艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2009 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the ASML 2009 second quarter results conference call on July 15, 2009.

    歡迎參加 2009 年 7 月 15 日召開的 ASML 2009 年第二季度業績電話會議。

  • Throughout today's introduction all participants will be in listen-only mode.

    在今天的介紹中,所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

  • After ASML's introduction there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

    介紹 ASML 之後,將有機會提問。

  • (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

    (操作員說明)我現在想將會議轉交給先生。

  • Craig DeYoung.

    克雷格·德揚。

  • Go ahead please, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

    Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

    謝謝接線員,女士們先生們,早上好,下午好。

  • This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at ASML, and I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast.

    我是 ASML 投資者關係和企業傳播部副總裁 Craig DeYoung,歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網絡直播。

  • As the operator mentioned, the subject of today's call is, of course, ASML's 2009 second quarter results.

    正如運營商所說,今天電話會議的主題當然是ASML 2009年第二季度的業績。

  • With me today at the SEMICON West venue in San Francisco, and co-hosting today's call is Mr.

    今天和我一起在舊金山的 SEMICON West 會場,共同主持今天的電話會議的是 Mr.

  • Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO, and joining us from our headquarters in Veldhoven, the Netherlands is our CFO Peter Wennink.

    ASML 的首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和我們的首席財務官 Peter Wennink 從我們位於荷蘭 Veldhoven 的總部加入了我們。

  • At this time, I'd like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and fourth quarter results presentation, both of which you can find on our webcast at www.asml.com, and which will apply to this call and all associated presentation materials.

    此時,我想提請您注意今天的新聞稿和第四季度業績演示中包含的安全港聲明,您可以在我們的網絡廣播 www.asml.com 上找到這兩項聲明,它們將適用於此電話和所有相關的演示材料。

  • I would remind you that the length of the call will be 60 minutes.

    我想提醒您,通話時間為 60 分鐘。

  • And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr.

    現在,我想把電話轉給先生。

  • Meurice for a brief introduction.

    默里斯作簡要介紹。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Thank you, Craig.

    謝謝你,克雷格。

  • Good morning, good afternoon.

    早上好,下午好。

  • Thank you, everyone, for attending our second quarter results conference call.

    謝謝大家參加我們的第二季度業績電話會議。

  • Peter and I will, as usual, provide an overview and some commentary on the quarter.

    彼得和我將像往常一樣,對本季度進行概述和評論。

  • Peter will start with a review of the Q2 financial performance, and will add some comment on the short term outlook.

    Peter 將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績,並對短期前景發表一些評論。

  • And I will complete this introduction with some further detail on our current position, strategic, how we head towards the end of 2009.

    我將通過進一步詳細介紹我們當前的位置、戰略以及我們如何走向 2009 年底來完成本介紹。

  • Following this introduction we will open up for questions.

    在此介紹之後,我們將公開提問。

  • So, Peter, please if you will.

    所以,彼得,如果你願意的話,請。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Thank you, Eric, and welcome to everyone.

    謝謝你,埃里克,歡迎大家。

  • As usual I would like to take a small amount of time to review some of our -- some of the events of the last quarter as well as some details on our second quarter results.

    像往常一樣,我想花一點時間來回顧一下我們的一些 - 上個季度的一些事件以及我們第二季度業績的一些細節。

  • We closed the second quarter with higher than expected sales.

    我們以高於預期的銷售額結束了第二季度。

  • However, they were weak in comparison to this time last year, and also weak compared to what we consider for the coming quarters.

    然而,與去年同期相比,它們表現疲軟,與我們對未來幾個季度的預期相比也表現疲軟。

  • Our second quarter sales were above our guided range at EUR277m.

    我們第二季度的銷售額為 2.77 億歐元,高於我們的指導範圍。

  • We shipped a total of 10 systems, four of which were new.

    我們總共運送了 10 個系統,其中四個是新系統。

  • All new tools shipped were immersion systems, causing a new system ASP of EUR31.1m, which is very high.

    出貨的所有新工具都是浸入式系統,導致新系統平均售價達到 3110 萬歐元,非常高。

  • And the ASP of all systems was around EUR18m, but that was helped by the high ASP of new systems of around EUR10m.

    所有系統的平均售價約為 1800 萬歐元,但這得益於新系統約 1000 萬歐元的高平均售價。

  • That was due to the sale of two used immersion tools in the quarter.

    這是由於本季度出售了兩個用過的浸入式工具。

  • Our services revenues re-bounded a bit and we reported EUR94m service and field options sales.

    我們的服務收入有所回升,我們報告了 9400 萬歐元的服務和現場選項銷售額。

  • The Company's second quarter gross margin was 12.5% versus 6.7% in Q1, and this reflects an increase in sales from the low first quarter levels.

    公司第二季度的毛利率為 12.5%,而第一季度為 6.7%,這反映出銷售額較第一季度的低水平有所增長。

  • We maintain our focus on R&D with a spend of EUR118m in the second quarter, which is unchanged from Q1.

    我們繼續專注於研發,第二季度支出為 1.18 億歐元,與第一季度持平。

  • And, as predicted, the very weak first half of the year did not impact our cash balance.

    而且,正如預測的那樣,上半年非常疲軟並沒有影響我們的現金餘額。

  • As a matter of fact we generated cash, and even including our dividend payment we managed to stay virtually even compared to our cash balance at the beginning of the year.

    事實上,我們產生了現金,甚至包括我們的股息支付,與年初的現金餘額相比,我們幾乎持平。

  • Net cash from operations was EUR71m in the quarter.

    本季度來自運營的淨現金為 7100 萬歐元。

  • We ended the second quarter with around EUR1.1b in cash.

    我們以約 1.1b 歐元的現金結束了第二季度。

  • Like I said, cash flow in the first half was impacted by dividend payments of around EUR86m and capital expenditures of EUR87m (sic - see press release), mainly relating to the new manufacturing facilities, which were finalized in the second quarter.

    正如我所說,上半年的現金流受到約 8600 萬歐元的股息支付和 8700 萬歐元的資本支出(原文如此 - 見新聞稿)的影響,主要與第二季度完成的新製造設施有關。

  • As for the outlook Q2 net bookings of 15 systems were valued at close to EUR400m.

    至於展望,15 個系統的第二季度淨預訂價值接近 4 億歐元。

  • Net immersion bookings were 13 systems, and they demonstrated a focus on technology investments.

    淨沉浸式預訂有 13 個系統,它們表現出對技術投資的關注。

  • This bookings level pushed our backlog again over EUR1.1b as of the end of the quarter.

    截至本季度末,這一預訂水平使我們的積壓訂單再次超過 EUR1.1b。

  • The backlog now contains a total of 43 systems, 32 of which are immersion systems.

    積壓現在包含總共 43 個系統,其中 32 個是浸入式系統。

  • And this includes new and used XT immersion systems as well as our newest product the NXT.

    這包括新的和用過的 XT 浸入式系統以及我們的最新產品 NXT。

  • We believe investments in leading edge technologies has resumed in the second quarter, and is indicative of a pattern of technology spend that will result in a minimum quarterly net average sales level of between EUR400m and EUR500m for the next quarters.

    我們認為,對領先技術的投資已在第二季度恢復,這表明技術支出模式將導致未來幾個季度的最低季度淨平均銷售額水平在 4 億至 5 億歐元之間。

  • This range could certainly increase as a result of a need for capacity, in particular for leading edge technologies, triggered by a potential recovery of semiconductor growth, even if this recovery is limited, as there is currently little to no excess capacity at leading edge.

    由於半導體增長的潛在復蘇引發的產能需求,特別是前沿技術的需求,這一範圍肯定會增加,即使這種複蘇是有限的,因為目前前沿幾乎沒有或沒有過剩產能。

  • We expect Q3 2009 sales to be around EUR450m with a gross margin of about 30%.

    我們預計 2009 年第三季度銷售額約為 4.5 億歐元,毛利率約為 30%。

  • Expenses are expected to decrease to EUR115m for R&D and EUR39m for SG&A.

    預計研發費用將減少至 1.15 億歐元,SG&A 費用將減少至 3900 萬歐元。

  • As previously indicated we manage the company towards breakeven at a quarterly sales level of around EUR450m by the end of this year.

    如前所述,我們管理公司到今年年底實現盈虧平衡,季度銷售額約為 4.5 億歐元。

  • The targeted cost structure will support all of our strategic R&D programs, and allows appropriate upside for sufficient production capacity.

    目標成本結構將支持我們所有的戰略研發計劃,並為充足的生產能力提供適當的上升空間。

  • Our cash balance in the second half of 2009 is expected to fall moderately below our EUR1b target as we prepare for shipments of the first NXT systems starting in Q3 of this year, and that will accelerate in 2010.

    我們在 2009 年下半年的現金餘額預計將適度低於我們的 1b 歐元目標,因為我們準備在今年第三季度開始發貨第一批 NXT 系統,並且這將在 2010 年加速。

  • As well as we prepare to build EUV systems planned for delivery in the second half of 2010.

    我們還準備構建計劃於 2010 年下半年交付的 EUV 系統。

  • Now all of these products initially carry longer production lead times, which temporarily require more working capital.

    現在所有這些產品最初都有更長的生產提前期,這暫時需要更多的營運資金。

  • And now I'd like to turn back it over to Eric, and, Eric, for you more on our strategy for the coming quarters.

    現在我想把它轉交給埃里克,埃里克,為你更多地介紹我們未來幾個季度的戰略。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Thank you, Peter.

    謝謝你,彼得。

  • So, as Peter said, we are indeed recovering to quarterly sales level which we consider somewhat safe, as these levels are linked to necessary technology transitions buys by our customers, which have to happen even during a tough recession.

    因此,正如彼得所說,我們確實正在恢復到我們認為比較安全的季度銷售水平,因為這些水平與我們客戶購買的必要技術轉型相關聯,即使在嚴重的經濟衰退期間也必鬚髮生這種情況。

  • The question is when the capacity buys will add up, will add up to the current sales, to bring us back to our secular growth trajectory.

