艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2005 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ASML first quarter 2005 conference call on April 13, 2005. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，歡迎參加 2005 年 4 月 13 日舉行的 ASML 2005 年第一季電話會議。[操作員說明]。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung.

我現在想把會議交給克雷格·德揚先生。

Mr. DeYoung, you may start.

德揚先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you operator.

謝謝運營商。

I would like to extend a warm welcome to everybody on behalf of ASML, this is our Q1 conference call.

我謹代表ASML向大家表示熱烈歡迎，這是我們的第一季電話會議。

Joining me today is our CEO, Eric Meurice, and our CFO, Peter Wennink.

今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長彼得溫尼克 (Peter Wennink)。

Just by way of a little call protocol, the duration of the call is 1 hour.

僅透過一點通話協議，通話時間為 1 小時。

We would ask that you limit your questions to 1.

我們要求您將問題限制為 1 個。

And then if the time allows, we will come back to your for a second question.

然後如果時間允許，我們會再回答你的第二個問題。

But this will allow us to get as many calls in as possible.

但這將使我們能夠接到盡可能多的電話。

Having said that, I would like to remind you that the matters discussed in this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, economic conditions; product demand and semi-conductor equipment industry capacity; worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the principle product of our customer base; competitive products and pricing; manufacturing efficiencies; new product development; availability to enforce patents; the outcome of international property litigation; availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment; trade environment and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML's annual report on form 20-F and other filings with the U.S.

話雖如此，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於經濟狀況；產品需求及半導體設備產業產能；全球半導體需求和製造產能利用率，半導體是我們客戶群的主要產品；有競爭力的產品和定價；製造效率；新產品開發;可以執行專利；國際財產訴訟的結果；原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性； ASML 20-F 表格年度報告和其他向美國提交的文件中包含的風險因素中指出的貿易環境和其他風險。

Securities and Exchange Commission.

證券交易委員會。

Thanks for bearing with me on that.

感謝您對我的耐心。

What I'd like to do now is turn over the phone for a brief comment from Eric, followed by your questions.

我現在想做的是打開電話，聽取艾瑞克的簡短評論，然後提出您的問題。

Eric?

艾瑞克？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you Craig.

謝謝你克雷格。

Good morning.

早安.

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thank you for attending the call.

感謝您參加電話會議。

Message will be brief.

訊息將很簡短。

In fact, we have got 2 messages.

事實上，我們收到了 2 則訊息。

One is on execution.

其中之一正在執行中。

Execution in Q1 has been excellent.

第一季的執行情況非常出色。

The results have been, as you can see, a bit shy from an average expectation.

正如您所看到的，結果有點低於平均預期。

However, extremely good compared to last year's Q1, compared to last year's Q4 and when compared to the history of ASML.

然而，與去年第一季、去年第四季以及 ASML 的歷史相比，這是非常好的。

This is good at the top-line level, with a 51% growth.

這在營收水準上表現良好，成長了 51%。

Good at the gross margin level, with a 40% gross margin achieved.

毛利率水準良好，毛利率達40%。

Good at the operating income level, where we are reaching 21%.

營業收入水準良好，我們已達到 21%。

Good at the net income level, where we are nearly 15%.

淨利潤水準良好，接近 15%。

All this with an improvement in market share and execution, which therefore is, I would say, near flawless in terms of our commitment to improvement of gross profitability and liquidity.

所有這一切都伴隨著市場份額和執行力的提高，因此，我想說，就我們對提高毛利和流動性的承諾而言，這幾乎是完美的。

Very good news here is this improvement in execution is going to continue for long projects.

好消息是，這種執行方面的改進將在長期專案中持續下去。

Basically, capability of our Company to execute to our financial targets.

基本上，我們公司執行財務目標的能力。

Second message is the outlook.

第二個訊息是前景。

This better machine, this machine which improves quarter to quarter is, I think, in fact a U-curve capacity utilization from our own customers.

我認為，這台更好的機器，這台逐季改進的機器實際上是我們自己客戶的 U 型產能利用率。

We were hesitating, if you remember, our message at the conference in the end of Q4 was one of uncertainty.

如果你還記得的話，我們當時在猶豫，我們在第四季末的會議上傳達的訊息是不確定的。

We didn't know if there was going to be a pick up or a fall.

我們不知道是否會上漲或下跌。

And it took us about 3 months and in fact, the whole of March to clarify a bit the situation in the sense that we are not seeing a pick-up.

我們花了大約 3 個月，事實上，整個 3 月的時間才澄清了一些情況，因為我們沒有看到任何回升。

We are seeing a stabilization, which means what I call a U-curve utilization shape, usage.

我們看到了一種穩定，這意味著我所說的 U 曲線利用率形狀。

And that forces a field of time where the old are entering and stabilizing at some level.

這迫使舊人進入並在某種程度上穩定下來的時間領域。

The good news is the level that we are seeing at this moment is high enough for us to execute to our financial target.

好消息是我們目前看到的水平足以讓我們執行我們的財務目標。

It is not extraordinary.

這並不特別。

Therefore, we are not seeing a plain recovery.

因此，我們並沒有看到明顯的復甦。

But we are seeing a sustained level, which again will allow us to deliver.

但我們看到了一個持續的水平，這將使我們能夠再次實現目標。

So these are the messages that I wanted to clarify, underline.

這些是我想要澄清、強調的訊息。

One is great execution, strengthening the Company.

一是執行力強，做強企業。

We are a maturing Company, which can perform on the cycle.

我們是一家成熟的公司，可以循環執行。

Cycle at this moment is flat, waiting for recovery.

此時週期平坦，等待復甦。

And we have a certain number of signs that recovery will be coming.

我們有一定數量的跡象表明復甦即將到來。

However, we wanted to show a realistic process view to say that this recovery may not happen tomorrow.

然而，我們想展示一個現實的過程視圖，表明這種復甦可能不會在明天發生。

On this, I would like to leave it to questions.

關於這一點，我想留待提問。

Thank you Mr. Meurice. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

謝謝莫里斯先生。 [操作員說明]。

The first question comes from Mr. Nav Sheera, Citigroup.

第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Nav Sheera 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Good afternoon gents.

先生們下午好。

Eric, you have made your prognosis for the cycle pretty clearly.

艾瑞克，你對週期的預測已經非常清楚了。

And I just wanted to concentrate on things which are probably more in your control, because in the presentation you have alluded to both lead time reduction and cost-control programs, which -- when at the last set of quarterly numbers you were reluctant to give targets.

我只是想集中精力於您可能更能控制的事情，因為在演示中您提到了縮短交貨時間和成本控制計劃，當您看到最後一組季度數據時，您不願意透露這些計劃目標。

But on this occasion you have.

但這次你有。

I just wanted to ask you to expand a bit, please, on how you are going to reduce your lead times and also shed some light in terms of your reduction in cost of goods sold, as well for the TWINSCAN systems.

我只是想請您詳細說明您將如何減少交貨時間，並就如何降低銷售成本以及 TWINSCAN 系統提供一些說明。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

I heard the first part of your question on lead time.

我聽到了你關於交貨時間的問題的第一部分。

The second part is on cost controls.

第二部分是成本控制。

Just how you are reducing the cost of goods sold for TWINSCAN?

您如何降低 TWINSCAN 的商品銷售成本？

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Yes, again we are in a continuous improvement mode in terms of our ability to deliver value to our customer, which is lead-time and cost, which is profitability.

是的，我們再次處於持續改善模式，為客戶提供價值，即交貨時間和成本，即獲利能力。

On the lead-time, you have seen from the presentation which is on the net that we are targeting now about 20% reduction on our cycle time, which is the technical cycle time of building a machine.

關於交付週期，您可以從網路上的演示中看到，我們現在的目標是縮短週期時間（即製造機器的技術週期時間）約 20%。

And we think we can achieve that number by Q4.

我們認為我們可以在第四季度實現這個數字。

And we think we can use this improved cycle time plus smart buffering and smart planning to reduce our lead-time, which is the time between taking an order and delivering, by 30%.

我們認為我們可以利用這種改進的周期時間加上智慧緩衝和智慧規劃來將交貨時間（即接受訂單和交貨之間的時間）縮短 30%。

So 20% cycle time reduction, 30% lead time reduction.

因此，週期時間縮短 20%，交貨時間縮短 30%。

The way to do this is smarter manufacturing, where we are going to use a smarter shift system.

實現這一目標的方法是更聰明的製造，我們將使用更智慧的輪班系統。

At this moment we are not using this.

目前我們還沒有使用這個。

We are using voluntary labels and applying these different labels to the different machines we have.

我們正在使用自願標籤，並將這些不同的標籤應用到我們擁有的不同機器上。

Now we are going to have trained people at the same level, days and nights, 7 days a week.

現在，我們將每週 7 天、日日夜夜地對同一級別的人員進行培訓。

And we expect this to be a very, very important point to achieve some, I would say, parallel work on some machines and therefore gain into cycle time.

我們希望這對於在某些機器上實現一些並行工作並因此獲得周期時間來說是非常非常重要的一點。

In terms of lead-time, we are doing -- in fact, we have discovered that we can do a bit of better planning on critical components.

在交貨時間方面，我們正在做——事實上，我們發現我們可以對關鍵組件做一些更好的規劃。

Not too many of those, but those critical components need to be buffered, need to be put in stock.

這些不是太多，但那些關鍵部件需要緩衝，需要庫存。

That's not a lot of money.

那不是很多錢。

That's not a lot of working capital.

這並不是很多營運資金。

That also will be shared with suppliers.

這也將與供應商共享。

And that will allow us to claim the additional 10% improvement on lead-time.

這將使我們能夠額外縮短 10% 的交貨時間。

We are, of course, helped very much in this process by Zeiss, who is very much contributing to this -- to improvement.

