艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Mr. Dassen, can you give us a summary of the third quarter results?

達森先生，您能否向我們總結第三季的業績？

Absolutely. Net sales came in at EUR 5.8 billion, which was above guidance included in that EUR 5.8 billion number, EUR 1.5 billion of installed base revenue.

絕對地。淨銷售額達 58 億歐元，高於預期的 58 億歐元數字，其中安裝基礎收入為 15 億歐元。

Why was it higher than guided? A number of reasons. First off, the installation time in the field is -- actually, it's faster than we anticipated, and that means that we get revenue faster as a result of that. So that was one big reason.

為什麼它高於指導值？有很多原因。首先，現場安裝時間實際上比我們預期的要快，這意味著我們可以更快地獲得收入。所以這是一個重要原因。

Secondly, we already mentioned the installed base business. So that was more than we anticipated because of some field upgrades.

其次，我們已經提到了安裝基礎業務。由於一些現場升級，這超出了我們的預期。

And thirdly, we put -- also in the past quarters, we put options at factory -- a specific factory option on the machines. And that factory option led to delayed revenue because, first, the factory option needed to demonstrate its value to the customers. A number of key customers have now accepted that value, and as a result of that, the deferred revenue that we booked in previous quarters has now been released. So it's in that combination really that the revenue was higher than we guided.

第三，在過去的幾個季度中，我們還在工廠中設定了選項——機器上的特定工廠選項。而工廠選擇導致收入延遲，因為首先，工廠選擇需要向客戶證明其價值。許多主要客戶現在已經接受了該價值，因此，我們在前幾個季度確認的遞延收入現已釋放。因此，正是在這種組合下，收入才高於我們預期的。

Also from a gross margin perspective, higher than we anticipated, 51.8%, primarily driven by, I would say, the last 2 things that I've just mentioned. So the deferred revenue release of the factory option and also the fact that we were into -- able to pull in some installed base business. Also, the factory option was a pull-in, right, because that meant that the value was actually demonstrated earlier than we originally anticipated.

另外從毛利率的角度來看，高於我們的預期，為 51.8%，這主要是由我剛才提到的最後兩件事所推動的。因此，工廠選擇權的遞延收入釋放以及我們所處的事實—能夠吸引一些已安裝的基礎業務。此外，工廠選項是一種吸引力，對吧，因為這意味著其價值實際上比我們最初預期的更早體現。

So those are the main reasons why both the revenue and gross margin are higher than guided last quarter.

這些就是為什麼上季營收和毛利率都高於預期的主要原因。

The net income for the quarter came in at EUR 1.7 billion. And also very noteworthy, I think, is the net BOs -- net bookings came in at a record EUR 8.9 billion for this quarter. Included in there, EUR 3.8 billion for EUV, including a number of High-NA orders.

本季淨收入為17億歐元。我認為同樣值得注意的是淨預訂量——本季淨預訂量達到創紀錄的 89 億歐元。其中包括38億歐元的EUV訂單，其中包括大量高NA訂單。

So all in all, I would say, a strong quarter both in terms of revenue, in terms of gross margin and also in terms of order intake.

總而言之，我想說，無論從收入、毛利率或訂單量來看，這都是一個強勁的季度。

What's your guidance for the fourth quarter and for the full year?

您對第四季和全年的預期是什麼？

For the fourth quarter, our guidance for sales is between EUR 6.1 billion and EUR 6.6 billion. Included in there, we expect EUR 1.6 billion for installed base revenue. In terms of gross margin, we expect approximately 49%. If you then translate that into the full year 2022, we would get around -- at the midpoint, we would get around EUR 21.1 billion revenue for the full year at a gross margin approaching 50%.

對於第四季度，我們預計銷售額將在 61 億歐元至 66 億歐元之間。其中，我們預計安裝基礎收入為 16 億歐元。就毛利率而言，我們預計約為49%。如果將其轉換為 2022 年全年，我們將獲得大約 - 在中點，我們的全年收入將達到約 211 億歐元，毛利率接近 50%。

Can you give us an update on the current supply chain situation and your confidence in resolving these issues?

