艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2005 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the ASML second quarter 2005 conference call on July 13, 2005. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Franki D'Hoore. Go ahead please sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎參加 2005 年 7 月 13 日 ASML 2005 年第二季電話會議。 [操作員指示]。現在我想將會議交給 Franki D'Hoore 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. My name is Franki D'Hoore from ASML Investor Relations. Thank you for joining this analysts' conference call regarding our second quarter results. With us today are Eric Meurice, CEO, and Peter Wennink, CFO, to answer your questions.

謝謝。我是 ASML 投資者關係部門的 Franki D'Hoore。感謝您參加有關我們第二季業績的分析師電話會議。今天，執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長 Peter Wennink 將與我們一起回答您的問題。

Please let me remind you of the protocol of this call. The call will be one hour. We ask you to confine your questions to one until everybody has had a chance to ask their question. And in case there is time left at the end, we can do another round.

請容許我提醒您本次通話的禮儀。通話將持續一小時。我們要求您將問題限制為一個，直到每個人都有機會提出自己的問題。如果最後還有時間，我們可以再進行一輪。

Also, I must remind you that the Safe Harbor statement, as you find it on slide two of the presentation in Q2 or at the bottom of our press release, is applicable to all matters discussed during this call.

此外，我必須提醒您，安全港聲明（如您在第二季度簡報的第二張投影片或我們的新聞稿底部所見）適用於本次電話會議期間討論的所有事項。

At this point I would like to hand over to Eric for a summary of the presentation, followed by your questions. Eric, please?

現在，我想將發言時間交給 Eric，讓他總結演講內容，然後回答大家的提問。埃里克，可以嗎？

Thank you Franki. Welcome. Good morning for our U.S. participants. Good afternoon for our European participants. I do not want to take too much of the time here, as we would like to focus on question and answers. But three key messages after Q2 '05 results.

謝謝你，法蘭基。歡迎。美國與會者大家早安。歐洲參會代表下午好。我不想在這裡花太多時間，因為我們想集中討論問題和答案。但 2005 年第二季業績公佈後，我們得到了三個關鍵訊息。

The first message is one of excellent execution, as measured by the results in growth and market share, as measured by liquidity, as measured by profitability. Profitability due to the fact that we have maintained a good gross margin, in particular due to a mix of products which have triggered a significant increase in average ASP.

第一個訊息是出色的執行力，以成長和市場份額的結果來衡量，以流動性來衡量，以獲利能力來衡量。獲利能力源自於我們維持了良好的毛利率，特別是由於多種產品組合引發了平均銷售價格的大幅上漲。

So, in conclusion, we are very happy with the results themselves, in particular that they translate our robustness, our capability to make significant profit at the high end of the cycle. But also to be robust, if and when the cycle volume cycle reduces.

因此，總而言之，我們對結果本身非常滿意，特別是它們體現了我們的穩健性以及我們在周期高端獲得可觀利潤的能力。但如果循環量週期減少，也必須保持穩健。

So, again, happy. A good result. Good robustness. Comfortable as to our execution of the fundamentals of the business.

所以，再次感到高興。好結果。良好的魯棒性。對我們執行業務基本原則感到滿意。

Second message, bookings. We did guide at the beginning of the quarter, Q2, we did guide for a low bookings level. In fact, I said lower than what we have booked into Q1. We booked, in fact, 24. Very much within the range of our own expectations, very much within the range, in particular, because the different macroeconomic parameters played exactly as we had understood them to play.

第二條訊息，預訂。我們在本季初，也就是第二季度，確實針對較低的預訂水準進行了預測。事實上，我說的是低於我們第一季的預訂量。事實上，我們預訂了 24 間。完全在我們自己的預期範圍內，完全在範圍內，特別是因為不同的宏觀經濟參數完全按照我們所理解的方式發揮作用。

One is we had a significant backlog at the beginning of the quarter. It was highly normal that the low level of semiconductor sales, which has started in second quarter/third quarter of last year, that low level would, at some point, force a correction of our high backlog. That was expected.

一是本季初我們有大量積壓訂單。去年第二季/第三季開始的半導體銷售低水準是非常正常的，這種低水準在某種程度上會迫使我們對高積壓訂單進行調整。這是意料之中的事。

The second part is that we didn't expect very large projects, which customers would have planned for new fabs or new technology, as these various projects had already been executed by the foundry in the second half of 2004, by the memory customers that we have in the first half of 2005. So we didn't expect that further large-scale projects would be negotiated so early in the game after those two sets of customers had built up significant capacity.

第二部分是，我們並沒有期待非常大的項目，客戶會計劃新建晶圓廠或採用新技術，因為這些不同的項目在 2004 年下半年就已經由晶圓代工廠執行了，在 2005 年上半年我們的內存客戶也已經執行了。因此，我們沒想到在這兩組客戶已經累積了相當大的產能之後，還會如此早地談判進一步的大型專案。

So, again, bookings level at 24. Not a very high number but a number which corresponds to our expectations and very clearly understandable in view of the situation.

因此，預訂量再次回到 24。這個數字雖然不是很高，但符合我們的預期，而且從目前的情況來看，這是可以理解的。

Third message, bookings outlook. Again, you have seen in our release that we expect a pick up. This is the good news. We do not expect the pick up to be dramatic. This is due to the fact that the industry still has a significant overhang of capacity which has been shipped but hasn't yet been fully installed or fully utilized. And we have estimated this number to be about an increase of capacity of 10% or a bit less, at this moment, which will come on line in the next few months.

第三則訊息，預訂前景。再次，您已從我們的新聞稿中看到，我們預計會出現回升。這是個好消息。我們預計成長不會太劇烈。這是因為該行業仍有大量已發貨但尚未完全安裝或充分利用的產能過剩。目前，我們估計這一數字大約相當於產能增加 10% 或略少，並將在未來幾個月內投入使用。

This should be viewed in relation with the increase of sales of semiconductors, which we now hear from the different market analysts will be in the range of 6% to 10%. So, in other terms, the capacity overhang is there. It is slowly being reduced by this improvement of semiconductor shipments but not to a level, as you can see from the mathematics, 10% overhang, 6 to 10% semiconductor. So not dramatically enough to trigger a run for machines.

這應該與半導體銷售額的成長連結起來看待，我們現在從不同的市場分析師那裡聽說半導體銷售額的成長將在 6% 到 10% 的範圍內。因此，換句話說，產能過剩是存在的。由於半導體出貨量的增加，這一比例正在慢慢降低，但還沒有降低到一定水平，正如你從數學上看到的，10%的過剩，6%到10%的半導體。因此，這還不足以引發機器的搶購。

However, we are comfortable and confident about a pick up of orders above the number that we have achieved in Q2, in view of the fact that certain numbers of our customers who belong to the different segments of the industry - memory and foundry in particular - to start discussing, I would say, major projects for either technology or capacity. And these are within sight at this very moment and thus confirms our capability or possibility to tell you that we are planning to book ahead of the number that we did book in Q2 time.

然而，考慮到我們來自不同行業領域（特別是記憶體和代工）的一定數量的客戶開始討論技術或產能方面的重大項目，我們對訂單數量將超過第二季度的數量感到放心和有信心。目前這些都在眼前，證實了我們的能力或可能性，可以告訴您，我們計劃提前預訂，數量將超過第二季的預訂數量。

So, of course, in summary, a very optimistic view of our capability to manage the business, our execution, our strength in general as a company. And our strengths in general, as a company that can deliver profit in the different phases of the cycle.

所以，總而言之，我們對我們管理業務的能力、我們的執行力以及我們作為一家公司的整體實力持非常樂觀的看法。整體而言，我們的優勢在於我們是一家能夠在周期的不同階段獲利的公司。

And a second point, a pick up. Yes, not dramatic, but reasonably certain and confirmed. Which again confirms our views that we will ship enough in 2005 to meet our profitability targets.

第二點，拾取。是的，雖然不引人注目，但相當確定和證實。這再次證實了我們的觀點，即2005年我們的出貨量將足夠多，以滿足我們的獲利目標。

So on this, I would leave it to questions and answers.

因此，關於這一點，我將把它留給問答。

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. The first question is from Mr. Nav Sheera, Citigroup. Go ahead please sir.

[操作員指示]。第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Nav Sheera 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon gents. Eric, I just wanted to ask you about an update to your turns business potential, especially as you have been concentrating on reducing lead times since you have been CEO. I just wanted to see what the potential upside is, if you had to receive -- or if you did receive a lot of turns business, what number of orders you could be able to book and ship within the quarter. Thank you.

非常感謝。先生們，下午好。艾瑞克，我只是想問你有關你的業務潛力的最新情況，特別是自從你擔任執行長以來，你一直致力於縮短交貨時間。我只是想看看潛在的好處是什麼，如果你必須接收 - 或者如果你確實收到了很多業務，那麼你可以在本季度內預訂和發貨多少個訂單。謝謝。

Yes. Excellent question. A short-term and a long-term view. Long term, we are still in the process of getting to, growing our cycle times and lead times by a factor of 30% or more. And we expect to have this capability efficiently in place by the beginning of 2006, and this is what we said. And this has been our focus here, to build a structure that allows us to do this in an efficient fashion.

