KKR & Co Inc (KKR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to KKR's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 KKR 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the call over to Craig Larson, Partner and Head of Investor Relations for KKR.

現在，我想將電話交給 KKR 合夥人兼投資者關係主管 Craig Larson。

Craig, please go ahead.

克雷格，請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

This morning, as usual, I'm joined by Rob Lewin, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Nuttall, our Co-Chief Executive Officer.

今天早上，像往常一樣，我與我們的財務長 Rob Lewin 一起參加了會議；以及我們的聯合執行長 Scott Nuttall。

We would like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release, which is available on the Investor Center section at kkr.com. And as a reminder, we report our segment numbers on an adjusted share basis.

我們想提醒大家，我們將在電話會議上參考非 GAAP 指標，這些指標已與我們新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據相協調，可在 kkr.com 的投資者中心部分查閱。提醒一下，我們根據調整後的份額報告分部資料。

This call will contain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future eventual performance.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，不保證未來的最終表現。

Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for cautionary factors about these statements.

有關這些聲明的警告因素，請參閱我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件。

So beginning with our financial results.

首先從我們的財務結果開始。

We had a really solid end to the year.

我們為這一年畫上了圓滿的句點。

Fee-related earnings per share came in at $0.94. That is up 24% from a year ago and is the second highest quarterly figure in our history, and adjusted net income came in at $1.32 per share.

每股費用相關收益為 0.94 美元。這比一年前成長了 24%，是我們歷史上第二高的季度數字，調整後的淨收入為每股 1.32 美元。

That is up 32% year over year and is also the second highest quarterly figure in our history.

這比去年同期成長了 32%，也是我們歷史上第二高的季度數字。

For the year, FRE per share and ANI per share were $3.66 and $4.70, up 37% and 38%, respectively, compared to 2023 and both are record annual figures for us.

今年，每股 FRE 和每股 ANI 分別為 3.66 美元和 4.70 美元，與 2023 年相比分別成長 37% 和 38%，這兩項都是我們創紀錄的年度數據。

So very healthy growth during a period of time where it is felt to us as the market conditions have just begun to improve.

在我們感覺到市場狀況剛開始改善的時期內，實現了非常健康的成長。

Walking through our quarterly results in a little more detail.

更詳細地介紹我們的季度業績。

Management fees in Q4 came in at $906 million.

第四季的管理費用為 9.06 億美元。

That's up 15% year over year, driven by the breadth of our fundraising activities alongside of a pickup in deployment.

這一數字比去年同期增長了 15%，這得益於我們籌款活動的廣度以及部署的增加。

Total transaction and monitoring fees were $324 million in the quarter.

本季交易和監控費用總額為 3.24 億美元。

Capital Markets transaction fees, in particular, ended the year on a strong note with $270 million in revenue, driven primarily by deployment activity within private equity as well as infrastructure.

尤其是資本市場交易費用，以 2.7 億美元的收入強勁收官，這主要得益於私募股權和基礎設施內的部署活動。

Fee-related performance revenues were $25 million in the quarter.

本季與費用相關的績效收入為 2500 萬美元。

And so in aggregate, fee-related revenues were $1.3 billion, and that's up 17% year over year.

整體而言，費用相關收入為 13 億美元，年增 17%。

Turning to expenses.

談到費用。

As usual, fee-related compensation was right at the midpoint of our guided range at 17.5% of fee-related revenues for the quarter as well as for the year.

與往常一樣，費用相關的薪酬正好處於我們指導範圍的中間點，佔本季和全年費用相關收入的 17.5%。

Other operating expenses were $192 million in Q4.

第四季其他營運費用為 1.92 億美元。

So in total, fee-related earnings were $843 million or $0.94 per share, as I mentioned a minute ago, with an FRE margin of 67%.

因此，總的來說，費用相關收益為 8.43 億美元，即每股 0.94 美元，正如我剛才提到的，FRE 利潤率為 67%。

Insurance operating earnings were $250 million and Strategic Holdings operating earnings were $8 million.

保險營業收入為 2.5 億美元，策略控股營業收入為 800 萬美元。

Both of these figures came in right in line with the levels we discussed on our call last quarter.

這兩個數字與我們上個季度電話會議上討論的水平一致。

Total operating earnings.

總營業利潤。

As a reminder, comprised of our fee-related earnings, Insurance, and Strategic Holdings operating earnings were $1.23 per share, so total operating earnings for KKR, again, these are the more durable and recurring components of our earnings, comprised almost 80% of total segment earnings for the year.

提醒一下，由我們的費用相關收益、保險和策略控股營業收益組成的收益為每股 1.23 美元，因此 KKR 的總營業收益，這些是我們收益中更持久和經常性的組成部分，佔全年總分部收益的近 80%。

Moving to investing earnings within our Asset Management segment, realized performance income was $676 million and realized investment income was $110 million for total monetization activity of $786 million.

轉向資產管理部門的投資收益，實現的績效收入為 6.76 億美元，實現的投資收入為 1.1 億美元，總貨幣化活動為 7.86 億美元。

That's up almost 50% year over year.

與去年同期相比，成長了近 50%。

This activity was driven by a combination of secondary sales and strategic transactions, dividends, and interest income as well as the annual performance fee for Marshall Wace.

這項活動是由二級銷售和策略交易、股息和利息收入以及 Marshall Wace 的年度績效費用共同推動的。

So in total, investing earnings were $399 million.

因此，總投資收益為 3.99 億美元。

Turning to investment performance.

談到投資績效。

You can see the details here on page 10 of our earnings release.

您可以在我們的收益報告第 10 頁上查看詳細資訊。

The private equity portfolio was flat in the quarter and appreciated 14% for the year.

私募股權投資組合本季持平，全年升值 14%。

In real assets, the opportunistic real estate portfolio was up 1% in the quarter and 4% for the year.

在實體資產方面，機會型房地產投資組合本季上漲 1%，全年上漲 4%。

Infrastructure, up 2% for the quarter and up 14% for the year.

基礎設施本季上漲 2%，全年上漲 14%。

And in credit, the leveraged credit composite and the alternative credit composite were both up 2% in Q4 and for the year, performance here was up 10% and up 12%, respectively.

在信貸方面，槓桿信貸綜合指數和替代信貸綜合指數在第四季度均上漲了 2%，全年分別上漲了 10% 和 12%。

And then finally, consistent with our historical practice, we intend to increase our annual dividend from $0.70 to $0.74 per share, which will go into effect alongside first-quarter 2025 earnings.

最後，按照我們的歷史慣例，我們打算將年度股息從每股 0.70 美元增加到 0.74 美元，這將與 2025 年第一季的收益同時生效。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Rob.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給羅布。

Thanks a lot, Craig, and thank you all for joining our call this morning.

非常感謝，Craig，也感謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議。

KKR had a strong 2024 and our fourth-quarter results that Craig just walked through, give us continued confidence as we head into 2025.

KKR 在 2024 年表現強勁，而 Craig 剛剛介紹的我們的第四季度業績讓我們在邁向 2025 年時繼續充滿信心。

I'm going to begin today by reviewing some key operating metrics from the quarter and the very tangible signs of momentum that we are seeing across our businesses.

今天，我將首先回顧本季的一些關鍵營運指標以及我們在整個業務中看到的非常明顯的發展勢頭跡象。

Let me start first with our Asset Management business.

我先從我們的資產管理業務開始說。

As it relates to our capital raising efforts, we raised $27 billion this quarter, which was driven by diversified activity across each of our business lines.

就我們的融資工作而言，本季我們籌集了 270 億美元，這得益於我們各業務線的多元化活動。

Our private equity and real assets businesses together raised $15 billion of capital across a number of strategies.

我們的私募股權和實體資產業務透過多種策略共籌集了 150 億美元的資金。

And momentum in credit continued across our asset-based finance and direct lending vehicles, and we also saw an uptick in CLO formation.

我們的資產融資和直接貸款工具的信貸勢頭持續良好，我們也看到 CLO 的形成有所上升。

Total new capital raised for 2024 is $114 billion.

2024 年籌集的新資本總額為 1,140 億美元。

That is the second most active year in our history and up meaningfully from the approximately $70 billion that we raised in 2023.

這是我們歷史上第二活躍的一年，比我們在 2023 年籌集的約 700 億美元有顯著增長。

While we are only six months into our fundraising super cycle, we are seeing meaningful progress.

雖然我們的籌款超級週期才剛六個月，但我們看到了有意義的進展。

In our North American private equity strategy, where we are in early-stage fundraising, we are ahead of where we thought we would be at this point in time.

在我們的北美私募股權策略中，我們正處於早期融資階段，我們的進展比我們預想的要快。

Our efforts here are benefiting from really strong investment performance.

我們在這裡的努力受益於真正強勁的投資績效。

Also of note, 2024 was the eighth consecutive year that we returned more capital to our North American private equity clients than we have called.

同樣值得注意的是，2024 年是我們連續第八年向北美私募股權客戶返還的資本超過我們要求的金額。

And alongside the encouraging first steps in our flagship fundraising within private equity and infrastructure, we continue to raise capital across the breadth of our asset classes and vehicles.

除了我們在私募股權和基礎設施領域的旗艦融資方面邁出的令人鼓舞的第一步之外，我們還將繼續在各種資產類別和工具中籌集資金。

Taking a step back, over the past 12 months, only 15% of our $114 billion of new capital raised was from our flagship funds.

回顧一下，在過去的 12 個月中，我們籌集的 1,140 億美元新資本中只有 15% 來自我們的旗艦基金。

Client interest feels strong in areas like private credit, including asset-based finance, in particular, our IV side car franchise and insurance as well as newer strategies for us such as climate.

客戶對私人信貸等領域的興趣十分濃厚，包括資產融資，特別是我們的 IV 側車特許經營權和保險，以及氣候等對我們來說較新的策略。

Turning to wealth.

轉向財富。

We are seeing continued scaling with AUM across our K-Series vehicles at $16 billion as of year-end.

我們看到，截至年底，我們的 K 系列車的 AUM 持續擴大至 160 億美元。

And including activity that closed January 1, 2025, we are now at $18 billion, which compares to $7 billion just a year ago.

