KKR & Co Inc (KKR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to KKR's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 KKR 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this conference is being recorded.

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now hand the call over to Craig Larson, Partner, Head Investor Relations for KKR. Craig, please go ahead.

我現在會把電話轉給 KKR 合夥人兼投資者關係主管 Craig Larson。克雷格，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, as usual, I'm joined by Rob Lewin, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Nuttall, our Co-Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上，像往常一樣，我們的財務長 Rob Lewin 也加入了我的行列。和我們的聯合執行長 Scott Nuttall。

We'd like to remind everyone that we will refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release, which is available on the Investor Center section at kkr.com. And as a reminder, we report our segment numbers on an adjusted share basis.

我們想提醒大家，我們將在電話會議中提及非 GAAP 衡量標準，這些衡量標準與我們新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，該新聞稿可在 kkr.com 的投資者中心部分獲取。提醒一下，我們在調整後的份額基礎上報告我們的部門數據。

This call will contain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for cautionary factors about these statements.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，不保證未來的事件或績效。請參閱我們的收益發布和向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解有關這些聲明的警示因素。

And as a reminder, our earnings release and our financial reporting for Q4 is consistent with past quarters. Beginning in Q1 of 2024, our earnings release will reflect the segment and financial metric changes we announced on November 29.

提醒一下，我們第四季的收益發布和財務報告與過去幾季保持一致。從 2024 年第一季開始，我們的收益發布將反映我們於 11 月 29 日宣布的部門和財務指標變化。

Turning now to our numbers for the quarter. We're pleased to be reporting strong fourth quarter results with fee-related earnings per share of $0.76. This is a record figure for KKR, up 21% from Q3 2023 as well as Q4 of 2022. After-tax distributable earnings came in at $1 per share. New capital raised in the quarter was $31 billion, which is also particularly strong. So overall, a really solid quarter for us.

現在轉向我們本季的數據。我們很高興報告第四季度強勁的業績，與費用相關的每股收益為 0.76 美元。這是 KKR 的創紀錄數字，較 2023 年第三季和 2022 年第四季成長 21%。稅後可分配收益為每股 1 美元。本季新籌集的資金為 310 億美元，也特別強勁。總的來說，這對我們來說是一個非常穩定的季度。

I'll begin this morning by walking through our financials in a little more detail. So management fees in the quarter were $785 million, that's up 3.4% compared to just last quarter with growth across all of our business lines. And comparing full-year '23 to 2022, management fees grew 14%. We reported double-digit percentage annual growth in our management fees for several consecutive years now.

今天早上我將首先詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。因此，本季的管理費為 7.85 億美元，與上季相比成長了 3.4%，我們所有業務線都在成長。與 2023 年全年相比，管理費增加了 14%。我們的管理費連續幾年以兩位數的年增長率成長。

Net transaction and monitoring fees were $264 million in the quarter. Capital Markets transaction fees, in particular, were quite strong in Q4 with $225 million of revenue. That was driven by an increase in investment activity and financing transactions at several of our PE and Core PE portfolio companies. So in total, fee-related revenues for the quarter were $1.1 billion, up 17% on a year-over-year basis so compared to Q4 of 2022.

本季淨交易和監控費用為 2.64 億美元。尤其是第四季度，資本市場交易費用相當強勁，營收達 2.25 億美元。這是由我們的幾家私募股權和核心私募股權投資組合公司的投資活動和融資交易增加所推動的。因此，本季與費用相關的總收入為 11 億美元，與 2022 年第四季相比年增 17%。

Turning to expenses. Fee-related compensation, as usual, was at the midpoint of our guided range at 22.5% of fee-related revenues for the quarter as well as for the year. Other operating expenses were $156 million. So in total, fee-related earnings were $675 million or $0.76 per share. As I mentioned just a moment ago, this was a record FRE quarter for us. And this growth really highlights in our view, the continued strength as well as the diversification that you're seeing across the firm.

轉向開支。與往常一樣，與費用相關的薪酬處於我們指導範圍的中點，佔本季和全年與費用相關的收入的 22.5%。其他營運費用為 1.56 億美元。因此，與費用相關的收益總計為 6.75 億美元，即每股 0.76 美元。正如我剛才提到的，對我們來說，這是創紀錄的 FRE 季度。在我們看來，這種成長確實凸顯了整個公司的持續實力和多元化。

Our FRE margin in the quarter came in at 63%. And on a per share basis, FRE was $2.68 for the year.

本季我們的 FRE 利潤率為 63%。以每股計算，當年的 FRE 為 2.68 美元。

Turning now to realization activity. For the quarter, we generated $411 million of realized performance income. This was driven by multiple successful sales across our traditional private equity and core businesses, with realized incentive fees driven by Marshall Wace in the fourth quarter. Realized investment income in the quarter was $147 million. So together, monetizations were $558 million. In total, Asset Management operating earnings were $970 million.

現在轉向實現活動。本季度，我們實現了 4.11 億美元的已實現績效收入。這是由於我們傳統私募股權和核心業務的多次成功銷售以及馬歇爾·韋斯 (Marshall Wace) 在第四季度推動的已實現激勵費用推動的。該季度實現的投資收入為 1.47 億美元。因此，貨幣化總額為 5.58 億美元。資產管理部門的營業利潤總計為 9.7 億美元。

Moving to our Insurance segment. Performance continued to be strong in the quarter with $231 million of pretax earnings, that's up 10% quarter-over-quarter. This was the result of stronger net inflows across both the institutional and individual channels as well as variable investment income from the sale of a solo developer that generated $16 million of insurance segment pretax operating earnings. So in total, after-tax DE was $888 million or $1 per share. In comparison with the prior quarter, that figure was up 14%.

轉向我們的保險部門。本季業績持續強勁，稅前收益為 2.31 億美元，季增 10%。這是機構和個人管道淨流入增加以及出售獨立開發商帶來的可變投資收入的結果，該開發商產生了 1600 萬美元的保險部門稅前營業利潤。因此，稅後 DE 總計為 8.88 億美元，即每股 1 美元。與上一季相比，這一數字成長了 14%。

Next, turning to investment performance. You can see this on Page 7 of the earnings release. The private equity portfolio appreciated 3% in the quarter and 16% in the year. In Real Assets, the opportunistic real estate portfolio was down 1% in the quarter and down 2% for the year. Infrastructure was up 5% in the quarter and up 18% for the year. So very strong broad performance across our infrastructure platforms. And in credit, the leverage credit composite was up 3%, and the alternative credit composite was up 2%. And over the year, performance here was up 14% and 10%, respectively.

接下來，轉向投資績效。您可以在收益發布的第 7 頁上看到這一點。私募股權投資組合本季升值 3%，全年升值 16%。在實體資產方面，機會主義房地產投資組合本季下降 1%，全年下降 2%。基礎設施本季成長 5%，全年成長 18%。我們的基礎設施平台表現非常強勁。信貸方面，槓桿信貸綜合上漲 3%，另類信貸綜合上漲 2%。一年來，這裡的業績分別成長了 14% 和 10%。

And finally, consistent with our historical practice, we are intending to increase our annual dividend from $0.66 to $0.70 per share, which we anticipate will go into effect alongside first quarter 2024 earnings.

最後，根據我們的歷史慣例，我們打算將年度股息從每股 0.66 美元增加到 0.70 美元，我們預計這將與 2024 年第一季收益一起生效。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Rob.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給羅布。

Thanks a lot, Craig, and good morning, everyone. First, looking at our key operating metrics. New capital raise totaled $31 billion for the quarter. These results are quite strong and encouraging for us as we head into 2024. Credit and liquid strategies made up about 2/3 of the capital we raised this quarter as our business has grown with Global Atlantic as a significant partner. GA in particular, had record inflows in the quarter, both overall and specifically from the individual channel. So activity here continues to be very strong.

非常感謝，克雷格，大家早安。首先，看看我們的關鍵營運指標。本季新融資總額達 310 億美元。在我們邁入2024 年之際，這些結果非常強勁，對我們來說令人鼓舞。信貸和流動性策略約占我們本季度籌集的資本的2/3，因為我們的業務在Global Atlantic 作為重要合作夥伴的幫助下不斷增長。特別是 GA，本季的資金流入量創歷史新高，無論是整體流入量或具體通路的流入量。因此這裡的活動仍然非常強勁。

Block activity at GA is also active. As you know, the MetLife block closed in the quarter and the Manulife block transaction is expected to close sometime in the first half of 2024. And similar to prior blocks, GA continues to be very capital efficient here, contributing approximately 25% of the equity in both transactions, with 75% of the capital coming from IV vehicles and additional co-investors. So 75% from third parties, where we can earn management fees and of the opportunity for performance income as well.

GA 的區塊活動也很活躍。如您所知，MetLife 區塊已於本季結束，Manulife 區塊交易預計將在2024 年上半年的某個時間完成。與先前的區塊類似，GA 在這裡仍然保持著非常高的資本效率，貢獻了約25% 的股權在這兩項交易中，75%的資金來自 IV 工具和其他聯合投資者。因此，75% 來自第三方，我們可以從中賺取管理費以及績效收入的機會。

Over the past year, new capital raise totaled right around $70 billion. And looking post 12/31, we just announced the final close in Asia infrastructure II at approximately $6.4 billion, over 65% larger than the previous fund. Of note, more than half of the capital came from new investors to the Asia infrastructure platform. With this successful fundraise, we are clearly the largest infrastructure fund in the region, enhancing our Asia positioning more broadly.

過去一年，新融資總額約 700 億美元。展望 12 月 31 日，我們剛剛宣布亞洲基礎設施 II 的最終收盤價約為 64 億美元，比之前的基金多出 65% 以上。值得注意的是，一半以上的資金來自亞洲基礎設施平台的新投資者。透過這次成功的融資，我們顯然是該地區最大的基礎設施基金，從而更廣泛地增強了我們在亞洲的地位。

And as we look out over the next 12 months and into 2025, a number of our flagship funds will be raising capital as well. So we continue to expect an acceleration in our fundraising from here.

展望未來 12 個月乃至 2025 年，我們的部分旗艦基金也將籌集資金。因此，我們繼續預計我們的籌款工作將從這裡開始加速。

Turning to capital invested. We've deployed $16 billion in the quarter and $44 billion for the year. Capital invested was really diversified across private equity, real assets and credit and liquid strategies in the year as U.S. private equity and core private equity deployment rebounded in the quarter. Of particular note, we made investments in 3 take-private transactions in Q4. And with almost $100 billion of uncalled capital, we continue to be well positioned for the deployment opportunities that are ahead.

