富國銀行 (WFC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您加入富國銀行 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。主席先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss first quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf；我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第一季度業績並回答您的問題。此通話正在錄音中。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our first quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第一季度收益材料，包括發布、財務補充和演示文稿，都可以在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上找到。

I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

我還想提醒您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議上做出受風險和不確定因素影響的前瞻性陳述。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素，包括今天提交的包含我們收益材料的 8-K 表格。有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的協調，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John. I'll make some brief comments about our first quarter results and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review first quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.

謝謝，約翰。我將對我們第一季度的業績做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後我將電話轉給邁克，在我們回答您的問題之前更詳細地審查第一季度的結果。

Let me start with some first quarter highlights. Our results in the quarter were strong and reflected the continued progress we're making to improve returns. We grew revenue from both the fourth quarter and a year ago. We continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives and expenses declined from both the fourth quarter and the year ago, driven by lower operating losses, but we continue to be focused on controlling other expenses as well.

讓我從第一季度的一些亮點開始。我們在本季度的業績強勁，反映了我們在提高回報方面取得的持續進展。與去年第四季度和一年前相比，我們的收入有所增長。由於運營虧損減少，我們在提高效率方面繼續取得進展，費用比第四季度和去年同期有所下降，但我們也繼續專注於控制其他費用。

The consumer and majority of our businesses remain strong. Delinquencies and net charge-offs have continued to slowly increase as expected. We're looking for signs of accelerated deterioration in asset classes or segments of our customers. And broadly speaking, we saw a little change in the trends from the prior quarter.

消費者和我們的大部分業務依然強勁。正如預期的那樣，拖欠和淨註銷繼續緩慢增加。我們正在尋找資產類別或客戶細分市場加速惡化的跡象。從廣義上講，我們看到上一季度的趨勢略有變化。

However, weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office, and Mike will discuss this in more detail. Given what we're seeing, we're taking incremental actions to tighten credit on higher risk segments, but continue to lend broadly. We increased our allowance for credit losses for the fourth consecutive quarter. Our economic expectations used to support the allowance have not changed meaningfully, but we do continue to look at specific asset classes, such as commercial real estate to appropriately assess the adequacy of the allowance. We will continue to monitor the trends in each of our loan portfolios to determine the future action is warranted.

然而，商業地產寫字樓的疲軟仍在繼續發展，邁克將對此進行更詳細的討論。鑑於我們所看到的情況，我們正在採取漸進行動來收緊對高風險領域的信貸，但繼續廣泛放貸。我們連續第四個季度增加了信貸損失準備金。我們用於支持津貼的經濟預期沒有發生有意義的變化，但我們確實會繼續關注特定的資產類別，例如商業房地產，以適當評估津貼的充足性。我們將繼續監控每項貸款組合的趨勢，以確定未來的行動是否必要。

Both commercial and consumer average loans were up from a year ago, but were relatively stable from the fourth quarter. Consumer spending remained strong with growth in both debit and credit card spend, but spending began to soften late in the quarter. The decline in average deposits that started a year ago continued in the first quarter, primarily driven by customers seeking higher-yielding alternatives and continued growth in consumer spending. We did see some moderate inflows from the few specific banks that have been highlighted in the press, but those inflows have abated. Our CET1 ratio, which was already strong, increased to 10.8% even as we resumed common stock repurchases in the first quarter buying back $4 billion in common stock.

商業和消費者平均貸款均較上年同期有所上升，但與第四季度相比相對穩定。隨著借記卡和信用卡支出的增長，消費者支出依然強勁，但支出在本季度末開始放緩。平均存款從一年前開始的下降在第一季度繼續，這主要是由於客戶尋求更高收益的替代品和消費者支出的持續增長。我們確實看到媒體強調的少數特定銀行有一些適度的資金流入，但這些資金流入已經減少。即使我們在第一季度恢復了普通股回購，回購了 40 億美元的普通股，我們的 CET1 比率已經很高，但仍增加到 10.8%。

Let me share some thoughts on the recent market events impacting the banking industry. We're glad that the work we have completed over the last several years has put us in a position to help support the U.S. financial system. Along with 10 other large banks, we utilized our strength and liquidity, and we made a $5 billion uninsured deposit into First Republic Bank, reflecting our confidence in the country's banking system and to help provide First Republic with liquidity to continue serving its customers.

讓我就最近影響銀行業的市場事件分享一些想法。我們很高興我們在過去幾年中完成的工作使我們能夠幫助支持美國金融體系。我們與其他 10 家大型銀行一起，利用我們的實力和流動性，向 First Republic Bank 存入了 50 億美元的無保險存款，這反映了我們對國家銀行體系的信心，並幫助 First Republic 提供流動性以繼續為客戶服務。

I'm proud of everything our employees have done during this historic period to be there for our customers. We believe banks of all sizes are an important part of our financial system as each is uniquely positioned to serve their customers and communities. It's important to recognize that banks have different operating models and that the banks that failed in the first quarter were quite different from what people think of when they think about the typical regional bank. These particular banks had concentrated business models with heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.

我為我們的員工在這個歷史時期為我們的客戶所做的一切感到自豪。我們相信各種規模的銀行都是我們金融系統的重要組成部分，因為每家銀行都具有獨特的優勢來服務其客戶和社區。重要的是要認識到銀行有不同的運營模式，而且第一季度倒閉的銀行與人們對典型地區性銀行的看法大不相同。這些特定的銀行採用集中的商業模式，嚴重依賴未投保的存款。

Our franchise and those of many other banks operate with a broader business model and more diversified funding sources. It is times like these that the many benefits of our own franchise become even more clear. Our diversified business model provides opportunities to serve our customers broadly, which reduces concentration risk across the different elements of risk.

我們的特許經營權和許多其他銀行的特許經營權以更廣泛的商業模式和更多元化的資金來源運作。正是在這樣的時候，我們自己的特許經營權的許多好處變得更加明顯。我們多元化的業務模式提供了廣泛服務客戶的機會，從而降低了不同風險要素的集中風險。

Most importantly, our customers benefit from our size and the range of banking services we provide, which helps us build a full relationship with individuals and companies. We also have strong capital and liquidity positions, which include a mix of deposits and access to multiple funding sources and our continued focus on financial and credit risk management allows us to support our customers throughout economic cycles.

最重要的是，我們的客戶受益於我們的規模和我們提供的銀行服務範圍，這有助於我們與個人和公司建立全面的關係。我們還擁有強大的資本和流動性頭寸，包括存款和多種資金來源的組合，以及我們對金融和信用風險管理的持續關注，使我們能夠在整個經濟周期中為客戶提供支持。

Now let me update you on the progress we've made on our strategic priorities. Our top priority remains building out our risk and control framework appropriate for our company. I spent time in my recent annual letter, highlighting why we remain confident in our ability to complete this work, including having much more effective reporting and processes in place to provide appropriate oversight, adding close to 10,000 people across numerous risk and control-related groups as part of our commitment to make the investments needed to complete door and building the management discipline and culture to govern and execute the work, which includes the operating committee reviewing risk and regulatory progress and escalations on a weekly basis.

現在讓我向您介紹我們在戰略重點方面取得的最新進展。我們的首要任務仍然是建立適合我們公司的風險和控制框架。我在最近的年度信函中花時間強調了為什麼我們對完成這項工作的能力充滿信心，包括制定更有效的報告和流程以提供適當的監督，在眾多風險和控制相關小組中增加近 10,000 人作為我們承諾進行投資以完成門和建立管理紀律和文化以管理和執行工作所需的投資的一部分，其中包括運營委員會每週審查風險和監管進展和升級。

I also summarize the actions we've taken to simplify the way we operate. This work continued in the first quarter as we largely completed the exit of the correspondent home lending business as part of our plans to simplify that business. We're also narrowing our retail mortgage business to focus on predominantly bank customers and underserved communities.

我還總結了我們為簡化運營方式而採取的行動。這項工作在第一季度繼續進行，因為我們在很大程度上完成了代理房屋貸款業務的退出，這是我們簡化該業務計劃的一部分。我們還縮小了零售抵押貸款業務的範圍，以專注於主要銀行客戶和服務欠缺的社區。

Our strategy includes broadening our existing investment from the special purpose credit program to include purchase loans, investing an additional $100 million to advance racial equity in homeownership and deploying additional home mortgage consultants in local minority communities. We continue to transform the way we serve our customers by offering innovative products and solutions.

我們的戰略包括將我們現有的投資從特殊用途信貸計劃擴大到包括購買貸款、額外投資 1 億美元以促進房屋所有權方面的種族平等以及在當地少數族裔社區部署額外的房屋抵押貸款顧問。我們通過提供創新的產品和解決方案，不斷改變我們為客戶服務的方式。

We announced a multiyear agreement with Choice Hotels to launch a new co-branded credit card this month, creating a best-in-class credit card program designed to enhance our customers' experience and bring them more value. We rolled out early payday late last year, which makes eligible direct deposits available up to 2 days early.

我們宣布與 Choice Hotels 達成一項多年協議，將於本月推出一款新的聯名信用卡，打造一流的信用卡計劃，旨在提升客戶體驗並為他們帶來更多價值。我們在去年年底推出了提前發薪日，這使得符合條件的直接存款最多可提前 2 天使用。

In the first quarter, this enhancement provided customers early access to over $200 billion in direct deposits. We launched Flex Loan in the fourth quarter, a digital-only small dollar loan that provides eligible customers, convenient and affordable access to funds. Customer response continues to exceed our expectations, we've originated over 100,000 loans since November.

在第一季度，這一改進使客戶能夠提前獲得超過 2000 億美元的直接存款。我們在第四季度推出了 Flex Loan，這是一種僅限數字的小額美元貸款，可為符合條件的客戶提供方便且負擔得起的資金獲取渠道。客戶的反應繼續超出我們的預期，自 11 月以來，我們已經發放了超過 100,000 筆貸款。

Digital adoption and usage among our consumer customers continued to increase. We added over 500,000 mobile active customers in the first quarter and digital logins increased 6% from a year ago. Since rolling out Vantage, our new enhanced digital experience for our commercial and corporate clients late last year, we've received overwhelmingly positive feedback on the new user experience. Vantage uses AI and machine learning to provide a tailored and intuitive platform based on our clients' specific needs.

我們的消費者客戶對數字技術的採用和使用持續增加。我們在第一季度增加了超過 500,000 名移動活躍客戶，數字登錄比一年前增長了 6%。自去年年底推出我們為商業和企業客戶提供的全新增強數字體驗 Vantage 以來，我們收到了對新用戶體驗的壓倒性積極反饋。 Vantage 使用人工智能和機器學習，根據客戶的特定需求提供量身定制的直觀平台。

We also continued to make progress on our environmental, social and governance work. We announced a $50 million grant to the NAACP to support efforts to advance racial equity in America. This is the single largest donation at the NAACP has ever received from the corporation and builds on our long-standing relationship with the NAACP that spans more than 20 years. The Wells Fargo Foundation expanded its commitment to housing affordability through another $20 million housing affordability breakthrough challenge to advance ideas to help meet the need for more affordable homes across the country. We also announced a $20 million commitment to advance economic opportunities in Native American communities including addressing housing, small business, financial health and sustainability.

