使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Tom McGuire. Sir you may start.
[操作員指示] 現在我想將會議交給湯姆·麥奎爾先生。 先生,您可以開始了。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Good afternoon and good morning. This is Tom McGuire, Head of Communications at ASML. Welcome to today's investor and Media Call and Web cast. The subject is ASML 2005 annual and Q4 2005 results, according to U.S. GAAP. Here with me are Chief Executive Officer, Eric Meurice, and Chief Financial Officer, Peter Wennink. ASML draws your attention to the message on today's press release regarding forward looking statements. This call will be 90 minutes, before we begin question and answer, ASML reiterates its commitment to the most complete, consistent, and transparent information about the Company and its operations.
下午好,早安。我是 ASML 通訊主管湯姆‧麥奎爾 (Tom McGuire)。歡迎參加今天的投資者和媒體電話會議和網路直播。主題是按照美國公認會計準則 (US GAAP) 的 ASML 2005 年年度業績和 2005 年第四季業績。和我一起的還有執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長 Peter Wennink。 ASML 提請您注意今天的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的資訊。本次電話會議將持續 90 分鐘,在我們開始問答之前,ASML 重申其致力於提供有關公司及其營運的最完整、一致和透明的資訊。
The message is, ASML will further continue transparency in public disclosures. In the United States, ASML conforms and will continue to conform to the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC. In the Netherlands the disclosure regime for publicly listed Company's such as ASML has recently changed. The Netherlands authority for the financial markets, AFM, is the newly appointed supervising authority for disclosure matters in the Netherlands. AFM says, there is only one legitimate way to disclose price sensitive information, that is by means of a press release. Until this new disclosure regime, ASML has followed SEC disclosure principals stating that price sensitive information should be widely disseminated. This includes, along side press releases, Web cast press and analyst conferences, as well as information available on the Company's website. To further ensure ASML's compliance with the new AFM regulations, we have amalgamated today's communication into a press release and this extended conference call and Web cast. Aimed at clarifying our press release, financial results or published information.
資訊是,ASML 將進一步保持公開揭露的透明度。在美國,ASML 遵守並將繼續遵守美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的規定。 在荷蘭,ASML 等上市公司的揭露制度最近發生了變化。荷蘭金融市場管理局 (AFM) 是荷蘭新任命的資訊揭露事務監管機構。 AFM表示,揭露價格敏感資訊的合法方式只有一種,那就是透過新聞稿。在新的揭露制度推出之前,ASML 一直遵循美國證券交易委員會的揭露原則,即價格敏感資訊應廣泛傳播。這包括新聞稿、網路新聞發布和分析師會議,以及公司網站上提供的資訊。為了進一步確保 ASML 遵守新的 AFM 規定,我們將今天的通訊合併為新聞稿和本次延長的電話會議和網路廣播。 旨在澄清我們的新聞稿、財務結果或已發布的信息。
On our website at ASML.com, you can find our press release, a brief presentation, and financial reporting with figures in U.S. GAAP and in IFRS. ASML reiterates its commitment to openness and transparency. ASML will continue to conduct investor relations and media relations through appropriate Company channels, including conferences, meetings, and interviews. And now, ASML CEO Eric Meurice will speak.
在我們的網站 ASML.com 上,您可以找到我們的新聞稿、簡介以及包含美國 GAAP 和 IFRS 數據的財務報告。 ASML 重申對開放和透明的承諾。 ASML 將繼續透過適當的公司管道開展投資者關係和媒體關係,包括會議、會面和採訪。現在,ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 將發表演說。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Thank you, Tom. Good morning and good afternoon. I will not take too much of your time. I think the record of this conference is question and answer. I wanted to underline three key messages coming from the -- our execution in the year 2005. First message is in fact, yes, one of strong execution. In 2005, where we had, in fact, a near complete cycle of the semiconductor unit market. We have shown and confirmed that we are capable now to generate profit, of course over cycle, but also at the low end of the cycle. Clearly, we've achieved this through three facets. One is our capability to weather the volume drop. I may remind the audience that the unit semiconductor unit market that went down from Q3 or 4 and started to recover at the end of Q3 or 5, which is basically a bit more than four quarters. Well, if you look at our performance in the year 2004/2005, we only had two quarters of low sales.
謝謝你,湯姆。早安,下午好。我不會佔用你太多的時間。 我認為這次會議的記錄就是問答。我想強調我們在 2005 年的執行中傳達的三個關鍵訊息。第一個訊息其實是強而有力的執行。 2005 年,半導體市場實際上已經經歷了一個近乎完整的周期。我們已經證明並確認,我們現在有能力創造利潤,當然在整個週期內,但也是在週期的低端。顯然,我們透過三個面向實現了這個目標。一是我們有能力承受銷量下降的影響。我可以提醒聽眾,半導體單位市場從第三季或第四季開始下滑,並在第三季或第五季末開始復甦,這基本上是四個多季度的時間。嗯,如果你看一下我們 2004/2005 年的業績,你會發現只有兩個季度的銷售額較低。
So the first key message is such, we are now able to weather the volume cycles, in particular, in lieu of our strong performance in technology orders. That is, the possibility of shipping to our customers new technology tools, which are not volume dependent, which are not end unit or dependent, but which are dependent on the need to go and transition to new technology. So first, capability to keep the volume high during the cycle. Second point is one of basic profitability improvement. Our capability to deliver a stable margin in spite of cyclical sales, capability to reduce our cost structure or our cost of goods to follow any price (variation) has made us deliver to our profitability targets. Again, at the high end of the cycle or at the low end of the cycle. Third point, our key focus on our cash conversion cycle has also allowed to prove a very strong performance in cash generations. You've seen we've been able to generate above 700 million euros of cash during the year and in a very consistent fashion. Whether we are talking about the gross quarter or a quarter where sales were reduced.
因此,第一個關鍵訊息是,我們現在能夠承受產量週期的影響,特別是考慮到我們在技術訂單方面的強勁表現。 也就是說,我們有可能向客戶運送新的技術工具,這些工具不依賴數量,也不依賴最終單元,而是依賴向新技術過渡的需要。因此,首先,能夠在循環過程中保持高音量。第二點是基本獲利能力的提升。儘管銷售週期性波動,我們仍能提供穩定的利潤,並能降低成本結構或使商品成本跟隨任何價格(變化)變化,這使我們能夠實現盈利目標。 再次,處於週期的高端或處於週期的低端。第三點,我們對現金轉換週期的重點關注也證明了我們在現金產生方面表現非常強勁。你已經看到,我們在這一年中已經能夠以非常穩定的方式產生超過 7 億歐元的現金。無論我們談論的是總銷售額季度還是銷售額下降的季度。
So, first message, strong execution, good company which delivers whenever, wherever we are on the cycle. Second key message is we are now sitting -- or, I would say jumping on the springboard for the future. Clearly customers are preparing and accelerating their transition to new technology, namely, the sub 15 nanometer or the 5 nanometer node technology. This is driven by a flash industry, which requires integration for new applications. This is also required for one shipped new generation of mobile phones and consumer environment of key acceleration of customer needs. Which positions us in an extremely favorably (assemblies) at this moment. The only machine company capable of taking orders and preparing machines for 45 nanometer technology.
因此,第一個訊息是,強大的執行力,優秀的公司,無論我們何時何地在周期中都能交付產品。第二個關鍵訊息是,我們現在正坐在──或者,我想說,正跳到未來的跳板上。顯然,客戶正在準備並加速向新技術的過渡,即 15 奈米以下或 5 奈米節點技術。這是由閃存行業推動的,該行業需要整合新的應用程式。 這也是新一代手機出貨量、消費環境加速顧客需求的關鍵。 這使得我們目前處於極為有利的地位(集會)。唯一一家能夠承接45奈米技術訂單並準備機器的機器公司。
So second message, a springboard for growth. And third message, we are happy to confirm that we are in a semiconductor typical upswing as proven by our very good bookings level in Q4, which translates in a solid growth of billings Q1 compared to Q4. Which also is underlined by a significant activities in turns business, turns business, which materialized in Q4 which was responsible for our billings being above expectations. But also turns business which continue into Q1 to be negotiated, which puts us into a situation where we can guide positively on a sustained bookings trend, well into Q1. In other terms, we expect our bookings level in Q1 to be at least the level of bookings that we have achieved in Q4.
第二個訊息是成長的跳板。第三條訊息是,我們很高興地確認,我們正處於半導體典型的上升趨勢中,這從我們第四季度非常好的訂單水平可以看出,與第四季度相比,第一季的帳單額穩步增長。這也突顯了第四季營業額、營業額業務的重大活動,這也是我們營業額超出預期的原因。但同時也使持續進入第一季的業務得以協商,這使我們能夠對持續的預訂趨勢做出積極的指導,並順利進入第一季。換句話說,我們預計第一季的預訂量將至少達到第四季度的預訂量水準。
So my three messages were, we are a company with strong execution, delivering cash and profit, we are a company which sits on a major opportunity when the emersion/45 nanometer technology with the company, a unique machine to address this market. And we are happy to confirm that the cycle will sustain significant sales in the first half at least of the year 2006. So on this, I'd like to leave it to questions.
所以我想傳達的三個訊息是:我們是一家執行力強、能夠產生現金和利潤的公司;我們是一家抓住重大機會的公司,可以利用 45 奈米技術,用獨特的機器來應對這個市場。我們很高興地確認,至少在 2006 年上半年,該系列摩托車的銷售將保持可觀的成長。因此,關於這一點,我想留給大家提問。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] One moment please for the first question. First question is from Nav Sheera, Citigroup. Go ahead, please sir.
女士們、先生們,現在,我們將開始問答環節。 [操作員指示] 請稍等片刻,回答第一個問題。第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Nav Sheera。請繼續,先生。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you, good afternoon gentleman. Eric, just a very top level question, please. Just judging by the speed of ram of your Immersion technology, you could be shipping anything between 10 and 15% of your unit shipments in 2006 as Immersion systems. I just want to ask how you see this actually rolling out across 2007. Do you see this becoming the dominant technology over the next couple of years.? Because this is a much faster rollout. then we remember when TWINSCAN came out in 2000. Thank you.
謝謝,先生,下午好。艾瑞克,請問一個非常高級的問題。僅根據您的沉浸式技術的記憶體速度來判斷,2006 年您可能會以沉浸式系統的形式出貨 10% 到 15% 的單位出貨量。我只是想問一下,您認為這項技術在 2007 年的實際推廣情況如何?您是否認為它會成為未來幾年的主導技術? 因為這是一個更快的推出。 然後我們記得 2000 年 TWINSCAN 問世的時候。謝謝。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes, thank you very much Nav for a very good question. Yes, we clearly see Immersion as the technology of choice for the next three or four years. Our long term forecast shows of a large share of the technology needs to be an Immersion in the next three years or so, you can probably assume about 40ish% of the market being Immersion. Clearly, we will not at this very moment guide on exactly when the ramp happens in 2007. Of course, you've seen our plan for 2006. We're planning to ship between 20 and 25 units and we do expect that 2007 will be a significant production ramp. However, this is a new technology. It is dependent as much on our machine capability as well as it is contingent on our customers I would say technology recipes. So none of us know exactly when the high volume ramp will start in 2007. Peter has something to had.
是的,非常感謝 Nav 提出這個非常好的問題。是的,我們清楚地看到 Immersion 是未來三四年的首選技術。我們的長期預測顯示,未來三年左右,很大一部分技術需要沉浸式體驗,你可以假設大約 40% 的市場是沉浸式體驗。顯然,我們現在還不能準確預測 2007 年產量何時會上升。當然,您已經看到了我們 2006 年的計劃。我們計劃出貨 20 到 25 台,我們預計 2007 年產量將大幅上升。然而,這是一項新技術。我想說,它不僅取決於我們的機器能力,還取決於我們的客戶的技術配方。因此,我們誰也不知道 2007 年什麼時候會開始實現產量大幅成長。彼得有話要說。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
One comment to that. Should you compare this to the TWINSCAN introduction in 2000 which was a way precise change which is more a dramatic and takes more time to be accepted by the industry while the Immersion is a reduction in feature size change, which basically happens every 18 months. We look at the ramp of our 1400, which is the 65 nanometer product, which has actually been the fastest RAM for a leading edge technology we've seen of other companies. Yes, we have -- if you want to compare a 1700 introduction, you'd better do it with a 1400 introduction and not so much with the inspection of the TWINSCAN as a product.
對此有一則評論。如果您將其與 2000 年推出的 TWINSCAN 進行比較,那是一種更精確的改變,它更具戲劇性,需要更多時間才能被業界接受,而 Immersion 則是特徵尺寸變化的減少,基本上每 18 個月發生一次。讓我們來看看 1400 的升級,它是 65 奈米產品,實際上是我們在其他公司見過的採用前沿技術的速度最快的 RAM。是的,我們有——如果您想比較 1700 的介紹,您最好將其與 1400 的介紹進行比較,而不是將其與 TWINSCAN 的產品檢查進行比較。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you for the answer, thats very clear. Just as a quick follow up. What's the lead time reduction on the Immersion systems now. Are you now looking at something close to six months, or is that ambitious still?
