艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2006 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen thank you for standing by and welcome to the ASML 2006 fourth quarter and annual results conference call on January 17, 2007. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Go ahead please sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加 2007 年 1 月 17 日 ASML 2006 年第四季和年度業績電話會議。 [操作員指示]。現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and good morning ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Head of Investor Relations at ASML, and I'd like to welcome you to our investor call and webcast. The subject of today's call is, of course, ASML's 2006 fourth quarter and annual results conference. Hosting this call today I have Mr. Eric Meurice, ASML's CEO, and he is joined by our CFO, Peter Wennink.

謝謝您，接線生。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資者關係主管 Craig DeYoung，歡迎您參加我們的投資者電話會議和網路廣播。今天電話會議的主題當然是ASML的2006年第四季和年度業績發表會。今天主持這次電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Eric Meurice 先生，還有我們的財務長 Peter Wennink。

I'd like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbour statement contained in both our press release and presentation, and we will be applying that Safe Harbour to today's call. You can find the press release and the accompanying presentation on our website at www.asml.com. The length of the call will be 60 minutes. And at this point I'd like to turn it over to Eric.

我想提請您注意我們的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，我們將在今天的電話會議上應用該安全港聲明。您可以在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到新聞稿和隨附的簡報。通話時間為 60 分鐘。現在我想把時間交給 Eric。

Thank you very much Craig. Good afternoon and good morning. Thank you for attending our conference call. We will be dividing the introduction to this call in two parts. This time Peter will start with a review of our 2006 performance, with added comment on our outlook for 2007.

非常感謝 Craig。下午好，早安。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。我們將這次通話的介紹分為兩部分。這次，彼得將首先回顧我們 2006 年的表現，並對 2007 年的展望進行補充評論。

I will then try to beat Peter's positive picture with my introduction on long-term growth trajectory. Following the introduction we will open up for questions. So, Peter.

然後，我將嘗試透過對長期成長軌蹟的介紹來超越彼得的正面形象。介紹完畢後，我們將開始提問。所以，彼得。

Thanks. Thank you Eric. Welcome to everyone on the phone. First of all I would like to review our Q4 results highlights, and in that regard I'm real happy to report that, of course, our 2006 results are the best ever.

謝謝。謝謝你，埃里克。歡迎大家來電。首先，我想回顧一下我們第四季的業績亮點，在這方面，我很高興地報告，當然，我們 2006 年的業績是有史以來最好的。

In reviewing our results in detail you've seen that we reported records for revenues, operating margins and for the net profit. Q4 revenues showed a record of over EUR1b, and contributed significantly to the 42% growth for the total year.

在詳細審查我們的結果時，您會發現我們報告了收入、營業利潤率和淨利潤的記錄。第四季營收創下超過 10 億歐元的記錄，為全年 42% 的成長做出了重大貢獻。

Our operating cost only grew 13%, which was completely driven by increased R&D spending. And this has resulted in an operating margin on the year of 24.2%, which is an increase of 6.4 percentage points over 2005, and that all has resulted in a net income of 17.4%. Those are very good numbers, and we believe that next to the favorable industry conditions of last year, our 2006 results were significantly influenced by the following three drivers.

我們的營運成本僅成長了 13%，這完全是由研發支出的增加所推動的。這使得當年的營業利潤率達到 24.2%，比 2005 年增加了 6.4 個百分點，而淨收入則達到了 17.4%。這些都是非常好的數字，我們相信，除了去年有利的行業條件之外，我們 2006 年的業績還受到以下三個驅動因素的顯著影響。

Now first, there is our continued market share growth. This is the clear result of our relentless R&D spending, focusing on time to market of new technology, and on increasing our product value of ownership.

首先，我們的市佔率持續成長。這是我們堅持不懈地投入研發、注重新技術的上市時間以及提高產品所有權價值的明顯成果。

Secondly, we've been focusing on cost reductions and cost containment for several years now. And I believe the result is clearly showing in the improved gross margin, and in the level of selling general and administrative costs that keep decreasing as a percentage of our sales, and it's currently running lower than 6%.

其次，幾年來我們一直致力於降低成本和控製成本。我相信，結果明顯體現在毛利率的提高以及銷售一般和管理費用佔銷售額的百分比不斷下降，目前低於 6%。

Now, I would add to that lastly, that return on invested capital has been our major performance yardstick. And our cash cycle days on inventories have improved from 188 days at the end of 2005, to 111 at the end of last year.

最後，我想補充一點，投資資本報酬率一直是我們主要的績效標準。我們的庫存現金週期天數已從 2005 年底的 188 天縮短至去年年底的 111 天。

If you combine that with our improved profitability, we believe that the Company is currently comparing very favorably on this metric against many of our industry peers.

如果將此與我們提高的盈利能力結合起來，我們相信公司目前在這一指標上與許多業內同行相比非常有利。

2006 was also the year in which we started our first ever share buyback program. We succeeded in buying back 8.3% of our outstanding share capital. And since we feel confident in our ability to keep generating a solid profitability and accompanying cash flows, we will use this instrument of the buybacks, also going forward, to return money to our shareholders.

2006 年也是我們啟動首支股票回購計畫的一年。我們成功回購了8.3%的流通股本。而且，由於我們對持續創造穩健獲利能力和隨之而來的現金流的能力充滿信心，我們將利用回購這項工具，在未來向股東返還資金。

Which brings me to the outlook for 2007. Industry analysts predict IC unit growth for the semiconductor industry at approximately 10% in 2007, as well as up to 5% growth for lithography equipment sales. Our own analysis shows also potential for growth in [nautical] segments of our market.

這讓我對 2007 年有了展望。產業分析師預測，2007年半導體產業的IC銷量將成長約10％，而光刻設備銷售額的成長率將達到5％。我們自己的分析也表明，我們市場的[航海]領域具有成長潛力。

And the implementation of immersion into the production by major Flash makers in 2007 will also fuel our growth, in both market shares and in top line revenues. All this on top of a record backlog valued of over EUR2.1b that leads us to conclude that 2007 will be a growth year for ASML.

2007年主要Flash製造商將沉浸式技術應用到生產中，這也將推動我們的市場份額和營業收入的成長。所有這些，加上創紀錄的價值超過 21 億歐元的積壓訂單，使我們得出結論，2007 年將是 ASML 的成長年。

With regards to bookings, our track record over the last three quarters has proven some difficulty in providing accurate bookings guidance. For Q1 of 2007 there is a certain level of uncertainty about the timing of orders for a few large customers, which is having a big impact on calling the quarterly bookings. Many customers are making complex technology and product transitions for Q3 and Q4 shipments, which will lead to orders entries in Q1 or in Q2.

關於預訂，我們過去三個季度的記錄證明在提供準確的預訂指導方面存在一些困難。2007年第一季度，一些大客戶的訂單時間存在一定程度的不確定性，這對季度訂單的執行產生了很大的影響。許多客戶正在為第三季和第四季的出貨進行複雜的技術和產品轉型，這將導致在第一季或第二季下訂單。

Under these circumstances we prefer not to speculate, and that is why we are not specifically guiding for Q1. I can just confirm, like we said in our press release, that our order book for Q1 will be healthy, and will be supporting our 2007 growth expectations.

在這種情況下，我們不願意進行推測，這就是為什麼我們沒有針對第一季做出具體指導。我可以確認，正如我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣，我們第一季的訂單情況良好，並將支持我們 2007 年的成長預期。

That's as far as I will go for the outlook on 2007 and, Eric, if you can take the remainder of the introduction.

這就是我對 2007 年展望的全部內容，Eric，請您繼續聽完剩下的介紹。

Thank you very much Peter. As you can see, we feel optimistic about -- with our mid-term horizon. And I would like to focus now on the ASML long-term growth trajectory, which overlaps on the short-term positive picture that Peter described.

非常感謝你，彼得。正如您所看到的，我們對中期前景感到樂觀。現在我想專注於 ASML 的長期成長軌跡，這與 Peter 描述的短期正面前景重疊。

As we've said on several occasions, we simulate regularly future lithographic market needs, based on integrated circuit unit market growth rates assumptions. If we take an assumption of about 9% IC unit growth, and this is a simulation assumption which is an average, and if we put this into our simulation model we project a total lithography market of about EUR7b by 2010, compared to approximately EUR5.5b today. This overall market growth potential sustains ASML capability to reach its EUR5b revenue target in the same timeframe.

正如我們多次所說的，我們會根據積體電路單位市場成長率假設，定期模擬未來的光刻市場需求。如果我們假設 IC 單位成長率約為 9%，這是一個模擬假設，也是一個平均值，如果我們將其放入我們的模擬模型中，我們預計到 2010 年整個光刻市場規模將達到約 70 億歐元，而目前約為 55 億歐元。這一整體市場成長潛力支持 ASML 在同一時間內實現其 50 億歐元的收入目標。

The following three factors contribute to achieving this potential growth.

