艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you standing by, and welcome to ASML 2015 fourth-quarter and annual results conference call on January 20, 2016. (Operator Instructions).

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的支持，歡迎參加2016年1月20日ASML舉行的2015年第四季及年度業績電話會議。（操作員指令）。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from our headquarters here in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is Mr. Peter Wennink, our CEO; and Wolfgang Nickl, ASML's CFO.

謝謝你，亞倫。女士們、先生們，早安，午安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部前來的還有我們的執行長 Peter Wennink 先生；以及 ASML 財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2015 fourth-quarter and annual results. Before we start, I'd like to take a brief moment to address some questions from previous calls about our Q&A queue. The process is -- you will be advised that the Q&A starts upon the operator's instructions at the opening of the call, and not before. Therefore, there's really no value in calling in too long before the call starts in an attempt to get into the queue. And as the operator mentioned, questions will be taken in the order that they are received.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2015 年第四季和年度業績。在我們開始之前，我想花一點時間來回答之前電話會議中有關我們的問答隊列的一些問題。流程是－您將被告知問答將在通話開始時根據接線員的指示開始，而不是在此之前。因此，在通話開始前很早就打電話試圖進入隊列實際上沒有任何價值。正如接線員所提到的，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

The length of the call will be 60 minutes. The call will be broadcast, and is being broadcast live over the Internet at ASML.com, and a replay of the call will be available on our website for approximately 90 days.

通話時間為 60 分鐘。此次電話會議將進行廣播，並透過 ASML.com 網路進行現場直播，會議重播將在我們的網站上提供約 90 天。

Lastly, before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during the conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of these risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement today, contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at ASML.com, and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

最後，在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。為了討論這些風險因素，我建議您查看今天發布的安全港聲明，該聲明包含在今天的新聞稿和我們網站 ASML.com 上的簡報中，以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter and annual 2015 results conference call. Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the recent quarter, and provide our review of the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of the Q4 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current channel business environment and on our future business outlook.

女士們、先生們，早安、下午好，感謝大家參加我們的 2015 年第四季和年度業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對最近一個季度的情況做一個概述和評論，並對未來幾季進行回顧。沃爾夫岡將首先回顧第四季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些評論，然後我將對當前的通路業務環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些進一步的評論，以完成介紹。

So, Wolfgang, if you will?

那麼，沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. For Q4, our sales came in at EUR1.43 billion. This included system sales of EUR881 million, of which memory represented 44% and logic represented 56%. Service and field option sales came in strong at EUR553 million. This part of our businesses grows, continues to strengthened by strong demand for holistic lithography options, high-value upgrades, and a growing installed base.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。第四季度，我們的銷售額達到 14.3 億歐元。其中包括 8.81 億歐元的系統銷售額，其中記憶體佔 44%，邏輯佔 56%。服務和現場選項銷售額強勁成長，達到 5.53 億歐元。我們的這部分業務不斷成長，並因對整體光刻選項、高價值升級和不斷增長的安裝基礎的強勁需求而繼續加強。

Our gross margin for the quarter came in at 46%, slightly above the guidance. R&D expenses came in at EUR273 million, and SG&A expenses came in at EUR90 million, essentially as we guided.

本季我們的毛利率為 46%，略高於預期。研發費用為 2.73 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 9,000 萬歐元，基本上符合我們的預期。

For the full year, our net sales reached a new record of EUR6.3 billion, which is up 7% from the prior year, and includes over EUR2 billion for field options and services. Gross margin for 2015 was 46.1%, up from 44.3% in 2014. Our basic earnings per share for 2015 were EUR3.22, up 18% year-over-year.

全年我們的淨銷售額創下 63 億歐元的新紀錄，比上年增長 7%，其中包括超過 20 億歐元的現場選項和服務。2015年毛利率為46.1%，高於2014年的44.3%。2015 年我們的每股基本收益為 3.22 歐元，較去年同期成長 18%。

Turning to the balance sheet, quarter-over-quarter cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments grew from EUR2.68 billion to EUR3.41 billion, driven by strong free cash flow which was impacted by a significant amount of customer prepayments on orders received. In Q4, we repurchased shares worth EUR141 million, bringing the total amount for repurchased shares in 2015 to EUR565 million.

談到資產負債表，季度環比現金、現金等價物和短期投資從 26.8 億歐元增長至 34.1 億歐元，這得益於強勁的自由現金流，但受到大量客戶訂單預付款的影響。第四季度，我們回購了價值 1.41 億歐元的股票，使 2015 年回購股票的總金額達到 5.65 億歐元。

Regarding the order book, Q4 bookings came in at EUR1.2 billion, 31% above our Q3 bookings. Strength in memory bookings continued to be notable, with a significant growth in our foundry bookings, leading to a strong and nicely balanced backlog across all industry sectors of approximately EUR3.2 billion.

就訂單而言，第四季的訂單額為 12 億歐元，比第三季的訂單額高出 31%。記憶體訂單的強勁勢頭持續顯著，代工訂單也顯著增長，導致所有行業部門的積壓訂單強勁且均衡，約 32 億歐元。

What that, I would like to turn to our expectations and guidance for the first quarter of 2016. We expect continued healthy memory shipments, supported by a strong backlog. Our servers and field option sales will be around the EUR500 million mark again. We expect relatively modest logic shipments in the first quarter of 2016, leading us to guide Q1 revenue at approximately EUR1.3 billion. As indicated at this time last quarter, we do, however, expect our logic customers to take shipments in Q2 which will start the ramp of 10 nanometer, and as a result we expect Q2 sales to increase significantly from Q1.

那麼，我想談談我們對 2016 年第一季的期望和指導。我們預計，在強勁的積壓訂單的支援下，記憶體出貨量將繼續保持健康。我們的伺服器和現場選項銷售額將再次達到5億歐元左右。我們預計 2016 年第一季邏輯出貨量相對溫和，因此我們預計第一季營收約 13 億歐元。然而，正如上個季度此時所指出的，我們確實預計我們的邏輯客戶將在第二季度接收貨物，這將開始 10 奈米的生產高峰，因此我們預計第二季的銷售額將比第一季大幅成長。

Based upon expected customer and product mix, a lower in sales volume forecast, and lower field option sales, we expect gross margin for Q1 to come in at around 42%. R&D expenses for the first quarter will be about EUR275 million, and SG&A is expected to come in about EUR90 million, both roughly the same as the previous quarter. Our annualized tax rate for 2016 is expected to increase to around 13%, based upon a change in tax rules that transfer some tax benefits into R&D credits.

根據預期的客戶和產品組合、較低的銷售量預測以及較低的現場選項銷售額，我們預計第一季的毛利率將在 42% 左右。第一季研發費用預計約2.75億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約9,000萬歐元，均與上一季大致相同。根據稅收規則的變化，將部分稅收優惠轉化為研發抵免，我們 2016 年的年度稅率預計將增加到 13% 左右。

Peter will talk more about our 2015 EUV accomplishments and 2016 key performance targets shortly. But I would like to make a few points regarding 2016 EUV shipments, and explain a bit further the current and expected situation related to EUV revenue recognition. We completed three EUV shipments in 2015, and started the shipment of a fourth system before year-end. One of the three systems was recognized in revenue during 2015. The other two systems that shipped, and the one system where shipment was started, should lead to a revenue of about EUR110 million in the middle of 2016, with the balance booked in 2017.

Peter 很快就會詳細介紹我們 2015 年 EUV 的成就以及 2016 年的關鍵績效目標。但我想就2016年EUV出貨量提出幾點看法，並進一步解釋與EUV收入確認相關的當前和預期情況。我們在 2015 年完成了三套 EUV 出貨，並在年底前開始出貨第四套系統。這三個系統中的一個在 2015 年已確認為收入。另外兩個已出貨的系統以及一個已開始出貨的系統預計將在 2016 年中期帶來約 1.1 億歐元的收入，餘額將於 2017 年入帳。

For 2016, we expect to ship between six and seven EUV systems. The 2016 shipments will be a combination of NXE:3300s, 3350s, and 3400s, going to both logic and memory customers. As a reminder, we will continue to guide expected revenue timing on additional EUV systems as they ship.

2016 年，我們預計將出貨六到七套 EUV 系統。2016 年的出貨量將是 NXE:3300、3350 和 3400 的組合，面向邏輯和記憶體客戶。提醒一下，我們將繼續指導更多 EUV 系統出貨時的預期收入時間。

And, finally, but certainly not with significant importance, ASML paid EUR302 million in dividends in 2015, and we purchased 6.3 million of our own shares for EUR565 million, providing a total cash return to shareholders of EUR867 million during the year.

最後，但當然不是最重要的，ASML 在 2015 年支付了 3.02 億歐元的股息，我們以 5.65 億歐元的價格回購了 630 萬股自己的股票，全年為股東帶來了 8.67 億歐元的現金回報。

In 2016, we are proposing to our Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on April 29 to increase our dividend by 50% to a level of EUR1.05 per ordinary share. Today, we have also announced the plan for an additional EUR1 billion of share repurchases over 2016 and 2017, on top of the remaining EUR500 million from our prior program.

