艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2016 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 20, 2016. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML introduction there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2016年4月20日ASML 2016年第一季財務業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML 介紹結束後將有機會提問。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from our headquarters here in Veldhoven, the Netherlands is ASML's CEO Peter Wennink, and our CFO Wolfgang Nickl. The subject of today's call is ASML's first quarter 2016 results.

謝謝您，接線生。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天，與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部前來的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink 和財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2016 年第一季的業績。

Just as a reminder, for this call and for subsequent calls the Q&A queue starts with the operator's instructions at the opening of the call and not before then, just FYI. And as mentioned, questions will be taken in the order that they are received.

提醒一下，對於本次通話以及後續通話，問答隊列將從通話開始時接線員的指示開始，而不是在此之前，僅供參考。正如所提到的，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

There's another reminder, the length of the call will be 60 minutes. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com, and a replay of the call will be available on our website.

再次提醒一下，通話時長為60分鐘。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 www.asml.com 上進行現場直播，會議重播也將在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the Federal Securities Laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's Annual Report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction. Peter?

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。彼得？

Thank you, Craig. Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2016 results conference call.

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝大家參加我們 2016 年第一季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter and provide you our view of the coming quarters.

在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對最近一個季度的情況做一個概述和評論，並向大家介紹我們對未來幾季的看法。

Wolfgang will start with a review of the first quarter financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current general business environment and on our future business outlook. Wolfgang?

沃夫岡將首先回顧第一季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論，然後我將對當前的整體商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些進一步的評論，以完成介紹。沃爾夫岡？

Thank you Peter and welcome everyone. For Q1, our net sales came in at EUR1.33 billion. This included system sales of EUR856 million, of which memory represented 42% with logic representing 58%. Service and field option sales came in at EUR477 million.

謝謝彼得，歡迎大家。第一季度，我們的淨銷售額達到 13.3 億歐元。其中包括 8.56 億歐元的系統銷售額，其中記憶體佔 42%，邏輯佔 58%。服務和現場選項銷售額達到 4.77 億歐元。

Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 42.6%, slightly above our guidance. R&D expenses came in at EUR275 million and SG&A expenses came in at EUR89 million, essentially as guided.

本季我們的毛利率為 42.6%，略高於我們的預期。研發費用為 2.75 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 0.89 億歐元，基本上符合預期。

Regarding the order book, Q1 system bookings came in at EUR835 million. As this level is 30% below our prior quarter bookings. I would guess that some listeners might find this confusing relative to our guidance, which includes a 30% increase in Q2 revenues.

就訂單而言，第一季系統訂單金額為 8.35 億歐元。因為這個水準比我們上一季的預訂量低了 30%。我想有些聽眾可能會覺得這與我們的預期相矛盾，我們的預期包括第二季營收成長 30%。

I'd like to remind you that we are not an order-driven company and that the order patterning varies from customer to customer. Therefore, our bookings are not always a real indication of our near-term business opportunity.

我想提醒您，我們不是訂單驅動的公司，訂單模式因客戶而異。因此，我們的預訂量並不總是能夠真實反映我們的近期商機。

However, you can clearly see that our Q1 bookings have changed the complexion of our backlog in a way that supports our Q2 guide of growing strength in logic and flattening in memory.

然而，您可以清楚地看到，我們第一季的訂單已經改變了積壓訂單的狀況，這支持了我們第二季度的邏輯強度增強和記憶體趨於平緩的指導。

I can also tell you that we expect strong logic bookings in Q2. Just as a further reference in this regard, I would like to draw your attention to our consolidated statement of operations found on slide 21 of our Q1 2016 results presentation, where you can see the lumpy nature of our bookings over the last five quarters as well.

我還可以告訴您，我們預計第二季的邏輯訂單量將非常強勁。作為這方面的進一步參考，我想提請您注意我們 2016 年第一季業績報告第 21 張投影片上的綜合經營報表，從中您可以看到過去五個季度我們的預訂量波動性。

Turning to the balance sheet, quarter-over-quarter, cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments came in at EUR3.14 billion. Our free cash flow for the quarter was negative EUR65 million. This was expected, since we received a significant amount of customer prepayments on orders received in Q4, where free cash flow totaled EUR864 million. We expect free cash flow to return to a more normal level in Q2.

談到資產負債表，與上一季相比，現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 31.4 億歐元。本季我們的自由現金流為負 6500 萬歐元。這是意料之中的，因為我們在第四季度收到了大量客戶訂單預付款，其中自由現金流總計 8.64 億歐元。我們預計第二季自由現金流將恢復到更正常的水平。

Year-to-date through April 3, we repurchased 2.7 million shares for EUR223 million as part of our newly announced EUR1.5 billion share buyback program for 2016 and 2017 combined.

截至 4 月 3 日，今年迄今我們已回購了 270 萬股股票，價值 2.23 億歐元，這是我們新宣布的 2016 年和 2017 年合計 15 億歐元股票回購計畫的一部分。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the second quarter of 2016. We expect Q2 total revenue of approximately EUR1.7 billion.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2016 年第二季的期望和指導。我們預計第二季總營收約為 17 億歐元。

Due to recent demand forecast increases, we now expect continued stable memory shipments for the rest of this calendar year. Memory shipments for the second half of the year should be roughly equal to shipments for the first half of the year.

由於最近需求預測的增加，我們預計今年剩餘時間內記憶體出貨量將繼續保持穩定。下半年的記憶體出貨量應該與上半年的出貨量大致相當。

Logic shipments in Q1 were primarily for the 28 nanometer node. We expect some level of continued capacity adds throughout the year at this node, but as mentioned last quarter, we expect a strong pickup of total logic shipments in Q2 in support of 10 nanometer production ramps.

第一季的邏輯出貨量主要為 28 奈米節點。我們預計該節點全年的產能將持續增加，但正如上個季度所提到的，我們預計第二季度邏輯晶片總出貨量將強勁增長，以支持 10 奈米產能的增長。

Our current view of combined logic indicates that the second half of the year will be greater than the first half of the year, the extent being determined by ultimate 10 nanometer ramp levels in 2016.

我們目前的綜合邏輯觀點表明，下半年的表現將高於上半年，具體程度取決於 2016 年最終的 10 奈米爬坡水平。

Last quarter, service and field option sales came in at EUR477 million and is anticipated to grow throughout the year. We continue to plan on a year-over-year increase of approximately 10% in 2016.

上個季度，服務和現場選項銷售額達到 4.77 億歐元，預計全年將成長。我們繼續計劃在 2016 年實現約 10% 的同比增長。

This part of our business' growth continues to be driven by strong demand for holistic lithography options, high value upgrades and a growing installed base.

我們這部分業務的成長持續受到對整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的強勁需求的推動。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to come in around 42%. Gross margin will be significantly influenced by revenue recognition of two EUV systems in the quarter. Our second quarter net sales guidance includes about EUR110 million for EUV.

預計第二季毛利率約為42%。本季兩套 EUV 系統的營收確認將對毛利率產生較大影響。我們第二季的淨銷售額預期包括約 1.1 億歐元的 EUV。

As previously stated, we can only recognize part of the system revenue but must recognize the full cost. This along with an initial low profitability on EUV will cause a negative impact of approximately 5 percentage points on the gross margin for Q2, which is included in our guidance.

如前所述，我們只能確認部分系統收入，但必須確認全部成本。再加上 EUV 最初的低獲利能力，將對第二季的毛利率造成約 5 個百分點的負面影響，這已包含在我們的預期中。

R&D expenses for the second quarter will be about EUR270 million and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR90 million, both roughly at the same levels as the previous quarter.

第二季的研發費用約為 2.7 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約為 9,000 萬歐元，均與上一季大致持平。

Peter will talk more about the status of our EUV program, but I would like to mention that we completed the shipment of one EUV system in Q1. This shipment will lead to revenue in 2017. We expect to ship one additional system in Q2.

Peter 將更多地談論我們的 EUV 計劃的狀態，但我想提一下，我們在第一季完成了一套 EUV 系統的出貨。這批貨物將在2017年帶來收入。我們預計在第二季將交付另外一套系統。

And finally, at our upcoming Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on April 29, shareholders will vote on our proposal to increase our dividend by 50% to a level of EUR1.05 per ordinary share. We fully expect that this proposal will be supported by our shareholders.

最後，在我們即將於 4 月 29 日召開的年度股東大會上，股東將對我們的提案進行投票，將股息提高 50%，至每股 1.05 歐元。我們完全相信該提案將得到股東的支持。

With that I'd like to turn the call back over to you Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給你，彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, our first quarter results were very much in line with expectations and our business is developing along the lines that we communicated over the last two quarters.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如沃爾夫岡所強調的，我們的第一季業績非常符合預期，我們的業務正在按照我們過去兩個季度所傳達的思路發展。

While Wolfgang gave a qualitative outlook for 2016, with combined memory appearing flattish, half over half, with combined logic up in H2 over H1, and with combined services up half over half as well, we do see trends and developments that we believe are worthwhile mentioning.

雖然 Wolfgang 對 2016 年做出了定性展望，即綜合內存看起來持平，一半超過一半，綜合邏輯在下半年比上半年有所增長，綜合服務也有一半超過一半的增長，但我們確實看到了值得一提的趨勢和發展。

First one, despite a difficult pricing environment in DRAM, our forecast has further strengthened a bit in support of a continued drive by our customers to keep shrinking cost, and specifically for low 20 nanometer, and sub 20 nanometer nodes. This has resulted in our current flattish half over half sales view for our combined memory business.

