艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2003 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML half year and second quarter results 2003 conference call on the July 16, 2003. Throughout today's recorded presentation all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please press the star key followed by the zero on your push-button phone for operator assistance.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2003 年 7 月 16 日 ASML 2003 年上半年及第二季業績電話會議。在今天的錄製演示過程中,所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。演示結束後,將有機會提問。如果任何參與者聽不清楚會議內容,請按下按鍵電話上的星號鍵,然後按零,以尋求接線員的協助。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Dunn. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我想將會議交給道格‧鄧恩先​​生。先生,請繼續。

  • Craig DeYoung - Director, Investor Relations

    Craig DeYoung - Director, Investor Relations

  • Actually this Craig DeYoung, Director of Investor Relations for ASML. I'd like to welcome you to the Call. I have with me Mr. Doug Dunn our CEO, and Mr. Peter Wennink our CFO. I would like to ask that everybody constrained their questions to one, with one short follow up please. The duration of the call will be one hour. After I read a Safe Harbor statement Doug will open with a kind of a summary or an overview of our Q2 results.

    實際上,這是 ASML 投資者關係總監 Craig DeYoung。我歡迎您參加此次電話會議。和我一起的還有我們的執行長 Doug Dunn 先生和我們的財務長 Peter Wennink 先生。我希望大家將問題限制在一個範圍內,並附上一個簡短的後續問題。通話時長為一小時。在我讀完安全港聲明後,Doug 將以某種方式總結或概述我們的第二季業績。

  • The matters discussed during this call include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including but not limited to: economic conditions, product pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new products development, ability to enforce patents, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

    本次電話會議中討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響,包括但不限於:經濟狀況、產品定價、製造效率、新產品開發、專利執行能力、原材料和關鍵製造設備的可用性、貿易環境以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的其他風險。

  • Over to you, Doug.

    交給你了,道格。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Repeat that again please, Craig. Thank you. Good day ladies and gentlemen around the world. Thank you for listening in and calling in, and I look forward to your questions in a few moments. But just to start with a few general comments, I'm not going to go through the presentation, it is on our -- the presentation was web cast and all the documentation is available for you, so please use it.

    請再說一遍,克雷格。謝謝。世界各地的女士們、先生們,大家好。感謝您的收聽和來電,我期待您稍後的提問。但首先我要談幾點一般性的評論,我不會詳細講解整個演示過程,演示已通過網絡直播,所有文檔均可供您使用,請使用它。

  • Let me just therefore give a few opening comments then we will get onto the questions.

    因此,請允許我先發表一些開場白,然後我們再開始提問。

  • So the second quarter was I think predictably - and I think I called it this last time we spoke a quarter ago - bullish and flatish. You saw our sales at 41 Systems were kind of in that flat region I indicated that we had experienced back in -- when we talked last in April.

    因此,我認為第二季度是可以預見的 - 我記得我們上一個季度前談話時我就是這樣說的 - 看漲和持平。您看到,41 Systems 的銷售額處於平穩狀態,我曾指出,我們在 4 月上次談話時就經歷過這種情況。

  • But we have made some, I think, good progress, and I want to talk about two things very briefly. One is my view of the state of the market, and secondly then the progress we are making despite the market. So the market for semiconductors, I think there's a growing body of confidence now that there is gentle but sustained growth now for several quarters. Growth in dollars. Even greater growth in units, but still gentle and sustained compared to the previous growth period of the 90s and 80s and 70s of 17%. We're probably down to half that number. I must say, although we'd like to see the 17%, I'm quite content to see it even growing at all. And if we can sustain this 8% for the next few quarters then it will make a big difference to all of us, including ASML.

    但我認為我們已經取得了一些良好的進展,我想簡要地談兩件事。一是我對市場狀況的看法,二是儘管市場如此,我們仍在取得進展。因此,我認為,對於半導體市場,現在人們的信心正在不斷增強,因為半導體市場已經連續幾季保持了溫和但持續的成長。美元增長。雖然銷量成長幅度更大,但與 90 年代、80 年代和 17% 的成長相比,成長仍然溫和且持續。我們可能已經下降到這個數字的一半了。我必須說,儘管我們希望看到 17% 的成長,但我很高興看到它能夠成長。如果我們能夠在接下來的幾季保持這 8% 的成長速度,那麼對我們所有公司,包括 ASML 來說,都將產生重大影響。

  • ASP's, however for IC's are still going down, although there's month to month variation. So it does indicate, as does the utilization graphs, that there's a lot of overhanging capacity still out there in our customers. And for that reason they are not ambitiously placing lots of orders with us. They are very -- they're scrutinizing very clearly and very carefully every order they place, and eking out the orders one by one to ensure that they aren't embarrassed by a further overhang of their capacity, which has been around their necks now for almost three years. And to make sure they're not committed to taking on extra costs and depreciation from us that they don't actually need.

    然而,IC 的平均銷售價格 (ASP) 仍在下降,儘管每個月都有變化。因此,正如利用率圖表所示,它確實表明我們的客戶中仍然存在大量過剩的產能。因此,他們並沒有雄心勃勃地向我們下大量訂單。他們非常清楚、非常仔細地審查他們下達的每一份訂單,並逐一處理訂單,以確保他們不會因產能過剩而陷入困境,這個問題已經困擾他們近三年了。並確保他們不會承擔我們實際上不需要的額外成本和折舊。

  • Firstly, I think that's a very healthy approach, and I actually say I endorse that. I want to get rid of this capacity overhang as well, and so we have the same objective here as our customers. It does mean there will be I think a lean period still for another period of weeks, quarters, whatever, on order intake, but that is a function which finally is going to be healthy. Let me reassure those of you who may think otherwise, we are not losing market share, and therefore out lack of order intake is only a function of customers' reluctance to place orders in advance of that need.

    首先,我認為這是一種非常健康的方法,事實上我同意這種方法。我也想擺脫這種產能過剩的問題,因此我們與客戶有著相同的目標。我認為這確實意味著訂單量仍將在未來幾週、幾個季度或更長時間內處於低迷期,但最終會恢復健康。讓我向那些可能不這麼認為的人保證,我們並沒有失去市場份額,因此,我們訂單量的不足只是因為客戶不願意提前下訂單。

  • We also know that we can deliver much more quickly now because we've honed down our cycle times with our sales and our suppliers, so they're taking advantage of that as well.

    我們也知道,我們現在可以更快地交付,因為我們已經縮短了銷售和供應商的週期時間,所以他們也利用了這一點。

  • So that's the general market condition, and long may this steady and sustained growth continue. And at some point there will be intersection of the curves of utilization, and at that point you will see the trickle of orders come into a steady flow of orders. Maybe not a gush, but a steady flow would feel much better.

    這就是整體市場狀況,希望這種穩定、持續的成長能夠長期持續下去。在某個時刻,利用率曲線將會相交,那時你會看到涓涓細流的訂單變成了穩定的訂單流。也許不是一股湧流,但穩定的流動會感覺好得多。

  • Let me just talk about the things that we at ASML have done in the face of that. Well, you will have seen in Q2 compared to Q1 - and I think that quarterly-to-quarterly comparisons, sequential quarters, is more appropriate quite frankly than year-on-year, although we will do both obviously. I say that because I think we should look at the recent trends, not the historical kind of aberrations that may have occurred a year ago. It seems like a lifetime ago.

    我只想談談 ASML 面對這種情況所做的事情。嗯,您會看到第二季度與第一季的比較——坦率地說,我認為季度與季度之間的比較、連續的季度比較比同比的比較更為合適,儘管我們顯然會同時進行這兩種比較。我這樣說是因為我認為我們應該關注最近的趨勢,而不是一年前可能發生的歷史異常。感覺就像是上輩子的事了。

  • For sequential quarters we've seen an improvement in our balance sheet and the cash. We're now up to €1.25b in cash, and yes we will exclude 370 of the convertible from that. We will still stick to our objectives to generate by the end of the this year from our ongoing operations - not the convertible - €1b in cash, and we're on track to do that. And that is a commitment we still make. And it has removed of course the overhang of the convertible that matures next year in November, and people I think have now removed that from their worries.

    從連續幾季來看,我們的資產負債表和現金都有所改善。我們現在的現金已達到 12.5 億歐元,是的,我們將從中排除 370 億歐元的可轉換債券。我們仍將堅持我們的目標,到今年年底,透過我們正在進行的營運(而非可轉換債券)產生 10 億歐元現金,而且我們正在按計劃實現這一目標。這是我們至今仍堅持的承諾。當然,這也消除了明年 11 月到期的可轉換債券的負擔,我認為人們現在已經不再擔心這個問題了。

  • We've achieved that cash inflow by controlling the cash receivable. It's come down as you see in days of sales. And from reducing inventories, they've also come down over the quarter. And by the extremely diligent and cost conscious in all the cash that we expend. So that's a big step forward.

    我們透過控制應收現金實現了現金流入。正如您在銷售天數中所看到的,它已經下降了。由於庫存減少,本季庫存也出現下降。我們在花費所有現金時都極其勤奮並注重成本。這是向前邁出的一大步。

  • You saw the gross margin improve. I think 5 percentage points from 17 to 22. In actual fact were it not for the element of the restructuring costs that came into gross margin, you would have seen 23% gross margin up from 17%. So that's if you like a measure of the beginning of the process to recover that gross margin. It will go up again quarter-on-quarter, hopefully for the rest of our lives, but certainly for the next few quarters.

    您看到毛利率有所提高。我認為從 17 到 22 之間會增加 5 個百分點。事實上,如果不是重組成本因素影響到毛利率,毛利率將從 17% 上升到 23%。因此,如果您願意衡量恢復毛利率的流程的開始,那就可以了。希望在我們的餘生中,這一數字將逐季度上升,但肯定會在接下來的幾個季度中上升。

  • You've seen also our recent announcements, today in fact, on the further efforts we are taking, the rather sad and unpleasant efforts to reduce our cost base by a reduction of human resources. We do that after great deliberation for a few weeks, but it's necessary. The last time we announced such a reduction was in November I think of last year, or December - I forget which now - in which everyone including we believe that the bottoming out for the industry would be something like 450 or 500 systems, and that we would experience therefore a low point of 160-ish. That unfortunately was not quite the bottom. The bottom occurred probably four or five months later in Q2 of this year. And now I think there's a growing consensus, not just from me but from many more persuasive forecasters than myself, that we have reached the bottom. And therefore that bottom is looking like a number of tools sold for the industry of around 400, maybe slightly less, 360, 380, or whatever the number is. We therefore have taken the extra reduction to heart and will reduce our cost base accordingly. So our new breakeven point will come down to 130-ish systems at today's mix.

    事實上,今天您也看到了我們最近發布的公告,我們正在採取進一步的努力,即透過減少人力資源來降低成本基礎,這些努力雖然令人傷心和不愉快。我們經過幾週的深思熟慮後才這樣做,但這是必要的。我們上次宣布這樣的削減是在去年 11 月,我記得是去年 12 月,或者我現在忘記是哪一年了,當時包括我們在內的所有人都認為,該行業的最低點將是 450 或 500 個系統,因此我們將經歷 160 左右的低點。不幸的是,這還不是底部。底部大概出現於四、五個月後,即今年第二季。現在我認為,越來越多的人達成共識,不僅是我,而且許多比我更有說服力的預測者也認為我們已經觸底。因此,底部看起來就像是該行業銷售的工具數量約為 400 件,可能略少一些,360 件、380 件或任何其他數字。因此,我們認真考慮了額外的減免,並將相應降低成本基礎。因此,按照今天的組合,我們的新損益平衡點將降至 130 個系統左右。

  • Because of some of the issues we have to face with our trades unions and works councils and local regulations, we won't see the benefit or the advantage of that coming through perhaps the first quarter of next year. We will see some later this year, but mostly first quarter of next year. And we've taken that action with -- clearly with sadness, but it's vital for our future health. Because never again do we want to be in a position where the market fall so suddenly and so dramatically that it leaves us with a cost base that generates losses. So by this action we believe we've underpinned the low point in the industry, and that low point may be achieved again but will never be surpassed in the future. And therefore we've kind of put our cost base such that we never have to report significant losses again, even at the down part of the cycle.

