艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the ASML 2007 fourth quarter and annual results conference call on January 16, 2008.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 2008 年 1 月 16 日舉行的 ASML 2007 年第四季度和年度業績電話會議。

Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的介紹中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

ASML介紹完之後，會有提問的機會。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

我現在想把會議轉交給先生。

Craig DeYoung.

克雷格·德揚。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，運營商。

Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好，早上好。

This is Craig DeYoung, Investor Relations at ASML.

我是 ASML 投資者關係部的 Craig DeYoung。

Welcome to our investor call and webcast.

歡迎收聽我們的投資者電話和網絡直播。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2007 fourth quarter and annual results.

今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2007年第四季度和全年業績。

Hosting this call today are ASML's CEO, Eric Meurice, and CFO Peter Wennink.

今天主持這個電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和首席財務官 Peter Wennink。

I would like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation, and you can find our press release and presentation on our website at www.asml.com.

我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，您可以在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到我們的新聞稿和演示文稿。

The length of the call today will be 60 minutes.

今天的通話時間為 60 分鐘。

Now, at this point, I'd like to turn over the call to Eric Meurice for a brief introduction.

現在，在這一點上，我想把電話轉給 Eric Meurice 做一個簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thank you for attending our results conference call.

感謝您參加我們的結果電話會議。

As it is now our habit in our quarterly conference calls, we will split the introduction in two parts.

按照現在我們在季度電話會議中的習慣，我們將把介紹分成兩部分。

Peter will start with a review of our Q4 financial performance, with added comments on our short-term outlook.

Peter 將首先回顧我們第四季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表評論。

I will complete the introduction with a longer-term view.

我將以更長遠的眼光來完成介紹。

And following the introduction, we will open up to -- the call for questions.

在介紹之後，我們將開放-- 問題徵集。

Thank you, Eric, and welcome to everyone.

謝謝你，埃里克，歡迎大家。

First of all, I would like to review our annual and Q4 results highlights.

首先，我想回顧一下我們的年度和第四季度業績要點。

I am pleased to report that the quarter developed as we had anticipated.

我很高興地報告本季度的發展符合我們的預期。

Q4 revenues were EUR973m, nicely within the band of sales that we achieved in the past six quarters.

第 4 季度的收入為 9.73 億歐元，很好地處於我們過去六個季度實現的銷售額範圍內。

The strong fourth quarter results leads us to record high sales of EUR3.1b -- sorry, EUR3.8m for 2007, which is up 6% versus 2006 net sales, being in line with the revenue growth guidance given by us in the earnings call this time last year.

強勁的第四季度業績使我們的銷售額創下歷史新高，達到 310 億歐元——對不起，2007 年為 380 萬歐元，比 2006 年的淨銷售額增長 6%，符合我們在財報電話會議上給出的收入增長指導去年的這個時候。

A 40% gross margin and operating expenses of EUR186m resulted in an operating margin on the quarter of 21.6% versus 22.4% in Q3.

40% 的毛利率和 1.86 億歐元的運營費用導致本季度的運營利潤率為 21.6%，而第三季度為 22.4%。

And that reflects our increased R&D spend in Q4, which lead to a total amount of EUR129m.

這反映了我們在第四季度增加了研發支出，總金額達到 1.29 億歐元。

Cash from operations was EUR72m in Q4 and EUR670m for the total year.

第四季度的運營現金為 7200 萬歐元，全年為 6.7 億歐元。

We ended 2007 with around EUR1.3b in cash.

2007 年底，我們擁有約 1.3 歐元的現金。

Some of the significant events impacting our cash balance during the year were the inflow of EUR600m resulting from our inaugural Eurobond and an outflow of EUR200m for acquisitions, and distributions to our shareholders in total of about EUR1.4b.

年內影響我們現金餘額的一些重大事件包括我們首發歐洲債券產生的 6 億歐元流入和用於收購的 2 億歐元流出，以及向股東分配的總額約為 1.4b 歐元。

Through 2007, the number of outstanding ASML shares decreased from 477m to 436m; that's a reduction of 41m shares.

2007 年，ASML 流通股數量從 4.77 億股減少到 4.36 億股；那是減少了 4100 萬股。

And consistent with our policy, we will maintain a target for cash reserves of between EUR1b and EUR1.5b.

根據我們的政策，我們將維持 1b 至 1.5b 歐元的現金儲備目標。

We will complete the existing share buyback program for 14m shares, 9m of which were already acquired in 2007, and we will continue with our commitment to return to shareholders cash generated above our cash balance target.

我們將完成現有的 1400 萬股股票回購計劃，其中 900 萬股已於 2007 年收購，我們將繼續履行我們的承諾，向股東返還超過現金餘額目標的現金。

ASML's order backlog as of the end of the year remained essentially flat at around EUR1.7b, which included 89 systems with an average selling price of EUR19.1m.

截至年底，ASML 的訂單積壓基本持平，約為 1.7 億歐元，其中包括 89 個系統，平均售價為 1,910 萬歐元。

For comparison, the ASML backlog at the end of September 2007 was valued at around EUR1.8b, which included 90 systems with an average selling price of EUR19.7m.

相比之下，2007 年 9 月底 ASML 積壓訂單的價值約為 1.8b 歐元，其中包括 90 個系統，平均售價為 1970 萬歐元。

Orders booked in the fourth quarter, they served in large part the intent of our memory customers to move to new [plus] nodes in NAND Flash and in DRAM production.

在第四季度預訂的訂單在很大程度上滿足了我們的內存客戶的意圖，即轉移到 NAND 閃存和 DRAM 生產中的新 [plus] 節點。

12 new orders for immersion tools were placed by customers, leaving the year-end immersion backlog at 34 systems.

客戶下達了 12 個新的浸入式工具訂單，年末浸入式積壓訂單為 34 個系統。

Interestingly, near equal numbers of ArF and KrF-based systems were ordered in Q4.

有趣的是，第四季度訂購了幾乎相同數量的基於 ArF 和 KrF 的系統。

That is to support the expansion of leading-edge production.

那就是支持擴大前沿生產。

Next to the memory segment, that I think again led the way in the ordering in Q4, was that we booked a significant number of tools by our IDM customers.

在內存部分旁邊，我認為在第四季度的訂購中再次領先，是我們的 IDM 客戶預訂了大量工具。

As in the previous quarter, we saw, again, a low level of orders from our foundry customers, while we continued to see the factories run at the highest overall utilization in the last 15 months.

與上一季度一樣，我們再次看到代工客戶的訂單水平較低，而我們繼續看到工廠在過去 15 個月中以最高的整體利用率運行。

And the 8% foundry level in our order book is the lowest percentage on record at ASML.

我們訂單中 8% 的代工水平是 ASML 有記錄以來的最低百分比。

We expect to ship 50 units in Q1 2008, with an average selling price of EUR16.3m.

我們預計 2008 年第一季度出貨 50 台，平均售價為 1630 萬歐元。

And although the market has recently been nervous, we still expect very healthy sales levels for Q1 of above EUR900m.

儘管市場最近很緊張，但我們仍然預計第一季度的銷售額將超過 9 億歐元，非常健康。

That's on the back of the strength of technology transitions by flash memory and DRAM customers, making this, by the way, the first quarter of 2008, the eighth consecutive quarter with sales above this EUR900m level.

這是在閃存和 DRAM 客戶的技術轉型力量的支持下，順帶一提，這是 2008 年第一季度銷售額連續第八個季度超過 9 億歐元的水平。

Regarding Q1 bookings expectations, we acknowledge the potential weakness due to the global economic sentiment, and that this indeed will cause our customers to take a prudent view on capital expenditures for the time being.

關於第一季度的預訂預期，我們承認全球經濟情緒可能導致疲軟，這確實會導致我們的客戶暫時對資本支出持謹慎態度。

They will likely await more positive market signs before confirming significant numbers of new orders.

在確認大量新訂單之前，他們可能會等待更多積極的市場跡象。

However, I think ASML's backlog at the end of 2007 reflects some of the current market trends and supports a strong first half.

不過，我認為 ASML 在 2007 年底的積壓反映了當前的一些市場趨勢，並支持強勁的上半年。

Number one is the backlog, at 89 units, of close to EUR1.7b, 80% of which is deliverable in the first half.

第一個是積壓訂單，數量為 89 個，接近 EUR1.7b，其中 80% 可在上半年交付。

Secondly, immersion technology represents 60% of the EUR1.7b backlog, being EUR1b of expected immersion shipments in the first half -- sorry, EUR1b of total immersion in the backlog.

其次，浸入式技術佔 EUR1.7b 積壓訂單的 60%，即上半年預期浸入式出貨量的 1b 歐元——對不起，總浸入式積壓訂單中的 1b 歐元。

And thirdly, we see solid IDM demand of approximately EUR440m, that's 26% of the backlog, which we think underpins the non-memory portion of the backlog.

第三，我們看到約 4.4 億歐元的穩定 IDM 需求，佔積壓訂單的 26%，我們認為這支撐了積壓訂單的非內存部分。

And fourth, that we have a fairly limited exposure to the second tier DRAM customers, that being only approximately EUR200m in the backlog, most of which are technology driven.

第四，我們對二線 DRAM 客戶的接觸相當有限，積壓訂單中只有大約 2 億歐元，其中大部分是技術驅動的。

So, in summary, we still remain positive about our market opportunities this year, in view of the large immersion technology needs.

因此，總而言之，鑑於大量的沉浸式技術需求，我們對今年的市場機會仍然持樂觀態度。

The high level of capacity utilization, specifically at our foundry customers, and the relatively low level of semiconductor inventory, and based on the independent IC unit growth forecasts.

產能利用率高，特別是在我們的代工客戶，半導體庫存水平相對較低，並且基於獨立 IC 單位增長預測。

So, now I would like to turn back to Eric to the longer-term view.

所以，現在我想回到埃里克的長遠觀點。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Peter has highlighted ASML's record revenues and net profit for 2007.

