艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2002 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Annual Results 2002 Conference Call on the 16th January 2003. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions, If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please the * key, followed by the 0 on your push button phone. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Dunn. Please go ahead sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2003 年 1 月 16 日舉行的 ASML 2002 年度業績電話會議。在今天的錄音演示中，所有參與者都將處於僅收聽模式。演示結束後，將有機會提問，如果任何參與者聽不清楚會議內容，請按按鍵電話上的 * 鍵，然後按 0。現在我想將會議交給道格‧鄧恩先​​生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you Mark. I guess I'm the only guy that is not on a listen-only mode so I will kick off. What I would like to do ladies and gentlemen and good morning, good afternoon and goodnight to you wherever you are in the world. Give a brief introduction, a few words from me and then since we want to limit this one-hour because we have things to do at 6.30 here in Central European time, I will pass it over to you for your no doubt searching questions.

謝謝你，馬克。我想我是唯一一個不處於只聽模式的人，所以我會開始。女士們、先生們，我想向你們說一聲早安、下午好、晚安，無論你們身在何處。請簡單介紹一下，我說幾句話，然後由於我們想將這一小時限制在一小時內，因為我們在中歐時間 6:30 有事要做，所以我會把它交給你們，以便你們毫無疑問地提出問題。

So let me begin then by picking a few of the major points of our annual results. Firstly, I want to touch on a few of the, I think, brighter spots in this rather gloomy high-tech environment that we are in. We at ASML increased our sales by 23% year-on-year in the face of a 20% decline in our sector, the capital equipment sector. So I think that for me re-enforces the message that our product is excellent and our customers like it.

那麼，首先讓我挑選一下我們年度業績的幾個重點。首先，我想談談我認為在我們所處的相當低迷的高科技環境中的一些亮點。在資本設備領域，我們的部門下降了 20%，而 ASML 的銷售額則年增了 23%。所以我認為這對我來說再次強調了我們的產品非常優秀並且我們的客戶喜歡它的訊息。

We, also by moving the mix of products towards the high-tech end, the 193 INN, the 2. INN and TWINSCAN increased our average selling price substantially. It's gone up in fact from 8.1m to 9.1m in the past 12 months. I stress that it is a mix effect and not an affect of our ability to get more money from the customers for the same product. Underlying that mix effect, there is indeed some quite severe price pressure and we are also impacted to some extent by that. And it is at this point a buyer's market as you appreciate. So we are pleased by those two market related instances.

我們也透過將產品組合轉向高科技領域，193 INN、2. INN 和 TWINSCAN 大幅提高了我們的平均售價。事實上，在過去 12 個月中，這一數字已從 810 萬增加到 910 萬。我強調，這是一種混合效應，而不是我們透過相同產品從客戶那裡獲得更多錢的能力的影響。在這種混合效應的背後，確實存在著相當嚴重的價格壓力，我們也在某種程度上受到了影響。正如您所理解的，此時此刻，這是一個買方市場。因此，我們對這兩個與市場相關的例子感到高興。

We have also performed gain market share. The news on this is not fully out because the statistics don't close for another month or two yet, but it is expected by those who forecast these things, they tell me at least, that we will have 50% or greater by value and 40% or greater by unit volume into the semiconductor market of Lithography units. Again, supporting our stance that customers increasingly buy from ASML.

我們也確實獲得了市場佔有率。由於統計數據還要再過一兩個月才會結束，因此這方面的消息尚未完全公佈，但預測這些事情的人至少告訴我，我們預計光刻機在半導體市場的價值將占到 50% 或更多，單位體積將占到 40% 或更多。再次支持我們的立場，即客戶越來越多地從 ASML 購買產品。

And one of the public commitments we made a few months ago was to generate cash from our operations. We have generated a net Euros65m of cash and Peter is with me by the way, Peter Wennink, CFO and he will be able to comment on how that has been put together. The underlying value of that by the way is much greater as you will see as Peter explains that later on. So we are pleased with that performance and there is a lot more to come yet from the ability to squeeze our assets cash wise.

幾個月前我們做出的一項公開承諾就是從我們的營運中創造現金。我們已產生淨現金 6500 萬歐元，順便說一下，財務長 Peter Wennink 也和我在一起，他將能夠評論這些現金是如何產生的。順便說一下，它的潛在價值要大得多，正如彼得稍後將解釋的那樣。因此，我們對這樣的表現感到滿意，我們也將在現金壓縮資產的能力方面取得更大的進步。

We also took some decisions regarding our strategic future. As you know we are taking the rather difficult decision to reduce our employment level to give a reduction in the break-even point of the operation. We do this in the back of the fight. We have had two years of low sales as an industry. And the next six to nine months will not be much better. I don't think. Not much better and therefore we are taking a prudent step. Fortunately the efficiency improvements we have made in the past 12 months allow us to take those reductions in capacity without impacting the major programs. Our major programs R&D and customer support, applications, field service, etc. We can sustain at the present high level satisfaction, even in the face of the reduction in resources applied. So that's good news, that's bringing efficiencies out of the organization.

我們也為我們的戰略未來做出了一些決定。如您所知，我們正在做出一個相當艱難的決定，即減少我們的就業水平，以降低營運的損益平衡點。我們在戰鬥的背後這樣做。我們這個產業的銷售額已經經歷了兩年的低迷。未來六到九個月的情況也不會有太大好轉。我不這麼認為。情況並沒有好轉，因此我們採取了謹慎的措施。幸運的是，我們在過去 12 個月中取得的效率改進使我們能夠減少產能，而不會影響主要項目。我們的主要項目是研發和客戶支援、應用、現場服務等。即使面對所應用的資源減少，我們仍能維持目前高水準的滿意度。這是個好消息，這將提高組織的效率。

We also decided to close down our Track operation. Frankly it was not going to give us the product that we wanted quickly enough. So with a lot of regret we have closed that down. And we also decided to divest of our Thermal operation. That we will do through a sale sometime in the next couple of quarters or thereabouts. We have no precise time in mind. We have two objectives. Sell it into good and safe hands who will look after the installed customer base and allow the group to prosper. It has excellent products and I'm sure in the long-term will do very well indeed. And also to ensure of course that we get a decent price for it. If that takes us four months or eight months, well I'm easy on that.

我們也決定關閉我們的 Track 業務。坦白說，它無法足夠快地為我們提供我們想要的產品。因此我們非常遺憾地關閉了中心。我們也決定剝離熱能業務。我們將在未來幾個季度左右透過出售來實現這一目標。我們心中沒有確切的時間。我們有兩個目標。將其出售給優秀且安全的人員，他們將照顧好現有客戶群並讓集團繁榮發展。它擁有優秀的產品，我相信從長遠來看它確實會做得很好。當然，我們也要確保能得到合理的價格。如果這需要四個月或八個月的時間，那我就不客氣了。

They were the primary actions we took. To recap, gain market share; increase our sales despite the decline in the market; generate cash from ongoing operations with a lot more to come yet; divest of our thermal operations; it's non core and non strategic for us; close down our Track operation and reduce our break-even point by taking all kinds of costs out of our cost base, including unfortunately people costs. That kind of summarizes the management actions for the past 12 months.

這是我們採取的主要行動。總結一下，獲得市場份額；在市場下滑的情況下仍增加銷售額；從正在進行的運營中產生現金，並且未來還會有更多現金產生；剝離我們的熱力業務；對於我們來說，它不是核心也不是戰略性的；關閉我們的軌道運營，並通過從我們的成本基礎中剔除各種成本（包括人力成本）來降低我們的盈虧平衡點。這總結了過去 12 個月的管理行動。

The numbers you will be aware of and speak for themselves. I will not go through those with you. Let me just make a quick comment on the industry as I view it right now and then I will pass over to you for questions. But so far as the sector is concerned, the semiconductor sector, it is going through I think a very gradual renaissance. If you look at the underlying sales growth quarter-on-quarter, it's positive. I think by the way this quarter, Q1 of 2003 will show a slightly negative dip. It's a seasonal industry and probably will dip slightly this quarter. But underlying that, there does seem to be a gradual improvement in the sales ability of semiconductors. So that is positive news. It gives, I think, good indication that the worst is now behind us. Although I am the last person to claim any false dawn here. It's going to be a very, very patchy six, nine, twelve months ahead of the industry, whilst it recovers from the two dark years behind us.

您將了解這些數字，它們不言自明。我不會和你一起經歷這些。讓我對我現在對這個行業的看法做一個簡短的評論，然後我會回答你們的問題。但就半導體產業而言，我認為它正在經歷一個非常緩慢的復興過程。如果你看一下季度環比基本銷售額的成長，你會發現它是正面的。我認為，2003 年第一季將出現略微的下降。這是一個季節性行業，本季可能會略有下滑。但在此背後，半導體的銷售能力似乎確實在逐漸提高。這是個好消息。我認為這很好地表明最糟糕的時期已經過去。儘管我絕對不會承認這裡有任何虛假的曙光。在產業從過去兩年的黑暗中復甦的過程中，未來六、九、十二個月將會非常不穩定。

The average selling price rise has been coming down quite substantially for the past 18 months, even more actually. And therefore although the sales have been flat, the unit volume of course has been increasing. And that for us is good because basically we sell based on their volume of sales in units not dollars. And if you look at the unit sales of integrated circuits and discrete components, it is approaching the levels of 2000 and therefore the time will come for us to kind of try and guess when, but the time will come when that capacity is saturated and they start to place ever increasing quantities of orders. We haven't yet triggered that threshold and I don't know when the trigger point will be reached in time. I know in percentage of utilization but not in time. And therefore we wait patiently for that, doing the things that we do best, getting market share; convincing customers to use us; expanding our customer base; generating cash and taking our cost base down.

過去 18 個月，平均售價漲幅大幅下降，甚至下降幅度更大。因此，儘管銷售額持平，但單位數當然一直在增加。這對我們來說是件好事，因為我們基本上是根據銷售量（單位而不是美元）來銷售的。如果你看一下積體電路和分立元件的單位銷售量，它正接近 2000 的水平，因此，我們需要嘗試猜測什麼時候會出現這種情況，但什麼時候產能飽和，他們就會開始下越來越多的訂單。我們還沒有觸發那個閾值，我不知道什麼時候才能及時達到觸發點。我知道利用率的百分比，但不知道時間。因此，我們耐心等待，做我們最擅長的事情，獲得市場份額；說服客戶使用我們的產品；擴大我們的客戶群；產生現金並降低成本基礎。

One last point now on geographic markets. We have moved from one to two Japanese customers. The second one is secret unless you know something. I don't actually know who it is. And we have also established a strong presence now in China. We have sold in the past 12 months over 30 systems into China. Some of those fairly leading edge and some of them secondhand. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that China is rapidly becoming a very important market for this industry and we are determined to play our full role in that large continent. And at that, I think I will rest my initial introduction and pass back to Mark, our operator and controller so he can begin the question and answer process.