您能否向我們介紹一下目前供應鏈的情況以及您對解決這些問題的信心？

Yes, I think it's good in that context, just to look at the facts. And I think one factor is just to look at if you adjust the quarter revenue for the fast ship effect, I think that gives you -- if you normalize that, then I think you get a good proxy for what the -- how the output capacity for ASML and its supply chain really has developed itself. And if you take that perspective, so you normalize the revenue for the fast ship effect, and you would see that for Q1, we were at EUR 4.9 billion in normalized revenue. In Q2, we were at EUR 5.7 billion. In Q3, the quarter we just completed, at EUR 6 billion. And at the midpoint that we're now guiding for Q4, we would be around EUR 6.4 billion. So there you see a gradual uptick of the normalized revenue, again, as a good proxy of the output capability that ASML and its supply chain demonstrate.

是的，我認為在這種情況下這樣做是件好事，只要看看事實就行。我認為一個因素是看看你是否根據快速發貨效應調整季度收入，我認為這會給你 - 如果你將其標準化，那麼我認為你會得到一個很好的代理 - ASML 的產出能力及其供應鏈實際上是如何發展的。如果你從這個角度來看，那麼你將快速出貨效應的收入標準化，你會看到，對於第一季度，我們的標準化收入為 49 億歐元。第二季度，我們的營收為 57 億歐元。我們剛結束的第三季的銷售額為 60 億歐元。以我們目前預測的第四季中位數計算，我們的營收約為 64 億歐元。因此，您會看到標準化收入再次逐漸上升，這很好地體現了 ASML 及其供應鏈的產出能力。

And I think that's a good indication and a good evidence, I think, of the fact that we are getting a better handle on the supply chain situation. And the better handle means that we actually see the move rates in the supply chain go up and we also see the predictability of those move rates going up. So we put a lot of effort into this, working very closely with the supply chain and particularly with those suppliers that were struggling a little bit. But I think all in all, I think the situation is definitely progressing. I think the capacity that we now see, both for ourselves and also the supply chain, I think, position us very nicely for what we've communicated before as the output target and the shipment targets that we would have for next year, which is more than 60 EUV tools and more than 375 DUV.

我認為這是一個很好的跡象和證據，表明我們正在更好地控制供應鏈狀況。更好的處理意味著我們實際上看到供應鏈中的移動率上升，我們也看到這些移動率的可預測性上升。因此，我們為此付出了很多努力，與供應鏈密切合作，特別是與那些遇到一些困難的供應商合作。但我認為總體而言，情況肯定在取得進展。我認為我們現在看到的產能，無論是我們自己還是供應鏈，都非常適合我們之前傳達的產量目標和明年的出貨量目標，即超過 60 個 EUV 工具和超過 375 個 DUV。

There's a lot of uncertainty around the supply of natural gas. Do you see any impact of that on your business?

天然氣供應存在著許多不確定性。您認為這對您的業務有什麼影響嗎？

So we definitely looked into that. We looked into that for our own operations. We're a very mild consumer of natural gas. So for us, we've established that the risk profile is very low. We also looked at our Tier 1 suppliers -- our key Tier 1 suppliers. And also there, we have determined that either it's -- the risk is low or they are very well prepared to deal with the situation and have developed alternatives. We looked beyond that point, and we really looked into a number of subsuppliers and if there are subsuppliers that are confronted with a high-risk situation around this. In those instances, we're working very hard with them to look at -- to work on the alternatives and just make sure that everyone is very well prepared. So clearly something we're looking into, but I think we're making really good progress on making sure that the entire supply chain is well prepared for that -- for any eventualities in that regard.

所以我們確實調查了這一點。我們針對自己的營運情況對此進行了調查。我們是天然氣的溫和消費者。因此對我們來說，我們已經確定風險狀況非常低。我們也考察了我們的一級供應商—我們的關鍵一級供應商。而且，我們已經確定，要么風險很低，要么他們已經做好了充分的準備來應對這種情況，並製定了替代方案。我們超越了這一點，並真正調查了許多分包商，看看是否有分包商面臨這方面的高風險情況。在這些情況下，我們會與他們一起努力尋找替代方案，確保每個人都做好充分的準備。顯然我們正在研究一些事情，但我認為我們在確保整個供應鏈為此做好充分準備方面取得了非常好的進展——以應對任何可能發生的事件。

Are you seeing any change in demand from your customers with slowing consumer demand potential recession ahead? What does it mean for demand for your products in 2023?