以下三個因素有助於實現這一潛在成長。

First, the lithography spent by our customer per IC unit produced increases with the semiconductor technology road map. Obviously, the expected growth in IC units in itself creates a need for lithography tools. But another driver is the shrink road maps. These ever-accelerating road maps create demand for more complex tools, which have a higher ASP and a higher value content, like tighter overlay, [two fold] management for instance, and with relative lower throughputs during the first few years, thus, generating a higher litho value purchase.

首先，我們的客戶每生產一個 IC 單元所花費的光刻技術成本會隨著半導體技術路線圖的增加而增加。顯然，IC 單元的預期成長本身就產生了對光刻工具的需求。但另一個驅動因素是路線圖的縮小。這些不斷加速的發展路線圖創造了對更複雜工具的需求，這些工具具有更高的平均售價和更高的價值內容，例如更緊密的覆蓋、[雙重]管理，並且在最初幾年具有相對較低的吞吐量，從而產生了更高的光刻價值購買。

Moreover, these additional nodes require more processing layers, resulting in more litho passes, more usage of those machines. For instance, typical logic designs which requires, today, 35 to 37 layers at the 65 nanometer node will require, in the future, up to 40 layers, that is more than 10% above today's, at the 45 nanometer node. Similar increases will occur for Flash and DRAM.

此外，這些額外的節點需要更多的處理層，因此需要更多的光刻次數，也需要更多機器的使用。例如，典型的邏輯設計在當今的 65 奈米節點上需要 35 到 37 層，而在未來，在 45 奈米節點上則需要多達 40 層，比現在高出 10% 以上。Flash 和 DRAM 也會出現類似的成長。

These conditions combined are causing lithography system expenditures by our customer to increase, as a percentage of wafer fab equipment spend. Today that percentage is approaching 18%, so 18% of wafer fab equipment spend is litho tools. This number was 14% 10 years ago. The trend will continue as -- to grow.

這些條件結合起來導致我們的客戶的光刻系統支出佔晶圓廠設備支出的百分比增加。如今，該比例已接近 18%，因此晶圓廠設備支出的 18% 用於光刻工具。10年前這個數字是14%。這一趨勢將會持續成長。

Secondly, we expect to continue to gain market share. ASML's revenue market share stands at approximately 61% at the end of 2006, due to significant new customer wins in multiple product segments and multiple geographies. This represents an approximate increase of about 4 percentage points over 2005. As mentioned by Peter, we believe that we will continue in growing market share.

其次，我們期望繼續獲得市場份額。由於在多個產品領域和多個地區贏得了大量新客戶，ASML 的收入市佔率在 2006 年底達到約 61%。這比 2005 年增加了約 4 個百分點。正如彼得所說，我們相信我們的市場份額將繼續增長。

Indeed, the semiconductor industry has recognized ASML's compelling value of ownership advantages through the TWINSCAN architecture. With over 500 TWINSCAN's installed worldwide at the end of 2006, we expect that our accumulative experience, the cost of architecture switching at our customer and our high and growing level of R&D investment will keep us in the lead.

事實上，半導體產業已經認識到 ASML 透過 TWINSCAN 架構所具有的引人注目的所有權優勢價值。截至 2006 年底，全球已安裝了 500 多台 TWINSCAN，我們期望，我們累積的經驗、客戶的架構轉換成本以及我們不斷增長的高水準研發投資將使我們保持領先地位。

We are particularly confident in the all important immersion segment, where ASML is enabling customer development of future processes beyond 55 nanometer nodes in a variety of applications.

我們對至關重要的浸沒式領域尤其有信心，ASML 正在幫助客戶在各種應用中開發超越 55 奈米節點的未來製程。

With over 76 ASML immersion systems in the market today, including 23 of the XT:1700i shipped to 17 customers, and with more than 300,000 wafers purchased already on these immersion tools in the market, we are in a clear leadership position worldwide.

目前市場上有超過 76 套 ASML 浸沒式系統，其中包括已向 17 個客戶交付的 23 套 XT:1700i，市場上已有超過 300,000 片晶圓透過這些浸沒式工具購買，我們在全球處於明顯的領導地位。

Mid-2007 we will start shipping our XT:1900i system, and evolutionary improvement of the XT:1700i of today. That will -- this new tool will allow [imaging] below 40 nanometer node.

2007 年中期，我們將開始發售 XT:1900i 系統，以及當今 XT:1700i 的革命性改進。這個新工具將允許對 40 奈米節點以下進行成像。

For the technology afterwards, double patterning technology for instance, ASML we recently launch the XT:1450, a high throughput improved overlay dry system for production application at some 60 nanometer node, and double patterning development activities at the 32 nanometer node.

對於後續技術，例如雙重圖案化技術，ASML 我們最近推出了 XT:1450，這是一種高吞吐量改進的覆蓋乾燥系統，適用於約 60 奈米節點的生產應用，以及 32 奈米節點的雙重圖案化開發活動。

In the field of EUV, which comes next, the expected lithographic technology for volume production beyond 2010, covering probably up to 10 nanometer node, ASML has shipped, in 2006, two pilot EUV systems to IMEC, and to [Albany] Nanotech for early process development work, and industry infrastructure development. We have already received orders for three -- from three IC manufacturers for pre-production EUV systems, with first shipment in -- starting in 2009.

在緊接著的 EUV 領域，預計 EUV 是用於 2010 年以後量產的微影技術，可能涵蓋 10 奈米節點。 2006 年，ASML 已經向 IMEC 和 [Albany] Nanotech 運送了兩套試驗性 EUV 系統，用於早期製程開發工作和產業基礎設施開發。我們已經從三家 IC 製造商收到了三套 EUV 預生產系統的訂單，第一批將於 2009 年開始出貨。

The third factor which contributes to growth, mid-term growth, is our increased strategic scope. As you know, ASML announced plans last month to acquire Brion pending regulatory approval. We see numerous opportunities where combining ASML and Brion will reinforce both companies' growth and value potential in advanced semiconductor lithography.

促進成長的第三個因素，即中期成長，是我們擴大的策略範圍。如您所知，ASML 上個月宣布了收購 Brion 的計劃，等待監管部門的批准。我們看到了許多機會，ASML 和 Brion 的合併將增強兩家公司在先進半導體微影領域的成長和價值潛力。

Brion is the largest and fastest growing pure play company in computational lithography. This encompasses IC design verification, critical enhancement technology, otherwise called CET, and optical proximity correction, otherwise called OPC. These markets are small today, but will grow exponentially as critical designs become more and more complex to execute down a more [slow] curve.

Brion 是計算光刻領域規模最大、發展最快的專業公司。這包括 IC 設計驗證、關鍵增強技術（也稱為 CET）和光學鄰近校正（也稱為 OPC）。這些市場目前規模較小，但隨著關鍵設計變得越來越複雜，執行速度越來越慢，它們將呈指數級增長。

Further, customer require increasing advanced litho tools with capability to optimize the scanner settings for a specific application. The customer benefit is an ability to maximize yield. It will also help ASML to create competitive differentiation in both businesses; its current business, the litho tools, and the new business from Brion, the RET/OPC tools.

此外，客戶需要增加先進的光刻工具，以便針對特定應用最佳化掃描器設定。客戶的利益在於能夠最大化收益。這也將有助於 ASML 在兩項業務中創造競爭差異化；其現有業務是光刻工具，而 Brion 的新業務是 RET/OPC 工具。

So, in summary, the message is as follows. We will continue our focus on execution as we've done now for the past years, to secure market leadership, while delivering high return on invested capital.

因此，總而言之，資訊如下。我們將繼續像過去幾年一樣注重執行，以確保市場領導地位，同時實現高投資報酬率。

Two, we are optimistic about 2007 in view of market growth in general, and our own market share growth outlook.

二，從整體市場成長以及我們自身市佔率成長前景來看，我們對2007年持樂觀態度。

And three, this mid-term, short-term/mid-term outlook, is strengthened by our overall long-term growth trajectory, which is strengthened by our offer of the most advanced technology in line with our customer road maps, and by our expanding of our scope in the market with new opportunities.

第三，我們的中期、短期/中期展望因我們的整體長期成長軌跡而得到加強，而我們根據客戶路線圖提供最先進的技術，以及我們透過新機會擴大市場範圍，又進一步加強了我們的長期成長軌跡。

Now, I think, Peter and I will take your questions.

現在，我想，彼得和我將回答你們的問題。

Before we do the questions let me just remind you, ladies and gentlemen, that when asking the questions please clearly identify yourself and your organization. We also kindly ask that you limit yourself to one question with one short follow up, if necessary. That will allow the maximum number of callers to get a question asked.

女士們、先生們，在我們提問之前，請允許我提醒大家，提問時請清楚地表明您的身份和您所在組織的身份。我們也懇請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，如有必要，請進行一次簡短的跟進。這將允許最大數量的呼叫者提出問題。

So, operator, I think we are ready then for the first question.

