艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the ASML fourth quarter 2004 results and annual results [inaudible] January 19 2005. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

感謝您的耐心等待並歡迎閱讀 ASML 2004 年第四季業績和年度業績[聽不清楚]2005 年 1 月 19 日。[操作員說明]。

I would now like to turn the call over to the Mr. Craig DeYoung.

我現在想把電話轉給克雷格·德揚先生。

Mr. DeYoung, go ahead please.

德揚先生，請繼續。

Welcome everyone.

歡迎大家。

And thank you for joining the call.

感謝您加入此通話。

Before we begin I would like to introduce ASML's participants in the call today.

在我們開始之前，我想介紹一下今天電話會議中 ASML 的參與者。

Joining us are ASML's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Eric Meurice.

加入我們的還有 ASML 總裁兼執行長 Eric Meurice 先生。

We are joined also by our Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Peter Wennink.

我們的財務長 Peter Wennink 先生也加入了我們的行列。

I would like to remind you of today's protocol for the call.

我想提醒您今天的通話協議。

The call will last 1 hour.

通話將持續 1 小時。

We ask that you confine your questions to 1 with 1 small follow-up if necessary.

我們要求您將問題限制為 1 個，並在必要時進行 1 次小型跟進。

We will be strict on this issue in fairness to others.

我們會嚴格看待這個問題，公平對待他人。

Having said that, let me remind you that the matters discussed in this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, economic conditions, product demand, semiconductor industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the principle product of our customer base, competitive products and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new product developments, ability to enforce patents, the outcome of intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trading environment and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML's annual report on form 20-F and other filings with the U.S.

話雖如此，請容我提醒您，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，包括但不限於經濟狀況、產品需求、半導體產業產能、全球需求和製造半導體產能利用率、我們客戶群的主要產品、有競爭力的產品和定價、製造效率、新產品開發、專利執行能力、智慧財產權訴訟結果、原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性、貿易環境等ASML 20 -F 表格年度報告和其他向美國提交的文件中包含的風險因素中指出的風險

Securities and Exchange Commission.

證券交易委員會。

I would first like to turn the call over to Eric for a brief introductory statement.

我首先想把電話轉給艾瑞克，讓他做一個簡短的介紹發言。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you Craig.

謝謝你克雷格。

Thank you to everybody for attending the call.

感謝大家參加電話會議。

You have all received potentially the different documents, press release and the document attached.

你們都可能收到了不同的文件、新聞稿和所附文件。

So I will be very brief in summarizing the different messages that we would like to share with you.

因此，我將非常簡短地總結我們想與您分享的不同資訊。

First is Q4 was a good quarter in terms of financial performance.

首先，第四季的財務業績表現良好。

Growth was 29% quarter to quarter, 60% versus last year.

季度環比成長 29%，與去年相比成長 60%。

And net income at the level of 13.8%, with an operating income at 23%.

淨利為 13.8%，營業收入為 23%。

These are significant performances.

這些都是重要的表演。

You add this into a picture.

您將其添加到圖片中。

The picture is one of continuous improvement from Q4 2003 to Q1, to Q2, to Q3 to Q4 2004.

這張圖是從 2003 年第 4 季到第 1 季、第 2 季、第 3 季到 2004 年第 4 季持續改善的情況。

A nice trend, concluding 2004 on a very good financial performance on most of the areas of execution, growth, profitability and liquidity.

這是一個很好的趨勢，2004 年在執行、成長、獲利能力和流動性的大部分領域都取得了非常好的財務表現。

And I think we will be happy to answer any of your questions on the subject.

我認為我們很樂意回答您有關該主題的任何問題。

Regarding the outlook, I think I would like to draw your attention to, in fact, slide 28 of the presentation, which we have forwarded, was 3 very, very simple messages.

關於前景，我想我想提請大家注意，事實上，我們轉發的簡報的第 28 張投影片是 3 條非常非常簡單的訊息。

1 is we are clearly in one of those semiconductor cycles downward trend.

1 是我們顯然處於半導體週期下降趨勢之一。

And all the statistics show that we are still in this correction, although that correction may be short-lived or small in impact in view of the level of inventory which the industry has accumulated, which seems to be at now historical levels.

所有統計數據都表明，我們仍處於這次調整中，儘管鑑於該行業積累的庫存水平（目前似乎處於歷史水平），這種調整可能是短暫的或影響很小。

So again, the market is not positive.

話又說回來，市場並不樂觀。

But, on the other hand, the sales corrections seems to have now been concluded.

但另一方面，銷售調整似乎已經結束。

In this environment, it is a very good thing that ASML has performed in Q4 with such good numbers, which proves the capability of ASML to adapt to difficult environments.

在這樣的環境下，ASML在第四季取得如此好的成績是一件非常好的事情，這證明了ASML適應困難環境的能力。

And proves, or shows, the impact on the different execution projects regarding cost and regarding cash cycle, which have been put in place some time ago and which is yielding nicely.

並證明或顯示對不同執行專案在成本和現金週期方面的影響，這些專案在一段時間前就已經實施並且產生了良好的效果。

Looking at 2005, we have -- we start the year with a significant backlog.

展望 2005 年，我們在年初就積壓了大量訂單。

A significant backlog in 2 facets.

兩方面的積壓嚴重。

First is it is large.

首先是規模大。

About €1.7b of backlog. 80% of it shippable in the first 6 months of the year.

約 1.7b 歐元的積壓。其中 80% 可在今年前 6 個月內出貨。

And for a company of our size, about €2.5b in 2004, having a backlog, 80% of which is shippable in 6 months at €1.7b, is a good number.

對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，2004 年大約有 2.5 億歐元，有積壓訂單，其中 80% 可以在 6 個月內以 1.7 億歐元的價格發貨，這是一個不錯的數字。

The second facet, which is very important on that backlog is that this backlog is extremely skewed forward technology and advanced machines, which plays in our forte.

第二個方面，對於積壓訂單非常重要，因為這個積壓訂單非常偏向於尖端技術和先進機器，而這正是我們的強項。

And which is also a reflection of the current weak semiconductor situation.

而這也是當前半導體疲軟情勢的反映。

In order terms, we have booked the technology transitions.

從訂單方面來看，我們已經預訂了技術轉換。

And on this, the volume is significant.

在這方面，數量是巨大的。

And the dollars and euro amount appropriate.

並且美元和歐元金額適當。

It is, at this point, true that we haven't yet booked the capacity demand.

確實，目前我們還沒有預訂產能需求。

And that this capacity demand remains uncertain.

而且這種產能需求仍不確定。

And therefore the conclusion, in fact, of our message is that at this very moment we see a strong position by ASML in which that -- in the fact that we have booked significantly due to this technology transition.

因此，事實上，我們的訊息的結論是，此時此刻，我們看到了 ASML 的強勢地位，事實上，由於這種技術轉型，我們已經預訂了大量訂單。

That we have executed in 2004 and have proven P&L parameters, which will deliver, or have delivered and will deliver profitability and liquidity on the level of €1.7b.

我們已於 2004 年執行並已證實損益參數，這些參數將實現或已實現並將實現 1.7b 歐元水準的獲利能力和流動性。

And -- but however, we are uncertain as to when the capacity orders would come.

然而，我們不確定產能訂單何時會到來。

This is not a pessimistic comment.

這並不是悲觀的評論。

This is a statement of uncertainty.

這是一個不確定性的陳述。

And this is where at this moment we are.

這就是我們此刻所處的位置。

We are not planning to guess the market.

我們不打算猜測市場。

We are just planning to manage accordingly, manage for this uncertainty with the expectation of being able to go up significantly in the end of Q2, beginning of Q3 if the capacity orders were to come back.

我們只是計劃進行相應的管理，管理這種不確定性，預計如果產能訂單恢復的話，能夠在第二季末、第三季初大幅上升。

Or adapt our cost structure with the flexibility that we have acquired, in case Q3 were not to materialize.

或利用我們所獲得的靈活性來調整我們的成本結構，以防第三季無法實現。

So this summarizes, in fact, the messages that we wanted to pass.

事實上，這總結了我們想要傳遞的訊息。

Very good performance in Q4, proving a potential.

第四季表現非常好，證明了潛力。

Very good penetration in the technology arena -- advanced technology arena.

在技​​術領域——先進技術領域有很好的滲透力。

Uncertainty as to when the capacity order will come.

產能訂單何時到來存在不確定性。

And on this, I would welcome your questions.

關於這一點，我歡迎您提出問題。

Thank you Mr. Meurice. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

謝謝莫里斯先生。 [操作員說明]。

First question comes from Mr. Orchi (ph).

第一個問題來自 Orchi 先生（ph）。

Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hello.

你好。

My name is [Uechi Orchi] from JP Morgan.

我是摩根大通的[Uechi Orchi]。

My first question is to Mr. Meurice.

我的第一個問題是問莫里斯先生的。

You hinted that the order trend, I think in the press call, was quite weak in the first 2 months of the quarter and then picked up in December.

