艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2009 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好，早上好。

This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at ASML.

我是 ASML 投資者關係和企業傳播部副總裁 Craig DeYoung。

I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast.

歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網絡直播。

As the operator mentioned, the subject of today's call is ASML's 2009 first quarter results.

正如運營商所說，今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2009年第一季度的業績。

Hosting today's call are Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO, and Peter Wennink, ASML's CFO.

ASML 首席執行官 Eric Meurice 和 ASML 首席財務官 Peter Wennink 主持了今天的電話會議。

At this time, I'd like to draw your attention to our Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and fourth quarter results presentation, both of which you can find on our webcast at www.asml.com.

此時，我想提請您注意我們在今天的新聞稿和第四季度業績介紹中包含的安全港聲明，您可以在我們的網絡廣播 www.asml.com 上找到這兩者。

This statement will cover today's call, as well as today's ASML publications.

這份聲明將涵蓋今天的電話會議以及今天的 ASML 出版物。

The length of the call will be 60 minutes.

通話時長為 60 分鐘。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr.

現在，我想把電話轉給先生。

Meurice for a brief introduction.

默里斯作簡要介紹。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Good afternoon and good morning.

下午好，早上好。

Thank you all for attending our Q1 2009 results conference call.

感謝大家參加我們的 2009 年第一季度業績電話會議。

Peter and I as usual would like to provide you and review some commentary on the quarter before we open up for questions.

彼得和我像往常一樣想在我們開始提問之前向您提供並回顧本季度的一些評論。

Peter will start with a review of our performance in Q1 with added comments as to the short-term outlook.

Peter 將首先回顧我們在第一季度的業績，並對短期前景發表更多評論。

And I will conclude -- complete the introduction with some further details on our near-term strategy.

我將總結 - 完成介紹，並提供有關我們近期戰略的更多細節。

So, following this introduction we will then open the call to questions.

因此，在介紹之後，我們將開始提問。

So Peter, please.

彼得，請。

Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你，埃里克。

And welcome to everyone.

歡迎大家。

First of all, I would like to review some of the events of the last quarter, as well as some details on our first quarter results.

首先，我想回顧一下上個季度的一些事件，以及我們第一季度業績的一些細節。

The collapse of the semiconductor equipment demand continued in the first quarter due to the reduced end demand for semiconductor devices and the associated industry response of utilization reductions, capacity adjustments and inventory corrections.

由於對半導體設備的終端需求減少以及相關行業對利用率降低、產能調整和庫存修正的反應，第一季度半導體設備需求持續下滑。

In spite of these exceptional economic circumstances, we were able to maintain our business focus in generating cash, while continuing our high-level of R&D commitment by creating and delivering all intended new products.

儘管存在這些特殊的經濟環境，我們仍然能夠保持我們的業務重點是產生現金，同時通過創造和交付所有預期的新產品來繼續我們的高水平研發承諾。

Our first quarter sales of EUR184 million were within our guided range.

我們第一季度的銷售額為 1.84 億歐元，在我們的指導範圍內。

We shipped a total of 11 systems, 7 of which were new and 4 used.

我們總共運送了 11 個系統，其中 7 個是新的，4 個是二手的。

Amongst the new systems there was only one immersion tool causing a moderate new system ASP of EUR13.8 million, with the ASP of all systems being EUR9.2 million.

在新系統中，只有一種浸入式工具導致新系統平均售價為 1380 萬歐元，所有系統的平均售價為 920 萬歐元。

Limited purchases of performance upgrade options for systems installed in the field and reduced tool utilization impacted our service revenues this quarter as our total net service and field options revenues came in at around EUR83 million.

為現場安裝的系統購買有限的性能升級選項以及工具利用率的降低影響了本季度我們的服務收入，因為我們的總淨服務和現場選項收入約為 8300 萬歐元。

Unit orders in Q1 remained low at 8 systems, but provided the book-to-bill in value terms of about 2, with a net bookings total of EUR207 million.

第一季度的單位訂單仍然很低，只有 8 個系統，但按價值計算，訂單出貨比約為 2 個，淨預訂總額為 2.07 億歐元。

The net average sales price of orders booked was EUR25.8 million, including 7 immersion systems.

預訂訂單的淨平均銷售價格為 2580 萬歐元，包括 7 個浸入式系統。

This leaves our order backlog as of March 31st at EUR853 million, with a total of 38 systems, 25 of which are immersion.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的訂單積壓量為 8.53 億歐元，共有 38 個系統，其中 25 個是沉浸式系統。

The Company's first quarter gross margin was close to 7%, which was the direct result of the extremely low level of sales.

公司一季度毛利率接近7%，這是銷售水平極低的直接結果。

We maintained our focus on R&D with a spend of EUR118 million, which is a 7% efficiency reduction from the fourth quarter of 2008, with SG&A expenses coming in at EUR41 million.

我們繼續專注於研發，支出為 1.18 億歐元，與 2008 年第四季度相比效率降低了 7%，SG&A 支出為 4100 萬歐元。

That's a 12% reduction from the fourth quarter last year, and a 30% reduction as compared to the run rate in the middle of last year.

這比去年第四季度減少了 12%，與去年年中的運行率相比減少了 30%。

Net cash from operations was EUR82 million.

運營產生的現金淨額為 8200 萬歐元。

Cash flows were positively impacted by management of our working capital and the cost structure, which was offset somewhat by a lengthening in receivable collection periods and continued capital expenditure for the completion of the new manufacturing facility.

我們的營運資金和成本結構的管理對現金流產生了積極影響，這在一定程度上被應收賬款回收期的延長和新製造設施完工的持續資本支出所抵消。

This facility is needed for future generations of lithography, most notably EUV.

未來幾代光刻技術（尤其是 EUV）需要此設施。

We ended the quarter with EUR1.15 billion in cash, an increase as expected over the fourth quarter of last year.

我們在本季度結束時擁有 11.5 億歐元現金，與去年第四季度相比有所增長。

To support the financing of our activities in EUV development and the production ramp, ASML has signed a EUR200 million loan facility with the European Investment Bank.

為了支持我們在 EUV 開發和量產升級方面的活動融資，ASML 與歐洲投資銀行簽署了 2 億歐元的貸款協議。

This floating rate facility can be drawn on in tranches within the next 18 months and is repayable in annual installments after 4 years with the final payment 7 years after drawdown.

該浮動利率貸款可在未來 18 個月內分批使用，並可在 4 年後按年分期償還，最終付款將在提取後 7 年進行。

As far as for our outlook, although we do not expect to see a full-blown recovery at this time, we are beginning to see the first sign of the return of lithography technology buys.

就我們的前景而言，雖然我們預計此時不會出現全面復甦，但我們開始看到光刻技術購買回歸的第一個跡象。

It is most evident in the area of 45 nanometer technology transitions of our Foundry customers, and the 5X nanometer transition of our DRAM customers.

這在 Foundry 客戶的 45 納米技術轉型和 DRAM 客戶的 5X 納米技術轉型領域最為明顯。

The fact that some of our customers have been able to access the capital markets may also prove to be helpful.

我們的一些客戶已經能夠進入資本市場這一事實也可能被證明是有幫助的。

This cautious returned to some level of technology buys enables the shrink roadmaps as defined by our different customer segments.

這種對某種程度的技術購買的謹慎回歸使得我們不同客戶群定義的縮小路線圖成為可能。

The litho spend to support these roadmaps is modeled at the quarterly revenue level of between EUR4 million and EUR5 million, which could potentially be reached somewhere in the second half of this year.

支持這些路線圖的光刻支出以 400 萬至 500 萬歐元的季度收入水平為模型，這可能會在今年下半年的某個時間達到。

In this respect, our Q2 immersion bookings and the current order [quote] activity gives us some level of comfort.

在這方面，我們第二季度的沉浸式預訂和當前的訂單 [quote] 活動給了我們一定程度的安慰。

We expect Q2 2009 net sales to fall in a range of EUR210 million to EUR230 million, with gross margins expected at around 9%; again, reflecting a very low level of sales level.

我們預計 2009 年第二季度淨銷售額將下降至 2.1 億至 2.3 億歐元之間，毛利率預計在 9% 左右；再次反映出非常低的銷售水平。

R&D and SG&A expenses are again expected to be at the EUR118 million and EUR41 million, respectively.

研發和 SG&A 費用預計再次分別為 1.18 億歐元和 4100 萬歐元。

We expect cash from operations and investments to be neutral over the first half of 2009.

我們預計 2009 年上半年來自運營和投資的現金將保持中性。

And as a closing remark, we would like to inform you that our proposal presented at our 2009 general meeting of shareholders to declare a dividend of EUR0.20 per share, which is approximately EUR86 million.

作為結束語，我們想通知您，我們在 2009 年股東大會上提出了宣派每股 0.20 歐元股息的提議，這大約是 8600 萬歐元。

More than (inaudible) of that that has meanwhile been paid.

超過（聽不清）同時支付的費用。

And now, I'd like to turn it back over to Eric for more on our strategy for the coming quarters.

現在，我想把它轉回給埃里克，了解更多關於我們未來幾個季度的戰略。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

So, indeed, Q1 provided an extremely challenging environment for all semiconductor capital equipment companies, not only ASML.

因此，事實上，第一季度為所有半導體資本設備公司提供了一個極具挑戰性的環境，而不僅僅是 ASML。

Our customers have froze new equipment purchases.

我們的客戶已經凍結了新設備的採購。

They basically literally awaited for market directions as to their own end demand, let their inventory of semiconductors correct to current demand level, optimized their installed base usage, either idling or transferring some of the capacity to a more aggressive set of processing layers, of nodes which, although not very, very efficient was possible in view of the low overall capacity utilization rates.

