艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2008 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Peter will start with a summary of our financial results and then Eric will then talk more about the market, the measures that we're taking to deal with the economic downturn and our technology roadmap.

Peter 將首先總結我們的財務業績，然後 Eric 將更多地談論市場、我們為應對經濟衰退而採取的措施以及我們的技術路線圖。

Peter can I ask you to start?

彼得，我可以請你開始嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, like I said, we're first going to start with the business summary.

是的，就像我說的，我們首先要從業務摘要開始。

If you refer to the presentation that's on the web, that's more to the back of the presentation.

如果您參考網絡上的演示文稿，那更多是在演示文稿的後面。

So [business] summary first.

所以[業務]先總結一下。

Just a brief summary of the Q4 results.

只是對第四季度結果的簡要總結。

Net sales just under EUR500 million.

淨銷售額略低於 5 億歐元。

We shipped 25 systems, system value was around EUR380 million.

我們交付了 25 個系統，系統價值約為 3.8 億歐元。

Average selling price EUR20.4 million, still a lot of new technology immersion systems shipped.

平均售價為 2040 萬歐元，仍有大量新技術浸入式系統出貨。

Gross margin was 35.5%.

毛利率為 35.5%。

We guided at the end of Q3 for a higher sales number in Q4, around 36% gross margin, so gross margin actually is quite good for a level of EUR490 million of sales.

我們在第三季度末指導第四季度的銷售數字更高，毛利率約為 36%，因此毛利率實際上相當不錯，達到 4.9 億歐元的銷售額水平。

But we took a restructuring charge in the fourth quarter which brought the gross margin down to 8%.

但我們在第四季度進行了重組，使毛利率降至 8%。

The operating margins, before restructuring, were about 1% and were minus 27% clearly after the restructuring.

重組前的營業利潤率約為 1%，重組後明顯為負 27%。

We shipped, like I said, 11 immersion systems out of the 25 systems.

正如我所說，我們運送了 25 個系統中的 11 個沉浸式系統。

We booked a low number of systems, which is understandable.

我們預訂的系統數量很少，這是可以理解的。

Customers are really in a wait and see mode.

客戶真的處於觀望狀態。

You could say it's an order freeze at this particular moment.

你可以說這是在這個特定時刻的訂單凍結。

Customers really want to assess the impact of the economic crisis, first, before they determine what they want to do going forward and that means that we are in a period of a standstill if a -- I would say virtual order freeze for the time being.

客戶真的想評估經濟危機的影響，首先，在他們決定下一步要做什麼之前，這意味著我們處於停滯期，如果——我會說暫時凍結虛擬訂單.

And it means we only booked 13 systems with EUR127 million value.

這意味著我們只預訂了價值 1.27 億歐元的 13 個系統。

So, backlog stood at around EUR750 million, just over 41 systems.

因此，積壓訂單約為 7.5 億歐元，僅超過 41 個系統。

For the total year, sales just came out just below EUR3 billion, which is between 21% and 22% decline as compared to 2007.

全年銷售額略低於 30 億歐元，與 2007 年相比下降了 21% 至 22%。

At the end of, I think it was the Q2 results, we guided that sales could be down 10% to a maximum of 20%.

最後，我認為是第二季度的結果，我們指導銷售額可能下降 10%，最多下降 20%。

Now we earned just above 20%, which under the circumstances looking at the steep decline that we saw in the fourth quarter, is still reasonably good.

現在我們的收益略高於 20%，在考慮到我們在第四季度看到的急劇下滑的情況下，這仍然相當不錯。

So what did we sell in Q4?

那麼我們在第四季度銷售了什麼？

If we look at the slide that shows the breakdown of sales in Q4, the technology was clearly leading in this particular quarter.

如果我們看一下顯示第四季度銷售明細的幻燈片，該技術在這個特定季度顯然處於領先地位。

73% of our sales were for immersion tools and we shipped largely to IDMs, and those are integrated device manufacturers, or you could say logic makers.

我們 73% 的銷售額用於浸入式工具，我們主要向 IDM 發貨，這些是集成設備製造商，或者你可以說是邏輯製造商。

Makers of logic chips.

邏輯芯片製造商。

Memory was only 21% and for those people who follow us closely, that's been a long time since memory is 20% of our sales.

內存僅為 21%，對於那些密切關注我們的人來說，內存占我們銷售額的 20% 已經很久了。

As a matter of fact, over the last couple of years, I cannot remember that happening.

事實上，在過去的幾年裡，我不記得發生過這樣的事情。

So it is also a reflection of what Eric will talk about later, that our memory customers have virtually stopped adding any capacity.

所以這也反映了 Eric 稍後會談到的內容，我們的內存客戶實際上已經停止增加任何容量。

[That is a matter of fact] of taking capacity out.

[這是一個事實] 取消產能。

So capacity reduction in the DRAM industry is clearly happening and that what you see in the fourth quarter, the shipment to the memory customer, is a clear reflection of that.

因此，DRAM 行業的產能明顯減少，你在第四季度看到的內存客戶出貨量清楚地反映了這一點。

Now region wise, it's very easily spread -- evenly spread, I cannot remember a pie chart like this, to be very honest where Korea, Taiwan, Europe, USA and Japan all are within a few percentage points of what we shipped.

現在就地區而言，它很容易傳播——均勻傳播，我不記得有這樣的餅圖，老實說，韓國、台灣、歐洲、美國和日本都在我們出貨量的幾個百分點之內。

So actually throughout the whole world, Japan at 18% I think is a record.

所以實際上在全世界，日本 18% 我認為是一個記錄。

The consolidated statement of operations for the full year, like I said, just under EUR3 billion in sales.

正如我所說，全年的合併經營報表銷售額略低於 30 億歐元。

The gross margin was 34.4%, but there was a EUR135 million restructuring charge in there which took us to this level.

毛利率為 34.4%，但其中有 1.35 億歐元的重組費用使我們達到了這個水平。

R&D cost was slightly up from last year, which is a result of our continued focus on three most important R&D projects that we have which is immersion today.

研發成本比去年略有上升，這是由於我們繼續專注於我們今天沉浸的三個最重要的研發項目。

We have to defend our market position and we have the best technology out there.

我們必須捍衛我們的市場地位，我們擁有最好的技術。

And the second one is double patterning, which is going to be the technology that our customers need for the next two years.

第二個是雙圖案，這將是我們的客戶未來兩年需要的技術。

And EUV, extreme ultra violet light that we're going to use.

還有 EUV，我們將要使用的極紫外光。

Those tools will actually support our customers in their production from 2012 onwards.

從 2012 年開始，這些工具將實際支持我們客戶的生產。

So we keep investing in the future of this Company.

因此，我們繼續投資於這家公司的未來。

And yes, you have seen over the last few quarters that R&D is coming down somewhat which is a result of the efficiency measures that we have taken, but we're not taking any cuts on our core R&D programs.

是的，在過去的幾個季度裡，你已經看到研發有所下降，這是我們採取的效率措施的結果，但我們並沒有削減我們的核心研發計劃。

On SG&A, it went down on an annual basis from EUR226 million to EUR213 million.

在 SG&A 方面，它每年從 2.26 億歐元下降到 2.13 億歐元。

That doesn't look like a big decrease, but the decrease really is shown in the last quarter.

這看起來不像是一個很大的下降，但下降確實在上個季度顯示出來。

As of the first quarter 2009, we've taken EUR50 million out of our cost base.

截至 2009 年第一季度，我們已經從成本基礎中削減了 5000 萬歐元。

That's not only R&D and SG&A, that's also the cost of goods.

這不僅是研發和 SG&A，也是商品成本。

So that's EUR50 million from a level of EUR330 million at the end of Q2, 2008 to EUR280 million in the first quarter 2009.

所以這是 5000 萬歐元，從 2008 年第二季度末的 3.3 億歐元增加到 2009 年第一季度的 2.8 億歐元。

That's EUR200 million on an annual basis, and that is basically spread evenly across all cost line items in the income statement of the Company.

這是每年 2 億歐元，基本上平均分佈在公司損益表中的所有成本項目中。

Now we enter the year still with 11% net income.

現在我們以 11% 的淨收入進入這一年。

Key financial trends, which is the slide that shows the quarterly development of our sales and our financial numbers, clearly you can see what happened to the industry.

主要財務趨勢，即顯示我們銷售和財務數據的季度發展情況的幻燈片，您可以清楚地看到該行業發生了什麼。

In Q4, 2007 we were EUR955 million, that was last year, of sales went down to EUR919 million, EUR844 million, dropping to EUR696 million and then finally ending up in the fourth quarter just below EUR500 million.

2007 年第四季度，我們的銷售額為 9.55 億歐元，也就是去年，銷售額下降到 9.19 億歐元、8.44 億歐元、下降到 6.96 億歐元，最後在第四季度結束時略低於 5 億歐元。

So that's 50% of your sales, you can say, gone in one year time, clearly the reflection of the economic crisis that we are in.

所以你可以說，你的銷售額的 50% 在一年內消失了，這清楚地反映了我們所處的經濟危機。

R&D, like I said, is remarkably stable, but that is a particular strategic decision that we have taken.

正如我所說，研發非常穩定，但這是我們做出的一項特殊戰略決策。

SG&A, that goes down further in the first quarter.

