艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2008 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the ASML 2008 third quarter results conference call on October 15, 2008.

歡迎參加 2008 年 10 月 15 日舉行的 ASML 2008 年第三季度業績電話會議。

Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的介紹中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

ASML介紹完之後，會有提問的機會。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

我現在想把會議轉交給先生。

Craig DeYoung.

克雷格·德揚。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，運營商。

Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好，早上好。

This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at ASML.

我是 ASML 投資者關係和企業傳播副總裁 Craig DeYoung。

I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast.

歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網絡直播。

As the operator has mentioned, the subject of today's call is ASML's 2008 third quarter results.

正如運營商所說，今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2008 年第三季度的業績。

Hosting the call today are Eric Meurice, ASML's Chief Executive Officer, Peter Wennink, ASML's Chief Financial Officer.

今天的電話會議由 ASML 首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和 ASML 首席財務官 Peter Wennink 主持。

Eric's joining us today from Tokyo, Japan.

埃里克今天從日本東京加入我們。

And I mention that just in case there's any technical difficulties where he gets separated from the call, we'll make sure that he rejoins it as soon as possible.

我提到，以防萬一他與電話分開時出現任何技術困難，我們將確保他盡快重新加入。

I'd like to draw your attention now to the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and third quarter results presentation, both of which you can find on our website at www.asml.com.

現在我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿和第三季度業績介紹中包含的安全港聲明，您可以在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到這兩者。

The length of the call will be 60 minutes.

通話時長為 60 分鐘。

And now, at this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Eric Meurice for a brief introduction.

現在，在這一點上，我想把電話轉給 Eric Meurice 做一個簡短的介紹。

Yes, thank you, Craig.

是的，謝謝你，克雷格。

Good afternoon, good morning, and thank you for attending our Q3 2008 results conference call.

下午好，早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2008 年第三季度業績電話會議。

Peter and I, as usual, would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the quarter before we open up the call for questions.

像往常一樣，Peter 和我想在我們開始提問之前提供有關該季度的概述和一些評論。

Peter will start with a review of the Q3 financial performance, with added comments on our short-term outlook.

Peter 將首先回顧第三季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表更多評論。

I will complete the introduction with some further details on our longer-term view.

我將通過一些關於我們長期觀點的進一步細節來完成介紹。

Following the introduction, we will open up for questions.

介紹完後，我們將開始提問。

Peter, please.

彼得，請。

Thank you, Eric, and welcome to everyone.

謝謝你，埃里克，歡迎大家。

First of all, like Eric said, I would like to review our Q3 result highlights.

首先，正如埃里克所說，我想回顧一下我們第三季度的業績要點。

The [third] quarter ended, clearly, in line with our guidance with revenues of EUR696m on the shipments of 37 systems, 26 of which were new and 11 were Used.

[第三]季度結束時，顯然符合我們的指引，37 個系統的出貨量為 6.96 億歐元，其中 26 個是新系統，11 個是舊系統。

Amongst the new systems, 16 were the Immersion systems supporting the strong and also stable new systems ASPs of EUR21.6m, with the ASPs of all systems being EUR16m, which is the result of a larger portion of new systems sold in the third quarter.

在新系統中，有 16 個 Immersion 系統支持強大且穩定的新系統，平均售價為 2160 萬歐元，所有系統的平均售價為 1600 萬歐元，這是第三季度新系統銷售量增加的結果。

Our gross margin of 38.1% was consistent with the lower sales in this quarter versus the previous quarter's.

我們 38.1% 的毛利率與本季度低於上一季度的銷售額一致。

And, along with our reduced operating expenses of [EUR182m], our operating margin for Q3 was 12%, allowing for an operating margin year-to-date of close to 17%.

而且，連同我們減少的運營費用 [1.82 億歐元]，我們第三季度的運營利潤率為 12%，年初至今的運營利潤率接近 17%。

We maintain a strong cash balance.

我們保持強勁的現金餘額。

At quarter-end, it stands at EUR1.3b.

在季度末，它為 1.3b 歐元。

We have debt of EUR600m due in 2017 and we have a standby facility of EUR500m.

我們有 6 億歐元的債務將於 2017 年到期，我們有 5 億歐元的備用貸款。

Our bookings were nearly flat in units quarter on quarter, with 31 system orders in Q3, 18 of which were new and 16 of which were Immersion.

我們的訂單季度環比幾乎持平，第三季度有 31 個系統訂單，其中 18 個是新訂單，16 個是 Immersion。

Although we booked a larger number of new systems in the quarter, those systems did carry a high ASP of about EUR7.7m.

儘管我們在本季度預訂了更多的新系統，但這些系統的平均售價確實很高，約為 770 萬歐元。

This high used system ASP was due to the fact that we booked four Used XT1700 Immersion systems in the quarter, leading to a total booking value of close to EUR500m in Q3.

這種高使用率系統 ASP 是由於我們在本季度預訂了四個二手 XT1700 Immersion 系統，導致第三季度的總預訂價值接近 5 億歐元。

This leaves us with a system backlog value at the quarter end of over EUR1b.

這使我們在季度末的系統積壓價值超過 1b 歐元。

Now, the current financial turmoil and the significant overall economic uncertainty creates a situation in which our customers are reassessing their own capacity ramp-up plans, and those of their strategic alliances.

現在，當前的金融風暴和重大的整體經濟不確定性導致我們的客戶正在重新評估他們自己的產能提升計劃及其戰略聯盟的計劃。

Furthermore, our customers are confronted with lower-than-expected demand causing over-capacity, low memory product pricing and, important, a restricted access to capital which limits their ability to ramp-up to latest technology.

此外，我們的客戶面臨著低於預期的需求，導致產能過剩、內存產品定價低，而且重要的是，獲得資金的渠道受到限制，這限制了他們升級到最新技術的能力。

Now, due to this wait-and-see attitude of our customers, we are unable to guide on short-term bookings or to give any type of mid-term sales forecast.

現在，由於客戶的這種觀望態度，我們無法指導短期預訂或給出任何類型的中期銷售預測。

As mentioned before, a significant appetite for leading-edge lithography systems still exists as memory makers have designs ready on further cost reductions through the shrink while reducing old line capacity at the same time, as we have seen announcement of 200mm capacity taken out.

如前所述，對於前沿光刻系統的巨大需求仍然存在，因為存儲器製造商已經準備好通過縮小進一步降低成本的設計，同時減少舊線容量，正如我們已經看到取消 200mm 容量的公告。

Also, logic makers push for greater device performance through shrink of their feature sizes.

此外，邏輯製造商通過縮小特徵尺寸來推動更高的設備性能。

We do expect that for the foreseeable future virtually all customers will continue to postpone non-leading edge capacity additions.

我們確實預計，在可預見的未來，幾乎所有客戶都將繼續推遲非前沿產能的增加。

However, our current view is that the need for continued Immersion investments amongst those customers that do have the capital structure to invest should enable us to secure positive operating margins in the quarters to come.

然而，我們目前的觀點是，那些確實擁有投資資本結構的客戶需要繼續進行 Immersion 投資，這應該使我們能夠在未來幾個季度獲得正的營業利潤率。

As such, we currently maintain a 20 -- a 27 Immersion system order backlog, with a value of [EUR750m].

因此，我們目前維持 20-27 個 Immersion 系統訂單積壓，價值 [7.5 億歐元]。

In view of these customer issues I've mentioned before, we plan to ship only 27 -- sorry, 26 systems in Q4, with an average selling price of EUR16.5m.

鑑於我之前提到的這些客戶問題，我們計劃在第四季度僅出貨 27 個——對不起，26 個系統，平均售價為 1650 萬歐元。

On this lower shipment volume our gross margin for the quarter will be approximately 36%.

基於較低的出貨量，我們本季度的毛利率約為 36%。

And this will allow us to end the year at the previously guided approximate 20% decline in ASML's full-year revenues which, by comparison, will prove to show out-performance versus many of our peers, by the way.

這將使我們能夠以之前指導的 ASML 全年收入下降約 20% 的速度結束今年，相比之下，順便說一下，這將證明表現優於我們的許多同行。

On the costs side, we are determined to improve the efficiency of our R&D efforts.

在成本方面，我們決心提高研發工作的效率。

We're not cutting on R&D programs.

我們不會削減研發計劃。

And, as such, we expect our R&D expenditures will drop to about EUR124m in the fourth quarter, but further cost efficiencies are, indeed, expected.

因此，我們預計我們的研發支出將在第四季度下降至約 1.24 億歐元，但確實可以預期進一步的成本效率。

And, as seen in Q3, we have further trimmed our SG&A cost significantly, I would say, and will cut costs further to EUR47m in Q4.

而且，正如第三季度所見，我們進一步大幅削減了 SG&A 成本，我想說，並將在第四季度進一步削減成本至 4700 萬歐元。

This represents a 19% reduction in two quarters, which I think is a clear evidence of our flexibility model.

這表示兩個季度減少了 19%，我認為這是我們靈活性模型的明確證據。

Also, in the area of production, we will reduce cost through supply chain management and through the use of flexible labor and contracted activities.

此外，在生產領域，我們將通過供應鏈管理以及使用靈活勞動力和承包活動來降低成本。

I would like to remind you that also, as per our last call, discussions concluded with the Dutch tax authorities regarding the treatment of taxable income related to our patents, have resulted in structurally lower effective corporate income tax rate in the coming years, and which will be at an estimate 20% annual tax charge.

我想提醒您的是，根據我們上次的電話會議，與荷蘭稅務機關就與我們的專利相關的應稅收入的處理進行的討論已導致未來幾年結構性較低的有效企業所得稅率，這每年估計要繳納 20% 的稅費。

In summary, we remain cautious in an environment of a global financial crisis and uncertain economic future.

總而言之，我們在全球金融危機和經濟前景不明朗的環境下保持謹慎。

Fighting against product oversupply and falling product prices, our customers are struggling with their own business uncertainties.

在與產品供過於求和產品價格下跌作鬥爭的同時，我們的客戶也在與自身業務的不確定性作鬥爭。

We are prepared to adapt our Organization and cost structures such that we can weather these storms.