首先，儘管 DRAM 的定價環境很艱難，但我們的預測進一步加強，以支持客戶繼續努力降低成本，特別是對於 20 奈米以下和 20 奈米節點。這導致我們目前對合併後的記憶體業務的銷售預測持平於一半以上。

For 3D NAND, shipments continue to new fabs and to fabs preparing for 2D to 3D conversions. Of course, we are watching with interest the developments in the volume introduction of the cross-point architecture, as we will become quite litho-intensive in time versus the 3D NAND architecture.

對於 3D NAND，出貨繼續發送到新建晶圓廠和準備從 2D 轉換到 3D 的晶圓廠。當然，我們正饒有興趣地關注交叉點架構的批量引入進展，因為與 3D NAND 架構相比，我們最終將變得相當注重光刻。

Secondly, as mentioned in previous earnings calls and evidenced by our backlog, it is clear that our sales to our combined logic customers will become more important starting in the second quarter.

其次，正如先前的收益電話會議中所提到的以及我們的積壓訂單所證明的那樣，很明顯，從第二季度開始，我們對合併邏輯客戶的銷售將變得更加重要。

This will continue as we are expecting a continued increase in logic orders in the coming quarter, in support of initial 10 nanometer node ramps. And as a result, we now forecast the significant increase in combined system and service, and field option sales in Q2 to be at the level of EUR1.7 billion.

這一趨勢將會持續下去，因為我們預計下一季邏輯訂單將繼續增加，以支援最初的 10 奈米節點升級。因此，我們現在預測第二季綜合系統和服務以及現場選項銷售額將大幅成長至 17 億歐元。

Also of note in the first quarter, we saw shipments for 28-nanometer logic capacity additions continue. I would like to make an observation here regarding logic node ramp behavior.

值得注意的是，在第一季度，我們看到 28 奈米邏輯容量的出貨量持續增加。我想在這裡對邏輯節點斜坡行為進行觀察。

Looking at the ramp speed, size and length of the latest, most advanced nodes, it appears to us that the rollout pattern of such nodes is changing.

透過觀察最新、最先進的節點的爬坡速度、大小和長度，我們發現這類節點的推出模式正在改變。

Previously node transitions followed each other in a rather predictable pattern throughout our entire logic customer base, whereby new nodes ramp quickly, in turn ending the capacity ramp of the previous nodes concurrently.

以前，在我們整個邏輯客戶群中，節點轉換以相當可預測的模式相互跟隨，即新節點快速增加，進而同時結束先前節點的容量增加。

What we see today, effectively starting with the 28-nanometer node, is that the initial new node ramp is done by a very limited number of customers, but with greater intensity, meaning speed and initial size of the ramp.

我們今天看到的是，實際上從 28 奈米節點開始，最初的新節點爬坡是由非常有限數量的客戶完成的，但強度更大，這意味著爬坡的速度和初始規模。

Then the rest of the node ramp is executed over a prolonged period, whereby the rest of the logic customer base follows the initial customers in phases.

然後，其餘節點的爬坡將在較長時間內執行，其中其餘邏輯客戶群將分階段跟隨初始客戶。

Current evidence of this trend is the aforementioned continued shipments for [20]-nanometer logic capacity additions. This still continuing, more than four years after the initial introduction.

這一趨勢的當前證據就是前面提到的[20]奈米邏輯產能的持續增加。在首次推出四年多之後，這種情況仍在繼續。

In discussions with our logic customers, we see similar capacity expansion behavior over time for future nodes. With litho intensity rising significantly node by node, initial node transitions are lengthening two, three years with the aforementioned longer tail and of previous nodes.

在與我們的邏輯客戶的討論中，我們看到未來節點隨著時間的推移出現類似的容量擴展行為。隨著光刻強度逐個節點顯著上升，初始節點轉換將延長兩到三年，並且具有前面提到的更長的尾部和先前節點的尾部。

This will likely make shipment and order patterns for a specific node, as well as the ultimate wafer capacities less transparent over time. However, based on the inputs from industry analysts' forecasts of end-market developments, we believe that our long-term assumption of a 10% node on node reduction of the ultimate installed wafer capacity is still appropriate.

這可能會使特定節點的出貨和訂單模式以及最終晶圓容量隨著時間的推移變得不那麼透明。然而，根據產業分析師對終端市場發展的預測，我們認為，最終安裝的晶圓容量逐節點減少 10% 的長期假設仍然是合適的。

As you all know, this was one of the pillars underlying the simulation leading to our EUR10 billion sales target by 2020.

眾所周知，這是我們實現 2020 年 100 億歐元銷售目標的模擬支柱之一。

As for 10-nanometer node, its introduction is clearly progressing. The speed and initial size of this ramp can be explained by the value proposition provided by the significant shrink of these nodes versus the prior node.

至於10奈米節點，其引入顯然正在取得進展。這種上升的速度和初始規模可以透過這些節點相對於前一個節點的顯著收縮所提供的價值主張來解釋。

The ultimate spend levels for logic in 2016 will depend on, amongst other things, both the level of end demand and the rate at which our customers will be able to execute their ramps. This is why it is still a bit too early to predict the overall 2016 spend levels today.

2016 年邏輯的最終支出水準將取決於最終需求水準和顧客實現產能提升的速度等因素。這就是為什麼現在預測 2016 年的整體支出水準還為時過早。

For field options and services, we see continued strength in 2016 and this should show growth as previously estimated in the range of 10% over 2015. On the ASML product side, we continue to focus R&D spend on lithography products that are essential to the ramp of our current and advanced processes.

對於現場選項和服務，我們預計 2016 年將繼續保持強勁勢頭，並將如先前估計的那樣比 2015 年增長 10% 左右。在 ASML 產品方面，我們繼續將研發支出集中在對我們目前和先進製程的提升至關重要的光刻產品上。

In deep UV, addressing the growing litho challenges of complex and lithography-intense multi-pass patterning, our recently launched TWINSCAN NXT:1980 with significant improvements in all key performance metrics, has rapidly reached productivity of more than 4,000 wafers per day, demonstrating the maturity of our latest NXT platform.

在深紫外線領域，為了應對日益嚴峻的複雜且高光刻強度的多通道圖案化光刻挑戰，我們最近推出的 TWINSCAN NXT:1980 在所有關鍵性能指標上都有了顯著提升，已迅速達到每天超過 4,000 片晶圓的生產能力，展現了我們最新 NXT 平台的成熟度。

In holistic lithography, we started rolling out our YieldStar 350, Integrated Metrology System. YieldStar enables highly accurate metrology for subsequent analysis in ASML's holistic lithography software products, which allows customers to control leading edge production processes for increased yield.

在整體光刻領域，我們開始推出 YieldStar 350 整合計量系統。YieldStar 可在 ASML 的整體光刻軟體產品中實現高度精確的計量，以便進行後續分析，從而使客戶能夠控制前沿生產流程，從而提高產量。

Holistic lithography products are now extending into EUV processes with customers evaluating our EUV source mask optimization software for development of 7 nanometer and 5 nanometer logic technologies.

整體光刻產品現已擴展到 EUV 工藝，客戶正在評估我們的 EUV 源掩模優化軟體，以用於開發 7 奈米和 5 奈米邏輯技術。

In EUV, you are all aware that our continued focus has been on improving EUV stability, availability and productivity, the key performance metrics that drive new technology adoption. Expect no changes in this focus for the foreseeable future.

在 EUV 領域，大家知道，我們一直致力於提高 EUV 的穩定性、可用性和生產力，這是推動新技術採用的關鍵效能指標。預計在可預見的未來這一重點不會改變。

In the past three months, we again demonstrated improved productivity and availability, moving EUV towards manufacturing readiness. By way of example, we achieved productivity of more than 1,350 wafers per day in our factory on an NXE:3350, bringing us closer to our 1,500 wafer per day target for 2016.

在過去的三個月裡，我們再次展示了生產力和可用性的提高，使 EUV 走向了製造準備階段。舉例來說，我們工廠使用 NXE:3350 實現了每天生產超過 1,350 片晶圓的生產能力，讓我們更接近 2016 年每天生產 1,500 片晶圓的目標。

Separately, three customers showed availability of more than 80% on average for four weeks on the NXE:3300s. In addition, industry-leading customers presented an abundance of EUV results at the SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference this past quarter that reinforce the need for EUV and demonstrated real and significant progress in key two performance areas, making increased customer confidence in EUV for manufacturing insertion apparent.

另外，三位客戶的 NXE:3300s 四周內平均可用性超過 80%。此外，業界領先的客戶在上個季度的 SPIE 先進光刻會議上展示了大量 EUV 成果，這些成果強化了對 EUV 的需求，並展示了在兩個關鍵性能領域的真正重大進展，明顯增強了客戶對 EUV 用於製造插入的信心。

ASML's commitment remains to do everything within our capability and power to bring EUV to manufacturing readiness.

ASML 的承諾仍然是盡我們所能，讓 EUV 達到製造水準。

Now, with that, we would be happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A. But beforehand, as I always do, I would like to kindly ask you to limit yourself to one question and one short follow-up if necessary. And, of course, this will allow us to get as many callers on to the call or questions on the call as possible.

