艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2004 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the ASML conference call. At this moment all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question and answer session. I would like now to hand over the conference to Frank D'Hoore for the introduction. Mr. D'Hoore go ahead please.

早安，歡迎參加 ASML 電話會議。 此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。 稍後我們將進行問答環節。 現在我想將會議移交給 Frank D'Hoore 進行介紹。 D'Hoore 先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much. This is Franki D'Hoore from ASML Investor Relations. First of all, thank you all for participating in the ASML second quarter results conference call.

非常感謝。 我是 ASML 投資者關係部的 Franki D'Hoore。 首先感謝大家參加ASML第二季業績電話會議。

Joining us today are Doug Dunn our Chief Executive Officer and Peter Wennink our Chief Financial Officer. This call will be one hour, and we will start with one question per person in the first round to give everybody an opportunity. When there is time left at the end, we may take your follow-on questions.

今天與我們一起出席的有我們的執行長 Doug Dunn 和我們的財務長 Peter Wennink。 這次通話將持續一個小時，第一輪我們將從每個人提出一個問題開始，以便讓每個人都有機會。 當最後還有時間時，我們可能會回答您的後續問題。

But, before we start, please allow me to read the Safe Harbor statement and it says that the matters discussed during this call include forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties, including, but not limited to economic conditions, product and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new product developments, ability to enforce patents, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment and other risks indicated in the filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

但是，在我們開始之前，請允許我讀一下安全港聲明，其中說，本次電話會議中討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於經濟狀況、產品和定價、製造效率、新產品開發、執行專利的能力、原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性、貿易環境以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的其他風險。

At this point I'd like to hand over to Doug for a brief statement, followed by your questions.

現在我想把時間交給道格作一個簡短的發言，然後回答大家的提問。

Okay. Thank you Franki for reading that exciting Safe Harbor statement. I'm not going to give a long introduction, because I guess by now you've had a chance to listen to our webcast, see the presentation attached to it, read the press report we issued and the comments based upon that. And, possibly some of you even called in this morning to the press conference.

好的。 感謝 Franki 閱讀這份令人興奮的安全港聲明。 我不會做長篇介紹，因為我想現在您已經有機會收聽我們的網路廣播、查看隨附的簡報、閱讀我們發布的新聞報導以及基於此的評論。 也許你們中的一些人今天早上甚至還打電話來參加新聞發布會。

So, I just want to make a couple of comments and then throw it open to your questions.

因此，我只想發表幾點評論，然後回答你們的問題。

I think the numbers themselves from our second quarter speak for themselves. It's a tribute again to my management team and the whole of ASML that we could produce such a comprehensively solid set of numbers out of Q2. And you may ask questions on those numbers as the call goes by.

我認為我們第二季的數據本身就說明了一切。 這再次向我的管理團隊和整個 ASML 致敬，我們能夠在第二季拿出如此全面且穩健的數據。 通話過程中，您可能會詢問有關這些數字的問題。

I'd like to, however, comment more on the future rather than the recent past. We have built, as you can see, a very heavy backlog of orders during Q2. Our backlog increased from €1.35b to €1.8b, that's over a 30% increase in the quarter.

然而，我更想評論未來，而不是最近的過去。 如您所見，我們在第二季度累積了大量的訂單。 我們的積壓訂單從 13.5 億歐元增加到 18 億歐元，本季成長了 30% 以上。

It's a very high quality backlog, quality in the sense of its -- a lot of its 300mm leading edge products. And, it's from a range of customers, all the -- all the guys you can think of I guess have got at least 1 order in there and some 10 and 12. So, it's a quality backlog in every sense.

這是一個品質非常高的積壓訂單，品質指的是其許多 300 毫米前沿產品。 而且，它來自一系列客戶，所有你能想到的，我猜他們至少有 1 個訂單，有些甚至有 10 或 12 個。所以，從各方面來說，這都是高品質的積壓訂單。

It's quality also in that the prices we'll be getting for those products is increasing. You can see the average selling price for that backlog has increased quite substantially, as we forecast it would in January and also in April, as the mix swung from the early easy capacity of 200mm into the more kind of thoughtful capacity of 300mm. That swing now, as we suggested would happen in mid year is happening, and that shows in the value of the backlog, as the 300mm devices are more expensive, and also in the gross margin from that backlog.

品質也提高了，這些產品的價格也會上漲。 您可以看到，積壓訂單的平均售價已大幅上漲，正如我們在 1 月和 4 月所預測的那樣，因為產品組合從早期的 200 毫米簡易產能轉變為更為周到的 300 毫米產能。 正如我們所預測的那樣，這種轉變將在年中發生，並且正在發生，這體現在積壓訂單的價值上，因為 300 毫米設備更昂貴，同時也體現在積壓訂單的毛利率上。

We also recommended to you our gross margin will continue to increase through the year. That is again not news to anyone that's called in before. We've been on target now I think for 4 quarters on our gross margin ability to predict and I see no reason why we shouldn't be just as accurate for the next 2 quarters out, minimum.

我們也向您建議，我們的毛利率將在全年持續成長。 對於之前接到過電話的人來說，這並不是什麼新鮮事。 我認為，我們的毛利率預測能力已經連續 4 個季度達到了目標，我認為我們沒有理由不至少在接下來的 2 個季度保持同樣的準確性。

Beyond 2004, which will be in itself be a very good year, we look forward to 2005, and I say look forward to it with pleasure. Every indication we have so far, it is going to be a pretty bumper year. The discussions with customers to fill out our order book in the first half of 2005 are proceeding well. A lot of interest; more interest in the first half of 2005 than the first half of 2004, that's for sure at this early date. Therefore, all the kind of piece of evidence that recommend and suggest how next year will be, look very positive.

2004 年本身將是豐收的一年，我們展望 2005 年，並​​且非常高興地展望 2005 年。 到目前為止，所有跡像都表明，今年將是豐收的一年。 與客戶就 2005 年上半年訂單進行的討論進展順利。 很有興趣； 2005 年上半年人們的興趣將比 2004 年上半年更大，這一點在早期是肯定的。 因此，所有預測和暗示明年情況的證據看起來都非常積極。

So, just on that issue of the future, there's a lot of speculation around about when this will peak. I can say categorically from the facts that we have at our disposal today, today on July 14, there's not one fact at our disposal that indicates the peak is here, or even imminent. Therefore, we can say with the degree of confidence anyone can say about next year, it looks a very, very strong year.

因此，就未來的問題而言，人們對何時達到頂峰有很多猜測。 我可以明確地說，根據我們今天，也就是 7 月 14 日掌握的事實，沒有任何事實表明高峰已經到來，或者即將到來。 因此，我們可以像任何人對明年一樣充滿信心地說，明年看起來是非常非常強勁的一年。

And, in fact in our press release we implied, in fact we said, that the upturn will continue well into next year. That doesn't preclude it continuing all through next year by the way. We try to be factual here. We have visibility certainly in two or three quarters next year.

事實上，我們在新聞稿中暗示，實際上我們說過，這種好轉勢頭將持續到明年。 順便說一句，這並不妨礙這種情況持續到明年。 我們盡力以事實為依據。 我們肯定能預見到明年兩到三個季度的情況。

So, I want to give that kind of upfront information, maybe it helps you ask your questions. And, with that I will turn the floor over to the moderator and the questions. Just one little rule please, a lot of people on the line, about 150 people, therefore it is initially one question each. When we've exhausted those we'll come back for a second go round for second questions. So, moderator perhaps you can begin the question process.

所以，我想提供這種預先的信息，也許它可以幫助您提出問題。 現在，我將把發言權交給主持人並提出問題。 請遵守一個小規則，由於線上人數很多，大約有 150 人，因此每個人最初只能問一個問題。 當我們回答完這些問題後，我們會再回來回答第二個問題。 那麼，主持人，也許您可以開始提問過程。

And please introduce yourselves with your name and company you represent.

請介紹一下你們的姓名和你們所代表的公司。

As said, ladies and gentlemen we'll start with the question and answer session now. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Mr. Pelzer go ahead please.

正如所說，女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。 [操作員指示] 第一個問題來自 Pelzer 先生，請繼續。

Hello it's Ulrich Pelzer, Lehman Brothers. Just to clarify, the SG&A and R&D guidance that you've given. Does that extend to the end of 04 or to the end of the first half of 05? And, I am assuming that it's for the business as it stands today and it does not cover potential entry into other businesses.

您好，我是雷曼兄弟的 Ulrich Pelzer。 只是為了澄清一下您給予的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和研發指導。 這會延續到 04 年底還是 05 上半年末？ 並且，我假設它適用於當前的業務，並且不涵蓋進入其他業務的潛在機會。

So, it's to the end of 04 and there are no conditions on that. And, as regarding 05, just to pick up part of your question there, then providing 05 looks to be as good as we think it's going to be, we expect in 05 that those costs will inflate. I mean there is inflation and a lot of them are people related. Therefore, if you allow the inflationary effect, -- I think there'll be an impact of inflation in the first half of 05, we'll try and contain that, but it will be there.

所以，到 04 年底為止，沒有任何條件。 至於 05，只是為了回答您問題的一部分，那麼如果 05 看起來和我們想像的一樣好，我們預計 05 年這些成本將會膨脹。 我的意思是存在通貨膨脹，其中許多都與人有關。 因此，如果允許通貨膨脹的影響，我認為 2005 年上半年會出現通貨膨脹的影響，我們會盡力控制它，但它還是會存在的。

And, also one other point that may help you understand this, because I'm not going to give a guarantee on this one. We are making significant inroads into Japan as you know. That requires from us a resource base to help grow that market place for us, it's important. And, therefore there may be some relatively minor additional expense in SG&A to take us into Japan. But it's going to be single-digit as opposed to double-digit growth there, in the SG&A and R&D numbers. Okay?

另外還有一點可能有助於您理解這一點，因為我不會對此做出保證。 如您所知，我們正在大力進軍日本市場。 這需要我們建立資源基礎來幫助我們擴大市場，這很重要。 因此，當我們進入日本市場時，銷售、一般及行政管理費用 (SG&A) 可能會產生一些相對較小的額外費用。 但銷售、一般及行政開支及研發費用將呈現個位數成長，而非兩位數成長。 好的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, next question is from Mr. Berhaus(ph). Go ahead please.

好的，下一個問題來自 Berhaus 先生。 請繼續。

Yes, a question on your gross margin. Also, in earlier questions there has been a -- in earlier quarters there has been some question about your gross margin 300mm versus 200mm. Considering your backlog being mostly exposed to 300mm, is it fair to say that your gross margin 300mm are very close to 200mm?

是的，關於你們的毛利率有個問題。 此外，在先前的問題中，曾有人質疑你們的毛利率是 3 億還是 2 億。 考慮到您的積壓訂單主要集中在 300 毫米晶圓上，是否可以說您的 300 毫米晶圓的毛利率非常接近 200 毫米晶圓？

And, could you indicate what the relative gross margins are for 300mm versus 200mm at the moment?

您能否指出目前 300 毫米和 200 毫米的相對毛利率是多少？

I think what we said in the past was that -- and Peter can correct me if I'm wrong here. That they are converging, I mean obviously two years ago gross margin of 300mm was terrible, it was a new system etcetera.

我想我們過去說過的是──如果我錯了，彼得可以糾正我。 它們正在趨同，我的意思是，顯然兩年前 300mm 的毛利率很糟糕，這是一個新系統等等。

They are converging, and I think that that convergence point will be reached early in 05. So, as we go through this year the gap between the two will narrow. 200mm still at a slight advantage because of the -- the tremendous experience we have with the product. But that gap is narrowing, there is a convergence point, it looks like early 05, maybe Q1, Q2 of 05 we will meet that convergence point, possibly a cross over point there.