我認為您在新聞發布會上暗示訂單趨勢在本季度的前 2 個月相當疲軟，然後在 12 月有所回升。

Just the first question is, as we have entered into the third week of January, what's your sense of what the order momentum is?

第一個問題是，隨著我們進入一月的第三週，您對訂單動能有何看法？

And the secondly, can you also conference -- this is for Peter, can you confirm that the ASP new order intake was about 17.2m.

其次，您能否也開個會議——這是 Peter 的發言，您能否確認 ASP 新訂單量約為 1720 萬份。

And how do we think about ASPs for the rest of 2005?

我們如何看待 2005 年剩餘時間的 ASP？

The ASP trend?

ASP 趨勢？

Yes, this is the crux of the analogies of future potential.

是的，這就是未來潛力類比的關鍵。

Clearly we had a very significant backlog in Q2 and Q3 of 2004.

顯然，我們在 2004 年第二季和第三季有大量積壓訂單。

And you can imagine that it was natural to accumulate such a backlog in an environment of capacity constraints.

你可以想像，在容量有限的環境下，累積這樣的積壓是很自然的。

It is clear, natural for customers to book ahead in the view of securing slots.

很明顯，客戶為了確保座位而提前預訂是很自然的。

When the market corrected itself in the Q2 timeframe, this necessity became less fundamental.

當市場在第二季進行自我修正時，這種必要性就變得不那麼重要了。

And the fact that there was an obvious correction to -- I would not say overbooked, but to a conservative backlog, to a more natural backlog was natural.

事實上，對——我不會說超額預訂，而是對保守的積壓、更自然的積壓進行了明顯的修正，這是很自然的。

This happened in Q4, where October didn't see any activity.

這發生在第四季度，十月沒有看到任何活動。

November did see some, I would say, backlog clean-up with 5 to 6 and 5 to 7 systems which were, again, sold.

我想說，11 月確實清理了 5 到 6 個和 5 到 7 個系統的積壓訂單，這些系統再次被出售。

But they were mainly base orders.

但它們主要是基本訂單。

And December saw the activities coming back.

12 月，活動又回來了。

But this activity has been well balanced between Memory customers, Foundry and other Logic customers.

但這項活動在記憶體客戶、代工廠和其他邏輯客戶之間得到了很好的平衡。

This is -- we received about 27 units of orders in the December timeframe.

這是——我們在 12 月的時間範圍內收到了大約 27 單位的訂單。

Since we started the year in January, it is much too early to say.

由於我們從一月開始了這一年，現在說還為時過早。

Historically there is no activity in the first 2 weeks of January, mainly due to closing or any other seasonal issues.

從歷史上看，一月份的前兩週沒有任何活動，主要是由於關閉或任何其他季節性問題。

We could just say that the third week, which is, in fact, this week, we are starting to have activities back.

我們可以說，第三週，實際上是本週，我們開始恢復活動。

But I would say again, much too early to call.

但我要再說一遍，現在打電話還太早。

On your question which is on the new ASP, that's what I guess you are referring to?

關於您關於新 ASP 的問題，我猜您指的是這個問題？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

That is in the area you just mentioned here.

那就是你剛才提到的區域。

Are you ready to take --

你準備好接受——

Can I just have a follow-up please?

我可以跟進一下嗎？

On immersion tools, you have 8 units booked in the backlog.

對於沉浸式工具，您在積壓中預訂了 8 個單位。

What is your sense?

你的感覺是什麼？

Last quarter you were guiding to about 10 to 12, I think, for the full year 2005.

我認為，上個季度您對 2005 年全年的指導目標是大約 10 到 12 個。

Is your expectation for the full year still around that number or should we use this 8 units already in the backlog to expect something higher than that for the rest of 2005?

您對全年的預期是否仍在這個數字附近，或者我們是否應該使用積壓中的這 8 個單位來預期比 2005 年剩餘時間更高的數字？

No, the 8 units in backlog, if I'm not mistaken, is for the first half of 2005.

不，沒記錯的話，積壓的 8 個單位是 2005 年上半年的。

And therefore we would expect to book more soon, by the way.

因此，順便說一句，我們希望盡快預訂更多。

And clearly there would be 2 facets to this.

顯然這有兩個面向。

1 is because we introduce a new machine - the 1400, which will be available as immersion machine only in Q3.

1 是因為我們推出了一款新機器 - 1400，它將僅在第三季度作為浸入式機器提供。

And these ones are not booked yet and they will have to be booked.

而且這些還沒有預訂，必須預訂。

And, as you may also know, we have some great potential on some of the former 1400s which will be shipped into [Head 1], which will be probably upgraded, or potentially upgraded, within the last half of 2005.

而且，您可能也知道，我們在一些前 1400 型號上具有巨大的潛力，這些型號將被運送到 [Head 1]，這些型號可能會在 2005 年下半年進行升級或可能升級。

So in other terms, 8 backlog immersion is the certain minimum for the year 2005.

因此換句話說，8 個待辦事項浸入度是 2005 年的最低限度。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Gaudois.

下一個問題是高杜瓦先生提出的。

Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行。

First question on ASPs in Q1 increasing quite meaningfully by about €2m for total tools.

第一個問題是關於第一季 ASP 的工具總數大幅增加了約 200 萬歐元。

Could you give a bit of clarity on what is driving the increase in ASP for shipments in Q1 in terms of makes?

您能否詳細說明一下推動第一季出貨量（以品牌計算）平均售價成長的因素是什麼？

Is it [1 and 3] dry or is immersion playing a part?

[1 和 3] 是乾燥的還是浸沒的？

And would you expect ASPs to effectively step down from there and normalize the base in Q2 and Q3 before resuming their normal course?

您是否期望 ASP 能夠有效地從那裡退出，並在第二季和第三季恢復正常基數，然後再恢復正常進程？

In other words, is Q1 somewhat exceptional in terms of mix?

換句話說，第一季在組合方面是否有些特殊？

Yes and yes.

是的，是的。

For the backlog you have on slide 27, in fact an explanation.

對於幻燈片 27 上的積壓工作，實際上是一個解釋。

We have -- the backlog is -- comprises 63% in value of the ArF segment, 193.

我們的積壓訂單佔 ArF 細分市場價值的 63%，即 193。

And this is a key driver of the ASP.

這是 ASP 的關鍵驅動因素。

In fact, I should say the 300 millimeter on one hand, which is 90% of the backlog, and 63% of the backlog being 193 nanometers.

事實上，我一方面應該說300毫米，這是積壓的90%，而積壓的63%是193奈米。

These are the reasons why the ASP is so high.

這些都是ASP如此高的原因。

Now, we do expect, or we do expect in the normal environment, capacity orders should come regularly.

現在，我們確實預計，或者我們確實預計在正常環境下，產能訂單應該會定期到來。

And already in Q1 for Q2 deliveries, it will be a mixture of used machines as well as a mixture of potential 200 millimeters or KrF machines.

在第一季和第二季的交付中，這將是二手機器以及潛在 200 毫米或 KrF 機器的混合。

And this will naturally reduce the average ASP.

而這自然會降低平均ASP。

We do expect, however, that in any event, the trend on the ASP growth will remain.

然而，我們確實預計，無論如何，平均售價成長的趨勢將保持不變。

Great.

偉大的。

Just a follow-up on backlog again, 2% of value is from Japan.

再次跟進積壓訂單，2% 的價值來自日本。

You did ship some tools to 1 customer - Matsushita in Q4.

您確實在第四季度向 1 位客戶 - 松下運送了一些工具。

Were the orders placed in Q4 from the same customer and would you expect this portion to grow naturally for up to the first half of 2005?

第四季的訂單是否來自同一客戶？您預計這部分訂單到 2005 年上半年會自然成長嗎？

I cannot address questions which are too customer-specific.

我無法解決過於針對客戶的問題。

We do expect, however, to receive orders from our current 4 customers in 2005, additional to the current orders that we have in the system.

然而，除了我們系統中現有的訂單之外，我們確實預計 2005 年還會收到來自目前 4 位客戶的訂單。

It is very difficult at this very moment to call the timing.

此時此刻，很難確定時機。

Great.

偉大的。

Just a very quick clarification of what you said before, and then I leave you.

只是快速澄清一下你之前所說的話，然後我就離開你了。

When you were mentioning 27 orders, Eric, in December, was this for new tools or total tools including refurbished?

Eric，當您在 12 月提到 27 個訂單時，這是新工具還是包括翻新工具在內的全部工具？

That was including total tools.

這包括全部工具。

But I must say I will have to look at them because this is a very small for refurbished, if I'm not mistaken.

但我必須說，如果我沒記錯的話，我必須看看它們，因為這對於翻新來說非常小。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Jay Deahna, JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jay Deahna 先生。

Go ahead sir.

繼續吧先生。

Hi.

你好。

It's Jay Deahna from JP Morgan.

我是摩根大通的傑伊‧迪納 (Jay Deahna)。

Now that Canon has backed away from the ArF market for 90 and 65 millimeters, I'm just wondering -- hello?

