艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2008 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the ASML 2008 first-quarter results conference call on April 16, 2008.

歡迎參加 2008 年 4 月 16 日召開的 ASML 2008 第一季度業績電話會議。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

我現在想把電話轉給先生。

Craig DeYoung.

克雷格·德揚。

Thank you, Nicole.

謝謝你，妮可。

Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好，早上好。

This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML.

我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。

I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and Webcast.

歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網絡廣播。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2008 first-quarter results.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2008 年第一季度業績。

Hosting this call today are ASML's CEO, Eric Meurice, and CFO, Peter Wennink.

今天主持這個電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和首席財務官 Peter Wennink。

I'd like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation.

我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明。

The Safe Harbor statement will cover today's call introduction and question-and-answer session as well.

安全港聲明也將涵蓋今天的電話介紹和問答環節。

You can find our press release and presentation on our Web site at ASML.com.

您可以在我們的網站 ASML.com 上找到我們的新聞稿和演示文稿。

The length of this call will be 60 minutes.

通話時長為 60 分鐘。

At this point I'd like to turn the call over to Eric Meurice for a brief introduction.

在這一點上，我想把電話轉給 Eric Meurice 做一個簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Good afternoon and good morning.

下午好，早上好。

Thank you for attending our call.

感謝您參加我們的電話會議。

As usual, Peter and I would like to say a few things about the quarter before we open up the call to questions.

像往常一樣，彼得和我想在我們開始提問之前先談談本季度的一些事情。

Peter will start with a review of our Q1 financial performance, with added comments on our short-term outlook.

Peter 將首先回顧我們第一季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表更多評論。

We'll complete the introduction with our assessments of the current environment and some details on our longer-term view.

我們將通過對當前環境的評估和我們長期觀點的一些細節來完成介紹。

Following the introduction, we will open up to questions.

介紹完之後，我們將開始提問。

Peter, if you will.

彼得，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你，埃里克。

Welcome to everyone.

歡迎大家。

First of all I'd like to review, like Eric said, the Q1 result highlights.

首先，我想回顧一下，就像埃里克所說的那樣，第一季度的結果亮點。

The first quarter developed as we expected, leading to the eighth quarter in a row in which ASML has posted revenues of over EUR900 million.

第一季度的發展符合我們的預期，ASML 連續第八個季度實現收入超過 9 億歐元。

Revenues were EUR919 million, to be exact, from total shipments of 50 systems, 14 of which were immersion systems.

確切地說，50 個系統的總出貨量為 9.19 億歐元，其中 14 個是浸入式系統。

This technology mix has led to a record average selling price for all systems shipped of EUR16.4 million.

這種技術組合使所有系統的平均售價達到創紀錄的 1640 萬歐元。

40.6% of gross margin, along with operating expenses of EUR186 million, resulted in operating margin in the quarter of 20.5%, which compares to 21.3% for Q4 of '07.

40.6% 的毛利率以及 1.86 億歐元的運營費用導致本季度的運營利潤率為 20.5%，而 07 年第四季度為 21.3%。

We generated a strong amount of cash from operating activities of EUR263 million in the first quarter, which resulted in a cash reserve at the end of the quarter of 1.4 billion.

第一季度，我們從經營活動中產生了 2.63 億歐元的大量現金，導致本季度末的現金儲備為 14 億歐元。

We also concluded our latest share buyback program in the first quarter of 2008 of 14 million shares to cover for outstanding employee stock options.

我們還在 2008 年第一季度完成了最新的股票回購計劃，回購了 1400 萬股股票，以支付已發行的員工股票期權。

We booked 26 system orders in Q1, 17 of which were new.

我們在第一季度預訂了 26 個系統訂單，其中 17 個是新訂單。

The reasons for this relatively low order intake are threefold.

訂單量相對較低的原因有三個。

First, the healthy order book at the beginning of the quarter.

首先，本季度初的健康訂單。

Customers simply did not need to order systems for first-half delivery.

客戶根本不需要為上半年交付訂購系統。

Secondly, the bookings delay for two flash memory fabs resulting from recently announced investment pushbacks.

其次，最近宣布的投資推遲導致兩家閃存工廠的預訂延遲。

And thirdly, the bookings delay from a certain DRAM customer, who is currently discussing new strategic alliances.

第三，某位 DRAM 客戶的預訂延遲，該客戶目前正在討論新的戰略聯盟。

We are told that these delayed projects will happen since they're, clearly, of a strategic nature to the customers.

我們被告知這些延遲的項目將會發生，因為它們顯然對客戶具有戰略性質。

The delays, however, could be one or two quarters.

然而，延遲可能是一個或兩個季度。

Orders booked in the first quarter came in large part from our stable logic customer base as they added incremental capacity to meet growing demand at their most advanced process nodes.

第一季度的訂單大部分來自我們穩定的邏輯客戶群，因為他們增加了增量產能以滿足最先進工藝節點不斷增長的需求。

Looking forward, we anticipate a gradual increase in unit order intake, partially driven by clearly identifiable market share gains and the flash 45 nanometer technology ramp.

展望未來，我們預計單位訂單量將逐漸增加，部分原因是明顯可識別的市場份額增長和閃存 45 納米技術的增長。

In euro terms, the increase in the second quarter will be significant, driven by high leading-edge technology content.

以歐元計算，在尖端技術含量高的推動下，第二季度的增長將十分顯著。

Our confidence in this is, by the way, based on the state of our current order negotiations.

順便說一下，我們對此的信心是基於我們當前訂單談判的狀態。

Given the impact of the delays on the order intake in Q1, together with only a modest pickup in Q2 unit orders, we expect weaker net sales in the next two quarters as compared to the eight previous quarters.

鑑於延遲對第一季度訂單量的影響，以及第二季度單位訂單的溫和回升，我們預計未來兩個季度的淨銷售額將低於前八個季度。

The result of this is that we currently estimate 2008 sales to be about 10% less than our record revenue in 2007.

其結果是，我們目前估計 2008 年的銷售額將比 2007 年創紀錄的收入低約 10%。

The order intake level will certainly depend on healthier pricing environment for the memory chips.

訂單量肯定取決於存儲芯片的更健康的定價環境。

Based on the current low level of lithography capacity additions, this is expected to happen in the course of this year.

基於目前低水平的光刻產能增加，預計這將在今年內發生。

The first signs of memory price increases have been reported over the last few weeks, by the way.

順便說一句，在過去幾週內，已經報導了內存價格上漲的最初跡象。

We plan to ship 42 units in the second quarter with an average selling price of EUR17 million, which is a 5% increase over the first quarter.

我們計劃在第二季度出貨 42 台，平均售價為 1700 萬歐元，比第一季度增長 5%。

Our gross margin for the coming quarter will be approximately 40%, R&D is planned at EUR130 million, and SG&A planned at 58.

我們下一季度的毛利率約為 40%，研發計劃為 1.3 億歐元，SG&A 計劃為 58。

But, given the current market weakness, we are trimming manufacturing and SG&A costs for the second half, while keeping R&D stable at our current levels.

但是，鑑於當前的市場疲軟，我們將削減下半年的製造和 SG&A 成本，同時將研發保持在當前水平。

In summary, we do remain cautious with the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and uncertainty in memory demand.

總而言之，在全球經濟不確定性和內存需求不確定的背景下，我們確實保持謹慎。

However, we expect that ultimately, lithography demand will particularly be driven by the ramps of the new 45 nanometer flash memory node, which are required in the second half of 2008, the firming up of DRAM prices, and the completion of new strategic alignments between DRAM makers.

然而，我們預計最終，光刻需求將特別受到 2008 年下半年所需的新 45 納米閃存節點的提升、DRAM 價格的堅挺以及新的戰略調整的完成所推動。 DRAM 製造商。

That's it for my part of the introduction.

這就是我的介紹部分。

Eric, I'll turn back to you.

埃里克，我會回頭給你。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Peter has highlighted the fact that we again posted sales of above 900 million in the eighth quarter in a row.

彼得強調了一個事實，即我們在連續第八個季度再次公佈了超過 9 億的銷售額。

This is witness to the effect of both system average selling prices and market share growth.

這證明了系統平均售價和市場份額增長的影響。

We posted a 15.8% net income in Q1 '08 on the shipment of only 50 systems, compared to a slightly higher 16.1% net income on the shipment of 77 systems in the same quarter one year earlier.

我們在 08 年第一季度僅出貨了 50 個系統，淨收入為 15.8%，而去年同期出貨量為 77 個系統，淨收入略高於 16.1%。

This performance is clearly ASP growth related, and underlines ASML's relative stability in this cyclical industry.

這一表現顯然與 ASP 增長相關，並強調了 ASML 在這個週期性行業中的相對穩定性。

The continued global economic uncertainty has an impact, obviously, on the semiconductor sector, as logic and foundry customers are booking very conservatively, tool by tool, on immediate need for capacity and as memory customers await firming up of their prices, which (technical difficulty) supply chain supply demand driven, before making serious investments.

持續的全球經濟不確定性顯然對半導體行業產生了影響，因為邏輯和晶圓代工客戶根據對產能的迫切需求逐個工具地非常保守地預訂，並且內存客戶等待價格上漲，這（技術困難) 供應鏈供應需求驅動，然後再進行認真的投資。

This near-term effect on the growth of our business, however, does not impact our long-term trajectory.

然而，這種對我們業務增長的短期影響不會影響我們的長期發展軌跡。

Flash memory customers, as Peter said, are still developing a new technology node every year, and we continue to see the ramp of 45 nanometer technology in the second half of '08, while anticipating the start of the 38 nanometer node double patterning technology early in 2009.

