艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2005 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the ASML third quarter 2005 conference call on October 12, 2005. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Mr. Craig DeYoung, go ahead please.

歡迎參加 2005 年 10 月 12 日 ASML 2005 年第三季電話會議。 （操作員指示）。現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。克雷格·德揚先生，請繼續。

Greetings everyone. This is Craig DeYoung from ASML's Investor Relations department. On behalf of ASML's Board of management and Investor Relations I would like to welcome you to ASML's Q3 results conference call.

大家好。我是 ASML 投資者關係部的 Craig DeYoung。我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會和投資者關係部歡迎您參加 ASML 第三季業績電話會議。

Joining us today is Eric Meurice, ASML's Chief Executive Officer, and Peter Wennink, ASML's Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Eric for a brief summary of the results followed by your questions, please let me remind you that the duration of the call is one hour. We kindly request that you ask just one question to allow for maximum participation, should we have a second round of questioning -- should we have time, a second round of questioning will take place.

今天與我們一起出席的有 ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 和 ASML 財務長 Peter Wennink。在我將電話轉給 Eric 以便他簡要介紹結果並回答您的問題之前，請允許我提醒您，通話時間為一小時。為了最大限度地提高參與度，我們懇請您只問一個問題，如果我們有時間，就會進行第二輪提問。

Lastly, let me draw your attention to our website at ASML.com where you can find today's press release accompanied by our consolidated financial statement and a Q3 PowerPoint presentation.

最後，請容許我提請您追蹤我們的網站 ASML.com，您可以在此找到今天的新聞稿以及我們的合併財務報表和第三季 PowerPoint 簡報。

The matters discussed in this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties identified in the Safe Harbor statement and posted on our website, as included in our Form 20F, and as contained in our other SEC filings. And now let me turn it over to Eric.

本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受安全港聲明中確定的風險和不確定性的影響，並發佈在我們的網站上，包括在我們的 20F 表格中，以及我們的其他 SEC 文件中包含的內容。現在讓我把話題交給 Eric。

Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for attending our call. I am not going to summarize in fact the presentation that you have on the Web, but I am going to extract three key messages and earnings from our Q3 execution.

早安，下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。事實上，我不會總結您在網路上的演示，但我將從我們第三季的執行中提取三個關鍵資訊和收益。

The first message is one of robust robustness and good financial results, in view of the relatively low sales level that we have achieved in Q3, and which was expected. In other terms Q3 has been for us the proof that ASML has now the capability to deliver good operating income, good net income in a low point of cycle. We have never, or for a long time at least, been able to deliver a level of 13% operating income on sales with sales level of 500 to EUR530 million. So this quarter basically is proof of our capability to deliver now regularly within the cycle to our targets, which I repeat are a minimum of 15% operating income on average on the cycle, above 20% operating income on the top side of the cycle, and at worst case, 5% at the low level of the cycle.

第一個訊息是強勁的穩健性和良好的財務業績，考慮到我們在第三季度實現的銷售水平相對較低，這也是意料之中的。換句話說，第三季向我們證明了 ASML 現在有能力在周期低點實現良好的營業收入和淨收入。我們從來沒有，或至少在很長一段時間內，能夠實現在銷售額為 5 億至 5.3 億歐元的情況下，銷售額的營業收入達到 13% 的水平。因此，本季基本上證明了我們有能力在周期內​​定期實現我們的目標，我再說一遍，週期內平均營業收入至少達到 15%，週期頂端營業收入超過 20%，最壞的情況下，週期低點營業收入達到 5%。

This robustness comes from two areas. One is our capability to maintain price. And this is a measure of the performance of our machine. And in spite of the fact that the volume is not very high customers are still willing to pay the appropriate price to get our machines.

這種穩健性來自於兩個方面。一是我們的維持價格的能力。這是對我們機器性能的衡量。儘管銷售量不是很高，客戶仍然願意支付適當的價格來購買我們的機器。

The other part of robustness is with cost, our capability to reduce costs on one hand and variablize cost to volume on the other. So the first message is robustness of our financial capabilities.

穩健性的另一部分是成本，一方面我們有能力降低成本，另一方面我們有能力讓成本隨產量而改變。因此，第一個訊息是我們的財務能力穩健。

Second message is the definite business pick up. We guided before the beginning of Q3 that we would have higher bookings than Q2 in Q3. And effectively we declared 46 net bookings for Q3, which compared to the 26 of Q2. It is a significant improvement. And as you notice, we have shipped 39 units in Q3. That is also a significant book to bill.

第二個訊息是業務一定會回升。我們在第三季開始之前就預測，第三季的預訂量將高於第二季。實際上，我們宣布第三季的淨預訂量為 46 個，而第二季為 26 個。這是一個重大的進步。正如您所注意到的，我們在第三季已經出貨了 39 台。這也是一本值得關注的重要書。

If you added to this -- for the 6 net booked in Q3 the fact that we believe that we will be about the same level of bookings in Q4, you will probably calculate the resulting fairly strong start of '06. And this is what, again, we feel fairly optimistic about. We feel optimistic about this order picking up and stabilizing also in Q4 because most of the bookings of Q3 has been achieved with the memory -- in the memory sector and in the IDM sector, but not so much through foundry sector. And we expect the foundry sector to start picking up in Q4.

如果您將此添加到 - 對於第三季度的 6 個淨預訂量，我們相信第四季度的預訂量將達到大致相同的水平，您可能會計算出 2006 年開局相當強勁。而這，再次讓我們感到相當樂觀。我們對第四季度訂單回升和穩定感到樂觀，因為第三季的大部分訂單都是透過記憶體領域和IDM領域實現的，而透過代工領域實現的並不多。我們預計代工業將在第四季開始回升。

You add to this that in addition to unit the average ISP of our net bookings is fairly high, which again confirmed the quality of the bookings level. So that was the second message after robustness, the business pick up, and the first outlook I would say of '06 which looks positive.

除此之外，您還補充說，除了單位之外，我們的網路預訂的平均 ISP 也相當高，這再次證實了預訂等級的品質。這是繼穩健性、業務回升之後的第二個訊息，也是我對 2006 年前景的第一個樂觀預測。

The third message learnings from Q3 is the materialization of our share increase -- market share increase. Clearly three items are contributing to this. First is the one or two customers that we have started to deliver to in Q2, in particular the memory suppliers -- or manufacturers in Taiwan. These are now continuously purchasing, and they are starting to make a difference on the numbers. And that is very positive news.

從第三季獲得的第三個資訊是我們的份額成長—市場佔有率成長的實現。顯然有三個因素導致了這個現象。首先是我們在第二季開始向一兩個客戶交付產品，特別是記憶體供應商或台灣的製造商。現在這些企業都在持續採購，並且開始對數量產生影響。這是非常正面的消息。

The second positive news is immersion. We have now in the market nine immersion tools. As you know, some of them at research labs, some of them in the memory sector, some of them in the IDM sector, some of them in the foundry sector. And we are starting -- we are in fact seeing a continuous booking. And we are declaring now to have a backlog including 10 units, and a significant amount of them being 1,700. So here again a proof that ASML is at the lead of immersion, and in particular, at the lead of any development of our customers in the 45 nanometer rate.

第二個好消息是沉浸式體驗。目前，我們在市場上有九種浸入式工具。如您所知，他們中的一些人在研究實驗室，有些人在記憶體部門，有些人在IDM部門，有些人在代工部門。我們已經開始——事實上，我們看到了持續的預訂。我們現在宣布積壓了 10 個單位，其中相當一部分是 1,700 個。這再次證明 ASML 在浸入式製程方面處於領先地位，特別是在 45 奈米速率方面領先於我們客戶的任何開發。

The third item, after the new customer ramping, the immersion ramping and success, the third is Japan. We are very happy here to, in addition to I would say solidifying our business with securing customers, we're able to announce the fifth customer. Although I won't announce a name, of this account, but we are very happy to announce a first order of an immersion tool by a fairly large Japanese semiconductor firm, which is again a way to materialize our success.

第三項，在新客戶增加、沉浸感增加和成功之後，第三個是日本。我們非常高興，除了透過獲得客戶來鞏固我們的業務之外，我們還能夠宣布第五位客戶。雖然我不會公佈這個帳戶的名稱，但我們非常高興地宣布一家相當大的日本半導體公司首次訂購了浸沒式工具，這又是實現我們成功的一種方式。

So again three messages. Robustness, business pickup, and share increase, which gives us an optimistic view of 2006. And I would like here to apologize a bit for our messages of the Analyst Day in which we tried to be scientific about giving you a first outlook of 2006 to be sure that everybody would be in the same understanding. So let me try to repeat what we said at the Analyst Day in a way that I hope will dispel any confusion, if there are still some -- there is still some.

再次強調，這是三個訊息。穩健性、業務回溫及市場佔有率增加，讓我們對2006年充滿樂觀。在這裡我想對我們在分析師日的發言表示一點歉意，我們試圖以科學的方式為大家提供對 2006 年的初步展望，以確保每個人都能有相同的理解。因此，讓我試著重複一下我們在分析師日上說過的話，希望能消除任何困惑，如果還存在一些困惑的話——還是有一些困惑的。

What we think is that in 2006 now we're able to identify I would say three buckets of sales. The first bucket is one that you will derive from a capacity requirement by our customer based on their own needs for machines in view of increase of business units that they have to deliver. And for that we do not expect, we just assume, a total number of units semiconductor growth 2006 versus 2005 at the level of 5%.

