艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to ASML 2017 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 19, 2017. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2017年7月19日ASML 2017年第二季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations here at ASML. Joining me today, as always, from our headquarters here in Veldhoven in Netherlands is our CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl.

謝謝你，彼得。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天，和往常一樣，與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部來的還有我們的執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。

As a reminder, the subject of today's call is ASML's Q2 2017 results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of the call.

提醒一下，今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2017 年第二季的業績。通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。電話會議結束後不久，我們將在我們的網站上提供管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 results conference call.

女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝你們參加我們的第二季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of our second quarter financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對最近一個季度的情況進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。沃夫岡將首先回顧我們第二季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些評論，而我將在介紹結束時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些補充評論。

Wolfgang, if you will?

沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome everyone. I would like to first highlight some of the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide our view for the coming quarter.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我想先強調第二季的一些財務成就，然後提供我們對下一季的看法。

Q2 net sales came in at EUR 2.1 billion. Net system sales accounted for EUR 1.38 billion, showing another quarter of increasing memory business, which is now at 54% of net system sales, and also a strong quarter of logic sales, which represented the remaining 46%. Installed base revenue for the quarter came in stronger than expected at a level of EUR 717 million, driven by major DUV and Holistic Lithography upgrades. The first half of the year, our total installed base revenue is already at EUR 1.45 billion compared to a full year sales of EUR 2.12 billion in 2016. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 45%, slightly higher than guided, driven by a higher top line and a favorable mix. Overall OpEx came in as guided, although R&D expenses came in slightly lower at EUR 313 million and SG&A expenses came in slightly higher at EUR 102 million, driven by litigation expenses.

第二季淨銷售額達 21 億歐元。淨系統銷售額為 13.8 億歐元，顯示記憶體業務又一個季度實現成長，目前佔淨系統銷售額的 54%，邏輯業務也表現強勁，佔剩餘的 46%。受 DUV 和整體光刻技術重大升級的推動，本季安裝基礎收入達到 7.17 億歐元，高於預期。今年上半年，我們的總安裝基礎收入已達 14.5 億歐元，而 2016 年全年銷售額為 21.2 億歐元。本季毛利率達到 45%，略高於預期，這得益於更高的營業收入和良好的產品組合。整體營運支出符合預期，但研發費用略低至 3.13 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用略高至 1.02 億歐元，主要是因為訴訟費用所致。

Turning to the balance sheet. Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments came in at EUR 2.51 billion. As a reminder, in Q2, we had several extraordinary cash outflows, which have brought the overall cash balance back to our target level. We've paid a dividend of EUR 1.20 per ordinary share or approximately EUR 517 million in total to our shareholders. We also have repaid a maturing bond with an outstanding balance of EUR 238 million. And lastly, we have closed the acquisition of a 24.9% interest in Carl Zeiss SMT during the quarter for EUR 1 billion.

轉向資產負債表。本季現金、現金等價物和短期投資季增 25.1 億歐元。提醒一下，在第二季度，我們出現了幾次非常大的現金流出，這使得整體現金餘額回到了我們的目標水平。我們向股東支付了每股普通股 1.20 歐元的股息，總計約 5.17 億歐元。我們也償還了到期債券，未償餘額為 2.38 億歐元。最後，我們在本季以 10 億歐元完成了對 Carl Zeiss SMT 24.9% 股權的收購。

Moving on to the order book. Q2 system bookings came in at EUR 2.37 billion, including orders for 8 3400 EUV systems from 2 customers. Six of the EUV orders came from one customer for use in both logic and DRAM. Total bookings were almost EUR 500 million higher than in the previous quarter. Breakdown of the bookings of 60% logic and 40% memory is the same as in the previous quarter. Strong bookings in the logic sector are in support of the 10-nanometer ramps and in support of the EUV insertion at the 7-nanometer node. Memory bookings, mainly in DUVs, strengthened further from its strong Q1 level, supporting an expected 50% year-on-year revenue growth in the memory sector in 2017. The continuing order flow for EUV systems increases our EUV backlog to 27 systems valued at EUR 2.8 billion. Our overall systems backlog now stands at a record EUR 5.35 billion. After 2 strong quarters in 2017, in combination with a record order book, we are now expecting full year net sales, which are up approximately 25% from our previous record revenue of EUR 6.8 billion in 2016. 2017 revenue is driven by continued strong demand for our entire portfolio, driven by both logic and memory.

繼續查看訂單簿。第二季系統訂單金額達 23.7 億歐元，其中包括 2 位客戶的 8 套 3,400 EUV 系統訂單。六個 EUV 訂單來自同一客戶，用於邏輯和 DRAM。總預訂額比上一季高出近 5 億歐元。60％邏輯和40％記憶體的訂單分佈與上一季相同。邏輯領域的強勁預訂量支持了 10 奈米製程的提升，也支援了 7 奈米節點的 EUV 插入。記憶體訂單（主要為 DUV）較第一季的強勁水準進一步增強，支援 2017 年記憶體產業營收預計將年增 50%。EUV 系統的持續訂單流使我們的 EUV 積壓訂單增加到 27 個系統，價值 28 億歐元。我們的整體系統積壓訂單目前已達到創紀錄的 53.5 億歐元。繼 2017 年兩季的強勁表現以及創紀錄的訂單量之後，我們預計全年淨銷售額將比 2016 年創紀錄的 68 億歐元收入增長約 25%。2017 年的收入受到我們整個產品組合持續強勁的需求的推動，其中邏輯和內存兩大因素均是推動力。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the third quarter of 2017. We expect continuing sales strength in Q3 with total net sales of around EUR 2.2 billion, including an estimated EUR 300 million of EUV revenue. We plan to ship 3 NXE:3400s in the September quarter. Our EUV shipment plan for the full year remains at 12 systems and is back-end loaded. We expect our Q3 installed base revenue to come in around EUR 600 million, driven by continued demand for Holistic Lithography options, high-value upgrades and our growing installed base. For the full year, we expect our installed base revenue to be up by approximately 20% versus the 2016 levels. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be around 43%. Excluding EUV systems, gross margin is approximately going to be at the same levels as in Q1 and in Q2. R&D expenses for Q3 will be around EUR 315 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR 105 million. SG&A includes expected increases in legal expenses.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2017 年第三季的預期和指導。我們預計第三季銷售將繼續保持強勁，總淨銷售額約為 22 億歐元，其中包括預計 3 億歐元的 EUV 收入。我們計劃在九月季度出貨 3 台 NXE:3400。我們全年的 EUV 出貨計劃仍為 12 個系統，並且是後端加載的。我們預計第三季安裝基數收入將達到約 6 億歐元，這得益於對整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基數的持續需求。我們預計全年安裝基數收入將比 2016 年水準成長約 20%。預計第三季毛利率約43%。不包括 EUV 系統，毛利率大約與第一季和第二季持平。第三季的研發費用約為 3.15 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 1.05 億歐元。銷售、一般及行政費用包括法律費用的預期增加。

Finally, ASML will resume share buybacks in Q3. As a reminder, we had paused our share buyback program for about 1 year to acquire HMI and the minority share of 24.9% in Carl Zeiss SMT. We have EUR 1.1 billion remaining for 2017 from our previously announced share buyback program. We do not expect to execute the entire remainder of the program in Q3 and Q4. In line with our policy, we will return excess cash to our shareholders through share buybacks, and we will make announcements on future share buyback programs when appropriate.

最後，ASML 將在第三季恢復股票回購。提醒一下，我們已暫停股票回購計畫約 1 年，以收購 HMI 和 Carl Zeiss SMT 的 24.9% 少數股權。我們先前宣布的股票回購計畫還剩餘 11 億歐元用於 2017 年。我們預計不會在第三季和第四季執行該計劃的整個剩餘部分。根據我們的政策，我們將透過股票回購將多餘的現金回饋給股東，並在適當的時候公佈未來的股票回購計畫。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給你，彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang has highlighted, our business continues to perform very well. We expect our positive momentum to continue throughout the year based on the market environment and the related strong demand for our products. We should deliver another record year with net sales growth expected at about 25%, representing one of the strongest gains in annual revenues in our history.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如沃爾夫岡所強調的，我們的業務繼續表現良好。基於市場環境和對我們產品的強勁需求，我們預計我們的積極勢頭將全年持續下去。我們應該再創紀錄地度過一年，淨銷售額預計將成長約 25%，這將是我們歷史上年度收入成長最強勁的一年。

While Wolfgang reviewed our current quarter performance and outlook for the coming quarter, I would like to provide some commentary on the longer-term outlook of our market drivers, followed by an update on the progress and plans for our product groups. Let me start by making some comments on the market drivers and the impact on litho demand. As we have moved further into the year, the demand for memory has continued to strengthen, especially noticeable in DRAM. We are on track to see our memory revenue grow by around 50% year-on-year, creating the highest memory demand in history of ASML. However, we need to remember that this growth in spend coming off 1.5 years of wafer capacity reduction due to significant underspend in 2016 and relocations of leading-edge tools to 3D NAND and that combined with a significant end market demand growth this year. In 3D NAND, the industry continues to witness a number of greenfield fabs that are ramping, which is driving very strong lithography growth. Logic demand, where our tools is expected to grow around 15% year-on-year, driven by the continued ramp of 10 nanometer as well as the start of the 7-nanometer node, which is particularly driving the logic growth this year as it concentrates on the planned EUV adoption.

