艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2003 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML annual results 2003 conference call on January 15, 2003. Throughout today's presentation all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please press the star key followed by zero on your push-button phone for operator assistance.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2003 年 1 月 15 日 ASML 2003 年度業績電話會議。在今天的演講過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。演示結束後將有機會提問。如果任何參與者聽不清楚會議內容，請按按鍵電話上的星號鍵，然後按零，以尋求接線員的協助。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Dunn. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給道格‧鄧恩先​​生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you Janet. Just to correct your eloquent voice, it is actually January 2004 but never mind. Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for listening. I am going to actually turn you over to Craig DeYoung who will just read out to you the first paragraph, or the first two pages of Winnie the Pooh. Sorry, the Safe Harbor statement. Craig, over to you.

謝謝你，珍妮特。只是為了糾正你的雄辯的聲音，它實際上是 2004 年 1 月，但沒關係。女士們、先生們，謝謝大家的聆聽。我實際上要把你們交給 Craig DeYoung，他只會給你們讀出小熊維尼的第一段或前兩頁。抱歉，安全港聲明。克雷格，交給你了。

Actually, I would also like to remind you of the protocol for the call. The timing of the call will be one hour and with us is Doug Dunn and Peter Wennink to answer your questions. We ask that you confine your questions to one with one small follow-up please. So we can get the maximum number of callers in as we can.

實際上，我還想提醒您通話的禮儀。通話時間持續一小時，Doug Dunn 和 Peter Wennink 將回答您的問題。我們要求您將問題限制在一個範圍內，並附上一個小的後續問題。這樣我們就可以盡可能地接收盡可能多的來電者。

So, having said that, I will remind you that the matters discussed during this presentation include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic conditions; product and pricing; manufacturing efficiencies; new product developments; ability to enforce patents; availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment; trade environment and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

所以，話雖如此，我要提醒您，本次演示中討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於經濟狀況；產品和定價；製造效率；新產品開發；執行專利的能力；原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性；貿易環境以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的其他風險。

I missed that Craig, could you repeat?

我錯過了，克雷格，你能重複一遍嗎？

I will get with you after the meeting. Having said that, let us open it up for the first question. Thanks.

會議結束後我會和你聯絡。話雖如此，讓我們開始討論第一個問題。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Actually, if I may, could I just make two or three sentences just before we begin, just maybe to give the questioners time to gather their thoughts. So, we are reporting on the fourth quarter and the full year of 2003.

實際上，如果可以的話，我可以在開始之前說兩三句話，也許可以讓提問者有時間整理一下思路。因此，我們正在報告 2003 年第四季和全年的情況。

Indeed, a year ago it was a pretty desperate climate for the industry, and those of us who remember that very well, I guess. What a difference a year makes. Here we are today with a growing backlog rather than a decreasing one.

確實，一年前，這個產業的環境相當嚴峻，我想，我們當中那些人對此記憶猶新。一年的變化真大。如今，積壓訂單不但沒有減少，反而增加了。

A company which has moved from losses into profit in the fourth quarter, and that trend will continue. A company which was committed to having a cash balance of $1bn by this point in time has achieved it. Sorry, euros, thank you Stuart. A company which committed to taking its working capital down and has done so substantially. A company which also committed introducing a breathtaking range of new products, unequalled before, and we have done that also.

該公司第四季已轉虧為盈，這一趨勢也將持續。一家公司承諾在此時間點之前擁有 10 億美元的現金餘額，現在已實現這一目標。抱歉，歐元，謝謝你斯圖爾特。承諾減少營運資本並已大幅削減的公司。該公司也致力於推出一系列令人驚嘆的、前所未有的新產品，我們也這麼做了。

I remind you the fact that we have introduced and taken the first order for an immersion tool, that we have shipped the first two [fill] 157 tools into development centers for customers to evaluate and to learn the techniques for the eventual use of 157, probably as an immersion technology. And we maintain our leadership position in development of of EUV. And, of course, when it comes to volume manufacturing, we are a world leader in the shipments of 193 tools destined for real production environments.

我提醒您，我們已經推出並獲得了第一份浸入式工具的訂單，我們已經將前兩台 [填充] 157 工具運送到開發中心，供客戶評估和學習最終使用 157 的技術，可能作為浸入式技術。我們在 EUV 開發方面保持領先地位。當然，在大量生產方面，我們在向實際生產環境運送 193 種工具方面處於世界領先地位。

So, a very, very difficult year, the worst year ever in the industry, but fortunately saved very much by the fourth quarter, which showed a breathtaking turnaround, and one that I think is built on very, very firm foundations. Therefore, we can look forward to four or six or eight quarters of sustained solid growth.

所以，這是非常非常困難的一年，是該行業有史以來最糟糕的一年，但幸運的是，到第四季度，我們節省了大量資金，實現了驚人的好轉，我認為這是建立在非常非常堅實的基礎之上的。因此，我們可以期待未來四個、六個或八個季度持續穩健成長。

And, believe me, I cannot tell you how pleasant it is for me to be able to say that to you. So, given that small preamble showing where I am coming from on this, I will now turn it over to your worthy selves for the torturous questions I am sure you are going to put to myself and my colleagues here.

相信我，我無法形容能夠對你們說出這句話我有多高興。因此，鑑於這個簡短的序言表明了我對此的看法，現在我將把這個問題交給你們來回答那些令人痛苦的問題，我相信你們會向我和我的同事提出這些問題。

[Operator instructions]

[操作員說明]

The first question comes from Mr. Jay Deahna. Please state your company name followed by your question.

第一個問題來自 Jay Deahna 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

That would be Jay Deahna with JP Morgan. Doug, it is unfortunate that the majority of your tenure has been downturn-related. On the other hand, congratulations on keeping up the product development commercialization excellence while transitioning the company into a focused operating and financially managed operation.

這個人就是摩根大通的傑伊‧迪阿納 (Jay Deahna)。道格，很遺憾，您任職期間的大部分時間都與經濟衰退有關。另一方面，恭喜您在將公司轉型為專注營運和財務管理的公司的同時，保持了產品開發商業化的卓越性。

Thanks Jay. That was not a question, but I appreciate your words. I am sure as the years go by my successor will do even better.

謝謝傑伊。這不是一個問題，但我很欣賞你的話。我相信隨著時間的推移，我的繼任者會做得更好。

Here are the questions. First of all, in light of the fact that you are seeing, I guess you could say, a greater than expected surge in 200mm demand. Does that change your peak unit expectation for the cycle? Do you still think it’s in the 700/800 range? Where do you think it is for the peak for the cycle?

以下是問題。首先，鑑於您所看到的事實，我想您可以說 200mm 的需求成長幅度超出了預期。這會改變您對該週期的峰值單位預期嗎？您還認為它在 700/800 範圍內嗎？您認為週期的頂峰在哪裡？

And then secondly, what is the timing now, do you expect the timing to get to breakeven at 130 units and is that all new systems only?

其次，現在的時間是什麼時候？您是否預計在 130 個單位時就能達到收支平衡？而且這是否僅限於新系統？

Well, I will answer your questions in reverse because that is easier. The 130 breakeven point, Jay and other guys and girls on the line, is new systems only, yes. When we will get to that, I will not be specific to the month or quarter but this year, 2004, we will pass through that, down to that barrier.

好吧，我會反過來回答你的問題，因為這樣比較容易。130 的損益平衡點，Jay 和其他在線的男孩女孩，只是新系統，是的。當我們達到這個目標時，我不會具體說明是哪個月份或哪個季度，但今年，也就是 2004 年，我們將會突破這個障礙。

First half or second half, Doug?

上半場還是下半場，道格？

It is going to be second half, Jay, okay. I think, to be honest, there is a slight chance in Q2, but most likely second half. It is a pretty imprecise thing to stab at. We are looking at our programs that we have on various items, second half, maybe end of Q3.

這將是下半場，傑伊，好的。老實說，我認為第二季有一點機會，但最有可能的是下半年。這是一件不太精確的事。我們正在研究針對各種項目的計劃，可能是下半年，也許是第三季末。

And only the Dutch part, because we have finalized some of it.

而且只有荷蘭語部分，因為我們已經完成了其中的一部分。

Well, the 130 applies to the world, unfortunately. Your first question was the number of units for the next peak, right?

不幸的是，130 適用於全世界。您的第一個問題是下一個高峰的單位數量，對嗎？

New units, I guess, right?

我想是新單位吧？

New units. Okay that is fine. And you actually gave a pretty good answer yourself, which I would expect of you, actually. 700-ish, I guess, could be the next peak. Some would have it at 650, some at, I guess, 800, and I guess that is the respectable range. The next peak I would anticipate being 2005. It will not reach those levels this year. I think there is not the impetus yet to get us up there. Nor is there, perhaps, the capacity with the suppliers around in a balanced way for all the equipment that will go to make up the equivalent in implanters and tracks and other things as well.

新單位。好的，沒問題。事實上你自己也給了一個很好的答案，事實上這也是我所期待的。我猜，700 左右可能是下一個高峰。有些人會把它定為 650，有些人會，我想，800，我想這是一個可觀的範圍。我預計下一個高峰是 2005 年。今年還達不到這些水準。我認為目前還沒有足夠的動力讓我們達到這個目標。或許，供應商也沒有足夠的能力以均衡的方式供應所有用於製造等效注入機、軌道和其他設備的設備。

So that will be 2005 number in my opinion, Jay. And you probably got it about right, as good as I can guess as the same number actually. And to pre-empt, perhaps, part of your question, therefore we can get there. We can do our fair share. You can judge yourself our market share. We are roughly 40% by volume today. We can get there.

所以，在我看來，這將是 2005 年的數字，傑伊。你可能猜對了，實際上我猜的數字是一樣的。並且也許可以預先回答您提出的問題的一部分，這樣我們就可以到達那裡。我們可以盡自己的一份心力。您可以自己判斷我們的市場佔有率。目前我們的銷量大約是 40%。我們能到達那裡。

You also asked the mix between 200mm and 300mm. That is a tough one. I think right now we are seeing a lot of 200mm because the capacity exists and it is easy to switch on. It’s existing fabs that are working well, so a bang a few more tools in to get more output. It is also why the refurbished market is pretty strong just now.