2016 年，我們提議在 4 月 29 日召開的年度股東大會上將股利提高 50%，至每股 1.05 歐元。今天，我們也宣布了在 2016 年和 2017 年額外回購 10 億歐元股票的計劃，這筆資金是我們先前計劃的 5 億歐元的剩餘資金的基礎。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. As Wolfgang highlighted, we concluded a financially very satisfying year. Expectations for the first-quarter sales are approximately EUR1.3 billion, reflecting continued shipments for 28, 16, 14 nanometer logic capacity additions, albeit at a relatively low level, and shipments to memory customers consisting of a mix of advanced and more mature system types.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。正如沃夫岡所強調的，我們度過了財務上非常令人滿意的一年。第一季銷售額預期約為 13 億歐元，反映了 28、16、14 奈米邏輯容量的持續增加（儘管水平相對較低），以及對由先進和更成熟的系統類型組成的內存客戶的出貨量。

While first-quarter sales are expected to be relatively moderate, we clearly see, as Wolfgang said, a significant increase in combined system and service sales in the second quarter, largely driven by system shipments for the initial ramp of advanced 10 nanometer production processes at our logic customers.

雖然預計第一季的銷售額相對溫和，但正如沃爾夫岡所說，我們清楚地看到第二季度綜合系統和服務銷售額大幅增長，這主要是由於我們的邏輯客戶首次採用先進的 10 奈米生產工藝的系統出貨量所致。

While it is still a bit too early to say anything quantitatively about 2016, we do see trends and developments that we believe are worthwhile mentioning. In memory, as evidenced by the fourth-quarter bookings and our current backlog strength, our customers have indicated that their system demands will continue throughout the first half of 2016 at levels roughly equivalent to those of Q4.

雖然現在對 2016 年做出任何量化的評價還為時過早，但我們確實看到了值得一提的趨勢和發展。記憶中，正如第四季度的預訂量和我們目前的積壓訂單量所證明的那樣，我們的客戶表示，他們的系統需求將在整個 2016 年上半年持續保持與第四季度大致相當的水平。

Although we expect that two DRAM fabs will continue to install some additional tools largely meant to support the next DRAM node, we also believe that 2016 shipments to this application will be down versus a strong 2015.

儘管我們預計兩家 DRAM 晶圓廠將繼續安裝一些額外的工具，主要用於支援下一個 DRAM 節點，但我們也認為，2016 年該應用的出貨量將比 2015 年的強勁表現有所下降。

On NAND, we believe that the capacity expansions will be focused on 3D NAND applications. With the announcement of the conversion of a Chinese fab to 3D NAND that is now largely supported in our current backlog, we expect a flattish level of NAND systems revenues versus 2015.

對於NAND，我們認為產能擴張將集中在3D NAND應用。隨著中國晶圓廠宣布轉向 3D NAND（目前我們目前的積壓訂單在很大程度上支持了這項轉型），我們預計 NAND 系統營收將與 2015 年持平。

One additional memory development that appears to be worth following is the introduction of the XPoint architecture. While the full opportunity extent of this new memory architecture is still under evaluation, its potential seems significant and could, therefore, become important to our business as the advanced processes anticipated in this application are quite litho-intensive.

另一個值得關注的記憶體發展是 XPoint 架構的引入。雖然這種新記憶體架構的全部機會範圍仍在評估中，但其潛力似乎很大，因此可能對我們的業務變得重要，因為該應用中預期的先進製程是相當密集的光刻製程。

As for logic, it has now become clear to us that the introduction of the advanced 10 nanometer node ramp is progressing well, hence the continued and clear customer commitment to ramp this node starting in Q2 2016. The speed and initial size of this ramp can be explained by the value proposition provided by the significant shrink of this node versus the 16 and 14 nanometer node.

從邏輯上講，現在我們清楚地認識到，先進 10 奈米節點的引入進展順利，因此客戶持續明確承諾從 2016 年第二季度開始推進該節點的開發。這種成長的速度和初始規模可以透過該節點相對於 16 奈米和 14 奈米節點的顯著縮小所提供的價值主張來解釋。

The ultimate spend levels for logic in 2016 will depend, amongst other things, about the level of end demand, and the rate at which our customers will be able to execute their ramp; and it's, therefore, too early to accurately predict this today. For field options and services, we see continued strength in 2016, and this should show growth, previously estimated to be in the range of 10%.

2016 年邏輯的最終支出水準將取決於多種因素，其中包括最終需求水平，以及我們的客戶實現產能提升的速度；因此，現在準確預測這一點還為時過早。對於現場選項和服務，我們預計 2016 年將繼續保持強勁勢頭，並將呈現成長，此前預計在 10% 左右。

On the product side, ASML continues to focus R&D spend on lithography tools that are essential to ramp all of the current and advanced processes. With the growing litho challenges of complex and costly multipass patterning, our recently launched TWINSCAN NXT:1980 deep UV immersion scanner, with significant improvements in all key performance metrics, started volume shipment last quarter. And now with its widespread acceptance, it is ramping at a rate greater than any other advanced system in our history.

在產品方面，ASML 繼續將研發支出集中在對於提升所有當前和先進製程至關重要的光刻工具上。隨著複雜且昂貴的多通道圖案化微影挑戰日益嚴峻，我們最近推出的 TWINSCAN NXT:1980 深紫外線浸沒式掃描器在所有關鍵性能指標上都有了顯著提升，並在上個季度開始批量出貨。如今，隨著它被廣泛接受，其發展速度比我們歷史上任何其他先進系統都要快。

Our holistic lithography products continue to gain acceptance at leading-edge customers, who are using our full suite of immersion process window enhancements and process control solutions to optimize yields at the most advanced product nodes. Holistic lithography products are now extending also into EUV processes, with customers evaluating our EUV Source Mask Optimization software for the development of their 7 and 5 nanometer technologies.

我們的整體光刻產品繼續獲得前沿客戶的認可，他們正在使用我們全套的浸沒式製程窗口增強和製程控制解決方案來優化最先進產品節點的產量。整體光刻產品現在也擴展到 EUV 工藝，客戶正在評估我們的 EUV 源掩模優化軟體，以用於開發他們的 7 奈米和 5 奈米技術。

And finally on EUV, as most of you are aware, our 2015 focus has been on improving EUV stability, availability, and productivity, the key performance metrics that drive new technology adoption. In several recent public presentations, our customers have clearly recognized our EUV progress in these areas. In a four-week, customer-run manufacturing readiness test at production conditions, we've seen 15,000 wafers exposed with comparable results achieved using the same power configuration at multiple customers.

最後關於 EUV，正如大多數人所知，我們 2015 年的重點是提高 EUV 的穩定性、可用性和生產力，這是推動新技術採用的關鍵性能指標。在最近的幾次公開演示中，我們的客戶已經明確地認可了我們在EUV這些領域的進展。在為期四週、客戶在生產條件下進行的製造準備測試中，我們看到 15,000 個晶圓經過曝光，並在多個客戶處使用相同的功率配置獲得了可比較的結果。

On the raw productivity side, we have a new system configuration, the NXT:3350, that has demonstrated in our factory more than 1,250 wafers exposed in a 24-hour period. Six out of eight systems at customer sites have achieved four-week average system availability of greater than 70%, with one system reaching the 80% mark. However, the worldwide average is currently still lower, indicating that performance stability in the entire installed base needs to be further improved.

在原始生產力方面，我們有一個新的系統配置 NXT:3350，它在我們的工廠中展示了 24 小時內曝光超過 1,250 個晶圓。客戶現場的八個系統中有六個的四周平均係統可用性已超過 70%，其中一個系統甚至達到了 80%。但目前全球平均仍較低，顯示整個安裝基數的性能穩定性需要進一步提高。

We believe that our 2016 performance targets of 1,500 wafers per day and 80% total system availability are achievable, and will therefore be aggressively pursued over the course of this calendar year.

我們相信，2016 年每天 1,500 片晶圓和 80% 的總系統可用性的績效目標是可以實現的，因此我們將在今年積極追求這些目標。

Now, with that, we would be happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. But beforehand, as I always do, I would like to ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question, with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get as many callers on today as possible.

謝謝你，彼得。女士們，先生們，接線生將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程。但在此之前，正如我一貫的做法，我想請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，如有必要，可以進行一個簡短的後續提問。這將使我們能夠在今天接到盡可能多的來電。

Now, operator, can we have your instructions and then the first caller, please?

現在，接線員，請問您可以先聽取您的指示，然後再聯絡第一個來電者嗎？

(Operator Instructions). Kai Korschelt, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）。Kai Korschelt，美國銀行。

So the first one was just on the second quarter. So I'm just wondering, what level of visibility do you have? What could be the magnitude of the snapback? And the reason I'm asking is, I think if I just take your bookings in the fourth quarter, and if I add maybe EUR0.5 billion service sales, then it looks like we should be well above EUR1.6 billion. So I'm just wondering if that's the right ballpark. And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.

第一個是在第二季。所以我只是想知道，您的可見度是多少？反彈的幅度可能有多大？我之所以問這個問題，是因為我認為如果我只考慮第四季度的預訂量，再加上大約 5 億歐元的服務銷售額，那麼我們的銷售額應該會遠高於 16 億歐元。所以我只是想知道這是否是正確的範圍。然後我有一個後續問題。謝謝。

Well, we don't want to leave you down any particular number, but we chose the word significantly wisely, so we wouldn't do that if it would be just a little bit up. So we'll leave it at that today, but it's all underpinned by a strong ramp in 10 nanometer. And we also said that memory will be, throughout the first half, at Q4 levels, so I think you can approximate it from there pretty well.

