艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2008 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the ASML 2008 second quarter results conference call on July 16, 2008.

歡迎參加 2008 年 7 月 16 日召開的 ASML 2008 年第二季度業績電話會議。

Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的介紹中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

ASML介紹完之後，會有提問的機會。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

我現在想把會議轉交給先生。

Craig DeYoung.

克雷格·德揚。

Please go ahead sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you Jose.

謝謝何塞。

Good morning and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，早上好，下午好。

This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at ASML.

我是 ASML 投資者關係和企業傳播副總裁 Craig DeYoung。

I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and web cast.

歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網絡直播。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2008 Q2 results.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2008 年第二季度業績。

Hosting the call today is ASML's CEO, Eric Meurice and CFO Peter Wennink.

今天主持電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和首席財務官 Peter Wennink。

For your information, Eric and I are joining the call from San Francisco, California.

供您參考，埃里克和我將從加利福尼亞州舊金山加入電話會議。

I mention this in case there are any technical difficulties and we get separated from the call, we will rejoin the call as soon as possible.

我提到這一點是為了防止出現任何技術困難並且我們與通話分開，我們將盡快重新加入通話。

I'd like to draw your attention to our safe harbor statement contained within today's press release and presentation.

我想提請您注意我們在今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明。

And you can find our Q2 results, press release and presentation on our website at www.asml.com.

您可以在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到我們的第二季度業績、新聞稿和演示文稿。

The length of the call will be 60 minutes.

通話時長為 60 分鐘。

Now at this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Eric Meurice for a brief introduction.

現在，我想把電話轉給 Eric Meurice 做一個簡短的介紹。

Okay thank you Craig.

好的，謝謝克雷格。

Good afternoon, good morning, thank you for attending our Q2 2008 results conference call.

下午好，早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2008 年第二季度業績電話會議。

Peter and I would like to say a few things about the quarter before we open up to -- the call to questions.

彼得和我想在我們開始討論問題之前談談這個季度的一些事情。

Peter will start with a review of our Q2 financial performance with added comments on our short term outlook.

Peter 將首先回顧我們第二季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表更多評論。

I will complete the introduction with our assessment of the current environment and some details on our longer term view.

我將通過我們對當前環境的評估和我們長期觀點的一些細節來完成介紹。

Following the introduction, we will open the call to questions.

介紹完畢後，我們將開始提問。

Peter please.

彼得請。

Thank you Eric and welcome to everyone.

謝謝埃里克，歡迎大家。

First of all, I would like to review the highlights of our second quarter results.

首先，我想回顧一下我們第二季度業績的亮點。

The second quarter ended on the high side of the expectations, with revenues of EUR844 million on shipments of 39 systems, 16 of which were immersion systems.

第二季度結束時高於預期，39 個系統的出貨量為 8.44 億歐元，其中 16 個是浸入式系統。

The second quarter ASP for all systems was EUR18.6 million, making this another record ASP quarter, which is due to the success of the ASML immersion systems.

第二季度所有系統的平均售價為 1860 萬歐元，這又是一個創紀錄的季度平均售價，這要歸功於 ASML 沉浸式系統的成功。

A 40% gross margin along with operating expenses of EUR186 million resulted in operating margin on the quarter of 17.8% versus 20.5% in the first quarter of the year.

40% 的毛利率和 1.86 億歐元的運營費用導致本季度的運營利潤率為 17.8%，而今年第一季度為 20.5%。

We booked 33 systems in Q2, 29 of which were new and, as guided at the time of the Q1 results, this represents a gradual increase of Q1's order intake of 26 units; and as predicted, a significant increase in order value, which brings the Q2 bookings value to EUR632 million versus EUR312 million in the first quarter.

我們在第二季度預訂了 33 個系統，其中 29 個是新系統，並且根據第一季度結果時的指導，這表示第一季度的訂單量逐漸增加了 26 個；正如預期的那樣，訂單價值顯著增加，使第二季度的預訂價值達到 6.32 億歐元，而第一季度為 3.12 億歐元。

This leaves the total system backlog value for the end of the quarter at EUR1.1 billion.

這使得本季度末的系統積壓總價值為 11 億歐元。

The second quarter orders were heavily dominated by orders for 20 immersion systems.

第二季度的訂單主要是 20 個浸入式系統的訂單。

These requirements came largely from memory customers with an emphasis on Japan.

這些要求主要來自以日本為重點的內存客戶。

Looking forward, we anticipate the immersion bookings in the third quarter to be comparable to Q2, driven by essential technology transitions that are underway at flash and DRAM manufacturers.

展望未來，我們預計第三季度的沉浸式預訂將與第二季度相當，這是由閃存和 DRAM 製造商正在進行的重要技術轉型推動的。

Now, even though the demand for immersion systems remains very robust, the current macroeconomic weakness that reflects on our customers may be forcing them to postpone more leading edge capacity additions.

現在，儘管對浸入式系統的需求仍然非常強勁，但反映在我們客戶身上的當前宏觀經濟疲軟可能會迫使他們推遲更多前沿產能的增加。

This is true in most applications, making it difficult for us to guide the orders for non-leading edge systems in Q3.

在大多數應用中都是如此，這使得我們很難在第三季度指導非前沿系統的訂單。

Now in case of a situation where these systems, these non-leading edge systems would not be ordered, we would likely see an impact on our Q4 shipments.

現在，如果這些系統、這些非前沿系統不會被訂購，我們可能會看到對我們第四季度出貨量的影響。

And this means that the previously announced 2008 sales, decrease of 10%, could potentially end up being as much as a 20% decrease.

這意味著先前公佈的 2008 年銷售額下降 10%，最終可能下降多達 20%。

On the positive side though, it appears that the factory utilization at all of our customers remains high.

但從積極的方面來看，我們所有客戶的工廠利用率似乎仍然很高。

Chip inventories are at a moderate level and the will to invest in the latest technology remains strong.

芯片庫存處於中等水平，投資最新技術的意願依然強勁。

Our customers will resume ordering additional production capacity when they regain a higher level of confidence in the economic situation, which includes a healthier pricing environment for the memory devices.

當我們的客戶對經濟形勢重新獲得更高的信心時，他們將恢復訂購額外的生產能力，其中包括更健康的存儲設備定價環境。

Now, timing and size of such rebounds remains unclear, and although we do not exclude that this could happen in the course of the second half of this year.

現在，此類反彈的時間和規模仍不明朗，但我們不排除這可能會在今年下半年發生。

I think a striking example of our customers' cautious stance at this moment is the fact that our two leading foundry customers are completely absent in our order book, with their factory utilization at high levels.

我認為我們客戶此時持謹慎態度的一個突出例子是我們的兩個主要代工客戶完全不在我們的訂單簿中，他們的工廠利用率很高。

This has never happened before.

這以前從未發生過。

In Q3, we plan to ship 37 systems, slightly less than the 39 systems in Q2, but with an average selling price of EUR15.6 million versus the EUR18.6 million ASP in Q2.

在第三季度，我們計劃出貨 37 個系統，略低於第二季度的 39 個系統，但平均售價為 1560 萬歐元，而第二季度為 1860 萬歐元。

The ASP decrease is simply due to the product mix in the quarter, which means a higher mix of used tools versus immersion systems as compared to Q2.

ASP 的下降僅僅是由於本季度的產品組合，這意味著與第二季度相比，二手工具與浸入式系統的組合更高。

This level of sales was anticipated at the time of our Q1 order intake when we estimated the impact on this on our 2008 sales number.

當我們估計這對我們 2008 年的銷售數字的影響時，我們在第一季度的訂單接收時就預計到了這一銷售水平。

Now on the lower Q3 sales number, our gross margin for the quarter will be approximately 38%, as we will experience a lower coverage of our fixed manufacturing cost.

現在，根據較低的第三季度銷售數字，我們本季度的毛利率約為 38%，因為我們的固定製造成本覆蓋率較低。

As mentioned in Q1, given the current market weakness, we plan to trim manufacturing and SG&A cost for the second half, while keeping R&D stable at the current levels.

如第一季度所述，鑑於當前市場疲軟，我們計劃在下半年削減製造和 SG&A 成本，同時將研發保持在當前水平。

Therefore, R&D is planned at EUR130 million and SG&A will decrease to EUR52 million.

因此，研發計劃為 1.3 億歐元，SG&A 將減少至 5200 萬歐元。

I must also mention that we posted the next tax benefit in the quarter, which resulted from a release of tax provisions, after we concluded some long-standing discussions with the Dutch tax authorities.

我還必須提到，在我們結束與荷蘭稅務當局的一些長期討論之後，我們在本季度公佈了下一個稅收優惠，這是由於稅收規定的發布。

And these discussions focused on, amongst other things, the treatment of taxable income relating to ASML patents portfolio.

這些討論主要集中在與 ASML 專利組合相關的應稅收入的處理等方面。

These concluded discussions have led to a benefit booked in the second quarter and will also result in a structurally lower effective income tax rate in the coming years, decreasing to an estimated 20% annual tax charge.

這些已結束的討論導致了第二季度的收益，也將導致未來幾年結構性地降低有效所得稅率，估計每年的稅費將降至 20%。

So in summary, we remain cautious against the backdrop of global economic weakness and a difficult pricing environment in the memory market.

因此，總而言之，在全球經濟疲軟和內存市場艱難的定價環境的背景下，我們仍然保持謹慎。

However, we are also confident that lithography demand will resume its (inaudible) growth planned when overall economic uncertainty decreases, because no excess lithography capacity is currently being built and necessary technology transitions are progressing well.