您還詢問了 200mm 和 300mm 之間的混合。這是一個棘手的問題。我認為現在我們看到很多 200 毫米，因為容量存在並且很容易切換。現有的晶圓廠運作良好，因此只需增加一些工具即可獲得更高的產量。這也是為什麼現在翻新市場相當強勁的原因。

I think that is going to change some time in this year, probably in the second half, as all that refurbished stuff will dry up because people want to use it for volume, not to sell it on to somebody else. The 200mm spare space will begin to dry up to some extent, not totally obviously. And people will feel more confident to go populate all the 300mm fabs which are currently only running at 20% of their capacity, their shells, right now and relatively empty shells. So, I think we are going to see a change in mix towards the end of this year, as 300mm starts to pick up the slack, so to speak, once we have exhausted the 200mm expansion.

我認為這種情況在今年某個時候會有所改變，可能是在下半年，因為所有翻新的東西都會枯竭，因為人們想要大量使用它，而不是把它賣給別人。200mm的備用空間會開始在某種程度上枯竭，但並不十分明顯。人們會更有信心去填充所有 300 毫米晶圓廠，這些晶圓廠目前僅以 20% 的產能運行，現在的廠房相對空曠。因此，我認為我們將在今年年底看到組合的變化，因為一旦我們用盡了 200 毫米的擴展，300 毫米就會開始彌補不足。

That's great, thanks very much

太好了，非常感謝

The next question comes from Mr. John Pitzer. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

下一個問題來自約翰‧皮策先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it is Credit Suisse First Boston. Doug, you started to answer my question, talking about the mix between new tools and used tools in the fourth quarter. Do you expect that mix to be about the same going into Q1? And can you talk about overall order trends that you see going into the first quarter of 2004?

是的，是瑞士信貸第一波士頓。道格，你開始回答我的問題，談論第四季新工具和舊工具的混合。您預計第一季的混合情況會大致相同嗎？您能談談您認為 2004 年第一季的整體訂單趨勢嗎？

I think the Q1 mix, John, just to be precise there. It is difficult to guess much beyond Q1. Q3 and Q4 are still unknowns and you heard my comment there. I think the Q1 mix will be similar, and there will be a fair mix of used tools in there. We expect, in fact, in Q1 in general terms to kind of beat the usual trend where Q1 is a low bookings quarter.

我認為 Q1 組合，約翰，準確地說是這樣的。很難猜測第一季之後的情況。Q3 和 Q4 仍然未知，您聽到了我的評論。我認為 Q1 的組合將會類似，而且其中將有相當多種使用的工具。事實上，我們預計第一季的預訂量總體將超過通常的趨勢，即第一季是預訂量較低的季度。

I would stick my neck out a little bit here and suggest that we can probably see the backlog increase in Q1, both in units and in value. Whether you measure the value in euros or dollars is up to you. I would take euros because that is a more conservative view.

在這裡我想冒點險，我們可能會看到第一季的積壓訂單數量和價值都有所增加。是否用歐元或美元來衡量價值取決於您自己。我會選擇歐元，因為這是一種更保守的觀點。

So, I think that Q1 is going to be a pretty good booking period because of the momentum that we see sustained through the Christmas break and into January. I could be wrong there, but I think we are going to buck the trend and see good growth-- Well, not good growth, modest but positive growth in Q1 on the bookings front.

因此，我認為第一季將是一個非常好的預訂期，因為我們看到這種勢頭持續了整個聖誕假期和一月份。我可能錯了，但我認為我們將逆勢而上，看到良好的增長——嗯，不是良好的增長，而是第一季預訂量方面的適度但積極的增長。

And then, Doug, could you speak a little bit about the 193 immersion tool? When do you think you will see competitors into the marketplace? My guess is for about the first half of this year you will be the sole provider. How many units do you think you can book on the 193 immersion tool? And can you talk a little bit about the ASP increase you are getting from 193 dry to 193 immersion?

然後，Doug，您能否簡單談談 193 浸入式工具？您認為什麼時候會看到競爭對手進入市場？我猜今年上半年左右你會是唯一的供應商。您認為您可以在 193 浸入式工具上預訂多少個單位？能否稍微談談從 193 乾法到 193 浸法的 ASP 成長？

So, 193 immersion is a latecomer to the party, right? I guess a year ago very few people understood, including myself by the way, the value of adding water, just add water. I do it to my whisky all the time but never to my steppers and scanners. It does not improve the whisky, but it does seem to improve the steppers and scanners.

那麼，193 沉浸式體驗算是後來者了，對嗎？我想一年前很少人明白，包括我自己，加水的價值就是加水。我經常對我的威士忌這樣做，但從不對我的步進機和掃描器這樣做。它並沒有改善威士忌的品質，但似乎確實改善了步進機和掃描器。

So, it is a new trend, and I have got to say to my organization: Well done, chaps. To get that out in a year and take the first order was a pretty special performance. We were, let me say, lucky a little bit. And you have got to understand this because you have got to place some bets on the company shortly.

所以，這是一個新趨勢，我必須對我的組織說：幹得好，夥計們。在一年內完成這項工作並獲得第一個訂單是一個非常特別的表現​​。我想說，我們有點幸運。你必須明白這一點，因為你很快就要對公司下注。

The TWINSCAN system is ideally suited for a wet environment, so to speak, in that it has two chucks. So you can do all the measurements off-line in the dry chuck, without having the problems of refractions on the surface of the water and so on. Transfer those measurements to the wet chuck for exposure.

TWINSCAN 系統非常適合潮濕環境，因為它有兩個卡盤。因此，您可以在乾卡盤中離線進行所有測量，而不會出現水面折射等問題。將這些測量值轉移到濕卡盤上進行曝光。

So, a big spin-off benefit of the two chuck solution is that when you go to a water-based system, boy it does give a big, big advantage to the customer who can perform measurements in the dry, known, well-tried, well-tested environment. Also a bit of luck with the bottom service of our lens system, which was flat rather than convex, which allows the water meniscus to better stay with it. So, we had a bit of luck but still, we got them out in time.

因此，雙卡盤解決方案的一大附帶好處是，當您採用水基系統時，它確實為能夠在乾燥、已知、經過充分嘗試和測試的環境中進行測量的客戶帶來了巨大的優勢。我們的鏡頭系統底部的服務也有點幸運，它是平的而不是凸的，這使得水彎月面能夠更好地保持在它上面。所以，我們有點運氣，但我們仍然及時把他們救了出來。

We are going to sell this year between, I do not know, five and ten systems, I guess, of that order. There will be early development tools for our customers who want to explore the new technology, find out how the water interfaces with various processes and other things. Learn how to use it, in other words.

我猜，我們今年將銷售大約五到十套這樣的系統。我們將為想要探索新技術、了解水如何與各種流程和其他事物互動的客戶提供早期開發工具。換句話說，學習如何使用它。

The true value of immersion will not come through until you have a lens designed specifically for it, with a numerical aperture greater than one. In other words, a lens that will not work in air but will work under water, so to speak. And they will be the real winning products. And we have got those lens designs coming through as we speak. And we will be shipping those kind of products a few quarters down the track from now.

除非您擁有專為浸沒式成像設計的鏡頭，且其數值孔徑大於一，否則浸沒式成像的真正價值是無法體現的。換句話說，可以說鏡頭在空氣中無法工作，但可以在水下工作。它們才是真正的致勝產品。我們正在討論這些鏡頭的設計。我們將在幾個季度後開始發售這類產品。

So you will see this year a handful or two of tools using development work by our customers. And then after that, about a year afterwards, you will see the real improved resolution tools coming through with specially designed lenses.

因此，今年您將看到少數或兩種使用我們客戶開發成果的工具。然後，大約一年後，您將看到真正改進的解析度工具透過專門設計的鏡頭實現。

And Doug, you still feel you have at least a six-month lead on the competition here?

道格，您仍然覺得您在這裡的競爭中至少領先六個月嗎？

If it were only six months, I would feel disappointed. I personally think it is more than that. It is difficult to tell because they are good. We have heard a lot of noise from the competition, but we have got the orders.

如果只有六個月，我會感到失望。我個人認為不只這些。很難說，因為它們都很好。我們聽到了很多來自競爭對手的聲音，但我們已經得到了訂單。

And then lastly, Doug. Two of your larger customers, you have extended these option agreements to them. I am kind of curious when you look at the Q4 order rates. Did they include those two large customers or can we expect to see a surge from those guys in the first half of this year?

最後，道格。您已將這些選擇權協議提供給您的兩位較大的客戶。當您查看第四季度的訂單率時，我有點好奇。他們是否包括那兩個大客戶，或者我們可以預期在今年上半年看到這兩個客戶數量的激增？

Peter is the architect of our option program. He is dying to tell you. So come on Peter.

彼得是我們選擇權計畫的設計者。他非常想告訴你。所以來吧，彼得。

It is true, John, that those got converted into cold orders. So, they are in there.

確實，約翰，那些已經變成了冷冰冰的命令。所以，他們就在那裡。

Let us hear it for Peter, yes.

是的，讓我們聽聽彼得的說法。

But more to come, Peter. Is that the way to think about it?

但還有更多，彼得。是這樣思考的嗎？

Sorry, more?

抱歉，還有更多嗎？

More to come?

還有更多嗎？

Well, those will not be options. What customers now want, if you offered them an option program so that they can choose that moment in which they can call the order, they call it the moment that they give you the option.

嗯，這些都不是選擇。客戶現在想要的是，如果您為他們提供一個選項程序，以便他們可以選擇在哪個時刻下訂單，他們會在給您選項的那一刻稱之為訂單。

Yes, last year we wanted to sell tools and they wanted to give us orders for options. This year we wanted to take options, they want to take the tools.

是的，去年我們想銷售工具，他們想提供我們選擇訂單。今年我們想要選擇，他們想要工具。

So, I think the option program has served, at least two quarters in 2003, quite well and gave us a liquidity advantage, and gave us an early sight on some orders that we could book. But currently what customers want is not options, they want tools.

因此，我認為選擇權計劃至少在 2003 年的兩個季度中發揮了很好的作用，為我們提供了流動性優勢，並讓我們提前看到了一些可以預訂的訂單。但目前客戶想要的不是選項，而是工具。

Right, thanks guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

The next question comes from Mr. Matt Gable. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自馬特蓋博先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Matt, sorry, this is Craig. Before you start, could I just ask all the listeners and question askers to ask just one question and one follow-up, just in consideration of all the rest of the audience, so we can get as many in as possible. Thanks. Go ahead Matt.

