艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2004 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the ASML Q1 2004 earnings conference call on April 21, 2004. [Operator's instructions] I would now like to hand over the conference over to Mr. Franki D'Hoore, Director of European Investor Relations.

歡迎參加 2004 年 4 月 21 日舉行的 ASML 2004 年第一季財報電話會議。[ 操作員指示] 我現在將會議交給歐洲投資者關係總監 Franki D'Hoore 先生。

Mr. D'Hoore, you may start

德霍爾先生，你可以開始了

Ladies and gentlemen, this is Franki D'Hoore from ASML Investor Relations.

女士們、先生們，我是 ASML 投資者關係部的 Franki D'Hoore。

Thank you for participating in the ASML Q1 results conference call.

感謝您參加 ASML 第一季業績電話會議。

Joining me today are Doug Dunn, our CEO, and Peter Wennink, our CFO.

今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Doug Dunn 和財務長彼得溫尼克 (Peter Wennink)。

This call will be one hour.

這次通話將持續一小時。

We will start with one question per person in the first round, to give everybody an opportunity.

我們將在第一輪中每人提出一個問題，給每個人一個機會。

When there is time left at the end we can take your follow-on questions.

當最後還有時間時，我們可以回答您的後續問題。

Before we start, allow me to read the Safe Harbor statement.

在我們開始之前，請允許我閱讀安全港聲明。

The matters discussed during this presentation include forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties.

本簡報中討論的事項包括具有風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。

Including but not limited to economic conditions; product and pricing; manufacturing efficiencies; new products development; ability to enforce patents; availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment; trade environment, and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

包括但不限於經濟條件；產品和定價；製造效率；新產品開發；執行專利的能力；原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性；貿易環境以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的其他風險。

At this point I would like to hand over to Doug for a brief statement followed by your questions.

現在我想請道格做一個簡短的發言，然後提出大家的問題。

Thank you Franki, and welcome ladies and gentlemen to the first quarter call.

謝謝法蘭基，歡迎女士們先生們來到第一季的電話。

I just want to kick off with a few comments of my own and then we will quickly move on to the questions, which I think is the important part of the event.

我只想以我自己的一些評論開始，然後我們將快速討論問題，我認為這是本次活動的重要部分。

Just to remind you we have a web page and the slides are on the web page.

只要提醒您，我們有一個網頁，幻燈片就在網頁上。

There is also a five-minute overview from myself accompanying them.

我還附上了我自己的五分鐘概述。

From our point of view, I think we take some pride in Q1.

從我們的角度來看，我認為我們對第一季感到自豪。

It was a strong quarter for us in every sense.

從各個方面來說，這對我們來說都是一個強勁的季度。

We were very pleased with the way in which ASML performed.

我們對 ASML 的表現非常滿意。

However, even more pleased by the way in which the market responded to this growth and to our products also.

然而，更令人高興的是市場對這種成長以及我們的產品的反應。

I think that is best captured by the excellent bookings in Q1, in which we increased our backlog from 124 systems to 163 systems.

我認為第一季的出色預訂最能體現這一點，我們的積壓訂單從 124 個系統增加到 163 個系統。

Of course, we took quite a lot of those orders for the next nine months out and we will come to that shortly.

當然，我們在接下來的九個月裡接到了相當多的訂單，我們很快就會談到這一點。

One of the frequently asked questions that we have been receiving during the day is regarding the average selling price.

我們白天收到的常見問題之一是關於平均售價。

Now, I can take that one well and truly and kick it into touch, if I may.

現在，如果可以的話，我可以很好地、真實地接受這一點，並將其付諸實踐。

First of all, as you well understand, whatever we have on the backlog today to some extent predetermines our next three months out, and possibly the next six months out even.

首先，正如您所了解的，無論我們今天的積壓情況如何，在某種程度上都預先決定了我們接下來的三個月，甚至可能是接下來的六個月。

Certainly the three months out.

當然是三個月了。

Therefore, what we shipped in Q1 is what we had in the backlog at the end of the fourth quarter, and that was the mix that the customers wanted.

因此，我們第一季出貨的就是第四季末積壓的產品，這就是顧客想要的組合。

I am frankly delighted by that mix, because it was a mix of product that they quickly wanted to put into production.

坦白說，我對這種組合感到很高興，因為這是他們很快就想要投入生產的產品組合。

It was today's technology, 180nm, 130nm, i.e. 248nm wavelength technology.

就是現今的技術，180nm、130nm，也就是248nm波長技術。

Mostly into existing fabs, a lot of which are still good working eight-inch fabs.

主要是現有的晶圓廠，其中許多仍然是運作良好的八英寸晶圓廠。

And therefore, for me it was an excellent sign that the market is really booming right now, as we speak, for chips to go into DVD players and mobile phones, that can only be produced on today's designs and in today's fabs, and they are predominantly 248nm fabs and eight-inch equipment.

因此，對我來說，這是一個極好的跡象，表明市場現在確實正在蓬勃發展，對於用於DVD 播放器和行動電話的晶片來說，這些晶片只能在今天的設計和今天的工廠中生產，而且它們是主要是248奈米晶圓廠和8英寸設備。

So we shipped precisely what the customers wanted, nothing more and essentially nothing less either.

因此，我們準確地交付了客戶想要的東西，不多也不少。

That is reflected in the mix of product.

這反映在產品組合中。

That mix, of course, dictates the average selling price and what you see there is precisely what you get.

當然，這種組合決定了平均售價，而你所看到的正是你所得到的。

So I hope that you recognize that it is not an issue of pricing pressure at all, in fact just the opposite.

因此，我希望您認識到，這根本不是定價壓力的問題，事實上恰恰相反。

We are exerting pricing pressure in a positive direction.

我們正在向正面的方向施加定價壓力。

We are booking orders at a slightly more aggressive price than we were last year, because clearly the demand is much greater this year.

我們的訂單價格比去年略高，因為顯然今年的需求大得多。

So it is not an issue of pricing pressure.

所以這不是價格壓力的問題。

It is merely a direct issue of mix, driven by what you, the end consumer, wants and what our customers, the IC manufacturers, can deliver, which is eight-inch wafers based on 248nm wavelength.

這只是一個直接的混合問題，由您（最終消費者）的需求以及我們的客戶（IC 製造商）可以提供的內容（基於 248 nm 波長的 8 英寸晶圓）驅動。

That will change as the quarters go by, but we already announced to you - to ensure that you are not confused again, the next two quarters out - that our backlog for the next six months out is again dominated by today's production capacity, by 248nm systems.

隨著季度的推移，這種情況將會發生變化，但我們已經向您宣布- 為了確保您不會在接下來的兩個季度中再次感到困惑- 我們未來六個月的積壓訂單將再次由今天的產能主導，即248nm系統。

Mathematically that gives an average selling price as a price of around €7.6m for this next six-month period.

從數學角度來看，接下來六個月的平均售價約為 760 萬歐元。

That will change slightly, clearly, but basically that is going to be it.

顯然，情況會略有變化，但基本上就是這樣。

So I hope that has put that into perspective.

所以我希望這已經讓我們正確地看待這一點。

We are looking forward to a continuation of a good strong period in Q2.

我們期待第二季度繼續保持良好的強勁勢頭。

Again, pre-empting probably a frequently answered question, why is it impossible to predict precisely the bookings levels in a quarter because of the lumpy nature of our business?

再一次，先回答一個可能經常被回答的問題，為什麼由於我們業務的不穩定性質而無法準確預測一個季度的預訂水平？

We could average out and say we will book around one-to-one with our billings by units, by value as well, in Q2, could even be higher.

我們可以平均下來，說我們將在第二季度按單位和價值進行一對一的預訂，甚至可能更高。

And of course, we will let you know precisely what the number is at the end of Q2.

當然，我們會在第二季末準確地告訴您這個數字。

So I think, taking those two comments, I will just make a couple of general statements.

因此，我認為，考慮到這兩則評論，我將只發表一些一般性聲明。

We held on to our operational issues during Q1 very well.

我們很好地解決了第一季的營運問題。

Our receivables stayed well under control.

我們的應收帳款保持在良好的控制之下。

Our inventories stayed well under control.

我們的庫存保持在良好的控制之下。

We generated cash in the quarter as we promised, and we delivered the gross margin improvements in the quarter, in Q1, as we promised.

正如我們所承諾的那樣，我們在本季度產生了現金，並且我們在第一季實現了毛利率的改善。

And again, to repeat my comment from the webcast earlier, we can relatively safely predict in the second quarter another two percentage points of gross margin improvement on the first quarter.

再次重申我之前在網路廣播的評論，我們可以相對安全地預測第二季毛利率將比第一季再提高兩個百分點。

At that point I am going to cease.

到那時我就會停下來。

I think I made the points I wanted to make.

我想我已經表達了我想說的觀點。

Just let me finish with an overall comment.

讓我以總體評論結束。

The market out there is really hot and strong.

那裡的市場非常火熱且強勁。

We are taking full advantage of that.

我們正在充分利用這一點。

I think it is going to maintain hot and strong throughout this year.

我認為今年它將保持火熱和強勁。

Personally I suspect next year also, but only time will tell.

我個人也懷疑明年，但只有時間才能證明一切。

But certainly in the short term, in the next quarter or two, ASML looks forward to (I think) two good quarters.

但當然在短期內，在接下來的一兩個季度，ASML 期待（我認為）兩個好的季度。

So I am very positive about the end markets.

所以我對終端市場非常樂觀。

I am very positive about our customers, and I am extremely positive about our products and the way in which our operations have improved, and their excellence to deliver increasingly good returns.

我對我們的客戶非常積極，對我們的產品、我們營運改進的方式以及他們提供越來越好的回報的卓越表現也非常積極。

So with that I will pass over to the moderator to begin the question process.

因此，我將交給主持人開始提問過程。

Thank you sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Ladies and gentlemen, it is question time. [Operator's instructions] The first question is from Mr. John Pitzer, CSFB.

女士們先生們，現在是提問時間。 [操作員說明] 第一個問題來自CSFB的John Pitzer先生。

Mr. Pitzer, go ahead please.

皮策爾先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi, this is Seb Jekmar for John Pitzer.

是的，大家好，我是約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer) 的塞布‧耶克馬爾 (Seb Jekmar)。

Congratulations on your strong bookings for the quarter, but the question we have is - in spite of the increasing backlog, units shipped were down sequentially.

恭喜您本季的預訂量強勁，但我們的問題是 - 儘管積壓訂單不斷增加，但出貨量卻連續下降。

Can you perhaps dig a little deeper to see what is driving this?

您能否更深入地挖掘一下，看看是什麼推動了這種情況？

Was it demand [indiscernible] from customers, or is there some lead-time constraints that are limiting the number of units that are being shipped?

是客戶的需求[音訊不清晰]，還是存在一些交貨時間限制限制了正在運輸的單位數量？

And that is my question, thanks.

這就是我的問題，謝謝。

Okay, yes.

好吧，是的。

Yes, first of all, it is no secret, no surprise to the industry, that every company I know of, maybe there are some exceptions here, tend to have a good fourth quarter and a slightly weaker first quarter.

是的，首先，我所知道的每家公司（也許這裡有一些例外）往往在第四季度表現良好，而第一季略顯疲軟，這對業界來說已經不是什麼秘密，也不奇怪。

We are no exception either.

