艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2016 fourth quarter and annual financial results conference call on January 18, 2017. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to open the question-and-answer queue. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2017年1月18日ASML 2016年第四季及年度財務業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML介紹完後，會有提問的機會。現在我想開始問答環節。（操作員指示）現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Aaron, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML's headquarters in Veldhoven, The Netherlands is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2016 fourth quarter and annual results. As always, the length of the call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they're received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com and a replay of the call will be available on our website.

謝謝你，亞倫。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天與我一起在荷蘭費爾德霍芬 ASML 總部出席的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2016年第四季和年度業績。與往常一樣，通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 asml.com 上進行現場直播，並且會議重播也將在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's Annual Report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2016 and 2016 annual results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide you with an overview and some commentary on 2016, the fourth quarter, and beyond. Wolfgang will start with a review of our annual 2016 and fourth quarter financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook. Then I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on key 2016 accomplishments and some of our near-term expectations.

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝大家參加我們 2016 年第四季和 2016 年年度業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想向大家概述一下 2016 年、第四季及以後的情況，並給予一些評論。沃夫岡將首先回顧我們 2016 年年度和第四季的財務業績，並對我們的短期展望發表一些補充評論。然後，我將對 2016 年的主要成就和我們的一些近期期望進行一些補充評論，以完成介紹。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome everyone. 2016 was a remarkable year for ASML both financially and strategically. I would like to first highlight some of our financial accomplishments and then finish with our view of the coming quarter. 2016 was a record breaking year in many financial respects with total net sales, gross profit, net income, and earnings per share all reaching record levels. In addition, we finished the year with the highest backlog ever which combined with our current business view allows us to look forward to another great year in 2017 where EUV becomes an integral and growing part of our system revenues contributing significantly to our topline growth through the balance of this decade and beyond.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。2016 年對 ASML 來說無論是從財務角度或策略角度來說都是意義非凡的一年。我想先強調我們的一些財務成就，然後總結我們對下一季的展望。2016 年在許多財務方面都是創紀錄的一年，總淨銷售額、毛利潤、淨收入和每股盈餘都創下歷史新高。此外，我們以有史以來最高的積壓訂單結束了這一年，結合我們目前的業務觀點，我們可以期待 2017 年再創輝煌，屆時 EUV 將成為我們系統收入中不可或缺且不斷增長的一部分，為我們在未來十年及以後的營收增長做出重大貢獻。

Turning to our Q4 results. Net sales came in at EUR1.91 billion. Net system sales accounted for EUR1.22 billion driven by logic which represented 61% of net system sales with memory returning to strength versus Q3 accounting for 39% of net system sales. System sales included EUR144 million of EUV revenue, in line with the guidance given during our earnings call in October. Net service and field sales for the quarter came in strong as expected at a level of EUR684 million driven by ongoing strong demand for Holistic Lithography options, high value upgrades, and our growing install base. Furthermore, we closed the acquisition of HMI in November and net service and field option sales include about EUR25 million for this new and exciting part of our business. Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 47.2%.

談到我們的第四季業績。淨銷售額達19.1億歐元。淨系統銷售額達 12.2 億歐元，其中邏輯部門佔淨系統銷售額的 61%，而記憶體部門則恢復強勁，第三季佔淨系統銷售額的 39%。系統銷售額包括 1.44 億歐元的 EUV 收入，與我們 10 月收益電話會議上給出的指導一致。本季淨服務和現場銷售額如預期般強勁，達到 6.84 億歐元，這得益於市場對整體光刻選項、高價值升級以及我們不斷增長的安裝基礎的持續強勁需求。此外，我們於 11 月完成了對 HMI 的收購，淨服務和現場選項銷售額包括我們業務這一新興且令人興奮的部分約 2500 萬歐元。本季我們的毛利率為47.2%。

This includes starting the amortization of intangibles as well as the effects from the fair value assessment of HMI's inventory as of the closing date of the acquisition. The negative impact on gross margin for both of these purchase price allocation related items was approximately 1 percentage point. R&D expenses came in at EUR287 million, slightly higher than guided due to both the R&D expenses of HMI and the start of our partial funding of Zeiss SMT for our High NA EUV program. SG&A expenses came in at EUR107 million, also slightly higher than guided due to the inclusion of HMI. We also had an impact from foreign currency revaluations on transactions and balances relating to the HMI acquisition. You may remember that this was an unfavorable effect of about EUR28 million in Q3 as reported during our last call.

這包括開始無形資產的攤銷以及截至收購結束日的 HMI 庫存公允價值評估的影響。這兩項採購價格分配相關項目對毛利率的負面影響約為 1 個百分點。研發費用為 2.87 億歐元，略高於指引值，這既是由於 HMI 的研發費用，也是由於我們開始為蔡司 SMT 的高 NA EUV 計畫提供部分資金。銷售、一般及行政開支為 1.07 億歐元，由於納入 HMI，也略高於指導值。外幣重估也對與 HMI 收購相關的交易和餘額產生了影響。您可能還記得，正如我們上次電話會議所報告的那樣，這對第三季造成了約 2800 萬歐元的不利影響。

For Q4 we had a more than offsetting favorable effect of about EUR83 million. These effects are reported in the interest and other line in our P&L. Moving to the order book. Q4 system bookings came in at EUR1.6 billion for 44 systems including six 3400 EUV systems. Strong bookings continued in the logic sector in support of the 10 nanometer ramps and in support of EUV insertion at the 7 nanometer node. Memory bookings strengthened further from its strong Q3 level supporting expected strength in memory shipments continuing in 2017 driven by DRAM. Continuing order flow for EUV systems brings our total year-end EUV system order book to 18 systems. Our overall systems backlog now stands at nearly EUR4 billion. Turning to the balance sheet. Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments came in at EUR4.06 billion. A major driver was our free cash flow of EUR1.1 billion in Q4.

對於第四季度，我們獲得了約 8300 萬歐元的抵消有利影響。這些影響在我們的損益表中的利息和其他項目中報告。移至訂單簿。第四季系統訂單總額達 16 億歐元，共 44 套系統，其中包括 6 套 3,400 EUV 系統。邏輯領域的訂單持續強勁，以支援 10 奈米製程的升級以及 7 奈米節點 EUV 的引入。記憶體預訂量較第三季的強勁水準進一步增強，支持了 2017 年在 DRAM 的推動下記憶體出貨量持續保持強勁勢頭。EUV 系統的持續訂單流使我們年底的 EUV 系統訂單總數達到 18 個系統。我們的整體系統積壓訂單目前已接近 40 億歐元。轉向資產負債表。本季現金、現金等價物及短期投資季增 40.6 億歐元。主要驅動因素是我們第四季的 11 億歐元自由現金流。

As we experienced in the last quarter of 2015, we saw a significant level of early payments from customers which will impact Q1 2017 cash flows. Also as already mentioned before, we closed the HMI acquisition during the quarter and also issued a EUR750 million bond to support part of our planned strategic investment in Zeiss SMT, which is expected to close in Q2 of 2017. With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the first quarter of 2017. We expect continuing sales strength in Q1 with total net sales of approximately EUR1.8 billion, of which an estimated EUR30 million will be deferred EUV revenue. Foundry shipment strength supporting 10 nanometer RAMs will continue in Q1 and will be firmly supported by memory shipments. We also expect to ship our first NXE:3400 EUV system in the quarter.

正如我們在 2015 年最後一個季度所經歷的那樣，我們看到大量客戶提前付款，這將影響 2017 年第一季的現金流。另外如前所述，我們在本季完成了 HMI 收購，並發行了 7.5 億歐元債券，以支持我們對蔡司 SMT 的部分計畫策略投資，預計將於 2017 年第二季完成。接下來，我想談談我們對 2017 年第一季的期望和指導。我們預計第一季銷售將繼續保持強勁，總淨銷售額約為 18 億歐元，其中預計 3,000 萬歐元將為遞延 EUV 收入。支援 10 奈米 RAM 的代工廠出貨量將在第一季持續保持強勁，並將得到記憶體出貨量的強大支撐。我們也預計將在本季推出我們的第一台 NXE:3400 EUV 系統。

We expect to record the revenue for the system in the third quarter of the year since this system will ship in a non-final configuration. I would also like to mention here that one of the EUV systems that we expected to ship early this year was pulled from Q4 last year due to a customer readiness issue will not ship this year as originally planned. Due to other extenuating circumstances, this customer has now decided to place a system upgrade order for this tool and will take delivery of it in 2018 where it will add to two other systems at the customer side to be shipped this year. This leaves our system output plan at 12 new systems and our shipment plan at 13 considering the one additional system that missed delivery for material availability reasons in Q4 2016.