隨著消費需求放緩，未來可能出現經濟衰退，您是否發現客戶的需求改變了？這對 2023 年您的產品需求意味著什麼？

Yes, it's a very valid point. I mean it's very clear that the world is changing very rapidly, and this combination of inflation on the one hand and also consumer confidence taking ahead, it's -- these are serious developments and create a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty that is really at a very different level -- I would say, at the macro uncertainty, I think, is at a very different level than it was even a couple of months or quarters ago. So that's clearly the case.

是的，這是一個非常正確的觀點。我的意思是，很明顯世界正在迅速變化，一方面是通貨膨脹，另一方面是消費者信心的上升，這些都是嚴重的事態發展，造成了很多不確定性，這種不確定性實際上處於一個非常不同的水平——我想說，就宏觀不確定性而言，我認為，與幾個月或幾個季度前相比，這種不確定性已經處於非常不同的水平。顯然情況確實如此。

And of course, in such a climate of uncertainty of consumers, inflation risks, recession risks clearly there, I think that obviously also has an impact on our customers. And you see some customers actually running our tools at a utilization level which is below the record levels that we've seen before. We also see a number of our customers reducing the CapEx that they are forecasting. And we also see now for the first time since quite a while that actually some customers are actually delaying the preferred time that they would like to get our tools. So we see those dynamics.

當然，在這種消費者不確定的環境下，通膨風險、衰退風險顯而易見，我認為這顯然也會對我們的客戶產生影響。而且您會發現一些客戶實際上運行我們工具的利用率低於我們之前見過的記錄水平。我們還發現許多客戶正在減少他們預測的資本支出。而且我們現在還第一次看到，實際上有些客戶實際上正在推遲他們希望獲得我們工具的時間。所以我們看到了這些動態。

But I have to say the lion's share of our customers really keeps on pushing us in terms of getting the tools and getting them sooner rather than later. So there's a few customers that are indicating a preference for some delay, but the lion's share of the customers are really pushing, and they're raising their hand to say if there is a delay someplace else, then please get the tools to us even earlier.

但我不得不說，我們的大多數客戶確實一直在敦促我們盡快獲得工具。因此，有少數客戶表示願意延遲，但大部分客戶確實在推動，他們舉手錶示，如果其他地方出現延誤，那麼請儘早將工具交給我們。

And I think that's also evidenced by the strength of the order book. Again, we just mentioned record order intake of EUR 8.9 billion. That gets to an order book at the end of Q3 of over EUR 38 billion, which is a number that we've never seen before at ASML. And in there, 85% of that order book really is for EUV and for immersion, so really caters to the more advanced and strategic part of semiconductor manufacturing.

我認為訂單量也證明了這一點。再次，我們剛才提到了創紀錄的 89 億歐元訂單量。截至第三季末，ASML 的訂單總額已超過 380 億歐元，這是 ASML 從未見過的數字。其中 85% 的訂單實際上是用於 EUV 和浸沒式光刻，因此真正滿足了半導體製造中更先進和更具戰略性的部分。

And I think that's really also what's going on. I think, clearly, the secular trends, as we always call them, are very much intact. I mean customers really want to make those technology transitions. They really are building capacity also beyond 2023. And also, there is still this element of tech sovereignty that we've been talking about, right, the fact that governments want to be more self-sufficient in their semiconductor manufacturing. So those secular trends are still very much intact. And I think that creates a situation that we're seeing, where the lion's share of the customers are really still pushing us to get the tools sooner rather than later.

我認為這確實也是正在發生的事情。我認為，顯然，我們通常所說的長期趨勢仍然完好無損。我的意思是客戶確實希望實現這些技術轉變。他們確實也在建造 2023 年以後的產能。此外，我們一直在談論的技術主權因素仍然存在，對吧，事實上，各國政府希望在半導體製造方面更加自給自足。因此這些長期趨勢仍然完好無損。我認為這造成了我們看到的情況，即大部分客戶仍然在敦促我們儘早獲得工具。

So your question on '23, obviously, it's a bit early to be too granular and too specific. But we mentioned before the over 60 EUV tools, the more than 375 DUV tools. And I would say if indeed we're able to sustain the good momentum that we just talked about in the supply chain and provided we're not going to be confronted with some very unexpected developments on the demand side, I think that's still a good indication for what we're looking at in terms of shipment. So clearly, uncertainty at a very different level than what we've seen before. But I think we still have some very strong dynamics going in favor of us.