他們基本上從字面上等待關於他們自己的最終需求的市場方向，讓他們的半導體庫存糾正到當前的需求水平，優化他們的安裝基礎使用，閒置或將一些容量轉移到一組更積極的處理層，節點考慮到整體產能利用率較低，雖然效率不高，但還是有可能實現的。

We have now started, however, to see some signs where overall need for capacity is catching up with the installed base.

然而，我們現在已經開始看到一些跡象，表明總體容量需求正在趕上安裝基數。

There is indeed some [spurt] semiconductor demand you may have heard from China at this point.

您目前可能從中國聽說確實存在一些[激增的]半導體需求。

There is some inventory catch-up leading to increased utilization.

有一些庫存追趕導致利用率增加。

But most importantly, we see the technology transition activity, not yet orders but activity, is picking up.

但最重要的是，我們看到技術轉型活動（不是訂單而是活動）正在加速。

Certainly, the fact that the end customer semiconductor demand is starting to stabilize with an ever-growing mix towards new products -- that means transition to new nodes -- is forcing installed base upgrades.

當然，隨著對新產品的不斷增長的組合，終端客戶的半導體需求開始趨於穩定——這意味著向新節點的過渡——這一事實正在迫使已安裝的基礎升級。

As of last year only the leaders had invested a bit of capacity in 45 nanometer Flash, 55 nanometer DRAM, or 45 nanometer Foundry logic.

截至去年，只有領導者在 45 納米閃存、55 納米 DRAM 或 45 納米晶圓代工邏輯上投資了一些產能。

The rest of the market is now organizing their conversions during this year, 2009.

市場的其餘部分現在正在組織他們在 2009 年這一年的轉換。

And during this year the leaders themselves who had already started these conversions are now involved in even more aggressive conversion, namely a 35 nanometer Flash and 45 nanometer DRAM development.

今年，已經開始這些轉換的領導者自己現在參與了更積極的轉換，即 35 納米閃存和 45 納米 DRAM 的開發。

And these things will materialize also this year.

這些事情也將在今年實現。

The founding of TMC in Taiwan, although certainly not resolving the DRAM industry consolidation that some had expected, is in any event clarifying the playing field and is triggering technology investment planning by the different players who have been holding their investment, waiting to see what TMC's influence would be.

TMC在台灣的成立，雖然肯定沒有解決一些人預期的DRAM產業整合，但無論如何澄清了競爭環境，並引發了不同參與者的技術投資計劃，他們一直持有投資，等待看TMC的結果影響會。

We have modeled the market needs for the lithography technology transition, as you know, is our old traditional model.

我們已經模擬了光刻技術轉型的市場需求，如您所知，這是我們的舊傳統模型。

And as Peter confirmed again today, we believe that ASML revenues of between EUR400 million and EUR500 million per quarter would support these technology transitions that we expect this year.

正如彼得今天再次確認的那樣，我們相信 ASML 每季度 4 億至 5 億歐元的收入將支持我們今年預計的這些技術轉型。

We believe that we will see this level of lithography equipment revenue reached within the second half of 2009.

我們相信我們將在 2009 年下半年看到光刻設備收入達到這一水平。

In other terms, we confirm our views voiced at the beginning of the global economic crisis that, after a number of months of extraordinary low levels of sales, like we are having in Q1, ASML will stabilize on technology by levels until capacity picks up.

換句話說，我們確認了我們在全球經濟危機開始時表達的觀點，即在經歷了數月的異常低銷售水平（就像我們在第一季度所經歷的那樣）之後，ASML 將逐步穩定技術水平，直到產能回升。

So, in other terms, we saw three phases -- a very low sales phase which we are currently suffering through; a stabilization at a higher level when the industry, even through recession, will still need a minimum numbers of technology transitions, which are the numbers we just mentioned, EUR400 million to EUR500 million per quarter.

因此，換句話說，我們看到了三個階段——我們目前正在經歷的一個非常低的銷售階段；即使在經濟衰退期間，該行業仍將需要最低數量的技術轉型，即我們剛才提到的數字，即每季度 4 億至 5 億歐元，從而實現更高水平的穩定。

And then, only after we get out of recession, the capacity buys picking up and adding up to this basis.

然後，只有在我們擺脫衰退之後，產能才會增加並增加到這個基礎上。

We are certainly not seeing the capacity pick up at this time, but we see the broad technology (inaudible).

我們現在當然沒有看到容量增加，但我們看到了廣泛的技術（聽不清）。

We're therefore continuing our investments in new products, targeting introduction of our new cost effective platform called the XT-4, and the new double patterning platform called the NXT this year, as well as the delivery of five EUV tools that we have on order for 2010.

因此，我們將繼續對新產品進行投資，目標是在今年推出名為 XT-4 的新型成本效益平台和名為 NXT 的新型雙圖案化平台，以及交付我們擁有的五種 EUV 工具2010年的訂單。

We are also introducing a new suite of lithography aware design and manufacturing tools supported by our Brion subsidiary aimed at making full use of the litho hardware architectures that we have provided.

我們還推出了一套新的光刻感知設計和製造工具，由我們的 Brion 子公司提供支持，旨在充分利用我們提供的光刻硬件架構。

This quarter we have even proved a first in industry.

本季度，我們甚至證明了行業首創。

We've proved an EUV imaging with a first full field system at image size of 28 nanometer dense lines which we presented at the SPIE Advanced Lithograph Conference in February.

我們已經在 2 月份的 SPIE 高級光刻會議上展示了具有 28 納米密集線圖像尺寸的第一個全視場系統的 EUV 成像。

In summary, we've been confronted with a demand freeze in the very short term and we now see the first signs of -- and are preparing for a pickup of technology purchases.

總而言之，我們在短期內面臨需求凍結，現在我們看到了最初的跡象——並且正在準備增加技術採購。

This sales level will enable us to continue our down-term management strategy, which we prepare for a broader recovery -- or while we prepare for a broader recovery of the semiconductor industry in general.

這一銷售水平將使我們能夠繼續我們的下期管理策略，我們為更廣泛的複蘇做準備——或者在我們為半導體行業的更廣泛復甦做準備的同時。

During this period we indeed to not burn cash, maintain our technology investment leadership and work on our cost structure efficiency for the future.

在此期間，我們確實不燒錢，保持我們的技術投資領先地位，並致力於提高未來的成本結構效率。

So with this, Peter and I will be pleased to take your questions.

因此，彼得和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session.

女士們，先生們，接線員將立即指導您了解問答環節的流程。

But beforehand, I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary.

但在此之前，我想請您將自己限制在一個問題上，並在必要時進行簡短的跟進。

This will allow us to get in as many callers as possible in the time allotted.

這將使我們能夠在分配的時間內接聽盡可能多的來電者。

Now operator, could we have your instructions and then the first question, please.

接線員，請問您的指示，然後是第一個問題。

Of course.

當然。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will begin the question and answer session.

女士們先生們，現在我們將開始問答環節。

If you have a question, please press 1 and 4; 14.

如有疑問，請按1和4； 14.

And for US participants, star, 1, on your pushbutton phone.

對於美國參與者，請在您的按鈕電話上加星號 1。

So, 1 and 4; 14.

所以，1 和 4； 14.

For US participants, star, one.

對於美國參與者，明星，一個。

Your questions will be answered in the order that they are received.

您的問題將按照收到的順序進行回答。

If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections.

如果您今天使用揚聲器設備，請在選擇之前拿起聽筒。

Today's first question is from Mr.

今天的第一個問題來自於先生。

Nicolas Gaudois.

尼古拉斯·高杜瓦。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Nicolas Gaudois, UBS.

尼古拉斯·高杜瓦，瑞銀。

The first question is for clarification and I've got a follow-up.

第一個問題是為了澄清，我有一個跟進。

Clarification is on the 25 immersion tools in backlog, how much is new and how much is refurbished.

澄清了積壓的 25 個浸入式工具，有多少是新的，有多少是翻新的。

And if you could remember or recall for us what it was for 19 in Q4.

如果你能記得或回憶起我們在第四季度的 19 是什麼。

And the follow-up question is when we look at your at least EUR400 million to EUR500 million of revenues quarter run rate at some point (inaudible) orders at hand for immersion plus refurbish business non-immersion plus refurbished revenues basically should secure you about EUR400 million per quarter of revenues in Q3/Q4.

後續問題是，當我們查看您至少 4 億至 5 億歐元的收入季度運行率時（聽不清）手頭的沉浸式加翻新業務訂單非沉浸式加翻新收入基本上應該確保您大約 400 歐元百萬每季度的收入在第三季度/第四季度。

And I guess anything incremental from here into Q3 could be incremental then and effectively give these revenues toward the higher side.

而且我想從這裡到第三季度的任何增量都可能是增量的，並且有效地將這些收入推向更高的一面。

Or reversely, one could say that the low end of at least EUR400 million to EUR500 million assumes that quite conservative and your orders coming through here would be effectively offset by push-outs.

或者相反，可以說至少 4 億至 5 億歐元的低端假設相當保守，並且您通過此處發出的訂單將被推出有效地抵消。

So, if you could comment on that, but first maybe clarify the backlog for immersion.

所以，如果你可以對此發表評論，但首先可能要澄清沉浸的積壓。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good.

非常好。

Peter--.

彼得——

--Yes.

- 是的。

The 25 immersion tools are split between 23 new tools and 2 refurbs.

25 個浸入式工具分為 23 個新工具和 2 個翻新工具。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, I think your question was should we go under EUR400 million or would there be turns in Q2 that we would materialize in Q3.

然後，我認為你的問題是我們是否應該低於 4 億歐元，或者我們是否會在第三季度實現第二季度的轉變。

At this moment, we do not expect at all any push-out.