現在佳能已經退出了 90 毫米和 65 毫米的 ArF 市場，我只是想知道 - 你好？

Yes, go ahead Jay.

是的，繼續吧，傑伊。

Yes, now that Canon has backed away from the leading edge ArF market, I'm just wondering what kind of momentum you have in terms of possibly gaining some market share from maybe second tier Taiwan or Japanese customers that are going to have to look elsewhere for leading edge ArF systems?

是的，現在佳能已經退出了領先的 ArF 市場，我只是想知道你們有什麼樣的動力來可能從可能不得不尋找其他地方的二線台灣或日本客戶那裡獲得一些市場份額用於領先的 ArF 系統？

We do not comment, of course, on our competitors and their strategy.

當然，我們不會評論我們的競爭對手及其策略。

Coming myself from Intel anyway, I will be a very, I would say paranoiac and believing that our competitors are always there with a potential better product than ours.

不管怎樣，我自己來自英特爾，我會是一個非常偏執的人，相信我們的競爭對手總是有比我們更好的產品。

So not withstanding this, it is true that we have felt a very good acceptance of our ArF product, mainly due to its capability in throughput of course, because it is TWINSCAN architecture.

儘管如此，我們的 ArF 產品確實得到了很好的認可，當然主要是因為它的吞吐量能力，因為它是 TWINSCAN 架構。

But also in overlay, which, as you know, improves significantly the yield on the critical layer.

而且在疊加中，如您所知，這可以顯著提高關鍵層的良率。

And we think that its performance, throughput combined with yield on critical layers at the low end of the resolution, is making our penetration in every area of the world, Japan in particular, much easier.

我們認為，其效能、吞吐量以及低解析度關鍵層的良率，使我們更容易滲透到世界各個地區，尤其是日本。

We have also some hope that in addition to the fact that critical layers become even more of a bigger business in view of the fact that critical nodes means and requires more layers -- critical layers.

我們還有一些希望，除了關鍵層變得更加更大的業務之外，鑑於關鍵節點意味著並需要更多的層——關鍵層。

We also believe that mid-critical (ph) layers also become more subject to yield and overlay requirement.

我們也認為，中臨界（ph）層也變得更容易受到良率和覆蓋要求的影響。

And we therefore believe that in addition to our current potential leadership in the ArF critical layer, we may have the same type of things happening as the mid-critical layers become more yield conscious.

因此，我們相信，除了我們目前在 ArF 關鍵層的潛在領導地位之外，隨著中關鍵層變得更加註重良率，我們可能會發生同樣類型的事情。

And so we expect to see this happening sometime in the year 2005.

因此我們預計這會在 2005 年的某個時候發生。

Right.

正確的。

So just a quick follow-up.

所以只是快速跟進。

In the fourth quarter, did you book any systems from any new customers?

第四季度，你們有沒有向新客戶預訂任何系統？

And do you expect anything like that in 1Q?

您預計第一季會出現這樣的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Let's look at the number.

我們來看看這個數字。

I think we have some wins.

我認為我們取得了一些勝利。

So I don't know if we can publish them.

所以我不知道我們是否可以發布它們。

We have some wins in Taiwan for Memory vendors.

我們在台灣為內存供應商贏得了一些勝利。

There again I'm not sure I can mention.

我再次不確定我是否可以提及。

So there is a clear path of gaining new customers.

因此，有一條明確的贏得新客戶的途徑。

And these customers -- how many?

這些客戶有多少？

There is a number.

有一個數字。

Yes, so we have at least 2 new customers that started to book in Q4 and that we will deliver in the first half.

是的，所以我們至少有 2 位新客戶在第四季度開始預訂，我們將在上半年交付。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Robert Mare.

下一個問題來自羅伯特·馬雷。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Robert Mare, Needham & Company.

羅伯特‧馬雷，李約瑟公司。

Can you tell us about what sort of push out or rearrangements of delivery schedules you had over the past few months, and any sort of pattern that that would imply?

您能否告訴我們過去幾個月您對交貨計劃進行了什麼樣的推遲或重新安排，以及這意味著什麼模式？

Yes, in fact there were 7 orders, which were cancelled because we did not accept for [indiscernible], we didn't think the orders were significant enough to need to have a slot reserved, etc.

是的，事實上有 7 個訂單被取消，因為我們不接受[音訊不清晰]，我們認為這些訂單不足以需要預留席位等。

So there was a clean-up of 7.

於是就進行了7次清理。

Most of them were things which were planned to be in the Q3 timeframe.

其中大多數是計劃在第三季時間範圍內完成的事情。

And a mixture of new and used -- a mixture of customers.

新的和二手的混合－客戶的混合。

Clearly no reading of any trends.

顯然沒有閱讀任何趨勢。

You can imagine that when you are in Q4 and anything happened in November, there was, on both sides, I would say as well on the customer side, a need for clean-up.

你可以想像，當你進入第四季並且 11 月發生任何事情時，雙方（我想說的是客戶方）都需要進行清理。

And that's basically what happened.

這基本上就是發生的事情。

It's not even a correction of the bookings booked.

這甚至不是對預訂的更正。

It was old things that were in the system.

這是系統中的舊東西。

Clearly there was no significant cancellation for deliveries in Q4.

顯然，第四季的交付沒有出現重大取消。

There were push-outs and put-ins, as usual, in such a situation.

在這種情況下，像往常一樣，有推出和投入。

I would like to add to that, Robert, that in a few of those cases we decided to pull them off the books because we did not believe that we would ship them in the time period that was indicated on the backlog.

羅伯特，我想補充一點，在其中一些情況下，我們決定將它們從帳簿中刪除，因為我們不相信我們會在積壓訂單上指定的時間段內發貨。

But also, if you look at the cancellations throughout the year, we had 4 in the first quarter, 9 in the second quarter, 9 in the third quarter and 7 in the fourth quarter.

而且，如果你看一下全年的取消情況，第一季有 4 起，第二季有 9 起，第三季有 9 起，第四季有 7 起。

So that's not a trend.

所以這不是一種趨勢。

It's something that happens from time to time.

這是時常發生的事。

And those cancellations can very often happen at the source of that.

這些取消往往是在根源上發生的。

They cancel one through and they reorder another.

他們取消了一項，然後重新訂購了另一項。

So it's quite normal.

所以這是很正常的。

So, just as a clarification, so there were no substantial rescheduling of orders in Q1 or Q2 or pushing out of Q1 into Q2 for example?

那麼，作為澄清，第一季或第二季的訂單沒有大幅重新安排，或從第一季推到第二季？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mrs. [Gjord Adian].

下一個問題是 [Gjord Adian] 女士提出的。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Good afternoon.

午安.

This is actually Dieter Weber from Morgan Stanley.

這其實是摩根士丹利的迪特韋伯。

I would probably just have 2 questions.

我可能只有兩個問題。

And that is in regards to your strategy, you indicated that you will focus on the mid-critical layers going forward as one of your target markets.

這就是關於您的策略，您表示您將專注於未來的中關鍵層作為您的目標市場之一。

Could you just give us a feel in terms of potential indications this might have in terms of your marketing sales effort.

您能否讓我們感受一下這可能對您的行銷銷售工作產生的潛在影響？

And for Peter then, if -- what the impact actually might be in terms of the guidance for these OpEx points?

那麼對於 Peter 來說，如果 - 這些 OpEx 點的指導實際上可能會產生什麼影響？

Yes, this is a very good question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

In the growth initiative, 1 initiative is to move or improve our market share in areas where our market share is not exclusive.

在成長計劃中，第一項計劃是在我們的市場份額不具有排他性的領域移動或提高我們的市場份額。

It is -- in other terms, we think we have a fairly high market share in ArF.

換句話說，我們認為我們在 ArF 領域擁有相當高的市佔率。

We think, therefore, that our market share in KrF and i-line is not to the same level and therefore an opportunity.

因此，我們認為我們在 KrF 和 i-line 的市佔率不在同一水平，因此是一個機會。

In order to get there, most of the focus has been to develop an architecture which is cheaper than the current architecture so that we can hit more easily the price points requested by the customers without having a margin impact.

為了實現這一目標，我們的重點是開發比目前架構更便宜的架構，以便我們可以更輕鬆地達到客戶要求的價格點，而不會影響利潤。

So we are coming in there with a new product, called the 400 XT or XT 400, which we are marketing to the different customers.

因此，我們推出了一款新產品，稱為 400 XT 或 XT 400，我們正在向不同的客戶進行行銷。

In terms of impact on OpEx, we do not expect this to be any impact because this is just another product in the roadmap, which will use the same sales force, of course.

就對營運支出的影響而言，我們預計這不會產生任何影響，因為這只是路線圖中的另一個產品，當然，它將使用相同的銷售人員。

And we will use the same services environment.

我們將使用相同的服務環境。

So of course we expect that if we get highly successful to this, we will have a variable cost increase due to the servicing of those different and machines.

因此，我們當然預計，如果我們在這方面取得巨大成功，由於這些不同的機器的維修，我們的成本將會增加。

But nothing in that which will not be -- not be added cost.

