富國銀行 (WFC) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人，投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss second quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf；我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第二季度的業績並回答您的問題。正在錄製此通話。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our second quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck, are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上提供了我們的第二季度收益材料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和演示文稿。我還想提醒您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素，包括今天提交的包含我們收益材料的 8-K 表格。

Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的對賬，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks very much, John. Good morning. I'll make some brief comments about our second quarter results, the operating environment and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review second quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.

非常感謝，約翰。早上好。我將對我們的第二季度業績、運營環境做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後，在我們回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以更詳細地審查第二季度的結果。

Let me start with some second quarter highlights. We earned $3.1 billion in the second quarter. Our results included a $576 million impairment of equity securities, predominantly in our venture capital business due to market conditions.

讓我從第二季度的一些亮點開始。我們在第二季度賺了 31 億美元。我們的結果包括 5.76 億美元的股本證券減值，主要是由於市場條件導致的風險投資業務。

Revenue declined as growth in net interest income driven by rising interest rates and higher loan balances was more than offset by lower noninterest income as market conditions negatively impacted our venture capital, mortgage banking, investment banking and wealth management advisory businesses. We continued to execute on our efficiency initiatives, and our expenses declined from a year ago even with inflationary pressures and higher operating losses.

由於市場狀況對我們的風險投資、抵押銀行、投資銀行和財富管理諮詢業務產生負面影響，利率上升和貸款餘額增加推動的淨利息收入增長被非利息收入下降所抵消，收入下降。我們繼續執行我們的效率計劃，即使存在通貨膨脹壓力和更高的經營虧損，我們的費用也比一年前有所下降。

We had broad-based loan growth with both our consumer and commercial portfolios growing from the first quarter and a year ago. Credit performance remained strong. Our allowance reflected an increase due to loan growth.

我們的貸款基礎廣泛增長，我們的消費者和商業投資組合都從第一季度和一年前開始增長。信貸表現依然強勁。由於貸款增長，我們的準備金有所增加。

While we're monitoring risks related to continued high inflation, increasing interest rates and the slowing economy, which will impact our customers, consumers and businesses have been resilient so far. When looking at simple averages across our entire portfolio, consumer deposit balances per account increased from first quarter and a year ago and remained above pre-pandemic levels.

雖然我們正在監測與持續高通脹、利率上升和經濟放緩相關的風險，這將影響我們的客戶，但迄今為止，消費者和企業一直保持彈性。從我們整個投資組合的簡單平均值來看，每個賬戶的消費者存款餘額比第一季度和一年前有所增加，並保持在大流行前的水平之上。

Overall, our consumer deposit customers' health indicators, including cash flow, payroll and overdraft trends are not showing elevated risk concerns. However, we're closely monitoring activity by segment for signs of potential stress. And for certain cohorts of customers, we have seen average balances steadily decline to pre-pandemic levels following the final Federal stimulus payments early last year, and their debit card spend has also been declining.

總體而言，我們的消費存款客戶的健康指標，包括現金流、工資和透支趨勢，並未顯示出較高的風險擔憂。但是，我們正在按細分市場密切監測活動，以尋找潛在壓力的跡象。對於某些客戶群體，我們看到在去年初最終聯邦刺激支付之後，平均餘額穩步下降到大流行前的水平，他們的借記卡支出也一直在下降。

Overall, debit card spending was up 3% compared to a year ago when consumers received stimulus payments. And inflation appears to be impacting certain categories of spending, including a 26% increase in fuel driven by higher prices, while discretionary categories like apparel and home improvement spending were down double digits, driven by fewer transactions.

總體而言，與一年前消費者收到刺激付款時相比，借記卡支出增長了 3%。通貨膨脹似乎正在影響某些類別的支出，包括由於價格上漲導致燃料增加了 26%，而服裝和家居裝修等可自由支配的支出由於交易減少而下降了兩位數。

Credit card spend increased 28% from a year ago, above the industry trend driven by the new products we launched last year, with double-digit increases across all spend categories. However, spending, while still strong, started to slow in May and June. Consumer credit card utilization rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Payment rates remained strong and delinquency rates remain low.

信用卡支出同比增長 28%，高於我們去年推出的新產品推動的行業趨勢，所有支出類別均實現兩位數增長。然而，支出雖然仍然強勁，但在 5 月和 6 月開始放緩。消費者信用卡使用率仍低於大流行前的水平。支付率仍然很高，拖欠率仍然很低。

Our small business portfolio continues to perform well in the aggregate in both delinquencies and losses. Leading indicators such as payment rates, deposit levels, utilization and revolving debt trends do not yet indicate signs of stress. Loan demand from our commercial customers remain strong with broad-based balance and commitment growth.

我們的小型企業投資組合在拖欠和損失方面繼續總體表現良好。支付率、存款水平、利用率和循環債務趨勢等領先指標尚未顯示壓力跡象。我們的商業客戶的貸款需求仍然強勁，餘額和承諾增長廣泛。

Our commercial customers' credit performance remained strong with exceptionally low net charge-offs, and nonaccrual loans were at their lowest level in over 10 years. However, we are monitoring early warning indicators across portfolios including cash flow activity, credit line utilization rates and industry fundamentals for inflation impacts.

我們的商業客戶的信用表現保持強勁，淨沖銷極低，非應計貸款處於 10 多年來的最低水平。然而，我們正在監測整個投資組合的預警指標，包括現金流活動、信貸額度利用率和行業基本面對通脹影響的影響。

Now let me update you on progress we've made on our strategic priorities. Our work to build an appropriate risk and control infrastructure is ongoing and remains our top priority, but we also continue to invest in our businesses to better serve our customers and to help drive growth. This week, we launched our fourth new credit card offering in the past year, Wells Fargo Autograph. Our latest card reflects our momentum in growing our consumer credit card business with new accounts up over 60% from a year ago. We're focused on delivering competitive offerings, and our new reward card provides 3x points across top spending categories including restaurants, travel and gas stations. This is the first of several rewards-based cards we plan to introduce. We continued to improve the digital experience in the second quarter with the relaunch of Intuitive Investor, our automated digital investing platform. We simplified the account opening process and created a faster and better experience for both new and experienced investors.

現在讓我向您介紹我們在戰略重點方面取得的進展。我們建立適當的風險和控制基礎設施的工作正在進行中，並且仍然是我們的首要任務，但我們也繼續投資於我們的業務，以更好地為我們的客戶服務並幫助推動增長。本週，我們推出了過去一年中的第四張新信用卡產品 Wells Fargo Autograph。我們最新的信用卡反映了我們消費信用卡業務增長的勢頭，新賬戶比一年前增長了 60% 以上。我們專注於提供有競爭力的產品，我們的新獎勵卡在包括餐廳、旅遊和加油站在內的頂級消費類別中提供 3 倍積分。這是我們計劃推出的幾張基於獎勵的卡片中的第一張。隨著我們自動化數字投資平台 Intuitive Investor 的重新啟動，我們在第二季度繼續改善數字體驗。我們簡化了開戶流程，為新老投資者創造了更快更好的體驗。

During the second quarter, we began rolling out Wells Fargo Premier, which provides differentiated products and experiences focused on strengthening and growing our affluent client relationships. We are working towards offering one set of products and services that are tailored to the needs of these customers regardless of where they sit within our individual businesses. We will be rolling out more enhancements in the coming quarters to provide a more compelling offering for premier clients.

在第二季度，我們開始推出 Wells Fargo Premier，它提供差異化的產品和體驗，專注於加強和發展我們富裕的客戶關係。我們正在努力提供一套產品和服務，這些產品和服務是根據這些客戶的需求量身定制的，無論他們在我們的各個業務中處於什麼位置。我們將在未來幾個季度推出更多增強功能，為主要客戶提供更具吸引力的產品。

We started to roll out overdraft policy changes late in the first quarter, which included the elimination of fees for non-sufficient funds and overdraft protection transactions. Additional changes will be rolled out in the second half of this year, including providing customers who overdraw their account with a 25-hour grace period to cure a negative balance before incurring an overdraft fee, giving early access to eligible direct deposits and providing a new easy short-term credit product. We expect these changes will help millions of consumer customers avoid overdraft fees and meet short-term cash needs, and we continue to review other ways we can help consumers manage their finances.

我們在第一季度末開始推出透支政策變更，其中包括取消資金不足的費用和透支保護交易。今年下半年將推出更多變化，包括為透支賬戶的客戶提供 25 小時的寬限期，以在產生透支費用之前糾正負餘額，提早獲得合格的直接存款，並提供新的簡單的短期信貸產品。我們預計這些變化將幫助數百萬消費者客戶避免透支費用並滿足短期現金需求，我們將繼續審查可以幫助消費者管理財務的其他方式。

We also continue to invest to better serve our commercial customers. And early in the second quarter, Tim O'Hara joined the Corporate and Investment Bank from BlackRock as Head of Banking. Tim's expertise and insights will help us maximize our potential and achieve even greater partnership and strategic dialogue with our corporate and institutional clients. And he complements the strong leadership team in our markets and commercial real estate businesses, who have helped us navigate recent market volatility.

我們還繼續投資以更好地服務於我們的商業客戶。在第二季度初，蒂姆·奧哈拉 (Tim O'Hara) 從貝萊德 (BlackRock) 加入企業和投資銀行，擔任銀行業務主管。 Tim 的專業知識和洞察力將幫助我們最大限度地發揮我們的潛力，並與我們的企業和機構客戶建立更緊密的合作夥伴關係和戰略對話。他補充了我們市場和商業房地產業務中強大的領導團隊，他們幫助我們應對了近期的市場波動。

We believe we have a significant opportunity to serve our existing commercial customers with corporate and investment banking products in a way that works within our existing risk tolerance. We also believe that for us to be successful as a company, we must consider a broad set of stakeholders in our decisions and actions.

我們相信我們有很大的機會以在我們現有的風險承受能力範圍內運作的方式為我們現有的商業客戶提供企業和投資銀行產品。我們還認為，作為一家公司，要想取得成功，我們必須在決策和行動中考慮廣泛的利益相關者。

Last week, we announced that Otis Rolley will be joining Wells Fargo from The Rockefeller Foundation as the Head of Social Impact, leading community engagement and enterprise philanthropy, including the Wells Fargo Foundation. We continue to move forward in the area of ESG with the announcement of our 2030 reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions attributable to financing activities in the oil and gas and power sectors.

上週，我們宣布 Otis Rolley 將從洛克菲勒基金會加入富國銀行，擔任社會影響負責人，領導社區參與和企業慈善事業，包括富國銀行基金會。我們在 ESG 領域繼續前進，宣布了 2030 年減少因石油、天然氣和電力行業融資活動而產生的溫室氣體排放目標。

As homeownership remains out of reach for too many families, we announced an effort to support new home construction, renovation and repair of more than 450 affordable homes across the U.S. in collaboration with Habitat for Humanity and Rebuilding Together. We also launched our special purpose credit program to help minority homeowners refinance mortgages that Wells Fargo currently services.

由於太多家庭仍然無法擁有房屋，我們宣布與 Habitat for Humanity 和 Rebuilding Together 合作，支持美國各地 450 多座經濟適用房的新房建設、翻新和維修。我們還推出了特殊目的信貸計劃，以幫助少數族裔房主為富國銀行目前服務的抵押貸款再融資。

We continue to support our small business customers through this time of uncertainty, including launching the Small Business Resource Navigator, which connects small business owners to potential financing options and technical assistance through community development financial institutions across the country. We are also helping women entrepreneurs by doubling our support for women-owned businesses through the Connect to More program with complementary mentorship opportunities. We published our inaugural diversity, equity and inclusion report, which highlights the meaningful positive results we've made on our DE&I initiatives.

