KKR & Co Inc (KKR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to KKR's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    女士們,先生們,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 KKR 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在錄製此會議。

  • I will now hand the call over to Craig Larson, Head of Investor Relations for KKR. Craig, please go ahead.

    我現在將電話轉交給 KKR 投資者關係主管 Craig Larson。克雷格,請繼續。

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter 2023 earnings call. As usual, for the call, I'm joined by Scott Nuttall, our co-Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Lewin, our Chief Financial Officer. We'd like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release, which is available on the Investor Center section at kkr.com. And as a reminder, we report our segment numbers on an adjusted share basis.

    謝謝你,運營商。大家下午好,歡迎來到我們的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。像往常一樣,我們的聯席首席執行官 Scott Nuttall 也參加了電話會議;和我們的首席財務官 Rob Lewin。我們想提醒大家,我們將在電話會議上提及非 GAAP 指標,這些指標與我們新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據相一致,可在 kkr.com 的投資者中心部分獲取。提醒一下,我們在調整後的份額基礎上報告我們的部門數量。

  • This call will contain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for cautionary factors about these statements.

    本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,不保證未來事件或業績。有關這些聲明的警示因素,請參閱我們的收益發布和美國證券交易委員會備案。

  • This quarter, fee-related earnings per share came in at $0.62, and after-tax distributable earnings came in at $0.81 per share. I'm going to begin the call by walking through the details for the quarter before turning things over to Rob. So beginning with management fees. Management fee growth continues to be a real bright spot for us. In Q1, management fees were $738 million. That's up 18% year-over-year, and looking over the last 12 months, management fees are up 23%.

    本季度,與費用相關的每股收益為 0.62 美元,稅後可分配收益為每股 0.81 美元。在將事情交給 Rob 之前,我將通過介紹本季度的詳細信息來開始通話。所以從管理費開始。管理費的增長對我們來說仍然是一個真正的亮點。第一季度,管理費為 7.38 億美元。同比增長 18%,回顧過去 12 個月,管理費上漲了 23%。

  • Looking a little deeper, over the last 12 months, management fees in private equity and credit both increased 18%, while in real assets, management fees are up 40%. Net transaction and monitoring fees were $142 million for the quarter, $102 million of which came from our Capital Markets business. Our fee-related compensation margin was at the midpoint for the quarter at 22.5% and other operating expenses were $150 million. So putting that together, fee-related earnings were $549 million for the quarter or $0.62 per share, which I mentioned a moment ago, and that's with an FRE margin of 61%. This is now the tenth consecutive quarter where you've seen our FRE margin at or above that 60% level.

    從更深層次看,在過去 12 個月中,私募股權和信貸的管理費均增長了 18%,而實物資產的管理費增長了 40%。本季度的淨交易和監控費用為 1.42 億美元,其中 1.02 億美元來自我們的資本市場業務。我們與費用相關的薪酬利潤率處於本季度的中點,為 22.5%,其他運營費用為 1.5 億美元。因此,綜合起來,本季度與費用相關的收益為 5.49 億美元或每股 0.62 美元,這是我剛才提到的,而且 FRE 利潤率為 61%。這是您連續第十個季度看到我們的 FRE 利潤率達到或超過 60% 的水平。

  • Walking further down the income statement. Realized performance income totaled $175 million, driven by our traditional and core private equity businesses, and realized investment income was $198 million for the quarter, driven by activity in growth equity. Both realized performance and investment income compensation margins were at their midpoints for the quarter. Our asset management operating earnings were $778 million, and our insurance segment generated $205 million of pretax operating earnings, which I'll spend another minute on shortly. So in aggregate, this resulted in after-tax distributable earnings of $719 million or $0.81 per share.

    進一步向下走損益表。在我們的傳統和核心私募股權業務的推動下,實現業績收入總計 1.75 億美元,在增長股權活動的推動下,本季度實現的投資收入為 1.98 億美元。已實現業績和投資收入薪酬利潤率均處於本季度的中點。我們的資產管理營業收入為 7.78 億美元,我們的保險部門產生了 2.05 億美元的稅前營業收入,稍後我將再花一點時間。因此,總的來說,這導致稅後可分配收益為 7.19 億美元或每股 0.81 美元。

  • Now turning to investment performance. The traditional private equity business was up 2% for the quarter, and over the last 12 months, was down 9%. Importantly here, inception-to-date IRRs for our blended flagship funds, so Americas XII, Europe V and Asia IV remained strong at 22%, which is meaningfully ahead of the corresponding 7% figure for the MSCI World. In real assets, the real estate portfolio was down 3% in Q1. While we are all seeing a difficult market for a handful of areas within real estate, our portfolio continues to be heavily weighted towards those assets and themes where you're seeing strong fundamentals and cash flow growth. So think industrial assets, data centers, rental housing, student housing and storage. However, as cap rates increased in the quarter, that more than offset NOI growth, leading to the modest decline in the portfolio for the quarter.

    現在轉向投資業績。傳統私募股權業務本季度增長 2%,而在過去 12 個月中下降了 9%。重要的是,我們的混合旗艦基金從成立至今的 IRR,因此美洲 XII、歐洲 V 和亞洲 IV 保持強勁,為 22%,大大高於 MSCI World 相應的 7% 數字。在實物資產方面,第一季度房地產投資組合下降了 3%。雖然我們都看到房地產中少數幾個領域的市場艱難,但我們的投資組合繼續偏重於那些您看到強勁的基本面和現金流增長的資產和主題。所以想想工業資產、數據中心、出租房、學生宿舍和倉庫。然而,隨著本季度資本化率的上升,這抵消了 NOI 的增長,導致本季度投資組合溫和下降。

  • Infrastructure was up 7% in the quarter. This performance reflects the strength of our infrastructure portfolio on a global basis. And with higher interest rates, we've strategically leaned into more inflation-protected assets. On the leveraged credit side, the portfolio was up 4% in the quarter, outperforming its index, while the alternative credit portfolio was up 2%. And for the balance sheet, investment performance was flat in Q1.

    基礎設施在本季度增長了 7%。這一業績反映了我們在全球基礎設施組合的實力。隨著利率上升,我們在戰略上傾向於更多的抗通脹資產。在槓桿信貸方面,該投資組合在本季度上漲了 4%,表現優於其指數,而另類信貸投資組合上漲了 2%。對於資產負債表,第一季度的投資表現持平。

  • Now, in addition, we have 2 new updates that can be seen through the earnings release. First, I briefly mentioned our insurance results this quarter. Turning back to this topic, we expect you saw the recast financials we posted last week on our website and also filed through an 8-K. These changes reflected 2 things: first, per FASB guidance and as required for all SEC filers, we implemented the accounting principles of LDTI within KKR's insurance segment to reflect the new accounting standards for long-duration contracts such as life insurance and annuities. Overall, the impact here on our segment financials are quite modest. There was a $1 million positive impact to 2021 pretax insurance segment operating earnings and a $74 million positive impact to 2022 pretax insurance segment operating earnings.

    現在,此外,我們還有 2 個新的更新,可以通過收益發布看到。首先,我簡要介紹了本季度我們的保險業績。回到這個話題,我們希望您看到我們上週在我們的網站上發布的重鑄財務數據,並通過 8-K 提交。這些變化反映了兩件事:首先,根據 FASB 指南和所有 SEC 備案人的要求,我們在 KKR 的保險部門實施了 LDTI 會計原則,以反映人壽保險和年金等長期合同的新會計準則。總的來說,這裡對我們部門財務的影響是相當溫和的。對 2021 年稅前保險部門營業收入產生了 100 萬美元的積極影響,對 2022 年稅前保險部門營業收入產生了 7400 萬美元的積極影響。

  • And in terms of 12/31 book value, there is an increase of $480 million. And second, to conform to other alternative asset management companies and enhance comparability, we're reporting our insurance segment operating earnings on a pretax, not an after-tax basis. So as you look at Page 3 of the earnings release, income taxes attributable to KKR's asset management and our insurance segment are now captured within that single line item titled Income Taxes on operating earnings. The 8-K referenced a moment ago recast our financials reflecting all of these changes for 2021 as well as on a quarterly basis for 2022 to help everyone look at our results on a comparable basis.

    而按 12/31 賬面價值計算,增加了 4.8 億美元。其次,為了與其他另類資產管理公司保持一致並提高可比性,我們以稅前而不是稅後的方式報告保險部門的營業收入。因此,當您查看收益發布的第 3 頁時,歸屬於 KKR 資產管理和我們保險部門的所得稅現在包含在標題為“營業收入所得稅”的單行項目中。剛才提到的 8-K 重鑄了我們的財務數據,反映了 2021 年的所有這些變化以及 2022 年的季度數據,以幫助每個人在可比的基礎上查看我們的結果。

  • And the second change within our press release you'll see on Page 25. We have included additional disclosure on our core private equity strategy. With $34 billion of AUM, we believe we have the largest core PE asset management business in the world. And core PE remains the largest allocation we have on our balance sheet so we thought the additional disclosure and context would be helpful for investors this quarter as well as in quarters to come. As a reminder, this is a long-duration investment strategy for us, where we expect to hold investments for 10- to 15-plus years and believe these investments carry a more modest risk return profile compared to traditional PE.

    您將在第 25 頁看到我們新聞稿中的第二個變化。我們對我們的核心私募股權戰略進行了額外披露。憑藉 340 億美元的資產管理規模,我們相信我們擁有全球最大的核心私募股權資產管理業務。核心 PE 仍然是我們資產負債表上最大的配置,因此我們認為額外的披露和背景信息將對本季度和未來幾個季度的投資者有所幫助。提醒一下,這對我們來說是一種長期投資策略,我們希望持有 10 到 15 年以上的投資,並相信與傳統 PE 相比,這些投資的風險回報率更為適中。

  • And as you can see on the page, our core PE balance sheet investments have increased steadily from $1.4 billion in 2018 to over $5.7 billion of fair value today. The $5.7 billion of fair value compares to the $2.7 billion of costs or 2.1x of cost currently, a strong return over approximately 5 years. In total, core comprises approximately 32% of total balance sheet investments and consists of 19 companies across multiple industries and geographies. And with a little over 20% of total PE capital invested in the last 12 months into core PE, we remain very active in the space.

    正如您在頁面上看到的那樣,我們的核心 PE 資產負債表投資已從 2018 年的 14 億美元穩步增長到今天的超過 57 億美元的公允價值。 57 億美元的公允價值與 27 億美元的成本或目前成本的 2.1 倍相比,在大約 5 年內回報強勁。總體而言,核心業務約佔資產負債表總投資的 32%,由來自多個行業和地區的 19 家公司組成。在過去 12 個月中,有超過 20% 的私募股權資本投資於核心私募股權,我們在該領域仍然非常活躍。

  • And one final note. Consistent with historical practice, we increased our dividend to $0.165 per share per quarter or $0.66 on an annualized basis. This is now the fourth consecutive year we've increased our dividend since we changed our corporate structure. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Rob.