我們準備調整我們的組織和成本結構，以便我們能夠度過這些風暴。

But in this environment we will keep a sharp focus on our technology programs by balancing efficiency and execution to make sure that our technology leadership is reinforced.

但在這種環境下，我們將通過平衡效率和執行來高度關注我們的技術項目，以確保我們的技術領先地位得到加強。

I now turn back to Eric, who will give an outline on our technology progress, which, I said, is a key behind ASML's clear robustness.

我現在回到埃里克，他將概述我們的技術進步，我說，這是 ASML 明顯穩健性背後的關鍵。

Eric.

埃里克。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

So Peter has highlighted the fact that in these very uncertain times ASML is arguably doing better than competitors or peers, in terms of yearly sales decline in a very challenging environment.

因此，彼得強調了這樣一個事實，即在這些非常不確定的時期，ASML 可以說比競爭對手或同行做得更好，在一個非常具有挑戰性的環境中，年銷售額下降。

And this is a proof, a testament, to ASML's strong product positioning in support of customer technology transitions, which result in high system average selling prices and continuous market share growth.

這證明了 ASML 在支持客戶技術轉型方面的強大產品定位，這導致了高系統平均售價和持續的市場份額增長。

Now that's a statement.

現在這是一個聲明。

We've been doing, in fact, fairly good if you add up the fourth quarter of this year which will be remembered in the industry as a bad year.

事實上，如果你把今年第四季度加起來，我們一直做得相當好，這將被業界銘記為糟糕的一年。

But during this downturn which is starting, we will continue, as Peter say, our strong investment in R&D.

但在這場開始的低迷時期，正如彼得所說，我們將繼續大力投資研發。

But we'll strive to be as efficient in that spend as possible, with a bit of adjustments and trimming being made so that not to impact any strategic programs but, I would say, get us to be more efficient.

但我們將努力盡可能提高支出效率，並進行一些調整和調整，以免影響任何戰略計劃，但我想說的是，讓我們變得更有效率。

We will not touch any strategic programs, in particular Immersion double patterning and EUV.

我們不會觸及任何戰略計劃，特別是浸入式雙圖案和 EUV。

In Immersion, our Immersion business continues to show significant strengths, as we again shipped 16 systems this quarter.

在 Immersion 方面，我們的 Immersion 業務繼續顯示出巨大的優勢，本季度我們再次出貨了 16 個系統。

2 -- 16 additional Immersion orders, so it's pretty nice to have a book-to-bill of one in this situation, leaving 27 Immersion systems in our backlog.

2 - 16 個額外的 Immersion 訂單，所以在這種情況下有一個訂單到賬單是非常好的，我們的積壓訂單中還有 27 個 Immersion 系統。

We've shipped 46 Immersion systems year to date and we now have more than 110 Immersion systems delivered to over 20 individual customers worldwide so, clearly, a leadership position.

迄今為止，我們已經交付了 46 個 Immersion 系統，現在我們已經向全球 20 多個個人客戶交付了 110 多個 Immersion 系統，這顯然處於領先地位。

We expect that our Immersion market leadership will even strengthen as we go into 2009.

我們預計，隨著我們進入 2009 年，我們在沉浸式市場的領先地位甚至會得到加強。

We are introducing our new TWINSCAN XT1950 Immersion system which, thanks to a faster stage and an improved lens, has a performance increase of about 25% compared to its predecessor, the XT1900.

我們推出了全新的 TWINSCAN XT1950 Immersion 系統，得益於更快的載物台和改進的鏡頭，與其前身 XT1900 相比，性能提高了約 25%。

This makes this tool, first, increasingly affordable for 55 nanometer and 45 nanometer processing, which is what the predecessor was capable of doing but, in addition, extend the performance of this machine to the 32 nanometer node.

首先，這使得該工具越來越適合 55 納米和 45 納米處理，這是前身能夠做到的，此外，還將該機器的性能擴展到 32 納米節點。

It is clear that this machine, with its unique lens summarized by the numerical aperture of 135, and the overlay of 4 nanometer specification, with this, this tool has no competitive tool match in existence, or even announced by our competition.

很明顯，這台機器以135的數值孔徑概括的獨特鏡頭，以及4納米規格的疊加，如此一來，這台工具就沒有競爭對手的工具存在，甚至被我們的競爭對手宣布。

In addition, we have now, today, formally introduced our next generation multi-purpose platform, the NXT.

此外，我們今天正式推出了我們的下一代多功能平台 NXT。

It will have unprecedented speed of above 200 wafer per hour and overlay accuracy in the 2 nanometer range.

它將具有前所未有的每小時 200 片晶圓以上的速度和 2 納米範圍內的覆蓋精度。

And we'll begin to ship in mid 2009.

我們將在 2009 年年中開始發貨。

It will be positioned first as a very advanced tool for double patterning, but will soon become the future cost-effective Immersion platform of choice.

它將首先定位為非常先進的雙重圖案工具，但很快將成為未來具有成本效益的首選 Immersion 平台。

Beyond Immersion, and beyond double patterning and, as reporting in our recent EUV conference in Lake Tahoe in California, we have achieved significant breakthroughs in our Extreme UV program, as the productivity of the EUV Alpha-Demo Tool which we have shipped, as you know, in Albany in New York and IMAC, this tool is now reaching initially targeted throughputs, and as light source suppliers are now confirming road maps which enable system performance well beyond 100 wafers per hour.

超越沉浸，超越雙圖案，正如我們最近在加利福尼亞州太浩湖舉行的 EUV 會議上報告的那樣，我們在極端紫外線計劃中取得了重大突破，因為我們已經交付的 EUV Alpha-Demo 工具的生產力，正如您眾所周知，在紐約的奧爾巴尼和 IMAC，該工具現已達到最初的目標吞吐量，並且作為光源供應商現在正在確認使系統性能遠遠超過每小時 100 個晶圓的路線圖。

Starting in 2010, we will ship 60 wafer per hour production EUV system upgradeable to 100 wafer per hour.

從 2010 年開始，我們將出貨每小時 60 片晶圓的生產 EUV 系統，可升級到每小時 100 片晶圓。

System with even higher speed performance growth of more than 140 wafers per hour at resolution of 22 nanometer and less are on the road map for 2012 production.

在 22 納米或更小的分辨率下，每小時生產超過 140 個晶圓的速度更快的系統已列入 2012 年生產路線圖。

EUV will provide game-changing lithography cost dynamics which will lead to widespread adoption of this technology by 2011, 2012.

EUV 將提供改變遊戲規則的光刻成本動態，這將導致到 2011 年和 2012 年廣泛採用該技術。

We will be well ahead when this market transitions takes place.

當這種市場轉變發生時，我們將遙遙領先。

In parallel to our focus on R&D execution, and as hinted by Peter, we plan to accelerate our operational efficiency programs for us to become an even stronger Company, capable of weathering the current crisis, but deliver -- and deliver profit.

在我們專注於研發執行的同時，正如彼得所暗示的那樣，我們計劃加快我們的運營效率計劃，使我們成為一家更強大的公司，能夠度過當前的危機，但交付 - 並交付利潤。

And even though I would say be more aggressive price-wise.

即使我會說在價格方面更具侵略性。

We have developed structural manufacturing and supply chain improvements which are already starting to yield cycle time and cost improvement, as we make short-term adjustment to our cost base using our embedded labor and contractor flexibility.

我們已經開發了結構製造和供應鏈改進，這些改進已經開始產生週期時間和成本改進，因為我們使用我們的嵌入式勞動力和承包商靈活性對我們的成本基礎進行短期調整。

And Peter gave you two or three statistics.

彼得給了你兩三個統計數據。

So, although it is much too early to show optimism as to the economic environment, it is, however, important to note a certain number of fairly positive developments.

因此，儘管現在對經濟環境表現出樂觀態度還為時過早，但重要的是要注意一些相當積極的發展。

The first one is the euro weakening versus the yen and the dollar.

第一個是歐元兌日元和美元走弱。

And, as you know, we are a euro Company, our competitors are yen based and our customers are buying in dollars.

而且，如您所知，我們是一家歐元公司，我們的競爭對手以日元為基礎，我們的客戶以美元購買。

So, being or becoming a price aggressive Company due to the weakening of the yen is a good thing.

因此，由於日元疲軟而成為或成為價格激進的公司是一件好事。

I remind everybody that euro has appreciated versus the other currencies by a factor 60% or 80% in the past four years.

我提醒大家，在過去四年中，歐元兌其他貨幣升值了 60% 或 80%。

We have weathered this appreciation and still gained market share and increased profitability.

我們經受住了這種升值，仍然獲得了市場份額並提高了盈利能力。

The fact that the tables are turning is in fact a very, very good encouraging possibility for us to proceed giving even more value to our customers and probably even reinforcing our market share gain and protecting our margin.

事實上，形勢正在轉變是一個非常非常好的鼓舞人心的可能性，我們可以繼續為我們的客戶提供更多價值，甚至可能加強我們的市場份額增長並保護我們的利潤率。

That is good.

那很好。

The accelerated retirement of FLASH and DRAM 200mm capacity is also a good thing.

FLASH和DRAM 200mm容量的加速退役也是一件好事。

You have heard a significant numbers of our customers have now announced the retiring of those Fabs.

您已經聽說我們的大量客戶現已宣布停用這些晶圓廠。

You have DRAM Fabs in China, in Korea, in Taiwan, in America, which have been retired.

中國、韓國、台灣、美國都有 DRAM 工廠，但這些工廠已經退役。

You have even FLASH Fabs in Korea and in America which are being retired.

你們甚至在韓國和美國都有正在退役的 FLASH Fabs。

This is unprecedented in the industry.

這在業內是前所未有的。

This is, in some ways, bad news for our customer in the sense that the price pressure forced them to do so.

從某種意義上說，這對我們的客戶來說是個壞消息，因為價格壓力迫使他們這樣做。

But, clearly, we are now witnessing a significant capacity shrink in this business which is, again, a very good thing for the need for further CapEx.