SG&A，第一季度進一步下降。

You see you can read it in the press release, we go down to a level of EUR44 million and that is a reflection of the cost cutting that we have done, especially in the last six months.

你看你可以在新聞稿中看到它，我們下降到 4400 萬歐元的水平，這反映了我們所做的成本削減，尤其是在過去六個月中。

The average selling price of the systems, that's the pre-last line, which is ASP new systems, went up from EUR16 million to just above EUR20 million in the second half of this year, which is a clear evidence of the fact that what our customers need are leading edge tools.

系統的平均售價，也就是 ASP 新系統的最後一行，在今年下半年從 1600 萬歐元上升到略高於 2000 萬歐元，這清楚地證明了我們的客戶需要的是領先的工具。

Our leading edge tools are the most expensive tools that we have.

我們的前沿工具是我們擁有的最昂貴的工具。

The most expensive tool is EUR30 million, and that is what we have shipped, especially in the last part of this year.

最昂貴的工具是 3000 萬歐元，這是我們已經發貨的，尤其是在今年下半年。

That's what our customers needed.

這就是我們的客戶所需要的。

Why did they need that?

他們為什麼需要那個？

They need the leading edge tools to make chips actually smaller, to make the feature sizes in those chips smaller and it means a cost reduction.

他們需要領先的工具來使芯片實際上更小，使這些芯片中的特徵尺寸更小，這意味著成本降低。

And when you need a cost reduction, you need a cost reduction when your prices are under pressure, which is basically currently the case.

當你需要降低成本時，當你的價格受到壓力時，你需要降低成本，目前基本上就是這樣。

And it's also why we believe that, somewhere along in this year, customers will need to come back and say, listen the market is tough, chip prices are going down, we need to cut costs.

這也是為什麼我們相信，在今年的某個時候，客戶需要回來說，市場很艱難，芯片價格正在下降，我們需要削減成本。

And how you cut costs, you cut costs by buying the latest and greatest ASML tools.

以及如何削減成本，通過購買最新最好的 ASML 工具來削減成本。

Cash flow, cash flow for the fourth quarter clearly impacted, like I said, net income of EUR88 million, but we had the impairment charges of EUR107 million.

現金流，第四季度的現金流明顯受到影響，就像我說的那樣，淨收入為 8800 萬歐元，但我們有 1.07 億歐元的減值費用。

Depreciation and amortization, other non-cash items, that, plus the decision that we took to keep paying our supply base, our suppliers have provided us with inventory that eventually got pushed out by our customers, so we got stuck with it, you could say.

折舊和攤銷，其他非現金項目，加上我們決定繼續支付我們的供應基礎，我們的供應商為我們提供了最終被我們的客戶推出的庫存，所以我們堅持下去，你可以說。

But we did pay our suppliers, we think it's very important, if you're 90% of your production depending on the supply chain, that you keep paying your suppliers.

但我們確實向我們的供應商付款，我們認為這非常重要，如果你的 90% 的生產取決於供應鏈，那麼你要繼續向供應商付款。

The health of the supply chain is very important to us.

供應鏈的健康對我們非常重要。

So, we did do that, we didn't offload that pressure on to the suppliers.

所以，我們確實這樣做了，我們沒有把壓力轉嫁給供應商。

We had very much a back-end loaded quarter.

我們有一個非常後端加載的季度。

So it meant that a lot of the shipments were in December, which meant that those receivables could not be collected before the end of the year.

所以這意味著很多貨物是在 12 月發貨的，這意味著這些應收賬款無法在年底前收回。

We kept investing in the EUV factory.

我們一直在投資 EUV 工廠。

If you look outside that window you see the building cranes, so that means the EUV factory, which is our future, will be finished by the middle of next year, but still we're paying for that.

如果你往窗外看，你會看到建築起重機，這意味著我們未來的 EUV 工廠將在明年年中完工，但我們仍在為此付出代價。

And we made some tax payments for the 2007 final tax assessment.

我們為 2007 年的最終稅收評估繳納了一些稅款。

So all-in-all we used EUR200 million of cash in the fourth quarter which clearly is not going to repeat itself.

因此，總而言之，我們在第四季度使用了 2 億歐元的現金，這顯然不會重演。

Going forward, with the level of sales that we're currently seeing for the first two quarters, all those sales, service sales and normal shipments, can basically be done out of inventory.

展望未來，根據我們目前看到的前兩個季度的銷售水平，所有這些銷售、服務銷售和正常發貨基本上都可以用庫存完成。

So we don't need to buy inventory.

所以我們不需要購買存貨。

That means that, as well as the accounts receivable balance, as a big part of the inventory, will be translated into cash for the first half of this year, which is also the reason why we put in the press release that we're going to be cash positive in the first six months.

這意味著，以及應收賬款餘額，作為存貨的很大一部分，將在今年上半年轉化為現金，這也是我們在新聞稿中發布我們將要進行的原因前六個月現金為正。

Now why do I talk a lot about cash, because when there is no business, there is no market, there is no profit.

現在我為什麼要大談現金，因為沒有生意，就沒有市場，就沒有利潤。

People focus on cash and from that point of view we feel highly confident and the Company's very well financed, we have EUR1.1 billion in cash by the end of the year.

人們關注現金，從這個角度來看，我們感到非常有信心，而且公司的資金非常充足，到年底我們有 11 億歐元的現金。

And we remain confident in our ability to keep generating cash and that's why we say we stay within our bandwidth of EUR1 billion to EUR1.5 billion.

我們仍然對我們繼續產生現金的能力充滿信心，這就是為什麼我們說我們保持在 10 億至 15 億歐元的帶寬範圍內。

And we have the means to actually do that, like I said, we have a significant inventory balance and we can ship out of that.

我們有辦法做到這一點，就像我說的那樣，我們有大量的庫存餘額，我們可以從中發貨。

Backlog, brief, [so it's a] backlog EUR0.75 billion, 40 systems, about EUR300 million shippable in the first six months.

積壓，簡短，[所以這是] 積壓 7.5 億歐元，40 個系統，前六個月可交付約 3 億歐元。

And the rest shippable in the second half of the year.

其餘的可在下半年發貨。

Very clearly also big names in there, like our big memory customers that told us, no we don't need your tools or at least very, very few of your tools in the first six months, but we need them in the second half of the year.

很明顯那裡也有大牌，比如我們的大內存客戶告訴我們，不，我們不需要你的工具，或者至少在前六個月不需要你的工具，但在下半年我們需要它們那一年。

This is then a graphical representation of that.

這是它的圖形表示。

The backlog in value and in litho units, clearly showing the decline in the backlog, which is a reflection of where we are in terms of the industry.

價值和光刻單位的積壓，清楚地顯示了積壓的下降，這反映了我們在行業中所處的位置。

In value, if you look at the 73% immersion, ArF dry is in there which is a relatively high percentage.

就價值而言，如果你看一下 73% 的浸入率，ArF 干法在其中，這是一個相對較高的百分比。

ArF dry means -- that's leading edge, but it's not used for memory production, it's largely used for logic chips.

ArF 干法意味著 - 這是領先優勢，但它不用於內存生產，它主要用於邏輯芯片。

And that's why you also see that what we call IDM, which is the integrated device manufacturers, those are logic chip makers, has a relatively high percentage of the backlog, if you would compare that to the last two or three years.

這就是為什麼你也看到我們所說的 IDM，即集成設備製造商，邏輯芯片製造商，如果你將其與過去兩三年進行比較，積壓的比例相對較高。

So memory is going down, and we had memory over in the course of this year went down from two-thirds, close to 70%, to just under 50%.

所以內存在下降，在今年的過程中，我們的內存從接近 70% 的三分之二下降到略低於 50%。

And IDM, the logic makers, they became a bigger relative part of the backlog.

而邏輯製造商 IDM，他們成為積壓訂單中更大的相對部分。

And where are those customers, close to 40% in the US, 20% in Japan, that just shows important Japan has been for us as a Company over the last couple of years.

這些客戶在哪裡，接近 40% 在美國，20% 在日本，這表明過去幾年日本對我們公司來說很重要。

Finally, we have seen a profitable year, although the profit halved, as compared to 2007, with just over EUR300 million of net profit.

最後，我們看到了盈利的一年，儘管與 2007 年相比利潤減半，淨利潤略高於 3 億歐元。

We are a cash generative Company.

我們是一家現金生成公司。

We do not have cash issues, so we are proposing a dividend -- a dividend to the shareholders of EUR0.20, which is EUR0.05 down from last year, but in terms of payout percentage, we talked about that in our general meeting of shareholders last year, that we are focusing on a payout of around 20%.

我們沒有現金問題，所以我們提議派發股息——向股東派發 0.20 歐元的股息，比去年減少 0.05 歐元，但就派息百分比而言，我們在股東大會上談到了這一點去年的股東表示，我們專注於 20% 左右的派息。

The payout ratio goes up from 17% to 27%.

派息率從 17% 上升到 27%。

It's a balanced [position], it does reflect the economic and industry environment clearly, net profit halved, and it also reflects the interest of all stakeholders.

這是一個平衡的[位置]，它確實清楚地反映了經濟和行業環境，淨利潤減半，也反映了所有利益相關者的利益。

Which actually means that, whether you're a supplier, or you're an employee, or you're a shareholder, we all feel somewhat the effects of the economic crisis.