由於該系統將以非最終配置發貨，我們預計將在今年第三季記錄該系統的收入。我還想在這裡提一下，我們原本預計今年年初發貨的其中一套 EUV 系統由於客戶準備問題於去年第四季度被撤下，因此今年將無法按原計劃發貨。由於其他特殊情況，該客戶現已決定為該工具下達系統升級訂單，並將於 2018 年交付，屆時它將與客戶今年將交付的另外兩個系統一起交付。考慮到 2016 年第四季因材料可用性原因而未能交付的另外一個系統，我們的系統輸出計畫為 12 個新系統，出貨計畫為 13 個。

We expect our Q1 service and field options revenue to again come in above EUR650 million driven by continued demand for Holistic Lithography options, high value upgrades, and our growing install base. For now we will report HMI revenues under field options and services. Gross margin for Q1 is again expected to be around 47% including the effect from the purchase price allocation for the HMI acquisition. The negative impact of this purchase price allocation adjustment for Q1 is more than 1 percentage point. The impact for the full year is about EUR90 million and will reduce to about EUR40 million per year from 2018 onwards. R&D expenses for Q1 will be about EUR320 million and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR95 million.

我們預計，由於對整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的持續需求，我們的第一季服務和現場選項收入將再次超過 6.5 億歐元。目前，我們將在現場選項和服務下報告 HMI 收入。包括 HMI 收購的購買價格分配的影響在內，第一季的毛利率預計仍為 47% 左右。本次收購價格分配調整對第一季的負面影響在1個百分點以上。全年影響約 9,000 萬歐元，從 2018 年起將減少至每年約 4,000 萬歐元。第一季的研發費用約為 3.2 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 9,500 萬歐元。

The uptick in R&D spend is driven by the inclusion of HMI and accelerated investments in pattern fidelity metrology our contributions to SMT's High NA developments, our own High NA development acceleration, and the strong US dollar. As a reminder regarding our share buyback program. Last year we purchased EUR400 million worth of our own shares before the program was paused during our acquisition of HMI. It remains paused for the time being as we close our planned investment in Zeiss SMT. The transaction is in the regulatory approval process in the required jurisdictions. We've already received the approval in South Korea and expect the approval from Germany and China in time to close the transaction in Q2 2017. And finally, an increase of our annual dividend from EUR1.05 to EUR1.20 will be proposed at our Annual General Meeting of shareholders in April.

研發支出的成長得益於 HMI 的納入和對圖案保真計量的加速投資、我們對 SMT 高 NA 開發的貢獻、我們自己的高 NA 開發加速以及強勢美元。關於我們的股票回購計畫的提醒。去年，我們購買了價值 4 億歐元的自有股票，之後因收購 HMI 而暫停了該計畫。由於我們已結束對蔡司 SMT 的計劃投資，該項目暫時暫停。該交易正在所需司法管轄區的監管審批過程中。我們已經獲得韓國的批准，並期待德國和中國的批准，以便在 2017 年第二季完成交易。最後，我們將在 4 月的年度股東大會上提議將年度股息從 1.05 歐元增加到 1.20 歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. 2016 was indeed a remarkable year for ASML not only financially as highlighted by Wolfgang, but strategically and product technology wise as we continue to prepare ourselves for continued growth in the coming decade and beyond. I'd like to take a moment to highlight some of these key events. Firstly, our acquisition of HMI will enable us to move from simple imaging and imaging placement significantly in the direction of full pattern fidelity control, which is a key requirement and value provider for our customers at 7 nanometer and below. This along with an expansion of our current products into broader types of applications allows us to lay the foundation for future growth in our Holistic Lithography products group.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。2016 年對 ASML 來說確實是非凡的一年，這不僅體現在 Wolfgang 所強調的財務方面，也體現在策略和產品技術方面，因為我們將繼續為未來十年及以後的持續成長做好準備。我想花點時間來強調其中一些關鍵事件。首先，我們對 HMI 的收購將使我們能夠從簡單的成像和成像放置向全圖案保真度控制的方向邁進，這是 7 奈米及以下客戶的關鍵要求和價值提供者。這與將我們現有的產品擴展到更廣泛的應用類型一起，為我們的整體光刻產品組的未來發展奠定了基礎。

Secondly, we brought a key supplier partnership to the next level by agreeing to acquire a minority stake of Carl Zeiss, our major critical optics supplier, for the purpose of not only securing the extension of EUV imaging technology, but also strengthening the current combined businesses of the two companies to improve cooperation and governance. The co-investment of about EUR760 million over a six year period centers on the R&D investments of next generation lenses and related capital expenditure also referred to as High NA, which is critical in meeting our customers' imaging roadmaps throughout the next decade. Lastly and probably more significantly, the industry has turned the corner on EUV. Throughout the year we continued to execute on mutually agreed performance milestones, which allowed our customers to grow confidence in the technology and tool performance.

其次，我們同意收購我們的主要關鍵光學供應商卡爾蔡司的少數股權，將關鍵供應商合作夥伴關係提升到一個新的水平，目的不僅是為了確保 EUV 成像技術的擴展，也是為了加強兩家公司目前的合併業務，以改善合作和治理。六年內約 7.6 億歐元的共同投資主要集中在下一代鏡頭的研發投資和相關資本支出（也稱為高 NA），這對於滿足我們客戶未來十年的成像路線圖至關重要。最後，或許更重要的是，該產業在 EUV 方面已經取得了突破。全年我們持續執行雙方商定的績效里程碑，這使我們的客戶對技術和工具性能更有信心。

This resulted in customer decisions to allocate their most critical layers of the next generation nodes to EUV beginning with the industry 7 nanometer logic node. With customers backing this confidence up with orders, we ended the year with an EUV backlog of 18 systems as mentioned. Together with the anticipated Q1 orders, this will cover our 2017 and early 2018 EUV output. As mentioned before, our output capability for 2018 will be around 24 systems. Based on the timing of high volume manufacturing introduction of the advanced logic and memory nodes as announced by our customers, it is realistic to assume that this production capability will be fully utilized by our customers. This means we would expect a continued order flow in the coming quarters.

這導致客戶決定從工業 7 奈米邏輯節點開始將下一代節點的最關鍵層分配給 EUV。在客戶透過訂單支持這種信心的情況下，我們在年底的 EUV 訂單量已達到 18 個系統（如上所述）。加上預期的第一季訂單，這將涵蓋我們 2017 年和 2018 年初的 EUV 產量。如同先前所提到的，我們2018年的輸出能力將在24個系統左右。根據我們的客戶宣布的大規模生產引入先進邏輯和記憶體節點的時間，我們可以現實地認為，我們的客戶將充分利用這項生產能力。這意味著我們預計未來幾個季度訂單流將繼續增加。

As we move into the next phase of industrialization of EUV, our focus will remain on continued improvement of key HVM performance metrics very much in line with what customers expect of our DPV offering, above 90% availability and productivity per tool specifications. Furthermore, we are heightening our focus on our supply chain to provide the required number of EUV systems on time and on preparing a competent and sufficiently sizable EUV field service organization capable of supporting our customers in the volume manufacturing installation plants. With respect to our core product lines, we continued to develop industry leading imaging systems evidenced by the introduction of our latest immersion product offering, the NXT:1980, which has demonstrated the fastest ramp of a new product in our history with 46 systems shipped in 2016.

隨著我們進入 EUV 工業化的下一階段，我們的重點仍將放在持續改進關鍵 HVM 效能指標上，這與客戶對我們的 DPV 產品的期望非常一致，即每個工具規格的可用性和生產率均超過 90%。此外，我們正在加強對供應鏈的關注，以便按時提供所需數量的 EUV 系統，並準備一個有能力且規模足夠大的 EUV 現場服務組織，為批量生產安裝工廠的客戶提供支援。就我們的核心產品線而言，我們繼續開發業界領先的成像系統，我們推出的最新沉浸式產品 NXT:1980 就是明證，該產品是我們歷史上新產品增長最快的產品，2016 年共出貨 46 套系統。

For our Holistic Lithography product line, 2016 was also a good year where we launched new products by penetrating new large customer accounts promising significant new business in the years to come. Together with the aforementioned progress on the EUV product performance and related business opportunities, we feel confident in further anchoring our leadership position in the semiconductor equipment marketplace. And turning to the short term, as Wolfgang mentioned, we expect to build upon a record 2016 seeing further significant opportunities to grow in 2017. We see a continued ramp of the foundry logic 10 nanometer node as recently confirmed by one of our large foundry customers with memory strength driven by expected stronger bit growth in 2017. In addition, service and field option sales are again expected to continue to grow in 2017.