    最後一點。與歷史慣例一致,我們將股息增加至每季度每股 0.165 美元或按年計算為 0.66 美元。自從我們改變公司結構以來,這已經是我們連續第四年增加股息。因此,我很高興將電話轉給 Rob。

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Thanks a lot, Craig. Past few months have certainly continued to be dynamic on the macro front. However, different backdrops do create opportunities, especially for firms like ours that have substantial locked-up capital, a significant amount of dry powder and a global and highly coordinated investment team with expertise that spans multiple different asset classes. I thought it would be helpful this morning to go through what we are experiencing day-to-day across the firm.

    非常感謝,克雷格。過去幾個月在宏觀方面肯定繼續充滿活力。然而,不同的背景確實創造了機會,特別是對於像我們這樣擁有大量鎖定資本、大量幹火藥以及具有跨越多個不同資產類別的專業知識的全球高度協調的投資團隊的公司。我認為今天早上回顧一下我們在整個公司的日常經歷會很有幫助。

  • Let's start with fundraising. We raised $12 billion of capital in the quarter. In private equity, activity this quarter included the final close on European Fund VI at $8 billion, which is approximately 20% larger than its predecessor. It's a really great outcome in what is the most challenged part of the fundraising market and now gives us $40 billion of committed capital in total, looking at our active traditional PE funds across Asia, North America and Europe. We believe this is the largest active capital base for traditional private equity by a wide margin.

    讓我們從籌款開始。我們在本季度籌集了 120 億美元的資金。在私募股權方面,本季度的活動包括 European Fund VI 的最終收盤價為 80 億美元,比其前身高出約 20%。在籌款市場中最具挑戰性的部分,這是一個非常好的結果,現在我們總共獲得了 400 億美元的承諾資本,看看我們在亞洲、北美和歐洲活躍的傳統 PE 基金。我們認為這是傳統私募股權最大的活躍資本基礎。

  • In credit and liquid strategies, we raised almost $9 billion in Q1, which is just about what we raised on average per quarter in 2022. In total, though, the $12 billion of new capital raised is a little bit on the lighter side for us. Scott is going to follow up with a little more color on the fundraising environment in a few minutes.

    在信貸和流動性策略方面,我們在第一季度籌集了近 90 億美元,這與我們在 2022 年平均每個季度籌集的資金差不多。不過,總的來說,新籌集的 120 億美元資金對我們來說有點輕鬆.斯科特將在幾分鐘內跟進籌款環境的更多色彩。

  • Now against this backdrop, we still do feel incredibly fortunate for a few reasons. First, since 2020, we've raised approximately $60 billion of capital for our traditional private equity and core private equity franchises. Given all the flagships raised over this period, 2023 was never going to be an outsized fundraising year for us. So our focus in private equity is on investing the capital that we have previously raised. And we have almost as dry powder as we've ever had as a firm to invest into the dislocated environment.

    現在在這種背景下,我們仍然感到非常幸運,原因有幾個。首先,自 2020 年以來,我們已經為我們的傳統私募股權和核心私募股權特許經營籌集了大約 600 億美元的資金。考慮到在此期間籌集的所有旗艦產品,2023 年對我們來說永遠不會是一個超大規模的籌款年。因此,我們在私募股權領域的重點是投資我們之前籌集的資金。我們擁有幾乎與以往一樣的干火藥,可以投資於混亂的環境。

  • Now to be clear, we are still in the market fundraising for 30-plus strategies, largely in real assets and credit over the next 12 to 18 months, and our fundraising teams remain highly engaged with our clients. Second, we continue to make progress against our strategic priorities. As an example, we've talked to private wealth and democratized products several times on these calls. And we are pleased that since our last earnings call, our democratized private equity vehicle outside the U.S. raised over $400 million on just one platform at its first close, which will show up in our Q2 results. It's a great start for us and we hope to build on this momentum with the wire houses as the domestic vehicle comes online in the second half of the year.

    現在需要明確的是,在未來 12 至 18 個月內,我們仍在為 30 多種策略進行市場籌資,主要是實物資產和信貸,我們的籌資團隊仍與客戶保持高度互動。其次,我們繼續在我們的戰略重點方面取得進展。例如,我們在這些電話中多次與私人財富和民主化產品進行了交談。我們很高興自上次財報電話會議以來,我們在美國以外的民主化私募股權工具在第一次收盤時僅在一個平台上籌集了超過 4 億美元,這將顯示在我們第二季度的業績中。這對我們來說是一個良好的開端,我們希望在今年下半年國內汽車上線時,利用電線房繼續保持這種勢頭。

  • And in terms of our democratized infrastructure strategy, our U.S. vehicle is expecting a first close over the summer, while its international counterpart is right on its heels with a first close expected soon thereafter. We are really excited about both of these strategies. And while we're in the earlier days, we're pleased with initial reception and enthusiasm. The launch of these products is a critical step in addressing the huge private wealth end market and bringing products that traditionally have largely not been accessible to noninstitutional clients on a global scale.

    就我們的民主化基礎設施戰略而言,我們的美國車輛預計將在夏季首次關閉,而其國際同行緊隨其後,預計很快將首次關閉。我們對這兩種策略感到非常興奮。雖然我們還處於早期階段,但我們對最初的接待和熱情感到滿意。這些產品的推出是解決龐大的私人財富終端市場並在全球範圍內為非機構客戶帶來傳統上基本上無法獲得的產品的關鍵一步。

  • And third, on the insurance front, momentum really does continue at Global Atlantic. AUM at GA has almost doubled since we announced the acquisition in July 2020 from $72 billion to $142 billion today. And since the transaction closed in early 2021, our share of book value has increased from $2.9 billion to $4.4 billion. In terms of Q1, financial performance continued to run ahead of our expectations and capital raising remains robust. While GA did not announce any block transactions in Q1, our pipeline here of compelling opportunities remains quite strong, and we would expect greater activity over time.

    第三,在保險方面,Global Atlantic 的勢頭確實在繼續。自我們在 2020 年 7 月宣布收購以來,GA 的 AUM 幾乎翻了一番,從 720 億美元增至今天的 1420 億美元。自 2021 年初交易完成以來,我們的賬面價值份額從 29 億美元增加到 44 億美元。就第一季度而言,財務業績繼續超出我們的預期,融資仍然強勁。雖然 GA 沒有在第一季度宣布任何大宗交易,但我們在這裡的誘人機會管道仍然非常強大,我們預計隨著時間的推移會有更多的活動。

  • Turning now to deployment. We have $106 billion of dry powder, which is close to a record figure for us and feel really excited about the investing environment that we are currently in, so we remain incredibly well positioned to build the portfolio for the future.

    現在轉向部署。我們擁有 1060 億美元的干粉,這對我們來說接近創紀錄的數字,並且對我們目前所處的投資環境感到非常興奮,因此我們仍然非常有能力為未來建立投資組合。

  • And looking what our teams have done more recently, we continue to be pretty creative of putting that capital to work. In European Private Equity, we announced the acquisition of FGS Global, a leading strategic communications advisory firm. This is the latest example of the team's focus on proprietary opportunities where we can provide long-term capital and a global network of resources to help an entrepreneurial, world-class management team that we've known and worked with for over a decade.

    看看我們的團隊最近所做的事情,我們繼續非常有創意地將這些資金投入使用。在歐洲私募股權領域,我們宣布收購領先的戰略傳播諮詢公司 FGS Global。這是團隊專注於專有機會的最新例子,我們可以在其中提供長期資本和全球資源網絡,以幫助我們認識並與之合作十多年的創業型世界級管理團隊。

  • In infrastructure, we closed on the acquisition of Vantage Towers in partnership with Vodafone. Vantage is our latest take-private transaction. We have announced or closed on 10 take-privates since the beginning of 2022. An investment largely from our diversified core Infra Fund, Vantage is the second largest telecom tower company in Europe. And in our credit business, we are very constructive on the risk reward we're seeing today in the market. As the syndicated loan markets have remained choppy, new issue volumes are down over 50% year-to-date. Companies looking for debt capital continue to increasingly look to the private credit markets where base rates are up, spreads are wider and lender protections are more significant. We believe that we are in the best direct lending environment that we have seen for the past 10-plus years.

    在基礎設施方面,我們與沃達丰合作完成了對 Vantage Towers 的收購。 Vantage 是我們最新的私有化交易。自 2022 年初以來,我們已經宣布或完成了 10 項私有化交易。Vantage 是歐洲第二大電信塔公司,主要來自我們多元化的核心 Infra 基金的投資。在我們的信貸業務中,我們對今天在市場上看到的風險回報非常有建設性。由於銀團貸款市場持續動盪,今年迄今新發行量下降了 50% 以上。尋求債務資本的公司繼續越來越多地關注基準利率上升、利差擴大且貸方保護更為重要的私人信貸市場。我們相信,我們正處於過去 10 多年以來最好的直接借貸環境中。

  • Now with interesting deployment, which largely comes from higher volatility does come a more challenged monetization environment. The environment here continues to be quiet and our expectation is that it will remain soft for much of 2023. However, as we've discussed in prior calls, our business model has multiple advantages. And one of them is that 90-plus percent of our capital is locked up for the long term or is perpetual in nature. So we are not core sellers, and we won't look to aggressively monetize our portfolio unless it's into a window that maximizes outcomes for our investors.

    現在有了有趣的部署,這主要來自更高的波動性,確實帶來了更具挑戰性的貨幣化環境。這裡的環境繼續平靜,我們預計它在 2023 年的大部分時間裡都將保持疲軟。但是,正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣,我們的商業模式具有多重優勢。其中之一是我們 90% 以上的資本被長期鎖定或永久鎖定。因此,我們不是核心賣家,我們不會尋求積極地將我們的投資組合貨幣化,除非它進入了一個窗口,可以為我們的投資者帶來最大的收益。

  • Even with the volatility and markdowns we have appropriately taken over the last 12 to 15 months, we maintain over $9 billion of embedded gains on our balance sheet. So if we never made another investment and created no additional value or returns, we are positioned to generate $9-plus billion of monetization-related revenue. The key message you're hearing from us today is that we remain highly confident in our portfolio and we'll optimize the monetization outcome when it is most advantageous to our investors.

    即使我們在過去 12 到 15 個月中適當地應對了波動和降價,我們的資產負債表上仍保持著超過 90 億美元的嵌入式收益。因此,如果我們不再進行另一項投資,也沒有創造額外的價值或回報,我們就有能力產生超過 90 億美元的貨幣化相關收入。您今天從我們這裡聽到的關鍵信息是,我們對我們的投資組合仍然充滿信心,我們將在對投資者最有利的時候優化貨幣化結果。

  • So to summarize, while the past several months have presented a more challenging operating environment, it has not changed our long-term outlook. We continue to have more conviction in our ability to meet our goals. FRE of $4-plus per share and after-tax DE of $7-plus per share by 2026 than we did when we first issued that guidance in late 2021. In our teaching materials posted at the beginning of this year, we introduced 6 very significant drivers of value creation for KKR. These areas, real assets, Asia Pacific, core private equity, private wealth, insurance as well as the opportunities afforded to us through our balance sheet continue to position us for substantial growth and that is why we have the confidence that we do in our long-term fundamentals. With that, let me hand it off to Scott.