馬特，對不起，我是克雷格。在您開始之前，我能否請所有聽眾和提問者只提出一個問題和一個後續問題，以考慮到所有其他聽眾，以便我們能夠盡可能多地回答問題。謝謝。繼續吧，馬特。

Hi. Just had a question about the linearity of bookings in Q4 and follow-up. Do you think in Q1 that backlog ASP will increase sequentially? Thanks.

你好。我只是想問一下關於第四季度和後續預訂的線性問題。您認為第一季積壓訂單的平均銷售價格會較上季增加嗎？謝謝。

It is a tough one to call. Depends on the mix as you know, mostly mix. I mean our backlog ASP is not disappointing. It is really a function of the mix. It is richer in used tools and 8 inch tools. And, therefore, they do sell at a lower price because they produce less silicon per hour.

這是一個很難回答的問題。取決於混合，正如您所知，主要是混合。我的意思是我們的積壓 ASP 並不令人失望。這確實是一種混合功能。二手工具、8吋工具較豐富。因此，由於它們每小時生產的矽較少，所以它們的售價較低。

So, it is by no means, as far as I am concerned, a negative. I think one or two of my colleagues on the call in here maybe think it is. And it is just a function of mix.

所以，就我而言，這絕不是一件壞事。我想，參加電話會議的一位或兩位同事可能認為是這樣的。這只是混合的一個功能。

It is difficult to tell what is going to come in Q1. And I think there is still a lot more demand pent up for quick release capacity, which probably means that Q1 will stimulate also a lot of 200mm, and even some more refurbished tools to come into the backlog.

很難預測第一季會發生什麼。我認為對於快速釋放產能仍有大量需求被壓抑，這可能意味著第一季將刺激大量 200 毫米甚至更多翻新工具進入積壓狀態。

So, perhaps it will be the same mix as we see today and, therefore, similar ASP.

因此，也許它會與我們今天看到的相同，因此 ASP 也類似。

I would like to add to that, Doug. We did mention that we expect that 300mm demand in the second half of the year will actually increase. So, that will need to find its way through the order backlog in the first half of the year. Whether it is Q1 or Q2, that remains to be seen.

我想補充一點，道格。我們確實提到過，我們預計下半年 300 毫米的需求實際上會增加。因此，這需要透過上半年的訂單積壓來解決。無論是 Q1 還是 Q2，還有待觀察。

What we are currently seeing is indeed this trend of 200mm additions to the capacity of our customers. But it has to grow to 300mm in the first of the year. So, that will mean growing ASP in the backlog.

我們目前看到的確實是客戶增加 200mm 產能的趨勢。但它必須在年初長到300毫米。因此，這意味著積壓訂單的平均售價將會增加。

On the linearity thing. We actually had four good booking months, if you include September in that. Four good booking months in one quarter is quite good going actually. So, September and the three months of the quarter we had four good booking months. Fairly linear and, I suppose, a bit lumpy.

關於線性的事情。如果將九月也算在內，我們實際上有四個月的預訂情況都很好。一個季度內有四個月的預訂情況都很好，這實際上是相當不錯的。因此，九月和本季的三個月我們有四個好的預訂月份。相當線性，而且我認為有點不均勻。

Obviously a bit of a lull over Christmas and the first part of January, as people take their well-earned vacations, but interest still happened strong out there. So I think we are going to see less of a kind of a rush but a good solid incoming set of orders that will at least equal our outgoing orders. And, therefore, we will have a neutral, positive book-bill ratio in the first quarter.

顯然，聖誕節和 1 月初會有些平靜，因為人們正在享受他們應得的假期，但人們的興趣仍然很濃厚。因此，我認為我們將不再看到那種匆忙，而是看到一系列穩定的訂單，至少與我們的訂單量持平。因此，第一季我們的訂單出貨比將保持中性、正值。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Ali Irani. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自阿里·伊拉尼先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, with CIBC World Markets. Could you please help us identify, as we go through the first half of the year, what mix of customers you see ordering for new fab build and 300mm asset replacement cycle versus some of the line width improvements? And how long you see the line width improvement extendible under 200mm fab?

是的，與 CIBC World Markets 合作。您能否幫助我們確定，在上半年，您看到哪些客戶組合訂購了新的晶圓廠建設和 300 毫米資產更換週期以及一些線寬改進？您認為 200 毫米晶圓廠的線寬改善可以延續多久？

And here, Doug, I am hoping you will give us a little bit of a view over the next 12 months of where you think your new 65nm 200mm offerings are going to play out in this cycle?

道格，我希望您能為我們提供一些未來 12 個月的看法，您認為您的新 65nm 200mm 產品將在這個週期中發揮什麼作用？

Okay, you may be surprised, you perhaps would not be surprised, inside ASML we have different views on some things, and this is one of them. One of my colleagues in this room, Mr. McIntosh, the well-known Scotsman, believes that 200mm is dead essentiallty, and 300mm is the only investment area that sensible customers will go.

好吧，你可能會感到驚訝，你也許不會感到驚訝，在 ASML 內部，我們對一些事情有不同的看法，這是其中之一。我在座的一位同事，著名的蘇格蘭人麥金托什先生認為，200mm 基本上已經死了，而 300mm 是明智的客戶唯一會投資的領域。

I happen to disagree, modestly, with Mr. McIntosh, and that is fair too. So, you get my answer, but since we allow you only one question, you only going to get one answer. So, you are only going to get mine and I will not allow Stuart to give you his answer.

我恰好謙虛地不同意麥金托什先生的觀點，這也是公平的。所以，你得到了我的答案，但由於我們只允許你提出一個問題，所以你只能得到一個答案。所以，你只能得到我的答案，我不會允許史都華給你他的答案。

Well then, let me ask for this, maybe perhaps some color. You have been marketing this product for a couple of months now and capacity in the industry is very tight. And you would think that there was some value perceived over the next six to eight quarters in extending the life of the 200mm fabs. So, perhaps, tangibly if you could help share with us what your customers are telling you in terms of potential bookings for those tools?

那麼，讓我請求一下，也許可以請求一些顏色。您已經行銷該產品幾個月了，但行業產能非常緊張。您可能會認為，在接下來的六到八個季度中，延長 200 毫米晶圓廠的壽命會帶來一定的價值。那麼，您是否可以實際與我們分享您的客戶對這些工具的潛在預訂情況？

So, there are a few customers, a randomly select bunch of customers, who have not yet, and probably should not yet, commit to 200mm but they want to go down the next node. And they are the guys who are expressing interest, and strong interest, in advanced technology at 200mm.

因此，有少數客戶，一群隨機選擇的客戶，他們尚未，可能還不應該承諾 200mm，但他們想要進入下一個節點。他們對 200 毫米先進技術表現出濃厚的興趣。

Obviously, if you have a 300mm fab, it is probably-- Well, I would not say a waste of money, but it is maybe not the wisest investment to invest in 200mm leading edge if you have got a 300mm fab empty. So, those guys are going to be inclined to go more for the solution at 300mm, for obvious long-term, benefit reasons.

顯然，如果你擁有一座 300 毫米晶圓廠，那麼很可能——好吧，我不會說這是浪費錢，但如果你擁有一座空置的 300 毫米晶圓廠，那麼投資 200 毫米前沿技術可能不是最明智的投資。因此，出於明顯的長期利益原因，這些人將更傾向於選擇 300 毫米的解決方案。

So, think about the customers who are big but not quite big enough for 300mm. Those kind of people, at the leading edge, want to take their existing fabs, which are quite good, well-constructed fabs, and just take them down as far as we can technology-wiseTherefore putting off the point in time they have to commit to an investment, which maybe for them is a bridge too far. A big 300mm project.

因此，考慮一下那些規模很大但還不足以容納 300 毫米的客戶。那些處於領先地位的人，希望利用他們現有的、相當不錯、建造精良的晶圓廠，並在技術方面盡可能地將其降低，因此推遲了他們必須進行投資的時間，這對他們來說可能太過遙遠。一個大型 300 毫米項目。

So, there is a handful of customers showing initial interest. I am sure there will be more pop out of the woodwork as the time goes by. And we are taking orders for the XT product as we speak.

因此，有少數客戶表現出了初步興趣。我相信隨著時間的推移，將會有更多的新事物出現。我們正在接受 XT 產品的訂單。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Shekar Pramanick . Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自 Shekar Pramanick 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, this Shekar Pramanick for Shekah. Maybe you could comment a little bit, with the increasing visibility that you have now? Some of the expectations for shipments? I know that you do not give a specific guidance but maybe some directional indication for shipments. And also if you could comment a little bit about targeted operating margins as we go forward? As you have the cost improvements as we get to the lower break, the 130 unit breakeven level in the second half. But if you could maybe revisit what the target operating margin is?

是的，這個 Shekar Pramanick 代表 Shekah。鑑於您現在的知名度越來越高，也許您可以發表一點評論？對於出貨量有什麼預期？我知道您沒有給出具體的指導，但可能給出了一些有關貨運的方向性指示。另外，您能否對我們未來的目標營業利潤率發表一些評論？隨著成本的改善，我們達到了較低的損益平衡水平，即下半年的 130 個單位的損益平衡水平。但您是否可以重新考慮目標營業利潤率是多少？

Okay, well, look we have got to leave you guys and gals some work to do. So we tell you what the backlog is and we tell you how much of the backlog is required in the next six months. And it is 80% of 124, you can do the sums yourself. It is roughly 100 and three or four systems round figures for the first six months.

好的，好吧，看，我們必須留一些工作去做給你們。因此，我們會告訴您積壓的數量，並告訴您未來六個月需要多少積壓。它是 124 的 80%，你可以自己算算看。前六個月的數字大約是 100 和三到四個系統的整數。

That is as far as I am going to go with giving you guidance on what we are going to ship in the next two quarters. Okay, so, I am sure you can get pretty close from that information and knowing the company.

這就是我將向您提供的關於我們未來兩個季度將要推出的產品的指導。好的，我相信你可以透過這些資訊了解這家公司。

The other part of your question was operating margin. And, again, if I tell you all that then arguably we do not need you guys to do the analysis work for us. I say that with a smile on smile on my face. We do need you, obviously.