對於我們的整體光刻產品線來說，2016 年也是一個好年頭，我們透過打入新的大客戶推出了新產品，並預示著未來幾年將帶來大量新業務。結合上述EUV產品性能的進步及相關業務機會，我們有信心進一步鞏固我們在半導體設備市場的領導地位。就短期而言，正如沃爾夫岡所提到的，我們預計在 2016 年創紀錄的基礎上，2017 年將迎來更多重大成長機會。我們看到代工邏輯 10 奈米節點的持續成長，正如我們的一家大型代工客戶最近證實的那樣，預計 2017 年記憶體實力將更加強勁。此外，預計2017年服務和現場選項銷售額將持續成長。

This will continue to be driven by sales of scanner system upgrades and our growing Holistic Lithography product offering. In 2017, we'll see the first real impact of EUV system sales with the recognition of systems shipped in the calendar year as well as pieces of remaining revenue recognition from systems shipped in the past. For 2017, our opportunities and challenges are crystal clear. The commitment of our customers to EUV is now apparent and evidenced by our significant and growing EUV backlog. Supporting our customer's intent for moving EUV into volume production in the coming 24 months will remain our number one priority in order to ensure that our customers can deliver the next node transitions as planned. ASML remains committed to do everything within our capability and power to bring EUV to manufacturing as soon as possible.

這將繼續受到掃描器系統升級的銷售和我們不斷增長的整體光刻產品供應的推動。2017 年，我們將首次看到 EUV 系統銷售的真正影響，包括對日曆年內出貨系統的確認以及過去出貨系統的剩餘收入確認。2017年，我們的機會和挑戰十分清晰。我們的客戶對 EUV 的承諾現已顯而易見，並由我們大量且不斷增長的 EUV 積壓訂單證明。支援客戶在未來 24 個月內將 EUV 投入大量生產的意圖仍將是我們的首要任務，以確保我們的客戶能夠按計劃完成下一個節點轉換。ASML 將繼續致力於盡一切努力盡快將 EUV 投入製造。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you for letting us to take some extra time to review in some depth key events of 2016 and their impact on our future. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. But beforehand as I always do, I'd like to ask you kindly to limit yourself to one question and one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get as many callers in the hour as possible. Now Aaron, could we have your final instructions and then the first question please?

感謝您讓我們花一些額外的時間來深入回顧 2016 年的重要事件及其對我們未來的影響。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。但在此之前，正如我一貫的做法，我希望您只問一個問題，如有必要，請您只進行一次簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠在一小時內接到盡可能多的來電。現在 Aaron，您可以給我們最後的指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will start the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Weston Twigg.

女士們、先生們，現在我們將開始問答環節。（操作員指示）Weston Twigg。

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest. So, my question is related to the memory strength. You mentioned that it should stay strong through 2017 particularly on the DRAM side with bit growth and I was just wondering if you're seeing new DRAM capacity being installed given the pricing trends or if these are tools that are being shipped in the end and then replaced in the DRAM fabs?

韋斯頓·特維格 (Weston Twigg)，太平洋山脊。所以，我的問題與記憶強度有關。您提到，2017 年它應該會保持強勁勢頭，特別是在 DRAM 方面，比特率會增長，我只是想知道，考慮到定價趨勢，您是否看到新的 DRAM 容量正在安裝，或者這些工具最終是否會被發貨，然後在 DRAM 工廠中被替換？

It's more of the latter. So, we've seen significant relocations from DRAM capacity into NAND throughout 2016 or starting in 2015 and is really feeling it all back up. Like we said in the previous call, we saw quite a significant capacity drop in 2016 in terms of wafer starts per month in DRAM, which is a double-digit drop and that's being filled up with new DRAM capacity.

更多的是後者。因此，我們看到從 2016 年到 2015 年，DRAM 產能大量轉移到 NAND，並且確實感覺到了這一切的復甦。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，我們看到 2016 年 DRAM 每月晶圓開工量出現大幅下降，降幅達到兩位數，而這些下降正在被新的 DRAM 產能所填補。

Okay. And then I guess as my follow-up, those upgrades on the NAND side, are those being upgrades that are contributing to your field and service options or is that a different revenue line or are those even being upgraded?

好的。然後我想問一下，NAND 方面的升級是否會對您的現場和服務選項有所貢獻，或者這是不同的收入線，或者這些升級是否正在進行中？

It's the first. These are the upgrades that are in the field service and option line.

這是第一次。這些是現場服務和選項線路中的升級。

Kai Korschelt.

凱·科舍爾特。

Kai Korschelt, Bank of America. The first one was, Peter, just to clarify your commentary around the EUV shipments next year. So, I think I heard you say it's realistic to expect 24 tools. What would be the sort of puts and takes on kind of whether you would ship capacity or maybe potentially slightly less in terms of adoption and capacity? And the second question was on the Chinese CapEx and I think you said something on the video on your website. Some of the data points that has been making the rounds of the press suggests that there could be tens of billions of dollars spend on new memory fabs in China. So I'm just wondering in terms of the phasing, timing, or magnitude; how much visibility do you have on those projects? Thank you.

Kai Korschelt，美國銀行。第一個問題是，彼得，我只是想澄清一下你對明年 EUV 出貨量的評論。所以，我想我聽到您說期望 24 種工具是現實的。在採用率和容量方面，您是否會提高運輸能力或可能稍微降低運輸能力，會面臨什麼樣的風險和承擔？第二個問題是關於中國的資本支出，我想您在您網站的影片中已經提到了一些內容。一些媒體廣泛報導的數據表明，中國可能會斥資數百億美元建造新的記憶體工廠。所以我只是想知道階段、時間或幅度方面的情況；您對這些項目的了解程度如何？謝謝。

On 2018 the determining factor is not so much our capability or the performance of the tool, it is really as you can understand the next nodes of our customers have complexities in there that are not only driven by our capability or our lithography capability. This is really based on the introduction timing of our customers. So when all our major customers make public statements about when they want to introduce their next nodes and start using EUV, we take those statements and actually we don't only take the public statements to be honest, we have very detailed discussions with those customers on those public statements and what that means.

2018 年的決定性因素並不是我們的能力或工具的性能，而是正如你所理解的，我們客戶的下一個節點的複雜性不僅僅是由我們的能力或光刻能力所驅動的。這實際上是基於我們客戶的引入時間。因此，當我們所有主要客戶公開聲明何時想要推出下一個節點並開始使用 EUV 時，我們都會採納這些聲明，實際上，我們不僅僅採納公開聲明，說實話，我們還與這些客戶就這些公開聲明及其含義進行了非常詳細的討論。

So, we get very detailed plans of when they need what tool when and that is really driving the let's say realistic assumption that when we have 24 units to sell, we will sell 24 units when they stick to their plans. So this is basically what it is, there's nothing more to it than that. So, customers will decide and it could be that if one customer says I for whatever reason need to do an introduction six months or later, there will be a six month rescheduling. That's what really drives the business. China CapEx, it's interesting. We also have a lot of interest following every comment that comes out of China, all the tens of billions that will be invested in all kinds of fabs all over the place. But you also have to look at what impact that will have on our short-term business.

因此，我們得到了非常詳細的計劃，說明他們何時需要什麼工具，這確實推動了我們所說的現實假設，即當我們有 24 個單位要出售時，只要他們堅持計劃，我們就會賣出 24 個單位。所以基本上就是這樣，沒有其他內容了。因此，客戶會做出決定，如果一個客戶說我出於某種原因需要在六個月或更晚的時候做介紹，那麼就會有六個月的重新安排。這才是真正推動業務發展的因素。中國的資本支出，很有趣。我們也非常關注來自中國的每一條評論，數百億美元將投資於各地的各種晶圓廠。但你也必須考慮這會對我們的短期業務產生什麼影響。

Now short term yes, there are many ceremonies of fab openings or fab extensions I would say, the number of real new fabs is limited or let's say Chinese owned companies. Of course there are the foreign companies that open fabs in China, but I think the reference to the tens of billions are really Chinese owned companies. Definitely I promise when we look at the next 12 to 18 months, it is good. There's some good logic opportunity, there's some memory opportunity there; but it's all within the realms of good business and not the extraordinary growth that some people are portraying. That will very likely happen, but it's very likely also going to take a bit more time than the 2017/2018 timeframe.

現在短期內是的，我想說有很多晶圓廠開業或擴建的儀式，但真正的新晶圓廠數量是有限的，或者說是中國公司擁有的。當然，也有一些外國公司在中國開設晶圓廠，但我認為提到的數百億美元實際上是指中國公司。我確信，當我們展望未來 12 到 18 個月時，情況會很好。這其中存在著一些很好的邏輯機會，也存在著一些記憶機會；但這一切都屬於良好商業的範疇，而不是某些人所描繪的非凡成長。這很有可能發生，但很可能也會比 2017/2018 年的時間框架花費更多的時間。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

This is Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan. Just a quick question, Peter, on the order intake. In the fourth quarter you took orders for six EUV tools and at the same time we have some expectation that you will sign volume purchase agreements with some of your large customers for these EUV tools. So, is it now that you will be taking these EUV orders as a normal part of the business as you seem to have done in the fourth quarter or are we to still expect volume purchase agreements in the next few months? And I have one quick follow-up question on the 2018 shipments.