    總而言之,雖然過去幾個月呈現出更具挑戰性的經營環境,但這並沒有改變我們的長期前景。我們繼續堅信我們有能力實現我們的目標。與我們在 2021 年底首次發布該指南時相比,到 2026 年每股 FRE 超過 4 美元,稅後 DE 超過每股 7 美元。在今年年初發布的教材中,我們介紹了 6 個非常重要的KKR 價值創造的驅動力。這些領域、實物資產、亞太地區、核心私募股權、私人財富、保險以及通過我們的資產負債表為我們提供的機會繼續為我們的大幅增長做好準備,這就是為什麼我們有信心在我們的長期- 長期基本面。有了這個,讓我把它交給斯科特。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Rob, and thank you, everybody, for joining our call today. I thought today, I'd talk about what we're seeing near term and how we're feeling longer term. Near term, the market volatility is doing 3 things: it's causing some institutional asset allocators to be more cautious and delay decisions. It's making us want to sell less of our portfolio, and it's creating some very attractive investment opportunities for us.

    謝謝 Rob,也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我想今天,我會談談我們近期所看到的以及我們對長期的看法。短期內,市場波動在做三件事:它導致一些機構資產配置者更加謹慎並推遲決策。這讓我們想出售更少的投資組合,並為我們創造了一些非常有吸引力的投資機會。

  • On the fundraising front, we are seeing some investors pause as they get their bearings. This is, in particular, true in some U.S. and European institutions. It has not been the case in other areas. Until this changes, it will likely slow down capital formation in the near term for some of our efforts. We don't expect this to have a big impact on the firm for a couple of reasons. First, as Rob noted, we are not in the market with our flagship PE funds this year. We expect those to come back to market in 2024 and 2025. Frankly, we're fortunate with that timing.

    在籌款方面,我們看到一些投資者在了解情況後猶豫不決。在美國和歐洲的一些機構中尤其如此。其他地區並非如此。在這種情況發生變化之前,它可能會在短期內減緩我們的一些努力的資本形成。由於幾個原因,我們預計這不會對公司產生重大影響。首先,正如 Rob 指出的那樣,我們今年沒有在市場上推出我們的旗艦 PE 基金。我們預計這些產品將在 2024 年和 2025 年重返市場。坦率地說,我們很幸運能趕上這個時機。

  • We have been actively raising capital, however, for our nonprivate equity businesses. To put some numbers to this, new capital raised over the last 12 months totaled $67 billion. $63 billion or 95% of that number was raised in strategies outside of traditional private equity funds. Given the growth in scaling across our credit and real asset platforms, we are meaningfully more diversified across strategies than someone less familiar with KKR would likely expect. Second, we are seeing the benefit of increased diversification across our distribution channels and are less reliant on any one type of investor than we used to be.

    然而,我們一直在為我們的非私募股權業務積極籌集資金。為了說明這一點,過去 12 個月籌集的新資本總額為 670 億美元。 630 億美元(其中 95%)是通過傳統私募股權基金以外的策略籌集的。鑑於我們的信貸和實物資產平台規模的增長,我們在戰略上的多元化程度比不太熟悉 KKR 的人可能預期的要有意義得多。其次,我們看到了分銷渠道多元化的好處,而且我們對任何一種類型投資者的依賴都比過去少。

  • As background, a handful of years ago, we sold almost exclusively to institutions. Today, we sell to institutions, insurance and private wealth. Taking those in turn, while some institutions are pulling back or delaying a bit, others like sovereign wealth funds are not, and we are having a number of productive dialogues globally, in particular around private credit and real assets. Our insurance efforts are also scaling meaningfully. You heard the $142 billion number from Global Atlantic. If you include the $56 billion we have from third-party insurers, we now manage nearly $200 billion for insurance companies globally. That number is up nearly 50% from 2 years ago.

    作為背景,幾年前,我們幾乎只向機構出售產品。今天,我們向機構、保險和私人財富出售產品。反過來,雖然一些機構正在撤回或推遲一點,但主權財富基金等其他機構卻沒有,我們正在全球範圍內進行一些富有成效的對話,特別是圍繞私人信貸和實物資產。我們的保險工作也在顯著擴大。你從 Global Atlantic 聽到了 1420 億美元的數字。如果包括我們從第三方保險公司獲得的 560 億美元,我們現在為全球保險公司管理著近 2000 億美元。這個數字比 2 年前增加了近 50%。

  • Also, as Rob referenced, we are now live with our democratized PE and infrastructure strategies. Our democratized real estate product has been raising capital since mid-2021 and is adding more platforms. And we have another private credit vehicle for the wealth channel in the pipeline for later this year. So we will have all 4 of our major asset classes in democratized format available globally and being added to multiple new platforms over the course of the next several quarters. Candidly, we don't yet know what all this will yield. But we do know it will be upside for us relative to what we've been doing to date. And we know that the private wealth opportunity is significant for the firm.

    此外,正如 Rob 所提到的,我們現在採用民主化的 PE 和基礎設施戰略。我們的民主化房地產產品自 2021 年年中以來一直在籌集資金,並正在增加更多平台。今年晚些時候,我們還有另一個用於財富渠道的私人信貸工具。因此,我們將在全球範圍內以民主化格式提供所有 4 種主要資產類別,並在接下來的幾個季度內將其添加到多個新平台。坦率地說,我們還不知道這一切會產生什麼。但我們確實知道,相對於我們迄今為止所做的事情,這對我們來說是有利的。我們知道私人財富機會對公司來說意義重大。

  • So we are diversifying KKR, not just in how we invest, but in how we access capital. And we see all this lining up really well for us over the next couple of years as we expect to be back in the market with our flagship funds at a more hospitable time, which will coincide with us continuing to scale our insurance efforts, which are proving countercyclical and benefiting from a higher rate environment, at which point, we will also be more mature in private wealth with our products on multiple platforms in multiple geographies, all while our recently expanded sales force, up from 100 to 280 people in the last couple of years, is hitting their stride.

    因此,我們正在使 KKR 多元化,不僅在於我們的投資方式,還在於我們獲取資本的方式。在接下來的幾年裡,我們看到所有這一切對我們來說都非常好,因為我們希望在一個更友好的時間帶著我們的旗艦基金重返市場,這將與我們繼續擴大我們的保險工作相吻合,這是證明逆週期並受益於更高的利率環境,屆時,我們的產品在多個地區的多個平台上也將在私人財富方面更加成熟,同時我們最近擴大了銷售隊伍,從去年的 100 人增加到 280 人幾年,正在大踏步前進。

  • So despite the near-term fundraising environment, we feel good about the progress we're making and now have multiple ways to win with more momentum coming. So that all bodes well.

    因此,儘管近期籌款環境不佳,但我們對正在取得的進展感到滿意,現在有多種方法可以贏得更多動力。所以一切都是好兆頭。

  • On the monetization front, we will likely sell less in an environment like this, but we are seeing the value of the portfolio continue to grow so this is really just a timing question. And on the investing front, the great news is times like these tend to generate some of our best investments. We expect the next couple of years to be strong vintage years for returns across asset classes. So we expect our earnings down the road to be higher as we monetize the investments we're making in this environment. Putting this all together, while the near term may feel harder to interpret and the next couple of quarters may stay bumpy in markets, we actually feel great about how we are building the firm and executing our plan.

    在貨幣化方面,我們可能會在這樣的環境中減少銷售,但我們看到投資組合的價值繼續增長,所以這實際上只是一個時間問題。在投資方面,好消息是這樣的時代往往會產生一些我們最好的投資。我們預計未來幾年將是各資產類別回報強勁的年份。因此,隨著我們將在這種環境下進行的投資貨幣化,我們預計未來的收益會更高。綜上所述,雖然近期可能感覺更難解釋,而且接下來的幾個季度市場可能仍將動盪不安,但我們實際上對我們如何建立公司和執行我們的計劃感覺良好。

  • Now switching to the longer term. Last quarter, I referenced the market volatility and suggest that it's important to separate the signal from the noise and that we remain focused on what we can control. That continues to be the case. The market noise has not changed our bottom line. We feel even more convicted in hitting the FRE and after-tax DE targets we shared with you. Let me explain why. In January, we shared how the earnings power of the firm has evolved. We are in a fundamentally different place than we were even a few years ago. Because we reported DE largely on a cash basis, there will be times we are over-earning that earnings power and times we are under-earning. In times like this, when we are selling less, we are under-earning.

    現在轉向更長期。上個季度,我提到了市場波動,並建議將信號與噪音區分開來很重要,我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情。情況仍然如此。市場噪音並未改變我們的底線。我們對達到我們與您分享的 FRE 和稅後 DE 目標感到更有信心。讓我解釋一下為什麼。一月份,我們分享了公司的盈利能力是如何演變的。我們所處的位置與幾年前根本不同。因為我們主要以現金為基礎報告 DE,所以有時我們的盈利能力會超額盈利,有時我們的盈利能力不足。在這樣的時期,當我們銷售量減少時,我們的收入就不足了。

  • But we look at how that earnings power is trending and our progress has been significant. Our ability to create forward-looking financial outcomes is well ahead of where we were just a few years ago. The capital we're raising is increasing the amount of dry powder we have, already a near record $106 billion. And we have a lot of management fee growth visibility with $37 billion of committed capital where fees turn on when the capital is invested. Our carry-bearing invested capital, up 3x over the last 5 or so years, is continuing to scale with a great investing environment in front of us as we deploy our dry powder. And our embedded gains continue to increase, from $2 billion to $9 billion over the last 3 years.

    但我們著眼於這種盈利能力的趨勢,我們的進步是顯著的。我們創造前瞻性財務成果的能力遠遠領先於幾年前。我們籌集的資金增加了我們擁有的干火藥數量,已經接近創紀錄的 1060 億美元。我們有很多管理費增長的可見性,有 370 億美元的承諾資本,在投資資本時收取費用。我們的承載投資資本在過去 5 年左右的時間裡增長了 3 倍,隨著我們部署乾粉,我們面前的投資環境不斷擴大。我們的內含收益繼續增加,在過去 3 年中從 20 億美元增加到 90 億美元。

  • Putting all this together and stepping back, our run rate earnings power has doubled over the last 3 years at KKR. That's a metric we think matters, especially when the noise is loud.

