艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2017 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 19, 2017. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2017年4月19日ASML 2017年第一季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Go ahead please, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Peter. And good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML's headquarters in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is ASML CEO Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2017 first quarter results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of the call.

謝謝你，彼得。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天與我一起在荷蘭費爾德霍芬 ASML 總部出席的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2017年第一季業績。通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路 www.asml.com 進行現場直播。電話會議結束後不久，我們將在我們的網站上提供管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想將電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡短介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good morning. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter results conference call. And before we begin the question-and-answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter, as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of our first quarter financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Wolfgang, if you will?

謝謝你，克雷格。早安.女士們、先生們，下午好，感謝大家參加我們的第一季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對最近一個季度的情況做一個概述和評論，並提出我們對未來幾季的看法。沃爾夫岡將首先回顧我們的第一季財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter. And welcome, everyone. 2017 is off to a great start with a stronger-than-expected quarter. I would like to first highlight some of last quarter's financial accomplishments and then finish with our view of the coming quarter.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。2017 年開局良好，本季業績超乎預期。我想先強調上個季度的一些財務成就，然後總結我們對下一季的展望。

Turning to the Q1 results. Net sales came in at EUR 1.94 billion. Net system sales accounted for EUR 1.22 billion, nicely balanced between logic and memory. With the addition of HMI products, we are now including metrology and inspection equipment in the system sales versus previously reporting it as service and field option revenue. This also means that metrology and inspection systems orders are from now onwards included in our booking and backlog numbers. This provides more visibility of our current and future system business in this product group.

談到第一季的業績。淨銷售額達 19.4 億歐元。淨系統銷售額為 12.2 億歐元，邏輯和記憶體之間實現了良好的平衡。隨著 HMI 產品的加入，我們現在將計量和偵測設備納入系統銷售中，而不是先前將其報告為服務和現場選項收入。這也意味著計量和檢測系統訂單從現在開始將包含在我們的預訂和積壓數量中。這為我們在該產品組中的當前和未來系統業務提供了更高的可見性。

Net service and field option sales for the quarter came in much stronger than expected at a level of EUR 728 million, driven by major DUV and Holistic Lithography upgrades. As noted, YieldStar and HMI system revenue are now reported in net system revenue. Otherwise the service and field option revenue would have been even higher at approximately EUR 790 million.

受 DUV 和整體光刻技術重大升級的推動，本季淨服務和現場選項銷售額遠高於預期，達到 7.28 億歐元。如上所述，YieldStar 和 HMI 系統收入現在計入淨系統收入。否則，服務和現場選擇權收入將更高，約 7.9 億歐元。

Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 47.6%, slightly higher than guided, driven by a higher top line and favorable mix. Gross margin includes the amortization of intangibles, as well as the effects from the fair value assessment of HMI's inventory as of the closing date of the acquisition. Overall, OpEx came in as guided, although R&D expenses came in slightly lower at EUR 315 million and SG&A expenses came in slightly higher at EUR 99 million.

本季我們的毛利率為 47.6%，略高於預期，這得益於更高的營業收入和良好的產品組合。毛利率包括無形資產的攤銷，以及收購結束日 HMI 庫存公允價值評估的影響。整體而言，營運支出符合預期，但研發費用略低，為 3.15 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用略高，為 0.99 億歐元。

Moving on to the order book. Q1 system bookings came in at EUR 1.9 billion, including orders for 3 3400 EUV systems from 2 customers. Strong bookings continued in the logic sector in support of the 10-nanometer ramps and in support of the EUV insertion at the 7-nanometer node. Memory bookings strengthened further from its strong Q4 level supporting expected year-on-year growth in the memory sector in 2017. The continuing order flow for EUV systems increases our EUV backlog to 21 systems valued at EUR 2.3 billion. Our overall systems backlog now stands at EUR 4.5 billion. In addition, we also have 4 EUV upgrade orders valued at approximately EUR 200 million. This will bring these 4 NXE systems to NXE:3400 performance. In total, we have 14 3300 and 3350 systems in the field, which are candidates for upgrades. As a reminder, system upgrades are not included in our system backlog.

繼續查看訂單簿。Q1 系統訂單金額達 19 億歐元，其中包括 2 位客戶的 3 套 3,400 EUV 系統訂單。邏輯領域的訂單持續強勁，以支援 10 奈米製程的升級以及 7 奈米節點 EUV 的引入。記憶體預訂量較第四季的強勁水準進一步增強，支持了 2017 年記憶體產業預期的年成長。EUV 系統的持續訂單流使我們的 EUV 積壓訂單增加到 21 個系統，價值 23 億歐元。我們的整體系統積壓訂單目前已達 45 億歐元。此外，我們還有4個EUV升級訂單，價值約2億歐元。這將使這 4 個 NXE 系統達到 NXE:3400 的效能。總的來說，我們在現場有 14 個 3300 和 3350 系統，它們都是升級的候選系統。提醒一下，系統升級不包括在我們的系統積壓中。

Turning to the balance sheet. Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments came in at EUR 3.84 billion. As already mentioned in January, we saw a significant level of early payments from customers in Q4 of last year, which resulted in a negative free cash flow of EUR 212 million in Q1.

轉向資產負債表。本季現金、現金等價物和短期投資季增 38.4 億歐元。正如 1 月所提到的，我們看到去年第四季客戶提前付款的情況非常嚴重，這導致第一季的自由現金流為負 2.12 億歐元。

As a reminder, in Q2, we have several extraordinary cash outflows, which will bring the overall cash balance back to our target level. Assuming approval at our AGM, we will pay a dividend of EUR 1.20 per ordinary share or approximately EUR 515 million in total to shareholders. We also have a bond maturing in Q2 with an outstanding value of EUR 238 million. And lastly, we expect to close the acquisition of 24.9% of Carl Zeiss SMT during the quarter for EUR 1 billion.

提醒一下，在第二季度，我們出現了幾次非常大的現金流出，這將使整體現金餘額回到我們的目標水平。假設在我們的年度股東大會上獲得批准，我們將向股東支付每股普通股 1.20 歐元或總計約 5.15 億歐元的股息。我們還有一筆債券將於第二季到期，未償還金額為 2.38 億歐元。最後，我們預計將在本季以 10 億歐元完成對 Carl Zeiss SMT 24.9% 股份的收購。

Based on our current business view, we see a continued strong demand for DUV, Holistic Lithography and EUV products throughout the year in both memory and logic. Our view is supported by our highest backlog ever.

根據我們目前的業務觀點，我們看到全年對記憶體和邏輯領域的 DUV、整體光刻和 EUV 產品的需求持續強勁。我們的觀點得到了我們有史以來最高積壓訂單的支持。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the second quarter of 2017. We expect continuing sales strength in Q2 with total net sales between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2 billion, including an estimated EUR 200 million of EUV revenue. We plan to ship 3 NXE:3400s in the June quarter. Our EUV shipment plan for the full year includes 12 systems and is back-end loaded. We expect our Q2 service and field options revenue to again come in above EUR 650 million, driven by continued demand for Holistic Lithography options, high-value upgrades and our growing installed base.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2017 年第二季的期望和指導。我們預計第二季銷售將繼續保持強勁，總淨銷售額將在 19 億歐元至 20 億歐元之間，其中包括預計 2 億歐元的 EUV 收入。我們計劃在六月季度發貨 3 台 NXE:3400。我們全年的 EUV 出貨計劃包括 12 個系統並且是後端加載的。我們預計，受整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的持續需求推動，我們的第二季度服務和現場選項收入將再次超過 6.5 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 43% and 44%, driven by the recognition of EUV system revenue. Excluding the EUV revenue, gross margin would be approximately at the same level as Q1. Q2 gross margin also continues to carry the effect from the purchase price allocation for the HMI acquisition. The negative impact of these purchase price allocation adjustments for Q2 is more than 1 percentage point. The impact for the full fiscal year is about EUR 90 million and will reduce to about EUR 40 million per year from 2018 onwards.

受 EUV 系統營收的推動，第二季的毛利率預計在 43% 至 44% 之間。不包括 EUV 收入，毛利率大約與第一季持平。第二季的毛利率也持續受到 HMI 收購的購買價格分配的影響。這些採購價格分配調整對第二季的負面影響超過1個百分點。整個財政年度的影響約為 9,000 萬歐元，從 2018 年起將減少到每年約 4,000 萬歐元。

R&D expenses for Q2 will be about EUR 315 million and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR 100 million. As a reminder, our share buyback program remains paused for the time being as we close our planned equity investment in Carl Zeiss SMT. The remaining approval from China is expected in time to close the transaction in Q2 2017.

第二季的研發費用約為 3.15 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 1 億歐元。提醒一下，由於我們已結束對 Carl Zeiss SMT 的計畫股權投資，我們的股票回購計畫暫時暫停。預計中國將及時批准剩餘事項，以便於 2017 年第二季完成交易。

And finally, as mentioned before, an increase of our annual dividend from EUR 1.05 to EUR 1.20 is submitted for approval at our Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on April 26.

