KKR & Co Inc (KKR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to KKR's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 KKR 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the call over to Craig Larson, Partner and Head of Investor Relations for KKR. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給 KKR 合夥人兼投資者關係主管 Craig Larson。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. This morning, as usual, I'm joined by Rob Lewin, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Nuttall, our Co-Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上，像往常一樣，我們的財務長 Rob Lewin 也加入了我的行列。和我們的聯合執行長 Scott Nuttall。

We would like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release, which is available on the Investor Center section at kkr.com. And as a reminder, we report our segment numbers on an adjusted share basis. This call will contain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for cautionary factors about these statements.

我們想提醒大家，我們將在電話會議中提及非 GAAP 衡量標準，這些衡量標準與我們新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，該新聞稿可在 kkr.com 的投資者中心部分獲取。提醒一下，我們在調整後的份額基礎上報告我們的部門數據。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，不保證未來的事件或績效。請參閱我們的收益發布和向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解有關這些聲明的警示因素。

We know many of you joined us for our 2024 Investor Day just 3 weeks ago. Thank you for spending the day with us. And for those of you who were unable to participate or are newer to KKR, we would encourage you to watch a replay of the webcast or review the Investor Day presentation and transcripts that are on the Investor Relations section of our website. There is a wealth of information, of course, across all of those materials.

我們知道，就在三週前，你們中的許多人剛剛參加了我們的 2024 年投資者日。感謝您與我們一起度過這一天。對於那些無法參加或剛接觸 KKR 的人，我們鼓勵您觀看網路廣播的重播或查看我們網站投資者關係部分上的投資者日簡報和文字記錄。當然，所有這些材料都包含大量資訊。

And as a reminder, before getting to the numbers themselves, starting with this quarter, our financial reporting reflects the previously announced segment and financial metric changes. Of particular note, first, we closed on the remaining interest in Global Atlantic on January 2, and we now own 100% of GA. Second, we're now reporting a new segment, Strategic Holdings. Third, we've introduced a new financial metric, total operating earnings, which consists of fee-related earnings plus insurance segment and Strategic Holdings operating earnings.

提醒一下，在了解數字之前，從本季度開始，我們的財務報告反映了先前宣布的細分市場和財務指標的變化。特別值得注意的是，首先，我們在 1 月 2 日關閉了 Global Atlantic 的剩餘權益，現在我們擁有 GA 100% 的股份。其次，我們現在報告一個新的部門：戰略控股。第三，我們引入了一個新的財務指標，即總營業收入，其中包括與費用相關的收入加上保險部門和策略控股的營業收入。

Total operating earnings represents the more recurring and stable portion of our earnings and is a measure we look at to evaluate our performance as it reflects how our business model and how our financial profile has evolved. Our expectation is that total operating earnings should approximate 70% of pretax earnings over time. And finally, our Q1 financials reflect our revised compensation ratios, which deliver more FRE to our shareholders and drive even more alignment between our compensation model and the outcomes of our clients. And as a reminder, for additional details, we posted recash financials in late March.

總營業收入代表了我們收入中經常性和穩定的部分，是我們評估績效的一項指標，因為它反映了我們的業務模式和財務狀況的演變。我們的預期是，隨著時間的推移，總營業收益應接近稅前收益的 70%。最後，我們第一季的財務數據反映了我們修改後的薪酬比率，這為我們的股東帶來了更多的 FRE，並推動我們的薪酬模式與客戶的結果之間更加一致。提醒一下，為了了解更多詳細信息，我們在 3 月底發布了現金返還財務數據。

So now turning to Q1 and our headline financial metrics. Fee-related earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.75, that's up 22% compared to Q1 '23. Total operating earnings were $1.08 per share in the quarter. And adjusted net income per share, which is after tax, was $0.97, and that's up 20% year-over-year.

現在轉向第一季和我們的整體財務指標。該季度與費用相關的每股收益為 0.75 美元，比 23 年第一季增長 22%。該季度總營業利潤為每股 1.08 美元。調整後每股淨利（稅後）為 0.97 美元，年增 20%。

Looking at our financials in a little further detail. Management fees in Q1 were $815 million. That's up 4% sequentially from last quarter. Net transaction and monitoring fees were $152 million, $116 million of which were generated from our Capital Markets business. Our fee-related compensation ratio was 17.5%, which is right at the midpoint of our target range.

更詳細地看看我們的財務狀況。第一季的管理費為 8.15 億美元。較上季連續成長 4%。淨交易和監控費用為 1.52 億美元，其中 1.16 億美元來自我們的資本市場業務。我們的費用相關薪酬率為 17.5%，正好處於我們目標範圍的中點。

Other operating expenses were $145 million. You're seeing a continued focus on expense management. This number is down 4% compared to Q1 of 2023. But we expect this line item to increase modestly over the balance of the year, driven by continued investments in operations across KKR, alongside an increase in placement fees, given our active fundraising pipeline.

其他營運費用為 1.45 億美元。您會看到人們持續關注費用管理。與 2023 年第一季相比，這一數字下降了 4%。

So in total for the quarter, fee-related earnings were $669 million or the $0.75 per share I mentioned a moment ago. And our FRE margin came in at 68%. That margin figure is up 700 basis points compared to Q1 '23, and that's driven both by the change in our compensation framework as well as the strong expense management in the quarter.

因此，本季與費用相關的收益總計為 6.69 億美元，也就是我剛才提到的每股 0.75 美元。我們的 FRE 利潤率為 68%。與 23 年第一季相比，該利潤率上升了 700 個基點，這是由我們的薪酬框架變化以及本季度強有力的費用管理推動的。

Insurance operating earnings were $273 million. There are really 2 things to point out here. First, portfolio yields this quarter reflect elevated cash and more liquid assets at GA, and that's largely due to 2 sizable recent transactions with the MetLife and Manulife blocks closing in Q4 '23 and Q1 '24, respectively. So the full cost of those liabilities come on to the GA balance sheet at close, but it does take some time to redeploy those assets into our target portfolios. And that delay or that ramp is expected, of course, and is built into our pricing for each of these deals.

保險營業收入為 2.73 億美元。這裡確實有兩件事需要指出。首先，本季的投資組合收益率反映了GA 現金和流動性資產增加的情況，這主要是由於最近與MetLife 和Manulife 區塊進行的兩筆大規模交易分別於23 年第4 季和24 年第1 季度完成。因此，這些負債的全部成本在結束時都會計入 GA 資產負債表，但將這些資產重新部署到我們的目標投資組合中確實需要一些時間。當然，這種延遲或增加是預料之中的，並且已納入我們每筆交易的定價中。

And secondly, we're seeing attractive investment opportunities in asset classes like core plus real estate and infrastructure, as our origination capabilities are presenting GA with attractive risk-adjusted return opportunities. However, while these opportunities come with attractive long-term ROEs, near-term yields tend to be more modest.

其次，我們在核心+房地產和基礎設施等資產類別中看到了有吸引力的投資機會，因為我們的發起能力為 GA 提供了有吸引力的風險調整回報機會。然而，雖然這些機會帶來了有吸引力的長期股本回報率，但短期收益率往往較為溫和。

And moving to our new segment, Strategic Holdings. In Page 18 of the earnings release. Remember, the segment today consists of our direct interests in our core private equity portfolio, which is a long-duration investment strategy with an expected hold period of 10 to 15-plus years. So 19 businesses that are well diversified and generally have durable, defensive financial profiles alongside growing earnings.

並轉向我們的新部門，戰略控股。在收益發布的第 18 頁。請記住，今天的部分包括我們對核心私募股權投資組合的直接權益，這是一項長期投資策略，預計持有期為 10 至 15 年以上。因此，19 家企業多元化程度很高，通常擁有持久、防禦性的財務狀況以及不斷增長的收益。

And looking at KKR's share of these businesses, 2023 revenues were approximately $3.6 billion, with EBITDA of $900-some-odd million. And given the maturing of the portfolio as well as the stability of operating performance, we anticipate these investments to be more regular dividend payers over time.

從 KKR 在這些業務中的份額來看，2023 年收入約為 36 億美元，EBITDA 為超過 900 萬美元。鑑於投資組合的成熟以及經營績效的穩定性，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這些投資將成為更定期的股息支付者。

So operating earnings in the quarter were $21 million, driven by dividend activity. As we stated previously, we expect Strategic Holdings' operating earnings to be more modest in 2024. However, we expect that will change in a pretty significant way looking beyond '24, with operating earnings of $300-plus million by 2026, $600-plus million by 2028 and $1-plus billion by 2030. Our visibility and the opportunities we see here are highly differentiated looking across our space. So putting all of that together, total operating earnings were $1.08 per share.