    將所有這些放在一起並退後一步,我們在 KKR 的運行率盈利能力在過去 3 年中翻了一番。這是我們認為很重要的指標,尤其是當噪音很大時。

  • So thank you for taking the time to understand our business. And hopefully, it's clear why we are so optimistic about the path and growth ahead. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

    感謝您花時間了解我們的業務。希望我們很清楚為什麼我們對未來的道路和增長如此樂觀。有了這個,我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

  • Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

    Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

  • Maybe we could start with some of the dynamics you're seeing in private credit. And specifically, I was hoping we can zone in on direct lending. So, Scott, you suggested that's an area where you continue to see opportunities and the environment remains, obviously, quite interesting there. Can you help maybe unpack like sort of the sizing of that business for you guys outside of the BDC? And ultimately, how much of third-party capital outside of GA you have in there and the opportunity to really scale that where you could bring in third-party assets into the franchise?

    也許我們可以從您在私人信貸中看到的一些動態開始。具體來說,我希望我們可以專注於直接貸款。所以,斯科特,你建議這是一個你繼續看到機會的領域,而且那裡的環境顯然仍然很有趣。你能幫 BDC 以外的人分析一下業務規模嗎?最終,你有多少 GA 之外的第三方資本,以及真正擴大規模的機會,你可以將第三方資產引入特許經營權?

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Sounds good. Thanks for the question, Alex. Craig, why don't you kick off and then I'll jump on?

    聽起來不錯。謝謝你的問題,亞歷克斯。克雷格,為什麼你不先開始,然後我再繼續?

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Yes, sure. So look, I think in terms of the industry, just to start there, Alex, and some of the dynamics we're seeing, I think mid-market private equity firms which really are a lot of the driver of the deployment you see here do have a lot of dry powder. And so you're seeing more of these firms, more mid-market borrowers generally who want to use the private debt markets. So we expect the private debt markets broadly in direct lending specifically to continue to grow and take share.

    是的,當然。所以看,我認為就行業而言,從那裡開始,亞歷克斯,以及我們看到的一些動態,我認為中型市場私募股權公司確實是您在這裡看到的部署的很多驅動力確實有很多乾粉。所以你會看到更多這樣的公司,通常是更多想要使用私人債務市場的中端市場借款人。因此,我們預計私人債務市場在廣泛的直接貸款方面將繼續增長並佔據份額。

  • And I think in terms of KKR, you should expect to see us grow here in a number of ways. First, in a traditional institutional format. So we're fundraising for our U.S. and European direct lending strategy. Second, we have our BDC, as you mentioned. And we think there'll be opportunities over time to introduce additional vehicles focused on the private wealth opportunity. And finally, Global Atlantic is also active here. So I think in summary, direct lending, it's a core part of our credit business, lots of ways for us to grow. We think that can be in the institutional private wealth, insurance businesses across multiple forms of capital, traditional funds, separately managed accounts, perpetual capital, and that's both in the U.S. and outside the U.S. So again, the backdrop for us just feels really constructive with lots of opportunities going ahead.

    我認為就 KKR 而言,你應該期待看到我們在這里以多種方式成長。首先,以傳統的製度形式。因此,我們正在為我們的美國和歐洲直接貸款戰略籌款。其次,正如您提到的,我們有 BDC。我們認為隨著時間的推移會有機會引入更多專注於私人財富機會的工具。最後,Global Atlantic 在這裡也很活躍。所以我認為總而言之,直接貸款是我們信貸業務的核心部分,我們有很多增長方式。我們認為,這可能存在於機構私人財富、跨多種資本形式的保險業務、傳統基金、獨立管理賬戶、永久資本中,這在美國和美國以外都存在。所以,對我們來說,背景真的很有建設性未來有很多機會。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Yes. Just a couple of thoughts I'd add, Alex. First off, if you think about our overall private credit, like corporate credit business, it's roughly $75 billion-or-so of assets. If you include real estate credit, which is a very large business for us, that adds another roughly $30 billion to $35 billion. So we're $110, give or take, billion of total between the 2. And that is, to your question, really fed across a number of different vehicles. We've got Global Atlantic, we've got our BDC and other permanent vehicles. We have funds, we have separate accounts and we're raising capital across all of those.

    是的。亞歷克斯,我只想補充幾點。首先,如果你考慮一下我們的整體私人信貸,比如公司信貸業務,大約有 750 億美元左右的資產。如果你包括房地產信貸,這對我們來說是一項非常大的業務,那將再增加大約 300 億至 350 億美元。所以我們是 110 美元,或多或少,兩者之間的總額為 10 億美元。也就是說,對於你的問題,確實有許多不同的車輛。我們有 Global Atlantic,我們有 BDC 和其他永久性車輛。我們有資金,我們有獨立的賬戶,我們正在通過所有這些籌集資金。

  • And we continue to see, to Craig's point, a real opportunity to continue to scale those businesses, especially in this environment where the traditional banks are pulling back. But I would highlight a few things. Direct lending gets a lot of attention. The senior secured opportunity is definitely there. Spreads are wider, protections are greater. We think this is going to be a great vintage period, and we're finding real interest from investors around the world in that seniority plus yield off a higher base rate. So we think that interest will continue.

    在克雷格看來,我們繼續看到繼續擴大這些業務的真正機會,尤其是在傳統銀行撤退的環境中。但我要強調幾點。直接貸款受到很多關注。高級安全機會肯定存在。價差更大,保護更大。我們認為這將是一個偉大的複古時期,我們發現世界各地的投資者對這種資歷以及更高的基準利率產生了真正的興趣。所以我們認為這種興趣會持續下去。

  • The other thing that doesn't get as much attention is our asset-based finance business, which is also a very large opportunity for us, a very large business. That is roughly a $4 trillion to $5 trillion end market in terms of opportunity, on its way to $7 trillion. This is -- think of it as a series of different hard assets and consumer assets that the banks use to finance that they're pulling back from. We have a number of platforms that we've created to go after that space, again accessed across all the different types of vehicles I mentioned.

    另一件沒有受到太多關注的是我們的資產金融業務,這對我們來說也是一個非常大的機會,一個非常大的業務。就機會而言,這大約是一個 4 萬億美元到 5 萬億美元的終端市場,正在走向 7 萬億美元。這是 - 將其視為銀行用來融資的一系列不同的硬資產和消費者資產,他們正在退出。我們創建了多個平台來追逐這個空間,再次訪問我提到的所有不同類型的車輛。

  • And then real estate, real estate credit, you can imagine what that market looks like over the next several years, it's going to be a big opportunity for us to scale there as well, and we're already one of the largest players. So big opportunity for growth as we think about how do we double our $200 billion-plus in credit globally again from here.

    然後是房地產,房地產信貸,你可以想像未來幾年這個市場會是什麼樣子,這對我們來說也是一個擴大規模的好機會,我們已經是最大的參與者之一。當我們考慮如何從這裡再次將我們超過 2000 億美元的全球信貸翻番時,增長機會如此之大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

    下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

  • Patrick Davitt - Senior Analyst of US Asset Managers

    Patrick Davitt - Senior Analyst of US Asset Managers

  • You mentioned holding on to some things longer and pausing realizations, and last week, a competitor gave a pretty big guide down on PE realization expectations for the year, basically saying they didn't expect a big uptick until 2024. So do you agree with this view? And I guess, more specifically looking at your pipeline and conversations, still think there's a path to posting meaningful pickup in the second half?

    你提到堅持一些事情更長時間並暫停實現,上週,一個競爭對手對今年的 PE 實現預期給出了相當大的指導,基本上說他們預計到 2024 年才會大幅上升。所以你同意嗎這個觀點?而且我想,更具體地看你的管道和對話,仍然認為有在下半年發布有意義的皮卡的途徑嗎?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Patrick, thanks for the question. So I think, and I applied this in the prepared remarks, we're seeing a pretty quiet monetization outlook out there right now. That's what we're seeing in our current pipeline. And our expectation is probably going to remain that way for the duration of the year. Now I think there's a few separate points to hit on here for KKR specifically. I think the most important point, and I mentioned this earlier, is that 90-plus percent of our capital at KKR is either perpetual or locked up for 8-plus years from inception.

    帕特里克,謝謝你的提問。所以我認為,並且我在準備好的評論中應用了這一點,我們現在看到了一個非常安靜的貨幣化前景。這就是我們在當前管道中看到的。我們的預期可能會在今年全年保持這種狀態。現在我認為這裡有幾個單獨的要點專門針對 KKR。我認為最重要的一點,我之前提到過,我們在 KKR 的 90% 以上的資本要么是永久性的,要么是自成立以來鎖定了 8 年以上。

  • In terms of our carry-eligible AUM, I bet that number is probably closer to 100%. And so we are generally not forced sellers into the marketplace. Number two, while the near term here could be pretty slow, there are a number of factors that really contribute to our confidence in being able to generate very meaningful step-ups in monetization-related revenue in the future when the environment improves. Number one, it's the health of our existing portfolio. It's really strong. I don't think that we can overstate that point enough. We feel really good that we got the macro right coming into this period of time, and we'll exit it in a stronger position competitively as a result.

    就我們符合條件的資產管理規模而言,我敢打賭這個數字可能接近 100%。因此,我們通常不會強迫賣家進入市場。第二,雖然短期內可能會相當緩慢,但有許多因素確實有助於我們有信心在未來環境改善時能夠在貨幣化相關收入方面產生非常有意義的增長。第一,這是我們現有投資組合的健康狀況。它真的很強大。我認為我們不能過分誇大這一點。我們感覺非常好,我們在這段時間裡獲得了宏觀的權利,因此我們將以更有競爭力的地位退出它。

  • Number two is really the scaling and diversification of our capital deployment over the last 5 years that's going to generate the carry and balance sheet gains in the future. Scott hit on this in his prepared remarks, but our carry-eligible AUM is up 3x versus the last vintage, which is generating today's carry. And number three, it's our dry powder, $106 billion, almost a record number for us, and 95-plus percent of that $106 billion is carry-eligible. And so really the question here around the trade-offs between monetizing investments today versus in the future was one of the key reasons why we included that earnings power framework that we did in our teaching materials from January. It's that metric, I think, that really speaks to the go-forward opportunity for us and why we remain so constructive on the longer-term ability to generate real monetization outcomes and ultimately $7-plus per share of TDE by 2026.

