使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2016 third-quarter financial results conference call on October 19, 2016. (Operator Instructions).
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2016年10月19日ASML 2016年第三季財務業績電話會議。 (操作員指示)。
I would now like to open the question and answer queue. (Operator Instructions).
現在我想開始問答環節。 (操作員指令)。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生,請繼續。
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Thank you, Patricia, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig De-Young, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from our headquarters here in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, are Peter Wennink, ASML's CEO; and Wolfgang Nickl, our CFO.
謝謝你,帕特里夏。女士們、先生們,下午好,早安。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Craig De-Young。今天,與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部前來的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink;以及我們的財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。
The subject of today's call is ASML's 2016 third-quarter results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they're received. The call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com, and a replay of the call will be available on our website.
今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2016年第三季業績。通話時間為 60 分鐘,問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 www.asml.com 上進行現場直播,會議重播也將在我們的網站上提供。
Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒聽眾,管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。
For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commissions.
對於風險因素的討論,我建議您查看我們網站上今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明,以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中包含的安全港聲明。
Now with that, I'd like to turn the call over Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.
現在,我想請 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。
Peter.
彼得。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Thank you, Craig. Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2016 results conference call. Before we begin the question and answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide you with an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter, and provide you our view of the coming quarters.
謝謝你,克雷格。女士們、先生們,早安、下午好,感謝大家參加我們的 2016 年第三季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前,沃夫岡和我想為大家提供一下最近一個季度的概況和一些評論,並向大家介紹一下我們對未來幾季的看法。
Wolfgang will start with a review of the third-quarter financial performance with some added comments on the short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some comments on our longer-term outlook and of EUV's [facts].
沃爾夫岡將首先回顧第三季度的財務業績,並對短期前景發表一些評論,然後我將對我們的長期前景和 EUV 的[事實]發表一些評論來完成介紹。
Wolfgang, if you will.
沃爾夫岡,如果你願意的話。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone.
謝謝你,彼得,歡迎大家。
For Q3, our net sales came in at a very strong EUR1.81 billion. System sales accounted for EUR1.24 billion, driven by logic, which represented 84% of sales, with memory softening temporarily to 16%.
第三季度,我們的淨銷售額達到了強勁的18.1億歐元。系統銷售額達 12.4 億歐元,其中邏輯產品佔銷售額的 84%,而記憶體產品銷售額暫時下降至 16%。
System sales included partial revenue recognition of approximately EUR85 million for the one EUV system we shipped during the quarter. This EUV revenue was not forecasted at the beginning of the quarter, and was made possible because EUV system installation timing became predictable earlier than expected.
系統銷售包括我們本季出貨的一套 EUV 系統的部分收入確認,金額約為 8,500 萬歐元。本季初並未預測到這筆 EUV 收入,這是因為 EUV 系統安裝時間比預期更早可預測。
From this point forward, on new EUV shipments, a majority of revenue can be recognized at completion of system shipment.
從現在開始,對於新的 EUV 出貨量,大部分收入可以在系統出貨完成時確認。
Service and field option sales for last quarter came in at a strong EUR577 million.
上季服務和現場選項銷售額強勁成長,達到 5.77 億歐元。
Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 46%. This margin was negatively impacted by 1.4 percentage points due to the partial revenue recognition of the one EUV system not originally forecast in revenue. Non-EUV gross margin came in above our expectations.
本季我們的毛利率為46%。由於最初未預測收入的一套 EUV 系統被部分確認收入,因此該利潤率受到 1.4 個百分點的負面影響。非 EUV 毛利率高於我們的預期。
R&D expenses came in at EUR273 million, and SG&A expenses came in at EUR89 million, both essentially as guided.
研發費用為 2.73 億歐元,銷售、一般及行政費用為 0.89 億歐元,兩者基本上符合預期。
At quarter end, we had to make a fair value adjustment for the foreign exchange hedging instruments that we entered into in connection with the planned acquisition of HMI. This adjustment reduced our net income by approximately EUR28 million, and was recorded in the interest line of our P&L.
在季度末,我們必須對與計劃收購 HMI 相關的外匯對沖工具進行公允價值調整。此項調整使我們的淨收入減少了約 2800 萬歐元,並記錄在我們的損益表的利息行中。
Shifting to the order book.
轉移到訂單簿。
Q3 system bookings came in just over EUR1.4 billion. This included more than EUR300 million in EUV orders. Strong bookings continued in the logic sector in support of the 10-nanometer RAMs, with memory bookings increasing from last quarter, supporting stronger memory shipments expected in Q4.
第三季系統預訂額略高於 14 億歐元。其中包括超過3億歐元的EUV訂單。為支援 10 奈米 RAM,邏輯領域的訂單持續強勁,記憶體訂單較上一季增加,預計第四季度記憶體出貨量將更加強勁。
Logic and memory bookings strength was in part due to three new EUV orders received from both sectors. These orders bring our total EUV system order book for 3350s and 3400s to 12 systems valued at about EUR1.3 billion. Our overall system backlog grew by approximately EUR90 million to EUR3.5 billion.
邏輯和記憶體訂單強勁的部分原因是來自兩個部門的三個新的 EUV 訂單。這些訂單使我們的 3350 和 3400 EUV 系統訂單總數達到 12 個系統,價值約 13 億歐元。我們的整體系統積壓訂單增加了約 9,000 萬歐元,達到 35 億歐元。
Turning to the balance sheet.
轉向資產負債表。
Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, came in at EUR4.31 billion. This includes the proceeds from two eurobonds that we issued in July to partially finance our acquisition of HMI, which is expected to close later this year.
現金、現金等價物和短期投資季增 43.1 億歐元。這包括我們 7 月發行的兩筆歐洲債券的收益,部分用於資助我們對 HMI 的收購,預計該收購將於今年稍後完成。
Free cash flow for the quarter was a negative EUR72 million driven by shipment linearity and shipments for which we had received partial prepayments during the prior quarter.
本季的自由現金流為負 7,200 萬歐元,原因是出貨量線性以及我們在上一季收到部分預付款的出貨量。
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the fourth quarter of 2016.
接下來,我想談談我們對 2016 年第四季的預期和指導。
We expect Q4 total net sales of between EUR1.7 billion and EUR1.8 billion. While logic shipments supporting 10-nanometer ramps will continue in Q4, we will see them a bit more balanced against memory shipments.
我們預計第四季總淨銷售額將在 17 億歐元至 18 億歐元之間。雖然支援 10 奈米製程的邏輯出貨量將在第四季度繼續增長,但我們將看到它們與記憶體出貨量相比更加平衡。
We expect to ship one NXE:3300 EUV system in Q4, with an associated partial revenue recognition of approximately EUR60 million. Furthermore, we expect recognition of deferred EUV revenue of approximately EUR80 million in the quarter. Total 2016 EUV shipments will then come in at four systems, two systems short of our targeted minimum of six systems.
我們預計在第四季出貨一套 NXE:3300 EUV 系統,相關部分收入確認約 6,000 萬歐元。此外,我們預計本季確認的遞延 EUV 收入約為 8,000 萬歐元。 2016 年 EUV 出貨量總計將為 4 套系統,比我們設定的 6 套最低出貨量目標少 2 套。
For one system, the customer's factory is not ready yet to receive the system; and for the other system, we experienced a delay of inbound material.
對於一個系統,客戶工廠尚未準備好接收該系統;對於另一個系統,我們遇到了入站材料延遲的問題。
The two systems that will move to 2017 will be incremental to our 2017 plan. As a reminder, we have a production capacity of around a dozen systems next year, and expect the outstanding orders to fill up that capacity by the end of this year.
將於 2017 年遷移的兩個系統將作為我們 2017 年計畫的增量。提醒一下,我們明年的生產能力約為十幾個系統,預計今年年底未完成的訂單將填滿該產能。
We expect Q4 service and field options revenue to come in above EUR600 million, driven by ongoing strong demand for holistic lithography options, high-value upgrades, and our growing installed base.
我們預計第四季度服務和現場選項收入將超過 6 億歐元,這得益於對整體光刻選項、高價值升級以及我們不斷增長的安裝基礎的持續強勁需求。
Gross margin for Q4 is expected to come in between 47% and 48%, benefiting from the recognition of the deferred EUV revenue I mentioned earlier.
預計第四季度的毛利率將在 47% 至 48% 之間,這得益於我之前提到的遞延 EUV 收入的確認。
R&D expenses for the fourth quarter will be about EUR275 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR100 million. SG&A is impacted by one-time costs which are related to the planned acquisition of HMI.
第四季的研發費用約為 2.75 億歐元,銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 1 億歐元。銷售、一般及行政費用受到與計劃收購 HMI 相關的一次性成本的影響。
Regarding share buybacks, as mentioned last quarter, they have been passed while we were in the midst of the HMI acquisition process.
關於股票回購,正如上個季度所提到的,這些股票回購在我們進行 HMI 收購過程中就已經通過了。
Let me conclude with a couple of comments on the status of our acquisition of HMI which we announced on June 16.
最後,我想就我們 6 月 16 日宣布的收購 HMI 的現狀發表幾點評論。
In early August, HMI shareholders have voted in favor of the acquisition. We have received regulatory approval from CFIUS in the United States, from the Competition Commission in Singapore, from the Taiwan FTC, and from the Taiwan Investment Commission for our inbound investment. We're awaiting approvals from the Korean FTC and the Taiwanese Investment Commission for an outbound investment related to the private placement in ASML shares.