它們正在趨同，我認為這個趨同點將在 2005 年初達到。因此，隨著今年的到來，兩者之間的差距將會縮小。 200mm 仍然略有優勢，因為我們對產品有豐富的經驗。 但差距正在縮小，有一個收斂點，看起來就像 05 年初，也許 05 年第一季、第二季我們將達到那個收斂點，也可能是交叉點。

And I think the biggest driver there to add onto that is, the cost of goods reduction program on the 300mm platform, which will conclude, not entirely, but in the shape of the program as we -- currently execute it, will end in Q1 of 05 and that will be part of the general cost of goods reduction we always have on our products. But the focused efforts will be there in the Q1 of 05.

我認為，最大的推動力是 300mm 平台上的商品成本削減計劃，該計劃雖然不會完全結束，但會以我們目前執行的計劃的形式結束，將於 05 年第一季結束，這將是我們產品總體商品成本削減的一部分。 但重點將放在 05 年第一季。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then the gross margin we have forecast obviously is the blended mix that we see right now. So, when we see 40% in Q4 this year, that's taking into account the mix shift between 200mm and 300mm.

那麼，我們預測的毛利率顯然是我們現在看到的混合比例。 因此，當我們在今年第四季看到 40% 時，這是考慮到 200 毫米和 300 毫米之間的混合變化。

Right, right. Okay, thank you.

對，對。 好的，謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Gayle(ph). Go ahead please. Mr. Gayle are you there?

下一個問題來自蓋爾先生（音）。 請繼續。 蓋爾先生，您在嗎？

We hear you. We can hear you.

我們聽到了。 我們能聽到你的聲音。

Go ahead Mr. Gayle.

繼續吧，蓋爾先生。

Yes hello, can you guys hear me?

是的，你好，你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We hear you Matt.

我們聽到了你的聲音，馬特。

Yes, I just have a question on your ability to do churns orders in the second half. I think when you gave the breakdown of the way the backlog shakes out it's about 100 units are in the backlog for new systems in the second half. I'm just interested in what type of capacity you have to take in an order and ship it before the end of the year. Either based on where your component supply is and have you done any pre-ordering to be able to do a ramp quicker than 6 months?

是的，我只是對您下半年完成攪拌訂單的能力有疑問。 我認為，當您對積壓訂單的處理方式進行細分時，下半年新系統的積壓訂單約為 100 個單位。 我只是想知道您有什麼樣的能力承接訂單並在年底前發貨。 根據您的零件供應情況，您是否進行過預訂，以便能夠在 6 個月內更快地完成生產？

Okay Matt. So, what we gave you was the backlog that was -- As you know, we issue a very crisp and clean backlog. What we don't tell you, because it's not yet on the books, is the orders we have in our pending file. The orders that came in the last few days, they require trimming on terms and conditions and some final adjustments. There are several handfuls of those.

好的，馬特。 所以，我們給你的是積壓工作——如你所知，我們發布了非常清晰的積壓工作。 由於尚未記錄在案，因此我們不會告訴您的是我們待處理文件中的訂單。 過去幾天收到的訂單要求對條款和條件進行調整並進行一些最後的調整。 這樣的事還有很多。

And, all those orders will get inputted into the order book, some are in by now I should imagine. And, they will get turned, or churned, whichever -- we use the word turn here - turned this year. So, we have the strong ability to turn significant number of orders within the 6 month period.

而且，所有這些訂單都將輸入到訂單簿中，我想現在有些訂單已經輸入了。 而且，它們將會轉變，或者攪動，無論哪種——我們在這裡使用轉變這個詞——都是今年轉變的。 因此，我們有能力在 6 個月內完成大量訂單。

In fact some of the hint of that is in our statement, when we said Q3 would be flattish on new systems, with acceleration taking off again in Q4. If you do some estimates on the backlog we've given you, you may think it's going to be flatter 2 quarters. That's because as yet we haven't got all the orders in for Q4, they're coming in as we speak. And there'll be a -- without hinting here there'll be a good lift off again in Q4.

事實上，我們在聲明中已經暗示了這一點，當時我們表示，第三季新系統銷售將保持平穩，而第四季銷售將再次加速成長。 如果您對我們給您的積壓訂單進行一些估算，您可能會認為兩個季度的積壓訂單會更加平穩。 這是因為到目前為止我們還沒有收到第四季度的所有訂單，它們正在我們說話的時候到達。 並且，無需暗示，第四季將會再次出現良好的發展勢頭。

Yes, and I would like to add there, that all the material that we need for those orders has been -- that has been secured. Those were pending orders, orders we received from customers where we're still in the final negotiations of terms and conditions. And we only include it in the order backlog when we have confirmed it back to the customer. So, some of that is still pending, but from a production point of view we've already secured the material.

是的，我想補充一點，我們完成這些訂單所需的所有材料都已經得到保障。 這些都是待處理的訂單，是我們從客戶那裡收到的訂單，我們仍在就條款和條件進行最後的談判。 而只有當我們向客戶確認後，我們才會將其納入訂單積壓中。 因此，其中一些仍懸而未決，但從生產的角度來看，我們已經確保了材料的安全。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。 謝謝。

We would like to take the question, our next question from the US, and Mr. Matt Gable go ahead please.

我們想回答這個問題，下一個問題來自美國，請馬特蓋博先生提問。

Maybe you said this earlier, what is the ASP for new units shipped in Q2? What was the ASP?

也許您之前說過，第二季新出貨產品的平均銷售價格是多少？ ASP 是什麼？

For new units shipped in Q2? A flurry of activity with paperwork here while people try and -- €9m I think is the -- €8.9m I think we're finding that number -- €8.9m I believe.

對於第二季度發貨的新設備？ 這裡的文書工作忙得不可開交，人們試圖——900 萬歐元是——890 萬歐元，我想我們正在找到這個數字——我相信是 890 萬歐元。

Okay.

好的。

Euros I'm talking.

我說的是歐元。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

My pleasure.

我的榮幸。

The next question is from Mr. Jay Daner(ph) from the US as well. Go ahead please.

下一個問題也是來自美國的 Jay Daner 先生。 請繼續。

Okay, thank you very much, Jay Daner from JP Morgan. Doug the question is what was the unit mix of new system orders between 300mm and 200mm in the second quarter? And, how does that compare to what it was in the first quarter? And, what I'm trying to get at, is this the sort of signal the shift, or the second wave from 200mm to a bias towards 300mm?

好的，非常感謝摩根大通的傑伊丹納 (Jay Daner)。 道格，問題是第二季度 300 毫米和 200 毫米之間的新系統訂單單位組合是怎樣的？那麼，與第一季相比情況如何？ 而我想知道的是，這是轉變的訊號，還是從 200 毫米向 300 毫米傾斜的第二波訊號？

Okay Jay, let me comment -- kind of not quantify it, but - one of my colleagues is just trying to find that precise number. I don't know the precise number, we'll try and give it to you in a few seconds if you hang on there. But, absolutely you're right -- without knowing the number I can tell you there was a mix shift in Q2. And, if you recall Jay, because I know you're regular on this line with us every quarter. We forecast that even in January of this year and again in April of this year.

好的傑伊，讓我評論一下——不是量化它，但是——我的一位同事正試圖找到那個精確的數字。 我不知道確切的數字，如果您稍等一下，我們會在幾秒鐘內盡力給您答案。 但是，你絕對是對的——雖然不知道具體數字，但我可以告訴你，第二季出現了混合轉變。 而且，如果您還記得傑伊，因為我知道您每個季度都會透過這條線路與我們聯繫。 我們甚至預測今年 1 月和 4 月也會如此。

And, we said there'd be 2 phases, the first phase filling out 200mm shelves and the second phase beginning to expand into the new 300mm shelves. We're now going through the transition onto that second phase. I think it'll -- it's a way to go yet obviously.

並且，我們說過將分為兩個階段，第一階段填充 200 毫米貨架，第二階段開始擴展到新的 300 毫米貨架。 我們現在正處於向第二階段的過渡階段。 我認為──這顯然還有很長的路要走。

So, I can't give you a number just on the phone just now. Maybe my colleagues are still trying to find it. But you're right in principle, that shift has happened, and it reflects itself, most obviously, in our average selling price on the backlog. You see how much it's gone up in the past 3 months.

所以，我現在無法透過電話給你一個號碼。 也許我的同事仍在努力尋找它。 但原則上你是對的，這種轉變已經發生，最明顯的是，它反映在我們積壓產品的平均售價上。 您可以看到過去 3 個月它上漲了多少。

If you can get the data in the next several minutes--

如果你能在接下來的幾分鐘內取得數據——

They're trying right now, so there's--

他們現在正在努力，所以——

Why don't you just move onto the next question and come back if you can find it?

為什麼你不直接轉到下一個問題，如果能找到的話再回來呢？

Thanks Jay, we'll do that.

謝謝傑伊，我們會這麼做的。

Yeah we have this only on the backlog [indiscernible] not on the orders.

是的，我們只有積壓的[音訊不清楚]，沒有訂單。

We can find it out.

我們可以找到答案。

Jay I don't think in this room we have that information available actually. We've got most things, but not that. We can get back to you on that one though if you would like that?

傑伊，我認為我們這個房間裡實際上沒有這些資訊。 我們擁有大多數東西，但沒有這個。 如果您願意的話，我們可以就此回覆您？

Do you have the unit backlog split between the first and second quarter, 300mm/200mm?

第一季和第二季的單位積壓訂單量是否各佔 300 毫米/200 毫米？

Yes we do.

是的，我們有。

Could we -- While we're looking could we move onto the next question rather than have [inaudible] -- We'll come back to you Jay in a few seconds.

我們可以嗎——在我們查看的同時，我們可以進入下一個問題，而不是[聽不清楚]——我們會在幾秒鐘後再回复你，傑伊。

Okay next question from Mr. Donoghue(ph). Go ahead please.

好的，下一個問題來自 Donoghue 先生。 請繼續。

Hi, good afternoon gentlemen. I had a question on the ASP for orders in Q2. If I look at what you report in terms of backlog for new systems, and if I try to construct orders every quarter and the ASP. Basically in Q2 I found an ASP for orders for new systems of €13.7m, which is a very strong increase.

嗨，先生們下午好。 我對第二季訂單的平均銷售價格 (ASP) 有疑問。 如果我查看您關於新系統積壓的報告，並且我嘗試每個季度建立訂單和 ASP。 基本上，在第二季度，我發現新系統訂單的平均售價為 1370 萬歐元，這是一個非常強勁的成長。

I was wondering, besides obviously the shift towards 300mm, was there also a shift towards high-end 300mm an Immersion?

我想知道，除了明顯轉向 300mm 之外，是否也轉向高端 300mm 和 Immersion？

Yes. So, the shift was both ways, both the 300mm and towards 193mm and we took some Immersion orders don't forget in Q2 as well.

是的。 因此，轉變是雙向的，既有 300 毫米，也有 193 毫米，而且我們在第二季度也接到了一些浸入式訂單，別忘了。

And would you expect that to be a trend or well it can fluctuate on -- maybe even quarter?

您是否認為這會成為一種趨勢，或者可能會出現波動——甚至可能是季度波動？

It's going to fluctuate Jean but, you know, over a long time, I wouldn't speak for a month or a quarter, over a long time it's a trend. And it's a demonstrable trend. When I joined this Company 5 years ago the ASP was around -- I don't know €4.5m/€5m. Now we're looking at €10m and that's trend going to continue.

它會波動，但你知道，在很長一段時間內，我不會在一個月或一個季度內說話，在很長一段時間內這是一種趨勢。 這是一個明顯的趨勢。 當我 5 年前加入這家公司時，平均銷售價格約為 450 萬歐元 / 500 萬歐元。 現在我們的目標是 1000 萬歐元，而且這種趨勢還會繼續下去。

Each system we produce has more features, it is more complex, has more throughput, more chip generating capacity, and therefore it's got a higher value, and customers pay us for that.

我們生產的每個系統都有更多功能，更加複雜，吞吐量更大，晶片生成能力更強，因此價值更高，客戶也因此向我們付費。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Bilton(ph). Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自比爾頓先生。 請繼續。

Yes, hello its [indiscernible] Bilton here, West LB. A few quarters ago you forecast that the trend in used systems would slow down and you would see a limited availability of used systems in the market.

