艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2006 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the ASML 2006 second quarter results conference call on July 19, 2006. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Tom McGuire. Go ahead please, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎參加 2006 年 7 月 19 日 ASML 2006 年第二季業績電話會議。 [操作員指示]。現在我想把電話轉給湯姆·麥奎爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and good morning. This is Tom McGuire, Head of Communications at ASML. Welcome to our Investor and Media call and webcast. The subject is ASML’s 2006 second quarter results, according to U.S. GAAP. Here with me are Chief Executive Officer, Eric Meurice, and Chief Financial Officer, Peter Wennink.

下午好，早安。我是 ASML 通訊主管湯姆‧麥奎爾 (Tom McGuire)。歡迎參加我們的投資者和媒體電話會議和網路廣播。主題是 ASML 2006 年第二季業績（根據美國公認會計準則）。和我一起的還有執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長 Peter Wennink。

ASML draws your attention to the message on today’s press release regarding forward-looking statements. This call will be 60 minutes. On our website, at asml.com, you can find our press release, a brief presentation and financial reporting with figures in U.S. GAAP and in IFRS. And now, ASML’s CEO Eric Meurice will speak.

ASML 提請您注意今天的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的資訊。本次通話將持續 60 分鐘。在我們的網站 asml.com 上，您可以找到我們的新聞稿、簡短介紹和包含美國數據的財務報告。GAAP 和 IFRS。現在，ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 將發表講話。

Thank you, Tom. Good afternoon and good morning, and thank you all for attending our conference call. There are three main points which I would like to underline before answering your questions with Peter.

謝謝你，湯姆。下午好，早安，感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。在回答您和 Peter 的問題之前，我想強調三點。

First of all, our capability to execute. As you can see from our Q2 results, we have again executed very well on key measurements of performance -- growth, profitability and cash. We increased sales by 50% compared to the previous quarter, and by 23% compared to a year ago. We have been able to develop this growth by delivering to the needs of our traditional customers, but also through market share gains, in particular in technology development.

首先，我們的執行能力。從我們的第二季業績可以看出，我們在業績的關鍵指標——成長、獲利能力和現金——上再次表現非常出色。與上一季相比，我們的銷售額成長了 50%，與去年同期相比成長了 23%。我們不僅能夠滿足傳統客戶的需求，還能透過市場份額的增加（特別是在技術開發方面）來實現這一成長。

In terms of profitability, we delivered record operating profit at 25.2% of sales and record net profit at 17.7% of sales. In terms of cash, we generated €330m from operations in Q2, while we used €253m for our share buyback program. As of today, we have bought back 25.5m shares worth €400m, representing 5.25% of outstanding shares. This completes the share buyback program which we announced in April. So again, on the first point, we are satisfied to have been able to deliver solid and consistent results.

在獲利能力方面，我們實現了創紀錄的營業利潤，佔銷售額的25.2%，創紀錄的淨利潤，佔銷售額的17.7%。就現金而言，我們第二季的營運產生了 3.3 億歐元，而我們的股票回購計畫使用了 2.53 億歐元。截至今天，我們已回購了 2,550 萬股，價值 4 億歐元，佔流通股的 5.25%。這完成了我們在四月宣布的股票回購計畫。因此，再次強調，關於第一點，我們對能夠取得紮實、一致的成果感到滿意。

My second point relates to ASML’s technology leadership. Q2 was an important quarter, confirming our market leading immersion technology as we brought eight XT:1700i immersion systems to market, bringing the total number of immersion systems shipped to date by ASML to 21.

我的第二點與 ASML 的技術領導有關。第二季度是一個重要的季度，我們向市場推出了 8 套 XT:1700i 浸沒式系統，證實了我們市場領先的浸沒式技術，使 ASML 迄今為止出貨的浸沒式系統總數達到 21 套。

While some of the XT:1700i systems installed during Q2 are already exposing wafers, customers are in parallel reporting continuous progress on immersion processing, and in particular reaching stable and low defect density. This significant progress means that customers using ASML immersion technology will be able to begin volume production at the 45 or 55 nanometer node as early as Q4 this year, or Q1 2007.

雖然第二季安裝的一些 XT:1700i 系統已開始曝光晶圓，但客戶同時報告浸沒式處理方面不斷取得進展，特別是達到穩定和低缺陷密度。這項重大進展意味著，採用 ASML 浸沒式技術的客戶將能夠最早在今年第四季或 2007 年第一季開始大量生產 45 或 55 奈米節點。

To build on this lead, we also announced at SEMI West last week in San Francisco, the introduction of our TWINSCAN XT:1900i, the semiconductor industry’s most advanced lithography system. We will start shipping in Q2 2007, and will enable volume production at 40 nanometer node, with the industry’s highest wafer throughput of 131 wafer [inaudible].

為了鞏固這一領先地位，我們也在上週於舊金山舉行的 SEMI West 上宣布推出半導體行業最先進的光刻系統 TWINSCAN XT:1900i。我們將於 2007 年第二季開始出貨，並實現 40 奈米節點的大量生產，實現業界最高的 131 片晶圓的產量 [聽不清楚]。

In view of our significant scale, and the favorable financial performance, ASML will continue to invest further in R&D, allowing us to accelerate the deliveries of leading edge technology, high throughput and low cost [ownership] systems. To this end, we have decided to raise our R&D expenditure to €100m in the third quarter of 2006.

鑑於我們龐大的規模和良好的財務業績，ASML 將繼續在研發方面進一步投資，使我們能夠加快交付尖端技術、高吞吐量和低成本（所有權）系統。為此，我們決定在2006年第三季將研發支出提高到1億歐元。

Finally, my third point will address the state of the semiconductor industry. As we have articulated in the past, the industry is maturing, in particular as it is driven by the dynamics of five different demand segments, namely DRAM, Flash, IDM, Foundry and the R&D segment. These five different demand segments each target multiple and product segments, and therefore work on different individual cycles, which results, on average in shorter and milder overall global industrial cycles.

最後，我的第三點將討論半導體產業的現況。正如我們過去所闡述的，該行業正在日趨成熟，特別是受到五個不同需求領域的動態驅動，即 DRAM、Flash、IDM、Foundry 和研發領域。這五個不同的需求細分市場分別針對多個產品細分市場，因此作用於不同的單獨週期，從而平均導致全球整體工業週期更短、更溫和。

At this point we see a build-up of Flash capacity, a relatively strong DRAM market, and a sustained IDM and Foundry business. At the same time, the investment in [virgin] infrastructure boosts R&D equipment sales. The different segment dynamics, just to summarize, are reflected in our Q2 billings and our Q2 bookings of 93 systems, as well as in Q3 bookings guidance, which is above 62 units.

目前，我們看到 Flash 產能不斷增加、DRAM 市場相對強勁，IDM 和 Foundry 業務持續發展。同時，對原始基礎設施的投資促進了研發設備的銷售。總而言之，不同的細分市場動態反映在我們的第二季帳單和第二季 93 個系統的預訂中，以及第三季預訂指引（超過 62 個單位）。

Together, this confirms the strong outlook sustained by three drivers, three growth drivers. First, the build-up of litho capacity resulting from the shipments of litho machines and future shipments, which are in the bookings, will cover adequately the semiconductor growth projected by most industry analysts, which is currently at about 10% in value, and 15% in units year to year, year 2005 versus year 2006.

整體而言，這證實了由三大驅動力、三大成長動力所支撐的強勁前景。首先，光刻機的出貨量和未來的出貨量（已在預訂中）將帶來光刻產能的提升，這將充分滿足大多數行業分析師預測的半導體增長需求，目前，2006 年半導體產值同比增長約 10%，出貨量同比增長 15%（2005 年與 2006 年相比）。

The second driver is the targeted build-up for Flash memory, which as you know grows much faster than the average market, and requires significant capacity in place for the booming 2007 demand.

第二個驅動因素是快閃記憶體的目標成長，眾所周知，快閃記憶體的成長速度遠快於平均市場，並且需要大量的產能來滿足 2007 年蓬勃發展的需求。

And the third driver is ASML’s continuous market share growth, particularly in the Taiwanese DRAM industry and in Japan, but also through a successful ramp of the XT:400 i-line non-critical layer product, and of course in the immersion segment.

第三個驅動因素是 ASML 的市佔率持續成長，特別是在台灣 DRAM 產業和日本，同時也得益於 XT:400 i-line 非關鍵層產品的成功提升，當然還有浸沒式微影領域。

So in summary, strong execution, strengthened technology leadership and a sustained growth, thanks to a significant and multiple source, market share gain. Now, Peter and I will be able to take your questions. Thank you.

總而言之，由於多方面因素的顯著作用和市場份額的成長，我們實現了強勁的執行力、強化的技術領導地位和持續的成長。現在，彼得和我可以回答你們的問題了。謝謝。

When asking a question, please identify yourself and your organization. Please ask one question and limit to a short, short follow-on question. Can we have the first question please?

提問時，請表明您的身分和您所在的組織。請提出一個問題，並將其限制為一個簡短的後續問題。我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. The first question is from Mr. Sheera. Please state your company name, followed by your question, sir.