最後，如前所述，我們將年度股息從 1.05 歐元增加到 1.20 歐元，並提交給 4 月 26 日召開的年度股東大會批准。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給你，彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, our business continues to perform well. We started the year with a very strong quarter, and we expect this positive momentum to continue throughout the year. While Wolfgang reviewed our current quarter performance and outlook for the coming quarter, I would like to provide some additional commentary on our markets and our longer-term outlook as well as provide a few highlights on our product portfolio.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如沃夫岡所強調的，我們的業務持續表現良好。我們以非常強勁的季度業績開啟了新的一年，我們預計這種積極勢頭將持續全年。當沃夫岡回顧我們本季的業績和下一季的展望時，我想對我們的市場和長期展望提供一些額外的評論，並對我們的產品組合提供一些亮點。

As seen in our first quarter results, logic demand remains solid. And our memory demand continues to strengthen with DRAM largely compensating for weak spending in 2016. Logic demand is driven by continued ramp of 10-nanometer with memory demand driven by DRAM 1x nanometer node and additions of 3D NAND capacity.

從我們第一季的業績可以看出，邏輯需求依然強勁。我們的記憶體需求持續增強，DRAM 在很大程度上彌補了 2016 年支出疲軟的影響。邏輯需求受到 10 奈米持續成長的推動，而記憶體需求則受到 DRAM 1x 奈米節點和 3D NAND 容量增加的推動。

The strength in shipments to China this quarter was driven by existing Chinese and non-Chinese customers. As for new China business, we are in discussion with multiple Chinese logic and memory customers regarding timing of system demand for their new fab projects. We expect shipments to support pilot production in these new fabs starting in 2018.

本季對華出貨量的強勁成長得益於現有的中國和非中國客戶。至於新的中國業務，我們正在與多家中國邏輯和記憶體客戶討論其新晶圓廠專案的系統需求時間。我們預計出貨量將支持從 2018 年開始的這些新工廠的試生產。

While it is still too early to provide quantitative guidance for 2017, our directional view, as expressed last quarter, remains largely unchanged. However, in terms of potential magnitude of our business, it now appears that memory demand will be up significantly as compared to prior year.

雖然現在為 2017 年提供量化指導還為時過早，但正如上個季度所表達的，我們的方向性觀點基本上保持不變。然而，就我們業務的潛在規模而言，現在看來，與去年相比，記憶體需求將大幅上升。

On the ASML product side, let me start with an update on our EUV business. We started shipment of our NXE:3400 system, which will be the EUV workhorse in volume manufacturing over the coming years. Furthermore, we continue to make progress towards our 125 wafer per hour productivity and 90% availability commitment. At the SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference in February, our customers presented their latest results confirming our progress on these metrics. The status of the EUV infrastructure was also presented by our customers. And while there's still work to be done on things like pellicle, there appear to be no major roadblocks for EUV insertion in the time frames as indicated by our customers.

在 ASML 產品方面，我先介紹我們的 EUV 業務的最新情況。我們已開始出貨 NXE:3400 系統，該系統將成為未來幾年 EUV 大量生產的主力。此外，我們繼續朝著每小時 125 片晶圓的生產率和 90% 可用性的承諾邁進。在二月的 SPIE 先進光刻會議上，我們的客戶展示了他們的最新成果，證實了我們在這些指標上的進展。我們的客戶也介紹了 EUV 基礎設施的現狀。儘管在諸如防護薄膜等方面仍有工作要做，但正如我們的客戶所指出的那樣，在規定的時間內，EUV 插入似乎沒有遇到重大障礙。

Regarding demand, we took 3 EUV production orders from 2 different customers this quarter, bringing our total EUV backlog to 21 systems. And as Wolfgang mentioned, on top of this, we booked 4 orders for a total value of around EUR 200 million for upgrades of EUV systems currently in the field to NXE:3400 production specifications. And by the way, these orders are field upgrades and do not show in our reported order backlog.

關於需求，本季我們從 2 個不同的客戶那裡獲得了 3 個 EUV 生產訂單，使我們的 EUV 積壓總量達到 21 個系統。正如 Wolfgang 所提到的，除此之外，我們還接到了 4 份訂單，總價值約為 2 億歐元，用於將目前現場的 EUV 系統升級到 NXE:3400 生產規格。順便說一句，這些訂單是現場升級，不會顯示在我們報告的訂單積壓中。

EUV order flow continues while we work to finalize a VPA with at least one of our major customers, which will translate into additional orders over the next quarters. As customers continue to assess timing of their roadmaps and firm up the layer adoption, we're beginning to get a clearer view of EUV demand for next year. The average analyst demand expectation stands at around 20 new systems shipped in 2018 which, given our current view seems reasonable, while we still have the option to build up to 24 systems next year. In DUV lithography, demand for our TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di immersion systems continues for both logic 10-nanometer and DRAM 1x nanometer nodes, bringing the installed base to more than 60 systems. We're also seeing strong demand on our KrF platform where we boosted the productivity of our XT:860 system further to 250 wafers per hour. For our 3D NAND customers, we released new options that improve focus and alignment performance of high-topography layers typical for this application. And to maximize capital efficiency, a number of customers also upgraded their immersion systems through significant announcements to productivity, imaging and overlay. And these upgrades drove significant growth in our option business, which will continue to drive growth through 2017.

EUV 訂單流仍在繼續，同時我們正在努力與至少一位主要客戶達成 VPA，這將轉化為未來幾季的更多訂單。隨著客戶繼續評估其路線圖的時間並確定層採用，我們開始更清楚地了解明年的 EUV 需求。分析師的平均需求預期是 2018 年將出貨約 20 個新系統，從我們目前的觀點來看，這似乎是合理的，而我們仍然可以選擇明年建造多達 24 個系統。在 DUV 微影領域，邏輯 10 奈米和 DRAM 1x 奈米節點對我們的 TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di 浸沒系統的需求持續成長，使安裝基數達到 60 多個系統。我們也看到 KrF 平台的需求強勁，我們將 XT:860 系統的生產率進一步提高到每小時 250 個晶圓。對於我們的 3D NAND 客戶，我們發布了新的選項，以改善此應用中典型的高地形層的聚焦和對準性能。為了最大限度地提高資本效率，許多客戶還透過重要的公告升級了他們的沉浸式系統，以提高生產力、成像和覆蓋率。這些升級推動了我們的選擇權業務的顯著成長，並將在 2017 年繼續推動成長。

In Holistic Lithography, we continue to ship our most advanced YieldStar 350 metrology systems to our customers, supporting qualification and ramp of the 10- and 7-nanometer logic node, as well as the 1x nanometer DRAM node. In addition to YieldStar metrology systems, we're also shipping HMI e-beam systems that are now reported as part of our systems revenue as Wolfgang mentioned. The integration of HMI is progressing well and customer interest in our pattern fidelity products remains high.

在整體光刻領域，我們繼續向客戶交付最先進的 YieldStar 350 計量系統，支援 10 奈米和 7 奈米邏輯節點以及 1x 奈米 DRAM 節點的鑑定和提升。除了 YieldStar 計量系統之外，我們還在運送 HMI 電子束系統，正如 Wolfgang 所提到的，這些系統現在已報告為我們系統收入的一部分。HMI 的整合進展順利，客戶對我們的模式保真度產品的興趣仍然很高。

So in summary, a great start to the year with a very solid quarter. Strong DUV demand, service and options business show a further growth momentum and continued EUV order flow provides a clear indication that this technology has now become a part of our mainstream business. We expect the positive industry environment to continue resulting in a very good year for ASML.

總而言之，今年開局良好，本季表現穩健。強勁的 DUV 需求、服務和選項業務顯示出進一步的成長勢頭，持續的 EUV 訂單流清楚地表明這項技術現在已成為我們主流業務的一部分。我們預計積極的產業環境將持續下去，為 ASML 帶來非常好的一年。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thanks, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now Peter, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝，彼得。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。（操作員指示）現在，彼得，我們可以得到您的最後指示，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

C.J. Muse, Evercore ISI. I guess first question, I was hoping to get an update from you on your expectations for adoption of EUV by DRAM. I saw on the slide deck that you reiterated 1y. Would love to hear how your discussions are progressing and how you're seeing adoption? And what kind of layer count we should be assuming at that first part of the adoption curve?

C.J. Muse，Evercore ISI。我想第一個問題是，我希望了解您對 DRAM 採用 EUV 的期望。我在幻燈片上看到您重申了 1y。很想聽聽你們的討論進度如何以及你們對採用的看法如何？那麼在採用曲線的第一部分我們應該假設什麼樣的層數呢？

Okay. Yes, like we said, we are talking to logic and memory customers. So on DRAM, the expectation is indeed -- 1y to be specific, it's the mid-teens, 16, 15-nanometer DRAM. That's what -- that would be the introduction node. And that would involve 1 to 2 layers. So you have to remember that, of course, the DRAM market is quite a significant market. So 1 to 2 layers is a decent start for EUV technology at this node. And we're talking, at least, to one customer very specifically, but other customers have shown similar interest and they will follow suit.

好的。是的，就像我們說的，我們正在與邏輯和記憶體客戶交談。因此對於 DRAM 而言，預期確實是 - 1y，具體來說是十幾歲，16、15 奈米 DRAM。這就是——這就是介紹節點。這將涉及 1 到 2 層。所以你必須記住，DRAM 市場當然也是一個相當重要的市場。因此，1 到 2 層對於此節點的 EUV 技術來說是一個很好的開始。我們正在與至少一位客戶進行非常具體的洽談，但其他客戶也表現出了類似的興趣，他們也會跟進。

Very helpful. And then I guess as my follow-up, Wolfgang, if you could give us an update on how you're seeing the trajectory for EUV gross margins. And I guess within that, would love to hear how you see the cascade effect of 100% gross margin biz as it comes through this year. And then how we should see reaching that 20% target into the calendar '18 time frame.