正如 Peter 所說，閃存客戶每年仍在開發新的技術節點，我們在 08 年下半年繼續看到 45 納米技術的發展，同時預計 38 納米節點雙圖形技術會提前啟動在2009年。

DRAM customers themselves are currently aligning their capacity to market needs, which is good, developing the necessary industry partnerships, and, in addition, gearing up for a 55 nanometer node technology ramp by the second half of '08 and the beginning of '09.

DRAM 客戶本身目前正在根據市場需求調整他們的產能，這很好，發展了必要的行業合作夥伴關係，此外，還準備在 08 年下半年和 09 年初推出 55 納米節點技術。

Logic and foundry customers have not significantly increased capacity for at least two to three years, and the announced transition of major players like Texas Instrument and (inaudible) Freescale to a fab-like model have not yet generated -- generating -- generated the additional demand from the boundaries as the capacity is basically rationalized at this time.

邏輯和代工客戶至少兩到三年沒有顯著增加產能，德州儀器和（聽不清）飛思卡爾等主要參與者宣布向類似晶圓廠的模型的過渡尚未產生 - 產生 - 產生了額外的邊界作為產能的需求此時基本合理化。

Significant capacity ramp is, therefore, due to happen at some time in the future.

因此，未來某個時間將出現顯著的產能提升。

We will certainly adjust our overhead in coming quarters to adjust to this slight top-line correction, but we will remain steadfast with our investments in research and development during the year.

我們肯定會在未來幾個季度調整我們的間接費用以適應這種輕微的收入調整，但我們將在這一年中堅定不移地投資於研發。

As you know, our R&D effort has yielded significant leadership in the current new immersion technology, with a further 14 immersion systems shipped in Q1 -- which, I think, is a record for us and for the world -- bringing our total immersion installed base to 86 tools, 53 of which are in Asia, 16 of which are in Japan.

如您所知，我們的研發工作在當前的新型沉浸式技術方面取得了顯著的領先地位，第一季度又交付了 14 個沉浸式系統——我認為這對我們和世界來說都是一個記錄——使我們的整體沉浸式安裝基地有 86 種工具，其中 53 種在亞洲，16 種在日本。

Customers are able to run now up to 2750 wafers per day on this immersion machine, which is equivalent to about 1 million wafer per year.

客戶現在可以在這台浸漬機上每天運行多達 2750 片晶圓，相當於每年約 100 萬片晶圓。

The total number of wafer produced using ASML immersion tool has now surpassed the 10 million mark worldwide.

使用ASML浸入式工俱生產的晶圓總數現已超過1000萬片全球大關。

Steady ramp at our traditional and new customers confirm our product superiority, in particular in terms of throughput, overlay and critical dimension capability.

我們傳統和新客戶的穩定增長證實了我們的產品優勢，特別是在吞吐量、覆蓋和關鍵尺寸能力方面。

We confirm, therefore, our previous expectation that immersion revenues could nearly double in 2008 compared to 2007.

因此，我們確認了我們之前的預期，即與 2007 年相比，2008 年的沉浸式遊戲收入將增長近一倍。

To ensure continued leadership in next-generation technology, we're strengthening our development effort on EUV, the next large leap forward in chip production technology.

為確保在下一代技術方面繼續處於領先地位，我們正在加強 EUV 的開發工作，這是芯片生產技術的下一個重大飛躍。

We report significant progress on this technology, Extreme Ultraviolet.

我們報告了這項技術的重大進展，Extreme Ultraviolet。

[It's the world's] first full field SRAM cell (inaudible) chip is made on one of our EUV machines, and announced at the SPIE Advanced Lithographic Conference of February this year.

[這是世界上] 第一個全場 SRAM 單元（聽不清）芯片是在我們的一台 EUV 機器上製造的，並在今年 2 月的 SPIE 高級光刻會議上宣布。

We have now the final roadmap that will take us down to 11 nanometer.

我們現在有了最終的路線圖，它將把我們帶到 11 納米。

As I mentioned, customers are now transferring to 45 nanometer.

正如我所提到的，客戶現在正在轉向 45 納米。

So we're talking (inaudible) 11 nanometer in the coming decade, and are producing the first five units of EUV technology to be delivered starting early 2010.

因此，我們正在談論（聽不清）未來十年的 11 納米，並且正在生產將於 2010 年初開始交付的前五台 EUV 技術。

In conclusion, the current bookings slowdown that we are seeing is supporting an industry capacity adjust to demand, which is a good thing, which in turn will translate into a sound basis for future investment in the midterm, for which ASML is extremely well-positioned.

總而言之，我們看到的當前預訂放緩正在支持行業產能根據需求進行調整，這是一件好事，這反過來將轉化為未來中期投資的良好基礎，ASML 在這方面處於非常有利的位置.

So, now Peter and I will be available to take your questions.

所以，現在彼得和我可以回答你的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, when asking a question, please identify yourself and your organization.

女士們，先生們，在提問時，請說明您自己和您的組織。

We kindly ask that you limit your question to one, with one short follow-up if necessary.

我們懇請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，必要時進行一次簡短的跟進。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Simon Schafer, Goldman.

西蒙謝弗，高盛。

I wanted to ask a question about NAND flash, and specifically as it relates to your immersion bookings.

我想問一個關於 NAND 閃存的問題，特別是因為它與您的沉浸式預訂有關。

I look at bookings this quarter -- only two systems booked.

我查看本季度的預訂情況——僅預訂了兩個系統。

I was wondering why NAND exactly would accelerate.

我想知道為什麼 NAND 會加速。

I think I understand that, clearly, there's some requirement for shrink somewhere down the line.

我想我明白，很明顯，有一些要求在生產線的某個地方縮小。

But, what gives you the confidence in terms of timing that that would really re-accelerate in the second quarter?

但是，是什麼讓您對第二季度真正重新加速的時間有信心？

There are different reasons for that.

這有不同的原因。

One is you have some new customers who haven't yet booked into the NAND new technologies immersion, which are in the 55 range or different version of shrink.

一是您有一些新客戶尚未預訂 NAND 新技術浸入，這些客戶在 55 範圍或不同版本的縮小範圍內。

One of them is, as you can imagine, IMFT.

正如您想像的那樣，其中之一是 IMFT。

And these are, we say, different waves of booking.

我們說，這些是不同的預訂浪潮。

And you've heard that IMFT have now clarified when they will ship, or when they will start up, basically, their new factory in Singapore.

你聽說 IMFT 現在已經澄清了他們何時發貨，或者他們何時啟動，基本上，他們在新加坡的新工廠。

This also explains why these type of orders were expected in Q1.

這也解釋了為什麼這些類型的訂單會出現在第一季度。

We said in Q4 that we didn't -- we're not sure about the timing.

我們在第四季度說過我們沒有——我們不確定時間。

But at this very moment, if you talk to these type of customers, they will ensure that they will get in now during this timeframe.

但此時此刻，如果你與這些類型的客戶交談，他們將確保他們會在這段時間內進入。

Because if they don't, they will miss a technology node, which would be extremely difficult for them to catch up in the meantime.

因為如果他們不這樣做，他們將錯過一個技術節點，同時他們將很難趕上。

So, first answer is you've got those waves of new people.

所以，第一個答案是你有新人潮。

Second answer is although you are hinting in your question that the flash prices are weak, they are not as bad as DRAM.

第二個答案是，儘管您在問題中暗示閃存價格疲軟，但它們並不像 DRAM 那樣糟糕。

They are on the weak side.

他們處於弱勢一方。

And that has -- that could [question the tail] orders from the current masters of the game, which are Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba, to name three.

這可能會 [質疑尾巴] 當前遊戲大師的訂單，三星、海力士、東芝，僅舉三例。

We are very confident that these are going to build a bit more capacity in the second half.

我們非常有信心，這些將在下半年建立更多的產能。

We expected, and this has always been the case, that this build will not be as high as the first half for most of them, because they usually build by [book].

我們預計，而且情況一直如此，對於他們中的大多數人來說，這個版本不會像上半部分那樣高，因為他們通常由 [book] 構建。

But what is being discussed at this very moment with those larger accounts is it seems to be highly solid and very much in tune on understanding the price levels of flash.

但此時此刻與那些大客戶討論的是，它似乎非常可靠，並且非常符合對閃存價格水平的理解。

My follow-up would be, as a result, would you expect your book-to-bill in immersion to be above one in the second quarter?

因此，我的後續行動是，您是否希望您的沉浸式圖書出貨比在第二季度高於 1？

The book-to-bill above one in the second --

訂單出貨比高於一秒——

Just for your immersion systems.

只為您的沉浸式系統。

Yes.

是的。

I'm being told by Craig I should not give you too much (multiple speakers).

克雷格告訴我我不應該給你太多（多個發言者）。

As you said yourself, and I did not underline, in addition to the flash capacity that I just mentioned, you do have the first orders for the next node, which are happening at the same time, and they are starting in Q2.

正如你自己所說，我沒有強調，除了我剛才提到的閃存容量之外，你確實有下一個節點的第一批訂單，這些訂單是同時發生的，它們從第二季度開始。

So in other terms, you've got a bit of 55 nanometer; you've got a lot of 45 nanometer; you've got some 32, and these are ensuring that we restart in flash booking.

所以換句話說，你有一點 55 納米；你有很多 45 納米；你有大約 32 個，這些確保我們重新開始快速預訂。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Nicolas Gaudois, UBS.

尼古拉斯·高杜瓦，瑞銀。

Just a follow-up on this line of thought.

只是對這一思路的跟進。

Could you give us a bit more granularity on when you expect double patterning flash tools to be required next year, so around which quarter should we start to see that, and when double patterning 32 nanometer microprocessors as well?

您能否更詳細地說明明年何時需要雙圖案化閃存工具，那麼我們應該在哪個季度左右開始看到它，以及何時雙圖案化 32 納米微處理器？

And I've got a follow-up.

我有後續行動。

First of all, I think we are now getting [a little] certainty about which technology we're talking about.

