艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2016 second quarter financial results conference call on July 20, 2016. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask your questions. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2016年7月20日ASML 2016年第二季財務業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML 介紹結束後，將有機會提出問題。（操作員指示）現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Arnan, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. As per our usual habit, joining me today from ASML headquarters in Veldhoven, The Netherlands is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2016 second quarter results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they're received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com and a replay of the call will be available on our website.

謝謝你，阿南。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。按照我們的慣例，今天與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬的 ASML 總部前來的還有 ASML 首席執行官 Peter Wennink；以及我們的首席財務官 Wolfgang Nickl。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2016年第二季業績。通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 asml.com 上進行現場直播，並且會議重播也將在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2016 results conference call. You might have noticed that I'm suffering from a bad cold so if you wonder who's on the phone, it's me Peter. So before we begin the Q&A session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter and provide you our view on the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of the Q2 financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook. Then I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current general business environment and our future business outlook. Wolfgang, if you will?

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝大家參加我們 2016 年第二季業績電話會議。您可能已經注意到我正患有重感冒，所以如果您想知道誰在打電話，那就是我，彼得。因此，在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對最近一個季度的情況進行概述和評論，並向大家介紹我們對未來幾季的看法。沃夫岡將首先回顧第二季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論。然後，我將對當前的整體商業環境和我們未來的業務前景進行進一步的評論，以完成介紹。沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome everyone. For Q2, our net sales came in at a very strong EUR1.74 billion including system sales of EUR1.25 billion driven by logic, which represented 65% of sales with memory representing the balance. Service and field option sales came in at EUR486 million. System sales included partial revenue for two EUV systems of approximately EUR100 million as forecasted at the beginning of last quarter. During the quarter we shipped an additional EUV 3350 system, which will lead to revenue in 2017. Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 42.6%, slightly above our guidance. R&D expenses came in at EUR270 million and SG&A expenses came in at EUR90 million, both essentially as we guided.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。第二季度，我們的淨銷售額達到非常強勁的 17.4 億歐元，其中系統銷售額為 12.5 億歐元，由邏輯驅動，佔銷售額的 65%，其餘為記憶體。服務和現場選項銷售額達到 4.86 億歐元。系統銷售額包括兩台 EUV 系統的部分收入，約 1 億歐元，這與上個季度初的預測一致。本季我們出貨了額外的 EUV 3350 系統，這將在 2017 年帶來收入。本季我們的毛利率為 42.6%，略高於我們的預期。研發費用為 2.7 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 9,000 萬歐元，基本上符合我們的預期。

Regarding the order book, Q2 system bookings came in at almost EUR1.6 billion. This represents a near doubling of orders from the previous quarter and demonstrates again the lumpy nature of our bookings that we discussed in April. As suggested in our last call, our bookings strength came from the logic sector supporting the 10 nanometer volume ramp plans of our customer. The growing strength in logic and flattening in memory also supports our previous commentary that the balance of 2016 will be logic driven against the stable backdrop of memory spend. We took orders for four new EUV systems bringing our total EUV production tool order book to 10 systems valued at about EUR1 billion. Our overall system backlog now adds up to approximately EUR3.4 billion.

就訂單而言，第二季系統訂單金額接近 16 億歐元。這意味著訂單量比上一季幾乎翻了一番，再次證明了我們在四月討論過的訂單量的波動性。正如我們上次電話會議中所提到的，我們的訂單優勢來自於邏輯部門對客戶 10 奈米批量生產計劃的支援。邏輯領域的成長和記憶體領域的趨於平緩也支持了我們先前的評論，在記憶體支出穩定的背景下，2016 年的平衡將由邏輯驅動。我們接獲了四套新型 EUV 系統的訂單，使我們的 EUV 生產工具訂單總量達到 10 套系統，價值約 10 億歐元。我們整個系統積壓訂單目前總計約 34 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. Quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments came in at EUR2.93 billion. Our free cash flow for the quarter returned to a more normal level of EUR381 million after two quarters of quite varied cash flows due to significant amount of customer prepayments on orders received in Q4 in turn resulting in a negative free cash flow for Q1. During Q2 we paid our 2015 dividend worth EUR446 million and executed share buybacks worth EUR164 million. With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the third quarter of 2016. We expect Q3 total net sales of approximately EUR1.7 billion. As indicated by our backlog, logic shipment strength in Q2 is set to continue in Q3. We do not expect any EUV system revenue in Q3.

轉向資產負債表。本季現金、現金等價物及短期投資較上季成長 29.3 億歐元。由於第四季度收到的訂單有大量客戶預付款，導致第一季的自由現金流為負，經過兩個季度的現金流波動之後，本季度我們的自由現金流恢復到了 3.81 億歐元的正常水平。在第二季度，我們支付了價值 4.46 億歐元的 2015 年度股息，並執行了價值 1.64 億歐元的股票回購。接下來，我想談談我們對 2016 年第三季的期望和指導。我們預計第三季總淨銷售額約為 17 億歐元。正如我們的積壓訂單所示，第二季的邏輯出貨量強勁勢頭將在第三季延續。我們預計第三季不會有任何 EUV 系統收入。

We expect to ship one EUV 3350 system in Q3 leading to partial system revenue in Q4. Last quarter service and field option sales came at EUR486 million. We continue to plan a year-over-year increase of approximately 10% in 2016 for this portion of our business. Field growth continues to be driven by strong demand for Holistic Lithography options, high value upgrades, and a growing install base. For Q3 we expect field options and services revenue of well above EUR500 million. For the full year, we expect overall sales to exceed our 2015 record year. The ultimate level will depend on the timing of EUV revenue recognition as well as the size of the initial ramp of 10/7 nanometer capacity at our logic customers. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to come in at around 47%. R&D expenses for the third quarter will be about EUR275 million and SG&A is expected to again come in at about EUR90 million.

我們預計將在第三季出貨一套 EUV 3350 系統，在第四季帶來部分系統收入。上個季度服務和現場選項銷售額達到 4.86 億歐元。我們繼續計劃在 2016 年實現該部分業務年增長約 10%。整體光刻技術選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的強勁需求繼續推動該領域的成長。我們預計第三季油田選擇權和服務收入將遠超過 5 億歐元。我們預計全年整體銷售額將超過 2015 年創下的紀錄。最終水準將取決於 EUV 收入確認的時間以及我們的邏輯客戶 10/7 奈米產能的初始提升規模。預計第三季的毛利率約為47%。第三季的研發費用約為 2.75 億歐元，預計銷售、一般及行政費用將再次達到約 9,000 萬歐元。

Regarding share buybacks, I would like to mention that we will pause our share buyback program for a few quarters while we are in the midst of the HMI acquisition process. At this time we however expect to complete the EUR1.5 billion program for 2016 and 2017, which we announced earlier this year. And finally, a couple of comments on our intent to acquire HMI as announced on June 16. On July 4, we placed two Eurobonds totaling EUR1.5 billion. The proceeds have been received after quarter-end and are intended to be used for partial financing of the acquisition. We expect the acquisition to close in Q4 of 2016 subject to customary closing conditions including the approval of HMI shareholders scheduled to occur on August 3 and government regulatory approvals from Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

關於股票回購，我想提一下，在我們進行 HMI 收購的過程中，我們將暫停股票回購計畫數季。不過，我們目前預計將完成今年稍早宣布的 2016 年和 2017 年 15 億歐元的計畫。最後，就我們 6 月 16 日宣布的收購 HMI 的意向，我發表幾點評論。7月4日，我們發行了兩筆總額為15億歐元的歐洲債券。該收益已於季度末收到，併計劃用於收購的部分融資。我們預計此次收購將於 2016 年第四季完成，但須滿足慣例成交條件，包括定於 8 月 3 日獲得的 HMI 股東批准以及台灣、韓國、新加坡和美國的政府監管部門批准。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給你，彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, our business continues to perform well. We took system orders of almost EUR1.6 billion and posted sales of EUR1.7 billion, which were very much in line with the prior expectations. Hence our business is developing along the lines that we've communicated over the last few quarters. While Wolfgang reviewed our outlook for the balance of 2016, there are a couple of things I believe are worthwhile highlighting. First, our memory business continues to remain fairly robust with DRAM orders and shipments supporting continued shrink for cost mostly to low 20 nanometer and sub 20 nanometer nodes. Meanwhile NAND manufacturers continue to qualify their 3D NAND products and are ramping their processes through new fab constructions as well as all the 2D NAND fab conversions.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如沃夫岡所強調的，我們的業務持續表現良好。我們獲得了近 16 億歐元的系統訂單，銷售額達到 17 億歐元，這與先前的預期非常一致。因此，我們的業務正在按照我們過去幾季所傳達的思路發展。當沃夫岡回顧我們對 2016 年平衡的展望時，我認為有幾件事值得強調。首先，我們的記憶體業務持續保持相當強勁，DRAM 訂單和出貨量支援成本持續縮減，主要縮減至 20 奈米以下和 20 奈米以下節點。同時，NAND 製造商繼續對其 3D NAND 產品進行認證，並透過新晶圓廠建造以及所有 2D NAND 晶圓廠轉換來提升其製程水準。