但是，很明顯，我們現在正在目睹該業務的產能大幅縮減，這對於進一步資本支出的需求來說也是一件好事。

And then the third point, as we have mentioned it on a regular basis, the virtual stability of 300mm capacity during the year 2008.

然後是第三點，正如我們經常提到的，2008 年 300 毫米容量的虛擬穩定性。

In other terms, we and our competitors have not shipped in 2008 a lot of capacity build in FLASH, DRAM or Logic.

換句話說，我們和我們的競爭對手在 2008 年並沒有出貨大量的閃存、DRAM 或邏輯容量構建。

We have really much concentrated in technology transition capacity but not so much in real square meter capacity increase.

我們非常專注於技術轉換能力，但沒有那麼多地關注實際平方米的能力增長。

So, in other terms, if you add my point number two, which is retirement of 200mm, and my point number three, which is the fact that we haven't added significant 300mm capacity, you can consider that this all will contribute to a very healthy restart of the business when electronics and demand strengthen.

因此，換句話說，如果你加上我的第二點，即 200 毫米的退役，以及我的第三點，即我們沒有增加大量 300 毫米容量的事實，你可以認為這一切都將有助於當電子產品和需求增強時，業務將非常健康地重啟。

That's a problem of the day.

這是今天的問題。

The end demand has [tanked] for the past, say, two months or so.

過去，比如說，兩個月左右，終端需求已經[下降]。

This has created a reaction in terms of CapEx build, but this reaction is healthy in a sense that it doesn't create over-capacity of any sort and allows us, I would say, a springboard of restart.

這在資本支出建設方面產生了反應，但從某種意義上說，這種反應是健康的，因為它不會造成任何類型的產能過剩，並且允許我們，我想說，是重啟的跳板。

So, in conclusion, it is natural that a CapEx industry like ours is impacted by a short term -- in the short term by the uncertainty of the overall semiconductor end demand.

因此，總而言之，像我們這樣的資本支出行業受到短期影響是很自然的——在短期內受到整體半導體終端需求不確定性的影響。

It is natural in a wait-and-see attitude, or in a slowness of end products, CapEx is squeezed.

觀望態度很自然，或者在終端產品緩慢的情況下，資本支出受到擠壓。

Customers can always wait a certain numbers of weeks and months.

客戶總是可以等待一定數量的周數和月數。

And this is what we are having today, so very natural position.

這就是我們今天所擁有的，非常自然的立場。

However, we're confident that in the mid-term future, due to our strong technology and market position which I talked about, and due to the current rationalization of the Fab capacity worldwide or, in fact, the acceleration of this rationalization, we're fairly confident about our mid-term future.

然而，我們有信心在中期的未來，由於我談到的我們強大的技術和市場地位，以及由於目前全球晶圓廠產能的合理化，或者事實上，這種合理化的加速，我們對我們的中期未來相當有信心。

So, on this, I would like to open this to questions.

因此，關於這一點，我想公開提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Technical difficulty) Thanks, Eric.

（技術難度）謝謝，埃里克。

Ladies and gentlemen, the Operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session.

女士們，先生們，接線員將立即指導您了解問答環節的流程。

But beforehand, I'd like to ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow up if necessary.

但在此之前，我想請您將自己限制在一個問題上，並在必要時進行簡短的跟進。

This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible.

這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的來電者。

Now, operator, if we could have your instructions and then the first question, please.

現在，接線員，請問您的指示，然後是第一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this start -- at this time we will begin the question and answer session.

女士們，先生們，現在開始——此時我們將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

One moment, please, for the first question.

第一個問題，請稍等。

The first question comes from Mr.

第一個問題來自於先生。

Menon.

梅農。

Please state your Company name followed by your questions.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

It's Janardan Menon from Dresdner Kleinwort.

我是 Dresdner Kleinwort 的 Janardan Menon。

It's a question on a couple of statements you've made.

這是關於你所做的幾個陳述的問題。

One is saying that you have some degree of confidence that your -- you will be bale to have a positive operating margin in coming quarters.

一個是說你有一定程度的信心，你將在未來幾個季度獲得正的營業利潤率。

And on the back of the envelope I calculate that you probably need about EUR450m or so of revenue to reach a break even.

在信封背面，我計算出您可能需要大約 4.5 億歐元左右的收入才能達到收支平衡。

You've also said that 62% of your backlog will ship in the next two quarters, of which about EUR430m is shipping in the current quarter.

您還說過 62% 的積壓訂單將在未來兩個季度發貨，其中約 4.3 億歐元在本季度發貨。

So that leaves you only about EUR213m of revenue from your backlog to be shipped in Q1.

因此，第一季度要發貨的積壓訂單收入僅剩約 2.13 億歐元。

I was just wondering do you have enough visibility on your order intake in Q4 to ensure that you do get the remaining EUR240m at least of revenue -- of orders with shipment dates of Q1'09?

我只是想知道您是否對第四季度的訂單接收情況有足夠的了解，以確保您至少獲得剩餘的 2.4 億歐元收入——發貨日期為 09 年第一季度的訂單？

Eric, you want to take that?

埃里克，你想接受嗎？

Sorry, I was muted and I was starting to talk.

對不起，我被靜音了，我開始說話了。

So I think Peter should take the questions on your break even etc.

所以我認為彼得應該回答有關收支平衡等問題。

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

I can take the question on the bookings.

我可以回答有關預訂的問題。

So, go ahead, Peter.

所以，繼續吧，彼得。

Yes, on your first -- your question, I'd like to refer to our guidance on Q4, which is just above EUR500m sales level with a 4% operating profit.

是的，關於你的第一個問題——你的問題，我想參考我們對第四季度的指導意見，即略高於 5 億歐元的銷售額水平和 4% 的營業利潤。

[We have there between 3 and 5].

[我們有 3 到 5 個]。

So, yes, I mean if you do your math and you include some of the cost reductions that I talked about, I think your assessment is a reasonable one.

所以，是的，我的意思是，如果你算一下，並且包括我談到的一些成本削減，我認為你的評估是合理的。

Okay.

好的。

So you do have enough visibility that you will get that much of orders released?

所以你確實有足夠的知名度，你會得到那麼多的訂單？

I mean you (multiple speakers).

我的意思是你（多個發言者）。

Okay, so --.

可以，然後呢 - 。

That's what Eric will answer.

這就是埃里克將要回答的問題。

(Multiple speakers).

（多個揚聲器）。

Yes.

是的。

At this moment, we -- again, the key message that we're giving to you today is we have a serious uncertainty regarding timing of all these projects which we've been working on with the different partners in the industry.

此時此刻，我們 - 再次，我們今天要給你的關鍵信息是，我們對所有這些項目的時間安排存在嚴重的不確定性，我們一直在與業內不同的合作夥伴合作。

So the timing is the issue.

所以時機是問題。

But the size of the business in 2009 we are comfortable that at least, for instance, Immersion is going to strengthen and probably grow compared to this year.

但我們對 2009 年的業務規模感到滿意，至少，例如，與今年相比，Immersion 將加強並可能增長。

So in Q1 achieving an additional EUR240m, so booked into Q4, is clearly within reach.

因此，在第一季度實現額外的 2.4 億歐元，因此預訂到第四季度，顯然是可以實現的。

Okay, and just a follow up.

好的，只是跟進。

You took in quite a lot of orders from a major US IDM, as per your backlog statements in your presentation.

根據您在演示文稿中的積壓聲明，您從一家主要的美國 IDM 那裡獲得了大量訂單。

How do you see your market share development at that IDM?

您如何看待您在該 IDM 的市場份額發展？

And is it something that makes you confident about 2010 at this point in time, the kind of orders you've got?

這是否讓您對 2010 年這個時間點的訂單充滿信心？

So certainly this is a very large IDM, as you can imagine.

因此，正如您可以想像的那樣，這肯定是一個非常大的 IDM。

And this is an area which we -- a customer that we've said we are developing a potential entry into a very large node which will ramp into 2010.

這是我們的一個領域——一個客戶，我們已經說過我們正在開發一個潛在的入口進入一個非常大的節點，該節點將在 2010 年投入使用。

So the fact that we got, I would say, the first order for this process gives us a confidence that we have a high chance of winning a large part here, yes.

所以我想說，我們得到了這個過程的第一個訂單，這讓我們有信心我們很有可能在這裡贏得很大一部分，是的。

So you will regain market share that you may be losing in 2009?

那麼您將重新奪回您可能在 2009 年失去的市場份額嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Gaudois.

高杜瓦。

Please state your Company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hi there, Nic Gaudois, UBS.

是的，你好，瑞銀的 Nic Gaudois。

Just a first question, coming back on the Immersion probably growing basically next year versus this year.

只是第一個問題，與今年相比，明年回歸 Immersion 可能會基本增長。

And what gives you this level of confidence, Eric?

埃里克，是什麼讓你如此自信？

I guess the two questions in my mind is that, with where we are now, Immersion is partly dependent on capacity requirements, not only shrinks from existing capacity.

我想我心中的兩個問題是，就我們現在的情況而言，Immersion 部分取決於容量需求，而不僅僅是縮減現有容量。

But also, importantly, and some of your reasonably large customers may actually struggle to have a balance sheet to necessarily do the shrinks they would like to do.

但同樣重要的是，您的一些相當大的客戶實際上可能很難擁有資產負債表來必然進行他們想做的收縮。

And, in other words, might actually see some delay in their shrinks road map.

而且，換句話說，他們的收縮路線圖實際上可能會出現一些延遲。

So maybe if you could help us a little bit on that, it would be useful.

所以也許如果你能在這方面幫助我們一點，那將會很有用。

And I've got a more specific follow up.

我有更具體的跟進。

Yes.

是的。

The reason why we believe that there is growth in Immersion next year is because the numbers of engines where you need Immersions is much bigger than -- in 2009 than it is in 2008.