謝謝你，彼得。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。但在此之前，正如我一貫的做法，我懇請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，如有必要，請您只提出一個簡短的後續問題。當然，這將使我們能夠讓盡可能多的來電者接聽電話或在電話中提問。

Now, operator, could we have your instructions and then the first question please?

現在，接線員，您可以給我們一些指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Francois Meunier, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的 Francois Meunier。

Yes, I think you're making some comments about customers making improvement in terms of availability, which is the key metric for EUV this year. I was wondering is there anyone making, you know, like a pure DRAM maker in those three customers improving the availability?

是的，我認為您對客戶在可用性方面的進步發表了一些評論，這是今年 EUV 的關鍵指標。我想知道這三個客戶中是否有純 DRAM 製造商正在提高可用性？

There is not a pure memory maker, these are customers that are either doing both memory and logic, or they are focused on logic.

沒有純粹的記憶體製造商，這些客戶要么同時做記憶體和邏輯，要么專注於邏輯。

So actually when in the video, you talk about your customers ramping EUV from the end of 2018 in terms of production up to 2020, it is for logic and memory, not just for logic?

那麼實際上，在影片中，您談到您的客戶從 2018 年底到 2020 年加大 EUV 的生產力度，這是為了邏輯和內存，而不僅僅是為了邏輯？

Correct.

正確的。

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

My first question is on EUV. There was good progress demonstrated at the SPIE Conference and all the companies appear to be working on it.

我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 的。SPIE 會議上展示了良好的進展，所有公司似乎都在為此努力。

In terms of the work that you're doing with your customers, can you talk about how many layers of adoption do you expect at the 7-nanometer node and also on memory? How should we think about the number of layers progressing for different nodes?

就您與客戶開展的工作而言，您能否談談您預計在 7 奈米節點和記憶體方面會有多少層採用？我們該如何考慮不同節點進展的層數？

The most relevant information in that sense we have on the node that's upcoming first, and that's a 7-nanometer node. The 7-nanometer nodes for logic, that is the 7-nanometer node, not the 7-nanometer node that you need to look at in conjunction with 10, so that is what we call 7 or 5, that can be anywhere between 8 and 12 layers. It depends on the customer.

從這個意義上講，我們掌握的最相關的資訊是關於即將推出的節點，即 7 奈米節點。用於邏輯的 7 奈米節點，即 7 奈米節點，而不是需要與 10 結合查看的 7 奈米節點，所以這就是我們所說的 7 或 5，可以在 8 層到 12 層之間的任何位置。這取決於客戶。

And then the second question I have is in terms of your memory shipments. Previously, if I remember correctly, you had indicated that first half shipments would be roughly flat from second half of last year.

我的第二個問題是關於你們的記憶體出貨量。之前，沒記錯的話，您曾表示上半年的出貨量將與去年下半年基本持平。

If I take your first quarter shipment level and I assume that second quarter is flat, maybe down a little bit, it appears the first half of the year is down about 20% from second half of last year and then it's going to remain at about that level for rest of the year.

如果我以第一季的出貨量水準為例，假設第二季持平，甚至可能略有下降，那麼今年上半年的出貨量似乎比去年下半年下降了約 20%，並且在今年剩餘時間內將保持在這個水準上。

Is that a reasonable assumption on how I'm looking at the memory shipments, and also if you could clarify if there were any pushouts on the memory that led to the somewhat change in the linearity?

這是我查看記憶體出貨量的合理假設嗎？另外，您是否可以澄清一下，內存中是否存在任何推出，導致線性度發生一定變化？

Farhan, it's Wolfgang here. You are correct, the first half is going to be a little bit lower than the second half of last year, but then the second half of this year is higher than we originally expected. So, overall, there's always like a push and pull, but overall, it's actually slightly higher than we thought about last call and also on the call before that.

法爾漢，我是沃夫岡。您說得對，今年上半年的業績會比去年下半年略低，但下半年的業績會高於我們最初的預期。因此，總體而言，總是存在著推拉的情況，但總體而言，它實際上比我們上次通話時以及之前的通話中所考慮的要略高一些。

Mehdi Hosseini.

梅赫迪·胡賽尼。

Peter, can you please remind us when we are going to learn more about the 3350s that are being installed at the customer site and what do we need to see or track for milestone, to better assess the timing of EUV insertion for 7-nanometer logic? And I have a follow-up.

彼得，您能否提醒我們什麼時候可以了解更多有關在客戶現場安裝的 3350 的信息，以及我們需要查看或跟踪哪些里程碑，以便更好地評估 EUV 插入 7 奈米邏輯的時間？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. The 3350s, we started shipping 3350s two in the fourth quarter of last year, one in this quarter. It takes about six months to install and to qualify the processor.

是的。3350，我們從去年第四季開始出貨兩台，本季出貨一台。安裝和驗證處理器大約需要六個月的時間。

So far in this quarter, the second quarter, you will see the first tools released, which actually drives the partial revenue recognition that we just guided.

到目前為止，在本季度，也就是第二季度，您將看到第一批工具的發布，這實際上推動了我們剛剛指導的部分收入確認。

So when that is done, then customers start preparing their integration wafers and then basically running them in what we call marathon tests of sometimes months, sometimes quarters. We've actually done some marathon tests with one of our customers on the 3300, by the way, which involved 13 weeks, so that's one quarter.

因此，當完成後，客戶就開始準備他們的整合晶圓，然後基本上進行我們所說的馬拉松測試，有時持續數月，有時持續數個季度。順便說一下，我們實際上已經與我們的一位客戶對 3300 進行了一些馬拉松測試，歷時 13 週，也就是一個季度。

Now, this will then start in Q2, so somewhere in Q3 we will see the first results. And the results will be focusing on the metrics that we just talked about. It's productivity, availability; that's what they will be looking at.

現在，這將在第二季開始，因此我們將在第三季的某個時候看到第一批結果。結果將集中在我們剛才討論的指標。它是生產力、可用性；這就是他們所要關注的。

And we expect that customers will repeat what we have seen in our own factory, simply because we have the 3350 there since the second half of last year. We've done internal tests also.

我們期望客戶能夠重複我們在自己工廠看到的情況，因為我們從去年下半年就開始在那裡生產 3350 型機器。我們也做過內部測試。

So what you need do track is really data coming out of the customers and we will support you also with that by the time those marathon tests have been run at the customers, then we will give you the data. (multiple speakers)

因此，您需要追蹤的實際上是來自客戶的數據，當這些馬拉松測試在客戶那裡進行時，我們也會為您提供支持，然後我們會向您提供數據。（多位發言者）

And having the 1,500 throughput target?

吞吐量目標為 1,500 嗎？

Yes. I think that's the throughput target that we want to see in a marathon test, and at least to see the capability of that tool. Marathon tests for a customer could be focusing at different productivity levels, but we would like to see in the installed base the capability [shown] several times that we can do 1,500 wafers per day by the end of the year.

是的。我認為這是我們希望在馬拉松測試中看到的吞吐量目標，至少可以看到該工具的能力。為客戶進行的馬拉松測試可能側重於不同的生產力水平，但我們希望在安裝基礎上看到數倍於此的產能，即到今年年底我們每天可以生產 1,500 片晶圓。

Don't forget that customers don't run 1,500 wafers per day at the current level of the N7 rollout. I mean, they don't have 1,500 wafers per day for 13 weeks. So it's the capability that we need to show on a regular basis, plus the agreed upon results out of marathon tests regarding availability and productivity.

不要忘記，在目前的 N7 推出水準下，客戶每天不會運行 1,500 個晶圓。我的意思是，他們不可能連續 13 週每天生產 1,500 片晶圓。因此，我們需要定期展示這種能力，並結合馬拉松測試中關於可用性和生產力的一致結果。

And just one clarification for Wolfgang. I think in your prepared remarks you said logic bookings will be up in Q2, but you didn't mention in memory. Were you referring to booking, and if so, any qualitative assessment on memory booking into Q2?

我只想向沃夫岡澄清一點。我認為您在準備好的發言中說過邏輯預訂量將在第二季度上升，但您沒有在記憶中提到。您指的是預訂嗎？如果是，那麼對 Q2 中的記憶預訂有任何定性評估嗎？

Yes, if you look at our total backlog, you see about a quarter is in memory. On a total of [EUR3 billion] that makes like [EUR750 million] and with what we shipped already and with our expectations with two equal halves, we will get some more bookings.

是的，如果你看一下我們的總積壓量，你會發現大約四分之一是在記憶體中。總計 [30 億歐元] 相當於 [7.5 億歐元]，加上我們已經發貨的貨物以及我們對兩半的預期，我們將獲得更多的訂單。

So there will be memory bookings in Q2 as well, but you will see again the bookings weight towards logic, because the 10 nanometer ramp is continuing strongly in Q3. So you'll see both there. But overall, you will see strong bookings for the second quarter maybe.

因此，第二季也會有記憶體預訂，但您會再次看到預訂權重向邏輯傾斜，因為 10 奈米技術的成長在第三季繼續強勁進行。所以你會在那裡看到兩者。但總體而言，您可能會看到第二季的預訂量強勁。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提摩西·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

I had two. I guess, first of all, Wolfgang I had a question about the customer co-investment program. And what happens when the program ends at the end of next year and sort of how to think about your development burden? Does the overall R&D spend decline after the end of next year or does your portion of that burden go up?

