艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML third-quarter results conference call October 14, 2015. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand over the conference to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2015年10月14日ASML第三季業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。ASML 介紹結束後，將有機會提問。（操作員指示）現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Aaron. Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, vice president of investor relations at ASML. Joining me today from our headquarters here in Veldhoven, the Netherlands is ASML's CEO Peter Wennink and CFO Wolfgang Nickl. To remind you, the subject of today's call is ASML's third-quarter 2015 results. This call is being broadcast live over the Internet at ASML.com and a replay of the call will be available on our website for approximately 90 days. Before we begin,

謝謝你，亞倫。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。這是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天，ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink 和財務長 Wolfgang Nickl 與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬的總部前來。提醒您，今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2015 年第三季的業績。此次電話會議將在 ASML.com 網站上進行現場直播，會議重播將在我們的網站上提供約 90 天。在我們開始之前，

I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties and for a discussions of these risk factors I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at ASML.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as part of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性，在討論這些風險因素時，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的網站 ASML.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告中以及美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中找到。

The length of the call will be 60 minutes and now I would like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

通話時間為 60 分鐘，現在我想將通話交給 Peter Wennink 進行簡短介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2015 results conference call. Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the quarter and provide also our view of the coming quarters.

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝大家參加我們 2015 年第三季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對本季進行概述和評論，並提供我們對未來幾季的看法。

Wolfgang will start with a review of the third-quarter financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook. Then I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current general business environment and our future business outlook. Wolfgang?

沃夫岡將首先回顧第三季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論。然後，我將對當前的整體商業環境和我們未來的業務前景進行進一步的評論，以完成介紹。沃爾夫岡？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. For Q3, our net sales came in at EUR1.55 billion. This includes system sales of EUR975 million, of which memory represented 56% and logic represented 44%. Service and field option sales came in strong at EUR574 million. This part of our business's growth continues, driven by strong demand for holistic lithography options, high-value upgrades, and a growing installed base.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。第三季度，我們的淨銷售額達到 15.5 億歐元。其中包括 9.75 億歐元的系統銷售額，其中記憶體佔 56%，邏輯佔 44%。服務和現場選項銷售額強勁成長，達到 5.74 億歐元。在對整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的強勁需求的推動下，我們這部分業務的成長仍在繼續。

Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 45.4%, slightly above our guidance. R&D expenses came in at EUR267 million and SG&A expenses came in at EUR86 million, both slightly below our guidance, positively affected by slower hiring, more favorable than planned exchange rates, and some one-time effects.

本季我們的毛利率為 45.4%，略高於我們的預期。研發費用為 2.67 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 0.86 億歐元，均略低於我們的預期，受到招聘放緩、匯率比計劃更有利以及一些一次性影響的積極影響。

Turning to the balance sheet, quarter over quarter cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew to EUR2.68 billion from EUR2.52 billion. During the quarter, we repurchased shares for EUR142 million, bringing the total for repurchased shares to EUR426 million year-to-date. Regarding the order book, Q3 bookings came in at EUR0.9 billion, slightly below our Q2 non-EUV bookings. Strength in memory bookings continued to be notable. We finished the quarter with a strong overall backlog of approximately EUR2.9 billion.

從資產負債表來看，季度現金、現金等價物和短期投資從 25.2 億歐元成長至 26.8 億歐元。本季度，我們回購了價值 1.42 億歐元的股票，使年初至今的回購總額達到 4.26 億歐元。就訂單而言，第三季的訂單金額為 9 億歐元，略低於第二季非 EUV 訂單金額。記憶預訂的強勁勢頭持續顯著。本季結束時，我們的總積壓訂單量約為 29 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the final quarter of 2015. We ended Q4 with a strong and nicely balanced system backlog. With continued strong service and field option sales in the quarter, we expect Q4 revenue to be approximately EUR1.4 billion. Based on expected customer and product mix, we expect gross margin for Q4 at around 45%.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2015 年最後一個季度的期望和指導。我們以強勁且均衡的系統積壓結束了第四季。由於本季服務和現場選項銷售持續強勁，我們預計第四季度營收約為 14 億歐元。根據預期的客戶和產品組合，我們預計第四季度的毛利率約為 45%。

R&D expenses for the fourth quarter will be about EUR270 million and SG&A is expected to come in at about EUR90 million. Our annualized tax rate is expected to come in at approximately 11%. Q4 is affected by what appears to be a more cautious foundry segment. This is resulting in more limited current foundry node capacity additions, leaving our Q4 revenue guidance below Q3 and removing the potential Q4 upside in this sector we discussed last quarter. However, Q4 foundry equipment shipments will support early next-node volume ramps. In addition, given ongoing memory bookings strength, we expect that sales to the memory sector will remain healthy in Q4, although slightly below last quarter sales levels.

第四季的研發費用約為 2.7 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 9,000 萬歐元。我們的年稅率預計約為11%。第四季受到了代工領域更為謹慎的影響。這導致當前代工節點產能增加更加有限，導致我們第四季度的收入預期低於第三季度，並消除了我們上個季度討論過的該領域在第四季度的潛在上行空間。不過，第四季代工設備出貨量將支持早期的下一個節點產量成長。此外，鑑於持續的記憶體預訂強勁，我們預計第四季度記憶體行業的銷售將保持健康，儘管略低於上一季的銷售水平。

Given these assumptions for the rest of 2015, we can clearly state that this will be a record sales year for ASML. 2015 revenue will have been enabled by another strong memory year, driven by capacity additions in two new DRAM fabs and by some additional capacity needs in the one existing 3-D NAND fab. The foundry sector will have increased versus 2014 as volume ramps continue at current and prior nodes. We will also have initial but limited shipments for 10 nanometer. Lastly, 2015 will mark a record sales level in our service and field options business.

根據對 2015 年剩餘時間的這些假設，我們可以明確地說，這將是 ASML 創紀錄的銷售年。2015 年的營收將得益於又一個強勁的內存年，這得益於兩個新的 DRAM 晶圓廠的產能增加以及一個現有 3-D NAND 晶圓廠的一些額外產能需求。隨著目前和先前節點產量的持續成長，代工產業將比 2014 年有所成長。我們也將初始但有限地出貨 10 奈米產品。最後，2015年我們的服務和現場選項業務的銷售水準將創下新高。

Peter will talk more about you the shortly but I would like to make a few points regarding 2015 EUV shipments. As most listeners are aware, we continue to show great progress in improving on key EUV performance metrics related to productivity and availability with unchanged targets of improving both further throughout this year and next. Without a doubt, EUV continues to progress upwards along the new technology adoption curve.

Peter 很快會多談論您，但我想就 2015 年 EUV 出貨量談幾點看法。正如大多數聽眾所知，我們在改進與生產力和可用性相關的關鍵 EUV 性能指標方面繼續取得了巨大進展，並且今年和明年進一步改進的目標保持不變。毫無疑問，EUV 將繼續沿著新技術採用曲線向上發展。

We are delighted to have a total of eight purchase orders for our NXE:3350 and NXE:3400 production systems plus the three remaining EUV development tool orders for NXE:3300 systems, of which two are going to be upgraded. These 11 tools will go to five different customers. However, you now see that our shipment expectations for 2015 has changed to four systems, down from our prior expectation of seven systems for the year. Changes to shipment schedules are largely due to our customers' uncertainty on timing of new nodes as well as their near-term priority setting.

我們很高興總共獲得了 8 份針對 NXE:3350 和 NXE:3400 生產系統的採購訂單，以及剩餘的 3 份針對 NXE:3300 系統的 EUV 開發工具訂單，其中 2 份將進行升級。這 11 種工具將提供給五個不同的客戶。然而，您現在看到，我們對 2015 年的出貨量預期已變為四個系統，低於我們先前預期的七個系統。發貨時間表的變化主要是由於我們的客戶對新節點的時間以及他們的近期優先順序設定不確定。

As a reminder, all top manufacturers have had EUV development tools in-house and in use for some time. Also, two logic manufacturing leaders have now publicly committed to production insertion of EUV. We expect EUV revenue for 2015 to be limited to the one NXE:3300 that we recognize during Q2. For the time being, revenue recognition for EUV remains difficult to forecast since it depends, amongst other criteria, on the achievement of performance milestones and differs from customer to customer. Once the performance of EUV technology has matured, we expect to recognize EUV revenue on system shipment as we do it in our EUV business.

提醒一下，所有頂級製造商都已在內部擁有 EUV 開發工具並使用了一段時間。此外，兩家邏輯製造業的領導者現已公開承諾在生產中引入 EUV。我們預計 2015 年 EUV 營收將僅限於我們在第二季確認的 NXE:3300。目前，EUV 的收入確認仍然難以預測，因為它取決於績效里程碑的實現等標準，並且因客戶而異。一旦 EUV 技術的性能成熟，我們預計在系統出貨時確認 EUV 收入，就像我們在 EUV 業務中所做的那樣。

As we announced on our last call, we will share our expectations regarding revenue recognition as we ship systems. For the NXE:3350 that is being shipped right now, we expect to recognize approximately EUR60 million of system revenue in the middle of 2016, with the remaining balance deferred to 2017. Now with that I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

正如我們在上次電話會議上宣布的那樣，我們將在系統發貨時分享我們對收入確認的期望。對於目前正在出貨的 NXE:3350，我們預計將在 2016 年中期確認約 6,000 萬歐元的系統收入，剩餘部分將延後至 2017 年。現在我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, the expectations for the second half of this year have been adjusted due to caution amongst our logic customers as it relates to current 28 nanometer and 16, 14 nanometer node ramps. However, with these adjusted numbers we will still see a record revenue year in 2015.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如 Wolfgang 所強調的，由於我們的邏輯客戶對當前 28 奈米和 16、14 奈米節點升級持謹慎態度，因此對今年下半年的預期進行了調整。然而，即使根據這些調整後的數字，我們仍然會看到 2015 年創下收入紀錄。

While it is too early to say anything quantitatively about 2016, we do see trends and developments that are worthwhile mentioning. In memory, our customers are currently indicating to us that their system demand will continue at healthy levels throughout the first half of 2016, albeit somewhat below our high Q3 sales levels. We expect, as Wolfgang mentioned, that the two new DRAM fabs will continue to install capacity next year.