那麼，接線員，我想我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

Thank you sir. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]. The first question is from Mr. Antoine Badel. Go ahead please sir. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝您，先生。 [操作員指示]。第一個問題來自安托萬·巴德爾先生。先生，請繼續。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon, Credit Suisse. On the operational expense front you've given us some guidance for Q1 that shows an acceleration of SG&A and R&D spending. Could you maybe give us a little bit more guidance in terms of structural spending levels for the rest of the year?

是的，下午好，瑞士信貸。在營運費用方面，您為我們提供了一些第一季的指導，顯示銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和研發支出正在加速成長。您能否就今年剩餘時間的結構性支出水準給予我們更多指導？

Yes, for the R&D spend for 2007 we have guided Q1, indeed, up. For the total year the R&D spend could be up, as compared to the spending of Q4, between 10 and 15%. On SG&A we don't expect a major increase as compared to the guides we've given you on Q1.

是的，對於 2007 年第一季的研發支出，我們確實進行了上調。與第四季相比，全年研發支出可能增加 10% 至 15%。與第一季給予的指引相比，我們預期銷售、一般及行政費用不會大幅成長。

Thank you. And as a follow up, you've reported your sixth straight quarter of sequential backlog increase, which is one more than the last cycle in '03/'04. Should we expect Q1 to see the first downtick in the backlog? Or is there any chance that it can continue growing?

謝謝。另外，您還報告稱，連續第六個季度的積壓訂單量有所增加，比 2003/2004 年的上一個週期增加了一個。我們是否應該預期第一季積壓訂單量將首次下降？或者說它還有繼續成長的可能嗎？

When we look at the backlog and the order situation of Q1, I think we were specifically clear in what we said in the introduction. That, we are focusing in 2007 specifically on growth driven by our estimates on what we think the industry will do. Our market share gains, the introduction of immersion, and specifically the 1900 in the second half of the year, that will lead to growth for 2007.

當我們查看第一季的積壓和訂單情況時，我認為我們在介紹中說得非常清楚。2007 年，我們將特別關注由我們對產業發展的預測所推動的成長。我們的市佔率不斷增加，沉浸式體驗的推出，特別是下半年推出的 1900，都將為 2007 年帶來成長。

And it is particularly difficult, like I said in the intro, to exactly find when those few big customers will place their orders, whether it's in Q1 or in Q2 for their Q3 and Q4 ramps. So, I don't really -- I would not know that, so I think the answer that I gave should basically cover this.

正如我在介紹中所說的那樣，要準確找到這幾個大客戶何時下訂單尤其困難，無論是在第一季還是在第二季為第三季和第四季下訂單。所以，我真的不知道——我不知道這一點，所以我認為我給出的答案基本上應該涵蓋了這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Thomas Brenier. Please state your company name followed by your question sir.

下一個問題來自托馬斯·布雷尼爾先生。先生，請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon, it's Societe Generale. Maybe just a follow up on the question of [Nicolas]. I just wanted to see how different is your environment compared to where it was in October. Have you seen any changes?

是的，下午好，我是法國興業銀行。也許只是對[Nicolas]問題的後續回答。我只是想看看你的環境與十月相比有何不同。您看到任何變化了嗎？

I understand really why you don't want to give guidance for bookings in Q1. So, I was just wondering if there is any change in the visibility compared to what you are seeing -- what you saw in Q3 and Q4? And if you could give us the details between what is going on in Memory, IDM's and Foundries it would be helpful. Thank you.

我確實理解您為什麼不想為第一季的預訂提供指導。所以，我只是想知道與您在第三季和第四季看到的相比，可見度是否有任何變化？如果您能向我們提供內存、IDM 和代工廠之間的詳細信息，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yes, Thomas, thank you. Fundamentally, no big changes. We guided last quarter that we were confident about the possibility of growth in 2007. Here we are confirming that growth. The body language is a bit more positive, more optimistic because of the realization of orders coming from the DRAM segment.

是的，托馬斯，謝謝你。從根本上來說，沒有什麼大的改變。我們上個季度的預測是，我們對 2007 年的成長可能性充滿信心。我們在此確認了這一增長。由於 DRAM 部門的訂單實現，肢體語言更加積極、更加樂觀。

At this moment we see a Flash business which is front-loaded. We said that three months ago. There is no change. We see DRAM business strong and stable in Q1, Q2, Q3. We see a strong and sustained business of Foundry at the end of Q1 and then Q2, Q3 and potentially Q4. We see a pretty spread IDM business for -- along the whole year.

目前我們看到的是前端載入的 Flash 業務。我們三個月前就這麼說過。沒有變化。我們看到 DRAM 業務在第一季、第二季和第三季表現強勁且穩定。我們看到，第一季末、第二季、第三季以及第四季度，Foundry 的業務將保持強勁且持續的發展。我們看到 IDM 業務在全年都呈現相當擴張的勢頭。

And for ASML we obviously see a development in the R&D [built-up] sector, where customers of any segment built their new recipes for the 45 nanometer node and beyond, using the latest technology [of] immersion. In other terms, second half of the year, they will need the new tool that ASML will introduce, which is called the XT:1900. And we are obviously bullish that this will create significant sales, significant revenue in the second half of the year.

對於 ASML，我們顯然看到了其研發領域的發展，各個領域的客戶都使用最新的浸入式技術為 45 奈米節點及更高節點建立了新的配方。換句話說，今年下半年，他們將需要 ASML 推出的新工具，稱為 XT:1900。我們顯然看好這將在今年下半年創造可觀的銷售額和收入。

Okay, I have some factuals to that. If you look at the backlog at the end of the year, 64% is Memory, 15% -- so 15% is points of the 64% is really only Flash. So the remainder is DRAM, and what we call the hybrid fabs. So that actually shows that we have seen strong DRAM bookings. And if we run those DRAM bookings and the anticipated shipments for next year in our models, we cannot see that we are going to create a big over-capacity in the DRAM space. So, that is one of the drivers, if you will, say changes. We will have some more factual information on the backlog.

好的，我有一些事實依據。如果你看年底的積壓情況，64%是內存，15%——所以15%是64%中的點實際上只是閃存。剩下的就是 DRAM，也就是我們所說的混合晶圓廠。這實際上表明我們已經看到了強勁的 DRAM 預訂量。如果我們在模型中運行這些 DRAM 預訂量和明年的預期出貨量，我們就不會看到 DRAM 領域出現嚴重的產能過剩。所以，如果你願意的話，這就是驅動因素之一，可以說是改變。我們將獲得有關積壓問題的更多事實資訊。

And, sorry, as a follow up to this, for the DRAM space are you seeing the same kind of pattern you've seen in the past few quarters on [MEM] that corresponds -- the orders correspond mostly to new fabs? Or are you seeing also some upgrades to existing fabs?

抱歉，作為對此的後續提問，對於 DRAM 領域，您是否看到了與過去幾個季度在 [MEM] 上看到的相同的模式 - 訂單主要對應於新晶圓廠？或者您也看到現有晶圓廠的一些升級？

Both. Probably fairly balanced that's the way we see it.

兩個都。我們認為這很可能是相當平衡的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Nicolas Gaudois. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自 Nicolas Gaudois 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, hi there, Nicolas Gaudois at Deutsche Bank. First question is effectively on how you would look at the timing of the introduction of your new tool in dry v the XT:1450? Whereby, you are expecting to release this tool by the middle of this year, and in the second half of '07 we will see the microprocessor segment starting to use the double patterning dry for critical layers. So, just wondering if the timing is basically not an accident, and we should see a strong acceptance of this tool for your microprocessor customers?

是的，您好，我是德意志銀行的 Nicolas Gaudois。第一個問題是，您如何看待在 Dry V XT:1450 中推出新工具的時機？因此，您預計在今年年中發布此工具，而在 2007 年下半年，我們將看到微處理器領域開始在關鍵層中使用雙重圖案乾燥技術。所以，我只是想知道時機是否基本上不是偶然的，我們應該看到這個工具得到您的微處理器客戶的強烈接受？

Because there are only two microprocessor customers in the market, Nicolas, you will understand why I am cautious in my responses. The double patterning activity at this moment, as we see, is probably more in the R&D lab and it is a bit difficult for us to call production. As much as we are very, very gutsy in calling the immersion ramps, because we have now certain numbers of official ramps, in fact, that have started already last year and are progressing this year. The double patterning at this very moment is a bit more difficult for us to call in terms of production ramp.

因為市場上只有兩個微處理器客戶，尼可拉斯，你會明白為什麼我的回答如此謹慎。正如我們所見，此刻的雙重曝光活動可能更多是在研發實驗室中進行的，對於我們來說，稱之為生產有點困難。我們非常大膽地稱之為沉浸式坡道，因為事實上，我們現在有一定數量的官方坡道，這些坡道去年就已開始，今年正在取得進展。就目前的產量提升而言，雙重模式對我們來說有點困難。

The 1450, by the way, has two functions. One is double patterning. It's the only tool that allows this in view of its overlay capability. But it's also a fairly good tool in production of single patterning. So you -- the second reason for us to be a but confused is to the usage of it.