非常有幫助。然後我想作為我的後續問題，沃爾夫岡，您是否可以向我們介紹一下您對 EUV 毛利率走勢的看法。我想，我很想聽聽您如何看待今年 100% 毛利率業務的連鎖效應。然後，我們應該如何看待在 2018 年的時間範圍內實現 20% 的目標。

Yes. C.J., so the story there is pretty much unchanged from what we communicated at our Capital Markets Day in late last year. We were at minus 75% or so last year. Our objective is to get to 40% by 2020. We're targeting breakeven this year. There were several components to get this accomplished. One is simply volume, shipping 3x as much as last year. As you can imagine, it's the same factory producing that, so that will help. The second one was mix. Last year, we shipped 3350s. This year we're shipping 3400s. As you know from prior calls, the list price on those is approximately EUR 20 million higher. And the cost is not EUR 20 million higher, so that will help. And then of course, we have the service business where we've talked before that we're charging per wafer, which of course, ultimately is a lucrative business model, but as we are not churning out a lot of wafers right now, but have to man the systems is a -- has a significant dilutive effect on gross margin. And last but not least, we are progressing on the learning curve as well as in our own factory, the number of hours to -- it takes to put one of these things together. And also with our suppliers as well as work that we have to do in the field to upgrade these systems and bring them to the latest level. I think the expectation of 20% is still good for next year as we, again go from 12 systems to around 20 systems as mentioned earlier. And then, we made some progress last year where we can now do partial revenue recognition upon shipment. But again, it's partial revenue recognition because in case we have some performance criteria that will be met later, we got to defer some of the revenue. But on the other hand side, it will help that some revenue that we deferred in the past will come in at no cost. So that's why we believe in this year the deferral and what's coming in is roughly offsetting each other. That's why we said also in our communication that the revenue should be somewhere in the EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.2 billion range. And again, I think we are on the right path to get to 40%. And volume is the biggest driver of it.

是的。C.J.，這裡的故事與我們去年年底在資本市場日上傳達的內容幾乎沒有變化。去年我們的利潤率是負75%左右。我們的目標是到 2020 年達到 40%。我們今年的目標是實現收支平衡。要實現這一目標，需要幾個要素。一是數量，出貨量是去年的三倍。正如您所想像的，這是同一家工廠生產的，所以這會有所幫助。第二個是混合。去年，我們出貨了 3350 台。今年我們的出貨量為 3400 台。正如您從先前的通話中了解到的，這些產品的價格大約高出 2000 萬歐元。而且成本也不會高出 2000 萬歐元，所以這會有所幫助。當然，我們還有服務業務，我們之前談到過，我們是按晶圓收費的，這當然最終是一種利潤豐厚的商業模式，但由於我們目前沒有生產出大量的晶圓，但必須對系統進行管理——這對毛利率有顯著的稀釋作用。最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們在學習曲線上以及在我們自己的工廠中都在取得進步，將這些東西組裝在一起所需的時間也隨之減少。此外，我們還與供應商合作，在現場開展工作，以升級這些系統並將其提升到最新水平。我認為明年 20% 的預期仍然是好的，因為正如前面提到的，我們再次從 12 個系統增加到 20 個左右。然後，我們去年取得了一些進展，現在可以在發貨時確認部分收入。但同樣，這是部分收入確認，因為如果我們有一些以後才會滿足的績效標準，我們就必須延後部分收入。但另一方面，這將對我們過去推遲的一些收入免費帶來幫助。所以我們相信今年的延期付款和即將到來的付款大致是相互抵消的。這就是為什麼我們在溝通中也表示收入應該在 10 億歐元到 12 億歐元之間。我再次認為，我們正走在實現 40% 這一目標的正確道路上。而數量是其最大的驅動力。

The next question comes from Mr. Farhan Ahmad.

下一個問題來自法爾漢·艾哈邁德先生。

This is Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse. My first question is on the orders that you have this quarter. The [ order ] was pretty high -- strong. I just want to ask how sustainable do you think the order trend is. And in particular, on the memory order.

我是瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。我的第一個問題是關於您本季的訂單。這個指令相當高——很強。我只是想問一下，您認為訂單趨勢的可持續性如何。特別是關於記憶順序。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

In particular on the memory orders, the orders are significantly higher than anytime in the last 2 years. Can you just, a bit more color on -- is it driven by capacity additions of 1x nanometer and any kind of visibility on whether it's NAND or DRAM?

特別是在記憶體訂單方面，訂單量明顯高於過去兩年的任何時候。您能否更詳細地說明一下——它是受到 1x 奈米容量增加的推動嗎？以及它是 NAND 還是 DRAM？

Yes, just making a small note here, NAND or DRAM. The orders in Q1, yes, I think that's sustainable for the next few quarters. Given the fact that -- given the outlook that customers are giving us. And yes, it is significantly higher than the last 2 years. But you have to remember, that what we saw over the last 2 years was especially weaker order flow from DRAM-type customers. Because the DRAM market was -- over the last 18 to 24 months, not that strong. And it had to do with the fact that in 2014, we ended -- beginning of 2015 and '14 of [ high mix ] (inaudible) assumption came online, which were big fabs that actually -- we actually saw when you added them up, it was quite a significant step-up in capacity. But we haven't seen any new fabs coming online at that size since. But what we did see -- and it has to do with your NAND and DRAM question, what we did see is that given the economics of the DRAM markets over the last 2 years, we've seen leading edge litho capacity being used in NAND productions. And that has actually happened, and I think we mentioned that on previous calls also, but bringing the wafer out capacity down with double-digit percentages. Now that has created the situation clearly where demand and supply of DRAM end products was somewhat unbalanced over the last 9 months, which led to increase in DRAM prices, which is not unsurprising that now customers are back filling that capacity that they actually used to basically produce NAND over the last couple of years. And it also is an entry into your question on NAND versus DRAM. It makes it all very opaque if we have NAND and DRAM sitting next to each other. And depending on the market situations, leading-edge litho can be used for either/or. And that's why we look at memory now. And we said it also before as one segment. But looking at it, let's say, from a bit demand point of view, what we currently believe and also looking at last year's bit growth numbers, 30% in DRAM, 40% plus in NAND, looking where the capacity situation is today, looking at the price situation, I can fully understand why memory customers are filling up their open spots in their fabs to make sure that they have sufficient capacity to fulfill the demand of their customers. Now sorry for the very long answer, but you asked 3 questions, so that's why I had a longer answer.

是的，這裡只是做一個小註釋，NAND 或 DRAM。是的，我認為第一季的訂單在接下來的幾個季度是可持續的。鑑於事實－鑑於客戶給予我們的展望。是的，這比過去兩年明顯高得多。但你必須記住，過去兩年我們看到的 DRAM 類型客戶的訂單流尤其疲軟。因為 DRAM 市場在過去 18 到 24 個月內表現就沒那麼強勁。這與 2014 年結束的事實有關 - - 2015 年初和 2014 年的 [高混合]（聽不清楚）假設上線，這些實際上是大型晶圓廠 - - 當你把它們加起來時，我們實際上看到，產能有了相當大的提升。但自此以後，我們就沒再見過任何如此規模的新晶圓廠上線。但我們確實看到——這與您的 NAND 和 DRAM 問題有關，我們確實看到，考慮到過去 2 年 DRAM 市場的經濟狀況，我們已經看到領先的光刻產能被用於 NAND 生產。這實際上已經發生了，我想我們在之前的電話會議上也提到過這一點，但晶圓產能下降了兩位數的百分比。現在顯然已經出現了這樣的情況：過去 9 個月 DRAM 終端產品的供需有些不平衡，導致 DRAM 價格上漲，因此，客戶現在正在重新填補過去幾年中基本上用於生產 NAND 的產能，這並不足為奇。這也是關於 NAND 與 DRAM 的問題的切入點。如果 NAND 和 DRAM 放在一起，一切都會變得非常不透明。並且根據市場情況，尖端光刻技術可用於其中一種。這就是我們現在關注記憶的原因。我們之前也說過這是片段。但是，從位需求的角度來看，我們目前的看法，同時看看去年的位元成長數字，DRAM 成長了 30%，NAND 成長了 40% 以上，看看今天的產能情況，看看價格狀況，我完全可以理解為什麼記憶體客戶要填補他們晶圓廠的空缺，以確保他們有足夠的產能來滿足客戶的需求。抱歉，我的回答太長了，但你問了 3 個問題，所以我的回答比較長。

And if I can just squeeze a quick question. Last month, ASML signed MoU with Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Company. I believe they are one of your new emerging competitors in China. So I just wanted to understand like what exactly is the terms of the agreement? Is it something where you're just supplying the (inaudible) or is there more to it?