我們還在環境、社會和治理工作方面繼續取得進展。我們宣布向全國有色人種協進會提供 5000 萬美元的贈款，以支持促進美國種族平等的努力。這是全國有色人種協進會有史以來從公司收到的最大一筆捐款，它建立在我們與全國有色人種協進會長達 20 多年的長期合作關係之上。富國銀行基金會通過另一個 2000 萬美元的住房負擔能力突破挑戰擴大了其對住房負擔能力的承諾，以推進想法，幫助滿足全國對更多負擔得起的住房的需求。我們還宣布了一項 2000 萬美元的承諾，用於增加美國原住民社區的經濟機會，包括解決住房、小型企業、財務健康和可持續性問題。

Before concluding, I wanted to highlight the management changes we announced yesterday. Mary Mack, the CEO of consumer and small business banking is retiring this summer. She spent her entire career at Wells Fargo and has led consumer and small business banking for the past 7 years through a significant amount of change, including defining a new path forward to the business. I can think of few Wells Fargo colleagues, who have done as much for our company and have been as visible in the communities that we serve over such a long period of time.

在結束之前，我想強調一下我們昨天宣布的管理層變動。消費者和小型企業銀行業務首席執行官瑪麗麥克將於今年夏天退休。她的整個職業生涯都在 Wells Fargo 度過，在過去 7 年中領導消費者和小型企業銀行業務進行了大量變革，包括為業務發展制定新的路徑。我能想到很少有 Wells Fargo 的同事，他們為我們公司做出瞭如此多的貢獻，並且在我們服務了這麼長時間的社區中表現出色。

We also announced that Saul Van Beurden, Head of Technology at Wells Fargo will succeed Mary. Sal is a strong leader, a technologist and he knows how to run a business. This makes him the ideal person to lead consumer and small business banking into the future. Our branch network will continue to be the key to the business. But our customers expect us to provide them with increasingly digitized and seamless banking experiences across all channels. Saul understands this deeply and has consistently proven his ability to convert new products and services across Wells Fargo.

我們還宣布，Wells Fargo 技術主管 Saul Van Beurden 將接替 Mary。 Sal 是一位強有力的領導者，一名技術專家，他知道如何經營一家企業。這使他成為引領消費者和小型企業銀行業務走向未來的理想人選。我們的分行網絡將繼續成為業務的關鍵。但我們的客戶希望我們為他們提供跨所有渠道的日益數字化和無縫的銀行體驗。 Saul 對此深有體會，並不斷證明自己有能力在 Wells Fargo 轉換新產品和服務。

Finally, Tracy Kerrins, currently Head of Consumer Technology will become head of technology for the company reporting to me. Tracy has worked with the technology and finance industry for more than 20 years and has led a series of business critical initiatives to modernize our technology platforms across our consumer businesses. She is a strong results-driven leader.

最後，現任消費者技術主管的 Tracy Kerrins 將成為向我匯報的公司的技術主管。 Tracy 在技術和金融行業工作了 20 多年，領導了一系列業務關鍵計劃，以實現我們在消費者業務中的技術平台現代化。她是一個以結果為導向的強大領導者。

It's always great when we can tap our own leaders for roles within the company, and I want to thank Mary for everything she's done during her tenure at Wells Fargo. It's truly been a pleasure working with her.

當我們能夠在公司內部任命我們自己的領導者時，這總是很棒的，我要感謝 Mary 在 Wells Fargo 任職期間所做的一切。和她一起工作真的很愉快。

As we look forward, we're carefully watching customer behavior for clues on how the economic environment is changing. Customer activity is still relatively strong and delinquencies remain low, though they are increasing. There are pockets of risks such as commercial office real estate, which will likely impact institutions differently, and we're proactively managing our own exposures.

展望未來，我們正在仔細觀察客戶行為，以尋找有關經濟環境如何變化的線索。客戶活動仍然相對強勁，拖欠率仍然很低，儘管它們在增加。存在一些風險，例如商業辦公房地產，這可能會對機構產生不同的影響，我們正在積極管理自己的風險敞口。

We continue to expect economic growth to slow, and we are preparing for a range of scenarios. We will continue to monitor both the markets and our customers and will react accordingly. Our diversified business model should enable us to support our customers throughout economic cycles.

我們繼續預計經濟增長將放緩，我們正在為一系列情況做準備。我們將繼續監控市場和我們的客戶，並做出相應的反應。我們多元化的商業模式應該使我們能夠在整個經濟周期中為我們的客戶提供支持。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the first quarter was $5 billion or $1.23 per diluted common share. While there was a lot going on in the banking industry around us, we continue to focus on our priorities and our results reflected the progress we are making, which I'll highlight throughout the call.

謝謝查理，大家早上好。第一季度的淨收入為 50 億美元或每股攤薄普通股 1.23 美元。雖然我們周圍的銀行業發生了很多事情，但我們繼續關注我們的優先事項，我們的結果反映了我們正在取得的進展，我將在整個電話會議中強調這一點。

Starting with capital and liquidity on Slide 3. Our CET1 ratio was 10.8%, up approximately 20 basis points from the fourth quarter, reflecting our earnings in the quarter and lower risk-weighted assets. After pausing share repurchases for the prior 3 quarters, we repurchased $4 billion of common stock in the first quarter. Our CET1 ratio remained well above our required regulatory minimum plus buffers, and we expect to continue to prudently return excess capital to shareholders in the coming quarters.

從幻燈片 3 的資本和流動性開始。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.8%，比第四季度上升約 20 個基點，反映了我們本季度的收益和較低的風險加權資產。在前三個季度暫停股票回購後，我們在第一季度回購了 40 億美元的普通股。我們的 CET1 比率仍遠高於我們要求的監管最低加緩衝，我們預計將在未來幾個季度繼續審慎地將過剩資本返還給股東。

In the first quarter, our liquidity coverage ratio was approximately 22 percentage points above the regulatory minimum. We continue to benefit from a diversified deposit base with over 60% of our deposits in our Consumer Banking and Lending segment as of the first quarter, which is a higher percentage than before the pandemic.

一季度，我們的流動性覆蓋率比監管下限高出約22個百分點。我們繼續受益於多元化的存款基礎，截至第一季度，我們超過 60% 的存款都在我們的消費者銀行和貸款部門，這一比例高於大流行之前。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 5. Net loan charge-offs continue to slowly increase to 26 basis points in the first quarter, but were still below pre-pandemic levels. Commercial net loan charge-offs decreased $16 million from the fourth quarter to 5 basis points. However, while losses improved, we continue to see some gradual weakening in underlying credit performance, including higher nonperforming assets.

關於幻燈片 5 的信貸質量。第一季度淨貸款註銷繼續緩慢增加至 26 個基點，但仍低於大流行前的水平。商業淨貸款沖銷從第四季度減少 1600 萬美元至 5 個基點。然而，雖然損失有所改善，但我們繼續看到基礎信貸表現逐漸減弱，包括不良資產增加。

We are proactively monitoring our clients' sensitivity to inflation and higher rates and are taking appropriate actions when warranted. We are also closely monitoring our commercial real estate office portfolio, and I'll share some more details on our exposure on the next slide. As expected, we've seen consumer delinquencies and losses gradually increase.

我們正在主動監控客戶對通貨膨脹和更高利率的敏感性，並在必要時採取適當的行動。我們也在密切關注我們的商業地產寫字樓投資組合，我將在下一張幻燈片中分享更多關於我們風險敞口的細節。正如預期的那樣，我們已經看到消費者拖欠和損失逐漸增加。

Total consumer net loan charge-offs increased $60 million from the fourth quarter to 56 basis points of average loans, driven by an increase in the credit card portfolio. While most consumers remain resilient, we've seen some consumer financial health trends gradually weakening from a year ago, and we've continued to take credit taking actions to position the portfolio for a slowing economy.

在信用卡組合增加的推動下，消費者淨貸款註銷總額比第四季度增加了 6000 萬美元，達到平均貸款的 56 個基點。雖然大多數消費者保持彈性，但我們已經看到一些消費者財務健康趨勢從一年前開始逐漸減弱，我們繼續採取信貸行動，為投資組合定位經濟放緩。

Nonperforming assets increased 7% from the fourth quarter, driven by higher commercial real estate nonaccrual loans that were down 12% from a year ago due to lower residential mortgage nonaccrual loans. Of note, 87% of the nonaccrual loans in our commercial real estate portfolio were current on interest and 75% recurring on both principal and interest as of the end of the first quarter. Our allowance for credit losses increased to $643 million in the first quarter, reflecting an increase for commercial real estate loans, primarily office loans as well as an increase for credit card and auto loans.

由於住宅抵押貸款非應計貸款減少，商業房地產非應計貸款較上年同期下降 12%，不良資產較第四季度增加 7%。值得注意的是，截至第一季度末，我們商業房地產投資組合中 87% 的非應計貸款是按本息計息的，75% 是本金和利息的經常性貸款。我們的信貸損失準備金在第一季度增加到 6.43 億美元，反映出商業房地產貸款（主要是辦公室貸款）的增加以及信用卡和汽車貸款的增加。

Given the increased focus on commercial real estate loans, especially office, we provided more details on our portfolio on Slide 6. We have $154.7 billion of commercial real estate loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter with $35.7 billion of office loans, which represented 4% of our total loans outstanding. The office market continues to show signs of weakness due to lower demand, higher financing costs and challenging capital market conditions. While we haven't seen this translate to meaningful loss content yet, we expect to see more stress over time.

鑑於人們越來越關注商業房地產貸款，尤其是寫字樓貸款，我們在幻燈片 6 上提供了有關我們投資組合的更多詳細信息。截至第一季度末，我們有 1547 億美元的未償還商業房地產貸款，其中辦公室貸款為 357 億美元，佔占我們未償還貸款總額的 4%。由於需求下降、融資成本上升和資本市場條件充滿挑戰，寫字樓市場繼續呈現疲軟跡象。雖然我們還沒有看到這轉化為有意義的損失內容，但我們預計隨著時間的推移會看到更多的壓力。

As you would expect, we have been derisking the office portfolio, which resulted in commitments declining 5% from a year ago, and we continue to proactively work with borrowers to manage our exposure, including structural enhancements and paydowns as warranted.