這實際上意味著，無論你是供應商、員工還是股東，我們都多少感受到了經濟危機的影響。

This was my part of the presentation and I probably stole a bit of your thunder Eric by talking about some references to customers and trends.

這是我演示的一部分，我可能通過談論一些對客戶和趨勢的參考來搶了你的風頭 Eric。

But I'm pretty sure you can entertain our audience with some more information.

但我很確定您可以通過更多信息來娛樂我們的觀眾。

Enough thunder in to all this.

這一切的雷聲已經夠大了。

Thank you Peter.

謝謝彼得。

But I don't think I'm going to hide behind the podium.

但我不認為我會躲在講台後面。

It's not because I'm tiny, it's because you guys in Holland are giants or something.

不是因為我個子小，而是因為你們荷蘭人都是巨人之類的。

So yes, for the press, I am a very tall French guy.

所以是的，對於媒體來說，我是一個很高的法國人。

So on this, in fact and after Peter's bad news, I'm going to probably give you a hint about potential good news.

所以關於這一點，事實上，在彼得的壞消息之後，我可能會給你一個關於潛在好消息的提示。

So let me start however from the low side of the story.

因此，讓我從故事的低端開始。

The reason that we have reduced our sales expectation is because the end customer demand, that is the semiconductor industry, or semiconductor demand, is dropping.

我們降低銷售預期的原因是因為終端客戶需求，即半導體行業或半導體需求正在下降。

And the curve shows in fact how dramatic that is.

事實上，曲線顯示了它的戲劇性。

I don't think in the history we've ever seen a dramatic reduction of numbers of units of semiconductors sold in the world.

我認為在歷史上我們從未見過世界上銷售的半導體單位數量急劇減少。

In a period of three months, we went from a gross, compared to last year, of about 8% to, as you can see, a reduction of 4%.

在三個月的時間裡，與去年相比，我們的毛利率約為 8%，如您所見，減少了 4%。

So the total year will not be so bad.

所以總的一年不會那麼糟糕。

You can see from the chart that the numbers of units of semiconductor will grow by 6%.

從圖表中可以看出，半導體的單位數量將增長 6%。

But if you only look at the fourth quarter, the drop has been extremely southern and very large.

但如果你只看第四季度，下降幅度非常大。

However, if there is anything positive with statistics about our end demand is the fact that, compared to the past or the last very large recession that some of you may remember in the 2001 timeframe, there was excess in the industry.

然而，如果關於我們最終需求的統計數據有任何積極意義的話，那就是，與過去或你們中的一些人可能記得的 2001 年時間框架內的上一次非常大的衰退相比，該行業存在過剩。

There was excess capacity, certain numbers of fads basically have been built on the dream of Internet, on Y2K etc.

產能過剩，某些時尚基本上建立在互聯網夢想、千年蟲等問題上。

So a lot of excess capacity and a lot of excess inventory.

所以很多產能過剩和庫存過剩。

And the good news is, although the demand has dropped tremendously and very, very quickly, the amount of excess in this industry is in fact very low.

好消息是，雖然需求下降得非常非常快，但這個行業的過剩量實際上非常低。

I will talk to you about the capacity soon.

我很快就會和你談談容量。

But you can see from this chart that although the inventory of chips, which is in the shadow area, is growing, if you divide it by the average demand, you will see that the number is still remaining reasonably low compared to last recession.

但是你可以從這個圖表中看到，雖然位於陰影區域的芯片庫存在增長，但如果你將它除以平均需求，你會發現與上次經濟衰退相比，這個數字仍然保持在相當低的水平。

So it's a very important point.

所以這是非常重要的一點。

That is obviously the demand -- the end demand has dropped tremendously.

這顯然是需求——最終需求大幅下降。

But there is no excess created, which means if the demand comes back, then you will have a very quick correction in the need for more capacity.

但是沒有創造過剩，這意味著如果需求恢復，那麼您將對更多容量的需求進行非常快速的修正。

You would not have had in 2001 a very long time before capacity of lithography machine is purchased.

在 2001 年購買光刻機產能之前不會有很長時間。

That's one of the good news.

這是好消息之一。

If you try look at the statistics by segments, and as you know we have now two types or three types of segments in front of us, our customers., either the flash type segment, or the DRAM segment, or the logic segment, you will see that the three of them are in a difficult situation.

如果您嘗試按段查看統計數據，正如您所知，我們現在有兩種類型或三種類型的段擺在我們面前，我們的客戶，閃存類型段、DRAM 段或邏輯段，您便見三人為難。

On the three segments demand has dropped.

對這三個細分市場的需求有所下降。

But you will see that there are two or three good signs.

但是你會看到有兩三個好兆頭。

If you look at the memory segment, you are starting to see some price increase in the end demand.

如果你看一下內存部分，你會開始看到終端需求的價格有所上漲。

And that means that, although the demand has dropped, something has happened that firms up the market.

這意味著，儘管需求下降了，但市場上發生了一些事情。

And what has happened is in fact that our customers have retired capacity of factories, in fact capacities of [lithography too], significantly.

事實上，我們的客戶已經淘汰了工廠的產能，實際上 [光刻] 的產能也顯著減少。

You can see here, we estimate that in the NAND business, our customers have reduced capacity by about 20%, by basically either dumping machines, old machines, 200mm wafer-type machines, and those will not come back in the business.

你可以看到這裡，我們估計在NAND業務中，我們的客戶已經減少了大約20％的產能，基本上是傾倒機，舊機，200mm晶圓型機，這些不會再回來了。

Or they have made transition to smarter, more aggressive technology which are good because they allow shrink and better cost, but are using a lot of machinery.

或者他們已經過渡到更智能、更積極的技術，這些技術很好，因為它們允許收縮和更好的成本，但正在使用大量機器。

So in other terms, used to have one machine to do a certain number of wafers per day, say 3,000, now they use two machines for 3,000 wafers, and they have done that bit.

所以換句話說，過去每天用一台機器做一定數量的晶圓，比如 3,000，現在他們用兩台機器做 3,000 個晶圓，他們已經做到了這一點。

And these two activities have allowed in fact the total microeconomic capacity numbers in the DRAM, in the flash business, to have shrunk by 20%.

事實上，這兩項活動使閃存業務中 DRAM 的微觀經濟總量縮水了 20%。

So now the demand has shrunk by 4%, as I said, and this is a capacity decrease by 20%.

所以現在需求減少了 4%，就像我說的，產能減少了 20%。

You now start to understand why prices are starting to go up in spite of the fact that there is a recession of units.

你現在開始明白為什麼儘管單位數量下降，但價格卻開始上漲。

The flash is about 20% down in terms of capacity.

閃存的容量下降了約 20%。

DRAM is even better, 30% down in our estimate.

DRAM 甚至更好，在我們的估計中降低了 30%。

So therefore you can see that we're not optimistic at all.

因此，您可以看到我們一點都不樂觀。

In fact we cannot call when the numbers of units of semiconductor will grow again.

事實上，我們無法預測半導體的單位數量何時會再次增長。

But we're starting to see very positive news as to whether our customers investment -- and that also shows that this type of investment that they are doing now is very low, is non-sustainable for the future.

但是我們開始看到關於我們的客戶是否投資的非常積極的消息——這也表明他們現在所做的這種投資非常低，在未來是不可持續的。

What do we do during these difficult times?

在這些困難時期我們做什麼？

Well in fact this four-point strategy is what we think is in fact a winning strategy for the Company and a best way to use opportunistically the situation.

事實上，我們認為這四點戰略實際上是公司的製勝戰略，也是機會主義利用這種情況的最佳方式。

So first of all very important in the business of this nature, we do not touch our R&D programs.

因此，首先在這種性質的業務中非常重要的是，我們不觸及我們的研發計劃。

You will have seen that Peter has stolen certain numbers of millions out of our investment, but this is really efficiency improvements; better usage of our machinery and R&D etc.

你會看到彼得從我們的投資中偷走了數百萬美元，但這確實是效率的提高；更好地利用我們的機器和研發等。

But it is no impact on the strategic projects and no impact on the dates of delivery of those strategic projects.

但這對戰略項目沒有影響，對這些戰略項目的交付日期沒有影響。

And I will go into more details on that later.

我稍後會詳細介紹。

Second is, we want to be sure we have enough capacity when the demand comes back.

其次，我們要確保在需求恢復時我們有足夠的產能。

Now I told you that, as was with the last recession, we do not expect a very slow pick-up.

現在我告訴你，就像上次衰退一樣，我們預計經濟復甦不會非常緩慢。

We expect the possibility of a very fast pick-up because again of the low investment in the system and low excess capacity.

我們預計有可能會非常快速地回升，因為系統投資低，產能過剩低。

So we have to be ready and therefore we have taken a decision to have enough capacity available for a fairly fast pick-up.

所以我們必須做好準備，因此我們決定有足夠的容量來快速提貨。

The second bit is -- the third bit is, however we're making significant losses, EUR88 million is a large number.

第二位是 - 第三位是，但是我們正在遭受重大損失，8800 萬歐元是一個很大的數字。

We are guiding for even a lower -- bigger loss for the first quarter.

我們指導第一季度的虧損甚至更低 - 更大。

But very important in this type of environment is to not lose cash.