我們也不例外。

Our customers are usually closed over Christmas.

我們的客戶通常在聖誕節期間休息。

It takes them some time to open up shop again in the beginning of the year.

今年年初，他們需要一些時間才能再次開店。

And even we take a short break at Christmas to rest before we come back again, and Q1 is a short quarter.

即使我們在聖誕節短暫休息一下，然後再回來，第一季也是一個短暫的季度。

So I think they are part of the factors.

所以我認為它們是因素的一部分。

The issues regarding our ability to meet our customers' demand.

有關我們滿足客戶需求的能力的問題。

You know, it depends where you are coming from here.

你知道，這取決於你從哪裡來。

If you want to order, to take delivery of a new product, be it a new car or a new scanner tomorrow, you probably won't get one.

如果您明天想訂購、接收新產品，無論是新車或新掃描儀，您可能都買不到。

Whether it is a high-class scanner or a high-class car, you will have to wait a few weeks, and we have lead times which are real.

無論是高級掃描器還是高級汽車，您都需要等待幾週，而我們有真實的交貨時間。

And therefore, in some cases customers who have been caught out and not given us orders in sufficiently advance warning, have had to wait more than a week or two for delivery, and in fact, in some cases more than a month or two.

因此，在某些情況下，如果客戶被發現並且沒有提前足夠的時間向我們發出訂單，則不得不等待一兩週以上的交貨時間，事實上，在某些情況下，甚至需要等待一兩個月以上。

That is to be expected and that is normal, and that will continue through forever.

這是可以預料的，也是正常的，而且這種情況將永遠持續下去。

So I think the Q1 units shipped were a reflection of what the customer wanted.

因此，我認為第一季出貨的產品反映了客戶的需求。

In fact, we shipped - was it 62 units, Peter, in Q1?

事實上，我們在第一季出貨了 62 台，Peter？

Yes, we sold 58 systems, 42 new and 16 refurbished, and I think I would like to add to what you just said, Doug, is that we shipped what the customers wanted, and we basically ordered the material for those shipments about six months ago.

是的，我們售出了58 套系統，其中42 套是全新的，16 套是翻新的，我想我想補充一下你剛才所說的，道格，我們運送了客戶想要的東西，我們基本上為這些貨物訂購了大約六個月的材料前。

So six months ago - that was in the third quarter of last year - this is what our customers thought that they needed.

所以六個月前——也就是去年第三季——這就是我們的客戶認為他們需要的。

So we were not in the habit at that time of ordering more than what our customers wanted.

所以當時我們沒有訂購超出客戶需求的習慣。

So, you could say if we would have had more material, would we have shipped more in Q1?

所以，你可以說，如果我們有更多的材料，我們會在第一季出貨更多嗎？

Yes, we would have, but the simple fact is that six to seven months ago they didn't want more, so we didn't order more.

是的，我們會的，但簡單的事實是，六到七個月前他們不需要更多，所以我們沒有訂購更多。

So that puts it in perspective and I guess that will always be the case.

因此，這讓我們能夠正確看待這個問題，而且我想情況永遠都是如此。

In an upturn period you will always want the new car tomorrow and you will have wait a month or two for it, I am afraid, and that is going to be the case this time, and it is true of all equipment suppliers.

在經濟好轉時期，你總是想要明天就有新車，恐怕要等一兩個月，這次也是如此，所有設備供應商都是如此。

So, I just want to stress it was a very good first quarter from a shipment point of view.

因此，我只想強調，從出貨量的角度來看，第一季的表現非常好。

I am pleased with our performance and many of our customers actually are pleased with our performance too.

我對我們的表現感到滿意，我們的許多客戶實際上也對我們的表現感到滿意。

Next question?

下一個問題？

Thank you sir.

謝謝你，先生。

The next question is from Mr. Robert Meyer, Semiconductor Equipment.

下一個問題來自半導體設備公司的 Robert Meyer 先生。

Go ahead please, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Yes, from some other equipment providers we have heard an interesting story of changing mix between 200mm and 300mm demand.

是的，我們從其他一些設備供應商那裡聽到了一個關於 200mm 和 300mm 需求之間的組合變化的有趣故事。

Some suggesting that, due to the ramp up in China we are seeing more 200mm demand or a surge in that.

有些人認為，由於中國的成長，我們看到 200mm 的需求增加或激增。

Can you give us a little bit more granularity as to what you are seeing in demand between 200mm and 300mm?

您能否更詳細地介紹一下您所看到的 200 毫米到 300 毫米之間的需求？

Yes, we will try and help you there.

是的，我們會盡力幫助您。

By the way, you may have not looked on our web page.

順便說一下，您可能還沒有瀏覽過我們的網頁。

We do have some Powerpoint presentations which show you the backlog, that is the orders we have on the books today, based on technology, wafer size, and region also, and then usage of foundry of memory, etc.

我們確實有一些 Powerpoint 演示文稿，向您展示積壓的訂單，即我們今天在書籍上的訂單，基於技術、晶圓尺寸和區域，以及內存代工廠的使用情況等。

So, just picking a few of your points here.

所以，這裡只是挑出一些你的觀點。

The 200mm market by value for us is around 36%; in fact it is precisely 36% of our backlog by value.

200mm 市場對我們的價值約為 36%；事實上，以價值計算，這正好占我們積壓訂單的 36%。

Leaving, therefore, 64% for 300mm.

因此，為 300mm 留下 64%。

That will give you some idea of the value split between the two wafer sizes.

這將使您了解兩種晶圓尺寸之間的價值分配。

You specifically asked about China.

你特別問到了中國。

Clearly China was a big influence.

顯然中國的影響力很大。

China is now 13% of our backlog.

中國目前占我們積壓訂單的 13%。

It has never been so high, and two years ago it wasn't on the chart, and now it is bigger than Europe, in fact, when it comes to our value backlog.

它從未如此高，兩年前它還沒有出現在圖表上，而現在事實上，就我們的價值積壓而言，它比歐洲還要大。

A lot of that is eight-inch, 200mm, although there is some 12-inch coming through here, and I guess we are going to see more eight-inch fabs built in China.

其中許多是 8 英寸、200 毫米，儘管也有一些 12 英寸晶圓廠通過這裡，我想我們將看到更多的 8 英寸晶圓廠在中國建造。

We already know of several that have been signposted.

我們已經知道有幾個已經有路標。

But the main fact is that 80% of the world silicon these days is eight-inch or smaller, and if you want to move quickly into production that is where you have got to ramp up, and that is what customers are doing.

但主要事實是，當今世界 80% 的矽片尺寸為 8 英寸或更小，如果您想快速投入生產，就必須加大力度，而這正是客戶正在做的事情。

I think from a 300mm point of view, it is inevitable, just as tomorrow will come so will 300mm, and we are in the lead there.

我認為從300mm的角度來看，這是不可避免的，就像明天會到來一樣，300mm也會到來，而我們在那裡處於領先地位。

We have, I think, good penetration of most 300mm fabs.

我認為，我們對大多數 300 毫米晶圓廠都有良好的滲透力。

There are some in Japan not yet cottoned on to our product and bought, but we are hoping that they will eventually.

在日本，有些人還沒有接受我們的產品併購買，但我們希望他們最終會接受。

But outside Japan we have most fabs which are at least partially committed to our product, usually at the critical stages, critical layers.

但在日本以外，我們的大多數晶圓廠至少部分致力於我們的產品，通常是在關鍵階段、關鍵層。

So, we feel we have a very good position in 300mm, and it's the better part of our market share, in fact, this 300mm product.

所以，我們覺得我們在 300mm 領域擁有非常好的地位，而且它是我們市場份額的更好部分，事實上，就是這個 300mm 產品。

So the future bodes well for us, and it's merely a matter of time until all these existing 200mm fabs are full.

因此，未來對我們來說是個好兆頭，所有這些現有的 200 毫米晶圓廠滿員只是時間問題。

The Chinese ones will be built over the next two or three years I guess, and hopefully we will fill them as well.

我猜中國的這些將在未來兩三年內建成，希望我們也能填補這些空缺。

And in the meantime, the people who can afford and have afforded the bigger 300mm fabs will be moving into production mode with those more aggressively, and we'll see those orders increasingly coming through, and at the 193nm wavelength technology.

同時，那些能夠負擔得起並且已經負擔得起更大的 300mm 晶圓廠的人將更積極地進入生產模式，我們將看到這些訂單越來越多地通過，並且採用 193nm 波長技術。

And it reflects a little bit in our backlog today, where we have a €7.6m ASP for the next six months, and I think it is €10m or €10.7m, I believe actually, for the final quarter of this year.

這反映了我們今天的積壓訂單，未來六個月我們的平均售價為 760 萬歐元，我認為實際上今年最後一個季度的平均售價為 1000 萬歐元或 1070 萬歐元。

That will get diluted as we take more orders of eight-inch, by the way, but it tells you that we are still filling up, I am happy to say, good eight-inch fabs with 248nm wavelength product.

順便說一句，隨著我們接受更多的 8 英寸訂單，這會被稀釋，但我很高興地說，這告訴你，我們仍在填補擁有 248 nm 波長產品的優質 8 英寸晶圓廠。

So China will come, and I think that will kick in to an even higher gear next year, but with 13% of our backlog Chinese already, I am quite pleased with our penetration there.

所以中國將會到來，我認為明年將會更加迅速，但由於我們的中國積壓訂單已經達到 13%，我對我們在中國的滲透率感到非常滿意。

But were there any component supply issues related to, that might have slowed down shipments related to this?

但是否存在與此相關的任何組件供應問題，這可能會減慢與此相關的出貨量？

About a thousand actually.

實際上大約有一千。

No, to be serious on that one, and Peter gave you the real answer here.

不，說實話，彼得在這裡給了你真正的答案。

We have real lead times, and if customers do not give us at least decent warning of orders, then there is nothing we can do about it, and we're certainly not going to build speculatively every possible product we can and inflate our inventories, and not be able to sell any of it.

我們有真正的交貨時間，如果客戶沒有給我們至少適當的訂單警告，那麼我們對此無能為力，我們當然不會投機性地生產我們可以生產的每一種可能的產品並增加我們的庫存，並且無法出售其中任何一個。

So there is always going to be in an upturn stress on every supplier, whether he is supplying the paint for the covers, or a lens, or anything else for that matter.

因此，每個供應商總是面臨著上升的壓力，無論他是提供蓋子的油漆、鏡頭還是其他任何東西。

That is quite natural.

這是很自然的。

We work with them all in a very disciplined way, and we have got a balanced supply chain that is doing an excellent job.

我們以非常有紀律的方式與他們合作，我們擁有一條表現出色的平衡供應鏈。

If you look at the lead-time in which we are shipping our product, it has never been so short for the existing tools.

如果您看看我們運送產品的交貨時間，您會發現對於現有工具來說，它從未如此短。

We have taken a lot of lead time out of the existing tools.

我們從現有工具中節省了大量的準備時間。

Of course, the new tools are always longer, but our lead times have come down to [stack] lead-time quite substantially.

當然，新工具總是更長，但我們的交貨時間已大大縮短為[堆疊]交貨時間。

So I give our supply base a lot of credit for the effort that they have put into that, and we are therefore shipping much more quickly than we ever could before.