然而，我們也有信心，當整體經濟不確定性降低時，光刻機需求將恢復其計劃的（聽不清）增長，因為目前沒有建設過剩的光刻機產能，並且必要的技術轉型進展順利。

Now as a last comment, we almost seem to forget amidst all the doom and gloom of today that ASML's a very healthy company.

現在作為最後的評論，在今天所有的厄運和陰鬱中，我們似乎幾乎忘記了 ASML 是一家非常健康的公司。

We're growing market share; we are robustly profitable; and we're generating more than sufficient cash in a very tough environment and that's something that we're very proud of.

我們正在擴大市場份額；我們盈利能力強；我們在非常艱難的環境中產生了足夠多的現金，這是我們非常自豪的事情。

And now, I'd like to turn back to Eric for an outline of our technology progress, which is the key behind ASML's robustness.

現在，我想請埃里克概述我們的技術進步，這是 ASML 穩健性背後的關鍵。

Okay, thank you Peter.

好的，謝謝彼得。

So, Peter has highlighted the fact that we again posted strong sales for the ninth consecutive quarter.

因此，彼得強調了一個事實，即我們再次連續第九個季度實現強勁銷售。

We are arguably doing better than our competitors or peers in terms of sales decline this year, even if the market for capacity tools stalls as a result of the fear of a recession.

就今年的銷售額下降而言，我們可以說比我們的競爭對手或同行做得更好，即使容量工具市場由於對經濟衰退的恐懼而停滯不前。

This is a testament again, as Peter said, to ASML's strong position in support of technology transitions, resulting in high system average selling prices and a continuous market share growth.

正如 Peter 所說，這再次證明了 ASML 在支持技術轉型方面的強大地位，導致系統平均售價較高，市場份額持續增長。

So, I'd like to spend a bit of time on talking about the fundamentals of the business in spite of the fact that we may be going into recession, because what makes a difference is technology strength of the Company.

因此，儘管我們可能會陷入衰退，但我還是想花點時間談談業務的基本面，因為真正重要的是公司的技術實力。

The first issue, the first thing I'd like to underline is our immersion business.

第一個問題，我想強調的第一件事是我們的沉浸式業務。

The immersion business continues to show significant strength, as we shipped 16 systems this quarter, took an additional 20 immersion orders, leaving 27 systems in our backlog at the end of the second quarter.

沉浸式業務繼續顯示出巨大的實力，因為我們本季度交付了 16 個系統，又獲得了 20 個沉浸式訂單，第二季度末我們還有 27 個系統積壓。

We have shipped 30 systems year to date and have now more than 100 immersion systems delivered to over 20 individual customers worldwide.

迄今為止，我們已經交付了 30 個系統，現在已經向全球 20 多個個人客戶交付了 100 多個浸入式系統。

We are well on our way, as we guided a multiple numbers of times, well on our way to near doubling our immersion revenue in 2008 versus 2007.

正如我們多次指導的那樣，我們進展順利，我們的沉浸式收入在 2008 年與 2007 年相比幾乎翻了一番。

To maintain our competitive lead in immersion, we have unveiled a week -- I think this week, our new TWINSCAN XT:1950 immersion lithography system, which is the latest addition to our proven family of immersion systems that includes the XT:1900 and the XT:1700.

為了保持我們在浸入式領域的競爭優勢，我們已經推出了一周——我想這週，我們新的 TWINSCAN XT:1950 浸入式光刻系統，這是我們久經考驗的浸入式系統系列的最新成員，包括 XT:1900 和XT:1700。

With the 1950, we are increasing the performance of our current world leading system by 25%, so a very large number, thereby making immersion lithography increasingly affordable for 55 nanometer and for 45 nanometer processors.

借助 1950，我們將當前世界領先系統的性能提高了 25%，這是一個非常大的數字，從而使浸沒式光刻越來越適合 55 納米和 45 納米處理器。

This tool is also the only toolkit able of supporting the development and the volume production implementation of the next node, in particular the 32 nanometer node with its unique 1.35NA and sub 4 nanometer over the specification.

該工具也是唯一能夠支持下一個節點的開發和量產實施的工具包，特別是具有獨特的 1.35NA 和超過規範的亞 4 納米的 32 納米節點。

There is no matching competitive tools in existence or even announced that can do this.

沒有匹配的競爭工具存在，甚至沒有宣布可以做到這一點。

Thanks to this product development, in particular again in immersion, our market share in Japan is continuously increasing in the memory and non-memory segments.

得益於這一產品開發，尤其是在沉浸式產品方面，我們在日本內存和非內存領域的市場份額不斷增加。

Since early 2007, we have shipped more immersion tools in Japan than our competition and have won two new customer applications there alone.

自 2007 年初以來，我們在日本出貨的浸入式工具比競爭對手多，僅在日本就贏得了兩個新客戶的應用。

The systems for this new -- two new logic applications will ship in Q4.

這個新的系統——兩個新的邏輯應用程序將在第四季度發貨。

Beyond immersion, we achieved significant breakthroughs in our extreme ultra violet, the EUV program.

除了沉浸，我們在極紫外 EUV 計劃中取得了重大突破。

And the productivity of our EUV Alpha Demo tool is now reaching targeting throughputs and as light source suppliers are confirming roadmaps, enabling system performance well beyond 100 wafers per hour.

我們的 EUV Alpha 演示工具的生產力現在已經達到了目標吞吐量，並且隨著光源供應商正在確認路線圖，使系統性能遠遠超過每小時 100 個晶圓。

This is a significant performance, which has created additional momentum in the market for deliveries of the first pre-production tools in 2010, with production ramps anticipated already for 2011.

這是一項重要的業績，為 2010 年第一批預生產工具的交付創造了額外的市場動力，預計 2011 年將實現量產。

We expect to be well ahead of competition when the market, I would say even again, when the market transitions to EUV.

當市場向 EUV 過渡時，我們希望在競爭中遙遙領先。

During this period of macroeconomic uncertainty, we plan to keep, as Peter said, our R&D investment at the current level, which is also a testament of what we think about the depth of the potential recession, while we plan to accelerate our operational efficiency program.

在這段宏觀經濟不確定的時期，正如彼得所說，我們計劃將我們的研發投資保持在當前水平，這也證明了我們對潛在衰退深度的看法，同時我們計劃加快我們的運營效率計劃.

Indeed, the current business environment, including the strengths of the euro, forces our customers to push for better pricing obviously.

事實上，當前的商業環境，包括歐元的強勢，顯然迫使我們的客戶要求更好的定價。

Price pressures will be dealt with through accelerated manufacturing and SG&A cost reduction, which we have already shown -- seen, using our embedded label flexibility and supplier base efficiency programs, as well as value enhancing system performance upgrades, including the TWINSCAN H version on one hand, a completely new architecture on the other hand, which will be introduced early in 2009, and the introduction of our lithography enabler library, resulting mainly from Brion's technology.

價格壓力將通過加速製造和降低 SG&A 成本來解決，我們已經展示了這一點 - 看到，使用我們的嵌入式標籤靈活性和供應商基礎效率計劃，以及價值增強系統性能升級，包括 TWINSCAN H 版本一方面，另一方面，將在 2009 年初推出一個全新的架構，以及我們的光刻技術庫的推出，主要來自 Brion 的技術。

So after brushing, in fact, our technology progress in Q2, I think Peter and I are now ready to take your questions.

所以在刷完之後，事實上，我們在 Q2 的技術進步，我想 Peter 和我現在已經準備好回答你的問題了。

So ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session.

女士們，先生們，接線員將立即指導您了解問答環節的流程。

Beforehand I'd ask to -- I'd like to kindly ask you to limit your questions to one, with one short follow-up if necessary.

事先我會要求 - 我想請你將你的問題限制在一個問題上，如有必要，可以進行一次簡短的跟進。

This will allow us to get in as many callers as possible.

這將使我們能夠接聽盡可能多的來電者。

Jose, can we have your instructions please and then the first question?

何塞，請問您的指示，然後是第一個問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session.

女士們，先生們，現在，我們將開始問答環節。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

The first question comes from Mr.

第一個問題來自於先生。

Menon.

梅農。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hello, it's Janardan from Dresdner Kleinwort.

你好，我是 Dresdner Kleinwort 的 Janardan。

Two questions or a short follow-up the second one is, I promise you.

兩個問題或簡短的跟進，第二個是，我向你保證。

You talked about accelerated price pressure.

你談到加速的價格壓力。

Would you have any intention of increasing the level of discounts beyond what you've given in the past in order to secure business?

為了確保業務，您是否打算將折扣水平提高到超過您過去提供的水平？

Or would that be -- ASML has always had a policy of not bending down to price pressure and giving much discount, would that policy be maintained in the future as well?

或者是——ASML 一直有不屈服於價格壓力並給予很大折扣的政策，該政策在未來也會保持嗎？

And my follow-up is if you have -- you have been taking in quite strong immersion lithography orders.

我的後續行動是，如果你有——你一直在接受相當強大的浸沒式光刻訂單。

Even though you don't have much visibility on the dry orders, can you give us a feel for what increase in immersion shipments you can see next year at this point in time?

即使您對乾貨訂單的了解不多，您能否讓我們了解一下明年這個時間點的浸入式出貨量會增加多少？

Okay Janardan, thank you.

好的，Janardan，謝謝。

On the price pressure, the reason why we mentioned this is that because in any recession or in any market environment where the volume is not there, there is always a price pressure.

關於價格壓力，我們之所以提到這個，是因為在任何經濟衰退或者任何沒有成交量的市場環境中，總是存在價格壓力。

This time, we have also a -- we say a profit pressure from most of our memory customers.

這一次，我們還有一個——我們說來自我們大多數內存客戶的利潤壓力。

So, profit pressure will always result in the customers putting pressure on every supplier.