如果算上 2025 年 1 月 1 日結束的活動，我們現在的規模已經達到 180 億美元，而一年前這一數字僅為 70 億美元。

Looking more broadly, we now have approximately $100 billion of assets under management from individuals, largely by a family offices and ultra high net worth clients as well as the credit investor universe.

更廣泛地說，我們現在管理著約 1000 億美元的個人資產，主要來自家族理財室和超高淨值客戶以及信貸投資者群體。

And looking ahead, we expect our reach will expand to a new client base as we continue to track towards the launch of our two hybrid credit products in the first half of 2025.

展望未來，我們預計，隨著我們繼續朝著在 2025 年上半年推出兩種混合信貸產品的目標邁進，我們的業務範圍將擴大到新的客戶群。

These are developed exclusively in partnership with Capital Group targeting the mass affluent.

這些都是與 Capital Group 獨家合作開發的，針對大眾富裕階層。

At the same time, we continue to work on product design across other asset classes, which will follow over the coming several quarters.

同時，我們將繼續致力於其他資產類別的產品設計，這將在接下來的幾個季度內完成。

So we feel good about where we are from a private wealth perspective.

因此，從私人財富的角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

And we really do believe that this is just the beginning for us.

我們確實相信，這對我們來說只是一個開始。

Turning now to monetizations.

現在來談談貨幣化。

Over the past couple of quarters, we've been noting signs of an improved backdrop with increased M&A volumes and firmer global equity and debt markets.

在過去幾季中，我們注意到經濟環境改善的跡象，包括併購交易量增加以及全球股票和債務市場更加走強。

This strength is evidenced in our 2024 gross realized performance income and realized investment income figures of $1.8 billion and over $600 million, respectively.

這項優勢體現在我們 2024 年實現的總績效收入和實現的投資收入分別為 18 億美元和超過 6 億美元。

Overall, our monetization activity is up over 40% year on year.

總體而言，我們的貨幣化活動年增了 40% 以上。

I'm now looking at deployment.

我現在正在查看部署。

In 2024, we invested $84 billion of capital.

2024年，我們投資了840億美元的資本。

That's up meaningfully from $44 billion in 2023 and compared to $71 billion in 2022.

這比 2023 年的 440 億美元和 2022 年的 710 億美元有顯著成長。

This was driven by a significant ramp in credit along with a rebound across many of our private market strategies.

這是由信貸大幅增加以及我們的許多私募市場策略的反彈所推動的。

As we head into a more constructive environment, we do feel very well positioned.

當我們進入一個更建設性的環境時，我們確實感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。

As a result of the current activity levels, especially in relation to deployment, our capital markets business saw another strong revenue quarter at $270 million, bringing the 2024 total to $1 billion for the first time in our history.

由於目前的活動水平，特別是與部署相關的活動水平，我們的資本市場業務又實現了強勁的收入季度，達到 2.7 億美元，使 2024 年總額首次達到 10 億美元。

This is a major milestone in the evolution of the business and it was only just four years ago when this business was roughly half the size and largely private equity driven.

這是該公司業務發展過程中的一個重要里程碑，而就在四年前，該公司的業務規模還只有現在的一半左右，而且主要由私募股權驅動。

Now turning to insurance. 2024 marked the first year that we've owned 100% of Global Atlantic and the connectivity between KKR and GA only increased over the course of the year.

現在談談保險。 2024 年是我們擁有 Global Atlantic 100% 股權的第一年，而 KKR 與 GA 之間的連通性在這一年中只增不減。

You've seen investment opportunities for GA increase in strategies like infrastructure and real estate equities.

您已經看到 GA 在基礎設施和房地產股票等策略方面的投資機會增加。

And as our businesses continue to integrate, we see even more opportunities to invest strategically against the long-dated liabilities that Global Atlantic is able to source at scale.

隨著我們業務的不斷整合，我們看到了更多的機會，可以針對 Global Atlantic 能夠大規模獲得的長期債務進行策略性投資。

And finally, focusing on strategic holdings for a minute.

最後，我們來集中討論一下戰略持有。

Our strategic holdings business represents a big differentiator for us, and the announcement this morning is a further accelerant of this segment.

我們的策略控股業務對我們來說是一個很大的差異化因素，今天上午的公告進一步促進了這項業務的發展。

We will be increasing the existing stakes of three businesses that we know well and really like by at least $2.1 billion.

我們將對我們熟悉並且真正喜歡的三家企業的現有股份增加至少 21 億美元。

KKR

凱基證券

will invest $1.1 billion, which will show up in strategic holdings, while the remainder will be from one of our strategic partners.

將投資 11 億美元，其中將以戰略控股的形式出現，剩餘部分將來自我們的一個戰略合作夥伴。

This piece will become fee-paying assets under management and will be additive to management fees and future carried interest.

這部分將成為收費的管理資產，並將添加到管理費和未來的附帶權益中。

As a reminder, these businesses have high-quality management teams.

需要提醒的是，這些企業擁有高素質的管理團隊。

They are cash generative, tend to be less cyclical and typically have lower leverage over the whole period to name just a few of the key attributes.

它們具有現金產生能力，週期性較小，整個期間的槓桿率通常較低，這些只是其中幾個關鍵特徵。

In other words, these are businesses that we want to own for the long term.

換句話說，這些都是我們想要長期擁有的企業。

Today, we have 18 companies that we've invested behind over the course of the last eight years, and we're continuing to see consistent growth across the underlying franchises.

如今，我們在過去八年中投資了 18 家公司，我們看到這些特許經營業務持續穩定成長。

For context, KKR share of these businesses as of the third quarter.

以下是截至第三季 KKR 在這些業務中的份額。

So this is on a one-quarter lag basis generated approximately $3.7 billion of revenue and approximately $900 million of EBITDA over the trailing 12 months.

因此，以一個季度的滯後為基礎，過去 12 個月產生了約 37 億美元的收入和約 9 億美元的 EBITDA。

We believe strategic holdings will be a truly unique driver of future financial performance for KKR for years to come.

我們相信，戰略控股將成為未來幾年 KKR 財務表現的真正獨特推動力。

Remember, no employees sit within strategic holdings.

請記住，沒有任何員工坐在策略控股公司內。

We didn't have to hire anybody new to lean into this growth opportunity, which aligns really well with our focus on preserving our collaborative one-firm culture.

我們無需僱用任何新人來抓住這一成長機會，這與我們專注於維護協作的單一公司文化非常契合。

And with these additional purchases, alongside continued strong performance across our portfolio, we are increasing our guidance for strategic holdings operating earnings that we introduced roughly a year ago by $50 million in 2026 to $350 million-plus and by $100 million in each of 2028 and 2030 to $700 million-plus and $1.1 billion-plus, respectively.

透過這些額外的購買，加上我們投資組合繼續保持強勁的表現，我們將大約一年前推出的戰略控股營業利潤預期在 2026 年提高 5,000 萬美元至 3.5 億美元以上，並在 2028 年和 2030 年分別提高 1 億美元至 7 億美元以上和 11 億美元以上。

I don't believe that there are many corporates that give guidance out to 2030.

我不相信有很多公司會給 2030 年的預測。

And hopefully, this gives you a very clear sense of our confidence in the outlook, durability and the growth trajectory for our business.

希望這能讓您清楚了解我們對業務前景、持久性和成長軌跡的信心。

With that, let me hand it off to Scott.

說完這些，讓我把它交給史考特。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Given this is our year-end call, I want to spend a few minutes sharing how it feels inside the firm.

鑑於這是我們的年終電話會議，我想花幾分鐘分享公司內部的感受。

And forgive the analogy, but I'm a runner, and this is how I think about it.

請原諒我的比喻，但我是一名跑者，這就是我的想法。

The punchline is that despite all the progress you've seen, and the progression of the numbers Craig and Rob just took you through, we have not been running at full pace the last couple of years.

關鍵在於，儘管您已經看到了所有進展，並且 Craig 和 Rob 剛剛向您介紹了數字的進展，但在過去幾年中我們並沒有全速前進。

Said another way, we are not yet operating at our true potential.

換句話說，我們尚未發揮出我們的真正潛力。

But it does feel like we're picking up speed on multiple fronts.

但確實感覺我們在多個方面都在加快速度。

What do I mean by that?

我這樣說是什麼意思？

Well, let's go back for a minute to the last two years.

好吧，讓我們回顧一下過去兩年。

So you have some context for 2025, and we'll start with 2023.

因此，您對 2025 年有一些了解，我們將從 2023 年開始。

In Asset Management in '23, buyers and sellers were far apart.

在1923年的資產管理中，買家和賣家相距甚遠。

Owners of assets, including ourselves, did not want to sell or finance assets in a dislocated market.

包括我們自己在內的資產所有者不想在混亂的市場中出售或融資資產。

So deployment, monetization, and fundraising were more muted.

因此，部署、貨幣化和籌款都比較低調。

Capital markets were closed for large portions of the year.

一年中的大部分時間，資本市場都處於關閉狀態。

There was more fear than greed in the market and private wealth was just launching for us.

市場上的恐懼多於貪婪，私人財富才剛開始湧向我們。

At Global Atlantic, we were at approximately 63% ownership.

在 Global Atlantic，我們擁有約 63% 的所有權。

We were not utilizing all of KKR, and we were still figuring out what was possible.

我們並未利用好 KKR 的全部力量，我們仍在探索可行的方法。

And in strategic holdings, the portfolio was still maturing and generating little cash earnings for the firm, and we were still working on the vision of what it could be.

在策略持股方面，投資組合仍在成熟，為公司創造的現金收益很少，我們仍在努力實現它的願景。

So in short, we were running uphill in bad weather, on rough terrain and new gear.

簡而言之，我們在惡劣的天氣、崎嶇的地形和新裝備下上坡奔跑。

Now let's go to 2024.

現在讓我們進入2024年。

In Asset Management, the market began to open in the first half of last year and buyers and sellers started finding each other again.

在資產管理領域，市場在去年上半年開始開放，買家和賣家又開始找到彼此。

It usually takes some time for the M&A market to turn back on, and that's what we saw in the first half.

併購市場通常需要一段時間才能恢復，這就是我們在上半年看到的情況。

The market was gearing back up.

市場正在重新復甦。

But then the election distraction slowed things down again in the back half.

但後半段選舉的干擾又讓事情進展緩慢。

So we didn't see a full year of normalcy, and it felt a bit on, off.