首先，我認為我們現在可以[有點]確定我們正在談論的是哪種技術。

This is new news.

這是新消息。

There were a certain number of competing technologies that were being looked at.

正在研究一定數量的競爭技術。

And I believe at this very moment in the flash sector, the technologies are being (technical difficulty) and they are looking like a mixture of what we call spacer technology and double patterning.

而且我相信此時此刻在閃存領域，技術正在（技術困難）並且它們看起來像是我們所說的間隔技術和雙圖案的混合體。

So this is now clarified, which is good.

所以現在澄清了，這很好。

That means it clarifies -- it's strengthened the possibility of ordering.

這意味著它澄清了——它加強了訂購的可能性。

These will be used in what they call the 32 nanometer nodes, and the 32 nanometer nodes we expect to ramp in the Q1 or Q2 timeframe of '09.

這些將用於他們所謂的 32 納米節點，以及我們預計在 09 年第一季度或第二季度推出的 32 納米節點。

We already have a picture of the needs, and we believe that it will be still more -- requiring more capacity in terms of (inaudible) than the current 45 nanometer type nodes.

我們已經了解了需求，我們相信它會更多——需要比當前 45 納米類型節點更多的容量（聽不清）。

Regarding logic, it's even better for us and a bit worse for our customer in the sense that they cannot use spacer technology, which requires a bit less immersion than what we call pure double patterning, where you absolutely need two immersion layers on top of each other.

關於邏輯，這對我們來說更好，對我們的客戶來說更糟，因為他們不能使用間隔技術，這比我們所說的純雙圖案需要更少的浸入，在每個純雙圖案上你絕對需要兩個浸入層其他。

These technologies also now being frozen in the logic sector, and we are going to see certain numbers of customers buying in the first half of '09.

這些技術現在也被凍結在邏輯領域，我們將在 09 年上半年看到一定數量的客戶購買。

But, we would still expect logic to not represent a very large part of immersion.

但是，我們仍然希望邏輯不會代表沉浸感的很大一部分。

It will still be dwarfed by the flash ramp, and by the new immersion ramp of DRAM, which will start definitively, or has already started a bit, but will be in production in Q3 of this year, and more customers will come from Q4, Q1, Q2 of '09.

它仍然會與閃存坡道相比相形見絀，而與 DRAM 的新浸入式坡道相比，它最終將開始，或者已經開始，但將在今年第三季度投產，更多客戶將來自第四季度， 09 年第一季度、第二季度。

So DRAM is really the segment that will boost everything for two reasons.

因此，DRAM 確實是一個可以推動一切發展的領域，原因有二。

One, DRAM is still larger than Flash, so a transition -- node transition is a big thing in a big sector.

第一，DRAM 仍然比 Flash 大，所以過渡——節點過渡是一個大部門中的一件大事。

And second reason is DRAM has more immersion layer than flash.

第二個原因是 DRAM 比閃存有更多的浸沒層。

So, for two reasons, we would expect DRAM to be potentially a bigger buyer of immersion than flash altogether in the first half of '09.

因此，出於兩個原因，我們預計在 09 年上半年，DRAM 將成為比閃存更大的潛在買家。

Great.

偉大的。

Just a follow-up.

只是一個跟進。

[Obviously, you start with a] question in this environment of whether the tools are needed, but whether your customers can actually buy them at some point.

[顯然，你從一個]問題開始，在這種環境下是否需要這些工具，但你的客戶是否真的可以在某個時候購買它們。

If you look at your memory backlog, it's EUR650 million at the end of March.

如果你看一下你的記憶積壓，到 3 月底是 6.5 億歐元。

Could you tell us how much of that is non-Samsung, non-Toshiba -- so all of the rest -- which we would qualify would be higher risk balance sheet customers?

你能告訴我們其中有多少是非三星、非東芝——所以所有其他的——我們認為這些客戶將是資產負債表風險較高的客戶？

It's a bit hard to give that to you on the phone without making mistakes, but I would say this (multiple speakers).

很難通過電話將其提供給您而不出錯，但我會這樣說（多個揚聲器）。

There is no DRAM second tier, as we said in our press release, because we are expecting this to happen sometime much later in 2008.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說，沒有 DRAM 第二層，因為我們預計這會在 2008 年晚些時候發生。

But it is, I would say, well -- it's well-spread on the top three at this moment.

但我想說的是，它目前在前三名中分佈得很好。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

I was wondering if you could maybe let us know when you think sales will start recovering again.

我想知道您是否可以讓我們知道您認為銷售何時會再次開始復蘇。

Would that be in the fourth quarter?

那會在第四季度嗎？

And could you give some more light -- shed some more light on immersion sales this year?

你能否提供更多信息 - 更詳細地說明今年的沉浸式銷售情況？

I didn't catch your question.

我沒聽清你的問題。

Can you please repeat?

你能重複一遍嗎？

The first one or the second one?

第一個還是第二個？

The first one.

第一個。

If you could tell us when sales will start growing again, in which quarter.

如果你能告訴我們銷售什麼時候會再次開始增長，在哪個季度。

By saying that we expect two quarters a bit weaker -- in fact, when we say a bit weaker, you've seen our guidance on Q2, these are still big numbers.

通過說我們預計兩個季度會有點疲軟——事實上，當我們說有點疲軟時，你已經看到了我們對第二季度的指導，這些仍然是很大的數字。

We have been at above 900, so this time we declared to be a bit lower than 900, but this is still a good quarter -- weaker, but a good quarter.

我們一直在 900 以上，所以這次我們宣布略低於 900，但這仍然是一個很好的季度——較弱，但也是一個很好的季度。

Then we've declared that Q3 may be on the low side in view of the bookings -- low bookings of Q1.

然後我們宣布，鑑於預訂量，第三季度可能偏低——第一季度的預訂量較低。

This is natural, so this is based on the lead time, and therefore -- and we expect the pickup, as we said, in Q2 of the bookings.

這是很自然的，所以這是基於提前期，因此——正如我們所說，我們預計在第二季度的預訂中會出現提貨。

We said the gradual bookings picked up in unit, and we said significant value pickup in bookings in Q2.

我們說單位的預訂量逐漸回升，我們說第二季度的預訂量顯著回升。

So you can imagine that significant value booking pickup in Q2 will translate into significant sales in Q4.

因此，您可以想像，第二季度顯著的價值預訂回升將轉化為第四季度的顯著銷售額。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, the first part.

是的，第一部分。

The second part was on the immersion forecast for the year.

第二部分是年度浸入率預測。

As I said, it's still -- we said that we would nearly double.

正如我所說，它仍然 - 我們說過我們將幾乎翻一番。

We've been consistent in this for the past six months, and so I say the same thing.

在過去的六個月裡，我們在這方面一直保持一致，所以我說同樣的話。

Double versus 2007.

與 2007 年相比翻了一番。

Sorry; was that nearly double or really double?

對不起;那是幾乎翻倍還是真的翻倍？

Nearly double in Q1 at the end of Q4, and that's a statement that still stands.

在第四季度末的第一季度幾乎翻了一番，這一說法仍然有效。

I use the same nearly and the same accent.

我使用幾乎相同的口音。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse.

Satya Kumar，瑞士信貸。

I had a question on immersion.

我有一個關於沉浸的問題。

Can you give us a sense of how many layers of immersion is needed for NAND at 55, 45 and 32?

您能告訴我們 NAND 在 55、45 和 32 層需要浸入多少層嗎？

Is there one answer for that?

有一個答案嗎？

I think we can follow-up with you.

我想我們可以跟進你。

But, (inaudible) and more when you go from one technology to the other.

但是，（聽不清）當你從一種技術轉向另一種技術時會更多。

You would add a minimum of 10%, so one layer.

您至少要添加 10%，所以一層。

And this is flash, and then DRAM is more than that.

而這就是閃存，然後DRAM不止於此。

But I think (multiple speakers)

但我認為（多個發言者）

If you want details, I think you should refer to Craig and to Frank, who can give you the details.

如果您需要詳細信息，我認為您應該向 Craig 和 Frank 求助，他們可以為您提供詳細信息。

I don't think we have them here.

我認為我們這裡沒有。

The other question I have is, on immersion, what are the expectations for immersion unit shipments for the market this year?

另外一個問題是，關於immersion，今年市場對immersion unit的出貨量有何期待？

How much of your doubling of sales is market share versus market?

您的銷售額翻倍中有多少是市場份額與市場份額的比值？

Interesting question.

有趣的問題。

We believe that the doubling that is a good number of immersion tools we shipped this year will be -- they will be a number -- I'm calculating fast in my head -- about 15% of them.

我們相信，我們今年出貨的沉浸式工具數量翻了一番——它們將是一個數字——我正在快速計算——大約佔其中的 15%。

10 to 15% of the total number will be market share gain.

總數的 10% 到 15% 將獲得市場份額。

And the rest will be market, also driven by the node transitions in DRAM.

其餘的將是市場，也由 DRAM 中的節點轉換驅動。

So we had flash last year, and we have, of course, flash continuation this year and DRAM transition this year.

所以我們去年有閃存，當然今年我們有閃存延續和今年的 DRAM 過渡。

It sounds like 10 to 15% sequential market share gains.

這聽起來像是 10% 到 15% 的連續市場份額增長。

When you go from -- looking out into your June quarter, it sounds like you have a pretty big increase in your immersion bookings.

當你從——展望你的 6 月季度時，聽起來你的沉浸式預訂量有了相當大的增加。

In your non-immersion bookings that you expect in the June quarter, is that likely to be up or down sequentially?

在您預期的 6 月季度的非沉浸式預訂中，它可能會連續上升還是下降？

How should we think about that?

我們應該如何考慮？

As you know, we booked a very small amount in Q1.

如您所知，我們在第一季度預訂的數量非常少。

So we don't expect to go lower than that in what we call the capacity orders.