我可以簡單地問一個簡單的問題嗎？上個月，ASML 與上海微電子裝備股份有限公司簽署了諒解備忘錄。我相信他們是你們在中國新興的競爭對手之一。所以我只是想了解協議條款到底是什麼？您只是提供（聽不清楚）還是還有其他內容？

It's a different kind of cooperation. We're not competitors. They build lithography-type machines for a different part of the market. They are largely active in the packaging market. What we have done is effectively created a memorandum of understanding to start working together, whereby we actually use them as one of our suppliers, one of our suppliers in -- not so much in the lithography market, but more in the metrology systems area. And we have a cooperation which is focused on making sure that they will get a better understanding of how you manage a modern, complex supply chain. So it is not directly focused on areas where there could be logical competition between the 2 companies. It's in different areas.

這是一種不同類型的合作。我們不是競爭對手。他們為不同的市場領域製造光刻機。他們主要活躍於包裝市場。我們所做的是有效地創建了一份諒解備忘錄，開始合作，我們實際上將他們作為我們的供應商之一，我們的供應商之一 - 不是在光刻市場，而是在計量系統領域。我們的合作重點是確保他們更了解如何管理現代複雜的供應鏈。因此，它並不直接關注兩家公司之間可能存在合理競爭的領域。它位於不同的區域。

The next question comes from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自桑迪普·德什潘德先生。

My question is regarding your revenues for 2017. Peter, I mean when we look at the consensus ahead of today, it's about approximately EUR 7.9 billion. Last year, you did about EUR 7.6 billion. Wolfgang, you've said that you're going to do revenues between EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.2 billion in EUV. So if you took EUR 1.1 billion as the midpoint, it would mean that this year, the additional revenue outside EUV is about EUR 100 million. With DRAM particularly looking much better, are you more positive there are EUR 100 million incremental revenues from the memory market this year? And I have a short follow-up.

我的問題是關於你們 2017 年的收入。彼得，我的意思是，當我們看一下今天的共識時，它大約是 79 億歐元。去年，你們的收入約為 76 億歐元。沃爾夫岡，您說過 EUV 的收入將在 10 億歐元至 12 億歐元之間。因此，如果以 11 億歐元作為中間點，則意味著今年 EUV 以外的額外收入約為 1 億歐元。由於 DRAM 的情況看起來特別好，您是否更確信今年記憶體市場將增加 1 億歐元的收入？我還有一個簡短的後續問題。

Yes. I think...

是的。我認為...

I think Wolfgang can answer this...

我認為沃夫岡可以回答這個問題...

I'll do the revenue piece and -- I mean if you look at what we said last quarter and what we said this quarter, I mean on the -- if I go excluded EUV first, we had a very strong year on logic. And we continue to believe that that's going to be flattish year-over-year. It's good news. We have a memory business. I think we both used the words significantly up for us as what we previously believed. Last quarter, we said -- right now, I think it's flat, but it could be up. And now we think it's significantly up. I think that's more than EUR 100 million definitely. And then we have our EUV business, which was only EUR 350 million or so, which we -- like we said before think it's going to be between EUR 1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion. And then don't forget field options and services. Even with the adjustment that we made, we made EUR 2.1 billion last year. And if you add up the 2 quarters, the actual and the guidance, we're almost at EUR 1.4 billion. So we're at a significantly higher run rate there. So I -- without giving a quantitative guidance, I'd say the EUR 7.9 billion is pretty much, very much on the conservative side. I'll give you one other way to look at that maybe helpful for you, Sandeep. If you look at the first half, the actual and the guidance and you deduct that we only have EUR 200 million in EUV revenue in there. So you know in the second half, the bulk of the EUV revenue will come in, and we have not indicated that our non-EUV business is going down. So if you do these 2 exercises, I think you'll get to a pretty good range that is quite a bit higher than EUR 7.9 billion.

我會做收入部分 - 我的意思是如果你看看我們上個季度和本季度所說的內容，我的意思是 - 如果我首先排除 EUV，那麼從邏輯上講我們今年的表現非常強勁。我們仍然相信，這一數字將與去年同期持平。這是個好消息。我們有內存業務。我認為我們都使用了與我們先前所相信的完全相反的詞語。上個季度，我們說過——目前，我認為它是持平的，但它可能會上升。現在我們認為它已經大幅上升。我認為這絕對超過 1 億歐元。然後我們的 EUV 業務價值只有 3.5 億歐元左右，就像我們之前說的，我們認為它將在 10 億歐元到 12 億歐元之間。然後不要忘記現場選項和服務。即使我們做出了調整，去年我們仍然賺了 21 億歐元。如果將兩個季度的實際收入和預期收入加起來，我們的收入將接近 14 億歐元。因此我們在那裡的運行率明顯更高。因此，在不給予量化指導的情況下，我會說 79 億歐元是相當非常保守的。我會給你另一種看待這個問題的方法，也許對你有幫助，桑迪普。如果你看一下上半年的實際情況和指導，你會發現我們的 EUV 收入只有 2 億歐元。所以你知道，在下半年，大部分 EUV 收入將會出現，而且我們並沒有表示我們的非 EUV 業務正在下滑。因此，如果你進行這兩項練習，我認為你會得到一個相當不錯的範圍，比 79 億歐元高得多。

Peter, just one quick follow-up on EUV. I mean market has been focused on the top 3 customers. What about the next tier of customers in EUV? Are you engaged with them? And when would they start to placing significant orders?

彼得，我只想快速跟進 EUV 的問題。我的意思是市場一直專注於前三大客戶。EUV 的下一層客戶怎麼樣？你和他們訂婚了嗎？他們什麼時候會開始下大訂單？

Yes, we think we have orders in our backlog of more than the top 3. We have an additional 2, and so that makes it 5. And we are in discussion with 2 others, very close. So I think that is now spreading, which is clear, of course. That's -- the top 3 is now leading the pack in terms of speed of EUV introduction, but the others are clearly following.

是的，我們認為我們積壓的訂單不只前 3 名。我們還有另外 2 個，所以總數是 5 個。我們正在與另外 2 個進行討論，非常接近。所以我認為這種現象正在蔓延，這當然是顯而易見的。也就是說，就 EUV 引入速度而言，前三名目前處於領先地位，但其他公司顯然緊隨其後。

The next question comes from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

下一個問題來自皮埃爾·費拉古先生。

It's Pierre Ferragu from Bernstein. So if I kind of think about what I heard on the call is very positive developments about EUV, you have already 20 to 21 orders in the backlog. You'll have more in the next couple of quarters. So next year, like 20, 22 is also probably what we are going to see. And at the same time, I heard also that the DUV business is likely to do well in 2018 as well because, mostly because of China generating like a new area of demand in DUV. And when I look at consensus expectations, basically if I assume there is about like $2 billion of EUV revenues -- sorry, EUR 2 billion of EUV revenues with about 20 tools, then that implies the DUV business would be down about $1 billion in 2018. Do you think that kind of pullback makes sense and would reflect maybe like a sustaining of the rollout of the 10-nanometer node? Or do you think actually to 28 and could be another very strong year in DUV?

他是伯恩斯坦公司的皮耶·費拉古。因此，如果我認為我在電話中聽到的有關 EUV 的進展非常積極，那麼您已經有 20 到 21 個積壓訂單。在接下來的幾個季度裡，你將會擁有更多。所以明年，像是 20、22 年，我們可能也會看到。同時，我也聽說 DUV 業務在 2018 年也可能表現良好，主要是因為中國在 DUV 領域產生了新的需求。當我查看普遍預期時，基本上如果我假設 EUV 收入約為 20 億美元 - 抱歉，20 億歐元的 EUV 收入和大約 20 種工具，那麼這意味著 2018 年 DUV 業務將下降約 10 億美元。您是否認為這種回調是合理的並且可能反映出 10 奈米節點推出的持續性？或者您認為實際上到 28 年可能會是 DUV 又一個非常強勁的一年？

Good question. Although what you're asking me is to just give you some reasonable financial feedback on what we think 2018 is going to look like, which I'm not going to do. But qualitatively, I don't see anything at this moment in time that will bring the DUV business significantly down. There is continued strength in the memory business when I look at the strength of the logic business. And leading-edge logic needs a performance memory, so it needs DRAM, and that's clear. I don't see major new DRAM fabs coming online within the next 12 to 18 months. That means that all available spots in -- or let's say, slots in factories that can take leading-edge DUV will take leading-edge DUV given the fact that I don't see that bit demand, end demand will go down significantly. So -- and if memory will stay strong, you mentioned China. I think China longer term -- and I think I said it on the last call, medium to longer term, that will be a, is a big opportunity for the entire industry. However in 2018, what we're seeing in terms of memory projects coming online, it will be focused on, let's say, finishing the construction and then putting the first pilot lines in, which will not drive a big, let's say, addition to installed memory capacity. It will take time. I think all those memory projects are all new. You could call it greenfield, not only a greenfield fab, there are greenfield companies, is going to take a bit of time. Now, the positive thing is that, of course, all those choices for technology and for wafer fab equipment will be made in the next 12 months' time frame. So it's going to be strategically very important to be in China and to actually have -- and to sign up those Chinese customers. But the rollout of that capacity will not be in 2018. 2018 will be pilot production. And you see an acceleration of that roll out in 2019 and 2020. So -- but all in all, we do not foresee a DUV market in 2018. I think what we're currently seeing in the end market simply does not support such a negative view.