我們之所以相信 Immersion 明年會有所增長，是因為您需要 Immersion 的引擎數量比 2009 年比 2008 年要多得多。

So you are right to say, however, if 2009 is economically challenging these engines will be tamed a bit, but there are so many of them that we expect this to -- the numbers of opportunities to win against the, I would say, the difficult economic situation.

所以你說得對，但是，如果 2009 年在經濟上具有挑戰性，那麼這些引擎將被馴服一點，但我們希望它們有很多 - 贏得機會的數量，我會說，困難的經濟形勢。

So let me give you more color.

所以讓我給你更多的顏色。

Obviously, if you talk about the first tier DRAM customers, mainly in Korea, they have to run the new technologies in DRAM.

顯然，如果你談論一線 DRAM 客戶，主要在韓國，他們必須在 DRAM 中運行新技術。

And at this moment it is a key set of projects to move beyond 5x in first tier DRAM.

目前，在第一層 DRAM 中超越 5 倍是一組關鍵項目。

So that's an engine that we did not expect, and it somehow is triggered by the recession, the need to in fact show even faster transitions.

所以這是一個我們沒想到的引擎，它在某種程度上是由經濟衰退引發的，實際上需要顯示更快的過渡。

The second set of customers, which you could call -- you can call second tier DRAMS, those guys have not invested anything in Immersion this year, in particular because of the difficulty of accessing cash, as Peter say, as you say.

第二組客戶，你可以稱之為 - 你可以稱之為二線 DRAMS，這些人今年沒有在 Immersion 上投資任何東西，特別是因為難以獲得現金，正如彼得所說，正如你所說。

But it is now vital for them to do so because they cannot let the first tier take two years ahead of them and potentially even get into another node while they haven't yet transitioned at all into Immersion.

但現在對他們來說這樣做至關重要，因為他們不能讓第一層比他們提前兩年，甚至可能在他們還沒有過渡到 Immersion 時就進入另一個節點。

So are they going to get cash?

那麼他們會得到現金嗎？

Well, you may have heard in Japan that Peter has now secured a $1.7b or $1.6b of cash from a set of banks here.

好吧，您可能在日本聽說過 Peter 現在已經從這裡的一組銀行獲得了 $1.7b 或 $1.6b 的現金。

So this, I think, is resolved.

所以我認為這個問題已經解決了。

You have heard Micron has been securing cash with its partner in Taiwan, Nanya, and they have also resolved the strategic questions about where they are going to put all those tools.

你聽說過美光一直在與台灣的合作夥伴 Nanya 取得現金，他們還解決了關於將所有這些工具放在哪裡的戰略問題。

As you have heard, they have now at last taken a decision on the acquiring of the Inotera share they didn't own, and that gives them a significant springboard.

正如你所聽到的，他們現在終於決定收購他們不擁有的華亞科技股份，這給了他們一個重要的跳板。

By the way, as you know, we have 100% share at Inotera at this moment, so we're very satisfied with this development.

順便說一句，如你所知，目前我們在華亞科技擁有100%的股份，所以我們對這一發展非常滿意。

And, again, this environment, Nanya, Inotera and Micron has no Immersion of volume, I would say, at this moment and these are leaders in the -- in what they do and they have secured cash.

而且，在這種環境下，Nanya、Inotera 和 Micron 沒有沉浸在數量上，我想說，此時此刻，這些都是領導者——在他們所做的事情上，他們已經獲得了現金。

So you know that something is cooking.

所以你知道有東西在煮。

You're talking about Qimonda.

你說的是奇夢達。

Qimonda is obviously in a weak environment at this moment.

奇夢達此時顯然處於弱勢環境。

They are looking at their options in terms of partnership, but they just got $350m of cash due to the sale of Inotera.

他們正在考慮合作夥伴關係的選擇，但由於出售 Inotera，他們只獲得了 3.5 億美元的現金。

And they have potentially already got some Immersion tools from us at this moment and the question is how much in fact -- how many tools can they really afford?

他們現在可能已經從我們這裡得到了一些 Immersion 工具，問題是實際上有多少——他們真正買得起多少工具？

But they have to move.

但他們必須搬家。

So you've got that segment which, I would add, will include one more -- two more Taiwanese who are being financed by first tier players so that, I would say, will give us a second engine.

所以你有那個部分，我想補充一點，將包括另外兩個由一線玩家資助的台灣人，這樣，我想說，這將為我們提供第二個引擎。

And the third engine is the Logic engine.

第三個引擎是邏輯引擎。

You've obviously -- in fact, Janardan mentioned the significant order of Immersion tools that we received from this American IDM, and that will be shipped into next year.

你顯然 - 事實上，Janardan 提到了我們從這個美國 IDM 收到的大量 Immersion 工具訂單，這些工具將在明年發貨。

And you have -- you can guess that we are shipping effectively to the companies doing what is now called computational scaling.

你已經 - 你可以猜到我們正在有效地向公司提供現在所謂的計算擴展。

It's another big word to say lots of Immersion tools.

說很多 Immersion 工具是另一個大詞。

And that has to start, and will start, in Q1 and Q2 of next year.

這必須在明年的第一季度和第二季度開始，並將開始。

You add to this Foundry which, at this very moment, is limited by end demand.

您添加到這個鑄造廠，此時此刻，它受到最終需求的限制。

But, as you know, this is -- 2009 is a year of transition to Immersion and I estimated the volume to be one tool a month.

但是，如您所知，這是 - 2009 年是向 Immersion 過渡的一年，我估計數量為每月一個工具。

I don't think we will be very far from this.

我認為我們離這不會很遠。

Maybe I make a mistake in the Q1 timeframe again, because my timing may be impacted by the recession.

也許我在第一季度的時間框架上又犯了一個錯誤，因為我的時間安排可能受到經濟衰退的影響。

So all together, if you sum these opportunities, you should be above year 2009.

所以總的來說，如果你把這些機會加起來，你應該在 2009 年以上。

Thanks.

謝謝。

[2010].

[2010].

Great.

偉大的。

That's very comprehensive.

這是非常全面的。

Now on more of a detailed question, if we look at the revenues you got from Immersion in the quarter divided by the number of tools shipped, we get to an ASP of about EUR28.5m.

現在關於更詳細的問題，如果我們看一下本季度您從 Immersion 獲得的收入除以出貨的工具數量，我們得到的平均售價約為 2850 萬歐元。

That's down from EUR29.3m recorded before [in first year recorded before that].

這低於之前記錄的 2930 萬歐元 [在此之前記錄的第一年]。

Is there anything mix related which explains that?

有什麼混合相關的東西可以解釋嗎？

And how should we look at the ASPs next year with the introduction, of course, of the 1950?

當然，隨著 1950 年的推出，我們應該如何看待明年的 ASP？

Yes.

是的。

So, at this moment, one of the reasons of ASP deterioration, I would say in Immersion, would be mixed with Used Tool, because we are starting to have a fairly interesting and lucrative Used Tool business.

因此，目前，ASP 惡化的原因之一，我會在 Immersion 中說，與二手工具混合在一起，因為我們開始擁有相當有趣且有利可圖的二手工具業務。

The other part is that we are now, I would say, customizing some of the tools for different nodes.

另一部分是，我想說，我們現在正在為不同的節點定制一些工具。

And you know that in the Logic arena they don't make full use of the 1.35NA lens and we are offering some special price for degraded lenses, again, to maintain the margin.

你知道在邏輯領域，他們沒有充分利用 1.35NA 鏡頭，我們再次為退化鏡頭提供一些特價，以保持利潤。

So ASP-wise it would be natural to cover now a bigger range, a bigger mix of products, Used plus, I would say, customized Logic products, and then 1950s which cost more than 30.

因此，從 ASP 的角度來看，現在很自然地涵蓋了更大範圍、更大的產品組合，二手加上我想說的定制邏輯產品，然後是 1950 年代的產品，價格超過 30 美元。

And, with this, come up with, depending on the quarter, an ASP which will be more or less high.

並且，有了這個，根據季度的不同，提出一個或多或少高的平均售價。

But, again, this is done so that we would try to maintain the margin.

但是，再次這樣做是為了讓我們盡量保持利潤率。

Although the margin is of course under pressure, not so much because of that, but because of the overall situation where, if you have a minimum demand, of course, the customers -- it's a customer-driven market more than a supplier-driven market, obviously.

雖然利潤率當然受到壓力，但不是因為這個，而是因為總體情況，如果你有最低需求，當然，客戶 - 這是一個客戶驅動的市場，而不是供應商驅動的市場市場，顯然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Schafer.

謝弗。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, thanks a lot.

是的，非常感謝。

It's Goldman Sachs.

是高盛。

I wanted to ask about really more the costs side of the equation.

我想問更多關於等式的成本方面的問題。

I think you mentioned, Peter, that perhaps you could expect some type of further cost efficiencies.

彼得，我想你提到過，也許你可以期待某種類型的進一步成本效率。

I think you're more talking about gross margin.

我認為你更多的是在談論毛利率。

But if you were to find out that perhaps the cycle, as we see it today, is lasting around current levels or low levels for some time, how much aggressiveness could you show on the operating expense side?

但是，如果您發現也許正如我們今天所看到的那樣，這個週期會在當前水平或低水平附近持續一段時間，那麼您可以在運營費用方面表現出多大的進取心？

Yes.

是的。

To give you an indication we -- in fact, we currently still have 20% of the workforce on contract, so that's called -- that's basically contracted activities.

為了向您表明我們 - 事實上，我們目前仍有 20% 的合同員工，所以這就是所謂的 - 這基本上是合同活動。

So that is, in principle, if it lasts longer we need to go to lower business volume levels.

因此，原則上，如果持續時間更長，我們需要降低業務量水平。

That is the first thing where we can go.

這是我們可以去的第一件事。

We have, in SG&A, of course we are [training] but we are close to 20% in two quarters, so that is where we probably could do a few million.

我們有，在 SG&A 中，當然我們正在 [training] 但我們在兩個季度內接近 20%，所以我們可能會做幾百萬。

But that's not going to add a major amount of money to the bottom line.

但這不會為底線增加大量資金。

In the supply chain management, we are -- we have started since the beginning of the year quite an extensive and comprehensive program on reducing cost.

