艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2006 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the ASML 2006 third quarter results conference call on October 18, 2006. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead sir.

    女士們,先生們,歡迎參加 2006 年 10 月 18 日 ASML 2006 年第三季業績電話會議。 [操作員指示]。 現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。 先生,請繼續。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon and good morning. This is Craig DeYoung, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Welcome to our Investor and Media Call and Webcast. The subject of the call is ASML's 2006 third quarter results according to U.S. GAAP. Here with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Eric Meurice, and Chief Financial Office, Peter Wennink.

    謝謝您,接線生。 下午好,早安。 我是 ASML 投資人關係主管 Craig DeYoung。 歡迎參加我們的投資者和媒體電話會議和網路廣播。 這次電話會議的主題是 ASML 根據美國公認會計準則 (US GAAP) 的 2006 年第三季業績。 今天和我一起在場的是執行長 Eric Meurice 和財務長 Peter Wennink。

  • ASML draws your attention to the message on today's press release and presentation regarding forward looking statements. The call will be 60 minutes in duration. On our website at asml.com you will find our press release, a brief presentation, and financial reporting with figures in U.S. GAAP and IFRS. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Eric for a brief call introduction.

    ASML 提請您注意今天的新聞稿和簡報中有關前瞻性聲明的資訊。 通話時間為 60 分鐘。 在我們的網站 asml.com 上,您可以找到我們的新聞稿、簡介以及包含美國 GAAP 和 IFRS 數據的財務報告。 現在我想將電話轉給 Eric 進行簡短的電話介紹。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Thank you Craig. Good afternoon and good morning. Thank you for attending our conference call, but I will correct Craig first. I will be a bit more lengthy on the introduction today, as there are obvious questions which we felt it would be more efficient if I were to try to address them in the introduction discussion.

    謝謝你,克雷格。 下午好,早安。 感謝您參加我們的電話會議,但我首先要糾正 Craig。 我今天的介紹會稍微長一點,因為有一些明顯的問題,我們覺得如果我在介紹討論中嘗試解決這些問題會更有效率。

  • So I've got, in fact, three messages in this introduction. First of all, our execution performance. You can see from our Q3 results that we have again delivered on key performance areas, namely, growth, profitability and liquidity. In Q3 we have been able to increase our sales by 80% year-to-year, leading to a projected 40% growth for the full year 2006 versus 2005.

    因此,事實上,我在這篇介紹中傳達了三個訊息。 首先是我們的執行表現。 從我們的第三季業績可以看出,我們再次在關鍵績效領域取得了成果,即成長、獲利能力和流動性。 在第三季度,我們的銷售額年增了 80%,預計 2006 年全年銷售額將比 2005 年成長 40%。

  • According to analyst sources, ASML's market share has now reached above 60% in value in the first half of 2006, the latest period reported. This market share development looks sustained, as Q3 net bookings have reached, as you know, 95 systems, bringing our backlog to a record value of EUR2.1b, or 151 systems.

    據分析師透露,最新數據顯示,2006年上半年ASML的市佔率已達60%以上。 這項市佔率發展看起來是持續的,因為如您所知,第三季的淨預訂量已達到 95 個系統,使我們的積壓訂單價值達到創紀錄的 21 億歐元,即 151 個系統。

  • In terms of profitability, we see results from our scaling costs structure, in view of the high sales, as well as from our program for reduction of the cost of goods. We delivered operating profit of 25% of sales, a record net profit at nearly 18% of sales, on a growth margin above our operational target which is, as you know, 40%.

    在獲利能力方面,鑑於高銷售額,我們看到了擴大成本結構以及降低商品成本計畫的成果。 我們實現了營業利潤佔銷售額的 25%,淨利潤創歷史新高,佔銷售額的近 18%,成長率高於我們 40% 的營運目標。

  • In terms of liquidity, we have significantly improved our manufacturing cycle time which has been our focus for the past two years, allowing a reduction of inventory, even in view of next quarter's forecasted growth. We used cash to buy back nearly EUR150m worth of shares during the quarter, as our cash generation outlook for the next quarters is strong.

    在流動性方面,我們顯著改善了製造週期時間,這是我們過去兩年來一直關注的重點,即使考慮到下個季度的預測增長,我們也能減少庫存。 由於我們下一季的現金創造前景強勁,我們在本季使用現金回購了價值近 1.5 億歐元的股票。

  • In other words, another solid and consistent set of results, underlining now our maturity.

    換句話說,另一組穩健且一致的成果,凸顯了我們的成熟度。

  • My second point relates to ASML's technology accomplishments. At the lower end of the market, our i-Line business is expected to double, year-to-year, 2005 versus 2006, but also 2006 versus 2007. This growth is enabled by our market leading overlap.

    我的第二點與 ASML 的技術成就有關。 在低端市場,我們的 i-Line 業務預計 2005 年將比 2006 年成長一倍,2006 年比 2007 年也成長一倍。這一增長得益於我們市場領先的重疊性。

  • On the Immersion front, we have shipped 28 Immersion systems to date, including shipments of 15 1700i systems in the past two quarters, the 1700i being the industry's only system capable of producing 45 nanometer technology. We are well ahead of competition in the next node, DRAM, which went into production by our customers. The Immersion data now confirms appropriate defect density for two to three layer production which is basically necessary for the Memory business. On data, the appropriate defect density is about under 30 defect [per] wafer. Also, our current Immersion backlog, at 15 units, and the strong current bookings activities confirms the capacity build-up for production for our customers. At this point, we expect Flash manufacturers to ramp first, followed by manufacturers of DRAM and then of Logic.

    在浸入式方面,迄今為止我們已經出貨了 28 台浸入式系統,包括過去兩個季度出貨的 15 台 1700i 系統,1700i 是業界唯一能夠生產 45 奈米技術的系統。 在下一個節點 DRAM 中,我們遠遠領先於競爭對手,我們的客戶已將其投入生產。 現在,浸入式資料確認了兩到三層生產的適當缺陷密度,這對於儲存業務基本上是必要的。 從數據來看,適當的缺陷密度約為每晶圓30個缺陷以下。 此外,我們目前的 Immersion 積壓訂單為 15 台,而目前強勁的預訂活動證實了我們為客戶增強了生產能力。 目前,我們預計 Flash 製造商將首先加大生產,然後是 DRAM 製造商,最後是邏輯製造商。

  • Although it is too early to call the numbers of Immersion units to be shipped in 2007, we stick by our previous estimate that the new node of this nature involves a typical ramp of 70 tools, roughly, with 18 months. By mid-2007, ASML will offer the current 1700i for 55 nanometer and for 45 nanometer nodes, and a new TWINSCAN, the 1900i, which will enable volume production at 40 nanometer node, with the industry's highest wafer throughput.

    儘管現在預測 2007 年 Immersion 設備的出貨數量還為時過早,但我們堅持先前的估計,即這種新節點大約需要 18 個月的時間才能交付 70 台工具。 到 2007 年中期,ASML 將提供適用於 55 奈米和 45 奈米節點的現有 1700i,以及新型 TWINSCAN 1900i,這將使 40 奈米節點的批量生產成為可能,並具有業界最高的晶圓吞吐量。

  • To stay ahead further in the technology race, ASML also delivered in Q3 the industry's first true full-field EUV development system to [Albany] Nanotech and to IMEC in preparation for potential ramp of pre-production EUV units for mid 2009.

    為了在技術競賽中保持領先地位,ASML 也在第三季向 [Albany] Nanotech 和 IMEC 交付了業界首個真正的全場 EUV 開發系統,為 2009 年中期 EUV 預生產裝置的潛在量產做好準備。

  • In view of the current favorable market conditions and to reinforce our position as a technology leader in lithography and to leverage our size, ASML will continue to invest further in R&D. We now intend to raise our R&D expenditure [EUR205m] in the fourth quarter 2006.

    鑑於當前有利的市場條件,為了鞏固我們在光刻領域的技術領先地位並利用我們的規模,ASML 將繼續在研發方面進行進一步投資。 我們現在打算在 2006 年第四季增加研發支出 [2.05 億歐元]。

  • Finally, my third point will address the state of the semiconductor industry, as of course we see it from the lithography point of view. As we said before, the industry is maturing, as five key trends are contributing to its relative stability. The first trend is the semiconductor market is comprised, as we said, multiple number of times, of five different segments, market segments, namely DRAM, Flash, IDM, Foundry and R&D. These have different dynamics.

    最後,我的第三點將討論半導體產業的現狀,當然我們是從一個光刻的角度來看這個問題的。 正如我們之前所說,該行業正在成熟,五個關鍵趨勢正在促進其相對穩定。 第一個趨勢是,正如我們多次提到的,半導體市場由五個不同的部分組成,即 DRAM、Flash、IDM、Foundry 和 R&D。 這些具有不同的動態。

  • The second factor is that no single product application, TVs or mobiles, PCs, Playstations, etc, is now large enough to influence the whole industry as it was previously the case when a winning product cycle was overwhelming the total market.

    第二個因素是,現在沒有任何單一產品應用(電視或手機、個人電腦、PlayStation 等)大到足以影響整個產業,而以前則是一個成功的產品週期壓倒了整個市場。

  • The third element of stability is that the management of the supply chain in general, that is the management of the IC inventory, but also of the manufacturing capacity by our different customers, is more cautious than ever, as ROIC, return on invested capital, is a [positive] measure of results for the whole industry and obviously draws attention to these fundamentals.

    穩定的第三個要素是整個供應鏈的管理,即 IC 庫存的管理,以及我們不同客戶的製造能力的管理,比以往任何時候都更加謹慎,因為 ROIC(投資資本回報率)是整個行業業績的[積極]衡量指標,顯然引起了對這些基本面的關注。

  • The fourth element of stability is about Semiconductor FAB CapEx, which are now managed by tranche, as opposed to by very, very large new FAB as it used be. Whereby the overall building investment can be made, of course, on one hit, but the equipment itself is only brought in by small increments on a need basis.