因此，我對我們的供應基地為此付出的努力給予了很大的讚揚，因此我們的運輸速度比以前快得多。

But still, the good news is that our product is so well liked that we can never totally satisfy people in the very short term, and we never can.

但好消息是，我們的產品如此受歡迎，以至於我們永遠無法在短期內完全滿足人們的需求，我們永遠無法做到。

I would like to add, Robert, that there is no difference whether [it go] in terms of a 200mm tool or a 300mm tool, when we are dealing with issues with respect to the supply chain.

羅伯特，我想補充一點，當我們處理供應鏈相關問題時，無論是 200 毫米工具還是 300 毫米工具，都沒有差別。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Matt Gable, Calypso.

下一個問題來自 Calypso 的 Matt Gable 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

I was wondering if you could talk about sequential backlog in bookings, performance in the current quarter, what you are seeing?

我想知道您是否可以談談預訂量的連續積壓、本季的業績以及您所看到的情況？

Q2?

Q2？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, well it is early days yet, but it has continued.

是的，現在還為時過早，但這種情況仍在繼續。

The upturn continues, the momentum continues.

好轉仍在繼續，勢頭仍在繼續。

There is only a couple of weeks into the quarter but still.

雖然距離本季只有幾週時間，但仍然如此。

I made a comment earlier on this call, and also on the webcast, that we think we will have strong second quarter bookings.

我早些時候在這次電話會議以及網路廣播中發表了評論，我們認為第二季的預訂量將會強勁。

And therefore, at the end of Q2, and this is always a difficult thing to judge because of when customers finally place the order.

因此，在第二季末，這始終是一件很難判斷的事情，因為客戶最終下訂單的時間。

Slip over a week into Q3 and we could miss a significant order, but at the end of Q2 I think it is a reasonable forecast to give but we expect to have a backlog at least of the same size, and possibly higher, than we have at the end of Q1.

進入第三季一周多，我們可能會錯過一個重要的訂單，但在第二季末，我認為這是一個合理的預測，但我們預計積壓訂單的規模至少與我們相同，甚至可能更高。在第一季末。

Thank you, good enough.

謝謝你，夠好了。

The next question is from Mr. Navier Purer, Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Navier Purer 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Doug, hi, good afternoon to you.

道格，嗨，下午好。

I just want to understand how much turns business potential do you still have in your capacity going forwards?

我只是想了解您未來的業務潛力還有多大？

Because obviously you have got a fairly full backlog but you are also saying lead times are decreasing, so at what point, say intra quarter, do you actually start having to turn orders away?

因為顯然你的積壓訂單相當滿，但你也說交貨時間正在縮短，所以在什麼時候，比如說季度內，你真的開始不得不拒絕訂單？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thanks Navier.

好的，謝謝納維爾。

Obviously in the quarter that we are in it is very difficult to fit anything in there that we have not already planned to turn.

顯然，在我們所處的季度，很難將任何我們尚未計劃轉向的東西放入其中。

We do plan to turn some stuff anyway, so we always have a little bit that we are planning to turn.

不管怎樣，我們確實計劃改變一些東西，所以我們總是有一點我們計劃改變的。

But looking out more to the fourth quarter, I think you can see from what we have given you in our backlog numbers, we have room in the fourth quarter, and time between now and then, to take quite a lot of orders.

但更多地關注第四季度，我想你可以從我們給你的積壓訂單數量中看到，我們在第四季度以及從現在到那時之間的時間裡有空間來接受相當多的訂單。

And the good news is that with the strength of the eight-inch, the 200mm equipment, and at a relatively matured wavelength, 248nm, therefore we enjoy much short lead times there, we can turn that between now and the fourth quarter.

好消息是，憑藉 8 英寸、200mm 設備的實力，以及相對成熟的波長 248nm，因此我們在那裡的交貨時間很短，我們可以在現在到第四季度之間扭轉這一局面。

So our ability to turn product in Q4 is still very strong, and we are taking orders right now that we will ship in Q4 without too much trouble.

所以我們第四季的產品轉產能力還是很強的，我們現在正在接受訂單，我們將在第四季度發貨，不會有太多麻煩。

Yes, some of those orders that are already, of course, under progressed state of negotiation.

是的，其中一些訂單當然已經處於談判進度。

So that will turn into orders in this month and next.

因此，這將轉化為本月和下個月的訂單。

So, yes, if you look at the turns potential in terms of the backlog, we are confident that will fill up the fourth quarter nicely.

所以，是的，如果你從積壓的角度來看轉變潛力，我們有信心這將很好地填滿第四季度。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Nicholas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicholas Gaudois 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi there.

是的，你好。

Could you give us a bit more clarity on how you see ASPs for new tools, only not total tools, but new tools evolving?

您能否更清楚地告訴我們您如何看待新工具的 ASP，不僅不是全部工具，而是不斷發展的新工具？

If you look at the backlog, I think you can triangulate that new tools ASPs for the next six months are around €9.2m to €9.3m.

如果您查看積壓訂單，我認為您可以透過三角測量得出未來六個月的新工具平均售價約為 920 萬至 930 萬歐元。

Where do you see these going into the two quarters after Q4 and then Q1?

您認為第四季和第一季之後的兩個季度這些情況會是如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, the new systems backlog is actually on €9.6m, just to mathematically correct you slightly there.

好吧，新系統的待辦事項實際上是 960 萬歐元，只是為了在數學上稍微修正你的情況。

But it was a good guesstimate, and that is on our web page, by the way, so there are no prizes for me getting that right, and it will continue to increase.

但這是一個很好的猜測，順便說一句，這是在我們的網頁上的，所以我沒有任何獎勵，而且它會繼續增加。

Many of our more advanced tools, albeit in very small quantities, are shipping in the high teens and the low twenties of millions.

我們的許多更先進的工具，儘管數量很少，但出貨量在十幾到二十幾百萬。

So that average selling price has remorsely increased, thankfully, through the life of steppers and scanners, and through the life of ASML, and will continue to march into the distance until €20m becomes a normal backlog and €30m becomes a big one.

因此，值得慶幸的是，在步進機和掃描儀的整個生命週期中，以及在ASML 的整個生命週期中，平均售價已經令人遺憾地增加，並且將繼續向遠方邁進，直到2000 萬歐元成為正常的積壓，3000 萬歐元成為大筆積壓。

Yes, and your assumption, listening carefully to what you said, is that you are trying to split the new ASP in the first six months and in the second six months.

是的，仔細聽你所說的，你的假設是你試圖在前六個月和後六個月分割新的 ASP。

And yes, your assumption, although you have mentioned a few numbers, but it is fair to say and also safe to say, that over the next two quarters the ASP will be between €9m and €9.5m, and after the next two quarters it will definitely be above the level of €10m.

是的，您的假設是，儘管您提到了一些數字，但可以公平地說，也可以肯定地說，在接下來的兩個季度中，平均售價將在900 萬歐元到950 萬歐元之間，並且在接下來的兩個季度之後肯定會高於1000萬歐元的水平。

Yes, that is exactly right, Peter, that was my assumption.

是的，這是完全正確的，彼得，那是我的假設。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Matthew Gale, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛公司的 Matthew Gale 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, I have a question for Peter just regarding margins.

是的，我有一個關於利潤的問題想問 Peter。

Looking at the margin differential between 200mm and 300mm tools, I know historically you have said that it has been as much as 10%.

看看 200mm 和 300mm 刀具之間的裕度差異，我知道您曾經說過，差異高達 10%。

I am just interested if you could give an update on where that stands.

我只是感興趣您能否提供最新情況。

And just a follow up to that is, is there any margin differential between a 248 tool and a 193 tool at this stage in your production process?

後續問題是，在您生產流程的現階段，248 刀具和 193 刀具之間是否存在裕度差異？

Let me discipline you, gentlemen.

先生們，讓我來管教你們。

One question at a time please.

請一次提出一個問題。

Well, I will comment on the 200mm and the 300mm.

好吧，我來評論一下200mm和300mm。

Yes, at one moment in time, especially last year, there was as much as ten percentage points difference.

是的，在某個時刻，尤其是去年，差距高達十個百分點。

That has significantly gone down as a result of the value proposition for our 300mm tools, so we are able to get better pricing, and also the result of the cost of goods reduction program.

由於我們 300mm 工具的價值主張，這一數字已顯著下降，因此我們能夠獲得更好的定價，也是商品成本降低計劃的結果。

So that difference is significantly lower, and towards the end of the year I expect that difference to be not very significant any more.

因此，這種差異明顯較小，而且到今年年底，我預計這種差異將不再那麼顯著。

So, yes, you are right, there is a bias towards 200mm in terms of better margin, but that gap is coming down.

所以，是的，你是對的，就更好的餘裕而言，有 200 毫米的偏差，但這個差距正在縮小。

And is there anything by wavelength?

波長有什麼不同嗎？

By wavelength, not specifically [inaudible].

按波長，不是具體的[聽不清楚]。

No, I do not think there are significant differences there, no.

不，我認為那裡沒有顯著差異，不。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

The next question is from Mr. Vander Brooken, Petercam.

下一個問題來自 Petercam 的 Vander Brooken 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

No, actually my question was on the gross margin split and it has been answered.

不，實際上我的問題是關於毛利率分割的，並且已經得到解答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question from Mr. Jean D'Anjou, Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Jean D'Anjou 先生。

Good afternoon gentlemen.

先生們下午好。

You mentioned in the past that you were expecting total capacity that could be shipped theoretically in one quarter, for new systems to be 60, 65.

您過去提到，您預計新系統理論上可以在一個季度內發貨的總容量為 60、65 個。

When do you think you will be in a position to be able to ship such a volume in a given quarter?

您認為您什麼時候能夠在給定季度內交付如此大的數量？

I think the answer, Jean, is whenever customers want them.

我想答案是，Jean，只要顧客需要就可以。

We are ready to go.

我們準備出發了。

If you look at our shipments, they are climbing nicely, new product shipments, given that (I think) a year ago we were shipping only 25 systems a quarter.

如果你看看我們的出貨量，你會發現新產品出貨量正在大幅攀升，因為（我認為）一年前我們每季只出貨 25 個系統。

We are now well above [2X] that, so it is climbing up very nicely.

我們現在遠高於這個水準 [2 倍]，所以它的上升勢頭非常好。

So, we are keeping ourselves as close to the customer demand as we can, and that 60 number we will get to whenever we have to.

因此，我們盡可能貼近客戶需求，只要有必要，就會達到 60 個數字。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Gennadin Menin with Dresdner.

下一個問題來自德勒斯登的 Gennadin Menin 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

It is a follow on to the previous question, which is - I think, Peter, you've told us earlier that - correct me if I am a little bit wrong - but for every 50 additional tools you need to ship, you need to train up another 100 people in terms of additional manpower, or something like that.

這是上一個問題的後續問題，即 - 我想，Peter，你之前告訴過我們 - 如果我有一點錯誤，請糾正我 - 但是對於您需要交付的每 50 個額外工具，您需要培訓另外100 人以增加人力或類似的東西。

I was just wondering, are you beginning to pick up any people right now for potentially higher shipments expected through second half '04 and into 2005 at that point?

我只是想知道，你們現在是否開始招募人員來應對 04 年下半年和 2005 年預計可能更高的出貨量？

What I said is for every additional start per week, which in 50 weeks is about 50 tools, we would need roughly 100-120 people extra.