我們認為，2006 年我們能夠確定三種銷售類型。第一個類別是根據我們的客戶本身對機器的需求得出的，因為他們需要交付的業務單位增加了。對此我們並不進行預期，我們只是假設 2006 年半導體總產量與 2005 年相比將增加 5%。

So again it is not an expectation. We're not a specialist for that. They are certain numbers of research houses who are publishing different numbers. I would say they are between 5 and 10%, but they are probably at the single digit level. And we want to signal by this that we are not building up a cathedral on a dream above some percent. We are assuming at this moment in our own internal planning 5% unit range. And if we do our models shows that we would be at about the same level of sales than 2005 -- in 2006 only sustained by these 5% unit growth.

所以這又不是一個期望。我們不是這方面的專家。有一定數量的研究機構發布了不同的數字。我想說它們在 5% 到 10% 之間，但可能處於個位數的水平。我們想以此表明，我們不會為了超過某個百分比的夢想而建造大教堂。目前，我們假設我們自己的內部規劃為 5% 單位範圍。如果我們這樣做，我們的模型顯示我們的銷售額將與 2005 年大致相同——2006 年僅靠 5% 的單位成長率維持。

But to this first bucket we would add a second bucket, which is one which we would call market share increase. And clearly I already mentioned that we're fairly happy to see certain numbers of new customers, bookings more and solidifying our first entries I would say. And this, we clearly expect this to happen in 2006, and therefore create growth for us.

但是，在第一個桶中，我們會添加第二個桶，我們稱之為市場份額增加。顯然，我已經提到過，我們很高興看到一定數量的新客戶、更多的預訂以及鞏固我們的第一批客戶。我們明確預期這將在 2006 年實現，從而為我們帶來成長。

The third bucket is the immersion bucket. So the immersion bucket has two facets. One that makes the ASP increase. In fact, immersion tool is a higher priced tool than a standard tool. And therefore even if you deliver the same amount of R&D tools than we would do in 2005, these tools would cost more than 2005. So there is an upside due to ASP. But there is also an upside due to the fact that immersion may ramp, in fact, significantly at the end of 2006, creating per se an area where we have a very high market share, and would create again significant growth.

第三個桶是浸泡桶。因此浸泡水桶有兩個面向。導致 ASP 增加的一個因素。事實上，浸入式工具比標準工具價格更高。因此，即使你提供的研發工具數量與 2005 年相同，這些工具的成本也會比 2005 年更高。因此 ASP 具有上漲空間。但也有好處，因為沉浸式體驗可能在 2006 年底大幅提升，從而創造出一個我們擁有很高市場份額的領域，並將再次創造顯著的成長。

In summary what we meant to say at the Analyst Day, and nothing has changed there, is that we have a baseline which is basically some level of sale driven by normal capacity growth, which would justify, if we assume 5% unit, about the same level of sales of 2005. On which we will add bucket one, which is market share increase, on which we will add bucket two, which is immersion ASP/market share increase or volume increase.

總而言之，我們在分析師日上想要表達的意思（並且這一點沒有任何改變）是，我們有一個基準，基本上是由正常產能增長推動的一定程度的銷售，如果我們假設單位增長率為 5%，那麼這將證明與 2005 年的銷售水平大致相同。在此基礎上，我們將添加第一個桶，即市場份額增加，在此基礎上，我們將添加第二個桶，即沉浸式 ASP/市場份額增加或數量增加。

But to those two buckets we have asked you to be a bit patient. We will be able to quantify a bit more those two additional buckets at the end of the year within our process of budgeting. And we just wanted to give in fact a fairly positive news then that says in any event we expect to grow basically sales from 2005 to 2006.

但對於這兩個桶，我們要求您稍微耐心一點。我們將能夠在年底的預算過程中進一步量化這兩個額外的預算。我們只是想公佈一個相當積極的消息，也就是說，無論如何，我們預計 2005 年至 2006 年的銷售額將有所增長。

On this I would like now to leave it to questions. And Peter Wennink and myself would be very happy to try to address.

關於這一點，我現在想留給大家提問。Peter Wennink 和我非常樂意嘗試解決這個問題。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Nav Sheera, Citigroup.

（操作員指令）。花旗集團 Nav Sheera。

I just wanted to ask with regards to the trade-off. In the presentation pack and in terms of also the ASP guidance for fourth quarter of '05, it does seem that you are gaining market share in noncritical layer machines, i-line and the ArF. But that increased market share could be coming at the expense of ASP erosion. I know in the past you have said 70% market share of the whole litho market is tenable for yourselves. Is there potentially a disconnect between these two, i.e. how you might actually continue to gain market share, and at the same time also support the ASP level you are currently at? Thank you.

我只是想問一下有關權衡的問題。在簡報中以及 2005 年第四季的 ASP 指導中，看起來你們在非關鍵層機器、i-line 和 ArF 方面確實正在獲得市場份額。但市佔率的增加可能會以平均售價的下降為代價。我知道你們過去曾說過，你們可以佔據整個光刻市場的 70% 份額。這兩者之間是否存在潛在脫節，即您如何繼續獲得市場份額，同時又能支持您目前的平均售價水準？謝謝。

Thank you very much. This is an excellent question. You cannot take quarter to quarter as being symbolic of any trend. You may be right. You may be wrong in the whole of 2006 depending on this, I would say, fight between the capacity requirements, whether the customers are going to ask for more units because they need, in fact they would grow more than 5% unit per year, or whether they will ask for more ArF because they're doing more R&D work. That issue -- that equation is unknown even from us.

非常感謝。這是一個非常好的問題。你不能將季度變化視為任何趨勢的象徵。你可能是對的。你可能會錯，但根據我的判斷，2006 年全年的產能需求都在不斷增加，客戶是否會要求更多的單位，因為他們需要，事實上他們每年的單位數量將增長 5% 以上，或者他們是否會要求更多的 ArF，因為他們正在進行更多的研發工作。這個問題——這個等式甚至連我們都不知道。

What you see in Q4 is very basic mathematics. There was a lot of R&D purchases, as you can see from the little pie chart that you have on our ArF due to R&D buildup, Q4 is one where we have more KrF -- I would say even just mathematically, or we have less ArF. That is why you get this little erosion of price, but in fact I'm looking at my own current preliminary ASP for Q1 and Q2 '06, and you see that that trend of reduction in Q4 is not sustained.

您在 Q4 中看到的是非常基礎的數學。我們進行了大量研發採購，正如您從小餅圖中看到的那樣，由於研發投入的增加，我們的 ArF 在第四季度有所增加——我想說，即使只是從數學上講，我們的 ArF 也可能減少。這就是價格略有下降的原因，但事實上，根據我自己對 2006 年第一季和第二季的初步平均銷售價格的觀察，您會發現第四季的下降趨勢並未持續。

That is also, by the way Nav, that is also evident by the average selling price we have in the backlog. That is basically an indication of where the prices are going, and they're going up. And like Eric said, it is an incidental mix in the Q4 that happens to favor 300 nanometer KrF.

順便說一下，Nav 也從我們積壓訂單的平均售價可以看出這一點。這基本上表明了價格的走向，而且價格正在上漲。正如 Eric 所說，這是 Q4 中的一種偶然混合物，恰好有利於 300 奈米 KrF。

Thank you very much. That's quite clear. Just a very quick follow-up. Are you able to turn ArF systems yet, or is that predominately KrF turns business you have been looking at?

非常感謝。這很清楚。只是一個非常快速的跟進。您是否已經能夠轉變 ArF 系統，或者您主要關注的是 KrF 轉變業務？

In the quarter, you mean?

您指的是本季嗎？

Yes.

是的。

ArF in the quarter is going to be a bit difficult, but KrF we can, yes.

本季的 ArF 將會有點困難，但 KrF 我們可以，是的。

Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬修‧格爾 (Matthew Gehl)。

I had just a question on regarding the comment you made about Q4 bookings likely being flattish sequentially with the level of Q3. First of all, could you just confirm that comment relates to units?

我只是想問一下您關於第四季度的預訂量可能與第三季度的水平持平的評論。首先，您能否確認該評論與單位有關？

Yes.

是的。

What do you expect as far as the ASP of the bookings in Q4? Q3 appears to have a significant benefit from ArF bookings. Is this a trend where we can see a flat ASP in bookings in Q4, or what level would you be expecting?

您對第四季的預訂平均售價有何預期？Q3 似乎從 ArF 預訂中獲得了顯著收益。這是否是一個趨勢，即我們可以看到第四季度的預訂平均售價持平，或者您預期會達到什麼水平？

Probably a bit lower, because of the KrF content of the foundries. But again, it is a bit hard, because when we give you a guidance on bookings we have a lot of pluses and a lot of minuses in our models. So this is why in fact when we guided to you -- when we guide billings we give you a very clear number. When we guide bookings we give a range. And this is because we have a bit of difficulty to time exactly which one comes when, so you have to be cautious with our business that we have sometimes very large orders of high content which comes a bit late, etc., etc. So a bit complicated to guide on ASP at this moment on the bookings in Q4.

可能略低一些，因為鑄造廠含有 KrF 成分。但同樣，這有點困難，因為當我們為您提供預訂指導時，我們的模型中有很多優點和缺點。所以這就是為什麼當我們指導您時 - 當我們指導賬單時，我們會給您一個非常明確的數字。當我們指導預訂時，我們會給出一個範圍。這是因為我們很難準確把握何時到來，所以你必須對我們的業務保持謹慎，有時我們會收到大量高含量的訂單，這些訂單會來得有點晚，等等。因此，目前指引第四季的預訂平均售價有點複雜。

In general, I would say if we see customers from the memory segment driving the shrink road map orderings, they order at the leading edge side. When, like we say at the press release when we would expect foundry customers to start ordering for their capacity additions, they will order some leading edge, but they definitely also are going to order, let's say, mix critical layer tools to support their capacity ramp. So that has a mitigating effect on the ASP growth. That is in general that is what you would see extract (ph).