此時此刻，我們根本不期望任何推出。

We understand, of course, every of those key projects for Q3 and Q4, so are pretty solid as to above EUR400 million.

當然，我們了解第三季度和第四季度的每一個關鍵項目，因此超過 4 億歐元是相當可靠的。

And yes, we are expecting a certain number of turns, but we do not know how many which is why we've guided between EUR400 million and EUR500 million.

是的，我們預計會有一定數量的轉折，但我們不知道有多少，這就是為什麼我們將其指導在 4 億至 5 億歐元之間。

Those turns means orders which would be received -- some orders which would be received into Q2 and into Q3 for deliveries in Q3.

這些輪流意味著將收到的訂單——一些訂單將在第二季度和第三季度收到，以便在第三季度交付。

And Q4.

和第四季度。

And Q4.

和第四季度。

Okay.

好的。

So, I guess a reasonable vagueness of what you said on revenues, is basically a timing issue more than anything else on these shrinks coming back and will land in Q3 or Q4 or potentially slip in Q1.

所以，我想你所說的關於收入的合理含糊，基本上是一個時間問題，而不是這些收縮回來的任何其他問題，並將在第三季度或第四季度登陸，或者可能在第一季度下滑。

Yes.

是的。

Again, in the mobilization of life that we have, we see no real possibility for customers to delay those ramps.

同樣，在我們擁有的生活動員中，我們認為客戶沒有真正的可能性來延遲這些坡道。

You know what I'm talking about when I say leaders are already converted in 55 nanometer DRAM, which means the second players definitely have to be in the business of 55 nanometer this year.

當我說領導者已經在 55 納米 DRAM 中轉換時，你知道我在說什麼，這意味著今年第二個參與者肯定必須在 55 納米業務中。

We would not expect a significant slip into Q1 of these things, which is why again--.

我們預計這些事情不會大幅滑入第一季度，這就是為什麼——。

But again, we've brushed a guidance between EUR400 million and EUR500 million to have some leeway into what it could be, but we'd be highly surprised if it -- in fact, we do not expect it to be lower than that.

但同樣，我們已經將指導值設定在 4 億至 5 億歐元之間，以便在可能的範圍內留出一定的餘地，但如果它出現，我們會感到非常驚訝——事實上，我們預計它不會低於這個水平。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Simon Schafer.

下一個問題來自 Simon Schafer。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

It's Goldman Sachs.

是高盛。

Just a kind of the same vein of question, really.

真的，只是一種相同的問題。

In order to get to this EUR450 million or between EUR400 million and EUR500 million in quarterly revenue, are you expecting your Q2 backlog to be up?

為了獲得這 4.5 億歐元或 4 億至 5 億歐元的季度收入，您是否預計第二季度的積壓訂單會增加？

Do you need your Q2 backlog to be up sequentially to achieve that?

您是否需要按順序增加第二季度的積壓訂單才能實現這一目標？

Yes.

是的。

It would be natural, yes.

這很自然，是的。

But we have seen even in the Q2 timeframe we are seeing some customers with requests for turns within three months.

但我們已經看到，即使在第二季度的時間範圍內，我們也看到一些客戶在三個月內提出輪流請求。

So, you could image a certain number of orders which would be discussed with the customers within Q2 which will not be booking into Q2 because we would we were still negotiating a specification or something.

因此，您可以想像一定數量的訂單，這些訂單將在第二季度與客戶討論，這些訂單將不會預訂到第二季度，因為我們仍在協商規格或其他內容。

And we will ship immediately in Q3.

我們將在第三季度立即發貨。

So, you cannot mathematically immediately say that what we will book -- we will book in fact all the orders for Q3 into Q2.

因此，您不能從數學上立即說出我們將預訂什麼——實際上我們會將第三季度的所有訂單預訂到第二季度。

I couldn't expect in the current situation discussions.

我不能指望在目前的情況下進行討論。

But they will be more technical discussion than they are need discussions.

但是他們將進行更多的技術討論，而不是需要討論。

And also -- I'm sorry, but I would like to add to that that, coming out of this period every customer assumes that we're drowning in inventory.

而且 - 對不起，但我想補充一點，從這個時期開始，每個客戶都認為我們淹沒在庫存中。

And that also puts a bit of a pressure on us to actually ship quick, which actually drives this turns business, as Eric calls this also.

這也給我們帶來了一些壓力，要求我們實際快速發貨，這實際上推動了業務的轉變，正如 Eric 所說的那樣。

Now, that's not always the case.

現在，情況並非總是如此。

Sometimes the tools that we have in inventory are a different configuration that they want so we need to remodel them.

有時我們庫存中的工具是他們想要的不同配置，因此我們需要改造它們。

But that is also one of the reasons why customers have the impression that they don't need to honor our standard lead times.

但這也是客戶認為他們不需要遵守我們的標準交貨時間的原因之一。

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And my follow-up question would be just wondering what the infamous ASML model is saying about supply and demand in DRAM and in NAND for the second half of 2009.

我的後續問題只是想知道臭名昭著的 ASML 模型對 2009 年下半年 DRAM 和 NAND 的供需有何看法。

The famous model--.

名模——。

I may have misspoken there.

我可能在那裡說錯了。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

No, the famous model has an input which is in fact your question, which is what is the rate of growth of DRAM and Flash.

不，著名模型有一個輸入，實際上是您的問題，即 DRAM 和閃存的增長率是多少。

And then, from that rate of growth we input in the model we find out how many machines we need and then we can issue the guidance.

然後，根據我們在模型中輸入的增長率，我們可以找出我們需要多少台機器，然後我們可以發布指導。

Okay.

好的。

If you asked the question differently, if we ship 500 -- say EUR450 million in Q3 and EUR450 million in Q4, how much capacity will we have created in the world of DRAM logic and Flash.

如果您提出不同的問題，如果我們出貨 500 個——比如第三季度為 4.5 億歐元，第四季度為 4.5 億歐元，那麼我們將在 DRAM 邏輯和閃存領域創造多少容量。

And the answer is basically near zero, near zero gross.

答案基本上接近於零，接近於零。

Because these machines will be doing the new critical layers of the new nodes.

因為這些機器將執行新節點的新關鍵層。

So in other terms, the new node will take 10% more layers roughly.

因此，換句話說，新節點將大致增加 10% 的層數。

And these machines will suck out of the current installed base machines which will be used for the same node, but they're non-critical layers.

這些機器將從當前安裝的基礎機器中吸取，這些機器將用於同一節點，但它們是非關鍵層。

And those machines will be less efficient in their new usage.

這些機器在新用途中的效率會降低。

So, the total numbers of wafers out will be smaller or in fact say about the same.

因此，出片晶圓的總數會更小，或者說大致相同。

So in other terms, EUR450 million twice would not add wafer capacity.

所以換句話說，兩次4.5億歐元不會增加晶圓產能。

Of course, it will add bit capacity and there is -- and to be honest, I don't know the exact number at this moment.

當然，它會增加比特容量，並且有——老實說，我現在不知道確切的數字。

But we're not concerned about bits ourselves as you know.

但正如您所知，我們自己並不關心位。

We are concerned square meters.

我們關心的是平方米。

Right.

正確的。

But maybe I didn't make express my question appropriately.

但也許我沒有恰當地表達我的問題。

Just in terms of what is the -- what the installed base is today, do you think the industry is under-supplying compared to what demand may yield in the fourth quarter, which is allowing you to think that capacity orders may indeed return sometime in early 2010, or is that too premature?

就目前的安裝基礎而言，與第四季度的需求相比，您是否認為該行業供應不足，這讓您認為產能訂單可能確實會在某個時候恢復2010 年初，還是為時過早？

Yes.

是的。

Not because I know anything about the numbers of units, but because I know the mix towards new nodes that shrinks in fact the capacity available.

不是因為我對單元數量一無所知，而是因為我知道新節點的組合實際上會縮小可用容量。

So, I know that at this moment, if you project another six months and if you project the transition to tighter nodes there will be not enough capacity in the world.

所以，我知道此時此刻，如果你再計劃六個月，並且如果你計劃過渡到更緊密的節點，那麼世界上的容量將不足。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

James Crawshaw.

詹姆斯·克勞肖。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

It's James Crawshaw, S&P Equity Research.

我是標準普爾股票研究部的 James Crawshaw。

The question was on the impact on gross margins from the shift in mix towards immersion.

問題在於混合向沉浸式轉變對毛利率的影響。

I can see that clearly it's a higher ASP product, but interested to know what the sort of variable margin is.

我可以清楚地看到它是一個更高的 ASP 產品，但有興趣知道可變利潤率是多少。

If I look at your guidance for the second quarter for 9% gross margins and look at the revenue that you're guiding to, it's looks like an EUR8 million increase in gross profits on a EUR36 million increase in sales, which is a variable margin of just 22%.

如果我查看您對第二季度 9% 毛利率的指導並查看您指導的收入，看起來毛利潤增加 800 萬歐元，銷售額增加 3600 萬歐元，這是可變利潤率僅佔 22%。

And perhaps you should help explain why we wouldn't see a bigger increase in gross profits given that revenue uptick in the second quarter.

也許你應該幫助解釋為什麼我們不會看到第二季度收入增長的毛利潤有更大的增長。

Well, you cannot project with any certainty the gross margin on such a very, very, very, very, very, very exceptionally low level of sales, which we are having in Q1 and Q2.

好吧，你不能肯定地預測我們在第一季度和第二季度的如此非常、非常、非常、非常非常低的銷售水平的毛利率。

You can imagine that, if you sell one more used unit or one less, or you have a slight change of mix, and I told you that there was a bit of a discussion at this moment with customers about which specification they really want.