Secondly, as seen in our second quarter results evidence of the 10-nanometer logic ramp is now clear, as our sales to our combined logic customers has developed as expected. This will continue in Q3 supported by strong orders in Q2. As a result, we see combined sales in Q3 at the level of EUR1.7 billion. And as mentioned on previous occasions, the ultimate spend levels for logic in 2016 will depend on, amongst the other things, both the level of end demand and the rate at which our customers will be able to execute their 10/7 nanometer ramps. On the ASML product side, let me jump straight into a discussion on the development of our EUV business. In EUV you're all aware that our continued focus has been on improving EUV stability, availability, and productivity; which are the key performance metrics that drive new technology adoption.

其次，正如我們第二季的業績所見，10 奈米邏輯技術提升的證據現在已經很明顯，因為我們對合併邏輯客戶的銷售額已經按照預期發展。受第二季強勁訂單的支撐，這一趨勢將在第三季持續下去。因此，我們預計第三季的總銷售額將達到 17 億歐元。如同先前所提到的，2016 年邏輯的最終支出水準將取決於多種因素，其中包括最終需求水準以及客戶實現 10/7 奈米製程的速度。在 ASML 產品方面，讓我直接討論我們的 EUV 業務的發展。在 EUV 方面，大家知道我們一直致力於提高 EUV 的穩定性、可用性和生產力；這些都是推動新技術採用的關鍵績效指標。

The latest progress on these metrics was shared at SemiCon West last week and we have observed a peak wafer per day performance of 1,488 wafers and recorded system availabilities of over 80% on five field installed systems. These are encouraging results showing continued progress in EUV industrialization allowing for a growing customer confidence towards production adoption. We shipped two EUV systems year-to-date and are on target to ship an additional four to five systems this year, for which we have purchase orders in hand. We believe that the intake of four EUV production orders from two different customers this quarter when added to our existing six orders strongly signals the intent of our customers to insert EUV into production at their next full node transition.

這些指標的最新進展已於上週在 SemiCon West 上分享，我們觀察到每日晶圓峰值產量為 1,488 片晶圓，並且五個現場安裝的系統的系統可用性超過 80%。這些令人鼓舞的結果表明 EUV 工業化正在持續進步，從而增強了客戶對生產採用的信心。今年迄今為止，我們已經出貨了兩套 EUV 系統，並且計劃今年再出貨四到五套系統，目前我們手頭上已有採購訂單。我們相信，本季度從兩個不同的客戶那裡獲得的四個 EUV 生產訂單加上我們現有的六個訂單強烈表明了我們的客戶有意在下一個完整節點轉換時將 EUV 投入生產。

We expect our order book for our production systems to continue to grow in the coming quarters filling up our 2017 shipment capacity of approximately a dozen systems. The tools shipped over the next 12 to 18 months will support integration and device qualification using EUV technology for production insertion at logic sectors 7 nanometer node and at DRAM sectors mid-teens node. In Deep UV, the rollout of our TWINSCAN NXT:1980 immersion system is progressing well. Since introduction, we've shipped a total of 23 systems and upgraded an additional five systems at customer sites to NXT:1980 specifications. We have also installed an enhanced version of the TWINSCAN XT:1460 ArF dry system with a 40% improvement in matched machine overlay demonstrating our commitment to continue to improve the performance of our dry lithography product portfolio.

我們預計，我們生產系統的訂單將在未來幾季持續成長，達到 2017 年約十幾個系統的出貨量。未來 12 到 18 個月內交付的工具將支援使用 EUV 技術進行整合和設備鑑定，以便在邏輯扇區 7 奈米節點和 DRAM 扇區中十幾歲節點進行生產插入。在深紫外線領域，我們的 TWINSCAN NXT:1980 浸沒系統的推出進展順利。自推出以來，我們總共運送了 23 個系統，並在客戶現場將另外 5 個系統升級到 NXT:1980 規格。我們還安裝了增強版的 TWINSCAN XT:1460 ArF 乾式系統，匹配機器覆蓋率提高了 40%，這表明我們致力於繼續提高乾式光刻產品組合的性能。

In Holistic Lithography, we have shipped multiple YieldStar 350 metrology systems to our leading customers to support the qualification and ramp of the 10/7 nanometer logic node. And we have also released a new version of our process window enhancement software suite involving resolution enhancement techniques aimed at helping to maximize manufacturing yields for EUV and immersion-based lithography at the 7 and 5 nanometer logic and 1x memory nodes. Related to Holistic Lithography as announced in June, we have submitted an offer to acquire Hermes Microvision. It is also our clear intent to create through the combination of HMI's industry leading e-beam metrology technology and our unique Holistic Lithography product offering a new class of products for patterning control creating customer value through improved yield and time to market in their pursuit of the extension of Moore's Law.

在整體光刻領域，我們已向主要客戶交付了多台 YieldStar 350 計量系統，以支援 10/7 奈米邏輯節點的鑑定和提升。我們還發布了新版本的製程視窗增強軟體套件，其中包含解析度增強技術，旨在幫助最大限度地提高 7 奈米和 5 奈米邏輯和 1x 記憶體節點的 EUV 和浸沒式微影的製造產量。正如 6 月宣布的那樣，與 Holistic Lithography 相關，我們已提交收購 Hermes Microvision 的要約。我們也明確希望透過結合 HMI 業界領先的電子束計量技術與我們獨特的整體光刻產品，提供用於圖案控制的新型產品，透過提高產量和縮短上市時間來創造客戶價值，以追求摩爾定律的延伸。

And finally, as suggested last quarter, expect no changes in our business focus for the foreseeable future. Support of our customers' clear intent of moving EUV into production is our number one priority. Increasing customer confidence in EUV for manufacturing readiness is critical at this point in time. ASML remains committed to do everything within our capability and power to bring EUV to manufacturing readiness. And with that, we will be happy to take your questions.

最後，正如上個季度所建議的，在可預見的未來，我們的業務重點預計不會改變。支援客戶將 EUV 投入生產的明確意圖是我們的首要任務。此時，增強客戶對 EUV 製造準備的信心至關重要。ASML 隨時致力於盡一切努力使 EUV 達到製造水準。我們將非常樂意回答您的問題。

Thanks, Peter and Wolfgang. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. But beforehand, I'd like to ask that you kindly limit your question to one with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get on as many callers as possible. Now Arnan, can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝，彼得和沃爾夫岡。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。但在此之前，我希望您將問題限制為一個，並在必要時進行簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠接聽盡可能多的來電者。現在，Arnan，我們可以聽聽您的最後指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions) Sandeep Deshpande, JP Morgan.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，現在我們將開始問答環節。（操作員指示）Sandeep Deshpande，摩根大通。

My question is clearly, Peter, you're seeing very strong sales trends into the third quarter. How do you see your sales trends into the fourth quarter in terms of EUV? Do you expect of these tools that you're going to ship this year, in the earlier conversation that you mentioned that there was one tool to be recognized in Q4, are there likely to be more of those tools that ship in Q4 recognized in Q4 itself or is that going to be a 2017 phenomenon? And then secondly, regarding early part of 2017 with the foundry 10 nanometer ramp coming to an end by the end of this year, what do you see developing in the first half of next year before the whole? You probably will get a lot of EUV related orders in the second half of next year given that production starts in 2019. So, how do you see developments in the first half of 2017? Thank you.