你的問題的另一部分是營業利潤率。而且，如果我再告訴你們這些，那麼可以說我們不需要你們為我們做分析工作。我滿臉笑容地說。顯然，我們確實需要你。

What we will commit to is that we achieved 29% gross margin in Q4. We are going to commit to increasing that by between 2% and 3% in Q1. And we are going to commit to a continual quarter-on-quarter improvement through the whole of next year, and probably through most of 2005, by the way, but not in significant amounts. Then you have got to do your own work on that one to find out where you think we are going to be.

我們承諾的是，第四季實現29%的毛利率。我們將承諾在第一季將這一比例提高 2% 至 3%。順便說一下，我們將致力於在明年全年，甚至在 2005 年的大部分時間裡，實現逐季的持續改善，但幅度不會很大。然後你必須自己做這項工作來找出你認為我們會去哪裡。

We have helped you with the operating margin by telling you a pretty tight range or R&D and SG&A expenditure by quarter. And it is in the press release. So if you cannot get it, please call our investor relations guys. And from that you can construct a good model, I think, which will get you pretty close to the answer without me committing every number that I think I know. Okay?

我們透過告訴您按季度計算的研發和銷售、一般及行政開支的相當嚴格的範圍來幫助您了解營業利潤率。新聞稿裡也有提到。因此，如果您無法獲得這些訊息，請致電我們的投資者關係人員。我認為，由此你就可以建立一個好的模型，它會讓你非常接近答案，而不需要我提供我認為我知道的每一個數字。好的？

Thanks.

謝謝。

A pleasure.

很高興。

The next question comes from Mr. Mike O'Brien. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自麥克·奧布萊恩先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, Mike O'Brien, SoundView Technology. Just a question on backlog. Do you have any significant portion of the backlog that is greater than a year in delivery? And, if not, when do you think you may start to see some backlog you would be putting on the books of a greater than a year out delivery?

是的，我是 SoundView Technology 的 Mike O'Brien。這只是關於積壓的一個問題。您是否有大量積壓訂單需要一年以上才能交付？如果沒有，您認為什麼時候會開始看到一些積壓訂單，而這些訂單的交付時間將超過一年？

The 99% answer is no. There is maybe one or two, or maybe three, beyond a year but essentially they are within twelve months. 80% is within six months as we have told you. The other 20% or 19% of those 20% probably is in the next six months. So I do not think there is a big tail-off in aging there. And my colleagues are looking and I think they are saying there is nothing at all. So not even one, so therefore it is less than 12 in backlog...

99% 的答案是否定的。可能有一兩個，或三個，超過一年，但基本上都在十二個月內。正如我們告訴您的那樣，80% 是在六個月內完成的。另外 20% 或 20% 中的 19% 可能在未來六個月內實現。所以我不認為那裡的老化現象會大幅減緩。我的同事們也在關注，我認為他們會說什麼也沒有。所以甚至沒有一個，因此積壓的數量少於 12 個...

So when do we start to see backlogs beyond twelve months, I don’t know. My first requirement, if I can use that word, is to see a backlog that is between 12 and 6 months. I’d be quite content with that. I think orders beyond 12 months out, given the cycle times of our industry on volatility, are probably irrelevant to me. What is important is my own lead time on orders [inaudible]. I want to see that backlog filling out between 6 and 9 months. So, I don’t want to see orders beyond 12 months, I do want to see more orders between 6 and 9 months.

那麼，我們什麼時候會開始看到超過十二個月的積壓，我不知道。我的第一個要求（如果我可以使用這個詞的話）是看到積壓訂單在 12 到 6 個月之間。我對此非常滿意。我認為，考慮到我們行業的波動週期，超過 12 個月的訂單可能對我來說無關緊要。重要的是我自己的訂單準備時間[聽不清楚]。我希望看到積壓的工作能夠在 6 到 9 個月內完成。所以，我不想看到超過 12 個月的訂單，我希望看到更多 6 到 9 個月之間的訂單。

But typically, you do see, do you think the cycle will be different that you won’t see those 12 month orders, it seems like typically there’s a panic?

但通常情況下，你確實會看到，你認為週期會有所不同嗎，你不會看到那些 12 個月的訂單，似乎通常會出現恐慌？

In the past, we’ve never actually told you of orders beyond 12 months, I believe, because we treat it with a degree of skepticism. So you’ve only ever seen from us a 12 month backlog, even if an order is 18 months out, we’ve not actually, usually disclosed those to you because we think they are misleading to us and therefore, to you. I think we’re going to see orders’ lead times stretching out and that 6-9 months is my interest point. Beyond 12 months, I will take them gratefully but I will not talk about them too much because I know that in the next 12 months things can change dramatically. They could be cancelled or pushed out.

我認為，過去我們從未真正告訴過您超過 12 個月的訂單，因為我們對此持懷疑態度。因此，您只會看到我們 12 個月的積壓訂單，即使訂單需要 18 個月才能完成，我們實際上通常也不會向您披露這些信息，因為我們認為這些信息會誤導我們，因此也會誤導您。我認為我們將會看到訂單的交付週期延長，而 6-9 個月是我感興趣的點。12 個月後，我會心懷感激地度過它們，但我不會談論太多，因為我知道在接下來的 12 個月裡，事情可能會發生巨大變化。它們可能會被取消或推遲。

And I think the rest of your question is there a panic? Well, there is no panic because I think customers are still, 80% of the backlog is for the next six months. I think there is still caution and that shows. So there is no panic inside I would say.

我認為您剩下的問題是恐慌嗎？嗯，沒有必要恐慌，因為我認為客戶仍然在，80% 的積壓訂單是在接下來的六個月內。我認為人們仍需保持謹慎，這一點已經表現出來了。所以我想說，內心並不慌張。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Matthew Gale. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自馬修·蓋爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hello, Goldman Sachs. A question for Peter on the SG&A line. I think you mentioned earlier today in the press conference that the variance there in your guidance has a lot to do with the litigation expenses. And I was wondering if you could just give us an update on the various suits that are going on in the different geographies as far as timing?

你好，高盛。向 Peter 詢問有關銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 方面的問題。我想您今天早些時候在新聞發布會上提到過，您的指導中的差異與訴訟費用有很大關係。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下在不同地區正在進行的各種訴訟的最新情況？

What really is the key trigger for the uptake in expenses? Is it actually when you are seeing significant hearings? Or is there any way you can predict which quarters we are going to see a big uptake in the SG&A line?

真正導致費用增加的關鍵因素是什麼？您實際上是在參加重要聽證會嗎？或者您能預測哪些季度銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 會大幅上漲嗎？

Yes, I think it is very much driven by the hearings. So the intensity of the hearings. And that is the result of the legal process, that is driving cost. What we see there, the major case we have in California. We have an appeal case on the IPC which serves in the second part of this year. We have cases in Asia, in Japan. We have in Korea a case. Those are cases that are stretching out over a very long period of time. And in California we are not proceeding very fast either. We have experienced some delays and it is difficult because those delays we did not expect.

是的，我認為這很大程度上是由聽證會推動的。聽證會的強度如此之大。這是法律程序的結果，從而增加了成本。我們看到的就是加州發生的重大案件。我們在印度人民法院有一個上訴案件，將於今年下半年審理。我們在亞洲、日本都有案例。我們在韓國有一個案例。這些案件已經拖延了很長一段時間。在加州，我們的進展也不是很迅速。我們遇到了一些延誤，這很困難，因為這些延誤是我們沒有預料到的。

So it is difficult to actually say we will hit a peak in the third quarter. It might just as well be the fourth, given the fact that the courts might decide to take part of the hearing in Q4 instead of in Q3. And that happens all of the time. So it is bit difficult to say we will hit a peak there and then.

因此，實際上很難說我們將在第三季達到頂峰。考慮到法院可能決定在第四季而不是第三季參加聽證會，這也可能是第四次。這樣的事時常發生。因此，很難說我們是否會在那時達到頂峰。

I do not expect that the only fixed date which is in the third quarter, which is the appeal to the IPC court ruling, that that will lead to a big increase in cost. Because that is, in terms of time spent by the lawyers, not a very significant part of the case. The big money spent will be on the California case. And that is a case that basically changes a lot in terms of timing. So it is difficult to say.

我並不認為，唯一的固定日期（即第三季對 IPC 法院裁決的上訴）會導致成本大幅增加。因為從律師所花的時間來看，這不是案件中非常重要的一部分。最大的花費將花在加州的案件上。從時間上看，這種情況基本上發生了很大變化。所以很難說。

Okay, thank you. Just two quick follow-ups. So if you had a revenue breakout in Q3, you gave us between 200mm and 300m. I was wondering if you could provide that again?

好的，謝謝。只需快速跟進兩個問題。因此，如果您在第三季實現收入突破，那麼您將為我們帶來 2 億至 3 億的收入。我想知道您是否可以再次提供該資訊？

And then, finally, a clarification. Earlier today you were saying you were forecasting that the backlog would be up sequentially in Q1. And then I thought I heard in the call Doug say that now bookings would actually be up. Because I know backlog can be up even with bookings down in Q1. So could you clarify that?

最後，進行澄清。今天早些時候，您說過，您預測第一季的積壓訂單量將環比增加。然後我想我聽到道格在電話裡說現在預訂量實際上會增加。因為我知道即使第一季的預訂量下降，積壓訂單仍可能增加。你能澄清一下嗎？

Okay, let me take the second one because I guess you quoted me on that one. Let me replay it again so we can clearly understand.

好的，讓我選第二個，因為我猜你在那一個問題上引用了我的話。讓我再重播一遍，以便我們能夠清楚地理解。

So, we have a backlog right now of 124 systems valued at just under €1bn. What I was trying to say, obviously failed to communicate to you, I am sorry for that, when we meet on this telephone call in three months time, I am kind of predicting, and it is out on a limb a bit and I appreciate that but I have got good reasons, that thebacklog at that point, as we have moved on a quarter, will be higher than 124 systems and greater value than €1bn, by a small amount. Okay? That is what I was saying.

因此，我們目前積壓了 124 個系統，價值略低於 10 億歐元。我想說的是，顯然我未能與您溝通，對此我深感抱歉，當我們在三個月後通過電話會面時，我有點預測，這有點冒險，我理解這一點，但我有充分的理由相信，到那時，隨著我們前進一個季度，積壓訂單將略高於 124 個系統，價值將超過 10 億歐元，但幅度很小。好的？這就是我所說的。

Therefore we have to, in the quarter, book more than we are going to build to achieve that mathematical objective. Understand?