雖然現在對 2016 年做出任何量化的評價還為時過早，但我們確實看到了值得一提的趨勢和發展。記憶中，我們的客戶目前向我們表示，他們的系統需求將在 2016 年上半年保持健康水平，儘管略低於我們第三季的高銷售水平。正如 Wolfgang 所提到的，我們預計這兩座新的 DRAM 晶圓廠明年將繼續增加產能。

Meanwhile, in NAND, we expect to limited lithography tool shipments to 3D NAND in 2016. The only existing volume 3D NAND stack will likely be full by the end of this year and the two new fabs will likely take limited equipment given that 3D NAND is still in its early stages of product introduction and the new fabs are not fully online. Given this memory landscape, we estimate that are sales to memory customers could be down year-over-year. By how much will depend largely on end demand and the aggressiveness with which customers will feel the effects.

同時，在NAND領域，我們預計2016年面向3D NAND的光刻工具出貨量將受到限制。現存的唯一批量 3D NAND 堆疊很可能在今年年底前達到滿載狀態，而鑑於 3D NAND 仍處於產品推出的早期階段，且新晶圓廠尚未完全上線，兩家新晶圓廠可能只會採用有限的設備。鑑於這種記憶體形勢，我們估計對記憶體客戶的銷售額可能會比去年同期下降。影響程度很大程度取決於最終需求以及消費者感受到影響的程度。

As mentioned earlier, in finishing out this year, logic customers have clearly taken a more cautious stance on capacity spend for 28 and 16 and 14 nanometer. However, the near-term completion of two new foundry fabs are designed to support the next advanced 10 nanometer FinFET ramp. The most recent customer indications are that this technology introduction is progressing well. This node should provide high value given it significant shrink versus the 20/16/14 nanometer node, hence their continued and clear commitment to ramp 10 nanometer starting in the second quarter of 2016.

如前所述，今年年底，邏輯客戶顯然對 28、16 和 14 奈米的產能支出採取了更謹慎的立場。然而，近期竣工的兩座新代工廠旨在支援下一代先進的 10 奈米 FinFET 技術。最近的客戶跡象顯示這項技術引進進展順利。由於與 20/16/14 奈米節點相比，該節點尺寸顯著縮小，因此應具有很高的價值，因此他們繼續明確承諾從 2016 年第二季度開始推進 10 奈米製程。

The speed and ultimate spend levels for logic in 2016 will depend on the rate at which our customers will be able to execute their ramp. And furthermore, field options and services will carry their strength into 2016 and will continue to show growth.

2016 年邏輯的速度和最終支出水準將取決於我們的客戶實現其成長的速度。此外，現場選項和服務將延續其強勁勢頭，並將繼續呈現成長態勢。

On the ASML products side, I would like to highlight the fact that we are launching two new scanners, one under our DPP program and one under our EUV program. This is enabled by an almost equal split in R&D spend on our DPP platform, which is vital in supporting the existing industry needs, and our EUV platform supporting the industry's future leading edge lithography needs. In addition, we continue to enhance our holistic lithography product offering, now also moving significantly into the EUV area.

在 ASML 產品方面，我想強調的是，我們正在推出兩款新的掃描儀，一款屬於我們的 DPP 計劃，一款屬於我們的 EUV 計劃。這是因為我們對 DPP 平台的研發支出幾乎均等分配，這對於支援現有的產業需求至關重要，而我們的 EUV 平台則支援產業未來前沿的光刻需求。此外，我們繼續增強我們的整體光刻產品供應，現在也大力進軍 EUV 領域。

Firstly, with respect to our DPP platform, we have now shipped our first NXT:1980 immersion product, which has demonstrated 40% improved focus uniformity, 30% improved overall accuracy versus our prior offering, along with the world's first 275 wafer per hour immersion capability. This world-leading capability will help our customers address the increasing and overwhelming cost and complexity of immersion multiple patterning and amortizing process control requirements that come with continuing logic and DRAM node shrinks.

首先，就我們的 DPP 平台而言，我們現在已經交付了第一款 NXT:1980 浸沒式產品，與我們之前的產品相比，該產品的焦點均勻性提高了 40%，整體精度提高了 30%，同時還擁有世界上第一個每小時 275 個晶圓的浸沒式能力。這項世界領先的能力將幫助我們的客戶解決隨著邏輯和 DRAM 節點不斷縮小而產生的浸沒式多重圖案化和攤銷製程控制要求日益增加且巨大的成本和複雜性。

Regarding our holistic lithography products, leading-edge customers are using powerful suite of immersion process, window enhancement and process control solutions to optimize yield at a 1 nanometer or the 1x nanometer production nodes. Holistic lithography products are now also extending into the EUV processes, with customers evaluating our EUV source mask optimization software for development of 7 and 5 nanometer technologies.

關於我們的整體光刻產品，領先的客戶正在使用強大的浸沒製程、視窗增強和製程控制解決方案來優化 1 奈米或 1x 奈米生產節點的產量。整體光刻產品現在也擴展到 EUV 工藝，客戶正在評估我們的 EUV 源掩模優化軟體，以用於 7 奈米和 5 奈米技術的開發。

And finally EUV. As most of you are aware, our 2015 focus has been on improving EUV stability, availability, and productivity, the key metrics of performance that now drive new lithography technology adoption. In several recent public presentations, our customers have recognized our EUV progress in these areas. On the raw productivity side, we have system configuration that has demonstrated more than 1000 wafers exposed in a 24-hour period.

最後是 EUV。大家可能都知道，2015 年我們的工作重點是提高 EUV 的穩定性、可用性和生產力，這些都是目前推動新微影技術採用的關鍵效能指標。在最近的幾次公開演示中，我們的客戶認可了我們在這些領域的 EUV 進展。在原始生產力方面，我們的系統配置已證明在 24 小時內可曝光超過 1000 個晶圓。

In a full-week customer-run manufacturing readiness test at the production conditions, we've seen 15,000 wafers exposed, with comparable results achieved using the same power configuration at multiple customers. Several customers have achieved four-week average system availabilities of greater than 70%. However, the overall worldwide average is going to be still lower, indicating that performance consistency needs to be further improved.

在生產條件下進行的為期一周的客戶運行製造準備測試中，我們看到了 15,000 個晶圓的暴露情況，並且使用相同的功率配置在多個客戶處獲得了可比的結果。一些客戶的四周平均係統可用性已達到 70% 以上。但全球整體平均水平仍將較低，這表明績效一致性需要進一步提高。

Now, Wolfgang discussed the encouraging state of our EUV orders. Key in our orders are two leading logic manufacturers that are now publicly stating the need for EUV at 7 nanometer. The speed at which of these and other customers order and adopt EUV is influenced by multiple factors. That is in any case dependent on the timing of the initial production ramp for these next advanced nodes. In that context, some customers have indicated that with the current challenges, multiple patterning schemes which drive significantly increased complexity, the timelines for current advanced nodes -- for instance 10 and 14 nanometer logic -- have been prolonged. This is forcing them to put priority on the integration efforts on these current nodes.

現在，Wolfgang 討論了我們的 EUV 訂單令人鼓舞的狀況。我們訂單的關鍵是兩家領先的邏輯製造商現在公開表示需要 7 奈米 EUV。這些客戶和其他客戶訂購和採用 EUV 的速度受到多種因素的影響。無論如何，這取決於這些下一個先進節點的初始生產提升的時間。在此背景下，一些客戶表示，面對當前的挑戰，多種圖案化方案顯著增加了複雜性，當前先進節點（例如 10 和 14 奈米邏輯）的時間表已經延長。這迫使他們優先考慮這些當前節點的整合工作。

These combined factors have therefore directly affected EUV tool delivery requirements in 2015, pushing out some of those deliveries to 2016. However, as mentioned before, the need for EUV for the 7 nanometer node remains unabated.

這些綜合因素直接影響了 2015 年 EUV 工具的交付需求，將部分交付推遲至 2016 年。不過，如前所述，7奈米節點對EUV的需求仍有增無減。

We do not believe that the decisions or timing of EUV shipments will affect the Company's stated target of reaching EUR10 billion of sales by 2020 since, as most of you know, we considered a three-year node cadence when preparing the opportunity analysis that we shared with you last year. And finally, as our customers are collectively saying and consistent with our previous suggestion, EUV remains a question of when, not if.

我們不認為 EUV 出貨量的決策或時間會影響公司在 2020 年實現 100 億歐元銷售額的既定目標，因為正如大多數人所知，我們在準備去年與大家分享的機會分析時考慮了三年的節點節奏。最後，正如我們的客戶集體所說的並且與我們先前的建議一致，EUV 仍然是時間問題，而不是是否會出現的問題。

Now with that, we would be happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thanks, Peter and Wolfgang. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session but beforehand I'd ask you to kindly limit, as I always do, to one question and one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now, Aaron, could we have your instructions and then the first caller, please?

謝謝，彼得和沃爾夫岡。女士們，先生們，接線員將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程，但在此之前，我請您像往常一樣，將提問限制在一個問題上，並在必要時進行一次簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在，Aaron，我們可以聽聽您的指示，然後是第一個來電者嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Sandeep Deshpande.

（操作員指示）Sandeep Deshpande。

Yes, hi. Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan Cazenove. Hi, Peter. I have a question on -- clearly your customers are indicating some level of caution in terms of placing orders at the moment for fourth quarter as well as potentially in the first half of next year. Do you have associated with this likely software revenue trend into next year, whether -- you are not guiding to 2016 but you probably have seen -- had some views on what revenues in 2016 are going to be -- do you have any views on how much -- how your OpEx will trend into 2016, and is there any flexibility in OpEx in the event that there is a decline in revenue next year?

