富國銀行 (WFC) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thanks, Brad. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss first quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded.

謝謝，布拉德。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf；我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第一季度的業績並回答您的問題。正在錄製此通話。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our first quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上提供了我們的第一季度收益材料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和演示文稿。我還想提醒您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素，包括今天提交的包含我們收益材料的 8-K 表格。有關所引用的任何非公認會計原則財務措施的信息，包括這些措施與公認會計原則措施的對賬，也可以在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll make some brief comments about our first quarter results, the operating environment and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review the first quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我將對我們的第一季度業績、運營環境做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後，在我們回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以更詳細地查看第一季度的結果。

Let me start off with some first quarter highlights. We earned $3.7 billion or $0.88 per common share in the first quarter. Our results included $0.21 per share impact from a decrease in the allowance for credit losses. We have broad-based loan growth with both our consumer and commercial portfolios growing from the fourth quarter. While net interest income was down modestly from the fourth quarter, driven by fewer days in the quarter, it grew 5% from a year ago. Higher interest rates, along with our expectations for continued loan growth should drive higher net interest income growth that we anticipated at the beginning of the year.

讓我從第一季度的一些亮點開始。我們在第一季度賺取了 37 億美元或每股普通股 0.88 美元。我們的結果包括信用損失準備金減少對每股 0.21 美元的影響。我們的貸款基礎廣泛增長，我們的消費者和商業投資組合都從第四季度開始增長。雖然由於該季度的天數減少，淨利息收入較第四季度略有下降，但較去年同期增長了 5%。更高的利率以及我們對貸款持續增長的預期應該會推動我們在年初預期的更高的淨利息收入增長。

Mike will provide more details regarding our current view later on in the call. However, the increase in rates negatively impacted our mortgage banking business. The mortgage origination market experienced one of its largest quarterly declines that I can remember and it will take time for the industry to reduce excess capacity. Credit performance remained incredibly strong, and our net charge-off ratio declined to 14 basis points. While we have minimal direct exposure to Russia or Ukraine, we're monitoring certain industries that have the potential to be impacted by the conflict and economic sanctions, but thus far don't have concerns.

Mike 將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關我們當前觀點的更多詳細信息。然而，利率的上漲對我們的抵押銀行業務產生了負面影響。抵押貸款發起市場經歷了我記憶中最大的季度跌幅之一，該行業需要時間來減少過剩產能。信貸表現依然強勁，我們的淨沖銷率降至 14 個基點。雖然我們對俄羅斯或烏克蘭的直接接觸極少，但我們正在監控某些可能受到衝突和經濟制裁影響的行業，但到目前為止還沒有擔憂。

In addition, we returned a significant amount of capital to our shareholders in the first quarter, including repurchasing $6 billion of common stock and increasing our common stock dividend to $0.25 per share. The significant changes we've made across the company have put us in a position to increase the dividend and our work continues. The health of our consumer and businesses so far has remained strong, though we're entering a period of uncertainty. March was the eighth straight month in which inflation outpaced income with lower income consumers being most impacted by rising energy and food prices. That said, higher deposit balances and rising wages have thus far allowed consumers to weather these headwinds. We continued to see median deposit balances above pre-pandemic levels, up approximately 25% compared to 2020 but down from the highs observed in 2021.

此外，我們在第一季度向股東返還了大量資本，包括回購 60 億美元的普通股並將普通股股息提高到每股 0.25 美元。我們在整個公司所做的重大改變使我們能夠增加股息，我們的工作仍在繼續。到目前為止，我們的消費者和企業的健康狀況一直保持強勁，儘管我們正在進入一個不確定的時期。 3 月是通脹連續第八個月超過收入，低收入消費者受到能源和食品價格上漲的影響最大。也就是說，到目前為止，更高的存款餘額和不斷上漲的工資讓消費者能夠經受住這些逆風。我們繼續看到存款餘額中位數高於大流行前水平，與 2020 年相比增長了約 25%，但低於 2021 年的高點。

Consumer credit card spend remained strong, up 33% from a year ago. All spending categories were up with the highest growth in travel, entertainment, fuel and dining. After strong growth in the first quarter of 2021, driven by stimulus payments, debit card spending increased 6% in the first quarter of 2022. Discretionary spending remained strong with entertainment up 39% and travel up 29% from a year ago.

消費者信用卡消費依然強勁，同比增長 33%。所有支出類別均出現增長，其中旅遊、娛樂、燃料和餐飲增長最快。在刺激支付的推動下，在 2021 年第一季度強勁增長之後，借記卡支出在 2022 年第一季度增長了 6%。可自由支配的支出保持強勁，娛樂增長 39%，旅行增長 29%。

The increase in energy prices was reflected in a 27% increase in fuel spending. Loan demand from our commercial customers increased with growth in both commitments and loans outstanding as customers' borrowing needs are increasing to fund working capital expansion. Credit quality remained strong with net recoveries in our commercial portfolio.

能源價格上漲反映在燃料支出增加 27% 上。我們的商業客戶的貸款需求隨著承諾和未償還貸款的增長而增加，因為客戶的借貸需求增加以資助營運資金擴張。信貸質量保持強勁，我們的商業投資組合實現淨回收。

Now let me update you on progress we've made on our strategic priorities. Building an appropriate risk and control infrastructure remains our top priority, and I continue to believe that we're making significant progress.

現在讓我向您介紹我們在戰略重點方面取得的進展。建立適當的風險和控制基礎設施仍然是我們的首要任務，我仍然相信我們正在取得重大進展。

Early in the first quarter, we named Derek Flowers, our new Chief Risk Officer, following Mandy Norton's retirement announcement. Derek has extensive experience managing risk including the work he's done over the last several years of managing the build-out of Wells Fargo's risk and control framework. Derek has been with Wells Fargo for over 20 years and his familiarity with the company and its risk background make him the ideal candidate to succeed Mandy, who I'd like to thank for the tremendous progress she made in transforming the risk organization.

在第一季度初，在 Mandy Norton 宣布退休後，我們任命了新的首席風險官 Derek Flowers。 Derek 擁有豐富的風險管理經驗，包括他過去幾年在管理 Wells Fargo 風險和控制框架的擴展方面所做的工作。 Derek 已經在富國銀行工作了 20 多年，他對公司及其風險背景的熟悉使他成為接替 Mandy 的理想人選，我要感謝她在轉變風險組織方面取得的巨大進步。

We also continue to make progress in resolving legacy regulatory issues with news in January that the OCC had terminated a consent order regarding add-on products that the company sold to retail banking customers before 2015. We have much more work to do to satisfy our regulatory requirements, and we will likely have setbacks, but I'm confident in our ability to continue to close the remaining gaps over the next several years. We remain focused on improving our financial performance while investing to drive growth across our businesses.

我們還在解決遺留監管問題方面繼續取得進展，1 月份有消息稱 OCC 終止了關於該公司在 2015 年之前向零售銀行客戶出售的附加產品的同意令。我們還有很多工作要做以滿足我們的監管要求要求，我們可能會遇到挫折，但我相信我們有能力在未來幾年繼續縮小剩餘的差距。我們仍然專注於改善我們的財務業績，同時投資以推動我們業務的增長。

Providing our customers with simple, easy to use and fast digital experiences is one of our most important strategic priorities. In the first quarter, we began rolling out our new mobile banking experience for our customers in our consumer businesses, and feedback has been very positive. Digital adoption, which is critical to both delivering seamless digital experiences that our customers expect and reducing the cost to serve has continued to increase with mobile active customers up 4% from a year ago. We added approximately 500,000 new mobile active customers in the first quarter alone. We continue to invest to improve our digital capabilities with additional enhancements planned for this year.