但沒有什麼是不會增加成本的。

And also, because it is part of the planned initiatives for 2005, it is in the R&D in our budget and is also in the guidance that we gave you.

而且，因為它是 2005 年計畫舉措的一部分，所以它包含在我們預算的研發中，也包含在我們為您提供的指導中。

Could I just ask another quick follow-up question?

我可以再問一個快速的後續問題嗎？

On your balance sheet you have -- in the position for upper [cost] asset, and increase by roughly €50m.

在您的資產負債表上，您處於較高[成本]資產的位置，並且增加了約 5000 萬歐元。

Could you just give us an idea of what that is?

您能告訴我們那是什麼嗎？

Have to have -- if you give me --

一定有——如果你給我——

I was just wondering if it's potentially in regards to your agreement with Micronics, for example?

我只是想知道這是否可能與您與 Micronics 的協議有關？

No.

不。

It's just -- I'm just looking at some details announced here, these are operational-related issues.

只是——我只是看看這裡宣布的一些細節，這些都是與營運相關的問題。

There's an increase in the VAT balance.

增值稅餘額增加。

There's an increase in some pre-paid expenses.

一些預付費用有所增加。

We increased -- there's an increase in compared market value of the derivatives, the [733 valuation].

我們增加了－衍生性商品的相對市場價值增加，[733 估值]。

So it's a bit of everything.

所以這就是一切。

It's nothing -- it is nothing specific.

沒什麼——沒什麼具體的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Nav Sheera.

下一個問題來自 Nav Sheera。

Could you please state your company name followed by your question sir.

先生，能否請您說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi there.

你好呀。

It's Nav Sheera from Citigroup.

我是花旗集團的 Nav Sheera。

Eric, I was just wondering, on your [faults] that you've got for the execution purposes for X months going forward, that is, tech -- technological, leadership, [differentiation] and cost competitiveness, I just wanted to ask what you personally are bringing to the party from your previous experience with regards to these 3?

艾瑞克，我只是想知道，關於你在未來 X 個月的執行目的中所犯的[錯誤]，即技術——技術、領導力、[差異化] 和成本競爭力，我只是想問什麼您個人會將您之前關於這三個方面的經驗帶到聚會上嗎？

And also how could we see this leading to a lower break-even than 1 third a unit in the future in time?

而且我們怎麼能看到這會導致未來單位的損益平衡點低於三分之一呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

This is a very good question.

這個問題問得好。

The technology part is, of course, a legacy.

當然，技術部分是遺產。

I would say this Company is based on technology.

我想說這家公司是基於技術的。

It is based on technology leadership.

它基於技術領先地位。

And I will be only a great supporter of this.

我將只是這一點的大力支持者。

And you remember also that I come from the IC industry, Intel and ICC, where we had, at the time, pioneered the digital TV business, etc. etc.

你還記得我來自 IC 產業、英特爾和 ICC，當時我們在這些產業開創了數位電視業務等。

So technology, I would be part of the team and hopefully be a great cheerleader.

因此，技術方面，我將成為團隊的一員，並希望成為一名出色的啦啦隊長。

But also somebody who will look closely at business plans.

但也有人會仔細研究商業計劃。

And I am sure that we will soon ask those questions about the [indiscernible].

我確信我們很快就會提出有關[音訊不清晰]的這些問題。

And clearly I will make sure that there is [agreement] in the decisions we are taking.

顯然，我將確保我們正在做出的決定是[一致的]。

But on the other hand, we also understand that technology is an art where you drive innovation with certain way and giving enough freedom to get to the level of leadership that is necessary.

但另一方面，我們也明白，科技是一門藝術，你可以透過某種方式推動創新，並給予足夠的自由來達到必要的領導水準。

The 2 other focuses -- cost and lead time.

另外兩個焦點——成本和交貨時間。

You may have heard it from the voice of my known former boss, Michael Dell.

您可能從我著名的前老闆邁克爾·戴爾的聲音中聽到過這句話。

And it is something that I certainly lived through in full detail for the 6 years of my life at Dell and after that with Thomson.

在戴爾工作的 6 年以及此後在湯姆森工作的 6 年裡，我確實詳細地經歷了這一點。

I will be driving 2 things. 1, focus.

我將駕駛兩件事。 1、聚焦。

Attention to these things, which when you are a technology company, you may not have put on the first page of your agenda.

注意這些事情，當你是一家科技公司時，你可能沒有把這些事情放在你的議程的第一頁。

And, as you see here, we at the Board level wanted to commit ourselves by talking to you and deciding these focuses to clarify to everybody, also within our own organization, that this is the long-term initiative.

而且，正如您在這裡看到的，我們在董事會層面希望透過與您交談並決定這些重點來向每個人（包括我們自己的組織內的每個人）澄清這是一項長期舉措。

And we are going to put serious focus to this.

我們將認真關注這一點。

Now the additional part, which I hope to be able to contribute, is there are methods, methodology, execution methodology about lead time and cycle time or speed, in general, or cost, which a person from the PC industry or the TV industry, like I am, has been dealing with.

現在我希望能夠貢獻的附加部分是關於交貨時間和週期時間或速度的方法、方法論、執行方法論，一般來說，或成本，來自個人電腦行業或電視行業的人，就像我一樣，一直在應對。

And I plan to be very, very involved in the day to day activity, trench-work, to get to appropriate performance.

我計劃非常非常積極地參與日常活動、戰壕工作，以獲得適當的表現。

Now, the third aspect of this is being a new person and realizing that you are new only for the first 100 days of that.

現在，第三個方面是成為一個新人，並意識到你只在前 100 天是新人。

So [live] here, it's very important that you push the teams to work out of the box.

因此，在這裡，推動團隊開箱即用非常重要。

And I think I came up with a certain number of stupid questions enough to get people to think out of the box and they have already. [Enthusiastically] it has taken certain numbers of actions which may need to resolve, in particular, lead times, which are not only the standard continuous improvement process.

我認為我提出了一些愚蠢的問題，足以讓人們跳出框框思考，他們已經這樣做了。 [熱情地]它已經採取了一定數量的可能需要解決的行動，特別是交貨時間，這不僅僅是標準的持續改進流程。

Now, it is much too early for us to commit numbers.

現在，我們承諾數字還為時過早。

And I would gladly do so at some point.

我很樂意在某個時候這樣做。

I think at this moment we commit focus.

我認為此時此刻我們要集中精神。

And we commit results.

我們承諾結果。

We just would want to be given a bit more time before we quantify exactly the time and the extent of those results.

我們只是希望在準確量化這些結果的時間和範圍之前有更多的時間。

So just a very quick follow-up, you would be able to see improvement, say, on a 4 to 9 month lead time?

因此，只需非常快速的跟進，您就能在 4 到 9 個月的準備時間內看到改善？

And you would be able to see improvement on a 130 unit break-even in the future?

您將來是否能夠看到 130 單位損益平衡點有所改善？

Certainly.

當然。

In fact, lead time is hiding tons of things.

事實上，交貨時間隱藏著很多東西。

It's hiding first value.

它隱藏了第一個值。

If you get to a customer and say this is not any more 4 to 9 months lead time, but it is 2 to 6 or 1 to 6, if we get excited about it, then you create value for the customer.

如果您聯絡客戶並說交貨時間不再是 4 到 9 個月，而是 2 到 6 個月或 1 到 6 個月，如果我們對此感到興奮，那麼您就為客戶創造了價值。

And your customer at the end pays for the value that he gets.

您的客戶最終會為他獲得的價值付費。

So you have an improvement of margin that comes from the value that you get.

因此，您的利潤率會因您獲得的價值而提高。

Secondly, and again using terms that Michael Dell used often, low lead time companies with low friction.

其次，再次使用邁克爾·戴爾經常使用的術語，“低交貨期公司，低摩擦”。

Friction is cost.

摩擦就是成本。

So if you have things quicker.

所以如果你有事情更快的話。

If you do things faster, you also lessen your costs -- your [indiscernible] costs, and of course, cash cycle diminishes to significant levels.

如果你做得更快，你也會減少你的成本——你的[難以辨別的]成本，當然，現金週期也會減少到顯著的水平。

So we do expect that this will absolutely improve the performance -- the financial performance.

所以我們確實期望這絕對會改善業績——財務表現。

Of course, the break-even and most importantly, the speed at which we can react to a cycle.

當然，損虧平衡，最重要的是我們對週期做出反應的速度。

Because break-even theoretical is one thing.

因為理論上的收支平衡是一回事。

The other thing is how fast you can go down in your own variable costs.

另一件事是你自己的變動成本下降的速度有多快。

And these things will contribute to the P&L significantly.

這些事情將對損益表做出重大貢獻。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Ali Irani.

下一個問題是阿里·伊拉尼先生提出的。

Would you please state your name and question sir.

先生，請說出您的姓名和問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

This is Ali Irani with CIBC World Markets.