[操作員指示]。第一個問題來自 Sheera 先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, gentlemen. It’s Nav Sheera calling from Lehman Brothers. I’ve just got a question just with regard to your lead times, because for a long time you have been focusing on reduction of your lead time program. I just wanted to have any further details with regard to that, especially as the majority of your shipments are now TWINSCAN-based products? Thank you.

非常感謝。先生們，下午好。我是雷曼兄弟公司的 Nav Sheera 打來的。我只是想問一下你們的交貨時間，因為長期以來你們一直致力於縮短交貨時間計劃。我只是想了解有關這方面的更多詳細信息，特別是因為你們的大部分貨物現在都是基於 TWINSCAN 的產品？謝謝。

Yes, Nav, lead time, as you know [inaudible]. We have now in place a shift program which allows us to work seven days a week, 24 hours a day, and we are working on the specific cycle [inaudible] time reduction in manufacturing. That has allowed us to shrink our average lead time from nine months to six months. And at this moment, I would say, standard lead time of six months for production of mature machines.

是的，Nav，交貨時間，如你所知[聽不清楚]。我們現在已經實施了輪班計劃，可以每週 7 天、每天 24 小時工作，並且我們正在致力於縮短製造過程中的特定週期 [聽不清楚] 時間。這使得我們的平均交貨時間從九個月縮短到六個月。目前，我想說，成熟機器的生產標準交付週期為六個月。

Thank you for that, and just a quick follow-up, in terms of [terms] opportunity, can you give us the order of magnitude or number of units that you believe you could have as terms business for the fourth quarter, which isn’t on your backlog as of today? Thanks.

謝謝你，我只是想快速跟進一下，就[條款]機會而言，你能否告訴我們你認為第四季度條款業務可以擁有的數量級或單位數量，而截至今天，這些業務還不在你的積壓訂單中？謝謝。

Terms business, as you know, and you’ve seen in Q4, Q1 and also in Q2, we had terms business a factor of five to ten per quarter. The way to do terms, basically, which is getting an order and shipment at the same time in the same quarter, the way to do this, knowing that you have a lead time on average of six months, it means that you have already prepared certain numbers of modules that then we will rush into as final assembly later in the quarter.

如您所知，條款業務，您在第四季度、第一季和第二季都看到，我們的條款業務每季成長了 5 到 10 倍。基本上，這樣做的方式就是在同一季度同時獲得訂單和發貨，這樣做的方式是，知道你平均有六個月的交貨時間，這意味著你已經準備好了一定數量的模組，然後我們將在本季度晚些時候趕到最終組裝。

So the ability to do terms is in fact the ability for us to forecast the appropriate sub-assemblies and, of course, having some customer demand. Today our performance has been over the past nine months or year, the performance has been very good. As you can see, nearly 10% of our business, in fact, was made on terms.

因此，制定條款的能力其實就是我們預測適當的子組件的能力，當然，也包括一些客戶需求的能力。今天我們的表現跟過去九個月或一年來的表現相比，表現已經非常好了。如您所見，事實上，我們的近 10% 的業務都是按條款達成的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Gaudois. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

下一個問題來自 Gaudois 先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi, Nicolas Gaudois of Deutsche Bank. First question, Eric, on operating margins at 25.2%, from my recollection is the highest level for ASML post [SVG], and I’d have to go back to the 90s or 2000 to actually read that. Would you quantify this is probably as much as a business model can generate in the current cycle? Or should we actually revisit the business model going forward?

是的，你好，我是德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。第一個問題，艾瑞克，25.2% 的營業利潤率，據我記憶，是 ASML 離開 [SVG] 後的最高水平，我得回到 90 年代或 2000 年才能真正讀到這個數字。您能否量化一下，這可能是目前週期內商業模式所能產生的利益？或者我們實際上應該重新審視未來的商業模式？

I will leave that one -- that difficult question to Peter.

我將把這個難題留給彼得來解決。

Thanks. Thanks for the difficult one. The issue is that we have said in the past also what we want to do is leverage our operating costing base, which is R&D and SG&A. As you have seen, we have kept SG&A flat in absolute terms, and yes, we are spending more on R&D as the percentage of sales is going down.

謝謝。謝謝你這個困難的問題。問題是，我們過去也曾說過，我們想要做的是利用我們的營運成本基礎，即研發費用和銷售、一般及行政費用。如您所見，我們的銷售、一般及行政開支（SG&A）絕對值保持平穩，是的，隨著銷售額佔比的下降，我們在研發方面的支出正在增加。

Also we have said that we are targeting at a 40% gross margin, but with the control of the operating expenses we’re currently seeing, basically leveraging our operating expense base to generate more sales. That will have a positive effect on the operating margin as you have seen.

我們也說過，我們的目標是實現 40% 的毛利率，但透過控制目前的營運費用，基本上可以利用我們的營運費用基礎來創造更多的銷售額。如您所見，這將對營業利潤率產生積極影響。

So the increase in top-line will lead at 40% to an absolute higher gross margin, given the statements I’ve just made on containment of the operating expenses. That means that on the assumption that we can grow the top line, there is still room to improve on the operating margin line.

因此，根據我剛才關於控制營運費用的聲明，營業收入的成長將帶來 40% 的絕對更高的毛利率。這意味著，假設我們能夠增加營業收入，那麼營業利潤率仍有提升的空間。

Okay, great, but 25%, Peter, for full, let’s say, tick-over cycle here is a relatively deep level, do you think or? I’m really talking about the medium-term here of course, not --

好的，很好，但是 25%，彼得，對於完整的，比如說，這裡的怠速循環是一個相對較深的水平，你認為呢？當然，我在這裡談論的是中期，而不是——

It depends on the sales, Nicolas. It depends on the sales. If we could have done more sales this quarter, we would have had a higher operating margin.

這取決於銷售情況，尼古拉斯。這取決於銷售情況。如果我們本季的銷售額能夠增加，我們的營業利潤率就會更高。

Okay, fair enough. And mostly a strategy question, you just hinted, Eric, I think, that you’re accelerating the release of a new platform for, I’m assuming, either double exposure or EUV, and working on making this a bit more affordable? You just leapfrog, effectively, Nikon with the 1900i. Is that then effectively to accelerate the rollout of a platform replacing the TWINSCAN altogether?

好吧，夠公平。這主要是一個戰略問題，埃里克，你剛剛暗示說，你正在加速發布一個新平台，我猜是雙重曝光或 EUV，並且努力讓它更便宜一些？您實際上已經超越了擁有 1900i 的尼康。那麼，這是否可以有效加速推出一個完全取代 TWINSCAN 的平台？

Certainly. We think the industry is evolving in two directions. One is an acceleration of the transitions to new technologies, so we expect, in fact, the rate of change to evolve from an 18-month transition period node-to-node to probably 12-month.

當然。我們認為該行業正在朝兩個方向發展。一是向新技術轉變的加速，因此我們預計，事實上，變化的速度將從18個月的節點到節點過渡期演變為大概12個月。

And then the second dimension is that we expect the multiple segments of this industry -- DRAM, Flash, IDM, Foundry -- to have different needs for products, in particular, when you overlay on these different segments’ needs with the new technologies that are being now developed like spacer technology in [inaudible], vertical gate transistors, three dimensional transistors, etc, etc. So these things will require multiple different architectures to address most effectively each of those new ways of designing chips.

第二個維度是，我們預期這個產業的多個部分——DRAM、Flash、IDM、Foundry——對產品有不同的需求，特別是當你將這些不同部分的需求與現在正在開發的新技術（如[聽不清楚]中的間隔物技術、垂直閘極電晶體、三維電晶體等）疊加在一起時。因此，這些事情將需要多種不同的架構來最有效地解決每種新的晶片設計方法。

Therefore, putting more money in R&D will allow us to accelerate those platforms and to multiply the numbers of platforms to address most effectively each of those, I would say, sub-technologies. So yes, this is for us an opportunity because only a very large investment allows a success in this strategy. And as you know, at this moment, we are the ones able to invest the most in R&D.

因此，在研發上投入更多資金將使我們能夠加速這些平台的發展，並增加平台的數量，以最有效地解決每一個子技術。所以是的，這對我們來說是一個機會，因為只有非常大的投資才能讓這個策略成功。正如你們所知，目前我們是能夠在研發方面投入最多的公司。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Brenier. Please state your company name, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自布雷尼爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon. It’s Thomas Brenier from Societe Generale. I’d like to have a bit more detail on the immersion tools that you’ve shipped over the quarter, if you just could give us an indication of the average selling price of these tools?

是的，下午好。我是法國興業銀行的托馬斯·布雷尼爾。我想了解更多關於你們在本季度交付的浸入式工具的詳細信息，能否請您告訴我們這些工具的平均售價是多少？

I’d also like to know if you are still preparing for more than 20, 25 shipments this year? And if you have a bit more idea than two months ago on the number of immersion units that you would be able to ship next year?

我還想知道今年您是否還在準備超過 20 批、25 批的貨物？與兩個月前相比，您是否對明年能夠發貨的浸入式設備數量有了更多的了解？

Okay, this is a tough question. The first question is giving the average price of the current 1700 is about €25m. The list price is €29.5m. The forecast for this year is still between 20 and 25 units, so that we are fairly consistent. We’ve announced this, I think, six months ago.