    由於我們必須面對工會、勞資委員會和地方法規方面的一些問題,我們可能要等到明年第一季才能看到這種做法帶來的好處或優勢。我們將在今年晚些時候看到一些,但主要是在明年第一季。我們採取這一行動顯然是帶著悲傷的,但這對我們未來的健康至關重要。因為我們再也不想陷入這樣的境地:市場突然大幅下跌,導致我們的成本基礎遭受損失。因此,透過這項行動,我們相信我們已經支撐了產業的低點,而這個低點可能會再次出現,但永遠不會被超越。因此,我們設定了成本基礎,這樣,即使在週期的低迷時期,我們也不必再報告重大損失。

  • And also we have to reflect on the fight of the up part of the cycle. We'll never get to those 1200 type unit shift that we experienced in 2000, that was a somewhat unique event. If we get back to 800 that will be quite pleasing for all of us, and I see the range of forecasts for the next peak is between 650 and I think 800 or so.

    我們也必須反思週期上升部分的鬥爭。我們永遠無法達到 2000 年所經歷的 1200 型單位轉變,那是一個相當獨特的事件。如果我們回到 800,這對我們所有人來說都會非常高興,我看到下一個高峰的預測範圍在 650 到 800 左右。

  • So we've taken necessary action, painful as it is to downsize for that. Those discussions are taking place with employee works councils, and we will work through that process this year.

    因此,我們採取了必要的行動,儘管裁員是痛苦的。我們正在與員工勞資委員會進行這些討論,我們將在今年完成這項工作。

  • So they are, I think, the positive things that we have done. We've also maintained our market share. We've bid for every serious bit of business that we can find and we've won a lot of it. There is some price pressure our there, we're only human, so we do give a little bit more perhaps now on pricing than we would have in a good year. But still we have a price premium to our competition. Still we lead in technology. We shipped the world's first [full field] 0157 tool in the second quarter. And we just shipped last month the highest [NA] 193 tool known to this world. So we maintain that lead in technology.

    所以我認為這些都是我們所做的正面的事情。我們也保持了我們的市場份額。我們對能找到的每一項重要業務都進行了競標,並且贏得了很多。我們那裡存在一些價格壓力,我們只是人,所以我們現在在定價上可能比好年景時給予的更多一點。但我們的價格仍比競爭對手高。我們在技術上仍然處於領先地位。我們在第二季推出了全球首款[全領域] 0157 工具。上個月我們剛推出了世界上已知的最高的 [NA] 193 工具。因此我們在技術上保持領先地位。

  • And also customers, through and independent survey - sponsored by ASML but by VLSI Research - have voted us number two - okay, that's not quite as good a gold medal, but a silver medal is quite good - for customer satisfaction. So in the process of all these changing events around us, we're also maintaining a high level of satisfaction with customers. And we came in with the silver medal there. The nearest competitor from a litho point of view was number 10, and so I think from a litho point of view we've clearly had a higher level of satisfaction substantially than our nearest competitor. And I'll let you judge who that may have been.

    此外,透過由 ASML 贊助、VLSI Research 進行的一項獨立調查,客戶將我們評為客戶滿意度第二名——好吧,這雖然不如金牌那麼好,但銀牌也相當不錯了。因此,在我們周圍發生所有這些變化的過程中,我們也保持著較高的客戶滿意度。我們在那裡獲得了銀牌。從光刻角度來看,最接近的競爭對手是第 10 名,因此我認為從光刻角度來看,我們的滿意度顯然比最接近的競爭對手高得多。我讓你判斷那人是誰。

  • I think therefore I'm going to draw this preamble to a close. By now you will either be bored or dying to ask some questions, so I will throw it open, Diana, please to some questions.

    因此我想我要結束這個序言了。現在你要么感到無聊,要么迫不及待地想問一些問題,所以我將公開提出一些問題,戴安娜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen. At this time we will begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star followed by one on your pushbutton phone. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star followed by two. Your questions will be answered in the order they are received. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment please for the first question.

    謝謝您,先生。女士們,先生們。現在我們將開始問答環節。如果您有疑問,請在按鍵電話上按星號,然後按一。如果您想取消請求,請按星號,然後按二。我們將按照收到問題的順序來答覆您提出的問題。如果您今天正在使用揚聲器設備,請在做出選擇之前拿起聽筒。請稍等片刻回答第一個問題。

  • The first question comes from Mr. Jean D' Anjou. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    第一個問題來自 Jean D'Anjou 先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

    Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon. This is Jean D' Anjou from CSFB. I have a very quick question on the near term. Basically you are now in half July. Have you seen anything different in trends in orders since the beginning of Q3 compared to the end of June? And what about recent speculation that there is some new DRAM projects that were going to turn into orders? Here I am talking about Samsung and Inotera (ph).

    嗨,下午好。我是瑞士信貸第一波士頓銀行的 Jean D' Anjou。我有一個關於近期的簡短問題。基本上現在已經是七月中旬了。與 6 月底相比,您是否發現第三季初的訂單趨勢有什麼不同?那麼,最近有傳言稱,一些新的 DRAM 項目即將轉化為訂單,您對此怎麼看?這裡我談的是三星和華亞科技(Inotera)。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay, I didn't quite understand the first half of your question. I understand the Samsung and Inotera (ph) one Jean, but what was your first part again?

    好的,我不太明白你問題的前半部。我了解三星和華亞科技(音譯)的 Jean,但你的第一部分是什麼?

  • Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

    Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

  • The first part is, basically I was talking about what kind of business trends have you seen beginning of July? Does that make you a bit more optimistic about the long[indiscernible]?

    第一部分,基本上我在談論您在 7 月初看到了什麼樣的商業趨勢?這是否會讓您對長期[音頻不清晰]更加樂觀?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you, yes. We're supposed to be reporting on the second quarter but of course we're always keen to talk about the latest bit of news. And yes, I guess you had a good antenna here, Jean. There are a few pieces of business being bid for actively as we speak, and I guess you guys and gals will know most of those, you're quite intelligent in these things. And indeed we're bidding for them, and I believe that we're going to be successful in part or in whole with quite a few of them. Indeed recent comments, as recent as today - and done forget Semicon West is taking place - is that ASML is well positioned on some of these potentials. And I will say no more than that.

    謝謝,是的。我們應該報告第二季度的情況,但當然我們總是熱衷於談論最新消息。是的,我想你在這裡有一個好的天線,Jean。就在我們說話的時候,有幾項業務正在被積極競標,我想你們應該對其中的大部分都了解,你們在這些事情上相當聰明。我們確實正在競標這些項目,我相信我們將在部分或全部項目中取得成功。事實上,最近的評論,就像今天一樣——並且不要忘記Semicon West正在舉行——是ASML在某些潛力方面處於有利地位。我就不多說了。

  • So I think when you look at the backlog at end of Q2, you saw -- you know this is a very lumpy industry. We fill up our backlog and then suddenly a customer comes in with a lot of orders, and if he comes in a day too late you see a pretty weak backlog. A day later it can be a very strong backlog. I'm not saying it's turned to a weak to a strong one, Jean, but it's certainly, I think, going to recover this second half. And there's some good indications that our products are very competitive and we will get serious orders coming in from some of the big bids going down.

    所以我認為,當你看到第二季末的積壓訂單時,你會看到——這是一個非常不穩定的行業。我們的積壓訂單已經滿了,然後突然有一位客戶帶著很多訂單過來,如果他晚來一天,你會看到積壓訂單非常少。一天之後,積壓的訂單可能會非常多。我並不是說它已經由弱轉強,吉恩,但我認為,它肯定會在下半年復甦。一些好的跡象表明我們的產品非常有競爭力,我們將從一些大投標中獲得大量訂單。

  • You know, Inotera and Samsung, I'm not going to comment on individual customers until they want me to and will allow me to, and some of these deals are in process. Suffice it to say that we are a serious contender in both these accounts.

    你知道,對於華亞科技和三星,我不會對個別客戶發表評論,除非他們希望我這樣做並且允許我這樣做,而且其中一些交易正在進行中。可以肯定地說,我們在這兩方面都是有力的競爭者。

  • Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

    Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

  • Okay. I have just a quick follow-on. If these things are coming, but they seem to be long to coming away, don't you think there's a risk that you could see some seepage into 2004 in terms of shipments, even though you get the orders at the end of the day?

    好的。我只是想快速跟進一下。如果這些事情正在發生,但似乎還需要很長時間才能實現,您是否認為存在這樣的風險:即使您最終收到了訂單,2004 年的出貨量仍有可能受到影響?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes, I mean some of these orders by the way are for 2004, to be quite frank about it. Most of the big deals going down right now are for next year. There's a lot of ones and twos for filling in this year, but most of the orders that we will get for the big contracts this year are for delivery next year. So you're quite right. That's not slippage, because I never envisaged -- well maybe one or two I thought may be in the fourth quarter from a deliver point of view, but that was always a long shot. I'm quite content that we take the orders now for delivery in 2004. That's the reality of building fabs and equipping them.

    是的,順便說一下,坦白說,其中一些訂單是針對 2004 年的。目前正在進行的大多數大交易都是為了明年。今年有很多一和二需要填寫,但今年我們接到的大合約的大多數訂單都是明年交付的。所以你說得很對。這並不是失誤,因為我從來沒有想到過——好吧,從交付的角度來看,我認為在第四季度可能會有一兩個失誤,但這始終是一個長遠的目標。我很高興我們現在接受 2004 年交貨的訂單。這就是建造晶圓廠並為其配備設備的現實。

  • Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

    Jean D' Anjou - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Jean.

    謝謝你,Jean。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Michael Haufelder. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    下一個問題來自 Michael Haufelder 先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Michael Haufelder - Analyst

    Michael Haufelder - Analyst

  • Hi It's Michael Haufelder, HSBC in Munich. I just had a question on your optimistic outlook regarding the gross margin. I think your share of 193 nanometer systems increased on the backlog compared to the last quarter. So would you comment on this one?

    您好,我是慕尼黑匯豐銀行的 Michael Haufelder。我只是對您對毛利率的樂觀看法有一個疑問。我認為與上一季相比,你們的 193 奈米系統積壓份額有所增加。那麼你對此有何評論?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes, let me come back to your comment about the optimistic gross margin. As you know it's improved from 17 point something to 22 or 23, depending whether you allow us to take in or exclude the restructuring costs that affect gross margin. That is an improvement which we're proud of, but still it's a long way from where it will be and should be, Michael. So please don't think that we have a complacency with that kind of gross margin. It will continue to improve in small increments as each quarter goes by, as the volume builds and our cost of goods production program comes on stream. It will be further helped by a following wind if the rate of order input, and therefore delivery increases, if it's market recovers and the utilization reaches a threshold point in the medium term.

    是的,讓我回到你關於樂觀毛利率的評論。如您所知,它從 17 點左右提高到了 22 或 23,這取決於您是否允許我們納入或排除影響毛利率的重組成本。這是一個令我們感到自豪的進步,但距離我們應該達到的水平還有很長的路要走,邁克爾。所以請不要認為我們對這樣的毛利率感到自滿。隨著每個季度的過去、產量的增加以及我們的商品生產成本計劃的實施,它將繼續以小幅度改善。如果訂單輸入率和交付率增加,如果市場復甦並且利用率在中期內達到閾值點,那麼後續風將進一步為其提供幫助。

  • And regarding 193, I would say hopefully humbly that we are in the lead with ARF, with INA ARF. And that does command a high selling price, because it is a complex product and a leading edge product. Whether that's going to have, in itself, a bigger material impact on the gross margin, I suspect it may not in its own right. And the gross margin is reached with the inability to -- sorry, the backlog is reached with [indiscernible] to tools, and increasingly they go towards the 193 end, as our sophisticated customers buy them. But don't forget the higher selling price of the 193 tool reflects a higher bill of material cost. The lens cost, building the [calcium fluoride] elements in that lens is high. And therefore you can't translate that increased selling price into increased gross margin. Not immediately anyway, no.

    關於 193,我想謙虛地說,我們在 ARF 和 INA ARF 方面處於領先地位。而且它確實可以賣出高價,因為它是一種複雜且前沿的產品。至於這本身是否會對毛利率產生更大的實質影響,我認為可能不會。而且毛利率是在無力實現的 - 抱歉,積壓訂單是在工具方面實現的,而且隨著我們老練的客戶購買它們,它們越來越多地走向 193 端。但請不要忘記,193 工具的較高售價反映了較高的物料清單成本。鏡頭成本,以及鏡頭中[氟化鈣]元素的建造成本很高。因此,你不能將增加的銷售價格轉化為增加的毛利率。無論如何,不是立即的。

  • Michael Haufelder - Analyst

    Michael Haufelder - Analyst

  • I was more thinking about a negative impact from the in the increase in 300 mm systems in your backlog, from 55% to 67%.

    我更考慮的是積壓訂單中 300 毫米系統從 55% 增加到 67% 所帶來的負面影響。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Pete is itching to answer this one and therefore I'm going to let him.