我所說的是，每週每增加一次，即 50 週內約 50 個工具，我們將需要額外約 100-120 人。

We are already looking into what we should do.

我們已經在研究我們應該做什麼。

If by the end of the year we want to raise the capacity, that means that you have to hire them about six months in advance.

如果到年底我們想提高產能，這意味著你必須提前大約六個月僱用他們。

If we are going to decide to do that, then it will be based largely on contract work.

如果我們決定這樣做，那麼它將主要基於合約工作。

So we are going to look for as flexible a solution as we can get.

因此，我們將尋找盡可能靈活的解決方案。

So, yes, we are looking into that.

所以，是的，我們正在調查這一點。

Any chance of any turns --

任何轉彎的機會——

There are no follow-on questions yet.

目前還沒有後續問題。

Wait your turn; you will get the chance later.

輪到你了；稍後你會有機會的。

Thank you sir.

謝謝你，先生。

The next question is from Mr. Jay Dean with JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jay Dean 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Great.

偉大的。

Congratulations Doug.

恭喜道格。

Peter, in terms of the company's capacity in units, what is the capacity in units, assuming a 50-50 split?

Peter，就公司的單位產能而言，假設 50-50 的分配，單位產能是多少？

And is it safe to assume that you can ship, or are likely to ship, in the 60 new unit range in the second quarter?

是否可以安全地假設您可以或可能在第二季度交付 60 個新單位範圍內的產品？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Peter, I think we can both answer this.

彼得，我想我們都可以回答這個問題。

Is that Jay Deahna, by the way?

順便問一下，那是傑伊·黛娜嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, okay, hi.

是的，好的，嗨。

Thought it was.

認為這是。

I'm on a separate phone here;

我在這裡使用單獨的電話；

I didn't pick it up, Jay.

我沒有接它，傑伊。

Good to hear from you.

很高興聽到你的消息。

Yes, we can ship 60 systems a quarter, new systems a quarter, whenever we are required to do so, and that day is not far away.

是的，只要我們需要這樣做，我們就可以每季交付 60 個系統，每季交付新系統，這一天並不遙遠。

And the capacity?

還有容量？

Yes, sorry Jay, I didn't understand your question, that you are saying are you able to ship, let us say, the quoted 60 units per quarter capacity split in 50-50 already in the second quarter.

是的，抱歉傑伊，我不明白你的問題，你是說你是否能夠發貨，比方說，每季度報價 60 件的產能已在第二季度拆分為 50-50 件。

Is that your precise question?

這是你的確切問題嗎？

That was part of it but the bigger question, and if you can answer that, that would be great.

這是其中的一部分，但也是一個更大的問題，如果你能回答這個問題，那就太好了。

I am basically asking you, is it fair to assume that the company is going to ship 60 new units in the second quarter?

我基本上是在問你，假設該公司將在第二季出貨 60 台新設備是否公平？

But the second part of the question is, I am trying to figure out what your maximum capacity is.

但問題的第二部分是，我想弄清楚你的最大容量是多少。

As we roll into next year, assuming a 50-50 mix between 200mm and 300mm, would that be 300 systems in a year or how --

當我們進入明年時，假設 200mm 和 300mm 之間有 50-50 個混合，那麼一年內會是 300 個系統嗎？

Okay.

好的。

What we said is our capacity going out of this year, were we currently [asking] 60 and 65 units, and a previous caller asked the question - if you want to go from one start extra per week, which would mean an extra 50 tools, how many people would you need, and are you taking actions or are you preparing to do that?

我們所說的是我們今年的產能，我們目前[要求] 60 和 65 個單位，之前的來電者問了這個問題 - 如果你想從每週額外增加一個開始，這意味著額外的 50 個工具，您需要多少人，您是否正在採取行動或準備這樣做？

And I answered that, yes, we are preparing to do that.

我回答說，是的，我們正在準備這樣做。

So it means that 60 to 65 would get you a 240 to 260 number.

所以這意味著 60 到 65 會得到 240 到 260 的數字。

And yes, if you would start the preparation, as we do another 50 that would bring you to around 300 in that mix of 50-50.

是的，如果您開始準備，就像我們再做 50 次一樣，那麼您將在 50-50 次混合中達到大約 300 次。

We feel pretty comfortable with that.

我們對此感到很舒服。

So yes, Jay, next year we can do the 300, in answer to your question.

所以，是的，傑伊，明年我們可以參加 300 場比賽，來回答你的問題。

What would be the building capacity if you maxed out your [indiscernible]?

如果你的[音頻不清晰]達到極限，建築容量會是多少？

Sorry, would be the building capacity?

抱歉，請問是建立能力嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We basically have that.

我們基本上都有。

Were you referring to us, ASML, or to the suppliers?

您指的是我們、ASML 還是供應商？

I am referring to ASML, because let's say, for example, you had demand to build 370 systems next year.

我指的是 ASML，因為假設您明年需要建立 370 個系統。

Would you have to build a new building, or could you find a way to do that with your existing manufacturing infrastructure?

您是否需要建造一座新建築，或者您是否能找到一種方法來利用現有的製造基礎設施來實現這一目標？

No, I think in terms of square footage it is there.

不，我認為就平方英尺而言，它就在那裡。

It is a matter of adding the people and training the people.

這是一個增加人員和培訓人員的問題。

And some more capital equipment, Jay, as well.

還有更多的資本設備，傑伊。

Yes, some more capital equipment but not buildings.

是的，更多的資本設備，但不是建築物。

Would you have to build full systems in Connecticut to do that?

您是否必須在康乃狄克州建立完整的系統才能做到這一點？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

But we may choose to.

但我們可以選擇這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

The next question is from Mr. Sean Murphy, Nomura.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Sean Murphy 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Just enquiring about the proportion of business going to the IDMs, that seems to have increased strongly in the backlog.

只要詢問 IDM 的業務比例，積壓訂單中的比例似乎大幅增加。

I am wondering to some degree whether there has been a reluctance to order because of the debate about 157 versus immersion?

我在某種程度上想知道是否因為關於 157 與沉浸式的爭論而不願意訂購？

No, you are right on your observation that the IDM business has come to life during the quarter. 24% of our backlog is IDM, which is a healthy improvement over a quarter ago.

不，您的觀察是正確的，IDM 業務在本季已經開始復甦。我們的積壓訂單中有 24% 是 IDM，這比一個季度前有了顯著改善。

The reluctance of the IDM, the slowness to come to the party so to speak, is not, I think, anything to do with the 157 situation at all, or immersion.

我認為，IDM 的不情願，或者說參加聚會的緩慢，與 157 的情況或沉浸感根本沒有任何關係。

It is all to do with their own confidence, first of all, in the strength of the recovery.

這一切都與他們對自己的信心有關，首先是對恢復實力的信心。

So the good news is they are much more confident now.

所以好消息是他們現在更有信心了。

They are placing mega million dollar deals for equipment from us.

他們正在向我們購買價值數百萬美元的設備。

And secondly, the fact that they are seeing, I think, the foundry utilization increasing to pretty high levels, being easy with my words there, and that is worrying them and therefore they are saying - hey, let us now start to take some of the danger out of supply by building our own capacity up.

其次，我認為，他們看到代工利用率增加到相當高的水平，我的話很容易，這讓他們擔心，因此他們說 - 嘿，讓我們現在開始採取一些措施通過建立我們自己的能力來應對供應不足的危險。

So it is a healthy sign and nothing at all to do with immersion or 157.

所以這是一個健康的跡象，與沉浸或 157 無關。

It is just their confidence returning and foundry business working at a very high utilization factor, and being frankly less available to them.

這只是他們的信心回歸，代工業務的利用率非常高，坦白說，他們的可用性較低。

Yes, and I would like to add to that, that it is not so much 248 200mm, that they are asking.

是的，我想補充一點，他們要求的不是 248 200mm。

The IDM demand is (I would say) more focused on 193 and 300mm, which then, in terms of value, gives them a bigger part of the backlog.

IDM 需求（我想說）更集中在 193 和 300mm，就價值而言，這給他們帶來了更大的積壓量。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Ulrich Belzer with Lehman Brothers.

下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的 Ulrich Belzer 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Just wondering what split of 248 versus 193 wavelength, and eight-inch versus 12-inch tools in shipments, do you have in mind, say for Q4 of this year?

只是想知道 248 波長與 193 波長以及 8 英寸與 12 英寸工具的出貨量有何區別，您是否想到今年第四季度的情況？

And then, how do you think that split is going to look at the end of '05, which is looking out far, but your best guess would be nice?

然後，你認為05年末的分裂會如何，雖然看起來很遙遠，但你最好的猜測是好的？

Was it the unit or value split you wanted?

這是您想要的單位或價值分割嗎？

The unit split please.

請單位拆分。

I have got to do the sum on that, it is more difficult.

我必須對此進行求和，這比較困難。

Let me finish off the answer I was going to give you.

讓我完成我要給你的答案。

The value split is, as you know, two-thirds 300mm, roughly one-third 200mm, and you saw from our average selling price at the back of Q4 is loaded with the more exotic technology.

如您所知，價值分配是三分之二的 300 毫米，大約三分之一的 200 毫米，您可以從我們第四季度後面的平均售價中看到，裝載了更奇特的技術。

And therefore also, I guess, to some extent loaded with more 300mm.

因此，我想，在某種程度上，裝載了更多的 300 毫米。

But I have no idea, maybe my colleagues can rough it out what that unit split would be in Q4.

但我不知道，也許我的同事可以粗略地計算出第四季的單位分割情況。

I am not sure we know yet actually.

我不確定我們是否真的知道。

But certainly at the end of 2005 there will be a lot of eight-inch tools still sold then, but the people who have built the 300mm fabs will have filled their 200mm capacity and be absolutely purchasing, I think, exclusively 300mm.

但到 2005 年底，肯定會有大量 8 吋設備仍在銷售，但建造 300mm 晶圓廠的人們將填滿他們的 200mm 產能，我認為，絕對會專門購買 300mm。

So it is going to be switching very dramatically, maybe beginning in Q4 but certainly through 2005, towards a dominance in units for 300mm.

因此，它將會發生非常戲劇性的轉變，也許從第四季度開始，但肯定會持續到 2005 年，朝著 300mm 單位的主導地位轉變。

If I may comment a little further on that also.

我也可以對此發表進一步評論嗎？

The current split, like Doug said, in the backlog is that in terms of value, 193nm technology is about one-third and 248 is 52%.

正如 Doug 所說，目前積壓訂單中的分配情況是，就價值而言，193nm 技術約佔三分之一，248 佔 52%。

Well, although the fourth quarter still needs to be booked fully, and in 2005 the visibility, of course, is (I would say) limited.

好吧，雖然第四季度仍然需要訂滿，而且在 2005 年，可見度當然（我想說）是有限的。

I think it is safe to say that the 193nm share will go up, and it would be safe just to say that in terms of value, towards the end of the year it can grow to anywhere between 40-50%.

我認為可以肯定地說 193nm 的份額將會上升，可以肯定地說，就價值而言，到年底它可以增長到 40-50% 之間。

Whether it is close to 40% or to 50% is a bit of a guess, but it is safe to say that it will be over 40% and probably lower than 50%.