轉向資本投資。我們本季部署了 160 億美元，全年部署了 440 億美元。隨著本季美國私募股權和核心私募股權部署的反彈，今年投資的資本在私募股權、實體資產以及信貸和流動性策略方面確實實現了多元化。特別值得注意的是，我們在第四季度投資了 3 筆私有化交易。憑藉近 1000 億美元的未調用資本，我們將繼續為未來的部署機會做好準備。

I wanted to briefly shift now to a reflection on our progress through the course of 2023. Our assets under management now total $553 billion. That's up 10% compared to the end of 2022, with sizable capital raised in the past year. Fee paying AUM now stands at almost $450 billion. Given our consistent growth in fee-paying AUM, management fees increased 14% in 2023, with line of sight of future growth from approximately $40 billion of committed capital that becomes fee-paying as it's invested or when it enters its investment period, and that's at a weighted average rate of just over 90 basis points.

我現在想簡要回顧一下我們在 2023 年所取得的進展。我們管理的資產目前總計 5,530 億美元。與 2022 年底相比，這一數字成長了 10%，去年籌集了大量資金。付費資產管理規模目前接近 4,500 億美元。鑑於我們付費資產管理規模的持續成長，管理費在 2023 年成長了 14%，預計未來成長的承諾資本約為 400 億美元，這些資本在投資時或進入投資期間時將成為付費資本，這就是加權平均利率略高於90個基點。

And while realized performance and investment income was more muted in 2023, given the environment, our forward visibility has increased meaningfully year-over-year. Total embedded gains were $12.3 billion at year-end. That reflects embedded gains on our balance sheet plus gross on realized carried interest. This was up almost 40% compared to Q4 of 2022. The opportunity for future investing revenue remains robust. And strategically, we made a lot of progress in 2023.

儘管 2023 年實現的業績和投資收入更加疲弱，但考慮到當前的環境，我們的前瞻性能見度比去年同期顯著提高。截至年底，隱含收益總額為 123 億美元。這反映了我們資產負債表上的內含收益加上已實現的附帶利息總額。與 2022 年第四季相比，這一數字成長了近 40%。未來投資收入的機會仍然強勁。從戰略上講，我們在 2023 年取得了很大進展。

As you likely know, we announced 4 key initiatives towards the end of November. As an update, on January 2, we closed on our acquisition of the remaining stake in Global Atlantic for approximately $2.6 billion in cash. We believe this acquisition will create more value for policyholders and shareholders, and are excited to unlock future potential together.

您可能知道，我們在 11 月底宣布了 4 項關鍵措施。作為更新，1 月 2 日，我們以約 26 億美元現金完成了對 Global Atlantic 剩餘股權的收購。我們相信這項收購將為保單持有人和股東創造更多價值，並很高興能夠共同釋放未來的潛力。

Concurrent with the closing of GA, we have created a new strategic holding segment, which you will see in our Q1 2024 earnings release. Here, the segment operating earnings will be driven by cash dividends from our Core PE portfolio.

在 GA 結束的同時，我們創建了一個新的策略控股部門，您將在我們的 2024 年第一季財報發布中看到這個部門。在這裡，該部門的營業收入將由我們核心私募股權投資組合的現金股利驅動。

We also revised our compensation ratios, which similarly will be reflected in our Q1 financials, delivering more FRE to our shareholders and driving even more alignment between our compensation model and the outcomes of our clients.

我們也修改了薪酬比率，這也將反映在我們第一季的財務數據中，為我們的股東提供更多的 FRE，並推動我們的薪酬模式與客戶結果之間更加一致。

Combining these aspects, we will be introducing a new reporting framework that will better highlight our business model. This will include a new financial metric, total operating earnings, which represents our more recurring forms of income. Prior to next earnings call, we will provide recast financials to help you further understand the various key metrics. As a reminder, we do expect these announcements to be accretive to all of our per share metrics. And together with the confidence and current visibility we have, it is what allowed us to increase our 2026 FRE per share target to $4.50-plus per share.

結合這些方面，我們將推出一個新的報告框架，以更好地突出我們的業務模式。這將包括一個新的財務指標，即總營業收入，它代表了我們更經常的收入形式。在下一次財報電話會議之前，我們將提供重新調整的財務數據，以幫助您進一步了解各種關鍵指標。提醒一下，我們確實希望這些公告能增加我們所有的每股指標。加上我們的信心和當前的知名度，這使我們能夠將 2026 年 FRE 每股目標提高至每股 4.50 美元以上。

In 2023, we generated $2.68 per share of FRE. So our expectation is for a lot of growth from here. Given these 4 announcements, paired with the existing growth engines we have, we believe that we are well set up to drive meaningful scale. The opportunities we have across asset management, insurance and strategic holdings are multifold.

2023 年，我們每股 FRE 的收益為 2.68 美元。因此，我們的期望是從這裡開始大幅成長。鑑於這四項公告，再加上我們現有的成長引擎，我們相信我們已經做好了推動有意義的規模擴張的準備。我們在資產管理、保險和策略控股方面擁有多方面的機會。

Turning first to our Asset Management business. There remains a lot of upside here, with multiple drivers of growth. We have a lot of younger strategies that are just beginning to scale. We started 25-or-so investing businesses through the past decade alone and many are now starting to inflect. We are in asset classes and geographies with massive end markets. Asia, infrastructure, including climate and credit are all great examples. And as a reminder, we only want to be competing in areas with large addressable markets and where we have conviction that we can be a top 3 player.

首先談談我們的資產管理業務。這裡仍然有很大的上升空間，有多種成長驅動因素。我們有很多年輕的策略剛開始規模化。光是在過去十年裡，我們就創辦了大約 25 家投資業務，其中許多業務現在已經開始轉型。我們所處的資產類別和地區擁有龐大的終端市場。亞洲的基礎設施，包括氣候和信貸都是很好的例子。提醒一下，我們只想在擁有大型潛在市場並且堅信我們可以成為前三名的領域中競爭。

We are in the early days of tapping into the private wealth end market. We've had early success in our K Series suite of products with a tremendous amount of opportunity that is still in front of us. With these growth avenues, along with our strong track record, talent and the trust that we've built with our clients, we feel that we could double our asset management business from here, and that's without starting anything new.

我們正處於進軍私人財富終端市場的早期階段。我們的 K 系列產品套件已經取得了早期成功，我們面前仍然有大量的機會。憑藉這些成長途徑，加上我們良好的業績記錄、人才以及與客戶建立的信任，我們認為我們可以將我們的資產管理業務從這裡翻倍，而無需開始任何新的事情。

Second, we have a meaningful opportunity in insurance with our partnership with Global Atlantic. Insurance is a very powerful contributor to our business. GA has already created a lot of value, going from $72 billion of assets under management at our announcement of the initial transaction in July of 2020 to over $170 billion of assets under management today, including the pending Manulife block deal. We have a strong opportunity to unlock even more value together in investing, product development, global expansion, private wealth distribution and capital markets. And we are still in the very early stages of our partnership.

其次，透過與 Global Atlantic 的合作，我們在保險領域獲得了有意義的機會。保險對我們的業務做出了非常強大的貢獻。 GA 已經創造了巨大的價值，從我們在 2020 年 7 月宣布首次交易時管理的 720 億美元資產增加到如今超過 1700 億美元的管理資產，其中包括懸而未決的宏利大宗交易。我們有很好的機會在投資、產品開發、全球擴張、私人財富分配和資本市場方面共同釋放更多價值。我們的合作仍處於早期階段。

And finally, number three, strategic holdings, where our opportunity is highly differentiated. This segment leverages all of our people, capabilities and our collaborative culture. As a result, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on what we believe is a huge addressable market. And that's in addition to the current visibility we already have to drive net dividends in this segment of $300-plus million by 2026 and $600-plus million by 2028.

最後，第三，策略控股，我們的機會是高度差異化的。該部門利用了我們所有的人員、能力和協作文化。因此，我們處於獨特的地位，可以利用我們認為的巨大潛在市場。除此之外，我們還必須在 2026 年之前推動該細分市場的淨股息達到 3 億多美元，到 2028 年達到 6 億多美元。

In summary, we are incredibly well positioned as a firm. And we really don't think there are many companies in our industry or others that have the type of visibility that we have for long-term growth. We have a high level of confidence that we can meaningfully grow all 3 of our business segments. Asset Management, Insurance and Strategic Holdings.

總而言之，我們作為一家公司處於非常有利的地位。我們確實認為，在我們的行業或其他行業中，沒有多少公司具有我們所擁有的長期成長的可見性。我們非常有信心能夠有意義地發展我們的所有三個業務部門。資產管理、保險和策略控股。

With that, we are excited to announce we are going to host an Investor Day in New York on April 10. Given the November strategic announcements and all of the opportunities across our firm, we thought it would be timely for you to hear directly from our senior leaders. We will provide additional detail in the coming months, and hope that you will join our broader team as we discuss our outlook and these opportunities.

至此，我們很高興地宣布，我們將於 4 月 10 日在紐約舉辦投資者日。考慮到 11 月的策略公告以及我們公司的所有機會，我們認為您現在是時候直接聽到我們的意見了。高級領導。我們將在未來幾個月提供更多詳細信息，並希望您在我們討論我們的前景和這些機會時加入我們更廣泛的團隊。

With that, Scott, Craig and I are happy to take your questions.

史考特、克雷格和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question today will be from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們今天的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的克雷格·西根塔勒 (Craig Siegenthaler)。

Scott, Rob, we were looking for an update on fundraising for your 3 largest flagships. So we have global in for 5, with 4 that's already 60% invested. It's higher when you look at the committed. In Asia, 5. And North America 14, which are both over 40% now. So how should we think about the timing of these fundraises given the commitment levels and AUM targets given the sizes of prior funds, they're all large funds? And more importantly, how should we think about the FRE ramp from these new funds less step-downs from the last...

Scott、Rob，我們正在尋找你們 3 個最大旗艦店籌款的最新資訊。所以我們有 5 個全球項目，其中 4 個已經投資了 60%。當你查看承諾時，它會更高。亞洲為 5，北美為 14，目前均超過 40%。那麼，鑑於先前基金的規模（它們都是大型基金）的承諾程度和資產管理規模目標，我們應該如何考慮這些籌款的時機？更重要的是，我們應該如何考慮這些新基金的 FRE 成長，而不是上次基金的下降…

Craig, it's Craig, why don't I start on that. First, look, one of the things that runs to our mind as it relates to the trajectory of new capital raised, and you would have heard this in the prepared remarks from Rob, relates to the topic exactly as it relates to our flagship strategies. So when you look at the largest fund complexes within our firm, so Americas, Europe, Asia PE, Core PE infrastructure, less than $1 billion of the capital that we raised last year, we raised $70 billion in total, less than $1 billion of that came from those strategies. And if you look over '22 and '23, we raised round numbers, $150 billion of new capital and around $6 billion came from those flagships.

