艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2002 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Annual Results 2002 Conference Call on the 16th January 2003. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions, If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please the * key, followed by the 0 on your push button phone. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Dunn. Please go ahead sir.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2003 年 1 月 16 日舉行的 ASML 2002 年度業績電話會議。在今天錄製的演示文稿中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。演講結束後，將有機會提問，如果任何與會者聽不清會議內容，請按*鍵，然後在您的按鍵電話上按0。我現在想把會議交給 Doug Dunn 先生。請先生繼續。

Thank you Mark. I guess I'm the only guy that is not on a listen-only mode so I will kick off. What I would like to do ladies and gentlemen and good morning, good afternoon and goodnight to you wherever you are in the world. Give a brief introduction, a few words from me and then since we want to limit this one-hour because we have things to do at 6.30 here in Central European time, I will pass it over to you for your no doubt searching questions.

謝謝馬克。我想我是唯一一個不在只聽模式下的人，所以我要開始了。女士們先生們，無論您身在何處，我想對你們說早安、午安和晚安。簡單介紹一下，我說幾句話，然後因為我們想限制這個一小時，因為我們在中歐時間 6.30 有事情要做，我將把它轉給你，以供你毫無疑問地尋找問題。

So let me begin then by picking a few of the major points of our annual results. Firstly, I want to touch on a few of the, I think, brighter spots in this rather gloomy high-tech environment that we are in. We at ASML increased our sales by 23% year-on-year in the face of a 20% decline in our sector, the capital equipment sector. So I think that for me re-enforces the message that our product is excellent and our customers like it.

因此，讓我從我們年度業績中的幾個要點開始。首先，我想談談我們所處的這個相當陰暗的高科技環境中的一些亮點。面對 20我們的部門，資本設備部門的下降百分比。因此，我認為這對我來說再次強化了我們的產品非常出色並且我們的客戶喜歡它的信息。

We, also by moving the mix of products towards the high-tech end, the 193 INN, the 2. INN and TWINSCAN increased our average selling price substantially. It's gone up in fact from 8.1m to 9.1m in the past 12 months. I stress that it is a mix effect and not an affect of our ability to get more money from the customers for the same product. Underlying that mix effect, there is indeed some quite severe price pressure and we are also impacted to some extent by that. And it is at this point a buyer's market as you appreciate. So we are pleased by those two market related instances.

我們還通過將產品組合向高科技端移動，193 INN、2. INN 和 TWINSCAN 大幅提高了我們的平均售價。事實上，在過去的 12 個月裡，它從 8.1m 上升到了 9.1m。我強調這是一種混合效應，而不是影響我們從同一產品的客戶那裡獲得更多資金的能力。在這種混合效應的背後，確實存在一些相當嚴重的價格壓力，我們也受到了一定程度的影響。正如您所欣賞的那樣，此時正是買方市場。因此，我們對這兩個與市場相關的實例感到滿意。

We have also performed gain market share. The news on this is not fully out because the statistics don't close for another month or two yet, but it is expected by those who forecast these things, they tell me at least, that we will have 50% or greater by value and 40% or greater by unit volume into the semiconductor market of Lithography units. Again, supporting our stance that customers increasingly buy from ASML.

我們也取得了市場份額。這方面的消息還沒有完全公佈，因為統計數據還沒有關閉一兩個月，但預測這些事情的人預計，他們至少告訴我，我們將擁有 50% 或更高的價值，並且40% 或更多的單位體積進入光刻單元的半導體市場。再次支持我們的立場，即客戶越來越多地從 ASML 購買。

And one of the public commitments we made a few months ago was to generate cash from our operations. We have generated a net Euros65m of cash and Peter is with me by the way, Peter Wennink, CFO and he will be able to comment on how that has been put together. The underlying value of that by the way is much greater as you will see as Peter explains that later on. So we are pleased with that performance and there is a lot more to come yet from the ability to squeeze our assets cash wise.

我們幾個月前做出的一項公開承諾是從我們的運營中產生現金。我們已經產生了 6500 萬歐元的淨現金，順便提一下，彼得和我在一起，首席財務官 Peter Wennink 將能夠評論這些現金是如何組合在一起的。順便說一句，正如彼得稍後解釋的那樣，您將看到它的潛在價值要大得多。因此，我們對這一表現感到滿意，並且還有更多的能力來自於明智地擠壓我們的資產現金。

We also took some decisions regarding our strategic future. As you know we are taking the rather difficult decision to reduce our employment level to give a reduction in the break-even point of the operation. We do this in the back of the fight. We have had two years of low sales as an industry. And the next six to nine months will not be much better. I don't think. Not much better and therefore we are taking a prudent step. Fortunately the efficiency improvements we have made in the past 12 months allow us to take those reductions in capacity without impacting the major programs. Our major programs R&D and customer support, applications, field service, etc. We can sustain at the present high level satisfaction, even in the face of the reduction in resources applied. So that's good news, that's bringing efficiencies out of the organization.

我們還就我們的戰略未來做出了一些決定。如您所知，我們正在做出相當艱難的決定來降低我們的就業水平，以降低運營的盈虧平衡點。我們在戰鬥的後面這樣做。作為一個行業，我們有兩年的低銷售額。而接下來的六到九個月也不會好很多。我不認為。好不了多少，因此我們正在採取謹慎的措施。幸運的是，我們在過去 12 個月中所做的效率改進使我們能夠在不影響主要項目的情況下應對產能的減少。我們的主要項目研發和客戶支持、應用、現場服務等。即使面對應用資源的減少，我們也可以維持目前的高滿意度。所以這是個好消息，可以提高組織的效率。

We also decided to close down our Track operation. Frankly it was not going to give us the product that we wanted quickly enough. So with a lot of regret we have closed that down. And we also decided to divest of our Thermal operation. That we will do through a sale sometime in the next couple of quarters or thereabouts. We have no precise time in mind. We have two objectives. Sell it into good and safe hands who will look after the installed customer base and allow the group to prosper. It has excellent products and I'm sure in the long-term will do very well indeed. And also to ensure of course that we get a decent price for it. If that takes us four months or eight months, well I'm easy on that.

我們還決定關閉我們的 Track 業務。坦率地說，它不會足夠快地為我們提供我們想要的產品。因此，我們非常遺憾地關閉了它。我們還決定剝離我們的熱力業務。我們將在未來幾個季度左右的某個時間通過銷售來做到這一點。我們沒有確切的時間。我們有兩個目標。將其出售給優秀且安全的人，他們將照顧已安裝的客戶群並讓集團繁榮發展。它有優秀的產品，我相信從長遠來看確實會做得很好。當然，還要確保我們得到一個體面的價格。如果這需要我們四個月或八個月，那我很容易。

They were the primary actions we took. To recap, gain market share; increase our sales despite the decline in the market; generate cash from ongoing operations with a lot more to come yet; divest of our thermal operations; it's non core and non strategic for us; close down our Track operation and reduce our break-even point by taking all kinds of costs out of our cost base, including unfortunately people costs. That kind of summarizes the management actions for the past 12 months.

它們是我們採取的主要行動。回顧一下，獲得市場份額；儘管市場下滑，但增加我們的銷售額；從正在進行的運營中產生現金，還有更多的未來；剝離我們的熱力業務；它對我們來說是非核心和非戰略性的；關閉我們的 Track 運營並通過從我們的成本基礎中扣除各種成本（包括不幸的人員成本）來降低我們的盈虧平衡點。這種總結了過去 12 個月的管理行動。

The numbers you will be aware of and speak for themselves. I will not go through those with you. Let me just make a quick comment on the industry as I view it right now and then I will pass over to you for questions. But so far as the sector is concerned, the semiconductor sector, it is going through I think a very gradual renaissance. If you look at the underlying sales growth quarter-on-quarter, it's positive. I think by the way this quarter, Q1 of 2003 will show a slightly negative dip. It's a seasonal industry and probably will dip slightly this quarter. But underlying that, there does seem to be a gradual improvement in the sales ability of semiconductors. So that is positive news. It gives, I think, good indication that the worst is now behind us. Although I am the last person to claim any false dawn here. It's going to be a very, very patchy six, nine, twelve months ahead of the industry, whilst it recovers from the two dark years behind us.

您將了解並為自己說話的數字。我不會和你一起經歷那些。讓我就我現在看到的這個行業做一個簡短的評論，然後我會轉給你提問。但就行業而言，半導體行業，我認為它正在經歷一個非常緩慢的複興。如果您查看潛在的銷售環比增長，這是積極的。順便說一句，我認為本季度，2003 年第一季度將出現輕微的負下降。這是一個季節性行業，本季度可能會略有下降。但在此基礎上，半導體的銷售能力似乎確實在逐步提高。所以這是一個積極的消息。我認為，這很好地表明最壞的情況已經過去。雖然我是最後一個在這裡聲稱任何虛假黎明的人。這將比這個行業提前六、九、十二個月非常非常零碎，同時它從我們身後的兩個黑暗年中恢復過來。

The average selling price rise has been coming down quite substantially for the past 18 months, even more actually. And therefore although the sales have been flat, the unit volume of course has been increasing. And that for us is good because basically we sell based on their volume of sales in units not dollars. And if you look at the unit sales of integrated circuits and discrete components, it is approaching the levels of 2000 and therefore the time will come for us to kind of try and guess when, but the time will come when that capacity is saturated and they start to place ever increasing quantities of orders. We haven't yet triggered that threshold and I don't know when the trigger point will be reached in time. I know in percentage of utilization but not in time. And therefore we wait patiently for that, doing the things that we do best, getting market share; convincing customers to use us; expanding our customer base; generating cash and taking our cost base down.

在過去的 18 個月裡，平均售價漲幅一直在大幅下降，實際上甚至更多。因此，儘管銷售額持平，但單位數量當然一直在增加。這對我們來說很好，因為基本上我們是根據他們的銷售量而不是美元來銷售的。如果你看一下集成電路和分立元件的單位銷售額，它正在接近 2000 年的水平，因此我們是時候嘗試猜測什麼時候了，但是當產能飽和的時候就會到來，他們開始下達越來越多的訂單。我們還沒有觸發那個閾值，也不知道什麼時候能及時達到觸發點。我知道利用率百分比，但不知道時間。因此，我們耐心等待，做我們最擅長的事情，獲得市場份額；說服客戶使用我們；擴大我們的客戶群；產生現金並降低我們的成本基礎。

One last point now on geographic markets. We have moved from one to two Japanese customers. The second one is secret unless you know something. I don't actually know who it is. And we have also established a strong presence now in China. We have sold in the past 12 months over 30 systems into China. Some of those fairly leading edge and some of them secondhand. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that China is rapidly becoming a very important market for this industry and we are determined to play our full role in that large continent. And at that, I think I will rest my initial introduction and pass back to Mark, our operator and controller so he can begin the question and answer process.