當然，我們在這個過程中得到了蔡司的大力幫助，蔡司為此做出了極大的貢獻——改進。

On the cost control, clearly 2 initiatives.

在成本控制上，明確2項措施。

One is on basic cost of goods sold.

一是銷售商品的基本成本。

As you know, this comes from looking at the spec, improving the spec, reducing the things which are not used, coming with evolution of material used, from expensive material to less expensive material, etc.

如您所知，這來自於查看規格、改進規格、減少未使用的東西，以及所用材料的演變，從昂貴的材料到較便宜的材料等。

It is extremely technical. 100 line items per machine.

這是非常技術性的。每台機器 100 個行項目。

And we are executing on this and we have basically identified significant savings.

我們正在執行此操作，並且基本上已經確定了可觀的節省。

So in addition, we are working with our suppliers, getting to be both sides more efficient.

此外，我們也與供應商合作，提高雙方的效率。

And we are getting certain numbers of price reduction.

我們正在獲得一定數量的降價。

So price and redesigns will lead to about a 10% reduction of cost of our volume TWINSCAN, our basic TWINSCAN, within Q4 timeframe.

因此，價格和重新設計將導致我們的大量 TWINSCAN（我們的基本 TWINSCAN）成本在第四季度內降低約 10%。

Second is the initiative, which I have, on purpose, not quantified at this time.

其次是主動性，我是故意的，目前沒有量化。

We are working to strengthen our capability to be more variable in costs and using more outside vendors and outside, I would say, support on non-critical items.

我們正在努力增強我們的能力，以提高成本的可變性，並使用更多的外部供應商和外部（我想說的是）對非關鍵項目的支援。

And with the smart contracts, we think we can [viabilize] to load, which is another way of saying that we feel much more comfortable to lead a business with a natural breakeven point.

有了智慧合約，我們認為我們可以[可行]加載，這是另一種說法，我們感覺更舒服地領導一家具有自然盈虧平衡點的企業。

And therefore, you have seen fairly significant, I would say, confidence that in view of the -- in spite of the U-shaped environment in which we are, we are fairly confident in guiding to the fact that we will be meeting our financial targets, which I repeat, as we said 3 months ago, trying to execute a 15% operating income.

因此，我想說，你們已經看到了相當大的信心，儘管我們所處的 U 型環境，我們還是相當有信心引導我們實現我們的財務目標。目標，我重複一遍，正如我們3 個月前所說的那樣，試圖執行15% 的營業收入。

That is EBIT to sales on the cycle.

這就是周期中的息稅前利潤與銷售額之比。

So up plus down, delivering 15% on average.

所以上下加起來，平均達到 15%。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Am I right in assuming that the 30% lead time reduction allows you to be able to ship the TWINSCAN within 6 months of receipt of order by the end of this year?

我的假設是，交貨時間縮短 30%，使您能夠在今年年底收到訂單後 6 個月內發貨 TWINSCAN？

Yes.

是的。

This is the plan.

這就是計劃。

It's a bit more complicated than that.

實際情況比這要複雜一些。

As you know, there are more lead times than products, and depending on which maturity you're talking about.

如您所知，交貨時間比產品還要長，具體取決於您所談論的成熟度。

But on average you are not far.

但平均而言，你並不遙遠。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的馬修·蓋爾。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

I wanted to ask a question really to the Q2 order guidance that you gave.

我真的想對您提供的第二季訂單指導提出一個問題。

First, could you just clarify, you're expecting a downtick in orders in Q2.

首先，您能否澄清一下，您預計第二季的訂單會下降。

Are you referring to new orders or is this only referring to total order demand, [used together]?

您指的是新訂單還是僅指總訂單需求[一起使用]？

It is total orders.

這是總訂單。

The reason of our, I would say, guidance, which of course we considered before forwarding to you as information.

我想說的是，我們提供指導的原因，當然我們在將其作為訊息轉發給您之前已經考慮過。

Of course, we are in an industry where it is an extremely difficult call when the business gets better, because every customer [is going to] take the call and puts you tons of orders at the moment they get their own customers to move their volume.

當然，在我們所處的行業，當業務好轉時，接到電話是一個極其困難的事情，因為每個客戶都會接聽電話，並在他們讓自己的客戶移動他們的數量時給你下大量訂單。 。

But we decided to be on the conservative side, because we believe that the memory segment has seriously booked to technology nodes, the new technology nodes in the first half.

但我們決定採取保守的態度，因為我們認為記憶體領域已經嚴重預訂了技術節點，也就是上半年的新技術節點。

And we believe it will take them a bit of time to put all this capacity into action before they have enough, even bandwidth, to go and put the next big batch of order.

我們相信，他們需要一些時間才能將所有這些能力付諸實踐，然後才能有足夠的，甚至是頻寬，來下一批訂單。

Which is why we got a bit disappointed in the March timeframe, where in recent discussions about the next big batch of orders of the memory sectors, we clearly understood that there was a priority.

這就是為什麼我們對三月的時間框架感到有點失望，在最近關於記憶體部門下一批訂單的討論中，我們清楚地知道有一個優先事項。

Which is to focus on digesting the significant orders that we shipped in the past 6 months.

重點是消化我們在過去 6 個月發貨的重要訂單。

Your new orders should be down sequentially as well in Q2?

你們的新訂單在第二季也應該會連續下降嗎？

We still -- certainly.

我們仍然——當然。

We expect the numbers to be lower than the 35 that we achieved in Q1.

我們預計這一數字將低於第一季的 35 個。

And which is probably in the other trend I wanted to mention, which showed our conservatism, which is the Foundry business.

這可能是我想提到的另一個趨勢，它顯示了我們的保守主義，即代工業務。

Some of us, and some of you, have contacted the foundries in the January/February timeframe.

我們中的一些人和你們中的一些人已經在一月/二月的時間範圍內聯繫了鑄造廠。

And all of us felt comfortable that the orders would come back because [a little bit in] parameters, particularly stock, was going in the right directions.

我們所有人都對訂單會回來感到放心，因為[一點]參數，特別是庫存，正在朝著正確的方向發展。

And overall, semiconductor sales were going in the right direction.

整體而言，半導體銷售正朝著正確的方向發展。

However, this wave hasn't yet happened.

然而，這一波浪潮還沒有發生。

Now, we are comfortable that the different parameters of the business are still improving.

現在，我們感到滿意的是，業務的不同參數仍在改善。

And therefore, this wave is on its way.

因此，這一波浪潮正在來臨。

We cannot yet time it, basically.

基本上我們還無法確定時間。

And thus, because we could not time it, we elected to put a conservative view on order entry for Q2.

因此，由於我們無法計時，我們選擇對第二季的訂單輸入持保守觀點。

And we did so because what we have been able to identify is still high enough for us to deliver this fairly good year.

我們這樣做是因為我們已經能夠確定的水平仍然足夠高，足以讓我們度過這個相當不錯的一年。

So we thought it our duty to basically give a message of caution about the run rate, but of optimism about that run rate not being too long.

因此，我們認為我們的責任基本上是對運行率發出謹慎的訊息，但對運行率不會太長持樂觀態度。

But just maybe to clarify, your Q2 guidance reflects a more conservative number than it would be if you were just using your customer forecast right now, i.e. you're taking a discount from what they're telling you?

但也許需要澄清一下，您的第二季指導反映的數字比您現在僅使用客戶預測的數字更為保守，即您正在從他們告訴您的內容中獲得折扣？

Complicated to say.

說起來複雜。

We are always doing this.

我們一直在做這件事。

You always have customers -- in fact this is the big game here, where customers don't want to lose their slot.

你總是有客戶——事實上，這是這裡的一場大遊戲，客戶不想失去他們的位置。

So your statement is valid in every circumstance.

所以你的說法在任何情況下都是有效的。

Customers would rarely tell you that they don't need a machine, because they know if they say that they lose the opportunity to get service with the fastest lead time.

客戶很少告訴您他們不需要機器，因為他們知道如果他們說他們會失去以最快的交貨時間獲得服務的機會。

However, I can translate it differently.

不過，我可以用不同的方式翻譯它。

We didn't do more of a sanitization than we usually do.

我們沒有比平常做更多的消毒工作。

I'll add a little bit to that now.

我現在要補充一點。

We internally talk about the conversion order rate.

我們內部討論轉換訂單率。

And the conversion order rate is basically the actual orders that you booked in the quarter versus what you expect on the base of the customer contact.

轉換訂單率基本上是您在該季度預訂的實際訂單與您根據客戶聯繫所期望的訂單。

And the customer contacts, like Eric just said, is based on their CapEx plans and on their capacity and on their plans to actually have a capacity.

正如艾瑞克剛才所說，客戶聯繫是基於他們的資本支出計劃、他們的能力以及他們實際擁有能力的計劃。

So when you look at the order conversion rate, and we took it for the first quarter, it was a bit disappointing to us, just like Eric said, because we did expect that certain pockets of customers, especially foundries, would be more present in the order intake.

因此，當您查看第一季的訂單轉換率時，我們有點失望，就像艾瑞克所說，因為我們確實預計某些客戶，尤其是代工廠，會更多地出現在訂單攝取量。

If we then take our expectation for this quarter, and we apply the same quarter conversion rate, because the customer body language isn't any different over the last couple of weeks.

如果我們採用本季的預期，並應用相同的季度轉換率，因為客戶的肢體語言在過去幾週沒有任何不同。

So we apply that same order conversion rate.

因此，我們應用相同的訂單轉換率。

We come to this more conservative guidance of Q2.

我們對第二季的指導更加保守。

And that's how we do it.

我們就是這樣做的。

It's how we see the market right now.

這就是我們現在看待市場的方式。

It's how our customers are basically telling our sales force what they need.

這就是我們的客戶基本上告訴我們的銷售人員他們需要什麼的方式。

But it is also the level of uncertainty that they clearly radiate when it comes to actually placing the order.