    穩定性的第四個要素是半導體 FAB 資本支出,現在是分批管理的,而不是像以前那樣透過非常非常大的新 FAB 進行管理。 當然,整體建築投資可以一次完成,但設備本身只能根據需要以小幅增量引進。

  • And the fifth element of stability of our market is very much lithography driven. Yes, lithographic complexity raises its share value of the total FAB equipment CapEx as new nodes call for more and more and more layers to be processed with systems with higher ASP.

    我們市場穩定的第五個要素很大程度上是由光刻技術驅動的。 是的,隨著新節點要求使用具有更高 ASP 的系統來處理越來越多的層,光刻複雜性提高了其在整個 FAB 設備資本支出中的份額價值。

  • These five factors result, on average in shorter and shallower overall industry cycles which we have been living through for now the past three years or so.

    這五個因素平均導致整個產業週期更短、更淺,而我們過去三年左右就經歷了這樣的週期。

  • And, and this is not a surprise, we confirm that this seems to be the case for the years to come, as we see it from the different data in front of us. On the negative side of what we see in front of us, there is, arguably, a bit too much inventory in some selected channels, a bit too much IC inventory in some selected channels, and there is definitively over-capacity built-up in Flash.

    而且,這並不奇怪,我們確認,未來幾年情況似乎仍然如此,正如我們從前面的不同數據中看到的那樣。 就我們所看到的負面情況而言,可以說,某些選定渠道的庫存有點太多,某些選定渠道的 IC 庫存有點太多,而且 Flash 的產能肯定過剩。

  • The IC inventories are being kept in check as the capacity utilization that we monitor shows some slight reduction in the related segments, but at levels which still enables lithography purchases. The Flash FAB capacity build-up, however, does indeed call for a correction at some point.

    由於我們監測的產能利用率顯示相關部分略有下降,但仍處於能夠購買光刻機的水平,因此 IC 庫存受到控制。 然而,Flash FAB 產能的增加確實在某個時候需要修正。

  • But if you insert all those negatives into the different models, and if you add the single digit IC unit growth assumption in 2007, the industry analysts are calling for a roughly stable lithography market overall in 2007 in comparison to 2006.

    但是,如果你將所有這些負面因素放入不同的模型中,如果你加上2007年個位數IC單位成長假設,那麼產業分析師會預測,與2006年相比,2007年的整體光刻市場將大致保持穩定。

  • On the positive side of this equation, and positive for ASML, the 65 nanometer production ramp-ups which are now galloping, I would say, or increasing at a higher speed at our customers, their start-up of 45 nanometer with Immersion, the R&D cycle which will start mid-2007 for the development of the 40 nanometer processes, our increasing penetration in the mid-critical layers at our customers, we talked about i-Line, but we are also growing and our KRF business in customers that we freshly won in the past year or two, all this will translate into share gains for ASML and are significant engines of growth.

    從這個等式的積極方面來看,對於 ASML 來說也是利好消息,我想說,65 奈米生產正在飛速增長,或者說,我們的客戶正在以更高的速度增長,他們開始使用 Immersion 進行 45 奈米生產,40 奈米製程的研發週期將於 2007 年中期開始,我們在客戶的關鍵層中談到了i-Line,但我們也在成長,我們在過去的一兩年裡剛贏得的客戶的 KRF 業務也正在成長,所有這些都將轉化為 ASML 的份額成長,並成為重要的成長引擎。

  • So in summary of my three points, in view of our execution track record, our strengthened technology leadership, and the lack, and this is an important message, lack of significant market peaks or drops foreseen. And analyzed by the different analysts of the industry, ASML is well positioned to execute on its secular growth target in the short-term but also in the mid-term, and the long-term. Now, Peter and I will take your questions.

    因此,總結我的三點,鑑於我們的執行記錄、我們加強的技術領導地位,以及缺乏(這是一個重要的訊息),缺乏預見的重大市場高峰或下跌。 而根據業內不同分析師的分析,ASML 不僅在短期內,而且在中期和長期內都具備實現其長期成長目標的條件。 現在,彼得和我將回答你們的問題。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • And before I turn it back over to the Operator, I'd like to ask that you identify yourselves and your organization when asking the question, and in order to allow as many individual questions in the time allotted, we kindly request that you ask just one question, and you will find that we will be stricter than normal on this particular point, again, in the interests of allowing as many questions as possible. Now, operator, we're ready for the first question please.

    在我將問題轉回接線員之前,我希望大家在提問時表明自己的身份和所在組織的身份,為了能夠在規定時間內提出盡可能多的個人問題,我們懇請大家只提出一個問題,您會發現,在這個問題上我們會比平時更加嚴格,同樣,也是為了盡可能多地回答問題。 接線員,現在我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The first question is from Mr. [Matt Shearer], Lehman Brothers. Go ahead please sir.

    第一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的馬特希勒先生。 先生,請繼續。

  • Matt Shearer - Analyst

    Matt Shearer - Analyst

  • Thank you very much and good afternoon gentlemen. Eric, I just wanted to ask, actually, beyond the 32 nanometer -- oh, sorry, beyond the 45 nanometer node, am I reading it correctly that at this stage you can take the 1900i down to 40? With Immersion you're unlikely to be able to get to 32 unless you have some additions coming from EUV type technology. Is that the right way of looking at it? Thank you.

    非常感謝,先生們下午好。 艾瑞克,我只是想問一下,實際上,超越 32 奈米——哦,抱歉,超越 45 奈米節點,我理解得對嗎,在這個階段,你可以將 1900i 降至 40? 使用 Immersion 不太可能達到 32,除非您有一些來自 EUV 類型技術的附加功能。 這是正確的觀察方式嗎? 謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • No, it is true that the 1900 or any machine with the maximum NA possible which is going to be about [technical difficulty].

    不,確實,1900 或任何具有最大 NA 的機器都將達到 [技術難度]。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mr. Shearer, could you maybe mute your line, while you're listening to the answer?

    希勒先生,您在聽答案的時候能不能把電話靜音?

  • Matt Shearer - Analyst

    Matt Shearer - Analyst

  • Yes, sure.

    是的,當然。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Yes, so on every machine at 1.35 NA, which is the maximum possible at this moment, we could reach only 40 nanometer. However, you can do lower than 40, up to 32, and even beyond if you use double patterning, or double illumination. Therefore we expect customers as early as 2008 to start introducing these possibilities to go beyond the 40 nanometer, as a bridge towards EUV. And then EUV and double patterning will compete against the cheaper players, will win.

    是的,因此在每台 1.35 NA 的機器上(這是目前可能的最大值),我們只能達到 40 奈米。 但是,如果使用雙重圖案或雙重照明,則可以將數量控制在 40 以下,最高可達 32,甚至更高。 因此,我們預期客戶最早在 2008 年開始引入這些超越 40 奈米的可能性,作為邁向 EUV 的橋樑。 然後 EUV 和雙重圖案化將與更便宜的廠商競爭,並取得勝利。

  • Matt Shearer - Analyst

    Matt Shearer - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, and at this stage, you're the only guys in town with double patterning that works.

    非常感謝,目前為止,你們是鎮上唯一能夠使用雙重模式的人。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Thank you. Yes.

    謝謝。 是的。

  • Matt Shearer - Analyst

    Matt Shearer - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mr. Nicolas Gaudois, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois 先生。 請繼續。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Yes, hi there Eric. You seem to be very confident in particular, probably incrementally confident, on low-end so non-critical [part of your tools]. You just said, I think, i-Line to double again in 2007 versus 2006. Is this coming primarily from market share gains or to existing customers? And with that, do you actually see more customers following what GSMC, IM Flash or to have [inaudible] which is effectively to move to a single source for [inaudible]?

    是的,你好,艾瑞克。 您似乎對低端而非關鍵的 [工具部分] 特別有信心,甚至可能越來越有信心。 您剛才說,我認為 2007 年 i-Line 的銷量將比 2006 年再翻倍。這主要歸功於市場佔有率的成長還是現有客戶的增加? 那麼,您是否真的看到更多客戶關注 GSMC、IM Flash 或 [聽不清楚],即有效地轉向 [聽不清楚] 的單一來源?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Nicolas, good question. This growth doubling twice, in fact, in two years, is about, I would say, nearly 50-50 the new customers and traditional customers who are expanding our market share with them, and yes, we go nearer and nearer to a, let's say, stable 80% to 100% market share at those customers.

    尼古拉斯,好問題。 事實上,這種成長在兩年內翻了一番,我想說,新客戶和傳統客戶的比例幾乎是 50-50,他們正在一起擴大我們的市場份額,是的,我們在這些客戶中越來越接近穩定的 80% 到 100% 的市場份額。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Okay, and beyond the ones I've just quoted, basically, as we think you're nearly there, do you see similar opportunities at other existing customers?

    好的,除了我剛才引用的那些之外,基本上,我們認為你已經快要成功了,你是否在其他現有客戶身上看到了類似的機會?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Oh, certainly. The reason of our success in the low-end i-Line is because of this overlay. This overlay is beyond our competition capability as we understand it at this moment. And therefore if you continue, I think as a 65 nanometer, etc, growth, in some applications you definitively need this overlay on the non-critical layer, and the solution that we offer seems to be the unique solution with, in addition, high throughput. And therefore we expect the customers who have never bought from us to be also interested at the low-end.