因此，在股息活動的推動下，本季營業利潤為 2,100 萬美元。正如我們之前所說，我們預計戰略控股公司2024 年的營業利潤將更加溫和。億美元以上，600 美元以上到 2028 年將達到 10 億美元，到 2030 年將超過 10 億美元。因此，將所有這些加在一起，總營業利潤為每股 1.08 美元。

Moving to investing earnings. Realized performance income was $272 million and realized investment income was $135 million. This was primarily driven by secondary sales, strategic exits, and realized carry from the core private equity portfolio. So altogether, adjusted net income totaled $864 million or $0.97 per share.

轉向投資收益。實現績效收入2.72億美元，實現投資收入1.35億美元。這主要是由二次銷售、策略性退出和核心私募股權投資組合的實現利差所推動的。因此，調整後淨利潤總計 8.64 億美元，即每股 0.97 美元。

Turning to investment performance. You can see this on Page 10 of the earnings release. The private equity portfolio was up 5% in the quarter and up 19% in the last 12 months. Opportunistic real estate was up 1% in the quarter as well as up 1% in the LTM. The infrastructure portfolio was up 5% in the quarter and is up 16% over the trailing 12 months. In credit in Q1, delevered at composite was up 3% and alternative credit composite was up 4%. And over the last 12 months, performance was plus 14% and plus 13%, respectively.

轉向投資表現。您可以在收益發布的第 10 頁上看到這一點。私募股權投資組合本季成長 5%，過去 12 個月成長 19%。機會型房地產本季上漲 1%，LTM 上漲 1%。基礎設施投資組合在本季成長了 5%，在過去 12 個月中成長了 16%。第一季信貸方面，去槓桿化綜合指數上漲了 3%，另類信貸綜合指數上漲了 4%。在過去 12 個月中，業績分別成長了 14% 和 13%。

And given performance in Q1, our gross unrealized carry interest balance increased to $6.9 billion at 3/31. That's up 16% from the end of 2023 and over 50% from Q1 of '23. And finally, consistent with historical practice and as we announced last quarter, we increased our dividend to $0.70 per share on an annualized basis or $0.175 per share per quarter, beginning with Q1. This is now the fifth consecutive year we've increased our dividend since we changed our corporate structure, increasing our annualized dividend from $0.50 per share to $0.70 over this period of time.

鑑於第一季的表現，我們的未實現總利息餘額於 3 月 31 日增至 69 億美元。比 2023 年底成長 16%，比 23 年第一季成長超過 50%。最後，與歷史慣例一致，正如我們上季度宣布的那樣，從第一季開始，我們將年化股息提高至每股 0.70 美元，或每季每股 0.175 美元。這是自我們改變公司結構以來我們連續第五年增加股息，在此期間將年化股息從每股 0.50 美元增加到 0.70 美元。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Rob.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給羅布。

Thanks a lot, Craig, and thank you all for joining our call this morning, and for the many of you that spent time with us at our Investor Day a few weeks back. I thought I would start this morning by going through some of our key operating metrics.

非常感謝克雷格，感謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議，也感謝你們中的許多人在幾週前的投資者日與我們共度時光。我想今天早上我應該先檢查一下我們的一些關鍵營運指標。

During the quarter, we raised $31 billion of capital. That's almost $90 billion over the last 12 months. In just this quarter alone, we had attractive outcomes across each of our businesses. Our private equity and real asset businesses together raised $9 billion of capital across a number of strategies. And that's before any meaningful closes from our upcoming flagship raises. And our momentum in credit has really continued, with new capital raise totaling $21 billion, with most of the capital coming from our direct lending, asset-based finance and leveraged credit strategies.

本季度，我們籌集了 310 億美元的資金。過去 12 個月的收入接近 900 億美元。光是本季度，我們的各項業務就取得了令人矚目的成果。我們的私募股權和實體資產業務透過多項策略總共籌集了 90 億美元的資金。這是在我們即將到來的旗艦加薪活動結束之前。我們的信貸勢頭確實在持續，新融資總額達 210 億美元，其中大部分資本來自我們的直接貸款、資產融資和槓桿信貸策略。

And looking more specifically at our K Series vehicles, we raised almost $3 billion year-to-date through April 1, primarily in private equity and infrastructure. We also launched a private BDC in the quarter and are starting to see some real inflows here as well.

更具體地看我們的 K 系列車輛，截至 4 月 1 日，我們今年迄今籌集了近 30 億美元，主要用於私募股權和基礎設施。我們還在本季推出了私人 BDC，並開始看到一些真正的資金流入。

Turning to capital invested. We deployed $14 billion in the quarter. Deployment within private markets was largely driven by infrastructure as well as real estate equity. And over half of the capital invested in the quarter came from credit, primarily across asset-based finance and direct lending. We are seeing a significant ramp in credit deployment, reflecting the overall growth of our credit platform.

轉向資本投資。我們本季部署了 140 億美元。私人市場的部署主要是由基礎設施和房地產股權所驅動的。本季超過一半的投資資本來自信貸，主要是基於資產的融資和直接貸款。我們看到信貸部署大幅增加，反映出我們信貸平台的整體成長。

Now looking forward to Q2, we expect there to be a healthy pipeline of new deployment given the activities we are seeing broadly across the firm. And over the course of the year, we do expect deployment to pick up meaningfully.

現在展望第二季度，鑑於我們在公司範圍內廣泛開展的活動，我們預計將有一個健康的新部署管道。在這一年中，我們確實預計部署將顯著增加。

Before wrapping up this morning, I did want to spend a couple of minutes summarizing the key takeaways from our Investor Day a few weeks back. Scott and Joe led off our Investor Day with a very simple message: While we have experienced a lot of growth, it feels like we are just getting started.

在今天早上結束之前，我確實想花幾分鐘總結一下幾週前投資者日的主要內容。史考特和喬以一個非常簡單的訊息開始了我們的投資者日：雖然我們經歷了很大的成長，但感覺我們才剛開始。

In terms of the key takeaways from the day. First, we provided medium-term guidance. Over the next 12 to 18 months, we expect to be raising capital for over 30 strategies, including a number of our flagships. We expect to raise $300-plus billion of capital over the course of 2024 through 2026. In terms of our financial metrics, by 2026, we expect $4.50-plus per share of FRE. Implying a CAGR of approximately 20%, $7-plus of total operating earnings per share and $7 to $8 per share of adjusted net income, implying a CAGR of roughly 30%.

就當天的主要收穫而言。首先，我們提供了中期指導。在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，我們預計將為 30 多個策略籌集資金，其中包括我們的一些旗艦產品。我們預計在 2024 年至 2026 年期間籌集 3000 億美元以上的資本。意味著複合年增長率約為 20%，每股總營業收益超過 7 美元，調整後淨利潤每股 7 至 8 美元，意味著複合年增長率約為 30%。

Second, looking ahead, we feel quite confident in our longer-term trajectory. We expect $15-plus of adjusted net income per share in the next 10 years or less, with approximately 70% of these earnings to be more recurring in nature. Over the next 5 years, we also expect $25-plus billion of cash generation. We anticipate that this cash will get deployed across 4 key areas: core private equity, share buyback, strategic M&A and insurance. Our model really gives us the confidence across all of these avenues of deployment. In each case, we have a strong track record of being able to deploy capital against high ROE opportunities that also generate recurring and growth-oriented earnings per share.

其次，展望未來，我們對長期發展軌跡充滿信心。我們預計未來 10 年或更短的時間內調整後每股淨利將達到 15 美元以上，其中約 70% 的收益本質上是經常性收益。未來 5 年，我們預計將產生超過 250 億美元的現金。我們預計這筆現金將部署在四個關鍵領域：核心私募股權、股票回購、策略併購和保險。我們的模型確實讓我們對所有這些部署途徑充滿信心。在每種情況下，我們都擁有能夠針對高股本回報率機會部署資本的良好記錄，同時產生經常性和增長型每股收益。

And number three, looking at our key themes, we made sure to highlight our diversified and purpose-built business model. Asset Management plus Insurance plus Strategic Holdings, all working synergistically together to generate sustainable and significant P&L outcomes. And we have a lot of confidence in each of our 3 growth engines. In Asset Management, we have multiple paths to surpass $1 trillion of AUM over the next 5 years. In insurance, we have strong conviction that we could double Global Atlantic from here. And finally, strategic holdings, which is really an unconstrained market opportunity for us and where we have a real right to win. We expect to have $1 billion-plus of annual operating earnings by 2030.