是接近 40% 還是接近 50% 還是有點猜測，但可以肯定地說會超過 40%，並且可能低於 50%。

And with respect to 200mm and 300mm, two-thirds is now 300mm, 33% is 200mm.

而對於200mm和300mm來說，現在三分之二是300mm，33%是200mm。

That will go down, it will be lower than 30% for the 200mm part.

這個數字會下降，對於 200mm 的零件來說，這個數字會低於 30%。

That is my personal expectation.

這是我個人的期望。

His question though, Peter, was units and I do not have that data here with me.

不過，彼得，他的問題是單位，而我這裡沒有這些數據。

I think we have to work from value here.

我認為我們必須從價值出發。

We have a reasonable guidance on where the ASP is going to be, so they can work it out.

我們對 ASP 的發展方向有合理的指導，以便他們能夠解決。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Johannes Reece, DIT.

下一個問題來自 DIT 的 Johannes Reece 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Maybe a question on immersion.

也許是關於沉浸感的問題。

Is it right to assume that you have no immersion tool booked so far?

假設您到目前為止還沒有預訂沉浸式工具是否正確？

And what can we expect on bookings for maybe the coming nine months?

未來九個月的預訂量我們可以期待什麼？

Okay, I will answer the first one of your questions.

好的，我來回答你的第一個問題。

We do have immersion tools booked right now.

我們現在確實已經預訂了沉浸式工具。

It is four or five and I do not quite recall which is booked right now.

是四點還是五點，我不太記得現在預訂的是哪一家。

We will ship our first immersion tools this year, and we will continue taking immersion tool orders from now on for ever I guess, at least for the next 10 years, but we are not going to tip off the competition how well we are doing there.

我們將在今年發貨我們的第一批沉浸式工具，我想從現在起我們將永遠繼續接受沉浸式工具訂單，至少在接下來的10 年裡，但我們不會向競爭對手透露我們在那裡做得有多好。

So I am not going to give any forecasts on immersion tool bookings, other than we will make lots of them.

因此，我不會對沉浸式工具的預訂做出任何預測，除非我們會進行大量預訂。

But it will be more than in the rest of the years that you have booked maybe up to now?

但到目前為止，您預訂的數量可能會比其他年份的數量還要多？

Well, that is your second question and I'm trying to be strict here.

嗯，這是你的第二個問題，我試圖在這裡嚴格要求。

I do not honestly know but I suspect it could be a similar amount again.

老實說我不知道，但我懷疑可能又是類似的金額。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Martin Chules, National City Bank.

下一個問題來自國家城市銀行的 Martin Chules 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon, a quick question.

是的，下午好，一個簡單的問題。

Any thoughts on your immersion lithography technology versus Nikon and Tokyo?

對於你們的浸沒式光刻技術與尼康和東京相比有何想法？

Could you repeat the question please?

您能重複一下這個問題嗎？

It is difficult to hear you.

很難聽到你的聲音。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I am trying to get some information on your thoughts on the immersion lithography technology that Nikon and Tokyo Electron doing some joint mass production tests currently finished.

我試圖了解您對尼康和東京電子目前完成的一些聯合量產測試的浸沒式微影技術的看法。

I was wondering if you have any comments on how the technology is playing out versus your competitors?

我想知道您對該技術與競爭對手相比的表現有何評論？

Yes, it is always hard to know what the competition is doing precisely.

是的，總是很難準確地了解競爭對手在做什麼。

They do not send us many e-mails on those things, but from our point of view we do know what we are doing precisely.

他們不會向我們發送很多關於這些事情的電子郵件，但從我們的角度來看，我們確實知道我們在做什麼。

We have processed well over 6,000 wafers full scan speed through, in a normal production tool.

我們已經在普通生產工具中以全掃描速度處理了 6,000 多個晶圓。

Most of those wafers have been at the request of customers who have come along and seen them and observed them.

大多數的晶圓都是應前來參觀、觀察客戶的要求而製作的。

Therefore, we have a working system and, as mentioned in the previous question, we have sold a handful of those already, and booked two different customers.

因此，我們有一個工作系統，正如上一個問題中提到的，我們已經出售了其中一些，並預訂了兩個不同的客戶。

So I think we are ahead of the competition significantly on our immersion capability, and we will try and maintain that lead.

因此，我認為我們在沉浸能力方面明顯領先於競爭對手，我們將努力保持這種領先地位。

It is difficult to know, because at the last conference, which people kind of strut their stuff on these things, we were the only company who could show imaging done at full scan speed, at any scan speed in fact.

這很難知道，因為在上一次會議上，哪些人在這些事情上大肆炫耀，我們是唯一一家能夠展示以全掃描速度（實際上以任何掃描速度）完成的成像的公司。

The competition showed some still imaging, which is pretty easy to do, but of course scanning at speed - when you have got water moving and the potential bubbles forming - is much more difficult.

競賽展示了一些靜態成像，這很容易做到，但當然，當水移動並且可能形成氣泡時，高速掃描要困難得多。

We showed that in great quantity of data, and have processed 6,000 or 7,000 wafers, and so far I think we are the only ones to have processed any wafers at scan speed.

我們透過大量數據展示了這一點，並且已經處理了 6,000 或 7,000 片晶圓，到目前為止，我認為我們是唯一能夠以掃描速度處理任何晶圓的公司。

But I am sure the competition will make some progress also but we are well ahead right now.

但我相信競爭也會取得一些進展，但我們現在遙遙領先。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Pry Cadiserum, Chain Capital.

下一個問題來自 Chain Capital 的 Pry Cadiserum 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi, could you just give us an update on your option program, in terms of what you are seeing currently from customers, and how that is developing?

您好，您能否向我們介紹一下您的選擇權計畫的最新情況，包括您目前從客戶那裡看到的情況以及進展如何？

We have obviously seen a bigger mix, as we said, of capacity tools.

正如我們所說，我們顯然看到了容量工具的更大組合。

I am interested to see how that is playing into the option program.

我很想知道這對選擇權計劃有何影響。

This is Peter's baby, so Peter over to you.

這是彼得的孩子，所以彼得交給你了。

Yes, I think it is over the last couple of weeks or months we have seen an increased level of attention for that program, because we personally feel that it is a good instrument to use in this industry, where it is difficult for our customers to, looking at the lead times that we are facing, 9-10 months.

是的，我認為在過去的幾週或幾個月裡，我們看到對該計劃的關注度有所提高，因為我們個人認為它是在這個行業中使用的一個很好的工具，而我們的客戶很難在這個行業中使用它。 ，看看我們面臨的交貨時間，9-10 個月。

And the visibility that they have, of three to four, that you have a tool which is called an option program.

他們擁有三到四個可見性，表明您有一個稱為選項程式的工具。

That can give them the flexibility to call off a tool whenever they want.

這可以讓他們靈活地隨時取消某個工具。

So yes, we are in very detailed discussions with a few customers to basically beef up and (I would say) improve the option program as we first had it in its more or less rudimentary form, and customers are requesting now an option program that has a little bit more flexibility in it for them.

所以，是的，我們正在與一些客戶進行非常詳細的討論，以基本上加強和（我想說）改進選項計劃，因為我們首先以或多或少的基本形式提供選項計劃，並且客戶現在要求一個具有以下功能的選項計劃：對他們來說有更多的靈活性。

And we are determining what the option price for that should be.

我們正在確定其選擇權價格應該是多少。

So it is a program that is gaining attention and momentum, and I am pleased with that and I think it will be a help for our customers.

因此，這是一個正在獲得關注和動力的計劃，我對此感到高興，我認為這將為我們的客戶提供幫助。

It will also be a help for ASML when this inevitable downturn will come.

當這種不可避免的經濟衰退到來時，這也將對 ASML 有所幫助。

Can I just clarify as opposed to asking another question?

我可以澄清一下而不是問另一個問題嗎？

Nice one.

好一個。

The option level - is that just roughly equivalent to the lens price or is it varied more [inaudible] other factors?

選項等級 - 大致相當於鏡頭價格，還是有更多[聽不清楚]其他因素的變化？

No, it depends on the fact, the price of the option is dependent on the level of flexibility that the customer wants.

不，這取決於事實，選項的價格取決於客戶想要的靈活性等級。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Tim Schufmulender, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Tim Schufmulender 先生。

Hi Doug, Peter.

嗨，道格，彼得。

Just a clarification and a question.

只是一個澄清和一個問題。

The first, you talked about 200mm shipments remaining a high percentage for the next six months, and I think you also mentioned 248nm or is there any change, given that 200mm shipments were 193.

首先，您談到未來六個月200mm的出貨量仍保持較高比例，我想您也提到了248nm或有什麼變化，因為200mm的出貨量是193。

And then the main question I had was for Peter, which was on the inventory side.

然後我的主要問題是針對彼得的，這是關於庫存方面的。

The inventory level was stable.

庫存水準穩定。

Has there been any change within that, the split between lens inventory and light source inventory?

鏡頭庫存和光源庫存之間的劃分是否有任何變化？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I will take the first part, Peter, and then-- So on the technology split by value, 193, as I think Peter mentioned this two questions ago, is exactly 30% of our backlog, and the balance is a combination of 248nm and 365nm, for 67%.

Peter，我將討論第一部分，然後——關於按價值劃分的技術，193，正如我認為 Peter 之前提到的這兩個問題，恰好是我們積壓的 30%，其餘部分是 248nm 和365nm，佔67 %。

And that reflects, therefore, what we're going to be shipping in the next six months, that kind of split.

因此，這反映了我們將在未來六個月內交付的產品，即這種分裂。

If that helps you understand what the technology split is.

如果這可以幫助您了解技術分裂是什麼。

It will richen as time goes by, to 193, but please keep in mind the processes that our customers have running right now.

隨著時間的推移，它會變得更加豐富，達到 193 個，但請記住我們的客戶現在正在運行的流程。

The chips that they have designed and got in production right now, are using either 180nm or 130nm or 200nm technology, and that is what they have to gear up to make a lot of more of this week, this month, this quarter.

他們現在設計並投入生產的晶片採用的是 180 奈米、130 奈米或 200 奈米技術，這就是他們必須做好準備才能在本週、本月、本季生產更多晶片。

And therefore, the only thing they can do is buy existing technology.

因此，他們唯一能做的就是購買現有的技術。

Not because of any limitations of mine, because of their own factory limitation.

不是因為我的任何限制，而是因為他們自己工廠的限制。

It is what the factory is designed to produce, therefore what we are seeing is - and I see this as being really good news, and I am disappointed in the way that there has been such a strange set of questions asked about our average selling price.

這就是工廠設計生產的產品，因此我們所看到的是 - 我認為這確實是個好消息，但我對人們對我們的平均售價提出了一系列奇怪的問題感到失望。

Not in this call but previously.

不是在這通通話中，而是之前。

Because what we need to see is today's product shipping.

因為我們要看到的是今天的產品出貨情況。

Today's mobile phones, today's color TVs, today's DVDs.

今天的手機，今天的彩色電視，今天的DVD。

They are only full of 248nm or 365nm processed chips.

它們只充滿了248nm或365nm加工的晶片。

So it is excellent news that we are shipping lots of these products.

因此，我們正在運送大量此類產品，這是個好消息。

It means the recovery is here, and it is strong, and it is hot, and it is today.