因此，利潤壓力總是會導致客戶對每個供應商施加壓力。

So, it's not a lithography issue.

所以，這不是光刻問題。

So, the way to react to this is, as I said in my little introduction, is twofold.

因此，正如我在簡短的介紹中所說，對此做出反應的方式是雙重的。

One obviously, we have to give value to our customers, so when they have a genuine reason for price pressure due to the fact that there is not enough value generated, then we have to give away -- I will not say we give away discount.

一個很明顯，我們必須為我們的客戶提供價值，所以當他們因為沒有產生足夠的價值而有真正的價格壓力時，我們就必須放棄——我不會說我們放棄折扣.

I say we develop products, which are more cost effective.

我說我們開發的產品更具成本效益。

And you've heard in my speech that we can be more cost effective further by improving on our cost structure, but also improving on the product itself.

你在我的演講中聽說我們可以通過改進我們的成本結構進一步提高成本效益，同時也改進產品本身。

And then what we also do, which is why you have seen this acceleration of the, I will say -- call it cannibalization of our products by bringing new versions.

然後我們也做了什麼，這就是為什麼你看到了這種加速，我會說 - 稱之為通過引入新版本來蠶食我們的產品。

We accelerate the introduction of new products with more value to them.

我們加快推出對他們更具價值的新產品。

The XT:1950 is an enormous improvement.

XT:1950 是一個巨大的改進。

It is about 15%-ish cheaper.

它便宜了大約 15%。

Very clearly, you've seen the press release.

很明顯，你已經看到了新聞稿。

But in addition, it is another 10% better value, you can shrink more.

但除此之外，它是另外一個10%更好的價值，你可以收縮更多。

So, you've got significant value generation option here, which solves the problem or addresses the problem of the customer price pressure.

所以，你在這裡有重要的價值生成選項，它解決了問題或解決了客戶價格壓力的問題。

And if that's not sufficient, we have the product, the next generation TWINSCAN, which comes early next year, which is another leapfrog to this.

如果這還不夠，我們還有明年初推出的下一代 TWINSCAN 產品，這是對這一產品的又一次飛躍。

So in other terms, we recognize price pressure, we recognize price pressure due to the customers having difficulties and we are addressing this with products which are significantly better.

因此，換句話說，我們認識到價格壓力，我們認識到由於客戶遇到困難而導致的價格壓力，我們正在用更好的產品來解決這個問題。

In fact, our R&D investment is showing.

事實上，我們的研發投入正在顯現。

And the second bit is the immersion business for 2009.

第二點是 2009 年的沉浸式業務。

I think you've got two questions in that.

我想你有兩個問題。

It's not only the immersion business.

這不僅僅是沉浸式業務。

It's the whole 2009.

這是整個2009年。

Everybody's waiting to see how 2009 is going to develop.

每個人都在等著看 2009 年將如何發展。

And, in fact, I think we should be at this moment optimistic, because of the following two things.

而且，事實上，我認為我們現在應該樂觀，因為以下兩點。

One is we just said that we are not seeing at this moment any capacity orders, we are only seeing immersion.

一是我們剛才說我們目前沒有看到任何容量訂單，我們只看到沉浸感。

And with immersion, we are still developing a sales level which is, we say, appropriate.

通過沉浸，我們仍在開發一個我們認為合適的銷售水平。

But the fact that there is no capacity order at this moment means that if and when the economy start to pick up, we're going to have an enormous wave of capacity order.

但目前沒有產能訂單這一事實意味著，如果經濟開始回暖，我們將迎來一波巨大的產能訂單浪潮。

You read the statistics from analysts that say there is, however, still in the semiconductor industry some unit growth.

你從分析師那裡讀到的統計數據表明，然而，半導體行業仍有一些單位增長。

And this is happening.

這正在發生。

But when the unit growth will get back to a level of 10% or so after the recession, or when after the recession the industry gets more confidence, we fear, with pleasure by the way, that there could be a significant pick up.

但是，當單位增長率在經濟衰退後恢復到 10% 左右的水平時，或者當經濟衰退後該行業變得更有信心時，我們擔心，順便說一句，我們很高興地擔心會出現顯著回升。

And we are, in fact, preparing ourselves for this possibility in 2009.

事實上，我們正在為 2009 年的這種可能性做準備。

So in other terms, we are confident that business pick up will be larger than expected, because at this moment there is no capacity being built.

因此，換句話說，我們相信業務回升將大於預期，因為目前還沒有建設產能。

Now to answer your question on immersion.

現在回答你關於沉浸的問題。

Immersion will be a big business in 2009.

Immersion 將在 2009 年成為一項大生意。

We do not know if there is a -- what is a multiplying factor.

我們不知道是否有 - 什麼是倍增因素。

But we know it's going to be a big business for two reasons.

但我們知道這將成為一項大業務，原因有二。

One, the new technology, the new nodes in DRAM 55 nanometer at this moment is just started at two players only.

一、新技術，此時DRAM 55納米的新節點僅在兩家公司才剛剛起步。

And every other DRAM players will have to be in 55 nanometer.

而所有其他 DRAM 播放器都必須採用 55 納米工藝。

This is the rule of the game, recession or not.

這是遊戲規則，無論經濟衰退與否。

When the two leaders have 55, the other one have to have 55.

當兩個領導者有 55 個時，另一個必須有 55 個。

So we are going to have significant amount of business and it's probably more than 60% of the DRAM business customers will have to ramp.

因此，我們將擁有大量業務，可能超過 60% 的 DRAM 業務客戶將不得不增加。

And at this moment they haven't.

而此刻他們還沒有。

So, we expect that to be a major driver.

因此，我們預計這將成為主要驅動力。

The second driver is the usual, flash.

第二個驅動程序是通常的閃光燈。

As you know, flash today is having some difficulty, because of the end volume, which is not great, but at this moment they are not building a lot of capacity.

如你所知，今天的閃存有一些困難，因為最終量不是很大，但目前他們並沒有建立大量的容量。

And again, they will need to build 45 nanometer capacity, in particular the guys who are not yet in this business.

而且，他們將需要建立 45 納米產能，特別是那些尚未從事這項業務的人。

And this is again, probably, I would say, at least 30% to 40% of market share in flash is not yet in this 45 nanometer node.

這又一次，我想說，至少 30% 到 40% 的閃存市場份額還沒有出現在這個 45 納米節點上。

Then, the third engine is what's beyond 45 nanometer in flash?

那麼，第三個引擎是什麼超過45納米的閃存呢？

What's beyond 55 nanometer in DRAM?

DRAM 中超過 55 納米的是什麼？

And what is the logic 45 nanometer immersion ramp?

什麼是邏輯 45 納米浸沒斜坡？

This is going to be also significant, in particular, that for some of those nodes, we're going to talk about double patterning.

這也很重要，特別是對於其中一些節點，我們將討論雙重圖案化。

And double patterning means double numbers of tools to process the same amount of wafers.

而雙圖形意味著雙倍數量的工具來處理相同數量的晶圓。

So in other terms, there is a multiplier in immersion business for 2009, a bit too early to talk about, but it's going to be significant.

所以換句話說，2009 年沈浸式業務有一個乘數，現在談論它還為時過早，但它會很重要。

Eric, just to clarify a comment, when you said 15% cheaper the 1950 is, of course, meant not that the tool price is 15% cheaper, but that we have 15% more throughput, which actually makes the cost for our customers 15% cheaper.

埃里克，澄清一下，當你說 1950 便宜 15% 時，當然不是說工具價格便宜 15%，而是我們的產量提高了 15%，這實際上使我們客戶的成本降低了 15 ％便宜。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Andrew Gardiner.

安德魯·加德納。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Lehman Brothers.

我是雷曼兄弟公司的安德魯·加德納。

I was just interested in a bit more detail on the backlog composition at the moment.

目前我只是對積壓工作的更多細節感興趣。

Firstly, what is in there in terms of the memory names and just how you feel about the Tier 2 guys coming through in the third and fourth quarters of this year potentially, particularly around some of the delays that you'd cited earlier in the year?

首先，關於內存名稱的內容以及您對今年第三和第四季度可能出現的第 2 層人員的看法，特別是圍繞您在今年早些時候提到的一些延遲？

And then finally, on the foundry side, which clearly is not in the backlog at the moment, what are the conversations that you are having there with those guys, given that, as you pointed out, utilization is high, and perhaps the frequency with which those conversations are going on?

最後，在鑄造廠方面，目前顯然不在積壓中，你與那些人在那裡進行的對話是什麼，因為正如你所指出的那樣，利用率很高，也許與哪些對話正在進行？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Peter, you may want to take the statistics stuff, and then I can give some color customer-wise?

彼得，你可能想要統計數據，然後我可以給客戶一些顏色？

Yes, it's -- the backlog composition, it's -- in terms of -- of course, it's shown in the presentation, but we lumped it together, which is on slide 27 of the presentation.

是的，它是 - 積壓組成，它 - 就 - 當然，它顯示在演示文稿中，但我們將它集中在一起，在演示文稿的幻燈片 27 上。

The end-use 65% memory, and 8% foundry, which I said, clearly does not include the two biggest foundry customers that we have, which is, by the way, for the first time in the history of the company that we don't have those two in the backlog, which actually pretty high utilizations there.

我所說的最終使用 65% 的內存和 8% 的代工顯然不包括我們擁有的兩個最大的代工客戶，順便說一句，這在我們沒有的公司歷史上是第一次在積壓工作中有這兩個，實際上那裡的利用率很高。

The IDM 27%, and if we split the memory business it is 50/50, DRAM and flash in the backlog.