因此，我們沒有看到整整一年的正常情況，而且感覺有點不穩定。

Private Wealth was still ramping for us with more hiring and the team getting embedded while we were being added to many more platforms, but nowhere near what's possible.

私人財富業務仍在不斷擴大，我們招募了更多員工，團隊也逐漸融入其中，同時我們也被添加到了更多的平台上，但還遠遠沒有達到可能的高度。

And you saw only the first steps in our fundraising super cycle.

你們看到的只是我們的籌款超級週期的第一步。

So overall, as you heard, deployment and monetization and fundraising were all up materially last year, but not what it could be in a full-year hospitable market.

總體而言，正如您所聽到的，去年部署、貨幣化和融資都大幅增加，但並未達到全年繁榮市場應有的水平。

In Global Atlantic, we got to 100% ownership at the beginning of last year.

我們在去年年初獲得了 Global Atlantic 100% 的所有權。

And then we spent the year sorting out how to use all of KKR and all of GA truly together on an integrated basis.

然後，我們花了一年時間研究如何真正將 KKR 和 GA 整合在一起。

It was a learning year.

這是學習的一年。

In strategic holdings, we explained to the market what we are doing at our Investor Day in April and continue to focus on how to scale dividend flow faster and portfolio optimize.

在策略持股方面，我們在四月份的投資者日向市場解釋了我們正在做的事情，並繼續關注如何更快地擴大股息流和優化投資組合。

And throughout the year, it became clear the earnings and dividend compounding opportunity was even greater than we expected.

全年來看，獲利和股息複合機會顯然比我們預期的還要大。

But it was early.

但還為時過早。

So 2024 was a good year, not a great year.

所以 2024 年是好年頭，但不是偉大的一年。

We executed reasonably well, but we are still running uphill with intermittent rain after some sun, and we were learning how to use our new gear.

我們的表現還不錯，但是在出太陽後，我們仍然在間歇性降雨的上坡路上奔跑，我們正在學習如何使用我們的新裝備。

But to be clear, overall conditions were much better than 2023, and we got smarter about how to use the model we've built.

但需要明確的是，整體情況比 2023 年好得多，而且我們在如何使用我們建立的模型方面也變得更加聰明。

So let's talk about how it feels now, heading into 2025 and 2026.

那麼讓我們來談談現在以及邁向 2025 年和 2026 年的感受。

In Asset Management, pipelines are up, more exits are possible, and we see more deployment opportunities globally and across asset classes.

在資產管理方面，管道正在增加，有更多的退出機會，而且我們在全球和跨資產類別中看到了更多的部署機會。

Exits should see fundraising momentum even more at the exact time we're in the market with a number of our flagship funds.

當我們帶著我們的一些旗艦基金進入市場時，退出應該會看到更多的籌資勢頭。

Private Wealth is showing real progress, and we have seen flows increase and broaden globally and across platforms.

私人財富正在取得真正的進步，我們看到流量在全球範圍內和跨平台的增加和擴大。

And our Capital Group partnership is expected to launch soon in credit, with other asset classes to follow.

我們的資本集團合作關係預計很快就會在信貸領域啟動，其他資產類別也將隨之啟動。

We expect this partnership to be significant for us.

我們期望這次合作對我們來說具有重要意義。

At Global Atlantic, we're much smarter now after a year of owning 100%.

在 Global Atlantic，經過一年的 100% 控股後，我們現在變得更聰明了。

We are shifting our strategy to emphasize longer duration, more private market assets, more global and more integration across operational areas.

我們正在轉變策略，強調更長的期限、更多的私人市場資產、更多的全球化和更多跨營運領域的整合。

We're starting to capture the opportunities we see in capital markets in Asia as just two examples.

我們開始抓住亞洲資本市場上的機遇，這只是兩個例子。

And we see a path to fully use the power of the combined model and what that could mean.

我們看到了充分利用組合模型的力量的途徑及其可能的意義。

There's more opportunity than we thought.

機會比我們想像的還要多。

And in Strategic Holdings, we can really see the potential of what this could be.

在戰略控股中，我們確實看到了它的潛力。

Today's announcement is just a start.

今天的公告只是一個開始。

The dividend scaling and compounding opportunity is real.

股利擴大和複利機會是真實存在的。

So where are we now?

那我們現在在哪裡？

The sun is out, and we're running on flat road.

太陽出來了，我們在平坦的道路上奔跑。

The conditions and forecasts are good.

條件和預測都很好。

We're comfortable in our new gear.

我們穿著新裝備很舒服。

We're stronger for the last two years of hard work, and we're picking up speed.

經過過去兩年的努力，我們變得更加強大，並且正在加快速度。

Conditions could, of course, change, which would impact some of this, political, geopolitical, inflation, rates to name just a few.

當然，情況可能會發生變化，對政治、地緣政治、通貨膨脹、利率等產生影響。

But remember, KKR's business model is different.

但請記住，KKR 的商業模式是不同的。

That's on purpose.

這是故意的。

The combination of asset management plus insurance plus strategic holdings create a model with a massive addressable market, significant recurring earnings and the opportunity to grow with few additional people at KKR, preserving culture and enhancing our ability to perform for clients, and further increase our margins.

資產管理+保險+策略控股的結合創造了一個模式，擁有巨大的潛在市場、可觀的經常性收益和在 KKR 僅增加少量人員的情況下實現增長的機會，既能保留文化，又能增強我們為客戶提供服務的能力，並進一步提高我們的利潤率。

So we're optimistic, still out there running, and happy to take your questions.

因此我們很樂觀，仍在努力，並且很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

（操作員指示） Craig Siegenthaler，美國銀行。

Our question is on the investing outlook across the firm.

我們的問題是關於整個公司的投資前景。

So the consensus outlook for '25 was always stronger, but the macro has become a little bit more challenging versus 90 days ago.

因此，對 25 年的普遍預期總是更為強勁，但與 90 天前相比，宏觀情況變得更具挑戰性。

You can see this in the 10-year and the VIX.

您可以在 10 年期和 VIX 中看到這一點。

So sitting here today in January, what is the investment outlook for 2025 relative to last year?

那麼今天是 1 月份，相對於去年，2025 年的投資前景如何？

And what has been the sensitivity to some of the macro trends that have developed.

對已經出現的一些宏觀趨勢的敏感度如何？

Craig, it's Scott.

克雷格，我是史考特。

Let me start off with that one.

讓我先從這個開始。

Our view has not changed.

我們的觀點沒有改變。

I think when we were talking at the end of last year, I think the perspective was heading into '25, you'd see an improved M&A environment probably a lot of the transactions that maybe didn't get done in '23 and then maybe got put on hold in late '24, we come back to the market.

我想，當我們在去年年底談話時，我認為前景是展望25年，你會看到一個改善的併購環境，可能很多交易可能在23年沒有完成，然後可能在24年底被擱置，我們回到市場。

That is still very much our expectation that you're going to see the M&A market pick up this year.

我們仍然非常期待今年併購市場能夠回升。

We expect there's going to be a lot of noise, no doubt.

毫無疑問，我們預計會有很多噪音。

But as we look through the noise and try to figure out the signal, there's nothing that we're seeing that changes that perspective as we sit here today.

但是，當我們透過噪音，試圖找出訊號時，我們所看到的一切都沒有改變我們今天坐在這裡的觀點。

.

。

And remember, for us, volatility creates opportunities.

請記住，對我們來說，波動創造了機會。

We are expecting there will be some volatility, but we think that will make the investment environment even more interesting for us.

我們預計會出現一些波動，但我們認為這將使我們的投資環境更加有趣。

And so we remain optimistic, as you heard in the prepared remarks, no change.

因此我們保持樂觀，正如您在準備好的發言中所聽到的，沒有變化。

And I think remember how global our business is.

我想記住我們的業務是多麼的全球化。

So a lot of the opportunities we see are not just in the US but around the world.

因此，我們看到的許多機會不僅在美國，而且在世界各地。

But if you think about what we're telling you we expect more investing, more monetization and more fundraising.

但如果你仔細想想我們告訴你的，我們期待更多的投資、更多的貨幣化和更多的融資。

And so the punch line and kind of keep everybody keeping their eye on the ball really hasn't changed for us.

所以，對我們來說，笑點和讓每個人都專注的重點其實並沒有改變。

Benjamin Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的班傑明‧布迪什 (Benjamin Budish)。

Maybe a follow-up on Craig's question, thinking about the 2025 outlook.

也許是對 Craig 問題的後續思考，思考 2025 年的前景。

Maybe just start, could you give us a little bit of an update on the Americas fundraise.

也許只是開始，您能否向我們介紹美洲籌款的最新情況。

But in terms of 2025, just maybe tying that into how should we think about sort of the trajectory of management fee growth into the year.

但就 2025 年而言，也許我們應該將其與如何思考當年管理費的成長軌跡連結起來。

There's obviously some dynamics with catch-up fees, timing of lend activations.

顯然，補繳費用和貸款啟動時間之間存在一些動態關係。

But curious on those two items, the Americas fund and how we should think about broader 2025 management fee growth.

但我對這兩項、美洲基金以及我們應該如何看待 2025 年更廣泛的管理費成長感到好奇。

Ben, it's Craig.

本，我是克雷格。

Why don't I start?

我為何不開始呢？

I'm sure Rob will pick up on the management fee trend.

我確信羅布將會了解管理費的趨勢。

Thanks for asking about Americas private equity that, as you know, is a front-burner topic for us as Rob had noted, we did take some capital prior to year-end.

感謝您詢問有關美國私募股權的問題，正如您所知，這是我們最關注的話題，正如 Rob 所說，我們確實在年底之前吸收了一些資本。

And without getting into the details, as the first close period is still ongoing.

我們無需深入討論細節，因為第一個關閉期仍在進行中。

As Rob noted, we're definitely ahead of where we thought we'd be, which has been really encouraging.

正如羅布所說，我們確實超出了我們的預期，這真的令人鼓舞。

And we do expect to be wrapped up with the first close in Q1 here.

我們確實希望在第一季完成第一次收盤。

So you should expect more news here shortly.

因此您很快就會在這裡看到更多新聞。

So good news, good progress to date with more to come.