彼得強調了 ASML 2007 年創紀錄的收入和淨利潤。

Indeed, we ended 2007 with a 6% increase in revenues and finished the year with a net profit of 18.1% of sales, which is a record profit on record sales.

事實上，我們在 2007 年底的收入增長了 6%，並以佔銷售額的 18.1% 的淨利潤結束了這一年，這是創紀錄銷售額的創紀錄利潤。

We also marked a return on invested capital of about 50%, 49.7% for the year, which is also a fairly commendable performance.

我們的投資資本回報率也達到了50%左右，全年達到了49.7%，這也是一個不錯的表現。

This has been no small achievement in the environment of accelerated technology demands and fierce competition.

這在技術需求加速、競爭激烈的環境下取得了不小的成績。

We've been able to increase our market share further, to our estimate of about 65% for the year 2007 from 63% in 2006.

我們已經能夠進一步增加我們的市場份額，我們估計 2007 年的市場份額從 2006 年的 63% 增加到大約 65%。

However proud we might be of our accomplishments this past year, we must now look, obviously, to 2008 and beyond.

無論我們對過去一年的成就感到多麼自豪，顯然我們現在必須展望 2008 年及以後。

For 2008, and as Peter discussed, we are currently operating in an environment of overall global economic uncertainty, which has led to significant adjustments over the past few weeks in different industries.

對於 2008 年，正如 Peter 所討論的那樣，我們目前在全球經濟總體不確定的環境中運營，這導致過去幾週不同行業發生了重大調整。

In these uncertain times, I would like to emphasize, however, ASML's privileged position.

然而，在這些不確定的時期，我想強調 ASML 的特權地位。

First, ASML operates as a pure player in semiconductor lithography, which is a market which has become much less market cycle dependent, as two mechanisms compensate for each other.

首先，ASML 純粹是半導體光刻領域的參與者，該市場的市場週期依賴性已大大降低，因為兩種機制相互補償。

In boom times, demand for lithography is fed by the need for trailing edge technology capacity.

在繁榮時期，對光刻技術的需求是由對前沿技術能力的需求提供的。

And in slower times, demand for lithography is dominated by leading edge technology needed to achieve the cost levels and the access to new markets required by customers.

在較慢的時期，對光刻的需求主要由實現成本水平和進入客戶所需的新市場所需的前沿技術主導。

We again confirm that this mechanism is currently in action, as 60% of our large backlog is covered by leading edge immersion products, which compensate for the slower trailing edge capacity orders.

我們再次確認該機制目前正在發揮作用，因為我們 60% 的大量積壓訂單由前沿浸入式產品覆蓋，這彌補了較慢的後緣容量訂單。

That is point number one of our privileged position.

這是我們特權地位的第一點。

Point number two regards growth capability.

第二點關於增長能力。

ASML's privileged position, in this case, is related to the overall lithography market's significant long-term growth potential, supported by technology evolution roadmap of the semiconductor manufacturers and the accelerating need for and cost of leading edge technology.

在這種情況下，ASML 的優勢地位與整個光刻市場的顯著長期增長潛力有關，半導體製造商的技術發展路線圖以及對前沿技術的加速需求和成本的支持。

First of all, competition in the DRAM market has caused a dramatic falling of DRAM prices.

首先，DRAM市場的競爭導致DRAM價格大幅下跌。

In response, leading manufacturers are acting with urgency in choosing to pursue device shrink for lower cost to the 5X nanometer litho node and ramping months before their original plans, while retiring - this is an important point - while retiring older 200 millimeter capacity.

作為回應，領先的製造商正在採取緊急行動，選擇追求設備縮小以降低 5X 納米光刻節點的成本，並比他們的原計劃提前幾個月提高產量，同時淘汰舊的 200 毫米容量，這是一個重要的點。

So that's one of the drivers of growth.

所以這是增長的驅動力之一。

The second driver of growth is NAND manufacturers who are continuing on their aggressive pursuit for higher density, to lower the cost of the device but also to address their expansion into markets with increased density.

增長的第二個驅動力是 NAND 製造商，他們繼續積極追求更高的密度，以降低設備成本，同時也致力於向更高密度的市場擴張。

This involves adding production capacity at the 5X nanometer litho node but also, in parallel, ramping production volume at the 4X litho node.

這涉及增加 5X 納米光刻節點的生產能力，同時也增加 4X 光刻節點的產量。

That is the second engine of growth.

這是第二個增長引擎。

Third engine, the foundry manufacturers, which haven't been pursuing a lot of capital expenditure in the past two years, are starting to see volume increase in the leading edge 65 nanometer nodes and are starting to enjoy very good utilization rates.

第三個引擎，代工製造商，過去兩年沒有追求大量的資本支出，開始看到前沿 65 納米節點的產量增加，並開始享受非常好的利用率。

The fourth point which drives growth is that we believe that the new technologies required for the future, already in 2008 but significantly in 2009, will require significant use of lithography as double patterning, the technology of choice, will increase numbers -- the number of processing steps.

推動增長的第四點是，我們相信，未來所需的新技術（已經在 2008 年出現，但在 2009 年顯著）將需要大量使用光刻技術，因為雙圖案化技術是首選技術，將增加數量——加工步驟。

So what I said, one, privileged situation because of the fact that the market is becoming less cycle dependent, two, that the market is overall sitting on a growth trajectory and, three, ASML operates a winning business model, enabling further growth.

所以我說的是，第一，由於市場對周期的依賴性越來越小，因此處於有利地位，第二，市場總體上處於增長軌道，第三，ASML 運營著一種成功的商業模式，實現了進一步的增長。

By leveraging its size, in particular its R&D budget potential and its enormous know-how accumulated for now seven years on a differentiated product platform, the TWINSCAN, ASML is able to achieve above-average market share in the leading edge lithography market segment which, as said, currently is one growing very fast.

通過利用其規模，特別是其研發預算潛力和七年來在差異化產品平台 TWINSCAN 上積累的大量專業知識，ASML 能夠在領先的光刻市場領域取得高於平均水平的市場份額，其中，如前所述，目前是一個增長非常快的公司。

Indeed, we expect to potentially double our sales of immersion technology in 2008 in comparison with 2007.

事實上，與 2007 年相比，我們預計 2008 年浸入式技術的銷售額可能翻一番。

Our immersion products are the industry standard now.

我們的浸入式產品現在是行業標準。

Having -- after having shipped 35 immersion systems in 2007, we now carry 34 XT1900i products unit backlog in 2008.

在 2007 年交付了 35 個沉浸式系統之後，我們現在在 2008 年有 34 個 XT1900i 產品單元積壓。

We have now had more than 8m wafers processed on our immersion platform, up from 3.5m last quarter.

我們現在已經在我們的浸入式平台上處理了超過 800 萬片晶圓，高於上一季度的 350 萬片。

These systems are running consistently at production levels about 2,100 wafers per day and per tool.

這些系統在每天和每個工具大約 2,100 個晶圓的生產水平上持續運行。

This is creating a significant experience base for the customers at transitioning into production.

這為過渡到生產的客戶創造了重要的經驗基礎。

We have 20 customers with active immersion manufacturing or process development programs in place.

我們有 20 家客戶實施了積極的浸入式製造或工藝開發計劃。

So, in conclusion, as we consider a semi long-term trajectory for growth and its cycle robustness, we confirm our optimism for the development of our market position in 2008 and beyond.

因此，總而言之，當我們考慮增長的半長期軌跡及其周期穩健性時，我們確認了我們對 2008 年及以後市場地位發展的樂觀態度。

Now, Peter and I will be happy to take your questions.

現在，彼得和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session, but beforehand I would like to ask you that you kindly limit your question to one, with one short follow-up if necessary.

女士們，先生們，接線員會立即指導您了解問答環節的流程，但在此之前，我想請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，如有必要，可以進行一個簡短的跟進。

This will allow us to get in as many callers as possible.

這將使我們能夠接聽盡可能多的來電者。

And operator, if we could have your instructions and the first question, please.

接線員，請問您的指示和第一個問題。

Of course.

當然。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Today's first question is from Simon Schaefer.

今天的第一個問題來自 Simon Schaefer。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

That's Goldman Sachs.

那就是高盛。

My first question would be you talked about the 200 millimeter capacity retirement in the DRAM industry.

我的第一個問題是你談到了 DRAM 行業的 200 毫米容量退役。

I was wondering whether you could share with us how many facilities you thought were being retired and what type of timeframe you're looking at there.

我想知道您是否可以與我們分享您認為有多少設施將被淘汰，以及您正在尋找什麼樣的時間表。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

This is a very precise question.

這是一個非常精確的問題。

To this precise question, I may be forced to go for a precise answer, unfortunately.

不幸的是，對於這個精確的問題，我可能被迫尋求一個精確的答案。

So at this moment these are projects and they are being discussed with different customers.

所以目前這些是項目，正在與不同的客戶討論。

And we are, at this very moment, working on four major 200 millimeter DRAM retirements.

就在此時此刻，我們正致力於四項主要的 200 毫米 DRAM 退役。

Four fabs?

四個晶圓廠？

Four fabs, not four --

四個晶圓廠，不是四個——

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks for that detail.

感謝您提供的詳細信息。

And my second question would be what percentage of your order book is with your top three customers now?

我的第二個問題是，您的前三名客戶現在的訂單佔您訂單的百分比是多少？

And how does that compare to, let's say, six months ago or so, or nine months ago or so?

與大約六個月前或大約九個月前相比，這又如何呢？

Do we have the data?

我們有數據嗎？

We're looking for the exact data.

我們正在尋找確切的數據。

I'm going to try to answer you with a trend at this moment.

我這會兒試著用一個趨勢來回答你。

As usual, in the first half of the year the flash activity will be higher than normal, because this is when flash over invest in the full year.

與往常一樣，上半年的閃現活動將高於正常水平，因為這是全年閃現投資的時候。

They - how do you call this - they front load their investment and therefore you would have a significant portion of the flash vendors of the world.