為我們的客戶提供簡單、易於使用和快速的數字體驗是我們最重要的戰略重點之一。第一季度，我們開始為消費者業務的客戶推出新的手機銀行體驗，反饋非常積極。數字化採用對於提供客戶期望的無縫數字體驗和降低服務成本至關重要，這一點隨著移動活躍客戶比一年前增長 4% 而持續增長。僅在第一季度，我們就增加了大約 500,000 名新的移動活躍客戶。我們將繼續投資以提高我們的數字能力，併計劃在今年進行更多增強。

We're also focused on reducing friction and moving money. We've continued to invest in Zelle and made changes to expand customer usage, including increasing sending limits. These changes have helped to drive 21% growth in active send customers and a 33% increase in send volume from a year ago. We continued to enhance our credit card offerings with our partnership with Bilt Rewards and MasterCard. This first of its kind co-brand card allows members to pay rent and earn points with no transaction fees on rent payments at any apartment in the U.S.

我們還專注於減少摩擦和轉移資金。我們繼續對 Zelle 進行投資並進行更改以擴大客戶使用範圍，包括提高發送限制。這些變化有助於推動活躍發送客戶增長 21%，發送量比一年前增加 33%。通過與 Bilt Rewards 和 MasterCard 的合作，我們繼續加強我們的信用卡產品。這是首張同類聯名卡，會員可在美國任何公寓支付租金並賺取積分，無需支付任何交易費用。

In the first quarter, we selected nCino to streamline our origination, underwriting and portfolio management for our small business customers. This collaboration is expected to provide our customers with a more streamlined lending experience and builds on our existing relationship that we announced last year to accelerate our digital transformation within our Commercial Banking and Corporate Investment Banking businesses.

在第一季度，我們選擇了 nCino 來簡化我們針對小型企業客戶的發起、承銷和投資組合管理。此次合作有望為我們的客戶提供更簡化的貸款體驗，並建立在我們去年宣布的現有關係的基礎上，以加速我們在商業銀行和企業投資銀行業務中的數字化轉型。

Let me just make some summary comments before I turn it over to Mike. As we sit here today, our internal indicators continue to point towards the strength of our customers' financial position but the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will take actions necessary to reduce inflation and this will certainly reduce economic growth. In addition, the war in Ukraine adds additional risk to the downside. Wells Fargo is positioned well to provide support for our clients in a slowing economy. While we will likely see an increase in credit losses from historical lows, we should be a net beneficiary as we will also benefit from rising rates. We have a strong capital position and our lower expense base creates greater margins from which to invest.

在我把它交給邁克之前，讓我做一些總結性評論。今天我們坐在這裡，我們的內部指標繼續指向我們客戶的財務狀況，但美聯儲已經明確表示，它將採取必要的行動來降低通貨膨脹，這肯定會降低經濟增長。此外，烏克蘭戰爭增加了下行風險。富國銀行的定位很好，可以在經濟放緩的情況下為我們的客戶提供支持。雖然我們可能會看到信貸損失從歷史低點開始增加，但我們應該是淨受益者，因為我們也將從利率上升中受益。我們擁有強大的資本狀況，我們較低的費用基礎創造了更大的投資利潤。

We remain diligent in extending credit and are focusing on managing the other risk types within the company as well. We remain on target to achieve a sustainable 10% ROTCE subject to the same assumptions we've discussed in the past on a run rate basis at some point this year.

我們繼續努力提供信貸，並專注於管理公司內部的其他風險類型。根據我們過去在今年某個時候在運行率的基礎上討論過的相同假設，我們仍然朝著實現可持續 10% ROTCE 的目標前進。

We continue to focus on a broad set of stakeholders in our decisions and actions. As we have all seen, the reports and images coming out of Ukraine are deeply concerning. In order to support those most impacted, we announced $1 million in donations across 3 nonprofits in support of humanitarian aid for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees as well as services that support the U.S. military.

我們在決策和行動中繼續關注廣泛的利益相關者。正如我們大家所看到的，來自烏克蘭的報導和圖像令人深感擔憂。為了支持受影響最嚴重的人，我們宣布向 3 個非營利組織捐款 100 萬美元，以支持對烏克蘭和烏克蘭難民的人道主義援助以及支持美國軍隊的服務。

Earlier this week, we also announced plans to introduce HOPE Inside centers in select branches to increase access to financial education and guidance. Working with Operation HOPE is one important way that we can remove barriers to financial inclusion as part of our banking inclusion initiative, which is focused on helping more people who are unbanked gain access to affordable mainstream banking products.

本週早些時候，我們還宣布計劃在部分分支機構引入 HOPE Inside 中心，以增加獲得金融教育和指導的機會。與 Operation HOPE 合作是我們消除金融包容性障礙的一種重要方式，作為我們銀行包容性計劃的一部分，該計劃的重點是幫助更多沒有銀行賬戶的人獲得負擔得起的主流銀行產品。

Since the pandemic began, close to 100,000 of our employees never left the workplace. And last month, we started to welcome the rest back to the office. It's been great to be back together again, and I want to thank all of our employees as they work together to better serve our customers, our communities and each other.

自大流行開始以來，我們有近 100,000 名員工從未離開過工作場所。上個月，我們開始歡迎其他人回到辦公室。再次聚在一起真是太好了，我要感謝我們所有的員工，因為他們共同努力更好地為我們的客戶、我們的社區和彼此服務。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the quarter was $3.7 billion or $0.88 per common share, and our results included a $1.1 billion decrease in the allowance for credit losses, predominantly due to reduced uncertainty around the economic impact of COVID on our loan portfolios. Our effective income tax rate in the first quarter was approximately 16%, which included net discrete income tax benefits due to stock-based compensation. We expect our effective income tax rate for the full year to be approximately 18%, excluding any additional discrete items.

謝謝你，查理，大家早上好。本季度的淨收入為 37 億美元或每股普通股 0.88 美元，我們的業績包括信貸損失準備金減少了 11 億美元，這主要是由於 COVID 對我們貸款組合的經濟影響的不確定性減少。我們第一季度的有效所得稅率約為 16%，其中包括因股票薪酬而產生的淨離散所得稅收益。我們預計全年的有效所得稅率約為 18%，不包括任何額外的離散項目。

Our CET1 ratio declined to 10.5%, still well above our regulatory minimum of 9.1%. We highlight capital on Slide 3. The decrease in our CET1 ratio from the fourth quarter reflected a $5.1 billion reduction in cumulative other comprehensive income, driven by higher interest rates and wider agency MBS spreads, which reduced the ratio by approximately 40 basis points.

我們的 CET1 比率降至 10.5%，仍遠高於我們 9.1% 的最低監管要求。我們在幻燈片 3 上強調資本。我們的 CET1 比率較第四季度下降反映了累積其他綜合收益減少了 51 億美元，這是由更高的利率和更廣泛的機構 MBS 利差推動的，這使比率降低了約 40 個基點。

Higher risk-weighted assets driven by growth in loan balances and commitments. We adopted the standardized approach for counterparty credit risk, which had a minimal impact on total risk-weighted assets, and we continued with our strong capital returns. We repurchased $6 billion of common stock in the first quarter, bringing our total repurchases since the third quarter of 2021 to $18.3 billion, which is in line with our 2021 capital plan. While we have flexibility under the stress capital buffer framework to exceed the share repurchases contemplated in our capital plan, we will be disciplined in our approach, given the current rate volatility and currently expect to have significantly lower levels of share buybacks in the second quarter.