你可以想像，如果你多賣一個或少一個二手設備，或者你有輕微的混合變化，我告訴過你，此時此刻與客戶討論了他們真正想要哪種規格。

If you take, of course, a machine for which we have inventory versus a machine that we have to rush with new components, all this on a 10 machine business will make your margin go up or down by 5 points or so, without you being able to make the transaction on the trend.

當然，如果你拿一台我們有庫存的機器和一台我們不得不匆忙裝上新部件的機器，所有這一切在 10 台機器的業務上將使你的利潤上升或下降 5 個百分點左右，而你不會能夠在趨勢上進行交易。

So, I would like to go back to a normalized margin, when we are above EUR500 million, EUR600 million.

所以，當我們超過 5 億歐元、6 億歐元時，我想回到正常化的利潤率。

And by then, we will get back to a business, as I said all the time, which will be managed beyond 40% gross margin.

到那時，我們將恢復業務，正如我一直所說的那樣，毛利率將超過 40%。

But as I say, under this -- at such level of sales, you can't -- you cannot project it.

但正如我所說，在這種情況下——在這樣的銷售水平下，你不能——你不能預測它。

And on top of that, 45% of that number for Q2 is based on service sales and spare part sales and option sales, which of course is currently in our planning, but that can also change in terms of the mix.

最重要的是，第二季度該數字的 45% 是基於服務銷售、備件銷售和期權銷售，這當然在我們目前的計劃中，但在組合方面也可能會發生變化。

So, the granularity that you want to put into -- let's say trying to explain the gross margin, like I said, at these very low sales level, that is not very useful.

所以，你想要投入的粒度 - 比如說試圖解釋毛利率，就像我說的那樣，在這些非常低的銷售水平上，這不是很有用。

Okay.

好的。

Perhaps as a follow-up, then, if we reach your targeted level by the fourth quarter of EUR400 million or EUR450 million sales, what was the gross margin would you expect to be generating on that?

也許作為後續行動，那麼，如果我們在第四季度達到您的目標水平 4 億歐元或 4.5 億歐元的銷售額，您期望由此產生的毛利率是多少？

Well, let me -- actually, we had last quarter call, we explained a bit our cost base.

好吧，讓我 - 實際上，我們在上個季度進行了電話會議，我們解釋了我們的成本基礎。

We said we have a cost base of about EUR280 million -- as a matter of fact, it's a bit lower today.

我們說我們的成本基礎約為 2.8 億歐元——事實上，今天這個數字要低一些。

But actually we said then EUR280 million, which was split between EUR120 million of you could say fixed costs, which is people, running cost of the factory, sorry, cost of our service people, EUR120 million which is in cost of goods.

但實際上我們當時說的是 2.8 億歐元，其中 1.2 億歐元分為固定成本，也就是人員、工廠的運營成本，對不起，我們服務人員的成本，1.2 億歐元是商品成本。

And we have -- that is the remainder, EUR160 million, is R&D and SG&A.

我們有——剩下的 1.6 億歐元是研發和 SG&A。

Now, you can see for R&D and SG&A we're a bit lower than that EUR160 million, but--.

現在，您可以看到我們的研發和 SG&A 略低於 1.6 億歐元，但是——。

So, when we are then at EUR400 million or EUR500 million levels, we are targeting what we call a direct material margin of anywhere -- let's say about 55% to 60%.

因此，當我們達到 4 億歐元或 5 億歐元的水平時，我們的目標是我們所謂的任何地方的直接材料利潤率——比如說大約 55% 到 60%。

Now, if you then take the material margin off that sales number and you subtract the EUR120 million of let's say fixed costs, you can calculate the area of where we will be in our gross margin target.

現在，如果您從該銷售數字中扣除材料利潤率，然後減去 1.2 億歐元的固定成本，您就可以計算出我們將達到毛利率目標的區域。

Which at the end, translates to about breakeven at EUR450 million.

最後，轉化為約 4.5 億歐元的收支平衡。

Yes.

是的。

At the operating--.

在操作--。

--At the operating level.

——在運營層面。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Bye.

再見。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Sandeep Deshpande.

桑迪普·德斯潘德。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

JP Morgan.

摩根大通。

Eric, with respect to the orders, I mean, would you now say that in terms of the technology buys at least, that the order intake in technology buys has bottomed out and you expect now for the rest of the year the technology buys to be improving?

埃里克，關於訂單，我的意思是，你現在會說至少在技術購買方面，技術購買的訂單量已經觸底，你現在預計今年剩餘時間的技術購買是改善？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's so bad today that I can answer with a big, wholehearted yes.

我覺得今天太糟糕了，我可以全心全意地回答是。

We expect to pickup from there.

我們希望從那裡取貨。

And in terms of the order intake, do you see any -- I mean, is it across the board within the DRAM and NAND companies, or is it mainly the DRAM companies because they haven't really bought tools as yet?

就訂單接收而言，您是否看到任何 - 我的意思是，它是在 DRAM 和 NAND 公司內全面，還是主要是 DRAM 公司，因為他們還沒有真正購買工具？

And within the DRAM companies itself, do you see them across the board making shifts towards the next node, or is it still just touching the feet into the new waters really?

在 DRAM 公司內部，您是否看到他們全面轉向下一個節點，或者它是否真的只是觸及新領域？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's mainly DRAM.

我認為主要是DRAM。

Although it is true that, as you may know, some Korean companies make it a bit difficult for us to know if those machine goes at the last moment to DRAM or Flash.

儘管確實如您所知，一些韓國公司確實讓我們很難知道這些機器是在最後一刻轉到 DRAM 還是閃存。

But from what we know, and in particular because potentially the ones I'm talking about early on are not Korean, I would say the immersion will be driven by DRAM 55 nanometer nodes.

但據我們所知，特別是因為我之前提到的可能不是韓國人，我想說沉浸感將由 DRAM 55 納米節點驅動。

But clearly, the leaders, as I say, who have already invested in 55, are starting to develop the new nodes, which is 45-ish nanometer DRAM and a 35 nanometer Flash, and those ones will probably trigger the second batch of orders.

但顯然，正如我所說，已經投資 55 的領導者正在開始開發新節點，即 45 納米 DRAM 和 35 納米閃存，這些節點可能會觸發第二批訂單。

And then to follow-up, in terms of the second batch of orders, you expect them to come in the next couple of quarters; in this current quarter and the next quarter.

然後跟進，在第二批訂單方面，你預計他們會在接下來的幾個季度到來；在本季度和下一個季度。

That is exactly where the uncertainty of life is now, where we would not be surprised by about 450/450.

這正是現在生活的不確定性所在，我們不會對大約 450/450 感到驚訝。

But we could be surprise with 500/400.

但我們可能會對 500/400 感到驚訝。

We could be surprise with 400/500, of this nature.

對於這種性質的 400/500，我們可能會感到驚訝。

And all this depend on these different timings we were just talking about.

而這一切都取決於我們剛才所說的這些不同的時間。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Timothy Arcuri.

蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Citi.

花旗。

Hi.

你好。

A couple of things.

幾件事。

First of all, if you look at your backlog, and if you look at it relative to your current business level, and certainly your business level is depressed below typical downturns, but you have a much greater backlog relative to your current business level than you have during virtually every other prior cycle.

首先，如果你看一下你的積壓，如果你看它與你當前的業務水平相關，你的業務水平肯定低於典型的低迷水平，但相對於你當前的業務水平，你的積壓比你的要多得多幾乎每隔一個之前的周期都有。

So, I'm wondering, does that make you worry that customers will pull from backlog, at least kind of out of the gates?

所以，我想知道，這是否讓您擔心客戶會從積壓的訂單中撤出，至少會退出大門？

So, when you're kind of getting to that EUR400 million to EUR500 million level in Q3 and Q4, that they are pulling from backlog up front and that your booking don't in fact lead the industry, that they might lag a little bit?

所以，當你在第三季度和第四季度達到 4 億歐元到 5 億歐元的水平時，他們正在從前期積壓中撤出，而你的預訂實際上並沒有引領行業，他們可能會有點滯後？

Well, this is a bit what I was telling you about, the difficulty of reading the backlog -- sorry, the booking number.

好吧，這就是我要告訴你的一點，閱讀積壓的困難——對不起，預訂號碼。

Not so much because the customer will take from backlog.

與其說是因為客戶會從積壓中拿走。

At this moment, I would expect the backlog to be remaining fairly consistent around this EUR800-ish million or even growing.

目前，我預計積壓訂單將保持在 8 億歐元左右，甚至還會增長。

But I expect turns.

但我期待轉機。

So, I expect the opposite -- completely the opposite of what you just said, that is the customers for which we have backlog, we know where they are.

所以，我預計恰恰相反——與你剛才所說的完全相反，那就是我們有積壓的客戶，我們知道他們在哪裡。

They are spread.

它們被傳播。

In fact, they are more spread than normal on the next three quarters.

事實上，它們在接下來的三個季度比正常情況下傳播得更多。

And you're going to have in addition to that a lot of turns.

除此之外，你還會有很多轉彎。

So, that's how it's going to work, which is not that normal in a recession of that nature when, as Peter said, most of the customers say, "Hey, you guys have inventory and you have capacity.

所以，這就是它的運作方式，這在這種性質的經濟衰退中是不正常的，正如彼得所說，大多數客戶說，“嘿，你們有庫存，你們有能力。

So, we're going to take the last moment before we shoot you some orders." So, that's probably scenarios of the next six months.

因此，我們將在向您發出一些訂單之前採取最後一刻。”因此，這可能是未來六個月的情況。

Okay.

好的。

So, I guess kind of that comes down a bit to the fairly big slug right now that's in backlog from the Taiwan DRAM companies, because that probably doesn't ship in the back half of the year.