我是摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。彼得，我只想問一個簡單的問題，關於訂單量。在第四季度，您接到了六種 EUV 工具的訂單，同時我們預計您將與一些大客戶簽署這些 EUV 工具的大量購買協議。那麼，現在您是否會將這些 EUV 訂單作為業務的正常組成部分，就像您在第四季度所做的那樣，還是我們仍然期待在未來幾個月內達成大量購買協議？我還有一個關於 2018 年出貨量的後續問題。

On the order intake in Q4, that was based on a volume purchase agreement for you could say the 3400 delivery. It does not include yet the additional options that they need on those 3400. So you could say if there's a fully signed and closed volume purchase agreement with that customer not entirely because the options are still under discussion, what they need and the economics of it. But yes, those orders were indeed taken under the agreements that we have on the pricing and the pricing models. That's just for one customer. Other customers will follow suit as we continue in 2017. And for those who will introduce EUV later, those VPAs will be also signed later on in 2018. So as you said, it's the normal course of business.

關於第四季的訂單量，這是基於批量採購協議的，可以說是 3400 份的交付量。它也不包含 3400 上所需的附加選項。因此，您可以說，如果與該客戶簽署了完全簽署的批量購買協議，那麼這並不完全是因為選項仍在討論中，他們需要什麼以及它的經濟效益。但是，是的，這些訂單確實是根據我們達成的定價和定價模式協議而接受的。這僅針對一位顧客。隨著我們在 2017 年繼續採取這項舉措，其他客戶也將跟進。對於那些稍後將引入 EUV 的國家，這些 VPA 也將於 2018 年稍後簽署。正如您所說，這是正常的業務流程。

And then following on to 2018 shipments, you're going to have this capacity for 24 tools potentially and then you've already got six of those orders at this point. By which point do you need to get all your orders so that that capacity will be readied for the customer? Because you've said in the past that you take almost a year to ship these tools and then there is a time which the customer takes to install the tool in their own facility and get it stabilized.

然後，隨著 2018 年的出貨，您將有可能擁有 24 種工具的生產能力，而此時您已經收到了 6 個這樣的訂單。您需要在什麼時候獲得所有訂單，以便為客戶準備好產能？因為您過去曾說過，您需要花費將近一年的時間來運送這些工具，然後客戶還需要一段時間才能在自己的工廠中安裝該工具並使其穩定下來。

The time to ship and install is about a year so it's not plus, plus. So, it's not for us a time of the year to ship the tool. Our time is we can ship an EUV tool so we can install an EUV tool in about three to four months and we have currently an interval or a cycle time in the factory of about six months. So all-in-all for us it takes about nine months from start of the tool to get it installed at the customer side. Now then the customer needs to of course start to qualify the production. The issue is in their supply chain and in their supply chain we need lenses, we need large mechanical modules that need to be produced, and this is limiting our output capability right now.

運輸和安裝的時間大約需要一年，所以這並不是額外的好處。所以，現在還不是我們運送工具的時候。我們的時間是，我們可以運送 EUV 工具，因此我們可以在大約三到四個月內安裝 EUV 工具，而我們目前在工廠的間隔或週期時間約為六個月。所以總的來說，從開始使用該工具到在客戶端安裝它大約需要九個月的時間。現在客戶當然需要開始對生產進行鑑定。問題在於他們的供應鏈，在他們的供應鏈中我們需要鏡頭，我們需要生產大型機械模組，而這限制了我們目前的產出能力。

However, having said that to your earlier questions, we are in very intense and deep discussions with customers on volume purchase agreements and it is also clear that those customers need those tools at a certain moment, day, and time. And taking into account our cycle time reduction plans, it is not absolutely necessary throughout 2017 that we need to keep on to this two year timeline. That will go down, that will be shorter because we will reduce the cycle time as volumes go up. However, to be able to ship 24 units in 2018, those systems need to be booked by the end of the year so in this year. Now if you're going to ask me when should those orders come in; is it Q1, is it Q2, or really Q3; I don't know yet and it's not that important. But what I do know is that if we need to ship 24 units in 2017, those orders need to be in.

然而，就您先前的問題而言，我們正在與客戶就批量採購協議進行非常激烈和深入的討論，而且很明顯，這些客戶在某個時刻、某天和某個時間需要這些工具。考慮到我們的周期時間縮短計劃，我們在 2017 年全年沒有必要堅持這個兩年的時間表。這個數字將會下降，將會更短，因為隨著產量的增加，我們將縮短週期時間。然而，為了能夠在 2018 年出貨 24 台，這些系統需要在年底前預訂，也就是在今年。現在如果你要問我這些訂單什麼時候應該到達；是 Q1、是 Q2 還是真的是 Q3；我還不知道，而且這也不是那麼重要。但我確實知道的是，如果我們需要在 2017 年運送 24 台，就需要下這些訂單。

C.J Muse.

C.J 繆斯。

C.J. Muse, Evercore ISI. So first question, can you walk through how we should think about the gross margin for EUV through calendar 2017 and particularly interested how we should think about the inclusion of deferred 100% margins through the year? Thank you.

C.J. Muse，Evercore ISI。所以第一個問題，您能否解釋一下我們應該如何考慮 2017 年 EUV 的毛利率，特別是我們應該如何考慮全年納入遞延 100% 的利潤率？謝謝。

I'll take that, C.J. We painted the picture at our Investor Day as well. The starting point is a gross margin if you take everything into consideration of about minus 75% in 2016. Our objective is to get this business breakeven from a gross margin perspective in 2017 and then in 2018 you would make another significant step forward we are thinking somewhere in the 20%s or so. Of course there are a few things that contribute to that and you're right, some of the catch-up revenue that essentially comes at no or low cost will help. But it also will help that this year we are shipping the 3400, which has a list price that's about EUR20 million higher than that the 3350s. We're also going to continue to make progress on the cost side.

我接受，C.J。我們在投資者日也描繪了這幅圖景。如果把所有因素都考慮進去，那麼起點就是 2016 年的毛利率約為負 75%。我們的目標是在 2017 年從毛利率的角度實現該業務的收支平衡，然後在 2018 年再邁出重要一步，我們預計毛利率將在 20% 左右。當然，有幾個因素會促成這種情況，您說得對，一些基本上免費或低成本獲得的補繳收入會有所幫助。但今年我們將推出 3400，其定價比 3350 高出約 2000 萬歐元，這也將有所幫助。我們也將繼續在成本方面取得進展。

We still have significant amounts of field upgrades that we have to do for no charges. We have learning to do, we are making progress on that front as well. And if you then take into consideration also the service business where as you know, we are charging per wafer out; but we got to mind a growing installed base that is not productive in churning out a lot of wafers. So, we are still spending a significant amount of money on this without revenue coming in. But if you take it all into consideration, we are targeting around breakeven. As it relates to the total business, we were about 45% gross margin in 2016.

我們仍有大量的現場升級需要免費完成。我們還有很多事情要學，我們在這方面也正在取得進展。如果你還考慮到服務業務，如你所知，我們是按每片晶圓收費的；但我們必須考慮到，不斷增長的安裝基礎無法高效地生產出大量的晶圓。因此，我們仍然在這上面花費了大量的資金，但卻沒有收入。但如果把所有因素都考慮進去，我們的目標是損益平衡。就整體業務而言，我們 2016 年的毛利率約為 45%。

I think we are going to continue to make progress in both businesses EUV going from minus 75% to about breakeven, but also the non-EUV business because the mix is shifting towards applications and more higher value systems will make progress as well. But overall I think for your modeling purposes, you should assume that the total Company gross margin will somewhat go down because you're growing the revenue significantly on the EUV line. So, should expect a little bit of a step back there before then in 2018 we are marching towards the 50% plus that we're targeting for 2020.

我認為，我們將繼續在 EUV 業務上取得進展，從虧損 75% 成長到盈虧平衡，而且非 EUV 業務也將取得進展，因為業務組合正在向應用方向轉變，更多更高價值的系統也將取得進展。但總的來說，我認為出於建模目的，您應該假設公司的總毛利率會有所下降，因為您在 EUV 生產線上的收入大幅增加。因此，在 2018 年之前，我們應該會稍微退後一步，但我們正朝著 2020 年 50% 以上的目標邁進。

Just as a quick follow-up there, are you thinking closer to like 43%, 44%? And then as my follow-up on the foundry side, orders ex-EUV came in fairly weak I think sub EUR300 million in the December quarter. How should we think about the timing of a pickup there? Is that simply turns where they will place the order upon your shipment and therefore really not an issue and how do we think about the trajectory as we contemplate 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer RAM?