    噢,當然了。 我們在低端i-Line上取得成功的原因就是因為這種覆蓋。 據我們目前了解,這種覆蓋超出了我們的競爭能力。 因此,如果繼續下去,我認為隨著 65 奈米等的增長,在某些應用中,您肯定需要在非關鍵層上進行這種覆蓋,而我們提供的解決方案似乎是具有高吞吐量的獨特解決方案。 因此,我們預計從未從我們這裡購買過產品的客戶也會對低端產品感興趣。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Great, thank you, and as a quick follow-up, could you --

    太好了,謝謝你,作為快速的後續問題,你能——

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • We're going to have to move forward, sorry.

    我們必須繼續前進,抱歉。

  • Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicolas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Okay, fair enough.

    好吧,夠公平。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mr. Simon Schafer, Goldman Sachs, go ahead please.

    高盛的西蒙謝弗先生,請繼續。

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Eric, you mentioned that maybe at this point it seems as if the Memory segment is facing somewhat of an over-capacity situation, and therefore obviously your order guidance for the fourth quarter is a little bit downwards. That segment for you is about 75% of orders right now. As we look into the first half of 2007, when would you expect that to see a recovery, or is that a pause that is likely to be taking longer than a couple of quarters?

    午安. 艾瑞克,您提到,目前看來,記憶體部門似乎面臨某種產能過剩的情況,因此,您對第四季度的訂單預期顯然會略有下降。 目前,該部分訂單約佔訂單的 75%。 當我們展望 2007 年上半年時,您預計何時會出現復甦,或者這是否會是一個可能需要超過幾個季度的時間的暫停?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Okay, this is obviously a good question. So first of all I want to say one more time, and I think you've heard it from a lot of different companies, and I think research in particular, be cautious with trying to find trends into bookings. Bookings, of course, are correlated to billings at some point. But the factor that influences booking is also lead-time, and you could have sometimes very high quarter bookings and very low quarter bookings. That does not really translate into a capacity need or a billings trend, and you should be highly cautious. And I also noted since we introduced results today that some people were talking about bookings peaks and etc. This is a superficial measure of a cycle. So I will try to answer you now into billings activity.

    好的,這顯然是一個好問題。 所以首先我想再說一次,我想你已經從很多不同的公司那裡聽說過,我認為特別是在研究中,要謹慎地尋找預訂趨勢。 當然,預訂在某種程度上與帳單相關。 但影響預訂的因素也是交貨時間,有時一個季度的預訂量可能很高,有時一個季度的預訂量也可能很低。 這並不真正轉化為容量需求或帳單趨勢,您應該高度謹慎。 我還注意到,自從我們今天公佈結果以來,有些人正在談論預訂高峰等。這只是一個表面的周期衡量標準。 因此,我現在將嘗試回答您有關帳單活動的問題。

  • In terms of billing, that is leads from the customers, we didn't say there is over-heating in memory. We said there is over-heating in Flash, which represents to that a bit more now than half of the total memory segment, and it's a bit more because there is over-heating. Normally it should be about the same.

    就計費而言,這是來自客戶的線索,我們並沒有說記憶體過熱。 我們說快閃記憶體存在過熱現象,這意味著現在整個記憶體段的過熱程度已經超過了一半,而且過熱程度還超過了一半。 正常情況下應該差不多。

  • So in DRAM itself, you see good strong bookings, but at this moment, billings, or a forecast to bookings, at this moment, the DRAM capacity build-up is very much a parallel with projected needs by the different analysts. Clearly in 2006, there was a gap, not enough capacity, a bit of a build-up to try to recover 2006 already, and a projection of the needs for 2007 which, as we say, is nothing exciting but this growth requires capacity. So DRAM, we feel pretty comfortable that there is not significant over-heating.

    因此,就 DRAM 本身而言,您會看到強勁的預訂量,但就目前而言,無論是帳單還是預訂量預測,DRAM 產能累積與不同分析師預測的需求非常相似。 顯然,2006 年存在缺口,產能不足,需要進行一些累積才能恢復 2006 年的水平,並且對 2007 年的需求進行了預測,正如我們所說,這並不令人興奮,但這種增長需要產能。 因此,對於 DRAM,我們感到很放心,沒有明顯的過熱現象。

  • On the Flash, we all know that the different players have recognized that Flash is a segment of growth, or very high growth, which has a very positive characteristic which is if you can squeeze, if you can shrink, if you can integrate more transistors, you create more applications, which was not the case of DRAM. DRAM was basically limited, or is limited, by the numbers of PCs or boxes, etc, in which they are put in. Flash has the opportunity for a good long period in front of it, to be limited by only the capability of integrated chips, which is why they are all building capacity, and all running extremely fast to the next node.

    關於 Flash,我們都知道,不同的參與者已經認識到 Flash 是一個增長領域,或者說增長速度非常快,它有一個非常積極的特點,那就是如果你可以壓縮,如果你可以縮小,如果你可以集成更多的晶體管,你就可以創造更多的應用程序,而 DRAM 則不是這樣。 DRAM 基本上受限於(或說仍然受限於)安裝它們的 PC 或盒子等的數量。 Flash 有機會在相當長的一段時間內僅受限於整合晶片的能力,這就是為什麼它們都在建造容量,並且都以極快的速度運行到下一個節點。

  • But that said, yes, it is true, there is an over-building of that capacity, in view of what the analysts expect the Flash total business to grow in 2007. If you hear some analysts, they will talk about 30% growth of units of Flash compared to this year. Some will talk about 50%, but we estimate that the capacity which is being built up is above those numbers, and therefore that's why we call it an over-heating.

    但話雖如此,確實存在產能過剩的情況,因為分析師預計 2007 年 Flash 整體業務將會成長。如果你聽一些分析師說,他們會談論與今年相比 Flash 銷量將成長 30%。 有些人會說是 50%,但我們估計正在建造的產能高於這個數字,因此我們稱之為過熱。

  • On the other hand, that over-heating has been assessed by us as being reasonably limited in view of our total portfolio. We have mentioned often that this over-heating has been estimated to be about 10% to 15% of our total sales. So in that case, we are considering that if there is a major correction in 2007 of this over-heating, that means a stop of the bookings for a period of time, well that period of time may not be very long. And that confirms our position that we don't see major downturn or drops, or froth, or whatever in this business because of this over-heating which is well understood, well-known. It is only on one segment.

    另一方面,從我們的整體投資組合來看,我們認為過熱的程度是合理有限的。 我們經常提到,這種過熱現象估計占我們總銷售額的 10% 至 15% 左右。 因此,在這種情況下,我們認為,如果 2007 年出現過熱現象的重大調整,那就意味著一段時間內預訂將停止,但這段時間可能不會很長。 這證實了我們的觀點,即我們不會因為眾所周知的過熱而看到該行業出現嚴重的衰退、下跌、泡沫或其他任何情況。 它只存在於一個片段上。

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • Understood, thank you, and maybe a follow-up on the 1900i. Initial orders have gone out over the last couple of quarters. Could you confirm how many they are and whether all of those will turn into shipments in 2007? Thank you.

    明白了,謝謝,也許可以跟進 1900i。 初始訂單已在過去幾個季度內發出。 您能否確認有多少,以及是否所有訂單都會在 2007 年出貨? 謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Oh, definitively, we're not booking for 2008, so yes, everything is going to happen in 2007 at this moment, but I remind you what we said last time. We said the customers will have to go first to a proved and qualification of [recipe] before they go and buy the further production units in volume. This is what happened in Q3. What I'm very happy to report is that, and in fact, you will read this in multiple newspapers and public statements, etc, the big guys are now saying that they are at the defect density and throughput and [overlay] etc that allows production.

    哦,當然,我們沒有為 2008 年預訂,所以是的,目前一切都將在 2007 年發生,但我提醒你我們上次說過的話。 我們說,客戶必須先對[配方]進行驗證和鑑定,然後才能大量購買其他生產單位。 這就是第三季發生的情況。 我很高興地報告的是,事實上,你會在多家報紙和公開聲明等中看到這一點,大公司現在表示,他們的缺陷密度、吞吐量和[覆蓋]等已經達到了允許生產的水平。

  • So that is now creating the wave of orders negotiation. Today, the numbers of orders we have for next year are limited. It's about five-ish, as I mentioned by saying that we have a backlog of about 15. So it's five for delivery in 2007. But the numbers of activities, that is, of, call it, open orders for 1700i and 1900i, and I mentioned in my speech that we had the two, because we've noticed now that those correspond to a marketing. This is being discussed, and we are encouraged, and this is why I mentioned this 70 units in a period of 18 months as an outlook that we confirm.

    因此現在正在掀起訂單談判的浪潮。 今天,我們明年的訂單數量有限。 大約是 5 台左右,正如我所提到的那樣,我們積壓了大約 15 台。因此,2007 年交付的有 5 台。但活動數量,也就是我們所說的 1700i 和 1900i 的未結訂單,我在演講中提到我們有這兩台,因為我們現在註意到它們與行銷相對應。 我們正在討論這個問題,我們對此感到鼓舞,這就是為什麼我提到在 18 個月內生產 70 個單位作為我們確認的前景。

  • Simon Schafer - Analyst

    Simon Schafer - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from [Herman Betten], [Betten Bears] Media. Go ahead please sir. Mr. Betten, are you there?

    下一個問題來自[Betten Bears] Media 的 [Herman Betten]。 先生,請繼續。 貝滕先生,您在嗎?

  • Herman Betten - Analyst

    Herman Betten - Analyst

  • Can you hear me now?

    現在你能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes we can.

    是的,我們可以。

  • Herman Betten - Analyst

    Herman Betten - Analyst

  • Yes, I was muting myself. Sorry about that. I'm afraid I'm going to have to continue a little bit longer about the Memory and the whole Flash thing. If my numbers are correct, you received orders in the last quarter in the Memory segment of more than EUR900m and I was wondering, given in the light of over-capacity in the market, first of all whether it's sustainable, and second of all, how you think the over-heating is limited to only 10% to 15% of revenue?