但在實際下訂單時，他們明顯表現出一定程度的不確定性。

That just makes us more cautious and say let's not go to a higher order conversion rate than what we saw in Q1.

這只會讓我們更加謹慎，並表示我們不要追求比第一季更高的訂單轉換率。

I think that's the main reason.

我認為這是主要原因。

And a final follow-up question on the --

最後一個後續問題是──

We're going to have to move on.

我們必須繼續前進。

I apologize.

我道歉。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks guys.

多謝你們。

Thanks Matt.

謝謝馬特。

The next question is from Jan-Willem Berghuis, Kempen & Co. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 Kempen & Co. 的 Jan-Willem Berghuis。先生，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Good morning.

早安.

This morning I listened to the press conference call and I think, Mr. Meurice, you made quite an interesting remark on that you were in talks with some customers, also related to the discussion on market conditions, which were hesitating to place orders.

今天早上我聽了新聞發布會，我認為莫里斯先生，你在與一些客戶交談時說了一句很有趣的話，也涉及到市場狀況的討論，他們在猶豫下訂單。

And actually they were looking for delivery in the June timeframe.

事實上，他們希望在六月的時間內交貨。

Can you confirm this?

你能否證實這一點？

And can you confirm that these were 2 foundry customers?

您能否確認這是 2 個代工廠客戶？

Yes.

是的。

I can confirm this, obviously.

顯然，我可以證實這一點。

We have been happily surprised that some of the orders that were negotiated in March in fact did happen, a [bigger] number did happen in the last week or so.

我們很高興地驚訝於三月份談判的一些訂單實際上確實發生了，[更大的]數量確實發生在上週左右。

That these are requested for delivery time, but again, I repeat it, the request by customers.

這些是要求交貨時間的，但我再說一遍，是客戶的要求。

And we probably will not be able to do this, although we probably will ship early after that.

我們可能無法做到這一點，儘管我們可能會在那之後提前發貨。

These very specific orders are memory.

這些非常具體的命令就是記憶。

Okay.

好的。

But given the remarks you made just a minute ago, you don't expect them to be -- to come through in the remainder of the year, given your orders in the first half?

但考慮到你一分鐘前發表的言論，考慮到你在上半年的命令，你不認為它們會在今年剩餘時間內實現？

Or do you still believe it's an option for the second half of the year that these orders will come through?

或者您仍然認為這些訂單將在下半年完成嗎？

In fact, you have discovered our secret is we are a bit on the conservative.

事實上，您已經發現我們的秘密是我們有點保守。

Yes.

是的。

That's what I thought.

我也這麼想。

Okay.

好的。

We do -- in other terms, we wanted to reset the curve.

我們確實——換句話說，我們想重置曲線。

So V-curve, that is you expect immediate [order] from us.

所以，V 型曲線，就是您期望我們立即發出[訂單]。

We just said no.

我們只是說不。

The model is not this.

模型不是這個。

It's a U-curve and at some point it will go.

這是一條 U 形曲線，在某個時刻它會改變。

The good news is we solely think that it's going to go up again.

好消息是我們只認為它會再次上漲。

And that's the message we're giving.

這就是我們要傳達的訊息。

And this is where the conservatism is.

這就是保守主義的所在。

It's better than it looks when you just say Q2 booking is going to be low.

當你只是說第二季的預訂量將會很低時，情況比看起來要好。

We say Q2 booking is going to continue low, but at some point the curve is going to go up pretty strongly.

我們說第二季的預訂量將繼續保持低位，但在某個時候，曲線將大幅上升。

The good news is the basic curve.

好消息是基本曲線。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Odess(ph), Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林證券公司 Odess(ph) 先生的人。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Mr. Odess, Merrill Lynch?

奧德斯先生，美林？

Are you there sir?

先生你在嗎？

Apparently not operator.

顯然不是運營商。

Go to the next one.

轉到下一篇。

The next question is from Mr. Gaudois, Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題是德意志銀行高杜瓦先生提出的。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Hi there.

你好呀。

Could you give us a bit more clarity on average selling prices development beyond your guidance of €13.3m for shipments in the second quarter?

您能否更清楚地介紹一下第二季出貨量 1,330 萬歐元的平均銷售價格發展？

Just looking at the ASPs in your backlog, if I take out what you have to ship in Q2, I have got ASPs for what is still in the backlog after that, around €12.5m.

只需查看您的積壓訂單中的 ASP，如果我取出您在第二季度必須發貨的產品，我會得到此後積壓訂單中的 ASP，大約 1250 萬歐元。

I am wondering if this is the right number to start with for ASPs in the third quarter shipments and what will be the trend into the fourth quarter.

我想知道這是否是第三季出貨量平均銷售價格的正確數字，以及第四季的趨勢是什麼。

Again, of course, starting from a point which is arguably higher than expectations for the second quarter.

當然，同樣，起點可以說高於第二季的預期。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very difficult questions in the sense that we, as you know, are very granular.

如您所知，從某種意義上說，這是非常困難的問題，我們的問題非常細緻。

We -- to clarify, the point is we have certain numbers of machines at very high end, the 1400, 0.93-NA.

需要澄清的是，我們擁有一定數量的非常高端的機器，即 1400 台、0.93-NA。

These are very expensive machines.

這些都是非常昂貴的機器。

And having 5 or 10 in the quarter makes a significant difference from the average ASP.

當季度出現 5 或 10 次時，與平均 ASP 相比有顯著差異。

Clearly, we are very optimistic about Q2.

顯然，我們對第二季非常樂觀。

We are going to, again, deliver a fairly good performance.

我們將再次拿出相當不錯的表現。

We are going to deliver growth compared to Q1.

與第一季相比，我們將實現成長。

And this Q2 is highly loaded with machines, 1400s, which is why you have an ASP level which is significant.

第二季的機器負載很高，有 1400 台，這就是為什麼 ASP 等級很重要。

Q3 and Q4, now you are asking me to be more precise as to the expected mix.

第三季和第四季度，現在您要求我更準確地說明預期的組合。

This I will try to avoid answering you.

這個我會盡量避免回答你。

This is where the uncertainty comes.

這就是不確定性的來源。

If you play a 1400, the technology transition at foundry or at IDM, the price will be the same.

如果你玩1400，代工廠或IDM的技術轉型，價格會是一樣的。

If you play a capacity scenario, the price will be low but the volume will be high.

如果玩容量場景，價格會低，但量會大。

So extremely complicated to answer your question.

回答你的問題非常複雜。

Just a clarification about, of course, in your press release you are saying that your gross margin guidance in Q3 is based on lower volumes.

當然，請澄清一下，您在新聞稿中表示，第三季的毛利率指引是基於較低的銷量。

I am assuming lower volumes than Q2.

我假設銷量低於第二季。

So in that context, I am assuming still that Q3 is not a quarter where you would have volume-driven pushes, i.e. one considers the 1400 will be high in the mix.

因此，在這種情況下，我仍然假設第三季度不會出現銷售驅動的季度，即人們認為 1400 將在混合中處於高位。

That's really what I was trying for.

這確實是我一直在努力的目標。

You were talking about levels of granularity.

您正在談論粒度級別。

In some ways, yes, you could imagine that 1 1400 equals 1.3 code and code volume products, if you see what I mean.

在某些方面，是的，如果您明白我的意思，您可以想像 1 1400 等於 1.3 代碼和代碼量乘積。

So when we say we are going to be lower in volume, it's a certainty.

因此，當我們說我們將減少產量時，這是肯定的。

But it could be a bit more 1400 or a bit less of that.

但可能比 1400 多一點，也可能少一點。

And this is why I didn't want to be, at this moment, committed to giving the ASP.

這就是為什麼我此時不想承諾提供 ASP。

Okay.

好的。

And then just -- without too much granularity short term, and if you look in 2006, what in your mind is the current likely bracket of ASPs?

然後只是 - 短期內沒有太多的粒度，如果您看看 2006 年，您認為目前可能的 ASP 範圍是什麼？

You're considering a similar level than Q2 or no?

您是否正在考慮與 Q2 類似的等級？

There is a significant chance for increase.

有很大的增加機會。

We are introducing in Q1 of 2006 our Hyper-NA machine.

我們將在 2006 年第一季推出 Hyper-NA 機器。

We are taking orders at this very moment.

我們此時此刻正在接受訂單。

In fact, we are negotiating orders at this very moment.

事實上，我們此時此刻正在洽談訂單。

It looks to be a successful machine.

它看起來是一台成功的機器。

And it is a highly -- fairly expensive machine, which is even above the 1400 numbers which we just talked about.

這是一台相當昂貴的機器，甚至高於我們剛才談到的 1400 個數字。

So we see high probability that the ASP will continue growth.

因此，我們認為平均售價將持續成長的可能性很高。

And especially, Nick, in the quarters where volumes are low and the technology demand from customers is still there, we'll be highly focused on the really leading-edge tools.

特別是，尼克，在銷售較低且客戶對技術需求仍然存在的季度，我們將高度關注真正領先的工具。

And that has a positive impact on the ASP.

這對 ASP 產生正面影響。

But, just like Eric said, it's difficult with relatively low numbers to give you an exact ASP because mix issues, 1 or 2 more or less 1400s will have an impact, as you may understand.

但是，就像Eric 所說的那樣，很難用相對較低的數字為您提供準確的ASP，因為混合問題，1 或2 個或多或少的1400 將會產生影響，正如您可能理解的那樣。

But for 2006 we are introducing this particular tool, so this trend of rising ASPs, driven still by leading-edge needs of our customers, that is almost a given.

但 2006 年我們將推出這項特殊工具，因此 ASP 上升的趨勢仍然是由我們客戶的前沿需求所推動的，這幾乎是必然的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much for your help.

非常感謝您的幫忙。

The next question is from Timothy Arcuri, Smith Barney.