IDM 27%，如果我們拆分內存業務，它是 50/50，積壓的 DRAM 和閃存。

So, we aren't going to go into customer details, clearly, but it's really spot on 50/50.

所以，我們顯然不會深入了解客戶的詳細信息，但它確實是 50/50。

And to give some color, the reason why we have said today that we will oscillate between minus 10% and minus 20% in a worst case situations, for sure, is because there is a wait and see attitude about putting bookings for capacity orders.

並給出一些顏色，我們今天說在最壞情況下我們將在負 10% 和負 20% 之間波動的原因肯定是因為對容量訂單的預訂持觀望態度。

And this is happening in most of the segments, even the segments which have significant volume growth, like the logic segment.

這發生在大多數細分市場，甚至是銷量增長顯著的細分市場，如邏輯細分市場。

Even in the segment, the different players, foundry in particular, are saying, let's see how the world economy is developing before we put the orders.

即使在這個領域，不同的參與者，尤其是代工廠，都在說，在我們下訂單之前，讓我們看看世界經濟如何發展。

And this is, I would say, the same on DRAM, where those people are waiting for the price of the chips to be firming up.

我想說，這在 DRAM 上也是一樣，那些人正在等待芯片價格堅挺。

As you know, it has been firming up in DRAM so far, but firming up with a, I would say, single digit type numbers.

如您所知，到目前為止，它一直在 DRAM 中穩固，但我會說，穩固的是個位數類型的數字。

It will be more comfortable for them if it is double digit.

如果是兩位數，他們會更舒服。

Flash, they are waiting for the end product to move up a bit, which is most of them is consumer driven.

閃存，他們正在等待最終產品向上移動一點，其中大部分是消費者驅動的。

So, it is most of them H2 rather than H1.

因此，其中大多數是 H2 而不是 H1。

But a wait and see attitude.

而是一種觀望的態度。

So, we have that all over the place, which is not bad.

所以，我們到處都有，這還不錯。

It doesn't mean that the business is disappearing.

這並不意味著業務正在消失。

It means that the business is taking its time to gauge the future.

這意味著企業正在花時間衡量未來。

So, it is why I said we are seeing the possibility of a fairly steep ramp up at the moment, uncertainty would weaken the [visibility].

所以，這就是為什麼我說我們目前看到了相當陡峭的增長的可能性，不確定性會削弱 [visibility]。

And I would like to add that, Eric, that if you look at the utilization of our tools in every segment, memory, IDM, but also, clearly, foundry, for all our tools we are at utilization levels we have never seen before, which actually means that the customers are dealing with, clearly, the end growth demands in terms of units by sweating their assets.

我想補充一點，埃里克，如果你看看我們的工具在每個細分市場、內存、IDM 中的利用率，而且顯然還有代工廠，對於我們所有的工具，我們處於前所未有的利用率水平，這實際上意味著客戶正在處理，很明顯，通過消耗他們的資產來滿足單位方面的最終增長需求。

And that's very, very visible.

這是非常非常明顯的。

So, I think that also gives them a little bit of breathing space to say, we can afford the wait and see approach.

所以，我認為這也給了他們一點喘息的空間，我們可以負擔得起觀望的態度。

Now, since all of them are at record utilization levels, and that has a natural limit, like Eric said, there must be a moment in time where it doesn't work any more, you cannot sweat the assets any further.

現在，由於所有這些都處於創紀錄的利用率水平，並且有一個自然的限制，就像埃里克所說的那樣，肯定有一段時間它不再起作用了，你不能再浪費資產了。

That's very clear, thank you very much.

說的很清楚了，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Nicolas Gaudois.

尼古拉斯·高杜瓦。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hello, it's Nic Gaudois from UBS.

是的，你好，我是 UBS 的 Nic Gaudois。

The first question is on the behavior of clients you're seeing currently.

第一個問題是關於您目前看到的客戶的行為。

Obviously you had some (inaudible) as you said.

顯然，正如您所說，您有一些（聽不清）。

Your order guidance for Q3 is reasonably vague.

您對第三季度的訂單指導相當模糊。

We have a backbone for immersion.

我們有沉浸的支柱。

We don't really know much more about what will happen for volume production there.

我們真的不太了解那裡的量產會發生什麼。

Would you say that even some of your largest customers, which tended sometime to spend strategically right now, are still in wait and see mode, and probably more hesitant to confirm orders for Q3 for deliveries in H1 '09?

你會說即使是你的一些最大的客戶，他們現在有時會進行戰略性支出，但仍處於觀望狀態，並且可能更猶豫要確認 09 年上半年交貨的第三季度訂單嗎？

Or is that not a fair statement?

或者這不是一個公平的陳述？

No, I think it's exactly as you said.

不，我認為這正是你所說的。

It's a wait and see attitude, but with usual game of telling us that they may want things in Q4 with very, very short lead time.

這是一種觀望態度，但通常會告訴我們他們可能會在第四季度以非常非常短的交貨時間想要東西。

So you -- very clearly, everyone in the industry is still not seeing -- in the world economy -- is not seeing negative statistics about demand.

所以你 - 非常清楚，行業中的每個人仍然沒有看到 - 在世界經濟中 - 沒有看到關於需求的負面統計數據。

You are the specialist, you should know, most of the applications are still running.

你是專家，你應該知道，大多數應用程序仍在運行。

PC is doing fairly good.

個人電腦做得相當好。

Consumer electronics is OK.

消費電子產品還可以。

Cars, except for General Motors I guess, is still growing.

汽車，我想除了通用汽車，仍在增長。

So, you have all this happening, but because of fear, everything that can be pushed out is pushed out at this moment.

所以，你有這一切的發生，卻因為恐懼，所有能推開的都在這一刻推開。

And, as Peter used a very scientific term, at this moment they are sweating the installed base, which you can always do, until the decision becomes necessary.

而且，正如彼得使用了一個非常科學的術語，此時他們正在為已安裝的用戶群操心，你總是可以這樣做，直到有必要做出決定。

So, most of our customers, in fact all of our customers, are still putting a forecast to us for Q4, which is above our guidance, let's be very blunt.

因此，我們的大多數客戶，實際上是我們所有的客戶，仍在向我們提供第四季度的預測，這超出了我們的指導，讓我們直言不諱。

So, we are judging, as we've mentioned, between minus 10% and minus 20%, just as a statement of -- I would not say conservatism, but of the fact that the world at this moment has a period of thinking about where the business will go.

所以，正如我們已經提到的，我們正在判斷負 10% 和負 20% 之間的變化，就像是在聲明——我不會說保守主義，而是在這個時刻，世界正在思考這個事實業務將走向何方。

Yes, okay, fair enough.

是的，好吧，很公平。

And in terms of a follow-up, just I'm starting a little bit to understand the ASP for new orders, orders for new machines, in Q2, considering that you had 20 immersion orders.

就後續行動而言，考慮到您有 20 個沉浸式訂單，我才開始了解第二季度新訂單、新機器訂單的 ASP。

I understand one of them was refurbished, so it leaves us with 19 immersion; 10 non-immersion.

我知道其中一個是翻新過的，所以它給我們留下了 19 沉浸感； 10 非浸泡。

And when I do the math, I have to plug in ASPs close to EUR27 million for immersion, and maybe around EUR12 million for non-immersion to get to your blended ASP.

當我進行計算時，我必須插入接近 2700 萬歐元的沉浸式 ASP，以及大約 1200 萬歐元的非沉浸式 ASP 才能得到你的混合 ASP。

That looks low.

這看起來很低。

Am I missing something?

我錯過了什麼嗎？

Or in some cases you had to have pricing a bit lower from what you typically would have on a normal run rate basis?

或者在某些情況下，您的定價必須比您通常在正常運行率基礎上的定價低一些？

I don't have the math with me.

我沒有數學。

Potentially Craig and Frankie will come back to you on this.

克雷格和弗蘭基可能會就此回复您。

But no, there is no trend at all that you could see again, because every time at this moment when we would reduce the price of a tool, because every year you negotiate, and every year you give away a bit, this is normal business, we usually upgrade the machines with a higher speed and, therefore, we compensate for this.

但是沒有，完全沒有你能再次看到的趨勢，因為每次這個時候我們都會降低工具的價格，因為每年你都在談判，每年你都會放棄一點，這是正常的業務，我們通常以更高的速度升級機器，因此我們對此進行了補償。

So this is happening at this moment.

所以這就是發生在這一刻。

Sometimes you have by quarter, of course, a mix -- a customer mix impact, which could explain this.

當然，有時你按季度會有混合——客戶組合的影響，這可以解釋這一點。

This time, also, we have a lot of fuse order, I think.

我想這一次我們也有很多保險絲訂單。

I don't know.

我不知道。

But I'm -- at this moment you should not be able to see any ASP squeeze by segment or by customer.

但我是——此時你不應該看到任何 ASP 按細分市場或客戶擠壓。

The immersion ASP is on average between EUR27 million and EUR28 million, but it includes, by the way, too used tools.

沉浸式 ASP 平均在 2700 萬歐元到 2800 萬歐元之間，但順便說一句，它包括太常用的工具。

So, that means that the new systems are about the same level as we had before.

因此，這意味著新系統與我們以前的水平大致相同。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, that's helpful, thank you very much.

好的，很有幫助，非常感謝。

Next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Atif Malik.

阿蒂夫·馬利克。

Please state your name, followed by your question.

請說出你的名字，然後是你的問題。

Hello, this is Atif Malik from Morgan Stanley.

大家好，我是摩根士丹利的 Atif Malik。

I have a question on your R&D profile.

