艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2017 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on October 18, 2017. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2017 年 10 月 18 日舉行的 2017 年第三季財務結果電話會議。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Go ahead, please, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML headquarters in Veldhoven in Netherlands is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and ASML's CFO, Wolfgang Nickl.

謝謝你，Peter。下午好。早安，各位女士、各位先生。我是 Craig DeYoung，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同在荷蘭費爾德霍芬（Veldhoven）ASML 總部出席的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及 ASML 財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2017 third quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com, and the transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2017 年第三季業績。本次電話會議時間為 60 分鐘，並將依收到提問的順序回答問題。本次電話會議也將在 asml.com 透過網路進行即時轉播；管理層開場致詞的逐字稿與電話會議重播，將於本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal security laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我建議您查閱今日新聞稿與網站上簡報中所載的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 以 Form 20-F 提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction. Peter?

接下來，我想把電話交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短開場。Peter？

Thank you, Craig. Good morning. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of our Q3 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

謝謝你，Craig。早安。下午好，各位女士、各位先生，感謝各位參加我們第三季（Q3）業績電話會議。在開始問答環節之前，Wolfgang 和我想先就最近一季提供概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Wolfgang 將先回顧我們第三季的財務表現，並補充對短期展望的評論；我將在開場最後補充一些關於目前商業環境以及未來業務展望的看法。

Wolfgang, if you will?

Wolfgang，請？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I would like to first highlight some of the third quarter financial accomplishments, and then provide our view for the coming quarter. Q3 net sales exceeded our guidance coming in at EUR 2.45 billion, largely due to the revenue recognition of an additional EUV system. Net system sales of EUR 1.82 billion was nicely balanced between foundry, memory and IDM, and was more than EUR 400 million higher than in Q2.

謝謝你，Peter，也歡迎各位。我想先強調第三季在財務方面的一些成果，接著提供我們對下一季的看法。第三季淨銷售額超出我們的指引，達到 24.5 億歐元，主要是因為額外一套 EUV 系統的營收認列。系統淨銷售額為 18.2 億歐元，在晶圓代工、記憶體與 IDM 之間分布相當均衡，且較第二季高出逾 4 億歐元。

Installed base management revenue for the quarter came in at EUR 628 million, slightly above our expectation. Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 42.9%. Gross margin was diluted by the additional EUV revenue recognized, but compensated by higher-than-expected DUV and Holistic Lithography sales. Overall OpEx came in slightly below guidance, with R&D expenses at EUR 315 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 103 million.

本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）營收為 6.28 億歐元，略高於我們的預期。本季毛利率為 42.9%。毛利率受到額外認列的 EUV 營收稀釋，但由高於預期的 DUV 與整體微影（Holistic Lithography）銷售所抵銷。整體營運費用（OpEx）略低於指引，其中研發費用為 3.15 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）為 1.03 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments came in at EUR 2.68 billion. As highlighted during our July call, we resumed share buybacks in Q3. During the quarter, we purchased EUR 169 million worth of shares. Since January 2016, we have purchased shares of approximately 6 million shares with a value of EUR 569 million against our 2016 and 2017 authorization of EUR 1.5 billion.

接著看資產負債表。與上一季相比，現金、約當現金及短期投資為 26.8 億歐元。如同我們在 7 月電話會議中所強調的，我們在第三季恢復庫藏股回購。本季我們回購了價值 1.69 億歐元的股份。自 2016 年 1 月以來，我們已回購約 600 萬股，價值 5.69 億歐元；相較於 2016 與 2017 年授權的 15 億歐元回購額度。

Moving to the order book. The 3 system bookings came in at EUR 2.15 billion. The growth in the immerse and KrF order intake is an indication of the strength of our EUV business. Last quarter's strong bookings were driven by the memory sector, which represented 77% of orders compared to 40% in Q2. Our EUV backlog now reflects 23 systems valued at EUR 2.6 billion. As for EUV orders, we are working closely with our customers to understand the EUV demand through 2020 and use this as the basis for our shipment planning. Actual order intake is always lumpy, and we do expect to take additional orders in Q4. Our overall system backlog now totals a record EUR 5.69 billion.

接著看訂單。第三季系統接單金額為 21.5 億歐元。浸沒式（immersion）與 KrF 的接單成長，顯示我們 EUV 業務的強勁動能。上季強勁的接單主要由記憶體產業帶動，記憶體占訂單比重為 77%，相較第二季為 40%。我們的 EUV 在手訂單（backlog）目前反映為 23 套系統，價值 26 億歐元。至於 EUV 訂單，我們正與客戶密切合作，以了解至 2020 年的 EUV 需求，並以此作為出貨規劃的基礎。實際接單一向具有波動性（lumpy），我們也預期在第四季會取得額外訂單。我們整體系統在手訂單目前合計達到創紀錄的 56.9 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the fourth quarter of 2017. We expect continuing sales trends in Q4, with total net sales of around EUR 2.1 billion. While we target to ship 6 NXE:3400s in the December quarter, we expect revenue recognition of about EUR 300 million for our EUV business. We expect our Q4 installed base management revenue to come in around EUR 600 million. This revenue guidance for Q4 brings our total revenue expectation for 2017 to approximately EUR 8.6 billion, which reflects a greater than 25% year-on-year increase.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2017 年第四季的預期與指引。我們預期第四季銷售趨勢將延續，淨銷售總額約為 21 億歐元。雖然我們目標是在 12 月季度出貨 6 台 NXE:3400，但我們預期 EUV 業務的營收認列約為 3 億歐元。我們預期第四季裝機基礎管理營收約為 6 億歐元。此第四季營收指引使我們對 2017 年全年總營收的預期約為 86 億歐元，反映年增超過 25%。

Installed base revenue will account for almost EUR 2.7 billion for the year, also reflecting a 25% increase. Total EUV revenue for 2017 will be around EUR 1 billion, which represents more than 2.5x the 2016 level.

全年裝機基礎營收將接近 27 億歐元，同樣反映 25% 的成長。2017 年 EUV 全年營收約為 10 億歐元，代表較 2016 年水準成長超過 2.5 倍。

Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be around 44%, R&D expenses for Q4 will be about EUR 315 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR 110 million. With this guidance for Q4, our total operating income for the year is expected to exceed EUR 2.25 billion, reflecting a greater than 35% year-on-year increase.

第四季毛利率預期約為 44%，第四季研發費用約為 3.15 億歐元，SG&A 預期約為 1.10 億歐元。依此第四季指引，我們預期全年營業利益將超過 22.5 億歐元，反映年增超過 35%。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交回給你，Peter。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, our business continues to perform very well, and demand for our products is very strong. Based on our guidance for the upcoming quarter, we expect to deliver another record year with net sales growth of at least 25% over 2016. The positive industry environment across multiple end market segments continues to fuel strong demand for our products as we move into 2018.

謝謝你，Wolfgang。如 Wolfgang 所強調的，我們的業務持續表現非常出色，對我們產品的需求也非常強勁。根據我們對下一季的指引，我們預期將再創紀錄的一年，淨銷售額較 2016 年至少成長 25%。隨著我們邁入 2018 年，涵蓋多個終端市場區隔的正向產業環境，持續推動對我們產品的強勁需求。

While Wolfgang reviewed our current performance and outlook for the coming quarter, I would like to provide some commentary on the longer-term outlook of our market drivers, followed by an update on the progress and plans for our product groups. This year's memory strength will translate into a record memory revenue year for us. This, in combination with our strong memory backlog, seems to serve as a solid foundation for further growth into 2018. As our customers further migrate next year to the sub-20-nanometer DRAM nodes, we benefit from a significantly increasing litho intensity for those nodes, driving litho intensity up over 30%.

在 Wolfgang 回顧我們目前的表現與下一季展望之後，我想就驅動我們市場的長期動能提供一些評論，接著更新我們各產品群的進展與規劃。今年記憶體市場的強勁表現，將使我們的記憶體營收創下歷史新高。再加上我們強勁的記憶體在手訂單，似乎為 2018 年的進一步成長奠定了穩固基礎。隨著客戶明年進一步遷移至 20 奈米以下的 DRAM 製程節點，我們將受惠於這些節點顯著提升的微影強度，使微影強度提高超過 30%。

Additionally, we do not see significant near-term completion of new DRAM fabs. This is amidst a healthy mid-20s DRAM bit demand growth scenario, largely driven by demand for performance memory in the service space. All in all, a strong base for our 2018 DRAM business.

此外，我們並未看到短期內有大量新的 DRAM 晶圓廠完工。這是在 DRAM 位元需求成長維持在健康的 20% 中段情境下發生的，主要由服務領域對高效能記憶體的需求所驅動。總而言之，這為我們 2018 年的 DRAM 業務奠定了堅實基礎。

In 3D NAND, litho demand is also strong with a number of greenfield fabs ramping. Current greenfield fabs take approximately 10% more litho spend than the previous 2D NAND fabs. As this technology scales vertically, there are challenges in building these very tall stacks. In response on NAND memory, manufacturers are implementing so-called stacks of stacks, where every new stack needs additional litho, driving litho intensity up by another 20%. But adding the NAND opportunity to the DRAM business outlook for next year, we can see another strong memory year ahead of us.