    問題是購買的產能何時會增加,會增加到當前的銷售額,從而使我們回到我們的長期增長軌跡。

  • At this point there are no sustained indications of the world moving out of recession as you know, or of semiconductor units recovering to at least the level of 2008 historical peak.

    如您所知,目前沒有持續的跡象表明世界正在擺脫衰退,或者半導體部門至少恢復到 2008 年曆史峰值的水平。

  • We will have to wait for further signs before being able to forecast such a recovery, which will translate in lithography sales significantly above the current EUR450m level, quarterly level that we are guiding at this moment.

    在能夠預測這種複甦之前,我們將不得不等待進一步的跡象,這將轉化為光刻銷售額大大高於目前 4.5 億歐元的水平,這是我們目前指導的季度水平。

  • We can, however, note a certain number of positive factors.

    然而,我們可以注意到一些積極因素。

  • First, the semiconductor industry has significantly shrunk total wafer out capacity, in particular by shutting down all 200mm lines which will not come back, and by transitioning to new technologies on the 300mm, which are much more capital intensive.

    首先,半導體行業已顯著縮減晶圓總產能,特別是通過關閉所有不會恢復生產的 200 毫米生產線,並過渡到資本密集度更高的 300 毫米新技術。

  • So this reduction of capacity makes a return to unit growth translate quickly to capacity buys, in particular, in the leading edge segments.

    因此,這種產能減少使得單位增長的回歸迅速轉化為產能購買,特別是在前沿領域。

  • Second point is that the new technologies I am talking about, which comes from this technology transition buy, are necessary for the DRAM, NAND logic sectors and are clearly lithography hungry in numbers of layers, for instance, when using double patterning.

    第二點是,我正在談論的新技術,來自這種技術轉型購買,對於 DRAM、NAND 邏輯部門是必需的,並且顯然在層數上需要光刻技術,例如,在使用雙圖案化時。

  • And they are also lithographic critical in terms of overlay, lens resolution, CD control.

    而且它們在覆蓋、鏡頭分辨率、CD 控制方面也對光刻至關重要。

  • All this allows us to project a very rich mix, product mix, and for high product ASPs.

    所有這些使我們能夠設計出非常豐富的組合、產品組合以及高產品平均售價。

  • This is the case for the current push by leading DRAM manufacturers to, for instance, DDR3 memory devices, as they provide higher performance, speed and power consumption at lower cost.

    例如,領先的 DRAM 製造商目前正在推動 DDR3 內存設備,因為它們以更低的成本提供更高的性能、速度和功耗。

  • This -- and the need for the -- and the need to differentiate by driving technology even faster to 40 nanometers will support a very healthy high end immersion market in the DRAM business in 2010.

    這——以及對——的需求,以及通過將技術更快地推向 40 納米來實現差異化的需求,將在 2010 年支持 DRAM 業務中非常健康的高端浸入式市場。

  • The NAND flash memory segment, currently ramping 30 nanometer technology will begin preparation of the 20 or 2x node in 2010 to hit the very important $1 per gig target price, a little bit, target price in order to start significant penetration in the laptop computer market, with solid state drive to replace hard disk drive.

    NAND 閃存部分,目前採用 30 納米技術,將在 2010 年開始準備 20 或 2x 節點,以達到非常重要的每千兆美元 1 美元的目標價格,一點點,目標價格,以便開始在筆記本電腦市場的顯著滲透,用固態硬盤取代硬盤驅動器。

  • In the third segment, logic and foundry, growth will be sustained by the current aggressive chip transition to 40 or 45 nanometer nodes, which now represents a significant share of the total business.

    在第三部分,邏輯和代工,增長將通過當前積極的芯片過渡到 40 或 45 納米節點來維持,這現在佔總業務的很大一部分。

  • ASML's strategy and ability to invest heavily in multiple technologies in parallel, namely the XT platform for cost effective solution.

    ASML 的戰略和能力同時大量投資於多種技術,即 XT 平台以提供具有成本效益的解決方案。

  • The -- number two, the NXT platform for critical application with no equivalent performance on the market today announced.

    第二,今天宣布推出市場上沒有同等性能的用於關鍵應用程序的 NXT 平台。

  • Number three, a suite of litho enablers called holistic lithography.

    第三,一套稱為整體光刻的光刻技術。

  • And number four, the next generation EUV technology.

    第四,下一代 EUV 技術。

  • All these -- the four efforts that we are doing in R&D is starting to show its strategic value, as the current technology transition have to rely on the most aggressive technologies and can no longer be compromised.

    所有這些——我們在研發方面所做的四項努力開始顯示其戰略價值,因為當前的技術轉型必須依賴最激進的技術,不能再妥協。

  • In summary, we believe that this recession is allowing us to focus on our technology execution for significant market credibility gain, and will allow us enough sales to manage around the breakeven level until our semiconductor customers' own unit demand fires up.

    總而言之,我們認為這次經濟衰退使我們能夠專注於我們的技術執行以獲得顯著的市場信譽收益,並將使我們有足夠的銷售額來管理盈虧平衡水平,直到我們的半導體客戶自己的單位需求激增。

  • So with this Peter and I would be pleased to take your questions thank you.

    因此,彼得和我很樂意回答您的問題,謝謝。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

    Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

  • Thanks, Eric.

    謝謝,埃里克。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session.

    女士們,先生們,接線員將立即指導您了解問答環節的流程。

  • But before hand I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary.

    但在此之前,我想請您將自己限制在一個問題上,並在必要時進行簡短的跟進。

  • This will allow us to get as many callers in as possible.

    這將使我們能夠吸引盡可能多的來電者。

  • Now, operator, if we could have your instructions, and then the first question please.

    現在,接線員,請問我們能否得到您的指示,然後是第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自先生。

  • Nicolas Gaudois.

    尼古拉斯·高杜瓦。

  • Please state your company name followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Proceed please.

    請繼續。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Hi there, it is UBS.

    您好,我是瑞銀。

  • First question is on NAND flash.

    第一個問題是關於 NAND 閃存。

  • You sound a little bit more positive there on, I guess, some of the discussions you've had with at least two key customers on that.

    你聽起來有點積極,我猜,你與至少兩個主要客戶就此進行的一些討論。

  • And if we look, I guess, at substitution rate in NAND flash being pretty much close to saturation as of now, Intel commenting on solid state drive acceptance yesterday also improving, I guess one could construct that beyond shrink investment there may be requirements for capacity as well coming back next year.

    我猜,如果我們看一下,NAND 閃存的替代率目前已接近飽和,英特爾昨天評論固態驅動器的接受度也在提高,我想人們可以認為,除了縮減投資之外,可能還需要容量以及明年回來。

  • So if you could give us your view on that as a starting point it would be great.

    因此,如果您能將您對此的看法作為起點,那就太好了。

  • I would then have a follow-up for Peter on margins.

    然後我會在邊緣對彼得進行跟進。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Yes, Nick, thank you for the question.

    是的,尼克,謝謝你的提問。

  • Where we -- if we -- we had to prioritize the segments which have more growth potential at this moment, we would still position DRAM first at this moment.

    我們 - 如果我們 - 我們必須優先考慮目前具有更大增長潛力的細分市場,我們此時仍會將 DRAM 放在首位。

  • There is much more activity in the DRAM sector.

    DRAM 領域的活動要多得多。

  • But closely comment in a sense that there has been a significant over-capacity built up in 2008 or so, and you can see that the market demand has been catching up on this overcapacity, and therefore the main customers are at this moment starting to plan for the restart of their business.

    但是細細的評論一下,在2008年左右的時候已經出現了明顯的產能過剩,可以看到市場需求已經在追趕這個產能過剩,所以主要客戶在這個時候開始計劃為了重新開始他們的業務。

  • But I would guess at this moment most of the shipments that we will do in the next six months will be going to DRAM and logic, and that the flash business will start late into the year, and into 2010.

    但我猜現在我們將在未來六個月內完成的大部分出貨量將用於 DRAM 和邏輯,而閃存業務將在今年晚些時候開始,直到 2010 年。

  • Added to this you are starting to see a conversion discussion of NAND from 30 nanometer which is the current new technology to 20 nanometer which again will start mid-2010.

    除此之外,您還開始看到 NAND 從 30 納米(目前的新技術)到 20 納米(2010 年年中將再次開始)的轉換討論。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And on the cost side your gross margin guidance for Q3 was probably a touch light versus expectations, if you could clarify the reason for that.

    在成本方面,您對第三季度的毛利率指導可能與預期相去甚遠,如果您能澄清原因的話。

  • And how should we think about gross margins going into the back end of the year towards your breakeven target, in particular as far as variable costs are concerned.

    我們應該如何考慮毛利率進入年底達到您的盈虧平衡目標,特別是就可變成本而言。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes, with respect to the third quarter there are two reasons why the gross margin is a touch light, and it has to do with the fact that one, we are still shipping tools out of old inventory, inventory we purchased in 2008.

    是的,就第三季度而言,毛利率微乎其微有兩個原因,這與一個事實有關,我們仍在從舊庫存中運送工具,這是我們在 2008 年購買的庫存。

  • We are only going to replenish that in Q3 for shipment in Q4.

    我們只會在第三季度補充,以便在第四季度發貨。

  • So cost reduction of modules and parts will only enter the income statements towards the end of the year.

    因此,模塊和零件的成本減少只會在年底進入損益表。

  • That's one.

    那是一個。

  • And number two is the cost reduction initiatives that we have started are going to see effect in Q3, but increasingly in Q4.

    第二是我們已經開始的成本削減計劃將在第三季度看到效果,但在第四季度會越來越多。

  • So those are the two reasons.

    所以這是兩個原因。

  • And that brings us to the point where we will reach that EUR450m breakeven point by the end of the year, which is then your driver, what we call the direct material margin, which is currently just a touch over 55%, which should go to 60%.