    第二是我們過去 5 年資本部署的規模化和多樣化,這將在未來產生收益和資產負債表收益。斯科特在他準備好的發言中提到了這一點,但我們符合套利條件的 AUM 比上一個年份增長了 3 倍,後者產生了今天的套利。第三,這是我們的干火藥,1060 億美元,對我們來說幾乎是一個創紀錄的數字,而且這 1060 億美元中有 95% 以上是可以攜帶的。因此,真正圍繞今天與未來的貨幣化投資之間的權衡取捨的問題是我們從一月份開始就在教材中加入盈利能力框架的關鍵原因之一。我認為,正是這個指標真正說明了我們的前進機會,以及為什麼我們對產生實際貨幣化成果的長期能力保持如此積極的態度,並最終在 2026 年實現每股 TDE 超過 7 美元。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Yes. The only thing I'd add, Patrick, a couple of things. One, this is obviously going to be heavily market-dependent. I think Rob hit on it. We've gone from $2 billion to $9 billion of unrealized gains in the last 3 years. So that's the number that we track. That's why we shared that with this. So this is just a matter of when do we choose that we want to monetize some of those gains on the margin, especially in U.S. and Europe. We're probably going to choose to wait. But keep in mind, one of the things we benefit from is a more global portfolio than most. Asia, in particular, has some different market dynamics going on right now. I think that will help on the margin.

    是的。帕特里克,我唯一要補充的是幾件事。第一,這顯然將嚴重依賴市場。我認為 Rob 抓住了它。在過去 3 年中,我們的未實現收益從 20 億美元增加到 90 億美元。這就是我們跟踪的數字。這就是我們與此分享的原因。因此,這只是我們選擇何時將其中一些收益貨幣化的問題,尤其是在美國和歐洲。我們可能會選擇等待。但請記住,我們受益的其中一件事是比大多數人更全球化的投資組合。尤其是亞洲,目前正在發生一些不同的市場動態。我認為這會有所幫助。

  • But the bigger picture message you should take is the $4-plus of FRE that we shared and the $7-plus of TDE per share a few years out, we still feel great about that. So I wouldn't get too worried about what we say in the next couple of quarters. I'd focus more on that earnings power and where do we expect to end up. My personal perspective is I would expect those numbers will go up relative to down based on what we're going through now.

    但你應該接受的更大的信息是我們分享的 4 美元以上的 FRE 和幾年後每股 7 美元以上的 TDE,我們對此仍然感覺很好。所以我不會太擔心我們在接下來的幾個季度會說什麼。我會更多地關注盈利能力以及我們預計最終會在哪裡。我個人的觀點是,根據我們現在所經歷的情況,我預計這些數字會相對上升而不是下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

    下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Brian McKenna。

  • Brian J. Mckenna - VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Brian J. Mckenna - VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • So I had a question on your infrastructure business. Fund IV has about $10 billion of uncalled commitments. So how should we think about the quarterly pace of deployment here for the remainder of the year? And then do you have any initial expectations around the size and timing of Fund V?

    所以我有一個關於你的基礎設施業務的問題。基金 IV 有大約 100 億美元的未催繳承諾。那麼我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的季度部署速度呢?那麼您對 Fund V 的規模和時機有什麼初步預期嗎?

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Brian, it's Craig. Why don't I start? First, on deployment, one of the things that is interesting and you've picked up on this is the real scaling you've seen over time in deployment. So in 2019, infra deployment was $2.1 billion. In 2020, it was $2.2 billion. And over the trailing 12 months, we've invested $14 billion across the infrastructure platform. Activity is very high. This remains among the busiest teams and the framework of our firm and it's global. And returns, again, as you would have seen the snapshot from Page 7, have continued to be, we think, strong and differentiated.

    布賴恩,是克雷格。我為什麼不開始?首先,在部署方面,一件有趣的事情是您在部署中隨時間推移看到的真正擴展。因此在 2019 年,基礎設施部署為 21 億美元。 2020 年為 22 億美元。在過去的 12 個月裡,我們在基礎設施平台上投資了 140 億美元。活躍度很高。這仍然是我們公司最繁忙的團隊和框架之一,而且它是全球性的。我們認為,正如您從第 7 頁的快照中看到的那樣,回報仍然強勁且與眾不同。

  • So I think the activity level continues to be high. We haven't announced anything as it relates to timing of future fundraising, et cetera. But I think if we continue to execute the way that we have, there'll be continued opportunities for us. And then one other point here is, again, innovation is not -- is going to continue in the framework of the firm. And I think you're seeing that real time in terms of what we talked about in the prepared remarks on democratized infrastructure as an avenue that also will continue to help us both from a deployment and honestly from a fundraising standpoint as well.

    所以我認為活動水平仍然很高。我們還沒有宣布任何與未來籌款時間等相關的事情。但我認為,如果我們繼續按照現有方式執行,我們就會有持續的機會。然後這裡的另一點是,創新不是——將在公司的框架內繼續。而且我認為,就我們在準備好的關於民主化基礎設施的評論中所討論的內容而言,你正在實時看到這一點,這也是一種途徑,它也將繼續從部署和誠實地從籌款的角度幫助我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Mike Brown with KBW.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

  • Michael C. Brown - MD

    Michael C. Brown - MD

  • So in the quarter, concerns related to the fixed annuity surrenders really picked up in March as the liquidity stress really led the market. In GA, what did you guys see in terms of the fixed annuity surrenders in the quarter and what have you seen thus far in the second quarter? And then if you just take the other side, what are you guys seeing on the organic growth side? How has that performance been in the first quarter, specifically towards the tail end and then into the second quarter?

    因此,在本季度,由於流動性壓力確實引領市場,與固定年金退保相關的擔憂在 3 月份真正升溫。在 GA 中,你們在本季度的固定年金退保方面看到了什麼?到目前為止,你們在第二季度看到了什麼?然後,如果你只是站在另一邊,你們在有機增長方面看到了什麼?第一季度的表現如何,特別是在尾聲和第二季度?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Yes, Mike, it's Rob. Thanks a lot for the question. Punchline is no surprises as it relates to surrenders. They remain in line with management's expectation on initial underwriting. So we feel good about that. That has continued into the second quarter as well into April. As it relates to the opportunity from here, clearly, the opportunity, we think, on the retail side of the business, given where interest rates are and where annuity is price -- annuities are priced today remains a really robust one that our team is very focused on. We have a very strong market share there.

    是的,邁克,是羅布。非常感謝你的提問。妙語並不令人意外,因為它與投降有關。它們仍然符合管理層對初始承保的預期。所以我們對此感覺很好。這種情況一直持續到第二季度和四月份。由於它與這裡的機會有關,很明顯,我們認為,在業務的零售方面,考慮到利率和年金的價格,今天的年金定價仍然是一個非常強勁的機會,我們的團隊是非常專注。我們在那裡擁有非常強大的市場份額。

  • And I mentioned this earlier through the prepared remarks, but the institutional side of our business has a real healthy pipeline right now. And so be a little bit lumpier in nature, but we feel good with what we're seeing there and some of the risk reward that exists in that part of the market as well.

    我之前通過準備好的評論提到了這一點,但我們業務的機構方面現在有一個真正健康的渠道。所以本質上有點笨拙,但我們對我們在那裡看到的東西以及該部分市場中存在的一些風險回報感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

  • Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

    Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

  • Maybe just on capital deployment. How are you thinking about the pace? And I guess in the context of monetization slowing down, clearly, the market is slower and you don't want to be monetizing in this environment. And heard you loud and clear, you're eager, of course, to deploy in this environment with valuations being good. But to what extent will any kind of slowdown in the market will prevent you from doing that? And how important can your own internal capital markets business be in sort of narrowing that gap versus, say, using other means of deploying capital? And then if I could just weave in, just the $37 billion of committed capital that comes into fee-paying AUM, just your expectations of timing on that.

    也許只是在資本配置上。你怎麼考慮節奏?而且我想在貨幣化放緩的背景下,很明顯,市場變慢了,你不想在這種環境下貨幣化。並且清楚地聽到您的聲音,您當然渴望在估值良好的環境中進行部署。但市場放緩會在多大程度上阻止你這樣做?您自己的內部資本市場業務在縮小差距方面與使用其他資本配置方式相比有多重要?然後,如果我可以編織,只有 370 億美元的承諾資本進入付費 AUM,這就是你對時間的期望。

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Brian, it's Craig. Why don't I start and then Rob can pick up on the $37 billion number? So just a couple of observations, I guess, in terms of deployment. Look, first, over the last 18 months, we've seen a lot of dislocation and valuations have come down pretty meaningfully. And a lot of the primary markets have either been shut, thinking of the IPO market or the syndicated debt markets, again, as an example, which aren't fully healed. So capital at the moment is precious, but all of those things from a deployment standpoint, we look at, I think, are very good things for us.

    布賴恩,是克雷格。為什麼我不開始,然後 Rob 就可以得到 370 億美元的數字呢?我想,就部署而言,只是一些觀察。看,首先,在過去的 18 個月裡,我們看到了很多錯位,估值大幅下降。許多主要市場要么已經關閉,例如 IPO 市場或銀團債務市場,再次作為一個例子,它們還沒有完全治愈。所以目前的資金是寶貴的,但從部署的角度來看,我認為所有這些對我們來說都是非常好的事情。

  • And as Rob pointed out in our prepared remarks, with our fundraising success heading into this period, we're really well positioned when you put those 2 things together. Now I think in this backdrop, look, we're going to be value focused. We're going to look for those opportunities where our operational resources and focus can really move the needle. We love corporate carve-outs. We've been active in pursuing public to private, so I think that's an example of where you're seeing probably as much activity from us as anybody within the industry. And so we're going to continue to be opportunistic across that -- across those parts of the opportunity set.

    正如 Rob 在我們準備好的發言中指出的那樣,隨著我們的籌款成功進入這一時期,當你把這兩件事放在一起時,我們真的處於有利地位。現在我認為在這種背景下,看,我們將以價值為中心。我們將尋找那些我們的運營資源和重點可以真正發揮作用的機會。我們喜歡公司分拆。我們一直在積極追求從公共到私人的轉變,所以我認為這是一個例子,你可以看到我們的活動可能與行業內的任何人一樣多。因此,我們將繼續在這方面保持機會主義——在機會集的那些部分。

  • And I think finally, the other thing you're seeing because it's interesting is the balance you're seeing across the firm. Real diversification, real balance. Over the trailing 12 months, traditional private equity deployment was $11 billion. Real estate was $10 billion and infrastructure, again, as I mentioned a moment ago, was $14 billion. So you're seeing a real balance in that level of investment activity. And I think it's also just worth highlighting and it's kind of related to the first, but the growth you've seen also in terms of real asset deployment with the growth in our infrastructure and real estate platforms, you've seen a big step-up in overall deployment, and that is also true within the credit business.

    最後我想,你看到的另一件事是你在整個公司看到的平衡,因為它很有趣。真正的多樣化,真正的平衡。在過去的 12 個月裡,傳統的私募股權部署為 110 億美元。正如我剛才提到的,房地產是 100 億美元,而基礎設施是 140 億美元。所以你看到了投資活動水平的真正平衡。而且我認為這也值得強調,它與第一個有點相關,但是隨著我們的基礎設施和房地產平台的增長,您在實際資產部署方面也看到了增長,您已經看到了一大步-整體部署上調,信貸業務亦是如此。

  • So in 2019, deployment in credit was $10 billion, 2020 was $10.3 billion, trailing 12 months, it was $17 billion. And then I think as it relates to capital markets, you're bringing up a very fair point just as it relates to the strength of the team and what having 70 people can do for us as we're trying to put capital structures together and look to finance those deployment opportunities. And to date, despite all of the disruption, we've not had a situation where we haven't been able to finance an opportunity that we wanted to pursue. And I think the strength of the team and the breadth that we have in terms of the global capital markets franchise has a critical part in that.