最後一點是關於地理市場。我們的日本客戶從一個增加到了兩個。第二個是秘密，除非你知道一些事情。我實際上不知道他是誰。我們目前也已在中國建立了強大的影響力。在過去的 12 個月中，我們已向中國銷售了 30 多個系統。其中一些是相當前沿的，還有一些是二手的。儘管如此，毫無疑問，中國正在迅速成為該行業非常重要的市場，我們決心在這個大陸充分發揮我們的作用。至此，我想我將結束我最初的介紹，並將內容交還給我們的操作員和控制員馬克，以便他可以開始問答過程。

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen at this time we will begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press * followed by 1 on your push button phone. If you wish to cancel your request, please press * followed by 2. Your questions will be answered in the order they are received. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections. One moment please for the first question. Your first question comes from Mr John Danju(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，現在我們將開始問答環節。如果您有疑問，請在按鍵電話上按 * 然後按 1。如果您想取消請求，請按 * 然後按 2。您的問題將按照收到的順序得到答覆。如果您今天正在使用揚聲器設備，請在做出選擇之前拿起聽筒。請稍等片刻回答第一個問題。您的第一個問題來自 John Danju 先生（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Hi, this is John Donju(ph) from CSAB. Good afternoon. I had a quick question on gross margins for the first half of 2003. If I remember well the level in the second half on gross margin Lithography was around 27% excluding the one-off charge. And you are committed obviously to improve that margin given the restructuring taking place at the moment in Lithography. Is it fair to say that you could improve sequentially this gross margin even though volumes at the start of the year could be lower for the first half of 2003 compared to the second half of 2002?

大家好，我是 CSAB 的 John Donju（音譯）。午安.我有一個關於 2003 年上半年毛利率的快速問題。如果我沒記錯的話，下半年光刻業務的毛利率約為 27%（不包括一次性費用）。鑑於目前正在進行的光刻重組，您顯然致力於提高利潤率。儘管 2003 年上半年的年初銷量可能低於 2002 年下半年，但你們的毛利率能否持續提高？

John, you just mentioned the 27% but that includes the technical development credit repayments that we booked because of the TWINSCAN shipments in 2002, which were significant especially in the second half of the year. That accounted for another 2 1/2%* of gross margin. So that repayment will go away in 2003 and it will stop in the first half. So that will give a sequential improvement of the gross margin when we stop that of 2.5%, bringing it up to using your 27%, anywhere between 29% and 30%.

約翰，您剛才提到了 27%，但其中包括我們因 2002 年 TWINSCAN 發貨而預定的技術開發信貸償還款，這筆款項在下半年尤為重要。這又佔了毛利率的 2.5%*。因此，還款將於 2003 年取消，並將在上半年停止。因此，當我們停止 2.5% 的毛利率時，毛利率將持續提高，達到 27%，即 29% 到 30% 之間。

Given the fact that in 2002, the TWINSCAN part of sales was significant, but also included TWINSCANs that we shipped in the early stages of their life where they were at the bottom of the learning curve, you could expect a sequential growth of the gross margin because TWINSCAN will enter a period whereby those margins will improve due to learning curve efficiencies. So you could start off with the gross margins in the second half of this year taking away the [indecipherable] case and the one-time provision and it will be around the 29% level and then building up gradually sequentially over the year 2003. So it will be over 30% for the total year.

考慮到 2002 年 TWINSCAN 的銷售額佔比很大，但也包括了我們在其生命週期早期（即學習曲線底部）發貨的 TWINSCAN，您可以預期毛利率會連續增長，因為 TWINSCAN 將進入一個利潤率會因學習曲線效率而提高的時期。因此，您可以從今年下半年的毛利率開始計算，扣除[難以辨認的]情況和一次性撥備後，毛利率將在 29% 左右，然後在 2003 年全年逐漸上升。因此，全年毛利率將超過 30%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Miss Kirsten Parker. Please state your company name followed by your question. Thank you, Miss Parker, please go ahead.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Kirsten Parker 女士。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。謝謝您，帕克小姐，請繼續。

Hello can you hear me?

你好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Oh, sorry about that. It's Kirsten Parker from Morgan Stanley. So just the first question, what was the accounts payable number for the second half of 2002? And when you mentioned during the analyst presentation, the service revenue numbers of about Euros300m. Did that include the service revenues associated with the Thermal and Track business? And then I have a follow-on question.

噢，很抱歉。我是摩根士丹利的 Kirsten Parker。那麼第一個問題是，2002 年下半年的應付帳款金額是多少？正如您在分析師演示中提到的，服務收入約為 3 億歐元。這是否包括與熱能和軌道業務相關的服務收入？然後我有一個後續問題。

The accounts payable number as part of the current liabilities at the end of the year in Euros was Euros213m.

作為年末流動負債一部分的應付帳款金額（以歐元計）為 2.13 億歐元。

Okay. And then the service revenues of Euros300m approximately, does that include any for Track and Thermal?

好的。那麼服務收入約為 3 億歐元，其中包括軌道和熱能服務的收入嗎？

No.

不。

It's just Lithography.

這只是光刻技術。

Just Litho, great. And just on the follow-on question. In terms of your ASP expectations for the next 12 months, could you just discuss that a little bit further given that they have sort of increased from Euros8.9m to Euros9.1m. Do you expect them to continue to accelerate or improve quite so well over the next 12 months?

只是平版印刷，很棒。這只是關於後續問題。關於您對未來 12 個月的平均銷售價格預期，鑑於其已從 890 萬歐元增長至 910 萬歐元，您能否進一步討論一下。您是否預計它們在未來 12 個月內會繼續加速或大幅改善？

Kirsten if you look back in history for 18 months and you will understand why that ASP has gone up, I know you know that. And we introduced TWINSCAN which had a dramatic increase on ASP because of the complexity of the product and the job it does. We also introduced simultaneously the High NA248 and the High NA193 lenses, which clearly because of their excellent performance commanded a higher price. I think therefore the very rapid ASP increase we have seen in the past year and a half has got a logical reason behind it but will not continue with that repidity. There will be new products for sure, like the 1200B when it comes out and the Microscan 7, but they will not alone be sufficient to maintain such a dramatic increase in average selling price in such a short space of time.

克斯汀，如果你回顧過去 18 個月的歷史，你就會明白為什麼 ASP 會上漲，我知道你知道這一點。我們推出了 TWINSCAN，由於產品的複雜性及其所完成的工作，其平均銷售價格大幅上漲。我們也同時推出了High NA248和High NA193鏡頭，顯然由於其出色的性能而具有更高的價格。因此，我認為，過去一年半我們看到的平均售價快速上漲，這背後有其合理的原因，但這種快速上漲不會持續下去。肯定會有新產品推出，例如即將推出的 1200B 和 Microscan 7，但僅憑這些產品不足以在如此短的時間內維持平均售價如此大幅的成長。

So as you will expect with ASML, our products get more exotic and more capable and more expensive, but we have gone through if you like 18 months of real drive to bring out a brand new platform and that carried with it a higher ASP and you saw a steep angle of increase. That steep angle will not continue. So yes, if you strip away the underlying capacity business, which today isn't there. If you assume that it's not going to be there in the future, which I hope your wrong by the way there, but then ASP will increase more gently. What is likely to happen at some point of course is we will trigger the threshold for capacity expansion and we will get a load of orders for ordinary 200mm product and then you will find ASP probably coming down because of the mix issue.

因此，正如您對 ASML 的期望一樣，我們的產品變得更加獨特、功能更加強大且價格更高，但我們已經經歷了 18 個月的真正努力，推出了一個全新的平台，並帶來了更高的 ASP，並且您看到了急劇的增長角度。那個陡峭的角度不會繼續下去。是的，如果你剝離底層容量業務，那麼今天它就不存在了。如果您認為將來它不會再存在，順便說一句，我希望您錯了，但 ASP 將會更緩慢地成長。當然，在某個時候可能會發生的是，我們將觸發產能擴張的門檻，我們將獲得大量普通 200 毫米產品的訂單，然後你會發現 ASP 可能會因為混合問題而下降。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thanks Kirsten.

謝謝 Kirsten。

Your next question comes from Mr Nicholas Goddard. Please go ahead sir.

您的下一個問題來自尼古拉斯·戈達德先生。先生，請繼續。

Yes, hi. I've got two questions. The first one is relative to the cash flow and it's probably for Peter. If you look at the July to December period, there was about Euros 47.5m positive coming in from over investing activities. I just wanted to know what this is referring to mainly. And then I have a follow-up question.

是的，你好。我有兩個問題。第一個與現金流有關，可能適合彼得。如果你看一下 7 月至 12 月期間的情況，你會發現過度投資活動帶來的正收益約為 4750 萬歐元。我只是想知道這主要指的是什麼。然後我有一個後續問題。

Yes, okay. That has to do with the fact that we have taken out of our equipment line, which is part of the fixed asset lines those tools that we consider tools ready to be sold. So those were taken out and went to the inventory balance, where they were either there or they were part of the sale for the second half of the year. So when you look at your movement in your property plant and equipment line, you have of course your regular investments and what we have taken out are those tools that we have identified to be sold and they went to inventory.

是的，好的。這是因為我們已經從設備線（屬於固定資產線的一部分）中取出了那些我們認為可以出售的工具。因此，這些都被取出並進入庫存餘額，它們要么在那裡，要么是下半年銷售的一部分。因此，當您查看您的財產、廠房和設備線的變動時，您當然有您的常規投資，而我們取出的是那些我們已確定要出售並進入庫存的工具。

Okay, thanks very much. My second question relates to the backlog. Could you try to quantify how much of the backlog was impacted by cancellations and orders you may have excluded from your backlog. And also within that portion, grossly speaking, how much of that would be soft orders? And within that very specifically, if we look at the push out which materialized in August/September from Taiwan, are all of the orders remaining in the backlog as of December considered as soft and were therefore excluded off the backlog number you reported.

好的，非常感謝。我的第二個問題與積壓有關。您能否嘗試量化有多少積壓訂單受到了取消訂單和您可能已排除在積壓訂單之外的訂單的影響。另外，從總體上看，在這部分中有多少是軟訂單？具體來說，如果我們看一下 8 月/9 月台灣的延期情況，截至 12 月積壓的所有訂單是否都被視為軟訂單，因此被排除在您報告的積壓訂單數量之外。

The backlog we reported 103 systems for Euros 1.1b is a 12-month backlog. And it is as far as we can tell a healthy backlog. Indeed there are some orders which we have received in the past six months or so, which for various reasons, let's not go into those reasons, we would consider as soft backlog and we have not reported those to you. Now, it's clean as far as we can make it and therefore represents an honest commitment from customers and an honest commitment from us to satisfy that order.

我們報告的積壓訂單為 103 個系統，價值 11 億歐元，這是一個 12 個月的積壓訂單。據我們所知，這是一個健康的積壓情況。確實，我們在過去六個月左右收到了一些訂單，由於各種原因，我們不想深入探討這些原因，我們將其視為軟積壓，我們還沒有向您報告。現在，我們已盡力將其清理乾淨，因此代表了客戶的誠實承諾以及我們滿足該訂單的誠實承諾。

Now, there are no guarantees in this world. No guarantees that existing orders may not also be cancelled. And no guarantees, by the way that we won't get a lot more orders, in fact we will. So you see backlog at the moment in time and we clearly will continue taking orders and we will ship, I believe, far more than that current backlog holds in store for us. But to answer your question, it's as good as we can get it without knowing every intimate detail of our customer. So we have taken out the ones that we consider or that a customer has advised us to consider as soft.

