艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2004 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the ASML Holdings third quarter 2004 conference call on October 13, 2004. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 2004 年 10 月 13 日召開的 ASML Holdings 2004 年第三季電話會議。[ 操作員說明]。

I would like to turn the conference over now to Mr. Craig DeYoung.

我現在將會議交給克雷格·德揚先生。

Please sir, go ahead.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to the call.

謝謝您，歡迎您的來電。

This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML.

我是 Craig DeYoung，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。

I'd like to thank you for participating in ASML's third quarter conference call.

我要感謝您參加 ASML 第三季電話會議。

Joining me today is our new CEO, Eric Meurice.

今天加入我的是我們的新任執行長 Eric Meurice。

Also joining me is our retiring CEO, Doug Dunn, and thirdly is Peter Wennink, our CFO.

與我一起加入的還有我們即將退休的執行長 Doug Dunn，第三位是我們的財務長 Peter Wennink。

Just to remind you, this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

謹提醒您，本次通話預計持續 1 小時。

We'd like to start with 1 question only each in the first round, and if we have time, we'd invite you to come back into the call and ask additional questions.

我們希望在第一輪中每個問題僅開始一個問題，如果有時間，我們會邀請您回到通話中並提出其他問題。

Before we start, please allow me to read our Safe Harbor Statement.

在我們開始之前，請允許我閱讀我們的安全港聲明。

The matters discussed during this call include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, economic conditions, product and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new product development, ability to enforce patents, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議期間討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於經濟狀況、產品和定價、製造效率、新產品開發、執行專利的能力、原材料的可用性和關鍵技術。向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的製造設備、貿易環境和其他風險。

At this point, I'd like to hand over to Doug Dunn for a brief statement, followed by your questions.

現在，我想請道格·鄧恩（Doug Dunn）做一個簡短的發言，然後提出大家的問題。

Thanks, Craig, and welcome ladies and gentlemen, followers of ASML.

謝謝克雷格，歡迎女士們先生們，ASML 的追隨者。

Craig, I must say that was the most thrilling and gripping rendering of that that I've ever heard in my life, and I will certainly miss that in the future.

克雷格，我必須說，這是我一生中聽過的最激動人心、最扣人心弦的渲染，我將來肯定會懷念它。

And I'm only pleased that you didn't refer to me as the old CEO.

我唯一高興的是你沒有稱我為老執行長。

That would have really got to my heart.

那真的會觸動我的心。

I want to make a few statements, if I may, just to kick this thing off, just so we try and get some color to the no doubt detailed questions that you gentlemen and ladies will have.

如果可以的話，我想發表一些聲明，只是為了開始這件事，這樣我們就可以嘗試為先生們女士們提出的毫無疑問的詳細問題提供一些線索。

And the points I'd like to bring out are that in the quarter, we achieved many things.

我想指出的一點是，在本季度，我們取得了許多成就。

We increased the value of our order backlog, 12-month order book, by around €0.25b.

我們將積壓訂單（12 個月訂單簿）的價值增加了約 0.25b 歐元。

We generated, from operations and investments, cash of around €79m, €80m.

我們透過營運和投資產生了約 7900 萬歐元、8000 萬歐元的現金。

We achieved our gross margin improvement target in the quarter, and shipped the world's first immersion tool to a U.S. customer.

我們在本季實現了毛利率改善目標，並向美國客戶交付了世界上第一個沉浸式工具。

All those are notable achievements, but perhaps the most noteworthy of all, and certainly from now on very relevant to subsequent meetings like this, we also recruited, hired and brought on board our new CEO, Eric, who is here with us today and will no doubt make his valued contribution as the time goes on.

所有這些都是顯著的成就，但也許是最值得注意的，並且從現在開始肯定與類似的後續會議非常相關，我們還招募、聘用並引進了我們的新任首席執行官埃里克（Eric） ，他今天與我們在一起，並將毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，他將做出寶貴的貢獻。

By the way, he is sitting with a squawk button so if I do say too much, and may commit him to too many great feats in the future, he will press the button, either cut me off, or chop my head off, I'm not sure which.

順便說一句，他坐在一個尖叫按鈕上，所以如果我說太多，並且可能會讓他在未來做出太多偉大的事蹟，他會按下按鈕，要么打斷我，要么砍掉我的頭，我我不確定是哪一個。

I guess you'll find out as the meeting goes on.

我想隨著會議的進行你就會知道了。

So with that kind of brief overview from me on the good features that ASML achieved in the past few months, I would like now to throw it open to your questions.

因此，在我對 ASML 在過去幾個月中所實現的良好功能進行了簡要概述之後，我現在想向您提出問題。

Thank you, sir. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

謝謝你，先生。 [操作員說明]。

The first question comes from Mr. Sheera.

第一個問題來自Sheera先生。

Please state your company name, followed by your question, sir.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi, good afternoon guys, it's Nav Sheera from Citigroup.

大家下午好，我是花旗集團的 Nav Sheera。

Doug, I've got to say this, because it is your swansong and you did ask for it, but it was a great quarter, for the 1 just gone.

道格，我必須這麼說，因為這是你的絕唱，你確實要求它，但這是一個偉大的季度，因為 1 剛剛消失。

Could I just ask, with regard to immersion technology, you stated in the press release that you've shipped your first unit/units.

我想問一下，關於沉浸式技術，您在新聞稿中表示您已經發貨了第一台/多個設備。

Would you be able to give us an idea for rollout of the production machines over the course of the next 12 to 18 months, and what sort of trend would we see in terms of ASP for those tools?

您能否向我們介紹一下在未來 12 到 18 個月內推出生產機器的想法，以及我們會看到這些工具的 ASP 出現什麼樣的趨勢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Nav.

謝謝，納維。

Yes, so we've shipped the first 2.

是的，所以我們已經發貨了前 2 個。

As we say in our press release, it is a kind of pre-production tool.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說，它是一種預生產工具。

The follow-on tools, you ask the next 14, 15-month kind of program.

後續工具，你問下一個14、15個月的計畫。

I don't remember the number offhand, Nav, but certainly we're talking a handful or 2 of tools over the next 12 months.

我不記得具體數字了，Nav，但我們肯定會在接下來的 12 個月內談論一兩個工具。

They will be used by customers in pre-production and pilot production mode.

它們將被客戶用於預生產和試生產模式。

I'm not convinced that they will go into supreme high volume production yet.

我還不相信他們會進入最高批量生產。

It's the time that our customers will use them to evaluate their processes, the resist, etc.

現在我們的客戶將使用它們來評估他們的製程、抗蝕劑等。

What, of course, it does mean for us is that we get in there first, with a clear 12-month lead to see the ground with many, many important customers, including, by the way, some Japanese accounts, so that our tool is the tool of record, tool of qualification.

當然，這對我們來說確實意味著我們首先進入那裡，有明確的 12 個月領先時間，可以看到許多重要客戶的情況，順便說一下，其中包括一些日本客戶，因此我們的工具是記錄的工具，資格的工具。

So that when the volume production kicks in, in 2006 and beyond, it will be mostly our tools that satisfy those needs.

因此，當 2006 年及以後開始大量生產時，我們的工具將主要滿足這些需求。

I would like to say exclusively, but let's see.

我想說的是，但讓我們看看。

So does that answer your question, Nav?

那麼這能回答你的問題嗎，Nav？

On the ASP, I think we've reported before that the early tools were €20m+.

關於 ASP，我想我們之前曾報導過早期工具的價值超過 2000 萬歐元。

I'm sure Eric's not going to want to do any worse than that, and therefore, without putting words in his mouth, it will be a good price.

我確信埃里克不會想做比這更糟糕的事情，因此，不用他說，這將是一個很好的價格。

We will learn how to make them at a lower cost, but equally well, we'll add features to them.

我們將學習如何以較低的成本製造它們，但同樣好，我們將為它們添加功能。

So I'm confident that we'll have a very good gross margin from those products.

因此，我相信我們將從這些產品中獲得非常好的毛利率。

As we have now, by the way, as we have today.

順便說一下，就像我們現在一樣。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Matthew Gehl.

下一個問題來自 Matthew Gehl 先生。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hello, it's Matt Gehl with Goldman Sachs.

大家好，我是高盛的馬特蓋爾。

I know you guys track the utilization rates of your machines in the field, and I was wondering if you could give a bit of commentary on how you saw the utilization rates for the machines move as you went out of Q2 and then through each of the 3 months of Q3, whether that was on a linear rate downward, and whether you've seen any type of an up-tick as we've gone into September and October?

我知道你們在現場追蹤機器的利用率，我想知道你們是否可以對在第二季度之後以及每個季度中機器的利用率如何變化發表一些評論。第三季度的3 個月，是否呈線性下降，以及進入9 月和10 月時是否看到任何類型的上升？

Okay, yes we do track it, you're quite right.

好的，是的，我們確實跟踪它，你說得很對。

We're on line to most of our modern tools, and quite a few of the middle-aged ones also, so we can see that quite clearly.

我們可以使用大多數現代工具，以及相當多的中年工具，因此我們可以非常清楚地看到這一點。

I won't talk about customer specifics, that's not appropriate.

我不會談論客戶的具體情況，那是不合適的。

But in general terms, our tools were heavily utilized, like 95% utilized, if not more, [A10 12 inch] by the way, for certainly the first half of Q3, the first half of Q3, and they were -- as they were in Q2 and Q1 as well, I might add.

但總的來說，我們的工具被大量使用，例如95%，甚至更多，[A10 12 英寸] 順便說一下，在第三季度的前半段，第三季度的前半段，它們是——因為它們我可能會補充說，也在第二季和第一季。

And we have shipped substantial tools so the tool shipments are kept in line only just with the chip demand.

我們已經發貨了大量工具，因此工具發貨量僅與晶片需求保持一致。

It is true also to say that in probably the last half of the last month of Q3, that began to tail off sufficiently that you could see it on the graph.

也確實可以說，可能在第三季最後一個月的後半段，這種情況開始明顯減少，以至於您可以在圖表上看到它。

It wasn't just a one-day little aberration.

這不僅僅是一日的小失常。

I can't speak for the first week or 2 of October.

10 月的第一週或 2 日我不能說話。

I've not actually looked, but I could expect that that tail-off which we saw beginning, I think in early September, has probably continued.

我實際上並沒有看過，但我可以預見，我們在 9 月初開始看到的衰退可能會持續下去。

By the way, it's not a huge tail-off.

順便說一句，這並不是一個巨大的尾巴。

Don't over-estimate this.

不要高估這一點。

Our tools are always the last ones to be taken out of production or reduced because they're the most productive, so I'm sure any [fab] with a dual set of tools, ourselves plus our competition, would see a much bigger reduction for the competition, because ours are much more productive.

我們的工具總是最後被淘汰或減少的，因為它們是生產力最高的，所以我確信任何擁有雙套工具的[晶圓廠]，我們自己加上我們的競爭對手，都會看到更大的減少為了競爭，因為我們的生產力更高。

They're always the last to be taken out, and it's probably dropped down from 95% - I'm giving some averages here - down to 90%, of that order.

它們總是最後被取出的，並且可能從 95%（我在這裡給出了一些平均值）下降到了 90%。

Now, it's up for all of us to anticipate and guess what might happen in the next 6 to 9 months and that's clearly a big issue, and I'm sure every quarter you'll ask Eric this same question, and he'll have a very suitable answer for it.