所以，好消息是，迄今為止進展順利，未來還會有更多進展。

Then, I'll pick up on the management fee side.

那我來談談管理費方面。

As you know, management fee growth has been a real area of relative strength for us.

如您所知，管理費成長一直是我們真正的相對優勢領域。

If you look back over the past three years, we've grown our management fees at a CAGR of 19%.

如果回顧過去三年，我們的管理費以 19% 的複合年增長率成長。

We were up 14% in 2024.

到 2024 年，我們的成長率為 14%。

And as we look forward, we can see some acceleration in management fee growth off of that level.

展望未來，我們可以看到管理費的成長將會在這個水準上有所加速。

And we got a lot of good things as Scott noted, happening across our business right now.

正如斯科特所說，目前我們的業務中發生了很多好事。

Current expectation is that Americas Buyout Fund plus or minus, will turn on midpoint of the year.

目前的預期是，美洲收購基金的漲跌將在今年中期出現轉折。

But there's lots of other real signs of tangible management fee growth.

但還有很多其他跡象顯示管理費確實在成長。

And as you think maybe a further step back and you look at our $4.50-plus per share FRE target in 2026.

正如您所想的，也許再退一步看看我們 2026 年每股 4.50 美元以上的 FRE 目標。

It's obviously a target.

很顯然，這是一個目標。

We've got a lot of confidence in being able to hit in order to achieve that, we're going to need to drive real execution around management fee growth from here.

我們非常有信心能夠實現這一目標，我們需要從現在開始推動管理費成長的實際執行。

And we feel like we're well positioned to be able to do that, but still a lot to get done.

我們覺得我們已經準備好做到這一點，但仍有許多工作要做。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

I was hoping we can go back to the Strategic Holdings announcements, obviously, an important stuff for you guys.

我希望我們能夠回顧一下戰略控股的公告，顯然，這對你們來說是一件重要的事情。

Could you just maybe walk us through sort of why now, why is now the right time to add when you're looking across the 18 portfolio companies that you have, what is the percentage that KKR owns today on balance sheet?

您能否向我們介紹一下，為什麼現在是添加的正確時機，當您查看您擁有的 18 家投資組合公司時，KKR 目前在資產負債表上擁有的百分比是多少？

And I guess, what percentage of any portfolio company would you feel comfortable owning over time?

我想，隨著時間的推移，您願意持有任何投資組合公司多大的股份？

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Why don't I start.

我何不開始呢？

So to answer maybe the last part of your question first, strategic Holdings owns roughly directly 20% of the core private equity businesses.

因此，先回答你問題的最後一部分，策略控股直接擁有約 20% 的核心私募股權業務。

Now that will vary from business to business as a whole, roughly 20%.

整體而言，不同企業之間的差異較大，約為 20%。

Listen, we've articulated that we view strategic holdings as a real differentiator for our business model.

聽著，我們已經明確表示，我們將戰略控股視為我們商業模式的真正差異化因素。

It is an add on top of asset management and insurance and we've talked often about how we believe capital allocation can drive incremental long-term accretion to our recurring earnings per share.

它是資產管理和保險的附加功能，我們經常談論我們如何相信資本配置可以推動每股經常性收益的長期增量成長。

And so we saw an opportunity to buy a larger stake in three businesses that we know really well that we believed would be really accretive to our long-term earnings per share growth, and we're excited to be able to do that.

因此，我們看到了一個機會，可以收購三家我們非常了解的企業的更多股份，我們相信這將真正促進我們長期每股收益的成長，我們很高興能夠做到這一點。

Yeah, Alex, it's Scott.

是的，亞歷克斯，我是史考特。

I'll just add on.

我只是補充一下。

Just as a reminder, at least what's in strategic holdings today is the balance sheet exposure to our core private equity business.

需要提醒的是，至少今天的策略持股是對我們的核心私募股權業務的資產負債表敞口。

And so that -- to answer your first question, we're roughly a third of that capital on the whole across that platform.

所以——回答你的第一個問題，我們在整個平台上大約佔據了該資本的三分之一。

When you look at the last partnership that we created there.

當你回顧我們在那裡建立的最後一個合作關係時。

We had these two partners.

我們有這兩個合作夥伴。

This incremental investment we're making.

我們正在進行這項增量投資。

One of our partners, Chubb, the large insurance company is going to be investing alongside of us.

我們的合作夥伴之一，大型保險公司 Chubb 將與我們一起投資。

And so we'll be half of the capital in this add-on, as Rob mentioned in the prepared remarks.

因此，正如 Rob 在準備好的發言中所提到的那樣，我們將佔此附加產品的一半資本。

And in terms of the timing, there's nothing magic about it.

從時間角度來說，這並沒有什麼神奇之處。

We feel great about these companies, they continue to mature.

我們對這些公司感到很滿意，它們正在不斷成熟。

They're getting that much closer to paying meaningful dividends and already are in a couple of the instances.

他們已經越來越接近支付有意義的股息，並且已經有幾個例子了。

And so as the portfolio matures, and we look at the opportunity to continue to scale what strategic holdings can be, it felt like a good time.

因此，隨著投資組合的成熟，我們看到繼續擴大策略持有量的機會，這似乎是一個好時機。

We had some partners that were looking to get liquidity and so it lined up nicely for us.

我們有一些合作夥伴正在尋求獲得流動性，所以這對我們來說很有利。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen 公司。

Just wondering if you could maybe double click into the wealth management opportunity.

我只是想知道您是否可以雙擊進入財富管理機會。

You spoke very constructively about the outlook from here.

您非常有建設性地談論了這裡的前景。

Just sort of wondering where you sort of see the greatest opportunity.

只是想知道您在哪裡看到了最大的機會。

I know it's a fairly depth -- in-depth question just from a multi-vector perspective, a product or a geography or a distribution channel.

我知道這是一個相當深入的問題，從多向量角度來看，包括產品、地理位置或通路。

And I was wondering if you could tie that to your outlook for the other expense line as we should think about further scaling of the platform?

我想知道您是否可以將其與對其他費用項目的展望聯繫起來，因為我們應該考慮進一步擴展平台？

Bill, it's Craig.

比爾，我是克雷格。

Why don't I start?

我為何不開始呢？

I'm sure Scott will add then on Capital Group.

我確信斯科特將會對資本集團 (Capital Group) 做出補充。

So just taking a step back and level setting for everyone.

因此，只需退一步並為每個人設定一個水平。

As of 12/31, we had about $100 billion of AUM from individuals.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的個人資產管理規模約為 1,000 億美元。

And that number, just to be clear, does not include policyholders at Global Atlantic.

需要明確的是，該數字並不包括 Global Atlantic 的保單持有人。

So if anything, that figure is understated as you think about the breadth of our presence and activities with individuals.

因此，如果考慮到我們與個人的存在和活動的廣度，這個數字就被低估了。

The largest part of that and probably the most mature would be capital that we have from high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals, family offices that have invested in our funds over time.

其中最大、也可能最成熟的是來自高淨值和超高淨值人士以及家族理財室的資本，這些資本長期以來一直在投資我們的基金。

One of the pieces that is growing significantly and where we still see lots of room for growth relates to the K-Series products.

其中，成長顯著且我們仍看到很大成長空間的產品是 K 系列產品。

And again, just for everybody, these are funds and strategies that are designed and tailored specifically for wealth investors and the accredited investor as well as qualified purchasers.

再說一次，這些基金和策略是針對所有人而設計和客製化的，專門針對財富投資者、合格投資者以及合格買家。

And so over $100 million, as Rob noted, $16 million are from the K-Series products as of 12/31 and that $16 million goes up to $18 million if you include the January subscriptions.

因此，正如 Rob 指出的，1 億美元以上的收入中有 1,600 萬美元來自截至 12 月 31 日的 K 系列產品，如果算上 1 月份的訂閱費用，這 1,600 萬美元將上升至 1,800 萬美元。

So just in terms of K-Series, a couple of thoughts.

僅就 K 系列而言，我有幾點想法。

First, again, that $18 million a year ago compares to $7 million.

首先，再說一次，一年前是 1800 萬美元，而去年是 700 萬美元。

So early days, but we feel really good about our progress.

雖然還處於早期階段，但我們對我們的進展感到非常滿意。

I think that is true in particular, in infrastructure as well as in private equity, which are newer asset classes for many of these investors.

我認為，這一點尤其適用於基礎設施和私募股權領域，因為對許多投資者來說，它們都是較新的資產類別。

In total, we raised over $8 billion last year for infra in PE and have leading market share in both of those asset classes.

總體而言，去年我們為 PE 的基礎設施籌集了超過 80 億美元，並且在這兩個資產類別中都佔有領先的市場份額。

And again, it's tough to draw broad conclusions from really short periods of time.

而且，從非常短的時間內得出廣泛的結論非常困難。

But in January, we raised again over $1 billion, the strongest fundraising month for us in both private equity as well as infrastructure.

但一月份，我們再次籌集了超過10億美元，這是我們在私募股權和基礎設施領域籌集資金最多的一個月。

And in terms of the numbers in total, we did launch our private BDC more recently, much younger in its seasoning and more growth in presence.

就總體數量而言，我們最近確實推出了私人 BDC，其成熟度更高，而且存在感更強。

And so I think the K-Series growth opportunity is one that's significant and even taking a step back, mass affluent investors, it's not been easy for them to access alternatives historically.

因此，我認為 K 系列的成長機會非常重要，即使退一步來看，對於大眾富裕投資者來說，從歷史上看，他們也很難獲得其他選擇。

And we do believe over the coming years, there continues to be lots of opportunities for us to grow, build, and scale.

我們確實相信，在未來幾年，我們仍有許多機會成長、建立和擴大規模。

We think, given our brand, our track record, the investments we've made in distribution and marketing, there's lots of near-term opportunities for us in terms of these strategies, longer-term opportunities as we think, again, out in the long term about retirement and 401(k).

我們認為，鑑於我們的品牌、業績記錄以及我們在分銷和行銷方面的投資，就這些策略而言，我們在短期內有很多機會，就長期而言，我們在退休和 401(k) 方面也有很多機會。

And then another piece of that is a strategic partnership with Capital Group, and I'll let Scott touch on that.