8月初,HMI股東已投票贊成此收購案。我們的入境投資已獲得美國外國投資委員會、新加坡競爭委員會、台灣聯邦貿易委員會和台灣投資委員會的監管批准。我們正在等待韓國聯邦貿易委員會和台灣投資委員會對 ASML 股票私募相關的對外投資的批准。
Closure of the acquisition is still planned for Q4 of this year, and we have begun the transfer of funds to Taiwan for final execution of the purchase.
這項收購仍計劃於今年第四季完成,我們已開始將資金轉移到台灣,最終完成收購。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.
說完這些,我想把電話轉回給你,彼得。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Thank you, Wolfgang.
謝謝你,沃夫岡。
As Wolfgang highlighted, our business continues to perform well and as expected. He has discussed the most relevant point of the quarter and our outlook for the balance of this year. I would like to take a bit of time to talk about our initial view of 2017 and review the status of our EUV program and customer interaction.
正如沃爾夫岡所強調的,我們的業務繼續表現良好並符合預期。他討論了本季最相關的要點以及我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。我想花點時間談談我們對 2017 年的初步看法,並回顧我們的 EUV 計劃和客戶互動的現狀。
Although it's too early to formulate a full quantitative view about next year, we've started to develop a qualitative view based upon early customer forecasts and our own modeling capability. Both of the memory sectors are expected to show solid bit growth again next year, not too dissimilar from this year.
雖然現在對明年形成完整的定量觀點還為時過早,但我們已經開始根據早期客戶預測和我們自己的建模能力形成定性觀點。預計明年這兩個記憶體領域都將再次呈現穩健的成長,與今年的情況不會有太大差別。
Given the available wafer capacity in the memory industry, this in turn should drive our memory sales to levels of little spend at slightly higher than this year.
考慮到內存行業可用的晶圓產能,這反過來應該會推動我們的內存銷售達到略高於今年的水平。
We expect 10-nanometer logic ramps to continue in support of the healthy demand levels for this generation of devices, as also recently confirmed by one of our large foundry customers.
我們預計 10 奈米邏輯製程的提升將繼續支持這一代設備的健康需求水平,這一點最近也得到了我們一家大型代工客戶的證實。
Service and field option sales is expected to continue to grow in 2017, well on track to support our 2020 target of around EUR3 billion. This is in part driven by significant sales of scanner system upgrades, supporting the efficient capital deployment of customers in the leading-edge node transitions.
預計 2017 年服務和現場選項銷售額將繼續成長,預計將實現我們 2020 年約 30 億歐元的目標。這在一定程度上得益於掃描器系統升級的大量銷售,支援客戶在前沿節點轉換中的有效資本部署。
Regarding EUV in 2017, we will start to see the real impact of EUV system sales on our top line, with recognition of systems shipped in the calendar year, as well as pieces of remaining revenue recognition from systems shipped this year.
關於 2017 年的 EUV,我們將開始看到 EUV 系統銷售對我們收入的真正影響,包括對日曆年出貨系統的確認,以及今年出貨系統的剩餘收入確認。
As Wolfgang mentioned, EUV system installation timing became predictable this quarter such that we're now able to recognize the majority of system revenues upon shipment.
正如 Wolfgang 所提到的,本季 EUV 系統的安裝時間變得可預測,因此我們現在能夠在出貨時確認大部分系統收入。
You all may have heard a significant amount of -- I would call it chatter this quarter about what one might call a go, or no-go issues with EUV in logic. This is understandable given the current status of EUV maturity and its related stability performance.
大家可能都聽過大量關於 EUV 在邏輯上可行或不可行問題的討論。考慮到 EUV 成熟度及其相關穩定性性能的現狀,這是可以理解的。
However, let me remind you at this point that our customers are facing unprecedented imaging and overlay challenges, and that they're all convinced that this imaging technology will help to overcome those challenges. And as a result, it should be no surprise to you that our efforts are fully focused on the [utilization] of this technology, specifically on the system availability of these highly capable yet complex tools.
不過,讓我在此時提醒您,我們的客戶正面臨前所未有的成像和疊加挑戰,他們都相信這種成像技術將有助於克服這些挑戰。因此,您應該不會感到驚訝,我們的努力完全集中在這項技術的利用上,特別是這些強大但複雜的工具的系統可用性。
We believe the commitment of our customers is evidenced by the fact that we now have 12 NXE:3350 and 3400 production systems in our backlog. We will also ship the final two NXE:3300 systems, one before year end, and the other in early 2017, to two different customers such that they may also begin their in-house qualification of EUV for eventual production insertion. This will bring the total number of customers qualifying EUV for mass production to six, both in memory and logic sector.
我們相信,我們目前積壓的 12 個 NXE:3350 和 3400 生產系統證明了客戶的承諾。我們也將向兩位不同的客戶發送最後兩套 NXE:3300 系統,一套將在年底前發送,另一套將在 2017 年初發送,以便他們也能開始進行 EUV 內部認證,以最終投入生產。這將使符合 EUV 量產條件的客戶總數達到六家,涵蓋記憶體和邏輯領域。
All of our major customers have now publicly announced their intent to insert EUV into their production roadmaps. Final decisions on the exact timing of EUV insertion by our customers will vary from customer to customer.
我們所有的主要客戶現在都已公開宣布他們打算將 EUV 納入其生產路線圖。我們的客戶對於 EUV 插入的特定時間的最終決定將因客戶而異。
Next to the timing of customers' development programs, the number of EUV specific layers and their related planned timing of the high-volume ramp, it also depends on key tool performance metrics, all within a fairly tight but well defined time window.
除了客戶開發計劃的時間表、EUV 特定層的數量及其相關的大批量生產計劃時間表之外,它還取決於關鍵工具性能指標,所有這些都在相當緊湊但明確的時間窗口內進行。
Given the current status of the aforementioned, we expect that the production insertion of EUV will require shipping systems in volume starting in the 2018/2019 timeframe.
鑑於上述現狀,我們預計 EUV 的生產插入將需要在 2018/2019 年開始批量出貨系統。
Just to remind you of our production capability, we will be able to produce around 12 new NXE:3400 systems in 2017, doubling this in 2018, and again approximately doubling this is in 2019.
提醒您我們的生產能力,我們將能夠在 2017 年生產約 12 個新的 NXE:3400 系統,在 2018 年將生產出兩倍,在 2019 年將再生產兩倍左右。
Currently, our leading EUV adoption customers are executing real pre-production layer qualifications, trusting that we will bring litho system reliability to an acceptable level for high-volume manufacturing insertion in the timeframes I just mentioned.
目前,我們領先的 EUV 採用客戶正在執行真正的預生產層鑑定,相信我們將在剛才提到的時間範圍內將光刻系統的可靠性提升到可接受的水平,以實現大批量製造插入。
To finish, supporting our customers' clear intent of moving EUV into production is our number 1 priority in order to ensure that our customers can execute their planned next node industrialization. ASML remains committed to do everything within our capability and power to bring EUV to manufacturing readiness as soon as possible.
最後,支援客戶將 EUV 投入生產的明確意圖是我們的首要任務,以確保我們的客戶能夠執行其計劃的下一個節點工業化。 ASML 將繼續盡一切努力讓 EUV 盡快達到製造準備狀態。
And with those comments, I will be happy to take your questions.
有了這些評論,我很樂意回答你們的問題。
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Thanks, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session, but beforehand as I always do, I would ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary, and this will allow us, of course, to get in as many callers as possible.
謝謝,彼得。女士們,先生們,接線員將立即向你們介紹問答環節的規程,但在此之前,正如我一直以來所做的那樣,我希望你們只問一個問題,並在必要時進行一次簡短的跟進,這當然可以讓我們盡可能多地接聽來電者。
Now, Patricia, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?
現在,派翠西亞,您可以給我們最後的指示,然後問第一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions). Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.
謝謝您,先生。 (操作員指令)。摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
My first question is regarding EUV, Peter. EUV seems to have reached many of the landmarks that you have talked about. You've highlighted today the 1,500 wafers per day. One of your tools is doing 90% availability. But the question I have is, is there a moment where TSMC, or Intel, or Samsung says, well, the EUV tool from ASML, say, NXE:3350 is now qualified by us and we will be implementing it? Or this is not -- do you not [agree] that that happens, that disqualification is announced, and this is just an ongoing process with the customer?
我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 的,Peter。 EUV 似乎已經達到了您談到的許多里程碑。您今天強調了每天 1,500 片晶圓。您的某個工具的可用性達到 90%。但我的問題是,台積電、英特爾或三星是否會說,好吧,ASML 的 EUV 工具(例如 NXE:3350)現在已經通過我們的認證,我們將實施它?或者這不是——您是否[同意]這種情況會發生,取消資格被宣布,而這只是與客戶進行的一個持續過程?
And I have one quick follow-up.
我還有一個快速的後續問題。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. I think you basically gave the answer. This is basically an ongoing process and it has to do with the fact that, yes, we are reaching the targets that you just mentioned on a regular basis, where it's the variability of the tools in field or in the entire installed base that is not consistently at those levels. And I think this is really what customers and ourselves are now working on to execute on those programs that will bring that consistency, and that will be an ongoing process.