最後一點是關於地理市場的。我們已經從一個日本客戶轉移到兩個日本客戶。第二個是秘密，除非你知道什麼。我其實不知道是誰。我們現在也在中國建立了強大的影響力。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們向中國銷售了 30 多套系統。其中一些相當領先，其中一些是二手的。儘管如此，毫無疑問，中國正在迅速成為這個行業的一個非常重要的市場，我們決心在這個廣闊的大陸上發揮我們的全部作用。在那之後，我想我將結束我最初的介紹，然後將其傳回給我們的操作員和控制員 Mark，以便他可以開始問答過程。

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen at this time we will begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press * followed by 1 on your push button phone. If you wish to cancel your request, please press * followed by 2. Your questions will be answered in the order they are received. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections. One moment please for the first question. Your first question comes from Mr John Danju(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你，先生。女士們，先生們，此時我們將開始問答環節。如果您有任何問題，請在您的按鍵式電話上按 *，然後按 1。如果您想取消您的請求，請按 *，然後按 2。您的問題將按照收到的順序回答。如果您今天使用揚聲器設備，請在選擇之前拿起聽筒。請稍等一下第一個問題。您的第一個問題來自 John Danju(ph) 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Hi, this is John Donju(ph) from CSAB. Good afternoon. I had a quick question on gross margins for the first half of 2003. If I remember well the level in the second half on gross margin Lithography was around 27% excluding the one-off charge. And you are committed obviously to improve that margin given the restructuring taking place at the moment in Lithography. Is it fair to say that you could improve sequentially this gross margin even though volumes at the start of the year could be lower for the first half of 2003 compared to the second half of 2002?

嗨，我是 CSAB 的 John Donju（ph）。下午好。我有一個關於 2003 年上半年毛利率的簡短問題。如果我記得很清楚，光刻機下半年的毛利率水平約為 27%，不包括一次性費用。鑑於目前光刻技術正在進行重組，您顯然致力於提高利潤率。公平地說，儘管 2003 年上半年的銷量可能低於 2002 年下半年，但您可以按順序提高毛利率嗎？

John, you just mentioned the 27% but that includes the technical development credit repayments that we booked because of the TWINSCAN shipments in 2002, which were significant especially in the second half of the year. That accounted for another 2 1/2%* of gross margin. So that repayment will go away in 2003 and it will stop in the first half. So that will give a sequential improvement of the gross margin when we stop that of 2.5%, bringing it up to using your 27%, anywhere between 29% and 30%.

約翰，您剛剛提到了 27%，但其中包括我們因 2002 年 TWINSCAN 發貨而預定的技術開發信用還款，這在下半年尤其重要。這佔毛利率的另外 2 1/2%*。因此，這種還款將在 2003 年消失，並將在上半年停止。因此，當我們停止 2.5% 的毛利率時，毛利率將連續提高，使用您的 27%，介於 29% 和 30% 之間。

Given the fact that in 2002, the TWINSCAN part of sales was significant, but also included TWINSCANs that we shipped in the early stages of their life where they were at the bottom of the learning curve, you could expect a sequential growth of the gross margin because TWINSCAN will enter a period whereby those margins will improve due to learning curve efficiencies. So you could start off with the gross margins in the second half of this year taking away the [indecipherable] case and the one-time provision and it will be around the 29% level and then building up gradually sequentially over the year 2003. So it will be over 30% for the total year.

鑑於 2002 年 TWINSCAN 部分的銷售額非常可觀，但也包括我們在其生命早期階段（處於學習曲線底部）發貨的 TWINSCAN，您可以預期毛利率會連續增長因為 TWINSCAN 將進入一個時期，由於學習曲線的效率，這些利潤將提高。所以你可以從今年下半年的毛利率開始，去掉[難以辨認的]案例和一次性準備金，它將在 29% 左右的水平，然後在 2003 年逐步增加。所以全年將超過30%。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Miss Kirsten Parker. Please state your company name followed by your question. Thank you, Miss Parker, please go ahead.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自 Kirsten Parker 小姐。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。謝謝你，帕克小姐，請繼續。

Hello can you hear me?

你好，你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Oh, sorry about that. It's Kirsten Parker from Morgan Stanley. So just the first question, what was the accounts payable number for the second half of 2002? And when you mentioned during the analyst presentation, the service revenue numbers of about Euros300m. Did that include the service revenues associated with the Thermal and Track business? And then I have a follow-on question.

哦，對不起。是摩根士丹利的克爾斯滕·帕克。那麼第一個問題，2002年下半年的應付賬款是多少？當您在分析師演講中提到時，服務收入約為 3 億歐元。這是否包括與 Thermal and Track 業務相關的服務收入？然後我有一個後續問題。

The accounts payable number as part of the current liabilities at the end of the year in Euros was Euros213m.

年末作為流動負債一部分的以歐元計的應付賬款數量為 2.13 億歐元。

Okay. And then the service revenues of Euros300m approximately, does that include any for Track and Thermal?

好的。然後是大約 3 億歐元的服務收入，這包括 Track 和 Thermal 的收入嗎？

No.

不。

It's just Lithography.

這只是光刻。

Just Litho, great. And just on the follow-on question. In terms of your ASP expectations for the next 12 months, could you just discuss that a little bit further given that they have sort of increased from Euros8.9m to Euros9.1m. Do you expect them to continue to accelerate or improve quite so well over the next 12 months?

只是光刻，太棒了。只是關於後續問題。關於您對未來 12 個月的 ASP 預期，您能否進一步討論一下，因為它們已經從 890 萬歐元增加到 910 萬歐元。您是否期望它們在接下來的 12 個月內繼續加速或改進得如此之好？

Kirsten if you look back in history for 18 months and you will understand why that ASP has gone up, I know you know that. And we introduced TWINSCAN which had a dramatic increase on ASP because of the complexity of the product and the job it does. We also introduced simultaneously the High NA248 and the High NA193 lenses, which clearly because of their excellent performance commanded a higher price. I think therefore the very rapid ASP increase we have seen in the past year and a half has got a logical reason behind it but will not continue with that repidity. There will be new products for sure, like the 1200B when it comes out and the Microscan 7, but they will not alone be sufficient to maintain such a dramatic increase in average selling price in such a short space of time.

克爾斯滕，如果你回顧 18 個月的歷史，你就會明白為什麼 ASP 上漲了，我知道你知道這一點。我們引入了 TWINSCAN，由於產品的複雜性和它所做的工作，它的 ASP 顯著增加。我們還同時推出了High NA248和High NA193鏡頭，這顯然是因為它們的出色性能要求更高的價格。因此，我認為我們在過去一年半中看到的非常快速的 ASP 增長背後有一個合乎邏輯的原因，但不會繼續這種重複。肯定會有新產品出現，比如推出的 1200B 和 Microscan 7，但僅靠它們不足以在如此短的時間內保持平均售價的大幅增長。

So as you will expect with ASML, our products get more exotic and more capable and more expensive, but we have gone through if you like 18 months of real drive to bring out a brand new platform and that carried with it a higher ASP and you saw a steep angle of increase. That steep angle will not continue. So yes, if you strip away the underlying capacity business, which today isn't there. If you assume that it's not going to be there in the future, which I hope your wrong by the way there, but then ASP will increase more gently. What is likely to happen at some point of course is we will trigger the threshold for capacity expansion and we will get a load of orders for ordinary 200mm product and then you will find ASP probably coming down because of the mix issue.

因此，正如您對 ASML 所期望的那樣，我們的產品會變得更奇特、更強大、更昂貴，但如果您喜歡 18 個月的真正驅動力來推出一個全新的平台，並且它帶來更高的 ASP 和您看到一個陡峭的增加角度。那個陡峭的角度不會繼續下去。所以是的，如果你剝離了今天不存在的基礎容量業務。如果你認為它在未來不會出現，我希望你錯了，但是 ASP 會更溫和地增加。當然，在某個時候可能發生的是，我們將觸發產能擴張的門檻，我們將獲得大量普通 200mm 產品的訂單，然後您會發現 ASP 可能會因為混合問題而下降。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thanks Kirsten.

謝謝克爾斯滕。

Your next question comes from Mr Nicholas Goddard. Please go ahead sir.

您的下一個問題來自 Nicholas Goddard 先生。請先生繼續。

Yes, hi. I've got two questions. The first one is relative to the cash flow and it's probably for Peter. If you look at the July to December period, there was about Euros 47.5m positive coming in from over investing activities. I just wanted to know what this is referring to mainly. And then I have a follow-up question.

是的，你好。我有兩個問題。第一個是相對於現金流的，可能是針對彼得的。如果您查看 7 月至 12 月期間，過度投資活動帶來了大約 4750 萬歐元的正收益。我只是想知道這主要指的是什麼。然後我有一個後續問題。

Yes, okay. That has to do with the fact that we have taken out of our equipment line, which is part of the fixed asset lines those tools that we consider tools ready to be sold. So those were taken out and went to the inventory balance, where they were either there or they were part of the sale for the second half of the year. So when you look at your movement in your property plant and equipment line, you have of course your regular investments and what we have taken out are those tools that we have identified to be sold and they went to inventory.

是的，好的。這與我們已經從我們的設備線中取出的事實有關，這是固定資產線的一部分，我們認為這些工具已準備好出售。因此，這些被取出並進入庫存餘額，它們要么在那裡，要么是下半年銷售的一部分。因此，當您查看您在物業廠房和設備生產線中的移動時，您當然有您的常規投資，而我們取出的是那些我們已確定要出售並進入庫存的工具。

Okay, thanks very much. My second question relates to the backlog. Could you try to quantify how much of the backlog was impacted by cancellations and orders you may have excluded from your backlog. And also within that portion, grossly speaking, how much of that would be soft orders? And within that very specifically, if we look at the push out which materialized in August/September from Taiwan, are all of the orders remaining in the backlog as of December considered as soft and were therefore excluded off the backlog number you reported.

好的，非常感謝。我的第二個問題與積壓有關。您能否嘗試量化您可能已從積壓中排除的取消和訂單影響了多少積壓。而且在這部分中，粗略地說，其中有多少是軟訂單？並且非常具體地，如果我們查看 8 月/ 9 月從台灣實現的推出，那麼截至 12 月剩餘的所有訂單是否都被視為軟訂單，因此被排除在您報告的積壓數量之外。

The backlog we reported 103 systems for Euros 1.1b is a 12-month backlog. And it is as far as we can tell a healthy backlog. Indeed there are some orders which we have received in the past six months or so, which for various reasons, let's not go into those reasons, we would consider as soft backlog and we have not reported those to you. Now, it's clean as far as we can make it and therefore represents an honest commitment from customers and an honest commitment from us to satisfy that order.

我們報告的 1.1b 歐元的 103 個系統的積壓是 12 個月的積壓。據我們所知，這是一個健康的積壓工作。事實上，我們在過去六個月左右收到了一些訂單，出於各種原因，我們不再贅述，我們認為是軟積壓，我們沒有向您報告。現在，它在我們力所能及的範圍內是乾淨的，因此代表了客戶的誠實承諾和我們滿足訂單的誠實承諾。

Now, there are no guarantees in this world. No guarantees that existing orders may not also be cancelled. And no guarantees, by the way that we won't get a lot more orders, in fact we will. So you see backlog at the moment in time and we clearly will continue taking orders and we will ship, I believe, far more than that current backlog holds in store for us. But to answer your question, it's as good as we can get it without knowing every intimate detail of our customer. So we have taken out the ones that we consider or that a customer has advised us to consider as soft.