我有兩個。我想，首先，沃夫岡，我有一個關於客戶共同投資計畫的問題。當該計劃於明年年底結束時會發生什麼？您該如何考慮開發負擔？明年年底後，整體研發支出是否會下降，或者您承擔的份額會上升？

Yes, first of all, yes, the CCIP is about EUR1.4 billion over five years, and those contributions will end. As you may recall, there is a portion of that recorded through the gross margin, there is a portion in other income and there's actually a portion that goes straight to the balance sheet.

是的，首先，是的，CCIP 在五年內的投入約為 14 億歐元，這些投入將會結束。您可能還記得，其中一部分是透過毛利率記錄，一部分計入其他收入，實際上還有一部分直接進入資產負債表。

So [non-operated] actually is recorded in R&D. Your expectation should be that we're currently running at the [EUR1.1 billion] level, we're pretty stable on that and I would expect that it stays at that level as we continue to invest in EUV, but then also on what prolongs EUV [INA], holistic lithography.

因此，[未營運]實際上記錄在研發中。您的預期應該是，我們目前的營運水準為 [11 億歐元]，我們在這方面相當穩定，我預計，隨著我們繼續投資 EUV，它將保持在這個水平，但同時也會延長 EUV [INA]，即整體光刻技術。

So, for planning purposes I would just keep it at that level and just to be safe, in our EUR10 billion model by 2020, we have modeled 13% that would give us some room to grow and invest here, but for now, I would just keep it flattish at the [EUR1.1 billion], Tim.

因此，出於規劃目的，我會將其保持在該水平，並且為了安全起見，在我們到 2020 年實現 100 億歐元的模型中，我們模擬了 13% 的增長速度，這將為我們提供一些增長和投資空間，但就目前而言，我會將其保持穩定在 [11 億歐元]，蒂姆。

But even though you are being reimbursed through other means, if the development spending isn't going to change if you're not getting reimbursed any more, then your burden basically goes up. Is that right?

但即使你透過其他方式獲得報銷，如果開發支出不會改變，而你不再獲得報銷，那麼你的負擔基本上就會增加。是嗎？

That's right. I mean, we get co-investment and for that co-investment we meet our co-investors, also shareholders, and when that period is over, of the co-investment payments we're getting in, we have to decide by ourselves whether we keep the investment levels and we look at our future business plan and feel it's justified to keep it at that level.

這是正確的。我的意思是，我們獲得共同投資，並且對於該共同投資，我們會見我們的共同投資者，也是股東，當該期限結束時，對於我們獲得的共同投資付款，我們必須自己決定是否保持投資水平，我們會考慮我們未來的商業計劃，並認為將其保持在該水平是合理的。

And don't forget, Tim, that the co-investment program was designed to be kind of a bridge R&D support until we started shipping EUV. By 2018, you will see the ramp of EUV starting, which also has an impact on the topline and will have an impact on the gross margin. So by that time, we should be able to stand on our own feet.

提姆，別忘了，聯合投資計畫旨在成為橋樑研發支持，直到我們開始運送 EUV。到 2018 年，您將看到 EUV 開始普及，這也會對營業收入和毛利率產生影響。所以到那時，我們就應該能夠自立了。

And then as my second question, do you still plan to ship six to seven EUV systems this year? I think you said six to seven, is that still the plan for the full year? Thanks.

然後我的第二個問題是，您今年是否仍計劃出貨六到七套 EUV 系統？我想您說的是六到七年，這還是全年的計劃嗎？謝謝。

Yes. That is still the plan.

是的。這仍然是計劃。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

My first question is on the short term. I mean, you are talking about this flattish memory trend into the second half, which is not what you were saying earlier. Clearly things look better than before, Wolfgang.

我的第一個問題是關於短期的。我的意思是，您談論的是下半年記憶體趨勢趨於平穩，這與您之前所說的並不是一樣。顯然情況比以前好多了，沃夫岡。

So can you talk about where you are seeing these positive trends in the memory market into the second half of the year, given the difficult memory environment at this point? And I have a few small follow-up.

那麼，考慮到目前困難的記憶體環境，您能否談談您如何看待下半年記憶體市場的正面趨勢？我還有一些小的後續事宜。

I'll start and I'll let Peter chime in. But, first of all, it is not one customer. I mean, we see forecast at multiple customers. It's also supporting like in DRAM, the new nodes, 80-nanometer nodes to start initial production on that.

我先開始，然後讓彼得加入。但首先，它不是一個客戶。我的意思是，我們看到了多個客戶的預測。它還支援 DRAM 等新節點、80 奈米節點的初始生產。

And then we also see in NAND, continued investments in China with new 3D factories in Singapore and in Japan. So it's not one customer, it's pretty much every customer. It's not like we see overall the same memory levels that we have last year.

我們也看到，在 NAND 領域，中國繼續進行投資，在新加坡和日本建立了新的 3D 工廠。所以這不是一個客戶，而是幾乎每個客戶。我們看到的整體記憶水平與去年並不相同。

So, memory overall will still be down quite a bit year-over-year, but it came out a little bit better than we expected versus the last two calls.

因此，總體而言，內存仍將同比下降很多，但與前兩次通話相比，結果比我們預期的要好一些。

Following on from that, when you look at the third quarter, when you talked to us in January and you had indicated EUR1.3 billion in the first quarter, you had indicated that you would see this significant ramp of revenues into the second quarter.

接下來，當您回顧第三季時，當您在一月份與我們交談時，您曾表示第一季的收入為 13 億歐元，您曾表示您會看到第二季的收入大幅成長。

How do you see the third quarter and fourth quarter developing at this point in terms of revenue, from the second quarter levels?

就收入而言，您認為第三季和第四季相對於第二季的水平會如何發展？

You got to just add up the bits and pieces. I mean in logic, we were pretty clear, in both mine and Peter's remarks, logic will be higher in the second half than in the first half.

你只需要把這些零碎的東西加起來即可。我的意思是，從邏輯上講，我們非常清楚，無論是在我還是彼得的言論中，下半場的邏輯性都會比上半場更高。

The ramp is not a one quarter affair. Q3 is pretty strong, Q4 it remains to be seen just how our customers tape out with their customers and what the yields are and so forth. Memory is stable.

斜坡不只是四分之一的事。第三季表現相當強勁，但第四季仍有待觀察我們的客戶如何與他們的客戶達成協議以及收益率是多少等等。記憶穩定。

And then you see field options and services, which I haven't talked about that yet. We had a modest start into the year, but every quarter now should be better than the prior quarter and that will lead us to a 10% increase also year-over-year. So it's also quite a bit better in the second half than the first half.

然後你會看到現場選項和服務，我還沒有談論過這個。我們今年的開局表現平平，但現在每季的表現都應該比上一季更好，這將使我們的業績年增 10%。因此下半場的表現也比上半場好很多。

So it's relatively safe to assume that the second half is going to be stronger than the first half of the year.

因此，可以相對安全地假設下半年的表現將強於上半年。

Now, as you know, we guide only if we've clarity and certainty. And you also know one of these systems is [EUR50 million] and it can go left or right in a quarter, so that's why we rather not do a quantitative guide right now. But we are looking pretty good for the year and now also for Q3.

現在，如您所知，只有在清晰和確定的情況下我們才能提供指導。而且您也知道其中一個系統是 [5000 萬歐元]，它可以在一個季度內向左或向右，所以這就是為什麼我們現在不願意做定量指導。但我們對於今年以及第三季的前景都看好。

Jagadish Iyer.

賈加迪什·艾爾。

Two questions, Peter. First, one of the things if I look at it, why did your services revenue go down disproportionately when your immersion sales went up quarter-over-quarter in the first -- in Q1?

有兩個問題，彼得。首先，如果我看一下，為什麼在第一季度，你們的沉浸式銷售額環比成長，而你們的服務收入卻不成比例地下降？

Yes. I can take this. This is Wolfgang. A little bit -- something that we got to consider over time. We actually call this field option and services that [477] bundle.

是的。我可以接受這個。這是沃夫岡。有一點——這是我們隨著時間的推移必須考慮的事情。我們實際上將此欄位稱為[477]捆綁選項和服務。

What you see is that -- and we got to quite frankly consider in the future whether we report on this slightly different. The service portion, which is dependent on certain projects like relocations, but mainly on the installed base is a relatively stable slowly growing number.

您所看到的是——我們必須坦率地考慮未來是否對此做出略有不同的報道。服務部分依賴某些項目，例如搬遷，但主要依賴已安裝的基礎，是一個相對穩定、緩慢增長的數字。

What brings the volatility into the combined installed base-related revenue are the field options and services, and those include everything from a software option to very, very complex SNEP upgrades that can go into the [EUR20 million] or so, even higher than that.

為合併安裝基數相關收入帶來波動的是現場選項和服務，這些包括從軟體選項到非常非常複雜的 SNEP 升級的所有內容，這些選項的成本可能達到 [2000 萬歐元] 左右，甚至更高。

And those vary quarter-by-quarter. You have seen the exact same thing last year, by the way. Our Q1 in last year was also -- it was just a tad over [EUR400 million], we were up 20% year-over-year.

而且這些數字每季都會有所不同。順便說一句，去年您也看到同樣的事情。我們去年第一季的營收也略高於 [4 億歐元]，年增 20%。

So the service portion is pretty stable. And then the options -- the field options is the one that brings a little bit volatility in it. But in summary, we look at our forecasts and we are very confident that we grow the number year-over-year by about 10% or so.