好吧，這是一個棘手的問題。第一個問題是，目前 1700 的平均價格約為 2500 萬歐元。標價2950萬歐元。今年的預測仍然在 20 到 25 個單位之間，因此我們相當一致。我想，我們六個月前就已經宣布了這一點。

The development of the customers are going, I would say, ahead of plan, or very well. We have, or you may have heard already, some customers publicly talking about better yield in immersion processes than in dry processing, and that is a very important milestone to get the whole industry to jump into volume production. So yes, we are confirming those ramps of volume production to start in Q4 ’06 or Q1 ’07.

我想說，客戶的發展正在提前完成計劃，或者說進展非常順利。您可能已經聽說過，有些客戶公開談論過浸入式製程比乾式製程的產量更高，這是整個產業進入批量生產階段的一個非常重要的里程碑。是的，我們確認量產將於 2006 年第四季或 2007 年第一季開始。

At this moment, we have clearly identified eight customers who will be ramping volume, and as I said last time, there is another seven, basically, to total the 15 which are still working on ramping some scaled immersion processing in 2007. How many tools is a bit too early to say, but we are very optimistic, or comfortable, with our market share.

目前，我們已經明確確定了 8 個將擴大產量的客戶，而且正如我上次所說的，還有另外 7 個，總共 15 個客戶仍在致力於在 2007 年擴大一些規模浸入式處理。現在談論有多少工具還為時過早，但我們對我們的市場份額非常樂觀或滿意。

You think that this number will be higher than in 2006?

您認為這個數字會比2006年更高嗎？

Immersion --

沉浸式——

In ’07, I would say.

我想說是在 2007 年。

Again, we don’t want to give too much guidance on this, but obviously 2006 is an R&D year. 2007 is a production year.

再次強調，我們不想對此給予太多指導，但顯然 2006 年是研發年。 2007 年是生產年。

Okay, fair enough. Just a small one on your CapEx, which I think was quite small over the first half. I just wanted to understand if there’s any change in your thinking in terms of the CapEx suggested for this year, and maybe your normalized CapEx projected for the years to come?

好吧，夠公平。您的資本支出只是很小的一部分，我認為上半年的資本支出相當小。我只是想了解一下，您對今年建議的資本支出以及未來幾年預計的正常資本支出是否有任何變化？

I will leave it to Peter.

我將把它留給彼得。

Yes, CapEx this year will be around €90m, €90 to €95m, which has been around that level for the last few years. We don’t anticipate to change that level in 2006. Now, we’re constantly evaluating our capacity, the production capacity. And depending on our forecast of future needs, we might decide, or might not decide, to have some additional capacity, which would mean some extra square meters for the factory here in Veldhoven.

是的，今年的資本支出將在 9,000 萬歐元左右，9,000 萬至 9,500 萬歐元之間，過去幾年一直維持在這個水準。我們預計 2006 年這一水準不會改變。現在，我們正在不斷評估我們的產能和生產能力。根據我們對未來需求的預測，我們可能會決定或可能不決定增加一些產能，這意味著位於費爾德霍芬的工廠將增加一些面積。

Also, with the introduction of newer systems, which are more expensive systems, our CapEx debt will also consist of our own tools, which we’ll use for demo purposes and for prototyping. That will increase when the average selling price, or the average cost of those tools goes up going forward. So going forward over the next couple of years, we could see an increase of that €90m to €95m within 10% to 20%, but that does not include any, I’d say, major square meter capacity additions that we could add to the factory if we would need it.

此外，隨著新系統（更昂貴的系統）的推出，我們的資本支出債務也將包括我們自己的工具，我們將使用這些工具進行演示和原型設計。當這些工具的平均售價或平均成本上漲時，這個數字也會增加。因此，展望未來幾年，我們可能會看到這 9000 萬歐元增加到 9500 萬歐元，增幅在 10% 到 20% 之間，但我想說，這並不包括我們可以在需要時為工廠增加的任何大面積產能。

Thanks a lot, Peter.

非常感謝，彼得。

The next question is from Mr. Deahna. Please state your company name, followed by your question. Mr. Deahna, are you there?

下一個問題來自 Deahna 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。Deahna 先生，您在嗎？

Yes, can you hear me?

是的，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Nice quarter, guys. It’s Jay Deahna from JP Morgan. Just a couple of questions. First of all, it looks like you’re guiding orders to be down about 10 units or so in 3Q, but given the mix shift to immersion and whatnot, is there a probability that orders will be up sequentially in euros?

好的。大家，這個季度過得真不錯。我是摩根大通的傑伊‧迪阿納 (Jay Deahna)。僅有幾個問題。首先，看起來您預計第三季的訂單量將下降約 10 個單位，但考慮到產品組合轉向沉浸式體驗等，歐元訂單量是否有可能連續上升？

And then the second question is, it looks like you’re guiding for revenues to be down in 3Q. Is that correct? And is that seasonal or is that due to some sort of push-out activity?

第二個問題是，看起來您預計第三季的收入會下降。對嗎？這是季節性的還是由於某種推廣活動？

Regarding the bookings, we are always very cautious as to forecasting a mix. As you know, we are pretty good at calling the number itself, because we are working on certain numbers of projects. And yes, we are working on more projects than 62, but it always takes a bit of time to negotiate and finish, but you never know which one will be easier than the others.

關於預訂，我們總是非常謹慎地預測組合。如你所知，我們非常擅長計算數字本身，因為我們正在進行一定數量的專案。是的，我們正在進行的專案不只 62 個，但總是需要一些時間來協商和完成，但你永遠不知道哪一個會比其他的更容易。

Clearly, we expect Q3 to be the first quarter where we will book the 1900, and the 1900 is a high price, of course, higher than the 1700, already at €25m. So there is a fair probability that the ASP of these Q3 bookings will be higher than the average ASP of Q2 bookings.

顯然，我們預計第三季將是我們預訂 1900 的第一個季度，而 1900 的價格當然很高，高於 1700，目前已經達到 2500 萬歐元。因此，第三季訂單的平均售價很有可能高於第二季訂單的平均售價。

The guidance that we have taken for Q3 is a guidance, again which we could exceed in case terms were to happen, but again, we have not included this into the forecast because these are things, which as you may imagine, are pretty difficult to call.

我們對第三季採取的指導只是一個指導，如果出現情況，我們可能會超出這個指導，但同樣，我們沒有將其納入預測中，因為這些事情，正如你可能想像的那樣，很難預測。

This, however, whole picture, is still a picture of a strong Q2, Q3 and you can imagine, Q4 trend, if you look at these current, I mean the backlog that we have, which is 88% shippable within the next six months.

然而，從整體來看，這仍然是第二季度、第三季度強勁的表現，你可以想像，第四季度的趨勢是，如果你看一下當前的情況，我的意思是我們的積壓訂單，其中 88% 可在未來六個月內發貨。

Was my question on revenue correct? Are you guiding -- you’re guiding revenue-- It looks like, based on the slides in your presentation, you’re giving ASPs and you’re giving a unit outlook for shipments. If you add that up, it looks like revenues are down sequentially in 3Q. It sounds like you’re saying that you could upside that if you get some terms.

我關於收入的問題正確嗎？您正在指導 - 您正在指導收入 - 根據您簡報中的幻燈片，您似乎給出了 ASP 並且給出了出貨量的單位前景。如果把這些加起來，看起來第三季的營收是季減的。聽起來你的意思是，如果你得到一些條款，你就可以實現這一目標。

But generally speaking, given that your backlog is up coming out of Q2 and your revenue guidance looks like it’s slowed down a little bit, is that just conservative or is that impacted by summer seasonality, and possibly some push-outs? Have you seen any push-outs?

但總體而言，考慮到您的積壓訂單在第二季度即將增加，並且您的收入預期似乎有所放緩，這只是保守的，還是受到夏季季節性的影響，並且可能受到一些推遲的影響？您有看過任何推出的情況嗎？

Yes, I think you have a point. We do not -- I didn’t catch exactly your – the nature of your questions. We expect, in fact, Q2 to be on the same strong trend -- sorry, Q3 to be on the same strong trend as Q2.

是的，我認為你說得有道理。我們沒有──我沒有完全聽清你的問題的本質。事實上，我們預計第二季將呈現同樣強勁的趨勢——抱歉，第三季將呈現與第二季相同的強勁趨勢。

The seasonality is just the production schedule during the famous European tradition times which makes it a bit more difficult for us to plan more units. So clearly, zero push-outs from customers, and for us, it’s a very solid and booked quarter. So it is in the same vein as Q2 and for us, a major growth compared to last year, and showing sustained business for the year.

季節性只是著名的歐洲傳統時期的生產計劃，這使得我們計劃更多單位變得有點困難。顯然，客戶沒有推遲訂單，對我們來說，這是一個非常穩健且預訂滿滿的季度。因此，它與第二季度的情況相同，對於我們來說，與去年相比有了很大的成長，並且表明今年的業務持續成長。

Just a quick follow-on. In light of the fact that you’re seeing no push-outs, what’s your general feeling on this cycle? Is this a sustainable cycle that will drive higher CapEx next year? And given your immersion ramp, can ASML grow its revenues in a flat CapEx environment next year?