但在這種環境中非常重要的是不要損失現金。

And we are successful in our restructuring effort and our management of the working capital to say that in the next few months, with very, very low level of sales, extremely low level of sales; about four times less than normal type activity, we're able to declare that we will be cash positive.

我們在重組工作和營運資金管理方面取得了成功，可以說在接下來的幾個月裡，銷售水平非常非常低，非常低的銷售水平；大約是正常類型活動的四倍，我們可以宣布我們將獲得現金。

So this also speaks a lot about our capability as a Company to manage the cycle.

因此，這也充分說明了我們作為一家公司管理週期的能力。

But I would say even more importantly, and this is where we think we are going to make value out of this recession, this recession for us translates also in a reduction of activity; activity to support customers; activity to build machines etc.

但我想說更重要的是，這就是我們認為我們將從這次衰退中創造價值的地方，這次衰退對我們來說也意味著活動的減少；支持客戶的活動；製造機器等的活動

We're using the bandwidths available to go and aggressively pursue an improved cost structure for the future.

我們正在使用可用的帶寬，積極尋求改進未來的成本結構。

So the idea is not only to reduce cost and restructure for the very short-term, and obviously we do this a bit to improve our cash generation, but it is also to think about the next generation cash structure that we should have for year 2010 and so on.

所以我們的想法不僅是在短期內降低成本和重組，顯然我們這樣做是為了提高我們的現金生成能力，而且還要考慮我們在 2010 年應該擁有的下一代現金結構等等。

And we believe by having the opportunity of this recession to think about efficiency, we can gain for the future.

我們相信，通過利用這次衰退的機會來思考效率，我們可以為未來獲益。

So in other terms, we used to say that our target for the future would be to reach about EUR5 billion of sales, and deliver a significant profit.

因此，換句話說，我們過去常說我們未來的目標是達到約 50 億歐元的銷售額，並實現可觀的利潤。

Now we're saying, we will reach EUR5 billion of sales, obviously this recession is a short-term impact, but in addition we will be more profitable than we think we would have been in the first place.

現在我們說，我們的銷售額將達到 50 億歐元，顯然這次經濟衰退是短期影響，但除此之外，我們的利潤將比我們最初想像的要多。

So let me get into excitement, or some of you may be excitement.

所以讓我開始興奮，或者你們中的一些人可能會興奮。

Who is in the financial sectors?

誰在金融領域？

You may not be excited; these are machine stuff.

你可能不興奮；這些是機器的東西。

And all the scientific guys here will be excited.

這裡所有的科學家都會很興奮。

We are doing pretty good activities in engineering.

我們在工程方面做得很好。

We are developing and will introduce this year, a new machine for the cost effective segment of our business; this is called the XT4 platform.

我們正在開發並將在今年推出一款新機器，用於我們業務的成本效益部分；這就是所謂的 XT4 平台。

We are introducing another platform called the NXT which is a high-end platform.

我們正在推出另一個名為 NXT 的平台，這是一個高端平台。

For the first time in our history, we are going to have two platforms; a low-end and a high-end.

在我們的歷史上，我們將第一次擁有兩個平台；低端和高端。

So it will increase our competitivity.

所以它會增加我們的競爭力。

And that new machine will be able to get into the new technologies called double patterning of our customers.

而那台新機器將能夠進入我們客戶的稱為雙重圖案的新技術。

We are also preparing the PAS 2010, 2011-type technology and in this industry, it is called the EUV Extreme UV, which allows nodes to shrink from -- probably the first node would be a 22 nanometer, to 12 nanometer or so.

我們還在準備 PAS 2010、2011 型技術，在這個行業中，它被稱為 EUV Extreme UV，它允許節點縮小——可能第一個節點是 22 納米，到 12 納米左右。

That ensures basically five to 10 years of activity beyond 2010.

這基本上確保了 2010 年之後的 5 到 10 年的活動。

But in addition to those three pieces of hardware, I remind you that we made an acquisition about two years ago now, a company in the US called Brion.

但除了這三件硬件之外，我提醒你，我們大約兩年前收購了一家名為 Brion 的美國公司。

And we used the know-how of Brion to start addressing the issue of optimizing the manufacturing environment and the design environment of our customers.

我們利用 Brion 的專業知識開始解決優化客戶製造環境和設計環境的問題。

So we used to do hardware and now we are helping in a software environment, a service environment, and we are nearer and nearer to develop certain numbers of exciting new products.

所以我們以前做硬件，現在我們在軟件環境、服務環境中提供幫助，我們越來越接近開發一定數量的令人興奮的新產品。

So let me very briefly show you the picture, the family picture, and we won't talk further about that.

因此，讓我非常簡要地向您展示這張照片，全家福，我們不會再談這個了。

But again the XT4, the NXT and the EUV machine ,and this has been absolutely drawn not to scale.

但是 XT4、NXT 和 EUV 機器，這絕對不是按比例繪製的。

The EUV machine is a significant monster and nobody will ask me, or I hope to have the question at the end, what's the ASP, the price, of one of those monsters?

EUV 機器是一個重要的怪物，沒有人會問我，或者我希望最後有一個問題，其中一個怪物的 ASP，價格是多少？

That is exciting.

這很令人興奮。

The holistic lithography, or the service and software support that I talked about, again is certain numbers of software service programs which we are now able to start selling to the market.

整體光刻，或我談到的服務和軟件支持，同樣是我們現在能夠開始向市場銷售的一定數量的軟件服務程序。

And this has value because first, it has money and margin, but also it enables the machines.

這具有價值，因為首先，它有資金和利潤，而且它還使機器成為可能。

So the more you make use of them, the more you want to use the latest machine.

因此，您使用它們的次數越多，就越想使用最新的機器。

So it has a leverage impact on the rest of our business.

因此，它對我們的其他業務產生了影響。

So now let me talk about the bad news in fact.

所以現在讓我談談事實上的壞消息。

Yes, we did reduce our cost structure which means we have a certain number of impact; some of it is on the human side, where we are proud of, is at this moment, we have been able to execute a significant cost [reduction] of about EUR50 million per quarter, EUR200 million per year, by exercising not yet to its maximum, our flexible structure.

是的，我們確實降低了成本結構，這意味著我們有一定的影響；其中一些是在人的方面，我們引以為豪的是，目前，我們已經能夠通過執行尚未達到的目標，實現每季度約 5000 萬歐元、每年 2 億歐元的顯著成本[減少]最大，我們靈活的結構。

You know we are in a cyclical industry, so for us we have to live with a structure which is flexible.

您知道我們處於週期性行業，因此對我們來說，我們必須適應靈活的結構。

In other terms, the possibility of saving EUR50 million per quarter without layoffs.

換句話說，在不裁員的情況下，每季度有可能節省 5000 萬歐元。

And at this moment we have reduced layoffs to a very small amount, mainly outside of Holland, and we have executed in Holland most of our reduction of flexibility in the workforce, that is temporary workers or use of contractors.

目前，我們已將裁員減少到非常小的數量，主要是在荷蘭以外的地區，我們在荷蘭執行了大部分減少勞動力靈活性的工作，即臨時工或使用承包商。

So we have been able to execute extremely fast and deep cost reduction using this model.

因此，我們已經能夠使用此模型執行極其快速和深入的成本削減。

We have taken therefore EUR138 million roughly for the different closures and restructuring and impairment, but we also, and this is the important message I gave at the beginning, during this recession we want to use this opportunity to think how to prolong or to make sure that this cost structure could be usable when the market picks up again.

因此，我們為不同的關閉、重組和減值大約花費了 1.38 億歐元，但我們也，這是我在開始時給出的重要信息，在這次經濟衰退期間，我們想利用這個機會思考如何延長或確保當市場再次回暖時，這種成本結構可以使用。

And so we expect a very large part of this EUR50 million savings to be continued well into 2010 when the market recovers.

因此，我們預計這 5000 萬歐元節省的很大一部分將持續到 2010 年市場復甦時。

Today again, and I think we are not going to talk about this further much because Peter has hinted this, our cash outflow has been bad in the fourth quarter, which is not abnormal when the demand drops immediately in a business of long lead time like ours, six to nine months.

又是今天，我認為我們不會進一步討論這個問題，因為彼得已經暗示了這一點，我們在第四季度的現金流出很糟糕，當需求立即下降時，對於像這樣的長交貨期業務，這並不異常我們的，六到九個月。

If the business drops you don't get revenue but you have to pay your suppliers, it's nothing special.

如果業務下滑，你得不到收入，但你必須向供應商付款，這沒什麼特別的。

But the good news is of course we are going to get the money back, which is why we announced that we are going to be cash positive in the next quarters.

但好消息當然是我們會收回這筆錢，這就是為什麼我們宣布我們將在接下來的幾個季度實現現金盈餘。

So that is obvious.

所以這是顯而易見的。

We expect, however, the next quarter to be extremely low and this is why also I said, this level of sales at about EUR180 million to EUR200 million is not sustainable for our customers.

然而，我們預計下一季度的銷售額會非常低，這就是為什麼我也說過，這種約 1.8 億至 2 億歐元的銷售額水平對我們的客戶來說是不可持續的。

Conclusion of these two statements about the business is, we are a strong Company with EUR1.1 billion cash, we have an additional standby facility of EUR500 million.