總的來說，我想說，如果我們看到來自記憶體領域的客戶推動縮小路線圖的訂購，那麼他們就會在前沿領域訂購。就像我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣，當我們預計代工客戶開始訂購增加產能時，他們會訂購一些前沿技術，但他們肯定也會訂購混合關鍵層工具來支援其產能提升。因此這對 ASP 成長有緩解作用。一般來說，這就是您所看到的提取物（ph）。

Is there a chance to throw in a quick follow-up or --?

是否有機會進行快速跟進或--？

I thought --.

我以為——。

Next question please.

請問下一個問題。

Nicolas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank.

尼可拉斯‧高杜瓦，德意志銀行。

You are saying in your guidance that effectively the bookings flat Q over Q in Q4 implies some recovery in ordering from foundries. Would you qualify that this recovery you are foreseeing is already for incremental capacity additions next year vis-a-vis this year? And is it also generalized? We're talking about Taiwan, Singapore, plus China, specifically on China I note that your backlog was pretty much in existence in the first quarter. Would you expect some catch-up coming back in Q4?

您在指導中表示，第四季度的訂單量與上一季度持平實際上意味著代工廠的訂單有所回升。您是否認為，您預見的復甦已經意味著明年產能將比今年增加？而且它也是普遍性的嗎？我們談論的是台灣、新加坡以及中國，特別是在中國，我注意到您的積壓訂單在第一季就基本存在。您是否預計第四季會出現一些追趕？

Yes, yes and yes. We do expect a capacity increase by all of those continents. We are seeing this because when they're talking about their own order book, which is now stabilized, and then they are seeing some good orders and good shipments in the September time frame. They wanted to spend a bit of time checking that this would be sustained. And it seems that it is the case in the different countries we're talking about. We have already started to pick up some of these orders, by the way, at the beginning of the quarter. So we feel that it is now time for them, and also in view of most of their capacity utilization percentage, that it is the right time for them to book I would say capacity investment.

是的，是的，是的。我們確實預計所有這些大洲的運力都會增加。我們之所以看到這種情況，是因為當他們談論自己的訂單時，訂單量現在已經穩定下來，並且他們在 9 月看到了一些不錯的訂單和不錯的出貨量。他們想花一點時間來檢查這是否能夠持續下去。在我們談論的不同國家，情況似乎都是如此。順便說一下，在本季度初，我們已經開始接收其中一些訂單。因此，我們認為現在是時候了，考慮到他們的大部分產能利用率，現在是他們預訂產能投資的最佳時機。

And these increments basically are still you would qualify on the moderately cautious side vis-a-vis what you would have expected? I'm assuming what is happening really is that foundries are a bit more positive -- your memory customers have booked already quite a bit in the previous quarter for H1 '06. But more enthusiasm from a foundry standpoint would, I guess, push bookings higher sequentially. Is that the right way to look at it?

這些增量基本上仍符合您的預期，您會採取適度謹慎的態度嗎？我認為實際發生的情況是代工廠的態度更加積極一些——你們的內存客戶在上一季已經為 2006 年上半年預訂了相當多的內存。但我猜想，從代工角度來看，更多的熱情將推動預訂量連續走高。這是正確的看待方式嗎？

No, in fact, I think the key point is we see a pick up but we do not see a major change of trend. Remember that we started the discussion with we expect only 5% unit growth in the world. And we expect -- sorry, we assume -- and this is where also the foundry people are. So they are just being a bit more capacity. You cannot say that the wave is back and we go back up to a major upturn. This is absolutely not the message we want to give at this moment.

不，事實上，我認為關鍵是我們看到了回升，但沒有看到趨勢的重大變化。請記住，我們在開始討論時預計全球單位成長率僅為 5%。我們預計——抱歉，我們假設——鑄造廠的人員也在這裡。所以他們的容量只是稍微大了一點。你不能說浪潮已經回歸，我們又回到了大幅好轉的狀態。這絕對不是我們此刻想要傳達的訊息。

Jay Deahna, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑伊·迪阿納（Jay Deahna）。

How many immersion tools did you book in the third quarter?

您在第三季預訂了多少個沉浸式工具？

Jay, can you please speak up because we can't hear you?

傑伊，你能大聲說點嗎，因為我們聽不見你說話？

How many immersion tools did you book in 3Q, and how many do you expect to book in 4Q?

你們在第三季預訂了多少個浸入式工具，預計在第四季預訂多少個？

We have 8 booked in the third quarter. And I would not like to give you guidance on the fourth quarter. But to give you a hint, out of the 8 a lot -- like 100% -- near 100%-ish are 1700. And Q4 will be probably the rest of the 1700 to cover Q1, Q2, Q3, so that could be significant.

我們在第三季已經預訂了 8 個。我不想給你關於第四季的指導。但給你一個提示，在這 8 個中，很多 — — 例如 100% — — 接近 100% 的是 1700。第四季可能將涵蓋剩餘的 1700 個季度、第二季度和第三季度，因此這可能意義重大。

So you're indicating it should be up, is that what you're saying?

所以您的意思是它應該會上升，是這個意思嗎？

It could be. From 8 there is a possibility for that, but you cannot -- again, this is what I was referring when the question on ASP was asked. These are serious negotiation, commitments. It is one by one. And therefore I can't really permit to date when these things happen booking-wise.

有可能。從 8 開始就有這種可能性，但你不能——再說一次，這就是我在問有關 ASP 的問題時所指的。這些都是嚴肅的談判和承諾。是一個接一個的。因此，從預訂角度來看，我真的無法允許這些事情發生的時間。

And we said earlier that we would expect 20 to 25 tools to be shipped in 2006. And we have 10 in the books. So we still have one quarter to go for 2005. So it is going to be either Q4 or Q1. It is very difficult to really time these things on the dot.

我們之前曾說過，我們預計 2006 年將交付 20 到 25 種工具。我們已經記錄了 10 項。因此，距離 2005 年還有一個季度。所以它要嘛是 Q4，要嘛是 Q1。真正準確地把握這些事情的時機非常困難。

Robert Maire with Needham.

羅伯特·梅爾與尼達姆。

In terms of your outlook going forward about foundry spending increasing, could you give us some more color to that as to have customers shared with you their plans or their sort of roll out to the next generation of technology? What is it that makes you confident in terms of order increases out of the foundries over the next quarters?

關於您對未來代工支出成長的展望，您能否為我們提供更多細節，以便讓客戶與您分享他們的計劃或他們對下一代技術的推廣？是什麼讓您對未來幾季鑄造廠的訂單增加充滿信心？

It is a bit difficult, of course, to speak about customers' internal plans. I would refer you to them, of course. What I can say, however, which is known is those major foundry companies, particularly in Taiwan, are now serious about technology transition. And as you know publicly from GSMCs, they are are investing heavily in immersion. And this of course creates a symbol and an example for others to follow. So clearly on this side of technology you see more R&D investment than you have probably ever seen.

當然，談論客戶的內部計劃有點困難。當然，我會向你推薦他們。然而，我可以說的是，眾所周知，那些主要的代工公司，特別是台灣的代工公司，現在正在認真對待技術轉型。正如您從 GSMC 公開了解的那樣，他們正在大力投資沉浸式體驗。這當然會為其他人樹立一個值得效仿的象徵和榜樣。因此，很明顯，在技術方面，你看到的研發投資比以往任何時候都要多。

Also, foundries are now starting to move their capacity utilization on the high end, on the leading edge of the technology to levels that requires additional bookings. So in another terms they succeed to sell more and more of their high-tech part of their product.

此外，代工廠現在開始將其產能利用率從高端轉移到技術前沿，達到需要額外預訂的水平。換句話說，他們成功地銷售了越來越多的高科技產品。

I also would not give you any secret here if I say that (indiscernible) Rick Sigh (ph) has been vocal in saying that he feels that he's getting more involved in that, but there is a price of technology which we have to address. And so with him, and with the foundry, we're working on finding economic solutions to the leading edge environments. And they are very much a leader into this effort.

如果我說（音訊不清晰）Rick Sigh（音調）一直直言不諱地說他覺得自己越來越參與其中，但我們必須解決技術帶來的代價，那麼我在這裡也不會告訴你任何秘密。因此，我們正與他以及鑄造廠合作，努力尋找適合前沿環境的經濟解決方案。他們是這項努力中的領導者。

In terms of memory outlook going forward over the next few quarters I would assume, though I didn't hear an explicit comment, that you expect the current strength of memory to hold up as is, or would you expect that to back off? What is your view of the memory market demand?

就未來幾季的記憶體前景而言，我會假設，雖然我沒有聽到明確的評論，但您預計當前的記憶體強度將保持現狀，還是您預計它會減弱？您對記憶體市場需求有何看法？

What I meant to say is that the first half of '06, which we call the strong, will have a similar pattern than the first half of '05, where it was very highly dominated by the memory work. And this in fact is sustained by the order book that we have solidified in Q3.

我的意思是，我們所說的 2006 年上半年將具有與 2005 年上半年類似的模式，其中記憶工作佔據主導地位。事實上，這是由我們在第三季鞏固的訂單所維持的。

In addition to that, if you would ask, are you going to expect more orders from memory makers, yes, we are. I don't think they have booked their full requirement for 2006. So over the next couple of quarters we will see the memory bookings clearly. And it will be focused on addressing their technology needs because of the shrink road maps. Their shrink road maps are pretty aggressive, and they need the leading edge tools, our 1400s and 1700s to cope with that. So this is definitely not the end of memory bookings.