是的。非常好的問題。短期和長期觀點。從長遠來看，我們仍處於將週期時間和交貨時間延長 30% 或更多的過程中。我們期望在 2006 年初之前有效地實現這項能力，這就是我們所說的。我們的重點是建立一個能夠讓我們以有效率的方式完成這項工作的架構。

Short term, which is what do we do in the second half, we are, I think, a mixture of this improvement already, of cycle times. We have improved by a single factor of 10 to 15% already, which is visible and significant. But in addition, we do have enough visibility with some customers so that we have certain numbers of buffer stock of components, which allows us to turn certain numbers of machines extremely quickly.

短期內，也就是我們在下半年要做的事情，我認為我們已經是這種改善和週期時間的混合體了。我們已經提高了 10% 到 15%，這是顯而易見且意義重大的。但除此之外，我們確實對一些客戶有足夠的了解，因此我們擁有一定數量的零件緩衝庫存，這使我們能夠非常快速地生產一定數量的機器。

And to give you an example of this capability, is we did have in the second quarter certain numbers of orders, like two or three, which we got early in the quarter, in April in fact, and shipped in the June timeframe. So we do expect the possibility to move certain numbers of machines with a three-month lead time, up to a three-month lead time, of course. We prefer not to do that too much.

舉個例子來說明這種能力，我們在第二季度確實有一定數量的訂單，例如兩三個，這些訂單是我們在本季度初，實際上是在四月份獲得的，並在六月份發貨。因此，我們確實希望能夠在三個月的交貨時間內（當然最多三個月的交貨時間內）轉移一定數量的機器。我們不想做太多這樣的事。

That's great. Thanks very much.

那太棒了。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自高盛的馬修‧格爾 (Matthew Gehl)。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon. A question related to the mid-critical air tools that I think the plan currently is to roll out in Q4 of '05. What are you expecting as far as an impact to your margins, given historically introductions of new tools, at least in the first one, two, maybe three quarters, has actually had a negative impact on margins? Is there a risk with this introduction of the tool or is it going to be such a slow ramp we're not going to see it in the overall P&L?

午安.一個與​​中期關鍵氣動工具有關的問題，我認為目前的計劃是在 2005 年第四季推出。考慮到歷史上新工具的推出，至少在第一個、第二個或三個季度，實際上對利潤率產生了負面影響，您預計這會對您們的利潤率產生什麼影響？引入該工具是否有風險？或者它的發展會非常緩慢，以至於我們不會在整體損益表中看到它？

You are correct in saying that we will, at the beginning, not have achieved all our cost reduction and therefore there is going to be a bit of a margin reduction on those tools. But you are also correct in saying that we, somewhat unfortunately, will not have a significant number that will change the picture in the first six months or so of activity.

您說得對，一開始我們並沒有實現所有成本削減，因此這些工具的利潤率將會降低。但您說得也對，有些遺憾的是，在活動的前六個月左右，我們不會有顯著的數字來改變這種狀況。

Just to clarify, that's a shipment -- this is for shipmenting in Q4 or will you start taking the orders in Q4 for shipment in '06?

需要澄清的是，這是一批貨物——將在第四季度發貨，還是您會在第四季度開始接受訂單並在 2006 年發貨？

Shipment in Q4.

第四季出貨。

So it's going to be a gradual ramp, Matt.

所以這將是一個逐漸上升的過程，馬特。

Okay. So those orders are in the backlog? There's some orders in the backlog already?

好的。那麼這些訂單都積壓了呢？已經有一些積壓訂單了嗎？

Correct. And a significant amount of those units being negotiated, as we speak, for Q1 and Q2 of 2006.

正確的。正如我們所說，其中很大一部分正在為 2006 年第一季和第二季進行談判。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

The next question is from Nicolas Gaudois of Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Hi there. A question for Eric. You announced today that you are basically putting on the back burner plans for the FPD lithography market. Are you basically completely turning the page there or just a question of assessing interest of customers going forward?

是的。你好呀。問 Eric 一個問題。您今天宣布，基本上將 FPD 光刻市場計劃擱置。您基本上已經完全翻開了新的一頁，還是只是評估了客戶未來的興趣？

And by implication, what are the other strategic options you are considering to support growth going forward, either internally or externally?

那麼，您正在考慮哪些其他策略選擇來支援未來的內部或外部成長？

Yes, very good question Nicolas. No, we -- definitely we're not turning the page. Our mousetrap, as we used to call it, has been accepted by the customers and confirmed as a good one. The market, however, does not, I would say, support at this moment the numbers of units that we would want to have to make it an obvious choice. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the volume curve, while continuing to do the basic work in R&D that we have been doing so far in the past two years or so, to hone the key technologies which, by the way, will lock that mousetrap for us to use at the right time.

是的，尼古拉斯，你問得非常好。不，我們——我們絕對不會翻過這一頁。我們的捕鼠器（我們以前這樣稱呼它）已被客戶接受並被證實為優質產品。然而，我想說，目前市場並不支持我們想要的單位數量，因此這並非一個顯而易見的選擇。因此，我們將繼續監測產量曲線，同時繼續進行過去兩年左右一直在進行的研發基礎工作，以磨練關鍵技術，順便說一句，這些技術將鎖定捕鼠器，以便我們在適當的時候使用。

One of the facets of our decision, in addition to the risk level volume to investment, was alternatives. And clearly, we are using some of the R&D funds, which we had earmarked for possibly entry in the flat panel market, to do some other things. And these are other things which we approve in the next two to three years for the Company.

除了投資風險等級之外，我們做出決定的考慮因素之一是替代方案。顯然，我們正在使用一些為進入平板市場而預留的研發資金來做一些其他的事情。這些是我們在未來兩到三年內批准的公司的其他事項。

At this moment, we do not want to divulge what those different projects are. They are the normal projects that you keep in your basket for competitive reasons until you're near enough to introducing them.

目前，我們不想透露這些不同的項目是什麼。它們是出於競爭原因而保留在籃子中的正常項目，直到您足夠接近推出它們為止。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mark Power, Redburn Partners. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 Redburn Partners 的 Mark Power。先生，請繼續。

Hi guys. Could you give us some insight into your expectations for the immersion litho market next year? And maybe could you hazard a guess at how many units are likely to be shipped to the overall market and your market share within that portion of the market? Thanks.

嗨，大家好。您能否向我們介紹一下對明年浸沒式光刻市場的預期？您能否猜測一下，可能會向整個市場運送多少台產品，以及您在該部分市場中的市場份額？謝謝。

So the negative news first. Immersion yet has to be proven in production. And this is what you hear from all the specialists who are suffering to confirm that every little items of the process issues are going to be resolved. So clearly, nobody expects volume production to be started before second half of 2006. And in between now and second half of 2006, certain numbers of customers, and significant numbers, are buying tools to basically qualify their own processes.

首先是負面新聞。沉浸感仍需在生產中得到驗證。這是您從所有專家那裡聽到的，他們正在努力確認流程問題的每個小細節都將得到解決。因此顯然沒有人期望在 2006 年下半年之前開始大量生產。從現在到 2006 年下半年，一定數量的客戶，特別是相當數量的客戶，正在購買工具，以便基本驗證他們自己的流程。

How many do we expect in 2006? In fact, you may have heard about our introduction of the 1700i, which is the first 1.25 NA machine which allows 45 nano -- sorry, 1.2, I was more optimistic. So 1.2, that allows 45 nanometer processes. And the enthusiasm is high at this moment and this is part of the projects that I was talking about, which will firm up our bookings for Q3.

2006 年我們預計會有多少人？事實上，您可能聽說過我們推出的 1700i，它是第一台允許 45 奈米的 1.25 NA 機器——抱歉，是 1.2，我比較樂觀。因此 1.2 允許 45 奈米製程。目前大家的熱情很高，這也是我之前談到的項目的一部分，這將鞏固我們第三季的預訂量。

How does that translate competitively? A bit early to say. But I would guess that if you put a number of about 20 to 25 immersion tools next year, you should be in a realistic type of environment, I will not say conservative, realistic level. We could even go higher than that, if you look at our own track record of introducing new technology. We just introduced the 0.93 NA technology, the 1400, the 65 nano. And we shipped 20 new machines in the first six months. So clearly saying that we are shipping 25 units in one year of the 45 nanometer node is not a ridiculous assumption at all.

這在競爭上意味著什麼？現在說還早了一點。但我猜測，如果你明年投入大約 20 到 25 個沉浸式工具，你應該處於一個現實的環境中，我不會說保守，而是現實的水平。如果你看看我們引進新技術的記錄，我們甚至可以做得更好。我們剛剛推出了 0.93 NA 技術、1400 和 65 奈米。我們在前六個月就運送了 20 台新機器。因此，明確地說，我們一年內將出貨 25 台 45 奈米節點的產品，這根本不是一個荒謬的假設。

And that's just for ASML specifically? What do you think the overall market size might be?

這僅針對 ASML 嗎？您認為整體市場規模可能是多少？

25. No, no. I don't know. We do expect that our leadership, and the fact that we are now at our fourth generation of immersion technology, gives us a significant leadership. The estimate that we gave you, the 25 machines, is based on customers we have, with whom we are working. Honestly, I do not know and want to assess the possibility with customers we still don't have.

25.不，不。我不知道。我們確實期望我們的領導地位以及我們目前處於第四代沉浸式技術的事實能夠為我們帶來重要的領導力。我們給您的估計數字是 25 台機器，是基於我們現有的、正在合作的客戶的數量。老實說，我不知道，並且想評估我們還沒有的客戶的可能性。

That's helpful. Thanks.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Orji, JP Morgan. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的奧吉先生。先生，請繼續。

Just a couple of questions. First please, can you just give us some insight as to what you're seeing with your memory customers, because your dependence, your backlog constitution from memory has gone down significantly between end of Q1 and end of Q2? What are you seeing by way of order trends with your memory department?