這兩份關於業務的聲明的結論是，我們是一家擁有 11 億歐元現金的強大公司，我們還有 5 億歐元的額外備用貸款。

We think we are going to be cash positive at the very low level of sales for the next month.

我們認為我們將在下個月的非常低的銷售水平上獲得現金。

So we are in a solid situation cash-wise, which again allows us to use this recession as an investment period, not as a period where we shut down or cut our wings.

因此，我們在現金方面處於穩健的狀況，這再次使我們能夠將這次衰退用作投資期，而不是我們關閉或削減翅膀的時期。

Outlook summary.

展望總結。

Again, EUR200 million.

同樣，2 億歐元。

Gross margin low because at this level of sales it's irrelevant I would say.

毛利率低，因為在這個銷售水平上，我會說它是無關緊要的。

Research and development, EUR117 million.

研發，1.17 億歐元。

Yes a bit of savings, but as I say, efficiency saving more than anything.

是的，有點節省，但正如我所說，節省效率比什麼都重要。

We used to be in the run rate of EUR125-ish million, so EUR117 million is lower, but not significantly lower.

我們過去的運行率為 1.25 億歐元左右，因此 1.17 億歐元較低，但不會顯著降低。

And SG&A significantly lower, we used to run the business at EUR57 million SG&A per quarter.

SG&A 顯著降低，我們過去每季度以 5700 萬歐元的 SG&A 經營業務。

EUR44 million is proof of the pudding of our capability to move down.

4400 萬歐元證明了我們向下移動的能力。

Our breakeven going down significantly, we -- last crisis, we were losing a significant amount of money at this level of sales.

我們的收支平衡大幅下降，我們 - 上次危機，我們在這個銷售水平上損失了大量資金。

I don't think you want to hear this again.

我認為你不想再聽到這個。

No -- the freeze of the market at this moment, we cannot predict when it's going to get better.

不——目前市場處於凍結狀態，我們無法預測何時會好轉。

We will be ready when it happens.

當它發生時，我們會做好準備。

We continue our investment.

我們繼續我們的投資。

We are not concerned about cash in the next few months and we are working -- we are leveraging this recession for an improved efficiency for the future.

我們不擔心未來幾個月的現金問題，我們正在努力——我們正在利用這次衰退來提高未來的效率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Right, thank you Eric, thank you Peter.

好的，謝謝 Eric，謝謝 Peter。

Eric mentioned the holistic litho vision.

埃里克提到了整體光刻願景。

There is actually a mini documentary available as of today on the website.

截至今天，網站上實際上有一部迷你紀錄片。

So those of you who are listening to this webcast, they can actually click on that little icon right now and enjoy that.

所以那些正在收聽此網絡廣播的人，他們現在實際上可以單擊那個小圖標並享受它。

But for here, I think we should open the Q&A.

但是對於這裡，我認為我們應該打開問答環節。

Does anyone have a first question?

有人有第一個問題嗎？

[Vincent Decker] is usually the first one.

[Vincent Decker] 通常是第一個。

What is the ASP of EUV machine?

EUV機器的ASP是多少？

Yes, well I'm fully obliged to ask.

是的，我完全有義務問。

What's the price?

價錢多少？

The answer is, very high, but it is good value.

答案是，很高，但是物有所值。

The ASP of an EUV machine will be in the order of magnitude of EUR55 million to EUR65 million.

EUV 機器的平均售價將在 5500 萬至 6500 萬歐元的數量級。

EUR55 million to EUR65 million?

5500 萬歐元到 6500 萬歐元？

Because the high ends now are EUR30 million?

因為高端現在是 3000 萬歐元？

So it's twice the price.

所以價格是原來的兩倍。

But quadruple the efficiency, roughly.

但大致是四倍的效率。

It must be then, yes, otherwise I wouldn't buy it.

一定是那時，是的，否則我不會買它。

Correct.

正確的。

I had a few other questions if I may, maybe a second answer too.

如果可以的話，我還有其他一些問題，也許還有第二個答案。

On top of my head because I have the notes in my head.

在我的頭頂上，因為我腦子裡有筆記。

One is, there's another company that recently was in the news again, it's called Mapper, and it more or less suggested that it's starting now and it's probably growing but it might be better to have a bigger parent company.

一個是，最近又有一家公司再次出現在新聞中，它叫做 Mapper，它或多或少表明它現在正在起步並且可能正在增長，但擁有更大的母公司可能會更好。

And who knows, maybe ASML would be in the market.

誰知道呢，也許 ASML 會上市。

Are you?

你是？

Well yes.

嗯，是。

In the business of lithography you have the mainstream lithography which is what we do, which is photon-based, that is light laser.

在光刻業務中，主流的光刻技術就是我們所做的，它是基於光子的，即光激光。

And you have the possibility also to expose circuits using other technologies.

您還可以使用其他技術來暴露電路。

Mapper is using electronic beams and other companies in the US are trying to use imprint; you print in fact the structures on the silicon.

Mapper 正在使用電子束，而美國的其他公司正在嘗試使用印記；您實際上在矽片上打印結構。

We are very interested by any other potential technology of course in this business, but we still believe that at this moment these two technologies, E-beam or imprint, are good for lab-type experiments or extremely low throughput type industry or activity.

當然，我們對這項業務中的任何其他潛在技術都非常感興趣，但我們仍然相信，目前這兩種技術，電子束或壓印，適用於實驗室類型的實驗或極低吞吐量類型的行業或活動。

So a very small market at this moment.

所以此時的市場非常小。

So I don't say that we will never be interested to get into small markets and therefore we'd work with Mapper, that's a possibility.

所以我並不是說我們永遠不會有興趣進入小市場，因此我們會與 Mapper 合作，這是有可能的。

But this is I would say another segment of business which at this moment we consider a bit small.

但這是我要說的另一部分業務，目前我們認為它有點小。

In particular, that this technology is not proven, which requires significant investment.

特別是，這項技術尚未得到證實，需要大量投資。

So a significant market with a market which is not a major market is of course a question mark for us.

因此，一個重要的市場和一個不是主要市場的市場對我們來說當然是一個問號。

However you know that we are an integrator-type company and we are very good at integrating different technologies.

但是你知道我們是一個集成商類型的公司，我們非常擅長整合不同的技術。

So if that technology become or proves to be much more interesting, in terms of market or in terms of capability, then we probably will be --

因此，如果該技術在市場或能力方面變得或被證明更有趣，那麼我們可能會 -

You [will] have to pay much more then for a company.

你[將]必須為一家公司支付更多的錢。

Exactly, we'd like to pay for good value.

確切地說，我們願意為良好的價值付出代價。

Okay.

好的。

Under the assumption that it becomes value.

在它成為價值的假設下。

Another question maybe.

也許是另一個問題。

I have the impression that EUV is coming somewhat late to the market.

我的印像是 EUV 進入市場有點晚。

It has some problems.

它有一些問題。

Do you see that too or --?

你也看到了還是——？

Well EUV -- the UV concept probably started 25 years ago or something, so if you are asking me that question, yes, it is late because somebody worked on it 25 years ago and it should have been -- but in reality if we introduce our machine, and we are planning to introduce our machines, probably five of them in 2010, we'll probably be three years before the production ramps come.

好吧，EUV——UV 概念可能始於 25 年前，所以如果你問我這個問題，是的，已經晚了，因為 25 年前有人研究過它，它應該是——但實際上，如果我們引入我們的機器，我們計劃在 2010 年推出我們的機器，其中可能有五台，我們可能需要三年時間才能開始生產。

Because as you imagine, you put a machine in place, then recipes have to be built at the customers, so you've got the technology in time.

因為就像你想像的那樣，你把一台機器放在適當的位置，然後必須為客戶制定食譜，所以你及時掌握了技術。

And that -- and we expect production in significant volume to be 2012, 2013 or so.

而且——我們預計 2012 年、2013 年左右會大量生產。

So I would say, no we are in good time.

所以我會說，不，我們來得正是時候。

You will hear in the market, issues with some customers who says for my node x, y, z, for this node, I would have preferred to have EUV in 2009 and now you forced me to use the other machines that showed the NXE for instance, which is called double patterning.

你會在市場上聽到一些客戶的問題，他們說對於我的節點 x、y、z，對於這個節點，我更願意在 2009 年擁有 EUV，現在你強迫我使用其他顯示 NXE 的機器實例，這稱為雙重圖案化。

So you have a certain number of fringe customers saying, you're late to my need, I would have preferred EUV.

所以你有一定數量的邊緣客戶說，你遲到了我的需要，我更喜歡 EUV。

So for us we take it as a vote of confidence, because if you are criticized to be late that means the concept is very good.

所以對我們來說，我們把它當作信任票，因為如果你被批評遲到，那意味著這個概念非常好。

But you lose -- if we are not chosen for EUV we'll be chosen for the NXE so this is a no business impact.

但是你輸了——如果我們沒有被選擇用於 EUV，我們將被選擇用於 NXE，所以這不會對業務產生影響。

But you don't lose the next generation anyway.

但無論如何你都不會失去下一代。

So I would say this question is a bit irrelevant.

所以我想說這個問題有點無關緊要。

The real question on EUV is the difficulty of it.

EUV 的真正問題是它的難度。

It's a very complicated technology and the next year is going to be extreme activity where the problem is not so much whether we're late or not, it's how fast we can execute to the performance of those machines.