是的，你好，我是 [音頻不清晰] Bilton，西LB。 幾個季度前，您預測二手系統的趨勢將會放緩，並且您會看到市場上二手系統的供應有限。

Yet, until today in the order backlog and the shipments you stay very strong. Do you have any explanations for that? Or what do you see now? Do you think use will go down from this point onwards?

然而，直到今天，你們的訂單積壓和出貨量仍然保持強勁。 你對此有什麼解釋嗎？ 還是你現在看到了什麼？ 您認為從現在起使用量會下降嗎？

Forecasting the used market is the most difficult task we have actually. I don't say that to excuse myself, but it's a fact. We know this -- it's difficult to tell what a customer is going to want to do with his old equipment sometimes and, so, it's difficult for us to forecast that.

預測二手市場其實是我們面臨的最困難的任務。 我這樣說並不是為了為自己辯解，但這是事實。 我們知道這一點——有時很難知道客戶會如何處理他的舊設備，因此，我們很難預測這一點。

I think the trend will be down however. I think that the people with used equipment -- are using it fairly fully right now in their existing fabs, and therefore there'll be a decreasing availability of those systems on the market over the next -- maybe not the next 3 months, the next 3 to 12 months, but time will tell.

但我認為趨勢將會下降。 我認為擁有二手設備的人現在正在其現有工廠中充分使用這些設備，因此未來市場上這些系統的可用性將會減少——可能不是未來 3 個月，而是未來 3 到 12 個月，但時間會證明一切。

And, if we're wrong on that one, forgive us. It's a small thing to forecast and it's very easy to get it wrong.

如果我們錯了，請原諒我們。 預測是一件小事，而且很容易出錯。

But in the near future it won't change?

但近期內不會改變嗎？

Well you see we have a used system backlog of 27 units for the next 6 months or so. 12 months actually, but most of it's in the next 6 months. It's skewed very heavily in the short term. And that's how it tends to be. So, between conference calls, every quarter we -- you know there's a lot of churn of used systems.

您將看到，在接下來的 6 個月左右的時間裡，我們有 27 個二手系統積壓。 實際上是 12 個月，但大部分是在接下來的 6 個月內。 短期內，其偏差非常嚴重。 事實往往如此。 因此，在每季的電話會議之間，我們——你知道有很多二手系統在流失。

So, I think that you're going to see maybe Q3 and Q4 flattish, not growing, as the rest of the market grows around it. And, probably a slight reduction maybe in Q2 of next year as the market finally dries up for those systems for a while.

因此，我認為你可能會看到第三季和第四季持平，而不是成長，因為其他市場都在圍繞它成長。 而且，由於這些系統的市場最終會暫時枯竭，明年第二季可能會略有下降。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。 謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Van de Breggen(ph). Go ahead please.

下一個問題是 Van de Breggen 先生（ph）提出的。 請繼續。

Yes -- Referring to your slides 6 and 7 of your presentation, very interesting. I was trying to wondering how do you match -- I mean currently the -- some kind of going along utilization capacity and demand. With the current growth rates, you have -- I mean in revenues and also in units?

是的——參考您簡報的第 6 張和第 7 張投影片，非常有趣。 我想知道您如何匹配——我的意思是目前——某種利用能力和需求。 按照目前的成長率，您有—我的意思是收入和單位數？

I guess the question was how do we correlate the semi-conductor demand against the capacity and therefore derive the utilization factor for it? Is that correct?

我想問題在於我們如何將半導體需求與產能關聯起來並由此得出其利用率？ 對嗎？

Exactly, yes.

確實如此。

Well, there are all kinds of ways to get to the answer, and I won't bore you with the long tweakers on this one. Suffice it to say we use 5 techniques and average them out. The world has probably hundreds of techniques that do the same thing.

好吧，有各種各樣的方法可以得到答案，我不會用冗長的調整來讓你厭煩這一點。 可以說我們使用了 5 種技術並取平均值。 世界上可能有數百種技術可以完成同樣的事情。

So, the utilization is a published number historically, so you can -- you know by type of end user what utilization is. Don't forget all of our systems are on line, so we also know per system the utilization of our tools in the factory. So, that's one factor.

因此，利用率是一個歷史公佈的數字，因此您可以——根據最終用戶的類型了解利用率是多少。 不要忘記我們所有的系統都是線上的，所以我們也知道每個系統在工廠中工具的利用率。 這是一個因素。

The growth of semi-conductors in dollars is well forecasted, and let me say largely accurately in the 1 to 2 year category, beyond that who knows. We can convert that into units and the millions of square inch of silicone are also well forecast, and that is a kind of a correlation point there.

半導體的美元成長預測很準確，我可以說，在 1 到 2 年的範圍內基本上準確，超出這個範圍誰也不知道。 我們可以將其轉換成單位，數百萬平方英寸的矽膠也能夠很好地預測，這是一種相關點。

And then we can look at the sales of steppers that we believe is going to be the worldwide sale of steppers this year and next year, based on some assumptions. Look at the size mix between 200mm and 300mm. And, work out from that what capacity we're going to install along with our two competitors over the years.

然後，我們可以看看步進機的銷售情況，根據一些假設，我們認為這將是今年和明年全球步進機的銷售情況。 查看 200 毫米和 300 毫米之間的尺寸組合。 並據此計算我們和我們的兩個競爭對手未來幾年將安裝多少容量。

And it works out that that capacity that is going to be installed from the 3 major companies who produce steppers and scanners, and the calculated demand based on forecast on semi-conductor revenue sales and ASP's and millions of square inch of silicone, line up to give some tension still through this year and well into next year. And, that's kind of supported by the high utilization factor. So, we do it by that technique.

結果表明，生產步進機和掃描儀的三大公司的安裝產能，以及基於對半導體收入銷售額和平均銷售價格以及數百萬平方英寸矽片的預測而計算出的需求，將在今年和明年繼續造成一定的緊張局面。 並且，這在某種程度上得到了高利用率的支持。 所以，我們採用這種技術來做到這一點。

You can see some of the assumption we use on page 5 of the presentation.

您可以在簡報的第 5 頁看到我們使用的一些假設。

Pretty atypical cycle then?

那麼，這個週期是不是相當不典型呢？

Sorry?

對不起？

Pretty atypical cycle then?

那麼，這個週期是不是相當不典型呢？

I'm sorry again I missed it. You've broken up.

我再次很抱歉我錯過了。 你們已經分手了。

Your assumption is then, it's a pretty atypical not typical cycle?

那你的假設是，這是一個非常不典型的週期？

I think it's slightly atypical just now. I mean, don't forget our customers have been in a growth for 2.5 years or so. They were leading off previous install capacity in 2000. That shows on slide 7 where there was a distinct lag between the sales of semi-conductors and the bookings, if you like of equipment.

我認為現在的情況有點不典型。 我的意思是，不要忘記我們的客戶已經處於增長期大約 2.5 年了。 他們在 2000 年就達到了安裝容量的領先地位。第 7 張投影片顯示，半導體的銷售額和設備的預訂量之間有明顯的延遲。

So, now that's caught up with itself, and now cautious customers are placing orders in line with demand. There's no exuberance out there yet. So there's no Blenheim light rush to go -- you know, over populate their fabs. And, when there is, we'll see that coming through in different ways.

因此，現在已經趕上了，現在謹慎的客戶正在根據需求下訂單。 目前還沒有任何繁榮的跡象。 因此，不存在布倫海姆輕工業廠區擁擠的問題——你知道，他們的工廠已經過度擁擠了。 並且，當有這種情況發生時，我們會看到它以不同的方式實現。

So, it is atypical because of the huge growth in 2000 and a huge fall in 2001 left a lot of under utilized capacity.

因此，這是不典型的，因為 2000 年出現了巨大的成長，而 2001 年卻出現了大幅下滑，導致大量產能未充分利用。

I would like to add that for the slide number 6 we use the semi-conductor revenue growth on the low end of that range that we give on page 5. So, for this year, 2004, 25% growth and for 2005, 14% growth.

我想補充一點，對於投影片 6，我們使用了第 5 頁給出的範圍低端的半導體收入成長率。因此，對於今年（2004 年）而言，成長率為 25%，而 2005 年則為 14%。

Whereas if you ask me personally, I'm a 30% this year and near 30% for next year as well. So that's towards the top end of the ranges. For that we chose the conservative numbers from your perspective to make sure that we don't over exaggerate this tightness of supply.

但如果你問我個人，我今年的預期是 30%，明年的預期也是接近 30%。 這就是範圍的頂端。 為此，我們從您的角度選擇了保守的數字，以確保我們不會過度誇大供應緊張的情況。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

One answer to a question that Jay Daner asked about the backlog split in unit terms in 300mm and 200mm. In the first quarter, the first quarter of 2004 we had a backlog of 163 units of which 40% was relating to 300mm tools and 60% to 200mm tools. That reversed in Q2 where we had a backlog of 174 units, where 60% was 300mm units and 40% was 200mm units. So, that's for Jay -- That's the answer to Jay's question.

Jay Daner 詢問了關於以 300 毫米和 200 毫米為單位的積壓訂單分割問題，對此給出了一個答案。 2004 年第一季度，我們的積壓訂單為 163 個單位，其中 40% 與 300 毫米工具有關，60% 與 200 毫米工具有關。 而第二季的情況則發生了逆轉，我們積壓了 174 台，其中 60% 為 3 億台，40% 為 2 億台。 這就是傑伊的問題的答案——這就是傑伊問題的答案。

Next question please.

請問下一個問題。

We'd like to go back to the US. First Mr. Irani(ph). Go ahead please.

我們想回美國。 首先是伊拉尼先生（音）。 請繼續。

Thank you. One of the trends in your bookings this quarter gentlemen was the units book came down, but the bookings growth in fact was strong, and probably better than the industry average.

謝謝。 先生們，本季預訂量的趨勢之一是預訂量下降，但預訂量實際上增長強勁，可能優於行業平均水平。

Could you talk about booking -- unit booking trends ahead and, you know, where you see the count of tools per fab, are we still at about 40 lithography tools per line? And, do you see the unit bookings reaccelerating in addition to the favorable mix vibrations that you're seeing right now?

您能否談談預訂情況——未來的單位預訂趨勢，以及您看到每個晶圓廠的工具數量，每條生產線是否仍擁有約 40 台光刻工具？ 除了您現在看到的有利的組合振動之外，您是否看到單位預訂量正在重新加速？

Okay. So, I mean guess what everybody realized, I'll just repeat it, although I'm sure it's common knowledge.

好的。 所以，我的意思是猜猜大家都意識到了什麼，我只是重複一遍，儘管我確信這是常識。

Every 300mm piece of equipment outputs in the same unit of time if it's the same speed; 2.5 times as much silicone as a 200mm, I think that's the background to your question in a way Ali.

相同速度下，每300mm設備單位時間內輸出量相同；矽膠的量是 200 毫米的 2.5 倍，我想這就是你問題的背景，阿里。

So, we will see possibly a slow down in the growth of unit sales, because each unit is worth 2.5 times as much silicone as -- you know as the previous 200mm unit. But, of course, the value of those units is considerably higher, the value to me and to the customer by the way.

因此，我們可能會看到單位銷售量的成長放緩，因為每個單位的矽膠價值是先前 200 毫米單位的 2.5 倍。 但是，當然，這些單位的價值要高得多，順便說一下，對我和客戶來說都是如此。

And, therefore, as you saw in Q2, we increased our backlog of units by only 10 systems net number, but we increased the value of the backlog by over 30%, from €1.35b to €1.8b. That trend will continue -- Will continue until the 200mm sales reduce to some kind of base level, replacement base level, and then it may flatten out. We're years away from that point yet.

因此，正如您在第二季度看到的那樣，我們的積壓訂單單位淨數量僅增加了 10 個，但積壓訂單的價值卻增加了 30% 以上，從 13.5 億歐元增加到 18 億歐元。 這種趨勢將會持續下去——將持續到 200 毫米銷量下降到某種基準水平、替代基準水平，然後可能會趨於平穩。 我們距離那個目標還有好幾年的時間。

So, we may find that the number of systems that we -- and previously have talked about quite freely with you people, because it was a constant, all 200mm systems for the past 10 years. We'll now focus more on the value of the backlog, because frankly the number of units, whilst it's important from an approximation, the value plan is what drives our bottom line.