好問題。儘管您要求我僅就我們對 2018 年的展望給出一些合理的財務反饋，但我不會這麼做。但從品質來看，目前我還沒有看到任何因素會導致 DUV 業務大幅下滑。當我觀察邏輯業務的實力時，我發現記憶體業務持續表現強勁。而尖端邏輯需要性能內存，因此它需要 DRAM，這是很明顯的。我認為未來 12 到 18 個月內不會有大型新 DRAM 工廠上線。這意味著所有可用位置 - 或者說，工廠中可以採用尖端 DUV 的插槽都將採用尖端 DUV，因為我沒有看到該位需求，最終需求將大幅下降。所以——如果記憶力強的話，您提到了中國。我認為從長期來看，中國——我想我在上次電話會議上說過，從中長期來看，這將是整個行業的一大機會。然而，在 2018 年，我們看到上線的記憶體項目將主要集中在完成建設，然後投入第一批試驗生產線上，這不會大幅增加已安裝的記憶體容量。這需要時間。我認為所有這些記憶項目都是新的。你可以稱之為綠地，不僅有綠地工廠，還有綠地公司，這需要一些時間。現在，積極的一面是，當然，所有這些技術和晶圓廠設備的選擇都將在未來 12 個月內做出。因此，進入中國市場並真正擁有和簽署中國客戶具有非常重要的戰略意義。但該產能不會在 2018 年推出。2018年將進行試生產。您會發現 2019 年和 2020 年這項措施的推廣速度將會加快。所以——但總而言之，我們預計 2018 年不會出現 DUV 市場。我認為我們目前在終端市場看到的情況根本不支持這種負面觀點。

And then a very quick follow-up on China. How would you qualify demand you anticipate there? So it's a [ 19 20 ] story, okay. Is that mostly leading-edge tools? So are we going to look at high-end immersion tools mostly? Or is it going to be more leading edge in terms of demand in China?

然後我們快速跟進一下中國的情況。您如何評估那裡預期的需求？所以這是一個[ 1920 ]故事，好吧。這些大多都是尖端工具嗎？那我們主要會關注高端沉浸式工具嗎？或者說，就中國的需求而言，它會更加領先嗎？

Well, I think you will see some of it -- probably both. But I think the emphasis will be on the leading edge, will be on leading-edge logic and leading-edge memory. But that like China currently has a lot of installed capacity, which is currently 45- and 28-nanometer. And also 28-nanometer fabs will still take tools in 2018. So it will be a -- it's a bit of both. But I would say the emphasis will be on the leading edge.

嗯，我想你會看到其中的一些——可能兩者都有。但我認為重點將放在前沿技術、前沿邏輯和前沿內存上。但中國目前擁有大量裝置容量，目前為 45 奈米和 28 奈米。此外，28奈米晶圓廠在2018年仍將採用這些設備。所以這將是——兩者兼而有之。但我想說重點將放在前沿。

The next question, Mr. Gareth Jenkins.

下一個問題，加雷思‧詹金斯先生。

One question and a couple of follow-ups. Gareth Jenkins, UBS. The question I had is around the light source. I just wondered whether any of your customers are asking for Gigaphoton light source rather than your own Cymer solution on EUV. And just a couple of follow-ups, if I could, Peter, on other issues.

一個問題和幾個後續問題。瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。我的問題是關於光源的。我只是想知道是否有您的客戶要求 Gigaphoton 光源而不是您自己的 EUV 上的 Cymer 解決方案。彼得，如果可以的話，我再問幾個關於其他問題的問題。

Well, if they will be interested in using EUV way into the next decade, they will be asking for a Gigaphoton, but most of them aren't, so they want it now or they want it soon. It's the only available EUV source, and Gigaphoton is potentially something for the future, but I would say, way into the next decade.

好吧，如果他們有興趣在未來十年內使用 EUV，他們就會要求 Gigaphoton，但大多數人不會，所以他們現在就想要它，或者很快就想要它。它是唯一可用的 EUV 光源，Gigaphoton 有潛力成為未來的東西，但我想說，它還得等到下一個十年。

Okay. And Wolfgang, I just wanted to clarify, EUR 200 million of EUV revenue in Q2, EUR 800 million to EUR 1 billion in H2. The EUR 800 million to EUR 1 billion, that will come at 0 gross margin? Is that the expectation or allowing for some catch up, it will come at 0 gross margin?

好的。沃夫岡，我只是想澄清一下，第二季的 EUV 收入為 2 億歐元，下半年為 8 億歐元至 10 億歐元。8 億歐元到 10 億歐元，毛利率為 0？這是預期還是允許一些追趕，其毛利率將為 0？

Yes, for modeling purposes, I would not distinguish between the first half and the second half, it's making it too complicated.

是的，出於建模目的，我不會區分前半部分和後半部分，這會使它變得太複雜。

The next question is coming from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna International. Peter, can you please give us an update on HMI. When would you expect the dual beam product to be available for evaluation? And I have a follow-up.

薩斯奎漢納國際公司的 Mehdi Hosseini。彼得，您能否向我們提供有關 HMI 的最新資訊。您預計雙光束產品何時可以進行評估？我還有一個後續問題。

Well, we'll see the first integrated product, that's a combination of the ASML product and competency with HMI shipped to the first pilot customers by the end of the year, the end of this year, beginning of next year. And (inaudible) dual beam is probably you'll refer to multi-beam. Well, our plan is to have that available relatively soon, but we first need to finish the development. It won't be this year. It will be 2018 at the earliest. But more important is I think that we have the whole concept of using the ASML Holistic Lithography capability with the inspection capability of HMI and combine it into one product. That will be available much sooner. I think that's the most important part, and then multi-beam is just a natural extension of this product. And like I said, this combined product the first shipment is to be started at the end of the year to the first pilot customers.

好吧，我們將看到第一款整合產品，它是 ASML 產品和 HMI 能力的結合，並將在今年年底、今年年底或明年年初交付給首批試點客戶。而且（聽不清楚）雙光束可能就是您所指的多光束。嗯，我們的計劃是盡快推出它，但我們首先需要完成開發。今年不會了。最早也要到2018年了。但更重要的是，我認為我們有一個整體概念，就是利用 ASML 整體光刻能力與 HMI 的偵測能力，並將其結合成一個產品。這項功能很快就會推出。我認為這是最重要的部分，多光束只是產品的自然延伸。正如我所說，這款組合產品的首批貨物將於今年底開始向首批試點客戶出貨。

Sure. And then I have a follow-up on the EUV 12 system shipment this year, maybe as high as 24 next year. Would that be fair to assume that the systems are going to be for 7-nanometer maybe insertion for a few layers? And then shipment in 2019 and on will include maybe 1 or 2 layer for DRAM, and then as you look into 5-nanometer logic, then the number of critical layers that would use EUV would go higher, and that's how we [ grow ] the doubling playing out? So 12 system this year, 24 next year, the 7-nanometer introduction and then as we go into '19 and '20, the doubling is driven by DRAM and higher critical layer as you migrate to 5-nanometer logic. Is that fair?

當然。然後我對今年的EUV 12系統出貨量進行了跟踪，明年可能會高達24台。假設系統將用於 7 奈米並可能插入幾層，這公平嗎？然後，2019 年及以後的出貨量可能包括 1 層或 2 層的 DRAM，然後當您研究 5 奈米邏輯時，使用 EUV 的關鍵層數量將會更高，這就是我們實現翻倍成長的方式？因此，今年是 12 個系統，明年是 24 個系統，引入 7 奈米技術，然後隨著我們進入 2019 年和 2020 年，隨著遷移到 5 奈米邏輯，DRAM 和更高的關鍵層將推動翻倍。這樣公平嗎？

So I think it's a little bit more complex than that, because 7-nanometer is not ending in 2018. I think as you will see the production ramp for our customers in late 2018, '19, and it will continue into 2020. But you will be seeing layers on top -- these node layers will be on top of each other, like we discussed earlier on these calls. What we're currently seeing is that you all see an acceleration of a capacity ramp for a new node by the leading customers, which is almost like a camelback. It's like a hump, and now you have a very long tail. Now that long tail in 7-nanometer will be extending into 2020 and 2021, but it is not by the 1 or 2 leaders in logic, but there are also followers that will move into that 7-nanometer node, and they will start using the EUV in that time frame. So you will see layer upon layer. So this is not nice clean-cut end of 7-nanometer node followed by a 5 nanometer. It's going to be layered. On memory, you said 2019, DRAM 1 or 2 layers. Yes, in production, but I think we'll see probably earlier adoption of 1 or 2 layers in DRAM than 2019. And this will also be some of the systems that you referred to, the 12 systems 2017 and potentially 20 systems in 2018 will be used for DRAM 1 or 2 layer production on this mid-teen node.