我們繼續支持我們的小企業客戶度過這段不確定的時期，包括啟動小企業資源導航器，通過全國各地的社區發展金融機構將小企業主與潛在的融資選擇和技術援助聯繫起來。我們還通過 Connect to More 計劃和互補的指導機會，將我們對女性擁有的企業的支持增加一倍，從而幫助女性企業家。我們發布了首份多元化、公平和包容性報告，其中強調了我們在 DE&I 計劃中取得的有意義的積極成果。

For example, in the U.S., our external hiring of individuals from racially or ethnically diverse populations increased by 27% in 2021 compared to 2020, and approximately 1/3 of all internally promoted executives last year were racially or ethnically diverse. As I've said in the past, advancing DE&I at Wells Fargo is a long-term commitment, not a project, and we continue to pursue many of the initiatives in the report and look for ways to deepen our impact.

例如，在美國，與 2020 年相比，我們在 2021 年從種族或族裔多元化人群中招聘的人員增加了 27%，去年大約 1/3 的內部晉升高管具有種族或族裔多元化。正如我過去所說，在富國銀行推進 DE&I 是一項長期承諾，而不是一個項目，我們將繼續推行報告中的許多舉措，並尋找加深我們影響的方法。

Let me just make some summary comments before turning it over to Mike. The Federal Reserve's commitment to an aggressive rate hike cycle as a means to tame high persistent inflation continues to fuel market volatility and is expected to slow the economy, which will impact our consumer and commercial customers.

讓我先做一些總結性評論，然後再交給邁克。美聯儲承諾以激進的加息週期作為抑制持續高通脹的手段，這繼續加劇市場波動，預計經濟將放緩，這將影響我們的消費者和商業客戶。

Despite the economic environment, I remain optimistic about our future. Credit quality remains strong, and we expect net interest income growth to continue given rising interest rates, which should more than offset any further near-term pressure on noninterest income. We remain on target to achieve a sustainable 10% ROTCE, subject to the same assumptions we've discussed in the past, on a run rate basis in the second half of this year, and then we will discuss our path to 15%. This year's Federal Reserve stress test confirmed our strong capital position and our ability to support our customers and communities while also continuing to return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and common stock repurchases.

儘管有經濟環境，我仍然對我們的未來保持樂觀。信貸質量依然強勁，鑑於利率上升，我們預計淨利息收入將繼續增長，這應足以抵消近期對非利息收入的任何進一步壓力。根據我們過去討論過的相同假設，在今年下半年的運行率基礎上，我們仍然朝著實現可持續 10% ROTCE 的目標前進，然後我們將討論實現 15% 的道路。今年的美聯儲壓力測試證實了我們強大的資本狀況以及我們支持客戶和社區的能力，同時還繼續通過股息和普通股回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。

As we previously announced, we expect to increase our third quarter common stock dividend by 20% to $0.30 per share, subject to approval by the company's Board of Directors at its regularly scheduled meeting later this month.

正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們預計第三季度普通股股息將增加 20% 至每股 0.30 美元，但須經公司董事會在本月晚些時候的定期會議上批准。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Thanks, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the quarter was $3.1 billion or $0.74 per common share, which included strong growth in net interest income as we are beginning to see the positive impact of higher interest rates. Our results included a $576 million impairment of equity securities, predominantly in our venture capital business due to the market conditions, which drove a total loss from equity securities of $615 million in the second quarter. Recall that a year ago, when the markets were strong, our results included $2.7 billion of gains on equity securities.

謝謝，查理，大家早上好。本季度的淨收入為 31 億美元或每股普通股 0.74 美元，其中包括淨利息收入的強勁增長，因為我們開始看到更高利率的積極影響。我們的業績包括 5.76 億美元的股本證券減值，主要是由於市場狀況導致我們的風險投資業務，這導致第二季度股本證券的總虧損為 6.15 億美元。回想一年前，當市場表現強勁時，我們的業績包括 27 億美元的股票收益。

While credit quality remains strong, our results included a $235 million increase in the allowance for credit losses due to loan growth. This follows 6 consecutive quarterly decreases in the allowance, including $1.1 billion in the first quarter and $1.6 billion a year ago.

儘管信貸質量依然強勁，但我們的業績包括由於貸款增長導致的信貸損失準備金增加了 2.35 億美元。在此之前，津貼連續 6 個季度減少，包括第一季度的 11 億美元和一年前的 16 億美元。

We highlight capital on Slide 3. Our CET1 ratio was 10.3%, down approximately 20 basis points from the first quarter as declines in AOCI and dividend payments were largely offset by our second quarter earnings. Our CET1 ratio also reflected actions we took to proactively manage our level of capital and risk-weighted assets as well as reduce our AOCI sensitivity by moving more securities to held-to-maturity and hedging securities in our available-for-sale portfolio.

我們在幻燈片 3 上強調資本。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%，比第一季度下降約 20 個基點，因為 AOCI 和股息支付的下降在很大程度上被我們第二季度的收益所抵消。我們的 CET1 比率還反映了我們為主動管理我們的資本水平和風險加權資產以及通過將更多證券轉移到我們的可供出售投資組合中的持有至到期和對沖證券來降低我們的 AOCI 敏感性所採取的行動。

Additionally, we did not buy back any shares in the second quarter. But as Charlie highlighted, the recent stress test results confirmed our capacity to return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and common stock repurchases. We will continue to be prudent and consider current market conditions, including interest rate volatility, potential loan and risk-weighted asset growth as well as any potential economic uncertainty with respect to the amount and timing of share repurchases over the coming quarters.

此外，我們在第二季度沒有回購任何股票。但正如查理強調的那樣，最近的壓力測試結果證實了我們通過股息和普通股回購將多餘資本返還給股東的能力。我們將繼續審慎考慮當前市場狀況，包括利率波動、潛在貸款和風險加權資產增長以及未來幾個季度股票回購數量和時間方面的任何潛在經濟不確定性。

Our 10.3% CET1 ratio remained well above our required regulatory minimum plus buffers. As a reminder, based on the recent Federal stress test, our stress capital buffer for October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023 is expected to be 3.2%, which would increase our regulatory minimum plus buffers by 10 basis points to 9.2%.

我們 10.3% 的 CET1 比率仍遠高於我們要求的最低監管加緩衝。提醒一下，根據最近的聯邦壓力測試，我們 2022 年 10 月 1 日至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的壓力資本緩衝預計為 3.2%，這將使我們的監管最低加緩衝增加 10 個基點至 9.2%。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 5. Our charge-off ratio remained near historical lows and was only 15 basis points in the second quarter. As we previously discussed, losses are not expected to remain at these low levels. And we are closely monitoring our commercial and consumer customers for signs of stress, and we remain very disciplined in our underwriting. Commercial credit performance remained strong across our commercial businesses with only 2 basis points of net charge-offs in the second quarter, which included net recoveries in our commercial real estate portfolio. We also had net recoveries in our consumer real estate portfolios, and total consumer net charge-offs declined slightly from the first quarter to 33 basis points of average loans, as lower losses in auto and other consumer loans were partially offset by higher credit card losses.

轉向幻燈片 5 的信用質量。我們的沖銷率保持在歷史低點附近，第二季度僅為 15 個基點。正如我們之前所討論的，預計損失不會保持在這些低水平。我們正在密切監視我們的商業和消費者客戶是否有壓力跡象，我們在承保方面仍然非常自律。我們的商業業務的商業信貸表現依然強勁，第二季度只有 2 個基點的淨沖銷，其中包括我們商業房地產投資組合的淨回收。我們的消費房地產投資組合也出現了淨回升，消費者淨沖銷總額從第一季度小幅下降至平均貸款的 33 個基點，因為汽車和其他消費貸款的損失減少被信用卡損失增加所部分抵消.

Nonperforming assets decreased $878 million or 13% from the first quarter. Lower levels of consumer nonaccruals were driven by a decline in residential mortgage nonaccrual loans due to sustained payment performance of borrowers after exiting COVID-related accommodation programs.

不良資產較第一季度減少 8.78 億美元或 13%。由於借款人在退出與 COVID 相關的住宿計劃後的持續付款表現，住宅抵押非應計貸款的下降推動了消費者非應計貸款水平的降低。

Commercial nonaccruals continued to decline, and as Charlie highlighted, we are at their lowest levels in over 10 years. Our allowance for credit losses at the end of the second quarter reflect a continued strong credit performance, with an increase that was due to loan growth.

商業非應計項目繼續下降，正如查理強調的那樣，我們處於 10 多年來的最低水平。我們在第二季度末的信貸損失準備反映了持續強勁的信貸表現，增加是由於貸款增長。

On Slide 6, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 8% from a year ago and 3% for the first quarter. Period-end loans grew for the fourth consecutive quarter and were up 11% from a year ago, with increases in both our commercial and consumer portfolios.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們突出顯示了貸款和存款。平均貸款同比增長 8%，第一季度增長 3%。期末貸款連續第四個季度增長，同比增長 11%，我們的商業和消費組合均有增長。

I'll highlight the specific growth drivers when discussing operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 19 basis points from a year ago and 27 basis points from the first quarter, reflecting the benefit of higher rates. Average deposits increased $10 billion or 1% from a year ago, with growth in consumer banking and lending, offsetting declines across our other operating segments. The decline in average deposits from the first quarter reflected seasonality of tax payments as well as outflows from commercial and wealth clients.

在討論運營部門的結果時，我將強調具體的增長驅動因素。平均貸款收益率較上年同期增加 19 個基點，較第一季度增加 27 個基點，反映出利率上升帶來的好處。平均存款比一年前增加了 100 億美元或 1%，消費銀行業務和貸款業務的增長抵消了我們其他業務部門的下滑。第一季度平均存款的下降反映了納稅的季節性以及商業和財富客戶的流出。

Our average deposit cost increased 1 basis point from the first quarter, driven by corporate and investment banking. As I previously highlighted, we would expect deposit betas to accelerate as rates continue to rise and customer migration from lower-yielding to higher-yielding deposit products would likely increase as well.

在企業和投資銀行業務的推動下，我們的平均存款成本比第一季度增加了 1 個基點。正如我之前強調的那樣，我們預計存款貝塔會加速，因為利率繼續上升，客戶從低收益向高收益存款產品的遷移也可能會增加。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 7. Second quarter net interest income increased $1.4 billion or 16% from a year ago and $977 million or 11% from the first quarter. The growth from the first quarter was primarily driven by the impact of higher rates, which increased earning asset yields and reduced premium amortization from mortgage-backed securities. We also benefit from higher loan balances and 1 additional day in the quarter. We started the year expecting full year net interest income to grow by approximately 8% compared with 2021. Last quarter, we raised our guidance to an increase in the mid-teens. With the market now expecting not only more rate hikes but also larger ones, we currently expect net interest income in 2022 to increase approximately 20% from 2021.

轉向幻燈片 7 的淨利息收入。第二季度淨利息收入比去年同期增加 14 億美元或 16%，比第一季度增加 9.77 億美元或 11%。第一季度的增長主要是受利率上升的影響，這增加了盈利資產收益率和抵押貸款支持證券的溢價攤銷減少。我們還受益於更高的貸款餘額和本季度額外的 1 天。今年年初，我們預計全年淨利息收入將比 2021 年增長約 8%。上個季度，我們將指導值提高到十幾歲左右。由於市場現在預計不僅會有更多的加息，而且還會有更大的加息，我們目前預計 2022 年的淨利息收入將比 2021 年增加約 20%。

And as a reminder, net interest income will ultimately be driven by a variety of factors, including the magnitude and timing of Fed rate increases, deposit betas and loan growth.

提醒一下，淨利息收入最終將受到多種因素的推動，包括美聯儲加息的幅度和時機、存款貝塔係數和貸款增長。

On Slide 8 in noninterest income. This quarter, noninterest income -- this quarter, we included highlighting noninterest income to show that the decline from both the first quarter and a year ago was primarily driven by 2 cyclical businesses. Mortgage banking, which has slowed in response to higher interest rates, and our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses, which a year ago generated elevated gains but recognized impairments in the second quarter of this year due to significantly different market conditions.