只是快速跟進。鑑於您沒有看到任何延遲的情況，您對這個週期的整體感覺如何？這是一個可持續的循環，會推動明年資本支出增加嗎？考慮到浸入式技術的提升，ASML 明年能否在平穩的資本支出環境下增加收入？

No, this is a very important question. This is the 2007 question, how do we see this evolving? Clearly, we usually do not [course] so long because we are trying to give you the factual data on the future. And as you have seen, our backlog is the most forward looking data that we have, which basically covers until the end of the year.

不，這是一個非常重要的問題。這是 2007 年的問題，我們又如何看待這項發展？顯然，我們通常不會花那麼長時間，因為我們試圖為您提供有關未來的事實數據。如您所見，我們的積壓數據是我們擁有的最具前瞻性的數據，基本上涵蓋到今年年底。

However, what we can quote you as factual data to understand a bit better 2007 is as follows. First, yes, we understand that some analysts see 2007 as a stable year, in terms of capital equipment. And I understand that most analysts would plan the 5% unit growth of semiconductors, but again, these are not our numbers. This is what we hear from the industry.

然而，我們可以引用以下事實數據，以便您更了解 2007 年的情況。首先，是的，我們知道一些分析師認為，從資本設備角度來看，2007 年是穩定的一年。我知道大多數分析師都會預測半導體的單位成長率為 5%，但這些不是我們的數字。這是我們從業界聽到的消息。

On those numbers, we feel optimistic going into 2007, because of our significant market share increase, which as you have seen in the press release, is multi-source. There is a market share increase in the customers that we have already acquired some time ago, but which now ramp production and volume. We have a market share increase in Japan. We have a market share increase in the lower end of our business, in i-line. And we have serious market share increase in the high end of the business, which is immersion.

根據這些數據，我們對 2007 年充滿信心，因為我們的市場份額將大幅增加，而且正如您在新聞稿中看到的，這是多來源的。我們之前已經獲得的客戶的市佔率有所增加，但現在他們的產量和銷售量都在增加。我們在日本的市佔率有所增加。我們在低端業務即 i-line 領域的市佔率有所增加。我們在高端業務，也就是沉浸式業務的市佔率大幅提升。

You add to this fairly large optimism about the introduction of the 1900i, a new machine which will probably also increase the value of this R&D segment as customers will want to develop their 40 nanometer load, and you add to this on a picture where we close 2006 with a good growth, but where we think the customers will have a good utilization rate from our current simulation. So yes, we feel optimistic that 2007 could be a very good year for ASML, in view of this market share strengthening and the technology leadership strengthening.

您對 1900i 的推出抱有相當大的樂觀態度，這款新機器可能也會增加這一研發部門的價值，因為客戶將希望開發他們的 40 奈米負載，此外，您還可以看到我們在 2006 年結束時實現了良好的增長，但我們認為從我們目前的模擬來看，客戶將獲得良好的利用率。因此，是的，鑑於市場份額和技術領先地位的加強，我們樂觀地認為 2007 年對 ASML 來說將是非常好的一年。

Does that answer your question, sir?

先生，這回答了您的問題嗎？

Next question, Operator, please.

接線員，請問下一個問題。

The next question is from Mr. Menzies. Please state your company name, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自孟席斯先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Good afternoon, gentlemen. This is Titus Menzies from Jefferies & Company. Can I ask you just two quick questions? Firstly, on the gross margin guidance, if we’re modeling in a capacity demand for i-line tools, XT:400 tool, end third quarter, shouldn’t Q3 gross margin be slightly higher than Q2, assuming that these machines have a better gross margin and no price cuts in the quarter?

先生們，下午好。我是 Jefferies & Company 的 Titus Menzies。我可以問您兩個簡單的問題嗎？首先，關於毛利率指導，如果我們對第三季末的 i-line 工具、XT:400 工具的產能需求進行建模，假設這些機器的毛利率更高並且本季度沒有降價，那麼第三季的毛利率是否應該略高於第二季？

Peter?

彼得？

Yes, I think there is no major difference between the gross margins on the different tools. We have worked very hard on the cost of goods reductions over the past few years, and has led to the situation that there is not a great deal of variance between the different tools that we are selling. So additional capacity income -- sorry, incremental shipments -- of any kind will not have a major impact on the gross margin guidance.

是的，我認為不同工具的毛利率沒有太大差異。過去幾年來，我們一直致力於降低商品成本，這使得我們銷售的不同工具之間的差異並不大。因此，任何形式的額外產能收入（抱歉，是增量出貨量）都不會對毛利率指引產生重大影響。

Okay, thank you. Secondly, there was a significant increase in the number of employees in the quarter. Could you just give some guidance of what regional or what part of business were they allocated towards?

好的，謝謝。其次，本季員工數量大幅增加。您能否提供一些指導，說明他們被分配到哪個區域或哪個業務部分？

Yes, that was two-fold. Service, because we are gaining market share, and we’re having new install bases at new places around the globe. And also to support the shift pattern in the factory that we have started with in February of this year. We need additional people to do the specific work in the shift patterns, so that means some additional people also.

是的，這是雙重的。服務，因為我們正在獲得市場份額，並且我們在全球新的地方擁有新的安裝基礎。同時也支持我們今年二月開始實行的工廠輪班模式。我們需要額外的人員來完成輪班模式中的具體工作，這意味著還需要一些額外的人員。

Okay, so it’s in one point in the production side and for services as well?

好的，那麼它在生產方面和服務方面也同樣如此嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And should remodeling for the services more closely to the €100m mark which we had in the quarter? Or is that where we should be looking at going forward?

並且，服務改造的支出是否應該更接近本季的 1 億歐元目標？或者說這是我們未來應該關注的領域？

No, that’s pretty lumpy. We’ve always guided on that, and I don’t want to change that. Our contract business is around €50m a quarter, and our options business, our field option business, can be between €20m and €30m a quarter. It was a bit higher than €30m in the second quarter. And also our contract business, we have some specific assignments from customers that led us to bill additionally in Q2. So the €75m to €80m a quarter is, you could say, average, which could peak to levels that we have seen in Q2.

不，那太不平整了。我們一直以此為指導，我不想改變這一點。我們的合約業務每季約為 5,000 萬歐元，而我們的選擇權業務（即現場選擇權業務）每季在 2,000 萬歐元至 3,000 萬歐元之間。第二季這一數字略高於 3000 萬歐元。還有我們的合約業務，我們有一些來自客戶的特定任務，這導致我們在第二季產生額外費用。因此，你可以說每季 7500 萬歐元至 8000 萬歐元是平均值，其高峰可能會達到我們在第二季看到的水平。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You’re welcome.

不客氣。

The next question is from Mr. Arcuri. Please state your company name, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自阿庫裡先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, it’s Citigroup. Two things. First of all, do you guys think that it’s a valid analysis to look at 200 millimeter equivalent systems that are booked by you relative to the number of chip units being sold? Because if you do that, we’re right back up to where we’ve been at a peak the last five years, five or seven years here. So do you think that that’s a valid analysis?

你好，我是花旗集團。兩件事。首先，你們認為，相對於銷售的晶片數量，查看你們預訂的 200 毫米等效系統是一個有效的分析嗎？因為如果你這樣做，我們就會回到過去五年、五年或七年的巔峰狀態。那麼您認為這是一個有效的分析嗎？

I think for this one, you may want to have discussions with the IR team about simulating different scenarios, but it’s very difficult to take what happened five years ago and try to replicate it on now. In fact, I must say, I may not have understood exactly your reasoning, but 200 millimeter for us at this moment now is a kind of legacy fab, and they have their [last] on their own.

我認為對於這一點，你可能想與 IR 團隊討論模擬不同的場景，但很難將五年前發生的事情複製到現在。事實上，我必須說，我可能沒有完全理解你的理由，但目前對我們來說，200 毫米是一種傳統的晶圓廠，他們有自己的[最後]。

You have a lot of customers trying to pull them in and remove them into China, etc, etc. You’ve got better productivity and when you do this then you need some additional 200 millimeter type machines to complement, basically, and everybody is moving on 300. So again, I’m a bit unsure, and I don’t think we want to take the time but I’m sure we’ll be interested to discuss the new model with you, because that helps us to understand future trends.

有很多客戶試圖將他們拉進來並轉移到中國等等。您的生產效率已經提高，當您這樣做時，您需要一些額外的 200 毫米類型的機器來補充，基本上，每個人都在朝著 300 毫米的方向發展。所以，我再次有點不確定，我認為我們不想花時間，但我確信我們有興趣與您討論新模型，因為這有助於我們了解未來趨勢。

Okay, and then I guess last thing quickly, in your comments you seemed to have a little bit more, maybe, cautious tone on memory than what we’ve heard from other vendors, and I’m wondering, was that a misread? You sounded like maybe some of the memory makers are adding capacity at a rate that might not be sustainable, in your view. Is that the wrong read?