僅有幾個問題。首先，您能否向我們介紹一下您對記憶體客戶的看法，因為在第一季末和第二季末之間，您對記憶體的依賴程度、積壓訂單組成已經顯著下降？您從記憶體部門的訂單趨勢看出了什麼？

That's an excellent question. Clearly, as you know, we are a key supplier to the leaders in the memory segment. Most of them had front loaded their investments in the first half of 2005 or even before, in Q4 of 2004. So clearly the overhang, as you may call it, is significant in the memory environment, which is why we said we would not book too much of that in Q2.

這是一個很好的問題。顯然，正如您所知，我們是記憶體領域領導者的關鍵供應商。他們中的大多數在 2005 年上半年甚至更早（2004 年第四季）就已開始進行前期投資。因此，很明顯，在記憶體環境中，這種懸垂現象非常重要，這就是為什麼我們說我們不會在第二季預訂太多記憶體。

Now, clearly, multiple memory companies are in the planning phase of their 45 nanometer nodes, which, as you can imagine from the timing of our 1700 product, will happen in the Q2 niche timeframe of '06, which then forces them also to take some decisions as to what to do in Q1 in terms of 65 nanometers of capacity orders.

現在，顯然有多家記憶體公司正處於 45 奈米節點的規劃階段，正如您可以從我們的 1700 個產品的時間安排中想像的那樣，這將發生在 2006 年第二季度的利基時間範圍內，這迫使他們也做出一些決定，就 65 奈米產能訂單而言，在第一季度該做什麼。

So in other terms, the capacity orders and the technology orders of the key memory people are being discussed at this very moment. And I confirm that the ramp up is now planned for Q1 for some additional capacity orders, and then Q2 and Q3 of '06 for the 45 nanometer nodes.

換句話說，目前正在討論關鍵記憶體的容量訂單和技術訂單。我確認目前計劃在第一季增加一些額外產能訂單，然後在 2006 年第二季和第三季增加 45 奈米節點的產能。

That's clear. One more question --

這很清楚。還有一個問題——

Could you please do the other questions at the second round, please?

您能做一下第二輪的其他題目嗎？

Alright. Thank you.

好吧。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Shekhar Pramanick, Moors & Cabot. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 Moors & Cabot 的 Shekhar Pramanick 先生。先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi. Good afternoon. Two-part question. What we are hearing is that there is a definite additional engagement with one of the largest foundries. Is that -- are you factoring that in, into your Q3 order guidance? Or is that, at this stage, not factored in? And if there is an engagement, would that mean maybe there's a shipment even possible in the absolute tail end of the Q4?

是的，你好。午安.問題分為兩部分。我們聽到的是，該公司與最大的鑄造廠有明確的額外合作。您是否已將其納入第三季訂單預測？或者說，目前這個階段還沒考慮到這一點？如果有約定，這是否意味著在第四季末甚至有可能出貨？

Also, the memory comment you just made, you were talking about the Korean fab called line 15, which will be starting a delivery early Q1, starting with. Am I accurate on these assessments, without naming company names possibly?

另外，您剛才提到的韓國晶圓廠 15 號線將於第一季初開始交付。我不點名透露公司名稱，這些評估準確嗎？

I'm going to try to answer you specifically without being specific. Foundry business, clearly utilization curves are now picking up seriously in some areas of the activities, in particular in the new technology, the new nodes. And therefore, we are starting to have activities now with the foundry players. And I would say it is spread, it is spread. Which leads me to tell you that we are going to have some orders in Q3 for deliveries potentially in Q4, but also in '06.

我將嘗試具體地回答您，但不要太具體。就代工業務而言，顯然利用率曲線在某些活動領域正在大幅上升，特別是在新技術、新節點方面。因此，我們現在開始與代工廠商進行活動。我想說它已經傳播開來，已經傳播開來。這讓我想告訴您，我們將在第三季收到一些訂單，可能在第四季交貨，但也可能會在 2006 年交貨。

Regarding the memory questions you have, I think I answered, which is yes, there was significant over -- sorry, including of our shipments in Q1, Q2 in the different lines you were talking about. But I confirm again that this is now being put into production, ramped, and that we are now planning for the deliveries of Q1 and Q2 '06 with the different guys.

關於您提到的記憶問題，我想我已經回答過了，是的，有顯著的超出 - 抱歉，包括您談到的第一季度、第二季度不同產品線的出貨量。但我再次確認，該產品現已投入生產，正在加大生產力度，我們正與不同的人員一起計劃 2006 年第一季和第二季的交付。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

The next question is from Ben Pang, Prudential. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自保誠的 Ben Pang。先生，請繼續。

Yes. I was wondering, you mentioned the 10% capacity addition that you expect the industry still needs to install the tools that you've shipped. How does that compare to the first quarter number? Thank you.

是的。我想知道，您提到了增加 10% 的產能，您預計該行業仍然需要安裝您已發貨的工具。這與第一季的數字相比如何？謝謝。

It's about the same. You've seen our shipment rate has been about the same numbers of units, 50 to 60. So in our little model that created the same trend. We also try to involve our competitors, Nikon and Canon. So in our model, the calculation of the 10% overhang is somehow a calculation of the industry.

差不多。你已經看到我們的出貨率大約是相同的單位數量，50到60。所以在我們的小模型中也產生了同樣的趨勢。我們也試圖讓我們的競爭對手尼康和佳能參與其中。因此，在我們的模型中，10% 的過剩計算在某種程度上是對產業的計算。

Obviously, it is not 100% precise. It's in orders of magnitude, which is why you can't even judge whether it's 8 or 12. But there is nothing significantly different between Q1 and Q2.

顯然，它並不是100%精確的。它是數量級的，這就是為什麼你甚至無法判斷它是 8 還是 12。但Q1和Q2之間並無明顯差異。

For our rolling build up of capacity, I understand that our competitors may not have shipped as much as we have. So clearly we have been a bit, I would say, taken a bit more share than usual. But then the semiconductor industry has now shown some pick-up of their own silicone production and orders. And that is now eating into the 10% overhang. So I would say I think we have reduced it, but I didn't -- we didn't want to quantify it.

對於我們不斷擴大的產能，我明白我們的競爭對手可能沒有像我們一樣出貨那麼多。所以很明顯，我想說，我們比平常佔有了更多份額。但目前半導體產業的矽膠產量和訂單已回升。而這正在蠶食 10% 的溢價。所以我想說我們已經減少了它，但我沒有——我們不想量化它。

We reduced the overhang from, say, 10-ish to 10 minus-ish. Sorry to be not able to be more precise.

我們將懸垂部分從大約 10 減少到了大約 10 減。抱歉，無法更精確地說明。

Thank you Ben.

謝謝你，本。

The next question is from Ulrich Pelzer, Lehman Brothers. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的 Ulrich Pelzer。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Hi there, gents. Just looking for a bit of clarification as to when you plan to be introducing and then shipping the XT body on your i-line and then on your KrF product range. If you could shed a bit of light on that, that would be great.

是的。嗨，先生們。只是想稍微澄清一下，您計劃何時在 i-line 和 KrF 產品系列中推出並運送 XT 機身。如果您能對此作出一些解釋，那就太好了。

Yes, Q4.

是的，Q4。

And that's for both i-line and KrF?

這適用於 i-line 和 KrF 嗎？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

Okay. That's great. Thank you.

好的。那太棒了。謝謝。

The next question is from Kirsten Parker, Morgan Stanley. Go ahead please ma'am.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kirsten Parker。請繼續，女士。

Hi, Eric and Peter. A question, just going back to the first question on buffer stocks. Do you think that you've got sufficient buffer stocks in place such that unit shipments in Q4 could be greater than what they are likely to be in Q3?

嗨，艾瑞克和彼得。一個問題，回到關於緩衝庫存的第一個問題。您是否認為您已準備好足夠的緩衝庫存，以便第四季度的單位出貨量可能高於第三季？

Because that question is probably going to be asked 100 times, I am going to try to be as quantitative as we can be.

因為這個問題可能會被問到 100 次，所以我將嘗試盡可能量化地回答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have shipped, say, 110 units so far in the year. Okay? We said we have a backlog of 80 units, in which 75% are shippable this year, which says 60 units. So we have now in the bank 170 units. Okay?

今年到目前為止，我們已經出貨了 110 台。好的？我們說我們有 80 個單位的積壓訂單，其中 75％ 可以在今年發貨，也就是 60 個單位。所以我們現在在銀行有 170 個單位。好的？

We believe, in the normal environment, it would be not abnormal to book between, say, 10 and 20 units of used machines as well as new machines within a period of six months and still be able to manage it with the type of buffer stock that we are planning. As you know, we are having those discussions with customers.

我們認為，在正常環境下，在六個月內預訂 10 到 20 台二手機器和新機器並不異常，而且我們仍然能夠透過我們計劃的緩衝庫存類型進行管理。如您所知，我們正在與客戶進行這些討論。

Some of those 10 to 20 units are, of course, things which we touched, so we know that it's a huge buffer stock to have. So you then, you could imagine a range of 180 units to 190 units as an acceptable view of life at this moment. We will keep a bit of upside potential to that.