除此之外，如果您問，您是否會期待從內存製造商獲得更多訂單，答案是肯定的。我認為他們還沒有完成 2006 年的全部需求。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將清楚地看到記憶體預訂情況。由於路線圖縮小，它將專注於滿足他們的技術需求。他們的收縮路線圖相當激進，他們需要採用尖端工具，即我們的 1400 和 1700 來應對這一問題。所以這絕對不是記憶預訂的終點。

I would expect that your memory bookings should be a higher ASP because they seem to be perhaps a little bit more aggressive in terms of feature size reduction?

我預計你們的記憶體預訂量應該有更高的平均售價，因為在特徵尺寸縮減方面，他們似乎更積極一些？

And that is correct.

這是正確的。

Shekhar Pramanick, Moors and Cabot.

謝卡爾普拉曼尼克、《摩爾斯》和《卡伯特》。

Just a question on the immersion unit view for 2006. If I recall previously you have talked about mid-20s kind of immersion -- number of immersions you're going to ship in 2006. Has the that view changed at this point? And secondly what is the lead time on the immersion units?

我只是想問一下關於 2006 年浸入式單元視圖的問題。如果我沒記錯的話，您之前曾談到過 20 年代中期那種沉浸式體驗——2006 年您將推出的沉浸式體驗數量。現在這種觀點改變了嗎？其次，浸入式裝置的準備時間是多久？

We said 23 to 25. And we said a possibility of an upside if the immersion process technology gets qualified in time by our customers. The lead time is about nine months.

我們說的是23到25。我們說過，如果浸入式製程技術能夠及時得到客戶的認可，那麼就有可能實現成長。準備時間約為九個月。

The question I am really asking is given in your backlog currently you have about ten immersion booked. And even if you have to come in at the low end of immersion units, you must really going to be still bookings almost incrementally 14 units over the next four months to five months.

我真正想問的問題是，根據你的積壓情況，目前你已經預訂了大約十個沉浸式課程。即使您必須進入低端沉浸式單元，您實際上仍將在接下來的四到五個月內以幾乎 14 個增量預訂單元。

Six months.

六個月。

That is a point -- when you ask me the nominal question about what is the nominal lead time, it is nine months. It is possible that for some accounts it takes a bit of time to agree with the different specs and different conditions, different commercial conditions, whereby we have a gentleman's agreement that the product is started a bit ahead of the finish of those official purchase orders being put in. So which is why -- and to Jay's question when he was asking how much do you think we're going to book, there is a difference in digital (ph) bookings and real booking, which we really don't want to get into that discussion. But it is timing that is for us a bit unsure.

這就是重點——當你問我名義上的交貨時間是多少時，答案是九個月。對於某些帳戶來說，可能需要一些時間來適應不同的規格、不同的條件和不同的商業條件，因此我們達成了一項君子協議，即產品的開始時間要比正式採購訂單的完成時間稍早。所以這就是為什麼——當傑伊問你認為我們的預訂量是多少時，數位預訂量和實際預訂量是有區別的，我們真的不想參與這個討論。但對我們來說，時機有點不確定。

For next year it is still another six months.

明年還有六個月。

I understand. But what about -- are you more incrementally positive relative to three months ago that the number of immersion units shipped in '06 could be higher than the number you just stated?

我明白。但是，與三個月前相比，您是否更加確信 2006 年出貨的浸入式設備數量可能會高於您剛才所說的數量？

I don't remember what we said three months ago, but not -- we are exactly at the level we discussed at the Analyst Day. We are, as you can see, bullish on own performance. We feel comfortable about the quality of our product. We feel comfortable about the fact that of course 1700 is a product without competition. The only product with which you can do 45 nanometer. That is the obvious thing. And the industry is making progress on qualifying the processes, as you have seen from iMac. I think iMac has now published a certain number of good data showing (indiscernible) density improvement, etc., etc. So all this looks positive, but at the same level as what we had at the Analyst Day.

我不記得三個月前我們說過什麼，但現在我們正處於分析師日討論的水平。如您所見，我們對自己的表現充滿信心。我們對我們的產品的品質感到滿意。當然，1700 是一款沒有競爭的產品，我們對此感到很放心。唯一可以達到 45 奈米等級的產品。這是顯而易見的事。正如您在 iMac 上看到的那樣，該行業在流程認證方面正在取得進展。我認為 iMac 現在已經發布了一定數量的良好數據，顯示（音訊不清晰）密度有所提高，等等。因此，這一切看起來都是正面的，但與我們在分析師日所看到的水平相同。

Jan-Willem Berghuis with Kempen & Co.

Jan-Willem Berghuis 與 Kempen & Co.

I also had a question on immersion. I understand the lead time is nine months. But technically speaking when will customers be able to really say the system has been qualified for the 45 nanometer node? Will it also mean that within six months you expect to have some kind of clarity on when the customers are ready to do follow-up orders for real volume production? Or would it take longer before you really know the real demand for immersion, because obviously there's a lot of built up interest, but that there still need to be a production environment test. Would it also take six months or longer would you say?

我對沉浸感有疑問。我知道準備時間是九個月。但從技術上講，客戶何時才能真正說系統已經符合 45 奈米節點的要求？這是否也意味著，在六個月內，您希望能夠明確了解客戶何時準備好進行實際大量生產的後續訂單？或者是否需要更長的時間才能真正了解沉浸式體驗的真正需求，因為顯然人們已經累積了許多興趣，但仍需要進行生產環境測試。您說這是否也需要六個月或更長時間？

I would say in an old-fashioned way you would take a machine, do a R&D eval work. It would take you six months to nine months to make your work done and then you would buy the machines, which takes another nine months of free time. That is the old way.

我想說的是，按照傳統的方式，你會拿一台機器，進行研發評估工作。你需要花六個月到九個月的時間來完成你的工作，然後你還要買機器，這又需要九個月的空閒時間。這是老辦法。

We expect that old way not to happen, in particular because of in the flash environment you better take some risk to be the first one introducing the next level of integration. And so we have at this moment, at this very moment, the first negotiation on the second buy. So they haven't yet seen the first, of course, but they are already negotiating the to slot some production machine in 2006.

我們希望舊的方式不會發生，特別是因為在閃存環境中你最好承擔一些風險，成為第一個引入下一級整合的人。因此，此時此刻，我們正在就第二次購買進行第一次談判。當然，他們還沒有看到第一部，但他們已經在協商在 2006 年推出一些生產機器。

Of course, it is a commercial nightmare for both sides, and therefore we want to stay conservative as to whether that happens, which is why you heard me say 20 to 25 is a standard. I mean it is an appropriate numbers to believe in. And above 25 or above the average is whether we succeed with those production ramps.

當然，這對雙方來說都是一場商業噩夢，因此我們希望對這種情況是否會發生保持保守態度，這就是為什麼你聽到我說 20 到 25 是一個標準。我的意思是這是一個值得相信的數字。高於 25 或高於平均值決定了我們能否成功實現產量提升。

Okay. That is also clearly meant with the guidance so it flat, but additional orders above the 20, 25 will be the upside for you in 2006? That's -- (multiple speakers).

好的。這也明顯與指導意見一致，因此訂單量持平，但 2006 年超過 20、25 的額外訂單對您來說會是好事嗎？那是－－（多位發言者）。

No, I was even -- again, I was not clear enough. You have already an upside even at 23 units because of the ASP.

不，我甚至——再說一遍，我說得不夠清楚。由於 ASP，即使只有 23 個單位，您也已經具有上行空間。

Because basically you ship maybe 10 or 15 this year and next year you ship more, so you had an increase from that perspective?

因為基本上你今年的出貨量可能為 10 或 15 輛，而明年的出貨量會更多，所以從這個角度來看，你的出貨量有所增加？

That's correct. Plus the ASP is a big driver.

沒錯。此外，ASP 也是一個重要驅動因素。

Sure. Thanks very much. It is very clear.

當然。非常感謝。非常清楚。

Andrew Griffin, Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的安德魯格里芬。

I wonder if you could talk about the order linearity across the quarter? Did the big increase come towards the end of the quarter, or was it fairly smooth across Q3? And how is it progressing into Q4? Is it remaining strong, which is why you are so confident about the Q4 level of orders being flat?

我想知道您是否可以談談整個季度的訂單線性？大幅成長是出現在季度末嗎，還是在第三季相當平穩？第四季進展如何？它是否保持強勁，這就是您對第四季度訂單水平持平如此有信心的原因？

We booked everything after the Analyst Day. No, no. We are always having a hockey stick in the quarter on bookings. You are taking me a bit aback, because I usually like to respond in scientific ways to your questions. I haven't compared with the other quarters, but remember when you get -- in fact, because it was a good quarter in terms of units, bookings, and because it comes lumpily, yes, in some ways the last week has been significant. We had two memory guys come in with significant bookings in the last week. And that is where you get your hockey stick in question.

我們在分析師日之後安排好了一切。不，不。我們本季的預訂量總是呈現曲棍球棒狀。你讓我有點吃驚，因為我通常喜歡用科學的方式來回答你的問題。我沒有與其他季度進行比較，但請記住——事實上，因為就單位、預訂量而言這是一個好季度，而且因為它來得突然，是的，從某種方面來說，上周非常重要。上週我們有兩位記憶專家來負責大量預訂。這就是您所討論的曲棍球棒的問題所在。

But again as I say, I would not qualify this as a difference or as a trend or anything. It is negotiations that takes place, and then you go through, and then you negotiate price, and you get there, etc., etc. So nothing special does happen, but it is true most of the orders have been officially booked the last two weeks.

