艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2003 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the ASML annual results 2003 conference call on January 15, 2003.

歡迎參加 2003 年 1 月 15 日舉行的 ASML 2003 年度業績電話會議。

Throughout today's presentation all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

在今天的演示中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

After the presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

演講結束後將有機會提問。

If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please press the star key followed by zero on your push-button phone for operator assistance.

如果任何與會者聽不清會議內容，請在您的按鍵式電話上按星號鍵，然後按零，以獲得接線員幫助。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Dunn.

我現在想把會議交給 Doug Dunn 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you Janet.

謝謝珍妮特。

Just to correct your eloquent voice, it is actually January 2004 but never mind.

只是為了糾正你雄辯的聲音，實際上是 2004 年 1 月，但沒關係。

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for listening.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的聆聽。

I am going to actually turn you over to Craig DeYoung who will just read out to you the first paragraph, or the first two pages of Winnie the Pooh.

我實際上要把你交給克雷格·德揚，他只會給你念第一段，或者小熊維尼的前兩頁。

Sorry, the Safe Harbor statement.

抱歉，安全港聲明。

Craig, over to you.

克雷格，交給你了。

Actually, I would also like to remind you of the protocol for the call.

實際上，我還想提醒您通話的協議。

The timing of the call will be one hour and with us is Doug Dunn and Peter Wennink to answer your questions.

通話時間為一小時，Doug Dunn 和 Peter Wennink 將與我們一起回答您的問題。

We ask that you confine your questions to one with one small follow-up please.

我們要求您將您的問題限制在一個小的跟進中。

So we can get the maximum number of callers in as we can.

所以我們可以盡可能地獲得最大數量的調用者。

So, having said that, I will remind you that the matters discussed during this presentation include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic conditions; product and pricing; manufacturing efficiencies; new product developments; ability to enforce patents; availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment; trade environment and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

因此，話雖如此，我會提醒您，本演示文稿中討論的事項包括受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於經濟狀況；產品和定價；製造效率；新產品開發；執行專利的能力；原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性；向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的貿易環境和其他風險。

I missed that Craig, could you repeat?

我錯過了那個克雷格，你能重複一遍嗎？

I will get with you after the meeting.

會議結束後我會和你在一起。

Having said that, let us open it up for the first question.

話雖如此，讓我們打開第一個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Actually, if I may, could I just make two or three sentences just before we begin, just maybe to give the questioners time to gather their thoughts.

實際上，如果可以的話，我能不能在開始之前先說兩三句話，也許只是讓提問者有時間收集他們的想法。

So, we are reporting on the fourth quarter and the full year of 2003.

因此，我們報告的是 2003 年第四季度和全年。

Indeed, a year ago it was a pretty desperate climate for the industry, and those of us who remember that very well, I guess.

事實上，一年前，對於這個行業來說，這是一個相當絕望的氣氛，我猜我們這些記得很清楚的人。

What a difference a year makes.

一年有什麼不同。

Here we are today with a growing backlog rather than a decreasing one.

今天，我們的積壓工作越來越多，而不是減少。

A company which has moved from losses into profit in the fourth quarter, and that trend will continue.

一家在第四季度從虧損轉為盈利的公司，這種趨勢將繼續下去。

A company which was committed to having a cash balance of $1bn by this point in time has achieved it.

一家承諾在這個時間點之前擁有 10 億美元現金餘額的公司已經實現了這一目標。

Sorry, euros, thank you Stuart.

對不起，歐元，謝謝斯圖爾特。

A company which committed to taking its working capital down and has done so substantially.

一家承諾降低營運資金並已大幅降低營運資金的公司。

A company which also committed introducing a breathtaking range of new products, unequalled before, and we have done that also.

這家公司還致力於推出前所未有的一系列令人驚嘆的新產品，我們也這樣做了。

I remind you the fact that we have introduced and taken the first order for an immersion tool, that we have shipped the first two [fill] 157 tools into development centers for customers to evaluate and to learn the techniques for the eventual use of 157, probably as an immersion technology.

我提醒您，我們已經推出並接受了沉浸式工具的第一個訂單，我們已將前兩個 [fill] 157 工具運送到開發中心，供客戶評估和學習最終使用 157 的技術，可能是一種沉浸式技術。

And we maintain our leadership position in development of of EUV.

我們在 EUV 的開發中保持領先地位。

And, of course, when it comes to volume manufacturing, we are a world leader in the shipments of 193 tools destined for real production environments.

當然，在批量製造方面，我們在 193 種用於實際生產環境的工具的出貨量方面處於世界領先地位。

So, a very, very difficult year, the worst year ever in the industry, but fortunately saved very much by the fourth quarter, which showed a breathtaking turnaround, and one that I think is built on very, very firm foundations.

因此，這是非常非常困難的一年，是該行業有史以來最糟糕的一年，但幸運的是到第四季度節省了很多，這顯示出驚人的轉變，我認為這是建立在非常非常堅實的基礎上的。

Therefore, we can look forward to four or six or eight quarters of sustained solid growth.

因此，我們可以期待四、六、八季度的持續穩健增長。

And, believe me, I cannot tell you how pleasant it is for me to be able to say that to you.

而且，相信我，我無法告訴你我能對你這麼說是多麼愉快。

So, given that small preamble showing where I am coming from on this, I will now turn it over to your worthy selves for the torturous questions I am sure you are going to put to myself and my colleagues here.

所以，鑑於我在這方面的出發點的小序言，我現在將把它交給你有價值的自己，我相信你會向我自己和我的同事提出這些折磨人的問題。

[Operator instructions]

【操作說明】

The first question comes from Mr. Jay Deahna.

第一個問題來自 Jay Deahna 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

That would be Jay Deahna with JP Morgan.

那將是摩根大通的 Jay Deahna。

Doug, it is unfortunate that the majority of your tenure has been downturn-related.

道格，不幸的是，你的大部分任期都與經濟衰退有關。

On the other hand, congratulations on keeping up the product development commercialization excellence while transitioning the company into a focused operating and financially managed operation.

另一方面，祝賀您在將公司轉變為專注於運營和財務管理的運營的同時保持產品開發商業化的卓越。

Thanks Jay.

謝謝杰。

That was not a question, but I appreciate your words.

這不是一個問題，但我很欣賞你的話。

I am sure as the years go by my successor will do even better.

我相信隨著歲月的流逝，我的繼任者會做得更好。

Here are the questions.

以下是問題。

First of all, in light of the fact that you are seeing, I guess you could say, a greater than expected surge in 200mm demand.

首先，鑑於您所看到的事實，我想您可以說 200 毫米的需求激增超出預期。

Does that change your peak unit expectation for the cycle?

這是否會改變您對該週期的峰值單位預期？

Do you still think it’s in the 700/800 range?

您還認為它在 700/800 範圍內嗎？

Where do you think it is for the peak for the cycle?

您認為周期的峰值在哪裡？

And then secondly, what is the timing now, do you expect the timing to get to breakeven at 130 units and is that all new systems only?

其次，現在的時機是什麼，您是否預計時機會在 130 台時達到收支平衡，並且僅限於所有新系統嗎？

Well, I will answer your questions in reverse because that is easier.

好吧，我會反過來回答你的問題，因為這樣更容易。

The 130 breakeven point, Jay and other guys and girls on the line, is new systems only, yes.

130 的盈虧平衡點，Jay 和其他在線的男孩和女孩，只是新系統，是的。

When we will get to that, I will not be specific to the month or quarter but this year, 2004, we will pass through that, down to that barrier.

當我們做到這一點時，我不會具體到月份或季度，但今年，2004 年，我們將通過那個，直到那個障礙。

First half or second half, Doug?

上半場還是下半場，道格？

It is going to be second half, Jay, okay.

這將是下半場，傑，好吧。

I think, to be honest, there is a slight chance in Q2, but most likely second half.

我認為，說實話，第二季度的機會很小，但很可能是下半年。

It is a pretty imprecise thing to stab at.

這是一件非常不精確的事情。

We are looking at our programs that we have on various items, second half, maybe end of Q3.

我們正在研究我們在各種項目上的計劃，下半年，也許是第三季度末。

And only the Dutch part, because we have finalized some of it.

而且只有荷蘭語部分，因為我們已經完成了其中的一些。

Well, the 130 applies to the world, unfortunately.

好吧，不幸的是，130 適用於世界。

Your first question was the number of units for the next peak, right?

您的第一個問題是下一個峰值的單位數，對嗎？

New units, I guess, right?

我猜是新單位，對吧？

New units.

新單位。

Okay that is fine.

好的，沒關係。

And you actually gave a pretty good answer yourself, which I would expect of you, actually. 700-ish, I guess, could be the next peak.

實際上，您自己給出了一個很好的答案，實際上，我希望您能做到。我猜，700-ish 可能是下一個高峰。

Some would have it at 650, some at, I guess, 800, and I guess that is the respectable range.

有些人會在650，有些人，我猜，800，我想這是可觀的範圍。

The next peak I would anticipate being 2005.

我預計的下一個高峰是 2005 年。

It will not reach those levels this year.

今年不會達到這些水平。

I think there is not the impetus yet to get us up there.

我認為目前還沒有動力讓我們達到目標。

Nor is there, perhaps, the capacity with the suppliers around in a balanced way for all the equipment that will go to make up the equivalent in implanters and tracks and other things as well.

也許，供應商也沒有能力以平衡的方式處理所有設備，這些設備將構成注入機、軌道和其他東西的等價物。

So that will be 2005 number in my opinion, Jay.

所以在我看來，這將是 2005 年的數字，傑伊。

And you probably got it about right, as good as I can guess as the same number actually.

而且您可能猜對了，實際上我可以猜到相同的數字。

And to pre-empt, perhaps, part of your question, therefore we can get there.

也許是為了搶占您的部分問題，因此我們可以到達那裡。

We can do our fair share.

我們可以盡我們的一份力。

You can judge yourself our market share.

您可以自行判斷我們的市場份額。

We are roughly 40% by volume today.

我們今天的銷量大約是 40%。

We can get there.

我們可以到達那裡。

You also asked the mix between 200mm and 300mm.

您還詢問了 200 毫米和 300 毫米之間的組合。

That is a tough one.

這是一個艱難的過程。

I think right now we are seeing a lot of 200mm because the capacity exists and it is easy to switch on.

我認為現在我們看到了很多 200 毫米，因為容量存在並且很容易打開。

It’s existing fabs that are working well, so a bang a few more tools in to get more output.

現有的晶圓廠運轉良好，因此需要使用更多工具來獲得更多產量。

It is also why the refurbished market is pretty strong just now.