作為一個快速的後續問題，您是否認為這個數字更接近 43% 或 44%？然後，隨著我對代工的跟進，我發現 EUV 以外的訂單相當疲軟，我認為 12 月季度的訂單低於 3 億歐元。我們應該如何考慮在那裡進行接機？這是否只是他們在您發貨時下訂單的地方，因此實際上不是一個問題，當我們考慮 10 奈米和 7 奈米 RAM 時，我們如何思考軌跡？

Without tying it down to a specific number, but I think with everything that we gave you between Peter on the shipments, on EUV, and the margin; I think you are in the right zip code there on the gross margins. Related to orders, first of all we are thrilled to be at an overall backlog of EUR4 billion. Having said that, same story as in prior calls. We published the backlog because it gives you a decent structural view on what's happening in the business; you see memory picking up, you see a lot of EUV orders coming in. But we always say that just merely looking at bookings or backlog should not be your main input barometer in the outlook because as you know, the order at the end of the day in particular for the more mature business is merely an administrative act. We have VPAs with all of our customers and every other week we get a detailed sales forecast and order forecast against that and that is what's giving us the confidence in the numbers. So, we were not the slightest bit disappointed about bookings last quarter.

沒有將其限制在一個特定的數字上，但我認為我們在 Peter 之間提供的有關出貨量、EUV 和利潤的所有資訊；我認為您的毛利率郵遞區號是正確的。關於訂單，首先，我們很高興看到訂單總額達到 40 億歐元。話雖如此，但與之前的通話中的情況相同。我們發布了積壓工作，因為它可以讓您對業務中正在發生的事情有一個合理的結構化視圖；你會看到內存在回升，你會看到大量的 EUV 訂單湧入。但我們總是說，僅僅查看預訂量或積壓量不應該成為您預測前景的主要指標，因為如您所知，特別是對於更成熟的企業而言，一天結束時的訂單僅僅是一種行政行為。我們與所有客戶都有 VPA，每隔一周我們就會收到詳細的銷售預測和訂單預測，這讓我們對數字充滿信心。因此，我們對上個季度的預訂情況一點也不失望。

Timothy Arcuri.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen & Company. Wolfgang, first of all in the presentation on the metrics around EUV, you definitely showed some continued improvement in availability. You had two tools that showed a four week average of greater than 90% versus one last quarter, but there was no improvement in productivity. Is that because it's not your focus right now? I guess I would have thought maybe you've seen more than just one tool producing 1,500 wafers per day over that three day period.

提摩西·阿庫裡，考恩公司。沃爾夫岡，首先，在關於 EUV 指標的演示中，您明確展示了可用性方面的持續改進。您有兩種工具，與上一季相比，其四週平均值超過 90%，但生產力並未提高。是不是因為這不是你現在關注的重點？我想，也許您看到過不只一個工具在這三天內每天生產 1,500 片晶圓。

Let me answer that, Tim. First of all, the reason why we put those metrics in there is one, to be able to communicate to you; but also to our customers what we believed at that time when we created those metrics the most relevant milestones were that customers used to get convinced that EUV was going to be the choice of their next generation leading edge litho production. Having said that, meeting those targets and not only those targets, it was continued let's say showing off of those targets throughout the year that actually raised the customer's confidence to the level to also publicly state we're going to use EUV and they followed that up with orders as you have seen. Now just for your information, we are over 200 wattsorders which will actually provide us way more than 1,500 wafers per day and that's what we've shown the customers. That's all.

讓我來回答這個問題，提姆。首先，我們把這些指標放在那裡的原因是為了能夠與你溝通；而且對於我們的客戶來說，我們在創建這些指標時也相信，最相關的里程碑是，客戶曾經確信 EUV 將成為他們下一代前沿光刻生產的選擇。話雖如此，達到這些目標，而且不僅僅是這些目標，我們還在全年持續展示這些目標，這實際上提高了客戶的信心，使他們能夠公開聲明我們將使用 EUV，並且正如您所見，他們隨後下了訂單。現在僅供您參考，我們的訂單超過 200 瓦，實際上每天可以為我們提供超過 1,500 個晶圓，這就是我們向客戶展示的。就這樣。

It is about the confidence that we will be at high volume production requirements by the time that customers need it and that's what's shown with those targets. The targets going forward I would like to relate to are the targets that they need for higher volume introduction like I said in my introductory comments. It's like with Deep UV where we're moving into that in all direction. Like Sandeep said, it's business as usual; we will be over if we have to be and we will be over 90% availability when they need it when they start [HVI] production and we'll be at the productivity of wafers per day as specified by the tool specifications, i.e. 125 wafers per hour. This is where we are and this is why we're absolutely confident that we're going to get there and that's why it is the last time we are going to give you these targeted numbers because those milestones have been met evidenced by their customer orders.

我們有信心在客戶需要時滿足大量生產的要求，而這些目標就體現了這一點。我想提及的未來目標是他們需要更大批量引進的目標，就像我在介紹評論中所說的那樣。這就像深紫外線一樣，我們正從各個方向朝它邁進。就像桑迪普說的，一切照常；如果必須的話，我們將會超過，當他們開始 [HVI] 生產時，我們的可用性將超過 90%，並且我們將達到工具規格所規定的每天晶圓的生產率，即每小時125片晶圓。這就是我們現在的狀況，這也是為什麼我們絕對有信心能夠實現這一目標，這也是為什麼這是我們最後一次向您提供這些目標數字，因為這些里程碑已經得到滿足，客戶訂單就是明證。

And then as just as it relates to backlog on EUV. So you have 18 systems in backlog, you have slots for 12 this year so obviously 6 of those are going to ship next year. Since you have 24 slots give or take next year, does that mean that backlog can only be 24 exiting this year or is the policy such that if you get an order even if it's going to ship 18 months from now, you're going to put in backlog so that the backlog exiting this year can be actually a lot higher than the 24 slots that you have next year? Thanks.

然後就像它與 EUV 的積壓有關。因此，您有 18 個系統積壓，今年有 12 個空位，因此顯然其中 6 個將於明年發貨。由於明年你們有大約 24 個部位，這是否意味著今年的積壓訂單量只能是 24 個？或者政策是這樣的，如果你接到訂單，即使該訂單將在 18 個月後發貨，你也會將其放入積壓訂單中，這樣今年的積壓訂單量實際上會比明年的 24 個倉位高得多？謝謝。

That's correct. Like I said, probably if you would in 2016 we had 24-month lead time. That will go down, but it's not going to be 12 months by the end of this year. So, it's very likely that there are going to be 2019 orders in there.

沒錯。就像我說的，如果在 2016 年，我們可能有 24 個月的交貨時間。這個數字將會下降，但到今年年底不會達到 12 個月。因此，其中很有可能有 2019 年的訂單。

Amit Harchandani.

阿米特·哈爾錢達尼。

Amit Harchandani from Citigroup. Firstly, my question is with respect to the technical milestones that you referred to earlier. Could you maybe talk about what are the key areas of improvement that you're working on within the tool that need to be completed this year or are on the verge of being completed that would take you to the targets you've talked about for commercial introduction in terms of the technological progress? And secondly, could you also give us a sense of what's happening in the wider ecosystem particularly around defectivity and pellicles any other components within the ecosystem, if you could kindly share any updates around those? Thank you.

花旗集團的阿米特‧哈昌達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。首先，我的問題是關於您之前提到的技術里程碑。您能否談談您正在對工具進行哪些關鍵改進？這些改進需要在今年完成，或即將完成，以便實現您在技術進步方面談到的商業化推廣目標？其次，您能否讓我們了解一下更廣泛的生態系統中正在發生的事情，特別是圍繞缺陷和薄膜以及生態系統中的任何其他組成部分的情況，您是否可以分享有關這些方面的最新進展？謝謝。

On the key areas of improvement, it's really focused on lifetime extensions of parts. So it's the industrialization of those parts, lifetime extensions, taking out some of the quality issues that we know what to do. That actually brings us to those targets that customers need for high volume introduction, 90% plus availability and productivity at spec. On the ecosystem I think two things, resist and pellicles. Resist, good progress and we get progress reports every now and then and over the last couple of weeks we got some good progress reports of photoresist and on photoresist sensitivity, on linage roughness data and information that give customers good confidence that by end of 2018, 2019 we're going to get what we want. On the pellicle, we have started to outsource the pellicle production to a supplier that actually should make the pellicles for the industry for our customers.

在改進的關鍵領域，它真正關注的是零件壽命的延長。因此，我們知道該怎麼做，實現這些零件的工業化、延長其使用壽命、解決一些品質問題。這實際上使我們達到了客戶所需的大批量推出的目標，即 90% 以上的可用性和按規格生產率。關於生態系統，我認為有兩件事，即抗蝕劑和薄膜。抗蝕劑方面，進展順利，我們不時會收到進度報告，在過去的幾周里，我們收到了一些關於光阻、光阻靈敏度、線粗糙度數據和信息的良好進度報告，這些報告讓客戶有信心，到 2018 年底或 2019 年底，我們就能得到我們想要的東西。對於防護薄膜，我們已經開始將防護薄膜的生產外包給一家供應商，該供應商實際上應該為我們的客戶生產該行業的防護薄膜。

Initially there was a process that yielded low because pellicles still had some defects on it on the pellicle itself. As you can imagine if a pellicle is a membrane sitting in front of the photomask, you don't want any a defects on that pellicle because they're big, they will actually print. Now by the end of the year we actually received the first defect free pellicle and also there we were seeing progress that everybody is looking for. It is not our main concern. What our concern is yes, the supply base of those pellicles will be maturing also so we get a constant flow of defect free pellicles. But if you look at the progress that we have made in the last six months, that gives us the confidence that also by the time when we need the [H] volume, the HVM requirements, we will be there.