在 3D NAND 方面，隨著多座綠地晶圓廠加速爬坡，微影需求同樣強勁。目前的綠地晶圓廠在微影支出上約比先前的 2D NAND 晶圓廠高出 10%。隨著此技術朝垂直方向擴展，在建構這些非常高的堆疊時會面臨挑戰。因此在 NAND 記憶體上，製造商正在導入所謂的「堆疊中的堆疊」（stack of stacks），每增加一個新堆疊都需要額外的微影步驟，使微影強度再提高約 20%。將 NAND 的機會加上明年 DRAM 業務展望，我們可以看到未來仍將是另一個強勁的記憶體年度。

Logic demand remains solid, driven by the continued ramp of 10-nanometer as well as the start of the 7-nanometer node. Litho intensity continues to increase as we migrate to future nodes, and further strengthens with the adoption of EUV at 7-nanometer. As expensive multiple patterning schemes keep driving up the cost of every new node, EUV provides process simplification, cycle time reductions and yield improvement, ultimately resulting in customer cost benefits, which clearly explains the stated desire to introduce EUV for the next nodes.

邏輯晶片需求仍然穩健，受惠於 10 奈米持續放量，以及 7 奈米節點的啟動。隨著我們遷移至未來節點，微影強度持續上升，並在 7 奈米採用 EUV 後進一步增強。由於昂貴的多重圖案化方案持續推升每一個新節點的成本，EUV 可帶來製程簡化、縮短週期時間並提升良率，最終為客戶帶來成本效益，這也清楚解釋了客戶所表達、希望在下一代節點導入 EUV 的意願。

With regards to China, we continue to see revenue increase throughout the year, and are on pace to set a new net revenue from this region in 2017. This trend of increasing sales to the Chinese region will continue in 2018, as we see strong demand from notable customers building out fabs in China, including additional system orders from new domestic Chinese customers. We expect to see a number of new customers starting pilot ramps next year, and are further expanding our customer support footprint in order to meet the future significant demand growth in this region.

就中國而言，我們持續看到全年營收增加，並有望在 2017 年創下來自該地區的新淨營收紀錄。隨著多家重要客戶在中國擴建晶圓廠（包括來自新的中國本土客戶的額外系統訂單），對中國地區的銷售成長趨勢將在 2018 年延續。我們預期明年將有多家新客戶開始試產爬坡，並正進一步擴大我們的客戶支援據點，以滿足該地區未來顯著的需求成長。

As we mentioned last quarter, we estimate the initial lithography opportunity on these new domestic Chinese customers to be around EUR 3 billion over the next 3 years.

如同我們在上一季提到的，我們估計這些新的中國本土客戶在未來 3 年的初始微影商機約為 30 億歐元。

On the ASML product side, let me start with an update of our EUV business. In EUV, availability continues to make progress in both average performance as well as reducing variation. In addition to delivering 0 defect pellicles, we also demonstrated the capability of these pellicles to withstand 250 watts of power in support of 125 wafers per hour and beyond targets.

在 ASML 產品方面，讓我先從 EUV 業務的最新進展談起。在 EUV 上，可用率持續進步，包含平均效能提升以及變異降低。除了交付零缺陷的薄膜（pellicle）之外，我們也展示了這些薄膜可承受 250 瓦功率的能力，以支援每小時 125 片晶圓及更高的目標。

We continue to work closely with our customers to align on their EUV demand plans and the required timing of tool shipments. Supporting our customers' delivery timing requirements depends predominantly on the ramp-up speed of our supply chain, specifically optics. Long lead time for EUV systems, combined with the inherent fluctuations of our customers' ramp plans poses significant planning challenges. To address these challenges, we continue to work intensely with our supply chain to bring the lead times for EUV down from 24 to 18 months.

我們持續與客戶密切合作，就其 EUV 需求計畫以及設備出貨所需時程達成一致。要滿足客戶的交付時程要求，主要取決於我們供應鏈的爬坡速度，尤其是光學元件。EUV 系統的長交期，加上客戶爬坡計畫本身的波動性，帶來重大的規劃挑戰。為因應這些挑戰，我們持續與供應鏈密切合作，努力將 EUV 的交期從 24 個月縮短至 18 個月。

Taking all of the aforementioned into account, we currently have a production plan of 20 EUV systems next year, at least 30 in 2019 and 40-plus in 2020. Also, in support of EUV production implementation, we shipped the first e-beam EUV reticle inspection tool, the eXplore 6000, to a logic foundry customer. This system enables improved defect detection, as optical inspection has resolution challenges on EUV reticles.

綜合上述各項因素，我們目前規劃明年生產 20 台 EUV 系統，2019 年至少 30 台，2020 年 40 台以上。此外，為支援 EUV 量產導入，我們已將第一台電子束 EUV 光罩檢測設備 eXplore 6000 出貨給一家邏輯晶圓代工客戶。由於光學檢測在 EUV 光罩上存在解析度挑戰，該系統可提升缺陷偵測能力。

In deep UV, we see continued revenue growth across the product lines, driven by immersion and KrF technology. We provided early access to our latest TWINSCAN NXT:2000 immersion system for initial development of the 5-nanometer node. This new system features several hardware innovations that deliver improved imaging and overlay performance in support of aggressive meshed machine overlay to EUV, which is required for future nodes. The very high demand for our immersion systems equals the fastest ramp of our NXT platform industry as we shipped the 100th NXT:1980 system in Q3. Strong demand for our KrF product is across multiple market segments, but primarily driven by 3D NAND.

在深紫外（DUV）方面，我們看到各產品線營收持續成長，主要由浸沒式與 KrF 技術所帶動。我們提供客戶搶先使用最新的 TWINSCAN NXT:2000 浸沒式系統，以進行 5 奈米節點的初期開發。這套新系統具備多項硬體創新，可提升成像與疊對（overlay）效能，以支援未來節點所需、與 EUV 之間更嚴苛的網格化機台疊對。我們浸沒式系統的需求非常高，等同於 NXT 平台在業界最快的爬坡速度，我們已在第三季出貨第 100 台 NXT:1980 系統。我們的 KrF 產品在多個市場區隔皆有強勁需求，但主要由 3D NAND 所驅動。

In Holistic Lithography, we shipped our first jointly developed product less than 1 year after closing of the HMI acquisition. This product, the ePfm5, is a Pattern Fidelity Metrology system that leverages HMI's high-resolution e-beam metrology with ASML's computational lithography technology. This product's high-resolution capability enables a high capture rate of systematic patterning defects, so customers can accelerate the yield learning curves and drive higher production yields. This integrated system enables the first-ever guided metrology, delivering faster, effective throughput to support volume production.

在整體微影（Holistic Lithography）方面，我們在完成 HMI 併購後不到 1 年，就出貨了第一款共同開發的產品。該產品 ePfm5 是一套圖形保真度量測（Pattern Fidelity Metrology）系統，結合 HMI 的高解析度電子束量測與 ASML 的計算微影技術。此產品的高解析度能力可高比例捕捉系統性圖形缺陷，使客戶能加速良率學習曲線並提升量產良率。這套整合系統實現了史上首次的導引式量測（guided metrology），提供更快且有效的吞吐量，以支援量產。

In summary, we have demand growth continuing across our entire product portfolio. And we expect another record year, at least 25% revenue growth, largely driven by continued strength of memory demand, alongside solid logic demand. Although it's too early to fully quantify 2018, our current view is that the positive business trends that we're seeing in 2017 will continue in 2018.

總結來說，我們整個產品組合的需求成長仍在延續。我們預期將再創紀錄的一年，營收至少成長 25%，主要由記憶體需求持續強勁所帶動，同時邏輯需求也保持穩健。雖然現在要完整量化 2018 年仍為時過早，但我們目前的看法是，2017 年所見的正向業務趨勢將在 2018 年延續。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thanks, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now Peter, could you have your final instructions, and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，Peter。各位女士先生，接線員稍後將說明問答環節的流程。(接線員指示) 現在 Peter，請你給出最後的說明，然後開始第一個問題，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from Mr. Dave Mulholland.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自 Dave Mulholland 先生。

Just firstly, I think one of the interesting comments you made on the 3D NAND shifting to customer stack, and I'm wondering if you could just help us to understand how broadly you see that happening throughout the customer base in 3D NAND. Is it selectively or are all of your customers moving towards that trend? And then secondly, on EUV, just one quick update as a follow up if you could. I think on the last call, you mentioned there was potentially going to be EUR 500 million of revenue to be caught up or unrecognized at the end of this year. Is that still the case? And could you help us understand when we should expect that to be recognized into 2018?

首先，我認為你對 3D NAND 轉向客戶採用「堆疊中的堆疊」的評論很有意思，我想請你協助我們理解，在 3D NAND 的客戶群中，你認為這種情況會有多普遍。這是選擇性發生，還是你們所有客戶都在朝這個趨勢前進？其次，關於 EUV，我想快速追問一個更新。我記得在上一次電話會議中，你提到今年年底可能會有約 5 億歐元的營收需要補認列或尚未認列。目前仍是如此嗎？你能否協助我們理解，這部分預期何時會在 2018 年認列？

Yes. I will answer the first one. I'll give the second question to you, Wolfgang.

是的。第一個問題我來回答。第二個問題我交給你，Wolfgang。

Yes.

好的。

Yes. The 3D NAND, how broadly do we see that? We see that with a few customers, not with all of them. But what we understand is that customers have similar issues. Now you can always argue, at what level of specs do they encounter those issues? And that might be different from customer to customer. But I think it's our belief, based on the feedback that we get from customers, that ultimately, they will all have to get to some kind of stack-of-stack approach. But it has started. And it has started not with all of them, but with a few customers.