這也是為什麼剛剛翻新的市場相當強勁的原因。

I think that is going to change some time in this year, probably in the second half, as all that refurbished stuff will dry up because people want to use it for volume, not to sell it on to somebody else.

我認為這將在今年的某個時候發生變化，可能在下半年，因為所有翻新的東西都會枯竭，因為人們想將其用於數量，而不是出售給其他人。

The 200mm spare space will begin to dry up to some extent, not totally obviously.

200mm 的備用空間會在一定程度上開始乾涸，並不完全明顯。

And people will feel more confident to go populate all the 300mm fabs which are currently only running at 20% of their capacity, their shells, right now and relatively empty shells.

人們會更有信心去填充所有目前僅以 20% 的產能運行的 300 毫米晶圓廠，它們的外殼，現在和相對空的外殼。

So, I think we are going to see a change in mix towards the end of this year, as 300mm starts to pick up the slack, so to speak, once we have exhausted the 200mm expansion.

所以，我認為我們將在今年年底看到組合的變化，因為 300 毫米開始彌補不足，可以說，一旦我們用盡了 200 毫米的擴展。

That's great, thanks very much

太好了，非常感謝

The next question comes from Mr. John Pitzer.

下一個問題來自約翰·皮策先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

請說出您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題，先生。

Yes, it is Credit Suisse First Boston.

是的，它是瑞士信貸第一波士頓。

Doug, you started to answer my question, talking about the mix between new tools and used tools in the fourth quarter.

道格，你開始回答我的問題，談到第四季度新工具和舊工具之間的混合。

Do you expect that mix to be about the same going into Q1?

您是否預計第一季度的組合會大致相同？

And can you talk about overall order trends that you see going into the first quarter of 2004?

您能否談談您看到的進入 2004 年第一季度的總體訂單趨勢？

I think the Q1 mix, John, just to be precise there.

我認為 Q1 組合，約翰，準確地說。

It is difficult to guess much beyond Q1.

很難猜測 Q1 之後的情況。

Q3 and Q4 are still unknowns and you heard my comment there.

Q3 和 Q4 仍然是未知數，您在那裡聽到了我的評論。

I think the Q1 mix will be similar, and there will be a fair mix of used tools in there.

我認為第一季度的組合將是相似的，其中會有相當多的二手工具組合。

We expect, in fact, in Q1 in general terms to kind of beat the usual trend where Q1 is a low bookings quarter.

事實上，我們預計第一季度總體上會超過第一季度預訂量較低的通常趨勢。

I would stick my neck out a little bit here and suggest that we can probably see the backlog increase in Q1, both in units and in value.

我會在這裡稍微伸出一些脖子，並建議我們可能會看到第一季度的積壓增加，無論是單位還是價值。

Whether you measure the value in euros or dollars is up to you.

以歐元還是美元衡量價值取決於您。

I would take euros because that is a more conservative view.

我會選擇歐元，因為這是一個更保守的觀點。

So, I think that Q1 is going to be a pretty good booking period because of the momentum that we see sustained through the Christmas break and into January.

因此，我認為第一季度將是一個相當不錯的預訂期，因為我們看到的勢頭一直持續到聖誕節假期和一月份。

I could be wrong there, but I think we are going to buck the trend and see good growth-- Well, not good growth, modest but positive growth in Q1 on the bookings front.

我可能錯了，但我認為我們將逆勢而上，看到良好的增長——嗯，不是很好的增長，第一季度在預訂方面的增長適度但正增長。

And then, Doug, could you speak a little bit about the 193 immersion tool?

然後，Doug，你能談談 193 沉浸式工具嗎？

When do you think you will see competitors into the marketplace?

您認為何時會看到競爭對手進入市場？

My guess is for about the first half of this year you will be the sole provider.

我的猜測是今年上半年你將成為唯一的供應商。

How many units do you think you can book on the 193 immersion tool?

您認為可以在 193 沉浸式工具上預訂多少個單元？

And can you talk a little bit about the ASP increase you are getting from 193 dry to 193 immersion?

你能談談你從 193 乾燥到 193 浸沒的 ASP 增加嗎？

So, 193 immersion is a latecomer to the party, right?

所以，193沉浸是晚會的人吧？

I guess a year ago very few people understood, including myself by the way, the value of adding water, just add water.

我猜一年前很少有人了解，包括我自己，順便說一句，加水的價值，加水就行了。

I do it to my whisky all the time but never to my steppers and scanners.

我一直對我的威士忌這樣做，但從來沒有對我的步進器和掃描儀這樣做。

It does not improve the whisky, but it does seem to improve the steppers and scanners.

它不會改善威士忌，但似乎確實改善了步進器和掃描儀。

So, it is a new trend, and I have got to say to my organization: Well done, chaps.

所以，這是一種新趨勢，我必須對我的組織說：幹得好，伙計們。

To get that out in a year and take the first order was a pretty special performance.

在一年內完成並獲得第一筆訂單是非常特別的表現。

We were, let me say, lucky a little bit.

讓我說，我們有點幸運。

And you have got to understand this because you have got to place some bets on the company shortly.

你必須理解這一點，因為你必須很快對公司下注。

The TWINSCAN system is ideally suited for a wet environment, so to speak, in that it has two chucks.

TWINSCAN 系統非常適合潮濕環境，可以這麼說，因為它有兩個卡盤。

So you can do all the measurements off-line in the dry chuck, without having the problems of refractions on the surface of the water and so on.

因此，您可以在乾式夾頭中離線進行所有測量，而不會出現水面折射等問題。

Transfer those measurements to the wet chuck for exposure.

將這些測量值轉移到濕卡盤上進行曝光。

So, a big spin-off benefit of the two chuck solution is that when you go to a water-based system, boy it does give a big, big advantage to the customer who can perform measurements in the dry, known, well-tried, well-tested environment.

因此，兩個夾頭解決方案的一大附帶好處是，當您使用基於水的系統時，它確實為客戶提供了巨大的優勢，他們可以在乾燥的、已知的、久經考驗的環境中進行測量，經過良好測試的環境。

Also a bit of luck with the bottom service of our lens system, which was flat rather than convex, which allows the water meniscus to better stay with it.

我們的鏡頭系統的底部服務也有點運氣，它是平的而不是凸的，這使得水彎月面更好地留在它上面。

So, we had a bit of luck but still, we got them out in time.

所以，我們有一點運氣，但我們還是及時把它們弄出來了。

We are going to sell this year between, I do not know, five and ten systems, I guess, of that order.

今年我們將在這個訂單中銷售五到十個系統，我不知道。

There will be early development tools for our customers who want to explore the new technology, find out how the water interfaces with various processes and other things.

我們將為想要探索新技術的客戶提供早期開發工具，了解水如何與各種流程和其他事物交互。

Learn how to use it, in other words.

換句話說，學習如何使用它。

The true value of immersion will not come through until you have a lens designed specifically for it, with a numerical aperture greater than one.

除非您擁有專為沈浸感設計的鏡頭，其數值孔徑大於 1，否則沉浸感的真正價值不會顯現。

In other words, a lens that will not work in air but will work under water, so to speak.

換句話說，可以說是一種不能在空氣中工作但可以在水下工作的鏡頭。

And they will be the real winning products.

他們將是真正的獲勝產品。

And we have got those lens designs coming through as we speak.

在我們發言時，我們已經完成了這些鏡頭設計。

And we will be shipping those kind of products a few quarters down the track from now.

從現在開始，我們將在幾個季度後運送這類產品。

So you will see this year a handful or two of tools using development work by our customers.

所以今年你會看到一兩個工具使用我們客戶的開發工作。

And then after that, about a year afterwards, you will see the real improved resolution tools coming through with specially designed lenses.

然後在那之後，大約一年後，您將看到真正改進的分辨率工具通過專門設計的鏡頭出現。

And Doug, you still feel you have at least a six-month lead on the competition here?

還有道格，你仍然覺得你在這裡的比賽中至少領先六個月嗎？

If it were only six months, I would feel disappointed.

如果只有六個月，我會感到失望。

I personally think it is more than that.

我個人認為不止於此。

It is difficult to tell because they are good.

很難說，因為它們很好。

We have heard a lot of noise from the competition, but we have got the orders.

我們從競爭中聽到了很多噪音，但我們得到了訂單。

And then lastly, Doug.

最後，道格。

Two of your larger customers, you have extended these option agreements to them.

您的兩個大客戶，您已將這些期權協議擴展到他們。

I am kind of curious when you look at the Q4 order rates.

當您查看第四季度的訂單率時，我有點好奇。

Did they include those two large customers or can we expect to see a surge from those guys in the first half of this year?

他們是否包括這兩個大客戶，或者我們可以期待在今年上半年看到這些人的激增？

Peter is the architect of our option program.

彼得是我們期權計劃的建築師。

He is dying to tell you.

他很想告訴你。

So come on Peter.

所以來吧，彼得。

It is true, John, that those got converted into cold orders.

約翰，確實，這些都變成了冷訂單。

So, they are in there.

所以，他們在那裡。

Let us hear it for Peter, yes.

讓我們為彼得聽一聽，是的。

But more to come, Peter.

但還有更多，彼得。

Is that the way to think about it?

是這樣想的嗎？

Sorry, more?

對不起，更多？

More to come?

還有更多嗎？

Well, those will not be options.

好吧，這些不會是選擇。

What customers now want, if you offered them an option program so that they can choose that moment in which they can call the order, they call it the moment that they give you the option.

客戶現在想要什麼，如果您向他們提供了一個選項計劃，以便他們可以選擇他們可以調用訂單的那一刻，他們就會在他們給您選擇的那一刻調用它。

Yes, last year we wanted to sell tools and they wanted to give us orders for options.

是的，去年我們想銷售工具，他們想給我們訂購選項。

This year we wanted to take options, they want to take the tools.

今年我們想要選擇，他們想要使用工具。

So, I think the option program has served, at least two quarters in 2003, quite well and gave us a liquidity advantage, and gave us an early sight on some orders that we could book.

所以，我認為期權計劃至少在 2003 年的兩個季度中發揮了很好的作用，給了我們流動性優勢，讓我們提前看到了一些可以預訂的訂單。

But currently what customers want is not options, they want tools.

但目前客戶想要的不是選擇，而是工具。

Right, thanks guys.

好的，謝謝各位。

The next question comes from Mr. Matt Gable.

下一個問題來自 Matt Gable 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Matt, sorry, this is Craig.

馬特，對不起，我是克雷格。

Before you start, could I just ask all the listeners and question askers to ask just one question and one follow-up, just in consideration of all the rest of the audience, so we can get as many in as possible.

