC 移動 1%，大約會帶動——或需要——約 2% 的晶圓產能增加。所以你看明年，隨著往 SLC 的轉移以及可能有一些 HBF，你對於市場有多少比例會轉向 SLC 有什麼想法嗎？會像 5% 嗎？或者你會怎麼看？

I think it's too early for us to make any comment on that. And it would be probably something our customers could -- should actually be commenting on. But what you can rest assured is that the -- in that sense, the intensity of Lam equipment in manufacturing those devices and those wafers would go up.

我認為現在我們還太早，無法對此做任何評論。而且這可能應該由我們的客戶來——也確實應該由他們來——做評論。但你可以放心的是——從這個角度來看，Lam 設備在製造那些元件與晶圓時的設備密度（intensity）會提高。

Got it. And then a quick follow-up. On the advanced packaging side, you mentioned, obviously, you have -- there's a whole CoWoS and EMIB-T coming. I guess, Lam has huge opportunities on the metallization pre-clean, TSV, et cetera. Just wondering if there's a way to size that opportunity as you have done before for every 100,000 wafers of EMIB-T or CoWoS. Like how would you size that opportunity for Lam?

了解。那再快速追問一下。在先進封裝方面，你提到，顯然你們有——接下來會有整個 CoWoS 和 EMIB-T 的導入。我想 Lam 在金屬化前清洗（metallization pre-clean）、TSV 等方面有很大的機會。想請教是否有方法可以量化這個機會，就像你們以前做過的那樣：例如每 100,000 片 EMIB-T 或 CoWoS 晶圓對應的機會。你會如何為 Lam 量化這個機會？

Yes. I think maybe we'll take that as an action for work just being done. Maybe sizing we're not prepared to do that today.

是的。我想也許我們會把這當作後續要做的工作項目。至於量化，我們今天可能還沒有準備好。

Operator, we're going to take one more question.

接線生，我們再接最後一個問題。

Brian Chin, Stifel.

Brian Chin，Stifel。

A few quick questions here. Maybe, Doug, firstly, days of inventory kind of running a little bit over maybe a quarter at the moment, clearly has drawn down. You said the turns have been really strong. Ideally, where would you want that to be?

這裡有幾個快速問題。Doug，先問第一個：目前庫存天數看起來大概略高於一個季度，但顯然已經在下降。你說周轉（turns）表現非常強。理想狀態下，你希望它落在什麼水準？

Yes. Listen, we're super comfortable where it is right now. As the company scales up, you do get some level of efficiency offsetting that, though, right now, we are trying to build inventory in anticipation of the growing demand we see into the next year. But I think we collectively feel pretty good about where we're at 3.4 times.

是的。聽著，我們對目前的水準非常放心。隨著公司規模擴大，確實會有一定程度的效率提升來抵消這些影響；不過眼下，我們正嘗試建立庫存，以因應我們看到明年需求成長的趨勢。但我想我們整體都對目前約 3.4 倍的水準感覺相當不錯。

Okay. Great. Maybe just the last question here. Is the $1 billion increase in your dry resist revenue outlook reflective more of adding logic and DRAM customers in terms of the adoption of that platform? Or is it more towards existing customers pulling forward introduction of the timing of dry resist.

好，太好了。那最後一個問題。你們對乾式光阻（dry resist）營收展望上調 10 億美元，這比較反映的是：在該平台的採用上新增了邏輯與 DRAM 客戶？還是更多是既有客戶把乾式光阻導入的時程提前了？

I think it's a little bit of both. I mean there have been some additional customer adoptions, but really, it is -- as you really become POR for something like we mentioned, HBM manufacturing and the volumes are growing there. The number of tools and therefore, the business just continues to expand. And so we feel like we're positioned in production for some of the fast-growing parts of the market, and that's why we were able to take the number up.

我想兩者都有一些。也就是說，確實有一些新增客戶採用，但更重要的是——當你真正成為我們提到的那種項目的 POR（製程紀錄/首選製程），例如 HBM 製造，而且那邊的量在成長時，設備數量也會增加，因此業務就會持續擴大。所以我們覺得自己已經在市場中一些成長最快的部分取得量產定位（positioned in production），這也是為什麼我們能把這個數字上調。

Thanks, Brian. Listen, thanks, everybody, for joining the call today. we're really excited about where the business is performing. We're really excited about what things look like into the next year. And I think we're probably the most excited about a third consecutive year of outperformance and an expectation that we're going to continue to drive those things into the next calendar year. So I know we'll see a lot of you guys in NDRs and conferences in the coming quarter, and we look forward to seeing you.

謝謝你，Brian。各位，感謝今天加入電話會議。我們對業務目前的表現感到非常振奮。我們也對明年的展望感到非常期待。而我想我們最興奮的，可能是連續第三年表現超越預期，並且預期我們會在下一個曆年持續推動這些成果。所以我知道接下來一季我們會在 NDR 與各種會議上見到很多各位，我們也期待與各位見面。

Thanks for joining the call.

感謝加入本次電話會議。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛斷電話線，祝您有美好的一天。