我的問題很明顯，彼得，你看到第三季的銷售趨勢非常強勁。就 EUV 而言，您如何看待第四季的銷售趨勢？您是否期望您今年將要發布的這些工具能夠得到認可？在先前的談話中，您提到有一款工具將在第四季度得到認可，那麼在第四季度發布的這些工具中是否有可能有更多的工具在第四季度得到認可？或者這會成為 2017 年的現象？其次，關於 2017 年初，隨著代工 10 奈米製程的推出，您認為明年上半年甚至全年的發展如何？由於生產將於 2019 年開始，因此您可能會在明年下半年收到大量 EUV 相關訂單。那麼，您如何看待2017年上半年的發展呢？謝謝。

I'll answer the second part of the question. I think on the revenue recognition part, I'll refer to Wolfgang. As you said, the foundry 10 nanometer ramp ending towards the end of the year. As we know, the 10 nanometer ramp for foundry is in fact a part of a let's say bigger logic node, what you call the 10/7 nanometer node. So, what we will see in 2017 the 7 nanometer is expected to be as a strong and a large node. We expect that in 2017 the continuation as almost a logical evolution from 10 nanometer into the 7nanometer node to happen. And you're correct that for 2018 on EUV, we said it before, our production capacity in 2018 will double from 2017. And with the current customer focus on the introduction of EUV in the next logic nodes, yes, we do expect that we will see an order flow in 2017 for EUV to support the shipment capacity and I think also the shipment demand from our customers in 2018.

我來回答問題的第二部分。我認為在收入確認部分，我會參考沃夫岡。正如您所說，代工廠 10 奈米產能提升將於今年年底結束。我們知道，代工廠的 10 奈米坡道實際上是更大邏輯節點的一部分，即所謂的 10/7 奈米節點。因此，我們預計 2017 年 7 奈米將成為一個強大而龐大的節點。我們預計，2017 年將延續從 10 奈米到 7 奈米節點的邏輯演進。您說得對，對於 2018 年的 EUV，我們之前就說過，2018 年我們的產能將比 2017 年翻倍。由於目前客戶專注於在下一個邏輯節點引入 EUV，是的，我們確實預計 2017 年將看到 EUV 的訂單流，以支援出貨能力，並且我認為 2018 年客戶的出貨需求也將得到支持。

And as it relates to the 2016 EUV revenue recognition, as we mentioned, one of the areas that's not quite clear at this point yet, that's why we can't guide for the full year. But I think there are several elements that I can summarize. First of all, we just recognized partial revenue for two systems last quarter. It is expected that we meet more of the performance metrics this year so there will be additional revenue coming in the fourth quarter. Secondly, we have a shipment that's going out in Q3 that will also have partial revenue recognition in Q4. Thirdly, we will have shipped three systems by the end of Q3 so that leaves three to four systems in Q4 and amongst those systems are systems where we have the opportunity to recognize revenue.

正如我們所提到的，這與 2016 年 EUV 收入確認有關，其中一個領域目前尚不十分明確，這就是我們無法對全年做出預測的原因。但我認為有幾個要素可以總結一下。首先，我們上個季度剛剛確認了兩個系統的部分收入。預計我們今年將達到更多的績效指標，因此第四季將會有額外的收入。其次，我們有一批貨物將在第三季發出，並在第四季確認部分收入。第三，到第三季末，我們將交付三套系統，這樣第四季將剩下三到四套系統，這些系統中有一些是我們有機會實現收入的系統。

If we ship it in time and the customer accepts it in time that would enable us to recognize revenue also in the fourth quarter and namely those are the systems that were originally the 3300 where the customers have requested certain upgrades and have requested shipment. So, there it depends a little bit on the timing. So, those are the three main revenue drivers for Q4 and on top of that, you'll have a little bit of option service and other EUV related revenue that's also relatively difficult to predict at this point. So nothing in Q3, but then a meaningful number in Q4 and we'll focus on shipping and performing and then the revenue in Q4 should be pretty healthy on EUV. I hope that helps, Sandeep.

如果我們及時發貨並且客戶及時接受，那麼我們也可以在第四季度確認收入，也就是說，這些系統最初是 3300，客戶要求進行某些升級並要求發貨。所以，這有點取決於時間。因此，這些是第四季度的三個主要收入驅動因素，除此之外，您還會有一些可選服務和其他 EUV 相關收入，這些收入目前也相對難以預測。因此，第三季沒有任何變化，但第四季會有一個有意義的數字，我們將專注於出貨和性能，然後第四季的 EUV 收入應該會相當健康。我希望這會有所幫助，桑迪普。

Kai Korschelt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Kai Korschelt，美國銀行美林。

So, I wanted to just continue on the question on the fourth quarter. So I think you laid out the kind of EUV puts and takes, but also you said the lengths of the 10 nanometer and then 7 nanometer nodes and I think you also just said that you expect that to continue into next year. I think TSMC raised CapEx, they also said they have more customer interest at 7 nanometer than they had previously expected. So I guess my question is how conservative is the implied revenue run rate, which I believe is around EUR1.6 billion for Q4, as you see things right now? And then my second question was on EUV, you have a backlog of 10 tools now. Could you just kindly let us know how many customers make up those 10 tools? And also what is the magnitude of potential further orders in the second half of this year or will 2017 be a meaningfully bigger year potentially for EUV orders just so we know what to look for? Thank you.

所以，我想繼續討論第四季的問題。所以我認為您列出了 EUV 的用途和要求，而且您還提到了 10 奈米和 7 奈米節點的長度，我想您剛才也說過，您預計這種情況將持續到明年。我認為台積電提高了資本支出，他們也表示，7 奈米的客戶興趣比他們之前預期的要多。所以我想我的問題是，根據您現在的情況，隱含的收入運行率有多保守，我認為第四季度的收入運行率約為 16 億歐元？我的第二個問題是關於 EUV 的，您現在已經積壓了 10 種工具。您能否告訴我們這 10 種工具分別由多少客戶組成？另外，今年下半年潛在的進一步訂單量是多少，或者 2017 年是否會成為 EUV 訂單量有意義的更大一年，以便我們知道要尋找什麼？謝謝。

To answer your first question on the 10/7 nanometer continuation, we said it's going to be in 2017. I think what we're hearing our foundry customer say is that 7 nanometer is what they're focusing on. It's not only a single customer, but every foundry customer that we're having and that is talking to us about leading edge, they talk about 7 nanometer. So yes, I do think we will see that continuation in 2017. I don't think it has a major impact yet in Q4. It will have an impact in 2017 onwards. So I think for Q4 and we are not guiding for Q4, but I don't think you should see a significant upside in that particular quarter. That upside in that 7 nanometer node will definitely happen next year. Now the backlog of the 10 tools, how many customers do we have in the backlog? We currently have three customers in the backlog.

關於 10/7 奈米延續的第一個問題，我們說過它將在 2017 年實現。我認為我們聽到代工客戶說的是 7 奈米是他們關注的重點。不僅僅是單一客戶，而是我們的每個代工客戶都在與我們談論前沿技術，他們談論的是 7 奈米。所以是的，我確實認為我們將在 2017 年看到這種情況的延續。我認為它不會對第四季產生重大影響。這將在2017年及以後產生影響。因此，我認為對於第四季度，我們沒有為第四季度提供指導，但我認為你不應該看到該特定季度出現顯著的上漲。7奈米節點的優勢肯定會在明年實現。現在積壓了10種工具，我們積壓了多少客戶？我們目前有三位客戶處於積壓狀態。

And the magnitudes for orders in the second half of the year, I said it in my prepared comments, I believe that by the end of the year we'll have an order book that will be at a level whereby we can ship our entire production capacity for 2017, which is about a dozen tools. So 2017 definitely I think if you look at the customer roadmaps for the next generation logic node and also the mid-teens DRAM; then 2018, beginning 2019 that will be where first risk production will start. That means that the tools need to be in and that means that 2017 must see more orders than in 2016 for EUV because that ramp profile, I think our capacity is probably a good indication of the customer demand and our capacity can actually double for 2018 as compared to 2017. So yes, then we must also see more orders and we will.

至於下半年的訂單數量，我在準備好的評論中已經說過了，我相信到今年年底，我們的訂單量將達到可以發運 2017 年全部生產能力的水平，也就是大約十幾種工具。所以我認為，如果你看一下下一代邏輯節點和中期 DRAM 的客戶路線圖，那麼 2017 年肯定是；然後從 2018 年到 2019 年初，將開始首次風險生產。這意味著需要有工具，也意味著 2017 年 EUV 的訂單必須比 2016 年多，因為這種成長曲線，我認為我們的產能可能很好地表明了客戶的需求，與 2017 年相比，2018 年我們的產能實際上可以翻倍。是的，我們還必須看到更多的訂單，而且我們也會看到的。

C.J. Muse, Evercore ISI.

C.J. Muse，Evercore ISI。

First question, I was hoping you could elaborate on the 1Y nanometer DRAM EUV orders that you received this quarter. So as part of that, would love to hear is that two or three tools and when you expect to see follow-on orders and whether that should come from just one chip maker or you expect that from all as they migrate down to 1Y?