我對您的研發概況有疑問。

If I look at your R&D spending over the last two or three years, it seems to me it's increased to 17% of the sales in 2008, or is an increase to about 7% level.

如果我看一下你們過去兩三年的研發支出，在我看來，它在 2008 年增加到銷售額的 17%，或者增加到大約 7% 的水平。

So, is it fair to see 2008 as your 2005 year, where you're coming up with a new platform, and R&D spending is going higher and then for 2009 it's going to come down to a more 14% level?

那麼，將 2008 年視為您的 2005 年，您提出一個新平台，研發支出不斷增加，然後 2009 年將下降到 14% 以上的水平，這是否公平？

First of all, it's not a -- we cannot manage the business as a percentage of sales.

首先，這不是——我們不能按照銷售額的百分比來管理業務。

These R&D blocks are project-driven.

這些研發模塊是項目驅動的。

And the project will get into sales three years later or something.

該項目將在三年後開始銷售。

So, you -- the R&D decision sizing is really much more about how many new projects we would want to introduce, and whether we can afford them.

所以，你 - 研發決策規模實際上更多地是關於我們想要引入多少新項目，以及我們是否能夠負擔得起。

So, we can take a decision to reduce or not.

因此，我們可以決定減少或不減少。

But percentage of sales is remotely related to this.

但是銷售額的百分比與此無關。

What we've said, however, on a regular basis, is that our business could justify up to EUR140 million to EUR150 million per quarter, where we would be able to generate value.

然而，我們經常說的是，我們的業務每季度可以證明高達 1.4 億至 1.5 億歐元的價值，我們將能夠創造價值。

We know that.

我們知道。

At this moment, we are about EUR130 million.

目前，我們約為 1.3 億歐元。

We do not expect short term to move it up, because of the current sales level, which will not justify the profits.

我們預計短期內不會將其推高，因為目前的銷售水平無法證明利潤是合理的。

So, we've decided to cool down on some good ideas we may have.

因此，我們決定對我們可能擁有的一些好想法冷靜下來。

But with EUR130 million, we are able to maximize our set of new products for efficiency costs and also for new generation, like EUV.

但是有了 1.3 億歐元，我們能夠最大限度地提高我們的新產品集的效率成本和新一代產品，如 EUV。

And we feel comfortable that EUR130 million would allow us to get EUV in business by 2010, as we said, for preproduction, and 2011 for ramp.

正如我們所說，1.3 億歐元將使我們能夠在 2010 年之前將 EUV 用於試生產，並在 2011 年用於量產，這讓我們感到很欣慰。

So, in other terms, we will probably stabilize at EUR130 million, except if two things happen.

因此，換句話說，除非發生兩件事，否則我們可能會穩定在 1.3 億歐元。

One, a big accident, let's say it's 2009 is a terrible year, and we are going to show some profitability, so we would be able to reduce a bit, but that would cost, potentially, some months of delay of some products.

第一，一個大事故，假設 2009 年是糟糕的一年，我們將顯示一些盈利能力，所以我們可以減少一點，但這可能會導致某些產品延遲數月。

But again, at this moment, we don't see this to happen.

但同樣，此時此刻，我們認為這不會發生。

Or we get so rich in 2009.

或者我們在 2009 年變得如此富有。

As I said, the pick up is enormous, etc., and then we have two or three of our additional dreams, which will generate more value in 2012/2013, that we can afford.

正如我所說，回升是巨大的，等等，然後我們有兩三個額外的夢想，它們將在 2012/2013 年產生更多的價值，我們可以負擔得起。

Okay.

好的。

And I have a quick follow up.

我有一個快速跟進。

If -- in your slide 29, you mention that you're going to be doing some cost reductions.

如果 - 在您的幻燈片 29 中，您提到您將進行一些成本削減。

Historically, ASML's gross margins have been about 500 basis points lower than your US peers, and you lever some gross margin in the supply chain.

從歷史上看，ASML 的毛利率一直比您的美國同行低 500 個基點左右，而您在供應鏈中利用了一些毛利率。

Are you guys thinking of doing something different in the current cycle to maybe offset the weaker pricing environment?

你們是否正在考慮在當前週期中做一些不同的事情來抵消疲軟的定價環境？

Or is it more of the steps that you have been doing in the past?

還是您過去一直在執行的步驟更多？

Certainly.

當然。

So, first of all, as we've said consistently, we're trying to manage the company around 40%.

因此，首先，正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們正努力將公司的管理權控制在 40% 左右。

And then by improving our efficiency, we will move up the 40% to 45% or so.

然後通過提高我們的效率，我們將提高 40% 到 45% 左右。

But these numbers, I remind you, are based on the fact that we are highly leveraged company, using a lot of suppliers.

但我提醒你，這些數字是基於這樣一個事實，即我們是一家槓桿率很高的公司，使用了很多供應商。

We are an integrator of a lot of things.

我們是很多東西的整合者。

And in there, you've got a major buy, which is a lens.

在那裡，你有一個主要的購買，這是一個鏡頭。

If you corrected for the margin of lens, you could probably correct this to be a model margin between 45% and 50%, not 40%.

如果您校正鏡頭邊距，您可能會將其校正為 45% 到 50% 之間的模型邊距，而不是 40%。

So, be cautious when you compare us to peers or competitors.

因此，當您將我們與同行或競爭對手進行比較時，請務必謹慎。

But having said that, are we still on our plan to move the margin from 40% to 45%?

但話雖如此，我們是否仍在計劃將利潤率從 40% 提高到 45%？

Yes and no.

是和不是。

Yes, because we are working all these efficiency program, which includes cost savings, which includes reduction of the lead time by a major factor.

是的，因為我們正在實施所有這些效率計劃，其中包括成本節約，其中包括縮短交貨時間的一個主要因素。

We are in that moment putting together some ways of manufacturing differently, which will allow us to do that.

在那一刻，我們正在整合一些不同的製造方式，這將使我們能夠做到這一點。

We're working with suppliers to get there.

我們正在與供應商合作以實現這一目標。

We're putting suppliers into Asia, etc.

我們正在把供應商放到亞洲等地。

So, we are moving nicely toward this.

所以，我們正在朝著這個方向前進。

In addition, as I said since the acquisition of Brion, we are going to add more software value on our tool and software is a 70% to 80% margin.

此外，正如我所說，自收購 Brion 以來，我們將在我們的工具和軟件上增加更多的軟件價值，利潤率為 70% 至 80%。

So, the more we're going to sell of these lithography plus, as we call it, or (inaudible) lithography, we're going to move into higher margin.

因此，我們銷售的這些光刻技術越多，我們稱之為（聽不清）光刻技術，我們將進入更高的利潤率。

So, all this is doing well, in fact.

所以，事實上，這一切都做得很好。

We are adding nicely.

我們正在很好地添加。

We're progressing.

我們在進步。

There are no issues.

沒有問題。

The bad news, however, at this moment, is, yes, there is a recession looming.

然而，目前的壞消息是，是的，經濟衰退迫在眉睫。

Yes, our customers are losing money.

是的，我們的客戶正在賠錢。

So, the pressure is higher.

所以，壓力更大。

And yes, the euro is not helping us.

是的，歐元對我們沒有幫助。

So, a lot of the savings that you should have seen already has been eaten up by the fact that, yes, we are under pressure because of the euro.

所以，你應該看到的很多儲蓄已經被事實吃光了，是的，我們因為歐元而承受壓力。

So, we don't expect this to last much longer, and therefore you should start seeing those margin number creep up again.

因此，我們預計這種情況不會持續太久，因此您應該開始看到這些保證金數字再次攀升。

And Eric, I would like to add, if you look at this reference to our Q3 guidance, which if you add it all up, you come to lower than EUR700 million of sales, we guide at around 38% gross margin, which is, if you look at the relative sales decrease as compared to two quarters ago, this is a relatively modest decrease in gross margin, which is mainly attributable to the fact that we have lower coverage of our fixed cost.

埃里克，我想補充一點，如果你看看我們第三季度指南的參考資料，如果你把它全部加起來，你的銷售額將低於 7 億歐元，我們的毛利率約為 38%，即，如果你看一下與兩個季度前相比的相對銷售額下降，毛利率下降相對溫和，這主要是由於我們對固定成本的覆蓋率較低。

So, that means that we are effective in driving down the cost reductions through the manufacturing supply chain.

因此，這意味著我們可以有效地通過製造供應鏈降低成本。

And that will also be noticeable going forward.

這在未來也會很明顯。

So, of the programs that we have started will see -- clearly do have an effect -- already starting in Q4, so -- and that going forward is clearly our focus.

因此，在我們已經開始的計劃中，我們將會看到 - 顯然確實會產生影響 - 已經在第四季度開始，所以 - 向前發展顯然是我們的重點。

We will get these cost reductions through the supply chain, as was explained by Eric.

正如埃里克所解釋的那樣，我們將通過供應鏈降低成本。

Next question, please?

請問下一個問題？

Next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Schafer.

謝弗。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, it's Simon Schafer with Goldman Sachs.

是的，我是高盛的 Simon Schafer。

I wanted to ask a question, just to get the sensitivity right.

我想問一個問題，只是為了讓靈敏度正確。

Am I right in assuming that maybe the lower end of your guidance, that is the 20%, effectively presumes that there is no capacity shipments in the next couple of quarters?

我假設你的指導下限，即 20%，是否有效地假設在接下來的幾個季度沒有產能出貨，我是否正確？

That's right.

這是正確的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Understood.

明白了。

And then, if that's the case, just trying to understand, how would you describe the risk that some of the orders that are pending for immersion actually see some real cancellations, just given, as you actually remarked, some of the capital structures of your customers are not looking as strong as you may have liked them to be?