因此，我們可能會發現，我們之前與你們自由討論過的系統數量，因為在過去 10 年裡，所有 200 毫米系統的數量都是恆定的。 我們現在將更專注於積壓的價值，因為坦白說，單位數量雖然從近似值來看很重要，但價值計畫才是推動我們底線的因素。

So, we'll be increasingly focusing on that very fact. That as the units begin to slow down in growth possibly, not reduce but slow down, the value will continue to accelerate, and that was demonstrated precisely in Q2.

因此，我們將越來越關注這一事實。 隨著單位數量的增長可能開始放緩，不是減少而是放緩，價值將繼續加速，這在第二季度得到了證實。

I would like to add to that, are the -- Is that if you read through our presentation on the website and you take our expectations for the year 2005, which is on page 5, which is basically the worldwide litho forecast. You take our market share that we actually have, that means that 2005 for us is going to be a strong year. I think that most of the analysts would have that in their models, that 2005 is a better year for us than the year 2004.

我想補充一點，如果您閱讀我們網站上的介紹，您會發現我們對 2005 年的預期，即第 5 頁，基本上就是全球光刻預測。 考慮到我們實際擁有的市場份額，這意味著 2005 年對我們來說將是強勁的一年。 我認為大多數分析師都會在他們的模型中認為 2005 年對我們來說是比 2004 年更好的一年。

In order to support that good year, we would need to see sequential growth in the order backlog, at least in the value, but very likely also in the number of the units. So, that's why we think that throughout this year we will experience that.

為了支持這個美好的一年，我們需要看到訂單積壓的連續成長，至少是價值的成長，但很可能也是單位數量的成長。 所以，我們認為今年我們將會經歷這種情況。

You're preaching to the choir Peter. I'm actually wondering if the unit growth reaccelerates only because we're moving to some of these higher metallization processes. You know, some part of your customers, the OEM guys are now planning 60,000/100,000 wafer start, 300mm a month fabs. And the other part of your customers, the foundry and the larger customers are migrating towards 10 to 12 metal layers.

你這是在對著唱詩班講道，彼得。 我實際上想知道單位增長是否只是因為我們正在轉向一些更高的金屬化過程而重新加速。 您知道，您的部分客戶，OEM 廠商現在正計劃啟動每月 60,000/100,000 片晶圓的生產，建造 300 毫米晶圓廠。 而您的另一部分客戶、代工廠和較大的客戶正在遷移到 10 到 12 個金屬層。

And, I'm just trying to identify when -- If you have visibility as to when the unit acceleration would come to add to the favorable mix migrations you're seeing right now?

而且，我只是想確定什麼時候——您是否清楚何時單位加速會添加到您現在看到的有利組合遷移中？

So, you're taking it to the next degree now. So, we have two things working in our favor from a unit point of view. One thing that works against us, if you like, from a unit point of view, is the wafer size increase obviously. The one thing that works for us from a unit point of view is the fact that processes have become more complex. So, a 30 layer process 5 years ago is now a 40 layer process. Therefore it requires more, not less, litho production hours to produce the same product.

所以，你現在正在將其提升到一個新的水平。 因此，從單位角度來看，有兩件事對我們有利。 從單位角度來看，對我們不利的一件事是晶圓尺寸明顯增加。 從單位角度來看，對我們有用的一件事是流程變得更加複雜。 因此，5 年前的 30 層工藝現在變成了 40 層工藝。 因此，生產相同的產品需要更多的而不是更少的光刻生產時間。

And, the fab size, which I remember doing fabs, big fabs of 10,000 starts a month and then 20,000 starts a month and now its 30,000. It's coming nearer to 50,000, 60,000 and 80,000 I hear talked about as well.

至於晶圓廠的規模，我記得以前大型晶圓廠每月開工的產能是 10,000 座，後來是 20,000 座，現在是 30,000 座。 我聽說這個數字正接近 50,000、60,000 和 80,000。

So, that all mitigates in favor of higher volume. So, you've got to work out the -- the kind of simultaneous equation yourself here. But I think there will be a second kick to 300mm growth, probably -- I think it could come next year personally, where some of these more advanced processes begin to really move through into production, consuming a lot more stepper production hours, and therefore requiring many more units to support them.

因此，所有這些都有利於提高音量。 所以，你必須自己解決這種聯立方程式。 但我認為 300mm 的成長可能會迎來第二次動力——我個人認為這可能會在明年出現，屆時一些更先進的工藝將開始真正投入生產，消耗更多的步進生產時間，因此需要更多的單位來支持它們。

Great. And Doug one final question. I'm wondering if the better yields at Intel on 90 nanometer have to do with your 193 nanometer tools and production there.

偉大的。 道格，最後一個問題。 我想知道英特爾在 90 奈米製程上的更高產量是否與你們的 193 奈米工具和生產有關。

You'll have to ask Intel that. But I would like to think so.

這個問題你得去問英特爾。 但我希望如此。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。 謝謝。

The next question is also from the US. Mr. Stuart Adrian. Go ahead please.

下一個問題也是來自美國的。 史都華·阿德里安先生。 請繼續。

Yes hi there. Just looking at the gross margin in the second quarter, I think you gave relatively specific guidance of an improvement of about 200 basis points and you managed to upside that by quite a considerable margin. Could you just say what changed in the quarter to allow you to get that? Was that you just being conservative? And, if so, can we look at the numbers you've provided for Q3 and Q4 in a similar sort of light.

是的，你好。 僅從第二季的毛利率來看，我認為您給出了相對具體的指導，即提高約 200 個基點，並且您成功地將其提高了相當可觀的幅度。 您能否說一下本季發生了哪些變化，讓您實現了這個目標？ 你只是保守嗎？ 如果是這樣，我們能否以類似的眼光來看待您提供的第三季和第四季的數據。

The guilty man for that one - speak now my CFO Peter Wennink.

那個有罪的人——現在說我的財務長彼得·溫寧克 (Peter Wennink)。

It's -- The main reason is that the outlook for the second quarter was indeed higher than we originally thought. We shipped more systems than we originally thought.

主要原因是第二季的前景確實高於我們最初的預期。 我們運送的系統比我們最初想像的要多。

Okay.

好的。

So that gave a -- gave a much better loading in -- the faster you get the much better coverage of the fixed costs. And, also some of the cost of goods reductions that we were planning came in somewhat earlier.

因此，這給出了一個更好的加載——你越快獲得固定成本的更好覆蓋。 而且，我們計劃的部分商品成本削減也提前到來了。

And, I think that was a favorable mix. But since the extra systems basically were pull-ins from the third quarter, that means that we should look at the third quarter as a quarter that is in unit terms is about equal to the second quarter, with an acceleration in the fourth. So, that's -- we will not see that same kicker effect in Q3, because Q3 generally we have a couple of weeks where we are at 70% production capacity because of the vacation period. So, that's why we think and we expect that the outlook in terms of new systems will be about a similar rise in the second quarter.

我認為這是一個有利的組合。 但由於額外的系統基本上是從第三季開始引入的，這意味著我們應該將第三季視為單位數與第二季大致相同的季度，而第四季會加速。 所以，我們不會在第三季看到相同的衝擊效應，因為第三季由於假期的關係，通常有幾週我們的生產能力達到 70%。 所以，這就是為什麼我們認為並且預計第二季新系統前景將出現類似的成長。

Okay. And, just a clarification. On the R&D guidance you've given, is that net of your credit?

好的。 並且，只是澄清一下。 關於您給予的研發指導，這是您的信用淨額嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It is. Okay, thanks very much.

這是。 好的，非常感謝。

The next question is also from the US. Mr. Mark Fitzgerald. Go ahead please.

下一個問題也是來自美國的。 馬克·菲茨杰拉德先生。 請繼續。

Right, I was wondering on the backlog here on systems, if you can give us a split on memory and micro-processor and foundry?

對，我想知道系統積壓的情況，您能否提供我們記憶體、微處理器和代工廠的劃分？

Yes, so memory is 36% by value of the €1.8b. Foundry is 43% by value of the €1.8b and the IDM which everyone else, 21%. That should add up to 100% if our colleagues have got their sums right.

是的，所以記憶體佔18億歐元價值的36%。 在 18 億歐元的價值中，Foundry 佔 43%，而 IDM 佔 21%。 如果我們的同事計算正確的話，這個數字應該達到 100%。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。 謝謝。

My pleasure. By the way, it's acceptable to give us congratulations on our results you know.

我的榮幸。 順便說一句，對我們的成績表示祝賀是可以的。

Okay. The next question is from Mr. Power from [indiscernible]. Go ahead please.

好的。 下一個問題來自[音訊不清楚]的鮑爾先生。 請繼續。

Hi guys, it's Mark Power here from Redburn(ph) & Partners. A question for Peter. Based on your assessment of the [S&E] market, what would you estimate would be the effect on future operating expenses? Supposing ES&L have entered the USA market.

大家好，我是 Redburn(ph) & Partners 的 Mark Power。 問彼得一個問題。 根據您對[S&E]市場的評估，您估計這會對未來的營運費用產生什麼影響？ 假設 ES&L 已經進入美國市場。

And, secondly, does it look like entry into this market would require significant upfront capital?

其次，進入這個市場是否需要大量的前期資本？

I think those are all relevant questions, at the moment we have communicated an affirmative position on whether to enter that market or not. I'm not going -- on this call going to give any speculative indications of level of operating costs or capital that we would need. [Be great] to have this question first, whether it's sensible for us not to go into that market. And, I think that -- you might want to spend one or two minutes on this.

我認為這些都是相關的問題，目前我們已經就是否進入該市場表達了肯定的立場。 在這次電話會議上，我不會對我們所需的營運成本或資本水準做出任何推測性的暗示。 首先要問這個問題，我們不進入那個市場是否明智。 而且，我認為——你可能想花一兩分鐘來討論這個問題。

But we are looking into this market, that's generally known. We are looking into what the customers in that market need. And, we are currently investigating it. Hopefully this year we can finalize that -- some of the technical issues that we think need to be resolved before we can take a decision.

但我們正在研究這個眾所周知的市場。 我們正在研究該市場的客戶需要什麼。 目前我們正在對此進行調查。 希望今年我們能夠最終確定一些我們認為在做出決定之前需要解決的技術問題。

So, first things first, that means that the second [indiscernible] product aspect of it needs to be resolved. We need to take a position on it. And when we have taken that position we will go out and we will talk about it in length, I am absolutely certain about capital that we need and about the impact on the operating costs. So, it's too early Mark.

因此，首先，這意味著需要解決它的第二個[音訊不清晰]產品方面。 我們需要對此表明立場。 當我們採取這一立場時，我們將出去詳細討論這個問題，我絕對確定我們需要的資金以及對營運成本的影響。 所以，馬克，現在還太早。

Okay.

好的。

Next question from Mr. Shearer(ph). Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自 Shearer 先生。 請繼續。

Good afternoon gents. First unprompted, I'll congratulate you on your great quarter there. Gents, I just wanted to ask what would persuade you to go into the LCD stepper market. And, are you anywhere closer in making that decision?

先生們，下午好。 首先，我要主動祝賀你們在本季取得的優異成績。 先生們，我只是想問一下，什麼因素會吸引您進入 LCD 步進機市場。 那麼，您是否已經接近做出這個決定了？

All the persuaders [indiscernible] colleagues, said ultimately a good business case, okay? I know that sounds a bit trite I know. But, behind a good business case you've got to have a robust and growing market. I think there's no doubt it is a robust and growing market. There's an 80, 100, 120, 150 system sales you know in that market as we speak. We enjoy none of that.