好的，然後我想最後一件事是，在您的評論中，您在內存方面似乎比我們從其他供應商那裡聽到的更加謹慎，我想知道，這是誤讀嗎？您聽起來好像有些記憶體製造商正在以不可持續的速度增加產能。是不是讀錯了？

No, in fact I said -- well, yes, it is the wrong read. Last quarter I guess I was conservative in saying that we expect the DRAM business to be strong and the numbers of tools that we ship to the DRAM business is appropriate, and parallel to that. And I said that the Flash business is clearly booming as a lot of new entrants are attracted by this significant growth of this [business].

不，事實上我說的是──嗯，是的，這是錯誤的解讀。上個季度，我保守地說，我們預計 DRAM 業務將會強勁，我們向 DRAM 業務交付的工具數量是適當的，並且與此平行。我說過，Flash 業務顯然正在蓬勃發展，因為許多新進業者都被該業務的顯著成長所吸引。

I guess this year, the Flash business is probably going to grow by 180 or 200%. So these are significant segments, attracting a lot of new entrants, and new players. And any time you have new entrants and new players, you will have some duplicated capacity, I would say, which first we judge to be reasonable.

我估計今年 Flash 業務可能會成長 180% 或 200%。因此，這些都是重要的領域，吸引了大量新進入者和新參與者。我想說，任何時候有新進入者和新參與者，就會有一些重複的產能，我們先判斷這是合理的。

For us, it represents about, say, 10% of our total business, and second, that we consider as not so dangerous because even if there is a bit of over-capacity on Flash, Flash is growing so fast that we’ll be caught very quickly. So in other terms for us, this little over-heating of Flash is 10% of our business which is reasonable into the whole picture, and as I say, that may trigger, some time in ’07, a reduction of run-rate of Flash players, but not before time.

對我們來說，它大約占我們總業務的 10%；其次，我們認為這並不那麼危險，因為即使 Flash 有一點產能過剩，但 Flash 的成長速度非常快，我們很快就會趕上。所以對我們來說，Flash 的這種小幅過熱只占我們業務的 10%，從整體來看這是合理的，正如我所說，這可能會導致在 2007 年的某個時候 Flash 播放器運行率下降，但不會在此之前。

So are you saying that Flash orders are 10% of total, or that the over-ordering is 10%?

那麼，您是說 Flash 訂單佔總數的 10%，還是超額訂單佔 10%？

The over-ordering is -- well, when we say over-ordering, the ordering which is ahead of the curve.

過度排序是——好吧，當我們說過度排序時，指的是領先於曲線的排序。

Great, thanks a lot.

太好了，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Schafer. Please state your company name, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自謝弗先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, Simon Schafer from Goldman Sachs. I was wondering whether you could give an indication on the mix as far as order intake is concerned in the second half? It seems like the incremental upside this quarter is very much driven by some of your Asian customers, specifically memory, but also a mixture much more towards capacity buyers. Do you expect that to continue, and what should we deduct in terms of ASP progression on your order intake?

你好，我是高盛的西蒙謝弗。我想知道您是否可以透露一下下半年訂單量的情況？看起來本季的增量成長很大程度上是由一些亞洲客戶推動的，特別是記憶體客戶，但也更多地受到容量買家的推動。您預計這種情況會持續下去嗎？我們應該從您的訂單量中扣除多少 ASP 成長？

Yes, as I try all the time to avoid giving guidance on order intake, average ASP because the timing of receiving orders is very granulous from time cap in September/October and the difference of price between an i-line system at €35m and 1900 at more than €25m is going to make my guess difficult.

是的，我一直試圖避免對訂單量和平均售價給出指導，因為接收訂單的時間與 9 月/10 月的時間上限非常不同，而且 3500 萬歐元的 i-line 系統和 1900 系統之間的價格差異超過 2500 萬歐元，這將使我的猜測變得困難。

Regarding your first question, are the bookings that we’ve got, the famous 93 units, in fact is fairly spread. Flash, DRAM, the foundries, IDMs, difficult to give you a feeling of which segment would be a bit on the weak side of its seasonality, and which segment would be on the high side. They are all sustained, which is why you have seen our outlook is strong and our sales will be strong for the next six months or so.

關於您的第一個問題，我們收到的預訂量，著名的 93 套，實際上是相當分散的。快閃記憶體、DRAM、代工廠、IDM，很難讓您感覺到哪個部分的季節性會稍微弱一些，哪個部分的季節性會稍微強一些。它們都是持續的，這就是為什麼您看到我們的前景強勁，我們的銷售在未來六個月左右也會保持強勁。

Maybe I can ask in a different way. Would the run-rate of order intake for immersion continue at the same pace, and would that include 1900i’s in the second half?

也許我可以用不同的方式詢問。沉浸式設備的訂單量是否會以相同的速度持續成長，下半年是否會包含 1900i 的訂單？

The immersion order entry will accelerate. This will start partly in Q3 and Q4 order entry for immersion will be probably the highest.

浸入式訂單錄入將會加速。這將在第三季和第四季部分啟動，沉浸式訂單量可能會最高。

Thank you, and then just a follow-up on gross margin, I was a little surprised to see the 41 number creep into your press release. Historically you’ve sometimes mentioned that maybe at 40% you were maybe capped in order to maybe capture some share. Does this higher number, or this higher range signal that you’re becoming a little bit less aggressive on trying to capture more share?

謝謝，然後只是關於毛利率的後續問題，我有點驚訝地看到 41 這個數字出現在您的新聞稿中。從歷史上看，您有時會提到，也許 40% 的上限可能會讓您獲得一些份額。這個更高的數字或更高的範圍是否表明你們在爭取更多市場份額方面變得不那麼積極了？

Well, Simon, on that question, gross margin, what that actually indicates is that we’re pretty confident about the volume of our business, because the volume gives more leverage on the fixed cost in the factory, and that has a positive effect on the gross margin, and that’s what you see reflected.

嗯，西蒙，關於這個問題，毛利率，這實際上表明我們對業務量非常有信心，因為業務量為工廠的固定成本提供了更大的槓桿，這對毛利率有積極的影響，這就是你所看到的。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Menon. Please state your company name, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自梅農先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it’s Janardan Menon from Dresdner Kleinwort. Just a clarification on the previous answer, what is your total percentage of NAND Flash in the backlog? You’re saying 49% is memory. How much would be NAND Flash?

是的，我是 Dresdner Kleinwort 的 Janardan Menon。只是想澄清一下之前的答案，你們積壓的 NAND Flash 總百分比是多少？你說的 49% 是記憶。NAND Flash 多少錢？

I think it’s between 25% and 30%.

我認為是在 25% 到 30% 之間。

25% and 35%? So --

25% 和 35%？所以 -

It is a bit more than half. It is a bit more than half of the memory.

略多於一半。這比記憶體的一半多一點。

Okay. So but then you seem to be suggesting that if there is any over-heating or anything like that, it is in NAND Flash, because you’re saying there could be a 10% of orders are more than they should be, or to that extent, but given that your NAND Flash orders are roughly the same as Foundry, IDM, etc, I’m just wondering why you think that there is too much of NAND Flash and not too much of Foundry or IDM or DRAM?

好的。那麼，您似乎在暗示，如果存在任何過熱或類似情況，那就是在 NAND Flash 中，因為您說可能有 10％ 的訂單超出了應有的水平，或者達到那個程度，但考慮到您的 NAND Flash 訂單與 Foundry、IDM 等大致相同，我只是想知道為什麼您認為 NAND Flash 太多，而 Foundry、IDM 或 D？

Well, we have a fairly sophisticated simulation model which models how many tools will be necessary per segment, so the NAND Flash segment grows about 80% or 100% in units, and so we’re trying to model the numbers as of the square meters of silicon, etc, etc. And of course, you are talking about a high growth with a much smaller business.

嗯，我們有一個相當複雜的模擬模型，可以模擬每個部分需要多少工具，因此 NAND 快閃記憶體部分的單位增長約為 80% 或 100%，因此我們試圖模擬矽片平方米的數字等等。當然，您談論的是規模小得多的企業實現高成長。

So the numbers of tools required in DRAM to do the smaller growth, and the numbers are still required in Flash to do a much higher percentage growth, but sometimes is about the same, so I don’t have the model in front of me, but I can tell you we’re looking at, at the end, the square meters of silicon which are being built on the different technologies.

因此，DRAM 中實現較小增長所需的工具數量，以及 Flash 中實現更高百分比增長所需的工具數量，但有時大致相同，所以我面前沒有模型，但我可以告訴你，我們最終看到的是基於不同技術構建的矽片面積。

And just a small follow-up, and this is on your ARF ASP, if I just use your presentation, I think it’s on Slide 12, to calculate the ARF ASP on your shipments, both Q1 and Q2 after backing out the services revenue, I find that actually, it’s gone down a little bit, which is, it’s gone down from about 19.7m to 19.5m. Given that you shipped eight 1700i’s in the quarter, which you didn’t do in Q1, I was just wondering why the ASP is flat, effectively, it’s slightly down, and not rising in the quarter?