貸款餘額和承諾增長推動風險加權資產上升。我們採用了交易對手信用風險的標準化方法，對總風險加權資產的影響最小，我們繼續保持強勁的資本回報。我們在第一季度回購了 60 億美元的普通股，使我們自 2021 年第三季度以來的回購總額達到 183 億美元，這符合我們 2021 年的資本計劃。雖然我們在壓力資本緩衝框架下具有超過我們資本計劃中設想的股票回購的靈活性，但鑑於當前的利率波動，並且目前預計第二季度的股票回購水平將顯著降低，我們將在我們的方法上保持紀律。

Finally, we've submitted our 2022 capital plan. And as I've called out before, it's possible that our stress capital buffer could increase when the Federal Reserve publishes our official stress capital buffer in the third quarter, while our GSIB surcharge of 1.5% will remain the same for 2023.

最後，我們提交了 2022 年資本計劃。正如我之前所說，當美聯儲在第三季度發布我們的官方壓力資本緩衝時，我們的壓力資本緩衝可能會增加，而我們 1.5% 的 GSIB 附加費將在 2023 年保持不變。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 5. Our net loan charge-off ratio declined to 14 basis points in the first quarter. Commercial credit performance was strong again with $29 million of net recoveries in the first quarter driven by recoveries in energy, asset-based lending and middle market. Consumer credit performance was also strong. Credit losses were down $59 million from the fourth quarter, which included $152 million of net charge-offs related to a change in practice to fully charge off certain delinquent legacy residential mortgage loans.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的信用質量。第一季度，我們的淨貸款核銷率下降至 14 個基點。商業信貸表現再次強勁，在能源、基於資產的貸款和中間市場復甦的推動下，第一季度淨回收了 2900 萬美元。消費信貸表現也很強勁。與第四季度相比，信貸損失減少了 5900 萬美元，其中包括 1.52 億美元的淨沖銷，這與改變實踐以完全沖銷某些拖欠的遺留住宅抵押貸款有關。

The first quarter included higher auto losses and seasonally higher credit card losses. Nonperforming assets decreased $323 million or 4% from the fourth quarter. Commercial nonaccruals were down $423 million, declining again this quarter and are now below pre-pandemic levels. Consumer nonaccruals increased $82 million driven by an increase in residential mortgage nonaccruals and primarily resulting from certain customers exiting COVID-related accommodation programs. Overall, early performance of loans that have exited forbearance have exceeded our expectations.

第一季度包括較高的汽車損失和季節性較高的信用卡損失。與第四季度相比，不良資產減少了 3.23 億美元或 4%。商業非應計項目減少了 4.23 億美元，本季度再次下降，現在低於大流行前的水平。消費者非應計費用增加了 8200 萬美元，原因是住宅抵押貸款非應計費用增加，主要是由於某些客戶退出了與 COVID 相關的住宿計劃。總體而言，已退出暫緩的貸款的早期表現超出了我們的預期。

Our allowance for credit losses at the end of the first quarter reflected continued strong credit performance, less uncertainty around the economic impact of COVID, the economic recovery thus far and an outlook that reflects the increasing risks from high inflation in the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

我們在第一季度末的信貸損失準備金反映了持續強勁的信貸表現、COVID 對經濟影響的不確定性減少、迄今為止的經濟復甦以及反映俄烏衝突中高通脹風險增加的前景。

On Slide 6, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 3% from a year ago in the fourth quarter. Period-end loans grew for the third consecutive quarter and were up 6% from a year ago, with growth in both our commercial and consumer portfolios. I'll highlight the specific growth drivers when discussing business segment results.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們突出顯示了貸款和存款。第四季度平均貸款同比增長 3%。期末貸款連續第三個季度增長，同比增長 6%，我們的商業和消費組合均有所增長。在討論業務部門的結果時，我將強調具體的增長驅動因素。

Average deposits increased $70.6 billion or 5% from a year ago, with growth in our Consumer businesses and Commercial Banking, partially offset by continued declines in Corporate and Investment Banking and Corporate Treasury reflecting targeted actions to manage under the asset cap.

平均存款較一年前增加 706 億美元或 5%，我們的消費業務和商業銀行業務增長，但部分被企業和投資銀行業務以及企業資金的持續下降所抵消，這反映了在資產上限下管理的有針對性的行動。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 7. First quarter net interest income increased $413 million or 5% from a year ago and declined $41 million from the fourth quarter. The decline from the fourth quarter was driven by $178 million of lower income from EPBO and paycheck protection program loans as well as 2 fewer days in the quarter, which offset the impact of higher earning asset yields and higher securities and loan balances.

轉向幻燈片 7 的淨利息收入。第一季度淨利息收入比去年同期增加 4.13 億美元或 5%，比第四季度減少 4100 萬美元。第四季度的下降是由於 EPBO 和薪水保護計劃貸款的收入減少了 1.78 億美元，以及本季度減少了 2 天，這抵消了較高的收益資產收益率以及較高的證券和貸款餘額的影響。

Last quarter, we highlighted that net interest income for full year 2022 could potentially increase by approximately 8% driven by loan growth and other balance sheet mix changes as well as the benefit from rising rates, which was based on the forward curve at that time. Obviously, a lot has changed over the past 3 months.

上個季度，我們強調，由於貸款增長和其他資產負債表組合變化以及利率上升帶來的好處，2022 年全年的淨利息收入可能會增加約 8%，這是基於當時的遠期曲線。顯然，在過去的 3 個月裡發生了很多變化。

Loan growth has been solid and average loan balances were up 3% versus the fourth quarter and 2% at period end. If we continue to see increased demand, it's possible that average loan balances will be up in the mid-single digits from the fourth quarter 2021 to fourth quarter 2022, up from our prior outlook earlier this year of low to mid-single digits.

貸款增長穩健，平均貸款餘額較第四季度增長 3%，期末增長 2%。如果我們繼續看到需求增加，從 2021 年第四季度到 2022 年第四季度，平均貸款餘額可能會上升到中個位數，高於我們今年早些時候的低到中個位數的預測。

The rate increase is currently included in the forward rate curve would also drive stronger net interest income growth than we anticipated earlier in the year. However, it's important to note that the benefit from rising rates is not linear, and we would expect deposit betas to accelerate after the initial rate hikes and customer migration from lower-yielding to higher-yielding deposit products would also likely increase. Higher rates will also have a negative impact on mortgage volumes and potentially on market-related fees in Corporate and Investment Banking, private equity and venture capital businesses and in wealth management.

加息目前包含在遠期利率曲線中，這也將推動淨利息收入增長超過我們今年早些時候的預期。然而，需要注意的是，利率上升帶來的好處不是線性的，我們預計存款貝塔係數會在首次加息後加速，客戶從低收益向高收益存款產品的遷移也可能會增加。更高的利率還將對抵押貸款數量產生負面影響，並可能對企業和投資銀行、私募股權和風險投資業務以及財富管理中的市場相關費用產生負面影響。

Given our current expectations for higher loan growth and recent forward rate curves, net interest income for full year 2022 could be up mid-teens on a percentage basis from 2021. That said, net interest income growth will ultimately be driven by a variety of factors, including the magnitude and timing of Fed rate increases, deposit betas and loan growth.