現在，我們所有人都需要預測和猜測未來 6 到 9 個月會發生什麼，這顯然是一個大問題，我確信每個季度你都會問埃里克同樣的問題，他會一個非常合適的答案。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

It's a pleasure.

我的榮幸。

Can I just follow on, by the way - the high-end tools -- I didn't make this clear.

順便說一下，我可以繼續嗎 - 高端工具 - 我沒有說清楚。

The high-end tools, the Super High NA and the leading edge 200mm tools, maintained a slightly higher utilization.

高階刀具、超高數值孔徑刀具和前緣 200mm 刀具的利用率保持略高。

In fact, it barely dropped off at all, just kind of notionally, so it was mostly at the lower end and the 200mm.

事實上，它幾乎沒有下降，只是概念上的，所以它主要是在低端和 200 毫米處。

The next question is from Mr. Deahna.

下一個問題是 Deahna 先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, it's Jay Deahna from JP Morgan.

大家好，我是摩根大通的 Jay Deahna。

Good afternoon, gentlemen.

下午好，先生們。

Doug, first of all, congratulations on putting the Company into a fantastic competitive position, and more importantly, the operational cash generation turnaround over the last couple of years.

道格首先祝賀公司處於極佳的競爭地位，更重要的是，祝賀過去幾年營運現金產生的轉變。

The question is if global semiconductor capital spending is flat next year, what can ASML's top-line do, given the transition to 300mm and I presume, the recognition of the majority of your immersion tools that are shipped because the ones this year will probably be accepted?

問題是，如果明年全球半導體資本支出持平，考慮到向 300mm 的過渡，ASML 的營收能做什麼，我認為，大多數已發貨的沉浸式工具都得到了認可，因為今年的工具可能會在公認？

So some clarity on the ASP one-on-one effect of that would be helpful in that question.

因此，澄清 ASP 的一對一效果將有助於解決這個問題。

Okay, Jay, thanks for your comments.

好的，傑伊，謝謝你的評論。

I'm not sure I deserve them all.

我不確定我值得擁有這一切。

My team deserves those, but we take it as a universal comment to all of us, not just to myself.

我的團隊應得的，但我們將其視為對我們所有人的普遍評論，而不僅僅是對我自己。

Thanks, anyway.

不管怎麼說，還是要謝謝你。

Next year, you know, in my last kind of set-piece presentation here, I'm not going to be so rash as I was maybe ten years ago to forecast what's going to happen a year from now.

明年，你知道，在我最後一次固定的演講中，我不會像十年前那樣魯莽地預測一年後會發生什麼。

I've no idea, but I'll try and approach your question and help you with it.

我不知道，但我會嘗試解決您的問題並幫助您解決。

So let's take Q4, which is upon us and probably more understandable in Q1, 2 and 3 next year.

因此，讓我們以第四季為例，該季度即將到來，明年的第一季、第二季和第三季可能會更容易理解。

You will see in Q4, as a function of the units that are shippable and the average selling prices on the books, an increase in revenues in Q4, over Q3.

您將在第四季度看到，根據可出貨數量和帳面平均售價，第四季的營收比第三季有所增加。

You will see that.

你會看到這一點。

You know, we can debate with you, but we won't, how much it will go up by, but it will go up, and the only degree of uncertainty is whether we get any, and if so, how many push-outs and frankly, it's in our expectation that we will.

你知道，我們可以與你辯論，但我們不會，它會上漲多少，但它會上漲，唯一的不確定性是我們是否會得到任何，如果是的話，有多少次被淘汰坦率地說，我們期望我們會這樣做。

I have to say that to the complete audience.

我必須對全體觀眾這麼說。

We have a shippable new backlog of around 65 systems.

我們有大約 65 個系統的可交付新積壓訂單。

It is our expectation, and Eric is nodding his head very wisely because he looked into this, that we will see between one and two handfuls, between 5 and 10 of those pushing out of this quarter.

這是我們的期望，Eric 非常明智地點頭，因為他對此進行了調查，我們將看到一到兩個、5 到 10 個人將在本季度推出。

That's a statistical average that we saw in Q3 and why would it change in Q4?

這是我們在第三季看到的統計平均值，為什麼它會在第四季發生變化？

But even with that, even with that, there will be revenue growth in Q4.

但即便如此，第四季的營收仍將成長。

Now you're getting into the realms of next year, and I don't want to give Eric a hill he can't climb here.

現在你即將進入明年的領域，我不想給艾瑞克一座他在這裡無法攀登的山丘。

I know he's a courageous guy.

我知道他是個勇敢的人。

I think taking this opportunity is courageous.

我認為抓住這個機會是有勇氣的。

I think Q1 is going to be another solid quarter.

我認為第一季將是另一個穩定的季度。

It's impossible for me to predict how many push-outs I have in Q1, but a good, solid quarter.

我無法預測第一季有多少次被淘汰，但這是一個不錯的、穩定的季度。

Beyond that, I think it would be in the realms of speculation, but I assure you of this, Jay, that with our comprehensive and fairly commanding superiority in 300mm, with our clear leadership in immersion, you know, unassailable, probably ever, but certainly the next twelve months, whatever the market allows and requires, you are going to find ASML are shipping more than 50% of it.

除此之外，我認為這只是猜測，但傑伊，我向你保證，憑藉我們在300 毫米方面全面且相當絕對的優勢，以及我們在沉浸感方面的明顯領先優勢，你知道，可能永遠是無懈可擊的，但當然，在接下來的 12 個月中，無論市場允許和需要什麼，您都會發現 ASML 的出貨量將超過 50%。

So that's my way of answering your question.

這就是我回答你問題的方式。

I don't know about saying that for next year.

我不知道明年會不會這麼說。

It may soften from our customers' perspective, as you pointed out in your lead-up to the question, but from our point of view, I'm afraid you cannot predict easily, but I can predict very forcefully that there is a commanding position in 300mm, and with our superiority in immersion technology, and more yet to come, by the way, throughout next year, and we will have a lion's share of those sales next year.

從我們客戶的角度來看，它可能會軟化，正如您在提出問題時所指出的那樣，但從我們的角度來看，恐怕您無法輕易預測，但我可以非常有力地預測，存在一個主導地位300毫米，憑藉我們在沉浸式技術方面的優勢，順便說一句，明年我們還將獲得更多的技術優勢，我們將在明年的銷售中佔據最大份額。

The rest, I think, is up to all of us to try and deduce.

我想，剩下的就靠我們大家去嘗試推論了。

Sorry to kind of bottle out on that one, but I know no better way to answer your question, Jay.

抱歉，我在這個問題上有點猶豫不決，但我不知道更好的方法來回答你的問題，傑伊。

Maybe a slight follow-on to that, if you look at your ASPs for this year, how much do you think your ASPs will change next year, given your mix shift to 300mm and immersion?

也許是一個小小的後續，如果你看看今年的 ASP，考慮到你的混合轉向 300mm 和沈浸式，你認為明年的 ASP 會有多大變化？

You know, Jay, I think about two thirds of our bookings by units in the past four or five months have been 300mm, so we are doing a pretty good job in that respect, you know, and we're still just new in Japan.

你知道，傑伊，我認為過去四五個月我們的預訂量中大約有三分之二是 300 毫米，所以我們在這方面做得非常好，你知道，而且我們在日本還只是新手。

Therefore, we have seen some of that ASP coming through, and you see it in our new tool at reselling price twelve months out, which is, I think around €11m or so as we stand.

因此，我們已經看到了一些 ASP 的實現，並且您可以在我們的新工具中以 12 個月後的轉售價格看到它，我認為以我們目前的情況，大約為 1100 萬歐元左右。

So we've seen some of that ASP, but there's a lot more to come yet.

我們已經看到了一些 ASP，但還有更多的東西即將出現。

First of all, that mix will richen further.

首先，這種組合將進一步豐富。

Secondly, the 193 output, which has been relatively modest this year, as our customers have got to get used to that process, that technology, and must use it, so 193 will accelerate through next year.

其次，193的產量今年相對溫和，因為我們的客戶必須習慣那個流程、那個技術，並且必須使用它，所以193明年將會加速。

If anything is to be cut back, it will be 8 inch and 248 and I-line, not 193.

如果要削減的話，那就是 8 英寸、248 和 I-line，而不是 193。

That will accelerate.

這將會加速。

We've already explained to a previous question that there will be more immersion tools, significantly more immersion tools next year, a factor of 10 up on this year, 10x, and you've me say the ASPs they will carry, so again, without building too much expectation on things that are unknown here, it's going to be a very pleasant ride in ASPs for ASML, even next year, even if it is a slight softening year for our customers.

我們已經在前面的問題中解釋過，明年將會有更多的沉浸式工具，明顯更多的沉浸式工具，比今年增加10 倍，10 倍，你已經說過他們將攜帶的ASP，所以再說一次，不要對這裡未知的事情抱有太多期望，即使是明年，即使對我們的客戶來說這是一個稍微疲軟的一年，ASML 的 ASP 也將是一次非常愉快的旅程。

So I guess you just said you're going to shift 20 or 30 immersion tools next year?

所以我猜你剛剛說過明年要更換 20 或 30 個沉浸式工具？

No, I said 10x on what we've shipped so far, and we've shipped one so far, and it is around 10x.

不，我說的是我們迄今為止已發貨的 10 倍，到目前為止我們已經發貨了，大約是 10 倍。

We've always, Jay, that there's going to be around a dozen.

傑伊，我們一直認為大約有十幾個。

Yes, got it, thank you.

是的，明白了，謝謝。

Nice try, though, Jay!

不過，不錯的嘗試，傑伊！

I figured you'd ship two or three before the end of the year, you know!

我想你們會在年底前發貨兩到三個，你知道！

Oh yes, I'm talking about what we shipped so far.

哦，是的，我說的是到目前為止我們已經發貨的東西。

Okay.

好的。

Our next question is from Timothy Arcuri.

我們的下一個問題來自蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Please state your company name, sir, and your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱和您的問題。

It's Smith Barney.

這是史密斯巴尼。

I actually had two questions.

我實際上有兩個問題。

Number one, could you talk a little bit about, for me, geographical perspectives?

第一，您能談談我的地理觀點嗎？

Can you talk a little bit about where you see your regions of strength in Q4 and in Q1, versus weakness?

您能談談您認為第四季和第一季的優勢領域和劣勢領域嗎？

Number one, and I'll ask a follow-up.

第一，我會問後續情況。

Okay, so our geographical spread, as you know, has a great opportunity called Japan, and we're making inroads there.

好的，正如您所知，我們的地理分佈有一個很好的機會，那就是日本，我們正在那裡取得進展。

We've now got four Japanese customers.

我們現在有四位日本客戶。

We announced the fourth one, I think, at the end of Q2.

我想，我們在第二季末宣布了第四個。

We haven't yet named that one, but that's going to be imminent, and it's a big name in Japan, and there will be more to follow next.

我們還沒有命名這個名字，但這即將到來，而且它在日本是一個大牌，接下來還會有更多的名字。

Eric will have the great pleasure of introducing at least one more next year, and who knows, it could be more, but let's at least give it out to the one.

艾瑞克將非常高興明年至少再介紹一個，誰知道呢，可能會更多，但至少讓我們把它送給那個。

So we're making inroads there, so Japan is becoming a populated map as far as we're concerned.

所以我們正在那裡取得進展，所以就我們而言，日本正在成為一個人口稠密的地圖。

You will understand in Japan that you penetrate multiple accounts but in initially a small way.