謝謝你的回答,非常清楚。只是作為快速跟進。現在浸入式系統的交付週期縮短了多少?您現在是否在考慮接近六個月的目標,或者這仍然是一個雄心勃勃的目標?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, yes. You understand that our target is to have everything under six months in terms of lead time. At this very moment, the first Immersion machine, the first 1700 Immersion machines are more in the nine months lead time environment. The difference between nine and six is only 30% and therefore, we are working to execute this extremely quickly.
嗯,是的。您了解我們的目標是將所有產品的交付週期控制在六個月以內。目前,第一台 Immersion 機器,首批 1700 台 Immersion 機器的交付週期為九個月。九和六之間的差異只有 30%,因此,我們正在努力非常快速地實現這一目標。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, sir.
下一個問題來自高盛的馬修‧格爾 (Matthew Gehl)。請說,先生。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Just to follow up on that question there, you mentioned, Peter, that the 1400 would be a good guide to Immersions I was hoping to just get a little bit more detail there. Can you give us some sense of the number or percentage of your sales in 2005 that were 1400 and how that's ramping in it's second major year here in 2006 so we can get a bit of a proxy for the Immersion tool ramp?
為了跟進這個問題,彼得,你提到 1400 將成為沉浸式體驗的良好指南,我希望在那裡獲得更多細節。您能否告訴我們 2005 年的銷售量為 1400 份,佔總銷售量的百分比,以及在 2006 年這個第二大銷售年中,銷售量是如何增長的,以便我們可以從中了解一下 Immersion 工具的增長情況?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
If you look at, I have to refer to the presentation that's on the Web site where we give -- where we give the breakdown of the sales and you basically have to add up 2005 for four quarters. If you look at the fourth quarter, 48% will stay direct shipments. The majority of that was the 1400 which was also for Q3 and for Q2, because in Q2 we started to introduce the 1400. So you could say that when a new product is introduced, it quickly takes up the majority of the shipments. Now, what would that mean for 2006? It is clearly dependent on our ramp plants for our customers, we have seen memory customers starting to ship or us starting to ship to our memory customers in 2005. Some of that will clearly go (inaudible) in 2006 with other customers in the memory space that did not take those tools in the year 2005 and will be added IBM's and some foundries. So, yes, ARF in the field, the 1400 is going to be a very important product for us in 2006. And you can expect that the ramp that started in 2005 is continuing to 2006. I'm -- at this moment cannot give you further more details on the unit numbers, but an expectation on the further ramp is very, very real.
如果你看一下,我必須參考我們在網站上提供的簡報——我們在那裡給出了銷售明細,你基本上必須把 2005 年四個季度的銷售額加起來。如果你看一下第四季度,你會發現 48% 的出貨量仍為直接出貨。其中大部分是 1400,也是在第三季和第二季度,因為我們在第二季開始推出 1400。因此,你可以說,當一種新產品推出時,它很快就會佔據大部分的出貨量。那麼,這對 2006 年意味著什麼?這顯然取決於我們為客戶建造的工廠,我們已經看到記憶體客戶在 2005 年開始出貨,或者我們開始向我們的記憶體客戶出貨。其中一些將在 2006 年明顯消失(聽不清楚),因為記憶體領域的其他客戶在 2005 年沒有使用這些工具,並且會增加 IBM 和一些代工廠。所以,是的,ARF 1400 將成為我們 2006 年非常重要的產品。而且您可以預期,2005 年開始的成長將持續到 2006 年。我 - 現在無法向您提供有關單位數量的更多詳細信息,但對進一步增長的預期是非常非常現實的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Just a quick follow up on a comment you made on turns. Can you give us an idea of how many turns orders you actually shipped then in Q4? And does the guidance for 48 in Q1 assume any turns -- I know you mentioned there could be some upside, but just interested in the actual 48 includes any assumptions on turns, or that would turns orders actually make the number higher than that?
好的。只是想快速跟進一下您對轉彎所作的評論。您能否告訴我們您在第四季實際出貨了多少訂單?第一季 48 的指導是否假設了任何轉變——我知道您提到可能會有一些上行空間,但我感興趣的是實際的 48 是否包括對轉變的任何假設,或者轉變訂單實際上會使數字高於這個數字?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
In Q4, we had about six to seven turns.
在 Q4 中,我們有大約六到七次轉變。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And that's new turns?
這就是新的轉變嗎?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That is five new. Four new. Sorry, four new and two used. And for Q1, we have assumed no turns. This is why we are guiding in our press release that this may happen.
那是五個新的。四個新的。抱歉,四個是新的,兩個是二手的。對於 Q1,我們假設沒有轉變。這就是我們在新聞稿中指導這種情況可能發生的原因。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Great. Thank you.
好的。偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Nicolas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes, Ivan, I guess just a little congratulation on the cash flow performance this year or after the last three years, I would say. In terms of questions, just focusing back on the cost side for a while. There is no mention, so far, from you be the last year of any incremental COGS savings be there of what you've achieved in 2005. It is the reason that you expect to achieve less this year than last, or is it simply a function that is strategically wise. You're effectively intending to pass a large portion of potential Cost Of Goods Sold savings to the pricing in order to secure incremental market share gains and in the long run obviously at some point be able to defend consistently higher margins.
是的,伊万,我想對今年或過去三年的現金流表現表示一點祝賀。就問題而言,暫時只關注成本方面。到目前為止,還沒有提到你們在去年相對於 2005 年實現的任何增量 COGS 節省。這是你們預期今年的業績會比去年少的原因,還是只是出於策略上的考量。您實際上打算將很大一部分潛在的銷售成本節省轉嫁到定價中,以確保增量的市場份額增長,並且從長遠來看,顯然在某個時候能夠持續保持較高的利潤率。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Thank you for your congratulations, Nicholas. No and yes. No we're not at the end of our curve of improvement on cost. In fact, we have significant number of projects on new frames. New frames mean new definitions of a frame which will yield even superior cost and value. We have also worked on the -- our cycle time, as you've heard two or three times, we are going for 30% savings on the cycle time. That definitely has an impact on cost. We also are running some projects of more aggressive sourcing, making use of worldwide sourcing on certain number of parts. So no, we are well into the project, but we do not see the end of it yet. We have significant curves savings for the next -- I'm reviewing -- for the next three years. Yes, we will use some of the savings to give back to our customers. And therefore, some of the savings will serve as being more aggressive price wise. And giving, I would say, volume opportunities through pricing. We are, and I repeat, managing the company at a target of about 40% gross margin. You will therefore see the gross margin oscillate between 38ish and 40% depending on mix and volume. But it is clear that if we do have cost savings, we plan to feed that back to customers for growth.
謝謝你的祝賀,尼可拉斯。不是,也是。不,我們還沒有到達成本改善曲線的盡頭。事實上,我們有大量關於新框架的項目。新的框架意味著框架的新定義,這將產生更高的成本和價值。我們也致力於縮短週期時間,正如您聽過兩三次的那樣,我們計劃將週期時間節省 30%。這肯定會對成本產生影響。我們也正在進行一些更積極的採購項目,利用全球採購來採購一定數量的零件。所以,不,我們已經深入這個項目,但我們還沒有看到它的結束。 我正在回顧未來三年內我們將實現顯著的曲線節省。是的,我們會用部分省下來的錢來回饋我們的客戶。 因此,部分節省將體現在更積極的價格方面。我想說的是,透過定價來提供批量機會。我再說一遍,我們管理公司的目標是毛利率達到 40% 左右。因此,您會看到毛利率根據產品組合和產量在 38% 到 40% 之間波動。但很明顯,如果我們確實節省了成本,我們計劃將其回饋給客戶以實現成長。
- Analyst
- Analyst
So for the time being, you targeting assuming 40% gross margin, 20% plus operating margin into the next couple of years, you will target you have essentially. Is that correct?
因此,就目前而言,你的目標是假設毛利率為 40%,未來幾年的營業利益率為 20%,基本上你已經實現了目標。 對嗎?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That is correct.
沒錯。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And as a follow up, just in terms of the reduction of the new noncritical (inaudible) tools, is there any way you could help us understand how many of these tools you achieved in Q4 and what is your initial view of acceptance of these tools in '06 as well.
好的。作為後續問題,僅就減少新的非關鍵(聽不清楚)工具而言,您能否幫助我們了解您在第四季度實現了多少此類工具,以及您對 2006 年這些工具的接受度的初步看法是什麼。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We have, in fact, I will answer a question you haven't asked. It is clear in Q4 that we shipped more KRF than we even planned. KRF is a measure of the upswing. These are capacity basic machines and we shipped much more of that than we expected. That means customers are back in (inaudible) capacity. Within this KRF environment, yes we have introduced a one sector for (inaudible) new machines to address the noncritical layers and I guess we shipped to six of them in the last quarter, is that correct? That's correct.
我們有,事實上,我會回答一個你還沒問過的問題。很明顯,在第四季度,我們運送的 KRF 數量甚至超出了我們的計劃。 KRF 是上升趨勢的衡量標準。這些是容量基本型機器,我們發貨的數量遠遠超出了我們的預期。這意味著客戶已恢復(聽不清楚)能力。在這個 KRF 環境中,是的,我們引入了一個用於(聽不清楚)新機器的部門來解決非關鍵層,我想我們在上個季度向其中六個機器發貨,對嗎?沒錯。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So, it is a very good first quarter of life. If you see, our product was introduced in Q3, in time to take the orders and deliver six in the first quarter is a good number.
所以,這是人生中非常好的第一季。 如果你看到,我們的產品是在第三季推出的,及時接受訂單並在第一季交付六個是一個不錯的數字。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Would they tend to impact ASP's on the lower side or not , if you look purely at the TWINSCAN portion of KRF?
如果您只看 KRF 的 TWINSCAN 部分,它們是否會對較低的 ASP 產生影響?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Absolutely correct. The whole KRF which I would call again the capacity business is at the lower level of ASP than the ARF. If you are in are cycle down where we ship more technology tools than capacity tools, you will have extremely high ASB biased by the ARF family. And when you get back into an upswing cycle, the KRF start taking a very larger share, even if you continue selling ARF, and that reduces your ASP. This is what we saw in fact in Q4 in our billings and our bookings. The good news, however, for what we are concerned is two things. One is KRF OER have a very high price. We're not talking about 1 or 2 million euro machine. You're talking near $10 million for KRF and around 20 for ARF. These are still big numbers. Both of them are above the same time margin. So ASP reduction due to mix is not economically a problem.
絕對正確。我將整個 KRF(我再次稱之為容量業務)的 ASP 水平低於 ARF。如果您處於週期下降階段,我們運送的技術工具多於容量工具,那麼您將獲得受 ARF 系列影響的極高的 ASB。當你回到上升週期時,即使你繼續銷售 ARF,KRF 也會開始佔據更大的份額,這會降低你的 ASP。事實上,這就是我們在第四季度的帳單和預訂中看到的情況。然而,就我們關心的而言,好消息有兩件事。一是KRF OER價格非常高。我們談論的不是價值 100 萬或 200 萬歐元的機器。你說的 KRF 估值接近 1,000 萬美元,ARF 估值約 2,000 萬美元。 這些仍然是很大的數字。兩者均高於相同的時間裕度。因此,由於混合而導致的 ASP 降低在經濟上並不是問題。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
And perhaps to illustrate further on Eric's point, if you look at the average enterprise in the backlog at the end of the year, it has reached 15.1 million euros, which is the highest we've ever seen. That is clearly a reflection of the quality and as a mix really of also KRF demand, which includes the noncritical, but also the impact of the leading edge tools.
也許為了進一步說明 Eric 的觀點,如果你看看年底積壓的平均企業數量,它已經達到了 1510 萬歐元,這是我們見過的最高值。這顯然反映了質量,也反映了 KRF 需求的混合,其中包括非關鍵性因素,以及前沿工具的影響。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Jonathan Dutton, UBS
下一個問題來自瑞銀的喬納森·達頓
- Analyst
- Analyst
I just wondered if I could start off with a broad based one, based on the improved momentum you seem to be seeing for Immersion, I just wondered if there's any updates on the type of revenue growth that you're looking for in 2006?
我只是想知道我是否可以從廣泛的角度開始,基於您所看到的 Immersion 的成長勢頭,您是否有任何關於您所期待的 2006 年收入成長類型的最新消息?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
I would answer in two segments. One is yes. You have seen in our press release that we're still planning the shipment of 20 to 25 immergent tools, basically 1700. But we are planning for more. It's another way to say that we feel that there is enough buoyant demand and that we feel comfortable with our technology to start preparing the possibility of an up side above 25. But , it would be a bit earlier to commit these four a lot of reasons, in particular, the customer recipe, which have to be compatible and follow (inaudible). But, yes, there is an up side opportunity here above 25 and I remind everybody that these machines cost around $25 million each. The other aspect, however, of growth, is the buoyancy of the market itself. Which has nothing to do with Immersion. Immersion being the R&D of technology side, but we expect to growth from 2005. I would say basically based on the current reading of the markets, the overall market expectation.