    因此,2019 年信貸部署為 100 億美元,2020 年為 103 億美元,過去 12 個月為 170 億美元。然後我認為這與資本市場有關,你提出了一個非常公平的觀點,因為它與團隊的實力有關,以及在我們試圖整合資本結構時擁有 70 人可以為我們做些什麼,尋求為這些部署機會提供資金。迄今為止,儘管發生了所有中斷,但我們還沒有遇到無法為我們想要追求的機會提供資金的情況。我認為團隊的實力和我們在全球資本市場特許經營方面的廣度在其中起著關鍵作用。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Yes, Brian, it's Scott. Just a couple of things I'd add. One, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, I think it's going to be a great couple of vintage years we're walking into here. So if you first start with equity, which is probably the focus of your question, there's a couple of things that go on. Buyers and sellers need to find common ground. It usually takes about 12 months for that to happen as the market suggest. We seem to be countering that. We're starting to work to the other side of that. Obviously, the bank failure has created a little bit of a pause in some discussions, but we are pretty active on a number of different fronts. So we think that will not be something that holds us up for much longer.

    是的,布賴恩,是斯科特。我要補充幾件事。第一,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的,我認為這將是我們走進這裡的美好年份。因此,如果您首先從公平開始,這可能是您問題的重點,那麼會發生一些事情。買賣雙方需要找到共同點。正如市場建議的那樣,通常需要大約 12 個月的時間才能實現。我們似乎在反駁這一點。我們開始著手解決它的另一面。顯然,銀行倒閉在一些討論中造成了一點停頓,但我們在許多不同方面都非常活躍。所以我們認為這不會讓我們堅持更長時間。

  • I think the financing markets, to Craig's good point, capital markets and to your question, has been a secret weapon for us and has allowed us to get some deals done. We've done a couple of deals where we've spoken for 100% equity and then the private credit market shows up and put the financing in place. So we're not letting the financing markets hold us back in TE or in infrastructure. In fact, it's kind of creating some opportunities where maybe it's tougher for our competition that don't have the same capability sets and the same capital markets team. And then as I mentioned before, on the credit side, it's just more flow and more opportunity across both corporate and real estate credit for us.

    我認為融資市場,就克雷格的觀點而言,資本市場和你的問題,一直是我們的秘密武器,使我們能夠完成一些交易。我們已經完成了幾筆交易,其中我們談到了 100% 的股權,然後私人信貸市場出現並將融資落實到位。因此,我們不會讓融資市場阻礙我們在 TE 或基礎設施方面的發展。事實上,它在某種程度上創造了一些機會,在這些機會中,對於我們沒有相同能力集和相同資本市場團隊的競爭對手來說,這可能會更加艱難。然後正如我之前提到的,在信貸方面,對我們來說,公司和房地產信貸的流量和機會更多。

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • And Brian, just a quick follow-up on the $37 billion of capital, no firm guidance there, but our -- a decent rule of thumb would be 3 to 4 years until that shows up in fee-paying AUM. As a reminder, that capital comes in at close to 100 basis points on a weighted average fee basis.

    而布賴恩,只是對 370 億美元資本的快速跟進,那裡沒有明確的指導,但我們的經驗法則是 3 到 4 年,直到它出現在付費 AUM 中。提醒一下,該資本以加權平均費用計算接近 100 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

  • Michael J. Cyprys - Executive Director and Senior Research Analyst

    Michael J. Cyprys - Executive Director and Senior Research Analyst

  • As you guys have continued to grow out your insurance relationships, can you talk about how you have expanded your investment capabilities there, where you see room to further scale some of those capabilities maybe in real estate credit? And maybe you could talk about some of the initiatives there. And then what white space opportunities remain at this point where you could broaden out the investment capability set there?

    隨著你們繼續發展你們的保險關係,你們能談談你們是如何擴大你們在那裡的投資能力的嗎,你們認為在房地產信貸方面有進一步擴展其中一些能力的空間嗎?也許你可以談談那裡的一些舉措。那麼此時還有哪些空白機會可以擴大那裡的投資能力?

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Michael, it's Scott. Really good question. I would say there's no doubt that broadening our insurance relationships, both with Global Atlantic and with third parties, has allowed us to meaningfully scale some parts of the firm. In particular, I would say, all things private credit, direct lending, asset-based finance that I mentioned before, maybe part of the firm that had the biggest impact was across real estate credit. I think the year before, we did the Global Atlantic transaction, a real estate credit team originated something like $2 billion of loans, and the first year after, it was somewhere in like $12 billion or $13 billion.

    邁克爾,是斯科特。真是個好問題。我想說,毫無疑問,擴大我們與 Global Atlantic 和第三方的保險關係,使我們能夠有意義地擴大公司的某些部分。特別是,我要說的是,我之前提到的所有私人信貸、直接貸款、基於資產的融資,可能對公司影響最大的部分是房地產信貸。我想前一年,我們進行了 Global Atlantic 交易,一個房地產信貸團隊發起了大約 20 億美元的貸款,而第一年之後,大約是 120 億美元或 130 億美元。

  • So it's allowed us to meaningfully scale our presence, both from an origination standpoint and also allow us, I think, to do an even better job for the third-party insurers because now we are operating just like them through the regulatory environment that they're living with as an operator as opposed to just an agent. And I think there's opportunities to grow in all of those spaces. These are very large end markets. As you know, our strategy and everything we do is only be in businesses where we are or can get to top 3 in that space, and we feel great across all of those fronts.

    因此,它讓我們能夠有意義地擴大我們的存在,無論是從發起的角度來看,還是讓我們,我認為,為第三方保險公司做得更好,因為現在我們在他們的監管環境中像他們一樣運作作為操作員與您同住,而不僅僅是代理人。我認為所有這些領域都有發展的機會。這些是非常大的終端市場。如您所知,我們的戰略和我們所做的一切都只是在我們已經或可以進入該領域前三名的業務中,我們在所有這些方面都感覺很棒。

  • It also gives us an opportunity to look more globally as we're looking at, in particular, for Global Atlantic blocks across Asia or Europe and adding insurance clients outside the U.S., I'd say our client base is heavier in the U.S. today, but we are building relationships outside the U.S. as well. And that gives us an opportunity to expand, just like we did in the U.S., our origination footprint across all those areas, we can do it outside the U.S., too. And we're starting to do that now across both Europe and Asia across those asset classes.

    這也讓我們有機會放眼全球,尤其是在亞洲或歐洲的全球大西洋區塊,並在美國以外增加保險客戶,我想說我們今天的客戶群在美國更大,但我們也在美國以外建立關係。這給了我們一個機會,就像我們在美國所做的那樣,擴大我們在所有這些領域的起源足跡,我們也可以在美國以外的地方進行。我們現在開始在歐洲和亞洲的這些資產類別中這樣做。

  • So it's been a big positive for us on a number of different fronts, and it kind of bolted us to top 3 across a number of those different businesses much faster. In terms of kind of white space, to the second part of your question, more broadly, I think there are a number of different things that we could point to. The biggest impact on the firm, however, is just going to be scaling everything that we started. We see an opportunity to double and triple several of the businesses that we're in. As you know, a lot of the businesses we've started in the last -- started in the last handful of years. Over 50% of the firm is not yet scaled in our definition. Over 50% of the money we raised last year is in strategies less than 5 years old. So the biggest impact is going to be scaling what we started. But there are some other areas. I'd point to energy transition and climate is something that we could point to. I'd point to life sciences as another big area that over time could be meaningful for us in terms of coming attractions.

    因此,這對我們在許多不同方面都是一個很大的積極影響,並且它使我們在許多不同業務中更快地躋身前三。就空白類型而言,對於問題的第二部分,更廣泛地說,我認為我們可以指出許多不同的事情。然而,對公司的最大影響就是擴大我們開始的一切。我們看到了將我們所從事的幾項業務增加一倍和三倍的機會。如您所知,我們最近開始的許多業務都是在過去幾年中開始的。在我們的定義中,超過 50% 的公司尚未擴大規模。我們去年籌集的資金中,超過 50% 的資金都用於不到 5 年的策略。因此,最大的影響將是擴大我們的起點。但還有一些其他領域。我想指出能源轉型和氣候是我們可以指出的。我會指出生命科學是另一個大領域,隨著時間的推移,它可能對我們未來的吸引力有意義。

  • Michael J. Cyprys - Executive Director and Senior Research Analyst

    Michael J. Cyprys - Executive Director and Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And if I could just sneak in a housekeeping question for Rob, just on the investment deployment off the balance sheet.

    偉大的。如果我可以偷偷向 Rob 提出一個內務管理問題,那就是資產負債表外的投資部署。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • We would have been disappointed if you didn't ask that one, Michael. You're very consistent.

    如果你不問那個人,我們會很失望,邁克爾。你非常一致。

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Mike, we were at $500 million of deployment in the quarter and realization is about $150 million.

    邁克,我們在本季度部署了 5 億美元,實現了大約 1.5 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Arnaud Giblat with BNP Paribas.

    我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Arnaud Giblat。

  • Arnaud Maurice Andre Giblat - MD & Research Analyst

    Arnaud Maurice Andre Giblat - MD & Research Analyst

  • I'd like to follow up on the deployment in credit. It's been detected by yourself and most of your peers as a significant opportunity to take market share from the banks. Yet when we look at Q1 data here, the promise in credit is quite soft. I was just wondering if you -- what sort of dynamics to work out for us to see really deploy and pick up here?

    我想跟進信貸的部署。您和您的大多數同行都發現這是從銀行手中奪取市場份額的重要機會。然而,當我們在這裡查看第一季度數據時,信貸前景相當疲軟。我只是想知道你是否 - 什麼樣的動力可以讓我們看到真正部署和接收?

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Yes, it's Craig. Why don't I start? Look, I think it's -- the first quarter, as I think we'll all remember, March, in particular, was a really disruptive period. We've had 2 bank failures since the beginning of March. Just a tremendous amount of volatility. And all of that -- those dynamics are not going to be helpful from a financing market standpoint, from a deal standpoint, as Scott had mentioned a moment or 2 ago. So I wouldn't read too much into the industry, honestly, in terms of these trailing 90 days.