在你開始之前，我能否請所有聽眾和提問者只問一個問題和一個跟進，只是考慮到所有其他觀眾，這樣我們才能盡可能多地參與進來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Go ahead Matt.

繼續馬特。

Hi.

你好。

Just had a question about the linearity of bookings in Q4 and follow-up.

剛剛對第四季度的預訂線性度和後續行動提出了疑問。

Do you think in Q1 that backlog ASP will increase sequentially?

您認為在 Q1 積壓的 ASP 會依次增加嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

It is a tough one to call.

這是一個很難打電話的。

Depends on the mix as you know, mostly mix.

如您所知，取決於混合，主要是混合。

I mean our backlog ASP is not disappointing.

我的意思是我們的積壓 ASP 並不令人失望。

It is really a function of the mix.

它實際上是混合的功能。

It is richer in used tools and 8 inch tools.

它的二手工具和8英寸工具更豐富。

And, therefore, they do sell at a lower price because they produce less silicon per hour.

因此，它們確實以較低的價格出售，因為它們每小時生產的矽更少。

So, it is by no means, as far as I am concerned, a negative.

因此，就我而言，這絕不是負面的。

I think one or two of my colleagues on the call in here maybe think it is.

我想我在電話會議上的一兩個同事可能認為是這樣。

And it is just a function of mix.

它只是混合的功能。

It is difficult to tell what is going to come in Q1.

很難說第一季度會發生什麼。

And I think there is still a lot more demand pent up for quick release capacity, which probably means that Q1 will stimulate also a lot of 200mm, and even some more refurbished tools to come into the backlog.

而且我認為對於快拆能力還有很多需求被壓抑，這可能意味著第一季度也會刺激大量的 200mm，甚至還有更多的翻新工具進入積壓。

So, perhaps it will be the same mix as we see today and, therefore, similar ASP.

因此，也許這將是我們今天看到的相同組合，因此，類似的 ASP。

I would like to add to that, Doug.

我想補充一點，道格。

We did mention that we expect that 300mm demand in the second half of the year will actually increase.

我們確實提到，我們預計下半年 300 毫米的需求實際上會增加。

So, that will need to find its way through the order backlog in the first half of the year.

因此，這需要通過今年上半年的訂單積壓來解決。

Whether it is Q1 or Q2, that remains to be seen.

無論是 Q1 還是 Q2，這還有待觀察。

What we are currently seeing is indeed this trend of 200mm additions to the capacity of our customers.

我們目前看到的確實是客戶產能增加 200 毫米的趨勢。

But it has to grow to 300mm in the first of the year.

但它必須在今年的第一年增長到 300 毫米。

So, that will mean growing ASP in the backlog.

因此，這將意味著積壓中的 ASP 增加。

On the linearity thing.

關於線性的事情。

We actually had four good booking months, if you include September in that.

如果您將 9 月包括在內，我們實際上有四個不錯的預訂月份。

Four good booking months in one quarter is quite good going actually.

一個季度的四個良好的預訂月實際上是相當不錯的。

So, September and the three months of the quarter we had four good booking months.

因此，9 月和本季度的三個月我們有四個很好的預訂月份。

Fairly linear and, I suppose, a bit lumpy.

相當線性，我想，有點凹凸不平。

Obviously a bit of a lull over Christmas and the first part of January, as people take their well-earned vacations, but interest still happened strong out there.

聖誕節和 1 月上旬顯然有點平靜，因為人們度過了他們來之不易的假期，但那裡的興趣仍然很強烈。

So I think we are going to see less of a kind of a rush but a good solid incoming set of orders that will at least equal our outgoing orders.

因此，我認為我們將看到更少的匆忙，而是一組良好的穩定傳入訂單，至少將等於我們的傳出訂單。

And, therefore, we will have a neutral, positive book-bill ratio in the first quarter.

因此，我們將在第一季度獲得中性、正的賬面賬單比率。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

The next question comes from Mr. Ali Irani.

下一個問題來自阿里·伊拉尼先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, with CIBC World Markets.

是的，與 CIBC World Markets 合作。

Could you please help us identify, as we go through the first half of the year, what mix of customers you see ordering for new fab build and 300mm asset replacement cycle versus some of the line width improvements?

您能否幫助我們確定，當我們度過上半年時，您看到訂購新晶圓廠和 300 毫米資產更換週期的客戶與一些線寬改進的客戶組合是什麼？

And how long you see the line width improvement extendible under 200mm fab?

您看到線寬改進在 200mm 晶圓廠下可擴展多長時間？

And here, Doug, I am hoping you will give us a little bit of a view over the next 12 months of where you think your new 65nm 200mm offerings are going to play out in this cycle?

在這裡，Doug，我希望你能給我們一點看法，在接下來的 12 個月裡，你認為你的新 65nm 200mm 產品將在這個週期中發揮什麼作用？

Okay, you may be surprised, you perhaps would not be surprised, inside ASML we have different views on some things, and this is one of them.

好吧，你可能會驚訝，也許你不會驚訝，在 ASML 內部我們對一些事情有不同的看法，這就是其中之一。

One of my colleagues in this room, Mr. McIntosh, the well-known Scotsman, believes that 200mm is dead essentiallty, and 300mm is the only investment area that sensible customers will go.

我在這個房間裡的一位同事，著名的蘇格蘭人麥金托什先生認為，200mm 已經死了，300mm 是明智的客戶唯一會去的投資領域。

I happen to disagree, modestly, with Mr. McIntosh, and that is fair too.

謙虛地說，我碰巧不同意麥金托什先生的觀點，這也是公平的。

So, you get my answer, but since we allow you only one question, you only going to get one answer.

所以，你得到了我的答案，但由於我們只允許你提出一個問題，你只會得到一個答案。

So, you are only going to get mine and I will not allow Stuart to give you his answer.

所以，你只會得到我的，我不會讓斯圖爾特給你他的答案。

Well then, let me ask for this, maybe perhaps some color.

那麼，讓我問這個，也許是一些顏色。

You have been marketing this product for a couple of months now and capacity in the industry is very tight.

您已經營銷該產品幾個月了，該行業的產能非常緊張。

And you would think that there was some value perceived over the next six to eight quarters in extending the life of the 200mm fabs.

你會認為在接下來的 6 到 8 個季度內，延長 200 毫米晶圓廠的壽命會有一些價值。

So, perhaps, tangibly if you could help share with us what your customers are telling you in terms of potential bookings for those tools?

因此，如果您可以幫助與我們分享您的客戶在這些工具的潛在預訂方面告訴您的內容，那麼，也許，有形地？

So, there are a few customers, a randomly select bunch of customers, who have not yet, and probably should not yet, commit to 200mm but they want to go down the next node.

所以，有一些客戶，一群隨機選擇的客戶，他們還沒有也可能不應該承諾 200 毫米，但他們想進入下一個節點。

And they are the guys who are expressing interest, and strong interest, in advanced technology at 200mm.

他們是對 200 毫米的先進技術表現出興趣和強烈興趣的人。

Obviously, if you have a 300mm fab, it is probably-- Well, I would not say a waste of money, but it is maybe not the wisest investment to invest in 200mm leading edge if you have got a 300mm fab empty.

顯然，如果你有一個 300 毫米晶圓廠，它可能——嗯，我不會說浪費錢，但如果你有一個 300 毫米晶圓廠空置，投資 200 毫米前沿可能不是最明智的投資。

So, those guys are going to be inclined to go more for the solution at 300mm, for obvious long-term, benefit reasons.

因此，出於明顯的長期利益原因，這些人將傾向於更多地使用 300 毫米的解決方案。

So, think about the customers who are big but not quite big enough for 300mm.

所以，想想那些大但不夠大到 300 毫米的客戶。

Those kind of people, at the leading edge, want to take their existing fabs, which are quite good, well-constructed fabs, and just take them down as far as we can technology-wiseTherefore putting off the point in time they have to commit to an investment, which maybe for them is a bridge too far.

那些處於領先地位的人想要拿下他們現有的晶圓廠，這些晶圓廠非常好，結構良好的晶圓廠，並在技術上盡可能地把它們拆除，因此推遲他們必須承諾的時間點投資，這對他們來說可能是一座太遠的橋樑。

A big 300mm project.

一個 300 毫米的大型項目。

So, there is a handful of customers showing initial interest.

因此，有少數客戶表現出最初的興趣。

I am sure there will be more pop out of the woodwork as the time goes by.

我相信隨著時間的推移會有更多的木製品彈出。

And we are taking orders for the XT product as we speak.

我們正在接受 XT 產品的訂單。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Shekar Pramanick .

下一個問題來自 Shekar Pramanick 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, this Shekar Pramanick for Shekah.

是的，Shekah 的 Shekar Pramanick。

Maybe you could comment a little bit, with the increasing visibility that you have now?

隨著您現在的知名度越來越高，也許您可以發表一點評論？

Some of the expectations for shipments?

對出貨量的一些期望？

I know that you do not give a specific guidance but maybe some directional indication for shipments.

我知道您沒有給出具體的指導，但可能會給出一些發貨的方向指示。

And also if you could comment a little bit about targeted operating margins as we go forward?

另外，您能否在我們前進的過程中對目標營業利潤率發表一些評論？

As you have the cost improvements as we get to the lower break, the 130 unit breakeven level in the second half.

當我們進入較低的突破點時，您的成本得到了改善，下半年達到了 130 個單位的盈虧平衡水平。

But if you could maybe revisit what the target operating margin is?

但是，如果您可以重新審視目標營業利潤率是多少？

Okay, well, look we have got to leave you guys and gals some work to do.

好吧，好吧，看來我們得給你們和女孩們留下一些工作要做。

So we tell you what the backlog is and we tell you how much of the backlog is required in the next six months.

所以我們告訴你積壓是什麼，我們告訴你在接下來的六個月裡需要多少積壓。

And it is 80% of 124, you can do the sums yourself.

它是 124 的 80%，您可以自己計算總和。

It is roughly 100 and three or four systems round figures for the first six months.

前六個月大約是 100 和三到四個系統整數。

That is as far as I am going to go with giving you guidance on what we are going to ship in the next two quarters.

這就是我將為您提供有關我們將在接下來的兩個季度中發布的內容的指導。

Okay, so, I am sure you can get pretty close from that information and knowing the company.

好的，所以，我相信您可以從這些信息中獲得非常接近的信息並了解公司。

The other part of your question was operating margin.

您問題的另一部分是營業利潤率。

And, again, if I tell you all that then arguably we do not need you guys to do the analysis work for us.

而且，再一次，如果我告訴你們所有這些，那麼可以說我們不需要你們為我們做分析工作。

I say that with a smile on smile on my face.