所以我認為情況比這更複雜一些，因為 7 奈米不會在 2018 年結束。我認為，如您所見，我們的客戶的產量將在 2018 年末、2019 年有所提升，並且這種勢頭將持續到 2020 年。但是您將看到頂層的層 - 這些節點層將位於彼此之上，就像我們之前在這些呼叫中討論的那樣。我們目前看到的是，主要客戶正在加速新節點的容量提升，這幾乎就像駱駝回來了一樣。它就像一個駝峰，現在你有一條很長的尾巴。現在，7 奈米的長尾效應將延伸至 2020 年和 2021 年，但這並不是由邏輯上的 1 或 2 個領導者所主導，而是有追隨者將進入 7 奈米節點，並且他們將在那個時間範圍內開始使用 EUV。所以你會看到一層又一層。因此，這並不是 7 奈米節點和 5 奈米節點的完美結合。它將是分層的。關於內存，您說2019年，DRAM 1層或2層。是的，在生產中，但我認為我們可能會在 2019 年之前看到 DRAM 中採用 1 層或 2 層。這也將是您所提到的一些系統，2017 年的 12 個系統和 2018 年可能 20 個系統將用於這個中十幾歲節點上的 DRAM 1 層或 2 層生產。

Is that why they haven't finalized the option part of the package? What they have booked so far is just for the equipment and options are finalized later?

這就是他們尚未最終確定該方案選項部分的原因嗎？他們到目前為止預訂的只是設備，選項稍後會最終確定嗎？

Well, this is specifically to one customer where we have the tool price is indeed fixed, and then the options is really the commercial negotiations on what do you want in terms of options which is specific to their production process and to the -- you could say the design of the customer specifically. And those are options that are add-ons that they need in their production process, which of course for us is good business and for the customer always an area where they think they can have some purchasing advantages. So that's just a matter of time, but I don't think you can draw any conclusions other than that.

嗯，這是針對一位客戶而言的，我們的工具價格確實是固定的，然後選項實際上是商業談判，根據他們的生產流程和具體客戶的設計，你想要什麼選項。這些選項是他們在生產過程中需要的附加元件，這對我們來說當然是好的業務，對於客戶來說，他們始終認為這是一個可以獲得一些購買優勢的領域。所以這只是時間問題，但我認為除此之外你無法得出任何結論。

The next question, Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題，安德魯·加德納先生。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. Peter, I was just interested in following up a bit more on some of those comments you were making on the EUV decision-making process. You highlighted during your prepared comments, the public comments from all 3 of your lead customers acknowledging the progress that's been made on EUV not only by yourselves but also across the ecosystem that was fairly well publicized at SPIE. Yet, we are still not seeing all 3 step up sort of equally in terms of orders. I think TSMC has been pretty clear and consistent with what they are intending to do over the last couple of quarters. We can see some of that in your backlog. Samsung also seem to have been clear in their statements, yet as you just highlighted, we don't yet have the volume purchase agreement or indeed the sort of volume orders that you'd highlighted or that you had perhaps expected in the first quarter. And then, finally, Intel, they were the first to sign a VPA 2 years ago now, and yet they still haven't really acted on it. And they had publicly said they would do so when the technology was ready. And again, publicly, they seem to admit that it is, yet they haven't stepped up in terms of their order rates. And given what you described in terms of their 2019 ramps, I'm just wondering sort of why you think we are seeing such sort of different positioning from these lead customers and with a closing order window later this year, where's your confidence level that indeed the 2 who are lagging are going to step up over the next, say, 2 quarters?

我是巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。彼得，我只是想進一步了解您對 EUV 決策過程的一些評論。您在準備好的評論中強調，所有 3 位主要客戶的公開評論都承認 EUV 方面取得的進展，不僅是你們自己，而且是整個生態系統，這在 SPIE 上得到了相當廣泛的宣傳。然而，我們仍然沒有看到這三家公司在訂單方面取得同等進展。我認為台積電在過去幾季中對其計劃的表述非常明確且一致。我們可以在您的積壓工作中看到其中的一些內容。三星似乎也在他們的聲明中明確表示，但正如您剛才強調的那樣，我們還沒有達成批量採購協議，或者您強調的或您在第一季度預期的那種批量訂單。最後，英特爾是兩年前第一個簽署自願協議的公司，但他們至今仍未真正採取行動。他們曾公開表示，當技術成熟時他們就會這麼做。而且，他們似乎在公開場合承認了這一點，但他們並沒有提高訂單率。鑑於您所描述的 2019 年產量增長情況，我只是想知道，您認為我們為什麼會看到這些主要客戶的定位如此不同，並且隨著今年晚些時候訂單窗口的關閉，您的信心水平如何？這兩家落後的公司確實會在接下來的兩季內加快腳步？

Well, to be honest, I don't think customers are really lagging, one. But they have different areas of focus, and they have different road maps and timing of road maps, which they would like to execute and also the size at which they want to do it is also different. So this is not a homogeneous pack. This is heterogeneous, 3 different customers, 3 different road maps, 3 different ways in which they want to execute this. But I think you are absolutely correct when you refer to the public statements, which are very convincing. But it is only the public statements. As you can imagine, we are in a very close contact with them, and we're also seeing what they're doing in preparation of that EUV ramp. And that's real tangible. I mean, those are factories. Those are EUV pedestals. Those are -- that's EUV infrastructure. It's being built and being put into place into those fabs. So that is also tangible, which is not that visible, but to us, it is. On the negotiation process, that's also different per customer. For instance, one of those customers doesn't have a volume purchase agreement yet, but they have orders in our backlog. So they order tools without the VPA. But the volume purchase agreement is really to determine, in their best interest, what the pricing is on a certain volume. Now that is a commercial negotiation, which -- as Mehdi asked in the previous question, is also a matter of how many options do you want and what do you want to pay for those options. So these things are commercial negotiations, which are not fully detached from the planning of what they want to do, but it is a different process. So you have the planning process for the production, which we're pretty close to, which actually drives our own planning, our own production planning and you have the commercial process. And that commercial process ends when it ends, and that's where we are. So I think in summary, 3 different customers, not homogeneous in the way they look at their road maps, the timing of their road maps, not homogeneous in the way that they negotiate and not homogeneous also in the speed at which they want to do something and the speed of their ramp. So this is what we have to take into consideration, but -- again, it's -- I'll try to put some color on what we said before, and what we said before is that we see this ramp of EUV very clearly coming on the 7-nanometer, which means 12 units this year, which are now, say, around 20 units next year, and we could see a further doubling in the years thereafter when we look at the customer road maps and their execution planning. And I think that is the most important to mention right now.

嗯，說實話，我並不認為客戶真的落後了。但他們的關注領域不同，路線圖和時間表也不同，他們希望執行的路線圖和時間表以及他們希望執行的規模也不同。所以這不是一個同質包。這是異質的，3 個不同的客戶，3 種不同的路線圖，他們想要以 3 種不同的方式執行此操作。但我認為，您提到的公開聲明是完全正確的，這些聲明非常有說服力。但這只是公開聲明。你可以想像，我們與他們保持著非常密切的聯繫，我們也在觀察他們為 EUV 升級所做的準備。這是真實存在的。我的意思是，那些是工廠。那些是 EUV 基座。這些是 EUV 基礎設施。它正在建造並安裝到這些晶圓廠中。所以這也是有形的，雖然不是那麼明顯，但對我們來說，它是明顯的。在談判過程中，每個客戶的情況也不同。例如，其中一位客戶尚未簽訂大量採購協議，但他們的訂單已積壓在我們的訂單中。因此他們訂購的工具不包含 VPA。但批量購買協議實際上是為了他們的最佳利益而確定一定數量的定價。現在這是一場商業談判，正如 Mehdi 在上一個問題中所問，這也是一個你想要多少個選項以及你願意為這些選項支付多少錢的問題。所以這些都是商業談判，與他們想要做的事情的規劃並沒有完全脫離，但這是一個不同的過程。因此，您擁有生產規劃流程，我們已經非常接近流程，這實際上推動了我們自己的規劃、我們自己的生產規劃，並且您擁有商業流程。當商業過程結束時，它就結束了，這就是我們所處的階段。所以我認為總而言之，3 個不同的客戶，在看待路線圖的方式、路線圖的時間安排上並不一致，在談判的方式上並不一致，在他們想要做某事的速度和提升速度上也並不一致。所以這是我們必須要考慮的，但是——再說一次——我會嘗試對我們之前說過的話進行一些說明，我們之前說過，我們非常清楚地看到 EUV 在 7 奈米製程上的增長，這意味著今年有 12 個單位，明年大約有 20 個單位，當我們查看客戶路線圖及其執行計劃時，我們可以看到此後幾年進一步翻一番。我認為這是目前最重要的一點。

Okay. That's very helpful. Also, just a quick follow-up for you, Wolfgang. The guidance that you, or sort of the 1Q installed base revenue and the guidance you just gave for 2Q, clearly, very rapid growth there. Are you still saying that, that sort of revised installed base revenue of about EUR 2.1 billion last year, is that still a 8% to 10% revenue growth target for '17? It's seems you are tracking significantly ahead of that at the moment, given the one half guidance as you've already mentioned. What kind of growth should we be thinking there?

好的。這非常有幫助。另外，我只是想快速跟進一下你的情況，沃夫岡。您所給出的第一季安裝基礎收入指引以及第二季指引都明顯顯示出非常快速的成長。您仍舊認為，去年修訂後的安裝基礎收入約為 21 億歐元，這仍然是 2017 年 8% 至 10% 的營收成長目標？鑑於您已經提到的一半指導，目前看來您已經遠遠領先於此。我們應該考慮什麼樣的成長？

Yes. It certainly looks like -- we said in average we think this business is going to grow 10% over the next couple of years. But as customers are optimizing their installed base, they are using some of these performance enhancing options, very capital efficient for them. And you're right, I mean, 728 plus 650, I don't see this deteriorating much in the second half. You can do the math. It will very likely be quite a bit above 10% this year.