這是一項非常複雜的技術，明年將是極端的活動，問題不在於我們是否遲到，而是我們能夠以多快的速度執行這些機器的性能。

And that's where the challenge will be.

這就是挑戰所在。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, Marcel van de Hoef from Bloomberg.

是的，彭博社的 Marcel van de Hoef。

First of all, just a follow-up question on EUV.

首先，只是關於 EUV 的後續問題。

So when do you start production and when do you start selling it?

那麼什麼時候開始生產，什麼時候開始銷售呢？

So we will deliver what we call pre-production or a production capable machine, but that will be used in R&D in 2010.

因此，我們將提供所謂的預生產或生產能力的機器，但將在 2010 年用於研發。

So around mid-2010.

所以大約在 2010 年年中。

And then we have a schedule for about five machines for which we have orders.

然後我們有大約五台機器的時間表，我們有訂單。

For five different customers?

對於五個不同的客戶？

Yes, for five different customers.

是的，針對五個不同的客戶。

Five machines, five different customers in 2010.

2010 年五台機器，五個不同的客戶。

Then there will probably be a bit of a stop because they are doing the recipe and then it will go again.

然後可能會停下來，因為他們正在做食譜，然後它會再次進行。

And a ramp-up in 2013 you said, or '12?

你說的是 2013 年或 12 年的增長？

'12.

'12。

'12.

'12。

I would say the customer will be aggressive.

我會說客戶會很激進。

Okay.

好的。

And then a question and maybe more for Mr.

然後是一個問題，也許還有更多問題要問先生。

Wennink.

文寧克。

Because of the crisis -- the way you generate cash on sales has been impacted quite a lot as you've been deteriorating.

由於這場危機——你在銷售中產生現金的方式受到了很大影響，因為你一直在惡化。

Do you think your cash conversion will deteriorate even further in the next couple of quarters, or will it improve?

您認為您的現金轉換在接下來的幾個季度會進一步惡化，還是會有所改善？

And what are you going to do about it, or what are you doing about it actually?

你打算怎麼辦，或者你實際上在做什麼？

I think we also said this in the presentation.

我想我們在演示中也說過這一點。

The decline in our business volume was very steep in the fourth quarter.

我們的業務量在第四季度的下降幅度非常大。

Our planning cycle in production is a lot longer, six to nine months.

我們的生產計劃週期要長得多，需要六到九個月。

It actually means you have material in the chain.

這實際上意味著您在鏈條中有材料。

Luckily we already had, during this year, by far the most focus on our leading edge products, so it means we have taken a lot of inventory in from our leading edge products.

幸運的是，今年我們已經最關注我們的前沿產品，所以這意味著我們已經從我們的前沿產品中獲取了大量庫存。

Now you take that inventory in, customers push it out; they don't take the tool.

現在你把庫存拿進來，客戶把它推出來；他們不拿工具。

They won't say please don't ship it to me, I don't want it in the first six months, it might be the end of the year.

他們不會說請不要寄給我，前六個月我不想要，可能是年底。

The bad thing about that is, you have to pay for that inventory, so the supplies, you can build the supplies ahead, my customer doesn't push us, [I push but] I'm not going to pay you.

這樣做的壞處是，你必須為庫存支付費用，所以供應品，你可以提前製造供應品，我的客戶不會推動我們，[我推動但]我不會付錢給你。

We have chosen not to do that.

我們選擇不這樣做。

We think the health of the supply chain is very important for us.

我們認為供應鏈的健康對我們非常重要。

So we have that inventory which means that the levels of sales that we're talking about like Q1, EUR200 million, EUR300 million, all that inventory is already there, we already bought it.

所以我們有庫存，這意味著我們正在談論的銷售水平，如第一季度，2 億歐元，3 億歐元，所有庫存都已經存在，我們已經購買了。

So it means the cash conversion with very low levels of sales is going to be very high because you don't need to buy anything, you already have it; it's called inventory.

所以這意味著銷售水平很低的現金轉換會非常高，因為你不需要買任何東西，你已經擁有了；這叫做庫存。

And when it's called inventory, it's first -- it then turns into an accounts receivable balance which customers need to pay you.

當它被稱為庫存時，它首先 - 然後變成客戶需要支付給您的應收賬款餘額。

We already have a big accounts receivable balance at the end of the fourth quarter because most of our shipments were in the last four or five weeks of 2008 which hadn't been paid yet before the end of the year.

我們在第四季度末已經有大量應收賬款餘額，因為我們的大部分發貨是在 2008 年的最後四五週內完成的，在年底之前尚未付款。

So that comes in.

所以進來了。

then you have on top of that the conversion of your inventory into receivables into cash.

然後你最重要的是將你的庫存轉化為應收賬款再轉化為現金。

So for the next few quarters, that's why we say the first half of 2009, we will remain cash positive.

因此，對於接下來的幾個季度，這就是我們說 2009 年上半年的原因，我們將保持現金充裕。

We can run every model that we do and then the main reason is, you could almost say we've pre-invested.

我們可以運行我們所做的每一個模型，然後主要原因是，你幾乎可以說我們已經預先投資了。

Not by choice, but it happened to us, but it does give us a very good opportunity to have a very good cash conversion cycle over the next few quarters.

不是出於選擇，而是發生在我們身上，但它確實給了我們一個很好的機會，讓我們在接下來的幾個季度擁有一個非常好的現金轉換週期。

[Howard Holder] from Reuters.

[霍華德霍爾德] 來自路透社。

Can you give an indication what the value of your backlog is now in these days?

您能否說明這些天您的積壓訂單的價值是多少？

How many orders are in risk for pushing even further out in the year?

今年有多少訂單面臨進一步推遲的風險？

A very good question.

一個很好的問題。

Well Howard, it's a bit indicative what happened in the fourth quarter.

好吧，霍華德，這有點預示了第四節發生的事情。

In the fourth quarter we said we had net 13 system orders which were 18 gross.

在第四季度，我們說我們有 13 個系統訂單，總訂單為 18 個。

So we had 18 new orders and we had five push outs, cancelations.

所以我們有 18 個新訂單，我們有 5 個延期、取消訂單。

So push outs beyond 12 months.

所以推出超過 12 個月。

So we have a rule if somebody has an order and he pushes out the order beyond 12 months we take it out of the backlog because in this industry, 12 months is a very long period.

所以我們有一個規則，如果有人有訂單並且他將訂單推遲超過 12 個月，我們就會將其從積壓訂單中刪除，因為在這個行業中，12 個月是一個非常長的時期。

So that five, you can count on the fingers of one hand, or at least my hand, that has been very normal for us over the last couple of years.

所以五個，你可以指望一隻手的手指，或者至少是我的手，這在過去幾年中對我們來說非常正常。

Between two and five push outs, cancelations have been pretty standard.

在兩到五次推出之間，取消是非常標準的。

Now the risk that you can see in the EUR750 million, the 41, is the timing.

現在，您可以在 7.5 億歐元（即 41）中看到的風險是時機。

So not so much whether they will take it, but as more customers say -- like I said earlier, I had this -- what have customers done?

所以與其說他們是否會接受它，不如說更多的客戶說——就像我之前說的，我有這個——客戶做了什麼？

It's like you're driving your car and you run suddenly into a thick fog.

這就像你正在開車，突然撞上了濃霧。

What do you do?

你做什麼工作？

What's the natural reaction?

什麼是自然反應？

You put your feet on the brake.

你把腳放在剎車上。

That's what these customers have done.

這就是這些客戶所做的。

So they're driving in the fog, there's no visibility and that means that we are just in that period.

所以他們在霧中行駛，沒有能見度，這意味著我們正處於那個時期。

We are in the first part of the fog.

我們在霧的第一部分。

And it's very difficult to predict that what you actually have on the backlog will remain there or will be pulled in, that's very difficult.

而且很難預測您在積壓工作中實際擁有的內容會保留在那裡還是會被拉入，這非常困難。

We're just at the beginning.

我們才剛剛開始。

Our customers are going to need one or two quarters to assess where they are.

我們的客戶將需要一兩個季度來評估他們的位置。

They are going to assess the outcome of the holiday season.

他們將評估假期的結果。

Which part of the electronics industry have fared reasonably well, which have done badly.

電子行業的哪些部分錶現不錯，哪些表現不佳。

It's not known yet.

目前還不知道。

So they need time to reassess.

所以他們需要時間重新評估。

That's why they told us, don't ask us to ship you the tools that we want for Q1 and for Q2.

這就是為什麼他們告訴我們，不要要求我們向您發送我們想要用於第一季度和第二季度的工具。

Push us back one or two quarters.

將我們推遲一兩個季度。

And well it's very likely that we need them by the end of the year, because like I said earlier, these customers will be under pressure also.

好吧，我們很可能在年底前需要它們，因為正如我之前所說，這些客戶也會承受壓力。

2009 is not going to be a great year.

2009 年不會是偉大的一年。

Chip prices will be under pressure.

芯片價格將承壓。

What do they need to do?

他們需要做什麼？

They need to reduce costs.

他們需要降低成本。

So how do you reduce costs?

那麼如何降低成本呢？

Put more chips on one wafer.

在一個晶圓上放置更多的芯片。

How do you put more chips on one wafer?