我這樣說，臉上帶著微笑。

We do need you, obviously.

顯然，我們確實需要你。

What we will commit to is that we achieved 29% gross margin in Q4.

我們將承諾的是，我們在第四季度實現了 29% 的毛利率。

We are going to commit to increasing that by between 2% and 3% in Q1.

我們將承諾在第一季度將其提高 2% 到 3%。

And we are going to commit to a continual quarter-on-quarter improvement through the whole of next year, and probably through most of 2005, by the way, but not in significant amounts.

順便說一句，我們將承諾在整個明年，甚至可能在 2005 年的大部分時間裡，持續進行季度環比改進，但幅度不會很大。

Then you have got to do your own work on that one to find out where you think we are going to be.

然後你必須在那個上做你自己的工作，以找出你認為我們會在哪裡。

We have helped you with the operating margin by telling you a pretty tight range or R&D and SG&A expenditure by quarter.

我們通過按季度告訴您一個非常小的範圍或研發和 SG&A 支出來幫助您提高營業利潤率。

And it is in the press release.

它在新聞稿中。

So if you cannot get it, please call our investor relations guys.

因此，如果您無法獲得它，請致電我們的投資者關係人員。

And from that you can construct a good model, I think, which will get you pretty close to the answer without me committing every number that I think I know.

我認為，您可以從中構建一個好的模型，這將使您非常接近答案，而無需我提交我認為我知道的每一個數字。

Okay?

好的？

Thanks.

謝謝。

A pleasure.

榮幸。

The next question comes from Mr. Mike O'Brien.

下一個問題來自 Mike O'Brien 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, Mike O'Brien, SoundView Technology.

是的，SoundView Technology 的 Mike O'Brien。

Just a question on backlog.

只是關於積壓的問題。

Do you have any significant portion of the backlog that is greater than a year in delivery?

您是否有任何重要部分的交貨時間超過一年？

And, if not, when do you think you may start to see some backlog you would be putting on the books of a greater than a year out delivery?

而且，如果沒有，您認為您什麼時候可能會開始看到一些積壓的訂單，您將把這些訂單放在一年多的交貨期？

The 99% answer is no.

99% 的答案是否定的。

There is maybe one or two, or maybe three, beyond a year but essentially they are within twelve months. 80% is within six months as we have told you.

可能有一個或兩個，或者三個，超過一年，但基本上是在十二個月內。正如我們告訴您的那樣，80% 是在六個月內。

The other 20% or 19% of those 20% probably is in the next six months.

這 20% 中的另外 20% 或 19% 可能在未來六個月內。

So I do not think there is a big tail-off in aging there.

所以我不認為那裡的老齡化有很大的下降。

And my colleagues are looking and I think they are saying there is nothing at all.

我的同事們正在尋找，我認為他們說什麼都沒有。

So not even one, so therefore it is less than 12 in backlog...

所以甚至沒有一個，因此積壓的數量少於 12...

So when do we start to see backlogs beyond twelve months, I don’t know.

所以我們什麼時候開始看到超過十二個月的積壓，我不知道。

My first requirement, if I can use that word, is to see a backlog that is between 12 and 6 months.

如果我可以使用這個詞，我的第一個要求是查看 12 到 6 個月的積壓工作。

I’d be quite content with that.

我會很滿意的。

I think orders beyond 12 months out, given the cycle times of our industry on volatility, are probably irrelevant to me.

考慮到我們行業波動的周期時間，我認為超過 12 個月的訂單可能與我無關。

What is important is my own lead time on orders [inaudible].

重要的是我自己的訂單交貨時間 [聽不清]。

I want to see that backlog filling out between 6 and 9 months.

我希望看到積壓工作在 6 到 9 個月之間完成。

So, I don’t want to see orders beyond 12 months, I do want to see more orders between 6 and 9 months.

所以，我不想看到超過 12 個月的訂單，我希望看到更多 6 到 9 個月的訂單。

But typically, you do see, do you think the cycle will be different that you won’t see those 12 month orders, it seems like typically there’s a panic?

但是通常情況下，您確實看到了，您認為周期會有所不同，您不會看到那 12 個月的訂單，似乎通常會出現恐慌嗎？

In the past, we’ve never actually told you of orders beyond 12 months, I believe, because we treat it with a degree of skepticism.

我相信，在過去，我們從未真正告訴過您超過 12 個月的訂單，因為我們對此持懷疑態度。

So you’ve only ever seen from us a 12 month backlog, even if an order is 18 months out, we’ve not actually, usually disclosed those to you because we think they are misleading to us and therefore, to you.

因此，您只從我們那裡看到過 12 個月的積壓訂單，即使訂單已經過了 18 個月，我們實際上通常不會向您披露這些，因為我們認為它們誤導了我們，因此也誤導了您。

I think we’re going to see orders’ lead times stretching out and that 6-9 months is my interest point.

我認為我們將看到訂單的交貨時間延長，而 6-9 個月是我的興趣點。

Beyond 12 months, I will take them gratefully but I will not talk about them too much because I know that in the next 12 months things can change dramatically.

超過 12 個月，我會感激地接受它們，但我不會過多地談論它們，因為我知道在接下來的 12 個月內，情況可能會發生巨大變化。

They could be cancelled or pushed out.

他們可能會被取消或推出。

And I think the rest of your question is there a panic?

我認為你剩下的問題是恐慌嗎？

Well, there is no panic because I think customers are still, 80% of the backlog is for the next six months.

好吧，沒有恐慌，因為我認為客戶仍然存在，80% 的積壓訂單是未來六個月的。

I think there is still caution and that shows.

我認為仍然需要謹慎，這表明了這一點。

So there is no panic inside I would say.

所以我會說內心沒有恐慌。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

The next question comes from Mr. Matthew Gale.

下一個問題來自 Matthew Gale 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hello, Goldman Sachs.

你好，高盛。

A question for Peter on the SG&A line.

在 SG&A 線上向 Peter 提出的問題。

I think you mentioned earlier today in the press conference that the variance there in your guidance has a lot to do with the litigation expenses.

我想你今天早些時候在新聞發布會上提到，你的指導意見的差異與訴訟費用有很大關係。

And I was wondering if you could just give us an update on the various suits that are going on in the different geographies as far as timing?

我想知道您是否可以就時間方面向我們提供有關不同地區正在進行的各種訴訟的最新信息？

What really is the key trigger for the uptake in expenses?

支出增加的真正關鍵因素是什麼？

Is it actually when you are seeing significant hearings?

當你看到重要的聽證會時，真的是這樣嗎？

Or is there any way you can predict which quarters we are going to see a big uptake in the SG&A line?

或者有什麼方法可以預測我們將在哪些季度看到 SG&A 線的大幅增長？

Yes, I think it is very much driven by the hearings.

是的，我認為這很大程度上是由聽證會推動的。

So the intensity of the hearings.

所以聽證會的強度。

And that is the result of the legal process, that is driving cost.

這就是法律程序的結果，即驅動成本。

What we see there, the major case we have in California.

我們在那裡看到的，是我們在加利福尼亞的主要案例。

We have an appeal case on the IPC which serves in the second part of this year.

我們有一個關於 IPC 的上訴案件，將於今年下半年開始審理。

We have cases in Asia, in Japan.

我們在亞洲和日本都有病例。

We have in Korea a case.

我們在韓國有一個案例。

Those are cases that are stretching out over a very long period of time.

這些是在很長一段時間內延伸的案例。

And in California we are not proceeding very fast either.

在加利福尼亞，我們的進展也不是很快。

We have experienced some delays and it is difficult because those delays we did not expect.

我們經歷了一些延誤，這很困難，因為這些延誤是我們沒有預料到的。

So it is difficult to actually say we will hit a peak in the third quarter.

所以很難說我們會在第三季度達到頂峰。

It might just as well be the fourth, given the fact that the courts might decide to take part of the hearing in Q4 instead of in Q3.

考慮到法院可能決定在第四季度而不是第三季度參加聽證會，這也可能是第四次。

And that happens all of the time.

這一直在發生。

So it is bit difficult to say we will hit a peak there and then.

所以很難說我們會在那時達到頂峰。

I do not expect that the only fixed date which is in the third quarter, which is the appeal to the IPC court ruling, that that will lead to a big increase in cost.

我不認為唯一的固定日期是第三季度，即對 IPC 法院裁決的上訴，這會導致成本大幅增加。

Because that is, in terms of time spent by the lawyers, not a very significant part of the case.

因為也就是說，就律師花費的時間而言，並不是案件中非常重要的部分。

The big money spent will be on the California case.

花費的大筆資金將用於加利福尼亞案。

And that is a case that basically changes a lot in terms of timing.

這是一個在時間方面基本上發生了很大變化的案例。

So it is difficult to say.

所以很難說。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Just two quick follow-ups.

只需兩個快速跟進。

So if you had a revenue breakout in Q3, you gave us between 200mm and 300m.

因此，如果您在第三季度有收入突破，您給了我們 200 毫米到 3 億之間的距離。

I was wondering if you could provide that again?

我想知道你能不能再提供一次？

And then, finally, a clarification.

然後，最後，澄清一下。

Earlier today you were saying you were forecasting that the backlog would be up sequentially in Q1.

今天早些時候，您說您預測第一季度的積壓訂單將連續增加。

And then I thought I heard in the call Doug say that now bookings would actually be up.

然後我想我在電話中聽到道格說現在預訂量實際上會增加。

Because I know backlog can be up even with bookings down in Q1.

因為我知道即使第一季度的預訂量下降，積壓也會增加。

So could you clarify that?

那你能澄清一下嗎？

Okay, let me take the second one because I guess you quoted me on that one.

好的，讓我拿第二個，因為我猜你在那個上引用了我的話。

Let me replay it again so we can clearly understand.

讓我再重播一遍，以便我們清楚地了解。

So, we have a backlog right now of 124 systems valued at just under €1bn.

因此，我們現在積壓了 124 個系統，價值略低於 10 億歐元。

What I was trying to say, obviously failed to communicate to you, I am sorry for that, when we meet on this telephone call in three months time, I am kind of predicting, and it is out on a limb a bit and I appreciate that but I have got good reasons, that thebacklog at that point, as we have moved on a quarter, will be higher than 124 systems and greater value than €1bn, by a small amount.

我想說的話，顯然沒能和你溝通，我很抱歉，當我們在三個月後通過這個電話見面時，我有點預測，它有點懸而未決，我很感激但我有充分的理由，那時的積壓訂單將超過 124 個系統，價值將超過 10 億歐元，只是少量。

Okay?

好的？

That is what I was saying.