正如您所預料的那樣，我們一直在降低寫字樓投資組合的風險，這導致承諾比一年前下降 5%，並且我們繼續積極與借款人合作以管理我們的風險敞口，包括必要的結構改進和償還。

As you can see in the slide, we've provided some additional data on the office portfolio, including approximately 12% is owner occupied. Therefore, the loan performance is mostly tied to the cash flow of the owner's operating business rather than rents paid by tenants. Nearly 1/3 had recourse to a guarantor typically through a repayment guarantee. The portfolio is geographically diverse, and as you'd expect, the largest concentrations are in California and New York.

正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們提供了一些關於辦公室組合的額外數據，其中大約 12% 是業主自用的。因此，貸款表現主要與業主經營業務的現金流量而非租戶支付的租金掛鉤。將近 1/3 的人通常通過還款擔保向擔保人求助。投資組合在地理上是多樣化的，正如您所料，最大的集中地在加利福尼亞和紐約。

Over 2/3 of our office loans are in the Corporate and Investment Banking business, and the vast majority of this portfolio is institutional quality real estate with high-caliber sponsors. While approximately 80% of it is Class A, keep in mind that this is a single measure that is hard to evaluate in isolation. For example, newer or refurbished properties may perform better regardless of whether they are Class A or B.

我們超過 2/3 的寫字樓貸款來自企業和投資銀行業務，其中絕大部分是擁有優質贊助商的機構級優質房地產。雖然其中大約 80% 是 A 類，但請記住，這是一個很難單獨評估的單一指標。例如，無論是 A 級還是 B 級，較新或翻新的物業都可能表現更好。

We are providing this data to give you more insight into the portfolio, but as is usually the case in commercial real estate, each property situation is different and a myriad of other variables, such as leasing rates, loan-to-value and debt yields can determine performance, which is why we regularly review the portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis.

我們提供這些數據是為了讓您更深入地了解投資組合，但與商業房地產的通常情況一樣，每處房產的情況都不同，還有無數其他變量，例如租賃率、貸款價值比和債務收益率可以決定績效，這就是為什麼我們會定期逐筆審查投資組合。

As a result of market conditions and the recent increases in criticized assets and nonaccrual loans, we've increased our allowance for credit losses for office loans for the past 4 quarters. The allowance for credit losses coverage ratio at the end of the first quarter for the office portfolio in the Corporate Investment Bank was 5.7%. We will continue to closely monitor this portfolio, but as has been the case in prior cycles, this will likely play out over an extended period of time as we actively work with borrowers to help it solve issues they may be facing.

由於市場狀況以及最近受批評的資產和非應計貸款的增加，我們在過去 4 個季度增加了辦公室貸款的信用損失準備金。企業投資銀行寫字樓組合一季度末信用損失準備覆蓋率為5.7%。我們將繼續密切關注這一投資組合，但與之前週期的情況一樣，隨著我們積極與借款人合作，幫助解決他們可能面臨的問題，這可能會在較長一段時間內發揮作用。

On Slide 7, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 6% from a year ago and were relatively stable from the fourth quarter, while period-end loans declined 1% from the fourth quarter with lower balances across our consumer and commercial portfolios.

在幻燈片 7 中，我們突出顯示了貸款和存款。平均貸款較上年同期增長 6%，與第四季度相比相對穩定，而期末貸款較第四季度下降 1%，原因是我們的消費者和商業投資組合的餘額較低。

I'll highlight specific drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 244 basis points from a year ago and 56 basis points from the fourth quarter, reflecting the higher interest rate environment. Average deposits declined 7% from a year ago and 2% for the fourth quarter due to the consumer deposit outflows as customers continue to reallocate cash into higher-yielding alternatives and continued spending.

在討論我們的運營部門業績時，我將強調具體的驅動因素。平均貸款收益率較上年同期上升 244 個基點，較第四季度上升 56 個基點，反映出較高的利率環境。平均存款同比下降 7%，第四季度下降 2%，原因是客戶繼續將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品並繼續支出，導致消費者存款外流。

During the market stress last month, we experienced a brief increase in deposit inflows that has since abated and while our period-end deposit balances were slightly higher than we expected at the beginning of the quarter, they're still down 2% from the fourth quarter. As expected, our average deposit cost increased 37 basis points from the fourth quarter to 83 basis points with higher deposit costs across all operating segments in response to rising interest rates. Our mix of noninterest-bearing deposits declined from 35% in the fourth quarter to 32% in the first quarter, but remained above pre-pandemic levels.

在上個月的市場壓力下，我們經歷了存款流入的短暫增加，此後有所減弱，雖然我們的期末存款餘額略高於我們在本季度初的預期，但仍比第四季度下降了 2%四分之一。正如預期的那樣，我們的平均存款成本比第四季度增加了 37 個基點，達到 83 個基點，所有運營部門的存款成本都因利率上升而增加。我們的無息存款組合從第四季度的 35% 下降到第一季度的 32%，但仍高於大流行前的水平。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 8. First quarter net interest income was $13.3 billion, which was 45% higher than a year ago as we continue to benefit from the impact of higher rates. The $97 million decline for the fourth quarter was due to 2 fewer business days.

轉到幻燈片 8 的淨利息收入。第一季度淨利息收入為 133 億美元，比去年同期增長 45%，因為我們繼續受益於利率上升的影響。第四季度減少 9700 萬美元是由於減少了 2 個工作日。

Our full year net interest income guidance has not changed from last quarter as we still expect 2023 net interest income to grow by approximately 10% compared with 2022. And Ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earned this year will depend on a variety of factors, many of which are uncertain, including the absolute level of interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, deposit balances, mix and repricing and loan demand.

我們的全年淨利息收入指引與上一季度相比沒有變化，因為我們仍然預計 2023 年淨利息收入將比 2022 年增長約 10%。最終，我們今年賺取的淨利息收入將取決於各種因素因素，其中許多是不確定的，包括利率的絕對水平、收益率曲線的形狀、存款餘額、組合和重新定價以及貸款需求。

Turning to expenses on Slide 9. Noninterest expense declined 1% from a year ago, driven by lower operating losses and the impact of business initiatives. The increase in personnel expense from the fourth quarter was driven by approximately $650 million seasonally higher expenses in the first quarter, including payroll taxes, restricted stock expense for retirement eligible employees and 401(k) matching contributions.

轉到幻燈片 9 的費用。非利息費用比一年前下降了 1%，這是由於較低的運營損失和業務計劃的影響。第四季度人事費用的增加是由於第一季度約 6.5 億美元的季節性費用增加，包括工資稅、符合退休條件的員工的限制性股票費用和 401(k) 匹配供款。

Our full year 2023 noninterest expense, excluding operating losses, is still expected to be approximately $50.2 billion, unchanged from the guidance we provided last quarter. As a reminder, we have outstanding litigation, regulatory and customer remediation matters that could impact operating losses.

我們 2023 年全年的非利息支出（不包括運營虧損）預計仍約為 502 億美元，與我們上個季度提供的指導持平。提醒一下，我們有可能影響經營虧損的未決訴訟、監管和客戶補救事項。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 10. Consumer and small business banking revenue increased 28% from a year ago as higher net interest income driven by the impact of higher interest rates was partially offset by lower deposit-related fees driven by the overdraft policy changes we rolled out last year.

轉向我們的運營部門，從幻燈片 10 上的消費者銀行業務和貸款業務開始。消費者和小型企業銀行業務收入較上年同期增長 28%，原因是利率上升帶來的淨利息收入增加被較低的存款相關部分抵消我們去年推出的透支政策變化推動的費用。

We are continuing to make investments in this business. We're beginning to increase marketing spend. We're accelerating the efforts to renovate and refurbish our branches, for our bankers, we're investing in new tools and capabilities to provide better and more personalized advice to customers. We're continuing to enhance our mobile app and mobile active users were up 4% year-over-year and we're also seeing increased activity and positive initial indicators after our rollout of Wells Fargo Premier last year.

我們將繼續對該業務進行投資。我們開始增加營銷支出。我們正在加快努力翻新和翻新我們的分支機構，為了我們的銀行家，我們正在投資新的工具和功能，以便為客戶提供更好、更個性化的建議。我們正在繼續增強我們的移動應用程序，移動活躍用戶同比增長 4%，並且在我們去年推出 Wells Fargo Premier 之後，我們也看到了增加的活動和積極的初始指標。

It's early on for all of these initiatives, but we're starting to see some green shoots. At the same time, we continue to execute on our efficiency initiatives. Teller transactions continue to decline with reduced head count. We reduced headcount by 9% and total branches were down 4% from a year ago.

所有這些舉措都處於早期階段，但我們開始看到一些萌芽。與此同時，我們繼續執行我們的效率舉措。隨著人數的減少，櫃員交易繼續下降。我們裁員了 9%，分支機構總數比一年前減少了 4%。

In home lending, mortgage rates remained elevated and the mortgage market continued to decline. Our home lending revenue declined 42% from a year ago, driven by lower mortgage originations, including a significant decline from the correspondent channel and lower revenue from the resecuritization of loans purchased from securitization pools. We continue to reduce headcount in the first quarter, and we expect staffing levels will continue to decline due to the strategic changes we announced earlier this year. We stopped accepting applications from the correspondent channel as announced in January and begin to reduce the complexity and the size of the servicing book.

在房屋貸款方面，按揭利率仍然高企，而按揭市場繼續下滑。我們的房屋貸款收入比一年前下降了 42%，這是受抵押貸款發放減少的推動，包括來自代理渠道的顯著下降以及從證券化池購買的貸款的再證券化收入減少。我們在第一季度繼續裁員，並且由於我們今年早些時候宣布的戰略變化，我們預計人員配置水平將繼續下降。正如 1 月份宣布的那樣，我們停止接受來自通訊渠道的申請，並開始降低服務簿的複雜性和大小。

During the first quarter, we successfully marketed mortgage servicing rights for approximately $50 billion of loans serviced for others that we expect to close later this year. We will continue to look for additional opportunities to simplify and reduce the size of our servicing business. Credit card revenue increased 3% from a year ago due to higher loan balances driven by higher point-of-sale volume.

在第一季度，我們成功地推銷了大約 500 億美元的抵押貸款服務權，為我們預計將在今年晚些時候關閉的其他人提供服務。我們將繼續尋找更多機會來簡化和縮減我們的服務業務規模。信用卡收入較上年同期增長 3%，原因是銷售點銷量增加導致貸款餘額增加。

Auto revenue declined 12% from a year ago, driven by lower loan balances and continued loan spread compression from credit tightening actions and continued price competition due to rising interest rates. Personal lending revenue was up 9% from a year ago due to higher loan balances.