順便說一下，1450 有兩個功能。一是雙重圖案。鑑於其覆蓋功能，它是唯一允許這樣做的工具。但它也是單一圖案生產中相當不錯的工具。所以你——我們感到困惑的第二個原因是它的用法。

Okay, fair enough. And just as a follow up, effectively, if I look at your combined logic and foundry backlog in value at the end of December, it seems to be about 10% below where we were in Q4 '04 so at the peak of a prior cycle. Yet, you gained market share at [TSMC] in Japan, [Intel] amongst others. Would it be fair to say that although we are close [inaudible], or maybe over spending a bit on Memory, on your side there may be some under-spending on the bookings effectively on the logic and foundry side going into '07?

好吧，夠公平。作為後續問題，實際上，如果我看一下 12 月底的邏輯和代工積壓訂單總額，它似乎比 2004 年第四季（即上一個週期的峰值）低了約 10%。然而，你們在日本的[台積電]、[英特爾]等公司都獲得了市場份額。可以公平地說，儘管我們接近[聽不清]，或者可能在內存方面支出過多，但從您的角度來看，在進入2007年時，在邏輯和代工方面，預訂方面的支出可能有些不足？

Well yes, I think you are mentioning not so much value statements. You are talking about percentage of the backlog. So, it is true that we are seeing a temporary increase of the Memory percentage in the total business of, I would guess, every equipment manufacturer. Memory is a bigger segment at this very moment. It has two factual reasons for that.

嗯，是的，我認為您提到的價值陳述並不多。您談論的是積壓的百分比。因此，我猜我們確實看到內存在每家設備製造商整體業務中的佔比暫時增加。目前，記憶體是一個較大的部分。有兩個事實原因。

One is there is a renewal of DRAM needs due to [Vista]. At least probably 80% of the needs is due to Vista, although, we also see some DRAM needs in the consumer arena. So, clearly, you've got a nice upside in DRAM which has happened. And then we talked about the Flash business, which is building up to some level of capacity before it matures, I would say.

一是[Vista]引發了DRAM需求的復甦。儘管我們也看到消費領域對 DRAM 有一些需求，但至少 80% 的需求可能源自於 Vista。因此，顯然，DRAM 已經獲得了良好的上漲空間。然後我們談到了 Flash 業務，我想說，它在成熟之前正在累積一定程度的容量。

So, these are the two short-term reasons why the Memory business represents 60 to 65% of our backlog. We expect, in the mid-term/long-term, to be back to 50%.

因此，這是記憶體業務占我們積壓訂單的 60% 到 65% 的兩個短期原因。我們預計，從中期/長期來看，這一比例將回升至 50%。

But my question was basically on the value of the backlog. If you look at the value of logic and foundry again combined. If you look back at your numbers in Q4, it was actually 10% higher to where we are at the end of Q4 '06, and that seems a bit contra-intuitive, if you look at continuing spending trends in the non-memory sector, but also your own market share gains. So, trying to [gauge] effectively there is underpinning that some under-spending in lithography in the non-memory segments at this point in time?

但我的問題基本上是關於積壓的價值。如果你再結合邏輯和代工的價值來看。如果回顧第四季度的數據，你會發現它實際上比 2006 年第四季末的數據高出了 10%，如果你看非記憶體領域的持續支出趨勢，以及你自己的市場份額的成長，這似乎有點違反直覺。那麼，試圖有效衡量目前非記憶體領域光刻技術支出不足的情況是否存在？

Honestly, I would have to be reviewing the statistics of last year to be very, very precise with you. But, clearly, today the Foundry business is adjusting their capacity and their inventory levels, being weaker in backlog. But the activity, the bookings activity, allows me to say to you that we expect good business of Foundry end of Q1, Q2, Q3 and potentially Q4. So, yes, there is probably a timing issue there which explains the difference compared to last year.

老實說，我必須回顧去年的統計數據才能非常準確地告訴你。但顯然，如今代工業務正在調整其產能和庫存水平，積壓訂單較少。但是，透過預訂活動，我可以告訴您，我們預計 Foundry 在第一季、第二季、第三季以及第四季末的業務將會很好。所以，是的，可能存在時間問題，這解釋了與去年相比的差異。

We also, clearly in Foundry, have one of those segments that requires UNIX products with the low -- the shortest lead time, which means the Foundry indications is not so much a backlog question, it's really a billings question. If I remember by memory, in last year, I think 66% of our business of Q1 was [turns] within the quarter, and a lot of this was Foundry. So, in other terms the backlog is a fairly bad indication of the Foundry real need because they will come on a very short-term basis.

顯然，在 Foundry 中，我們擁有一個需要最短交付週期的 UNIX 產品的細分市場，這意味著 Foundry 的跡象並不完全是一個積壓問題，而是一個帳單問題。如果我沒記錯的話，去年第一季我們 66% 的業務是在季度內完成的，其中很大一部分來自 Foundry。因此，換句話說，積壓訂單不能很好地反映出 Foundry 的真正需求，因為它們會在很短的時間內出現。

Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

好的，明白了。非常感謝。

Your next question is from Mr. Jay Deahna. Please state your company name followed by your question.

您的下一個問題來自 Jay Deahna 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, good morning, good afternoon. This is Jay Deahna from JPMorgan. My first question is do you expect to take in orders for more immersion systems in 1Q than you did in 4Q? I noticed your ASP's of orders were a little lighter than I would have expected. It would suggest that i-Line and KrF were a higher percentage of the mix. So, will you book more immersion in 1Q versus 4Q?

大家好，早安，下午好。我是摩根大通的 Jay Deahna。我的第一個問題是，您是否預期第一季接收的沉浸式系統訂單會比第四季多？我注意到您的訂單平均售價比我預期的要低一些。這表明 i-Line 和 KrF 佔混合物的比例更高。那麼，與第四季度相比，您會在第一季預訂更多的沉浸式體驗嗎？

And then the second question is gross margins, where do you expect gross margins to trend throughout the year? But, more importantly, over the next several years, as you get beyond the upfront investment in Japan and start ramping, can we see gross margins in the 43, 44% range two or three years out, something like that? Thank you.

第二個問題是毛利率，您預期全年毛利率趨勢如何？但更重要的是，在接下來的幾年裡，隨著你們完成在日本的前期投資並開始擴大規模，我們是否可以看到兩三年後毛利率達到 43% 到 44% 左右？謝謝。

Jay, two strategic questions. Immersion, we cannot answer that. This is one of the reasons why we didn't want to guide [there in precision] Q1. The lumpiness of those decisions and exact timing, and the choice between the 1700 and the 1900, are reason that says it's a bit difficult to call.

傑伊，兩個戰略性問題。沉浸感，我們無法回答這個問題。這就是我們不想在精準度上指導 Q1 的原因之一。這些決定和確切時間的不穩定性，以及 1700 和 1900 之間的選擇，都是說這有點難以預測的原因。

Obviously, our daily life is as follows. We've got a customer who needs an immersion machine, and they will want to wait until the last moment before they take the decision between the 1700 and the 1900. So, this is why we cannot say what exactly is the immersion number, bookings number in Q1. We are certainly optimistic to have a significant run rate of those however.

顯然，我們的日常生活如下。我們有一位客戶需要一台浸入式機器，他們想等到最後一刻才在 1700 和 1900 之間做出決定。所以，這就是為什麼我們無法說出第一季的沉浸式數量和預訂數量到底是多少。然而，我們當然對這些產品的顯著運作率持樂觀態度。

Regarding gross margin, I confirm with you that the maturity, the maturation of our lithography business, in terms of market share, as well as the expansion of our scope towards value-added, I would call it, software and service, value added around the litho machine, calls for an increased gross margin towards the level that you just talked about.

關於毛利率，我向您確認，我們的光刻業務在市場份額方面的成熟度，以及我們向增值業務範圍的擴展，我稱之為軟體和服務，圍繞光刻機的增值，要求將毛利率提高到您剛才談到的水平。

Okay great, thank you very much.

好的，太好了，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Titus Menzies, Jefferies and Company. Go ahead please sir.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies and Company 的 Titus Menzies 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning gentlemen, Eric and Peter, this is Titus from Jefferies. A quick question on the orders which you have for the first quarter. How much of that is back to the fact that your capacity maxed out [at the moment] and you are trying to work through an expansion efficiency to turn more equipment through the quarter?

早安，先生們，艾瑞克和彼得，我是傑富瑞的泰特斯。關於第一季的訂單，我問一個簡單的問題。這在多大程度上是因為你們的產能（目前）已經達到極限，而你們正試圖透過擴張效率來在本季交付更多設備？

And how much -- if we into look the quarter, how much do we maybe try and gauge in [turns] business for the quarter as well?

如果我們看一下這個季度，我們可能會嘗試對這個季度的業務進行多少評估？

Good question. We are getting out of capacity limitations. Obviously, in our business there is always capacity limitations depending on which product you are talking about in view of the lead time and things. But at this moment I am happy to confirm that our capacity is above the EUR1b. You know we have done more than EUR1.06b in Q4 and we have proven that we can go above. And we are moving our capacity up and up and up every quarter.