下一個問題來自史密斯巴尼公司的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

Actually I have 2 questions.

其實我有兩個問題。

The first question is I know that many investors view your results as a leading indicator for the cycle.

第一個問題是，我知道許多投資者將您的業績視為週期的領先指標。

And I know that you are obviously quite bearish on your chip makers or your customers, basically during the back half of the year.

我知道，你們顯然對你們的晶片製造商或你們的客戶非常看空，基本上是在今年下半年。

However, if you look at your orders relative to the industry, the industry went up a lot more off of the bottom than most other big tool levers.

然而，如果你看看相對於行業的訂單，你會發現該行業從底部的上升幅度比大多數其他大型工具槓桿要高得多。

So do you think that maybe you are seeing some capacity digestion that is specific to lithography that might not be broadly indicative?

那麼，您是否認為您可能看到了一些特定於光刻技術的產能消化，而這些產能消化可能並不具有廣泛的指標性？

Again, the 2 factors which make this analysis a bit complicated, one is that we overbooked last year.

同樣，有兩個因素使這一分析有點複雜，一是我們去年超額預訂了。

And that is a fact, a statement that the industry was a bit worried about not getting its share of capacities.

這是事實，顯示該行業有點擔心無法獲得其產能份額。

So the industry booked ahead.

因此業界提前預訂。

And we actually did a significant backlog.

我們實際上積壓了大量訂單。

So the fact that you don't get bookings is a natural.

因此，您沒有收到預訂是很自然的。

It's just a collection of your pre-bookings we're taking.

這只是我們所接受的您的預訂的集合。

So if life would -- if we'd all be smarter, we would have taken the backlog divided by 12 and it would have been much smoother reading.

因此，如果生活能夠——如果我們都變得更聰明的話，我們就會把待辦事項除以 12，那麼閱讀就會順暢得多。

So in other terms, our customers are getting the units that they expected in the first place.

因此，換句話說，我們的客戶首先獲得了他們期望的產品。

And in fact, if you see from our performance of delivery, we are doing a fairly good run.

事實上，如果你從我們的交付表現來看，我們的表現相當不錯。

In fact, it's still growing in some ways if you correct for cyclicality, since now 6 quarters.

事實上，如果你糾正週期性，自現在 6 個季度以來，它在某些方面仍在增長。

So we are very, very, very, very stable in the shipment part.

所以我們在出貨方面非常非常非常穩定。

What is driving this is the behavior of bookings.

推動這一趨勢的是預訂行為。

But, as I explained, you have behavior here of trying to reserve your capacity at the right time.

但是，正如我所解釋的，你在這裡的行為是試圖在正確的時間保留你的能力。

Now, having said that, to answer your question, the digestion effect.

現在，話雖如此，回答你的問題，消化作用。

We estimate it to be a creation of about 5 to 10% more capacity.

我們估計，容量將增加約 5% 至 10%。

That is what we are shipping today, what we have been shipping in the past 4 to 6 quarters creates an additional capacity at the level of 5 to 10.

這就是我們今天所運輸的產品，我們在過去 4 到 6 個季度中一直在運輸的產品創造了 5 到 10 個水平的額外產能。

So if you are thinking that the industry, semiconductor industry, is moving up by 5 to 10%, which is by the way not far from mid-term reality, the utilization rate is U-shaped.

因此，如果你認為半導體產業正在成長 5% 到 10%（順便說一句，這與中期現實相距不遠），那麼利用率就是 U 形的。

And if we do this utilization rate at this moment, depending on which statistic you take, in the 80 to 90% range.

如果我們此時計算利用率，則取決於您採用的統計數據，在 80% 到 90% 的範圍內。

So this is why the digestion effort is not that large.

所以這就是為什麼消化努力沒有那麼大的原因。

It does exist.

它確實存在。

It creates the U-shape.

它創建了 U 形。

But the fact that the U-shape is at a significant level, which therefore allows all the technology orders to happen, gives us the optimism that you have heard from us, which is not bad for a bad cycle.

但事實上，U 形處於顯著水平，因此允許所有技術訂單發生，這給了我們您從我們那裡聽到的樂觀情緒，這對於一個糟糕的周期來說並不是壞事。

Right.

正確的。

So certainly, because there were so many litho tools bought in 2003 and '04 relative to other tools in the fab, certainly I would expect that maybe your results are not so broadly indicative of the overall industry, certainly in the back half of the year.

當然，由於 2003 年和 04 年購買瞭如此多的光刻工具（相對於晶圓廠中的其他工具），我當然希望您的結果可能不能廣泛地反映整個行業，尤其是在今年下半年。

I guess maybe as a second question, I know you commented some on Memory and Foundry and Logic.

我想也許作為第二個問題，我知道您對內存、鑄造和邏輯發表了一些評論。

But can you give specific comments as to what your expectations are in Q2 and how does that [half of the year] by those 3 customer groups?

但您能否具體評論一下您對第二季的期望以及這 3 個客戶群的[半年]期望如何？

Yes.

是的。

I will start with the first one, which we are again -- which gives another reason of optimism.

我將從第一個開始，我們又是這個——這給了另一個樂觀的理由。

We are very happy with IDM.

我們對 IDM 非常滿意。

Very, very happy.

很高興。

We are making very good progress.

我們正在取得非常好的進展。

They are accreting orders.

他們正在增加訂單。

We are having some new orders from new customers in this environment.

在這種環境下，我們收到了一些來自新客戶的新訂單。

We are basically building market share and our older customers are coming back.

我們基本上正在建立市場份額，我們的老客戶正在回來。

So good news here.

這是個好消息。

The Foundry business, we know we are discussing at this moment conditions of taking the next orders.

鑄造業務，我們知道我們現在正在討論接受下一個訂單的條件。

So we know things are cooking, in the Foundry business outside of China.

所以我們知道中國以外的鑄造業務正在蓬勃發展。

Okay?

好的？

So I would guess, if you were to put my answer to you by level of optimism, this is exactly how I see it.

所以我猜，如果你按照樂觀程度來回答我的問題，我就是這麼看的。

IDM is excellent.

IDM 非常出色。

Foundry outside of China is the next coming.

下一個目標是中國以外的代工廠。

And then you have got a competition between Foundry in China and Memory business, which are the turnkey bits that at this moment, we don't read.

然後，中國的代工廠和記憶體業務之間存在競爭，這是目前我們不了解的交鑰匙部分。

Okay.

好的。

Next question is from Mark Fitzgerald, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬克·菲茨傑拉德。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Looking at your backlog situation, can you give us some idea what you'd expect for shipments for the year?

看看您的積壓情況，您能否告訴我們您對今年出貨量的預期？

Are we looking at down 15 to 20% on unit shipments?

我們的出貨量是否會下降 15% 至 20%？

I think, if I read your expectation of average analysts, what would I come up with? 190 units? 220?

我想，如果我讀到你對一般分析師的預期，我會得出什麼結論？ 190 單位？ 220？

That's basically 185 units.

基本上是 185 個單位。

So yes, we should be in the order of magnitude of, say, 200 to 220 total machines is an appropriate view of life.

所以，是的，我們的數量級應該是，比如說，總共 200 到 220 台機器是一個合適的生活觀。

And again, as I say, based on the idea that the waves are not coming back.

正如我所說，基於波浪不會回來的想法。

So if I make myself clear.

所以如果我說清楚的話。

So I will try to guide, not as a pessimistic view of life, but a conservative view of life, with a wait-and-see attitude about when the waves come back.

所以我會嘗試引導，不是悲觀的人生觀，而是保守的人生觀，以觀望的態度來看待波浪何時捲土重來。

I think I would like to refer back to what we said at the end of the fourth quarter, where we tried to give some kind of overview of what the analyst expectation was of industry growth for our customers.

我想我想回顧一下我們在第四季末所說的話，我們試圖對分析師對客戶產業成長的預期進行某種概述。

And that's what basically translated down to what we thought a worldwide market could be.

這基本上就是我們對全球市場的想像。

I don't know whether you remember that particular slide in the presentation where we said -- that translates into a wafer market of between 400 and 500 units.

我不知道您是否還記得簡報中我們所說的那張特定投影片——這意味著晶圓市場的數量在 400 到 500 單位之間。

That is what we said at the time.

我們當時就是這麼說的。

I think we still stand by that range.

我認為我們仍然堅持這個範圍。

And you could then say it could have been that you've shipped some to the lower end of that range and does that effectively mean that if you take 40/45% unit market share, you would be around -- and the [used] numbers that we have been reporting, you're in that area.

然後你可以說，你可能已經將一些產品運送到了該範圍的下限，這是否有效地意味著，如果你佔據 40/45% 的單位市場份額，你就會周圍 - 並且[二手]根據我們報告的數字，您就位於該區域。

That's just a measure.

這只是一個措施。

So in that sense, it's within that range that we have given as the possibility for the market.

所以從這個意義上來說，它就在我們所給的市場可能性範圍內。

And can I just test a thesis that it's [to you] bottom, because if you look, the global stock market seems to suggest the global economy is slowing here.

我可以測試一個論點，即它[對你來說]是底部，因為如果你看的話，全球股市似乎表明全球經濟正在放緩。

Things really deteriorate.

事情確實惡化了。

Historically, you guys will book at much lower levels than where we are bottoming out at this point.

從歷史上看，你們的預訂水平會比我們目前觸底的水平低得多。

So obviously, you are making some assumptions about the macro-picture out there.

顯然，您正在對宏觀情況做出一些假設。

And I'm curious if that's a downside risk you've not taken into consideration.

我很好奇這是否是您沒有考慮到的下行風險。

We are taking the assumption -- everything you heard today is based on semiconductor growth overall at about 5%.

我們假設—你們今天聽到的一切都是基於半導體整體成長率約為 5%。

I do not want to even think or talk about correlation between semiconductor and GDP.