第三，著眼於我們的關鍵主題，我們確保強調我們的多元化和專門的商業模式。資產管理加上保險加上策略控股，所有這些都協同工作，以產生可持續和顯著的損益結果。我們對三個成長引擎都充滿信心。在資產管理領域，我們有多種途徑可以在未來 5 年內使資產管理規模超過 1 兆美元。在保險方面，我們堅信我們可以從現在開始將 Global Atlantic 翻倍。最後，戰略控股，這對我們來說確實是一個不受限制的市場機會，我們有真正的獲勝權利。我們預計到 2030 年，年營業收入將超過 10 億美元。

Our business model is built to drive compounding earnings over a very long period of time. And while the opportunity in front of us is a massive one, we do believe that we can achieve our outline targets without having to build anything new. And we have a team and culture, as you would have heard from over 15 of our business leaders on April 10, that both facilitates and accelerates our ability to achieve our strategic ambitions. So when you combine our business model, together with our team and our culture, this is what distinctly differentiates KKR.

我們的商業模式旨在在很長一段時間內推動複合收益。雖然我們面前的機會是巨大的，但我們確實相信我們可以實現我們的綱要目標，而無需建立任何新的東西。正如您在 4 月 10 日從我們超過 15 位業務領導人那裡聽到的那樣，我們擁有一個團隊和文化，這不僅促進並加速了我們實現戰略目標的能力。因此，當您將我們的業務模式與我們的團隊和文化結合時，這就是 KKR 的獨特之處。

And with that, Scott, Craig and I are happy to take any questions.

史考特、克雷格和我很樂意回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

Our question is on investing after Rob's healthy deployment commentary. But we wanted to focus specifically on private equity as I think there's a lot more visibility in direct lending and ABF, where you're seeing strength. But in private equity, we are watching some build in your deployment pipelines. I think Cotiviti is probably the biggest upcoming transaction. And now the CLO markets and syndicated loan markets are back online, but the recent rise in the 10-year probably wasn't that helpful. So can you provide us some comments on the expected investment activity levels in just your private equity business over the coming quarters?

我們的問題是在 Rob 發表健康部署評論後進行投資。但我們想特別關注私募股權，因為我認為直接貸款和 ABF 的可見度要高得多，你可以看到它們的實力。但在私募股權領域，我們正在觀察部署管道中的一些建置。我認為 Cotiviti 可能是即將進行的最大交易。現在 CLO 市場和銀團貸款市場已重新上線，但最近 10 年期的上漲可能並沒有那麼有幫助。那麼，您能否向我們提供一些關於您的私募股權業務未來幾季的預期投資活動水準的評論？

Craig, it's Craig. Thanks for the question. Why don't I start? I'm sure Scott will have a couple of thoughts also. First -- and thanks for beginning in the way that you did. I think as Rob noted in our prepared remarks, the $1.1 billion of deployment you saw this quarter is not representative as we look at our activity. We've got a really healthy backlog of announced transactions. And if anything, it was just a dynamic, where a pretty modest amount of that activity closed in the 90 days ended March 31.

克雷格，是克雷格。謝謝你的提問。我為什麼不開始呢？我相信史考特也會有一些想法。首先，感謝您以這樣的方式開始。我認為，正如 Rob 在我們準備好的發言中指出的那樣，當我們審視我們的活動時，本季 11 億美元的部署並不具有代表性。我們已經公佈的交易積壓非常健康。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是這只是一種動態，在截至 3 月 31 日的 90 天內，相當數量的活動結束了。

I think in terms of where we've been deploying capital, we could start probably with some of the themes we talked about at Investor Day. So we talked about Asia as a region that we expect to drive meaningful opportunity for KKR for years to come. We talked about Japan, specifically. I think it's interesting when you look at Private Equity in our Real Assets business, the largest deployment we had this quarter was out of Japan. In that instance, it was out of our Japanese REIT business as they closed on the acquisition of 30-some-odd logistics warehouses that, again, we had touched on.

我認為就我們在何處部署資本而言，我們可能可以從我們在投資者日討論的一些主題開始。因此，我們談到了亞洲這個地區，我們預計該地區將在未來幾年為 KKR 帶來有意義的機會。我們特別談到了日本。我認為，當你看看我們的實體資產業務中的私募股權時，這很有趣，我們本季最大的部署是在日本之外。在這種情況下，它不在我們的日本 REIT 業務範圍內，因為他們完成了對 30 多個物流倉庫的收購，我們再次談到了這一點。

I think as you also look at some of the activity we have in corporate carve-outs and private equity, we love those opportunities, where our operational resources and focus can really move the needle. So 2 of our larger pending investments, our corporate carve-out transactions, that's one in Europe as well as one in the U.S. Those are, again, both traditional private equity.

我認為，當您也看到我們在企業分拆和私募股權方面的一些活動時，我們喜歡這些機會，我們的營運資源和重點可以真正發揮作用。因此，我們有兩項較大的懸而未決的投資，即我們的企業分拆交易，一項在歐洲，一項在美國。

And then I think the other point just to highlight in terms of broad deployment, we talked about it at Investor Day again, is infrastructure. And that's just an area where we bring deep expertise in the global footprint. Our second largest investment in the quarter was to take private of a U.K.-listed smart metering business. I'm sure some of you will remember that being a theme that we've invested behind and have had success historically.

然後我認為在廣泛部署方面要強調的另一點是基礎設施，我們在投資者日再次討論了這一點。這正是我們在全球足跡中提供深厚專業知識的領域。我們本季的第二大投資是將一家在英國上市的智慧電錶業務私有化。我相信你們中的一些人會記得這是我們投資的一個主題，並且在歷史上取得了成功。

And again, as we look at our pipeline of announced but not yet closed activity, infra continues to be particularly active with themes and digital, renewables, et cetera. And again, activity here is global, well beyond the U.S. I think those -- some of the pending investments we have include companies based in Italy, Germany, Portugal, et cetera. So again, I think main takeaway is a very healthy pipeline, and we're continuing to find opportunities to deploy capital.

再次，當我們審視已宣布但尚未結束的活動管道時，基礎設施繼續在主題和數位、再生能源等方面特別活躍。再說一遍，這裡的活動是全球性的，遠遠超出了美國。再說一次，我認為主要的收穫是一個非常健康的管道，我們正在繼續尋找部署資本的機會。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, Craig, is we do think the M&A market is coming back. I think to your point, the leverage credit markets opened up in January. We are starting to see this impact all of our businesses, to Craig's comments. But I'd say, in particular, private equity pipeline, which is up significantly. There's a lot of activity. What we announced in Q1 is obviously backward looking given it takes some time for these deals to close. The Cotiviti deal that you mentioned actually closes today.

是的。克雷格，我唯一要補充的是，我們確實認為併購市場正在復甦。我認為就你的觀點而言，槓桿信貸市場在一月開放。根據克雷格的評論，我們開始看到這種影響我們所有的業務。但我想說的是，特別是私募股權管道，其數量顯著增加。有很多活動。鑑於這些交易需要一些時間才能完成，我們在第一季宣布的內容顯然是向後看的。您提到的 Cotiviti 交易實際上已於今天完成。

So I think you're going to see more of the announced deals get closed, and you're going to see more deals get announced as this pipeline turns into real deal pipeline and that turns into real deployment. I think you're also going to see this on the monetization side. If the M&A market is picking up and the IPO markets are open, you're going to see us selling more assets as well, refinancing more assets and taking more companies public. So I think you're going to see more activity overall across private equity.

因此，我認為您將看到更多已宣布的交易完成，並且隨著這條管道變成真正的交易管道並變成真正的部署，您將看到更多的交易被宣布。我想你也會在貨幣化方面看到這一點。如果併購市場回溫並且首次公開募股市場開放，您將看到我們也出售更多資產，為更多資產進行再融資，並使更多公司上市。因此，我認為私募股權領域總體上會出現更多活動。

Our next question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I wanted to go back to some of the targets you laid out at the Investor Day and really speaking to the $25 billion of cash flow you expect to generate over the next 5 years. Rob, I know you mentioned several buckets which are not that different. They're fairly consistent with kind of how you allocated capital historically. But I was wondering if you could comment on the mix specifically and sort of your priorities within those 4 buckets that you mentioned earlier. And I guess as part of that, when you think about growth in Strategic Holdings and incremental capital that you'll deploy there, how much of that is likely to be driven to sort of allocation to existing portfolio companies versus new investments?