所以服務部分相當穩定。然後是選項——現場選項會帶來一點波動。但總而言之，根據我們的預測，我們非常有信心我們的數字將年增約 10％ 左右。

This is a follow-up question. Given how your gross margin is going to be impacted because of the two EUV tools in Q2, and if bulk of the EUV revenue recognition happens next year, what kind of gross margin levels should we be thinking about broadly, as we look at in terms of your partial revenue recognition of the six or seven tools that you shipped this year? Thank you.

這是一個後續問題。考慮到你們的毛利率將因第二季度的兩款 EUV 工具而受到影響，並且如果大部分 EUV 收入確認發生在明年，那麼從你們今年發貨的六到七款工具的部分收入確認來看，我們應該大致考慮什麼樣的毛利率水平？謝謝。

First of all, I mean, the Q2 dilutive effect from EUV are probably the only dilution effect on gross margin that I like, because it means we're actually shipping the products and the customers are accepting the products.

首先，我的意思是，EUV 帶來的第二季稀釋效應可能是我喜歡的唯一對毛利率的稀釋效應，因為這意味著我們實際上正在運送產品並且客戶正在接受產品。

And you're right, I mean, the consequence of what we said is if we have quarters now where we have partial revenue and full cost, we will have in the future quarters where we have partial revenue and no cost. So, it will be accretive to a level in a future quarter.

你說得對，我的意思是，我們所說的結果是，如果我們現在的幾個季度有部分收入和全部成本，那麼在未來的幾個季度中，我們也會有部分收入而沒有成本。因此，它將在未來一個季度內增至一定水準。

It's very difficult for us, because it depends on various things and it varies customer by customer. It's very difficult for us to pinpoint that and therefore would rather don't give you numbers, but directionally, it will be accretive in the future, of course.

這對我們來說非常困難，因為它取決於各種因素，並且因客戶而異。我們很難準確地指出這一點，因此寧願不給你具體數字，但從方向上看，它在未來當然會不斷增長。

(Inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

CJ Muse with Evercore ISI. I guess first question, now that you have pretty decent visibility into the 10-nanometer ramp, curious how you're thinking about litho intensity relative to [2016, 2014]?

CJ Muse 與 Evercore ISI。我想第一個問題是，既然您對 10 奈米技術的發展已經有了相當清晰的了解，那麼好奇您如何看待相對於 [2016 年、2014 年] 的光刻強度？

Yes, I think 10-nanometer, looking at [10-nanometer] versus 2016 we think about -- anywhere between 30% and 40% litho intensity. So take an average of 35%.

是的，我認為 10 奈米，對比 2016 年，我們認為 10 奈米的光刻強度在 30% 到 40% 之間。因此取平均值為 35%。

And I guess as a follow-up here, it sounds like not only a 10-nanometer ramp, but also a nice follow through of [2016, 2014] spend. And if we -- I believe, exited last year with about 250,000 wafer starts, of equipment shipped, plus what you're expecting here, as well as the EDA guys talking about tape-outs of [250, 300] to date.

我想作為後續行動，這聽起來不僅像是 10 奈米的提升，而且也是 [2016 年、2014 年] 支出的良好後續。如果我們 — — 我相信，去年我們大約有 250,000 個晶圓啟動，設備發貨量，加上你所期望的，以及 EDA 人員談論的迄今為止 [250,300] 個流片量。

I'm curious that down 10% node to node that you are talking about, is that something that you actually see in [2016, 2014] or does that start at 10, in your view, given the robust tape-outs to date at the [16, 14] level?

我很好奇，您所說的節點間下降 10%，這是您在 [2016, 2014] 年實際看到的嗎？還是說，考慮到迄今為止 [16, 14] 級別的強勁流片，您認為從 10 開始下降？

Well, you actually start in our simulation, in our estimates, it starts at 2016. But like I said in the early comments that we made is that as of 28-nanometer, we see this pattern of this prolonged node in our -- 24% of our system sales in the first quarter was 28-nanometer, which is of course more than four years after its initial introduction is a significant amount of units going to a relatively mature node.

嗯，實際上，根據我們的模擬，根據我們的估計，它從 2016 年開始。但就像我在早期評論中所說的那樣，截至 28 奈米，我們看到了這種延長節點的模式——第一季我們系統銷售額的 24% 是 28 奈米，當然，這距離它首次推出已經過去了四年多，大量的單位進入了相對成熟的節點。

When we look at the comments customer currently make about the 20 and the 60-nanometer node intensity rising, we expect the same thing. When we look at a 10-nanometer node, we see the initial ramp being relatively speedy by only a very few customers and that also means that when we talk to the other logic customers, they have plans of going to 10-nanometer is a couple of years down the road. So, the same pattern that we've seen at 28 is going to repeat itself.

當我們看到客戶目前對 20 和 60 奈米節點強度上升的評論時，我們期待同樣的事情。當我們觀察 10 奈米節點時，我們發現只有極少數客戶的初始提升相對較快，這也意味著，當我們與其他邏輯客戶交談時，他們計劃在幾年後轉向 10 奈米。所以，我們在 28 歲時看到的相同模式將會重演。

Now when we look at the industry analyst reports and we take couple of analyst reports of -- and you know the analyst firms, Gartner (inaudible) Research and those. And we look at what their current expectation is of the end markets that we currently know, and it's all the products that we currently know, like PCs and the tablets and the servers, and the automotive, and there's nothing new in there, like IoT, because nobody knows what that is.

現在，當我們查看行業分析師報告時，我們會獲取幾份分析師報告——您知道分析公司，Gartner（聽不清楚）研究等。我們會看看他們目前對我們已知的終端市場的期望，這些是我們目前所知的所有產品，例如個人電腦、平板電腦、伺服器和汽車，其中並沒有什麼新東西，例如物聯網，因為沒有人知道那是什麼。

So let's take what we know and we look at the conservative estimates and the changed estimates based on the most current insight [in terms of] the PC market, we can calculate the number of bits, or the bit growth going forward.

因此，讓我們根據已知的信息，並根據對 PC 市場的最新了解，查看保守估計和變化後的估計，我們可以計算出未來的位數或位數增長。

And the bit growth we can then translate, looking at the roadmap of our customers into square inches wafers that need to be processed. We add it all up and we look at the forecast, we just come to a number that is for those nodes, is about a 10% node on node, no reduction. It's based on what we currently know and it's based on what we currently see, it's based on what customers tell us, which is corroborated by the analyst firms.

然後，我們可以根據客戶的路線圖將位元成長轉換為需要處理的平方英吋晶圓。我們把所有這些加起來，然後看一下預測，我們得到一個數字，這個數字對於這些節點來說，大約是節點對節點的 10%，沒有減少。它是基於我們目前所知道的、基於我們目前所看到的、基於客戶告訴我們的，並得到了分析公司的證實。

And that is actually what we've used to calculate our EUR10 billion by 2020 number. And this is how we do it and everything that we currently see points into that direction, that 10% node on node capacity reduction, but the nodes will be extended. That's going to be the message.

這其實就是我們用來計算 2020 年 100 億歐元目標的依據。這就是我們的做法，我們目前看到的一切都指向這個方向，即節點容量減少 10%，但節點將會擴展。這就是要傳達的訊息。

Kai Korschelt, Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的 Kai Korschelt。

My first question was just on the EUV revenue recognition. So it's clear that I think you?ve taken the full cost, only half the revenue, and I think you also mentioned that certainly the EUV tool is shipping in Q1, you don't expect it to generate any revenues in this year.

我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 收入確認。所以很明顯，我認為你已經承擔了全部成本，只收取了一半的收入，而且我認為你也提到了 EUV 工具肯定會在第一季出貨，你不認為它會在今年產生任何收入。

So I'm just wondering how should we think about the balance of this year in terms of revenues, and then also looking into 2017, because I think by then you probably would have built up a backlog of, I guess, six or seven EUV tools for which you may have recognized half, possibly less, in a gross margin dilutive fashion. So I'm just wondering how should we think about from a phasing perspective about that.

所以我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮今年的收入平衡，然後展望 2017 年，因為我認為到那時你可能已經積累了六到七個 EUV 工具的積壓訂單，而你可能已經以稀釋毛利率的方式確認了其中的一半，甚至更少。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何從分階段的角度來考慮這個問題。

I will go into that Kai. First of all, we shipped one system in Q1. We are planning to ship one in Q2, that leaves four to five in Q3, Q4.

我將進入那個凱。首先，我們在第一季交付了一套系統。我們計劃在第二季出貨一輛，第三季和第四季將出貨四到五輛。

If you recall, some of these systems are actually the 3300 that customers have already paid for, some of -- they are getting some enhancements, those will lead to quicker revenues. So you can expect some revenue there in the second half.

如果你還記得的話，其中一些系統實際上是客戶已經支付的 3300，其中一些 - 它們正在獲得一些增強，這些將帶來更快的收入。因此你可以預期下半年會有一些收入。

And then, we are also making progress on the maturity of the products and the predictability of the installation process. And you see, for instance, we said on these two systems, the 110, we previously said mid-year, and now we're saying it's in Q2.