我甚至不想思考或談論半導體與 GDP 之間的相關性。

I leave you with this one.

我把這個留給你。

At this moment, this is the best we can do.

此時此刻，這是我們能做的最好的事了。

Now if it's true, we will come back and apologize if the semiconductor industry goes down and then, of course, our assumption is that the U-curve remains the view for a longer time.

現在，如果這是真的，如果半導體產業下滑，我們會回來道歉，然後，當然，我們的假設是 U 曲線在更長的時間內仍然是這種觀點。

But at this point, 5% tells you why we are, I would say, reasonably optimistic.

但在這一點上，我認為 5% 可以告訴你為什麼我們相當樂觀。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Callers, we appreciate all your good questions, but if I could implore you to keep it to one, we'd really appreciate it for the rest of the scheduled time here.

各位來電者，我們感謝您提出的所有好問題，但如果我能懇求您只問一個問題，我們將非常感謝您在剩下的預定時間裡提出這個問題。

Then we can get more calls in.

然後我們就可以接到更多的電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. [Dominic Sakar], Moors & Cabot.

下一個問題來自 Moors & Cabot 的 [Dominic Sakar] 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Good morning.

早安.

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

If you could clarify once more, so your expectations of lithography units for 2005 is something close to below -- between 450 and 500.

如果您能再澄清一下，那麼您對 2005 年光刻機的預期接近於以下數字——在 450 到 500 之間。

And ASML's new unit expectation's around 180.

ASML的新單位預期在180左右。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

Did I read that right?

我沒讀錯嗎？

What we said is we went -- we referred back to the presentation that we put on the web at the end of Q4, where we gave our view of what the bandwidth was for the litho market in 2005.

我們所說的是——我們回顧了第四季度末在網上發布的演示，其中我們對 2005 年光刻市場的頻寬給出了我們的看法。

That was between 400 and 500 units.

那是在 400 到 500 單位之間。

And we said at that time that what at that time looked reasonable was about the mid point there.

我們當時就說過，當時看起來合理的大約是那裡的中點。

But you could argue that now we are somewhere between the bottom point and the mid point, and that's what I wanted to say.

但你可能會說，現在我們處於底部點和中間點之間，這就是我想說的。

And you know our unit market share, which is generally between 40 and 45%.

你也知道我們的單位市佔率一般在 40% 到 45% 之間。

So you can do the math.

所以你可以做數學計算。

Okay.

好的。

And all the other questions on Immersion side, what's the current expectations regarding what will be the ballpark units that you are looking for '05 ASML might be shipping, and maybe some hint into '06?

以及沉浸式方面的所有其他問題，對於您正在尋找的 '05 ASML 可能會發貨的大致設備的當前期望是什麼，也許還有一些關於 '06 的暗示？

That would be great.

那太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

In terms of Immersion, we are doing significant progress.

在沉浸感方面，我們正在取得重大進展。

As you know, we have already shipped 3 units.

如您所知，我們已經發貨了 3 台。

We booked, in fact, 2 units in Q1.

事實上，我們在第一季預訂了 2 個單位。

We have now 10 units about in backlog, waiting for shipment.

我們現在大約有 10 台積壓，等待發貨。

And these units will ship within Q2 and Q3.

這些設備將在第二季和第三季內出貨。

At this point mainly, we are waiting for [indiscernible].

現在主要是我們在等待[音訊不清晰]。

So we expect an acceleration of the bookings of Immersion in the Q3.

因此，我們預計第三季 Immersion 的預訂量將會加速。

In fact, no.

事實上，沒有。

End of Q2, beginning of Q3, in particular for the new machine, the Hyper-NA machine, which will be introduced in Q1 2006.

第二季末，第三季初，特別是新機器 Hyper-NA 機器，它將在 2006 年第一季推出。

I do not expect any significant volume of Immersion in 2005 for the sake of these machines being R&D machines, mainly not yet production machines.

我預計 2005 年 Immersion 的銷售不會很大，因為這些機器都是研發機器，主要還不是生產機器。

So it's a very normal technical development of a new process.

所以這是一個非常正常的新製程技術開發。

What about the Immersion unit in 2006?

2006 年的沉浸式課程怎麼樣？

Do you expect that to almost double, then, '05?

那麼，05 年您預計這一數字將幾乎翻倍嗎？

Oh yes, minimum.

哦，是的，最低限度。

You mean double than '05?

你的意思是比05年翻倍？

Yes.

是的。

If I just mention the 10-ish machines or 10, 12 machines in '05, we will do more than that in 2006.

如果我只提到 05 年的 10 台左右機器或 10、12 台機器，那麼我們在 2006 年會做得更多。

I think the Hydro-NA, the Immersion, will address the next tech -- the next technology node that cannot be done with systems that are currently dry.

我認為 Hydro-NA，即沉浸式技術，將解決下一個技術問題——目前乾燥系統無法完成的下一個技術節點。

So that means that if you have to go to that node to do the -- to do it wet.

所以這意味著如果你必須去那個節點做——濕地做。

It becomes immediately a volume.

它立即變成一卷。

You go from 2005, with R&D data.

你可以從 2005 年的研發數據開始。

And 2006 is the production data.

2006年是生產數據。

So you're talking serious volume.

所以你說的音量很大。

We've got to move on.

我們必須繼續前進。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Steven Collier, Fulcrum Global.

下一個問題來自 Fulcrum Global 的 Steven Collier 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

The next question, let's move onto the next question, Francois Meunier, Cazenove.

下一個問題，我們繼續下一個問題，Francois Meunier，Cazenove。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

I will have 1 question regarding the ASP of [indiscernible] tool, which has gone up [15 to 20] in Q1.

我有 1 個關於 [音訊不清晰] 工具的 ASP 的問題，該工具在第一季已上升 [15 至 20]。

Could you please explain what's going on with your [sales level] going forward?

您能否解釋一下您的[銷售水平]未來的情況如何？

Yes.

是的。

What you are seeing is a transition from used [stepper style] to used scanners.

您所看到的是從二手[步進式]到二手掃描器的轉變。

We saw that first changeover, we saw that happening in 2004.

我們看到了第一次轉變，我們看到它發生在 2004 年。

But now it is the new scanner market, especially 200 millimeter, is starting to develop.

但現在新的掃描器市場，尤其是200毫米的掃描器市場，正在開始發展。

And that going forward is going to be the trend.

未來這將成為趨勢。

So yes, I do expect that that higher ASP we're going to be seeing will be prolonged going forward.

所以，是的，我確實預計我們將看到更高的平均售價將持續下去。

Okay.

好的。

And could you explain what happened in services?

您能解釋一下服務業發生了什麼事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

What happened in services, service revenue was lower in Q1 largely because our customers didn't stop, but put a very significant lid on their option purchases.

服務業發生的情況，第一季的服務收入較低，很大程度上是因為我們的客戶沒有停止，而是大大限制了他們的選擇權購買。

So option sales, field option sales, went down significantly.

因此，選擇權銷售、現場選擇權銷售大幅下降。

That was the main driver.

那是主要的驅動力。

Another driver was that we saw throughout 2004, we saw significant movement of tools in customer fabs because customers were readjusting the layout of their fabs.

另一個驅動因素是我們在整個 2004 年看到，我們看到客戶晶圓廠中的工具發生了重大變化，因為客戶正在重新調整其晶圓廠的佈局。

That basically stopped in the first quarter of '05.

這種情況在 05 年第一季就基本停止了。

And I think it's a reflection of our customers -- the attempt of our customers to try to control costs.

我認為這是我們客戶的反映——我們的客戶試圖控製成本。

That's what we have seen.

這就是我們所看到的。

So it's been the incidental service revenue coming out of system movements, and the fact that they are have stopped buying service options, given the uncertainty that they are currently in.

因此，這是系統變動帶來的附帶服務收入，而且考慮到目前所處的不確定性，他們已經停止購買服務選項。

But why then was Mr. Meurice saying for €75m in Q2?

但為什麼 Meurice 先生在第二季提出 7500 萬歐元？

Has he?

他有嗎？

Yes, this morning during the conference call --

是的，今天早上在電話會議期間——

I think during the conference call he guided between 55 and 65.

我認為在電話會議期間他指導了 55 到 65 之間。

It may be my accent.

這可能是我的口音。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

The next question is from Didier Scemama, ABN Amro.

下一個問題來自荷蘭銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I just had a couple of questions.

我只是有幾個問題。

First question, can you just update us on lead times for 200 millimeter, where you are there compared to where you were?

第一個問題，您能否向我們介紹 200 毫米的交貨時間，與之前相比，您現在的情況如何？

Just trying to get a hand on the potential for substantial business in the back half of '05.

只是想在 05 年下半年抓住大量業務的潛力。

And the second question is regarding the backlog.

第二個問題是關於積壓的問題。

How confident you are that the current level of backlog from memory manufacturers has reached the bottom right now?

您對記憶體製造商目前的積壓程度已觸底有多大信心？

Is it likely that we'll revisit the sort of level that we had in '03 and early '04 in your opinion?

您認為我們是否有可能重新回到 03 年和 04 年初的水平？

Okay.

好的。

Regarding the lead times.

關於交貨時間。

For certain numbers of machines, we are planning lead times of 3 months or less in the second half.

對於某些數量的機器，我們計劃下半年的交貨時間為 3 個月或更短。

So to answer your question, we have enough optimism to plan for the possibility of a very, very quick turn in that U-shape.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我們有足夠的樂觀情緒來計劃 U 形出現非常非常快速的轉變的可能性。

So the way to get there has been to work on the cycle time, as I said, but also to take strategic decisions on which component you need to take.

因此，正如我所說，實現這一目標的方法是在週期時間上進行工作，但也要就您需要採用的組件做出策略決策。

And we make a bit of a bet about which machine is which, and of course this also comes through many discussions with customers.