現在，這個世界上沒有任何保證。不保證現有訂單不會被取消。順便說一句，我們無法保證不會收到更多訂單，但事實上我們會的。因此，您會看到目前積壓的訂單，我們顯然會繼續接受訂單，而且我相信，我們發貨的數量將遠遠超過目前積壓的訂單。但要回答你的問題，我們最好是在不了解客戶的每個細節的情況下獲得這些資訊。因此，我們刪除了我們認為是軟的或客戶建議我們認為是軟的。

Okay. Maybe another way to ask the question if I may, would be if you look at the additional orders you referred to many times during your last reporting season that you took in in June and July from Taiwan. How much of that has been shipped in the six months that followed?

好的。如果可以的話，也許換一種方式提問，您可以看一下您在上個報告季中多次提到的、6 月和 7 月從台灣收到的額外訂單。在接下來的六個月裡，已經運送了多少？

Well the Taiwan base we received a lot in the timeframe up to June. In the timeframe since June, two things have happened to those. We have shipped some and some have been cancelled. A few, relative few, have been pushed out into next year, but with good intentions from that particular customer. So I think they are solid. And we took also in the second half orders from Korea, in which we have shipped, I don't know, many of them, I would say half, or two thirds round figures. And the balance of those are good orders from a reliable source are on the backlog for the first half of this year. So I think does that kind of answer your question?

嗯，截至六月，我們在台灣基地收到了很多東西。自六月以來，發生了兩件事。我們已經發貨了一些，但也有一些被取消了。少數訂單被推遲到明年，但特定客戶出於良好的意願。所以我認為它們很可靠。我們在下半年還接到了來自韓國的訂單，我們已經發貨了，我不知道其中有多少，我想說是一半或三分之二的整數。其中，來自可靠來源的良好訂單已積壓至今年上半年。那我認為這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes that's perfect Doug, thanks very much.

是的，非常完美，Doug，非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Jim Fontanelli. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Jim Fontanelli 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Jim Fontanelli at Arete Research. I just have a couple of questions. One again on services, I just wanted to clarify. I guess in absolute terms, services was flat half and half. But proportionally in the second half declined quite substantially. I just wanted to check what was sitting behind that, was it services given away to get hardware sales? And if so, what was the gross margin impact? And I'll hit you with the second question after that.

Arete Research 的 Jim Fontanelli。我只是有幾個問題。再次談論服務，我只是想澄清一下。我想從絕對值來看，服務業一半對一半持平。但下半年的比例大幅下降。我只是想檢查一下這背後的原因，是否是為了獲得硬體銷售而免費提供服務？如果是的話，對毛利率有何影響？接下來我會問你第二個問題。

I'm still struggling with your first question, it's a pretty detailed one Jim. But thanks anyway just for giving my colleague such a test.

我仍然在努力理解你的第一個問題，這是一個非常詳細的問題，吉姆。但無論如何，還是要感謝您給我的同事做了這樣的測試。

Yes, you are about right. It's about half and half is in [indecipherable] terms the same number. But service is something that you sign up for the year. So it means that if your sales volume of your system shipment change, then your service revenue does not change. So it's a fixed contract for 12 months and that is why it's not strange that it is half-and-half about the same. The thing that does change in service revenues is the sale of field options. That has no relationship to the number of system sales that you do. So your relative percentage of sales that declines when your sale of your systems will increase.

是的，你說得對。大約有一半，從[無法辨認]的角度來說，是相同的數字。但服務是需要您簽署一年的協議的。所以這意味著如果您的系統出貨量發生變化，那麼您的服務收入就不會改變。所以這是一份為期 12 個月的固定合同，因此一半一半的合約期限大致相同也就不足為奇了。服務收入中真正改變的是現場選擇權的銷售。這與您進行的系統銷售數量無關。因此，當您的系統銷售額增加時，您的相對銷售額百分比就會下降。

Should we then extrapolate sequentially high service revenues for the first half of next year in anticipation of hardware sales for this half, sorry second half of 2002?

那麼，我們是否應該根據明年上半年（對不起，是 2002 年下半年）的硬體銷售情況，推斷服務收入將連續走高？

Your service revenue, there is a single digit growth in your service revenue that we expect for the first half of 2003. It's a gradual growth because your install base grows and your tools come out of the warranty and you sign up service contracts and with that growth to grow with double-digit numbers.

我們預計 2003 年上半年您的服務收入將出現個位數成長。這是一個漸進式增長，因為您的安裝基礎正在增長，您的工具過了保固期，您簽訂了服務合同，隨著這些增長，您的服務收入將出現兩位數的增長。

Okay thanks-

好的，謝謝-

So you have to take the absolute number Jim, not the relative number.

所以你必須取絕對數，吉姆，而不是相對數。

Okay. The second question, you talked early this afternoon about reaching peak margins again.

好的。第二個問題，您今天下午早些時候談到再次達到峰值利潤率。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to clarify the timeframe for that. Do you think it's possible this cycle, whenever this cycle is? And if so, what sort of volumes need to sit around that ability to gain peak operating margins again?

我只是想澄清一下這個時間表。您認為這個循環有可能嗎？無論這個循環何時發生？如果是這樣，那麼需要什麼樣的產量才能再次獲得高峰營業利潤率？

I was talking about this cycle. And I think we should be mixed between 250 and 300.

我正在談論這個循環。我認為我們的人數應該在 250 到 300 之間。

Excellent. Thanks.

出色的。謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Ucha Orgy(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Ucha Orgy 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Right. My name is Ucha Orgy(ph) from JP Morgan. Just a couple of questions for you. The first is, can you quantify the impact of the AT 1200 B2 in the order backlog, because B2 was launched in December and then you had a spike in your backlog in December. How much of that included AT 1200?

正確的。我叫 Ucha Orgy(ph)，來自摩根大通。我只想問您幾個問題。首先，您能否量化 AT 1200 B2 對訂單積壓的影響，因為 B2 是在 12 月推出的，然後 12 月您的積壓訂單激增。其中有多少包括 AT 1200？

Yes well I can fairly happily say, or unhappily say whichever, there is no connection between the spike in the backlog of the orders we booked in December and the announcement and launch of the tools. We do have a small and growing order book for that tool. It's an exotic tool as you can imagine. Only a few customers can take advantage of it in the short term. So the spike in December was not a function of that. The spike in December was several contracts coming to fulfillment for existing products. And I guess the backlog must contain 10%ish, 12% or so of 1200s right now.

是的，我可以相當高興地說，或者不幸地說，無論哪種情況，我們 12 月訂單積壓的激增與這些工具的發布和推出之間沒有任何联系。我們確實有一個針對該工具的小型且不斷增長的訂單簿。正如您所想像的，這是一種奇特的工具。短期內只有少數客戶能夠利用這一點。因此，12 月的飆升並不是因為這個因素造成的。 12 月的激增是由於現有產品的幾份合約即將履行。我猜現在積壓的訂單中肯定有 10% 左右，12% 左右是 1200 件。

Okay.

好的。

It's not insignificant, but it isn't responsible for that spike you saw in December.

這並不是微不足道的，但它並不是造成 12 月出現高峰的原因。

Right, fair point. What was the ASP for that tool? I mean is that something that you are likely to discuss or give us a range of how much that tool will cost?

對，說得對。此工具的 ASP 是多少？我的意思是，您是否願意討論這個問題或告訴我們該工具的價格範圍？

Enter my negotiating hat now and how many do you want to buy and I'll tell you the price? I think the list price is around high teens, maybe Euros 19m ish. But for you we can do one for Euros 20m.

現在就進入我的談判帽，你想買多少，我會告訴你價格？我認為標價在十幾歐元左右，大概是 1900 萬歐元左右。但我們可以為您做一個，價格為 2000 萬歐元。

I wish I could afford it. Just one more question. Post the restructuring, how will your current pricing affect the capacity at the moment. I know before the restructuring you told us it was about 400 units. Given this restructuring, has that affected your effective capacity or not?

我希望我能買得起。還有一個問題。重組後，您目前的定價將如何影響當前的產能。我知道重組前您告訴我們大約有 400 個單位。鑑於這次重組，這是否影響了你們的有效產能？

Our effected capacity is not going to be significantly impacted by the restructuring program. When Peter mentioned earlier a number of 250 units, I think to the previous question, as a level at which we can achieve peak margins. And we can do that. We can do that many a year systems from our installed manufacturing base, factory space, most of the toolings in place and all of it. So there is no limitation there. We have got the resources and capacity. Don't forget in our peak year of 2000, we shipped around 400 systems, just under 400 systems. Although they were less complex than today. So the restructuring is being done through efficiency improvements, not by just taking out the base strength of the organization. So we can do the 250 or the 275 if and when it happens in the next, hopefully quarters, maybe a year or two.

我們的產能不會受到重組計劃的重大影響。當彼得之前提到 250 個單位時，我認為對於前面的問題來說，這是我們可以實現峰值利潤的水平。我們可以做到這一點。我們可以利用我們已安裝的製造基地、工廠空間、大部分現有工具等來實現多年的系統生產。所以那裡沒有限制。我們有資源和能力。別忘了，在我們最輝煌的 2000 年，我們出貨了大約 400 套系統，略低於 400 套。儘管它們不像今天這麼複雜。因此，重組是透過提高效率來實現的，而不是僅僅削弱組織的基礎力量。因此，如果在未來幾個季度，也許在一兩年內，能夠實現 250 或 275 的目標，我們就可以實現。

Right. Thank you very much.

正確的。非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Robert Mair. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自羅伯特·梅爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, Bear Stearns & Co. Could you give us a little update as to break-even and when you are looking-- you talked at the analysts meeting of 160 unit break-even. Is that still your break-even expectation and maybe where and when we can sort of look at getting there? And a couple of other questions. Microscan 7, is that sort of end of life product ramping down as expected? Or is that ramping down faster than previously expected given the weakness in the market? And a third and last question. If you could update us as to where TWINSCAN is in terms of performance and your expectation of throughput on that product?

是的，貝爾斯登公司。您能否向我們介紹一下損益平衡的最新情況，以及您在分析師會議上談到的 160 個單位的損益平衡。這仍然是您的損益平衡預期嗎？也許我們可以在何時何地實現這一目標？還有其他幾個問題。 Microscan 7，這種壽命終止產品的數量是否如預期般減少？或者，鑑於市場疲軟，這一下降速度是否比之前預期的要快？這是第三個也是最後一個問題。您能否向我們介紹一下 TWINSCAN 的效能現況以及您對該產品吞吐量的預期？

Well let me take your easy one. Well the middle one first, the Microscan 7. We haven't ever shipped a Microscan 7. It's a brand new product and therefore is not by any means ramping down, just the opposite, it's ramping up. I think you are confusing the Microscan 5 Robert, which was a product which we ramped down a year and a half ago. So the 7 is a 157 tool. The world hasn't yet seen one. It's leading the pack and we introduced it this year. Now it is fair to say it's a R&D tool and won't sell like hot cakes. First of all very few customers can afford to move into 157 early, like this year, and secondly they will use it for R&D purposes, one or two tools. So we are talking a handful of tools only. But it isn't a ramp down, this is a ramp up of a brand new tool.