他們——你怎麼稱呼這個——他們提前加載他們的投資，因此你將擁有世界上很大一部分閃存供應商。

Now, because there are more flash vendors in which we participate, if you mind my drift, that probably reduces the percentage of business that we used to have on our top customer.

現在，因為我們參與的閃存供應商越來越多，如果你介意我的說法，那可能會降低我們過去在頂級客戶身上的業務百分比。

Is it still -- is there any way we can quantify the percentage number, or should I call in later?

是否仍然 - 有什麼方法可以量化百分比數字，還是我應該稍後再打電話？

I think, Simon, if you call in later we can (multiple speakers).

我想，西蒙，如果你稍後再打進來，我們可以（多人發言）。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Nicolas Gaudois.

下一個問題來自 Nicolas Gaudois。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

UBS.

瑞銀。

And apologies for a pretty bad voice today.

並為今天的糟糕聲音道歉。

Just a first question on your degree of uncertainty on orders in Q1, and you don't confirm anything.

只是關於第一季度訂單不確定程度的第一個問題，你沒有確認任何事情。

Should we attribute this pretty much solely to the second tier Taiwan DRAM makers and maybe a couple of others being still very cautious in their ordering pattern, or if anything having stopped ordering activity for capacity?

我們是否應該將這完全歸因於二線台灣 DRAM 製造商和其他一些製造商在他們的訂購模式上仍然非常謹慎，或者是否有任何公司停止了容量訂購活動？

Or is there anything else as well contributing to your degree of uncertainty in the near term?

或者還有什麼其他因素會導致您近期的不確定性程度？

Obviously a good question.

顯然是個好問題。

The first point is I want to repeat, and I will repeat and I'll repeat again, we've said 10 times that we are trying to avoid to guide on bookings because of the complication of the timings of bookings.

第一點是我想重複，我會重複，我會再重複一遍，我們已經說過 10 次，因為預訂時間的複雜性，我們試圖避免指導預訂。

And sometimes we give you a hint about up/down or etc., depending on whether it is obvious that we have enough data to document these things.

有時我們會給你一個關於向上/向下等的提示，這取決於我們是否有足夠的數據來記錄這些事情。

Today, as we've done two or three times, we don't have enough data; we clearly have an uncertainty.

今天，我們已經做了兩三次，但我們沒有足夠的數據；我們顯然有不確定性。

The uncertainty is based on the fact that we've had the first batch of, I would say, flash orders, which are the obvious ones, as I said at the beginning, which forced us to prepare deliveries for Q1 and Q2, which is one of the reasons why we said H1 is going to be robust.

不確定性是基於這樣一個事實，我想說，我們已經有了第一批快速訂單，這是顯而易見的訂單，正如我在開始時所說的那樣，這迫使我們準備第一季度和第二季度的交貨，這是我們說 H1 會很穩健的原因之一。

And therefore, in the Q1 timeframe, that's when we receive the orders of the next batch of customers, which will include the DRAM large ones, the foundries, IDMs and DRAM of, I would say, second tier.

因此，在第一季度的時間範圍內，那是我們收到下一批客戶訂單的時間，其中包括 DRAM 大客戶、代工廠、IDM 和 DRAM，我想說的是第二層。

I would say at this moment we are fairly comfortable about the logic segment, where we think we know, as usual, what is happening, and so there is a run rate of some sort.

我想說的是，目前我們對邏輯部分相當滿意，我們認為我們像往常一樣知道發生了什麼，因此存在某種運行率。

But on the other side of the equation, the other segments -- three segments that I mentioned, you do have a question mark about which technology, how fast and what is the impact of the overall economy on my decision for CapEx.

但在等式的另一邊，其他部分——我提到的三個部分，你確實對哪種技術、速度有多快以及整體經濟對我的資本支出決定有什麼影響有疑問。

You've seen this, obviously, yesterday with the announcement of Samsung, which some time ago in, I think, December timeframe, they mentioned that they may go down in CapEx.

很明顯，昨天三星宣布了這一點，我認為是在 12 月的時間框架內，他們提到他們可能會減少資本支出。

You've heard them yesterday say that they will be stable, a bit higher.

你昨天聽到他們說他們會穩定，更高一點。

This is obviously a decision made, and I think they underlined this.

這顯然是一個決定，我認為他們強調了這一點。

DRAM, which requires a bit more thinking about which DRAM you are making in terms of designs, which DRAM you are making in terms of integration, and therefore which DRAM you make in terms of technology.

DRAM，這需要更多地考慮你在設計方面製造的 DRAM，你在集成方面製造的 DRAM，因此你在技術方面製造的 DRAM。

So, there is a significant amount of technology question and significant amount of how much CapEx they can really afford and when.

因此，存在大量的技術問題，以及他們真正能夠負擔多少資本支出以及何時負擔得起的問題。

Obviously, as I repeat, the reason why we say we are uncertain is because the world is uncertain about exactly how those numbers will pan out.

顯然，正如我重複的那樣，我們之所以說我們不確定，是因為全世界都不確定這些數字究竟會如何發展。

But what we've correlated, as we usually do, is notwithstanding when they take decisions is what are their needs.

但是，正如我們通常所做的那樣，我們所關聯的是，儘管他們做出決定的時間是他們的需求。

And this is where our optimism comes back.

這就是我們的樂觀情緒回歸的地方。

We are confirming the needs.

我們正在確認需求。

That is we know that there is an acceleration of DRAM towards the 5X or 6X technologies that requires a lot of machines.

也就是說，我們知道 DRAM 正在加速向需要大量機器的 5X 或 6X 技術發展。

We know that foundries are reaching the level of utilization that is not sustainable any longer.

我們知道鑄造廠正在達到不再可持續的利用率水平。

And we know the second tier DRAM vendors, who obviously are worried about price and things, still have to go and make some technology transition, of course lagged, but we will call them capacity but for them it is technology transition.

我們知道二線 DRAM 供應商，他們顯然擔心價格和其他事情，仍然需要進行一些技術轉型，當然是滯後的，但我們稱它們為容量，但對他們來說這是技術轉型。

So we know these things are happening.

所以我們知道這些事情正在發生。

And if they are sustained by a simple growth of 10% or so unit of semiconductor, then there is growth in 2008 which will force those booking decisions to be taken.

如果它們僅由 10% 左右的半導體單位增長來維持，那麼 2008 年的增長將迫使做出這些預訂決定。

Great.

偉大的。

And if I look at your indication on the immersion revenues, which could nearly double, I get to about EUR1.8b, EUR1.9b of immersion revenues for '08, potentially.

如果我看一下你對沉浸式收入的指示，它可能會幾乎翻一番，我可能會在 08 年獲得大約 EUR1.8b、EUR1.9b 的沉浸式收入。

What will this do to ASPs overall in '08 trend wise versus 2007?

與 2007 年相比，這對 08 年趨勢的總體 ASP 有何影響？

Yes, we do -- as you know, where we have been good and the reason why we have been, I would not say recession proof, this is a too strong word, but pretty stable at managing different situations is we do manage different scenarios, Nicolas.

是的，我們做到了——正如你所知，我們一直表現出色的原因以及我們表現出色的原因，我不會說經濟衰退證明，這個詞太強了，但在處理不同情況時相當穩定，我們確實處理了不同的情況，尼古拉斯。

So we have a scenario where a lot of people will start double patterning a bit earlier than first quarter of 2009; that will require major immersion.

所以我們有一個場景，很多人會比 2009 年第一季度更早開始雙圖案化；這將需要大量的沉浸。

We have other scenarios where spatial comes in and then we are going to go for much more, what we call, trailing edge.

我們還有其他空間出現的場景，然後我們將追求更多，我們稱之為後緣。

So, the answer to your question is significantly difficult at this moment.

因此，目前很難回答您的問題。

We are comfortable that there is square meters of silicon.

我們很高興有平方米的矽。

We are comfortable that these square meters of silicon will be handled by ASML machines, for good reasons.

我們很高興這些平方米的矽將由 ASML 機器處理，這是有充分理由的。

But it is difficult to know if it will be one 1900 or one ArF and one KrF at this very moment.

但是現在很難知道是一枚 1900 還是一枚 ArF 和一枚 KrF。

I'm talking, by the way, about second half of the year.

順便說一句，我說的是今年下半年。

In the first half of the year it is very clear, because we know the technology that is being required and which is being ramped at this moment.

在今年上半年，情況非常清楚，因為我們知道目前需要的技術和正在加速發展的技術。

What's going to be up, so ASPs are going to be up in that sector.

將會發生什麼，所以 ASP 將在該領域上漲。

On average it's going up but how much is difficult.

平均而言，它在上升，但上升多少很難。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Jonathan Crossfield.

下一個問題來自 Jonathan Crossfield。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

It's Merrill Lynch.

是美林證券。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

My first question would be on leasing arrangements for tools.

我的第一個問題是關於工具的租賃安排。

Given the financial restraints we seem to be seeing from the second tier DRAM players, are you seeing any acceleration in a move towards leasing tools to those sorts of vendors?

鑑於我們似乎從二線 DRAM 播放器中看到的財務限制，您是否看到向此類供應商租賃工具的任何加速？

Yes, I can be very short on that.

是的，我可以很短。

That's the case and that's because leasing companies are trying to engage with us to see how residual values in the end can be effectively matched.

之所以如此，那是因為租賃公司正在嘗試與我們接觸，看看最終如何有效匹配剩餘價值。

So we're aware of many opportunities for leasing companies to get engaged with semiconductor companies and I think we've seen quite a significant increase in the activity, clearly.

因此，我們知道租賃公司有很多機會與半導體公司合作，而且我認為我們已經看到這種活動明顯增加。

Okay, that's great.

好的，那太好了。

And then just as a follow-up, you've talked in the past about the flexibility of your OpEx.

然後作為後續行動，您過去曾談到過您的 OpEx 的靈活性。

And given the sort of uncertainty we're now facing, at least through the first half order levels, what sort of criteria do you look at to determine whether you scale back OpEx, because obviously you're guiding to maintaining fairly high levels of R&D into the early part of '08?