好的。關於 3D NAND，我們認為這會有多普遍？我們在少數幾家客戶身上看到這種情況，但不是所有客戶。不過我們的理解是，客戶面臨的問題是相似的。當然你也可以討論，他們在什麼規格層級會遇到這些問題。而這可能因客戶而異。但我認為，根據我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋，我們相信最終他們都必須採用某種「堆疊中的堆疊」方法。但這個趨勢已經開始了。而且不是所有客戶都開始了，而是少數幾家客戶先開始。

Yes. And Dave, on the deferred revenue on EUV, you're correct, same thing, like what we said last quarter. We will carry a significant deferred revenue balance into next year, which means that our total revenue for next year will be higher than what the 20 shipments that we have planned and, of course, the 4 upgrades that we also still plan to do. So the total revenue will include some of that deferred revenue. And there will be a little bit of revenue deferred of the 20 systems, but the majority will be recognized. Therefore, we continue to say that for next year, you should use a planning assumption of around EUR 2.5 billion for total EUV revenue.

是的。而且 Dave，關於 EUV 的遞延收入，你說得沒錯，情況一樣，就像我們上季所說的。我們會把相當可觀的遞延收入餘額帶入明年，這表示我們明年的總營收將高於我們規劃的 20 台出貨量，當然也包括我們仍計畫進行的 4 台升級。因此，總營收會包含部分遞延收入。而在這 20 套系統中也會有一小部分營收遞延，但大多數將會認列。因此，我們仍然表示，對於明年，你應以約 25 億歐元作為 EUV 總營收的規劃假設。

And if I may just quickly follow up on the profitability of the deferral, is that still quite dilutive on where you're recognizing for the 3 tools in Q4? And then is it very profitable next year? Or is there less difference in the deferral this time around?

如果我可以快速追問一下遞延對獲利能力的影響，這是否仍然對你們在第四季認列的 3 台工具的獲利有相當稀釋？那麼明年是否會非常有利可圖？或者這次遞延的差異比較小？

It's very different by different line items. But for your planning purposes, just assume the same profitability.

不同的損益項目差異很大。但就你的規劃目的而言，就假設獲利能力與之前相同。

The next question comes from Mr. Farhan Ahmad.

下一個問題來自 Farhan Ahmad 先生。

Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse. My question is on the memory. You're seeing very strong orders in Q3, and I just want to understand what's the sustainability in that business. And is there any concern that there might be too much additions? And if you can give some color on how much of it is revenue capacity versus just conversion, that will be helpful.

我是 Credit Suisse 的 Farhan Ahmad。我的問題是關於記憶體。你們在第三季看到非常強勁的訂單，我想了解這項業務的可持續性如何。以及是否擔心可能新增產能過多？另外，如果你能補充一些背景，例如其中有多少是營收產能（revenue capacity）帶動、又有多少只是轉換（conversion），會很有幫助。

The answer on the new capacity is a difficult one. Like I said, let me first answer your first question on the sustainability. On DRAM, like as I said in my prepared remarks, there are no significant new fab plants that will take tools in 2018. So next year. So in other words, in terms of new fab capacity, it will be pretty limited what you will see in terms of wafers out in 2018, which actually means that the bit demand, which is currently around the mid-20s, needs to come from shrink, from innovation, which actually happens. I mean, there's a lot of innovation happening in DRAM. So we got sub 20-nanometer, and then we'll provide those bits. At least that is what the expectation is. And I would support that, I mean, that the innovation drive should be sufficient to deal with the demand, but there would be no relief.

關於新增產能的答案比較難。如我所說，先回答你第一個關於可持續性的問題。在 DRAM 方面，正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，2018 年不會有重大的新晶圓廠會接收設備。也就是明年。換句話說，就新廠產能而言，2018 年你會看到的晶圓產出增量相當有限，這其實意味著目前約在 20% 中段的位元需求（bit demand）必須來自製程微縮、來自創新，而這確實正在發生。我的意思是，DRAM 正在發生大量創新。所以我們有 20 奈米以下，然後會提供那些位元。至少這是目前的預期。我也支持這個看法，也就是創新驅動應足以應對需求，但不會有任何緩解空間。

On 3D NAND, a lot of greenfield fabs, and that means that there's a lot of shipments to those greenfield fabs. Now when we look at the forecasted bit growth on NAND, it is the reason really where the big question is whether that bit growth is going to be able to absorb all that new capacity in 2018.

在 3D NAND 方面，有很多綠地（greenfield）新廠，這表示會有大量出貨到這些綠地新廠。現在當我們看 NAND 預測的位元成長時，真正的大問題在於：這樣的位元成長是否能在 2018 年吸收所有新增產能。

We don't know yet. I mean, we've -- currently, we've been surprised also this year about a bit stronger bit demand growth that we originally anticipated. That's where probably a bit of a question is probably too early to answer. But all our memory customers, they indicate that, also, on 3D NAND, they see significant bit growth next year from the demand side.

我們還不知道。我的意思是——今年我們也感到意外，位元需求成長比我們原先預期的還要強一些。所以這個問題可能還太早，現在很難回答。但我們所有的記憶體客戶也表示，即使在 3D NAND 上，他們從需求端看，明年也會有顯著的位元成長。

So if anything, if you would want to place a question on sustainability, now start asking our customers on what they believe how much capacity is now added or will be added in 2018 and what they think about the demand situation. And the demand situation, of course, we're further away from that, so it's more difficult for us to give you an answer in that direction. Now what is new capacity? Well, I actually answered. I said new capacities -- a lot of new capacity is being added in the 3D NAND space, not a lot of new capacity in the DRAM space. But all in all, if we look, like I said in my prepared remarks, what the drivers are, very much the end drivers as customers tell us are the server markets or the markets for the take-up of the new 3D NAND products all looks very healthy. And customers are very upbeat, as also evidenced by the intake in our order book in Q3.

所以如果你要對可持續性提出疑問，現在不如開始去問我們的客戶：他們認為 2018 年新增了多少產能或將新增多少產能，以及他們如何看待需求情況。而需求情況當然離我們更遠，因此我們更難在那個方向給你答案。那麼什麼是新增產能？嗯，其實我已經回答了。我說新增產能——在 3D NAND 領域新增很多產能，在 DRAM 領域新增產能不多。但總體而言，如我在事先準備的發言中所說，驅動因素很大程度上是終端驅動：客戶告訴我們，伺服器市場或新 3D NAND 產品的採用市場看起來都非常健康。而客戶也非常樂觀，這也反映在我們第三季訂單簿的接單量上。

And then a quick question on EUV. Can you just remind us what are the main bottlenecks that you have in terms of the supply chain, which you are working on?

接著一個關於 EUV 的快速問題。你能提醒我們一下，你們在供應鏈方面正在處理的主要瓶頸是什麼嗎？

Yes. The main bottlenecks, as I mentioned also in my prepared remarks, are the lenses, the optics. The optics are the gating item right now. So we're working very hard with ZEISS to make sure that we can get a bit more output. But as we currently see it, I mean, we've mentioned in all of the numbers, which are up 20 for next year, at least 30 for 2019 and 40-plus for 2020, that is what our current planning is. But we also have started to run programs with our supply chain to shorter -- to shorten the lead time and to shorter the cycle time in their factory. So the total lead time for EUV can come down from 24 to our target by 2019 of around 18 months. So we're working hard, but it's currently optics.

是的。主要瓶頸，如我在事先準備的發言中也提到的，是鏡片、光學元件。光學元件目前是關鍵限制項（gating item）。所以我們正與 ZEISS 非常努力合作，確保能提高一些產出。但就我們目前所見，我是說，我們在所有數字中都提到：明年提高到 20 台、2019 年至少 30 台、2020 年 40 台以上，這是我們目前的規劃。但我們也已經開始與供應鏈推動專案，以縮短——縮短他們工廠的前置時間並縮短週期時間。因此 EUV 的總前置時間可以從 24 個月降到我們 2019 年約 18 個月的目標。所以我們正在努力，但目前瓶頸在光學元件。

The next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI. I guess, first question, on the EUV front, and specifically the memory, can you provide an update on where we are in terms of DRAM adoption at 1Y? And as part of that, are you including a meaningful number of tool shipments in your 30 shipment outlook for calendar '19?

我是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。我想第一個問題是在 EUV 方面，特別是記憶體，你能更新一下我們在 DRAM 於 1Y 節點導入（adoption）的進展到哪裡了嗎？另外，作為其中一部分，你們在 2019 年曆年 30 台出貨展望中，是否包含相當數量的工具出貨？

Memory-specific?

是針對記憶體嗎？

Yes, just DRAM specific, yes.

是的，只針對 DRAM，對。

Yes. I think we don't single out the DRAM memory customer or customers. And 2019 would be -- that would be not wise to do that because it would pinpoint to specific customers, and we won't do that. But for EUV memory DRAM, the adoption is currently target -- initial adoption is currently targeted at the end of next year. So that means drivers for that are, of course, the productivity of the tool. But those targets are in our outlets. So that would mean initial adoption for initial production at the end of 2018 going into 2019, in that time frame.