在供應鏈管理方面，我們 - 我們從今年年初開始就降低成本開展了相當廣泛和全面的計劃。

So that's now running for almost eight months.

所以現在已經運行了將近八個月。

We will see the first benefits of that coming in in the first quarter of next year.

我們將在明年第一季度看到第一批好處。

So that's basically the cost of goods, what we basically purchase.

所以這基本上就是商品成本，我們基本上購買的商品。

And so that's where a level of flexibility is.

這就是一定程度的靈活性所在。

And we have about 50% of our R&D cost is flexible.

我們有大約 50% 的研發成本是靈活的。

But like I said, currently, and what Eric also said on the expectation of our Immersion business next year, we do not anticipate to make major cuts in our R&D program.

但正如我所說，目前，以及 Eric 也對明年我們的 Immersion 業務的預期所說的那樣，我們預計不會大幅削減我們的研發計劃。

So, although we do have that flexibility, we are not planning to basically use it as of today.

所以，雖然我們確實有這種靈活性，但我們不打算從今天開始基本上使用它。

But it -- and it means that it is there.

但它——這意味著它就在那裡。

Understood.

明白了。

I mean (multiple speakers).

我的意思是（多個揚聲器）。

So, if we would see a major prolonged downturn in the industry and our customers would be cutting their R&D, or at least pushing their R&D programs back because they need to do something, we will be doing the same.

因此，如果我們看到該行業出現嚴重的長期低迷，而我們的客戶將削減他們的研發，或者至少因為他們需要做某事而推遲他們的研發計劃，我們也會這樣做。

And we will be able to adjust our cost levels.

我們將能夠調整我們的成本水平。

So on the operating expense side in the factory we still have about a 20% in the workforce, we have extensive and comprehensive cost reduction programs in the supply chain and we still have that famous 50% flex in R&D, which is probably the last item we will ever touch.

因此，在工廠的運營費用方面，我們仍然有大約 20% 的勞動力，我們在供應鏈中有廣泛而全面的成本削減計劃，我們在研發方面仍然有著名的 50% 彈性，這可能是最後一項我們將永遠觸摸。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And my second question -- and I realize you don't want to talk about customer-specific projects, but AMD obviously got a very significant outside investment.

我的第二個問題——我知道你不想談論特定於客戶的項目，但 AMD 顯然獲得了非常重要的外部投資。

And it looks as if really is going to be some type of additional foundry player in the field, which is changing the dynamics a little bit.

看起來好像真的會成為該領域的某種額外代工參與者，這正在一點點改變動態。

When you look at that does that become, or when would that conceivably become impactful, given that, historically of course, you've had a pretty tight relationship with AMD?

當你看到它會成為，或者什麼時候可以想像它會變得有影響力，當然，從歷史上看，你與 AMD 有著非常緊密的關係？

Eric, you want to take that?

埃里克，你想接受嗎？

Yes, certainly.

是的，當然了。

I think the first news that we have to take, which is a good news, is that AMD will be able to do more in their business before we talk about foundry.

我認為我們必須接受的第一個消息，這是一個好消息，是在我們談論代工之前，AMD 將能夠在他們的業務中做更多的事情。

So that is the first good news and this is part of my optimism about 2009.

所以這是第一個好消息，這是我對 2009 年的樂觀態度的一部分。

They clearly will have to build an Immersion capacity for next year for their own needs.

很明顯，他們必須在明年為自己的需要建立沉浸式能力。

And that's again, as I say, a fairly good business.

正如我所說，這又是一項相當不錯的業務。

I will not comment about whether their coming into the foundry business will develop an opportunity.

我不會評論他們進入代工業務是否會發展機會。

It's, first, a question about what it is, what's their business model, what product are they going to deliver, what's the alliances that they are going to create to get some customers, etc., etc.

首先，這是一個關於它是什麼的問題，他們的商業模式是什麼，他們將提供什麼產品，他們將建立什麼樣的聯盟來獲得一些客戶等等。

This, again, at this moment I cannot comment.

同樣，此時此刻我無法發表評論。

I would say the way we simulate the business for us is to say that to try to see -- to make a scenario as to how much silicon will be consumed, and then we do -- would not be concerned about who manufactured the silicon so, in other terms, if AMD takes market share out of TSMC or vice versa, we probably will be very much not impacted.

我想說的是，我們為我們模擬業務的方式是說，嘗試查看 - 設想將消耗多少矽，然後我們這樣做 - 不會關心誰製造了矽，所以，換句話說，如果 AMD 從台積電手中搶走市場份額，反之亦然，我們可能不會受到太大影響。

We will supply either player.

我們將提供任一播放器。

So at this moment we are very satisfied about AMD itself capable of investing in their future and developing a good technology, a good new process for the raw materials.

所以此時此刻，我們對 AMD 本身能夠投資於他們的未來並開發一項好的技術，一種好的原材料新工藝感到非常滿意。

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Timothy Arcuri.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Mr.

先生。

Arcuri, your line is open.

Arcuri，你的線路開通了。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you, Citi, couple of things.

謝謝你，花旗，幾件事。

First of all, if I take and I look at the number of litho systems that you're shipping relative to the number of units being produced out there, and if I do some normalization for some wafer sizes and some increases in throughput on the tools, you see that you're shipping roughly 50% less systems per chip unit being produced than even in the big downturn during '01.

首先，如果我看一下你們運送的光刻系統的數量相對於那裡生產的單位數量，如果我對一些晶圓尺寸進行一些標準化，並增加一些工具的吞吐量，你會發現即使在 01 年的大蕭條時期，你生產的每個芯片單元的系統出貨量也減少了大約 50%。

So I'm wondering, a, if that would argue that there's going to be a pretty robust snap back here off the bottom.

所以我想知道，a，這是否會證明這裡會出現非常強勁的反彈。

But, b, I'm wondering -- part of that's obviously cyclical, but is any of that secular in that there just is not going to be the same number of systems ordered per unit even after you make all those adjustments because of customer consolidation, or some secular issue?

但是，b，我想知道——其中一部分顯然是周期性的，但是否存在任何長期性，因為即使您因客戶整合而做出所有這些調整後，每單位訂購的系統數量也不會相同，還是一些世俗問題？

Or do you, in fact, think that it's cyclical and that there's going to be a huge recovery off the bottom as a result?

或者，事實上，您是否認為這是周期性的，結果會出現巨大的反彈？

In fact, we vote for the snap back.

事實上，我們投票支持快速恢復。

We have a simulation system, as you know, which so far has been pretty good at telling us when we have over-capacity or under-capacity.

如您所知，我們有一個模擬系統，到目前為止，它非常擅長告訴我們產能過剩或產能不足的情況。

And that our system basically says that in view of the consistent shrink road map, if the customer uses it that there's is going to be a need for machines at a much, much higher rate.

而且我們的系統基本上說，鑑於一致的收縮路線圖，如果客戶使用它，那麼將需要以更高的速度使用機器。

In particular because you are going to start hitting this correction of lack of capacity, I would say, and the need for double patterning which multiply the machine to two -- by two.

特別是因為你將開始糾正這種能力不足的問題，我會說，以及需要將機器乘以二的雙重圖案 - 乘以二。

And the fact that you may have heard the industry starting to be worried that shrinking will create yield issues.

事實上，您可能已經聽說業界開始擔心縮小會產生良率問題。

It's going to be pretty hard to get the same amount of dies out of each of the wafers.

從每個晶圓中獲得相同數量的芯片將非常困難。

And that also goes in the favor of having more tools.

這也有利於擁有更多工具。

So the secular curve is still showing us an opportunity to reach our famous EUR5b sales.

因此，長期曲線仍然向我們展示了實現我們著名的 5b 歐元銷售額的機會。

But at this moment I know, in view of the fear of recession, we are now talking about a break even and levels of EUR2b or EUR2.5b or EUR3b.

但此刻我知道，鑑於對經濟衰退的恐懼，我們現在談論的是收支平衡和 2b 歐元或 2.5b 歐元或 3b 歐元的水平。

But the numbers -- the theoretical number is still towards EUR5b within the next two to three years from now.

但數字——從現在起的未來兩到三年內，理論數字仍接近 5b 歐元。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then, I guess, just as a follow up, pretty much everybody on the sell side seems to be very, very negative on your stock.

然後，我想，作為後續行動，幾乎所有賣方的人似乎都對你的股票非常、非常負面。

And yet, if this is as bad as it gets, it's -- you're probably not going to lose money.

然而，如果情況變得如此糟糕，那是——你可能不會賠錢。

If you do, you obviously wouldn't lose very much.

如果你這樣做，你顯然不會損失太多。

So you sitting on this fairly significant cash balance.

所以你坐擁相當可觀的現金餘額。

So I'm wondering how do you think about a buy back from here, given how negative the street is, given that the stock doesn't seem to react any more to bad news?

所以我想知道你如何考慮從這裡回購，考慮到這條街有多消極，考慮到股票似乎不再對壞消息做出任何反應？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I have to repeat the answer that we gave three months ago.

我必須重複我們三個月前給出的答案。

We have a clear financial policy that says if the cash balance of the Company goes outside the bandwidth that we have given, then that excess cash will be returned to the shareholders.

我們有明確的財務政策，規定如果公司的現金餘額超出我們提供的帶寬，那麼多餘的現金將返還給股東。

It's nothing new.

這不是什麼新鮮事。

So that will happen.

所以那會發生。

Now, the issue is that can we do regular share buy backs.

現在，問題是我們能否定期回購股票。

I said it last time also, we're still -- from a different withholding tax point of view we are not allowed to do regular share buy backs, so we need to do that through a synthetic structure like we had in 2007, which actually is surrounded with a lot of logistical and legal issues that you don't want to do that for a small number.

我上次也說過，我們仍然——從不同的預扣稅角度來看，我們不允許進行定期的股票回購，所以我們需要通過像 2007 年那樣的綜合結構來做到這一點，這實際上周圍有很多後勤和法律問題，您不想為少數人這樣做。

So if we're outside the bandwidth of our cash balance, and it's a reasonable sized number, then we could do this same level of synthetic buy back as we did last year and we will do so.