汽車收入較上年同期下降 12%，原因是貸款餘額下降、信貸緊縮行動導致貸款利差持續壓縮，以及利率上升導致價格競爭持續。由於貸款餘額增加，個人貸款收入較上年同期增長 9%。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 11. Mortgage originations declined 83% from a year ago and 55% from the fourth quarter with declines in both correspondent and retail originations. As I mentioned, we stopped accepting correspondent applications in January. So going forward, our originations will be focused on serving Wells Fargo customers and underserved communities.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。抵押貸款發放比一年前下降 83%，比第四季度下降 55%，代理和零售發放均下降。正如我提到的，我們在 1 月份停止接受通訊申請。因此，展望未來，我們的起源將專注於為 Wells Fargo 客戶和服務欠缺的社區提供服務。

The size of our auto portfolio has declined for 4 consecutive quarters and the balances were down 80% at the end of the first quarter compared to a year ago. Origination volume declined 32% from a year ago, reflecting credit tightening actions and continued price competition. Debit card spending increased 2% in the first quarter, compared to a year ago, an increase from the 1% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter. Discretionary spending drove the growth with nondiscretionary spending stable from the fourth quarter levels.

我們的汽車投資組合規模已連續 4 個季度下降，第一季度末的餘額與去年同期相比下降了 80%。發起量比一年前下降了 32%，反映出信貸緊縮行動和持續的價格競爭。與去年同期相比，第一季度借記卡支出增長了 2%，高於第四季度 1% 的同比增幅。可自由支配的支出推動了增長，非自由支配的支出從第四季度的水平穩定下來。

Credit card spending increased 16% from a year ago, in line with the year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter with sustained growth in both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending. Spending growth slowed throughout the quarter, but was still at double-digit levels in March. We continue to see some slight moderation in payment rates in the first quarter, but they were still well above pre-pandemic levels.

信用卡支出較上年同期增長 16%，與第四季度的同比增長一致，可自由支配和非自由支配支出均持續增長。整個季度的支出增長放緩，但 3 月份仍處於兩位數水平。我們繼續看到第一季度的支付率略有放緩，但仍遠高於大流行前的水平。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 12. Middle Market Banking revenue grew by 73% from a year ago due to the impact of higher interest rates and higher loan balances while deposit-related fees were lower, reflecting higher earnings credit rate on noninterest-bearing deposits. Asset-Based Lending and Leasing revenue increased 7% year-over-year, driven by loan growth which was partially offset by lower net gains from equity securities.

轉到幻燈片 12 上的商業銀行業務結果。由於較高的利率和較高的貸款餘額的影響，中間市場銀行業務收入比一年前增長了 73%，而與存款相關的費用較低，反映了無息收益信貸利率較高存款。基於資產的貸款和租賃收入同比增長 7%，這主要受貸款增長的推動，但部分被股票證券淨收益的減少所抵消。

Average loan balances were up 15% in the first quarter compared to a year ago, driven by new customer growth and higher line utilization. After being stable in second half of last year, volume utilization increased slightly in the first quarter. Average loan balances have grown for 7 consecutive quarters and were up 2% from the fourth quarter with the growth in Asset-Based Lending and Leasing driven by continued growth in client inventory. Growth in Middle Market Banking was once again driven by larger clients, including both new and existing relationships, which more than offset declines from our smaller clients.

在新客戶增長和線路利用率提高的推動下，第一季度平均貸款餘額同比增長 15%。在經歷了去年下半年的穩定之後，一季度的使用量略有增加。平均貸款餘額已連續 7 個季度增長，較第四季度增長 2%，這是由於客戶存貨持續增長推動了基於資產的貸款和租賃業務的增長。中間市場銀行業務的增長再次受到大客戶的推動，包括新客戶和現有客戶，這足以抵消我們小客戶的下滑。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 13. Banking revenue increased 37% from a year ago, driven by stronger treasury management results, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates. Investment management -- investment banking fees declined from a year ago, reflecting lower market activity with declines across all major products in nearly all industries. While commercial real estate market transactions are down across the industry, our commercial real estate revenue grew 32% from a year ago, driven by the impact of higher interest rates and higher loan balances.

轉到幻燈片 13 的企業和投資銀行業務。銀行收入比一年前增長了 37%，這得益於更強勁的資金管理結果，反映了更高利率的影響。投資管理——投資銀行費用較一年前下降，反映市場活動減少，幾乎所有行業的所有主要產品都出現下降。儘管整個行業的商業房地產市場交易量都在下降，但在利率上升和貸款餘額增加的影響下，我們的商業房地產收入比一年前增長了 32%。

Markets revenue increased 53% from a year ago driven by higher trading results across all asset classes. Average loans grew 4% from a year ago, but were down from the fourth quarter. Lower balances in banking reflected a combination of slow demand, increased payoffs and relatively stable line utilization. The decline in commercial real estate balances were driven by the higher rate environment and lower commercial real estate sales volumes.

由於所有資產類別的交易結果均有所提高，市場收入較一年前增長了 53%。平均貸款較上年同期增長 4%，但低於第四季度。銀行業較低的餘額反映了需求放緩、收益增加和線路利用率相對穩定的綜合影響。商業房地產餘額的下降是由較高的利率環境和較低的商業房地產銷售量推動的。

On Slide 14, Wealth and Investment Management revenue was down 2% compared to a year ago, driven by lower asset-based fees due to lower market valuations. Growth in net interest income was driven by the impact of higher rates, which was partially offset by lower deposit balances as customers continued to reallocate cash into higher-yielding alternatives.

在幻燈片 14 中，財富和投資管理收入與一年前相比下降了 2%，這是由於市場估值較低導致基於資產的費用較低。淨利息收入的增長受到利率上升的影響，但由於客戶繼續將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品，存款餘額減少部分抵消了這一影響。

At the end of the first quarter, cash alternatives were approximately 12% of total client assets, up from approximately 4% a year ago. Expenses decreased 4% from a year ago, driven by lower revenue-related compensation and the impact of efficiency initiatives. Average loans were down 1% from a year ago, primarily due to a decline in securities-based lending.

在第一季度末，現金替代品約佔客戶總資產的 12%，高於一年前的約 4%。由於與收入相關的薪酬較低以及效率舉措的影響，費用比一年前下降了 4%。平均貸款比一年前下降 1%，這主要是由於證券貸款的減少。

Slide 15 highlights our corporate results. Revenue declined $103 million or 83% from a year ago as higher net interest income was more than offset by lower results in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses. Results in the first quarter included $342 million of net losses on equity securities or $223 million pretax and net of noncontrolling interests.

幻燈片 15 重點介紹了我們的企業業績。收入較上年同期下降 1.03 億美元或 83%，因為較高的淨利息收入被我們附屬風險投資和私募股權業務的較低業績所抵消。第一季度的業績包括 3.42 億美元的股票淨虧損或 2.23 億美元的稅前和非控股權益淨虧損。

In summary, our results in the first quarter reflected an improvement in our earnings capacity. We grew revenue and reduced expenses and had strong growth in pretax free provision profits. As expected, our net charge-offs have continued to slightly increase from historical lows, and we are closely monitoring our portfolios and taking credit tightening actions where appropriate.

總而言之，我們第一季度的業績反映了我們盈利能力的提高。我們增加了收入並減少了支出，並且稅前免稅準備金利潤實現了強勁增長。正如預期的那樣，我們的淨沖銷繼續從歷史低點略有增加，我們正在密切監控我們的投資組合併在適當時採取信貸緊縮措施。

Our capital levels grew even as we resume stock common stock repurchases, and we expect repurchases to continue. In the guidance we provided last quarter for full year 2023, net interest income and expenses, excluding operating losses, has not changed.

即使我們恢復股票普通股回購，我們的資本水平也在增長，我們預計回購將繼續進行。在我們上個季度提供的 2023 年全年指引中，不包括運營虧損的淨利息收入和支出沒有變化。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today will come from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Mike, I was hoping to just start out on the deposit side. So when you talk about the influx of deposits from some of the sort of special situations having abated. Does that money actually leave the bank? Or is it just sort of the inflows that are stopped?

邁克，我希望從存款方面開始。因此，當你談論存款湧入時，一些特殊情況已經減少。這筆錢真的離開銀行了嗎？或者只是某種程度上停止了流入？

Yes, the -- Scott, thanks for the question. Look, the inflows stopped, right? And they came in a pretty short period of time and those inflows stopped. And I think what you're seeing since then is just normal spending in the consumer side and normal activity across the other businesses.

是的，斯科特，謝謝你提出這個問題。看，流入停止了，對吧？他們來的時間很短，流入就停止了。而且我認為你從那時起看到的只是消費者方面的正常支出和其他業務的正常活動。

Okay. Perfect. And then I guess maybe to switch gears just a bit. I think in your prepared remarks, you had discussed plans to sort of prudently return excess capital in coming quarters. I was very glad to see the resumption in repurchase in the first quarter. But just given all the kind of cross currents that we've got, whether it's uncertainty on the regulatory environment or uncertainty on the economy kind of countered against your very strong capital levels. Just curious for maybe a little more color on how you would be thinking about share repurchase in -- through the remainder of the year?

好的。完美的。然後我想也許只是稍微換檔。我認為在您準備好的發言中，您已經討論了在未來幾個季度謹慎返還過剩資本的計劃。我很高興看到一季度回購的恢復。但考慮到我們所擁有的所有類型的交叉電流，無論是監管環境的不確定性還是經濟的不確定性都會抵消你非常強大的資本水平。只是想知道在今年餘下的時間裡你會如何考慮股票回購的更多顏色？

Yes. This is Charlie. Let me take a stab. I would say, listen, I think the way we feel about it is our capital levels grew quarter-over-quarter even after we purchased the $4 billion of stock. So it just shows our ability to generate capital, if necessary, because of the environment or regulatory changes or things like that. So because of that, we do feel like we have the ability to continue to return capital to shareholders while we still have plenty of flexibility to deal with anything, which could come our way. And so our excess above the regulatory minimum plus buffers is extremely high beyond what we feel that it needs to be. So we think we can continue to address that and still be very prudent with how we manage capital.

是的。這是查理。讓我試一試。我會說，聽著，我認為我們對此的感覺是，即使在我們購買了 40 億美元的股票之後，我們的資本水平仍環比增長。因此，它只是顯示了我們在必要時由於環境或監管變化或類似情況而產生資本的能力。因此，我們確實覺得我們有能力繼續向股東返還資本，同時我們仍然有足夠的靈活性來處理任何可能發生的事情。因此，我們超出監管最低限度加上緩衝的超額非常高，超出了我們認為需要的水平。因此，我們認為我們可以繼續解決這個問題，並且在我們管理資本的方式上仍然非常謹慎。

Wonderful. Okay. I have a bunch more questions, but I have a feeling they'll be asked going forward as well.

精彩的。好的。我還有很多問題，但我覺得他們也會被問到。

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to get a little bit more granular on some of the expense trends that we're seeing. We've gone through the exercise of benchmarking your segment efficiency ratios versus peers. Clearly, you've made significant strides improving profitability across virtually every segment, commercial CIB and wealth, the PPNR margins are running really in line with the peer group. It's still the consumer efficiency ratio in the mid-60s, which is running well above peers. And I was hoping you could just speak to the opportunity on the expense side within consumer. How much of a benefit should you see from the retrenchment in mortgage? And maybe what do you see as a normalized efficiency target for the segment just given your current mix of business?