是的。我想我們不會單獨點出某一家或某幾家 DRAM 記憶體客戶。而且在 2019 年——那樣做並不明智，因為會指向特定客戶，我們不會這麼做。但就 EUV 用於記憶體 DRAM 而言，目前的導入目標——初期導入目前鎖定在明年年底。因此其驅動因素當然是工具的生產力。但這些目標已反映在我們的展望中。所以這意味著，初期導入、初期量產會在 2018 年底到 2019 年之間的那個時間範圍內。

Very helpful. And I guess, as my follow-up, Wolfgang, can you talk about gross margin trajectory for EUV as well as the entirety of the company? I think you talked about 20%, if my memory serves me right, for calendar '18. And curious, does that include the benefit of deferred revenues in the mix?

非常有幫助。那我接著追問，Wolfgang，你能談談 EUV 以及公司整體的毛利率走勢嗎？我記得你提到 2018 年曆年大約 20%，如果我沒記錯的話。我想了解的是：這是否包含組合中遞延收入帶來的效益？

And then as a second part to that, when do you think at high volume, call it, 6, 7, 8 EUV tools per quarter, can you get to kind of a 45-plus percent gross margin overall?

另外第二部分，你認為在高出貨量的情況下，比如每季 6、7、8 台 EUV 工具時，你們何時能達到整體約 45% 以上的毛利率？

Okay. C.J., Our plan stands as we have communicated it before. It -- the target is to get to close to breakeven or breakeven this year, and that includes everything. All the numbers I give you include everything. It includes service. It includes all the (inaudible) systems, inclusive the deferred revenue rollover. And then for 2018, we're targeting 20%, and our objective for 2020 is 40%. So we haven't quite spelled out 45% yet.

好的。C.J.，我們的計畫如同先前所溝通的，維持不變。也就是——目標是在今年達到接近損益兩平或損益兩平，而且這包含所有項目。我給你的所有數字都包含所有項目。包含服務。包含所有（聽不清楚）的系統，也包含遞延營收的結轉。然後在2018年，我們的目標是20%，而我們2020年的目標是40%。所以我們還沒有把45%明確說出來。

We have also said that 40% is not the end of the road. If you look at our other businesses, they return more than 40% gross margin. But that would always include the deferred pieces as well. So breakeven this year, 20% in '18, 40% in 2020, and 2019, somewhere in between 20% and 40%.

我們也說過，40%不是終點。如果你看我們其他業務，它們的毛利率回報高於40%。但那也一樣會包含遞延的部分。所以今年損益兩平，2018年20%，2020年40%，而2019年則介於20%與40%之間。

The next question comes from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自Mehdi Hosseini先生。

The first one has to do with your EUV manufacturing. What would be your shipment forecast if your manufacturing cycle time has actually been reduced to 18 months? Specifically, where would the 30- and 40-plus unit in '19 and 2020 would go to?

第一個問題與你們的EUV製造有關。如果你們的製造週期時間確實縮短到18個月，你們的出貨預測會是什麼？具體來說，2019年以及2020年30台與40台以上的機台會交付到哪裡？

That's a good question. That's an interesting question. And in fact, I think what we can say is that the customer demand that we're seeing for 2019 is in excess of that 30. Now we can just add it all up, and then think about 2 years ahead and what customers indicate to us. That is, I would say, decently above that 30 number. And decently means that it's at least 30% from that number. But how much it, in fact, would be in 2019 is a bit difficult because it is still 2 years out. So but what we're currently seeing is that would be about 30% higher than the number that we -- that I quoted you.

這是個好問題。這是個很有意思的問題。事實上，我想我們可以說的是，我們看到客戶對2019年的需求超過30台。現在我們可以把它全部加總起來，然後再思考兩年後、以及客戶向我們所表達的需求。也就是說，我會說，明顯高於30台這個數字。而「明顯」的意思是，至少比那個數字高出30%。但2019年實際會是多少，仍有點難說，因為畢竟還有兩年。不過我們目前看到的情況是，大約會比我報給你的數字高出約30%。

Got it. And then it's been a few quarters since you have broken out the metrology inspection. Maybe this is more for Wolfgang. Can you help us? How should we think about revenue contribution in '17? And where would it go into '18? Is there any parameter? Is there any metrics that you can offer so we could better model this?

了解。另外，你們已經有幾個季度沒有把量測與檢測（metrology inspection）拆分揭露了。也許這題更適合問Wolfgang。你能幫我們一下嗎？我們應該如何看待2017年的營收貢獻？而到了2018年會走向哪裡？有沒有任何參數？有沒有任何指標可以提供，讓我們能更好地建模？

Yes. I mean, the one thing that we have been clear on is a good chunk of that is, of course, the newly acquired HMI business. And there, we said that revenue this year will significantly increase, almost double, albeit from a relatively low level of last year. So it will be somewhere in the $220 million, $230 million, somewhere in that range. And then that business will continue to strongly grow next year based also on the eXplore product and the ePfm5 product that Peter had in his introductory remarks. It's a little bit early to put a number in, but it's a significant step-up, all in support of a business that is going to be around EUR 1 billion in 2020.

有。我的意思是，我們一直很清楚的一點是，其中相當一部分當然來自新併購的HMI業務。我們也說過，今年該業務營收將顯著增加，幾乎翻倍，儘管是從去年相對較低的基期成長。所以大概會在2.2億到2.3億美元之間，落在那個區間。然後，基於Peter在開場致詞中提到的eXplore產品與ePfm5產品，該業務明年也將持續強勁成長。現在要給出具體數字還稍早，但會是顯著的躍升，整體都是為了支撐一個在2020年規模約10億歐元的業務。

I think what I was trying to get at is if there are 2 buckets, EUV and DUV, which one of these 2 buckets or factors are going to be critical in sustaining the growth and hitting that EUR 1 billion revenue target in 2020?

我想我想問的是，如果有兩個桶：EUV和DUV，這兩個桶或因素中，哪一個會是維持成長並在2020年達成10億歐元營收目標的關鍵？

It's not that easily to tie it to one or the other. It has to do with the total production process and the total development process of our customers. So we don't look at it this way. We just look at it as a total section in the metrology group.

這不太容易把它歸因到其中之一。這與客戶的整體量產流程與整體開發流程有關。所以我們不會用這種方式來看。我們只是把它視為量測事業群中的一個整體區塊。

The next question comes from Mr. Jagadish Iyer.

下一個問題來自Jagadish Iyer先生。

Yes, Summit Redstone Partners. Two questions, Peter. First, on the -- in terms of the Pattern Fidelity Metrology that you provided, how big can the market be? And can you clarify in terms of the adoption between foundry, logic, as well as memory customers? And then I have a brief follow-up.

是的，我是Summit Redstone Partners。Peter，我有兩個問題。第一個，關於你提到的圖形保真度量測（Pattern Fidelity Metrology），這個市場規模可以有多大？另外，你能否釐清一下在晶圓代工、邏輯，以及記憶體客戶之間的採用情況？然後我還有一個簡短的追問。

Yes. On the last question, it is predominantly being used initially, I would say initially, by logic, yes, because that's where the biggest challenges are because of the more random patterns that you see there. So that will be the first area where you would see the introduction. But as we've seen with all the solutions that ultimately provide customers with more certainty, what happens on the wafer and gives them the ability to make changes, so that it can really manage yield, that also crosses over to the memory products also. We've seen the same with YieldStar, NetStar (inaudible) logic, and it also moves now over into the memory space.

好的。針對最後那個問題，它在初期——我會說在初期——主要是由邏輯客戶使用，因為那裡的挑戰最大，因為你會看到更隨機的圖形。所以你會先在那個領域看到導入。但如同我們在所有最終能為客戶帶來更高確定性的解決方案上所看到的情況：它能讓客戶了解晶圓上發生了什麼，並讓他們有能力做出調整，從而真正管理良率；這也會延伸到記憶體產品。我們在YieldStar、NetStar（聽不清楚）上也看到同樣情況：先在邏輯端，現在也轉移到記憶體領域。

And how big is that market? Well, that's a good question because where actually it is a product for which a market does not exist yet, because it's a product that actually -- or the Pattern Fidelity Metrology where you have, where you use the predictive capability to actually manage yield through the scanner is a completely new area. So we have our ideas of what it can mean, but -- and we think it can create -- there's a lot of value. If you look at the first PFM, the Pattern Fidelity tool -- metrology tool that we're shipping this year, which we're shipping a few, but the first one we did in Q3, I mean, that has a high level of interest with our logic customers.

那這個市場有多大？這是個好問題，因為它其實是一個市場尚未存在的產品，因為這個產品——或者說圖形保真度量測（PFM），你利用預測能力，透過掃描機來管理良率——是一個全新的領域。所以我們對它可能代表的意義有一些想法，但——我們認為它可以創造——有很大的價值。如果你看我們今年出貨的第一台PFM、也就是圖形保真度量測工具——我們會出貨幾台，但第一台是在第三季——我的意思是，它在我們的邏輯客戶中引起高度興趣。

So how big is that market? It depends on the value that we're going to provide. We have high hopes and expectations, but that needs to be basically worked out together with the customer because that really -- you really show the value on the wafer. So that is -- that jury is still out, but we have high hopes, and actually because it provides an efficacy forward loop that nobody else does.

所以這個市場有多大？這取決於我們將提供的價值。我們有很高的期待與期望，但基本上需要與客戶一起把它驗證出來，因為那真正——你必須在晶圓上展示其價值。所以——目前還沒有定論，但我們抱持很高期待，而且因為它提供了一個其他人都沒有的前饋閉環（feed-forward loop）效能。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, you had an e-beam inspection product rollout for this EUV mask. Where do you see the insertion point for this product? What time frame? And where do you see that ramping through 2020 and beyond?