是的。我想你基本上已經給了答案。這基本上是一個持續的過程,它與以下事實有關:是的,我們正在定期實現您剛才提到的目標,但現場或整個安裝基礎中的工具的變化並不一致地保持在那些水平。我認為這正是客戶和我們自己目前正在努力執行的能夠帶來一致性的計劃,這將是一個持續的過程。
And like I said in my introductory statement, the requirements for us to start shipping EUV tools for insertion in high volume is for us the 2018 and 2019 timeframe.
正如我在開場白中所說的那樣,我們開始大量運送 EUV 工具的要求是在 2018 年和 2019 年的時間範圍內。
So we have still some time, and this is exactly what we're going to use to get that consistency there so that us and our customers can take that informed position.
所以我們還有一些時間,這正是我們要利用的時間來保持一致性,以便我們和我們的客戶可以採取明智的立場。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Thank you. And then in the follow-up, you talked about what you expect for 2017. I'm sure you've heard one of your major foundry customers' conference call last week where they said that they believe the 7-nanometer node for them is going to be as big as the 28-nanometer node. The 28-nanometer node, as you've highlighted yourself, was a very major node at the foundries as such, and have you taken that into account in terms of your views into 2017 in terms of growth from the foundry/logic customers?
謝謝。然後在後續訪談中,您談到了對 2017 年的預期。我相信您已經聽到了上週您的一個主要代工客戶的電話會議,他們在會上表示,他們相信 7 奈米節點對他們來說將與 28 奈米節點一樣大。正如您自己強調的那樣,28 奈米節點是代工廠的一個非常重要的節點,在您對 2017 年代工廠/邏輯客戶的成長預測中,您是否已考慮到這一點?
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Well, I think we've always said that we believe that potential 7-nanometer node was going to be a real node and a real node in volume, and we just get the confirmation from our customers that that is indeed the case, and that statement was made last year is just a confirmation of what we have believed all along.
嗯,我想我們一直說,我們相信潛在的 7 奈米節點將是一個真正的節點,一個真正的批量節點,我們剛剛從客戶那裡得到確認,情況確實如此,去年發表的聲明只是對我們一直以來所相信的事情的證實。
So, yes. We will see a continuation, a strong continuation. And let's be honest, 2016 was a strong logic year for us, and we see that continuing into 2017. There's no sign of any waning of our customers' intents.
是的。我們將看到一種延續,一種強勁的延續。說實話,2016 年對我們來說是邏輯性很強的一年,我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2017 年。沒有跡象表明我們的客戶意圖有所減弱。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
C.J. Muse.
C.J. 繆斯。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
I guess the first question, I wanted to get a little bit deeper into deferred revenues and how would you think about EUV prospectively. So once you recognize the EUR80 million in Q4, can you share with us what deferred revenues will be remaining?
我想第一個問題是,我想更深入地了解遞延收入,以及您對 EUV 的未來有何看法。那麼,一旦您在第四季度確認了 8000 萬歐元,您能否與我們分享剩餘的遞延收入?
And then as part of that, how we should think about what percentage of ASP will be revenued immediately upon shipment.
然後作為其中的一部分,我們應該考慮在發貨後可以立即獲得多少比例的 ASP 收入。
And then lastly, how should we think about gross margin trajectory now that your revenue-ing upon shipment in the calendar 2017 timeframe?
最後,考慮到您在 2017 年曆時間範圍內的出貨收入,我們應該如何看待毛利率走勢?
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Okay. I will take this, C.J.
好的。我會接受的,C.J。
First on deferred revenue. First of all, it's in our mind a significant achievement that we now have this predictability of the installation because that takes one of the big hurdles to recognize revenue in the same way as the EUV way.
首先是遞延收入。首先,我們認為現在擁有這種安裝可預測性是一項重大成就,因為這消除了以與 EUV 相同的方式確認收入的一大障礙。
So we basically have two elements. We have the shipment, and then we have certain fulfillments criteria that we have to achieve later on.
所以我們基本上有兩個要素。我們有貨物,然後我們必須滿足某些履行標準。
So in this particular case with the 3350, you know what the price of that tool is. It's in the mid EUR90 millions, so you can do the math what we're going to recognize for that tool in 2017, I guess.
因此,在 3350 這個特殊情況下,您知道該工具的價格是多少。它的價值在 9000 萬歐元左右,所以我想你可以算一下我們在 2017 年將為該工具實現多少收益。
Performance criteria is linked to the targets that Peter mentioned in his remarks, so as we are achieving these, you should expect us in the next year, 2017, to also recognize that part closer to shipment.
績效標準與彼得在演講中提到的目標相關,因此,當我們實現這些目標時,您應該期望我們在明年,即 2017 年,也能在接近發貨時認識到這一部分。
So also in Peter's remarks, already we said that for the 2017 shipments we'll recognize the majority. And I have to tell you it's a little bit different customer by customer, but it is the majority, as you have just seen from this 3350.
因此,在彼得的發言中,我們已經說過,對於 2017 年的出貨量,我們將確認大部分。我必須告訴您,每個客戶的情況都略有不同,但大多數情況都是如此,正如您從這台 3350 中看到的那樣。
We will be not only able to recognize the majority of revenue closer to the shipment, but we will also have catch-up from this year's shipment. So we shipped units for instance in the first half of the year that will see no revenue in 2016, so you'll see catch-up there.
我們不僅能夠在接近出貨時確認大部分收入,還能彌補今年出貨量帶來的損失。例如,我們在今年上半年出貨的單位在 2016 年不會產生任何收入,所以你會看到追趕的情況。
So very pleased with that. In the meantime, well, we're working through the last couple of bumps there to get to the DUV-like revenue recognition. We will update you on a quarterly basis on what the revenue will look like. Just like we did it for Q4, we have one system at EUR60 million, but then we have deferred revenue coming in at an additional EUR80 million.
我對此非常高興。同時,我們正在努力克服最後幾個困難,以實現類似 DUV 的收入確認。我們將每季向您通報收入狀況。就像我們在第四季所做的那樣,我們有一個價值 6000 萬歐元的系統,但我們還有額外的 8000 萬歐元的遞延收入。
As it relates to the gross margin, a couple of points there.
就毛利率而言,有幾點需要注意。
First of all, the objective is clear. By 2020, we want to be at 40% gross margin. If you pair that with our other businesses, DUV where we're somewhere in the 50% range, and holistic lithography where we're north of 70%, and then our [CLS] business, that's the Siemer service business which is also in the mid 50% or so, you can see that that gets us to the 50%.
首先,目標明確。到 2020 年,我們希望毛利率達到 40%。如果將其與我們的其他業務結合起來,DUV 業務的佔比在 50% 左右,整體光刻業務的佔比在 70% 以上,然後是我們的 [CLS] 業務,也就是 Siemer 服務業務,佔比也在 50% 左右,你可以看到,這使我們的佔比達到了 50%。
On a standard cost basis, we are very close to where we want to be right now. You can impute that from the information we gave you that the one shipment that we recognized last quarter had a 1.4% dilutive effect. If you do the math, you'll figure out it's somewhere in the mid teens percentage-wise, and that's not full revenue.
以標準成本計算,我們已經非常接近目前想要達到的目標。根據我們提供的信息,您可以推斷我們上個季度確認的一批貨物具有 1.4% 的稀釋效應。如果你算一下,你會發現從百分比來看,這個數字大約在十幾個百分點點左右,但這並不是全部收入。
So you can see from a standard perspective we're doing okay, but of course, we're shipping only a few systems this year. If you look at the total EUV business isolated from one machine, you have to take several other considerations.
因此,從標準角度來看,我們做得還不錯,但當然,今年我們只推出了少數系統。如果從一台機器來看整個 EUV 業務,則必須考慮其他幾個因素。
Number 1, we have the infrastructure to build many more systems. So we have cost of under-absorption. We have a service model where eventually we will charge per wafer, per good wafer out. We provide the service already, but there's not many good wafers out, so you can imagine that this is a very significant loss business for us right now.
第一,我們擁有建造更多系統的基礎設施。因此,我們有吸收不足的成本。我們有一個服務模式,最終我們將按每個晶圓、每個合格晶圓收費。我們已經提供這項服務,但是還沒有太多優質的晶圓,所以你可以想像這對我們來說現在是一項非常重大的虧損業務。
The learning curve; we're still working on cost, not only internally but also with our suppliers.
學習曲線;我們仍在努力降低成本,不僅在內部,還與我們的供應商合作。
And then there are other areas like we still have to go out in the field and bring these systems that we shipped up to the latest standard, which is also work that we need to perform that is unpaid.
然後還有其他領域,例如我們仍然需要去現場並將我們運送的這些系統升級到最新標準,這也是我們需要執行的無償工作。
And lastly, we have, of course, shipped this year mainly -- shipped and will ship 3350s and 3300s, and then going -- starting next year, we'll have 3400s which come at a higher ASP.
最後,我們今年主要出貨,並將出貨 3350 和 3300,然後從明年開始,我們將推出平均售價更高的 3400。
So if you take this all into consideration and you look at the overall EUV business, it is still a significantly negative gross margin for us, but the standard is approaching where we need it to be, and with the volume coming in, it really depends on volume and learning curve. And we believe based on what we see in backlog and based on what we hear from our customers, TSMC for instance, was very explicit about their EUV plans going forward. And Peter mentioned the ramp will be in 2018/2019. We believe we can get to that 40% that gets the Company to 50%.