    這讓我們到了今年年底將達到 4.5 億歐元盈虧平衡點的地步,這就是你的驅動力,我們稱之為直接材料利潤率,目前剛剛超過 55%,應該去60%。

  • And with our current cost structure of, let's say, EUR275m per quarter you can then calculate that will bring us to breakeven point by the end of the year.

    根據我們目前的成本結構,比方說,每季度 2.75 億歐元,然後您可以計算出這將使我們在年底前達到盈虧平衡點。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect, thank you.

    好的,完美,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Simon Schafer.

    西蒙·謝弗。

  • Please state your company name followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • It's Simon Schafer with Goldman Sachs.

    我是高盛的 Simon Schafer。

  • I was just going back to this question about NAND flash, just wondering what the famous ASML model says about under or overcapacity in that segment, because clearly it seems as if the variability towards the end of the year could be coming from that customer base, and as to whether that supply and demand is more in balance.

    我剛剛回到這個關於 NAND 閃存的問題,只是想知道著名的 ASML 模型對那個部分的產能不足或過剩有什麼看法,因為很明顯,年底的變化似乎可能來自該客戶群,以及供需是否更加平衡。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • First of all, thank you very much for calling our model the famous model, which I take it as a compliment.

    首先,非常感謝您稱我們的模特為名模,我認為這是一種褒獎。

  • And the famous model, let's say, is basically saying that with the current reduction of capacity in the world because of the retirement of 200mm capacity, as well as the transition to 3x and 4x we estimate the total worldwide capacity between 2008 and currently 2009 to have shrunk by about 20% at this moment.

    而著名的模型,比如說,基本上是說,由於 200 毫米產能的退役以及向 3 倍和 4 倍的過渡,目前全球產能正在減少,我們估計 2008 年至 2009 年之間的全球總產能為此刻已經縮小了約20%。

  • So again the numbers of wafers per month that -- the installed capacity that the world allows is 20% less wafer per month.

    因此,每月的晶圓數量——世界允許的裝機容量每月減少 20%。

  • So that 20% down on capacity is now hitting the demand curve, which is -- has always been sustained.

    因此,現在產能下降 20% 正在觸及需求曲線,這一直是持續的。

  • We estimate, I mean, we think that the demand curve of DRAM has been -- sorry, of flash NAND flash has been about stable-ish to minus 3% to 5% 2009 to 2008.

    我們估計,我的意思是,我們認為 DRAM 的需求曲線 - 抱歉,閃存 NAND 閃存在 2009 年至 2008 年一直穩定在負 3% 至 5% 之間。

  • So this demand has not been shrinking as much as the capacity has, which again leads us to believe that the -- more than that -- this is why we start seeing some activity.

    因此,這種需求並沒有像產能那樣萎縮,這再次讓我們相信——不僅如此——這就是我們開始看到一些活動的原因。

  • But this, again, booking activity is clearly, as I said, not for immediate shipment.

    但是,正如我所說,預訂活動顯然不是立即發貨。

  • So there is not a full urgency.

    所以沒有完全的緊迫性。

  • The customers are still willing to wait a bit until they see the famous Christmas season.

    顧客們仍然願意稍等片刻,直到他們看到著名的聖誕節。

  • That will confirm that we are back into a growth situation, which again will lead us to resume shipments into the NAND sector.

    這將證實我們已回到增長狀態,這將再次導致我們恢復向 NAND 領域的出貨量。

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • Got it, thanks so much.

    明白了,非常感謝。

  • And my second question would be just on this assumption of the EUR450m I think you are saying is -- or I think you are still characterizing as an investment cycle that is really for technology purchases.

    我的第二個問題只是基於我認為你所說的 4.5 億歐元的假設 - 或者我認為你仍然將其描述為真正用於技術購買的投資週期。

  • And so I was wondering whether that means that your mix is still very much skewed towards immersion deliveries, partly because the NXT is kicking off in Q3.

    所以我想知道這是否意味著您的組合仍然非常傾向於沉浸式交付,部分原因是 NXT 將在第三季度開始。

  • But does that mean that your average selling price can be sustainably as high now, just at least over the near term as it was in Q2.

    但這是否意味著你的平均售價現在可以持續保持在高位,至少在短期內與第二季度一樣。

  • I know that will change once capacity comes back into the picture.

    我知道一旦容量恢復正常,情況就會改變。

  • But does that mean in the next couple of quarters it stays roughly around the same level, thanks?

    但這是否意味著在接下來的幾個季度中它大致保持在同一水平,謝謝?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Yes, that is correct.

    對,那是正確的。

  • Our famous EUR450m level is based on about 10 to 12 machines.

    我們著名的 4.5 億歐元水平是基於大約 10 到 12 台機器。

  • And as you can see you need to be around on average EUR25m to EUR30m to get to this level.

    正如您所見,要達到這個水平,平均需要 2500 萬到 3000 萬歐元。

  • So we do expect this to be sustained.

    所以我們確實希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

  • We expect even the ASP to start growing up a bit more as we -- our mix increases in NXT's versus XT.

    我們甚至希望 ASP 開始增長更多,因為我們 - 我們的 NXT 與 XT 的組合增加。

  • The XT ASP, as I said, is EUR25m to EUR30m the NXT will be in the EUR35m to EUR40m.

    正如我所說,XT ASP 為 2500 萬歐元至 3000 萬歐元,NXT 將在 3500 萬歐元至 4000 萬歐元之間。

  • So you will start seeing this ASP going up towards a sort of mix between XTs and NXTs into, I would say, Q4 and Q1, Q2 to next year

    所以你會開始看到這個 ASP 朝著 XT 和 NXT 之間的某種混合方向發展,我會說,Q4 和 Q1,Q2 到明年

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thanks much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question if from Mr.

    下一個問題是否來自先生。

  • Philip Scholte.

    菲利普·斯科爾特。

  • Please state your name, company, followed by your question.

    請說明您的姓名、公司,然後是您的問題。

  • Philip Scholte - Analyst

    Philip Scholte - Analyst

  • Yes, gentlemen, a short follow up on the NAND flash market.

    是的,先生們,關於 NAND 閃存市場的簡短跟進。

  • Does your guidance assume actually that you will see some orders kicking in already in the second half of this year from the NAND flash market, or could that be on top of your current sales guidance?

    您的指導是否實際上假設您會在今年下半年看到一些訂單從 NAND 閃存市場開始,或者這是否會超出您當前的銷售指導?

  • And the second question would be maybe a short indication on longer term margins.

    第二個問題可能是對長期利潤率的短期指示。

  • If I make the right calculation in terms of your cost savings kicking in I would say that your next cycle peak margins would be close to 30%.

    如果我根據您的成本節省做出正確的計算,我會說您的下一個週期峰值利潤率將接近 30%。

  • Is that something you could confirm?

    這是你可以確認的嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • I will leave the margin question to Peter.

    我將把保證金問題留給彼得。

  • Regarding the bookings, yes, there will be bookings of NAND into the second half.

    關於預訂,是的,下半年會有 NAND 的預訂。

  • Those bookings will translate into sales in 2010.

    這些預訂將轉化為 2010 年的銷售額。

  • And yes, there is potential for upside above EUR450m per quarter on the NAND, but then I would call it capacity drive.

    是的,NAND 有可能每季度超過 4.5 億歐元,但我會稱之為容量驅動。

  • So if I am right and the business recover and goes back to a curve of growth of units in flash then it will add up above EUR450m.

    因此,如果我是對的,並且業務恢復並回到閃存單位增長曲線,那麼它加起來將超過 4.5 億歐元。

  • Peter, regarding margin.

    彼得,關於保證金。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Clearly the -- what I would say the peak operating margin is, of course, very much dependant on what you believe the peak sales will be.

    顯然,我要說的最高營業利潤率當然在很大程度上取決於您認為最高銷售額會是多少。

  • But to make things easier for you, you can do your own calculations.

    但為了讓事情變得更容易,您可以自己計算。

  • We have a direct material margin target of 60% and we will get there.

    我們的直接材料利潤率目標為 60%,我們會實現的。

  • And so if you take the 60% direct material margin on a sales level that you regard the next peak, then you need to subtract per quarter, and I talk about quarterly cost, between EUR290m to EUR295m of cost per quarter.

    因此,如果你將 60% 的直接材料利潤率放在你認為下一個峰值的銷售水平上,那麼你需要每季度減去,我說的是季度成本,每季度的成本在 2.9 億歐元到 2.95 億歐元之間。

  • And that is true up to and including a sales level of around EUR800m.

    直到並包括約 8 億歐元的銷售額水平都是如此。

  • So when we are at EUR800m, 60% direct material margin between EUR290m, EUR295m cost level and you can make your own calculation which is actually quite easy.

    因此,當我們處於 8 億歐元時,60% 的直接材料利潤在 2.9 億歐元和 2.95 億歐元的成本水平之間,你可以自己計算,這實際上很容易。

  • And how much above the EUR800m you want to go is up to you.

    您想要超出 8 億歐元的多少取決於您。

  • That is your own insight.

    那是你自己的洞察力。

  • But then you can use those maths whereby cost levels will go up somewhat above that level, but that will be based on variable cost.

    但是你可以使用這些數學計算,成本水平會略高於該水平,但這將基於可變成本。

  • So we would need some more people but those would be flex.

    所以我們需要更多的人,但這些人是靈活的。

  • Now, how do we come to EUR290, EUR295m?

    現在,我們如何得出 290 歐元、2.95 億歐元?

  • We are currently at EUR275m which is just over EUR50m lower than where we were in the second half of 2008.

    我們目前的收入為 2.75 億歐元,比 2008 年下半年的水平低了 5000 萬多歐元。

  • We are focusing -- actually the cost reduction program has now confirmed that we will sustained 75% of that EUR50m per quarter going forward, even at EUR800m sales level, which would then bring our cost level down to that EUR290m maximum, EUR295m level.