當然，這 10 到 20 個單位中有一些是我們接觸過的東西，所以我們知道這是一個巨大的緩衝庫存。那麼，你可以想像 180 個單位到 190 個單位的範圍是目前可接受的生活觀。我們將保留一點上行潛力。

Okay. That's very clear. Thanks very much.

好的。這非常清楚。非常感謝。

Didier Scemama, ABN Amro. Go ahead please sir.

荷蘭銀行的 Didier Scemama。先生，請繼續。

Right. Good afternoon guys. Just coming back to slide 17, to your assessment of capacity overhang of 10%. My question is simple. Why would you -- what, in your view, would be the exit capacity utilization at the end of 2005? And, if my calculation is right and we get below 80%, can you explain to me what you are going to do, any turns business, or any significant turns business in Q4?

正確的。大家下午好。回到投影片 17，您對 10% 的產能過剩進行評估。我的問題很簡單。為什麼你會——你認為 2005 年底的退出產能利用率是多少？而且，如果我的計算正確且低於 80%，您能否向我解釋您將要做什麼，任何轉變業務，或第四季度的任何重大轉變業務？

This is very difficult to answer. It can only be directional. We do expect the semiconductor growth to be at the level of this overhang and to start eating into it, as we said, as of now, basically. So the utilization is going to pop up a bit in the Q3, Q4 timeframe.

這個問題很難回答。它只能是定向的。我們確實預計半導體增長將達到這一過剩水平，並開始蠶食這一過剩水平，正如我們所說的那樣，基本上就目前而言。因此，在第三季和第四季，利用率將會略有上升。

Now, each of the customers has its own trigger point about what is a decision-making point, where you have to get worried and start putting some orders. And this is extremely difficult to call. It will depend, in fact, on their own vision of 2006, whether they have hit the wrong -- they want to accelerate something.

現在，每個客戶都有自己的觸發點，即決策點，你必須擔心並開始下訂單。而這非常難以判斷。事實上，這將取決於他們對 2006 年的展望，他們是否做出了錯誤的判斷——他們想要加速某件事。

So difficult to tell you, therefore, the level of excitement and fear that will be created in Q4, where people will say, "Oh God, I'm reaching the trigger point and I'm optimistic".

因此，很難告訴你第四季將會產生何種程度的興奮和恐懼，人們會說，「哦，天哪，我達到了觸發點，我很樂觀」。

I give you an example. Today, we have one or two customers who have reached the trigger point but have asked us for mercy, that is for a bit more time, because they wanted to be sure that the trigger point, whether it is their own orders, were solid. Not only limited to one or two of their own customers. So they wanted to know if the semiconductor growth itself was sustainable.

我給你舉個例子。今天，有一兩個客戶已經達到了觸發點，但他們請求我們寬恕，再多給一點時間，因為他們想確保觸發點（無論是他們自己的訂單）是可靠的。而不僅限於自己的一兩個客戶。因此他們想知道半導體成長本身是否可持續。

So, in other terms, it's very, very difficult to call your question so early in the game. But Peter?

所以，換句話說，在遊戲初期提出問題是非常非常困難的。但是彼得？

Yes. I think, Didier, if you say, therefore, we don't have a look into your model that brings you to 80%. But generally, you could say that when customers are at 80% that's not a trigger point, where they come back for capacity ordering. Generally, what we have seen in the past cycle, past two cycles, that is that needs to be higher than that number.

是的。因此，我認為，迪迪埃，如果你這麼說的話，我們就不會去研究你的模型，因為它會讓你達到 80%。但一般來說，你可以說，當客戶達到 80% 時，這並不是一個觸發點，他們不會再回來進行容量訂購。一般來說，我們在上一個週期、過去兩個週期中看到的情況是，這個數字需要高於這個數字。

So whether your number of 80% is correct, I cannot judge from this side. It's basically your own responsibility. But 80% in that particular case would not be sufficient to just call a general return to an upturn for the whole industry.

所以你說的80%這個數字是否正確，從這個角度來說，我無法判斷。這基本上是你自己的責任。但在那種特殊情況下，80% 還不足以稱整個產業普遍恢復好轉。

But if I understand, your own calculation is that we will be above 85%, since you expect those orders to come in.

但如果我理解正確的話，您自己的計算是我們的完成率將超過 85%，因為您預計這些訂單會進來。

When we wanted to say - and we want to stay there because we are not as good analysts of the total market than you are. We are lumpy people with each customer being one special microeconomic discussion. So we know exactly which customers are hitting those 85% or 75% or 95%, whatever. But we all know that they have a decision-making process on each of them, which is why I don't really want to give you any hint that something is happening, that the curve is moving, etc.

當我們想說 - 我們想留在那裡，因為我們對整個市場的分析能力不如你。我們是一群笨拙的人，每個客戶都是一個特別的微觀經濟討論。因此我們確切地知道哪些客戶達到了 85% 或 75% 或 95% 等等。但我們都知道，他們每個人都有自己的決策過程，這就是為什麼我真的不想給你任何暗示，表明某事正在發生，曲線正在移動，等等。

It is important here that you take the message of uncertainty still from this meeting. I know you always take it from us. We don't want to call too far away when we don't -- we know that there are much more parameters than just an average market situation.

重要的是，你們仍然能從這次會議中領悟到不確定性的信息。我知道你總是從我們身上奪走它。當我們不需要時，我們不想打電話太遠——我們知道除了平均市場情況之外還有更多的參數。

And on top of that, you have to remember the big part of our business is memory business, which is not that susceptible to the utilization that you are talking about. It's much more susceptible to a shrink roadmap of that particular customer. And that's a big part of our business too.

除此之外，你必須記住，我們業務的很大一部分是記憶體業務，它並不像你所說的那樣容易受到利用率的影響。它更容易受到特定客戶縮小路線圖的影響。這也是我們業務的重要組成部分。

So the same goes for IDM customers, who have to do advanced process development, and some of them who have to go to 700 nanometer production. So it's not all utilization driven. It's particularly true for foundries but not always true for the other sides.

對於 IDM 客戶來說也是如此，他們必須進行先進的製程開發，其中一些客戶必須進行 700 奈米生產。所以這並非全是由利用率驅動的。對於代工廠來說尤其如此，但對於其他方面來說並不總是如此。

So, if I summarize, basically '05 we had a very specifically driven CapEx by big guys that had specific programs in mind. And you think that '06 could be very similar, at least for you guys.

所以，如果我總結一下，基本上 2005 年我們有一個非常具體的資本支出，由大公司驅動，他們心中有特定的計畫。你認為 2006 年的情況可能非常相似，至少對您來說是如此。

And this is now the start of the planning period to do exactly the same, yes. But timing this move of orders is a bit complicated. What I can also say, which I think is significant, is as much as we probably lumped a lot of orders together in 2004 because of tons of reasons. Everybody jumped on the same quarters to book. As much as we think that may not happen this time, that the ramp in 2006 will be, how do you call this, more spread.

是的，現在正是規劃期的開始，要做同樣的事情。但確定這項訂單的時機有點複雜。我還可以說的是，我認為很重要的一點是，由於多種原因，我們在 2004 年可能將很多訂單集中在一起。每個人都跳到同一個地方預訂。儘管我們認為這次可能不會發生這種情況，但 2006 年的成長將會更加廣泛。

We have a certain number of reasons to believe that. So, in other terms, we don't expect a big booking wave. We are expecting a continuous improvement wave, which is why we are comfortable with the fact that we said we were going to book more. But we are not saying it's a dramatic move up.

我們有一定的理由相信這一點。因此，換句話說，我們預計不會出現大規模的預訂潮。我們期待著持續的改進浪潮，這就是為什麼我們對我們說要預訂更多訂單感到滿意。但我們並不是說這是一個巨大的進步。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Jay Deahna, JP Morgan. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑伊·迪阿納 (Jay Deahna)。請繼續。

Hi guys. Did you get any -- and by the way, the comment that we don't see a dramatic cycle is the same comment at the beginning of every cycle, so let's just see how that plays out. But anyway, did you receive any orders in the second quarter from new customers? And can you give us a sense as to what your momentum is in Japan? Thank you.

嗨，大家好。您是否得到了任何東西——順便說一句，我們沒有看到戲劇性週期的評論與每個週期開始時的評論相同，所以讓我們看看結果如何。但無論如何，您在第二季有收到新客戶的訂單嗎？您能否向我們介紹一下您在日本的發展動能如何？謝謝。

Good question. And I agree, Jay, unfortunately we will be wrong, but this time it's for the good.

好問題。傑伊，我同意這一點，不幸的是，我們有時會犯錯，但這次是好的。

Okay. Yes, we did receive orders from new customers. Yes, we already shipped to new customers, even in the second quarter. The two customers in question are ProMOS and Winbond, which as you can imagine, strengthened our position in the memory business.

好的。是的，我們確實收到了新客戶的訂單。是的，我們已經向新客戶發貨了，甚至在第二季。這兩個客戶是 ProMOS 和 Winbond，你可以想像，它們加強了我們在記憶體業務中的地位。

We expect this business to be continuous and we are, in fact, discussing the next follow-up orders with those two good customers. And this is, again, one part of our market share satisfaction here, where we clearly measure our progress in an area where we were not.

我們預計這項業務將會持續下去，事實上，我們正​​在與這兩位好客戶討論接下來的後續訂單。這也是我們對市場佔有率滿意度的一部分，透過它我們可以清楚地衡量我們在尚未取得進展的領域中取得的進展。

Did you actually get those orders before the second quarter and ship them in the second quarter?