好問題。我們正在擺脫容量限制。顯然，在我們的業務中，考慮到交貨時間和其他因素，根據您所談論的產品，總是存在產能限制。但此刻我很高興地確認我們的容量已超過10億歐元。您知道我們在第四季度的營收已超過 10.6 億歐元，並且我們已經證明我們可以超越這一目標。而且我們每季的產能都在不斷提升。

So, we're getting out of that. And that means we are available for turns. Yes, there is opportunity for turns. And I did mention that we do expect some pressure by Foundry. But I don't think it is a wide request at this moment. So we are not planning for significant upside of billings in Q1.

所以，我們要擺脫這種困境。這意味著我們可以輪流。是的，有轉變的機會。我確實提到過，我們確實預計 Foundry 會給我們帶來一些壓力。但我認為目前這並不是一個廣泛的要求。因此，我們不打算在第一季實現營業額的大幅上漲。

Thanks, Eric. Just one more follow-up question. [In terms] -- with lead times stretching, is that a factor which has gauged the product mix to shift down to KrF and i-Line as customers are unable to get hold of the more advanced tools in the timeframe which they are hoping for?

謝謝，埃里克。還有一個後續問題。 [就方面而言]—隨著交貨時間的延長，這是否是決定產品組合轉向 KrF 和 i-Line 的因素，因為客戶無法在他們希望的時間內獲得更先進的工具？

No. The lead time is stretching due to our little past capacity limitations has resulted in me taking a whole bunch of 'kick in the butt', technically speaking. But we've been able to manage most of the customers' enthusiasm without losing business.

不。從技術上講，由於我們過去的產能限制，交貨時間不斷延長，導致我遭受了巨大的損失。但我們能夠在不損失業務的情況下管理大多數客戶的熱情。

As you know, this is an area where the switching costs are so important that you don't just change because you don't have it. So we've been able to manage effectively that lead time stretching. And now obviously time is, of course, reducing and allowing, in fact, as I just said today, customers in particular in the foundry sector, to be very short in their booking.

如你所知，在這個領域中轉換成本非常重要，你不會因為沒有它就改變。因此，我們能夠有效地管理交貨時間的延長。現在顯然時間在減少，事實上，正如我今天剛才所說的，特別是鑄造行業的客戶，他們的預訂時間非常短。

Yes, if I could add something to that. As you might have seen in the presentation, we have indicated that two thirds of the backlog at the end of the year is shippable over the next six months. That one third that is shippable in Q3 really relates to the new technology with long lead times, so that is a lead time stretched, you could say that. And it has to do with new fabs which are going to be starting up in Q3 which basically want to secure their first lines.

是的，如果我可以補充一些內容的話。正如您可能在演示中看到的，我們已經指出，今年年底積壓的訂單中有三分之二可以在未來六個月內發貨。第三季可出貨的三分之一確實與交貨時間較長的新技術有關，因此你可以說，交貨時間被拉長了。這與將於第三季啟動的新晶圓廠有關，這些新晶圓廠基本上希望確保其首批生產線的安全。

So I don't think, just like Eric said, that we really see a lead time stretch that the fact that we have now a percentage more bought for Q3, that's outside the six months window, has really go to do with the new technology and the new fab projects which are specifically DRAM customers.

因此，我認為，就像 Eric 所說的那樣，我們實際上並沒有看到交貨時間的延長，事實上，我們現在為第三季度增加了一定比例的採購量，這超出了六個月的時間範圍，這實際上與新技術和專門針對 DRAM 客戶的新晶圓廠項目有關。

Thanks, Peter. Just to understand correctly, that means the current environment suggests that we're looking at capacity purchases coming through rather than just technology purchases coming through?

謝謝，彼得。為了正確理解，這意味著當前的環境表明我們正在關注產能購買，而不僅僅是技術購買？

No, we are going to have both. As we said, or I responded to Jay, there is some discussions at the customer level about which is the optimum mix of machine for the ramp of immersion and 45 nano, etc. And this usually is something that they even -- they optimize until the last moment. Do they take some many of this machine, so many of that, so many ERF, so many KrF, etc? So you've got all that playing with us, saying hey guys you need to take decisions soon and fast because you are going to lose your slots. And that's what's happening at this moment and that's for H2.

不，我們兩種都要。正如我們所說，或者我回答傑伊，在客戶層面有一些討論，關於哪種機器最適合浸入式和 45 奈米等的坡道組合。這通常是他們直到最後一刻才優化的事情。他們是否拿走了許多這種機器、許多那種機器、許多 ERF、許多 KrF 等等？所以你們跟我們玩了這麼多，說嘿夥計們，你們需要盡快做出決定，因為你們將失去你們的位置。這就是此刻正在發生的事情，這就是 H2。

Thank you gentlemen, and congratulations on the fourth quarter.

謝謝各位，恭喜第四季。

Titus, I think we need to move on.

泰特斯，我想我們需要繼續前進。

Can we move onto the next question please? Sorry.

我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？對不起。

The next question is from Mr. Asaolu. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自阿薩奧盧先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Good afternoon, Olubunmi Asaolu from Lehman Brothers. I'm just looking at your implied order intake by customer type again. Is it fair to assume that when your Foundry orders return meaningfully that they would come in and would be material enough to offset the expected decline in Flash orders in the second half, since your DRAM segment continued to be strong?

下午好，我是雷曼兄弟公司的 Olubunmi Asaolu。我只是再次查看您按客戶類型隱含的訂單量。由於您的 DRAM 部門持續表現強勁，是否可以假設當您的代工訂單大幅回升時，這些訂單將足以抵消下半年快閃記憶體訂單的預期下降？

Yes. We expect, in fact, a combination of good news for H2, which is a combination of Foundry, IDM and what we call technology [buys]. Technology buys goes to Foundry, IDM and also Memory. And that would offset any potential reduction of Flash demand which comes from the normal digestion.

是的。事實上，我們預計 H2 將迎來一系列好消息，包括 Foundry、IDM 和我們所說的技術 [購買] 的結合。技術收購涉及代工廠、IDM 和內存。這將抵消正常消化過程中 Flash 需求的潛在減少。

That's very clear. And then on depreciation, how should we model this on your cash flow statement now going forward with your newly raised CapEx guidance?

這非常清楚。然後關於折舊，根據您新近提出的資本支出指導，我們應該如何在您的現金流量表中對此進行建模？

Yes. Well, I think the depreciation will have -- the depreciation resulting from this additional CapEx will have a result largely in 2008. So, based upon our 2006 depreciation, you could see an increased depreciation charge of around 10%. But most of the depreciation charge will hit us in '08 because it relates to the factory which -- it's 100 to 120m, is due for completion by the end of this year.

是的。嗯，我認為，這筆額外資本支出所導致的貶值將在 2008 年產生很大影響。因此，根據我們 2006 年的折舊情況，您可能會看到折舊費用增加了約 10%。但大部分折舊費用將在 2008 年影響我們，因為它與工廠有關——該工廠佔地 1 億至 1.2 億，預計在今年年底完工。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Jonathan Dutton. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自喬納森·達頓先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes. Thanks. It's UBS. Just a couple of questions from me. You've, in your 2007 outlook, highlighted total spending of 5.5b. And with market share expanding by 40 basis points a year, potentially 65% in '07, would the right way to think about this be implied equipment revenues for you of about 3.6b?

是的。謝謝。是瑞銀。我只想問幾個問題。您在 2007 年展望中強調總支出為 55 億。隨著市佔率每年擴大 40 個基點，2007 年可能達到 65%，那麼正確的思考方式是否是隱含的設備收入約為 36 億美元？

We do not guide the year [inaudible] we are growing. And you can imagine that $1 means growth, and you can be more aggressive. So, no, it's again too early to be quantitative. But we are clearly on our trajectory [of 5b].

我們沒有引導我們正在成長的年份[聽不清楚]。你可以想像 1 美元意味著成長，你可以更積極主動。所以，現在進行量化還為時過早。但我們顯然正朝著[5b]的軌跡前進。

Just a follow up, if I may. The 30% capacity increase that you're planning, what sort of market share does that imply potentially in the near term if you do expand it to -- from 300 to 400 units?

如果可以的話，我只是想跟進一下。您計劃將產能提高 30%，如果真的將其從 300 台擴大到 400 台，那麼短期內這可能意味著什麼樣的市場份額？

Again, we use capacity and tools to satisfy customers. You can't say that capacity becomes immediately revenue. Capacity allows us to react very quickly to every customer. And when you have the ambition to be a big partner to every customer in the world and, therefore, reach market shares of the level of 65 to 70%, which is the case, you need to have a capacity level which allows every one of those key customers to come in the same quarter, which means that you have to have a capacity much above the EUR5.5b target that I'm talking about which is an average revenue level on the year.