當沃爾夫岡回顧我們本季的業績和下一季的展望時，我想就我們市場驅動因素的長期前景發表一些評論，然後介紹我們產品組的進展和計劃。首先，我先對市場驅動因素及其對光刻需求的影響發表一些評論。隨著時間的推移，對記憶體的需求持續增強，尤其是 DRAM。我們的記憶體收入預計將年增約 50%，創造 ASML 史上最高的記憶體需求。然而，我們需要記住，這一支出增長是在晶圓產能減少 1.5 年之後出現的，這主要是由於 2016 年支出大幅不足以及尖端工具向 3D NAND 轉移，再加上今年終端市場需求大幅增長。在 3D NAND 領域，該行業繼續見證大量新建晶圓廠的崛起，這推動了光刻技術的強勁成長。在邏輯需求方面，我們的工具預計將同比增長約 15%，這得益於 10 奈米的持續增長以及 7 奈米節點的啟動，這尤其推動了今年的邏輯增長，因為它專注於計劃中的 EUV 採用。

With regards to China, we've been doing business in this region for over 25 years and currently have over 600 employees in 11 cities supporting an installed base of more than 400 lithography systems. We also have 2 R&D centers in China and are working to deepen our relationship with Chinese semiconductor industry customers by collaborating with industry consortia. We signed a memorandum of understanding with the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Research and Development Center, ICRD, a public research consortium dedicated to the advancements of the semiconductor industry in China, set up a jointly owned world-class application and training center in Shanghai. We have seen continued revenue growth for China -- from China over the last 5 years by both domestic Chinese as well as nondomestic companies, and we see a lot of opportunity for growth in this region going forward. However, as we mentioned on earlier occasions, the speed with which this growth will translate into sales and earnings is dependent on the ability of our new Chinese semiconductor customers, who effectively bring qualified and competitive products in volume to the market. This might take some time. We are currently in discussions with 5 domestic logic and memory customers, which per published fab plans, that translates into a lithography opportunity of more than EUR 3 billion. This opportunity led last quarter to bookings from a new Chinese domestic memory customer with shipments later this year.

就中國而言，我們已在該地區開展業務超過 25 年，目前在 11 個城市擁有 600 多名員工，為 400 多個光刻系統安裝提供支援。我們在中國也設有兩個研發中心，並致力於透過與產業聯盟合作加深與中國半導體產業客戶的關係。我們與致力於推動中國半導體產業進步的公共研究聯盟上海積體電路研究發展中心（ICRD）簽署了諒解備忘錄，在上海共同建立一個世界一流的應用和培訓中心。我們看到，過去五年來，中國國內公司和非國內公司在中國的收入都在持續成長，我們看到該地區未來存在很大的成長機會。然而，正如我們之前提到的，這種成長轉化為銷售額和收益的速度取決於我們新的中國半導體客戶的能力，他們能否有效地將合格且有競爭力的產品批量推向市場。這可能需要一些時間。我們目前正在與 5 家國內邏輯和記憶體客戶進行討論，根據已發布的晶圓廠計劃，這意味著超過 30 億歐元的光刻機會。這一機會使得上個季度獲得了來自中國國內一家新內存客戶的訂單，並將於今年晚些時候發貨。

In summary, we will see significant growth in memory demand versus prior year, and logic will build further on the healthy demand level seen in 2016, largely driven by EUV and China providing a meaningful medium-term growth opportunity. Installed base revenue continues to grow at an even greater rate than last year, driven by broad-based adoption of high-value field options and upgrades. And finally, demand will be further accelerated with the EUV adoption as customers start ramping this technology and volume production. Our current view is that the positive business trends that we're seeing in 2017 are likely to continue as we enter 2018.

總而言之，我們將看到記憶體需求較上年有顯著成長，邏輯上將在 2016 年的健康需求水準上進一步發展，這主要得益於 EUV 和中國提供的有意義的中期成長機會。受高價值現場選項和升級的廣泛採用推動，安裝基礎收入繼續以比去年更高的速度成長。最後，隨著客戶開始增加這項技術的投入和大量生產，EUV 的採用將進一步加速需求的成長。我們目前認為，2017 年看到的積極商業趨勢可能會在 2018 年繼續延續。

On the ASML product side, let me start with an update on our EUV business. In EUV, we continue to make progress as planned. We now have demonstrated all key performance specifications on our NXE:3400 system, and this includes a throughput of 125 wafers per hour. We also demonstrated 250 watts of a source power, enabling productivity improvements beyond 125 wafers per hour. Availability continues to make progress towards the 90%-plus target with continued focus on reducing the variability. We now have a system configuration that provides all of the agreed product specifications, which will enable us to now focus our work on executing on the plant availability improvements that will drive broad-based EUV insertion in mass production.

在 ASML 產品方面，我先介紹我們的 EUV 業務的最新情況。在EUV方面，我們繼續按計劃取得進展。我們現在已經展示了 NXE:3400 系統的所有關鍵效能規格，其中包括每小時 125 片晶圓的吞吐量。我們也展示了 250 瓦的光源功率，使生產率提高到每小時 125 片以上。可用性繼續朝著 90% 以上的目標邁進，同時繼續致力於降低變異性。我們現在擁有一個提供所有商定產品規格的系統配置，這將使我們能夠集中精力執行工廠可用性改進，從而推動 EUV 在大規模生產中的廣泛應用。

In addition, clear progress on the ecosystem continues as communicated by many of our customers. We have produced 0-defect pellicles, and our customers continue to make progress on photoresist sensitivity, enabling higher wafer per hour productivity. Based on this progress, customers are now more and more confident inserting EUV technology in manufacturing, as clearly indicated by the continued order flow.

此外，正如我們的許多客戶所傳達的那樣，生態系統正在繼續取得明顯進展。我們已經生產出零缺陷的薄膜，我們的客戶也在光阻靈敏度方面不斷取得進步，從而實現了更高的每小時晶圓生產率。基於這一進展，客戶現在越來越有信心在製造中引入 EUV 技術，持續的訂單流清楚地表明了這一點。

Our deep UV business is expected to grow this year of a record revenue in 2016, fueled by the demand for our immersion and KrF products in both logic and memory. We announced our latest TWINSCAN NXT:2000 immersion system at SEMICON this past week, and this new deep UV immersion system reaches several hardware innovations that to deliver improved imaging and overlay performance in support of aggressive lithography requirements on future nodes, including mix and match with EUV. We're also seeing exceptional demand with our KrF products, notably in 3D NAND.

受邏輯和記憶體領域對浸沒式和 KrF 產品需求的推動，我們的深紫外線業務預計今年的收入將創下歷史新高。我們上週在 SEMICON 上發布了最新的 TWINSCAN NXT:2000 浸沒系統，這款新型深紫外線浸沒系統實現了多項硬體創新，可提供改進的成像和覆蓋性能，以支援未來節點的嚴格光刻要求，包括與 EUV 的混合搭配。我們也看到 KrF 產品的需求異常旺盛，尤其是 3D NAND。

In Holistic Lithography, where we bring together scanner, metrology and software to provide high-value process control solutions for our customers, we expect sales to grow about 50% from last year. We have announced our latest metrology system, the YieldStar 365 -- sorry, 375, featuring new optics technology that generates more accurate data at the highest speed, providing increased quality data to feed the process control systems. In addition to YieldStar metrology systems, we're also shipping HMI e-beam systems in support of 3D NAND voltage contrast and defect inspection applications at both memory and logic customers. Product integration of HMI is progressing well with Pattern Fidelity Metrology e-beam tools being evaluated by customers, which enables Pattern Fidelity Control capability in support of the 7-nanometer node. To drive -- through further drive productivity improvements in the e-beam area, we're in the process of developing a multi-e-beam system that combines leading edge e-beam technology with ASML's unique stage and computational lithography technology.

在整體光刻領域，我們將掃描器、計量和軟體結合在一起，為客戶提供高價值的過程控制解決方案，我們預計銷售額將比去年增長約 50%。我們發布了最新的計量系統 YieldStar 365（抱歉，是 375），它採用了新的光學技術，可以以最快的速度產生更精確的數據，為製程控制系統提供更高品質的數據。除了 YieldStar 計量系統外，我們還向記憶體和邏輯客戶提供 HMI 電子束系統，以支援 3D NAND 電壓對比度和缺陷偵測應用。隨著客戶對圖案保真度計量電子束工具的評估，HMI 的產品整合進展順利，這使得圖案保真度控制能力能夠支援 7 奈米節點。為了進一步提高電子束領域的生產力，我們正在開發多電子束系統，該系統將前沿的電子束技術與 ASML 獨特的平台和計算光刻技術相結合。

Finally, we also closed the acquisition of a 24.9% interest in Carl Zeiss SMT. The main objective of this agreement is to strengthen our world-standing partnership with Carl Zeiss and facilitate the development of next-generation EUV lithography system, which we call high NA, due in the first few years of the next decade. This technology should enable the semiconductor industry to produce much higher performance microchips at a lower cost, supporting customer road maps throughout the next decade.