現在，這個世界上沒有任何保證。不保證現有訂單也不會被取消。並且不能保證，順便說一下，我們不會得到更多的訂單，事實上我們會的。所以你現在看到積壓，我們顯然會繼續接受訂單，我相信，我們將發貨，遠遠超過我們目前的積壓。但是要回答您的問題，我們可以在不了解客戶的每一個私密細節的情況下獲得它。因此，我們取出了我們認為或客戶建議我們認為是軟的那些。

Okay. Maybe another way to ask the question if I may, would be if you look at the additional orders you referred to many times during your last reporting season that you took in in June and July from Taiwan. How much of that has been shipped in the six months that followed?

好的。如果我可以的話，也許另一種問這個問題的方式是，如果您查看您在上一個報告季節中多次提到的額外訂單，這些訂單是您在 6 月和 7 月從台灣收到的。在接下來的六個月中，其中有多少已發貨？

Well the Taiwan base we received a lot in the timeframe up to June. In the timeframe since June, two things have happened to those. We have shipped some and some have been cancelled. A few, relative few, have been pushed out into next year, but with good intentions from that particular customer. So I think they are solid. And we took also in the second half orders from Korea, in which we have shipped, I don't know, many of them, I would say half, or two thirds round figures. And the balance of those are good orders from a reliable source are on the backlog for the first half of this year. So I think does that kind of answer your question?

好吧，我們在截至 6 月的時間內收到了很多台灣基地。在自 6 月以來的時間範圍內，發生了兩件事。我們已經發貨了一些，有些已被取消。少數，相對少數，已被推遲到明年，但出於該特定客戶的良好意願。所以我認為他們是堅實的。而且我們在下半年也接到了來自韓國的訂單，我們已經發貨了，我不知道，其中很多，我會說一半或三分之二的整數。其餘來自可靠來源的良好訂單在今年上半年積壓。所以我認為這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes that's perfect Doug, thanks very much.

是的，這是完美的道格，非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Jim Fontanelli. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Jim Fontanelli 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Jim Fontanelli at Arete Research. I just have a couple of questions. One again on services, I just wanted to clarify. I guess in absolute terms, services was flat half and half. But proportionally in the second half declined quite substantially. I just wanted to check what was sitting behind that, was it services given away to get hardware sales? And if so, what was the gross margin impact? And I'll hit you with the second question after that.

Arete Research 的 Jim Fontanelli。我只有幾個問題。再說一次服務，我只是想澄清一下。我想從絕對意義上來說，服務是一半一半。但下半年的比例下降幅度相當大。我只是想檢查一下背後是什麼，是為了獲得硬件銷售而放棄服務嗎？如果是這樣，毛利率的影響是什麼？之後我會問你第二個問題。

I'm still struggling with your first question, it's a pretty detailed one Jim. But thanks anyway just for giving my colleague such a test.

我還在為你的第一個問題苦苦掙扎，這是一個非常詳細的問題，吉姆。但無論如何，感謝我給我的同事這樣的測試。

Yes, you are about right. It's about half and half is in [indecipherable] terms the same number. But service is something that you sign up for the year. So it means that if your sales volume of your system shipment change, then your service revenue does not change. So it's a fixed contract for 12 months and that is why it's not strange that it is half-and-half about the same. The thing that does change in service revenues is the sale of field options. That has no relationship to the number of system sales that you do. So your relative percentage of sales that declines when your sale of your systems will increase.

是的，你是對的。大約有一半和一半是 [無法辨認] 相同的數字。但是服務是你一年註冊的東西。所以這意味著如果您的系統出貨量發生變化，那麼您的服務收入不會改變。因此，這是一份為期 12 個月的固定合同，這就是為什麼它幾乎相同並不奇怪。服務收入確實發生變化的是現場選項的銷售。這與您進行的系統銷售數量無關。因此，當您的系統銷售量增加時，您的銷售量相對百分比會下降。

Should we then extrapolate sequentially high service revenues for the first half of next year in anticipation of hardware sales for this half, sorry second half of 2002?

然後我們是否應該推斷出明年上半年的連續高服務收入，以預測今年上半年的硬件銷售，對不起 2002 年下半年？

Your service revenue, there is a single digit growth in your service revenue that we expect for the first half of 2003. It's a gradual growth because your install base grows and your tools come out of the warranty and you sign up service contracts and with that growth to grow with double-digit numbers.

您的服務收入，我們預計 2003 年上半年您的服務收入將出現個位數的增長。這是一個逐漸增長的過程，因為您的安裝基礎不斷增長，您的工具超出保修期，您簽訂了服務合同並隨之而來增長以兩位數增長。

Okay thanks-

好的謝謝-

So you have to take the absolute number Jim, not the relative number.

所以你必須取絕對數字 Jim，而不是相對數字。

Okay. The second question, you talked early this afternoon about reaching peak margins again.

好的。第二個問題，你今天下午早些時候談到了再次達到峰值利潤率。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to clarify the timeframe for that. Do you think it's possible this cycle, whenever this cycle is? And if so, what sort of volumes need to sit around that ability to gain peak operating margins again?

我只是想澄清一下時間範圍。你認為這個週期有可能嗎，無論這個週期是什麼時候？如果是這樣，需要什麼樣的銷量才能再次獲得峰值營業利潤率？

I was talking about this cycle. And I think we should be mixed between 250 and 300.

我說的是這個循環。我認為我們應該在 250 到 300 之間混合。

Excellent. Thanks.

出色的。謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Ucha Orgy(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Ucha Orgy 先生（ph）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Right. My name is Ucha Orgy(ph) from JP Morgan. Just a couple of questions for you. The first is, can you quantify the impact of the AT 1200 B2 in the order backlog, because B2 was launched in December and then you had a spike in your backlog in December. How much of that included AT 1200?

正確的。我的名字是來自摩根大通的 Ucha Orgy(ph)。只是問你幾個問題。首先是，您能否量化 AT 1200 B2 在訂單積壓中的影響，因為 B2 是在 12 月推出的，然後您在 12 月的積壓中出現了峰值。其中有多少包括 AT 1200？

Yes well I can fairly happily say, or unhappily say whichever, there is no connection between the spike in the backlog of the orders we booked in December and the announcement and launch of the tools. We do have a small and growing order book for that tool. It's an exotic tool as you can imagine. Only a few customers can take advantage of it in the short term. So the spike in December was not a function of that. The spike in December was several contracts coming to fulfillment for existing products. And I guess the backlog must contain 10%ish, 12% or so of 1200s right now.

是的，我可以相當高興地說，或者不高興地說，無論我們在 12 月預訂的訂單積壓激增與工具的宣布和推出之間沒有任何联系。對於該工具，我們確實有一個小型且不斷增長的訂單簿。您可以想像，它是一種奇特的工具。只有少數客戶可以在短期內利用它。因此，12 月的飆升並不是由此造成的。 12 月的高峰是現有產品的幾份合同即將履行。而且我猜現在積壓的訂單必須包含 10%、12% 左右的 1200 個。

Okay.

好的。

It's not insignificant, but it isn't responsible for that spike you saw in December.

這不是微不足道的，但它不是你在 12 月看到的峰值的原因。

Right, fair point. What was the ASP for that tool? I mean is that something that you are likely to discuss or give us a range of how much that tool will cost?

對，公平點。該工具的 ASP 是什麼？我的意思是您可能會討論或向我們提供該工具的成本範圍嗎？

Enter my negotiating hat now and how many do you want to buy and I'll tell you the price? I think the list price is around high teens, maybe Euros 19m ish. But for you we can do one for Euros 20m.

現在進入我的談判帽，你想買多少，我告訴你價格？我認為標價在十幾歲左右，也許是 1900 萬歐元左右。但是對於您，我們可以花 2000 萬歐元做一件。

I wish I could afford it. Just one more question. Post the restructuring, how will your current pricing affect the capacity at the moment. I know before the restructuring you told us it was about 400 units. Given this restructuring, has that affected your effective capacity or not?

我希望我能負擔得起。還有一個問題。發布重組後，您當前的定價將如何影響目前的產能。我知道在重組之前你告訴我們大約有 400 個單位。鑑於這次重組，這是否影響了您的有效產能？

Our effected capacity is not going to be significantly impacted by the restructuring program. When Peter mentioned earlier a number of 250 units, I think to the previous question, as a level at which we can achieve peak margins. And we can do that. We can do that many a year systems from our installed manufacturing base, factory space, most of the toolings in place and all of it. So there is no limitation there. We have got the resources and capacity. Don't forget in our peak year of 2000, we shipped around 400 systems, just under 400 systems. Although they were less complex than today. So the restructuring is being done through efficiency improvements, not by just taking out the base strength of the organization. So we can do the 250 or the 275 if and when it happens in the next, hopefully quarters, maybe a year or two.

我們受影響的產能不會受到重組計劃的重大影響。當 Peter 之前提到 250 個單位的數量時，我認為對於上一個問題，作為我們可以實現峰值利潤率的水平。我們可以做到這一點。我們可以從我們安裝的製造基地、工廠空間、大部分到位的工具以及所有這些中完成這麼多年的系統。所以那裡沒有限制。我們有資源和能力。不要忘記，在 2000 年的高峰年，我們運送了大約 400 個系統，不到 400 個系統。儘管它們沒有今天那麼複雜。因此，重組是通過提高效率來完成的，而不僅僅是消除組織的基礎實力。所以我們可以做 250 或 275，如果它發生在下一個，希望是幾個季度，可能是一兩年。

Right. Thank you very much.

正確的。非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Robert Mair. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Robert Mair 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, Bear Stearns & Co. Could you give us a little update as to break-even and when you are looking-- you talked at the analysts meeting of 160 unit break-even. Is that still your break-even expectation and maybe where and when we can sort of look at getting there? And a couple of other questions. Microscan 7, is that sort of end of life product ramping down as expected? Or is that ramping down faster than previously expected given the weakness in the market? And a third and last question. If you could update us as to where TWINSCAN is in terms of performance and your expectation of throughput on that product?

是的，貝爾斯登公司。您能否向我們提供一些關於收支平衡的最新信息，以及您何時查看——您在分析師會議上談到了 160 個單位的收支平衡。這仍然是您的收支平衡期望嗎？也許我們可以在何時何地實現目標？還有其他幾個問題。邁思肯 7，這種報廢產品是否按預期下降？或者考慮到市場疲軟，這種下降速度是否比之前預期的要快？第三個也是最後一個問題。您能否向我們介紹 TWINSCAN 在性能方面的最新情況以及您對該產品的吞吐量的期望？

Well let me take your easy one. Well the middle one first, the Microscan 7. We haven't ever shipped a Microscan 7. It's a brand new product and therefore is not by any means ramping down, just the opposite, it's ramping up. I think you are confusing the Microscan 5 Robert, which was a product which we ramped down a year and a half ago. So the 7 is a 157 tool. The world hasn't yet seen one. It's leading the pack and we introduced it this year. Now it is fair to say it's a R&D tool and won't sell like hot cakes. First of all very few customers can afford to move into 157 early, like this year, and secondly they will use it for R&D purposes, one or two tools. So we are talking a handful of tools only. But it isn't a ramp down, this is a ramp up of a brand new tool.