再次，我們利用能力和工具來滿足客戶。你不能說產能立即變成收入。產能使我們能夠對每位客戶做出快速反應。當你立志成為世界上每個客戶的重要合作夥伴，並因此達到 65% 至 70% 的市場份額時，你需要擁有一定的產能水平，讓所有關鍵客戶都能在同一季度到來，這意味著你的產能必須遠高於我所說的 55 億歐元的目標，也就是全年的平均收入水平。

So that capacity level will be in place, that high capacity level which allows, therefore, to meet customers' needs any time, will be in place by the early 2008. So as of now up to 2008, we will continuously improve capacity. And by the beginning of 2008, we'll have a significant capacity which allows us to, well, to take EUR5b of orders if they were to come earlier [in 2007].

因此，到 2008 年初，產能水準將達到一定水平，即可以隨時滿足客戶需求的高產能水準。所以從現在到2008年，我們將持續提升能力。到 2008 年初，我們的產能將達到相當大的程度，如果訂單提前到位（2007 年），我們就可以承接價值 50 億歐元的訂單。

And should we assume a linear increase in capacity through the year?

我們是否應該假設全年產能呈線性成長？

Correct. Through the year, through the year 2007, as I said earlier.

正確的。就像我之前說的，這一年過去了，2007年過去了。

The factory will be completed around this time next year. So that means that full access to that capacity will only be next year.

該工廠將於明年此時左右竣工。這意味著要到明年才能完全使用這個容量。

In the current factory we are moving up and up every quarter. Because at the end, let's be very clear, this is a business for people. It's not a business for CapEx. So the difficulties we have, or if there is any difficulty, it is to move enough people with the right skills. And that's why this continues. And that's good news. We can do this in a continuous fashion.

在目前的工廠裡，我們每季都在不斷進步。因為到最後，我們要明確一點，這是一項為人服務的事業。這不是一項資本支出業務。因此，我們面臨的困難，或者如果有任何困難的話，就是如何調動足夠多的具有適當技能的人才。這就是這種情況持續下去的原因。這是個好消息。我們可以持續地做到這一點。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Simon Schafer. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自西蒙·謝弗先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Thank you. It's Simon Schafer with Goldman Sachs. Actually, a follow-up question on the capacity issue. I was wondering whether you could comment on the maximum amount of lenders you're capable of sourcing right now. I would presume that, obviously, you're working hand in hand with some of your critical component suppliers to get that aligned. But how are they ramping that? Will that be just in a linear fashion in line with your own capacity expansion?

謝謝。他是高盛的西蒙·謝弗。實際上，這是一個關於容量問題的後續問題。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您目前能夠找到的最大貸款人數。我認為，顯然您正在與一些關鍵零件供應商攜手合作以實現這一目標。但他們是如何實現這目標的呢？這是否與您自己的產能擴張呈線性一致？

Absolutely. You are absolutely correct. We are working hand in hand with [the guys]. And clearly we have at this moment, in fact, extremely similar capacity level.

絕對地。你完全正確。我們正在與這些人攜手合作。顯然，我們目前的產能水準實際上極為相似。

So should we still assume a 70 maximum capability of sourcing lend in the quarter for now, up until your expansion takes effect?

那麼，在您的擴張生效之前，我們是否仍應假設本季的最大貸款採購能力為 70？

No. First of all, even if you were trying a guess, it's mix driven. So you can't even easily summarize a capacity level. So call it, as I said to you, we have a capacity now which is much above a value of 1.1b per quarter.

不。首先，即使你嘗試猜測，它也是混合驅動的。因此，您甚至無法輕易總結出容量水準。就像我對你們說的，我們現在的產能遠高於每季 11 億的水準。

And on top of that, Eric said this with the previous answer also, that we are working in the factory to get the cycle time reductions through the factory that will, actually, with the current square footage of the factory, will create up extra capacity. So that will create extra capacity. And the same is being done in our -- basically, at our key suppliers.

除此之外，埃里克在先前的回答中也提到了這一點，我們正在工廠內開展工作，以縮短工廠的周期時間，實際上，以目前工廠的面積，這將創造額外的產能。這樣就會創造額外的產能。我們的主要供應商也基本上在做同樣的事情。

Understood. And actually a follow-up question on a previous question from earlier, just with respect to your assumption of mix of non-immersion tools this year. Are we assuming, or should we be assuming, a handful of deliveries for the 1450? And, otherwise, what should we assume for KrF versus i-Line on a full-year view. Does it just depend on how Flash -- how quickly Flash may slow down and what it gets offset with later in the year?

明白了。實際上，這是之前的一個問題的後續問題，僅關於您對今年非沉浸式工具組合的假設。我們是否假設，或是否應該假設，1450 的交付量很小？除此之外，從全年來看，我們應該如何看待 KrF 與 i-Line 的關係？這是否僅取決於 Flash 的速度——Flash 的速度會減慢多少以及今年晚些時候會用什麼來彌補？

Well, this is again an extremely tough question. You are talking about the art of our business here. We have a hit rate of planning the wrong thing, which is pretty good. So, impossible to answer. We have got potential fluctuation on every of those segments which are significant.

嗯，這又是一個非常棘手的問題。您正在談論我們這裡的商業藝術。我們計劃錯誤事情的命中率相當高。因此，無法回答。每個重要部分都存在潛在波動。

And even in the same segment, take Flash if you want, you still have some calls about how much KrF, if any. You have some customers that basically says I want only immersion and i-Line. You've got some customers who basically says I want only dry. It's -- and they are not even sure themselves at this very moment.

即使在同一細分市場中，如果您願意的話，您也可以使用 Flash，但您仍然需要了解 KrF 的數量（如果有的話）。有些客戶基本上會說我只想要沉浸式和 i-Line。有些顧客基本上會說「我只要乾的」。就連他們自己此刻也不確定。

So what's important, and this is why, in fact, your questions on capacity were very much operational, is we need to create enough bandwidth for us. And, as Peter said, enough cycle time reduction so that we can easily adapt to any profile of mix. And the good news, by the way, is most of our margins are consistent to multiple mixes. So we're not -- it's not material. The mix we will reach is not material to the profitability of the Company.

所以重要的是，這就是為什麼事實上你關於容量的問題非常具有操作性，我們需要為我們創造足夠的頻寬。而且，正如彼得所說，足夠的周期時間縮短使我們能夠輕鬆適應任何混合情況。順便說一句，好消息是，我們的大部分利潤與多種組合一致。所以我們不是——這不是物質的。我們達成的組合對於公司的獲利能力來說並不重要。

Yes. Thank you, Meurice.

是的。謝謝你，莫里斯。

The next question is from Mr. Andrew Griffin. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自安德魯·格里芬先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi guys, Andrew Griffin from Merrill Lynch. Just another question about the capacity increase and also the increase in R&D. What does this do to your breakeven levels, if any? And could you just update us on where R&D can be pulled back to if there were a downturn in the cycle?

大家好，我是美林證券的 Andrew Griffin。這只是關於產能增加和研發增加的另一個問題。如果有的話，這會對您的損益平衡水平產生什麼影響？您能否告訴我們，如果出現經濟週期下滑，可以將研發工作撤回到哪些面向？

Yes, to answer the last question, we have a 20 to 30% -- between 20 to 30% flex in research and development. Having ramped from Q1 to Q4, 23% in R&D costs for such a complex tool, that you can only do if you have a flexible and an outsourcing kind of model. And that also means that we can pull that back if we need to.

是的，回答最後一個問題，我們在研發方面有 20% 到 30% 的彈性。從第一季到第四季度，這種複雜工具的研發成本增加了 23%，只有擁有靈活的外包模式才能做到這一點。這也意味著，如果需要的話，我們可以將其撤回。

Now, on the breakeven point, it was -- it's been a couple of years when we said we had a target of 130. Well, we are lower than that. And it depends on the mix, clearly. Now, how does the impact of capacity increase -- what kind of impact does it have on our breakeven point? To be honest, we have run the simulations and it doesn't give any material impact at all. And the main reason is because our top line growth.

現在，就損益平衡點而言——我們說過我們的目標是 130，已經有幾年了。嗯，我們比那還低。顯然，這取決於混合情況。現在，產能增加會產生怎樣的影響－對我們的損益平衡點有什麼樣的影響？說實話，我們已經進行了模擬，但它並沒有產生任何實質的影響。主要原因是我們的營業收入成長。

Basically, when I look at the growth trajectory going forward, the ASP of our tools is giving us a higher absolute gross margin. And that is covering the higher absolute cost. So the breakeven point is not that much impacted at all.

基本上，當我展望未來的成長軌跡時，我們工具的平均售價為我們帶來了更高的絕對毛利率。這涵蓋了更高的絕對成本。因此損益平衡點並沒有受到太大的影響。

Great. And just one final on the same subject. What roughly would the headcount increase be by the end of 2007?

偉大的。並且只針對同一主題進行一次期末考。到 2007 年底，員工總數會增加多少？

Yes, the headcount increase, we have to be careful for double counting because that will be -- if we compare the end of 2005, we have about 5,500. We could see, we could envisage a 10% growth in 2007 which part of that growth is already included in the increased guidance we gave for research and development. And also, if we grow the top line, we need more output in the factory. We probably need a few more people in the factory also.