好的。再追問一下，你們針對EUV光罩推出了一個電子束（e-beam）檢測產品。你們認為這個產品的導入切入點在哪裡？時間框架是什麼？你們如何看待它在2020年及之後的放量成長？

Well, I think it's -- we see that ramping at the same time as we ramp EUV. I mean, you need EUV masks. You need the inspection of EUV masks. So that's why we are -- start shipping the first tools now. So those will not go into volume production because volume production really initially starts at the end of next year, in the course of next year and going into 2019. So it is the time frame where you also need to see the ramp of this product.

我想——我們看到它會在我們推升EUV的同時一起放量。我的意思是，你需要EUV光罩。你也需要EUV光罩的檢測。所以這就是為什麼我們現在開始出貨第一批工具。不過這些不會立刻進入量產，因為量產最初真正開始是在明年年底，在明年期間並延伸到2019年。所以這也是你需要看到這個產品放量的時間框架。

Next question comes from Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. I just had a couple of modeling questions for you, Wolfgang. Just as we sit here towards the end of 2017, I was just wondering if you could start to give us a bit more of a steer on some of the OpEx items in 2018, particularly around R&D. You guys have been pretty consistent this year at about EUR 315 million a quarter. Just interested how to -- sort of how that might step up, particularly when we consider the contribution to ZEISS next year, and also likewise on capital spending, particularly as you're continuing to fit out for the EUV ramp.

我是 Barclays 的 Andrew Gardiner。Wolfgang，我有幾個關於模型假設的問題想請教。在我們現在接近 2017 年底之際，我想請你們對 2018 年的一些營運費用（OpEx）項目給我們更多指引，特別是研發（R&D）方面。你們今年每季大致都維持在約 3.15 億歐元。我想了解這個數字可能會如何上調，尤其是考量到明年對 ZEISS 的貢獻；同樣地也想請教資本支出（capital spending），特別是你們持續為 EUV 擴產爬坡（ramp）進行產線/場地配置。

And then finally, just do you have any thoughts on tax? I know that some of the tax proposal by the coalition government in Ireland are not yet finalized, but have you guys looked at how that might impact your ongoing tax rate?

最後，你們對稅務有什麼看法嗎？我知道愛爾蘭聯合政府提出的一些稅務提案尚未定案，但你們是否已評估這可能如何影響你們持續性的有效稅率？

Andrew, OpEx first. Let's start with SG&A. SG&A should grow only very modestly. I mean, we have very few variable pieces in there, but we invest a bit in sales. We invest a bit in HR, a little bit in IT systems. But I think that we'll be growing at a much lower rate than the revenue, and we'll stay around that 1 10 rate, probably a little bit up. If you look -- and our objective there for 2020 is 4% of revenue.

Andrew，先談 OpEx。我們先從 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）開始。SG&A 應該只會非常溫和地成長。我的意思是，裡面可變動的部分不多，但我們會在銷售上多投資一些。在人資（HR）上投資一些，在 IT 系統上也會投資一點。但我認為我們的成長率會遠低於營收成長率，並且會維持在約 10% 左右，可能略高一點。如果你看——我們 2020 年的目標是占營收的 4%。

For R&D, we're going to add up to 1 25 or 1 26 for this year, which is based on our revenue guidance now with the fourth quarter somewhere just shy of 15%. And if you contrast that to 2014, 2015, 2016, it was 18%, 17%, 16%, the spend, respectively. Now we're around 15%. We will spend more in absolute terms next year, exactly for the reasons that you mentioned. High NA, both on our premises, but then also on Zeiss SMT's premises. And then we do continue to invest strongly also in the Holistic Lithography field. We're actually accelerating investments there.

至於研發，我們今年會增加到約 12.5% 或 12.6%，這是基於我們目前的營收指引，第四季大概會略低於 15%。如果你把這跟 2014、2015、2016 年相比，當時研發支出占比依序是 18%、17%、16%。現在我們大約在 15%。明年我們在絕對金額上會花得更多，原因正如你提到的。高 NA（High NA），不論是在我們自有場地，或是在 Zeiss SMT 的場地。此外，我們也會持續在整體式微影（Holistic Lithography）領域大力投資。我們其實正在加速那方面的投資。

A bit too early to give a number. It will be up, but I think it will be 14%. So it will be up in absolute terms. It will come down in relative terms towards our target of 13% in 2020.

現在要給出具體數字還太早。會上升，但我認為會是 14%。所以絕對金額會增加。相對占比則會往我們 2020 年 13% 的目標下降。

CapEx, we're not that super CapEx intense ourselves. We spend around EUR 200 million for the first 9 months. I usually don't guide, but assume that we're getting out somewhere between EUR 270 million, EUR 280 million. The last 3 years, we're somewhere between EUR 310 million and EUR 370 million. So this year, we'll be around 3% only of revenue. Our long-term model is 4%. And there, you should expect it to come up a little bit over the next 2 or 3 years, but not beyond the 4%, I think, that we have in our 2020 model. And that is, indeed, to prepare the site for high NA prototypes and high NA manufacturing later on.

CapEx（資本支出）方面，我們自己其實不是那種資本支出特別密集的公司。前 9 個月我們大約花了 2 億歐元。我通常不提供指引，但你可以假設全年大概會落在 2.7 億到 2.8 億歐元之間。過去 3 年我們大概在 3.1 億到 3.7 億歐元之間。所以今年大概只占營收的 3%。我們的長期模型是 4%。因此你應該預期未來 2 到 3 年會略為上升，但我認為不會超過我們 2020 年模型中的 4%。而這確實是為了讓廠區為高 NA 原型機以及後續的高 NA 量產做好準備。

Tax rate model is 14%. The innovation box, negotiations have been going very well. We're in the documentation phase. So we have a principal agreement. We're in the documentation phase that very well supports our 14% model. As it relates to the outcome of the coalition negotiations here in the Netherlands, they're -- and there's no law yet. That's just a proposal. But if that comes through, the benefit of the innovation box will reduce slightly -- without going into the technical details, will reduce slightly, but it's accompanied with a reduction in the corporate tax rate. So both are literally offsetting to each other.

稅率模型是 14%。創新盒（innovation box）的協商進展非常順利。我們目前在文件作業階段。所以我們已經有原則性協議。我們正在進行文件作業階段，這非常支持我們 14% 的模型。至於荷蘭這邊聯合政府談判的結果——目前還沒有法律。那只是提案。但如果最終通過，創新盒的優惠幅度會略微降低——不深入技術細節的話，會略微降低——但同時也會伴隨公司稅率下調。所以兩者基本上會彼此抵銷。

There may be a slight timing difference that the reduction of the benefit comes earlier than the reduction of the corporate tax rate, but I think that will not be a significant impact on the 14% model, Andrew.

可能會有些微的時點差異，也就是優惠縮減可能會早於公司稅率下調發生，但我認為這對 14% 的模型不會造成顯著影響，Andrew。

The next question comes from Mr. Francois Meunier.

下一個問題來自 Francois Meunier 先生。

Yes. I've got questions regarding the ecosystem of EUVs. In your opening remark, you talked about the pellicle withstanding a 250-watt EUV beam, which is really good. Hopefully, it doesn't get too dark too quickly. If you could give us a bit of an update regarding the other elements of the ecosystem, like the photoresist, the mask manufacturing, but also maybe more longer term, the actinic mask inspection tool that we've been waiting for a very long time now.

是的。我有一些關於 EUV 生態系的問題。在你們的開場說明中，你提到薄膜（pellicle）可以承受 250 瓦的 EUV 光束，這非常好。希望它不會太快變得太暗。你能否就生態系的其他要素給我們一些更新，例如光阻（photoresist）、光罩製造（mask manufacturing），以及可能更長期的、我們已經等了很久的放射波段（actinic）光罩檢測工具（mask inspection tool）？

Yes. To start with your last one, the actinic inspection tool is not an issue where we are today, and I don't think it's going to be an issue for the 7-nanometer ramp either. I mean, we're going to patent the inspection. So we basically print the photomask, and you inspect the pattern on the repeatable defects. And then you can now weigh this on the photomask. And you inspect the photomask with e-beam preferably, and then you can do the correction.

好的。先從你最後一個問題開始，放射波段檢測工具在我們目前的階段不是問題，我也不認為它會成為 7 奈米爬坡的問題。我的意思是，我們會對檢測方法申請專利。基本上我們先印製光罩，然後檢查圖形上的可重複缺陷（repeatable defects）。接著你現在可以把這些在光罩上做權衡/評估。你最好用電子束（e-beam）來檢測光罩，然後就可以進行修正。

So masks, I think we have all the solutions that we can think of for the 7-nanometer introduction. Photoresist actually makes some good progress, and especially on the sensitivity side. I mean, we're seeing continuous numbers coming back out of the industry and industry participants on sensitivity of the photoresist, which is good, because the more sensitive the photoresist is, the faster you can move the wafer, the higher the throughput.

所以在光罩方面，我認為針對 7 奈米導入，我們已具備所有能想到的解決方案。光阻其實也取得了不錯的進展，特別是在感度（sensitivity）方面。我的意思是，我們持續看到產業與相關參與者回傳的光阻感度數據在改善，這是好事，因為光阻越敏感，你就能越快移動晶圓，產出率（throughput）就越高。

So pellicles, you just mentioned, pellicles being able to withstand 250 watts of EUV power is very good. So I think from an ecosystem point of view, all those elements are increasingly coming to phase, where you can call them mass production-ready.