    皮特很想回答這個問題,所以我會讓他回答。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • I think there are two elements to that gross margin story. I mean the 300 mm sales will generate a higher absolute sales level. While on a relative base, tool for tool comparison, 200 mm, 300 mm, your relative margin contribution of course [indiscernible] might be a step lower in the long run. But if you look at the absolute contribution because of the higher selling price, it is higher in euros. And since the margin is meant to cover fixed costs, the volume of sales is the most important driver to bring the gross margin up. That is one.

    我認為毛利率的故事包含兩個要素。我的意思是 300 毫米的銷售將產生更高的絕對銷售水平。而在相對基礎上,工具與工具的比較,200 毫米,300 毫米,從長遠來看,您的相對利潤貢獻當然 [音訊不清晰] 可能會低一級。但如果你看由於售價較高而產生的絕對貢獻,以歐元計算的話會更高。由於利潤是為了彌補固定成本,因此銷售量是提高毛利率的最重要驅動力。那是一個。

  • And therefore when you talk about this, cost of goods are being -- they are [indiscernible] as we speak, because the ability [indiscernible] INA [indiscernible] and that platform because of good sold, that is going down as we speak. So most important element in here, the absolute sales volume with yet a relatively lower gross margin going through. And in absolute terms giving us a higher gross margin to cover the fixed costs.

    因此,當您談論這一點時,商品成本正在 - 它們在我們說話時是[聽不清楚],因為能力[聽不清楚] INA [聽不清楚]和該平台由於商品銷售,在我們說話時正在下降。這裡最重要的因素是絕對銷售量,但毛利率相對較低。從絕對值來看,這為我們提供更高的毛利率來彌補固定成本。

  • Michael Haufelder - Analyst

    Michael Haufelder - Analyst

  • Okay, that's great. Thank you very much.

    好的,太好了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, sir. The next question comes from Mr. Jay Deahna (ph). Please state your company name followed by your question, sir. Mr. Donna, please state your question.

    謝謝您,先生。下一個問題來自 Jay Deahna 先生(音)。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。唐娜先生,請陳述您的問題。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. I just wanted to ask you about your cash flow situation given the incremental restructuring. What do you expect to see in a reasonable growth environment in the first half of next year, improved cash flow versus what we otherwise would have expected prior to the incremental restructuring?

    好的,謝謝。大家下午好。我只是想問一下在漸進式重組的情況下您的現金流狀況。您預計在明年上半年合理的成長環境中,現金流將如何改善,與我們在增量重組之前的預期相比如何?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Quite a convoluted question, Jay. By the way, thanks for your question it's a tough one. Yes, so we've said that we'll generate cash through this year, and we've achieved it as you know so far, and will do so, Jay, for the rest of the year. Next year, as far as I'm concerned, we have a cash generation program in place as well. The only time it could actually falter would be if there is a very sudden uptake in input of orders that requires to make a lot of purchases on materials. I mean frankly I would look at that problem.

    這是一個相當複雜的問題,傑伊。順便說一句,謝謝你的提問,這是一個很難的問題。是的,我們說過,我們今年將產生現金,而且正如你所知,到目前為止我們已經實現了這一目標,而且,傑伊,在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們也會繼續這樣做。就我而言,明年我們也有一個現金產生計劃。唯一可能真正發生故障的情況是,訂單量突然增加,需要購買大量材料。我的意思是坦率地說我會研究這個問題。

  • But given the more gentle uptake that I think will take place, I believe we can continue our cash generation program through next year - although I'm not going to make any public commitments on the value of the amount of cash it might reach. And also don't forget -- Peter's just told me not to forget things like lead times and cycle times, as they have an impact on that. We are reducing those, by the way, internally and externally, so they will help.

    但考慮到我認為將會出現的更溫和的增長,我相信我們可以在明年繼續我們的現金創造計劃 - 儘管我不會對它可能達到的現金數額做出任何公開承諾。並且也不要忘記——彼得剛剛告訴我不要忘記交貨時間和周期時間等事情,因為它們會對此產生影響。順便說一句,我們正在從內部和外部減少這些,所以它們會有所幫助。

  • Are we going to buy back? As you know the maturing convertible from next November, starting now -- So all in all next year I think there will be -- we will have an aggressive cash generation program internally, it will only pick up I think if there's a very quick burst of orders that we have to go and extend our cash supply. But that's why we're building the cash reserves quite frankly, Jay.

    我們要回購嗎?正如你所知,可轉換債券將於明年 11 月到期,從現在開始——所以總的來說,我認為明年將會有——我們將在內部有一個積極的現金生成計劃,我認為只有當訂單迅速激增時,它才會回升,我們必須去擴大我們的現金供應。但坦白說,這就是我們建立現金儲備的原因,傑伊。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • That was actually my next question. Are you actually buying that back now? Has that process commenced? And then finally, when do you expect broad-based orders for 90 nanometer capacity expansion to start? And that's it for me, thanks.

    這實際上是我的下一個問題。現在真的要買回來嗎?這個過程已經開始了嗎?最後,您預計 90 奈米產能擴張的廣泛訂單何時開始?對我來說就這樣了,謝謝。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • With respect to the announced buyback program, we will do that at our convenience to the company. And we have announced it today - that's all I want to say. And on the --

    關於已宣布的回購計劃,我們將根據公司的方便來實施。我們今天已經宣布了這一點——這就是我想說的全部。並且——

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • The 90 nanometer broad-based order kind of purchases that your question -- each customer is different, and clearly 90 nanometer is tough nut to crack for the better customers out there right now. So it's focused on a few, for the ones who have the momentum, technology and impetus to go do that. But they are either placing order or taking delivery of a few, or in intense negotiation with us for new orders right now. Ninety nanometers is a node that we're not frightened of, and our customers are not either. I think the question that will pace the 90-nanometer node deployment will be the ease and the speed of design, not processing. I believe once we went through the 130 kind of barrier as an industry we sold a lot of problems which are relevant for 90. But the issues now which come up for 90 nanometer kind of development is the ability to create and design those circuits of great complexity that will fill a 90 nanometer fab.

    您問的 90 奈米廣泛訂單類型的購買——每個客戶都是不同的,顯然 90 奈米對於目前更好的客戶來說是一個難題。因此,它主要關注少數人,即那些擁有動力、技術和推動力的人。但他們現在要么正在下訂單,要么正在接收少量貨物,或者正在與我們密切協商新訂單。90奈米是一個我們不害怕的節點,我們的客戶也不害怕。我認為,決定 90 奈米節點部署速度的關鍵在於設計的簡易性和速度,而不是處理的簡易性和速度。我相信,一旦我們作為一個行業突破了 130 種障礙,我們就會解決許多與 90 種障礙相關的問題。但現在 90 奈米技術發展面臨的問題是,是否有能力創建和設計能夠填充 90 奈米晶圓廠的極其複雜的電路。

  • So from our point of view that's started already, and our hired [A tolls] are proof of that.

    所以從我們的角度來看,這已經開始了,我們僱用的[A 收費站]就是證明。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • Right, just to follow up on that. Assuming you get an order surge in the fourth quarter, is that largely driven by 90 nanometer capacity, or is it more of a spread between that and 130?

    好的,只是為了跟進這一點。假設第四季度訂單激增,這主要是由 90 奈米產能推動的,還是更多地由 90 奈米和 130 奈米之間的差距所致?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I think it's going to be a spread, because the surge was going to be more a surge for existing nodes, and that's 130, 150, and some at 90, absolutely.

    我認為這將是一個擴散,因為激增的將是現有節點的激增,絕對是 130、150,有些甚至是 90。

  • Jay Deahna - Analyst

    Jay Deahna - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Ali Irani. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    下一個問題來自阿里·伊拉尼先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Ali Irani - Analyst

    Ali Irani - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning, good afternoon. It's Ali Irani with CIBC World Markets. I'm hoping you could do two things. One, if you could please clarify the gross bookings versus the cancellation for us, Doug. And if you could talk about the foundry market? Historically these have been your most forward-looking customers in they'll be getting complex and pretty high on capacity utilization. And your positioning with the foundry vendors has strengthened in the lead with GSM and UMC and IBM. Could you give us an idea of how you see that business come back and how you see the business split between 200 mm and 300 mm please?

    是的,早上好,下午好。我是加拿大帝國商業銀行全球市場的阿里‧伊拉尼 (Ali Irani)。我希望你能做兩件事。首先,道格,請您為我們澄清一下總預訂量與取消預訂量之間的關係。能談談代工市場嗎?從歷史上看,這些都是您最具前瞻性的客戶,因為他們將變得複雜並且產能利用率相當高。而你們在代工供應商中的地位已經得到加強,在 GSM、UMC 和 IBM 的帶領下。您能否告訴我們您如何看待該業務的復甦以及您如何看待 200 毫米和 300 毫米之間的業務分配?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay, I will take the first part of your question. I may come back to you to clarify the second part. So you asked about I think the gross bookings in the second quarter?

    好的,我將回答你問題的第一部分。我可能會回來向您澄清第二部分。所以你問我認為第二季的總預訂量是多少?

  • Ali Irani - Analyst

    Ali Irani - Analyst

  • The gross bookings and the cancellations.

    總預訂量和取消量。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Let me explain one thing, and you may have picked this up from the web cast. I don't know if you've heard it or not. We shoed a backlog of 62 systems that is at €670m at the end of the Q2. I think the number we projected at the end of Q1, which we told you was 82 or 87 -- 87 sorry. Those two are not strictly comparable and in many ways we need to explain this. In the past we have always given you the unfiltered absolute orders we have from customers, an expurgated version if you like, for 12 months forward. Because there has been such a flurry in the past year and a half of push outs, cancellations, reschedules, all those things which really damage the value of that information to because it's mutilated almost before you're heard it, we've actually taken the trouble this time round to clean it up.

    讓我解釋一下一件事,你可能已經從網路廣播中了解到了這一點。我不知道你有沒有聽過。截至第二季末,我們已經積壓了 62 個系統,價值達 6.7 億歐元。我認為我們在第一季末預測的數字是 82 或 87——抱歉,是 87。這兩者並不具有嚴格的可比性,我們需要在許多方面對此進行解釋。過去,我們一直向您提供來自客戶的未經過濾的絕對訂單(如果您願意,也可以提供刪節版),為期 12 個月。因為在過去的一年半中,出現了大量的推遲、取消、重新安排等事件,所有這些事情都嚴重損害了這些信息的價值,因為這些信息幾乎在你聽到之前就被破壞了,所以這次我們確實不遺餘力地對其進行了清理。

  • So we've gone through our order book, and all these order that we took now, we have a signed purchase order for, and we've said, do we know that this customer is going to take this product at this point in time? What's the fab development? What chemistry is exhibiting? Is it due for a push out or a cancellation? And if it, we've taken it out. We've scrubbed it and put it to one side. It's still an order, it's still valid, but we've -- quite frankly we've held that back from the public because they are uncertain order that we don't feel that confident in. and there are between 10 and 20 of those. So that 62, please view it in that light. It is a much cleaner 62 than any previous number we've probably given you in this downturn. Then it's turned out with hindsight to be a lot of soft and flaky orders. We've actually tried to clean those out.

    因此,我們查看了訂單簿,現在我們收到的所有這些訂單,我們都有簽署的採購訂單,我們說過,我們是否知道這個客戶此時會購買該產品?晶圓廠的發展如何?表現出什麼化學現象?是否需要延後或取消?如果有的話,我們已經把它拿出來了。我們已將其擦洗乾淨並放在一邊。它仍然是一項命令,仍然有效,但坦白說,我們沒有向公眾公佈,因為這些命令不確定,我們對這些命令沒有信心。這樣的命令有 10 到 20 條。因此,請 62 從這個角度來看待它。62 這個數字比我們在這次經濟衰退中給出的任何數字都要清晰得多。事後看來,這些訂單都是些軟弱且不可靠的訂單。我們實際上已經嘗試清除它們。

  • So that kind of should help you with a bit of -- so when you talk about the gross and net bookings and so on, bear in mind that we've already taken out good firm orders, that most companies would kind of put on the table as being firm orders [indiscernible] which are not -- which we think have got some suspicion about them. Okay. And that's between 10 and 20.

    所以這應該會對你有所幫助——所以當你談論總預訂量和淨預訂量等等時,請記住,我們已經拿出了很好的確定訂單,大多數公司都會把這些訂單當作確定訂單擺在桌面上[音頻不清晰],但我們認為這些訂單存在一些懷疑。好的。這個數字在 10 到 20 之間。

  • Ali Irani - Analyst

    Ali Irani - Analyst

  • Absolutely. And is that closer to 20 or closer to 10?

    絕對地。那這個數字是比較接近 20 還是更接近 10?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • It's closer to the middle, between the two.