    是的,我正在讓自己保持沉默。 很抱歉。 恐怕我得繼續討論一下記憶體和整個 Flash 的事情。 如果我的數字正確的話,你們上個季度在記憶體領域收到的訂單超過 9 億歐元,我想知道,考慮到市場產能過剩,首先這種狀況是否可持續,其次,您認為過熱程度是否會被限制在收入的 10% 到 15% 之間?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Again, to answer your last part of the question, we have about estimated that on the period of nine months or so and the projected Q4 bookings, we will have a total Memory backlog, I would say, at about 55% to 60% of our sales. In there, we estimate that the Flash-only business is about half of it, and so that's, say, 30% of sales, and on which a very conservative person will see that half of it is over-booking, which is 15%.

    再次回答您問題的最後一部分,我們大約估計,在九個月左右的時間和預計的第四季度預訂量中,我們的內存積壓總量將占我們銷售額的 55% 到 60%。 其中,我們估計純 Flash 業務約佔一半,也就是銷售額的 30%,而非常保守的人會發現其中一半是超額預訂,即 15%。

  • And that's a very rough statement. We went into much more details to come up with those numbers, but this is the order of magnitude so I should tell you, very conservative way that this over-booking of 10% to 15% is not that exciting at this moment.

    這是一個非常粗略的說法。 我們進行了更詳細的研究才得出這些數字,但這是一個數量級,所以我應該以非常保守的方式告訴你,目前 10% 到 15% 的超額預訂並不那麼令人興奮。

  • Remember also one key word of our press release, which may not have been seen very well. We said 65 bookings expected in Q4 with upside. At this moment, we are seeing still a level of booking activity in the different sectors, Foundry, IDM, Flash and DRAM, that would sustain higher than 65. We have, however, considered that 65 would be a conservative number, which corresponds to a conservative projection of the numbers of ICs that to be built in 2007.

    也要記住我們新聞稿中的一個關鍵字,這個詞可能不太容易被看清楚。 我們表示,預計第四季的預訂量將達到 65 個,並且還有上升空間。 目前,我們看到代工、IDM、快閃記憶體和 DRAM 等不同領域的預訂活動水準仍將維持在 65 以上。然而,我們認為 65 是一個保守的數字,這對應於 2007 年要生產的 IC 數量的保守預測。

  • Herman Betten - Analyst

    Herman Betten - Analyst

  • Okay, would it also be fair to assume the 50-50 spread between Flash and DRAM also for Q3?

    好的,那麼假設第三季 Flash 和 DRAM 之間的差距也是 50-50 是否也公平?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Yes we were trying to, in fact, help you with this, but we came up with a complication that a big, now nearly a third -- no, more than a third, it is a third and a half of our Flash holders could be DRAM also. They are switchable, so at the last moment, it's very, very complicated to know for us where it goes.

    是的,事實上,我們試圖幫助您解決這個問題,但是我們發現了一個複雜的問題,現在幾乎三分之一 — — 不,超過三分之一,而是三分之一半的閃存容器也可能是 DRAM。 它們是可切換的,所以在最後一刻,我們很難知道它會去哪裡。

  • Herman Betten - Analyst

    Herman Betten - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks a lot.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Titus Menzies, Jeffery & Company.

    下一個問題來自 Jeffery & Company 的 Titus Menzies。

  • Titus Menzies - Analyst

    Titus Menzies - Analyst

  • Good morning gentlemen, this is Titus Menzies here. A quick question on lead times, how have they evolved in Q3 since Q2? Have they stretched, and are you seeing any double ordering coming through at all?

    先生們早安,我是泰特斯·孟席斯。 關於交貨時間的快速問題,自第二季以來,第三季的交貨時間有何變化? 它們是否已經伸展開來?您是否看過任何重複訂購的情況?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • On the lead time, on the one hand, we made very good internal progress, and that has been translated, as you can see, from an inventory perspective. The bad news is, and I'm going to be very clear with you, because we are booking a lot, we are very near our capacities on certain numbers of critical manufacturing areas. So we have not fully reflected to the customers the possibility to do what we can technically do, which is less than six months lead time. So in other terms, on some orders, we are asking customers to put orders with nine months return or so, which normally we would be able to do better than that.

    就交貨時間而言,一方面,我們取得了非常好的內部進展,而且從庫存角度來看,這一點已經得到體現。 壞消息是,我要非常清楚地告訴你,因為我們預訂了很多,所以我們在某些​​關鍵製造領域的產能已經非常接近飽和。 因此,我們還沒有向客戶充分反映我們在技術上能夠做到的事情的可能性,而交付週期不到六個月。 換句話說,對於某些訂單,我們要求客戶下單時考慮九個月左右的回報期,通常我們可以做得更好。

  • Do we have double booking? From our position at this moment, with all the parameters we look at, like utilization rates and the identification of where those machines go, we would be highly surprised to discover double booking.

    我們有重複預訂嗎? 從我們目前的立場來看,根據我們所關注的所有參數,例如利用率和這些機器的去向,我們會非常驚訝地發現重複預訂。

  • Remember also what we said to you last time, in fact two times in a row. We are now identifying new lines, new FAB lines. Normally identifying FAB lines is easier for us to size the typical needs, and all our orders correspond to, at this moment, a real project. So to your point, if you guys expect that something bad is going to happen, and know everybody will cancel the orders, it would be really, if the IC business is collapsing by a major factor.

    還記得我們上次對你說的話,其實是連續說了兩次。 我們現在正在尋找新的生產線、新的 FAB 生產線。 通常,識別 FAB 生產線可以讓我們更輕鬆地確定典型需求,並且目前我們的所有訂單都與一個真實項目相對應。 所以就你的觀點而言,如果你們預計會發生一些不好的事情,並且知道每個人都會取消訂單,那麼如果 IC 業務因重大因素而崩潰,那將真的發生。

  • Titus Menzies - Analyst

    Titus Menzies - Analyst

  • Okay, so in terms of the i-Line and your [inaudible] --

    好的,就 i-Line 和你的 [聽不清楚] 而言——

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Titus, I'm afraid we're going to have to move on. Sorry, you've asked your question there. Thank you.

    泰特斯,恐怕我們必須繼續前進了。 抱歉,您已經在那裡提問了。 謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mehdi Hosseini, FBR. Go ahead please sir.

    下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。 先生,請繼續。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. If your unit expectation for next year is flattish, how should we think about revenue, and to that extent, to what extent blended ASP should improve? Thank you.

    是的,謝謝。 如果您對明年的單位預期持平,我們應該如何看待收入,以及在何種程度上,混合 ASP 應該會改善? 謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Well, we usually, and you heard me last year, and the year before, trying to avoid giving guidance on the next year, because again, I would like to give guidance only on facts, and it's very difficult sometimes to project a full year. But it is true this time on the press release you have seen us talk about 2007, which you should translate as a fairly comfortable body language which I would not do on a regular basis, and I would try to tell you about uncertainties of life, etc, etc, but we have given you a guidance.

    嗯,我們通常,正如你們去年和前年聽到的那樣,試圖避免對明年給予指導,因為我只想根據事實給予指導,而有時很難預測全年的情況。 但確實,這次在新聞發布會上,您看到我們談論了 2007 年,您應該將其翻譯成一種相當舒適的肢體語言,而我不會經常這樣做,我會嘗試告訴您生活中的不確定性等等,但我們已經給了您指導。

  • Let me read to you the guidance so that we understand it very, very carefully. We look first at a nominal forecast done by analysts about the number of units of ICs being projected and you heard single digit IC growth in 2007. So on these numbers, say between 7%-ish and 9%-ish, those same analysts have assimilated a lithography total business which is between 0% and -3% or something, so very stable. That is the first message we do.

    讓我向你們宣讀這份指南,以便我們非常非常仔細地理解它。 我們先來看看分析師對 IC 產量的名目預測,正如你所聽到的,2007 年 IC 的成長率為個位數。因此,根據這些數字,比如說在 7% 到 9% 之間,這些分析師已經吸收了光刻整體業務的成長在 0% 到 -3% 之間,因此非常穩定。 這是我們發出的第一個訊息。

  • If we believe these guys, you should immediately think that with our position in immersion, our position in those new customers, our position in i-Line, our position altogether, we're translating such a market share increase that you see 2007 in revenue as a fairly significant growth.

    如果我們相信這些人,你應該立即想到,憑藉我們在沉浸式體驗領域的地位、我們在這些新客戶中的地位、我們在 i-Line 中的地位以及我們的總體地位,我們正在實現如此大的市場份額增長,以至於你會看到 2007 年的收入實現了相當顯著的增長。

  • But again, this is only assumption of the analysts that I talked about. If you are the pessimists, as I heard two or three of you trying to tell me that there could be a major overheating that I don't see. So if there is an overheating with a correction -- significant correction which is negative to what the industry analysts say, then we believe that anyway, with our compensation due to market share, we do not expect to have a bad year in 2007.

    但再說一遍,這只是我所說的分析師的假設。 如果你們是悲觀主義者,正如我聽到的,你們中有兩三個人試圖告訴我,可能會出現嚴重的經濟過熱,但我沒有看到。 因此,如果出現過熱並伴隨調整——重大調整,與行業分析師的預測相反,那麼我們相信,無論如何,憑藉我們因市場份額而獲得的補償,我們預計 2007 年不會是糟糕的一年。

  • So in other terms, these are the two sets of guidance we gave you.

    換句話說,這就是我們給你的兩套指導。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Jay Deahna, JP Morgan. Go ahead please sir.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑伊·迪阿納 (Jay Deahna)。 先生,請繼續。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • Good evening your time. Eric, given your prepared commentary before the Q&A, especially your comments towards the end, the more stable cycles, the Company's position with technology, etc. Would it be fair to want to expect ASML's earnings '08 to be greater than '07, especially as immersion kicks in? I think it's pretty clear that '07 is up over '06. So what are your thoughts on that?