最後，我們也完成了卡爾蔡司SMT 24.9%股權的收購。該協議的主要目的是加強我們與卡爾蔡司的全球合作夥伴關係，並促進下一代 EUV 光刻系統（我們稱之為高 NA）的開發，該系統將於下一個十年的頭幾年推出。這項技術將使半導體產業能夠以更低的成本生產出性能更高的微晶片，並支援未來十年的客戶路線圖。

So in summary, great first half of the year with strong industry demand across all market segments, translating to very strong growth across our complete product and service portfolio for 2017. In previous quarters, we mentioned that we felt we passed an EUV inflection point. Now we see volume orders from all segments of the industry clearly marking an increased rate of adoption with order flow expected to continue, providing significant EUV growth in the coming years. As mentioned earlier, our current view is that the positive business trends that we're seeing in 2017 are likely to continue as we enter into 2018.

總而言之，今年上半年表現優異，所有細分市場的產業需求強勁，這意味著我們 2017 年整個產品和服務組合都將強勁成長。在前幾個季度中，我們提到我們感覺我們已經度過了 EUV 轉折點。現在，我們看到來自行業各個領域的大量訂單，這清楚地標誌著採用率的提高，預計訂單流將持續下去，從而在未來幾年帶來顯著的 EUV 成長。如前所述，我們目前認為，2017 年看到的積極商業趨勢可能會在 2018 年繼續延續。

And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A sessions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，彼得。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。（操作員指示）

Now Peter, operator Peter, could you -- we have the final instructions and then the first question, please?

現在，彼得，接線生彼得，您能給我們最後的指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from David Mulholland.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 David Mulholland。

This is David from UBS. Just -- first question, just on the EUV. Obviously, very good progress in the quarter, and you've put a slide in the presentation showing, potentially, for 15 to 16 layers that you could see EUV adoption up for 7 nanometers. I just wondered if you could let us know has there been any changes on your base case assumption for how many layers you could see the adoption of 7 and maybe even 5-nanometer as well in logic, and then I have a follow-up.

我是瑞銀的戴維。第一個問題是關於 EUV 的。顯然，本季度取得了非常好的進展，並且您在簡報中添加了一張幻燈片，展示了在 15 到 16 層中，您可以看到 EUV 的採用率達到 7 奈米。我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們知道，對於在邏輯上可以採用 7 奈米甚至 5 奈米的層數，您的基本情況假設是否有任何變化，然後我有一個後續問題。

Okay. I don't think we currently have any reason to change our base case assumptions. We put that in there because the additional 5 or 6 layers that you have identified on top of the 10 that has been communicated earlier, are really layers that, in the discussion with the customers, we have identified as potential additional layers. Now that really depends on the speed with which we will be able to mature our EUV systems and drive the productivity up and the availability. Because it's all a matter of cost, and I think the initial 10 are driven, you could say, by the lithographic needs. You just need to use EUV. The additional 5 to 6 will be a function of productivity and the maturity of the tool.

好的。我認為我們目前沒有任何理由改變我們的基本假設。我們把它放在那裡是因為您在之前傳達的 10 層之上確定的另外 5 或 6 層實際上是在與客戶的討論中我們確定為潛在的附加層。現在這實際上取決於我們完善 EUV 系統以及提高生產力和可用性的速度。因為這完全是成本問題，我認為最初的 10 個可以說是由光刻需求驅動的。您只需要使用 EUV。額外的 5 到 6 將取決於生產力和工具的成熟度。

That's great. And then secondly, just one on the commentary on the installed base and field option sales. You obviously have very strong growth in H1. And given the commentary that you've given for the full year, maybe my math's wrong, but it would suggest a bit of a slowdown in the absolute level in the second half. I wonder if you could just comment on why you feel that's the case or maybe correct if I've got something wrong on that.

那太棒了。其次，僅就安裝基礎和現場選項銷售的評論進行評論。你們在上半年顯然實現了非常強勁的成長。鑑於您對全年做出的評論，也許我的計算是錯誤的，但這表明下半年的絕對水平會有所放緩。我想知道您是否可以評論為什麼您認為是這樣，或者如果我的理解有誤，請您糾正。

Now David, this is Wolfgang. First of all, you're right. I mean, the -- we had an extremely strong start into the year. We have at EUR 1.45 billion, was a EUR 2.1 billion for the total last year. So it's incredibly strong start. We think we'll be up 20%. Be reminded, last year, we said we think we grow that business by approximately -- at a run rate of 10%, which we were very close to last year. But this year, it's 20% [up]. Within that, you have approximately half service and half options. The service piece is pretty stable with an upward trend. It's a function of the installed base to the last degree. The upgrades are a little bit more volatile, and that has largely to do with when our customers can afford to take the upgrade. Because you've got to remember, some of these upgrades take their machines down for 5 weeks or so. And when they're firing on all cylinders, they -- even though they see the great -- even pegged off the upgrade down the road, in the short run, for their yields, they can just simply not afford to take the machines down. And that is why, in the second half, the options piece is coming down a little bit. But having said that, we're having a fantastic yield there, 20% up year-over-year. And I think the trends are of continuous growth there will all go into next year.

大衛，這是沃夫岡。首先，你是對的。我的意思是——我們今年的開局非常強大。我們的資金為 14.5 億歐元，去年總額為 21 億歐元。所以這是一個令人難以置信的強勁開端。我們認為我們的成長率將達到 20%。請記住，去年，我們說過我們認為我們的業務將成長約 - 運行率為 10％，這與去年非常接近。但今年，這一數字上漲了 20%。其中，大約一半是服務和一半是選擇。服務部分較穩定，呈上升趨勢。它完全取決於已安裝的基礎。升級有點不穩定，這很大程度上取決於我們的客戶何時有能力進行升級。因為你必須記住，其中一些升級會導致他們的機器停機 5 週左右。當他們全速運轉時，儘管他們看到了巨大的潛力，甚至預見了未來的升級，但從短期來看，就他們的收益而言，他們根本無法承受機器停機的後果。這就是為什麼在下半年，選擇部分會有所下降。但話雖如此，我們的收益還是相當可觀的，年增了 20%。我認為這些趨勢是持續成長的，並將持續到明年。

The next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

I guess first question, as you look at the building UV backlog, clearly, confidence is rising with your customers. So I would love to hear from you guys, too, what kind of improvements you're showing, particularly on the reliability in uptime side, which I think is the clear factor that is causing these guys to commit. So I would love to hear, over the last 3 months, what kind of data you've seen?

我想第一個問題是，當您查看建築 UV 積壓時，顯然，客戶的信心正在上升。因此，我也很想聽聽你們的意見，看看你們取得了哪些改進，特別是在正常運行時間的可靠性方面，我認為這是促使這些人做出承諾的明顯因素。所以我很想聽聽，在過去的三個月裡，您看到了什麼樣的數據？

well, I think the most important factor that drives the confidence of the customer is actually in the key forms requirements that they need. It's in 250 watts, which we show, the 125 wafers per hour. And of course, we make gradual progress in the availability and in the maturity of that system. But like we said on earlier occasions, that is going to bring us to a situation where we have that when they ramp in volume in 2019. So they know that will take some time, just like the development of the ecosystem for them with photomask and with photoresist, will take some time also. But the most important part of that, actually drove that conference calls down to meeting all the key lithographic performance criteria, that drove the conference. We now have a system that actually has all that performance in it. We just have to make it a bit more reliable, and that will take a bit of time. And we will know it, and there's a whole program driving it. And it's as simple as that.

嗯，我認為推動客戶信心的最重要因素實際上在於他們需要的關鍵表格要求。它的功率為 250 瓦，我們展示的是每小時 125 片晶圓。當然，我們在該系統的可用性和成熟度方面正在逐步取得進展。但就像我們之前所說的那樣，當他們在 2019 年增加產量時，我們就會面臨這樣的情況。所以他們知道這需要一些時間，就像用光掩模和光阻來開發生態系統一樣，也需要一些時間。但其中最重要的部分實際上是推動電話會議滿足所有關鍵的光刻性能標準，從而推動了會議的召開。我們現在擁有一個真正具備所有這些性能的系統。我們只是需要讓它更可靠一點，但這需要一點時間。我們會知道這一點，並且有一個完整的程序在推動它。就這麼簡單。

Very helpful. And I guess as my follow-up, in terms of your commentary around memory, in particular, DRAM, can you specify how much of that strength you're seeing across-the-board on shrinks versus 2D NAND upgrades over to DRAM?

非常有幫助。我想作為我的後續問題，就您對內存（特別是 DRAM）的評論而言，您能否具體說明一下，在縮小與 2D NAND 升級到 DRAM 方面，您看到的全面優勢有多大？

Difficult question to answer. I'm not going to guess in this particular case. But what we are seeing is both a combination of filling up available spots, open spots in current DRAM fabs because of the market demand, and the technology transitions that are happening across the customer base. And some customers are leading in that sense, and other customers are followers. But all do technology migration. It's across the base. So it's a mix, whereby open spots in, you can say, open pedestals in effect to these are currently being filled because of the strong end market demand in DRAM, which is particularly driven by the data centers. So it's a combination of both. With DRAM, that's strong. There are not that many 3D NAND relocations happening. But that happened in the past. That happened over the last 18 months, which created this space to backfill with leading-edge lithography systems to address the rising demand in DRAM market.