我會分兩部分來回答。一個是肯定的。您在我們的新聞稿中看到,我們仍計劃運送 20 至 25 個緊急工具,基本上是 1700 個。但我們計劃運送更多。換句話說,我們認為有足夠強勁的需求,並且我們對我們的技術感到滿意,可以開始為上漲超過 25 的可能性做準備。但是,由於很多原因,承諾這四個還為時過早,特別是客戶配方必須相容並遵循(聽不清楚)。但是,是的,25 以上確實有上漲機會,我提醒大家,每台這些機器的成本約為 2,500 萬美元。然而,成長的另一個面向是市場本身的活躍度。這與沉浸感無關。沉浸式技術屬於技術研發方面,但我們預計從 2005 年開始就會成長。我想說,這基本上是基於對當前市場的解讀,也就是整體市場的預期。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks. I wondered if I could just have a quick follow up. You've highlighted you increasing your R&D, including spending on EUV. I just wondered what level of EUV spending you're planning. And when that's slated to start a ramp. And also what sort of share buyback level you might be targeting in 2006.
謝謝。我想知道我是否可以快速跟進。您強調了加大研發投入,包括在 EUV 方面的支出。我只是想知道您計劃在 EUV 方面花費多少。 當預定的時間開始上升。以及您在 2006 年可能計劃實現的股票回購水準。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Are these related questions? On the first question, I will not segment our R&D budget per product. I will answer differently. I will say we are now getting very significant confidence level as to our road map, which covers up to 2011, 2012. We have now a need for R&D money to cover these different machines. That includes Immersion and negative narration Immersions. That includes UV. That includes new architectures. And all this is packed into our significant R&D investment, which we feel , expect we will be able to afford to grow, to accelerate, in fact, the introduction in the market of those different new architectures. Regarding your share buyback plan, we are a company that say what we do and do what we say. We said when we reach a billion euro of net cash, which is basically cash minus our convertible at this moment, we will start implementing a share buyback plan. With the exception that if within the period of the (inaudible) buyback plan, a potential investment materialized, which make sense for our portfolio and these are investments which strengthen our position in lithography or which we can leverage our lithography capabilities in, in that case, of course, we will publish the fact that we would want to use the cash differently than the share buyback. But at this moment, we've reached our target cash. We think we are going to continue generating cash, so it is due time to organize a share buyback, but again, as you know, you will not know exactly when and how etcetera, all these depend on different numbers of conditions.
這些是相關問題嗎?關於第一個問題,我不會以產品劃分我們的研發預算。我會以不同的方式回答。我想說的是,我們現在對我們的路線圖非常有信心,該路線圖涵蓋到 2011 年、2012 年。我們現在需要研發資金來覆蓋這些不同的機器。其中包括沉浸式體驗和負面敘事沉浸式體驗。其中包括紫外線。其中包括新的架構。所有這些都包含在我們大量的研發投資中,我們認為,預計我們將能夠承受成長,實際上能夠加速這些不同的新架構在市場上的推出。關於你們的股票回購計劃,我們是一家言出必行、說到做到的公司。我們說過,當我們的淨現金達到 10 億歐元時(基本上是現金減去目前的可轉換債券),我們將開始實施股票回購計畫。 除非在(聽不清楚)回購計劃期間,一項潛在投資實現了,這對我們的投資組合來說是有意義的,而且這些投資可以加強我們在光刻領域的地位,或者我們可以利用我們的光刻能力,在這種情況下,當然,我們會公佈我們希望以不同於股票回購的方式使用現金的事實。但目前,我們已經達到目標現金了。我們認為我們將繼續產生現金,因此現在是時候組織股票回購了,但是,正如你所知,你不會確切知道何時以及如何等等,所有這些都取決於不同的條件。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. Thanks very much.
偉大的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Mehdi Hosseini, FDR. Go ahead, please sir.
下一個問題來自羅斯福總統的邁赫迪·胡賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。請繼續,先生。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes. I have a couple of questions. When you talk about your attraction with flash market, especially, 45 nanometer. Could you please help us understand whether the opportunity in the larger as the larger migrates to 45 nanometer and than you talked about kind of capacity buys for Immersion happening 2007 and assuming six to seven month lead time. Would that imply that we should see the capacity booking for Immersion happening in the second half of 2006?
是的。我有幾個問題。當您談到快閃記憶體市場的吸引力時,尤其是 45 奈米。您能否幫助我們了解,隨著更大尺寸的製程遷移到 45 奈米,是否存在更大尺寸的製程機會,然後您談到了 2007 年發生的 Immersion 產能購買,假設交貨時間為六到七個月。這是否意味著我們應該在 2006 年下半年看到 Immersion 的容量預訂?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes. On the logic question, yes I hinted to you that our older book basically for 1700 is not only including the flash people. Clearly, (inaudible) are in there, but also multiple idea. The lead product at this moment seems to be mobile phone environment, but again, it's an anecdote, I think because other products are following. I would not be quoted to saying this is a 45 nanonode in logic. I use a 45 nanonode -- it is a flash node and a measure of the technology, but in logic, but we don't want to get in to technicality either, but in logic I don't think we will it call it a 45 nano at half pitch. It would be much to aggressive. But same technology -- same type of 1700 needed for the next integration of those. And again, I would not want to be specific because these are customer secretive products, but it is good to hear or to feel pressure on both sides of the spectrum, flash on one hand and logic on the other for this type of machine. And when I say pressure, I mean real pressure. On the second question, is yes certainly. We expect at the start of bookings for production of 1700 to happen early in Q3 of '06.
是的。關於邏輯問題,是的,我向你暗示過,我們 1700 年的舊書基本上不僅僅包括閃光人物。顯然,(聽不清楚)在那裡,但也有多種想法。此刻的主導產品似乎是手機環境,但同樣,這只是一個軼事,我認為這是因為其他產品正在跟進。我不會說這是邏輯上的 45 奈米節點。我使用 45 奈米節點 - 它是一個閃存節點和技術的衡量標準,但在邏輯上,但我們也不想涉及技術細節,但在邏輯上,我認為我們不會將其稱為半間距的 45 奈米。這未免太過激進了。但下一次整合需要同樣的技術——同樣類型的 1700。再次強調,我不想說得那麼具體,因為這些都是客戶保密的產品,但聽到或感受到來自兩方面的壓力是件好事,對於這種類型的機器,一方面是閃光燈,另一方面是邏輯。當我說壓力時,我指的是真正的壓力。關於第二個問題,答案當然是肯定的。我們預計 2006 年第三季初將開始接受 1700 輛的訂單。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Just, if I may, just a follow up question. To follow up, first in terms of logic, we heard last night the largest logic company accelerating the move to 45 nanometer. If I understand correctly, they're using a different technology. So I want to get your opinion on using overetching to migrate to 45 nanometer. And in terms of Immersion capacity bookings for Immersion happening the second half, going back to analyst day November of 2005, there was a comment regarding overall bookings peaking in Q2 of this year, so would the capacity booking taken place in the second half of this year, would that imply we should see continued improvement in booking in the second half? Thank you.
如果可以的話,我只想問一個後續問題。接下來,首先在邏輯方面,我們昨晚聽說最大的邏輯公司正在加速向 45 奈米邁進。如果我理解正確的話,他們使用的是不同的技術。所以我想聽聽您對使用過度蝕刻遷移到 45 奈米的看法。關於下半年 Immersion 容量預訂情況,回顧 2005 年 11 月的分析師日,當時有評論稱今年第二季度整體預訂量將達到峰值,那麼容量預訂是否會在今年下半年發生,這是否意味著我們應該看到下半年預訂量繼續改善?謝謝。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Regarding a large customer in the U.S. who may have given some hints about their technology, I, of course, cannot comment. This is customer specifics. There are different ways of doing 45's, nanometers. You can do it by double patterning type things, using less critical machines. You can use the (inaudible) critical machine, you can do both. I am happy to confirm to everybody that we are participating to any of the options. And in fact, we are very comfortable that our R&D size allows us to participate in all those options always a very strong product. Regarding your question, I think, if I remember in the Analyst Today , I say that Q2 '06 would be a good billings quarter. I don't think I was talking too much about bookings. And I confirm at least, that we expect Q1 to be a good growth for the press release and we expect this to continue in Q2 again and I can confirm the old news that Q2 '06 is viewed by us a fairly significant gross quarter. In bookings levels and guidance it is fairly complex and difficult at this moment to guide. It is true that Immersion would start then, but if you remember, I told you at what levels depend on the recipes on the maturation of this thing, and then of course, the rest of the bookings depend on the cyclic cycle and it is a bit too early to guide on this.
至於美國的大客戶可能透露了一些有關其技術的暗示,我當然無法評論。這是客戶的具體要求。有不同的方法可以實現 45 度奈米。您可以使用不太重要的機器,透過雙重圖案類型的東西來完成它。您可以使用(聽不清楚)關鍵機器,您可以同時使用這兩個功能。我很高興向大家確認我們正在參與其中的任何選擇。事實上,我們非常放心,我們的研發規模使我們能夠參與所有這些選擇,並始終推出非常強大的產品。關於您的問題,我想,如果我沒記錯的話,在《今日分析師》中,我說過 2006 年第二季將是一個良好的營業額季度。我認為我沒有談論太多有關預訂的事情。我至少可以確認,我們預計第一季將實現良好的成長,正如新聞稿所述,我們預計第二季將繼續保持這種成長勢頭,而且我可以確認先前的新聞,即我們認為 2006 年第二季是一個相當重要的總季度。目前,預訂水平和指導相當複雜且難以指導。確實,沉浸式體驗將在那時開始,但如果您還記得的話,我告訴過您,在什麼水平上取決於該事物的成熟度配方,然後當然,其餘的預訂取決於循環週期,現在指導這一點還為時過早。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Understood, thank you very much.
明白了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Mark Fitzgerald, Banc of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬克·菲茨傑拉德。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you. I was curious your comments in terms of what's driving business, flash, mobile, consumer, and these being heavy seasonal marketplaces, a big demand in the second half. And then looking at how strong your turns business is in the fourth and first quarter if this in fact, might just be a seasonal surge in demand for cap equipment. To meet the second half, and that there could be a falloff in the second half of the year, particularly on the turn's side of the business.
謝謝。我很好奇您對推動業務、快閃記憶體、行動、消費者以及這些季節性市場、下半年需求巨大的因素的評論。然後看看第四季度和第一季的營業額有多強勁,這實際上可能只是瓶蓋設備需求的季節性激增。為了迎接下半年,下半年可能會下滑,特別是在業務的轉捩點。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
The key data that allows us to judge your question would be on utilization. Utilizations at this moment is very high on most of our customers. So we expect that the additional capacity that is being booked on turns as well as on normal orders for the first half is not going to create a utilization problem. And therefore, this industry has become very much mature in management utilization. Therefore, it will be one to one equivalent to the real needs for semiconductor and I will not want to guide on this. You've seen hundreds of different -- no, you've seen two hundreds of different analysis about whether it could be a growth of 22% highest to 3% semiconductor growth in '06, depending on who you talk. And again, we don't want to have opinions, we want to have facts. The facts are telling us that the first half is excellent. And that our Immersion dealership allows us to believe that we will have an extremely high market share in the non-volume related part of the business, which is the technology share. So, we feel comfortable about the volume business in (hedge one), we feel comfortable about the technology business in hedge two.
讓我們判斷您的問題的關鍵數據是利用率。目前我們大多數客戶的使用率都很高。因此,我們預計上半年按輪調和正常訂單預訂的額外產能不會造成利用率問題。因此,這個產業在管理運用上已經非常成熟。因此,它將與半導體的實際需求一一對應,我不想對此進行指導。你已經看到了數百種不同的——不,你已經看到了兩百種不同的分析,關於2006年半導體行業是否能實現最高22%到3%的增長,這取決於你與誰交談。再說一次,我們不想有意見,我們想要事實。事實告訴我們,上半年表現非常出色。我們的 Immersion 經銷權讓我們相信,我們將在與銷售無關的業務部分,也就是技術份額,擁有極高的市場份額。因此,我們對(對沖一)中的數量業務感到放心,我們對對沖二中的技術業務感到放心。
- Analyst
- Analyst
May I ask a quick following question? In terms of R&D expensing Did I hear in terms of that you will step it up and therefore could expect on an actual dollar base or euro basis '06 would be up from '05?
我可以問一個快速的後續問題嗎?在研發費用方面,我是否聽說你們將增加研發費用,因此可以預期以實際美元或歐元計算,2006 年的研發費用將高於 2005 年?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Absolutely. The commitment that we have to the market and to you is to grow R&D as fast as we can do which makes it, I would say still within our financial targets. So, we expect to grow, we expect to continue our execution and profitability. We expect to have more money able to be fed into R&D.