還有一點後續問題，這是關於您的 ARF ASP 的問題，如果我使用您的演示文稿，我認為它在第 12 張幻燈片上，來計算您的出貨量的 ARF ASP，在扣除服務收入後，第一季度和第二季度，我發現它實際上下降了一點，也就是從大約 1970 萬下降到了 1950 萬。鑑於您在本季度出貨了 8 台 1700i，而第一季沒有出貨，我只是想知道為什麼平均銷售價格持平，實際上略有下降，而不是在本季度上漲？

How can you come up with this -- how do you calculate this? Can you read for me the page you are looking at?

你是怎麼得出這個結論的？你是怎麼計算出來的？您能幫我讀一下您正在看的頁面嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Oh, I’m sorry, you’re doing it.

噢，對不起，你這麼做了。

Sorry, it’s on Page 10 of your presentation.

抱歉，它在您的簡報的第 10 頁。

Well, in the -- when you compare to Q1?

那麼，與 Q1 相比呢？

Q1 and Q2. On page 10 of the presentation you’ve given the breakup by revenue and the number of units.

Q1 和 Q2。在簡報的第 10 頁，您給出了按收入和單位數量進行的細分。

We’re struggling to try to reconcile your number because you’re right to say that in addition in Q2 we had those 1700, but a lot of 1400. So we will have to come back to you. There is no reason why the price should go down and -- there could be --? [inaudible]. So we need to go back to you.

我們正在努力檢查您的數字，因為您說得對，除了第二季的 1700 個之外，還有很多 1400 個。所以我們必須回到你身邊。價格沒有理由下降，而且──有可能──？ [聽不清楚]。所以我們需要回到你身邊。

But one, I can assure you of a certain number of things. First, the ASP has not gone down per machine. And two, you do have the impact of the 1700, which is a higher price than the 1400. So you may have either a mix of 200mm, 300mm in there, or -- and you may have, I wouldn’t be surprised, a mix effect of customers. You may have customers buying high volume and customers buying one at a time.

但有一點，我可以向你們保證。首先，每台機器的平均售價並沒有下降。其次，你確實受到了 1700 的影響，它的價格比 1400 更高。因此，您可能有 200 毫米、300 毫米的混合，或者 - 並且您可能有混合的客戶效應，我不會感到驚訝。您可能會遇到購買量很大的客戶，也可能會遇到一次只買一件的客戶。

So you would have the ones in high volume calling for higher discounts than the one with low volume, which could explain the very slight difference that you have seen. But again, [Frankie] would be happy to follow up with you and give you the data. There’s nothing like a trend that you can see there.

因此，交易量大的商家要求的折扣會比交易量小的商家更高，這可以解釋你所看到的細微差別。但再次強調，[Frankie] 很樂意跟進您並提供數據。沒有什麼能比得上你在那裡看到的趨勢。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Adrian. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

下一個問題來自阿德里安先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi there. It’s Stuart from Morgan Stanley. So, a question on the R&D. Last couple of quarters I think it’s been edging up and you’ve provided a good explanation of the projects that resource is being put into. Do you think R&D, net at €100m a quarter, is pretty much where it’s going to top out for the time being?

是的，你好。我是摩根士丹利的史都華。所以，這是一個關於研發的問題。我覺得最近幾季它一直在上升，而且您對投入資源的項目做出了很好的解釋。您是否認為每季 1 億歐元的研發淨支出已經達到目前的最高水準了？

And secondly, could you just talk a bit about any flexibility you’ve got within R&D, if there is a slow down at some point out there, in terms of managing that cost base?

其次，您能否談談研發方面有哪些彈性，如果在管理成本基礎方面出現放緩？

Yes. So to your first two questions. Clearly we invest R&D funds to do the right things. And today we think that €100m is a result of what we can ramp, because it’s important to find people, and [giving us] with the right skill set and the numbers of projects we have. And you have noticed at the beginning of the call, I hinted about how many new architectures we are now ramping in parallel and accelerating.

是的。對於你的前兩個問題。顯然，我們投入研發資金是為了做正確的事。如今，我們認為 1 億歐元是我們能夠擴大規模的結果，因為找到人才、為我們提供合適的技能以及我們擁有的專案數量非常重要。您可能已經注意到，在通話開始時，我暗示了我們現在正在並行加速開發多少新架構。

So, at this moment, yes, indeed. I could see the need for more money, in view of the opportunities which we have in front of us. So there is potential to achieve more high speed and to achieve more penetration in some segments if we put a bit more money.

所以，目前為止，確實如此。考慮到我們面前的機遇，我認為我們需要更多的資金。因此，如果我們投入更多一點資金，就有可能實現更高的速度並在某些領域實現更高的滲透率。

So yes, there is going to be a part of our brains looking at investing more. The part of our brain which looks at investing less is the one that says we need to anywhere deliver to our profitability target, no matter what.

所以是的，我們的大腦中確實有一部分會考慮投資更多。我們大腦中考慮減少投資的部分告訴我們，無論如何，我們都需要實現獲利目標。

So if the cycle is positive, if our performance allows it, you will see us moving north of 100m, even in a very short timeframe.

因此，如果週期是正向的，如果我們的表現允許，你會看到我們向北移動 100 米，即使在很短的時間內。

At the moment, or if the cycle weakens, we will take a decision, depending on the length of the cycle, to scale down. All our OpEx -- sorry, most of our OpEx -- are significantly scalable down by a factor of 20 to 30%. This is done by the smart usage of subcontracted work on subcontracted workers. So we have switches everywhere and, in particular in R&D, which allows a quick change of run rate of R&D.

目前，或如果週期減弱，我們將根據週期的長度決定縮減規模。我們所有的營運支出——抱歉，是大部分營運支出——都大幅縮減了 20% 到 30%。這是透過巧妙地利用分包工人來完成分包工作來實現的。因此，我們到處都有開關，特別是在研發領域，這可以快速改變研發的運作率。

But I repeat, this would be based on our reading of the cycle, as the cycle is very long down, in which case we may trigger, and if the cycle is only a quarter of etcetera, we may just plead for your patience and keep the R&D afloat for that cycle to continue because it is going to create value -- so much value in the years to come.

但我重申，這將基於我們對週期的解讀，因為週期很長，在這種情況下我們可能會觸發，如果週期只有四分之一等等，我們可能只是懇求您的耐心並保持研發繼續進行，因為它將創造價值——在未來幾年創造巨大的價值。

Okay. Understood. And just the follow-up is just back to gross margins, I’m afraid. As we think about immersion becoming a more mature technology and moving out of the R&D into a volume product for you, I’m still quite surprised that you’re essentially saying the gross margins you’re going to earn on those products are essentially just in line with Group gross margins, given that we know immersion is at least double the ASP.

好的。明白了。恐怕後續又要回到毛利率的問題。當我們考慮到沉浸式技術已經成為一種更成熟的技術，並從研發階段轉向量產產品時，我仍然很驚訝，您說這些產品的毛利率基本上與集團毛利率一致，因為我們知道沉浸式技術的平均售價至少是集團毛利率的兩倍。

Is that going to be the case as we move through 1700 into 1900, and the 1900 becomes a true volume tool for you, that you don’t expect any upside pressure on the gross margins?

當我們從 1700 進入 1900 時，情況是否會出現這種情況，並且 1900 成為您的真正數量工具，您預計毛利率不會有任何上行壓力？

Yes, I agree with you that Peter did not answer your question very well last time. So we are going to ask him again. Peter, could you please, this time, answer the question?

是的，我同意你的看法，彼得上次沒有很好地回答你的問題。所以我們要再問他一次。彼得，這次你能回答一下這個問題嗎？

I think your question, Stuart, specifically, just to be sure you are asking whether there is an upside opportunity on the 1900 because it’s going to be more mature, or immersion in general?

斯圖爾特，我認為你的問題具體來說只是為了確保你問的是 1900 是否存在上行機會，因為它會更加成熟，或者總體上會更加沉浸？

Well, I think just generally as immersion becomes a volume production technology. Normally, I think, when you’ve introduced new tools we’ve gone through this learning curve type of gross margin. But actually, I’m surprised that we’re not going to see any of that that would maybe provide upside risk to your 40% gross margin over the next year or two.

嗯，我認為一般來說，沉浸式技術已經成為一種大量生產技術。通常，我認為，當你引入新工具時，我們會經歷這種學習曲線類型的毛利率。但實際上，我很驚訝我們不會看到任何可能在未來一兩年內對 40% 的毛利率帶來上行風險的因素。

Yes, so it’s upside opportunity you mean, or upside risk. I was stood on the wrong leg, you were talking about risk. I thought you were talking about the downside effect.

是的，所以你的意思是上行機會，或上行風險。我錯了，你剛才說的是風險。我以為你在談論負面影響。

I think what the difference between the gross margin -- sorry, the gross margin is determined as the difference between sales price and the cost of goods. The sales price is really driven by the value that we’re giving to our customers. So our customers actually value our tools quite well by looking at what those tools deliver in terms of the shrink and in terms of productivity, thereby determining the [laboratory] cost per layer.