我是 CIBC 世界市場部的阿里·伊拉尼 (Ali Irani)。

Understanding that there's a residual level of technology investment still taking shape in the first quarter and your comments about being early in the quarter.

了解第一季仍有剩餘的技術投資水平以及您對本季初的評論。

Do you have visibility in your order book right now for unit bookings or euro bookings shipping out to be a flat or better quarter from the Q4 crop?

您現在的訂單簿中是否可以看到單位預訂量或歐元預訂量與第四季產量持平或更好？

And Eric and Peter, the reason I ask that is looking at the unit levels and bookings, we're very close at the top run rate we were at in the first half of 2004 -- 2003.

艾瑞克和彼得，我問這個問題的原因是查看單位等級和預訂量，我們非常接近 2004 年上半年至 2003 年的最高運行率。

In fact this is correct.

事實上這是正確的。

If you look at this chart, which I think you had on page 25, if you put yourself in December '03 mode, you would put yourself with about €1b backlog.

如果你看一下這張圖表（我認為你在第 25 頁上有過），如果你將自己置於 2003 年 12 月模式，你會發現自己有大約 10 億歐元的積壓。

And then with €1b backlog you would have created a business of €2.5b.

然後，如果您積壓了 10 億歐元，您就可以創造 2.5 億歐元的業務。

Okay.

好的。

This is what we did in 2004.

這就是我們在 2004 年所做的。

So therefore, if you are the optimistic person, you would say that with a backlog of €1.7b at the start of the year, if you extrapolate to this €2.5b, you can get highly optimistic.

因此，如果您是樂觀的人，您會說年初的積壓金額為 1.7b 歐元，如果您推斷到 2.5b 歐元，您會變得非常樂觀。

But what was interesting with these statistics is that yes, with a backlog of €1b we can create even better numbers than the one we have guided, even as early as Q1, which is the question where we are calling for about 60 units at €10.7m.

但這些統計數據的有趣之處在於，是的，憑藉10 億歐元的積壓，我們甚至可以早在第一季就創造出比我們指導的更好的數字，這就是我們要求以歐元購買約60 個單位的問題。10.7m。

So obviously in the quarter it would be difficult to do much better.

顯然，本季很難做得更好。

But there is always options to do more used machines, etc.

但總有選擇做更多二手機器等。

And I remind everybody that we are in very [indiscernible] business.

我提醒大家，我們的業務非常[難以辨認]。

We can go up or we can go down with 1 or 2 machines, and that makes the system we can do that.

我們可以用 1 或 2 台機器向上或向下，這使得我們的系統可以做到這一點。

Now unfortunately, if you look at the glass half full, you would look at the same page, slide 25, and you will see that in December '02 we had also a backlog of €1b.

現在不幸的是，如果你看半滿的玻璃杯，你會看到同一頁，幻燈片 25，你會發現在 2002 年 12 月我們還有 10 億歐元的積壓。

But then in December 2002 -- sorry, 2003, developed very, very differently.

但到了 2002 年 12 月——抱歉，是 2003 年，情況發生了非常非常不同的變化。

So this is why, at the end, we want to have an uncertain or not a cautious look at 2005, just an uncertain look.

因此，這就是為什麼我們最終希望對 2005 年有一個不確定的或不謹慎的看法，只是一個不確定的看法。

We have got a good backlog.

我們有很好的積壓。

The good news is that backlog is above significantly what it was in 2002 and what it was in 2003.

好消息是，積壓訂單大大高於 2002 年和 2003 年。

So we are not above in the performance then.

所以我們當時的表現不算高。

But whether this will go up or down within the year, not the fact itself, but the outside, is something that we cannot call.

但這一年之內是漲還是跌，不是事實本身，而是外界，是我們無法判斷的。

Our optimism, however, goes to the level where we are preparing ourselves with smart supply chains to bigger numbers.

然而，我們的樂觀情緒是，我們正在為更多的人準備智慧供應鏈。

And we are preparing ourselves to follow the potential lead of 2004, which means the potential growth in Q2 and Q3 above the current backlog.

我們正在準備追隨 2004 年的潛在領先地位，這意味著第二季和第三季的潛在成長將超過目前的積壓訂單。

But we are smart enough to think that it may not happen.

但我們夠聰明，認為這可能不會發生。

And in which case every [indiscernible] commitment we make should not impact our P&L.

在這種情況下，我們所做的每一項[音訊不清晰]承諾都不應影響我們的損益。

So clearly here, we think the messages we want to give is an uncertain message, with enough potential for growth and enough potential for no growth compared to 2004.

很明顯，我們認為我們想要傳達的訊息是一個不確定的訊息，與 2004 年相比，有足夠的成長潛力和足夠的不成長潛力。

And as an add-on Ali, we had -- in the fourth quarter we had just 2 first months were very, very low.

作為阿里的附加產品，我們在第四季的前兩個月的表現非常非常低。

Almost zero.

幾乎為零。

So we had a good bookings month, which was measured early in the month of December.

所以我們的預訂月表現不錯，這是在 12 月初測得的。

So I think we also measured it this afternoon and [indiscernible] to our webcast where [indiscernible] that we do feel that the month of January will not be zero bookings.

因此，我認為我們今天下午也對其進行了測量，並且[音頻不清晰]在我們的網絡廣播中[音頻不清晰]我們確實認為一月份的預訂量不會為零。

It's also, in that sense, because we do not see a repeat of the fourth quarter where the first 1 or 2 months were zero.

就這個意義上來說，這也是因為我們沒有看到第四季的情況重演，前一兩個月為零。

So Peter, if I try to extrapolate from those comments and some of the announcements by some of your core customers and the larger spenders, it would be fair to expect your unit bookings to be no worse than flat?

那麼彼得，如果我嘗試從這些評論以及您的一些核心客戶和較大的消費者的一些公告中進行推斷，那麼您的單位預訂量不會比持平更差，這是公平的嗎？

If I look at your fourth quarter bookings when they come in on the new systems, you are probably 10 to 15 units shy of the order book that was hoped for in the quarter.

如果我看一下你們第四季在新系統上收到的訂單，你們可能比本季預期的訂單量少了 10 到 15 個單位。

Maybe those 10 to 15 units slip into the first quarter.

也許這 10 到 15 個單位會滑入第一季。

Is that a good way to read that?

這是閱讀的好方法嗎？

That is a very reasonable way to read it.

這是一種非常合理的閱讀方式。

But again, the key difficulty in our communication is that we believe that it is a possibility.

但同樣，我們溝通中的主要困難是我們相信這是一種可能性。

And therefore we are strongly preparing the supply chain to do so.

因此，我們正在為供應鏈做好充分準備。

But we are not wanting to guide and take the risk that will have an impact on the P&L just because we were being 100% certain, because that is not the case.

但我們不想僅僅因為我們百分之百確定就指導和承擔對損益產生影響的風險，因為事實並非如此。

Right.

正確的。

And 1 quick follow-up on the immersion litho tools.

以及 1 個關於浸沒式微影工具的快速跟進。

What is the current cycle time and lead times for those tools?

這些工具的當前週期時間和交貨時間是多少？

And how many do you see yourself limited at building for 2005?

您認為 2005 年自己的建設能力有限？

In my optimistic view, I would say the sky is the limit.

在我樂觀的觀點中，我會說天空才是極限。

But you may want -- it is difficult.

但你可能想要——這很困難。

The lead time, the tool itself is, and the structure itself, whether it is a 1400 or a 1250, its standards apply.

交貨時間、工具本身以及結構本身，無論是 1400 還是 1250，都適用其標準。

It's -- I think it's about a 9-month lead time.

我認為大約有 9 個月的準備時間。

The fact that it is immersion or not is not impacting significantly the lead time in fact.

事實上，是否沉浸並不會顯著影響交貨時間。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Matt Gable.

下一個問題來自馬特蓋博。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Calypso Capital.

卡利普索資本。

I was just wondering, generally, what's the sentiment out there from your customers for the first half of this year?

我只是想知道今年上半年你們的客戶整體情緒如何？

Are they more implying to spend in the first half of the year versus what they were thinking a few months ago?

與幾個月前的想法相比，他們是否更願意在上半年支出？

Has there been any attitude change?

態度有改變嗎？

Well you as you have seen, I guess, the 2 big attitude changes in the market with the very, very large customer of ours and key players in the industry, whom I will not mention to you.

好吧，正如您所看到的，我想，市場上的兩個重大態度變化是我們非常非常大的客戶和行業中的主要參與者，我不會向您提及。

But I know you know the 2 big names that they would overspend in 2005.

但我知道你知道 2005 年他們會超支的兩個大牌。

You have the Memory people who -- I don't think they've done any announcement, but they are clearly saying that they believe prices will be under pressure in 2005.

記憶人士——我認為他們沒有做出任何聲明，但他們明確表示他們相信 2005 年價格將面臨壓力。

And therefore they need to run faster in their technology ramp-up because price being the issue -- cost is the issue, therefore they need to get to the next generation.

因此，他們需要更快地提昇技術，因為價格是問題——成本也是問題，因此他們需要進入下一代。

And that we have seen already some orders from other than the big guys we talk about, who already boost orders.