是的，你好。摩根大通卡贊諾夫的 Sandeep Deshpande。你好，彼得。我有一個問題——顯然，您的客戶在目前下第四季以及明年上半年的訂單時表現出一定程度的謹慎。您是否將這種可能的軟體收入趨勢與明年聯繫起來，您是否 - - 您沒有指導 2016 年，但您可能已經看到 - - 對 2016 年的收入有一些看法 - - 您對 2016 年的營運支出趨勢有何看法？如果明年收入下降，營運支出是否有任何彈性？

Yes, I think the flexibility on OpEx -- Wolfgang, you can take that -- but generally, I think you're staying cautious planning orders. I think it's particularly true for foundries, as I said in the introductory call, which I think -- when you look at foundry, it's very clear in the discussion with our logic customers -- it's not only foundry, but our logic customers, we see the 10 nanometer ramp as being very real.

是的，我認為營運支出具有靈活性——沃爾夫岡，你可以接受這一點——但總的來說，我認為你會保持謹慎的計劃訂單。我認為對於代工廠來說尤其如此，正如我在介紹電話中所說的那樣，我認為 - 當你看代工廠時，在與我們的邏輯客戶的討論中非常清楚 - 不僅是代工廠，而且我們的邏輯客戶，我們認為 10 奈米的上升是非常現實的。

I know there have been questions with many people, how real is it, but in the discussions we are having with customers and the progress that they are making which they have shared with us, we believe it's very real but it will not start before Q2, and I think before -- so before things turn up in Q2, I think for logic, things are likely going to be a bit lower than a bit higher, but it will definitely start going up in Q2. On the flexibility of our OpEx, Wolfgang?

我知道很多人都有疑問，這有多真實，但在我們與客戶的討論以及他們與我們分享的進展中，我們相信這是非常真實的，但它不會在第二季度之前開始，我認為在此之前 - 所以在第二季度情況好轉之前，我認為從邏輯上講，情況可能會略低一些，而不是略高一些，但它肯定會在第二季度開始上升。關於我們的營運支出的靈活性，沃夫岡？

Yes, hi, Sandeep. We are right now running on R&D just shy of EUR270 million per quarter and just shy of EUR90 million per quarter on SG&A, and our intent is to keep it around these levels for next year, and as we have stated before, we do have some level of flexibility in all of our OpEx. We're not looking at any major downturn that we are right now looking at exercising these options, so you should model in your models about flattish OpEx for next year.

是的，你好，Sandeep。目前，我們每季的研發費用接近 2.7 億歐元，每季的銷售、一般及行政費用接近 9,000 萬歐元，我們的目標是在明年保持這些水平，正如我們之前所說，我們的所有營運支出都具有一定程度的靈活性。我們目前沒有看到任何重大的衰退，我們正在考慮行使這些選擇，因此您應該在模型中模擬明年平穩的營運支出。

Yes, and in terms of the flexibility, we have about a 20% workforce flexibility, which is labor contracts that are not on the payroll which is basically outsourced.

是的，就靈活性而言，我們的勞動力靈活性約為 20%，即不在工資單上的勞動合同，基本上是外包的。

And just a follow-up on EUV, Peter, in terms of -- there have been multiple milestones reached on EUV, but most of these have been with top-tier customers. Is there any sign of next year of customers coming into the program and showing an interest in EUV?

Peter，關於 EUV 的後續問題，EUV 已經達到了多個里程碑，但其中大多數都與頂級客戶有關。有沒有跡象表明明年會有客戶加入該計劃並對 EUV 表現出興趣？

Yes, I think we have discussions with all our major customers which is about seven. They were all talking very in-depth every time that we meet them. We have the logic part of our meeting is indeed about EUV. So it's not only the top three logic innovators, definitely also very serious discussions on EUV introduction for our memory customers.

是的，我想我們已經與所有主要客戶（大約七個）進行了討論。每次我們見到他們時，他們都會進行非常深入的對話。我們會議的邏輯部分確實是關於 EUV 的。因此，這不僅是三大邏輯創新者之間的討論，而且肯定也針對我們的記憶體客戶引入 EUV 進行了非常認真的討論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Korschelt.

科舍爾特先生。

Yes, gents. Thank you for taking the question. It's Merrill Lynch. The first one was just on EUV adoption and memory. You may have mentioned some of the smaller customers, but I think there was an article yesterday or a couple days ago that on the DRAM side, EUV adoption could be on the roadmap for 15 and 10 nanometers. So I'm just wondering do you have any more color and if that were the case, in which sort of timeframe could you start to look at orders from those customers?

是的，先生們。感謝您回答這個問題。是美林證券。第一個只是關於 EUV 的採用和內存。您可能提到了一些較小的客戶，但我認為昨天或幾天前有一篇文章提到，在 DRAM 方面，EUV 的採用可能在 15 奈米和 10 奈米的路線圖上。所以我只是想知道您是否還有更多信息，如果有的話，您可以在什麼時間範圍內開始查看這些客戶的訂單？

The second question was, just on the logic side, I think Intel yesterday indicated that will probably spend more CapEx next year. It also seems that TSMC and Samsung, so two foundries ramping 10 nanometers. So you basically have the entire logic camp starting that 10 nanometer ramp ,which I don't think has ever really happened in history so I'm just wondering, shouldn't that imply a pretty material stepback in your total revenues from the second quarter onwards? Thank you.

第二個問題是，僅在邏輯方面，我認為英特爾昨天表示明年可能會花費更多的資本支出。看起來，台積電和三星這兩家代工廠也正在推進 10 奈米製程。所以基本上整個邏輯陣營都開始向 10 納米邁進，我認為這在歷史上從未真正發生過，所以我只是想知道，這是否意味著從第二季度開始你們的總收入將出現相當大的實質性倒退？謝謝。

Two questions, first on the EUV introduction in memory, in DRAM, you're talking about 16 and 10. Well, we tend to talk about I'd say around 16 nanometers, so let's start with that. That is, for us, scheduled -- when we look at the roadmaps, 2018, early 2019, so that means as the year shipment before that means that 2017 -- end of 2017 at the latest shipment -- at the latest. So that would mean that we need to conclude orders into the course of next year.

兩個問題，首先是關於 EUV 在記憶體中的引入，在 DRAM 中，您說的是 16 和 10。好吧，我們傾向於談論大約 16 奈米，所以讓我們從這個開始。對我們來說，當我們查看路線圖時，這意味著計劃在 2018 年、2019 年初，也就是前一年發貨，也就是 2017 年——最晚在 2017 年底發貨——最遲。這意味著我們需要在明年完成訂單。

On the 10 nanometer ramp for logic, very clear that, yes, you're absolutely right. We see all major logic makers bringing 10 nanometer forward. There is a difference as we see in terms of timing of introduction, timing of start of risk production. But generally you are right. You see all the leading logic makers moving into the 10 nanometer early in next year. Now that -- like I said earlier in the previous question -- answer to the previous question, we think we see things turning up in Q2. It depends, generally, these ramps also depend on how well those 10 nanometer introductions go from a -- -- that's a yield and a production qualification point of view.

關於 10 奈米邏輯的提升，非常清楚，是的，你完全正確。我們看到所有主要邏輯製造商都在推進 10 奈米技術。我們看到，在引進時機、風險生產開始時機上存在差異。但整體來說你是對的。你會看到所有領先的邏輯製造商都將在明年初進入 10 奈米技術。現在——就像我之前在回答上一個問題時所說的那樣——我們認為我們會看到情況在第二季度出現好轉。一般來說，這取決於這些坡道也取決於 10 奈米引入的進展——從產量和生產資格的角度來看。

Now there, I must say, we have had some good and positive news also from customers that things are going well, so, yes, that might look favorable going -- let's say, onward from the second quarter. But like I said, we do not control, unfortunately, those advanced ramps for our customers. But that will determine the speed and the size of that opportunity in 2016. So let's keep our fingers crossed that we see the good development that we currently see. We see that continuing.

現在，我必須說，我們也從客戶那裡得到了一些好的和積極的消息，事情進展順利，所以，是的，這可能看起來很有利——比如說，從第二季度開始。但就像我說的，不幸的是，我們無法為客戶控制這些先進的坡道。但這將決定2016年這項機會的速度和規模。因此，讓我們祈禱能看到目前看到的良好發展。我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Hosseini.

胡賽尼先生。

Prior question, last question. Over the past several years, as logic foundry demand has actually turned out to be weaker than expected because Moore's Law is just becoming very expensive, and this kind of brings back EUV to the picture but EUV is more like a bit later this decade when it is going to be commercialized. So, Peter, with that as a background, do you see a scenario where 10 would actually end up disappointing because the cost is going up? And isn't this why the 10 nanometer ramp has tended not to be as slow as what we experienced with 20 and 16?

先前的問題，最後一個問題。過去幾年，由於摩爾定律的成本越來越高，邏輯代工需求實際上比預期要弱，這使得 EUV 重新回到人們的視野中，但 EUV 更可能在本世紀末實現商業化。那麼，彼得，基於這樣的背景，您是否認為 10 最終會因為成本上升而令人失望？這不就是為什麼 10 奈米製程的發展速度不像 20 奈米和 16 奈米製程發展速度那麼慢的原因嗎？

Mehdi, it's always a bit of a speculative question, which should warrant a speculative answer, which I'm not going to get. What we are seeing on 10 nanometer is a level of cooperation with our customers, with our logic customers, to manage the complexities of 10 nanometer multiple patterning, which should lead -- and that's what we're currently seeing -- to yields that should provide our customers and their customers with a cost per function, a cost per bit that is still competitive. That is at least for the larger applications, the applications that use the larger volume still a very attractive node.