然後，我們也在產品的成熟度和安裝過程的可預測性方面取得進展。例如，您會看到，我們在這兩個系統上說過，110，我們之前說的是年中，現在我們說是在第二季。

So you see we are making some progress, which also makes it easier for us to recognize revenue. I won't give you a number here, but the additional units that we are shipping, plus some of the performance milestones on the revenue that we already recognize that we may achieve this year will certainly lead to more EUV revenue this year.

所以你看我們正在取得一些進展，這也使我們更容易確認收入。我不會在這裡給你一個數字，但我們出貨的額外單位，加上我們已經認識到今年可能實現的一些收入績效里程碑，肯定會為今年帶來更多的 EUV 收入。

And next year, you are right, there is going to be a carryover amount. I mean, we're shipping certain shipments that have no revenue this year, they'll have it next year.

明年，您說得對，將會有結轉金額。我的意思是，我們運送的某些貨物今年沒有收入，但明年就會有收入。

Plus then, as Peter mentioned before, we are ready to do like a system layer on top of that per month, that will be a bit back-end loaded from a shipment perspective. But if you go to a 7 nanometer insertion, or 7 nanometer equivalent, and we talked early about DRAM going to be around the same time, when you look at order lead times, people will have to take delivery starting end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.

另外，正如 Peter 之前提到的，我們準備每月在此基礎上做一個系統層，從發貨的角度來看，這將是一個後端加載。但如果你採用 7 奈米插入或 7 奈米等效技術，並且我們早些時候談到 DRAM 將會在同一時間左右，當你查看訂單交貨時間時，人們將不得不在 2017 年底和 2018 年初開始交貨。

So, yes, you'll have a carryover, it's hard to tell you what that number is. Plus we are going to ship more systems next year. So the revenue will be -- plus the predictability of the installation will go up, which in general means you can recognize earlier, so the EUV revenue should be quite a bit up next year versus this year.

所以，是的，你會有結轉，很難告訴你這個數字是多少。此外，我們明年還將推出更多系統。因此收入將會 - 加上安裝的可預測性將會上升，這通常意味著你可以更早地認識到，所以明年的 EUV 收入應該會比今年有大幅成長。

I think, I can't help you any further in that sense, only to mention that that 2016 and 2017 will be complex in terms of revenue recognition, and that's unfortunately what it is, this is very strict accounting rules for new technology, we have to follow them.

我想，從這個意義上來說我無法再給你任何幫助，我只想說，2016 年和 2017 年的收入確認將會很複雜，不幸的是，對於新技術來說，這是非常嚴格的會計規則，我們必須遵守。

And on top of that the first customers that actually place the orders and put certain criteria in there, performance criteria, those are looked the same for every customer. The first customer actually took the first -- or gave us the first orders without knowing less than the second customer.

最重要的是，第一個實際下訂單並在其中提出某些標準、性能標準的客戶，這些對每個客戶來說都是一樣的。第一位顧客實際上拿走了第一份訂單——或者說給了我們第一批訂單，而他所知道的資訊卻比第二位顧客少。

So our ability to negotiate terms and conditions and certain performance conditions with second customer are different than from the first, which will be different from the third.

因此，我們與第二個客戶協商條款和條件以及某些履約條件的能力與第一個客戶不同，而與第三個客戶也不同。

And all those performance criterias drive revenue recognition. So it is not only what Wolfgang just said, it's also the fact that per customer it is different. We'll just have to guide you quarter-by-quarter and it's unfortunately also for us not always that simple to predict when we do, what level of revenue recognition at what margin.

所有這些績效標準都會推動收入確認。所以這不只是沃夫岡剛才所說的，事實上每個客戶的情況都是不同的。我們只需要按季度為您提供指導，但不幸的是，我們並不總是能夠簡單地預測何時進行指導、在何種利潤率下實現何種水平的收入確認。

But I think for the next two years, 2016 and 2017, it is what it is.

但我認為接下來的兩年，也就是 2016 年和 2017 年，情況就是這樣。

And then I just had a quick follow-up, because you mentioned it. So I believe the 3300s are already prepaid. In terms of cash flow or cash collections on the 3350, how exactly does that work, does that follow the revenue recognition pattern or how should we think about the impact on that?

然後我只是快速跟進一下，因為你提到了這一點。所以我相信 3300 已經預付了。就 3350 的現金流量或現金收款而言，它究竟是如何運作的，是否遵循收入確認模式，或者我們應該如何考慮其影響？

We said this also earlier, when we think about our EUV priorities, we think about order first, then shipment, then cash, then revenue recognition.

我們之前也說過，當我們考慮 EUV 優先事項時，我們首先考慮的是訂單，然後是發貨，然後是現金，然後是收入確認。

And I don't want to sound sloppy, but the revenue recognition is what the revenue recognition is for [new] technology. But we have the cash flow much earlier. So it again -- it depends customer by customer, but you can make an average assumption that there is a significant portion of the cash coming at shipment.

我不想聽起來很馬虎，但收入確認就是針對[新]技術的收入確認。但我們很早就有現金流了。所以，這取決於每個客戶，但你可以平均假設，有很大一部分現金是在發貨時到達的。

Andrew Gardiner, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。

Just a bit of a follow-up on that last one, in terms of the -- sort of the planning for production next year. You've reiterated your confidence in six to seven EUV tools this year with a gradual ramp in the back half of the year, and clearly this time last year we had the sizable multi-year order from Intel.

關於最後一點，就明年的生產計劃而言，我只是稍微跟進一下。您已經重申了對今年 6 到 7 種 EUV 工具的信心，並且將在下半年逐步增加產量，顯然去年這個時候我們從英特爾獲得了一筆數額可觀的多年期訂單。

I'm just wondering how the conversations are going with the others in the customer base in terms of planning for those production slots. You're clearly planning on increasing the capacity to one a month, as you said, but depending on how people demand the tools or plan for that you could see some bottlenecks.

我只是想知道在規劃這些生產時段方面與客戶群中的其他人的對話進展如何。正如您所說，您顯然計劃將容量增加到每月一次，但根據人們對工具的需求或計劃，您可能會看到一些瓶頸。

Just can you give us any insight as to how 2017 is -- sort of the planning is firming up?

您能否向我們介紹一下 2017 年的計畫進度如何？

Yes, I think we've also said it on the previous call, I think for next year we have a capacity to anywhere between 12 units and 15 units.

是的，我想我們在上次電話會議上也說過，我認為明年我們的產能將在 12 到 15 個單位之間。

Now, your question how the conversation is going with the other customers, I think an indication of -- you can imagine how that goes. I still like to refer back to what we said at SPIE, or what the customers said at SPIE.

現在，您的問題是與其他顧客的對話進展如何，我認為這表明——您可以想像談話進展如何。我仍然喜歡回顧我們在 SPIE 上說過的話，或者客戶在 SPIE 上說過的話。

There's a lot of good data coming out of the customer base that show a lot of confidence in the fact that EUV will reach manufacturing maturity.

來自客戶群的大量良好數據顯示，客戶對 EUV 將達到製造成熟度充滿信心。

Now, you have to remember that those presentations are very often done by the R&D people of our customers, and that the people who have to run the tools and have to commit output to their customers, are the people in operations.

現在，你必須記住，這些演示通常是由我們客戶的研發人員完成的，而必須運行工具並向客戶提交輸出的人是營運人員。

So the discussion that we currently having are with the operations people, and they are about availability, and levels of productivity, where they have given us certain targets and we have given them our internal targets. And they would like to see them, they would like to see them running at the 3350, which is going to be the production tools, together with the 3400.

因此，我們目前正在與營運人員進行討論，討論可用性和生產力水平，他們為我們設定了一定的目標，我們也為他們設定了內部目標。他們希望看到它們，他們希望看到它們在 3350 上運行，這將與 3400 一起成為生產工具。

And this is exactly the phase that we're in, where we are shipping 3350s to the key customers, they're in installation, or in this quarter will -- some of them will be turned over to the customer. And then we'll see the first results and that will drive also the order interaction with us and the customers.

這正是我們所處的階段，我們正在向主要客戶運送 3350，它們正在安裝中，或者在本季度 - 其中一些將移交給客戶。然後我們將看到第一批結果，這也將推動我們和客戶之間的訂單互動。

So to be very honest, I think it's just a matter of time this year that we will see a follow on. We are confident that what we see in our factory we can repeat at the customer site and that will drive orders, just like you said. If you want to ship 12 units to 15 units next year, orders need to come and they will come.

所以說實話，我認為今年我們看到後續進展只是時間問題。我們相信，我們在工廠看到的情況可以在客戶現場重複，這將推動訂單，就像您所說的那樣。如果您明年想要運送 12 到 15 個單位，那麼訂單就需要到來，而且訂單也會到來。

And then perhaps just a quick follow-up. Wolfgang, you mentioned that the EUV tool 3350 that shipped in the first quarter, you're not going to recognize any revenue on that until 2017.

然後也許只是一個快速的跟進。沃夫岡，您提到第一季出貨的 EUV 工具 3350，您要到 2017 年才能確認其收入。

If anything that seems like a slightly longer timeframe from ship and install to rev rec than you've just planned for with the first two shipments, is there any reason for that?

如果從發貨、安裝到收貨的時間似乎比您計劃的前兩批貨物的時間要長一些，這有什麼原因嗎？

Andrew, I can't go into much details there, because some of this stuff is all the customer specific.

安德魯，我無法透露太多細節，因為其中一些東西都是針對客戶特定的。

So I just refer to my answer on the previous question.

所以我只是參考我對上一個問題的回答。

Gareth Jenkins, UBS.

瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。

Couple of good follow-ups. Firstly, I just wondered if you could talk about the applications of the three customers running at 80%, [are these] intended applications for the processes for those customers.

一些很好的後續行動。首先，我只是想知道您是否可以談談這三個客戶運行率為 80% 的應用程序，這些應用程式是否是針對這些客戶的流程而設計的。

And secondly I just want to -- Peter, whether you'd expect to step down in availability as you move from kind of ASML, Veldhoven factory environment to a more production-orientated customer site? And then I've got a follow-up on something else. Thanks.

其次，我只想問——彼得，當您從 ASML、Veldhoven 工廠環境轉移到更以生產為導向的客戶網站時，您是否預期可用性會降低？然後我還要跟進一些其他的事情。謝謝。

Well to answer your last question, a step down in the [particular] node, that is not what we anticipate. We're running these tools here as much as we can and the circumstances which are comparable to what the customer will do. So that should not be the case. What you're referring to the 80%, I believe you're referring to availability, Gareth?

好吧，回答你的最後一個問題，在[特定]節點上的退步，這不是我們所預期的。我們在這裡盡可能地運行這些工具，並且運行的環境與客戶的操作類似。所以事實不應該如此。您提到的 80%，我相信您指的是可用性，加雷斯？

Yes. Just the customers in terms of what applications they intend to take EUV to eventually? What are they trialing the 80% availability, what are they (multiple speakers)?

是的。就客戶最終打算將 EUV 應用於哪些應用而言？他們正在試用 80% 的可用性，他們是什麼（多個發言者）？

It's logic and also memory. I mean there's also memory customers doing this. I mean, the 3300s that are currently running are running predominantly in a logic environment, but also in some leading edge DRAM environments.

這是邏輯，也是記憶。我的意思是也有記憶體客戶這樣做。我的意思是，目前運行的 3300 主要在邏輯環境中運行，但也在一些前緣 DRAM 環境中運行。

And the last one is just on cross-point. I just wonder whether you could talk about the litho-intensity of cross-point that you see, maybe excluding EUV as a factor in the potential step-up there?

最後一個就在交叉點上。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您所看到的交叉點的光刻強度，也許排除 EUV 作為潛在升級的一個因素？

I think the cross-point is quite interesting. I mean this has been introduced. It holds -- if you listen to the customers, it holds great promise in terms of speed and application space.

我覺得這個交叉點蠻有趣的。我的意思是這已經被引入了。如果你聽聽客戶的意見，你會發現它在速度和應用空間方面有著很大的前景。

Currently, those cross-point products are made with deep UV immersion technology and ultimately we believe, because it's a shrink capability, or at least an X and Y and Z direction shrink capability, gives us a lot of space for EUV. But it's not going to happen before the end of the decade.

目前，這些交叉點產品是採用深紫外線浸沒技術製造的，最終我們相信，由於它具有縮小能力，或者至少是 X、Y 和 Z 方向的縮小能力，為 EUV 提供了很大的空間。但這不會在本世紀末之前發生。

But when you take it all into consideration, and it would ramp in volume towards the end of the decade, then you would think about a three times higher intensity for cross-point as compared to 3D NAND.

但是當你把所有因素都考慮進去，並且到本世紀末產量會大幅增加時，你會認為交叉點的強度會比 3D NAND 高出三倍。

Douglas Smith.

道格拉斯史密斯。

Hi, [Doug Smith] from [Agency Partners]. Wolfgang, you have continuously guided to around 10% growth in field options and services, but it's actually continuously grown much faster than that. I'm not complaining, but since it's around a third of revenues now, can you provide a little more breakdown into that business? I think you hinted that you might want to, or you needed to provide more detail.

你好，我是 [Agency Partners] 的 [Doug Smith]。沃爾夫岡，您一直預測現場選項和服務將成長 10% 左右，但實際上成長速度遠快於此。我並不是抱怨，但是由於它現在佔了總收入的三分之一左右，您能否對該業務進行更詳細的細分？我認為您暗示您可能想要這樣做，或者您需要提供更多細節。

Yes, you can roughly, in average, think about half of it being service. Like I said that's pretty stable and that is growing with the installed base, of course.

是的，大致平均下來，你可以認為其中一半是服務。就像我說的，這非常穩定，當然會隨著安裝基數而增長。

And then the other half, in average, sometimes a bit more than half, sometimes a little bit less, are various field options in all of our businesses. Will also be the case for EUV. But prominent one is the SNEP upgrade, which is basically -- it stands for system node enhancement package, which is basically a complete open-heart surgery on a scanner, where you, for instance, can make a 1950 and 1970 or go even beyond that.

另一半，平均而言，有時多一點，有時少一點，是我們所有業務中的各種領域選擇。EUV 也是如此。但最突出的是 SNEP 升級，它基本上是系統節點增強包的縮寫，基本上是在掃描儀上進行的完整的開胸心臟手術，例如，你可以製作 1950 和 1970 甚至超越那個。

Those have been introduced last year in volume, with quite a few there, and that provided for one of the step functions. We often get asked why is your system revenue flattening out. And part of the reason is because we are providing a win-win alternative to the customer, it helps them with capital intensity and we are getting an option, where the economics for us are acceptable as well.

這些產品已於去年大量推出，數量相當多，並且提供了階躍功能之一。我們常被問到為什麼你們的系統收入趨於平穩。部分原因是我們為客戶提供了雙贏的方案，它幫助他們提高資本密集度，而我們也獲得了一個選擇，對我們來說，經濟效益也是可以接受的。

And then in the past you may remember we had several one-time events that gave us growth spurts. For instance, we included Cymer at one year, that's quite a big business as well. And now we are at a pretty decent level. Last year it was one-third of our business, it's about [EUR2 billion] plus. And we continue to believe that it's growing at least as strong as the rest of our business and that's pretty exciting for us.

您可能還記得，過去我們曾經歷過幾次讓我們快速成長的一次性事件。例如，我們將 Cymer 納入了一年，這也是一項相當大的業務。現在我們已經處於相當不錯的水平。去年它占我們業務的三分之一，約[20億歐元]以上。我們仍然相信，它的成長至少與我們其他業務一樣強勁，這對我們來說非常令人興奮。

Can you say whether the services and field options have higher or lower margins than the systems business?

您能否說一下服務和現場選項的利潤率是否高於或低於系統業務？

Service is lower than the corporate average, [field adoptions] are higher than the corporate average.

服務低於公司平均水平，[現場採用]高於公司平均水平。

There's a lot of software in there also.

那裡還有很多軟體。

Lot of software components.

許多軟體組件。

And finally, does a lot of that actually come from backlog? I mean I would imagine for field upgrades. It's not like something you would do on the spur of the moment. It must have quite a bit of visibility to it.

最後，其中許多是否實際上來自積壓？我的意思是我會想像現場升級。這不像是你一時衝動會做的事情。它一定具有相當高的可見度。

That's a correct. I mean when we rethink, because just for clarification for everybody on the call. Our backlog that we report is just for systems.

這是正確的。我的意思是當我們重新思考時，因為只是為了向電話中的每個人澄清。我們報告的積壓工作僅針對系統。

So if we would report that differently, some of the options have longer order lead times. If you think about the SNEP that I mentioned, I mean that's a six to seven week project and there's limited amount of teams and material, so you get a schedule there.

因此，如果我們以不同的方式報告，某些選項的訂單交付週期會更長。如果你考慮我提到的 SNEP，我的意思是那是一個為期六到七週的項目，而且團隊和材料的數量有限，所以你會在那裡得到一個時間表。

So there we have more visibility. In some of the software upgrades we have a little bit shorter lead times. So there is some visibility on some of the options.

因此我們的可見度更高。在一些軟體升級中，我們的交付週期稍微短一些。因此，某些選項還是有一定的可見性的。

In the early comments he said we might -- if that becomes bigger and becomes more relevant, we just need to look at how we're going to report that.

在早期的評論中，他說我們可能會——如果這件事變得更大、更相關，我們只需要看看我們將如何報告它。

Right, because If it keeps on growing at the previous rate, it will be [EUR2.5 billion] this year or something, if it's -- just using the trend from the previous years.

是的，因為如果按照之前的速度繼續成長，那麼今年就會達到 [25 億歐元] 左右，如果按照前幾年的趨勢來看的話。

Yes. And like Wolfgang said, there are sometimes these SNEP system upgrades, could be anywhere between [EUR20 million to EUR30 million] a piece. If you just add up them that's [EUR300 million], that's a lot of money.

是的。正如沃爾夫岡所說，有時這些 SNEP 系統升級的費用可能在 [2000 萬歐元到 3000 萬歐元] 之間。如果把它們加起來就是 3 億歐元，那就是一大筆錢。

We just have need to look how that's going to develop and if that becomes significant, then I think we need to start thinking about different way to report it, so you guys can actually follow it.

我們只需要看看事情會如何發展，如果事情變得重要，那麼我認為我們需要開始考慮用不同的方式來報道，這樣你們才能真正關注它。

Amit Harchandani, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿米特·哈爾錢達尼（Amit Harchandani）。

Two quick clarifications, if I may. Firstly, with regards to the topic of equipment reuse, we have again seen some comments from some of your larger customers that have reported Q1 results, talking about reusing equipment.