第一個問題，我希望您能詳細說明本季度收到的 1Y 奈米 DRAM EUV 訂單。因此，作為其中的一部分，我很想聽聽是否有兩三種工具，以及您預計何時會看到後續訂單，以及這些訂單是否應該僅來自一家晶片製造商，或者您是否預計隨著它們遷移到 1Y，所有晶片製造商都會有後續訂單？

You are talking about the Deep UV tools?

您說的是 Deep UV 工具嗎？

No, EUV tools.

不，是 EUV 工具。

I think that clearly EUV is focused on the mid-teens DRAM node. I'm not going to go into customer specifics, but you can imagine that leaders act first and how many tools will we ship. This is the first, it's clear that others will follow, but we also need to put it into perspective. Our expectation is that EUV will be used at mid-teen DRAM node for about two layers. So it's a sizeable business, but number of layers is limited. So yes, there will be more tool orders following. It will not stay with this one or two, it will be indeed more, but it's not lot a level of layer accounts that we see in the advanced logic nodes for our logic customers.

我認為 EUV 顯然專注於十幾歲的 DRAM 節點。我不會談論客戶的具體情況，但你可以想像領導者會先採取行動，然後我們會運送多少工具。這是第一次，顯然其他人也會效仿，但我們也需要正確看待它。我們預計 EUV 將在 15 到 20 之間的 DRAM 節點上使用約兩層。因此，這是一項規模龐大的業務，但層數有限。所以是的，接下來將會有更多的工具訂單。它不會停留在這一兩個，它確實會更多，但它不是我們在邏輯客戶的高級邏輯節點中看到的層級帳戶。

If I could follow up on your 4Q outlook. Can you kind of help us out in terms of thinking in terms of the uncertainly, how much of it is related to the timing of EUV recognition as opposed to uncertainty as to what demand will look like for 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer DUV tools? And as part of that question, do you expect DUV to actually decline QonQ in Q4 as there is a pause at the Tier 1 foundry maker as they move from 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer? Thank you.

我是否可以跟進您對第四季的展望？您能否幫助我們思考不確定性，其中有多少與 EUV 認可的時間有關，以及對 10 奈米和 7 奈米 DUV 工具的需求的不確定性？作為問題的一部分，您是否預計 DUV 實際上會在第四季度環比下降，因為一級代工廠商在從 10 奈米轉向 7 奈米的過程中出現了暫停？謝謝。

I'll take that. First of all in my script, I said that the record level of 2015 that we would exceed that. So in that sense albeit to Peter's point, don't expect huge upsides but we will clearly view that at this point as some sort of a floor. And you can see in the EUV, like I mentioned, the upgraded 3300s. If they recognize or not recognize; that EUR60 million, EUR70 million tool holds pretty substantial. And to the 10/7 nanometer ramp, somebody mentioned earlier that TSMC has raised the CapEx budget by $0.5 billion. They seem to be pretty confident. I'd like to just remind you that one of these tools is EUR50 million and it can very easily be that two or three tools go to the left or the right of a quarter and then it's also a pretty substantial difference.

我會接受的。首先，在我的腳本中，我說過我們將超越 2015 年的記錄水準。因此，從這個意義上來說，儘管彼得的觀點是，不要期待巨大的上漲，但我們會清楚地將其視為某種底線。正如我所提到的，您可以在 EUV 中看到升級後的 3300。不管他們承認與否；那個價值 6000 萬歐元、7000 萬歐元的工具相當可觀。對於 10/7 奈米工藝，先前有人提到台積電已將資本支出預算提高了 5 億美元。他們看起來非常有信心。我只想提醒你，其中一個工具的價值是 5000 萬歐元，而且很容易出現兩個或三個工具出現在一個季度的左邊或右邊的情況，這也是一個相當大的差異。

As it relates to Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 revenue recognition, again we will guide you as we ship these tools; but we ship like we said three to four tools in the last quarter of the year so they will not all recognize in the last quarter. So, you should assume that we're going on to a more regular EUV revenue floor. Also quite frankly as we show that we can reliably install these tools and we can therefore, like we discussed on prior call, hopefully recognize at least portions of it much closer to shipment date rather than waiting for the complete installation in the field. So, 2017 will make this all closer connected to the shipment date. I hope this helps, C.J.

由於它與 Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4 收入確認有關，我們將在運送這些工具時再次為您提供指導；但正如我們所說，我們在今年最後一個季度推出了三到四種工具，因此它們不會在最後一個季度全部被認可。因此，您應該假設我們正在進入更常規的 EUV 收入底線。坦白說，正如我們表明的那樣，我們可以可靠地安裝這些工具，因此，就像我們在之前的電話中討論的那樣，我們希望在接近裝運日期時識別出至少部分工具，而不是等待現場完成安裝。因此，2017 年將使這一切與發貨日期更加緊密地聯繫在一起。我希望這會有所幫助，C.J。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen & Company.

提摩西·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

The first question, Peter, is again around logic. I'm wondering sort of how the transition is going to look between 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer and I'm trying to compare it back to the transition between 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer. 16 nanometer wasn't really a real litho shrink so of course there was a lot of reuse from the litho side between 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer. So, I'm curious what you think the reuse will be for what gets ordered for 10 nanometer to get reused at 7 nanometer. Obviously I know that there is going to be some EUV tools used at 7 nanometer that are being used at 10 nanometer. But just sort of in general, what do you think the reuse will look like between 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer?

彼得，第一個問題又與邏輯有關。我想知道 10 奈米和 7 奈米之間的轉變會是什麼樣子，並嘗試將其與 20 奈米和 16 奈米之間的轉變進行比較。16 奈米實際上並不是真正的光刻縮小，因此在 20 奈米和 16 奈米之間，光刻方面當然有很多重複使用。所以，我很好奇，您認為在 10 奈米製程中訂購的零件在 7 奈米製程中可以重複使用的情況是怎樣的。顯然，我知道在 7 奈米製程中使用的一些 EUV 工具也會在 10 奈米製程中使用。但總體來說，您認為 10 奈米和 7 奈米之間的重複使用情況會是什麼樣的？

It's a good question. But what we're currently planning is like you pointed out that the 10 nanometer node is not a very large node, it will not entirely go away, and the expectation for the 7 nanometer node are actually quite strong. So, there's always going to be some level of reusage actually planned. We don't think that percentage of reuse is going to be anything significantly different than what we saw in the past. Having said that, reuse is not something that you can generically apply over the logic or the foundry customers. Some customers that are extremely successful at a certain node or are very successful at a certain node get also follow-on orders on that node, we've actually seen that also in the past, and they will have a very limited percentage of tools that they will apply for or go reuse to the next node.

這是個好問題。但我們目前的計劃就像您指出的那樣，10奈米節點並不是一個非常大的節點，它不會完全消失，而對7奈米節點的期望實際上相當強烈。因此，實際上總是會計劃進行一定程度的再利用。我們認為重複使用的百分比與過去看到的百分比不會有顯著差異。話雖如此，重複使用並不是可以普遍應用於邏輯或代工客戶的東西。一些在某個節點上極其成功或在某個節點上非常成功的客戶也會在該節點上獲得後續訂單，我們過去也確實看到過這種情況，他們只有非常有限的工具比例可以申請或在下一個節點上重複使用。

And others are less successful in a certain node and they do a lot of reuse for another node. So, it really depends on whether the installed capacity for the 10 nanometer node currently has enough customer base and you have to remember, it is not a lot. The 10 nanometer installed by the end of this year maximum [35,000, 40,000k]. So, that's not a lot. So, you have some big customers and you are full and then everybody moves to 7 nanometer, which will be different customers. So it's difficult to say very customer specific, very specific to their customer base, and what we are currently planning and also our longer-term planning is that we don't see as a major shift or a major impact of that reuse model going forward.

而其他節點在某個節點上不太成功，它們會在另一個節點上重複使用很多功能。因此，這實際上取決於 10 奈米節點的安裝容量目前是否有足夠的客戶群，你必須記住，這並不多。今年底安裝的10奈米最大[35,000,40,000k]。所以，這並不多。因此，你有一些大客戶，而且你已經滿負荷運轉，然後每個人都轉向 7 奈米，這將是不同的客戶。因此，很難說它非常針對客戶，非常針對他們的客戶群，而我們目前的計劃以及我們的長期計劃是，我們並不認為這種重用模型會在未來發生重大轉變或產生重大影響。

And then second question for Wolfgang. Wolfgang, now that obviously EUV is going to I think be inserted at least partially at 7 nanometer, that's clear. Can you again remind us of what the margin targets will be? So maybe you need to ship X number of tools to have EUV be 30% margin, you need to ship Y number of tools to have EUV be 40% gross margin. Can you give us those mileposts again?