    我們正在關注——實際上,成本削減計劃現在已經確認,即使在 8 億歐元的銷售額水平下,我們將在未來每季度維持 5000 萬歐元的 75%,這將使我們的成本水平降至 2.9 億歐元的最大值,即 2.95 億歐元的水平。

  • Now -- and if you run your numbers, and you would take, let's say, a peak sales level that's above EUR4b then you could get to the numbers that you just mentioned, that's pure mathematics.

    現在——如果你運行你的數字,假設你的銷售峰值水平高於 4b 歐元,那麼你可以獲得你剛才提到的數字,這就是純數學。

  • Philip Scholte - Analyst

    Philip Scholte - Analyst

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Right, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Sandeep Deshpande.

    桑迪普·德斯潘德。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Go ahead, sir.

    來吧,先生。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, this is Sandeep Deshpande at JP Morgan.

    是的,嗨,我是摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

  • Hi, Eric, just a question again regarding your famous model, given that semiconductor -- there is some incredubility among investors whether this semiconductor equipment market itself will grow in the next five years versus the past five years.

    嗨,埃里克,再問一個關於你著名模型的問題,考慮到半導體——投資者對這個半導體設備市場本身是否會在未來五年內比過去五年增長有所懷疑。

  • What does your model says in terms of if the NAND flash market is going to penetrate the notebook as well as server markets, what would be the size of the opportunity for you?

    如果 NAND 閃存市場要滲透到筆記本電腦和服務器市場,您的模型怎麼說,您的機會有多大?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Okay, hi Sandeep.

    好的,嗨,桑迪普。

  • Now we can use the term very famous, because your colleague said famous, now we go up.

    現在我們可以用very famous這個詞,因為你的同事說famous,現在我們上去。

  • And the very famous model is clearly confirming our target sales of EUR5b to say EUR6b in the next three to four years.

    非常有名的模型清楚地確認了我們在未來三到四年內達到 5 億歐元到 6 億歐元的目標銷售額。

  • And this is based on an average semiconductor unit growth of about 8% to 9% per year, so we will have to get back to that.

    這是基於平均每年約 8% 至 9% 的半導體單位增長率,因此我們將不得不回到這一點。

  • And in order to get back to about 8% to 9% if I remember by heart, we had a growth of NAND to be in the, I think it was, 25% to 30%.

    如果我記得的話,為了恢復到大約 8% 到 9%,我們的 NAND 增長了 25% 到 30%。

  • And that would correspond to NAND reaching -- sorry to solid state drive to reaching a total market share of 10% of all laptops.

    這將對應於 NAND 達到 - 抱歉固態驅動器達到所有筆記本電腦的總市場份額的 10%。

  • So if you do that and this happens in the next three to four years, then we get towards our EUR5b to EUR6b sales, which is based on a 70% market share, so you can recreate the total market from there.

    因此,如果您這樣做並且這種情況會在未來三到四年內發生,那麼我們的銷售額將達到 EUR5b 至 EUR6b,這是基於 70% 的市場份額,因此您可以從那裡重建整個市場。

  • So we are doing this simulation on a regular basis based on what we learn from the different technology mix, because as you say the simulation -- as you imagine the simulation tool is as good as the assumptions we've put in technology transition multiplied by the price of each of the tools.

    所以我們根據我們從不同技術組合中學到的東西定期進行這種模擬,因為正如你所說的模擬——正如你想像的那樣,模擬工具與我們在技術轉型中所做的假設一樣好乘以每個工具的價格。

  • And so if you -- what we are -- have today in the next three years or so is a significant growth of technology or double patterning of some sort, whether it is spacer double patterning or more sophisticated double patterning with a big usage of the NXT machine, which is this machine that offers double patterning to an overlay level of 3 nanometer, which is like half of what is happening today.

    因此,如果你——我們是——在未來三年左右的今天,技術或某種雙圖案的顯著增長,無論是間隔雙圖案還是更複雜的雙圖案,大量使用NXT 機器,這種機器可以提供 3 納米重疊水平的雙重圖案,這相當於今天發生的事情的一半。

  • We've confirmed from the customer that double patterning will require such aggressive overlay.

    我們已經從客戶那裡確認,雙重圖案化將需要如此積極的覆蓋。

  • We are the only one offering this type of overlay.

    我們是唯一一家提供這種覆蓋層的公司。

  • We therefore believe that we enable the market to do this technology -- aggressive technology, and it reinforces our market share.

    因此,我們相信我們使市場能夠採用這種技術——積極的技術,它加強了我們的市場份額。

  • So in conclusion the simulation tool is always telling us about the same results.

    所以總而言之,模擬工具總是告訴我們相同的結果。

  • If sometimes we change the assumptions on technologies we still come up with the same numbers, because at the end of the day it -- the lithographic is blessed by the fact that this technology transition requires an ASP increase.

    如果有時我們改變對技術的假設,我們仍然會得出相同的數字,因為歸根結底,光刻技術因這種技術轉型需要提高 ASP 而受到祝福。

  • So we are supported all the time by either the units or the ASP.

    所以我們一直得到單位或 ASP 的支持。

  • But to multiply -- if you multiply both you get to about the same level.

    但是要相乘——如果你把兩者相乘,你就會達到大致相同的水平。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Thanks, Eric.

    謝謝,埃里克。

  • Just one follow up, Peter, actually following up from the previous question if you look back at previous cycles for ASML, the cycle -- the two cycles in the 90s saw a peak EBIT margin for the Company at only about 20%, whereas in 90 -- 2007 you saw over 20%, 24% in 2006 EBIT margin.

    彼得,如果你回顧之前的 ASML 週期,這個週期——90 年代的兩個週期,公司的息稅前利潤率峰值僅為 20%,而在90 -- 2007 年你看到超過 20%,2006 年 24% 的息稅前利潤率。

  • Clearly a market share gain related thing associated with your revenues.

    顯然,與您的收入相關的市場份額增加相關。

  • So when you talk about this 30% EBIT margin you didn't give this figure yourself, but is this because of new cost cuts which you are implementing now or are you talking about that your market share -- it is a function of your market share which will be higher in this -- in the upcoming cycle?

    所以當你談論這個 30% 的息稅前利潤率時,你自己並沒有給出這個數字,但這是因為你現在正在實施新的成本削減,還是你在談論你的市場份額——這是你的市場的一個功能在即將到來的周期中,哪個份額會更高?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes, I think that is -- the latter is certainly true.

    是的,我認為是——後者當然是正確的。

  • When you talk about 2006/07 we had between 55% and 60%, I think we are now closer to 70%.

    當你談到 2006/07 年時,我們有 55% 到 60%,我認為我們現在接近 70%。

  • So that is sheer volume.

    所以這是絕對的數量。

  • And as you know there is always a high leverage in the income statement.

    如您所知,損益表中始終存在高槓桿。

  • Like I said if we are over our breakeven point then we would have 60% direct material margin.

    就像我說的,如果我們超過了盈虧平衡點,那麼我們將有 60% 的直接材料利潤率。

  • Until the -- we hit the EUR800m per quarter ceiling there is an incremental addition to the operating income line of 60% of every EUR100m, which is EUR60m for every EUR100m that you will add.

    在 - 我們達到每季度 8 億歐元的上限之前,每 1 億歐元的 60% 的營業收入線都會增加,即每增加 1 億歐元就增加 6000 萬歐元。

  • So that goes quick.

    所以進展很快。

  • So I think pure sales volume will indeed help, and it will be driven by what Eric said, the growth of the market and our 70% market share as compared to the previous cycle where it was indeed lower.

    所以我認為純銷量確實會有所幫助,這將受到埃里克所說的市場增長和我們 70% 的市場份額的推動,而上一個週期確實較低。

  • That is a big driver.

    這是一個很大的驅動力。

  • The other driver is the cost structure.

    另一個驅動因素是成本結構。

  • I think we are focusing on the 60% direct material margin which we were not at in previous cycles.

    我認為我們關注的是 60% 的直接材料利潤率,這在之前的周期中是沒有的。

  • Also the addition of more software related products driven by solutions we have in the holistic lithography space will also help.

    此外,由我們在整體光刻領域的解決方案驅動的更多軟件相關產品的添加也將有所幫助。

  • And those three things, so basically the new suite of products with more software-like margins, cost reductions that will come through plus the market share are drivers for the higher EBIT and EBIT margin as compared to the previous cycle.

    這三件事,基本上是新產品套件,具有更多類似軟件的利潤率,將通過的成本降低以及市場份額是與上一個週期相比更高的息稅前利潤和息稅前利潤率的驅動因素。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, Peter.

    非常感謝,彼得。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mrs.

    下一個問題來自於夫人。

  • Mehdi Hosseini.

    邁赫迪·侯賽尼。

  • Please state your company name followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • It's actually Mr.

    其實是先生

  • I have a question going back to your model, and I apologize if I am repeating the question, I joined in late.

    我有一個關於您的模型的問題,如果我重複這個問題,我深表歉意,我加入晚了。

  • With migration to 2x node for flash what kind of dollars of CapEx are we looking at?

    隨著閃存遷移到 2x 節點,我們正在尋找什麼樣的資本支出?

  • And I would also like to ask the same question about DRAM.

    我也想問同樣的關於 DRAM 的問題。

  • I do understand the $5b to $6b revenue opportunity several years from now.

    我確實了解幾年後 $5b 到 $6b 的收入機會。

  • But what happens with the flash and DRAM spending over the next 12 to 18 months?

    但未來 12 到 18 個月閃存和 DRAM 支出會怎樣?

  • Any color would be appreciated.

    任何顏色將不勝感激。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • You take me a bit aback, because I will have to answer you a bit scientifically, understanding or reminding myself of all those numbers.

    你讓我有點吃驚,因為我必須科學地回答你,理解或提醒自己所有這些數字。

  • I guess that in our model we probably have, I think, total conversion to another technology is probably in the order -- in flash is in the order of EUR1b to EUR1.5b.