絕對地。我們對市場和您的承諾是盡快發展研發,我認為這仍然符合我們的財務目標。因此,我們期望成長,我們期望繼續我們的執行力和獲利能力。我們希望有更多的資金能夠投入研發。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Dollar value, you associated with that? That you can talk about?
美元價值,你與此相關嗎? 你能談談嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We try to avoid guiding too far away because a lot of parameters may happen. So we've guided on Q1 at 85 and I think we did Q2 (inaudible) 82. So three more million coming in Q1.
我們盡量避免引導太遠,因為可能會發生很多參數。因此,我們預計第一季的銷量為 8,500 萬,而我認為第二季的銷售量(聽不清楚)為 8,200 萬。因此,第一季將新增 300 萬銷售量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question if from Ben Pang, Prudential Go ahead, please, sir.
下一個問題來自 Prudential 的 Ben Pang,請繼續,先生。
- Analyst
- Analyst
One question. On the turns business, the six pools that you mentioned. Is that, usually you would expect how many, one or zero?
一個問題。關於轉彎業務,您提到的六個池。通常您會期望多少個,一個還是零個?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
This is an average good on an upswing.
這是處於上升趨勢的平均值。
- Analyst
- Analyst
So average, good, and why doesn't that impact your gross margin more favorably? That's a pretty significant number versus the number of total tools you're selling.
那麼平均而言,很好,但為什麼這對您的毛利率沒有更有利的影響?與您銷售的工具總數相比,這是一個相當可觀的數字。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes. Before I answer that question, the fact that this average good is also for us considered fairly good news. That means the bookings increase that we have had in Q4 looks sustained. It doesn't look like a flaming white pan, so it's a solid customer utilization rate, neat machine, not too much, not exciting, the right thing. The right move for a continuous growth at this six months. That's good news. Regarding the margin, Peter.
是的。在我回答這個問題之前,我認為這個平均價格對我們來說也是一個相當好的消息。這意味著我們第四季的預訂量成長看起來持續了下去。它看起來不像一個燃燒的白色平底鍋,因此它的客戶利用率很高,機器整潔,不會太多,也不會令人興奮,是正確的東西。這是實現這六個月持續成長的正確舉措。這是個好消息。關於利潤,彼得。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Like Eric said earlier, we had about four new systems and two use. And especially the use systems can have a significant effect on the average gross margin on those incremental systems, which was the case in the fourth quarter. We were able to ship a few use systems which had very varying, (inaudible) those gross margins can vary from single digit to very high double digits. That is just a matter of that particular mix or that particular turns business in the fourth quarter. It's not indicative of any gross margin trend.
正如 Eric 之前所說,我們大約有四個新系統和兩個使用系統。尤其是使用系統會對這些增量系統的平均毛利率產生重大影響,第四季就是這種情況。我們能夠交付一些使用系統,這些系統具有很大的差異,(聽不清楚)這些毛利率可以從個位數到很高的兩位數不等。這只是第四季度特定組合或特定業務轉變的問題。它並不代表任何毛利率趨勢。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And on these turns business, what type of capacity are people, you know, using those tools for?
好的。在這些轉變的業務中,人們使用這些工具是為了什麼目的?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
200 millimeter.
200毫米。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes, 200 millimeter, KRF (inaudible).
是的,200 毫米,KRF(聽不清楚)。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And the final question. On your R&D increase, is that all for semiconductor or are you still active in the flat panel market for development?
好的。最後一個問題。關於你們增加研發投入,是全部用於半導體還是仍積極在平板市場進行開發?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We are continuing the evolution of our technology for the flatpanel at the same level as we had in the past. Remind everybody that we have a dormant project in some ways, we continue by waiting and improving and looking the technology for this potential market, waiting for potential interests by customers. And that is we are staying at the same level. No, the increased is to accelerate all the great ideas we have in lithography, which as I mentioned at beginning of the call is getting more frozen and was a significant set of options in terms of different architectures, which we feel that we need to invest to continue increasing our leadership GAAP. It is true, also, as I mentioned in the share buyback question, that some money has been and is always invested by waiting technologies around lithography. And again, this is increasing a bit.
我們將繼續以與過去相同的水平對平板技術進行改進。 提醒大家,從某種程度上來說,我們有一個休眠項目,我們將繼續等待、改進和尋找這個潛在市場的技術,等待客戶的潛在興趣。那就是我們保持在同一水平。不,增加是為了加速我們在光刻技術方面的所有偉大想法,正如我在電話會議開始時提到的那樣,光刻技術正變得越來越凍結,並且在不同的架構方面有一套重要的選擇,我們認為我們需要投資以繼續提高我們的領導地位 GAAP。確實,正如我在股票回購問題中提到的那樣,一些資金已經並且一直在投資等待光刻技術。而且,這數字還在略有增加。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Jay Deahna, JP Morgan. Go ahead, please, sir.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑伊·迪阿納 (Jay Deahna)。請繼續,先生。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon, a couple of questions. The first one is, on your guidance that borders on Q will be equal to or better than 4Q. Is that in units or in euros and I have a couple of follow ups.
謝謝。下午好,有幾個問題。第一個是,根據您的指導,Q 的邊界將等於或優於 4Q。這是以單位還是歐元來計算?我還有一些後續問題。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Both.
兩個都。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. The next question is, in terms of your shipment profile of your '06. If you're orders are up in 1Q modestly or whatever verses 4Q, then potentially up again in Q2 that would suggest that your shipments of new systems should trend higher through 3Q and possibly in to the early part of 4Q, I think. Does that make sense?
好的。下一個問題是關於您 06 年的裝運。 如果您的訂單在第一季或與第四季度相比略有增加,那麼在第二季度可能會再次增加,我認為這表明您的新系統出貨量在第三季度應該會呈上升趨勢,並可能持續到第四季度初。 這樣有道理嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
This is not illogical. It is clear that our body language at this moment is positive.
這並不不合邏輯。顯然,我們此刻的肢體語言是積極的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
So you don't see an overly front half loaded shipping situation like last year?
所以您沒有看到像去年那樣的過度前期半載運輸情況嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
(The portfolio) of lead at this moment is more diverse than last year. Last year, we really had a major affront loading by memory, Flash in-particular. This year, you see a serious rebuilding or building of capacity and technology in all the three sectors, or the four if you will. Flash, Memory, IDM, and Foundry. Now, does that say that it is not going to be a catastrophe in the second half, we don't know. And with that we will continue. But the quality of the growth is more measured at the memory level and higher at the others. And therefore, yes, I have said, it's not illogical.
目前鉛的投資組合比去年更加多元。去年,我們確實在記憶體載入方面遭受了重大的冒犯,尤其是 Flash。今年,你會看到這三個領域,或者說四個領域,都在大力重建或建立產能和技術。快閃記憶體、記憶體、IDM 和代工廠。那麼,這是否意味著下半年不會發生災難呢,我們不知道。 我們將繼續這樣做。但成長的品質更多是在記憶層面進行衡量,而在其他層面則更高。因此,是的,我說過,這並非不合邏輯。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I meant to say that the data is making your assumptions possible. And on slide 15 of the presentation on the Web site, we give a further breakdown of the backlog where which you can read. Basically all quarters in 2005, 80% of the unit backlog carries shipment dates that are within six months. So if we'd guide on the order trends, which we did, and if those would materialize in Q1, I don't have any reason to believe that 80% mark would change. That it would automatically have an affect like you logically deducted for Q3.
我的意思是說數據使你的假設成為可能。在網站簡報的第 15 張投影片中,我們對積壓工作進行了進一步的細分,您可以閱讀。基本上,2005 年所有季度,80% 的單位積壓訂單的出貨日期都在六個月內。因此,如果我們能夠指導訂單趨勢(我們確實這樣做了),並且如果這些趨勢能夠在第一季實現,那麼我沒有理由相信 80% 的標記會發生變化。它會自動產生像您在 Q3 中邏輯推斷的那樣的影響。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, and then two other quick ones. First of all, can you give us a quick update on Japan and have you received orders from the large Flash supplier in Japan, just kind of a general update on Japan, and that one in-particular. And then finally, have you considered a 10B51 type of stock buyback where it's automatic, or are you thinking discretionary for the time being?
好的,然後還有另外兩個簡短的問題。首先,您能否向我們簡單介紹一下日本的情況?您是否已經收到了日本大型 Flash 供應商的訂單?能否請您大致介紹一下日本的情況,以及具體情況?最後,您是否考慮過 10B51 類型的股票回購(自動回購)或暫時考慮自由裁量?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Okay, Peter, do you want Japan and do the buyback?
好的,彼得,你想要日本並進行回購嗎?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I can be quick about the buyback. At this moment in time, we are not going to give details about the structure or what we want to do size and etcetera. That will be done in due course. That's a short answer. I kind of got the long answer to you Eric.
我可以快速回購。目前,我們不會透露有關結構或我們想要做什麼、規模等等的細節。 我們將在適當的時候完成這項工作。這是一個簡短的回答。我得到了一個很長的答案給你,艾瑞克。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Regarding Japan, so as you've seen in our press release we have announced that we (fixed) the customer in Japan. As you know it's difficult for us to publish these names as not all of them want to be public. It is possible that this does not yet include a large Flash manufacturer in Japan and that may happen very soon. In other terms, additional leadership in Immersion makes it clear that people who are serious to grow in 45 nano type technology have to put an order on a machine. You clearly have an acceleration of our penetration in Japan and we officially have six and we expect a possibility to announce more soon.
關於日本,正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的,我們已經宣布我們(修復)了日本的客戶。 如你所知,我們很難公佈這些名字,因為並不是所有人都願意公開。這可能還不包括日本的大型 Flash 製造商,但這可能很快就會發生。換句話說,Immersion 的額外領導明確表示,那些認真對待 45 奈米技術發展的人必須訂購一台機器。我們在日本的滲透率明顯加快,目前我們在日本的官方數字是六家,我們預計很快就會宣布更多。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great. Thank you very much.
偉大的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from (Joe Sacama, Lindberg) Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自(喬·薩卡瑪、林德伯格),請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you. Hi, there. A couple small questions. First of all, as far as on the Company's latest sales outlook for this year is still flat unless A, B, C, and D would happen. Would your current be more optimistic, positive on the Immersion. Would you say that it is fair to say what analysts are already saying, that sales will indeed grow, more than 10%. That's the first one. The second one is on shippings, also linked to Immersion. How much litho tools do you expect will be sold globally to share and will (Asnau) have 50% again or less or more?
謝謝。你好呀。幾個小問題。首先,就公司最新的銷售前景而言,除非 A、B、C 和 D 發生,否則今年的銷售前景仍然持平。現在您對沉浸式體驗會更加樂觀、積極嗎? 您是否認為分析師的預測是合理的,即銷售額確實會成長 10% 以上?這是第一個。第二個是關於運輸的,也與 Immersion 相關。您預計全球將銷售多少光刻工具,Asnau 的市佔率將再次達到 50% 還是更少或更多?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks.
謝謝。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Okay, thank you Joe. Good question. I think we were strong last call because of the confusion of the of the wording that they may have used before. We said growth. And I think the question was asked three times, so I think I said three time gross. I'm going the to add one more time, gross in 2006. Maybe gross this time is written with bigger letter. So yes, Immersion is materializing. The orders, as you can see, show significant certain units, and we are negotiating, what, the finishing with another eight. We are above 20 already in bookings. This is significant. So Immersion happens. Second point is obviously the bookings is now confirming the basic capacity business. Foundry was good in Q4, showing good possibilities in the first half. So clearly, we are also saying yes to the overall market buoyancy. The other aspect was market share. And obviously our customer in Japan plus a potential X in Japan and our performance in new customers in Taiwan plus performance in other larger accounts in the U.S. And obviously our fix customer in Japan plus a potential X in Japan and our performance in new customers in Taiwan plus performance in other larger accounts in the U.S. Allows us to believe that the market share again will increase significantly. So we know the terms, we expect gross, and that is no issue. And we expect significant gross. But again, at this moment, we want to stay guiding along the first quarter because we all know that in this industry, cycles can change.