在非利息收入的幻燈片 8 上。本季度，非利息收入——本季度，我們強調了非利息收入，以表明第一季度和一年前的下降主要是由兩個週期性業務推動的。抵押銀行業務因利率上升而放緩，而我們的附屬風險投資和私募股權業務一年前產生了較高的收益，但由於市場條件顯著不同而在今年第二季度確認了減值。

While all other noninterest income included both positive and negative impacts, it was actually up slightly from the first quarter. The decline in all other noninterest income from a year ago was primarily driven by the impact of last year's divestitures.

雖然所有其他非利息收入都包括正面和負面影響，但實際上比第一季度略有上升。與一年前相比，所有其他非利息收入的下降主要是受到去年資產剝離的影響。

Turning to expenses on Slide 9. Noninterest expense declined 3% from a year ago as expenses related to divestitures came out of the run rate, and we continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives. Operating losses increased $273 million from a year ago, primarily driven by increased litigation expense, which included a recovery in the second quarter of last year and higher customer remediation expense predominantly from a variety of historical matters.

轉向幻燈片 9 上的費用。非利息費用比一年前下降了 3%，因為與剝離相關的費用超出了運行率，我們繼續在效率舉措方面取得進展。經營虧損較上年同期增加 2.73 億美元，主要是由於訴訟費用增加，其中包括去年第二季度的複蘇以及主要來自各種歷史問題的客戶補救費用增加。

Customer remediation matters are complex and take a significant amount of time to resolve and quantify the full impact. While we've made progress, we have more to do to resolve the remaining items.

客戶補救問題很複雜，需要大量時間來解決和量化全部影響。雖然我們取得了進展，但我們還有更多工作要做來解決剩餘的項目。

We're halfway through the year. And while we've had higher operating losses than we expected, revenue-related expenses are trending lower than expected. Our results in the first half of the year also reflected the progress we're making on our efficiency initiatives with lower headcount and reductions in both professional and outside services expense and occupancy expense. We expect to continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives.

我們今年已經過半了。雖然我們的經營虧損比我們預期的要高，但與收入相關的費用卻比預期的要低。我們上半年的業績也反映了我們在減少員工人數以及減少專業和外部服務費用和占用費用的效率舉措方面取得的進展。我們希望繼續在我們的效率舉措上取得進展。

Putting all these factors together, we still expect our full year 2022 expenses to be approximately $51.5 billion as lower revenue-related expense is expected to offset higher operating losses. But as a reminder, we have outstanding litigation, regulatory matters and customer remediations, and the related expenses could be significant and hard to predict, which could cause us to exceed our $51.5 billion outlook.

將所有這些因素放在一起，我們仍然預計我們 2022 年的全年支出約為 515 億美元，因為與收入相關的支出減少預計將抵消較高的運營虧損。但提醒一下，我們有未決的訴訟、監管事項和客戶補救措施，相關費用可能很大且難以預測，這可能導致我們超過 515 億美元的前景。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 10. Consumer and Small Business Banking revenue increased 17% from a year ago, driven by the impact of higher interest rates and higher deposit balances. Our deposit pricing has been stable, but we expect deposit betas to increase over time.

轉向我們的運營部門，從幻燈片 10 上的個人銀行和貸款開始。在利率上升和存款餘額增加的影響下，個人和小型企業銀行業務收入同比增長 17%。我們的存款定價一直很穩定，但我們預計存款貝塔值會隨著時間的推移而增加。

As Charlie highlighted, the deposit-related fees were impacted by the overdraft policy changes we started to roll out late in the first quarter, which included the elimination of fees for non-sufficient funds and overdraft protection transactions. Additional changes will be rolled out in the second half of this year, which will further reduce deposit-related fees.

正如查理所強調的那樣，存款相關費用受到我們在第一季度末開始推出的透支政策變化的影響，其中包括取消資金不足和透支保護交易的費用。今年下半年將推出更多變化，這將進一步降低與存款相關的費用。

On lending revenue declined 53% from a year ago and 35% from the first quarter driven by lower mortgage originations and compressed margins given the higher rate environment and continued competitive pricing in response to excess capacity in the industry. After increasing over 150 basis points in the first quarter, mortgage rates increased over 100 basis points in the second quarter. The impact of higher rates also reduced revenue from the re-securitization of loans purchased from securitization pools. The mortgage market is expected to remain challenging in the near term, and it's possible that we have a further decline in mortgage banking revenue in the third quarter. We are making adjustments to reduce expenses in response to lower origination volumes, and we expect these adjustments will continue over the next couple of quarters. Credit card revenue was up 7%, auto revenue increased 5% and personal lending was up 7% from a year ago, primarily due to higher loan balances.

貸款收入同比下降 53%，較第一季度下降 35%，原因是由於較高的利率環境以及為應對行業產能過剩而持續具有競爭力的定價，抵押貸款發放減少和利潤率壓縮。在第一季度上漲超過 150 個基點後，第二季度抵押貸款利率上漲超過 100 個基點。較高利率的影響也減少了從證券化池購買的貸款再證券化的收入。預計抵押貸款市場在短期內仍將充滿挑戰，第三季度抵押貸款銀行業務收入可能會進一步下降。我們正在調整以減少費用以應對較低的發起量，我們預計這些調整將在未來幾個季度繼續進行。信用卡收入增長 7%，汽車收入增長 5%，個人貸款同比增長 7%，主要是由於貸款餘額增加。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 11. Our mortgage originations declined 10% from the first quarter, with growth in correspondent partially offsetting the decline in retail originations. Refinances as a percentage of total originations declined to 28%. Average home lending loan balances grew 2% from the first quarter, driven by the fourth consecutive quarter of growth in our nonconforming portfolio, which more than offset declines in loans purchased from securitization pools or EPBOs.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。我們的抵押貸款發放比第一季度下降了 10%，代理的增長部分抵消了零售發放的下降。再融資佔總發起的百分比下降到 28%。受我們不合格投資組合連續第四個季度增長的推動，平均住房貸款餘額較第一季度增長 2%，這足以抵消從證券化池或 EPBO 購買的貸款的下降。

Turning to auto. Origination volume declined 35% from a year ago and 26% from the first quarter due to increased pricing competition, credit tightening actions and an ongoing industry supply pressures.

轉向自動。由於定價競爭加劇、信貸緊縮行動和持續的行業供應壓力，創始量較去年同期下降 35%，較第一季度下降 26%。

Turning to debit card. While debit card spend increased 3%, transactions were relatively flat from a year ago as increases in travel and entertainment were offset by declines in apparel and home improvement. Credit card point-of-sale purchase volume was up 28% from a year ago with the largest increases in fuel travel and entertainment. The increase in point-of-sale volume and the launch of new products helped drive a 19% in credit card -- 19% increase in credit card balances from a year ago. We remain disciplined in our underwriting and new credit card accounts.

轉向借記卡。雖然借記卡支出增長了 3%，但交易量與一年前相比相對持平，因為旅行和娛樂的增長被服裝和家居裝修的下降所抵消。信用卡銷售點購買量比一年前增長了 28%，其中燃油旅行和娛樂的增幅最大。銷售點數量的增加和新產品的推出幫助推動了信用卡的 19% - 信用卡餘額比一年前增加了 19%。我們在承保和新信用卡賬戶方面保持紀律。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 12. Middle Market banking revenue increased 27% from a year ago, driven by higher net interest income from the impact of higher rates and loan balances. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue increased 8% from a year ago, driven by higher loan balances. Noninterest expense increased 2% from a year ago, primarily driven by higher operating costs. Efficiency initiatives drove lower personnel expense with headcount down 9% from a year ago.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的商業銀行業務結果。中間市場銀行業務收入比一年前增長了 27%，這是由於利率和貸款餘額增加帶來的淨利息收入增加。受貸款餘額增加的推動，基於資產的貸款和租賃收入同比增長 8%。非利息費用比一年前增加了 2%，主要是由於較高的運營成本。效率舉措降低了人員費用，員工人數比一年前減少了 9%。

Average loan balances have grown for 4 consecutive quarters and were up 13% from a year ago. Utilization rates continue to increase, but they are still not back to historical levels. Clients have increased borrowings to rebuild inventory and to support working capital growth, both of which have been impacted by higher inflation. We also had momentum from adding new clients in middle market banking and similar to prior periods, loan growth was driven by the larger clients.

平均貸款餘額連續四個季度增長，同比增長13%。利用率繼續增加，但仍未回到歷史水平。客戶增加了借貸以重建庫存並支持營運資本增長，這兩者都受到了通脹上升的影響。我們還通過在中型市場銀行業務中增加新客戶而獲得動力，與之前的時期類似，貸款增長是由較大的客戶推動的。

Average deposits declined 2% from a year ago driven by actions to manage under the asset cap. Deposit pricing has been relatively stable, but we expect deposit betas will continue to increase.

在資產上限管理行動的推動下，平均存款較一年前下降了 2%。存款定價相對穩定，但我們預計存款貝塔值將繼續增加。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 13. Banking revenue increased 4% from a year ago, primarily driven by stronger treasury management results given the impact of higher interest rates as well as higher loan balances. Investment banking fees declined, reflecting lower market activity and a $107 million write-down on unfunded leveraged finance commitments due to the market spread widening.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的企業和投資銀行業務。銀行業務收入同比增長 4%，主要是由於利率上升和貸款餘額增加的影響，資金管理結果更加強勁。投資銀行費用下降，反映出市場活動減少以及由於市場價差擴大導致無資金槓桿融資承諾減記 1.07 億美元。

Average loan balances were up 20% from a year ago, with broad-based loan demand driven by a modest increase in utilization rates due to increased working capital needs given inflationary pressures. Commercial real estate revenues grew 5% from a year ago, driven by loan growth and higher interest rates. Average loan balances were up 22% from a year ago with the disruption in the capital markets increasing demand for bank financing and line utilization.

平均貸款餘額比一年前增加了 20%，由於通脹壓力導致營運資金需求增加，利用率溫和上升，推動了廣泛的貸款需求。在貸款增長和利率上升的推動下，商業房地產收入同比增長 5%。平均貸款餘額比一年前增加了 22%，因為資本市場的混亂增加了對銀行融資和貸款利用率的需求。

Markets revenue increased 11% from a year ago, primarily due to higher foreign exchange and commodities trading revenue as clients position themselves for rising rates, quantitative tightening and growing recessionary concerns as well as higher equities trading.

市場收入同比增長 11%，主要是由於客戶為利率上升、量化緊縮和日益嚴重的經濟衰退擔憂以及更高的股票交易而進行的外彙和商品交易收入增加。

Average deposits in Corporate and Investment Banking were down 14% from a year ago, driven by continued actions to manage under the asset cap. There's been more deposit pricing pressure in Corporate Banking than we've seen in Commercial Banking.

由於持續採取資產上限管理措施，企業和投資銀行業務的平均存款較一年前下降了 14%。企業銀行業務的存款定價壓力比我們在商業銀行業務中看到的要大。

On Slide 14, Wealth and Investment Management revenue grew 5% from a year ago as the increase in net interest income due to the impact of higher rates and higher loan balances more than offset the declines in asset-based fees, driven by lower market valuations as well as lower retail brokerage transaction activity. As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so second quarter results reflected market valuations as of April 1, and third quarter results will reflect the lower market valuations as of July 1. The S&P 500 and fixed income indices declined again in the second quarter, and approximately 2/3 of our advisory assets are in equities. So there will be another step-down in our asset-based fees next quarter.

在幻燈片 14 上，財富和投資管理收入同比增長 5%，原因是由於較高的利率和較高的貸款餘額的影響導致的淨利息收入的增加抵消了市場估值下降導致的基於資產的費用的下降以及較低的零售經紀交易活動。提醒一下，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產在季度初定價，因此第二季度業績反映了截至 4 月 1 日的市場估值，第三季度業績將反映截至 7 月 1 日較低的市場估值。標準普爾 500 指數和固定收益指數在第二季度再次下跌，我們大約 2/3 的諮詢資產是股票。因此，下個季度我們的基於資產的費用將再次下降。

Average loans increased 5% from a year ago, driven by continued momentum in securities-based lending. Average deposits declined 1% from a year ago and were down 7% from the first quarter as clients reallocate cash into higher-yielding alternatives. Deposit pricing increased modestly.