好吧，讓我來輕鬆一下。首先是中間的一款，Microscan 7。我們從未出貨過 Microscan 7。它是一款全新的產品，因此絕對不會減少產量，恰恰相反，它正在增加產量。我認為您混淆了 Microscan 5 Robert，這是我們一年半前開始減少生產的產品。所以 7 是 157 個工具。世界上還沒有人見過這樣的事。它是領先的，我們今年推出了它。現在可以公平地說，它是一種研發工具，不會暢銷。首先，很少有客戶能夠像今年一樣提前進入 157，其次，他們會將其用於研發目的，一兩種工具。所以我們談論的只是少數幾種工具。但這並不是一個下降的過程，而是一個全新工具的上升過程。

Secondly, the TWINSCAN performance is excellent. We have increased our mean time to failure. We have increased the overlay capability, the resolution capability. It is now producing in volume on many sites. We have shipped 61 systems in the year that's just finished. 40 of those in the last half. 59% of our backlog is for TWINSCAN product and customers buy them because they work extremely well. So the performance of TWINSCAN is now really beginning to hit the quick pace that we always said it would. And there is a lot more to go yet. We have got years and years worth of development improvements coming out every two or three months and new improvement on various aspects of the system throughout this decade. So it's getting good.

其次，TWINSCAN性能非常出色。我們增加了平均故障時間。我們提高了覆蓋能力和解析度能力。目前它已在許多工廠批量生產。剛剛過去的一年，我們已經交付了 61 套系統。其中 40 個發生在下半年。我們的積壓訂單中有 59% 是 TWINSCAN 產品，客戶購買它們是因為它們的表現非常好。因此，TWINSCAN 的性能現在真正開始達到我們一直宣稱的快速步伐。還有很多事情要做。我們經過多年的發展，每隔兩三個月就會推出新的改進，並且在過去十年中，系統的各個方面都有新的改進。所以一切都越來越好了。

And the first one was a break-even level. That depends on what the mix is and what the price is as you can imagine Robert. But the 160, you guys should not pin a number on this because it's a moving thing. We will transition from around 200 to 160 and we will go via 190 and 180 and 170. And we may come out at 160, 155 or 150. We will decide that as and when appropriate. So just assume that we will get through that number towards the end of this year.

第一個是損益平衡水準。這取決於混合物是什麼以及價格是多少，正如你可以想像的羅伯特。但對於 160，你們不應該給它一個數字，因為它是一個會移動的東西。我們的產量將從 200 左右過渡到 160，之後將經過 190、180 和 170。最終產量可能會達到 160、155 或 150。我們將在適當的時候做出決定。因此，假設我們將在今年年底達到這個數字。

Okay. But 160 is still your target?

好的。但 160 仍然是你的目標嗎？

No, no. 160 is the number that we are going to transition through later this year.

不，不。 160 是我們今年稍後要過渡的數字。

Though if we can get lower Robert, we will go lower.

不過，如果我們能降低羅伯特，我們就會降低。

Okay. And just a clarification on my question on Microscan 7. I meant the sort of the Microscan product line ramps down -

好的。我對 Microscan 7 的問題做了一些澄清。我的意思是，Microscan 產品線正在逐步減少 -

Yes, it's the last of the Microscan range-- that's correct.

是的，這是 Microscan 系列的最後一款產品——沒錯。

Yes. And I would assume that the number of expected orders from Microscan 7 haven't been reduced given the current market environments since those were R & D tools of a low volume that there are probably still about the same expectation level?

是的。我認為，鑑於目前的市場環境，Microscan 7 的預期訂單數量並沒有減少，因為這些都是低容量的研發工具，因此預期水準可能仍然大致相同？

Yes. Around a handful of products will sell this tool.

是的。大約有少數產品會銷售這種工具。

Okay. Great, thank you very much.

好的。太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you Robert.

謝謝你，羅伯特。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr John Pitzer. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自約翰‧皮策先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes it's Credit Suisse First Boston. Good afternoon guys. Just a couple of follow-up questions. First, relative to break-even. What kind of shipment forecast can you give us in the first half of the year. And relative to that shipment forecast, do you think you are going to building backlog in the Litho? And then I have a couple of follow-up.

是的，它是瑞士信貸第一波士頓。大家下午好。僅有幾個後續問題。首先，相對於損益平衡。您可以提供我們上半年的出貨量預測嗎？相對於出貨量預測，您認為您會在 Litho 領域積壓訂單嗎？然後我還有一些後續問題。

John, we are not giving you a shipment forecast in the first year. We are quite explicit for any period of time in fact. We are quite explicit on that. We have shared with you our backlog 103 systems, just over six of them acquired in the first half with another five and a half months to go, so that will build obviously. 40 in the second half and that will build obviously, so will increase by close-- there's a lot of noise on the line, it's not from me I can assure you.

約翰，我們不會給你第一年的出貨量預測。事實上，我們對任何時期都相當明確。我們對此非常明確。我們已經與你們分享了我們積壓的 103 個系統，其中有六個是在上半年獲得的，還有五個半月的時間，因此顯然還會繼續增加。下半年將達到 40，而且這個數字顯然還會上升，所以到收盤時將會增加——網上有很多噪音，但我可以向你保證，這不是我說的。

Doug I apologize, I'm sitting in an airport right now.

道格，我很抱歉，我現在坐在機場。

Then I suggest that you [inaudible] the conference. I suggest you sign off or something. We can't hear you.

那我建議你[聽不清楚]參加會議。我建議你退出或做點別的。我們聽不到你的聲音。

[inaudible].

[聽不清楚]。

Okay, let me try again. We will build the backlog through the year and we are not giving guidance on shipments because neither you nor I, nor anyone else knows whether this market will grow rapidly, flatten out or decline gently. And until we know that, then forecasting is just like picking next week's lottery number.

好的，讓我再試一次。我們將在全年累積訂單，但我們不會提供出貨量的指導，因為無論是你、我或其他任何人都不知道這個市場是否會快速成長、趨於平穩或緩慢下降。在我們了解這一點之前，預測就像選擇下週的彩票號碼一樣。

Doug, when you look at your breakeven targets, how much more restructuring charges could we expect? Do you think most of the restructuring charges are behind you at this point?

道格，當你考慮到損益平衡目標時，我們預期重組費用還會增加多少？您是否認為目前大部分重組費用已經付清了？

Most are behind us. There will be some in this year because of legislation in Europe for laying people off. Clearly we won't incur the lay-off costs until this year, but it's a small amount. It's around Euros 10m or even less than Euros 10m. So it's not let me say material in that sense, although it's not insignificant either. So no, we don't except any more restructuring charges, other than the ongoing costs of that less than Euros 10m I just mentioned this year.

大多數都落後於我們。由於歐洲的裁員立法，今年將會出現一些裁員。顯然，我們要到今年才會產生裁員成本，但金額很小。大約是1000萬歐元，甚至不到1000萬歐元。所以，我不能說它是物質，儘管它也並非無關緊要。所以，除了我剛才提到的今年不到 1000 萬歐元的持續成本外，我們不會再收取任何重組費用。

And then the last question Doug. In the second half of 2002, it looks like you guys saw customer recognition on the TWINSCAN a little bit more aggressively than you had anticipated. I am assuming that you guys hit internal customer requirements more quickly. And then you mentioned earlier that some of the gross margin pressure in the second half of the year was due to TWINSCANs that were shipped early in the first half, but not recognized them. I'm kind of curious where do TWINSCAN gross margins sit going into the first half of the year and do you expect to see margin improvement in the first half of 2003 on the gross margin side? Thank you.

然後是最後一個問題，道格。 2002 年下半年，看起來你們發現顧客對 TWINSCAN 的認可度比預期的要高。我認為你們能夠更快地滿足內部客戶的需求。然後您之前提到，下半年的部分毛利率壓力是由於上半年早些時候發貨的TWINSCAN，但沒有被識別。我有點好奇 ​​TWINSCAN 的毛利率在今年上半年處於什麼水平，您是否預計 2003 年上半年的毛利率會有所提高？謝謝。

Okay well yes. Good set of questions there. TWINSCAN gross margins-- it's like any of our products. When the volume is right and Peter has mentioned that volume, 250 systems in total we will hit greater than 40% margins, gross margins on all our products including TWINSCAN. Now of course the volume is less than that right now, so we carry under recoveries because of that. And it is still an early tool but as you have noticed now we don't have to observe SAB101 and defer the income because the customer acceptance has become more natural and normal like an ordinary tool. That tells you that the product is improving, is being installed more quickly, it's coming up to it's full capabilities more quickly. Such that we can with confidence, the auditor's support by the way, take revenue recognition on the day that we ship as opposed to waiting for customer factory acceptance.

好的，是的。這是一組很好的問題。 TWINSCAN 毛利率－就像我們的任何產品一樣。當產量合適時（Peter 提到這個產量，總共 250 個系統），我們的所有產品（包括 TWINSCAN）的利潤率和毛利率將超過 40%。當然，現在的交易量比現在要少，因此我們的恢復能力較低。它仍然是一個早期工具，但正如您現在註意到的，我們不必觀察 SAB101 並推遲收入，因為客戶接受度變得更加自然和正常，就像普通工具一樣。這說明產品正在不斷改進，安裝速度越來越快，並且越來越快地發揮其全部功能。這樣，我們就可以滿懷信心地在審計師的支持下，在發貨當天確認收入，而不必等待客戶工廠驗收。

The gross margin is a function of two things. It's the volume and we have talked about that and you know the issue there and that will be fixed with the market and how market kind of share increases. And it's the fact that still it's only a year and a quarter old and a very complex tool and we are still going through the learning curve and so are our suppliers. But we have urgent programs with them and this year will see the benefits of some of the programs coming through. So that gross margin will continue to improve through this year, but it will take also volume to finally get us through to those 40% plus levels that we can reach with this product.

毛利率由兩個因素決定。問題在於數量，我們已經討論過這個問題，你知道那裡的問題，這個問題將透過市場和市場份額如何增加來解決。事實是，它才誕生一年零四分之一，而且是一個非常複雜的工具，我們仍在經歷學習過程，我們的供應商也是如此。但我們與他們有緊急計劃，今年我們將看到一些計劃的實施帶來的好處。因此，毛利率在今年將繼續提高，但最終也需要銷售量來使我們達到該產品所能達到的 40% 以上的水平。

Yes, I can add to that John. We started those margins at low 20s. We improved through the high 20s and we have to go into the 30s in the year 2003.

是的，我可以補充約翰。我們的利潤率一開始是 20 多美元。我們的成績從 20 多歲開始不斷進步，2003 年我們的目標是進入 30 多歲。

Great. Thanks guys.

偉大的。謝謝大家。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ali Imrani(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Ali Imrani（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes I am with CIBC World Markets. Hi Doug, hi Peter. I was hoping you could give us the mix of shipments in the second half of last year, including you mentioned 40 TWINSCAN. But could you give us a breakdown of that by light wave, 193, 248 [indecipherable] as well as the balance in terms of 248 versus [indecipherable].