您會明白，在日本，您會滲透多個帳戶，但最初的滲透程度很小。

You build up on that reputation and that support, until ultimately we take our fair share of the Japanese market, but to start with, therefore, our penetration in percentage of tools shipped in terms of Japan is probably only 6% this year of the total world Japanese market, going to maybe 10% next year, but it's not so much the number of units in the first year or two, it's the quality of the customers, and how many customers you have, because that gives you the real indication of what the potential is in two and three and four years time, and we're going to be populating many of the big names this year and next, in the next year or so.

建立在這種聲譽和支持的基礎上，直到最終我們在日本市場上佔據了公平的份額，但首先，因此，今年我們在日本發貨的工具百​​分比中的滲透率可能僅為 6%世界日本市場，明年可能會成長10%，但重要的不是前一兩年的單位數量，而是客戶的質量，以及你有多少客戶，因為這給了你真正的指示兩年、三年、四年後的潛力是什麼，我們將在今年和明年，在明年左右的時間裡引進許多知名人士。

So, we're becoming stronger in Japan, and there's all to gain there.

所以，我們在日本正在變得更強大，並且在那裡我們可以獲得一切。

We've consolidated our strength in the rest of the regions.

我們已經鞏固了在其他地區的實力。

The biggest, newest one has been China, and new for everyone, and I think it's no secret that if you look at the big investments in China, ASML takes the biggest share of that.

最大、最新的一個是中國，對每個人來說都是新的，我認為如果你看看在中國的巨額投資，ASML 佔據了其中最大的份額，這已經不是什麼秘密了。

I'm tempted to say the lion's share, but I'm not sure how much lions eat these days.

我很想說獅子的份額，但我不確定現在獅子吃了多少。

So we're doing well in China which is the new opening up region for everyone to compete in, and we have a good presence in China and it's my belief that Eric will, with his background, by the way, which is a lot of knowledge of China.

所以我們在中國做得很好，這是一個新的開放地區，每個人都可以參與競爭，我們在中國有很好的影響力，我相信埃里克會，順便說一句，以他的背景，這有很多對中國的了解。

He's worked in that market with Thomson quite extensively.

他與湯姆森在該市場進行了廣泛的合作。

He will be able to build on the beginnings that I've made and really also accelerate the progress in China.

他將能夠在我已經取得的基礎上再接再厲，並真正加速中國的進步。

As far as Europe is concerned, we have very high penetration of Europe, and as far as the USA is concerned, an even higher penetration of the USA, and as far as the rest of Asia's concerned, which is largely Korea and Taiwan, and Singapore as well, we have very high penetration of those regions.

就歐洲而言，我們在歐洲的滲透率非常高，就美國而言，美國的滲透率更高，就亞洲其他地區而言，主要是韓國和台灣，新加坡也是如此，我們在這些地區的滲透率非常高。

So it's looking pretty good geographically for us.

所以對我們來說，它的地理位置看起來相當不錯。

Regarding weakness from market perspective, not an ASML perspective, a market perspective, I don't really think you can pin it down to any one country showing a weakness right now.

從市場角度，而不是ASML角度，從市場角度來看，我真的不認為你可以將其歸咎於任何一個國家現在表現出疲軟。

We've seen customers, as you saw in our Q3 results, backing away a little bit from some of their early commitments, but they were customers certainly not just of one country or one region, so I would not wish to categorize yet, at this early stage, whether there is a particular weak region.

正如您在第三季業績中看到的那樣，我們看到客戶稍微放棄了一些早期的承諾，但他們肯定不僅僅是一個國家或一個地區的客戶，所以我還不想分類，在這個早期階段，是否存在特定的薄弱區域。

I don't think there is.

我認為不存在。

It's customers who see their over-extension on capacity and decide to do the prudent thing early, and cut back a little bit, which for me, frankly, is great.

是客戶看到了產能的過度擴張，並決定儘早採取謹慎的做法，並稍微削減一點，坦白說，這對我來說很棒。

I'd rather they did that now than to cut back a lot in six months time.

我寧願他們現在就這樣做，也不願在六個月內大幅削減。

Okay, great, and maybe as a follow-up?

好吧，太好了，也許作為後續行動？

Yes, I respect your question, Tim, but we'd like to get everyone at least round one, so if you can come back again, I would appreciate that.

是的，我尊重你的問題，提姆，但我們希望每個人至少都能參加第一輪，所以如果你能再次回來，我將不勝感激。

Okay, guys, thanks.

好的，夥計們，謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Robert Mare.

下一個問題是羅伯特·馬雷先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it's Needham & Company.

是的，這是李約瑟公司。

Can you give us a little more color - and by the way, congratulations on very nice numbers - if you could give us a little more color as to the different sectors of the market and their respective strengths and/or weaknesses, maybe on geographic or per product basis?

您能給我們更多的信息嗎？順便說一句，祝賀我們獲得了非常好的數字——如果您能給我們更多關於市場不同部門及其各自的優勢和/或劣勢的信息，也許是在地理或地理上每個產品基礎？

Some of the impressions that I've had are that there seems to be a little more weakness associated with second and third tier customers as compared to top tier customers, and if you could give us a little more granularity.

我的一些印像是，與頂級客戶相比，二線和三線客戶的弱點似乎更多一些，如果您能給我們更詳細一點的話。

I'll try, but you recognize, and I don't apologize for this, I think you'll appreciate that it's important that we keep customer confidentiality, and therefore, any customer that has -

我會嘗試，但你認識到，我不會為此道歉，我想你會明白我們為客戶保密是很重要的，因此，任何客戶 -

Without naming names.

不指名道姓。

Yes, I wouldn't want to do that, and I wouldn't do that, as you know.

是的，我不想那樣做，我也不會那樣做，正如你所知。

So regarding the weakness that we saw in Q3, and it's the back-end of Q3, as I explained, and it wasn't dramatic, but it was enough just to cause us to stop and think about one or two things, it wasn't just any one country.

因此，關於我們在第三季度看到的弱點，正如我所解釋的，這是第三季度的後端，這並不引人注目，但這足以讓我們停下來思考一兩件事，它是不只是任何一個國家。

It was some in Asia, and it was a bit in Europe, and actually, it was those two regions, to be honest, and so far, not in the USA, but that may just be a matter of time.

有一些在亞洲，有一點在歐洲，實際上，老實說，是這兩個地區，到目前為止，還沒有在美國，但這可能只是時間問題。

And I won't go any further.

我不會再繼續下去了。

It was not just Foundry, it was Foundry and IDM, and at that point, I'll stop, because that kind of gives the overview.

這不僅僅是 Foundry，還有 Foundry 和 IDM，到那時，我會停下來，因為這提供了概述。

Regarding our strengths, I guess the backlog is a good indicator of where we're strong and where we're not.

就我們的優勢而言，我認為積壓訂單可以很好地表明我們的優勢和劣勢。

You know, right now, Korea is 29% of our backlog, up from 20% three months ago.

您知道，目前韓國占我們積壓訂單的 29%，而三個月前為 20%。

The USA is 26%, up from 22% three months ago.

美國為 26%，高於三個月前的 22%。

Singapore is 10%; it's down slightly, by 2 or 3 points.

新加坡為10%；略有下降，下降了 2 或 3 個百分點。

Taiwan is down slightly, by 5 or 6 points, and Europe is about the same.

台灣略有下降，下降了5、6個百分點，歐洲也差不多。

And Japan kind of stays the same at quite a small level so far.

到目前為止，日本在相當小的水平上保持不變。

And China is about the same also, actually.

事實上，中國也差不多。

I would not read too much into the health of those regions from that analysis.

我不會從該分析中過度解讀這些地區的健康狀況。

Don't forget, if one customer from any region takes a big bulk purchase in the quarter, of orders given, then it can distort those numbers.

不要忘記，如果來自任何地區的一位客戶在本季度大量採購所​​下的訂單，那麼它可能會扭曲這些數字。

Will that give you some idea of where we are with our backlog by region?

這會讓您了解我們按地區劃分的積壓嗎？

And by end-use, the IDMs, collectively, are 24% of our current backlog.

以最終用途計算，IDM 總共占我們目前積壓訂單的 24%。

They've gone up by 4%, so that analysis says they've strengthened, although I hesitate there because one or two can make a big difference.

它們上漲了 4%，因此分析表明它們已經走強，儘管我對此猶豫不決，因為一兩個可以產生很大的影響。

The Foundries have reduced, from 43% to 32%, and that probably is significant, and they are the first guys who sense the slowdown, because they're kind of collective, and I think, therefore, as everyone predicts, there will be a small slowdown for next year.

代工廠數量已經減少，從43% 減少到32%，這可能很重要，他們是第一批感受到放緩的人，因為他們是集體的，因此，我認為，正如每個人預測的那樣，將會有明年將出現小幅放緩。

The Memory guys are up, in fact, from 36% to 44% of our backlog.

事實上，記憶體人員占我們積壓訂單的比例從 36% 上升到了 44%。

So make of that what you will.

所以你可以隨心所欲地去做。

It's frankly, too early yet to form any real conclusions, but you can see also, by the way, I'll use this point to boast for the Company, that we've got a really good spread between IDM, Foundry and Memory, and therefore we're not prone to any one of them going sour.

坦白說，現在得出任何真正的結論還為時過早，但順便說一句，你也可以看到，我將用這一點來為公司吹噓，我們在IDM、代工和內存之間擁有非常好的差距，因此我們不會輕易讓其中任何一個變質。

Great, thanks for the detail, and congratulations again.

太好了，感謝您的詳細信息，再次祝賀。

The next question is from Mr. Ali Irani.

下一個問題是阿里·伊拉尼先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

This is Ali Irani with CIBC World Markets.

我是 CIBC 世界市場部的阿里·伊拉尼 (Ali Irani)。

I'm hoping, Doug, that you could share with us a little bit about the linearity of bookings through the quarter and the linearity that you expect for the current quarter?

道格，我希望您能與我們分享一些有關本季預訂的線性度以及您對本季的線性度的期望嗎？

Do you see this as a typically back-end loaded bookings event for you in the fourth quarter?

您認為這對您來說是第四季度典型的後端加載預訂活動嗎？

And then, as a follow-up, if you could share with us, it seems there are some share buy-backs this quarter, and whether you are planning to accelerate that, given your improving cash-flows?

然後，作為後續行動，如果您可以與我們分享，本季似乎有一些股票回購，考慮到現金流的改善，您是否計劃加速回購？

For the last one, Ali, we have done no, zero, share buy-back in the - ever, I think, in the last quarter, so that is a misunderstanding there, somehow.

對於最後一個，阿里，我們在上個季度沒有進行過零股票回購，我認為這是一個誤解。

Did you sell?

你賣了嗎？

And I guess your question really is do we plan to do so, and the answer is at this point in time, this management team, including the new CEO, has no plans to do so.

我想你的問題實際上是我們是否計劃這樣做，答案是在這個時間點，這個管理團隊，包括新任首席執行官，沒有計劃這樣做。

Now, of course, we reserve the right to change our minds in the future, but right now, that's our position on that.

當然，現在我們保留未來改變主意的權利，但現在，這就是我們的立場。

The linearity of bookings is - yes, I don't still debate it but I do know, kind of intuitively, it does tend to be a little bit quarter-end loaded, for all kinds of reasons.

預訂的線性是 - 是的，我仍然不會爭論它，但我確實知道，直覺上，由於各種原因，它確實傾向於在季末加載。

First of all, without picking on us, our sales guys also are a bit quarter-end loaded.