所有說服者[音訊不清楚]的同事都說，最終這是一個很好的商業案例，好嗎？ 我知道這聽起來有點陳腔濫調。 但是，一個好的商業案例背後必須有一個強勁且不斷成長的市場。 我認為毫無疑問這是一個強勁且不斷成長的市場。 正如我們所說，該市場上的系統銷售量有 80、100、120、150 個。 我們對此毫無興趣。

You've got to have the right kind of customer and world coverage. I think we have that. We're connected to all those customers as it happens through our primary business. And you've got to have a product which sells on its merit, not just based on some cost competitive -- you know, let's go and compete on price position.

您必須擁有正確的客戶類型和全球覆蓋範圍。 我想我們已經做到了。 我們透過主要業務與所有這些客戶建立聯繫。 你必須擁有一款能夠憑藉自身優勢銷售的產品，而不僅僅基於成本競爭力——你知道，我們要在價格上競爭。

And that is the point that Peter alluded to, we're doing some careful investigations internally and with potential customers, to see if we do have such a concept. So, that's what would convince us.

這就是彼得提到的觀點，我們正在內部和潛在客戶進行一些仔細的調查，看看我們是否確實有這樣的概念。 所以，這就是讓我們信服的原因。

I mean, it's quite simple and you know, you can see there's no magic in that. And, we will come to the right conclusion when we have all those facts, and I won't even predict when that will be.

我的意思是，這很簡單，你知道，你可以看出這其中沒有什麼魔法。 當我們掌握了所有這些事實時，我們就會得出正確的結論，我甚至無法預測那將何時發生。

That's great Doug. Thank you.

太棒了，道格。 謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Orji. Go ahead please.

下一個問題來自奧吉先生。 請繼續。

I just have one question on the customer win in Japan. Can you clarify for us what type of tools this customer win is? Is it a full line [indiscernible] or just Immersion related? Also, can you tell us what other products you are making in Japan? With this win in the bag, do you think there's a lot more success to come?

我只有一個關於日本客戶贏得情況的問題。 您能為我們解釋一下這位客戶贏得的工具類型嗎？ 它是全線[音訊不清晰]還是僅與沉浸式相關？ 另外，您能告訴我們您在日本還生產哪些其他產品嗎？ 有了這場勝利，您認為未來還會取得更多成功嗎？

Yes, what I'm prepared to say, and I'd recognize that customers have the right of veto, quite properly, on information about them. What I'm prepared to say right now is what I can say, and I won't go beyond that in confidence to our customers. It's a 200 millimeter tool, and therefore it's advanced. It's the beginning of a process, and I'm going to say no more about that one specific example of the customer that we've indicated we'd won in the press release today. So that's as far as I'm going to go on that one.

是的，我準備這麼說，而且我承認客戶對於有關他們的資訊擁有完全的否決權。 我現在準備說的就是我能說的，我不會向我們的客戶透露更多。 這是一種 200 毫米的工具，因此很先進。 這是一個過程的開始，關於今天的新聞稿中我們提到的那個贏得客戶的具體例子，我不再多說。 這就是我要講的全部內容。

Regarding our general progress in Japan, you know, it's good to look back and see what happens, so in the past three years we've gone from zero customers to now four customers. That, I think, is good progress. I'm never satisfied, none of us are, but it's good progress. It is a difficult market for us. Geographically, it's a long way away, as you can imagine, and of course, we have some competitors there who will do anything, quite bluntly, to keep us out of their market. They are ably supported by other issues.

關於我們在日本的整體進展，回顧一下發生的事情是件好事，在過去三年裡，我們從零個客戶發展到現在的四個客戶。 我認為這是一個好的進展。 我永遠不會滿足，我們誰也不會滿足，但這是一個很好的進步。 對我們來說這是一個困難的市場。 從地理位置上來說，你可以想像到，那裡距離我們很遠，當然，我們在那裡也有一些競爭對手，他們會不擇手段地將我們擋在他們的市場之外。 它們得到了其他問題的有力支持。

So we're making good progress, and in fact, we have now, having made the progress we have made, we have now decided to accelerate our presence in Japan, our involvement there, our progress there, by putting resources in place in anticipation of more orders to come in the future, and I'm talking medium and long-term future, not tomorrow afternoon. That was, in fact, in the press release recently, another press release, but that's the message recently from our colleagues.

因此，我們正在取得良好的進展，事實上，在取得了這些進展之後，我們現在已經決定加快在日本的存在、參與和進步，投入資源以期在未來獲得更多訂單，我說的是中長期的未來，而不是明天下午。 事實上，這是最近的新聞稿，另一份新聞稿，但這是我們同事最近發出的信息。

If you remember earlier, I alluded to the fact that SG&A next year may go up a little bit, due to inflation, and possibly one or two specific investments we want to make for the future. Japan is one of them.

如果您還記得，我之前提到過，由於通貨膨脹，明年的銷售、一般和行政費用可能會略有上漲，而且我們可能希望為未來進行一兩項特定的投資。 日本就是其中之一。

It's, by the way, not the sort of the people that we're [indiscernible].

順便說一句，他們不是我們[音頻不清楚]的那種人。

No, it's nothing like that, no. So in general terms, a very valued customer, a new one, with an advanced 200 millimeter tool, the beginning of, hopefully, a healthy relationship, and we certainly have been quite open about the fact that we deserve more market share in Japan, but we have to earn that. We're going to earn that by supplying great tools, and putting excellent, qualified people in place in Japan to represent us, and that's happening, and we've announced that already.

不，根本不是那樣。 所以總的來說，我們是一個非常有價值的客戶，一個新客戶，擁有先進的 200 毫米刀具，希望這是一個健康關係的開始，我們當然非常坦誠地承認我們應該在日本獲得更多的市場份額，但我們必須贏得它。 我們將透過提供出色的工具並在日本安排優秀、合格的人員來代表我們來獲得這一地位，而這正在發生，我們已經宣布了這一點。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Ramo (ph). Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自拉莫先生（音）。 請繼續。

Hi, good afternoon. Would it be possible to have an update on your option programs, please?

嗨，下午好。 您能更新一下您的選項程式嗎？

Yes, that's for the customers, and we're in very intense discussions about terms and conditions. That's the only thing there that I can say. We're a bit disappointed that it isn't going faster, but we're moving, basically ahead on this new proposal, inch by inch, you could say, but we're getting there. It is new for our customers. It is new for us, and what the customers want is the guarantee on the option delivery, which we can guarantee, so it does have a new smell to them, so that's why it takes a little longer than we thought, as we're moving in the right direction.

是的，這是為客戶考慮的，我們正在就條款和條件進行非常激烈的討論。 這是我唯一能說的話。 我們有點失望，因為它沒有進展得更快，但我們正在推進，基本上是一步一步地推進這個新提案，你可以說，我們正在到達那裡。 這對我們的客戶來說是新鮮事。 這對我們來說是新鮮事，客戶想要的是選擇交付的保證，我們可以保證，所以這對他們來說確實是一種新的味道，這就是為什麼它花費的時間比我們想像的要長一些，因為我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Minon (ph). Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自米農先生（音）。 請繼續。

Yes, hi, good afternoon. Congratulations on a great quarter. Just a question on margins into 2005 - given that your ASP is going to be clearly higher, even from Q1 2005 and continuing to be possibly sequentially increasing through the rest of the year, and given that you're saying that you're peaking on cost reduction plans around Q1 2005, does your margin have much more leverage beyond 40% into 2005?

是的，你好，下午好。 恭喜本季取得優異成績。關於 2005 年的利潤率，我只想問一個問題：鑑於您的平均銷售價格 (ASP) 從 2005 年第一季度開始就明顯上漲，並且在今年剩餘時間內可能繼續連續上漲，又鑑於您說您​​的成本削減計劃將在 2005 年第一季度達到頂峰，那麼您的利潤率在 2005 年是否會有超過 40% 的槓桿？

Well, you said much more, as the term suggests. Yes, it has more leverage, certainly. We never pretended that 40% is satisfactory for us, and in fact, in the last peak year in 2000, we were over 40%, around 42%, I think, from memory. We said also, probably too many times to colleagues such as yourself, that we can get back to those margins in the next peak, and I think the next peak is next year, so we are putting a number on it. We expect to go through that 40% value, which we'll achieve in Q4, providing all the market conditions are as we anticipate, and there's no untoward happening.

好吧，正如該術語所暗示的那樣，您說的還很多。 是的，它確實具有更大的影響力。 我們從來沒有假裝說 40% 對我們來說是令人滿意的，事實上，在 2000 年的最後一個高峰年，我們的成長率超過了 40%，我記得大概是 42% 左右。 我們也曾多次對您這樣的同事說過，我們可以在下一個高峰期恢復到這些利潤率，我認為下一個高峰期就是明年，所以我們正在為此設定一個數字。 我們預計，如果所有市場條件都符合我們的預期，並且沒有發生任何不良事件，我們將在第四季度實現這一目標。

The mix shift, by the way, the ASP movement, is a result of more exotic products, if you like. It is not necessarily a direct reflection of gross margins. I must caution you slightly on that, but your primary point is, can we do better than 40%? The answer is, we have done in the past, and we can do in the future.

順便說一下，如果你願意的話，混合轉變，即 ASP 運動，是更多奇特產品的結果。 它不一定直接反映毛利率。 我必須對此稍微提醒你，但你的主要觀點是，我們能否做得比 40% 更好？ 答案是，我們過去做過，將來也能做。

I would like to add, there is a lot of focus on the gross margin issue, but I think you should look at the gross margin, and look at the operating expense level. The OpEx level, as we call it, control the OpEx level which we clearly intend to do, and Doug made quite clear statements about that, that you can only think about single digit growth next year, because of reasons that he mentioned. You should focus on the operating income level, and when you compare that operating income line of what we're seeing in this cycle, as compared to the previous peak, then certainly we will break the operating income margin. That's compared to the peak year 2000. I mean, you can do the math.

我想補充一點，很多人關注毛利率問題，但我認為你應該看看毛利率，看看營業費用水平。 我們所說的營運支出水平控制著我們明確打算做的營運支出水平，Doug 對此做出了非常明確的聲明，由於他提到的原因，明年你只能考慮個位數的成長。 您應該關注營業收入水平，當您將我們在此週期中看到的營業收入線與先前的峰值進行比較時，我們肯定會突破營業收入利潤率。 這是與 2000 年的峰值相比。我的意思是，你可以算算看。

We'll break it high, wide and handsome.

我們將以高遠、寬闊和英俊的姿態打破它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, the next question again from the US, Mr. Bombani (ph). Go ahead, please.

好的，下一個問題還是來自美國的 Bombani 先生（音）。 請繼續。

Yes, I have a question on your backlog. I think you mentioned earlier that you are expecting your backlog, in revenue terms, to be up sequentially. Could you confirm that?

是的，我對您的積壓工作有一個疑問。 我想您之前提到過，您預計您的積壓訂單（就收入而言）將連續增加。 你能證實嗎？

Yes, we can confirm that.

是的，我們可以確認這一點。

And would you expect your net new orders in revenue terms, to be up sequentially?

您是否預期以收入計算的淨新訂單會較上季上升？

In revenue terms, did you say?

從收入角度來說，您這麼說嗎？

In euro terms, yes.

以歐元計算，是的。

In revenue terms, yes, I think we can say that as well, actually. It's quite a trick little question, actually, I can give you some math here, but I think we can also confirm that, yes.

從收入角度來說，是的，我認為我們實際上也可以這麼說。 這是一個相當棘手的小問題，實際上，我可以在這裡給你一些數學知識，但我想我們也可以證實這一點，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question again from Europe, Mr. Tasson (ph), go ahead, please. Mr. Tasson, are you there?

下一個問題還是來自歐洲，請塔森先生（音）提問。 塔森先生，您在嗎？

Yes, it's Joe Dutton from UBS. I just wondered if you could give us some detail on the TWINSCAN, the percentage of the backlog, and also the percentage of the order intake during the second quarter.

是的，他是瑞銀的喬·達頓。 我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 TWINSCAN、積壓訂單百分比以及第二季訂單量百分比的一些詳細資訊。

The percentage of backlog, by value again, it's 82%.