因此,如果將所有這些都考慮在內,並看一下整個 EUV 業務,那麼對於我們來說,這仍然是一個顯著的負毛利率,但標準正在接近我們需要的水平,並且隨著產量的增加,它實際上取決於產量和學習曲線。我們相信,根據我們所看到的積壓情況以及從客戶那裡聽到的消息,台積電等公司對其未來的 EUV 計劃非常明確。 Peter 提到該坡道將於 2018/2019 年建成。我們相信我們可以達到那 40%,使公司達到 50%。
I hope that was not too much detail, but you asked, so --
我希望這不是太詳細,但你問了,所以——
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
(laughter). No, that was fantastic. I greatly appreciate the detail. And I guess there was multi parts to it, but if I could sneak in a quick second one.
(笑聲)。不,那真是太棒了。我非常欣賞這些細節。我想它是由多個部分組成的,但如果我可以快速地偷偷地加入第二個部分的話。
On the foundry logic side, your [emergent] shipments are going to grow probably 60% year on year this year. I'm just curious. Clearly, 7-nanometer will be a meaningful node, but is that sort of shipment level sustainable? And as part of that, as you think through calendar 2017, how do you think about linearity of spend?
在代工邏輯方面,今年你們的[新興]出貨量可能會年增 60%。我只是好奇。顯然,7奈米將是一個有意義的節點,但這種出貨量水準可持續嗎?作為其中的一部分,當您思考 2017 年日曆時,您如何看待支出的線性?
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes, C.J. I think, like I said in my introductory statement, it's too early for us. You will understand that to be quantitative on 2017 is not possible. But we do have very clear discussions with our customers on their requirements for 2017, and we do our own market forecast and simulations, and we corroborate the two. And the way we're looking at today is that we believe that the logic ramp will continue as strongly as we've seen in 2016, also in 2017.
是的,C.J. 我認為,就像我在開場白中所說的那樣,現在對我們來說還為時過早。你會明白,對 2017 年進行量化是不可能的。但我們確實與客戶就他們 2017 年的需求進行了非常明確的討論,並且我們進行了自己的市場預測和模擬,並證實了這兩者。我們今天的看法是,我們相信邏輯上升趨勢將像 2016 年和 2017 年一樣繼續強勁。
Memory, given the wafer capacity situation and what we hear from customers, that we believe the memory business will be at least at the same level, if not slightly up. And I think on the services and options and upgrade business, I think we will grow next year.
內存,考慮到晶圓產能情況以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息,我們相信內存業務至少會保持在同一水平,甚至略有上升。我認為,就服務、選項和升級業務而言,我們明年將會成長。
So I think [going to be] from a quantitative point of view very difficult for us to see -- let's leave EUV a bit to the side -- that on the rest of the business that 2017 would be a lower year than 2016. Very difficult for us to see that, because logic strong; memory is at least as good, perhaps slightly up; and we have a service and option and upgrade business that will be up.
因此我認為,從定量的角度來看,我們很難看出——先把 EUV 放在一邊——其他業務的 2017 年業績會低於 2016 年。我們很難看出這一點,因為邏輯很強;記憶力至少一樣好,甚至可能略有提升;我們還有即將推出的服務、選項和升級業務。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Very helpful. Thank you.
非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Kai Korschelt.
凱·科舍爾特。
Kai Korschelt - Analyst
Kai Korschelt - Analyst
Bank of America. I just had a follow-up on the EUV adoption question earlier, and I think you had said it's obviously an ongoing process and there is not -- there's probably not going to be the moment where your customers just flick on a switch in their minds and say we're going to go for it.
美國銀行。我剛剛對 EUV 採用問題進行了跟進,我想您已經說過這顯然是一個持續的過程,而且可能不會出現這樣的時刻,您的客戶只需在腦海中輕輕一按,就說我們要去做。
But I'm just wondering in terms of maybe on the availability targets which seems to be the main criteria. You obviously said 90% is the key level, but I guess the question that we all have, how long is that 90% availability? How long do the tools need to deliver that availability? Is it a couple of months? Is it six months? Because I think you have mentioned you achieved it for about a month now with an old tool. So I'm just wondering how close are we to that potentially critical availability level.
但我只是想知道可用性目標是否是主要標準。您顯然說過 90% 是關鍵水平,但我想我們都有一個問題,即 90% 的可用性能維持多久?這些工具需要多長時間才能實現這種可用性?是幾個月嗎?是六個月嗎?因為我認為您已經提到過,您使用舊工具大約一個月就實現了這一目標。所以我只是想知道我們距離那個潛在的關鍵可用性水平還有多遠。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. I think we've said in the past 85% is probably the threshold where the customers are going to say, fine, let's go. But it's about the predictability. So when we talk about 85% it is 85%. It is not [for a] day, it's not for a months. It is with the constant use of the tool versus 85% availability of your installed base.
是的。我想我們過去曾說過,85% 可能是客戶會說「好吧,我們走吧」的門檻。但這與可預測性有關。所以當我們說 85% 時,它就是 85%。這不是一天,也不是幾個月。這是因為該工具不斷使用,而安裝基礎的可用性僅為 85%。
So that is what it is today. For instance, we are talking with [DUV]; we are talking about availability percentages of way over 90%. And that's for the entire installed base. That's not over a week, not over a 13-week period. It is maybe ever.
這就是今天的情況。例如,我們正在與 [DUV] 進行交談;我們討論的是超過 90% 的可用性百分比。這是針對整個安裝基礎而言的。這還不到一周,也還不到十三週。或許永遠都是這樣。
Now that is -- that's a very clear target, and you see where we are today, 2016, and where we will be in two years' time. We believe that having seen the levels of availability and the capability of individual tools in the field -- not the entire installed base yet -- and looking at the projects and the programs that we will execute on, because we know what to do, that given the fact that we can show that availability over a really prolonged period -- it's not days, it's weeks and in effect months -- then we believe that we can get there at 2018/2019 when we start shipping them in volume.
現在,這是一個非常明確的目標,您可以看到我們今天、2016 年所處的位置,以及兩年後我們將處於的位置。我們相信,在了解了現場單一工具的可用性和能力水平(尚未涵蓋整個安裝基礎)並研究了將要執行的項目和程序之後,因為我們知道該怎麼做,鑑於我們可以在很長一段時間內(不是幾天,而是幾週,實際上是幾個月)展示可用性,那麼我們相信,當我們開始批量出貨時,我們可以在 2018/2019 年達到這一目標。
And that will happen over time. If you look at the number of programs and projects that we are running to get to that level, there are dozens, and they all need to be executed one by one and every one will actually go and contribute to a percentage point of increase, or several percentage points of increase in that availability.
隨著時間的推移,這種情況將會發生。如果你看一下我們為達到這一水平而運行的程式和專案的數量,你會發現有幾十個,它們都需要逐一執行,而且每一個實際上都會對可用性的提高做出一個百分點或幾個百分點的貢獻。
So it's going to be an ongoing thing like it was an ongoing thing coming from 30% to where we are today. It's a continuous process together with our customers, but with a very clear roadmap.
所以這將是一個持續的過程,就像從 30% 到今天的水平一樣。這是一個與我們的客戶共同進行的持續過程,但有一個非常清晰的路線圖。
Kai Korschelt - Analyst
Kai Korschelt - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri.
蒂莫西·阿庫裡。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Cowan & Company. I had two, I guess. First of all, Wolfgang, I'm still trying to understand margins on EUV. I think we had previously been talking about needing 20 to 25 systems a year to get to roughly 40% margin. And then I think now that's going to maybe having to ship 40 systems to get to 40% gross margin. So you're certainly making progress, but it seems like the supply chain is beginning to hold you back.
考恩公司。我想我有兩個。首先,沃夫岡,我仍在嘗試了解 EUV 的利潤率。我認為我們之前曾討論過每年需要 20 到 25 個系統才能達到大約 40% 的利潤率。然後我認為現在可能需要運送 40 個系統才能達到 40% 的毛利率。所以你肯定取得了進展,但供應鏈似乎開始阻礙你。
So I guess my question is really around your need to subsidize the -- your suppliers, because certainly, your customers wrote you checks, but it seems like maybe you have to write your suppliers checks and what the impact that could have on margins.
所以我想我的問題實際上是關於你是否需要補貼你的供應商,因為你的客戶肯定會給你開支票,但似乎你可能必須給你的供應商開支票,這會對利潤產生什麼影響。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Okay. So, Tim, let me [go there].
好的。那麼,提姆,讓我[去那裡]。
So one think I can tell you clearly, there is no additional [costs] coming in from increased prices of suppliers. Yes, it's true that we have supported suppliers with certain prepayments, but those are basically financing transactions. That's nothing to do with gross margin and the P&L.
因此我可以明確地告訴你,供應商價格上漲不會帶來任何額外成本。是的,我們確實透過一定的預付款支持了供應商,但這些基本上是融資交易。這與毛利率和損益表無關。
You are also right in a sense that volume clearly is the biggest contributor to the overall gross margin. You can -- I think you have been here; you can look at the factory, it's there. And if you only ship three or four units, those units have to carry the burden of that entire infrastructure, including the management that's in there and the quality systems and everything that's in there.