好吧，我們不想讓你失望任何一個特定的數字，但是我們明智地選擇了「顯著」這個詞，所以如果只是稍微上升一點我們就不會這樣做。所以今天我們就到此為止，但這一切都是由 10 奈米的強勁成長所支撐的。我們還說過，整個上半年內存將處於第四季度的水平，所以我認為你可以從那裡很好地估算出來。

Okay. And then just a quick one on the gross margin. So, I think the Q1 guidance is probably below where most people think it would be, even if we look back at quarters with similar revenue -- run rates. So I'm just wondering, broadly, what are the reasons? And should we expect that if we do see the recovery in demand and revenues in the second quarter, that we should settle back at the 47%, 48% level that I think we've become used to it, as obviously before EUV? Thank you.

好的。然後簡單談談毛利率。因此，我認為第一季的業績指引可能低於大多數人的預期，即使我們回顧營收運行率相似的季度。所以我只是想知道，總的來說，原因是什麼？如果我們確實看到第二季需求和收入復甦，我們是否應該預期，我們應該回到 47%、48% 的水平，我認為我們已經習慣了，就像 EUV 之前那樣？謝謝。

Yes, Kai, I can address it, as well. First of all, there are no structural changes in the sense that you should be worried that pricing came down, or we have any cost issues. This is purely a function of lower volume at one, and then more so a change in mix between products and customers. And then also within the service and field options, that the service is a bit higher when compared to the field options, which come at higher margin. And then you can also read that when we say foundry is lower and memory is higher, foundry tools are usually in a richer configuration going to the customer.

是的，凱，我也可以解決這個問題。首先，沒有結構性變化，你不必擔心價格下降，或有任何成本問題。這純粹是由於銷售量較低，更重要的是產品和客戶之間的組合發生了變化。然後，在服務和現場選項中，與利潤較高的現場選項相比，服務價格略高一些。然後您也可以讀到，當我們說代工較低而記憶體較高時，代工工具通常以更豐富的配置提供給客戶。

Now, if you want to look at Q2, we won't give you an exact number. But when you consider that the volume will go up and the foundry shipments will go up, and it's 10 nanometer, it will be pretty nicely configured tools, you'll know in which direction the margin will go.

現在，如果您想查看第二季度，我們不會給您一個確切的數字。但是，當你考慮到產量會增加，代工廠出貨量也會增加，而且是 10 奈米，它會是配置相當好的工具時，你就會知道利潤率會朝哪個方向發展。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德什潘德。

Sandeep Deshpande from JP Morgan. My question would be, Peter, on the memory market. You've said that you are going to have a flattish trend in the first half in the memory market. Do you see this, into the second half, substantially correcting? Or you don't have visibility at this point into this segment?

摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。彼得，我的問題是關於記憶體市場的。您曾說過，上半年記憶體市場將呈現穩定趨勢。您是否認為下半年會大幅調整？還是您目前還不了解這個部分？

Secondly, I have a quick question on EUV as well. Clearly, EUV is progressing much better at this point in terms of throughput, and you've given some of the statistics. What time frame do you see EUV actually being built for production volumes? Thanks.

其次，我還有一個關於 EUV 的簡單問題。顯然，EUV 在吞吐量方面目前進展得更好，並且您已經給出了一些統計數據。您認為 EUV 真正實現量產需要多長時間？謝謝。

Okay. On the memory market, like I said in the introductory comments, we have very clear visibility given by our customers, also evidenced by our bookings that we received in the fourth quarter. On what we are going to ship in the first half, we're just focused on also the introduction of the new DRAM nodes. So you could say it's clearly a technology transition that is driving the shipments in the first half.

好的。在記憶體市場，正如我在介紹性評論中所說的那樣，我們的客戶給予了我們非常清晰的了解，這也從我們在第四季度收到的訂單中得到了證明。關於我們上半年要推出的產品，我們主要專注於新 DRAM 節點的推出。因此你可以說，技術轉型顯然推動了上半年的出貨量。

We don't have that visibility yet on the second half, is our current thinking. I can only give you some indication of what was said by some of the market research analyst firms. They expect -- and if they are right, and 25% bit growth for next year would mean about flat wafer capacity year-on-year, 2016 versus 2015. So that means that if the initial shipments of the technology [trends] happen in the first half, then the second half will be lower than all capacity additions needed.

我們目前的想法是，我們還沒有看到下半年的情況。我只能給你一些市場研究分析公司所說的內容的一些提示。他們預計——如果他們的預測正確的話——明年 25% 的位增長率將意味著 2016 年與 2015 年的晶圓產能將同比持平。這意味著，如果該技術（趨勢）的初始出貨量發生在上半年，那麼下半年的出貨量將低於所需的所有產能增加量。

How much lower? That's a bit too early to say. But clearly first-half technology trend and transitions; and second half, probably a lot less.

低多少？現在說這個還為時過早。但顯然上半年的科技趨勢與轉變；下半年可能會少很多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

On EUV throughput, yes, and on that we've made good progress. We've agreed with our customers the targets for 2016, and we have good confidence that we are going to get there. You have to look at 2016 as, I would say, the last phase in the EUV introduction of where our customers are developing their next nodes for which they are planning their production output in 2018 and 2019. So, it's the last phase of the development node, and the qualification of those architectures that we will see in 2018, 2019, hitting the market.

關於 EUV 吞吐量，是的，我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。我們已經與客戶商定了2016年的目標，我們有信心實現這些目標。我想說，你必須將 2016 年視為 EUV 引入的最後階段，我們的客戶正在開發他們的下一個節點，並計劃在 2018 年和 2019 年實現生產輸出。因此，這是開發節點的最後階段，我們將在 2018 年、2019 年看到這些架構的資格進入市場。

That means that 2017 will be the year where we will start to see the start of the EUV shipments for production, and they will be used in 2018. And that will accelerate through 2018. So 2017 will see the first start to make sure we can do -- customers can do the output in 2018, which will accelerate in 2018 further on. So, that's nothing different than we said, I think, last quarter; so, no change from that respect.

這意味著我們將在 2017 年看到 EUV 開始出貨並投入生產，並在 2018 年投入使用。到 2018 年，這一進程將會加速。因此，2017 年將是第一個開始確保我們能夠做到的——客戶可以在 2018 年完成輸出，這將在 2018 年進一步加速。所以，我認為這與我們上個季度所說的沒有什麼不同；因此，從這方面來看沒有變化。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

Gareth Jenkins.

加雷斯·詹金斯。

Yes, a couple if I could -- or rather one, and one follow-up. So, I just wondered if we could talk about 10 nanometer ramp, now you've got maybe a bit more visibility around it. Should we still be thinking about 10% pure wafer starts between the 2016 14 node and the 7/10 nodes, but also a 40% to 50% lithography intensity increase? Just wondered if we could elaborate on that, now you've got more line of sight. And that I have a follow-up on EUV. Thank you.

是的，如果可以的話，我會問幾個問題——或者更確切地說，一個問題和一個後續問題。所以，我只是想知道我們是否可以談論 10 奈米斜坡，現在您可能對它有了更多的了解。我們是否仍應考慮在 2016 年 14 節點和 7/10 節點之間實現 10% 的純晶圓啟動，同時光刻強度也應提高 40% 至 50%？只是想知道我們是否可以詳細說明這一點，現在您有了更多的了解。我對 EUV 有後續關注。謝謝。

Yes, just for clarification, I just missed part of your question on your 10%. You referred to 10% (technical difficulty).

是的，只是為了澄清一下，我只是錯過了你關於 10% 的部分問題。您提到了 10%（技術難度）。

The low wafer starts, Peter, between -- so, 2016 -- 14, and 7/10.

彼得，低晶片開始於 2016 年 14 月至 7 月 10 日之間。

Okay, okay, sorry. Yes, yes. Yes, it's basically --that's the assumption on the 10% that we still work with. We don't have any other data. I'll comment on that a bit later, also. The 40% litho intensity, yes, that's what node-on-node -- that's still what we think is a realistic number. On the node-on-node wafer capacity reduction, the 10% is still what we are using. You have to bear in mind that, starting from the 28 nanometer node, we see those nodes extending a lot longer than what we saw in the past.

好的，好的，抱歉。是的，是的。是的，基本上——這是我們仍在使用的 10% 的假設。我們沒有任何其他數據。稍後我也會對此發表評論。40% 的光刻強度，是的，這就是節點對節點——我們仍然認為這是一個現實的數字。在節點對節點晶圓產能減少方面，我們仍採用 10% 的減幅。你必須記住，從 28 奈米節點開始，我們看到這些節點比過去看到的要長得多。

And you've been around a long time, so you know that, between 5 and 10 years ago, nodes had a two-year life. And then the previous nodes stopped, next node came, and lasted about two years, and almost all logic customers moved in that same time period, which is less the case today, or not the case today. We see the initial acceptance of a new node being driven by the leading-edge customers. And they install, rather swiftly and rather fast, a quite a significant amount of capacity. And then you see the other customers in that segment, you could say the second-tier customers, following later.

而且您已經存在很長時間了，所以您知道，5 到 10 年前，節點的壽命為兩年。然後，前一個節點停止了，下一個節點出現了，持續了大約兩年，幾乎所有的邏輯客戶都在同一時間段內轉移了，而今天這種情況較少發生，或者說不是今天的情況。我們看到，新節點的初步接受度是由前沿客戶推動的。他們以相當迅速和快速的方式安裝了相當大的容量。然後你會看到該細分市場中的其他客戶，你可以說是隨後的二線客戶。

That is also what we see today. 28 nanometer is still being shipped, even in Q1 of 2016, which is more than four years after the initial introduction. So, you can see kind of a camel back in the first phase of that node, and then a much longer tail. Which also makes it more difficult for us to say how much will that wafer capacity for that node be. We assume 10%, but over time we will -- it needs to be proven whether this is the correct number.