積壓訂單的百分比，以價值計算，為 82%。

Yes. In units, it's usual that you get that number. There's a backlog of 60% in unit terms of TWINSCAN products, and 40% 200 millimeter. That's in units. In value, it's in the presentation. It's 82% in value for TWINSCAN and 18% for steppers and scanners, 200 millimeter. We don't have that data available exactly on the bookings, but this is what we currently have here. It's probably separate [with the ART].

是的。 以單位來說，通常會得到這個數字。 TWINSCAN 產品單位積壓量為 60%，200 毫米產品積壓量為 40%。 這是以單位表示的。 其價值在於呈現方式。 對於 TWINSCAN 來說，其值為 82%，對於 200 毫米的步進機和掃描器來說，其值為 18%。 我們沒有關於預訂的具體數據，但這是我們目前擁有的數據。 它可能與 ART 是分開的。

Right, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Rees. Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自里斯先生。 請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon, maybe a more general question, but we have heard from [Inteleco] that they have been more successful, featuring higher yields for the 300 millimeter production capacity. Do you think that maybe that there may be concerns at the overall [indiscernible], and where that could be ramped faster to higher yields, and therefore maybe capacity could come up faster?

是的，下午好，也許這是一個更普遍的問題，但我們從 [Inteleco] 那裡聽說他們取得了更大的成功，300 毫米生產能力的產量更高。 您是否認為，也許人們對整體[音頻不清晰]存在擔憂，而能否更快地提高收益率，從而可能使產能更快地提升？

I think not, actually, you know, and I don't account for Inteleco. They give their own advice, not usually with me. But in general terms, there is now a clear breakthrough on yield between 200 and 200 millimeter. You would expect that. It's higher class equipment, and it's designed with modern techniques, and it's therefore able to yield higher. That was built in to the original equations and business plans, and I think the differences we see, mostly it's slightly positive.

事實上，我認為不是，你知道，我沒有考慮到 Inteleco。 他們給了自己的建議，但通常不是針對我的。 但整體來說，現在200到200毫米之間的產量已經有了明顯的突破。 你會期待這一點。 它是更高級的設備，採用現代技術設計，因此能夠產生更高的產量。 這是在原始方程式和商業計劃中建立的，我認為我們看到的差異大多是略微積極的。

It's not hugely positive, and in this, you're talking in yields that go from, you know, estimated - someone estimates 90% of yield and you get 92%. It's not exactly a doubling of yield, it's in the margin there, so the good news is, it's positive now, not negative. So I don't think it creates a great fear, if that's your concern, that suddenly we're going to find quite as many chips as we thought coming out of the equipment, and therefore, you know, it's going to limit the growth. Not at all. It's a relatively modest increase compared to what their original plans of our customers indicated.

這並不是非常積極的數據，在這裡，你談論的收益率是從估計的 - 有人估計收益率為 90％，而你得到的是 92％。 這並不是收益率的真正翻倍，而是在邊際上，所以好消息是，現在是正數，而不是負數。 因此，我認為這不會造成很大的恐慌，如果這是你的擔心的話，我們會突然發現從設備中出來的晶片數量和我們想像的一樣多，因此，你知道，這會限制增長。 一點也不。 與我們的客戶最初的計劃相比，這是一個相對溫和的成長。

I think that probably is a tribute to the equipment itself, and I'm sure that many a good consumer is going to reap the benefits of that in a low-cost phone or a low-cost DVD rewriteable, or whatever.

我認為這可能是對設備本身的一種讚揚，我相信許多優秀的消費者將會從低成本手機或低成本可重寫 DVD 或其他任何東西中獲益。

Fine. Okay, thanks.

美好的。 好的，謝謝。

Just one addition, not to Doug's answer, but the percentage bookings of 300 millimeter in the second quarter was 76% in units, for this quarter, if you're interested in that. That was Jay's question, also the question from Mr. Dutton from UBS.

我只想補充一點，不是針對 Doug 的回答，而是第二季度 300 毫米的訂單百分比為 76%，就本季度而言，如果你對此感興趣的話。 這是傑伊提出的問題，也是瑞銀集團達頓先生提出的問題。

The next question is from Mr. Pelzer. Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自佩爾澤先生。 請繼續。

Yes guys, just a bit of housekeeping stuff, actually. Peter, could you remind me what the CapEx budget and the DNA is, that you're planning for 2004, and then whether the working capital will need to rise? Inventories seem to be in check for the time being, but just as accounts receivables, basically?

是的，夥計們，實際上只是一些家務事。 彼得，您能否提醒我您為 2004 年制定的資本支出預算和 DNA 是多少，以及營運資本是否需要增加？ 庫存似乎暫時受到控制，但基本上只是應收帳款，對嗎？

Well, Peter is getting the numbers there. I do like it when you guys refer to my CFO as a housekeeper! I appreciate that very much!

嗯，彼得正在獲取那裡的數字。 我真的很喜歡你們把我的 CFO 稱為管家！ 我非常感激！

I was referring to myself as a housekeeper!

我稱自己為管家！

Well, as you know, this year, we will see an acceleration of some investments in probably flat equipment, and largely in the equipments side. We are going to have demo versions of the Immersion tools available, and also, of our new 1400 tools. So that will give rise to a CapEx rise which was net for the year to date, actually €50m only, but that included €17m of disposals, so we had €32m of the investments, and the estimate is currently that it will be about €54m for the remainder of the year, so that will bring gross purchases of BPNE to about €80m to €82m. The other question was, the depreciation in amortization?

嗯，正如你所知，今年我們將看到一些對可能持平的設備的投資加速，而且主要是在設備方面。 我們將提供 Immersion 工具的演示版本，以及我們的新 1400 工具的演示版本。 因此，這將導致資本支出增加，今年迄今的淨額實際上只有 5000 萬歐元，但其中包括 1700 萬歐元的處置，因此我們的投資為 3200 萬歐元，目前估計今年剩餘時間的投資額將達到約 5400 萬歐元，因此 BPNE 的總購買額將達到約 8000 萬歐元。 另一個問題是，攤銷中的折舊？

Yes, and how much - is there any need to grow working capital via accounts receivable for the second half?

是的，需要多少？下半年是否需要透過應收帳款來增加營運資金？

Yes, I think depreciation and amortization from accounts receivables was about €15m, and that will stay stable for the second half of the year. When you look at the working capital, accounts receivable went up, but what you cannot see from the information that we gave, is the actual day sales outstanding, calculated on an invoice-by-invoice basis. That actually stayed stable, and was just below 40 days, so AR went up because of the timing of the shipments. On timing, we had a lot of shipments in the month of June.

是的，我認為應收帳款的折舊和攤提約為 1500 萬歐元，並且今年下半年將保持穩定。 當您查看營運資金時，應收帳款增加了，但從我們提供的資訊中您無法看到的是按每張發票計算的實際未償銷售額。 該時間實際上保持穩定，略低於 40 天，因此應收帳款因發貨時間而上升。 從時間上看，我們在六月有很多貨物。

I think that on the inventory level, the inventory levels stayed, in absolute terms, as I said, at the same level. We are at inventory turns on work in progress and in raw materials of over 3 now. We're over 3.5 as a matter of fact, and our target for the end of the year is to go to four, so that means that, depending on what our Q1 outlook will be, it could be at absolute terms, the inventory level stayed higher, but in terms of inventory turns, it is going to be better.

我認為，就庫存水準而言，正如我所說，庫存水準從絕對值上保持在同一水準。 目前，我們在製品和原料的庫存週轉率已超過 3。 事實上，我們已經超過 3.5，而我們年底的目標是達到 4，這意味著，根據我們第一季的前景，從絕對值來看，庫存水準可能會保持較高水平，但就庫存週轉率而言，情況會更好。

So if we look at where the first half of 2005 could be, or especially the first quarter, the inventory could grow at between €80m and €100m in total, and we are, of course, trying to keep that as low as possible, but clearly, where we have a lot more to ship in higher value, even when terms go up, in absolute terms, inventories could, you know, grow and the quality of that inventory will be better than it is now.

因此，如果我們看一下 2005 年上半年，特別是第一季的情況，庫存總額可能會增長 8000 萬歐元至 1 億歐元，當然，我們會盡量將這一數字保持在盡可能低的水平，但顯然，我們有更多的高價值貨物需要運送，即使條款上漲，從絕對值來看，庫存可能會增長，而且庫存質量會比現在更好。

That's an incredibly clear statement. Thank you.

這是一個非常明確的聲明。 謝謝。

The next question is from Mr. Crossbill (ph). Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自 Crossbill 先生（音）。 請繼續。

Hi, there, it's actually Andrew Griffin at Merrill Lynch. I have a question on cash-flow and congratulations on a great quarter, and particularly, as well, I think, that the balance sheet isn't as well noted is some of the other items, and since your Analysts' Day back in 2002 when Peter, you talked about improving the balance sheet, it's really coming through a lot now. How far through that process of improving the supply chain do you think there are, and is there further to go with improving how this whole side of the business works?

大家好，我是美林證券的 Andrew Griffin。 我有一個關於現金流的問題，並祝賀您度過了一個美好的季度，特別是，我認為資產負債表沒有像其他一些項目那樣得到很好的關注，自從 2002 年分析師日彼得談到改善資產負債表以來，它確實取得了很大進展。 您認為供應鏈的改善進展到了哪一步？在改善整個業務運作方式方面是否還有進一步的改進空間？

Yes, Andrew, I think this is something that is now engraved in everybody's way of working here, that, like I said, we have a target of inventory turn of width and raw materials of 4, which effectively means you have a quarter worth of inventories of the raw materials and width, which, in that quarter, you will always shift. The whole supply chain is now tuned to actually support that.

是的，安德魯，我認為這已經深深地刻在了每個人的工作方式中，就像我說過的，我們的目標是寬度和原材料的庫存週轉率為 4，這實際上意味著你擁有價值四分之一的原材料和寬度的庫存，在那個季度，你將始終進行轉移。 整個供應鏈現已調整以實際支援這一點。

So I think 4 is our internal target. That will give us a higher level of cash generation, because we also have our day sales outstanding now, with about 40 days. So if you put it all to get a [indiscernible] improve, yes, perhaps a few days, but our standard payment terms is 30, so I think we're doing a pretty good job there. I think that the focus is now, if you want to generate cash, we are going to generate cash through the operating income line.

所以我認為 4 是我們的內在目標。 這將為我們帶來更高的現金產生水平，因為我們現在的未償銷售額天數約為 40 天。 因此，如果您全力以赴以獲得[音訊不清晰]的改進，是的，也許需要幾天時間，但我們的標準付款條件是 30 天，所以我認為我們在這方面做得很好。 我認為現在的重點是，如果你想產生現金，我們將透過營業收入線產生現金。

As we did in Q2, Andrew, as you noticed, so the cash will continue coming in, but through operating performance.

正如我們在第二季度所做的那樣，安德魯，正如你所注意到的，現金將繼續流入，但透過經營業績。

But increasingly through the operating performance, and of course, we are going to squeeze out everything that we can on the inventory and the width level, but since we are at the level of 3.5 in terms of turns, there is still somewhat to go, but where you do your math, for 2004 and 2005 based on the expectations, then cash-flow will come from earnings.

但透過經營業績，我們當然會擠出一切可能的空間來減少庫存和寬度，但由於我們的周轉率目前為 3.5，因此還有一段距離，但根據 2004 年和 2005 年的預期，你的計算結果表明，現金流將來自收益。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。 非常感謝。

The next question is from Mr. Gaudwa. Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自 Gaudwa 先生。 請繼續。

Yes, hi there. I think, during a press conference, Doug, you made comments that actually, you saw interest from customers billing up in recent weeks. Could you give us a bit more color in terms of where it is coming from, by either end market region or whether it's broad based? Thank you.