從某種意義上來說,您說得也對,銷售量顯然是整體毛利率的最大貢獻者。你可以--我想你來過這裡;你可以去看看工廠,它就在那裡。如果你只運送三到四個單位,這些單位就必須承擔整個基礎設施的負擔,包括其中的管理、品質系統和其中的一切。
So in that sense, volume is clearly the greatest driver to get to the gross margin. And there was a bit of a debate in last quarter call; well, can you pinpoint it to an exact number? It's difficult, because I can tell you we could ship 50 systems. If we don't make any progress on the learning curve and our customers we may not achieve the 40%. But reversely, we can be at 25 systems and we're making good profits on the learning and we'll be at the target earlier.
因此從這個意義上來說,銷量顯然是實現毛利率的最大驅動力。上個季度的電話會議上出現了一些爭論;那麼,您能確定一個確切的數字嗎?這很困難,因為我可以告訴你我們可以運送 50 個系統。如果我們在學習曲線和客戶方面沒有任何進展,我們可能無法達到 40%。但相反,我們可以擁有 25 個系統,並且在學習中獲得了良好的利潤,並且我們將更早達到目標。
So I don't want to link it to a specific volume, but it's very clear volume is the biggest contributor to getting to that 40% gross margin.
所以我不想將其與特定數量聯繫起來,但很明顯數量是實現 40% 毛利率的最大貢獻者。
I hope that helps, Tim.
我希望這能有所幫助,蒂姆。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Yes. Thanks. It does.
是的。謝謝。確實如此。
I guess just as a last follow-up, Wolfgang, can you normalize the guidance if you strip out both of the effects of EUV? What is the gross margin in the fourth quarter minus the effect of EUV?
我想作為最後的後續問題,沃爾夫岡,如果去除 EUV 的兩種影響,您能否使指導標準化?扣除 EUV 的影響,第四季的毛利率是多少?
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
It's a roughly 2.5 point impact. So if you take 47.5%, in the midpoint of our guidance, we would be somewhere in the -- just above 45%, which is in line with what we have done before; actually, a little bit higher because the field options and services are driven up this quarter, and a lot of it is options. So we will be over 45% without EUV.
這大約是 2.5 分的影響。因此,如果取 47.5%(即我們指導的中間值),我們將處於 45% 左右的某個位置,這與我們之前所做的一致;實際上,這個數字略高一些,因為本季度現場選項和服務有所增加,其中許多都是選項。因此,如果沒有 EUV,我們的效率將超過 45%。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Gardiner.
安德魯加德納。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Barclays. I just had another one on EUV. Peter, you reiterated the expectation of the 12 units plus the additional two that slipped, but 12 units next year being manufactured; doubling in 2018; doubling again in 2019. And I can see what you're saying in terms of the 2017 shipments being supported by the current backlog. But I'm just --
巴克萊銀行。我剛剛又在 EUV 上看到一個。彼得,你重申了 12 台的預期,加上另外兩台下滑的產量,但明年將生產 12 台; 2018 年翻一番; 2019 年將再次翻一番。我明白您所說的 2017 年的出貨量受到當前積壓訂單的支持。但我只是——
You've given us that, but obviously, we always want more, so I'm interested in starting to think about 2018 and when we might need to see orders start to come in. So where are lead times at the moment? When would you need customers to start committing?
您已經給了我們這些,但顯然,我們總是想要更多,所以我有興趣開始考慮 2018 年以及我們什麼時候可能需要看到訂單開始進來。那麼目前的交貨時間是多少?什麼時候需要客戶開始承諾?
I suppose another part of that would be the big volume purchase order made by Intel in the second quarter last year. Clearly, you've got that hanging around there. It's outside -- I think still out of the official backlog, but presumably starts to step in at some point over the next year because some of those tools will be destined for 2018. So any insight you can provide on some of those moving parts would be very helpful.
我想另一部分原因可能是英特爾去年第二季發出的大量採購訂單。顯然,你已經把它掛在那裡了。它還在外面——我認為它仍然不在官方積壓名單中,但大概會在明年的某個時候開始介入,因為其中一些工具將在 2018 年推出。因此,您能就這些活動部件提供的任何見解都將非常有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. I think clearly, like Wolfgang said, by the end of the year, I think we have in the backlog at least the 2017 output secured to orders. But also, I think what we are seeing is that the next two quarters or so we will see also the first orders for 2018 coming in filling that up. Because doubling in 2018 with the lead times that we currently have means that we need to start booking those orders as we speak, and that is also exactly the activity of our sales force as we speak with our major customers.
是的。我認為,就像沃爾夫岡所說的那樣,到今年年底,我們的積壓訂單中至少有 2017 年的產量可以保證。但同時,我認為我們看到的是,在接下來的兩個季度左右,我們也將看到 2018 年的首批訂單到來。因為 2018 年我們目前的交貨時間將翻一番,這意味著我們需要立即開始預訂這些訂單,這也正是我們銷售團隊在與主要客戶交談時的活動。
Now having said that, because these are volume shipments, it should not be a surprise to you and to others that we are in deep discussions with volume purchase agreements with those key customers as we speak. And I think the orders will be a subset, or will be, let's say, an integral part of those volume purchase agreements, so-called VPAs. And that's happening as we speak.
話雖如此,因為這些都是批量出貨,所以對於您和其他人來說,我們正在與這些關鍵客戶就批量購買協議進行深入討論,這應該不會感到驚訝。我認為這些訂單將是批量採購協議(即所謂的 VPA)的子集,或者說是其中不可或缺的一部分。而這正是我們說話時正在發生的事情。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Can I chime in for a second with a correction, Tim, for your question? I just got my calculator out. I misunderstood your question, I believe.
提姆,我可以稍微修正一下你的問題嗎?我剛剛拿出計算機。我認為我誤解了你的問題。
What I quoted to you was just taking the deferred revenue out, but then, of course you need to take the 3300 out as well. So if you take both aspects of EUV out, we would be more like 46.5%, or something like that. And that's the increase that's driven by the increase in field options.
我給你報價只是扣除遞延收入,但是,當然你還需要扣除 3300。因此,如果將 EUV 的兩個面向都去除,我們的佔比將更接近 46.5% 或類似的數字。這是由現場選項的增加所推動的成長。
I hope that is clear. I wanted to make sure that you have the full EUV effect because I think that's what you had asked me.
我希望這是清楚的。我想確保您擁有完整的 EUV 效果,因為我認為這就是您問我的。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. I think that this was an addition to the question that [Tim asked earlier] (multiple speakers).
是的。我認為這是對 [Tim 之前提出的] (多位發言者) 問題的補充。
Do we have [understand] or --?
我們有[明白]或--嗎?
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
So, Peter, so you are suggesting that we can anticipate perhaps a mix of ones and twos of orders, but also for some of the bigger customers you anticipate a similar type of announcement to that which we had from Intel in the second quarter last year?
那麼,彼得,您的意思是,我們可以預期可能會有一批或兩批訂單,但對於一些較大的客戶,您是否預計會有類似於去年第二季英特爾發布的公告?
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. I think that's normally how we work, which is not typical for EUV. It's typical for [DUV] and our other businesses also.
是的。我認為這是我們的正常工作方式,但對於 EUV 來說這並不常見。這對於 [DUV] 和我們的其他業務來說也很常見。
We are actually -- have these volume purchase agreements over a longer period of time. Could be years, could be [a node], could be 18 months. It depends on the customer, where basically we say at this particular volume these are the conditions, the terms and conditions under which we will ship.
我們實際上已經在較長時期內簽訂了這些批量採購協議。可能是幾年,可能是[一個節點],可能是 18 個月。這取決於客戶,基本上我們會說在這個特定數量下,這些是我們發貨的條件、條款和條件。
That's also true for EUV. And for ones-es and twos-es, you don't need volume purchase agreements. Let that be clear. But for volume you need volume purchase agreements because that has an impact on pricing and customers would like to see that impact.
對於 EUV 來說也是如此。對於一元和二元,您不需要大量購買協議。讓這一點明確起來。但對於大量購買,您需要大量購買協議,因為這會影響定價,而客戶希望看到這種影響。
So this is also not a surprise that we are in deep discussions as we speak on those volume purchase agreements, which will be the trigger, you could say, which will be the umbrella under which the individual POs will be issued.
因此,我們在深入討論這些批量採購協議時並不奇怪,這些協議將成為觸發因素,可以說,將成為簽發單一採購訂單的保護傘。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Okay. That's great. Thanks very much.
好的。那太棒了。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Gareth Jenkins.
加雷斯·詹金斯。
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Just one quick one from me on the co-investment plan. I wondered. You've helpfully reiterated the EUR10 billion revenue target and the tripling of EPS, but could you talk about the OpEx in between and what your expectations are when the co-investment plan comes to an end? Do you think you'll roll this forward, or will you subsume the OpEx that you're currently enjoying the benefits from your peers? Thanks. Or customers, I should say.
我只想簡單談談共同投資計畫。我感到疑惑。您曾有益地重申了 100 億歐元的收入目標和每股收益增加三倍的目標,但您能否談談這段期間的營運支出以及共同投資計畫結束時您的預期是什麼?您認為您會繼續推動這項舉措嗎?還是您會吸收目前從同行獲得的營運支出收益?謝謝。或者我應該說是顧客。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Yes. Again, we will talk in more detail in one and a half weeks from now, but we continue to forecast about 13% of revenue for R&D, and that does not assume a continuation of the customer co-investment plan.