考慮到我們現在面臨的不確定性，至少在上半年的訂單水平上，您會根據什麼樣的標準來確定是否縮減運營支出，因為顯然您正在指導維持相當高的研發水平08 年初？

Well, the early part of '08 is, we say, also covered by what we call a robust level of sales and that's covered -- that's basically covered by the order backlog situation.

好吧，我們說，08 年初的部分也涵蓋了我們所謂的強勁銷售水平，並且涵蓋了 - 這基本上涵蓋了訂單積壓情況。

So, in that sense, that's perfectly in line with what we have said in earlier quarters.

因此，從這個意義上說，這與我們在前幾個季度所說的完全一致。

We have about 30% flexibility in R&D and about 10% to 12% flexibility in SG&A which we can call basically within a quarter.

我們在研發方面有大約 30% 的靈活性，在 SG&A 方面有大約 10% 到 12% 的靈活性，我們基本上可以在一個季度內調用。

And we would be calling that, and we've said also that in the past, when we cannot sustain our sales levels.

我們會這樣稱呼，過去我們也說過，當我們無法維持我們的銷售水平時。

Now, as Eric pointed out earlier, when we look at 2008, and even at modest IC unit growth, looking at the utilization rates of especially our foundry customers, relatively low inventory levels, the need for advanced technology transitions, we do not believe that 2008 is currently going to be a year where we will significantly call upon that flexibility.

現在，正如 Eric 先前指出的那樣，當我們回顧 2008 年時，即使 IC 單位增長溫和，特別是我們代工客戶的利用率、相對較低的庫存水平、對先進技術轉型的需求，我們也不相信2008 年目前將是我們將大力呼籲這種靈活性的一年。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Jay Deahna.

傑·迪亞娜。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

JP Morgan.

摩根大通。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Could you just expand a little bit on your thoughts on the foundries?

您能否稍微擴展一下您對鑄造廠的看法？

You said something about 65 nanometer utilization finally coming up.

你說了一些關於 65 納米利用率的事情終於出現了。

And with seemingly every IDM in the U.S.

似乎美國的每一個 IDM

and Europe going [fab lighter], at some point you would expect that the foundries would have to do something for logic capacity expansion.

和歐洲[fab lighter]，在某些時候你會期望代工廠必須為邏輯產能擴張做些事情。

And then the second question is did your market share in i-Line and KrF go up or down in calendar '07?

然後第二個問題是您在 i-Line 和 KrF 的市場份額在 07 年日曆中是上升還是下降？

And when do you expect your high throughput KrF tool, and please reiterate the model name of that if you could, start to ramp significantly?

你什麼時候期望你的高吞吐量 KrF 工具，如果可以的話，請重申一下它的型號名稱，開始顯著增加？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jay, regarding the foundries, yes, obviously they are becoming more important; SGI, Freescale, AST, NXP are now going to use them more and more often.

Jay，關於鑄造廠，是的，顯然它們變得越來越重要； SGI、Freescale、AST、NXP 現在將越來越頻繁地使用它們。

At this moment, however, as you noticed, we still haven't received significant orders in foundry and they only represent about 10% of our backlog or something and have been fairly slow for, I would probably guess, two years.

然而，正如您所注意到的，此時此刻，我們仍然沒有收到鑄造廠的大量訂單，它們只占我們積壓訂單的 10% 左右，而且我可能猜想，兩年來速度相當慢。

So, obviously, something has got to happen.

所以，很明顯，必須要發生一些事情。

And you know that significant numbers of analysts now and colleagues in the industry are saying they are reaching a level of utilization and need for capacity which -- as I have mentioned as being an upside.

你知道，現在有相當多的分析師和業內同事表示，他們正在達到一定的利用率和產能需求水平——正如我提到的那樣，這是一個好處。

But they are managing their business very well and they will move only at the moment where they clearly see that the top line is moving.

但他們的業務管理得很好，只有在他們清楚地看到頂線正在發生變化的那一刻，他們才會採取行動。

And as long as they can still squeeze efficiency out of their fab, they will be doing and this is what they do.

只要他們仍然可以從他們的晶圓廠中榨取效率，他們就會這樣做，這就是他們所做的。

Now, obviously, we've started to see some requests for short-term orders and that is being processed at the -- at current -- in the quarter, so we start seeing the first signs.

現在，很明顯，我們已經開始看到一些短期訂單的請求，並且正在本季度的當前處理，所以我們開始看到第一個跡象。

Regarding our market share in i-Line and KrF, I think in i-Line the numbers are big enough that I could say yes, we have increased the market share significantly and I guess we will be able to give you the numbers in, whatever, three weeks from now they will be public, I guess, so three or four weeks.

關於我們在 i-Line 和 KrF 的市場份額，我認為在 i-Line 中的數字足夠大，我可以說是的，我們已經顯著增加了市場份額，我想我們可以給你數字，無論，三週後他們將公開，我猜，所以三四個星期。

KrF, I'm not 100% sure because I don't have the data, but I think it has been improved.

KrF，我不是 100% 確定，因為我沒有數據，但我認為它已經改進了。

And the machine called the XT1000, which is a high throughput and high [NA] machine, is, as planned, due for July, I guess it is, and that has not changed.

名為 XT1000 的機器是一種高吞吐量和高 [NA] 機器，按計劃將於 7 月交付，我猜是，而且沒有改變。

Does that answer your question, sir?

先生，這是否回答了您的問題？

I think he dropped off.

我想他下車了。

Okay.

好的。

We go to -- the next question is from Timothy Arcuri.

我們去——下一個問題來自 Timothy Arcuri。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

This is Srini calling for Timothy Arcuri from Citigroup.

我是斯里尼，正在找花旗集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

My question is basically on the overcapacity that you have talked about last year.

我的問題基本上是關於你去年談到的產能過剩問題。

You were saying that the overcapacity would end in the fourth quarter, but if you listen to the Samsung conference call they were saying that the overcapacity in DRAM might last till the first half of this year.

你說產能過剩會在第四季度結束，但你聽三星電話會議說，DRAM產能過剩可能會持續到今年上半年。

So have you done any adjustments to your model?

那麼你對你的模型做了什麼調整嗎？

And when do you think overcapacity in DRAM and NAND will be alleviated?

您認為DRAM和NAND的產能過剩問題何時會得到緩解？

Yes.

是的。

This is a very good question and which leads me to explain a bit more the terms that is being used in the industry.

這是一個很好的問題，它讓我對行業中使用的術語進行更多解釋。

I think we are very compatible with what Samsung says; it's just the terms.

我認為我們非常符合三星所說的；這只是條款。

In business of memory, DRAM or flash, in fact there is no overcapacity per se because every players having a fab of memory would run it 100%, and then would be able to find places to sell.

在內存、DRAM 或閃存行業，其實本身並沒有產能過剩，因為每個擁有內存工廠的玩家都會 100% 地運行它，然後才能找到地方出售。

So, quote/unquote, it is not an overcapacity per se because they don't stay in inventories anywhere.

因此，引用/取消引用，這本身並不是產能過剩，因為它們不會留在任何地方的庫存中。

They are being dumped and the machines are being working on and people are developing those chips.

它們正在被丟棄，機器正在運轉，人們正在開發這些芯片。

So there is never an overcapacity.

因此，永遠不會出現產能過剩。

Now, what we all call overcapacity is whether you have too much capacity or not enough capacity at a given price level.

現在，我們所說的產能過剩是指在給定的價格水平下，產能過剩還是產能不足。

So, whenever somebody talks to you about this model, you would have to ask which price level are you talking about.

因此，每當有人與您談論此型號時，您都必須詢問您所談論的價格水平。

And when we put our simulation tool here in ASML, we put the price level of the beginning of the year.

當我們在 ASML 中放置我們的模擬工具時，我們放置了年初的價格水平。

So we say - imagine that the price level stay as it is; there is overcapacity or under capacity to it, which in other terms means if you have overcapacity that means you are going to have a price reduction.

所以我們說——想像價格水平保持不變；它存在產能過剩或產能不足，換句話說，如果產能過剩，則意味著價格會下降。

If you have an under capacity, you are going to have a price hike.

如果產能不足，價格就會上漲。

So Samsung's message is very similar.

所以三星的信息非常相似。

They basically think that the price will be remaining under pressure for another six months, which is their point and I think we agree with this.

他們基本上認為價格將在接下來的六個月內保持壓力，這是他們的觀點，我認為我們同意這一點。

And we also agree that from what we've seen a significant, in fact, under capacity or a possibility for price to go up in the second half, in particular in view of the technologies being moved.

我們也同意，從我們所看到的情況來看，事實上，下半年產能不足或價格上漲的可能性很大，特別是考慮到正在轉移的技術。

I can't be much more detailed but there is a mix activity at this moment in DRAM which will favor value to volume.

我不能說得更詳細了，但此時 DRAM 中有一個混合活動，這將有利於價值與數量的結合。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I have just one other question.

我還有一個問題。

When you said you have some percentage of uncertainty, could you quantify like the percentage of uncertainty in your bookings in the first half and perhaps the second half?

當你說你有一定百分比的不確定性時，你能否量化上半年和下半年預訂中的不確定性百分比？

Oh, the percentage of uncertainty, it has two facets - one is mix and one is volume.

哦，不確定性的百分比，它有兩個方面——一個是混合，一個是體積。

As I said to, I think, Nicolas at the beginning of the call, we are a bit unsure about which technology some customers are going to go for high volume on and some others, and this is still being discussed.

正如我所說，我認為，尼古拉斯在電話開始時，我們有點不確定一些客戶將採用哪種技術來獲得高容量，而另一些則仍在討論中。

So there is a significant risk of the ASP average and the numbers of units.

因此，平均售價和單位數量存在重大風險。

We may come up with much more, let's say, trailing edge and less immersion or vice versa.

我們可能會想出更多，比方說，後緣和更少的沉浸感，反之亦然。

It doesn't change too much about the whole picture because the margin is not that significantly different.

整體情況並沒有太大變化，因為邊距並沒有那麼大的不同。

So there is a part of the uncertainty is here.