    它更接近中間,介於兩者之間。

  • Ali Irani - Analyst

    Ali Irani - Analyst

  • Right. That's good enough. And on the foundry side, you know, the point that I was making as your positioning with the top three foundries certainly has strengthened. And you have a strong position in China as well in the utilization rates generally are rising. So I'm thinking of your business at IBM, at CSM, at UMC, at [Tower Semi] as well as at SMIC. Could you give us some idea of the mix of business being booked 300 mm versus 200 mm as you see it come back? And if you could give us an idea of will this remain in your opinion, a [tons] driven foundry business in the next couple of quarters? Orders for delivery in the next three months.

    正確的。這就足夠了。在代工方面,您知道,我提出的觀點是,您與前三大代工企業的定位肯定已經得到加強。而且你們在中國也佔據強勢地位,利用率普遍在上升。所以我正在考慮你們在 IBM、CSM、UMC、[Tower Semi] 以及 SMIC 的業務。您能否向我們介紹一下 3 億和 2 億訂單業務的組合情況?您能否告訴我們,您認為在接下來的幾個季度裡,這是否仍是一個由 [噸位] 驅動的代工業務?未來三個月內交付的訂單。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • That's quite a convoluted question you have there. You know the foundries are still using a lot of 200 mm, so a lot of foundry orders are coming in 200 mm. But the UMCI order - I'm looking to my colleagues here - I think was a 300 mm order. So we're seeing increasingly now the foundries beginning to come on hot and heavy with 300 mm. And as you know the announcement of SMIC in Beijing - almost a year ago they announced it now actually - is for a 300 mm investment, and we are contending for that order, and IBM also, which is also a foundry.

    你這個問題相當複雜。您知道鑄造廠仍在大量使用 200 毫米,因此許多鑄造廠訂單都是 200 毫米。但是 UMCI 訂單 — — 我正在向我的同事們查看 — — 我認為是 300 毫米訂單。因此,我們現在越來越多地看到鑄造廠開始大力推廣 300 毫米產品。如你所知,中芯國際在北京宣布——實際上他們大約在一年前就宣布了——將投資 300 毫米晶圓,我們正在爭奪這個訂單,IBM 也是一家晶圓代工廠。

  • So increasingly foundries are switching towards 300 mm. But I think if this thing turns heavily and soon you will find they're wanting to back fill their 200 mm fabs. Because they're cost effective still, and so on. So it's difficult to extrapolate what may happen in the next two quarters, which is what you asked me to do. So I'm going to sit on the fence here and say, foundries are taking a lot of -- well small amounts of 300 mm and small amounts of 200 mm, and it's your guess is as good as mine how that will change if there's a rapid upswing - although I don't expect a rapid upswing.

    因此,越來越多的鑄造廠開始轉向 300 毫米。但我認為,如果事情發展到嚴重地步,你很快就會發現他們想要填補他們的 200 毫米晶圓廠。因為它們仍然具有成本效益等等。因此很難推斷接下來兩個季度會發生什麼,而這正是你要求我做的。因此,我在這裡持觀望態度,並說鑄造廠正在大量採購 —— 少量的 300 毫米和少量的 200 毫米,如果出現快速上升,你和我一樣可以猜測這種情況將如何變化 —— 儘管我並不認為會出現快速上升。

  • Ali Irani - Analyst

    Ali Irani - Analyst

  • Great, thank you very much, Doug.

    太好了,非常感謝,道格。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • the next question comes from Mr. Stuart Adrian. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    下一個問題來自 Stuart Adrian 先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Hi there, this is Stuart Adrian from Morgan Stanley. Maybe just a quick follow up on the de-risking of the backlog. When we're looking at the way the backlog has moved by end customer or by geographic region, is there any particular region that has been impacted by this de-risking that would kind of skew shipment and order trends?

    大家好,我是摩根士丹利的 Stuart Adrian。也許只是對積壓風險的降低進行快速跟進。當我們查看最終客戶或地理區域的積壓訂單變化時,是否有任何特定區域受到這種降低風險的影響,從而扭曲了出貨量和訂單趨勢?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • That's Stuart in sunny downtown San Francisco is it?

    那是陽光明媚的舊金山市中心的史都華嗎?

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • It certainly is, yes.

    是的,確實如此。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I can't imagine a guy that would fly to San Francisco rather than avoid our wonderful press conference here in Veldhoven, Stuart, but yes, each one has is own demands. The de-risking was I think -- if you reflect our order book a little bit, but therefore more of it was in Asia. I'm not suggesting that our Asian customers are more kind of prone to this, but they probably are to be honest with you. Also our backlog issue is also an Asian dominated one. So I guess even if you look at the proportionality of it, it was slightly more focused on looking at some of the Asian customers.

    我無法想像有人會為了逃避我們在費爾德霍芬舉行的精彩新聞發布會而飛往舊金山,斯圖爾特,但是是的,每個人都有自己的要求。我認為,降低風險就是──如果你稍微回顧我們的訂單,你會發現更多的是在亞洲。我並不是說我們的亞洲客戶更容易受到這種影響,但說實話,他們可能確實如此。此外,我們的積壓問題也是亞洲問題所主導。所以我想,即使你從比例上看,它也更側重於一些亞洲客戶。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Okay. And then second question on inventories, can you just talk about the mix between finished goods and work in progress? And also if you feel strategic necessity to hold sort of a higher level of finished goods inventories to meet the short lead times of your customers at the moment.

    好的。第二個問題是關於庫存的,可以談談成品和在製品之間的組合嗎?此外,如果您覺得有必要持有更高水準的成品庫存,以滿足當前客戶的短交貨期。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • My colleagues will tell me the mix. But basically the philosophical part of your question is, do we want to hold more finished goods to meet short-term demands? I'll give you my answer, and I hope my colleagues will agree on this one, no. We're quite determined now to be much more ruthless and disciplined in the inventory hold to bring it down to acceptable and compatible peer levels. And clearly we always like to have a bit of finished good, but we're not making significant investments in building speculative products anymore. Unless it's the brand newest one, which often carry a longer lead time through our suppliers, then we may order a few. I'm talking only a few, a handful or less of for instance, lenses or later stages, in anticipation of new orders. And they are low risk because it's the newest product.

    我的同事會告訴我混合狀況。但從根本上來說,你的問題的哲學部分是,我們是否想持有更多的成品來滿足短期需求?我的答案是,我希望我的同事們也會同意這一點,不是。我們現在決心在庫存控制方面採取更嚴厲和嚴格的措施,將其降至可接受的、與同行相容的水平。顯然,我們總是喜歡擁有一些成品,但我們不再對投機性產品的開發進行大量投資。除非是最新的產品(透過我們的供應商通常需要更長的交貨時間),否則我們可能會訂購一些。我說的只是少數,例如少數或更少的鏡頭或後期階段,以期待新的訂單。而且由於這是最新產品,所以風險較低。

  • But basically we don't have a policy at all of holding finished goods inventory. Any finished goods inventory we have is frankly a mistake, and we're reducing it.

    但基本上我們根本沒有持有成品庫存的政策。坦白說,我們擁有的任何成品庫存都是錯誤的,我們正在減少它。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Stuart, just to give you kind of insight into the breakdown, it's about 60% -- 50% to 60% generally, and now it's close to 60%, which is [indiscernible] work in process, and some finished goods left that are basically available for sales or are dead, because we have orders on the books. And the remainder is step ups and is inventory we are building for our R&D group, because they're prototypes of new generation tools that prototypes will be shipped to the customers later on. That's more R&D inventory. So the majority of our inventory, that's close to 60%, is inventory we keep for, you could say, the order portfolio after sales.

    斯圖爾特,只是為了讓你了解一下細目分類,大約是 60%——一般是 50% 到 60%,現在接近 60%,這是 [音頻不清晰] 在製品,還有一些剩下的成品,基本上可以出售或已經停產,因為我們有訂單。其餘的則是逐步增加的,是我們正在為研發團隊建立的庫存,因為它們是新一代工具的原型,這些原型稍後將發送給客戶。那是更多的研發庫存。因此,我們的大部分庫存(接近 60%)是我們保留的庫存,可以說是售後訂單組合。

  • Stuart Adrian - Analyst

    Stuart Adrian - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • the next question comes from Mr. Sekar Promenik (ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自 Sekar Promenik 先生(音)。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Sekar Hominick - Analyst

    Sekar Hominick - Analyst

  • Hi, it's Prudential Equity Group. Doug, a question for you. Could we say that given the target detector we see it selling so few units that part of what's happening is a significant reuse in tools because people have been able to reduce K1 factor by mask enhancement? And then I have a question for Peter.

    您好,我是 Prudential Equity Group。道格,問你一個問題。我們是否可以說,鑑於目標探測器的銷量如此之少,部分原因是工具的大量重複使用,因為人們已經能夠透過掩模增強來降低 K1 因子?然後我有一個問題要問彼得。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I think you've put your finger on one of the reasons for that. I used the expression in one of my slides, sweating the assets. Our customers are really burning the midnight oil, 160-odd hours a week usage, reducing unnecessary maintenance to a minimum. And sweating the assets more and more to get more out of them. They are also taking advantage of design tweaks to improve the yield, you know, change a resistor here and a capacitor there, and improve the yield by 2, 3, 4, 5% and they're also taking advantage, as you say, of the K1 factor reduction improvements that we offer, quite frankly. We have stopped wear capability that allows that. We have hardware improvement that allow that. It's part of our drive this year. We have a [full] K1 program which is designed to give our customers the ability to push our equipment to the very edge of its capability, by exploiting these techniques. And we're proud of that, we're the only companies doing that right now that I'm aware of. It's very successful.

    我想你已經指出了其中一個原因。我在一張投影片中使用了這個表達方式,為資產擔憂。我們的客戶確實在熬夜工作,每週使用 160 多個小時,將不必要的維護減少到最低。並不斷加大對資產的投入,以獲得更多收益。他們還利用設計調整來提高產量,你知道,在這裡改變一個電阻,在那裡改變一個電容器,將產量提高 2%、3%、4%、5%,而且正如你所說,他們還利用了我們提供的 K1 因子降低改進,坦白說。我們已經停止了允許這種磨損的能力。我們對硬體進行了改進,從而實現了這一點。這是我們今年活動的一部分。我們有一個[完整的] K1 計劃,旨在透過利用這些技術,讓我們的客戶能夠將我們的設備發揮到其最大能力。我們對此感到自豪,據我所知,我們是目前唯一這樣做的公司。這是非常成功的。

  • You may say it's cannibalizing our sales. Well it's part of the customers service program, and ultimately those customers will reward us with orders when the time is right. So we definitely are allowing customers to utilize their assets much more aggressively in this period of time, yes. And encouraging it and proving new facilities to do that.

    您可能會說它正在蠶食我們的銷售額。這是客戶服務計畫的一部分,最終這些客戶會在適當的時候透過訂單來回報我們。因此,我們確實允許客戶在這段時間內更積極地利用他們的資產,是的。並鼓勵這樣做並提供新的設施來實現這一點。

  • Sekar Hominick - Analyst

    Sekar Hominick - Analyst

  • But doesn't it kind of set up [indiscernible] that the peak units on the cycle would be most probably significantly lower than what we did in 2000?

    但這是否意味著 [音訊不清晰] 該週期的峰值單位很可能比 2000 年的峰值單位要低得多?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes. I thin if you look at the peak of 2000 there are around 1200 litho tools shipped. I think the next peak in whenever it's going to be, I think DataQuest (ph) say in two year's time, will be more like 750 to 800 tools shipped. Of course they're much more expensive tools, probably carrying almost twice the average selling price, and therefore the value will be higher. But the peak units will continue I think to come down.

    是的。我認為,如果你看一下 2000 年的峰值,你會發現當時大約有 1200 台光刻工具被運出。我認為下一個高峰無論何時出現,我認為 DataQuest (ph) 表示兩年後,工具出貨量將會達到 750 到 800 個。當然,它們是更昂貴的工具,可能售價幾乎是平均售價的兩倍,因此價值會更高。但我認為峰值單位將繼續下降。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • But that's not so much only the result of let's say ultra of low K1 applications, it's also the productivity of those tools are significantly better.

    但這不僅僅是低 K1 應用程式的結果,還因為這些工具的生產效率顯著提高。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • And 300 mm of course.

    當然是 300 毫米。

  • Sekar Hominick - Analyst

    Sekar Hominick - Analyst

  • Right. A question for Peter. On the margins, you're going to take breakeven to 130 units. Could you give us what the trend on Semicon has been -- you know, 40% growth from current levels to 60%, then 100%, you can do that on a unit once. Where you see your gross margins trend?