因此，如果我們超出了現金餘額的帶寬，並且這是一個合理的數字，那麼我們可以像去年那樣進行同樣水平的合成回購，我們會這樣做。

But also under the current circumstances it is important to stay within our financial parameters as we have clearly outlined to the market and to the rating agencies, and basically to ourselves and to the shareholders.

但在當前情況下，重要的是要保持在我們已向市場和評級機構明確概述的財務參數範圍內，基本上是對我們自己和股東。

So, currently, we stay within that and we stick to the quoted policy.

所以，目前，我們保持在那個範圍內，我們堅持引用的政策。

Okay, thanks, Peter.

好的，謝謝，彼得。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

[Maurice Dolio].

[莫里斯·多里奧]。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

My question has been asked and answered.

我的問題已被提出並得到回答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Ben Pang.

本龐。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Caris and Company.

卡里斯公司。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你提出我的問題。

Regarding your engine number one for revenue driver, how many DRAM companies do you expect are moving to the 5x Immersion lithography?

關於收入驅動因素的第一引擎，您預計有多少 DRAM 公司正在轉向 5x 浸沒式光刻技術？

And could you also provide some color on 4x?

你也可以在 4x 上提供一些顏色嗎？

And that's for 2009.

這是 2009 年的情況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Eric?

埃里克？

I think the difficulty of 4x is such that I would only see one company going aggressive for it and another one following six months later.

我認為 4 倍的難度是如此之大，以至於我只會看到一家公司為此積極進取，而另一家則在六個月後緊隨其後。

Regarding 5x, everyone.

關於5x，大家。

Could you give the number around that?

你能給出周圍的數字嗎？

How many are not at Immersion in 2008 but are going to do Immersion in 2009?

有多少人沒有參加 2008 年的 Immersion，但會在 2009 年參加 Immersion？

Again, some of them are in alliances so it's pretty complicated, but I could give you the names.

同樣，其中一些是聯盟，所以這很複雜，但我可以給你名字。

I don't think it's a secret to say that Micron and Nanya, Inotera as an overall alliance will have to go through this, so that's basically three players.

我不認為說美光和南亞是秘密，華亞作為一個整體聯盟必須經歷這個，所以基本上是三個玩家。

At this moment, you know that [Cromos] is working on going into this, so that's one.

此刻，你知道 [Cromos] 正在努力進入這個領域，所以就是這樣。

Winbond, doing the same.

華邦，也是如此。

[Keymondi] is already in prototyping so will need to run production, so that's also a clear one.

[Keymondi] 已經在製作原型，因此需要進行生產，所以這也是一個明確的問題。

And the first tier obviously being Hynix and Samsung, they're already in business.

第一梯隊顯然是海力士和三星，他們已經開始營業了。

Did I forget somebody?

我忘了一個人嗎？

No that's FLASH, DRAM, to [give] DRAM, yes.

不，那是閃存、DRAM，[給] DRAM，是的。

So that means every one of them.

所以這意味著他們每個人。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Gunnar Plagge.

貢納普拉格。

Please state you company names followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hello, good afternoon, it's Gunnar Plagge at Nomura.

是的，你好，下午好，我是野村的 Gunnar Plagge。

You talk a lot about supplier based efficiency programs, and I think you said that they helped in Q3 to achieve the 38% gross margin.

你經常談論基於供應商的效率計劃，我想你說過他們在第三季度幫助實現了 38% 的毛利率。

So could you talk a little bit about how these programs work and how much further scope we can expect?

那麼，您能否談談這些計劃的運作方式以及我們可以期待的進一步範圍？

Yes.

是的。

The programs are not designed around raw cost cutting and say, we need 5% less or 10% less.

這些計劃並不是圍繞削減原始成本而設計的，而是說，我們需要減少 5% 或 10%。

It is really the coordination between the supply, our R&D group, and the factory organization, in looking at the designs, looking at the way that they source their products and see where areas are that we can take cost out.

這實際上是供應商、我們的研發團隊和工廠組織之間的協調，在研究設計、研究他們採購產品的方式以及我們可以在哪些領域降低成本。

So it's quite an extensive and integral program that we have with R&D, our system engineering group and the factory and, of course, the purchasing group.

因此，這是我們與研發部門、我們的系統工程團隊和工廠，當然還有採購團隊一起制定的一個相當廣泛和完整的計劃。

And that is depending on what it is, whether it's a mature module, which we have for a couple of year where of course the cost reduction capabilities are not that large.

這取決於它是什麼，它是否是一個成熟的模塊，我們已經有幾年了，當然降低成本的能力不是那麼大。

You talk about a couple of percent, 4% 5%, 6%, to a, let's say, more new technologies where we have new modules where the cost reductions can add up to between 10% and 20%.

你談論的是幾個百分點，4% 5%，6%，比方說，更多的新技術，我們有新的模塊，成本降低可以加起來在 10% 到 20% 之間。

So it is very difficult to give you an overall number.

所以很難給你一個總數。

It's a very detailed model that we have and basically covering the whole machine.

這是我們擁有的非常詳細的模型，基本上涵蓋了整個機器。

But we have had cost reduction targets over the last year of about 10% on average, which is actually something that we, of course, strive to do every year.

但我們在過去一年制定了平均約 10% 的成本削減目標，這實際上是我們每年都在努力做到的事情。

But, like I said, when we have new introduction, new module introductions, it is easier to get cost out than when you try to get costs out of a more mature model that we already have for years.

但是，就像我說的那樣，當我們有新的介紹，新的模塊介紹時，比你試圖從我們已經擁有多年的更成熟的模型中獲得成本更容易獲得成本。

Same is true for the lens with Carl Zeiss.

卡爾蔡司的鏡頭也是如此。

We're almost two companies, one business.

我們幾乎是兩家公司，一家公司。

We're almost fully integrated.

我們幾乎完全融合了。

And, there, we are constantly looking for cost reduction opportunities because the lenses in our most advanced tools are close to 50% of total cost of the tool.

而且，我們一直在尋找降低成本的機會，因為我們最先進工具中的鏡片接近工具總成本的 50%。

So it's pretty granular.

所以它非常精細。

That's why difficulty to give you as a kind of higher-level overview of what it's going to be but, clearly, it's focusing on the lens and the newest modules.

這就是為什麼很難給你一個更高層次的概述，但很明顯，它專注於鏡頭和最新的模塊。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

As a follow up, could you give an update on the Elpida account situation?

作為後續，您能否介紹一下Elpida帳戶的最新情況？

Yes.

是的。

In fact, it's very important that the you ask the question.

事實上，你問這個問題是非常重要的。

I think I forgot to mention it.

我想我忘了提它。

Elpida power chip, obviously, is one of the DRAM vendors who are driving into 5x.

Elpida power chip 顯然是推動 5x 發展的 DRAM 供應商之一。

So, as you know, they publicly are also driving shrink of 6X, but they are also ramping 5x for next year.

所以，如你所知，他們公開也在推動 6 倍的收縮，但明年他們也將增加 5 倍。

So, sorry for having forgotten them.

所以，很抱歉忘記了他們。

The fact that I am in Tokyo means that I can report that we're making positive progress.

我在東京這一事實意味著我可以報告我們正在取得積極進展。

As you know, we are being evaluated for 5x for Elpida power chip and the progress are positive, going in the right direction in terms of the recreation of Elpida power chip about the performance of the machine.

如您所知，我們正在對 Elpida 電源芯片進行 5 倍的評估，並且進展是積極的，在 Elpida 電源芯片關於機器性能的重建方面朝著正確的方向前進。

So at this moment I cannot do more -- say more than that, except that reporting good progress.

所以此時此刻我不能做更多的事情——只能說這麼多，除了報告良好的進展。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自先生。

Lee Simpson.

李·辛普森。

Please state name followed by your question.

請在您的問題後註明姓名。

Hi everyone, it's Lee Simpson from Jeffries.

大家好，我是 Jeffries 的 Lee Simpson。

Maybe I could just ask a quick over-arching question on pricing.

也許我可以問一個關於定價的快速總體問題。

If this uncertainty that we're seeing, the downturn as you call it, is going to set to continue, if there's any sort of consolidation or alliance rationalization and we see an extra pause in CapEx, and you guys are also -- seem to be quite fixed on where your R&D levels can go to at least on just efficiency gains, how far back can ASML cut on these unusual pricing that you could do to help customers?

如果我們看到的這種不確定性，即你們所說的經濟低迷，將繼續下去，如果有任何形式的整合或聯盟合理化，我們會看到資本支出的額外暫停，你們也——似乎非常確定您的研發水平至少可以提高效率，ASML 可以將這些不尋常的定價降低多長時間才能幫助客戶？

What's the sort of acceptable levels for you guys going into 2009?

你們進入 2009 年的可接受水平是多少？

There is no acceptable level to sell a product below the value.

銷售低於價值的產品是不可接受的。

So the whole game in discussion with customers, even under pressure, is to compare our value to our competitors' value.

因此，即使在壓力下，與客戶討論的整個遊戲也是將我們的價值與競爭對手的價值進行比較。

At this moment the players, that is, Nikon, Canon and ourselves, are clearly fighting the war of specifications.

此刻的玩家，也就是尼康、佳能和我們自己，分明是在打規格之戰。

It does happen, however, that when we get into some non-critical layer we are equivalent in terms of performance.

然而，確實發生了當我們進入某個非關鍵層時我們在性能方面是等效的。

And on non-critical we hunger, make sure to be more aggressive than in the normal situation.

並且在非關鍵的我們飢餓時，確保比正常情況下更具侵略性。

So that is where I was telling you about the price pressure.

這就是我告訴你價格壓力的地方。

Again, we are protected by the value of the critical layer.

同樣，我們受到關鍵層價值的保護。

But it is true that we may be losing a certain numbers of points of margin, but never to a level where we would at this moment consider this absolutely ridiculous.