我想回顧一下您在投資者日制定的一些目標，實際上是指您預計在未來 5 年內產生 250 億美元的現金流。羅布，我知道你提到了幾個並沒有那麼不同的桶子。它們與歷史上分配資本的方式相當一致。但我想知道您是否可以具體評論一下這種組合，並在您之前提到的 4 個類別中對您的優先事項進行排序。我想，作為其中的一部分，當你考慮戰略控股的成長和你將在那裡部署的增量資本時，其中有多少可能會被分配到現有投資組合公司而不是新投資？

Great. And thanks a lot for the question, Alex. So you did mention this, I think the most important thing as it relates to capital allocation is to have a consistent framework, and we've had a really consistent framework for some time with one overriding objective, and that's to use our excess free cash flow to drive durable and recurring and growth-oriented earnings per share and to do so by leveraging our platform at really high ROEs. And I think the only thing that's really changed is, at our Investor Day, we outlined the opportunity to generate $25-plus billion of cash generation over the course of the next 5 years, and it's just a huge opportunity for us.

偉大的。非常感謝你的提問，亞歷克斯。所以你確實提到了這一點，我認為與資本配置相關的最重要的事情是有一個一致的框架，一段時間以來我們已經有了一個真正一致的框架，有一個首要目標，那就是使用我們多餘的自由現金流來推動持久、經常性和以成長為導向的每股盈餘，並透過利用我們的平台以極高的股本回報率來實現這一目標。我認為唯一真正改變的是，在我們的投資者日，我們概述了在未來 5 年內產生超過 250 億美元現金的機會，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

In terms of bucketing across the 4 main areas of deployment, core private equity, share buybacks, insurance and strategic M&A, we don't have a fixed percentage by design. And it's really about being able to allocate that capital base nimbly to the opportunities that drive the highest return and the highest amount of earnings per share over a long period of time. That's our focus that's what we think we're really good at.

就核心私募股權、股票回購、保險和策略併購這四個主要部署領域的劃分而言，我們在設計上沒有固定的百分比。這實際上是為了能夠靈活地將資本基礎分配給能夠在很長一段時間內帶來最高回報和最高每股盈餘的機會。這是我們的重點，也是我們認為自己真正擅長的領域。

As it relates to your question on Strategic Holdings, we outlined a path to $1 billion plus of Strategic Holdings operating earnings by 2030. It's something that we're confident in. We've got real visibility on where that's going to come from. I do think there's the opportunity if we see investments for us to be able to make in Strategic Holdings to drive that number north of that over time as we allocate capital. But again, no fixed percentage in how we're thinking about it. And I think that's a good thing, frankly, because I think it allows us to go after the highest returning and most ROE-friendly and earnings per share friendly opportunities that exist.

由於這與您有關戰略控股的問題有關，我們概述了到 2030 年戰略控股營業收入超過 10 億美元的路徑。我確實認為，如果我們看到我們能夠對戰略控股進行投資，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們分配資本，這個數字就會進一步提高。但同樣，我們的思考方式沒有固定的百分比。坦白說，我認為這是一件好事，因為我認為它使我們能夠追求現有的最高回報、最有利於股本回報率和最有利於每股收益的機會。

Our next question comes from Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bill Katz 和 TD Cowen。

Obviously, a noticeable step-up in your gross sales, generally speaking. And if you just run rate this number, you're already north of your $300 billion number. So not that a few weeks change in the argument. But I was just sort of wondering if you could speak to the sequential change, particularly in the credit portfolio, where you're seeing really good momentum and maybe tie in the insurance opportunity with that. And I'll leave it there.

顯然，一般來說，您的銷售額顯著增加。如果您只是對這個數字進行評級，那麼您已經超出了 3000 億美元的數字。所以爭論並不會在幾週內改變。但我只是想知道您是否可以談論連續的變化，特別是在信貸投資組合中，您看到了非常好的勢頭，並且可能與保險機會聯繫在一起。我會把它留在那裡。

Bill, it's Craig, why don't I start. So I think there are a couple of things here. First probably worth highlighting investor interest in private credit as that continues to feel very good. So I think in direct lending, spreads have come in certainly. But if you look at a new direct lending deal, given where base rates are in 3 months so far, that's still a 10%-plus piece of paper. And in ABF, there's just a number of really positive macro tailwinds, as Chris Sheldon, again, walked through a handful of weeks ago. And within that part, we're active in both ABF -- in investment-grade ABF in addition to opportunistic.

比爾，我是克雷格，我為什麼不開始？所以我認為這裡有幾件事。首先可能值得強調投資者對私人信貸的興趣，因為這仍然感覺非常好。所以我認為在直接貸款中，利差肯定會出現。但如果你看一下新的直接貸款協議，考慮到迄今為止 3 個月內的基本利率，這仍然是一張紙，超過 10%。在 ABF 中，只有一些真正積極的宏觀推動因素，正如 Chris Sheldon 幾週前再次經歷的那樣。在這一部分中，我們活躍於 ABF——投資級 ABF 和機會主義 ABF。

And so private credit for KKR at March 31 was $93 billion of AUM. These are big businesses for us. A year ago, we were at [$76 billion]. So we've seen a 22% increase year-over-year. So I think that's the first part. And then the second part, which ties into your question, is fundraising in our activities. Because you're right, we are seeing growth and fundraising in a number of different ways for us. And it's broad, which is great to see. It's institutional. It's private wealth. It's insurance. It's across multiple forms of capital, traditional funds, SMAs, evergreen vehicles, other perpetual forms of capital. And it's in the U.S. and it's outside the U.S.

因此，截至 3 月 31 日，KKR 的私人信貸資產管理規模為 930 億美元。這些對我們來說都是大生意。一年前，我們的規模為 [760 億美元]。所以我們看到年增了 22%。所以我認為這是第一部分。第二部分與你的問題有關，是我們活動中的募款活動。因為你是對的，我們看到了多種不同方式的成長和籌款。而且它很寬闊，很高興看到。這是製度性的。這是私人財富。這是保險。它涵蓋多種形式的資本、傳統基金、SMA、常青工具和其他永久形式的資本。它在美國境內，也在美國境外。

And I think that breadth of activity is really what you're seeing in our activity this quarter. Direct lending, we raised evergreen capital both in the U.S. and Europe. Opportunistic asset-based finance, capital raised. Asia private credit, we raised capital. Again, this is another area where we're constructive on the opportunity and how we're positioned given the strength of our Asia franchise. And in our K Series suite of products, we just launched our private BDC strategy. So I think you could think of that almost as upside from where we are here. So it does feel like we have a healthy amount of momentum, and it's broad-based across the firm.

我認為活動的廣度確實是您在本季的活動中看到的。透過直接貸款，我們在美國和歐洲籌集了常青資本。機會主義資產融資，籌集資金。亞洲私人信貸，我們籌集了資金。同樣，這是我們對機會以及鑑於我們亞洲特許經營權的實力如何定位的另一個領域。在我們的 K 系列產品套件中，我們剛剛推出了私人 BDC 策略。所以我認為你可以認為這幾乎是我們現在所處的優勢。因此，我們確實擁有強勁的動力，並且在整個公司範圍內都有廣泛的基礎。

Bill, it's Scott. The only thing I'd add is in addition to the organic fundraising that Craig ran through from third parties, we mentioned in the Investor Day the symbiotic relationship between Global Atlantic and our credit business in particular. We're definitely seeing that show up in the numbers as well. And it's also allowing us to see how our third-party insurance AUM as well at the same time. So it really does feed credit, and it has historically.

比爾，這是斯科特。我唯一要補充的是，除了克雷格從第三方進行的有機籌款之外，我們在投資者日提到了 Global Atlantic 與我們的信貸業務之間的共生關係。我們肯定也看到了這一點也出現在數字中。它還使我們能夠同時了解我們的第三方保險資產管理規模。所以它確實促進了信貸，而且從歷史上看也是如此。

What I think you're going to see over time though, and as Craig mentioned this, is that we are going to see GA also starting to do more across asset classes like real estate and infrastructure, especially on the core side. And as we mentioned last November when we announced that we're going to 100% ownership of Global Atlantic, that's one of the opportunities that we saw, we're just getting after that now. So I think you'll see it not only show up in credit, but in some of the real asset lines as well.

我認為隨著時間的推移，正如克雷格所提到的那樣，我們將看到 GA 也開始在房地產和基礎設施等資產類別上做更多的事情，特別是在核心方面。正如我們去年 11 月提到的，當時我們宣布將獲得 Global Atlantic 100% 的所有權，這是我們看到的機會之一，我們現在正在抓住這個機會。所以我認為你會看到它不僅出現在信貸中，而且出現在一些實際資產項目中。

Our next question is from Brian McKenna with Citizens JMP.