因此，我們預計不會低於我們所說的產能訂單。

Could it be lower, the non-immersion (inaudible)?

它可以更低，非沉浸式（聽不清）嗎？

I'm not going to be more granular.

我不會更細化。

We think at this moment the whole industry is not booking a significant or any number of capacity CapEx.

我們認為目前整個行業都沒有預定大量或任何數量的產能資本支出。

So if Q1 is a bit lower or higher than Q2, it's irrelevant.

因此，如果 Q1 略低於或高於 Q2，則無關緊要。

The reason why ASML is doing better than everybody is we are doing this immersion business, which at the end is responsible for most of those 900 million of sales that we're doing.

ASML 之所以比所有人都好，是因為我們在做沉浸式業務，而這最終為我們所做的 9 億銷售額中的大部分負責。

Now, that is good news, what I say is good news.

現在，這是個好消息，我說的是個好消息。

In other terms, I'm saying that at this moment, we're not calling a pickup of capacity orders.

換句話說，我是說此時此刻，我們並沒有要求提貨產能訂單。

And this is an important message.

這是一個重要信息。

It basically says we are conservative or realistic as to the fact that there is a crisis out there, and that customers are not going to take risk, further risk on capacity.

它基本上說我們對存在危機這一事實持保守或現實的態度，並且客戶不會承擔風險，進一步承擔容量風險。

But by saying this, we're saying that the DRAM business is not building up further capacity.

但通過這樣說，我們是在說 DRAM 業務沒有進一步增加產能。

In fact, you have noticed that in the presentation we have on the Web, we are showing that DRAM capacity built is going to be less than 2% [growth], if our view as I presented is correct.

事實上，您已經註意到，在我們在網絡上的演示中，如果我提出的觀點是正確的，我們將表明 DRAM 容量的構建將低於 2% [增長]。

So, very low capacity built.

因此，構建的容量非常低。

I also mentioned in my little discussion in the beginning that foundry is not building capacity, or is building capacity one at a time.

我在一開始的小討論中也提到，鑄造廠不是在建設能力，或者是一次一個地建設能力。

So, very low.

所以，非常低。

So on this trajectory, which is pretty dismal, we have still, I would say, I think, good body language about our future on 2008, because we have immersion.

因此，在這條非常令人沮喪的軌跡上，我想說，我認為，關於我們 2008 年的未來，我們仍然擁有良好的肢體語言，因為我們沉浸其中。

On the other hand, you should take this also as a positive statement that if this industry doesn't build enough capacity and then the demand picks up, we're going to have significant potential.

另一方面，你也應該將這視為一個積極的聲明，即如果這個行業沒有建立足夠的產能，然後需求回升，我們將擁有巨大的潛力。

Also as a reference, you could go to slide 25 of the presentation, where you can see that for -- immersion is close to 60% of the backlog, which is basically leading edge.

同樣作為參考，您可以轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 25，您可以在其中看到 - 沉浸感接近積壓的 60%，這基本上處於領先地位。

And the 30% (inaudible) is leading edge for our logic customers.

30%（聽不清）是我們邏輯客戶的領先優勢。

So it is largely -- 90% of the backlog is leading edge.

所以它在很大程度上 - 90% 的積壓是前沿的。

And there's just above 10% of capacity orders in the backlog.

積壓訂單中的產能訂單略高於 10%。

And like Eric said, we don't think it's going to change that much over the next one or two quarters.

正如埃里克所說，我們認為在接下來的一兩個季度內不會發生太大變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harlan Sur, Morgan Stanley.

Harlan Sur，摩根士丹利。

Nice execution on the March quarter.

三月季度執行得很好。

As it relates to the market share gains, you mentioned you had 16 immersion tools installed in Japan; that's up from 14 (technical difficulty).

關於市場份額的增加，您提到您在日本安裝了 16 個浸入式工具；高於 14（技術難度）。

I'm just curious as to what's your expectation on installed systems in Japan exiting 2008.

我只是想知道您對 2008 年日本安裝的系統有何期望。

At the end of 2008 in Japan, it is possible that we will finish with another -- maybe another 10 -- 10 -- 10 to 15.

2008 年底在日本，我們可能會完成另一個 - 可能是另一個 10 - 10 - 10 到 15。

An incremental 10 to 15 tools?

增量 10 到 15 個工具？

Excellent.

出色的。

And then, on that same note, maybe you can touch upon the progress you're making with the one Japan customer, I think, who's currently qualifying your immersion tool.

然後，在同一個說明上，也許你可以談談你與一位日本客戶取得的進展，我認為，他目前正在驗證你的浸入式工具。

The question is, how is the call proceeding?

問題是，通話是如何進行的？

When do you expect them to start taking deliveries if everything works out?

如果一切順利，您預計他們什麼時候開始收貨？

On the technical side, everything is progressing ahead of schedule.

在技術方面，一切都在提前進行。

As you may imagine, these machines are complicated, and they have to adapt to a now completely different environment when you go to a new customer.

就像你想像的那樣，這些機器很複雜，當你去見一個新客戶時，它們必須適應現在完全不同的環境。

This is happening very smoothly, and I guess the market rumors may confirm that.

這一切發生得非常順利，我猜市場傳言可能會證實這一點。

The decision, I think, is still the same.

我認為，這個決定仍然是一樣的。

We have been told that the decision to proceed or not with us, and at which speed and at which size, will be taken starting early -- starting end of June.

我們被告知，決定是否繼續與我們合作，以及以何種速度和規模，將提前開始——從 6 月底開始。

So I would say negotiations and planning, etcetera, may take a bit of time within the July timeframe.

所以我想說，談判和規劃等可能需要在 7 月的時間框架內花費一些時間。

So I don't know if by the July call that we'll be able to report.

所以我不知道我們是否能夠在 7 月的電話會議上報告。

That doesn't mean that we don't have it, but it's one of those things where you have to negotiate and plan, and you know that we have some leadtime.

這並不意味著我們沒有，但這是你必須談判和計劃的事情之一，你知道我們有一些準備時間。

That will be happening.

那將會發生。

At this moment, we feel comfortable because we haven't seen significant pressure by our competitor.

此時此刻，我們感到很舒服，因為我們沒有看到來自競爭對手的巨大壓力。

And we've seen the momentum of our immersion tool at the other customers, who are making, I would say -- or giving a sense of confidence to these new customers about our capabilities.

我們已經在其他客戶身上看到了我們的沉浸式工具的發展勢頭，我想說，他們正在製作——或者讓這些新客戶對我們的能力充滿信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great progress.

很大的進步。

Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡，花旗集團。

Number one, do you have any way of gauging what percentage -- so, as of the end of Q1, what percentage of the total 45 nanometer system opportunity have you chewed through?

第一，你有沒有辦法衡量百分比——那麼，截至第一季度末，你已經咀嚼了 45 納米系統機會的百分比是多少？

Basically, if the industry is going to book, say, X number of systems, what percentage of those systems have basically already been booked?

基本上，如果該行業要預訂 X 數量的系統，那麼基本上已經預訂了這些系統的百分比是多少？

Unfortunately -- I would like to have that answer -- this is where the limit of our visibility is, where customers kind of plan things and change every day.

不幸的是——我想得到這個答案——這是我們可見性的限制所在，客戶每天都在計劃事情和改變。

So you do have for each of the customer a mix between the usage of an immersion tool in flash or DRAM.

因此，對於每個客戶，您確實需要在閃存或 DRAM 中混合使用浸入式工具。

That's the first thing.

這是第一件事。

And they would take the decision at the last moment.

他們會在最後一刻做出決定。

And then you have -- in the flash you would have 56 or 55, whatever, 45, or even 32 in R&D.

然後你有 - 在閃光燈中你將有 56 或 55，無論如何，45，甚至 32 在研發中。

The decision is really fluid on their side; it really depends on the prices of the chips.

他們的決定真的很不穩定。這實際上取決於芯片的價格。

So in other terms, if they want to sell [one 512] or 1 gig (inaudible) DRAM, or whatever, they will change their mix.

因此，換句話說，如果他們想出售 [one 512] 或 1 gig（聽不清）DRAM 或其他任何東西，他們將改變他們的組合。

So unfortunately -- in fact, I am trying to get this (inaudible) for my own sake, and to manage the model, I would say with certainty our supply chain, but I can't even do this.

所以不幸的是 - 事實上，我正試圖為了我自己的緣故得到這個（聽不清），並且為了管理模型，我可以肯定地說我們的供應鏈，但我什至不能這樣做。

And do you have any view on what the incremental cost benefit is as these NAND companies go to 45 and also 32 nanometer?

隨著這些 NAND 公司轉向 45 納米和 32 納米，您對增量成本效益有何看法？

There's been some chatter that there actually is less incremental cost benefit once you get beyond 45 nanometer.

有一些傳言說，一旦超過 45 納米，增量成本收益實際上會減少。

Have you had any talks with your customers?

你有沒有和你的客戶談過？

What is your sense on that?

你對此有何看法？

What you hear, which is -- which we confirm, is the semiconductor industry in general, whether it is flash, logic, or DRAM, are concerned about the affordability of the technology.

你聽到的，也就是我們確認的，是整個半導體行業，無論是閃存、邏輯還是 DRAM，都關心技術的可承受性。

And of course we are one of the guilty people.

當然，我們也是有罪的人之一。

Litho costs more money, and as we said, the good news is it has -- it gives us an opportunity for growth.

Litho 成本更高，正如我們所說，好消息是它給了我們增長的機會。

The bad news is our customers need to invest more in litho, and therefore, they are concerned about the cost of litho, but as I said, the cost of technology.

壞消息是我們的客戶需要在光刻上投入更多，因此，他們關心光刻的成本，但正如我所說，技術成本。

So people would tell you that for a 1 centimeter square of a given technology, [65], (inaudible) the 1 centimeter square of 45 is much more expensive, and it is dramatic and a major issue, and the industry should look at ways of cost reducing.