至於薄膜，你剛提到薄膜能承受 250 瓦的 EUV 功率，這非常好。所以我認為從生態系角度來看，這些要素都正逐步進入一個階段，你可以稱之為已愈來愈接近量產就緒（mass production-ready）。

The next question comes from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

Yes, JPMorgan. My question is regarding DRAM, Peter. I mean, DRAM is possibly likely to use EUV in 2019. But I mean, there haven't been new DRAM fabs built in the last decade with DRAM capacity having internal demand, et cetera. Do you see the 2 actually -- for the footprint of the EUV tool, et cetera, that to get the EUV tool into DRAM fabs, that do you need actually new DRAM capacity rebuilt? Or based on what your application is, you know already that these existing fabs can be actually upgraded to EUV once the conversion starts? And how quick do you expect a memory DRAM conversion to happen? And I want a follow-up after that.

是的，我是 JPMorgan。Peter，我的問題是關於 DRAM。我的意思是，DRAM 很可能在 2019 年開始使用 EUV。但過去十年並沒有新建 DRAM 晶圓廠，DRAM 產能也有內部需求等因素。你是否認為——就 EUV 設備的占地（footprint）等而言——要把 EUV 設備導入 DRAM 廠，是否其實需要新建/重建 DRAM 產能？或者依你們對應用端的了解，一旦開始轉換，現有晶圓廠其實就能升級到 EUV？你預期記憶體 DRAM 的轉換會多快發生？之後我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think on the first shipment to DRAM fabs will be to existing fabs. So we don't need to build new fabs to house an EUV tool. However, if you say we're going to use EUV more broadly and widely in DRAM in the next decade, I'm pretty sure it's going to be fabs built that can accommodate a larger number of EUV tools.

是的。我認為第一批出貨到 DRAM 晶圓廠會先到既有晶圓廠。因此我們不需要為了容納一台 EUV 設備而新建晶圓廠。不過，如果你說未來十年我們會在 DRAM 更廣泛、更普遍地使用 EUV，我相當確定將會興建能夠容納更多 EUV 設備的晶圓廠。

Now as a matter -- when you said the last decade, no new DRAM fabs, I may remind you that we have in Korea L17 and M14, which were completely new fabs, which actually are very large fabs that actually drove up the available capacity a couple of years ago, 3 or 4 years ago, to quite significant heights, which I think also led to an oversupply of DRAM at that time. Well, that's not happening today. Well, we're not seeing the announcement of any major new DRAM fab. So that means that the EUV tools that we will be shipping will be shipping to existing fabs that will be able to take them.

現在就你提到過去十年沒有新的 DRAM 晶圓廠這件事——我想提醒你，我們在韓國有 L17 和 M14，那些都是全新的晶圓廠，而且規模非常大，幾年前（大約 3 或 4 年前）大幅推升了可用產能到相當高的水準，我認為這也在當時導致了 DRAM 供給過剩。嗯，今天不是那樣。嗯，我們沒有看到任何大型新 DRAM 晶圓廠的公告。所以這表示我們將出貨的 EUV 設備會出貨到能夠接納它們的既有晶圓廠。

And quickly following up, I mean, you've taken a stake now in Carl Zeiss and how that will be showing up on your P&L maybe for the full year this year or next year, because there will probably be a dividend payment from Carl Zeiss, and then there's going to be outgoing payments from you regarding funding their CapEx plans for high NA as well as the R&D for high NA.

再快速追問一下，你們現在已經入股 Carl Zeiss，這會如何反映在你們的損益表上，可能是今年全年或明年，因為 Carl Zeiss 可能會支付股利，然後你們也會有對外支付，用於資助他們針對 high NA 的資本支出計畫，以及 high NA 的研發。

Okay. I'll take that, Sandeep. If you recall, we have entered into 2 separate contracts. We have an equity investment, and then we have a high NA agreement. The equity investment is EUR 1 billion for 24.9%. That is already showing on the line equity method investments. If you look to our U.S. GAAP statements, you already see that there. And that will show a P&L contribution from Carl Zeiss' profit to us. So that's basically 24.9% of the profit is going to show in our P&L. It will show for the first time in Q4. So you see the investment already, but you don't see any contribution in Q3. And that simply has to do with our close process being faster than SMT's close process. So the accounting rules allow us there to do a 3-month offset.

好的。Sandeep，我來回答。如果你記得，我們簽了兩份獨立的合約。一份是股權投資，另一份是 high NA 協議。股權投資為 10 億歐元，取得 24.9%。這已經反映在權益法投資那一行。如果你看我們的美國 GAAP 財報，你已經可以在那裡看到。而且 Carl Zeiss 的獲利也會對我們產生損益貢獻。也就是說，他們獲利的 24.9% 會反映在我們的損益表。這將在第四季首次呈現。所以你已經看到投資，但在第三季還看不到任何貢獻。這純粹是因為我們的結帳流程比 SMT 的結帳流程更快。因此會計準則允許我們採用 3 個月的時間差。

And for Q2, we only really had 4 days. So we didn't bother to put that in Q3 because it's not material. We will walk you through the math on how that profit will show up in our P&L because it wouldn't be accounting if it would be easy, because we'll have to do a lot of adjustments here. First of all, they are IFRS. We have to translate that into U.S. GAAP. Believe it or not, at 24.9%, you need to do like a mini purchase price allocation. So there will be some amortization of intangibles, writeup of inventories, all the good stuff that you know. So it will be slightly convoluted at the beginning. But the end result, and from a cash perspective, SMT is a very, very healthy profitable business, and we'll get solid returns on our investment there.

而在第二季，我們實際上只有 4 天。所以我們沒有把它放進第三季，因為不具重大性。我們會帶你們走一遍這些獲利將如何反映在我們損益表上的計算方式，因為如果會計很容易就不叫會計了，我們需要做很多調整。首先，他們採用 IFRS。我們必須把它轉換成美國 GAAP。信不信由你，在 24.9% 的持股下，你需要做一個類似小型的收購價格分攤（purchase price allocation）。所以會有一些無形資產攤銷、存貨重估等你熟悉的那些項目。因此一開始會稍微複雜一些。但最終結果是，從現金角度來看，SMT 是一個非常、非常健康且獲利的業務，我們會在那筆投資上取得穩健的報酬。

As it relates to the high NA agreement, we will make R&D contributions, and we will make CapEx contributions. The R&D contributions will show up in our R&D line. Again, it gets complicated. Some of it has to go through the equity piece because we're a partial owner as well, but the CapEx piece will be recorded on our assets, PP&E repayments. And as a reminder there, the return on our investment, other than getting a high NA tool, is that we get these investments back through adjustments to the price of the lenses later on when we take delivery of the lenses, similar to what we have done previously with our partner there.

至於 high NA 協議，我們會做研發出資，也會做資本支出出資。研發出資會列在我們的研發費用項下。同樣地，這會變得複雜。其中一部分必須透過權益法那一塊處理，因為我們也是部分股東；但資本支出那一部分會記錄在我們的資產中，作為不動產、廠房及設備（PP&E）的回收/償付。提醒一下，除了取得 high NA 設備之外，我們投資的回報方式是：當我們之後交付鏡頭時，會透過對鏡頭價格的調整把這些投資收回，類似我們先前與該合作夥伴所做的方式。

So right now, you have just R&D in there, a couple of prepayments and the investment. And then starting next quarter, you'll have some of the profits in there as well. And we'll walk you through in more details in January.

所以目前你看到的只有研發費用、一些預付款以及這筆投資。然後從下個季度開始，你也會看到部分獲利納入其中。我們會在一月提供更詳細的說明。

The next question comes from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

It's Bank of America Merrill Lynch. So I have basically a quick question on EUV gross margins in the third quarter. Maybe if you could give us some color around that, and if you still expect EUV to be at a breakeven level this year, given you're deferring a lot more revenue -- EUV revenues than you were expecting to defer at the end of the last quarter.

我是美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）。我有一個關於第三季 EUV 毛利率的簡短問題。也許你們可以提供一些背景說明；另外，鑑於你們遞延的收入——EUV 收入——比上季末預期要遞延得更多，你們是否仍預期今年 EUV 會在損益兩平水準？

And secondly, just as a follow-up, if you could give us some color on what drove these deferrals. Last quarter, I was thinking you'd be doing around EUR 1.1 billion in EUV revenues, and now it looks like it's going to be a bit lower than that.

第二個是追問，你們能否說明一下是什麼因素導致這些遞延。上季我原本以為你們的 EUV 收入大約會是 11 億歐元，但現在看起來會比那個數字低一些。

Yes. First of all, I'll check if it's still together after the year to breakeven level. And then like we said, 20% next year, 40% in 2020. We have always said we will be above EUR 1 billion. I think at the beginning of the year, we said EUR 1.22 billion. It always depends on which customers do you ship to and when do you ship. I mean, admittedly, the 12 shipments this year are back-end-loaded. And from that perspective, a little bit more goes into next year.

是的。首先，我會確認今年結束時是否仍能維持在損益兩平水準。然後如同我們所說，明年 20%，2020 年 40%。我們一直都說會高於 10 億歐元。我想在年初我們說的是 12.2 億歐元。這總是取決於你出貨給哪些客戶以及何時出貨。坦白說，今年的 12 台出貨是偏向年底集中。從這個角度看，有更多會落到明年。

Deferrals, in general, I'll address them by multiple different items. I mean, it could be that you have a new component in the system, which you can demonstrate in your factory. But you have to replicate in the customer factory to take full revenue. And that is the main reason why the revenue this year came down. We have made an adjustment to some systems. It's not a performance adjustment. It's a maintainability adjustment, which is good news because it will help us down the road with service profitability, which, if you recall, is a main contributor to get to the 14%. But since it's a new feature, we cannot go straight to what we achieved last year.