    正確的。問彼得一個問題。從利潤率來看,你將達到 130 個單位的損益平衡。您能否告訴我們半導體產業的趨勢如何?您知道,從目前的水平增長 40% 到 60%,然後是 100%,您可以在一個單位上做到這一點。您如何看待您的毛利率趨勢?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Well not being a participant in that Semicon discussion, I think we have said, and we stand by this, that in the next peak, whenever that may be, we clearly have an aim [indiscernible] with const reduction programs we have. Plans where we see our sales price going and cost reduction goes, that will bring our peak margins to the one that we've seen in previous peaks. And of course there is an internals chance to beat those. And I said it earlier, the biggest driver for gross margins is the volume. When volume comes back you will see definitely an improvement of the gross margin, especially when you combine that with the aggressive cost of goods programs that we have running.

    好吧,雖然我不是 Semicon 討論的參與者,但我認為我們已經說過,並且我們堅持這一點,即在下一個高峰期,無論何時,我們都會明確地有一個目標 [音頻不清晰],並實施我們現有的 const 減少計劃。我們的計劃是,我們的銷售價格會上漲,成本會降低,這將使我們的利潤高峰達到我們之前所見過的峰值。當然,從內部來看,還是有機會打敗這些的。我之前說過,毛利率的最大驅動力是銷量。當銷量回升時,你肯定會看到毛利率的提高,特別是當你將其與我們正在進行的積極的商品成本計劃結合時。

  • Sekar Hominick - Analyst

    Sekar Hominick - Analyst

  • Okay. Great.

    好的。偉大的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Matthew Gale. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自馬修·蓋爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • Goldman Sachs. Good afternoon. A question regarding 300 mm versus your 22 mm machines. Could you give an idea of what the difference in the gross margin for the machines stands at, at the current time? And then also comment on where we stand with the 2.5% research credit that you had been paying on all 300 mm machines? And then finally just an update on the other cycle times for each of the two?

    高盛。午安.關於 300 毫米與 22 毫米機器的一個問題。您能否介紹一下目前機器的毛利率差異是多少?然後您再評論一下,對於您為所有 300 毫米機器支付的 2.5% 研究信貸,我們的立場如何?最後,僅更新兩者各自的其他週期時間?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes. Some of that stuff we won't give you precise amount. But I will come to your question the other way around. So we don't give product gross margins out - competitive obviously. But if you look at the gross margin for any machine that we make right now, it's to some extent the value that loaded to the gross margin is a function of volume. And it's not a function whether it's an 8 inch or 12 inch, it's kind of the volume effect swamps it. And so each product does have a different gross margin, but the big difference for every product is the fact we're not making as many as we could make with our existing overheads - which is why we're taking action to reduce our costs to improve that, obviously. So it's volume basing rather than a difference between this machine and that machine based thing. That answers the first part of your question.

    是的。對於其中的一些東西我們不會告訴你精確的金額。但我會反過來回答你的問題。因此,我們不會給出產品毛利率——顯然是有競爭力的。但如果你看一下我們現在生產的任何機器的毛利率,你會發現,在某種程度上,毛利率的價值取決於產量。並且,無論是 8 英寸還是 12 英寸,這都不是一個功能問題,而是一種音量效果問題。因此,每種產品的毛利率確實不同,但每種產品的最大區別在於,我們在現有管理費用下生產的產量沒有達到我們所能生產的產量,這顯然就是我們採取行動降低成本以改善這種情況的原因。因此,這是基於體積的,而不是基於這台機器和那台機器之間的差異。這回答了你問題的第一部分。

  • Your second part was what again? I didn't take a note of it?

    你的第二部分又是什麼?我沒注意到嗎?

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • the research credit, I think it was around 2.5% that you're paying for the 300 mm machines?

    研究信貸,我認為您為 300 毫米機器支付的費用約為 2.5%?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Yes, that has decreased in the second quarter to around a percent. Slightly above that. But we didn't sell a lot of 300 mm tools, and I think the remainder will go into the third quarter, but it will be less than a percent impact on the gross margin, closer to 0.5%. And then it's over. So it is the remaining tail end.

    是的,第二季這比例下降到了百分之一左右。略高於此。但我們的 300 毫米工具銷量並不多,我認為剩餘的銷量將進入第三季度,但對毛利率的影響將不到百分之一,接近 0.5%。然後一切都結束了。所以它是剩餘的尾端。

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • And then cycle times for the two?

    那麼兩者的循環時間是多少呢?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Oh, cycle times for 8 inch and 12 inch?

    哦,8 英寸和 12 英寸的循環時間?

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I've quoted these before, so basically 8 inch cycle time is less of a pressure to do it better, we can do it in 6, 7, 8 weeks, that time scale. We've done it in one or two less than that, but that's the kind of normal time there. And on the 12 inch we set up a year ago at 26 or 20-odd weeks. We're now down -- I think we're still in double-digit weeks, but only just, so it's in the 10, 11, 12 week timeframe, something like that.

    我之前已經引用過這些,所以基本上 8 英寸的周期時間對做得更好的壓力較小,我們可以在 6、7、8 週的時間內完成。我們用比這少一到兩天的時間完成了任務,但那是正常的時間。我們在一年前就設置了 12 英寸,時間是 26 或 20 多周。我們現在處於下降趨勢——我認為我們仍然處於兩位數的幾週,但只是略有下降,所以它處於 10、11、12 週的時間範圍內,諸如此類。

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • And then maybe just one last question with regards to the restructuring program you announced. Where do you see your current capacity, that is [indiscernible] capacity you can do with the internal people, versus what you can do by bringing on temporary workers with the current facilities? And where does that go down to after you cut the 550 workers?

    然後也許我只想問最後一個問題,關於您宣布的重組計劃。您認為您目前的產能如何?即您利用內部人員所能達到的產能,還是您利用現有設施引進臨時工所能達到的產能?那麼,裁掉 550 名員工之後,這數字還會下降嗎?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • It's a difficult one to answer precisely. Just given me the problem and I will make the output, okay. But basically 200 systems per year, if that were demanded of us in the next few years - and I hope it will be - would be achievable -- maybe we'd have to bring in a little bit of extra help here and there, but by and large that's manageable.

    這是一個很難準確回答的問題。只要給我問題,我就會輸出,好的。但基本上每年 200 個系統,如果在未來幾年內要求我們這樣做 - 我希望能夠實現 - 將是可以實現的 - 也許我們需要在這裡或那裡引入一些額外的幫助,但總的來說這是可以實現的。

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • Do you have the ability to quickly add in temporary workers? Or if you saw substantial ramp in the, let's say --

    您是否有能力快速增加臨時工?或者如果你看到大幅的斜坡,比如說——

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes, we have that ability, and I do hope we will need it. But I'm not to hopeful. We have the ability certainly to do that, yes, and we've proven that in the past.

    是的,我們有這個能力,而且我確實希望我們會需要它。但我並不抱太大希望。是的,我們當然有能力做到這一點,而且我們過去已經證明了這一點。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Part of the reorganization is also focused on adding the flexibility to get those temporary workers on board relatively quick. Whereby we will use the capacity available in terms of technical labor that we have in other parts of the company that will assist in that first ramp. So we have a kind of a changeover period in which people already working in the company now in different functions will add into production. And then we have to try to actually move in the temporary workers.

    重組的一部分也著重於增加彈性,以便讓臨時工相對較快地上崗。我們將利用公司其他部門的技術勞動力來協助完成首次產能提升。因此,我們有一個過渡期,在此期間,公司中不同職能部門的工作人員將加入生產。然後我們必須設法真正調動臨時工。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Don't forget, Matthew, that this reduction in people that we're talking about today is across all the functional spectrum, it's not just manufacturing people. And with respect to some departments you know, they're not as relevant to an increase if the volume increases. They don't need more CEO's for instance [indiscernible]. So don't think that the fact we're taking out this number of people is crippling our ability to ramp up, it is not, we would not do that.

    馬修,別忘了,我們今天談論的裁員涉及所有職能領域的人員,而不只是製造業的人員。對於某些部門來說,如果數量增加,它們與增加的相關性就不那麼大了。例如,他們不需要更多的 CEO [音訊不清晰]。所以,不要以為我們撤出這麼多人的事實會削弱我們擴大規模的能力,事實並非如此,我們不會這麼做。

  • Matthew Gale - Analyst

    Matthew Gale - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Uche Orji. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    下一個問題來自 Uche Orji 先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • Alright, it's Uche Orji here from JP Morgan. Just a few questions for Peter. Peter, can I ask you about the [calculation] in the quarter, how much of that came from the [bridge fund] or the tax credit, and how much of that came from the prepayments of [indiscernible], so we can just get a clean picture of how much came from the operational improvements?

    好的,我是摩根大通的 Uche Orji。我只想問彼得幾個問題。彼得,我可以問您有關本季度的[計算]情況嗎,其中有多少來自[過渡基金]或稅收抵免,有多少來自[音頻不清晰]的預付款,這樣我們就可以清楚地了解有多少來自運營改進?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Tax credit was 170 and prepayment [indiscernible] were a few million [indiscernible] margins. Because we didn't receive a lot of [indiscernible] in the second quarter. There are a few -- there was a few million, about €170m from tax. So when you look at the cash flow statements we generated cash in the second quarter of about €211m. Whereby we had €54m in net income loss, if you take out the depreciation and the amortization. Then you have an increase in the cash due to change of working capital, about €238m. So if you take out the €170m, and a couple of million from [indiscernible], then the remainder is from pure working capital elements.

    稅收抵免為 170,預付款 [聽不清楚] 為數百萬 [聽不清楚] 利潤。因為我們在第二季度沒有收到很多[音頻不清晰]。有幾百萬,稅收大約有 1.7 億歐元。因此,當您查看現金流量表時,我們在第二季度產生了約 2.11 億歐元的現金。如果扣除折舊和攤銷,我們的淨收入損失為 5,400 萬歐元。然後由於營運資本的變化,現金增加約 2.38 億歐元。因此,如果你拿出 1.7 億歐元,並從 [音訊不清楚] 中拿出幾百萬美元,那麼剩餘的部分就來自純營運資本要素。

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • Right. Just one other question. It's with regards to something that's been talked about at some points during the quarter. It is regarding what are your customers at some point considering buying options on the tools as a way to reduce delivery time? Also a way for you to manage working capital going forward? Is there any update on that type of program being considered by ASML?

    正確的。還有一個問題。這是與本季某些時候討論過的事情有關。這是關於您的客戶在某些時候是否考慮購買工具選項以減少交貨時間?這也是您未來管理營運資金的方法嗎?ASML 正在考慮的此類計劃有什麼最新消息嗎?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Yes. And that program is starting to show fruits and the results are coming in. So companies that are placing [indiscernible] and are doing still that, and that has positive effects on the cash flow.

    是的。該計劃已開始顯現成效並初見成效。因此,那些正在進行 [音訊不清晰] 並且仍在這樣做的公司,會對現金流產生積極的影響。

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • But do you have any sense as to when this could become material?

    但您是否知道什麼時候這才會成為現實?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • I think that's a difficult question to answer. It will become more material when customers increasingly see the benefits of having an option that secures their production flow. And that will guarantee a certain delivery time. So I would say when customers want to place their bets, and want to place their hedges, then it becomes I think more interesting in terms of more interesting instruments. So it really has to do with when we see the upturn come, and when they feel the pressure.

    我認為這是一個很難回答的問題。當客戶越來越多地看到擁有一個可以確保其生產流程安全的選項的好處時,它將變得更加重要。這樣就能保證一定的交貨時間。所以我想說,當客戶想要下注並進行對沖時,我認為就更有趣的工具而言,它會變得更有趣。所以這實際上與我們何時看到經濟好轉以及何時感受到壓力有關。

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • Thank you. One last question on the margins of TWINSCAN. [indiscernible] 300 mm tools versus 200 mm, when do you think those margins will equalize? And if we just deliver it forward into the next --

    謝謝。關於 TWINSCAN 邊緣的最後一個問題。 [音訊不清晰] 300 毫米工具與 200 毫米工具相比,您認為這些利潤率何時會持平?如果我們只是將其傳遞到下一個——

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Sorry, I think I covered this one in the last question. First of all we don't --

    抱歉,我想我在上一個問題中已經討論過這個問題了。首先,我們不會——

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • Sorry, I missed - I came in --

    抱歉,我錯過了——我進來了——

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • We don't release individual products margins. And your assumption that the two are not in alignment is an assumption you have made, we haven't said that. I did make a point that the dominant factor in gross margins was volume, not machine mix. So I don't think we want to comment, for obvious reasons on individual machine gross margins. And you may have assumed that there's a difference in the two, 8 inch and 12 inch margins, you may be wrong in that assumption.