    我想在我們的模型中,我認為,完全轉換到另一種技術的順序可能是——在閃存中,大約是 EUR1b 到 EUR1.5b。

  • But to be honest I would have to confirm that to you, I don't want to give you wrong numbers.

    但老實說,我必須向你確認,我不想給你錯誤的數字。

  • We are very disciplined as to what we call technology transitions which we define a certain way.

    對於我們以某種方式定義的所謂技術轉型,我們非常有紀律。

  • And then on top of that you have capacity adders.

    然後最重要的是你有容量加法器。

  • So I have to be cautious that the technology transition is like recession independent, which is why we call with very strong statement that it is for EUR50m.

    所以我必須謹慎,技術轉型就像獨立於經濟衰退一樣,這就是為什麼我們強烈聲明它是 5000 萬歐元。

  • We have seen this 10 times.

    我們已經看過 10 次了。

  • But the additional capacity built up on the nodes depend on the numbers of units that this node is going to go for, and that depends on the recession or the getting out of recession.

    但是在節點上建立的額外容量取決於該節點將要使用的單元數量,而這取決於經濟衰退或擺脫經濟衰退。

  • So I don't want to talk about that at this moment without coming back to my lawyer the (multiple speakers).

    所以我現在不想在沒有回到我的律師(多位發言者)面前談論這個。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • And also I think you need to remember that those transitions don't take place at -- all at the same time.

    而且我認為你需要記住,這些轉變不會同時發生。

  • Customers have different investment patterns so that is also spread over a certain period, like it was very clear in the DRAM space where you have leaders and you have the followers, that could be easily 18 -- 12 to 18 months in between.

    客戶有不同的投資模式,因此也分佈在一定時期內,就像在 DRAM 領域非常清楚,你有領導者和追隨者,這很容易在 18 到 12 到 18 個月之間。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Let me rephrase the question.

    讓我改一下問題。

  • Back in 2006/2007 DRAM spending was between $25b to $30b.

    早在 2006/2007 年,DRAM 支出就在 $25b 到 $30b 之間。

  • Given this technology migration do you think that over the next couple of years we are going to meet or exceed the 2006/2007 DRAM CapEx spending?

    考慮到這種技術遷移,您認為在接下來的幾年中我們是否會達到或超過 2006/2007 年 DRAM 資本支出支出?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • I think we will probably meet it but not for the same reason.

    我認為我們可能會遇到它,但不是出於同樣的原因。

  • In 2006/07 there was a clear overspend, every one of us was surprised if you remember, even our model didn't show that it would go as fast as this.

    2006/07 年有明顯的超支,如果你還記得的話,我們每個人都會感到驚訝,甚至我們的模型也沒有顯示它會像現在這樣快。

  • 2007 at the end was a -- probably 50% of the spend when compared to the, I would say, natural growth.

    與自然增長相比,2007 年底可能佔支出的 50%。

  • But, we are pretty optimistic as to DRAM re-build up of CapEx mainly because they are ramping now major technology difficulties.

    但是,我們對資本支出的 DRAM 重建非常樂觀,主要是因為它們現在正在解決主要的技術難題。

  • Their transition to 50 nanometer is not easy.

    他們向 50 納米的過渡並不容易。

  • This is being done by a current leader, two leaders.

    這是由現任領導人,兩位領導人完成的。

  • Those guys are now running towards 40 nanometer.

    那些傢伙現在正在向 40 納米邁進。

  • And they are discovering how complicated it is to do these new nodes.

    他們正在發現執行這些新節點有多麼複雜。

  • So they are ready to go for 40 and 30 type nanometer with double patterning until they transition to EUV, which again is an expensive transition.

    因此,他們準備採用雙圖案化的 40 和 30 型納米,直到他們過渡到 EUV,這又是一個昂貴的過渡。

  • So through the ASP, the node through the units we are going to reach the same type level of sales that we had in 2007.

    因此,通過 ASP,通過單元的節點,我們將達到與 2007 年相同的銷售水平。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Mr.

    你的下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Tim Arcuri.

    蒂姆·阿庫裡。

  • Please state your company name followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Timothy Arcuri, Citi, thanks.

    Timothy Arcuri,花旗銀行,謝謝。

  • How confident are you that you can sustain order growth through the end of the year if in fact utilization at foundries begins to roll over in Q4 as there are some signs that that will happen?

    如果事實上代工廠的利用率在第四季度開始回滾,您有多大信心可以在今年年底之前維持訂單增長,因為有一些跡象表明會發生這種情況?

  • Do you think that the upgrade cycle going on right now in DRAM and later on in NAND is that actually strong enough to sustain bookings growth in the fact of rolling over utilization at the foundries?

    您是否認為現在在 DRAM 中以及後來在 NAND 中進行的升級週期實際上足夠強大以維持代工廠滾動利用率這一事實的預訂增長?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Definitely.

    確實。

  • The current slight pickup that you saw in bookings have been done based with halfway through one foundry, and halfway through the second tier DRAMs.

    您在預訂中看到的當前輕微回升是基於一個代工廠的中途和第二層 DRAM 的中途完成的。

  • So the next batch of orders in the next six months will be the foundry business competitors catching up a bit, as well as the first tier DRAM and, as we have just discussed, NAND.

    因此,未來六個月的下一批訂單將是晶圓代工業務競爭對手的追趕,以及第一層 DRAM 和我們剛才討論的 NAND。

  • There's now -- there is therefore much more opportunities, more segments, which will pick up in the second half than the current ones that we have seen in May that were current bookings, a bit better.

    現在 - 因此有更多的機會,更多的細分市場,這將在下半年比我們在 5 月份看到的當前預訂更好一些。

  • So I would say the current bookings at EUR390m, EUR400m or something, EUR400m of system is in the low side of the equation as I could project in the second half.

    所以我想說,目前的預訂量為 3.9 億歐元、4 億歐元或 4 億歐元的系統處於等式的低端,正如我在下半年預計的那樣。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • And on top of that, Eric, if I may add, when you talk about foundry utilization, you have to realize that the leading edge utilization on 45 nanometers has been very, very high.

    最重要的是,埃里克,如果我可以補充一點,當你談到代工廠利用率時,你必須意識到 45 納米的前沿利用率非常非常高。

  • And then the introduction of the 40 nanometer to 45 nanometer products is now ramping, which the installed capacity at 45 nanometers is still extremely low as compared to total installed capacity.

    然後40納米到45納米產品的推出現在正在加速,45納米的裝機量與總裝機量相比仍然非常低。

  • So you could indeed see that if total installed capacity utilization would go down, doesn't mean at the leading edge, which is basically only, like Eric said, only one foundry, that hat would go down also.

    所以你確實可以看到,如果總裝機容量利用率下降,並不意味著處於領先地位,就像埃里克說的那樣,基本上只有一個代工廠,那頂帽子也會掉下來。

  • We'd be ramping introduction of new 40 nanometer to 45 nanometer products.

    我們將逐步推出新的 40 納米到 45 納米產品。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Agreed.

    同意。

  • I just asked because we've never before seen a cycle where utilization has kind of rolled back over and bookings have not rolled back over.

    我之所以問,是因為我們以前從未見過這樣的循環,即利用率有所回滾而預訂量卻沒有回滾。

  • So I'm just kind of wondering why that would be different this time (multiple speakers).

    所以我只是想知道為什麼這次會有所不同(多位發言人)。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • But only if you're shipping, Tim, the only thing we are shipping is 45 nanometer technology.

    但前提是你要出貨,蒂姆,我們唯一要出貨的是 45 納米技術。

  • We were not shipping any additional capacity.

    我們沒有運送任何額外的容量。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Just as a quick follow up, do you think that you're going to grow immersion backlog in both September and December quarters?

    快速跟進一下,您認為您會在 9 月和 12 月這兩個季度增加沉浸式積壓嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thanks a lot.

    多謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Kai Korschelt.

    下一個問題來自 Kai Korschelt。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Kai Korschelt - Analyst

    Kai Korschelt - Analyst

  • Yes, hi.

    是的,嗨。

  • It's Deutsche Bank.

    是德意志銀行。

  • My first question is, when you talk about the timing and magnitude, potentially of the 4X migration DRAM with the Korean vendors, what are they telling you, roughly, about those two aspects of it?

    我的第一個問題是,當您與韓國供應商談論 4X 遷移 DRAM 的時間和規模時,他們大致告訴您關於這兩個方面的內容是什麼?

  • And then I have a follow up, please.

    然後我有一個跟進,拜託。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • What I think we are getting is a lot of [float].

    我認為我們得到的是很多 [浮動]。

  • I'd say -- realize that it is strategically important for them to run this new node a bit earlier than planned for this obvious strategic reason at this moment, while the DRAM business is somehow consolidating in other terms, where the leaders have to show their colors.

    我會說 - 意識到目前出於這個明顯的戰略原因,他們比計劃早一點運行這個新節點在戰略上很重要,而 DRAM 業務在其他方面正在以某種方式整合,領導者必須展示他們的顏色。

  • So you are getting much more pressure than those guys saying, "Well, let's accelerate those nodes."

    所以你承受的壓力比那些說“好吧,讓我們加速這些節點”的人要大得多。

  • But as I said, the technology is now extremely complicated and therefore they need the latest technology.

    但正如我所說,現在的技術非常複雜,因此他們需要最新的技術。

  • So you get much more interest in our machinery, in our high-end machine and with the -- also holistic lithography which enables them to do those designs.

    因此,您對我們的機器、我們的高端機器以及使他們能夠進行這些設計的整體光刻技術更加感興趣。

  • So you see that happening.

    所以你看到了這種情況。

  • Clearly, there is going to be a second wave of activities with -- by them when they are finishing up the recipes.

    顯然,當他們完成食譜時,他們將進行第二波活動。

  • And depending on the success of the yield, we will have a different rate.

    並且根據收益率的成功率,我們會有不同的比率。

  • So in other terms, I expect a first wave of orders and then followed by another one.