所以，我想這在某種程度上歸結為台灣 DRAM 公司目前積壓的相當大的 slug，因為它可能不會在今年下半年出貨。

So, if you strip that out, then there have to be some turns on the kind of other stuff to kind of get you to that level.

所以，如果你把它去掉，那麼其他東西就必須有一些轉變才能讓你達到那個水平。

If you are trying to hint to me that in the backlog we had anything from Taiwan, the answer is you may be wrong.

如果你試圖向我暗示我們在積壓的訂單中有來自台灣的任何東西，答案是你可能錯了。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess my next question is can you update us on breakeven and on any further plans maybe to take it lower?

然後我想我的下一個問題是你能否向我們更新盈虧平衡以及可能降低盈虧平衡的任何進一步計劃？

Peter?

彼得？

Yes.

是的。

We have -- we are targeting a breakeven level at around EUR450 million.

我們已經 - 我們的目標是達到約 4.5 億歐元的盈虧平衡水平。

That's for the second half of the year.

這是今年下半年的事。

We are currently in a process of reviewing all activities in pretty granular detail.

我們目前正在非常詳細地審查所有活動。

All activities in the Company, the outcome of that process, still needs to be internally discussed.

公司的所有活動，以及該過程的結果，仍需要在內部進行討論。

So, that's something which I'm not going to comment on today.

所以，這是我今天不打算評論的事情。

But that's clearly an activity that is ongoing as we speak.

但這顯然是我們說話時正在進行的活動。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one more.

然後還有一個。

Can you give just a little bit of clarity in terms of the 4D bookings, what were there?

您能否就 4D 預訂提供一點清晰度，那裡有什麼？

Were they ArF?

他們是 ArF 嗎？

They were dry systems.

它們是乾燥系統。

Dry systems.

乾燥系統。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Odon de Laporte.

奧東德拉波特。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I was wondering when you are going to effect (inaudible), bookings of EUV tools.

我想知道你什麼時候會影響（聽不清）EUV 工具的預訂。

Because I understand you plan to ship some in 2010, but that's not yet in the backlog.

因為我知道你們計劃在 2010 年出貨一些，但還沒有積壓。

That is correct.

那是對的。

I think we are conservative in our bookings.

我認為我們的預訂比較保守。

In a normal situation, the rule is such we would not take bookings longer than the 12-months lead time for security purposes.

在正常情況下，出於安全考慮，我們不會接受超過 12 個月提前期的預訂。

So, it is true that we are having to get into the 12-months lead time for EUV.

因此，我們確實必須進入 EUV 的 12 個月交貨期。

I will probably have a discussion with Peter here.

我可能會在這裡與彼得討論。

It's the first time the question is asked.

這是第一次被問到這個問題。

I think we're going to take a conservative view as to us being certain of shipping on time, because we still have to prove a certain number of concepts with EUV.

我認為我們將對我們確定按時發貨持保守觀點，因為我們仍然需要用 EUV 證明一定數量的概念。

And when we are reasonably certain that those machines are meeting the targets they expect, then we probably will recognize that.

當我們有理由確定這些機器正在達到他們期望的目標時，我們可能會認識到這一點。

Yes.

是的。

And by that time they will be in the 12-month window.

到那時他們將處於 12 個月的窗口期。

Yes.

是的。

But just to make sure those -- we have orders for five systems.

但只是為了確保這些 - 我們有五個系統的訂單。

So, those orders are already in.

所以，這些訂單已經到了。

They're not shown in the backlog because they're outside the 12-month window.

它們未顯示在積壓中，因為它們在 12 個月的窗口之外。

But when we get more absolute certainty about shipment time, then we're likely within that 12-month window and then they will pop up in the -- but we will split them out so you will see it.

但是當我們對裝運時間有更多的絕對確定性時，那麼我們可能會在 12 個月的窗口內出現，然後它們會彈出——但我們會將它們分開，這樣你就會看到它。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Mark Power.

馬克·鮑爾。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

It's Redburn Partners.

它是 Redburn Partners。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

The first one was just on the backlog yet again.

第一個只是再次積壓。

I just wondered if you could give any additional granularity on the maturity profile of the immersion backlog in terms of age, and particularly on the delivery dates, if indeed that's know to you, I guess, beyond the next two quarters.

我只是想知道您是否可以就年齡方面的沉浸式積壓的成熟度概況提供任何額外的粒度，特別是在交付日期方面，如果您確實知道，我想，在接下來的兩個季度之後。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

The reason why I think the backlog is certainly more spread than usual -- if I'm not mistaken, 60% of the backlog to be shipped in six months, which is normally we're better than that usually, but it is a bit more spread -- is because we have a large order of immersion machine, which is spread longer than that for Flash.

我認為積壓訂單肯定比平時更廣泛的原因——如果我沒記錯的話，60% 的積壓訂單將在六個月內發貨，這通常比我們平時要好，但有點更多的傳播——是因為我們有大量的浸入機訂單，它的傳播時間比 Flash 的時間長。

The rest is pretty natural.

剩下的就很自然了。

But there's no question of orders lingering in the backlog and customers refusing to take delivery, and you not knowing when you can be in a position to deliver them?

但毫無疑問，訂單積壓，客戶拒收，不知道什麼時候可以發貨？

Let me be -- you always have one or two lingering friends.

讓我成為——你總是有一兩個揮之不去的朋友。

But I'm looking at the numbers here.

但我正在看這裡的數字。

No -- there is no more lingering than normal in this industry.

不——這個行業沒有比正常情況更揮之不去的了。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up on NXT.

並且只是對 NXT 的跟進。

And could you give us an idea, qualitatively if need be, on your expectations for the ramp-up of demand for NXT and how significant it could be in 2010, please?

如果需要的話，您能否定性地告訴我們您對 NXT 需求增長的預期以及它在 2010 年的重要性？

Yes.

是的。

So, NXT (inaudible) about three months before shipment.

因此，NXT（聽不清）大約在發貨前三個月。

We should ship early into July.

我們應該在 7 月初發貨。

We are starting to have the normal white hair, where we discover the latest and greatest little issues and the nagging problems.

我們開始有正常的白髮，在那裡我們發現最新和最大的小問題和煩人的問題。

So, therefore, the first shipments we will do in Q3.

因此，我們將在第三季度進行第一批發貨。

It will be within Q3.

它將在第三季度內。

And I think it will be not a high volume.

而且我認為這不會很大。

The NXT will prove its overlay, which is supposedly 2 nanometer, which by the way we have already proven, so we are pretty comfortable with that.

NXT 將證明它的覆蓋層，據說是 2 納米，順便說一句，我們已經證明了這一點，所以我們對此非常滿意。

And this 2 nanometer will make it the only tool in the world capable of this by a factor probably two to three multiplier.

而這個 2 納米將使它成為世界上唯一能夠做到這一點的工具，乘數可能增加兩到三倍。

That should get it a 100% market share in all serious double patterning businesses.

這應該讓它在所有嚴肅的雙重圖案業務中獲得 100% 的市場份額。

So, that would be 22 nano Logic, 35 Flash, 40 nanometer DRAM.

因此，這將是 22 納米邏輯、35 納米閃存、40 納米 DRAM。

So therefore, then the volume ramp will depend on when those three nodes are really ramping, and that at this moment we don't really know.

因此，音量上升將取決於這三個節點何時真正上升，而目前我們還不知道。

Fair enough.

很公平。

But it will be in 2010.

但它會在 2010 年。

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

The next question is from [Neil Sessort].

下一個問題來自 [Neil Sessort]。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Neil Sessort for (inaudible).

Neil Sessort（聽不清）。

My question would just be one slide of clarification.

我的問題只是一張幻燈片的說明。

The EUR400 million to EUR500 million revenues you're hinting at for the second half of this year on a quarterly basis, they do include your expected shipments of the NXT-1900i -- 1950i?

您暗示今年下半年每季度 4 億至 5 億歐元的收入，它們確實包括您預期的 NXT-1900i -- 1950i 出貨量？

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

It does.

確實如此。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Didier Scemama.

迪迪埃·施瑪瑪。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

It's Didier from RBS.

我是 RBS 的 Didier。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I'd just like to have a clarification.

我只想澄清一下。

On the cash flow I can see you've taken a charge for inventory (inaudible), I believe of about EUR23 million or EUR24 million.

在現金流量上，我可以看到你已經收取了庫存費用（聽不清），我相信大約是 2300 萬歐元或 2400 萬歐元。

Did you book that in the cost of sales?

您是否將其計入銷售成本？

And therefore, did that sort of depress your gross margins?

因此，這是否會降低您的毛利率？

And will that basically flatter perhaps your gross margins at least to a certain degree when this equipment is shipped in maybe second half or maybe '10?

當該設備可能在下半年或 10 年發貨時，這是否會至少在一定程度上提高您的毛利率？

That is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

That was a self-explanatory question in a sense.

從某種意義上說，這是一個不言自明的問題。

Yes, it is -- your assumption is indeed correct.

是的，它是——你的假設確實是正確的。

What kind of equipment is that?

那是什麼設備？

That's basically the equipment that we're not selling much at these moment in time.

這基本上是我們目前銷售不多的設備。

So, it's largely on dry equipment.

所以，主要是在乾式設備上。

So that's Krf, dry ArF and that type of equipment.

這就是 Krf、幹 ArF 和那種類型的設備。

Can you say how many units?

你能說出多少個單位嗎？

No, it's just -- it's been patch modules.

不，它只是——它是補丁模塊。

So, those are not tools, but there are parts of the tools, modules that we use to assemble the tools.

所以，那些不是工具，而是工具的一部分，我們用來組裝工具的模塊。

Great.

偉大的。

And a follow-up maybe.

也許還有後續行動。

I mean that's the hundred million dollar question that everybody is looking for an answer.

我的意思是這是一個價值數億美元的問題，每個人都在尋找答案。

So, I'd like to have of your opinion.

所以，我想听聽你的意見。

You've lowered your cost base, you've done some restructuring, but the chip equipment industry peak-to-peak was flat 2000 to 2007.

你已經降低了成本基礎，你已經進行了一些重組，但芯片設備行業的峰值與峰值在 2000 年至 2007 年持平。

And if you address for currencies, (inaudible) was no different.

如果您針對貨幣，（聽不清）也不例外。

Obviously, you made some market share gain from your position.

顯然，你從你的職位中獲得了一些市場份額。

So, my question would be, everything else being equal, do you think that your next peak EPS will be higher or lower or the same as 2007?

所以，我的問題是，在其他條件相同的情況下，您認為您的下一個每股收益峰值會高於還是低於 2007 年，或者與 2007 年持平？

It's a billion dollar question.

這是一個價值十億美元的問題。

But the answer is--.

但答案是——。

--Actually is a billion dollar question.

--實際上是一個十億美元的問題。

You have easy questions.

你有簡單的問題。

The answer is yes, we expect the EPS to be higher, because we expect this crisis to lead us to be more effective on the cost structure.

答案是肯定的，我們預計 EPS 會更高，因為我們預計這場危機會讓我們在成本結構上更加有效。

I would prefer not to answer any quantitative question at this moment.

我現在不想回答任何定量問題。

And we expect the euro to remain at this current level.

我們預計歐元將保持在當前水平。

If you remember our history for five years, the euro has appreciated versus the yen by 60% or something and we had to eat this 60% in efficiency.

如果你還記得我們五年的歷史，歐元兌日元升值了 60% 左右，我們不得不吃掉這 60% 的效率。

So, on a stable euro we would expect that we would gain.

因此，在穩定的歐元下，我們預計我們會獲利。

So, first of all, our cost structure will be better.

所以，首先，我們的成本結構會更好。

Secondly, the euro should be stabilish.

其次，歐元應該保持穩定。

And third, we are having new products, in particular the products coming from Brion, which allow us to think that we sell more value per tool.

第三，我們正在推出新產品，尤其是來自 Brion 的產品，這讓我們認為我們每件工具的銷售價值更高。

So, these two -- these three things should converge in bringing us a better EPS.

所以，這兩個 - 這三件事應該匯集在一起，為我們帶來更好的每股收益。

And on top of that, I would add that when do our infamous or famous modeling on the technology node transition on the increased number of layers, and on the need for let's say NXT double patterning technology and from 2012 onwards EUV, we are still highly confident that we can reach our EUR5 billion sales mark, which of course is higher than our previous peak.

最重要的是，我要補充一點，當我們在技術節點過渡時進行臭名昭著或著名的建模時，隨著層數的增加，以及對比方說 NXT 雙圖案技術和從 2012 年起的 EUV 的需求，我們仍然高度重視我們有信心達到 50 億歐元的銷售額，這當然高於我們之前的峰值。

So, that adds to that significantly, also.

因此，這也顯著增加了這一點。

And EUR5 billion, how much market share is that and what's the size, the time that your looking then?

50 億歐元，市場份額是多少，規模是多少，您尋找的時間是多少？

Its 70% market share.

其70%的市場份額。

We don't think that we would go further than that.

我們認為我們不會比這更進一步。

I think a stability of 70/30-ish.

我認為穩定性為 70/30-ish。

So we don't -- we're not more hungry than that at this moment, and therefore the market would be about EUR7 billion or a bit more.

所以我們不——我們現在並不比現在更渴望，因此市場將約為 70 億歐元或更多。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Satya Kumar.

薩蒂亞·庫馬爾。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸。

More of a longer term question.

更多的是一個長期的問題。

I was wondering if you could give an update on what do you think is the impact for lithography from self-aligned double patterning?

我想知道您是否可以更新您認為自對準雙圖案化對光刻的影響是什麼？

Does this have any impact on how to think about the lithography opportunity as we shrink the 32 nanometer for NAND and 55 for DRAM?

當我們縮小 NAND 的 32 納米和 DRAM 的 55 納米時，這對如何考慮光刻機會有什麼影響嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

As you have heard, a lot of activities by our customers who try to find ways around putting more bits onto a piece of silicon without using the most expensive lithography tool.

正如您所聽說的，我們的客戶進行了很多活動，他們試圖找到在不使用最昂貴的光刻工具的情況下將更多位放到矽片上的方法。

So, some of them have used the self-aligning, double patterning, which we also call a spacer, which is a way to do simple structures, one-dimensional structures, by using lower cost lithography, but more of them.

因此，他們中的一些人使用了自對準、雙圖案化，我們也稱之為間隔物，這是一種通過使用成本較低的光刻技術來製作簡單結構、一維結構的方法，但更多。

So, when you are having a lot of installed base and you do not have utilization, this is the best thing you can do on earth.

因此，當您擁有大量安裝基礎並且沒有利用率時，這是您可以做的最好的事情。

Because you use more of the old stuff which is fully amortized so it's zero cost, and you self-align so you shrink, so everybody is happy.

因為你使用了更多完全攤銷的舊東西，所以它是零成本，而且你自對齊所以你縮小了，所以每個人都很開心。

So, we see some of that.

所以，我們看到了其中的一些。

And some of our customers are using these techniques to improve use, in fact to solve the problem of utilization, which is why also potentially we've seen here some customers able to delay.

我們的一些客戶正在使用這些技術來提高使用率，實際上是為了解決利用率問題，這就是為什麼我們在這裡也可能看到一些客戶能夠延遲的原因。

However, self-alignment has two problems.

然而，自對準有兩個問題。

One, it is still having a lot of processing steps, so it is costly.

第一，它仍然有很多處理步驟，所以成本很高。

And secondly, it is using a lot of capacity.

其次，它使用了大量的容量。

So, when the business comes back or when you want to shrink further, you can even do self-alignment with the newest lithography tool, and then you're even better.

所以，當生意回來或者你想進一步收縮的時候，你甚至可以用最新的光刻工具做自對準，然後你就更好了。

So, we -- in other terms, we see a bit of a negative impact, if you will, when there is no utilization.

因此，我們 - 換句話說，如果您願意的話，我們會在沒有利用率的情況下看到一些負面影響。

When there is utilization, then self-aligning double patterning or normal double patterning or single patterning, etc., is about the same business for us.

當有利用時，自對準雙圖案或普通雙圖案或單圖案等，對我們來說是差不多的業務。

Okay.

好的。

Just as a follow-up to that, most of the time DRAM and NAND factories run at 100% utilization rates.

隨之而來的是，大部分時間 DRAM 和 NAND 工廠都以 100% 的利用率運行。

Yes.

是的。

So, is this comment more applicable for Logic?

那麼，這個評論是否更適用於邏輯？

I mean, from what I hear, this technology is more applicable for NAND Flash.

我的意思是，據我所知，這項技術更適用於NAND Flash。

What are the NAND companies having 100% utilization and leverage?

利用率和槓桿率達到100%的NAND公司有哪些？

For the first time in history, in the December timeframe and a bit in Q1, NAND and DRAM did not run at 100% capacity.

歷史上第一次，在 12 月和第一季度的某個時間段內，NAND 和 DRAM 沒有以 100% 的容量運行。

The first time in history.

歷史上第一次。

So, it's -- and therefore, you have heard the noise about customers saying "Well, let's use this opportunity to do a bit of shrink using the available capacity." But at the moment demand comes back, they get in trouble because they loose market share.

所以，它 - 因此，您聽到了客戶說“好吧，讓我們利用這個機會使用可用容量進行一些縮減”的聲音。但在需求回升的那一刻，他們陷入了困境，因為他們失去了市場份額。

So, you may have heard one or two of those players starting to complain that, during the slight pickup, they are loosing market share.

因此，您可能已經聽到其中一兩個參與者開始抱怨說，在略有回升的過程中，他們正在失去市場份額。

Of course it's good in the sense that the price goes up, but there are at this moment some "activity" to rebuilding it.

當然，從價格上漲的意義上來說這是件好事，但目前有一些重建它的“活動”。

And the reason why of course they actually idled, tools didn't run the fabs at 100% utilization, because the sales price for their devices was lower than the cash cost.

當然，他們實際上閒置的原因是，工具並沒有以 100% 的利用率運行晶圓廠，因為他們設備的銷售價格低於現金成本。

So then, lastly, do you guys see any activity on lithography repurchases in the used market, given that there's at least two or three DRAM factories that are going to come offline from the market?

那麼，最後，考慮到至少有兩三個 DRAM 工廠將要從市場下線，你們是否看到二手市場上的光刻機回購活動？

Yes.

是的。

So, on 200 millimeter this has already started.

因此，在 200 毫米上，這已經開始了。

But the wave of variable machinery is so large, the supply is much, much higher than the demand.

但是可變機械的浪潮那麼大，供給遠遠高於需求。

So, we believe that this would be a good market for us to participate in, too, because we are a refurbishing company.

因此，我們相信這對我們來說也是一個很好的參與市場，因為我們是一家翻新公司。

As you know, we refurbish about 5 to 10 machines per quarter.

如您所知，我們每個季度翻新大約 5 到 10 台機器。

So, the market at this moment is more like in the 5-ish range.

因此，此時的市場更像是在 5-ish 範圍內。

There is going to be a lot of used machines available.

將會有很多二手機器可用。

And when they find homes, we will be there to refurbish them.

當他們找到家時，我們將在那裡進行翻新。

But again, at this moment the demand is weak.

但同樣，此時需求疲軟。

On the 300 millimeter, you are probably referring only to one company at this moment who is under protection.

關於 300 毫米，您目前可能僅指一家受到保護的公司。

And they have, I think, two 300 millimeter fab.

我認為他們有兩個 300 毫米晶圓廠。

And I guess that they will try our sell their equipment.

我猜他們會嘗試我們出售他們的設備。

We also have a (inaudible) in Taiwan selling equipment.

我們在台灣也有一家（聽不清）銷售設備。

Yes, but pretty old thing if I--.

是的，但如果我——那是很老的事情了。

--Yes.

- 是的。

It's not 300 millimeters.

不是300毫米。

Yes.

是的。

I think the major 300 millimeter facilities that are up for sale is from a company that's currently in receivership.

我認為待售的主要 300 毫米設施來自一家目前處於接管狀態的公司。

Got it.

知道了。

Alright.

好吧。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Mehdi Hosseini.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mehdi Hosseini, FBR Capital Markets.

Mehdi Hosseini，FBR 資本市場。

In your booking for Q1, it seems to me that the ASPs went up significantly.

在您對第一季度的預訂中，在我看來，平均售價顯著上升。

And I'm just wondering, did you have any EUV tools that were booked in Q1?

我只是想知道，你們有沒有在第一季度預訂的任何 EUV 工具？

No.

不。

Those were immersion tools.

那些是沉浸式工具。

Immersion tools.

浸泡工具。

Yes.

是的。

So, units are pretty much similar to Q4, so it's just higher ASP immersion that drove the 200 and some?

所以，單位與第四季度非常相似，所以它只是更高的 ASP 沉浸推動了 200 和一些？

Correct.

正確的。

Like we said, also during this call and in the press release, we've seen a significant -- yes, if you would look at the total bookings, it's definitely significant.

就像我們說的那樣，在這次電話會議和新聞稿中，我們也看到了一個重要的——是的，如果你看一下總預訂量，這絕對是重要的。

The demand for immersion tools is driven by the need for the technology transitions that we've talked about.

對沉浸式工具的需求是由我們談到的技術轉型需求驅動的。

That is really not nanometer Logic.

那真的不是納米邏輯。

That's 55 nanometer DRAM conversions.

那是 55 納米 DRAM 轉換。

Sure.

當然。

And even a sub-40 nanometer Flash.

甚至是亞 40 納米的閃存。

And that needs immersion.

這需要沉浸。

So, that's why the relative part of the immersion bookings in the bookings of Q1 was that high and they simply carry high value of prices.

所以，這就是為什麼沉浸式預訂在第一季度的預訂中所佔的相對比例如此之高，而且它們只是具有很高的價格價值。

Sure.

當然。

So, as a follow-up to that, in your comment you said that Taiwan wasn't presence.

因此，作為後續行動，您在評論中說台灣不存在。

So, it seems to me that maybe it's all driven by the one X company in Korea and maybe one company in Japan.

所以，在我看來，也許這一切都是由韓國的一家 X 公司和日本的一家公司推動的。

So, is it fair to assume that that number of immersion tools booked in Q1 was just primarily from two companies?

那麼，假設第一季度預訂的浸入式工具數量主要來自兩家公司是否公平？

No.

不。

The companies that you suggest were not in there.

您建議的公司不在其中。

Okay.

好的。

It's really one [see] to this.

這真的是一個[看到]。

You can't really write any significant trend with what we've seen.

你不能用我們所看到的真正寫出任何重要趨勢。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

So, it's one at a time.

所以，一次一個。

Most of the companies are having significant activities, not bookings.

大多數公司都有重要的活動，而不是預訂。

When any of the big names that you mentioned comes they will be coming with a bit bigger numbers.

當你提到的任何大牌出現時，他們都會帶來更大的數字。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then, when would we expect to see the bookings for these 10 EUV tools that I think you said it will be revenue in 2010?

然後，我們什麼時候可以看到這 10 種 EUV 工具的預訂，我認為你說這將在 2010 年產生收入？

Five--.

五 - 。

--Five--.

- 五 - 。

--Five EUV tools.

--五個 EUV 工具。

Alright.

好吧。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

And as I said, we are going to take a conservative approach when we are sure that they need spec.

正如我所說，當我們確定他們需要規格時，我們將採取保守的方法。

So, it can be in Q4 or it can be in Q1, even if we have to ship in Q2, Q3.

所以，它可以在第四季度或第一季度，即使我們必須在第二季度、第三季度發貨。

I want to take my time with--.

我想慢慢來--。

Anyway, we will be fully visible.

無論如何，我們將完全可見。

The tool price is not the final price.

工具價格不是最終價格。

These are five preproduction tools.

這是五個試生產工具。

They don't have the market price yet, but you will see what we've agreed as a prototype price, etc., etc.

他們還沒有市場價格，但你會看到我們商定的原型價格等等。

So, all this we'll be publicized in due time.

所以，這一切我們都會在適當的時候公佈。

Yes.

是的。

And then we have to also, for revenue recognition purposes, we have to take account for the [SEB-101], which means you could argue this is new technology that needs to be proven first at the customer site.

然後，出於收入確認的目的，我們還必須考慮 [SEB-101]，這意味著您可能會爭辯說這是一項需要首先在客戶現場進行驗證的新技術。

So, that means that there's a later moment of revenue recognition with new technology.

因此，這意味著新技術的收入確認時間較晚。

That's something we will still need to look at.

這是我們仍然需要研究的問題。

And also, based on the maturity level of the tools whilst they ship.

而且，基於工具在交付時的成熟度水平。

So, it could be like, as I said, we could be shipping the tools in 2010 and recognize revenue only in the first quarter of 2011.

因此，正如我所說，我們可能會在 2010 年交付工具，並在 2011 年第一季度才確認收入。

Okay.

好的。

And just one quick follow-up, actually more to do with the cash flow in Q2.

只是一個快速的跟進，實際上更多地與第二季度的現金流有關。

Would you expect to be cash neutral in Q2 or burning cash?

您希望在第二季度保持現金中性還是燃燒現金？

We would say we will be -- our expectation is to be cash neutral for the first half.

我們會說我們會 - 我們的預期是上半年現金中性。

So, it could be that we are -- that we could be burning slightly in Q2.

所以，可能是我們 - 我們可能會在第二季度略有燃燒。

But clearly, our focus would be on not burning cash.

但很明顯，我們的重點是不燒錢。

Okay.

好的。

Gotcha.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And remember that when we burn cash, sometimes it's for the good reason, because we have six to nine month lead times.

請記住，當我們燒錢時，有時是有充分理由的，因為我們有六到九個月的交貨時間。

So, if we were to burn more cash than necessary, you may get happy.

所以，如果我們要消耗比必要更多的現金，你可能會很高興。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Weston Twigg.

韋斯頓特維格。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi.

你好。

Wes Twigg, Pacific Crest.

韋斯·特維格，太平洋佳洁士。

Just wanted to follow up on something I believe I heard earlier.

只是想跟進我相信我早些時候聽到的事情。

I think you said in your backlog you have a large order of immersion tools for a Flash customer.

我想你在你的積壓工作中說過，你為 Flash 客戶訂購了大量沉浸式工具。

Just wondering what's your level of confidence there, that those go out over the next two months or two quarters?

只是想知道您對這些在接下來的兩個月或兩個季度內消失的信心程度如何？

And which model would it be to meet the resolution requirements down at this 3x nanometer node?

在這個 3x 納米節點下，哪種型號可以滿足分辨率要求？

So, we are fairly comfortable with the shipment of the orders we have, obviously.

因此，顯然，我們對訂單的發貨相當滿意。

And then they are staged like clockwork.

然後他們像發條一樣上演。

At this moment, in view of the DRAM business and the price and the end product which improves, we feel pretty okay that the schedules will be set.

此時此刻，鑑於 DRAM 業務和價格以及最終產品的改善，我們覺得可以確定時間表。

In addition, those products are compatible with a 3x transition that is being planned.

此外，這些產品與計劃中的 3 倍轉換兼容。

So, the idea at this moment is that this installed base, which I'll remind you has an NA of 1.35.

所以，目前的想法是，我要提醒你的這個已安裝基礎的 NA 為 1.35。

We never -- we don't even talk about this for a year and a half or something this.

我們從來沒有——我們甚至在一年半的時間裡都沒有談論過這個。

But we are also unique in the industry with a very large lens.

但我們在行業中也是獨一無二的，擁有非常大的鏡頭。

And that large lens makes this installed base compatible to the 3x Flash.

那個大鏡頭使這個安裝基礎與 3x 閃光燈兼容。

I didn't say the customers we will use this as a base, because they are hesitating between this machine called the XT and the NXT.

我沒有說我們將以此為基礎的客戶，因為他們正在這台名為 XT 和 NXT 的機器之間猶豫不決。

But the XT could definitively we be doing some of the layers of 3x, and the whole question will be cost effectiveness.

但 XT 可以明確地讓我們做一些 3x 的層，整個問題將是成本效益。

And in fact, we are in the middle of the discussion.

事實上，我們正在討論之中。

Okay.

好的。

So, it sounds like some of those tools may convert to NXT orders.

所以，聽起來其中一些工具可能會轉換為 NXT 訂單。

Remember, if you were completely focused on one node, it would make sense for you buy NXT for, say, four layers and XT for the other six.

請記住，如果您完全專注於一個節點，那麼您購買四層 NXT 和其他六層 XT 是有意義的。

But customers would say that's fine for day one and then, in day two, I prefer 10 NXTs.

但客戶會說第一天沒問題，然後在第二天，我更喜歡 10 NXT。

But these type of things you -- we don't really control.

但是這些類型的事情你 - 我們並沒有真正控制。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a quick follow-up.

然後只是快速跟進。

You mentioned a customer in Singapore.

你提到了新加坡的一位客戶。

Just wondering what technology node that's for and if they're ordering any immersion tools yet?