是的。再次,我們將在一周半後進行更詳細的討論,但我們仍然預測約 13% 的收入將用於研發,並且這並不意味著客戶共同投資計畫會繼續下去。
Having said that, it also doesn't really hit OpEx in terms of R&D. It's actually in gross margin part of it is other income and part of it is a balance sheet straight into equity transaction. So it doesn't impact R&D, but we have not modeled a continuation of that plan.
話雖如此,但它對研發方面的營運支出並沒有太大影響。實際上,毛利率的一部分是其他收入,一部分是直接進入股權交易的資產負債表。因此它不會影響研發,但我們還沒有為該計劃的延續制定模型。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
If I may, Wolfgang, just refreshing memory, this customer co-investment program was specifically made to support ASML in the, let's say, double investment time of let's say about five years where we had to invest in [leading SDPV] but also had to invest in EUV, and initially we thought it could have been [for 50].
如果可以的話,沃夫岡,我只是想提醒一下,這個客戶共同投資計劃是專門為支持 ASML 而製定的,比如說,在大約五年的雙倍投資時間內,我們必須投資於(領先的 SDPV),但也必須投資於 EUV,最初我們認為它可以是 [50]。
Now when you look at when that ends, it will end in the next of year, and when you look at when you start ramping in volume, well, our plan is doubling the [12] in 2018. And bearing in mind the discussion that we had on the very significant impact that volume has on EUV margins by that time where we're in 2018, there will be margin inflow to actually pay for the R&D money that we need to spend for EUV going forward.
現在看看這個結束時間,它會在明年結束,當你開始增加產量時,我們的計劃是在 2018 年將 [12] 的數量翻一番。考慮到我們之前討論過產量對 EUV 利潤率的重大影響,到 2018 年,會有利潤流入,實際上支付我們未來需要為 EUV 花費的研發資金。
So I think it's almost like a perfect match in a sense when the CCIP tails off and our EUV business, for which this CCIP was intended, actually takes off. So it was well planned, well timed.
因此,我認為,從某種意義上說,當 CCIP 逐漸減少,而我們的 EUV 業務(CCIP 的目標業務)真正起飛時,這幾乎是完美的匹配。所以這是經過精心策劃、時機恰當的。
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Great. And can I just do one follow-up on Hermes? I understand you've just got two approvals left. But could you talk about your aspirations in terms of market share for the combined product with HMI?
偉大的。我可以對 Hermes 做一次跟進嗎?我知道您只剩下兩項批准了。但是您能談談您對 HMI 組合產品的市場份額的期望嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
We always have aspirations to drive market share up, but that in itself is not a goal. It is a result. We are focusing really with the HMI acquisition to combine the competences of the two companies and create something which from a value point of view is not available in the market today.
我們始終渴望提高市場份額,但這本身並不是目標。這是一個結果。我們真正關注的是 HMI 收購,以結合兩家公司的能力並創造出從價值角度來看目前市場上還沒有的產品。
So it effectively means we are looking for industrial product synergy and this is the reason for the acquisition. You could argue that the product that we are focusing on, or that we're envisaging, is a product that does not exist today.
所以這實際上意味著我們正在尋求工業產品協同效應,這就是收購的原因。您可能會說,我們所關注的產品或我們所設想的產品是目前尚不存在的產品。
So in that sense, call it a dream, but I think we think it's a little bit more than a dream. I think it is doable. It is executable. But it is something that is not available today.
從這個意義上來說,你可以稱之為夢想,但我認為我們認為它不僅僅是一個夢想。我認為這是可行的。它是可執行的。但如今它已經不再存在了。
Now how much of that will be valued by our customer base as being high value remains to be seen. We have high hopes but we do believe that in this new product combination we will create significant value for our customers to control their yields and their patterning costs, and this is what we are focusing on.
現在,我們的客戶群將如何評價其中的高價值還有待觀察。我們寄予厚望,但我們確實相信,透過這種新的產品組合,我們將為客戶創造巨大的價值,以控制他們的產量和圖案成本,而這正是我們所關注的。
And when we're successful, we'll grow market share. Where we're not successful, then we'll be sorry, but it's not what we expect.
當我們成功時,我們的市場佔有率就會擴大。如果我們沒有成功,我們就會感到遺憾,但這並不是我們所期望的。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
And then while we cannot express it that well in market share, to Peter's point, we're planning in two weeks when we meet in New York for the Investor Day to at least give you a sizing of what we expect business-wise in terms of revenue of these new products by 2020.
雖然我們無法在市場份額方面很好地表達這一點,但正如彼得所說,我們計劃在兩週後於紐約舉行的投資者日會議上至少向您介紹我們對 2020 年這些新產品的收入在業務方面的預期。
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Gareth Jenkins - Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Ho.
何志強。
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Stifel Nicolaus. First on the EUV side, you've talked about the percentages and the increases there over the short period of time, but what are, I guess, some of the remaining key variables that will get you more consistently at that 90% level for an extended period of time? What are some of the final things that you need to do to get past that metric point?
斯蒂費爾·尼古拉斯。首先,在 EUV 方面,您談到了百分比以及短期內的增加,但我猜想,還有哪些關鍵變數可以讓您在較長時間內更穩定地保持 90% 的水平?為了超越該指標點,您最後還需要做哪些事情?
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. These things are basically looking at the -- as you know, and I suppose that you know, that the EUV plasma is created by using a high-power CO2 laser. So it's in fact the continued laser stability, which is a program that we're running with our supplier Trumpf in the south of Germany.
是的。這些東西基本上都是關於——正如你所知,我想你也知道,EUV 等離子體是使用高功率 CO2 雷射產生的。因此,這實際上是持續的雷射穩定性,這是我們與德國南部的供應商 Trumpf 合作運行的一個項目。
A second point is the tin management in the vessel which basically we need to contain any contamination coming out of tin distribution over time, and we have several programs running there.
第二點是容器內的錫管理,基本上我們需要控制錫分佈過程中產生的任何污染,並且我們在那裡運行了幾個程式。
So I would summarize it as those two. So it's tin management in the vessel and it's the stability of the drive laser. And that's a drive laser to basically create the EUV plasma out of tin.
所以我會總結為這兩個。因此,它是容器中的錫管理,也是驅動雷射的穩定性。這是一種驅動雷射器,基本上可以用錫來產生 EUV 等離子體。
And those are [this whole slew] of smaller projects and some bigger projects that we are running with our customer base and with our supply base, but those are very well defined.
這些都是我們與客戶群和供應商群共同開展的一系列小型項目和一些大型項目,但這些項目的定義非常明確。
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Great. That was really helpful. And my follow-up question in terms of your core business.
偉大的。這真的很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於您的核心業務。
As the DRAM industry migrates to the 1X-nanometer node, how do you see capital intensity rising for lithography given the more patterning stuffs that are going to be involved?
隨著 DRAM 產業遷移到 1X 奈米節點,考慮到將涉及更多的圖案化材料,您如何看待光刻技術的資本密集度上升?
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
It's a good question. We've seen the introduction of first multiple patterning in DRAM because of that. That's one. But I think when you talk about 1X, let's say the mid-node 1X, we see the introduction of EUV being planned because of the complexities that come with the patterning strategies at that level. And using [DPV] is simply deemed not possible and EUV is the way to go.
這是個好問題。正是由於這一點,我們才看到了 DRAM 中首次引入多重圖案化技術。那是一個。但我認為,當您談論 1X 時,例如中間節點 1X,我們會看到計劃引入 EUV,因為該層級的圖案化策略具有複雜性。而使用 [DPV] 被認為是不可能的,而 EUV 才是可行的方法。
So, yes. Litho intensity will -- when we get to 1X will go up, but largely in the 1X node and 1 bit node starting you'll see the introduction of [EUV].
是的。當我們達到 1X 時,光刻強度將會上升,但主要是在 1X 節點和 1 位元節點開始時,你會看到 [EUV] 的引入。
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Patrick Ho - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Amit Ramchandani.
阿米特·拉姆錢達尼。
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Citigroup, London. My first question is really with respect to the demand evolution for emerging tools. You've talked about strength from the 10-nanometer. You've touched upon memory. Could you maybe give us granular insight into how does that break down between DRAM and NAND, and whether the lead times for your tools have any role to play in terms of how you're seeing the orders shaping up for you?
花旗集團,倫敦。我的第一個問題其實是關於新興工具的需求演變。您談到了 10 奈米的強度。您已經觸及記憶。您能否向我們詳細介紹 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的區別,以及您的工具的交付週期是否對您看到的訂單情況有任何影響?
You talked about a pickup in Q4. You talked about memory being slightly higher next year. So I was wondering if you would share some more granularity in terms of DRAM and NAND, and how you think that shapes up in Q4 and beyond.
您談到了第四季的回升。您談到明年的記憶體會稍微高一些。所以我想知道您是否願意分享一些有關 DRAM 和 NAND 的詳細信息,以及您認為它們在第四季度及以後會如何發展。
That would be my first question.
這是我的第一個問題。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Like I said, we've given you some qualitative indications. Wolfgang said in his introductory comment that we see memory shipments going up in Q4 as compared to Q3. And if you look at the total year 2016, we believe that memory shipments based on the installed wafer capacity and the customer demand and the bit growth assumption that we currently have that memory will be upwards -- will be flat or slightly up next year.