然後，如果是這種情況，只是想了解一下，您如何描述一些等待沉浸的訂單實際上看到一些真正取消的風險，正如您實際所說的那樣，您的一些資本結構客戶看起來不像您希望的那樣強大？

Maybe that's not the case for the first-tier customers on the NAND side and the DRAM side that have put in the orders, but even they are more subject to, perhaps, budgetary checks than you'd like them to be.

對於已經下訂單的 NAND 端和 DRAM 端的一線客戶來說，情況可能並非如此，但即使是他們，也可能比你希望的更容易受到預算檢查。

So, in simple terms, what are the risks that those actually get canceled in the next six to nine months?

那麼，簡單來說，這些在未來六到九個月內實際被取消的風險是什麼？

No, the risk is extremely small.

不會，風險極小。

In fact, the backlog is okay, it's not excessive.

其實積壓還好，不過分。

So, what we have in there who are customers who really need those units.

因此，我們在那裡擁有真正需要這些設備的客戶。

Would the question becomes more the timing?

問題會變得更時機嗎？

This is where the issue is at this moment, the timing, and often when you -- when they push out a bit they would say, yes, but now I want to change my mind, and I'd like a transition from this machine to this machine.

這就是此時此刻的問題所在，時機，而且通常是當你——當他們推出一點時，他們會說，是的，但現在我想改變主意，我想從這台機器上過渡到這台機器。

So, you've got that type of activities.

所以，你有那種類型的活動。

At this moment we have one or two customers who say, well, now that we look at this, why don't we have immersion tools instead of non-immersion.

此時此刻，我們有一兩個客戶說，好吧，既然我們看到了這個，為什麼我們不用浸入式工具而不是非浸入式工具。

So, we've got in fact two customers in the situation where we are discussing the possibility of upgrading their orders, basically, to immersion.

因此，實際上我們有兩個客戶正在討論將他們的訂單升級到沉浸式體驗的可能性。

So, this type of things is happening, but I would be highly surprised if we have any requests for any cancellation from what we have.

所以，這種事情正在發生，但如果我們有任何取消我們所擁有的東西的請求，我會感到非常驚訝。

Well, when I say any; more than standard two, three, four tools per quarter or something.

好吧，當我說任何時候；每季度超過標準的兩個、三個、四個工具等等。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Maybe just to clarify, so the down 20%, does that assume some type of risk that there's considerable push outs by the first tier memory company -- customers immersion or does that -- is that taken into your assumption?

也許只是為了澄清一下，所以下降 20%，這是否假設了某種類型的風險，即一線內存公司有相當大的推出——客戶沉浸或這樣做——你的假設是否被考慮在內？

No, that's baked into the assumption that there will be mostly emersion, as we said in Q3 and Q4.

不，正如我們在第 3 季度和第 4 季度所說的那樣，這已經融入了將主要出現的假設中。

Q3 I think was 80% of our business will be immersion.

Q3 我認為我們 80% 的業務將是沉浸式的。

Q4 I don't have the specific in my mind, but it's nearly to the same level.

Q4 腦子裡沒有具體的，但是差不多差不多的水平。

And this does not include a lot of immersion.

這還不包括大量的沉浸感。

So in other terms, in the normal circumstances when the business is booming, the leaders of the DRAM business and Flash business would try to outsmart the competitors by pulling in Q1 demand into Q4.

所以換句話說，在業務蓬勃發展的正常情況下，DRAM業務和閃存業務的領導者會試圖通過將第一季度的需求拉到第四季度來超越競爭對手。

That we haven't assumed, because again we don't know when the business will become bullish again to get back into this way of doing business.

我們沒有假設，因為我們再次不知道業務何時會再次看漲以恢復這種經營方式。

Understood.

明白了。

And just a simple follow-up question; just given the cash situation now and the negative reaction in your share price, how's the Company looking at potential share buyback?

只是一個簡單的後續問題；鑑於現在的現金狀況和股價的負面反應，公司如何看待潛在的股票回購？

I know you've got authorization but what is the plan in that respect?

我知道你已經得到授權，但是這方面的計劃是什麼？

Well, I think, like we said at previous calls, we have a cash target of between EUR1 billion and EUR1.5 billion.

好吧，我認為，就像我們在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣，我們的現金目標在 10 億至 15 億歐元之間。

When we generate -- keep generating cash at this level we will be at the point where we could have say, cash in excess of our operational needs.

當我們產生 - 繼續在這個水平上產生現金時，我們將處於我們可以說現金超過我們運營需求的地步。

And we would use that cash to give back to the shareholders, which we think could not be through a regular share buyback program, as you know it, but probably is to take the form of what we did before last year, like a capital repayment and a reverse stock split.

我們會用這筆現金回饋股東，我們認為這不可能通過常規的股票回購計劃，正如你所知，但可能會採取我們去年之前所做的形式，比如資本償還和反向股票分割。

Now, that is something that, because of all the logistics to that, we should need to call an Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting.

現在，由於所有的後勤工作，我們應該召開特別股東大會。

And you have fractions with the reverse stock split.

而且你有反向股票分割的分數。

It's not something you would do for an insignificant amount of money.

這不是你會為了微不足道的錢而做的事情。

You would really need to save up a decent amount of money.

你真的需要存下一筆可觀的錢。

And we would have that.

我們會的。

There is no change in our policy by giving that back through this -- I would call this kind of an instrument.

通過這種方式回饋我們的政策並沒有改變——我稱之為一種工具。

So, there's no change, and if we keep doing what we are doing today, then that will be almost an inevitable thing to happen.

所以，沒有變化，如果我們繼續做我們今天正在做的事情，那麼這幾乎是不可避免的事情。

Great guys, thanks very much.

偉大的傢伙，非常感謝。

Next question, Mr.

下一個問題，先生。

Jim Fontanelli, please state your company name followed by your question.

Jim Fontanelli，請先說明您的公司名稱，然後再說明您的問題。

Jim Fontanelli, Arete Research.

Jim Fontanelli，Arete Research。

I was just wondering about the risk to 1900i shipments in the fourth quarter, given that you expect to start shipping the 1950 in the beginning of '09.

我只是想知道第四季度 1900i 出貨的風險，因為您預計 1950 會在 09 年初開始出貨。

And you talked about cannibalization within the product portfolio, and equally you talked about the risk that customers start to switch products within the backlog.

你談到了產品組合中的蠶食，同樣你談到了客戶開始在積壓中轉換產品的風險。

What risk does the launch of the 1950i present, both in terms of backlog push outs but also potentially 1900i shipment numbers into the fourth quarter?

1950i 的推出存在哪些風險，無論是在積壓訂單推出方面，還是在第四季度潛在的 1900i 出貨量方面？

No, that -- this is our usual business of ensuring flawless transfer from one machine to the other.

不，那是我們確保從一台機器完美傳輸到另一台機器的慣常工作。

We do this every year or so.

我們每年都會這樣做。

The way to do this is that, of course, you keep the price where it is on the 1900, and the 1950 has a higher price.

這樣做的方法是，當然，您將價格保持在 1900 上，而 1950 的價格更高。

So, customers usually accept that.

因此，客戶通常會接受這一點。

Now, what we have done in addition this year and we're going to be much more aggressive, in fact, it's one of the questions regarding margin.

現在，我們今年另外做了什麼，我們將更加積極，事實上，這是關於保證金的問題之一。

We are developing packages very early on to upgrade the older generation.

我們很早就在開發軟件包來升級老一代。

So in other terms, at this moment we are telling the customer, you can buy a 1900 and we will upgrade you with a package in Q1 and that looks like a 1950 or you can buy a 1950.

所以換句話說，此刻我們告訴客戶，你可以購買 1900，我們將在第一季度為你升級一個看起來像 1950 的包，或者你可以購買 1950。

So, therefore, by doing this the customers have no timing issue, they will be upgraded in the field.

因此，通過這樣做，客戶沒有時間問題，他們將在現場進行升級。

And also Jim, you should not forget that if you get push outs of 1900s, which will be translated into 1950s later on, we are limited in the ramp up of the 1950s.

還有吉姆，你不應該忘記，如果你得到 1900 年代的推出，這將在稍後轉化為 1950 年代，我們在 1950 年代的增長中受到限制。

So, that means that you cannot create this big bubble, because we won't be able to ship to anybody.

所以，這意味著你不能製造這個大泡沫，因為我們無法運送給任何人。

So, if you start cancelling your 1900s, which you need in Q4, you might be on the up in Q2 and Q3 of 2009, which is not going to actually service your real needs.

因此，如果您開始取消您在第四季度需要的 1900s，您可能會在 2009 年第二季度和第三季度上升，這實際上並不能滿足您的實際需求。

And that's why you need those particular upgrade packages.

這就是為什麼您需要那些特定的升級包。

Okay that's clear.

好的，這很清楚。

And if I can, just a quick follow up on your capacity flex.

如果可以，請快速跟進您的容量彈性。

Obviously we're seeing the results of the flex from the downside now.

顯然，我們現在正在從不利方面看到彈性的結果。

But you talked about the potential for a rapid shipment increase at some point, over the next whatever, 12 to 18 months.

但是你談到了在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內某個時間點快速增加出貨量的可能性。

Could you just maybe quantify that in a little more detail about what you can handle maybe on a quarter to quarter basis?

您能否更詳細地量化一下您可以按季度處理的內容？

How aggressively you can flex upwards?

您向上彎曲的力度有多大？

Yes, so we have done two things this year and last year, we've done the new factory, which is capable now of doing these new architectures and the EUV.

是的，所以我們今年和去年做了兩件事，我們已經完成了新工廠，它現在能夠做這些新架構和 EUV。

So, that's a fundamental.