邁赫迪，這始終是一個有點推測性的問題，應該得到一個推測性的答案，但我不會得到。在 10 奈米製程上，我們看到我們與客戶、與邏輯客戶在管理 10 奈米多重圖案的複雜性方面進行了一定程度的合作，這應該會帶來——正如我們目前所看到的——產量，這將為我們的客戶和他們的客戶提供仍然具有競爭力的每功能成本、每位成本。至少對於較大的應用程式來說，使用較大容量的應用程式仍然是一個非常有吸引力的節點。

Don't forget if you talk about 10 nanometer and you compare the 10 nanometer shrink to the 20 nanometer shrink, just from a labor point of view, 16/14/20 is about same. You talk about the significant shrink, that's a real shrink with a real cost benefit. It's hard to imagine that the end-users and the customers of our customers are going to walk away from that benefit. It is also what customers keep telling us and like I earlier said, the progress on the 10 nanometer development is going well, so we currently don't think it's going to be a small node because of that reason.

不要忘記，如果您談論 10 奈米，並將 10 奈米的縮小與 20 奈米的縮小進行比較，僅從勞動力的角度來看，16/14/20 是大致相同的。您談到了大幅縮水，這是真正的縮水，但具有真正的成本效益。很難想像最終用戶和我們客戶的客戶會放棄這種好處。這也是客戶一直告訴我們的，就像我之前說的，10 奈米開發進展順利，因此我們目前不認為由於這個原因它會是一個小節點。

You did mention one other point which I think is important. You said 10 nanometer is going to be an expensive node, which is true, and it is -- and also EUV is going to be a solution. But to be very frank, we've always planned 10 nanometer to be an EUV node. Now we're just late and this unfortunately leads to a situation where customers need to apply complex local patterning strategies, which probably means that the 10 nanometer node is going to be prolonged, which actually has an impact on EUV which is the EUV needs 6 to 12 months back for those guys, which, by the way, is what we put into our simulation model last year because we anticipated some of that complexity coming. So in that context you will see 10 nanometer and EUV.

您確實提到了另一點，我認為這一點很重要。您說 10 奈米將是一個昂貴的節點，這是事實，而且 EUV 也將是解決方案。但坦白說，我們一直在計劃將 10 奈米作為 EUV 節點。現在我們只是遲到了，不幸的是這導致客戶需要應用複雜的局部圖案化策略的情況，這可能意味著 10 奈米節點將會延長，這實際上對 EUV 產生了影響，即 EUV 需要 6 到 12 個月的時間才能完成，順便說一下模擬模型中的內容，因為我們預計會出現一些複雜性。因此，在這種情況下，您將看到 10 奈米和 EUV。

Got it. Thanks so much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Mrs. Sundararajan, Summit Research.

太太。Sundararajan，Summit Research。

Hey, this is Srini Sundararajan from Summit Research. I just wanted to know like how much DRAM CapEx spending might be going down next year for the full year 2016, if at all, and how much of it would be -- how much of the DRAM spending will be in the form of capacity growth and how much for shrinks? That's my only question.

嘿，我是 Summit Research 的 Srini Sundararajan。我只是想知道，明年全年的 DRAM 資本支出可能會下降多少（如果有的話），其中有多少是用於產能成長，有多少是用於縮減？這是我唯一的問題。

Yes, I think the total DRAM CapEx spending is really dependent on the aggressiveness with which our customers want to fill the existing new fab space that has been opened at the end of last year and the middle of this year. Those are very sizable fabs. There is a lot of potential capacity there and I think it will be a function of the end market demand and how much aggressiveness our customers will want to put into the buildup of that capacity, which will -- of course will have an impact on the supply of DRAM. So I don't know how to deal with that.

是的，我認為 DRAM 資本支出總額實際上取決於我們的客戶對填補去年年底和今年年中開放的現有新晶圓廠空間的積極性。這些都是規模非常大的晶圓廠。那裡有很大的潛在產能，我認為這將取決於終端市場需求，以及我們的客戶願意在多大程度上積極地增加產能，這當然會對 DRAM 的供應產生影響。所以我不知道該如何處理。

So this is a bit of -- it is a good question. If you had the answer, I would like to know. But we don't have that answer readily available because it depends on the customers. What we do know is that the first half of 2016 is still health, but the second half is still a bit too far out. How much of that is shrink? Well, those new fabs that we are talking about are for the leading-edge nodes. So it's shrink and capacity because the two new fab and we will take basically the leading edge devices. It's both.

所以這有點——這是一個好問題。如果你有答案，我很想知道。但我們無法立即給出答案，因為這取決於客戶。我們知道的是，2016 年上半年情況還算健康，但下半年還有些遙遠。其中縮水了多少？嗯，我們談論的那些新晶圓廠是用於前沿節點的。由於這兩座新晶圓廠的建成，產能有所縮減，我們基本上將採用最前沿的設備。兩者都有。

Thanks so much. Thanks so much.

非常感謝。非常感謝。

Mr. Iyer.

艾耶爾先生。

Yes, Redstone Research. Two questions, Peter. So if I look at the immersion revenues over the last several quarters, starting from the beginning of the year, there has been a steady decline in your immersion revenues. Given that that is significant double patterning happening, why are the immersion revenues going down? And I have a follow-up.

是的，紅石研究。有兩個問題，彼得。因此，如果我查看過去幾季的沉浸式收入，從今年年初開始，沉浸式收入一直在穩步下降。既然發生了重大的雙重曝光，為什麼浸沒式曝光的收入會下降？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, this is Wolfgang; I'll take a crack at this. You're right, I mean in general when you look for instance 28 going to 20/16/14, the litho intensity goes up by some 40%, 50%. You're also right in your observations that our systems revenue as a Company has been fairly stable over the last couple of quarters. I think there is three reasons for this at least.

是的，這是沃夫岡；我會嘗試。你是對的，我的意思是一般來說，例如當你從 28 到 20/16/14 時，光刻強度會增加 40%、50%。您的觀察也很正確，我們公司的系統收入在過去幾季一直相當穩定。我認為至少有三個原因。

One is that we have provided upgradability in our roadmaps to our systems and you will have seen that -- if you just take this year versus last year we went from EUR1.6 billion to we will be somewhere around EUR2 billion on field options and services, so we do upgrades that don't show up in our systems revenue.

一是我們在系統路線圖中提供了可升級性，您會看到——如果只看今年與去年，我們在現場選項和服務上的支出將從 16 億歐元增加到 20 億歐元左右，因此我們進行的升級不會體現在我們的系統收入中。

Second reason is that in particular over the last couple of years we have provided our customers in response to the multi-patterning requirements that Peter mentioned, with significant performance upgrades. We have 250 wafers per hour and now we're going to 275 wafers per hour. That's not going to go on forever. We're the reaching the physical limits there. And last but not least, and as was also already mentioned by Peter, we see the period of time over which customers facilitate certain nodes stretching out. If you take the 20/16/14 for instance, not all that equipment is being bought in a two-year period. We have started to ship in the second half of 2013. We are shipping in 2014 and 2015 we're actually going to ship into 2016 as well, so those are the three reasons why you are not seeing a big expansion on the system revenue yet.

第二個原因是，特別是在過去幾年中，我們根據 Peter 提到的多重圖案化要求為客戶提供了顯著的效能升級。我們以前每小時生產 250 片晶圓，現在每小時生產 275 片晶圓。這種情況不會永遠持續下去。我們正在達到物理極限。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，正如 Peter 已經提到的，我們看到客戶促進某些節點的時間段正在延長。以 20/16/14 為例，並非所有設備都是在兩年內購買的。我們已於2013年下半年開始出貨。我們將在 2014 年和 2015 年發貨，實際上我們也將在 2016 年發貨，所以這就是您尚未看到系統收入大幅增長的三個原因。

Okay, thank you. And just as a follow-up, I don't know, Wolfgang, you mentioned in terms of revenue recognition for EUV did you clarify that for 2016 it will be just probably limited to one system? Is that something that I heard or did I hear it correctly?

好的，謝謝。作為後續問題，沃爾夫岡，您提到了 EUV 的收入確認，您是否澄清說 2016 年它可能僅限於一個系統？這是我聽到的嗎？還是我聽得對嗎？

Yes, I'm glad you asked the question because we want to be crisp on that. Let me just give you a precursor. Revenue recognition is somewhat difficult for us on EUV and is in particular difficult to forecast. We have a pretty good view on the volumes, but then the revenue recognition in detail depends really on what customer we ship to, certain performance milestones, and other accounting-related treatments. In the long run, by the way, we want to do this like we do it in EUV at shipment.

是的，我很高興你問了這個問題，因為我們希望清楚地回答這個問題。讓我給你一個先兆。對我們來說，EUV 的收入確認有些困難，尤其難以預測。我們對銷售有很好的了解，但具體收入確認實際上取決於我們發貨給哪個客戶、某些績效里程碑以及其他與會計相關的處理。順便說一句，從長遠來看，我們希望做到這一點，就像我們在出貨時使用 EUV 所做的那樣。

But what we said last quarter is that we are going to give you guidance as we ship systems. Starting with the 3350 that's being shipped right now, we're telling you that of that revenue, EUR60 million will be recognized by mid-2016 with the rest in 2017. But that's just for this particular system that's shipping right now. As a reminder, we are planning to ship another two systems this quarter and there will be very likely revenue next year as well, and then we plan to ship somewhere -- if I want to pick a range, additional six, seven tools or so next year on top of that. There will be some revenue, because remember there will be some 3300s in there. There will be some revenue.