克雷格，我是克雷格，我為什麼不開始？首先，看，我們想到的一件事與新籌集的資金的軌跡有關，你可能在羅布準備好的演講中聽到了這一點，它與這個主題完全相關，就像它與我們的旗艦戰略相關一樣。因此，當你看看我們公司內最大的基金綜合體時，美洲、歐洲、亞洲PE、核心PE 基礎設施，我們去年籌集的資金不到10 億美元，我們總共籌集了700 億美元，不到10億美元。來自這些策略。如果你回顧一下 22 年和 23 年，我們籌集了整數，1500 億美元的新資本和大約 60 億美元來自這些旗艦公司。

And so as we think about '24 and '25, we think that that's going to look different. And so we are actively fundraising for our infrastructure strategy and do expect to launch fundraising for our Americas private equity strategy later in the year, with Asia likely a 2025 initiative for us. On the deployment numbers, you mentioned, those numbers are always a little understated.

因此，當我們考慮“24”和“25”時，我們認為這看起來會有所不同。因此，我們正在積極為我們的基礎設施策略籌集資金，並預計在今年稍後為我們的美洲私募股權策略籌集資金，亞洲可能是我們的 2025 年計劃。關於部署數字，您提到，這些數字總是有點低估。

I remember, if we have platform investments, et cetera, that capital is going to be spoken for. Or if there happens to be capital drawn under the line, that's going to be paid back inside of 180 days. Again, that capital will be additive. So those deployment numbers always look a little more understated relative to how we think of that positioning.

我記得，如果我們有平台投資等，那麼資本就會被利用。或者，如果線下恰好有資金提取，則將在 180 天內償還。同樣，該資本將是可加的。因此，相對於我們對定位的看法，這些部署數字總是顯得更加低調。

And I think there's a couple of other points here. The next one would relate to scaling. We mentioned in our press release that we had the final closes on our Next-Gen Tech 3 and Impact strategies. We had nice scaling in those strategies compared to their prior vintages. Again, Rob talked about the good news as it relates to Asia infrastructure for us. We do expect scaling on our wealth strategies alongside of that.

我認為這裡還有其他幾點。下一個問題與縮放有關。我們在新聞稿中提到，我們的下一代技術 3 和影響力戰略已最終結束。與他們之前的策略相比，我們在這些策略上取得了很好的擴展。羅布再次談到了與我們亞洲基礎設施相關的好消息。我們確實希望同時擴大我們的財富策略。

And then finally, we feel like we have a lot of momentum in Global Atlantic, both in the individual as well as the institutional channels. So I think the opportunities that we see for new capital raised and in turn management fee growth is really an attractive part of our positioning with the flagship certainly being an important part of that.

最後，我們覺得 Global Atlantic 在個人和機構管道上都有很大的動力。因此，我認為我們看到的新融資機會以及管理費成長確實是我們定位的一個有吸引力的部分，而旗艦產品無疑是其中的重要組成部分。

Craig, it's Rob. I'll pick up as it relates to your question on FRE. When you look at some of these big flagships that will be in the market and their predecessor funds, they don't have big step-downs in fee rates as they transition to post-investment period. In addition to that, when you think about the runoff, a lot of the runoff from investment is probably going to come from 2 funds prior and 3 funds prior, those funds close out. But maybe kicking it up a level, if you think about where we are today and where we're going, and I hit this in the prepared remarks, we're at $2.68 of FRE per share.

克雷格，我是羅布。我會接聽，因為它與您在 FRE 上的問題有關。當你觀察市場上的一些大型旗艦基金及其前身基金時，你會發現，隨著過渡到投資後時期，它們的費率並沒有大幅下降。除此之外，當你考慮徑流時，許多投資徑流可能來自之前的 2 個基金和之前的 3 個基金，這些基金會平倉。但也許把它提高一個水平，如果你想想我們今天的處境和我們要去的地方，我在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，我們的 FRE 每股為 2.68 美元。

And we've guided 3 years from now, we have an expectation of being at $4.50-plus per share. And so in order to get there, our expectation is we're going to have a lot of management fee growth and the flagships, on a net basis, will be a part of that story.

我們預計 3 年後的股價將達到每股 4.50 美元以上。因此，為了實現這一目標，我們的預期是管理費將大幅成長，而旗艦店在淨值基礎上將成為這個故事的一部分。

Yes. The only thing I would add, Craig, is I think our overall view on fundraising is quite optimistic. I mean, Craig Larson mentioned it, but the $150 billion we raised for 4% of that have come from flagships is a pretty low number speaks to how we've been scaling the diversification of the firm. And as you know, a number of our strategies are kind of in this nice part of the inflection curve Funds II, III, IV, where we can see a significant amount of growth.

是的。克雷格，我唯一要補充的是，我認為我們對籌款的整體看法是相當樂觀的。我的意思是，克雷格·拉爾森（Craig Larson）提到過這一點，但我們籌集的1500 億美元中有4% 來自旗艦店，這個數字相當低，這說明了我們如何擴大公司的多元化規模。如您所知，我們的許多策略都位於拐點曲線基金 II、III、IV 的這個很好的部分，我們可以在其中看到顯著的成長。

So you're absolutely right to point out the flagships are coming back at what we think is going to be a really good time. But we also have 22 of our 30 strategies that are coming to market in the next 12 to 18 months. we put in that younger category. Fund I, II, III, open-ended these newer strategies.

因此，您指出旗艦產品正在回歸，我們認為這將是一個非常好的時機，這是完全正確的。但我們也有 30 種策略中的 22 種將在未來 12 至 18 個月內上市。我們將其歸類為較年輕的類別。基金 I、II、III 開放式這些較新的策略。

And you can see it. Asia Infra, up 66%. Tech growth was up 30%. Our impact fund doubled even in the environment that we saw over the last couple of years. Yet, on top of that, private wealth, GA, Asia speaks to the optimism that we see kind of regardless of what's happening with the backdrop.

你可以看到它。亞洲基礎設施，上漲 66%。科技成長了 30%。即使在過去幾年的環境下，我們的影響力基金也翻了一番。然而，最重要的是，無論背景發生什麼，私人財富、GA、亞洲都體現了我們所看到的樂觀情緒。

Our next question is from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping you could start with just building on your prior comments around expansion in the wealth channel. You mentioned you're seeing quite a bit of success early days, only a couple of quarters in some of these platforms. So maybe talk a little bit about what products you expect to be out in the market with over the course of this year, how many platforms you're on, et cetera. But also, I guess, more importantly, I believe in the past, your targets for 2026 and FRE and DE really did not include a whole lot of conception from these initiatives. So maybe just kind of confirm that, and what do you think those initiatives could ultimately contribute over time?

我希望你能從之前關於財富管道擴張的評論開始。您提到您在早期就看到了相當多的成功，但其中一些平台只取得了幾個季度的成功。因此，也許可以談談您預計今年在市場上推出哪些產品，您使用了多少個平台，等等。而且，我想，更重要的是，我相信在過去，你們的 2026 年目標以及 FRE 和 DE 確實沒有包含這些舉措的大量構想。那麼也許只是確認這一點，您認為這些舉措隨著時間的推移最終會做出什麼貢獻？

Alex, it's Craig. Why don't I start, thanks for that. And just stepping back and level setting for everyone. So as of 12/31, around $75 billion of our assets under management are from individuals. And that number does not include policyholders of Global Atlantic. So you could argue that, that $75 billion, if anything, is understated as it relates to the presence and the activities we have with individuals broadly. Now most of that $75 billion are from high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals as well as family offices that have invested in our funds and strategies.

亞歷克斯，這是克雷格。我為什麼不開始呢，謝謝。只是退後一步，為每個人設定水平。截至 12 月 31 日，我們管理的資產中約有 750 億美元來自個人。這個數字不包括環球大西洋的保單持有人。因此，你可能會說，750 億美元（如果有的話）是被低估的，因為它與我們與個人廣泛開展的存在和活動有關。現在，這 750 億美元中的大部分來自高淨值和超高淨值人士以及投資於我們的基金和策略的家族辦公室。

And in terms of our fundraising in total, a double-digit percentage of our new capital raised historically has typically come from individuals. So it's been a healthy part of that fundraising activity. Now back to your question, most specifically, most recently, we've introduced what we call our K Series suite of products. And so these are funds and strategies that are really designed and tailored specifically for wealth investors. So K-INFRA and KIF are the U.S. and non-U.S. vehicles focused on infrastructure. K-PRIME and K-PEC are the U.S. and non-U.S. vehicles focused on private equity. We launched both private equity and infrastructure only midway through 2023.

就我們的籌款總額而言，歷史上籌集的新資金中有兩位數的比例通常來自個人。因此，這是籌款活動的一個健康組成部分。現在回到您的問題，最具體地說，最近，我們推出了我們所說的 K 系列產品套件。因此，這些基金和策略是真正專為財富投資者設計和客製化的。因此，K-INFRA 和 KIF 是專注於基礎設施的美國和非美國工具。 K-PRIME 和 K-PEC 是專注於私募股權的美國和非美國工具。到 2023 年中期，我們才推出了私募股權和基礎設施。

And with those products in real estate and credit on top of that as well as our private BDC soon to be launched of around -- of that $75 billion of wealth, around $6.5 billion of that is from these K Series suite of products. Now a year ago, that was $2.4 billion. So we're in the early days, but we feel really good about the progress from here. And as we look at some of the underlying statistics, that's particularly true as it relates to infrastructure and private equity, which are newer asset classes for more mass affluent investors. As we've mentioned historically, we're raising about $500 million a month as we look at the K Series suite. And so it feels like reception and interest and our momentum continues to feel really good.

除此之外，還有房地產和信貸領域的這些產品，以及我們即將推出的私人 BDC，在這 750 億美元的財富中，大約 65 億美元來自這些 K 系列產品套件。一年前，這個數字是 24 億美元。所以我們還處於早期階段，但我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。當我們查看一些基礎統計數據時，情況尤其如此，因為它涉及基礎設施和私募股權，這些對於更大眾富裕的投資者來說是較新的資產類別。正如我們歷史上提到的，當我們考慮 K 系列套件時，我們每月籌集約 5 億美元。所以感覺就像是受到了歡迎和興趣，我們的勢頭繼續感覺非常好。

And to your point, we do expect to see an acceleration in the number of platforms in the first half of '24. So it's great progress. But I think to us, even the more interesting part is really that long-term secular dynamic because mass affluent individual investors historically have not had an easy way to access these types of products and strategies. And so over the coming years, if we're correct and you start to see allocations go from the low single digits to the mid-single digits, that literally is trillions of dollars that have the potential to move to alternative products.