正如我所說的,我們已經給了你一些定性的跡象。沃夫岡在他的開場白中表示,我們發現第四季的記憶體出貨量與第三季相比有所上升。如果你看一下 2016 年全年,我們相信,基於安裝的晶圓容量和客戶需求以及我們目前的位元成長假設,記憶體出貨量將會上升 - 明年將持平或略有上升。
Now the split or the granularity that you're asking for between -- in DRAM and NAND is a bit difficult, because what we're seeing very much is that the DRAM tools, currently leading DRAM tools, are relocated to NAND. And then basically, NAND litho is then growing in terms of installed base. But then we ship to DRAM to replace the relocated tool that went to the NAND factory.
現在,您所要求的 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的分割或粒度有點困難,因為我們看到的是 DRAM 工具(目前領先的 DRAM 工具)已遷移到 NAND。基本上,NAND 光刻在安裝基數方面正在增長。但隨後我們將其運送至 DRAM 工廠,以替換運往 NAND 工廠的重新安置工具。
So it looks like a DRAM shipment, but in fact it's a NAND shipment. So this is all why we basically combined this into -- memory is very difficult to give you a detailed breakdown of what is DRAM capacity growth or NAND capacity growth. There's a lot of relocation going on between the two memory sectors.
因此它看起來像是 DRAM 出貨,但實際上它是 NAND 出貨。所以這就是為什麼我們基本上將其合併到記憶體中,很難為您提供有關 DRAM 容量增長或 NAND 容量增長的詳細分類。兩個記憶體磁區之間發生了大量的重新定位。
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
And as it relates to the lead time, we have about a six-month lead time. Also, I want to remind you again that even though you may not see the order in the order book, we have VPAs, volume purchasing agreements, with all of these customers where they also regularly provide us with sales forecasts. So we're prepared with some variation to whatever the demand is going to be in 2017.
就交貨時間而言,我們的交貨時間約為六個月。此外,我想再次提醒您,即使您可能在訂單簿中看不到訂單,但我們與所有這些客戶都簽訂了 VPA(批量採購協議),他們也會定期向我們提供銷售預測。因此,我們已經做好了應對 2017 年需求變化的準備。
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Thank you. And maybe as a quick unrelated follow-up, with respect to your service and field option sales, the idea was to get to, I think, 10% growth year on year this year. Seems like you need a strong Q4 well above [600] to get there.
謝謝。也許作為一個快速的無關的後續問題,關於您的服務和現場選項銷售,我認為我們的想法是今年實現同比增長 10%。看來你需要一個遠高於 [600] 的強勁 Q4 才能實現這一目標。
And even beyond that, I appreciate you'll give us the roadmap in two weeks' time, but should we expect more of a linear trajectory going forward? Is that still the best way to model it? And how does reuse come into all of this?
除此之外,我很感激您能在兩週後為我們提供路線圖,但我們是否應該期待未來的發展軌跡會更加線性?這仍然是建模的最佳方法嗎?那麼,重複使用在這一切中扮演什麼角色呢?
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Okay. Good question. First of all, Amit, correct. You did the math, apparently. If you get to 10%, you need [650]. We have said that we'll be over 600 so we'll be anywhere between 7% and 10%. We'll see how that goes.
好的。好問題。首先,阿米特,正確。顯然你已經算過了。如果達到 10%,則需要 [650]。我們說過,我們的人數將超過 600 人,因此佔比將在 7% 到 10% 之間。我們將看看事情進展如何。
In terms of the makeup, a little bit less than half of this is service, and in general, if you take the full year, and that is fairly predictable. You know what your installed base is and what the contracts are, and that's a pretty steady state, nicely growing business for us.
就構成而言,其中略少於一半的是服務,一般來說,如果以全年來看,這是相當可預測的。您知道您的安裝基礎是什麼以及合約是什麼,這對我們來說是一個相當穩定的狀態,業務成長良好。
Options have two portions to it. There are the upgrades, and the upgrades need to be somewhat linear because you've got to have the teams that perform the upgrades. So we need to schedule those, and these will be growing over time, but it will be more like a linear growth.
選項有兩個部分。有升級,而且升級需要有一定的線性,因為你必須有執行升級的團隊。所以我們需要對這些進行安排,這些將隨著時間的推移而增長,但它更像是一種線性增長。
But then you have various options, and increasingly with holistic lithography software options that can be deployed at relatively short notice, and that's the difference that you see in a quarter that we have [ended] it now, and there you can see that you have one quarter that's stronger than the other.
但是,你有各種各樣的選擇,而且越來越多的整體光刻軟體選項可以在相對較短的時間內部署,這就是你在我們已經結束的一個季度中看到的區別,你可以看到一個季度比另一個季度更強。
So a strong business for us. I think that you'll see that we -- whether it's 7% or 10%, we'll be over EUR2.1 billion/EUR2.2 billion this year, which is close to one-third of our business. And when we're talking in 2020 and when we talk in two weeks at our Investor Day, you'll see that it will also continue to grow strong. I think you'll see that business well over EUR3 billion by 2020.
所以這對我們來說是一筆強勁的業務。我想你會看到,無論是 7% 還是 10%,今年我們的收入都將超過 21 億歐元/22 億歐元,這接近我們業務的三分之一。當我們談論 2020 年以及兩週後的投資者日時,您會發現它也將繼續強勁成長。我認為到 2020 年該業務的規模將超過 30 億歐元。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
And perhaps, Amit, the term reuse is a [container] term. There's so much in there. Let me give you an indication. You could do a reuse by basically saying, okay, I have a [litho] tool in a logic wafer fab and I'm going to add [for the next node] and the next-generation litho tool, but I'm going to reuse some of those tools that are in there for that new node. That is one.
也許,阿米特,術語“重用”是一個[容器]術語。裡面有很多東西。讓我給你一個提示。你可以基本上說「好吧,我在邏輯晶圓廠有一個[光刻]工具,我將添加[用於下一個節點]和下一代光刻工具,但我將重複使用其中的一些用於新節點的工具」來實現重用。那是一個。
Reuse also is relocations. You move from one fab to the other tool to go to a different part. I just gave you the example of memory. Reuse is also I have this tool sitting there which is a leading-edge tool and I'm going to upgrade it to the next level. So actually, that leading-edge tool remain still leading edge tool, but not in the same shape because it has a very significant upgrade that can be anywhere between EUR15 million to EUR35 million.
重用也是重新安置。您從一個晶圓廠移動到另一個工具,以到達不同的部件。我剛才給你舉了記憶的例子。重複使用也是我擁有的這個工具,它是一個前沿工具,我將把它升級到下一個層級。因此實際上,這種尖端工具仍然是尖端工具,但形狀不同,因為它有一個非常顯著的升級,升級成本可能在 1500 萬歐元到 3500 萬歐元之間。
So it's a heterogeneous container term that you have to be careful with using in more general terms.
因此,它是一個異質容器術語,在更通用的術語中使用它時必須小心。
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
That's very helpful. Thank you, gentlemen.
這非常有幫助。謝謝各位。
Operator
Operator
Farhan Ahmad.
法爾漢·艾哈邁德。
Farhan Ahmad - Analyst
Farhan Ahmad - Analyst
Credit Suisse. My first question is on EUV. You guys have been making very good progress on EUV, but some of the challenges it seems like are outside of what you guys do and more in the bucket of what your customers are doing. So I just want to get your perspective on three things that have come up from one of your customers as a challenge.
瑞士信貸。我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 的。你們在 EUV 方面取得了非常好的進展,但有些挑戰似乎超出了你們的工作範圍,而更多的是你們的客戶所做的事情。因此,我只是想聽聽您對一位客戶提出的三個挑戰的看法。
One is on the mask blank inspection. Second is on pellicle. It seems like the transmission is very low, like 30% losses right now; and there is an extra coding that needs to be applied which takes up even more of the [UV] life. And third is on mask inspection, like actinic mask inspection. If UV has to be adopted in high volume and multiple layers, it seems some of your customers are asking for that.
一是掩模版空白檢查。第二是關於薄膜。看起來傳輸率很低,目前損失率為 30%;並且需要應用額外的編碼,這會佔用更多的 [UV] 壽命。第三是光罩檢查,例如光化遮罩檢查。如果必須採用大批量和多層 UV 工藝,那麼似乎您的一些客戶正在要求這樣做。
So I just want to hear your thoughts on how important these challenges are.
所以我只是想聽聽你對這些挑戰的重要性的看法。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Yes. It's a good question. I think they're all important. Mask blank inspection, that needs to happen, clearly, but we have a solution there. I think our partners, (inaudible), start to ship the mask blank inspection tools to actually do that and I think the first tool is in the shipment right now.
是的。這是個好問題。我認為它們都很重要。顯然,需要進行掩模空白檢查,但我們有一個解決方案。我認為我們的合作夥伴(聽不清楚)已經開始運送掩模坯料檢測工具來實際執行此操作,我認為第一個工具現在正在發貨中。
So there are solutions there and they will go to the first customers. I think that's the major issue. And if you asked me, Peter, is there a tool installed right now, no, but it's in shipment, and more will follow.