但我們確實可能會損失一定數量的保證金點，但絕不會達到我們目前認為這絕對荒謬的程度。

Yes.

是的。

It was interesting the continued use of Used Tools in Immersion.

在 Immersion 中繼續使用舊工具很有趣。

We saw it in 2Q.

我們在第二季度看到了它。

We're seeing it again in 3Q, I think with foundries taking it this time.

我們在第三季度再次看到它，我認為這次是鑄造廠。

Is this an interesting development we should be mindful of as far as ASPs into next year?

就明年的 ASP 而言，這是我們應該注意的有趣發展嗎？

Perhaps, again, a helping hand from ASML to its customer base?

也許，ASML 再次向其客戶群伸出了援助之手？

And can you talk us through how that might continue?

你能告訴我們這可能會如何繼續下去嗎？

Yes it is -- as you know, there are two things.

是的——如您所知，有兩件事。

One is, the used model is a good model for ASML, has worked for a long time.

一是，使用的模型是 ASML 的一個很好的模型，已經工作了很長時間。

We are shipping about 10 Used Tool per quarter.

我們每季度運送約 10 個二手工具。

Some goes to semiconductors, some goes to a related type industry.

有些去了半導體，有些去了相關行業。

We make money on the refurbishment of those machines so it's an [appropriate] margin.

我們通過翻新這些機器賺錢，所以這是一個[適當的]利潤率。

And we solve a problem at the customers.

我們解決了客戶的問題。

Immersion has become an opportunity because you have different segments with different needs.

沉浸已成為一個機會，因為您有不同的細分市場和不同的需求。

Very obviously, FLASH is driving Immersion to its max, DRAM next and Logic next.

很明顯，FLASH 正在將 Immersion 推向極致，其次是 DRAM，其次是 Logic。

So we're creating opportunities for Logic to buy, I would say, older type machines.

因此，我們正在為 Logic 創造購買舊型號機器的機會。

And we -- when that was discovered with foundry we were very happy to oblige.

而我們 - 當鑄造廠發現這一點時，我們非常樂意提供幫助。

Because it's not so much a machine that you lose, it's a machine that you place differently.

因為與其說你失去了一台機器，不如說它是一台你放置不同位置的機器。

So, in other terms, you buy back a machine with only two to three years of usage in a FLASH environment or a DRAM environment, you replace this machine with the latest and greatest, and you refurbish and sell to the foundry business.

所以，換句話說，你買回一台在 FLASH 環境或 DRAM 環境下只使用了兩到三年的機器，你用最新最好的機器替換這台機器，然後你翻新並賣給代工企業。

So it's not like you lose a machine.

所以這不像是您丟失了一台機器。

In fact, you sell the big machine were it's most needed.

事實上，您會在最需要的時候出售大型機器。

And that, by the way, is another system to avoid margin erosion.

順便說一下，這是另一個避免利潤侵蝕的系統。

Perfect.

完美的。

And it's also, on the top, don't think that there's an abundance of supply on those tools.

而且，最重要的是，不要認為這些工具的供應充足。

We can do it from time to time, but it doesn't mean that everybody coming by wanting a new 1700 that the 1700 is indeed available.

我們有時可以這樣做，但這並不意味著每個人都想要一個新的 1700，1700 確實可用。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe just one quick final question on the financial malaise.

也許只是關於財務問題的最後一個快速問題。

We're hearing now that shipping is down 7% q on q.

我們現在聽說出貨量比上季度下降了 7%。

Distribution could be an issue over the next months.

分配可能是未來幾個月的一個問題。

I just wonder if there's anything in 4Q, given line of credits and so forth amongst -- being an issue in some of the Chinese ports, albeit [at the] commodities just now, do we see any legal resilience in your documentation that makes you immune to any of these issues of line of credit and the distribution that we're seeing?

我只是想知道第四季度是否有任何問題，考慮到信用額度等等——這是一些中國港口的問題，儘管 [at the] 商品只是現在，我們是否看到你的文件中有任何法律彈性讓你不受我們所看到的任何這些信用額度和分配問題的影響？

No, not specifically.

不，不具體。

I must also say I'm a bit puzzled about your question because it's not something that is currently on our table.

我還必須說我對你的問題有點困惑，因為我們目前沒有討論這個問題。

It might be that we're not seeing something, but at least it hasn't been bought to my attention.

可能是我們沒有看到某些東西，但至少它還沒有引起我的注意。

Right.

正確的。

You're aware that a lot a ports are not actually shipping a lot of resource at this time, given that some people aren't accepting other companies' lines of credit.

你知道很多港口此時實際上並沒有運送大量資源，因為有些人不接受其他公司的信用額度。

And I'm sure -- I'm not being specific about your line of credit, for instance, but maybe the distributors that you use, for instance, is any of this --?

我敢肯定——例如，我並沒有具體說明你的信用額度，但也許你使用的分銷商是——？

We don't use distributors.

我們不使用分銷商。

We do direct sales.

我們做直銷。

So we haven't seen this.

所以我們還沒有看到這個。

Okay.

好的。

Is this -- when you say port, you mean airports?

這是——當你說港口時，你指的是機場嗎？

Yes, well, harbors and such like.

是的，好吧，港口之類的。

We don't use harbors.

我們不使用港口。

We fly the machines.

我們駕駛機器。

Okay.

好的。

All right, great, thanks.

好的，很好，謝謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Didier Scemama.

迪迪埃·施瑪瑪。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Good afternoon, gentlemen.

下午好，先生們。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Actually, my first question is on DRAM.

實際上，我的第一個問題是關於 DRAM。

If I look at the balance sheet of Tier 3 DRAM vendors, and I know you've mentioned that some of them are going to move to the 5x node because they have to.

如果我查看第 3 層 DRAM 供應商的資產負債表，我知道您已經提到其中一些供應商將遷移到 5x 節點，因為他們必須這樣做。

And if I look also at the spot, even today down another 5%, it looks like the elasticity of DRAM pricing is not helping any more.

如果我也看一下現貨，即使今天又下跌了 5%，看起來 DRAM 定價的彈性似乎不再有幫助。

And I think those guys -- those Tier 3 DRAM guys are pretty reliant on, basically, the spot market.

而且我認為那些人 - 那些 Tier 3 DRAM 人基本上非常依賴現貨市場。

So I'm just wondering what your thoughts are on that.

所以我只是想知道你對此有何看法。

And whether those guys are not going to run into so much financial difficulty that really the only way out is a major consolidation, which eventually would be good for the DRAM market but less good for ASML?

那些人是否不會遇到如此多的財務困難，以至於真正唯一的出路就是大規模整合，這最終對 DRAM 市場有利，但對 ASML 不利？

First of all, you are correct, the pressure is such on the profitability at every level that if they continue like this not all of them can survive.

首先，你是對的，各個層面的盈利能力都面臨巨大壓力，如果他們繼續這樣下去，並不是所有人都能生存下來。

I think they would all tell you this, with a question mark for you to answer as to who are the weaker ones and who are the ones who will sustain this and, in fact, benefit from this consolidation.

我想他們都會告訴你這一點，並帶上問號讓你回答誰是弱者，誰將維持這一點，事實上，從這種整合中受益。

Is it a problem for ASML?

ASML 有問題嗎？

I would not think so.

我不這麼認為。

This is a business where these companies, all of them, are extremely efficient in terms of CapEx usage.

在這個行業中，這些公司在資本支出的使用方面都非常高效。

So if you sell to one account or two accounts, if the one account is two times bigger than the two accounts [or whatever], it's the same need, it's the same amount of square meters of silicon with the same machine.

所以如果你賣給一個或兩個賬戶，如果一個賬戶比兩個賬戶大兩倍[或其他]，它是相同的需求，它是同一台機器的相同數量的矽平方米。

So if you're referring to customer power, customer power is as good as competitor power, I would guess.

所以如果你指的是客戶力量，我猜客戶力量和競爭對手力量一樣好。

And at this moment we'll not see a difference between the current situation, where we have, I would say, six customers in DRAM, and if we would have five or even four.

此時此刻，我們不會看到當前情況有什麼不同，我想說，我們有六個 DRAM 客戶，如果我們有五個甚至四個。

The fight between six or four, in terms of what you call customer power, is definitely the same.

六四之間的較量，就你所謂的客戶力而言，肯定是一樣的。

It's really much depend on the fight that we have with our competitors.

這在很大程度上取決於我們與競爭對手的鬥爭。

And, as I said, at this moment the fight is definitely on spec, it's particularly in DRAM, by the way, much more than in any segment, so we are able to sustain this without a detrimental price war.

而且，正如我所說，目前這場戰鬥肯定是在規格上，順便說一句，特別是在 DRAM 領域，比任何領域都多得多，所以我們能夠在沒有有害的價格戰的情況下維持這一點。

And I'd like to add to that, if may Didier and Eric.

如果可以的話，我想補充一下 Didier 和 Eric。

It's also one of the reasons why you hear us saying that we keep a very sharp focus on the technology programs, whether it's the NXT program, whether it's the EUV program.

這也是為什麼你聽到我們說我們非常關注技術項目的原因之一，無論是 NXT 項目，還是 EUV 項目。

If there is a consolidation in the industry, then it's extremely important that we remain the most viable partner for those customers in the industry because there is still a lot of competition between the three or four or five remaining players.

如果行業出現整合，那麼我們仍然是行業中這些客戶最可行的合作夥伴是極其重要的，因為剩下的三四五個參與者之間仍然存在很多競爭。

And that means that they're all looking for the technology that gives them the best cost advantage.

這意味著他們都在尋找能夠為他們帶來最佳成本優勢的技術。

And that means that we need to have a roadmap that we can execute that is better than anything else.

這意味著我們需要有一個我們可以執行的路線圖，它比其他任何東西都好。

So, yes, you are right that in principle you could say if the market has fewer players they have a bigger buying power, but it's also something else playing.

所以，是的，你是對的，原則上你可以說如果市場參與者較少，他們就會有更大的購買力，但這也是其他因素在起作用。

Okay, and just a quick follow up on Immersion.