最初，有一個製程的產量較低，因為薄膜本身仍然存在一些缺陷。你可以想像，如果防護薄膜是位於光掩模前面的一層膜，你不希望防護薄膜上出現任何缺陷，因為它們很大，它們實際上會列印出來。現在到今年年底，我們實際上收到了第一片無缺陷的薄膜，我們也看到了每個人都在期待的進展。這不是我們主要關心的問題。我們關心的是，這些薄膜的供應基礎也將日益成熟，因此我們可以獲得源源不絕的無缺陷薄膜。但如果你看看我們在過去六個月中取得的進展，你就會有信心，當我們需要 [H] 產量、HVM 要求時，我們也會滿足。

Just a couple of clarifications on what you said. Firstly, with respect to the technical progress with respect to your tool. But just so that I understand correctly there are all incremental improvements really around lifetime extensions, but there is no radical improvement that you need to do, all of that is behind us in 2016. That would not be a correct statement to make technically. And secondly, is the topic of actinic inspection tool when it comes to EUV behind us or does that still come up in your conversations that you think the workaround is pretty much accepted now by all the customers who are looking to move on with EUV?

我只想對你所說的內容做幾點澄清。首先，關於您的工具的技術進步。但為了正確理解，我確實在延長使用壽命方面確實有一些漸進式的改進，但不需要根本性的改進，所有這些都將在 2016 年過去。從技術角度來說，這並不是一個正確的說法。其次，當談到 EUV 時，光化檢測工具的話題是否已經過去了，或者在您的談話中是否仍然提到這個話題，您認為現在所有希望使用 EUV 的客戶都已經接受了這種解決方法？

That's correct. We do not have any discussions on actinic inspection at this moment and the workarounds that we currently have either through the pellicle use or on-wafer inspection using tools EVM tools. That is really what the solutions are that customers are currently using. Now the discussion on actinic inspection tools over time and in the next decade might come back, but we'll see how effectively current solutions are.

沒錯。目前，我們還沒有討論過光化檢測以及我們目前透過使用防護薄膜或使用工具 EVM 工具進行晶圓上檢測的解決方法。這確實就是客戶目前正在使用的解決方案。現在，關於光化檢測工具在未來十年內的討論可能會再次出現，但我們將看看當前解決方案的有效性。

Gareth Jenkins.

加雷斯·詹金斯。

Gareth Jenkins from UBS. Just a follow-up on memory, you have a slightly more positive tone on this. Does this include in addition to the 1980s that you're talking about some KrF business? And secondly, I just wonder whether you could talk about your expectation in terms of conversion of the 7 nanometer node for your large foundry customers from 10 nanometer. Thank you.

瑞銀的 Gareth Jenkins。只是對記憶的後續了解，你對此的態度稍微正面一點。除了您談論的 20 世紀 80 年代之外，這還包括一些 KrF 業務嗎？其次，我想知道您是否可以談談對於大型代工客戶從 10 奈米轉換到 7 奈米節點的期望。謝謝。

Gareth, could you be a bit more specific on your last question on the conversion, what do you want to know?

加雷斯，您能否更具體地回答關於轉換的最後一個問題，您想知道什麼？

I just like to know the sort of level of conversion that you expect between the 10 nanometer and the 7 nanometer node given the similarity or the commonality between the tools. So, would you expect it to be more or less than kind of what we saw with prior nodes?

我只是想知道，考慮到工具之間的相似性或共性，您期望 10 奈米和 7 奈米節點之間的轉換水平如何。那麼，您是否認為它會比我們在先前的節點上看到的更多還是更少？

On the memory, presumably yes, with only 1980s; we always ship if you add some extra capacity some KrF. But going back to an earlier question, this is really backing up the installed capacity that was relocated to NAND, which were basically immersion systems where they were upgraded in the NAND space. So it's predominantly NXTs, but we always have some level of capacity space that is in the existing fabs which also need some KrF, but it's largely NXTs. The level of conversion from 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer. There's always a level of conversion from 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer, which would include upgrades. So the level of commonality from a platform point of view is always there, but it's really the performance on overlay and focus that drives really upgrades.

就記憶而言，大概是的，只有 1980 年代；如果您添加一些額外的容量，我們總是會發貨一些 KrF。但回到先前的問題，這實際上是在備份遷移到 NAND 的安裝容量，這些容量基本上是浸入式系統，它們在 NAND 空間中進行了升級。因此，主要是 NXT，但我們現有晶圓廠中始終有一定程度的產能空間，這些晶圓廠也需要一些 KrF，但主要是 NXT。從10奈米到7奈米的轉換水準。從 10 奈米到 7 奈米總是有一個轉換級別，其中包括升級。因此，從平台的角度來看，共通性水平始終存在，但真正推動升級的是覆蓋和焦點方面的表現。

So when there is a reuse of an existing body in the 10 nanometer space or a previous node on to the new node, then you see upgrade business. And this is a part of the business that we see growing in 2017 where we indeed see the number of upgrades in the logic space, but also in the memory space from let's say previous platforms to the newest specification of the NXT platform really happening and that is part of the business growth that we see in the services and options. So not much different than previous nodes, it does lead to a lot of new business in terms of system upgrades.

因此，當在 10 奈米空間中重複使用現有主體或將先前的節點複製到新節點時，您將看到升級業務。這是我們在 2017 年看到的業務成長的一部分，我們確實看到邏輯空間的升級次數，而且記憶體空間從以前的平台到 NXT 平台的最新規範也在不斷更新，這是我們在服務和選項中看到的業務成長的一部分。因此與以前的節點沒有太大區別，它確實在系統升級方面帶來許多新業務。

Can I just follow-up and just ask what your expectations for the 10 nanometer. I think you've always talked about wafer starts from 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer geometries combined. I wondered whether there's been any change in the full process around the starts on 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer?

我可以繼續問一下您對 10 奈米的期望嗎？我認為您一直在談論從 10 奈米和 7 奈米幾何形狀組合開始的晶圓。我想知道 10 奈米和 7 奈米的整個製程是否發生了變化？

No, currently not. The only thing that we can say is that of course we discuss with customers their business and their plans. I only can say that the 10 nanometer/7 nanometer confidence that our customers have in being a big node driven by more than just the smartphone applications they're all talking about and it's real because it's about customers in the automotive space, customers in the space that is dealing with artificial intelligence and augmented reality, virtual reality, big data, and big data analytics. They are seeing customer applications in that space and that is driving their confidence on the node sizes and they keep repeating to us that they strongly believe based on what they see and the tape outs that are coming that it's going to be a big node.

不，目前沒有。我們唯一能說的是，我們當然會與客戶討論他們的業務和計劃。我只能說，我們的客戶對 10 奈米/7 奈米這個大節點的信心不僅僅是由他們所談論的智慧型手機應用所驅動，而且它是真實的，因為它涉及汽車領域的客戶，涉及人工智慧和擴增實境、虛擬實境、大數據和大數據分析領域的客戶。他們看到了該領域的客戶應用，這增強了他們對節點大小的信心，他們不斷向我們重複說，根據他們所看到的和即將推出的流片，他們堅信這將是一個大節點。

Francois Meunier.

弗朗索瓦·默尼耶。

Francois Meunier from Morgan Stanley. I understand what was the question around the gross margins and like the effects around it, but there is one I would like to understand a bit more. I think you guys have been talking about PPA having a negative impact this year of around EUR90 million. So it's actually a non-cash impact so like when you guide for 47% gross margin in Q1, actually the cash gross margin is more like 48%, 48.2%, or something for Q1. Is that the right way to look at it?

摩根士丹利的 Francois Meunier。我了解關於毛利率的問題以及它的影響，但有一個問題我想進一步了解。我認為你們一直在談論 PPA 今年產生的負面影響約 9000 萬歐元。因此，這實際上是一種非現金影響，例如，當您預測第一季的毛利率為 47% 時，實際上第一季的現金毛利率更像是 48%、48.2% 或某個數字。這是正確的看待方式嗎？

I'll be careful with the cash because there are other cash, non-cash related items; but in principle you're right, we're guiding to about 47%. And if you just look at the two elements, one being the amortization of intangibles, we said that's going to be about EUR40 million per year; but that's linear so it's about EUR10 million. And then we said there was EUR50 million that result from the revaluation of the inventory to a fair value or market value at the time of closing. We've got to work ourselves through this and as you can imagine, this is going to be a bit more skewed to the front of the year rather than the back of the year and therefore there is as you state a probably closer to 1.5% impact on the gross margin in Q1. Or in other words had we not done the acquisition and the deal with the purchase price allocation, we would have been north of 48% in the first quarter. But I wouldn't associate it with cash and non-cash because there's other stuff.