所以我想更詳細地了解我們所看到的一些費用趨勢。我們已經完成了將您的細分市場效率比與同行進行基準測試的練習。顯然，您在提高幾乎每個細分市場、商業 CIB 和財富的盈利能力方面都取得了長足進步，PPNR 利潤率與同行集團一致。依舊是60年代中期的消費效率比，遠超同行。我希望你能談談消費者支出方面的機會。您應該從抵押貸款緊縮中看到多少好處？鑑於您當前的業務組合，您認為該細分市場的標準化效率目標是什麼？

Steve, it's Mike. I'll start and Charlie can chime in if he wants. The -- I think when you think about consumer, I think, we still have a lot more work to do there. And it's both in the consumer lending space or the mortgage space as we simplify the servicing side of that business, and that just takes a little bit of time to work its way through needs to be thoughtful and in some cases, requires a little bit of investment in technology and the like.

史蒂夫，是邁克。我先開始，如果查理願意，他可以插嘴。我認為，當你想到消費者時，我們還有很多工作要做。在消費者貸款領域或抵押貸款領域，我們簡化了該業務的服務方面，這只需要一點時間來解決問題需要深思熟慮，在某些情況下，需要一點點技術投資等。

And then on the consumer banking side, we've continued to rationalize the branch footprint and branch set up. We've -- We continue to see teller transactions and other things decline. And so I think you'll see us focus there. And hopefully, what you've seen in that segment is a consistent quarter-on-quarter decline in headcount and other factors, and that will sort of continue to hopefully be the case. And then when you think about just where the end state is, we shouldn't look any different than our peers, our best-in-class peers for each of our segments, including that one. So over a period of time, that's the goal.

然後在消費者銀行業務方面，我們繼續合理化分行足跡和分行設置。我們 - 我們繼續看到櫃員交易和其他事情下降。所以我想你會看到我們專注於此。希望您在該細分市場中看到的是員工人數和其他因素的持續環比下降，並且這種情況有望繼續存在。然後當你想到最終狀態在哪裡時，我們看起來應該與我們的同行沒有任何不同，我們每個細分市場的一流同行，包括那個。所以在一段時間內，這就是目標。

And I would just add, when you look at our -- that segment, we obviously -- mix versus other people is an issue. Our home lending business is today extremely inefficient, which is part of the reason why we made the decision that we made. So we've got a lot of wood to chop there, which will play out over a period of time to make that business more efficient.

我只想補充一點，當你看我們的 - 那個細分市場，我們顯然 - 與其他人混合是一個問題。今天，我們的房屋貸款業務效率極低，這也是我們做出上述決定的部分原因。所以我們在那裡有很多木材要砍伐，這將在一段時間內發揮作用，使該業務更有效率。

And as we've talked about on the consumer banking side, we've done, I think, for many, many years after Mary got her job in the consumer banking operation, our focus was dealing with the cleanup, which they've done an exceptional job in the consumer and small business bank about and then turned our attention to becoming more efficient, which she has worked really hard on. And that's a combination of looking at our branch footprint, staffing within the branches, migrating people to digital, and we're behind on that, but there has been a lot of progress made over the last 1.5 years to 2 years. And so there's still a tremendous amount of opportunity there, but it's in flight.

正如我們在消費者銀行業務方面所討論的那樣，我認為，在瑪麗在消費者銀行業務部門工作之後的很多年裡，我們的重點是處理清理工作，他們已經完成了在消費者和小型企業銀行的出色工作，然後將我們的注意力轉移到提高效率上，她一直在努力工作。這是查看我們的分支機構足跡、分支機構內的人員配置、將人員遷移到數字化的組合，我們在這方面落後了，但在過去的 1.5 到 2 年裡取得了很多進展。所以那裡仍然有大量的機會，但它正在飛來飛去。

Really helpful color. Just for my follow-up, I wanted to unpack some of the NII trends that we're seeing within the wealth side specifically. And there's a big focus right now on yield-seeking behavior if the higher for longer rate environment persists. You and your peers have seen contraction in NII sequentially and continued deposit outflows. I was hoping you could speak to whether you're seeing any abatement in just the pace of cash sorting or yield-seeking behavior as of yet or if it's continued at a pretty healthy clip?

真正有用的顏色。就我的後續行動而言，我想解開我們在財富方面看到的一些 NII 趨勢。如果長期利率較高的環境持續存在，現在人們將重點關注尋求收益的行為。您和您的同行已經看到 NII 連續收縮和持續的存款外流。我希望你能談談你是否看到現金分類或尋求收益行為的速度有所放緩，或者它是否繼續以相當健康的速度發展？

Yes, I'll take that. And when you look at the sequential change in NII, it's really the 2 fewer days in the quarter that drove it. Otherwise, it's pretty flat to the fourth quarter as we thought it would be when we talked in January. When you think about wealth, it's been pretty stable, the trend. It's not accelerating. It's not decelerating at any significant clip at this point. And what we see there is we're capturing that cash that those cash alternatives that people are buying in the wealth business. And so I think that trend will continue for a while. And the good news is we're capturing that in other ways, but the trend has been pretty stable, and that's probably going to be the case for a little longer.

是的，我會接受的。當您查看 NII 的連續變化時，實際上是本季度減少了 2 天。否則，與我們在 1 月份談話時所認為的那樣，第四季度將持平。當你想到財富時，它一直很穩定，是趨勢。它沒有加速。此時它並沒有以任何顯著的速度減速。我們在那裡看到的是，我們正在獲取人們在財富業務中購買的現金替代品的現金。所以我認為這種趨勢會持續一段時間。好消息是我們正在以其他方式捕捉到這一點，但趨勢一直非常穩定，而且這種情況可能會持續一段時間。

The next question will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題將來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mike, I was wondering what your outlook is for the second quarter NII? I mean if you could talk a little bit about the puts and takes to that and what you're thinking for second quarter?

邁克，我想知道您對第二季度 NII 的展望是什麼？我的意思是，如果你能談談看跌期權和看跌期權，以及你對第二季度的想法是什麼？

Yes, John, as you look as things are trending, you can see where deposits are on a period end on an average basis. So that's probably input number one. And then you can see that deposit yields have increased, right? So -- those 2 things are going to be the biggest drivers. You should expect a little bit of a step down from Q1 into Q2. And we'll see exactly sort of what that looks like as we get a little bit into the quarter. But I think the variables are there to kind of come up with a range of outcomes.

是的，約翰，當你看到事物的趨勢時，你可以看到存款平均處於期末的位置。所以這可能是第一個輸入。然後你可以看到存款收益率增加了，對吧？所以——這兩件事將成為最大的驅動因素。你應該期待從第一季度到第二季度會有一點下降。當我們進入本季度時，我們將確切地看到它的樣子。但我認為變量會產生一系列結果。

Yes. Okay. And the outlook for the full year, obviously embeds a pretty big step down from the first quarter starting point. Can you give us any more color about the types of assumptions you have embedded into the full year outlook on deposit flows, mix shift and reprice beta?

是的。好的。而全年的展望，顯然比第一季度的起點下降了一大步。你能給我們更多關於你在存款流量、混合轉移和重新定價 beta 的全年展望中嵌入的假設類型的顏色嗎？

Yes, sure. And as we've talked over the last few quarters, there's still a ton of uncertainty out there with regards to really all the inputs that go into that, right? And whether it's the mix of deposits, the absolute level of where pricing will be. And so our guide assumes that it's still going to be a pretty competitive space for deposits on the pricing side that we will still see some mix shift happening and that we'll see some moderate declines as people continue to spend and the trends happen.

是的，當然。正如我們在過去幾個季度中所討論的那樣，對於真正的所有投入，仍然存在大量不確定性，對吧？無論是存款組合，還是定價的絕對水平。因此，我們的指南假設在定價方面它仍然是一個非常有競爭力的存款空間，我們仍然會看到一些混合轉變發生，並且隨著人們繼續消費和趨勢發生，我們會看到一些溫和的下降。

So as we talked about even last quarter, I think we'll get -- as time goes by, we get more and more information. And so we're hopeful that there's upside, but to the forecast, but we'll see that in the second half of the year, and it will be a function of how all those factors play out, but we're hopeful that we'll see that and there'll be some upside there.

因此，正如我們甚至在上個季度談到的那樣，我認為我們會得到——隨著時間的推移，我們會得到越來越多的信息。所以我們希望有上行空間，但對於預測，但我們會在今年下半年看到，這將取決於所有這些因素如何發揮作用，但我們希望我們會看到的，那裡會有一些好處。

The next question comes from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I just want to ask a follow-up on the cost side. So I think we're all pretty clear on your view of continuing to hold the core flat from here. But I think an ongoing question is just as we look further out, and I know there's no crystal ball here. Like what would you get the line of sight when that next wave of gross saves related to all the duplicative and extra buildup in the infrastructure related to risk compliance, et cetera? When you get the line of sight on when you can start to sunset that? Because I know you talked about that as a big point of how you get the ROE up over the medium term.

我只想問一下成本方面的後續行動。所以我認為我們都非常清楚你的觀點，即從這裡繼續保持核心持平。但我認為一個持續的問題就是我們看得更遠，而且我知道這裡沒有水晶球。就像當下一波與風險合規相關的基礎設施中的所有重複和額外建設相關的總節省等時，您會看到什麼？當你把視線放在什麼時候可以開始日落那？因為我知道你談到瞭如何在中期提高 ROE 的一個重點。

Yes, Ken, let me try to clarify a little bit of that. So I think when you look at what, we've we talked about last quarter in terms of getting to a 15% ROTCE in the medium term, that didn't assume that we would have to take out a significant amount of the cost related to the risk and regulatory build-outs that we're doing. And that efficiency on those expenses will be out a little while. It could be years in terms of -- before we really get at some of that. So -- but I think our focus is to get the return to a sustainable 15% in the medium term by not having to rely on that. It really goes back to what we talked about really making sure capital gets optimized, not just in terms of shareholder return, but also across the balance sheet requires us to continue to execute on the efficiency initiatives outside of the risk and regulatory work, and then we'll start to get the benefit of some of the investments that we've been making now for the last couple of years.