    晚上好,您的時間。 艾瑞克,考慮到你在問答環節之前準備好的評論,特別是你在結尾的評論、更穩定的周期、公司在技術方面的地位等。我們是否希望 ASML 2008 年的收益高於 2007 年,尤其是在沉浸式技術開始普及的情況下? 我認為 07 年明顯高於 06 年。 那麼您對此有何看法?

  • And I'm coming up with seven immersion units shipped in Q3, and the likelihood of 10 in Q4. Is that about right?

    我預計第三季將出貨 7 台沉浸式設備,第四季可能會出貨 10 台。 是這樣嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • [Literally] we have always said 25 -- 20 to 25 immersion tools in 2006. We are not -- we are never lying, Jay. But honestly, maybe 24 or 23. It's a question of execution. But we do have 25 planned and it [is impossible].

    [字面意思] 我們一直說 2006 年會有 25 到 25 種浸入式工具。我們不是——我們從來沒說謊,傑伊。 但說實話,也許是 24 或 23。這是一個執行的問題。 但我們確實計劃了 25 個,這是不可能的。

  • Regarding the 2008 point, obviously the type of scaling we are talking about with the new [method], very positive forecast for the total IC industry for 2008. So if we continue growing our top line, our scaling will significantly increase our gross margin.

    就 2008 年而言,顯然我們正在用新方法討論的擴展類型,對 2008 年整個 IC 產業的預測非常樂觀。因此,如果我們繼續增加營收,我們的擴展將顯著提高我們的毛利率。

  • You've seen that already on this quarter. I do apologize, we have been much higher than our 40% target, at 40.8%. So yes, there is significant upside on profitability in 2008 if we continue our [secondary] growth model and our immersion/leadership in technology in general.

    您在本季度已經看到了這一點。 我真的很抱歉,我們已經遠高於 40% 的目標,達到 40.8%。 所以是的,如果我們繼續我們的[次要]成長模式以及我們在技術領域的專注/領導地位,那麼2008年的獲利能力將有顯著的上升空間。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, Eric.

    非常感謝,埃里克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Robert Maire, Needham.

    下一個問題來自尼德姆的羅伯特·梅爾 (Robert Maire)。

  • Robert Maire - Analyst

    Robert Maire - Analyst

  • Yes. If you look at the opportunity of double exposure, obviously the number of scanners, steppers needed and light sources and edge tools increase, is that factored into your equation? And how much more upside do you think is there for the smaller geometries that are created by double patterning?

    是的。 如果您考慮雙重曝光的機會,顯然所需的掃描器、步進機以及光源和邊緣工具的數量會增加,這是否已計入您的方程式中? 您認為透過雙重圖案化技術創造的較小的幾何形狀還有多少優點?

  • And as related to that, does that perhaps push out requirements for immersion, in other words, doing double exposure for dry. You seem to indicate that as a bridge to EUV. Does that suggest that there might be more double exposure and less EUV ramp up?

    與此相關的是,這是否可能延長了浸泡的要求,換句話說,進行雙重曝光以達到乾燥效果。 您似乎認為這是通往 EUV 的橋樑。 這是否意味著可能會有更多的雙重曝光和更少的 EUV 提升?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • First of all, I don't think I'm wrong with this one, I don't think there will be any double patterning in production next year. And double patterning is sometime in 2008. Next year there is no forecast from our side that anybody would go in significant volume with double patterning. You know the big names who have announced some double-patterning work. But this is not production.

    首先,我不認為我對此有什麼錯誤,我認為明年的生產中不會出現任何雙重模式。 雙重圖案化將在 2008 年的某個時候實現。我們預測明年不會有人大規模採用雙重圖案化。 您知道那些已經宣布了一些雙重模式工作的大牌人物。 但這不是生產。

  • Two is you've got multiple ways of killing the cat, which is getting to your next generation node. You can do double patterning dry. You can do double patterning. When I say double patterning, double patterning or double exposure, and people, there are different ways of doing it. But it's okay using twice as a definition. So double patterning dry, double patterning immersion. Then you have EUV, as options.

    二是你有多種方法可以殺死貓,也就是進入你的下一代節點。 您可以進行乾式雙重圖案化。 您可以進行雙重圖案化。 當我說雙重圖案、雙重圖案或雙重曝光時,人們有不同的做法。 但使用兩次作為定義是可以的。 因此,雙重圖案乾燥,雙重圖案浸泡。 那麼你就有了 EUV 作為選擇。

  • Then you have some people playing with different ways of designing, more layers for vertical structures, you are talking about the special technology which allows you probably to have less critical lithography tools, but much more lithography tools, etc., etc.

    然後,有些人嘗試不同的設計方式,為垂直結構增加更多層,您正在談論的特殊技術可能使您擁有不那麼關鍵的光刻工具,但擁有更多的光刻工具,等等。

  • So every year those companies are playing with this. And you would have potentially one saying my solution is better than another, etc., etc. What we're sure is that in the year 2010 or '11, if you are conservative, EUV is the cheapest way.

    所以每年這些公司都在玩這個。 你可能會聽到有人說我的解決方案比另一個更好,等等。我們可以肯定的是,在 2010 年或 2011 年,如果你保守一點,EUV 是最便宜的方式。

  • Robert Maire - Analyst

    Robert Maire - Analyst

  • Okay. So your assumptions going forward are assuming the industry goes to EUV and is not as expensive a user of double patterning?

    好的。 那麼,您對未來的假設是,假設該行業將採用 EUV,並且雙重圖案化的成本不會那麼高?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • No. I said that between now, that is between 2008 and 2010, you are going to see people in double patterning. Good news, by the way, for all of us. And during 2010, 2009, end of 2009, 2010, you probably will see Flash people going full steam with EUV, because EUV is much cheaper for those guys who have limited number of masks, longer -- very high volume -- high demand on throughput, versus the Logic people who may prefer double patterning.

    不,我說的是,從現在開始,也就是 2008 年到 2010 年之間,你會看到人們處於雙重模式。 順便說一句,這對我們所有人來說都是好消息。 在 2010 年、2009 年以及 2009 年底,你可能會看到 Flash 公司的人全力使用 EUV,因為對於那些掩模數量有限、時間較長(產量非常大)且對吞吐量要求高的人來說,EUV 要便宜得多,而 Logic 公司的人可能更喜歡雙重圖案化。

  • So, in other terms, 2009/10 is a transition where you would have X% doing one thing and Y% doing the other. This is great news for us because there is no way we would be able to have the capacity to take 100% of the business in EUV in the first year. So this staged-in approach is good.

    因此,換句話說,2009/10 是一個過渡期,其中 X% 做一件事,Y% 做另一件事。 這對我們來說是個好消息,因為我們不可能在第一年就承擔 100% 的 EUV 業務。 所以這種分階段的方法是好的。

  • And that plays into the secular growth model that we have. If you put in your model in 2008 some double patterning, in 2009, some double patterning and the start of EUV, and 2010, a lot of that [with the price] you see, it looks good.

    這符合我們現有的長期成長模式。 如果你在 2008 年的模型中加入一些雙重圖案,在 2009 年加入一些雙重圖案和 EUV 的開始,以及在 2010 年加入很多這些(加上價格),你會看到,情況看起來不錯。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thanks, Robert.

    謝謝,羅伯特。

  • Robert Maire - Analyst

    Robert Maire - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Thomas Brenier, Societe Generale. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Thomas Brenier。 請繼續。

  • Thomas Brenier - Analyst

    Thomas Brenier - Analyst

  • Yes. Good afternoon. I'd like to know if the EUR105m R&D for Q4 is going to be the run rate for 2007. And also if we should consider higher guidance than the usual EUR75 to EUR80m for services and [fleet] options as this has been over EUR100m [technical difficulty].

    是的。 午安. 我想知道第四季的 1.05 億歐元研發費用是否會成為 2007 年的運作率。此外,我們是否應該考慮比通常的 7500 萬至 8000 萬歐元服務和[車隊]選項更高的指導金額,因為這已經超過了 1 億歐元[技術難度]。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Okay. So Peter will handle the options questions. Regarding the R&D, the decision we've taken is to put as much R&D as our P&L can afford so that we can put in our developments and introduce products earlier and create, therefore, a major differentiator in this business. So we will put them on it if we can afford. At this moment we think that there is, say, a good vision on 2007. So we therefore believe that the number will be higher than EUR105m before.

    好的。 因此 Peter 將處理選項問題。 關於研發,我們所做的決定是,在利潤可承受的範圍內投入盡可能多的研發,以便我們能夠儘早投入開發並推出產品,從而在這個行業中創造出巨大的差異化優勢。 所以如果我們能負擔得起的話,我們就會把它們放上去。 目前,我們認為對 2007 年有一個良好的願景。因此,我們相信該數字將高於先前的 1.05 億歐元。

  • Peter Wennink - CFO

    Peter Wennink - CFO

  • For me, a specialty question. The service and options sales, yes, we've already done about EUR75m over the last couple of quarters. You've seen that that has trended above that number. The fixed part of that sales, which is basically revenue from service contracts, which has always been about EUR50m, is trending up. It's about 10% up. And the same is, I would say, true of the option sales.

    對我來說,這是一個特殊問題。 是的,服務和選項銷售額在過去幾季已經達到了約 7,500 萬歐元。 你已經看到,該數字已經超過這個趨勢。 銷售額的固定部分,基本上是來自服務合約的收入,一直約為 5000 萬歐元,呈上升趨勢。 大約上漲了10%。 我想說的是,選擇權銷售也是如此。

  • So if you want adjust your models, then I would suggest that [inaudible] 75 between 80 and 85 per quarter is probably, going forward, a bit safer now.