但正如我所說，我不會將此視為差異或趨勢或任何東西。這是要進行的談判，然後你們要完成，然後你們要協商價格，然後你們要到達目的地，等等，等等。因此，沒有什麼特別的事情發生，但確實大多數訂單已經在過去兩週內正式預訂。

Given you suggested that orders will be flat into Q4. Does that mean there will be less of a hockey stick in the fourth quarter? I'm assuming you must have more confidence than normal to make this assertion.

鑑於您暗示第四季度的訂單將持平。這是否意味著第四節的比賽將不再那麼激烈？我認為你一定比平常更有信心才能做出這樣的斷言。

You are very well versed into our body language. Yes. Yes, it is a bit more stability now, and it is because some of the memory bookings that Peter was talking about, which we still expect, are being followed up on the big hockey stick of Q3. And because foundry people are a bit more linear in terms of (inaudible).

您非常熟悉我們的肢體語言。是的。是的，現在更加穩定了，這是因為 Peter 談到的一些內存預訂（我們仍然期待）正在 Q3 的大曲棍球棒上進行跟進。而且因為代工廠人員在（聽不清楚）方面比較線性。

Matthew Gehl, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬修‧格爾 (Matthew Gehl)。

Just a follow-up question on margins for Peter. The midpoint of your guidance for Q4 being 37% would be a very impressive performance, given this large drop off in revenues. And I am just trying to get a sense of what type of upside potential there is as revenues again ramp going into next year, particularly in Q1. Is there any way you could share with us for every 100 million of revenue increase what would be your incremental margin of that? What could we see dropping down to the gross profit line, or some way we could get a sense of how leveraged you are to a volume and a revenue ramp going into next year?

我只是想問彼得一個關於利潤率的後續問題。考慮到收入大幅下降，您對第四季度的預期中位數為 37%，這將是一個非常令人印象深刻的表現。我只是想了解一下，隨著明年收入再次增加，特別是第一季度，存在什麼樣的上行潛力。您能否告訴我們，每增加 1 億收入，您的增量利潤是多少？我們能看到什麼下降到毛利線，或者我們能以某種方式了解您對明年的銷售和收入成長的槓桿作用如何？

I would like to reverse that. You can calculate what the margin decrease was when we went from Q2 to Q3, for instance. So I think that gives a reasonably good indication. On the reason of the margin guidance and that we basically upped our guidance for Q4 as compared to the previous quarter was that we are seen the effect of the cost of goods program coming through, which is true for the whole line, for the mechanical parts, for the optical parts. And that is basically the main driver, so it is execution.

我想扭轉這種局面。例如，您可以計算出從第二季到第三季的利潤率下降了多少。所以我認為這給了一個相當好的指示。關於利潤率指引，以及我們基本上上調了第四季度指引的原因，與上一季相比，我們看到了商品成本計劃的影響，這對整個生產線、機械部件和光學部件都是如此。這基本上是主要的驅動力，所以這就是執行力。

And clearly when the volume goes up like we expect it to do in Q1, there will be an effect because we just have better coverage of our fixed costs. And if you want to have indication, just look back, look at the history of this year and you get a reasonably good indication.

顯然，當銷售量像我們預期的第一季那樣上升時，就會產生影響，因為我們可以更好地覆蓋固定成本。如果你想要得到指示，只要回顧一下，看看今年的歷史，你就會得到一個相當不錯的指示。

On the other hand, you'll have some difficulties to make a cost model because as we often say, we want to manage the Company between 38 and 40% no matter what in some ways to ensure that we grow on the market share towards the natural market share. If we do have some leeway you will see us investing more in demo units, etc., and more customer service investment, which will impact negatively the margin, but again (multiple speakers).

另一方面，制定成本模型會遇到一些困難，因為正如我們常說的那樣，無論如何，我們都希望將公司控制在 38% 到 40% 之間，以確保我們的市場份額朝著自然市場份額的方向增長。如果我們確實有一些迴旋餘地，你會看到我們在演示單元等方面投入更多，並在客戶服務方面投入更多，這將對利潤產生負面影響，但同樣（多位發言者）。

The margin potential.

利潤潛力。

The margin potential between 38 and 40. We are still in that mode of management. We hope to continue this in 2006. That should help us still deliver operating income correctly, and allow us to grow. We are offering here a model of a minimum profitability of, we hope, a good level, and the capability to grow. And remember, our target is to be 5 billion soon.

利潤潛力在 38 至 40 之間。我們仍然處於那種管理模式。我們希望在 2006 年繼續這樣做。這應該有助於我們正確實現營業收入，並讓我們成長。我們在此提供的是最低獲利能力模型，我們希望該模型能夠達到良好的水平，並且具有成長能力。請記住，我們的目標是很快達到 50 億。

Just to clarify, Peter, going from Q2 to to Q3 you had more than a 200 million drop-off in revenues, and you are down 200 basis points in gross margin. You are saying you need to get back up to that 750 level of revenues to get back to 39% gross margin?

彼得，需要澄清的是，從第二季到第三季度，你們的收入下降了 2 億多美元，毛利率下降了 200 個基點。您是說需要將收入恢復到 750 的水平才能恢復 39% 的毛利率？

That is a reasonable assumption.

這是一個合理的假設。

Even with the benefits of cost of goods sold?

即使有銷售成本的好處？

There could be some upside there, but just like Eric said, we are very much focused on gaining the market share, because we think that is an essential part of the Company's strategy. You know very clearly where we are going to penetrate, in what areas. And that will -- we have always said that we are willing to sacrifice percentage points of our gross margin to make sure that we get that.

這可能有一些好處，但正如艾瑞克所說，我們非常專注於獲得市場份額，因為我們認為這是公司策略的重要組成部分。你非常清楚我們要向哪裡、在哪些領域進行滲透。我們一直說，我們願意犧牲毛利率的百分點來確保實現這一目標。

So it depends on let's say the speed with which we will do the market penetration and where we'll do it, where we will consume some of that margin upside that we are creating. We are creating that upside in our cost of goods to make sure we can execute this strategy. And the strategy of the Company is to actually be, as I said, at 38 to 40% gross margin, but grow and then leverage our SG&A base and our R&D base to basically get a better operating income up. That's what we focus on.

所以這取決於我們進行市場滲透的速度、我們將在何處進行市場滲透、我們將在何處消耗我們創造的部分利潤空間。我們正在提高商品成本以確保我們能夠執行此策略。正如我所說，公司的策略實際上是將毛利率保持在 38% 至 40% 之間，然後不斷增長，並利用我們的銷售、一般及行政費用基礎和研發基礎來提高營業收入。這就是我們關注的重點。

Mark Fitzgerald with Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬克·菲茨杰拉德。

I was just wondering on the good expense control in the third quarter, it is sustainable into the ramp into the first quarter on revenues? Will you be at the same expense level?

我只是想知道第三季良好的費用控制是否能夠持續到第一季收入的成長？您的支出水準會維持在同樣的水準嗎？

What we are doing is in times when we, let's say, cannot afford the spending because we want to maintain our financial performance, which is Q3 and Q4 where we have lighter shipment quarters clearly. You will see that level of spend. We are also guiding our SG&A spends down in the fourth quarter. And you will see that when we have good quarters, some of the projects that we're not executing on we will execute, so that might have an impact on the SG&A level going up. But the focus of the Company for 2006 is to have a SG&A level in 2006 that is not going to exceed the 2005 level. And when I say it is not going to exceed, you can read into that that we have internal targets that are more aggressive than just staying par.

我們這樣做是因為我們無法承擔支出，因為我們想維持我們的財務業績，也就是第三季和第四季度，我們的出貨量明顯較少。您會看到這種支出水平。我們還將指導第四季度降低銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 支出。您會發現，當我們的季度業績良好時，我們會執行一些我們尚未執行的項目，因此這可能會對銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 水準的上升產生影響。但公司 2006 年的重點是使 2006 年銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 水準不超過 2005 年的水準。當我說不會超出時，你可以理解為我們有比保持平價更積極的內在目標。

Is it the same for the R&D line?

研發線也是一樣嗎？

The R&D line, what we have said -- what we will save in SG&A we will want to put into R&D. We have very clearly a challenge because our competitors are not sitting still. They announce products with new specifications. We just want to make sure that we have the right level of R&D spend to come out with those products that make us a competitive company. And what you will see is that the R&D, which is now at around an $80 million level could be between 80 and 85 going forward. And that is depending on when we spend on the particular project that we have in mind to secure our competitive position.

就研發線而言，我們已經說過，我們將把節省下來的銷售、一般和行政費用投入研發。我們顯然面臨著挑戰​​，因為我們的競爭對手並沒有停下來。他們發布了具有新規格的產品。我們只是想確保我們有適當的研發投入，以推出能夠讓我們成為一家具有競爭力的公司的產品。您將會看到，目前的研發投入約為 8,000 萬美元，未來可能會達到 8,000 萬美元到 8,500 萬美元之間。這取決於我們何時在特定項目上投入資金以確保我們的競爭地位。

Matt Gable, Calypso Capital.

馬特蓋博 (Matt Gable)，卡利普索資本 (Calypso Capital)。

Real quick, in terms of --.

就--而言，真的很快。

Speak up, because it is difficult to hear.

大聲說出來，因為很難聽清楚。

In terms of new units booked, what percent of that was 300 mm roughly?