這就是我所說的。

Therefore we have to, in the quarter, book more than we are going to build to achieve that mathematical objective.

因此，為了實現該數學目標，我們必須在本季度預訂比我們將要建造的更多的書。

Understand?

理解？

Okay, but you are not forecasting your bookings to be up sequentially?

好的，但您沒有預測您的預訂量會按順序增加嗎？

No, no, no.

不不不。

In fact, looking at the rate we booked in Q4, I would absolutely say that they will not be up sequentially.

事實上，看看我們在第四季度預訂的價格，我絕對會說它們不會連續上漲。

No way, no.

沒辦法，不行。

If I gave the impression, then I was dreadfully wrong.

如果我給人留下印象，那我就大錯特錯了。

No. bookings will not be up, backlog will be up.

不，預訂不會增加，積壓會增加。

Okay, and then the shipment breakdown 200/300?

好的，然後裝運細分 200/300？

For which period?

哪個時期？

For Q4.

對於第四季度。

We can tell you for the half year.

我們可以告訴你半年。

It is on our Web page for the half year, right?

它在我們的網頁上半年了，對吧？

The billings for the second half was 39 for the half year 200mm and 70 300mm.

下半年的賬單是 39 半年 200 毫米和 70 300 毫米。

Sorry, 39 200mm, 31 300mm.

抱歉，39 200 毫米，31 300 毫米。

Can we come back to you if we find it.

如果我們找到它，我們可以回來找你嗎？

Move on or we will waste time otherwise.

繼續前進，否則我們將浪費時間。

Sure, thank you.

當然，謝謝。

If we get it we will come back to you, okay?

如果我們得到它，我們會回來找你的，好嗎？

[Operator instructions] The next question comes from Mr. Peter Testa.

[操作員說明] 下一個問題來自 Peter Testa 先生。

It is Peter Testa from One Investments.

是 One Investments 的 Peter Testa。

I was wondering if you could help explain what is going on in supplier lead times?

我想知道您是否可以幫助解釋供應商交貨時間的情況？

And especially the degree to which it is has been affected by quite a different mix than maybe had been expected by the suppliers?

尤其是它受到與供應商預期的完全不同的組合的影響程度？

And whether this has been an issue at all as to why inside 300mm backlog there is a preponderance of 248 rather than a big shift towards 193?

以及為什麼在 300 毫米積壓內有 248 的優勢而不是向 193 的大轉變，這是否完全是一個問題？

No, to answer the second part of your question first.

不，首先回答您問題的第二部分。

The mix of the backlog, both wafer size and node, is a natural mix as required by customers.

積壓的混合，包括晶圓尺寸和節點，是客戶要求的自然混合。

Do not forget that the sweet spot for production of integrated circuits these days is still 180nm and that is 248.

不要忘記，如今生產集成電路的最佳點仍然是 180nm，也就是 248。

And the node going into volume production right now is 130nm and that is still accomplished mostly by 248.

目前進入量產的節點是 130nm，而且大部分仍由 248 完成。

So that is why it is 248 rich.

所以這就是為什麼它是248富有。

It is a natural backlog, not a function of what we can supply and what we cannot supply, if you understand that.

這是一個自然的積壓，不是我們能提供什麼和不能提供什麼的函數，如果你理解的話。

The impact on our suppliers.

對我們供應商的影響。

Well, in a way, they have had three easy years, although not pleasant years.

嗯，在某種程度上，他們度過了輕鬆的三年，雖然並不愉快。

Clearly we are now upping the ante with them.

顯然，我們現在正在與他們加大賭注。

We are communicating with them strongly and making sure that they are responding to our needs.

我們正在與他們進行強有力的溝通，並確保他們對我們的需求做出回應。

I do not think at this point in time that they are in any way, shape or form, a limitation.

在這個時間點上，我不認為它們在任何方面、形狀或形式上都是一種限制。

What we have to do is continue working with them to improve their cycle times.

我們要做的是繼續與他們合作，以改善他們的周期時間。

And we have got active programs with all those suppliers to do that.

我們與所有這些供應商都有積極的計劃來做到這一點。

We have internally, by the way, also increased our internal capacity for module development.

順便說一句，我們在內部也增加了模塊開發的內部能力。

We had some modules, major modules, the most complex ones we have, sole sourced from external suppliers.

我們有一些模塊，主要模塊，我們擁有的最複雜的模塊，完全來自外部供應商。

We are not performing, quite frankly, on price or lead time or even quality.

坦率地說，我們在價格、交貨時間甚至質量方面表現不佳。

And we converted part of our Wilton assets into a module manufacturing capability which has done three things in parallel.

我們將威爾頓的部分資產轉化為模塊製造能力，該能力同時完成了三件事。

Improved the quality, reduced the costs to us, and improved the cycle time to us.

提高了質量，降低了我們的成本，並改善了我們的周期時間。

So we are a little less dependent on some of the people who were difficult to manage previously.

因此，我們對一些以前難以管理的人的依賴程度有所降低。

And we have also swapped some suppliers.

我們還交換了一些供應商。

So we have taken action on our supply base to try and make it more flexible.

因此，我們對我們的供應基地採取了行動，試圖使其更加靈活。

And less dependent on key suppliers who were sole sourced who did not have any leverage on them to improve their performance.

並且更少依賴於沒有任何影響力來提高績效的單一來源的主要供應商。

Okay, so effectively your suppliers are not causing you any lead time questions at this point?

好的，您的供應商現在沒有給您帶來任何交貨時間問題嗎？

No, the lead time questions are actually from customers.

不，交貨時間問題實際上來自客戶。

Let us be quite candid here.

讓我們在這裡坦誠相待。

I really go on record defending my suppliers but they do have real lead times.

我真的一直在為我的供應商辯護，但他們確實有真正的交貨時間。

The issue here is that customers have been used to giving orders with low lead times because we had high inventories, and we had lots of capacity.

這裡的問題是，客戶已經習慣於以低交貨時間下訂單，因為我們有高庫存，而且我們有很多產能。

That is no longer the case.

這已不再是這種情況。

So the issue is not my suppliers.

所以問題不在於我的供應商。

The issue is my customers who are going through the process of having to pick up a bit more courage and give longer lead times orders.

問題是我的客戶正在經歷不得不鼓起更多勇氣並提供更長交貨時間的訂單的過程。

Because they are now recognizing I cannot supply a six month lead time product inside six months.

因為他們現在認識到我無法在六個月內提供六個月的交貨期產品。

Okay, and as a follow-up.

好的，作為後續行動。

What do you think your supplier lead times are in the different product classes?

您認為不同產品類別的供應商交貨時間是多少？

Between six and 12 months actually.

實際上在 6 到 12 個月之間。

Total lead time from receipt of order to shipment of product, including our relatively modest assembly time internally.

從收到訂單到發貨的總交貨時間，包括我們相對適中的內部組裝時間。

Between six and 12 months, depending on the product type and mix and so on;Lens type, platform, etc.

6 到 12 個月之間，取決於產品類型和組合等；鏡頭類型、平台等。

Right, okay, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝。

A pleasure.

榮幸。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question comes from Mr. Pascal Peton.

下一個問題來自 Pascal Peton 先生。

Please state your company followed by your question.

請說明您的公司，然後是您的問題。

KPC (kvc??)Financial Products.

KPC (kvc??) 金融產品。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I wonder whether you could tell me what the company short-term debt, if there is any short-term debt?

不知你能不能告訴我公司有什麼短期債務，是否有短期債務？

The debt outstanding are two convertibles.

未償債務為兩份可轉換債券。

One due in 2006 and one in 2010.

一份在 2006 年到期，一份在 2010 年到期。

And the 2006 is $575m and the 2010 is €380m.

2006 年為 5.75 億美元，2010 年為 3.8 億歐元。

Well you owe me for last week expenses, Peter, as well but we will not count that.

好吧，彼得，你也欠我上週的費用，但我們不會計算在內。

But when I talk about debt I do not talk about short-term liabilities like accounts payable and accruals.

但當我談論債務時，我不會談論應付賬款和應計項目等短期負債。

I talk about debt.

我談論債務。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

How about the next question?

下一個問題呢？

The next question comes from Mr. Dan Duckery.

下一個問題來自 Dan Duckery 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Similar questions that I may push the limit on too many, so stop me if I do.

類似的問題，我可能會限制太多，所以如果我這樣做，請阻止我。

If we look at sort of the changes.

如果我們看一下這些變化。

Stop.

停止。

If we look at the changes since last year, the credit situation has improved a lot.

如果我們看看去年以來的變化，信貸情況已經改善了很多。

If you hit some of what you forecast to the equity analysts, do you see one burning cash in terms of working capital?

如果你達到了你對股票分析師的一些預測，你是否看到一個在營運資金方面燒錢？

Even with your DSO target in 04?

即使你的 DSO 目標在 04 年？

What do we see, burning cash?

我們看到了什麼，燒錢？

The answer is no.

答案是不。

Even with the working capital build at the second half of 04 and 05?

即使在 04 和 05 下半年建立營運資金？

We hit this recovery?

我們達到了這個複蘇？

Correct.

正確的。

The working capital build, like we also said in the press conference.

就像我們在新聞發布會上所說的那樣，營運資金的建立。

We still intend to increase our inventory terms which we also did, by the way, in 2003.

我們仍然打算增加我們的庫存條款，順便說一句，我們在 2003 年也這樣做了。

We will continue with that in 2004.

我們將在 2004 年繼續這樣做。

When you look at the profit forecast, as you mentioned the analysts, you have to remember that we do have a quite significant deferred tax asset on the balance sheet which is a source of cash.

當您查看利潤預測時，正如您提到的分析師，您必須記住，我們在資產負債表上確實有相當重要的遞延稅資產，這是現金的來源。

It basically means that the tax that we use for accounting purposes is not actually paid.

這基本上意味著我們用於會計目的的稅款並未實際支付。

And together with the depreciation for next year which we estimate at roughly €130m and about €75m to €80m in CAPEX expense, we will add a lot of cash.

再加上我們估計約為 1.3 億歐元的明年折舊和大約 7500 萬至 8000 萬歐元的資本支出費用，我們將增加大量現金。

But we will also use some cash in working capital.

但我們也會使用一些現金作為營運資金。

But with the improved inventory terms, we think the overall balance will be a positive.

但隨著庫存條款的改善，我們認為整體平衡將是積極的。

So we will generate cash this year.

所以我們今年會產生現金。

Okay, you answered my second question on CAPEX.

好的，你回答了我關於 CAPEX 的第二個問題。

Last one.

最後一個。

If we look at the convertible, the five and three quarters of 06, the $575m.