我們已經看到除了我們談論的大公司之外的一些訂單，他們已經增加了訂單。

And you can see the amount of our jobs, the backlog -- in fact I don't think we show -- yes, we show.

你可以看到我們的工作量、積壓工作量——事實上，我認為我們沒有展示——是的，我們展示了。

Memory, 50% -- 49% of our backlog is Memory business.

內存，我們積壓的 50% - 49% 是內存業務。

So you can see here a serious, I would say, optimism as to the need for CapEx investment.

因此，我想說，您可以在這裡看到對資本支出投資需求的嚴肅樂觀態度。

If you look, however, in 2 other areas, you have got 2 areas of question marks. 1 is Foundry.

但是，如果您查看其他 2 個區域，您會發現 2 個區域有問號。 1是鑄造廠。

And we all know that Foundry will be a short-term decision making point.

我們都知道 Foundry 將是一個短期決策點。

So at the moment you see the statistics, the overall statistics of semiconductor going in a different way.

因此，目前您看到的統計數據是，半導體的整體統計數據以不同的方式發展。

We know that that will trigger some orders.

我們知道這會觸發一些訂單。

At this point, those numbers haven't happened.

目前，這些數字還沒有發生。

But I think it is perfect to say that 1 or even 2 foundries have already announced that they are more optimistic, which I think is the first step before taking a decision.

但我認為完美的是，有 1 家甚至 2 家代工廠已經宣布他們更加樂觀，我認為這是做出決定之前的第一步。

So Foundry business, we expect this to be short term.

因此，我們預期代工業務是短期的。

And this is why this makes us -- puts a challenge on our supply chain because we know that we have to react fast.

這就是為什麼這對我們的供應鏈提出了挑戰，因為我們知道我們必須快速做出反應。

And the third segment and the last segment before the fourth segment, are the people like -- I will mention names, like AMD, Infineon, Steele (ph), who have made announcements to the effect that they don't see 2005 as a good year for themselves and that they have to go disciplined on CapEx management.

第三部分和第四部分之前的最後一個部分是這樣的人——我會提到AMD、英飛凌、斯蒂爾（ph）等名字，他們已經宣布，他們不認為2005年是一個重要的一年。這對他們自己來說是美好的一年，他們必須在資本支出管理上遵守紀律。

And for this I would not comment more than their own press releases.

對於這一點，除了他們自己的新聞稿外，我不會發表更多評論。

But I remind everybody that again we are strong in the technology transitions.

但我再次提醒大家，我們在技術轉型方面表現強勁。

And on these technology transitions we give the first priority of CapEx decision.

在這些科技轉型中，我們將資本支出決策放在第一位。

And therefore we may be impacted a bit by them reducing their CapEx exposure -- expenditure.

因此，我們可能會受到他們減少資本支出（支出）的影響。

But not as much as [you could measure].

但沒有[你可以測量]那麼多。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Meunier.

下一個問題來自 Meunier 先生。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Good afternoon gentlemen.

先生們下午好。

It's Francois Meunier from Cazenove.

我是來自卡澤諾夫的弗朗索瓦·莫尼耶。

Yes.

是的。

Regarding your guidance for Q1.

關於您對第一季的指導。

I just wanted to make sure what kind of assumptions you are making for used systems.

我只是想確定您對二手系統做出了什麼樣的假設。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

First of all great accent.

首先，口音很棒。

Second sense, we have to look at the numbers.

第二點，我們必須看數字。

Okay, on the 60 units.

好的，60 單位。

Yes, the numbers that you have are 60 units, out of which 10 are used.

是的，您擁有的數量是 60 個單位，其中 10 個已使用。

Okay.

好的。

And in terms of services, I think we've seen a bit of a decline sequentially in terms of revenues from services.

在服務方面，我認為我們的服務收入連續下降。

Is it something which is a trend or is it just normal or anything --?

這是一種趨勢還是正常現像或什麼──？

No.

不。

First of all, it's a U.S. dollar question.

首先，這是一個美元問題。

You may know that we have more services in the U.S.

您可能知道我們在美國有更多服務

It's more the way of doing business.

這更多的是做生意的方式。

And we have more difficulty to get a service contract in Asia which are part of the price, though it's a bit difficult for us even, sometimes, to track exactly what services is all about.

我們在亞洲獲得服務合約更加困難，這是價格的一部分，儘管有時我們甚至很難準確追蹤服務的全部內容。

But the number that you have which reduces a bit, is due to the dollar.

但由於美元的影響，數量減少。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

In fact, I may say that there is an opportunity for more service business by the fact that some of the customers who did not want to -- CapEx --- to increase CapEx, will want us to help them drive yield out of the current machine.

事實上，我可以說，由於一些不想增加資本支出的客戶希望我們幫助他們提高當前的收益率，因此存在更多服務業務的機會。機器。

And that will create consulting jobs as well options work as well as service work, which may be boosted in 2005 due to this.

這將創造諮詢工作、選擇權工作以及服務工作，2005 年這些工作可能會因此而增加。

But again, this is not a commitment.

但同樣，這不是承諾。

We are just listening to customers' needs at this very moment.

此時此刻，我們只是傾聽客戶的需求。

Is it fair to assume that it's going to be more in Europe than in the U.S.?

假設歐洲的情況會比美國的情況多，是否公平？

Maybe general.

也許一般。

Everybody has the same problem.

每個人都有同樣的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Ulrich Pelzer.

下一個問題來自 Ulrich Pelzer 先生。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

It's Ulrich Pelzer from Lehman Brothers.

我是雷曼兄弟的烏爾里希·佩爾澤。

Just 1 that requires a bit of a longer answer, then 2 very quick ones.

只有 1 個需要較長的答案，然後是 2 個非常快速的答案。

You said, I think, that in the fourth quarter all ArF shipments were XT 1250 or 1250i.

我認為你說第四季度所有 ArF 出貨量都是 XT 1250 或 1250i。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

And then could you please update me on when is the XT 1400 dry shipping and then the XT 1400i, I think, you said in Q3 of '05?

然後，您能否告訴我 XT 1400 何時乾燥運輸，然後是 XT 1400i，我想，您是在 05 年第三季度說的？

But none of those are in the backlog yet.

但這些都還沒有積壓。

Is all of that correct?

這一切都正確嗎？

While we are looking at the statistics to be sure that we say the truth on Q4, if you can help me there.

當我們查看統計數據以確保我們在第四季度說的是實話時，如果您可以幫助我的話。

On the 1400, drys are scheduled with significant volume in the first half.

1400 上半年，預計乾燥量大。

And this is all booked.

而且這一切都被預訂了。

And we are in the process of delivering those.

我們正在交付這些。

And this is probably going to be the fastest, and probably the fastest [indiscernible] for the issues of ASML in every one with all the machines.

這可能是最快的，而且可能是所有機器上解決 ASML 問題最快的[音訊不清楚]。

The immersion -- the immersion 1400 is due for Q3.

沉浸式體驗－沉浸式 1400 將於第三季發布。

And let me check if I can tell you if we have orders.

讓我查一下是否可以告訴您我們是否有訂單。

Yes, the shipments in Q4 were all XT 1250s.

是的，第四季的出貨量都是 XT 1250。

Okay.

好的。

[Inaudible] 1400.

[聽不清楚] 1400。

The 1400 dry or i?

1400乾還是我？

Both.

兩個都。

And then the XT 400, that's a KrF tool presumably.

然後是 XT 400，這大概是一個 KrF 工具。

And when would it be available for shipment?

什麼時候可以出貨？

The XT 400 will be available for shipment second half 2005.

XT 400 將於 2005 年下半年出貨。

And [indiscernible] XT 400 -- you said 400, yes?

還有 [音訊不清晰] XT 400——你說的是 400，是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

XT 400?

XT 400？

So Q4 2005.

2005 年第四季。

Oh right.

啊對。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then 1 final one.

然後是最後一張。

The 130 break-even EBIT level, what is the ASP underlying that?

130 的損益平衡 EBIT 水平，其背後的 ASP 是多少？

Is that €10m per new tool?

每個新工具是 1000 萬歐元嗎？

It's about €10m, yes.

是的，大約1000萬歐元。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Dan Pang (ph).

下一個問題是 Dan Pang (ph) 提出的。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, this is [Orfis Malik] calling for Dan Pang from Prudential Equity Group.

大家好，我是 [Orfis Malik]，請保德信股票集團的 Dan Pang 來電。

I have a question with respect to your decision to enter the flat panel display market.

我對你們進入平板顯示器市場的決定有一個疑問。

It's a 2 part question.

這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。

Firstly, what is the problem you tried to solve in flat panel display?

首先，您想解決的平板顯示問題是什麼？

And what is the new technology angle that you plan to bring to the table?

您計劃帶來什麼新技術角度？

And secondly, how should we look at the length of the development and the level of spending -- R&D spending going into the flat panel display?

其次，我們該如何看待平板顯示領域的研發週期和研發支出水準？

Yes.