但我們上個季度說過，我們將在運送系統時為您提供指導。從目前正在發貨的 3350 開始，我們告訴您，其中 6000 萬歐元的收入將在 2016 年中期確認，其餘部分將在 2017 年確認。但這僅適用於目前正在發售的特定係統。提醒一下，我們計劃本季再出貨兩套系統，明年也很有可能產生收入，然後我們計劃在某個地方出貨——如果我想選擇一個範圍的話，明年在此基礎上還會再出貨六、七套左右的工具。會有一些收入，因為記住那裡會有一些 3300。會有一些收入。

So the EUR60 million I mentioned is by no means the entire EUV revenue, it's just the one that is attributed to the system have started shipping now. In our January call, we're going to talk about the shipments that we will make this quarter and how that will translate into 2016 revenue. I think -- and hopefully we can give more color on that -- giving that in January, but I hope that clarifies this a little bit for you.

因此，我提到的 6000 萬歐元絕不是全部 EUV 收入，而只是歸因於現已開始出貨的系統的收入。在一月份的電話會議上，我們將討論本季的出貨量以及這將如何轉化為 2016 年的收入。我認為——希望我們可以在一月份對此進行更多的闡述——但我希望這能為您澄清一點。

Yes. Thanks for clarification. That's absolutely clear.

是的。謝謝澄清。這非常清楚。

Mr. Sanganeria.

桑加內裡亞先生。

Yes, it's RBC Capital Markets. Peter, question on the memory, you said memory being healthy in the first half driven more by DRAM new capacity. When you look at the memory next year and you said overall memory could be down, so in your downside scenario are you looking at more downside from NAND or from DRAM?

是的，它是 RBC Capital Markets。彼得，關於記憶體的問題，您說上半年記憶體表現良好，這主要得益於 DRAM 新產能的推動。當您展望明年的記憶體時，您說整體記憶體可能會下降，那麼在您的下行情景中，您認為 NAND 還是 DRAM 的下行壓力更大？

Well, it's down year-on-year. We've had a particularly strong year in 2015, which was driven by the fact that we had -- it was a large DRAM factory coming online the end of last year -- just at the end of last year, taking tools throughout this year, and a very large factory coming online end of year taking tools. So in that sense, that's a significant DRAM shipment this year. NAND was pretty stable as compared also to the year before, to 2013.

嗯，去年去年有所下降。2015 年是我們業績特別強勁的一年，這得益於我們——一家大型 DRAM 工廠於去年年底投產——就在去年年底，今年全年都在使用工具，而且還有一家非常大的工廠在年底投產使用工具。從這個意義上來說，今年的 DRAM 出貨量相當可觀。與前一年（2013 年）相比，NAND 也相當穩定。

Now, when we look at the total memory market, DRAM will be driven by as I said the further buildout for the first six months of the year. We have a pretty good visibility on it, but we don't know exactly what customers are going to do with what speed and what aggression, you could say, are they going to fill up the remaining capacity in the second half of the year. That's where it becomes a bit more unclear.

現在，當我們看整個記憶體市場時，正如我所說，DRAM 將受到今年前六個月進一步擴張的推動。我們對此有相當好的了解，但我們不知道客戶究竟會以什麼樣的速度和力度做什麼，你可以說，他們是否會在下半年填滿剩餘的產能。這就是事情變得有點不清楚的地方。

And on NAND, NAND is really driven by 3D NAND. And on 3D NAND, by the end of this year, the only dedicated 3D NAND fab will be full. That means there will be -- sorry, two new 3D NAND fabs coming online, but that will be -- they will be limited in terms of the number of capacities that it will take, driven by the fact that it is still a device architecture in its first phase of its life. So it's not going to be a full ramp. Some of that capacity only comes online in the course of a year.

而在NAND方面，NAND真正驅動力是3D NAND。就 3D NAND 而言，到今年年底，唯一專用的 3D NAND 晶圓廠將滿載運轉。這意味著將會有兩座新的 3D NAND 晶圓廠上線，但它們所需的容量數量將受到限制，因為它仍然處於其生命週期第一階段的設備架構中。所以這不會是一個全面的上升。其中一些產能僅在一年內投入使用。

So by design, if you then say 3D NAND is the driver next year, there is a limitation in terms of available capacity and available appetite we think to go fast. It will probably going to be more 2017, so it's those things that we said there could be at a likelihood that DRAM will be lower than in 2016 as compared to 2015, largely driven by the strength of 2015.

因此，根據設計，如果您說 3D NAND 是明年的驅動力，那麼我們認為在可用容量和可用需求方面存在限制，需要快速發展。很可能要等到 2017 年，所以我們說 2016 年 DRAM 的價格可能會低於 2015 年，這主要是受到 2015 年強勁表現的影響。

Okay. That's very helpful. And on the 10 nanometer, the volume production is slated for second half of 2017. And so if that was the timeline, how much before do you really ship the volume to your customer? Is it second half? What you are seeing, are those pilot lines or mass production tools? And what will be really volume out in the second half of 2017? When does the volume tool go into fabs?

好的。這非常有幫助。10奈米製程的量產預計將於2017年下半年進行。如果這是時間表，那麼您真正將數量運送給客戶需要多長時間？是下半嗎？您看到的是試驗生產線還是量產設備？2017 年下半年的實際產量是多少？大量生產工具什麼時候進入晶圓廠？

Yes, I think what you need to understand is that -- we mentioned it a couple times before that 10 nanometer is highly complex. It's complex because it involves multiple patterning strategies for multiple advanced layers, which actually means that the time between shipping a tool and the qualification for production lengthens. So you should not underestimate that time.

是的，我認為你需要理解的是——我們之前提到過幾次，10 奈米非常複雜。它之所以複雜，是因為它涉及多個高級層的多種圖案化策略，這實際上意味著從運送工具到獲得生產資格之間的時間會延長。所以你不應該低估那個時間。

So when there is and -- all the roadmaps, let's say a volume ramp starting the second half of 2017, you need to think about a year earlier that you need to put those tools in and to make sure that you can grow to this full ramp, which means that the first pilot ramp will be starting somewhere in the middle of next year and the first risk production is starting at the beginning of the year.

因此，當有了所有的路線圖，比如說從 2017 年下半年開始產量提升時，你需要提前一年考慮將這些工具投入使用，並確保你可以發展到這個全面提升的水平，這意味著第一個試點提升將在明年年中某個時候開始，而第一次風險生產將在年初開始。

The new fabs will be ready soon. They will be able to take machines in the second quarter. Those machines will take time to install. It's about a quarter. So you are in Q3 of 2016 before they can start working on pilot production and then it's logical that the volume production will be in the middle of 2017. These things get more complex; takes more time. So in that sense, it all fits.

新工廠即將竣工。他們將能夠在第二季度接收機器。這些機器需要時間來安裝。大約是四分之一。因此，他們要在 2016 年第三季才能開始試生產，那麼合乎邏輯的是，大量生產將在 2017 年中期進行。這些事情變得更加複雜；需要更多時間。從這個意義上來說，一切都是符合的。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

好的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Mr. Ahmad.

艾哈邁德先生。

Hello, this is Farhan from Credit Suisse. My first question, Peter, is on the 3D NAND side. There is a very different commentary that I am hearing from you guys versus the rest of the industry. We are seeing like [EMAT], others speaking of all-time highs because of orders [available] from Toshiba and there is like a big conversion in Toshiba that's happening next year and also at Micron. So I wanted to understand is there a big difference between a customer that builds a new fab on 3D NAND versus somebody who is converting their fab from planar to 3D? Is there a big difference in inventory density?

您好，我是瑞士信貸的 Farhan。彼得，我的第一個問題是關於 3D NAND 方面的。我從你們那裡聽到的評論與業內其他人的評論截然不同。我們看到 [EMAT] 等其他人談到歷史最高水平，因為東芝有訂單，而且東芝明年將進行大規模轉型，美光公司也是如此。所以我想了解一下，在 3D NAND 上建立新晶圓廠的客戶與將晶圓廠從平面轉換為 3D 的客戶之間是否存在很大差異？庫存密度差異大嗎？

On the 3D fab, generally as a greenfield fab, we need about 10% more litho in a greenfield fab with the same wafer capacity out. We are basing what we see in 3D NAND based on the customer contacts that we have and on the shipment patterns that they are asking and on the wafer start capacity that they want to add. And we believe it is -- it doesn't show a full aggression.

在 3D 晶圓廠中，通常作為新建晶圓廠，在晶圓產能相同的情況下，我們需要在新建晶圓廠中增加約 10% 的光刻製程。我們根據與客戶的聯繫、他們要求的裝運模式以及他們想要增加的晶圓起始產能來判斷 3D NAND 的情況。我們相信，它並沒有表現出完全的侵略性。

You have mentioned Toshiba, they will likely be ready with their fab, taking tools at the end of this year. We don't foresee at a very strong ramp. With Micron, that fab will only become available in the course of the year, whereby of course the fab needs to ramp up . And those are all elements that make us believe that 2016 will be a limited year for 3D NAND. 2017, definitely. 2017 you see these two fabs ramping. That would probably be a much stronger year. We just see a slower 2016 than what you seem to indicate.

您提到了東芝，他們可能會在今年年底準備好他們的工廠並準備好工具。我們預計不會出現非常強勁的成長勢頭。對於美光公司來說，該晶圓廠將在年內投入使用，因此該晶圓廠當然需要擴大產能。所有這些因素都讓我們相信，2016 年將是 3D NAND 有限的一年。絕對是 2017 年。2017 年，你會看到這兩家晶圓廠產能不斷增加。那一年可能會更加強勁。我們只是看到 2016 年的發展速度比您預測的要慢。

Got it. Thank you. And then my second question is on the service side. You guys had record-high revenues in service. But if I look at your service revenues, they're growing from about EUR400 million a year ago to EUR575 million, almost like a 40% increase. I just wanted to understand how sustainable is the revenue level on the service side. Usually service tends to be more stable so we just wanted to get a sense of how we should think about service revenues and quarter-to-quarter [within the middle of that.]