    因此,換句話說,我預計會有第一波訂單,然後是另一波。

  • And again, the other one, we don't know yet how successful it will be.

    再一次,另一個,我們還不知道它會有多成功。

  • Kai Korschelt - Analyst

    Kai Korschelt - Analyst

  • That's great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Then my second question would be when do you expect government bailout-funded DRAM vendors, so to speak, in Japan and Taiwan to come back with orders?

    那麼我的第二個問題是,您預計政府救助資助的 DRAM 供應商,可以說,日本和台灣的供應商什麼時候能帶回訂單?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • That is also a very good question.

    這也是一個很好的問題。

  • So I would try to avoid any specifics.

    所以我會盡量避免任何細節。

  • Of course this is now customer data, but you have heard from the Japanese side that there is interest to invest the money they receive by the government into also 40 nanometer type technology.

    當然,這是現在的客戶數據,但您從日本方面聽說,他們有興趣將政府收到的資金投資到 40 納米技術中。

  • And that will be very much done very near in parallel with the first tier, so in other words, ramping into Q1 and Q3 of 2010.

    並且這將非常接近於與第一層平行完成,換句話說,進入 2010 年第一季度和第三季度。

  • Regarding the Taiwanese part, there are, of course, as you know, two Taiwanese parts.

    至於台灣部分,大家知道,當然有兩個台灣部分。

  • One is one aligned with the American vendor and the other one aligned with the Japanese vendor.

    一種是與美國供應商結盟,另一種是與日本供應商結盟。

  • The one aligned with the American vendor is, at this moment, planning a ramp of 50 nanometer, which is, I would say, more of a volume question rather than a technology question.

    目前,與美國供應商結盟的是計劃 50 納米的斜坡,我想說,這更多的是體積問題而不是技術問題。

  • The 4X at this moment is not yet in discussion.

    4X目前還沒有討論。

  • Kai Korschelt - Analyst

    Kai Korschelt - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • That's great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Mr.

    你的下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Francois Meunier.

    弗朗索瓦·默尼耶。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Francois Meunier - Analyst

    Francois Meunier - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It's actually Francois from Cazenove.

    實際上是嘉誠的弗朗索瓦。

  • A quick question on the margins.

    關於邊緣的一個快速問題。

  • I'm looking at your accounts in IFRS.

    我正在查看您在 IFRS 中的帳戶。

  • And I was wondering when you'd officially move to probably only IFRS reporting, maybe next year.

    我想知道你什麼時候正式轉向可能只有 IFRS 報告,也許是明年。

  • And do we have to model something like EUR25m or EUR30m of incremental EBIT per quarter, which it's probably linked, well a bit of options accounting, but also mostly to amortization of R&D.

    我們是否必須對每季度 2500 萬歐元或 3000 萬歐元的增量息稅前利潤進行建模,這可能與期權會計有關,但也主要與研發攤銷有關。

  • I know it's not cash, but probably on the headline numbers -- your headline numbers in the coming years will be around EUR100m to EUR120m higher at the EBIT line.

    我知道這不是現金,但可能是標題數字——未來幾年的標題數字將在息稅前利潤線高出 1 億至 1.2 億歐元左右。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think clearly we don't run the company on the accounting rules in a sense that we would just pick the most favorable one.

    我認為很明顯,我們不會根據會計規則運營公司,我們只會選擇最有利的規則。

  • I think we are on US GAAP for the simple reason that all our peers are on US GAAP.

    我認為我們採用美國公認會計原則的原因很簡單,因為我們所有的同行都採用美國公認會計原則。

  • And as you correctly pointed out, if we would go to IFRS, we would have to capitalize our perhaps a big part of our R&D spend.

    正如您正確指出的那樣,如果我們要採用 IFRS,我們將不得不將我們研發支出的很大一部分資本化。

  • And then amortize that over the expected lifetime, which would mean that our R&D costs in the IFRS income statement would be significantly lower than we currently show in the US GAAP.

    然後在預期生命週期內攤銷,這意味著我們在 IFRS 損益表中的研發成本將大大低於我們目前在美國 GAAP 中顯示的成本。

  • Now my personal view is that I don't think that is the right thing to do.

    現在我個人的看法是,我不認為這是正確的做法。

  • I think that given the uncertainty in this industry and IFRS profile it is good to expense the R&D.

    我認為,考慮到這個行業的不確定性和 IFRS 概況,最好將研發費用化。

  • So for this particular reason, but also for the reason of comparability with our US peers, we stay on US GAAP.

    因此,出於這個特殊原因,也出於與美國同行可比性的原因,我們繼續採用美國公認會計原則。

  • We have also a very large contingent of US shareholders.

    我們還有一大批美國股東。

  • So you are right that the EBIT is indeed higher because of the R&D capitalization and the resulting amortization that hits our R&D is -- will go up going forward to a certain level where the capitalization will be higher than the amortization.

    所以你是對的,EBIT 確實更高,因為研發資本化和由此產生的攤銷會影響我們的研發 - 將上升到資本化高於攤銷的某個水平。

  • Therefore, a certain period of time, we will then have a positive impact on the IFRS results.

    因此,在一定時期內,我們會對IFRS結果產生積極影響。

  • But that's not what we're focusing on.

    但這不是我們關注的重點。

  • Like I said, we're focusing on [book variability].

    就像我說的,我們專注於 [書籍可變性]。

  • And I think also from a Company point of view, it's better to get rid of the R&D spend and not take this in as an asset.

    而且我認為從公司的角度來看,最好擺脫研發支出而不是將其視為資產。

  • Francois Meunier - Analyst

    Francois Meunier - Analyst

  • Okay, good.

    好的。

  • So when you're talking about margins, peak margins, you're talking about US GAAP.

    所以當你談論利潤率、最高利潤率時,你就是在談論美國公認會計原則。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • US GAAP, yes.

    美國公認會計原則,是的。

  • Francois Meunier - Analyst

    Francois Meunier - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Now another question about -- you're talking about debooking in the presentation.

    現在另一個問題——你在演講中談論取消預訂。

  • I guess that's order cancellations.

    我想那是訂單取消。

  • Could you give us a bit more flavor about those EUR71m of orders which have been debooked?

    您能否詳細介紹一下已取消預訂的 7100 萬歐元訂單?

  • Where are they coming from?

    他們來自哪裡?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • This is something which is not an official debooking.

    這不是官方取消預訂。

  • It's basically a scrubbing of the backlog that we're doing.

    這基本上是清理我們正在做的積壓工作。

  • We're looking at certain orders where we think will the probability of those orders shipping fall outside the 12 month window.

    我們正在查看某些訂單,我們認為這些訂單發貨的可能性會落在 12 個月窗口之外。

  • If it falls out of the 12 month window, we take them out.

    如果它落在 12 個月的窗口之外,我們就會將它們移除。

  • So it's our own choice.

    所以這是我們自己的選擇。

  • And that has to do in fact with some orders that we received out of Taiwan where we said and Eric alluded to that the financing situation has not improved the government funding.

    事實上,這與我們從台灣收到的一些訂單有關,我們說和 Eric 暗示融資情況沒有改善政府資金。

  • We aren't seeing yet the results of that, so that's why we've taken a more conservative approach on backlog.

    我們還沒有看到結果,所以我們對積壓工作採取了更保守的方法。

  • Francois Meunier - Analyst

    Francois Meunier - Analyst

  • And that should be cleaned up probably by the end of this quarter.

    這可能會在本季度末清理乾淨。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes, or by the end of the year.

    是的,或者到年底。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • To be clear, these orders still exist and the customers are still there.

    需要明確的是,這些訂單仍然存在,客戶仍然存在。

  • It's just -- it's a delayed shipment and we want to be conservative as to measure this backlog.

    這只是 - 這是延遲發貨,我們希望保守地衡量這個積壓。

  • Francois Meunier - Analyst

    Francois Meunier - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Andrew Gardiner.

    安德魯·加德納。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

    下午好。

  • Barclays Capital.

    巴克萊資本。

  • I'd just like a little more detail on the NAND flash business, if you could.

    如果可以的話,我想更詳細地介紹一下 NAND 閃存業務。

  • You've spoken quite confidently about DRAM NXT tools and the interest from the NAND side of the space there and in particular regarding the move to solid-state drives and that $1 per gig target.

    您已經非常自信地談到了 DRAM NXT 工具以及該領域 NAND 方面的興趣,特別是關於轉向固態驅動器和每演出 1 美元的目標。

  • I was just wondering if the lead customers or the lead vendors on that side of things are giving you any indication of when they might like to start shipping at those kinds of levels and therefore what kind of confidence you have in terms of the potential of the ramp.

    我只是想知道這方面的主要客戶或主要供應商是否給您任何指示,表明他們可能希望何時開始以這種水平出貨,因此您對這種水平的潛力有什麼樣的信心坡道。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • No, unfortunately I will be disappointing you.

    不,不幸的是我會讓你失望。

  • We're not a specialist of that.

    我們不是這方面的專家。

  • So I gave you those pieces of data mainly based on editorial comments from our customers.

    所以我主要根據客戶的編輯評論給你這些數據。

  • But they do not share with us a product strategy.

    但他們沒有與我們分享產品策略。

  • That is they just kick us because we're not shipping technology fast enough.

    那就是他們踢我們是因為我們的技術發展速度不夠快。

  • And so therefore we know they want the machine and we try to make logic as why they want this and why they drive technology so hard..

    因此,我們知道他們想要這台機器,我們試圖讓邏輯解釋為什麼他們想要這個以及為什麼他們如此努力地推動技術......

  • But I can't really tell you much more than that.

    但我真的不能告訴你更多。

  • The 10% market share target is a well-known target by most of those NAND players, as you have heard.

    如您所知,10% 的市場份額目標是大多數 NAND 廠商眾所周知的目標。

  • And I now understand also that they think they will reach that type of 10% range with a target price of X, I don't remember for a big D drive of 60 gig and 120 gig.