是的，你好。 道格，我認為在新聞發布會上您曾表示，實際上，您看到最近幾週客戶對帳單的興趣。 您能否向我們詳細介紹一下它的來源，無論是按終端市場區域還是廣泛基礎？謝謝。

As you would expect, these are the big traditional ones, but also, going to our Sales Manager, Dave Chavoustie, VP, last week, actually, he was here for a couple of days, and he's now seeing some of the smaller customers, the smaller IDMs, coming back to life, these guys mainly by one or two each, but there's a lot of them. So it's kind of, as we said earlier, it's a broadening of the customer base, so when I say it's continuing to eke up from the demand point of view, we're getting pressure to ship earlier for the customers we've committed to already, to try and bring our schedules in, and we're getting now, a high level of interest from customers who, frankly, have not bought a system for probably three years, because they haven't needed to, coming back and saying, if we want one or two 200s later this year, and the next year, what's possible, etcetera.

正如您所料，這些都是大型傳統客戶，但實際上，上週我們的銷售經理、副總裁 Dave Chavoustie 來這裡待了幾天，他現在看到一些較小的客戶、較小的 IDM 正在恢復生機，這些客戶主要各有一兩個，但數量很多。 因此，正如我們之前所說，這算是客戶群的擴大，所以當我說從需求的角度繼續維持增長時，我們面臨著為已經承諾的客戶提前發貨的壓力，試圖將我們的計劃納入其中，現在，我們得到了客戶的極大興趣，坦率地說，他們可能已經三年沒有購買過系統了，因為他們不需要，他們回頭問，如果我們想要在兩個或明年購買。

So it's a broad based recovery still, which is good news, and there are still peaks of pressure from the big guys who are, you know, out there, trying to satisfy their customers.

因此，這仍然是一次廣泛的復甦，這是個好消息，而且來自大公司的壓力仍然很大，你知道，他們正在努力滿足客戶的需求。

Thank you.

謝謝。

If there are no additional questions, I would like to start with the US again. Mr. Irani (ph), go ahead, please.

如果沒有其他問題，我想再從美國問題開始。 伊拉尼先生（音），請說。

Yes, thank you. Peter, a question on headcount, if you could give us an update on that, and also, I'm just wondering how you categorize split companies like IBM? Is it a [indiscernible] camp or an IBM camp?

是的，謝謝。 彼得，關於員工人數的問題，您能否向我們提供最新情況，另外，我想知道您如何對 IBM 等分拆公司進行分類？ 它是一個[音頻不清晰]陣營還是IBM陣營？

Well, to add to the last question in the IBM camp.

好吧，補充一下 IBM 陣營的最後一個問題。

Right now, we're still in the IDM mode with them, but it is a description we have occasionally, but right now, they're IBM as we're concerned.

目前，我們仍與他們處於 IDM 模式，但這是我們偶爾會有的描述，但目前，就我們而言，他們是 IBM。

With respect to the manpower, we have 5,000 people. We have got 5,000 people right now. That is, like somebody asked the question, I don't know whether it was now or this morning, we had a target of 4,650. We are still executing - or we have, as a matter of fact, executed the restructuring of everything about the factory and the logistics of our organization. About 20% of our people are in the factory and the logistics organization. The other 80%, the restructuring has actually gone through.

就人力而言，我們有5000人。 我們現在有 5,000 人。 也就是說，就像有人問的那樣，我不知道是現在還是今天早上，我們的目標是 4,650。 我們仍在執行——或者事實上，我們已經執行了有關工廠和組織物流的一切重組。 我們大約有20%的員工在工廠和物流組織。 其餘 80% 的重組實際上已經完成。

With the factory, given the fact that the market has picked up so substantially since then, and we have changed our move rate, that is, the number of system starts per week from four, to five, to six, we have added people in the production area with the vast majority on a contract basis. So I expect that by the end of the year, that we could add another 100 people, but that's probably it.

對於工廠來說，考慮到市場自那時起已經大幅回暖，我們已經改變了移動率，即每週系統啟動次數從四次增加到五次、六次，我們在生產區域增加了人員，其中絕大多數是合約工。 因此我預計到今年年底，我們可以再增加 100 人，但很可能就是這樣。

And there to repeat, Peter, they are flexible people in that they're on contracts, and therefore we can take action where necessary much more quickly.

彼得，我要重申一下，他們很靈活，因為他們簽訂了合同，因此我們可以在必要時更快地採取行動。

Okay, and of the 5,000, how does the breakdown between your US operations where you're doing the sub-assembly work now internally for the TWINSCAN platforms and your European operations?

好的，那麼在這 5,000 個中，你們在美國的運作（目前在內部為 TWINSCAN 平台進行子組裝工作）和歐洲的運作之間的分佈如何？

Yes, we have 2,800 people, roughly, in Europe, and 1,600 in the US, and 600 in Asia.

是的，我們在歐洲大約有 2,800 名員工，在美國有 1,600 名員工，在亞洲有 600 名員工。

And of the 1,600 in the US, how many of those are presently in manufacturing?

那麼，在美國的 1,600 家企業中，目前有多少家從事製造業？

It is about 500.

大約有500個。

400 to 500, I guess, for the modules you mentioned, in that order.

我猜，對於您提到的模組，按順序來說，是 400 到 500。

Yes, between 450 and 500, yes.

是的，在 450 到 500 之間。

Are you exploring, at this point, for [indiscernible] platforms a move to module assembly in Asia? This is obviously a very popular theme among many of your equipment peers, and in terms of seeking low cost supply and also some more flexible labor markets. When could we expect ASM Lithography taking steps towards Asia?

目前，您是否正在探索將 [音訊不清晰] 平台轉移到亞洲進行模組組裝？ 顯然，這是許多設備同行中非常受歡迎的主題，並且在尋求低成本供應和更靈活的勞動力市場方面。 我們何時可以期待 ASM 光刻技術邁向亞洲？

What we are effectively doing is what you see in our supply chain. We don't have a one tier supply chain. We have a two, three or sometimes even four-tier supply chain, and that is because the goods reductions came through cost reductions we forced upon our suppliers that actually went for their suppliers to Asia, to Eastern Europe, for instance. So that has already happened. We are constantly looking into the suppliers that can deliver us the right technology, at the right cost, at the right time, but although you might feel it's not visible right now, many of what you just described did actually happen in the second and the third tier in this supply chain, and that drove to lower the costs of goods reduction.

我們正在有效做的事情就是您在我們的供應鏈中看到的。 我們沒有單層供應鏈。 我們擁有兩級、三級甚至四級的供應鏈，這是因為我們強加給供應商的成本削減導致了商品數量的減少，而這些成本實際上是流向了他們的供應商，例如亞洲、東歐的供應商。 這已經發生了。 我們一直在尋找能夠在合適的時間以合適的成本為我們提供合適技術的供應商，儘管您可能覺得現在還看不到，但您剛才描述的許多情況確實發生在該供應鏈的第二層和第三層，這推動了商品成本的降低。

Great. No, on a very different topic, I know you discussed the SG&A at length in terms of expansion, some of the investments you have to make in Japan. I'm wondering if you could talk similarly about R&D. You do have some programs in LCD. It's a big market, but at the same time, your Semiconductor platforms are hitting a degree of maturity in terms of the bulk of the investments, and we now have a pretty good idea of the technology road-map with Immersion. Would it be fair to assume that you could hold the R&D line flat, even with the top-line expansions for 2005?

偉大的。 不，在一個非常不同的主題上，我知道您在擴張方面詳細討論了銷售、一般和行政費用，以及您必須在日本進行的一些投資。 我想知道您是否可以類似地談論研發。 您的 LCD 中確實有一些程式。 這是一個巨大的市場，但同時，你們的半導體平台在大部分投資方面已經達到了一定程度的成熟，我們現在對 Immersion 的技術路線圖有了相當好的了解。 即使 2005 年營收有所擴張，您是否可以假設研發線可以保持穩定？

Well, first of all, it's a good question. R&D will increase. It will increase inflationary, and we do have still, some major programs to finish off. We've got the hyper-NA lens to install. That's for tools and equipment, which was the [L Power] 1700. We have an UV to, well not finish off, but to continue, and bring to a conclusion over the next three or four or five years. We have other innovative ideas for existing products, so don't underestimate R&D spend.

嗯，首先，這是一個好問題。 研發將會增加。 這將加劇通貨膨脹，而且我們還有一些重大計畫需要完成。 我們要安裝超數值孔徑鏡頭。 這是用於工具和設備的，即 [L Power] 1700。我們有一個 UV，雖然還沒有完成，但會繼續下去，並在未來三到五年內得出結論。 我們對現有產品還有其他創新想法，所以不要低估研發支出。

So for new things like LCD, I think you must expect, at that point, we will come to you with a release that says, we're going to enter this market, or not, and if we do, these are the indications. So I'll take LCD out of this discussion, because as, Peter said earlier, we're not yet in a decision making mode. I will say to you that this year, there's a little bit of expenditure on LCD from an evaluation process, just to evaluate whether the techniques work or not, and it's already contained in our R&D budget.

因此，對於像 LCD 這樣的新事物，我想你必須預料到，到那時，我們會向你發布一份新聞稿，說明我們是否要進入這個市場，如果我們這樣做，這些就是跡象。 因此，我將把 LCD 排除在討論之外，因為正如 Peter 之前所說，我們尚未進入決策模式。 我要告訴你們，今年我們在 LCD 方面的支出有一點點來自評估過程，只是為了評估這些技術是否有效，這已經包含在我們的研發預算中。

And I would like to confirm, and you already alluded to that, the fact that Immersion is on the road-map now. That does have an impact on our ability to contain the Research and Development spend. I mean, Doug was talking about single digit growth, and I think that is what you could expect in 2005 for all the operational expenses in R&D and SG&A, and it is not going to be 9.8% single digit, by the way, so we are containing those costs, and it is true, too, that the choices that have been made on the technology road-map are helping us in containing those costs. Yes, there is an amount, which is in the incubation group for LCD spending this year already in R&D.

我想確認一下，正如您已經提到的，Immersion 現在已經在路線圖上了。 這確實對我們控制研發支出的能力產生了影響。 我的意思是，Doug 談到了個位數成長，我認為這就是 2005 年研發和銷售、一般及行政費用等所有營運費用的預期，而且不會是 9.8% 的個位數成長，順便說一句，所以我們在控制這些成本，而且，技術路線圖上做出的選擇也在幫助我們控制這些成本。 是的，有一定金額，這是孵化組今年的液晶支出已經投入研發。

Okay, and one final, technical question - we've had two years of calcium fluoride lenses down in the field, and you know, with a varying mix depending on yourselves or the Japanese OEMs. With the number of exposures going through these lenses, we get some of the darkening, or the reduction in the useful life. Are you seeing some of your early customers now come back for service replacement of lens units in your earlier platforms, and is that an opportunity to grow your service revenues in the next year ahead? Thank you.

好的，最後一個技術問題——我們已經在該領域使用了兩年的氟化鈣鏡片，而且，根據你們自己或日本的原始設備製造商的不同，其混合比例也有所不同。 隨著這些鏡頭的曝光次數增加，我們會發現鏡頭會變暗，或是使用壽命會縮短。 您是否發現一些早期客戶現在回來更換您早期平台中的鏡頭單元，這是否是您在明年增加服務收入的機會？ 謝謝。

The answer is no, no we don't see a lot of our units coming back. We should explain that although the 157 program was wholly calcium fluoride, even the advanced 193 program uses only relatively small amounts of calcium fluoride, and therefore, we haven't yet seen, and I hope we never will, serious degradation that warrants lens swaps and lens changes. So the answer is no to your question, and therefore we won't see increased service revenues because [indiscernible].

答案是否定的，我們沒有看到很多部隊回來。 我們應該解釋一下，雖然 157 計劃完全是氟化鈣，但即使是先進的 193 計劃也只使用相對少量的氟化鈣，因此，我們還沒有看到，我希望我們永遠不會看到需要更換鏡片和更換鏡片的嚴重退化。 所以你的問題的答案是否定的，因此我們不會看到服務收入的增加，因為[音頻不清晰]。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

I have a new question from Mr. Foonagogh (ph). Go ahead, please.

我有一個來自 Foonagogh 先生（音）的新問題。 請繼續。

Oh, thanks. What kind of bottlenecks are you experiencing with your suppliers, and what is the assembly, or cycle time, in average for TWINSCAN in your targets?