首先，雖然沒有挑剔我們，但我們的銷售人員在季度末也有點忙。

That's how they regulate their lifestyles.

這就是他們調節生活方式的方式。

Also our customers are quarter-end loaded, and for some, it was a year-end, so they like to get their bookings in just before the year closes, otherwise the capital expires and they have to start again.

此外，我們的客戶都是季末負荷，對某些人來說，那是年底，所以他們喜歡在年底前完成預訂，否則資金到期，他們必須重新開始。

So it was quarter-end loaded, and I think, looking at the analysis I did today, actually, for this quarter, it does seem as though it's a November/December load, but also this quarter as well.

所以它是季度末加載的，我認為，看看我今天所做的分析，實際上，對於本季度來說，它似乎確實是 11 月/12 月的加載，但也是本季度的加載。

I'm frankly not sure what you can read into that, Ali, too much, but they are the facts for you anyway.

坦白說，我不確定你能從中讀到什麼，阿里，太多了，但無論如何，它們對你來說都是事實。

In terms of the customer base and the ones that you feel still have the greatest risks in that November and December picture, do you see some of the push-outs that you've seen among the Foundry and IDMs having any risk of expanding to the D-RAM portion of your customer base, or at this point, that still looks very steady?

就客戶群以及您認為在 11 月和 12 月的情況中​​仍然面臨最大風險的客戶群而言，您是否看到 Foundry 和 IDM 中出現的一些退出行為有任何擴展到整個市場的風險？您的客戶群中的D-RAM 部分，或者在這一點上，看起來仍然非常穩定？

I didn't remember to cut you off, so I'll answer your question briefly, Ali, but the one only, please.

我不記得打斷你了，所以我會簡短地回答你的問題，阿里，但只有一個問題，拜託。

Right now, there is no indication that any D-RAM guy is having any second thoughts.

目前，沒有任何跡象表明任何 D-RAM 專家正在重新考慮。

Now, that could change in a day, an hour, a week or a month, but that's the fact today, and they've not indicated by any subtle or blatant comments at all.

現在，這種情況可能會在一天、一小時、一周或一個月內發生變化，但這就是今天的事實，而且他們根本沒有通過任何微妙或公然的評論來表明這一點。

In fact, quite a few are still pushing quite hard, so if I could just cut you off at that because you did sneak a second question in there, which I respect you for, and I missed it.

事實上，相當多的人仍在努力推動，所以如果我能打斷你的話，因為你確實偷偷地問了第二個問題，對此我很尊重你，但我錯過了。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Shaka Bramanic (ph).

下一個問題是 Shaka Bramanic 先生（博士）提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, Schwartz [Andrew].

是的，施瓦茨[安德魯]。

I have basically one question, Doug, for you.

道格，我基本上有一個問題想問你。

Do you think that bookings in the third quarter declined about 20% sequentially in dollar terms or euro terms?

您認為第三季的預訂量是按美元計算還是以歐元計算較上一季下降約 20% 左右？

Do you think a similar level of decline in the fourth quarter, and the other question I had, I don't know if you'd answer or not, but did you fail to answer to Jay's question, that fourth quarter shipments on net units is most probably between 50 and 55?

您是否認為第四季度出現類似水平的下降？我提出的另一個問題，我不知道您是否會回答，但您是否沒有回答傑伊的問題，即第四季度淨出貨量最有可能在50到55 之間？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Although I don't allow two questions, I can make the second one of your questions very quick.

雖然我不允許提出兩個問題，但我可以很快地提出第二個問題。

What we said was that the shippable backlog of new units in Q4 is 65, as we stand here making this pitch, actually at the beginning of the quarter, two weeks ago, whenever it was.

我們所說的是，第四季度可交付的新設備積壓量為 65 台，因為我們站在這裡進行此宣傳，實際上是在本季度初，兩週前，無論何時。

And that is the only fact that we can all share between us.

這是我們所有人可以分享的唯一事實。

What it turns out to be at the end of the quarter looking back, we will know in three months time, and Eric will tell you at that point in time.

回顧本季末的情況，我們將在三個月後知道結果，而艾瑞克會在那個時間點告訴你。

I did try to help there, because I recognize that's not always too helpful of me, by saying that in Q3, we saw between 5 and 10 pushing out of Q3, and therefore, just on pure statistical analysis, you might argue that you could see the same again in Q4.

我確實試圖在那裡提供幫助，因為我認識到這並不總是對我有太大幫助，在第三季度，我們看到有5 到10 家公司推出了第三季度，因此，僅根據純粹的統計分析，您可能會認為您可以在第四季度再次看到相同的情況。

That is supposition, and not yet fact, and we won't know.

這只是假設，還不是事實，我們也不知道。

So therefore, you could take the 65 down by whichever number you think is appropriate below that, and I give you the range of possibly 5 to 10.

因此，您可以將 65 減去您認為合適的任何數字，我給您的範圍可能是 5 到 10。

I can be wrong on that range, by the way.

順便說一句，我在這個範圍上可能是錯的。

That's how it was in Q3 and that's the best we can do.

這就是第三季的情況，這是我們能做的最好的事情。

I'm sorry, so that's that one.

抱歉，那就是這個了。

Your first question was on the value of bookings between Q3 and Q2, is that correct?

您的第一個問題是關於第三季和第二季之間的預訂價值，這是正確的嗎？

Yes, it seems like the quick math we did was down 20%.

是的，我們快速算了一下，似乎下降了 20%。

Do you think there will be a similar level of decline in Q4 or do you think it's flattened at this point?

您認為第四季是否會出現類似水準的下降，或者您認為目前已經趨於平緩嗎？

Peter Wennink has learnt, has memorized our order book for the past two years by order, by account, by value and is bursting to give you the value of his knowledge here.

彼得·溫尼克（Peter Wennink）已經學習並記住了我們過去兩年的訂單簿，按訂單、按帳戶、按價值，並且在這裡急切地向您提供他的知識的價值。

So when we look at the Q3 order intake, there was a higher 200mm intake in the third quarter than in the second.

因此，當我們查看第三季的訂單攝取量時，第三季的 200mm 訂單攝取量高於第二季。

So 300mm was more dominant in the second quarter than in the third quarter but I'd like to add to that quickly that you shouldn't read a lot of trend analysis into that, because we are talking about a couple of big customers that buy 300mm and those big customers are a handful, or perhaps one or two more that come in with those orders which are - you could hold up.

因此，300mm 在第二季度比第三季度更占主導地位，但我想快速補充一點，您不應該閱讀大量趨勢分析，因為我們正在談論一些購買的大客戶300mm 和那些大客戶是少數，或者可能是一兩個以上的訂單- 你可以堅持下去。

So really, if you want to look at that trend, you have to take at least two of those quarters, if you combine the second and the third quarter.

因此，實際上，如果您想了解這一趨勢，如果將第二季和第三季合併起來，則必須考慮至少其中兩個季度。

What you will then see is that of the 163 net bookings that we had, 66% was 300mm and 20% was scanners, and 13% or 14% was [estammers].

然後您將看到，在我們的 163 個淨預訂中，66% 是 300mm，20% 是掃描儀，13% 或 14% 是 [estammers]。

So that is the trend that we have seen over the last couple of quarters.

這就是我們在過去幾季看到的趨勢。

So when we look forward, and we see what the investment plans of our customers are, what the [revenue] plans of 300mm caps are, we have no reason to think that that trend will start to deviate very significantly.

因此，當我們展望未來，看到客戶的投資計畫是什麼、300mm 蓋的[收入]計畫是什麼時，我們沒有理由認為這種趨勢將開始出現非常顯著的偏差。

I think Doug made in his opening statement, or as one of the first questions, I think it was the opening statement - very clear that 300mm is going to be very important to us, is going to drive our top-line sales, and our top-line order intake.

我認為道格在他的開場白中提出，或者作為第一個問題，我認為這是開場白 - 非常清楚，300mm 對我們來說非常重要，將推動我們的頂線銷售，以及我們的頂線訂單量。

Thanks, Peter, so, you know, if you look at a day's bookings, you may find it's all 300mm, all 200mm.

謝謝，彼得，所以，你知道，如果你看一下一天的預訂，你可能會發現都是 300 毫米，都是 200 毫米。

You've got to be careful with our lumpy kind of business that you don't read too much into a short time.

你必須小心我們這種不穩定的業務，不要在短時間內讀太多。

You've got to look at some statistical averages, and two quarters is perhaps the minimum you take to be significant here.

您必須查看一些統計平均值，而兩個季度可能是您認為有意義的最小值。

Are you suggesting -

你是否建議——

No, I'm actually - well, actually, clarification, that's okay, go on.

不，我實際上 - 嗯，實際上，澄清一下，沒關係，繼續。

Are you suggesting that industry fundamentals has somewhat softened here, in your customers' fundamental, that there is a possibility orders may not decline in Q4?

您是否認為產業基本面（您的客戶基本面）有所軟化，第四季訂單可能不會下降？

You're asking me to forecast the un-forecastable here.

你要求我預測這裡不可預測的事。

All right, thank you.

好吧。謝謝。

That's it.

就是這樣。

It's beyond me.

這超出了我的範圍。

The next question is from Mr. Mark Fitzgerald.

下一個問題是馬克·菲茨傑拉德先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券。

Can you give us some input as to what's going on with the R&D expenses, and are you guys still committed to keeping expenses flat going forward?

您能給我們一些關於研發費用的情況的意見嗎？你們仍然致力於保持未來費用不變嗎？

So, I think it was four or five quarters ago we gave you a range for SG&A and R&D, and we've a quarter to go yet, I appreciate that, but I think you will give us credit for having been bang on in that range for every quarter for the past three or four quarters and I'm sure the fourth quarter, as we say in our press release, will have no nasty surprises either.

所以，我認為四、五個季度前我們給了你們一個銷售、行政管理和研發的範圍，我們還有一個季度的時間，我對此表示讚賞，但我認為你們會因為我們在這方面的努力而受到讚揚過去三、四個季度每季的波動範圍，我確信第四季度，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，也不會出現令人討厭的意外。

If you'll allow us to remove from that the settlement of the cross-license issue, which I think you'll understand is exceptional, so we kept faith and you with us, by the way, thank you, for the past four or five quarters.

如果您允許我們刪除交叉許可問題的解決方案，我想您會理解這是例外的，所以我們保持信心，您和我們在一起，順便說一句，謝謝您，在過去的四個或五個季度。

Regarding next year, we're going to go through our budget process this quarter.

關於明年，我們將在本季完成預算流程。

Eric will lead that discussion, and he will come forward again with the rights [pend] for ASML, whether it's more or less, I don't know, and that will be based on the programs we have to achieve, and also on the temperature of the market, and I think it would be probably a little bit inappropriate for me to comment on the outcome of that since we haven't had that process in place yet.

艾瑞克將領導這場討論，他將再次提出對 ASML 的權利[待定]，無論是或多或少，我不知道，這將基於我們必須實現的計劃，也基於市場的溫度，我認為我對這一結果發表評論可能有點不合適，因為我們還沒有製定這個流程。

Whatever he decides to do will be the right thing, and you will be able to measure him against that, and have the same degree of success, I'm sure, if not more so than I have.

無論他決定做什麼，都將是正確的事情，你將能夠以此來衡量他，並獲得同樣程度的成功，我確信，如果不是比我更多的話。

But for this quarter coming, the fourth quarter, it's still my commitment, although I am no longer actively CEO, and therefore, we'll still achieve it.