我們對哪台機器是哪台機器做了一些打賭，當然這也是透過與客戶的多次討論得出的。

So, yes, 3 months' lead-time is seriously possible for us in 2005, and for H2.

所以，是的，對於我們 2005 年和下半年來說，3 個月的交貨時間是完全有可能的。

For your question on when is the Memory business going to kick in, you see, if you had asked me the question last week, I would have said let them digest and the questions will recur in Q3.

對於你關於記憶體業務何時開始啟動的問題，你看，如果你上週問我這個問題，我會說讓他們消化，這些問題將在第三季再次出現。

And then we are sure that in Q3 things will be discussed from the statistics we have, and this is why we guided that Q2 is not the right time.

然後我們確信，在第三季度，我們將根據我們掌握的統計數據來討論事情，這就是為什麼我們認為第二季度不是合適的時間。

But then I am wrong, because a week -- within a week we had a negotiation, as I just announced, that Memory -- a large company came back and requested a booking, like now, for a very, very short lead time.

但我錯了，因為一周之內我們進行了談判，正如我剛剛宣布的那樣，一家大公司回來要求預訂，就像現在一樣，交貨時間非常非常短。

So, uncertainty.

所以，不確定性。

Unknown.

未知。

Okay.

好的。

So if I just summarize, you said around 2 -- sorry, 6 months for TWINSCAN, around 3 months for [indiscernible], and with regards to Memory you don't know, but people are coming and putting orders.

所以如果我簡單總結一下，你說大約 2 個月——抱歉，TWINSCAN 大約 6 個月，[音頻不清晰] 大約 3 個月，關於內存你不知道，但人們正在過來下訂單。

If I just ask your opinion with regard to current business into 3Q and 4Q, what would you say?

如果我問你對目前第三季和第四季業務的看法，你會怎麼說？

Oh, I think we're preparing ourselves for that.

哦，我想我們正在為此做好準備。

So you can have minimum 10 used machines and potentially another 10 to 15 new, which can be turned extremely quickly.

因此，您至少可以擁有 10 台二手機器，還可能有 10 到 15 台新機器，這些機器的周轉速度非常快。

Perfect, thanks.

很好，謝謝。

Next question is from Peter Testa, One Investments.

下一個問題來自 One Investments 的 Peter Testa。

Go ahead please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Yes.

是的。

If I could ask, on Japan, the extent to which you can give some feeling, further feeling, on how your position is developing in Japan?

如果我可以問一下，關於日本，您能在多大程度上對您的立場在日本的發展情況發表一些感受，進一步的感受？

You mention new customers in IDM, I was wondering whether that's reflecting success in Japan, and maybe help us understand at what point you would expect to see a volume of orders in Japan reflecting the market potential as opposed to an interesting but quite low volume now.

您提到 IDM 的新客戶，我想知道這是否反映了日本的成功，也許可以幫助我們了解您期望在什麼時候看到日本的訂單量反映市場潛力，而不是現在有趣但相當低的數量。

Yes.

是的。

I like your question because it's part of the areas we want to underline to you.

我喜歡你的問題，因為這是我們想向你強調的領域的一部分。

Of course, there is a storm out there in the way that we are not in an exciting part of the cycle.

當然，外面有一場風暴，但我們並不處於週期中令人興奮的部分。

But the Company is executing on very, very important aspects.

但公司正在非常非常重要的方面執行。

We spent a lot of time on the cost restructure, on the cycle time, which was fundamental.

我們在成本重組和週期時間上花費了大量時間，這是至關重要的。

On the market share, we are doing a not superficial improvement.

在市場佔有率上，我們正​​在做不表面的提升。

And Japan is the example of these 2, in which we are building up, I would say, the long-term entry.

日本就是這兩個國家的例子，我想說，我們正在其中建立長期進入。

And this can be in Q1, summarized by 2 factual successes.

這可以在第一季度透過 2 個事實成功來總結。

One is, we've passed now well above 50% there in at least one of our very large current customers.

一是，我們現在至少在我們現有的一個非常大的客戶中已經超過了 50%。

And that's a very significant message in Japan, where a customer would give us the credibility necessary to become [a partner].

這在日本是一個非常重要的訊息，客戶會給我們成為[合作夥伴]所需的信譽。

The second part of the story is in addition to that we are making such inroads, and I can clearly define 3 customers as very near public, I would say, evaluation phase.

故事的第二部分是除了我們正在取得的進展之外，我可以明確地將 3 個客戶定義為非常接近公開的，我想說的是，評估階段。

So it is my hope that you'll be putting a name to 1 or 2 or 3 of them by the end of the quarter.

因此，我希望您能在本季末之前為其中的 1、2 或 3 個給出名字。

As you know, a piece of that is we need to confirm these evaluations and design wins.

如您所知，其中一部分是我們需要確認這些評估和設計勝利。

Part of this is we also need to have them make it public.

部分原因是我們還需要讓他們公開。

Some of you may have already heard one of them made it public, but I don't think I've heard that they have made it public on their own.

你們中的一些人可能已經聽說過其中一位將其公開，但我想我還沒有聽說他們自己公開過。

So we are very, very satisfied about the level of interest, and very, very satisfied about, more than the interest, the amount of work that these additional 3 customers are asking us to invest, to, I would say, conclude.

因此，我們對興趣程度非常非常滿意，而且非常非常滿意，不僅僅是興趣，這另外 3 個客戶要求我們投資的工作量，我想說，得出結論。

If I can ask, just to get perspective on that, if you were successful, let's say, with the 1, 2 or 3 customers, can you give some sort of sense as to the proportion of the market that you would be servicing?

如果我可以問一下，只是為了了解這一點，如果您成功了，比如說，擁有 1、2 或 3 個客戶，您能否對您將服務的市場比例給出某種解釋？

I don't mean your market share, but the proportion of market share represented by these -- this sort of customer base.

我指的不是你的市場份額，而是這些客戶群所代表的市場份額的比例。

I would have to guess, but it's all the big ones.

我只好猜測，但都是大事。

Fine.

美好的。

You [think you're talking to] X and then figure out who has not got enough to test a TWINSCAN.

你[認為你正在與]X交談，然後找出誰沒有足夠的錢來測試雙胞胎掃描。

Okay.

好的。

And this relates to new technology, and margin, and so on?

這牽涉到新技術、利潤率等等嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question is from Andrew Griffin, Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林證券的安德魯·格里芬。

Hi there.

你好呀。

I've just got a question about whether you had any cancellations in the course, and whether there's any material differences [indiscernible] orders.

我剛剛有一個問題，關於您的課程是否有任何取消，以及訂單是否存在任何重大差異[音頻不清晰]。

And I guess the other question is, just on that subject, it seemed from the data you gave that the R&D portion of your backlog, which I know is a tiny portion, but it fell.

我想另一個問題是，就這個主題而言，從您提供的數據來看，您的積壓訂單中的研發部分，我知道只是一小部分，但它下降了。

But I didn't see any R&D sales when you split up the value of your sales by end customer.

但當你按最終客戶劃分銷售價值時，我沒有看到任何研發銷售。

And I just wondered whether you just didn't disclose the R&D sales, or whether there was a change there.

我只是想知道你們是否只是沒有披露研發銷售額，或者是否有變化。

Yes.

是的。

I think it's not [indiscernible], it's probably within the 2-ish percent, and we loaded it into the IDM.

我認為這不是[無法辨別]，它可能在百分之二左右的範圍內，我們將其加載到 IDM 中。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

It's a very long number.

這是一個很長的數字。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

And there were no cancellations there.

那裡沒有取消。

Okay, good.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question is from Mr. Lizbec(ph), Rabo Securities.

下一個問題來自 Rabo 證券公司的 Lizbec(ph) 先生。

Good afternoon [audible] Rabo Securities.

下午好[音訊] Rabo 證券。

I've got a question about the R&D budget.

我有一個關於研發預算的問題。

You mentioned [inaudible] if and by how much the [inaudible]?

您提到[聽不清楚]是否以及[聽不清楚]有多少？

I think the question was asked last quarter, and we basically said, first is first.

我認為這個問題是上個季度提出的，我們基本上是說，第一就是第一。

Which is gaining a decision on the LCD market, and that decision is going to be pending negotiations with customers, so that we get commitments and significant pre-funding.

該公司正在 LCD 市場做出決定，該決定將等待與客戶的談判，以便我們獲得承諾和大量的預先資金。

So depending on the significant pre-funding in question, and the level of commitments and the request for schedule and speed, you're -- the number in question would be different.

因此，根據所涉及的大量預先資金、承諾水平以及對時間表和速度的要求，所涉及的數字會有所不同。

We say, however, that that number will be not dilutive to our target of 15% [indiscernible].

然而，我們說這個數字不會稀釋我們 15% 的目標[音訊不清晰]。

And at this very moment, we can't really comment further on that level.

此時此刻，我們無法在這個層面上進一步發表評論。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Jonathan Dutton, UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬納森·達頓。

Go ahead please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Next -- in the next couple of years, [inaudible] free cash flow.

接下來—在接下來的幾年裡，[聽不清楚]自由現金流。

I wondered if you could let us know you're your priorities are for that cash flow, whether it's dividend payout or strategic [acts].

我想知道您能否讓我們知道您的首要任務是現金流，無論是股息支付還是策略[行為]。

If it's the latter, in what particular fields [inaudible].

如果是後者，在哪些特定領域[聽不清楚]。

You were extremely difficult to hear, but I understand you say, what do we want to do with our flush cash.

你的聲音很難聽，但我明白你說的是，我們想用我們的現金做什麼。

And I think my predecessor once said, buying a whole bunch of [aircraft].

我想我的前任曾經說過，買一大堆[飛機]。

But I'm reversing his decision.

但我要推翻他的決定。

Clearly, there are 2 answers to that.