所以這裡有一部分不確定性。

The other part of the uncertainty is the unit but it is really based on the timing issue.

不確定性的另一部分是單位，但它實際上是基於時間問題。

What my worry is all about is if the type of activities, as we see today in Wall Street and everybody discusses about whether there is a recession or not, etc., you can always -- in any business you can always decide to delay a decision by one, two or three months.

我擔心的是，如果活動的類型，正如我們今天在華爾街看到的，每個人都在討論是否有經濟衰退等，你總是可以——在任何企業中，你總是可以決定推遲一、二、三個月後決定。

It's not going to impact anything.

它不會影響任何事情。

So, [a PO] is very much delayed.

因此，[採購訂單] 被嚴重延遲。

Now, in our industry we usually know these things - and I'm going to be very clear - even if we don't have a PO, there is definite working together with customers about preparing things because the lead times are so long.

現在，在我們的行業中，我們通常知道這些事情——我會非常清楚——即使我們沒有採購訂單，也肯定會與客戶一起準備事情，因為交貨時間太長了。

So, yes, we are concerned about situations where a purchasing agent would say "Well, I haven't received the go ahead by the big guys.

所以，是的，我們擔心採購代理會說“好吧，我還沒有收到大公司的批准。

We will receive in a very short lead time, and we know you guys have nine months lead time so we'll have to find a way to deal." So these are the types of activities that can happen and has regularly happened, by the way, in the foundry business.

我們將在很短的交貨時間內收到，我們知道你們有九個月的交貨時間，所以我們必須找到一種方法來處理。”所以這些是可能發生並且經常發生的活動類型，由方式，在代工業務中。

And it's happening any time it is necessary, as it is today, where everybody says "Oh, the American consumers are going to buy more or less, etc." And obviously every foundry, who by the way have lost more and more the visibility of the customers because they are now doing business for TIs, etc., etc., who have also a set of customers.

它會在任何必要的時候發生，就像今天一樣，每個人都說“哦，美國消費者會購買更多或更少，等等。”很明顯，每個代工廠都失去了越來越多的客戶知名度，因為他們現在正在為 TI 等做生意，他們也有一組客戶。

You've got so much uncertainty in the line.

你在這條線上有太多的不確定性。

But as I say, at the end of the day it is only the need that counts.

但正如我所說，歸根結底，只有需求才是最重要的。

And if you plug into your program that you would expect about 10% PCs growth, you are going to discover that you need a lot of lithography tools.

而且，如果您將預計 PC 增長約 10% 的計劃納入您的計劃，您將發現您需要大量的光刻工具。

No matter when the booking comes in, we have to be ready.

無論預訂何時到來，我們都必須做好準備。

And we don't intend to lose market share, if you know what I mean.

如果你明白我的意思，我們不打算失去市場份額。

What Eric basically said is the -- there is a weak correlation between the time that we get an order and the time that we ship the tool.

埃里克基本上說的是——我們收到訂單的時間和我們運送工具的時間之間的相關性很弱。

And that has got to do with the fact that we anticipate the very narrow agreements we have with customers on that technology roadmap when they need certain tools.

這與我們預期在客戶需要某些工具時就該技術路線圖達成的非常狹窄的協議這一事實有關。

And you could say "Well, is ASML then going to take a particular risk by ordering less?" Answer is yes.

你可以說“嗯，那麼 ASML 是否會通過減少訂購來承擔特定的風險？”答案是肯定的。

So, because we know at a certain moment in time the customer actually needs that tool.

所以，因為我們知道在某個時刻客戶確實需要該工具。

Now, is that risk going to translate into extra inventory?

現在，這種風險會轉化為額外庫存嗎？

No, because we have agreements with our supply base.

不，因為我們與我們的供應基地有協議。

So, that particular correlation between the time we get an order times the standard lead time into a shipment that is not there.

因此，我們收到訂單的時間與標準交貨時間之間的特定相關性導致不存在的發貨。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Harlan Sur.

下一個問題來自 Harlan Sur。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利。

Thank you for taking my call.

謝謝你接我的電話。

Is it a fair comparison to think back to Q2 of last year, where you did see a pause in orders after a pretty strong memory spend in the first half of last year?

回想一下去年第二季度是否是一個公平的比較，在去年上半年相當強勁的內存支出之後，您確實看到了訂單暫停？

Is that a good way to think about the pocket of uncertainty you're seeing right now, here in the first half of this year?

這是思考今年上半年你現在看到的不確定性的好方法嗎？

Potentially, yes.

可能，是的。

I think I would also like to add to that -- to your question because it's very relevant.

我想我還想補充一點——你的問題，因為它非常相關。

Think about Q2 of last year, which was a year of just over 30 orders -- sorry, it was a quarter of just over 30 orders, which if you add to the average six months lead time would say, well, then your fourth quarter's going to be 30.

想一想去年的第二季度，那一年只有 30 多份訂單——抱歉，這是 30 多份訂單的四分之一，如果你加上平均六個月的交貨時間，那就是第四季度的訂單快30歲了

Well, the fourth quarter was 55.

嗯，第四節是 55。

Yes?

是的？

So, I think that is to my point of what I just said; it is a weak correlation between when we get an order and when we know customers need the tools.

所以，我認為這就是我剛才所說的意思；我們收到訂單的時間與我們知道客戶需要工具的時間之間的相關性很弱。

Yes.

是的。

Again, then, it is difficult for us and I don't know how much you trust the depth of the analysis we're making here.

再說一次，這對我們來說很困難，我不知道你有多相信我們在這裡所做的分析的深度。

The fundamental point for us is to understand the needs, the economics.

我們的基本點是了解需求和經濟學。

And today our message is bullish.

今天我們的信息是看漲的。

From whatever we hear, with or without this recession discussions and things, we haven't seen any customers or any statistics that tells us that we will not need those machines.

無論我們聽到什麼，無論有沒有這次經濟衰退的討論和事情，我們都沒有看到任何客戶或任何統計數據告訴我們我們將不需要這些機器。

And we can correlate them with numbers.

我們可以將它們與數字相關聯。

It's not like we trust people.

這不像我們信任人。

We just go and count and see them.

我們只是去數數，看看他們。

And we had a discussion at the beginning of the call, where we discussed 200 millimeter fab retirement.

我們在電話會議開始時進行了討論，討論了 200 毫米晶圓廠的退役問題。

Well, these are big deals.

好吧，這些都是大交易。

That means -- you know what that means.

這意味著——你知道那意味著什麼。

That means you've got X fabs going out of business because they are not cost effective, not because you don't need the chips.

這意味著你有 X 家晶圓廠倒閉，因為它們不符合成本效益，而不是因為你不需要芯片。

So, those chips have to be replaced by high technology machines, which come from us.

因此，這些芯片必須由來自我們的高科技機器取代。

So, these types of activities are happening now.

所以，這些類型的活動現在正在發生。

So, if you add up those opportunities and you put this into a normal economic environment of about this 10% unit growth of semiconductor, which is not high, clearly not, then we show this growth potential.

所以，如果你把這些機會加起來，然後把它放在一個正常的經濟環境中，即大約 10% 的半導體單位增長率，這並不高，顯然不高，那麼我們就會顯示出這種增長潛力。

But it is true the bookings -- it's a disaster for us to -- because it is, as Peter says, not correlated.

但預訂確實如此——這對我們來說是一場災難——因為正如彼得所說，它是不相關的。

But if you try to make a trend on the bookings, you will be wrong.

但是，如果您試圖在預訂上形成趨勢，那您就錯了。

There is no -- it doesn't represent the business trend.

沒有——它不代表商業趨勢。

Okay.

好的。

And then a follow-up question.

然後是後續問題。

The team did a great job of bringing down cycle times for products in 2007.

2007 年，該團隊在縮短產品週期方面做得非常出色。

Maybe you can just give us an update on the progress of bringing down the manufacturing cycle times for the immersion products?

也許您可以向我們介紹一下縮短浸入式產品製造週期的最新進展？

What would they be now and where does the team expect them to be six to nine months from now?

他們現在會是什麼，團隊期望他們在六到九個月後會在哪裡？

At this moment, we improved cycle time of immersion machine by about 25% last year.

此時此刻，我們將浸入機的循環時間比去年提高了約 25%。

This year we probably will become -- we'll get towards under a quarter on the three months lead time.

今年我們可能會成為 - 我們將在三個月的交貨時間內接近四分之一。

I should not say this to a customer because they will [expect] orders now within the quarter.

我不應該對客戶這樣說，因為他們現在 [期望] 本季度內會收到訂單。

I made a mistake; sorry.

我犯了一個錯誤;對不起。

The manufacturing time.

製造時間。

Yes, the manufacturing time, I'm sorry.

是的，製造時間，對不起。

They -- of course, lens take always more time, but these lens we have them into fridges.

他們 - 當然，鏡頭總是需要更多時間，但我們將這些鏡頭放入冰箱。

So -- and will we be able to go beyond a three months lead time?

那麼——我們能否超過三個月的準備時間？

Yes, but that will be -- manufacturing time.

是的，但那將是——製造時間。

Yes, that will be some time in 2009.

是的，那將是 2009 年的某個時候。

We have a new process of manufacturing which is being worked on at this moment, which gives opportunities for another, say, four weeks of lead time reduction.

我們目前正在研究一種新的製造工藝，這為另一個（例如）縮短 4 週的交貨時間提供了機會。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你提出我的問題。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

The next question is from Jerome Ramel.

下一個問題來自 Jerome Ramel。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

I just would like to know what can be -- what is the split between the flash and the DRAM in your backlog right now.

我只是想知道可以是什麼 - 現在積壓中的閃存和 DRAM 之間的分割是什麼。

If you have one -- if you have another question and I'll just --

如果你有一個 - 如果你有另一個問題，我會 -

Okay.

好的。

And the follow-up, actually, is I understand why Samsung is increasing CapEx but I have a hard time to understand why the rest of the industry should accelerate the migration to the 50 or whatever, because simply if you look at that cash situation now it's becoming very tough.