是的，肯，讓我試著澄清一點。所以我想當你看什麼的時候，我們在上個季度談到了在中期達到 15% 的 ROTCE，這並沒有假設我們必須拿出大量相關的成本我們正在做的風險和監管建設。這些費用的效率將在一段時間後消失。就我們真正了解其中的一些內容而言，可能需要數年時間。所以 - 但我認為我們的重點是在中期通過不必依賴它來獲得可持續的 15% 的回報。這真的回到了我們所說的真正確保資本得到優化，不僅在股東回報方面，而且在整個資產負債表方面，這要求我們繼續執行風險和監管工作之外的效率舉措，然後我們將開始受益於過去幾年我們一直在進行的一些投資。

And I'll just add to that, just to be clear, when we think about the opportunities to continue to drive efficiency in the company, we're not -- we don't even think about all the expenses related to the risk and regulatory framework work that we're doing. That work is -- and those expenses are -- they're necessary, and those are not excuse for us not to be efficient in everything else that we do. And so as we talked about in the consumer business as a second ago, we look across all the things that we do, and there's still significant opportunity to just become more efficient and either reduce the expense base or provide more capacity to invest going forward. And at some point, can we become more efficient in how we run the risk infrastructure of the company, probably. But that's not on the radar screen and not necessary for us to achieve our efficiency goals.

我還要補充一點，為了清楚起見，當我們考慮繼續提高公司效率的機會時，我們並沒有——我們甚至沒有考慮與風險和風險相關的所有費用我們正在做的監管框架工作。那項工作 - 那些費用 - 它們是必要的，並且這些都不是我們在我們所做的其他事情上效率不高的藉口。因此，正如我們剛才在消費者業務中談到的那樣，我們審視了我們所做的所有事情，並且仍然有重要的機會來提高效率，或者減少費用基礎，或者提供更多的投資能力。在某些時候，我們能否更有效地運行公司的風險基礎設施？但這不在雷達屏幕上，也不是我們實現效率目標所必需的。

One just a question on the fee side. I know watching your trading results are a lot different than watching some of the bigger peers. But just looking at that $1.3 billion on the face of the income statement this quarter, in the context of the environment. Can you help us put that into context? Was that just an exceptional result this quarter? Did it have anything we should be mindful of as we think forward and just your general outlook there?

一個只是關於費用方面的問題。我知道觀察您的交易結果與觀察一些較大的同行有很大不同。但是，在環境背景下，看看本季度損益表上的 13 億美元。你能幫我們把它放在上下文中嗎？這只是本季度的一個例外結果嗎？在我們思考未來時，它有什麼我們應該注意的嗎？只是你在那裡的總體看法？

Yes, sure. We certainly benefited from the volatility that we saw, particularly in the rate market and other -- some of the other asset classes in the quarter. and you can see that in the results. But when you look at some of the core platforms in FX and other areas, we've been just consistently investing in some of those platforms. So hopefully, over time, you'll see good results there. But the quarter definitely was influenced by the volatility that we saw across the market.

是的，當然。我們當然受益於我們所看到的波動，特別是在利率市場和其他 - 本季度的其他一些資產類別。你可以在結果中看到這一點。但是，當您查看 FX 和其他領域的一些核心平台時，我們一直在持續投資其中一些平台。所以希望隨著時間的推移，你會在那裡看到好的結果。但該季度肯定受到我們在整個市場上看到的波動的影響。

The next question will come from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I just wanted to follow up on the capital comments. I guess, Charlie, you talked about this. Is it fair for us to assume clearly, we have the SCB coming out of the stress test, that will be one data point and then the Basel reforms. Should we assume that the CET1 likely drift higher, maybe 11%, maybe higher in the near term, while you still buy back stock? Is that the right assumption?

我只是想跟進資本評論。我想，查理，你談到了這個。我們是否可以清楚地假設，我們讓 SCB 完成壓力測試，這將是一個數據點，然後是巴塞爾改革。我們是否應該假設 CET1 可能在短期內走高，也許 11%，也許更高，而您仍在回購股票？這是正確的假設嗎？

And secondly, I think, Mike, you mentioned about optimizing for capital in RWA. Just maybe if you can call out a few things that you can do to optimize RWA relative to where the balance sheet is today?

其次，我認為，邁克，你提到了 RWA 中的資本優化。也許如果你能說出一些你可以做的事情來優化 RWA 相對於今天的資產負債表的位置？

Yes, sure. Thanks. I think the simple answer to your first question is no. We don't expect that to continue to keep drifting up. Certainly, we'll find out the results of CCAR with everybody else in June. And then we've got Basel IV, which is a little bit longer time line than that. And -- but we're 160 basis points above the regulatory minimum buffers. We've got plenty of capital to deal with whatever comes out of that. And as we said, over time, we'll get closer to 100 basis points or so above the 9.2%. And so I think there's plenty of capacity to deal with whatever comes and continue to return share -- money back to shareholders, as Charlie said.

是的，當然。謝謝。我認為您第一個問題的簡單答案是否定的。我們不希望它繼續上升。當然，我們將在 6 月與其他所有人一起了解 CCAR 的結果。然後我們有了 Basel IV，它的時間線比那要長一點。而且 - 但我們比監管最低緩衝高出 160 個基點。我們有足夠的資金來應對由此產生的任何後果。正如我們所說，隨著時間的推移，我們將比 9.2% 高出近 100 個基點左右。因此，我認為有足夠的能力來應對即將發生的一切，並繼續向股東返還股份——正如查理所說，將錢返還給股東。

The -- so I think the second part just to begin -- and again, all I was trying to say is we have a lot of flexibility to deal with things that come our way. And so we're not anticipating significant additional capital needs. We're not anticipating that any potential downturn could create additional capital needs inside of the business. All we're saying is that if anything of those things were to happen, we have the flexibility to deal with that, both because of the amount of earnings that we have as well as the existing excess capital that we have. So you'll add those -- you take that, you say, we bought all those things happened while we bought $4 billion of stock back this quarter. So we feel we'll be able to continue to return capital and still maintain a very conservative position.

- 所以我認為第二部分才剛剛開始 - 再一次，我想說的是我們有很大的靈活性來處理我們遇到的事情。因此，我們預計不會有大量的額外資本需求。我們預計任何潛在的經濟衰退都不會在企業內部產生額外的資本需求。我們要說的是，如果發生任何這些事情，我們可以靈活地應對，這既是因為我們擁有的收入數量，也因為我們擁有現有的過剩資本。所以你會加上那些——你說，當我們在本季度回購了 40 億美元的股票時，我們買了所有這些事情。所以我們覺得我們將能夠繼續返還資本並仍然保持非常保守的立場。

Yes. And then just to give you a couple like examples to help illustrate the capital optimization. The mortgage business is one of them. If we want mortgage exposure, we can buy securities. You don't have to always hold the mortgage. If you're buying securities, you don't have to buy UMBS, you can buy Ginnie's. And so there's plenty. And then you can look at each of the underlying portfolios and make sure we're getting the return from a relationship point of view that we think whether that's in the commercial bank or the corporate investment bank. And so I think there's plenty of areas that we can either reallocate capital to clients that we think will get better returns for or optimize some of the underlying portfolios.

是的。然後只是給你幾個類似的例子來幫助說明資本優化。抵押貸款業務就是其中之一。如果我們想要抵押貸款敞口，我們可以購買證券。您不必一直持有抵押貸款。如果您要購買證券，則不必購買 UMBS，您可以購買 Ginnie's。所以有很多。然後你可以查看每個基礎投資組合，並確保我們從關係的角度獲得回報，我們認為無論是在商業銀行還是企業投資銀行。因此，我認為有很多領域我們可以將資本重新分配給我們認為會獲得更好回報的客戶，或者優化一些基礎投資組合。

Got it. And just one separate question. You made tremendous progress, Charlie, since taking over on the compliance risk management front. There was a news article last night talking about some OCC MRAs. I don't expect you to comment on that. But -- just give us a sense from a shareholder perspective, your level of confidence around the risk of another 2 dropping and a major setback to all the efforts and actions that you've taken to address the regulatory orders to the extent you can, just to give comfort that the progress that's been made is getting us closer to the finish line as opposed to another big setback that could push us back again.

知道了。只有一個單獨的問題。查理，自接管合規風險管理工作以來，你取得了巨大進步。昨晚有一篇新聞文章談到了一些 OCC MRA。我不希望你對此發表評論。但是 - 從股東的角度讓我們了解一下，您對另一個 2 下降的風險的信心程度以及您為盡可能解決監管命令而採取的所有努力和行動的重大挫折，只是為了讓我們感到欣慰，因為已經取得的進展讓我們更接近終點線，而不是另一個可能讓我們再次倒退的重大挫折。

Yes. Listen, I would refer you back to my shareholder letter, where I wrote about it extensively. And I think we still continue to feel exactly the way we felt when we wrote that letter. It wasn't that long ago, which is we have continued work to do. We feel very confident in our ability to get the work done and that we're making progress. And so we live in an environment where things can come up. That's always the case. So we don't want to pretend like there are no risks of other things out there. But if there was anything specific, we would do our best to let you know. And we feel good about the progress that we're making and are extremely focused on making sure that we've got all the attention decked against it, but we're confident that the things that we're doing will close the gaps that existed at the company when we got here.

是的。聽著，我會讓你回到我的股東信中，我在信中廣泛地寫了這封信。而且我認為我們仍然會繼續感受到我們寫那封信時的感受。就在不久之前，我們還在繼續努力。我們對完成工作以及取得進展的能力充滿信心。因此，我們生活在一個可以出現問題的環境中。情況總是如此。所以我們不想假裝沒有其他事情的風險。但如果有任何具體內容，我們會盡力讓您知道。我們對我們正在取得的進展感到滿意，並且非常專注於確保我們得到了所有的關注，但我們相信我們正在做的事情將縮小存在的差距我們來的時候在公司。

The next question comes from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the NII drivers, can you maybe give us an updated expectation on how you're thinking about loan growth here as you look through 2023? I know you cited some of the pressures on the consumer side, but some of the favorable trends still in commercial. And then separately, on the deposit side, do you have an updated expectation regarding your total deposit beta as you see pricing pressure continue?

關於 - 回到 NII 驅動程序，你能否給我們一個更新的預期，關於你如何看待 2023 年這裡的貸款增長？我知道你提到了消費者方面的一些壓力，但一些有利的趨勢仍然存在於商業方面。然後，在存款方面，當您看到定價壓力持續存在時，您是否對總存款貝塔有更新的預期？

Yes, thanks. So on the loan side, I think we're definitely seeing pockets of growth in places like the commercial bank, and that's been pretty consistent now for a couple of quarters. It's not -- but the overall growth rate across total loans has moderated for the last 3 quarters, and which is exactly what we thought might happen when we were talking last summer. And so I think it will still be pretty moderate. I wouldn't expect huge growth in loans over the rest of the year. And embedded in our guidance is some low single-digit growth rate in terms of loans for the year. And so I think that's what we're assuming there.

對了謝謝。因此，在貸款方面，我認為我們肯定會在商業銀行等地方看到一些增長，而且這幾個季度以來一直非常穩定。不是——但過去三個季度總貸款的總體增長率有所放緩，這正是我們去年夏天談論時所認為的情況。所以我認為它仍然會非常溫和。我預計今年餘下時間貸款不會大幅增長。我們的指導意見中包含了今年貸款的低個位數增長率。所以我認為這就是我們在那裡的假設。

The -- what was the second part again, John, sorry?