這也是我們今天所看到的。28 奈米技術仍在出貨，即使在 2016 年第一季度，距離首次推出已經過去了四年多。因此，您可以在該節點的第一階段看到駱駝的背部，然後是更長的尾巴。這也使我們更難說出該節點的晶圓容量是多少。我們假設是 10%，但隨著時間的推移，我們需要證明這是否是正確的數字。

That's fair. And just one follow-up. It looks like your Chinese orders are very strong, somewhere around EUR500 million, which I would assume is mostly Dalian. Can you just give us a sense of your market share into China through the course of this year, or rather on those orders?

這很公平。並且只有一個後續行動。看起來你們在中國的訂單非常強勁，大約有5億歐元，我猜大部分來自大連。您能否向我們介紹今年貴公司在中國的市場份額，或更確切地說是這些訂單的市場份額？

Well, our market share in China has always been pretty good, and it will stay pretty good. I'm not going to give you an exact number, but we have no worries about our market share in China.

嗯，我們在中國的市佔率一直都很好，而且會保持得很好。我不會給你一個確切的數字，但我們並不擔心我們在中國的市場份額。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Jerome Ramel.

傑羅姆·拉梅爾。

Good afternoon. Jerome Ramel from Exane BNP Paribas. Peter, just want to come back to the point you made that your clients seem to be keen on moving to the 10 nanometer node because that's a [terrific] count improvement compared to the 16/14 versus the 20. Could you just give us a sense what is better? Is it the term of yield, it's in term of cost per transistor? What would make the 10 nanometer node more attractive than the 16/14?

午安.法國巴黎銀行證券部的傑羅姆·拉梅爾（Jerome Ramel）彼得，我只是想回到你提出的觀點，你的客戶似乎熱衷於轉向 10 奈米節點，因為與 16/14 和 20 相比，這是一個[極大的]數量提升。您能告訴我們什麼更好嗎？這是產量術語嗎？還是每個電晶體的成本術語？什麼使得 10 奈米節點比 16/14 更有吸引力？

Yes. From a lithography point of view, the 16/14 node is very similar from a little half-pitch dimension point of view, very similar to the 20 nanometer node. So you really should not go past 16 and 14, from a litho pitch point of view, to 10, but really 20 to 10. And that's a big shrink. And, as you know, shrink has a big impact on the cost per bit. And so it is driven by cost per bit. And for some customers, actually it's also value; just putting more functionality on the same square surface. That's what's driving it.

是的。從光刻的角度來看，16/14節點從小半節距尺寸的角度來看非常類似，與20奈米節點非常相似。因此，從平版印刷間距的角度來看，您實際上不應該超過 16 和 14 到 10，而是 20 到 10。這是一個很大的縮水。而且，正如您所知，縮小對每比特成本有很大影響。所以它是由每比特成本決定的。對於一些顧客來說，這實際上也是有價值的；只是在同一個方形表面上放置了更多的功能。這就是推動它的原因。

So you'd see -- to make clear, you see the cost per transistor going down at 10 nanometer node?

所以您會看到——更清楚地說，您看到 10 奈米節點上每個電晶體的成本下降了嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. And maybe just one follow-up. You gave guidance for the full year -- I mean quantitative guidance for the memory -- so Flash being flat, and DRAM going down. I'm not sure I understood for logic and foundry what the trend are, in term of quantitatively compared to 2015.

好的。也許只需要一個後續行動。您給了全年的指導 - 我的意思是內存的定量指導 - 所以 Flash 持平，而 DRAM 下降。我不確定我是否理解邏輯和代工的趨勢，與 2015 年相比，在數量上有何變化。

Well, I think the -- Wolfgang said the first quarter is relatively benign, but we really see the ramp starting in Q2. And then also we are extending into IDM, not only for foundry but also IDM on 10 nanometer, which will be the remainder of the year, which will drive the remainder of the year. Now, if you just look at the size of that ramp -- and the ultimate size for this year is always a bit difficult to predict in the third week of January, so as we are very early in this year.

嗯，我認為——沃爾夫岡說第一季的情況相對溫和，但我們確實看到第二季開始成長。然後，我們還將擴展到 IDM，不僅包括代工，還包括 10 奈米 IDM，這將是今年剩餘時間的發展，也將推動今年剩餘時間的發展。現在，如果你只看斜坡的大小——今年的最終大小總是有點難以在一月的第三週預測，所以今年我們還處於非常早期的階段。

But if you look at that -- what customers are telling us, it's going to be a significant ramp, and will be driven by the leading-edge players, not so much by the followers, which will follow on, I said as an answer to an earlier question, which will probably have a much longer tail. But the initial ramp up we are seeing will be significant, and that causes us to state that the 2016 logic market for us will be significantly higher than 2015.

但如果你看一下——客戶告訴我們，這將是一個顯著的增長，並將由領先的參與者推動，而不是由追隨者推動，追隨者將會跟進，正如我在回答之前的問題時所說，這可能會有更長的尾巴。但我們看到的初始成長將是顯著的，這使得我們可以說 2016 年邏輯市場將顯著高於 2015 年。

For logic, that includes logic and foundry, or that's just purely logic?

對於邏輯，這包括邏輯和鑄造，還是只是純粹的邏輯？

That's logic versus foundry and IDM.

這是與代工廠和 IDM 相對的邏輯。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

C.J. Muse.

C.J. 繆斯。

Good afternoon, C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI. I guess first question, I know there's a lot of moving parts here, but curious what are the key milestones we should be watching for EUV to be designed in at the 7 nanometer node.

下午好，我是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。我想第一個問題是，我知道這裡有很多活動部件，但我好奇的是，在 EUV 設計於 7 奈米節點時，我們應該關注的關鍵里程碑是什麼。

I think we mentioned those. I think, for our customers, it's most important that they have a certain level of productivity. But it's very important that when you start planning your production, that availability is critical. So, the 80% availability target is what we agreed with our customers. This is what we are, at least, following. I also like to refer to our presentation, where you can see that.

我想我們有提到這些。我認為，對於我們的客戶來說，擁有一定的生產力水準是最重要的。但當你開始規劃生產時，可用性至關重要，這一點非常重要。因此，80% 的可用性目標是我們與客戶商定的。至少，這就是我們正在遵循的。我還想參考我們的演示文稿，您可以在其中看到這一點。

On productivity, quite interesting: one of our key customers -- in the question that was asked recently on where the 500 wafers spread day would be sufficient for them to go into production, assuming a reliable or a, let's say, good availability of the tool. And the answer was yes, they would use it. So, you can draw a conclusion from that answer, that it's not so much now about the productivity, it is about the availability. So this is what we are really focusing on this year.

關於生產力，這很有趣：我們的一個主要客戶——最近被問到的問題是，假設該工具可靠或可用性良好，那麼每天生產 500 片晶圓是否足以讓他們投入生產。答案是肯定的，他們會使用它。因此，您可以從該答案中得出結論，現在重要的不是生產力，而是可用性。這就是我們今年真正關注的重點。

That's helpful. And as a follow-up, in terms of foundry logic spend this year, clearly a very good year for 10 nanometer. Curious if you could share your thoughts on the mix this year between 10 nanometer China foundry spending year-over-year, as well as whether you're seeing any incremental capacity adds at the 14/16 nanometer nodes. And then to follow on to that, your expectations for that 10 nanometer ramp to continue into 2017.

這很有幫助。並且作為後續，就今年的代工邏輯支出而言，對於 10 奈米來說顯然是非常好的一年。我很好奇您是否可以分享您對今年中國 10 奈米代工廠支出同比變化的看法，以及您是否看到 14/16 奈米節點的產能增加。然後繼續說，您預計 10 奈米技術的發展將持續到 2017 年。

Yes, I made some notes. The 10 nanometer ramp is predominantly outside China, if you refer to China. When we see China -- the Chinese logic or foundry market, we are clearly focusing on the nodes before 10. So the 28 nanometer node is still relatively strong in China, but also very clear indications of the move to 16 and 14. And that is where we see Chinese foundries going. Like I said, the 10 nanometer ramp will be outside China.

是的，我做了一些筆記。如果你指的是中國的話，10 奈米科技的發展主要發生在中國境外。當我們看到中國——中國的邏輯或代工市場時，我們顯然關注的是 10 之前的節點。因此，28奈米節點在中國仍然相對強大，但也有非常明顯的跡象顯示中國將向16奈米和14奈米節點邁進。這就是我們看到的中國鑄造廠的發展方向。正如我所說，10 奈米技術將在中國境外實現。

2017 is a good question. I think it's too early for us to say anything about 2017. I think what we'll have to go through is the next two, three quarters of the initial ramp, which we have a pretty decent visibility of. And 2017 will be driven, I think, by the end markets. And we'll just -- a bit too early to comment on that, C.J. (multiple speakers).

2017 是一個好問題。我認為現在談論 2017 年還為時過早。我認為我們必須經歷的是初始​​坡道的接下來的兩到三個季度，我們對此有相當好的可見性。我認為，2017 年將受到終端市場的推動。我們只是－現在評論這個還為時過早，C.J.（多位發言者）。

But C.J., directionally for 2016, the 10 nanometer will make up the majority of our shipments. But there will still be 28 and 16 and 14 shipments as well.

但 C.J.，就 2016 年而言，10 奈米將占我們出貨量的絕大部分。但仍會有 28 批、16 批和 14 批貨物。

Yes, but those are then predominantly in the direction of China, and somewhat in Taiwan.