鑑於我們目前對更高的貸款增長和近期遠期利率曲線的預期，2022 年全年的淨利息收入可能會比 2021 年增加 10%。話雖如此，淨利息收入的增長最終將受到多種因素的推動，包括美聯儲加息的幅度和時機、存款貝塔係數和貸款增長。

Now turning to expenses on Slide 8. Noninterest expense declined 1% from a year ago. We continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives and expenses also declined due to divestitures last year. The first quarter included approximately $600 million of seasonally higher personnel expenses, including payroll taxes, restricted stock expense for retirement eligible employees and 401(k) matching contributions. We also had $673 million of operating losses, which were primarily driven by higher customer remediation expense predominantly for a variety of historical matters.

現在轉向幻燈片 8 上的費用。非利息費用比一年前下降了 1%。由於去年的資產剝離，我們繼續在效率舉措方面取得進展，費用也有所下降。第一季度包括大約 6 億美元的季節性人事費用，包括工資稅、符合退休條件的員工的限制性股票費用和 401(k) 匹配繳款。我們還有 6.73 億美元的運營虧損，這主要是由於客戶修復費用增加，主要是針對各種歷史問題。

Our full year 2022 expenses are still expected to be approximately $51.5 billion. However, as we experienced this quarter, operating losses can be episodic and hard to predict, and we will continue to update you on our expense expectations throughout the year.

我們預計 2022 年全年的開支仍約為 515 億美元。然而，正如我們在本季度所經歷的那樣，經營虧損可能是偶發的，難以預測，我們將繼續向您更新我們全年的費用預期。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 9. Consumer and Small Business Banking revenue increased 11% from a year ago, primarily due to higher deposit balances, higher deposit-related fees, primarily reflecting lower fee waivers and an increase in debit card transactions.

轉向我們的運營部門，從幻燈片 9 上的個人銀行和貸款開始。個人和小型企業銀行業務收入同比增長 11%，主要是由於存款餘額增加、存款相關費用增加，主要反映了費用減免減少和借記卡交易量增加。

We continue to reduce the underlying cost to run the business and serve customers. Customers have continued to migrate to digital channels and correspondingly teller transactions are down 45% from pre-pandemic levels. Over the same period, we've decreased our number of branches by 12% and branch staffing by approximately 30%, and we have more opportunities to improve our efficiency while we continue to make enhancements to better serve customers.

我們繼續降低運營業務和服務客戶的基本成本。客戶繼續遷移到數字渠道，相應的櫃員交易量比大流行前的水平下降了 45%。同期，我們的分行數量減少了 12%，分行人員減少了約 30%，我們有更多機會提高效率，同時我們繼續改進以更好地為客戶服務。

Earlier this year, we announced changes we are making to help our customers avoid overdraft fees. We began to implement some of these new policies and we'll be rolling out the rest of the changes this year. We eliminated fees for nonsufficient funds and overdraft protection transactions in early March. So these changes didn't have a meaningful impact on the first quarter results. We still expect the annual decline in these fees to be approximately $700 million. However, as we highlighted last quarter, this is an annualized estimate and the reduction may be partially offset by higher levels of activity, and we will observe how customers respond to the new features that will be introduced in the latter part of the year.

今年早些時候，我們宣布了我們正在做出的改變，以幫助我們的客戶避免透支費用。我們開始實施其中一些新政策，並將在今年推出其餘的變化。我們在 3 月初取消了資金不足和透支保護交易的費用。因此，這些變化對第一季度的業績沒有產生有意義的影響。我們仍然預計這些費用的年度下降幅度約為 7 億美元。然而，正如我們在上個季度強調的那樣，這是一個年度估計，減少可能會被更高水平的活動部分抵消，我們將觀察客戶對今年下半年推出的新功能的反應。

Home lending revenue declined 33% from a year ago and 19% from the fourth quarter, driven by lower mortgage originations and [impressed] margins given the higher rate environment and competitive pricing in response to excess capacity in the industry.

房貸收入較上年同期下降 33%，較第四季度下降 19%，原因是由於較高的利率環境和應對行業產能過剩的競爭性定價，抵押貸款發放量和利潤率下降。

Mortgage rates increased 156 basis points in the first quarter and are above rate levels observed for the most of the last -- for most of the last decade. Reflecting this environment, we expect second quarter originations and margins to remain under pressure and mortgage banking revenue to continue to decline. We've started to reduce expenses in response to the decline in volume and expect expenses will continue to decline throughout the year as excess capacity is removed and aligned to lower business activity.

第一季度抵押貸款利率增加了 156 個基點，高於過去十年大部分時間觀察到的利率水平。反映這種環境，我們預計第二季度的發起和利潤率將繼續承壓，抵押銀行業務收入將繼續下降。我們已經開始減少開支以應對數量的下降，並預計隨著產能過剩的消除並與較低的業務活動保持一致，全年開支將繼續下降。

Credit card revenue was up 6% from a year ago, driven by higher loan balances and point-of-sale volumes. Auto revenue increased 10% and personal lending was up 2% from a year ago, primarily due to higher loan balances.

由於貸款餘額和銷售點數量增加，信用卡收入比一年前增長了 6%。汽車收入增長 10%，個人貸款同比增長 2%，主要是由於貸款餘額增加。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 10. Our mortgage originations declined 21% from the fourth quarter. We believe the mortgage market experienced its largest quarterly decline since 2003, primarily due to lower refinance activity in response to higher mortgage rates. Home lending loan balances grew modestly from the fourth quarter, driven by the third consecutive quarter of growth in our nonconforming portfolio, which more than offset declines in loans purchased from securitization pools or EPBOs.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。我們的抵押貸款發放量比第四季度下降了 21%。我們認為抵押貸款市場經歷了自 2003 年以來的最大季度跌幅，主要是由於抵押貸款利率上升導致再融資活動減少。在我們的不合格投資組合連續第三個季度增長的推動下，住房貸款餘額從第四季度開始溫和增長，這遠遠抵消了從證券化池或 EPBO 購買的貸款的下降。

Turning to auto. Origination volume increased 4% from a year ago, but was down 22% from fourth quarter due to credit tightening in higher risk segments and increased price competition as interest rates rose, and we targeted solid returns for new originations.

轉向自動。由於高風險領域的信貸收緊以及利率上升導致的價格競爭加劇，發起量較去年同期增長 4%，但較第四季度下降 22%，我們的目標是新發起的穩健回報。

Turning to debit card. Transactions declined 7% from the fourth quarter due to seasonality and were up 3% from a year ago with double-digit growth in travel and entertainment.

轉向借記卡。由於季節性因素，交易量較第四季度下降 7%，較上年同期增長 3%，旅遊和娛樂業務實現兩位數增長。

Credit card point-of-sale purchase volume continued to be strong, it was up 33% from a year ago, but down 5% from the fourth quarter due to seasonality. While payment rates remain elevated, balances grew 14% from a year ago due to strong purchase volume and the launch of new products. New credit card accounts increased over 80% from a year ago, and we continue to be pleased by the quality of the accounts we're attracting.

信用卡 POS 購買量繼續強勁，同比增長 33%，但由於季節性因素，較第四季度下降 5%。雖然支付率仍然很高，但由於購買量強勁和新產品的推出，餘額比一年前增長了 14%。新的信用卡賬戶比一年前增加了 80% 以上，我們繼續對我們吸引的賬戶質量感到滿意。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 11. Middle Market Banking revenue increased 8% from a year ago, driven by higher deposit and loan balances as well as the impact of higher interest rates. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue increased 17% from a year ago, driven by higher loan balances, stronger net gains from equity securities and higher revenue from renewable energy investments.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的商業銀行業績。由於存貸款餘額增加以及利率上升的影響，中間市場銀行業務收入同比增長 8%。受貸款餘額增加、股本證券淨收益增加以及可再生能源投資收入增加的推動，基於資產的貸款和租賃收入同比增長 17%。

Noninterest expense declined 6% from a year ago, primarily driven by lower personnel and occupancy expense due to efficiency initiatives and lower lease expense. After declining during the first half of last year, average loan balances have grown for 3 consecutive quarters and were up 6% from a year ago. Revolver utilization rates have increased but are still well below historical levels.