約翰，對不起，第二部分又是什麼？

Yes, it was around the update.

是的，這是圍繞更新。

Deposit beta, sorry.

存款測試版，抱歉。

Yes.

是的。

No. Look, on the deposit side, to date, betas have played out almost exactly what we thought -- how we thought they would. And I think from here, the path of rates will matter. Competition will matter. And so as I mentioned earlier in the call, we're still assuming it's going to be pretty competitive when we give you the guidance that we gave you. And I think we may find that hopefully that it gets -- that maybe we're being a little conservative there, but we do think at this point, it will still be competitive. And I think the betas will be pretty reasonable, though on the consumer side, when you look back after the rates rise stop.

不。看，在存款方面，到目前為止，貝塔幾乎完全按照我們的想法進行——我們認為它們會怎樣。我認為從這裡開始，利率的走勢將很重要。競爭很重要。因此，正如我早些時候在電話中提到的那樣，我們仍然假設當我們給你我們給你的指導時它會非常有競爭力。而且我認為我們可能會發現它有希望得到 - 也許我們在那裡有點保守，但我們確實認為在這一點上，它仍然具有競爭力。而且我認為貝塔值將是相當合理的，儘管在消費者方面，當你在利率上升停止後回顧時。

Got it. Okay. And then separately on the commercial real estate front, maybe if you could just elaborate a little bit on the stress that you're seeing. I know you discussed office, maybe can you talk about your LTVs in office maybe on a refreshed basis, if you happen to have that and maybe in other portfolios as well, because clearly, the change between origination LTVs versus where we're seeing refreshed levels come in are clearly what is motivating some of the impact around reserve behavior? So if you can give us a little color there, that would be helpful.

知道了。好的。然後分別在商業房地產方面，也許你可以稍微詳細說明一下你所看到的壓力。我知道你討論過辦公室，也許你能談談你在辦公室的 LTV，如果你碰巧有的話，也許在其他投資組合中也是如此，因為很明顯，原始 LTV 與我們看到的更新之間的變化顯然是什麼激發了圍繞儲備行為的一些影響？所以如果你能給我們一點顏色，那會很有幫助。

Yes, sure. Look, in the office space right now, as many others have said, too, like this is going to play out over an extended period of time. We're not seeing a lot of near-term stress in terms of what -- whether clients are current or seeing very big issues on a property-by-property basis at this point, but we do expect some of that to come. And I think it will be for all of the reasons that everyone is reporting on, right? And in particular, it will be in cities that you see weakness in places like San Francisco and L.A., a little bit in Seattle. And so it's all the places where either lease rates are already lower than the national average or the secular changes around back to office are changing a little bit more of a bigger way.

是的，當然。看，現在在辦公空間裡，正如許多其他人所說的那樣，這將在很長一段時間內發揮作用。我們沒有看到很多短期壓力——無論客戶是當前的還是在逐個財產的基礎上看到非常大的問題，但我們確實預計其中一些會出現。而且我認為這將是出於每個人都在報告的所有原因，對嗎？特別是在城市中，你會看到舊金山和洛杉磯等地的疲軟，西雅圖也有一點。因此，在所有這些地方，要么租賃率已經低於全國平均水平，要么重返辦公室的長期變化正在以更大的方式發生變化。

And -- but it's going to take time. And we just haven't seen it translate into lost content here, and we're going very granular property by property. And so giving you LTV numbers from a portfolio -- at a portfolio basis really isn't that helpful at this point, because it really is going to be a matter of like what each of these underlying properties look like and what the issues are there. And we haven't seen a lot of trades happening either recently. And so that also will impact how you think about the valuations. And what we're doing is really just making sure we stress it in a whole bunch of different ways on a property level basis to make sure we understand where the potential issues might come from.

而且——但這需要時間。我們還沒有看到它在這裡轉化為丟失的內容，我們將逐個屬性地進行非常精細的處理。因此，從投資組合中給你 LTV 數字——在投資組合的基礎上，在這一點上真的沒有多大幫助，因為這真的是一個問題，比如這些基礎屬性中的每一個是什麼樣子的，以及那裡存在什麼問題.而且我們最近也沒有看到很多交易發生。因此，這也會影響您對估值的看法。我們正在做的實際上只是確保我們在屬性級別的基礎上以各種不同的方式強調它，以確保我們了解潛在問題可能來自何處。

The next question comes from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

A couple of questions, a little bit of a follow-up. But one on the credit side, I wanted to just understand a little bit about the recoveries in commercial. I know in the deck, you mentioned that commercial NCOs were down, in part due to higher recoveries. And I just wanted to understand how long you see those recoveries persisting. And is there any driver for them actually increasing from here?

幾個問題，一些跟進。但在信貸方面，我只想了解一點商業復甦的情況。我知道在甲板上，你提到商業 NCO 下降，部分原因是回收率較高。我只是想了解您看到這些復甦持續了多長時間。他們是否有任何驅動因素實際上從這裡增加？

Yes. There really isn't any story there, Betsy. I mean we get recoveries every quarter, and there really isn't a significant trend change one way or the other. And again, it's going to come back down to individual underlying issues or situations that drive it quarter-to-quarter. But I wouldn't read too much into the trend.

是的。那裡真的沒有任何故事，貝琪。我的意思是我們每個季度都會恢復，而且確實沒有任何重大的趨勢變化。再一次，它將歸結為推動它逐季增長的個別潛在問題或情況。但我不會過多解讀這一趨勢。

Okay. And then separately on wealth deposits. I know earlier in the call, you addressed this that you would expect to see the wealth outflows continue at current pace or so for at least a little bit of time. I'm wondering, is there any anchor that you can give us with regard to wealth deposits as a percentage of client assets that existed pre-COVID that maybe we should anchor back on in modeling that line item?

好的。然後分別放在財富存款上。我知道在電話會議的早些時候，你談到了這個問題，你希望看到財富外流至少在一段時間內以目前的速度持續下去。我想知道，關於財富存款佔 COVID 之前存在的客戶資產的百分比，您是否可以給我們任何錨點，也許我們應該在對該行項目建模時重新錨定？

Yes. I mean what we gave you in my commentary was just cash as a percentage of assets. and it's quite a bit higher than it was before, about 12% now versus 4%. And obviously, deposits is going to be a subcomponent of that. And there are other drivers, right, of how much cash people are going to hold as a percentage of assets. And right now, you're seeing a lot of what is going into cash alts. It's coming out of other asset classes. So it's not -- so it's a little harder to give you a specific number of like deposits as a percentage of assets, because you're seeing people sell equities and other asset classes and drive up those cash balances.

是的。我的意思是我們在評論中給你的只是現金佔資產的百分比。而且比以前高了很多，現在大約是 12%，而現在是 4%。顯然，存款將成為其中的一個子組成部分。還有其他驅動因素，對，人們將持有多少現金佔資產的百分比。而現在，你看到很多東西都進入了現金替代品。它來自其他資產類別。所以它不是 - 所以給你一個特定數量的類似存款佔資產的百分比有點困難，因為你看到人們出售股票和其他資產類別並推高這些現金餘額。

Right. And cash for you is it's including things like MMF and treasury bills, things like that?

正確的。現金是否包括 MMF 和國庫券之類的東西？

Absolutely. Yes. And so I would just take the current balance that you see in the wealth space and the deposit side and assume it continues to come down at a stable pace for a little bit.

絕對地。是的。因此，我只想採用您在財富領域和存款方面看到的當前餘額，並假設它繼續以穩定的速度下降一點點。

And then just last question here on deposit betas. I know you indicated that it should be okay. I guess I'm wondering how you think about deposit betas this cycle versus last cycle, similar, higher, lower? Any sense as to -- versus prior cycle in magnitude would be great.

然後是關於存款貝塔的最後一個問題。我知道你表示應該沒問題。我想我想知道你如何看待這個週期與上一個週期相比的存款貝塔值，相似、更高、更低？任何關於 - 與先前週期的幅度相比的感覺都會很棒。

Yes. Look, I mean it will be different, obviously. And part of what's going to drive that is how long rates stay higher. And I think that will -- we'll find that out over a period of time. But as you can tell, where betas have performed so far, they've performed pretty well when you look at it relative to the last cycle, particularly given how far rates have moved up in excess of what happened last time. And so -- and they're behaving exactly as you might think, right? And if you go portfolio by portfolio, the betas are pretty high on the large corporate side. That's been the case now for a couple of quarters. They're a little bit lower in the commercial bank given the nature of that client base.

是的。看，我的意思是它會有所不同，很明顯。部分推動因素是利率保持高位的時間。我認為這會——我們會在一段時間內發現這一點。但正如你所知道的那樣，貝塔到目前為止的表現，當你看它相對於上一個週期時，它們表現得相當好，特別是考慮到利率上漲的幅度超過了上次發生的情況。所以——他們的行為與你想像的完全一樣，對吧？如果你逐個投資組合，大型企業方面的貝塔係數相當高。現在已經有幾個季度了。鑑於該客戶群的性質，它們在商業銀行中要低一些。

And in the consumer side, they're relatively low given the amount of rate rises that we've seen so far. And so I think on the large corporate side, you'll see those be pretty consistent from here and the consumer side will be a function of all the things we talked about earlier.

在消費者方面，考慮到我們迄今為止看到的加息幅度，它們相對較低。因此，我認為在大型企業方面，您會從這裡看到它們非常一致，而消費者方面將成為我們之前討論的所有內容的函數。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特奧康納。

I was hoping you guys could elaborate on the slowing consumer spending towards the end of the month? Any more color there and any thoughts on what's driving that?

我希望你們能詳細說明月底消費者支出放緩的情況？還有更多的顏色嗎？對是什麼驅動了它有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. It was pretty small when you look at that change. So I wouldn't read too much into it. I think people are still -- there's still a lot of activity out there and consumers are still out spending both on the debit side and the credit side. So I wouldn't read into a couple of weeks.

是的。當您查看該更改時，它非常小。所以我不會讀太多。我認為人們仍然 - 那裡仍然有很多活動，消費者仍然在藉方和貸方支出。所以我不會讀到幾個星期。

Okay. And then separately, I know I always kind of harp on some of these reg issues. And I appreciate the New York Post article yesterday, you can't comment specifically on, but it did allude to some concerns in your trading business. And obviously, it performed extremely well. You've been growing it, although I don't think you're growing it super aggressively. But there's been some political comments, maybe it was, I don't know, 6 months ago or so, that you shouldn't be growing your capital markets business, while you're investing in these other areas. So I guess maybe you could just address the trading businesses overall in terms of how you're growing them in a responsible way? And how you're making sure the oversight of risk management is fine? I mean because, again, externally, it seems like everything is going really well, but there is -- it's hard to tell.