是的，但這些主要都是針對中國，也有一部分是針對台灣。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Mr. Hosseini.

胡賽尼先生。

Mr. Hosseini, you can ask your question.

胡賽尼先生，您可以提出您的問題。

Sound like he's not there, operator. Want to go to the next one?

聽起來他不在那裡，接線員。想去下一個嗎？

Amit Harchandani, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿米特·哈爾錢達尼（Amit Harchandani）。

This is Amit Harchandani from Citigroup. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Two questions: firstly, with regards to a topic that does come up often for discussion, which is equipment reuse -- we've heard some of your peers talk about it, the customers talk about it. Could you give us a sense for how you see equipment reuse impacting your prospects for this year as compared to last year? I'm also looking forward to your medium-term financial roadmap across the different end segments. So that would be my first question, and I have a follow-up.

我是花旗集團的阿米特‧哈爾查達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。女士們、先生們，午安。兩個問題：首先，關於一個經常被討論的話題，即設備再利用——我們聽到一些同行談論它，客戶也談論它。您能否告訴我們，與去年相比，您認為設備再利用對今年的前景有何影響？我也期待您針對不同終端領域的中期財務路線圖。這是我的第一個問題，我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. The equipment reuse is always -- it appears to dominate some of our discussions lately, but it's always been there. Large IDMs have always done this, and it's a very sensible way to manage your capital efficiency. Now, with tool prices going up to where they currently are -- advanced DPV prices are EUR50 million -- there is more and more focus of our customers on capital efficiency.

好的。設備再利用始終是——它似乎主導了我們最近的一些討論，但它一直存在。大型 IDM 一直都是這樣做的，這是一種管理資本效率的非常明智的方法。現在，隨著工具價格上漲到目前的水平——先進的 DPV 價格為 5000 萬歐元——我們的客戶越來越關注資本效率。

And the reuse program, which we have designed by adapting the architecture in such a way that we can upgrade from one node to the other. And with litho intensity going up with about 40% node-on-node. And there's a very clear driver of our customers to say, what part of my installed base can we upgrade to the next node? That's called a reuse. That doesn't cover the 40% litho intensity at all. It just covers part of it.

我們設計了重複使用程序，透過調整架構，我們可以從一個節點升級到另一個節點。而光刻強度逐節點上升了約 40%。我們的客戶有一個非常明確的驅動力，那就是我們可以將我已安裝基礎的哪一部分升級到下一個節點？這才叫重用。這根本達不到 40% 的光刻強度。它只覆蓋了其中的一部分。

And we have had situations whereby reuses, let's say upgrades, were planned on the previous node, that never happened because the previous node extended longer than the original planning. So, it's nothing new. I think it's going to be part of our business going forward. Very healthy part, if you think about an extensive upgrade from a 1950 to a 1970, for instance, is a EUR20 million-plus upgrade, with these margins. Which is good business for us; helps us increase our services and option sales business, and helps our customers to manage their installed base.

我們曾經遇到過這樣的情況：在前一個節點上計劃重用（例如昇級），但由於前一個節點的延長時間比原計劃的要長，所以這種情況從未發生過。所以，這並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為這將成為我們未來業務的一部分。非常健康的部分，例如，如果您考慮從 1950 年到 1970 年的大規模升級，那麼在這些利潤率下，升級成本就是 2000 萬歐元以上。這對我們來說是好事；幫助我們增加服務和選項銷售業務，並幫助我們的客戶管理他們的安裝基礎。

So I think it's going to be part of our business, going forward. It might be new to some of our peers. But it isn't to us because, our tools have always been one of the most expensive in the customer fabs. So, it's here to stay, and it's good.

所以我認為這將成為我們未來業務的一部分。對於我們的一些同行來說，這可能是新鮮事。但對我們來說並非如此，因為我們的工具一直是客戶工廠中最昂貴的工具之一。所以，它會繼續存在，而且很好。

Thanks, Peter. And then just to clarify, the extent of reuse that you're seeing out there right now is in line with your 2020 financial roadmap?

謝謝，彼得。然後需要澄清的是，您現在看到的重複使用程度是否與您的 2020 年財務路線圖一致？

Absolutely. Yes, in our 2020 roadmap, we have actually included that reuse. It is an inevitable event. And the level of reuse that we are seeing is very much in line with our expectations.

絕對地。是的，在我們的 2020 年路線圖中，我們實際上已經包含了這種重複使用。這是不可避免的事情。我們所看到的重複使用水準非常符合我們的預期。

Thank you. And just as a follow-up if I may, Wolfgang, could you kindly just once again explain or elaborate upon your comment of EUV revenue recognition for this year? I'm afraid I did not catch it correctly. Was it EUR110 million in the middle of the year? So what are we looking for, in terms of EUV revenues this year? If you could shed some light on that. Thank you.

謝謝。作為後續問題，沃爾夫岡，如果可以的話，您能否再次解釋或闡述您對今年 EUV 收入確認的評論？恐怕我沒有正確理解。今年年中是 1.1 億歐元嗎？那麼，就今年的 EUV 收入而言，我們期待什麼呢？如果您能對此作出一些解釋的話。謝謝。

You got that right. Well, first of all, we told you that while we're in this transition period where we can recognize not when a tool leaves our factory, we will give you guidance as we ship the tools. And I said we shipped three tools last year, and of which only one recognized. And on top of that, we started the shipment of another tool. Of the two tools that shipped and have not recognized last year, and the tool that has started to ship, from these three tools together you should expect approximately EUR110 million in revenue. And that will be somewhere in the Q2, Q3, mid-year time frame. And the balance of the revenue will likely recognize in 2017.

你說得對。嗯，首先，我們告訴過您，雖然我們正處於過渡時期，但我們無法識別工具何時離開工廠，但我們會在運送工具時為您提供指導。我說過，我們去年運送了三種工具，但其中只有一種能夠被辨識。除此之外，我們也開始運送另一種工具。去年已出貨但尚未確認的兩種工具，以及已開始出貨的工具，這三種工具加起來預計收入約 1.1 億歐元。這將發生在第二季、第三季或年中某個時間範圍內。而收入餘額可能將在2017年實現。

Now (multiple speakers) the starting point, and then we also said that we will ship more tools this year. And those, of course, will -- we also told you there is, for instance, a 3300 amongst them, which will recognize faster because there the recognition rules are different because we just need to demonstrate that we can print the wafer. So there's more to come, so you've got to bear with us as we make these shipments.

現在（多位發言者）是起點，然後我們也說今年我們將推出更多工具。當然，我們也告訴過你，例如其中有 3300，它的識別速度會更快，因為識別規則不同，因為我們只需要證明我們可以列印晶圓。我們還將繼續發貨，所以在我們發貨時，您必須耐心等待。

And lastly, I'll say also that we will start to see some service revenue in the EUV field. We already had some last year. Our total revenue was about EUR100 million or so, and only a little bit over EUR60 million came from systems. So you have to bear with us, Amit. We will give you information as we go through the year.

最後，我還要說的是，我們將開始看到 EUV 領域的一些服務收入。去年我們已經有一些了。我們的總收入大約是1億歐元左右，其中只有略高於6000萬歐元來自系統。所以你必須忍受我們，阿米特。我們將在全年為您提供相關資訊。

Just to confirm, a minimum of EUR110 million, but the actual number could vary depending on your updates as you go through the quarters now?

只是為了確認一下，至少 1.1 億歐元，但實際數字可能會根據您現在每個季度的更新而有所不同？

That is correct.

沒錯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Sanganeria. One moment.

桑加內裡亞先生。請稍等。

(technical difficulty) there is same level as -- hello?

（技術難度）有同樣的水平——你好？

Yes. Okay, so you said memory at similar level to Q4, which was about EUR350 million, down 35%. So, first half at that level, and second half you said decline. That will indicate a significant down, year-over-year. Did I understand that clearly?

是的。好的，您說記憶體的水平與第四季度相似，約為 3.5 億歐元，下降了 35%。因此，上半年處於該水平，而下半年則下降。這顯示同比來看，下降幅度較大。我理解清楚了嗎？

Well, I referred to DRAM system. And since we don't split out DRAM in the fourth quarter results -- so, DRAM shipments will be about equivalent to Q4. NAND will be over the year, year-on-year, will be about flat.

嗯，我指的是 DRAM 系統。由於我們沒有在第四季業績中分拆出 DRAM，因此 DRAM 出貨量將與第四季大致相同。NAND 今年的銷售量年將基本持平。

Okay. And I want to follow up on the China. You had pretty strong orders on China; somebody mentioned EUR500 million, pretty close. And mostly, probably on NAND side, is that shipment to China mostly in Q2?

好的。我想繼續關注中國的情況。你們對中國有非常強烈的要求；有人提到 5 億歐元，相當接近了。主要是，就 NAND 而言，主要出貨到中國是在第二季嗎？

That shipment starts in Q1.

該批貨物於第一季開始出貨。

Starts in Q1?

從第一季開始？

And (multiple speakers) will continue.

並且（多位發言者）將繼續。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Mehdi Hosseini.

梅赫迪·胡賽尼。

Peter, going back to your 2015 performance, your foundry revenues were up 36%, but immersion systems shipment was down, and ASPs were down, too. Can you help me understand how did this mix change, despite the fact that foundries were up so much? And I have a follow-up.

Peter，回顧貴公司 2015 年的業績，貴公司的代工收入成長了 36%，但浸入式系統出貨量下降，平均銷售價格也下降。儘管鑄造廠數量大幅增加，您能否幫助我理解這種組合是如何變化的？我還有一個後續問題。

For 2016, you said?