然後第二個問題問沃夫岡。沃爾夫岡，現在顯然 EUV 至少會部分應用於 7 奈米，這是很清楚的。您能否再次提醒我們利潤目標是多少？因此，也許您需要運送 X 數量的工具才能使 EUV 獲得 30% 的利潤率，您需要運送 Y 數量的工具才能使 EUV 獲得 40% 的毛利率。您能再給我們提供一下這些里程碑嗎？

So in order to get to our 2020 target of 50% overall gross margin, we would have to arrive at 40% for EUV. Of course we are much lower than the net today. There are several elements that contribute, I think the biggest one is using our production facilities. We have built a factory that can do many more tools than we're doing this year or next year or even in 2018. So, that is the big thing. The second thing is of course the learning curve both at us and our suppliers so for instance, the number of hours it takes you to put one of these systems together and then the takedown costs at the suppliers. The third one is as you learn, you're also having less E&O, excess and obsolete, due to redesign.

因此，為了實現 2020 年 50% 的整體毛利率目標，我們的 EUV 毛利率必須達到 40%。當然我們比今天的淨值低很多。有幾個因素促成了這個結果，我認為最大的因素是使用我們的生產設施。我們已經建造了一家工廠，可以生產比今年、明年甚至 2018 年更多的工具。所以，這是一件大事。第二件事當然是我們和我們的供應商的學習曲線，例如，組裝這些系統之一需要花費多少小時，然後是供應商的拆卸成本。第三個是，隨著您不斷學習，由於重新設計，您的 E&O、多餘和過時的東西也會減少。

And also, and this is often getting overlooked, if you launch a product and you go from a 3300 to a 3350 and to a 3400, you often have to do rework in the field that you cannot necessarily always charge, but it goes into your gross margin and that will go away over the next one or two years. I think as an orientation we believe from a volume perspective, we should be in the neighborhood of 40 tools to be able to get to the 40% gross margin. And depending on the ramp of production for 7 nanometer or 5 nanometer respectively in 2019 and then associated DRAM volume, I think the result of that volume you could see in the 2019 timeframe so well in time for our 2020 objective.

而且，這一點經常被忽視，如果你推出一款產品，從 3300 升級到 3350，再升級到 3400，你經常需要在現場進行返工，雖然不一定能收取費用，但它會計入你的毛利率，而且這種情況會在未來一兩年內消失。我認為，從數量角度來看，我們應該有大約 40 種工具才能達到 40% 的毛利率。根據 2019 年 7 奈米或 5 奈米的產量增長以及相關的 DRAM 產量，我認為您可以在 2019 年的時間範圍內看到產量結果，以便及時實現我們的 2020 年目標。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

梅赫迪‧胡賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)，薩斯奎漢納 (Susquehanna)。

Of the 10 EUV systems you have in your backlog, can you help me with the mix between 3350 and 3400?

在您積壓的 10 個 EUV 系統中，您能幫我將 3350 和 3400 混合在一起嗎？

Let me think. I want to say there is only one 3350 in there.

讓我想想。我想說那裡只有一個 3350。

Three.

三。

It's three 3350, seven 3400.

有三台 3350，有七台 3400。

How does the ASP change as you go from mature generation to the next generation like from 3350 to 3400? Should we assume like that there is a 10%, 20% increase in ASP?

從成熟世代到下一代，例如從 3350 到 3400，ASP 如何改變？我們是否應該假設 ASP 會增加 10% 或 20%？

List price 3300 was somewhere between EUR60 million and EUR65 million, 3350 is mid EUR90s million, and then the 3400 is about EUR20 million higher than that.

標價 3300 介於 6000 萬歐元至 6500 萬歐元之間，3350 為 9000 萬歐元中段，而 3400 則比標價高出約 2000 萬歐元。

Okay. And then my final question, it's good to know that at 50 nanometer DRAM EUV is going to be inserted for two layer. Is there any update on the logic side 7 nanometer logic? I think in the past you have talked about a range of two to six or eight layers, it will be great if you could provide an update?

好的。然後我的最後一個問題是，很高興知道在 50 奈米 DRAM 中 EUV 將插入兩層。邏輯方面7奈米邏輯有什麼更新嗎？我認為您過去曾談到兩層到六層或八層的範圍，如果您能提供更新資訊那就太好了？

I think this is of course device specific, Mehdi, but it is definitely not two. I think we're looking at layer counts anywhere between six and nine.

我認為這當然是特定於設備的，Mehdi，但絕對不是兩個。我認為我們正在考慮 6 到 9 之間的層數。

Six and nine. But given the fact that there is a ton more DRAM wafer capacity, would it make sense that by 2020 DRAM actually would account for a larger mix of EUV demand than logic just because there is more wafer capacity?

六先令九先令。但考慮到 DRAM 晶圓產能大幅增加的事實，僅僅因為晶圓產能增加，就認為到 2020 年 DRAM 在 EUV 需求中所佔比例實際上會比邏輯更大，這合理嗎？

That's a good point. If you look at it, the wafer capacity is a lot bigger and going forward you could also argue whether let's say the mid-teens DRAM, the layer count will stay at two. Also could grow. But that's indeed true that it's a much bigger market so that means it's a very substantial part of the EUV business. Now how big it will be also depends on the aggression with which customers are going to add EUV layers and it also depends on the growth rate of the memory market.

這是一個很好的觀點。如果你看一下，你會發現晶圓的容量要大得多，而且展望未來，你還可以爭論一下，比如說十幾歲的 DRAM，層數是否會保持在 2。也可以成長。但確實這是一個更大的市場，這意味著它是 EUV 業務中非常重要的一部分。現在，它的規模也取決於客戶添加 EUV 層的積極性，也取決於記憶體市場的成長率。

Francois Meunier, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Francois Meunier。

So, I'd like to know a bit more details about the previous question actually because I think you said in the past that logic was 250,000 wafer per month probably at 7 nanometer. So I think given the layer of assumption, it's relatively easy to find the number of tools which are needed. I'm a bit struggling to do the same exercise for DRAM. So like let's say if the addressable market is 60 to 80 EUV tools for logic, how much would it be for DRAM? Is it like 25%, is it 50% of that market; is it more, is it less? Just like if you could give us at least a few numbers we can play with.

因此，我實際上想了解有關上一個問題的更多細節，因為我認為您過去說過，邏輯每月的產量可能是 250,000 片晶圓，工藝為 7 奈米。因此我認為，有了這一層假設，要找到所需的工具數量就相對容易了。我對 DRAM 做同樣的練習有點困難。那麼，假設可尋址市場是 60 到 80 個用於邏輯的 EUV 工具，那麼用於 DRAM 的 EUV 工具的數量是多少？它佔了該市場的 25% 還是 50%？是多還是少？就像如果你能給我們至少幾個我們可以玩的數字一樣。

I can give you any number to play with and you can have several simulations. But what I said earlier, I think it is important to understand that there will be two layers or will be more going forward. That is very important, but we don't have that information yet so that's why it's pretty difficult for us to make that particular assessment. And also the growth of the memory market and the DRAM market of course is definitely of impact. I think most important here is that I think by 2020 we would have a build capacity of maximum 60 units. I'm not saying that we're going to sell all those 60 units because like I said earlier, we don't have all the information yet to understand what our customers are planning.

我可以給你任意數字來玩，你可以進行幾次模擬。但正如我之前所說，我認為重要的是要理解未來將會有兩層或更多的層次。這非常重要，但我們還沒有掌握這些信息，因此我們很難做出具體的評估。當然，記憶體市場和 DRAM 市場的成長也肯定會產生影響。我認為最重要的是，到 2020 年，我們的建造能力將達到最高 60 個單位。我並不是說我們會賣掉所有這 60 台，因為就像我之前說的，我們還沒有掌握所有資訊來了解客戶的計畫。

But memory is going to be a significant part of our EUV business, that is clear. And like Wolfgang said, to be profitable in 2019 to 40% gross margin that we need 40 systems. Now when we look at 2019, look at the logic part, look at the memory market; I don't think that 40 systems is a big challenge or a big stretch when you look at our current assumptions of the growth of the memory market and of the logic market. But how it is divided between the two, that still remains to be seen. So, you have to give us a break on this and I can give you a couple of numbers so you can play with those numbers, but I think you can do that yourself also.