我們的下一個問題來自 Citizens JMP 的 Brian McKenna。

So just a 2-parter here on core private equity. So first, is the $20 million in net dividends in the first quarter a good quarterly baseline for the remainder of this year? Or should we expect some growth off of that? And then bigger picture, I'm curious if interest is picking up at all from LPs around the strategy, specifically as the portfolio continues to mature here while dividends are also set to increase notably in the coming years.

所以這裡只是核心私募股權的兩人。首先，第一季 2000 萬美元的淨股息是否是今年剩餘時間的良好季度基準？或者我們應該期待由此帶來的一些成長嗎？然後從更大的角度來看，我很好奇有限合夥人對該策略的興趣是否有所上升，特別是隨著投資組合繼續成熟，而股息也將在未來幾年顯著增加。

Brian, it's Rob. I'll start off. Plus or minus $20 million Strategic Holdings operating earnings, a pretty good level to model for the remainder of the year. As we move forward and get closer to $300-plus million by 2026, I think you'll see a little bit more stability in that line item quarter-to-quarter. Might bump around a little bit in 2024, but plus or minus $20 million is about right.

布萊恩，我是羅布。我就開始吧。戰略控股公司的營業利潤正負 2000 萬美元，對於今年剩餘時間的模型來說是一個相當不錯的水平。隨著我們繼續前進，到 2026 年接近 3 億美元以上，我認為您會看到該訂單項目逐季度更加穩定。 2024 年可能會略有波動，但上下 2000 萬美元左右是合適的。

And as it relates to our core private equity strategy, listen, we are the largest core private equity manager today globally by a good margin. We think we've built because of our investment teams, our geographic reach, our industry gap, our collaborative culture. We've really built a best-in-class franchise, and it's something that I think we certainly be excited about continuing to partner with our clients on over time.

因為它與我們的核心私募股權策略有關，所以聽著，我們是當今全球最大的核心私募股權管理公司，並且遙遙領先。我們認為我們的建立是因為我們的投資團隊、我們的地理範圍、我們的產業差距和我們的協作文化。我們確實建立了一流的特許經營權，我認為我們對於繼續與客戶長期合作當然感到興奮。

Yes. I think to the second question, Brian, we haven't been out actively marketing core private equity. We've got plenty of dry powder in the pools that we manage today. The next thing we'll be talking about with our investors on the PE side is going to be America's private equity. So we'll give you an update as those conversations come in.

是的。我認為對於第二個問題，布萊恩，我們還沒有積極行銷核心私募股權。我們今天管理的水池裡有大量的乾粉。我們將與私募股權投資者討論的下一件事將是美國的私募股權。因此，當這些對話出現時，我們會向您提供最新情況。

Our next question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So you have a lot of growth in a lot of places. You mentioned no need to build anything new, but I'll ask the question anyway. Secondaries is just about the only area where you're not either scaled or well on the way to being scaled. I'm just curious if there is a plan, how important is it to LPs and for you? Or is that just a nice to have over time area?

所以你在很多地方都有很大的成長。你提到不需要建造任何新的東西，但無論如何我都會問這個問題。次要區域幾乎是唯一尚未擴展或正在擴展的區域。我只是好奇是否有一個計劃，它對 LP 和你來說有多重要？或者這只是一個很好的時間區域？

Glenn, it's Rob. I'll start. I think you hit on it in your last remarks there. It is not a need-to-have for us. And so we want to be in businesses where there are large addressable markets, and we've got conviction, we can be a top 3 player. Of course, over time, we've looked at the secondary space. You could assume that most every M&A transaction that's happened in the secondary space, has come across our desk here. And either we determined it wasn't the right partner to be a top 3 player or we determined that we just weren't willing to pay the price that was a prevailing price in the market.

格倫，我是羅布。我開始吧。我認為你在最後的發言中說到了這一點。這對我們來說不是必需品。因此，我們希望進入擁有大型潛在市場的企業，我們堅信，我們可以成為前三名。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們也開始關注次要空間。您可以假設，大多數發生在二級領域的併購交易都經過了我們的辦公桌。要么我們確定它不是成為前三名的合適合作夥伴，要么我們確定我們只是不願意支付市場上普遍的價格。

And so we're perfectly comfortable focusing on the aspects of our business that we're already in today. With that focus, we think we can be uniquely great at the things that we've already started and that provides more than enough running room for growth going forward.

因此，我們非常放心地專注於我們今天已經開展的業務的各個方面。有了這種專注，我們認為我們可以在已經開始的事情上取得獨特的成就，並為未來的成長提供足夠的運作空間。

Our next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

Could you give a little bit more specificity or color on the gross and net flows at GA in 1Q, and within the growth side, the mix of channels? And then more broadly, it looks like all of the bigger PRT or pension risk transfer deals this year have gone to more traditional insurance players. So I want to get your thoughts on to what extent the lawsuits and regulatory focus on that issue are cycling the opportunity for the more alts-backed insurers.

您能否對第一季 GA 的總流量和淨流量以及成長方面的管道組合提供更多具體資訊或顏色？更廣泛地說，今年所有規模較大的 PRT 或退休金風險轉移交易似乎都流向了更傳統的保險公司。因此，我想了解您對這一問題的訴訟和監管關注在多大程度上為更多另類支持的保險公司帶來了機會。

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question, Patrick. So I'd say that if you look at the flows at GA this quarter, probably about 75% from the institutional side of our business, give or take. Again, that's inclusive of the big block transaction that we did in the quarter with Manulife. We've had really good momentum on the individual side of our business as well, with very strong sales both in Q4 of '23 and again in Q1 of 2024.

是的，當然。謝謝你的提問，派崔克。所以我想說，如果你看看本季 GA 的流量，可能有 75% 左右來自我們業務的機構方面，無論給予還是接受。同樣，這包括我們在本季與宏利保險進行的大宗交易。我們的個人業務也取得了非常好的勢頭，23 年第四季和 2024 年第一季的銷售都非常強勁。

And then on the PRT side, pension risk transfer side, we've talked about this as being a medium to long-term opportunity at GA. We really, coming into this year, did not have very much exposure here at all, but we have a team assembled against the opportunity, and we continue to believe that it's a really big opportunity given the capability of our Institutional Reinsurance platform for us to be able to take some share again starting off of a very low base.

然後在 PRT 方面、退休金風險轉移方面，我們已經將其視為 GA 的中長期機會。進入今年，我們確實沒有太多的曝光度，但我們有一個團隊來迎接這個機會，我們仍然相信，鑑於我們的機構再保險平台的能力，這是一個非常大的機會能夠從非常低的基數開始再次佔據一些份額。

Our next question is from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Fannon 和 Jefferies。

I guess just a follow-up on the GA business. It seems like the cash in the block transactions kind of reduced returns a little bit in the quarter. Could you talk about the current operating environment for those returns based upon the business you're seeing today?

我想這只是 GA 業務的後續行動。似乎大宗交易中的現金在本季的回報有所減少。您能否根據您今天看到的業務談談這些回報的當前營運環境？

Sure, Dan, it's Rob. I'll start. So what we're seeing in the GA business is really strong performance, really strong operating performance, and really an even stronger outlook for the future. What happened in Q1 or what transpired from a P&L perspective in Q1, very much by design. When you complete 2 very large block deals north of $20 billion of assets, you're going to take on the cost of those liabilities day one. But we really have a 12- to 18-month period where we've modeled redeployment of the assets into higher-yielding investments. And we're operating at higher levels of cash balance. That was point one.

當然，丹，是羅布。我開始吧。因此，我們在通用航空業務中看到的是非常強勁的業績、非常強勁的營運業績以及更強勁的未來前景。第一季發生的事情或從損益角度來看第一季發生的事情，很大程度上是有意為之。當您完成兩筆資產超過 200 億美元的大型交易時，您將在第一天就承擔這些負債的成本。但我們確實有 12 到 18 個月的時間，我們已經將資產重新部署到收益更高的投資中。我們的現金餘額水準較高。這是第一點。

Point two is a really interesting one, Scott started to touch on it a little bit earlier. We're seeing a really interesting opportunity in core and core plus real estate right now. There is just almost no core and core plus real estate capital out there. And we're able to create really attractive unlevered returns by leaning into that asset class. But one of the downsides of leaning into that asset class is a near-term downside in that the running yields on those investments tend to be in the 4%, 4.5% range. But we think those investments will certainly more than pay off in terms of the longer-term ROEs that they could generate.