好吧，讓我輕鬆一下。首先是中間那個，Microscan 7。我們從來沒有發貨過 Microscan 7。它是一個全新的產品，因此絕不會下降，相反，它正在上升。我認為您對 Microscan 5 Robert 感到困惑，這是我們一年半前推出的產品。所以 7 是 157 工具。全世界還沒有見過。它處於領先地位，我們今年推出了它。現在可以公平地說它是一種研發工具，不會像熱蛋糕一樣暢銷。首先，很少有客戶能負擔得起像今年這樣提前進入 157，其次，他們會將其用於研發目的，一兩個工具。所以我們只談論少數工具。但這不是下降，這是一個全新工具的上升。

Secondly, the TWINSCAN performance is excellent. We have increased our mean time to failure. We have increased the overlay capability, the resolution capability. It is now producing in volume on many sites. We have shipped 61 systems in the year that's just finished. 40 of those in the last half. 59% of our backlog is for TWINSCAN product and customers buy them because they work extremely well. So the performance of TWINSCAN is now really beginning to hit the quick pace that we always said it would. And there is a lot more to go yet. We have got years and years worth of development improvements coming out every two or three months and new improvement on various aspects of the system throughout this decade. So it's getting good.

其次，TWINSCAN 性能出色。我們增加了平均失敗時間。我們增加了覆蓋能力，分辨率能力。它現在在許多網站上批量生產。在剛剛結束的一年中，我們已經交付了 61 個系統。下半場有40人。我們積壓的 59% 是 TWINSCAN 產品，客戶購買它們是因為它們工作得非常好。因此，TWINSCAN 的性能現在真正開始達到我們一直所說的快節奏。還有很多事情要做。在這十年中，我們每兩三個月就會進行多年的開發改進，並在系統的各個方面進行新的改進。所以情況越來越好。

And the first one was a break-even level. That depends on what the mix is and what the price is as you can imagine Robert. But the 160, you guys should not pin a number on this because it's a moving thing. We will transition from around 200 to 160 and we will go via 190 and 180 and 170. And we may come out at 160, 155 or 150. We will decide that as and when appropriate. So just assume that we will get through that number towards the end of this year.

第一個是盈虧平衡水平。這取決於您可以想像的羅伯特的組合和價格。但是160，你們不應該在這上面加上一個數字，因為它是一個動人的東西。我們將從 200 左右過渡到 160，我們將通過 190、180 和 170。我們可能會在 160、155 或 150 出現。我們將在適當的時候做出決定。因此，假設我們將在今年年底前完成這個數字。

Okay. But 160 is still your target?

好的。但是160仍然是您的目標嗎？

No, no. 160 is the number that we are going to transition through later this year.

不，不。 160 是我們將在今年晚些時候過渡的數字。

Though if we can get lower Robert, we will go lower.

雖然如果我們能降低羅伯特，我們就會降低。

Okay. And just a clarification on my question on Microscan 7. I meant the sort of the Microscan product line ramps down -

好的。只是澄清一下我關於 Microscan 7 的問題。我的意思是 Microscan 產品線的那種下降 -

Yes, it's the last of the Microscan range-- that's correct.

是的，這是 Microscan 系列中的最後一款——沒錯。

Yes. And I would assume that the number of expected orders from Microscan 7 haven't been reduced given the current market environments since those were R & D tools of a low volume that there are probably still about the same expectation level?

是的。而且我會假設，鑑於當前的市場環境，Microscan 7 的預期訂單數量並未減少，因為這些是小批量的研發工具，可能仍具有大致相同的預期水平？

Yes. Around a handful of products will sell this tool.

是的。大約有少數產品會銷售這個工具。

Okay. Great, thank you very much.

好的。太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you Robert.

謝謝羅伯特。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr John Pitzer. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 John Pitzer 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes it's Credit Suisse First Boston. Good afternoon guys. Just a couple of follow-up questions. First, relative to break-even. What kind of shipment forecast can you give us in the first half of the year. And relative to that shipment forecast, do you think you are going to building backlog in the Litho? And then I have a couple of follow-up.

是的，它是瑞士信貸第一波士頓。各位下午好。只是幾個後續問題。首先，相對於盈虧平衡。上半年可以給我們什麼樣的出貨量預測。相對於出貨量預測，你認為你會在 Litho 中積壓嗎？然後我有幾個跟進。

John, we are not giving you a shipment forecast in the first year. We are quite explicit for any period of time in fact. We are quite explicit on that. We have shared with you our backlog 103 systems, just over six of them acquired in the first half with another five and a half months to go, so that will build obviously. 40 in the second half and that will build obviously, so will increase by close-- there's a lot of noise on the line, it's not from me I can assure you.

約翰，我們不會給你第一年的出貨量預測。事實上，我們在任何時期都是相當明確的。我們對此非常明確。我們已經與您分享了我們積壓的 103 個系統，其中超過 6 個是在上半年獲得的，另外還有五個半月的時間，所以這顯然會建立起來。下半場40，這顯然會增加，所以會隨著接近而增加——線上有很多噪音，我不能向你保證。

Doug I apologize, I'm sitting in an airport right now.

道格：對不起，我現在正坐在機場。

Then I suggest that you [inaudible] the conference. I suggest you sign off or something. We can't hear you.

然後我建議你[聽不清] 會議。我建議你簽字什麼的。我們聽不見你的聲音。

[inaudible].

[聽不清]。

Okay, let me try again. We will build the backlog through the year and we are not giving guidance on shipments because neither you nor I, nor anyone else knows whether this market will grow rapidly, flatten out or decline gently. And until we know that, then forecasting is just like picking next week's lottery number.

好吧，讓我再試一次。我們將全年積壓積壓，我們不會就出貨量提供指導，因為你、我和其他任何人都不知道這個市場是否會快速增長、趨於平緩或溫和下降。在我們知道這一點之前，預測就像選擇下週的彩票號碼一樣。

Doug, when you look at your breakeven targets, how much more restructuring charges could we expect? Do you think most of the restructuring charges are behind you at this point?

道格，當您查看您的盈虧平衡目標時，我們預計會有多少重組費用？您認為此時大部分重組費用都已經過去了嗎？

Most are behind us. There will be some in this year because of legislation in Europe for laying people off. Clearly we won't incur the lay-off costs until this year, but it's a small amount. It's around Euros 10m or even less than Euros 10m. So it's not let me say material in that sense, although it's not insignificant either. So no, we don't except any more restructuring charges, other than the ongoing costs of that less than Euros 10m I just mentioned this year.

大多數都在我們身後。由於歐洲的裁員立法，今年會有一些。很明顯，我們要到今年才會產生裁員成本，但這只是一筆小數目。大約在 1000 萬歐元左右，甚至低於 1000 萬歐元。所以我不能在這個意義上說物質，儘管它也不是微不足道的。所以不，除了我今年剛剛提到的不到 1000 萬歐元的持續成本之外，我們不會再收取任何重組費用。

And then the last question Doug. In the second half of 2002, it looks like you guys saw customer recognition on the TWINSCAN a little bit more aggressively than you had anticipated. I am assuming that you guys hit internal customer requirements more quickly. And then you mentioned earlier that some of the gross margin pressure in the second half of the year was due to TWINSCANs that were shipped early in the first half, but not recognized them. I'm kind of curious where do TWINSCAN gross margins sit going into the first half of the year and do you expect to see margin improvement in the first half of 2003 on the gross margin side? Thank you.

然後是最後一個問題道格。在 2002 年下半年，看起來你們在 TWINSCAN 上看到的客戶認可度比您預期的要激進一些。我假設你們更快地達到內部客戶的要求。然後你之前提到下半年的一些毛利率壓力是由於上半年早期出貨的TWINSCAN，但沒有識別它們。我有點好奇 TWINSCAN 的毛利率在今年上半年處於什麼位置，您預計 2003 年上半年毛利率方面的利潤率會有所改善嗎？謝謝你。

Okay well yes. Good set of questions there. TWINSCAN gross margins-- it's like any of our products. When the volume is right and Peter has mentioned that volume, 250 systems in total we will hit greater than 40% margins, gross margins on all our products including TWINSCAN. Now of course the volume is less than that right now, so we carry under recoveries because of that. And it is still an early tool but as you have noticed now we don't have to observe SAB101 and defer the income because the customer acceptance has become more natural and normal like an ordinary tool. That tells you that the product is improving, is being installed more quickly, it's coming up to it's full capabilities more quickly. Such that we can with confidence, the auditor's support by the way, take revenue recognition on the day that we ship as opposed to waiting for customer factory acceptance.

好吧好吧。那裡有很好的問題。 TWINSCAN 毛利率——就像我們的任何產品一樣。當數量合適並且彼得提到該數量時，總共 250 個系統我們將達到超過 40% 的利潤率，包括 TWINSCAN 在內的所有產品的毛利率。當然，現在的交易量比現在要少，因此我們因此進行了回收。而且它仍然是一個早期的工具，但正如您現在所注意到的，我們不必觀察 SAB101 並推遲收入，因為客戶接受度已經像普通工具一樣變得更加自然和正常。這告訴您該產品正在改進，正在更快地安裝，它正在更快地達到其全部功能。這樣我們就可以放心地在審計員的支持下，在我們發貨當天進行收入確認，而不是等待客戶工廠驗收。

The gross margin is a function of two things. It's the volume and we have talked about that and you know the issue there and that will be fixed with the market and how market kind of share increases. And it's the fact that still it's only a year and a quarter old and a very complex tool and we are still going through the learning curve and so are our suppliers. But we have urgent programs with them and this year will see the benefits of some of the programs coming through. So that gross margin will continue to improve through this year, but it will take also volume to finally get us through to those 40% plus levels that we can reach with this product.

毛利率是兩件事的函數。這是數量，我們已經討論過了，你知道那裡的問題，這將隨著市場以及市場份額如何增加而得到解決。事實上，它仍然只有一年零四分之一的時間，並且是一個非常複雜的工具，我們仍在經歷學習曲線，我們的供應商也是如此。但我們與他們有緊急計劃，今年將看到一些計劃的好處。因此，今年毛利率將繼續提高，但也需要銷量才能最終使我們達到使用該產品可以達到的 40% 以上的水平。

Yes, I can add to that John. We started those margins at low 20s. We improved through the high 20s and we have to go into the 30s in the year 2003.

是的，我可以添加到那個約翰。我們從 20 年代的低利潤率開始。我們在 20 多歲時取得了進步，我們必須在 2003 年進入 30 多歲。

Great. Thanks guys.

偉大的。多謝你們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ali Imrani(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Ali Imrani(ph)。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes I am with CIBC World Markets. Hi Doug, hi Peter. I was hoping you could give us the mix of shipments in the second half of last year, including you mentioned 40 TWINSCAN. But could you give us a breakdown of that by light wave, 193, 248 [indecipherable] as well as the balance in terms of 248 versus [indecipherable].