就新訂單量而言，其中大約有 3 億單位？

Units booked that was 300 mm, that is the majority. I just have to look that up. It was the majority, the vast majority. (multiple speakers).

預訂的單位為 300 毫米，佔大多數。我只需要查一下。這是大多數，絕大多數。 （多位發言者）

There is now color on how many immersion units you think you can book in Q4?

現在您知道您認為在第四季度可以預訂多少個沉浸式單元了嗎？

Like we said, I think we can ship between 20 and 25. We have done all the books now, so with a lead time of another nine months we need to book another 10 to 15 over the next five to six months. So the timing of when we will book that is very much dependence on what Eric said. It is the negotiation with our customers about specs, about delivery time. So it is difficult to really pinpoint down to a number, which is going to be single digit per quarter, to say it is going to be higher, it is going to be lower than what we booked in Q3. Too much things going on in the negotiation with our customers.

正如我們所說的，我認為我們可以運送 20 到 25 輛。現在我們已經完成了所有的書，因此在接下來的九個月的準備時間內，我們需要在接下來的五到六個月內預訂另外 10 到 15 本書。因此，我們何時預訂很大程度上取決於 Eric 所說的內容。這是我們與客戶就規格、交貨時間進行的談判。因此，很難真正精確地確定一個數字，即每季的個位數，或者說它將更高，或者它將低於我們在第三季的預期。與客戶的談判中發生了太多事情。

Steward Adrienne, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的管家艾德麗安 (Adrienne)。

You talked about 2006 potentially shaping up a little like 2005 in terms of the first half of the year looking pretty strong. Is there anything you are expecting in order trends as you go into the beginning of '06 that would imply a weakening in the second half of 2006? Or are you basically just saying, we just don't know what is happening in the second half '06?

您談到 2006 年可能與 2005 年有些相似，因為上半年的情況看起來相當強勁。在進入 2006 年之初，您是否預計會出現一些趨勢，從而暗示 2006 年下半年會出現疲軟？或者您基本上只是想說，我們只是不知道 2006 年下半年會發生什麼事？

It is too early. We really don't know. The driver of the second half will be this famous numbers of units of semiconductor growth, which none of us really are in control or know of. And the second bit is the speed at which immersion is going to ramp into production, which again requires a bit more time before we can address the question.

現在還太早。我們確實不知道。下半年的驅動力將是半導體成長的顯著數量，而我們實際上沒有人能夠控製或了解這些數量。第二點是沉浸式技術投入生產的速度，我們還需要更多時間來解決這個問題。

Maybe just a quick follow-up. On the -- I think the one customer that we really haven't talked about much at all is the IDMs. Could you maybe just discuss what you have seen recently, and what your expectation is going through Q4 and into the first part of next year?

也許只是一個快速的跟進。我認為我們實際上很少談論的一個客戶是 IDM。您能否討論一下您最近看到的情況，以及您對第四季和明年上半年的期望？

In fact, 2005 has been a good year for IDMs in general. Their utilization rate has been constant. We are getting nice orders on a regular basis. And we expect this to be continuing. So there is a mixture of capacity and leading edge equipment, which is being ordered by each of them. So again, nothing earth shattering, nothing very different from 2005. But again, 2005 IDM-wise was an appropriate year. Of course, for us in the IDM issue involved with processor guys, you could see potentially the possibility for us to improve sales in there, if we were to increase market share in some of the processor companies.

事實上，2005 年對 IDM 來說整體來說是好的一年。它們的利用率一直保持穩定。我們定期收到不錯的訂單。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。因此，他們各自都在訂購容量和尖端設備。所以，再說一遍，沒有什麼驚天動地的事情，跟 2005 年也沒有什麼不同。但從 IDM 角度來看，2005 年仍然是合適的一年。當然，對於我們這些涉及處理器廠商的IDM問題來說，如果我們能夠增加一些處理器公司的市場份額，你就有可能提高我們在那裡的銷售額。

Mehdi Hosseini with FBR.

Mehdi Hosseini 與 FBR。

When you look at your customers -- IDM customers, the ones that have capacity for both logic and memory, especially with flash, do you expect those customers to install immersion in flash lines first and then migrate that to logic?

當您查看您的客戶——IDM 客戶，也就是那些擁有邏輯和記憶體容量（尤其是快閃記憶體）的客戶時，您是否希望這些客戶首先安裝浸入式快閃記憶體線，然後將其遷移到邏輯？

For some of those customers we have the opportunity to selling two immersion tools, one for each department, and for some only one. Yes, it is expected that the ones in flash will ramp first. But I repeat, we have been happy to receive double orders for some of them. One R&D for flash, one R&D for logic.

對於其中一些客戶，我們有機會銷售兩種浸入式工具，每個部門一種，而對於一些客戶，只銷售一種。是的，預計快閃記憶體中的產品將首先增加。但我重申一下，我們很高興收到其中一些產品的雙倍訂單。一個負責快閃記憶體的研發，一個負責邏輯的研發。

Just as a follow-up, there is a new customer that you signed up in Japan. Does it happen to be on the logic or memory side?

作為後續跟進，您在日本簽約了一位新客戶。它是否恰好在邏輯或內存方面？

It would it be interesting for you to figure out who it is. No, I can't say.

弄清楚他是誰對你來說會很有趣。不，我不能說。

Jonathan Dutton, UBS.

瑞銀的喬納森·達頓。

My question has been answered actually. Thanks.

我的問題實際上已經得到解答了。謝謝。

Tom Abpenay (ph), Society General.

湯姆阿布佩奈 (Tom Abpenay)（音譯），協會會長。

Sorry to ask a very basic question, but I would really like to understand this outlook for 2006 and your -- especially what is within your baseline scenario with the 5% unit growth in semiconductor units leading to flat revenues for ASML? Is the additional (ph) flat units and flat ASP, or is it something very different from that? The first part.

抱歉，我問了一個非常基本的問題，但我真的很想了解 2006 年的前景以及您的前景——特別是在您的基準情景下，半導體單位數量增長 5% 會導致 ASML 的收入持平？附加（ph）單位數和 ASP 是否持平，還是與之有很大不同？第一部分。

And I would really like to understand is the 23 to 25 units part of this scenario, or is it kind of one of the possible bonuses?

我真的很想了解 23 到 25 個單位是否屬於這種情況的一部分，或者它是可能的獎金之一？

You are getting now into modeling questions which may be a bit complicated for the call. Let me try to help you however. No, there is a bit of ASP increase and a bit of unit down on the "base scenario", which again as I repeat is a bucket. It is not a base scenario like the minimum. It is in the area of business we talk about. And we still see an ASP increase of some level, not as highest as 10%. And again, in our model, is the way we have done it. Then the 20 to 23 additional units -- and I say again it is a bucketing question. They do replace the 1400 basically, so the 1400 units are in the base scenario and the upsides ASP is in the upside scenario. I hope I make myself clear. But again you're talking about how you make your models compared to ours

您現在正在討論建模問題，這些問題對於通話來說可能有點複雜。不過，讓我盡力幫助你。不，在「基本情境」中，ASP 略有增加，而單位數量略有下降，我再重複一遍，這是一個桶子。它並不是最低限度那樣的基本場景。我們所談論的正是商業領域。我們仍然看到 ASP 有一定程度的成長，但最高不超過 10%。在我們的模型中，我們也是這樣做的。然後是 20 到 23 個附加單位——我再說一遍，這是一個分類問題。它們確實從根本上取代了 1400，因此 1400 個單位處於基本情景，而上行 ASP 處於上行情景。我希望我說清楚了。但你又在談論你們如何製作你們的模型與我們的模型相比

So the upside to the base plan included immersion ASP in addition to immersion units in case we get into production soon. And then in addition to that you've got the bucket of market share increase, which to be honest with you, we've got a little set of customers' names, and we know exactly how many units -- what? we know exactly -- we believe that we have for the numbers of units coming, which is the third bucket. And we add them all and we say that is higher than current sales. Did I help you?

因此，如果我們很快就投入生產，基本計劃的優勢除了包括浸入式單元外，還包括浸入式 ASP。除此之外，您還獲得了市場份額的成長，老實說，我們掌握了一些客戶的名字，並且我們確切地知道有多少個單位——什麼？我們確切地知道——我們相信我們擁有即將到來的單位數量，這是第三個桶。我們把它們全部加起來，我們發現這比目前的銷售額還要高。我幫助你嗎？

Mostly, yes.

大部分情況下是的。

Thank you. Sorry. Did I dishelp anybody else? No, okay.

謝謝。對不起。我有幫助別人嗎？不，好吧。

Mr. Mennon (ph), go ahead, please. Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

門農先生（音），請說。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

I am from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Just to understand the order intake in Q3 and Q4, when you are guiding at the beginning of Q3 that you would be up in the quarter, was what you were expecting somewhat near where you though, which is up from 19 new orders to 38, or was it -- were you expecting a smaller jump in the order book?

我來自 Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein。只是為了了解第三季和第四季的訂單量，當您在第三季初預測本季訂單量會增加時，您的預期是否接近您的預期，即從 19 個新訂單增加到 38 個，還是 - 您預計訂單量會有一個較小的成長？

We got a bit more.

我們得到了更多。

Was that bit more from the sort of Taiwanese DRAM companies in last week of the quarter?

本季度最後一周，台灣 DRAM 公司的表現是否有提升？

The bit more was on the memory segment. Yes. All over.

更多的是有關記憶部分的內容。是的。遍。

Just looking into the fourth quarter, to a previous question you were saying that you have sort of more visibility into the fourth quarter and that it won't be exactly like a hockey stick, because of the fact that the memory orders, which started in the late part of Q3 is continuing into Q4, and the foundries are more linear. Does that mean you have already started getting the foundry orders? Or would it be fair to say that the foundries as still holding off, and they will order towards the end of the quarter?