    我們不公佈單一產品的利潤率。而您認為兩者不一致的假設是您自己做出的假設,我們沒有這麼說。我確實強調過,毛利率的主要因素是產量,而不是機器組合。因此,出於顯而易見的原因,我認為我們不想對單一機器的毛利率發表評論。您可能認為 8 英吋和 12 英吋邊距之間存在差異,但您的假設可能是錯誤的。

  • Uche Orji - Analyst

    Uche Orji - Analyst

  • Right. Thank you very much.

    正確的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Miss Marisa Baldo. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自瑪麗莎·巴爾多女士。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon, this is Marisa Baldo from SG Securities. I would like to come back on the restructuring measures. Could you comment on the other measures that you will have to take other than headcount reduction that can bring the breakeven down from 160 to 130 units?

    大家下午好,我是 SG Securities 的 Marisa Baldo。我想再談談重組措施。除了裁員以外,您能否評論您還必須採取哪些其他措施,將損益平衡點從 160 個單位降至 130 個單位?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Yes, I think it is not only the headcount because when you say 550 people then you apply an average cost, and you won't get to the cost reduction. It is about 11% in the headcount, but we are talking about 20% in total costs. It means we are taking all the fixed costs now, lower running costs. At present we are two compounds here, and [indiscernible] we will go to one. The same is true in the United States, so we're doing all these things. So you are talking about close to 20% cost reduction. And on top of that we have an aggressive cost reduction program. You will not get to 130 by only letting go of 550 people, you have to do a lot of things. Which is addressing the rest of the cost base, and especially also the cost of goods.

    是的,我認為這不僅僅是員工人數的問題,因為當你說 550 人時,你會應用平均成本,而你不會降低成本。雖然在員工人數上佔比約為 11%,但在總成本上卻佔 20%。這意味著我們現在承擔所有固定成本,降低營運成本。目前我們這裡有兩個院落,[音訊不清楚]我們將去其中一個。美國也是同樣的情況,所以我們正在做所有這些事情。所以您說的是成本降低接近 20%。除此之外,我們還有一項積極的成本削減計劃。僅裁掉 550 人是無法讓員工人數達到 130 人的,你還有很多事情要做。這是為了解決其餘的成本基礎,尤其是商品成本。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • Yes, okay, thank you. And can you please come back and maybe give us a guidance on R&D and SG&A [indiscernible] for the coming two quarters, please? I understand --

    是的,好的,謝謝。您能否回來給我們未來兩季研發和銷售、一般及行政費用 [音頻不清晰] 方面的指導?我明白 -

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • On R&D we are seeing a decrease to our level of about €73m or €74m for this quarter. I think we will also see a further decrease from the R&D spend, largely as a result of the stage where the TWINSCAN is. I mean we used to spend over the last 24 months, a lot of money on the TWINSCAN development. That is becoming more and more mature, so we are able to spend less there. And we're more efficient on the other programs, and as the R&D goes down, on an annual basis you can see a reduction of around 10% if you would compare year-on-year.

    在研發方面,本季我們的研發支出下降至約 7,300 萬歐元或 7,400 萬歐元。我認為我們還將看到研發支出的進一步減少,這主要是由於 TWINSCAN 所處的階段。我的意思是,在過去的 24 個月裡,我們在 TWINSCAN 開發上投入了大量資金。它正變得越來越成熟,因此我們可以在那裡減少開支。而且,我們在其他項目上的效率更高,隨著研發費用的減少,如果與去年同期相比,每年的減少幅度約為 10%。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • You mean 2004 versus 2003?

    您指的是 2004 年與 2003 年嗎?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Yes, I would say 2003 versus 2002.

    是的,我認為是 2003 年與 2002 年的對比。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • And on SG&A you say a significant drop in SG&A costs in the second quarter. We do think that we can maintain that level throughout the rest of the year, and improve on that as we go more towards the end of the year. Because the effects of the restructuring under SG&A, because of the time it will take to take some of those costs our, and also to get the 550 jobs out, it will take some time, and you will see that [indiscernible] in Q1 of '04. So the big effect of that restructuring will not be noticeable in SG&A in this quarter. For this quarter we should be about level with Q2.

    關於銷售、一般及行政費用,您說第二季銷售、一般及行政費用大幅下降。我們確實認為我們可以在今年剩餘時間內保持這一水平,並且隨著年底的臨近,這一水平會有所提高。由於銷售、一般和行政費用重組的影響,由於需要時間來消除其中的一些成本,並且要裁掉 550 個工作崗位,所以這需要一些時間,你將在 2004 年第一季度看到這一點。因此,重組對本季銷售、一般及行政費用的影響不會很明顯。本季我們的業績應該與第二季持平。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • And last question, just a confirmation question. The soft orders you mentioned, the 10 to 20 soft orders you mentioned, were they included in the backlog at the end of Q1.

    最後一個問題,只是確認問題。您提到的軟訂單,也就是您提到的 10 到 20 個軟訂單,是否包含在第一季末的積壓訂單中。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Marisa Baldo - Analyst

    Marisa Baldo - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Diana we have 109 minutes left, and I am conscious there are quite a few people using more than one question. Is there a long queue of questions? If can go back to one each, is that going to give everyone the chance to ask the question?

    戴安娜,我們還剩下 109 分鐘,我意識到有不少人使用了不只一個問題。是不是有很多問題需要解答?如果可以每人回到一個問題,那麼是否每個人都有機會提出問題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, we have approximately 12 questions to go actually.

    是的,實際上我們還有大約 12 個問題要回答。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • So I am going to be strict them please, now. You get one question each until the time runs out. It's only fair to hold the questions with so many.

    所以現在我要對他們嚴格要求。每個人問一個問題,直到時間用完為止。保留這麼多問題是公平的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, sir. The next question comes from Mr. Nicholas Gaudois. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    謝謝您,先生。下一個問題來自 Nicholas Gaudois 先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Nicholas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicholas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, Nicholas Gaudois from Deutsche Bank. A quick question on your systems, Doug. In H1 you shipped about 19 systems. You seem to agree that it's actually a bit of a structural change for the company in seeing more new systems in the past. What kind of levels should we think about H2? Should it be around flat or could we see a decrease sequentially?

    是的,你好,我是德意志銀行的 Nicholas Gaudois。關於你的系統,我問一個簡單的問題,道格。在上半年,你們交付了大約 19 個系統。您似乎同意,對於公司來說,在過去看到更多新系統實際上是一種結構性變化。我們應該從哪些層面來考慮 H2?它應該保持平穩還是會環比下降?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • The best guess I can give you is it could be a similar number. Actually it was quite high in Q2, so probably to be realistic, Q3 is always a dullish quarter with holidays in Europe and so on, I think it's probably not going to be beaten in Q3, in fact this could well be less than that in Q3.

    我能給出的最佳猜測是它可能是一個相似的數字。實際上,第二季度的銷售額相當高,所以從現實情況來看,第三季度總是一個比較平淡的季度,因為歐洲有假期等等,我認為第三季度的銷售額可能不會超過這個數字,事實上,這個數字可能會低於第三季度的銷售額。

  • Nicholas Gaudois - Analyst

    Nicholas Gaudois - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Alan Bruno. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    下一個問題來自艾倫·布魯諾先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Alan Bruno - Analyst

    Alan Bruno - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, Alan Bruno from [indiscernible] Securities. I wonder if as consumers now seem to reduce the order lead times, if in the coming quarters we will see less difference between new systems ASPs, and the backlog ASPs?

    下午好,我是[音頻不清晰]證券公司的艾倫·布魯諾。我想知道,由於消費者現在似乎縮短了訂單交付週期,在未來幾季中,我們是否會看到新系統 ASP 和積壓 ASP 之間的差異縮小?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I think the answer is yes, because in many ways what we see in the backlog now is what we're going to get. It's a very [indiscernible] backlog, as we've said, 90%. [indiscernible] 62 clean orders for the second half -- for the year, 12 months out are required in the second half. So you're probably right that -- But I think it will get slightly richer perhaps with the leading edge -- 1200 products one of my colleagues is telling me here - but basically yes, you're right.

    我認為答案是肯定的,因為從很多方面來看,我們現在看到的積壓工作就是我們將要得到的。正如我們所說,這是一個非常[音頻不清晰]的積壓,90%。 [音訊不清楚] 下半年有 62 份清潔訂單 - 全年下半年需要 12 個月的訂單。所以你可能是對的——但我認為隨著前沿技術的進步,它可能會變得更加豐富——我的一位同事在這裡告訴我有 1200 種產品——但基本上,是的,你是對的。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • On the other hand some of the [indiscernible] that we are planning are also for some [indiscernible], which will take it out. But I mean it's certainly a good indication.

    另一方面,我們正在計劃的一些[音頻不清晰]也是為了一些[音頻不清晰],這將把它拿出來。但我認為這確實是一個好兆頭。

  • Alan Bruno - Analyst

    Alan Bruno - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Mark Fitzgerald. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自馬克·菲茨傑拉德先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

    Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

  • A two-part question. Can you tell us what your utilization rates are across your tools at this point, that are out in the field? And are there any inventory issues with systems in crates at your customers?

    這個問題由兩個部分組成。您能否告訴我們目前您在現場使用的工具的使用率是多少?您的客戶那裡的板條箱系統是否有庫存問題?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • On the utilization rates we don't give you that because obviously it's confidential.

    關於利用率,我們不會向您提供,因為這顯然是保密的。

  • Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

    Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

  • Not looking by customers, but across the --

    不是從顧客的角度看,而是從──

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes, it is really by customer, so you're getting an average therefore from me. It's trending upwards, which is good news. And it's been consistently trending up now for a few quarters. I don't memorize the whole thing, but I'd say it's say -- let me say customers who have been cautious with their expenditure it's well over 80% now. And for one or two others it's down in the 65%, 70% region. But the average is between the two and it's trending up nicely. So with the gradual reduction of that [indiscernible] capacity we will see orders I think flowing through more consistently, maybe later this year or perhaps in next year.

    是的,這確實是根據客戶而定的,因此您從我這裡得到的是平均值。它呈上升趨勢,這是好消息。並且幾個季度以來,該趨勢一直呈上升趨勢。我記不住全部內容,但我想說的是——讓我說,那些對支出持謹慎態度的顧客現在已經超過 80% 了。另外有一、兩個國家的比例則下降到了 65% 到 70% 之間。但平均值介於兩者之間,且呈現良好上升趨勢。因此,隨著 [音訊不清晰] 產能的逐漸減少,我們將看到訂單更加穩定地流動,也許是在今年晚些時候,也許是在明年。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • And on the [indiscernible] I could say I don't think --

    關於[音頻不清晰],我可以說我不認為—

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I think they've all been uncrated.

    我認為它們都已經拆箱了。

  • Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

    Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. John Pitzer. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自約翰‧皮策先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • John Pitzer - Analyst

    John Pitzer - Analyst

  • Yes, it's John Pitzer with First Boston. Doug, just real quickly, can you give us a sense what unit level on the booking front you will go back to your customers and start quoting much longer lead times? I'm just trying to get a sense at what point or what threshold point your customers start to fear getting slotted with longer lead time.

    是的,他是第一波士頓的約翰‧皮策。道格,您能否快速地告訴我們,在預訂方面,您會在哪個單位層級向客戶回饋並開始引用更長的交貨時間?我只是想知道在什麼時候或什麼臨界點,您的客戶開始擔心更長的交貨時間。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Well some of the leading edge products, John, that's the position today actually. We do try to apply a measure of discipline on this, on some of the leading edge with problems and so on. There is a lot of demand out there relatively speaking, it's not overwhelming, and we do use a discipline control to manufacturing and order placement. On the others it's a little bit easier. I think once we get up to 90, 100 systems on the backlog, 110, then we feel much happier, and perhaps so will you if they're good orders, and we begin to talk about, hey, times are getting different now and it's time you started to take more responsibility for longer lead time orders. And we're going to start talking about allocation and slot lists and so on. But we're a way from that, yet.

    嗯,一些前沿產品,約翰,這實際上就是今天的立場。我們確實嘗試對此採取一定程度的紀律,對一些存在問題的前沿領域等等。相對而言,市場需求很大,但並不是壓倒性的,而且我們確實對製造和訂單安排採用了紀律控制。而對於其他方面來說,這就稍微容易了。我認為,一旦我們的積壓系統達到 90、100 個,甚至 110 個,我們就會感到高興得多,如果這些是好訂單,你們也會如此,我們開始談論,嘿,現在時代不同了,是時候開始對更長交貨期的訂單承擔更多責任了。我們將開始討論分配和插槽列表等等。但我們距離這個目標還有很長的路要走。

  • John Pitzer - Analyst

    John Pitzer - Analyst

  • Great, thanks, Doug.