如何在一個晶圓上放置更多芯片？

Shrink the chip.

縮小芯片。

How do you shrink the chip?

你如何縮小芯片？

You buy a lithography tool.

你買了一個光刻工具。

So you can push it back without paying one or two quarters, but towards the end of the year you have been four quarters without cost reduction.

因此，您可以在不支付一兩個季度的情況下將其推遲，但到今年年底，您已經有四個季度沒有降低成本。

Not many of our customers can really do that.

我們的客戶中沒有多少能真正做到這一點。

So there's always a risk but I think ultimately it will come.

所以風險總是存在的，但我認為它最終會到來。

(Inaudible) Television.

（聽不清）電視。

Mr.

先生。

Meurice, you have invited the unions in Holland to come back to talk about cut costs.

Meurice，你已經邀請荷蘭的工會回來討論削減成本的問題。

This will be done this afternoon.

這將在今天下午完成。

What are you going to tell them after?

之後你要告訴他們什麼？

Could you come back in the afternoon?

你下午能回來嗎？

You understand --

你明白 -

[In a long answer] that's easy.

[長話短說] 這很簡單。

I will not tell you, but it is natural for me to put a message to the unions but also to the workers, the employees, and Holland in general, that there is a crisis out there and there could be method for all of us to optimize the situation, so that people get paid and not laid off and there is less risk.

我不會告訴你，但我很自然地要向工會、工人、僱員和整個荷蘭傳達一個信息，那就是那裡存在危機，我們所有人都可以找到方法優化情況，讓人們得到報酬而不是被解僱，風險也更小。

And also less risk -- we are a successful Company.

而且風險更低——我們是一家成功的公司。

We just give you a message that we are not going to go bankrupt soon.

我們只是給你一個信息，我們不會很快破產。

But if we don't manage this situation well, you can reduce your capability, your competitiveness etc., worldwide.

但如果我們不能很好地處理這種情況，您可能會在全球範圍內降低您的能力、競爭力等。

And for me, I think it's important that every of our stakeholders -- we're working for every stakeholder, we are working for our employees, for our shareholders and for our customers, that we pragmatically compromise and find solutions.

對我來說，我認為重要的是我們的每個利益相關者——我們正在為每個利益相關者工作，我們正在為我們的員工、我們的股東和我們的客戶工作，我們務實地妥協並找到解決方案。

And as you know we've taken the decision on the dividend, on our shareholders, by reducing a bit, although our share price has already helped them to contribute.

正如你所知，儘管我們的股價已經幫助他們做出貢獻，但我們已經通過減少一點來決定向我們的股東分紅。

We are talking to our employees and to the trade unions to understand what we can do.

我們正在與我們的員工和工會交談，以了解我們可以做什麼。

Again, the question is pragmatically, how do we get to be a pretty aggressively successful Company, even during the period of crisis.

同樣，這個問題是務實的，即使在危機時期，我們如何才能成為一家相當成功的公司。

But what will be the consequence when the unions would remain -- to refuse to cut costs on personnel here in Holland?

但是，如果工會繼續存在——拒絕削減荷蘭這裡的人員成本，後果會怎樣？

I do not see this as an alternative.

我不認為這是替代方案。

No, I think in the Dutch environment I understand that everybody goes one step towards each other, and this is kind of natural.

不，我認為在荷蘭的環境中，我理解每個人都朝著彼此邁出一步，這是很自然的。

And I expect us to do the same and them to do the same.

我希望我們也這樣做，他們也這樣做。

It's the interest of the union, it's the interest of the employee, and it's a bit also the interest of Holland that we are trying to protect here.

這是工會的利益，是員工的利益，也是我們在這裡試圖保護的荷蘭的利益。

It would not be a good thing for the world to know that we consider that there is no crisis there and people can be erased without problems and you can't do this because then you have difficulty to attract further investment in the country.

讓世界知道我們認為那裡沒有危機，可以毫無問題地消滅人民，而你不能這樣做，因為那樣你就很難在該國吸引更多投資，這不是一件好事。

So it's in the interest to say, how do we compromise?

所以說，我們如何妥協是符合利益的？

So I do expect a natural compromise in which all of us will be successful.

所以我確實期待一個自然的妥協，我們所有人都會在其中取得成功。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Steen from the Financial Times.

英國《金融時報》的邁克爾·斯蒂恩。

I was interested in the Japan share in your sales which I know you've been trying to grow.

我對日本在你們銷售額中的份額很感興趣，我知道你們一直在努力增加這一份額。

But I'm just wondering, is that because other territories fell away quicker, or you actually did succeed in gaining market share?

但我只是想知道，這是因為其他地區的下滑速度更快，還是你們確實成功地獲得了市場份額？

I think it's a bit earlier to say what the market share in Japan is, but I could estimate it to be between 30% and 40%.

我認為現在說日本的市場份額是多少有點早，但我可以估計它在 30% 到 40% 之間。

So when we talked last time, I think about a year, two years ago or something, we were at 5% and we started 2%, 3%, 5% and now we are 30% to 40% real market share.

所以當我們上次談話時，我想大約一年、兩年前，我們的市場份額為 5%，開始時為 2%、3%、5%，現在我們的實際市場份額為 30% 至 40%。

So, of course they bought and this time they were 20% of our -- or they are 20% of our bookings etc., but they represent now a fairly large part of our business and we represent a fairly large part of their total needs.

所以，他們當然買了，這次他們是我們的 20%——或者他們是我們預訂的 20% 等等，但他們現在代表了我們業務的相當大的一部分，我們代表了他們總需求的相當大的一部分.

The Japan economy and Japanese customers are not shielded from this worldwide economic recession, so they feel the impact just as others do.

日本經濟和日本客戶並沒有免受這場全球經濟衰退的影響，因此他們和其他人一樣感受到了影響。

So this is a reflection of market (inaudible) gains, not so much other countries or other regions falling away faster.

因此，這反映了市場（聽不清）收益，與其說是其他國家或其他地區下滑得更快。

They go with the rest.

他們和其他人一起去。

Good morning.

早上好。

Is the Dutch government doing the right thing to help you through this crisis?

荷蘭政府是否在做正確的事情來幫助您度過這場危機？

If they don't take my passport away.

如果他們不拿走我的護照。

No, I think the Dutch government is extremely pragmatic, it has consulted with us, by the way, on a regular basis, have certain numbers of programs that we make use of to support activities, and reduce layoff opportunities.

不，我認為荷蘭政府非常務實，順便說一下，它定期與我們協商，有一定數量的計劃可以用來支持活動，減少裁員機會。

One of the programs is WBSO support of R&D investment which is very good.

其中一項計劃是 WBSO 對研發投資的支持，這非常好。

They have also introduced now a system of support of short labor which I would say if I were a politician in every country, I would strengthen.

他們現在還引入了一種支持短期勞動力的製度，我想說，如果我是每個國家的政治家，我都會加強這種制度。

The problem of a crisis of the nature that we have is obviously demand-driven, but that treatment is going to be based on how many people are going to lose their employment.

我們所面臨的這種性質的危機問題顯然是由需求驅動的，但這種處理方式將取決於有多少人將失去工作。

And if you succeed to create a strong structure that keeps people employed by securing that they stay available and work 50% of the time for a very long period of time, you really make an economic impact on the demand.

如果你成功地創建了一個強大的結構，通過確保他們在很長一段時間內保持可用並在 50% 的時間工作來保持人們的就業，你真的會對需求產生經濟影響。

So that's a fundamental position which I feel the government in Holland has shown vision.

所以這是一個基本立場，我認為荷蘭政府已經展示了遠見。

The different regions of Holland have also some separate programs and a bit of flexibility to use some of the budget that they have, etc.

荷蘭的不同地區也有一些單獨的計劃，並且可以靈活地使用他們擁有的一些預算，等等。

I do understand that Essent have been sold and some cash or some funding will be available and that the different regions are starting to think about how to invest this effectively.

我確實知道 Essent 已經出售，並且會有一些現金或一些資金可用，並且不同地區開始考慮如何有效地進行投資。

In this area I think we have BrainPort which has driven the possibility of a common use of workers etc., subsidized.

在這個領域，我認為我們有 BrainPort，它推動了工人等共同使用的可能性，並得到了補貼。

So all these are good activities.

所以這些都是很好的活動。

What I can always say is, we can use simpler and faster access to those good ideas; it's a normal request of efficiency of anything.

我總能說的是，我們可以更簡單、更快速地訪問那些好的想法；這是對任何事物效率的正常要求。

And if we get that I think we'll be able to do things without increasing or doing any layoffs etc.

如果我們明白這一點，我認為我們能夠在不增加或裁員等情況下做事。

Yes, can I add to that because I have been in contact with the local governments and with also the Dutch national government.

是的，我可以補充一下嗎，因為我一直在與地方政府以及荷蘭國家政府保持聯繫。

After an initial slow start, it wasn't quite clear how fast this went and how deep.

在最初的緩慢啟動之後，還不太清楚進展的速度和深度。

I think definitely the government has caught up in terms of pragmatism, I do agree.

我認為政府肯定已經在實用主義方面趕上了，我同意。

Focus; I heard Minister Bos say that they're thinking of measures, which he's going to announce, which go right to the heart of the discussions that we have had with them, whether it's on the availability of credit, how are you going to help that.