這意味著復甦已經到來，而且強壯、炎熱，而且就是今天。

It is not technology buys that they may want to use some time next year.

他們可能不想在明年某個時候使用科技購買。

It is stuff they want to take in to factories next quarter and have running a week later, and that is where we excel.

他們希望下個季度將其帶入工廠並在一周後投入運行，而這正是我們擅長的地方。

So that is my comment on the technology issue.

這就是我對技術問題的評論。

So, it will be rich with today's requirements, thankfully, two-thirds of it, for the next six months out.

因此，在接下來的六個月裡，它將滿足今天的需求，值得慶幸的是，其中的三分之二。

With respect to the question on lens and light source inventory.

關於鏡頭和光源庫存的問題。

The inventory stayed flat.

庫存持平。

We do not have any issues with lenses and light sources, only you could say that we could use more, given the current demand of the market.

我們在鏡頭和光源方面沒有任何問題，只是你可以說，考慮到目前市場的需求，我們可以使用更多。

There are no specific issues with respect to lenses or light source there that influence the total euro value of the inventory.

鏡頭或光源不存在影響庫存歐元總價值的具體問題。

What I can tell you about the inventory is that, with the pressure of the market right now, [leave] to returns will actually go up, because there will not be a lot of inventory idle on the factory floor.

關於庫存我可以告訴你的是，隨著現在市場的壓力，退貨率實際上會上升，因為工廠不會有很多庫存閒置。

So, but nothing specifically to mention on lens and on the [lasers].

所以，但在鏡頭和[雷射]上沒有什麼特別值得提及的。

My word on that is it's a well-balanced inventory that reflects the complete mix of modules, components and piece parts, and is therefore eminently shippable and will ship pretty quick.

我的說法是，這是一個均衡的庫存，反映了模組、組件和零件的完整組合，因此非常適合發貨，並且發貨速度很快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Andrew Griffin, Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林證券的安德魯·格里芬先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi everyone.

大家好。

Just have a question on the linearity of this year.

只是想問今年的線性度。

We've had three quarters now where your order value has been significantly higher than your sales value.

現在已經有三個季度您的訂單價值明顯高於銷售價值。

You have mentioned both that what you are shipping in Q1 was what your customers wanted, but earlier on in the call you mentioned also that there was a certain limitation of the supply chain ramp up because the pick-up really only began in orders in Q3 last year.

您都提到，您在第一季運送的產品是客戶想要的，但在電話會議的早些時候，您也提到供應鏈的成長有一定的限制，因為取貨實際上只在第三季度的訂單中開始去年。

I did not quite understand that.

我不太明白這一點。

Were you somewhat supply chain limited in Q1, and therefore should we expect reasonable sequential growth throughout the rest of the year?

第一季的供應鏈是否受到一定程度的限制，因此我們是否應該預期今年剩餘時間會出現合理的連續成長？

Or was it actually that the customers wanted as much as they got in Q1?

或者說客戶實際上想要的和他們在第一季得到的一樣多？

They would have taken more of some things.

他們會拿走更多的東西。

I am not sure it is a supply chain ramp up.

我不確定這是供應鏈的提升。

I mean there may be elements of that here and there but it is just lead time.

我的意思是，可能到處都有這樣的元素，但這只是交貨時間。

It takes a certain time to do certain things, whether it is produce a stepper or a lens, or a human child for that matter, and it is hard to compress that lead-time beyond the physical limits.

完成某些事情需要一定的時間，無論是生產步進器還是鏡頭，還是人類兒童，而且很難將交貨時間壓縮到超出物理極限。

So the issue really is not that of our ability to ramp up.

所以問題其實不在於我們的提升能力。

We can ramp up to 250, 300, 350 systems, as we mentioned earlier in this call, but we can only do that in a certain - it is fixed by the lead time of the stuff that is made for us or that we make.

正如我們之前在本次電話會議中提到的，我們可以增加到250、300、350 個系統，但我們只能在一定範圍內做到這一點- 它由為我們製造或我們製造的產品的交貨時間決定。

Therefore, I would ask you to think more about order lead times and less about ramp up capability.

因此，我要求您更多地考慮訂單交付週期，而不是提升能力。

We are not miracle makers and it does take a finite time to do some of these tasks, and they are well publicized to customers who increasingly give us - and this answers part of your question, Andrew, as well, - who increasingly give us, therefore, longer lead time orders, thankfully.

我們不是奇蹟創造者，完成其中一些任務確實需要有限的時間，並且它們已向越來越多地為我們提供服務的客戶進行了充分宣傳- 這也回答了您的部分問題，安德魯， - 他們越來越多地為我們提供，因此，值得慶幸的是，訂單的交貨時間更長。

And that is why you see the order book value, the backlog and the booking rate, increasing greater than our billing rate, because they are filling in the gaps that they have in, not just the second quarter out, but the third quarter out, and now increasingly into the fourth quarter out, recognizing the fact that lead times are real.

這就是為什麼你會看到訂單帳面價值、積壓訂單和預訂率的成長幅度大於我們的開票率，因為它們正在填補現有的空白，不僅是第二季度，而且是第三季度，現在越來越多地進入第四季度，認識到交貨時間是真實的事實。

It takes my customers three months to process and test and assemble a chip, and you can ask for it in two months if you like, you will not get it.

我的客戶加工、測試、組裝一個晶片需要三個月的時間，如果你願意的話兩個月後就可以要求，但你不會得到。

Equally well it takes me between eight and 12 months for my products.

同樣，我的產品需要 8 到 12 個月的時間才能完成。

So, when you see the orders coming in quicker than the systems going out, it is because there is an upwards ramp, and because they are placing slightly longer lead time orders, filling in the third and fourth quarter out.

因此，當您看到訂單進來的速度比系統發出的速度快時，這是因為存在上升趨勢，並且因為他們下的訂單交貨時間稍長，填補了第三和第四季度的空缺。

Okay.

好的。

You have given us some good clues, and by the way I very much appreciate you giving us that backlog ASP time split between near term and long term, that helps a lot.

您為我們提供了一些很好的線索，順便說一句，我非常感謝您為我們提供了近期和長期之間的積壓 ASP 時間劃分，這很有幫助。

Some of you guys needed it.

你們有些人需要它。

Definitely me.

絕對是我。

But you skirted around what is happening in Q2.

但你迴避了第二季發生的事情。

You mentioned the backlog is flat.

您提到積壓工作持平。

That could either mean that your orders are coming down a lot or that your sales are going up a long way.

這可能意味著您的訂單大幅下降，或者您的銷售額大幅上升。

Can you give any color or comfort on --

你能給--一些顏色或安慰嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

This is the second question, Andrew.

這是第二個問題，安德魯。

We are being very strict so far.

到目前為止我們非常嚴格。

We will just give a quick answer.

我們只會快速給出答案。

I am not going to expand on Q2 other than what we said.

除了我們所說的之外，我不會對第二季度進行擴展。

It is very hard to predict the future.

預測未來是非常困難的。

I think to say that we are going to book -- It is going to be a strong quarter, okay?

我想說我們將預訂——這將是一個強勁的季度，好嗎？

The billings will be a strong quarter and the bookings will be a strong quarter, and you have to interpret what I mean by strong there because I do not precisely know either.

帳單將是一個強勁的季度，預訂將是一個強勁的季度，你必須解釋我所說的強勁是什麼意思，因為我也不太清楚。

We have a good idea but there is a bandwidth here that we are uncertain of ourselves.

我們有一個好主意，但這裡有一個我們不確定的頻寬。

If customer X brings in a 20-system order on the last day of the quarter, you are peeved to miss it by a day.

如果客戶 X 在該季度的最後一天收到了 20 個系統的訂單，那麼您會因為錯過一天而感到惱火。

You may mark me down but I will get it a day later.

你可以給我打分，但我會在一天後收到。

So it is that kind of difficulty we have in trying to be too predictive here.

因此，我們在嘗試過度預測時遇到了這樣的困難。

So we prefer to say we will book about as much as we will bill, possibly more, and it will be a strong bookings period and a strong billings period.

因此，我們更願意說，我們將預訂盡可能多的帳單，甚至可能更多，這將是一個強勁的預訂期和強勁的帳單期。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mrs. Debby Langalan, Eindhoven Defla.

下一個問題是來自埃因霍溫德夫拉的 Debby Langalan 女士。

Go ahead please madam.

女士，請繼續。

Yes, what I wanted to know is if these strong figures have any influence on the agreement that was made at the end of February about the loss of jobs?

是的，我想知道的是，這些強勁的數字是否會對二月底達成的關於失業的協議產生任何影響？

No, the loss of the jobs was the result of the restructuring program that we announced last year.

不，工作崗位的流失是我們去年宣布的重組計劃的結果。

It had to do with the fact that we needed to lower the breakeven point of this company, and as you know, it is a very cyclical business, and we see now the clear signs already beginning of what we call the new upturn.

這與我們需要降低這家公司的損益平衡點有關，正如你所知，這是一個週期性很強的業務，我們現在看到明顯的跡像已經開始，我們稱之為新的好轉。

It will be a new downturn also.

這也將是一次新的低迷。

At that time, we have clearly committed to ourselves that we will lower the breakeven point to a level where we will not lose money, and in order for us to be able to do that we have to restructure our cost base.

當時，我們明確向自己承諾，我們將把損益平衡點降低到不會虧損的水平，為了做到這一點，我們必須重組我們的成本基礎。

That is what we did and that is what we intended to do, and that is what we will execute.

這就是我們所做的，這就是我們打算做的，這就是我們將要執行的。

What level is this breakeven point now?

現在這個損益平衡點是什麼水準？

I'm sorry, yes.

對不起，是的。

Well, one question only but I will give you a quick answer.

好吧，只有一個問題，但我會給你一個快速的答案。

It was 160 and it is coming down to 130 as we've said.

正如我們所說，之前是 160，現在會下降到 130。

It will be at 130 in the second half of this year.

今年下半年將達到130。

And we will have the next question now, please.

現在請提出下一個問題。

This year, thank you.

今年，謝謝你。

The next question is from Mr. Ali Irani, CIBC World Markets.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 全球行銷部門的 Ali Irish 先生。

Yes, good morning gentlemen.

是的，先生們早安。

This is Ali Irani.

這是阿里·伊拉尼。

I was hoping you could give us some update on your bridge tool program, and--?

我希望你能給我們一些關於你的橋樑工具程式的更新，然後——？

I missed that, on what?

我錯過了，什麼？

Could you give us an update on your bridge tool program?

您能為我們介紹一下您的橋樑工具程式的最新情況嗎？

The 200mm, 300mm --

200mm、300mm——

The XT?

XT？

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay, yes.

好吧，是的。

Yes.

是的。

Obviously the customer funds are limited and many of your customers are looking to extend their 200mm fabs some time, and Doug, one of the customers that I thought of is ST Micro, that is still tooling today two brand new 200mm fabs.

顯然，客戶資金有限，許多客戶都希望延長他們的 200mm 晶圓廠一段時間，而我想到的客戶之一 Doug 是 ST Micro，該公司今天仍在加工兩個全新的 200mm 晶圓廠。

Well, I will not comment on any specific customer, but the bridge tool (as you call it), which is what we call our XT product range, which as you imply in your question is designed for either 12-inch or eight-inch 300mm, 200mm product, is being very well received.