就您的觀點而言，我們確實預期 24 年上半年平台數量將會加速。所以這是一個巨大的進步。但我認為對我們來說，更有趣的部分實際上是長期的長期動態，因為大眾富裕的個人投資者歷來沒有一種簡單的方法來獲得這些類型的產品和策略。因此，在未來幾年中，如果我們是正確的，並且您開始看到分配從低個位數變為中個位數，那麼實際上有數萬億美元有可能轉移到替代產品。

And when we think of how we're positioned given our brand, our track record, the investments that we've made in distribution and marketing, our ability to product-innovate, we feel really well positioned to be a winner in the space over the long term.

當我們考慮到我們的品牌、我們的業績記錄、我們在分銷和行銷方面的投資、我們的產品創新能力時，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置，能夠成為這個領域的贏家。從長遠來看。

Alex, just as it relates to your question on our 2026 targets. Historically, we haven't included much of anything as it relates to private wealth. As we look forward, given some of the early success that Craig just went through, we do see some contribution coming over the next few years across the number of different investing businesses that we have. But -- and Craig just hit on it at the end, the real opportunity we see as we do long-term financial modeling is really in that post-2026, between 2026, '28, as we continue to ramp, that's where you're going to start to see a real inflection and much more material contribution to our P&L.

Alex，這與您關於 2026 年目標的問題有關。從歷史上看，我們沒有包含太多與私人財富相關的內容。展望未來，考慮到克雷格剛剛取得的一些早期成功，我們確實看到未來幾年我們擁有的不同投資業務的數量將做出一些貢獻。但是，克雷格最後突然提到，我們在進行長期財務建模時看到的真正機會實際上是在2026 年之後，即2026 年之間，「28，當我們繼續擴大規模時，這就是你所在的地方」我們將開始看到真正的變化以及對我們損益表的更多實質貢獻。

Our next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Glenn Schorr 和 Evercore 的對話。

So question relates to the banks, and I see 2-way activity. I see -- right now, I see a little bit more banks coming back into the leveraged loan space, and you see some movement and them getting into providing some services in private credit. Yet at the same time, we know capital requirements are going up in private credit world and more asset-backed opportunities are coming your way. So I just wonder if you could talk a little bit about that dynamic and what specifically you're doing on the asset-backed side to position for what we all think is a lot of growth ahead.

所以問題與銀行有關，我看到了雙向活動。我看到 - 現在，我看到更多的銀行回到槓桿貸款領域，你會看到一些動作，他們開始提供一些私人信貸服務。但同時，我們知道私人信貸領域的資本要求正在上升，更多資產支持的機會即將到來。所以我想知道您是否可以談談這種動態，以及您在資產支援方面具體做了什麼，以應對我們都認為未來的大量成長。

So Glenn, why don't I start. And thanks for asking, because these are really important secular drivers really as it relates to both businesses. So as a reminder, as of year-end, we had around $90 billion of private credit AUM. Almost $50 billion of that was in asset-based finance and $38 billion in direct lending. So these are big businesses for us. I think probably larger than someone might expect in the framework of KKR.

那麼格倫，我為什麼不開始呢？感謝您的詢問，因為這些確實是非常重要的長期驅動因素，因為它與這兩個業務都相關。提醒一下，截至年底，我們的私人信貸資產管理規模約為 900 億美元。其中近 500 億美元用於資產融資，380 億美元用於直接貸款。所以這些對我們來說都是大生意。我認為 KKR 的框架可能比人們想像的要大。

And you touched on 2 things. I think first, as it relates to direct lending and overall activity, we are seeing a lot more activity in the leveraged loan, in the high-yield market and CLO issuance feels like it's picking up. We will actually look at all of that as really good for our businesses. And as it relates -- now a lot of that has been refinancing related, so it's been less new dollars in.

你談到了兩件事。我認為首先，因為它與直接貸款和整體活動有關，我們看到槓桿貸款、高收益市場和 CLO 發行量正在增加。我們實際上會將所有這些視為對我們的業務真正有利的事情。正如它所涉及的，現在很多都是與再融資相關的，所以新的資金投入較少。

But as it relates to new deals, we think that's going to be helpful for mid-market M&A. And if the private credit markets end up having a lower market share, but of a bigger pie, we think that dynamic is one that can still work really well in the framework of our firm. And in terms of private credit, I think there are lots of advantages that are going to lead to people to continue to use that market.

但由於它與新交易有關，我們認為這將對中端市場併購有所幫助。如果私人信貸市場最終的市場份額較低，但蛋糕更大，我們認為這種動態在我們公司的框架內仍然可以很好地發揮作用。就私人信貸而言，我認為有許多優勢可以促使人們繼續使用該市場。

The point on ABF is a really, really important one, and it relates to the dynamics that you're talking about. So I think as banks pull back from many types of lending and divest non-core loan portfolios, our opportunity set, we think, is just going to continue to expand. And you've actually seen this in recent announcements from us, 2 weeks ago, we announced an accounts receivable financing for our Barbecue business. I remember you actually sent me an e-mail on this. And -- as I know you were hoping that could lead to nice little trinkets at our next Investor Day.

ABF 的觀點非常非常重要，它與您所談論的動態相關。因此，我認為，隨著銀行退出多種類型的貸款並剝離非核心貸款組合，我們認為，我們的機會集將繼續擴大。實際上，您已經在我們最近的公告中看到了這一點，兩週前，我們宣佈為我們的燒烤業務提供應收帳款融資。我記得你確實給我發了一封關於此事的電子郵件。而且——據我所知，您希望這可以在我們下一個投資者日帶來漂亮的小飾品。

In December, we announced a partnership with BMO focused on a $7 billion portfolio of RV loans. In October, Goldman announced the sale of the GreenSky platform to a handful of buyers of which we were part of that consortium. And in August and September, we announced the acquisition of a portfolio of prime auto loans from a regional bank in the Southeast. So I think you're seeing lots of opportunities for firms like ours to participate in asset-based finance in a way that you didn't see 5 years ago, and it's a really important tailwind as we think about the growth and opportunities that we see ahead.

12 月，我們宣布與 BMO 建立合作夥伴關係，重點關注 70 億美元的房車貸款組合。十月份，高盛宣布將 GreenSky 平台出售給少數買家，我們也是財團的一部分。八月和九月，我們宣布從東南部一家地區銀行收購優質汽車貸款組合。因此，我認為像我們這樣的公司有很多機會以 5 年前沒有見過的方式參與基於資產的融資，當我們考慮我們的成長和機會時，這是一個非常重要的推動力。向前看。

Yes. The only thing I would add, Glenn, is we see a lot written about the direct lending market, rightly so, it's become a very large and important market. I think Craig is right. M&A volumes have been down. Private credits had a larger share of a smaller amount of volume. And so as the banks come back, our expectation is you'll see M&A volume pick up, and there'll still be plenty for the private credit market to participate in.

是的。格倫，我唯一要補充的是，我們看到很多關於直接貸款市場的文章，因此，它已經成為一個非常大且重要的市場。我認為克雷格是對的。併購交易量有所下降。私人信貸在規模較小的情況下所佔的份額較大。因此，隨著銀行的回歸，我們的預期是併購交易量將會增加，而且私人信貸市場仍會有大量的參與機會。

But this ABF business, I don't think is that well understood yet, whereas the direct lending market is probably roughly $1.5 trillion, the ABF market is probably closer to $5 trillion, on its way to $7 trillion. And it is kind of my view, becoming an asset class for institutional investors to understand a little bit. Like 10, 12 years ago, infrastructure and direct lending were very new concepts for most investors. We're having more dialogue on asset-based finance, seeing more investors start to create an allocation or a sub-allocation on private credit.

但我認為 ABF 業務還沒有得到很好的理解，雖然直接貸款市場可能約為 1.5 兆美元，但 ABF 市場可能接近 5 兆美元，正在向 7 兆美元邁進。我的觀點是，成為機構投資人需要了解一點的資產類別。就像 10、12 年前一樣，基礎設施和直接貸款對大多數投資者來說都是非常新的概念。我們正在就基於資產的融資進行更多對話，看到更多投資者開始對私人信貸進行分配或再分配。

It's obviously incredibly synergistic with what we're building at Global Atlantic, and we're seeing interest from third-party insurers as well. And I do think there's a significant amount of growth ahead for that business. We have 20 or so origination platforms around asset-based finance so far, and I'd expect that number to continue to go up. I would guess in April when we're together for the Investor Day, we'll go deeper on that topic.

這顯然與我們在 Global Atlantic 正在建立的業務具有令人難以置信的協同效應，而且我們也看到了第三方保險公司的興趣。我確實認為該業務未來將大幅成長。到目前為止，我們有大約 20 個圍繞資產融資的發起平台，我預計這個數字會繼續上升。我想四月當我們一起參加投資者日時，我們會更深入地討論這個主題。

Our next question is from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bill Katz 和 TD Cowen。

Okay. So maybe just flipping over to the insurance platform and just sort of adjusting for the solar gain in the quarter. I mean how we should be thinking about the ROE for the platform given sort of 2 parts, one, and now you have 100% of the platform; and two, if interest rates were to go lower, is there enough growth in the business to offset any kind of degradation in net spreads?

好的。因此，也許只是轉向保險平台，並對本季的太陽能增益進行調整。我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮平台的 ROE，給定兩部分，一是現在你擁有 100% 的平台；二是現在你擁有了 100% 的平台。第二，如果利率下降，業務成長是否足以抵銷淨利差的任何下降？

Bill, all great questions. Thank you. First thing, as we look at Q4 and we look at 2023, a very strong performance from the Global Atlantic business. Management team has done a great job, and it's a big reason why we're excited to own 100% of the business. You are right that in Q4 as well as through 2023, that the P&L did have some tailwinds, some variable investment income on a gross basis, about $35 million in Q4.

比爾，所有的問題都很好。謝謝。首先，當我們回顧第四季和 2023 年時，全球大西洋業務的表現非常強勁。管理團隊做得非常出色，這也是我們對擁有 100% 業務感到興奮的重要原因。你說得對，在第四季以及到 2023 年，損益表確實有一些順風車，在總基礎上有一些可變投資收入，第四季約為 3500 萬美元。

At the beginning of the year, we're had about 20% of our book on a net basis exposed to floating rate. Team did a good job making that adjustment, and so got the benefit of rising rates through much of '23. We ended the year at about 16%. And so as we think about interest rates going down in 2024, we're conscious of that.

今年年初，我們帳簿中約 20% 的淨額面臨浮動利率風險。團隊在調整方面做得很好，因此在 23 年的大部分時間裡都從利率上升中受益。年底我們的成長率約為 16%。因此，當我們考慮 2024 年利率下降時，我們意識到了這一點。

In Q4, too, specifically, we made a modest adjustment to our comp. So effectively had over-accrued a little bit through the course of Q1, Q2 and Q3. So all things that positively impacted the quarter and all things front of mind as it relates to how we plan for 2024. So as we look at Q4, not necessarily replicable in the near term. But as you said, we have so many levers to be able to grow the GA franchise that our expectation even in a reducing rate environment is that GA is going to continue to perform.