這是一個很難回答的問題。對於這個特殊情況，我不會進行猜測。但我們目前看到的是，由於市場需求，現有 DRAM 晶圓廠的可用產能正在不斷增加，空置產能也不斷增加，整個客戶群正在進行技術轉型。從這個意義上來說，有些客戶是引領者，而其他客戶則是追隨者。但都進行技術遷移。它位於基地對面。因此，這是一種混合情況，您可以說，這些開放位置實際上已經被填補，因為 DRAM 的終端市場需求強勁，而這主要受到資料中心的推動。所以這是兩者的結合。有了 DRAM，它就強大了。目前還沒有發生太多的 3D NAND 遷移。但那是過去發生過的事。這一切發生在過去 18 個月內，創造了這個空間來填補尖端光刻系統，以滿足 DRAM 市場不斷增長的需求。

The next question comes from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自安德魯·加德納先生。

Andrew Gardiner with Barclays. I was just wondering if we could revisit to the 2020 model, particularly in light of the strength you're now seeing in 2017 and your expectation heading into next year as well. If I go back to the scenarios, you guys outlined at the Capital Markets Day last year, you gave us sort of 4 scenarios that supported the EUR 10 billion revenue pre-HMI. But given what we're seeing, some of the lower sort of end scenarios that you have there, in particularly unlikely, I mean, first of all, you have talked about the sort of layer count -- initial layer count expectations of EUV. You're now seeing sort of 10 layers. At the time, we were still between 6 and 10. So 6 layers quite a bit lower at the low end of that range. And then similarly, in terms of the end market assumptions you are using for your lower-demand scenario, a 20% node-on-node decline in wafer starts seems particularly cautious at this point, given what we're hearing in terms of new compute applications and the greenfield build-outs you've highlighted in China. So given that, I mean, do you not think it's sort of more fair to look at the 2 higher-end scenarios that you've outlined there we should sort of minimize likelihood of the 2 weaker ones?

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。我只是想知道我們是否可以重新審視 2020 年的模型，特別是考慮到您現在看到的 2017 年的實力以及您對明年的預期。如果我回顧一下你們去年在資本市場日概述的情景，你們為我們提供了 4 種支持 HMI 之前 100 億歐元收入的情景。但鑑於我們所看到的情況，您所遇到的一些較低端的情況尤其不可能，我的意思是，首先，您談到了層數——EUV 的初始層數預期。現在您看到的是 10 層。當時，我們的人數還在 6 到 10 人之間。因此，在該範圍的低端，6 層要低得多。同樣，就您在低需求情境中使用的終端市場假設而言，考慮到我們所聽到的有關新計算應用和您強調的中國綠地建設的消息，晶圓啟動節點數下降 20% 目前似乎特別謹慎。因此，考慮到這一點，我的意思是，您是否認為更公平地看待您所概述的兩種高端情景，我們應該盡量減少兩種較弱情景的可能性？

Well, you did a good job almost providing the answer, along with your question. I think you're exactly right. I mean, we will not be standing there in New York last year telling you exactly where to pinpoint the revenue in 2020. We gave you a bit of a model with the key sensitivities and, as we've explained, the 2 major ones when we go through all of our sensitivities end market demand. And there, we have shown a little bit of sensitivity, and you see, there's not been that much of an upside and a downside compared to the intensity of the EUV and insertion, where we've seen between a high insertion and low insertion, it was quite a bit of a difference. I think the market assumptions provided another EUR 1 billion to the upside and then was another EUR 2 billion or so in the EUV insertion. I think what we can say is that we were certainly more confident that we're not going through the bottom end of the scenarios because you're absolutely right with everything that you're hearing from the end markets, be it frames and memory, being it new applications, being it like autonomous driving or a move towards autonomous driving, data centers, big data, analytics. Whatever you hear is pointing that the market is not going to be soft. And then with the recent accomplishments on EUV, if we follow through, which is our intent to -- now that we have the specs met, that we get the availability up. And to Peter's earlier point, right now, we've highlighted 10 layers, for instance, in logic that will be initial layers. As we move this further up, we have an opportunity to overachieve that number. But it's too early to pinpoint a new number. That's why we have given you these sensitivities. But we feel pretty comfortable right now.

好吧，您幾乎已經提供了答案，同時也提出了問題。我認為你說得完全正確。我的意思是，我們去年不會站在紐約告訴你 2020 年的收入到底是多少。我們為您提供了一個包含關鍵敏感度的模型，正如我們所解釋的，當我們考慮所有敏感度時，有兩個主要敏感度：終端市場需求。在那裡，我們表現出了一點敏感性，你看，與 EUV 和插入的強度相比，並沒有太大的優勢和劣勢，我們已經看到在高插入和低插入之間，差別很大。我認為市場假設又提供了 10 億歐元的上行空間，然後在 EUV 插入中又提供了 20 億歐元左右。我想我們可以說的是，我們當然更有信心，我們不會經歷場景的底端，因為你從終端市場聽到的一切都是完全正確的，無論是框架和內存，是新應用程序，是自動駕駛還是向自動駕駛、數據中心、大數據、分析的轉變。無論您聽到什麼，都表示市場不會疲軟。然後，憑藉最近在 EUV 方面取得的成就，如果我們堅持下去，這就是我們的意圖 - 現在我們已經滿足了規格，我們就可以提高可用性。對於彼得之前提出的觀點，現在，我們已經強調了 10 個層，例如，在邏輯上，這些層將是初始層。隨著我們進一步提高這一目標，我們就有機會超越這個數字。但現在確定新的數字還為時過早。這就是我們賦予你這些敏感度的原因。但我們現在感覺很舒服。

Okay, understood. Just a quick follow-up. Wolfgang, in terms of the EUV rev rec this year. So earlier in the year, you were thinking, if I recall, sort of EUR 1.1 billion, EUR 1.2 billion. Is that still a reasonable number given sort of shipments and tool performance in the field?

好的，明白了。只是一個快速的跟進。沃爾夫岡，就今年的 EUV rev rec 而言。所以今年早些時候，如果我沒記錯的話，你當時想的是 11 億歐元，12 億歐元。考慮到現場的出貨量和工具性能，這個數字是否仍然是合理的？

Yes. It's a good question. I mean, at this point, I would say that it's going to be around EUR 1 billion or so. I mean, it has to do with a whole bunch of things. Like you know, since last year, we can recognize majority of revenue with shipments, but there are still a few things that we need to defer. For instance, if -- the installation, we have a little bit if we provide a longer warranty. We have to defer a little bit there. And we also got to really look at whether the configuration at the factory test is exactly the same as when we retest the system at the customer's site, which in a time when you're struggling to get all your material together can sometimes -- small pieces are different than the final test at the customer. And there, we have to defer again by a quarter or so. So I'd be careful there. And even though we shipped 12 systems and even though we get some deferred revenue in from the past, we will still have to defer a bit of the revenue into 2018. So if you want to be on the safe side, I would count on EUR 1 billion right now. Of course, this has the effect now that we have a stable configuration. Next year, we're going to recognize in the same year, plus we then have a catch-up. I mean, we'll have a deferred revenue balance at the end of this year. So next year, not only will the shipments go up from 12 to 20 before upgrades, but we're going to get a couple of hundred million on deferred revenue. So I would plan on EUR 1 billion right now, Andrew.

是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是，目前，我會說它將達到 10 億歐元左右。我的意思是，這與很多事情有關。如您所知，自去年以來，我們可以透過出貨量確認大部分收入，但仍有一些事情我們需要推遲。例如，如果 - 安裝，如果我們提供更長的保固期，我們會有一點。我們必須稍微推遲一下。我們還必須真正了解工廠測試時的配置是否與我們在客戶現場重新測試系統時的配置完全相同，當您努力將所有材料整合在一起時，有時小部件與客戶的最終測試有所不同。因此，我們不得不再次推遲四分之一左右。所以我會很小心。儘管我們已經交付了 12 個系統，儘管我們過去獲得了一些遞延收入，但我們仍然需要將部分收入推遲到 2018 年。因此，如果你想要安全起見，我現在會指望 10 億歐元。當然，現在我們有了穩定的配置，這就產生了效果。明年，我們將在同一年承認，然後我們再進行追趕。我的意思是，我們今年底將有遞延收入餘額。因此，明年，升級前的出貨量不僅會從 12 架增加到 20 架，而且我們還將獲得數億美元的遞延收入。所以我現在計劃投入 10 億歐元，安德魯。

The next question comes from Mr. Alex Duval.

下一個問題來自亞歷克斯·杜瓦爾先生。

Alex Duval from Goldman Sachs. Just a quick question on HMI. You've talked a bit more about the innovations ASML is driving to combine e-beam with your computational lithography. Wondered if you could give a bit more color on the key technical aspects you're working on, what's the feedback been from customers you've been discussing with and anything else important on the solutions so far.

高盛的亞歷克斯杜瓦爾。這只是關於 HMI 的一個簡單問題。您已經詳細談論了 ASML 在將電子束與計算光刻技術相結合方面所推動的創新。想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下您正在研究的關鍵技術方面，與您討論過的客戶的反饋是什麼，以及迄今為止解決方案中的任何其他重要內容。

Yes. Thank you, Alex. The development that we're seeing there is that we're executing as planned, as part of the acquisition, on the combination of the ASML lithographic -- let's say the Holistic Lithographic computational competence with the e-beam competence that HMI has in the field. Now the combination of those to the first product will be shipped in the second half of this year and will be evaluated by 3 customers. With positive evaluation, we will then start to ship that product in 2018, which will be a single-beam tool, combined with the ASML computational lithography competence. Now that will be an intermediate solution and will be focused on defect inspection, on wafer inspection. That will be -- that will follow by a more, let's say, economic solution, which will involve multi beam. Multi beam, which actually has the advantage of being able to inspect the wafer much faster, which will bring the cost of inspection down, will also -- the -- you could -- so array or the service that you can inspect will also go up, which will also -- which could have a very positive impact on the customer yields. So that is a product. That's scheduled for the year thereafter, so after next year, whereby it's not only the multi-beam column. Because if you have a capability to move the wafer faster, you also need faster stages. Now lo and behold, there's one company on this planet that's very good at fast stages, and that's ASML. So I think fast-stage technology, combined with good computational lithography, combined with a multi-e-beam solution will get a very powerful solution for wafer inspection going forward.