受基於證券的貸款持續增長的推動，平均貸款比一年前增加了 5%。平均存款較上年同期下降 1%，較第一季度下降 7%，原因是客戶將現金重新分配到收益率更高的替代品中。存款價格小幅上漲。

Slide 15 highlights our Corporate results. Both revenues and expenses declined from a year ago and were impacted by the divestitures of our Corporate Trust Services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management and the sale of our student loan portfolio. These businesses contributed $580 million of revenue in the second quarter of 2021, including the gain on the sale of our student loan portfolio. And they accounted for approximately $375 million of the decline in expenses in the second quarter compared with a year ago, including the goodwill write-down associated with the sale of our student loan portfolio. The decline in revenue in Corporate was also due to lower equity gains in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses.

幻燈片 15 突出顯示了我們的公司業績。收入和支出均比一年前下降，並受到我們公司信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理的剝離以及我們學生貸款組合的出售的影響。這些業務在 2021 年第二季度貢獻了 5.8 億美元的收入，包括出售我們的學生貸款組合的收益。與一年前相比，它們佔第二季度費用下降的約 3.75 億美元，包括與出售我們的學生貸款組合相關的商譽減記。企業收入的下降也是由於我們的附屬風險投資和私募股權業務的股權收益下降。

In summary, while our net income in the second quarter declined driven by lower venture capital and mortgage banking results, our underlying trends reflected our improving earnings capacity with expenses declining and strong net interest income growth from rising rates and higher loan balances. As we look ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the growth in net interest income to more than offset any further pressure on noninterest income. While we expect credit losses to increase from historically low levels, our consumer and commercial customers are not showing any meaningful signs of stress.

總而言之，雖然由於風險資本和抵押銀行業績下降，我們第二季度的淨收入下降，但我們的基本趨勢反映了我們的盈利能力不斷提高，費用下降以及利率上升和貸款餘額增加帶來的淨利息收入強勁增長。展望下半年，我們預計淨利息收入的增長將抵消非利息收入的進一步壓力。雖然我們預計信用損失將從歷史低位增加，但我們的消費者和商業客戶並未表現出任何有意義的壓力跡象。

As I highlighted earlier, our expense outlook for the year is unchanged at approximately $51.5 billion subject to the risk to the outlook discussed earlier. Finally, our stress test results demonstrated our capacity to return excess capital to shareholders, including the expected 20% increase in our third quarter common stock dividend subject to board approval. We will now take your questions.

正如我之前強調的那樣，我們今年的支出前景保持不變，約為 515 億美元，這取決於前面討論的前景風險。最後，我們的壓力測試結果證明了我們向股東返還多餘資本的能力，包括在董事會批准的情況下，我們第三季度普通股股息的預期增長 20%。我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I appreciate the continuity of the expense guide and also the potential variability. Mike, I was just wondering if you could expand on that. Obviously, the operating losses are hanging higher this year than they had been. So just wondering how you start to get a sense of what those look like going forward? And then also just the underlying, as you mentioned, coming in better because of revenue, just any sense of all -- just how your net saves are looking underneath the surface as well.

我讚賞費用指南的連續性以及潛在的可變性。邁克，我只是想知道您是否可以對此進行擴展。顯然，今年的經營虧損比以往更高。所以只是想知道你如何開始了解這些未來的樣子？然後也只是潛在的，正如你提到的，由於收入而變得更好，只是任何意義上的——你的淨儲蓄也是如何在表面下看起來的。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. First, I'd start with the efficiency program that we've been talking about now for the better part of 1.5 years. And all of that's tracking as we thought it would. So the core driving kind of efficiency through the core business lines and operating groups is sort of working the way we thought. When you look at what's happened this year, as you pointed out, operating losses are higher than what we assumed at the beginning of the year. And those things just can be unpredictable at times just as we work through the backlog of items. You know the accounting standard we work with, right? If we knew about something now, we would accrue for it. If we could estimate it, we would accrue for it. But we're just flagging -- continuing to flag that we still have a pipeline of stuff to work through.

是的。謝謝，肯。首先，我要從我們在 1.5 年的大部分時間裡一直在談論的效率計劃開始。所有這些都按照我們的想法進行跟踪。因此，通過核心業務線和運營團隊提高效率的核心驅動方式有點像我們想像的那樣。正如您所指出的，當您查看今年發生的情況時，運營虧損高於我們在年初的假設。當我們處理積壓的項目時，這些事情有時可能是不可預測的。您知道我們使用的會計準則，對嗎？如果我們現在知道某事，我們就會為之積累。如果我們可以估計它，我們會為它累積。但我們只是在標記 - 繼續標記我們仍有一系列工作要做。

And then as you highlighted, as we think about this year, the increases in the operating loss line have been offset by -- largely offset by the lower revenue-related expenses. And so we still feel good about that $51.5 billion number that we set out at the beginning of the year. And we're going to continue to work through the pipeline of items. And if something is significant in comps, we will be sure to highlight it as we go forward.

然後正如您所強調的那樣，正如我們今年所考慮的那樣，營業虧損線的增加已被 - 很大程度上被較低的收入相關費用所抵消。所以我們仍然對我們在年初設定的 515 億美元的數字感到滿意。我們將繼續處理項目管道。如果某些東西在比賽中很重要，我們一定會在前進的過程中強調它。

Yes. And as a follow-up, I know as you guys talked through the recent conference season, it's hard to get a crystal ball with so many moving parts as you think about 2023. But can you just help us try to at least start to think through some of the pushes and takes? And can you continue to push this towards getting costs down next year?

是的。作為後續行動，我知道當你們談論最近的會議季節時，很難像你們想像的 2023 年那樣得到一個有這麼多活動部件的水晶球。但你們能不能幫助我們至少開始思考通過一些推動和採取？您能否在明年繼續推動降低成本？

Ken, this is Charlie. Let me take that. The way we think about it is as we sit and look towards next year, we certainly know we have some increases to contend with, such as the full year impact of inflationary pressures that we see this year. And we know we've got some increases in FDIC insurance premiums. But as we start thinking about next year and we're really just starting the budget process, our mindset going into it is that we have significant opportunities to become more efficient. We've been -- and it's just more of the same in terms of what we've been talking about. And this has nothing to do with getting efficiencies out of the risk-related work, it assumes that all of that investment continues.

肯，這是查理。讓我接受。我們思考它的方式是，當我們坐下來展望明年時，我們當然知道我們需要應對一些增長，例如我們今年看到的通脹壓力對全年的影響。而且我們知道我們的 FDIC 保險費有所增加。但是當我們開始考慮明年並且我們實際上才剛剛開始預算過程時，我們的心態是我們有很大的機會變得更有效率。我們一直 - 就我們一直在談論的內容而言，它更加相同。這與從與風險相關的工作中提高效率無關，它假設所有這些投資都在繼續。

But we do go into this process with the expectation that we want to see net expense reductions. Now just usual caveats, that excludes revenue-related expenses, which could go up or some of this -- the lumpiness that we've talked about. Just as we think of -- but as we think about that core expense base, we do continue to see opportunities, and we'd like you to see it as well.

但我們確實希望看到淨費用減少的期望進入這個過程。現在只是通常的警告，不包括與收入相關的費用，這些費用可能會上升或其中的一些 - 我們已經談到的塊狀。正如我們所想 - 但當我們考慮核心費用基礎時，我們確實會繼續看到機會，我們希望您也能看到它。

The next question comes from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

I wanted to ask about capital. It looks like you're entering next quarter with over 100 basis points buffer to your pro forma reg minimums. How should we think about where you'll manage capital to and your potential buyback capacity going forward? And given that you paused for SCB partly because of SCB uncertainty, will you get to some level of buybacks likely moving forward here?

我想問一下資本。看起來您將進入下個季度，為您的備考註冊最低限額提供超過 100 個基點的緩衝。我們應該如何考慮您將在哪裡管理資金以及您未來的潛在回購能力？鑑於您暫停 SCB 的部分原因是 SCB 的不確定性，您是否會在這裡進行某種程度的回購？

John, it's Charlie. Why don't I start and then Mike can chime in. Yes. I mean I think your -- no question, we -- clarity of SCB for us at this point does really help. As we sit here today and we look at what's happening in spreads and what's happening with the 10-year that was at 2.92% right now. But we do want to be a little bit just conservative in terms of how we think about managing the capital base. So just to be -- I think to be clear, as we sit here today, we're very happy with the amount of capital that we have, including as we think about that 10 basis points increase that will impact us. We certainly have capacity to buy shares back at this point. And as I think Mike alluded to, we just probably want to wait a little bit just to see what happens in terms of the volatility in spreads and rates before we start to do that. But we certainly, at a point, will do it. We'll just see exactly when that is.

約翰，我是查理。我為什麼不開始，然後邁克可以插話。是的。我的意思是我認為你的 - 毫無疑問，我們 - 在這一點上對我們來說清晰的 SCB 確實有幫助。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們會看看利差發生了什麼，以及目前為 2.92% 的 10 年期發生了什麼。但就我們如何看待管理資本基礎而言，我們確實希望稍微保守一點。因此，我想明確一點，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對我們擁有的資本數量感到非常滿意，包括我們認為這將影響我們的 10 個基點的增加。在這一點上，我們當然有能力回購股票。正如我認為邁克所暗示的那樣，在我們開始這樣做之前，我們可能只想稍等片刻，看看利差和利率的波動會發生什麼。但我們肯定會在某個時候這樣做。我們將確切地看到那是什麼時候。

Yes. Maybe I'll just add one or 2 things, John. I think as Charlie highlighted, we feel good about where we are. I would just point out, we are not -- our G-SIB score is going to stay the same as we go into next year as well. So we don't have another uptick as we go into the beginning of next year. So that's good. And at this point, we don't feel like we need to build capital from where we are to build a bigger buffer. And then we'll just be prudent on buybacks as we go through and through the next few quarters.

是的。也許我只會添加一兩件事，約翰。我認為正如查理強調的那樣，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。我只想指出，我們不是——我們的 G-SIB 分數也將與明年保持不變。因此，當我們進入明年年初時，我們沒有再次上升。所以這很好。在這一點上，我們覺得我們不需要從我們要建立更大緩衝的地方建立資本。然後，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將對回購持謹慎態度。

Okay. And Mike, maybe I can ask a follow-up on the NII revised outlook. What kind of cadence do you see between the next 2 quarters? It seems like you'd have a big step-up both this coming quarter and the third quarter and then again in the fourth.

好的。還有邁克，也許我可以就 NII 修訂後的前景詢問後續行動。您在接下來的兩個季度之間看到什麼樣的節奏？看起來你在下個季度和第三季度都會有一個很大的進步，然後在第四節又一次。

And then within that NII equation. If you still have this funding gap between loan growth being very strong and deposit growth slowing, is there still plenty of cash to use to fund the loan growth?

然後在那個 NII 方程中。如果在貸款增長非常強勁和存款增長放緩之間仍然存在資金缺口，是否還有大量現金可用於為貸款增長提供資金？

Yes, sure. I think, ultimately, the exact progression over the next couple of quarters will be a function of how the Fed moves on rates. But I would think of it as somewhat of a ratable step-up quarter-to-quarter. So not -- you won't see some outsized results in one versus the other as we go. And you'll continue to see a little bit of loan growth come through. We think that probably moderates a little bit from what we saw in the first half of the year, but you'll see some loan growth there as well as it steps up.