    因此,如果您想調整模型,那麼我建議 [聽不清楚] 每季 75 到 80 之間可能現在會更安全一些。

  • Thomas Brenier - Analyst

    Thomas Brenier - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Mr. Amin, Citigroup. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿明先生。 請繼續。

  • Mr. Amin - Analyst

    Mr. Amin - Analyst

  • Yes. Hi guys. A quick question. As I believe it, you are going to be ramping capacity by around 10% a quarter next year as your current potential maximum new tools a quarter is around 75-ish. What gives you confidence in increased shipments next year and beyond that this capacity will be needed, given that currently you're shipping around the 60 new tools per quarter? I mean how soon will you need this new capacity, do you think?

    是的。嗨,大家好。 一個簡單的問題。 我相信,由於您目前每季的潛在最大新工具數量約為 75 件左右,因此明年您的產能將每季提高約 10%。 鑑於目前您每季運送約 60 件新工具,為什麼您對明年及以後運送量增加有信心並且相信需要這種產能? 我的意思是,您認為多久之後就會需要這種新產能?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • I am hesitating because I know some of you will put in the newspaper immediately my key long-term forecast. No, I think we have published often our target to be EUR5b of revenue in the foreseeable future. This is not a forecast. This is simulated in the numbers that says if people go and do the double patterning, a bit of EUV and grow by, say, 7% or so of units per year, we should get there soon. So in other words, by 2010.

    我之所以猶豫,是因為我知道你們中的一些人會立即把我的關鍵長期預測登在報紙上。 不,我認為我們經常公佈的目標是在可預見的未來實現 50 億歐元的收入。 這不是預測。 這是透過數位模擬得出的,表明如果人們去做雙重圖案化,使用一點 EUV,並且每年以 7% 左右的速度增長,我們應該很快就能達到目標。 換句話說,到 2010 年。

  • So yes, we absolutely need the capacity. And yes, we are a bit ahead of the roadmap.

    所以是的,我們絕對需要這種能力。 是的,我們比路線圖領先了一點。

  • Mr. Amin - Analyst

    Mr. Amin - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。 謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Marcel van de Hoef, Bloomberg.

    下一個問題來自彭博社的馬塞爾‧范德霍夫。

  • Marcel van de Hoef - Analyst

    Marcel van de Hoef - Analyst

  • Yes. I'm double checking something actually. Let's say the market is concerned about a downturn, would you say that risk is mostly in Flash and that the maximum impact on revenue in 2007 would be 10 to 15%, or is that completely incorrect?

    是的。 我實際上正在仔細檢查一些事情。 假設市場擔心經濟衰退,您是否認為風險主要在於 Flash,並且對 2007 年收入的最大影響將是 10% 到 15%?還是這種說法完全不正確?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • The total here is 10 to 15%. So if you have a correction on one quarter, you could have much more impact than 10 to 15%. But remember we are now talking about overall quarters, about EUR1b or so, EUR1.1b. So these corrections could still get us into areas of magnitude of EUR500m a quarter, which is why we are not getting too worried.

    這裡的總數是 10% 到 15%。 因此,如果你對一個季度進行調整,其影響可能會遠遠超過 10% 到 15%。 但請記住,我們現在談論的是整個季度,大約10億歐元左右,11億歐元。 因此,這些調整仍可能使我們進入每季 5 億歐元的規模,這就是我們不太擔心的原因。

  • Marcel van de Hoef - Analyst

    Marcel van de Hoef - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Didier Scemama, ABN Amro. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自荷蘭銀行的 Didier Scemama。 請繼續。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks for taking my question. My question is as follows. Basically, we are starting to see companies getting out of the NAND Flash market, such as [Kimonda]. Admittedly small players. A lot of companies have gone in NAND Flash, attracted by the volume growth over the next few years, and they have really been beaten down by some of your customers.

    是的。 感謝您回答我的問題。 我的問題如下。 基本上,我們開始看到一些公司退出 NAND Flash 市場,例如 [Kimonda]。 無可否認,他們是小玩家。 許多公司都進入了 NAND Flash 領域,受到未來幾年產量成長的吸引,但他們確實被一些客戶打敗了。

  • So my question would be in the event that the market in NAND Flash would actually reconsolidate around maybe three players, two of them being major DRAM vendors, what would be the impact on your business going forward, do you think?

    所以我的問題是,如果 NAND Flash 市場實際上重新整合為三個左右的參與者,其中兩家是主要的 DRAM 供應商,您認為這會對您未來的業務產生什麼影響?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • In fact, today, I guess we are in every Flash manufacturers. I think it is now not a secret that we are working with Toshiba. Obviously, we are working with Samsung. We are working with IM Flash. We are working with Hynix, etc., etc. So it will be completely irrelevant for us if there is consolidation.

    事實上,今天我猜我們在每個Flash製造商中都有。 我認為我們與東芝合作現在已不是什麼秘密了。 顯然,我們正在與三星合作。 我們正在與 IM Flash 合作。 我們正在與海力士等公司合作。因此,如果進行整合,對我們來說完全無關緊要。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

    好的。 謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Janardan Menon, Dresdner. Go ahead please sir.

    下一個問題來自德勒斯登銀行的 Janardan Menon。 先生,請繼續。

  • Janardan Menon - Analyst

    Janardan Menon - Analyst

  • Yes. Hi. Thanks. I was just wondering about the -- going back to the comment that if the industry grows at single digit in 2007 it should translate into flattish lithography demand. You said that that's the view from analysts. I'm just wondering what your own view on that number is because just to put that -- the reason I'm asking is in 2005 the industry grew at about mid-single digit, but your shipments fell by about 30% year on year in 2005. So I was just wondering how to reconcile that fall with a potential single-digit rise next year.

    是的。 你好。 謝謝。 我只是想知道——回到剛才的評論,如果 2007 年該行業以個位數增長,那麼光刻需求應該會持平。 您說這是分析師的觀點。 我只是想知道您對這個數字的看法,因為這麼說吧——我問這個問題的原因是,2005 年該行業的增長率約為個位數中段,但你們的出貨量卻同比下降了約 30%。所以我只是想知道如何將這一下降與明年可能出現的個位數成長相協調。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Be cautious, we are always talking about sales value, because units is not the right number to look at for us. So we look at units of semiconductors, and that translates into value.

    要小心,我們總是在談論銷售價值,因為單位對我們來說並不是正確的數字。 因此,我們查看半導體單位,並將其轉換為價值。

  • Yes, we did simulate to check what the analysts are saying. And we have a simulation tool ourselves. And we put the single-digit forecast for 2007. And the result is not very far from the analysts'. I will not be very, very specific. But it's not very far. We believe we can tweak a bit the new model if it goes up or down depending on how fast some nodes happen.

    是的,我們確實進行了模擬來檢查分析師的說法。 而且我們自己有一個模擬工具。 我們對2007年做出了個位數的預測,結果與分析師的預測相差不大。 我不會說得非常非常具體。 但距離不是很遠。 我們相信,如果新模型根據某些節點發生的速度上升或下降,我們可以對其進行一些調整。

  • And remember, this is why in my speech at the beginning I said we are very hopeful the 65 nanometer is ramping in even more volume. In fact, you should try to translate that sentence in ASML terms. That means hooray, we are selling a lot of 1400. And it is now a 1400 business compared to what is an ARF business at EUR20m, compared to a KRF business at EUR10m.

    請記住,這就是為什麼我在一開始的演講中說我們非常希望 65 奈米能夠進一步擴大產量。 事實上,你應該嘗試用 ASML 術語來翻譯這句話。 這意味著萬歲,我們賣出了許多 1400 輛。與價值 2000 萬歐元的 ARF 業務相比,現在這是一個 1400 輛的業務,與價值 1000 萬歐元的 KRF 業務相比。

  • So these things make a big difference in your simulation tools. But, I repeat, we are very comfortable with the mechanics of those. Peter?

    所以這些因素會對您的模擬工具產生很大的影響。 但我重申,我們對這些機制非常滿意。 彼得?

  • Peter Wennink - CFO

    Peter Wennink - CFO

  • Yes, I'd like to just add one thing because you are comparing -- you're bringing 2005 into play. In 2005, you are right. The numbers were, indeed, down. But our sales were up. And sales were driven by market share gains and by ASP growth. That sounds a bit more doesn't it.

    是的,我只想補充一點,因為你在比較——你把 2005 年帶入了遊戲。 2005年,你說得對。 數字確實下降了。 但我們的銷售額上升了。 銷售額的成長得益於市場佔有率的成長和平均售價的成長。 這聽起來有點多不是嗎?

  • Janardan Menon - Analyst

    Janardan Menon - Analyst

  • So you're talking revenue staying flat rather than unit?

    所以您說的是收入不變而不是單位不變?

  • Peter Wennink - CFO

    Peter Wennink - CFO

  • In 2005 revenue was up and you talked about units were down.

    2005 年收入上升,但您提到的銷售量卻下降了。

  • Janardan Menon - Analyst

    Janardan Menon - Analyst

  • Sure. Absolutely. Thank you very much.

    當然。 絕對地。 非常感謝。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mark FitzGerald, Bank of America. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬克·菲茨傑拉德。 請繼續。

  • Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

    Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

  • It's a two-part question. Can you give us some idea of ASML's position in the microprocessor industry for 45 nanometers?

    這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。 您能否向我們介紹一下 ASML 在 45 奈米微處理器產業中的地位?

  • And the second part are there any -- was there [turns] business in the current quarter just reported [more than] in the December quarter?

    第二部分是,本季的業務量是否比 12 月季度增加?

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Could you repeat your last question, what was it on the turns business?

    您能否重複一下您的最後一個問題,關於轉彎業務的內容是什麼?

  • Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

    Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

  • Turns business in the September quarter, was there any [turn]?