如果可以的話，我想簡單澄清兩點。首先，關於設備再利用的話題，我們再次看到一些較大客戶在報告第一季業績時發表的評論，其中談到了設備再利用的問題。

Just wanted to confirm if you think the level of reuse in the industry being talked about is still consistent with your longer-term financial model? And then, I have -- and also if you could share any updated thoughts on equipment reuse. And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.

只是想確認您是否認為所討論的行業中的重用水平仍然與您的長期財務模型一致？然後，我有——並且您是否可以分享有關設備再利用的任何最新想法。然後我有一個後續問題。謝謝。

Yes. I think in our long-term financial model, we have included, as you pointed out, we have included the possibility of our customers making use of the reuse capability.

是的。我認為，在我們的長期財務模型中，正如您所指出的，我們已經考慮了客戶利用重複使用​​能力的可能性。

And what we're currently seeing is that it's still in line with what we are planning, and that is because of this -- like Wolfgang pointed out, these upgrades are open-heart surgeries in the field and they are planned per node.

我們目前看到的情況是，它仍然符合我們的計劃，這是因為——正如沃爾夫岡指出的那樣，這些升級是現場開胸手術，並且是按節點進行規劃的。

So when we discuss a node with a customer, 7 nanometer node, for instance, there is an assumption in there, in the discussion with the customers, because of the higher litho intensity, how much of that litho intensity will be split between increase of new systems versus upgrades of existing systems.

因此，當我們與客戶討論節點時，例如 7 奈米節點，在與客戶的討論中有一個假設，由於光刻強度較高，光刻強度的多少將在增加新系統和升級現有系統之間分配。

So we have a pretty good view as to how the customers think and we work that thinking into our long-term planning. So it's pretty consistent, but it is not a surprise, because we're executing according to plan.

因此，我們對客戶的想法有相當好的了解，並將這種想法融入我們的長期規劃中。所以這是相當一致的，但這並不奇怪，因為我們正在按照計劃執行。

And to add one thing, if I may. I mean, we are aware of the comments, but I also need to let you know that for us the 10 and the 7 for instance is -- in that applications for instance, the litho requirements are the same and that customer also said that's exactly the same as 16 was to 20, so that part we wouldn't even classify as reuse.

如果可以的話，我還要補充一點。我的意思是，我們知道這些評論，但我還需要讓你知道，對於我們來說，例如 10 和 7 - 例如在那個應用程式中，光刻要求是相同的，並且客戶也說這與 16 到 20 完全相同，所以我們甚至不會將那部分歸類為重複使用。

And to be honest, we also -- when we looked at 28-nanometer where -- with some customers we actually planned reuse of the equipment, but given the strength of the 28 nanometer node, it never got to any reuse. I mean, we never got to the point.

老實說，當我們研究 28 奈米時，我們也與一些客戶一起計劃重複使用設備，但考慮到 28 奈米節點的強度，它從未得到任何重複使用。我的意思是，我們從來沒有達到這個目的。

Well, with other customers, the 28 nanometer node was not that successful, and we reused it in 14, or in 16, or in 20. So it's a bit different per customer, but also the ultimate size of the capacity in a particular node will also determine how much reuse there will be. Other customers will keep using the machine as is.

嗯，對於其他客戶來說，28 奈米節點並不是那麼成功，我們在 14 奈米、16 奈米或 20 奈米節點上重複使用了它。因此，每個客戶的情況都有所不同，但特定節點的最終容量大小也將決定重複使用的程度。其他客戶將繼續使用該機器。

And in terms of the second clarification, if I may, you talked about memory or DRAM in particular shaping up to be better in the second half versus the first half. You talked about second half being higher than the first half.

關於第二個澄清，如果可以的話，您談到了內存或 DRAM 在下半年的表現會比上半年更好。您說的是下半年會比上半年更高。

Would you be willing to also comment and compare it to current market expectations out there for your full-year revenues, and say whether you think that that implies an increase in market expectation, or are there any downward trends that we should be aware of that would deviate away from the market expectation? Thank you.

您是否願意發表評論，並將其與目前市場對全年收入的預期進行比較，並說明您是否認為這意味著市場預期有所增加，或者是否存在我們應該注意的偏離市場預期的下降趨勢？謝謝。

Yes. On the first part, just to clarify, we said memory would be approximately the same in the second half than in the first half. And if I would comment on the market expectations, then I would essentially give guidance.

是的。關於第一部分，只是為了澄清一下，我們說後半部的記憶與前半部的記憶大致相同。如果我要評論市場預期，那麼我基本上會給出指導。

So we'd better stay away from this and remain -- and I'll just probably repeat it. Logic is going to be up second half, memory is going to be stable, H1 versus H2. And like we just discussed with Doug, service and field options will go up in the second half.

所以我們最好遠離這個並保持——我可能會重複一遍。邏輯將在下半場上升，記憶體將會穩定，H1 與 H2。正如我們剛剛與 Doug 討論的那樣，服務和場地選擇將在下半年增加。

I'd like to jump in here momentarily. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question, if you were unable to get through on this call, and still have a question, feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question, and we'll do our very best to get back to you as quickly as we can.

我想暫時插話到這裡。女士們，先生們，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題，如果您無法接通本次電話，並且仍然有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題，我們將盡最大努力盡快回复您。

Operator, if we can have the last caller, please.

接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電者嗎？

David O'Connor.

大衛·奧康納。

Operator let's go ahead --.

接線員我們繼續吧--。

Amit Daryanani.

阿米特·達裡亞納尼。

Hi, this is (inaudible) for Amit. And we're from RBC Capital Markets.

你好，這是（聽不清楚）給阿米特的。我們來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

So one question, the previous one to two large node transitions, your bookings were at high levels for about three to four quarters, and given the 10% node to node reduction you mentioned, and also the quicker ramp at a few customers that you're seeing right now for 10 nanometer, is it fair to assume that 10 nanometer ramp will be probably one to two quarters shorter than previous node transition, and probably the booking euro amount will be smaller?

所以有一個問題，在之前的一到兩個大型節點轉換中，您的預訂量在大約三到四個季度內處於高水平，並且考慮到您提到的節點間 10% 的減少，以及您現在看到的一些客戶對 10 奈米製程的更快提升，是否可以合理地假設 10 奈米製程的提升可能比之前的點值轉換一到兩個季度，並且預訂奈米製一金額可能會更小？

I think, because if the litho density goes up, it's not likely the bookings amount will be smaller, it's not likely. And also you've to -- I tried to explain in my introductory statements that these nodes -- if you talk about a ramp of a node or a node to a total capacity, it takes a very long time, it has a very long tail end, so there will be an initial ramp.

我認為，因為如果光刻密度上升，預訂量就不太可能會減少，不太可能。而且你必須——我在介紹性陳述中試圖解釋這些節點——如果你談論一個節點或一個節點到總容量的坡道，它需要很長時間，它有一個非常長的尾端，所以會有一個初始坡道。

And since the pattern is changing, it is very difficult to compare the initial, let's say, first two, three, four quarters of a new node with the nodes -- with the previous ones.

而且由於模式不斷變化，因此很難將新節點的初始節點（例如前兩個、三個、四個季度）與先前的節點進行比較。

But I would summarize it like this. I said, the number of customers that over the last couple of years have been able to start an initial new logic node has shrunk, there is only a very few.

但我會這樣總結。我說過，過去幾年能夠啟動初始新邏輯節點的客戶數量已經減少，只剩下極少數。

They are more aggressive in ramping the first part of that node, because they have to make sure that they can provide their key customers with wafers, so that's what you will see. And they've a long tail end.

他們更加積極地推進該節點的第一部分，因為他們必須確保能夠為主要客戶提供晶圓，所以這就是您將看到的。它們的尾巴很長。

So I don't think you can draw any conclusions from that other than that the nodes will be longer, and that the litho intensity will go up. Hence, when you also will look at the need for EUV, ASML is looking to grow its topline and we still stick to our simulated number, by 2020 EUR10 billion.

因此，我認為除了節點會更長、光刻強度會上升之外，你無法從中得出任何結論。因此，當您考慮 EUV 的需求時，ASML 正在尋求增加其營業額，我們仍然堅持我們的預測數字，即到 2020 年達到 100 億歐元。

And one follow-up. Last year you had an EUV volume purchase agreement with at least 15 tools with a US logic customer. I mean, given the discussion you have right now with this customer, do you have any update on the number of tools will be shipped under this agreement?

還有一個後續行動。去年，您與美國邏輯客戶簽訂了至少 15 種工具的 EUV 批量購買協議。我的意思是，鑑於您現在與該客戶的討論，您是否有任何關於根據該協議將運送的工具數量的最新資訊？

We will give you update when we get the orders. This is volume purchase agreement, and where we -- purchase orders are issued according to a predetermined pattern, which is a reflection of when the customers need the tools to put them into production. So, we will inform you when we get the orders.

收到訂單後，我們會向您更新最新情況。這是批量採購協議，我們按照預定的模式發出採購訂單，這反映了客戶何時需要工具來投入生產。因此，我們收到訂單時會通知您。

On behalf of ASML's Board and management, I'd now like to thank you for joining us on the call today. Operator, if you could formerly conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

我謹代表 ASML 董事會和管理階層感謝您今天的電話會議。接線員，如果您能提前結束通話，我將非常感激。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2016 first quarter financial results. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line.

謝謝您，先生。女士們，先生們，ASML 2016 年第一季財務表現到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。