非利息費用比一年前下降了 6%，主要是由於效率舉措和租賃費用降低導致人員和占用費用減少。繼去年上半年下降後，平均貸款餘額連續三個季度增長，同比增長6%。左輪手槍使用率有所增加，但仍遠低於歷史水平。

Loan demand has been driven by larger clients who are increasing borrowing due to the impact of inflation on material and transportation costs as well as to support inventory growth. We're also seeing new demand from some clients who are catching up from underinvestment in projects and capital expenditures over the past couple of years.

由於通貨膨脹對材料和運輸成本的影響以及支持庫存增長，大客戶正在增加借貸，從而推動了貸款需求。我們還看到一些客戶的新需求正在迎頭趕上過去幾年對項目和資本支出的投資不足。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 12. Banking revenue increased 4% from a year ago, primarily driven by higher loan balances and improved treasury management results. Average loan balances were up 18% from a year ago with increased demand across most industries driven primarily by capital expenditures and growing working capital needs. Commercial real estate revenue grew 9% from a year ago, driven by the higher loan balances and higher revenue in our low-income housing business. Average loan balances were up 17% from a year ago, and originations in the first quarter outpaced volumes from a year ago and loan pipelines continue to be strong.

在幻燈片 12 上轉向企業和投資銀行業務。銀行業務收入同比增長 4%，主要是由於貸款餘額增加和資金管理結果改善。平均貸款餘額比一年前增長了 18%，主要受資本支出和不斷增長的營運資金需求推動，大多數行業的需求增加。受貸款餘額增加和低收入住房業務收入增加的推動，商業房地產收入同比增長 9%。平均貸款餘額比一年前增長了 17%，第一季度的發放量超過了一年前的數量，貸款渠道繼續強勁。

Markets revenue was down 18% from a year ago, primarily due to lower trading activity in residential mortgage-backed securities and high-yield products. Average deposits in corporate investment banking were down $25.3 billion or 13% from a year ago, driven by continued actions to manage into the asset cap.

市場收入同比下降 18%，主要是由於住宅抵押貸款支持證券和高收益產品的交易活動減少。企業投資銀行業務的平均存款較上年同期減少 253 億美元或 13%，主要是由於持續採取措施控制資產上限。

On Slide 13, Wealth and investment management revenue grew 6% from a year ago, driven by higher asset-based fees on higher market valuations and higher net interest income from the impact of higher interest rates as well as higher deposit and loan balances. As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter. So first quarter results reflected market valuations as of Jan 1, and second quarter results will reflect the lower market valuations as of April 1. The 5% increase in expenses from a year ago was primarily driven by higher revenue-related compensation, which was more than offset by higher revenue. Average deposits were up 7% from a year ago and average loans increased 5% from a year ago, driven by continued momentum in securities-based lending.

在幻燈片 13 上，財富和投資管理收入比一年前增長了 6%，這是由於更高的市場估值和更高的利率以及更高的存款和貸款餘額的影響帶來的更高的淨利息收入導致的基於資產的費用增加。提醒一下，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產都是在本季度初定價的。因此，第一季度業績反映了截至 1 月 1 日的市場估值，而第二季度業績將反映截至 4 月 1 日較低的市場估值。費用較上年同期增長 5% 主要是由於與收入相關的薪酬增加，這更多的是而不是被更高的收入所抵消。受證券貸款持續增長的推動，平均存款同比增長 7%，平均貸款同比增長 5%。

Slide 14 highlights our corporate results, both revenue and expenses declined from a year ago, driven by the sale of our student loan portfolio and divestitures of our Corporate Trust Services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management. These businesses contributed $791 million of revenue in the first quarter of 2021, including the gain on sale of our student loan portfolio and they accounted for approximately $400 million of the decline in expenses compared with a year ago, including the goodwill write-down on the sale of our student loan portfolio.

幻燈片 14 突出顯示了我們的公司業績，收入和支出均比一年前下降，這是由於我們出售學生貸款組合以及剝離我們的企業信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理。這些業務在 2021 年第一季度貢獻了 7.91 億美元的收入，包括出售我們的學生貸款組合的收益，與一年前相比，它們佔費用下降的約 4 億美元，包括商譽減記出售我們的學生貸款組合。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Mike, I appreciate the commentary on reiterating the expense guidance for the full year. I was just hoping, given sort of the lumpiness between the seasonality and the account expenses and then some of the operating losses. If you could maybe give a little bit more of a fine point on the trajectory. In other words, how much could we -- or should we expect things to come down in the second quarter? And then is it going to be just a progressive decline through the end of the year? Or how will things ebb and flow in your mind?

邁克，我很欣賞關於重申全年費用指導的評論。我只是希望，考慮到季節性和賬戶費用之間的波動，然後是一些經營虧損。如果你可以在軌跡上給出更多的細節。換句話說，我們可以 - 或者我們應該預期第二季度的情況會下降多少？然後到年底會不會只是逐漸下降？或者事情將如何在你的腦海中消退？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Scott. As I said in the remarks, we had about $600 million of seasonal expenses in there related to 401(k) and stock comp and all the associated stuff in the first quarter. So that starts to fall away. And then obviously, the other piece in there that I mentioned was operating losses, and that can be a little lumpy as you go throughout the year. But when you sort of take a step back, as you saw last year as well, as we execute our efficiency initiatives, you generally don't get all those benefits starting day 1. And so you'll continue to get more and more impact throughout the year. So you should expect the expense trajectory to be down as we go throughout the year. Now every quarter may not be down in a linear way, but nonetheless, you'll see a trend downward.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，斯科特。正如我在評論中所說，我們在第一季度有大約 6 億美元的季節性支出與 401(k) 和股票補償以及所有相關的東西有關。所以它開始消失。然後很明顯，我提到的另一部分是經營虧損，隨著你全年的發展，這可能有點混亂。但是，當您退後一步時，正如您在去年看到的那樣，當我們執行我們的效率計劃時，您通常不會從第一天開始就獲得所有這些好處。因此，您將繼續獲得越來越大的影響全年。因此，隨著我們全年的發展，您應該預計費用軌跡會下降。現在每個季度可能不會以線性方式下降，但儘管如此，你會看到下降的趨勢。

And just to reinforce what we said in the remarks, we did -- we still believe the $51.5 billion for the full year is achievable despite the fact that we had the higher operating losses in the quarter. And then I'll just reiterate the other piece of guidance we gave on NII. We do think -- as we said in January, we thought NII would be up about 8%. So we're almost doubling that to kind of the mid-teens as we look throughout the year, both given -- due to the loan growth we've seen and as well as the substantial move in rates.

為了加強我們在評論中所說的話，我們確實做到了——儘管我們在本季度的經營虧損較高，但我們仍然相信全年 515 億美元是可以實現的。然後我將重申我們在 NII 上提供的另一條指導。我們確實認為——正如我們在一月份所說的那樣，我們認為 NII 將上漲約 8%。因此，由於我們看到的貸款增長以及利率的大幅變動，我們全年都將這一數字翻了一番，達到了十幾歲的水平。

Perfect. And then just maybe to follow up. I think you guys talked in the past about an expectation for expenses to decline next year as well. Just given how lasting some of these inflationary pressures seem to be, do you see any risk to that outlook of another down year in costs next year?