您是否真的在第二季度之前收到了這些訂單並在第二季度發貨了？

No. We -- I think we took them, those customers, in April. And we did ship one unit, I think one -- sorry, no, two of the orders but at least one to one and then the others [is not issued].

不。我想我們在四月接待了這些顧客。我們確實發運了一個單位，我想是一個——抱歉，不是，是兩個訂單，但至少是一對一，然後其他的[沒有發出]。

Okay.

好的。

The Japanese question, continuous progress with evaluation. As you know, our entry in Japan, well, first of all, we are doing good business with the current four customers that we have. And we are continuing the ramp of, I would say, R&D process development with Matsushita.

日語問題，不斷進展與評估。如您所知，我們進入日本市場後，首先，我們與現有的四家客戶開展了良好的業務往來。我想說的是，我們正在與松下繼續推動研發流程的開發。

For the new customers, we are still in an evaluation mode. And therefore, we do not expect any bookings of significant level for production, I would say, before 2006. This would be production ramp in 2006 is our [indiscernible] plan to be production going in 2005.

對於新客戶，我們仍處於評估模式。因此，我想說，我們預計在 2006 年之前不會有任何大規模的生產訂單。這將是 2006 年的生產提升，我們的 [音訊不清晰] 計劃是在 2005 年開始生產。

Were there any progress? Thank you, yes. We do receive significant interest, of course, on immersion. As you know, we think that we have leadership. We know that Nikon is doing a good job in trying to develop their own architecture. We still believe that our architecture has more experience to it and that it is designed more conservatively in terms of its capability for performance and cost effectiveness.

有什麼進展嗎？謝謝，是的。當然，我們確實對沉浸式體驗產生了濃厚的興趣。如你所知，我們認為我們擁有領導力。我們知道尼康在開發自己的架構方面做得很好。我們仍然相信，我們的架構擁有更多的經驗，並且在性能和成本效益方面設計得更加保守。

So, we feel comfortable with this. And it seems to be confirmed again by the fact that our additional non-public Japanese customers who are evaluating those products are still doing so, and asking us or discussing the next generation shipment for R&D purpose.

因此，我們對此感到滿意。而事實似乎再次證實了這一點：我們的其他非公開日本客戶正在評估這些產品，他們仍在這樣做，並向我們詢問或討論用於研發目的的下一代產品。

Thank you Eric.

謝謝你，埃里克。

We have a question from Mr. [Samuel Daptadar] with Bramwell Capital Management. Go ahead please sir.

我們收到了來自 Bramwell Capital Management 的 Samuel Daptadar 先生的一個問題。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Is it possible you can just give us a sense about what customers are looking to buy in terms of foundries or memories or IDMs going into the next quarter and probably beyond that, what sense do you have in total for the quarter of this year, maybe of '06?

是的。您能否向我們介紹一下，在下一季以及之後，客戶在代工廠、記憶體或 IDM 方面希望購買什麼？您對今年第一季度，或者可能是 2006 年第一季的整體情況有何看法？

Excuse me, I didn't catch your question. Could you please repeat?

對不起，我沒聽清楚你的問題。您能再說一次嗎？

Is it possible to give us a sense about what type of customers are looking to buy more products in terms of foundries or IDMs or memory makers into '03 -- into the third quarter of this year and into the fourth quarter of this year? And what level of confidence do you have going into 2006?

您能否讓我們了解一下，在 2003 年、今年第三季和第四季度，哪些類型的客戶（例如代工廠、IDM 或記憶體製造商）希望購買更多產品？您對 2006 年有何信心？

I think you are asking a question on the end customer of our own customer. So of course we are not extremely well positioned. We also read the Wall Street Journal and that tells us that the mobility is a big thing, phone; mobile phone is driving some orders.

我認為您問的是有關我們自己客戶的最終客戶的問題。因此，我們當然還沒有達到最佳狀態。我們也閱讀了《華爾街日報》，它告訴我們行動性是一件大事，電話；手機正在推動一些訂單。

It is true that we see -- we confirm the trend when we basically speak with our own customers, and we hear some big names in this business. Our customers are receiving lump orders from the Nokias and the Motorolas of the world and the Samsungs of the world, etc., etc. So we can only confirm that mobility seems to be the big driver of some of those, I would say, optimism.

確實，我們看到了——當我們與自己的客戶交談時，我們確認了這一趨勢，並且我們聽到了這個行業的一些大人物的聲音。我們的客戶正在收到來自諾基亞、摩托羅拉、三星等公司的大宗訂單。因此，我們只能確認，流動性似乎是其中一些樂觀情緒的主要驅動力。

We also have, and this is where I mention the issue of customers saying we were very happy with the orders we got, but we need to know if it's sustained or not. We have some orders from those - we should not say niche market, but the fashionable things, MP3 players and PlayStations and stuff, which we hear on a regular basis orders the big order. Okay? But these are the lumpy ones.

我們也有，這就是我提到的客戶問題，他們說我們對收到的訂單非常滿意，但我們需要知道這種狀況是否能持續下去。我們有一些來自這些市場的訂單——我們不應該說是利基市場，而是時尚產品，MP3 播放器和 PlayStation 等，我們經常聽說這些產品的訂單量很大。好的？但這些都是塊狀的。

That's all now that we may have. And again, we are not especially [favorable].

這就是我們現在所能擁有的一切。再說一次，我們並不是特別[有利]。

Okay. Okay, thanks.

好的。好的，謝謝。

Mark Fitzgerald, Bank of America. Go ahead please sir.

美國銀行的馬克·菲茨杰拉德。先生，請繼續。

On your outlook for 2006 in terms of the modest recovery, I know it's speculative, is that based on basically that the correction in shipments and units in 2005 is relatively modest - 180 to 190 down from 216 in 2003?

關於您對 2006 年溫和復甦的展望，我知道這只是推測，這是否基本上基於 2005 年發貨量和單位數的調整相對溫和 - 從 2003 年的 216 下降到 180 到 190？

Yes. It -- well, in fact, it is a correction of overhang, basically, that we are seeing in 2005. So our 180, 190 units is basically because we shipped a lot in 2004. This is, in fact, very true for foundry, where foundry built significant capacity, if you take TSMC, if you take [Wimsy] or [Smit], very, very significant capacity in 2004.

是的。事實上，這基本上是我們在 2005 年看到的過剩修正。因此，我們的 180、190 個單位基本上是因為我們在 2004 年出貨量很大。事實上，對於代工廠來說確實如此，代工廠在 2004 年建立了相當大的產能，以台積電 (TSMC) 或 [Wimsy] 為例，它們都建立了相當大的產能。

[Indiscernible] digested it and made us have a lower number in the second half of this year, which is kind of natural. And life is back in order in 2006. So, in other terms, in a semiconductor industry, everybody should always look at inventory. Inventory is a big problem. If you lose inventory, then you create this extremely long, terrible cycle as you go down and up.

[音頻不清晰]消化了它並導致我們今年下半年的數字較低，這是很自然的。2006年，生活恢復正常。因此，換句話說，在半導體產業，每個人都應該始終專注於庫存。庫存是一個大問題。如果你損失了庫存，那麼你就會陷入一個極其漫長而可怕的循環，讓你的庫存不斷下降和上升。

In our business, that's got to be overhang. And the good news we are giving today, which I'm sure you're aware of, is inventory of semiconductor products is limited, is under control, is at appropriate level. And overhang is being burnt, as we go into 2005.

在我們的業務中，這必定是一個懸而未決的問題。我相信你們已經知道，我們今天要宣布的好消息是，半導體產品的庫存有限，處於可控的適當水平。隨著我們進入 2005 年，懸垂部分正在被燒毀。

So we are giving you the two reasons to believe that 2006 is back to normal. Now what is back to normal? And then, well, the big question is what's semiconductor growth. And this is why we are saying we don't expect a problem quarter in 2006, like we still have to correct something, like inventory or overhang. But we do expect to have as many orders as the semiconductor growth will justify. And for that, I don't have any more understanding than you have, probably even lower than you have.

因此，我們給出兩個理由，讓您相信 2006 年已經恢復正常。現在什麼恢復正常了？那麼，最大的問題是半導體的成長是什麼。這就是為什麼我們說我們預計 2006 年季度不會出現問題，因為我們仍然需要糾正一些東西，例如庫存或過剩。但我們確實期望獲得與半導體成長相符的訂單數量。而對於這一點，我的理解並不比你多，甚至可能比你還要低。

Basically, 2004 was a great year for you, with the 216 shipments, I assume?

基本上，2004 年對您來說是豐收的一年，我猜想有 216 批貨物，對吧？

That's correct. And if -- you should not even say that in these terms. You should talk in euros because the value of each of the machines and the capability, the capacity installed was enormous. And these are big machines. So 216, as a high end ArF, created a lot of capacity.

沒錯。如果——你甚至不應該用這些術語來表達。您應該用歐元來計算，因為每台機器的價值和能力以及安裝的容量都是巨大的。這些都是大型機器。因此，216 作為高端 ArF，創造了很大的容量。

In terms of value, it was a good year. 2004 was close to €2.5b. And also for this year, we won't be very far off. And as well, you can say 2005 and 2004 are reasonably good years.

從價值角度來看，這是好的一年。 2004年接近25億歐元。就今年而言，我們也不會太遠。你也可以說 2005 年和 2004 年是相當不錯的年份。

So, to have a good year in 2006 might be going back to the kind of unit shipments we had in 2004, which would be something north of 200?