如果我們看一下敞篷車，06 年的五季度和三季度，價值 5.75 億美元。

That is provisionally callable in October of this year.

可以在今年 10 月臨時調用。

Should we assume that you would wait until that was callable and forcing conversion into stock?

我們是否應該假設您會等到可以贖回並強制轉換為股票？

Or would you envision calling that even if there was a probability that you might actually pay cash to call it?

或者，即使您有可能實際支付現金來調用它，您是否會設想調用它？

That is too early to say.

現在說還為時過早。

When we look at the second quarter of this year, 20% of the backlog has to do with the second half of the year.

回顧今年第二季度，20% 的積壓訂單與下半年有關。

We all have great expectations of the year.

我們都對這一年寄予厚望。

Let us see how the year develops.

讓我們看看這一年是如何發展的。

We will take it from there.

我們將從那裡拿走它。

Okay.

好的。

I mean could you run the company with only €500m in cash?

我的意思是你能用 5 億歐元現金經營這家公司嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes but we will not have to.

是的，但我們不必這樣做。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

And, Doug, I was sort of rubbing it in on your retirement statement there.

而且，道格，我在你那裡的退休聲明中有點摩擦它。

Thank you both.

謝謝你們倆。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Bye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji.

下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題先生。

Mr. Orji, please state your question sir.

Orji 先生，請提出您的問題，先生。

I am sorry sir.

我很抱歉先生。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Mike O'Brien.

我們有一個來自 Mike O'Brien 先生的後續問題。

Please go ahead sir.

請先生繼續。

Yes, two quick questions.

是的，兩個簡單的問題。

I do not think in answering John Pitzer's question you talked about the ASP increasefor the immersion tool.

我不認為在回答 John Pitzer 的問題時，您談到了沉浸式工具的 ASP 增加。

If you can give us an update on that?

如果你能告訴我們最新情況？

And then, can you give us an idea of when you think, or if you think, there will be a unit crossover of more 193nm tools shipped than 248nm in the cycle?

然後，您能否告訴我們您的想法，或者如果您認為，在周期內出貨的 193nm 工具將比 248nm 更多的單位交叉？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think in the second half of this cycle we will see 193 picking up.

我認為在這個週期的後半段，我們將看到 193 人回升。

As we explained earlier, the sweet part right now is 839nm and that is a 248.

正如我們之前所解釋的，現在最好的部分是 839nm，也就是 248。

And Stuart is just saying to me it all depends on the DRAM guys ,how they perform.

Stuart 只是對我說，這完全取決於 DRAM 人員，他們的表現如何。

I anticipate 192 will start to pick up part way through this cycle and start to show a clean pair of heels, so to speak, in the second half of the cycle.

我預計 192 將在這個週期的中途開始回升，並開始展示一雙乾淨的高跟鞋，可以這麼說，在周期的後半段。

Your first part of the question was regarding ASPs for immersion tools.

您問題的第一部分是關於沉浸式工具的 ASP。

Yes, they are tools that have distinct advantages when they hit production.

是的，它們是在投入生產時具有明顯優勢的工具。

Right now they are development tools and we are selling them for prices in excess of €20m.

現在它們是開發工具，我們以超過 2000 萬歐元的價格出售它們。

Clearly, I am not going to give away precisely what to whom there but that is, if you like, if I can use the pun, a watershed price for immersion.

顯然，我不會確切地告訴誰在那裡，但如果你願意，如果我可以使用雙關語，那就是沉浸式的分水嶺價格。

Mike O’Brien: Good enough, thank you.

Mike O'Brien：很好，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji.

下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Just a question on service revenues.

只是關於服務收入的問題。

Clearly we have seen a bit of a jump in service revenues in the quarter.

顯然，我們看到本季度服務收入略有增長。

Can you give us an idea of how they will trend through the rest of the year?

你能告訴我們他們在今年剩餘時間裡的趨勢嗎？

Yes, the service revenue for the quarter, just to fresh up, is roughly €50m which is contract related.

是的，本季度的服務收入，剛剛更新，大約是 5000 萬歐元，這與合同相關。

So it is basically our spend and some material in there.

所以這基本上是我們的花費和一些材料。

But the swing factor in the quarter is basically the sale of field options.

但本季度的波動因素基本上是場外期權的出售。

And field options have the tendency to go up when there is an upturn because we do sell productivity improvement packages then.

當出現好轉時，現場選項有上升的趨勢，因為那時我們確實銷售生產力改進包。

They are combinations of software and hardware-related options.

它們是軟件和硬件相關選項的組合。

So for the fourth quarter, we had roughly €50m in service sales and about €25m in option sales.

因此，在第四季度，我們的服務銷售額約為 5000 萬歐元，期權銷售額約為 2500 萬歐元。

The €50m you can extrapolate, with a little increase of about between 5-10% for 2004.

你可以推斷出 5000 萬歐元，2004 年略有增加，大約在 5-10% 之間。

With respect to the option sales, that is relatively bumpy.

就期權銷售而言，這是相對顛簸的。

But I would say that, if you take the fourth quarter sales, I think it is safe to extrapolate that for the first two quarters.

但我想說的是，如果你計算第四季度的銷售額，我認為可以安全地推斷前兩個季度的銷售額。

And beyond that is not quite certain.

除此之外還不太確定。

That really depends on where customers are.

這真的取決於客戶在哪裡。

Whether they do need the productivity improvements.

他們是否確實需要提高生產力。

But for the first two quarters that seems to be a safe bet that it is going to be in that area.

但對於前兩個季度，這似乎是一個安全的賭注，它將在那個領域。

Okay.

好的。

Can you just tell us what the gross margin was on services now?

你能告訴我們現在服務的毛利率是多少嗎？

It was in the low 20s and will go in 2004 to the mid 20s.

它處於 20 年代低點，並將在 2004 年到 20 年代中期。

Okay.

好的。

So you mean that the field options tend to drive the gross margins high?

所以你的意思是現場期權往往會推高毛利率？

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Peter Testa.

我們有一個來自 Peter Testa 先生的後續問題。

Please go ahead sir.

請先生繼續。

Hi, it is one follow-up and an addition to my previous question.

嗨，這是我之前的問題的一個後續和補充。

Given the supply lead times, to what extent can orders that you are taking now be delivered in the first half?

考慮到供應提前期，您現在接受的訂單可以在多大程度上在上半年交付？

And then the second question was just on foreign exchange.

然後第二個問題是關於外彙的。

I mean obviously you price in euros.

我的意思是顯然你以歐元定價。

But with the dollar moving the way it is, customer [inaudible] set in dollars.

但隨著美元的走勢，客戶 [聽不清] 以美元計價。

To what extent do you think this is taking away your potential for pricing power later on or delaying your potential pricing in the cycle?

您認為這在多大程度上剝奪了您以後的定價權或延遲了您在周期中的潛在定價？

And there is much pricing power assumed in your comments and gross margin during the year?

您的評論和一年中的毛利率假設有很大的定價權嗎？

So on the first part and Peter will answer the bit on the foreign exchange.

所以在第一部分，彼得將回答關於外彙的問題。

The question was do we have room to put in more product into the first half and deliver in the first half for orders we have not yet taken.

問題是我們是否有空間在上半年投入更多產品並在上半年交付我們尚未接受的訂單。

The answer is limited now.

現在的答案是有限的。

We are quite candid that with five months to go to end this half, there is limited time to take orders and turn around into a finished product in a five month period.

我們很坦率地說，距離這半年結束還有五個月的時間，在五個月的時間內接受訂單並變成成品的時間是有限的。

Given our lead time, given our supplier lead time.

鑑於我們的交貨時間，鑑於我們的供應商交貨時間。

Many customers now begin to realize and it is current to see orders coming in for six or seven month lead times.

許多客戶現在開始意識到，目前可以看到訂單在 6 或 7 個月的交貨時間內收到。

We can turn a few, a handful here and there, but depends on the mix obviously.

我們可以在這里和那裡轉幾個，但顯然取決於組合。

But, in essence, the answer to the question, and I would say this to all customers listening, is that we are becoming sold out in the first half of the year.

但是，從本質上講，這個問題的答案，我想對所有傾聽的客戶說，是我們在今年上半年已經售罄。

And it is time that we closed the first half and focused on the third, fourth quarter.

現在是我們結束上半場並專注於第三、第四季度的時候了。

With respect to the dollar euro exchange rate.

相對於美元歐元匯率。

I think you are right.

我想你是對的。

In the minds of customers, and especially that run a dollar related income statement, it is a problem.

在客戶的心目中，尤其是那些運行與美元相關的損益表的客戶，這是一個問題。

Because the [inaudible] dollar are getting more expensive.

因為[聽不清] 美元變得越來越貴。

But what we have seen over the last 60 to 90 days is that at least the yen has moved to the same direction as the euro.

但我們在過去 60 到 90 天看到的是，至少日元已經朝著與歐元相同的方向移動。

Ad that is present to all customers.

向所有客戶展示的廣告。

We have to buy in yen or in euro the same, no problem.

我們必須用日元或歐元購買，沒問題。

So it is an issue that our sales people have to deal with.

所以這是我們的銷售人員必須處理的問題。

But, in the end, if you have compare our pricing to all our competitors, not the dollar euro but the euro yen is really of no relevance.

但是，最後，如果您將我們的定價與我們所有的競爭對手進行比較，不是美元歐元而是歐元日元真的毫無意義。

I understand that.

我明白那個。

I was just more thinking that you have made comments earlier today suggesting that, as lead times stretch out, things tighten up.

我只是更多地認為你今天早些時候發表的評論表明，隨著交貨時間的延長，事情會變得更加緊張。

That you would be able to maybe start to reverse some of the pricing moves that were taken during the down cycle.

您可能會開始扭轉在下行週期中採取的一些定價舉措。

And I was wondering the extent to which the dollar exchange rate versus all currencies has tended to take that possibility away?

我想知道美元兌所有貨幣的匯率在多大程度上傾向於消除這種可能性？

Or stretch that possibility out maybe a few quarters?

或者將這種可能性延長幾個季度？

I understand it but we price in euros.

我理解，但我們以歐元定價。

I know you do.

我知道你會的。

So, I mean, the euro price is the euro price, and the yen price is the yen price.

所以，我的意思是，歐元價格就是歐元價格，日元價格就是日元價格。

And that is what is being translated effectively by our customers when they make a comparison between our tools and those of the competition.

這就是我們的客戶在將我們的工具與競爭對手的工具進行比較時有效翻譯的內容。

Sure, but do you think you are going to be increasing your price in euros as the same time as they are already having to deal with the exchange rate within the CAPEX budget?