其中另一個部分是與 Capital Group 建立策略合作夥伴關係，我將讓史考特談一下這一點。

Yeah, Bill, more broadly, I think part of the reason you're hearing such optimism in our belief is it does feel like we're just getting started here, and we're pleased that we're already ahead of our early expectations.

是的，比爾，從更廣泛的角度來看，我認為您聽到我們對自己的信念如此樂觀的原因之一是，我們確實感覺才剛剛開始，而且我們很高興我們已經超出了我們早期的預期。

So just to put it in context, Craig mentioned the K-Series across all four major product areas, we really only got the products out there in the last 12 months across private equity and for real estate and credit.

所以，為了便於理解，Craig 提到了涵蓋所有四大主要產品領域的 K 系列，實際上，我們在過去 12 個月內才在私募股權、房地產和信貸領域推出了這些產品。

So it's relatively recent for us.

所以對我們來說這還是比較新的。

We also have our IV vehicle in the market as being also sold to high net worth individuals.

我們的 IV 汽車也投放到市場上，賣給高淨值個人。

So there is a big opportunity, and there's more product ideas that are coming out of those conversations with platforms.

因此，這是一個巨大的機遇，並且有更多的產品創意從與平台的對話中產生。

So we have great early momentum and we're picking up pace, as I said.

因此，正如我所說的，我們早期勢頭強勁，而且正在加快步伐。

Craig mentioned Capital Group.

克雷格提到了資本集團 (Capital Group)。

We think that is a big opportunity for the firm.

我們認為這對公司來說是一個巨大的機會。

The K-Series really goes to be put in a US context to accredited investors, which is something that's less than 10% of US households, Capital Group and our partnership there gets us to the mass affluent called the other 90% of US households.

K 系列實際上是在美國背景下面向合格投資者推出的，這部分投資者占美國家庭的不到 10%，而 Capital Group 和我們的合作夥伴則讓我們接觸到另外 90% 美國家庭的大眾富裕階層。

They have been fantastic partners and you should expect that we and Capital Group will be doing more together over time.

他們一直是優秀的合作夥伴，您可以期待我們和 Capital Group 將隨著時間的推移共同取得更多成果。

So it's early, but we're really pleased with the results.

雖然還為時過早，但我們對結果非常滿意。

And as we look at the opportunity and size it for ourselves and think about what this can mean 5, 10 years from now.

當我們審視這個機遇，為自己衡量它時，我們會思考這在5年、10年後又意味著什麼。

It just continues to get larger than the more time we spend.

隨著我們花費的時間越來越多，它變得越來越大。

Rob, do you want to hit the expenses question?

羅布，你想討論一下費用問題嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Bill, just real quickly, any K-Series distribution-related costs, we show in other operating expenses, which is part of the reason why you saw a little bit of an uptick this year.

比爾，很快，任何與 K 系列分銷相關的成本，我們都計入其他營運費用中，這也是今年你看到小幅上漲的原因之一。

We were -- as I'm sure you know, able to grow our fee revenue at a pace that well exceeded our operating expense growth, even with some of those upward pressures, we were, I want to say, roughly 15.5% OpEx margin last year, and that number was closer to 14% this year.

我相信您知道，我們的費用收入成長速度遠超營運費用成長速度，即使面臨一些上行壓力，去年我們的營運支出利潤率約為 15.5%，而今年這一數字接近 14%。

And as we look forward, as it relates to our operating expense and placement fees and related distribution costs, that's about as clear an ROI as we have from a spend here at KKR.

展望未來，由於它與我們的營運費用、安置費和相關分銷成本相關，因此這與我們在 KKR 的支出所獲得的投資回報率一樣清晰。

So those going up is generally a good thing overall to the model.

因此，對於整個模型來說，這些數字的上升總體來說是一件好事。

But other than that, we try and do a really good job to be vigilant on expenses, and we do see the opportunity from here for further margin expansion because we really do believe we're going to be able to continue to skill our revenue base at a level that meaningfully exceeds our head count growth across the firm and the operating complexity that we'll be taking on.

但除此之外，我們盡力在費用方面保持警惕，我們確實看到了進一步擴大利潤的機會，因為我們確實相信我們將能夠繼續將我們的收入基礎提高到顯著超過我們整個公司的員工人數增長和我們將要承擔的運營複雜性的水平。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore ISI。

A question in real assets and infra.

有關實體資產和基礎設施的一個問題。

You obviously grew a big, diversified platform very well.

顯然，你們已經很好地發展了一個大型、多元化的平台。

There's these huge TAMs that we've been seeing in data warehouse power.

我們已經看到資料倉儲能力中存在巨大的 TAM。

You have your recent partnership with Energy Capital, you have some recent power company acquisitions.

您最近與 Energy Capital 建立了合作關係，並且收購了一些電力公司。

So my question is, has anything changed on the heels of DeepSeek?

所以我的問題是，DeepSeek 之後有什麼改變嗎？

Has it changed the way you think about prices paid on recent assets and or demand in the future for what everybody seems to be building in this tremendous data-oriented addressable market?

它是否改變了您對近期資產價格的看法，以及對在這個巨大的以數據為導向的潛在市場中每個人都在構建的東西的未來需求的看法？

Glenn, it's Craig.

格倫，我是克雷格。

Why don't I start?

我為何不開始呢？

And I guess why don't we begin with two high-level observations.

我想我們為什麼不從兩個高層次的觀察開始呢？

I think first, and you would have heard this a number of times last week, and I'm thinking on some of the earnings calls across the tech industry, in general, innovation that drives efficiency is a good thing.

我認為首先，您可能上週已經多次聽到這種說法，而且我正在思考整個科技行業的一些財報電話會議，總體而言，推動效率的創新是一件好事。

And that can result obviously in greater adoption and increased demands that can result from that.

這顯然會導致更廣泛的採用和由此產生的更多需求。

And second and more specific to the data center business, with the growth in overall data generation, cloud and AI, there's just a need for much more compute.

第二，更具體地說，對於資料中心業務來說，隨著整體資料生成、雲端運算和人工智慧的成長，對運算的需求也大大增加。

So there's little question in our minds that long term data center power and infrastructure, demand is growing.

因此，我們毫不懷疑，長期資料中心電力和基礎設施的需求正在成長。

Now with that said, as you noted, DeepSeek introduced questions on the demand side, really focused on how much and where, right?

話雖如此，正如您所說，DeepSeek 引入了需求方的問題，真正關注的是數量和地點，對嗎？

So -- and while it's probably too early for really anyone to have a great view around CapEx spend and the like, when we look at our portfolio and our approach, we think we have a number of things really working in our favor.

因此 — — 儘管現在可能對資本支出等問題還沒有很好的看法，但當我們審視我們的投資組合和方法時，我們認為有很多事情確實對我們有利。

So first, across our five platforms, we did not ascribe any meaningful value to AI demand in our original underwriting.

首先，在我們的五個平台上，我們在最初的核保中沒有為人工智慧需求賦予任何有意義的價值。

So as an example, our largest investment in the space, CyrusOne -- that was a take-private announced in 2021.

舉個例子，我們在該領域最大的投資 CyrusOne 於 2021 年宣布私有化。

The thesis that at that point was entirely driven by cloud demands and the AI dynamics have all been upside.

當時的論點是，雲端運算需求和人工智慧動態完全推動了一切。

And in our more recent examples, investments, rather, growth driven by cloud, not AI, again, has been really the critical driver.

在我們最近的例子中，投資，更確切地說，由雲端而不是人工智慧驅動的成長，才是真正的關鍵驅動力。

Other things that we look at.

我們正在關注的其他事物。

Location matters in our view.

我們認為位置很重要。

And so our team has been focused on locations that are approximate to key population centers that we think will be difficult to replicate or replace.

因此，我們的團隊一直專注於靠近主要人口中心的地點，我們認為這些地點很難複製或取代。

We do not build speculatively at the platforms.

我們不會在平台上進行投機性建設。

And so instead, you'll see CapEx once you have a contractual customer commitment in hand, and remember, again, these counterparties are often some of the largest, most creditworthy counterparties in the world.

因此，一旦你手頭上有合約客戶承諾，你就會看到資本支出，並且再次記住，這些交易對手通常是世界上最大、最有信譽的交易對手。

And also in a number of our investments, we enjoy downside protection given the terms and the type of security we own in the capital structures.

而且，在我們的許多投資中，考慮到我們在資本結構中擁有的條款和證券類型，我們享有下行保護。

And then in terms of exposures, as you've heard from us on these calls, look, this theme is one that's really critical for us.

然後就曝光而言，正如您在這些電話會議中聽到的那樣，這個主題對我們來說確實至關重要。

It's an opportunity where, in our view, scale does matter.

我們認為，這是一個規模至關重要的機會。

So today, we have data center platforms in the US, Europe, Asia, Middle East.

所以今天，我們在美國、歐洲、亞洲、中東都有資料中心平台。

And on a 100% owned basis, total enterprise value here would be about $50 billion.

如果以 100% 控股計算，這裡的企業總價值約為 500 億美元。

So it's meaningful.

所以這是有意義的。

Now at the same time, we have a diversified approach to portfolio construction across our pools of capital, as you know.

同時，如您所知，我們在資金池中採取了多元化的投資組合建構方式。

So at 12/31, these investments are about 6% of our AUM across the infrastructure platform in total.

因此截至 12 月 31 日，這些投資約占我們整個基礎設施平台 AUM 總額的 6%。

So again, we expect this theme to continue to be really important for us.

因此，我們再次期望這個主題對我們來說繼續非常重要。

We'll continue to watch developments very closely.

我們將繼續密切關注事態發展。

I hope that's helpful.

我希望這有幫助。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Can you talk to the monetization environment and how you're thinking about that as we start 2025 and really how you see it progressing this year?

您能談談貨幣化環境嗎？

And what gives you confidence, which I assume is a bit more of a positive outlook on that activity level versus what we've seen in previous periods.

什麼讓你有信心呢？

Thanks for the question, Dan.

謝謝你的提問，丹。

We do see our monetizations up in 2025 relative to 2024 and looking at the environment today pretty comfortably.

我們確實看到我們的貨幣化在 2025 年相對於 2024 年有所上升，並且從今天的環境來看相當舒適。

Equity markets really conducive for that, equity values are high.

股票市場確實有利於實現這一點，股票價值很高。

Credit availability is very high, and spreads are really as tight as they've been in quite some time.