    太好了,謝謝,道格。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Steve Connell. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自史蒂夫·康奈爾先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Steve Connell - Analyst

    Steve Connell - Analyst

  • [indiscernible]. Doug, this may sound like ancient history, but there was a time when you lost market share because you didn't have the capacity to deliver. If there are 800 systems at a peak this time, and you're cutting your capacity back to 250 or 300, and yet you've secured every major customer there is outside of Japan, aren't you setting yourself up for another capacity shortage?

    [音頻不清晰]。道格,這聽起來可能像是古老的歷史,但曾經有一段時間,你因為沒有交付能力而失去了市場份額。如果這次高峰期有 800 個系統,而您將容量削減至 250 或 300 個,但您已經確保了日本以外的所有主要客戶,那麼您不是又要面臨容量短缺了嗎?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • I hope not, Steve, but give me that challenge and I will grab it with alacrity. Yes, if you took 800 as a peak, and by the way that's I think the next peak in 2005, that's probably on the high side. But still, who knows. And if you took our 45% market share in volume as being a good average, then you can work out yourself what we should be shipping. I don't think it's going to be 800 systems, and I don't think it's going to be 800 by quite a way, quite frankly. And also we've got a lot more flexibility now built into our processes. Partially because of that time when we were in danger of losing market share because we couldn't ramp up.

    我希望不是,史蒂夫,但給我這個挑戰,我會欣然接受它。是的,如果以 800 為峰值,順便說一下,我認為下一個峰值是在 2005 年,那麼這個數字可能會偏高。但誰知道呢。如果您將我們的 45% 的市佔率視為一個良好的平均值,那麼您就可以自己計算出我們應該運送多少。我不認為它會是 800 個系統,坦白說,我認為它遠遠達不到 800 個。而且,我們現在的流程也變得更有彈性了。部分原因是當時我們因無法擴大規模而面臨失去市場佔有率的危險。

  • We looked at our supply base, made some serious changes to suppliers, required them to be more flexible. We changed suppliers, we made dual sourcing rather than single sourcing often. You've heard me talk about internal cycle times earlier, Steve, coming down substantially for the 12 inch product. So we think out ability to ramp is far better than it's ever been, even if we do take this a reduction. And I stress again, this reduction in force that we're discussing today are not all manufacturing people, not at all, and therefore some of them will; not be an issue if there's a ramp up, because they're not involved first hand with our ability to output product.

    我們審視了我們的供應基礎,對供應商進行了一些重大調整,要求他們更加靈活。我們更換了供應商,我們經常採用雙重採購而不是單一採購。史蒂夫,您之前聽我討論過內部循環時間,12 吋產品的內部循環時間大幅縮短。因此,我們認為,即使我們確實減少了產量,我們的提升能力也比以往好得多。我再次強調,我們今天討論的裁員對象並不是所有製造業人員,根本不是,因此其中一些人會;如果產量增加,這不是問題,因為他們沒有直接參與我們輸出產品的能力。

  • Steve Connell - Analyst

    Steve Connell - Analyst

  • Great, thanks.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Dan Burkery. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自 Dan Burkery 先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Dan Burkery - Analyst

    Dan Burkery - Analyst

  • UBS O'Connor. Could you clarify exactly what you said regarding the 4.25% convertibles on the analysts presentation? And then the question sort of if you're earning call it 2.5% on your cash, you're paying out 4.25% on those bonds, why wouldn't you be buying them back soon rather than later? Thank you.

    瑞銀奧康納。您能否具體解釋分析師報告中關於 4.25% 可轉換債券的具體內容?那麼問題來了,如果你的現金收益率為 2.5%,而你為這些債券支付的利息為 4.25%,那為什麼不盡快把它們買回來呢?謝謝。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • What we said on the conference was that we've announced the program, and that we will review time by time whether it's an opportune moment for the company to now enter into a transaction like that.

    我們在會議上說,我們已經宣布了該計劃,並且我們將不時審查現在是否是公司進行此類交易的適當時機。

  • Dan Burkery - Analyst

    Dan Burkery - Analyst

  • To announce the program, so you're going -- what exactly is the program, sorry?

    為了宣布該計劃,所以你要——對不起,該計劃到底是什麼?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • The program is our intention to go into I would say buyback, like we said in the press release, sales transactions with market parties, to buy back when there is an opportunity to do so and if it's good for the company. Then we will do so, like you say, what we're earning on our cash balance is slightly more than the 2.5%, that there is an advantage if there is an opportunity. So we need a willing seller and we need a willing property buyer, and that's that. So we will review that as of now, and we will wait for the right moments to do that.

    該計劃是我們打算進行回購,就像我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣,與市場各方進行銷售交易,在有機會並且對公司有利時進行回購。然後我們會這樣做,就像你說的,我們的現金餘額收益略高於 2.5%,如果有機會,就會有優勢。因此,我們需要一個願意出售房產的賣家和一個願意購買房產的買家,就是這樣。因此,我們將從現在開始審查這一點,並等待合適的時機去做這件事。

  • Dan Burkery - Analyst

    Dan Burkery - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot.

    多謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • We are getting here by the way, inputs from people who may be considering offering them to us, so --

    順便說一下,我們在這裡得到了一些可能考慮向我們提供這些建議的人的意見,所以——

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Jim Fontanelli. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自 Jim Fontanelli 先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

    Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

  • Hi, it's Jim Fontanelli [indiscernible]. I just want to know what service revenues were on the quarter, and if you can remind we what they were for the last quarter?

    大家好,我是 Jim Fontanelli [音訊不清楚]。我只是想知道本季的服務收入是多少,您能否提醒我們上一季的服務收入是多少?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • On the quarter it was 70 I believe, the quarter we've just reported on. And the previous quarter I'll just play for time and sing a small song here while they find out for me. No, you wouldn't like my singing - well you would actually.

    就我們剛剛報告的這個季度而言,我相信這個數字是 70。和上一節一樣,我只是打發時間,唱一首小歌,請他們幫我找出答案。不,你不會喜歡我的歌聲——但事實上你會喜歡的。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Yes, it's a 65 in the first quarter, and the difference is [field options]

    是的,第一節比數是 65,差距是 [場地選項]

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • The difference is five.

    差值是五。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • Quite, due to field options.

    相當,由於字段選項。

  • Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

    Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • How are we doing on question, Diana, how many left on your queue?

    戴安娜,我們的問題進展如何?您的隊列中還剩下多少個問題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We still have four questions - five questions to go.

    我們還有四個問題──五個問題要回答。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay, can we maybe cut the queue off and we'll do those five, one at a time and one each.

    好的,我們可以中斷隊列,然後逐一處理這五個人,每次一個。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay, I will do so, sir. The next question comes from Mr. Randy Groebel (ph). Please state your company name followed by your question.

    好的,先生,我會這麼做的。下一個問題來自 Randy Groebel 先生(音)。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Randy Groebel - Analyst

    Randy Groebel - Analyst

  • Hi it's Randy Groebel from Tudor. I'm slightly confused. I'm under the impression that a year ago you'd cleaned the order book then, so was this orders that had leaked through since then that you've had to clean up, or were these orders that you got subsequently that looked like they weren't going to be required?

    大家好,我是都鐸王朝的蘭迪·格羅貝爾。我有點困惑。我的印像是,一年前您就清理了訂單簿,那麼這些訂單是從那時起洩露出來的,您必須清理的,還是您隨後收到的這些訂單看起來不再需要了?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • You know, how do you tell in advance, Randy, whether the order is clean or not? So we applied certain criteria a year ago to try and weed out the wheat from the chaff to some extent. And we clearly were not aggressive enough in that, and we've learnt with hindsight how our customers can really sometimes give us a well intended order one week and cancel it three months later. And we saw that very graphically in Q2 and Q3 of last year if you think back. So we just applied more stringent criteria. Have we got it fully right this time? Probably not, but every time we tighten the criteria we must get closer to the real number. So we're much more confident now. But yes, there could be still one or two dodgy ones in there.

    你知道,蘭迪,你怎麼提前知道訂單是否乾淨?因此,我們在一年前就採用了某些標準,試圖在某種程度上篩選出優質品。顯然,我們在這方面不夠積極,事後我們才知道,我們的客戶有時真的會在一周內向我們發出一個意圖良好的訂單,然後在三個月後取消​​它。如果你回想一下,我們在去年第二季和第三季就非常清楚地看到了這一點。所以我們只是採用了更嚴格的標準。這次我們完全正確嗎?可能不是,但每次我們收緊標準時,我們都必須更接近真實的數字。所以我們現在更有信心了。但是,是的,其中可能仍然有一兩個可疑的。

  • Randy Groebel - Analyst

    Randy Groebel - Analyst

  • So going forward, would it be any orders you now put on the book, will they be on a much tighter criteria that --?

    那麼展望未來,您現在對這本書的任何訂單,是否會遵循更嚴格的標準——?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • We've certainly made it clear internally, every order we get is signed and sealed by the customer, it goes on the order book. What we choose now to report to you will be a number which we think reflects the confidence of those orders. So we will keep the other orders on the books, but we will not embarrass you by telling you what they are, only to say they were cancelled a week later. If we think there's a chance of a push out or a cancellation or a change to machine type, we will keep it on the books as valid orders, and thank the customers for them. But we'll not report them to you to try and prevent you having to go through the process that we struggle with, how many of these orders are good, what's going to get cancelled, and so on.

    我們內部已經明確表示,我們收到的每一份訂單都經過客戶簽署蓋章,並記錄在訂單簿上。我們現在選擇向您報告的數字將反映出對這些訂單的信心。因此,我們會保留其他訂單,但我們不會告訴您這些訂單是什麼,讓您感到尷尬,只會說它們在一周後被取消了。如果我們認為有可能出現延期、取消或更改機器類型的情況,我們會將其保留為有效訂單,並向客戶表示感謝。但我們不會向您報告這些問題,以試圖阻止您經歷我們費力處理的流程,這些訂單中有多少是好的,哪些會被取消,等等。

  • Randy Groebel - Analyst

    Randy Groebel - Analyst

  • Right, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Kenneth Yap. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自 Kenneth Yap 先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Kenneth Yap - Analyst

    Kenneth Yap - Analyst

  • Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein here. I was just wondering whether you could give us a feel for what number of actual cancellations were during the quarter?

    Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 這裡。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們本季實際取消的數量是多少?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • It's difficult that in that I just don't know off hand. I mean I watch it fairly well but I don't remember the numbers. But also, it isn't just cancellations, they are slowing down. What we get it customer says, we want it in Q4 and then later push it out to Q1 or Q2 to year after. That's not a cancellations it's an order adjustment to the delivery. So we see more of those actually than cancellations. We also get a customer who says, hey, we ordered the 800A, we'd like to change out minds to an 850B. Now is that a cancellation or a -- you know, you have to be a little bit careful on what we talk about here. So we have to wrestle with those things, and I don't want to burden you with our problems, so that's why it's not helpful always to give a straight, oh we say X cancellations. We saw some push outs, some model changes, etc, that's why it's difficult to always be kind of -- Maybe you think that we're out of control here, it's not the case, it's a complex situation to manage.

    這很困難,我暫時還不知道。我的意思是我看得相當清楚,但我不記得數字了。但同時,這不僅僅是取消,而是正在放緩。根據客戶的回饋,我們希望在第四季度實現這一目標,然後將其推遲到明年的第一季或第二季。這不是取消,而是對交貨的訂單調整。因此,我們實際上看到的此類情況比取消的情況要多。我們也遇到過這樣的客戶,他說,嘿,我們訂了 800A,我們想換成 850B。現在,這是取消還是——你知道,你必須對我們在這裡談論的事情稍微小心一點。所以我們必須努力解決這些問題,我不想讓我們的問題成為你們的負擔,所以總是直接給出「哦,我們說 X 取消」這樣的答案是沒有幫助的。我們看到了一些推出、一些模型變化等,這就是為什麼總是很難——也許你認為我們在這裡失控了,但事實並非如此,這是一個複雜的情況。

  • Kenneth Yap - Analyst

    Kenneth Yap - Analyst

  • Sure Okay. Then could you just talk about the trend that you saw in cancellations or --?