所以那裡有解決方案,它們將會提供給第一批客戶。我認為這是主要問題。如果你問我,彼得,現在是否安裝了工具,答案是沒有,但它正在發貨,隨後還會有更多。
The pellicle transmission, yes, that is an issue, but the 30% loss that you just quoted, there are better results as we speak. That is also something that has been developed, or started to develop last year. And if you look at the curve of development, we've made clear progress.
是的,薄膜透射是一個問題,但您剛才提到的 30% 的損失,正如我們所說,有更好的結果。這也是去年已經開發或開始開發的東西。如果你看一下發展曲線,你會發現我們已經取得了明顯的進展。
Now our biggest challenge is not so much the transmission of the pellicle. I think we're making progress there. Now it is we need to start -- we, the industry, need to start making pellicles as a kind of volume product at the right specifications, and that production process is just starting up. So there, we need to have improvements in the yields that the pellicle producer currently has, but that's all normal when you look at where we are in the initial stage of that volume in our production process.
現在我們面臨的最大挑戰並不是薄膜的透射。我認為我們正在取得進展。現在我們需要開始——我們這個行業需要開始按照正確的規格批量生產薄膜產品,而這個生產過程才剛開始。因此,我們需要提高薄膜生產商目前的產量,但當你看到我們處於生產過程的初始階段時,這一切都很正常。
But we don't expect that to be a showstopper. That's going to be just hard work basically in -- like the same with ASML. It's hard work on the industrialization.
但我們並不認為這會成為一件令人震驚的事。基本上這將是一項艱苦的工作——就像 ASML 一樣。工業化很艱辛。
And then mask inspection, actinic inspection, we said it before. For the 7-nanometer node, we don't need that. Going forward, 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer, that is a potential for some customers. Some customers won't need it because they actually say we can afford -- if you're a memory customer; you're not as sensitive if you're a high-value logic customer.
然後是掩模檢查、光化檢查,我們之前說過。對於 7 奈米節點,我們不需要這樣做。展望未來,5奈米、3奈米對於某些客戶來說都是有潛力的。有些客戶不需要它,因為他們實際上說我們可以負擔得起——如果你是一個記憶體客戶;如果您是高價值邏輯客戶,您就不會那麼敏感。
So for the upcoming nodes, let's say 'til the end of the decade, that is not a major issue, and we need to find a solution beyond that. Whether it's an actinic inspection tool or another solution, that still remains to be seen, but that's not a hindrance for the initial introduction of EUV at the 7-nanometer/10-nanometer node.
因此,對於即將到來的節點,可以說直到本世紀末,這都不是一個大問題,我們需要找到一個超越它的解決方案。無論是光化檢測工具還是其他解決方案,這還有待觀察,但這並不妨礙在 7 奈米/10 奈米節點上初步引入 EUV。
So, yes, they're all issues that need to be worked on. They are not signed off as absolutely concern free. There are issues that need to be resolved. But that's pretty normal when you look at when those developments have started and where we are today.
所以,是的,這些都是需要解決的問題。他們並沒有被認為絕對無憂。有些問題需要解決。但當你觀察這些發展何時開始以及我們今天所處的位置時,這很正常。
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Thanks, Peter. And then as a follow-up, one question on EUV high-NA system. I just want to understand if your OpEx or R&D level of 13% assumes that a high-NA system would be needed.
謝謝,彼得。然後作為後續問題,關於 EUV 高 NA 系統的一個問題。我只是想了解您的 13% 的營運支出或研發水平是否假設需要高 NA 系統。
And secondly, is there an opportunity for another customer co-investment program when you guys are getting to those discussions?
其次,當你們進行這些討論時,是否有機會開展另一個客戶共同投資計畫?
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Well, it's a very good question. If you think about EUV high-NA, you talk about the next-generation EUV tool that will be introduced somewhere in the course of the next decade. That will require quite a significant investment in R&D.
嗯,這是一個非常好的問題。如果您考慮 EUV 高 NA,您就會談論將在未來十年內推出的下一代 EUV 工具。這將需要相當大的研發投資。
I think on average, the 13% R&D with our EUR10 billion target should be able to deal with it. It's more a matter of -- if you take the cumulative planned R&D that we would need over the next five years or so, then cumulatively, yes, that would suffice.
我認為平均而言,13%的研發投入加上我們100億歐元的目標應該可以解決這個問題。更重要的是──如果你把我們未來五年左右所需的累積計畫研發考慮進去,那麼累計起來,是的,這就足夠了。
However, when customers start telling us that they want this earlier, we need to put it in, then you might see a hump, which then of course we will have the discussions with our customers how we will, let's say, craft or stage the customer commitments to make sure that the interests of ASML with the increased R&D and the requirements of the customers are well aligned. And that, of course, always goes with some level of financial commitment.
然而,當客戶開始告訴我們他們想要更早的版本時,我們需要將其納入其中,然後您可能會看到一個障礙,當然,我們會與客戶討論如何制定或分階段實現客戶承諾,以確保 ASML 的利益與增加的研發以及客戶的要求保持一致。當然,這總是伴隨著一定程度的財務承諾。
And what that is, we don't know yet, but when it is clear what customers want in what timeframe, then we will definitely have those discussions. But what form it will take, I don't know. It could be simple commitments of placing purchase orders with a high level of prepayments. Stuff like that could also be.
我們還不知道那是什麼,但是當明確了客戶在什麼時間範圍內想要什麼時,我們肯定會進行這些討論。但我不知道它會採取什麼形式。這可能是下達具有高額預付款的採購訂單的簡單承諾。類似的事情也可能存在。
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Amit Ramchandani - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Ladies and gentlemen, I think we can squeeze in one more short question. So Patricia, if you could pick a short question, that would be terrific (laughter). Just kidding. But anyway, we do have time for one more question.
女士們、先生們,我想我們可以再擠出時間問一個簡短的問題。所以帕特里夏,如果你能選擇一個簡短的問題,那就太好了(笑聲)。只是在開玩笑。但無論如何,我們還有時間再回答一個問題。
And by the way, if you have trouble getting through, or you had trouble getting through, as always, feel free to call the IR department and we'll do our very best to get back to you as soon as possible with an answer to your question.
順便說一句,如果您在接通電話時遇到困難,或者像往常一樣,您隨時可以致電 IR 部門,我們將盡最大努力盡快回覆您並回答您的問題。
So, Patricia, if we could have that one last question, that would be great.
所以,派翠西亞,如果我們能問最後一個問題,那就太好了。
Operator
Operator
Francois Meunier.
弗朗索瓦·默尼耶。
Francois Meunier - Analyst
Francois Meunier - Analyst
Morgan Stanley. So just a quick one, actually, on maybe something a bit more longer term when everyone is so focused on the gross margin.
摩根士丹利。因此,實際上,當每個人都如此關注毛利率時,我只想快速討論一些更長期的事情。
Is there a market for laser spare parts going forward? So basically, at some point, you will have an installed base of -- I don't know; like 50/100 EUV machines. So is there a market for changing the lasers from the ex-Siemer business, and how significant could it be from 2020 onwards?
未來雷射備件市場有嗎?所以基本上,在某個時候,你會有一個安裝基礎——我不知道;例如 50/100 EUV 機器。那麼,更換來自西默公司前業務的雷射是否有市場?從 2020 年起,更換雷射的重要性有多大?
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
Wolfgang Nickl - EVP & CFO
On spare parts, the way how we're going to deal with this for EUV is we're going to have a service model that actually will -- the customer's cost is predictable for the customer and we're going to set [amount] of a good wafer, and that would, of course, then cover the labor and the parts required to keep the machine running.
關於備件,我們處理 EUV 備件的方式是,我們將採用一種服務模式,該模式實際上可以預測客戶的成本,我們將設定優質晶圓的數量,當然,這將涵蓋維持機器運轉所需的勞動力和零件。
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
Peter Wennink - President & CEO
If you want to make any connection or any comparison with the Siemer model, which is the on-pulse model where basically the customer pays per pulse, this is in that sense similar, and we've agreed with our customers that they pay per wafer. So that would actually mean that the spare part usage would be our problem, not the customer's problem, because the customer has a variable cost now per wafer.
如果您想與 Siemer 模型建立任何聯繫或比較,即脈衝模型,其中客戶基本上按脈衝付費,從某種意義上說,這是類似的,並且我們已經與客戶達成協議,他們按晶圓付費。所以這實際上意味著備件使用是我們的問題,而不是客戶的問題,因為客戶現在每片晶圓都有變動成本。
Francois Meunier - Analyst
Francois Meunier - Analyst
Okay. Very good. See you in two weeks.
好的。非常好。兩週後見。
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Craig DeYoung - VP IR & Corporate Communications
Along with thanking everybody for joining the call, I would, as Wolfgang referred to a couple of times, we do have an Investor Day coming up on Halloween, October 31 in New York City, and we hope that you will be able to join us; and if not, at least be able to listen in.
除了感謝大家參加電話會議之外,正如沃爾夫岡幾次提到的那樣,我們將於 10 月 31 日萬聖節在紐約市舉辦投資者日,我們希望您能夠加入我們;如果沒有,至少可以聽一下。
Now, operator, if you could formally conclude the call, we would appreciate it.
接線員,現在如果您能正式結束通話,我們將不勝感激。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2016 third-quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You can disconnect your line now.
謝謝您,先生。女士們、先生們,ASML 2016 年第三季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。