是的。

This is a very good question.

這個問題問得好。

So first of all, you have to fit it in the right place.

因此，首先，您必須將其安裝在正確的位置。

We do not want to create a [me too] product.

我們不想創造一個[我也是]的產品。

So it is clear that we have tried to confirm that we can do a better mouse trap.

所以很明顯，我們已經嘗試確認我們可以製作出更好的捕鼠器。

And that better mouse trap is based on flexibility.

更好的捕鼠器是基於靈活性。

It looks as if the customers will put a lot of value on the possibility to put on immersion 7 or 8, place any type of sizes that they want to make.

看起來客戶會非常重視放置沉浸式 7 或 8 的可能性，放置他們想要製作的任何類型的尺寸。

And all this in a very, very short cycle time.

所有這一切都在非常非常短的周期時間內完成。

So the machines that we are putting together will resolve that problem.

因此，我們組裝的機器將解決這個問題。

And the cost level of that machine is to be at the same level, or potentially better hopefully, than our competitors, which means we are creating more value which, by the way, seems to be significant in terms of millions of dollars that customers will save.

這台機器的成本水平與我們的競爭對手處於同一水平，或者可能更好，這意味著我們正在創造更多價值，順便說一句，就客戶將獲得的數百萬美元而言，這似乎意義重大節省。

And we could do this at the cost level which is equivalent or better than our competition.

我們可以以與我們的競爭對手相當或更好的成本水平來做到這一點。

So the equation-- the economic equation is good.

所以這個方程式——經濟方程式是好的。

So that flexibility seems to have serious implications.

因此，這種靈活性似乎具有嚴重的影響。

In any event, and this is where the issues of when are we going to start fully with all the efforts on that project, the issue is now to have the customer recognize this value and therefore commit.

無論如何，這就是我們何時全面開始該專案的所有努力的問題，現在的問題是讓客戶認識到這一價值並因此做出承諾。

And we will not start without having this done.

如果沒有完成這件事，我們就不會開始。

Clearly this is a business where there are only 4 or 5 potential customers who make the market.

顯然，這是一個只有 4 到 5 個潛在客戶才能創造市場的業務。

It is fundamental for us to have commitment from the most important ones.

最重要的人的承諾對我們來說至關重要。

And this commitment is the proof that we will offer value.

這項承諾證明我們將提供價值。

It's not that it will not make a [killing].

並不是說不會造成【殺戮】。

And that is, at this very moment, what is being discussed.

這就是此時此刻正在討論的問題。

Timeframe-wise, there is no secret.

從時間角度來看，沒有什麼秘密。

We are trying to hit the generation 7/8.

我們正在努力衝擊 7/8 世代。

So at this very moment you will hear that it is a 2-year project.

所以此時此刻你會聽到這是一個為期兩年的計畫。

But again, I want to have the flexibility to say it is a 3-years project if nobody don't want a generation 7 before.

但再次強調，如果沒有人不想要第 7 代，我想靈活地說這是一個為期 3 年的計畫。

Or 8 early if we have to.

如果有必要的話，也可以早八點。

But, of course, this is a significant project.

但是，當然，這是一個重要的項目。

So it's difficult to make it before that.

所以在此之前想要做到這一點是很困難的。

Regarding the outlay of cash for R&D, I would answer your question next quarter when we have the same friendly call.

關於研發的現金支出，我會在下個季度我們有相同的友善電話時回答你的問題。

But because it depends on those discussions that we have with our potential customers, so before we get into that -- those specifics, I would like to go further and get them come in.

但因為這取決於我們與潛在客戶的討論，所以在我們討論這些細節之前，我想進一步讓他們參與其中。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from John Peacher (ph).

下一個問題來自 John Pecher（博士）。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

This is actually Setmeer Komar from John Peacher (ph).

這實際上是約翰·皮徹 (John Peacher) 的塞特梅爾·科馬爾 (Setmeer Komar)。

I'm sorry, I had to jump off the call for a little bit so if I'm repetitive, excuse me for that.

抱歉，我不得不暫停通話，所以如果我重複的話，請原諒。

My question is on the Memory segment.

我的問題是關於內存部分的。

I look back at your backlog composition, then we have gone from 30% early 2004 to almost half the backlog now.

我回顧一下你們的積壓情況，我們已經從 2004 年初的 30% 減少到現在積壓的一半了。

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

What are your thoughts on how sustainable this demand is given that there is a significant amount of supply that's coming online?

鑑於有大量供應上線，您對這種需求的可持續性有何看法？

What would cause you to be worried about this capacity in the segment?

是什麼讓您擔心該細分市場的產能？

And second, if you can just briefly talk about the 193 nanometer penetration in the Memory segment.

其次，您可以簡單談談記憶體領域的 193 奈米滲透率。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I didn't catch the second part of your question.

我沒聽清楚你問題的第二部分。

The 193 penetration.

193 滲透。

So certainly you should never -- well, you should try to avoid quoting long-term trends to a fixed one point backlog.

因此，您當然不應該——好吧，您應該盡量避免將長期趨勢引用到固定的一點積壓上。

As we explained at the beginning, the backlog happened this way because the Memory people have to rush on the technology because of the price curve that goes in their favor.

正如我們在開始時解釋的那樣，積壓之所以發生，是因為內存人員必須搶佔技術，因為價格曲線對他們有利。

So they are trying to move fast.

所以他們正試著快速行動。

And we know that the Foundry people are waiting a bit to see how the semiconductor overall market will evolve.

我們知道代工人員正在等待半導體整體市場將如何發展。

So you have a, I would say, natural bias of the current backlog towards Memory.

所以我想說，目前的積壓工作對記憶體有一種自然的偏見。

But that may be very short-lived and we may have Foundry coming very, very strongly in the end of Q1, Q2 etc.

但這可能是非常短暫的，我們可能會在第一季、第二季末等時候讓 Foundry 變得非常非常強勁。

And doing the same nice gains that I think we've seen in the first 2 years, where sometimes the Korea (ph) business is bigger, sometimes the Taiwan (ph) business is bigger, depending on these timings which are different.

我認為我們在前兩年看到了同樣不錯的收益，有時韓國（ph）業務更大，有時台灣（ph）業務更大，具體取決於這些時間的不同。

They work on different scales.

他們的工作規模不同。

But it is true that the memory business is a very interesting business for us.

但確實，內存業務對我們來說是一個非常有趣的業務。

We are at the high end of the -- at the [indiscernible] end of the technology curve.

我們正處於技術曲線的高端—技術曲線的[難以辨認]的一端。

We know that the DRAM people, and the SRAM (ph) people now -- sorry, and the FLASH people now, are driving the normal curve very much more aggressively than everybody else.

我們知道現在的 DRAM 人員和 SRAM (ph) 人員——抱歉，現在還有 FLASH 人員，比其他人都更積極地推動正常曲線的發展。

So clearly you will start to see the possibility for different business for us.

很明顯，您將開始看到我們開展不同業務的可能性。

One that drives every day to the next level of technology, with very, very short amortization time for them.

每天都在推動技術進入新的水平，而且攤銷時間非常非常短。

And other business, other foundries and Logic-type environments at the end, where they would go into with the more standard normal-type curve.

最後還有其他業務、其他代工廠和邏輯類型環境，他們將進入更標準的正常類型曲線。

Is it sustainable?

它可持續嗎？

Is it sustainable?

它可持續嗎？

Are you talking about 10 years or 100 years?

你說的是10年還是100年？

More 2 to 3 quarters thanks.

更多 2 至 3 個季度，謝謝。

I remember when Doug Dunn used to talk about orders and backlog in the middle of last year.

我記得去年年中道格鄧恩（Doug Dunn）經常談論訂單和積壓訂單。

He used to say that one of indicators that he took from that is utilization.

他曾經說過，他從中得出的指標之一是利用率。

And as long as they remained good, he was saying that the order outlook would be okay.

他說，只要它們保持良好狀態，訂單前景就會很好。

You are fading away.

你正在消失。

Could you speak up a little?

你能說一點嗎？

You are fading away.

你正在消失。

Sorry.

對不起。

I recall in the middle of last year, Doug Dunn used to say that you used to look at fab utilization as a good metric to look at orders.

我記得去年年中，道格鄧恩 (Doug Dunn) 曾經說過，你過去常常將晶圓廠利用率視為衡量訂單的一個很好的指標。

For the Memory segment, what would cause you to change your view or get more concerned about -- [or more conservative], that's what I was getting at.

對於記憶部分，什麼會導致你改變你的觀點或變得更加關心——[或更保守]，這就是我的意思。

It's more of the short term, 2 to 4 quarters [indiscernible].

這更多是短期的，2 到 4 個季度[音訊不清晰]。

I think what Doug says was generally is true is that this fab utilization drives this.

我認為道格所說的普遍正確的是，晶圓廠的利用率推動了這一點。

But the Memory segment, fab utilization is always high.

但記憶體領域，晶圓廠利用率始終很高。

It is run that fact [indiscernible].