    9 月季度業務出現轉機,有變化嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • The issue of microprocessor, I am cautious because, of course, we are talking about two customers. What can I tell you which is okay?

    對於微處理器的問題,我很謹慎,因為當然,我們正在談論兩個客戶。 我能告訴你什麼可以嗎?

  • Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

    Mark FitzGerald - Analyst

  • Do you expect to gain any layers in terms of your penetration at 45 nanometers?

    您是否期望在 45 奈米的滲透方面獲得任何進展?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • This discussion is in progress. And it -- let me say it this way, if our product is superior to the competition which, in this case, is Nikon, there should be no reason why our current market progression -- market share progression doesn't continue, if I may say this way.

    該討論正在進行中。 並且 — — 讓我這樣說吧,如果我們的產品優於競爭對手(在本例中是尼康),那麼我們的當前市場進步 — — 市場份額進步就沒有理由不繼續,如果我可以這樣說的話。

  • I think it's also public to say these decisions are not yet taken by the big guys. And a sure thing that I can tell you is you should ask them which machine they used to show double patterning 45 nanometer sample. That could tell you why we have some hope.

    我認為公開地說這些決定還沒有由大公司做出也是可以的。 我可以肯定地告訴你,你應該問他們使用哪台機器來展示雙重圖案化的 45 奈米樣品。 這可以告訴你為什麼我們抱持希望。

  • Regarding your issue of turns, no. Minimum turns in Q3 and Q4, but maximum pressure to put orders. But we could not basically do it.

    關於你的轉彎問題,沒有。 Q3 和 Q4 的轉彎次數最少,但下訂單的壓力最大。 但我們基本上做不到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Are you ready to take the next question, sir?

    先生,您準備好回答下一個問題了嗎?

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Yes please.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. [Karen Holshouse], Credit Suisse. Go ahead please.

    謝謝。 [Karen Holshouse],瑞士信貸。 請繼續。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Yes, hi. It's actually [inaudible]. I've got a question on NAND Flash. We think there is a lot of capacity on memory that's still running on 200 millimeters, especially on NAND. How long do you think chip companies can push NAND on 200 millimeters? And specifically on what level of activity are you seeing with immersion lithography on 200 millimeter? And I have a quick follow up.

    是的,你好。 這其實是[聽不清楚]。 我有一個關於 NAND Flash 的問題。 我們認為,在 200 毫米晶圓上仍有許多記憶體容量,尤其是 NAND。 您認為晶片公司能在 200 毫米上推動 NAND 多久? 您具體看到 200 毫米浸沒式微影技術的活動量如何? 我有一個快速的跟進。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • No, immersion is going to be only on 300. Maybe a bit of R&D is at this moment made on 200, and we help. So clearly we helped these customers that had done that. But production at this moment, I don't know if any would go in volume production with 200. It would be 300.

    不,沉浸感只會在 300 上實現。也許目前正在對 200 進行一些研發,我們會提供協助。 顯然,我們幫助了這些這樣做的客戶。 但就目前的產量而言,我不知道是否會大量生產 200 輛。應該是 300 輛。

  • And the rest of the 200 millimeter will be continuing on the old technology Flash. And, as you know, some of those things are being moved into China.

    其餘 200 毫米將繼續沿用舊技術 Flash。 而且如你所知,其中一些東西正在被運往中國。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay. And a follow up. Your comment about Flash, that Flash is weak. And given that that will be the first segment to ramp immersion and volume production next year on 300, am I correct in thinking that over half the immersion systems that you're shipping this year are perhaps R&D for chip companies? And is there a risk that if Flash capacity [admissions] come down, that the number of immersion systems that you ship next year may not grow as rapidly as the 70 unit number that you were talking about?

    好的。 並進行後續跟進。 您對 Flash 的評論是,Flash 很弱。 鑑於這將是第一個在明年實現 300 台浸入式系統量產的部門,我是否可以正確地認為,今年你們交付的浸入式系統中有一半以上可能是晶片公司的研發? 如果 Flash 容量 [入場人數] 下降,那麼明年你們出貨的沉浸式系統的數量可能不會像你們所說的 70 個那麼快增長,是否存在風險?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • I think, again, I would say no chance to be -- to have a bad performance here. If ever there is a correction, as people would expect if the overheating continues, but that correction happened after you go in battle. So the battle hasn't started. Capacity hasn't been set up. And most of the tools we have shipped, and we shipped 25 tools, will be used and will be half in production. There is another batch of [ex] immersion tools which will have to be put into production before the battle starts.

    我想,我會再說一遍,在這裡不可能有糟糕的表現。 如果真的出現修正,正如人們所預料的那樣,如果過熱持續下去,修正就會發生在你投入戰鬥之後。 所以戰鬥尚未開始。 容量尚未設定。 在我們運送的 25 種工具中,大部分都將被使用,其中一半將投入生產。 還有另一批[ex]沉浸式工具必須在戰鬥開始前投入生產。

  • Then the battle starts and then somebody says either you go out of business or I stop buying, and this is when I am calling for the potential famous correction which we expect not to be too large anyway.

    然後戰鬥就開始了,然後有人說,要么你破產,要么我停止購買,這時我呼籲進行潛在的著名調整,我們預計調整幅度不會太大。

  • Peter Wennink - CFO

    Peter Wennink - CFO

  • But there is no doubt in our minds, let's be real, that the 40 nanometer tool we are going to introduce next year, that everything we can make we will sell. There is so much demand for that additional shrink. There is no doubt in our mind that whatever the overcapacity would be that that would put a lid on our capability to actually sell those. There's no doubt in our minds. We will sell those.

    但我們心中毫不懷疑,讓我們面對現實吧,我們明年將推出的 40 奈米工具,我們製造的所有產品都將出售。 這種額外收縮的需求非常大。 我們毫不懷疑,無論產能過剩程度如何,都會限制我們實際銷售這些產品的能力。 我們對此毫不懷疑。 我們會出售這些。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • By the way, to be clear, some of our tools -- immersion tools are today in production at multiple customers, like 65 nanometer in immersion. So you can imagine that if immersion -- the effect of density gets to the right level, immersion will increase the performance of the chip at 65. So people will use those [inaudible] to differentiate themselves, bring more performance into each chip. So we're not very, very worried about immersion to be only limited to 45 nano or 55 nano.

    順便說一句,需要明確的是,我們的一些工具——浸入式工具目前已在多個客戶處投入生產,例如 65 奈米浸入式工具。 所以你可以想像,如果沉浸感——密度的影響達到正確的水平,沉浸感將會提高晶片在 65% 時的性能。所以人們會利用這些 [聽不清楚] 來讓自己與眾不同,為每個晶片帶來更高的效能。 因此,我們並不太擔心浸入度僅限於 45 奈米或 55 奈米。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from [Alan Sogne], [General Capital]. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自 [General Capital] 的 [Alan Sogne]。 請繼續。

  • Alan Sogne - Analyst

    Alan Sogne - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to get an update on your thoughts on share repurchase. It looks as if you shrunk the shares down about 3% in the quarter, and the cash performance is very good. So I would hope while in order for investors to be focused on the short term, you'd take advantage of the stock price here and continue to repurchase stock.

    感謝您回答我的問題。 我想了解一下您對股票回購的看法。 看起來你們在本季縮減了約 3% 的股價,而且現金表現非常好。 因此,我希望,為了讓投資者專注於短期利益,您可以利用這裡的股價並繼續回購股票。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Today?

    今天?

  • Alan Sogne - Analyst

    Alan Sogne - Analyst

  • I'm sorry?

    對不起?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • I had a joke. Today I think we should jump.

    我講了一個笑話。 今天我覺得我們應該跳。

  • Peter Wennink - CFO

    Peter Wennink - CFO

  • I think on that question I think we can just basically reiterate what we have said before. We have this EUR1b of our net cash target which we started the year off with, and cash flow generated we have put into share buyback programs. Now absent any major M&A deals, which are currently not on our radar screen, we will continue what we are doing.

    我認為在這個問題上我們基本上可以重申我們之前說過的話。 我們的年初淨現金目標是 10 億歐元,並將產生的現金流量投入股票回購計畫。 現在沒有任何重大的併購交易(目前不在我們的關注範圍內),我們將繼續我們正在做的事情。

  • And this is not the moment in time to announce the next share buyback because there are, of course, disclosure requirements. So we will do that at the right time and based the right place. But clearly the, I would say, buyback strategy of the Company has not changed.

    現在還不是宣布下一次股票回購的時機,因為當然有揭露要求。 因此,我們會在正確的時間和正確的地點做這件事。 但我想說的是,顯然公司的回購策略並沒有改變。

  • And with the, like we said also in the introductory talk, are looking forward to 2007 quarters being strong in terms of generation of cash. It's not difficult to imagine what the execution of that strategy will be for our Company.

    正如我們在介紹性演講中所說的那樣,我們期待 2007 年季度在現金產生方面表現強勁。 不難想像這項策略的實施將對我們公司產生什麼影響。

  • Alan Sogne - Analyst

    Alan Sogne - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。 非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mark Bachman, Pacific Crest Securities. Go ahead please sir.

    下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Mark Ba​​rman。 先生,請繼續。

  • Mark Bachman - Analyst

    Mark Bachman - Analyst

  • Thank you and good evening. This is Mark Bachman at Pacific Crest. Two questions for me here. First, Eric, you stated your 20 to 25 immersion tools as per for 2006 still stands. But you also mentioned that you are building additional [end] tools here for early 2007. Is there possible upside potential of the 20 to 25 estimate with additional shipments in Q4?

    謝謝,晚上好。 我是 Pacific Crest 的馬克巴赫曼。 這裡有兩個問題想問我。 首先,艾瑞克,您說過,2006 年的 20 到 25 種浸入式工具仍然有效。 但您也提到,您正在為 2007 年初打造更多工具。如果第四季有更多出貨,那麼預計的 20 到 25 個工具數量有可能上升嗎?