好吧，我不會評論任何特定客戶，但橋接工具（如您所說），這就是我們所說的 XT 產品系列，正如您在問題中暗示的那樣，它是為 12 英寸或 8 英寸設計的300mm、200mm產品，深受好評。

We have launched that product, as you saw some short while ago.

正如您不久前看到的那樣，我們已經推出了該產品。

It is getting a lot of rave reviews from the press and from customers, and I am not going to predict how successful it will be but it will be successful, and it will go into the situation where a customer who cannot yet afford the luxury of a 300mm fab can afford to extend his technology to 200mm, and wants to go down below 100nm, our feature size, will start to buy those tools and there are a lot of enquiries coming in.

它得到了媒體和客戶的好評，我不會預測它會有多成功，但它會成功，而且它將進入這樣一種情況：一個還買不起奢侈品的客戶300 毫米晶圓廠有能力將其技術擴展到200 毫米，並且想要降至100 奈米（我們的特徵尺寸）以下，將開始購買這些工具，並且有很多詢問。

Do not forget, it has the very high throughput of our Twinscan product, but at eight-inch it is a very productive tool, as well as being an exceptionally good tool for overlay and for resolution.

不要忘記，它具有我們 Twinscan 產品的非常高的吞吐量，但在 8 英寸時，它是一個非常高效的工具，也是一個非常好的疊加和解析度工具。

Just a clarification on this.

只是對此進行澄清。

In terms of timing of revenue from XT to customers for production use, could you give us an idea of this?

關於 XT 向客戶提供用於生產用途的收入的時間安排，您能否給我們介紹一下？

We are talking the second half of this year?

我們正在談論今年下半年？

We are talking about this quarter, the second quarter.

我們正在談論這個季度，第二季度。

This quarter.

本季。

Fantastic, thanks very much.

太棒了，非常感謝。

Do not build a lot of increment revenues into that tool this quarter.

本季度不要在該工具中增加大量收入。

It begins this quarter.

從本季開始。

But it is good to know that the customers are putting it into the fab.

但很高興知道客戶正在將其放入晶圓廠。

Yes.

是的。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Schapel Premanick, Soundview.

下一個問題來自 Soundview 的 Schapel Premanick 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

I do not know if this question has been asked, because I joined in later.

我不知道這個問題是否有人問過，因為我是後來才加入的。

What do you think this year your mix of ArF, [TrF] and I-line will be for the year?

您認為今年 ArF、[TrF] 和 I-line 的組合會如何？

I'm sure you have the visibility.

我相信你有可見度。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Well let me - since you missed the beginning you missed the fact that we said one question only please.

好吧，讓我來說一下——既然你錯過了開頭，你就錯過了我們只說了一個問題的事實。

You have asked your question so I will answer that one as well as I can.

你已經提出了你的問題，所以我會盡我所能回答這個問題。

Then you can come back at the end if there is time for second questions round, although we are running out of time.

然後，如果有時間回答第二輪問題，您可以在最後回來，儘管我們的時間已經不多了。

So, the backlog mix - and you can get this off our website by the way - by wavelength.

所以，積壓的混合 - 你可以順便從我們的網站上得到這個 - 按波長。

It is 33% precisely for 193, 15% precisely for 365 I-line as you may call it, and 52% for 248.

193 的精確度為 33%，365 I 線的精確度為 15%（如您所稱），248 的精確度為 52%。

And I guess that is fairly reflective of what we are going to ship in the next six months, and it will richen up towards the end of the year with 193, and next year we will see more and more 193 going into that mix.

我想這相當反映了我們將在未來六個月內發布的產品，到年底它將豐富 193，明年我們將看到越來越多的 193 進入該組合。

Lastly a question for Peter.

最後問彼得一個問題。

No, I am sorry we have one question only to start with.

不，很抱歉我們只有一個問題要開始。

Sorry, that is the rule of the game.

抱歉，這就是遊戲規則。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

The next question is from Mr. Steve Connell, Capital Group.

下一個問題來自 Capital Group 的 Steve Connell 先生。

Yes, could you compare and contrast for me how your supply chain is working this cycle compared with the last cycle, taking into account the acquisition you made of the [SPG], and how that has internationalized your supply chain, and how that changes your lens maker?

是的，您能否為我比較一下您的供應鏈在本週期與上一個週期的運作情況，考慮到您對[SPG] 的收購，以及這如何使您的供應鏈國際化，以及這如何改變您的供應鏈。鏡片製造商？

So just give me a feel for how the supply chain is working differently this cycle versus the last cycle?

那麼請讓我感受一下本週期供應鏈與上週期有何不同？

In a couple of words, or maybe it is three words, it is working better, that is three words isn't it, I guess.

用幾個詞，或者也許是三個詞，效果更好，我想，這就是三個詞，不是嗎？

And to give you a feel for, to qualify why I say that, which is a good thing to say and it is true, and you asked about the [SPG] acquisition.

為了讓你感受一下，解釋我為什麼這麼說，這是一件好事，而且確實如此，你問了有關 [SPG] 收購的問題。

Yes, it did extend our supply base.

是的，它確實擴大了我們的供應基礎。

We do now actually support ourselves with some modules.

我們現在確實透過一些模組來支持自己。

We have given ourselves a bit of relief from one or two suppliers who were not performing, quite frankly, and therefore, we took some of those modules inside as well as left them outside.

坦白說，我們從一兩個表現不佳的供應商那裡得到了一些緩解，因此，我們將其中一些模組放在內部，並將它們留在外面。

So had a dual source situation there rather than sole source, ourselves being one source and outside supply being another source.

因此，那裡存在雙重來源的情況，而不是單一來源，我們自己是一個來源，外部供應是另一個來源。

We can, therefore, make the sole source external supplier more decent and honest by our own internal benchmarking, and that has helped quite a lot.

因此，我們可以透過我們自己的內部基準來使唯一來源的外部供應商更加正派和誠實，這有很大幫助。

And it is also beginning to broaden our reach into suppliers outside the very local environment of where we are headquartered.

它也開始將我們的影響力擴展到我們總部所在地以外的供應商。

It is switching on the USA and we have an active program.

它正在美國啟動，我們有一個活躍的計劃。

It is early days yet; so do not build a lot into this for the next couple of quarters.

現在還為時過早；因此，在接下來的幾個季度中不要對此投入太多。

An active program to begin to source products from low cost parts of the world.

一項積極的計劃，開始從世界低成本地區採購產品。

Again, stretching our horizons out to Asia, for instance, but over the course to other parts of Europe.

例如，我們再次將視野擴展到亞洲，但同時也擴展到歐洲其他地區。

So, the supply chain situation is better than it has been.

因此，供應鏈狀況比以前好。

It is improving continually and I guess it always will be.

它正在不斷改進，我想它永遠都會如此。

It is bound to come under pressure because we are an outsource supplier and, therefore, most of our pressure from our customers we pass straight on to our suppliers, but we are much more in control now.

它必然會面臨壓力，因為我們是外包供應商，因此，我們來自客戶的大部分壓力都直接傳遞給了我們的供應商，但我們現在的控制力更強了。

We had a supply date, by the way, last week in which we reviewed with our suppliers our requirements, and began to make sure that they were geared up for the expansion.

順便說一句，我們上週有一個供應日期，我們與供應商一起審查了我們的要求，並開始確保他們為擴張做好了準備。

So, yes, I can say no more, it is getting better, three words.

所以，是的，我不能再說了，一切都在變得更好，三個字。

How has it effected your cycle time, Doug?

道格，它對您的週期時間有何影響？

It has come down, and all we have to measure from really is, well, we can measure 12-inch, although eight-inch cycle times are down substantially from last time round. 12-inch not so much, 12-inch tends to be leading edge technology as well.

它已經下降了，我們真正需要測量的是，我們可以測量 12 英寸，儘管 8 英寸的周期時間比上一輪大幅下降。 12 吋不僅如此，12 吋也往往是領先的技術。

So although our internal cycle time in ASML has come down quite substantially, from actually 26 weeks down to single digits almost now, still some of the modules and components, which are getting increasingly more complex with 193 and immersion and so on, do tend to neutralize the benefits our suppliers would be bringing in.

因此，儘管我們ASML 的內部週期時間已經大幅下降，從實際上的26 週降至現在的個位數，但仍然有一些模組和組件，由於193 和沈浸式技術等變得越來越複雜，確實傾向於抵消我們的供應商將帶來的好處。

So they get better and then we ask them to do an even more complex job, which resets them back to where they were again.

所以他們會變得更好，然後我們要求他們做更複雜的工作，這會讓他們再次回到原來的狀態。

So, 200mm is a tough one.

所以，200mm是一個很難的距離。

It is improving but we are loading our suppliers up with some pretty complicated modules, and therefore it is not fair at this stage to expect miracles today.

它正在改進，但我們正在向我們的供應商加載一些相當複雜的模組，因此在現階段期望今天出現奇蹟是不公平的。

They will come tomorrow I think.

我想他們明天就會來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Stuart Adrian, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Stuart Adrian 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Just squeaked in at the end there.

就在最後吱吱叫了一聲。

Just a quick question and it is unfortunately on the ASP, but just in terms of - you were reasonably upfront through the summer of last year in saying that you had priced, Doug, I think it's particularly the [Inotera] business, relatively aggressively.

只是一個簡單的問題，不幸的是，這是關於 ASP 的，但就 - 去年夏天你相當坦率地說，你已經定價了，道格，我認為這尤其是 [Inotera] 業務，相對積極。

In addition to that, are there other volume purchase agreements that we should expect to roll off, that were done at the bottom of the cycle, at some point in the first half of this year, that automatically will give you a better average selling price than some of your bigger customers?

除此之外，是否還有其他我們應該預期會推出的批量購買協議，這些協議是在今年上半年的某個時間週期的底部完成的，這會自動為您帶來更好的平均售價比你的一些大客戶？

In case of any customers listening into this, we are always extremely aggressive with all our customers.

如果有任何客戶聽到這一點，我們總是對所有客戶都非常積極。

They get excellent pricing from us.

他們從我們這裡得到了優惠的價格。

But it is a fact that the product mix changes and the environment changes, and the volume changes, and some go up and some go down.

但產品結構變了，環境變了，體量變了，有的上升，有的下降，這是事實。

So as we improve our products with better packages, better options, and so on, better throughput, better overlay, etc., etc., we add value.

因此，當我們透過更好的包裝、更好的選項等、更好的吞吐量、更好的覆蓋等來改進我們的產品時，我們就增加了價值。

And therefore, we add cost, and also we add to the price for that.

因此，我們增加了成本，也增加了價格。

So that drives the price upwards.

因此這會推動價格上漲。

The fact that the market is stronger right now means that customers are much more focused on delivery than they were last year, when any quarter would do last year.

事實上，目前市場更加強勁，這意味著客戶比去年（去年任何季度都會如此）更加關注交付。

This year it is 'can you do it next week' type of thing.

今年的主題是「你下週能做嗎」之類的事情。

Much more focus on delivery and slightly less on price, but only slightly less.

多專注於交付，稍微減少對價格的關注，但也只是稍微減少一點。

So that gives us an advantage to package the product up and leverage the price a little bit.