是的，我在 CIBC World Markets。嗨道格，嗨彼得。我希望你能給我們去年下半年的出貨組合，包括你提到的 40 TWINSCAN。但是，您能否按光波、193、248 [無法辨認] 以及 248 與 [無法辨認] 的平衡給我們細分。

Ali, yes we can. If you log onto our website, you will see it in full color before you. But since you are probably not in a position to do that this very second, we will try to give it to you just over the phone as well. [indecipherable] webcast.

阿里，是的，我們可以。如果您登錄我們的網站，您將在您面前看到它的全彩。但是，由於您現在可能無法做到這一點，因此我們也會嘗試通過電話將其提供給您。 [無法辨認] 網絡廣播。

I mean as of now all those numbers will be part of the presentation that will be on the website, including the backlog numbers. But for your convenience I am going to give it to you. It's on the second half, 200mm [indecipherable] 15 scanners, 42 428nm scanners, 8 193nm scanners which brings the total 200mm scanners up to 65. And for 300mm, 6 [indecipherable] scanners, 19 248 scanners, 16 193 scanners making a total of 41 for 300mm. Total scanners of 106 and 4 new [indecipherable] scanners, bringing total new systems to 110 and then 17 used systems, all being steppers bringing the total of [indecipherable].

我的意思是，到目前為止，所有這些數字都將成為網站上演示文稿的一部分，包括積壓的數字。但是為了您的方便，我將把它給您。在下半年，200mm [無法辨認] 15 台掃描儀、42 428nm 掃描儀、8 193nm 掃描儀使 200mm 掃描儀總數達到 65 台。對於 300mm，6 [無法辨認] 掃描儀、19 248 台掃描儀、16 193 台掃描儀總計300mm 為 41。共有 106 台掃描儀和 4 台新的 [無法辨認] 掃描儀，使新系統總數達到 110 台，然後是 17 台使用過的系統，所有這些都是步進器，總計 [無法辨認]。

Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Looking at one of the questions that was asked before. How many cancellations did you see to your gross bookings in unit terms in the second half of last year? And I was hoping qualitatively you could give us an idea of where in the tail end of the year, the bookings have accelerated and what activity you have seen or expect to see here in January?

非常感謝，我很感激。看著之前提出的問題之一。去年下半年，按單位計算，您的總預訂量取消了多少？我希望您能定性地告訴我們，在今年年底的哪個地方，預訂量有所增加，以及您在一月份看到或期望看到的活動是什麼？

I'll just give you an estimate and it really is a pretty crude one if any one of my colleagues here have a better number, then yell out. I would estimate that we took around 30 or 40, maybe 40 or 50 cancellations, gross cancellations in the second half of last year. And we took obviously orders, some orders to replace them but not totally, because the backlog's down. Does that answer that question good enough for you, Ali?

我只是給你一個估計，如果我這裡的任何一位同事有更好的數字，那真的是一個相當粗略的估計，然後大聲喊叫。我估計我們在去年下半年取消了大約 30 或 40 次，可能是 40 或 50 次取消，總取消。我們顯然接受了一些訂單，一些訂單來替換它們，但不是全部，因為積壓的訂單減少了。阿里，這對你來說是否足夠好回答這個問題？

Yes, it does. Thank you.

是的，它確實。謝謝你。

It's the closest I can get to that one. The cancellations have trickled down towards zero now, so let's hope that stays as it was. It was zero also in May and June of last year. So we have learned that one haven't we? And the second question was?

這是我能得到的最接近的那個。現在取消量已經下降到零，所以讓我們希望它保持原樣。去年 5 月和 6 月也為零。所以我們已經知道了，不是嗎？第二個問題是？

The second question was the order trends late in the quarter in December as well as the trends that you are seeing here in January. I am thinking in particular the de-ram space where you have a very strong exposure and seems to be leading the foundry reinvestments. And where you expect to see the impact of some of the budgets, some of the existing new customers are penetrating to your order book?

第二個問題是 12 月季度末的訂單趨勢以及您在 1 月份看到的趨勢。我特別在想你有很強的曝光率並且似乎正在引領鑄造再投資的 de-ram 空間。您希望看到一些預算的影響，一些現有的新客戶正在滲透到您的訂單簿中？

I think it's fair to say and no secret that the last quarter of last year, the sector which saved us, if you like, from the dramatic cancellations from some of our foundry customers was the de-ram sector, particularly Korea. They are still going strong, negotiating and placing orders for 200mm product. I believe that the foundries will come back to life, if that's the correct expression, relatively soon in months rather than quarters from now, because if you look at their utilization at the leading edge, it's pretty good. Although overall, they still have a lot of spare capacity. And frankly for January we have been so busy getting this road show together, I have not actually looked, I think our customers are still taking a long vacation in January actually, still on the ski slopes I suspect. I think there is always a lull in the first few weeks. There are a few big bits of business lurking around that we are not going to talk about, but which we are going to be aggressively going for. I think actual bookings taken in the first couple of weeks of the year, you can count it on less than one hand I'm sure.

我認為可以公平地說，也不是什麼秘密，去年最後一個季度，如果你願意的話，我們的一些代工客戶大幅取消的行業是 de-ram 行業，尤其是韓國。他們仍在繼續進行 200 毫米產品的談判和下訂單。我相信代工廠會恢復生機，如果這是正確的表達方式，在幾個月而不是幾個季度之後相對較快，因為如果你看看它們的利用率處於領先地位，那就相當不錯了。儘管總體而言，他們仍然有很多閒置產能。坦率地說，一月份我們一直在忙著把這個路演放在一起，我還沒有看，我想我們的客戶實際上在一月份還在放長假，我懷疑還在滑雪場上。我認為在最初的幾周里總會有一段平靜。有一些我們不打算談論的大生意潛伏著，但我們將積極爭取。我認為在今年的前幾週進行的實際預訂，我敢肯定，你可以用不到一隻手來指望它。

Great. And one final question. You mentioned China several times. You obviously have a very strong install base there and a leading position at the largest foundry in that market that's now moving to two new fabs in Beijing. And I'm hoping you can give us some idea of what the regulatory issues might be in terms of shipping 300mm to that geography? And where you see the strength of orders from China continuing this year?

偉大的。最後一個問題。你多次提到中國。您顯然在那裡擁有非常強大的安裝基礎，並且在該市場最大的代工廠中處於領先地位，該代工廠現在正在北京轉移到兩個新工廠。我希望你能給我們一些關於將 300 毫米運輸到該地區的監管問題的想法？您認為今年中國訂單的強勁勢頭在哪裡？

On the regulatory conditions that apply, you mean the Wassenaar Agreement. I'm not the leading expert on that and I've yet to find anyone who is. I don't think there are any. But it's basically not a wafer size regulation, it's a wave length regulation. Taiwan in fact has placed on it's companies a wafer size regulation, but that was just for I guess for local reasons in Taiwan, political reasons. The issues are wavelength and resolving capability and that's where the Wassenaar Agreement put certain limitations on. All I can tell you is that we ship always with European Union agreement for our products and therefore we comply with the interpretation of the Wassenaar Agreement in every sense. And so far we have not been stopped from shipping anything that yet that they have asked for.

在適用的監管條件下，您指的是《瓦森納協議》。我不是這方面的領先專家，我還沒有找到任何人。我認為沒有。但這基本上不是晶圓尺寸規定，而是波長規定。台灣實際上已經對其公司進行了晶圓尺寸規定，但我猜這只是出於台灣當地的原因，政治原因。問題是波長和分辨能力，而這正是瓦森納協議所施加的某些限制。我只能告訴你的是，我們始終按照歐盟協議運送我們的產品，因此我們在各個方面都遵守瓦森納協議的解釋。到目前為止，我們還沒有停止運送他們要求的任何東西。

Yes, and yes I do believe strongly in China. Huge population, dramatically low cost base, you know engineers are a factor of 10 less there than in the USA and Western Europe. And great engineers, lots of them. And a lot of incentives from governments local and national, great work ethic, huge demand for semiconductors internally and a huge demand to export them. And therefore the next 15 years I think, I believe that China will be alongside the Japans, the Taiwans and the USAs of this world in vying for the top slot for making semiconductors.

是的，是的，我確實堅信中國。人口眾多，成本基礎極低，你知道那裡的工程師比美國和西歐少 10 倍。還有很多優秀的工程師。以及來自地方和國家政府的許多激勵措施、良好的職業道德、內部對半導體的巨大需求以及出口半導體的巨大需求。因此，我認為接下來的 15 年，我相信中國將與世界上的日本、台灣和美國並駕齊驅，爭奪半導體製造的頭把交椅。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mr Philip Lee. Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Philip Lee 先生。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

This is Jay Dana from JP Morgan. Good afternoon guys.

這是摩根大通的傑伊·達納。各位下午好。

Hello Jay.

你好，傑伊。

Hi Jay.

嗨，傑。

A couple of questions. Doug, on the sale of the ThermCo business. Can you kind of give us some sort of sense as to what would be a reasonable expectation as to what you can bring in for that? And then I've got two follow-ups.

幾個問題。 Doug，出售 ThermCo 業務。你能給我們一些關於你可以帶來什麼合理期望的感覺嗎？然後我有兩個跟進。

How much would you offer Jay? We're realistic here. You have may have noticed and I'm sure you have Jay from the background. This is not exactly a boom market for semiconductor CAPEX equipment nor for mergers and acquisitions of such companies. I think, well-- because we are negotiating and discussing with a multiple group of people who are looking to buy it, I'm not actually going to give away too much of our negotiation tactics here. But we are talking multiple 10s of millions, but probably not over Euro100m, okay?

你會給傑伊多少錢？我們在這裡很現實。你可能已經註意到了，我相信你有 Jay 的背景。對於半導體 CAPEX 設備和此類公司的併購而言，這並不完全是一個繁榮的市場。我認為，因為我們正在與一群想要購買它的人進行談判和討論，所以我實際上不會在這裡透露太多我們的談判策略。但我們說的是數百萬，但可能不會超過 1 億歐元，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That's as good as I'm going to tell you given that we are negotiating as we speak almost. And we do have people who are interested. Some are strategically interested because they make equipment. Others are financial houses who see an ability here to buy it, dress it up and sell it on I guess later. And surprisingly the negotiations are pretty strong as we speak. But we also have a second objective Jay. And I say this because of our install base of customers. Those customers buy from us as well as [indecipherable] also litho tools. We have an obligation, a right and expectation by them to make sure that we do sell it into good hands. So we want a customer and it may not be highest bidder, but we want someone to buy from us this company with the full intention of making it successful and supporting the existing install base and bringing out these new ALD products that they have that are so good. So we may not take the highest bidder, we may take the one that's got the best offering from a support and ongoing point of view.