是的，我是加拿大帝國商業銀行世界市場的員工。你好，Doug，你好，Peter。我希望您能告訴我們去年下半年的出貨情況，包括您提到的 40 台 TWINSCAN。但你能否給我們按光波、193、248 [難以辨認] 進行細分，以及按 248 與 [難以辨認] 進行細分。

Ali, yes we can. If you log onto our website, you will see it in full color before you. But since you are probably not in a position to do that this very second, we will try to give it to you just over the phone as well. [indecipherable] webcast.

阿里，是的，我們可以。如果您登入我們的網站，您將看到全彩色的頁面。但由於您現在可能無法做到這一點，我們也會嘗試透過電話為您服務。 [難以辨認] 網路廣播。

I mean as of now all those numbers will be part of the presentation that will be on the website, including the backlog numbers. But for your convenience I am going to give it to you. It's on the second half, 200mm [indecipherable] 15 scanners, 42 428nm scanners, 8 193nm scanners which brings the total 200mm scanners up to 65. And for 300mm, 6 [indecipherable] scanners, 19 248 scanners, 16 193 scanners making a total of 41 for 300mm. Total scanners of 106 and 4 new [indecipherable] scanners, bringing total new systems to 110 and then 17 used systems, all being steppers bringing the total of [indecipherable].

我的意思是，從現在起，所有這些數字都將成為網站上簡報的一部分，包括積壓數字。但為了您的方便，我將把它給您。在後半部分，200mm [無法辨識] 有 15 台掃描儀，42 台 428nm 掃描儀，8 台 193nm 掃描儀，使 200mm 掃描儀總數達到 65 台。對於 300mm，有 6 [無法辨識] 掃描儀，19248 台掃描儀，16193 台掃描儀，300mm 掃描儀總數為 41 台。總共有 106 台掃描儀和 4 台新的 [無法辨認] 掃描儀，使新系統總數達到 110 台，然後是 17 台二手系統，全部是步進機，總數為 [無法辨認]。

Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Looking at one of the questions that was asked before. How many cancellations did you see to your gross bookings in unit terms in the second half of last year? And I was hoping qualitatively you could give us an idea of where in the tail end of the year, the bookings have accelerated and what activity you have seen or expect to see here in January?

非常感謝，我很感激。查看之前提出的一個問題。去年下半年，您的總預訂量中有多少被取消？我希望您能從品質上告訴我們，在年底，預訂量在哪裡加速成長，以及您在一月份看到了什麼活動或預計會看到什麼活動？

I'll just give you an estimate and it really is a pretty crude one if any one of my colleagues here have a better number, then yell out. I would estimate that we took around 30 or 40, maybe 40 or 50 cancellations, gross cancellations in the second half of last year. And we took obviously orders, some orders to replace them but not totally, because the backlog's down. Does that answer that question good enough for you, Ali?

我只是給你一個估計，這確實是一個非常粗略的估計，如果我的任何一位同事有更好的數字，請大聲說出來。我估計，去年下半年我們取消了大約 30 或 40，甚至 40 或 50 個訂單，總計取消了 30 或 40 個訂單。我們顯然接到了一些訂單，有些是替換訂單，但不是全部，因為積壓訂單已經減少了。阿里，這能充分回答你的問題嗎？

Yes, it does. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

It's the closest I can get to that one. The cancellations have trickled down towards zero now, so let's hope that stays as it was. It was zero also in May and June of last year. So we have learned that one haven't we? And the second question was?

這是我能想到的最接近的一次。現在取消的數量已經逐漸減少到零，所以我們希望情況能保持原樣。去年五月和六月也為零。那我們已經學會了這一點，不是嗎？第二個問題是？

The second question was the order trends late in the quarter in December as well as the trends that you are seeing here in January. I am thinking in particular the de-ram space where you have a very strong exposure and seems to be leading the foundry reinvestments. And where you expect to see the impact of some of the budgets, some of the existing new customers are penetrating to your order book?

第二個問題是 12 月底季度的訂單趨勢以及 1 月看到的趨勢。我特別想到了代工領域，你們在該領域有非常強的曝光度，並且似乎引領著代工行業的再投資。您預計會看到一些預算的影響，一些現有的新客戶是否會滲透到您的訂單中？

I think it's fair to say and no secret that the last quarter of last year, the sector which saved us, if you like, from the dramatic cancellations from some of our foundry customers was the de-ram sector, particularly Korea. They are still going strong, negotiating and placing orders for 200mm product. I believe that the foundries will come back to life, if that's the correct expression, relatively soon in months rather than quarters from now, because if you look at their utilization at the leading edge, it's pretty good. Although overall, they still have a lot of spare capacity. And frankly for January we have been so busy getting this road show together, I have not actually looked, I think our customers are still taking a long vacation in January actually, still on the ski slopes I suspect. I think there is always a lull in the first few weeks. There are a few big bits of business lurking around that we are not going to talk about, but which we are going to be aggressively going for. I think actual bookings taken in the first couple of weeks of the year, you can count it on less than one hand I'm sure.

我認為可以公平地說，而且也不是什麼秘密，去年最後一個季度，讓我們免於一些代工客戶大幅取消訂單的行業是去內存行業，特別是韓國。他們仍然表現強勁，正在就 200 毫米產品進行談判並下訂單。我相信代工廠將會恢復生機，如果這是正確的說法，那麼從現在起的幾個月而不是幾個季度內相對較快，因為如果你看看它們在前沿的利用率，就會發現它們相當不錯。儘管總體而言，他們仍然擁有大量剩餘產能。坦白說，一月份我們一直忙於籌備這次路演，我實際上沒有留意，我認為我們的客戶一月份實際上還在休長假，我猜他們還在滑雪場。我認為最初幾週總會有一個平靜期。有一些潛在的大生意我們不會談論，但我們會積極爭取。我認為，今年頭幾週的實際預訂量，用一隻手都數不清。

Great. And one final question. You mentioned China several times. You obviously have a very strong install base there and a leading position at the largest foundry in that market that's now moving to two new fabs in Beijing. And I'm hoping you can give us some idea of what the regulatory issues might be in terms of shipping 300mm to that geography? And where you see the strength of orders from China continuing this year?

偉大的。最後一個問題。您多次提到中國。你們顯然在那裡擁有非常強大的安裝基礎，並且在該市場最大的代工廠中佔據領先地位，目前該工廠正搬遷至北京的兩家新工廠。我希望您能告訴我們在向該地區運送 300 毫米產品時可能遇到哪些監管問題？您認為今年來自中國的訂單動能會持續嗎？

On the regulatory conditions that apply, you mean the Wassenaar Agreement. I'm not the leading expert on that and I've yet to find anyone who is. I don't think there are any. But it's basically not a wafer size regulation, it's a wave length regulation. Taiwan in fact has placed on it's companies a wafer size regulation, but that was just for I guess for local reasons in Taiwan, political reasons. The issues are wavelength and resolving capability and that's where the Wassenaar Agreement put certain limitations on. All I can tell you is that we ship always with European Union agreement for our products and therefore we comply with the interpretation of the Wassenaar Agreement in every sense. And so far we have not been stopped from shipping anything that yet that they have asked for.

關於適用的監管條件，你指的是《瓦森納協議》。我不是這方面的頂尖專家，而且我還沒有找到任何這樣的專家。我認為沒有。但它基本上不是晶圓尺寸的規定，而是波長的規定。台灣實際上已經對其公司製定了晶圓尺寸規定，但我猜這只是出於台灣的當地原因和政治原因。問題在於波長和解析能力，而這正是《瓦森納協定》所施加某些限制的地方。我可以告訴你的是，我們的產品運輸始終遵循歐盟協議，因此我們在各方面都遵守《瓦森納協議》的解釋。到目前為止，我們還沒有停止運送他們要求的任何東西。

Yes, and yes I do believe strongly in China. Huge population, dramatically low cost base, you know engineers are a factor of 10 less there than in the USA and Western Europe. And great engineers, lots of them. And a lot of incentives from governments local and national, great work ethic, huge demand for semiconductors internally and a huge demand to export them. And therefore the next 15 years I think, I believe that China will be alongside the Japans, the Taiwans and the USAs of this world in vying for the top slot for making semiconductors.

是的，我確實堅信中國。人口眾多，成本基礎極低，你知道那裡的工程師數量比美國和西歐少 10 倍。他們中有很多都是優秀的工程師。地方和國家政府都提供了許多激勵措施，有良好的職業道德，國內對半導體的需求龐大，出口需求也很大。因此，我認為未來 15 年，中國將與日本、台灣和美國並駕齊驅，爭奪半導體製造業的領先地位。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Philip Lee. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Philip Lee 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

This is Jay Dana from JP Morgan. Good afternoon guys.

我是摩根大通的傑伊·達納。大家下午好。

Hello Jay.

你好，傑伊。

Hi Jay.

你好，傑伊。

A couple of questions. Doug, on the sale of the ThermCo business. Can you kind of give us some sort of sense as to what would be a reasonable expectation as to what you can bring in for that? And then I've got two follow-ups.

有幾個問題。道格 (Doug) 談到 ThermCo 業務的出售。您能否向我們介紹一下您對此能帶來什麼的合理預期？然後我還有兩個後續問題。

How much would you offer Jay? We're realistic here. You have may have noticed and I'm sure you have Jay from the background. This is not exactly a boom market for semiconductor CAPEX equipment nor for mergers and acquisitions of such companies. I think, well-- because we are negotiating and discussing with a multiple group of people who are looking to buy it, I'm not actually going to give away too much of our negotiation tactics here. But we are talking multiple 10s of millions, but probably not over Euro100m, okay?

你會給傑伊出多少錢？我們很現實。您可能已經注意到了，而且我確信您在背景中已經看到了傑伊。對於半導體資本支出設備以及這類公司的併購來說，這並不是一個繁榮的市場。我認為，因為我們正在與多個想要購買它的人進行談判和討論，所以我實際上不會在這裡透露太多我們的談判策略。但我們談論的是數千萬，但可能不會超過 1 億歐元，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That's as good as I'm going to tell you given that we are negotiating as we speak almost. And we do have people who are interested. Some are strategically interested because they make equipment. Others are financial houses who see an ability here to buy it, dress it up and sell it on I guess later. And surprisingly the negotiations are pretty strong as we speak. But we also have a second objective Jay. And I say this because of our install base of customers. Those customers buy from us as well as [indecipherable] also litho tools. We have an obligation, a right and expectation by them to make sure that we do sell it into good hands. So we want a customer and it may not be highest bidder, but we want someone to buy from us this company with the full intention of making it successful and supporting the existing install base and bringing out these new ALD products that they have that are so good. So we may not take the highest bidder, we may take the one that's got the best offering from a support and ongoing point of view.