當然可以，但是你認為你會在提高歐元價格的同時提高他們已經不得不在資本支出預算範圍內處理匯率的問題嗎？

I think it is also a matter of how badly do they need the tool.

我認為這也是他們需要該工具的程度的問題。

And many of those customers have quite extensive CAPEX plans which they have hedged.

許多這些客戶都有相當廣泛的資本支出計劃，他們已經對沖了這些計劃。

So we are getting into a situation where we are discussing this with customers.

因此，我們正在與客戶討論這個問題。

But we say, hey, we do not control the FX movements.

但是我們說，嘿，我們不控制 FX 運動。

This is the price.

這是價格。

And we are introducing new versions and new gizmos of our tools, so we are able to at least increase our average selling price in euros.

我們正在推出我們工具的新版本和新小玩意，因此我們至少能夠提高以歐元計算的平均售價。

We are seeing that and we are still able to do that.

我們看到了這一點，我們仍然能夠做到這一點。

So, it is clearly a mental block that our customers have because of the exchange rage, clearly.

因此，很明顯，由於交換狂怒，我們的客戶有一個心理障礙。

But, on the other hand, there is also not a lot that they can do about it.

但是，另一方面，他們也無能為力。

Or, for that matter, that we as a company can actually do about it.

或者，就此而言，我們作為一家公司實際上可以做到這一點。

So it is what it is and some of the orders that we are getting in now, we do not see a negative effect.

所以它就是這樣，我們現在收到的一些訂單，我們沒有看到負面影響。

We are able to increase on prices here.

我們可以在這裡提高價格。

Okay, and the second part of the question.

好的，問題的第二部分。

Are you expecting, say, like for like product price improvements in euros during the year within your gross margin assumptions?

例如，您是否期望在您的毛利率假設範圍內，以歐元計算的同類產品價格會有所改善？

Well, of course, gross margins assumptions are based basically on three pillars.

好吧，當然，毛利率假設基本上基於三個支柱。

That is, one, the fact that value of ownership of our tools and the improvements therein will drive the ASPs up.

也就是說，第一，我們工具的所有權價值及其改進將推動 ASP 上升。

That is one.

那是一個。

Number two is the cost of goods reduction program, on especially the TWINSCAN program, is significant, and we have reached all targets in 2003.

第二是商品成本降低計劃，尤其是 TWINSCAN 計劃，意義重大，我們在 2003 年已達到所有目標。

We will reach all targets in 2004.

我們將在 2004 年實現所有目標。

And number three is the volume.

第三是音量。

So, volume will also have an effect on the gross margin because we will have a better load.

因此，數量也會對毛利率產生影響，因為我們會有更好的負載。

So, it is not only the gross margin.

因此，這不僅僅是毛利率。

It does not only hinge on the ASP improvement but all the pillars are based on it.

它不僅取決於 ASP 的改進，而且所有支柱都基於它。

So, if I can summarize.

所以，如果我能總結一下。

Basically, supply and demand is going to work on time regardless of FX?

基本上，無論外匯如何，供需都會按時工作？

But you are not pinning gross margin comments upon that?

但你沒有對此發表毛利率評論嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji.

下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。

Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題先生。

Uche from JP Morgan.

來自摩根大通的 Uche。

Just a follow-up question on the margin discussion.

只是關於邊際討論的後續問題。

Can you characterize for me how the margins work between refabs and new tools?

您能否為我描述一下 refabs 和新工具之間的利潤率如何運作？

I was under the impression that refabs have very high margins.

我的印像是 refabs 的利潤率非常高。

Sorry, I missed that Uche.

對不起，我錯過了那個Uche。

Can you just characterize for me how the margins of refurbished tools work?

您能否為我描述一下翻新工具的利潤是如何工作的？

I have always been under the impression that refurbished tools tend to have very high margins.

我一直認為翻新工具的利潤率往往很高。

But you were talking about having scanners as well as refabs now.

但是您現在談論的是擁有掃描儀和翻新設備。

Are the margins on those type of tools fairly high?

這類工具的利潤是否相當高？

Well, they sometimes are but they sometimes are not.

嗯，他們有時是，但有時不是。

I mean they really are all over the place.

我的意思是他們真的到處都是。

It depends on the moulding time that we can get our hands on the tool.

這取決於我們可以使用工具的成型時間。

The eagerness with which a customer wants to get rid of the tool and that changes.

客戶想要擺脫該工具的渴望並且這種渴望發生了變化。

That changes per customer, per week of the month.

每個客戶每月每週都會發生變化。

So, it changes per product type.

因此，它會根據產品類型而變化。

So it is basically all over the place.

所以基本上到處都是。

Okay.

好的。

Very difficult to forecast and I sympathize with you with your models on that one.

很難預測，我對你的模型表示同情。

But on average they tend to trend towards the normal product margins.

但平均而言，它們往往趨向於正常的產品利潤率。

But, as Peter said, we can get some real excursions around that average.

但是，正如彼得所說，我們可以在該平均值附近獲得一些真正的遠足。

Okay.

好的。

Now just on the 248 200mm tools.

現在只使用 248 200mm 工具。

Let us just take a typical example of a mature platform.

我們只舉一個成熟平台的典型例子。

What sort of margins do you think in the cycle could be considered peak margin on those type of tools?

您認為周期中什麼樣的利潤率可以被視為此類工具的最高利潤率？

I think we have only got the comment on peak margins for the company.

我認為我們只得到了關於公司最高利潤率的評論。

I do not want to give out any gross margins on any particular product line of a competitive nature.

我不想透露任何具有競爭性質的特定產品線的毛利率。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Yes.

是的。

What we have said is that, given it is a decent peak as opposed to a small molehill, which will probably occur in 2005 to the industry, if the forecasts currently are correct.

我們所說的是，鑑於目前的預測是正確的，鑑於它是一個不錯的高峰，而不是一個小山丘，如果目前的預測是正確的，這可能會在 2005 年對該行業發生。

We expect to get gross margins back towards levels that we had in the previous peak in 2000.

我們預計毛利率將回到 2000 年的峰值水平。

From memory, they were just over 40%.

從記憶中，他們剛剛超過40%。

So of that order for the next peak, providing it is a decent sized peak.

所以對於下一個峰值的順序，只要它是一個大小合適的峰值。

Right.

正確的。

The question now is that, given the fact that you have spent quite a lot of effort for working the operations.

現在的問題是，考慮到您已經花費了相當多的精力來進行操作。

Do you have any chance that peak margins this time, taking in all the restructuring, should be higher than it was in the last peak?

你有沒有可能這次的峰值利潤率，包括所有的重組，應該比上一個峰值更高？

No reason to really think that they can be higher than the last peak actually.

沒有理由真正認為它們實際上可以高於最後一個峰值。

It is a kind of interesting question.

這是一個有趣的問題。

We have not rehearsed this one.

我們還沒有排練過這個。

No reason to believe they would be higher than the last one.

沒有理由相信它們會比上一個更高。

About the same is all we can say.

我們只能說差不多。

I do not think that the peak this time is going to be kind of as breathtaking as the peak last time.

我不認為這次的高峰會像上次的高峰一樣令人嘆為觀止。

So everything was in our favor last time around and therefore I do no think we are going to exceed that on average.

所以上次一切都對我們有利，因此我認為我們不會超過平均水平。

But let us see.

但是讓我們看看。

Another year to go yet.

還有一年。

Who knows?

誰知道？

Yes, but it is a little early to say that.

是的，但現在說這個還為時過早。

Let us see how the second half of the year develops.

讓我們看看下半年如何發展。

How the order intake goes.

訂單接收情況如何。

How the [inaudible] prices are basically holding or going up.

[聽不清] 價格如何基本保持或上漲。

See how the cost of goods reduction program is going.

了解降低商品成本計劃的進展情況。

I think these things are very important I think what we have said is we see no reason why they could not be at that level.

我認為這些事情非常重要，我認為我們所說的是我們沒有理由認為他們不能達到那個水平。

I think we need to see some proof in some other areas to be certain to say we think we can exceed it.

我認為我們需要在其他一些領域看到一些證據才能確定我們認為我們可以超越它。

Okay, and just one last question on the same topic.

好的，關於同一主題的最後一個問題。

At the operating level, given that you have taken a lot of cost out, and you are still taking cost out.

在運營層面，考慮到你已經付出了很多成本，而且你仍然在付出成本。

Assuming you maintain the same type of margins, will you be assuming that the operating margins will be higher than the last peak?

假設您保持相同類型的利潤率，您會假設營業利潤率將高於上一個峰值嗎？

Yes, I think that could be a fair assumption.

是的，我認為這可能是一個公平的假設。

But like I said, it is too early.

但就像我說的，現在還為時過早。

We need to see some more data points in terms of orders, and ASPs, and cost of goods reductions, volumes, that will build our confidence to be able to say that.

我們需要看到更多關於訂單、平均售價、商品成本降低、數量的數據點，這將建立我們能夠說出這些話的信心。

We have kind of helped you with the answer in what we are giving you.

我們為您提供的答案提供了一些幫助。

It is not our job to do that, I do not think, and we decline that one.

我不認為這樣做不是我們的工作，我們拒絕這樣做。

But we do know now what we expect in gross margin terms.

但我們現在確實知道我們對毛利率的預期。

We have been quite clear with the band of SG&A and R&D.

我們對 SG&A 和 R&D 的樂隊非常清楚。

And therefore I am sure your model is better equipped than me to get down to the operating margin levels.

因此，我相信您的模型比我更能降低運營利潤率水平。

I would like you to probably do that part of the job yourself actually.

我希望你實際上可能自己完成這部分工作。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Peter Testa.

我們有一個來自 Peter Testa 先生的後續問題。

Please go ahead sir.

請先生繼續。

Last one.

最後一個。

Just noticing on China that SMIC is shown up in your projected top 10 spenders.

只是注意到在中國，中芯國際出現在您預計的前 10 名支出者中。

China is now 11% of the backlog.

中國現在是積壓的11%。

Can you give us an idea of what you see?

你能告訴我們你所看到的嗎？

What you are seeing is different?

你看到的不一樣？

What you see SMIC doing?

你看中芯國際在做什麼？

What do you expect China as a proportion of backlog to continue progressing?

您預計中國在積壓訂單中所佔的比例將繼續增長嗎？

Just some comment there please.

請在那裡發表一些評論。

China, anything that is less than kind of 25% has the habit of going up and down.

中國，任何低於25%的東西都有漲跌的習慣。

We get an order and then we ship it off, and it goes up again, it goes down again.

我們收到訂單，然後發貨，然後又漲了，又跌了。

So China is in there.