回顧第四季度，對於之前的問題，您說過，您對第四季度有了更多的了解，而且它不會完全像曲棍球棒一樣，因為從第三季度末開始的內存訂單將延續到第四季度，而且代工廠的發展更加線性。這是否意味著你們已經開始獲得代工訂單了？或者可以公平地說，代工廠仍在推遲生產，並將在本季結束時下訂單？

We got a part of the foundry orders.

我們獲得了部分代工訂單。

You have already started. And --.

你已經開始了。和 - 。

A part of it. And don't -- let's not get the cake and celebrate now. It is still highly difficult to predict those different things. So we don't have then in the pocket yet. I don't want to be understood.

其中的一部分。不要——我們現在不要吃蛋糕慶祝。預測這些不同的事情仍然非常困難。所以我們還沒拿到錢。我不想被人理解。

Is there a chance that you could end up in the order book being higher in Q4, or do you rule that out altogether at this point in time?

第四季的訂單量有可能增加嗎？或者目前您是否完全排除了這種可能性？

We can be higher or lower. It is -- again these are -- I am learning my job now -- is granular stuff, and you have plus or minus 10 units without you seeing them coming. Because -- not because you lose them, but because the timing gets a bit scary. So we are on the one hand taking a bit -- a position to guide you on bookings, because we thought it was important that your model reflect as much as possible the reality. But on the other hand you understand that we are taking a risk here plus or minus 10 units is not inappropriate to have this without changing so much the trend of 2006.

我們可以更高，也可以更低。我現在正在學習我的工作，這些都是精細的東西，你可以在不察覺的情況下看到正負 10 個單位的變化。因為——不是因為你失去了他們，而是因為時機有點可怕。因此，一方面，我們會採取一些措施來引導您預訂，因為我們認為讓您的模型盡可能反映現實情況非常重要。但另一方面，您明白，我們在這裡承擔了風險，在不改變 2006 年趨勢的情況下增加或減少 10 個單位並不合適。

You also have to remember that because it is becoming more difficult for us to predict exactly when things come in. We're talking about between now 20 and EUR30 million tools that are all landing on the desk of the CEO. And he is going to ask questions. These things take time, and that is why it is very difficult to say I'm going to get that order on the 24th of a particular month. That is not the case.

您還必須記住這一點，因為我們越來越難以準確預測事情何時發生。我們正在談論現在價值 2000 萬到 3000 萬歐元的工具，這些工具都擺在了執行長的辦公桌上。他將會提出問題。這些事情需要時間，這就是為什麼很難說我會在某個月的 24 日收到訂單。事實並非如此。

Just one last short question, if I can, which is when we model your ASP trend into Q3, what actually happened in your shipment ASP where you reported a new (indiscernible) of EUR15 million, you had an improving product mix in the quarter. Quite a sizably improving product mix in terms of the ArF tools. And even if we keep pricing flat, assuming certain pricing, I agree which you're getting because you're giving both the revenue and the units in your presentation so we can get at least an approximation of that. But as you keep those pricing flat and we model the mix shift, we seem to be coming to a higher ASP. So what I am trying to get at is did you actually discount, especially on your KrF tools in the quarter at all, or is there something else happening which we're not entirely getting to?

如果可以的話，我只想問最後一個簡短的問題，那就是當我們將您的 ASP 趨勢建模到第三季時，您的出貨量 ASP 的實際情況是怎樣的？您報告了新的（難以辨認）1500 萬歐元，您在本季度的產品組合有所改善。就 ArF 工具而言，產品組合有了相當大的改善。即使我們保持價格不變，假設一定的價格，我同意你得到的結果，因為你在演示中給出了收入和單位，所以我們至少可以得到一個近似值。但是，當您保持這些定價平穩並且我們對混合變化進行建模時，我們似乎會得到更高的 ASP。所以我想知道的是，您是否真的打了折扣，特別是針對本季的 KrF 工具，還是發生了其他我們沒有完全了解的事情？

I think what you are seeing in the quarter is that a very significant part of our bookings were was our 1400 and our 1700. Those are all tools that we have which have list prices between 25 and EUR30 million. So a very significant part of our bookings was in that category. And that drives up the ASP specifically for this quarter quite up.

我認為您在本季度看到的是，我們的訂單中很大一部分是 1400 和 1700。這些都是我們擁有的工具，售價在 2500 萬至 3000 萬歐元之間。因此，我們的預訂中很大一部分屬於這一類別。這導致本季的平均售價大幅上漲。

Now if you say, what is that -- the impact it has on the next quarter. Clearly where we have foundry customers coming, they will not book the same level of 1400 and 1700. They are also going to make book mid critical layer tools which is KrF. That means that ASP will go down, because it is more foundry weighted. And foundries don't order that aggressively unless they have 45 nanometer and 65 nanometer tools.

現在如果你問，那是什麼——它對下一季有什麼影響。顯然，當我們有代工客戶時，他們不會預訂相同級別的 1400 和 1700。他們還將製作書籍中間關鍵層工具，即 KrF。這意味著 ASP 將會下降，因為它更多地受到代工廠的影響。除非擁有 45 奈米和 65 奈米工具，否則代工廠不會如此積極地訂購。

In other terms, they will be more KrF in the first half of the year before we kick in the 1700. So you cannot think that the ASP is nicely increasing quarter to quarter now. It is going to be a bit bumpy until the 1700 goes back in and start moving ASP up. So be cautious with your model here. It is a bit complicated (inaudible).

換句話說，在我們進入 1700 之前，他們在今年上半年將會有更多的 KrF。因此，您不能認為 ASP 現在正在逐季度穩定成長。在 1700 重新回到並開始提高 ASP 之前，情況會有些坎坷。因此，請謹慎對待您的模型。這有點複雜（聽不清楚）。

Mr. Mandries (ph), Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的曼德里斯先生 (音譯，Mandries) 。

Two questions if I may. Firstly, in terms of your -- the immersion tool for next year, your 20 to 25 range, is that purely on the XT-1700, or is that also incorporating XT-1400 as well?

我可以問兩個問題。首先，就您明年的浸入式工具而言，您的 20 到 25 系列是純粹基於 XT-1700，還是也包含 XT-1400？

It is mainly 1700.

主要是1700。

Mainly -- you are 80, 90% 1700 and the remaining being 1400?

主要是──你們80、90%是1700，剩下的是1400？

Yes.

是的。

Secondly, we know that the XT-1700 for the 45 nanometer node there is one other customer out there who is currently at 65, and we would assume 45 over the medium term in the logic microprocessor space. Are they in that sort of forecast for 20, 25 or would that be an additional customer if they were to order for the 1700?

其次，我們知道，對於 45 奈米節點的 XT-1700，還有另一個客戶，目前數量為 65，我們假設在中期內邏輯微處理器領域的數量為 45。他們是否對 20、25 有這樣的預測，或者如果他們訂購 1700 輛，那是否會成為額外的客戶？

Those guys are in the 23 forecast.

這些人都在 23 號預測之列。

In the 20 to 25.

在20到25之間。

20 to 25, yes.

20 到 25，是的。

So the flash -- narrow flash chip makers plus the one microprocessor guy has already incorporated in the 20, 25 range?

那麼快閃記憶體——窄快閃晶片製造商加上一個微處理器製造商已經將範圍擴大到 20、25 了嗎？

Yes, certainly.

是的，當然。

Last question, if I may, is for the KrF tool, the XT-760 and the XT-860, could you give an idea roughly of the bookings you expect for next year and their lead times?

最後一個問題，如果可以的話，對於 KrF 工具 XT-760 和 XT-860，您能否大致介紹一下您預計明年的訂單量及其交貨時間？

It is much too early. This is now the granularity of our budget process, and I don't think we can even with any good certainty give you a feeling.

現在還太早。這就是我們預算流程的具體細節，我認為我們甚至無法非常確定地給你一種感覺。

But lead times I could say we have a clear target for six months, so we're not going to exceed six months.

但我可以說我們的交貨時間是六個月的明確目標，所以我們不會超過六個月。

Six months on both the 760 and the 860?

760 和 860 都是六個月？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And I guess, if I can, one last question. On the SG&A and R&D is that -- the change you're expecting in the lowering of SG&A and increasing R&D, is that on absolute terms or --?

如果可以的話，我想問最後一個問題。關於銷售、一般及行政費用及研發費用，您預期銷售、一般及行政費用會降低而研發費用會增加，這是絕對值嗎？

Absolute terms.

絕對條款。

Absolute terms. Thank you, guys.

絕對條款。謝謝你們。

Jim Fontinalli (ph) of Rater (ph).

Rater (ph) 的 Jim Fontinalli (ph)。

Just wondering, within the backlog two memory customers that you report, whether you can give a little more granularity as to the split between DRAM and NAND? I know some of your customers will be doing both, but I guess you will have a pretty specific idea about what lines you are shipping into?

只是想知道，在您報告的兩個積壓記憶體客戶中，您是否可以更詳細地說明 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的劃分？我知道您的一些客戶會同時做這兩種事情，但我想您對要運送到哪條航線會有非常具體的想法吧？

It is a bit complicated here to say. But again the truth is that flash is now clearly ahead of DRAM in terms of the R&D development. But do they do separate R&D development, is it right? In fact, at this moment surprisingly we only talk about logic and flash (indiscernible). In fact today we have a conference with Advanced Technologies (indiscernible). And clearly you talk about an R&D for flash or you talk about an R&D for logic, some how DRAM kind of gets lost into this. In fact, I suppose they are just behind the flash guy.