實際上，後續行動是我理解三星為什麼要增加資本支出，但我很難理解為什麼其他行業應該加速遷移到 50 或其他什麼，因為只要看看現在的現金狀況它變得非常艱難。

So, I can understand that the top three could continue the race, but for the others aren't you afraid that at one point it simply cannot cope with the price?

所以，我可以理解前三名可以繼續比賽，但是其他的你不怕在某一時刻根本無法應付這個價格嗎？

Well, first of all, the very good news, virtuous circle of this is set when you go and shrink, like this, you go to the next technology, in fact you build less chips at the end.

好吧，首先，好消息是，當你縮小時就會形成良性循環，就像這樣，你會轉向下一個技術，實際上你最後會製造更少的芯片。

Either you put more integration to it or the machines are not as effective as the trailing edge in throughput.

要么你對它進行更多的集成，要么機器在吞吐量方面不如落後的那麼有效。

So, you reduce, in fact, the numbers of units and you create more value.

因此，實際上，您減少了單位數量並創造了更多價值。

So, at the end, just by the fact that there is not so many units you raise the price.

所以，最後，僅僅因為沒有那麼多單位，你就提高了價格。

And the moment you raise the price, it happens that the trailing edge guys, the second tier, may get a bit of life by staying in the lower end of the business for a little longer, and that's probably what we expect, before they also jump to a leading edge.

在你提高價格的那一刻，落後的人，即第二梯隊，可能會在低端業務中停留更長的時間，從而獲得一些生機，這可能是我們所期望的，然後他們也會跳到前沿。

So, if your point was do we believe that the second tier are going to run as fast as the other guys to shrink, I think the answer is no.

所以，如果你的意思是我們是否相信第二層會像其他人一樣快速收縮，我認為答案是否定的。

But they will benefit from the other guys ramping a year to two years ahead of them on the next generation, and that's very nice for us.

但他們將受益於其他人在下一代上比他們領先一年到兩年，這對我們來說非常好。

And then also, with regard to the question that was about leasing, I think our estimate is, in talk to the leasing companies, that the addressable market for leasing companies in the semiconductor space will double this year.

然後，關於租賃的問題，我認為我們的估計是，在與租賃公司的談話中，半導體領域租賃公司的可尋址市場今年將翻一番。

I think they will find other ways of financing.

我認為他們會找到其他融資方式。

I think we've seen clear evidence of that.

我認為我們已經看到了這方面的明確證據。

And there's a lot of activity in that space, especially when it comes to, like you say, very expensive tools like 1900.

在那個領域有很多活動，特別是當涉及到像 1900 這樣非常昂貴的工具時。

So, you see a doubling of the leasing activities this year?

那麼，您看到今年的租賃活動翻了一番嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And one question -- I'm sorry, the answer to your question on the split of memory, it's about half DRAM, half flash.

還有一個問題——很抱歉，關於內存拆分問題的答案是，一半是 DRAM，一半是閃存。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Lehman Brothers.

我是雷曼兄弟公司的安德魯·加德納。

I have a question on the competitive environment.

我有一個關於競爭環境的問題。

You've highlighted in your presentation and the press release some of the gains you've been making recently in Japan.

你在演講和新聞稿中強調了你最近在日本取得的一些成果。

I was just wondering if you could provide a bit more detail, given some of the noise that was coming out of that market late last year.

我只是想知道你是否可以提供更多細節，考慮到去年年底該市場傳出的一些噪音。

And it's quite clear that earlier on the 1900i had a clear advantage over your competition, but that was being drawn into question in certain camps around the end of last year.

很明顯，1900i 較早時比您的競爭對手有明顯優勢，但去年年底左右在某些陣營中，這一點受到質疑。

I was just wondering whether, from your perspective, you think that's true and whether -- or whether feedback from your customers in that market are counter to that, and perhaps any further light you can shed on incremental gains in the Japanese market.

我只是想知道，從您的角度來看，您是否認為這是真的，或者您在該市場的客戶的反饋是否與此相反，也許您可以進一步闡明日本市場的增量收益。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, first of all, we have got two competitors, Canon and Nikon.

所以，首先，我們有兩個競爭對手，佳能和尼康。

Canon has not yet introduced immersion machine and it is being prototyped and the prototype hasn't yet delivered a wafer.

佳能尚未推出浸入機，正在製作原型機，原型機尚未交付晶圓。

So, clearly this is not the one you're talking about.

所以，很明顯這不是你說的那個。

You're probably talking about Nikon, who has a valid machine.

您可能在談論擁有有效機器的尼康。

That machine is based on a single stage platform, so it has between 30% and 40% throughput disadvantage compared to ours.

該機器基於單級平台，因此與我們相比，它的吞吐量劣勢在 30% 到 40% 之間。

This is not new.

這不是新的。

This is the definition of the two products.

這是兩個產品的定義。

And they are still on the lens which has an NA of 1.3.

而且它們仍在 NA 為 1.3 的鏡頭上。

Ours is 1.35.

我們的是 1.35。

And we have an overlay capability which is better than theirs.

我們有比他們更好的覆蓋能力。

So, our machine is still the only machine in the world capable of exposing below 45, say, and Nikon's machine is capable of doing above 45.

所以，我們的機器仍然是世界上唯一能夠在 45 以下曝光的機器，而尼康的機器能夠在 45 以上曝光。

The -- that leads us to still being able to grow our market share.

- 這導致我們仍然能夠增加我們的市場份額。

First, because again we have capability they don't have.

首先，因為我們再次擁有他們沒有的能力。

And secondly, the cost of ownership is not bad, because our throughput is much better.

其次，擁有成本還不錯，因為我們的吞吐量要好得多。

That translate -- and this is now difficult for me to be specific customer-wise, but what can I say?

那個翻譯——現在我很難具體到客戶方面，但我能說什麼呢？

We are growing, obviously, significantly our immersion market share on the customers we've already won.

顯然，我們在我們已經贏得的客戶中的沉浸式市場份額正在顯著增長。

I don't know how we -- but I'm sure you will have the official data soon from the different analysts.

我不知道我們如何 - 但我相信你很快就會從不同的分析師那裡獲得官方數據。

So, you will see that this is clear.

所以，你會看到這很清楚。

And there is now one more customer who has been -- and I think it's now public, who has been interested to evaluate one of our 1900 and this is being -- this is in process.

現在又有一位客戶——我想現在已經公開了，他有興趣評估我們的 1900 中的一個，而這正在——正在進行中。

So, one more customer is being at this very moment worked with, [very high weight].

因此，此刻正在與另一位客戶合作，[非常重要]。

On top of that, just to talk a bit about the 1900, the 1900 introduction has been the smoothest and the fastest introduction of new technology the Company has ever seen.

最重要的是，稍微談談 1900，1900 的引入是公司有史以來最順利、最快的新技術引入。

The 1900s are all built within the targeted manufacturing cycle time.

1900 年代都是在目標製造週期時間內建造的。

They're being installed in the targeted time.

它們正在目標時間安裝。

They are producing wafers very fast after the sign up by the customer above 2,000 wafers, which is basically the result of all the cumulative learning we have had on the 1700.

他們在客戶簽約後生產晶圓的速度非常快，超過 2,000 片晶圓，這基本上是我們在 1700 上積累的所有學習的結果。

So, as you see, the 1900 is a very successful introduction of an ASML product.

因此，如您所見，1900 是一款非常成功的 ASML 產品。

And also, if we look at the first six, I would even say nine months of the year, we cannot make enough 1900s.

而且，如果我們看前六個，我什至會說一年中有九個月，我們無法製造足夠的 1900。

We are shipping lower than the customer demand and that's simply because of the ramp up of the lenses.

我們的出貨量低於客戶需求，這僅僅是因為鏡頭的增加。

So, I think, all in all, the 1900 has been a very successful introduction and it still is.

所以，我認為，總而言之，1900 是一個非常成功的產品，現在仍然如此。

And I think it will reflect in our customer market share.

我認為這將反映在我們的客戶市場份額上。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Jim Fontanelli.

下一個問題來自 Jim Fontanelli。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

It's Jim Fontanelli at Arete Research.

我是 Arete Research 的 Jim Fontanelli。

Just circling back to the question of less correlation between orders and revenue, your guidance for near doubling immersion sales in '08 obviously implies that you'll be taking orders -- immersion orders over the next three to four months of maybe circa EUR700m to EUR800m, given an eight/nine month lead time in immersion currently.

回到訂單與收入之間相關性較低的問題上，您對 08 年浸入式銷售額增長近一倍的指導顯然意味著您將接受訂單——未來三到四個月的浸入式訂單可能約為 7 億至 8 億歐元，目前有八/九個月的沉浸時間。

Given all the provisos and the lack of visibility that you've been talking about so far on this call, what's the degree of confidence you have that that EUR700m to EUR800m is real and it's not going to fade away in part over the next quarter or so?

考慮到您到目前為止在本次電話會議上一直在談論的所有附帶條件和缺乏可見性，您對 7 億至 8 億歐元是真實的並且不會在下個季度或部分消失的信心程度如何？所以？

Yes, well, the biggest driver is - and I think Eric talked about that - is that our memory customers, largely memory customers of flash and DRAM but also, I think, to a lesser extent foundry and our IDM customers, they have a roadmap that in time differs quite significantly when they need the first new leading edge tool.

是的，嗯，最大的驅動因素是——我想埃里克談到了這一點——是我們的內存客戶，主要是閃存和 DRAM 的內存客戶，但我認為，在較小程度上，代工廠和我們的 IDM 客戶，他們有一個路線圖當他們需要第一個新的前沿工具時，時間上會有很大的不同。

So, we have seen the most aggressive customers in that sense coming into the backlog over the last two quarters, but we haven't seen everything yet.

因此，在過去兩個季度中，我們已經看到在這個意義上最積極的客戶進入積壓狀態，但我們還沒有看到一切。

And that means that either those customers decide that they're going to give up on their technology roadmap and their shrink, or they're going to execute.