鑑於我們幾乎是邊說邊談判，所以我只能告訴你這些。我們確實有一些對此感興趣的人。有些公司出於戰略考慮而感興趣，因為他們製造設備。其他金融機構認為，他們有能力購買它，對其進行修飾，然後出售它。令人驚訝的是，目前談判進展相當順利。但傑伊，我們還有第二個目標。我之所以這麼說，是因為我們有大量的客戶。這些顧客不僅向我們購買[難以辨認]，也購買平版印刷工具。我們有義務、有權利、也期望他們確保我們能把產品賣給可靠的人。因此，我們希望有一個客戶，而且可能不是出價最高的人，但我們希望有人向我們購買這家公司，並全心全意地讓該公司取得成功，支持現有的安裝基礎，並推出他們擁有的這些非常好的新型 ALD 產品。因此，我們可能不會選擇出價最高的人，而是選擇從支持和持續發展的角度提供最佳服務的人。

Okay. And then the follow-on is, if you look at the customers that you are negotiating with right now in terms of companies, chip makers that are going to place orders in the next two to three months, would you characterize that as a small subset of strategic buyers or a broader base of chip makers from multiple end markets? And then the last question is you mentioned that pricing is challenging earlier in your comments. Could you give us a little granularity on that please?

好的。接下來的問題是，如果您看看現在正在與之談判的客戶，就公司而言，晶片製造商將在未來兩到三個月內下訂單，您會將其描述為一小部分戰略買家還是來自多個終端市場的更廣泛的晶片製造商群體？最後一個問題是，您在先前的評論中提到定價具有挑戰性。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這一點？

I'll begin with the pricing one actually because that's the easy one to answer actually, Jay. And one I'll let my colleagues think about for a second or two. I'm not sure I can be very granular with the pricing. Well let's be quite frank here. Although we have-- let me say the best tools available-- I think that's probably not a contestable issue, unless you work for one of two Japanese companies. Given we have the best tools, you would think it's easy to get any price we want. That isn't the case. Customers can always hold off making their purchases another month or two and we are quite frankly very hungry for orders. And very occasionally therefore, just to get the order in the house, so we can actually turn it into steel and glass, we will offer a point or two of more discount than we are kind of normally going to do when we are full. And also the competition has good pieces of paper. They can always talk about in nine months time, they will have a wonderful high flying, whiz bang product which may never happen, but customers can use that to put the fear of god into my sales guys and me and always get a point or two of discount extra above and beyond our normal level of discounting.

我實際上將從定價問題開始，因為這實際上是一個很容易回答的問題，傑伊。我會讓我的同事思考一、兩秒鐘。我不確定我能否詳細說明定價。好吧，我們就坦白說。儘管我們擁有——讓我說是現有的最好的工具——但我認為這可能不是一個有爭議的問題，除非你在兩家日本公司中的一家工作。鑑於我們擁有最好的工具，您可能會認為我們很容易獲得想要的任何價格。事實並非如此。客戶總是可以推遲一兩個月再進行購買，而坦白說，我們非常渴望訂單。因此，非常偶然地，只是為了獲得訂單，以便我們能夠將其轉化為鋼鐵和玻璃，我們會提供比我們通常在滿載時提供的折扣多一到兩個百分點的折扣。而且比賽也有很好的論文。他們總是可以談論在九個月的時間內，他們將擁有一款可能永遠不會發生的精彩的高飛、令人驚嘆的產品，但客戶可以利用這一點讓我和我的銷售人員感到恐懼，並且總是能獲得超出我們正常折扣水平一兩個百分點的額外折扣。

So we have probably seen discounts go from the low teens towards the high teens in percentage terms. And occasionally more than that and sometimes less than that. It's not distressing but it is a sign of the times and we have to be aware that that's the case right now and will remain the case I think this year. So even although we boast the best products and have the best products, we are not immune from the ability of smart buyers to really wring out of us every last cent that's possible.

因此，我們可能已經看到折扣的百分比從百分之十幾下降到百分之十幾。有時甚至更多，有時則更少。這並不令人痛苦，但它是時代的標誌，我們必須意識到現在的情況就是這樣，而且我認為今年的情況仍將如此。因此，儘管我們擁有最好的產品，也誇耀自己擁有最好的產品，但我們仍然無法免受精明買家的誘惑，他們會從我們身上榨取每一分錢。

Okay and then on the number of customers in the loop? And then finally do you expect to ship any TWINSCANs in 2003 with any lasers other than [Symer]?

好的，那麼循環中的客戶數量是多少？最後，您是否預計在 2003 年推出任何配備除 [Symer] 以外的雷射的 TWINSCAN？

Since you mention TWINSCAN Jay, can I just come back to your first part of the question? Because the 300mm discounts are much less than those I've mentioned, that's an average. They are towards the single digit top end, very low double digit numbers percentage discounts.

既然您提到了 TWINSCAN Jay，我可以回到您問題的第一部分嗎？因為 300mm 的折扣比我提到的要少得多，所以這是一個平均值。它們的最高端都是個位數，而折扣百分比則非常低，只有兩位數。

I don't know. Yes, I guess we are going to ship TWINSCAN with other lasers. I am pretty sure that we do. Yes, there's nods round the table and my colleagues say yes. So [indecipherable] and [indecipherable], good for you guys. And in addition bring some competition into the laser business.

我不知道。是的，我想我們會將 TWINSCAN 與其他雷射一起運送。我確信我們確實如此。是的，大家點頭表示同意，我的同事也表示同意。所以 [難以辨認] 和 [難以辨認]，對你們來說很好。另外也為雷射業務帶來了一些競爭。

Can you give a sense as to what percentage that would be? And then just some comments on the number of customers in the bookings loop?

您能說明一下這個百分比是多少嗎？然後您對預訂循環中的客戶數量有何評論？

I can't give you any intelligence into the percentage. I think it's still going to be high for [Symer] whether it's 70, 80, I don't know but high anyway. The customer loop, give me that again, Jay, what are you wanting there?

我無法向您提供有關該百分比的任何資訊。我認為對於 [Symer] 來說這個數字仍然很高，無論是 70 還是 80，我不知道，但無論如何都很高。客戶循環，再說一遍，傑伊，你想要什麼？

I'm just kind of curious. In terms of the customers, the chipmakers that you are negotiating with for bookings to be placed in the first quarter let's say. Okay? Are you looking at a small number of strategic chipmakers, like maybe Intel, Samsung, IBM a few others? Or are you looking at a broad base of chipmakers from many different end market segments?

我只是有點好奇。就客戶而言，比如說您正在與晶片製造商協商第一季的預訂。好的？您是否關注少數戰略晶片製造商，例如英特爾、三星、IBM 等？或者您正在關注來自眾多不同終端市場領域的晶片製造商？

Yes. It's broad based actually. I think your question is are only one or two guys buying round here? The answer is no. One or two guys are buying a lot, but there is a lot of guys buying you know ones and twos. So we go for all of them. Everything that moves right now we are shooting at it. So we have got a broad base of customers that we are currently discussing for bookings to be taken this quarter. If you look at the distribution by units, then may be there is three or four of those guys who account for 70% of the number of units we will take. But there are a lot of customers out there who do want to buy one or two.

是的。事實上，它的基礎很廣泛。我認為您的問題是只有一兩個人在這裡買東西嗎？答案是否定的。有一兩個人買了很多，但也有很多人只買一兩個。因此，我們全力以赴。現在我們正在射擊一切移動的物體。因此，我們擁有廣泛的客戶群，目前正在討論本季的預訂。如果以單位分佈來看，可能有三、四個這樣的人，佔到了我們將要帶走的單位數量的 70%。但還是有很多顧客想買一、兩輛。

Gotcha. Thanks very much for your help, appreciate it.

明白了。非常感謝您的幫助，感激不盡。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr Matt Gable. Please go ahead sir.

謝謝。下一個問題來自馬特蓋博先生。先生，請繼續。

I was wondering if you could talk about bookings linearity in the second half, particularly in the last calendar quarter of the year?

我想知道您是否可以談談下半年，特別是今年最後一個季度的預訂線性？

I'm glad you mentioned that because we have with us our EVP of Sales and I'm always mentioning to him this bloody booking of linearity, which is not linear at all I might tell you and I'm blaming him for that. In defense of him he tells me the customers are saying this as well. The booking linearity for a company like ASML, where we ship let's say around 200 systems a year in this kind of difficult times, like last year, is very, very lumpy indeed. I try to allude to this by giving you a backlog slide by month and you will it on our web cast as well. And in a way, that tells you it's not just bookings, it's backlogs.

我很高興你提到這一點，因為我們有銷售執行副總裁，我總是向他提到這種該死的線性預訂，我可能會告訴你，這根本不是線性的，我為此責怪他。為了替他辯護，他告訴我顧客們也是這麼說的。對於像 ASML 這樣的公司來說，在去年這樣的困難時期，我們每年出貨約 200 套系統，因此訂單線性確實非常非常不穩定。我嘗試透過每月向您提供積壓幻燈片來暗示這一點，您也可以在我們的網路廣播中看到它。從某種程度上來說，這告訴你這不僅僅是預訂，而是積壓訂單。

So it's a function of what we have shipped, what we've booked and what's been cancelled-- making the bookings if you like. But you can see it's very lumpy. If you look at the underlying bookings underneath that, it's even lumpier. You know we only negotiate with Samsung, the annual wrestling match once a year, take a large order and then we book nothing from them for maybe six to nine months. So we go into a drought period of Samsung orders. We're still living off their backlog. And that is true for most of our big customers, they negotiate annual buys and then we ship off and we bill against it for the year. It isn't as though we are selling MacDonald hamburgers with a statistical probability of selling 3m a day or whatever. So you would not like to see our bookings linearity because it's anything but linear.

因此，它是我們已運送的貨物、已預訂的貨物和已取消的貨物的功能——如果您願意的話，可以進行預訂。但你可以看到它非常凹凸不平。如果你看一下下面的潛在預訂情況，你會發現情況更加不明朗。你知道，我們每年只與三星談判一次，進行一次年度摔角比賽，接受一個大訂單，然後大概六到九個月內我們就不會從他們那裡訂貨了。因此我們進入了三星訂單的低迷期。我們仍然依靠他們的積壓工作生存。對於我們的大多數大客戶來說，情況都是如此，他們協商年度採購，然後我們發貨，並按年度計費。這並不意味著我們銷售的麥當勞漢堡包在統計上每天可以賣出 300 萬個。因此，您不會希望看到我們的預訂呈線性，因為它根本不是線性的。

Right. Did you see any discernible trend up or down as you exited the year?

正確的。您在年底時是否看到任何明顯的上升或下降趨勢？

As usual at the year-end we saw a bit of an uptake because customers have year-ends and we have year-ends and there is a fine focus. For us to get the orders in and for the customers to get the orders placed before their bosses or CEOs cut back their CAPEX.

像往常一樣，我們在年底看到了一些成長，因為客戶有年終，我們也有年終，並且有一個很好的重點。在老闆或執行長削減資本支出之前，我們要收到訂單，客戶也要收到訂單。

Right.

正確的。

It's always a kind of nerve wracking last three days in the year as we get these negotiations concluded and they hang out as long as they can and we hang out as long as we can and then it finally comes through on Christmas Eve.