因此，為了實現這一數學目標，我們必須在本季度預訂比我們要建造的更多的東西。理解？

Okay, but you are not forecasting your bookings to be up sequentially?

好的，但是您預測您的預訂量不會連續上升嗎？

No, no, no. In fact, looking at the rate we booked in Q4, I would absolutely say that they will not be up sequentially. No way, no. If I gave the impression, then I was dreadfully wrong. No. bookings will not be up, backlog will be up.

不，不，不。事實上，看看我們在第四季度預訂的價格，我絕對可以說它們不會連續上漲。不可能，不可能。如果我給人留下了這樣的印象，那我就大錯特錯了。不會，預訂量不會增加，積壓量會增加。

Okay, and then the shipment breakdown 200/300?

好的，那麼出貨明細是 200/300 嗎？

For which period?

哪個時期？

For Q4.

對於第四季。

We can tell you for the half year. It is on our Web page for the half year, right? The billings for the second half was 39 for the half year 200mm and 70 300mm. Sorry, 39 200mm, 31 300mm. Can we come back to you if we find it. Move on or we will waste time otherwise.

我們可以告訴你半年的時間。它在我們的網頁上已經有半年了，對嗎？下半年的出貨量為 39（200 毫米）和 70（300 毫米）。抱歉，39 200mm，31 300mm。如果我們找到了，可以回覆您嗎？繼續前進，否則我們就會浪費時間。

Sure, thank you.

當然，謝謝。

If we get it we will come back to you, okay?

如果我們得到它，我們會回到你身邊，好嗎？

[Operator instructions] The next question comes from Mr. Peter Testa.

[操作員指示] 下一個問題來自 Peter Testa 先生。

It is Peter Testa from One Investments. I was wondering if you could help explain what is going on in supplier lead times? And especially the degree to which it is has been affected by quite a different mix than maybe had been expected by the suppliers? And whether this has been an issue at all as to why inside 300mm backlog there is a preponderance of 248 rather than a big shift towards 193?

他是 One Investments 的 Peter Testa。我想知道您是否可以幫助解釋供應商交貨時間是怎麼回事？尤其是它受到的影響程度與供應商預期的完全不同？這是否是一個問題，為什麼 300 毫米積壓訂單中主要有 248 個，而不是大量轉向 193 個？

No, to answer the second part of your question first. The mix of the backlog, both wafer size and node, is a natural mix as required by customers. Do not forget that the sweet spot for production of integrated circuits these days is still 180nm and that is 248. And the node going into volume production right now is 130nm and that is still accomplished mostly by 248.

不，先回答你問題的第二部分。積壓訂單的組合，包括晶圓尺寸和節點，都是根據客戶要求的自然組合。不要忘記，如今積體電路生產的最佳點仍然是 180nm，也就是 248。目前投入量產的節點是 130nm，大部分仍由 248 實現。

So that is why it is 248 rich. It is a natural backlog, not a function of what we can supply and what we cannot supply, if you understand that.

這就是為什麼它富有248的原因。如果你能理解這一點，那麼這是一個自然的積壓，而不是我們能提供什麼和不能提供什麼的函數。

The impact on our suppliers. Well, in a way, they have had three easy years, although not pleasant years. Clearly we are now upping the ante with them. We are communicating with them strongly and making sure that they are responding to our needs.

對我們的供應商的影響。嗯，從某種意義上來說，他們度過了輕鬆的三年，儘管並不愉快。顯然，我們現在正在向他們加大賭注。我們正在與他們密切溝通，確保他們能夠滿足我們的需求。

I do not think at this point in time that they are in any way, shape or form, a limitation. What we have to do is continue working with them to improve their cycle times. And we have got active programs with all those suppliers to do that.

我認為目前它們無論以何種方式、何種形式都不是一個限制。我們要做的就是繼續與他們合作，以改善他們的週期時間。我們已經與所有供應商制定了積極的計劃來實現這一目標。

We have internally, by the way, also increased our internal capacity for module development. We had some modules, major modules, the most complex ones we have, sole sourced from external suppliers. We are not performing, quite frankly, on price or lead time or even quality. And we converted part of our Wilton assets into a module manufacturing capability which has done three things in parallel. Improved the quality, reduced the costs to us, and improved the cycle time to us.

順便說一句，我們內部也提高了模組開發的內部能力。我們有一些模組，主要模組，最複雜的模組，全部來自外部供應商。坦白說，我們在價格、交貨時間甚至品質方面表現不佳。我們將部分 Wilton 資產轉化為模組製造能力，同時完成了三件事。提高了質量，降低了我們的成本，並縮短了我們的週期時間。

So we are a little less dependent on some of the people who were difficult to manage previously. And we have also swapped some suppliers. So we have taken action on our supply base to try and make it more flexible. And less dependent on key suppliers who were sole sourced who did not have any leverage on them to improve their performance.

因此，我們對一些以前難以管理的人的依賴程度有所降低。我們也更換了一些供應商。因此，我們對我們的供應基地採取了行動，試圖使其更加靈活。並且減少對單一來源的關鍵供應商的依賴，因為這些供應商無法利用任何優勢來提高其業績。

Okay, so effectively your suppliers are not causing you any lead time questions at this point?

好的，那麼實際上您的供應商目前還沒有為您帶來任何交貨時間問題嗎？

No, the lead time questions are actually from customers. Let us be quite candid here. I really go on record defending my suppliers but they do have real lead times. The issue here is that customers have been used to giving orders with low lead times because we had high inventories, and we had lots of capacity.

不，交貨時間問題實際上來自客戶。讓我們坦誠相待吧。我確實公開為我的供應商辯護，但他們確實有真正的交貨時間。這裡的問題是，由於我們的庫存量大，產能充足，客戶已經習慣下交貨時間較短的訂單。

That is no longer the case. So the issue is not my suppliers. The issue is my customers who are going through the process of having to pick up a bit more courage and give longer lead times orders. Because they are now recognizing I cannot supply a six month lead time product inside six months.

但現在情況已不再如此。所以問題不在於我的供應商。問題是我的客戶正在經歷必須鼓起更多勇氣並延長訂單交貨時間的過程。因為他們現在認識到我無法在六個月內提供六個月交貨期的產品。

Okay, and as a follow-up. What do you think your supplier lead times are in the different product classes?

好的，作為後續。您認為不同產品類別的供應商交貨時間是多少？

Between six and 12 months actually. Total lead time from receipt of order to shipment of product, including our relatively modest assembly time internally. Between six and 12 months, depending on the product type and mix and so on;Lens type, platform, etc.

實際上介於 6 到 12 個月之間。從收到訂單到產品出貨的總交貨週期，包括我們內部相對適中的組裝時間。6 至 12 個月之間，取決於產品類型和組合等；鏡頭類型、平台等。

Right, okay, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝。

A pleasure.

很高興。

Thank you. The next question comes from Mr. Pascal Peton. Please state your company followed by your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Pascal Peton 先生。請說明您的公司，然後提出您的問題。

KPC (kvc??)Financial Products. Good afternoon. I wonder whether you could tell me what the company short-term debt, if there is any short-term debt?

KPC（kvc??）金融產品。午安.不知道能否介紹一下貴公司短期負債狀況，是否有短期負債？

The debt outstanding are two convertibles. One due in 2006 and one in 2010. And the 2006 is $575m and the 2010 is €380m.

未償還債務為兩張可轉換債券。一個將於 2006 年到期，另一個將於 2010 年到期。2006 年為 5.75 億美元，2010 年為 3.8 億歐元。

Well you owe me for last week expenses, Peter, as well but we will not count that.

嗯，彼得，你也欠我上週的費用，但我們不會算這個。

But when I talk about debt I do not talk about short-term liabilities like accounts payable and accruals. I talk about debt.

但是當我談論債務時，我並不談論應付帳款和應計款項等短期負債。我談論債務。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

How about the next question?

下一個問題怎麼樣？

The next question comes from Mr. Dan Duckery. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自 Dan Duckery 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Similar questions that I may push the limit on too many, so stop me if I do. If we look at sort of the changes.

類似的問題我可能會提出太多，所以如果我這樣做的話就阻止我。如果我們看一下這些變化。

Stop.

停止。

If we look at the changes since last year, the credit situation has improved a lot. If you hit some of what you forecast to the equity analysts, do you see one burning cash in terms of working capital? Even with your DSO target in 04?

如果我們看一下去年以來的變化，信貸狀況已經有了很大的改善。如果您向股票分析師做出的一些預測確實實現了，您是否認為有人會在營運資金方面燒錢？即使 04 年的 DSO 目標已經實現？

What do we see, burning cash? The answer is no.

我們看到的是什麼？燒錢嗎？答案是否定的。

Even with the working capital build at the second half of 04 and 05? We hit this recovery?

即使在 04 年和 05 年下半年建立了營運資本？我們實現了這個復甦嗎？

Correct. The working capital build, like we also said in the press conference. We still intend to increase our inventory terms which we also did, by the way, in 2003. We will continue with that in 2004. When you look at the profit forecast, as you mentioned the analysts, you have to remember that we do have a quite significant deferred tax asset on the balance sheet which is a source of cash.

正確的。就像我們在新聞發布會上所說的那樣，營運資金的建立。我們仍然打算提高庫存條件，順便說一下，2003 年我們也這樣做了。2004年我們將繼續這樣做。當您查看利潤預測時，正如您所提到的分析師，您必須記住，我們的資產負債表上確實有一筆相當大的遞延稅項資產，它是現金來源。

It basically means that the tax that we use for accounting purposes is not actually paid. And together with the depreciation for next year which we estimate at roughly €130m and about €75m to €80m in CAPEX expense, we will add a lot of cash. But we will also use some cash in working capital. But with the improved inventory terms, we think the overall balance will be a positive.

這基本上意味著我們用於會計目的的稅實際上並沒有繳納。加上我們估計明年的折舊費用（約 1.3 億歐元）和資本支出（約 7,500 萬至 8,000 萬歐元），我們將增加大量現金。但我們也會使用一些現金作為營運資金。但隨著庫存狀況的改善，我們認為整體平衡將是正面的。

So we will generate cash this year.