但很明顯，記憶體將成為我們 EUV 業務的重要組成部分。正如沃夫岡所說，為了在 2019 年實現 40% 的毛利率，我們需要 40 個系統。現在，當我們展望 2019 年，看看邏輯部分，看看記憶體市場；從我們目前對記憶體市場和邏輯市場成長的假設來看，我不認為 40 個系統是一個巨大的挑戰或一個巨大的挑戰。但兩者之間如何分配，仍有待觀察。所以，你必須讓我們休息一下，我可以給你幾個數字，這樣你就可以用這些數字來玩，但我認為你也可以自己做。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up. On your R&D budget, I was wondering if suddenly there's a scrutiny of the public market and maybe you were a private company and you could maybe increase your R&D budget more than it is today, on what would you spend it on and is there anything that would be tried to make EUV happen not necessarily quicker but in an even easier way for the customers?

好的。只是一個快速的跟進。關於您的研發預算，我想知道，如果突然對公共市場進行審查，也許您是一家私人公司，您可能會將研發預算增加到比現在更多的水平，您會將其花在哪些方面？是否會嘗試讓 EUV 以更快的速度實現，但對客戶來說更簡單？

I think whether we are a public company or a private company, we would spend the money wisely and that means that yes, we have an R&D budget today about EUR1.1 billion. If we think we in the interest of our customers and in creating value for ASML need to increase that to EUR1.2 billion or EUR1.3 billion, we would; but we are not doing that. So, I don't think there's a big difference between whether we're public or whether we are private. We're spending the money as wisely as we can. We've also said that when we look at the EUR10 billion target, our R&D could be about 13% so it's EUR1.3 billion. What will we spend that money on? I can give you some indication there.

我認為無論我們是上市公司還是私人公司，我們都會明智地花錢，這意味著，是的，我們今天的研發預算約為 11 億歐元。如果我們認為為了客戶的利益並為 ASML 創造價值，需要將這一數字增加到 12 億歐元或 13 億歐元，我們就會這樣做；但我們並沒有這麼做。所以，我認為，無論是上市公司還是私人企業，並沒有太大的差別。我們正在盡可能明智地花錢。我們也說過，當我們考慮 100 億歐元的目標時，我們的研發費用可能約為 13%，即 13 億歐元。我們將用這筆錢來做什麼？我可以給你一些提示。

There's the next generation EUV. We have a 0.33 NA EUV tool today, which is the 3350 and the 3400. We will go to then a higher NA, higher numerical aperture tool, in the next decade; probably seeing first shipment early next decade. We would start spending money on that because the 3300 or the 3350 is just the first of a series. As the NA improvement will drive down, the geometries will push the shrink. So, that's definitely something that we would engage in. And don't worry, our engineers when we look at EUV and we look at our Holistic Lithography focus, they will find ways to spend EUR1.3 billion. And if you would ask them, they will also find ways to spend EUR1.5 billion, but we want them to (inaudible).

這是下一代 EUV。我們今天有 0.33 NA EUV 工具，即 3350 和 3400。在未來十年，我們將採用更高 NA、更高數值孔徑的工具；可能在下個十年初就會看到第一批貨物。我們會開始為此花錢，因為 3300 或 3350 只是該系列中的第一個。隨著 NA 改進的降低，幾何形狀將推動縮小。所以，這絕對是我們會參與的事情。別擔心，當我們的工程師研究 EUV 和整體光刻技術時，他們會想辦法花費 13 億歐元。如果你問他們，他們也會想辦法花掉 15 億歐元，但我們希望他們（聽不清楚）。

Pierre Ferragu, Bernstein.

皮耶費拉古、伯恩斯坦。

So, I'm trying to wrap up the overall picture of this EUV trajectory for logic and when I'm thinking about how much uncertainty is left in what's going to happen in the next let's say three years. So I like to think of it in terms of timing and when I hear you, it feels like timing is fairly nailed down and volume production is going to be 2019. So, my first question would be am I right thinking that's the right timing; very unlikely things happen earlier, very unlikely things happen later? And then I would have the second question about the volume of insertion, six to nine layers as you said and in line with TSMC comments, feels like a fairly large volume insertion of EUV so maybe in the higher end of the range of what you've been talking maybe a year ago. And then my last question of course is the volume of production like the capacity that you're going to be ramped at for the 7 nanometer and 5 nanometer nodes. I think we talked in the past that capacity is declining from one node to the next one around 10%, but with a fairly wide range of possible outcome there. So, how much more visibility do you have on that metric? So the first one is timing, the second one is volume of insertion, and the third one is production capacity ramp at each node.

因此，我試圖從邏輯上總結 EUV 軌蹟的整體情況，並思考未來三年內會發生什麼，還剩下多少不確定性。所以我喜歡從時間的角度來考慮這個問題，當我聽到你這麼說的時候，感覺時間已經相當確定了，批量生產將在 2019 年進行。所以，我的第一個問題是，我是否正確地認為這是正確的時機？非常不可能的事情發生得更早，非常不可能的事情發生得更晚？然後我想問第二個問題，關於插入量，正如您所說，六到九層，並且與台積電的評論一致，感覺 EUV 的插入量相當大，所以可能處於您一年前談論的範圍的高端。當然，我的最後一個問題是生產量，例如 7 奈米和 5 奈米節點的產能。我想我們過去曾討論過，容量從一個節點到下一個節點下降了大約 10%，但可能出現的結果範圍相當廣泛。那麼，您對該指標的了解程度如何？因此，第一個是時間，第二個是插入量，第三個是每個節點的生產能力提升。

I think I'll leave the third question to Wolfgang. On timing, I think you're about right, 2019, 2020 volume introduction which means for us at least a year, 12 to 18 months earlier you need to start shipping. Don't forget also this is the first high volume ramp of a new lithography technology in high volume manufacturing so customers will take a bit more time to get the tools installed, qualify their process. It will just take us a bit more time. But from a customer perspective 2019, 2020 high volume usage, that's about the right timing. The volume of insertion, yes, the high end of the range six to nine layers, that could be. We have more insight now than we had one year ago. Customers have more insight now. Customers have also found out we suppose and that's basically on what we hear from them that trying to do 7 nanometer on the critical layers with multiple patterning strategies is a very costly and a very painful exercise. So we're just closer let's say to the insertion points and to the decision points, customers have done a lot more work. That's why we have a bit more clarity and it is indeed at somewhat of the higher end of that range that we talked about last year, but it is what it is. Wolfgang?

我想我將第三個問題留給沃夫岡。關於時間，我認為您說得對，2019 年、2020 年批量推出，這意味著我們至少需要提前一年、12 到 18 個月開始發貨。也請不要忘記，這是大規模生產中新光刻技術的首次大規模應用，因此客戶將需要更多時間來安裝工具並驗證其製程。我們只是需要多花一點時間而已。但從客戶的角度來看，2019 年、2020 年的使用量很高，這正是時候。插入量是的，範圍的高端可能是六到九層。與一年前相比，我們現在有了更多的了解。客戶現在有了更多的了解。客戶還發現，我們推測，這基本上是根據我們從他們那裡聽到的，試圖用多種圖案化策略在關鍵層上實現 7 奈米是一項非常昂貴且非常痛苦的工作。因此，我們更接近插入點和決策點，客戶已經做了更多的工作。這就是為什麼我們對它有了更多的了解，而且它確實處於我們去年談論的範圍的高端，但事實就是如此。沃爾夫岡？

On the volume assumptions, historically we have always counted on like 300,000 wafer starts per month. Certainly was still true for the 2080s, actually exceed a bit, and our assumptions haven't changed. We assume that over time the semiconductor growth rates will come down a little bit from what they have been in the last 10 years to potentially approach GDP at one point in time. That's why we have modeled a 10% reduction node over node. So 2016; 14 would be about 270; 10 including those 10 equivalent would be in the 220s and 230s; and then 7 and the 7 equivalent would be somewhere around 200. But don't forget that the litho intensity is going up for these nodes so that still enables us to have the revenue growth that we have forecasted. Those are our assumptions on the wafer start.