是的。謝謝你，亞歷克斯。我們看到的發展是，我們正在按計劃執行，作為收購的一部分，結合 ASML 光刻技術——比如說整體光刻計算能力與 HMI 在該領域的電子束能力。現在，這些組合到第一款產品將於今年下半年出貨，並將由 3 位客戶進行評估。如果獲得正面評價，我們將在 2018 年開始發售該產品，它將是一種單光束工具，結合 ASML 運算光刻能力。現在這將是一個中間解決方案，並將專注於缺陷檢查和晶圓檢查。那將會是一個更經濟的解決方案，它將涉及多光束。多光束實際上具有能夠更快地檢查晶圓的優勢，這將降低檢查成本，因此您可以檢查的陣列或服務也會增加，這也會對客戶產量產生非常積極的影響。這就是一個產品。這項計畫定於後年進行，也就是明年之後，屆時就不僅僅是多光束柱了。因為如果您有能力更快地移動晶圓，那麼您也需要更快的平台。現在你瞧，這個世界上有一家公司在快速階段非常擅長，那就是 ASML。因此，我認為快速技術與良好的計算光刻技術相結合，再加上多電子束解決方案，將為未來的晶圓檢測提供非常強大的解決方案。

The next question is coming from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

Just going back to the EUV revenue recognition. Wolfgang, how should we think or how should we model deferred EUV revenue by year-end '17? And as shipment starts in '18, should we think of revenue recognition on this EUV system happening at an earlier time? Or in other words, would deferred revenue start to go down? And I have a follow-up.

回到 EUV 收入確認。沃夫岡，我們該如何思考或如何模擬 2017 年底的遞延 EUV 收入？由於 2018 年開始出貨，我們是否應該考慮更早確認該 EUV 系統的收入？或者換句話說，遞延收入會開始下降嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Mehdi, you're right. So for next year, on the shipments, you should clearly think of the revenue in that -- in the same period as the shipment. And then we currently think that we'll have a deferred revenue balance of up to EUR 500 million at the end of this year. So again, next year, you will very likely see our revenue be higher than the number of shipment times the price because all the deferred revenue is coming in next year.

是的，Mehdi，你是對的。因此，對於明年的出貨量，您應該清楚地考慮出貨量同期的收入。我們目前認為，今年底我們的遞延收入餘額將高達 5 億歐元。因此，明年，您很可能會看到我們的收入高於出貨量乘以價格，因為所有遞延收入都將在明年到來。

Great. And then follow-up regarding the DUV business. Your booking for the June quarter was down 4%, excluding the EUV. And in that context, should I assume that DUV shipment in the second half of the year would be slightly down compared to the first half?

偉大的。然後跟進有關 DUV 業務。不包括 EUV，6 月季度的訂單量下降了 4%。在這種背景下，我是否可以假設下半年的 DUV 出貨量會比上半年略有下降？

Yes. I think -- I mean, you can do the math if you take what we said with the 25%, and then you take the EUV shipments and within -- and installed base revenue a little bit down in the second half. I mean, the end of the story is DUV in the second half is not going to be too different from what it was in the first half. I think we said also on the call that this business was already very, very good last year, and we're up another 15% or so. And I wouldn't put too much weight, albeit it gives you some info on the structure of the backlog. But I wouldn't put too much on the details on the bookings there. And although we get asked a lot about this [party] over next year, but we see trends continuing in 2018. So EUV is also going to be strong next year.

是的。我認為 - 我的意思是，如果你採用我們所說的 25%，然後考慮 EUV 出貨量和 - 安裝基礎收入在下半年會略有下降，那麼你就可以進行計算。我的意思是，故事的結局是，下半年的 DUV 不會與上半年太大不同。我想我們在電話會議上也說過，去年這項業務已經非常非常好了，而且我們又成長了 15% 左右。儘管它為您提供了有關積壓結構的一些信息，但我不會給予太多重視。但我不會透露太多有關預訂的細節。儘管我們經常被問到明年的這個（聚會）情況，但我們認為這種趨勢將在 2018 年繼續延續。因此 EUV 明年也會表現強勁。

Yes. And to add to that, I mean, a 4% down quarter-on-quarter, I mean, you know how our quarterly bookings vary. We have only a few customers, and they tend to send those orders in by batches and then shipped. And then 4% single digit, low single-digit percentages, in my mind, are completely meaningless.

是的。除此之外，我的意思是，環比下降了 4%，我的意思是，你知道我們的季度預訂量是如何變化的。我們的客戶只有少數，他們傾向於分批發送訂單然後發貨。然後，在我看來，4% 的個位數、低個位數百分比是完全沒有意義的。

The next question comes from Mr. Farhan Ahmad.

下一個問題來自法爾漢·艾哈邁德先生。

This is Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse. My first question is on memory shipments that are up 50% year-on-year. Peter, can you just talk about how much of the growth is driven by increase in capital intensity and EUV? And how much of it is really going to drive the demand higher this year. And also, if you could touch on what percentage of bit growth do you expect in NAND, DRAM market this year based on the shipments that you're supporting? That would be all.

我是瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。我的第一個問題是關於記憶體出貨量年增 50% 的問題。彼得，您能談談成長有多少是由資本密集度和 EUV 的提高所推動的嗎？其中有多少真正能推動今年的需求成長？另外，根據您所支援的出貨量，您能否談談您預計今年 NAND、DRAM 市場比特成長率是多少？就這樣吧。

Could you repeat the first question? Because I thought you talked about memory and then growth in capital intensity, but I thought you said EUV.

您能重複第一個問題嗎？因為我以為你談論的是內存，然後是資本強度的增長，但我以為你說的是 EUV。

So 50% growth that you have in memory shipment, there is some EUV component in that as well, I'm imagining. Please correct me.

因此，我想像，內存出貨量增長 50% 也有一些 EUV 組件。請糾正我。

Well, I think in -- when you think about the growth in capital intensity, where the 50% growth, is really deep UV. I mean, we do take some EUV memory orders, but that is not for capacity additions. Those are really for ramping up and qualifying the product, and the ramp will be at the end of the second half of 2018 going into 2019. So that is not driven by any EUV shipments. It's really deep UV and particularly strong in DRAM. And that is like I said in the prepared remarks also, but I'd like to repeat it. It's not a major surprise, if you think about it. I mean, the DRAM supply and demand curves are -- I'm going to talk about the end product, the DRAM device, really driven by the capacity situation and the end demand. And in a situation like we had in 2014 going into 2015, where 2 major fabs in Korea, M14 and L17, came online, started to take as many tools as they could to fill up the fab, you got a big step up in capacity, where, of course, the end demand doesn't follow that step curve. And so you have a period in which there is a supply and demand imbalance and, at least, a lower DRAM prices, which actually, at that moment in time, memory makers that could also see strong demand in 3D NAND start to relocate capacity out of DRAM into 3D NAND. Now that end demand, driven by strong data center demand, when that goes up, we'll catch up. And that has actually happened the second half of last year, leading to increased DRAM prices. And that is not a surprise then that those empty pedestals, where previously they had litho tools that are now in 3D NAND, are being backfilled with the technology transitions on top of that. And that is creating the strong demand this year, also driven by a strong end market where the data center demand is very strong for leading-edge DRAM. Now what does that mean for bit growth? Well, bit growth, 26% is what market research firms say, now listening to customers that might come up with some different numbers. But trying to predict those numbers is very dangerous. Because last year, we saw market research firms talking about DRAM growth rates, and I'm talking about the end demand growth rates, of lower than 20%, and it ended up north in the high 20s. So difficult to predict. I would suggest we keep looking at the DRAM prices. The DRAM price, it is a commodity, is a reflection of the supply and demand balance. And currently, there is some undersupply, and that's for sure.

嗯，我認為——當你考慮資本密集度的成長時，50% 的成長確實是深紫外線。我的意思是，我們確實接受了一些 EUV 記憶體訂單，但這並不是為了增加容量。這些實際上是為了提高產品品質和品質，產品將在 2018 年下半年末到 2019 年期間提高。因此，這不是由任何 EUV 出貨量推動的。它確實是深紫外線，並且在 DRAM 中特別強大。這也就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，但我想重複一遍。如果你仔細想想，這並不算什麼大驚喜。我的意思是，DRAM 的供需曲線——我將要討論的是最終產品，即 DRAM 設備，它實際上是由產能狀況和最終需求驅動的。在 2014 年進入 2015 年的情況下，韓國的兩家主要晶圓廠 M14 和 L17 開始上線，開始使用盡可能多的工具來填滿晶圓廠，產能大幅提升，當然，最終需求並不符合這一曲線。因此，在一段時期內，供需會出現不平衡，至少 DRAM 價格會較低，實際上，在那個時候，記憶體製造商也能看到 3D NAND 的強勁需求，並開始將產能從 DRAM 轉移到 3D NAND。現在，終端需求受到強勁的資料中心需求的推動，當終端需求上升時，我們就會趕上。這實際上在去年下半年就發生了，導致 DRAM 價格上漲。因此，那些空置的基座（以前用於放置光刻工具，現在用於 3D NAND）正在透過技術轉型進行填補，這並不奇怪。這導致了今年強勁的需求，同時也受到強勁終端市場的推動，其中資料中心對尖端 DRAM 的需求非常強勁。那麼這對於比特成長意味著什麼呢？嗯，市場研究公司說的是小幅成長，26%，但現在聽取客戶的意見可能會得出一些不同的數字。但試圖預測這些數字是非常危險的。因為去年，我們看到市場研究公司談論 DRAM 成長率，我說的是最終需求成長率，低於 20%，但最終卻達到了 20% 左右。很難預測。我建議我們繼續關注 DRAM 價格。DRAM 價格作為一種商品，反映了供需平衡。目前，供應肯定存在不足。

And I think for NAND, we expect around 40%.