這意味著要么這些客戶決定他們將放棄他們的技術路線圖和縮水，要么他們將執行。

And they will execute on roadmaps, like I said, that in time will differ.

他們將按照路線圖執行，就像我說的那樣，隨著時間的推移會有所不同。

So, going back to the discussions that we have with those customers, we just don't walk in and we get an order.

因此，回到我們與這些客戶的討論，我們只是不走進去就得到了訂單。

Those are discussions that takes quarters, months.

這些討論需要幾個季度、幾個月的時間。

Yes?

是的？

Just to make clear, when they need a specific tool to serve their roadmaps.

只是為了說明，當他們需要一個特定的工具來服務於他們的路線圖時。

So, that gives us the confidence, those kind of discussions.

所以，這給了我們信心，進行了那種討論。

The inclusion of a 1900 in their roadmap at that particular point in time gives us the confidence to make that statement that we think we will close to double the immersion sales in 2008.

在那個特定的時間點將 1900 包含在他們的路線圖中讓我們有信心做出這樣的聲明，我們認為我們將在 2008 年接近兩倍的沉浸式銷售。

Yes, so in other terms, if I put a slight amount of details more, in the second half of the year there is going to be, as usual, it has always happened, the tail end of the first tier, because they buy a lot in the first half and they always forget one, two, three, four, five or so.

是的，所以換句話說，如果我多加一點細節，在今年下半年，就像往常一樣，它總是會發生，第一層的尾端，因為他們買了上半場很多，他們總是忘記一、二、三、四、五左右。

Then you're going to have the second tier.

然後你將擁有第二層。

But I should -- the second tier and then a third tier.

但我應該——第二層，然後是第三層。

And so, there is a complete new ramp of, call it, second tier customers, but they will be annoyed if I made that so clear.

因此，有一個全新的二線客戶群，稱之為二線客戶，但如果我說得如此清楚，他們會很生氣。

So, it's not the first, the top three.

所以，不是第一，是前三。

The most aggressive.

最具侵略性。

It's the next ones.

這是接下來的。

That will come up in Q3.

這將在第三季度出現。

And then, in addition to that, you're going to have the immersion starting from -- for the Logic guys, because again Logic hasn't started, by the way, in production.

然後，除此之外，對於 Logic 人員，你將開始沉浸式體驗，因為順便說一句，Logic 還沒有開始生產。

So -- and that, we have some orders.

所以 - 而且，我們有一些訂單。

So, yes, there is new activities coming up in this environment and I didn't want to confuse anybody.

所以，是的，在這個環境中出現了新的活動，我不想讓任何人感到困惑。

The immersion for the third tier DRAM is not even a 2008 story.

第三層 DRAM 的沉浸甚至不是 2008 年的故事。

So, I'm sorry to confuse people with second tier, third tier, etc., but I don't want to put names to it.

所以，很抱歉將人們與第二層、第三層等混淆，但我不想給它命名。

There is clearly a necessity for what I call the second tier DRAM makers to be there, because if not they would absolutely leave it to the top two or three.

我稱之為二線 DRAM 製造商的存在顯然是必要的，因為否則他們絕對會把它留給前兩三名。

And it's also in that space where we see a lot of the leasing proposals.

在那個領域，我們也看到了很多租賃提案。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, that's pretty clear.

好的，這很清楚。

And just to follow up on the DRAM front, I guess it's all the sub-60 nanometer capacity that's coming on this year that's going to drive your specific DRAM immersion demand.

只是為了跟進 DRAM 前沿，我想這是今年即將推出的所有低於 60 納米的容量，這將推動您特定的 DRAM 浸入式需求。

Do you have an idea of what proportion of global DRAM capacity you think is going to be sub-60 this year?

您是否知道您認為今年全球 DRAM 容量的比例將低於 60？

In fact, I think we can send you that, but unfortunately I don't have it in front of me.

事實上，我想我們可以把它發給你，但不幸的是我沒有它在我面前。

That's again something we can forward to you, Franki, Craig, so.

這又是我們可以轉發給你們的東西，弗蘭基、克雷格等等。

Yes, it is.

是的。

We have the data on the node percentage.

我們有關於節點百分比的數據。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll come back to you.

我們會回來找你的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll send it on, but we don't have it here.

我們會發送它，但我們這裡沒有。

Yes.

是的。

But you can call Frankie and Craig.

但你可以打電話給弗蘭基和克雷格。

Will do.

會做。

The next question is from Mark FitzGerald.

下一個問題來自 Mark FitzGerald。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

If you look at the DRAM market as being probably the highest risk at this point, can you give us an idea of what you're thinking about the DRAM business is going to adopt immersion in 2008 in terms of units?

如果您認為 DRAM 市場目前可能是風險最高的市場，您能否告訴我們您對 2008 年 DRAM 業務將採用 immersion 的想法（以單位計）？

And then how many of those units go into the top three customers?

然後這些單位中有多少進入了前三名客戶？

First of all, I think, yes, like you we thought that it was a risk, because it's so -- it's a very large business and they have such a price problem that at some point everybody was worried that they would disappear or stop, or try to reassess.

首先，我認為，是的，就像你一樣，我們認為這是一種風險，因為它是如此 - 這是一個非常大的企業，他們有這樣一個價格問題，以至於在某個時候每個人都擔心他們會消失或停止，或嘗試重新評估。

But today, clearly, they have come up with this solution, which is ramping much faster their 5X or 5X equivalent.

但今天，很明顯，他們已經提出了這個解決方案，它的增長速度要快得多，相當於 5 倍或 5 倍。

So, this is where I would say the enthusiasm is.

所以，這就是我要說的熱情所在。

They are building up this plan where immersion is getting them out of a price problem.

他們正在製定這個計劃，讓他們沉浸其中，擺脫價格問題。

And they have discovered also by doing this they -- only the big guys can be first.

他們還發現，通過這樣做，他們——只有大人物才能成為第一。

So, there is significant hope for them.

因此，他們有很大的希望。

So, you see this as a risk.

所以，你認為這是一種風險。

In fact, we saw this as a fairly big, I would say, dynamic that saved everything.

事實上，我們認為這是一個相當大的，我想說，拯救一切的動力。

Now, in terms of units that that would create for next year, would we be wrong by saying about half?

現在，就明年將創造的單位而言，我們說大約一半是錯誤的嗎？

So, if we said the business of immersion is about in the EUR1.9b-ish, as Nicolas said, and EUR1.9b to EUR2b, EUR1b of it may be DRAM.

因此，如果我們說沉浸式業務大約在 EUR1.9b-ish，如 Nicolas 所說，並且 EUR1.9b 至 EUR2b，其中 EUR1b 可能是 DRAM。

Would that be the equivalent of 25 systems or so?

那相當於 25 個系統左右嗎？

Divided by 30-ish, but there may be some 1700.

除以 30 左右，但可能有 1700 左右。

No, it's 30.

不，是30。

30 systems.

30個系統。

And the top three customers dominant in that mix?

而在該組合中占主導地位的前三名客戶呢？

That I don't think I can give names, can I, or -- no.

我認為我不能說出名字，我可以，或者——不能。

I'm not looking for names.

我不是在尋找名字。

Of the top three customers.

前三名的客戶。

Oh, the top three customers.

哦，前三名客戶。

Don't want to give their names.

不想說出他們的名字。

They're heavily present in that mix, yes.

是的，它們大量存在於這種組合中。

Yes, of course, yes.

是的，當然，是的。

So, does than mean something like 70%, 80% of the mix?

那麼，than 是否意味著混合的 70%、80%？

DRAM customers, you mean, on the 30 units?

DRAM 客戶，你是說，30 個單位？

Yes.

是的。

Of the top -- of the 30 units, how much of that would be the top three?

在前 30 個單位中，前三名有多少？

Yes, I understand what he said.

是的，我明白他說的。

Yes.

是的。

About three-quarters.

大約四分之三。

It's big.

它很大。

We are hesitating because we are ramping somebody new, but to be honest it's difficult.

我們正在猶豫，因為我們正在培養新人，但老實說這很難。

But let's not try to answer your question, because we don't understand.

但是我們不要試圖回答你的問題，因為我們不明白。

So, you may want to have a little technical discussion with Craig or Franki about exactly what you're asking.

因此，您可能希望與 Craig 或 Franki 就您的問題進行一些技術討論。

We may give you a wrong impression.

我們可能會給您留下錯誤的印象。

But clearly, our top three customers are significant at this moment in time in the order backlog, our top three memory customers.

但很明顯，我們的前三大客戶目前在訂單積壓中非常重要，我們前三大內存客戶。

So, it must also be for the immersion tools.

因此，它也必須是用於浸入式工具。

I don't have the exact data here, but they are significant.

我這裡沒有確切的數據，但它們很重要。

If you want an exact percentage, I can give you that, but they are very significant.

如果你想要一個確切的百分比，我可以給你，但它們非常重要。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Weston Twigg.

下一個問題來自 Weston Twigg。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

Wes Twigg, Pacific Crest.

韋斯·特維格，太平洋佳洁士。

Just wondering if maybe you could help explain the jump in service revenue and maybe tell us whether or not that number should carry forward.

只是想知道您是否可以幫助解釋服務收入的增長，並告訴我們這個數字是否應該結轉。

Yes, the jump was largely in the field options.

是的，跳躍主要是在現場選項中。

Like I said, that's a lumpy business.

就像我說的，那是一件麻煩事。

Sometimes we have big upgrades of fabs, where we do productivity enhancement packages for the whole fab and then you suddenly have a big jump.

有時我們對晶圓廠進行大升級，我們為整個晶圓廠做生產力增強包，然後你突然有了一個大躍進。

So, on average, the service revenue is about EUR100m, but it can vary between EUR85m and EUR110m, EUR120m.

因此，平均而言，服務收入約為 1 億歐元，但可能在 8500 萬歐元和 1.1 億歐元之間變化，即 1.2 億歐元。

So, it's really when we have these bigger projects which are focused on system enhancements and system upgrades, and have happened in the fourth quarter.