因此，這給了我們包裝產品並稍微利用價格的優勢。

Yes, there are some contracts we took last year for last year's product, which was less rich in some of the features, and at a time when the market was more stressed, which we are living off and honoring right now.

是的，去年我們為去年的產品簽訂了一些合同，去年的產品在某些功能上不太豐富，而且當時市場壓力更大，我們現在靠這些來生存並兌現。

The replacements for those will not be the same products because the products march on with improvements.

這些產品的替代品不會是相同的產品，因為產品會不斷改進。

Therefore, the price will be different next time round.

因此，下一輪的價格將會有所不同。

And it is a different environment also.

這也是一個不同的環境。

It is now more of a seller's environment, less of a buyer's environment.

現在更多的是賣方環境，而不是買方環境。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Francois Millier, Cazenove.

下一個問題是來自卡澤諾夫弗朗索瓦·米利爾先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hello, good afternoon.

你好，下午好。

I have got a question about the orders you placed for critical components.

我對你們關鍵部件的訂單有疑問。

Say at the end of a quarter you have got 100 units, new units, in your backlog.

假設在季度末您的積壓訂單中有 100 個單位，即新單位。

How many sets of critical components are you ordering for those machines?

您將為這些機器訂購多少套關鍵零件？

It is something like 50, 75, 100?

是50、75、100之類的嗎？

Well, if we have orders, all those orders are covered by orders for the components that go into them, okay?

好吧，如果我們有訂單，所有這些訂單都包含在其中的組件訂單中，好嗎？

All of them.

他們全部。

So if we have a good order, for us an order must pass certain criteria before it is recognized as an order, and then we will schedule it and at that point, if we have not got material on order to cover it, we will place it.

因此，如果我們有一個好的訂單，對我們來說，訂單必須通過某些標準才能被識別為訂單，然後我們將安排它，此時，如果我們沒有訂單材料來覆蓋它，我們將放置它。

So everything is covered by order.

所以一切都在秩序之中。

Although, just picking up some of your nuance there, for instance, some of the lead times for some of the screws is two weeks, and for other things can be nine months.

不過，例如，只是了解一些細微差別，某些螺絲的交貨時間是兩週，而其他東西的交貨時間可能是九​​個月。

So we do not order the screws until we need them.

因此，直到需要時我們才會訂購螺絲。

So everything essentially is covered.

所以一切基本上都被涵蓋了。

So for 100 systems, we will order 100 long lead items today and then, as the time goes by, we will order the less lead time items, and finally the screws and finally the paint, and then we finally ship it.

因此，對於100 個系統，我們今天將訂購100 個長交貨期項目，然後，隨著時間的推移，我們將訂購交貨期較短的項目，最後是螺絲，最後是油漆，然後我們最終發貨。

And in some cases if we - because there is a risk in every business and we are prepared to take some risk here - if we know that there are orders about to come through the system of our customers, we will occasionally order those in advance in anticipation of that order, knowing full well that if the order fails to come through there are probably five other customers out there who will take it in a decent timeframe.

在某些情況下，如果我們 - 因為每項業務都存在風險，並且我們準備在這裡承擔一些風險 - 如果我們知道有訂單即將通過我們客戶的系統發送，我們有時會提前訂購這些訂單對該訂單的預期，充分了解如果訂單未能完成，可能還有其他五個客戶會在適當的時間內接受該訂單。

Because if I am looking at the Q3 backlog for new units, it was something like 80.

因為如果我查看第三季新單位的積壓訂單，就會發現大約有 80 個。

Now I am wondering why, when it is going to be 80 shipments?

現在我想知道為什麼，當它要達到80個出貨量時？

Where do you get the Q3 backlog for 80 from?

您從哪裡獲得第 3 季 80 的積壓訂單？

That is not a number we have ever published.

這不是我們曾經公佈過的數字。

We do not publish quarterly backlog, we give you 12-month backlog, and we tell you how much is required within six months.

我們不公佈季度積壓訂單，我們給您 12 個月的積壓訂單，並告訴您六個月內需要多少。

Okay?

好的？

So you never got 80 for a quarterly backlog.

所以你永遠不會得到 80 個季度積壓訂單。

You maybe saw a backlog of 80 systems for six months out, but I don't know where you-- So your numbers I do not recognize at all, we do not give quarterly backlog information.

您可能會看到 80 個系統積壓了六個月，但我不知道您在哪裡 - 所以您的數字我根本不認識，我們不提供季度積壓資訊。

Can I help you any more with that or are you--?

我可以再幫你嗎，還是你──？

Maybe you could call Franki back on that one because you are obviously misunderstanding the information we give you?

也許你可以回電給法蘭基，因為你顯然誤解了我們給你的訊息？

Okay.

好的。

The next question is from Mr. Niels Sweck, Theodoor Gillisen.

下一個問題來自 Niels Sweck 先生、Theodoor Gillisen。

My question is actually more of a clarification issue.

我的問題實際上更多的是一個澄清問題。

Is it correct that Doug mentioned an ASP of €7.6m during his introduction for the next six months?

Doug 在其介紹中提到未來六個月的平均售價為 760 萬歐元，對嗎？

And if so, what does that exactly relate to?

如果是這樣，這到底與什麼有關？

Is that 248nm systems or?

是248nm系統還是？

Well, an average selling, so you are right, €7.6m is what we published in the press release.

嗯，平均銷量，所以你是對的，760 萬歐元是我們在新聞稿中發布的。

It is what is on our web page and it was on my five-minute webcast, and it is also, I mentioned earlier in this conversation, it is what the average selling price is for all the orders we have on the books for the next six months out.

這是我們網頁上的內容，也是我五分鐘網絡廣播中的內容，而且，我在本次對話前面提到過，它也是我們下一個賬簿上所有訂單的平均售價。六個月後。

That contains I-line, 248, 193, 200mm, 300mm, refurbished tools, secondhand tools, everything.

其中包含 I-line、248、193、200mm、300mm、翻新工具、二手工具，應有盡有。

It is an average.

這是一個平均值。

It is an average of everything in fact?

事實上它是一切的平均值？

Yes, that is what ASP means, average selling price.

是的，這就是ASP的意思，平均售價。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Brendan, Eden Events.

下一個問題來自 Eden Events 的 Brendan 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You mentioned that for the next six months we get cell phones, DVDs, and stuff like that.

你提到在接下來的六個月裡我們會得到手機、DVD 之類的東西。

They are full of 248nm, 365nm produced parts, and people are ordering roughly two-thirds of the backlog to produce more of that stuff.

它們充滿了 248 奈米、365 奈米生產的零件，人們正在訂購大約三分之二的積壓訂單來生產更多的此類產品。

Can you explain what happens when all the cell phones now have 90nm produced parts, 193nm lithography parts?

您能否解釋一下，當現在所有手機都採用 90 奈米生產零件、193 奈米光刻零件時會發生什麼？

There are critical layers and all that stuff but put some color on the transition here, how people deal with this stuff that they're ordering like crazy now?

有關鍵層和所有這些東西，但在這裡的過渡上加上一些顏色，人們如何處理他們現在瘋狂訂購的這些東西？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, good question.

好吧，好問題。

It's a good question, and indeed, most of the stuff of today was designed, the chips were designed a year ago, and therefore it is a year old technology.

這是一個很好的問題，事實上，今天的大多數東西都是設計出來的，晶片是一年前設計的，因此它是一項已有一年歷史的技術。

It is 248 and it's basically, and it's I-line as well.

基本上是248，而且也是I線。

There is some 193 in there, one or two critical layers in some products, but basically when you need 193 you are below 100nm very crudely.

那裡有一些 193，在某些產品中有一兩個關鍵層，但基本上當你需要 193 時，你就非常粗略地低於 100nm。

For a logic device below 130nm, for a memory device below 110nm.

對於130nm以下的邏輯元件，對於110nm以下的儲存裝置。

So once you get into the 200nm feature size, you want to go to 193.

因此，一旦進入 200nm 特徵尺寸，您就會想要達到 193。

There are some slight variations on that but let us generalize a bit here.

雖然有一些細微的差異，但讓我們在這裡概括一下。

And that is going to be the next generation chip set for everything, whether it is a nan flash, DRAM, or the next generation mobile phone with multimedia.

這將成為適用於一切的下一代晶片組，無論是奈米快閃記憶體、DRAM，還是具有多媒體功能的下一代手機。

It is going to be at 90nm, and you are going to see, therefore, four or five, if not more, critical layers at 193 wavelength technology and that is how it begins to creep in.

它將採用 90nm，因此，您將看到 193 波長技術的四到五個（如果不是更多的話）關鍵層，這就是它開始滲透的方式。

That is how it begins to move in.

這就是它開始移動的方式。

And as you go down to 70nm you are probably going to find that your critical layers and your intermediate layers, i.e. 20 mask layers are at 193, and ultimately, when you get down to 45nm, all your layers are at 193 or with immersion as well.

當你下降到 70nm 時，你可能會發現你的關鍵層和中間層，即 20 個掩模層都處於 193，最終，當你下降到 45nm 時，所有層都處於 193 或沉浸式出色地。

And that transition will come through the next chipset redesign, and they are under way right now.

這種轉變將透過下一個晶片組重新設計來實現，而且現在正在進行中。

They are on the drawing boards right now and some are going into other production right now for some suppliers, but obviously suppliers cover a range of speeds.

它們現在正處於繪圖板上，有些正在為一些供應商投入其他生產，但顯然供應商涵蓋了一系列速度。

Some are early with it, and some are a little bit later.

有些人很早就開始了，有些人則稍晚一些。

So I believe that 193 will increasingly become impactful on our customers, and therefore ourselves, towards the backend of this year and all the way through next year.

因此，我相信從今年年底一直到明年，193 對我們的客戶以及我們自己的影響力將越來越大。

I think next year will probably be the acceleration year for it.

我認為明年可能是它的加速年。

I think at this point we are probably ready for one last question.

我想現在我們可能已經準備好回答最後一個問題了。

I thought that was the last question, that is good.

我認為這是最後一個問題，很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The last question is from Mr. James Fontanelli, Arete Research.

最後一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 James Fontanelli 先生。

Go ahead please sir.

先生，請繼續。

Hi.

你好。

I was just wondering whether you had any further thoughts on the potential for you guys entering the LCD stepper market?

我只是想知道你們對於進入 LCD 步進機市場的潛力是否有進一步的想法？

Yes, we have had a lot of thoughts on that over the years, Jim, but we have not concluded those thoughts yet in a form that we are prepared to talk about.

是的，吉姆，多年來我們對此有很多想法，但我們還沒有以我們準備討論的形式總結這些想法。

And therefore, I am afraid you will have to be a little bit patient a little bit longer to decide if we do or we do not.

因此，恐怕您需要再多一點耐心來決定我們是否要這樣做。

Is there a timeframe on that do or do not?

有做或不做的時間表嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And what is it?

還有，這是什麼？

That is our timeframe.

這就是我們的時間表。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

It is a pleasure.

我很樂意不客氣。

All right.

好的。

So at this point we would like to thank everybody for listening into this call, and we'd like to conclude it at this point.

在此，我們要感謝大家收聽本次電話會議，我們想就此結束。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks a lot for the contributors, appreciate your questions and your patience, thank you.

非常感謝貢獻者，感謝您的提問和耐心，謝謝。