知道了。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於服務方面的。你們的服務收入創下了歷史新高。但如果我看一下你們的服務收入，它們從一年前的約 4 億歐元成長到了 5.75 億歐元，幾乎成長了 40%。我只是想了解服務方面的收入水準是否可持續。通常服務往往更穩定，所以我們只是想了解我們應該如何考慮服務收入以及季度間的變化。

Yes, I'll take that. This is Wolfgang. First of all, you're right. We do in a quarter now that what a few years ago we did in a year. But I would like to just make sure that we are clear on the nomenclature. It's field options and services. So, it is really driven by options that we make available on our holistic lithography, the software products, but also the upgrades that we enable.

是的，我接受。這是沃夫岡。首先，你是對的。現在我們一個季度內完成的工作量相當於幾年前一年內完成的工作量。但我只是想確保我們對術語有清晰的認識。這是現場選項和服務。因此，它實際上是由我們在整體光刻、軟體產品上提供的選項以及我們實現的升級所驅動的。

If you have a 1950 immersion system, today we can upgrade that two or three levels, and those are major upgrades. I mean there like EUR20 million. Peter always calls them heart surgery. It's basically almost replacing the scanner. So that is increasing quite a bit.

如果您擁有 1950 年的沉浸式系統，今天我們可以將其升級兩到三個級別，這些都是重大升級。我的意思是大約有2000萬歐元。彼得總是稱他們為心臟手術。它基本上取代了掃描器。所以這個數字正在增加不少。

The installed base is increasing as well and with that we have higher service revenue. It's a good business for us. This year, I mentioned earlier in the response to another question, I think we'll be around EUR2 billion and we see that business continuing to grow. For modeling purposes, I think if you take a 10% increase year over year, I think you're in the ballpark. So it's a strong business for us and it continues to grow.

安裝基數也在增加，因此我們的服務收入也隨之增加。這對我們來說是一筆好生意。今年，我在回答另一個問題時提到，我認為我們的收入將達到 20 億歐元左右，而且我們看到業務將繼續成長。為了建模的目的，我認為如果每年增加 10%，那麼就大致如此了。所以這對我們來說是一項強大的業務，而且還在持續成長。

Thank you. That's all I had.

謝謝。這就是我所擁有的一切。

[Mr. Ho.]

[先生。何。 ]

Thank you very much. Maybe as just a follow-up, excluding the leading foundry players that are at 16 and 14 nanometers right now, how do you see some of their caution right now potentially impacting their 10-nanometer rollouts?

非常感謝。也許只是後續問題，排除目前處於 16 奈米和 14 奈米的領先代工廠商，您認為他們目前的一些謹慎態度可能會如何影響他們的 10 奈米推出？

Yes, we don't see that caution at all as it relates to 10 nanometer. When we talked about caution, it had to do with -- also had to do with foundries not being the, let's say, the leading foundries. We mentioned last quarter that we also saw still some upside in areas of China, areas of Taiwan, not specifically in the leading edge. That has all disappeared and it had to do with 28 nanometer also.

是的，我們根本沒有看到與 10 奈米相關的謹慎。當我們談到謹慎時，它也與代工廠不是領先的代工廠有關。我們在上個季度提到，我們也看到中國地區、台灣地區仍有一些上升空間，而不僅僅是前沿領域。這些都已經消失了，也與 28 奈米有關。

So 28 nanometer, where we planned some shipments for the remainder of the year, did not turn out to happen. I think it has largely been in that area, 28 nanometer. Here and there, some 16 and 14 nanometer tools, but those are you could say two, three tools in total and two tools are the easily E100 million. So you have to put it in context.

因此，我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內出貨一些 28 奈米產品，但最終未能實現。我認為它主要處於那個領域，即 28 奈米。這裡和那裡有一些 16 和 14 奈米的工具，但可以說總共有兩三種工具，而兩種工具的價值很容易就達到 1 億歐元。所以你必須把它放在上下文中。

So it's that caution -- that does not, let's say, I would say affect the eagerness with which customers -- I'm not talking about the 10 nanometer ramp. The 10 nanometer ramp, they keep pushing us and telling us that this needs to happen for several reasons. It's very strategic for all the leading foundries to be there with the right yields at the right time for the leading-edge customers and they are pushing it. There's no relation to this weakness or weakness or caution that we have seen in 28 and 14/16.

所以，這種謹慎並不會影響客戶的熱情——我並不是說 10 奈米的升級。10 奈米的升級，他們不斷推動我們並告訴我們這需要發生，原因有幾個。對於所有領先的代工廠來說，在正確的時間為前沿客戶提供正確的產量是非常具有戰略意義的，他們正在努力實現這一點。這與我們在 28 和 14/16 中看到的弱點或弱點或警告無關。

Great, that's helpful. And just a follow-up question on the EUV side with you now shipping the 3350B systems to your customers, are there different milestones for qualifications on that and that again will impact the revenue recognition of those systems relative to some of your earlier ones?

太好了，很有幫助。關於 EUV 方面的一個後續問題，您現在正在向客戶運送 3350B 系統，這方面的資質認證是否有不同的里程碑，這是否會影響這些系統相對於您之前的一些系統的收入確認？

Yes, like we said, it will depend customer-by-customer and, yes, when we do additional orders with additional customers, it may be that the terms and conditions will differ slightly from what we have on orders right now and that would impact when we would recognize revenue for these tools.

是的，就像我們說的，這將取決於每個客戶，是的，當我們與其他客戶進行額外訂單時，條款和條件可能會與我們目前的訂單略有不同，這將影響我們何時確認這些工具的收入。

If I may add, too, that with the earlier tools, we sold the earlier tools to the R&D folks. And the R&D folks had only one qualification requirement. They said ship us a tool that can print a wafer. When we can print a wafer, you can do rev rec because that was the only requirement.

我還可以補充一點，我們將早期的工具賣給了研發人員。而研發人員只有一項資格要求。他們說給我們一個可以列印晶圓的工具。當我們可以列印晶圓時，您可以進行轉速記錄，因為這是唯一的要求。

The 3350 is a production tool. We're selling those tools to production people, to wafer fab bosses. They have different requirements than just to create one wafer. So this is where those requirements kick in in there and that's why the rev rec is a bit more complicated than the ones that we sold to the R&D folks.

3350 是一種生產工具。我們將這些工具賣給生產人員和晶圓廠老闆。它們的要求與僅僅製造一個晶圓的要求有所不同。這就是這些要求發揮作用的地方，這就是為什麼 rev rec 比我們賣給研發人員的要複雜一些。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Mr. Jenkins.

詹金斯先生。

Yes, thanks. It's Gareth Jenkins from UBS. A couple of follow-ups if I could. Sorry to go back to 10 nanometers but I just wondered if we can talk about the length of the node and maybe the size.

是的，謝謝。我是瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。如果可以的話，我會進行一些後續跟進。抱歉回到 10 奈米，但我只是想知道我們是否可以討論節點的長度和尺寸。

Would we be right in assuming that would be a fairly short nodes or maybe 1 1/2 years before 7 comes in in logic? And given I guess litho density, the length of the node, and maybe some of the end demand weakness that we're seeing that the size might be slightly smaller than 28 or 14 in terms of capacity? And then maybe I'll come up with the other one afterwards. Thanks.

我們是否可以正確地假設這將是一個相當短的節點，或者在邏輯上 7 到來之前可能需要 1 年半的時間？我猜考慮到光刻密度、節點長度，以及我們看到的一些最終需求疲軟，那麼就容量而言，尺寸可能略小於 28 或 14？然後也許我會想出另一個。謝謝。

Yes, let's make one thing clear. When you talk about 10 and 7 nanometer, you probably talk about the specific roadmap that is out there. When we look at it -- let's look at it together. For us, the 10 and 7 nanometer is the same lithography tool. So in that sense it is not a 1 1/2 year. For us, it is closer to a three-year.

是的，讓我們明確一點。當您談論 10 奈米和 7 奈米時，您可能會談論現有的具體路線圖。當我們看它時——讓我們一起看它。對我們來說，10奈米和7奈米是相同的光刻工具。所以從這個意義上來說，它並不是一年半。對我們來說，這更接近三年。

That also coincides with some other comments that were made by other customers about a prolonging of nodes. That's what we're seeing. We're seeing it happen at 10 nanometer. The real lithography step that we will see is what -- is where we introduced EUV and whether you call it 7 or 5 or however you want to call it, that is in the 2018/2019 timeframe. And that means that we need to ship in 2017 -- start shipping in 2017, which means this is exactly in our plan.

這也與其他客戶關於延長節點的一些評論相吻合。這就是我們所看到的。我們看到它在 10 奈米上發生。我們將看到的真正的光刻步驟是 - 我們引入 EUV 的地方，無論您稱之為 7 還是 5，或者無論您想怎麼稱呼它，那都是在 2018/2019 年的時間範圍內。這意味著我們需要在 2017 年發貨——在 2017 年開始發貨，這意味著這正是我們的計劃。

So node naming can be a bit confusing. We just look at what type of machine, litho tool is needed when. That means that our advanced DPV immersion tools are needed largely in 2015 and 2016 and big part in 2017 and EUV starts to be needed in 2017 shipments for us, in use for our customers in 2018/2019. So this is how we look at it. I also think this is how you should look at it when you talk about lithography.

因此節點命名可能會有點混亂。我們只需看看何時需要什麼類型的機器和光刻工具。這意味著我們先進的 DPV 浸沒式工具在 2015 年和 2016 年的需求量很大，在 2017 年的需求量很大，而 EUV 則在 2017 年開始需要我們出貨，並在 2018/2019 年供我們的客戶使用。這就是我們對此的看法。我還認為，當你談論光刻技術時，你應該這樣看待它。

Thanks, Peter. And maybe just a follow-up on EUV. We've talked a lot about rev rec but could we talk about cost rec? I presume you'll be taking cost upfront but if so what's the timing on that? Is it -- do you recognize all the cost on the initial EUR60 million? Can you talk about cash recognition as well as so when you would actually expect to see cash payments for these? Thanks.