您說的是 2016 年？

2015.

2015年。

Yes. Foundry shipments are up -- the ASP -- we shipped significantly more systems altogether. And they were also KrF and other systems in there. So like-for-like, the ASP didn't go down; but because of the mix, the ASP went down.

是的。代工廠出貨量上升了——平均售價上升了——我們總共出貨了更多的系統。其中還有 KrF 和其他系統。因此，相較之下，平均售價並沒有下降；但由於混合，平均售價下降了。

Yes, and it's KrF.

是的，它是 KrF。

Does not reflect that foundries spend more on their trailing edge versus leading edge?

這是否反映出代工廠在後緣的支出比前緣的支出更多？

That is absolutely -- like we said earlier, we are currently shipping a different node layers. We're -- 28 nanometer, 14/16, the first 10 nanometer R&D tools. So it's quite a mixed bag of those tools. So to draw a conclusion on ASPs or ASP trends is a bit difficult because it's quite a mixed bag. But what we can say is that with every node transition, the ASP goes up because of the richer configuration, including a lot more holistic litho options.

絕對是這樣——就像我們之前說的，我們目前正在運送不同的節點層。我們是－28奈米、14/16、第一個10奈米研發工具。所以這些工具相當混雜。因此，要對 ASP 或 ASP 趨勢得出結論有點困難，因為它相當複雜。但我們可以說的是，隨著每個節點的轉換，由於配置更加豐富，包括更多整體光刻選項，ASP 都會上升。

Now in 2015, which is true, we had a mixed bag of 28 nanometer node, 14/16 nanometer node, and some early 10 nanometer node shipments. So, I think it's a bit difficult. And it did include, as we put in the presentation, there's a lot more KrF.

現在到了 2015 年，確實，我們有 28 奈米節點、14/16 奈米節點和一些早期 10 奈米節點的出貨量。所以，我認為這有點困難。正如我們在演示中提到的，它確實包含了更多的 KrF。

Okay. And then my final question [is actually] China. Can you elaborate more whether the key end markets or device stock that is driving such a strong growth in backlog, as it relates to China?

好的。我的最後一個問題實際上是關於中國。您能否進一步闡述一下，推動積壓訂單如此強勁成長的關鍵終端市場或設備庫存是否與中國有關？

Well, it's both foundry and now also memory. So it's shipped due -- so it's the ship to region is indeed stronger. And that's because memory is now also adding, on top of the logic shipments, which are predominantly driven by 28 nanometer.

嗯，它既是代工廠，現在也是記憶體。所以它是按時發貨的 - 所以它的發貨區域確實更強大。這是因為，除了邏輯出貨量之外，記憶體出貨量也在增加，而邏輯出貨量主要由 28 奈米推動。

So there is a new NAND fab that is coming online, but also one of your Korean customers has a fab [Icheon]. How should we think about the mix -- new fab/existing fab on the 3-D NAND, and also the foundry market? Is it evenly split, or is one more than the others?

因此，有一個新的 NAND 晶圓廠即將上線，而且您的一位韓國客戶也有一座晶圓廠 [利川]。我們該如何看待 3D NAND 上的新晶圓廠/現有晶圓廠以及代工市場的組合？它是均等分割的嗎，還是其中一個比其他的多？

Well, I think there are existing fabs and the refurb fab -- one of the existing fabs that you referred to is already full. So, that means that the refurb fab is going to take tools. That's what it is. It's as simple as that, and not more difficult than that.

嗯，我認為有現有的晶圓廠和翻新的晶圓廠——您提到的其中一個現有晶圓廠已經滿員了。所以，這意味著翻新工廠將需要工具。就是這樣。就這麼簡單，沒有比這更困難的了。

Got it. Thank you. (multiple speakers)

知道了。謝謝。（多位發言者）

Pierre Ferragu.

皮埃爾·費拉古。

Good morning, it's Pierre Ferragu, Bernstein. So, I have a question on your gross margin for the back end of the year. If I understand you correctly, foundry is going to be very strong. That's a 10 nanometer node. It's very high-end tools, a lot of options and upgrades, and memory is going to be low. So should we expect a very, very healthy gross margin development beyond Q2? So in Q3 and Q4, gross margin should be also heading in the right direction? So that's one question.

早安，我是皮耶‧費拉古，伯恩斯坦。所以，我對您今年底的毛利率有疑問。如果我理解正確的話，代工將會非常強大。這是一個10奈米節點。它是非常高端的工具，有很多選項和升級，而且記憶體會很低。那麼，我們是否應該預期第二季之後的毛利率將呈現非常非常健康的成長？那麼在第三季和第四季，毛利率也應該朝著正確的方向發展嗎？這是一個問題。

And then I have just a quick follow-up on EUV. I got, at some point, confused about insertion. By understanding is that both your IDM customers and your foundry customers are going to insert EUV at the 5 nanometer nodes, so not the next one but the one after. Is that also how you see the world from where you are?

然後我再簡單跟進一下 EUV。在某些時候，我對插入感到困惑。據了解，您的 IDM 客戶和代工客戶都將在 5 奈米節點插入 EUV，因此不是下一個，而是再下一個。從你所在的位置來看，這也是你看待世界的方式嗎？

And then maybe on this 5 nanometer node insertion, how much visibility do you have today on how heavy an insertion it is going to be? Are we going to use EUV tools only at a very, very low level for the first layers? Or are we heading into a more massive adoption of EUV at this 5 nanometer node? Thanks.

那麼也許在這個 5 奈米節點插入中，您今天對於插入的重量有多大了解呢？我們是否只在第一層以非常低的水平使用 EUV 工具？或者我們會在這個 5 奈米節點上更大規模地採用 EUV？謝謝。

Yes, let me answer that EUV question first. Whether it's called 5 nanometer or 7 nanometer, I don't want to go into that nomenclature, because there is a lot of confusion about what is what. I'm also not going to tell you what we believe the lithography pitch is, because that's what's probably going to make it easier to understand that we're talking about this same thing.

是的，讓我先回答那個 EUV 問題。無論它被稱為 5 奈米還是 7 奈米，我都不想深入探討這個命名法，因為對於它的意義有許多混淆。我也不會告訴您我們認為的光刻間距是多少，因為這可能會讓您更容易理解我們正在談論同一件事。

What is most important -- and that's what we should focus on, is whether you call it 5 or whether you call it 7 -- our customers, our leading-edge customers, make it very clear to us that they will start the output of their chip architectures that need EUV -- whether that's 5 or whether that's 7, and I don't know how they call it, and I don't care -- but when they need EUV for output is 2018 starting; 2018, 2019. Which actually means that our shipments for production purposes need to start in 2017. It takes about a year to really qualify for a production run.

最重要的是——這也是我們應該關注的，無論你稱之為 5 還是 7——我們的客戶，我們的前沿客戶，都向我們明確表示，他們將開始輸出需要 EUV 的晶片架構——無論是 5 還是 7，我不知道他們怎麼稱呼它，我也不關心——但他們需要 EUV 進行輸出的時間是從 2018 年開始；這實際上意味著我們需要在 2017 年開始出貨用於生產目的。真正達到生產運作的資格需要大約一年的時間。

So, this is what we are focused on. This is what we are discussing with our customers. And this is also driving the decision points and the entry points for our customer for production insertion. It's this 2018-2019 time frame (multiple speakers).

所以，這就是我們關注的重點。這就是我們正在與客戶討論的內容。這也推動了我們的客戶進行生產插入的決策點和切入點。這是 2018-2019 年的時間範圍（多位發言者）。

Okay, and in terms of the volume of insertion, so is that going -- do you have already visibility? And how high in the architecture of the chip EUV is going to be used? Is it just going to be the most critical layers, or more than that? Do you have that visibility already, or is that still something that has to be defined?

好的，就插入量而言，情況是這樣的——你已經知道了嗎？那麼在晶片架構中EUV將會被用到多高的位置呢？它只是最關鍵的層，還是更多？您是否已經具備了這種可見性，或者這仍需要定義？

Yes, we have that visibility -- reasonable visibility from our customers. But it actually leads us to believe what we said in the past that the first year of volume ramp -- and, as you know, with the lengthening of the nodes -- we discussed it a couple of quarters ago -- everything is about 6 to 12 months later than we thought about a year ago. But we believe that the initial year of the production shipment will be a dozen or so tools. And then this will double every year that we move on.

是的，我們有這種可見性——來自客戶的合理可見性。但它實際上讓我們相信我們過去所說的，即產量增長的第一年——而且，正如你所知，隨著節點的延長——我們在幾個季度前討論過這個問題——一切都比我們一年前預想的晚了 6 到 12 個月。但我們相信，第一年的生產出貨量將會是十幾個工具。此後，我們每年都會將這數字翻倍。

So, we are still -- all our simulation models still show the same thing. So the first year of the production shipments is about a dozen tools. And then it will double the year after that, and double the year after that. (multiple speakers) right model.

所以，我們仍然——我們所有的模擬模型仍然顯示相同的結果。因此第一年的生產出貨量大約是十幾種工具。然後後年又會再翻一番，後年又會再翻一番。（多位發言者）正確的模式。

And that's related to the gross margin question, Pierre. Yes, you are right from the direction in the second half, as logic will be a bigger part of it. Directionally, margin goes up. Of course, we don't know the exact volume yet, so we can't describe that volume effect; but, directionally, you are right. One caveat: if there's a concentration of EUV revenue recognition in a quarter, you will see some distortion. But when we get to that bridge, we will explain to you how that works, and show you the margin without EUV as well.