是的，當然。我認為，最終，未來幾個季度的確切進展將取決於美聯儲如何調整利率。但我認為這在某種程度上是一個可評價的季度增長。所以不是——在我們進行的過程中，你不會看到一個與另一個之間出現一些超大的結果。而且您將繼續看到一些貸款增長。我們認為這可能會比我們在今年上半年看到的情況有所緩和，但你會看到那裡的一些貸款增長以及它的增加。

And as you say, I think the industry has seen deposits come down a little bit. If you look at the latest version of the Fed data, and you can see that in our results as well. Now for us, it's been a little bit of -- you can see the period-end balances in each of the segments, and there's been a little bit of reduction in each of them with the lowest-percentage reduction being in the consumer space. So that's a good thing.

正如你所說，我認為該行業的存款有所下降。如果您查看最新版本的美聯儲數據，您也可以在我們的結果中看到這一點。現在對我們來說，這是一點點 - 你可以看到每個細分市場的期末餘額，每個細分市場都有一點減少，消費領域的減少百分比最低。所以這是一件好事。

And as you know, we -- over the last couple of years, we've brought down much of our wholesale funding that we've got out there. And so we've got plenty of capacity to provide liquidity or get the liquidity we need to continue to support clients.

如你所知，我們 - 在過去的幾年裡，我們已經減少了我們已經獲得的大部分批發資金。因此，我們有足夠的能力提供流動性或獲得繼續支持客戶所需的流動性。

So that loan growth funding is coming from your cash balances and other sources of liquidity that you have?

因此，貸款增長資金來自您的現金餘額和您擁有的其他流動性來源？

Yes. Exactly.

是的。確切地。

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to start off with a question just clarifying some of the NII guidance. Mike, because you noted that it's a ratable step-up and it imply -- the guidance implies about a $12 billion run rate, at least in the back half for NII on an FTE basis.

所以我想從一個問題開始，澄清一些 NII 指南。邁克，因為你指出這是一個可評價的提升，這意味著——該指導意味著大約 120 億美元的運行率，至少在 NII 的後半部分以 FTE 為基礎。

Is it reasonable for us to assume or expect that the exit rate for the year is going to be north of $50 billion? I just want to make sure I clarify that.

我們假設或預期今年的退出率將超過 500 億美元是否合理？我只是想確保我澄清這一點。

Well, Steve, I know you're really good at modeling this stuff. So I'll let you do the modeling. But I think as you pointed out, we're going to see step-ups, right, as we go through the next -- as we did this quarter from last quarter. And that will continue into the third and fourth quarter.

好吧，史蒂夫，我知道你真的很擅長建模這些東西。所以我會讓你做模型。但我認為正如你所指出的，我們會看到進步，對，當我們經歷下一個季度時——就像我們從上個季度開始的這個季度一樣。這將持續到第三和第四季度。

And now exactly what -- it's hard to use 1 quarter, as you know, to adjust run rate for the rest of the -- for the following year. But certainly, the exit rate is going to be a lot higher than even where we are today. And then we'll have to just see what the environment is like at that point in how to think about whether that's a clean run rate to build off of or are there other things that get in the away. And as you can see, over the last -- even over the last 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks, whatever it's been, the amount of volatility that's out there on the long end and what happens with loan growth, does it keep at the same pace, and so there's a lot of factors, I think, that go into what 2023 would look. But as you pointed out, our exit rate will be pretty healthy.

而現在正是——正如你所知，很難使用 1 個季度來調整下一年剩餘時間的運行率。但可以肯定的是，退出率甚至會比我們今天的水平高得多。然後我們必須看看當時的環境是什麼樣的，如何考慮這是否是一個可以建立的干淨運行速度，或者是否還有其他事情可以解決。正如你所看到的，在過去——甚至在過去的 3、4、5、6 週內，無論發生了什麼，長期波動的程度以及貸款增長會發生什麼，它是否保持在相同的速度，所以我認為有很多因素會影響 2023 年的情況。但正如您所指出的，我們的退出率將非常健康。

Mike, just for one follow-up also on the NII guide. Just wanted to get a better sense as to what's being contemplated in terms of deposit beta. The deposit paydown and repricing just came in much better than peers this quarter. You've cited the benefits of the deposit and funding optimization you've executed these past few years. Just wanted to get a sense of how you're thinking about that deposit trajectory that's underpinning some of the NII guidance.

邁克，只是為了對 NII 指南進行後續跟進。只是想更好地了解在存款 beta 方面正在考慮的內容。本季度的存款償還和重新定價比同行好得多。您提到了過去幾年執行的存款和資金優化的好處。只是想了解您如何看待支撐某些 NII 指導的存款軌跡。

Yes. I mean I think that's -- we're not expecting balances to grow much from where they are. And I think we'll see what happens as -- if we see continued outflows of deposits. But as you pointed out, like our mix of deposits as we came in this environment sets us up pretty well, and you can see that in the results so far where the consumer deposits are a much bigger percentage of the overall pie than they were just a couple of years ago. And as you sort of think about betas, so far, they've basically progressed as we thought in each of the segments. And so we really haven't seen much variation to what we thought at this point in the rate cycle.

是的。我的意思是我認為那是 - 我們不期望餘額會從現在的位置增長很多。我認為我們會看到會發生什麼——如果我們看到存款持續流出。但正如您所指出的，就像我們在這種環境中的存款組合一樣，我們的情況非常好，您可以看到，在迄今為止的結果中，消費者存款在整體蛋糕中所佔的比例比他們剛剛增加的比例要大得多幾年前。正如你所想的那樣，到目前為止，它們基本上按照我們在每個部分中的想法取得了進展。因此，在利率週期的這一點上，我們確實沒有看到與我們的想法有太大變化。

Now if the Fed does raise rates 75 basis points at the next meeting, now you're starting to get into territory that we didn't see in the last rate cycle -- rate rising cycle. And so we're going to start to see betas increase from there. And I think that's -- exactly at what pace and where you need to be defensive or not on the wholesale side of the -- on the commercial side, we'll see. And we're pretty nimble and are able to react to it.

現在，如果美聯儲確實在下次會議上加息 75 個基點，那麼現在你開始進入我們在上一個加息週期中沒有看到的領域——加息週期。因此，我們將開始看到 beta 從那裡增加。而且我認為，在商業方面，我們將看到，在批發方面，你需要以什麼速度和什麼地方進行防禦。我們非常靈活，能夠對此做出反應。

But so far, everything has progressed as we thought it would. And so we're going to keep a pretty close eye on it as we go over the next few months. And I think that will -- this quarter and into the fourth quarter, I think, will give us a lot of interesting data points to know how to think about it over a longer period of time.

但到目前為止，一切都按照我們的預期進行。因此，在接下來的幾個月中，我們將密切關注它。我認為這將 - 本季度和第四季度，我認為，將為我們提供許多有趣的數據點，以了解如何在更長的時間內考慮它。

Our next question comes from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Just as it relates to revenues overall, the NII trajectory, obviously, quite strong and in a sense, seems mostly self-evident for now. But I was hoping, Mike, you could discuss please the sort of the fee trajectory in a bit more detail. I guess, we're kind of hovering in a $7 billion or $7.5 billion a quarter range if we exclude some of that noise from the equity marks, the securities gains, et cetera. In your mind, are we sort of at a low and can we grow from that base? I know you touched on mortgage maybe coming down then we've got wealth. But just sort of puts and takes as you see that, if you could, please?

就像它與整體收入有關一樣，NII 的軌跡，顯然，相當強勁，從某種意義上說，目前看來基本上是不言而喻的。但我希望，邁克，您可以更詳細地討論一下費用軌跡。我想，如果我們從股票標記、證券收益等中排除一些噪音，我們會在每季度 70 億美元或 75 億美元的範圍內徘徊。在您看來，我們是否處於低谷，我們可以從這個基礎上成長嗎？我知道你談到抵押貸款可能會下降，然後我們就有了財富。但是，如果可以的話，請按照您的看法進行交易嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Scott. I'll just bring you through some of the key fee lines just to give you a sense of some of the dynamics, right? So on the deposit side, it's been pretty -- we saw a step-down in the quarter, largely a result of the changes we made in overdraft fees.

是的，當然。謝謝，斯科特。我將帶您了解一些關鍵的費用線，只是為了讓您了解一些動態，對嗎？因此，在存款方面，情況非常好——我們在本季度看到了下降，這主要是由於我們對透支費用所做的改變。

We'll see a little bit more step-down as we go through the year, probably more a fourth quarter thing than a third quarter thing, as we implement the additional changes there. But there's -- other than that, there's a lot of stability generally to that line based on underlying activity.

隨著我們一年的過去，我們會看到更多的降級，可能更多的是第四季度的事情而不是第三季度的事情，因為我們在那裡實施了額外的變化。但是，除此之外，根據潛在活動，該線通常具有很大的穩定性。

We'll see what happens in the market and how that drives the investment advisory and asset-based fee line. That's -- it's going to be key to see what happens in the equity and the fixed income markets. And as we bring -- as more stability enters into the market, that really supports that fee line. And as you know, that's our single biggest line item as you look at that fees.

我們將看看市場上發生了什麼，以及這如何推動投資諮詢和基於資產的費用線。那是——看看股票和固定收益市場會發生什麼將是關鍵。隨著我們帶來 - 隨著更多穩定性進入市場，這確實支持了該費用線。如您所知，當您查看費用時，這是我們最大的單項。

Investment banking. It's really going to be market driven, but we -- our fees were pretty low, including the small mark that we had on -- in leveraged finance. And so it's hard to see that going too much lower, but that's really going to be driven by the activity levels.

投資銀行。它確實將由市場驅動，但我們——我們的費用非常低，包括我們在槓桿融資方面的小額標記。因此很難看到它會降低太多，但這實際上是由活動水平驅動的。

Card spend, we're seeing still good. Although it slowed maybe a little in May and June, we're still seeing really good activity in the card space and people are out spending. So that's helpful.

卡消費，我們看到還是不錯的。儘管在 5 月和 6 月可能有所放緩，但我們仍然看到卡領域的活動非常好，人們都在消費。所以這很有幫助。

Mortgage banking, as you highlighted, I think, is likely going to come down a little more in the third quarter. But it's off a much smaller base, and you can still have pretty big -- you can have decent-sized percentage declines there. But it's still -- it's really small dollars at this point. And then we'll see as the market progresses and how that impacts the equity security side, but -- so I think hopefully, we're getting more stability here, but some of it will be dependent upon what we see in the markets.

正如你所強調的，我認為抵押銀行業務可能會在第三季度進一步下降。但它的基數要小得多，你仍然可以有相當大的 - 你可以在那裡有相當大的百分比下降。但它仍然 - 在這一點上真的是很小的美元。然後我們將看到市場的進展以及這如何影響股票安全方面，但是 - 所以我認為希望我們在這裡變得更加穩定，但其中一些將取決於我們在市場上看到的情況。

All right. That's perfect. And if I could switch gears just a bit back to sort of CCAR and the SCB. I guess it's possible I had sort of misinterpreted your guys' remarks over the last few quarters. But I sort of felt like you guys were maybe prepping us for possibly somewhat worse outcome in terms of where the SCB would flush out.

好的。那很完美。如果我能稍微切換一下 CCAR 和 SCB。我想我可能在過去幾個季度中誤解了你們的言論。但我有點覺得你們可能是在為我們可能會在 SCB 將被淘汰的情況下出現更糟糕的結果做準備。

In your mind, how did that CCAR and the -- that SCB, just because it's barely budged, right? So how did that all flush out relative to what you guys have kind of been anticipating?

在你看來，那個 CCAR 和那個 SCB 是怎麼做到的，僅僅因為它幾乎沒有變化，對吧？那麼，與你們所期待的相比，這一切是如何消失的呢？

Yes. What we said a couple of times was that we thought it was possible that it was going to increase, and it did. Now you have to keep in mind like we only have so much visibility into the underlying drivers of what causes it to go up or down in any given year. Now there's a lot of stuff that's public, but there's also a lot of the modeling techniques that aren't quite easy to understand.

是的。我們說過幾次是我們認為它可能會增加，而且確實如此。現在你必須記住，我們對導致它在任何一年中上漲或下跌的潛在驅動因素只有這麼多的了解。現在有很多東西是公開的，但也有很多建模技術不太容易理解。

And so I would say we were pleased with the result, and we spent -- as many do probably, we spend a lot of time on trying to understand the drivers of the risk to the balance sheet and do our best to have positioned ourselves for good outcomes. And so we were pleased that -- where it came out.