信貸可用性非常高，利差確實處於相當長一段時間以來的最低水平。

I also think it's probably helpful to look at some context around the overall monetization environment.

我也認為了解整體貨幣化環境的一些背景可能會有所幫助。

We've been monetizing at a pretty healthy pace even through what's been a more challenged time for our industry.

即使在我們這個行業面臨更大挑戰的時期，我們仍然以相當健康的速度獲利。

And so give you a data point, if you look at our LTM realized private equity carry, and this is a number as of 9/30.

因此，給您一個數據點，如果您查看我們的 LTM 實現的私募股權收益，這是截至 9 月 30 日的數字。

We were up 67%.

我們上漲了67%。

Our public peers were roughly flat.

我們的公眾同行大致持平。

And we think the industry is probably much more in line with our public peers.

我們認為該行業可能與我們的公眾同行更加一致。

And so I think you can see across the industry, maybe some client pressure to push unnaturally monetizations in 2025.

因此，我認為你可以看到，在整個行業中，也許一些客戶壓力會在 2025 年推動非自然的貨幣化。

I don't think that same dynamic exists here.

我不認為這裡有同樣的動態。

And so while we expect monetization to increase in 2025, we also expect monetization to continue to increase on the back of that in '26 and '27.

因此，雖然我們預計 2025 年貨幣化將會增加，但我們也預期 2026 年和 2027 年貨幣化將在此基礎上繼續增加。

So we'll see things can move around.

所以我們會看到事情會如何發展。

But we've got a very healthy portfolio.

但我們的投資組合非常健康。

As you know, our investment returns have been really strong. linear deployment as a key theme across the firm has really helped that.

如您所知，我們的投資回報非常豐厚。線性部署作為整個公司的關鍵主題確實起到了幫助作用。

We feel like we're as well positioned as we ever have been as evidenced by the embedded gains that sit on our balance sheet today, close to and approaching $16 billion, a high point for us.

我們感覺，我們的地位比以往任何時候都要好，今天我們資產負債表上的內含收益就證明了這一點，接近 160 億美元，這對我們來說是一個高點。

And so there's a lot here that gives us the confidence that you're going to see an uptick in monetization.

這裡有很多因素讓我們有信心，你會看到貨幣化的上升。

But you're going to need somewhat of a relative benign environment to be able to access that over time.

但您需要一個相對良好的環境才能隨著時間的推移訪問它。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just a question on asset-based finance.

這只是一個關於資產融資的問題。

I was hoping maybe you could update us on the platform today.

我希望您今天能向我們更新平台的最新情況。

The progress that you made over the past year.

你在過去的一年裡所取得的進步。

And as you look ahead to '25, just maybe you can give us a sense of some of the steps you guys are going to be taking to further expand the sourcing funnel and bank partnerships of the like -- how do you see that coming together?

展望2025年，您能否向我們介紹您將採取哪些措施進一步擴大採購管道和銀行合作夥伴關係等—您認為這些措施將如何實施？

And as you look out over the next couple of years, maybe you can kind of give us a little bit more of a flavor sense for how you see this evolving.

展望未來幾年，也許您可以向我們稍微描述一下您認為這一趨勢將如何發展。

Mike, it's Craig.

麥克，我是克雷格。

Why don't I start?

我為何不開始呢？

Look, glad you asked about.

瞧，很高興你問到。

So first, on page 13 of our release, this is a page that details of credit and liquid strategies.

首先，在我們發布的第 13 頁，這是一個詳細介紹信用和流動性策略的頁面。

We break out for that portion for us, our $276 billion or so of AUM.

我們將這部分資產管理規模分拆出來，約 2,760 億美元。

We started doing this second quarter of '23.

我們從23年第二季開始做這件事。

Obviously, we'll continue to do that.

顯然，我們會繼續這樣做。

So total credit AUM is about $250 billion.

因此，總信貸 AUM 約為 2500 億美元。

The private credit piece is about $110 billion.

私人信貸部分約1100億美元。

And of that $110 billion, we've got about $70 billion in asset-based finance.

在這 1100 億美元中，我們獲得了約 700 億美元的資產融資。

And another $40 billion in direct lending.

另外還有400億美元的直接貸款。

In asset-based finance those numbers continue to grow at a pretty impressive rate.

在資產融資方面，這些數字繼續以相當驚人的速度成長。

That compares to roughly [$50] at Q4 of '23.

相比之下，23 年第四季的價格約為 [50 美元]。

So we're up over 40% on a year-over-year business basis rather.

因此，我們的業務年增了 40% 以上。

So big businesses with healthy growth.

大企業能夠健康成長。

I think in terms of your question in the outlook, look, ABS is a massive market, $6 trillion on its way to $9 trillion.

我認為，就你關於前景的問題而言，ABS 是一個巨大的市場，規模將從 6 兆美元達到 9 兆美元。

In our view, you have high barriers to entry, a lack of scale capital and in our view, lots of folks leaving this market that's creating a void.

我們認為，進入門檻很高，缺乏規模資本，很多人正在離開這個市場，造成了空白。

So we're finding attractive risk reward.

因此，我們發現了具有吸引力的風險回報。

I think our clients like the diversification away from regular way corporate credit and I think the education that our clients have as it relates to asset-based finance just continues.

我認為我們的客戶喜歡擺脫常規公司信貸的多元化，而且我認為我們的客戶對資產融資的了解會持續下去。

It feels like we're in the early innings.

感覺我們才剛開始比賽。

In some ways, it feels as though it's like direct lending was three, five years ago.

從某種程度上來說，感覺就像三、五年前的直接貸款。

And we do think that by having global land fully integrated into everything that we're doing in the framework of the firm, this positions us really well for this opportunity.

我們確實認為，透過將全球土地完全融入我們在公司框架內所做的一切工作中，我們將能夠很好地抓住這一機會。

And I think as it relates to banks and bank partnerships, we see their activity -- we expect the broad trends to continue.

我認為，就銀行和銀行合作夥伴關係而言，我們看到了他們的活動——我們預計整體趨勢將會持續下去。

I think when we look overall in the industry, banks today are well capitalized and they have healthy liquidity, right?

我認為，當我們縱觀整個產業時，當今的銀行資本充足，流動性健康，對嗎？

Capital ratios are up.

資本充足率上升。

I know you know this very well.

我知道你非常清楚這一點。

What that brings to is a real focus on ROE and banks have a finite amount of risk-weighted assets to generate that ROE.

這真正引起了對 ROE 的關注，而銀行擁有有限數量的風險加權資產來產生 ROE。

So a bank can be an excellent originator.

因此，銀行可以成為優秀的發起人。

But if there aren't additional economics, if they aren't recurring fees or other revenues, they may not be an excellent holder.

但如果沒有額外的經濟效益，如果沒有經常性費用或其他收入，他們可能不是一個優秀的持有者。

And that creates opportunities for us.

這為我們創造了機會。

Because as banks make these decisions and how and where they're going to allocate their [RWA], some business lines are going to be kept, they're going to be optimized, they're going to be scaled, and others are going to be shed.

因為當銀行做出這些決定以及如何以及在何處分配他們的 [RWA] 時，一些業務線將被保留，它們將進行優化，它們將進行擴展，而其他業務線將被剝離。

And in some ways, it almost feels like there isn't much of it in between.

從某種程度上來說，幾乎感覺不到兩者之間有什麼差別。

And so this dynamic in our view, isn't going to change.

因此，我們認為這種動態不會改變。

Now maybe we see a little less SRT activity at the margin, but the broad trends, again, aren't changing, lots of continued opportunity for us.

現在我們可能會看到邊緣的 SRT 活動有所減少，但整體趨勢並沒有改變，我們仍然有很多機會。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

So I wanted to ask a question on the fundraising outlook.

所以我想問一個關於募款前景的問題。

Asked a similar one last quarter.

上個季度問過一個類似的問題。

But Scott, just borrowing from the running analogy, you noted that you guys achieved $114 billion of fundraising and that was with little contribution from flagships and some tougher market conditions.

但是斯科特，借用跑步類比，你指出你們實現了 1140 億美元的籌款，而且這還僅僅是在旗艦店貢獻很小並且市場條件較為嚴峻的情況下實現的。

So given the upcoming fundraising super cycle in '25, some better conditions you cited, I was hoping you could frame the upside potential versus that $100 billion fundraising target and the sustainability of some of the drivers of strength in '24, whether that should continue into '25.

因此，考慮到即將到來的'25 年籌款超級週期以及您所提到的一些更好的條件，我希望您能夠描述出相對於 1000 億美元籌款目標的上行潛力以及'24 年一些強勁驅動因素的可持續性，以及這種趨勢是否會持續到'25 年。

Yeah.

是的。

I'll try, Steven.

我會盡力的，史蒂文。

We don't -- as you know, we don't put out specific numbers on this.

如你所知，我們不會公佈這方面的具體數字。

We had shared at our Investor Day $300 billion-plus over the course of '24 to '26.

在投資者日上，我們分享了 2024 年至 2026 年期間超過 3,000 億美元的投資。

We're still very comfortable with those numbers and the plus after them.

我們對這些數字以及後面的加號仍然非常滿意。

In terms of the sustainability of the drivers, I think part of the reason that you're hearing the optimism in our voices is we think number of things you saw last year are sustainable into this year.

就驅動因素的可持續性而言，我認為您聽到我們聲音中的樂觀情緒的部分原因是我們認為去年看到的許多事情在今年可以持續。

So Global Atlantic continuing to grow.

因此 Global Atlantic 繼續發展。

Institutions being more aggressive around deploying capital and now that they're getting more capital back.

各機構在部署資本方面更加積極，現在它們正在獲得更多的資本。

We've seen that continue across areas like private credit and infrastructure.

我們看到這種情況在私人信貸和基礎設施等領域持續存在。

We're seeing more optimism across private equity now.

我們現在看到私募股權投資領域更加樂觀。

And I'd say there's a more universal view that real estate equity, which had been out of favor has bottomed.

我想說，更普遍的觀點是，曾經不受歡迎的房地產股票已經觸底。

And so there's more interest in that asset class as well that's just emerging.

因此，人們對該資產類別的興趣也正在增加。

So a continuation of what we saw last year and frankly, a bit more optimism and momentum than we had last year.