這與毛利率問題有關，皮埃爾。是的，從下半場的方向來看你是對的，因為邏輯將佔其中更重要的部分。從方向上看，保證金上升。當然，我們還不知道確切的體積，所以我們無法描述體積效應；但從方向上看，你是對的。要注意的是：如果某個季度的 EUV 收入確認集中，你會看到一些扭曲。但是當我們到達那座橋時，我們會向您解釋它是如何運作的，並向您展示沒有 EUV 的利潤。

Excellent. Thank you very much.

出色的。非常感謝。

Andrew Gardiner.

安德魯加德納。

Thank you. It's Barclays. Good afternoon, guys. Just another one on EUV. In terms of the -- looking at the milestones you are targeting for this year, I'm just trying to understand roughly when we might be able to get a better idea as to how you are making progress.

謝謝。是巴克萊銀行。大家下午好。這只是 EUV 上的又一個。就您今年設定的里程碑而言，我只是想大致了解我們何時才能更好地了解您的進展。

You seem to be in a bit of a gap at the moment. Clearly, the customers have the 3300 tools installed and running, and those are a lot of the metrics you are talking about. The 3350s are there, or on their way. So when can we expect to see some of the first news on the 3350 tools at the customer sites? Is SPIE too early, or is it going to be a bit later than that?

您現在似乎有點陷入困境。顯然，客戶已經安裝並運行了 3300 種工具，而這些正是您所談論的許多指標。3350 已經到達，或正在路上。那麼我們什麼時候可以在客戶現場看到有關 3350 工具的一些首批新聞呢？SPIE 是否為時過早，還是會晚一點？

That's a good question. You pointed out the 3350 is really the tool that has the improvements on it that will give us the 1,500 wafers per day and the 80% availability capability. Those tools are just starting to ship. They need to be installed. The installation only takes a quarter or three months, which actually makes it too late for any significant information on the SPIE conference, which is in February. So it will be around mid-year. That's what you need to focus on.

這是個好問題。您指出 3350 確實是一款經過改進的工具，它能讓我們每天生產 1,500 片晶圓，並具有 80% 的可用性。這些工具剛開始發售。它們需要被安裝。安裝僅需一個季度或三個月的時間，這實際上使得有關二月 SPIE 會議的任何重要資訊都來不及了。所以大概是在年中左右。這才是你需要關注的。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. You've highlighted the 6 to 7 EUV tool shipments this year. Can you give us any sense as to when those are coming? Or you haven't really -- I know there's no revenue recognition for those tools. But just in terms of the rough timing of shipment to -- for us to gauge when those are leaving the facility.

好的。然後只是快速的跟進。您強調了今年 6 到 7 個 EUV 工具的出貨量。您能告訴我們這些什麼時候會到來嗎？或者你真的沒有——我知道這些工具沒有收入確認。但就大致的裝運時間而言——我們只能判斷貨物何時離開工廠。

Well, they are starting to leave the facility this quarter, the first one. So it will be throughout the year. There will be tools shipping every quarter. And as to revenue recognition, Wolfgang already said it. I gave some clear guidance for the revenue recognition of the tools that we shipped last year, and the one that was in the process of shipping towards the end of the year. But of the 6 to 7 tools that will ship in this year, there will be some revenue recognition because there's a 3300 in there, which will very likely -- two of them, could be, which will book revenue.

嗯，他們本季，也就是第一季度，就開始離開該工廠了。全年都會如此。每季都會有工具出貨。至於收入確認，沃夫岡已經說過了。我對去年我們發貨的工具以及年底正在發貨的工具的收入確認給出了一些明確的指導。但今年將交付的 6 到 7 種工具中，將會有一些收入確認，因為其中有 3300 種，其中兩種很可能將產生收入。

And also on the 3350s, it depends on the commissions or the order conditions, where we can take some revenue already in 2016. So that's why Wolfgang said, it's the minimum, and there's very likely going to be EUV revenue on top of that in the course of the year.

對於 3350 來說，這取決於佣金或訂單條件，我們可以在 2016 年獲得一些收入。所以這就是為什麼沃夫岡說，這是最低限度，今年很有可能還會在此基礎上產生 EUV 收入。

Understood. Thanks very much, guys.

明白了。非常感謝，大家。

Francois Meunier.

弗朗索瓦·默尼耶。

I just wanted to have some technical details about this 3350B that you are currently running in your factory. And first, congratulations for achieving the 1,250 wafers per day in Q4. That's a great achievement. What is, or what was, the availability of this machine actually during Q4? And maybe if you could give us some details about the laser which was used, if it was a 120 watts or a different laser source for EUV? That's the first question.

我只是想了解一下你們工廠目前運作的 3350B 的一些技術細節。首先，恭喜您在第四季度實現了每天 1,250 片晶圓的產量。這是一個偉大的成就。這台機器在第四季的實際可用性是多少？也許您可以向我們提供一些有關所用雷射器的詳細信息，例如它是 120 瓦還是用於 EUV 的其他雷射源？這是第一個問題。

The second question is -- I know it's a bit cheeky, but it's good to announce the EUR1 billion share buyback. But why not more, given the progress made by EUV [adornment] and your confidence in the 2020 target of EUR10 billion revenues? Thank you.

第二個問題是——我知道這有點厚臉皮，但宣布 10 億歐元的股票回購是件好事。但是，考慮到 EUV（裝飾）所取得的進展以及您對 2020 年實現 100 億歐元收入目標的信心，為什麼不更多呢？謝謝。

Well, I'll start with the second part, and then Peter the first part. Well, this is just another layer. We have a very clearly stated financial policy that says we evaluate what our minimum cash needs are, then we service the dividend first; that we want to have at least stable, preferably growing. Last six years, we have always been growing it. And then all the balance will go towards share buybacks.

好吧，我先從第二部分開始，然後彼得再講第一部分。嗯，這只是另一層。我們有一個非常明確的財務政策，即我們評估我們的最低現金需求，然後我們首先支付股息；我們希望至少保持穩定，最好是保持成長。過去六年，我們一直在發展它。然後所有餘額將用於股票回購。

Now, we just roll out layers of these share buybacks. And as soon as we have used up the money, we will introduce the next layer of (technical difficulty) be concerned by that at all. We're executing and the financial policy. And as we generate the free cash flow, once we are through the remaining 1.5, you should expect us to announce the next tranche.

現在，我們只是逐步推出股票回購。一旦我們用完了錢，我們就會引入下一層（技術難度），對此完全不用擔心。我們正在執行財務政策。隨著我們產生自由現金流，一旦我們完成剩餘的 1.5，您就應該期待我們宣布下一批款項。

On your question on the technical details of the 3350, well, we started shipping the 3350 in our factory, and we measure availability at that customer sites. While we haven't installed it yet and are running it at the customer sites, so it would be a bit difficult to give you an answer there. It's too early.

關於您關於 3350 的技術細節的問題，嗯，我們開始在工廠運送 3350，我們會在客戶現場測量可用性。雖然我們還沒有安裝它，也沒有在客戶現場運行它，所以在那裡給你答案會有點困難。太早了。

Also to the question of -- there's an earlier question: when are we going to see data on availability and wafer spread per day? Probably more towards the middle of the year.

另外，還有一個問題——之前有一個問題：我們什麼時候才能看到有關可用性和晶圓每日分佈的數據？可能要到年中了。

So the technical details -- but there are some features in the 3350, like the in situ cleaning and some other features, that give us the confidence that we should have a higher availability and also a higher throughput. Not so much because we have a stronger laser; the laser is the same, but more because of the transparency of the illuminator and the optics that gives us a better transmission. And that's why we get better throughput.

因此，技術細節 - 但 3350 中的一些功能，例如原位清潔和一些其他功能，讓我們有信心我們應該擁有更高的可用性和更高的吞吐量。這並不是因為我們擁有更強大的雷射；雷射也是一樣，但更多的是因為照明器的透明度和光學元件為我們提供了更好的傳輸。這就是我們獲得更高吞吐量的原因。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Mr. Ahmad.

艾哈邁德先生。

Hello, this is Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse. Thanks for taking my question. Peter, my first question is regarding 3D NAND. I just wanted to make sure I understand correctly, relative to your last call, it seems like you are up-ticking on the overall NAND CapEx. And I wanted to understand whether the linearity of the CapEx is also more weighted like the DRAM CapEx in the first half, or do you expect the NAND CapEx to be more evenly split throughout the year?

您好，我是瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。感謝您回答我的問題。彼得，我的第一個問題是關於 3D NAND 的。我只是想確保我的理解正確，相對於您上次的通話，似乎您在整體 NAND 資本支出方面有所提高。我想了解資本支出的線性是否也像上半年的 DRAM 資本支出一樣具有更大的權重，或者您是否預計 NAND 資本支出在全年的分配會更加均勻？

Well, the 3D NAND guidance is up as compared to last quarter, where we thought we were going to be down in this year. But that's because we have this new refurb fab of 3D NAND in China. That actually came up. And it's relatively flat throughout the year, so it's not a big bias to one or the other half.

嗯，與上一季度相比，3D NAND 指導有所上升，而我們原以為今年的指導會下降。但這是因為我們在中國有這座新的 3D NAND 翻新工廠。這確實發生了。而且全年來看，這一數字相對平穩，因此對其中一半或另一半不會造成太大的偏差。

Got it. And then relative to your NXE:3350 systems, they are supposed to get you to about 80% availability and 1,500 wafers per day. Where do you see the performance in the lab today? And what should we expect when the tools are at the customer's site? Should we start getting like 1,500 wafers per day from the get-go, or will that take some time to get demonstrated at the customer sites?