完美的。然後也許只是跟進。我認為你們過去曾談到對明年費用下降的預期。考慮到這些通脹壓力的持續時間有多長，您認為明年成本再次下降的前景是否存在風險？

It's Charlie. I would say a couple of things. I think it's still the way we think about the way we want to plan for the year, for sure, as we sit here today. On inflationary pressures, I would say, and it's still early and still thinking that things will still continue to evolve. But our own experience here is that the wage pressures that we've seen today are not as great as they were in the fourth quarter of last year. So they still exist, but they do seem to be slowing. And obviously, the Fed is going to, as I said, going to do everything they can to bring that down.

是查理。我想說幾件事。我認為這仍然是我們思考今年計劃的方式，當然，當我們今天坐在這裡時。關於通脹壓力，我會說，現在還為時過早，仍然認為事情仍將繼續發展。但我們自己的經驗是，我們今天看到的工資壓力不像去年第四季度那麼大。所以它們仍然存在，但它們似乎正在放緩。顯然，正如我所說，美聯儲將盡其所能降低這一點。

And so as we sit here today, by the time we get to the next year, I think we'll be in a very, very different position relative to where inflation is. And so we're still very focused on -- use the word efficiency, but we're really focused on running the place better. And that's what these expense reductions actually result in.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，到明年時，我認為相對於通貨膨脹，我們將處於非常非常不同的位置。所以我們仍然非常關注——使用效率這個詞，但我們真的專注於更好地運營這個地方。這就是這些費用減少的實際結果。

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So wanted to just start off with a question on NII and excess liquidity deployment. Specifically, I was hoping you could speak to your appetite to deploy some of the excess liquidity that you guys still retain. And where reinvestment yields are currently just given spread widening in MBS in particular? And what securities you might look to purchase given some of the sensitivities on the duration side?

所以想從關於 NII 和過剩流動性部署的問題開始。具體來說，我希望你能說出你的意願來部署你們仍然保留的一些過剩流動性。尤其是在 MBS 中，再投資收益率目前只是在哪些地方擴大了利差？考慮到久期方面的一些敏感性，您可能希望購買哪些證券？

Yes. Thanks, Steve. It's Mike. Look, first, when it comes to deploying liquidity, it's going to be loans first, right? So if you think about the waterfall. And so as we see more loan growth, that's where it's going to go first. And obviously, that's the preferred path anyway. And then based on what we see there, we will decide if we're going to grow the securities portfolio throughout the year. I would say our -- the guidance we gave for NII does not assume that we grow the portfolio in any substantial way. And so that will -- we'll have to see how that goes based on what we see from a loan growth perspective. And then you can see where yields are across both treasuries and MBS, which are the 2 primary asset classes we have in the portfolio. And I think, obviously, we're now investing at higher rates than we've seen certainly in a while, and that's additive as we go forward.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。是邁克。看，首先，在部署流動性方面，首先是貸款，對嗎？因此，如果您考慮瀑布。因此，當我們看到更多的貸款增長時，這就是它首先要去的地方。顯然，無論如何，這是首選路徑。然後根據我們在那裡看到的情況，我們將決定是否要在全年增加證券投資組合。我想說我們的 - 我們為 NII 提供的指導並不假設我們以任何實質性的方式擴大投資組合。所以這將 - 我們必鬚根據我們從貸款增長的角度看到的情況來看看情況如何。然後你可以看到國債和 MBS 的收益率在哪裡，這是我們投資組合中的兩個主要資產類別。而且我認為，顯然，我們現在的投資速度比我們一段時間以來肯定看到的要高，而且隨著我們的前進，這是附加的。

Got it. And just one follow-up relating to deposit beta specifically, certainly a big area of focus given the more aggressive pace of Fed tightening as well as [QT], I was hoping you can just speak to your relative stickiness of your deposit base versus last cycle given the liability optimization, you guys have been executing under the asset cap for a number of years now. And is there a credible case in your view that deposit betas could in fact be lower this cycle just given some of that favorable deposit remixing?

知道了。特別是與存款貝塔相關的一個後續行動，鑑於美聯儲收緊步伐更加激進以及 [QT]，這肯定是一個很大的關注領域，我希望你能談談你的存款基礎與上次相比的相對粘性考慮到負債優化的周期，你們已經在資產上限下執行多年了。在您看來，僅考慮到一些有利的存款重新混合，存款貝塔值實際上可能會降低這個週期是否有可信的案例？

Yes. No, I think you highlighted the right point. As you look at what we've had to do over the last couple of years, manage on the asset cap, we've really pushed away some of our most interest rate-sensitive deposits during that time. And so we've seen the least rate-sensitive deposits on the retail side and the consumer side grow as a percentage of the overall deposit base. And so that's definitely going to help lower the average betas that we'll see relative to what we saw in the last cycle.

是的。不，我認為你強調了正確的觀點。當您查看過去幾年我們必須做的事情時，管理資產上限時，我們確實在此期間推出了一些對利率最敏感的存款。因此，我們看到零售端和消費者端對利率最不敏感的存款佔整體存款基數的百分比增長。因此，相對於我們在上一個週期中看到的情況，這肯定會有助於降低我們將看到的平均 beta。

I think our expectations as you sort of think about the different slices of the deposit base haven't really changed much over the last couple of months. I think as we look at the first 100 basis points, we don't think deposit rates are going to move that much, which is pretty similar to what we saw last go around. And then I think on the consumer side, you'll have slower betas and you'll have higher betas on the wholesale side. But likely, given our position, we'll lag a little bit on pricing given the asset cap and what we've got to do to continue to manage that.

我認為在過去幾個月中，當您考慮存款基礎的不同部分時，我們的期望並沒有太大變化。我認為，當我們查看前 100 個基點時，我們認為存款利率不會波動太大，這與我們上次看到的情況非常相似。然後我認為在消費者方面，你會有較慢的貝塔，而在批發方面你會有更高的貝塔。但是，考慮到我們的立場，考慮到資產上限以及我們必須做些什麼來繼續管理它，我們可能會在定價方面稍有滯後。

And this is Charles. The only thing I would add is that I think a lot of it also depends on what the other alternatives for folks that are out there certainly on the consumer side. And when you look at the environment that we're heading into and the volatility that we'll see, I just -- I think that's a very different kind of environment than if you're in a very stable market and rates are just moving up relatively slowly. So I think it is different in that respect as well.

這是查爾斯。我唯一要補充的是，我認為這在很大程度上還取決於消費者方面的其他選擇。當你看到我們正在進入的環境和我們將看到的波動時，我只是 - 我認為這是一個非常不同的環境，而不是你處於一個非常穩定的市場並且利率只是在變動上升相對緩慢。所以我認為在這方面也是不同的。

All right. That's great. If I could just squeeze in one more quick one. Would just be remiss if I didn't ask about -- given some of the fee income commentary that you guys have highlighted, particularly some of the headwinds on both mortgage as well as wealth management, how we should be thinking about the right jumping off point for 2Q fee income, just given a lot of volatility in a few of those line items in the quarter?

好的。那太棒了。如果我能再快一點擠進去。如果我不問的話，那就是疏忽了——鑑於你們強調的一些費用收入評論，特別是抵押貸款和財富管理方面的一些不利因素，我們應該如何考慮正確的跳躍考慮到本季度其中一些項目的波動性很大，第二季度的費用收入是多少？

Yes. I'll give you a couple of points there. So as you think about the advisory assets, if you look at what's happened in both the fixed income and equity markets in terms of the valuation at the 3/31 being down, I think, roughly 5% or 6% is probably not a bad place to start the modeling on advisory assets, given the fact that a large chunk of them are built in advance based on that value.