這和我要告訴你的一樣好，因為我們幾乎是在談判的時候說話的。我們確實有感興趣的人。有些人對戰略感興趣，因為他們製造設備。其他人是金融公司，他們認為這裡有能力購買、裝飾和出售，我猜以後再賣。令人驚訝的是，正如我們所說，談判非常激烈。但我們還有第二個目標傑。我這麼說是因為我們的客戶群。那些客戶從我們這裡購買以及 [難以辨認的] 光刻工具。他們有義務、權利和期望確保我們確實將其出售給好人。所以我們想要一個客戶，它可能不是最高出價者，但我們希望有人從我們這裡購買這家公司，並完全打算讓它成功並支持現有的安裝基礎，並推出他們擁有的這些新的 ALD 產品。好的。因此，我們可能不會接受出價最高的人，我們可能會接受從支持和持續的角度來看提供最佳報價的人。

Okay. And then the follow-on is, if you look at the customers that you are negotiating with right now in terms of companies, chip makers that are going to place orders in the next two to three months, would you characterize that as a small subset of strategic buyers or a broader base of chip makers from multiple end markets? And then the last question is you mentioned that pricing is challenging earlier in your comments. Could you give us a little granularity on that please?

好的。然後接下來是，如果你從公司、芯片製造商的角度來看你現在正在與之談判的客戶，它們將在未來兩到三個月下訂單，你會將其描述為一小部分嗎？戰略買家還是來自多個終端市場的更廣泛的芯片製造商基礎？最後一個問題是您在評論中提到定價具有挑戰性。你能給我們一些細節嗎？

I'll begin with the pricing one actually because that's the easy one to answer actually, Jay. And one I'll let my colleagues think about for a second or two. I'm not sure I can be very granular with the pricing. Well let's be quite frank here. Although we have-- let me say the best tools available-- I think that's probably not a contestable issue, unless you work for one of two Japanese companies. Given we have the best tools, you would think it's easy to get any price we want. That isn't the case. Customers can always hold off making their purchases another month or two and we are quite frankly very hungry for orders. And very occasionally therefore, just to get the order in the house, so we can actually turn it into steel and glass, we will offer a point or two of more discount than we are kind of normally going to do when we are full. And also the competition has good pieces of paper. They can always talk about in nine months time, they will have a wonderful high flying, whiz bang product which may never happen, but customers can use that to put the fear of god into my sales guys and me and always get a point or two of discount extra above and beyond our normal level of discounting.

我將從定價開始，因為這實際上很容易回答，傑伊。還有一個我會讓我的同事考慮一兩秒鐘。我不確定我能否對定價非常精細。好吧，讓我們在這裡坦率地說。雖然我們有——讓我說最好的工具——我認為這可能不是一個有爭議的問題，除非你為兩家日本公司之一工作。鑑於我們擁有最好的工具，您會認為很容易獲得我們想要的任何價格。事實並非如此。客戶總是可以推遲一兩個月購買，坦率地說，我們非常渴望訂單。因此，非常偶爾，為了得到訂單，我們實際上可以把它變成鋼鐵和玻璃，我們會提供比我們通常在滿員時多一兩點的折扣。而且比賽也有好紙。他們總能在九個月的時間裡談論，他們將有一個美妙的高空飛行，驚人的產品，這可能永遠不會發生，但客戶可以用它來讓我和我的銷售人員對上帝的恐懼，總能得到一兩分超出我們正常折扣水平的額外折扣。

So we have probably seen discounts go from the low teens towards the high teens in percentage terms. And occasionally more than that and sometimes less than that. It's not distressing but it is a sign of the times and we have to be aware that that's the case right now and will remain the case I think this year. So even although we boast the best products and have the best products, we are not immune from the ability of smart buyers to really wring out of us every last cent that's possible.

因此，我們可能已經看到折扣從低青少年到高青少年的百分比。有時比這多，有時比這少。這並不令人痛苦，但這是時代的標誌，我們必須意識到現在就是這種情況，我認為今年仍將如此。因此，即使我們擁有最好的產品並擁有最好的產品，我們也不能倖免於精明的買家真正榨取我們每一分錢的能力。

Okay and then on the number of customers in the loop? And then finally do you expect to ship any TWINSCANs in 2003 with any lasers other than [Symer]?

好的，然後是循環中的客戶數量？最後，您是否希望在 2003 年使用除 [Symer] 以外的任何激光器出貨任何 TWINSCAN？

Since you mention TWINSCAN Jay, can I just come back to your first part of the question? Because the 300mm discounts are much less than those I've mentioned, that's an average. They are towards the single digit top end, very low double digit numbers percentage discounts.

既然你提到了 TWINSCAN Jay，我可以回到你問題的第一部分嗎？因為 300 毫米的折扣比我提到的要少得多，所以這是平均水平。他們接近個位數的高端，非常低的兩位數百分比折扣。

I don't know. Yes, I guess we are going to ship TWINSCAN with other lasers. I am pretty sure that we do. Yes, there's nods round the table and my colleagues say yes. So [indecipherable] and [indecipherable], good for you guys. And in addition bring some competition into the laser business.

我不知道。是的，我想我們將與其他激光器一起運送 TWINSCAN。我很確定我們會這樣做。是的，大家都在點點頭，我的同事們說是的。所以[無法辨認]和[無法辨認]，對你們有好處。此外，還給激光業務帶來了一些競爭。

Can you give a sense as to what percentage that would be? And then just some comments on the number of customers in the bookings loop?

你能知道那將是多少百分比嗎？然後只是對預訂循環中的客戶數量的一些評論？

I can't give you any intelligence into the percentage. I think it's still going to be high for [Symer] whether it's 70, 80, I don't know but high anyway. The customer loop, give me that again, Jay, what are you wanting there?

我不能給你任何關於百分比的情報。我認為無論是 70 還是 80，[Symer] 仍然會很高，我不知道，但無論如何都很高。客戶循環，再給我一次，傑伊，你想要什麼？

I'm just kind of curious. In terms of the customers, the chipmakers that you are negotiating with for bookings to be placed in the first quarter let's say. Okay? Are you looking at a small number of strategic chipmakers, like maybe Intel, Samsung, IBM a few others? Or are you looking at a broad base of chipmakers from many different end market segments?

我只是有點好奇。就客戶而言，假設您正在與芯片製造商談判，以便在第一季度進行預訂。好的？您是否正在關注少數戰略性芯片製造商，比如英特爾、三星、IBM 等等？或者您是否正在尋找來自許多不同終端細分市場的廣泛的芯片製造商基礎？

Yes. It's broad based actually. I think your question is are only one or two guys buying round here? The answer is no. One or two guys are buying a lot, but there is a lot of guys buying you know ones and twos. So we go for all of them. Everything that moves right now we are shooting at it. So we have got a broad base of customers that we are currently discussing for bookings to be taken this quarter. If you look at the distribution by units, then may be there is three or four of those guys who account for 70% of the number of units we will take. But there are a lot of customers out there who do want to buy one or two.

是的。它實際上是廣泛的。我想你的問題是只有一兩個人在這裡買東西嗎？答案是不。一兩個人買了很多，但有很多人買你知道的。所以我們都去。現在所有移動的東西我們都在射擊它。因此，我們目前正在討論本季度預訂的廣泛客戶群。如果你看單位的分佈，那麼可能有三四個人占我們將採取的單位數量的 70%。但是有很多客戶確實想購買一兩個。

Gotcha. Thanks very much for your help, appreciate it.

明白了。非常感謝您的幫助，不勝感激。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr Matt Gable. Please go ahead sir.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Gable 先生。請先生繼續。

I was wondering if you could talk about bookings linearity in the second half, particularly in the last calendar quarter of the year?

我想知道您是否可以談論下半年的預訂線性度，特別是在今年最後一個日曆季度？

I'm glad you mentioned that because we have with us our EVP of Sales and I'm always mentioning to him this bloody booking of linearity, which is not linear at all I might tell you and I'm blaming him for that. In defense of him he tells me the customers are saying this as well. The booking linearity for a company like ASML, where we ship let's say around 200 systems a year in this kind of difficult times, like last year, is very, very lumpy indeed. I try to allude to this by giving you a backlog slide by month and you will it on our web cast as well. And in a way, that tells you it's not just bookings, it's backlogs.

我很高興你提到這一點，因為我們有我們的銷售執行副總裁，我總是向他提到這种血腥的線性預訂，我可能會告訴你這根本不是線性的，我為此責備他。為了替他辯護，他告訴我顧客也這麼說。對於像 ASML 這樣的公司來說，我們在這種困難時期每年運送大約 200 個系統，就像去年一樣，其預訂線性確實非常非常不穩定。我試圖通過按月為您提供積壓幻燈片來暗示這一點，您也會在我們的網絡廣播中使用它。在某種程度上，這告訴你這不僅僅是預訂，還有積壓。

So it's a function of what we have shipped, what we've booked and what's been cancelled-- making the bookings if you like. But you can see it's very lumpy. If you look at the underlying bookings underneath that, it's even lumpier. You know we only negotiate with Samsung, the annual wrestling match once a year, take a large order and then we book nothing from them for maybe six to nine months. So we go into a drought period of Samsung orders. We're still living off their backlog. And that is true for most of our big customers, they negotiate annual buys and then we ship off and we bill against it for the year. It isn't as though we are selling MacDonald hamburgers with a statistical probability of selling 3m a day or whatever. So you would not like to see our bookings linearity because it's anything but linear.

因此，這是我們已發貨、已預訂和已取消的功能的函數——如果您願意，可以進行預訂。但是你可以看到它非常粗糙。如果您查看其下方的潛在預訂，它甚至更加笨拙。你知道我們只與三星談判，每年一次的年度摔跤比賽，接受大訂單，然後我們可能在六到九個月內沒有從他們那裡預訂任何東西。所以我們進入了三星訂單的枯竭期。我們仍然靠他們的積壓為生。這對我們的大多數大客戶來說都是如此，他們協商年度購買，然後我們發貨，我們針對這一年開具賬單。這並不是說我們在銷售麥當勞漢堡包的統計概率是每天賣出 300 萬個或其他什麼。所以你不希望看到我們的預訂線性，因為它不是線性的。

Right. Did you see any discernible trend up or down as you exited the year?

正確的。當您結束這一年時，您是否看到任何明顯的上升或下降趨勢？

As usual at the year-end we saw a bit of an uptake because customers have year-ends and we have year-ends and there is a fine focus. For us to get the orders in and for the customers to get the orders placed before their bosses or CEOs cut back their CAPEX.

像往常一樣，在年底我們看到了一些吸收，因為客戶有年終，我們有年終，而且有一個很好的焦點。讓我們獲得訂單，讓客戶在老闆或首席執行官削減資本支出之前獲得訂單。

Right.

正確的。

It's always a kind of nerve wracking last three days in the year as we get these negotiations concluded and they hang out as long as they can and we hang out as long as we can and then it finally comes through on Christmas Eve.