謝謝，彼得。或許只是 EUV 的後續。我們已經討論了很多有關 rev rec 的問題，但是我們可以討論一下 cost rec 嗎？我估計你會預先收取費用，但如果是這樣，那麼時間是什麼時候？您是否知道最初 6000 萬歐元的所有成本？能談談現金確認嗎？以及您實際上預計何時會看到這些現金支付？謝謝。

Yes, again, you'll not be surprised, this will differ customer-by-customer as well. But yes, this will make it even more complicated. We will have situations where we have to recognize that cost when we start recognizing some revenue. In that case, we'll get a little bit out of whack on the margin. We will have to describe that effect to you. Then the cash that we put a lot of attention on and you can, in general, assume that we get cash earlier than we recognize revenue.

是的，再說一次，你不會感到驚訝，這也會因客戶而異。但確實，這會讓事情變得更加複雜。當我們開始確認一些收入時，我們會遇到必須確認該成本的情況。在這種情況下，我們的利潤就會有點失衡。我們必須向您描述這種效果。然後，我們非常關注現金，通常你可以假設我們在確認收入之前就已經獲得了現金。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mr. Meunier.

穆尼爾先生。

Yes, it's Morgan Stanley. I've got two technical questions. Actually, the first one is actually on this 3350B, which was, in my mind, supposed to be delivered and installed this summer. So could you maybe explain what are the technical difficulties that you are facing with this tool? I understand it's quite difficult to deliver but still I would like to understand what is the delay related to.

是的，就是摩根士丹利。我有兩個技術問題。實際上，第一個實際上是在這台 3350B 上，在我看來，它應該在今年夏天交付和安裝。那麼，您能否解釋一下您在使用該工具時遇到的技術難題是什麼？我知道交付過程相當困難，但我仍然想了解延遲的原因是什麼。

The second question is around the ecosystem. I'm sure you send people to SPIE Photomask in Monterey. I was there. It looked like the ecosystem has made lots of progress regarding the pellicle, regarding the mask manufacturing and which size, but there is still this actinic through the pellicle inspection tool which is missing for very high-volume manufacturing. So how do you think this will be resolve with (inaudible). Thank you.

第二個問題是關於生態系的。我相信你會派人去蒙特雷的 SPIE 光掩模展。我在那裡。看起來生態系統在防護薄膜、掩模製造和尺寸方面已經取得了很大進展，但仍然存在這種透過防護薄膜的光化檢測工具，而這對於大批量生產來說是缺少的。那麼您認為這個問題將如何解決（聽不清楚）。謝謝。

Well, to talk about the first one, the 3350B shipped two or three months later than we thought. That had to do with the fact that we have a new drive laser there. That is a laser that is basically shooting at the thin droplet. It was the stability of that laser we had some issues with, but that's all resolved now so that's why we shipped the tool. It's -- when you have a big new piece of equipment and you have a planning on the integration, sometimes the integration takes a bit longer. This was the case.

好吧，說第一個，3350B 的發貨比我們想像的晚了兩三個月。這與我們在那裡擁有新的驅動雷射有關。那是一種基本上是射向薄液滴的雷射。我們對雷射的穩定性有一些問題，但現在都已解決，所以我們才運送該工具。當您擁有一件大型新設備並且計劃進行整合時，有時整合過程會花費更長的時間。事實就是如此。

On the ecosystem, there is this question of whether do we need or do not need an actinic inspection tool that can actually inspect through the pellicle. This has been a question that has been around for a couple of years. I think the general consensus is that for the EUV introduction, also for the production introduction, we do not need it. We might in the end need it if feature sizes keep going down and we keep shrinking to 5 nanometer, 3 nanometer. By that time we'd need something like an actinic inspection tool, but that's not in sight. So that's next decade.

在生態系中，有這樣的問題：我們是否需要一種能夠真正透過薄膜進行檢驗的光化檢查工具。這個問題已經存在好幾年了。我認為普遍的共識是，對於 EUV 的引入以及生產引入，我們不需要它。如果特徵尺寸不斷減少並不斷縮小到 5 奈米、3 奈米，我們最終可能就需要它了。到那時，我們將需要像光化檢測工具這樣的東西，但這目前還看不到。這就是下一個十年。

Until then, we think we can definitely live with the solution of a removable pellicle and it's up to us and our customers to prove that actually the removable pellicle is such a good solution that we don't need an actinic inspection tool at all. This is where we are today, so not -- once we have no impediment to EUV introduction in production in this -- I would say remainder of this decade.

在此之前，我們認為我們絕對可以接受可拆卸薄膜的解決方案，並且我們和我們的客戶必須證明可拆卸薄膜確實是一個很好的解決方案，以至於我們根本不需要光化檢測工具。這就是我們今天的狀況，所以，一旦我們在生產中引入 EUV 不再有任何障礙，我想說，這十年的剩餘時間裡，我們就能做到這一點。

Okay, and then a quick question about the new DV systems in 1980. What's the price increase versus the previous version which I think was in 1950?

好的，然後問一個關於 1980 年新 DV 系統的簡單問題。與我認為是 1950 年的上一個版本相比，價格上漲了多少？

1980 is a complex tool. It has some price increase but it has to do with the productivity. So while we have the high productivity as compared to the previous tool, that provides higher throughput, lower cost per wafer, lower cost per die, lower cost per bit, and that will reflect in the tool pricing. So as you know, we had a previous tool that -- in 1970 that was able to do 250 wafers per hour; this one 275.

1980 是一個複雜的工具。價格有所上漲，但這與生產力有關。因此，與先前的工具相比，我們不僅擁有更高的生產率，而且還提供了更高的吞吐量、更低的每晶圓成本、更低的每晶片成本、更低的每位成本，而這些都會反映在工具定價上。如你所知，我們之前有一個工具──1970 年時每小時可以生產 250 個晶圓；這個275。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Mr. Harchandani.

哈爾錢達尼先生。

Oh, hi. Thanks. Amit Harchandani from Citigroup. Thanks for taking my questions. Two, if I may. Firstly, with regards to EUV and the shipment being delayed from this quarter here into next year, if I could go back to that and just try to understand a little better, is that aimed at risk reduction? Is there a particular reason why the customers were unwilling to proceed on that as planned in parallel with the focus on the next node, which is the 10 nanometer?

噢，你好。謝謝。花旗集團的阿米特‧哈昌達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，我想說兩個。首先，關於 EUV 以及從本季度推遲到明年的發貨，如果我可以回顧一下並嘗試更好地理解一下，這是否旨在降低風險？客戶不願意按計劃繼續進行這項工作，同時又將重點放在下一個節點，即 10 奈米，這有什麼特別的原因嗎？

I appreciate 10 nanometer is a priority but is there a particular reason that you think that has changed in the past three months. So if you could dig a little bit more into that. And as a follow-up, if I may ask you more broadly strategically, looking at areas outside lithography, if you've talked about in collaborating with partners on the etching side, could you give us a sense of your progress there. Thank you.

我知道 10 奈米是優先事項，但您認為過去三個月內發生變化的具體原因是什麼？所以如果你能更深入地了解這一點。作為後續問題，如果我可以從更廣泛的戰略角度詢問您，看看光刻以外的領域，如果您談到與蝕刻方面的合作夥伴的合作，您能否讓我們了解一下您在那裡取得的進展。謝謝。

Yes, on the EUV shipment delay, I think I mentioned, but to be clear, the issue with 10 nanometer is that we are late with EUV. That is a major issue. We should have had EUV risk reduction or production ready at 10, which actually we didn't for all kinds of reasons. But it's complex and we had the summer acquisition and we didn't make enough progress fast enough.

是的，關於 EUV 出貨延遲，我想我提到過，但需要明確的是，10 奈米的問題在於我們的 EUV 出貨延遲了。這是一個重大問題。我們應該在 10 點就做好 EUV 風險降低或生產準備，但實際上由於各種原因我們並沒有這樣做。但它很複雜，我們進行了夏季收購，但沒有足夠快地取得足夠的進展。

I think we're hitting our targets for 2015, so we're aiming at hitting our targets in 2016 so I think we're on the right track. But we cannot change history. We cannot change the fact that we're late, so that meant that we forced our customers into a bridge solution, which is 10 nanometer, doing with multiple patterning immersion. That is highly complex and when we talk to our customers and you are absolutely right saying that 10 nanometer is the first priority; it's very strategic.

我認為我們已經實現了 2015 年的目標，因此我們計劃在 2016 年實現目標，所以我認為我們正走在正確的軌道上。但我們無法改變歷史。我們無法改變我們落後的事實，所以這意味著我們強迫客戶採用橋樑解決方案，即 10 奈米，採用多重圖案浸沒。這非常複雜，當我們與客戶交談時，您說 10 奈米是首要任務，這是完全正確的；這是非常具有戰略意義的。

We then talk to customers and say what are they focusing on and how can they divide their capacity of people that can do the integration for 10 nanometers and do the development work for 7 nanometers, that capacity is limited. That -- virtually all their people are working on the 10 nanometer introduction because that is what the first priority is.

然後我們與客戶交談，了解他們關注的重點是什麼，以及他們如何分配能夠進行 10 奈米整合和進行 7 奈米開發工作的人員能力，因為這種能力是有限的。幾乎他們所有的人都在致力於 10 奈米技術的引進，因為這是首要任務。

Now, with that fact that 10 nanometer is also stretching out so in the lifetime, as you could say, the time of that node is getting longer, it is natural that also they need individuals later. They need it later because EUV is getting introduced a bit later but also they need all their resources to do the 10 nanometer development.