是的。我會給你幾點。因此，當您考慮諮詢資產時，如果您從 3/31 估值下降的角度來看固定收益市場和股票市場的情況，我認為大約 5% 或 6% 可能還不錯開始對諮詢資產進行建模的地方，因為其中很大一部分是基於該價值預先構建的。

On the mortgage business, we will see a step down given the pretty abrupt slowdown in the refinance market, in particular. We still expect to have decent volumes in the purchase market, but spreads will definitely -- or gain on sale margins will definitely be impacted given there's still a lot of excess capacity in the system.

在抵押貸款業務方面，尤其是再融資市場突然放緩，我們將看到一個下降。我們仍然希望在採購市場上有不錯的交易量，但價差肯定會——或者鑑於系統中仍有大量過剩產能，銷售利潤率的收益肯定會受到影響。

Now I would just keep that in context of the backdrop that we laid out in terms of the growth and NII as you look through the rest of the year. So even if you start to see a little bit of pressure on those line items, the growth in NII will position us pretty well throughout the rest of the year.

現在，我將把它放在我們在增長和 NII 方面列出的背景下，您可以看看今年剩下的時間。因此，即使您開始看到這些項目有一點壓力，NII 的增長也將使我們在今年餘下的時間里處於有利地位。

Yes. And this is Charlie. And the only -- I would just add to that. I think when you think about how we are -- and I kind of said this in the quote and in my remarks, the way we're positioned going into an environment like this is we feel very positive about where we stand. And mortgage banking income is going to decline because rates are going up, and we're going to make much more on the increase in rates than we will on the decline in mortgage banking income. We're continuing to focus on reducing expenses. Credit is still exceptionally good and certainly will be into the next quarter based on everything that we see and possibly beyond, even though at one point, they will go up. And so while we're not sure what the overall economic environment will look like, that doesn't change our point of view on the fact that we're well positioned for.

是的。這是查理。唯一的——我想補充一下。我認為，當您考慮我們的狀況時-我在引述和講話中都說過這一點，我們進入這樣的環境的方式是，我們對自己的立場感到非常積極。由於利率上升，抵押銀行收入將下降，我們將在利率上升中獲得比抵押銀行收入下降更多的收益。我們將繼續專注於減少開支。信貸仍然非常好，根據我們所看到的甚至可能超出的一切，肯定會進入下一季度，即使在某一時刻，它們會上升。因此，雖然我們不確定整體經濟環境會是什麼樣子，但這並不會改變我們對我們處於有利地位這一事實的看法。

Just a reminder, I said in my script, Steve, too, on the impact of the reduction in nonsufficient fund balance fees and some of the overdraft changes we made, you'll start to see the impact of that in the second quarter as well.

提醒一下，我在腳本中也說過，史蒂夫，關於減少不足的基金餘額費用和我們所做的一些透支更改的影響，你也會在第二季度開始看到它的影響.

The next question comes from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the expense side, I appreciate you helping us out with the $51.5 billion in terms of the reiteration of the guide. On the operating loss side, how do you feel about that $1.3 billion expectation given the pressure on the number in the quarter? And then separately, I guess, also on the cost savings, I wanted to see how you're feeling about the $3.3 billion in gross saves and $1.6 billion net. Any changes to that expectation?

在費用方面，我感謝您在重申指南方面幫助我們解決了 515 億美元。在經營虧損方面，鑑於本季度的數字壓力，您對 13 億美元的預期有何看法？然後，我想，另外，關於成本節省，我想看看你對 33 億美元的總節省和 16 億美元的淨節省有何感受。這種期望有什麼變化嗎？

So I'll just -- I'll take the first part and Mike, you maybe take the second. On the first one, the things that we saw in the first quarter are very specific to remediations. And so what we saw in the first quarter really has nothing to do with what we'll see in the next series of quarters. And so those kind of stand on their own and it's not something that gets built on from there.

所以我會 - 我會參加第一部分，邁克，你可能會參加第二部分。在第一個方面，我們在第一季度看到的事情是非常具體的補救措施。因此，我們在第一季度看到的情況與我們將在接下來的幾個季度中看到的情況毫無關係。所以這些都是獨立的，不是從那裡建立起來的。

Yes. And as you look at the efficiency, and I think hopefully, this was implied in what we -- the guidance we gave, but we're executing well on the efficiency program that we've got. And as I said a number of times over the last couple of quarters, it's not a -- it's not a static program like this is something that we're embedding in the DNA of how we run the place and it continues to evolve, and we feel good about executing on that.

是的。當您查看效率時，我希望這已隱含在我們提供的指導中，但我們在現有的效率計劃上執行良好。正如我在過去幾個季度中多次說過的那樣，這不是一個 - 這不是一個靜態程序，我們正在嵌入我們如何運營這個地方的 DNA 中，它會繼續發展，並且我們對此感到滿意。

Okay. And then on the capital side, I know the CET1 decline of 90 basis points this quarter. You also mentioned the SCB surcharge could increase. You did flag a lower levels of buyback expected for the second quarter. Maybe can you talk about your thoughts on capital return beyond the second quarter, just given how things are shaping up and your earnings outlook. I just wonder if you can get updated thoughts there.

好的。然後在資本方面，我知道本季度 CET1 下降了 90 個基點。您還提到 SCB 附加費可能會增加。您確實標記了第二季度預期的較低水平的回購。也許你能談談你對第二季度以後資本回報的看法，只是考慮到事情的發展情況和你的盈利前景。我只是想知道你是否可以在那裡獲得更新的想法。

Yes. I'll start, Mike, and then you can chime in. I think what we're just trying to do is just -- it's -- we do have the reality of the impact on OCI during the quarter. And so you see where CET1 is. Our quarter -- our dividend is about $1 billion a quarter or so. So we do have plenty of room inside there for any other further changes to OCI or the ability for us to grow RWA, which we want to do as loan growth continues to show the demand that we're seeing. And so I think just where we are specifically in the second quarter will depend on where rates come out. And then beyond that, we'll still -- obviously, we're going through CCAR, but we still should have capacity to figure out what we want to do with the excess capital that the company generates.

是的。我會開始，邁克，然後你可以插話。我認為我們只是試圖做的只是 - 它是 - 我們確實了解本季度對 OCI 的影響。所以你看到CET1在哪裡。我們的季度——我們的股息約為每季度 10 億美元左右。因此，我們確實有足夠的空間來進一步改變 OCI 或增加 RWA 的能力，隨著貸款增長繼續顯示我們所看到的需求，我們希望這樣做。所以我認為我們在第二季度的具體情況將取決於利率的出現。然後除此之外，我們仍然 - 顯然，我們正在經歷 CCAR，但我們仍然應該有能力弄清楚我們想用公司產生的多餘資本做什麼。

Yes. And as earnings capacity grows, as NII grows and we go through the year and we execute on our efficiency program, there's -- and we're still operating under the asset cap. You -- there's -- I think you'll see us be prudent, but we've got plenty of flexibility as we look through the rest of the year.

是的。隨著盈利能力的增長，隨著 NII 的增長以及我們度過這一年並執行我們的效率計劃，我們仍然在資產上限下運營。你 - 有 - 我想你會看到我們是謹慎的，但我們在今年剩下的時間裡有足夠的靈活性。

The next question comes from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Great. Just a couple of follow-ups on the cost side. So Mike, the business sales from last year and kind of the stranded costs and the transition agreements, can you walk us through again how much of that was in the first quarter? And then how does that kind of decline? And is that also built into your full year expectation for the cost numbers?