那麼，2006 年的好成績可能意味著出貨量將回到 2004 年的水平，即 200 台以上？

No, no, let's not -- we don't know. It's not, again, appropriate to think what you just said, but again, it's much too early to call these trends.

不，不，我們不要——我們不知道。再次強調，您剛才說的想法並不合適，但是現在說出這些趨勢還為時過早。

Yes, but I'm just saying if the semiconductor industry had a really good year, like it did in 2004, you could ostensibly be looking at 215 in shipments.

是的，但我只是說，如果半導體產業有一個非常好的年份，就像 2004 年一樣，那麼表面上你可能會看到出貨量達到 215。

The positive person would say, we've been living now through, I would say, technology build up for so long. We are going to have a technology build up in 2006 with the 1700. So if the capacity build up coincides, 2006 could be a fairly good year.

積極的人會說，我想說，我們現在已經經歷了技術建設這麼長時間了。我們將在 2006 年透過 1700 進行技術累積。因此，如果產能增加同步，2006 年可能會是相當不錯的一年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question is from [Carsten Alsken], WestLB. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 WestLB 的 [Carsten Alsken]。先生，請繼續。

Yes, hello. I was just wondering whether you could give us the booking, or maybe shipment sum up for your immersion tools in Q2, how many orders secure take for immersion?

是的，你好。我只是想知道您是否可以提供給我們第二季度浸入式工具的預訂情況或出貨總量，浸入式工具可以安全接收多少訂單？

So, in Q2 we have -- let me say differently, we have in backlog another seven to eight units to be shipping this year, which should cover a lot of R&D ground in terms of people developing their immersion processes. And we have started to book in Q2, for 2006, still in the single-digit level, but you can start estimating how much you need to book now to be able to have 20 to 25 units, which we just talked about.

因此，在第二季度，我們——讓我換一種說法，我們積壓了另外七到八個單元，將於今年發貨，這應該涵蓋大量研發領域，包括人員開發他們的浸入式工藝。我們從 2006 年第二季就開始預訂了，目前仍處於個位數水平，但您可以開始估算現在需要預訂多少才能擁有 20 到 25 個單位，正如我們剛才討論的那樣。

And are you willing to say how many tools you shipped in Q2?

您願意透露一下您在第二季運送了多少工具嗎？

Four, I think, four.

四個，我想，四個。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

We have a question from Andrew Griffin, Merrill Lynch. Go ahead please sir.

我們收到了來自美林證券的 Andrew Griffin 的一個問題。先生，請繼續。

Hi. Good afternoon everyone. Just on slide 19 of your presentation, you mentioned that R&D is maintained at €80m per quarter, but also add that you're prepared for additional R&D investments. Could you explain what you meant by that statement, and what the kind of time line on that is, please?

你好。大家下午好。就在您簡報的第 19 張投影片上，您提到研發費用維持在每季 8,000 萬歐元，但同時也補充說您已準備好進行額外的研發投資。能解釋一下這句話的意思嗎？而這句話的時間線是怎麼樣的？

Yes. That means we have now identified, to answer one of your questions about the LCD and the other products we have in mind, certain numbers of things which we would like to do for growth of the sales. And therefore, we would find it appropriate to invest more in R&D to do these new things.

是的。這意味著，為了回答您關於 LCD 和我們考慮的其他產品的一個問題，我們現在已經確定了我們希望採取的一些措施來增加銷售量。因此，我們認為在研發方面投入更多資金來開展這些新業務是適當的。

We want to do this only, of course, if we "can afford" this additional R&D within our profitability targets, which I repeat are 15% operating income on sales on the cycle, more than 5% at the low end of the cycle, and above 20% when things are good, as they were in Q1 and Q2.

當然，只有當我們在獲利目標範圍內「能夠負擔得起」這項額外研發費用時，我們才會這樣做。我再說一遍，我們的獲利目標為：週期內銷售額的營業收入達到 15%，週期低端達到 5% 以上，而當情況良好時，如第一季和第二季那樣，營業收入達到 20% 以上。

In order, therefore, to hit those numbers, can we -- will we be able to afford another €5m to €10m investment in R&D per quarter? The answer is we need to see how Q4 develops and see whether we would be able to time this additional investment within the Q4 timeframe. Or if we have to wait a bit, in Q1, until we have enough volume, which is going to allow us to do this investment, as well as hitting our numbers.

因此，為了達到這些數字，我們能否──我們能否每季再承擔 500 萬至 1,000 萬歐元的研發投資？答案是我們需要觀察第四季的發展情況，看看我們是否能夠在第四季的時間範圍內安排這筆額外投資。或者，如果我們必須等待一段時間，在第一季度，直到我們有足夠的交易量，這將使我們能夠進行這項投資，並達到我們的數字。

You will also notice somewhere else in page 19 that we are going after SG&A. Which is another way of saying if we go after SG&A with significant success, that the savings of SG&A will be reinvested in R&D.

您還會注意到，在第 19 頁的其他地方，我們正在討論銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。換句話說，如果我們在降低銷售、一般和行政費用方面取得顯著成功，那麼節省下來的銷售、一般和行政費用將重新投資於研發。

Thank you. Thanks very much.

謝謝。非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Menon, DRKW. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 DRKW 的 Menon 先生。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Actually, I have a question for Peter, actually. Peter, if I might ask you to go back memory lane a little bit, to your second quarter results there of 2003. And you were looking at the outlook for your order book into the second half of 2003, and you contrast that with the way you are today. Would you say that you're feeling more bullish or less bullish than what you felt at that point in time?

是的。事實上，我有一個問題想問彼得。彼得，請您稍微回顧一下 2003 年第二季的業績。您正在查看 2003 年下半年的訂單前景，並將其與當前的情況進行比較。您是否認為現在的感覺比當時更樂觀還是更不樂觀？

Going back in memory lane might be to the point we have some nightmares. So you are only going back to the second quarter of 2003 then, yes?

回憶往事可能會讓我們做一些惡夢。那麼，您只是回到 2003 年第二季度，對嗎？

That's correct. I just want to see -- check how you felt about the second half then, and compare that with what you are seeing today.

沒錯。我只是想看看——檢查一下你當時對下半場的感受，並將其與你今天看到的情況進行比較。

Well, I think if you -- but I was jokingly -- I was a bit joking, but there is some truth in there. The second quarter of 2003 was a very traumatic end of a long downturn dip. At that moment in time, we didn't have a lot of trust and feeling in the market, simply because we were just at the end of the longest downturn that we, as a Company, or we as an industry, have experienced. So, I think that basically tainted a lot of our feeling at the time.

好吧，我想如果你——但我是在開玩笑——我有點開玩笑，但其中也有一些道理。2003 年第二季是長期經濟衰退的一個非常痛苦的結束。在那個時候，我們對市場沒有太多的信任和感覺，只是因為我們作為一家公司，或者作為一個行業，剛剛經歷了最長的低迷時期。所以，我認為這基本上玷污了我們當時的許多感受。

But clearly, at that moment in time, which when you look back, because we came out of a very deep recession, we had a strong recovery starting in the second half of '03 and that leading to, let's say, a very strong performance in 2004.

但顯然，在那個時刻，當你回顧時，因為我們擺脫了非常嚴重的經濟衰退，所以我們在 2003 年下半年開始強勁復甦，並導致了 2004 年非常強勁的表現。

Where we are now is that what we saw in 2004, the second half, is that when the downturn came in 2004, it was relatively mild. The industry spotted the inventory build relatively quick. Customers were quick to take action. And actually, what we are seeing now is lower booking in Q2 and Q1, because customers did receive a lot of tools in Q4 and towards the end of Q4.

我們現在的情況與 2004 年下半年的情況一樣，2004 年經濟衰退來臨時，情況相對較緩和。業內發現庫存增加相對較快。顧客們很快就採取了行動。實際上，我們現在看到第二季和第一季的預訂量較低，因為客戶在第四季和第四季末確實收到了許多工具。

Where we currently are is what Eric said. Currently, we have seen an overhang, of about 10 percentage points, that we expect will be eaten up by the growth of semiconductor shipments between 6 and 8%. That will lead to a situation where we say -- it will be inevitable that we will see orders coming back, especially in those areas where the utilization is going to be tight. We said it's going to be tight on leading edge foundries.

我們目前所處的位置正如 Eric 所說的。目前，我們看到了大約 10 個百分點的過剩，我們預計這一過剩將被 6% 至 8% 的半導體出貨量成長所抵消。這將導致我們所說的情況——我們將不可避免地看到訂單回升，特別是在那些利用率緊張的地區。我們說過，尖端代工廠的競爭將會十分激烈。

And that, combined with the fact that our memory customers have a very clear shrink roadmap, that will actually lead them to a situation where they need to order for next year, for the 45 nanometer minimum feature size, plus 65 nanometer ramp.

而且，再加上我們的記憶體客戶有非常明確的縮小路線圖，這實際上會導致他們需要在明年訂購 45 奈米最小特徵尺寸以及 65 奈米坡道。

Brings us to a point where yes, we are more, I would say, confident at this moment in time about the future than we were in the second quarter of 2003. But definitely the last part was also definitely influenced by the fact that we came out of a very traumatic period. So, yes, it's a long answer, but I hope it is clear.