因此我們今年將會產生現金。

Okay, you answered my second question on CAPEX. Last one. If we look at the convertible, the five and three quarters of 06, the $575m. That is provisionally callable in October of this year. Should we assume that you would wait until that was callable and forcing conversion into stock? Or would you envision calling that even if there was a probability that you might actually pay cash to call it?

好的，您回答了我關於資本支出的第二個問題。最後一個。如果我們看一下可轉換債券，06 年的五年和四分之三，價值 5.75 億美元。該贖回權暫時可在今年 10 月兌現。我們是否應該假設您會等到可贖回並強制轉換為股票？或者，即使您實際上可能需要支付現金才能撥打該電話，您也會考慮撥打該電話嗎？

That is too early to say. When we look at the second quarter of this year, 20% of the backlog has to do with the second half of the year. We all have great expectations of the year. Let us see how the year develops. We will take it from there.

現在說這個還為時過早。當我們看今年第二季時，20％的積壓訂單與下半年有關。我們都對新的一年寄予厚望。讓我們看看今年的情況如何。我們將從那裡開始。

Okay. I mean could you run the company with only €500m in cash?

好的。我的意思是，你能只用 5 億歐元現金來經營公司嗎？

Yes. Yes but we will not have to.

是的。是的，但我們沒必要這麼做。

Okay, thank you very much. And, Doug, I was sort of rubbing it in on your retirement statement there. Thank you both. Good luck.

好的，非常感謝。道格，我剛才好像又強調了你退休聲明中提到的這一點。謝謝你們兩位。祝你好運。

Bye.

再見。

Thank you. The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji. Please state your company name followed by your question sir. Mr. Orji, please state your question sir. I am sorry sir.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。奧吉先生，請提出您的問題。對不起，先生。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Mike O'Brien. Please go ahead sir.

我們有來自麥克·奧布萊恩先生的後續問題。先生，請繼續。

Yes, two quick questions. I do not think in answering John Pitzer's question you talked about the ASP increasefor the immersion tool. If you can give us an update on that? And then, can you give us an idea of when you think, or if you think, there will be a unit crossover of more 193nm tools shipped than 248nm in the cycle? Thanks.

是的，兩個簡單的問題。我認為在回答 John Pitzer 的問題時您沒有談到沉浸式工具的平均售價上漲。您能提供我們最新情況嗎？然後，您能否告訴我們，您認為何時，或者您是否認為，在周期內，193nm 工具的出貨量將超過 248nm 工具的出貨量？謝謝。

I think in the second half of this cycle we will see 193 picking up. As we explained earlier, the sweet part right now is 839nm and that is a 248. And Stuart is just saying to me it all depends on the DRAM guys ,how they perform. I anticipate 192 will start to pick up part way through this cycle and start to show a clean pair of heels, so to speak, in the second half of the cycle.

我認為在這個週期的後半段，我們將看到 193 的回升。正如我們之前所解釋的，目前最棒的部分是 839nm，也就是 248。史都華只是對我說，這一切都取決於 DRAM 人員的表現。我預計 192 將在此週期中途開始回升，並在周期的後半段開始展現出一雙乾淨的鞋跟。

Your first part of the question was regarding ASPs for immersion tools. Yes, they are tools that have distinct advantages when they hit production. Right now they are development tools and we are selling them for prices in excess of €20m. Clearly, I am not going to give away precisely what to whom there but that is, if you like, if I can use the pun, a watershed price for immersion.

問題的第一部分是關於浸入式工具的 ASP。是的，這些工具在投入生產時有明顯的優勢。目前它們是開發工具，我們以超過 2000 萬歐元的價格出售它們。顯然，我不會透露那裡到底發生了什麼，但如果你願意，如果我可以使用雙關語，那就是沉浸感的分水嶺。

Mike O’Brien: Good enough, thank you.

麥克·奧布萊恩：很好，謝謝。

Thank you. The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Just a question on service revenues. Clearly we have seen a bit of a jump in service revenues in the quarter. Can you give us an idea of how they will trend through the rest of the year?

我只是想問一下服務收入的問題。顯然，我們看到本季服務收入略有成長。您能告訴我們它們在今年剩餘時間內的趨勢如何嗎？

Yes, the service revenue for the quarter, just to fresh up, is roughly €50m which is contract related. So it is basically our spend and some material in there. But the swing factor in the quarter is basically the sale of field options. And field options have the tendency to go up when there is an upturn because we do sell productivity improvement packages then. They are combinations of software and hardware-related options.

是的，本季的服務收入約為 5000 萬歐元，與合約有關。所以它基本上就是我們的支出和一些材料。但本季的波動因素基本上是現場選擇權的出售。當經濟好轉時，現場選擇權的價格往往會上漲，因為我們當時確實出售生產力改善方案。它們是軟體和硬體相關選項的組合。

So for the fourth quarter, we had roughly €50m in service sales and about €25m in option sales. The €50m you can extrapolate, with a little increase of about between 5-10% for 2004. With respect to the option sales, that is relatively bumpy. But I would say that, if you take the fourth quarter sales, I think it is safe to extrapolate that for the first two quarters. And beyond that is not quite certain. That really depends on where customers are. Whether they do need the productivity improvements.

因此，第四季我們的服務銷售額約為 5,000 萬歐元，選擇權銷售額約為 2,500 萬歐元。您可以推斷 5000 萬歐元，2004 年將略有成長，約 5-10%。就期權銷售而言，這相對來說不太順利。但我想說的是，如果以第四季的銷售額來看，我認為可以安全地推斷出前兩季的銷售額。除此之外，還不太確定。這實際上取決於客戶在哪裡。他們是否確實需要提高生產力。

But for the first two quarters that seems to be a safe bet that it is going to be in that area.

但對於前兩個季度來說，似乎可以肯定它會處於該區域。

Okay. Can you just tell us what the gross margin was on services now?

好的。您能告訴我們現在服務的毛利率是多少嗎？

It was in the low 20s and will go in 2004 to the mid 20s.

當時約 20 度出頭，2004 年將升至 20 度中段。

Okay. So you mean that the field options tend to drive the gross margins high? Is that correct?

好的。所以您的意思是現場選擇往往會提高毛利率？對嗎？

That is correct.

沒錯。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Peter Testa. Please go ahead sir.

我們有來自 Peter Testa 先生的後續問題。先生，請繼續。

Hi, it is one follow-up and an addition to my previous question. Given the supply lead times, to what extent can orders that you are taking now be delivered in the first half? And then the second question was just on foreign exchange. I mean obviously you price in euros. But with the dollar moving the way it is, customer [inaudible] set in dollars.

你好，這是對我之前問題的後續和補充。考慮到供應週期，你們現在接的訂單在多大程度上可以在上半年交付？第二個問題是關於外匯的。我的意思是顯然你以歐元定價。但隨著美元的走勢，客戶[聽不清楚]開始使用美元。

To what extent do you think this is taking away your potential for pricing power later on or delaying your potential pricing in the cycle? And there is much pricing power assumed in your comments and gross margin during the year?

您認為這在多大程度上會剝奪您以後的定價能力或延遲您在周期中的潛在定價能力？您的評論中假設的定價權和年內毛利率有多大？

So on the first part and Peter will answer the bit on the foreign exchange. The question was do we have room to put in more product into the first half and deliver in the first half for orders we have not yet taken.

因此，在第一部分中，Peter 將回答有關外匯的問題。問題是我們是否有空間在上半年投入更多產品並在上半年交付尚未接到的訂單。

The answer is limited now. We are quite candid that with five months to go to end this half, there is limited time to take orders and turn around into a finished product in a five month period. Given our lead time, given our supplier lead time. Many customers now begin to realize and it is current to see orders coming in for six or seven month lead times.

現在答案是有限的。我們非常坦率地表示，距離本半年度結束還有五個月的時間，在五個月的時間內接受訂單並將其轉化為成品的時間有限。考慮到我們的交貨時間，考慮到我們的供應商交貨時間。許多客戶現在開始意識到這一點，目前看到的訂單交貨週期為六到七個月。

We can turn a few, a handful here and there, but depends on the mix obviously. But, in essence, the answer to the question, and I would say this to all customers listening, is that we are becoming sold out in the first half of the year. And it is time that we closed the first half and focused on the third, fourth quarter.

我們可以在這裡或那裡轉動一些，但顯然取決於混合。但從本質上講，這個問題的答案是，我想對所有聽眾顧客說，我們的產品在上半年就已經銷售一空。現在是時候結束上半場並專注於第三節和第四節了。

With respect to the dollar euro exchange rate. I think you are right. In the minds of customers, and especially that run a dollar related income statement, it is a problem. Because the [inaudible] dollar are getting more expensive. But what we have seen over the last 60 to 90 days is that at least the yen has moved to the same direction as the euro.

相對於美元歐元匯率。我認為你是對的。在客戶心目中，尤其是那些與美元相關的損益表的客戶心目中，這是一個問題。因為[聽不清楚]美元變得越來越貴。但過去 60 到 90 天我們看到的是，日圓至少與歐元走向一致。

Ad that is present to all customers. We have to buy in yen or in euro the same, no problem. So it is an issue that our sales people have to deal with. But, in the end, if you have compare our pricing to all our competitors, not the dollar euro but the euro yen is really of no relevance.

向所有客戶顯示的廣告。我們必須用日元或歐元購買，沒問題。所以這是我們的銷售人員必須處理的問題。但是，最後，如果將我們的定價與所有競爭對手進行比較，那麼歐元而不是美元和日圓就真的毫無關係了。

I understand that. I was just more thinking that you have made comments earlier today suggesting that, as lead times stretch out, things tighten up. That you would be able to maybe start to reverse some of the pricing moves that were taken during the down cycle. And I was wondering the extent to which the dollar exchange rate versus all currencies has tended to take that possibility away? Or stretch that possibility out maybe a few quarters?

我明白。我只是更加認為您今天早些時候發表的評論表明，隨著交貨時間的延長，事情會變得更加緊張。您也許能夠開始扭轉經濟下行週期中採取的一些定價措施。我想知道美元兌所有貨幣的匯率在多大程度上消除了這種可能性？或將這種可能性延長幾季？

I understand it but we price in euros.

我明白，但我們以歐元定價。

I know you do.

我知道你會的。

So, I mean, the euro price is the euro price, and the yen price is the yen price. And that is what is being translated effectively by our customers when they make a comparison between our tools and those of the competition.