一般而言，遞延我會從幾個不同項目來說明。例如，你可能在系統中加入了一個新元件，你可以在自家工廠展示它。但你必須在客戶工廠複製/重現，才能認列全部收入。這是今年收入下修的主要原因。我們對部分系統做了調整。這不是效能調整。而是可維護性（maintainability）調整，這是好消息，因為它將在未來有助於提升服務的獲利能力；如你所記得，服務是達到 14% 的主要貢獻者。但由於這是新功能，我們無法直接達到去年所達成的狀態。

Revenue recognition at shipment, we've got to replicate it at what we call SAT, which is the Site Acceptance Test that the customers require. It's a little bit deferred. That's the difference from the beginning of the year. But it's good news. I think the rest we said earlier. We have a deferred balance that we will start netting into the number in 2018.

出貨時的收入認列，我們必須在我們所稱的 SAT 上重現，也就是客戶要求的現場驗收測試（Site Acceptance Test）。因此會稍微遞延。這就是與年初相比的差異。但這是好消息。我想其餘部分我們先前已經說過。我們有一個遞延餘額，將在 2018 年開始逐步沖回到數字中。

Very clear. Just a quick clarification on the R&D next year. Did I hear you correctly? Did you say it was going to be 14% of revenues?

非常清楚。我想就明年的研發再快速釐清一下。我有聽對嗎？你是說會是營收的14%嗎？

Yes. I said this year is around 15%. Next year will be around 14%. So it will go up in absolute terms. But right now, if you model 14%, you should be okay.

是的。我說今年大約是15%。明年大約會是14%。所以以絕對金額來看會增加。但就目前而言，如果你用14%來建模，應該就沒問題。

This year, it's -- I mean, looking at it so far, it looks like it's more around 13.5%, not 15%, unless -- actually, no, no, that's fine. Sorry. Apologies.

今年的話——我是說，就目前看起來，似乎更接近13.5%，不是15%，除非——其實，不不，沒關係。抱歉。不好意思。

We made progress, but I don't think we made that much progress.

我們有進展，但我不覺得我們進展到那麼多。

No, no. Of course. Ignore me. Sorry, that was my bad.

不，不。當然。別理我。抱歉，是我搞錯了。

No worries.

沒事。

Next question comes from Mr. Weston Twigg.

下一個問題來自Weston Twigg先生。

With KeyBanc Capital Markets. I had a couple questions. First, just on the uptick in IDM revenue. I was wondering if that was more EUV revenue recognition-related or if you're seeing a pickup in the 10-nanometer ramp? And is that increase in demand levels sustainable moving forward?

KeyBanc Capital Markets。我有幾個問題。第一個是關於IDM營收的上升。我想知道這主要是與EUV營收認列相關，還是你們看到10奈米爬坡加速？另外，這樣的需求提升在未來是否可持續？

Mainly driven by 10-nanometer, but there was a system shipped there as well in EUV, so a little bit of (inaudible).

主要是由10奈米帶動，但也有一套EUV系統在那邊出貨，所以也有一點（聽不清）。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, the installed base revenue, it's coming down quite a bit in the second half from the first half. Just wondering if you can help us understand what kind of growth you expect in 2018 on that line item.

了解。接著追問一下，已裝機基礎（installed base）營收在下半年相較上半年下降不少。想請你們協助我們理解，2018年在這個項目上你們預期會有什麼樣的成長。

Yes. I don't think that we're going to give that detail. Probably, in general, on 2018, there have been a lot of questions there as well lately. I can't be completely quantitative on this right now, but I think we can give you a few pieces that will help you form an opinion. And certainly, I don't want to go down to a customer level here, but we already talked about EUV. We get to EUR 1 billion this year, and then we get to EUR 2.5 billion next year. So that's a EUR 1.5 billion increase. You will have seen an extremely strong installed base revenue this year. I mean, we're going to almost EUR 2.7 billion, which is up 25%. And if you'll recall, we said in our longer-term trajectory, we see that business going up in average by 10%. Of course, the service part of it is a pretty stable growth. It's a function of the installed base, but then the options and upgrades are a little bit more volatile. But I would, right now, assume that, that business is flat to slightly up next year.

是。我想我們不會提供那麼細的細節。大致上，關於2018年，最近也有很多相關問題。我現在沒辦法給出完全量化的數字，但我想可以提供幾個要點，幫助你形成看法。當然，我不想在這裡細到客戶層級，但我們已經談過EUV。我們今年做到10億歐元，明年做到25億歐元。所以增加了15億歐元。你也會看到今年已裝機基礎營收非常強勁。我的意思是，我們將接近27億歐元，年增25%。如果你還記得，我們在較長期的軌跡中說過，我們看到這項業務平均成長約10%。當然，其中服務部分的成長相當穩定。它取決於已裝機基礎規模，但選配與升級則波動較大。但就目前而言，我會假設明年這項業務持平到小幅成長。

And then for the rest of the business, the combination of EUV, holistic, in memory and in logic, we have experienced an extremely strong year this year, and we see 2018 at approximately the same level. And you have a bit of evidence there also when you look at our backlog, we've got EUR 5.7 billion in backlog. And even though we don't guide to backlog, I think the Street expectation was about just over EUR 1 billion in the orders for last quarter, and we took almost twice as much, EUR 2.1 billion. So I think, without going into customer details, but you should expect another very strong 2018 from us.

至於其他業務，EUV、整體式（holistic），在記憶體與邏輯方面的組合，我們今年表現非常強勁，而我們看到2018年大約會維持在相近水準。你也可以從我們的在手訂單（backlog）看到一些佐證：我們有57億歐元的在手訂單。雖然我們不對在手訂單提供指引，但我想市場原本預期上季訂單大概略高於10億歐元，而我們接到幾乎是兩倍、21億歐元。所以我想，在不深入客戶細節的情況下，你應該預期我們2018年仍會非常強勁。

The next question comes from Mr. Douglas Smith.

下一個問題來自Douglas Smith先生。

It's Doug Smith from Agency Partners. Wolfgang, I was wondering if you could perhaps give us an approximate breakdown of the R&D spend between the EUV, metrology and inspection and DUV.

我是Agency Partners的Doug Smith。Wolfgang，我想請問你是否可以大致拆分一下研發支出在EUV、量測與檢測，以及DUV之間的分配？

I'll be -- if we get to about EUR 1.25 billion, I -- roughly, you see about half of that being spent on EUV. I don't know how far we have gone, but then on the other half, you have a good chunk of what I would call fundamental research that benefits all businesses. And then the -- but it's less than EUR 100 million, and then the balance of EUR 500 million is all the way towards DUV. But from a directional perspective, EUV -- we're still investing by the way, because we still have significant innovation. You heard about the 2000 coming out, for instance, now. We're just having upgrade of the first system to this 2000 level. But the rest is a bit more overweighed to deep UV, which over the next couple of years will start to come down. But applications, we're investing very heavily, like I said earlier in metrology.

我會——如果我們到大約12.5億歐元，我——大致上，你會看到其中約一半花在EUV上。我不確定我們講到多細，但在另一半裡，有相當一部分是我所稱的基礎研究，對所有業務都有助益。然後——但那部分少於1億歐元，接著剩下約5億歐元則是投入到DUV。但就方向性而言，EUV——順帶一提我們仍在投資，因為我們仍有顯著的創新。例如你剛才聽到2000機型推出。我們正把第一套系統升級到這個2000等級。但其餘部分則較偏向深紫外（DUV），而在接下來幾年會開始下降。但在應用方面，我們如同先前所說，在量測上投入非常多。

Right. And it's getting pretty close to the anniversary of the analyst meeting last year, where you provided the 2020 model update. I was wondering, when would you expect to update that again? A lot of other companies have provided some 2020 models based on an upwardly revised WFE market.

了解。而且也快到去年分析師會議的周年了，當時你們提供了2020年模型更新。我想問你們預期何時會再更新一次？許多其他公司已基於上修的WFE市場提供了一些2020年模型。

Yes. I mean, we haven't scheduled that yet, but we did one in '14. We did one in '16. So it's probably a good assumption that somewhere in '18, we're going to do one. I think we gave you quite a bit to work with because we pinpointed an EUR 11 billion revenue, but we gave some sensitivities, both around the market vector and the EUV intensity vector. And we're not updating this today. But I think what you can say is that the EUV adoption is well underway, and the lay accounts are not on the low end, as we talked before. And also, if anything, the market is very enthusiastic about end demand. So without updating it today, I think the probability on the low-low or the lower combination has gone down since the year. But expect we haven't picked a date yet, but I would say somewhere next year, we're going to do a session.