第二點非常有趣，斯科特早些時候就開始談到它。我們現在在核心和核心加房地產領域看到了一個非常有趣的機會。那裡幾乎沒有核心和核心加房地產資本。透過投資該資產類別，我們能夠創造真正有吸引力的無槓桿回報。但傾向於該資產類別的缺點之一是近期的缺點，因為這些投資的運作收益率往往在 4% 至 4.5% 的範圍內。但我們認為，就其可能產生的長期股本回報率而言，這些投資肯定會帶來更多回報。

So much like how you'd hear us talking about investing in the near term for benefits of long term across everything we do, that would be a really good example where you could see some dilution to ROEs in the near term, but we think that are more than going to benefit Global Atlantic, its policyholders, ultimately our shareholders, in the long term given the attractive risk-adjusted returns we're seeing there.

就像您聽到我們談論短期投資以獲得我們所做的一切的長期利益一樣，這將是一個非常好的例子，您可能會看到短期內股本回報率有所稀釋，但我們認為鑑於我們在那裡看到的有吸引力的風險調整回報，從長遠來看，這不僅有利於Global Atlantic、其投保人，最終還有我們的股東。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, Dan, is that none of this is a surprise. I mean we closed on $23 billion worth of block transactions. And when we price these deals, we assume there's going to be a ramp period. So that's proceeding as we expected. And I think the business overall is performing incredibly well. Both on the institutional side and the individual parts of GA, we're seeing a significant amount of growth and a significant amount of opportunity.

是的。丹，我唯一要補充的是，這一切都不足為奇。我的意思是我們完成了價值 230 億美元的大宗交易。當我們為這些交易定價時，我們假設將會有一個過渡期。所以一切都按照我們的預期進行。我認為整體業務表現非常好。無論是在機構方面還是在 GA 的各個部分，我們都看到了顯著的成長和大量的機會。

And I think to the crux of your question, so far, the dollars that are getting deployed in the investment portfolio were hitting our target return levels. So it's just a rotation and it will take a little bit of time to get this money to work, but we feel very good about the progress of the trajectory.

我認為你問題的關鍵是，到目前為止，投資組合中部署的美元已經達到了我們的目標回報水平。所以這只是一個輪換，需要一點時間才能讓這筆錢發揮作用，但我們對軌蹟的進展感覺非常好。

Our next question comes from Ben Budish with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的本·布迪什。

Just following up on the topic of GA and some maybe modeling tidbits. So helpful commentary in terms of the time it takes to redeploy some of those assets. Wondering if you could talk a little bit about the pace of growth and the cost of insurance. It looks like quarter-over-quarter, it goes up as kind of the book turns over a little bit. But I guess, how should we think about that just as we forecast longer term?

只是跟進 GA 主題以及一些可能的建模花絮。就重新部署其中一些資產所需的時間而言，這是非常有用的評論。想知道您是否可以談談成長速度和保險成本。它看起來就像是季度環比，隨著書的翻閱一點點，它就會上升。但我想，就像我們預測更長期的情況一樣，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

And then similarly, from a high-level perspective, I think in the past, you've kind of talked about guiding us to think about book value growth and your target mid-teens ROE. Just trying to think about how we should be thinking about that given you're now talking about the opportunity to accelerate longer-term growth? I know it hasn't been that long since you've owned 100% of GA, but just wondering if that's still the right framework or any other considerations. And then that other piece on the cost of insurance side.

同樣，從高層的角度來看，我認為您過去曾談到引導我們思考帳面價值成長和您的目標 ROE。考慮到您現在正在談論加速長期成長的機會，我們應該如何考慮這一點？我知道您擁有 100% 的 GA 並沒有多久，但只是想知道這是否仍然是正確的框架或任何其他考慮因素。然後是保險費用方面的另一部分。

Yes. Great. So starting on the cost of insurance, and I think you really hit on it. As you see the rotation in a higher interest rate environment, our crediting spreads have, of course, gone up so have the yields that we're able to generate on the investment side of the portfolio. So being able to generate that spread continues to really exist in the business. So you'll continue to see, I think, an upward draft on our crediting spreads for a little bit. And then ultimately, it would be a function of where interest rates shake out.

是的。偉大的。所以從保險費用開始，我認為你真的很感興趣。正如您在較高利率環境中看到的輪換一樣，我們的貸方利差當然有所上升，因此我們能夠在投資組合的投資方面產生的收益率也有所上升。因此，能夠產生這種傳播仍然存在於業務中。因此，我認為，您將繼續看到我們的信用利差略有上升。最終，這將取決於利率波動的情況。

In terms of our longer-term ROE numbers, I think the continued right range to be able to forecast Global Atlantic is really in that long term 14% to 15% pretax ROE range. Nothing has changed there. We feel really good about the liabilities that we're able to source in the marketplace. We've talked about our management team really feeling like they are best-in-class at being able to source simple, easy to understand, transparent liabilities at scale. I'll take our investment platforms up against anybody globally and being able to put those liabilities to work.

就我們的長期 ROE 數字而言，我認為能夠預測 Global Atlantic 的持續正確範圍實際上是在 14% 至 15% 的長期稅前 ROE 範圍內。那裡什麼都沒有改變。我們對能夠在市場上獲得的負債感到非常滿意。我們已經談到，我們的管理團隊確實感覺他們在能夠大規模尋找簡單、易於理解、透明的負債方面是一流的。我將利用我們的投資平台與全球任何人競爭，並能夠將這些責任發揮作用。

Our next question is from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So wanted to ask on the credit deployment and maybe just zooming in on the ABF opportunity. The U.S. banks have started to indicate greater appetite or willingness to pursue synthetic risk transfers just in an effort to alleviate some of their capital pressures. It's an area where, historically, they've been much less active than the European banks. And I was hoping you could just speak to the engagement levels with some of your U.S. bank partners, how you see the ABF deployment opportunity unfolding specifically within the SRT market and maybe just more broadly across the ABF landscape.

所以想詢問信貸部署，也許只是放大 ABF 機會。美國銀行已開始表現出更大的興趣或意願來尋求全面風險轉移，以緩解部分資本壓力。從歷史上看，他們在這個領域的活躍程度遠不如歐洲銀行。我希望您能談談與一些美國銀行合作夥伴的參與程度，以及您如何看待 ABF 部署機會，特別是在 SRT 市場中，甚至在整個 ABF 領域中。

Why don't I start first. I think as it relates to SRTs, it is a market we are active in. It fits in our view, very well with our ABS strategy. We're knowledgeable across a host of assets, and we do like to partner with the banks. As you note, I think that activity has mainly been EU-focused. It does feel like we are starting to see more activity in the U.S. It also seems like the potential opportunity set could be expanding. I do think the most common underlying assets for SRTs have been in corporate loans, fund finance facilities, consumer term loans, does feel like banks are beginning to explore opportunities across other asset classes.

我為什麼不先開始。我認為，由於它與 SRT 有關，所以這是我們活躍的市場。我們對許多資產都很了解，並且我們確實喜歡與銀行合作。正如您所指出的，我認為該活動主要以歐盟為重點。確實感覺我們開始在美國看到更多的活動，而且潛在的機會集可能正在擴大。我確實認為 SRT 最常見的基礎資產是公司貸款、基金融資便利性、消費者定期貸款，確實感覺銀行正在開始探索其他資產類別的機會。

And then I think the other point that you touched on, which is very important, is just this big macro tailwind we're seeing in that opportunity that it affords us and our team. Again, you look at the growth in our ABF platform as a whole, we're over $50 billion of AUM at this point in time. That's both opportunistic together with more investment-grade focused ABS strategies. And in terms of total deployment in a quarter like this one, we've overall as a firm have deployed a little over, round numbers, $3.5 billion of ABF activity in Q1, which is a pretty elevated pace for us. So activity does continue to feel like it's at a healthy level.

然後我認為你提到的另一點非常重要，就是我們在它為我們和我們的團隊提供的機會中看到的巨大的宏觀順風。再一次，你看看我們 ABF 平台的整體成長，我們目前的 AUM 已超過 500 億美元。這既是機會主義的，也是更注重投資等級的 ABS 策略。就本季的總部署而言，作為一家公司，我們在第一季度部署了超過 35 億美元的 ABF 活動，這對我們來說是一個相當高的速度。因此，活動確實繼續處於健康水平。

Part of the reason, Steven, that we spent so much time on this part of the business at the Investor Day is we do think this is a really interesting and sizable opportunity. Direct lending is really interesting as well in private credit, but asset-based finance is a much larger market, probably a $5 trillion market on its way to $7 trillion to $8 trillion. And it encompasses a significant number of asset classes, and you really need to have scale to be able to do it well.