具體來說，在第四季度，我們對我們的補償進行了適度調整。因此，在第一季、第二季和第三季的過程中，實際上已經超額累積了一點。因此，所有對本季度產生積極影響的事情以及所有需要考慮的事情，都與我們如何規劃 2024 年有關。因此，當我們看到第四季度時，短期內不一定可以複製。但正如您所說，我們擁有如此多的槓桿來發展 GA 特許經營權，因此即使在利率降低的環境下，我們的預期也是 GA 將繼續發揮作用。

As it relates to ROE targets, we continue to think the right level to model the business is that, that 14% to 15% pretax ROE. The team has done a nice job being able to beat that and beat that by a healthy margin over the past couple of years. But we are going into an environment here that could be lower interest rates and put a little bit of pressure on the P&L.

由於它與 ROE 目標相關，我們仍然認為對業務進行建模的正確水平是 14% 至 15% 的稅前 ROE。球隊做得很好，能夠擊敗它，並在過去幾年中以健康的優勢擊敗了它。但我們正在進入一個利率可能較低的環境，並對損益表造成一些壓力。

Our next question is from the line of Brian McKenna with JMP.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 的 Brian McKenna。

So just a question on the Capital Markets business. I'm curious, how did activity trend throughout the fourth quarter? I'm assuming November and December were better months just as broader markets rallied quite a bit into year-end, and then has this momentum carried into the new year? And I'm just trying to get a sense of the jumping off point for capital markets activity levels to start 2024.

這只是關於資本市場業務的問題。我很好奇，整個第四季的活動趨勢如何？我假設 11 月和 12 月是更好的月份，因為更廣泛的市場在年底大幅反彈，那麼這種勢頭是否會延續到新的一年？我只是想了解 2024 年開始的資本市場活動水準的起點。

Yes. Great. Thanks for the question. Obviously, we're really pleased with the performance of our Capital Markets business in Q4 and really for all of 2023. If you look at Q4 specifically, great quarter did benefit maybe from a bit of deferrals, some fees that could have been in Q3, that ended up in Q4. You're right, as the markets picked up in November and December, that definitely helped as well. But I think the more important point on our capital markets business, really, if you look at 2022 and 2023, through much of both of those years, debt capital markets, equity capital markets were largely shut. And our business still was able to generate, on average, close to $600 million of annual revenue in both of those years.

是的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們對第四季度以及 2023 年全年資本市場業務的表現感到非常滿意。如果你具體看第四季度，偉大的季度確實受益於一些延期，一些本可以在第三季度支付的費用，最終在第四季結束。你是對的，隨著 11 月和 12 月市場回暖，這肯定也有幫助。但我認為，對於我們的資本市場業務來說，更重要的一點是，如果你看看2022 年和2023 年，在這兩年的大部分時間裡，債務資本市場、股權資本市場基本上都處於關閉狀態。在那兩年裡，我們的業務仍然能夠平均產生接近 6 億美元的年收入。

So we're quite proud of the resilience of the business model, the durability of the business model. So it wasn't that long ago in a very healthy market environments, our Capital Markets business was generating roughly $400 million a year. And as you also point out, we've got a business that can generate really outsized outcomes when the markets come back. It wasn't that long ago, 2021, where our capital markets business in very healthy markets generated $840 million of revenue.

因此，我們對商業模式的彈性和持久性感到非常自豪。因此，就在不久前，在非常健康的市場環境中，我們的資本市場業務每年產生約 4 億美元的收入。正如您還指出的那樣，當市場復甦時，我們的業務可以產生真正巨大的成果。就在不久前的 2021 年，我們在非常健康的市場中的資本市場業務創造了 8.4 億美元的收入。

Now despite the strong Q4, we're not back to those healthy levels of Capital Markets deployments. It's still relatively muted across the space. Leverage finance market feels better, but the CLO market is continuing to get healthy. IPO markets, secondary markets, they continue to trend in an upward way, but not back anywhere close to where we were in 2021.

現在，儘管第四季度表現強勁，但我們尚未回到資本市場部署的健康水準。整個空間仍然相對安靜。槓桿金融市場感覺更好，但 CLO 市場正在繼續健康發展。 IPO 市場、二級市場持續呈上升趨勢，但並未回到 2021 年的水準。

Now as we think about pipelines going into 2024, we're quite constructive. As it relates to Q1, still very early in the quarter to give you a read. But our pipeline as we're going into the year just across the firm from deployment, the engagement we're having with our third-party clients, we're expecting a constructive 2024.

現在，當我們考慮 2024 年的管道時，我們非常有建設性。由於它與第一季有關，所以在本季度很早的時候就可以給您一讀。但是，隨著我們進入整個公司的部署、與第三方客戶的互動，我們預計 2024 年將是建設性的。

Our next question is from the line of Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Finian O'Shea。

Going back to ABF, a lot of color you provided there. Recently in a presentation, you outlined the ABF origination growth in recent years, seeing if you can touch on the potential for improvement into 2024. And then what that can mean for the credit fee rate and potentially the capital markets opportunity.

回到 ABF，您在那裡提供了很多顏色。最近在一次演講中，您概述了近年來 ABF 的發起成長，看看您是否可以觸及 2024 年的改善潛力。然後這對信貸費率和潛在的資本市場機會意味著什麼。

Finian, it's Craig, why don't I start there. So we noted in that presentation that if you look 2018 to 2020, so before the GA acquisition, average annual asset origination was in that $9 billion a year. And if you look post-acquisition, we've averaged $25 billion. Now that is not just ABF, that includes direct lending, that includes mortgage loans, et cetera.

菲尼安，我是克雷格，為什麼不從這裡開始呢？因此，我們在那次演示中指出，如果你看看 2018 年到 2020 年，那麼在 GA 收購之前，平均每年的資產來源為 90 億美元。如果你看看收購後的情況，我們的平均估值為 250 億美元。現在這不僅僅是ABF，還包括直接貸款、抵押貸款等等。

And we also have -- so I think as we look how we're positioned in growth, in activity from here, we think the opportunity for that is one that's going to be able to expand as it relates from an ABF standpoint, both the insurance relationships that we have in addition to the capital that we have, that's more opportunistic in nature.

我們也——所以我認為，當我們從這裡開始審視我們在成長和活動方面的定位時，我們認為這一機會將能夠擴展，因為它與 ABF 的角度有關，無論是除了我們擁有的資本之外，我們擁有的保險關係本質上更具機會主義色彩。

So I think again, that outlook for us is one, as we've continued to grow and expand, that we're very positive on and think it could be a real growth engine within the credit business broadly.

因此，我再次認為，隨著我們不斷發展和擴張，我們的前景非常樂觀，並認為它可能成為整個信貸業務的真正成長引擎。

Yes. The only thing I would add, Fin, is that you're right to ask about the KCM opportunity. As a reminder, when we spoke at the end of November, we talked about all the different positive opportunities we had to unlock more value with GA, including across the rest of the firm from an investing standpoint, creating new product, private wealth distribution, Ivy, which is our third-party fund strategy, and then global, in particular, Asia. And as part of that list, we did talk about the capital markets opportunity. And we do think that, that can be quite meaningful for us.

是的。 Fin，我唯一要補充的是，您詢問 KCM 機會的問題是正確的。提醒一下，當我們在 11 月底發言時，我們談到了我們必須透過 GA 釋放更多價值的所有不同的積極機會，包括從投資的角度來看公司的其他部門、創造新產品、私人財富分配、 Ivy ，這是我們的第三方基金策略，然後是全球，特別是亞洲。作為該清單的一部分，我們確實討論了資本市場機會。我們確實認為這對我們來說非常有意義。

So think of it as, in effect, using the model we've already built with KCM, but more across this ABF platform. We really haven't gotten to that yet. And when we had 37% ownership from third parties, it was a little bit more challenged to get after that. We think, over time, that could be a significant opportunity, call it, in the hundreds of millions of dollars if we can get that right. It's going to take time. We'll keep you posted on it, but we do think that is the next big leg of growth across all things structured finance, structured credit, asset-based finance for KCM.

因此，實際上，可以將其視為使用我們已經使用 KCM 建立的模型，但更多的是跨此 ABF 平台。我們真的還沒有做到這一點。當我們從第三方獲得 37% 的所有權時，獲得此後的挑戰就更大了。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，如果我們能做到這一點，這可能是一個巨大的機會，可以稱之為數億美元。這需要時間。我們會及時通知您，但我們確實認為這是 KCM 結構性融資、結構性信貸、以資產為基礎的融資等所有領域的下一個重要成長點。

Our next question is from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自自主研究組織的 Patrick Davitt。

Questions on margin. The FRE margin came in much better than consensus. So firstly, is that mostly a function of the much better capital markets results? And secondly, if so, if this continues into 2024, as you suggest, should we expect a similar incremental positive operating leverage impact as that line item recovers?

關於保證金的問題。 FRE 利潤率遠高於共識。那麼首先，這主要是資本市場業績好得多的結果嗎？其次，如果是這樣，如果這種情況持續到 2024 年，正如您所建議的那樣，隨著該訂單項目的恢復，我們是否應該預期會產生類似的積極營運槓桿影響？

Patrick, for quite some time, and we've guided that we feel like we've got a business model that could operate in the low 60s from an FRE margin perspective, which drove -- the FRE margin beat -- in the quarter is a combination of a few things. Healthy management, fee growth, clearly very strong capital markets quarter for us and then also some operating expense leverage as well.

帕特里克，很長一段時間以來，我們一直認為，從 FRE 利潤率的角度來看，我們已經擁有了一種可以在 60 左右運行的商業模式，這推動了本季度 FRE 利潤率的增長一些事情的組合。健康的管理、費用成長、資本市場季度對我們來說顯然非常強勁，還有一些營運費用槓桿。

As we move into 2024, with our already announced shift in how we're going to form our compensation pool at KKR and reducing the compensation load against our fee-related revenue, our expectation is, going forward, we're going to be sustainably able to operate in the mid-60% FRE margin ZIP code as a firm.

進入 2024 年，隨著我們已經宣布改變 KKR 薪酬池的組建方式，並減少與費用相關的收入的薪酬負擔，我們的期望是，展望未來，我們將可持續地能夠以郵政編碼的60% FRE 利潤率作為公司運作。

And I think I said this last call or the call before, I don't think that mid-60% level is a cap for us given the business model that we're employing. We're trying to scale things that we've already started here. And if we're right and our ability to execute on that, we're going to be able to drive revenue growth, fee revenue growth, at a level that's well in excess of expense growth over the next several years.