  • And then just a follow on to that, can you discuss the technology mix of all sales in Q3 and how that mix is going to be changing into Q4, and maybe specifically call out the effects of i-Line? Thank you.

    然後接著問,您能否討論一下第三季所有銷售的技術組合以及這種組合在第四季度將如何變化,並具體談談 i-Line 的影響? 謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Excuse me, the last part of the question is? [Inaudible]. So first of all, no upside in Q4 for immersion. We just don't have the capacity to do more at this moment of exceptional capacity demand, etc. So we could have shipped more. There is the demand for that. But we will not have upside.

    請問,問題的最後一部分是? [聽不清楚]。 首先,第四季沉浸感沒有任何提升空間。 在當前產能需求異常旺盛等情況下,我們沒有能力做更多的事情。所以我們本來可以運送更多貨物。 有這樣的需求。 但我們不會有好處。

  • Regarding the overall mix of the Company, you have seen that i-Line represents only 10%, 9%-ish of our backlog. We expect, as I said, to double that business. But we -- as we said some time during the call that we also expect to grow the total [inaudible]. So I wonder where we will -- where i-Line will reach. So, at this moment, you should probably think that i-Line will not go to 20% of our sales, but probably will go around 15%-ish.

    就公司的整體結構而言,您已經看到 i-Line 僅占我們積壓訂單的 10% 到 9% 左右。 正如我所說,我們期望該業務量會翻倍。 但是,正如我們在電話會議中所說的那樣,我們也希望增加總額[聽不清楚]。 所以我想知道 i-Line 將會達到什麼程度。 因此,目前,您可能認為 i-Line 不會占到我們銷售額的 20%,但可能會佔 15% 左右。

  • Mark Bachman - Analyst

    Mark Bachman - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Stuart Adrian, Morgan Stanley. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Stuart Adrian。 請繼續。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Yes. Hi there. Hopefully a relatively straightforward clarification. Just looking at the wording for the 2007 guidance, you basically say litho demand [price] now falls in '07 expected to be about the '06 level. Now, does that mean that the 265 units that you think you're going to ship in '06, if I just take your fourth-quarter guidance, you think you're going to ship 265 units in '07, which basically implies, one assumes, ASPs go up and therefore you're going to see some pretty decent revenue growth in '07? Or basically are you saying that '07 revenues are going to be flat with '06?

    是的。 你好呀。 希望這是一個相對直接的澄清。 只看 2007 年指導意見的措辭,你基本上會說 2007 年光刻需求 [價格] 預計會下降到 2006 年的水平。 現在,這是否意味著,您認為 2006 年您將出貨 265 台,如果我只採用您第四季度的指導,您認為 2007 年您將出貨 265 台,這基本上意味著,人們認為,平均銷售價格會上升,因此您將在 2007 年看到相當可觀的收入增長? 或者您基本上是說 07 年的收入將與 06 年持平?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • No. I'm so sorry about the confusing sentence. And I think I tried to say at the beginning of the call, you have to put yourself into assumptions. We don't call a forecast, we call assumptions. If you take the assumptions of the whole litho business as stable, as the analysts say, then there will be significant growth.

    不,我很抱歉這句話讓我困惑。 我想我在通話開始時就試著說過,你必須對自己做出假設。 我們不稱之為預測,我們稱之為假設。 如果像分析師所說的那樣,認為整個光刻業務是穩定的,那麼就會出現顯著的成長。

  • If you are a naysayer and you feel that the analysts do not understand that Flash is really going down the tube, etc., and there is a correction, you should put us about flat in revenue.

    如果您是反對者,而您認為分析師不了解 Flash 確實正在走向衰落等,並且存在修正,那麼您應該讓我們的收入持平。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Okay. So if you think litho market is flat in '07 versus '06, you can still take market share in that environment. So therefore your revenues will grow in '07 relative to the '06 level?

    好的。 因此,如果您認為 2007 年光刻市場與 2006 年持平,那麼您仍然可以在這種環境下佔據市場份額。 那麼,你們 07 年的收入相對於 06 年的水準會有所成長嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

    好的。 謝謝。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • And the fact that you foresee to say these things is, again, a vote of confidence. Usually, I remember, I have often said we don't know, we don't know, we don't know. But the current things we know, the long-term backlog we have has enabled us the discussion we have with the customers for the project, allows me to -- forces me to tell you that we are on a range of success, or good success for 2007.

    而您預見到會說出這些話,這又是一種信任投票。 平常我記得我常常說我們不知道,我們不知道,我們不知道。 但就我們目前所知,我們長期積壓的工作使我們能夠與客戶就該專案進行討論,這讓我能夠告訴您,我們在 2007 年將取得一系列成功,或者說取得良好的成功。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

    好的。 謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Antoine Badel, Credit Suisse. Go ahead please.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Antoine Badel。 請繼續。

  • Antoine Badel - Analyst

    Antoine Badel - Analyst

  • Yes. Good afternoon. I want to come back to your order guidance please. You've said that you're already seeing upside to 65 orders for Q4. And you cautioned against extrapolating that decline into a trend. So my question is how big is the swing factor for Q4? And what are the possible scenarios beyond that? Are you saying you expect orders to stabilize in the early part of next year or to rebound?

    是的。 午安.我想回到您的訂單指南。 您曾說過,您已經看到第四季訂單量上升至 65 個。 您也告誡我們不要將這種下降推斷為一種趨勢。 所以我的問題是第四季的波動因素有多大? 除此之外還可能出現哪些狀況? 您是說預計訂單將在明年年初穩定下來或出現反彈嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • This is a problem of those bookings. You never know. We can again surprise all of you and say 65 plus is a significant amount. We can just be at 65. But that does not change the fact that, to answer [inaudible] question, that there is significant engine of growth for 2007 in billings, and that at this moment obviously yes, we see them for Q1 and Q2 because this is within our lead time. And there is a bit more uncertainty in Q3 and Q4 which is why then you have to simulate stuff.

    這是那些預訂的問題。 你永遠不知道。 我們可以再次讓大家感到驚訝,65 歲以上是一個相當大的數字。 我們可以剛好達到 65 個。但這並不能改變事實,回答 [聽不清楚] 問題,即 2007 年帳單中有顯著的成長引擎,而且目前顯然是的,我們看到第一季和第二季的成長引擎,因為這在我們的交貨時間內。 而第三季和第四季的不確定性要大一些,這就是為什麼你必須進行模擬。

  • But the bookings trend is going to be a dangerous thing for you to try to make value of. Now we all know this number is going to psychologically impact our evaluation, etc., but it doesn't really change the picture at this moment. Whether we have 65 units, which is still very strong bookings at a quarter, whether we have 85 or more, this will not change again significantly the picture of the first two quarters and will just solidify Q3 and Q4. But then most people would have put orders ahead of that.

    但對於試圖從預訂趨勢中獲取價值的人來說,這將是一件危險的事情。 現在我們都知道這個數字會在心理上影響我們的評估等等,但它目前並沒有真正改變現狀。 無論我們是否有 65 輛(這在一個季度中仍然是非常強勁的預訂量),無論我們有 85 輛或更多,這都不會再次顯著改變前兩個季度的狀況,而只會鞏固第三季度和第四季度的業績。 但大多數人都會提前下訂單。

  • Antoine Badel - Analyst

    Antoine Badel - Analyst

  • And when you say 85, is that a realistic upside scenario for Q4 or is it just theoretical?

    當您說 85 時,這是第四季度的現實上行情景還是僅僅是理論上的?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • No. I just meant mathematical numbers if you -- we -- our guidance is 65 and upside. And we have no idea of the [upside non booked].

    不,我只是說數學數字,如果你——我們——我們的指導是 65 及以上。 而我們對[未預訂的上行空間]一無所知。

  • Antoine Badel - Analyst

    Antoine Badel - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Operator, I think we have one more question.

    接線員,我想我們還有一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Jan Willem Berghuis, Kempen & Co. Go ahead please.

    謝謝。 Jan Willem Berghuis,Kempen & Co. 請繼續。

  • Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

    Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

  • Yes. I'll make it a short one. Maybe you can comment a little bit on where you will spend the additional R&D or, in general, where you're spending R&D, whether it's the lithography market, are you thinking of some additional areas which you are investing in at the moment? I hope it's not too confidential.

    是的。 我會把它寫得簡短一點。 也許您可以稍微評論一下您將在哪些方面投入額外的研發資金,或者總的來說,您在哪裡投入研發資金,無論是光刻市場,您是否考慮過目前正在投資的一些其他領域? 我希望它不是太機密。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • To be sure, everything we're talking about in this EUR105m is IC.

    可以肯定的是,我們在這 1.05 億歐元中談論的一切都是 IC。

  • Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

    Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

  • Okay. And is there a big portion going into EUV?

    好的。 其中有很大一部分是用於 EUV 的嗎?

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Not yet.

    還沒有。

  • Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

    Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

  • Not yet, okay.

    還沒有,好的。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • There is a portion. But it's not -- at that moment we're spending much more time on other things.

    有一部分。 但事實並非如此——那時我們花了更多的時間在其他事情上。

  • Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

    Jan Willem Berghuis - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。 謝謝。

  • Craig DeYoung - VP IR

    Craig DeYoung - VP IR

  • Thanks, operator. I think that that concludes our third quarter results conference call and I'd like to thank everybody for attending.

    謝謝,接線生。 我想我們的第三季業績電話會議到此結束,感謝大家的參加。

  • Eric Meurice - President and CEO

    Eric Meurice - President and CEO

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2006 third quarter conference call. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect now. Good bye.

    女士們、先生們,ASML 2006 年第三季電話會議到此結束。 感謝您的參與。 您現在可以斷開連線。 再見。