    是的,是克雷格。我為什麼不開始?看,我認為這是 - 第一季度,我想我們都會記得,尤其是 3 月,這是一個真正具有破壞性的時期。自 3 月初以來,我們已經有 2 家銀行倒閉了。只是巨大的波動。所有這一切——從融資市場的角度來看,從交易的角度來看,這些動態不會有幫助,正如斯科特一兩分鐘前提到的那樣。因此,老實說,就這些過去的 90 天而言,我不會過多地了解這個行業。

  • A lot of that activity in private credit does end up being financial sponsor-driven in the framework of new transactions. And we think over time, as you have refinancing opportunities as the market strengthens and as you have that M&A activity from mid-market sponsors pick up, that you'll see deployment in turn, pick up. As I think the overall share is one where you're continuing to see a growth in share in private credit broadly. So again, I wouldn't look to read too much into the trailing 90 days.

    私人信貸中的許多活動最終確實在新交易的框架內由金融贊助商驅動。我們認為,隨著時間的推移,隨著市場走強,你有再融資的機會,隨著中端市場發起人的併購活動增加,你會看到部署反過來增加。正如我認為的那樣,總體份額是您繼續看到私人信貸份額廣泛增長的份額。再次重申,我不希望對過去的 90 天進行過多解讀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Benjamin Budish with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Benjamin Budish。

  • Benjamin Elliot Budish - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Elliot Budish - Research Analyst

  • I kind of revisit, Scott, some of your comments about fundraising. Just thinking about sort of the more excess caution across the LP base. Could you maybe characterize that a little bit? Is it sort of denominator effect issues? Or is it sort of a broad skittishness that's sort of just delaying all decision-making? And then kind of in the context of the 30 funds you've got coming to market, how much of that is expected to start raising in the back half of the year? Just maybe help us think through the sort of risk that some of that gets pushed further into 2024.

    斯科特,我有點重溫你對籌款的一些評論。只是想一想 LP 基礎上的過度謹慎。你能稍微描述一下嗎?這是分母效應問題嗎?或者這是一種廣泛的膽怯,只是推遲了所有的決策制定?然後在你已經上市的 30 只基金的背景下,預計其中有多少將在今年下半年開始籌集?也許可以幫助我們思考其中一些被進一步推到 2024 年的風險。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Look, in terms of the LP dynamics, it really depends on what product area you're talking about, what kind of investor you're talking about. So I'd say where there has been perhaps a bit more caution on the margin has been around U.S. and European pensions. And some of that is definitely a denominator effect as they're trying to get their bearings heading into this year. And some of them are over their alternatives allocation and trying to sort out how much of the budget do they want to spend and how quickly.

    看,就 LP 動態而言,這實際上取決於你在談論什麼產品領域,你在談論什麼樣的投資者。所以我想說,在美國和歐洲的養老金方面,可能更謹慎一些。其中一些絕對是分母效應,因為他們正試圖讓他們的軸承進入今年。他們中的一些人已經結束了他們的備選方案分配,並試圖弄清楚他們想要花費多少預算以及花費多快。

  • But that is just that particular segment, and it tends to be more equity-focused as opposed to credit and real estate credit-focused in terms of those dynamics. But when you kind of go broader than that, you got the sovereign wealth funds, we're not feeling that dynamic at all. Whether it's Asia or the Middle East, they seem to have a good amount of capital and are looking to put it to work across different asset classes and geographies. Insurance companies, despite the higher base rate, we continue to see a significant amount of interest in what we're doing. And you heard the comments that we're now a couple of hundred billion near enough that we're managing for insurance companies. It's been quite good for their businesses in terms of -- especially on the life and annuity side. And so we're getting the benefit of that growth.

    但這只是那個特定的部分,就這些動態而言,它往往更注重股票,而不是信貸和房地產信貸。但當你的範圍更廣時,你就擁有了主權財富基金,我們根本就感覺不到那種活力。無論是亞洲還是中東,他們似乎都擁有大量資本,並希望將其用於不同的資產類別和地區。保險公司,儘管基準利率較高,但我們繼續看到對我們正在做的事情有很大興趣。你聽到的評論說,我們現在已經有 2000 億美元,足以讓我們為保險公司管理。這對他們的業務來說非常好——尤其是在人壽和年金方面。因此,我們正在從這種增長中受益。

  • The family offices are actually a bit contrarian in this environment and reviewing this, which we agree with, is a great period to put money to work. So we're actually finding family offices leading in. And you can -- you know what we said about private wealth, that's all new. So this is the first time some of these spaces have had access to things like private equity and infrastructure. And so we'll see what all that yields but this is a new dynamic for us. So I wouldn't over-index to just the U.S. and European pensions.

    在這種環境下,家族辦公室實際上有點逆勢而行,回顧這一點,我們同意,是投入資金的好時機。所以我們實際上正在尋找領先的家族辦公室。你可以——你知道我們對私人財富的看法,這是全新的。所以這是其中一些空間第一次接觸到私募股權和基礎設施等東西。所以我們會看到所有的結果,但這對我們來說是一個新的動力。所以我不會過度索引美國和歐洲的養老金。

  • And I would say the footnote even on that score, I think some of them have learned from the post-GFC period, where maybe some invested less coming out of the financial crisis than they might have hoped. And so as opposed to turning off, we're finding maybe they're reducing the amount they're committing in this environment but not turning it off. The bigger point I would make is that if you think more broadly across everything that we're doing across private equity, infrastructure, real estate and credit, there is a significant amount of investor dialogue, both institutions and individuals. So I wouldn't take too much caution from the comments.

    即使在這一點上,我也會說腳註,我認為他們中的一些人已經從後全球金融危機時期吸取了教訓,其中一些人在金融危機後的投資可能比他們希望的要少。因此,與關閉相反,我們發現他們可能正在減少他們在這種環境中承諾的數量,但並沒有關閉它。我要說的更重要的一點是,如果你更廣泛地考慮我們在私募股權、基礎設施、房地產和信貸方面所做的一切,就會發現大量的投資者對話,包括機構和個人。所以我不會對這些評論過於謹慎。

  • Just on the margin, we are hearing this from some people. And I think the bank crisis in March probably fed that a bit, but there's also acknowledgment from a number of the people that we're talking to, but they don't want to underinvest or undercommit because I think there's an understanding the next couple of years are going to be a really good investment period. And as your question on the 30 investment strategies, I think most of those will be in the market over the course of the next 12 months, including the back half of this year.

    就在邊緣,我們從一些人那裡聽到了這一點。我認為 3 月份的銀行危機可能助長了這一點,但我們正在與之交談的一些人也承認了這一點,但他們不想投資不足或承諾不足,因為我認為接下來的幾對會有所了解年將是一個非常好的投資時期。至於你關於 30 種投資策略的問題,我認為其中大部分將在未來 12 個月內出現在市場上,包括今年下半年。

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • And the only thing I'd add to that last point, Ben, just again, I think the part of the market where we've seen the most headlines and where you're probably seeing the most congestion is in traditional private equity. Again, as we mentioned, we've had a final close on our Europe VI fund, 20% larger than its predecessor, great outcome. Probably worth noting that almost 25% of the LPs in that fund are new investors. They're now new clients of KKR.

    最後一點我要補充的唯一一點是,本,我認為我們看到最多頭條新聞和你可能看到最擁堵的市場部分是傳統的私募股權。同樣,正如我們所提到的,我們的 Europe VI 基金已經完成了最終收盤,比其前身大 20%,這是一個很好的結果。可能值得注意的是,該基金中近 25% 的有限合夥人是新投資者。他們現在是 KKR 的新客戶。

  • So we've talked for a long time on these calls of our focus on growing the LP base and the success that we're having there. But more importantly, following on that, again, as we've mentioned, we are now -- we're not going to be in the market with a flagship PE fund this year, and we don't expect to be back in the market till '24 or '25. And we feel fortunate with that timing. And instead, it allows us to focus on deploying that capital. So I think perhaps the traditional PE space might be the one place where you might hear people delaying or having the greatest impact on seeing those fundraises be elongated. And we're really fortunate in that we have no activity for the back half of this year.

    因此,我們已經討論了很長時間關於我們專注於發展 LP 基礎和我們在那裡取得的成功的呼籲。但更重要的是,在此之後,正如我們已經提到的,我們現在——我們今年不會在市場上推出旗艦 PE 基金,而且我們預計不會回到市場直到'24或'25。我們對那個時機感到幸運。相反,它使我們能夠專注於部署該資本。因此,我認為傳統的 PE 空間可能是您可能會聽到人們推遲或對看到這些籌款被延長產生最大影響的地方。我們真的很幸運,因為今年下半年我們沒有任何活動。

  • Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

    Scott C. Nuttall - Co-CEO & Director

  • Maybe just one other macro comment I'd make, Ben, is if you think about this. If you step back and think about our firm, so 15 years ago, we managed about $50 billion of capital; 10 years ago at less than $100 billion; 5 years ago, less than $200 billion. We're now in excess of $500 billion. And what we tend to find coming out of periods of time like this, we've got a bit of a market dislocation and the question around economic cycles is investors tend to look back and say what performed when the markets were difficult. And what we found is, over time, alternatives has tended to perform quite well. And usually, what happens coming out of environment like this is they increase their allocation to alts.

    本,也許我要發表的另一條宏觀評論是,如果你考慮一下這個問題。如果你退一步想想我們公司,那麼 15 年前,我們管理著大約 500 億美元的資本; 10 年前還不到 1000 億美元; 5 年前,還不到 2000 億美元。我們現在已經超過 5000 億美元。我們往往會發現,在這樣的時期之後,市場出現了一些混亂,圍繞經濟周期的問題是,投資者往往會回顧過去,說出市場困難時的表現。我們發現,隨著時間的推移,替代方案往往表現良好。通常,像這樣的環境會發生什麼,他們會增加對 alts 的分配。

  • Our expectation is that the same thing will happen here. That will be a nice wind at our back as we kind of head into the next several years and launch the flagship funds that Craig was referencing. And then you've got on top of that, the compounding benefit of private wealth. So the reason you hear the optimism in our voices is over the next several years, we actually think we're going to look back on this period of time, I feel like this has been quite helpful and helps fuel the next leg of growth for the industry and for the firm.

    我們的期望是同樣的事情會在這裡發生。當我們進入未來幾年並推出克雷格提到的旗艦基金時,這將是我們背後的一股好風。然後你就得到了最重要的,私人財富的複合收益。所以你聽到我們聲音中的樂觀情緒的原因是在接下來的幾年裡,我們實際上認為我們將回顧這段時間,我覺得這非常有幫助,有助於推動下一階段的增長行業和公司。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Bill Katz with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Katz。

  • Michael Clark Kelly - VP

    Michael Clark Kelly - VP

  • This is Michael Kelly on for Bill. You've seen a nice uptrend in the non-GA-related credit fee rate over the last 4 quarters with a nice step-up in 1Q. Was there anything to call out in the fee rate this quarter? And then how should we think about the trend in that moving forward from here?