顯然，有兩個答案。

One, we would like to bring our cash level to what we think is a state of the art, or what our -- basically our peers in the market are getting to, as a percentage of total assets or percentage of sales or whatever.

第一，我們希望將我們的現金水平提高到我們認為最先進的水平，或者我們基本上是我們市場上的同行所達到的水平，即佔總資產的百分比或銷售額的百分比或其他什麼。

To be sure that we are able to weather the different cycles and be of -- have enough cash available for the appropriate small merger and acquisition, etc.

確保我們能夠經受住不同的週期，並有足夠的現金用於適當的小型併購等。

Things that we may have to execute.

我們可能必須執行的事情。

And we believe that that number is towards the €2b gross, which is €1.2b net, roughly.

我們相信這個數字接近 20 億歐元的總收入，即淨額約 1.2 億歐元。

We currently always look at the net cash balance, we have about €800m.

目前我們總是關注淨現金餘額，我們大約有 8 億歐元。

On the balance sheet slightly more, €850m, which is our long-term debt.

資產負債表上略多一點，8.5億歐元，這是我們的長期債務。

So our net cash balance is roughly €0.5b right now, so there's still some -- but you are right, we are generating free cash flow that will add to the cash balance.

所以我們現在的淨現金餘額約為 0.5b 歐元，所以還有一些 - 但你是對的，我們正在產生自由現金流，這將增加現金餘額。

And what Eric said, we feel comfortable with a cash balance of around €1b or €1.2b to support us in our organic growth.

正如艾瑞克所說，我們對 10 億歐元或 1.2 歐元左右的現金餘額感到滿意，以支持我們的有機成長。

But also, to make sure that we have sufficient cash to one, weather the cycles, and also to do, when we need to, to do smaller type acquisitions, or M&A type of work, which by the way, we currently have nothing specific on the radar screen.

而且，為了確保我們有足夠的現金來應對週期，並且在需要時進行小型收購或併購類型的工作，順便說一句，我們目前沒有任何具體的措施在雷達屏幕上。

But it is clear that we know it is our duty to - if we don't have something else to do with cash - to give it back to the shareholders.

但很明顯，我們知道，如果我們沒有其他與現金有關的事情，我們有責任將其退還給股東。

So that is very, very clear.

所以這非常非常清楚。

The -- I would say I can -- we will have some consultation at some point, when the time is due, to find out the right programs and processes to do this.

我想說我可以，我們將在某個時候、時機成熟時進行一些磋商，以找出實現這一目標的正確計劃和流程。

Yes, there is a bit of a bias on our side, because we are in a high-tech environment, to bring that money back through structured share buyback systems.

是的，我們這邊有一點偏見，因為我們處於高科技環境中，透過結構化股票回購系統將資金收回。

That's 1 alternative, and we're going to look at the different alternatives at the right moment.

這是一種選擇，我們將在適當的時候考慮不同的選擇。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. [Dep Badar], Bramwell Capital Management.

下一個問題來自 Bramwell Capital Management 的 [Dep Badar] 先生。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

The one about the cancellation was answered, but I still can't figure it out.

關於取消的問題已得到答复，但我仍然無法弄清楚。

Last quarter you had a backlog of 119 new systems.

上季您積壓了 119 個新系統。

This quarter you shipped in new systems of 50, and the order was 35.

本季您交付了 50 個新系統，訂單數量為 35 個。

That adds up to about 104, so you have a backlog of 92 systems, new systems.

加起來大約是 104 個，因此積壓了 92 個系統，即新系統。

Could you just try to compute that, please, for me?

請你幫我計算一下好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We had -- at the end of Q4 we had 131 systems consisting of 119 new and 12 used, so that's 131.

截至第四季末，我們有 131 個系統，其中 119 個是新系統，12 個是舊系統，所以總數是 131 個。

We've booked 35 systems in total, of which 23 new and 12 used.

我們總共預訂了 35 套系統，其中 23 套是新的，12 套是二手的。

We shipped 50 new and 9 used.

我們運送了 50 個新的和 9 個二手的。

That means you do 131 plus 35, minus 59, is 107. 107 is the end of the quarter, consisting of 92 new and 15 used.

這意味著您做 131 加 35，減去 59，就是 107。107 是季度末，包括 92 個新的和 15 個已用的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

One more on your customers.

再談一談您的客戶。

What are the -- what is the outlook for them in terms of the in-market demand, in terms of the Memory or the foundries.

他們的市場需求、記憶體或代工廠的前景如何。

You did mention about the utilization rates stabilizing.

您確實提到了利用率的穩定性。

Do they see that picking up somewhere in the third or the fourth quarter, or are they saying that this improvement is likely to be really gradual?

他們是否認為這種情況會在第三季或第四季有所回升，或者他們是否表示這種改善可能是真正漸進的？

We all heard positive signals.

我們都聽到了正面的訊號。

There's nobody with negative signals.

沒有人發出負面訊號。

You hear that the mobile business, mobile phone business is back, you hear that the guys doing Memory for mobile phone business are happy.

你聽說行動業務、手機業務回來了，你聽說做手機內存業務的人很高興。

You hear that people working for Apple computers are very happy.

你聽說為蘋果電腦工作的人非常高興。

You hear that people working for Sony Playstation are very happy.

你聽說為索尼 Playstation 工作的人非常高興。

So we hear a whole bunch of happy fellows.

所以我們聽到一大群快樂的人。

Okay.

好的。

So that means they'll be placing orders on you, and then you will continue to grow, particularly in the third and the fourth quarters?

這意味著他們會向你下訂單，然後你會繼續成長，特別是在第三和第四季？

Yes.

是的。

The only negative we hear is on pressure, price pressure on Flash, and of course -- not even price pressure on [indiscernible], but [we need] price pressure on Flash.

我們聽到的唯一負面消息是壓力，Flash 的價格壓力，當然，甚至不是 [音頻不清晰] 的價格壓力，但 [我們需要] Flash 的價格壓力。

This would be the only negative stuff that we get.

這將是我們得到的唯一負面的東西。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Next question is from Ali Irani, CIBC World Markets.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 全球行銷部門的 Ali Irish。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Yes.

是的。

Good morning, thank you.

早安，謝謝。

I'm hoping you could discuss the value of the bookings in the second quarter.

我希望您能討論第二季的預訂價值。

I know we're focused here on the units maybe being a down quarter, but given the mix migrations and your product portfolio, would you expect the value of your second quarter bookings could possibly be flat or even up?

我知道我們關注的焦點可能是季度下降的單位，但考慮到混合遷移和您的產品組合，您是否預計第二季的預訂價值可能持平甚至上升？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I will try to avoid answering.

我會盡量避免回答。

We're trying to guide a bit more than we ever did, and I hope you all appreciate that we get out of -- a bit more than take a risk on our own credibility, and please respect [the fact that].

我們正在努力比以往更多地提供指導，我希望你們都理解我們所擺脫的東西——不僅僅是拿我們自己的信譽冒險，並請尊重[事實]。

It's a bit difficult in such an industry.

在這樣的行業有點難。

So trying to guess the bookings of Q2, form and mix and price, is - you're asking too much.

因此，試著猜測第二季的預訂量、形式、組合和價格，是——你要求太多了。

Let me try to reformulate the question, then.

那麼讓我試著重新表達這個問題。

When you look at -- you mentioned some of the AT 1400 platforms being a more significant part in your Immersion business, picking up late in the second quarter, or in the [third quarter] bookings.

當您查看時，您提到一些 AT 1400 平台在您的 Immersion 業務中發揮更重要的作用，在第二季度末或[第三季度]預訂量有所增加。

When you look at the mix of the customers that are booking right now, including, you mentioned IDMs, those are clearly investing in 90 nanometer or 65 nanometer pilots.

當您查看現在預訂的客戶組合（包括您提到的 IDM）時，您會發現這些客戶顯然正在投資 90 奈米或 65 奈米試點。

And the Foundry comeback in activity would clearly only be at the 90 nanometer node.

Foundry 的回歸顯然只會在 90 奈米節點上進行。

So by definition, wouldn't that imply a richer mix in bookings in the second quarter than in the first?

因此，根據定義，這是否意味著第二季的預訂組合比第一季更豐富？

I think you should work for us, and we will put you into the marketing and forecast department.

我認為你應該為我們工作，我們會將你安排到行銷和預測部門。

You may be correct.

你可能是對的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question is from Mr. Menon, Dresdner.

下一個問題來自德勒斯登的梅農先生。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Yes. 2 quick questions from me.

是的。我簡單問了兩個問題。

One is, the new orders, the [indiscernible] of the new orders you picked up in Q1 is down quite sharply from Q4, when you were above €17m in Q4 and you're down to about €11.7m in Q1.

一個是新訂單，您在第一季獲得的新訂單[音訊不清晰]比第四季度大幅下降，當時第四季度的訂單金額超過 1700 萬歐元，而第一季則降至約 1170 萬歐元。

Is that because you took in a lot of 1400s in Q4, and you didn't take in so many 1400s in Q1, or is there any other factor there?

是因為你在第四季吸收了很多1400，而在第一季沒有吸收那麼多1400，還是還有其他因素？

It's quite a sizeable drop.

這是一個相當大的下降。

In fact, if you look at just the numbers, 35 units total with 12 used, you probably already have the answer.

事實上，如果您只看數字，總共 35 個單元，其中 12 個已使用，您可能已經有了答案。

No, I'm talking about new orders.

不，我說的是新訂單。

Oh, it is the new orders?

哦，是新訂單嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yes, the new orders.

是的，新訂單。

Same thing.

一樣。

Again, 1400 is a long lead-time item, and we booked a long time ago.

再說一遍，1400 是一個交貨時間較長的商品，而且我們很早就預訂了。

So, it's natural.