但對於即將到來的這個季度，第四季度，這仍然是我的承諾，儘管我不再積極擔任首席執行官，因此，我們仍然會實現它。

And just a quick explanation of the cross-licensing payment?

簡單解釋一下交叉許可付款？

Peter, do you want to do that?

彼得，你想這麼做嗎？

The cross-license payment, that was a payment for the cross-license we entered into with Nikon, and that was a payment that we made to Nikon, or we're going to make, likely in the fourth quarter, when we sign the definitive agreement, and that payment is split in, for ease of [mal] in $60m, that's the first tranche, and then $27.5m which will be spread over three years.

交叉許可付款，這是我們與尼康簽訂的交叉許可的付款，這是我們向尼康支付的款項，或者我們可能會在第四季度簽署協議時支付的款項最終協議，並且為了方便[mal]，付款被分成第一部分，即6,000 萬美元，然後是2,750 萬美元，將分三年支付。

So it is in fact a payment done for getting the cross-license signed, giving effect to the fact that the present portfolio that we're talking about for the other side was considerably larger, because they are a somewhat older company.

因此，這實際上是為簽署交叉許可而支付的費用，這表明我們正在談論的另一方目前的投資組合要大得多，因為他們是一家比較老的公司。

So what we have then done, we have looked at the average term of those licenses, of those patents, and we have determined what is basically past, you could say past service on those patents and what still is a potential benefit to the Company, and what we thought was in the past service on the life of those patents was taken into the income statement in the third quarter because it is more likely than not that we will incur that charge.

因此，我們隨後所做的，我們研究了這些許可、這些專利的平均期限，並且我們已經確定了基本上已經過去的內容，您可以說這些專利過去的服務以及對公司仍然有潛在利益的內容，我們認為過去的服務對這些專利的生命週期的影響已納入第三季的損益表中，因為我們很可能會承擔這項費用。

And for the remainder, that will be capitalized and that will be amortized, giving effect to the remaining life of those patents going forward.

對於剩餘的部分，這將被資本化並被攤銷，從而使這些專利的剩餘壽命在未來生效。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

The next question is from Mr. [inaudible].

下一個問題是[聽不清楚] 先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi there, Nicholas Gaudois from Deutsche Bank.

是的，您好，我是德意志銀行的尼可拉斯‧高杜瓦 (Nicholas Gaudois)。

Just a clarification, guys, on the gross margin guidance for Q4, you're saying 39% to 40% in the press release.

請澄清一下，夥計們，關於第四季度的毛利率指導，你們在新聞稿中說是 39% 到 40%。

I think two weeks ago you were mentioning 40% but 39% potentially if you're seeing these 5 to 10 push-outs materializing.

我想兩週前你提到了 40%，但如果你看到這 5 到 10 次淘汰的情況成為現實，那麼潛在的可能性是 39%。

Could you just clarify what we see, is that 39% to 40% without push-outs or in fact, the lower band is if you see about 5 to 10 units short in shipments by then?

您能否澄清一下我們所看到的情況，即 39% 到 40% 沒有推出，或者事實上，如果您看到屆時出貨量短缺約 5 到 10 個單位，則較低的範圍是？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, but you recognize our difficulty in forecasting a gross margin, which is subject to the variance of mix, so it depends on what gets pushed out, if anything, and assuming that there will be.

是的，但是您認識到我們很難預測毛利率，毛利率會受到組合差異的影響，因此這取決於推出的內容（如果有的話），並假設會有。

That gives us the difficulty of precision that you would like, and I'm afraid we can't help you.

這給我們帶來了您想要的精確度的困難，恐怕我們無法幫助您。

The best we can give you is what we have given you, and that range, we believe, as we sit here today, is between 39% and 40%.

我們能給你們的最好的就是我們已經給你們的，我們今天坐在這裡，相信這個範圍在 39% 到 40% 之間。

You know, if you look at either extreme, it could be less or more, and I think that would be inappropriate.

你知道，如果你看任何一個極端，它可能會更少或更多，我認為這是不合適的。

Let me rephrase the question.

讓我重新表達一下這個問題。

If you - all of the 65 tools you've got in backlog, new tools for shipment, assume that you have about 10 push-outs, the maximum of the risk you've just outlined, Doug, would you be able to do 39% gross margin as your best [estimate]?

如果您 - 您積壓的所有 65 個工具，待發貨的新工具，假設您有大約 10 個推出，您剛剛概述的最大風險，Doug，您能做 39 % 毛利率是您的最佳[估計] ？

What tools are going to get pushed out?

哪些工具會被淘汰？

10 of those 65 in your backlog.

待辦事項中的 65 個中的 10 個。

Yes, well, the problem is if they were - and I don't want to put my burden on you, because it is my burden, but if they were all 200mm then you'd have one answer.

是的，好吧，問題是如果它們是 - 我不想把我的負擔加在你身上，因為這是我的負擔，但如果它們都是 200mm 那麼你就會有一個答案。

If they are all 300mm, you have another answer, and that's the problem.

如果它們都是 300mm，你就有另一個答案，這就是問題所在。

Nick, on the reason for making that bandwidth stretch from 40% to 39% to 40%, the reason is basically, when we look at the shippable backlog for the book order, that we have seen some product mix changes in terms of shipment towards the end of the quarter, whereby only a very few, very high value tools, but also relatively high, I would say, margin tools, have just shifted from the last few weeks of the month of December to the first few weeks [of January].

尼克，關於使頻寬從 40% 延伸到 39% 再到 40% 的原因，基本上是因為，當我們查看圖書訂單的可發貨積壓時，我們看到發貨方面的一些產品組合發生了變化在季度末，只有極少數、非常高價值的工具，但我想說的是，保證金工具也相對較高，剛從12 月的最後幾週轉移到[1 月的前幾週] ]。

So that is what actually happened.

這就是實際發生的情況。

So it is a product mix issue at the high-end, which we plan to shift towards the end of the year, which are now planned to go a little later than we thought.

所以這是一個高端產品組合問題，我們計劃在今年年底轉向，現在計劃比我們想像的要晚一點。

So that is the main reason.

這是主要原因。

Okay.

好的。

So we really think that that range is the right range.

所以我們確實認為這個範圍是正確的範圍。

You know, that's our best guess today, and if the mix of push-outs are average, reflecting the mix of the backlog, then the percentage will stay in that range, okay?

你知道，這是我們今天最好的猜測，如果推出的組合是平均的，反映了積壓的組合，那麼百分比將保持在這個範圍內，好嗎？

If the mix push-out is unaverage, like all 200mm or all 300mm, then it may affect that percentage either way.

如果混合推出不平均，例如全部 200 毫米或全部 300 毫米，那麼它可能會影響該百分比。

But we think that's the best statistical guess we can give you.

但我們認為這是我們可以為您提供的最佳統計猜測。

And on average, if you could say that indeed, if we're losing between 5 and 10 systems, if we lose 10 systems we have less load in [the factory].

平均而言，如果你確實可以這麼說，如果我們失去 5 到 10 個系統，如果我們失去 10 個系統，我們[工廠]的負載就會減少。

Clearly the impact on the gross margin with 10 systems would be bigger than with 5.

顯然，10 個系統對毛利率的影響會比 5 個系統更大。

Yes, that's a volume effect.

是的，這就是音量效應。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Ulrich Pelzer.

下一個問題來自 Ulrich Pelzer 先生。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hello, it's Ulrich Pelzer, Lehmans.

是的，你好，我是雷曼兄弟的烏爾里希·佩爾澤。

Just a quick one, also around the shipment issue.

簡單說一下，也是關於出貨問題的。

I am a bit lost, frankly, in that I thought, three weeks ago, over the Analyst Day the indication was that there might be sort of five to ten tools pushed, taking the shipment level down to, let's call it 65, which now is your guidance, and on top of that, you're expecting another 5 to 10 units that might be pushed?

坦白說，我有點迷失，因為我認為，三週前的分析師日，有跡象表明可能會推出五到十種工具，將出貨量水平降至，我們稱之為 65，現在是這是您的指導意見，除此之外，您預計還會推出另外5 到10 個單位嗎？

Is that impression correct, and if so, where did things get worse over the last two or three weeks?

這種印像是否正確？如果正確，過去兩三週情況在哪裡變得更糟？

I'm not sure I can complete your circle here, but I just repeat, because I give you the best information we have on the day. 65 shippable backlog right now is subject to a possible reduction by between 5 and 10 if our kind of critical analysis comes to pass.

我不確定我是否能在這裡完成您的圈子，但我只是重複一遍，因為我為您提供了我們當天掌握的最佳資訊。如果我們的關鍵分析得以通過，目前 65 個可交付的積壓訂單可能會減少 5 到 10 個。

I can't relate that to your question, actually, too easily.

事實上，我不能太容易地將其與你的問題聯繫起來。

I know that Peter [Wennink] has had some time to think about it while I've been waffling here.

我知道當我在這裡胡言亂語時，彼得[溫尼克]已經花了一些時間思考這個問題。

So regardless of what we said in the past, you know, the current view is, as we're saying right now.

因此，無論我們過去說過什麼，你知道，當前的觀點就是我們現在所說的。

Clearly our view may have changed in the past three months, three quarters and even three weeks.

顯然，我們的觀點可能在過去三個月、三個季度甚至三週內發生了變化。

Yes, and perhaps I could shed some light on this.

是的，也許我可以解釋一下這一點。

At the Analyst Meeting we said there was a consensus out there that we were shipping around 67.

在分析師會議上，我們表示大家一致認為我們的出貨量約為 67。

Oh, that's right, yes.

哦，原來如此，是的。

That's what I said.

這就是我所說的。

That was then.

就是那時。

Well, we're a couple of weeks later, and indeed, when we look at the shippable backlog that we currently have, it is not 67, but it is 65, and that 5 to 10 range is still, you know, valid.

好吧，幾週後，事實上，當我們查看當前的可交付積壓訂單時，它不是 67 個，而是 65 個，而且 5 到 10 個範圍仍然有效。

So even a few weeks ago, you would have to apply the factor 10 range to 67.

因此，即使在幾週前，您也必須將因子 10 應用於 67。

Now you have to apply it to 65.

現在你必須將其應用到 65。

That is the only explanation.

這是唯一的解釋。

That's right.

這是正確的。

The 65 wasn't the number that we had given out then, because it was still not the reporting time, and the estimates from you guys was 67, and then you did the math on 67.

65不是我們當時給的數字，因為還沒到報道的時間，你們估計是67，然後你們算了一下67。

You should have got 57, I guess, so 62, and now the real number is 65, and you must do the math on that.

我猜你應該得到 57，所以是 62，現在實際數字是 65，你必須對此進行數學計算。

Okay, then, so the math is more clear now.

好吧，那現在數學就更清楚了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, it's a pleasure.

好吧，很高興。

The next question is from Mr. Danjou.

下一個問題是 Danjou 先生提出的。

Good afternoon, gentlemen.

下午好，先生們。

I had a simple question on inventories.

我有一個關於庫存的簡單問題。

They are rising significantly, sequentially, Q3/Q2 and I was just wondering what's the reason for that?

第三季/第二季它們連續顯著上升，我只是想知道其中的原因是什麼？

Okay, I can be quite -

好吧，我可以很-

Very blunt on this one.

在這一點上非常直率。

Very quick on this one.

這件事很快。

We have a shippable backlog for 65 units, which will be highly determinate in terms of shipments by 300mm tools to have a higher average selling price and a higher average cost.