每年的最後三天總是令人緊張，因為我們要完成這些談判，然後他們盡可能長時間地等待，我們也盡可能長時間地等待，最後在聖誕節前夕完成。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Steven Puckerwitz(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Steven Puckerwitz（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, it's Steve Puckerwitz(ph), CIBC World Markets. Just a real quick question. Did I hear correctly your anticipating gross margins to be on a run rate of approximately 30% by year-end 2003? Was that correct or have I just -

是的，他是加拿大帝國商業銀行世界市場的史蒂夫普克維茲 (Steve Puckerwitz)。這只是一個簡單的問題。我是否聽得沒錯，您預計 2003 年底的毛利率將達到約 30%？那是正確的嗎？或者我只是 -

It's 30% in 2003, where it will end is a function of the ultimate business volume and of some of the elements that we discussed over this call which is the price pressure that we are seeing. But all our target is to be over 30%.

2003 年這一比例為 30%，最終數字取決於最終業務量以及我們在這次電話會議上討論的一些因素，也就是我們看到的價格壓力。但我們所有的目標都是超過30%。

And a run rate by year-end. Okay. Thank you very much.

以及年底前的運轉率。好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Vocara(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 David Vocara（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, thanks for taking the call from Q Investments in the US. I would just like to understand, given the fact that you have laid out in your cash flows and your P&L Statement the discontinued operations, which appears to have been a very heavy cash drain this year, Euro127m I reckon for the full year. I mean once you sell the Thermal operation then you discontinue or you are actually in the process of shutting down Track-- I mean are those costs essentially going to go away pretty much overnight or are they still going to be a drain within the next six months or even the next twelve months from those? How is that going to impact your cash flow? Can you give some details on that?

是的，感謝您接聽美國 Q Investments 的電話。我想了解的是，鑑於你們已在現金流和損益表中列出了已停止的業務，這似乎是今年非常嚴重的現金流失，我估計全年的現金流失為 1.27 億歐元。我的意思是，一旦你出售了Thermal業務，然後你停止了或你實際上正在關閉Track業務——我的意思是這些成本基本上會在一夜之間消失，還是它們仍然會在未來六個月甚至十二個月內成為一筆負擔？這將如何影響您的現金流？能提供一些細節嗎？

Track is essentially over and out. There will be a small cost coming through in the next few months, but nothing of significance, nothing material. Thermal of course keeps going until we sell it. And as you know we don't when that will be. We have given you some crude estimate of between four and eight months as a likely time scale, it could be sooner, it could be later.

賽道基本上已經結束。未來幾個月會產生少量成本，但不會是重大的、實質的。當然，熱能會一直持續到我們將其售出為止。正如你所知，我們並不知道那會是什麼時候。我們粗略估計了一下，可能的時間範圍是四到八個月，但可能更早，也可能更晚。

And do you have any leeway opportunities to reduce the burn from Thermal in the meantime or what kind of amount does this represent -

您是否有任何餘地可以減少熱能造成的燒傷，或者這代表著什麼樣的程度？

Peter may cover the amount with you, but yes we have as well as put the operation up for sale and discussing now with potential buyers as you heard earlier. We have actually also reduced their cost base, so that we had the ability and have taken the action to reduce their burn rate as well. Because essentially this is now an operation discontinued and for sale, I have to some extent lose interest in the operating of the operation. I let the negotiations continue. So I don't know what the burn rate for the first few months could be. Peter may be able to say.

彼得可能會和你支付這筆費用，但正如你之前聽到的，我們已經把業務掛牌出售，現在正在與潛在買家討論。我們實際上也降低了他們的成本基礎，因此我們有能力並且已經採取行動來降低他們的燒錢率。因為本質上這是一個已經停止並準備出售的業務，所以我在某種程度上對該業務的運作失去了興趣。我讓談判繼續進行。所以我不知道頭幾個月的燒錢率是多少。彼得也許會這麼說。

I think on an annualized basis, we don't expect that that will be more than Euro20m. But the sooner that we sell it, you know the better it is. But that's all in a few years [indecipherable] so it's up to us to come to the conclusion quick.

我認為，以年率計算，我們預計這個數字不會超過 2000 萬歐元。但我們越早出售，你就知道它越好。但那都是幾年後的事了[難以辨認]所以我們必須盡快得出結論。

I'm sorry you just said not more than Euro 20m -

很抱歉，您剛才說不超過 2000 萬歐元 -

That's for a full year and a half year Euro 10m and a quarter year Euro 5m.

全年和半年度的貸款額為 1000 萬歐元，季度的貸款額為 500 萬歐元。

Yes, but how do you explain then the very large figure of Euro 127m for 2002? Where did that come from essentially?

是的，但是您如何解釋 2002 年 1.27 億歐元這個巨額數字呢？這究竟是從哪裡來的呢？

That came from the Euro 127m included all the charges that we put in there for closing the business down. And that is a full year loss for the Track operation and a full year loss for the Thermal operation before it was restructured in December.

這筆錢來自 1.27 億歐元，其中包括我們為關閉業務而收取的所有費用。這是軌道業務全年的虧損，也是熱力業務在 12 月重組前的全年虧損。

Okay.

好的。

So it's a totally different picture. You can hardly compare the two numbers.

所以這是完全不同的景象。你很難比較這兩個數字。

Alright. Just one last thing if you don't mind? As far as the capital expenditure guidance if at all for next year. What are you targeting?

好吧。如果您不介意的話還有最後一件事？至於明年的資本支出指導（如果有的話）。你的目標是什麼？

Yes, we are not going to exceed our 2002 number of slightly over Euro 130m. It's very likely going to be less because our need to invest is limited to the introduction of our new tools, the [indecipherable] 193mm tool, [indecipherable] for and 157 tool. There will be our regular information technology infrastructure cost that we will put into capital expenditure, but it's not going to exceed our 2002 numbers. It will be anywhere between Euro 120m and Euro 130m.

是的，我們不會超過 2002 年略高於 1.3 億歐元的數字。這個數字很可能會更少，因為我們需要投資的僅限於引入新工具，[難以辨認] 193 毫米工具、[難以辨認] 和 157 工具。我們將把常規的資訊科技基礎設施成本投入資本支出，但不會超過 2002 年的數字。價格將在1.2億歐元至1.3億歐元之間。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Let me just comment, it's now I think Central European time 24 minutes pas the hour. We have to close at 6.30, so there are six minutes or five minutes left. Maybe two or three questions.

讓我評論一下，我認為現在是中歐時間，每小時 24 分鐘。我們必須在 6 點 30 分關門，所以還剩下六分鐘或五分鐘。可能有兩三個問題。

Thank you sir. Your next question comes from Mr Francois Breao(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝您，先生。您的下一個問題來自 Francois Breao 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

This is Francois Breao(ph) from Credit Technical. Just one small one to verify. The used ASP, is it around Euro 5m, is that the correct figure because I was trying to reconcile your average unit price? The second question you mentioned a price for the disposal of the Thermal operation. I assume that this price is over and above the asset value in the balance sheet? Is that correct also?

我是 Credit Technical 的 Francois Breao (ph)。只需驗證一個小的即可。二手車的平均售價約為 500 萬歐元，這是正確的數字嗎，因為我試圖核對您的平均單價？第二個問題，您提到了熱能業務的處置價格。我認為這個價格高於資產負債表中的資產價值？那也是正確的嗎？

We're just trying to look up the used ASP one. From my recollection it's more like than Euro 1m than Euro 5m which tells you the vintage nature of the product. So that answers the first part of your question. And because we were scrabbling for that information, we missed your second part of the question I'm sorry.

我們只是想找一個使用過的 ASP。在我的記憶中，它更像是 100 萬歐元而不是 500 萬歐元，這說明了該產品的復古性質。這回答了你問題的第一部分。由於我們正在努力獲取這些信息，所以我們錯過了您問題的第二部分，很抱歉。

Okay. So the second one is that you mentioned the price you want for the Thermal business. Is that above the asset value, the book value?

好的。第二個問題是，您提到了您希望熱力業務的價格。這是否高於資產價值、帳面價值？

The book value is Euro 40m as you can see from the balance sheet. And Doug gave a very wide range that I've got to stick with. I mean we are right in the middle of a negotiation process and I am not able to comment any further.

從資產負債表中可以看出，帳面價值為 4,000 萬歐元。道格給了非常廣泛的範圍，我必須堅持下去。我的意思是我們正處於談判過程中，我無法進一步發表評論。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Next one please.

請下一個。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Miss Moira Gabero(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Moira Gabero 女士（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Actually it's Peter Testa at Warner Investments. A couple of questions quickly. One on working capital. If you could give some update as to the ability you think you are going to have in getting your suppliers to accept different payment terms and get your customers to pay more quickly? Secondly is on the order book and the state of the market. To what extent are you collecting deposits or getting an active deposit or finding it difficult to get deposits to then allow you to plan your production more clearly? And on the 300mm part of the order book, there's a theory out there of a first wave and a second wave of investment and that we have seen the first wave of investment and the second wave may take longer to actually be drawn down. Can you comment a bit on that and in particular as regards your backlog? Thanks.

其實是華納投資公司的彼得泰斯塔 (Peter Testa)。快速問幾個問題。一個是關於營運資金。您能否提供一些最新信息，說明您認為您有能力讓您的供應商接受不同的付款條件並讓您的客戶更快地付款？其次是訂單和市場狀況。您在多大程度上收集了存款或獲得了活躍的存款或發現很難獲得存款，以便讓您更清楚地計劃生產？對於 3 億訂單部分，有一種理論認為會經歷第一波和第二波投資，我們已經看到第一波投資，而第二波投資可能需要更長時間才能真正減少。您能否對此發表一些評論，特別是關於您的積壓工作？謝謝。

Okay. Last one first, 300mm wave as you call it. Yes I think there has been a wave because initially there is the first products to allow customers to produce their first wafers and learn how to do all the difficult stuff they have to do. And then move into the consolidation period where they improve the yields and then comes along the big ultimate wave, if you like, that drives their factories to be full. We have not hit the second point yet. We've had the first point. You know our backlog for 300mm is 59% by value, right? So, half a billion in round figures of Euros is our 300mm backlog. It's pretty good and orders will continue coming in for those products for sure. So I don't think we've actually done into the second acceleration mode yet, but we are certainly still moving ahead, still supplying customers and customers are still negotiating for even more products. So I think we're coming through that first phase. I think it is in the flattish mode now, but flat is actually up slightly, hence the half a million backlog. And at some point in the next twelve months, whether it's three or nine, or twelve I don't know, it will start to kick into the second phase.

好的。最後一個，也就是你所說的 300mm 波。是的，我認為已經出現了一股浪潮，因為最初有第一批產品可以讓客戶生產他們的第一批晶圓，並學習如何完成他們必須做的所有困難的事情。然後進入整合期，他們提高產量，然後出現最終的大浪潮，如果你願意的話，這會推動他們的工廠滿載運作。我們還沒達到第二點。我們已經知道第一點了。您知道我們的 300 毫米積壓訂單價值佔 59% 嗎？因此，我們的 300 毫米積壓訂單總額為 5 億歐元。這非常好，這些產品的訂單肯定會繼續湧入。因此，我認為我們實際上還沒有進入第二種加速模式，但我們肯定仍在前進，仍在為客戶提供產品，而客戶仍在就更多產品進行談判。所以我認為我們正處於第一階段。我認為現在處於平穩模式，但實際上平穩狀態略有上升，因此積壓了 50 萬。在接下來的十二個月中的某個時候，無論是三個月還是九個月，還是十二個月，我不知道，它將開始進入第二階段。

Do you think the delivery of that is contingent on their experience with the first machines they have in getting them up to efficiency rates and capacity utilization and so on?