我認為毛利率之間的差異是什麼——抱歉，毛利率是由銷售價格和商品成本之間的差額決定的。銷售價格實際上取決於我們為客戶提供的價值。因此，我們的客戶實際上非常重視我們的工具，透過查看這些工具在收縮和生產力方面的表現，從而確定每層的[實驗室]成本。

And that’s determining the value of the two [manufacturers]. There’s not much more we can do than follow our customers in that particular sense. So how do we control the gross margin and driving costs down?

這決定了兩家[製造商]的價值。從這個意義上來說，我們能做的除了關注我們的客戶之外，沒有太多其他事情可做。那我們要如何控制毛利率並降低成本呢？

Now, are there opportunities for driving cost down further? There always are. But with every new node, and also we have seen it with the 1900, the optical cost will go up because the complexity of the optical system goes up. The series are not necessarily being larger. So that means that R&D costs need to be earned back over lower volumes.

現在，是否還有機會進一步降低成本？總是有的。但是隨著每個新節點的出現，而且我們已經看到 1900 的情況，光學成本將會上升，因為光學系統的複雜性會增加​​。該系列不一定會變得更大。這意味著需要在較低的產量下收回研發成本。

And that paints a pretty complex picture whereby it is our task to just keep the cost of goods at 60% of the sales price. Now, we’ve been able to do that. And given the complexity of what we’re doing, it’s a bit difficult to predict whether that complexity will be going down going forward so that we can decrease the 60% and increase the gross margin.

這描繪了一幅相當複雜的圖景，我們的任務就是將商品成本維持在銷售價格的 60%。現在，我們已經能夠做到這一點。考慮到我們所做工作的複雜性，很難預測這種複雜性是否會在未來下降，以便我們可以將 60% 的成本降低並提高毛利率。

So currently what we are seeing is to keep that balance that we have seen over the last few years, of a 40% target, to keep the balance also going forward, largely given the uncertainties with respect to the cost of goods development.

因此，目前我們看到的是維持過去幾年的平衡，即 40% 的目標，並在未來保持平衡，這主要是考慮到商品開發成本的不確定性。

Okay. Understood. Thanks.

好的。明白了。謝謝。

But I would be a bit more optimistic. Peter is the CFO, I am the CEO, so we are working very hard on the cost of goods. One part of the 100m is in this. So -- you should -- you could be optimistic, yes.

但我會更樂觀一些。彼得是財務官，我是首席執行官，因此我們在商品成本方面非常努力。100公尺的一部分就在這裡。所以 — — 你應該 — — 你可以保持樂觀，是的。

Understood.

明白了。

The next question is from Robert Maire. Please state your company name, sir, followed by your question.

下一個問題來自羅伯特·梅爾 (Robert Maire)。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Needham and Company. Just some clarification on the future guidance, and a follow-up question on double exposure. You’re guiding above 62 systems. I’m assuming that’s new systems forward guidance for bookings, as compared to 78 that were booked in the current quarter, or is that versus 93?

李約瑟公司。只是對未來指引的一些澄清，以及關於雙重曝光的後續問題。您正在指導超過 62 個系統。我假設這是新系統對預訂的前瞻性指引，而本季的預訂數量為 78 個，還是 93 個？

It is total systems. We are comparing total systems to total systems. 93 total. 62 Total. Above 62 total.

它是完整的系統。我們正在將整個系統與整個系統進行比較。共 93 個。總計 62。總計 62 以上。

Okay. That’s obviously a significant drop. And I realize you’re saying above 62. So there’s room for --

好的。這顯然是一個大幅的下降。我知道您說的是 62 以上。所以還有空間——

No, again -- sorry, we had the conversation in Q1 where we said we think a strong business, and you can make the calculation with the ASP, etc., etc., is around 60 to 70 per quarter. And the bookings -- sorry, billings. And the bookings may happen at different quarters because of assumptions of our customers on lead time and assumptions, or risk, on slotting. So you will see the bookings curve having some life of its own which does not reflect so well the need for customer -- of tools.

不，再說一遍——抱歉，我們在第一季度進行過討論，當時我們說我們認為業務強勁，你可以用 ASP 等進行計算，每季度約為 60 到 70。還有預訂——抱歉，是帳單。由於我們的客戶對交貨時間的假設以及對訂貨時段的假設或風險，預訂可能會在不同的季度發生。因此，您會看到預訂曲線有其自身的生命力，不能很好地反映客戶對工具的需求。

If I make myself clear, in Q4 we have bookings going well into nine-month lead time. In Q1 we had bookings which, as well, about six months’ lead time. In Q2, we are now getting back to nine months. So you see an accordion happening.

如果我說清楚的話，那麼在第四季度，我們的預訂量已經超過了九個月的交貨週期。在第一季度，我們的預訂量也大約需要六個月的準備時間。在第二季度，我們又回到了九個月的時間。所以你會看到手風琴正在演奏。

So what we called for Q3, at 62, is a -- well, if I ask, probably [inaudible], but it is compatible to a nicely growing billings business. And, by the way, I said above 62. I didn’t say 62. So it’s, again, some discussions you can have with the IR team to try to understand how the booking trends will translate into customer billings requirements or delivery requirements.

因此，我們對第三季的預測是 62，好吧，如果我問的話，可能是 [聽不清楚]，但它與良好成長的帳單業務相容。順便說一下，我說的是 62 以上。我沒說62。因此，您可以再次與 IR 團隊進行一些討論，嘗試了解預訂趨勢如何轉化為客戶帳單要求或交付要求。

If we’re trying to derive out of that what the customer’s looking at, if we’re talking about a nine-month lead time, that would assume that most of the order -- the 93 orders in the current quarter are aimed at first quarter ’07 delivery. Is that correct?

如果我們試圖從中得出客戶所關注的內容，如果我們談論的是九個月的交貨期，那就假設大多數訂單——本季度的 93 個訂單都是針對 2007 年第一季交付的。對嗎？

No. Very roughly, the current backlog we have of 1.7b, we said -- €1.7b, we say is 88% shippable in the second half. That’s the first piece of data you should have to try to understand 2006 and the customer needs because, at the end, bookings is not customer need. Billings is customer need.

不。粗略地說，我們目前的積壓訂單為 17 億歐元，我們說下半年可以出貨 88%。這是您嘗試了解 2006 年和客戶需求時應該掌握的第一條數據，因為歸根結底，預訂量並不是客戶需求。比林斯是客戶需要的。

So then you have, in these six months, you already have [terms]. And I think I answered one of the questions on terms, and I said, as we were having before, 10% terms on our regular invoice.

那麼，在這六個月裡，你已經有了[條款]。我想我回答了有關條款的一個問題，我說，就像我們之前所說的那樣，我們的常規發票有 10% 的條款。

And obviously related to that, the revenue for bookings isn’t going to be down as much since the ASP should be up substantially, given the --

顯然與此相關的是，預訂收入不會下降太多，因為平均售價應該會大幅上漲，考慮到——

Exactly. You’ve raised another question which, if you get a lot of immersion in there, you would get a jump of ASP. And the reason why we guided you on 62 bookings plus is if we get more i-Line, it’s in fact going to be more than 62. And if we don’t get more i-Lines and we get all immersion instead, it’s going to be 62, but the ASP will be higher.

確切地。您提出了另一個問題，如果您深入研究該領域，您就會在 ASP 方面取得飛躍。我們之所以指導您預訂 62 個以上的訂單，是因為如果我們獲得更多 i-Line，那麼實際預訂量將超過 62 個。如果我們沒有獲得更多的 i-Lines 而是獲得全沉浸式體驗，那麼價格將達到 62，但 ASP 會更高。

But I repeat, very complicated for you to call a business trend on the bookings. There’s so much discussions on the lead times that the bookings trend is different. The transition we make is we are today seeing growing sales. That’s what we are trying to hint through these different numbers. And if you make the math, you will come up with those numbers.

但我再說一遍，根據預訂量來判斷業務趨勢是非常複雜的。關於交貨時間的討論太多了，導致預訂趨勢有所不同。我們所做的轉變就是今天我們看到銷售額的成長。這就是我們試圖透過這些不同的數字來暗示的。如果你計算一下，你就會得出這些數字。

Okay. Just related to that question, we touched on it before, double exposure. It seems over the last maybe one or two quarters in the very recent past that double exposure had become a very real probability in the industry. Is any of the order activity that you’ve seen in the near term related to customers perhaps being more willing to order tools based on this new-found methodology for using non-wet or non-immersion tools, sort of a bridge to get to immersion?

好的。就這個問題而言，我們之前談過，雙重曝光。似乎在最近的一兩個季度裡，雙重曝光已經成為該行業非常現實的可能性。您近期看到的訂單活動是否與客戶更願意根據這種使用非濕式或非浸入式工具的新方法訂購工具有關，這是一種實現浸入式的橋樑？

And related to that, I’m assuming you don’t have to significantly alter your tools to do double exposure. It’s really a relatively simplistic thing, as I understand it.

與此相關，我假設您不需要大幅改變工具來進行雙重曝光。據我所知，這確實是一件相對簡單的事。

Well, it’s not so simple, in fact, because it makes your design pretty complicated, especially if you do logic. And second point is the overlay, which is the capability of the machine to replicate the other edge of the design on top of the one you have already exposed. It’s fairly complicated. So no, it’s not a no-brainer.