因此，這是我們去年所看到的情況的延續，坦白說，比去年更加樂觀，勢頭更猛。

Private wealth, Capital Group gaining momentum.

私人財富，資本集團蓄勢待發。

Capital Group just starting out.

資本集團剛起步。

And so you kind of put all that together and say everything we saw last year, we expect will continue or improve over the course of this year and next.

所以，把所有這些放在一起，我們預計去年看到的一切將在今年和明年繼續或改善。

And then on top of that, to your point, you've got the flagship funds that are going to be in the market for a greater percentage of the year.

除此之外，正如您所說，您還擁有旗艦基金，這些基金將在一年中的大部分時間進入市場。

And so when we put all that together, and that's part of the reason that you're hearing us be more upbeat about what we're seeing.

所以，當我們把所有這些放在一起時，這就是您聽到我們對所看到的事情更加樂觀的原因之一。

And we think all of that gets fed by the monetization environment improving.

我們認為所有這些都受到貨幣化環境改善的推動。

As people get more money back, they're going to look to deploy.

隨著人們收回更多的錢，他們會考慮部署。

So we managed to raise the [$114 billion] was our second best year ever, frankly, with a backdrop that was imperfect.

因此，我們成功籌集了 1140 億美元，坦白說，這是我們有史以來第二好的一年，儘管背景並不完美。

And we think when we look at everything that I just mentioned, it feels like we're going up.

我們認為，當我們回顧我剛才提到的一切時，感覺我們正在上升。

I can't give you a number as to where it goes.

我無法告訴你它去了哪裡。

But if we execute and the environment stays as we expect, we think you'll continue to see increased momentum.

但如果我們執行並且環境保持如我們預期的那樣，我們認為您將繼續看到成長的勢頭。

Only thing I'd add a couple of fun facts, just on this.

我只想補充一些有趣的事實，僅此而已。

The first relates to the breadth of the platform.

第一個與平台的廣度有關。

So if you add up the capital we raised in '24 in our more traditional private equity strategies, so mid-market PE, Americas [PE] series, that represented 5% of the new capital we raised across the firm.

因此，如果把我們在 24 年透過更傳統的私募股權策略籌集的資金加起來，那麼中型市場 PE、美洲 [PE] 系列，占我們整個公司籌集的新資本的 5%。

It's an interesting statistic.

這是一個有趣的統計數據。

Now to be clear, we feel great about the work done across all of those initiatives.

現在可以明確地說，我們對所有這些舉措所做的工作感到非常滿意。

But I think it speaks to the development and growth across KKR.

但我認為這體現了 KKR 的發展和成長。

And in contrast, 85% of the capital we raised came from our credit and real assets businesses where we think there's a lot more running room as well.

相較之下，我們籌集的 85% 的資金來自信貸和實體資產業務，我們認為這些業務還有更大的營運空間。

And then the second piece relates to innovation.

第二部分與創新有關。

Again, two-thirds of the capital raised in 2024 were in strategies that didn't exist within KKR five years ago and with opportunities for us in things like the capital group, knock on wood, there will be an opportunity for that to continue to grow.

再說一次，2024 年籌集的資金中有三分之二是用於五年前 KKR 內部尚不存在的策略，而且我們在資本集團等方面有機會，敲敲木頭，將有機會繼續增長。

And we did speak at our Investor Day, I know you'll remember about the maturation and the continuing maturation of our strategies in claims.

我們確實在投資者日上發表過講話，我知道您會記得我們的索賠策略的成熟和持續成熟。

So again, just thought some of those statistics would be interesting.

所以，我再說一遍，我只是覺得其中一些統計數據會很有趣。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克布朗。

Got some questions on the performance on slide 10.

對幻燈片 10 上的表現有一些疑問。

I just wanted to ask about the 0% return or kind of the flat return quarter over quarter for the traditional PE full-year result that 14% is certainly good.

我只是想問一下，對於傳統 PE 全年業績而言，0% 的回報率或季度環比持平的回報率，14% 肯定是不錯的。

But I guess why flat quarter over quarter, was there something to call out that drove that?

但我想，為什麼季度環比持平，是否有什麼原因導致了這種情況？

And then does the buyout land, the trend of public to private has certainly been a very popular theme.

然後是土地收購，土地私有化趨勢當然是一個非常受歡迎的主題。

How are you thinking about opportunities here?

您如何看待這裡的機會？

And what are some of the key themes you're leaning into now?

您現在關注的一些關鍵主題是什麼？

Mike, why don't I start?

麥克，我先開始吧？

Look, I think in many ways, Q4 evidence of the difficulty looking at big broad indices.

我認為，從許多方面來看，第四季的證據表明，觀察大盤指數有困難。

So S&P was up 2.5% in Q4.

因此標準普爾指數第四季上漲了2.5%。

And look, the average market cap S&P name is about $110 billion.

標準普爾指數公司的平均市值約為 1100 億美元。

I think in contrast, if you look at the Russell 2000, which in many ways is a lot more representative of the companies and portfolios and opportunities that we're pursuing, it was flat in the quarter, and that dynamic is one that's even greater when you look over the course of calendar '24, S&P was up 25% and the Russell was up 11.5%.

我認為，相較之下，如果你看看羅素 2000 指數，它在許多方面更能代表我們所追求的公司、投資組合和機會，它在本季度持平，而當你回顧 24 日曆年時，這種動態甚至更為顯著，標準普爾指數上漲了 25%，羅素指數上漲了 11.5%。

So I think to the heart of your question, we actually feel -- it's tough to look at these performance numbers over any 90-day period and draw any broad conclusions, but we continue to feel really good about broad execution in the traditional PE part of our business.

所以我認為，對於你問題的核心，我們實際上感覺——很難通過任何 90 天的時間來查看這些績效數字並得出任何廣泛的結論，但我們仍然對我們業務中傳統 PE 部分的廣泛執行情況感到非常滿意。

I think that's true in '24, and I think that's true more broadly looking across vintages.

我認為在 24 年確實如此，而且我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，這也是正確的。

Yeah.

是的。

And the second part of your question, Mike, I'd say I'd broaden it.

麥克，關於你問題的第二部分，我想擴大它的範圍。

Yes, there's opportunity in public to private space and there's just a lot of dispersion in the market.

是的，從公共空間到私人空間都存在著機會，而且市場上的分散性很強。

There are some industries that are getting a lot of attention.

有些行業正受到廣泛關注。

But if you're a smaller market cap company, a lot of what we're doing is $1 billion to $5 billion you don't get the same attention from the analyst community, from the investor community, you can get a little left behind it.

但如果你是一家市值較小的公司，我們所做的許多投資都在 10 億到 50 億美元之間，那麼你就不會得到分析師群體和投資者群體的同樣關注，你可能會落後一點。

And we're finding a number of management teams that just are not enjoying quarter-to-quarter reality.

我們發現許多管理團隊並不滿意季度間的實際情況。

And so we continue to see that as a big opportunity for us globally, which I'll come back to.

因此，我們繼續將此視為我們全球範圍內的一個巨大機遇，我稍後會繼續討論這個主題。

I would also point to not just that type of transaction, I'd say corporate carve-outs, strategics want to have simple stories.

我還要指出的是，不只是這種類型的交易，我認為企業剝離、策略制定都希望有簡單的故事。

And so if they've got something that's creating some complexity and operating subsidiary that maybe doesn't fit their current narrative, they're looking to sell those.

因此，如果他們擁有的某些東西產生了一些複雜性，而經營的子公司可能不符合他們目前的敘述，那麼他們就會考慮出售它們。

And that's actually been our best performing type of investment in private equity over our nearly 49-year history is corporate carve-out.

在我們近 49 年的發展歷程中，企業分拆實際上是我們在私募股權投資中表現最好的投資類型。

So we're seeing opportunities there.

因此我們在那裡看到了機會。

I think you're also going to see more sponsor-to-sponsor activity as sponsors look to give capital back to their LPs in this environment.

我認為，您還將看到更多的贊助商對贊助商的活動，因為在這種環境下，贊助商希望將資本返還給他們的 LP。

And as I mentioned, this really is a global set of opportunities.

正如我所提到的，這確實是一系列全球性的機會。

So Japan, we've been particularly active in a market that continues to open up.

因此，我們在日本這個不斷開放的市場中特別活躍。

Europe is relatively cheap number of companies based there that had global operations that are maybe trading at a European discount today.

歐洲的價格相對較低，許多總部位於歐洲且開展全球業務的公司如今可能以歐洲折扣價進行交易。

So there's lots of different ways for us to express these views around the world.

因此，我們可以透過多種不同的方式在世界各地表達這些觀點。

But let me stop there.

但讓我就此打住。

But we do see the deployment opportunity is very attractive.

但我們確實看到部署機會非常有吸引力。

Great.

偉大的。

Scott.

斯科特。

And thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

I definitely understand that the quarterly moves are just one data point about the bigger trend.

我當然明白季度走勢只是更大趨勢的數據點。

So thank you for that.

非常感謝你。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Vikram Gandhi, HSBC.

維克拉姆甘地 (Vikram Gandhi)，匯豐銀行。

My question is really related to GA.

我的問題確實與 GA 有關。

Looking at the growth in the adjusted book value versus the operating earnings, it appears that the group has been injecting about $400 million of capital each quarter last year.

從調整後的帳面價值相對於營業收入的成長來看，該集團去年每季似乎都注入了約 4 億美元的資本。

The impression I had was that GA was quite well capitalized even considering a reasonable growth.

我的印像是，即使考慮到合理的成長，GA 的資本也相當充足。

So I wondered how should we think about the growth going forward in the earnings run rate for 2025?

所以我想知道我們應該如何看待2025年獲利運行率的成長？

Yeah, great.

是的，很棒。

Thanks, Vikram.

謝謝，維克拉姆。

I'll handle both those questions.

我會處理這兩個問題。

So first thing, the capital contributed in the course of 2024.

因此，首先，是在 2024 年期間投入的資本。

Some of that capital was contributed as part of the original transaction when we funded in early January.

其中部分資金是我們在一月初融資時作為原始交易的一部分注入的。

And then we also said at the time that we were going to look across the KKR balance sheet on the asset management side to see what assets could be really conducive to an insurance company balance sheet, so what you also see is some contribution in kind, some investments that fit frankly, better on an insurance company balance sheet.