所以人們會告訴你，對於 1 平方厘米的給定技術，[65]，（聽不清）45 的 1 平方厘米要貴得多，這是一個引人注目的重大問題，行業應該尋找方法降低成本。

So that we hear.

好讓我們聽到。

And it is true that there is some kind of acceleration of that phenomenon, so the industry is addressing.

的確，這種現像在某種程度上有所加速，因此該行業正在解決。

But, if you look at it differently, if you understand that technology does not -- in fact enables you to either shrink the die or to put more feature on the die, then per feature, the technology still is much cheaper.

但是，如果你以不同的方式看待它，如果你明白技術不能——實際上使你能夠縮小芯片或在芯片上添加更多功能，那麼對於每個功能，該技術仍然便宜得多。

So -- and it's much, much, by a major factor.

所以——這是一個非常非常重要的因素。

It's even an exponential curve.

它甚至是指數曲線。

So if a customer is capable of selling its chip for the value contained -- that is for the numbers of transistors contained -- then there's no issues at all.

因此，如果客戶能夠按照所包含的價值（即包含的晶體管數量）出售其芯片，那麼就沒有任何問題。

So now, this is theoretical.

所以現在，這是理論上的。

What's happening practically when you do a -- when you go from 55 nano to 45 nano flash, the whole game depends on the market price.

當你做一個 - 當你從 55 納米到 45 納米閃存時，實際發生了什麼，整個遊戲取決於市場價格。

And this has happened this year as bad news for the industry, which is fully responsible for some of the problem that we're seeing today.

今年發生的這對行業來說是個壞消息，它對我們今天看到的一些問題負有全部責任。

People were going towards a shrink, so in fact the one that happened was between 65 and 55, because the shrink at 55 supposedly got them more margin.

人們正在走向收縮，所以實際上發生在 65 到 55 之間，因為 55 的收縮據說讓他們有更多的利潤。

But it was assuming that the price of the market for the 55 nanometer chip was not going down as fast as the 65.

但它假設 55 納米芯片的市場價格不會像 65 納米芯片那樣下降得那麼快。

But, because everybody jumped into this market, there was a supply/demand question, and the chip price of the new technology all went down much faster than historically.

但是，因為大家紛紛湧入這個市場，出現了供需問題，新技術的芯片價格都比歷史上下降得更快。

And therefore, the customers came out with a same type of margin at the 65 nanometer, the old technology, or at 55 nano, the new technology.

因此，客戶在 65 納米（舊技術）或 55 納米（新技術）上獲得了相同類型的利潤。

So these type of things happen.

所以這些類型的事情發生了。

So in other terms, market price makes more difference than my theoretical view of life, as I explained at the beginning.

所以換句話說，市場價格比我對生活的理論看法更重要，正如我在開頭解釋的那樣。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sorry for the complexity of my answer.

抱歉我的回答很複雜。

Jonathan Crossfield, Merrill Lynch.

喬納森·克羅斯菲爾德，美林證券。

My first question was on the decision to cut SG&A in the second half, but leave R&D unchanged.

我的第一個問題是關於下半年削減 SG&A 但保持研發不變的決定。

What's the thinking behind this, given that you have so much more scale than your competitors.

考慮到您的規模比競爭對手大得多，這背後的想法是什麼？

And what would trigger, in your minds, a decision to scale back R&D?

在您看來，什麼會觸發縮減研發的決定？

I think the thinking behind this is that in R&D we have a few major projects that we're executing that we think are vital for the medium-term future of the Company.

我認為這背後的想法是，在研發方面，我們正在執行一些我們認為對公司中期未來至關重要的重大項目。

You can talk about the advantage we currently have in our current immersion technology, so that is at least the first project that we're working on in R&D.

你可以談談我們目前在沉浸式技術方面的優勢，所以這至少是我們在研發中進行的第一個項目。

The second one is the next generation -- that's the next-generation architecture.

第二個是下一代——也就是下一代架構。

The next-generation architecture is necessary for double patterning, and I think I talked about that quite extensively.

下一代架構對於雙重圖案化是必要的，我想我已經談得相當廣泛了。

That is something that we need to execute if we want to secure our market share position that we currently have.

如果我們想確保我們目前擁有的市場份額地位，這就是我們需要執行的事情。

The third one is EUV.

第三個是EUV。

Eric said very, very clearly that we have shown, clearly, the viability of EUV because it can make four chips, as we have shown at the conference in February, the SPIE conference.

Eric 非常非常清楚地說，我們已經清楚地展示了 EUV 的可行性，因為它可以製造四個芯片，正如我們在 2 月份的 SPIE 會議上展示的那樣。

So a lot of things need to be done to make EUV production [worthy] to ship the first preproduction tools in 2010.

因此，需要做很多事情才能使 EUV 生產 [值得] 在 2010 年交付第一批預生產工具。

You can argue that that is currently not a distinguishing factor in the business that we have vis-a-vis our competitors today, but it will be in two to three years from now.

你可以爭辯說，目前這不是我們今天與競爭對手的業務的區別因素，但它會在兩到三年後出現。

On top of that, we have litho plus, which is the (inaudible) integration, and it's the in-situ metrology development that we're combining with our scanner solutions, which we believe is together with the new architecture in absolute necessity to do effective double patterning.

最重要的是，我們有 litho plus，這是（聽不清）集成，它是我們與我們的掃描儀解決方案相結合的現場計量開發，我們相信這與新架構一起是絕對必要的有效的雙圖案。

So those are four projects -- immersion, the next architecture, EUV, and extended litho -- which we believe are vital to the mid and long-term future of this company for us to be able to sustain the market shares that we currently have.

所以這四個項目——沉浸式、下一個架構、EUV 和擴展光刻——我們認為這對這家公司的中長期未來至關重要，因為我們能夠維持我們目前擁有的市場份額.

That is the reason why we aren't cutting (inaudible) R&D.

這就是我們不削減（聽不清）研發的原因。

And to be honest, like Eric also said as an answer on one of the questions, we do believe that we will see in Q4 an uptick.

老實說，就像埃里克在回答其中一個問題時所說的那樣，我們確實相信我們會在第四季度看到一個增長。

And that means that we are looking at two quarters that will be weaker in terms of sales as previous ones, but that is not enough for us to start cutting in R&D.

這意味著我們預計兩個季度的銷售額將低於前幾個季度，但這還不足以讓我們開始削減研發。

If you say when do you start cutting R&D, we will have to see a very sustained long downturn with severe pressure on the capacity additions and on the technology needs of our customers.

如果你說你什麼時候開始削減研發，我們將不得不看到一個非常持續的長期低迷，對產能增加和客戶的技術需求造成巨大壓力。

We aren't seeing that.

我們沒有看到這一點。

And by the time that we see it, we'll communicate that, and you'll see our actions in the R&D line.

到我們看到它的時候，我們會傳達這一點，你會看到我們在研發線上的行動。

But not earlier.

但不是更早。

Just as a quick follow-up, could you update us on the XT 1000 KrF tool, and has that started to ship yet in place of dry ArF?

作為快速跟進，您能否向我們更新 XT 1000 KrF 工具，它是否已經開始發貨以代替幹 ArF？

No.

不。

It has been announced for the Q3 timeframe for the first shipment, and it is planned to ship as scheduled.

首批出貨時間已經公佈，計劃如期出貨。

I would not put this yet in my model about our future forecast this significant conversion.

我不會把它放在我關於我們未來預測這一重大轉變的模型中。

I remind the audience who do not know, this is a product that is supposedly allowing customers to convert back from an expensive ArF environment to a KrF environment, and still do the same type of shrink.

我提醒不知道的聽眾，這是一種產品，據說可以讓客戶從昂貴的 ArF 環境轉換回 KrF 環境，並且仍然進行相同類型的收縮。

So, in order to do that, you need to do significant R&D.

因此，為了做到這一點，您需要進行大量研發。

So we expect the R&D to be minimum six months if not one year before the customer can significantly take advantage of that.

因此，我們預計研發至少需要六個月甚至一年才能讓客戶充分利用它。

So we will ship some of [that then], but production will probably be due mid 2009.

所以我們將運送一些 [that then]，但生產可能會在 2009 年年中到期。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Didier Scemama, ABN AMRO.

荷蘭銀行的 Didier Scemama。

First of all, looking at the competitive landscape, it seems like this year your market sharing value would be probably somewhere between 70 and perhaps 75%, and you're taking share in Japan potentially with immersion at the only customer that would potentially deploy immersion that is not using ASML, if that's clear enough.

首先，看看競爭格局，今年您的市場份額價值似乎可能在 70% 到 75% 之間，並且您可能會在日本獲得潛在的份額，而 immersion 是唯一可能部署 immersion 的客戶那不是使用 ASML，如果足夠清楚的話。

So, my first question would be, do you think there is enough room left for your two other Japanese competitors in the market outside of the RF immersion?

所以，我的第一個問題是，您認為除了 RF immersion 之外，市場上還有足夠的空間供您的另外兩個日本競爭對手使用嗎？

And my second question is related to the DRAM industry, and whether or not you expect 200 millimeter capacity retirement potentially in the second half of this year triggering maybe more 200 millimeter equipment demand at the same timeframe basically.

我的第二個問題與 DRAM 行業有關，你是否預計今年下半年 200 毫米的產能退役可能會在同一時間段觸發更多的 200 毫米設備需求。

Regarding the competition, I guess I would have to have two facets to the answer.

關於競爭，我想我必須有兩個方面的答案。

It is true that if lithography is a good business and a growing business, it is possible that a second player at 30% market share could make a good business, and we suppose that will happen.