一年中的最後三天總是令人傷腦筋，因為我們結束了這些談判，他們盡可能地閒逛，我們也盡可能地閒逛，然後終於在平安夜結束了。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Steven Puckerwitz(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Steven Puckerwitz(ph)。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, it's Steve Puckerwitz(ph), CIBC World Markets. Just a real quick question. Did I hear correctly your anticipating gross margins to be on a run rate of approximately 30% by year-end 2003? Was that correct or have I just -

是的，我是 CIBC 世界市場的 Steve Puckerwitz(ph)。只是一個真正的快速問題。我沒聽錯您預計到 2003 年底毛利率將達到大約 30% 嗎？那是對的還是我只是——

It's 30% in 2003, where it will end is a function of the ultimate business volume and of some of the elements that we discussed over this call which is the price pressure that we are seeing. But all our target is to be over 30%.

2003 年是 30%，它將結束於最終業務量以及我們在這次電話會議中討論的一些因素，即我們所看到的價格壓力。但我們所有的目標都是超過 30%。

And a run rate by year-end. Okay. Thank you very much.

和年底的運行率。好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Vocara(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 David Vocara(ph)。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, thanks for taking the call from Q Investments in the US. I would just like to understand, given the fact that you have laid out in your cash flows and your P&L Statement the discontinued operations, which appears to have been a very heavy cash drain this year, Euro127m I reckon for the full year. I mean once you sell the Thermal operation then you discontinue or you are actually in the process of shutting down Track-- I mean are those costs essentially going to go away pretty much overnight or are they still going to be a drain within the next six months or even the next twelve months from those? How is that going to impact your cash flow? Can you give some details on that?

是的，感謝您接聽美國 Q Investments 的電話。我想了解一下，鑑於您已在現金流量和損益表中列出了已終止的業務，這似乎是今年非常嚴重的現金流失，我估計全年為 1.27 億歐元。我的意思是，一旦您出售了 Thermal 業務，那麼您就停止了，或者您實際上正在關閉 Track——我的意思是，這些成本基本上會在一夜之間消失，還是在接下來的六年中它們仍然會成為消耗品幾個月甚至接下來的十二個月？這將如何影響您的現金流？你能提供一些細節嗎？

Track is essentially over and out. There will be a small cost coming through in the next few months, but nothing of significance, nothing material. Thermal of course keeps going until we sell it. And as you know we don't when that will be. We have given you some crude estimate of between four and eight months as a likely time scale, it could be sooner, it could be later.

軌道基本上結束了。在接下來的幾個月裡，會有一小筆費用，但沒有什麼重要的，沒有什麼實質性的。熱當然會一直持續到我們賣掉它。正如你所知，我們不知道那會是什麼時候。我們已經給你一些粗略的估計，大概是 4 到 8 個月，可能會更早，也可能會更晚。

And do you have any leeway opportunities to reduce the burn from Thermal in the meantime or what kind of amount does this represent -

在此期間，您是否有任何迴旋餘地來減少來自 Thermal 的燃燒，或者這代表著什麼樣的數量 -

Peter may cover the amount with you, but yes we have as well as put the operation up for sale and discussing now with potential buyers as you heard earlier. We have actually also reduced their cost base, so that we had the ability and have taken the action to reduce their burn rate as well. Because essentially this is now an operation discontinued and for sale, I have to some extent lose interest in the operating of the operation. I let the negotiations continue. So I don't know what the burn rate for the first few months could be. Peter may be able to say.

彼得可能會與您一起支付這筆費用，但是是的，正如您之前聽到的那樣，我們已經將業務出售並現在與潛在買家討論。實際上，我們還降低了他們的成本基礎，因此我們有能力並採取了行動來降低他們的燒錢率。因為從本質上講，這是一項已停產並出售的業務，所以我不得不在某種程度上對該業務的運營失去興趣。我讓談判繼續。所以我不知道前幾個月的燃燒率會是多少。彼得也許能說。

I think on an annualized basis, we don't expect that that will be more than Euro20m. But the sooner that we sell it, you know the better it is. But that's all in a few years [indecipherable] so it's up to us to come to the conclusion quick.

我認為按年計算，我們預計不會超過 2000 萬歐元。但是我們越早出售它，您就會知道它越好。但這都是幾年後的事情[難以辨認]，所以我們要盡快得出結論。

I'm sorry you just said not more than Euro 20m -

對不起，你剛才說不超過 2000 萬歐元 -

That's for a full year and a half year Euro 10m and a quarter year Euro 5m.

這是一整年半年的 1000 萬歐元和一個季度的 500 萬歐元。

Yes, but how do you explain then the very large figure of Euro 127m for 2002? Where did that come from essentially?

是的，但是您如何解釋 2002 年 1.27 億歐元的巨大數字？這本質上是從哪裡來的？

That came from the Euro 127m included all the charges that we put in there for closing the business down. And that is a full year loss for the Track operation and a full year loss for the Thermal operation before it was restructured in December.

這來自 1.27 億歐元，其中包括我們為關閉業務而投入的所有費用。這是軌道業務的全年虧損和熱力業務在 12 月重組之前的全年虧損。

Okay.

好的。

So it's a totally different picture. You can hardly compare the two numbers.

所以這是一個完全不同的畫面。你很難比較這兩個數字。

Alright. Just one last thing if you don't mind? As far as the capital expenditure guidance if at all for next year. What are you targeting?

好吧。如果你不介意，最後一件事？至於明年的資本支出指導。你的目標是什麼？

Yes, we are not going to exceed our 2002 number of slightly over Euro 130m. It's very likely going to be less because our need to invest is limited to the introduction of our new tools, the [indecipherable] 193mm tool, [indecipherable] for and 157 tool. There will be our regular information technology infrastructure cost that we will put into capital expenditure, but it's not going to exceed our 2002 numbers. It will be anywhere between Euro 120m and Euro 130m.

是的，我們不會超過 2002 年略高於 1.3 億歐元的數字。它很可能會減少，因為我們的投資需求僅限於引入我們的新工具，[無法辨認] 193mm 工具，[無法辨認] for 和 157 工具。我們將投入資本支出中的常規信息技術基礎設施成本，但不會超過我們 2002 年的數字。它將介於 1.2 億歐元和 1.3 億歐元之間。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

Let me just comment, it's now I think Central European time 24 minutes pas the hour. We have to close at 6.30, so there are six minutes or five minutes left. Maybe two or three questions.

讓我評論一下，現在我認為中歐時間是 24 分鐘一小時。我們必須在 6.30 關閉，所以還有六分鐘或五分鐘。可能有兩三個問題。

Thank you sir. Your next question comes from Mr Francois Breao(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你，先生。您的下一個問題來自 Francois Breao 先生（ph）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

This is Francois Breao(ph) from Credit Technical. Just one small one to verify. The used ASP, is it around Euro 5m, is that the correct figure because I was trying to reconcile your average unit price? The second question you mentioned a price for the disposal of the Thermal operation. I assume that this price is over and above the asset value in the balance sheet? Is that correct also?

我是 Credit Technical 的 Francois Breao(ph)。只需要一小部分來驗證。使用過的 ASP，大約是 500 萬歐元，這是正確的數字嗎，因為我試圖協調你們的平均單價？您提到的第二個問題是處置熱力業務的價格。我假設這個價格高於資產負債表中的資產價值？這也正確嗎？

We're just trying to look up the used ASP one. From my recollection it's more like than Euro 1m than Euro 5m which tells you the vintage nature of the product. So that answers the first part of your question. And because we were scrabbling for that information, we missed your second part of the question I'm sorry.

我們只是想查找使用過的 ASP 之一。根據我的回憶，它更像是 100 萬歐元而不是 500 萬歐元，它告訴您產品的複古性質。所以這回答了你問題的第一部分。因為我們正在尋找這些信息，所以我們錯過了您問題的第二部分，對不起。

Okay. So the second one is that you mentioned the price you want for the Thermal business. Is that above the asset value, the book value?

好的。所以第二個是你提到了你想要的熱力業務的價格。是否高於資產價值，賬面價值？

The book value is Euro 40m as you can see from the balance sheet. And Doug gave a very wide range that I've got to stick with. I mean we are right in the middle of a negotiation process and I am not able to comment any further.

從資產負債表中可以看出，賬面價值為 4000 萬歐元。道格給出了一個非常廣泛的範圍，我必須堅持。我的意思是我們正處於談判過程中，我無法進一步發表評論。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Next one please.

請下一張。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Miss Moira Gabero(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自 Moira Gabero (ph) 小姐。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Actually it's Peter Testa at Warner Investments. A couple of questions quickly. One on working capital. If you could give some update as to the ability you think you are going to have in getting your suppliers to accept different payment terms and get your customers to pay more quickly? Secondly is on the order book and the state of the market. To what extent are you collecting deposits or getting an active deposit or finding it difficult to get deposits to then allow you to plan your production more clearly? And on the 300mm part of the order book, there's a theory out there of a first wave and a second wave of investment and that we have seen the first wave of investment and the second wave may take longer to actually be drawn down. Can you comment a bit on that and in particular as regards your backlog? Thanks.

實際上是華納投資的彼得·泰斯塔。幾個問題很快。一是營運資金。如果您可以就您認為您將擁有的能力提供一些更新，讓您的供應商接受不同的付款條件並讓您的客戶更快地付款？其次是關於訂單簿和市場狀況。您在多大程度上收取定金或獲得活躍定金或發現難以獲得定金以便更清楚地計劃生產？在訂單簿的 300 毫米部分，有一個關於第一波和第二波投資的理論，我們已經看到第一波投資和第二波投資可能需要更長的時間才能真正下降。您能否對此發表評論，特別是關於您的積壓工作？謝謝。

Okay. Last one first, 300mm wave as you call it. Yes I think there has been a wave because initially there is the first products to allow customers to produce their first wafers and learn how to do all the difficult stuff they have to do. And then move into the consolidation period where they improve the yields and then comes along the big ultimate wave, if you like, that drives their factories to be full. We have not hit the second point yet. We've had the first point. You know our backlog for 300mm is 59% by value, right? So, half a billion in round figures of Euros is our 300mm backlog. It's pretty good and orders will continue coming in for those products for sure. So I don't think we've actually done into the second acceleration mode yet, but we are certainly still moving ahead, still supplying customers and customers are still negotiating for even more products. So I think we're coming through that first phase. I think it is in the flattish mode now, but flat is actually up slightly, hence the half a million backlog. And at some point in the next twelve months, whether it's three or nine, or twelve I don't know, it will start to kick into the second phase.

好的。最後一個，如你所說的 300 毫米波。是的，我認為已經掀起了一股浪潮，因為最初有第一批產品允許客戶生產他們的第一塊晶圓並學習如何完成他們必須做的所有困難的事情。然後進入整合期，在那裡他們提高了產量，然後隨著大浪的到來，如果你願意的話，這會推動他們的工廠滿負荷運轉。我們還沒有達到第二點。我們已經有了第一點。你知道我們 300 毫米的積壓是 59% 的價值，對吧？因此，十億歐元的整數是我們的 300 毫米積壓。這非常好，這些產品的訂單肯定會繼續湧入。所以我認為我們實際上還沒有進入第二加速模式，但我們肯定仍在繼續前進，仍在為客戶提供產品，客戶仍在就更多產品進行談判。所以我認為我們正在經歷第一階段。我認為它現在處於扁平化模式，但扁平化實際上略有上升，因此積壓了 50 萬。在接下來的十二個月的某個時間點，無論是三九個月，還是我不知道的十二個月，它將開始進入第二階段。

Do you think the delivery of that is contingent on their experience with the first machines they have in getting them up to efficiency rates and capacity utilization and so on?