好的,謝謝你喬。 好問題。我認為我們最後的決定是強而有力的,因為他們之前可能使用過的措辭令人困惑。我們說的是成長。我認為這個問題被問了三次,所以我認為我說的是三次嚴重。我打算再加一次,2006 年的 gross。也許這次的 gross 寫的字體更大了。是的,沉浸感正在實現。如您所見,訂單顯示了某些重要單位,我們正在協商最後訂購另外八個。我們的預訂量已超過 20 份。這意義重大。因此沉浸感就產生了。第二點顯然是預訂現在正在確認基本容量業務。 Foundry在第四季表現良好,展現出上半年良好的可能性。因此,顯然,我們也對整體市場活躍度表示肯定。另一方面是市場佔有率。顯然,我們在日本的固定客戶加上日本的潛在 X,以及我們在台灣的新客戶業績加上在美國其他較大客戶的表現。顯然,我們在日本的固定客戶加上日本的潛在 X,以及我們在台灣的新客戶業績加上在美國其他較大客戶的業績,讓我們相信市場份額將再次大幅增加。所以我們知道這些條款,我們預計總額,這不是問題。我們預計總收入將非常可觀。但目前,我們希望繼續引導第一季的發展,因為我們都知道,在這個產業,週期是會改變的。
To your questions about the overall size of the market, here I want to make a safe harbor comment, please. We will -- I will give you some numbers based on a simulated tool. This is not a forecast. I cannot and will not want to be blamed for guiding things based on data that do not exist. But the simulation is the following. If you take an -- sorry, if you take a 10% unit semi conductor unit growth, 2006 versus 2005, which corresponds to with our own simulation tools about 8% value gross of semiconductors tools, end product semiconductor. So if you put this into our magnificent little simulation tool, which has a whole set of assumptions about technologies and (through goods) and 300 millimeter and 200 millimeters and etcetera, you'll get all sets of assumptions. We come up with a total market of about 500 little tools in this projected mix. Okay. On the 500 machines, we do expect our market share to be obviously above what it is today. Today, we are going to -- we're waiting of course for the statistics to be official. We expect to be above 67, 68% at this very moment in value, and not in unit. And we expect to be above that in 2006.
對於您關於市場整體規模的問題,我想在這裡發表一個安全的評論。我們將——我將根據類比工具給你一些數字。這不是預測。我不能也不想因為根據不存在的數據來指導事情而受到指責。但模擬如下。如果您採取 - 抱歉,如果您採取 2006 年與 2005 年相比 10% 的半導體單位增長率,這對應於我們自己的模擬工具的半導體工具、最終產品半導體的總價值的 8% 左右。因此,如果您將其放入我們出色的小型模擬工具中,該工具有一整套關於技術和(透過商品)以及 300 毫米和 200 毫米等的假設,您將獲得所有假設。我們預計這個組合中的小工具市場總共有大約 500 種。好的。對於這 500 台機器,我們確實預期我們的市佔率將明顯高於現在的水平。今天,我們將——當然是在等待官方統計數據。我們預計此時的價值將超過 67%、68%,而非單位。我們預計 2006 年這一數字將更高。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks. One quick follow up on Immersion. How many Immersion tools would you be able to make? Like with current production capacity? You're saying you're reckoning with more than 25, but what will be the max?
謝謝。對 Immersion 進行快速跟進。您能夠製作多少個浸入式工具?與目前的生產能力一樣嗎?你說你考慮的數字超過 25,但最大值是多少?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
I would -- I'm tempted to answer the sky is the limit, yes, but I don't think you'd want to write this in an article. Would you? I'd prefer not to guide on this. I think at the moment, we probably have enough capacity for the needs.
我會——我很想回答天空是極限,是的,但我不認為你會想在文章中寫這篇。 你會嗎?我不想對此進行指導。我認為目前我們可能有足夠的能力來滿足需求。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Antoine Badel, company Suisse Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自瑞士公司的 Antoine Badel,請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes. Hi, what do you think is the size of the Immersion market this year?
是的。您好,您認為今年沈浸式市場規模有多大?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
This is another way of asking the question. Now that I say - we can make the whole market. Can I pass on that question?
這是提出問題的另一種方式。現在我說——我們可以打造整個市場。我可以轉達這個問題嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Sure. Let me ask a couple follow up on Immersion. You said you think there's a chance you might be --
當然。讓我問幾個關於 Immersion 的後續問題。你說你認為你有可能—
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Could you say please say your name and organization.
請說出您的姓名和組織。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Antoine Badel from Credit Suisse. You said you might beat the 25 unit shipment for Immersion tools this year. There's a chance, what leads you to that? Is it incremental customers or is it more confidence that customers can transition the 45 nanometer tool into production fast enough. And following that, are you seeing any sort of price pressure in Immersion tools following the launch of the competitive tool?
瑞士信貸銀行的安托萬·巴德爾。 您說過今年浸入式工具的出貨量可能會超過 25 台。 有可能,是什麼促使你這麼做的?是客戶數量增加,還是更有信心客戶能夠足夠快地將 45 奈米工具投入生產。那麼,在競爭工具推出後,您是否看到 Immersion 工具出現任何價格壓力?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
I will answer the first two questions, I didn't hear the third one. The first two, yes, the first is a confidence level in our technology. And which has led to an adoption by new customers. So, clearly, no one in this industry, you boast your technical capability, you think you're better than the competition etcetera, and you hope. It seems now that we have enough factual piece of data that we better be ready to ship those machines to more customers than originally thought. So clearly, our technology is adopted. That's the first comment. The second comment which is another way of saying, do we believe that all these customers will be able to ramp Immersion. I would prefer to answer the opposite, and that is they need to. In fact, we are getting excited. The reason for the need of this new technology, 45. Sometimes you shrink the cost, here you shrink for future. In other terms, you do not get into Dr. Wang's dream of flash taking some (inaudible) business without really integrating. You do not get into (inaudible) view of life about what you should have by phones in terms of storage without shrinking. You cannot have dreams if you don't shrink and this clearly put an accelerator to the whole thing. I made on purpose -- because it's my industry duty to say -- but I am not judging the speed at which every problems will be ironed out in production and Immersion. This is for me a question mark, for all our technologies, a question mark. You have to realize that these are extremely complex machines. You put water into this, you're trying to do 45 nano, you've never done it because of (inaudible) issues, because requalification it is a very, very, complex environment and you operate within the industry. This is an experience curve, management. You have so many defects, which, by the way, we are really happy in our progression on that. We are not yet to the defective role of production and then you're working on this until you get there. And often, they're not 100% sure about how long it takes to get there. So, yes, positive on us, technology wise, for our old and new customers. Positive on the needs, and mutual on the difficulty of executing the recipe of diversion with our customers. Your third question was?
我來回答前兩個問題,我沒有聽到第三個問題。前兩個,是的,第一個是對我們的技術的信心水平。並因此吸引了新客戶的採用。因此,顯然,在這個行業中,沒有人會誇耀自己的技術能力,認為自己比競爭對手更優秀等等,並且希望如此。現在看來,我們已經掌握了足夠的事實數據,我們最好準備好將這些機器運送給比原先想像的更多的客戶。所以很明顯,我們的技術被採用了。這是第一條評論。第二條評論是另一種說法,我們是否相信所有這些客戶都能夠提升沈浸感。我更願意回答相反的問題,那就是他們需要這麼做。事實上,我們越來越興奮了。需要這項新技術的原因,45.有時你會縮減成本,這裡你縮減未來。換句話說,如果你沒有真正整合起來,你就無法實現王博士的夢想,即快速搶佔一些(聽不清楚)業務。您不會對手機的儲存空間應該有多大(聽不清楚)有這樣的看法,也不會對手機的儲存空間縮小有這樣的看法。如果你不退縮,你就不可能擁有夢想,而這顯然為整件事注入了加速器。我故意這樣做——因為這是我的行業職責——但我不會判斷生產和沈浸式體驗中所有問題解決的速度。對我來說這是一個問號,對我們所有的技術來說,這是一個問號。你必須意識到這些都是極為複雜的機器。你把水放進去,你試圖做到 45 奈米,但由於(聽不清楚)問題,你從來沒有這樣做過,因為重新認證是一個非常非常複雜的環境,而你是在行業內運營的。這是一條經驗曲線,管理。你有這麼多的缺陷,順便說一句,我們對這方面的進展感到非常高興。我們還沒有達到生產的缺陷作用,然後你正在努力做到這一點。而且通常他們不能 100% 確定到達那裡需要多長時間。所以,是的,從技術角度來看,對於我們的新舊客戶來說,我們都是持正面態度的。對需求持正面態度,並就與客戶一起執行轉移方案的困難進行相互溝通。 你的第三個問題是?
- Analyst
- Analyst
It was about pricing for Immersion tools. What's the ASP for the latest orders and are there any signs that you might be under a little bit of price pressure because there is a competitor out in the market now.
這是關於 Immersion 工具的定價。最新訂單的平均售價是多少?是否有跡象表明您可能面臨一點價格壓力,因為現在市場上有競爭對手。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
No, this is a joke. Yes, we really respect our competitor and we, but these are very complex machines for our competitor (inaudible), it creates a value which should sustain the current ASP of about 25ish maybe. That target price is based on making it economically voluble for customers to use.
不,這是個玩笑。 是的,我們非常尊重我們的競爭對手,但對於我們的競爭對手來說,這些都是非常複雜的機器(聽不清楚),它創造的價值應該可以維持目前大約 25 左右的 ASP。 此目標價格是基於讓客戶使用起來具有經濟可行性的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
You are saying 25ish. Is that down slightly from -- because I thought previous ASP for Immersion was sort of 29, or am I mistaken.?
你說的是 25 左右。 這是否比之前略有下降——因為我認為 Immersion 之前的 ASP 大約是 29,還是我記錯了?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
You're talking about list. 29.5 is a list price. for a 1700. If you want one, we'll start discussing from 29.5. And for the American team, I mentioned this is Europe.
您正在談論清單。 29.5 是標價。 1700。如果你想要一個,我們將從 29.5 開始討論。對於美國隊,我提到這是歐洲。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Mr. (Punjae, Sosha De Janerio) Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自 Punjae, Sosha De Janerio 先生,請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. I'd like to have some indications from the big moves that we can see in Q4 in inventories, accounts receivables and current liabilities. I'd just like to understand what's behind these big moves, and where do you see inventories at the end of Q1. Given the guidelines that you gave for Q1 shipments and bookings.
是的,下午好。我想從第四季度庫存、應收帳款和流動負債的重大變動中得到一些跡象。我只是想了解這些大動作背後的原因,以及您認為第一季末的庫存情況如何。 鑑於您針對第一季度的發貨和預訂給出的指導方針。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
The cash conversion cycle is high on our agenda. Peter and I, so we're working in full detail whether the 19 drivers to get this to performing. Clearly, we are making compromises on the inventor in particular between reductions or improving our efficiency so (inaudible). Also, increasing the inventor rate in areas of leverage. You've got a certain number of areas of leverage. One of them is demonstration machines where you show customers the exact capability of this machine and you make a lot of demonstration, etcetera. The more you have those type of machines, the faster you go into a customer. So that's one usage, I would say of cash. You have, of course, the building up of our (inaudible) machines, which gets themselves into inventory of some point. So that grows obviously and naturally - the inventories. So you've got a certain number of point of actions which we've taken which stays. On one hand, we increase the efficiency of our cash cycle, but we take a part of it in investment. And we anyway try to yield cash generated every quarter. That's a gain and at this moment, we're fairly satisfied with the improvement of the internal numbers, which have a hard time to see. And of course, you can see the external numbers.
現金轉換週期是我們議程的重點。 彼得和我,我們正在詳細研究這 19 位車手是否能發揮最佳性能。顯然,我們在發明人方面做出了妥協,特別是在減少或提高效率之間(聽不清楚)。此外,也提高了槓桿領域的發明者比率。您擁有一定數量的槓桿領域。其中之一是演示機器,您可以向客戶展示機器的確切功能,並進行大量演示等等。您擁有的此類機器越多,您獲得客戶的速度就越快。所以我認為這是現金的一種用途。當然,我們已經建立了(聽不清楚)機器,這些機器在某種程度上進入了庫存。 因此庫存顯然自然而然地增長。因此,我們已經採取了一定數量的行動,而這些行動將會保留下來。一方面,我們提高現金循環的效率,但另一方面,我們又把一部分資金用於投資。無論如何,我們都盡力在每季產生現金。這是一個進步,目前,我們對內部數據的改善相當滿意,這在過去是很難看到的。 當然,您還可以看到外部數字。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
If you view on the previous explanation of the major changes, I think we were very successful in making sure that our customer stayed (inaudible) towards the end of year. We ended up with accounts receivable of about 300 million. Which is compared to the sales number of that month, is a pretty good achievement, yes, inventories were up quite significantly, but that is a reflection of our guidance on Q1. Clearly, but also, the fact we are building two (inaudible ) tools. When you add it up, the aggregate amount of that is close to 100 million euros. Which is in inventory, but does not reflect yet on the sales of the first quarter. And correspondingly, if you increase your work-in-process, you have your accounts payable, your suppliers who are waiting for their money to be paid. So that goes up also. So in the terms of networking capital, I think we had a positive outcome in Q4. Largely driven by the fact that we were driving our accounts receivable down. And net -- the increase of inventories less accounts payable was not that significant, not for the first quarter. That was your question, what do we expect. We expect the further acceleration of growth, so we need to put money to work because in the absence of prepayments for our customers we need to prefinance work in process and inventory and accounts receivable first before we get cash back. That will happen, we will see the EUV investment not doing indication Q1. So in Q1, you will clearly see the effects of some investments for growth.