所以我想說我們對結果很滿意，我們花了很多時間——就像許多人可能做的那樣，我們花了很多時間來試圖了解資產負債表風險的驅動因素，並儘最大努力為自己做好準備好的結果。所以我們很高興 - 它出來了。

The next question comes from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Just on the -- just on the deposit front, just to go back to that. I just want to confirm. So from here, your best estimate now is that overall deposit balances are relatively stable in the back half of the year? Or do you think you could see some incremental declines just as betas were rising?

只是在 - 只是在存款方面，只是回到那個。我只是想確認一下。那麼從這裡開始，您現在最好的估計是下半年整體存款餘額相對穩定？或者你認為你會在 beta 上升的同時看到一些增量下降嗎？

I think you can certainly see a little bit more decline from here potentially. I think that's not an unreasonable expectation. Exactly timing and how that's going to progress, I think it's hard to predict with any real degree of accuracy just given the environment we're in right now. But I think it's possible they come down a little bit more from here.

我認為你當然可以從這裡看到更多的下降。我認為這不是一個不合理的期望。確切的時間安排以及將如何發展，我認為僅考慮到我們現在所處的環境，很難以任何真實程度的準確度進行預測。但我認為他們可能會從這裡更多地下降。

Okay. All right. Thanks, Mike. And then on the credit front, I want to get your thoughts on the likelihood of reserve bill. I know you added to the reserve for loan growth this quarter. But in terms of an overall build of the reserve as you -- from a CECL perspective, as you look at your economic scenarios, where do you see this quarter with your CECL scenarios that didn't warrant a sizable build? And I guess, longer term, as this plays out and we see the Fed continue to tightening, what do you view as a potential level that you may have to bring the reserve to? Is a pandemic level too high? And maybe you can help us with the magnitude there?

好的。好的。謝謝，邁克。然後在信用方面，我想了解您對保留賬單可能性的看法。我知道您為本季度的貸款增長增加了準備金。但是，就您的整體儲備而言——從 CECL 的角度來看，當您查看您的經濟情景時，您認為本季度您的 CECL 情景在哪裡不需要大規模建立？而且我想，從長期來看，隨著這種情況的發生，我們看到美聯儲繼續收緊政策，你認為你可能必須將準備金提高到什麼潛在水平？大流行水平是否太高？也許你可以幫助我們解決那裡的規模問題？

Well, as you think about the process we go through, which I think is similar to most in a lot of ways, you're really looking at a number of scenarios that you need to be thoughtful about and include in your modeling. And we've now, for a number of quarters in a row, have had a significant weighting on the downside scenario already.

好吧，當您考慮我們所經歷的過程時，我認為在很多方面都與大多數過程相似，您確實在考慮許多需要考慮並包含在建模中的場景。而且我們現在已經連續幾個季度對下行情景產生了重大影響。

And some of those scenarios are pretty severe, right? And so you've got weightings on what some might term [wild] recession, more severe recessions, so you could create a lot of labels for them. But it's a number of scenarios that have different severities of downside.

其中一些情況非常嚴重，對吧？所以你對某些人可能稱之為[瘋狂的]衰退，更嚴重的衰退有權重，所以你可以為他們創造很多標籤。但它是許多具有不同嚴重程度的不利影響的場景。

And so we feel at this point that we've captured what we can look at and see or anticipate at this point based on all the factors that we need to evaluate in our current reserves. And I'll just point out also, as you look at us in the position we're in, yes, we didn't take down all of the reserves that we put up during COVID.

因此，在這一點上，我們覺得我們已經根據我們需要在當前儲備中評估的所有因素，捕捉到了我們在這一點上可以看到、看到或預期的東西。而且我還要指出，當您以我們所處的位置看待我們時，是的，我們沒有取消在 COVID 期間建立的所有儲備。

And so as you sort of look through each of the underlying asset classes, we feel what we have today is appropriate. It's hard to see in the near term increasing them to the level that we had back in the pandemic. But I think that's a hard thing to see at this point. But I think we'll have to make sure as things evolve throughout the next couple of quarters, we'll have to incorporate that.

因此，當您瀏覽每個基礎資產類別時，我們認為我們今天擁有的資產是合適的。很難看到在短期內將它們增加到我們在大流行中的水平。但我認為在這一點上很難看到。但我認為我們必須確保隨著接下來幾個季度的發展，我們必須將其納入其中。

But again, we already have a pretty significant weighting on those downside scenarios already. And it's a very -- as you would imagine, a very robust conversation that we go through each quarter to evaluate how we feel about it. And at this point, we feel it's appropriate for what we can see over the life of those loans.

但同樣，我們已經對這些下行情景有相當大的權重。這是一個非常 - 正如你想像的那樣，我們每個季度都會進行一次非常有力的對話，以評估我們對它的感受。在這一點上，我們認為這對於我們在這些貸款的生命週期中可以看到的情況是合適的。

Got it. All right. One more related to on credit quickly. The $107 million write-down in unfunded leveraged finance commitments that you took, is there a risk of future marks there? Is that primarily just predicated on market spreads? And then separately, what is your -- can you remind us what's your total leveraged loan exposure both in terms of commitments and outright outstandings?

知道了。好的。另一個與快速信用有關。你所承擔的 1.07 億美元的無資金槓桿融資承諾減記，是否存在未來標記的風險？這主要是基於市場價差嗎？然後分別地，你的 - 你能提醒我們你的總槓桿貸款敞口在承諾和完全未償還方面是多少？

Yes, we don't -- you got to think of these as unfunded commitments, not funded, right? So as you sort of think about them, don't think about them outstandings. Think about them as unfunded commitments, #1. And you really have to, over time, think about term loans versus high yield a little bit differently. And on the high-yield side, we don't disclose this but -- we haven't disclosed the actual number. But it's really small in the scheme of the balance sheet in the term loan side, which generally has a little bit more stability to it and less volatility to it is the bigger part.

是的，我們沒有——你必須將這些視為沒有資金的承諾，沒有資金，對吧？因此，當您考慮他們時，不要考慮他們的出色表現。將它們視為沒有資金的承諾，#1。隨著時間的推移，你真的必須以不同的方式考慮定期貸款和高收益。在高收益方面，我們沒有透露這一點，但是 - 我們沒有透露實際數字。但在定期貸款方面的資產負債表計劃中，它確實很小，通常對它有更多的穩定性，對它的波動性較小是更大的部分。

All these deals are subject to further spread widening, given the environment we're in, for sure. We, at the end of the quarter, took our best -- used our best judgment to market where we thought the deals would clear. And we'll see how that goes over the coming months.

鑑於我們所處的環境，所有這些交易肯定會進一步擴大。在本季度末，我們盡了最大的努力——用我們最好的判斷推向了我們認為交易會達成的市場。我們將看看未來幾個月的情況。

The next question comes from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

I just had one more follow-up question. And Mike, I apologize if this is the umpteenth question on NII. I appreciate all your color in terms of what's driving the NII guide of 20%. I was wondering if you could better quantify the deposit beta that you would expect by year-end on a cumulative basis.

我還有一個後續問題。邁克，如果這是關於 NII 的無數個問題，我深表歉意。對於推動 20% 的 NII 指南的原因，我很欣賞你的所有色彩。我想知道您是否可以更好地量化您預計到年底累積的存款貝塔。

Appreciate that you said it would accelerate. But given that some of your peers have given specific guides and given how much the quality of your deposit base has changed for the better over the past several years, I'm wondering if you could give us a sense of what that beta range that you're assuming by year-end on a cumulative basis that underpins that guide?

感謝您說它會加速。但是鑑於您的一些同行已經給出了具體的指導，並且考慮到您的存款基礎質量在過去幾年中發生了多大的變化，我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您的 beta 範圍是多少'是否在年底之前以累積的方式假設，以支持該指南？

Yes. Yes, Erika. I think that's a really hard thing to give a pinpoint number on at this point in the cycle, to be honest with you. And if you think about -- and it's -- there's so many moving pieces right now, I think, between -- and particularly as you sort of get to year-end and the pace of rates and what exactly is the Fed going to do and when are they going to do it. And so I think there's a lot that goes into that, that trying to get a one number is a hard thing to say with a lot of confidence, in my view.

是的。是的，埃里卡。老實說，我認為在這個週期的這個階段給出一個精確的數字是一件非常困難的事情。如果你考慮一下——而且是——我認為，現在有太多的變動因素——尤其是當你快到年底時，利率的步伐以及美聯儲到底要做什麼他們什麼時候做。所以我認為這有很多原因，在我看來，試圖獲得一個數字是一件很難自信地說出來的事情。

I think what we can say though is as you look at the next couple of rate rises, I think you're going to start to see more acceleration. On the retail and the consumer side, the core rates haven't changed much for the big banks at this point yet. So you'll start to see that happen over the next couple of rate rises.

我認為我們可以說的是，當你看到接下來的幾次加息時，我認為你將開始看到更多的加速。在零售和消費者方面，大銀行的核心利率目前還沒有太大變化。所以你會開始看到在接下來的幾次加息中發生這種情況。

The betas will still be pretty small. However, that will start to pick up depending on how fast the Fed goes by year-end. And then I think on the other side of the spectrum on the corporate investment bank and those deposits, whether it's in the FI space or the large corporate space, you're seeing those betas pick up a lot already. So those will continue to accelerate.

貝塔仍然很小。然而，這將開始回升，這取決於美聯儲在年底前的速度。然後我認為在企業投資銀行和這些存款的另一方面，無論是在金融機構領域還是在大型企業領域，你已經看到這些貝塔值已經上升了很多。因此，這些將繼續加速。

And so when you look at cumulative betas, you really have to look at -- and you start to compare different banks, you're really going to have to look at the mix of the deposits. And the CIB deposits are just a much smaller piece of the pie for us right now.

因此，當您查看累積貝塔值時，您確實需要查看 - 當您開始比較不同的銀行時，您確實必須查看存款的組合。而 CIB 存款現在對我們來說只是一小塊蛋糕。

And those are going to -- those will probably move faster than even we've modeled, but it's a small piece of it. So I think we'll see how it goes, and we'll give you as much insight as we can. But I think trying to predict cumulative betas by year-end is hard.

那些將會——那些可能會比我們建模的更快，但它只是其中的一小部分。所以我想我們會看看它是怎麼回事，我們會盡可能多地為您提供洞察力。但我認為試圖在年底前預測累積貝塔值很難。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just following up on that, Mike. So I appreciate you don't want to get pinned down on deposit beta. But is it fair for us to assume just given the mix shift in deposits, given how you managed the balance sheet during the pandemic, we should see your deposit beta at least track in line or maybe even lower relative to the last rate cycle?

只是跟進，邁克。所以我很感激你不想被存款測試版所束縛。但是，考慮到存款的混合變化，考慮到您在大流行期間如何管理資產負債表，我們是否可以公平地假設，我們應該看到您的存款貝塔至少與上一個利率週期一致，甚至可能更低？

Well, I think we've -- as you think about each asset, each type of deposit, to date, they're tracking pretty close to what we saw last cycle. But you then look at the mix of our deposit base, and that's what's changed pretty substantially since the last go around.

好吧，我認為我們已經 - 當您考慮每種資產，每種類型的存款時，迄今為止，它們的跟踪非常接近我們上個週期所看到的。但是你再看看我們的存款基礎的組合，這就是自上次以來發生了相當大的變化。

And so if betas stayed the same as last cycle by product, given our mix has changed, you would see a lower average deposit beta. But there's a lot to play out as we go through the rest of the year but -- in each of the underlying products.

因此，如果按產品劃分的 beta 值與上一個週期相同，鑑於我們的組合發生了變化，您會看到平均存款 beta 值較低。但是，在我們度過今年餘下的時間時，還有很多事情要做，但是 - 在每個基礎產品中。

That's fair. I just wanted to make sure we weren't missing something because there are peers who probably are expecting a higher beta than last cycle. So I just wanted to hear you talk through that.