所以，我的意思是，歐元價格就是歐元價格，日圓價格就是日圓價格。當我們的客戶將我們的工具與競爭對手的工具進行比較時，他們就能有效地理解這一點。

Sure, but do you think you are going to be increasing your price in euros as the same time as they are already having to deal with the exchange rate within the CAPEX budget?

當然，但是您是否認為您會在他們不得不處理資本支出預算內的匯率問題的同時提高歐元價格？

I think it is also a matter of how badly do they need the tool. And many of those customers have quite extensive CAPEX plans which they have hedged. So we are getting into a situation where we are discussing this with customers. But we say, hey, we do not control the FX movements. This is the price.

我認為這也是他們有多需要這個工具的問題。許多客戶都有相當廣泛的資本支出計劃，並且已經進行了對沖。因此，我們正在與客戶討論此事。但我們說，嘿，我們無法控制外匯走勢。這就是價格。

And we are introducing new versions and new gizmos of our tools, so we are able to at least increase our average selling price in euros. We are seeing that and we are still able to do that. So, it is clearly a mental block that our customers have because of the exchange rage, clearly. But, on the other hand, there is also not a lot that they can do about it. Or, for that matter, that we as a company can actually do about it.

我們正在推出新版本和新工具，因此我們至少能夠提高歐元平均售價。我們看到了這一點，並且我們仍然能夠做到這一點。所以，這顯然是由於匯率波動導致我們的客戶產生的心理障礙。但另一方面，他們對此也無能為力。或者，就此而言，我們作為一家公司實際上可以做些什麼。

So it is what it is and some of the orders that we are getting in now, we do not see a negative effect. We are able to increase on prices here.

事實就是這樣，對於我們現在收到的一些訂單，我們並沒有看到負面影響。我們可以在這裡提高價格。

Okay, and the second part of the question. Are you expecting, say, like for like product price improvements in euros during the year within your gross margin assumptions?

好的，問題的第二部分。在您的毛利率假設範圍內，您是否預期今年同類產品的歐元價格會上漲？

Well, of course, gross margins assumptions are based basically on three pillars. That is, one, the fact that value of ownership of our tools and the improvements therein will drive the ASPs up. That is one. Number two is the cost of goods reduction program, on especially the TWINSCAN program, is significant, and we have reached all targets in 2003. We will reach all targets in 2004.

當然，毛利率假設基本上是基於三大支柱。也就是說，首先，我們工具的所有權價值及其改進將推動 ASP 上漲。那是一個。第二，降低商品成本計劃，特別是 TWINSCAN 計劃，意義重大，我們在 2003 年已經實現了所有目標。2004年我們將實現所有目標。

And number three is the volume. So, volume will also have an effect on the gross margin because we will have a better load. So, it is not only the gross margin. It does not only hinge on the ASP improvement but all the pillars are based on it.

第三個是音量。因此，產量也會對毛利率產生影響，因為我們的負荷會更好。因此，這不僅僅是毛利率的問題。它不僅取決於 ASP 的改進，而且所有支柱都基於它。

So, if I can summarize. Basically, supply and demand is going to work on time regardless of FX? But you are not pinning gross margin comments upon that?

所以，如果我可以總結一下的話。基本上，無論外匯如何，供給和需求都會按時發揮作用？但您並沒有對此發表毛利率評論？

Correct.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji. Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Uche from JP Morgan. Just a follow-up question on the margin discussion. Can you characterize for me how the margins work between refabs and new tools? I was under the impression that refabs have very high margins.

摩根大通的 Uche。這只是關於保證金討論的一個後續問題。您能為我描述一下改造工具和新工具之間的利潤率如何嗎？我印像中翻新產品的利潤率非常高。

Sorry, I missed that Uche.

抱歉，我錯過了那個 Uche。

Can you just characterize for me how the margins of refurbished tools work? I have always been under the impression that refurbished tools tend to have very high margins. But you were talking about having scanners as well as refabs now. Are the margins on those type of tools fairly high?

您能否為我描述一下翻新工具的利潤率如何？我一直認為翻新工具的利潤往往非常高。但您現在談論的是擁有掃描器和翻新設備。這類工具的利潤率是否相當高？

Well, they sometimes are but they sometimes are not. I mean they really are all over the place. It depends on the moulding time that we can get our hands on the tool. The eagerness with which a customer wants to get rid of the tool and that changes. That changes per customer, per week of the month. So, it changes per product type. So it is basically all over the place.

嗯，有時是，但有時不是。我的意思是它們確實無所不在。這取決於我們能拿到工具的成型時間。客戶想要擺脫該工具的急切心情改變了。每個客戶、每個月每週都會有所變動。因此，它會根據產品類型而變化。所以它基本上無所不在。

Okay.

好的。

Very difficult to forecast and I sympathize with you with your models on that one. But on average they tend to trend towards the normal product margins. But, as Peter said, we can get some real excursions around that average.

預測起來非常困難，我對您的模型深表同情。但平均而言，它們趨向於正常的產品利潤率。但是，正如彼得所說，我們可以得到一些圍繞該平均值的實際偏差。

Okay. Now just on the 248 200mm tools. Let us just take a typical example of a mature platform. What sort of margins do you think in the cycle could be considered peak margin on those type of tools?

好的。現在僅使用 248 個 200 毫米工具。我們僅舉一個成熟平台的典型例子。您認為在周期內什麼樣的利潤率可以被視為此類工具的峰值利潤率？

I think we have only got the comment on peak margins for the company. I do not want to give out any gross margins on any particular product line of a competitive nature.

我認為我們只得到了有關公司峰值利潤率的評論。我不想透露任何具有競爭性質的特定產品線的毛利率。

Fair enough. Yes.

很公平。是的。

What we have said is that, given it is a decent peak as opposed to a small molehill, which will probably occur in 2005 to the industry, if the forecasts currently are correct. We expect to get gross margins back towards levels that we had in the previous peak in 2000. From memory, they were just over 40%. So of that order for the next peak, providing it is a decent sized peak.

我們所說的是，鑑於這是一個相當大的峰值，而不是小丘，如果目前的預測正確的話，2005 年該行業可能會出現這種情況。我們預計毛利率將恢復到 2000 年的高峰。根據記憶，他們剛好超過 40%。因此，對於下一個山峰，只要它是一個大小合適的山峰即可。

Right. The question now is that, given the fact that you have spent quite a lot of effort for working the operations. Do you have any chance that peak margins this time, taking in all the restructuring, should be higher than it was in the last peak?

正確的。現在的問題是，鑑於您已經為開展這些行動付出了相當多的努力。考慮到所有的重組，這次的峰值利潤率是否有可能高於上次的峰值？

No reason to really think that they can be higher than the last peak actually. It is a kind of interesting question. We have not rehearsed this one. No reason to believe they would be higher than the last one. About the same is all we can say. I do not think that the peak this time is going to be kind of as breathtaking as the peak last time. So everything was in our favor last time around and therefore I do no think we are going to exceed that on average.

實際上沒有理由真正認為它們能夠比上一個高峰更高。這是一個有趣的問題。我們還沒有排練過這個。沒有理由相信它們會比上一個更高。我們只能說大致相同。我認為這次的高峰不會像上次那樣令人驚嘆。所以上次一切都對我們有利，因此我認為我們的平均成績不會超過這個數字。

But let us see. Another year to go yet. Who knows?

但讓我們看看。還有一年的時間。誰知道呢？

Yes, but it is a little early to say that. Let us see how the second half of the year develops. How the order intake goes. How the [inaudible] prices are basically holding or going up. See how the cost of goods reduction program is going. I think these things are very important I think what we have said is we see no reason why they could not be at that level. I think we need to see some proof in some other areas to be certain to say we think we can exceed it.

是的，但是現在這麼說還太早。讓我們看看下半年的情況如何。訂單進展如何。[聽不清楚]價格基本上保持穩定或上漲。看看商品成本降低計畫進度如何。我認為這些事情非常重要，我認為我們已經說過，我們沒有理由認為它們不能達到那個水平。我認為我們需要在其他一些領域看到一些證據才能確定地說我們認為我們可以超越它。

Okay, and just one last question on the same topic. At the operating level, given that you have taken a lot of cost out, and you are still taking cost out. Assuming you maintain the same type of margins, will you be assuming that the operating margins will be higher than the last peak?

好的，關於同一主題，我還有最後一個問題。在營運層面，假設你已經削減了很多成本，而且你仍在削減成本。假設您維持相同類型的利潤率，您是否會假設營業利潤率會高於上一個高峰？

Yes, I think that could be a fair assumption. But like I said, it is too early. We need to see some more data points in terms of orders, and ASPs, and cost of goods reductions, volumes, that will build our confidence to be able to say that.

是的，我認為這是一個合理的假設。但正如我所說，現在還為時過早。我們需要看到更多關於訂單、平均售價、商品成本降低和數量的數據點，這將增強我們的信心。

We have kind of helped you with the answer in what we are giving you. It is not our job to do that, I do not think, and we decline that one. But we do know now what we expect in gross margin terms. We have been quite clear with the band of SG&A and R&D. And therefore I am sure your model is better equipped than me to get down to the operating margin levels. I would like you to probably do that part of the job yourself actually.

我們在給您的答案中已經在某種程度上幫助了您。我認為這不是我們的工作，我們拒絕這樣做。但我們現在確實知道我們對毛利率的期望。我們對銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用的範圍已經非常清楚。因此，我確信您的模型比我的模型更能達到營業利潤率水準。我實際上希望你能自己完成這部分工作。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Peter Testa. Please go ahead sir.

我們有來自 Peter Testa 先生的後續問題。先生，請繼續。

Last one. Just noticing on China that SMIC is shown up in your projected top 10 spenders. China is now 11% of the backlog. Can you give us an idea of what you see? What you are seeing is different? What you see SMIC doing? What do you expect China as a proportion of backlog to continue progressing? Just some comment there please.

最後一個。剛剛注意到，在中國，中芯國際出現在您預測的前十大支出者之列。中國目前佔積壓量的11%。您能告訴我們您所看到的情況嗎？您看到的內容有什麼不同嗎？您認為中芯國際在做什麼？您預計中國積壓貨物的比例會繼續提高嗎？請發表一些評論。

China, anything that is less than kind of 25% has the habit of going up and down. We get an order and then we ship it off, and it goes up again, it goes down again. So China is in there. It was not in there last time we talked, I believe. So, please bear in mind that is a snapshot in time and goes up and down quite a bit.