如果您查看先前對重大變化的解釋,我認為我們非常成功地確保了我們的客戶在年底前保持(聽不清楚)。我們最終的應收帳款約為3億美元。與當月的銷售數字相比,這是一個相當不錯的成就,是的,庫存確實大幅增加,但這反映了我們對第一季的指導。顯然,但事實上我們正在建立兩個(聽不清楚)工具。加起來,總額接近1億歐元。 有庫存,但尚未反映在第一季的銷售中。相應地,如果你增加了在製品,你就會有應付帳款,你的供應商也在等待他們的錢被支付。所以這也上升了。因此,就網路資本而言,我認為我們在第四季度取得了積極的成果。這很大程度上是由於我們正在降低應收帳款。淨額-存貨減應付帳款的增幅並不大,第一季則不然。這就是你的問題,我們期待什麼。我們預計成長將進一步加速,因此我們需要將資金投入使用,因為在沒有為客戶預付款的情況下,我們需要先為在製品、庫存和應收帳款進行預融資,然後才能獲得現金回饋。這將會發生,我們將看到 EUV 投資在第一季沒有起到指示作用。因此在第一季度,你會清楚地看到一些投資對成長的影響。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. That's very good. Thank you. Just a very small follow up. Can you tell me how many Immersion units you expect to ship in Q1?
好的。那非常好。謝謝。只是一個非常小的後續行動。您能告訴我預計第一季出貨多少台 Immersion 設備嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Your --
你的 -
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
How many Immersion machines in Q1?
Q1 有幾台 Immersion 機器?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes.
是的。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
To ship?
要出貨嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes.
是的。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Remember the 1700, which is the big, was now everybody expects is going to ship early Q2. This is our production ramp as it has been in Q2. In Q1, do we have another I think it's ($1400.00) which is the full (mercenaries).
請記住,1700 是一款大型產品,現在每個人都預計它將於第二季初發貨。這是我們第二季的產量提升。在 Q1 中,我們是否有另一個,我認為是(1400.00 美元),這是完整的(僱傭兵)。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And then we were waiting to ship both the 1700's which would start, like Eric says, in Q1 and will ramp from that moment on.
然後,我們正在等待 1700 的發貨,正如 Eric 所說,它將在第一季開始,並從那一刻開始增加產量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Stewart Aidan, Morgan Stanley Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史都華艾丹,請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hi, there. I just wanted to go back to your simulation and just clarify, 500 tools in '06 you were talking about is new tools, that's correct, isn't it?
你好呀。我只是想回到您的模擬並澄清一下,您所說的 06 年的 500 個工具是新工具,這是正確的,不是嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
No, that is total. That is (inaudible) capacity you would need in the current mix of stuff.
不,完全如此。這就是(聽不清楚)在目前物質組合中所需要的容量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
So that's everything?
那麼就這些了嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Correct.
正確的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And do you -- so you said $0.57 value. Do you know what your unit share would be, roughly, in '05?
好的。那您說的是價值 0.57 美元。您知道 2005 年您的單位份額大概是多少嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
In the 40ish, but again, we have to wait the last two months. I think we have no data yet official. I would guess 37ish, 36ish to 40ish. You have to wait.
在 40 左右,但同樣,我們必須等待最後兩個月。我認為我們還沒有官方數據。我猜是 37 左右、36 左右到 40 左右。你必須等待。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's probably a bit higher than the 37%. Stewart's -- but.
可能比 37% 稍微高一點。 史都華的——但是。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We can't say.
我們不能說。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Somewhere in the 40s.
大約在 40 年代。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And similarly, as you said you expect market share to be higher in '06 on value, do you think that's going to be the case on the unit side as well?
好的。同樣,正如您所說,您預計 2006 年的市場份額會更高,您認為單位方面也會如此嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes, definitely.
是的,當然。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Let me ask one other question. Is there any implications of you cancelling your priority shares. I know you've got two forms of priority things. You've got your priority shares and I think your protective accumulative press shares as well. What does the impact of the priority shares being canceled have?
讓我再問一個問題。取消優先股有什麼影響嗎?我知道您有兩種優先事務。您已獲得優先股,而且我認為您還獲得了保護性累積新聞股。優先股取消有什麼影響?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
The priority shares give certain rights to the Management Board and the Supervisory Board Those will be canceled. The main (anti signal) for device is the (present) share foundation and that foundation is still intact and there are no plans to abolish that. It's only on the purity shares that gauge certain preference rights to certain decisions to be measured go to the Supervisory Board.
優先股賦予管理委員會和監事會某些權利,這些權利將被取消。該設備的主要(反訊號)是(當前)共享基礎,並且該基礎仍然完好無損,並且沒有廢除該基礎的計劃。只有以純度股份來衡量某些優先權,才能將某些決定交給監事會來衡量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And then just a final one. SG&A, up about 10% sequentially in your guidance for the first quarter. Just to see where that flatlines from that level for the rest of the year.
好的。接下來是最後一個。依照您對第一季的預測,銷售、一般及行政費用將較上季上漲約 10%。只是想看看今年剩餘時間內該水平與何處持平。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's a fair assumption.
這是一個合理的假設。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Dan Barkley, UBS. Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Dan Barkley。請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hi. Two clarifications. The first one going all the way back to the beginning about the press release, so just so we understand it, as far as the Company's interruption of the Netherlands's law, in order to stay on sides of that, you're going to be issuing press releases anytime before you make a statement that you think might be material on either a conference call, a Web cast or at an Investor Conference or meeting. Is that the correct interruption?
你好。兩點澄清。第一個問題回到新聞稿的開頭,所以我們理解,就公司違反荷蘭法律而言,為了堅持這一點,您將在電話會議、網路廣播或投資者會議或會議上發表您認為可能重要的聲明之前隨時發布新聞稿。這是正確的中斷嗎?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Hi, this is Tom McGuire again. Basically, what we're doing is what we said earlier and that is ASML will continue the openness and the transparency. And that means that our practices will conform with fair disclosure as prescribed by the SEC. What we have now in the Netherlands is a new regime which says that price sensitive information or material information, the only way to disclose that is by a press release. So, basically, what we're saying is, we, as a Company, are adapting to the new regime in the Netherlands. We're a globalling operating company. We participate in financial markets internationally and we will continue to conform with fair disclosure and whether it'sdefined in the U.S. or in the Netherlands. However, ASML encourages that different authorities align their rules for Fed disclosure of price sensitive information.
大家好,我是湯姆·麥奎爾。基本上,我們正在做的就是我們之前所說的,那就是 ASML 將繼續保持開放和透明。這意味著我們的做法將符合美國證券交易委員會規定的公平揭露。荷蘭目前實行一種新制度,規定價格敏感資訊或重大資訊的唯一揭露方式是透過新聞稿。所以,基本上,我們所說的是,作為一家公司,我們正在適應荷蘭的新制度。我們是一家全球營運的公司。我們參與國際金融市場,並將繼續遵守公平揭露,無論它是在美國還是在荷蘭定義的。 不過,ASML 鼓勵不同當局協調聯準會揭露價格敏感資訊的規則。
- Analyst
- Analyst
But until they do align, it seems like the tightest disclosure rule is now in the Netherlands, which requires a press release before anything material is disclosed. Is that the right interruption as ASML sees it?
但在它們達成一致之前,目前最嚴格的資訊揭露規則似乎是在荷蘭,荷蘭要求在披露任何重要資訊之前先發布新聞稿。從 ASML 的角度來看,這是正確的中斷嗎?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Absolutely. Right now the most strict rule for disclosure of price sensitive or material information is by press release only. And that is in the Netherlands.
絕對地。目前,披露價格敏感或重大資訊的最嚴格規則是只能透過新聞稿。那是在荷蘭。
- Analyst
- Analyst
All right.
好的。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
But with regard to material information, we, as a publicly traded company, in the U.S., in the Netherlands, have always been obliged to disclose material information in a timely way by a press release. We've always done that, we'll continue to do that.
但對於重大訊息,作為一家在美國、荷蘭上市的公司,我們始終有義務透過新聞稿及時披露重大訊息。我們一直這樣做,並將繼續這樣做。
- Analyst
- Analyst
I'm just saying now. So going forward, you're going to be doing a lot more press releases before or concurrent with Web casts and conferences? Would that be the way to look at it?
我現在就說。那麼,展望未來,您會在網路廣播和會議之前或同時發布更多新聞稿嗎? 那是看待它的方式嗎?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Yes.
是的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
The second clarification, you talked about the stock buyback once you reached a billion euros of net cash. I've got a couple clarifications on that. It looks like you're only about 50 million short now. Even if you burn some cash and working capital, you could probably still hit that number by the end of the first quarter, so that's the first question. Is that, you know, inaccurate assumption and should we be thinking about hearing about the share buyback program sometime after that first quarter release.
第二個澄清是,您談到一旦淨現金達到 10 億歐元就會回購股票。 我對此有幾點澄清。看起來你現在只差大約 5000 萬。即使你耗費一些現金和營運資金,你仍然可能在第一季末達到這個數字,所以這是第一個問題。您知道,這是不準確的假設嗎?我們是否應該考慮在第一季發布之後的某個時候了解股票回購計劃。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We said -- Eric said at the beginning, we have been quite clear in our communications to the market that once we hit our target level, about a billion net cash, which you are right, calculate we are about there now, that we would consider in the absence of investments into basically grow our own business, we would give that money back to the shareholder. And we have decided that we would start the preparation of a buyback plan. But we also said, we don't want to create speculation on what we're doing. So when we come to the point where we feel that we need to go out and we have concrete plans with respective sides and structures, then we would go out. So I'm not willing to speculate on when where we're willing to do that.
我們說過——埃里克一開始就說過,我們在與市場的溝通中已經非常明確地表示,一旦我們達到目標水平,大約 10 億美元的淨現金,你是對的,計算一下我們現在就達到了這個水平,我們會考慮在沒有投資的情況下發展我們自己的業務,我們會把這筆錢返還給股東。我們已經決定開始準備回購計劃。但我們也說過,我們不想引起人們對我們所做的事情的猜測。因此,當我們覺得需要出去,並且我們有具體的計劃、各自的面向和結構時,我們就會出去。所以我不願意猜測我們何時何地願意這麼做。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. I have another follow-up along those lines. One of the things that's only partially in your control on that 5 3/4% bond is the soft call provisions. If the market likes today's release or likes your stock in general, you could actually call the 5 3/4 bonds earlier than the October maturity. And calling them, the economic thing would be for people to convert. So you could, in effect, go to net cash substantially over a billion, maybe even close to a billion and a half in the span of month or so. How should we think of the share buyback program if you were to call allied force conversion of the 5 3/4 bonds?
好的。我還有另一個類似的後續行動。對於該 5 3/4% 債券,您只能部分控制的事情之一是軟贖回條款。如果市場喜歡今天發行的債券或總體上喜歡您的股票,您實際上可以在 10 月到期之前贖回 5 3/4 債券。並呼籲他們,經濟的事情就是讓人們轉變。因此,實際上,你可以在一個月左右的時間內獲得超過 10 億美元的淨現金,甚至可能接近 15 億美元。如果您將 5 3/4 債券的聯合力量轉換稱為股票回購計劃,那麼我們應該如何看待該計劃?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
I think that is speculation about what we could do in the case share prices would go either way up or down. And at this moment in time, I'm not willing to be more informative about what our plans are. Like you say, it depends on a number of variables that are not under our control, and we will judge that when the timing is there. Because like you say, it depends on a number of variables that are not under our control. We will judge that when the timing is there.
我認為,這只是關於股價上漲或下跌時我們能做什麼的猜測。目前,我還不願意透露更多我們的計劃。正如您所說,這取決於許多我們無法控制的變量,時機成熟時我們會做出判斷。因為就像你說的,這取決於許多我們無法控制的變數。 時機成熟時,我們會做出判斷。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Would there be any reason for the company not to call those bonds if you were to go through the soft call and force the convertible holders to move into stock?
如果您要透過軟調用並強制可轉換債券持有人轉為股票,那麼公司是否有理由不調用這些債券?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
No comment.
沒有意見。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Thank you for your help. Good luck the rest of the year.
好的。感謝您的幫助。祝今年餘下的時間一切順利。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Shekhar Pramanick, Moors & Cabot . Go ahead, please. Are you there?
下一個問題來自 Moors & Cabot 的 Shekhar Pramanick。請繼續。你在嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hello.
你好。
Operator
Operator
Go ahead, please sir. All right, we'll continue with Mr. Mino, DRKW Go ahead, please.
請繼續,先生。好的,我們繼續,米諾先生,DRKW,請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hi there. This is one question. Since you will start shipping to 1700 in the second quarter, can I assume that the majority of the 25 or higher tool shipments will be in the second half of the year, which is that you'll get through a ramp, you'll ship a few tools in the second quarter and then you will get quiet a lower (bat) for the second half of the year. Essentially, where I'm coming from, from air speed modeling point of view. Should we be modeling just because of that 1700 shipment come through in the second half and increasing ASP to the second half of the year?