這還算公平。我只是想確保我們沒有遺漏任何東西，因為有些同行可能期望比上一個週期更高的 beta。所以我只是想听你談談。

And as a follow-up, and I know these are extremely tough in terms of when you think about the market -- private market valuations on your equity investments. But give us a sense of just where the markets are in terms of taking these markdowns. Should we anticipate some more negative marks in a world where there's no big turnaround in equity markets over the next few quarters? I just want to make sure like expectations are level set for that line and how that impacts fees and PPNR.

作為後續行動，我知道當你考慮市場時，這些是非常艱難的——你的股權投資的私人市場估值。但是讓我們了解市場在進行這些降價時的位置。在未來幾個季度股市沒有大好轉的世界裡，我們是否應該預期會出現更多負面跡象？我只是想確保對這條線的期望值是水平的，以及它如何影響費用和 PPNR。

Yes. Sure. And again, it really all depends on what happens in the public equity markets, which is in part driving those declines. If we see some stabilization, that's constructive. If we see much deeper declines, that -- we'll have to evaluate how that impacts these portfolio investments. And obviously, if the market starts to rally, that's even more constructive.

是的。當然。再說一次，這真的完全取決於公共股票市場的情況，這在一定程度上推動了這些下跌。如果我們看到一些穩定，那是建設性的。如果我們看到更嚴重的下降，那 - 我們將不得不評估這將如何影響這些投資組合。顯然，如果市場開始反彈，那將更具建設性。

So I think the public equity markets and -- will be a good guide to how to think about whether or not we have to evaluate whether there's more reductions here or not.

因此，我認為公共股票市場和 - 將是一個很好的指南，可以幫助我們思考我們是否必須評估這裡是否有更多的減持。

Got it. And it looks like we're tracking to a 15% drop, say, maybe by the end of the year. That was a statement. I don't expect you to respond.

知道了。看起來我們正在追踪 15% 的下降，比如說，可能到今年年底。那是一個聲明。我不指望你回應。

No problem. I'm glad you made it rhetorical.

沒問題。我很高興你把它變成了修辭。

The next question comes from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Charlie, Mike, can you give us some color on you guys had some good success in the quarter in generating gains from your trading activities and your debt securities. Can you just share with us what drove that and what your expectations might be in the next quarter or 2?

查理，邁克，你能給我們一些顏色嗎？你們在本季度從交易活動和債務證券中獲得了一些成功。您能否與我們分享一下是什麼推動了這一趨勢以及您對下一季度或第二季度的期望是什麼？

Yes. I mean on the trading side, it was really good performance in our macro fixed income businesses, commodities, FX, a little bit of rates. And so I think that's all what contributed to it. And we'll see, obviously, the continued performance there. It's subject to what we see happening in the markets. It's not -- we're not out there taking any kind of incremental risk than we normally take. It's really helping clients facilitate the flow that they've got there, and so we'll see how that goes.

是的。我的意思是在交易方面，我們的宏觀固定收益業務、大宗商品、外彙和一點點利率的表現非常好。所以我認為這就是促成它的全部原因。顯然，我們將在那裡看到持續的表現。這取決於我們在市場上看到的情況。不是——我們不會承擔比我們通常承擔的任何類型的增量風險。它確實在幫助客戶促進他們已經到達那裡的流程，所以我們將看看它是如何進行的。

And as you can see, it's a relatively smaller number for us versus maybe some others. As you think about the securities portfolio, I wouldn't assume there'll be continued gains there. I think we did do a small remixing of our securities portfolio. Some of it was RWA. Some of it was RWA optimization. I think selling some UMBSs, buying Ginnies that -- where spreads were pretty tight at the time we did it, you save on RWA. You don't give up much yield. And there are a few other minor optimizations we did there.

正如你所看到的，與其他一些人相比，這對我們來說是一個相對較小的數字。當您考慮證券投資組合時，我不會認為那裡會持續上漲。我認為我們確實對我們的證券投資組合做了一個小的重新組合。其中一些是 RWA。其中一些是 RWA 優化。我認為出售一些 UMBS，購買 Ginnies——在我們這樣做的時候點差非常小，你可以節省 RWA。你不會放棄太多的收益。我們在那裡做了一些其他的小優化。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, when it comes to your professional and outside services expenses, can you frame out for us how much of that is tied to your current working with the regulators to lift the asset cap in the cease-and-desist order? When that day eventually arrives, will the professional and outside services numbers really have a kind of meaningful downward move because you've resolved that issue?

很好。然後作為後續問題，當涉及到您的專業和外部服務費用時，您能否為我們確定其中有多少與您目前與監管機構合作以提高資產上限停止令？當那一天最終到來時，專業和外部服務的數字真的會因為你解決了這個問題而發生有意義的下降嗎？

This is Charlie. Let me take a shot at this first. Listen, I think we have -- the work we're doing on all of the risk and infrastructure work, which supports the regulatory matters, it's our own headcount. It's professional. It's a bunch of technology work. It really cuts across a whole series of lines. And I just don't really think it's the right time for us to start even talking about where those saves could come from. And it's just genuinely not on our radar screen in terms of what we're thinking about, where it's going to go or anything like that. So I'd rather just defer the question at this point.

這是查理。讓我先試一試。聽著，我認為我們有 - 我們正在做的所有風險和基礎設施工作，支持監管事務，這是我們自己的員工人數。很專業。這是一堆技術工作。它確實跨越了整個系列。而且我真的不認為現在是我們開始談論這些撲救可能來自哪裡的合適時機。它真的不在我們的雷達屏幕上，就我們正在考慮的事情，它要去哪里或類似的事情而言。所以我寧願在這一點上推遲這個問題。

No problem. Understood. And then Mike, just coming back to your comment about the mix of deposits, and this is a rhetorical question as well. As we see, for the first time in 15 years, consumer deposits in a higher rate environment will make guys like you guys stand out maybe over some of your peers. So good luck with that.

沒問題。明白了。然後邁克，回到你關於存款組合的評論，這也是一個反問。正如我們所見，15 年來第一次，在更高利率環境中的消費存款將使像你們這樣的人可能在一些同行中脫穎而出。祝你好運。

The next question will come from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Charlie, I think you recently mentioned that you're in the process of strategically thinking about where mortgage fits in. And I guess I wanted to understand what kind of framework you're assessing mortgage under. What you're thinking about that?

查理，我想你最近提到你正在戰略性地考慮抵押貸款的適用範圍。我想我想了解你在評估抵押貸款的框架。你在想什麼？

Sure. Yes. And that was, by the way, not meant to be a new comment. That's something that we've been doing ever since I got here, and we brought a new management, including Kristy Fercho, who runs the business.

當然。是的。順便說一句，這並不意味著是一個新的評論。這是我們自從我來到這里以來一直在做的事情，我們帶來了一個新的管理層，包括經營公司的 Kristy Fercho。

And I mean, if you just go back and look at how big we were in the mortgage business, we were a hell of a lot bigger than we are today. And so we have been all along just reassessing what makes sense for us to do, how big we want to be both in the context of what our focus should be in terms of our primary focus should be on service -- serving our own customer base. And then to the extent that we have efficiencies, it makes sense for us to do other business.

我的意思是，如果你回過頭來看看我們在抵押貸款業務中有多大，我們比今天大得多。所以我們一直在重新評估什麼對我們有意義，我們希望在我們的重點應該是什麼的背景下，我們的主要關注點應該是服務有多大 - 為我們自己的客戶群服務.然後在我們有效率的範圍內，我們做其他業務是有意義的。

But I guess my point was we're not interested in being extraordinarily large in the mortgage business just for the sake of being in the mortgage business. We're in the home lending business because we think home lending is an important product for us to talk to our customers about. And that will ultimately dictate the appropriate size of it. And so I would just -- when you look at how much we're originating versus the size of our servicing business, the servicing business over time will become smaller.

但我想我的觀點是，我們對僅僅為了從事抵押貸款業務而在抵押貸款業務中做大做強並不感興趣。我們從事房屋貸款業務，因為我們認為房屋貸款是我們與客戶討論的重要產品。這最終將決定它的適當大小。因此，我只想-當您查看我們的原始收入與服務業務的規模時，隨著時間的推移，服務業務將變得更小。

And I think that's a smart and good thing for us for many reasons. And as I said, we're just going to -- we're going to focus on products that make sense for us in the context of where we can make money over the cycles, given all of the complexities and all the requirements that banks have that not necessarily everyone else have and make sure we're getting the right returns for it.

我認為這對我們來說是一件聰明而好事，原因有很多。正如我所說，鑑於銀行的所有復雜性和所有要求，我們將專注於在我們可以在周期內賺錢的背景下對我們有意義的產品不一定其他人都擁有，並確保我們獲得正確的回報。

Yes. So is this a migration towards originate and retain and the mortgage servicing line goes away as an income statement item because it becomes nonmaterial? Or is there some middle ground that you're looking to?

是的。那麼，這是否是向起源和保留的遷移，並且抵押貸款服務線作為損益表項目消失了，因為它變得不重要了？或者你是否有一些中間立場？

No, yes. No, I would -- I mean, listen. We're still -- I would still assume that a substantial amount of our mortgage production would be eligible for sale. And whether it's through the agencies or through public market, that's all options that we want to continue.

不，是的。不，我會——我的意思是，聽著。我們仍然——我仍然認為我們的大量抵押貸款產品有資格出售。無論是通過機構還是通過公共市場，這都是我們想要繼續的所有選擇。

And so we'll still be originating mortgages across the spectrum. Some of which, we'll keep on balance sheet when it makes sense. And others of which, we'll sell and we will have an MSR. Again, if you just look at how much we originated historically versus what we're originating today, it will naturally just come down over time.

所以我們仍然會在整個範圍內發起抵押貸款。其中一些，我們會在有意義的時候保留在資產負債表上。其他的，我們將出售，我們將擁有一個 MSR。同樣，如果你只看我們在歷史上的起源與我們今天的起源相比，它自然會隨著時間的推移而下降。

Then 2 other questions. One, I think you recently announced a change in your consumer head. Could you speak through the rationale for that? And what the wish list is for your new head of consumer?

然後是另外2個問題。一，我認為你最近宣布改變你的消費者負責人。你能說出這樣做的理由嗎？您的新消費者主管的願望清單是什麼？

Yes. So Mike Weinbach, who had come in to run our home lending businesses, put a whole series of things in place, including if you look at the leadership across all of our card business, our home lending business, our personal lending business and our auto business. All those -- that's an entirely new management team, plus new heads of -- I can go through all the other functions as well. And Mike put that in place, and we talked about it and he wanted to do something different.

是的。因此，進來經營我們的房屋貸款業務的邁克·溫巴赫（Mike Weinbach）採取了一系列措施，包括我們所有的信用卡業務、房屋貸款業務、個人貸款業務和汽車業務的領導力商業。所有這些——這是一個全新的管理團隊，加上新的負責人——我也可以完成所有其他職能。邁克把它落實到位，我們談到了它，他想做一些不同的事情。

And so we're lucky enough to have a gentleman, Kleber Santos, who joined us 1.5 years to 2 years ago. Background was he was at Capital One prior to that and McKinsey prior to that, and Kleber and I have worked extremely closely together. I'm just thrilled to have him in that role.

所以我們很幸運有一位紳士，Kleber Santos，他在 1.5 到 2 年前加入了我們。背景是在那之前他曾在第一資本和麥肯錫工作，而克萊伯和我一起工作得非常密切。我很高興讓他擔任這個角色。

And so I think I wouldn't expect to see significant changes in the things that we've spoken about. We're focused on continuing the product build-out. On the credit card side, again, focusing on customers that are broader customers in the franchise. Building our customer service around that and building out our digital capabilities and all the other parts of the business, which is work that we have underway. So I don't anticipate any material changes from where we are, just the continued trends and the things that we've been talking about.