是的。看起來確實如此——我們平均認為這項業務在未來幾年將成長 10%。但隨著客戶優化其安裝基礎，他們正在使用其中一些效能增強選項，這對他們來說非常具有資本效率。你說得對，我的意思是，728 加上 650，我認為下半年的情況不會惡化太多。你可以算一下。今年這數字很可能會遠高於10%。

The next question, Mr. Timothy Arcuri.

下一個問題，提摩西‧阿庫裡先生。

Cowen. I guess I had 2. First of all, Wolfgang, I wanted to ask about the 2018 EUV comments. I know you still have 24 slots, that has not changed. And I think last call, you said that you'd be totally full for those slots and even have some backlog by the end of the year for 2019 shipments. So I guess, I'm wondering why you'd only ship 20 systems next year versus 24. It would seem like you have to ship -- you are like totally full on those slots. Why wouldn't you ship all those slots versus only 20. I'm just getting some questions from investors that it seems like a downtick, and I just wanted you to address that.

考恩。我想我有兩個問題。首先，Wolfgang，我想問一下 2018 年 EUV 的評論。我知道您仍然有 24 個名額，這一點沒有改變。我認為上次您說過這些時段的訂單已經滿了，甚至到年底還會有一些 2019 年發貨的積壓訂單。所以我想知道為什麼你們明年只發售 20 套系統而不是 24 套。看起來你必須發貨——你的這些插槽已經滿了。為什麼你們不運送所有這些插槽，而只運送 20 個呢？我剛剛收到一些投資者的疑問，他們說這似乎是一個下滑趨勢，我只是想讓你回答這個問題。

I think when you look at the 20 -- you have to remember that we also booked 4 upgrade orders. So there are customers that are taking those tools, those 3350s and 3300s out of the R&D. They want them upgraded and put them into production. So that adds another 4. So we always said when we look at our production capacity and we look at the road map and the timing of the road maps that our customers are currently talking about in terms of their road maps ramps and look at that time, we said we will have to use that 24 capacity. Well, 4 of them at least are now being upgraded. So that's basically taking out of R&D and then put into production, which is probably efficient use of the capital. It also means that we need to allocate some of our production people to upgrade in the field, not in our factory, but in the field. Which also has an impact on our own capability. Because you actually have people in the field, competent people, production people, that are in the field doing these open-heart surgeries. So it is a mix now. I want to say new systems and customers wanting those upgrades, because it is capital efficient.

我想當你看到這 20 個時——你必須記住我們還預訂了 4 個升級訂單。因此，有些客戶將這些工具（3350 和 3300）從研發中取出。他們希望對其進行升級並投入生產。這樣就又增加了 4 個。所以我們總是說，當我們查看我們的生產能力並查看路線圖以及我們的客戶目前正在談論的路線圖的時間安排時，就他們的路線圖坡道而言，看看那個時候，我們說我們將必須使用那 24 個產能。嗯，其中至少有 4 個現在正在升級。所以這基本上就是從研發中拿出資金然後投入生產，這可能是對資本的有效運用。這也意味著我們需要分配一些生產人員到現場進行升級，不是在我們的工廠，而是在現場。這也對我們自身的能力產生了影響。因為實際上有現場人員、有能力的人員、生產人員在現場進行這些開胸心臟手術。所以現在它是混合的。我想說的是，新系統和客戶都希望進行這些升級，因為這樣可以提高資本效率。

Got it, Peter. That's helpful. Very, very helpful. I guess my follow-up was just on how to think about China timing. I know you said that you expect shipments to support pilot production, I think you said in 2018. Does that mean, for the indigenous China projects, does that mean that you'll ship tools in the second half of this year for pilot production for them next year? Or does that mean that you won't ship tools to these fabs until next year?

明白了，彼得。這很有幫助。非常非常有幫助。我想我的後續問題只是關於如何思考中國時機。我知道您說過，您預計出貨量將支持試點生產，我想您是在 2018 年說的。這是否意味著，對於中國本土項目，您將在今年下半年運送工具，以便明年進行試生產？或者這是否意味著您要到明年才會向這些晶圓廠運送工具？

It's a bit of a mixed bag. I think the first tools will ship towards the end of this year and then will continue shipping in the first half of 2018. So before that's all installed and the production process is qualified, you won't see any output out of those pilots fabs, I would say, way into the second half of 2018.

這有點混亂。我認為第一批工具將在今年年底發貨，然後將在 2018 年上半年繼續發貨。因此，在所有這些安裝完畢並且生產流程合格之前，我想說，直到 2018 年下半年，你都不會看到這些試點工廠有任何產出。

The next question, Mr. Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題，Amit Harchandani 先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citigroup. I just wanted to come back to the topic of EUV shipments, orders and lead times. And I was hoping if you could help me with some math here. You've got 21 tools in your backlog at the end of the Q, first quarter. My understanding is the lead times are including the supply chain about 18 months, and if you're looking at shipments cumulatively in 2017 for the rest of the year and what you said for 2018, it's about 30 tools -- 30, 32 tools to be shipped. So does that mean you need around 9 to 10 orders coming through by the end of June? Or is it okay the orders come in later and your lead times will get shorter allowing you to fulfill or meet the shipment target by the end of 2018?

花旗集團的阿米特‧哈昌達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。我只是想回到 EUV 出貨量、訂單和交貨時間的話題。我希望你能幫我解決一些數學問題。截至第一季末，您的積壓工具有 21 種。我的理解是，交貨時間包括供應鏈在內大約需要 18 個月，如果你查看 2017 年剩餘時間的累積出貨量以及你所說的 2018 年出貨量，那麼大約需要出貨 30 到 32 件工具。那麼這是否意味著您需要在 6 月底之前收到大約 9 到 10 個訂單？或者，訂單晚點到來，您的交貨時間會縮短，以便您在 2018 年底之前完成或達到出貨目標，這樣可以嗎？

First of all, I think you see independent of any VPAs you see -- you'll see a decent order flow in the next quarter, although the quarter we just started. Then it's not a hard and fast rule, right, where you have 18 months. And it's not just the order that's the communication between us and the customer, I mean we are sitting together with these customers on a weekly basis. And just because we don't have a piece of paper that says VPA because some final detail on the term and condition is not done means that we don't have a very good view on what these customers need in which quarter in the next year. And it comes down a little bit to trust as well, right, where you trust the forecast is eventually translating into an order. Of course, in the long run, you've got to have the discipline to have the orders coming in because we can certainly not be the inventory holder of the industry. But I think we are in pretty good shape. You'll see orders in Q2 with pretty good forecast on it.

首先，我認為你會看到，無論你看到什麼 VPA，你都會在下一季看到不錯的訂單流，儘管這個季度我們才剛開始。那麼這不是一個硬性規定，對吧，你有 18 個月的時間。這不僅僅是訂單，也是我們和客戶之間的溝通，我的意思是我們每週都會和這些客戶坐在一起。只是因為我們沒有一張寫著 VPA 的文件，因為條款和條件的一些最終細節還沒有確定，這意味著我們不能很好地了解這些客戶在明年哪個季度需要什麼。這也歸結為一點信任，對吧，你相信預測最終會轉化為訂單。當然，從長遠來看，你必須有紀律地接收訂單，因為我們肯定不能成為該行業的庫存持有者。但我認為我們的狀況非常好。您會看到第二季的訂單預測相當不錯。

And I think in addition to what Wolfgang said, Amit, I said in earlier calls, it is our focus to have the orders needed for shipment in 2018 in the backlog by the end of this year. I mean, it is exactly what Wolfgang said, it is not a piece of paper that drives us to start ordering lenses and the long lead time items for the EUV source. It's really the weekly connection that we have with our customers and the almost weekly, or you can say, monthly updates that we're getting on that EUV planning. That is driving this. So we would be looking at getting in 2017 all the orders that we need for 2018.

我認為，除了沃夫岡、阿米特在之前的電話會議中所說的之外，我們的重點是在今年年底前完成 2018 年發貨所需的訂單。我的意思是，正如沃爾夫岡所說的那樣，並不是一張紙促使我們開始訂購鏡頭和 EUV 來源的長交貨期物品。我們實際上每週都會與客戶保持聯繫，幾乎每週，或者說每月都會獲得有關 EUV 規劃的更新。這就是推動這項進程的原因。因此，我們希望在 2017 年獲得 2018 年所需的所有訂單。

And just maybe as a follow-up on the lead times, could you give us a sense of how we should think about the lead times contracting as we look out over the next 2 to 3 years? And what are the key parameters that will help you get them down besides of course experiential learning?

也許作為對交貨時間的後續問題，您能否告訴我們，在未來 2 到 3 年內，我們應該如何看待交貨時間的縮短？除了體驗式學習之外，還有哪些關鍵參數可以幫助您掌握這些知識？

Yes, I think it is experiential learning. It is the learning curve. And we will be looking at halving the lead time over the next 3 years, so I said till the end of the decade. So by 2020, we should have half the lead time. Which is by the way, this is what we did with DUV. And with DUV -- as a matter of fact, we are reducing the factory cycle time in our factory and the overall lead time of a DUV system still. So it is a continuous process, but it is continuous learning. It's almost exponential learning. That's what it is. That will drive the lead time down.