所以，當我們有這些專注於系統增強和系統升級的更大項目時，確實是在第四季度發生的。

It's difficult to predict.

很難預測。

Those are really orders that come in and that we need to deliver within the quarter.

這些確實是收到的訂單，我們需要在本季度內交付。

Okay.

好的。

You don't necessarily expect that number to --?

你不一定期望這個數字——？

No, [it doesn't] be at that level of EUR120m.

不，[它沒有]達到 1.2 億歐元的水平。

No, this on average is about EUR100m.

不，這平均約為 1 億歐元。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Dan Ping.

下一個問題來自丹萍。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Dan disappeared.

丹消失了。

The next question is from Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

I'm from JP Morgan.

我來自摩根大通。

Just a quick question on -- there has been quite a lot of discussion on this, but in terms of your [SIC], you've talked about tier one, tier two, tier three DRAM customers, but there are tier two NAND customers as well.

只是一個簡短的問題——對此已經有很多討論，但就您的 [SIC] 而言，您已經談到了一級、二級、三級 DRAM 客戶，但還有二級 NAND 客戶以及。

Have all the tier two NAND customers placed orders already, or are we all completely relying on DRAM to be the next wave in the immersion orders?

NAND的二級客戶都已經下單了嗎，還是我們都完全依賴DRAM成為下一波沉浸式訂單？

No, the smaller NAND haven't.

不，較小的 NAND 沒有。

So you do expect that some of the smaller NAND customers will be placing 1900i orders at some point this year?

那麼您是否預計一些較小的 NAND 客戶會在今年某個時候下達 1900i 訂單？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Correct.

正確的。

And then, finally, regarding your options program, we've talked about this in the past.

最後，關於您的期權計劃，我們過去曾討論過這個問題。

We talked a lot about the possibilities.

我們談了很多可能性。

Do these options still exist and could they be exercised at short notice, the second quarter, for instance?

這些選擇權是否仍然存在，是否可以在短時間內（例如第二季度）行使？

Can I give you the truth, Sandeep?

我可以告訴你真相嗎，桑迪普？

Yes.

是的。

In fact, we're doing this with a - how do you say - a commercial system.

事實上，我們正在用一個——你怎麼說——一個商業系統來做這件事。

But in addition, we have to do it also with, I would say, aggressive lead time programs, which sometimes are not options.

但除此之外，我們還必須通過積極的提前期計劃來做到這一點，這有時不是選項。

So, we have two sets of programs in place, i.e.

因此，我們有兩套程序，即

a commercial program that says you accept to 100% guarantee that we will be ready to ship within two months.

一個商業程序，表示您接受 100% 保證我們將在兩個月內準備好發貨。

And then there is another program which is you accept to be getting those units but your probability is not 100%.

然後還有另一個程序，您接受獲得這些單位，但您的概率不是 100%。

And those numbers are limited, the number of --

這些數字是有限的，數量——

One is cheaper than the other and to be honest the one which is popular at this moment, extremely popular, is the cheap one.

一個比另一個便宜，說實話，現在流行的，非常流行的，就是便宜的。

But -- so it puts us into a difficult logistics situations, but we shall see.

但是——這讓我們陷入了物流困境，但我們拭目以待。

But as an answer to your question, very clearly, yes.

但作為對你問題的回答，非常明確，是的。

That is still out there, so those options have been called.

那仍然在那裡，所以那些選項已經被調用。

And, like Eric says, we have the second program for a limited number, where customers try to get ultra short lead time but we can do it only for a very, very few number of tools.

而且，正如埃里克所說，我們有第二個計劃，數量有限，客戶試圖獲得超短的交貨時間，但我們只能為非常非常少的工具做到這一點。

And both are there and as a matter of fact we have seen, like Eric said earlier, especially in the foundry area, in the leading 65 nanometer capable tools, we have seen those spur demands coming over the last week or so.

兩者都在那裡，事實上我們已經看到，就像 Eric 早些時候所說的那樣，特別是在代工領域，在領先的 65 納米功能工具中，我們已經看到這些刺激需求在過去一周左右出現了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have time for one last call.

女士們先生們，我想我們還有時間進行最後一次通話。

If you're unable to get through, the IR department will be here for a while, so feel free to give us a call in Veldhoven.

如果您打不通，IR 部門會在這裡待一會兒，所以請隨時給我們在 Veldhoven 的電話。

You can find that number on our website.

您可以在我們的網站上找到該號碼。

Now, operator, if we can have the last question.

現在，接線員，我們是否可以提出最後一個問題。

Your last question is from Janardan Menon.

你的最後一個問題來自 Janardan Menon。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

It's Janardan from Dresdner Kleinwort.

這是來自 Dresdner Kleinwort 的 Janardan。

I just want to go back to the immersion question asked earlier.

我只想回到之前提出的沉浸式問題。

When you say you're getting about EUR1.9b or so of revenue in the year, you're talking about 62s or thereabouts a little bit higher maybe, at about EUR30m a piece.

當你說你在一年中獲得大約 1.9b 歐元左右的收入時，你說的是 62s 左右，也許更高一點，大約 3000 萬歐元。

You have 34 in your backlog.

您的積壓工作中有 34 個。

So, does not that guidance imply that you have some visibility on taking in orders of about 10, 11 a quarter over the next two quarters, or is that visibility not really there?

那麼，該指導是否意味著您在接下來的兩個季度中每季度接受約 10、11 個訂單有一定的可見性，或者這種可見性真的不存在嗎？

It will be natural to do so and we are working on those.

這樣做是很自然的，我們正在努力解決這些問題。

That's why we are declaring that we can do these tools.

這就是為什麼我們宣布我們可以使用這些工具。

But, as I said -- in fact, I'm going to give you a story.

但是，正如我所說的——事實上，我要給你講一個故事。

We booked, I think, three 1900s on the last week of December for delivery in April.

我認為，我們在 12 月的最後一周預訂了三個 1900，以便在 4 月交貨。

So, that gives you a feeling about things.

所以，這讓你對事物有一種感覺。

So, I -- what you say is, in fact, the logical answer with a bit of a stretched lead time, but that's -- I think that will be okay.

所以，我——你所說的實際上是一個合乎邏輯的答案，但提前時間有點長，但那是——我認為這沒問題。

But it is not obvious.

但這並不明顯。

The three deals on the 1900 were, in fact, a significant activity for us to discuss, I would say, terms for good reason, so there was no giveaway or whatever, but it took a bit of time.

事實上，關於 1900 的三筆交易對我們來說是一項重要的活動，我會說，這是有充分理由的條款，所以沒有贈品或其他任何東西，但花了一些時間。

But obviously the machines were already started.

但顯然機器已經啟動了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And just a last follow-up, if I can, sir.

還有最後一次跟進，如果可以的話，先生。

On your Q1 orders, can I assume that if things were good or things are bad, let us say, as different order levels will go, that in your mind the biggest delta between what is good or bad is whether the foundries will order or not?

關於您的第一季度訂單，我是否可以假設，如果事情是好是壞，讓我們說，隨著不同的訂單水平會發生，在您看來，好與壞之間的最大差異是代工廠是否會訂購？

Or is it -- can that delta come from somebody else as well?

或者是——這個增量也可以來自其他人嗎？

To be honest, at this moment, we do not need the foundries to have a robust year.

老實說，此時此刻，我們不需要鑄造廠有一個強勁的一年。

We may need the foundry to have a growth year with -- but we haven't put into our scenario, in order to give you an optimistic view of the year, a surprise booking by the foundries.

我們可能需要鑄造廠有一個增長的一年 - 但我們沒有考慮到我們的情景，以便讓您對今年有一個樂觀的看法，鑄造廠出人意料地預訂。

In Q1.

在第一季度。

In Q1 or in Q2 even, but not -- just a very small amount, as they have been doing.

甚至在第一季度或第二季度，但不是——只是非常小的數量，就像他們一直在做的那樣。

So, we're not dreaming.

所以，我們不是在做夢。

In fact, I think it is a good conclusion.

事實上，我認為這是一個很好的結論。

The message we try to give to everybody is we're not dreaming.

我們試圖向所有人傳達的信息是，我們不是在做夢。

We know that there is a potential recession or etc.

我們知道有潛在的經濟衰退等。

out there.

在那裡。

We are working our CapEx and OpEx accordingly, obviously.

顯然，我們正在相應地處理我們的資本支出和運營支出。

But we also understand that there are economics that requires our customers to ramp their production a certain way, in particular in order for them to cost save and etc.

但我們也明白，有些經濟因素要求我們的客戶以某種方式提高產量，特別是為了讓他們節省成本等。

or introduce new products.

或推出新產品。

So, we have to do them.

所以，我們必須這樣做。

We know about the level of units that they want and we are optimistic about it.

我們知道他們想要的單位水平，我們對此持樂觀態度。

But we're not saying, oh, great, we are going to have all of them come in and the Taiwanese are going to have a lot of money, and etc.

但我們並不是說，哦，太好了，我們會讓他們所有人都進來，台灣人會擁有很多錢，等等。

And, therefore, thanks to all this, we are going to have a year 2008.

因此，由於這一切，我們將迎來 2008 年。

In fact, we do not at all simulate any of that.

事實上，我們根本沒有模擬任何這些。

We simulate on a very normal behavior by the very large players, who are doing two things - technology transitions and retirement of some 200 millimeter fabs.

我們模擬了非常大的玩家的一種非常正常的行為，他們正在做兩件事——技術轉型和一些 200 毫米晶圓廠的退役。

And on this notion, we finish the call with a fairly optimistic message of 2008.

基於這一理念，我們以 2008 年相當樂觀的信息結束了電話會議。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Well, I'd like, on behalf of ASML, to thank everybody for calling or listening in and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

好吧，我想代表 ASML，感謝大家的來電或傾聽，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

And, operator, you can go ahead and close out the call for us.

而且，接線員，您可以繼續為我們結束通話。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2007 fourth quarter and annual results conference call.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2007 年第四季度和年度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect your line.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開您的線路。

Thank you.

謝謝。