您是否認為，這一目標的實現取決於他們使用第一批機器的經驗，以提高效率和產能利用率等等？

Absolutely, absolutely. I mean it depends on two things. Their experience with the first ones and also the order book. So yes, I think we can help with the first one, we can't do a damn thing with the second one other than buy a lot more PCs and mobile phones each, which I encourage by the way. So yes, I think the experience issue, it is a difficult ride for our customers because they are bringing on 300mm, but also they are bringing on at 130nm in some cases even better. So it's a double kind of jeopardy there and they've had a tough time some of them to get the process and the new wafer size and all the brand new equipment to work. They are coming through those early kind of disquietening days and seeing the benefits now. Some customers are now reporting yields at 300mm equal to yields at 200mm, which means the cost base is going to be less as of now for some of those guys than to build a 200mm -

絕對，絕對。我的意思是這取決於兩件事。他們與第一批客戶以及訂單簿的經驗。所以是的，我認為我們可以為第一個目標提供幫助，但對於第二個目標，我們除了購買更多的個人電腦和手機之外，什麼也做不了，順便說一句，我鼓勵這樣做。所以是的，我認為經驗問題，對於我們的客戶來說這是一個艱難的過程，因為他們正在採用 300 毫米工藝，但在某些情況下他們也在採用 130 奈米工藝，甚至更好。因此，這是一種雙重危險，他們遇到了一些困難，無法讓製程、新的晶圓尺寸和所有全新的設備正常運作。他們正在度過早期那些令人不安的日子，現在看到了好處。一些客戶現在報告 300mm 的產量與 200mm 的產量相同，這意味著對於其中一些客戶來說，目前的成本基礎將低於製造 200mm 的成本基礎 -

So the timing might be a bit variable depending on clearance?

那麼時間可能會根據間隙而有點變化？

Yes, yes. Regarding deposits from customers. We don't get many of those. They are not too inclined to give them to us. We would love to and it's always an ambition of ours, but we don't get much satisfaction, not surprisingly from our customers. So we build to order and we also build intelligently against one or two letters of intent, which are proving to be highly credible. And we build occasionally where we think we know what's going to happen and that's of course the slightly more difficult part of the business. But with 300mm we have the full knowledge that if we build against a speculative order for customer X, if they don't take it, within a pretty short space of time customer Y will because 300mm is in fairly consistent demand and is the future product.

是的，是的。關於客戶存款。我們得到的並不多。他們不太願意把它們給我們。我們很樂意這樣做，這一直是我們的願望，但我們並沒有從中獲得太多的滿足感，這並不奇怪，我們的客戶也是如此。因此，我們根據訂單進行生產，並且還根據一兩封意向書進行智慧生產，事實證明這些意向書是高度可信的。我們偶爾會在我們認為知道會發生什麼的地方進行構建，這當然是業務中稍微困難的部分。但對於 300mm，我們完全清楚，如果我們根據客戶 X 的投機訂單進行生產，如果他們不接受，那麼在很短的時間內，客戶 Y 就會接受，因為 300mm 的需求相當穩定，而且是未來的產品。

I should say however that we do receive prepayments or deposits from customers of the development projects that we have with them for [indecipherable] 157nm project.

不過，我應該說，我們確實收到了與我們合作進行 [無法辨認] 157nm 專案開發的客戶支付的預付款或定金。

And the UV.

還有紫外線。

And the UV yes.

紫外線也一樣。

Okay. And the working capital question?

好的。還有營運資金問題嗎？

That's with respect to the accounts receivable sold to suppliers. I mean of course it is difficult for the total supply chain, so starting 2002 we have entered into a new long-term agreement with many of our suppliers, whereby we have made much more stringent deals with them with respect to their order lead time. But also with respect to the ASML payment schedule, which is of course difficult in the current circumstances, but we have been successful.

這是關於出售給供應商的應收帳款。我的意思是，這對整個供應鏈來說當然很困難，所以從 2002 年開始，我們與許多供應商達成了新的長期協議，在訂單交付週期方面，我們與他們達成了更嚴格的協議。但對於 ASML 的付款計劃，在當前情況下當然很困難，但我們已經成功了。

With respect to the accounts receivables, our customers, it is of course in periods like this it is a continual struggle where our customers will use every argument whether it's a loose screw or whether it's a missing document. They will use every argument not to pay. So it is up to the company to basically organize ourselves in such a manner that the sales organization works together with customer support, with the factory and with development and with the finance organization. And that is basically where it is because if you take the impediments away, customers will always pay. We have a customer base that is from a financial point of view normally very healthy and we aren't delivering under letters of credit. So it is up to us basically internally to speed up that process and to be very focused. And that's what we are doing and we are seeing days outstanding coming down as we speak, but we are not there yet. So there is still some ground to conquer.

對於應收帳款，我們的客戶，當然在這樣的時期，這是一個持續的鬥爭，我們的客戶會使用每一個論點，無論是螺絲鬆了還是文件遺失。他們會用盡一切理由拒絕付款。因此，公司應該以這樣的方式組織我們自己，即銷售組織與客戶支援、工廠、開發和財務組織一起工作。基本上就是這樣，因為如果你消除障礙，顧客就會一直付錢。從財務角度來看，我們的客戶群通常非常健康，而且我們不會透過信用證交貨。因此，基本上，我們內部的責任是加快這一進程並高度集中註意力。這就是我們正在做的事情，而且我們看到未償付天數正在減少，但我們還沒有達到這個目標。因此，仍有一些領域需要征服。

By the way when my CFO mentions to the dear listeners on this call a loose screw is not talking about the CEO okay?

順便說一句，當我的財務長在這次電話會議中向各位聽眾提到「螺絲鬆了」時，他指的並不是首席執行官，好嗎？

So is that to say that in a currently relatively flat environment, you are not seeing any particular impediment either from your supply chains' struggles or from your customers' struggles to achieving your targets?

那麼，是不是說，在目前相對平穩的環境中，您沒有看到任何來自供應鏈或客戶在實現目標方面遇到的特殊障礙？

[inaudible] fourth quarter Peter.

[聽不清楚] 第四季度，彼得。

I mean continuing and going on?

我的意思是繼續下去？

Yes and I think we are not there yet. [indecipherable] on both inventory and on receivables there is still room to find improvement and we will do that.

是的，我認為我們還沒有到達那裡。 [難以辨認] 庫存和應收帳款方面仍有改進的空間，我們會這樣做。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

It is 6.30 and because we are generous, I will allow more single question, not one of these multiple part questions please. So if the last lucky winner would like to place their call?

現在是 6.30，因為我們很慷慨，所以我將允許更多單一問題，而不是這些多部分問題之一。那麼，如果最後的幸運獲勝者願意撥打電話呢？

Thank you. Your last question comes from Mr Johannes Reece(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝。您的最後一個問題來自約翰內斯·里斯先生（音）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後提出您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon it is Johannes Reece(ph) TRT in Frankfurt. One question regarding the ordering. Take maybe in two parts but very quick. First, of de-ram orders based on the next shrink you have already seen or is something to come in the first half? And you mentioned regarding the whole semiconductor industry that you expect an improvement, a stronger improvement in the second half. Does this mean that you even expect a stronger order development for your company in the second half?

是的，下午好，我是法蘭克福的 Johannes Reece(ph) TRT。關於訂購的一個問題。可能分為兩部分，但非常快。首先，您已經看到基於下一次萎縮的取消訂單的情況，還是上半年將會出現這種情況？您提到，就整個半導體產業而言，您預計下半年會出現改善，而且是更強勁的改善。這是否意味著您甚至預計貴公司下半年的訂單成長會更加強勁？

On the first part of your question which was de-ram based and I did ask for a one-part question but I guess we'll allow this one to slip through. I missed part of it, did you say Micron did I hear at one time?

關於您問題的第一部分，它是基於 de-ram 的，我確實問了一個單部分的問題，但我想我們會允許這個問題通過。我錯過了一部分，你說的是美光公司嗎？我曾經聽過嗎？

No, no, the overall.

不不不，整體來說。

Oh the overall.

哦，總體來說。

Most de-ram companies speak of CAPEX in their first quarter in Q4 last year because of the next shrinking step to 2010 to 2011 based on the technologies. Therefore have we seen most of the orders from the de-ram side already or is there more to come based on the next shrinking?

大多數去記憶體公司在去年第四季的第一季就談到了資本支出，因為根據技術的發展，2010 年至 2011 年的下一步縮減。那麼，我們是否已經看到了來自去庫存方面的大部分訂單，或者根據下一次縮減，是否會有更多訂單出現？

There's more to come based on the next shrink. We saw a lot of orders for existing technology, 130nano meter and now we are going to see the next phase down at 190 nano meters. That answers the first part of your question. What was your second question again?

根據下一次心理諮商的結果，還會有更多消息傳來。我們看到了許多針對現有技術（130奈米）的訂單，現在我們將看到下一階段的190奈米技術。這回答了你問題的第一部分。你的第二個問題是什麼？

Second question was regarding your overall outlook on the semiconductor industry. You mentioned second half will be stronger than the first half, therefore is it even the case for your company on the order side?

第二個問題是關於您對半導體產業的整體展望。您提到下半年會比上半年強勁，那麼貴公司在訂單方面也是這樣嗎？

I mean if the people who forecast increase in semiconductors later this year are right, and I don't claim to be able to forecast that, I just read the forecasts I see. Then clearly at some point in time we will see an increase in orders. But bear in mind there is a time lag between our customers increasing their output, using their capacity until it triggers the need for them to place the orders. And there is often a three to six month time lag between that. So a resurgence in semiconductor output won't instantaneously give us new orders. There will be a time lag there of a few months.

我的意思是，如果預測今年稍後半導體銷量成長的人是正確的，而且我並不聲稱能夠預測這一點，我只是閱讀了我看到的預測。那麼顯然在某個時間點我們會看到訂單量的增加。但請記住，我們的客戶在增加產量、使用產能和觸發他們下訂單的需求之間存在時間差。這之間通常存在三到六個月的時間差。因此，半導體產量的復甦不會立即為我們帶來新的訂單。這其中將會存在幾個月的時間延遲。

For capacity based orders, do you expect more in the year 2004?

對於基於產能的訂單，您預計 2004 年會有更多訂單嗎？

Yes. If you believe the IT companies are going to continue to grow as I do, then at some point in the next 18 months we will see a lot of capacity orders coming in.

是的。如果您和我一樣相信 IT 公司將繼續成長，那麼在未來 18 個月的某個時候，我們將看到大量產能訂單湧入。

Okay I think from our side, let me thank you to the listeners for being on the line. And those who asked questions thanks a lot, searching questions as usual. Let me wish you all the best for 2003 and safe journey home. Thank you Mark.

好的，我想從我們的角度來說，我要感謝聽眾的收聽。那些提問的人非常感謝，像往常一樣尋找問題。我祝福你們2003年一切順利，一路平安。謝謝你，馬克。

Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the ASML Annual Results 2002. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2002 年年度業績發表會到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。