是的，我認為這是體驗式學習。這是學習曲線。我們將在未來 3 年內將交貨時間縮短一半，所以我說直到這個十年的結束。因此到 2020 年，我們的交付週期應該可以縮短一半。順便說一下，這就是我們用 DUV 所做的事。事實上，透過 DUV，我們正在縮短工廠的周期時間以及 DUV 系統的整體交付週期。所以這是一個持續的過程，也是一個持續的學習。這幾乎是指數級的學習。就是這樣。這將縮短交貨時間。

The next question is coming from Mr. Douglas Smith.

下一個問題來自道格拉斯·史密斯先生。

Agency Partners. The question I had actually is on high NA. I saw in one of the slides at SPIE, a diagram of what high NA looks like. It looks like a much larger machine than the current EUV system, then the specs are much higher and so on. And have you already thought what the price of such a machine is? Are we looking at like a EUR 200 million kind of number for high NA?

代理合作夥伴。我的問題實際上是關於高 NA 的。我在 SPIE 的一張投影片中看到了高 NA 的圖表。它看起來比目前的 EUV 系統大得多，規格也高得多等等。您是否已經想過這種機器的價格是多少？我們是否在考慮 2 億歐元的高 NA 數字？

Yes, EUR 200 million plus.

是的，2億多歐元。

Okay. And maybe a little bit in the same direction, do you have people who are willing to do double patterning for EUV? Or is that something they want to avoid and would prefer to use high NA?

好的。也許方向有點相同，你們有願意為 EUV 做雙重圖案化的人嗎？或者這是他們想要避免的事情並且更願意使用高 NA？

Yes, I think this is a very good question, I think this exactly goes down to the economics of high-end manufacturing. It is all about the cost for a leading edge transistor. And now the question is, can you do that through multiple patterning or double patterning EUV, which would cut the productivity in half or would you do that with basically a shrink capability with higher productivity through a high NA tool. And the economics that we have calculated on the high NA tool is clearly preferring a high NA solution instead of double patterning EUV when you go to the 3-nanometer node. So as far as we are concerned, looking at the specs, high NA is the preferred economical solution.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的問題，我認為這只是涉及高端製造業的經濟學。這一切都與尖端晶體管的成本有關。現在的問題是，您是否可以透過多次圖案化或兩次圖案化 EUV 來實現這一點，這會將生產率降低一半，或者您是否可以透過高 NA 工具以更高的生產率實現基本上的縮小能力來實現這一點。而且，根據我們在高 NA 工具上計算出的經濟效益，當進入 3 奈米節點時，我們顯然更傾向於採用高 NA 解決方案，而不是雙重圖案化 EUV。因此就我們而言，從規格來看，高 NA 是首選的經濟解決方案。

All right. And so just to clarify my first question, more or less, EUV was 2x the price of DUV, so you expect high NA to be about 2x the price of today's EUV?

好的。因此，我只是想澄清我的第一個問題，EUV 的價格大約是 DUV 的 2 倍，所以您預計高 NA 的價格大約是當今 EUV 的 2 倍？

That's a decent assumption.

這是一個合理的假設。

The next question is coming from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

It's Bank of America. I have a quick follow-up. My questions have largely been answered. Wolfgang, could you give us some color on the total amount of deferred revenue that you have on the balance sheet related to EUV that you haven't still recognized in the P&L?

它是美國銀行。我有一個快速的後續行動。我的問題大部分已經得到解答。沃夫岡，您能否向我們介紹一下資產負債表上與 EUV 相關的尚未在損益表中確認的遞延收入總額？

I want to say it's -- the overall deferred revenue is about EUR 1.2 billion. I'd say EUV is probably somewhere in the EUR 200 million range or so.

我想說的是——整體遞延收入約 12 億歐元。我認為 EUV 的價格大概在 2 億歐元左右。

The next question is coming from Mr. Robert Sanders.

下一個問題來自羅伯特·桑德斯先生。

Deutsche Bank. First question would just be on DRAM. As I understand it, Samsung is exploring DRAM insertion for EUV for performance DRAM only, and that they were deferring the decision of commodity DRAM. Is that something you recognize? And I'm just wondering is that what you are factoring into your forecast?

德意志銀行。第一個問題是關於 DRAM 的。據我了解，三星正在探索將 EUV 用於性能 DRAM，並且他們正在推遲商品 DRAM 的決定。這是你認識的嗎？我只是想知道這是您在預測中考慮的因素嗎？

We don't know the exact application of what type of product it's going to be used on. The only thing that we know it's on this particular mid-teens node and whether that's used for commodity DRAM or for performance DRAM, I suppose it's going to be supported -- it's going to be performance DRAM. That's seems the most logical. But I cannot give you a definitive answer on this, because you really have to ask Samsung, and obviously that you did. So we have to believe what our customer say.

我們不知道它將用於什麼類型的產品的具體用途。我們唯一知道的是它在這個特定的十幾歲節點上，無論它是用於商品 DRAM 還是性能 DRAM，我想它都會得到支持 - 它將是性能 DRAM。這似乎是最合乎邏輯的。但我無法就此給出明確的答案，因為你必須問三星，而且顯然你也確實問了。所以我們必須相信客戶說的話。

Got it. I mean I'm only asking because performance DRAM is about 1/3 of capacity in DRAM. So the second question would just be on TSMC and other customers. I mean I think TSMC is the only customer that's actually moved EUV tools into the manufacturing line. I was just wondering when you thought Samsung and Intel would have to move tools into the actual line to meet insertion at 7-nanometer.

知道了。我的意思是我之所以問這個問題是因為效能 DRAM 大約佔 DRAM 容量的 1/3。所以第二個問題只是關於台積電和其他客戶。我的意思是，我認為台積電是唯一真正將 EUV 工具引入生產線的客戶。我只是想知道，您認為三星和英特爾何時必須將工具轉移到實際生產線上以滿足 7 奈米的插入要求。

Well, I think this is really dependent on how they plan the introduction and the ramp of their nodes. So it is really -- it is a question that we can't answer for the customers. If you ask them and they give you a timing and one timing looks more aggressive than the other timing, then you can probably draw a conclusion on what they believe the need of their customers is. And so it's not up to us to draw any conclusions there. It's really driven by how they look at their own road map and their customer demands that will determine when they start to ramp up and put tools into production and start ramping capacity.

嗯，我認為這實際上取決於他們如何規劃節點的引入和提升。所以這確實是我們無法為客戶解答的問題。如果您詢問他們並且他們給您一個時間安排，並且一個時間安排看起來比另一個時間安排更具侵略性，那麼您可能可以得出一個結論，即他們認為他們的客戶的需求是什麼。因此我們無權就此得出任何結論。這實際上取決於他們如何看待自己的路線圖和客戶需求，這將決定他們何時開始增加投入、將工具投入生產並開始提高產能。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question. We're going to squeeze one more. If you are unable to get through on the call and still have questions, feel free to reach out to the IR Department. We'll be around for a while.

女士們、先生們，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。我們要再擠一個。如果您無法接通電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 IR 部門。我們會在這裡待一段時間。

The last question is coming from Mr. Francois Meunier.

最後一個問題來自 Francois Meunier 先生。

So I'm not going to ask why 20 or 21 or 22 next year, because if we roll back in time, probably no one would have believed you would have even shipped more than 10 next year. No, the question really is about the gross margin. 47.6%, with no EUV revenues this year. If my calculations are correct, it's something like 500 bps, like higher than last year or something. So can you help us to understand what the bridge is between last year and this year? Is it really around the mix effect with more services revenues and more options and stuff like that? Or is it also because like -- even at the tool level your margins are going higher?

所以我不會問為什麼明年是 20 或 21 或 22，因為如果我們回顧過去，可能沒有人會相信你明年的出貨量會超過 10。不，問題其實在於毛利率。47.6%，今年沒有EUV收入。如果我的計算正確的話，它大概是 500 個基點，比去年高出一些。那麼你能幫助我們了解去年和今年之間的橋樑是什麼嗎？這是否真的與更多服務收入、更多選擇等的混合效應有關？還是因為－即使在工具層面，您的利潤率也在提高？

Yes, I think, Francois, there's 2 elements. First of all, our revenue in the first quarter was 46% higher this Q1 when compared to last Q1. So we had quite a bit of volume effect there. Plus, of course, our mix is developing, right? I mean, you see more Holistic Lithography as a percent of revenue, you see HMI with the full quarter in there. And you see indeed, as you mentioned, you see a lot of upgrade options that have very, very high margins. So it's a combination of all of the above.

是的，弗朗索瓦，我認為有兩個要素。首先，我們第一季的營收與去年第一季相比成長了 46%。因此，我們在那裡獲得了相當大的音量效應。另外，當然，我們的組合正在發展，對嗎？我的意思是，你會看到整體光刻技術佔收入的百分比更高，你會看到 HMI 佔整個季度的收入。正如您所說，您確實看到許多升級選項具有非常非常高的利潤率。所以它是以上所有內容的組合。

Now on behalf of ASML's board and management, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. And operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 董事會和管理階層，感謝大家今天的出席。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2017 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. You may -- thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2017 年第一季財務業績電話會議到此結束。您可以—感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。