就產量假設而言，從歷史上看，我們一直指望每月生產 30 萬片晶圓。對於 2080 年代來說當然仍然如此，實際上甚至超越一點，而我們的假設並沒有改變。我們假設，隨著時間的推移，半導體的成長率將比過去 10 年略有下降，並有可能在某個時間點接近 GDP。這就是為什麼我們對節點進行 10% 減少建模的原因。所以2016； 14 大約是 270； 10（包括這 10 個）相當於 220 到 230 之間；然後是 7，而 7 的等價值大約是 200。但不要忘記，這些節點的光刻強度正在上升，因此我們仍然能夠實現預測的收入成長。這些都是我們對晶圓啟動的假設。

I'd like to add to that that last quarter we also made it clear, I at least hope, that you see especially in logic that you have layers of nodes that are now on top of each other. We are still shipping 28 nanometer capacity and there is a move of those let's say second tier logic makers to move to 14 nanometer and 16 nanometer. So, these are not nodes that have ended. There is a much longer tail life of those nodes, which makes it more difficult to also predict how big nodes are going to be because the lifetime of that node is much longer than we saw five, six, seven, eight years ago.

我想補充一點，上個季度我們也明確表示過，至少我希望，你們在邏輯上能夠看到，現在有多層節點相互疊加。我們仍在出貨 28 奈米產能，而那些二線邏輯製造商正在轉向 14 奈米和 16 奈米。所以，這些不是已經結束的節點。這些節點的尾部壽命要長得多，這使得預測節點的大小變得更加困難，因為該節點的壽命比我們五、六、七、八年前看到的要長得多。

Okay. And one very quick follow-up. So far in the ramp of the 10 nanometer node when you talk planning with your clients, you feel that your assumption of capacity of 230 for that node still is the right ballpark assumption?

好的。還有一個非常快速的後續行動。到目前為止，在 10 奈米節點的發展過程中，當您與客戶討論規劃時，您是否認為您對該節點 230 容量的假設仍然是正確的大致假設？

Yes.

是的。

Jagadish Iyer, Redstone.

賈加迪什·艾耶，雷石東。

First on the post HMI, how realistic will you be able to intercept the 7 nanometer with the radical inspection product or should we think beyond 7 nanometer with the HMI product? And then I have a follow-up.

首先，在 HMI 之後，您能夠透過徹底的檢測產品攔截 7 奈米嗎？或者我們應該考慮使用 HMI 產品超越 7 奈米？然後我有一個後續問題。

I think the 7 nanometer product if you listened carefully, 7/5 nanometer customers are discussing that's a 2020 timeframe in high volume production. I think that's what we're focusing on. This is 2016, there's still three, four years from now. So yes, we are focusing on catching that node.

我認為，如果你仔細聽的話，7/5 奈米客戶正在討論 7 奈米產品將在 2020 年實現大批量生產。我認為這就是我們關注的重點。現在是2016年，距離現在還有三、四年。是的，我們正專注於捕捉那個節點。

And we also said in the announcement of the acquisition that we peg that market at about EUR200 million by 2020. So that assumes that for these nodes, there would be a revenue opportunity there.

我們在收購公告中也表示，預計到 2020 年該市場的規模將達到約 2 億歐元。因此，我們假設這些節點存在獲利機會。

Okay. And then you had a big uptick in the foundry bookings. So, how would you characterize that between leading edge versus trailing edge and how should we think about your core immersion segment evolving over the next two to four quarters? Thank you.

好的。然後代工廠的訂單量就大幅增加了。那麼，您如何描述前沿與後緣之間的差異？我們該如何看待您的核心沉浸式體驗部分在未來兩到四個季度的發展？謝謝。

I think it's fair to assume that the majority of the bookings are for the leading nodes 10 nanometer and that's pretty clear. But to Peter's point just a minute ago, we do have the situation that nodes are stretching out. And if I can remind you about the first quarter of this year, I think it was 35% of our system revenue came from China and a good chunk of that was driven by lagging nodes that are still very good business for our customers. And in terms of forward looking, the exposures on new nodes will go up and just because we're doing more with EUV in the future doesn't mean that the DUV business is going away. We continue to invest, as you probably know, close to half of our R&D budget on non-EUV.

我認為可以合理地假設大多數預訂都是針對領先節點 10 奈米的，這一點非常清楚。但正如彼得剛才所說，我們確實存在著節點延伸的情況。如果我可以提醒您今年第一季的情況，我認為我們系統收入的 35% 來自中國，其中很大一部分是由滯後節點推動的，但這些節點對我們的客戶來說仍然是非常好的業務。從前瞻性的角度來看，新節點的曝光率將會增加，而且僅僅因為我們將來會在 EUV 上做更多的事情並不意味著 DUV 業務會消失。您可能知道，我們繼續將近一半的研發預算投資於非 EUV 技術。

So, we keep advancing it so that customers can get the cost down on these layers as well and as a consequence when you look at our EUR10 billion plan by 2020, the DUV business will not look much different than it does today. Somebody asked earlier about reuse, what you do see is that we help customers significantly in bringing the cost down and instead of unnecessarily shipping a scanner, we're also helping them to upgrade the scanners that they already have, which is capital efficient for them and very good business for us. So, that continues to be very, very good business for many years to come for us.

因此，我們不斷推進這項工作，以便客戶也能降低這些層面的成本，因此，當您看到我們到 2020 年的 100 億歐元計劃時，DUV 業務看起來與今天不會有太大不同。之前有人問到關於重複使用的問題，您會看到，我們幫助客戶顯著降低了成本，而且我們無需不必要地運送掃描儀，還可以幫助他們升級他們已有的掃描儀，這對他們來說是一種資本效率，對我們來說也是非常好的業務。因此，在未來的許多年裡，這對我們來說仍然是非常非常好的業務。

Gareth Jenkins, UBS.

瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。

Could I just ask a couple of questions on the HMI deal in particular? I wondered if you could talk about feedback from customers with regard to regulatory approval? And secondly, I wondered if you could talk about the market share expectations on the EUR2.3 billion TAM that you see incremental from doing this deal? And then I have one more follow-up. Thanks.

我可以具體問幾個有關 HMI 交易的問題嗎？我想知道您是否可以談談客戶對監管部門批准的回饋？其次，我想知道您是否可以談談您認為透過這筆交易可以增加 23 億歐元 TAM 的市佔率預期？然後我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。

I can do the regulatory and you want to do the market share assumption? So on the regulatory, we haven't gotten any negative feedback from customers. Quite the opposite, I think customers see the uniqueness of a combined solution in particular bringing the software aspects in there and that helping them to bring this from the R&D into the production environment and go much more to a controlled solution rather than just a monitoring or qualification solution. On the regulatory front, we have submitted our applications in Taiwan, Korea, and Singapore. I think that should go reasonably well. We also have a [SEC] filing in the US that's due to be filed before this month is over. We so far don't see any hurdles on that front.

我可以做監管，你想做市佔率假設嗎？因此在監管方面，我們還沒有收到任何來自客戶的負面回饋。恰恰相反，我認為客戶看到了組合解決方案的獨特之處，特別是將軟體方面引入其中，並幫助他們將其從研發帶入生產環境，並更多地轉向受控解決方案而不僅僅是監控或資格解決方案。在監管方面，我們已經向台灣、韓國和新加坡提交了申請。我認為一切應該會進展得相當順利。我們還需向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交一份文件，該文件將於本月底前提交。到目前為止，我們還沒有發現這方面有任何障礙。

On your market share assumptions, I think we basically show the entire market which includes the wafer monitoring control, also it's the high volume. All together we think it's about EUR2.3 billion. The market share assumptions that we have I think are not for public disclosure now. I think what is the most important is to realize that what we're trying to do is to create a product that does not exist today. We think that at sub 10 nanometer, the pattern fidelity control is going to be more important with the resolutions going down and that's why we need a different solution and that solution is in a sense new and is driven by the uniqueness of the holistic lithography capabilities of ASML. That is something that you will not find in any other place.

根據您的市場份額假設，我認為我們基本上展示了包括晶圓監控控制在內的整個市場，而且它的數量也很大。我們認為總計約 23 億歐元。我認為，我們的市佔率假設現在還不宜公開。我認為最重要的是認識到我們正在嘗試創造一種目前尚不存在的產品。我們認為，在 10 奈米以下，隨著分辨率的下降，圖案保真度控制將變得更加重要，這就是為什麼我們需要一個不同的解決方案，而解決方案在某種意義上是新的，並且由 ASML 整體光刻能力的獨特性驅動。這是你在其他任何地方都找不到的東西。

Now if you can combine that with the leading e-beam, that is a very good opportunity to actually help our customers manage their yield. But you have to realize also that we need a e-beam solution and we believe HMI is a leader and we can introduce it faster. But we could have also chosen to actually partner with another e-beam manufacturer. We could have chosen to acquire e-beam intellectual property and do it ourselves. That's all being part of our assessment of how do we bring this new solution to the market that is being driven by the uniqueness of ASML Holistic Lithography. And e-beam in itself is a highly competitive market and HMI is a great company and it just allows us to be faster, but it doesn't mean that that's the only way to bring the solution that we have in mind to the market.