是。我們還沒排定，但我們在2014年做過一次。2016年也做過一次。所以合理推測我們會在2018年的某個時間再做一次。我想我們已經給了你不少可用資訊，因為我們鎖定了110億歐元營收，同時也提供了一些敏感度分析，涵蓋市場向量以及EUV強度向量。我們今天不會更新。但我想你可以說，EUV導入已在順利推進，而且如同先前所談，分層（lay）帳戶並不在低端。此外，如果有什麼變化的話，市場對終端需求非常熱情。所以在不於今日更新的前提下，我認為低-低或較低組合的機率自今年以來已下降。但我們還沒選定日期，不過我會說大概在明年某個時間，我們會做一場說明會。

If I may add, Doug. I think we actually gave you, also at the Analyst Day last year, a few scenarios. And Wolfgang alluded to it that you could argue that the, let's say, low scenario has become less likely. But I think you guys -- looking at where the market is, I think we gave you enough information to just pick whatever you feel is more appropriate, right? And right now, I think an update on that model is really something we will do next year. And I think you have enough to work with.

如果我可以補充一下，Doug。我想其實我們也在去年的分析師日給了你幾種情境。而Wolfgang也提到，你可以說，譬如說，低情境變得比較不可能。但我想你們——看市場目前的狀況，我認為我們已提供足夠資訊，讓你們選擇你們覺得更合適的情境，對吧？而目前來看，對那個模型的更新確實是我們明年會做的事。我想你們手上已經有足夠資訊可以運用。

And by the way, we first started to talk about 2020 2 years ago, and I think it's good that we have some followers now. That's no reason for us to come out with something different. May I remind you too of the fact that 1 year, 1.5 years ago, people were saying we were way too optimistic on our 2020 targets. And now people seem to indicate that we're too pessimistic on that target. We just stay very consistent on what we've said, and I think we've given you enough to work with to the upside, if you believe in that.

順帶一提，我們其實在兩年前就開始談 2020，我覺得現在我們有一些追隨者是件好事。但這不是我們要提出不同說法的理由。我也想提醒各位，1 年、1.5 年前，人們還說我們對 2020 目標過於樂觀。而現在人們似乎又表示我們對那個目標太悲觀。我們只是非常一致地維持我們所說的內容；如果你相信那一點，我想我們已經給了你足夠的上行空間可供判斷。

The next question comes from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani 先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. I really wanted to touch upon the topic of high NA EUV. Given the enthusiasm and the strong progress you have made around EUV, how are your conversations happening right now with your customers? What kind of traction or commitment are they showing towards high NA EUV? Do they want you to accelerate adoption? If so, what would make you do that? And also, what would that mean in terms of the supply chain besides the ZEISS deal that you've already carried out? I'm very keen to understand how the thought process is right now around high NA EUV adoption.

我是花旗的 Amit Harchandani。我很想談談 high NA EUV 這個主題。鑑於你們在 EUV 方面的熱度與強勁進展，你們目前與客戶的對話是如何進行的？他們對 high NA EUV 展現出什麼樣的牽引力或承諾？他們是否希望你們加速導入？如果是，什麼會促使你們這麼做？另外，除了你們已經完成的 ZEISS 交易之外，這對供應鏈會意味著什麼？我非常想了解目前對於 high NA EUV 導入的思考脈絡。

Yes, I think that's a very good question. I think in the latest discussions we've had with customers, there is no doubt they see the benefit of EUV full-stop. Now the question is about timing. And then we do see that from a timing point of view, there are some different requirements from customers from when they want to have the first tool. Now some of those customers would indicate, and then we have also pretty decent and deep discussions with them on what we could do there. So those customers indicated they would like to have this capability rather sooner than later. And if that would mean that we would have to set up an accelerated program, that actually means that we would also ask our customers to commit also in the acceleration and the cost of that acceleration. And that would be, I think, a precondition for us to accelerate.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我想在我們最近與客戶的討論中，毫無疑問他們看到了 EUV 的好處——就是 EUV 本身的好處。現在問題在於時程。而從時程角度來看，我們確實看到不同客戶對於何時想要第一台設備有不同的需求。其中一些客戶會表達這樣的想法，我們也與他們就我們能做些什麼進行了相當充分且深入的討論。因此，這些客戶表示他們希望能更早而不是更晚具備這項能力。而如果這意味著我們必須建立一個加速計畫，那也代表我們會要求客戶對加速本身以及加速所帶來的成本做出承諾。我認為這將是我們加速的前提條件。

Now this is the level of discussion that we are having today. Now -- and I think -- and it's not superficial. Those are pretty deep discussions. And we're pretty clear also on what it would take to accelerate and what are commitments from the customers, how that would have to look like, which, by the way, we haven't reached an agreement yet. So it's just for your information.

這就是我們今天討論的層級。而且——我認為——這並不膚淺。這些都是相當深入的討論。我們也非常清楚加速需要什麼、客戶需要做出哪些承諾、以及應該以什麼形式呈現；順帶一提，我們目前還沒有達成協議。所以只是提供你參考。

Now on the supply side, the gating item here is really the new optics, the optics that comes from ZEISS. This is exactly why we did what Wolfgang explained earlier. With the investment in ZEISS, we signed the R&D and the CapEx program. That's the gating item. Both will get from an EUV source point of view, the EUV high NA tool will have the same EUV source. No source difference.

至於供應端，這裡真正的瓶頸項目其實是新的光學系統，也就是來自 ZEISS 的光學系統。這正是我們做了 Wolfgang 先前所解釋之事的原因。透過對 ZEISS 的投資，我們簽署了研發以及資本支出（CapEx）計畫。那就是瓶頸項目。從 EUV 光源的角度來看，EUV high NA 設備將會使用相同的 EUV 光源。光源沒有差異。

The tool will be bigger, but we know how to deal with that. The real challenge is in the optics, and this is why we have started to go into this agreement with Carl Zeiss. And I would say that from this point onwards and from this moment onwards, that's really the gating item in this project.

設備會更大，但我們知道如何處理。真正的挑戰在於光學系統，這也是為什麼我們開始與 Carl Zeiss 進入這項協議。我會說，從此刻起、從現在開始，這確實就是這個專案的瓶頸項目。

And just maybe as an unrelated follow-up. You obviously had no EUV orders in this quarter, but I understand that you work on a commitment basis. You're in close touch with your customers. You could potentially still be doing some work in progress even if the administrative stuff hasn't happened. But at what stage does it become a balance sheet risk and you say, "Okay. We really need these orders. Otherwise, we cannot just keep on working based on the conversations." Is there is some kind of limitation or some hard line? I guess, where it's coming from is what's the minimum level of orders that I would need to see next quarter in order to ensure you'll still end up shipping 30 -- or at least 30 shipments in 2019?

另外，或許作為一個不相關的追問。你們這一季顯然沒有 EUV 訂單，但我理解你們是以承諾為基礎在運作。你們與客戶保持密切聯繫。即使行政流程尚未完成，你們仍可能在進行一些在製工作。但在什麼階段會變成資產負債表風險，讓你們說：「好吧。我們真的需要這些訂單。否則我們不能只靠對話就一直做下去。」是否有某種限制或硬性界線？我想問題的核心是：為了確保你們在 2019 年仍能出貨 30 台——或至少 30 台——你們需要在下一季看到的最低訂單量是多少？

I think what you would then need to see is that 2018 is fully booked and the first part of 2019 also. And like I said, we're also working closely with our supply team to get some of the cycle times down. And actually, that should result over the next couple of quarters into at least a lead time reduction. Don't forget -- I mean, the order pressure is really driven by the fact that we have a 24-month lead time in total, which is, of course, very, very long if you look at the planning process of our customers.

我認為你需要看到的是：2018 年已經完全滿單，且 2019 年的前半段也已經排滿。而且如我所說，我們也正與供應團隊密切合作，將部分週期時間縮短。實際上，這應該會在接下來幾個季度帶來至少交期的縮短。別忘了——我的意思是，訂單壓力主要是因為我們總體交期是 24 個月；如果看客戶的規劃流程，這當然是非常、非常長的時間。

So -- but I have no worry that we will be at that point where we close out 2018 and moving nicely into 2019, also as a result of the order intake in Q4.

所以——但我不擔心我們會走到那個地步；我們會在 2018 年收尾，並順利邁入 2019 年，這也將是第四季接單的結果之一。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, well, we've run out of time. If you were unable to get through on the call and still have a question, feel free to contact the ASML investor relations department with your question. And with that, I'd like to say it's been my great pleasure to host 60 or so of these quarterly conference calls over the last many years. But with this call, it will be my last. As previously shared, I will be turning over my global IR management responsibilities with this quarter's results to Skip Miller and, therefore, you'll be hearing his voice instead of mine each quarter going forward. With that, I'd like to thank you for your mostly strict adherence to my call instructions and your kind patience in any safe harbor references I might have made over these many years. Now on behalf of ASML's board of management, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today.

各位女士、先生，說到這裡，我們時間用完了。如果你未能在電話會議中提問但仍有問題，歡迎聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門提出你的問題。另外，我想說，在過去許多年裡，能主持大約 60 場這樣的季度電話會議，是我莫大的榮幸。但這通電話會議將是我最後一次主持。如先前所分享，我將在本季財報後把全球投資人關係（IR）管理職責交接給 Skip Miller，因此往後每一季你們將聽到他的聲音而不是我的。在此，我要感謝各位多年來大多嚴格遵守我在會議中的指示，也感謝各位對我可能在這些年裡所做的任何安全港（safe harbor）聲明引用所展現的耐心。現在，我謹代表 ASML 管理董事會，感謝各位今天的參與。

Peter, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it.

Peter，如果你能正式結束這通電話會議，我將不勝感激。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2017 third quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you.

各位女士、先生，ASML 2017 年第三季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。你們現在可以掛斷電話。謝謝。