是的，我想說，我們現在對未來比 2003 年第二季更有信心。但最後一部分肯定也受到了我們剛走出一段非常痛苦的時期的影響。所以，是的，這是一個很長的答案，但我希望它是清楚的。

If I were to rephrase that, because your orders, from a bearish position in the second half 2003, had shot up very sharply in the second half of '03. But what you're trying to say is, because you came out of a much deeper, longer recession, that is why the orders shot up so fast in the second half. But because you're not so bad right now, you may not see that much of upside.

如果我重新表達一下，那是因為您的訂單從 2003 年下半年的看跌立場開始，在 2003 年下半年急劇上升。但你想說的是，由於你們剛剛走出了一場更為嚴重、更漫長的經濟衰退，所以下半年訂單才會成長得如此之快。但因為你現在的情況還不算太糟，所以你可能看不到那麼多好處。

Correct.

正確的。

If I might be granted one more question?

我是否可以再問一個問題？

Janardan, can we do the first round first?

Janardan，我們可以先進行第一輪嗎？

Sure. Okay, thanks.

當然。好的，謝謝。

The next question is from Thomas Brenier, SG Securities. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 SG Securities 的 Thomas Brenier。先生，請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon. Very shortly, I'd like to have more details on the evolution of services and field option sales. I think you were targeting something lower than that, and I just wanted to know how it should end in the second half, please.

是的，下午好。很快，我想了解有關服務和現場選項銷售發展的更多詳細資訊。我認為你的目標比這要低一些，我只是想知道下半場應該如何結束。

The services, the service income, based on, let's say, hourly billing rates has been relatively stable. It's always been around €50m. And that's the service contracts, yes? Field option sales is really a business that can turn pretty quick. It can be specific projects customers are basically engaging in. So that can vary between, let's say, €10m and €30 -- €10m and €25m to €30m. So, we saw the lower end of that range in the first quarter and we saw the higher end of that range in the second quarter.

基於小時計費率的服務、服務收入一直相對穩定。一直在5000萬歐元左右。這就是服務合同，對嗎？現場選擇權銷售確實是一個可以快速轉變的業務。它可以是客戶正在參與的具體項目。因此，這個數字可以在 1000 萬歐元到 3000 萬歐元之間變化——1000 萬歐元和 2500 萬歐元到 3000 萬歐元之間變化。因此，我們在第一季度看到了該範圍的低端，而在第二季度看到了該範圍的高端。

Difficult to predict. The mean is €20m, €25m, which has been, let's say, something we saw in 2004. But that's where it will be. Difficult to predict. It will be anywhere between €10m and €30m in terms of field options. And the service contract has always had a standard of around €50m.

很難預測。平均值為 2000 萬歐元、2500 萬歐元，可以說這是我們在 2004 年看到的水平。但那確實是它的所在地。很難預測。就場地選擇而言，其價格將在 1000 萬歐元至 3000 萬歐元之間。而服務合約的標準一直在5000萬歐元左右。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from [David Faline], CSFB. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓銀行的 [David Faline]。先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi. Antoine Badel, Credit Suisse. You talk about a capacity overhang of about 10%. How many ASML machines would that represent? I'm trying to understand the sensitivity of your unit shipments to capacity growth in the industry.

是的，你好。瑞士信貸的安托萬·巴德爾 (Antoine Badel)。您談到了約 10% 的產能過剩。這代表著多少台 ASML 機器？我想了解你們的單位出貨量對於產業產能成長的敏感度。

I don't think -- we could potentially give you data. We don't have it with us at this moment, and it starts to be a bit complicated, [indiscernible] is very, very hard on the subject.

我不認為——我們可能會給你數據。我們目前還沒有它，它開始變得有點複雜，[音訊不清晰]對這個問題來說非常非常困難。

Or maybe, putting it another way, for argument's sake, assuming the industry needs 10% more capacity next year, how many unit shipments would that represent for lithography makers?

或者，為了論證的目的，換句話說，假設該行業明年需要增加 10% 的產能，那麼對於光刻機製造商來說，這意味著多少單位出貨量？

For the industry, 10 to 12, if I remember correctly, 450.

對業界來說，10到12，如果我沒記錯的話，是450。

Thank you.

謝謝。

[Indiscernible] numbers if you --

[音訊不清楚] 如果你的數字—

In 200mm equipment?

在 200mm 設備中？

It's an average of 450 of the current mix. Which is why your question is complicated, because there are so many parameters in there, and then you have a mix of technology, as the question [indiscernible]. It's a complex thing, but in the mix that people will take next year, we would think that if the semiconductor industry grows by 10%, selling 450 machines or to 500 machines is not ridiculous in the industry.

目前混合物的平均含量為 450。這就是為什麼你的問題很複雜，因為其中有太多參數，然後你混合了各種技術，因為問題是[音訊不清楚]。這是一件複雜的事情，但在人們明年將採取的組合中，我們會認為，如果半導體行業增長 10%，那麼銷售 450 台機器或 500 台機器對於該行業來說並不荒謬。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. [Michel Fontana, Garnier]. Please go ahead sir.

下一個問題來自 [卡尼爾的米歇爾·豐塔納先生]。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon. Sorry, my question has been answered.

午安.抱歉，我的問題已經得到解答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. We have some follow-up questions gentlemen, is that okay?

謝謝。先生們，我們還有一些後續問題，可以嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Ulrich Pelzer, Lehman Brothers. Go ahead please sir.

烏爾里希·佩爾澤，雷曼兄弟。先生，請繼續。

Yes, thank you. Can I just get one quick clarification around that immersion issue for next year? The unit shipment number that you mentioned, did that relate to the 1700i exclusively, or do you still imagine to be shipping 1250i's and 1400i's?

是的，謝謝。我可以就明年的沉浸式問題快速澄清一下嗎？您提到的單位出貨量是否僅與 1700i 有關，還是您仍認為會出貨 1250i 和 1400i？

And in that context, I think on slide number six or slide number seven, the way you phrase it there is that you have orders for immersion tools in the backlog from leading memory and IDM manufacturers. Do I read into that there are several memory and several IDM companies, or just one each? What exactly does that mean?

在這種背景下，我認為在第六張或第七張投影片上，您表達的方式是，您有來自領先記憶體和 IDM 製造商的浸入式工具積壓訂單。我是否理解為有幾家記憶體公司和幾家 IDM 公司，還是每家只有一家？這到底是什麼意思？

We will have to put a spellcheck to our slides, to be sure. To answer your question first, the number of 20 to 25 units were, at this moment, 1700 only. Okay? Why - because we expect the 1400i to be used potentially as a second tool or as a tool on some nodes when the technology of immersion is proven. Which means people will make use fully of the depth of focus, to improve yield in their normal environment.

為了確保萬無一失，我們必須對投影片進行拼字檢查。先回答你的問題，目前20至25個單位的數量只有1700個。好的？為什麼 - 因為我們預計，當沉浸式技術得到驗證時，1400i 可能會被用作第二種工具或某些節​​點上的工具。這意味著人們將充分利用焦深，在正常環境下提高產量。

So, in other terms, you go for 1700 because you need 45 nanometer, and you go for 1400i when you discover that immersion is a great thing, that will improve your yield at whatever you do. Okay? But that wave will come if and when people get comfortable with immersion.

因此，換句話說，您選擇 1700 是因為您需要 45 奈米，而當您發現浸沒是一件好事時，您就會選擇 1400i，無論做什麼，它都會提高您的產量。好的？但當人們適應了沉浸式體驗後，這股浪潮就會到來。

So, that basically means you are looking to ship a limited number of, say, 1400i's on top of the 1700i that you have in mind?

那麼，這基本上意味著您希望運送有限數量的 1400i 以及您心目中的 1700i？

That is exactly correct.

完全正確。

And can you shed some light on the spellcheck-related part of the question please?

您能否解釋一下問題中與拼字檢查相關的部分？

On which one, sorry?

抱歉，是哪一個？

The customers.

顧客。

Oh, the customers. It's a spelling mistake.

哦，顧客。這是一個拼字錯誤。

Right, okay. I think the manufacturer relates to one IDM, one memory, yes?

好的，好的。我認為製造商與一個 IDM、一個記憶體有關，是嗎？

That's correct. We cannot lie to you.

沒錯。我們不能騙你。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Mr. Orji has a follow up question, JP Morgan. Go ahead please sir.

摩根大通 (JP Morgan)，Orji 先生有一個後續問題。先生，請繼續。

Hi. Just, Peter, two things. One is on your cash flow.

你好。彼得，只有兩件事。一是你的現金流。

Uche, can you speak up?

Uche，你能大聲說出來嗎？

Yes. Can you hear me now?

是的。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. One is on your cash flow. You've obviously generated cash quarter after quarter. Can you just give us an idea of what you plan to do with this and if at any time you plan to look at dividends? That's one.

好的。一是你的現金流。顯然，您每個季度都產生了現金。您能否告訴我們您計劃如何處理這筆資金，以及您是否計劃在任何時候考慮股息？那是一個。

And two, how shall we model your expenses going forward, given that you're deferring the LCD? What's going to happen to R&D, and how should we think about SG&A for modeling now?

第二，假設您延後了 LCD，我們該如何規劃您未來的開銷？研發將會發生什麼事？我們現在應該如何考慮建模的銷售、行政和行政管理費用 (SG&A)？

Yes. I think, to answer the last question, we've always had -- the guidance that we have given is without any significant investment in LCD, so that remains unchanged. As you know, we have used part of what we call the incubator fund, that we always have in R&D, to fund part of that development. That money will be directed to all the programs that Eric alluded to.