好的。然後分別地，我知道我總是對其中一些註冊問題喋喋不休。我很欣賞紐約郵報昨天的文章，你不能具體評論，但它確實暗示了你交易業務中的一些擔憂。顯然，它表現得非常好。你一直在發展它，雖然我不認為你正在超級積極地發展它。但有一些政治評論，也許是，我不知道，大約 6 個月前，你不應該在投資其他領域的同時發展你的資本市場業務。所以我想也許你可以從如何以負責任的方式發展貿易業務的角度來整體解決貿易業務？您如何確保對風險管理的監督良好？我的意思是因為，再一次，從外部來看，似乎一切都進展順利，但是——這很難說。

We have no concerns over what we're doing in the business. We're not increasing risk in any meaningful way. We've had strong oversight in that business, and we think it continues. And we benefited from business activity, which is focused on customer flow. We have strong financial risk management in the company and have had that for a long period of time. We have strong risk management over our trading businesses and controls. And I would just be really careful to take the source that you're taking and using that to expand into anything beyond from ], was anything meaningful to report we report. And as I said, we feel really good about the progress that we're making, and we feel good about the performance of the company. And I think it's that -- that stands on its own.

我們不擔心我們在業務中所做的事情。我們沒有以任何有意義的方式增加風險。我們對該業務進行了強有力的監督，我們認為它會繼續下去。我們從專注於客戶流量的業務活動中受益。我們公司有強大的財務風險管理，並且已經有很長一段時間了。我們對貿易業務和控制措施進行了強有力的風險管理。而且我會非常小心地獲取您正在獲取的來源，並使用它來擴展到 ] 之外的任何內容，我們報告的任何有意義的報告。正如我所說，我們對我們正在取得的進步感到非常滿意，我們對公司的表現也感到滿意。而且我認為它是獨立的。

The next question comes from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Mike, you talked about some of the reasons why your commercial loan growth was quite strong on a year-over-year basis. Can you share with us -- are you guys seeing any reintermediation where the DCM market was very weak in the quarter for the industry. It was weak last year. Are you guys seeing benefits from that where people are -- corporate and commercial customers are coming to you using your balance sheet more so than possibly 1.5 years ago?

邁克，你談到了你的商業貸款同比增長相當強勁的一些原因。你能和我們分享一下嗎——你們是否看到了本季度 DCM 市場非常疲軟的行業的任何再中介化？去年很弱。你們是否從人們那裡看到了好處——企業和商業客戶比 1.5 年前更多地使用您的資產負債表來找您？

Not in any meaningful way. There's always an anecdotal story, I'm sure, out there, but I wouldn't say it's meaningful.

沒有任何意義。總是有軼事故事，我敢肯定，在那裡，但我不會說它是有意義的。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, I know you gave us some details about the net interest income growth this year. They're still being annualize the first quarter results.

非常好。然後作為後續行動，我知道你給了我們一些關於今年淨利息收入增長的細節。他們仍在對第一季度業績進行年度化。

We lost you there for a second. Can you just repeat the whole second part?

我們在那裡失去了你一秒鐘。你能重複整個第二部分嗎？

Sure. You gave us some details on the outlook for net interest income growth, up 10%. And if you annualize your first quarter number, of course, that's -- that would be greater than the 10% growth for the full year. And you gave us the reasons why there's a lot of uncertainty. The one specific question though is your thinking on the yield curve, and I know this is very hard. Nobody can predict where it's going to be, but are you thinking that the yield curve and maybe a rate cut could be coming sooner and the yield curve comes down when you look at your outlook? Or has your outlook for the interest rates changed, I guess, is the question.

當然。您向我們詳細介紹了淨利息收入增長 10% 的前景。當然，如果你將第一季度的數字年化，那將超過全年 10% 的增長。你給了我們很多不確定性的原因。不過，一個具體的問題是你對收益率曲線的看法，我知道這很難。沒有人能預測它會在哪裡，但你是否認為收益率曲線和降息可能會更快到來，當你看到你的前景時收益率曲線會下降？或者你對利率的看法是否發生了變化，我想，這是個問題。

Well, I think certainly, the market expectations are implying that there will be a decrease in the late part of the year. And so I think that's certainly being priced in at the moment. But I do think that you need to be prepared that that's not going to happen. And I think it's possible it doesn't. So I think as we get a little closer, you'll -- we'll all know. And what we try to do in our guidance is use what the market is telling us, right? So if that doesn't happen, there's -- and rates are higher than what the market is implying, then there will be a little upside there.

好吧，我認為當然，市場預期暗示今年下半年會有所下降。因此，我認為目前肯定會在價格中體現這一點。但我確實認為你需要做好這不會發生的準備。我認為它可能不會。所以我認為隨著我們越來越接近，你會 - 我們都會知道。我們在指南中嘗試做的是使用市場告訴我們的，對嗎？因此，如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼利率就會高於市場暗示的水平，那麼就會有一點上行空間。

Yes. And the only thing I'd add is, listen, in all of this, there's -- and I try to say this in our remarks, which is we've said constantly, we don't know what the future holds. We see what the market is saying. Who knows where the market is right or wrong. You have the Fed share who's talking about expect rates higher for longer. And so we're prepared for a range of scenarios. When we think about giving guidance, we just try and choose a benchmark, which is the market which is it's a scenario and pick your own scenario based upon what you all think and you can make your own determination what it will be, but we're just trying to give you both like a benchmark and what supports that benchmark, but also be clear that there are a range of alternatives out there, which could make the result different. Just trying to be as apparent as we can.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，聽著，在所有這一切中，有——我試著在我們的評論中說這一點，我們一直在說，我們不知道未來會怎樣。我們看到市場在說什麼。誰知道市場是對是錯。你有美聯儲的份額，他們正在談論預期利率會持續更長的時間。因此，我們為一系列情況做好了準備。當我們考慮提供指導時，我們只是嘗試選擇一個基準，即市場，它是一種情景，並根據大家的想法選擇你自己的情景，你可以自己決定它會是什麼，但我們'我們只是想為您提供一個基準以及支持該基準的內容，但也要清楚，有多種選擇可能會使結果有所不同。只是盡量表現得明顯。

The next question comes from David Long of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 David Long。

I appreciate all the color on some of the deposit flows. But let me just ask it in a little different way. From a noninterest-bearing deposits figure, the number, the percentage has come down, how do you expect that concentration to change over the course of the next several quarters?

我欣賞一些存款流的所有顏色。但是，讓我以一種不同的方式提問。從無息存款數字來看，數量和百分比已經下降，您預計在接下來的幾個季度中這種集中度會如何變化？

Well, I wouldn't try to predict it exactly over the next couple of quarters. But I think if you look at -- we're about 32% in the quarter. And if you go back a number of years, pre-pandemic, that was in the mid-20s. And so -- so it could -- and we've said this in other forums that you could see it start to trend towards there. Will it get down there, unknown, but I think you'll see it trend down a little bit more.

好吧，我不會試圖在接下來的幾個季度裡準確地預測它。但我認為，如果你看一下——我們在本季度的比例約為 32%。如果你回到幾年前，大流行前，那是在 20 年代中期。所以 - 它可以 - 我們已經在其他論壇上說過，你可以看到它開始趨向於那裡。它會不會下降到那裡，未知，但我認為你會看到它下降的趨勢更多一點。

Sure. If you look back over, call it, the last 15 years since the great financial crisis, rates have been pretty close to 0 outside of a brief period just before the pandemic, do you see noninterest-bearing deposits going back to pre great financial crisis levels for Wells Fargo or the industry, where we had numbers there in the mid- to high teens?

當然。如果你回顧一下，在大金融危機以來的過去 15 年裡，除了大流行之前的短暫時期之外，利率已經非常接近於 0，你是否看到無息存款回到大金融危機前富國銀行或行業的水平，我們在那裡有中高青少年的數字？

I think that's almost impossible to predict.

我認為這幾乎是不可能預測的。

The last question for today will come from Chris Kotowski of Oppenheimer.

今天的最後一個問題將來自 Oppenheimer 的 Chris Kotowski。

I guess I wonder, how do you anticipate managing the duration of your investment securities portfolio from here? I mean, obviously, it must have extended out quite a bit last year, and we saw the mark-to-mark on it increase across the industry. But I noted kind of the HTM portfolio is down about 7% on during the quarter. And I mean, do you anticipate running that down? And if so, how quickly does it run down if you do nothing?

我想我想知道，您預計如何從這裡管理您的投資證券組合的期限？我的意思是，很明顯，它去年肯定擴大了很多，我們看到整個行業的逐點增長。但我注意到 HTM 投資組合在本季度下降了約 7%。我的意思是，你預計會用完嗎？如果是這樣，如果您什麼都不做，它會以多快的速度耗盡？

Well, I think, obviously, that's going to be a little bit dependent on rates and where rates go, given there's some mortgages, mortgage securities in the portfolio in terms of the burn down. And I think we're going to continue to be thoughtful as we have in the past around thinking about the size of the portfolio in total, including the AFS. And that's really a function of a bunch of things, including how much loan growth we expect to see over a period of time. And then we look at all of the other constraints that we've got to worry about around liquidity and everything else, and we decide on how much goes into HTM and what the makeup of it is. But at this point, we feel comfortable with the quantum and both in terms of the size of the portfolio and the duration of portfolio.

好吧，我認為，很明顯，這將在一定程度上取決於利率和利率的走向，因為就燒毀而言，投資組合中有一些抵押貸款和抵押貸款證券。而且我認為我們將繼續深思熟慮，因為我們過去一直在考慮投資組合的總規模，包括 AFS。這實際上是一系列因素的函數，包括我們期望在一段時間內看到多少貸款增長。然後我們看看我們必須擔心的關於流動性和其他一切的所有其他限制，我們決定有多少進入 HTM 以及它的構成是什麼。但在這一點上，我們對投資組合的規模以及投資組合的持續時間感到滿意。

Okay. So you anticipate keeping it roughly out the size, all things being equal? Or does it run down?

好的。因此，您希望在所有條件都相同的情況下將其大致保持在尺寸之外？或者它會耗盡嗎？

I think we'll make that decision over time. I don't anticipate portfolio getting much bigger from here over the next few quarters, but I think we'll make that decision over time. And then the burn down will be what it is based on where rates and natural maturities of the portfolio go. .

我想我們會隨著時間的推移做出這個決定。我預計未來幾個季度的投資組合不會從這裡變得更大，但我認為我們會隨著時間的推移做出這個決定。然後，燃盡將取決於投資組合的利率和自然期限。 .

All right. Everyone, thanks so much. Appreciate it, and we'll talk to you soon. Take care.

好的。大家，非常感謝。非常感謝，我們會盡快與您聯繫。小心。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。此時，各方可能會斷開連接。