我認為對於 NAND，我們預計約為 40%。

Yes, around 40%. Well, we expect nothing. We just repeat what other people are saying, which is around 40%, but who knows.

是的，大約40%。好吧，我們什麼也不期待。我們只是重複別人所說的話，大約佔 40%，但誰知道呢。

Got it. And then on the EUV, I saw in the presentation that you posted online, that there is a mention of unidirectional and bidirectional design. And just based on my industry chatter also, it seems at least one of the customers has picked up the activity on doing bidirectional design. So I just wanted to ask you, in terms of the insertion of EUV, how does it affect the opportunity for you, whether it's bidirectional or unidirectional? Is it fair to think that if it's bidirectional, then there would be a lot fewer steps that are needed for (inaudible) edge?

知道了。然後關於 EUV，我在您在線上發布的簡報中看到，其中提到了單向和雙向設計。而且僅根據我對業界的了解，似乎至少有一位客戶已經開始進行雙向設計活動。所以我只想問你，就 EUV 的插入而言，它如何影響你的機會，無論是雙向的還是單向的？是否可以這樣想：如果它是雙向的，那麼（聽不清楚）邊緣所需的步驟就會少很多？

Well, I think it doesn't really matter. And when I can refer to Slide 17 and that you're -- what you're referring to is that 2D patterning, 1 EUV exposure; 1D patterning, 1 EUV exposure. That's the same. So it doesn't really matter, yes? So it's -- well, I'm not going to comment on (inaudible) edge because we're not experts on it. So -- but from an EUV point of view, there's no issue.

嗯，我認為這沒什麼關係。當我可以參考投影片 17 時，您指的是 2D 圖案化、1 EUV 曝光；1D 圖案化，1 EUV 曝光。那是一樣的。所以這其實不重要，對嗎？所以 - 好吧，我不會對（聽不清楚）優勢發表評論，因為我們不是這方面的專家。所以 — — 但從 EUV 的角度來看，沒有問題。

Next question comes from Mr. Douglas Smith.

下一個問題來自道格拉斯·史密斯先生。

It's Doug Smith from Agency Partners. From my tracking of the industry, it looks as though the percentage of litho spend versus total wafer fab equipment has dropped a little bit the last maybe 2 years or so. First of all, do you agree with that assessment? And second, do you imagine that going forward that litho intensity might go back up again?

我是 Agency Partners 的 Doug Smith。從我對這個行業的追蹤來看，過去大約兩年來，光刻支出佔晶圓廠設備總額的比例似乎有所下降。首先，您是否同意該評估？其次，您是否認為今後光刻強度可能會再次回升？

Yes, Doug. This is Wolfgang. I got to disappoint you there a little bit. I -- we are not big trackers of this metric. We're solely focused on our EUR 11 billion and the potential upsides to that. And the reason why we're not focusing on this too much is twofold. Number one, historically, the customer CapEx has not shown a strong correlation to our own revenue in a given year. But more importantly, it is something that is very difficult to normalize because you got to think about FX, for instance. I mean, 2.5 years ago, the exchange rate was $1.40, and then it went down to $1.10 to euro. And all of a sudden, the litho spend looks lower, but had nothing to do with our business. It's just the different exchange rate. Secondly, if you heard earlier in the call, we have a very specific strategy to provide upgrades to our customers that we have in field options and services and that they don't necessarily count in the different people's calculation on adding up these numbers. I think from that perspective, we are not looking at it. But we're not worried about our share on the overall spend. We're worried about executing our road maps and getting to our revenue, and it will be whatever share of whatever somebody puts together.

是的，道格。這是沃夫岡。我得讓你稍微失望一下了。我——我們並不是這個指標的大型追蹤者。我們只關注我們的 110 億歐元及其潛在的上升空間。我們不太關注這個問題的原因有兩個。首先，從歷史上看，客戶的資本支出與我們某一年的收入並沒有表現出強烈的相關性。但更重要的是，這是一件很難正常化的事情，因為你必須考慮 FX 等因素。我的意思是，2.5年前，匯率是1.40美元，然後跌到了1.10美元兌歐元。突然之間，光刻成本看起來降低了，但與我們的業務無關。只是匯率不同而已。其次，如果您在通話中早些時候聽說過，我們有一個非常具體的策略，為我們的客戶提供升級，我們在現場選項和服務方面擁有這些升級，而且它們不一定計入不同人在加總這些數字時的計算中。我認為從這個角度來看，我們並沒有考慮到這個問題。但我們並不擔心我們在整體支出中所佔的份額。我們擔心的是執行我們的路線圖和獲得我們的收入，這將是某人所籌集的任何份額。

Got it. But perhaps I can ask another question, like a more technical question. And that is we're seeing a lot of chips made these days using full pellicle sizes, 800-plus millimeters. Is that going to be a problem for the current generation of EUV print such large chips and how about for high NA, where you're using anamorphic production?

知道了。但也許我可以問另一個問題，例如一個更技術性的問題。也就是說，我們現在看到很多晶片都採用全尺寸薄膜，厚度超過 800 毫米。對於當前這一代 EUV 印刷如此大的晶片來說，這會是個問題嗎？對於使用變形生產的高 NA 來說，這會是個問題嗎？

Yes, I think not for the current EUV generations, potentially, for the high NA. But we don't think it's going to be a major issue. In the discussions we've had with customers, that's being addressed. It also has to do -- is a matter of design parameters that you can take into consideration. So that's the sole part of the equation of why high NA is an economic solution or not and everything that we currently calculate. And I think our customers agree with us that the high NA specification, which includes in the different mask size, is very likely. I point you into the direction that it's highly economical to do it.

是的，我認為對於當前的 EUV 世代來說可能不是這樣，對於高 NA 來說可能不是這樣。但我們不認為這會成為一個大問題。在我們與客戶的討論中，這個問題正在解決。它也與您可以考慮的設計參數有關。所以，這就是高 NA 是否是經濟解決方案的等式的唯一部分，也是我們目前計算的所有內容。我認為我們的客戶同意我們的觀點，包括不同掩模尺寸在內的高NA規格是非常有可能的。我向你指出的是，這樣做非常經濟。

The next question comes from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自桑迪普·德什潘德先生。

My question, Peter, is on 2019. I mean, clearly, now you have orders in your book for '18 of the '20 orders that -- or '20 tools that are going to bid in next year. How do you see 2019? I mean, are you already talking to your customers about 2019? Because some of your customers have indicated 7 nanometers starting with as much as 8-plus layers. So some of that will have to be shipping in the first half of '19 as well as some of the memory customers. So maybe you can make a comment on 2019 conversations you're having with customers. And I have a quick follow-up after that.

彼得，我的問題是關於 2019 年的。我的意思是，很明顯，現在您的帳簿上已經有了 20 個訂單中的 18 個訂單，或者說是明年要投標的 20 個工具的訂單。您如何看待2019年？我的意思是，您已經和客戶談論 2019 年了？因為您的一些客戶已經指出 7 奈米從多達 8 層開始。因此，其中一些產品以及一些內存客戶必須在 19 年上半年發貨。因此，也許您可以對 2019 年與客戶進行的對話發表評論。之後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. Well, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, 27 systems in the order book with shipment pattern that we gave you means that we're virtually done for 2017 and '18. So everything moves into 2019. Now with the order lead times that we're currently having, yes, you're absolutely right. This -- the order discussion that we're currently having are about 2019, and that's the case, yes.

是的。嗯，我認為你完全正確。我的意思是，我們給您的訂單簿上有 27 個系統以及出貨模式，這意味著我們 2017 年和 2018 年的工作實際上已經完成了。一切都進入了 2019 年。現在，根據我們目前的訂單交付週期，是的，您完全正確。是的，我們正在討論的訂單是關於 2019 年的，情況確實如此。

And people are giving you indications in terms of what they might be building at this point?

人們是否向您暗示了他們目前可能正在建造什麼？

I think when you add it all up, you see 2019 and what we ship in 2018, I think we're currently seeing -- we're currently added up. It's around 30 units, could be a bit more than that, that they need for 2019, which, by the way, could be almost similar to what we're currently looking at where we can ramp in terms of our own capacity. We've said before, we will ramp our capacity double, double from 2018 to 2019. That is true for our build capacity here in Veldhoven, but we're seeing 1- or 2-quarter delays in that capacity in the supply chain. So that means that, that capacity buildup of, let's say, 45-systems capacity is really there in 2020, but in 2019, we see 1 or 2 quarters delay. So that -- around 30 demand, if I add it all up today, is -- that would -- could probably nicely fit to what our capacity is, could be a bit more than 30. But it's a bit too early to give you a final number. But since you asked me the question, I add it up today, and that's what the number is.