這裡說起來有點複雜。但事實是，就研發發展而言，快閃記憶體現在明顯領先 DRAM。但他們是否進行單獨的研發，對嗎？事實上，令人驚訝的是，此時我們只談論邏輯和閃光（音訊不清晰）。事實上，今天我們與先進科技公司（音訊不清晰）舉行了一次會議。顯然，您談論的是快閃記憶體的研發，或是邏輯的研發，但 DRAM 卻不知為何迷失在其中。事實上，我猜他們就在閃電俠後面。

May I refer Jim to the presentation of last quarter, where I think we had a shrink road map on there of many of our customers, where you clearly saw that flash customers where the most aggressive, or rather flash products were most aggressive in the shrink road map. It is also logical to assume that that is where the biggest drive will be for that product.

我可以向 Jim 介紹上個季度的演示，我認為我們為許多客戶制定了縮小路線圖，您可以清楚地看到閃存客戶是最積極的，或者更確切地說，閃存產品在縮小路線圖中是最積極的。也可以合理地假設，那裡將是該產品的最大推動力。

It would be fair to assume that over 50% of the backlog is going to be exposed to NAND, but for production and preproduction R&D?

可以合理地假設超過 50% 的積壓訂單將涉及 NAND，但對於生產和預生產研發呢？

No.

不。

No.

不。

No, because R&D, in fact, as we said -- one of you asked a question whether some guys who have flash and logic are buying one or two machines. And most of them are buying two machines. So that means even if the logic will develop later, or the logic will take less units, they also I think the development at the same time. So in our R&D backlog, although flash is going to run probably faster and with a higher volume, that would be in the second wave of 1700. But in the first wave of 1700, you will have a -- I don't know where the percentage is but clearly not the level that you would expect in production.

不，因為研發，事實上，正如我們所說的 - 你們中有人問過一個問題，一些擁有閃存和邏輯的人是否正在購買一台或兩台機器。而且大部分都是買兩台機器。這意味著，即使邏輯稍後會發展，或者邏輯需要更少的單位，我也認為它們會同時發展。因此，在我們的研發積壓中，儘管快閃記憶體可能會運行得更快、容量更大，但那將是 1700 的第二波。但在第一波 1700 中，你會看到——我不知道百分比是多少，但顯然不是你在生產中期望的水平。

And although in our backlog, 56% of our backlog value is memory customers, it is very much also a very rich mix between 1400 and 1700. So it is 65 nanometer tools and 45 nanometer tools. And definitely customers that are more focused on DRAM are also ordering the 65 nanometer tool. So it is it not only in exposure to the most leading edge, it is broad based in DRAM and in flash, both addressing you could say the -- I would say R&D needs in the DRAM area and the R&D needs in the flash area, and also addressing the first capacity needs for those leading edge products.

儘管在我們的積壓訂單中，56% 的積壓訂單價值來自記憶體客戶，但 1400 到 1700 之間的組合也非常豐富。因此它是65奈米工具和45奈米工具。當然，更關注 DRAM 的客戶也在訂購 65 奈米工具。因此，它不僅接觸最前沿的技術，還廣泛涉及 DRAM 和閃存，既解決了 DRAM 領域的研發需求，也解決了快閃記憶體領域的研發需求，同時也解決了這些前沿產品的首批容量需求。

Costa Egan (ph) with LB.

Costa Egan（ph）與 LB。

I just need some help for modeling your immersion order intake during the year. Is it right that you shipped two immersion tools in Q3?

我只是需要一些幫助來為您全年的沉浸式訂單量建模。你們在第三季交付了兩款浸入式工具，對嗎？

Yes, we shipped two immersion tools in Q3. Yes.

是的，我們在第三季推出了兩款沉浸式工具。是的。

And you said earlier in the call that you booked 8 and had a backlog of 10?

您之前在通話中說過，您預訂了 8 個，但積壓了 10 個？

No, we booked -- yes, we booked 8 in immersion, yes.

不，我們預訂了——是的，我們預訂了 8 個沉浸式體驗，是的。

And if I remember right at the end of -- in July during the last call you said you had your backlog run 7 or 8 systems?

如果我沒記錯的話，在 7 月底的上次通話中，您說您的積壓工作有 7 或 8 個系統？

One of these numbers you give me is incorrect.

您給我的這些數字中有一個是錯誤的。

We may have said it, or we may have -- I don't know. I don't remember. Sorry for that.

我們可能已經說過了，或者我們可能——我不知道。我不記得了。很抱歉。

Perhaps you could follow up with the (indiscernible).

也許你可以跟進一下（音訊不清晰）。

That's fair enough. Thank you.

這很公平。謝謝。

Mr. Van Gogh (ph), Exxon BNP (ph).

梵谷先生（音譯），埃克森美孚法國國家銀行（音譯）。

Just a clarification on the previous question. Did you also put NOR flash in memory?

只是對上一個問題進行澄清。你也將NOR閃存放入記憶體了嗎？

NOR flash is in memory, yes, of course.

NOR flash 位於記憶體中，是的，當然。

Also can you give us guidance for service revenue in the current quarter? Can we assume flat?

另外，您能否為我們提供本季服務收入的指引？我們可以假設平坦嗎？

What we have always said is the concert (ph) revenue with basically billable contract hours based on the contract with our customers is about 50 million a quarter. And then the range of the field options, which is a very bumpy business, is between 15 and 30 million a quarter. So you did 74 million in Q3. We did 83 million in Q2. And I think we did high 60s in Q1. So that is where -- the average is around 70, 74, 75 a quarter.

我們一直說的是，根據我們與客戶的合同，音樂會（ph）收入（基本上可計費合約小時數）每季約為 5000 萬美元。然後，場外選擇權的範圍（這是一項非常不穩定的業務）每季在 1500 萬到 3000 萬之間。所以你們在第三季的銷量是 7400 萬。我們在第二季的銷量為 8,300 萬。我認為我們在第一季的成績達到了 60 多分。所以平均每季約 70、74、75。

Operator, I think we have time for one more.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再做一件事。

Mr. Sheera, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Sheera 先生。

Just a quick question just referring back to your earlier comments about 13% EBIT margin on a shipment base of 39 systems. And two quarters ago you were giving us an update as to how you were lowering the breakeven within the Company. How far are you along the curve flowing from the 130 units (indiscernible) breakeven that you said previously, say, along towards the 100 units that have been often quoted as a target?

這只是一個簡單的問題，只是參考您先前關於 39 個系統的出貨量基礎上 13% 的息稅前利潤率的評論。兩個季度前，您向我們介紹如何降低公司內部的損益平衡點。您沿著從您之前所說的 130 個單位（音頻不清晰）盈虧平衡點到經常被引用為目標的 100 個單位的曲線走了多遠？

I think what I said, and we will continue with the same concept, is now the good news is we're not looking at breakeven anymore, we're looking at 5%, maybe a minimum of (indiscernible) return. And you have seen that we are above that significantly at 530 million of sales. And you have heard me also now not talk about unit anymore, but the dollar of sales which is more realistic.

我認為我所說的，以及我們將繼續堅持同樣的理念，現在的好消息是我們不再關注盈虧平衡，我們關注的是 5%，也許是最低的（音頻不清晰）回報。你已經看到，我們的銷售額大幅超過了這個數字，達到了 5.3 億。你們也聽到了，我現在不再談論單位，而是談論更現實的銷售額。

So you could assume that you can start calculating the breakeven or either the 5% fully breakeven to be significantly under 500. I think it is a better way of talking now because the ASP is so high or can change. And the good news, however, in our modeling is our margin is not significantly different by ASPs in some ways. Even if we sell a product at 12 million, or we sell a product at 24, the percentage margin is not that different. So you could use the dollar now as a way to make a proxy of the breakeven.

因此，您可以假設您可以開始計算損益平衡點，或 5% 的完全損益平衡點遠低於 500。我認為現在這是一種更好的談論方式，因為 ASP 太高或可能會改變。然而，在我們的模型中，好消息是我們的利潤率在某些方面並沒有因 ASP 而產生顯著差異。即使我們以 1,200 萬的價格銷售產品，或以 2,400 萬的價格銷售產品，利潤率的百分比也不會有太大差別。因此，您現在可以使用美元作為實現損益平衡的一種代理方式。

Now you've got two types of breakeven. One is a short-term breakeven, one is a long-term breakeven. We have -- what that means -- that means how much we can get cost out of our business if we discover a long-term trend down, and that we have a significant value utilization of our cost structure. We can take easily 20% out, 25% out of our fixed cost through the fact that we are using a significant amount of subcontractors. That is a long-term breakeven.

現在您有兩種類型的損益平衡。一個是短期損益平衡，一個是長期損益平衡。這意味著，如果我們發現長期下降趨勢，我們可以從業務中節省多少成本，並且我們的成本結構具有顯著的價值利用率。透過使用大量分包商，我們可以輕鬆減少 20% 到 25% 的固定成本。這是一個長期的損益平衡點。

On the short term which is management decision. We do this or not. And you'll see us over time looking at the total picture and the total cycle before we would use our 20, 25% cost reduction method, which has of course an impact on the future.

短期而言，這是管理決策。我們做或不做這件事。您會發現，在使用 20% 到 25% 的成本削減方法之前，我們會隨著時間的推移觀察整體情況和整個週期，這當然會對未來產生影響。

Operator, I think we are prepared to shut the call.

接線員，我想我們準備結束通話了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML third quarter 2005 conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2005 年第三季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。