    我現在也明白,他們認為他們會以 X 的目標價格達到 10% 的範圍,我不記得有 60 gig 和 120 gig 的大 D 驅動器。

  • And all this will be based on 20 nanometer type technology.

    而這一切都將基於 20 納米類型的技術。

  • But again, don't look at that especially to the application.

    但同樣,不要特別關注應用程序。

  • I can't read that.

    我看不懂。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Perhaps on a slightly different angle as relates to the customers then.

    也許與當時的客戶有關的角度略有不同。

  • You highlighted in the presentation keeping capacity in your system or in manufacturing side at around the EUR800m revenue level on a quarterly basis.

    您在演示文稿中強調,您的系統或製造方面的產能每季度保持在 8 億歐元左右的收入水平。

  • Clearly we're quite a ways below that.

    顯然,我們遠遠低於這個水平。

  • But I presume you wouldn't be keeping it at that kind of level if, say, over the next three, four, five quarters you didn't think you could get somewhere close to that.

    但我認為,如果在接下來的三個、四個、五個季度中你認為你無法接近那個水平,你就不會將其保持在那種水平。

  • So what is your thinking around that sort of thing at the moment?

    那麼你現在對這類事情有什麼想法?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Well, it is a very important question because we are asking ourselves that question to manage the company, how fast a move back to EUR800m or more can happen.

    嗯,這是一個非常重要的問題,因為我們問自己這個問題來管理公司,回到 8 億歐元或更多的速度有多快。

  • And the message that I gave in the speech at the beginning was as follows.

    我在一開始的演講中傳達的信息如下。

  • It says, well, we have a base of EUR450m.

    它說,嗯,我們有 4.5 億歐元的基礎。

  • We think that's the base.

    我們認為這是基礎。

  • It carried us for a long time.

    它承載了我們很長一段時間。

  • And on top of it will be a capacity buy.

    最重要的是容量購買。

  • And those capacity buys could happen within a quarter.

    這些產能購買可能會在一個季度內發生。

  • We can get a surprise set of orders.

    我們可以獲得一組驚喜訂單。

  • That is definitely -- we could definitely will be towards EUR800m, so in a flash.

    這絕對是 - 我們肯定會達到 8 億歐元,所以瞬間。

  • So we absolutely need to have this capacity of EUR800m and above in view of that.

    因此,鑑於此,我們絕對需要擁有 8 億歐元及以上的產能。

  • And the reason we think it can be very quick is that first of all, we just had one or two flashes of that already where we have had questions about shipping within a lead time or in fact within six months specifically certain numbers are tools for capacity reasons.

    我們認為它可以非常快的原因是,首先,我們已經有過一兩次閃光,我們已經對在交貨時間內或實際上在六個月內發貨有疑問,特別是某些數字是容量的工具原因。

  • And we know why these things happen with a short lead time is there is no excess capacity anymore.

    我們知道為什麼這些事情會在很短的交貨時間內發生,因為不再有過剩產能。

  • It seems that most of our customers have reached a level of utilization, in particular in the areas where it's hot, which is in new technology, which is too high for taking upside.

    似乎我們的大多數客戶都達到了一定的利用率水平,特別是在熱門領域,新技術領域,這對於上升空間來說太高了。

  • And therefore, if there is anything that happens in the industry in the world where you go back to level of sales of 2008, which would be 150b of units, if you go back to that level, we're at 130b units, then you will go to EUR800m very quick.

    因此,如果您回到 2008 年的銷售水平,即 150b 單位,如果您回到那個水平,我們將達到 130b 單位,那麼如果世界上的行業發生任何事情,那麼您很快就會達到 8 億歐元。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Didier Scemama.

    迪迪埃·施瑪瑪。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

    下午好。

  • It's RBS.

    是蘇格蘭皇家銀行。

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您提出我的問題。

  • I just have a couple of question, starting with the provisions that you took again on obsolete inventories in the course.

    我有幾個問題,首先是您在課程中再次採用過時庫存的規定。

  • If you could just indicate whether you've booked any of that in the cost of sales in the quarter because if I would add back this EUR43m, your gross margins would be closer to 28% rather than 12.5%.

    如果你能指出你是否已經在本季度的銷售成本中記入了其中的任何一項,因為如果我將這 4300 萬歐元加回去,你的毛利率將接近 28%,而不是 12.5%。

  • So I was just wondering where you booked that in the P&L and whether that has come in already.

    所以我只是想知道你在 P&L 中在哪裡預訂了它,它是否已經進來了。

  • After my first question, I've got a quick follow-up.

    在我的第一個問題之後,我得到了一個快速的跟進。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • Yes, as you have seen, not only looking at this quarter, but at the previous quarters, we always book a certain level of provisioning.

    是的,正如您所看到的,不僅是本季度,而且在前幾個季度,我們總是預訂一定水平的供應。

  • So taking it completely out would be great because it means we would have absolutely zero obsolescence waste in this Company, which is not realistic.

    所以把它完全去掉會很棒,因為這意味著我們公司的過時浪費絕對為零,這是不現實的。

  • But you are right.

    但你是對的。

  • We have a conservative policy.

    我們有一個保守的政策。

  • We are taking provisioning on some of the R&D that we are doing.

    我們正在對我們正在進行的一些研發進行準備。

  • We are taking provisioning also on some of the inventories that we are having against current low level of sales that we are seeing.

    我們還針對我們目前看到的低銷售水平對我們擁有的一些庫存進行了撥備。

  • So we -- yes, we have a conservative policy there.

    所以我們 - 是的,我們在那裡有一個保守的政策。

  • You could say, "Well if you would have been more aggressive, would the gross margin have been higher?" Yes, it would have been higher.

    你可以說,“好吧,如果你更積極一些,毛利率會更高嗎?”是的,它會更高。

  • How much is difficult to say because we are consistent in the application of this policy.

    多少很難說,因為我們在這個政策的應用上是一致的。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • That's quite interesting, thanks.

    這很有趣,謝謝。

  • And if I basically summarize what we've heard today, are we talking about both halves back on the envelope peak EPS of EUR2 on US GAAP.

    如果我基本上總結一下我們今天聽到的內容,我們是否正在談論美國公認會計原則下 2 歐元的信封峰值 EPS 的兩半。

  • If I add that EUR120m that Francois was talking about on the IFRS, I get another EUR0.20.

    如果我加上 Francois 在 IFRS 上談論的 1.2 億歐元,我又得到 0.20 歐元。

  • And if take into account the provisioning that you have on probably capacity related tools that will come in in the course of 2010, you could easily see another 5% at least or 5 points at least on gross margins once you reverse those provisions.

    如果考慮到 2010 年期間可能會出現的容量相關工具的準備金,一旦撤銷這些準備金,您可以很容易地看到毛利率至少再增加 5% 或至少 5 個百分點。

  • Your EBIT margins could see quite spectacularly above 30%, in fact, in the next peak.

    事實上,在下一個高峰期,您的息稅前利潤率可能會驚人地超過 30%。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP and CFO

  • I think you just wrote the base for your own report.

    我認為您只是為自己的報告編寫了基礎。

  • It's an interesting following line of conclusions, but we cannot comment of course on that.

    這是一個有趣的後續結論,但我們當然不能對此發表評論。

  • I think you can probably write something quite interesting on that piece.

    我想你可能會在那篇文章上寫一些非常有趣的東西。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Many thanks.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Jerome Ramel.

    杰羅姆·拉梅爾。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Jerome Ramel - Analyst

    Jerome Ramel - Analyst

  • Yes, good afternoon.

    是的,下午好。

  • Jerome Ramel from BNP Paribas.

    法國巴黎銀行的杰羅姆拉梅爾。

  • First question, do you expect more bankruptcy in the DRAM, among DRAM players?

    第一個問題,您是否預計 DRAM 廠商中會有更多破產?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • There is a possibility that in Taiwan that one or two players would go.

    有可能在台灣會有一兩個球員去。

  • And the understanding that we have is that if that were the case, the assets may be transferred to one of the four key players that remain at this moment in this industry.

    我們的理解是,如果是這種情況,資產可能會轉移到目前仍留在該行業的四個主要參與者之一。

  • And as you know, the four key players are at this moment considered the survivors of the current consolidation.

    如您所知,這四位主要參與者目前被視為當前整合的倖存者。

  • And again, the others are going to be aligned to one of the four players.

    再一次,其他人將與四名球員中的一名保持一致。

  • They can be aligned with a contract of some sort or they can be aligned just because their assets have been transferred after bankruptcy.

    他們可以與某種合同保持一致,也可以僅僅因為他們的資產在破產後被轉移而保持一致。

  • Either/or doesn't change much in what exactly is happening, which I repeat is four key players, four large companies are now going to go for control of this business.

    到底發生了什麼,或者/或者並沒有太大變化,我要重複的是四個關鍵參與者,四家大公司現在將控制這項業務。

  • Jerome Ramel - Analyst

    Jerome Ramel - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And just one follow-up concerning the NAND.

    並且只是關於 NAND 的後續行動。

  • How do you see the cost curve of your NAND customers going forward, because in the past, the NAND guys were able to cut the costs by roughly 50% per year?

    您如何看待您的 NAND 客戶未來的成本曲線,因為在過去,NAND 人員能夠每年削減大約 50% 的成本?

  • And it seems that it is slowing down to roughly 30% per year with [dual] exposure too, so requiring more (inaudible) steps for the 32 nanometer node.

    而且它似乎也在[雙重]曝光下放慢到每年大約 30%,因此 32 納米節點需要更多(聽不清)步驟。

  • It seems actually that the cost curve decline for the NAND players will reduce significantly compared to what happened over the last five years.

    實際上,與過去五年發生的情況相比,NAND 廠商的成本曲線下降將顯著減少。

  • So how do you see that going forward?

    那麼你如何看待未來的發展?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • This is a very complicated question because (inaudible) message.