好的，只是對 Immersion 的快速跟進。

It's fascinating, obviously this transition, and you've given a lot of drivers for Immersion business to go up next year.

這很令人著迷，顯然這種轉變，你為 Immersion 業務在明年的發展提供了很多動力。

I'm just wondering if you would look at the refurbished Immersion business, today you talked about four unique bookings for the 1700s of refurbished, do you think that the incremental growth in '09 would primarily come from refurbished units?

我只是想知道您是否會看看翻新的 Immersion 業務，今天您談到了翻新的 1700 年代的四個獨特預訂，您認為 09 年的增量增長主要來自翻新的單位嗎？

Or do you think that you will get growth even in your 1900, 1950 new equipment?

還是您認為即使在 1900 年、1950 年的新設備中您也會獲得增長？

Like I said earlier, I don't think -- don't exaggerate the supply of the 1700s.

就像我之前說的，我不認為——不要誇大 1700 年代的供應。

We have shipped 50 1700s in total.

我們總共運送了 50 台 1700。

Don't think that they will all come available to be shipped to other places of the world.

不要認為它們都可以運到世界其他地方。

Some of them are being run in real anger at the customer Fabs and they will not be pulled out.

他們中的一些人是在對客戶 Fabs 的真正憤怒中運行的，他們不會被撤出。

So -- and I think we will see some opportunities to basically get a supply of 1700s, Used ones, which we can then resell, but I don't think that that is going to have a major impact or that's going to be the big driver why the Immersion market in 2009 would actually grow.

所以——我認為我們會看到一些機會，基本上獲得 1700s 的供應，二手的，然後我們可以轉售，但我認為這不會產生重大影響，也不會成為重大影響2009 年 Immersion 市場實際增長的驅動因素。

I think there is an underlying growth trend, and Eric talked about that I think extensively, that is much strong than just the refurbished market.

我認為存在潛在的增長趨勢，埃里克談到了我認為廣泛的趨勢，這比翻新市場要強勁得多。

Many thanks.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自先生。

Mehdi Hosseini.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Mr.

先生。

Hosseini, please go ahead.

侯賽尼，請繼續。

Yes, this is Mehdi Hosseini from FBR Capital Markets.

是的，我是 FBR Capital Markets 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I have a question about your activities -- R&D activities beyond Immersion.

我對你們的活動有疑問——超越 Immersion 的研發活動。

Can you please help us understand about the competitive landscape beyond Immersion?

您能否幫助我們了解 Immersion 以外的競爭格局？

And to what extent do you expect competition to rise up when we get to that point in the next several years?

當我們在未來幾年達到這一點時，您預計競爭會在多大程度上加劇？

This is a very nice question.

這是一個很好的問題。

Obviously, we feel very good about your question because it gives us more opportunities.

顯然，我們對你的問題感覺很好，因為它給了我們更多的機會。

Let me explain.

讓我解釋。

Today in the market you will see the FLASH and DRAM segment pushing very, very hard for EUV.

今天在市場上，您會看到 FLASH 和 DRAM 部分非常非常努力地推動 EUV。

And you will see the Logic vehicle driven by IBM in particular, and Intel but as I would say separate company pushing for computational scaling, which is another way of saying double patterning with a significant amount of lithography, call it, lithography enabling design.

你會看到特別是 IBM 和英特爾驅動的 Logic 車輛，但正如我所說的，獨立的公司推動計算擴展，這是用大量光刻技術進行雙圖案化的另一種說法，稱之為光刻技術支持設計。

These are not conflicting.

這些並不矛盾。

They are trying to solve two different problems.

他們試圖解決兩個不同的問題。

In the DRAM/FLASH you need very quickly your solutions, you need to shrink as much as possible and there are two or three limiters in the designs that makes computational scaling not, in fact, solving your problems, so you need EUV.

在 DRAM/FLASH 中，你需要非常快速的解決方案，你需要盡可能地縮小，並且設計中有兩個或三個限制器使得計算縮放實際上不能解決你的問題，所以你需要 EUV。

In the Logic arena you could use EUV, but EUV may arrive about six months late to the timing of some customers and, therefore, there maybe no other choice but trying to prolong Immersion but computational scaling.

在邏輯領域，您可以使用 EUV，但 EUV 可能會比某些客戶的時間晚大約六個月，因此，除了嘗試延長 Immersion 而不是計算縮放，可能別無選擇。

So ASML is thrilled because, first of all, EUV, as I said, is a game changer.

所以 ASML 很興奮，因為首先，正如我所說，EUV 是遊戲規則的改變者。

It's all in our hand.

這一切都在我們的手中。

If we succeed to deliver six months earlier and at the cost target I talked about in my little discussion, then we have the business for two years probably for us.

如果我們成功地提前六個月交付並達到我在簡短討論中談到的成本目標，那麼我們可能會有兩年的業務。

We will sell on technology, that is, the fact that is shrinks, we will sell on costs because I think it's much, much more cost effective than computational scaling.

我們將出售技術，即縮小的事實，我們將出售成本，因為我認為它比計算擴展更具成本效益。

But, in addition, we think that it is possible that EUV, therefore, will miss by six months or so some good designs, and we what to hit it with computational scaling.

但是，此外，我們認為 EUV 可能會因此錯過六個月左右的一些好的設計，我們將通過計算縮放來解決它。

And this is where we are going to get a very large value added through our acquisition, Brion, which allows us to do two things.

這就是我們將通過收購 Brion 獲得非常大的附加值的地方，這使我們能夠做兩件事。

One, selling with a service to the customer, which is how to basically scale, how to do the job of design integrated to the lithography.

一，銷售和服務給客戶，這就是如何基本擴展，如何將設計工作集成到光刻中。

And, two, that allows us to integrate onto each of the machine a certain number of features of metrology and features of programmability which we are going to sell.

第二，這使我們能夠在每台機器上集成一定數量的計量功能和我們將要出售的可編程功能。

So it's an additional profit generator and ASP enhancer opportunity.

因此，這是一個額外的利潤生成器和 ASP 增強器機會。

So that is also part of our R&D.

所以這也是我們研發的一部分。

We're putting a significant amount of money into this.

我們正在為此投入大量資金。

And we also expect to be a leader.

我們也希望成為領導者。

We have not seen yet significant activity by our competitors on this one -- on this segment also.

我們還沒有看到我們的競爭對手在這方面的重大活動 - 在這個細分市場上也是如此。

We're doing this, and we expect to start reaping profit of these EUV and computational scaling some time by 2010.

我們正在這樣做，我們預計到 2010 年某個時候開始從這些 EUV 和計算擴展中獲利。

Excuse my lack of understanding about technology, but EUV is still requiring a mask, right?

請原諒我對技術的不了解，但是EUV還是需要掩模的，對吧？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Now, do you see a renaissance for mask-less technology?

現在，你看到無掩模技術的複興了嗎？

Yes, there are two competing -- not two competing, two potential threat to photolithography as we are executing.

是的，有兩個競爭 - 不是兩個競爭，兩個對我們正在執行的光刻的潛在威脅。

One is e-beam, electron beam, driven mainly by a small start-up called Mapper in Holland, very much a neighbor of ours and sponsored and supported by GSMC.

一種是電子束，電子束，主要由荷蘭一家名為 Mapper 的小型初創公司驅動，該公司與我們非常接近，並得到 GSMC 的讚助和支持。

And there has been a press release yesterday on the subject.

昨天有關於這個主題的新聞稿。

And the other options would be imprint all driven by a small start-up in the US mainly and sponsored by Toshiba.

其他選項將全部由美國的一家小型初創企業驅動，並由東芝贊助。

Those two technologies are interesting potential technology which we have assessed, and probably most of the market have assessed the same way as we have, for a good usage in lab environment.

這兩項技術是我們評估過的有趣的潛在技術，並且可能大多數市場都以與我們相同的方式評估了在實驗室環境中的良好使用。

I don't think the industry, and even those players, can trace a roadmap towards high volume production.

我認為這個行業，甚至那些參與者，都無法追踪到大批量生產的路線圖。

There may be an opportunity and we, at ASML, would be interested to participate and would be able to integrate because, as you know, we are integrated.

可能會有機會，我們 ASML 有興趣參與並能夠整合，因為如您所知，我們已經整合。

But at this moment it seems that they will -- the technology and the proof of concept does not really get to be a significant threat in, I would say, mass production.

但目前他們似乎會——技術和概念驗證並不會真正成為大規模生產的重大威脅。

But as a lab tool it would be a good thing.

但作為實驗室工具，這將是一件好事。

So this why you would consider, like GSMC and Toshiba does, that it's not a bad thing to have the possibility of a lab prototyping machine which allows you to test your design early enough, and at lower price obviously, than the production machine.

所以這就是為什麼你會像 GSMC 和東芝那樣考慮，擁有實驗室原型機的可能性並不是一件壞事，它可以讓你足夠早地測試你的設計，而且價格明顯低於生產機器。

But at this moment, as I say, I would look at the vote by the industry about the different technologies of the future.

但此刻，正如我所說，我會看看業界對未來不同技術的投票。

And this is why I was mentioning the two big discussion is around EUV and computational scaling.

這就是為什麼我提到圍繞 EUV 和計算縮放的兩大討論。

These are the two, I would say, big ones on which the industry is at this moment aligning.

我想說的是，這兩個是目前行業正在調整的大公司。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Operator and ladies and gentlemen, I think we've used our allotted time so I'm going to invite those people that had a question or a remaining question to feel free to call the investor relations department here in The Netherlands this evening or this afternoon, morning your time.

接線員，女士們，先生們，我想我們已經用完了分配的時間，所以我將邀請那些有問題或有待解決問題的人今晚或今天下午隨時致電荷蘭的投資者關係部門，早上好你的時間。

And now, operator, if you'd formally close the call out for us, we'd appreciate it.

現在，接線員，如果您正式結束對我們的呼叫，我們將不勝感激。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2008 third quarter results conference call.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2008 年第三季度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating and you may disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您可能會斷開連接。