因此，您關於‘23’的問題，顯然現在提出太過詳細和具體的要求還為時過早。但我們之前提到超過 60 種 EUV 工具和超過 375 種 DUV 工具。我想說，如果我們確實能夠保持我們剛才談到的供應鏈中的良好勢頭，並且我們不會面臨需求方面的一些非常意外的發展，我認為這對於我們在出貨方面所關注的情況仍然是一個很好的跡象。顯然，不確定性的程度與我們以前所見的截然不同。但我認為我們仍然擁有一些非常強大的動力來支持我們。

And how do you prepare for these uncertainties?

您如何為這些不確定性做好準備？

Well, the key word there, I think, is flexibility, right? And that's also something that we're working on as ASML, so to make sure that both on the supply chain as it relates to our own manufacturing capability and also in our workforce that we have sufficient flexibility available, both flexibility that in terms of an unanticipated sudden decline in demand that we're able to collectively respond to that in the right fashion but also making sure that we're also -- when things start to pick up again, that we're able to respond to that in a very flexible way as well.

嗯，我認為這裡的關鍵字是靈活性，對嗎？這也是 ASML 正在努力的方向，以確保與我們自身製造能力相關的供應鏈以及我們的員工隊伍都具有足夠的靈活性，既要確保在需求意外突然下降的情況下我們能夠以正確的方式共同應對，也要確保當情況再次好轉時，我們也能夠以非常靈活的方式應對。

So that's what we're doing. I think it's part and parcel of the capacity expansion that we're doing to do that and to execute that in a flexible way. Anything in that way, we do whatever it takes to be well prepared for any eventualities in that regard.

這就是我們正在做的事情。我認為這是我們正在進行的產能擴張的一部分，並以靈活的方式執行。無論發生什麼事，我們都會盡一切努力為可能發生的任何情況做好充分的準備。

Have you seen any further increases in inflationary effects? And how do you recover from the inflationary costs with regard to your gross margin next year?

您是否看到通膨效應進一步加劇？那麼，您明年的毛利率將如何從通貨膨脹成本中恢復？

So I mean we talked about it last time. Obviously, the inflationary effects are there, both on labor cost, on freight, on parts. So that's clearly going on. We also mentioned we're having good discussions with our customers on that front to kind of share the burden within the ecosystem. And I think generally, there is a good depreciation of customers that they understand what we're being confronted with. And there's also a good appreciation that there needs to be a mechanism to indeed share that burden. So I would expect to get a benefit from that in the course of -- in 2023 and to start seeing that compensation.

我的意思是我們上次討論過這個。顯然，通貨膨脹的影響是存在的，包括對勞動成本、運費和零件的影響。所以這顯然正在發生。我們也提到，我們正在與客戶就此進行良好的討論，以分擔生態系統內的負擔。我認為整體而言，客戶能夠理解我們所面臨的問題。人們也非常清楚，需要有一種機制來分擔這個負擔。因此，我期望在 2023 年從中獲益並開始看到補償。

In terms of the impact that it will have on 2023, so we should get some positive impact on the gross margin from that element. Also for '23, I would expect to recover, if you like, from the gross margin impact from the fast shipments. Of course, the gross margin of this year was impacted by the fact that we had these fast shipments. That impact should be significantly less in 2023 from a gross margin perspective. So those, I would say, would be benefits.

就其對 2023 年的影響而言，我們應該能從該因素中獲得對毛利率的一些正面影響。此外，對於 23 年，如果您願意的話，我預計快速發貨對毛利率的影響將會恢復。當然，今年的毛利率受到了快速出貨量的影響。從毛利率的角度來看，2023 年的影響應該會小得多。所以我想說，這些都是好處。

I mean the flip side of that is, clearly, inflation might continue. So there is still quite some uncertainty around the level of inflation. So it's also very hard to predict what exactly the inflation rate for next year is going to be. And also, we should bear in mind, we continue to ramp. We continue to build capacity. And obviously, that means that you're having costs ahead of really utilizing that capacity, and that will continue to have a burden on the gross margin for next year.