我想我在上次電話會議或之前的電話會議上說過，考慮到我們正在採用的商業模式，我認為 60% 的中間水平並不是我們的上限。我們正在嘗試擴展我們已經開始的事情。如果我們是對的，並且我們有能力執行這一點，我們將能夠推動收入成長、費用收入成長，其水準在未來幾年遠遠超過費用成長。

So I do think we should be able to, absent a really draconian type of market environment, operate at mid-60% FRE margin quarter in, quarter out, with the potential to be able to drive that up over time, assuming we're able to execute as a management team like we think we can.

因此，我確實認為，在沒有真正嚴酷的市場環境的情況下，我們應該能夠每季以 60% 左右的 FRE 利潤率運營，並且有可能隨著時間的推移將其推高，假設我們能夠像我們認為的那樣作為管理團隊執行任務。

Next question is from the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So 2-parter for me just on the PE fundraising outlook. The closings for the Next-Gen tech fund, the third Global Impact Fund, certainly encouraging. Meaningful step-ups versus the vintages. Does that momentum increase or inform your confidence for the upcoming PE flagship fund raise? Or are these simply too niche and sector specific to offer any sort of read across? And when do you expect to go to market with the funds given the significant amount of deployment capacity that you still have to work through?

所以我的兩方只是討論私募股權融資的前景。下一代科技基金（第三個全球影響力基金）的關閉無疑令人鼓舞。與年份相比，有意義的進步。這種勢頭是否增強或增強了您對即將到來的私募股權旗艦基金募集的信心？還是這些內容太小眾、太特定領域而無法提供任何形式的閱讀？鑑於您仍需要解決大量部署容量問題，您預計何時將資金投入市場？

It's Craig, why don't I start. Look, I think, again, as it relates to the deployment capacity, the numbers are going to be understated given platforms or platform investments we've made, et cetera. So I don't think the dynamic is, one, as it relates to deployment, I think in particular as we look at our pipelines which are building and actually expect across the industry to see deployment increase in '24 as it relates to '23.

我是克雷格，我為什麼不開始呢？我再次認為，由於它與部署能力有關，考慮到我們所做的平台或平台投資等，這些數字將會被低估。因此，我不認為動態是，一，因為它與部署相關，我認為特別是當我們查看正在建造的管道時，實際上預計整個行業將在 24 年看到部署增加，因為它與 23 年相關。

I think as it relates to your first question in terms of overall tone, look, I think as a starting point. We've seen a nice increase in public markets. We've seen broad markets improve since mid-October, to say the least. High yield and fees are up. LSCA is up. And I think in addition to that, we've all seen the increase in the capital markets. And so I think given that backdrop as it relates to fundraising and tone, I think like if anything, on balance, it feels like clients are more front-footed. And again, it's tough to draw broad conclusions from one month of activity, and we'll see how things continue to play out from here.

我認為，因為它與你的第一個問題有關整體基調，所以我認為這是一個起點。我們已經看到公開市場的大幅成長。至少可以說，自十月中旬以來，我們已經看到廣泛的市場有所改善。收益率高，費用也上漲。 LSCA 上線了。我認為除此之外，我們都看到了資本市場的成長。因此，我認為考慮到與籌款和基調相關的背景，我認為總的來說，感覺客戶更加主動。再說一遍，很難從一個月的活動中得出廣泛的結論，我們將看看事情如何繼續發展。

But given our track records, the performance that we've had, in particular, in a business for us, like Americas private equity over a long, long period of time, I think we feel very good about the opportunities that we see as we embark upon fundraising for that strategy.

但考慮到我們的業績記錄，特別是我們在很長一段時間內在美國私募股權等業務中所取得的業績，我認為我們對我們所看到的機會感到非常滿意。開始為該策略籌集資金。

Steven, it's Scott. To your question about read across, I don't think it's a stretch to say that it does inform our broader perspective. Much of the funds that you mentioned were raised at a period of time where the capital markets weren't nearly as robust. And what we've seen is that investors are re-upping the funds where they've seen strong performance. Also, the color from the dialogue we're having is, I think, even more mature programs out there understand these are going to be very good vintage years and don't want to miss out.

史蒂文，這是斯科特。對於你關於閱讀的問題，我認為毫不誇張地說，它確實為我們提供了更廣泛的視角。你提到的大部分資金都是在資本市場不太強勁的時期籌集的。我們看到的是，投資人正在重新增持那些表現強勁的基金。另外，我認為，我們正在進行的對話的色彩是，甚至更成熟的程序都明白這將是非常好的年份，並且不想錯過。

I think in the past, if you go back to the financial crisis, there are some institutions that pulled back and then had regret. And so I think there's an understanding of that in the market. And that's on the more mature programs, which I would say the minority of the people that we talk to, if you think about how the industry has expanded across sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, family offices, obviously, we talked about the private wealth channel, we're optimistic. But it's in -- some parts based on those discussions and in large part based on the great work our team has been doing in terms of keeping the investment performance very strong.

我想過去，如果你回到金融危機的時候，有一些機構退出了，然後就後悔了。所以我認為市場對此有所了解。這是關於更成熟的項目，我想說的是我們交談過的少數人，如果你想想這個行業是如何擴展到主權財富基金、保險公司、家族辦公室的，顯然，我們談論的是私人財富管道，我們很樂觀。但它的某些部分是基於這些討論，並且在很大程度上基於我們團隊在保持強勁的投資績效方面所做的出色工作。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Maybe just to focus back on capital markets and maybe more of the longer-term view. So if you think about it from more of a structural basis in terms of your current dry powder, but also the deployment pipeline over the next few years from your flagship fundraising cycle, and then you mentioned the ABF opportunity as well over the long term. So as we think about that and building out to 2026, you don't have to put a number on it, but is it fair to assume you could easily be well over $1 billion in Capital Markets fees by then even without a particularly robust Capital Markets environment? And in terms of your $4.50 per share cost target, should we be thinking of maybe a more robust environment as you're driving the plus in that equation as opposed to the baseline of $4.50?

也許只是為了重新關注資本市場，也許更多的是更長遠的觀點。因此，如果你更多地從當前乾粉的結構基礎來考慮，以及你的旗艦籌款週期未來幾年的部署管道，然後你也提到了 ABF 的長期機會。因此，當我們考慮這一點並展望 2026 年時，您不必給出具體數字，但可以公平地假設，即使沒有特別強勁的資本，到那時您的資本市場費用也可能輕鬆超過 10 億美元市場環境？就您每股 4.50 美元的成本目標而言，我們是否應該考慮一個更穩健的環境，因為您正在推動方程式的成長，而不是 4.50 美元的基準？

Yes. Brian, it's Rob. I'll start off. So we really like our business model and our approach to market with our Capital Markets business, and I think it's a big reason why there's a lot of upside. And the way we face the market really is with one team that represents our private credit pools of capital, where we're one of the largest providers in the world. Our capital markets expertise, it's that same team when they're face a client, that can wall cross our liquid credit business, which is one of the biggest liquid credit businesses in the world. And so we combined 3 very large aspects of our business, and we think that's a real benefit to our clients. And there's not a lot of firms out there that can match what we do from a coordination perspective.

是的。布萊恩，我是羅布。我就開始吧。因此，我們真的很喜歡我們的商業模式和我們的資本市場業務的市場方法，我認為這是有很多上升空間的一個重要原因。我們面對市場的真正方式是與一支代表我們私人信貸資本池的團隊合作，我們是世界上最大的提供者之一。我們的資本市場專業知識，正是他們面對客戶時的同一個團隊，可以跨越我們的流動信貸業務，這是世界上最大的流動信貸業務之一。因此，我們將業務的三個非常大的方面結合起來，我們認為這對我們的客戶來說是真正的好處。從協調的角度來看，沒有多少公司可以與我們的工作相提並論。

I like our ability to go compete for talent in the capital market space. We've been able to recruit and retain, over the past number of years, some really talented people at what they do. And especially as we've expanded in product and geography, that's a big part of our story, and I could see more of that. You referenced what types of upside we have. I think if you look back to 2021, of course, we had a buoyant capital markets at the time. But KKR does a lot more as a firm today, both from a product perspective, deployment perspective and geographically than we did then. We think we're going to continue to be able to take share with third-party clients.

我喜歡我們在資本市場領域爭取人才的能力。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經能夠招募並留住一些在其工作領域非常有才華的人才。尤其是當我們在產品和地理方面進行擴展時，這是我們故事的重要組成部分，我可以看到更多。您提到了我們有哪些類型的優勢。我想，如果你回顧 2021 年，當然，我們當時的資本市場很活躍。但如今，KKR 作為一家公司，無論是從產品角度、部署角度還是從地理角度來看，都比我們當時所做的要多得多。我們認為我們將繼續能夠與第三方客戶分享份額。

And Scott just touched on the opportunity to coordinate with Global Atlantic and the opportunity that, that can create on the ABF side. And so no specific numbers -- excuse me, on the ABF side of KCM. No specific numbers of course, as it relates to 2026, but we think this is a growth-oriented business and we think in a really good capital markets environment, we're going to be able to grow off of that $840 million revenue number that we put up in 2021.

斯科特剛剛談到了與 Global Atlantic 協調的機會以及這可以在 ABF 方面創造的機會。所以沒有具體的數字——對不起，是 KCM 的 ABF 方面。當然沒有具體數字，因為它與2026 年有關，但我們認為這是一項以成長為導向的業務，我們認為在一個非常好的資本市場環境下，我們將能夠在8.4 億美元的收入基礎上實現增長我們在 2021 年提出。

Brian, it's Scott. Look, I think we'll go deeper on this in April when we're together. But the way we think about it, if you look back 5 years, it's really not very representative of what KCM is today and where it's going to be, to your point. So we've been globalizing the business across more of what KKR is doing around the world. We've been penetrating more of our own strategies and efforts. So for example, if you go back several years, infrastructure wasn't a very big part of the Capital Markets business, now it's a very large part of that business. And that informs our perspective on the ABF opportunity, candidly, the real estate opportunity over time.

布萊恩，這是史考特。聽著，我想我們四月聚在一起的時候會更深入地討論這個問題。但我們的思考方式是，如果你回顧 5 年前，你會發現它確實不能很好地代表 KCM 今天的情況以及它的未來發展方向。因此，我們一直在將業務全球化，涉及 KKR 在世界各地所做的更多事情。我們一直在滲透更多我們自己的策略和努力。舉例來說，如果你回到幾年前，基礎設施並不是資本市場業務的很大一部分，但現在它是這項業務的很大一部分。這告訴我們對 ABF 機會的看法，坦白說，隨著時間的推移，房地產機會也隨之而來。

And then on top of that, our portfolio is larger. So there's more refinancing. There's more exits to do in the public markets. And as our deployment goes up in our experience and our dry powder goes up, so do our capital markets opportunities. Because we can speak for larger transactions, we need to bring partners alongside, there's just more for us to do. So all of that speaks to the growth opportunity, which is why I think you're seeing this baseline, even in a pretty anemic capital market overall, continue to increase. And I think you'll continue to see that into the future as we execute on all of those fronts.