嗯，事實上，這並不是那麼簡單，因為它會讓你的設計變得非常複雜，特別是如果你進行邏輯設計的話。第二點是覆蓋，即機器將設計的另一個邊緣複製到已經曝光的邊緣上的能力。這相當複雜。所以，這不是一件輕而易舉的事。

However, double patterning is going to exist. It’s a good breakthrough of the industry. And it will help a lot of customers go to the next step node. Double patterning will exist in different forms. It will exist, in fact, at different nodes and it will exist at different technology.

然而，雙重模式將會存在。這是行業的一個很好的突破。並且會幫助很多客戶進入下一步節點。雙重圖案將以不同的形式存在。事實上，它將存在於不同的節點，存在於不同的技術中。

Some people will use double patterning dry. Some people will use double patterning wet. Some people will use double patterning for -- until there is an economic solution in the [UV]. And some people will have to go in the UV, even if the UV is more expensive for a period of time because they can’t duplicate their design.

有些人會使用雙重圖案來乾燥。有些人會使用濕式雙重圖案。有些人會使用雙重圖案——直到 [UV] 中出現經濟的解決方案。有些人將不得不採用 UV，即使 UV 在一段時間內會更貴，因為他們無法複製他們的設計。

So you are going to have, from 2007 or 2008, on a mixture of approach to [some of] nodes. But very clearly, if you do have double patterning dry today, and imagine you can do for the niche 45 nano with double patterning dry, guess what, you can do double patterning immersion giving you 40 nano or less.

因此，從 2007 年或 2008 年開始，您將對某些節點採取混合方法。但很明顯，如果你今天確實有雙重圖案乾燥技術，想像一下你可以用雙重圖案乾燥技術來實現 45 奈米的利基市場，猜猜看，你可以進行雙重圖案浸沒，從而實現 40 奈米或更低的精度。

So dry -- immersion will always be there. Double patterning does not replace immersion. Immersion is also an enabler to double patterning.

如此乾燥——浸泡將永遠存在。雙重曝光不能取代浸沒曝光。浸沒也是實現雙重圖案化的因素之一。

I understand that. The simple question is that the emergence of double patterning or double exposure enhanced the sales or the ordering in the near term of dry systems which may have helped the orders that we saw in the current quarter?

我明白。簡單的問題是，雙重圖案或雙重曝光的出現增強了乾式系統的近期銷售或訂購量，這可能有助於我們在本季度看到的訂單？

Today it looks clear to us that immersion will be cheaper to do at 45 nano than double patterning dry. But that doesn’t mean some customers may not want to have one layer or two done with double patterning because they have an installed [path].

今天，我們清楚地看到，在 45 奈米製程中浸沒法比雙重圖案乾法更便宜。但這並不意味著有些客戶可能不想用雙重圖案完成一層或兩層，因為他們已經安裝了[路徑]。

[One weight].

[一個重量]。

[inaudible], sorry, immersion is done. Everybody is now ramping production with the orders, etc. So you won’t get anybody in double patterning production faster than somebody in immersion.

[聽不清楚]，抱歉，浸泡已完成。現在每個人都在根據訂單加大生產力度等等。因此，雙重曝光生產中沒有人比浸沒式曝光生產中的人更快獲得曝光。

So you really have the choice now. And it’s really how much experience you have in both and how many wafers you really want to process. If you want to process a lot of wafers, etc., immersion is much cheaper. There’s no question there. But if there is not so many wafers, you’ve got to do it in the first half of ’07, it’s going to be some full structure of design, then you can obviously use double patterning dry.

所以你現在確實有選擇。這實際上取決於您在這兩方面有多少經驗，以及您真正想要處理多少晶圓。如果你想處理大量的晶圓等，那麼浸沒式製程會便宜得多。毫無疑問。但如果沒有那麼多晶圓，你必須在 2007 年上半年完成，這將是一些完整的設計結構，然後你顯然可以使用雙重圖案乾法。

Thank you. That helps quite a bit. Thank you.

謝謝。這有很大幫助。謝謝。

Operator?

操作員？

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

We have time for one more question. One final question please.

我們還有時間再回答一個問題。請問最後一個問題。

Okay. The final question is from Mr. Hosseini. Please state your company name followed by your question.

好的。最後一個問題來自胡賽尼先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Sure. Mehdi Hosseini, Freidman Billings. I have two questions. First, if I heard it correctly, you expect one unit booking for 1900 in Q3. Can you tell me what type of customer you expect to do this booking?

當然。梅赫迪·胡賽尼、弗里德曼·比林斯。我有兩個問題。首先，如果我沒聽錯的話，您預計第三季的預訂量為 1900 台。您能告訴我您預計哪種類型的客戶會進行此預訂嗎？

And then regarding your other comments regarding share gain in Ireland, is that in dry ArF or that particular customer has decided to include immersion at 55 nanometer?

然後關於您對愛爾蘭市場份額增長的其他評論，是採用乾式 ArF 還是特定客戶已決定採用 55 奈米浸沒式技術？

Okay. So I think I confused you. I don’t think I said one 1900 in Q3. I said we will start the bookings of 1900i. So we do --

好的。所以我想我讓你困惑了。我不記得我在第三季說過 1900。我說我們將開始預訂 1900i。所以我們——

So it could be more than one?

那麼可能不只一個嗎？

Yes. Yes. Absolutely. In fact, at this very moment, every customer of ours is negotiating his special specifications and, of course, condition of sales and schedule. So, again, we don’t exactly know which timeframe we are going to get all these results, but this is -- the decision has started.

是的。是的。絕對地。事實上，此時此刻，我們的每一位客戶都在協商他的特殊規格，當然還有銷售條件和時間表。所以，我們再說一遍，我們並不確切知道我們將在哪個時間範圍內獲得所有這些結果，但這是——決策已經開始了。

Regarding the i-Line market share that is the non-critical layer technology, what was your question exactly?

關於非關鍵層技術的i-Line市場份額，您的問題到底是什麼？

Okay. Just on a 1900i, what type of customer would you expect to start ordering? Would that be NAND or DRAM?

好的。就 1900i 而言，您預期哪種類型的客戶會開始訂購？那是 NAND 還是 DRAM？

And then your comment regarding share gain in Ireland, I assume that’s for 55 nanometer. And my question was is that for dry ArF or immersion. And if it is immersion, is that going to be used in combination of double patterning?

然後，您關於愛爾蘭市場份額增長的評論，我認為這是針對 55 奈米的。我的問題是，這適用於乾式 ArF 還是浸沒式？如果是浸沒式，是否會與雙重圖案化結合？

Okay. I think you guessed I said Ireland, the country, that means [intel]. I would never do this. No, I said i-Line.

好的。我想你猜到我說的是愛爾蘭這個國家，意思是[情報]。我絕對不會這麼做。不，我說的是 i-Line。

I’m sorry.

對不起。

Sorry. It’s my fault. And the reason why we are successful in there is because our i-Line is non-critical layer, but with a very, very good overlay. So lots of success there.

對不起。這是我的錯。我們之所以能取得成功，是因為我們的 i-Line 是非關鍵層，但具有非常非常好的覆蓋性。因此，那裡取得了很多成功。

Regarding your questions on the 1900i, very important question. The 1900i is using the 1700i platform. So it’s a fairly easy switch from 1700 to 1900. So that means 1900i will serve very, very quickly in production. So lots of customers doing 1700i will move with minimum R&D to a 1900 production. So you’re going to have a whole bunch of customers like this, and these are the [facts].

關於您對 1900i 的疑問，這是一個非常重要的問題。1900i 使用 1700i 平台。因此從 1700 到 1900 的轉換相當容易。這意味著 1900i 將非常快速地投入生產。因此，許多生產 1700i 的客戶將以最低限度的研發投入轉向生產 1900。所以你將會擁有一大批這樣的客戶，這些就是[事實]。

And the other part of the customers, like mainly logic and Foundry, will use the 1900i to develop 40 nanometer technology. And they will take R&D tools and they will take a bit more time to do production.

而另一部分客戶，主要是邏輯和Foundry，將使用1900i來開發40奈米技術。他們將採用研發工具，並花費更多時間進行生產。

Sure. If I may go back to my second question, you talked about share gain in Japan and Taiwan. How come you’re not bringing up the U.S.?

當然。如果我可以回到我的第二個問題，您談到了日本和台灣的份額成長。為什麼不提美國呢？

U.S. are -- I don’t even know where to gain market share. It’s one large customer.

美國——我什至不知道在哪裡可以獲得市場份額。它是一個大客戶。

Yes, the big microprocessor customer.

是的，微處理器的大客戶。

[Inaudible]. Yes, we, as you know, we do not comment on single customers. It’s very difficult for me to tell you. But we feel optimistic obviously.

[聽不清楚]。是的，如您所知，我們不會對單一客戶發表評論。我很難告訴你。但我們顯然感到樂觀。

That concludes the Q&A session. Thank you for attending. See you next time.

問答環節到此結束。謝謝您的出席。下次再見。

Goodbye everybody. Thank you.

各位再見。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2006 second quarter conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2006 年第二季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。