所以，這是一個基本的。

So, now we've got more space which we didn't have before.

所以，現在我們擁有了以前沒有的更多空間。

And then we have hired about 200 to 300 workers, which we are at this moment training.

然後我們僱傭了大約 200 到 300 名工人，我們目前正在培訓他們。

And that capacity will be allowing us towards EUR1.3 billion to EUR1.4 billion per quarter.

這種能力將使我們每季度達到 13 億至 14 億歐元。

And these are the type of numbers we think the -- our simulation tool will tell us we need if the market goes back to its historical track.

這些是我們認為的數字類型——如果市場回到其歷史軌道，我們的模擬工具將告訴我們我們需要。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Meunier.

默尼耶。

Please state your company name followed by your question?

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題？

Hello there, it's Francois from Cazenove.

你好，我是來自 Cazenove 的 Francois。

In terms of competition, we heard of this year's situation at Intel and probably you can't comment about it.

在競爭方面，我們聽說了英特爾今年的情況，您可能無法對此發表評論。

But what's your new target for market share for 2008/2009 versus 2007-ish?

但是與 2007 年左右相比，您 2008/2009 年市場份額的新目標是多少？

If you could tell us if you feel there is any other account beyond Intel where you think you're a bit at risk?

如果你能告訴我們你是否覺得除了英特爾之外還有其他任何你認為你有點風險的賬戶？

Yes, that's a good question.

是的，這是個好問題。

So, yes, we are bound by confidentiality here as you know so we're not able to address particulars of a competitor's contract etc.

所以，是的，如您所知，我們在這裡受保密約束，因此我們無法解決競爭對手合同等的細節。

So -- but what we can say is first of all, regarding Intel is, our relationship with Intel does continue, because Intel is, in fact, continuing to give us orders, we've shipped lately 1900s still.

所以——但我們首先可以說的是，關於英特爾，我們與英特爾的關係確實在繼續，因為英特爾實際上繼續給我們訂單，我們最近還在 1900 年代發貨。

And we are working on multiple nodes.

我們正在多個節點上工作。

So, clearly here there is, whatever you may have heard may have to be taken with a grain of salt.

因此，很明顯，無論您聽到什麼，都必須持保留態度。

The value proposition that we have in immersion is still unique.

我們沉浸式的價值主張仍然是獨一無二的。

You can look at the specification of our customer -- of our competitors.

你可以看看我們的客戶——我們的競爭對手的規格。

The 1900 even and of course the 1950 -- the 1900 has a 1.35NA.

1900 甚至還有 1950——1900 的數值孔徑為 1.35。

It has 1.

它有 1。

-- 131 wafer per hour spec.

-- 每小時 131 個晶圓規格。

It has a 7 nanometer overlay.

它有一個 7 納米的覆蓋層。

These three points which allows you to do chips with a very tight shrink capability and cost effectively at 131 wafer per hour.

這三點使您能夠以每小時 131 片晶圓的速度生產出具有非常嚴格的收縮能力和成本效益的芯片。

This is still fundamentally unique.

這在根本上仍然是獨一無二的。

Nothing has changed in the market.

市場沒有任何變化。

The nearest competitor has a 1.3NA, which doesn't allow the same CD, the NA -- the overlay is maybe 30% or 40% worse than we have.

最近的競爭對手有 1.3NA，它不允許使用相同的 CD，即 NA——疊加層可能比我們的差 30% 或 40%。

And the speed is maybe 40% lower.

而且速度可能會降低 40%。

So, you are talking about -- that has not changed in terms of product.

所以，你說的是——在產品方面沒有改變。

If we had the 1950 you can even calculate the improvement to this position.

如果我們有 1950，您甚至可以計算出對這個位置的改進。

So, we're not overly worried in the situation of comparison of a respect to spec for very tight processes.

因此，我們並不過分擔心比較嚴格流程的規範方面的情況。

Now, if some customers may want to have, I would call, less critical lithography -- immersion lithography layers to be done.

現在，如果一些客戶可能想要，我會稱之為不那麼關鍵的光刻——要完成的浸沒式光刻層。

In which case our effective -- better spec may not have the full value.

在這種情況下，我們有效的——更好的規格可能沒有全部價值。

It would have the value of the speed, but the overlay and the NA would only be useful in critical layers or critical processes, not so much less critical.

它將具有速度的價值，但疊加層和 NA 僅在關鍵層或關鍵過程中有用，而不是那麼重要。

So, on this one this will be always where we will be more vulnerable as we are in KrF, as we are in ArF, as we are in i-Line.

所以，在這個問題上，這將永遠是我們在 KrF、ArF 和 i-Line 中更容易受到攻擊的地方。

So, for these types of segments we have to be cautious and offer the market products, which are effective and still addressing those non-critical layers.

因此，對於這些類型的細分市場，我們必須謹慎並提供市場產品，這些產品是有效的並且仍在解決那些非關鍵層。

And this is where you usually would be at risk of losing a bit of market share and etc., etc.

這就是你通常會面臨失去一些市場份額等風險的地方。

But in total we will still think or we still think with our speed, we can be highly competitive and that we may -- the business, we may lose are probably more strategic type things, like when we -- spec was not the issue, or when our competitors is crazy in terms of price.

但總的來說，我們仍然會認為，或者我們仍然會以我們的速度認為，我們可以具有很強的競爭力，而且我們可能 - 我們可能會失去的業務可能是更具戰略性的事情，比如當我們 - 規格不是問題時，或者當我們的競爭對手在價格方面瘋狂時。

So, that could definitely happen.

所以，這肯定會發生。

But in view of the situation, we still reiterate our market share target of 70%.

但鑑於這種情況，我們仍然重申我們70%的市場份額目標。

At this moment, we are 65%-ish in value.

目前，我們的價值為 65% 左右。

And we believe we can get to 70% within the timeframe we said, which is by 2010 or so and that hasn't changed.

我們相信我們可以在我們所說的時間範圍內達到 70%，這是到 2010 年左右，並且沒有改變。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德斯潘德。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hello, Sandeep Deshpande, JP Morgan.

你好，摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Again talking about your market share, the other customer, the Japanese customer Elpida is making a decision on choosing a photography supplier.

再說一下你的市場份額，另外一個客戶，日本客戶爾必達正在做選擇攝影供應商的決定。

You I believe have been qualified at Elpida.

我相信你已經在爾必達獲得了資格。

At what timeframe should we expect orders from that customer to come through?

我們應該在什麼時間範圍內收到該客戶的訂單？

Or is there still doubt whether decisions have been made within that company about placing orders, as well of course associated companies with Elpida?

或者是否仍然懷疑該公司內部是否已經做出關於下訂單的決定，當然還有與 Elpida 相關的公司？

Yes, so the Elpida evaluation is going on.

是的，Elpida 評估正在進行中。

I think what I said is that there was an internal plan by Elpida -- there is an internal plan by Elpida to close the qualification of our tool within weeks or so.

我想我所說的是 Elpida 有一個內部計劃——Elpida 有一個內部計劃在幾週左右的時間內完成我們工具的鑑定。

At this moment we expect it to happen by September-ish; so far so good.

目前我們預計它會在 9 月左右發生；到目前為止，一切都很好。

Everything is okay.

一切正常。

And the question at this moment is threefold.

而此刻的問題是三方面的。

One is Elpida has now to decide when they ramp 5X nanometer.

一是 Elpida 現在必須決定何時推出 5X 納米。

And I will not tell you what it is because that's internal data.

我不會告訴你它是什麼，因為那是內部數據。

So -- but you can understand that that date will tell us when we get the Pos.

所以 - 但你可以理解，那個日期會告訴我們何時獲得 Pos。

It's more than now qualification.

比現在更有資格了。

It's more like when do they really want to ramp.

這更像是他們什麼時候真正想要爬坡。

And this is being discussed internally.

這正在內部討論。

And by the way one of the decision points is what is the DRAM price looking like etc., and how to get capital.

順便說一句，決策點之一是 DRAM 價格如何，以及如何獲得資金。

So, that is clearly on the mind of every DRAM vendors.

因此，這顯然是每個 DRAM 供應商都在考慮的問題。

And two, there will be a conclusion of negotiations.

第二，談判將會結束。

And I expect the negotiations to drag on, until the point where they have to put a PO, which would be normal behavior.

我預計談判會持續下去，直到他們必須提交 PO，這是正常行為。

So, in other terms at this moment, looking good; negotiation ongoing until the customer needs to put the PO plus the lead time so that they're getting ramp in the 5X ramp.

所以，換句話說，此時此刻，看起來不錯；談判一直在進行，直到客戶需要將 PO 加上提前期，這樣他們才能實現 5 倍的增長。

And just one follow-up Eric, just to reconcile, you're talking about worst case situation of 20% revenue decline versus when you came to market in the second quarter you were slightly more bullish.

只是一個後續行動，埃里克，只是為了調和，你說的是收入下降 20% 的最壞情況，而你在第二季度進入市場時稍微樂觀一些。

Have you seen your customers?

你見過你的客戶嗎？

You said also that you have not seen real order cancellations.

你還說你沒有看到真正的訂單取消。

But what is that you're seeing from the customers, that customers just don't want to order at this point?

但是，您從客戶那裡看到的是什麼，客戶此時只是不想訂購？

Or they're telling you that we may push out orders into 2009?

或者他們告訴您我們可能會將訂單推遲到 2009 年？

How is -- what's the customer behavior you saw, which made you change your stance slightly?

怎麼樣 - 你看到的客戶行為是什麼，這讓你稍微改變了你的立場？

Yes, this is a good question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

You remember that most of -- every time we speak, Peter and I, we try to relate to not a forecast but a simulation.