中國，任何低於 25% 的水平都有上下波動的習慣。我們收到訂單，然後將其發貨，價格再次上漲，然後再次下降。所以中國也在其中。我相信，上次我們談話時它不在那裡。因此，請記住，這只是一個時間快照，並且會上下波動很大。

But, fundamentally, I believe, and this is a personal opinion on China having been there a few times and so on. I believe that China will continue to be an ever increasing part of our business lives. They are committed to developing a lot of new factories supplying integrated circuits. It is the next logical step for their development as an economic block.

但從根本上來說，我相信，這是我去過中國幾次後對中國的看法。我相信中國將繼續成為我們商業生活中日益重要的一部分。他們致力於開發大量供應積體電路的新工廠。這是他們發展成為經濟集團的下一個合理步驟。

And we see the holes being built in the ground and the cement being poured with Grace and SMIC, and the other investments of SMIC, and others also. It may go down to 8% next time round, who knows? But underlying that fluctuation, there is a positive dynamic in China. It never appeared on our slides at all until about a year and a half ago, and now it is never off our slides. And it is increasingly getting more and more significant for us. And will do so for a long time yet.

我們看到，地面上正在挖洞，水泥正在澆灌，裡面有格雷斯、中芯國際、中芯國際的其他投資以及其他公司的投資。下次可能降到 8%，誰知道呢？但在這種波動的背後，中國也呈現出正面的勢頭。直到大約一年半以前，它才出現在我們的幻燈片上，但現在它一直出現在我們的幻燈片上。它對我們來說也變得越來越重要。而這種狀況還會持續很長一段時間。

And China will stay as a bigger proportion than Europe on average over time?

而隨著時間的推移，中國的平均比例將高於歐洲嗎？

I personally believe China will overtake Europe relatively quickly. Yes, Stuart is just saying, from other things, a lot of the European suppliers are saying their next big investment will be in a low cost region, and often that is China.

我個人認為中國將相對快速地超越歐洲。是的，史都華只是說，從其他方面來看，許多歐洲供應商都表示，他們的下一個大投資將在低成本地區，而通常就是中國。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Jay Deahna Please go ahead sir.

我們有來自 Jay Deahna 先生的後續問題，請繼續，先生。

Thank you. Doug, what do you think your booking market share is for 300mm in the fourth quarter?

謝謝。道格，您認為第四季 300 毫米的預訂市佔率是多少？

Well, that is a tough one, Jay. It is difficult to have there. I will try and give you an answer but just to explain to the audience who think I should have these answers just bang like that. There are 300mm investments in Japan which we are not always as close to as we would like because we are new in Japan, and it is a tough road to haul, okay. You recognize that.

嗯，這是一個難題，傑伊。在那裡很難有。我會盡力給你一個答案，但只是為了向那些認為我應該有這些答案的觀眾解釋一下。我們在日本有 300 毫米的投資，但由於我們在日本還是新手，所以我們並不總是能像我們希望的那樣接近，而且這是一條艱難的道路，好吧。你認識到了這一點。

Outside Japan, we have a dominant, leadership position, dominant is a bit strong probably, in market share, both bookings and billings. If you take Japan into account, and the fact that Japan this year, Jay, as you will probably recognize is spending disproportionately well. Because it has been on holiday for a couple of years and there are some fabs being built there.

在日本以外，我們在市場份額、訂單量和營業額方面都佔據主導地位，可能佔據主導地位。如果你考慮到日本，而且傑伊，你可能會意識到今年日本的支出非常高。因為它已經休假幾年了，而且那裡正在建造一些晶圓廠。

I suspect that the booking number may come down slightly. Is it going to be 50% of world 300mm? I am kind of struggling here for an answer for you quantitatively. So that is the best I can do actually Jay.

我估計預訂數量可能會略有下降。這會占到全球 300 毫米的 50% 嗎？我在這裡很難為你提供定量的答案。所以這實際上是我能做的最好的事情了，傑伊。

To give you some information. Of total bookings about close to 70% was 200mm.

向您提供一些資訊。總預訂量中約有 70% 為 200 毫米。

200?

200？

Yes.

是的。

His question was what is the percentage of the 300mm?

他的問題是300毫米佔多少百分比？

Yes, but as you say, you can say what the 300mm are and then we just have to make an assessment of what you think the market was. But we do not have that data readily available here.

是的，但正如你所說，你可以說出 300 毫米是什麼，然後我們只需要對你認為的市場狀況進行評估。但我們這裡沒有現成的數據。

We are still doing very well, Jay, on 300mm and inside Japan we are trying to do a lot better, obviously.

傑伊，我們在 300 毫米方面仍然做得很好，在日本國內，我們顯然正在努力做得更好。

Yes, so if you combine it all, is your cycle expectation somewhere in the 40% range for new systems, for market share?

是的，所以如果把所有這些結合起來，你對新系統和市場份額的周期預期是否在 40% 左右？

Yes, I feel pretty comfortable with that. I would like to do better. Yes.

是的，我對此感到很舒服。我想做得更好。是的。

You think better is more likely or less likely?

您認為更好的可能性是更大還是更小？

I think better is desirable. How is that?

我認為更好的是可取的。怎麼樣？

Okay. And the other thing is that there was a question earlier. I believe the gentlemen from Goldman Sachs was asking it. He was trying to get a gauge on the fact that you are saying the backlog will be up in the first quarter, but bookings will probably be down. Were you talking in units or dollars? Because if 200mm was 70% of your bookings in the fourth quarter, and you get a mix shift at 300mm in the first or second quarter. It seems to me that your dollar value of bookings could potentially be a different picture than the unit picture?

好的。另一件事是之前有一個問題。我相信高盛的先生們正在問這個問題。他試圖判斷您所說的第一季積壓訂單將會增加，但預訂量可能會下降。您說的是單位還是美元？因為如果 200mm 佔您第四季訂單的 70%，而您在第一季或第二季獲得了 300mm 的混合轉變。在我看來，您的預訂金額可能與單位金額不同？

That is correct, Jay. The question was specifically the first quarter, the previous question, right?

沒錯，傑伊。這個問題具體是第一季度，也就是之前的問題，對嗎？

Right.

正確的。

And the gentleman in Goldman Sachs, if they have such people. They have nothing to do by the way. That was a joke for those who cannot see my face. So, it was Q1 and I do not think the booking mix is going to change substantially in Q1. But also it is true that later year it is going to change to 300mm. If it is Q2, or even if it is Q1, it will have an impact, obviously, on the dollar value bookings and ASP as well.

還有高盛的那位先生，如果他們有這樣的人的話。順便說一句，他們沒什麼事可做。對於那些看不到我臉的人來說，這是一個笑話。所以，這是第一季度，我認為第一季的預訂組合不會發生重大變化。但確實，明年它將變為 300 毫米。如果是第二季度，或者即使是第一季度，它顯然也會對美元價值預訂和平均售價產生影響。

I do not know when that transition is going to come actually. So I just hope it will not come in Q1 because Q1 is on top of us right now.

我其實不知道這種轉變何時會發生。所以我只是希望它不會出現在第一季度，因為第一季現在是我們的首要任務。

So we are totally clear. You are saying that orders should be down sequentially in 1Q. Both in terms of the euro or dollar value and units. The backlog should be up both in units and currency, sequentially?

所以我們完全清楚。您說的是第一季的訂單量應該會比去年同期下降。無論是以歐元還是美元的價值和單位來計算。積壓數量應該按單位和貨幣順序增加嗎？

That may be the case. We will have a bigger backlog but it does not mean to say that our bookings rate will be as high in Q1 as it was in Q4. I have not extended my thinking that far to be that precise actually. But the major question from most people has been, will your backlog be up or down at the end of the first quarter? And I am saying I believe slightly up.

或許確實如此。我們的積壓訂單會增多，但這並不意味著第一季的預訂率會和第四季一樣高。實際上，我的思考還沒有延伸到那麼精確。但大多數人的主要問題是，第一季末你的積壓訂單會增加還是減少？我說的是我相信略有上升。

Yes, and I think it is definitely true in units. What you are suggesting, Jay, we said that could very well either in Q1 or in Q2. There will be a value added difference because of a shift to 300mm which will have to occur somewhere in 2004, for us to be able to ship that in the second half or in the first quarter of 05. So that is correct. I mean in terms of value that could be different.

是的，我認為在單位上確實如此。傑伊，您所建議的，我們說這很可能在第一季或第二季發生。由於向 300 毫米的轉變將在 2004 年的某個時候發生，因此將出現增值差異，以便我們能夠在 05 年下半年或第一季發貨。這是正確的。我的意思是，就價值而言，可能會有所不同。

Right.

正確的。

Good news, though, because we really have a Q1 in which we do not lose order book value. And I am saying this time round we will probably will have a Q1 in which we [..]. We used to have a Q1 in which we lose order book value, and I am saying this time we will probably gain order book value in Q1.

不過，好消息是，因為我們在第一季確實沒有損失訂單價值。我想說的是，這次我們可能會在第一季看到 [...]我們曾經在第一季損失過訂單簿價值，但我想說，這次我們可能會在第一季增加訂單簿價值。

Yes, I mean, going intto the margin issue. I just do not see how you could not have higher margins this cycle, given the near-term profile in 200mm. But the cyclical peak margin is going to be a lot more 300mm intensive. And I can see that is where you would be hedging a little bit because you have go to chop some wood to get there, right?

是的，我的意思是討論利潤問題。考慮到 200 毫米的近期概況，我只是不明白為什麼這個週期你不能獲得更高的利潤率。但周期性峰值利潤率將會更集中在300毫米。我知道你會稍微規避風險，因為你必須砍伐一些木材才能到達那裡，對嗎？

That is correct.

沒錯。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

To the call administrator. It is 5.30pm. We do have a schedule. Therefore, I think we have to call a halt to the questions at this point in time. Thanks for all those who took part and asked your usual difficult and torturous questions. I hope we also gave you difficult and torturous answers, and look forward to seeing you at the end of Q1.

致呼叫管理員。現在是下午 5 點 30 分。我們確實有一個時間表。因此，我認為我們現在必須停止提問。感謝所有參與並提出那些通常困難且令人折磨的問題的人。我希望我們也給了您困難和折磨的答案，並期待在第一季末見到您。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML Annual Results 2003 conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2003 年年度業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。