現在，如果您可以將其與領先的電子束相結合，這將是一個非常好的機會，實際上可以幫助我們的客戶管理他們的產量。但您也必須意識到，我們需要電子束解決方案，我們相信 HMI 是領導者，我們可以更快地引入它。但我們也可以選擇與另一家電子束製造商合作。我們本來可以選擇收購電子束智慧財產權並自己做這件事。這些都是我們評估的一部分，即如何將這項新解決方案推向市場，而此解決方案是由 ASML 整體光刻技術的獨特性所驅動的。電子束本身是一個競爭激烈的市場，HMI 是一家很棒的公司，它讓我們能夠更快地發展，但這並不意味著這是將我們心中的解決方案推向市場的唯一途徑。

Could I just ask one follow-up on that, Peter? What's the timetable for combined products between your litho and their e-beam solution for this whole pattern integrity products and do you need to inject R&D into HMI to bring that to market? Thanks.

彼得，我可以就此再問一個問題嗎？對於整個圖案完整性產品，你們的光刻和電子束解決方案的組合產品的時間表是什麼？你們是否需要在 HMI 中投入研發以將其推向市場？謝謝。

Yes, the R&D will grow, that's clear. It will grow both at ASML side and at HMI side. On the other hand, there's also projected growth of the topline. So, I think it's too early to talk about the financial models, but yes, there will be additional R&D needed and I think that's going to be funded out of our projected business growth.

是的，研發將會成長，這是很明顯的。它在 ASML 和 HMI 兩方面都會成長。另一方面，預計營業收入也將成長。所以，我認為現在談論財務模型還為時過早，但確實需要額外的研發，我認為這將透過我們預期的業務成長來提供資金。

I think one addition probably on the timeline, that's not completely nailed down. But that's again where one of the benefits comes in on combining the two solutions because you can't wait all the way for multi-beam. If you use the software to guide the beam to areas of interest, you potentially get a solution faster to the market. That's one of the uniqueness of what we add to this combination.

我認為時間線上可能還有一項補充，但尚未完全確定。但這又是將兩種解決方案結合起來的好處之一，因為您不能一直等待多光束。如果您使用軟體將光束引導至感興趣的區域，您就有可能更快地獲得推向市場的解決方案。這是我們添加到該組合中的獨特之處之一。

Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank.

羅伯特‧桑德斯，德意志銀行。

First question would just be on Intel specifically. Do you agree that 7 nanometer design rules are fairly well locked down now therefore your EUV opportunity is more limited in terms of the number of critical layers? I'm talking about sort of three to six rather than the six to nine that you talked about generally before. And then second question would just be around the possibility to sign volume purchase agreements from TSMC and Samsung in the same way that you have with Intel. It would seem to me a very important thing to do in order to build confidence in the supply chain to expand capacity. Thanks a lot.

第一個問題具體是關於英特爾的。您是否同意 7 奈米設計規則現在已經相當確定，因此就關鍵層的數量而言，您的 EUV 機會更加有限？我說的是三到六，而不是你之前一般談論的六到九。第二個問題是，是否有可能像與英特爾簽署批量採購協議一樣，與台積電和三星簽署批量採購協議。在我看來，為了建立對供應鏈的信心以擴大產能，這是一件非常重要的事。多謝。

On your last comment, thanks for your business advice and we will definitely do that. The PPAs are going to be particularly important not only for the supply chain, but also to guide the EUV business with the two names that you just mentioned. Now I'm not going to be specific on any customer and I made this comment of six to nine because we are in contact with customers and somebody else asked the question earlier on in the call, you seem to be at the higher end of your range as compared to one year ago. We just know more and I think the customers also know more. And it's interesting to understand that you think it's three to six. So, I would invite you to contact our Investor Relations department and discuss with them why you think it's three to six while we based on our customer interactions think it's six to nine.

關於您的最後一條評論，感謝您的商業建議，我們一定會這樣做。PPA 不僅對供應鏈特別重要，而且對於指導您剛才提到的兩個名字的 EUV 業務也特別重要。現在我不會針對任何客戶進行具體說明，我之所以做出 6 到 9 這一評論，是因為我們正在與客戶聯繫，而且在通話中早些時候其他人也問過這個問題，與一年前相比，您的價格似乎處於較高水平。我們知道的更多，我認為客戶也知道的更多。有趣的是，您認為這個數字是三到六。因此，我邀請您聯繫我們的投資者關係部門，並與他們討論為什麼您認為是三到六，而我們根據與客戶的互動認為是六到九。

That was from IR this morning.

這是今天早上從 IR 收到的。

Three to six? I look at IR here and they look with amazement.

三到六？我在這裡看著紅外線，他們看起來很驚訝。

Okay. I'll follow up offline. Thanks.

好的。我會離線跟進。謝謝。

Operator, let me jump in here. I think we have time for just one last call. And if anybody was trying to get into call and couldn't, I would offer IR's time this afternoon or in the coming few days to answer any questions you might have. And with that, Arnan, can we have the last caller, please?

接線員，讓我插話一下。我想我們還有時間進行最後一次通話。如果有人想接聽電話但無法接聽，我會在今天下午或未來幾天利用 IR 的時間來解答您可能遇到的任何問題。那麼，Arnan，我們可以請最後一位來電者發言嗎？

Andrew Gardiner, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。

We spent quite a bit of time talking through what's happening on the foundry side and particularly with 7 nanometer growing into next year. I'm just wondering if you could help us with a bit more detail on memory as well. Clearly it's been a slightly tougher year in terms of revenue from that customer group particularly on the DRAM side and it looks like we're going to be down somewhere in sort of the mid-20% range in 2016. But given what you've described about transitions and what you know about happening with 3D NAND and sort of filling some of these facilities, why wouldn't we see memory spending come back up to some of the levels that we'd seen in prior years after this more transition year?

我們花了相當多的時間討論代工方面的情況，特別是明年 7 奈米的發展。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們更詳細地了解記憶。顯然，從該客戶群的收入來看，今年是稍微艱難的一年，特別是在 DRAM 方面，看起來 2016 年的收入將下降 20% 左右。但是，考慮到您所描述的過渡情況以及您對 3D NAND 的發展情況和一些設施的填充情況的了解，為什麼在經過這一更加過渡的年份後，我們不會看到內存支出回到前幾年的水平呢？

That's a good question and I think there is no reason why we shouldn't. You just mentioned a couple of those drivers. 3D NAND is particularly strong. There will be new 3D NAND constructions coming online next year, they need tools. They are Greenfield fabs, they need a lot more litho. So, that will drive the business definitely. And as with respect to DRAM, you're correct. You could argue that we're in a bit of a slow period. And what we mentioned on the EUV insertion in DRAM is clearly again driven by the necessary technology transitions to reduce cost. Everything that we're currently shipping into DRAM is with those customers really focused on their next node. So, it's technology transitions that are driving the DRAM demand currently. 3D NAND we're expecting as you said for 2017 definitely an increase because of the new construction sites that are coming onstream. And DRAM, yes, it's been a slow period. I would be with you if you would say there's an opportunity next year for the memory space, I would agree with you.

這是個好問題，我認為我們沒有理由不這麼做。您剛才提到了其中幾個驅動因素。3D NAND 尤其強大。明年將會有新的 3D NAND 結構上線，它們需要工具。它們是新建工廠，需要更多的光刻技術。所以，這肯定會推動業務發展。關於 DRAM，您說得對。您可能會說我們正處於一個緩慢的時期。我們提到的在 DRAM 中引入 EUV 顯然再次受到降低成本所需的技術轉型的推動。我們目前運送到 DRAM 的所有產品都是為那些真正專注於下一個節點的客戶而準備的。因此，目前推動 DRAM 需求的是技術轉型。正如您所說，我們預計 2017 年 3D NAND 肯定會成長，因為新建築工地即將投入使用。是的，對於 DRAM 來說，這是一個緩慢的時期。如果您認為明年記憶空間還有機會，我會同意您的觀點。

On behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank those that joined us today for taking the time to do so. And operator, if you could formally conclude the call, we'd appreciate it. Thanks.

我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝今天抽出時間參加會議的各位。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2016 second quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2016 年第二季財務績效電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。