最重要的是，我們的投資組合更大。因此，還有更多的再融資。公開市場還有更多退出要做。隨著我們的部署經驗和乾粉的增加，我們的資本市場機會也隨之增加。因為我們可以代表更大的交易，所以我們需要讓合作夥伴一起參與，我們要做的還有更多。因此，所有這些都說明了成長機會，這就是為什麼我認為即使在整體相當疲軟的資本市場中，您也會看到這一基線繼續增加。我認為，當我們在所有這些方面執行任務時，您將在未來繼續看到這一點。

Next question is from the line of Benjamin Budish with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的本傑明·布迪什 (Benjamin Budish)。

I just wanted to check, I think you didn't mention in the prepared remarks, but can you share any color on your line of sight towards realization and related revenues into Q1? It sounds like on the capital market side, things are looking pretty strong. But just wondering on the realization side, anything you can share to date?

我只是想檢查一下，我認為您在準備好的評論中沒有提到，但是您能否分享一下您對第一季實現和相關收入的看法？聽起來資本市場的情況看起來相當強勁。但只是想知道實現方面，到目前為止您可以分享什麼嗎？

We have a pretty healthy pipeline as we're coming into 2024 from a monetization perspective. But what I'd say is timing is a little bit less certain given some regulatory approvals that are required around some of these monetizations. But taken together, we have somewhere around $500 million of very high visibility, monetization-related revenue. But we currently don't expect all that to hit in Q1. Obviously, still a couple of months to go in the quarter as well. And as usual, at the end of Q1, we'll provide our standard press release that gives you more detail around the monetization related revenue for the quarter.

從貨幣化的角度來看，隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們擁有相當健康的管道。但我想說的是，鑑於其中一些貨幣化需要獲得一些監管部門的批准，時機還不太確定。但總的來說，我們擁有大約 5 億美元的非常高知名度的貨幣化相關收入。但我們目前預計這一切不會在第一季發生。顯然，本季還有幾個月的時間。與往常一樣，在第一季末，我們將提供標準新聞稿，為您提供有關本季度貨幣化相關收入的更多詳細資訊。

Maybe while we're on the topic of monetization, one other thing that I think is worth calling out given the growth across a number of our businesses and also the strategic announcements that we made in November, including moving our comp down on fees and up on carry, this is just a much smaller part of our business than it used to be at KKR.

也許在我們談論貨幣化的話題時，考慮到我們許多業務的成長以及我們在 11 月發布的策略公告，我認為另一件事值得一提，包括降低費用和提高費用與以前在KKR 相比，這只是我們業務的一小部分。

It's part of the reason why you'll see us introduce this new metric in Q1, total operating earnings. Our expectation going forward is north of 70% of our earnings is going to come from total operating earnings. So of course, monetization-related revenue is going to be a big part of where we're going as a firm, it's just a lot smaller on a relative basis than it used to be.

這就是為什麼您會看到我們在第一季引入此新指標（總營業收入）的部分原因。我們預計未來 70% 以上的收入將來自總營業收入。因此，當然，與貨幣化相關的收入將成為我們公司發展方向的重要組成部分，只是相對而言比以前小得多。

Next question is from the line of Mike Brown with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

Great. I just wanted to ask on infrastructure. So strong performance there in the quarter. Can you maybe just expand on some of the key drivers behind that 5% performance in the quarter? And then if we look forward, how do you expect investor demand for this asset class to evolve? And as allocations grow, where are the dollars kind of shifting from? And then specifically on the Asia side, what's kind of making the strategy there so attractive to LPs? If you could maybe just touch on some of the deployment opportunities.

偉大的。我只是想問一下基礎設施。本季的表現非常強勁。您能否詳細闡述本季 5% 業績背後的一些關鍵驅動因素？那麼，如果我們展望未來，您預期投資者對該資產類別的需求將如何發展？隨著分配的增加，美元又從哪裡轉移？那麼，特別是在亞洲方面，是什麼讓那裡的策略對有限合夥人如此有吸引力？您可以談談一些部署機會嗎？

Why don't I begin, Mike, thanks for the question. Why don't I begin first, just as it relates to the overall framework of the infrastructure platform because, you're right, we've seen wonderful growth. So if we look back 3 years ago, AUM was $17 billion. And at 12/31, we were at about $60 billion. So we've gone from $17 billion to $60 billion, all organic. And that, as we're -- again, our infrastructure strategy is a front-burner topic for us as it relates to fundraising. We're also fundraising for a climate strategy. And we also have the wealth products that we've also launched midway through last year that we expect to continue to build in scale.

為什麼我不開始呢，麥克，謝謝你的提問。我為什麼不先開始呢，就像它涉及到基礎設施平台的整體框架一樣，因為，你是對的，我們已經看到了驚人的成長。因此，如果我們回顧 3 年前，AUM 為 170 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的資產約為 600 億美元。因此，我們的資金從 170 億美元增加到 600 億美元，全部都是有機的。而且，正如我們所言，我們的基礎設施策略對我們來說是一個熱門話題，因為它與籌款有關。我們也為氣候策略籌集資金。我們也擁有去年年中推出的理財產品，我們預計將繼續擴大規模。

So I think the growth has been really attractive and a lot of momentum. But there's a lot more for us to do, which is exciting. I think as it relates to Asia, and why don't I touch on that for a moment, it's again interesting to see the statistics there. Because I think what you're seeing there is reflects the growth as well as the diversification you're seeing across the platform. So at the end of 2019, we are looking at these stats over the weekend, we had about $21 billion of AUM in Asia. At the end of '21, we were up to $42 billion. And at the end of '23, we're at $65 billion.

因此，我認為成長確實很有吸引力，而且勢頭強勁。但我們還有很多事情要做，這令人興奮。我認為，由於它與亞洲有關，我為什麼不暫時談這一點，看到那裡的統計數據又很有趣。因為我認為你所看到的反映了你在整個平台上看到的成長和多元化。因此，到 2019 年底，我們在周末查看這些統計數據，我們在亞洲的資產管理規模約為 210 億美元。 21 年底，我們的資產達到 420 億美元。到 23 年底，我們的市值達到 650 億美元。

And so again, if you kind of step back at the end of 2019, we had $21 billion of AUM, almost 90% of that was in private equity. At the end of '23, we're at $65 billion and 51% of that is in private equity. So you've seen meaningful growth for us in the region as well as meaningful diversification across the footprint. And I think just as it relates to broad investment performance, I think it's something that the team is really proud of and we all love to see, obviously, because you've seen strong, consistent results across the flagships in particular, we're seeking mid-teens gross low-teens net returns with a 4% to 6% target annualized yield. Infra I and II, our mature funds with performance that exceeds those targets.

再說一遍，如果你退一步看 2019 年底，我們的資產管理規模為 210 億美元，其中幾乎 90% 是私募股權。截至 23 年底，我們的資產規模為 650 億美元，其中 51% 是自私募股權。因此，您已經看到我們在該地區的有意義的增長以及整個足跡的有意義的多元化。我認為，正如它與廣泛的投資績效相關一樣，我認為這是團隊真正感到自豪的事情，我們都喜歡看到，顯然，因為你已經看到了特別是旗艦產品的強勁、一致的結果，我們尋求中位數的總淨回報率和4% 至6% 的目標年化收益率。 Infra I 和 II，我們的成熟基金，其表現超越了這些目標。

In Infra III and IV, both earlier in their value creation but are tracking very nicely. I think our most recent fund is actually ahead of I, II and III when you look at the returns in that fund relative to when we made that first investment. So I think the team has been wonderfully disciplined as it relates to the investments we've made. We talk a lot about thematic approaches, renewables, digital infrastructure, data centers, fiber networks, all great examples of large critical growing markets where we think we can bring differentiated resources to bear. So again, a lot of progress, but a lot of opportunity ahead for us at the same time.

在 Infra III 和 IV 中，兩者都處於價值創造的早期，但追蹤得非常好。我認為，當你查看該基金相對於我們第一次投資時的回報時，我們最近的基金實際上領先於 I、II 和 III。因此，我認為該團隊紀律嚴明，這與我們所做的投資有關。我們談論了很多主題方法、再生能源、數位基礎設施、資料中心、光纖網絡，所有這些都是大型關鍵成長市場的好例子，我們認為我們可以在這些市場上發揮差異化的資源。再說一次，我們取得了很大的進步，但同時我們也面臨著許多機會。

Mike, it's Scott. Just I think in terms of your question about performance in the quarter, it was broad-based. There's nothing that we pointed to, specifically. The portfolio has been assembled incredibly thoughtfully, as Craig mentioned, and is performing very nicely. And as expected, ahead of expectations. In terms of your question about investor demand where it's shifting from, I mean, for the most part, we've seen people creating allocation to the infrastructure over the last several years. It hasn't really been a shift out of other parts of alternatives to some extent, where we've seen alternative allocations to increase, it's to be able to accommodate an infrastructure allocation.

麥克，這是斯科特。我認為就您有關本季業績的問題而言，這是一個廣泛的問題。我們沒有特別指出什麼。正如克雷格所提到的，該產品組合的組合經過深思熟慮，並且表現得非常出色。正如預期的那樣，超出了預期。至於你關於投資者需求從何而來的問題，我的意思是，在很大程度上，我們已經看到人們在過去幾年中為基礎設施進行了配置。在某種程度上，這並不是真正從替代方案的其他部分轉移出來的，我們已經看到替代方案的分配增加，它是為了能夠適應基礎設施的分配。

And I think a lot of that as investors have focused on the fact you've got a real asset that is mission critical, has an attractive yield. And the way we do it is to have to have that contractual yield and it is inflation protected, so it's also viewed as an inflation hedge. And I think as people have done the work on the space, you've started to see more and more dollars flow into it. So largely speaking, and none of these comments are universal, but largely speaking, it's been an and as opposed to an or.

我認為，投資人在很大程度上關注的是這樣一個事實：你擁有一項關鍵任務、具有有吸引力的收益率的實際資產。我們這樣做的方式是必須擁有合約收益率並且它受到通貨膨脹保護，因此它也被視為通貨膨脹對沖。我認為，隨著人們在這個領域開展工作，你會開始看到越來越多的資金流入其中。總的來說，這些評論都不是普遍適用的，但總體來說，它是 and 而非 or 的對立面。

And I think on Asia, Craig hit it. I mean our Asia Infra business has gone from a standing start to $10 billion of AUM in 4 years. We have a great team on the ground. They're leveraging our Pan-Asia presence across our 9 offices. And as you know, we run the firm as one firm, so everybody helps each other. I think that's really allowed us to scale very rapidly in that market. There's a significant amount of capital required to develop infrastructure all across Asia in those themes that Craig just walked you through. And candidly, on the margin, there's less competition in Asia, because fewer firms have built the platform that we've built. So I think large opportunity, fewer competitors, firm well integrated.