我認為，當你把所有這些加起來時，你會看到 2019 年和我們在 2018 年發貨的數量，我想我們目前看到的是 - 我們目前已經加起來了。2019 年他們需要的產量大約是 30 台，甚至可能更多，順便說一句，這可能與我們目前考慮的可以提高自身產能的產量幾乎相同。我們之前說過，從 2018 年到 2019 年，我們的產能將翻倍。對於我們在費爾德霍芬的建設能力來說確實如此，但我們發現供應鏈中的該能力延遲了 1 到 2 個季度。因此，這意味著，45 個系統容量的容量累積在 2020 年確實存在，但在 2019 年，我們會看到 1 或 2 個季度的延遲。因此，如果我把今天的需求全部加起來，那麼大約有 30 個需求，這可能與我們的容量很吻合，可能略多於 30 個。但現在給出最終數字還為時過早。不過既然你問我這個問題，我今天就把它加起來，這就是這個數字。

Okay, thanks Peter. And just a quick follow-up for Wolfgang. I mean, Wolfgang, in terms of the numbers that you've given at the Analyst Day last year, I mean, the moderate case was EUR 11 billion in sales and EUR 9-plus in EPS. If you actually just roll out the numbers that you printed in 2Q, you're well ahead that on a full year basis already. So would you need to give new guidance at this point or you think that you are at a much higher level in terms of demand or something else has changed in terms of demand at this point where we are in the cycle?

好的，謝謝彼得。這只是對沃爾夫岡 (Wolfgang) 的簡短跟進。我的意思是，沃爾夫岡，就您在去年分析師日上給出的數字而言，中等規模的情況是銷售額為 110 億歐元，每股收益為 9 歐元以上。如果您實際上只是推出第二季公佈的數字，那麼您已經遠遠領先全年的數字。那麼，您是否需要在此時給予新的指導，或者您認為在需求方面您處於更高的水平，或者在我們所處的周期階段，需求方面發生了其他變化？

I'm not sure whether you were on -- early on the call. We tried to address that. I mean, we're not changing the EUR 11 billion right now, but we pointed towards the sensitivities we showed last year in New York. And I think you can at least, at this point, conclude that the bottom end of the scenarios, both on the demand side and on the number of litho layers, seems more and more unlikely. If there's any bias, I think everybody would say now that we have an upside opportunity. But let's just get this year under our belt. And next year and at the appropriate time, we'll give you a formal update on the model with new sensitivities. But we're -- like I said earlier, we're feeling pretty comfortable about those levels at this point.

我不確定您是否在通話初期。我們嘗試解決這個問題。我的意思是，我們現在不會改變這 110 億歐元，但我們指出了去年在紐約表現出的敏感度。我認為，至少在這一點上，你可以得出結論，無論是從需求方面還是從光刻層數來看，情況的底端似乎都越來越不可能。如果有任何偏見，我想現在每個人都會說我們有一個上行機會。但讓我們先把今年的事情做好。明年在適當的時候，我們將向您提供具有新敏感性的模型的正式更新。但正如我之前所說，我們對目前的水平感到非常滿意。

The next question comes from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani 先生。

I'm Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. The first one really is a clarification to what was said earlier. So if I understood correctly, Wolfgang, did you indicate that the deferred revenue for next year would be around EUR 500 million and also the shipments next year with fee revenues being fully recognized? And so if I assume, say, EUR 100 million per tool, does that imply 20 and 200 (sic) [EUR 2 billion], plus EUR 500 million, we are looking at a revenue of EUR 2.5 billion, if you could just help me...

我是花旗銀行的阿米特‧哈爾查達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。請問我有兩個問題。第一個其實是對之前所說內容的澄清。那麼，如果我理解正確的話，沃爾夫岡，您是否表示明年的遞延收入將達到約 5 億歐元，並且明年的出貨量和費用收入都將得到全額確認？因此，如果我假設每件工具的成本為 1 億歐元，這是否意味著 20 和 200（原文如此）[20 億歐元]，再加上 5 億歐元，我們的收入就是 25 億歐元，如果您能幫我一下…

Your math reflects what I said.

你的數學反映了我所說的。

Okay. That's helpful. And also, given that there is EUR 500 million of deferred revenue, wouldn't that have a one-off implication for the gross margin because most of that would be the fairly high gross margin?

好的。這很有幫助。而且，考慮到有 5 億歐元的遞延收入，這是否會對毛利率產生一次性影響，因為其中大部分都是相當高的毛利率？

Well, also there, I mean, it certainly helps, but we knew that. I mean, we have said we're coming on a journey from minus 75% last year to 40%. So now you can argue whether it makes the breakeven a little bit tougher this year and the 20% a bit easier. But in general, it has a little bit of a relocation left and right, but it doesn't change our trajectory that what we have in mind is really 40%. We need that to get to our rate of 50%. And we always said the biggest variable there is the volume, and the second biggest variable is the serviceability of the tool. And then we have -- with the learning curve and avoiding E&O. And with the tool now performing to the specs and that enabling us to "freeze" the spec and really work on availability, that makes us really much more comfortable that also on the financial side, we can deliver on that 40%.

嗯，我的意思是，它確實有幫助，但我們知道這一點。我的意思是，我們已經說過，我們的成長率將從去年的-75%降至40%。所以現在你可以爭論一下這是否會使今年的收支平衡變得更加困難，而 20% 的收支平衡是否會變得更容易。但總的來說，它有一點點左右移動，但這並沒有改變我們的軌跡，我們心中真正想要的是 40%。我們需要這樣做才能達到 50% 的比率。我們總是說最大的變數是數量，第二大變數是工具的適用性。然後我們就有了——透過學習曲線來避免 E&O。現在該工具的性能已達到規格要求，這使我們能夠「凍結」規格並真正致力於可用性，這讓我們更加放心，即使在財務方面，我們也可以實現那 40%。

And just for a second question, with respect to the supply chain with the comment I think Peter referred to earlier. Just wanted to understand, would you -- are you looking at potentially helping your suppliers or supply chain build up capacity to give you the flexibility to potentially ship more EUV tools by 2019? Or in other words, is that already starting to emerge as a constraint in your view?

第二個問題是關於供應鏈的，我認為 Peter 之前提到過這個評論。只是想了解一下，您是否正在考慮幫助您的供應商或供應鏈建立產能，以便您能夠靈活地在 2019 年之前運送更多的 EUV 工具？或者換句話說，在您看來，這是否已經開始成為一種限制？

I think the ramp-up is a good question. I think the ramp-up in the supply chain, of course, when we said customers turned the corner, but the order flow is also a good evidence of it and is also has ignited a lot of activity in the supply chain. However, going from a very low level to then ramping it up here and there, it doesn't always go as smooth as we would want. That's why I alluded to a 1- or 2-quarter delay to the capacity ramp to, let's say, 40, 45 units. And that's where we are. And I think it's not so much a matter of money. Money doesn't always help you. It's just a matter of can you get the people on time trained, can you get the materials on time with long lead times. And then you could argue money will help you to put -- to get people in faster. But the learning curve is the learning curve. So these are the kind of things that we are -- as we're driving together with our suppliers, and this is what we -- what the current status is. Now rest assured, we'll do anything to get more out. If the demand is higher, then we'll just put everything that we can. But I'm afraid money alone will not do it. So it has to be people, knowledge, and how far we can push it is too early to say.

我認為增加是一個好問題。我認為，當我們說客戶轉危為安時，供應鏈就會加速成長，但訂單流也是一個很好的證據，也激發了供應鏈中的大量活動。然而，從非常低的水平開始，然後逐漸提高，並不總是像我們希望的那樣順利。這就是為什麼我提到產能提升將延遲 1 到 2 個季度，比如說 40、45 個單位。這就是我們現在的處境。我認為這不只是錢的問題。金錢並不總是能幫助你。問題只是你能否按時培訓人員，能否在較長的交貨時間內按時獲得材料。然後你可以說錢可以幫助你更快吸引人們。但學習曲線就是學習曲線。這就是我們正在與供應商共同推動的事情，這就是我們目前的狀況。現在請放心，我們會盡一切努力獲得更多。如果需求更高，那麼我們就會盡一切努力。但我擔心單靠金錢是無法做到這一點的。所以這必須是人力、知識，至於我們能走多遠，現在說還太早。

The next question comes from Mr. Jagadish Iyer.

下一個問題來自 Jagadish Iyer 先生。

Two questions. First, Peter, one of the things that some of the companies were involved in multi-patterning have been settings that EUV insertion will initially happen for vias and cuts. But looking at the cartoon on Slide 17, it looks like your insertion is going to be for metal lines and spaces. Just want to understand the disconnect where we are on that in terms of that.

兩個問題。首先，彼得，一些公司參與多重圖案化的事情之一是設置 EUV 插入最初將發生在通孔和切口處。但看一下投影片 17 上的卡通，看起來您的插入內容將是金屬線和空間。只是想了解我們在這方面存在的分歧。

Well, you should ask the other companies.