重點;我聽到 Bos 部長說他們正在考慮他將要宣布的措施，這些措施正是我們與他們進行的討論的核心，無論是關於信貸的可用性，你將如何提供幫助.

Whether it's on export financing, guarantees.

無論是出口融資還是擔保。

Those are all issues that we brought up as potential government measures that can really help.

這些都是我們提出的真正有幫助的潛在政府措施的問題。

We've been through the BrainPort organization; BrainPort is a foundation here sponsored by the government that focuses on the technology area in Eindhoven, bigger.

我們經歷過 BrainPort 組織； BrainPort 是一個由政府贊助的基金會，專注於埃因霍溫更大的技術領域。

Eindhoven, they've been very helpful.

埃因霍溫，他們幫了大忙。

The mayor of Eindhoven has been very instrumental.

埃因霍溫市長發揮了重要作用。

The province minister, Minister Donner, [van] Wouter Bos, have been -- they've shown real pragmatism, and is a clear drive to take action so I'm really pleased about that.

省長 Donner 部長 [van] Wouter Bos，他們表現出了真正的實用主義，並且是採取行動的明確動力，所以我對此感到非常高興。

[Something] about your dividends?

[關於]你的股息？

You will pay a dividend of EUR0.20 does that (inaudible) in the future?

您將來會支付 0.20 歐元的股息嗎（聽不清）？

I think it does.

我認為是的。

Yes that's a payout ratio gone up there from 17% to 27%.

是的，派息率從 17% 上升到 27%。

I think I don't remember the (inaudible) of shareholders exactly, but they showed data what a normal payout ratio is in our industry; it's about 20% so we do a bit more now and it shows confidence in our ability to keep generating cash, yes.

我想我不記得（聽不清）股東的具體情況，但他們用數據顯示了我們行業的正常派息率是多少；它大約是 20%，所以我們現在做得更多，這表明我們對繼續產生現金的能力充滿信心，是的。

You talked about your market share in Japan.

你談到了你在日本的市場份額。

How is that worldwide?

世界範圍內情況如何？

What happened in quarter four last year?

去年第四季度發生了什麼？

We could probably close the year -- again, the numbers will be public in a month or so because we are waiting for external houses to do this.

我們可能會結束這一年——同樣，這些數字將在一個月左右的時間內公開，因為我們正在等待外部機構這樣做。

It will probably be around 65% to 68% market share.

它可能會佔據 65% 到 68% 的市場份額。

It's all now depending on the exchange rate calculations because all this will have an impact.

現在一切都取決於匯率計算，因為所有這些都會產生影響。

But probably in this order of magnitude.

但可能在這個數量級。

So we would have gained about 2 points of market share in 2008 versus 2007.

因此，與 2007 年相比，2008 年我們的市場份額將增加約 2 個百分點。

And did it also happen in the last quarter?

它也發生在上個季度嗎？

Or was the last quarter worse for you than for your competitors?

還是上個季度您的情況比您的競爭對手更糟？

Again, we are waiting for the month of December for us.

同樣，我們正在等待 12 月。

The month of December has been very big and this is a business now, we have to be highly cautious with market share now because with some business [tanking] ,one machine makes a difference and that's not relevant any longer.

12 月份非常大，現在這是一項業務，我們現在必須對市場份額高度謹慎，因為對於某些業務 [tanking]，一台機器會有所作為，而這不再相關。

So the month of December, we've been very good and they have been very bad, so the numbers can be all over the place.

所以在 12 月份，我們一直很好，而他們一直很糟糕，所以數字可能無處不在。

We have to wait a bit.

我們得稍等一下。

Anyone else?

還有誰？

Last question?

最後一個問題？

Yes?

是的？

Maybe you can comment on the financials that your customers can get?

也許您可以評論您的客戶可以獲得的財務信息？

Because a few months ago this was not very clear to the financial crisis.

因為幾個月前這個金融危機還不是很清楚。

Do you get more -- is it more visible that they can access the --?

您是否獲得更多 - 他們可以訪問 - 是否更明顯？

It is.

這是。

You've got two, three types of customers to simplify.

您有兩種、三種類型的客戶需要簡化。

One which -- for which your question is irrelevant; this would be Samsung, Intel, even Toshiba losing a bit of money.

一個——與你的問題無關的；這會讓三星、英特爾甚至東芝都損失一點錢。

But where financing is not really the issue ;the issue is end demand.

但融資並不是真正的問題；問題是最終需求。

You have certain numbers where the financing is an issue but they are big enough that they can drive financing.

你有一定數量的融資是一個問題，但它們足夠大，可以推動融資。

These are the Heinex, these are the Elpida's, this is the Micronas etc., so it's hard for them.

這些是 Heinex，這些是 Elpida 的，這是 Micronas 等，所以這對他們來說很難。

They have to go on their knees but they do find money.

他們不得不跪下來，但他們確實找到了錢。

Heinex announced in December 600 million I think it was; Micronas has got also a source of financing etc, so --

Heinex 在 12 月宣布了 6 億，我認為是； Micronas 也有資金來源等，所以——

Qimonda announced --

奇夢達宣布——

And then you have the smaller types, DRAM and Qimonda etc., and where the struggle is a bit more.

然後是更小的類型，DRAM 和奇夢達等，其中的鬥爭更多一些。

So Qimonda luckily have been able to secure loans or financing from (inaudible) government, Saxony government and the German government on two separate projects.

因此奇夢達幸運地從（聽不清）政府、薩克森政府和德國政府獲得了兩個獨立項目的貸款或融資。

So this seems to be giving them the opportunity to continue investing during their bad time.

因此，這似乎讓他們有機會在經濟不景氣時繼續投資。

And the rest of the DRAM business, the smaller Taiwanese etc., are now supported by the Taiwanese government.

其餘的 DRAM 業務，較小的台灣等，現在由台灣政府支持。

And this effort is a very interesting fundamental, very good for us and for the industry.

這項努力是一個非常有趣的基礎，對我們和整個行業都非常有利。

The Taiwanese government has basically said, look we will support this business, it's important for Taiwan, but in return we want you to consolidate your industry or bring a business model that works.

台灣政府基本上是說，我們會支持這項業務，這對台灣很重要，但作為回報，我們希望你們鞏固你們的產業或帶來一種行之有效的商業模式。

That's a very important thing because some -- we all know that the DRAM business model has been questionable because a lot of people are losing tons of money.

這是一件非常重要的事情，因為一些 - 我們都知道 DRAM 商業模式一直受到質疑，因為很多人都在損失大量資金。

And the Taiwanese government are saying fine, DRAM is a big business obviously, but how do you restructure it, consolidate it for money?

台灣政府說好，DRAM 顯然是一個大企業，但你如何重組它，為了錢整合它？

And they have said, when I get a good business plan I start giving money.

他們說，當我得到一個好的商業計劃時，我就開始捐錢。

And I don't know if you are aware, but at this moment, a lot of people are visiting Taiwan to present their business plan.

而且我不知道你是否知道，但是此時此刻，很多人正在訪問台灣來展示他們的商業計劃。

And we suppose that within -- before June, a position will be taken that creates a major player in this business, well financed, and in a consolidated-type --

我們假設在 6 月之前，將採取一個立場，在該業務中創造一個主要參與者，資金充足，並且是合併的類型 -

And consolidation means taking capacity out.

整合意味著削減產能。

You don't restructure, you don't put all the capacity together under a new name which you do; you consolidate and you look what's profitable and what isn't.

你不重組，你不把所有的能力放在一個新的名字下，你這樣做；你合併，你看看什麼是有利可圖的，什麼不是。

And what isn't is a lot of capacity that is older, that has to be taken out.

而不是的是很多陳舊的容量，必須被淘汰。

And if you decrease capacity, it means that you have a much healthier base to basically go back to healthy pricing, and we need healthy pricing to be profitable.

如果你減少產能，這意味著你有一個更健康的基礎來基本上回到健康的定價，我們需要健康的定價才能盈利。

So I think it's a good thing.

所以我認為這是一件好事。

It's a good thing that governments are, like Eric said, saying, yes we think it is an important spear point industry.

正如埃里克所說，政府是一件好事，他說，是的，我們認為這是一個重要的矛頭行業。

For us it's very important to have that industry.

對我們來說，擁有那個行業非常重要。

But we're going to ask -- we're going to demand certain conditions under which you get the money.

但我們要問 - 我們將要求您獲得資金的某些條件。

And I think it will be to make that industry healthier, which is in the end very good for us.

我認為這將使該行業更健康，這最終對我們非常有利。

Also guess what, when they come back as a healthier company you think they want to decrease costs, they want to cut costs and they want to go to (inaudible), I bet you that they would.

還猜猜是什麼，當他們作為一家更健康的公司回來時，你認為他們想要降低成本，他們想要削減成本並且他們想要去（聽不清），我敢打賭他們會的。

Which is good because they will come to us.

這很好，因為他們會來找我們。

No more questions?

別再問問題了？

Anyone else?

還有誰？

No?

不？

Thank you very much for attending.

非常感謝您的出席。

Thank you very much for listening if you're on the webcast.

非常感謝您收聽網絡廣播。

Do click on those links on the website, there's lots to see.

請點擊網站上的那些鏈接，那裡有很多值得一看的地方。

And thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝。