艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2006 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Morning. This is Tom McGuire, Head of Communications at ASML. Welcome to our investor and media call and webcast. The subject is ASML’s 2006 first-quarter results according to U.S. GAAP. Here with me are Chief Executive Officer, Eric Meurice, and Chief Financial Officer, Peter Wennink.

早晨。我是 ASML 通訊主管湯姆‧麥奎爾 (Tom McGuire)。歡迎參加我們的投資者和媒體電話會議和網路廣播。主題是 ASML 根據美國 GAAP 公佈的 2006 年第一季業績。和我一起的還有執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長 Peter Wennink。

ASML draws your attention to the message on today’s press release regarding forward-looking statements.

ASML 提請您注意今天的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的資訊。

This call will be 60 minutes. On our website at ASML.com you can find our press release, a brief presentation, and financial reporting with figures in U.S. GAAP and in IFRS.

本次通話將持續 60 分鐘。在我們的網站 ASML.com 上，您可以找到我們的新聞稿、簡短介紹以及包含美國數據的財務報告。GAAP 和 IFRS。

And now, ASML CEO, Eric Meurice, will speak.

現在，ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 將發表演說。

Thank you, Tom. Good afternoon. Good morning. Thank you all for attending our call. Before we start the Q&A session, I would like to spend a bit of time on four messages. The first message is a disappointment. The other three messages are positive pieces of news.

謝謝你，湯姆。午安.早安.感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，我想花一點時間講一下四個訊息。第一則訊息令人失望。其餘三則訊息都是正面訊息。

The disappointment first. We, indeed, missed our Q1 expectations on the top line and the net income by about 10%, as you have noticed. However, the issue responsible for this miss was a delay -- the technical delay of the production of two 1400 machines which were supposed to be delivered in the quarter, which in fact were delivered respectively on April 5 and April 13.

首先是失望。正如您所注意到的，我們第一季的營業收入和淨收入確實比預期低了約 10%。然而，造成這次未能按時交付的問題是延遲——原定於本季度交付的兩台 1400 台機器的生產因技術原因延遲，實際上分別於 4 月 5 日和 4 月 13 日交付。

The issues were technical. One of the machines was delayed because of a tight special specification requested by the customer, and the other machine had a [validity] problem, which got resolved within a week.

這些問題都是技術性的。其中一台機器因為客戶要求的嚴格特殊規格而延誤，另一台機器出現[有效性]問題，但在一周內解決。

Clearly, therefore, we are not happy having missed our top line expectations. But in other terms the reasons for it is well understood and not recurring. These two machines’ prices are above €20m. That explains the full burden. But this is the first of four messages, the disappointment.

因此，顯然，我們對未能實現預期收入感到不滿。但從其他角度來說，原因很容易理解，並且不會再發生。這兩台機器的價格均超過2000萬歐元。這解釋了全部負擔。但這是四條訊息中的第一條，令人失望。

But now, the three positive pieces of news. First one is that our execution in Q1, apart from the two machine slip, was in fact much better than expected. First of all, we did mention at the beginning of the quarter that we were expecting some turns, which is business with a very, very short lead time, much smaller than the production lead time.

但現在，有三個積極的消息。首先，除了兩台機器的失誤外，我們在第一季的執行情況實際上比預期的要好得多。首先，我們在本季初確實提到過，我們預計會出現一些轉折，即業務的交付週期非常非常短，比生產交付週期要短得多。

We were able to capture, in fact, three to five of those. And this is why we have reported 51 units shipment in the quarter, although we guided on 48. So we are very, very happy with the possibility that we have had to meet additional strong demand and got additional sales, but also increased customer satisfaction.

事實上，我們能夠捕獲其中的三到五個。這就是為什麼我們報告本季出貨量為 51 台，儘管我們的預期是 48 台。因此，我們非常高興我們能夠滿足額外的強勁需求並獲得額外的銷售，同時也提高客戶滿意度。

Second good news here on Q1 execution is the gross margin. We guided that 38 to 39, and we have executed at 40%, which shows a fairly good profitability on a lower ASP mix. Again, that’s a message of robustness of our profitability and capability to make money on a different volume or different mix.

第一季執行情況的第二個好消息是毛利率。我們預計該比例為 38 至 39，並且已執行 40%，這表明在較低的平均售價組合下盈利能力相當不錯。再次，這體現了我們的獲利能力的穩健性以及透過不同數量或不同組合賺錢的能力。

Also happy in Q1 we are on our performance on the 1700. You have heard that we have now delivered the first 1700 machine, which is the only machine in the industry capable of 45 nanometer node. This machine was completed in Q1 and we were able to ship early April.

我們對第一季在 1700 的表現也感到滿意。大家已經聽說了，我們現在已經交付了第一台1700台機器，這是業界唯一一台能夠達到45奈米節點的機器。這台機器於第一季完成，我們能夠在四月初出貨。

The other point of execution is visible also in the market, where we are now counting seven customers in Japan. We got a significant order by a new Japanese account during Q1.

另一個執行點也體現在市場上，目前我們在日本有七家客戶。我們在第一季從日本的一個新客戶那裡獲得了一筆重要的訂單。

And the last point I’d like to talk about in terms of execution is our success in implementing, in less than nine months, a shift program in production, which enables us to work 24 hours a day, seven days a week or will enable us to do so. This shift program required approval by trade unions and our employees, required significant hiring, and still requires significant training. This program was set in motion on February 2 per plan.

關於執行情況，我想談的最後一點是，我們在不到九個月的時間內成功實施了生產輪班計劃，這使我們能夠每週 7 天、每天 24 小時工作，或者將使我們能夠這樣做。這個輪班計劃需要得到工會和我們員工的批准，需要大量招聘，並且仍然需要大量培訓。該計劃已於2月2日按計劃啟動。

So, again, the first piece of good news is good execution in Q1, apart from these two machines.

因此，除了這兩台機器之外，第一個好消息就是第一季的執行情況良好。

The second piece of good news concerns the outlook for Q2. Indeed, the outlook for Q2 is strong to very strong, particularly if you measure by our billings expectations. We are guiding at 64 units, which translates in total sales, including service, of above €850m for the second quarter. This would make it a record quarter for the Company in its 20-year history. Clearly this quarter will be good sales and obviously profitability.

第二個好消息與第二季的前景有關。事實上，第二季的前景強勁甚至非常強勁，特別是如果按照我們的帳單預期來衡量的話。我們預計銷量為 64 輛，這意味著第二季包括服務在內的總銷售額將超過 8.5 億歐元。這將使本季成為該公司 20 年歷史上創下紀錄的季度。顯然本季的銷售業績良好，獲利能力也明顯增強。

But also good news in this quarter is that we expect a sustained level of bookings for a continued positive trend into the second half. We are not expecting an overheating set of orders. We are expecting, in fact, the trend to continue, thus building slowly the expected growth on the total year.

但本季的另一個好消息是，我們預計預訂量將保持穩定，下半年將繼續呈現正面趨勢。我們並不期望出現過熱的訂單。事實上，我們預期這一趨勢將會持續下去，從而緩慢實現全年預期成長。

Why are we so confident about this sustained trend? First of all, we have significant amount of quoting activity. We have to come back to 2004 to compare the same level of quoting activity as what we are facing today.

我們為什麼對這持續趨勢如此有信心？首先，我們有大量的報價活動。我們必須回到 2004 年，比較我們今天面臨的相同水準的報價活動。

We also do not believe in the overheating as these quoting activities are based on requests by customers for very short lead time projects. And usually this is a measure of customers requiring capacity for identified demand. And when the demand [for a customer] is identified, this is a proof, basically, of minimum overheating, just CapEx investment for leads. And this is what is happening now

我們也不相信過熱，因為這些報價活動是基於客戶對非常短的交付週期專案的要求。通常這是衡量客戶對已確定需求的容量要求的標準。當確定了客戶需求後，基本上就是最低限度過熱的證明，只是對潛在客戶的資本支出投資。這就是現在正在發生的事情

Additionally, less than 50% of this quoting activity is memory-driven. And I understand that all of us are concerned about potential flash overinvestment. And clearly we confirm that, at this moment, this is not what we are looking at and that the level of quote activity and the level of bookings that we expect in Q2 will have a normal profile which covers the different segments - DRAM, flash, foundry and IDM.

此外，不到 50% 的引用活動是由記憶驅動的。我知道我們所有人都擔心潛在的過度投資。並且我們明確確認，目前這不是我們所關注的，並且我們預計第二季度的報價活動水平和預訂水平將具有正常的概況，涵蓋不同的部分 - DRAM，閃存，代工和IDM。

This was the second piece of good news, of the Q1 execution. Q2 outlook is strong. The third piece of good news, before I lead it to questions, is our future. And we are fairly happy, fairly comfortable, fairly optimistic, due to two measurable factors. One is on our execution.

這是第一季執行的第二個好消息。第二季前景強勁。在我提出問題之前，第三個好消息是我們的未來。由於兩個可衡量的因素，我們相當高興、相當舒適、相當樂觀。一是我們的執行情況。

We are seeing now a maturation of the immersion process development at our customers. This was publicized by certain numbers of those customers who are recording now a stable and low level of defect density of immersion process using our different machines shipped in the past year. As you may remember, we have 14 immersion tools in the market at this moment. And we’re very happy to see a maturation of the usage of those machines by our customers, which bids very well for the future and confirms a first half ’07 production ramp of immersion in semiconductor business.

我們現在看到客戶的浸入式製程開發日趨成熟。一些客戶已經證實了這一點，他們使用我們去年發貨的不同機器，記錄了浸沒過程的穩定和低缺陷密度。您可能還記得，目前市面上有 14 種浸入式工具。我們非常高興地看到客戶對這些機器的使用日趨成熟，這對未來有很大幫助，也證實了 2007 年上半年半導體業務的產量將大幅提升。

The second bit of good news is the fact that we are facing discussions to supply on 21 out of 24 fab line -- or new fab line projects which are being planned for 2006, 2007. So I repeat, 24 new fabs, new fab lines. Out of this 24 we are bidding on 21 of them. This is a very good number, a very high number. This is also a quality number.

第二個好消息是，我們正在商討為 24 條晶圓生產線中的 21 條供貨，或為計劃於 2006 年和 2007 年實施的新晶圓生產線項目供貨。所以我再說一遍，24 個新晶圓廠，新晶圓廠生產線。在這 24 個中，我們正在對其中的 21 個進行競標。這是一個非常好的數字，一個非常高的數字。這也是一個品質數字。

Out of those 24 projects, 16 are memory, out of which eight of those projects are 100% flash, three are hybrid, that is equal to flash or DRAM, and five are DRAM. So, again, a very balanced portfolio of new projects, very high numbers of new projects, on which we expect a significant market share.

在這 24 個項目中，有 16 個是內存，其中 8 個項目是 100% 閃存，3 個是混合的，即等同於閃存或 DRAM，5 個是 DRAM。因此，新項目組合非常均衡，新項目數量非常多，我們預期這些項目將佔據相當大的市場份額。

So on these four messages, one disappointment, three pieces of good news, I would like to leave it to Tom to introduce the Q&A session. Tom?

因此，關於這四個訊息、一則失望、三條好消息，我想讓湯姆來介紹問答環節。湯姆？

Okay. When asking a question, please identify yourself and your organization. Also, please ask one question and limit it to a short follow-on question. Can we have the first question, please?

好的。提問時，請表明您的身分和您所在的組織。另外，請提出一個問題並將其限制為一個簡短的後續問題。我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Thank you, Mr. McGuire. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. The first question is from Mr. Nav Sheera, Lehman. Go ahead please, sir.

謝謝你，麥奎爾先生。 [操作員指示]。第一個問題來自雷曼的 Nav Sheera 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Nav Sheera from Lehman. I have a question about your gross margin. The first quarter gross margin of 40% was way above expectations. And I just wanted to ask whether you feel there’s a limit to that 40% because you’re shipping a lot more tools in the second quarter and your guidance is yet again to 39 to 40%.

非常感謝。先生們，下午好。來自雷曼的 Nav Sheera。我對您的毛利率有疑問。第一季毛利率為40%，遠高於預期。我只是想問一下，您是否認為 40% 有一個限制，因為您在第二季度運送了更多的工具，而您的指導再次是 39% 到 40%。

And just a quick follow on to that is are you still seeing conservative ordering patterns from foundry and IDM customers, which is what you said in previous phone conferences? Thank you.

簡單問一下，您是否仍然看到代工廠和 IDM 客戶的保守訂購模式，正如您在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣？謝謝。

Thank you very much, Nav. A good question. First of all, regarding the gross margin, clearly we are managing the Company with a target of 40% gross margin. We have said this now for nearly two years. The objective is to create growth and to maximize what we call our natural market share. And this will be our focus for the next set of quarters.

非常感謝，Nav。好問題。首先，關於毛利率，顯然我們管理公司的目標是40%的毛利率。我們已經說了快兩年了。我們的目標是創造成長並最大化我們所謂的自然市場份額。這將是我們下一季的重點。

We are, of course, having a little difficulty to manage to a target of 40%. Sometimes makes it a bit difficult. Sometimes it helps. Sometimes it doesn’t. In Q1 we were very happy, in fact, to perform on the mix and also on the cost structure.

當然，我們要達到 40% 的目標還是有點困難的。有時會有點困難。有時它會有幫助。有時則不然。事實上，我們對第一季的產品組合和成本結構表現非常滿意。

In Q2 our mix will be a bit less rich, theoretically, on the margin as we introduce the 1700 in significant volume, the 1700 being a new product, carrying with it a bit more cost warranty-wise and, I would say, start-up cost-wise which leads to have an average margin of the portfolio, at least at the beginning, to be a bit less than our 40% margin.

在第二季度，我們的產品組合在理論上將不那麼豐富，因為我們將大量推出 1700，1700 是一種新產品，在保固方面會帶來更多的成本，我想說，在啟動成本方面，這導致產品組合的平均利潤率，至少在開始時，會略低於我們的 40% 的利潤率。

Regarding our conservatism, it looks that, as I said, most of the -- not most, a large part of the quote activity is concerning the IDM and the foundry. Clearly the IDM and the foundry statistically are still ordering less as a percentage of sales than their historical best.

關於我們的保守主義，正如我所說，大部分（不是大部分），大部分報價活動都與 IDM 和代工廠有關。顯然，從統計數據來看，IDM 和代工廠的訂單佔銷售額的百分比仍然低於歷史最高水準。

So, in other terms, you could argue with some statistics that IDM and the foundry are under investing. And again, I repeat, you could argue and you have to look at some historical curves to say that. And we are seeing more activity on those two segments at this moment, which hasn’t yet translated into firm orders, but could. And that is part of our optimism for the rest of the year.

因此，換句話說，你可以用一些統計數據來反駁IDM和代工廠的投資不足。我再重複一遍，你可以爭論，但你必須看看一些歷史曲線才能這麼說。目前，我們看到這兩個領域的活動增加，雖然尚未轉化為確定的訂單，但有可能。這是我們對今年剩餘時間感到樂觀的一部分。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question, Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs. Go ahead please, sir.

下一個問題是馬修·蓋爾（Matthew Gehl），高盛。請繼續，先生。

Yes. Actually, I wanted to ask a question about immersion, but just first a clarification. Was there an immersion tool actually recognized as revenue in Q1?

是的。實際上，我想問一個關於沉浸感的問題，但首先需要澄清一下。第一季是否有沉浸式工具實際確認為收入？

No, we have -- and I know there was a bit of confusion here, probably our fault. We said that we will be ready for delivery of the 1700 in Q1, which is the case. We made the tool available to the customer. The customer has to agree and sign up every aspect of the spec. We never dared guide on this tool and in particular because it depended on the customer signing the specification. So we didn’t guide to have it in the revenues for the quarter.

不，我們有——我知道這裡有些混亂，這可能是我們的錯。我們說過我們將在第一季準備好交付 1700 輛，事實也確實如此。我們向客戶提供了該工具。客戶必須同意並簽署規範的每個方面。我們從來不敢指導這個工具，特別是因為它依賴客戶簽署的規範。因此，我們沒有將其計入本季的收入。

Okay. And then, that leads to my --

好的。然後，這就引出了我的——

But it did ship in the first week of April.

但它確實在四月的第一周發貨了。

Okay. Great. That leads to the next question then, because if I look at the increase in backlog attributed to immersion, it’s just under 120m in the year, equate to an ASP in your backlog for immersion tools, it looks to be just under €24m. If I look back at the backlog at the end of Q4, you had a backlog ASP for immersion of over €26m. So just interested if there were some dynamics going on in Q1 where the immersion tools you were booking were actually lower ASP. Is that €24m figure closer to what the long-term ASP is going to be in the initial tools, or higher ASP, or what exactly was going on there?

好的。偉大的。這就引出了下一個問題，因為如果我看一下由於沉浸式技術而增加的積壓訂單，那麼今年的數量略低於 1.2 億，相當於沉浸式工具積壓訂單中的平均銷售價格略低於 2400 萬歐元。如果我回顧第四季末的積壓訂單，您會發現沉浸式服務的積壓平均銷售價格超過 2600 萬歐元。所以我只是想知道第一季是否存在一些動態，您預訂的沉浸式工具實際上的平均售價較低。2400 萬歐元這個數字是否更接近初始工具中的長期平均售價，還是更高的平均售價，或者到底發生了什麼事？

We have seen average ASP -- the tool list price is 29.5. And at this moment we expect to ship only the 1700i tools for the time, and only a bit later in the game we will come back to the 1400i and we can explain why the production logic. So I would say at the beginning we will get into a 29.5m list price discounted. Therefore, the price for customers will hover around €23 to €25m.

我們已經看到了平均 ASP——工具標價為 29.5。目前，我們預計暫時只推出 1700i 工具，稍後我們才會回到 1400i，我們可以解釋生產邏輯的原因。因此我想說，一開始我們就會以 2950 萬的折扣價出售。因此，客戶的價格將徘徊在 2,300 萬歐元至 2,500 萬歐元左右。

However, it’s going to be highly difficult for you to figure that out in the different bookings and billings numbers that we may publish, because some of the revenue recognitions will be different depending on the different conditions of specifications and payment terms that we allow the customers. So you may have sometimes recognition of 80% of it for a period of six months, and then 20% later, etc., etc. This type of accounting necessities may be necessary, depending again on the specification requirements of the customer.

然而，在我們可能發布的不同預訂和帳單數字中，您要弄清楚這一點會非常困難，因為某些收入確認會有所不同，具體取決於我們允許客戶的不同規格條件和付款條件。因此，你可能有時會在六個月內識別出 80% 的內容，然後一段時間後識別出 20% 的內容，等等。這種類型的會計必需品可能是必要的，這又取決於客戶的規範要求。

Okay. So you’re not expecting, as immersion becomes more of a volume runner order for your customers, that they’re going to be able to push the ASP even below the €24m level?

好的。所以，隨著沉浸式體驗對您的客戶來說越來越成為一種銷售驅動因素，您不認為他們能夠將平均銷售價格壓低至 2,400 萬歐元以下嗎？

No. At this moment -- well, again, life is an issue of competition. But, as you know, we at this moment are under competitive pressure, not so much on price but on specifications. When our competitors will be able to introduce machines for the same nodes, which we expect to be in 2007, the discussion will be whether their machine has advantages or not compared to our specification. And we will discuss and start the activities on spec improvement and that type of work, rather than thinking that there is going to be a price war in this market sector.

不。此時此刻——好吧，再說一次，人生就是競爭的問題。但是，如您所知，我們目前面臨的競爭壓力不是價格壓力，而是規格壓力。當我們的競爭對手能夠推出相同節點的機器時（我們預計在 2007 年），討論的重點將是他們的機器與我們的規格相比是否具有優勢。我們將討論並啟動有關規格改進和類似工作的活動，而不是認為這個市場領域會發生價格戰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Nicolas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。請繼續。

Yes. Hi there. It’s Nicolas Gaudois from Deutsche Bank. First question on immersion markets and then I’ve got a question on lead times as follow up. On immersion, Eric, effectively now you’ve got good visibility for the year with your backlog and orders at hand, and your guidance, your competitor, Nikon, is guiding to 15 unit shipments this year.

是的。你好呀。我是德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。第一個問題是關於沉浸式市場，然後我還有一個關於交貨時間的問題。埃里克，就沉浸感而言，實際上，現在您對今年的積壓訂單和手頭的訂單有了很好的了解，而您的指導方針，您的競爭對手尼康，今年的出貨量預計為 15 台。

I’m just curious if you could refine for us what you see as the total available market for immersion tools in ‘06/’07 which we view as being comprised of those IDMs in memory and logic will need to be of R&D and [pilot] line capacity, and then some NAND flash volume production requirements as well for sub-55 nanometer.

我只是好奇，您是否可以為我們詳細說明一下您認為 2006/2007 年浸沒式設備的總可用市場，我們認為該市場由內存和邏輯領域的 IDM 組成，需要研發和 [中試] 生產線產能，然後是一些 NAND 閃存批量生產需求以及 55 納米以下的產能。

Of course, Nicolas, a very difficult question, as usual. The 15 units that Nikon has announced would be supposedly an R&D project, as nobody will be in production in ’06. So this adjusts to our 20, 25 forecast. And as we maintained last time, we plan even for more depending on the results of the current ramping.

當然，尼古拉斯，像往常一樣，這是一個非常困難的問題。尼康宣布的 15 台設備據稱是研發項目，因為 2006 年不會有任何一台投入生產。因此這符合我們 20 年、25 年的預測。正如我們上次所說，根據當前成長的結果，我們計劃做更多的事情。

This would be -- the additional 15 from Nikon will certainly be a duplication by customers or customers needing to have security. Say, 25 to 32, they’re probably good enough to satisfy the R&D needs of the world. So the additional 10 to 15 from Nikon will be, I repeat, a way to secure the technology.

這將是——尼康額外提供的 15 個肯定會被客戶或需要安全性的客戶重複購買。比如說，25到32個，可能就足以滿足世界的研發需求了。因此，我再說一遍，尼康額外提供的 10 到 15 個將是確保技術安全的一種方式。

The production, however, ramping on such machines is not any different than normal technology and normal node ramping. It’s not because it’s immersion that you will see a different view of that. Last experience we have on the 1400 machine is, correct me if I’m wrong here, but the certificate says we shipped about 70 units in a year and a half. That is right? Yes, yes, [69].

然而，此類機器的生產爬坡與正常技術和正常節點爬坡並沒有任何區別。並不是因為沉浸其中，你才會看到不同的觀點。我們對 1400 機器的最後經驗是，如果我錯了請糾正我，但證書說我們在一年半內運送了大約 70 台。是嗎？是的，是的。 [69]

So, 70 units in 15, 16 months. And I think it would not be ridiculous to use the same approach here of assessing the market in the -- as these machines, immersion machines, may have a throughput which is similar or a bit lower than the 1400s which I compare with at this moment.

因此，15、16 個月內產量為 70 個單位。我認為在這裡使用相同的方法來評估市場並不荒謬——因為這些機器，浸入式機器，其吞吐量可能與我目前比較的 1400 相似或略低。

And when I say we did 70 units in the first 15 months of activity, I also meant not 100% share. Probably 70%-ish share on this segment. So I suppose you should take a calculator, take 70 units, divide it by seven and have an opportunity to understand what would be a total market within 15 months of start of production.

當我說我們在活動的前 15 個月內完成了 70 個單位時，我的意思並不是 100% 的份額。該部分份額大概為 70% 左右。所以我想你應該拿一個計算器，取 70 個單位，除以 7，就有機會了解在開始生產後 15 個月內整個市場會是什麼樣子。

Right. So that would be ’07 overlapping in ’08, I am assuming, yes?

正確的。那我假設 07 年和 08 年是重疊的，對嗎？

That is correct. And at this moment we feel very optimistic about the fact that the customers are now going to ramp. They will ramp -- some of them may ramp as early as Q4 ’06. Some of them will ramp as late as Q2 ’07. And, of course, you have a mixture of when do they really start production.

沒錯。目前，我們對客戶數量即將增加感到非常樂觀。他們將會加大生產——其中一些公司可能早在 2006 年第四季就加大生產。其中一些最遲將在 2007 年第二季開始量產。當然，你還不知道他們什麼時候真正開始生產。

Okay. And I guess one major difference is still, correct me if I’m wrong, but there were 1400, so dry, or maybe [6NA] effectively was used for logic ramp as well as all of memory, while I would assume that for immersion we’re again talking really about NAND flash here for a good year or more before DRAM gets even closer to this immersion in ’08 and beyond?

好的。我想，一個主要的區別仍然存在，如果我錯了請糾正我，但有 1400 個，所以乾燥，或者也許 [6NA] 有效地用於邏輯斜坡以及所有內存，而我認為對於浸入式，我們再次談論的是 NAND 閃存，持續一年或更長時間，然後 DRAM 在 2008 年及以後更接近這種浸入式？

I would make a bet with you that IDM will start fairly fast. Today, to achieve integration for mobile phones, we are getting significant requests on our 1700s, and we have the same things in graphic control. Much more than ever. In fact, at this very moment, we are having significant customer pressure to be re-slotted ahead of some memory people -- sorry, some IDM requesting to be slotted ahead. So I would not bet on them being late.

我敢打賭，IDM 很快就會啟動。今天，為了實現與手機的集成，我們在 1700 上收到了大量請求，在圖形控制方面我們也遇到了同樣的問題。比以前多得多。事實上，此時此刻，我們正面臨著巨大的客戶壓力，要求我們重新安排在某些記憶體人員之前——抱歉，是一些 IDM 要求安排在前面。所以我不認為他們會遲到。

Okay. And just to close on that, we see logic IDMs for 45 nanometer or is it still 65?

好的。最後，我們看到的是 45 奈米的邏輯 IDM，還是還是 65 奈米？

No, it’s impossible for me explain on the phone, and I need a specialist on that one. But it’s not node, it’s pitch, and it’s the design critical dimension. If you take an equivalent, when you talk 45 nano nodes, you may talk a pitch of 60 to 70 nano nodes for a logic guy. However, they still require a 1700 because of some critical dimension in which they can’t handle with current technology. So it’s a bit complicated. But for these reasons, even if they have a much, much laxer pitch, they still need these capabilities in orders.

不，我不可能在電話裡解釋，我需要一位專家來解釋。但它不是節點，而是間距，它是設計關鍵尺寸。如果你採取等效措施，當你談論 45 奈米節點時，對於邏輯人員來說，你可能會談論 60 到 70 奈米節點的間距。然而，他們仍然需要 1700，因為某些關鍵尺寸他們無法用現有技術處理。所以有點複雜。但出於這些原因，即使他們的音調更加寬鬆，他們仍然需要這些能力。

Okay. Great. We can take that offline. And then briefly on the lead time side, if you just make calculations on your backlog, minus what you plan to ship in Q2, it’s about 26 units basically to be delivered in Q3 already booked. That would be below forecast or consensus, yet if using more activity, as we think you are for non-critical layer tools, are you actually seeing a lowering of lead times and maybe of some programs contributing to that, actually allowing you to ship much more turns or book orders in Q2 effectively for Q3 shipments than in the last quarter that is past?

好的。偉大的。我們可以將其離線。然後簡要地談談交貨時間方面，如果你只是計算你的積壓訂單，減去你計劃在第二季度發貨的訂單，那麼基本上已經預訂了將在第三季度交付的 26 個單位。這將低於預測或共識，但如果使用更多的活動，正如我們認為您用於非關鍵層工具那樣，您是否真的看到交貨時間的降低，也許一些程序對此有所貢獻，實際上允許您在第二季度發送更多的周轉或預訂訂單，以便有效地為第三季度的出貨量提供比上一季度更多的訂單？

Well, in fact, very insightful. The answer is absolutely yes. We are, in fact, in some ways astonished by how fast our customers are taking our project of lead time reduction. It’s probably due to us doing a good sales job, but also to them having serious needs in the current environment. We are seeing extreme requests for short turn business.

嗯，事實上，非常有見地。答案是肯定的。事實上，我們在某種程度上對客戶如此迅速地接受我們縮短交貨時間的項目感到驚訝。這可能是因為我們的銷售工作做得很好，也是因為他們在當前環境下有迫切的需求。我們看到了對短期業務的極端需求。

And this is why, although we have guided a, let’s say, a sustained level of bookings in Q2, we believe that most of these will be Q3 shipments and not much Q4. And we have to now become accustomed to a backlog which will be not covering the usual six to nine months that we used to have, but a backlog which covers three to six theoretically.

這就是為什麼，儘管我們預計第二季的預訂量將保持穩定，但我們認為其中大部分將在第三季出貨，而不會在第四季出貨太多。我們現在必須習慣積壓，這種積壓不再像以前那樣涵蓋六到九個月，而是理論上涵蓋三到六個月。

Yes. And can I answer that, Nicolas, in the sense that if you look at the backlog composition, the backlog grew to about 1.6b. But 85% of the backlog is shippable in the next six months, which is clear evidence of the lead time going down. And 85% in a situation where there is pressure on the delivery and a backlog that is growing we have not seen before.

是的。尼可拉斯，我可以回答這個問題嗎？如果你看一下積壓訂單的組成，你會發現積壓訂單已成長至約 16 億。但85%的積壓訂單可以在未來六個月內出貨，這明顯表示交貨時間正在縮短。85% 的情況是我們以前從未見過的，交付壓力巨大，積壓訂單不斷增加。

Okay. That’s very clear. Thank you very much.

好的。這非常清楚。非常感謝。

The next question is from Timothy Arcuri of Citigroup. Go ahead please, sir.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。請繼續，先生。

Hi. I’m a big believer, obviously, that there’s a rise in capital intensity over time. But I guess, as I’m looking at your shipments and if I assume that the tool shipments in the second half of ’05 become capacity in the first half of ’06, and if I assume that the tool shipments in the first half of ’06 become capacity in the back half of ’06, it appears that if I look at that shipment compare that the shipments in the first half of ’06 are up roughly 35% versus the back half of ’05.

你好。顯然，我堅信，隨著時間的推移，資本密集度會上升。但我想，當我查看你們的出貨量時，如果我假設 2005 年下半年的工具出貨量會成為 2006 年上半年的產能，如果我假設 2006 年上半年的工具出貨量會成為 2006 年下半年的產能，那麼如果我查看這些出貨量，約了超過半年的 2006 年出貨量，那麼 2006 年 2006 年

So, if I annualize that, I’m getting an annualized capacity addition of roughly 70%, something like that. And historically that’s up in the range where we typically have a peak in industry utilization rates. Is that not the right way to look at it? And is there some reason why it could be different this time? Thanks.

因此，如果我將其按年計算，我將獲得大約 70% 的年化產能增量，諸如此類。從歷史上看，這通常處於行業利用率達到高峰的範圍內。這不是正確的看待方式嗎？那麼這次的情況會有什麼不同嗎？謝謝。

At this moment, your analysis will be probably to be done by segment and trying to get out all these R&D tools. So if you take all our numbers without that, we could probably start seeing if there is a trend. You also potentially take annualized things which are usually not to be annualized. The memory guys, flash in particular, would book in one or two quarters, and nothing in the next ones. So you can’t also trend that.

此時，您的分析可能會分部分進行，並嘗試找出所有這些研發工具。因此，如果你把我們所有的數字都去掉，我們可能就可以開始看到是否有趨勢。您也可能將通常不應年度化的事情視為年度化的事情。記憶體領域，尤其是快閃記憶體領域，將在一兩個季度內預訂完畢，但在接下來的幾個季度中則沒有任何預訂。所以你也無法預測這個趨勢。

So today the only piece of data we can give you is the following. First is we are still having utilization curve which improves. In fact, you will probably hear from some customers that they are above their theoretical 100%. So we’re still really hitting those guys in this particular foundry environment, but also in DRAM for some reason. So we are having a serious need for capacity.

所以今天我們唯一能給你的數據如下。首先，我們的利用率曲線仍在不斷改善。事實上，您可能會聽到一些客戶說，他們的業績已經超過了理論上的 100%。因此，我們仍然在特定的代工環境中打擊這些人，但出於某種原因，也在 DRAM 中打擊他們。所以我們迫切需要容量。

Now, if you take -- if you calculate, which you probably just did and I could not follow exactly your math, but if you calculate the overhang of everything we’re planning to ship in Q2 -- Q1 and Q2, you take out the 1700 which is a significant amount of business, you will see that still is compatible to a 10% unit growth of semiconductors. So you will have to trust me on that because we have done that to be sure. And if, if is a big word, the unit growth of semiconductor continues at about 10%, then we are not building overhang.

現在，如果你進行計算，你可能剛剛做了，我無法完全理解你的計算，但如果你計算我們計劃在第二季度（第一季度和第二季度）出貨的所有產品的過剩產量，你拿出 1700 個，這是一個相當大的業務量，你會發現這仍然與半導體 10% 的單位增長相兼容。所以你必須相信我，因為我們已經這麼做了。如果，如果是一個大詞，半導體的單位成長率繼續保持在 10% 左右，那麼我們就不會出現過剩。

Okay. I guess I’ll have to trust you on that one. I guess, as a follow up, do you think that your memory customers are front-half loading their CapEx? So, if you look at a customer like Samsung, do you think that these customers are spending and ordering more tools in the first half of the year than they will during the second half of the year, based upon what they’re talking about with you? Thanks.

好的。我想在這一點上我必須相信你。我想，作為後續問題，您是否認為您的記憶體客戶正在前期承擔其資本支出？那麼，如果您看看像三星這樣的客戶，根據他們與您談論的情況，您是否認為這些客戶在上半年的支出和訂購的工具比下半年更多？謝謝。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

The next question is from Mehdi Hosseini, FBR. Go ahead please, sir.

下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。請繼續，先生。

Yes. Good morning. I have a couple of questions, actually as a follow up to the question -- last question. You talked about 16 new fab lines that you’re bidding on, 16 out of 24. These 16 fab lines are memory. And talking about the difference this year compared to 2004, in the sense that bookings could be sustainable, what gives you the confidence that these fab lines, these new 16 fab lines, would actually turn into orders?

是的。早安.我有幾個問題，實際上是對最後一個問題的後續提問。您談到了您正在競標的 16 條新晶圓廠生產線，共計 24 條生產線中的 16 條。這16條生產線都是記憶體。說到今年與 2004 年相比的區別，從訂單可持續的意義上來說，是什麼讓您有信心這些生產線，這 16 條新的生產線，實際上會轉化為訂單？

You just said that ’06 CapEx was front-end loaded, so would that imply that these 16 fab lines would begin to place orders in the second half or early ’07? And again, what gives you the confidence that we won’t run into overcapacity as some of the new pessimists are arguing? And I have two other follow-up questions.

您剛才說 2006 年的資本支出是前期投入的，那麼這是否意味著這 16 條晶圓​​廠生產線將在 2007 年下半年或年初開始下訂單？再說了，您有什麼信心相信我們不會陷入產能過剩的境地，正如一些新的悲觀主義者所主張的那樣？我還有另外兩個後續問題。

Okay. Good. Let me repeat the numbers first. So we’ve got in front of us 24 new fab lines, which have been discussed. Out of 24, we are working on 21. Out of those 21, 16 are memory -- sorry, out of the 24, 16 are memory, eight are flash, three are hybrid, five are DRAM. So in fact we are working on 21 products, just to correct you.

好的。好的。讓我先重複一下這些數字。因此，我們面前有 24 條新的晶圓生產線，這些都已經討論過了。總共 24 個，我們正在處理其中 21 個。在這 21 個中，有 16 個是內存 - 抱歉，在這 24 個中，有 16 個是內存，八個是閃存，三個是混合的，五個是 DRAM。所以實際上我們正在研發 21 種產品，只是修正一下。

Okay. So now, on those 21, by memory, this is the first time, at least in my history which is short here, a year and a half or so, that I see so many projects. I’m going to have to probably come back to you but, by memory, I think we were talking mostly on about 10-ish new fab lines about a year ago.

好的。所以現在，就這 21 個項目而言，根據我的記憶，這是我第一次看到這麼多項目，至少在我短暫的一年半左右的職業生涯中是如此。我可能得再回覆你，但根據記憶，我認為大約一年前我們主要談論的是大約 10 條新的晶圓廠生產線。

So here, the first message that you get from those statistics is there are much more new fab lines than before. Okay? So at least you’ve got a factor of double.

因此，從這些統計數據中得到的第一個訊息是，新的晶圓廠生產線比以前多得多。好的？所以至少你得到了雙倍的因素。

Your next question was what is our degree of confidence to translate those fab lines into the order.

您的下一個問題是，我們對將這些生產線轉化為訂單的信心程度。

And how much of that order has already been placed?

已經下了多少訂單？

Yes. And clearly, at this moment, no orders have been placed. When I say no, not significant, say five or ten units. They are being discussed now, mainly. First shipments will be end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4. Q4 is really when you start having real volume.

是的。顯然，目前還沒有下達任何訂單。當我說不，不重要時，說五個或十個單位。目前主要正在討論這些問題。首批貨物將於第三季末至第四季初出貨。Q4 才是真正開始擁有真實銷售的時候。

We believe that they will translate into between 10 and 20 units per quarter. And that is additional to the normal business, I would say, that we usually do, which is not having new fab per se but just improving or increasing the capacity of existing fab.

我們相信，每季的銷售量將達到 10 至 20 個單位。我想說，這是我們通常所做的正常業務的額外內容，即我們通常不會建造新的晶圓廠，而只是改善或增加現有晶圓廠的產能。

What’s the probability of success? I can’t answer but if you see my body language, it’s positive.

成功的機率有多大？我無法回答，但如果你看到我的肢體語言，那是正面的。

Sure.

當然。

You cannot judge this with the history. You have to judge. The question, however, is are those fab lines really going to happen, that is again overheating and at some point they will pull the plug or they will delay for six months to a year or something.

你不能用歷史來判斷這一點。你必須做出判斷。然而，問題是這些生產線真的會發生嗎？這又一次過熱，到了某個時候，他們會停止生產，或者將生產推遲六個月到一年左右。

Our degree of confidence that they would not [hit this] high. Whoever is not memory, we understand need the capacity. This is the IDM and the foundry. We think they can do and continue without capacity.

我們對他們的信心程度不會很高。誰沒有記憶，我們就知道需要容量。這就是IDM和代工廠。我們認為，即使沒有能力，他們也能做到並繼續下去。

Regarding the memories, we think that if there is an overheating in flash because a lot of people are going in this market, the potential investment will happen in Q4, or Q1 or Q2 ’07. And probably, if there is an overheating, which you will be the judge here to understand whether the flash growth curve will or will not cover this capacity installed, this problem may have to be resolved at the end of ’07 or ’08. But we don’t see this overheating in capacity to be a short-term one.

至於記憶體，我們認為，如果由於大量參與者進入該市場而導致快閃記憶體市場過熱，那麼潛在的投資將發生在第四季度，或 2007 年第一季或第二季度。並且可能，如果出現過熱現象，您將在這裡進行判斷，以了解快閃記憶體成長曲線是否會覆蓋此安裝容量，這個問題可能必須在 2007 年或 2008 年底解決。但我們認為產能過熱不會是短期現象。

Sure. And just two other follow-up questions. One of your major equipment -- or, actually, component vendor, [Frimer], was talking about microprocessor customers and some foundries are actually evaluating immersion. I want to put a focus on microprocessor. Do you see any kind of a change in their strategy in terms of dry at 45 nanometer versus immersion?

當然。還有兩個後續問題。你們的主要設備之一——或者實際上是組件供應商之一——[Frimer] 正在談論微處理器客戶，而一些代工廠實際上正在評估浸入式技術。我想重點關注微處理器。您是否看到他們在 45 奈米乾燥與浸沒方面的策略有任何變化？

First of all, I don’t think I will be able to comment for Intel, if that is a bit your question. Let me, however, clarify that for us. We are very happy with a different approach to the next generation architectures. Either you use immersion to get there, and obviously we are shipping tools -- immersion tools to everybody, clearly.

首先，如果這是你的問題，我想我無法代表英特爾發表評論。不過，請容許我為我們澄清一下這一點。我們對下一代架構的不同方法感到非常高興。要嘛你使用沉浸式技術來實現這一目標，顯然我們正在向每個人提供沉浸式工具。

And the second thing is if you can do a new generation by double patterning, you basically therefore do not need immersion but you need double numbers of machine. So either/or, we feel pretty happy with the different versions of life.

第二件事是，如果你可以透過雙重圖案化進行新一代，那麼基本上你不需要浸沒，但你需要雙倍數量的機器。所以，無論怎樣，我們對不同的生活都感到非常高興。

On immersions we have a leadership, as you know, from our 14 machine already shipped, and our NA. On double patterning, we think we also have leadership because our overlay is second to none. So, all in all, we feel -- we will feel very, very happy to be -- to go both ways.

如您所知，在沉浸式體驗方面，我們擁有領導地位，我們已發貨 14 台機器，並且擁有 NA。在雙重圖案化方面，我們認為我們也擁有領先地位，因為我們的覆蓋層是首屈一指的。所以，總而言之，我們感到──我們會感到非常非常高興──能夠雙向合作。

I just have one more --

我還有一個——

Excuse me, sir. We’re going to have to move on to someone else. We said one follow-on question. We’ll take the next question, Operator.

對不起，先生。我們必須轉向其他人。我們提出了一個後續問題。接線員，我們來回答下一個問題。

It’s from Titus Menzies, Jefferies & Company. Go ahead please.

它來自 Titus Menzies, Jefferies & Company。請繼續。

Good morning, guys, or good afternoon. Just some color on the end customer market right now. Looking at the backlog, there’s a shift between IDMs to the foundries, is that a result of foundry spending picking up momentarily at the expense of IDMs, or is it just a significant pull-back in terms of maybe a [PC store] as to why IDM spending has curtailed in foundries or remaining benign, just picked up in terms of overall booking orders for the Q2/Q3 period?

大家早安，或是下午好。目前只是有關最終客戶市場的一些資訊。從積壓訂單來看，IDM 向代工廠的支出有所轉移，這是由於代工廠支出暫時回升而犧牲了 IDM 的支出，還是僅僅是 [PC 商店] 的大幅回調，至於為什麼 IDM 在代工廠的支出有所縮減或保持良性增長，只是 Q2/Q3 期間的整體預訂訂單有所回升？

I don’t think we can answer that question. We have not -- in fact, we haven’t looked too much in this. We only can tell you that both segments is firm. But it is true, they are not the same size as memory, so you clearly would expect seesaw in demand of those.

我認為我們無法回答這個問題。我們還沒有——事實上，我們還沒有對此進行過多的關注。我們只能告訴你，這兩個部分都很堅定。但事實是，它們的大小與記憶體不同，因此您顯然會期望對它們的需求出現蹺蹺板。

The second point to notice is foundry is very, very, very, very, very short term at this moment. So sometimes you see them in the bookings number or the backlog, but that’s not even relevant to the billings. In other terms, we have turned so many foundry business in Q4 within the quarter, but it’s never happened to be in the backlog. And we did the same in Q1, and we expect to do the same in Q2. So very, very complicated for you to look at the backlog trend on foundry as is.

要注意的第二點是，目前代工的週期非常非常非常非常短。因此，有時您會在預訂數量或積壓訂單中看到它們，但這與帳單甚至無關。換句話說，我們在第四季內完成瞭如此多的代工業務，但從來沒有出現過積壓的情況。我們在第一季也做了同樣的事情，預計在第二季也會做同樣的事情。因此，對於您來說，查看代工積壓趨勢是非常非常複雜的。

But it is clear, I’d like to add there, that foundry was particularly weak in ordering in the second half of, let’s say, in Q2 and Q3 of last year. They were about 17% of the backlog in Q4 because we noticed very clearly that at the end of Q3 the utilization of foundries went up, and you saw the immediate reaction.

但我想補充的是，很明顯，鑄造廠在去年下半年，比如說第二季和第三季的訂單特別少。它們約佔第四季度積壓訂單的 17%，因為我們非常清楚地註意到，在第三季末，代工廠的利用率上升了，並且您看到了立即的反應。

Now it’s 22% of the backlog. And again, that is a reflection of their high utilization rates. So it is not uncommon to see coming out of, let’s say, downturn quarters, which we clearly had last year, that foundry was the overflow of the semiconductor industry in that sense grows in the backlog that we are currently seeing.

現在積壓量已達 22%。這再次反映了它們的高利用率。因此，在走出去年明顯經歷的低迷時期後，看到代工成為半導體行業的過剩現象並不罕見，從這個意義上講，我們目前看到的積壓訂單有所增加。

Thank you. I have one more follow-up question. Going forward from here, when you talk about immersion versus double patterning, just [inaudible] of patterning, obviously you’ll need, as well as more marks, you also need more powerful lasers. Have you already got a flavor or feel on the pricing environment that you will have to price into your ASPs or new machines which will incorporate double patterning? Would you pass the entire higher ASP onto the end customer or do you have to absorb that into your own costs?

謝謝。我還有一個後續問題。從這裡開始，當您談論浸入式與雙重圖案化時，只是[聽不清楚]圖案化，顯然您不僅需要更多的標記，還需要更強大的雷射。您是否已經對必須將價格納入 ASP 或包含雙重模式的新機器的定價環境有了一定的了解或感受？您會將整個更高的 ASP 轉嫁給最終客戶嗎？還是必須將其計入自己的成本中？

Well, let me try to answer this one. We think at this moment, and again, it’s ASML and this may change depending on customer pressure and push, and as you know, we are very flexible to customer demand but, at this moment, we believe that 2007 is an immersion year. And I think double patterning will be useful potentially for some R&D tests and checking, etc. But production-wise, we expect it to be an immersion year.

好吧，讓我嘗試回答這個問題。我們認為，目前，這是 ASML，這可能會根據客戶的壓力和推動而改變，正如你所知，我們對客戶需求非常靈活，但目前，我們認為 2007 年是沉浸式的一年。我認為雙重圖案化對於一些研發測試和檢查等可能會很有用。但從生產角度來看，我們預計這將是沉浸式的一年。

2008 we expect it to be another immersion year because we will have introduced in 2007 our new 1.35 NA type machine, which we expect will continue the immersion success. 2009 will be a time where EUV and double patterning will give options to customers. And by then the double patterning machines should be extremely sophisticated in terms of throughput and overlay, and this is our new generation question.

我們預計 2008 年將是另一個浸沒式年，因為我們將在 2007 年推出新的 1.35 NA 型機器，我們預計它將延續浸沒式的成功。 2009 年將是 EUV 和雙重圖案為客戶提供選擇權的一年。到那時，雙重圖案機器在吞吐量和覆蓋率方面應該非常複雜，這是我們的新一代問題。

So, in other terms, to answer your question, double patterning in production before two years may not be an [inaudible] bet at this moment.

因此，換句話說，回答您的問題，在兩年之前進行雙重模式生產目前可能不是一個[聽不清楚]的選擇。

And on top of that, customers will only need it for their critical layers. And this means that double patterning will not be done on the whole device, but only on a, I would say, small percentage of [total] layers.

最重要的是，客戶只需要將其用於關鍵層。這意味著雙重圖案化不會在整個設備上進行，而只會在一小部分（我想說）層上進行。

That’s on the triple layers only? And, of these, late ’08, so ’09 at best for laser?

那隻是三層嗎？其中，2008 年末，所以 2009 年對雷射來說最好嗎？

Yes. So the impact, your suggested impact, that will have a big impact on our cost base, according to our own calculations, [positive].

是的。因此，根據我們自己的計算，您所建議的影響將對我們的成本基礎產生重大影響，[是正面的]。

Thank you. Thank you very much, gentlemen, for your time.

謝謝。非常感謝各位先生抽空。

The next question is from Jan Willem Berghuis, Kempen & Co. Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自 Kempen & Co. 的 Jan Willem Berghuis。請繼續。

Yes. Good afternoon. You mentioned volume production of -- or 70 units of volume production tools in the next 15 months in immersion. I was wondering if you could shed some light on the timing of these orders.

是的。午安.您提到了批量生產——或者在未來 15 個月內以沉浸式方式批量生產 70 套量產工具。我想知道您是否可以解釋一下這些訂單的時間。

You also mentioned in the press release that some of the acceleration might take place already in 2006, so do you expect a significant amount of these 70 units to be booked already in 2006, or does that depend on customer evaluation in the second half of the year, or does that depend on the customer ramp-up plan specifically? Can you shed some light on that?

您也在新聞稿中提到，部分加速可能在 2006 年就已經發生，那麼您預計這 70 台設備中的大部分會在 2006 年被預訂，還是取決於下半年的客戶評價，或者取決於客戶的加速計劃？你能解釋一下嗎？

Yes. Thank you very much for allowing me to clarify this, because this is important. We do expect customers to play with our 1700 for the whole of Q2 and a big part of Q3 before they jump into planning production and putting more orders on the 1700 or its successor. So do not expect Q2 immersion orders, and we probably will start having some orders for immersion to ramp at the end of Q3. That will be the natural way.

是的。非常感謝您允許我澄清這一點，因為這很重要。我們確實希望客戶能夠在整個第二季和第三季的大部分時間裡試用我們的 1700，然後再開始計劃生產並向 1700 或其後續產品下更多訂單。因此，不要指望第二季會有浸入式訂單，我們可能會在第三季末開始收到一些浸入式訂單。那將是自然的方式。

In order to manage this, we will have to plan ahead enough supply chain to cover very short leads on those products, which would allow us, and this is why we have been consistent here, to ship another five units in ’06 for production, and of course start the planning of the famous 70 units in ’07. So, in other terms, booking very, very low Q2 or none for immersion, Q3 continuous development, some orders coming, and then potential deliveries still in Q4 on short lead-time projects.

為了解決這個問題，我們必須提前規劃足夠的供應鏈，以涵蓋這些產品的非常短的交付週期，這將使我們能夠在 2006 年再運送 5 個單位用於生產，當然，我們還將在 2007 年開始規劃著名的 70 個單位。這也是我們一直堅持這樣做的原因。因此，換句話說，第二季的預訂量非常低或沒有，第三季將繼續開發，一些訂單即將到來，然後短交貨期專案的潛在交付仍將在第四季度進行。

Okay. Maybe one follow-up on the planned R&D immersion tools. Are they expected to ship, let’s say, evenly divided between Q3 and Q4, or do you expect another distribution?

好的。也許是計畫中的研發沉浸式工具的後續行動。預計他們的出貨量是否會在第三季和第四季之間平均分配，還是預計會有另一種分佈？

Q3 is a big quarter. Q3 -- that is Q2 is one, Q3 is 1X and Q4 is less than one. I don’t have to give you any -–

第三季是一個重要的季度。Q3——即 Q2 為 1，Q3 為 1X，Q4 小於 1。我不需要給你任何——

Yes.

是的。

Q3 will shipment-wise be the biggest quarter for the 1700.

從出貨量來看，第三季將是 1700 出貨量最大的一個季度。

Okay. So it will be more than 10 and then the remainder is in Q4, correct?

好的。所以它會超過 10，然後剩餘的在 Q4，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from [Herman Betten] [inaudible]. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自 [Herman Betten] [聽不清楚]。請繼續。

Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. Just a small follow-up question about the foundries.

是的。謝謝。午安.我只是想問關於代工廠的一個小問題。

Can you speak up, Herman?

你能大聲說出來嗎，赫爾曼？

Yes. I’m working with a strange microphone on top of my head. I don’t think it’s working. But anyway, let’s try. In foundries in Q1, with €50m of revenue, were 8% [inaudible]. I understood that that was partly due to the orders in Q2 and Q3 of last year, and I was wondering if you could [inaudible] give me guidance for the percentage of revenue [inaudible].

是的。我頭頂上有一個奇怪的麥克風，正在工作。我覺得它不起作用。但無論如何，讓我們試試看吧。第一季的代工廠收入為 5,000 萬歐元，佔 8% [聽不清楚]。據我了解，這部分是由於去年第二季和第三季的訂單，我想知道您是否可以 [聽不清楚] 給我有關收入百分比的指導 [聽不清楚]。

As you can see, the timing difference between when we get an order from a foundry customer and when it’s shipped is five to six months. So that means that what you see as shipped in Q1 is actually booked in Q2 and Q3 of last year. So there is going to be -- going forward, clearly when you look at the backlog where the foundry is now 22% of the backlog value, therefore Q2 and Q3 you will see an increased level of foundry shipments in our sales.

正如您所看到的，我們從代工客戶那裡收到訂單和發貨之間的時間差異是五到六個月。這意味著您看到的第一季發貨的貨物實際上是去年第二季和第三季預訂的。因此，展望未來，當您查看積壓訂單時，很明顯代工廠現在佔積壓訂單價值的 22%，因此在第二季度和第三季度，您會看到我們的銷售中代工廠出貨量有所增加。

Just a follow-up. The expectations you have for, let’s say, capacity orders in Q2, is that also based on the expectations in foundries or do you have capacity?

只是後續行動。您對第二季產能訂單的預期也是基於代工廠的預期嗎，還是您有產能？

Foundries are not the only customers that have more capacity.

代工廠並不是唯一擁有更多產能的客戶。

But you’re right. In fact, Q4 was a bit higher than expected in foundry. Q1 is a bit lower, and Q2 is going to be back high.

但你是對的。事實上，第四季的代工業務比預期要高一些。Q1 略低，Q2 將回升。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

The next question is from [Jas Ackerman], Bloomberg. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自彭博社的[Jas Ackerman]。請繼續。

Hi there, gentlemen. Just, Mr. Meurice, to go back to your statements on the positive outlook going into the second half, I’m just curious. I missed a bit at the beginning, so I do apologize if this has been asked before. On the gross margin, 40% was a good level. What’s the level you see in the quarters ahead in ’06?

嗨，先生們。莫里斯先生，回到您關於下半年積極前景的陳述，我只是很好奇。我一開始就忽略了一點，所以如果之前有人問過這個問題，我深感抱歉。就毛利率而言，40%是一個不錯的水平。您認為 2006 年未來幾季的水平會是怎樣？

And, linked to that, if you look at shipments, Q1/Q2 was more round 110. Should we look at a similar number in Q3/Q4 or what’s your feeling there?

與此相關，如果你看一下出貨量，第一季/第二季的出貨量大約是 110。我們是否應該看看第三季/第四季的類似數字，或者您對此有何感覺？

For the margins, yes, we said we try to manage to come in at 40% margin. So in case the volume or the mix is adverse, we would expect a lower case at 38, but we don’t want to go above 40 because we are still delivering growth. So we do expect Q2 to be at between 38 and 40, and we expect the rest of the year to be again guided in the same type of range.

對於利潤率，是的，我們說過我們會努力實現 40% 的利潤率。因此，如果數量或組合不利，我們預計會低於 38，但我們不希望超過 40，因為我們仍在實現成長。因此，我們確實預計第二季的銷售額將在 38 至 40 之間，我們預計今年剩餘時間的銷售額將再次處於同一範圍內。

Your second question on the 110 at the beginning?

您一開始關於 110 的第二個問題是什麼？

Well, if you shipped 51 in Q1, if I’m not mistaken, and you expect to ship 64 in Q2, and link that to all your statements on being positive going ahead, the trend is continuing, I think you said, should we look at a similar level of shipments in the second half of the year, i.e. another 110, give or take, or is there something else at play here?

好吧，如果我沒有記錯的話，如果您在第一季度發貨了 51 台，並且您預計在第二季度發貨 64 台，並且將其與您所有關於未來積極的聲明聯繫起來，那麼這種趨勢還在繼續，我想您說過，我們是否應該看看下半年的類似出貨量水平，即再增加 110 台，或者這裡還有其他因素在起作用？

It’s too early to guide on the total year. Clearly we feel comfortable that, on the total year, there is going to be significant growth compared to last year. So, we did €2.5b. We will have significant growth compared to that. So I prefer not to tell you what significant growth is, but it’s above 10%.

現在預測全年業績還為時過早。顯然，我們感到有信心，全年與去年相比將有顯著的成長。因此，我們的利潤為 25 億歐元。與此相比，我們將實現顯著的成長。所以我不想告訴你顯著的成長是什麼，但它肯定超過 10%。

Jas, you can find some links into the fact that we received orders for 62 units in Q1. Like I said, there is a five to six month delay between ordering and between shipment, so you can extrapolate more or less that good order intake in Q1 and Q2 will have an effect on the total year. Without being very specific on what the total year is going to be, but clearly the order intake is driving good shipments going forward.

Jas，您可以找到一些鏈接，表明我們在第一季收到了 62 台的訂單。就像我說的，訂購和發貨之間有五到六個月的延遲，所以你可以大致推斷，第一季和第二季的良好訂單量將對全年產生影響。雖然不能具體說明全年的銷售情況，但顯然訂單量正在推動未來的良好出貨量。

Clearly. At least more than 10% sales growth. That’s helpful. Thanks very much.

清楚地。銷售額至少成長10%以上。這很有幫助。非常感謝。

The next question is from Ben Pang, Prudential. Go ahead please. Mr. Pang, are you there?

下一個問題來自保誠的 Ben Pang。請繼續。彭先生，您在嗎？

In terms of the 16 projects that you mentioned for the various memory applications - hybrid, DRAM, flash - is there a difference in the served available market for -- specifically for immersion between those different projects?

就您提到的各種記憶體應用（混合、DRAM、快閃記憶體）的 16 個項目而言，這些不同項目在服務可用市場（特別是沉浸式體驗）方面是否存在差異？

They are all different. First of all, remember immersion is only one or two layers.

它們都是不同的。首先，記住浸沒只有一層或兩層。

Right. I want to find out, like in the hybrid, do they use more immersion or it’s still going to be one or two layers?

正確的。我想知道，就像在混合中一樣，他們是否使用更多的沉浸式技術，還是仍然只有一層或兩層？

A very complicated question. I can’t answer. Yes, it is depending on numbers of layers and numbers of machines. As you know, DRAM is a very, very specific production environment which is a bit more complex to tune, and flash seems to be easier to tune, with designers, etc., etc. So I don’t think I can answer the question.

一個非常複雜的問題。我無法回答。是的，這取決於層數和機器數量。如你所知，DRAM 是一個非常非常特定的生產環境，調整起來有點複雜，而快閃記憶體似乎更容易調整，有設計師等等。所以我認為我無法回答這個問題。

Okay. A quick follow-up. The 42 nanometer resolution images that you mentioned in your release there, is that done at a customer site?

好的。快速跟進。您在發布中提到的 42 奈米解析度影像是在客戶現場完成的嗎？

The 42 is done at our site.

42 在我們的站點完成。

Okay. And the final question, again, just a follow-up, on the 1700i that you have shipped to your customer, when is the expectation that you will actually receive data back in terms of the imaging, like how will you know that you have been able to achieve the customer [expects]? What’s the earliest expectation?

好的。最後一個問題，同樣，只是一個後續問題，關於您發送給客戶的 1700i，您預計什麼時候能夠真正收到成像方面的數據，例如，您如何知道您已經能夠實現客戶的期望？最早的預期是什麼？

I have a gun on my head on that one, so the answer is extremely soon.

我頭上頂著槍，所以答案是極快的。

End of Q2 is possible?

Q2 有可能結束嗎？

Well, clearly it has to be in Q2, yes.

嗯，顯然它必須在第二季度，是的。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

The next question is from Mark FitzGerald, Banc of America. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬克·菲茨傑拉德。請繼續。

Thank you. I was curious your i-line seems to be hanging in there incredibly strongly. Are you guys taking market share, and is there any explanation for the strength, given the technology shift that’s going on?

謝謝。我很好奇，你的 i-line 似乎非常強勁。你們是否正在佔領市場份額？考慮到正在發生的技術變革，這種優勢有何解釋？

Absolutely. About last year, same time, we said that we will introduce two lower-cost machines. One was the KRF760 is the code name, one was the 400 i-line. And we said we had a chance for success in the i-line business at a higher rate than we used to, because of the customers’ need for better overlay in i-line.

絕對地。大約在去年同一時間，我們說我們將推出兩款成本較低的機器。一個是代號為KRF760，一個是400 i-line。我們表示，由於客戶需要更好的 i-line 覆蓋，我們在 i-line 業務中取得成功的機會比以前更高。

Again, the resolution is given, but in order to put the layers on top of the other, overlay becomes important even on the lower resolution type machine. So our TWINSCAN i-line became, from one day to the other, in addition to the cost savings activities that we had on it, a machine which had more potential. This took about six months; nine months for us to go and execute the sales job. And at this moment, we are very, in fact, encouraged by the win which you are seeing only the start of.

再次，給出了分辨率，但為了將各層放在另一層之上，即使在較低分辨率類型的機器上，覆蓋也變得非常重要。因此，我們的 TWINSCAN i-line 除了節省成本之外，還逐漸成為一台具有更大潛力的機器。這花了大約六個月的時間；我們花了九個月的時間去執行銷售工作。而此時此刻，我們其實對這場勝利感到非常鼓舞，儘管你們看到的只是勝利的開始。

Okay. And is that share basically coming at the expense of Canon, which basically that’s the only thing they’re really offering at this point?

好的。那麼，這一份額是否基本上是以犧牲佳能為代價的呢？而佳能基本上是目前他們唯一能提供的東西？

Yes. We are potentially gaining more market share out of Canon and out of Icom, etc.

是的。我們有可能從佳能、艾可慕等公司手中奪取更多的市場份額。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Pramanick, Moors & Cabot. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自 Moors & Cabot 的 Pramanick 先生。請繼續。

Yes. Hi, good evening. Two questions. One, how you’re planning to price 1900i. Are we going to see a €40m number on that?

是的。嗨，晚上好。兩個問題。一、您打算如何為 1900i 定價。我們會看到 4000 萬歐元這個數字嗎？

My more important question is, one of the interesting data coming out of this laser supplier yesterday is they are thinking that laser, or so-called [DPV] shipments could grow 25% year-over-year, the DPV portion of the [steppers] in ’06 over ’05. Is that remotely possible from your point of view?

我更重要的問題是，昨天這家雷射器供應商公佈的一個有趣數據是，他們認為雷射或所謂的 [DPV] 出貨量可能比去年同期增長 25%，2006 年 [步進機] 的 DPV 部分比 2005 年增長。從您的角度來看這可能嗎？

Sorry. On the 1900i, the price will be a 40% margin, so we will try to continue this. We are very happy. We have made some calculation on cost per layer. And we -- whatever price we can do on the 1900, it will still continue giving a cost scaling to our customers. So, in other terms, the price of the transistor or the price of the structure continues down at the same speed it used to. So, whatever the price is, throughput and scaling allows that.

對不起。1900i 的價格將有 40% 的利潤率，因此我們將嘗試繼續保持這種趨勢。我們非常高興。我們對每層的成本做了一些計算。而且我們 — — 無論 1900 的價格是多少，它仍將繼續為我們的客戶提供成本調整。因此，換句話說，晶體管的價格或結構的價格繼續以過去的速度下降。因此，無論價格是多少，吞吐量和擴展性都允許這樣做。

The bit on movie information that you got, on, you said ARF growth?

您獲得的有關電影的信息，您說的是 ARF 增長嗎？

No, it’s not really ARF, just DPV stepper growth. Somehow, the consensus, the viewpoint is that there could be -- DPV number of steppers could grow 25% in ’06 over ’05 and of course --

不，它實際上不是 ARF，只是 DPV 步進生長。不管怎樣，大家的共識和觀點是，2006 年 DPV 步進機的數量可能比 2005 年增長 25%，當然——

It looks a bit high to me in units. Remember we are -- be cautious here. We are the successful player trying to introduce products which have a higher price and a higher throughput, so we are not in the unit business so much. So what you got from any outside player is that there may be some unit growth somewhere else. We expect ASP growth and revenue growth more than we expect units of those types of products.

在我看來，單位有點高。請記住－在這裡要小心謹慎。我們是一家成功的企業，致力於推出價格更高、產量更高的產品，因此我們並不太專注於單位業務。因此，你從任何外部參與者那裡得到的資訊是，其他地方可能存在一些單位成長。我們預計平均售價的成長和收入的成長將高於我們對此類產品銷售的預期。

Would you be open to a 20% unit growth on DPV portion?

您是否願意接受 DPV 部分 20% 的單位成長率？

We cannot answer that. This is again directional on the year. We have to be -- to wait a bit until uncertainty [inaudible].

我們無法回答這個問題。這又為今年指明了方向。我們必須－等待一段時間，直到不確定性[聽不清楚]。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We just have time for one more, final question.

我們只剩時間再回答最後一個問題了。

Antoine Badel, Credit Suisse. Go ahead please.

瑞士信貸的安托萬·巴德爾 (Antoine Badel)。請繼續。

Yes. Hi. I want to ask a question about shipments in the second half. You said in your introductory comments that you were looking for continued trends throughout the year. I think [Simer] said yesterday they expected continued quarterly growth in laser shipments. And also your indication that Q2 bookings would ship in Q3 seems to suggest that Q3 could be flat, at least over Q2. So I guess my question is are you considering any other scenario for shipments this year other than continued, steady quarter-over-quarter growth until the end of the year?

是的。你好。我想問一下關於下半年出貨量的問題。您在開場白中說過，您正在尋找全年持續的趨勢。我認為 [Simer] 昨天表示，他們預計雷射器出貨量本季將繼續成長。而且您提到的第二季的訂單將在第三季出貨，這似乎表明第三季的訂單可能會持平，至少與第二季相比。所以我想我的問題是，除了到年底前持續穩定的環比增長之外，您是否考慮過今年出貨量的其他情況？

You are starting to put words in my mouth, quarter-to-quarter growth. We are clearly seeing a good Q2 and good Q3, which would be natural to say when we are able to guide on bookings. We cannot guide on Q4 at this moment. There is a lot of parameters on it. But I gave you two positive parameters.

你開始讓我說出季度環比增長這個詞語了。我們清楚地看到第二季和第三季表現良好，當我們能夠指導預訂時，這是很自然的說法。目前我們無法對第四季做出指導。它上面有很多參數。但我給了你兩個正面的參數。

One is those new fabs or fab lines are clearly going to hit Q4, Q1, Q2, etc. I also gave you a hint that we are still planning our additional immersion, and that that would only be Q4 if ever. But I also -- I gave you even if, and at this moment we have to give it a bit more time before we solidify. So in other terms, I confirm to you a good Q2, I confirm to you a good Q3. I’m not saying if it’s above or lower than Q2, but these are significant numbers. And I have to not comment on Q4 at this time.

一是這些新晶圓廠或生產線顯然將在第四季、第一季、第二季等達到高峰。我還暗示過，我們仍在計劃額外的沉浸式體驗，而且那隻會在第四季。但我也——我給了你即使，此刻我們必須給它更多的時間才能鞏固。換句話說，我向您確認 Q2 很好，我向您確認 Q3 很好。我不是說它是否高於或低於第二季度，但這些數字是重要的。我現在不能對第四季發表評論。

Okay. And a quick follow-up, if I may. Could you please tell us where you stand on lead times for i-line KRF, ARF and immersion, and when do you close the book on immersion shipments for ’06?

好的。如果可以的話，我想快速跟進一下。您能否告訴我們 i-line KRF、ARF 和浸沒式產品的交貨時間狀況，以及您何時結束 06 年浸沒式產品的出貨？

The theoretical answer is following immersion we are still in a nine month lead time. In standard machines - ARF, KRF - we are getting now to the six months that we discussed last year, and we have now this capability in place. But that is the theory. In practice, as I hinted at the beginning of the call, customers are overplaying this, and we have to try to hit now three months lead time also on a percentage of our production.

理論上的答案是，沉浸式體驗之後我們仍需要九個月的準備時間。在標準機器（ARF、KRF）中，我們現在已經達到了去年討論的六個月的目標，並且我們已經具備了這種能力。但這只是理論。實際上，正如我在通話開始時所暗示的那樣，客戶對此有些過度重視，我們現在必須嘗試在一定比例的產量上實現三個月的交貨時間。

And you still take immersion orders for this year, for shipment in ’06?

今年你們還接受 06 年出貨的浸沒式訂單嗎？

Certainly, certainly. And, as I said, we will take orders in Q3 for delivery in Q4.

當然，當然。正如我所說，我們將在第三季接受訂單，並在第四季交貨。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes the Q&A session. Thank you for attending.

問答環節到此結束。謝謝您的出席。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2006 first quarter conference call. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect now.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2006 年第一季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。