所以，這是很自然的。

You didn't take in many 1400 orders in Q1 then?

那麼第一季1400個訂單你沒有接很多嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

That is correct.

那是對的。

It is a mix issue.

這是一個混合問題。

Okay.

好的。

And, just -- you addressed that quite a number of times, that the U-shaped upside and the wave of orders, stuff like that.

而且，您多次提到 U 形上漲和訂單浪潮之類的問題。

I was just wondering, do you have any reason to believe that that is going to be a second half '05 phenomenon, or is it that it could be an '06 or '07 upturn?

我只是想知道，您是否有任何理由相信這將是 05 年下半年的現象，或者可能是 06 年或 07 年的好轉？

Again, no idea.

再說一遍，不知道。

We -- in Q1 -- in Q4, I told you what we knew and what was uncertain, and I come up with the same message here.

我們在第一季度和第四季度，我告訴了你們我們所知道的和不確定的，我在這裡提出了同樣的訊息。

It's not pessimism, it's not optimism.

這不是悲觀主義，也不是樂觀主義。

It's absolutely uncertain.

這是絕對不確定的。

And last one, if I may, is can you give us what your new breakeven number will be for the shipments?

最後一個問題，如果可以的話，您能否告訴我們您的新出貨損益平衡數字是多少？

Are you willing to give out that number?

你願意透露這個號碼嗎？

Lower than 130.

低於130。

Okay --

好的 -

No, in fact, I can do a bit more, okay?

不，其實我還可以多做一點，好嗎？

And again, I'm a risk-taker, as you can imagine.

再說一次，正如你可以想像的那樣，我是一個敢於冒險的人。

I can say it's 130 divided by 4, if you understand my point?

我可以說是 130 除以 4，你懂我的意思嗎？

We are getting better at executing the breakeven on short notice.

我們在短時間內實現損益平衡方面做得越來越好。

Okay.

好的。

So, in other terms, we feel more comfortable about our variability.

因此，換句話說，我們對自己的可變性感到更加自在。

You're not saying that your breakeven is going from 130 to 35 to --?

你不是說你的損益平衡點將從 130 增加到 35 到——？

Oh, please, don't push me, except a long time from now.

噢，請不要催我，除非是很長一段時間。

Alright.

好吧。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question is from Mr. Pelzer, Lehman Brothers.

下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的 Pelzer 先生。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Yes, guys, just 2 quick ones.

是的，夥計們，只有兩個快點。

The order intake in Q2, coming back to an earlier question, down Q on Q for the new units also - is that what you were trying to say?

第二季的訂單量，回到先前的問題，新設備的訂單量也逐一下降——這就是您想說的嗎？

Down total new units?

新單位總數減少？

Total down, but new might in fact be up, Q on Q.

整體下降，但新的實際上可能會上升，Q 接 Q。

It could be.

它可能是。

Okay.

好的。

And then just another 1 on the gross margin.

然後毛利率又增加了 1。

If I run the numbers, it looks as though your sales overall are going to be up, Q on Q, yet you're guiding the gross margin down, if we take the midpoint.

如果我計算一下這些數字，看起來你的整體銷售額將會逐季度上升，但如果我們取中點，你會導致毛利率下降。

Why would that be?

為什麼會這樣呢？

Is that because XT 1400 is a new product, where perhaps there's a learning curve effect there, or what other reason might there be?

是因為XT 1400是新產品，可能存在學習曲線效應，還是還有其他原因？

In particular, considering that there's an ongoing TWINSCAN cost reduction program?

特別是考慮到正在進行的 TWINSCAN 成本削減計劃？

Only that if you go back 1 quarter, we guided the gross margin for the first half of '05 between 30 and 40%, which of course included the first quarter, we did 40%.

只是如果你回顧 1 個季度，我們將 05 年上半年的毛利率指引在 30% 到 40% 之間，當然包括第一季度，我們做到了 40%。

That doesn't say that we won't do 40% in the second half, but we are focusing on the cost reduction program, just like you say, and we are executing on it.

這並不是說我們下半年不會做到40%，但我們正專注於成本削減計劃，就像你說的那樣，我們正在執行它。

And it's also a little bit of the mix of the products that we are selling in that quarter.

這也是我們在該季度銷售的產品的一部分。

And you are right; if we sell more new products that might have 1 or 2 percentage points lower gross margin.

你是對的；如果我們銷售更多新產品，毛利率可能會降低 1 或 2 個百分點。

So it's really dependent on the mix.

所以這實際上取決於混合。

That's why we feel comfortable with the guidance that we gave a quarter ago, to keep that guidance up and let the quarters decide, and the ultimate shipments and the shipments mix decides where the gross margin will end up.

這就是為什麼我們對一個季度前給予的指引感到滿意，保持該指引並讓季度決定，最終的出貨量和出貨量組合決定毛利率的最終結果。

But it will be in that range.

但它會在這個範圍內。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question is from Mr. Brenier, SG Securities.

下一個問題是來自法國興業證券的 Brenier 先生。

Go ahead, please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

I was wondering where the growth in the inventories is coming from, when from raw materials these products are work in progress.

我想知道庫存的成長來自哪裡，這些產品何時從原料中生產出來。

And given the cost scenario that you're showing for this year, are you concerned with this kind of level, or could we expect with this scenario again inventories going down?

考慮到您今年展示的成本情景，您是否擔心這種水平，或者我們是否可以預期在這種情況下庫存會再次下降？

No.

不。

The additional inventory that we have is work in progress, and this is due to the fact that we are preparing for a significant Q2.

我們擁有的額外庫存正在進行中，這是因為我們正在為重要的第二季做準備。

But in numbers of turns, that is the numbers of days of future sales, we are continuously improving.

但就週轉數而言，也就是未來銷售的天數，我們正在不斷改進。

And this is the key part, the key initiative.

這是關鍵部分、關鍵舉措。

We will improve our cash cycles in our [indiscernible].

我們將改善[音訊不清晰]中的現金週期。

Now, sometimes we don't see it because, as I say, when you have a very high future quarter, you are going to have, because we have long lead times, higher WIP.

現在，有時我們看不到這一點，因為正如我所說，當未來季度的業績非常高時，由於我們的交貨時間很長，您將擁有更高的在製品。

And therefore, if you divide the turns by [indiscernible], you may have some ratios which does not go the right direction.

因此，如果將匝數除以[音訊不清晰]，則可能會得到一些不正確方向的比率。

But in terms of technical turns, based on the right measure, we are committed to improving the cash cycle.

但在技術轉向方面，基於正確的措施，我們致力於改善現金週期。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Operator, we have time for 1 more call.

接線生，我們還有時間再打 1 通電話。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Mr. Orji, JP Morgan, go ahead please, sir.

摩根大通的 Orji 先生，請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Just 2 questions.

只有 2 個問題。

The first is, I understand you had no cancellations for the quarter, but do you mind just walking us through the linearity of the quarter?

首先，我知道您本季沒有取消訂單，但您介意向我們介紹本季的線性情況嗎？

So, how did the orders that you generated [indiscernible] your clients' sentiments through the quarter?

那麼，整個季度您產生的訂單[無法辨別]您的客戶情緒如何？

And the second question is about your R&D.

第二個問題是關於你們的研發。

Is this new level of R&D going to be the new levels used by models going forward, or will it tend to calm down after you've [indiscernible] the new mid-range [Canon] products?

這種新的研發水平是否會成為未來型號使用的新水平，或者在你[音頻不清晰]新的中檔[佳能]產品之後它會趨於平靜？

Regarding the profile of order entry, as I said, January was not a good month but it's not supposed to be a good month.

關於訂單輸入情況，正如我所說，一月份不是一個好月份，但也不應該是一個好月份。

It's the year start, so not particularly significant.

現在是年初，所以不是特別重要。

February was average-ish, okay?

二月是平均水平，好嗎？

And we had, as I think we made it clear, quite a lot of activity, negotiations.

正如我認為我們已經明確表示的那樣，我們進行了大量的活動和談判。

I think this is common in March, and March didn't come as high again, particularly because of these X orders, which spilled into April.

我認為這在 3 月很常見，而且 3 月並沒有再次達到如此高的水平，特別是因為這些 X 訂單蔓延到了 4 月。

And because our Memory friends didn't come up at the level we wanted, and because the Foundry didn't pop up.

因為我們的記憶朋友沒有達到我們想要的水平，而且因為鑄造廠沒有出現。

So, in other terms, February okay, but nothing exciting.

所以，換句話說，二月還可以，但沒什麼令人興奮的。

And March was not [inaudible].

而三月則不是[聽不清楚]。

Right.

正確的。

Could you just quantify how much of the orders have spilled into the next quarter from March?

您能否量化一下從 3 月開始有多少訂單溢出到了下一個季度？

A handful - how many fingers do you have?

一把——你有幾根手指？

I can invent some more.

我還可以發明更多。

And regarding your R&D question.

關於你的研發問題。

Again, it's one of those things.

再說一遍，這是其中之一。

I'm happy with this question because it allows me to re-emphasize the fact that in spite of the cautious note that we've put to the outlook, we have a pretty aggressive vision of performance here - market share, sales, etc., and investment.

我對這個問題很滿意，因為它讓我能夠再次強調這樣一個事實：儘管我們對前景持謹慎態度，但我們對這裡的業績——市場份額、銷售額等——有著相當激進的願景。和投資。

We are investing more in R&D, and we are going to sustain this provision of investment, and this investment is good.

我們正在加大研發投入，我們將維持這種投資，這種投資是好的。

So that will accelerate our development in the mid range, and will accelerate the introduction of our new machines [at the height].

因此，這將加速我們在中端的發展，並將加速我們新機器的推出（在高階）。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Thank you, gentlemen.

謝謝你們，先生們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML first quarter 2005 conference call.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2005 年第一季電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect now.

您現在可以斷開連線。