    這是一個非常複雜的問題,因為(聽不清)消息。

  • Cost is a factor of volume and excess capacity.

    成本是數量和產能過剩的一個因素。

  • So obviously, the NAND guys have been burned significantly by an excess capacity due to the fact that there were too many players and too much expectation.

    很明顯,由於參與者太多和期望太高,NAND 廠商已經被產能過剩嚴重燒毀。

  • So now it seems that the players have agreed to be less aggressive than DRAM guys.

    所以現在看來,玩家們已經同意不如 DRAM 傢伙激進。

  • So they have been more selective as to their buildup of capacity.

    因此,他們在能力建設方面更具選擇性。

  • And I explained that in fact we see a shrinking of capacity more than anything else.

    我解釋說,實際上我們看到容量縮減比什麼都重要。

  • And we do not see crazy investment, we only see technology investment.

    而我們看不到瘋狂的投資,我們只看到技術投資。

  • So we therefore expect the installed base to correspond to the demand and therefore, by conclusion, the cost per chip is going to become -- the full cost per chip is going to be under control.

    因此,我們因此預計安裝基礎與需求相對應,因此,總的來說,每個芯片的成本將變得 - 每個芯片的全部成本將受到控制。

  • Further to that, the design of the chips allows a shrink level which on paper has justified the price points of -- that would be allowing new applications like the solid state drive.

    此外,芯片的設計允許縮小水平,這在紙面上證明了價格點的合理性——這將允許固態驅動器等新應用。

  • So those guys seems at this moment to be under control of their cost curve.

    所以這些人此刻似乎在控制他們的成本曲線。

  • As you said yourself, technology goes down, help them to go down.

    正如你自己所說,技術下降,幫助他們下降。

  • But mainly, mainly, mainly, they seem to be investing to demand.

    但主要,主要,主要是,他們似乎是在根據需求進行投資。

  • They don't invest to market share, if you know what I mean.

    他們不投資市場份額,如果你明白我的意思。

  • Jerome Ramel - Analyst

    Jerome Ramel - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Mr.

    下一個問題來自於先生。

  • Jonathan Crossfield.

    喬納森·克羅斯菲爾德。

  • Please state your company name, followed by your question.

    請說明您的公司名稱,然後是您的問題。

  • Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

    Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • Yes, it's Bank of America, Merrill Lynch.

    是的,它是美國銀行,美林證券。

  • I guess my first question would just be on the longer term strategy, which is that as you see some margin expansion going forward and we're hearing increasingly that your competitors are struggling or falling further behind.

    我想我的第一個問題只是關於長期戰略,那就是當你看到未來利潤率有所擴張時,我們越來越多地聽到你的競爭對手正在苦苦掙扎或進一步落後。

  • What do you see as the key challenges for ASML on the five-year view to maintain customer relationships as the competitive environment becomes potentially more beneficial to you?

    隨著競爭環境變得對您更有利,從五年的角度來看,您認為 ASML 在維護客戶關係方面面臨的主要挑戰是什麼?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • Well, it is a very insightful question.

    好吧,這是一個非常有見地的問題。

  • If you haven't guessed it, in fact, the last six months for us has been a reinforcement of what you said, which is that our technology investment or over-investment, I would say, is starting to pay.

    如果你沒有猜到的話,事實上,過去六個月對我們來說一直在強化你所說的,即我們的技術投資或過度投資,我會說,開始產生回報。

  • The technologies requirements are very, very strong, concerning to the customers.

    技術要求非常非常強,與客戶有關。

  • And now we're coming up with products which are absolutely ahead of our competition, whether it is in double patterning or it is in EUV.

    現在我們正在開發絕對領先於我們競爭對手的產品,無論是雙圖案還是 EUV。

  • So this creates an aspiration by every customer to have a significant strategic relationship with us.

    因此,這讓每個客戶都渴望與我們建立重要的戰略關係。

  • And a strategic relationship is usually a better thing than a commodity-type relationship.

    戰略關係通常比商品型關係更好。

  • So we are thrilled by this way.

    所以我們對這種方式感到興奮。

  • But it's a beginning and now we have to execute on it.

    但這是一個開始,現在我們必須執行它。

  • And execute means making sure the machine works and making sure we do not bring any fear to our customers that we will take advantage when the situation is better.

    執行意味著確保機器正常工作,並確保我們不會讓客戶擔心我們會在情況好轉時利用它。

  • So we have to be -- wait on our tools to offer them the technology but also the best cost.

    所以我們必須 - 等待我們的工具為他們提供技術和最佳成本。

  • And you've heard Peter spending time explaining that we want our cost structure to be extremely under control.

    你聽說過彼得花時間解釋我們希望我們的成本結構得到極度控制。

  • And you've heard him say we don't want to be going for any inflation above the current recession level cost more than say 10%.

    你聽他說過,我們不想讓任何高於當前衰退水平的通脹成本超過 10%。

  • We can see that we will offer to our customers a cost and which also allows us to improve a little bit our margin.

    我們可以看到,我們將向客戶提供成本,這也使我們能夠稍微提高利潤率。

  • The big negative, the concern I have as usual in (inaudible), we are a euro-based company.

    最大的負面影響是我一如既往地擔心(聽不清),我們是一家以歐元為基礎的公司。

  • And therefore, if the macroeconomic trends make the euro "overvalued" due to financial imbalances in the world, we will be having not such an easy time to enrich our margin.

    因此,如果宏觀經濟趨勢導致歐元因世界金融失衡而“被高估”,我們將沒有那麼容易的時間來增加我們的利潤。

  • That is our concern obviously.

    這顯然是我們關心的問題。

  • We've been able to live through this in the past five years.

    在過去的五年裡,我們已經能夠度過難關。

  • I think we've -- as I think you remember, I mentioned the fact that all competitors have been privileged by a depreciation of the yen by about 60% in four years or something.

    我想我們已經 - 正如我想你記得的那樣,我提到了一個事實,即所有競爭對手都因日元在四年內貶值約 60% 而享有特權。

  • We've been able to manage that by still improving our margin and market share.

    我們已經能夠通過提高我們的利潤率和市場份額來管理這一點。

  • But we would appreciate that it doesn't continue in that sense and that the euro stabilizes or weakens.

    但我們希望它不會在這種意義上繼續下去,並且歐元穩定或走弱。

  • It would be good if the euro didn't get too strong.

    如果歐元不要變得太強就好了。

  • Then we'll come back a bit this quarter and consider this a bit of a problem.

    然後我們將在本季度回過頭來考慮一下這個問題。

  • Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

    Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, Eric.

    非常感謝,埃里克。

  • And just as a follow-up perhaps, could you talk a little bit about the impact of FlexRay and the baseline or announcements that came out yesterday on the financials, on a one or two-year view or how should we think about that as to margin effect and pricing.

    也許作為後續行動,您能否從一年或兩年的角度談談 FlexRay 的影響以及昨天發布的基線或公告對財務的影響,或者我們應該如何考慮這一點邊際效應和定價。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO, Chairman

  • I will voluntarily remain conceptual because the whole holistic lithography, which comes from our acquisition of Brion, is mixed, meaning two, three things.

    我將自願保持概念性,因為我們收購 Brion 的整個整體光刻是混合的,意味著兩三件事。

  • It's mixed into the price of our machines, which do not -- that we do not discount as we used to.

    它混合在我們機器的價格中,而我們沒有像過去那樣打折。

  • So we strengthen our margins through a stronger pricing where we say, "No, if there is -- if that machine is compatible or ports to the software of Brion, then this customer you cannot get the same discount."

    因此,我們通過更強有力的定價來提高我們的利潤率,我們說,“不,如果有——如果那台機器兼容或移植到 Brion 的軟件,那麼這個客戶你就不能得到同樣的折扣。”

  • The second point is that we are selling, of course, Brion's stuff and our majority stuff, etc., so there's a bit of sales which at this moment is still under EUR100m.

    第二點是,我們當然在銷售 Brion 的產品和我們的多數產品等,所以目前有一些銷售額仍低於 1 億歐元。

  • But it is -- starts to be visible.

    但它是 - 開始可見。

  • And the third aspect is it makes our machines more competitive.

    第三個方面是它使我們的機器更具競爭力。

  • These options, like as you said, the new illuminator, which is a completely pixelized illuminator, makes this machine another level of our competition.

    這些選項,就像你說的,新的照明器,它是一個完全像素化的照明器,使這台機器成為我們競爭的另一個層次。

  • So these three factors will -- are currently reinforcing the margin.

    所以這三個因素將 - 目前正在加強利潤率。

  • And this is why Peter, was starting to say, "Well, we are really going to try to improve our material margin by 2 to 3 or 4 points." And part of it is included into this value generation thing.

    這就是為什麼彼得開始說,“好吧,我們真的要努力將我們的材料利潤率提高 2 到 3 或 4 個百分點。”其中一部分包含在這個價值生成的東西中。

  • But again, it's hidden in those three aspects.

    但同樣,它隱藏在這三個方面。

  • Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

    Jonathan Crossfield - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

    Craig DeYoung - VP of IR and Corporate Communications

  • Ladies and gentlemen, I think our time is expired.

    女士們,先生們,我想我們的時間到了。

  • So if you were unable to get through on this call, we apologize for that.

    因此,如果您未能接通此電話,我們深表歉意。

  • And if you still have questions, feel free to contact ASML's Investor Relations Department with those questions.

    如果您仍有疑問,請隨時聯繫 ASML 的投資者關係部提出這些問題。

  • And now, Operator, I'll ask that you close out the call.

    現在,接線員,我會要求你結束通話。

  • And I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today.

    我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

  • We look forward to talking to you through the quarter, and look forward to talking to you again at the end of next quarter.

    我們期待在本季度與您交談,並期待在下個季度末再次與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2009 second quarter results conference call.

    女士們,先生們,ASML 2009 年第二季度業績電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for participating.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may disconnect now.

    您現在可以斷開連接。