你好呀。這是一個問題。由於您將在第二季度開始出貨至 1700 台,我是否可以假設 25 台或更多工具的出貨量大部分將在下半年進行,也就是說,您將通過一個爬坡過程,在第二季度出貨一些工具,然後在下半年獲得一個相對較低的出貨量。本質上,從空速建模的角度來看,我的觀點是這樣的。我們是否應該僅僅因為下半年有 1700 批貨物出貨而進行建模,並將 ASP 提高到下半年?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think this is a good assumption. We plan to do ship, to ship a certain numbers of tools in Q2, probably more than you may think, we're trying. But, yes, the bulk obviously is going to be in the second half. Regarding ASP It all depends on how much capacity orders we'll get. If you get much more capacity orders and a lot of KRF, which adds up of course to the famous 25 million average price on the Immersion machine, then that makes a blend to which hits us somewhere. So it's very difficult to guide on the ASP in the second half.
我認為這是一個很好的假設。我們計劃在第二季度運送一定數量的工具,可能比你想像的要多,我們正在努力。但是,是的,大部分顯然將發生在下半年。關於 ASP,這完全取決於我們將獲得多少容量訂單。如果您獲得更多產能訂單和大量 KRF,這當然會增加 Immersion 機器著名的 2500 萬平均價格,那麼這將形成對我們產生影響的混合物。因此,下半年的平均售價很難預測。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Sure. But given that you should be getting some of your customers moving into commercial production in to 2007, can we assume that on a quarterly basis from here on with the 1700 will increasingly become a bigger and bigger portion progressively quarter by quarter in your mix?
當然。但考慮到你們應該會讓一些客戶在 2007 年進入商業化生產,我們是否可以假設從現在開始,按季度計算,1700 在你的產品組合中所佔的比例會逐季度逐漸增加?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Excuse me, could you repeat?
不好意思,您能再說一次嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Just assuming that you will get some volume shipments of commercial production shipments on the 1700 in 2007, in a model, can we be continuously increasing quarter by quarter from the second quarter onwards, the number of 17 00 shipments in your mix?
假設您將在 2007 年獲得一些 1700 的商業生產出貨量,在模型中,我們是否可以從第二季度開始逐季度連續增加您的產品組合中的 1700 出貨量?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
As usual in these ramps, you have one or two quarters which represent a place where everybody wants a lot of units to set up. And then you have one or two quarters of relaxing time. So, no, you can't say that if you put a model together -- you don't want to say that it's all smooth and increasing of the you're going to see quarters high, and then going down for one or two quarters.
像往常一樣,在這些坡道上,你會有一個或兩個四分之一區,代表每個人都想設置大量單位的地方。然後你就有一到兩個季度的放鬆時間。所以,不,你不能說如果你把一個模型放在一起——你不想說一切都是平穩的和增加的,你會看到幾個季度很高,然後下降一兩個季度。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And just last clarification. Did I hear you correctly when you said that wireless is the key leading commercial production customer for Immersion? Or did I mishear that?
最後再澄清一下。您說無線是 Immersion 的主要商業製作客戶,我聽得對嗎?還是我聽錯了?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
I would not say customers, but I would say applications. A lot of drive on getting to a mobile phone with more features than we are using in the next technology. It's probably the application of choice. But again, we're not (inaudible), I just report the number of pressure that we get from this segment.
我不會說客戶,但我會說應用程式。許多人都希望獲得一款具有比我們正在使用的下一代技術更多的功能的手機。這可能是首選的應用程式。但再說一次,我們不是(聽不清楚),我只是報告我們從這個部分得到的壓力數量。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. And do you emphasize dropping prices on the 1700 as it becomes a more mature product in 2007?
好的。隨著 2007 年 1700 逐漸成為一款成熟的產品,您是否會強調降低其價格?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Of course we envision all the time to reduce our prices. In fact, to reduce our costs and then give the benefit to our customers.
當然,我們一直都設想降低價格。 事實上,就是降低我們的成本,然後讓利給我們的客戶。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Carson Yuka, WestLB Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自西德意誌州的卡森尤卡 (Carson Yuka),請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hello. A question concerning your Japanese customer. I was just wondering why none of your Japanese customers as of yet showing up in the order bank. In the last two quarters, you didn't have any orders banked in Japan, is that right? To be expected.
你好。關於您的日本客戶的一個問題。我只是想知道為什麼到目前為止您的日本客戶都沒有出現在訂單庫中。在過去兩個季度中,您在日本沒有收到任何訂單,對嗎?意料之中。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
I understand, you look at the statistics. I was looking all over trying to find out. It was first of all remember Japan is still -- our market share is small. Any orders we get, when you get a lot of orders, they are still looking at the small number in the rest of the world. They are part of this green on pages 16 of the presentation. They are in the 9% green, but they are there. Now you also have to be cautious with the book keepings on those orders. You've got some especially when you start a new customer, you report, of course, (in a letter to the FCC.) You recognize revenue as we go. Even if you book the whole machine, you may have some recognition of revenue which hit us a bit later. So what you see here is an accounting number. So, a bit difficult to read.
我明白,你看看統計數據。我到處尋找,試圖找出答案。首先要記住的是,日本的市場佔有率仍然很小。我們接到的任何訂單,當你接到大量訂單時,他們仍然在關注世界其他地方的少數訂單。它們是簡報第 16 頁的綠色部分。 它們處於 9% 的綠色區域,但它們就在那裡。現在您還必須謹慎對待這些訂單的簿記。尤其是當您開始新客戶時,您將獲得一些收入,當然,您需要報告(在給聯邦通信委員會的一封信中)。我們會在過程中確認收入。即使您預訂了整台機器,您可能會有一些收入確認,但這對我們影響會稍晚。所以您在這裡看到的是一個會計數字。 所以,讀起來有點困難。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Plus these new customers aren't going to order a large quantities. They'll order first one or two tools. Which will of course have an affect it will not be, (assuming render) a first customer be a very significant part of the backlog. That will hopefully grow over time.
此外,這些新客戶不會訂購大量產品。他們會先訂購一到兩件工具。這當然會產生影響,(假設渲染)第一個客戶不會成為積壓工作中非常重要的一部分。希望隨著時間的推移,這一數字將會成長。
- Analyst
- Analyst
That's great. Thanks. One other question. You're guiding (20 to 25) plus Immersion shipments this year. You're saying you have nine months lead time. At the moment you have an order backlog of 13. If you order (sending), so that would mean that the current quarter, you would have to sign seven to 12 plus order for emergence, is that right? Is that your expectations?
那太棒了。謝謝。還有一個問題。今年您將指導 (20 到 25) 以上的 Immersion 出貨量。你說你有九個月的準備時間。目前,你們的積壓訂單有 13 個。如果您下單(發送),那麼這意味著本季度您必須簽署 7 到 12 個訂單以及緊急訂單,對嗎?這是你的期望嗎?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Yes and no. We report bookings exactly when they are official accounting bookings and they are the appropriate paperwork and leave commitment. It is very possible in our business when we have extreme good relationship with customers that products are started and orders are coming later. This does happen regularly when you have a specification discussion. Often, in the process of building up your machine, you give some time to customers to amend the spec accordingly. We do not recognize orders in this condition. The machine is a start. It is within the time and you receive the orders a bit later.
是也不是。當預訂為正式會計預訂且為適當的文書工作並留下承諾時,我們會準確報告預訂。在我們的業務中,當我們與客戶的關係非常好時,很有可能產品開始生產,然後訂單就會隨之而來。當您進行規範討論時,這種情況確實會經常發生。通常,在建立機器的過程中,您會給客戶一些時間來相應地修改規格。我們不承認這種情況的訂單。該機器是一個啟動裝置。這是在規定時間內,您會稍後收到訂單。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay. So these eight orders you have pending at the moment, those would be orders in the way you just described?
好的。那麼,您目前待處理的這八個訂單就是您剛才描述的那種訂單嗎?
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
No, not at all. What I just described is above the eight. The eight is real orders -- sorry, it's spending in the way that you 've got one coma and two dots and things that have to be done and we just received, (not that many through this process.) You've got some of that. What I meant, is in addition to the eight, that we have about -- in addition to that, the we know of customers who have asked us to start products, which is why I have guided to the fact that we are planning for more than 25.
不,一點也不。我剛才描述的就是上面這八個。這八個是真正的訂單——抱歉,這是以你有一個逗號和兩個點以及必須要做的事情的方式支出的,我們剛剛收到,(通過這個過程沒有那麼多。)你已經得到了其中的一些。我的意思是,除了這八個之外,我們還有——除此之外,我們知道有客戶要求我們啟動產品,這就是為什麼我指導我們計劃啟動超過 25 個產品。
- Analyst
- Analyst
That's great. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
那太棒了。多謝。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Bert Sundag, (Fields) Go ahead, please.
下一個問題來自 Bert Sundag (Fields),請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Good afternoon. The question regarding the share buyback you're preparing it for this year, but it's subject to what do you confine good investments, alternative investments. Is that just like lawyer talk for saying we would not exclude anything or are you currently really in talks with other parties?
午安.關於股票回購的問題,您今年正在為此做準備,但它取決於您對良好投資和另類投資的限制。這是否就像律師所說的那樣,我們不會排除任何事情,或者您目前真的正在與其他方進行談判?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We put, I think we said last year, we put a structured system to evaluate opportunities. We don't want to buy anything. We do not just want to buy because we have cash. We don't want to buy because we want to create a (preliminary), but we want to buy things that make sense. And therefore, we have a process, by which we review very, very regularly good business plan. We have nothing, I would say concrete in front of us at this very moment. Although in truth, there are two or three business plans which are being investigated a bit more. Which as a serious probability of getting need (of a bit of money). At this moment, there is nothing of material level that we are hiding behind, etcetera. There are certain numbers of good (ID), but not too significant.
我想我們去年就說過,我們建立了一個結構化的系統來評估機會。我們不想買任何東西。我們不只是因為有現金才想買。我們不是因為想要創造(初步)而去買,而是想購買有意義的東西。因此,我們有一個流程,透過這個流程我們可以非常定期地審查好的商業計劃。我想說,此刻我們面前什麼都沒有。但事實上,有兩三個商業計劃正在接受進一步調查。這有很大的可能性需要(一點錢)。此時此刻,我們所躲藏的物質層面的東西已經不存在了。有一定數量的好東西(ID),但不是太重要。
- Analyst
- Analyst
So it's really fairly, fair to expect that the 1 billion will be used for a share buyback.
因此,預計這 10 億美元將用於股票回購是公平合理的。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Not the whole billion. The excess cash. The excess cash. There's a high probability at this moment that we will execute at the opportunistic moment.
不是全部十億。多餘的現金。多餘的現金。此時我們很有可能在有利時機執行。
- Analyst
- Analyst
All right. Thanks.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from (Mr. Manzies with Jeffries). Go ahead.
下一個問題來自(Jeffries 先生和 Manzies 先生)。前進。
- Analyst
- Analyst
(inaudible), two questions, I can ask you then. Firstly, in the Q4 period, in terms of of the four units. Could you give an idea roughly on the regions or the type of customers they were who made those orders?
(聽不清楚),我可以問你兩個問題。首先,第四季度,就四大單位而言。您能否大致介紹一下下這些訂單的地區或客戶類型?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
You're talking about the turns?
你在談論轉彎嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Exactly.
確切地。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
How do I say this without telling you who the customers are. Let me be a bit clear. I think it's has been high.
如果不告訴你客戶是誰,我該怎麼說呢?讓我說清楚一點。我認為它已經很高了。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Foundry. Could I be (a ) been spending, but has it be any other foundry in the Asian region who's also been ordering of recent.
代工。我可能是一直在花錢,但是亞洲地區還有其他鑄造廠最近也在訂購嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
No, we can't be that specific.
不,我們不能那麼具體。
- Analyst
- Analyst
In terms of your booking orders for Q4 of 55 units, does that include any numbers coming in from the new joint venture between Intel and Micron.
就您第四季的 55 台訂單而言,這是否包括來自英特爾和美光新合資企業的數字?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
(inaudible) The details are still being discussed. So I haven't heard and you may know more than I do, but I haven't heard that they are to the level of getting reorders.
(聽不清楚)細節仍在討論中。所以我沒有聽說過,你可能比我知道的更多,但我沒有聽說他們達到了獲得重新訂購的水平。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from ( ) Go ahead, sir.
下一個問題來自( )。請問,先生。
Analyst
Analyst
Good afternoon. Most of the questions I had were already asked. But can you give a reason why you're choosing a share buyback program instead of a regular program?