我的意思是，顯然，通貨膨脹可能會持續下去。因此通膨水準仍存在相當大的不確定性。因此，也很難預測明年的通膨率到底是多少。而且，我們應該記住，我們會繼續努力。我們將繼續進行能力建構。顯然，這意味著在真正利用產能之前你就會產生成本，這將繼續對明年的毛利率造成負擔。

So if you add it all up, I think all in all, as I mentioned, we have the gross margin approaching 50% in this year. That's what we expect. You also know that we indicated -- for 2025, we articulated an expectation of a gross margin between 54% and 56%. And I think we should also, next year, see the gradual development from the gross margin of this year towards that objective of 54% to 56% that we articulated before. We should see that gradual progress actually happening.

所以如果把所有因素加起來，我認為總的來說，正如我所提到的，我們今年的毛利率接近 50%。這正是我們所期望的。您也知道，我們表示—對於 2025 年，我們預計毛利率將在 54% 至 56% 之間。我認為，明年我們的毛利率應該會從今年的水平逐步朝著我們之前提出的 54% 到 56% 的目標發展。我們應該看到這種逐步的進步正在真正發生。

As said, there is strong demand for your products. Do you think that this strong demand will continue beyond 2023? And can you elaborate on your expansion plans?

正如所說，你們的產品需求量很大。您認為這種強勁的需求會持續到 2023 年以後嗎？能詳細說明一下您的擴張計畫嗎？

Yes. So as I just mentioned, I think the secular trends are there, right? So clearly, there is uncertainty in the short term, but the secular trends are there for all the good reasons that we just mentioned.

是的。正如我剛才提到的，我認為長期趨勢是存在的，對嗎？因此，顯然，短期內存在不確定性，但由於我們剛才提到的所有充分理由，長期趨勢仍然存在。

So from that vantage point, clearly, we believe expanding our capacity is the right thing to do. And we are in very close collaboration with our supply chain to get that done. We recently had a Supplier Day here at ASML to really talk with the suppliers about these expansion plans, about the progress that they're making, also making sure that people learn from one another. So there's a lot of positive dynamic around that theme and a lot of alignment within the supply chain to really get to those levels that we mentioned before, which is 90 EUV systems, 600 DUV systems around the '25 time frame and then, medium term, 20 High-NA systems.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們顯然認為擴大產能是正確的做法。為了實現這一目標，我們與供應鏈保持著密切的合作。我們最近在 ASML 舉辦了供應商日活動，與供應商真正討論這些擴張計劃、他們正在取得的進展，同時也確保人們可以互相學習。因此，圍繞該主題有很多積極的動態，並且供應鏈中有很多協調，以真正達到我們之前提到的水平，即在 25 年時間範圍內有 90 個 EUV 系統、600 個 DUV 系統，然後，在中期內有 20 個高 NA 系統。

What's the impact of the latest export control restrictions announced by the U.S. government? Does this impact your business in China?

美國政府最新公佈的出口管制限制措施有何影響？這會影響您在中國的業務嗎？

So I would say the direct impact on ASML is fairly limited. I should say, of course, we're still in the process of evaluating it. It's a very extensive document, as you know. So we're still in the process of really digesting it and looking at it. But our initial appreciation is that the direct implication for us is fairly limited.

所以我認為對 ASML 的直接影響相當有限。當然，我應該說我們仍處於評估過程中。如您所知，這是一份非常廣泛的文件。所以我們仍處於真正消化和觀察它的過程。但我們最初的認識是，這對我們直接的影響相當有限。

So why is that? Well, first off, as you know, we are a -- we're a European company, right? So there is not a lot of U.S. technology in our tools. So that's the first reason. Of course, we will always adhere to the rule of law, right? So also the U.S. export laws as they pertain to us, of course, we will do whatever it takes to follow those. There's no doubt about it. But the fact that we are a European company with limited U.S. technology in it, of course, it creates this situation where the direct impact on us is fairly limited. We can continue to ship non-EUV lithography tools out of Europe into China.