我們有 65 台可出貨的積壓訂單，這對於 300mm 工具的出貨量具有很大的決定性，以獲得更高的平均售價和更高的平均成本。

Those tools that we're going to ship in this quarter are for a very large part in test and in assembly, so they are work in process to support a quarter that we all believe is going to be significantly higher than the third quarter.

我們將在本季度發貨的這些工具大部分用於測試和組裝，因此它們正在加工中，以支持我們都認為將顯著高於第三季度的季度。

It's work in progress.

該工作正在進行中。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Jan-Willem Berghuis.

下一個問題是 Jan-Willem Berghuis 先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it's Kempen & Co. I have a question on your [Refurbs] business.

是的，我是 Kempen & Co。我對你們的 [Refurbs] 業務有疑問。

Obviously it's fluctuating on a quarterly basis, as your new tool business is doing.

顯然，正如您的新工具業務所做的那樣，它會按季度波動。

What is your expectation for next year?

您對明年有何期望？

Do you think it can maintain the current levels we've seen over the past few quarters, or do you see possibly an acceleration or deceleration in the Refurb sales?

您認為它可以維持我們過去幾季所看到的當前水準嗎？或者您認為翻新產品的銷售可能會加速還是減速？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, again it's, you know, guessing the impossible.

是的，你知道，這又是猜測不可能的事。

You know, Refurbs [depends] on two things, capacity demand for the older technologies, and if there is a slowdown from our customers, then that's likely to be one of the things affected, primarily, and also the availability of second-hand tools to refurb and supply against them.

您知道，翻新[取決於]兩件事，即對舊技術的容量需求，如果我們的客戶放緩，那麼這可能是受影響的因素之一，主要是二手工具的可用性針對他們進行翻新和供應。

So a lot of imponderables in that.

所以這裡面有很多不可估量的地方。

To an approximation, I would say that next year, it would be no more than this year, and could well be less than this year, but that's very much a kind of an off-the-cuff comment, and let's see how next year works out.

近似地說，我會說明年不會超過今年，而且很可能會少於今年，但這在很大程度上是一種即興評論，讓我們看看明年會如何有效。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Mr. Karsten Iltgen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Karsten Iltgen 先生。

Could you please state your company name, sir, followed by your question?

先生，您能說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題嗎？

Yes, it's Karsten Iltgen from WestLB, hello.

是的，我是來自 WestLB 的 Karsten Iltgen，大家好。

I have a question concerning your Japanese order backlog, which is now showing up.

我有一個關於你們的日本積壓訂單的問題，該訂單現已顯示。

Is that the customer you mentioned at the end of Q2, or is it multiple customers?

是您在第二季末提到的客戶，還是多個客戶？

You mean in the backlogs right now?

你是說現在積壓的訂單嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think there's probably multiple customers in there, actually.

我認為實際上那裡可能有多個顧客。

It's not just the one that we mentioned in the Q2 call but I'm not actually - yes, my colleagues are nodding their heads.

這不僅僅是我們在第二季電話會議中提到的，但我實際上不是——是的，我的同事們都在點頭。

I think there is more than one customer in that backlog that now shows up, yes.

我認為現在出現的積壓訂單中不只一個客戶，是的。

That customer is in there as well, but there's more than just him or her.

該顧客也在那裡，但不僅僅是他或她。

That's probably two customers, or maybe -

那可能是兩個顧客，也或許——

It's more than one, okay?

不只一個，好嗎？

It can't be more than four, so you can - I don't have that detail in front of me, but it's more than one and less than four.

它不能超過四，所以你可以——我面前沒有那個細節，但它大於一且小於四。

Right, thank you.

對了，謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Griffin.

下一個問題是格里芬先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, Andrew Griffin of Merrill.

你好，美林公司的安德魯格里芬。

Congratulations, Doug, again, on the quarter.

再次恭喜道格，本季表現出色。

You guys have been very emphatic about revenues going up in the fourth quarter.

你們非常強調第四季營收的成長。

Last quarter you were emphatic about the backlog going up.

上個季度，您強調了積壓的情況。

What's the direction of backlog going to be in the fourth quarter?

第四季積壓訂單的走向是什麼？

There we have more hesitancy, Andrew, which is a smart question from you, as I expect.

安德魯，我們有更多的猶豫，正如我所料，這是一個聰明的問題。

No, if the industry and our customers is kind of beginning to slow, then this is the quarter that we may see it coming through in bookings, not in billings.

不，如果行業和我們的客戶開始放緩，那麼這個季度我們可能會看到它在預訂方面出現，而不是在帳單方面出現。

As I have stated several times, and my colleagues all nod vigorously, the revenues and billings in Q4 will be higher than Q3, and not just by a dollar.

正如我多次說過的，我的同事們都大力點頭，第四季的收入和帳單將比第三季高，而且不僅僅是一美元。

Bookings is a more difficult one to judge, and I frankly don't want to judge it at this call.

預訂是一個更難判斷的問題，坦白說，我不想在這次電話會議上對其進行判斷。

I mean, in the past, in the growing market, the past three quarters we've been fairly confident in predicting an increased backlog.

我的意思是，在過去，在不斷成長的市場中，過去三個季度我們對預測積壓數量的增加相當有信心。

Now the fact that I'm not prepared to commit to that means that we have some doubts, okay, about whether it will just grow, or just decline or whatever.

現在，我不准備承諾這一點，這意味著我們對它是否會增長，或者只是下降或其他什麼有一些疑問。

What I can say, however, is that the backlog will be still very rich in 300mm and High NA tools, which is where our forte is, and that's going to give us some resilience against a softening of the market and it's because we have these tools available and we're in the lead that we have that resilience.

然而，我可以說的是，300mm 和高數值孔徑工具的積壓仍然非常豐富，這是我們的強項，這將為我們提供一定的抵禦市場疲軟的能力，因為我們擁有這些我們擁有可用的工具，而且我們在這種彈性方面處於領先地位。

So our resilience to a slowdown is higher than any other Litho supplier, but I will not be drawn to comment on the Q4 backlog number because Eric will have great pleasure in telling you that in three months time, with a nice French accent, by the way, as opposed to my broad Yorkshire accent.

因此，我們對經濟放緩的抵禦能力比任何其他Litho 供應商都要高，但我不會對第四季度的積壓訂單數量發表評論，因為Eric 會很高興地告訴你，在三個月的時間裡，用一口漂亮的法國口音，方式，而不是我濃重的約克郡口音。

Tres bien, thanks a lot, Doug.

非常好，非常感謝，道格。

The next question is from Jonathan Dutton.

下一個問題來自喬納森·達頓。

Go ahead, please, sir, and state your company name, please.

先生，請說明您的公司名稱。

Yes, it's Joe Dutton from UBS.

是的，他是瑞銀集團的喬·達頓。

Congratulations on a great quarter, and just a simple question from me.

恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度，我只想問一個簡單的問題。

The ASPs during the quarter fell, I think, from around €9m to €8.7m, and there was a 250 basis points improvement in the gross margins, and you've guided to a 20% to 25% increase in ASPs for new systems next quarter but only a 100 to 200 basis points improvements in gross margins.

我認為，本季的平均售價從約 900 萬歐元下降至 870 萬歐元，毛利率提高了 250 個基點，並且您已指導新系統的平均售價增加 20% 至 25%下個季度毛利率僅提高100 至200 個基點。

So I was just wondering if you could outline when you think the cross-over is going to come in terms of the profit margins in 300mm versus 200mm, in terms of the critical shipment volumes, and also the dynamics in that margin expansion compared to the ASP increases which you're forecasting?

因此，我只是想知道您是否可以概述一下您認為 300 毫米與 200 毫米的利潤率、關鍵出貨量以及與 200 毫米相比利潤率擴張的動態方面何時會出現跨界。您預測ASP 會增加嗎？

We'll have to have several crystal balls to get that.

我們必須有幾個水晶球才能做到這一點。

I mean, it's a good question, by the way, don't get me wrong, but it's a tough one as well without, you know, massive data mining to go and explore it.

我的意思是，順便說一句，這是一個很好的問題，請不要誤會我的意思，但是如果沒有大量的數據挖掘來探索它，這也是一個困難的問題。

So we have increased our gross margins through volume improvements, through the year and through also our costs of those reduction programs, and to our valuable ownership improvements of the product.

因此，我們透過全年銷售的提高、這些削減計劃的成本以及我們對產品的寶貴所有權的改進，提高了毛利率。

That is going to continue in Q4.

這種情況將在第四季繼續下去。

What you're seeing is probably, in Q4, a slight leveling out of that.

您所看到的情況可能是，在第四季度，情況略有趨於平穩。

It's not leveling out, but a reduction in the growth of that gross margin, and that's your question.

這不是趨於平穩，而是毛利率成長的減少，這就是你的問題。

Intrinsically, you know, as you heard from previous questions I've answered in this last half hour or so, the average selling price is driving mostly upwards.

從本質上講，你知道，正如你從我在過去半小時左右回答的之前的問題中聽到的那樣，平均售價大部分都在上漲。

We're talking there about immersion tools, which will sell, you know, in the order of 10 out - and don't quote me on that - but in the order of 10 out next year, at €20-ish million.

我們在那裡談論的是沉浸式工具，你知道，它的銷量將達到 10 件——不要引用我的話——但明年的銷量將達到 10 件，售價約 2000 萬歐元。

And you've also heard me say that as we learn to make them, the costs will go down, and therefore the gross margin is going to be good.

你也聽我說過，當我們學會製造它們時，成本就會下降，因此毛利率會很高。

So this Company will intrinsically have good gross margins and good ASP growth, and good revenue growth for a long, long, long time to come yet.

因此，該公司本質上將在未來很長一段時間內擁有良好的毛利率和良好的平均售價成長以及良好的收入成長。

It's difficult to predict that always on a quarterly basis, and we have explained to you that the problem we face right now is our accuracy diminishes as the uncertainty increases for this next few months, because we don't precisely know what's going to happen from a demand point of view, which will get pushed out, if any, and also, we're just human as well.

總是按季度進行預測是很困難的，我們已經向您解釋過，我們現在面臨的問題是，隨著未來幾個月不確定性的增加，我們的準確性會下降，因為我們無法準確地知道接下來會發生什麼需求的觀點，如果有的話，將會被排除，而且，我們也只是人類。

We make pretty sophisticated tools here, and if at the end of a quarter, when a customer wants in the last week of the quarter, if he changes his mind by a week because his pipelines are not in place, or if we have a hiccup in our tests by a week and it slips into next quarter, that also has an impact, and Peter's explained that you as well.

我們在這裡製作非常複雜的工具，如果在季度末，當客戶想要在該季度的最後一周，如果他因為管道沒有到位而改變主意一周，或者如果我們遇到了問題在我們的測試中，它提前一周，並且會滑入下個季度，這也會產生影響，彼得也向您解釋了這一點。

These are real life issues that we face, and therefore, we've tried to give you some guidance by saying it might only increase by 1% to 2% this coming quarter.

這些是我們面臨的現實生活問題，因此，我們試圖為您提供一些指導，表示下個季度可能只會增加 1% 到 2%。

I think that's quite a good achievement, personally, and given the uncertainty, we've tried to bracket the range for you, and I can't go any further than that.

我認為就我個人而言，這是一項相當不錯的成就，考慮到不確定性，我們已盡力為您確定範圍，但我不能再進一步了。

The 300mm product, which is part of your question, in Q1 of next year will be at an equivalent percentage gross margin as 200mm, so if you like, the cross-over point comes in the next four or five or six months.