史蒂文，我們在投資者日花了這麼多時間在這部分業務上，部分原因是我們確實認為這是一個非常有趣且巨大的機會。直接貸款在私人信貸領域也確實很有趣，但基於資產的融資是一個更大的市場，可能是一個 5 兆美元的市場，正在向 7 兆至 8 兆美元邁進。它包含大量的資產類別，你確實需要有規模才能做好。

And so we talked about our 19 or 20 platforms better part of 7,000 people working at those platforms. I think you're going to see that businesses continue to scale in an attractive pace. And pleasingly, we're also seeing institutional investors understand this part of credit much more than they did a few years ago. So we are seeing this trend spread from Europe to the U.S. on the risk transfer side. I think that just speaks to the fact that deployment opportunity will continue to be robust. And banks are trying to free up capital, whether it's for M&A or to redeploy into other areas that they find interesting. So we've got plenty of opportunity here.

因此，我們談論了我們的 19 或 20 個平台，其中大部分是在這些平台工作的 7,000 名員工。我認為你會看到企業繼續以有吸引力的速度擴張。令人高興的是，我們也看到機構投資者比幾年前更了解這部分信貸。因此，我們看到這種趨勢在風險轉移方面從歐洲蔓延到美國。我認為這只是說明了部署機會將繼續強勁的事實。銀行正在努力釋放資本，無論是用於併購還是重新部署到他們感興趣的其他領域。所以我們這裡有很多機會。

Our next question is from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

So maybe switching gears to the capital markets business. I think you performed a little bit better than you had indicated at the conference, Rob, I think back in March for 1Q. Maybe if you could just talk about, I guess, the near-term trajectory in 2Q and what you're seeing so far. And more broadly, longer term, given the improvement in leverage credit markets and M&A activity and of course, the structural growth in your credit business, including in the asset-based finance area, maybe just your confidence on getting back to, say, an $800 million plus run rate level and even a time line to get to, call it, $1 billion plus annual level provided markets are conducive for that.

所以也許會轉向資本市場業務。我認為你的表現比你在會議上表現的要好一點，羅布，我記得在三月的第一季。我想，也許您可以談談第二季的近期軌跡以及您迄今為止所看到的情況。更廣泛地說，從長遠來看，鑑於槓桿信貸市場和併購活動的改善，當然還有信貸業務的結構性增長，包括基於資產的金融領域，也許只是您有信心回到，比如說， 8 億美元以上的運行率水平，甚至還有達到10 億美元以上年度水準的時間線，只要市場有利於這一點。

Yes. Brian, a few thoughts. When you look back at 2022 and 2023, really tough operating conditions for our Capital Markets business. And for much of that time, Capital Markets on the equity side, on the leverage finance side, were largely shut. And our business generated ballpark $600 million of revenue in each of those 2 years. And so we're really proud of the durability of the franchise that we created. As I look at our pipelines today for the remainder of 2024, we get updated pipelines weekly, our pipelines are a lot better today than they were at this time last year. Now there's a lot to go execute on between now and the end of the year. But the forward indicators for our capital markets business sitting here in early May are definitely better than they were in May of 2023.

是的。布萊恩，有一些想法。回顧 2022 年和 2023 年，我們資本市場業務的營運條件非常艱難。在那段時間的大部分時間裡，股權方面、槓桿融資方面的資本市場基本上處於關閉狀態。我們的業務在這兩年中每年產生約 6 億美元的收入。因此，我們對我們創建的特許經營權的持久性感到非常自豪。當我今天查看 2024 年剩餘時間的管道時，我們每週都會更新管道，今天我們的管道比去年此時要好得多。從現在到年底，還有很多事情需要執行。但 5 月初我們資本市場業務的前瞻性指標肯定比 2023 年 5 月好。

And then more to your question around the longer term. If you look back in 2021, our Capital Markets business generated, a ballpark, $850 million of revenue. And clearly, you had buoyant capital markets that helped in 2021. But if you look at KKR today as a firm, we do more today than we did in 2021. I believe we have greater market share with our third-party clients than we did in 2021. And we've talked about the real opportunity to scale what we're doing in coordination with Global Atlantic. So when you combine all that, we continue to be really optimistic about what we're going to be able to create over the next several years with our Capital Markets franchise that is truly a unique business relative to any of our competitors out there right now.

然後多回答你關於長期的問題。如果你回顧 2021 年，我們的資本市場業務產生了約 8.5 億美元的收入。顯然，活躍的資本市場在2021 年有所幫助。市佔率2021 年。因此，當你將所有這些結合起來時，我們仍然對未來幾年能夠透過我們的資本市場特許經營權創造的東西感到非常樂觀，相對於我們目前的任何競爭對手來說，這確實是一項獨特的業務。

Yes. So Brian, we've been in this business since 2006. And over that period of time, what you see is that the revenue tends to be quite correlated with deployment and monetization, especially in private equity and infrastructure. So if you go back to the prior discussion around the fact that our pipelines have picked up significantly, especially in those areas, and we're seeing more activity on the monetization side as well as the markets open up and strategic buyers come back. I think that bodes well.

是的。 Brian，我們從 2006 年就開始從事這項業務。因此，如果你回到先前的討論，我們的管道已經顯著增加，特別是在這些領域，我們看到貨幣化方面有更多的活動以及市場開放和戰略買家回來。我認為這是個好兆頭。

We had $800 million plus of revenues at KCM at a period of time where we had less dry powder, we had less overall AUM, we had less firm activity. So as the markets open back up, our expectation is we'll do better than that, but it's going to be somewhat dependent on deployment and monetizations across the firm. But it looks pretty good as we sit here today.

在我們的乾粉較少、整體資產管理規模較小、公司活動較少的時期，KCM 的收入超過 8 億美元。因此，隨著市場重新開放，我們的預期是我們會做得更好，但這將在一定程度上取決於整個公司的部署和貨幣化。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，它看起來相當不錯。

Our next question is from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just wanted to ask on ABF. You guys have had a lot of success. Heard the $50 billion ABF AUM figure, 19 platforms, $20 billion originations, I think last year. Just hoping you could talk a little bit more around the steps and actions you guys were taking to drive the originations meaningfully higher. How much of that do you think would be coming from more resources that are adding to the existing platforms versus or do you see a bigger needle mover from adding more platforms over time? And maybe you could talk about your vision around how you see this evolving over the next 5 years?

只是想問ABF。你們取得了很大的成功。我記得去年就聽說過 500 億美元的 ABF 資產管理規模、19 個平台、200 億美元的資金來源。只是希望你們能多談談你們為推動起源有意義地更高而採取的步驟和行動。您認為其中有多少將來自添加到現有平台的更多資源，或者您是否認為隨著時間的推移添加更多平台會帶來更大的推動力？也許您可以談談您對未來 5 年的發展的看法？

So why don't I start, Mike. I think you hit on a lot of the key points. I think that the asset-based finance business for us as a whole has just changed really dramatically post the Global Atlantic acquisition. And this is a business where scale begets scale. And so I think we've seen real advantages of partnering with GA, partnering with additional third-party clients. And then an important part of that have been all the platforms that Scott had mentioned and that Chris Sheldon had run through over the course of our Investor Day.

那我為什麼不開始呢，麥克。我認為你抓住了很多關鍵點。我認為，在收購 Global Atlantic 後，我們整體的以資產為基礎的金融業務發生了巨大的變化。這是一項規模帶來規模的業務。因此，我認為我們已經看到了與 GA 合作以及與其他第三方客戶合作的真正優勢。其中一個重要部分是斯科特提到的所有平台以及克里斯謝爾頓在我們的投資者日期間瀏覽過的所有平台。

And I think specifically, when you look at those 18, 19 platforms, they're global. As Scott mentioned, 7,000 people -- some-odd people, helping us source and originate unique deal flow for the benefit of our clients as we look forward from here. Will we look to grow that universe of platforms? I'm sure the answer to that is yes. Is that a number that's going to be 2x what it is today 2 years from now? I wouldn't want you to think anything along those lines. But I think there's continued opportunity for us to continue to build and drive scale.

我認為，具體來說，當你觀察這 18、19 個平台時，你會發現它們是全球性的。正如斯科特所提到的，7,000 人——有些奇怪的人，幫助我們尋找和發起獨特的交易流程，以造福我們的客戶，正如我們所期望的那樣。我們會尋求擴大平台範圍嗎？我確信答案是肯定的。兩年後這個數字會是現在的兩倍嗎？我不希望你有這樣的想法。但我認為我們仍然有機會繼續擴大規模。

And one of the other important points, again, as Scott mentioned a few minutes ago, it does feel like client knowledge of this opportunity is one that's been increasing dramatically. It felt to us like infrastructure and direct lending in these other asset classes, there was a period of time where it took some real education on the part of our clients, and that education can come in baby steps. And ABF is a unique asset class because it's been around for a long, long time, but it's really not been a distinct asset class as many of our clients have thought about their portfolios. So at the same point in time that our strategic position is one that's increased dramatically and improved dramatically, it just feels like that knowledge level with our clients is coming up the curve at the same time. And I think that's what you're seeing in our results.