誠然，如果光刻是一門好生意，而且是一個成長中的生意，那麼擁有 30% 市場份額的第二個參與者就有可能成為一門好生意，我們認為這會發生。

Can two players share that for a period of time?

兩個玩家可以分享一段時間嗎？

Yes and no.

是和不是。

What we've seen with our competitors is they are lucky enough to have another business called LCDs.

我們從我們的競爭對手身上看到的是，他們很幸運能夠擁有另一項名為 LCD 的業務。

So when you look at total portfolio, they may be pretty small on the semiconductor side, but they may be bigger on the LCD side, and therefore, they can potentially remain in the large machinery-type business by mixing the two business models.

因此，當您查看總投資組合時，它們在半導體方面可能很小，但在 LCD 方面可能更大，因此，通過混合兩種業務模式，它們有可能保留在大型機械類業務中。

So, in other terms, I could imagine that it would be a stable business to have 75% market share, and the rest being shared by two, and those two using LCD to help them having critical mass of some sort.

因此，換句話說，我可以想像，擁有 75% 的市場份額，其餘由兩家公司分享，而這兩家公司使用 LCD 來幫助他們達到某種臨界質量，這將是一項穩定的業務。

The 200 millimeter question -- yes; we've seen multiple plans and multiple changes of mind about when each of the 200 millimeter fabs will be closed.

200 毫米的問題——是的；關於何時關閉每個 200 毫米晶圓廠，我們已經看到了多個計劃和多個想法的改變。

Certain numbers have been announced.

某些數字已經公佈。

I think I made it clear that there were four that we knew of at the beginning of Q4.

我想我已經明確表示，我們在第四季度初就知道有四個。

Those ones are being -- are proceeding.

那些正在——正在進行中。

They are being upgraded basically from 200 to 300.

他們基本上從200升級到300。

If I'm not mistaken, I think the [walls] are still there.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為 [牆] 還在那裡。

So it's already a 300 millimeter opportunity for us, so it's happening.

所以這對我們來說已經是一個 300 毫米的機會，所以它正在發生。

But in the past three or four months, I haven't heard of any new ones.

可這三四個月來，也沒聽說有什麼新的。

And this is in line with the fact that the DRAM and flash environment is really at this very moment focusing on what is the price of the market going to look like before they get to another set of decisions.

這符合這樣一個事實，即 DRAM 和閃存環境此時此刻真正關注的是在他們做出另一組決定之前市場價格會是什麼樣子。

So today, you've heard the DRAM players are very clear, clearly focusing on the marketing point, which is we will raise the price.

所以今天大家聽DRAM玩家說的很清楚，很明顯是在營銷點上，就是要漲價。

And they are raising the price by forcing it in, and by freezing activities, freezing plans, which is why we didn't book, as I said.

他們通過強制加入、凍結活動、凍結計劃來提高價格，這就是我們沒有預訂的原因，正如我所說的。

And this is the two things they do.

這是他們做的兩件事。

And they don't think about something more extraordinary, which would be to close further and faster 200 millimeter.

而且他們沒有考慮更非凡的事情，那就是更遠更快地關閉 200 毫米。

I think what we heard already is significant enough.

我認為我們所聽到的已經足夠重要了。

Just a quick follow-up.

只是快速跟進。

In terms of share buybacks, you've increased -- or you have announced dividend, which will allow you a pretty significant tax-free share buyback, I think, next year.

在股票回購方面，你已經增加了——或者你已經宣布了股息，我認為這將使你在明年進行相當大的免稅股票回購。

I'm just (multiple speakers).

我只是（多個發言者）。

Sorry?

對不起？

2010.

2010.

2010.

2010.

Do you have any plans to maybe use -- do you have maybe a reverse stock split, given your excess gross cash on the balance sheet?

鑑於資產負債表上的現金總額過剩，您是否有任何可能使用的計劃 - 您是否有反向股票分割？

And what would be sort of the factors that would drive a new share buyback?

推動新股回購的因素有哪些？

I think it's nothing changed, I would say.

我認為這沒有任何改變，我會說。

I think we have a clear financial policy in which we say we will do -- we will return excess cash as defined outside the bandwidth of the Company that we said is between 1 and 1.5 billion.

我認為我們有一個明確的財務政策，我們說我們會做 - 我們將退還我們所說的公司帶寬之外定義的超額現金，即 1 到 15 億美元。

When we have excess cash we will return it to shareholders.

當我們有多餘的現金時，我們會將其返還給股東。

Now, the straight buyback has been closed until 2010 because of the difficult situation with respect to the withholding tax issue.

現在，直接回購已經結束，直到 2010 年，因為預扣稅問題的困難局面。

But there are still options open for us to do things like the capital repayment and the reverse stock split.

但是我們仍然可以選擇做資本償還和反向股票分割等事情。

That has not changed.

那沒有改變。

We have said that before, and we keep repeating it.

我們以前說過，我們一直在重複。

When and how will, of course, be announced, I would say, when it is there.

當然，何時以及如何宣布，我會說，當它在那裡時。

So there's nothing to announce today.

所以今天沒有什麼可宣布的。

We will do that in due time.

我們會在適當的時候這樣做。

But our appetite for buyback is still there.

但我們回購的胃口仍然存在。

And as Peters says, it's now a technicality when we execute these (multiple speakers)

正如彼得斯所說，當我們執行這些（多個揚聲器）時，它現在是一個技術問題

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jim Fontanelli, Arete.

吉姆·方塔內利，阿雷特。

Firstly, on inventory, your inventory is up, obviously, sequentially near 30% year-on-year against a backdrop of falling sales.

首先，在庫存方面，在銷售下降的背景下，你們的庫存顯然比去年同期增加了近 30%。

So I was wondering if you could run through why that is.

所以我想知道你是否可以解釋為什麼會這樣。

I guess it's to do with maybe growing immersion shipments.

我想這可能與不斷增長的浸入式出貨量有關。

But I'd be interested to [follow through] on that.

但我有興趣[跟進]。

And secondly, whether you're seeing an increasing use of sale and leaseback by, maybe, some of your more financially stretched customers, to make CapEx budgets stretch a bit further.

其次，您是否看到一些財務狀況較差的客戶越來越多地使用售後回租，以使資本支出預算進一步增加。

I will handle inventory and Peter will handle the sale and leaseback.

我負責庫存，彼得負責售後回租。

For the inventory, obviously, as a former guy from Dell, I do not appreciate inventory, so we do have significant efficiency projects to reduce inventory.

對於庫存，顯然，作為戴爾的前員工，我不喜歡庫存，所以我們確實有顯著的效率項目來減少庫存。

And this is working, I would say, pretty nice.

這是有效的，我會說，非常好。

One part of the project is about cycle time reduction in production so the width is reduced, and another part of the project is to have part of the load being shared with the suppliers, and that has also happened.

該項目的一部分是關於減少生產週期時間，從而減少寬度，該項目的另一部分是與供應商分擔部分負荷，這也已經發生了。

So we're doing okay there.

所以我們在那裡做得很好。

What you see in the rise of inventory, however, is two things.

然而，您在庫存上升中看到的是兩件事。

One is, yes, a mix.

一個是，是的，混合。

The immersion mix is extremely high, much higher than in a normal environment, because we don't have any capacity orders.

沉浸式混音非常高，比正常環境高很多，因為我們沒有任何容量訂單。

I'll give you an order of magnitude.

我會給你一個數量級。

A 1900 immersion machine will take about 14 weeks, 15 weeks to be manufactured, that is to be carried on inventory.

一台 1900 浸入式機器大約需要 14 週、15 週的時間來製造，也就是進行庫存。

And a KrF machine would take about six weeks, four to six weeks.

一台 KrF 機器大約需要六週，四到六週。

So, this makes a difference of (inaudible).

因此，這會產生差異（聽不清）。

The second aspect is voluntary.

第二個方面是自願的。

We said to you last time that we would boost the inventory voluntarily because of the uncertainty of the market.

我們上次跟大家說了，因為市場的不確定性，我們會主動增加庫存。

And at the type of market share that we are reaching, it is difficult for us to take a risk that we are not able to deliver when the customers start picking up.

在我們所達到的市場份額類型下，我們很難承擔當客戶開始接貨時我們無法交付的風險。

And the foundries, very much so at this moment, are still buying a good level -- not a great level, a good level -- and they do this very, very short leadtime.

而鑄造廠，目前非常如此，仍在購買一個好的水平——不是一個偉大的水平，一個好的水平——他們這樣做的交貨時間非常非常短。

So we do carry a bit more than in an environment where we have more visibility.

所以我們確實比在我們有更多可見性的環境中攜帶更多。

Now to Peter.

現在是彼得。

I think on top of that, what we also have in inventory is a higher-than-normal percentage of tools that are currently in R&D, which are basically good tools, because we are developing the new immersion tools, so we have more, let's say -- I wouldn't call it prototype, but more prototype tools, where we do all of our testing and we do new development on it, than we normally have.

我認為最重要的是，我們的庫存中還有高於正常比例的目前處於研發階段的工具，這些工具基本上是很好的工具，因為我們正在開發新的沉浸式工具，所以我們有更多，讓我們說——我不會稱它為原型，而是更多的原型工具，我們在其中進行所有測試，並在其上進行新的開發，這比我們通常擁有的要多。

Plus we're also building our new architecture, which is currently in the assembly phase.

此外，我們還在構建我們的新架構，該架構目前處於組裝階段。

So that is, I would say, typical for where we are today.

所以，我想說，這對於我們今天所處的位置來說是典型的。

If you look at the immersion ramp, which has been the fastest ramp ever, it also means that the requirements the customers have to control their processes vis-a-vis, let's say, the effectiveness of the tool, require our R&D people for this moment in time to keep more tools in R&D.