    當然可以。那麼你能談談你在取消方面看到的趨勢嗎?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • We see the trend in cancellations reducing. But we also still see not an insignificant trend on delivery time changes. And that's because customers decide they want it a quarter later because their market assessment was wrong, or because their factory has been delayed because of the SARS outbreak or some other issue. So the trend for delaying the orders by a quarter or so is still significant, and hasn't reduced down to minimum levels. But the actual clear cancellations, they've dropped away quite dramatically.

    我們發現取消的趨勢正在減少。但我們仍然看到交貨時間變化的趨勢不容忽視。這是因為客戶決定在一個季度後再購買,因為他們的市場評估是錯誤的,或者因為他們的工廠因 SARS 爆發或其他問題而推遲了生產。因此,訂單延遲四分之一左右的趨勢仍然很明顯,並且還沒有降至最低水準。但實際取消的數量卻大幅下降。

  • Kenneth Yap - Analyst

    Kenneth Yap - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you.

    好的,太好了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mr. Pria Costelada. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    下一個問題來自普里亞·科斯特拉達先生。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • Pria Costelada from [indiscernible] Capital. Just a question on -- I may have missed it, but the [indiscernible] loan, can you give me the absolute value? And could you also confirm as you use units, how's the price fix in terms of the lenses? Is that a changing kind of number, or has that been fixed in advance?

    來自[音頻不清晰]首都的 Pria Costelada。只是一個問題——我可能錯過了,但是[音頻不清晰]貸款,你能告訴我絕對價值嗎?您能否確認,當您使用設備時,鏡頭的價格是如何決定的?這是一個不斷變化的數字,還是已經預先決定了?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • The [indiscernible] loan is slightly under €70m.

    [音訊不清楚]貸款略低於7000萬歐元。

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • So it's still around €70m, okay.

    所以它仍然在 7000 萬歐元左右,好吧。

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • It's under that number, but it hasn't decreased as fast as we thought, because of the unit shipment that were [indiscernible].

    它低於這個數字,但下降速度沒有我們想像的那麼快,因為單位出貨量[音訊不清晰]。

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • and in terms of how the -- as you basically use units, that number reduces the ASP on the lens, how is that fixed, and how does that change over time?

    就如何——基本上使用單位而言,這個數字會降低鏡頭的 ASP,它是如何固定的,以及它會如何隨時間變化?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Well the ASP on the lens reflects the fact that they're paying back the loan through the ASP. But regarding - if you're getting at how do we price the lenses without [indiscernible], I'm not going to comment on that.

    嗯,鏡頭上的 ASP 反映了他們透過 ASP 償還貸款的事實。但是關於 - 如果你想知道我們如何在沒有 [音頻不清晰] 的情況下為鏡頭定價,我不會對此發表評論。

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • In particular to that loan as opposed to --?

    特別是相對於那筆貸款——?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Oh, so just a loan issue?

    哦,那麼只是貸款問題嗎?

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • Yes, exactly. I'm basically wanting to -- if the ASP on the lens for that loan on that has been fixed in advance, or is that market issue, or is it market pricing?

    是的,確實如此。我基本上想知道——該貸款的鏡頭平均銷售價格是否已經提前確定,或者這是市場問題,還是市場定價?

  • Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

    Peter Wennink - EVP & CFO

  • It's a fixed amount for lenses, not the percentage of the sales price to us.

    這是鏡片的固定金額,而不是向我們收取的銷售價格的百分比。

  • Pria Costelada - Analyst

    Pria Costelada - Analyst

  • Okay, great, thanks.

    好的,太好了,謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • We must be getting down to the last one or two now Diana, are we not?

    黛安娜,我們現在肯定只剩下最後一兩個了,不是嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, we still have two questions to go.

    是的,我們還有兩個問題要回答。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay. Two it shall be.

    好的。應該是兩個。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Perfect. The next question comes from Mr. Steven Pelayo. Please state your company name followed by your question, sir.

    完美的。下一個問題來自史蒂文·佩拉約先生。先生,請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • Great, good morning, it's Morgan Stanley. I wonder if we can explore for a moment - I'm looking at your backlog here - I want to hear your comments on your turns capabilities. You talked a little bit about cycle times, you talked a little about finished goods. But if I remember correct in the past, I think two of your top customers, I think leading [indiscernible] leading [indiscernible] maker, you also work against comfortable building against letter of intent. And that gives you an increased ability to actually do book and ships within a quarter. Can you talk about a little bit about your turns capability and how that might be able to help you, despite the fact of having relatively low backlogs generally.

    太好了,早安,我是摩根士丹利。我想知道我們是否可以探討一下 - 我正在查看您的積壓工作 - 我想聽聽您對轉彎能力的評論。您談了一點關於週期時間的問題,也談了一點關於成品的問題。但如果我沒記錯的話,過去,我認為你們的兩個最大客戶,我認為領先的[音頻不清晰]領先的[音頻不清晰]製造商,你們也反對舒適的建設意向書。這使您能夠在一個季度內實際完成預訂和發貨。您能否談談您的周轉能力以及它如何幫助您,儘管總體而言積壓量相對較低。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Right, Steve, you're out of time. Yes, I will try and address those points. First of all the out of line. We do -- there are one or two customers who are so disciplined and well in control that [indiscernible] for them is a solid gold ticket, and we call that an order. And you see that in our backlog. You see that in there already, it's in there. Okay, that 62 contains those. That's the first thing, Steve. So that doesn't change out turns capability. So coming at your question, can we turn orders in a quarter and a half year, absolutely, we will. We will definitely turn orders this half year, we will do it because some -- as you know we have some inventory, that will help. The older refurbished type of product we have a lot of modules and piece parts, we can turn those fairly quickly, it's a short cycle time to build that product internally. And therefore we can and will make turns of a serious nature in any period of time.

    好的,史蒂夫,你的時間已經到了。是的,我會盡力解決這些問題。首先,這是不合常規的。我們確實有——有一兩個客戶非常自律,控制力很強,對他們來說[音頻不清晰]就是一張純金票,我們稱之為訂單。您可以在我們的積壓工作中看到這一點。您已經看到它在那裡了,它就在那裡。好的,62 包含了這些。這是第一件事,史蒂夫。所以這不會改變我們的轉彎能力。那麼回到你的問題,我們能在一季半內完成訂單嗎?答案是肯定的。我們肯定會在這半年內完成訂單,我們會這樣做,因為有些——正如你所知,我們有一些庫存,這會有所幫助。對於舊款翻新產品,我們擁有許多模組和零件,我們可以相當快速地轉換它們,內部製造該產品的周期很短。因此,我們能夠並且將會在任何時期做出嚴肅的轉變。

  • Of course the nearer you get to the week we're in the more difficult it is, but we have some finished goods, quite a bit of modules, so for older products, no problem. Whatever the customers want we can probably turn them in certainly with expectation of this year and first part of next year. For some of the leading edge new products, that's when we have a problem, Steve, and what we do then - and I mentioned this earlier - we will place speculative orders of a few off. I mean a handful off of the longer lead items so that we are able to get those in and turn them in a reasonable timeframe.

    當然,越接近我們所處的周,困難就越大,但我們有一些成品,相當多的模組,所以對於較舊的產品來說,沒有問題。無論客戶想要什麼,我們大概都能在今年和明年上半年滿足他們的要求。對於一些前沿的新產品,當我們遇到問題時,史蒂夫,我們會做什麼 - 我之前提到過 - 我們會下達一些投機訂單。我的意思是,我們只需要處理少量週期較長的物品,這樣我們就能在合理的時間內收到並交付它們。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • So is it safe to say that, I guess the top date for the year is somewhere -- I guess you're talking about 12 weeks lead times for 300 mm type tools, or somewhere 12 weeks before the end of the year?

    那麼可以肯定地說,我猜今年的最佳日期是在某個地方 - 我猜您說的是 300 毫米類型工具的 12 週交貨時間,或者是年底前 12 週的某個時間?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Yes. Some I mean is [indiscernible] machine because for some it's 12 weeks, for some it's as little as 6 weeks, and for some it's 9 months, so yes it's a good rule of thumb, we're now in a position where we can turn any serious amount of business inside three months.

    是的。有些我的意思是 [音頻不清晰] 機器,因為對於某些人來說是 12 週,對於某些人來說只有 6 週,而對於某些人來說是 9 個月,所以是的,這是一個很好的經驗法則,我們現在可以在三個月內完成任何大量業務。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks, Doug.

    好的,太好了。謝謝,道格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The final question comes from Miss Cristina Osmena. Please state your company name followed by your question.

    最後一個問題來自克里斯蒂娜·奧斯梅納女士。請說明您的公司名稱,然後提出您的問題。

  • Cristina Osmena - Analyst

    Cristina Osmena - Analyst

  • Needham and Company. I just wanted to get a sense of the magnitude and breadth of the pricing pressure that you're seeing. How long should we expect the price concessions that you've been giving to affect the ASPs we're seeing? And at what point can we see those pressures reverse? What needs to happen?

    李約瑟公司。我只是想了解您所看到的價格壓力的規模和廣度。我們預期你們提供的價格優惠會對我們看到的平均售價產生多久的影響?什麼時候我們才能看到這些壓力逆轉?需要發生什麼?

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay, Christina. First of all let me stress one thing on the prices. We still sell our product at a premium. Please [indiscernible] we're not competing with any two products at the same price. We're competing with premium products for premium price. But it does mean, however, if the competitive product, usually the lesser specifications, is sold at a very low price, then the expectation of our customer is that we will come part way to meet that. So we come down from the price we'd like to have. But we're not competing on price alone, almost never in our history do we do that.

    好的,克里斯蒂娜。首先,我要強調一下價格問題。我們仍然以高價出售我們的產品。請[音訊不清楚]我們不與任何兩種同價位的產品競爭。我們正在以優質產品和優質價格進行競爭。但這確實意味著,如果有競爭力的產品(通常規格較低)以非常低的價格出售,那麼客戶的期望就是我們會盡力滿足這項要求。因此,我們降低了我們想要的價格。但我們不僅僅在價格上競爭,在我們的歷史上我們幾乎從來沒有這樣做過。

  • The price pressure will be on I think while ever there's customers who can be slow in placing orders, and take a long time to negotiate and renegotiate and negotiate again on prices and terms and conditions. And while ever the competition that we face us as under utilized if not more so as we are. There's a natural instinct from our side, and from theirs as well, for some of the companies in the world to be sharp on pricing. When will it recover? Well it will recover when we all get back to kind of a stability of the market where the customers are more urgent for products, and therefore are slightly more desperate to place the orders. And where we and our competitors have fuller factories and less ability to respond to pricing pressure from customers.

    我認為,只要有客戶下訂單很慢,並且需要很長時間就價格和條款和條件進行談判、重新談判和再次談判,價格壓力就會一直存在。儘管我們面臨的競爭比我們面臨的競爭更激烈,但我們的利用率卻低於平均水準。就我們和他們的本能而言,世界上有些公司對定價非常敏感。啥時候能恢復啊?當我們都回到市場穩定狀態時,它就會恢復,那時客戶​​對產品更加迫切,因此也更急於下訂單。我們和我們的競爭對手的工廠都比較滿,應對客戶價格壓力的能力較弱。

  • But we're not banking on that happening, because I don't know when it's going to happen. We're banking on the things that we can control, so we're taking out costs down. So we will improve our gross margins, not by increasing the price - well I hope we can, but maybe not, we're not banking on that - but by reducing our costs. By reducing our cost of goods and our other costs and that's what we're focusing on. That we do control.

    但我們並不指望這種情況會發生,因為我不知道它什麼時候會發生。我們依靠我們能夠控制的事情,所以我們正在降低成本。因此,我們將提高毛利率,不是透過提高價格——我希望可以,但也許不行,我們也不指望這一點——而是透過降低成本。透過降低我們的商品成本和其他成本,這就是我們關注的重點。我們確實可以控制。

  • Cristina Osmena - Analyst

    Cristina Osmena - Analyst

  • Wonderful, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Christina. Diana, I think we're all finished?

    謝謝你,克里斯蒂娜。黛安娜,我想我們都結束了吧?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We're all finished, there are no further questions, sir.

    我們都說完了,先生,沒有其他問題了。

  • Doug Dunn - President & CEO

    Doug Dunn - President & CEO

  • Okay, well let me thank the remaining audience, any who are left. Thank you very much for your time, your patience and your questions. I hope we gave you answers you can live with. And we look forward to seeing you again soon and talking to you in a quarter's time.

    好的,那麼讓我感謝剩下的觀眾。非常感謝您抽出時間、耐心並提出問題。我希望我們能提供你一個可以接受的答案。我們期待很快再次見到您,並在一刻鐘後與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the ASML half year and second quarter results 2003 conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    女士們,先生們。ASML 2003 年上半年及第二季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。