午安.我的大部分問題都已經被問過了。但是,您能解釋為什麼選擇股票回購計劃而不是常規計劃嗎?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. We've had that discussion several times with several people, including analysts, and the investors during shareholder meetings. The issue is that if you have a dividend policy, you want the dividend policy to least to provide stable dividends, because the shareholders that rely on the business (inaudible) want it to be stable. No matter how you look at it. This will remain a cyclical industry. We have targets of in the downturn that say single digits operating income levels and in upturns about 13%. It's quite a significant difference. So that is what you would then do for dividends. You would build in at least a buffer to make sure you can provide a stable dividend for that buffer, but it would mean that dividends would be very high. Now, and on top of that. If you look at the company and we have said that numerous -- at numerous occasions, that we think this company is still poised for growth. Growth because of the industry growth. Gross if you have attended the Analyst meeting. For the next five to seven years, we anticipate high single digit growth for industry and on top of that we're planning to increase our market share. In a gross company where from time to time we do need that cash and we talked about the possible repurchase for some time. That is less likely that you want to have a stable dividend policy. So those were the most important reasons to choose for, in this particular moment in time, for the Company, to choose for the potential of a share buyback.
是的。我們在股東大會上與包括分析師和投資者在內的一些人討論過這個問題。問題是,如果您有股息政策,您希望股息政策至少提供穩定的股息,因為依賴業務的股東(聽不清楚)希望它是穩定的。無論你怎麼看。這仍將是一個週期性行業。我們的目標是,在經濟低迷時期,營業收入維持在個位數水準;在經濟好轉時期,營業收入維持在 13% 左右。 這是一個相當顯著的差異。這就是您要對股息做的事情。您至少需要建立一個緩衝區,以確保可以為該緩衝區提供穩定的股息,但這意味著股息會非常高。現在,最重要的是。如果你看一下這家公司,我們曾多次表示,我們認為這家公司仍然具有成長的潛力。由於行業的增長而增長。如果您參加過分析師會議,那就太好了。未來五到七年,我們預計產業將實現高個位數成長,此外我們還計劃增加我們的市場份額。在一家大型公司中,我們時不時確實需要現金,我們討論了一段時間以來可能的回購。您不太可能想要製定穩定的股息政策。因此,在當前特定時刻,這些是公司選擇回購股票的最重要的原因。
Analyst
Analyst
What would be a fair amount of cash, excess cash you could use for the buyback, let's say in this year.
比如說,今年你可以用多少現金或多餘現金來回購?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That would depend on how much cash we would generate, but clearly that is something which we said earlier. (inaudible) the further details will be made public in due course. But clearly, it's a function of the cash that you generate.
這取決於我們能產生多少現金,但顯然這是我們之前說的。 (聽不清楚)進一步的細節將在適當的時候公佈。但顯然,這是您所創造的現金的函數。
Analyst
Analyst
Let's say you would see how much cash you have currently minus the convertible bonds plus the cash that people expect you to generate and then minus one billion and whatever's left is what you could use, right?
假設您看到您目前有多少現金減去可轉換債券加上人們期望您產生的現金,然後減去十億,剩下的就是您可以使用的,對嗎?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
You can do calculations.
你可以做計算。
Analyst
Analyst
Yeah, yeah, I still have my calculator.
是的,是的,我還有計算機。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's the ability of the cash and we're not going to go any more detail about volume or timing. That will be done in due course.
這是現金的能力,我們不會詳細討論數量或時間。我們將在適當的時候完成這項工作。
Analyst
Analyst
One more if I may. You also write in the same press release about significant investments and acquisitions. What would be the fields that you're currently looking at for acquisitions or additional activities apart from the flat panel which we already know that you are looking at.
如果可以的話,我再說一個。您也在同一新聞稿中寫到了重大投資和收購。除了我們已經知道您正在關注的平板之外,您目前正在考慮收購或其他活動的領域是什麼?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
We're going to disappoint you again. I don't think we can answer your question except by saying it has to be either strengthening our business or that we bring experience and trade.
我們又要讓你失望了。我認為我們無法回答您的問題,只能說要么加強我們的業務,要么帶來經驗和貿易。
Analyst
Analyst
But it wouldn't be like you'd be interested in acquiring another semiconductor company?
但這並不代表您會有興趣收購另一家半導體公司?
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
If it makes technical sense, potentially. I do not so much believe that it makes commercial sense in some ways. There is so many (to do that.)
如果從技術角度來說有意義的話,這是有可能的。我不太相信它在某些方面具有商業意義。有很多人(要做那件事)。
Analyst
Analyst
All right. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] We'll continue with Mr. Murray, Alliance Trust. Go ahead, please.
[操作員指示] 我們將繼續與 Alliance Trust 的 Murray 先生通話。 請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Good afternoon. Going back to your December slide back, the 2006 guidance is for baseline revenue at the same level of 2005 with expected upside from Immersion technology implementation at 45 nanometer volume. Does this suggest that there's no real (canalization) at the moment from Immersion or is that a misinterruption? When do you think that product starts canalizing the existing (product )?
午安.回顧您 12 月的投影片,2006 年的指導目標是基準收入與 2005 年持平,預計 45 奈米浸入式技術的實施會帶來上升空間。這是否意味著 Immersion 目前沒有真正的渠道化,或者這只是一個誤打誤撞?您認為該產品何時開始引導現有(產品)?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
(inaudible) R&D, companies buying one or two of those for the 45. They don't take the space of any other products. The rest of the products is more of the production type products. The Immersion then gets into production in '07. That's when quote unquote you can have (canalization). The good news for us. The Immersion is more expensive industry wide than machine that it would replace. And, we have the belief that our products will have even a higher share of market than what this is replacing. In any event for us,all of your ASP and more market share will yield further growth. Everything being equal in 2007.
(聽不清楚)研發,公司為 45 美元買一兩個。它們不會佔用任何其他產品的空間。其餘產品更多的是生產型產品。 Immersion 於 2007 年投入生產。那時你就可以進行(管道化)。對我們來說是個好消息。 在整個行業中,Immersion 比它所取代的機器更昂貴。 而且,我們相信我們的產品將擁有比其所取代的產品更高的市場份額。無論如何,對於我們來說,您的所有 ASP 和更多的市場份額都將帶來進一步的成長。 2007 年一切如常。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Is it too simplistic to look at the revenue coming from Immersion this year and see that it's incremental and just add it on to slightly grown baseline?
如果將今年 Immersion 的收入視為增量收入並將其添加到略微增長的基線上,那麼這種看法是否過於簡單化了?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
It is too simplistic. The sophisticated calculation would be to take the 20 to 25ish machine multiply by the Delta price compared to the technology players last year that would be your side. Then you'll have enough side in market share and enough side in cycle. Unicycle, the unicycle this year was X%, next year it will be Y% (inaudible). It's a bit complicated, but I hope you're model will allow you to do that.
這太簡單了。複雜的計算方法是將 20 到 25 台機器乘以 Delta 價格,與去年的技術參與者進行比較,這就是您這邊的價格。這樣,你就會在市場佔有率和週期方面擁有足夠的優勢。獨輪車,今年的獨輪車是 X%,明年將是 Y%(聽不清楚)。 這有點複雜,但我希望你的模型允許你這樣做。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
The Immersion technology is a technology that addresses 45 nanometer, which is on the (IBS) road map. What we're looking at is a technology that is addressing one node. The 65 nanometer node that we have been starting to ship this year, is also, you could ask the same question, was that an incremental part of the revenue. No, it is an essential part of what this Company and what the industry is all about as long as we stay on the wall to wall curve. Until that stops, then you could say that the last technology note was an incremental note. If as far as we're concerned, that's very far out.
浸入式技術是針對45奈米的技術,位於(IBS)路線圖上。我們正在研究的是一種解決一個節點的技術。我們今年開始出貨的 65 奈米節點也是,您可能會問同樣的問題,這是否是收入的增量部分。不,只要我們繼續保持這種勢頭,這就是本公司和整個行業的一個重要組成部分。直到這種情況停止,你才可以說最後的技術說明是一個增量說明。就我們而言,這還很遙遠。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next question (inaudible) Go ahead, please.
下一個問題(聽不清楚)請繼續。
Analyst
Analyst
Good afternoon. Just would like to know if you have many clients placing more than one order for the Immersion tools. I would like to understand if most of the customers for the time being are more for research and development or if they are there already for volume production?
午安.我只是想知道是否有許多客戶對 Immersion 工具下了多個訂單。我想了解目前大部分客戶是更多的用於研發還是已經用於量產?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
A certain number of customers are buying two tools, but for R&D, when they have more than one process. A typical example is memory and logic in the same company. The -- certain numbers of forward-looking customers have already planned with us. This is in the complex questions that you guys have asked about the structure. Within this environment, a certain number of customers have said, I want one plus X for production. And you are starting to have that discussion happen.
一定數量的客戶會購買兩種工具,但用於研發,因為他們有多個流程。一個典型的例子就是同一家公司的記憶體和邏輯。一定數量的有遠見的客戶已經與我們制定了計劃。這是你們詢問的有關結構的複雜問題。在這種環境下,一定數量的客戶說,我想要一加X用於生產。你已經開始進行這樣的討論。
Analyst
Analyst
Okay. So, if, let's say you are going to sell 25 unit this year. That mean it's half the number of clients or more?
好的。因此,假設您今年要銷售 25 台。這是否意味著客戶數量減少了一半或更多?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
It would be less than 25 customers, yes.
是的,顧客人數會少於 25 人。
Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
Final question.
最後一個問題。
Operator
Operator
All right. The final question is from Mr. Orgie, JPMorgan Go ahead, please.
好的。最後一個問題來自摩根大通的奧吉先生,請繼續。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much. Can I ask a couple of questions to Eric? Last year you talked about 40% of gross margin as being where you want to cap this business and that for any market share. Is that the truth, especially for the second quarter?
非常感謝。我可以問 Eric 幾個問題嗎?去年您談到 40% 的毛利率是您希望這項業務以及任何市場份額的上限。這是事實嗎,尤其是對於第二季而言?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Yes, exactly , so the nominal target is 40% and we will not hit it every quarter, depending on volume and mix and etcetera, but it is so the drive of the company to be of value for investors. To allow growth, but also to build value for customers. We think that 40% is a good compromise and can be managed at the moment.
是的,確實如此,名目目標是 40%,但我們不會每季都達到這個目標,這取決於產量、產品組合等等,但這是公司為投資者創造價值的動力。實現成長,同時也為客戶創造價值。我們認為 40% 是一個很好的折衷方案,目前可以實現。
Analyst
Analyst
Can we get that in the second quarter?
我們能在第二季實現這一目標嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Well, we are ready to guide Q2 a bit later.
好吧,我們準備好稍後指導 Q2。
Analyst
Analyst
You said you have 12 new customers. They're probably some non-IC customers. Can you compare for us the profitability of those non-IC customers. Are they fairly the same?
您說您有 12 位新客戶。他們可能是一些非 IC 客戶。您能否為我們比較一下那些非 IC 客戶的獲利能力?它們真的一樣嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
So in our new customers, we've got a certain number in IC, accounting, I think we've got three or four, and the rest are as you know we have a business unique course called special applications, which is basically a way to use some of our technology to resolve problems from other segments. Unfortunately, sometimes very small, but at least we've got solutions for them. The typical one. This is where all those customers come from.
因此,在我們的新客戶中,我們在 IC、會計領域有一定數量的客戶,我想我們有三四個,其餘的,正如你所知,我們有一個稱為特殊應用程序的獨特業務課程,這基本上是一種使用我們的一些技術來解決其他領域問題的方法。不幸的是,有時問題很小,但至少我們已經找到了解決方案。典型的一個。所有這些顧客都是從這裡來的。
Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Finally, on revenues, we saw a jump in revenues in Q3 and Q4. Is this a (new rate or)?
好的。最後,就收入而言,我們看到第三季和第四季的收入有所成長。這是(新利率或)嗎?
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
No, it's an extremely complicated to find trends through this quarter to quarter. I would discourage, of course, there's a bit of trend, a bit of positive news and negative news, but I discourage all of us to try to time exactly those revenues. We've been burnt last year in Q1 where, in fact, some of the revenue didn't come in Q1, but in Q2 and I want to be a bit cautious.
不,透過每個季度來發現趨勢是極其複雜的。當然,我不鼓勵這樣做,因為有一些趨勢、一些正面消息和負面消息,但我不鼓勵我們所有人試圖準確計算這些收入的時間。我們去年第一季遭受了損失,事實上,部分收入不是來自第一季度,而是來自第二季度,所以我想謹慎一點。
- Vice President Communications
- Vice President Communications
The fact is about 75 million a quarter, 50 million through the contracted hours and the rest is incidental and field option sales. Our customers wanted to complete our budgets, so really it's like Eric said on some incidental factors. All leverage, I think the 75 million a quarter is a reasonable value.
事實是每季度大約 7500 萬美元,其中 5000 萬美元是透過合約工時獲得的,其餘的則是附帶收入和現場選擇權銷售。我們的客戶希望完成我們的預算,所以實際上就像 Eric 所說的那樣,有一些偶然因素。所有槓桿,我認為每季 7500 萬是一個合理的價值。
Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
- Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our Q&A and this concludes our conference call. Thank you for joining us and see you next time. Good-bye.
女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束,我們的電話會議也到此結束。感謝您的參與,下次再見。再見。
- Chairman, President, CEO
- Chairman, President, CEO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML2005 annual and fourth quarter 2005 conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,ASML2005 年度和 2005 年第四季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。