如果你看一下浸入式斜坡，它是有史以來最快的斜坡，這也意味著客戶必須控制其流程的要求，比方說，工具的有效性，要求我們的研發人員為此及時將更多工具保留在研發中。

(inaudible) those are good tools that will be sold when the R&D needs for the immersion ramp-up goes down.

（聽不清）這些都是很好的工具，當沉浸式提升的研發需求下降時，它們將被出售。

So that is on top.

所以這是最重要的。

That's, like Eric said, the buffer of the voluntary decision to take some (inaudible) to react fast, there is -- that is there.

就像埃里克說的那樣，這是自願決定採取一些（聽不清）快速反應的緩衝區，那裡有。

It could both add up to about EUR150 million, so that is quite a significant amount of money.

兩者加起來可能達到約 1.5 億歐元，因此這是一筆不小的數目。

Sale and leaseback transactions -- yes, we have seen that.

售後回租交易——是的，我們已經看到了。

We have clearly seen that.

我們已經清楚地看到了這一點。

Actually as a couple of deals have been closed, without going into detail, our -- as a management group who actually helps customers, but also helps some of the leasing companies to get their hands around residual value management, has been extremely active.

實際上，由於幾筆交易已經結束，沒有詳細說明，我們 - 作為一個實際幫助客戶的管理團隊，同時也幫助一些租賃公司掌握剩餘價值管理，一直非常活躍。

And I would say that with the exception probably of a very large memory maker in Korea, almost every memory maker -- DRAM maker is talking to lease companies.

我要說的是，除了韓國一家非常大的內存製造商之外，幾乎所有內存製造商——DRAM 製造商都在與租賃公司進行談判。

And some of them have already closed some of the deals, and some of are in the last stages of closing.

他們中的一些人已經完成了一些交易，還有一些處於完成的最後階段。

And some are having more difficulties.

有些人遇到了更多困難。

That's also clear because the risk is also evident, and some companies are more prone to getting it closed than others.

這一點也很清楚，因為風險也很明顯，一些公司比其他公司更容易倒閉。

But there is a lot of activity in that market.

但是那個市場有很多活動。

Mehdi Hosseini, FBR.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，FBR。

Most of my questions have been answered.

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。

Just (inaudible) long-term strategy, as you look into -- beyond 2009, as advanced logic approaches 32 nanometer, and foundries at 45 and so forth, how should we think about your growth prospects?

只是（聽不清）長期戰略，正如你所看到的——2009 年以後，隨著先進邏輯接近 32 納米，代工廠達到 45 納米等等，我們應該如何看待你的增長前景？

Will [UAV] be enough to sustain the current growth that is supported by immersion, or should we think about other markets?

[無人機]是否足以維持沉浸式支持的當前增長，還是我們應該考慮其他市場？

First of all, the semiconductor leasehold market we still expect to grow, and we expect it in 2010, 2011 or so, to be fairly spread between different technologies.

首先，我們仍預計半導體租賃市場會增長，我們預計它在 2010 年、2011 年左右在不同技術之間公平分佈。

We expect some customers really adopting EUV, and we know why; there are some economics for that.

我們希望一些客戶真正採用 EUV，我們知道為什麼；這有一些經濟學。

We expect some companies to keep immersion alive and using very complicated double patterning situations.

我們希望一些公司能夠保持沉浸感並使用非常複雜的雙重圖案情況。

We expect the low-end i-Line/KrF to be fighting between each other to win this set of easier processes, which is why we introduced the XT 1000.

我們預計低端的 i-Line/KrF 會互相較量以贏得這組更簡單的工藝，這就是我們推出 XT 1000 的原因。

So, if you would want to ask us what the profile of 2010, 2011, 2012, assuming no -- another -- not another financial bubble in there, it would be spread with multiple technologies.

所以，如果你想問我們 2010 年、2011 年、2012 年的概況，假設那裡沒有——另一個——不是另一個金融泡沫，它將通過多種技術傳播。

This is why we're doing so much to develop different architectures.

這就是為什麼我們做這麼多來開發不同的架構。

We believe that there is enough growth in this business that we should not de-focus our attention from there.

我們相信這項業務有足夠的增長，我們不應該將注意力從那裡轉移。

But it is true that in the year 2015 or so, we probably would reach a level of maturity which would make sense for us to think about something a bit different than semiconductors.

但確實，在 2015 年左右，我們可能會達到一個成熟的水平，這對我們來說是有意義的，可以考慮一些與半導體有點不同的東西。

So we have been working on this since the past two years or so.

所以我們在過去兩年左右一直致力於此。

And at this moment, there is nothing like [solar] that we want to announce to the group.

而此時此刻，沒有什麼像 [solar] 一樣我們想向小組宣布的。

But it is a very much strategic [responsibility] for the Company to be sure that we always deliver growth opportunities to our shareholders.

但確保我們始終為股東提供增長機會是公司的一項非常具有戰略意義的[責任]。

But as I said today, we've got a nice run with lithography semiconductor with enough growth that should be where we should spend most of our time.

但正如我今天所說，我們在光刻半導體方面取得了不錯的成績，增長足夠快，這應該是我們應該花大部分時間的地方。

I look at your revenue growth; from 2003 to 2007 you were able to do a CAGR of 25%.

我看你的收入增長；從 2003 年到 2007 年，複合年增長率達到 25%。

Some of it was driven by share gain, some by immersion, and some by capacity purchases.

其中一些是由份額增長驅動的，一些是由沉浸式驅動的，還有一些是由容量購買驅動的。

I guess what I was trying to figure out -- how will -- those growth rates will change over the next three years.

我想我想弄清楚的是——這些增長率將如何在未來三年內發生變化。

I'm certainly not referring to 2015, but more so in terms of the next two to four years.

我當然不是指 2015 年，而是指未來兩到四年。

And especially given the kind of R&D spending you have.

尤其是考慮到你的研發支出。

And I'm trying to better understand how you should think about the dollars of R&D spent, and to what extent is that going to help sustain the past four years' revenue growth.

我正在努力更好地理解你應該如何考慮研發支出的美元，以及這將在多大程度上幫助維持過去四年的收入增長。

Let me answer this.

讓我來回答這個問題。

The danger of taking a point in time and then calculating a compound average growth rate is always what's the moment of start.

採取時間點然後計算複合平均增長率的危險始終是開始的時刻。

In 2003, which was -- you could say the very low point in the last 10 years also in terms of revenue debt, so we grew that from 1.5 to about 3.8 last year.

2003 年，你可以說是過去 10 年中收入債務的最低點，所以我們去年從 1.5 增加到 3.8 左右。

If you would take 2000 or 2001 it would look different.

如果你選擇 2000 年或 2001 年，它看起來會有所不同。

That for just the record.

這只是為了記錄。

If you look going forward, and you don't exclude the cycles, and we anticipate semiconductor unit growth to be around 10%, and you extrapolate that for the different technologies that Eric just talked about, whether it's double patterning extended, or whether it's EUV, and you extrapolate that to 2012.

如果你展望未來，並且不排除週期，我們預計半導體單位增長將在 10% 左右，你可以推斷 Eric 剛才談到的不同技術，無論是雙圖案擴展，還是EUV，你可以推斷到 2012 年。

And you do also -- you include there things like the increased number of litho layers because the complexity goes up.

而且你也這樣做 - 你包括了諸如增加光刻層數量之類的東西，因為複雜性增加了。

As you go to 32 nanometer, you need more litho.

當你走向 32 納米時，你需要更多的光刻技術。

You take that all in consideration.

你把這一切都考慮在內。

Depending on what kind of technology scenario you take, we have shown at the analyst day in November that the total market litho would be anywhere between 10 and 12 billion.

根據您採用的技術情景，我們在 11 月的分析師日表明，總市場規模將在 10 到 120 億之間。

Now, at our 70% market share target, you could easily calculate what that is.

現在，按照我們 70% 的市場份額目標，您可以輕鬆計算出這是多少。

And then you could say over the next -- over the next four to five years would give you a compound annual growth rate of between 12 and 14%.

然後你可以說，在接下來的四到五年裡，你的複合年增長率將在 12% 到 14% 之間。

It depends on what you take.

這取決於你拿什麼。

So that is what we had presented at that time, and there's no reason to say anything else on the [growth model] of the Company now than we did at that time.

所以這就是我們當時提出的，現在沒有理由比我們當時對公司的 [增長模式] 說任何其他的話。

So, I don't have any other information.

所以，我沒有任何其他信息。

But if you say the leverage of R&D to [growth], I think you've got a point that we don't want to commit to you today, but we've said often that we are over-investing at this moment, and that we do expect the R&D load to be lower on us after we've built up all those architectures.

但如果你說研發對 [增長] 的槓桿作用，我認為你有一點我們今天不想向你承諾，但我們經常說我們現在過度投資，並且我們確實希望在我們建立所有這些架構之後，我們的研發負擔會降低。

So we are building an architecture called XT 4; we're building an architecture called [NXT]; we're building an architecture which will be using EUV, which has no name; we are building an architecture in metrology; we're building an architecture in simulation tools, etcetera.

所以我們正在構建一個名為 XT 4 的架構；我們正在構建一個名為 [NXT] 的架構；我們正在構建一個將使用 EUV 的架構，它沒有名字；我們正在建立計量學架構；我們正在用模擬工具等構建架構。

So, yes; this is heavy.

所以，是的；這很重。

Do we need to have so many start-ups in 2010?

2010年需要那麼多初創企業嗎？

No.

不。

So, I do -- I have hinted on a regular basis that we're probably getting at our peak now or the next year or so.

所以，我確實——我經常暗示我們現在或明年左右可能會達到頂峰。

I still believe we can put another 10 million or so per quarter to accelerate those projects, and our duty, I think, is to accelerate them for strategic reasons.

我仍然相信我們可以每季度再投入 1000 萬左右來加速這些項目，我認為我們的職責是出於戰略原因加速它們。

But when they are accelerated and completed, then the level of maintenance R&D is going to be lower.