您是否認為交付是否取決於他們使用第一台機器的經驗，以使他們達到效率和產能利用率等？

Absolutely, absolutely. I mean it depends on two things. Their experience with the first ones and also the order book. So yes, I think we can help with the first one, we can't do a damn thing with the second one other than buy a lot more PCs and mobile phones each, which I encourage by the way. So yes, I think the experience issue, it is a difficult ride for our customers because they are bringing on 300mm, but also they are bringing on at 130nm in some cases even better. So it's a double kind of jeopardy there and they've had a tough time some of them to get the process and the new wafer size and all the brand new equipment to work. They are coming through those early kind of disquietening days and seeing the benefits now. Some customers are now reporting yields at 300mm equal to yields at 200mm, which means the cost base is going to be less as of now for some of those guys than to build a 200mm -

絕對，絕對。我的意思是這取決於兩件事。他們對第一個的經驗以及訂單簿。所以是的，我認為我們可以幫助第一個，我們不能對第二個做任何該死的事情，只能購買更多的個人電腦和手機，順便說一句，我鼓勵這樣做。所以是的，我認為體驗問題，這對我們的客戶來說是一個艱難的過程，因為他們正在使用 300 毫米，但在某些情況下，他們正在使用 130 納米甚至更好。所以這是一種雙重危險，他們中的一些人很難讓工藝、新的晶圓尺寸和所有全新的設備正常工作。他們正在經歷那些令人不安的早期日子，現在看到了好處。一些客戶現在報告 300mm 的良率等於 200mm 的良率，這意味著對於其中一些人來說，成本基礎現在將低於製造 200mm -

So the timing might be a bit variable depending on clearance?

所以時間可能會根據間隙而有所不同？

Yes, yes. Regarding deposits from customers. We don't get many of those. They are not too inclined to give them to us. We would love to and it's always an ambition of ours, but we don't get much satisfaction, not surprisingly from our customers. So we build to order and we also build intelligently against one or two letters of intent, which are proving to be highly credible. And we build occasionally where we think we know what's going to happen and that's of course the slightly more difficult part of the business. But with 300mm we have the full knowledge that if we build against a speculative order for customer X, if they don't take it, within a pretty short space of time customer Y will because 300mm is in fairly consistent demand and is the future product.

是的是的。關於客戶存款。我們沒有得到很多。他們不太願意把它們給我們。我們很樂意，而且這始終是我們的雄心壯志，但我們並沒有得到太多的滿足，這並不奇怪，我們的客戶也對此感到驚訝。因此，我們按訂單生產，並且我們還根據一兩個意向書智能地構建，這些意向書被證明是高度可信的。我們偶爾會在我們認為我們知道會發生什麼的地方進行構建，這當然是業務中稍微困難的部分。但是對於 300mm，我們完全知道，如果我們針對客戶 X 的投機訂單進行製造，如果他們不接受，客戶 Y 會在很短的時間內接受，因為 300mm 的需求相當穩定，並且是未來的產品.

I should say however that we do receive prepayments or deposits from customers of the development projects that we have with them for [indecipherable] 157nm project.

然而，我應該說，我們確實收到了客戶的預付款或定金，這些客戶是我們與他們一起為 [難以辨認的] 157nm 項目而進行的開發項目。

And the UV.

還有紫外線。

And the UV yes.

和紫外線是的。

Okay. And the working capital question?

好的。還有營運資金問題？

That's with respect to the accounts receivable sold to suppliers. I mean of course it is difficult for the total supply chain, so starting 2002 we have entered into a new long-term agreement with many of our suppliers, whereby we have made much more stringent deals with them with respect to their order lead time. But also with respect to the ASML payment schedule, which is of course difficult in the current circumstances, but we have been successful.

這是關於出售給供應商的應收賬款。我的意思是整個供應鏈當然是困難的，所以從 2002 年開始，我們與許多供應商簽訂了一項新的長期協議，根據他們的訂單交貨時間，我們與他們達成了更加嚴格的協議。還有關於 ASML 的付款時間表，這在當前情況下當然是困難的，但我們已經成功了。

With respect to the accounts receivables, our customers, it is of course in periods like this it is a continual struggle where our customers will use every argument whether it's a loose screw or whether it's a missing document. They will use every argument not to pay. So it is up to the company to basically organize ourselves in such a manner that the sales organization works together with customer support, with the factory and with development and with the finance organization. And that is basically where it is because if you take the impediments away, customers will always pay. We have a customer base that is from a financial point of view normally very healthy and we aren't delivering under letters of credit. So it is up to us basically internally to speed up that process and to be very focused. And that's what we are doing and we are seeing days outstanding coming down as we speak, but we are not there yet. So there is still some ground to conquer.

關於應收賬款，我們的客戶，當然，在這樣的時期，這是一場持續的鬥爭，我們的客戶將使用每一個論據，無論是螺絲鬆動還是文件丟失。他們會利用一切理由不付錢。因此，基本上由公司來組織自己，使銷售組織與客戶支持、工廠、開發和財務組織一起工作。這基本上就是它所在的地方，因為如果你消除障礙，客戶總是會付錢的。我們有一個從財務角度來看通常非常健康的客戶群，我們沒有根據信用證交付。因此，基本上由我們內部來加快這一進程並非常專注。這就是我們正在做的事情，當我們發言時，我們看到了傑出的日子即將到來，但我們還沒有做到。所以還有一些地方可以征服。

By the way when my CFO mentions to the dear listeners on this call a loose screw is not talking about the CEO okay?

順便說一句，當我的首席財務官在這次電話會議上向親愛的聽眾提到時，一個鬆散的螺絲釘不是在談論首席執行官，好嗎？

So is that to say that in a currently relatively flat environment, you are not seeing any particular impediment either from your supply chains' struggles or from your customers' struggles to achieving your targets?

那麼是不是說，在當前相對平坦的環境中，無論是供應鏈的掙扎還是客戶實現目標的掙扎，您都沒有看到任何特別的障礙？

[inaudible] fourth quarter Peter.

[聽不清] 第四節彼得。

I mean continuing and going on?

我的意思是繼續並繼續？

Yes and I think we are not there yet. [indecipherable] on both inventory and on receivables there is still room to find improvement and we will do that.

是的，我認為我們還沒有。 [無法辨認]庫存和應收賬款仍有改進的空間，我們會這樣做。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

It is 6.30 and because we are generous, I will allow more single question, not one of these multiple part questions please. So if the last lucky winner would like to place their call?

現在是 6.30，因為我們很慷慨，我會允許更多的單一問題，而不是這些多部分問題中的一個。那麼，如果最後一位幸運的獲勝者想撥打電話？

Thank you. Your last question comes from Mr Johannes Reece(ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

謝謝你。您的最後一個問題來自 Johannes Reece 先生（ph）。請說明您的公司名稱，然後是您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon it is Johannes Reece(ph) TRT in Frankfurt. One question regarding the ordering. Take maybe in two parts but very quick. First, of de-ram orders based on the next shrink you have already seen or is something to come in the first half? And you mentioned regarding the whole semiconductor industry that you expect an improvement, a stronger improvement in the second half. Does this mean that you even expect a stronger order development for your company in the second half?

是的，下午好，我是法蘭克福的 Johannes Reece(ph) TRT。關於訂購的一個問題。可能分為兩部分，但非常快。首先，基於您已經看到的下一次收縮的 de-ram 訂單，還是上半年會出現？您提到整個半導體行業，您預計下半年會有所改善，會有更強的改善。這是否意味著您甚至期望貴公司在下半年有更強勁的訂單發展？

On the first part of your question which was de-ram based and I did ask for a one-part question but I guess we'll allow this one to slip through. I missed part of it, did you say Micron did I hear at one time?

在你的問題的第一部分是基於 de-ram 的，我確實問了一個單部分的問題，但我想我們會允許這個問題通過。我錯過了一部分，你說我有一次聽到美光嗎？

No, no, the overall.

不不不，總體來說。

Oh the overall.

整體哦。

Most de-ram companies speak of CAPEX in their first quarter in Q4 last year because of the next shrinking step to 2010 to 2011 based on the technologies. Therefore have we seen most of the orders from the de-ram side already or is there more to come based on the next shrinking?

大多數 de-ram 公司在去年第四季度的第一季度談到 CAPEX，因為基於技術的下一個收縮步驟到 2010 年到 2011 年。因此，我們是否已經看到了來自 de-ram 方面的大部分訂單，或者基於下一次收縮還有更多訂單？

There's more to come based on the next shrink. We saw a lot of orders for existing technology, 130nano meter and now we are going to see the next phase down at 190 nano meters. That answers the first part of your question. What was your second question again?

根據下一次縮小，還有更多內容。我們看到了很多現有技術的訂單，130 納米，現在我們將看到下一階段下降到 190 納米。這回答了你問題的第一部分。你的第二個問題又是什麼？

Second question was regarding your overall outlook on the semiconductor industry. You mentioned second half will be stronger than the first half, therefore is it even the case for your company on the order side?

第二個問題是關於您對半導體行業的總體展望。你提到下半年會比上半年強，所以你們公司在訂單方面也是這樣嗎？

I mean if the people who forecast increase in semiconductors later this year are right, and I don't claim to be able to forecast that, I just read the forecasts I see. Then clearly at some point in time we will see an increase in orders. But bear in mind there is a time lag between our customers increasing their output, using their capacity until it triggers the need for them to place the orders. And there is often a three to six month time lag between that. So a resurgence in semiconductor output won't instantaneously give us new orders. There will be a time lag there of a few months.

我的意思是，如果預測今年晚些時候半導體增長的人是正確的，我並沒有聲稱能夠預測，我只是閱讀了我看到的預測。然後很明顯，在某個時間點，我們會看到訂單增加。但請記住，我們的客戶在增加產量、利用他們的產能直到觸發他們下訂單的需求之間存在時間差。這之間通常有三到六個月的時間差。因此，半導體產量的複蘇不會立即給我們帶來新的訂單。那裡會有幾個月的時間滯後。

For capacity based orders, do you expect more in the year 2004?

對於基於產能的訂單，您預計 2004 年會有更多訂單嗎？

Yes. If you believe the IT companies are going to continue to grow as I do, then at some point in the next 18 months we will see a lot of capacity orders coming in.

是的。如果你相信 IT 公司會像我一樣繼續增長，那麼在未來 18 個月的某個時間點，我們將看到大量產能訂單湧入。

Okay I think from our side, let me thank you to the listeners for being on the line. And those who asked questions thanks a lot, searching questions as usual. Let me wish you all the best for 2003 and safe journey home. Thank you Mark.

好的，我從我們這邊想，讓我感謝聽眾們的在線。那些提出問題的人非常感謝，像往常一樣搜索問題。讓我祝你2003年一切順利，一路平安。謝謝馬克。

Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the ASML Annual Results 2002. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，ASML 2002 年度業績到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。