是的，員工人數增加了，我們必須小心避免重複計算，因為如果我們與 2005 年底進行比較，我們的員工人數約為 5,500 人。我們可以看到，我們可以預見 2007 年將實現 10% 的成長，其中一部分成長已經包含在我們為研發提供的增加的指導中。而且，如果我們要增加營業收入，就需要工廠增加產量。我們工廠可能還需要多幾個人。

So you cannot just double count the 10%. It'll be spread over the factory which will go into cost of goods, which will guide you on the gross margins. It will be in R&D. We gave you the guidance there. And it'll be in customer support because we increased our installed base [with our] customers actually paying for those people. So that's the way that you should at that 10% level.

所以你不能重複計算 10%。它將分攤到工廠，計入商品成本，從而指導您的毛利率。它將處於研發階段。我們在那裡為您提供了指導。這將體現在客戶支援方面，因為我們增加了安裝基礎，而客戶實際上為這些人付費。所以這就是你在 10% 水平上應該採取的方式。

Very clear. Thanks very much.

非常清楚。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And on the subject, it's important that you understand that we're not managing the Company on optimism. So cost of structure for us is a fundamental thing that we have to manage in a flexible fashion. We're not just saying because we are going to grow we can go ahead and invest. That's not the case. We are always cautious that we have the capability to pull back on those different investments.

關於這個問題，重要的是您要明白，我們並不是靠樂觀主義來管理公司的。因此，結構成本對我們來說是必須以靈活的方式進行管理的基本因素。我們不只是說因為我們要發展，所以我們可以繼續投資。事實並非如此。我們始終保持謹慎，確保我們有能力撤回這些不同的投資。

So, clearly, there is a difference between us being optimistic about the top line and a need for capacity and us managing the costs structure. We have a costs structure which is highly flexible.

因此，顯然，我們對營業收入和產能需求的樂觀態度與我們管理成本結構之間存在差異。我們的成本結構高度靈活。

The next question is from Mr. Robert Maire. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自羅伯特·梅爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Robert Maire, Needham & Company. When I look at the two new technologies, immersion and double exposure, or two new techniques I should say, could you give us your sense as to the growth rates of each through '07 and beyond? And is one accelerating over the other and what do they look like in terms of percentage of sales and differences in profitability? I'm just looking for some more detail as those two. And do you see a more, perhaps, finite life for double exposure than immersion? I'm looking for more detail on that.

羅伯特·梅爾（Robert Maire），Needham & Company。當我看到兩種新技術，即浸沒式曝光和雙重曝光，或者應該說是兩種新技術時，您能否告訴我們每種技術在 2007 年及以後的成長率如何？其中一種成長速度是否比另一種快？就銷售百分比和獲利能力差異而言，它們的表現如何？我只是想了解這兩個方面的更多細節。您是否認為雙重曝光的壽命可能比浸入式曝光更有限？我正在尋找有關此內容的更多詳細資訊。

Okay. First of all, a quick note on the technologies because all this is sometimes used with marketing terms by our customer. Double exposure already exists for long time. It has been used by people in the Flash memory, in the logic, etc. It's a way basically to say you pass twice your wafer into the machine.

好的。首先，簡要介紹這些技術，因為我們的客戶有時會將所有這些技術與行銷術語一起使用。雙重曝光早已存在。它已被人們應用於快閃記憶體、邏輯等。這種方法基本上就是將兩次晶圓放入機器中。

But your design, your reticule is a normal reticule. So double exposure, it's a [yield important] technique, or whatever it is, and it may happen with our machines, or it may not, I don't know. In fact, what the customer needs is machines that are fairly fast because if you do double processing it costs money. And I do not know [entries] and I don't think that helps you more than just improving yields on given technology.

但是您的設計，您的標線是一個正常的標線。因此，雙重曝光是一種[產量重要]技術，或者不管它是什麼，它可能在我們的機器上發生，也可能不會，我不知道。事實上，客戶需要的是速度相當快的機器，因為如果進行雙重處理就會花費金錢。我不知道[條目]，我也不認為這除了提高給定技術的產量之外還能為你帶來更多幫助。

Double patterning is a situation where you redesign -- you design your reticule, or you cut your reticule in two, and you expose once and then you expose another reticule. And you hope that the two reticules, basically, will expose an image which matches. Therefore, you need machines which are very, very precise in what we call overlay.

雙重圖案化是一種重新設計的情況 - 您設計您的標線，或者您將您的標線切成兩半，然後曝光一次，然後再曝光另一個標線。您希望這兩個標線基本上能夠顯示出相符的影像。因此，您需要能夠非常非常精確地進行我們所說的覆蓋的機器。

This technology is the one that says that potentially will allow post-40 nanometer, the 32 nanometer nodes, you will need those type of technology. The alternative to double patterning at 32 nano is EUV.

據稱，這項技術有可能實現 40 奈米後、32 奈米節點，您將需要這些類型的技術。32 奈米雙重圖案化的替代方案是 EUV。

So having made that clear, how do we see the things happening? As of now, immersion is the only technology that will be really ramping in high volume. This double patterning for, I would say, 40, 45, etc. would be just potentially a prototype-type environment. But immersion, at this moment at 55 nanometer node or at 45 nanometer node, is the technology of choice of, I would say, most of the market.

那麼，明確了這一點之後，我們又該如何看待事情的發生呢？截至目前，沉浸式體驗是唯一真正能夠大規模普及的技術。我想說，這種 40、45 等雙重模式可能只是一種原型環境。但我認為，目前 55 奈米節點或 45 奈米節點的浸入式技術是大多數市場的首選技術。

That will start -- that has started already at the end of last year. That is -- 2007 is the year of major starts. And every other customer has very different speeds.

這將會開始——這在去年年底就已經開始。那就是──2007年是大事開辦之年。而且每個客戶的速度都非常不同。

In 2008 you will have certain numbers of needs for beyond 40 nano, some 32 nano. And that's where we will have some double patterning happening. And there is going to be some double patterning dry and some double patterning immersion. We can't answer which is which. But we expect, again, to be on a fairly low volume.

2008 年，將會有一定數量的需求超越 40 奈米，甚至 32 奈米。這就是我們將要發生雙重模式的地方。並且會有一些雙重圖案乾燥和一些雙重圖案浸泡。我們無法回答哪個是哪個。但我們再次預期交易量會相當低。

2009 could see some production in double patterning while we start introducing EUV. EUV will be serving to do some R&D recipes and build up of infrastructure. So double patterning will be a necessity for customers who will already have the design ready at 32 nano, which is not an obvious question, by the way. So if they do have ready, they have no other choice than going double patterning.

2009 年我們開始引進 EUV，同時可以看到雙重圖案化技術的一些生產。EUV 將用於一些研發方案和基礎設施建設。因此，對於已經在 32 奈米下準備好設計的客戶來說，雙重圖案化是必需的，順便說一句，這不是一個顯而易見的問題。因此，如果他們確實準備好了，他們除了採用雙重模式之外別無選擇。

And 2010, 2011 will be the area, the time of overlap. There will be an overlap between double patterning and EUV. And we expect EUV to win the battle by 2011 and 2012 in terms of economics.

而2010年、2011年將是區域、時間的重疊。雙重圖案化和 EUV 之間會有重疊。我們預計 EUV 將在 2011 年和 2012 年從經濟角度贏得勝利。

Just a follow up in terms of double patterning, I would assume you've probably done some modeling or some math as to, obviously, double patterning requires, I would assume, more [sepurs] given that the wafers are spending more time being exposed, even though it's only at the more critical layers. What does that mean in terms of revenue or number of machines required per wafer or per dye or per whatever in American? How does that impact your revenue? Is that more of a revenue driver than immersion or --

關於雙重圖案化，我想問一下，你可能已經做了一些建模或數學計算，顯然，雙重圖案化需要更多的[sepurs]，因為晶圓要花費更多的時間進行曝光，即使只是在更關鍵的層。就美國每片晶圓、每份染料或每件物品所需的收入或機器數量而言，這意味著什麼？這對您的收入有何影響？這是否比沉浸式體驗更能帶來營收成長？或者——

In fact, we did, in our famous simulation tool, all kinds of scenarios regarding the different usage of double patterning dry, immersion and/or EUV in different trends. And it's not very obvious that -- well, let me put it this way, the simulation that we put in place is the one that makes sense. So what we see is exactly what I said, that is, at some point between 2009 and 2010 you are going to see double patterning as the most economical thing for the customers. Therefore, we will grow revenue by the fact that there is double usage of our machine.

事實上，在我們著名的模擬工具中，我們針對不同趨勢中雙重圖案化乾法、浸沒式和/或 EUV 的不同用途設計了各種場景。這並不是很明顯——好吧，讓我這樣說吧，我們實施的模擬是有意義的。所以我們看到的情況正如我所說的，即在 2009 年至 2010 年之間的某個時間點，你會看到雙重圖案對客戶來說是最經濟的。因此，透過機器的雙重使用，我們將增加收入。

And then by 2011 or 2012, EUV becomes most cost-effective. But it's still an expensive technology. So it is cheaper than double patterning. But it will still be showing some additional revenue which is, as I said at the beginning in my introduction, where I said the more you go on the [moves] curve, whatever you do, whether you use double patterning or you use EUV, you are going to pay more. But EUV by then will be cheaper than double patterning.