我會小心處理現金，因為還有其他現金和非現金相關物品；但原則上你是對的，我們的指導是 47% 左右。如果你只看這兩個要素，一個是無形資產的攤銷，我們說這將是每年約 4000 萬歐元；但這是線性的，所以約為 1000 萬歐元。然後我們說，有 5000 萬歐元是由於庫存在收盤時重新估價為公允價值或市場價值而產生的。我們必須自己努力解決這個問題，正如您所想像的，這將更加偏向年初而不是年末，因此正如您所說，這可能會對第一季的毛利率產生接近 1.5% 的影響。或者換句話說，如果我們沒有進行收購和購買價格分配交易，我們在第一季的收益將超過 48%。但我不會將其與現金和非現金聯繫起來，因為還有其他東西。

Farhan Ahmad.

法爾漢·艾哈邁德。

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse. I have a question related to EUV. What are some of the risk factors that you see going forward? Is there anything that you have to deliver for EUV to be adopted or should we take these orders as a sign that EUV is now at a point that we can count on its delivery in 2018? And also can you remind us again on what the lead time is for EUV going forward?

瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。我有一個與 EUV 相關的問題。您認為未來有哪些風險因素？為了讓 EUV 得到採用，你們需要交付什麼嗎？或者我們應該將這些訂單視為 EUV 現在已經到了我們可以指望它在 2018 年交付的階段的標誌？另外，您能否再次提醒我們 EUV 未來的交付週期是多少？

I think ultimately the proof of the pudding is when the customers give you an unconditional commitment to pay you a lot of money, which I think has happened. I think that decision, which most customers have been public about EUV, when they want to use it and how they want to use it, is following this up by orders. So, I think it is true. Somebody asked a question earlier is that what could happen to make 2018 a year where you're not going to fully ship your production capacity. I just answered one of the things is customer roadmaps might change, but what they're telling us today and we know the number of layers that they want to use EUV on that we have to use that capacity and only if a customer changes their minds that things will change, but that's not the case today. On lead time like I said, lead time 2016 was just (inaudible). We had a supply chain that we have to kick out of hibernation. They're now awake I can assure you so lead times will also compress somewhat also throughout 2017. I'd love to have a lead time by the end of the year of about 18 months.

我認為最終的證明是當客戶無條件地承諾支付給你一大筆錢時，我認為這已經發生了。我認為，大多數客戶已經公開了有關 EUV 的決定，包括他們何時想使用它以及如何使用它，並且正在透過訂單來跟進。所以，我認為這是真的。之前有人問過一個問題，什麼情況會導致 2018 年成為您無法完全交付生產能力的一年。我剛剛回答的一件事是，客戶路線圖可能會改變，但他們今天告訴我們的是，我們知道他們想要使用 EUV 的層數，我們必須使用該容量，只有當客戶改變主意時，事情才會改變，但今天情況並非如此。關於交貨時間，正如我所說，2016 年的交貨時間只是（聽不清楚）。我們必須喚醒處於休眠狀態的供應鏈。我可以向你保證，他們現在已經醒了，因此整個 2017 年的交貨時間也會有所壓縮。我希望到今年年底的交貨時間能達到約 18 個月。

And can you talk about how do you see the linearity of 2017? Some of your peers have indicated like there is a stronger first half relative to second half, is that something you see also? And related to the China 500,000 wafer starts, is any of it hitting this year or next year?

您能談談您如何看待 2017 年的線性嗎？您的一些同業表示，上半年的表現比下半年更加強勁，您也這麼認為嗎？關於中國 50 萬片晶圓的投產，今年或明年會實現嗎？

So on the linearity, it's too early to say. Generally we have lead times of about six months for our tools so customers probably gave us a very clear indication of the next six months, which looks very good. The rest of the year is a bit driven by expectations and so that's always a bit more uncertain to a certain extent. So, that might be the reason why some of our peers focus more on the first half. It's just visibility. On China 500,000 wafer starts next year, we don't see 500,000 wafer starts next year, it's too much. It will be there, but as I said earlier it's going to take a bit of time. With some of our customers, we've been talking about building new fabs now for two-and-a-half years. In that same timeframe, our logic customers built the fab and we're shipping tools while we're still talking about the others. So, this just has to kick into a different gear also because 500,000 wafer starts next year is absolutely not what we expect good business. Yes, we will expect shipments into new pedestals for our tools, into fab extensions, and perhaps a new fab; but nothing to the level that you just mentioned.

因此，關於線性，現在說還為時過早。一般來說，我們的工具的交付週期約為六個月，因此客戶可能會給我們一個非常明確的關於未來六個月的指示，這看起來非常好。今年剩餘的時間有點受預期驅動，因此在某種程度上總是有點不確定。所以，這可能是為什麼我們的一些同行更加關注上半年的原因。這只是可見性。關於中國明年將動工生產 50 萬片晶圓，我們預計明年不會有 50 萬片晶圓開工，太多了。它會在那裡，但正如我之前所說的，這需要一些時間。兩年半以來，我們一直在與一些客戶討論建造新晶圓廠的事情。在同一時間段內，我們的邏輯客戶建造了晶圓廠，我們正在運送工具，同時我們仍在討論其他事宜。因此，這也必須進入不同的階段，因為明年 50 萬片晶圓的投產絕對不是我們預期的好生意。是的，我們期望將產品運送到用於我們工具的新基座、晶圓廠擴建部分，甚至可能是新晶圓廠；但還沒有達到你剛才提到的水平。

Jagadish Iyer.

賈加迪什·艾耶爾。

Jagadish Iyer, Summit Redstone. First Peter, if you look at your immersion revenue systems, it has been pretty much stable through the last three years and in fact has trended up. So I just was wondering as EUV starts to progress, how should we think about the immersion system trajectory over the next 12 to 24 months? And then I have a follow-up.

賈加迪什·艾耶，峰會紅石。首先，彼得，如果你看一下你的沉浸式收入系統，你會發現它在過去三年中一直非常穩定，事實上呈上升趨勢。所以我只是想知道，隨著 EUV 開始進步，我們該如何看待未來 12 到 24 個月浸沒式系統的發展軌跡？然後我有一個後續問題。

The next 12 to 24 months I do believe that when you look at what is driving our customers business is this 10 nanometer logic and it's memory, that still needs those immersion systems. So, I think next 12 to 18 months I don't think you will see a lot of change. Although longer term when complexity of chip design increases, the number of layers will also go up. Now the increase of the incremental layers are very much the critical ones, which is going to be EUV and as EUV progresses in terms of maturity and productivity, also EUV will grow into the realm of leading edge Deep UV.

我相信，在接下來的 12 到 24 個月裡，推動我們客戶業務發展的是 10 奈米邏輯及其內存，而這仍然需要那些浸入式系統。所以，我認為在未來 12 到 18 個月內你不會看到太多變化。雖然從長遠來看隨著晶片設計的複雜度增加，層數也會增加。現在，增量層的增加非常關鍵，這將是 EUV，隨著 EUV 在成熟度和生產率方面的進步，EUV 也將發展成為前沿深紫外線領域。

But how you look at it, there's also I think clearly discussed at our Capital Markets Day, immersion and Deep UV will be with us forever and also means over the next 10 years or so it's going to be a very significant part of our business, for the next 12 to 18 months is going to be the majority part and the key part of our business given the fact that those nodes that they are being designed into are the nodes that we're currently using and ramping which is not an EUV node. 10 nanometer is an immersion node and the high-teens DRAM is an immersion node. So, that will be with us for the next 12 to 18 months.

但是你怎麼看待它，我認為在我們的資本市場日也明確討論過，浸沒式和深紫外線將永遠伴隨著我們，也意味著在未來 10 年左右，它將成為我們業務中非常重要的一部分，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，它將成為我們業務的絕大部分和關鍵部分，因為它們被設計成的那些節點是我們目前正在使用節點的絕大部分和關鍵的節點。10奈米是一個浸入式節點，而高十奈米DRAM也是一個浸入式節點。所以，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們都會一直保持這種狀態。

Okay. Then briefly so on the six EUV system orders that you got as a VPA, is it fair to conclude that you have met the 7 nanometer initial insertion specification with this key customer? Thanks.

好的。那麼簡單來說，您作為 VPA 獲得的六個 EUV 系統訂單，是否可以得出結論，您已經滿足了該關鍵客戶的 7 奈米初始插入規範？謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Andrew Gardiner.