噢，謝謝。 您的供應商遇到了哪些瓶頸？您的目標中 TWINSCAN 的平均組裝時間或週期時間是多少？

I come at this on a different way. I mean, we have a bottleneck today here, and there, and everywhere. Don't we all? We've told you what we've shipped. We've told you what the backlog is, that we're going to ship, and therefore, what we're going to ship reflects what we can do. It's what the customers want. It's what we can do, so the bottlenecks that exist, today, it might be a cable, tomorrow it might a screw. I don't think that it's an issue that we want to go into with you guys, because it's all over the place, so there are no structural issues there. So just be content in the fact that we give you upfront information. We can ship those products, as indicated, and that's where it's going to be.

我以不同的方式看待這個問題。 我的意思是，今天我們到處都遇到了瓶頸。 我們不都是這樣嗎？ 我們已經告訴您我們運送了什麼。 我們已經告訴您積壓的貨物是什麼、我們將要運送什麼，因此，我們將要運送的貨物反映了我們能做什麼。 這正是顧客想要的。 這是我們能做的，所以存在的瓶頸，今天可能是一條電纜，明天可能是一顆螺絲。 我不認為這是我們想與你們討論的問題，因為它無所不在，所以不存在任何結構性問題。 因此，只要我們向您提供預先的信息，您就應該感到滿意。 我們可以按照指示運送這些產品，而且它們會到達那裡。

Right, thanks, and the assembly time?

好的，謝謝，那麼集合時間是什麼時候呢？

The assembly time, depends what it is we're assembling, you could take our assembly time from all the peach parts available to making, say, a TWINSCAN -

組裝時間取決於我們要組裝什麼，你可以把組裝時間從所有可用的桃子零件中拿出來，比如說，一個 TWINSCAN -

We're down to, I guess, about ten weeks right now.

我估計現在我們已經有十週左右的時間了。

Howard's saying the time, and Peter is saying yes, so yes, it's probably eight or nine weeks. By the way, when I first joined ASML, that was the assembly time for the 200 millimeter, single scan products, so it just shows how we've made progress with TWINSCAN. But if you include the assembly time, including all the supply base along these items before it, and it goes up, obviously to, it can be six months, it can be nine months, depending on the product type.

霍華德說了時間，彼得說是的，所以是的，大概是八到九週。 順便說一句，當我第一次加入 ASML 時，那是 200 毫米單掃描產品的組裝時間，所以它只是展示了我們在 TWINSCAN 方面的進展。但如果把組裝時間也算上，包括之前這些項目的所有供應基地，時間顯然會增加，可能是六個月，也可能是九個月，這取決於產品類型。

So there's no easy answer to your question there. Internally, it's eight to ten weeks for an advanced product, with a total stack fleet time which can be six, nine, and occasionally twelve months if it's a really advanced product. But the thing is, the customers know that, and therefore, they give us orders accordingly.

所以你的問題沒有簡單的答案。 從內部來看，一款先進產品的開發時間為八到十週，如果是真正先進的產品，整個堆疊開發時間則可能為六個月、九個月，有時甚至十二個月。 但事實是，客戶知道這一點，因此，他們會向我們下訂單。

Right, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

The next question, a new question from the US, Mr. Flannery (ph). Go ahead, please.

下一個問題是來自美國的弗蘭納裡先生（音）提出的。請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon, congratulations on a good quarter. Basically I have a two-part question. What are the ARF unit numbers that are coming in, as a percentage of your total units, or your new units for 2004 and how that would look for 2005, and similarly, on the Immersion units for 2004 and 2005? Thank you.

是的，下午好，恭喜您本季取得良好業績。 基本上我的問題分為兩個部分。 2004 年新增的 ARF 單位數量佔總單位數的百分比是多少？ 2005 年新增單位數量是多少？同樣，2004 年和 2005 年 Immersion 單位數量又如何？ 謝謝。

So 193 ARF, as you referred to it, in our backlog by value is 39%, if that helps you, and it's [writtening], it's getting, if you like, thicker on 193. What was the second part of your question? Oh, Immersion, sorry, Immersion yes.

因此，正如您所提到的，193 ARF 在我們的積壓訂單中按價值計算佔 39%，如果這對您有幫助的話，並且它是 [書面的]，如果您願意的話，193 會變得更厚。您的問題的第二部分是什麼？ 哦，沉浸式，對不起，沉浸式是的。

Immersion is high on price, but low in percentage of the total, yet it's a new technology. You know, the first Immersion tool hasn't yet shipped. We will ship it, in September of this year to TSMC, which are a well-known [indiscernible]. Therefore, you know, it's early days. Customers have to take one or two, get used to it, understand how to use it, in their FAB, with their [indiscernible], in their process, and I think Immersion should not figure strongly into any unit shipment kind of factor. It won't change our lifestyle on unit shipments this year, or probably next. It's important from a dollar point of view. It's a high price item, $20m-ish, is the Immersion price so far. It becomes significant, I think, in the year 2006.

沉浸式技術價格較高，但佔比較低，而且它還是一項新技術。 您知道，第一個 Immersion 工具尚未發貨。 我們將於今年 9 月將其發貨給台積電，台積電是一家著名的[音頻不清晰]。 因此，你知道，現在還為時過早。 客戶必須採用一兩種方法，習慣它，理解如何在他們的 FAB 中、在他們的 [音頻不清晰] 中、在他們的流程中使用它，我認為沉浸式設計不應該在任何單位出貨量因素中佔據重要地位。 它不會改變我們今年或明年的單位出貨量生活方式。 從美元的角度來看這很重要。 這是一件高價商品，2000 萬美元左右，這是 Immersion 迄今為止的價格。 我認為，它在 2006 年變得重要起來。

I think on ARF - I mean, what's the talk in 2005, and will the units be 30% plus, of your -

我認為在 ARF 上 - 我的意思是，2005 年的討論是什麼，單位會佔你的 30% 以上 -

Well, it's 40% of our order book, so you can extrapolate 40%, to reflect that.

嗯，這是我們訂單的 40%，所以你可以推斷 40%，以反映這一點。

In value.

在價值上。

Value? Oh, he said units. I'm sorry. Yes. So it could become 50% of the value, and it could therefore, become 30% of units. That's a wild guess, okay, it's speculation. If I can just calibrate it for you, does that help?

價值？ 哦，他說的是單位。 對不起。 是的。 因此它可能成為價值的 50%，因此也可能成為單位的 30%。 這是一個大膽的猜測，好吧，這只是推測。 如果我可以幫您校準它，有幫助嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next additional question is from Mr. Gill. Go ahead, please.

下一個附加問題來自吉爾先生。 請繼續。

Yes, I have an accounting question for Peter. I was wondering, could you give us a little guidance in the share count, the upgraded share count this quarter, assuming conversion of the 2010 notes. Was there an add-back of interest expense in the quarter, and what should we be looking for, going forward, as a result of that?

是的，我有一個會計問題想問彼得。 我想知道，假設轉換 2010 年票據，您能否為我們提供一些有關股票數量、本季升級股票數量的指導。 本季是否有利息費用的增加？因此，我們未來該尋找什麼？

Yes, in calculating the diluted number of shares, there is an add-back of the interest cost, and the interest cost add-back was - I will need to look at that - it was about €3m a quarter.

是的，在計算稀釋股數時，需要加回利息成本，而利息成本加回是 - 我需要看一下 - 大約是每季 300 萬歐元。

Okay, and that's the run-rate going forward?

好的，這就是未來的運行率嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And would you happen to have, at your fingertips, what the trigger point in net income would be for the 2006 convertible, to be taken into the diluted share count.

您是否知道，2006 年可轉換債券的淨收入觸發點是多少，以計入稀釋股數？

Not at my fingertips. I will need to have a look at that.

不在我的指尖。 我需要看一下那個。

Is it a substantial degree above where we are now?

它是否比我們現在的水平高很多？

Oh, no, it isn't. I'll make a note of that, and I'll get back to you.

噢，不，不是這樣的。 我會記下來並回覆您。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

By the way, you win the prize. We were betting that no one would ask a question about the anti-diluted nature of that, because it's too complicated a question, too complicated an answer. You've fooled - you've won the prize!

順便說一句，你贏得了獎品。 我們打賭沒有人會問有關反稀釋性質的問題，因為這個問題太複雜了，答案太複雜了。 您成功了—您贏得了獎品！

Any word on what I get here?

有什麼消息可以告訴我在這裡得到什麼嗎？

Yes, you get to answer a question next time, in three months time, an extra free question in three months time!

是的，下次可以回答一個問題，三個月後，三個月後可以額外免費回答一個問題！

So I get two next time? Oh, very exciting!

那麼下次我買兩個嗎？ 噢，非常令人興奮！

The next question is from Mr. Phil Griffin. Go ahead, please.

下一個問題來自菲爾·格里芬先生。 請繼續。

Last question, please.

請問最後一個問題。

Yes, hello. Going back on your best guess on Slide 5 of what the market could be in 2004, and I'm sure you've also looked at what your competitors are guiding, and if I add all the guidance together, I end up with 30 more [tools] than what's on the Slide 5. So roughly, 585, 580. What would be the mix match between this assumption and the means, showing together all the guidances?

是的，你好。 回到投影片 5 中您對 2004 年市場狀況的最佳猜測，我相信您也已經看過競爭對手的指導意見，如果我將所有指導意見加在一起，我最終會得到比幻燈片 5 上多 30 個 [工具]。所以大致是 585,580。這個假設和平均值之間的混合匹配會是什麼，將所有指導意見放在一起？

It could be [indiscernible]. We just took the Dataquest number. We tested it ourselves, to be honest with you, and we felt it was about right, but you know, the more we modify third party independent data, the more it's suspect, so we try to stay neat and clean on that. It could be new systems, but the 554 is what I believe Dataquest were forecasting. They may have changed that number, by the way, in the recent weeks or days, I don't know. It's a new number is it, sorry? This is current, and it's only new systems, so this could be some aspect of second-hand systems, refurbished tools, and so on. But we don't use the information from any competitors added to ours in this kind of data analysis for you people. We may do it internally, but we like to stay with an objective third party number so that you can see that we're not using the numbers to suit our purpose. We're using published data here.

這可能是[音訊不清晰]。 我們剛剛獲取了 Dataquest 號碼。 老實說，我們自己測試過，我們覺得它差不多是對的，但是你知道，我們修改第三方獨立數據的次數越多，它就越可疑，所以我們盡量保持乾淨。 它可能是新系統，但我相信 Dataquest 預測的是 554。 順便說一句，最近幾週或幾天他們可能已經改變了這個號碼，我不知道。 這是一個新號碼，對不起？ 這是當前的，並且只是新系統，因此這可能是二手系統、翻新工具等的一些方面。 但是我們不會將任何競爭對手的資訊加入我們的資訊中來為你們進行此類數據分析。 我們可能會在內部這樣做，但我們希望保留客觀的第三方數字，以便您可以看到我們不會使用這些數字來達到我們的目的。 我們在這裡使用已發布的數據。

And it's 30 units this, the swing factors definitely, the new systems it's 30 units out of 550, which is 5%, so that's the kind of band width I think that is wanted in the estimates that we give out.

這是 30 個單位，肯定存在波動因素，新系統是 550 個單位中的 30 個，即 5%，所以我認為這就是我們給出的估算中所需要的頻寬。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks. Gentlemen and ladies - I guess there are some. Thank you for your questions. As usual, it was exciting and interesting for us, hopefully for you as well. Thank you for those who took the time to congratulate us. The management team work hard to achieve these results, and we will continue doing so. I look forward to hopefully speaking to you again in three months time. Over and out.

謝謝。先生、女士們——我想是有一些的。 感謝您的提問。 像往常一樣，這對我們來說是令人興奮和有趣的，希望對您來說也是如此。 感謝那些花時間向我們表示祝賀的人。 管理團隊為實現這些成果付出了巨大的努力，我們也將繼續這樣做。 我期待三個月後再次與您交談。 完畢。