所以中國在裡面。

It was not in there last time we talked, I believe.

我相信上次我們談話時它不在那兒。

So, please bear in mind that is a snapshot in time and goes up and down quite a bit.

所以，請記住，這是一個及時的快照，並且會上下波動。

But, fundamentally, I believe, and this is a personal opinion on China having been there a few times and so on.

但是，從根本上說，我相信，這是對中國去過幾次的個人看法，等等。

I believe that China will continue to be an ever increasing part of our business lives.

我相信中國將繼續成為我們商業生活中越來越重要的一部分。

They are committed to developing a lot of new factories supplying integrated circuits.

他們致力於開發許多供應集成電路的新工廠。

It is the next logical step for their development as an economic block.

這是它們作為經濟區塊發展的下一個合乎邏輯的步驟。

And we see the holes being built in the ground and the cement being poured with Grace and SMIC, and the other investments of SMIC, and others also.

我們看到在地面上打洞，用格雷斯和中芯國際澆注水泥，以及中芯國際和其他公司的其他投資。

It may go down to 8% next time round, who knows?

下一輪可能會下降到 8%，誰知道呢？

But underlying that fluctuation, there is a positive dynamic in China.

但在這種波動的背後，中國存在著積極的動力。

It never appeared on our slides at all until about a year and a half ago, and now it is never off our slides.

直到大約一年半前，它才出現在我們的幻燈片上，現在它再也沒有出現在我們的幻燈片上。

And it is increasingly getting more and more significant for us.

它對我們來說越來越重要。

And will do so for a long time yet.

並且會在很長一段時間內這樣做。

And China will stay as a bigger proportion than Europe on average over time?

隨著時間的推移，中國的平均比例會比歐洲更大嗎？

I personally believe China will overtake Europe relatively quickly.

我個人認為中國會相對較快地超越歐洲。

Yes, Stuart is just saying, from other things, a lot of the European suppliers are saying their next big investment will be in a low cost region, and often that is China.

是的，Stuart 只是說，從其他方面來看，很多歐洲供應商都表示他們的下一個大投資將在低成本地區，通常是中國。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Jay Deahna Please go ahead sir.

Jay Deahna 先生有一個後續問題請繼續先生。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Doug, what do you think your booking market share is for 300mm in the fourth quarter?

Doug，您認為您在第四季度 300 毫米的預訂市場份額是多少？

Well, that is a tough one, Jay.

嗯，這是一個艱難的，傑伊。

It is difficult to have there.

很難有。

I will try and give you an answer but just to explain to the audience who think I should have these answers just bang like that.

我會試著給你一個答案，但只是為了向那些認為我應該有這些答案的觀眾解釋一下。

There are 300mm investments in Japan which we are not always as close to as we would like because we are new in Japan, and it is a tough road to haul, okay.

在日本有 300 毫米的投資，但我們並不總是像我們希望的那樣接近，因為我們是日本的新手，而且這是一條艱難的道路，好吧。

You recognize that.

你認得。

Outside Japan, we have a dominant, leadership position, dominant is a bit strong probably, in market share, both bookings and billings.

在日本以外，我們擁有主導地位，領導地位，在市場份額（預訂和賬單）方面可能有點強。

If you take Japan into account, and the fact that Japan this year, Jay, as you will probably recognize is spending disproportionately well.

如果你把日本考慮在內，那麼你可能會認識到，今年日本的支出非常好。

Because it has been on holiday for a couple of years and there are some fabs being built there.

因為它已經放假了好幾年，而且那裡正在建造一些晶圓廠。

I suspect that the booking number may come down slightly.

我懷疑預訂數量可能會略有下降。

Is it going to be 50% of world 300mm?

它將是世界 300 毫米的 50% 嗎？

I am kind of struggling here for an answer for you quantitatively.

我在這裡有點掙扎，希望能定量地為您提供答案。

So that is the best I can do actually Jay.

所以這是我能做的最好的傑伊。

To give you some information.

給你一些信息。

Of total bookings about close to 70% was 200mm.

在總預訂量中，約 70% 是 200 毫米。

200?

200？

Yes.

是的。

His question was what is the percentage of the 300mm?

他的問題是300mm的百分比是多少？

Yes, but as you say, you can say what the 300mm are and then we just have to make an assessment of what you think the market was.

是的，但正如你所說，你可以說出 300 毫米是什麼，然後我們只需要評估你認為的市場是什麼。

But we do not have that data readily available here.

但是我們這裡沒有現成的數據。

We are still doing very well, Jay, on 300mm and inside Japan we are trying to do a lot better, obviously.

傑伊，在 300 毫米鏡頭上，我們仍然做得很好，在日本國內，顯然我們正在努力做得更好。

Yes, so if you combine it all, is your cycle expectation somewhere in the 40% range for new systems, for market share?

是的，所以如果你把這一切結合起來，你的周期預期是否在新系統的 40% 範圍內，對於市場份額？

Yes, I feel pretty comfortable with that.

是的，我對此感到很舒服。

I would like to do better.

我想做得更好。

Yes.

是的。

You think better is more likely or less likely?

你認為更好的可能性更大還是可能性更小？

I think better is desirable.

我認為更好是可取的。

How is that?

那個怎麼樣？

Okay.

好的。

And the other thing is that there was a question earlier.

另一件事是之前有一個問題。

I believe the gentlemen from Goldman Sachs was asking it.

我相信高盛的先生們是在問這個問題。

He was trying to get a gauge on the fact that you are saying the backlog will be up in the first quarter, but bookings will probably be down.

他試圖了解您所說的積壓訂單將在第一季度增加，但預訂量可能會下降的事實。

Were you talking in units or dollars?

你說的是單位還是美元？

Because if 200mm was 70% of your bookings in the fourth quarter, and you get a mix shift at 300mm in the first or second quarter.

因為如果 200 毫米是您在第四季度預訂量的 70%，而您在第一季度或第二季度獲得 300 毫米的混合轉變。

It seems to me that your dollar value of bookings could potentially be a different picture than the unit picture?

在我看來，您的預訂美元價值可能與單位圖片不同？

That is correct, Jay.

沒錯，傑。

The question was specifically the first quarter, the previous question, right?

問題具體是第一季度，上一個問題，對吧？

Right.

正確的。

And the gentleman in Goldman Sachs, if they have such people.

還有高盛的紳士，如果他們有這樣的人。

They have nothing to do by the way.

順便說一句，他們無事可做。

That was a joke for those who cannot see my face.

對於那些看不到我臉的人來說，這是一個笑話。

So, it was Q1 and I do not think the booking mix is going to change substantially in Q1.

因此，這是第一季度，我認為第一季度的預訂組合不會發生重大變化。

But also it is true that later year it is going to change to 300mm.

但它也確實會在晚些時候變為 300 毫米。

If it is Q2, or even if it is Q1, it will have an impact, obviously, on the dollar value bookings and ASP as well.

如果是第 2 季度，或者即使是第 1 季度，顯然也會對美元價值預訂和 ASP 產生影響。

I do not know when that transition is going to come actually.

我不知道這種轉變實際上何時會到來。

So I just hope it will not come in Q1 because Q1 is on top of us right now.

所以我只是希望它不會出現在第一季度，因為第一季度現在就在我們之上。

So we are totally clear.

所以我們很清楚。

You are saying that orders should be down sequentially in 1Q.

你是說訂單應該在第一季度依次下降。

Both in terms of the euro or dollar value and units.

無論是歐元還是美元的價值和單位。

The backlog should be up both in units and currency, sequentially?

積壓的單位和貨幣都應該按順序增加嗎？

That may be the case.

情況可能就是這樣。

We will have a bigger backlog but it does not mean to say that our bookings rate will be as high in Q1 as it was in Q4.

我們將有更多的積壓，但這並不意味著我們的預訂率在第一季度將與第四季度一樣高。

I have not extended my thinking that far to be that precise actually.

實際上，我並沒有將我的想法延伸到那麼精確。

But the major question from most people has been, will your backlog be up or down at the end of the first quarter?

但大多數人的主要問題是，第一季度末您的積壓訂單會增加還是減少？

And I am saying I believe slightly up.

而且我說我相信小幅上漲。

Yes, and I think it is definitely true in units.

是的，我認為這在單位中絕對是正確的。

What you are suggesting, Jay, we said that could very well either in Q1 or in Q2.

傑伊，您的建議是，我們說在第一季度或第二季度都可以。

There will be a value added difference because of a shift to 300mm which will have to occur somewhere in 2004, for us to be able to ship that in the second half or in the first quarter of 05.

由於必須在 2004 年的某個地方發生向 300 毫米的轉變，因此將產生附加值差異，以便我們能夠在 05 年下半年或第一季度發貨。

So that is correct.

所以這是正確的。

I mean in terms of value that could be different.

我的意思是價值可能會有所不同。

Right.

正確的。

Good news, though, because we really have a Q1 in which we do not lose order book value.

不過，好消息是，因為我們確實有一個不會損失訂單賬面價值的第一季度。

And I am saying this time round we will probably will have a Q1 in which we [..].

我是說這一次我們可能會有一個第一季度，我們[..]。

We used to have a Q1 in which we lose order book value, and I am saying this time we will probably gain order book value in Q1.

我們曾經在第一季度失去訂單賬面價值，我說這次我們可能會在第一季度獲得訂單賬面價值。

Yes, I mean, going intto the margin issue.

是的，我的意思是，進入保證金問題。

I just do not see how you could not have higher margins this cycle, given the near-term profile in 200mm.

考慮到 200 毫米的近期輪廓，我只是不明白這個週期你怎麼不能有更高的利潤率。

But the cyclical peak margin is going to be a lot more 300mm intensive.

但周期性峰值邊際將更加密集 300 毫米。

And I can see that is where you would be hedging a little bit because you have go to chop some wood to get there, right?

而且我可以看到那是您需要對沖的地方，因為您必須去砍一些木頭才能到達那裡，對嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

To the call administrator.

給呼叫管理員。

It is 5.30pm.

現在是下午 5.30。

We do have a schedule.

我們確實有一個時間表。

Therefore, I think we have to call a halt to the questions at this point in time.

因此，我認為我們必須在這個時間點暫停這些問題。

Thanks for all those who took part and asked your usual difficult and torturous questions.

感謝所有參與並提出您常見的困難和折磨問題的人。

I hope we also gave you difficult and torturous answers, and look forward to seeing you at the end of Q1.

我希望我們也給了你困難和折磨的答案，並期待在第一季度末見到你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML Annual Results 2003 conference call.

女士們先生們，ASML 2003 年度業績電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。