所以我認為我不會期望看到我們所說的事情發生重大變化。我們專注於繼續產品構建。在信用卡方面，再次關注特許經營中更廣泛的客戶。圍繞這一點建立我們的客戶服務並建立我們的數字能力和業務的所有其他部分，這是我們正在進行的工作。因此，我預計我們所處的位置不會發生任何重大變化，只是持續的趨勢和我們一直在談論的事情。

Great. And then just lastly on wealth. It's an important part of your offering. I'm wondering what you're doing to strategically enhance that offering to your clients, be it either through product or how you're structured, integration with consumer, your IT platform and solutions. Could you just give us a couple of bullet points on what's going on there?

偉大的。最後是財富。這是您產品的重要組成部分。我想知道您正在做些什麼來從戰略上增強向您的客戶提供的產品，無論是通過產品還是您的結構、與消費者的集成、您的 IT 平台和解決方案。你能給我們一些關於那裡發生的事情的要點嗎？

Sure. Let me start, Mike. And Mike and I are both very involved in these conversations with Barry and his team. I think if you look at our wealth business, it's run entirely different today than it was several years ago. We had separate platforms historically here between our brokerage business. We had 2 different private banks that operated under 2 different brands. We had our bank channel. And then completely separately, we had a digital platform, and we had a platform or advisers that wanted to go independent.

當然。讓我開始吧，邁克。邁克和我都非常參與與巴里和他的團隊的這些對話。我認為，如果你看看我們的財富業務，今天的運作方式與幾年前完全不同。歷史上，我們的經紀業務之間有單獨的平台。我們有 2 家不同的私人銀行，以 2 個不同的品牌運營。我們有我們的銀行渠道。然後完全分開，我們有一個數字平台，我們有一個想要獨立的平台或顧問。

The digital platforms and the platform for independent advisers had very little investment in it. And those would run -- but all of those businesses, they were run as separate businesses with separate product platforms and separate technology.

數字平台和獨立顧問平台對它的投資很少。那些會運行——但所有這些業務，它們都是作為獨立的業務運行的，具有獨立的產品平台和獨立的技術。

And so what we've done is we now have one set of products and service capabilities that all of those product lines have access to. And we've combined the entire field under one leader. And we're investing in our digital capabilities, and we're investing in the capabilities of those that want to go independent. So if they want to do that, they can stay here as opposed to elsewhere.

所以我們所做的是我們現在擁有所有這些產品線都可以使用的一組產品和服務能力。我們已經將整個領域整合到一個領導者之下。我們正在投資於我們的數字能力，我們正在投資於那些想要獨立的人的能力。因此，如果他們想這樣做，他們可以留在這里而不是其他地方。

We are building out capabilities across all the dimensions, from the investment capabilities to the banking capabilities, our lending capabilities, offering trust in the other areas of distribution that didn't have access to those in the past.

我們正在建立各個方面的能力，從投資能力到銀行能力，我們的貸款能力，在過去無法進入的其他分銷領域提供信任。

And so it's a huge set of changes, which also bring with it a set of changes in the back end, which we're going to move -- we're moving towards common platforms. And it's something we're really excited about, and we're just at the beginning of seeing the benefits of it. And I think it's one of the things that will make us appear to -- for our financial advisers, to be an extremely attractive place to be, whether they want to be an employee and work for Wells Fargo or they want to be independent and access our capabilities.

因此，這是一組巨大的變化，它也帶來了後端的一組變化，我們將要移動這些變化——我們正在向通用平台移動。這是我們非常興奮的事情，我們才剛剛開始看到它的好處。而且我認為這是讓我們看起來的事情之一——對於我們的財務顧問來說，成為一個極具吸引力的地方，無論他們是想成為一名員工並為富國銀行工作，還是他們想要獨立並獲得我們的能力。

Okay. And that change to moving to common platforms, what's the timing of that?

好的。轉向通用平台的變化，時間是什麼？

Yes. It's not a technology move. I think he's talking about platforms in terms of the overall sort of the way we operate business. So there isn't -- it isn't dependent upon a big technology conversion, Betsy. So -- and then I would just highlight one last thing. Charlie, in his prepared remarks, talked about Wells Fargo Premier. That's step 1 in really helping provide a more differentiated and holistic service offering to our affluent clients in the consumer business. And the wealth piece is going to be a big part of that.

是的。這不是技術舉措。我認為他是從我們經營業務的整體方式來談論平台。所以沒有 - 它不依賴於大型技術轉換，Betsy。所以——然後我只想強調最後一件事。查理在準備好的講話中談到了富國銀行總理。這是真正幫助我們為消費者業務中的富裕客戶提供更加差異化和整體服務的第一步。財富將成為其中的重要組成部分。

And we already have 1,500-plus advisers in the branch system to do it. We already have a great investments platform. And so we're in the early days but building out a differentiated service offering there as well, which will be a big part of the wealth businesses going forward.

我們已經在分行系統中有 1,500 多名顧問來做這件事。我們已經有了一個很好的投資平台。因此，我們還處於早期階段，但也在那裡建立了差異化的服務產品，這將成為未來財富業務的重要組成部分。

Okay. And that's in conjunction with consumer business.

好的。這與消費者業務有關。

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. I would say -- yes, just to expand even further, Betsy. It's really a combination of the advisers and the products that Barry has to offer in our wealth management business. It is also leveraging the lending products that Kleber is now responsible for, including credit card and including mortgage and potentially, auto and some other things there, and an integrated offering with Mary's bank customers who are affluent. So it's an offering across all of our product sets directed in a much more segmented way than we've ever done in the past. And so we're extremely excited about it, and we'll be talking more about things that were -- capabilities that we're going to be rolling out throughout the year.

是的。我想說- 是的，只是為了進一步擴展，Betsy。這實際上是 Barry 在我們的財富管理業務中必須提供的顧問和產品的組合。它還利用了 Kleber 現在負責的貸款產品，包括信用卡和抵押貸款以及潛在的汽車和其他一些東西，以及與瑪麗的富裕銀行客戶的綜合產品。因此，與我們過去所做的相比，它以一種更加細分的方式針對我們所有的產品集提供服務。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，我們將更多地談論我們將在全年推出的功能。

The next question comes from Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Charlie, I just wanted to follow up on your question or your comment about loan growth likely to moderate from the first half. Any color on that? What do you think drives that moderation? Which categories?

查理，我只是想跟進您的問題或您對上半年貸款增長可能放緩的評論。上面有什麼顏色嗎？你認為是什麼推動了這種節制？哪些類別？

Vivek, it's Mike. I'll -- maybe I'll take a shot at that. Look, we've just seen -- I just don't think what we've seen in the second quarter will continue to happen at the same pace. We may get surprised, and it will be a little better than we think. But I think at some point, we just feel, as you look at any of the uncertainty that might be there or other factors that are causing clients to use their lines today, that just may moderate as we go through it.

維維克，是邁克。我會——也許我會試一試。看，我們剛剛看到 - 我只是認為我們在第二季度看到的情況不會繼續以同樣的速度發生。我們可能會感到驚訝，它會比我們想像的要好一些。但我認為，在某些時候，我們只是覺得，當你看到可能存在的任何不確定性或導致客戶今天使用他們的產品線的其他因素時，隨著我們的經歷，這可能會有所緩和。

I wouldn't look at it as some big warning of anything to come. It's just we're being a little prudent in terms of the way we think about that growth rate. And maybe we'll be surprised on the upside a little, but it's just what we're seeing there right now.

我不會將其視為對即將發生的任何事情的重大警告。只是我們對增長率的看法有點謹慎。也許我們會對上漲感到驚訝，但這正是我們現在所看到的。

So you're not seeing any signs like sort of late in the quarter, I think, already starting to show some slowdown or some conversations with clients that are indicating that? Is that...

因此，我認為，您沒有看到像本季度末那樣的任何跡象，已經開始顯示出一些放緩或與表明這一點的客戶的一些對話？就是它...

Not that I would say are super significant at this point. But when you go category by category and say, okay, will spending in the card space continue to increase at the same pace given some of the uncertainty in the economic environment? We'll see, maybe. Commercial real estate, certainly, given what we're seeing in the real estate market there, that appears like it will slow down a little bit again in the second half of the year, somewhat driven by what we're seeing in the capital markets side of that business as well.

並不是說在這一點上是非常重要的。但是，當您逐個類別地說，好吧，考慮到經濟環境的一些不確定性，卡空間的支出會繼續以同樣的速度增長嗎？我們會看到的，也許。商業地產，當然，考慮到我們在那裡的房地產市場看到的情況，看起來它會在下半年再次放緩，這在一定程度上是受我們在資本市場看到的推動該業務的一面也是如此。

And so with the slowdown in deals happening and rates rising, that just is a natural slowdown there. And so I just think you go asset class by asset class, it just feels as though we'll see a little bit of moderation as we go through the rest of the year.

因此，隨著交易放緩和利率上升，這是自然的放緩。所以我只是認為你逐個資產類別，感覺好像我們會在今年剩下的時間裡看到一點溫和。

Okay. And one minor one, Mike, for you. The hung loan loss number that you gave us, was it a gross mark or is it net of fees?

好的。還有一個小人物，邁克，給你。你給我們的掛單損失數，是毛額還是扣除費用？

The loan -- the leveraged finance one, Vivek?

貸款——槓桿融資貸款，Vivek？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

That's after fees.

那是在收費之後。

That's after fees. Okay. So then what's the gross mark on that?

那是在收費之後。好的。那麼，它的總分是多少？

I don't have the exact number in front of me. It's not materially different.

我面前沒有確切的數字。本質上沒有區別。

We have time for one more question today, and that will come from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

今天我們有時間再提一個問題，這將來自德意志銀行的馬特奧康納。

I was wondering if you could remind us the targeted customer within credit card as you lean into that business. And do you think about maybe slowing from the expansion plans there, just given all the recession talk and fears?

我想知道您是否可以在您涉足該業務時提醒我們信用卡中的目標客戶。考慮到所有經濟衰退的言論和擔憂，你是否考慮過那裡的擴張計劃可能會放緩？

Yes. This is Charlie, Matt. First of all, our targeted customer, those that we want to have a broader relationship with, what we have said is that as we've rolled out this new product set, when you look at the credit quality of the borrowers and the spenders that we have been giving our new cards to, the credit quality is actually stronger than it had been historically. And it still is either on target or stronger than we would have modeled for when we rolled the products out.

是的。這是查理，馬特。首先，我們的目標客戶，我們希望與之建立更廣泛關係的客戶，我們所說的是，當我們推出這套新產品時，當您查看借款人和支出者的信用質量時，我們一直在給我們的新卡，信用質量實際上比歷史上要強。它仍然比我們在推出產品時所建模的目標或更強。

It's just we're not competing on credit terms. We're not competing in any way, shape or form in terms of that. We just want to have a quality offering, and we would expect it to be a high-quality card customer that we can do other things with across our franchise.

只是我們沒有在信用條款上競爭。我們不會以任何方式、形式或形式競爭。我們只想提供優質的產品，我們希望它是一個高質量的卡客戶，我們可以在整個特許經營中做其他事情。

And just any disclosure on FICO scores in terms of either the overall portfolio or the customer that you're growing or leaning into?

就整體投資組合或您正在發展或傾向於的客戶而言，是否有任何關於 FICO 分數的披露？

Yes, I think you can get some of that in the Q, Matt. You got to go a little deep into the Q, but you can get some of that in the distribution tables in the Q.

是的，我認為你可以在 Q 中得到一些，馬特。你必須深入到 Q 中，但你可以在 Q 的分佈表中得到一些。

Okay. I'll look for it there. Thanks.

好的。我會在那裡尋找它。謝謝。

All right, everyone. Thank you very much. We appreciate everything, and we look forward to talking to you all. Take care.

好吧，大家。非常感謝。我們感謝一切，我們期待與大家交談。小心。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。此時，各方可能會斷開連接。