是的。我認為，回答最後一個問題，我們一直以來給出的指導就是不對 LCD 進行任何重大投資，所以這一點保持不變。如您所知，我們使用了我們所謂的孵化器基金（我們一直用於研發）的一部分來資助部分開發。這筆錢將用於埃里克提到的所有項目。

On the cash -- so there is no difference in guidance there. Basically we exclude that.

就現金而言——因此指導方面沒有差異。基本上我們排除了這一點。

On terms of cash generation, we have said in the past also that we think that looking at the Company, our market share growth products, still the growth of this industry. We think a Company of the size of ASML, bearing in mind that you need to have cash to deal with the up-cycles; that way you will have to put money to work in working capital. But also the cash we have to do strategic programs, we think this Company should be around €1b in net cash.

在現金產生方面，我們過去也曾說過，我們認為從公司來看，我們的市佔率成長產品仍然是這個產業的成長。我們認為，對於像 ASML 這樣規模的公司，請記住，您需要有現金來應對上升週期；這樣，您就必須將錢投入營運資本。而且我們還擁有用於執行戰略計劃的現金，我們認為該公司的淨現金應該在 10 億歐元左右。

We are not there. We are around €680m, €700m. So we are close, and once we hit that point, clearly we either use that cash for what I just said, for strategic issues. And if we cannot find strategic alternatives to bring us at least a return on the investment capital we have in our current business, we didn't make a secret of it, that we think that money should go back to the shareholders. Whether it's dividends or it's a focused buyback program, those are the things that we would need to consider. And we'd like to consult our shareholders also from time to time on this.

我們不在那裡。我們的金額約為 6.8 億歐元、7 億歐元。所以我們已經很接近了，一旦我們達到這一點，顯然我們要么將這筆現金用於我剛才所說的戰略問題。如果我們找不到策略替代方案，至少不能為我們目前業務的投資資本帶來回報，我們毫不掩飾地認為，這些錢應該會返還給股東。無論是股利還是有針對性的回購計劃，這些都是我們需要考慮的事情。我們也願意不時就此事諮詢我們的股東。

So, I think that's where we are. As you know, the cash balance of between €1.5b and €1.6b is a good gross cash balance. We have €850m of loans on the balance sheet also, as you know. So net, it's still not at our target.

所以，我認為這就是我們現在的狀況。如您所知，15億歐元至16億歐元之間的現金餘額是一個很好的總現金餘額。如您所知，我們的資產負債表上還有 8.5 億歐元的貸款。因此，總體來說，它仍然沒有達到我們的目標。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Nicolas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please sir.

Nicolas Gaudois 先生，德意志銀行。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Hi there. Just a follow up on the immersion for the 1400i. If we just go back to your analysts' presentation in September and also the TSMC Tech Symposium, clearly TSMC was thinking about using by '06 the 1400i for depth of focus improvement. And from your comments, Eric, it seems like this is still up in the air. Could you clarify why this is the case, and are you making any tweaks or improvements to the tools to actually convince TSMC and other customers to make batches of these tools for depth of focus? Thank you.

是的。你好呀。這只是對 1400i 沉浸感的後續跟進。如果我們回顧一下 9 月分析師的演講以及台積電技術研討會，顯然台積電正在考慮在 2006 年之前使用 1400i 來改善景深。艾瑞克，從你的評論來看，這似乎仍懸而未決。您能否解釋為什麼會出現這種情況？您是否對這些工具進行了任何調整或改進，以真正說服台積電和其他客戶大量生產這些工具以實現深度聚焦？謝謝。

Again, it's a good question. My fault was only of timing. My response was, I would say, theoretical because all this is being discussed and negotiated, depending on difficulties of putting the processes in place. We see today an aggressive need to get to 45 nanometer from certain numbers of people. So they will fight to get a 1700i slot and therefore, my answer was automatically 1700i will come quickly.

再次強調，這是個好問題。我的錯誤只是時機不對。我想說，我的回答只是理論上的，因為所有這些都在討論和協商中，取決於實施這些流程的難度。今天，我們看到一定數量的人迫切需要達到 45 奈米的水平。因此他們會爭奪 1700i 的插槽，因此我的答案自然是 1700i 很快就會推出。

The 1400i, as I said, is exactly as you say, a depth of focus, yield improvement machine. And the question then becomes, when will TSMC really ramp capacity immersion processes in their fab. We can ask them. At this moment, it is somewhere in 2006 or whatever. But I did meant to or I believe that it would be more at the end of the year, rather than the beginning. So the 1700 would take most of the capacity. So, still the same message; timing unclear.

正如我所說，1400i 正如您所說的那樣，是一款深度對焦、產量提高的機器。那麼問題來了，台積電何時才能真正提高其晶圓廠的浸沒式製程產能？我們可以問他們。此時，時間大約是 2006 年左右。但我確實打算或我相信這會在年底而不是年初發生。因此 1700 將佔用大部分容量。所以，仍然是同樣的訊息；時間不明。

Okay. Thanks for the clarification.

好的。感謝您的澄清。

Final question, Mr. Menon. Go ahead please sir.

最後一個問題，梅農先生。先生，請繼續。

Yes, thanks. Can you tell me what the pricing of the 1700i is, I mean the [indiscernible]?

是的，謝謝。你能告訴我 1700i 的定價是多少嗎，我是說 [音頻不清晰]？

Very high.

非常高。

Would €30m be --?

3000 萬歐元是——嗎？

Yes, it's about €30m.

是的，大約3000萬歐元。

That's the list price, Janardan.

這就是標價，賈納丹。

That's the list price. But even on the discounted price, the upside in terms of price from the 1400i would be in the same percentage range?

這是標價。但即使是折扣價，1400i 的價格上漲幅度是否也在相同的百分比範圍內？

It's clearly there, yes.

是的，它顯然就在那裡。

Okay. And so, if the majority of your shipments are going to be of that ASP, then even if some capacity orders are going to ramp towards the end of 2006, you should be able to -- would you be able to keep a flattish ASP in terms of new tools from current levels in 2006?

好的。因此，如果您的大部分出貨量都符合該平均銷售價格，那麼即使到 2006 年底部分產能訂單將會增加，您也應該能夠——您能否將 2006 年新工具的平均銷售價格保持在與當前水平持平的水平？

Again, I'm just trying to avoid giving you guidance on 2006. It is, however, true that you can put certain numbers of scenarios on an Excel spreadsheet, where you put 20, 25 products at -- the €30m-ish we [indiscernible]. And with some 1400 play, with two or three scenarios of capacity, because we don't know what the capacity plays will be. And then you come up with certain numbers of average ASP.

再說一次，我只是想避免給你有關 2006 年的指導。不過，你確實可以在 Excel 電子表格中輸入一定數量的場景，其中輸入 20 到 25 種產品——價值 3000 萬歐元左右，我們 [音訊不清晰]。而且有大約 1400 個遊戲，有兩到三個容量場景，因為我們不知道容量遊戲會是多少。然後您就會得到平均 ASP 的某些數字。

But to answer your question, yes, there is a chance that this significant amount of immersion tools would raise the average ASP, of course.

但要回答你的問題，是的，當然，大量的沉浸式工具有可能提高平均 ASP。

But it's also very clear, Eric made that comment also quite clearly, it does depend on how strong 2006 will be, also in terms of the capacity orders. Because the more capacity orders you will have, the more dilutive effect you might have on the ASP, which has a good positive side effect, in the sense that your volume will be, of course, a lot bigger.

但同樣非常清楚的是，艾瑞克也非常清楚地發表了這一評論，這確實取決於 2006 年的表現如何強勁，也取決於產能訂單的情況。因為你擁有的產能訂單越多，你對平均售價的稀釋效果就越大，這會帶來正面的副作用，因為你的產量當然會大得多。

And we are going to introduce the critical products, KrF and i-line, the famous [UHD] machine, 400 and 760. So, if we get successful there, again, it will be huge rates.

我們將介紹關鍵產品 KrF 和 i-line，著名的 [UHD] 機器，400 和 760。因此，如果我們在那裡取得成功，那麼我們的利潤將非常可觀。

Plus you will have a higher volume. So it's really -- ASP question for next year, you also have to answer the question whether you think your capacity, whether your total shipments will be, what will be the mix. So, it's a bit difficult but trends, like Eric said, it's not unreasonable to -- I expect what you basically just said.

另外，您的音量也會更高。所以這真的是 - 明年的平均售價問題，你還必須回答這個問題，你是否認為你的產能，你的總出貨量是多少，組合會是什麼樣的。所以，這有點困難，但趨勢就像艾瑞克所說的那樣，這並非不合理——我期待你剛才所說的。

Sure. And you did comment earlier that you will get orders from foundries in Q3, which you will ship in Q4, right? Or did I hear that wrong?

當然。您之前確實說過，您將在第三季收到代工廠的訂單，並在第四季度發貨，對嗎？還是我聽錯了？

I said from customers.

我說的是來自顧客。

From customers.

來自客戶。

But foundries, could be.

但代工廠可能會有。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Mr. Meurice, there's --

莫里斯先生，有——

I think we are ready for one last question, possibly, here.

我想我們可能已經準備好回答最後一個問題了。

There are no further questions sir.

先生，沒有其他問題了。

Okay. Then we thank everybody for being at this call and see you soon. Thanks. Bye.

好的。然後我們感謝大家參加這次電話會議，希望很快能見到你們。謝謝。再見。

Thank you very much. Bye bye.

非常感謝。再見。

Bye bye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML second quarter 2005 conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2005 年第二季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。