知道了。然後相對於您的 NXE:3350 系統，它們應該可以讓您達到大約 80% 的可用性和每天 1,500 個晶圓。您今天在實驗室看到了什麼表現？當工具到達客戶現場時我們應該期待什麼？我們是否應該從一開始就開始每天獲得 1,500 片晶圓，還是需要一些時間才能在客戶現場進行演示？

Well, what customers will actually do, because they are very expensive machines, they will always ramp these tools slowly. They go through a process of qualification, and then they will start increasing the power; they will start increasing -- with increasing the power, they will get more wafers. So it's going to be through cycles of learning. So, it is not to be expected that they will go gung-ho from day one. They will probably say, let's start where the 3300 left off, and then they are going to gradually increase.

那麼，客戶實際上會怎麼做呢？因為它們是非常昂貴的機器，所以他們總是會慢慢增加這些工具。他們要經過一個資格認證的過程，然後他們才會開始增加權力；它們將開始增加——隨著功率的增加，它們將獲得更多的晶圓。所以這將經歷一個學習週期。因此，我們不要指望他們從第一天起就全力以赴。他們可能會說，讓我們從 3300 停止的地方開始，然後他們會逐漸增加。

Got it. Thank you. That's all I had.

知道了。謝謝。這就是我所擁有的一切。

Patrick Ho.

何志強。

Stifel Nicolaus. Peter, just in terms of the EUV insertion at the 7 nanometer logic node, do you believe the change in cadence with their tick-tock process -- do you believe that buys you a little more time, in terms of guaranteeing the insertion for high-volume production at 7 nanometers?

斯蒂費爾·尼古拉斯。Peter，就 7 奈米邏輯節點的 EUV 插入而言，您是否認為他們的 tick-tock 製程的節奏變化——您是否認為這會為您贏得更多時間，以保證 7 奈米的大批量生產插入？

Well, I don't think they are that related. Customers have their plans, and whether they follow cadence A or cadence B. What they tell us is that they need their production output in a certain period, in a certain year, which is starting (technical difficulty) and in 2018. And then you just calculate back, using the cycle time that we need. And then we come to a moment where we need to start shipping the tool.

嗯，我認為它們沒有那麼大的關係。客戶有他們的計劃，以及他們是否遵循節奏A或節奏B。他們告訴我們的是，他們需要在某個時期、某一年、也就是開始（技術難度）和2018年實現生產輸出。然後你只需使用我們需要的周期時間來計算。然後我們就到了需要開始運送工具的時刻。

And what ultimately drives the decision of the customer to say, I need that output in 2018 or 2019 -- there are many, many reasons. It is not only cadence. It is also time that they need to actually develop that next node. And, for us, it's not that relevant. Most relevant is when do they need the tool? When do they tell us that they need the tool? And that's [for] 2018-2019 output, 2017 shipment, starting for us.

最終促使客戶做出決定說「我需要在 2018 年或 2019 年獲得該產出」的原因有很多。這不僅僅是節奏。他們也需要真正開發下一個節點。但對我們來說，這並不那麼重要。最相關的是他們什麼時候需要該工具？他們什麼時候告訴我們他們需要該工具？這就是我們 2018-2019 年的產量，2017 年的出貨量。

Right. And my follow-up question, in terms of the holistic lithography growth that you've seen over the last few years, how do you project the growth first in 2016 and maybe over the next couple of years? Given that it's gotten strong adoption, do you see the growth rates tapering out somewhat? Or where do you expect to continue to see that growth in that segment of your business?

正確的。我的後續問題是，就過去幾年所看到的整體光刻技術成長而言，您如何預測 2016 年以及未來幾年的成長？鑑於它已被廣泛採用，您是否認為成長率會有所下降？或者您預計貴公司該業務領域將在哪裡繼續成長？

Yes, so, in 2014, our holistic lithography business was just over EUR500 million. Last year, it was over EUR600 million, so it's growing nicely. We've previously talked about by 2017, 2018, we want to be at EUR1 billion for this business. And as a reminder, to a very large degree, a software type of business with very healthy gross margins, only the yields start being the hardware there.

是的，2014 年，我們的整體光刻業務價值略高於 5 億歐元。去年，這一數字超過 6 億歐元，因此成長勢頭良好。我們之前曾談到，到 2017 年、2018 年，我們希望這項業務的收入達到 10 億歐元。需要提醒的是，在很大程度上，軟體類型的業務具有非常健康的毛利率，只有收益才開始成為硬體。

And then you can anticipate that it will continue to grow going into our 2020 plan. It's part of helping us on the accretion of the gross margin to a 50% level. And we have also started to see, and reported back to you, that customers are evaluating some of the software features for EUV, as well. So it's not going to go away when EUV is coming in.

然後你可以預期它將在我們的 2020 年計畫中繼續成長。這是幫助我們將毛利率提高到 50% 水平的一部分。我們也開始看到並向您報告，客戶也在評估 EUV 的一些軟體功能。因此，當 EUV 出現時，它不會消失。

Yes, and I think just to add to this, I think on the total service end option sales, which includes holistic litho that Wolfgang referred to, in our model we see that growing from the EUR2 billion where we are today to the EUR3 billion to EUR3.5 billion by that time, by 2020.

是的，我想補充一點，我認為就總服務端選項銷售額而言，其中包括 Wolfgang 提到的整體光刻，在我們的模型中，我們看到該銷售額將從今天的 20 億歐元增長到 2020 年的 30 億歐元至 35 億歐元。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Excuse me. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last call. So if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the Investor Relations department with your question, and we'll get back to you soon as we can.

打擾一下。女士們、先生們，我們還有時間進行最後一次通話。因此，如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門提出您的問題，我們會盡快回覆您。

Now, Arran, can we have the last caller please?

現在，阿蘭，我們可以接聽最後一位來電者嗎？

Timothy Arcuri.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Cowen and Company, thanks. I had two questions. I guess first of all, Peter, just on the overall 2016 outlook -- I know you said that DRAM is going to be down a lot, NAND is flat, and logic is up a lot due to 10 nanometer. So, where do you and Wolfgang think that that leaves us for the year? Obviously it's going to be up, but how much? Is up 10 a comfortable number for the year, at least?

Cowen and Company，謝謝。我有兩個問題。首先，彼得，就 2016 年的整體前景而言——我知道您說過 DRAM 將會大幅下降，NAND 持平，而邏輯由於 10 奈米而大幅上升。那麼，您和沃夫岡認為今年我們的發展前景如何？顯然它會上漲，但是上漲多少呢？對於今年來說，至少增加 10 是一個令人欣慰的數字嗎？

Well, we're all well-trained accountants. So if you take 2015, and I would give you a percentage up, we would guide you for 2016, which we said we weren't going to do. So, unfortunately, we have to stick to what we call this qualitative guidance. And I think throughout the year we get -- there's a better feel for how the back end of the year is developing, and really talk about really the Q4 back end of 2016.

嗯，我們都是訓練有素的會計師。因此，如果您考慮 2015 年的情況，我會給您一個百分比的增長，我們會為您提供 2016 年的指導，我們說過我們不會這樣做。因此，不幸的是，我們必須堅持所謂的定性指導。我認為，透過全年的觀察，我們可以更好地了解年底的情況發展，並真正談論 2016 年第四季的情況。

Okay. And then just to follow up on China, I know that there was some questions asked about this. But the big order number of roughly $500 million -- sounds like this is really 3D NAND. But if I divide the numbers, that suggests it's like 120,000 of wafer starts worth of capacity. And we know that the Korea fab in China is full, and the only fab this big is the one that's still searching for a technology partner. I think the fab you talked about in the prepared remarks was half this size. So are we seeing orders for this other fab that is still looking for a technology partner? Or is my math not right?

好的。然後，為了跟進中國的情況，我知道有人就此提出了一些問題。但大約 5 億美元的大訂單金額——聽起來這真的是 3D NAND。但如果我把這些數字相除，就會發現它的產能相當於 12 萬片晶圓的產能。我們知道，中國的韓國晶圓廠已經滿載運轉，唯一一家這麼大的晶圓廠仍在尋找技術合作夥伴。我認為您在準備好的發言中談到的晶圓廠只有這個規模的一半。那麼，我們是否看到了仍在尋找技術合作夥伴的其他晶圓廠的訂單？還是我的數學不正確？

Let me make one thing clear: China is not only 3D NAND. That's a new feature of the Chinese market, on this particular refurb fab. But it's only part of the story. There's also Chinese foundries in there. So there's also onesies and twosies shipment to a fab that are almost full. So it's a mixed bag. It's definitely not only 3D NAND.

我要明確一點：中國不只是3D NAND。這是中國市場針對這個特定翻新工廠的新特色。但這只是故事的一部分。那裡還有中國鑄造廠。因此，還有一件和兩件的貨物運往幾乎滿載的工廠。所以這是一個混合體。絕對不只是3D NAND。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Well, thank you, everybody. On behalf of ASML's Board and management, I'd like to thank you for joining us on the call today.

好的，謝謝大家。我謹代表 ASML 董事會和管理階層感謝您今天的電話會議。

So, operator, if you could formerly close the call, we'd appreciate it. Thank you.

因此，接線員，如果您能提前結束通話，我們將非常感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2015 fourth-quarter and annual results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2015 年第四季和年度業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。