300毫米產品，這是你問題的一部分，明年第一季的毛利率將與200毫米相當，所以如果你願意的話，交叉點將在未來四、五、六個月內出現。

And it's not a lot - it's not far away now either.

而且也不是很多——現在也不遠了。

And Eric's just saying, slow down, Doug, you know, maybe he wants a bit of a relief on that one.

艾瑞克只是說，慢點，道格，你知道，也許他想在這件事上得到一點緩解。

So let me call it nine months, to give him the chance to verify that, and I recognize I'm making commitments for him now in good faith, by the way.

因此，讓我稱之為九個月，讓他有機會驗證這一點，順便說一下，我認識到我現在正在真誠地為他做出承諾。

But we think that's the case, in the first quarter of next year we should be at, or close to that cross-over point.

但我們認為情況確實如此，明年第一季我們應該達到或接近這個交叉點。

Beyond that, it's up to Eric.

除此之外，這取決於埃里克。

Great, thanks a lot.

太好了，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. van der Bruggen.

下一個問題是范德布魯根先生提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hello, Gaetan van der Bruggen from Petercam.

是的，你好，來自 Petercam 的 Gaetan van der Bruggen。

I have a quick clarification question concerning the immersion tool, so you shipped two in Q3.

我有一個關於沉浸式工具的快速澄清問題，所以你們在第三季度發貨了兩個。

Did you say it was to a US customer?

你說的是美國客戶嗎？

Quickly, the correction is, I said one, I hope, and it is one, not two.

很快，更正是，我說的是一個，我希望，它是一個，而不是兩個。

I think I said one, but maybe that was just the distortion on the line there, and I did say it was to a US customer, yes.

我想我說了一個，但也許這只是線路上的扭曲，我確實說過這是對一位美國客戶的，是的。

Okay, because there is still that TSMC that has announced it has ordered an immersion tool at ASML.

好吧，因為還有台積電宣布已向 ASML 訂購沉浸式工具。

TSMC were the first company to give us an order, but they are -

台積電是第一家給我們下訂單的公司，但他們 -

Yet to receive it?

還沒收到？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

You said it.

你說的。

Okay, thank you, Doug, and I suppose I would like to wish you all the best for the future.

好的，謝謝你，道格，我想我祝你未來一切順利。

Thank you, and you also.

謝謝你，還有你。

Mr. Menon, please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

梅農先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it's Janardan Menon from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

是的，我是 Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 的 Janardan Menon。

When I look at where you got your orders in Q3, it looks like you've got quite a heavy number of orders from D-RAM companies in Korea and some, probably, from large IDMs in the US, etc, which is very similar to the kind of Q3 that you had last year in 2003, where it seemed to be that it was very much these customers who gave you your orders in Q3 last year as well, in the last two weeks of Q3, if I remember right.

當我看一下你們第三季的訂單來源時，看起來你們有相當多的訂單來自韓國的 D-RAM 公司，還有一些可能來自美國的大型 IDM 等，這非常相似類似於去年2003 年的第三季度，如果我沒記錯的話，去年第三季的最後兩週似乎也是這些客戶給了你訂單。

In Q4 last year, you, well, these customers seemed to have dropped off a little bit.

去年第四季度，這些客戶似乎有所下降。

You got the Foundries pitching in, and your orders went up quite a bit.

你得到了鑄造廠的參與，你的訂單增加了很多。

Now, in the current environment it seems to be - I might be wrong - but it seems to be unlikely that the Foundries are going to be coming in very strongly in the fourth quarter, and some of the other big customers seem to have placed their orders.

現在，在當前的環境下，似乎 - 我可能是錯的 - 但代工廠似乎不太可能在第四季度表現強勁，而其他一些大客戶似乎已經將他們的命令。

So can you just give us some confidence that you are in negotiations with some, say, non-Foundry kind of customers right now for potential Q4 orders, which will give some semblance of stability or whatever to the order book into Q4, or am I making a sort of wrong call altogether here?

那麼，您能否給我們一些信心，讓我們相信您現在正在與一些非Foundry 類客戶就潛在的第四季度訂單進行談判，這將為第四季度的訂單帶來一些表面上的穩定性或其他什麼，或者我是這樣嗎？這裡完全打錯電話了嗎？

I'm not sure you can make a wrong or right call, but certainly your memory's good, better than mine, actually!

我不確定你會做出錯誤或正確的決定，但你的記憶力肯定很好，實際上比我的好！

But yes, I think looking back, you're probably right on the analysis of last year, but let me give you the reassurance you want here.

但是，是的，我認為回顧過去，你去年的分析可能是正確的，但讓我在這裡給你想要的保證。

We are in discussion, and therefore negotiation, or wrestling match, if you like, with serious big players that will provide us with substantial orders this quarter.

我們正在與認真的大玩家進行討論，因此正在談判，或者摔跤比賽，如果你願意的話，這些大玩家將在本季度為我們提供大量訂單。

I've been reticent to say whether the order book this quarter will go up or go down with the backlog, and I still maintain that reticence.

我一直不願透露本季的訂單量是否會隨著積壓而上升或下降，我仍然保持沉默。

But of course, let me narrow the gap a bit.

當然，讓我稍微縮小一下差距。

It's not going to - for sure the order book won't double in the next three months, and for sure, it won't halve either.

不會的——訂單量肯定不會在未來三個月內翻倍，當然也不會減半。

So we're not expecting a desert of orders.

因此，我們預計不會出現大量訂單。

We are expecting orders to be reasonable, and there are some big accounts who we are in discussion with right now.

我們預計訂單會比較合理，目前我們正在與一些大客戶進行討論。

But I won't be drawn any further than that, because closing an order is a function of many things, including the customer looking in your eyes and calling you chicken as well.

但我不會比這更進一步，因為關閉訂單是很多事情的函數，包括客戶看著你的眼睛並稱你為膽小鬼。

So let's see, but it's going to be an order intake in the quarter which is not going to be disgraceful at all, and it could well be quite good, and let's just see how it works out.

所以讓我們看看，但這將是本季度的訂單量，這根本不會令人丟臉，而且很可能相當不錯，讓我們看看結果如何。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

The next question is from Mr. Dan Bergrey (ph).

下一個問題是 Dan Bergrey 先生（博士）提出的。

Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

先生，請說出您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, yes, UBS O'Connor, the first question actually for Eric and Peter.

你好，是的，瑞銀奧康納，第一個問題實際上是問艾瑞克和彼得的。

In the past, Mr. Dunn, as CEO has wanted to keep a lot of cash on the balance sheet.

過去，身為執行長的鄧恩先生希望在資產負債表上保留大量現金。

Eric, could you talk about what your philosophy is for what the right amount of cash on the balance sheet is, and then if it is going to change from Mr. Dunn's, what the priority and uses for that cash would be?

艾瑞克（Eric），您能否談談您對於資產負債表上的適當現金數量的理念是什麼？如果鄧恩先生的理念有所改變，那麼這些現金的優先級和用途是什麼？

And then if I could sneak in a second one since the equity questions have outnumbered the debt by 10 to 1, with the inventory response, with the normal seasonality in the fourth quarter, and the Nikon payment, do you see being cash-flow positive in the fourth quarter as well, free cash-flow?

然後，如果我可以偷偷地講第二個問題，因為股權問題與債務的比例為 10 比 1，加上庫存反應、第四季度的正常季節性以及尼康付款，您認為現金流量是正值嗎？第四季也是如此，自由現金流？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I would have hoped that you would have given me my 90 days before I could answer that question, but I can try.

好吧，我本來希望你能給我 90 天的時間，然後我才能回答這個問題，但我可以嘗試一下。

Yes, having too much cash is not healthy if you can't find a way to use it, so clearly, here, one of the roles of the management team is to identify the right areas of growth.

是的，如果你找不到使用現金的方法，擁有太多現金是不健康的，所以很明顯，管理團隊的角色之一就是確定正確的成長領域。

That doesn't mean merger and acquisitions, which may not be the appropriate tool.

這並不意味著併購，這可能不是合適的工具。

That can be organic growth which requires [internal] capital.

這可能是需要[內部]資本的有機成長。

So clearly at this moment, there is going to be to focus.

很明顯，此時此刻，我們需要集中註意力。

One is to continue accumulating cash by a superior execution, and I think the team has been extremely successful, that you guys have underlined for the past two to three years, and I intend to hopefully add to this through my experience from the champion in the category, at Dell Computers, as you know.

一是透過卓越的執行力繼續累積現金，我認為團隊非常成功，你們在過去兩到三年裡都強調了這一點，我希望透過我在冠軍賽中的經驗來補充這一點。如你所知，在戴爾計算機上。

Please do not get free to go to a negative cash cycle as I have been at least in the first 90 days.

請不要隨意進入負現金週期，就像我至少在前 90 天經歷過的那樣。

So clearly we are going to accumulate more cash and in the meantime, we are giving ourselves at least 90 days, 100 days, to come up with potential areas of interest of how to use the cash, and by then I will give the question back to Peter, if we don't use the cash effectively, immediately, we will see what to do with it.

很明顯，我們將累積更多現金，同時，我們給自己至少 90 天、100 天的時間，來想出如何使用現金的潛在興趣領域，到那時我將回答這個問題對彼得來說，如果我們不能立即有效地使用這些現金，我們將考慮如何處理它。

There are obviously some questions with the convertible, etc, etc, but at this moment, the order of business is to try to find areas of growth which may therefore need that cash.

顯然，可轉換債券等存在一些問題，但目前的任務是嘗試找到可能需要現金的成長領域。

And perhaps I can add the following.

也許我可以添加以下內容。

The net cash balance of the Company, that is the gross cash balance subtracted by the convertible loans we have outstanding is around €0.5b.

公司的淨現金餘額（即總現金餘額減去我們未償還的可轉換貸款）約為 0.5b 歐元。

That is a position where this Company has never been, so we do have a liquidity buffer, you can say, a net cash buffer, of €500m.

這是該公司從未達到的水平，因此我們確實擁有 5 億歐元的流動性緩衝，可以說是淨現金緩衝。

Even if you would compare that to, let's say, our peers in the industry, and giving the relatively, let's say, young age that this Company is, we are not at those comparable levels yet, so I think from a financial point of view, from a, let's say, risk management point of view, €500m of net cash is nice, but I think we could safely add some before we come into a situation whereby we need to consider giving it back to shareholders or paying dividends or doing other things with it.

即使你將其與我們的行業同行進行比較，並考慮到該公司相對年輕的年齡，我們還沒有達到那些可比較的水平，所以我認為從財務角度來看，從風險管理的角度來看，5億歐元的淨現金很好，但我認為在我們需要考慮將其返還給股東或支付股息或做一些事情之前，我們可以安全地添加一些淨現金與它相關的其他東西。

So that is from a, I would say, general point of view.

我想說，這是從一般角度來看的。

With respect to your question in the fourth quarter, we do intend to be cash positive in the fourth quarter, and yes, we'll have a payment to do, that you mentioned, but we'll do that, and still with doing that, it is our intention to be still cash positive, to add cash, like we have done throughout the year.

關於您在第四季度提出的問題，我們確實打算在第四季度實現現金正數，是的，我們將需要付款，正如您所提到的，但我們會這樣做，並且仍然會這樣做，我們的目的是保持現金積極，增加現金，就像我們全年所做的那樣。

So that's my 5 cents of it.

這就是我的 5 美分。

That's more than 5 cents, Peter!