只是想知道這是什麼技術節點，他們是否正在訂購任何沉浸式工具？

They are doing dry and immersion.

他們正在做乾燥和浸泡。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Every customer.

每個客戶。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Kai Korschelt.

凱科爾舍爾特。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

It's Deutsche Bank.

是德意志銀行。

My first question is on TMC.

我的第一個問題是關於 TMC。

I mean, given the kind of course of events of the last few weeks, what is your impression of the timing and potential size of any order mentioned there?

我的意思是，鑑於過去幾週的事件進程，您對那裡提到的任何訂單的時間和潛在規模有何印象？

And then my second question, just to follow-up on the cash flow question, obviously you pay your dividend in the second quarter.

然後我的第二個問題，只是跟進現金流量問題，顯然你在第二季度支付股息。

And in order to make the first half cash neutral, are you actually expecting to generate positive operating cash flow or is that really just referring to the combined H1 level?

為了使上半年的現金保持中性，您實際上是期望產生正的經營現金流，還是真的只是指合併的 H1 水平？

Thank you.

謝謝。

To answer the last question, it's referring to the combined H1 level.

要回答最後一個問題，它指的是合併的 H1 級別。

Yes.

是的。

So, that includes indeed the -- let's say EUR86 million of dividend payment that we have done recently.

所以，這確實包括——比如說我們最近支付的 8600 萬歐元股息。

To refer to TMC, as you know the business model I think of TMC is still being discussed by TMC.

提到TMC，正如你所知，我認為TMC的商業模式仍在TMC的討論中。

And at this moment these alignments at TMC appear in terms of serving certain numbers of technology processes together; Micromania aligning as a competitor to TMC and requesting equal treatment by the Taiwanese government.

目前，TMC 的這些結盟表現為共同服務一定數量的技術流程； Micromania結盟為TMC的競爭對手，要求台灣政府給予平等對待。

So, the issue is not so much what TMC is, the issue is that they have now triggered a clear set of decision that has to taken by Micromania on one hand, and by Elpida on the other.

所以，問題不在於 TMC 是什麼，問題在於他們現在已經觸發了一套明確的決定，一方面必須由 Micromania 做出，另一方面必須由 Elpida 做出。

So, we are now discussing with those two companies (inaudible).

因此，我們現在正在與這兩家公司進行討論（聽不清）。

And this is what is being done at this moment, and not at all a direct TMC purchase.

這就是目前正在做的事情，而不是直接購買 TMC。

Okay.

好的。

Could I ask just one quick follow-up, please, on the cancellations that you've seen both in Q4 and Q1.

關於您在第 4 季度和第 1 季度看到的取消，我能問一個快速跟進嗎？

Were those mainly non-immersion?

那些主要是非沉浸式的嗎？

Correct

正確的

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mrs.

下一個問題來自夫人。

Jane Coull.

簡庫爾。

Pelase state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hello.

你好。

I'm Jane Coull, Martin Currie.

我是簡·庫爾，馬丁·庫裡。

In terms of the TMC, or certainly the Taiwanese DRAM situation, can you maybe quantify the potential orders upside from this source and maybe give us an idea as to the timing that you anticipate in terms of when we'll see fresh orders in the backlog from this source?

就 TMC 而言，或者肯定是台灣 DRAM 的情況，您能否量化來自該來源的潛在訂單上行，並可能給我們一個關於您預期的時間的想法，即我們何時會在積壓訂單中看到新訂單從這個來源？

I would prefer not.

我寧願不。

I think -- how can I answer you constructively?

我想——我怎樣才能建設性地回答你？

Because again, remember those two customers are working on competitive ramps and any statement, it would be awkward for me.

因為再次記住，這兩個客戶正在努力提高競爭力，任何聲明對我來說都會很尷尬。

But I would guess that an order of a new player into a new fab, putting one line, would go for say at least four tools in the first batch.

但我猜想，一個新玩家的訂單進入一個新的晶圓廠，放一條線，第一批至少需要四個工具。

So, how can I answer that better?

那麼，我怎樣才能更好地回答這個問題呢？

So, four would be a minimum, then how many batches or how many lines you want.

因此，最少需要四個，然後是您想要的批次或行數。

Okay.

好的。

And (inaudible) the average selling price that you've been discussing.

以及（聽不清）您一直在討論的平均售價。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

It would be immersion.

這將是沉浸式的。

Yes.

是的。

It will be an immersion tool.

這將是一個沉浸式工具。

So, you could multiply all this by between, say, EUR25 million and EUR30 million.

因此，您可以將所有這些乘以 2500 萬至 3000 萬歐元。

So, quite substantial.

所以，相當可觀。

Yes.

是的。

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

Well, these are very cheap machines in view of the value that they have.

好吧，鑑於它們的價值，這些機器非常便宜。

I (inaudible).

我（聽不清）。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's very cute.

那很可愛。

The next question is from Mr.

下一個問題來自於先生。

Gunnar Plagge.

貢納普拉格。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, hello.

是的你好。

Nomura.

野村。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I wanted to ask a question about R&D.

我想問一個關於研發的問題。

I understand here that you have a flexible business model that -- and through efficiency you can reduce R&D without touching strategic programs.

我在這裡了解到，你有一個靈活的商業模式——通過效率，你可以在不觸及戰略計劃的情況下減少研發。

But -- and the last part of the overall R&D is contributed by the supply chain.

但是——整體研發的最後一部分是由供應鏈貢獻的。

So, do you have a feeling what the aggregated R&D budget looks this year compared to last year?

那麼，與去年相比，您是否覺得今年的研發預算總額如何？

And could you describe how the supply chain is coping with this difficult situation this year?

您能否描述一下今年供應鍊是如何應對這種困難局面的？

Yes.

是的。

This is a good question.

這是一個很好的問題。

So, we were on a run rate last year, I would say, of about EUR125-ish million per quarter.

因此，我想說，我們去年的運行率約為每季度 1.25 億歐元。

We're trying to go now EUR115 million, EUR118 million, so it's about a EUR10 million savings.

我們現在正努力達到 1.15 億歐元、1.18 億歐元，因此節省了大約 1000 萬歐元。

It is not a full impact on what you call the supply chains, that is the contractors.

這並沒有完全影響你所說的供應鏈，也就是承包商。

In a sense that we do about EUR5 million of the savings just by our own self, using less wafers, being more efficient at the numbers of prototypes that we're building, which costs a lot of money.

從某種意義上說，我們僅靠自己就節省了大約 500 萬歐元，使用更少的晶圓，在我們正在構建的原型數量上更有效率，這會花費很多錢。

The other EUR5-ish million is an impact on our contractors, who are in fact at this moment, to be honest, half of it, EUR2.5 million per quarter, would be contractors which are temporary workers, basically.

另一個 500 萬歐元對我們的承包商有影響，事實上，說實話，其中一半，每季度 250 萬歐元，基本上是臨時工的承包商。

So, they're not really contractors in a sense of adding value.

因此，從增加價值的角度來看，他們並不是真正的承包商。

They are contractors in helping us source engineers.

他們是幫助我們尋找工程師的承包商。

And then the other -- the rest, EUR2.5 million, would be from those very large institutions.

然後另一個 - 其餘的 250 萬歐元將來自那些非常大的機構。

So, in other terms, our EUR10 million saving per quarter has been spread and it should not have any strategic impact on them.

因此，換句話說，我們每季度節省的 1000 萬歐元已經分攤，不應該對他們產生任何戰略影響。

Just to clarify, I mean, when we talk about flexibility in R&D, it is not that we source the R&D from our supplier base that also provides modules for manufacturing.

澄清一下，我的意思是，當我們談論研發的靈活性時，並不是說我們從我們的供應商基地採購研發，這些供應商也提供製造模塊。

So, it is R&D flex, but it is from let's say temporary agencies.

所以，它是 R&D flex，但它來自臨時機構。

Like you have engineers that are in a kind of a super manpower kind of organization that we source.

就像您的工程師在我們採購的一種超級人力組織中一樣。

So, that is not that this is R&D that we pay through the regular supply chain.

所以，這並不是說這是我們通過常規供應鏈支付的研發費用。

There's only one instance where it is really significant and that is with our supplier Carl Zeiss.

只有一個例子非常重要，那就是我們的供應商 Carl Zeiss。

They do do R&D, but their R&D is basically in the cost of the lens.

他們確實做研發，但是他們的研發基本上都在鏡頭的成本上。

Okay.

好的。

And just coming back on services, could you give us a little bit more granularity on whether it's more the upgrade revenues or the time and materials side which is (inaudible) the timing?

回到服務上，您能否更詳細地說明是升級收入還是時間和材料方面（聽不清）？

Well, the time and material is the biggest part of sales.

好吧，時間和材料是銷售的最大部分。

It's about 75% of total service revenue.

它約佔總服務收入的 75%。

That's more stable.

這樣更穩定。

The spare parts and the field upgrades, that is much more dependent on where the customer needs are, and also more subject to cost reduction projects that are run by our customers.

備件和現場升級更多地取決於客戶的需求，也更受我們客戶運行的成本降低項目的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, I think we've used up our allotted time.

女士們先生們，我想我們已經用完了分配給我們的時間。

If you were unable to get through on the call and still have a question, please feel free to contact the Investor Relations Department.

如果您無法接通電話但仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部。

On behalf of Eric and Peter, I'd like to thank you for joining the call and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我代表 Eric 和 Peter，感謝你們加入電話會議，我們期待下個季度與你們交談。

Operator, if you could formally close the call out for us, we would appreciate it.

接線員，如果您能正式結束我們的通話，我們將不勝感激。

Of course, sir.

當然，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2009 first quarter conference call.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2009 第一季度電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating and you may disconnect your line now.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開您的線路。