然後我們當時也說過，我們將從資產管理方面審視 KKR 的資產負債表，看看哪些資產真正有利於保險公司的資產負債表，所以你還會看到一些實物貢獻，一些坦白說更適合保險公司資產負債表的投資。

As it relates to performance, let me reiterate and go back to what Scott said in the prepared remarks, we're feeling great about how our teams are coordinating today, the opportunity in front of us.

至於表現，讓我重申並回到斯科特在準備好的發言中所說的話，我們對我們團隊今天的協調方式以及擺在我們面前的機會感到非常高興。

I was all the ingredients that reside inside of our broader firm today to continue to build what we think is a really unique and highly profitable insurance franchise.

我擁有我們公司目前所有的內部資源，可以繼續建立我們認為真正獨特且利潤豐厚的保險特許經營權。

And we've also talked about evolving our approach a bit, and then you're seeing that play out through the P&L.

我們也談到了對我們的方法進行一些改進，然後您可以透過損益表看到這一點。

And what that means is on behalf of our clients, we are taking on longer-dated liabilities, so elongating our liability profile.

這意味著我們代表客戶承擔較長期的債務，從而延長我們的負債期限。

As part of that, we're doing a bit more on the private side, really taking advantage for the first time the full breadth of KKR's investment suite.

作為其中的一部分，我們在私人領域做了更多工作，首次真正充分利用了 KKR 的全部投資資源。

And so what you're going to see, we believe, is definitely, if we perform, and we've got confidence we'll definitely better P&L outcomes and ROEs over time from this evolved shift.

因此，我們相信，如果我們表現出色，您肯定會看到，並且我們有信心，隨著時間的推移，透過這種演變，我們肯定會獲得更好的損益結果和淨資產收益率。

But very intentionally, we're bringing down ROE and the accounting P&L as we transition.

但在轉型過程中，我們有意降低 ROE 和會計損益表。

And the reason for that is many of the privates that we are doing and where we've got really differentiated origination capabilities, they've got modest yields and in some cases, no yields.

原因在於，我們進行的許多私人項目以及我們擁有真正差異化的發起能力的項目，都只獲得了適中的收益，在某些情況下，甚至沒有收益。

And so we feel good about the underlying economics even at the time when naturally, you're going to see subdued accounting P&L.

因此，即使在會計損益表自然會低迷的情況下，我們對潛在的經濟狀況仍然感到滿意。

And so to be clear, we would expect over the next couple of quarters to have insurance operating earnings that is plus or minus where we were in Q4 and that is the expectation as we make the shift.

因此需要明確的是，我們預計未來幾季的保險營業利潤將在第四季的基礎上有所增減，這是我們進行轉變時的預期。

But at the same time, the underlying economics of what we are doing, we feel good about it.

但同時，我們對所做之事背後的經濟效益感到十分滿意。

And as we perform, it's going to show up in the P&L over time.

隨著我們的表現，它將隨著時間的推移體現在損益表中。

Chris Kotowski, Oppenheimer & Company.

奧本海默公司的克里斯‧科托斯基 (Chris Kotowski)。

Yes.

是的。

I was just wondering if you could expand on the question you had earlier about the flagship private equity funds.

我只是想知道您是否可以詳細闡述您之前關於旗艦私募股權基金的問題。

And I guess just I'm looking at Infrastructure V and the Global Climate Fund, there are still raising money, but don't look like they've made investments yet.

我想，就我所看到的基礎設施 V 和全球氣候基金而言，他們仍在籌集資金，但看起來他們還沒有投資。

And I'm wondering how long is that investment period open?

我想知道投資期間有多長？

And should we expect kind of meaningful catch-up fees there at some point?

我們是否應該期待在某個時候出現某種有意義的補繳費用？

And then on Europe and Asia, those funds look like they're roughly half called when should we expect fundraising to commence for those successor funds?

然後在歐洲和亞洲，這些基金看起來大約有一半已經被募集，我們什麼時候可以預期這些後續基金會開始募款？

Chris, it's Craig.

克里斯，我是克雷格。

Why don't I start?

我為何不開始呢？

Look, I think we've got a very healthy pipeline in terms of individual funds and strategies that we are fundraising for Infra strategy continues to be a front-burner topic for us as of 12/31, we raised last one was

就個人基金和策略而言，我們有一個非常健康的管道，我們正在為基礎設施策略籌集資金，截至 12 月 31 日，這仍然是我們的首要任務，我們最近籌集的資金是

[17].

[17]。

So we feel great about progress.

因此，我們對進展感到非常高興。

We did turn that fund on in the middle of last year.

我們確實在去年年中啟動了該基金。

So that is something where you're seeing management fees.

這就是您所看到的管理費。

We do expect also to launch fundraising for our Asia infrastructure strategy here shortly.

我們也確實希望很快在這裡啟動我們亞洲基礎設施策略的融資。

So more to come as it relates to businesses that in particular, we think there's a real big opportunity for us to grow, build and scale at the same time.

因此，關於業務方面，我們認為未來還有更多的工作要做，這對於我們同時發展、建造和擴大規模是一個真正的巨大機會。

So it's just tough on individual funds to parse through.

因此，分析單一基金是非常困難的。

I think the one other reminder when you look at the fund table, we will often draw -- when we make an investment and draw capital under capital call line that's paid back typically in 180 days or less.

我認為，當您查看基金表時，另一個提醒是，我們通常會提取 - 當我們進行投資並在資本調用額度下提取資本時，通常會在 180 天或更短的時間內償還。

So when you actually look at those deployment figures, they often are understated relative to capital as we look at the available capital that's remaining.

因此，當您實際查看這些部署數字時，我們會發現它們相對於資本而言通常被低估了，因為我們查看的是剩餘的可用資本。

And then the second dynamic there is if we have a platform build, again, that and something where we expect to invest capital over a multiyear period of time, and if the first piece of that has been called only that first piece shows up in that invested line.

然後第二個動態是如果我們有一個平台構建，同樣，這是我們預計在多年的時間內投資資本的東西，並且如果其中的第一部分已經被調用，那麼只有第一部分才會出現在那條投資線上。

So I think just overall, when you're looking at the funds and the status where we are, and how close we are to whether it's fundraising or turning on a fund, the numbers that you would -- or the percentage figures that you would be looking at in terms of that table, if anything tend to be understated.

因此我認為總體而言，當你查看基金和我們所處的狀況，以及我們距離籌集資金或啟動基金還有多遠時，你所看到的數字——或者你在表格中看到的百分比數字，如果有的話，往往會被低估。

Yeah.

是的。

The only thing I'd add Chris, is you're right to observe that we're in the market with a number of these strategies still today, including infra and climate.

克里斯，我唯一想補充的是，你觀察到的是正確的，今天我們市場上仍然有許多這樣的策略，包括基礎設施和氣候。

You got North American private equity, Europe private equity to follow.

你可以關注北美私募股權、歐洲私募股權。

And Asia probably before Europe would be my guess and just in terms of sequencing.

我猜亞洲可能先於歐洲，這只是從順序來看。

So we'll keep you posted in future quarters as we launch those incremental strategies.

因此，當我們推出這些增量策略時，我們將在未來幾季及時向您通報最新情況。

I think the bigger, higher level point though, these last two years, we raised $183 billion.

我認為更大、更高層次的觀點是，過去兩年，我們籌集了 1,830 億美元。

Give or take, only about 10% of that was from flagship farms.

大約只有 10% 來自旗艦農場。

So the point from the prior discussion, it should be quite additive as we head into the next couple of years.

因此，從前面的討論來看，隨著我們進入未來幾年，它應該會具有相當強的附加價值。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特 (Patrick Davitt)，自主研究。

Just quickly back on the monetization theme.

快速回到貨幣化主題。

Could you give the usual visible realized cash flow stat that you give?

您能提供通常可見的實際現金流量統計資料嗎？

And then more broadly, another firm made it pretty clear, I think, last week that they thought this monetization theme was more a second half event it sounds like today, you might think the situation is different for KKR.

更廣泛地說，我認為，另一家公司上週明確表示，他們認為這個貨幣化主題更像是下半年的事件，從今天來看，你可能會認為 KKR 的情況有所不同。

Is that the case?

是嗎？

Or do you agree it could be more of a second half event?

或者您同意這可能更像是下半年的事件？

Yeah.

是的。

Patrick, just in terms of timing, I think things will be pretty fluid here.

派翠克，就時間而言，我認為事情會非常順利。

So it's hard to pinpoint it in any half of the year.

因此很難在一年中的任何半年內確定這一點。

I'll reiterate our expectation is that we do expect monetizations to be up for us in '25 versus '24 based on the current market conditions.

我重申我們的預期，根據目前的市場狀況，我們確實預計25 年我們的貨幣化水準將比24 年有所上升。

As it relates to a specific question on visibility that we have, we've got approaching $400 million of that high visibility revenue, things that have already been signed up or announced.

至於我們關於知名度的一個具體問題，我們已經獲得了接近 4 億美元的高知名度收入，這些收入已經簽署或宣布。

Just based on regulatory approvals, unclear that all hits in Q1.

僅基於監管部門的批准，尚不清楚第一季是否全部實現。

So pretty good visibility as we head into the year.

因此，當我們進入新的一年時，我們的能見度相當高。

You typically see this period of time where pipelines are rebuilding after deals get closed -- tried to get closed by year-end.

你通常會看到在交易結束後的這段時間內管道正在重建——試圖在年底前完成。

Of course, five weeks into the quarter and our pipelines are pretty strong right now.

當然，本季已經過去五週了，我們的通路目前相當強勁。

So we'll see what transpires for the quarter and we'll keep you guys abreast.

因此，我們將關注本季發生的情況，並向大家通報最新情況。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

問答環節已經結束。

I'd now like to turn the call back over to Craig Larson for closing comments.

現在我想將電話轉回給 Craig Larson 來做最後評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we'd just like to thank everybody for your continued attention and interest in KKR, and we look forward to giving everybody the next update in 90 days or so.

我們也要感謝大家對 KKR 的持續關注和興趣，我們期待在大約 90 天後向大家提供下一次更新。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

您現在可以斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。