正如斯科特幾分鐘前提到的，其他重要的一點之一是，確實感覺到客戶對這一機會的了解正在急劇增加。我們覺得這就像其他資產類別中的基礎設施和直接貸款一樣，有一段時間我們的客戶需要接受一些真正的教育，而且這種教育可以循序漸進。 ABF 是一種獨特的資產類別，因為它已經存在了很長一段時間，但它實際上並不是一個獨特的資產類別，因為我們的許多客戶都在考慮他們的投資組合。因此，在我們的策略地位急劇增加和改善的同一時間點，感覺我們與客戶的知識水平也在同時上升。我認為這就是您在我們的結果中看到的。

Michael, it's Scott. I think we're going to -- we'll add more platforms, probably not as many as we have. We will add resources to the existing platforms. But remember, these businesses are already out in the market sourcing investment opportunity. And so to some extent, the way I think about it is we're capital constrained, not opportunity constrained. So to the extent we continue to scale our capital base here, we can do more with the existing origination platforms we've already set up. And it's less about needing to add a lot of resources as opposed to just taking more advantage of the flow we're already seeing.

邁克爾，這是斯科特。我認為我們將添加更多平台，但可能不會像我們現有的那麼多。我們將在現有平台上增加資源。但請記住，這些企業已經在市場上尋找投資機會。因此，在某種程度上，我的想法是我們受到資本的限制，而不是機會的限制。因此，只要我們繼續擴大我們的資本基礎，我們就可以利用我們已經建立的現有發起平台做更多的事情。這不是需要增加大量資源，而是更多地利用我們已經看到的流程。

And as Craig said, now that private credit has become a better understood part of what we do, as private credit allocations get created, more work is getting done on this part of the space. And so we're seeing allocations to direct lending and ABF as part of that continue to pick up. And we've seen this across other asset classes, there's pattern recognition. As those allocations get created and people look to get to the number that they picked, what we tend to see on the back of that is quite a bit of capital formation. So we feel like we're ready for that.

正如克雷格所說，現在私人信貸已經成為我們工作中更容易理解的一部分，隨著私人信貸分配的創建，這部分領域正在做更多的工作。因此，我們看到直接貸款和 ABF 的分配繼續增加。我們已經在其他資產類別中看到了這一點，即模式識別。隨著這些分配的創建，人們希望達到他們選擇的數字，我們往往會看到大量的資本形成。所以我們覺得我們已經準備好了。

Our next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

Could you give us the updated visible announced but not closed realization revenue number? And then more broadly, I guess we've got some conflicting messages out there about how good the realization environment really is, overall sense that you're still pretty constructive. So maybe just update us on what your -- what's driving your confidence and maybe what you think is -- why your tone is diverging from what we've heard from some other players out there.

您能否提供我們更新後可見的已公佈但未結束的變現收入資料？然後更廣泛地說，我想我們已經收到了一些相互矛盾的訊息，關於實現環境到底有多好，整體感覺你仍然很有建設性。因此，也許請告訴我們您的最新情況——是什麼在驅動您的信心，也許您的想法是什麼——為什麼您的語氣與我們從其他一些玩家那裡聽到的不同。

Great. Thanks for the follow-up, Patrick. So today, we've got north of $400 million of visible pipeline as it relates to monetization, call that roughly 60% carry, 40% investment income. As you noted, our pipelines are pretty healthy. As we look at that $400 million, I should be clear, it's not certain all if that's going to close in Q2. Some of that's got some regulatory approvals as part of that. But as we look at our pipelines, they are better on the monetization side that they've been at any point over the past 12 to 18 months.

偉大的。感謝您的跟進，帕特里克。因此，今天，我們已經獲得了超過 4 億美元的可見管道，因為它與貨幣化有關，大約 60% 為套利收益，40% 為投資收益。正如您所指出的，我們的管道非常健康。當我們看到這 4 億美元時，我應該明確的是，並不確定這是否會在第二季結束。其中一些已經獲得了監管部門的批准。但當我們審視我們的管道時，它們在貨幣化方面比過去 12 至 18 個月的任何時候都更好。

I can't really comment on what others are saying. I could just comment on what we're feeling across the firm. And I'm not sure to be all that much of a surprise. We're seeing the leverage finance market come back. You're starting to see CLO formation sit behind the leveraged finance market. And that all creates additional dry powder in the system for deal activity, which is the fuel to greater monetization. And so we'll see. There's a lot to get done in order to monetize the pipeline. But at least for KKR, we're feeling relatively constructive versus where we had been maybe 12 months ago at this time.

我無法真正評論其他人的言論。我只能評論一下我們整個公司的感受。我不確定是否會感到那麼驚訝。我們看到槓桿金融市場捲土重來。你開始看到 CLO 的形成是槓桿金融市場的背後。所有這些都在系統中為交易活動創造了額外的乾粉，這是更大貨幣化的燃料。我們拭目以待。為了使管道貨幣化，還有很多工作要做。但至少對 KKR 來說，與 12 個月前的此時相比，我們感覺相對具有建設性。

Yes. Patrick, I'd say we -- I don't know why you're hearing a bit of a different tone. Maybe the markets themselves have a little bit of fragility. The geopolitical risk, there's a good amount of angst about the macro, that could be part of it. Our comments are based on kind of the environment continuing like we see it right now. But if something happened, exogenous shocks, then sure, it could change the environment. But it could be that our portfolio is maybe more global than some, maybe a bit more mature across aspects of what we invested in some. But we're seeing it. This isn't a speculation, we can see it and feel it in terms of the live discussions we're having.

是的。派崔克，我想說我們——我不知道為什麼你聽到的語氣有點不同。也許市場本身就有點脆弱。地緣政治風險，人們對宏觀經濟有很大的焦慮，這可能是其中的一部分。我們的評論是基於我們現在所看到的持續的環境。但如果發生了一些事情，例如外源性衝擊，那麼當然，它可能會改變環境。但我們的投資組合可能比某些投資組合更全球化，在某些投資組合的各個方面可能更成熟。但我們正在看到它。這不是猜測，我們可以在現場討論中看到並感受到它。

And only part, Patrick, I'd add on to both of those comments really would relate to that investment performance aspect of this, you look at our gross unrealized carry, that number is up 50% year-over-year. That's a pretty big increase, recognizing both the value creation we've seen, together with the fact that we've been in a more modest realization environment. And I think when you look at some of the underlying statistics, as Scott said, we've got a healthy amount of the portfolio that's pretty seasoned. So roughly 50% of that would be 4 years or greater as we look at the maturity of the private equity portfolio.

派崔克，我想補充的只是一部分，這兩則評論確實與投資績效方面有關，你看看我們的未實現毛利，這個數字年增了 50%。這是一個相當大的成長，認識到我們所看到的價值創造，以及我們一直處於更溫和的實現環境中的事實。我認為，當你查看一些基礎統計數據時，正如斯科特所說，我們擁有大量經驗豐富的投資組合。因此，當我們考慮私募股權投資組合的成熟度時，其中約 50% 的期限為 4 年或更長。

But then you've got to layer in investment performance alongside of that. So almost 30% of that is marked at 2x or greater. And somewhere between 55% and 60% is marked at 1.5x cost and greater. So I think you have this combination of maturing portfolio together with strong investment performance that, as we look forward, gives us confidence and, again, ultimately seeing that flow through to our financials.

但除此之外，你還必須考慮投資績效。因此，其中幾乎 30% 的倍數標記為 2 倍或更高。 55% 到 60% 之間的某個地方被標記為 1.5 倍或更高的成本。因此，我認為成熟的投資組合與強勁的投資績效相結合，正如我們所期望的那樣，這給了我們信心，並最終看到了我們的財務狀況。

We've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Craig Larson for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束了。我現在想將電話轉回克雷格·拉爾森以徵求結束意見。

I would just like to really thank everybody for the time that you've invested in KKR. When we think of the announcements we made in November and at the Investor Day just a few weeks ago, and then together with our Q4 and Q1 earnings, we've been very active in taking a lot of mind share from everyone. So thanks for your investment in understanding KKR better. And please follow up with us directly with any follow-on questions. Thanks so much.

我衷心感謝大家為 KKR 投入的時間。當我們想到 11 月和幾週前的投資者日發布的公告，以及我們第四季度和第一季的收益時，我們一直非常積極地從每個人那裡獲得了很多想法。感謝您為更了解 KKR 所做的投入。如果有任何後續問題，請直接與我們聯絡。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。