這是事實[音訊不清晰]。

What is really driving this is the fact that before the necessary shrink that Eric talked about, they do need the high NA ArF tools, it's for 65 nanometer design rules.

真正推動這一趨勢的是這樣一個事實：在 Eric 談到的必要縮小之前，他們確實需要高 NA ArF 工具，它適用於 65 奈米設計規則。

And they also need our 860s for their 90 nanometer mid-critical layers.

他們還需要我們的 860 用於 90 奈米中關鍵層。

So they need to cut cost.

所以他們需要削減成本。

They need to do that through shrink.

他們需要透過收縮來做到這一點。

So we are just witnessing this change over from 200 millimeter KrF driven, now to 300 millimeter ArF driven, with KrF support in the mid-critical layers.

因此，我們剛剛見證了從 200 毫米 KrF 驅動到現在 300 毫米 ArF 驅動的變化，並在中關鍵層提供 KrF 支援。

How long is it going to take?

需要多長時間？

It's going to take as long as they feel the pressure of driving costs down.

只要他們感受到降低成本的壓力，這就會需要很長時間。

That is generally what we are seeing.

這通常就是我們所看到的。

So you could say, some people ask what bad is because the expectation -- the price curve for the year end is going down.

所以你可以說，有些人問什麼是壞事，因為預期——年底的價格曲線正在下降。

That's what the expectation is.

這就是我們的期望。

That's bad news, but it is good news because it means that they have to start pushing their costs down in their strategy.

這是壞消息，但也是好消息，因為這意味著他們必須開始在策略中降低成本。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Matthew Gill.

下一個問題來自馬修·吉爾。

Please state your company name sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Goldman Sachs.

高盛。

A question on the LCD market.

關於液晶顯示器市場的問題。

You talked a little bit earlier today in some of the analyst and the press conferences about the requirements to go in that having securing customer commitment.

您今天早些時候在一些分析師和新聞發布會上談到了確保客戶承諾的要求。

But can you talk about what the financial requirements you see for ASML as far as what you're expecting this to do to the Company margins?

但您能談談您對 ASML 的財務要求以及您預計這會對公司利潤產生什麼影響嗎？

Is this likely to be dilutive to Company margins going forward?

這是否可能稀釋公司未來的利潤率？

And if not, if you think it can actually be keeping margins flat or even be accretive, over what timescale do you think that needs to occur over?

如果沒有，如果您認為它實際上可以保持利潤率持平甚至增加，您認為需要在多長時間內實現？

Sorry.

對不起。

Can you repeat the last part of your question please?

您能重複一下您問題的最後部分嗎？

If, indeed, you do think moving into the LCD market will keep your margins at the same level as just being in the IC market or even be accretive, how long a period does that take before that comes to pass?

事實上，如果您確實認為進入 LCD 市場將使您的利潤率保持在與 IC 市場相同的水平，甚至會增加，那麼需要多長時間才能實現這一目標？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think we are concerned at all with the margin question.

我認為我們根本不關心保證金問題。

First of all because, as I said at the beginning, we expect the cost of our machine to be significantly similar, if not better, than the cost of our competitors'.

首先，正如我在開頭所說，我們預計我們的機器成本將與競爭對手的成本非常相似，甚至更好。

And we expect to have value.

我們期望有價值。

So this means that today there is a high chance that our margin will be above the current 40% that we are driving on IC lithography.

因此，這意味著今天我們的利潤率很可能會高於目前 IC 光刻的 40%。

And we expect this to be happening very, very quickly.

我們預計這會發生得非常非常快。

We don't expect to have an issue of costs at the beginning being very high and then trying to move the architecture down to get the appropriate margin, because again, it's not an area where you buy your way in.

我們預計一開始不會出現成本非常高的問題，然後嘗試降低架構以獲得適當的利潤，因為同樣，這不是一個你可以透過購買進入的領域。

You [do not starting] to price yourself low to get the business and then move your price up. [indiscernible] in an environment where you want to penetrate.

你[不會]先把自己的價格壓低以獲取業務，然後再提高價格。 [音頻不清晰]在你想要滲透的環境。

Here it's a business to business.

這裡是企業對企業。

It's a discussion with the customers.

這是與客戶的討論。

Do you want the value?

你想要這個值嗎？

Do we take the contract?

我們接受合約嗎？

Do we take the orders?

我們接受命令嗎？

Yes?

是的？

No?

不？

And these are the conditions.

這些就是條件。

I do not expect there will be dilution of margin at all.

我預計利潤率根本不會被稀釋。

Your question is extremely valid, but I won't answer it, in terms of the cost structure.

你的問題非常有效，但就成本結構而言，我不會回答。

Depending on how much investment is required, how much are we going to reduce our potential net income due to the fact that we may have to invest a bit in R&D.

根據需要多少投資，由於我們可能需要在研發上進行一些投資，我們的潛在淨利潤會減少多少。

This is clear on our agenda of doing nothing stupid.

這在我們的議程中是明確的：不做任何愚蠢的事情。

And trying to dilute net income opportunity to the minimum.

並試圖將淨收入機會稀釋到最低限度。

There are ways of doing this. 1 is we have already a fund which we have been using in the past years to finance ventures and different opportunities and things.

有一些方法可以做到這一點。 1是我們已經擁有一支基金，過去幾年我們一直在使用它來為企業和不同的機會和事物提供資金。

And this is, of course, possible for us to focus this money onto this.

當然，我們有可能將這筆錢集中在這方面。

The other option is to develop this project with the customers so that the funding is spread, in which case it becomes much more affordable.

另一種選擇是與客戶一起開發該項目，以便分散資金，在這種情況下，它會變得更實惠。

And the third opportunity, which is the one that I would go for the last, is to say it hits us a bit and we can afford it.

第三個機會，也是我最後一個機會，是說它對我們有點打擊，我們可以承受。

It's okay.

沒關係。

But if I do this it's only because we can afford this in terms of what you guys expect us to deliver in terms of net income.

但如果我這樣做，只是因為我們能夠負擔得起你們期望我們提供的淨利潤。

So the discussion will be something that should be put on the table after we have discussed with the customers, agreed with the conditions on the sign-overs.

因此，在我們與客戶討論並就簽約條件達成一致之後，討論就應該擺在桌面上。

And then at the moment we take the decision, we will clearly show you all the parameters.

然後在我們做出決定的那一刻，我們會清楚地向您展示所有參數。

Nothing will be hidden there.

那裡不會隱藏任何東西。

If we do this, it's going to be a good business decision for the future.

如果我們這樣做，這對未來來說將是一個很好的商業決策。

But it's also going to be not a stupid decision for the short term.

但從短期來看，這也不會是個愚蠢的決定。

Operator, we have time for 1 more call only.

接線員，我們只剩下再打 1 通電話的時間了。

The last question will be from -- the final question is from Mr. Orchi.

最後一個問題將來自——最後一個問題來自 Orchi 先生。

Please state your company name sir followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

My question has been answered actually.

我的問題實際上已經得到了解答。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That was easy.

那很簡單。

1 more.

還有 1 個。

Okay.

好的。

Robert Mare?

羅伯特馬雷？

Yes, just a quick question regarding currency.

是的，只是一個關於貨幣的簡單問題。

Obviously your numbers were good for the quarter.

顯然，你們這個季度的數據不錯。

Could you tell us what impact you've had in currency throughout the year and particularly in the fourth quarter and how that would have been impacted had we not had the move of the dollar versus the euro, given that a lot of your expenses, or a fairly sizeable percentage, are in euros.

您能否告訴我們您全年對貨幣產生了哪些影響，特別是在第四季度，以及如果我們沒有美元兌歐元的波動，考慮到您的大量支出，將會受到怎樣的影響，或者相當大的比例是以歐元計算的。

Yet sales, a fair amount, are in dollars.

然而，相當數量的銷售額是以美元計算的。

Nothing straight.

沒什麼直的。

The vast majority of our sales is in euros.

我們的絕大多數銷售額以歐元為單位。

Our costs are in euros.

我們的費用以歐元為單位。

And we did mention that in certain areas of Europe, the service revenue in the U.S., the revenue is dollars.

我們確實提到，在歐洲的某些地區，在美國的服務收入，收入是美元。

So then we did have an impact on a few million in the fourth quarter. €2 to €3m max.

所以我們在第四季確實對幾百萬人產生了影響。最高 200 至 300 萬歐元

But there is a positive side.

但也有正面的一面。

And that is we are sourcing more from the U.S.

也就是說，我們正在從美國採購更多產品。

We are sourcing our leases (ph) from the U.S., we are sourcing the majority of modules from the U.S.

我們從美國採購租賃（ph），我們從美國採購大部分模組。

And there we had a positive effect there.

我們在那裡產生了積極的影響。

Possibly good.

可能很好。

So overall does that net out to a relative neutral?

那麼整體而言，該淨值是否相對中性？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you operator.

謝謝運營商。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML fourth quarter and 2004 annual results conference call.

女士們、先生們，ASML 第四季和 2004 年年度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。