現在，隨著 10 奈米的延伸，正如您所說，該節點的生命週期越來越長，因此它們以後也需要個體也是很自然的。他們稍後需要它，因為 EUV 推出得稍晚一些，但他們也需要所有資源來進行 10 奈米開發。

Those are the reasons why I say, okay, we can now take -- it's a EUR95 million or close to a EUR100 million tool today or we can take it when we actually need it and we have the resources to deal with it. And this is where we are today. It's a very practical solution that customers are now discussing with us, finding out that 10 nanometer is not as simple as we thought and that their initial desire to stay on the two-year cadence is getting more complex. You move on and you learn more, and this is what has happened. This happens throughout the year and I think it has become clear to us over the last three months that this is where we are and this is the situation and we're going to help our customers deal with it.

這就是我說，好吧，我們現在可以採取——這是一個價值 9500 萬歐元或接近 1 億歐元的工具，或者我們可以在真正需要它並且我們有資源來處理它時才採取它。這就是我們今天的處境。這是一個非常實用的解決方案，客戶現在正在與我們討論，發現 10 奈米並不像我們想像的那麼簡單，而且他們最初希望保持兩年的節奏，但現在情況變得越來越複雜。你繼續前進，學到更多，這就是發生的事情。這種情況全年都會發生，我認為在過去三個月裡我們已經清楚地認識到這就是我們所處的境地，這就是情況，我們將幫助我們的客戶應對它。

Okay, then the second question. On etch, I think one of the issues is when you keep shrinking and you do multiple patternings that one thing as overlay. Now overlay, we do actually have a metrology solution that is integrated called YieldStar, but you also have a CD, the critical dimension, how you want to go through all the critical dimension.

好的，那麼第二個問題。關於蝕刻，我認為其中一個問題是當你不斷縮小並且進行多次圖案化時，一個東西就會變成覆蓋。現在涵蓋，我們確實有一個整合的計量解決方案，稱為 YieldStar，但您還有一個 CD，即關鍵尺寸，以及您希望如何通過所有關鍵尺寸。

The CD uniformity is not only determined after the imaging process but also after the etch process. We are working together with an etch company, but also with an applied research company called [IMEC] to see what we as a combination of tool suppliers can do to help our customers to control that CD uniformity when we keep shrinking to 10, to 7, to 5. And that's work that's ongoing but I would say it's ongoing more on a research and development level where we work together with those companies.

CD 均勻性不僅在成像過程之後確定，而且在蝕刻過程之後確定。我們正在與一家蝕刻公司以及一家名為 [IMEC] 的應用研究公司合作，研究當我們不斷縮小到 10、7、5 時，作為工具供應商的組合，我們可以做些什麼來幫助我們的客戶控制 CD 均勻性。這項工作正在進行中，但我想說，它更多是在我們與這些公司合作的研發層面上進行的。

That's very helpful. Thank you, Peter.

這非常有幫助。謝謝你，彼得。

Let me jump in here for a moment. I think we have time for one last question and of course the associated follow-up. So if you are unable to get through on the call and still have questions post the call, feel free to contact ASML investor relations department with your question and we will get back to you on that as soon as we can. So operator, could we have the last caller, please?

讓我先插嘴一下。我想我們還有時間回答最後一個問題以及相關的後續問題。因此，如果您無法接通電話，並且在通話後仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題，我們將盡快回覆您。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

Mr. Menon.

梅農先生。

Liberum. Thanks for taking the question. Just going back to the 7 and 10 nanometer nodes in the context of trends in immersion revenue, I think on this Q2 conference call, TSMC made a comment that they expect total wafer starts at 7 and 10 together to be lower than at 20 and 16.

自由。感謝您回答這個問題。回到浸入式收入趨勢背景下的 7 奈米和 10 奈米節點，我認為在第二季電話會議上，台積電曾表示，他們預計 7 奈米和 10 奈米節點的總晶圓開工量將低於 20 奈米和 16 奈米節點。

Given that outlook if that were true and given that you have seen an increase in litho intensity clearly at 10 and potentially at 7 as well, would you expect that your foundry immersion or revenue trends would inflect at 10 nanometer and into 7 nanometer or given that there's also the situation where you are seeing some weakness in the smartphone market that you would see more as a continuation of the trends that you've seen in the last one or two years? And I have some brief follow-up.

考慮到這種前景，如果這是真的，並且考慮到您已經看到光刻強度在 10 奈米和 7 奈米時明顯增加，您是否預計您的代工浸沒式或收入趨勢會在 10 奈米和 7 奈米時發生變化，或者考慮到您看到智慧型手機的延續市場出現一些疲軟的情況，您會將其視為過去一兩年所見趨勢的延續？我還有一些簡短的後續問題。

Thanks. If you don't mind, I will abstain from commenting on the smartphone market because it's a bit too far away. So we just listen to our customers. The assumption that wafer capacity might be lower in let's say the 10/7 than in 2016, I think it's also something that we've assumed when we talked to last year, when we gave you an outlook until the end of the decade.

謝謝。如果您不介意的話，我將不對智慧型手機市場發表評論，因為它有點太遙遠了。所以我們只是傾聽客戶的意見。假設 2010/7 年的晶圓產能可能會低於 2016 年，我想這也是我們去年談到的假設，當時我們對本世紀末的前景進行了展望。

We have actually seen a 10% node afternoon to reduction of the wafer capacity needed is it has to do with you need to increase cost and especially the increase initial cost because the market for those customers that can afford that cost and create value with that cost, that market has a number of players.

我們實際上已經看到 10% 節點在下午減少了所需的晶圓容量，這與您需要增加成本有關，特別是增加初始成本，因為對於那些能夠承擔該成本並用該成本創造價值的客戶的市場而言，該市場有許多參與者。

All those players are very large but that market is of course smaller than we had 28 nanometer and above. So that is an assumption that we also follow, however you mentioned it. The litho intensity node by node goes up with about 40% and especially if we go to 10 and 7 we see very intense multiple patterning strategies.

所有這些參與者的規模都非常大，但這個市場當然比我們 28 奈米及以上的市場要小。所以，無論您怎麼稱呼它，我們也遵循這個假設。光刻強度節點逐一增加約 40%，特別是當我們增加到 10 和 7 時，我們會看到非常強烈的多重圖案化策略。

It won't come limited to that. Part of what we're going to help our customers by upgrading machines in the field, which will be an impetus for our service and field option sales and next to that when we look at the multiple patterning strategies and the number of layers that are affected, we also see upside in the number of units that they need from an immersion point of view.

它不會僅限於此。我們將透過現場升級機器來幫助我們的客戶，這將推動我們的服務和現場選項銷售，此外，當我們考慮多重圖案化策略和受影響的層數時，從浸入的角度來看，我們也看到了他們所需的單位數量的上升空間。

Not everything in life is that rosy. It means the costs will go up and complexities go up, so it will force customers to after this node to move into EUV. I think it's inevitable. So I don't think it has a major negative impact on us because of the reasons that I just mentioned. I think immersion business will stay very healthy for years to come.

生活中並非一切都那麼美好。這意味著成本和複雜性都會上升，因此將迫使客戶在這個節點之後轉向 EUV。我認為這是不可避免的。因此，由於我剛才提到的原因，我認為它不會對我們產生重大的負面影響。我認為沉浸式業務在未來幾年內將保持非常健康的發展。

Got it and just a very brief follow-up, a follow-up to Wolfgang. You said that R&D spending on EUV and DUV is roughly similar. When do you expect the DUV part to start falling off? In your current planning, when would you start dropping that and sort of increased the EUV spend from your overall R&D point of view?

明白了，只是一個非常簡短的後續行動，對沃夫岡的後續行動。您說 EUV 和 DUV 的研發支出大致相同。您預計 DUV 部分什麼時候會開始脫落？在您目前的計劃中，從整體研發角度來看，您何時會開始放棄這一點並增加 EUV 支出？

Let me -- the framework at first. We're just shy of EUR1.1 billion per year right now and our target is by 2020 at EUR10 billion revenue to be about 13%. The so we are foreseeing a little bit of a growth there. The split is a little bit less than half EUV and the other half is not only DUV but it's also holistic lithography and its fundamental research.

讓我先介紹一下框架。我們目前每年的收入略低於 11 億歐元，我們的目標是到 2020 年實現 100 億歐元的收入，佔比約為 13%。因此我們預見那裡會出現一點成長。其中 EUV 佔比略低於一半，另一半不僅包括 DUV，還包括整體光刻及其基礎研究。

Fundamental research I would suggest will be flat to slightly. Holistic lithography will go up year-over-year because there are a lot of additional value comes in through further software options. And then DUV over time will go down.

我認為基本面研究將會持平或略有下降。整體光刻技術將逐年成長，因為透過進一步的軟體選項可以帶來許多附加價值。然後隨著時間的推移，DUV 將會下降。

We have just put major renovation in the 1980. We will see one platform after that, so I don't think that you see a major inflection before the end of 2017, beginning 2018. That summer ramp-up more in the EUV will be going to technologies that prolong the life of the EUV, such as high-NA that some of our customers are now starting to mention publicly as well.

我們剛剛在 1980 年進行了大規模的整修。之後我們將看到一個平台，所以我認為在 2017 年底、2018 年初之前不會看到重大轉折。今年夏天，EUV 的更多成長將用於延長 EUV 壽命的技術，例如我們的一些客戶現在也開始公開提及的高 NA 技術。

So overall the shape will be overall R&D will grow at a slower slope than the revenues in the percentage will come down and somewhere in the 2017-2018 timeframe you will see EUV come a bit down and EUV extension and applications will go up in that piece of the pie.

因此總體而言，研發支出的成長速度將低於收入的下降速度，在 2017-2018 年期間，你會看到 EUV 的佔比會略有下降，而 EUV 的擴展和應用佔比則會上升。

Got it, thank you very much.

明白了，非常感謝。

With that, on behalf of the ASML Board of Management I would like to thank everybody for joining us today and I would also like to thank the operator and ask him if he would formally conclude the call please. Thank you.

最後，我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝大家今天的參與，也感謝接線員，並請他正式結束通話。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML third-quarter 2015 results conference call. Thank you for participating. You now may disconnect your line.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2015 年第三季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。