    這是比爾的邁克爾·凱利。您已經看到過去 4 個季度非 GA 相關的信貸費率呈現出良好的上升趨勢,並且在第一季度出現了不錯的上升。本季度的費率有什麼要指出的嗎?那麼我們應該如何考慮從這裡向前發展的趨勢呢?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Nothing specifically to call out. It's a little bit of a mix issue that we're benefiting from. You'd see that uptick, but nothing specifically other than a little bit of mix of product.

    沒有什麼特別要說的。這是我們從中受益的一個混合問題。你會看到這種上升,但除了一點點產品組合之外沒有什麼特別的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Finian O'Shea。

  • Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

    Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just sort of a follow-up to the last question on the higher fee rate. Is there an ability to rotate sort of the back book into more direct origination now that longer-term yields have come back down? And if so, how would you size that runway or opportunity for, say, optimizing the GA book?

    只是關於更高費率的最後一個問題的跟進。既然長期收益率已經回落,是否有能力將一些後備賬簿轉為更直接的發起?如果是這樣,您將如何調整跑道或優化 GA 書籍的機會?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • And yes, just to clarify for -- just to separate those 2, that question was related to Global Atlantic. When we first purchased Global Atlantic, we spent a lot of time working with the team to make sure that we were very thoughtful around how we rotated the book from GA-sourced assets to KKR-sourced assets. We weren't in a rush. We continue not to be in a rush and that's happened methodically over time. And as a result, you've seen our blended fee rate step up in a pretty balanced way over the last couple of years.

    是的,只是為了澄清——只是為了將這兩個問題分開,這個問題與全球大西洋有關。當我們第一次購買 Global Atlantic 時,我們花了很多時間與團隊合作,以確保我們對如何將這本書從 GA 來源的資產輪換為 KKR 來源的資產進行了深思熟慮。我們並不著急。我們繼續不著急,隨著時間的推移,這是有條不紊地發生的。因此,您已經看到我們的混合費率在過去幾年中以相當平衡的方式上升。

  • Today, our blended fee rate at GA when you cut through all the math is roughly 30 basis points. I think there's some opportunity over time to continue to rotate the book. We'll continue to do that in the most thoughtful way. We can in conjunction with the GA investment team. But I wouldn't expect any market changes from the trajectory that we've had over the last couple of years.

    今天,當你通過所有數學運算時,我們在 GA 的混合費率大約是 30 個基點。我認為隨著時間的推移會有一些機會繼續輪換這本書。我們將繼續以最周到的方式做到這一點。我們可以與 GA 投資團隊合作。但我不認為我們在過去幾年的軌跡會發生任何市場變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

  • Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

    Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

  • Maybe just like zooming out for a second. I was hoping to get your latest perspective on capital management in light of kind of where we are in the cycle. Yourself and, obviously, many of your peers are going through a bit of an earnings lull, but you outlined multiple times now that the firm continues to be really well positioned. You guys have a significant amount of embedded earnings power as you've outlined. So why not lean into the share count shrinkage a little bit more here to take advantage of significantly higher earnings power down the road?

    也許就像縮小一秒鐘。我希望根據我們在周期中所處的位置,了解您對資本管理的最新看法。你自己,顯然,你的許多同行都在經歷一段盈利平靜期,但你多次概述了公司仍然處於非常有利的地位。正如您所概述的那樣,你們擁有大量的嵌入式盈利能力。那麼,為什麼不在這裡更多地關注股票數量的縮減,以利用未來顯著提高的盈利能力呢?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Alex. It's a good question, the right question. I'll start with just a broader framework around capital allocation. You probably heard me say this a couple of times before. The most important thing that we can do as a management team is to have a consistent approach. Our approach is very much ROE-based. And ultimately, when we're allocating capital, the question that we are always looking to answer is what is going to drive the best risk-adjusted outcome on a per share basis. There's no more important question than that.

    是的。謝謝,亞歷克斯。這是一個好問題,正確的問題。我將從一個更廣泛的資本配置框架開始。你之前可能聽我說過幾次。作為一個管理團隊,我們能做的最重要的事情就是採用一致的方法。我們的方法非常基於 ROE。最終,當我們分配資本時,我們一直希望回答的問題是什麼將推動每股收益的最佳風險調整結果。沒有比這更重要的問題了。

  • And we think, as a management team, moving our marginal dollar of liquidity around to the highest ROE opportunity is a real core competency. Now specifically on the question of share buyback, if you take a look at our body of work, we've had our buyback authorization now in place for several years. We've repurchased or retired 85-plus million shares. That's almost 10% of our shares outstanding. It's well north of 10% of our public float. The average price of which we've bought back or retired those shares by $25 a share. So we really like our body of work.

    而且我們認為,作為一個管理團隊,將我們的邊際流動性美元轉移到最高 ROE 機會是一個真正的核心競爭力。現在特別是關於股票回購的問題,如果你看一下我們的工作,我們已經有好幾年的回購授權了。我們已經回購或退市 85 多萬股。這幾乎是我們已發行股票的 10%。它遠遠超過我們公眾持股量的 10%。我們以每股 25 美元的價格回購或淘汰這些股票的平均價格。所以我們真的很喜歡我們的工作。

  • And on top of that, at the same time, if you look back over the past couple of years, whether that's -- excuse me, whether that's KKRM or Global Atlantic, we've completed almost $5 billion of purchase price-related M&A, and we haven't had to issue that many shares to be able to do that -- do those transactions but mostly cash funded. And so when you take a step back, we don't look at share buyback in sort of one discrete bucket. We look at capital allocation as a whole.

    除此之外,與此同時,如果你回顧過去幾年,無論是——對不起,無論是 KKRM 還是 Global Atlantic,我們已經完成了近 50 億美元的與收購價格相關的併購,而且我們不必發行那麼多股票就可以做到這一點——進行這些交易,但主要是現金資助。因此,當你退後一步時,我們不會以一種離散的方式看待股票回購。我們從整體上看資本配置。

  • Now all to say, we do expect share buybacks to be a big part of our toolkit on a go-forward basis, and we're going to evaluate them the same way we evaluate all capital allocation. But yes, as we think over the next number of quarters and years, you're going to continue to see us lean into our share count when it makes sense, from a liquidity standpoint, when it makes sense from an opportunity relative to other opportunity sets out there and then obviously where our share price is at. So thanks for the question. Hopefully, that's helpful color in how we, as a management team, value using our marginal dollars of liquidity.

    現在總而言之,我們確實希望股票回購在未來的基礎上成為我們工具包的重要組成部分,我們將以與評估所有資本配置相同的方式對其進行評估。但是,是的,正如我們在接下來的幾個季度和幾年中所考慮的那樣,你將繼續看到我們在有意義的時候,從流動性的角度來看,當從一個機會相對於其他機會有意義的時候,我們會傾向於我們的股票數量在那裡開始,然後很明顯我們的股價在哪裡。所以謝謝你的問題。希望這對我們作為管理團隊如何使用我們的邊際流動性美元進行估值有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question is from the line of Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo.

    我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的 Finian O'Shea。

  • Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

    Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Can you touch on the outlook for capital market transaction fees? I think those looked a little strong in the context of the softer environment. Was a lot of this perhaps a one-off? Or has the development of your platform there started to show through and maybe we can expect stable to improving levels throughout the year?

    您能否談談資本市場交易費用的前景?我認為在較軟環境的背景下,這些看起來有點強大。其中很多可能是一次性的嗎?或者你們平台的發展已經開始顯現,也許我們可以期待全年穩定到提高水平?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Yes. We're really proud of how durable our Capital Markets business has been in what has been a really tough capital markets environment. Obviously, equity markets largely shut. Leveraged finance markets have been largely shut for some period of time. And if you look at our average quarterly revenue over the past 4 quarters, it's been a little bit north of $100 million per quarter. And so I think it's important to think about that in context of our Capital Markets franchise. 7-plus years ago is probably a $200 million a year business in good markets. 5-plus years ago is probably a $400 million year in good markets type business. And today, our LTM revenue is a little bit north of that $400 million number in a really tough environment.

    是的。我們為我們的資本市場業務在非常艱難的資本市場環境中的持久性感到自豪。顯然,股市基本休市。一段時間以來,槓桿金融市場基本關閉。如果你看看我們過去 4 個季度的平均季度收入,就會發現每季度略高於 1 億美元。因此,我認為在我們的資本市場特許經營權的背景下考慮這一點很重要。 7 多年前,在良好的市場中,每年可能有 2 億美元的業務。 5 多年前,良好市場類型的業務可能是 4 億美元的一年。而今天,在非常艱難的環境中,我們的 LTM 收入略高於 4 億美元的數字。

  • And so no guidance as it relates to forward-looking quarters, but we do look at the performance that the team has been able to generate in a really tough market and feel really great about how we're positioned. And do know that when we do come out of this period of time, when markets open back up, we, as a management team, have every expectation that we're going to be talking about a Capital Markets business 3, 5 years from now that's well in excess of the size that it is today for a number of reasons, just how we're positioned competitively, our access to talent. We see a lot of talent potentially coming out of, traditional source of capital markets institutions where we could take advantage of that. And then as KKR expands what we do, that's a real opportunity for our Capital Markets business.

    因此,沒有與前瞻性季度相關的指導,但我們確實看到了團隊在一個非常艱難的市場中能夠產生的表現,並且對我們的定位感到非常滿意。並且確實知道,當我們真正走出這段時間,當市場重新開放時,作為管理團隊,我們完全期望我們將在 3、5 年後談論資本市場業務由於多種原因,這遠遠超過了今天的規模,例如我們的競爭定位,以及我們獲得人才的途徑。我們看到很多人才可能來自傳統的資本市場機構來源,我們可以利用這些機構。然後隨著 KKR 擴大我們的業務範圍,這對我們的資本市場業務來說是一個真正的機會。

  • Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

    Finian Patrick O'Shea - VP and Senior Equity Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And one final, if I may. Any color or line of sight on second quarter monetizations?

    這很有幫助。如果可以的話,還有一場決賽。第二季度貨幣化有任何顏色或視線嗎?

  • Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

    Robert H. Lewin - Partner & CFO

  • Great. Thanks for that question. It's plus or minus around $125 million of forward look that we have, again, in context of the $9-plus billion of embedded gains on our balance sheet.

    偉大的。謝謝你的問題。在我們資產負債表上超過 9 億美元的嵌入式收益的背景下,我們再次擁有大約 1.25 億美元的前瞻性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'll hand the floor back to Craig Larson for closing remarks.

    此時,我們的問答環節已經結束,我將把發言權交還給 Craig Larson 作結束語。

  • Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

    Craig Larson - Partner and Head of IR

  • Rob, thank you for your help, and thank you, everyone, for your interest in KKR. We look forward to speaking again post our Q2 results. And if you have any questions in the interim, please, of course, follow up with us directly. Thank you once again.

    Rob,謝謝你的幫助,也謝謝大家對 KKR 的關注。我們期待在發布第二季度業績後再次發言。當然,如果您在此期間有任何問題,請直接與我們聯繫。再一次感謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。