到 2011 年或 2012 年，EUV 將成為最具成本效益的技術。但它仍然是一項昂貴的技術。因此它比雙重圖案化更便宜。但它仍然會帶來一些額外的收入，正如我在介紹開始時所說的那樣，你在[行動]曲線上走得越多，無論你做什麼，無論你使用雙重圖案還是使用 EUV，你都會支付更多。但到那時，EUV 將比雙重圖案化更便宜。

So what does that mean --

那麼這意味著什麼——

Robert, I'm sorry, we need to move forward.

羅伯特，很抱歉，我們需要繼續前進。

Okay. Go ahead.

好的。前進。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes. It's Mehdi Hosseini, Friedman Billings Ramsey. I have two questions. First, if you could provide the number of 1900 immersion tools that are in the backlog.

是的。他們是梅赫迪·胡賽尼、弗里德曼·比林斯·拉姆齊。我有兩個問題。首先，您能否提供積壓的 1900 個浸入式工具的數量。

And also, as a sort of a clarification, what do you mean by healthy bookings in Q1? Does that imply flat, down, up? I just -- I think healthy is a very generalized term. So if you could just provide us with more color. I'm not asking for any guidance, just to better understand you I would like to hear more what you mean by healthy.

另外，作為一種澄清，您所說的第一季的健康預訂量是什麼意思？這是否意味著持平、下降、上升？我只是——我認為健康是一個非常籠統的術語。所以如果您能為我們提供更多顏色的話。我並不是在尋求任何指導，只是為了更好地理解你，我想更多地了解你所說的健康是什麼意思。

I will handle the easy one, which is the 1900 backlog, and I let the specialist, Peter, to handle the healthy bit.

我將處理簡單的部分，即 1900 個積壓問題，並讓專家 Peter 來處理健康部分。

The -- we have in backlog 20 immersion tools. And at this point I'm not going to tell you the split between 1700 and 1900, also because it's a very, how do you say, moving mix. As I basically say, customers are hesitating. 1900 is a better machine with a higher throughput, but it's more expensive and it comes --

我們積壓了 20 種沉浸式工具。此時我不會告訴您 1700 年和 1900 年之間的分裂，因為這是一個非常，怎麼說呢，移動的混合。正如我所說，顧客正在猶豫。 1900 是一款更好的機器，具有更高的吞吐量，但它更昂貴，而且——

But would it be fair to say that it's more than one since you booked one in the Q3 timeframe?

但是，既然您在第三季度就預訂了一個，那麼可以說不止一個嗎？

Yes. It's more than one.

是的。不只一個。

Yes, of course. Yes. Yes.

是的當然。是的。是的。

Is that less than five?

少於五嗎？

You are getting hotter, but it's still cold. But I will stop there, okay? Healthy, Peter?

你感覺越來越熱，但天氣仍然很冷。但我就到此為止了，可以嗎？健康嗎，彼得？

Healthy. I feel healthy. Right, it's -- I said it this morning during the press conference also, healthy means good, which is the right level of order intake to support our 2007 growth profile. And that's a general statement. But that's exactly what it is because if we say it's going to be up, it's going to be down, it's going to be flat, I don't want to go there.

健康。我感覺很健康。是的，我在今天早上的新聞發布會上也說過，健康意味著良好，這是支持我們 2007 年成長前景的正確訂單量水準。這是一個普遍的說法。但事實確實如此，因為如果我們說它會上漲，它就會下跌，它會持平，我不想去那裡。

Because of the issues that we have discussed during this call, is that with the 1900 and the 1700 transitions, the choices customers need to make there, it becomes, with those big customers and the choices that they need to make, pretty difficult for us to predict when they will give us the orders. But if there is one certainty it's that they will give us the orders.

由於我們在這次電話會議中討論的問題，隨著 1900 和 1700 的轉變，客戶需要做出選擇，對於這些大客戶以及他們需要做出的選擇，我們很難預測他們何時會給我們訂單。但有一件事是肯定的，那就是他們一定會向我們下達命令。

And the orders are basically driven by the fact that sub-40 nanometer production capability becomes available with the 1900i. We do expect growth from the industry. We have [warned] several customers in 2006 that want to basically fill up their new fabs in 2007. So they're all drivers for what we feel growth.

訂單的增加主要是因為 1900i 具備了 40 奈米以下的生產能力。我們確實期待該行業能夠實現成長。我們在 2006 年就曾警告過幾位客戶，他們希望在 2007 年基本上填滿他們的新晶圓廠。所以它們都是我們感覺到的成長的驅動力。

But the timing of when, for instance, that Flash immersion ramp sub-40 nanometer in Q3 or in Q4 will happen, whether that's going to lead to orders in Q1 or in Q2, we don't know. And that is what we are trying to say. It's going to be healthy enough to support our growth for next year.

但是，例如，Flash 浸沒式製程在第三季或第四季達到 40 奈米以下的階段的具體時間，以及這是否會在第一季或第二季帶來訂單，我們都不知道。這就是我們想要表達的意思。它將足夠健康，以支持我們明年的成長。

Sure. When you talk about --

當然。當你談論——

Mehdi, sorry, we have to move on. We're going to try to squeeze one more question in. Thank you.

邁赫迪，很抱歉，我們必須繼續前進。我們將嘗試再提出一個問題。謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Mark FitzGerald. Please state your company name followed by your question.

下一個問題來自馬克·菲茨傑拉德先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Thanks. Two questions on the Brion acquisition here. Logic guys are struggling with their cost of design here. Do you find it's been able to slow the cost of design going forward significantly?

謝謝。這裡有兩個關於 Brion 收購的問題。邏輯人員正在努力降低設計成本。您是否發現它能夠大幅降低未來的設計成本？

This is the billion question, the EUR/dollar question. Yes, we believe that the way to solve customer problems in design is going to try to give them leverage in the market which they can optimize at the end. We are far from the design part of it, so I can't really answer your question specifically how much we would save in the front-end.

這是十億的問題，歐元兌美元的問題。是的，我們相信，在設計中解決客戶問題的方法是嘗試讓他們獲得市場優勢，並最終實現最佳化。我們距離設計部分還很遠，所以我無法具體回答你的問題，我們在前端可以省下多少錢。

And I also believe that the industry has [to material], therefore, we have to do some looping tests where we see how much flexibility we can give our customers in terms of how much they have to invest in optimizing design upfront or how much they have to invest in optimizing the manufacturing part.

而且我還相信，行業必須[對材料進行]，因此，我們必須進行一些循環測試，以了解我們可以為客戶提供多大的靈活性，即他們需要在前期優化設計上投入多少，或者他們需要在優化製造部分上投入多少。

So we're going to do, of course, the best effort to move value into the post-sign off part of the business, if I make myself clear. When the design is signed off then you optimize it. And if you can do a great job in optimizing a design, post-sign off, then there will be a reduction of costs on the pre-sign off. And we will benefit from the value generic, by the famous Jay's question, is your margin going to go up, or by the capability to sell more tools.

因此，如果我說清楚的話，我們當然會盡最大努力將價值轉移到業務的簽約後部分。當設計被簽署後，您就可以對其進行最佳化。如果您能在簽署後出色地優化設計，那麼簽署前的成本就會降低。我們將從價值通用中受益，根據著名的傑伊的問題，你的利潤是否會上升，或透過銷售更多工具的能力。

So that is the whole logic of the Brion acquisition. And, guess what, we feel extremely enthusiastic about what we have found so far.

這就是收購 Brion 的全部邏輯。而且，你猜怎麼著，我們對迄今為止的發現感到非常興奮。

Can you give us any details of what this means for revenues, what they're doing at this point and what the financial model looks like? Is there any --

您能否向我們詳細說明這對收入意味著什麼、他們目前正在做什麼以及財務模型是什麼樣的？有沒有——

No. As you know, Brion is a private entity. So whatever is 2006 is under the private data. And we haven't [closed] ourselves. So it would be preliminary to give you a business plan-type idea after we close. It's too early.

不。如您所知，Brion 是一家私人實體。因此，2006 年的一切都屬於私人資料。我們也沒有封閉自己。因此，在我們結束後，我們可以初步給您一個商業計劃類型的想法。太早了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator, I think we'll close the call now. That -- my watch says we're out of time. So I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today and we look forward to seeing you around in the future. And I'll leave it to you then, operator, to close formally.

接線員，我想我們現在就結束通話。那——我的手錶說我們沒時間了。因此，我要感謝大家今天的參加，我們期待將來能再次見到你們。那麼，接線員，就交給你來正式結束了。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2006 fourth quarter and annual results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect now.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，ASML 2006 年第四季和年度業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。