我認為克雷格在亞洲取得了成功。我的意思是，我們的亞洲基礎設施業務在 4 年內從起步發展到資產管理規模 100 億美元。我們有一支優秀的團隊。他們正在利用我們在泛亞洲的 9 個辦事處的影響力。如您所知，我們將公司作為一家公司來運營，因此每個人都互相幫助。我認為這確實使我們能夠在該市場上快速擴張。在克雷格剛剛向您介紹的這些主題中，開發整個亞洲的基礎設施需要大量資金。坦白說，亞洲的競爭較少，因為建立我們建立的平台的公司較少。所以我認為機會大，競爭對手少，公司整合得很好。

Our next question is from the line of Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just wanted to ask about insurance. I was hoping you might be able to talk about the opportunity to expand the organic insurance origination, how much you expect to do annually there. Maybe talk about some of the opportunities around getting on more platforms, how meaningful could that be at this point. And if interest rates were to come down, what sort of impact might that have for customer demand and origination volumes. And maybe you could also speak to some of the pipelines from new blocks, which you guys have been quite active with.

只是想問一下保​​險的事。我希望您能夠談論擴大有機保險起源的機會，您期望每年在那裡做什麼。也許可以談談進入更多平台的一些機會，在這一點上這有多有意義。如果利率下降，可能會對客戶需求和發起量產生什麼樣的影響。也許你也可以談談新區塊的一些管道，你們一直都非常活躍。

Thanks for the question, Mike. Why don't I start. So over the last few years, our individual business is done, on average, around $10 billion of production. And you're right, you've seen a step-up across the industry, given, I think, higher rates, but I don't think that tells the full story. I think what we're seeing is a real trend towards retirement products. It's probably somewhat agnostic to where interest rates are. And as we think about Global Atlantic and how we're situated specifically in the individual markets, I think there's a lot of share that we continue to take there, getting ramped up on some new platforms, as you suggested.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。我為什麼不開始。因此，在過去幾年中，我們的個人業務平均產值約為 100 億美元。你是對的，你已經看到整個行業的進步，我認為，考慮到更高的利率，但我認為這並不能說明一切。我認為我們看到的是退休產品的真正趨勢。它可能在某種程度上不可知利率的水平。當我們考慮 Global Atlantic 以及我們如何在各個市場中具體定位時，我認為我們將繼續在那裡佔據大量份額，並在一些新平台上獲得成長，正如您所建議的那樣。

Also historically, Global Atlantic hasn't been as active in the more longer duration fixed annuity market, the 7- to 10-year product. We think there's some market share gains that we can have there. And we do have an expectation that we could take the individual business over time from $10 billion of production to $15 billion to $20 billion of production.

同樣，從歷史上看，Global Atlantic 在期限較長的固定年金市場（即 7 至 10 年期產品）中並不活躍。我們認為我們可以在那裡獲得一些市場份額。我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，我們可以將單一業務的產值從 100 億美元提高到 150 億至 200 億美元。

Then on the institutional side of our business, there's 3 components of it. It's not just the block business where we've had a lot of success over the last couple of quarters. Clearly, with MetLife closing in Q4, the Manulife block closing in the first half of the year and a really strong pipeline of opportunity, both domestically and especially internationally.

然後在我們業務的機構方面，它有 3 個組成部分。過去幾個季度我們取得了巨大成功的不僅僅是區塊業務。顯然，隨著大都會人壽在第四季關閉，宏利集團也在今年上半年關閉，無論是在國內還是國際上，機會都非常強大。

But there's a couple of other aspects of our institutional business that we're really excited about. We've become a real leader in flow reinsurance in the marketplace. Again, that's both domestic and international. And to date, we have very little market share in the pension risk transfer market, where we think the capabilities of our team will really resonate in that market as well.

但我們的機構業務還有其他一些方面讓我們非常興奮。我們已成為市場流量再保險的真正領導者。再說一次，這既是國內的，也是國際的。迄今為止，我們在退休金風險轉移市場上的市佔率非常小，我們認為我們團隊的能力也將在該市場中真正引起共鳴。

So it's an opportunity for us to take share in what is a large and growing end market. And so when we take it together, it's what gives us the confidence that you would have heard in our November call, really working as one firm to be able to accelerate the growth of the Global Atlantic platform over the next several years.

因此，這對我們來說是一個在龐大且不斷成長的終端市場中分一杯羹的機會。因此，當我們綜合考慮時，這給了我們信心，您會在我們 11 月的電話會議中聽到，真正作為一家公司共同努力，能夠在未來幾年加速全球大西洋平台的成長。

Now an important part of that growth, and I referenced in our prepared remarks, relates to our ability to also be able to access third-party capital. And so our Ivy funds and strategies is a big part of where we're going as an organization. We've got a lot of momentum there. So I mentioned earlier, 75% of the capital required in the 2 block deals that we've got in flight right now, the MetLife one that just closed and Manulife is going to be funded by third parties, by outside investors.

現在，這種成長的一個重要部分，我在我們準備好的發言中提到，與我們獲得第三方資本的能力有關。因此，我們的常春藤基金和策略是我們作為組織的發展方向的重要組成部分。我們在那裡有很大的動力。所以我之前提到過，我們現在正在進行的兩筆交易（剛完成的大都會人壽交易和宏利人壽交易）所需的資金的 75% 將由第三方、外部投資者提供資金。

And we think that combination of GA balance sheet capital and third-party investors is really what the optimal structure looks like, especially for the institutional side of our business going forward.

我們認為，GA 資產負債表資本和第三方投資者的結合確實是最佳結構，特別是對於我們未來業務的機構方面。

The next question is a follow-up from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

下一個問題是 Bill Katz 和 TD Cowen 的後續問題。

I just want to circle back to capital management for a moment. Appreciate you just raised the dividend by 6%. But if I start doing the math and look out to $4.50 of earnings power, and Rob, to your point, that more and more of your business is going to be more recurring in nature, and then just sort of think about sort of low single-digit type of dividend hikes that's been sort of more recent past, your dividend payout ratio is going to drop pretty dramatically and then the yield on the stock is going to be relatively negligible. How are you thinking about cap return? I know there was a big discussion point at the November update. It's a rich man's issue, I presume. But how do we think about maybe priorities from here capital return versus deployment strategically?

我只想暫時回到資本管理。感謝您剛剛將股息提高了 6%。但如果我開始計算並關注 4.50 美元的盈利能力，羅布，就你的觀點而言，你的業務越來越多地會在本質上更加經常性，然後只需考慮某種低單-數字類型的股息上漲是最近的過去，你的股息支付率將大幅下降，然後股票的收益率將相對可以忽略不計。您如何看待上限回報？我知道 11 月更新中有一個重要的討論點。我猜這是有錢人的問題。但是，我們如何考慮資本回報與策略部署之間的優先事項？

Sure. Thanks, Bill. So why don't I start on the dividend policy and then just, I think, more importantly, talk about our overall approach to capital allocation, which is of equal importance. So on dividend policy, we really like our policy a lot. We started with a fixed dividend of $0.50 annually when we converted to a C Corp 5 years ago. And every year, we have increased that dividend. And we believe we've got the visibility going forward to have consistent and stable growth to our dividend. And so we like our dividend policy.

當然。謝謝，比爾。那麼，我為什麼不從股利政策開始，然後，我認為，更重要的是，談談我們資本配置的整體方法，這同樣重要。因此，在股利政策方面，我們非常喜歡我們的政策。 5 年前，當我們轉為 C 型企業時，我們開始每年支付 0.50 美元的固定股息。每年，我們都會增加股利。我們相信，我們有能力實現股息持續穩定的成長。所以我們喜歡我們的股利政策。

Now a big reason why we have the dividend policy that we have is because we see so much opportunity to be able to invest back into KKR's business for growth. And you've heard us talk about our capital allocation policy for some time in a very consistent way. And I don't think there's anything more important from the capital allocation policy than being consistent.

現在我們實行股息政策的一個重要原因是我們看到了許多機會重新投資 KKR 的業務以實現成長。一段時間以來，您已經聽到我們以非常一致的方式談論我們的資本配置政策。我認為資本配置政策沒有什麼比保持一致性更重要的了。

And our approach is to optimize for recurring and growth-oriented earnings per share. And we've talked about 4 core areas, strategic areas of deployment from our excess free cash flow back into our business. And those are going to come in insurance, core private equity, strategic M&A and share buybacks.

我們的方法是優化經常性和成長型每股盈餘。我們已經討論了 4 個核心領域，即從我們多餘的自由現金流回流到我們的業務的策略部署領域。這些將來自保險、核心私募股權、策略併購和股票回購。

And so I think we feel very fortunate that because of the business model we have, the brand we have, the access to capital we have and distribution, that we've got the opportunity to be able to invest back into our business at high levels of ROE that are going to drive really recurring and growth-oriented earnings per share over a long period of time for our investors.

因此，我認為我們感到非常幸運，因為我們擁有的商業模式、我們擁有的品牌、我們擁有的資本和分銷渠道，我們有機會能夠對我們的業務進行高水平的投資股本回報率將在很長一段時間內為我們的投資者帶來真正的經常性和成長型每股盈餘。

So that's our focus. We feel really good about our approach to capital allocation. I think it's a real core competency of our management team, and think that that's what's going to drive the highest amount of ultimate shareholder accretion for a long period of time. And of course, it's very much a highly aligned decision since the management team of KKR own 25-plus percent of the stock.

這就是我們的重點。我們對我們的資本配置方法感到非常滿意。我認為這是我們管理團隊真正的核心能力，並認為這將在很長一段時間內推動最高的最終股東增值。當然，這是一個高度一致的決定，因為 KKR 的管理團隊擁有 25% 以上的股票。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And I'll turn the call over to Craig Larson for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我將把電話轉給克雷格·拉爾森 (Craig Larson) 作結束語。

Rob, thanks for your help. And thank you, everyone, for joining this call. We know that with our announcements that we made in late November, earnings today and with Investor Day on the horizon on April 10, we're asking everyone to spend a healthy amount of time on all things KKR. Just want to thank everybody in advance for investing the time. Look forward, again, in particular, to the deep dive on April 10. And if you have any questions following this call, please, of course, reach out to us directly. Thank you so much.

羅布，謝謝你的幫忙。感謝大家參加這次電話會議。我們知道，根據我們在 11 月底發布的公告、今天的收益以及即將到來的 4 月 10 日投資者日，我們要求每個人在 KKR 的所有事情上花費大量的時間。只是想提前感謝大家投入時間。再次特別期待 4 月 10 日的深入探討。如果您在本次電話會議後有任何疑問，當然請直接與我們聯繫。太感謝了。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。並感謝您的參與。