那為什麼呢？嗯，首先，如您所知，我們是一家歐洲公司，對嗎？因此，我們的工具中並沒有太多美國技術。這是第一個原因。當然，我們會一直堅持法治，對吧？因此，就我們而言，美國出口法也同樣適用，我們當然會盡一切努力遵守這些法律。毫無疑問。但事實上，我們是一家歐洲公司，其中所採用的美國技術有限，這當然造成了對我們的直接影響相當有限的情況。我們可以繼續將非 EUV 光刻工具從歐洲運往中國。

So the direct impact on us, I would say, is fairly limited. Of course, there could be indirect effects. And those indirect effects could be that the Chinese manufacturers, to the extent that they do not get other equipment that they need in their fabs, for instance, from the United States, of course, there could be an indirect effect on the demand for our tools. But there, I would say it's important to recognize that we're clearly still in a situation where the supply is below what the demand is. So to the extent that at a certain point in time, we would be in a position that we can no longer supply certain tools to certain customers in China. The demand outside of China is still such that we would get compensation for that in the current environment from other customers.

因此，我認為對我們的直接影響相當有限。當然，也可能產生間接影響。這些間接影響可能是，如果中國製造商無法從美國等國家獲得其晶圓廠所需的其他設備，那麼這可能會對我們工具的需求產生間接影響。但我想說，重要的是要認識到，我們顯然仍處於供應低於需求的狀況。因此，在某個時間點，我們將無法再向中國某些客戶提供某些工具。中國以外的需求仍然如此，以至於在當前環境下我們可以從其他客戶那裡獲得補償。

To conclude, can you give us an update on your plans for the use of cash?

最後，能否向我們介紹一下您使用現金的計劃？

Yes. So I would say, in principle, nothing changes, right? So as you all know, the primary utilization of cash is, within the business, to make sure that from an R&D perspective, CapEx perspective, the cash that is needed to pursue our road map is there. So that's still the primary purpose.

是的。所以我想說，原則上，什麼都沒改變，對嗎？眾所周知，現金的主要用途是在業務範圍內，確保從研發角度和資本支出角度來看，有足夠的現金來實現我們的路線圖。所以這仍然是主要目的。

Then we've also said we're looking at a dividend that we want to grow over time. And the proposal for next quarter, so for Q4, we will have an interim dividend of EUR 1.37.

然後我們也說過，我們希望股息能隨著時間而成長。根據下個季度的提議，對於第四季度，我們將派發 1.37 歐元的中期股息。

And you also know that what is available above that, so what is available in terms of cash over and above what we need for the business to pursue our road map and what is needed for this growing dividend will be returned to shareholders by means of a share buyback -- by share buybacks. The share buyback program -- the existing share buyback program, we just completed. So quite well ahead of time.

而且您還知道，除了我們為實現路線圖而進行的業務所需的現金和為實現這一增長的股息所需的現金之外，還有什麼可用現金，將通過股票回購的方式返還給股東——通過股票回購。股票回購計劃－現有的股票回購計劃，我們剛完成。所以相當提前了。

We will have -- as you know, we will have our Capital Markets Day on November 11. There, of course, we're going to talk about how we see the 2025 and the 2030 scenarios developing. So how do we see demand developing, the supply situation? So what's our expectation also financially for those years 2025 and 2030. We're also -- in that Capital Markets Day, we'll talk about our plans for a new share buyback program. So there, we will have a concrete program available and ready to discuss and present to the shareholders.

如你所知，我們將於 11 月 11 日舉辦資本市場日。當然，屆時我們將討論我們如何看待 2025 年和 2030 年情境的發展。那我們如何看待需求發展和供應情況？那麼，我們對 2025 年和 2030 年的財務預期是什麼？我們也將在資本市場日討論新的股票回購計畫。因此，我們將有一個具體的計劃，隨時可以討論並提交給股東。

So I'm very much looking forward to that. It's going to be an interesting day, November 11, where -- amidst the uncertainty that we also talked about, to talk about the medium and the longer term and the really good prospects that we continue to see for ASML and its business. So very much looking forward to seeing all of you there, either in person or in video. We'll see you there.

所以我非常期待這一點。 11 月 11 日將是充滿趣味的一天，在我們談到的不確定性中，我們將討論中長期前景以及我們繼續看到的 ASML 及其業務的良好前景。我非常期待在那裡見到你們所有人，無論是親自見面還是透過影片。我們將在那裡見到你。