這已經超過 5 美分了，彼得！

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Prido Kodishon (ph).

下一個問題來自 Prido Kodishon (ph)。

Please state your company name, followed by your question.

請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, Prido Kodishon from Cheney Capital.

你好，來自切尼資本的 Prido Kodishon。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can hear you loud and clear, yes.

是的，我們可以清楚地聽到你的聲音。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Just related to Janardan's question, noting that your lead times have come in, in the last little while, and your order intake, I think you said, was skewed to the back-end of the quarter, and towards Memory as well.

與 Janardan 的問題相關，注意到您的交貨時間在過去一段時間裡已經到來，我想您說過，您的訂單量偏向於季度末，也偏向於內存。

Is it fair to say that that portion translates into the backlog that is shippable in the next six months, i.e. the 80% of the backlog that you'll pull in the next six months, and the portion of the backlog that you kind of put a bit of a warning on, is that those customers, the utilization rate is basically dropped?

公平地說，這部分轉化為未來六個月內可交付的積壓訂單，即您將在未來六個月內拉出的積壓訂單的 80%，以及您放置的積壓訂單的部分有一點警示，就是那些客戶，使用率基本上下降了？

I mean, I guess that would be a safe assumption.

我的意思是，我想這是一個安全的假設。

I just wanted to double-check that assumption.

我只是想仔細檢查一下這個假設。

I think you should have applied for my job.

我認為你應該申請我的工作。

But yes, the answer to both questions, you are spot-on.

但是，是的，這兩個問題的答案都是正確的。

The orders we'll take this quarter, which I suspect will be skewed towards November/December, will be 80%-ish deliverable in the first six months of next year.

我們本季接受的訂單（我懷疑將偏向 11 月/12 月）將在明年前 6 個月交付 80% 左右。

Some will extend into the third quarter, but most of them into the second, I think the second and third quarter, actually, to answer your question precisely there.

有些會延續到第三季度，但大多數會延續到第二季​​度，我認為實際上是第二和第三季度，以便準確地回答你的問題。

And on the issue of the cancellations, what was your question there?

關於取消的問題，您的問題是什麼？

Well, just in terms of the 5 or 10 tools, I think you intimated, effectively, that's obviously, your customers' utilization, or the sector's utilization rate is declining.

嗯，就這 5 或 10 種工具而言，我認為您有效地暗示，這顯然是您的客戶利用率或該行業的利用率正在下降。

It is indeed a fact of the utilization rate.

這確實是利用率的事實。

I mean, I'll say this only once.

我的意思是，我只會說一次。

Customers are being, I think, clearly sensible and prudent and cautious and proper in this time.

我認為，此時此刻，客戶顯然是明智、謹慎、謹慎和得體的。

I mean, the utilization rate is dropping off from 95% to 90%, and I mean, even those levels of utilization, frankly, were unheard of in my time in IC companies not that many years ago. 75% to 80% was normal utilization, so they are running their equipment, they're sweating their assets quite well, and they are responding very quickly to a reduction in the utilization.

我的意思是，利用率正在從 95% 下降到 90%，坦白說，即使是這樣的利用率水平，在我幾年前在 IC 公司工作的時候也是聞所未聞的。 75% 到 80% 是正常利用率，因此他們正在運行他們的設備，他們很好地利用了他們的資產，並且他們對利用率的降低做出了非常快速的反應。

That is prudent, cautious and supremely great management on their part, and the ones who have seen that dip down, you could probably translate - I have not done this - you could probably translate that directly to the ones who have, you know, decided to push out quite properly some products from this year into next year.

這對他們來說是審慎、謹慎和極其出色的管理，那些看到這種情況下降的人，你可能可以翻譯-我沒有這樣做-你可能可以直接將其翻譯給那些已經決定的人把今年到明年的一些產品推出得比較妥當。

Okay, and that would be the longer dated portion of the backlog, potentially?

好的，這可能是積壓中日期較長的部分？

You mean, have they pushed out, like, a long time?

你的意思是，他們已經退出很久了嗎？

You mean longer dated?

你的意思是日期更長？

In terms of the 20% that's not in the next six months, in terms of where you are worried about.

就未來六個月內不會出現的 20% 而言，就您所擔心的地方而言。

I'm just trying to get an idea as to the weakness, the tools that are scheduled for [inaudible].

我只是想了解一下弱點，以及計畫使用的工具[聽不清楚]。

The ones that are pushed out are actually, and I can't speak, but generally are spread across the first three quarters of next year.

被推出的其實是，我不能說，但一般都分佈在明年前三個季度。

Yes, we could even say the first two quarters, because what's in the third quarter of next year is the 20% that you're talking about, and this is largely the low lead time items, the very leading edge tools where customers are placing their orders, taking into account, let's say, a longer order lead time.

是的，我們甚至可以說前兩個季度，因為明年第三季度就是你所說的 20%，這主要是交貨時間短的項目，客戶放置的非常前沿的工具他們的訂單，考慮到更長的訂單交貨時間。

So it is those tools that you could say are the safest, because those are the really leading edge tools that they need.

因此，您可以說這些工具是最安全的，因為這些工具是他們真正需要的前沿工具。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thank you very much, and best wishes for the future, Doug.

好的，非常感謝你，並祝你未來順利，道格。

Just for the sake of a meeting in the order and so on, it is, by my watch, 1.5 minutes to go.

只是為了按順序開會等等，根據我的手錶，還有1.5分鐘。

We have time for one more question, please, and then we have to call it short.

我們還有時間再問一個問題，然後我們就不得不簡短地發言了。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

That will be a follow-up question from Mr. Jay Deahna.

這是 Jay Deahna 先生的後續問題。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

On the immersion tools, when do you start recognizing those on shipments?

在沉浸式工具中，您是什麼時候開始識別出貨中的那些工具？

Oh yes, you asked that question, Jay, yes.

哦，是的，你問了這個問題，傑伊，是的。

What we will do, as you understand, Jay, that our tools are upgradeable from dry to wet.

正如您所了解的，傑伊，我們將做什麼，我們的工具可以從乾式升級到濕式。

So that also means that they are downgradeable for wet to dry.

因此，這也意味著它們可以從濕式降級為乾式。

So what our customers are effectively buying is a production tool that is dry and the only acceptance risk that they have is the wet, you could say, optional.

因此，我們的客戶實際上購買的是乾燥的生產工具，他們唯一的驗收風險是濕的，可以說是可選的。

So what we are doing, we will defer part of the sales price, and part of the margin that has to do with the difference between the dry and wet tool, because no matter what, if a wet tool doesn't work, they have a full fledged dry tool and so there is no issue with any acceptance of the dry tool.

所以我們正在做的，我們將推遲部分銷售價格，以及與乾式和濕式工具之間的差異有關的部分利潤，因為無論如何，如果濕式工具不起作用，他們有一個成熟的干式工具，因此對於乾式工具的接受度沒有任何問題。

There only is about the specific application that has to relate to the wet upgrade.

只有與濕升級相關的特定應用程式。

Between the two, we call them damp!

兩者之間，我們稱之為潮濕！

So it effectively means part of the sales price, and part of the margin will be deferred, and for final acceptance.

因此，這實際上意味著部分銷售價格和部分保證金將被推遲，並等待最終驗收。

Is that clear, Jay?

清楚了嗎，傑伊？

How much is the immersion portion of the ASP, and after a few of those are proven to work, will the majority of the immersion shipments next year be fully recognized.

ASP中的沉浸式部分有多少，在其中一些被證明有效後，明年大部分沉浸式出貨量是否會得到充分認可。

Yes, in the course of next year, we expect to be on the learning curve so quickly that we can fully recognize it on shipment, and we have said that the difference between the dry and the wet tool is approximately 20%, so you can work from that.

是的，在明年的過程中，我們預計很快就會進入學習曲線，以便在發貨時能夠完全識別它，並且我們已經說過乾式工具和濕式工具之間的差異約為20%，因此您可以從此開始工作。

Okay, just a quick follow-up on that and then I'm completely done.

好的，只要快速跟進一下，然後我就完全完成了。

Are there any resist issues that need to be resolved before people can use these immersion tools for some sort of production like a clear film on top of the resist so the water doesn't soak into it, or something?

在人們使用這些浸入式工具進行某種生產之前，是否需要解決任何抗蝕劑問題，例如在抗蝕劑頂部形成透明薄膜，以便水不會浸入其中，或者其他什麼？

That's the reason that they're taking these tools early, and that's why I said they won't go instantly into mass production.

這就是他們儘早採用這些工具的原因，這就是為什麼我說他們不會立即投入大量生產。

They will be used for that purpose.

它們將用於此目的。

Some resists seem to work quite well without a film, others require a film.

有些抗蝕劑似乎在沒有薄膜的情況下也能很好地工作，而有些則需要薄膜。

But only in the hands of real live operators, in real life fabs with real-live circuits going through, can you find out, Jay, so that's to be resolved yet.

但只有在真實的現場操作員手中，在現實生活中的晶圓廠中，透過真實的電路，你才能找到答案，傑伊，所以這還有待解決。

I mean, our first work with them shows that some resists work quite well but our customers will have their own view of that one, so some may apply a coating on the resist to make it impervious to the water.

我的意思是，我們與他們的第一次合作表明，某些抗蝕劑效果很好，但我們的客戶對此有自己的看法，因此有些人可能會在抗蝕劑上塗上一層塗層，使其不透水。

Does that answer your question good enough for now?

目前這足以回答您的問題嗎？

I'm right here.

我在這兒。

That was great.

那很棒。

I'm just wondering if that transparent film would be put on with a CVD tool or on a [inaudible].

我只是想知道透明薄膜是否可以使用 CVD 工具或 [聽不清楚] 來放置。

Well, I guess it will be probably - I don't know.

嗯，我想可能是──我不知道。

That is a good question.

這是一個好問題。

I don't know.

我不知道。

Maybe it's [inaudible].

也許是[聽不清楚]。

I don't know, actually.

事實上我不知道。

You've caught me out there.

你在外面抓住了我。

It's a pity that my last question of my career is one I can't answer, but I guess that's how I started, so that's how I'll finish!

遺憾的是，我職業生涯的最後一個問題是我無法回答的，但我想這就是我的開始，所以這就是我的結束！

Anyway, to you guys and gals who are regular followers of ASML, keep the faith.

無論如何，對於 ASML 的忠實追隨者，請保持信念。

They're in great hands.

他們在偉大的手中。

It's going to be a good ride forward.

這將是一個很好的前進過程。

I do think we're extremely well positioned in the market, you know, you've got to be pretty pessimistic not to see a great future for ASML looking at its product range and the way it's positioned with customers and geography, and the management team, including our most recent member.

我確實認為我們在市場上處於非常有利的位置，你知道，你必須非常悲觀，看不到 ASML 的美好未來，看看它的產品系列以及它在客戶、地理位置和管理方面的定位方式團隊，包括我們最近的成員。

So it's with some pride and a tinge of sadness also that I say goodbye, perhaps, for the last time to you guys, at least on a formal call.

因此，我帶著一絲自豪和一絲悲傷，也許是最後一次向你們說再見，至少是在正式通話中。

I enjoyed the ride.

我很享受這趟旅程。

Thanks for your support.

感謝您的支持。

Those who criticized me, I'll pay you back one day, and enjoy yourselves.

那些批評我的人，總有一天我會還給你們，你們過得開心吧。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML third quarter 2004 conference call.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2004 年第三季電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。