你還記得大多數——每次我們說話時，彼得和我，我們都試圖將模擬與預測聯繫起來。

And then we put the simulation in front of our order activity to give you to some feedback.

然後我們將模擬放在我們的訂單活動之前，以便為您提供一些反饋。

So, the simulation means if the world was running with some statistics and growth that would be the number of tools necessary.

因此，模擬意味著如果世界運行時有一些統計數據和增長，那將是必要的工具數量。

And this hasn't changed.

而這並沒有改變。

We believe that we were right -- we are still right that there is need for them to buy capacity if they have to make the numbers of chips necessary as per what the analysts say.

我們相信我們是對的——我們仍然是對的，如果他們必須按照分析師所說的那樣製造必要數量的芯片，他們就需要購買產能。

So, we are still bullish there.

所以，我們仍然在那裡看漲。

There is growth opportunity.

有成長機會。

What surprised us, however, during the period of three months is basically the economy is so uncertain that every customer, even the bullish ones, even the one who are just sitting on machines that are 110% of their capacity if you know what I mean, that they are running on the max, max, max, are telling us wait.

然而，讓我們感到驚訝的是，在這三個月的時間裡，基本上經濟是如此不確定，以至於每一位客戶，甚至是看漲的客戶，甚至是那些剛剛坐在產能 110% 的機器上的客戶，如果你明白我的意思的話，他們在最大，最大，最大上運行，告訴我們等待。

We just want to know how this economy is evolving.

我們只想知道這種經濟是如何發展的。

So, nothing has changed at all on all the economics of litho, of our market share, of the need for them to have capacity and immersion of the transition nodes.

因此，光刻的所有經濟學、我們的市場份額、他們對過渡節點的容量和沈浸的需求都沒有任何改變。

But everybody says you're not going to invest, not knowing if the consumer is going to do something.

但每個人都說你不會投資，不知道消費者是否會做某事。

If the banking sector and JP Morgan is going to collapse, sorry Sandeep, and demand a complete wait and see attitude.

如果銀行業和摩根大通即將倒閉，對不起 Sandeep，並要求採取完全的觀望態度。

But as I said be cautious.

但正如我所說，要謹慎。

There is still the same people are saying, however, I may come back and ask you for these tools.

仍然有同樣的人在說，但是，我可能會回來向您索要這些工具。

And in fact we have some of them even with immersion tools for Q4, which are putting us into a situation of wait and see.

事實上，我們有一些甚至在第 4 季度使用了沉浸式工具，這讓我們處於觀望的境地。

So, what has changed is the wait and see, nothing else.

所以，改變的只是觀望，沒有別的。

Thank you Eric.

謝謝埃里克。

Next question Mr.

下一個問題先生

Ramel.

拉梅爾。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes good afternoon, Jerome Ramel from Exane BNP Paribas.

是的，下午好，Exane BNP Paribas 的 Jerome Ramel。

Just to come back for the pricing pressure, you say you are facing pricing pressure.

只是為了定價壓力回來，你說你面臨定價壓力。

But on the other hand, you say the pricing for the immersion tools remain the same.

但另一方面，您說浸入式工具的定價保持不變。

So, I'd just like to understand what kind of pricing pressure you are seeing, if you could quantify it, and for which tools?

所以，我只想了解您看到什麼樣的定價壓力，如果您可以量化它，以及使用哪些工具？

Okay, yes, that's a good question.

好的，是的，這是個好問題。

So, the mechanism of this type of business is to have negotiation on a yearly basis.

因此，此類業務的機制是每年進行一次談判。

And each of the customers has its own cycles.

每個客戶都有自己的周期。

Most of them would be negotiating in the Q3 timeframe.

他們中的大多數人將在第三季度的時間框架內進行談判。

A lot of them are negotiating in the Q4 timeframe and some would be negotiating in the -- the [lagged] would be negotiating Q1-ish.

他們中的很多人都在第四季度的時間框架內進行談判，有些人會在 - [滯後] 會在第一季度進行談判。

So, during this period of time, you close volume purchase agreement, like when you sell an Airbus or a Boeing.

所以，在這段時間裡，你關閉了批量購買協議，就像你出售空客或波音時一樣。

And then you fix your price and that will be based on a one year or a two year basis or a technology basis.

然後你確定你的價格，這將基於一年或兩年的基礎或技術基礎。

Intel, for instance, is more on the technology basis and Samsung would be more on a one year basis, etc., that type of thing.

例如，英特爾更多地以技術為基礎，而三星更多地以一年為基礎，等等。

So when you will say price pressure, we don't mean like in the memory business, where you have a price pressure for next quarter.

所以當你說價格壓力時，我們並不是說在內存業務中，下個季度你有價格壓力。

You're talking about the price pressure for the next negotiation.

你說的是下一次談判的價格壓力。

And this negotiation lasts three to six months.

而這次談判持續了三到六個月。

And so, during the period you know that you are going to be hard pushed by your customer saying, well, I'm losing money, why shouldn't you?

因此，在此期間，您知道您將被客戶逼迫說，好吧，我正在賠錢，你為什麼不呢？

And then you start from there.

然後你從那裡開始。

And that's what we are talking about.

這就是我們正在談論的。

At this moment, therefore, it's difficult for me to say that we know what our price position will be 2009.

因此，目前我很難說我們知道 2009 年的價格狀況。

But because we are well prepared for this pressure, of course, we are here to offer value to customers.

但是因為我們已經為這種壓力做好了充分的準備，所以我們當然會在這里為客戶提供價值。

So, when we -- they are going to confront us because they haven't yet fully done this, and ask us well we need to have a better solution from you.

所以，當我們——他們要面對我們時，因為他們還沒有完全做到這一點，並要求我們很好，我們需要從你那裡得到更好的解決方案。

We have to come up with a better solution all the time.

我們必須一直想出更好的解決方案。

And that's where I am pretty proud with the type of effort.

這就是我對這種努力感到非常自豪的地方。

What you've seen in my speech, I said we are introducing the TWINSCAN H.

你在我的演講中看到的，我說我們正在介紹 TWINSCAN H。

It's the first time I say this by the way.

順便說一句，這是我第一次這麼說。

I usually hide to you the different versions of TWINSCAN.

我通常向您隱藏 TWINSCAN 的不同版本。

But this one is a version which is 15% faster than the older one.

但是這個版本比舊版本快 15%。

So, guess what?

那麼，你猜怎麼著？

That means I'm going to sell the customer that they are getting 15% price reduction from this by only keeping the same price.

這意味著我要向客戶推銷他們只需保持相同的價格即可從中獲得 15% 的降價。

But that machine, the H1950, in addition has a different lens and a different overlay capability, so that's even value.

但是那台機器，H1950，另外還有不同的鏡頭和不同的覆蓋能力，所以這很有價值。

So, you are now going to hit the customer who is pushing you and say look first of all cost-wise I'm really helping; 15% improvement of speed.

所以，你現在要打壓你的客戶並說首先看成本方面我真的在幫助;速度提高 15%。

And secondly, I'm bringing value to the equation, because you can shrink further.

其次，我正在為等式帶來價值，因為你可以進一步縮小。

And that discussion will lead hopefully to us keeping margin or improving margin in the normal circumstances.

該討論有望使我們在正常情況下保持利潤率或提高利潤率。

So, that's why we are -- I think we are well positioned.

所以，這就是為什麼我們 - 我認為我們處於有利地位。

But it would be stupid for me not to say that when you are a euro based company and when you are in recession you are not getting significant pressure.

但如果我不說當你是一家以歐元為基礎的公司並且當你處於衰退中時你不會承受巨大壓力，那將是愚蠢的。

Okay.

好的。

And just maybe a follow-up, when you say that in the worst case scenario you could have sales down 20%, did it compare to the adjusted sales you published today or to the previous sales of EUR3.8 billion you achieved last year?

也許只是一個後續行動，當你說在最壞的情況下你的銷售額可能下降 20%，它是與你今天公佈的調整後銷售額相比還是與你去年實現的 38 億歐元銷售額相比？

It's the EUR3.8 billion multiplied by either 0.9 or 0.8, it will be somewhere in between.

它是 38 億歐元乘以 0.9 或 0.8，它將介於兩者之間。

Okay thank you.

好的謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen we have time for one last question.

女士們，先生們，我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

If you're unable to get through on the call and still have a question, feel free to call ASML's investor relations department either in the US or in Europe.

如果您無法接通電話但仍有疑問，請隨時致電美國或歐洲的 ASML 投資者關係部門。

And now, Jose, may we have the last question please?

現在，何塞，我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Yes, the last question is from Mr.

是的，最後一個問題來自於先生。

Odon de Laporte.

奧東德拉波特。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Most of my questions have been already answered, but maybe you can provide us with guidance for CapEx in Q3 and Q4 '08?

我的大部分問題已經得到解答，但也許您可以為我們提供 08 年第三季度和第四季度資本支出的指導？

CapEx guidance for '08, we have split CapEx for this year evenly.

08 年的資本支出指南，我們將今年的資本支出平均分配。

So, the first half CapEx you can take as the guidance for the second half.

因此，您可以將上半年的資本支出作為下半年的指導。

Okay thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Well, ladies and gentlemen I think that concludes the call.

好吧，女士們，先生們，我認為電話會議到此結束。

We'd like to thank you for calling and listening in and we'll look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我們要感謝您的來電和傾聽，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Operator, if you could close the call out officially we'd appreciate it.

接線員，如果您能正式關閉呼叫，我們將不勝感激。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2008 second quarter results conference call.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2008 年第二季度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating, you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。