但是當它們加速完成後，維護研發的水平就會降低。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ben Pang, Caris & Co.

Ben Pang, Caris & Co.

You mentioned the push-out of the two NAND flash factories.

你提到了兩個NAND閃存工廠的推出。

Those essentially have no impact on your immersion projections for 2008, correct?

這些基本上不會影響您對 2008 年的沉浸式預測，對嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

That is correct.

那是對的。

And in terms of the total number of units you're looking at for 2008 right now, including all of your immersion units, what's the level that you're looking at for the whole industry?

就您現在正在尋找的 2008 年單位總數而言，包括您所有的沉浸式單位，您正在尋找整個行業的水平是多少？

I guess you have this on page 9 of the presentation which is on the Web.

我想您在 Web 上的演示文稿的第 9 頁上有這個。

We have made an estimation which is about 426 tools, lithography, semiconductor lithography tools, for the total year 2008.

我們估算了2008年全年大約有426個工具，光刻，半導體光刻工具。

On a unit basis, your market share should still be above 50%?

按單位計算，你的市場份額應該還在50%以上吧？

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

We have been, I think, in the 45-ish% range historically.

我認為，從歷史上看，我們一直在 45-ish% 的範圍內。

And it's not getting better because of the price tag of the 1900.

由於 1900 的價格標籤，它並沒有變得更好。

So I think you should for your formatting probably keep about 45-ish% of the 426.

所以我認為你應該為你的格式保留 426 的大約 45-ish%。

But of course our ASP level is growing.

但當然我們的 ASP 水平正在增長。

And a quick calculation will tell you that in order to reach our current assessment of the total year, we would need to have 45-ish% of those 426 multiplied by a good average ASP, and we do expect to have.

快速計算會告訴您，為了達到我們目前對全年的評估，我們需要將這 426 個中的 45-ish% 乘以一個良好的平均 ASP，我們確實期望有。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Nicole, maybe we can take one more call.

妮可，也許我們可以再接一個電話。

Janardan Menon, Dresdner Kleinwort.

Janardan Menon，Dresdner Kleinwort。

I just want to dig into the trimming of manufacturing expenses that you're doing, which is -- what impact will that have on your gross margins?

我只想深入了解您正在削減的製造費用，這對您的毛利率有何影響？

If your volumes stay at this level in the second half of the year, will you be able to exceed the 40% gross margin?

如果下半年你的銷量保持在這個水平，你能超過40%的毛利率嗎？

And if your volumes in the third quarter go down to 32 tools, or something in that range, will that enable you to keep your gross margins at about 40% in that case?

如果您在第三季度的數量下降到 32 種工具，或者在這個範圍內，那麼在這種情況下，您是否能夠將毛利率保持在 40% 左右？

Janardan, I will answer your question only if that allows you to change from bear to bull.

Janardan，只有在允許您從熊轉牛的情況下，我才會回答您的問題。

I'm trying, but your share price isn't coming down, it's going up.

我正在嘗試，但你的股價沒有下降，而是上升了。

What can I do?

我能做些什麼？

Because you leave me hope, I will answer.

因為你留給我希望，我會回答。

It is difficult to be scientific at this moment because it depends what the exact range of the revenue is.

目前很難科學，因為這取決於收入的確切範圍。

When we announce, of course, that we are trimming G&A and manufacturing costs, this is exactly to your point, to try to hit our famous 40% gross margin target, which has been what I said we're managing the Company on.

當然，當我們宣布我們正在削減 G&A 和製造成本時，這正是你的意思，試圖達到我們著名的 40% 毛利率目標，這就是我所說的我們管理公司的目標。

I may lie a bit, and we may be around 38.5, 39 or so, if we are fairly low on the sales level, and we will be above if we are back above 900.

我可能有點撒謊，如果我們的銷售水平相當低，我們可能會在 38.5、39 左右，如果我們回到 900 以上，我們就會高於。

I don't want to be specific.

我不想具體。

I think what I want to clarify, however, is we are now a bit smarter than we ever were in variability.

然而，我想我想澄清的是，我們現在在可變性方面比以往任何時候都更加聰明。

So we can keep our gross margin within the range, I would say, that you will probably consider acceptable.

因此，我們可以將毛利率保持在您可能認為可以接受的範圍內。

We voluntarily will lose a bit of money by continuing the R&D effort, as we said.

正如我們所說，我們會自願通過繼續研發努力而損失一些錢。

So we could have scaled it, but we don't, because we think this -- we think at this moment that we don't need to do so, because the down side is not significant, and at this moment limited.

所以我們本可以擴展它，但我們沒有，因為我們認為這一點——我們認為目前我們不需要這樣做，因為不利方面並不重要，而且目前是有限的。

So I don't know if I answered your question.

所以我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。

But, yes; we are going to try to fight to be around that 40%.

但是，是的;我們將努力爭取達到 40% 左右。

But please accept that if the top-line is significantly under 800-ish, we will probably be a bit lower than 40%.

但請接受，如果頂線明顯低於 800 左右，我們可能會略低於 40%。

A quick follow-up if I might.

如果可能的話，快速跟進。

On your 45 nanometer flash memory assumptions, I would assume that much of your shipments of immersion tools in the last two quarters have been of the 1900 to NAND Flash companies.

在你的 45 納米閃存假設中，我假設你在過去兩個季度的大部分浸入式工具出貨量都是 1900 到 NAND 閃存公司。

I'm just wondering why is it that they can't use those tools, which they have been using at the low 50 nanometer level, at 45 nanometer, and why they would need to buy more tools effectively?

我只是想知道為什麼他們不能使用那些他們一直在低 50 納米級、45 納米級使用的工具，以及為什麼他們需要有效地購買更多工具？

Or is it that they have capacity expansion plans, which is warranting that additional tool purchase?

或者他們是否有容量擴展計劃，這需要購買額外的工具？

Yes and yes.

是的，是的。

It is in spite of the fact that in particular you are saying that Flash [is not so great a business], but they do have a growth rate of some sort, which is not as great as it used to be.

儘管你特別說的是 Flash [不是很好的業務]，但它們確實有某種增長率，不像過去那麼好。

It used to be 50% unit growth, etcetera.

它曾經是 50% 的單位增長，等等。

I think now the industry is all talking about 30, 25, (multiple speakers).

我認為現在業界都在談論 30、25、（多個揚聲器）。

On the 20, 25% range, you still need some capacity.

在 20、25% 的範圍內，您仍然需要一些容量。

So they need it.

所以他們需要它。

Secondly, you do have multiple products.

其次，您確實有多種產品。

So, you are doing -- and I don't remember the exact integration levels.

所以，你正在做——我不記得確切的集成級別。

But on 55, they are going to continue producing for another two years or something, because that is the die size and the die integration that is current in production.

但是在 55，他們將繼續生產兩年左右，因為這是目前生產中的芯片尺寸和芯片集成。

They are not stopping this, and they are not converting everything to 45.

他們並沒有阻止這一點，也沒有將所有內容都轉換為 45。

They are converting -- they're not even converting.

他們正在轉變——他們甚至沒有轉變。

They are putting on 45 new designs.

他們推出了 45 種新設計。

So the old designs (inaudible) they have been designed in some phones and some cars and some whatever it is, and you can imagine a guy who has done a design with an application (inaudible) is not going to change [this now].

因此，舊設計（聽不清）已經在一些手機和一些汽車以及其他任何東西中設計，你可以想像一個用應用程序（聽不清）完成設計的人不會改變[現在]。

So they're going to have a lifetime of X.

所以他們將擁有 X 的一生。

And during that lifetime, those companies will have to continue delivering.

在那一生中，這些公司將不得不繼續交付。

In other terms, these 55 or 65 will remain in production for one, two, three years, or so, and then convert only later.

換句話說，這 55 或 65 將繼續生產一年、兩年、三年左右，然後才進行轉換。

In the meantime, you need 45 capacity.

同時，您需要 45 個容量。

On top of that, in addition to what Eric said, if you talk about 45 nanometer nodes, you could say that's your 1700.

最重要的是，除了 Eric 所說的，如果你談論 45 納米節點，你可以說那是你的 1700。

So why would they need to buy 1900s if they have 1700s?

那麼，如果他們有 1700，為什麼還要購買 1900？

[Why should you do that]?

[你為什麼要那樣做]？

On top of what Eric said is that many of those customers have -- their true node is between 40 and 43, which actually means if you have a 45 nanometer node-capable tool, for instance, a 1.2 or 1.3 NA tool, that would really stretch the process window.

Eric 所說的最重要的是，其中許多客戶擁有——他們的真實節點在 40 到 43 之間，這實際上意味著如果你有一個支持 45 納米節點的工具，例如，一個 1.2 或 1.3 NA 工具，那將真正延長工藝窗口。

So if you have the 1.35 NA 1900 would bring you largely right within the process window, and that has a direct impact on, for instance, the output at yield.

因此，如果您有 1.35 NA，1900 將在很大程度上使您處於工藝窗口內，並且這對產量有直接影響，例如，產量。

That is the reason why if you are stretching, which is (inaudible) the flash makers do, they have the most aggressive nodes between 40 and 43, that's why they need the 1900 to be -- to basically have the yield to be profitable.

這就是為什麼如果你正在拉伸，這是（聽不清）閃存製造商所做的，他們在 40 到 43 之間擁有最激進的節點，這就是為什麼他們需要 1900 - 基本上有收益才能盈利。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

At this point I'd like to thank, on behalf of ASML, everybody for joining our call.

在這一點上，我要代表 ASML 感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

Nicole, if you could formally close this out, I'd appreciate it.

妮可，如果你能正式結束這件事，我將不勝感激。

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2008 first-quarter results conference call.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2008 第一季度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating, and you may disconnect your line now.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開您的線路。