安德魯加德納。

Andrew Gardiner, Barclays. Just one on your outlook for 2017. You've given fairly clear messaging around what you see on the logic space and on the memory space and of course services and options continue to grow. Just the statement around significant revenue from EUV for the first time. If I go back to the Capital Markets Day in late October, you seemed to be indicating at that point something on the order of sort of below EUR1 billion mark as a combination of rev rec at shipment as well as the deferred revenue coming through. Is that still a reasonable assumption given better visibility in how you see EUV trending for this year? And also within services and options for this year now that HMI is closed and you're in the integration process, what are your expectations for that business over the next couple of quarters? Thank you.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。關於 2017 年的展望，僅此一點。您已經相當清楚地表達了您在邏輯空間和記憶體空間中所看到的內容，當然服務和選項也在不斷增長。這只是首次關於 EUV 帶來可觀收入的聲明。如果我回顧 10 月下旬的資本市場日，您當時似乎指出，出貨時的收入和遞延收入的總和大約低於 10 億歐元。鑑於您對今年 EUV 趨勢的了解更加清楚，這仍然是一個合理的假設嗎？另外，由於今年的服務和選項業務已經關閉，並且您正處於整合過程中，您對未來幾季的服務和選項業務有何期望？謝謝。

EUV, what we said before continues to apply. We said we can ship a maximum of 13 tools, which is a 12 plus 1 carryover. Revenue recognition is now close to shipment with shipment for a majority and yes, there will be some catch-up revenue from last year where we shipped systems with no revenue recognition. So without tying it down too much, but I think the number will have a [1] in for sure and some of [1.2] is clearly within the realm of possibilities. Service and field options will continue to grow even if you start with excluding HMI, we grew 7%, 8% this year. And also based on some of Peter's comments on the upgrades, we think it will grow at least by that level, it could grow at 10% or so year-over-year.

EUV，我們之前所說的仍然適用。我們說過我們最多可以運送 13 件工具，也就是 12 件加上 1 件結轉工具。目前，收入確認已接近出貨量，大多數情況下，我們會在去年出貨但沒有收入確認的系統時，獲得一些追趕性收入。所以，雖然沒有太多的限制，但我認為這個數字中肯定會有 [1]，而 [1.2] 中的一些顯然也在可能性範圍內。即使從排除 HMI 開始，服務和現場選項仍將繼續成長，今年我們的成長幅度為 7% 至 8%。而且根據彼得對升級的一些評論，我們認為它至少會增長到那個水平，同比增長 10% 左右。

And then we have HMI, which are going in for like two months last year and we are not intending to break this out in the future. But you know from the standalone reporting that this should be somewhere in the EUR200 million zip code that is incremental. I think you will see us announcing new products during the year, but they will not lead to any significant revenue in the year. So EUV, field options and services, and HMI are all growth drivers and then you have the rest of the business that is stable and in some cases up a little bit. So like we said in our prior remarks, it should be a pretty good revenue year in 2017.

然後我們有 HMI，它去年已經推出兩個月了，我們不打算在未來突破這一點。但從獨立報告中可以知道，這應該在增量約 2 億歐元。我認為您會看到我們在今年發布新產品，但它們不會在今年帶來任何可觀的收入。因此，EUV、現場選項和服務以及 HMI 都是成長動力，而其餘業務則保持穩定，在某些情況下甚至略有上升。因此，正如我們之前所說，2017 年的收入應該會相當不錯。

Douglas Smith.

道格拉斯史密斯。

Doug Smith from Agency Partners. I was wondering can you break down the 18 EUV systems backlog into your foundry, memory, and IDM groups?

來自 Agency Partners 的 Doug Smith。我想知道您能否將 18 個 EUV 系統積壓分解到您的代工廠、內存和 IDM 組中？

Yes, we could, but we generally say we're not doing it because it will be very customer specific because you could easily say who is who and that's not what I want. But there are few memory orders in there and that's just less than a handful and the rest, most is logic and IDM.

是的，我們可以，但我們通常不會這樣做，因為這將非常針對客戶，因為你可以輕鬆地說出誰是誰，而這不是我想要的。但其中的記憶體訂單很少，只有不到一把，其餘大部分是邏輯和 IDM。

Okay. And just a clarification, were you saying that the six EUV orders in Q4 were all from one customer?

好的。需要澄清的是，您是說第四季的六個 EUV 訂單都來自同一個客戶嗎？

No. There were five from one customer, one was an addition.

不。其中有 5 個來自一位顧客，1 個是新增的。

Okay. So five from one customer?

好的。那麼一個顧客能帶來五種服務嗎？

One memory customer and one logic customer.

一個記憶體客戶和一個邏輯客戶。

Okay. And the one that was in this group of five was what you call the kind of quasi PPN?

好的。這五個人中的一個就是你所說的準 PPN 嗎？

I have to correct you, I think that it was all logic. Six were all logic, but with two customers; (inaudible).

我必須糾正你，我認為這完全是合乎邏輯的。六個都是邏輯，但有兩個客戶； （聽不清楚）。

On the 18 systems, we have said before that it's five customers in total not like only the (inaudible). It's five customers in total that have orders in with us.

關於這 18 個系統，我們之前說過，總共有 5 個客戶，而不僅僅是（聽不清楚）。總共有五位客戶向我們下訂單。

And it's the one that had the five which were I think that you called kind of a quasi PPN?

它是具有五個的那個，我認為你稱之為準 PPN？

Yes.

是的。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question. So if you are unable to get through, as always feel free to contact the Investor Relations department and we'll get back to you as soon as we possibly can to try to help. Now operator, if we can have the last caller, please.

女士們、先生們，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。因此，如果您無法接通，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門，我們將盡快與您聯繫並盡力提供協助。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

Robert Sanders.

羅伯特·桑德斯。

Just a question about the 3400. So the shipments that customers have ordered, are you going to upgrade the source to 250 watts at a later stage and is that a free upgrade? And then the second question would just be on the HMI business, it does seem to be tracking below expectations from June when you acquired it. I was just wondering what's the update there on the outlook and how that business is tracking? Thanks.

我只是想問一下 3400。那麼，對於客戶訂購的貨物，您是否打算在後期將電源升級到 250 瓦，這是免費升級嗎？第二個問題是關於 HMI 業務的，自從您六月收購該業務以來，其發展似乎確實低於預期。我只是想知道前景有什麼更新以及業務進展如何？謝謝。

On the 3400, there's no major source upgrades just cranking up the power and so that is not necessary the source is the source and we'll be capable of doing 250 watts or at least it's going to be above 205 watts whereas 250 watts doesn't really matter because 205 watts worth 125 wafers per hour and that's the throughput specification. But 250 watts by the way is also not with this particular source design is not our end target. I think with this particular design, we can go higher, we can go 300 watts and above. On HMI, below expectations.

在 3400 上，沒有進行重大的源升級，只是提高了功率，因此沒有必要，源就是源，我們將能夠做到 250 瓦，或者至少會高於 205 瓦，而 250 瓦並不重要，因為 205 瓦相當於每小時 125 個晶圓，這就是吞吐量規格。但順便說一下，250 瓦也不是這個特定光源設計的最終目標。我認為透過這種特殊的設計，我們可以達到更高的功率，可以達到 300 瓦甚至更高。在 HMI 方面，低於預期。

There is no significant difference in what we have seen already during our due diligence time and since this is a growing business, more importantly the roadmap going forward is well aligned not only within us and HMI more importantly also with the technology folks at the customers. So, we're looking forward to a significant opportunity like we said at our October call which could be up to a EUR1 billion by 2020.

在我們盡職調查期間，我們已經看到的情況沒有顯著差異，而且由於這是一項不斷發展的業務，更重要的是，未來的發展路線圖不僅在我們和 HMI 內部保持一致，更重要的是，也與客戶的技術人員保持一致。因此，我們期待一個重大機遇，就像我們在 10 月的電話會議上所說的那樣，到 2020 年，這一機會的價值可能達到 10 億歐元。

Rob, you have to remember that in 2017 we still have the majority of the HMI sales or you would call the standalone HMI sales. What we're really looking at is you may remember the presentation that we had at the time of the acquisition that the area where we believe we will have a significant growth opportunity is the combination of the holistic lithography or the computational lithography competencies of ASML with the HMI capabilities creating a new product. That is where we think there is going to be a big market and a big growth opportunity and that's not for 2017, it will be 2018 onwards.

羅布，你必須記住，2017 年我們仍然佔據 HMI 銷售額的大部分，或者你可以稱之為獨立 HMI 銷售額。我們真正關注的是，您可能還記得我們在收購時所做的演示，我們認為我們將擁有重大增長機會的領域是將 ASML 的整體光刻或計算光刻能力與 HMI 功能相結合以創造出新產品。我們認為那裡將會有一個巨大的市場和巨大的成長機會，而且這不只是在 2017 年，而是在 2018 年及以後。

Thank you, everybody. On behalf of ASML's Board of Management, we'd like to thank you for joining us in the call today. And operator, if we could have your formal conclusion to the call, we'd appreciate it. Thank you.

謝謝大家。我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝您今天的電話會議。接線員，如果我們能得到您對此通話的正式結論，我們將非常感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2016 fourth quarter and annual financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2016 年第四季和年度財務績效電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。