嗯，你應該問問其他公司。

Okay, okay. So the second follow-up question I wanted to ask you is that you did mention in your prepared remarks about China where you said there are about 5 fabs. How would you characterize between the need for leading edge versus the trailing edge there?

好的，好的。所以我想問您的第二個後續問題是，您在準備好的演講中確實提到了中國大約有 5 座晶圓廠。您如何描述前緣與後緣的需求？

I think that's a good question, interesting question, but it is not the case at all 5 of those customers are all leading edge. And then you have to define what is trailing edge. If you would say in logic, 28 nanometers and below, you qualify as leading edge, then all the logic is leading edge. Now for memory, at 2 DRAM initiatives there, there are definitely -- I would call them leading edge if look at the nodes that they are focusing on. And in 3D NAND, it's 3D NAND. What's leading edge? It's a number of layers, yes? And I think that is where they will start on the learning curve and will not be immediately 64 or 72 layers, but it's going to be a learning curve. Now you have to put that into perspective of why China has taken this step. China's taken this step from a very strategic point of view. In the discussion we have had, very clear that the reason why the stepping up is this, let's say, investment in capacity, leading-edge capacity, is because of the dependence that they currently have on non-Chinese companies who provide China with the right technology. And the geopolitical situation is -- has not become more stable or more reliable or more trustworthy from their point of view. So China has decided that leading technology, leading-edge technology should also be local. And that fits perfectly in the 5-year plan. If you read their 5-year plan, that's what they want. So I don't think that the investment money that will be allocated to those companies that are focusing on trailing-edge technology, that's not going to happen. It's going to be all leading edge.

我認為這是一個好問題，有趣的問題，但事實並非如此，這 5 個客戶都是領先地位的。然後你必須定義什麼是後緣。如果你說從邏輯上講，28 奈米及以下的技術屬於前沿技術，那麼所有邏輯都是前沿技術。現在對於記憶體來說，那裡有 2 個 DRAM 計劃，如果看一下他們所關注的節點，我肯定會稱它們為領先技術。在 3D NAND 中，它就是 3D NAND。什麼是前沿？它有很多層，對嗎？我認為這就是他們學習曲線的起點，不會立即達到 64 層或 72 層，但這將是一個學習曲線。現在你必須正確看待中國為何採取這項措施。中國是從戰略高度邁出這一步的。在我們進行的討論中，我們非常清楚地認識到，之所以加大對產能、前沿產能的投資，是因為他們目前依賴為中國提供合適技術的非中國公司。從他們的角度來看，地緣政治局勢並沒有變得更穩定、更可靠或更值得信賴。因此中國決定領先技術、尖端技術也應該是本土的。這與五年計劃完全契合。如果你讀過他們的五年計劃，你就會知道這就是他們想要的。因此，我認為分配給那些專注於尖端技術的公司的投資資金不會發生這種情況。這一切都將處於前沿。

The next question comes from Mr. Robert Sanders.

下一個問題來自羅伯特·桑德斯先生。

It's Deutsche Bank. Quick follow-up for Wolfgang on this deferral question. So how should we think about Q4 gross margin, given the deferred revenue into 2018? And then I guess flip of that is what -- how should we think about 2018 gross margin, given this rather skewing effect? Then I have a follow-up.

這是德意志銀行。請快速跟進 Wolfgang 關於這個延期問題。那麼，考慮到 2018 年的遞延收入，我們該如何看待第四季的毛利率？然後我想反過來想，考慮到這種相當扭曲的影響，我們該如何看待 2018 年的毛利率？然後我有一個後續問題。

I think it's a little bit early to hash out. We haven't even given a revenue guidance for Q4, and I think I'm not going to start with the gross margin guidance. I mean, in general, it's clearer next year. Even if we -- I think I've said before, if we defer revenue, in general, it makes it a little bit more difficult to get to the breakeven, but it makes it more simple to get over the 20% next year. It's a bit of a positive effect. But next year, it just depends on -- we got to just see the overall business, and it depends on the rest of the business, right? Because if -- I think Amit did the math before, if you're going from EUR 1 billion to over EUR 2 billion and even if you go from around breakeven to 20%, it's still far below the average of the rest of the business. So without a specific number, which I'm not going to give today, on the non-EUV business for 2018, I can't answer the gross margin question either. But I think the most important thing for us is what I said earlier. Our confidence in EUV volume and EUV gross margin is growing. Our gross margin in DUV, in CLS, in HMI, in applications is healthy. It's exactly where we need it to be, and therefore, we feel very comfortable that we get all the 50% in 2020. But it's too early to talk about Q4 and next year's specifics, Rob.

我認為現在討論還為時過早。我們甚至還沒有給出第四季的營收預測，我想我不會從毛利率預測開始。我的意思是，總的來說，明年會更清楚。即使我們——我想我之前說過，如果我們推遲收入，一般來說，實現收支平衡會變得更加困難，但明年超過 20% 會變得更加簡單。這有一點正面的影響。但明年，這取決於——我們必須看到整體業務，這取決於其他業務，對嗎？因為如果——我認為阿米特之前做過計算，如果你從 10 億歐元增加到 20 多爾億歐元，即使你的盈利從盈虧平衡點增加到 20%，它仍然遠低於其他業務的平均水平。因此，如果沒有關於 2018 年非 EUV 業務的具體數字（我今天不會給出），我也無法回答毛利率問題。但我認為對我們來說最重要的是我之前所說的。我們對 EUV 銷量和 EUV 毛利率的信心正在增強。我們在 DUV、CLS、HMI 和應用方面的毛利率都很健康。這正是我們所需要的，因此，我們非常放心在 2020 年實現全部 50% 的目標。但是現在談論第四季和明年的具體情況還為時過早，羅布。

Got it, fair enough. I just had a follow-up on the 250 watts demo. Looks like you're going to get that in the field by 2019. So given that that's beyond the performance spec, how will you monetize that? I assume through a software upgrade. But how should we think about the value of that software upgrade in terms of when you look out to 2019?

明白了，夠公平。我剛剛完成了 250 瓦演示的後續。看起來你將在 2019 年之前實現這一目標。那麼，鑑於這超出了性能規格，您將如何將其貨幣化？我認為是透過軟體升級。但是，展望 2019 年，我們該如何看待軟體升級的價值呢？

Yes, I think it's a good question. One correction, I think, 250 watts is not going to be 2019. We have 2 in the 250 watts now. We have the modules that will be inserted in our tool shipments by the end of year, which will provide our customers with 250 watts. So we'll be available as of next year, yes, so one. Two, the -- as you know, because you've been following the company for a long time, the value of our tool is really driven by the ability of our customers to keep cutting cost, the cost per wafer, and that -- the biggest driver there is productivity. So if, going forward, we can improve, for instance, the transmission of the lens, we can improve the transmission of the pellicle, which all takes -- currently takes a way bit of light. The -- like I said in the prepared remarks, customers are progressing on the sensitivity of the photoresist. These are all things that are actually helping to get more light on the wafer. When you get more light on the wafer, you move the wafer faster. When you move the wafer beyond 125 wafers per hour and you can guarantee that, then the tool provides more value. And that's exactly how we're going to do this, and this is a general concept which customers accept. Now when we give them -- instead of 125, 145 wafers per hour, 145, then we'll charge a higher price because we basically split the value of that 20 extra wafers, 50% for the customer, 50% for ASML. So that will also mean a higher sales price for the EUV system. But that happens after we can guarantee the over 125 wafers per hour performance, which is the function of the things that I just mentioned.

是的，我認為這是個好問題。我認為需要更正的是，250 瓦不會是 2019 年的水平。我們現在有 2 個 250 瓦的。我們的模組將在年底前插入我們的工具發貨中，為我們的客戶提供 250 瓦的功率。是的，從明年開始我們將可以提供服務。第二，如您所知，因為您長期關注該公司，我們工具的價值實際上取決於客戶不斷削減成本、每片晶圓成本的能力，而最大的驅動力是生產力。因此，如果我們能夠進一步改進，例如，鏡頭的透射率，我們就可以改進薄膜的透射率，而這一切都需要——目前需要一點光。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，客戶在光阻的靈敏度方面正在取得進步。這些都是實際上有助於讓更多的光線照射到晶圓上的東西。當晶圓上光照越多，晶圓移動得越快。當您每小時移動超過 125 個晶圓並且您可以保證這一點時，該工具就會提供更大的價值。這正是我們要做的事情，而且這是客戶接受的普遍概念。現在，當我們給他們——而不是每小時 125、145 個晶圓，145 個，那麼我們會收取更高的價格，因為我們基本上將這 20 個額外晶圓的價值分成，50% 給客戶，50% 給 ASML。這也意味著 EUV 系統的售價會更高。但這是在我們能夠保證每小時超過 125 個晶圓的性能之後，這就是我剛才提到的功能。

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm afraid we ran out of time today. If you're unable to get through onto the call and still have a question, feel free to contact ASML's Investor Relations department, and we'll get back to you as quickly as we can to answer your questions.

女士們、先生們，恐怕我們今天的時間不夠了。如果您無法接通電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 的投資者關係部門，我們將盡快回覆您並解答您的問題。

Now on behalf of ASML's board and management, I'd like to thank you all for joining the call today. And Peter, if we could formally conclude the call, that'd be great. Thank you very much.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 董事會和管理階層，感謝大家今天參加電話會議。彼得，如果我們能夠正式結束通話，那就太好了。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2017 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2017 年第二季財務績效電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。