偉大的。只是成本方面的一些後續行動。那麼邁克，去年的業務銷售額以及擱淺的成本和過渡協議，你能再告訴我們第一季度有多少嗎？那麼這種下降是如何下降的呢？這是否也包含在您對成本數字的全年預期中？

Yes. So what we said, Ken, as you look at the first quarter, is about $400 million of expenses fell away in the quarter as the business exited. And the remainder -- and so about $300 million of that was from the ongoing run rate of the businesses, about $100 million was a charge we took last year for the student loan business. But -- and the remainder falls either under the TSAs, which are in place today and likely run most of the year, if not into early next year.

是的。所以我們所說的，肯，當你看第一季度時，隨著業務的退出，本季度約有 4 億美元的開支減少了。其餘的 - 其中大約 3 億美元來自企業的持續運營率，大約 1 億美元是我們去年為學生貸款業務收取的費用。但是 - 其餘部分屬於 TSAs，它們現在已經到位，並且可能在今年的大部分時間裡運行，如果不是到明年年初的話。

But remember, there's revenue on the other side of that. And then you have the stranded costs. So the numbers we laid out at the end of the fourth quarter last year are -- haven't changed. And as the TSAs roll off, we'll do our best to highlight that if it's meaningful. And then we're going to continue to work on the stranded costs and get them out, but that will take a little bit of time as we said last quarter.

但請記住，另一方面還有收入。然後你有擱淺的成本。因此，我們在去年第四季度末列出的數字 - 沒有改變。隨著 TSA 的推出，我們將盡最大努力強調它是否有意義。然後我們將繼續研究擱淺成本並將其消除，但這將需要一點時間，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣。

Right. Okay. And then just 2 little things on net interest income. You did mention that you had the EPBO sales this quarter and I think related lower net interest income plus you did show the decline in [premium AM]. I'm wondering if you can just help us understand how much the EPBO sales took out of NII? And are you still expecting those to go out through the year? And then how do you expect premium AM to trend from here?

對。好的。然後是淨利息收入的兩件小事。您確實提到本季度有 EPBO 銷售，我認為相關的淨利息收入較低，而且您確實顯示了 [premium AM] 的下降。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解 EPBO 的銷售額從 NII 中扣除了多少？你還期待那些會在這一年裡消失嗎？那麼，您如何期待優質 AM 的發展趨勢？

Yes. And the combo of PPP loans and EPBOs came down sequentially or linked quarter about $178 million, and that was the impact on revenue there on NII. And so -- and we'll reiterate that in the Q when it comes out. As you look at [premium AM] or for mortgage backed, you can look at the slide for reference when you have time. I know it's a busy day today, but it came down roughly a little over $100 million, $110 million, $15 million decline in the quarter. And that will continue to decline as prepay slow throughout the year. So it's come down quite a bit since where we were last year.

是的。 PPP 貸款和 EPBO 的組合環比下降約 1.78 億美元，這就是對 NII 收入的影響。所以 - 我們將在 Q 發佈時重申這一點。當您查看 [premium AM] 或抵押貸款支持時，您可以在有時間時查看幻燈片以供參考。我知道今天是忙碌的一天，但本季度下降了大約 1 億美元、1.1 億美元、1500 萬美元。隨著全年預付款的放緩，這將繼續下降。因此，自去年以來，它已經下降了很多。

The next question comes from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Just on the fee income front, you made a couple of comments already about the core fee lines. What about some of the more volatile lines on the capital markets side? I think the venture capital came in a little bit better than expected in a tough market this quarter. What should we be thinking about in terms of investment banking, trading and maybe the Norwest Venture line?

就費用收入而言，您已經對核心費用線發表了一些評論。資本市場方面的一些波動較大的線呢？我認為在本季度艱難的市場中，風險投資的表現略好於預期。在投資銀行、交易以及 Norwest Venture 業務方面，我們應該考慮什麼？

Yes. As you know, predicting investment banking fees and market fees is fraught with lots of issues. But I think, look, the -- it's clear that on the investment banking side, some of the capital markets, particularly on the equity side, has slowed quite a bit this year given some of the volatility we've seen. Our pipeline really hasn't change much. It's still pretty strong from where we stand coming into the quarter. And so some of that realization of that pipeline is just somewhat market-dependent and dependent on some deals, timing of some of the deals closing. So we'll see.

是的。如您所知，預測投資銀行費用和市場費用充滿了很多問題。但我認為，看，很明顯，鑑於我們已經看到的一些波動，在投資銀行方面，一些資本市場，特別是在股票方面，今年已經放緩了很多。我們的管道確實沒有太大變化。從我們進入本季度的情況來看，它仍然非常強勁。因此，該管道的一些實現只是在某種程度上依賴於市場，並依賴於一些交易，一些交易完成的時間。所以我們拭目以待。

The markets revenue is somewhat dependent on the volatility that we see and the demand we see. And so I think as others have gone through this, we'll benefit from some of that as we go through it. But that's hard to predict exactly where we'll end up. And then on Norwest Venture, if you go back a number of years and you look at there's some number -- there's some like stability to that line when you look at over the last 3 or 4 years. I think when you look at some of what happened this quarter, we did have a bunch of realized, like business being sold or going public in 1 or 2 cases of some of the investments.

市場收入在一定程度上取決於我們看到的波動性和我們看到的需求。所以我認為，當其他人經歷過這一切時，我們會在經歷它的過程中從中受益。但這很難準確預測我們最終會在哪裡結束。然後在 Norwest Venture 上，如果你回溯幾年，你會看到一些數字——當你看過去 3 或 4 年時，這條線有一些類似的穩定性。我認為，當您查看本季度發生的一些事情時，我們確實有很多實現，例如在 1 或 2 個投資案例中出售業務或上市。

And so that was really good to see that, that's still continuing despite some of the market volatility. And I think we'll see how it goes. I think we won't -- it's hard to imagine we'll see some of the peaks that we saw last year in that revenue line item. But I do expect we'll continue to see some good performance across those businesses.

所以看到這一點真的很好，儘管市場出現了一些波動，但這種情況仍在繼續。我想我們會看到它的進展。我認為我們不會 - 很難想像我們會看到去年在該收入項目中看到的一些峰值。但我確實希望我們將繼續在這些業務中看到一些良好的表現。

Okay. And also on the NII, any comments you could make about your expectations for the cadence of the NII improvement throughout the year and maybe a little bit of what you're baking in on [premium AM] and maybe how much benefit you get from -- on a spot basis, like a hike of 25 or 50 bps. Just any framework there?

好的。同樣在 NII 上，您可以就您對全年 NII 改進節奏的期望發表任何評論，以及您在 [premium AM] 上所做的一些事情以及您從中獲得多少收益 - - 以現貨為基礎，例如加息 25 或 50 個基點。那裡有任何框架嗎？

Yes. No. So a lot of it's going to be dependent on how fast the Fed moves. And as you know, when the Fed moves, the impact of that is immediate, you start realizing that the day after. And so obviously, the expectations there have changed quite a bit. So that will be the case. I think in the Q, we give you the shock numbers on 100 basis point moves. And those are pretty close to what you should expect for the first few rate rises in terms of the impact. And again, it's pretty immediate for the most of it.

是的。不，所以很大程度上取決於美聯儲行動的速度。如您所知，當美聯儲采取行動時，其影響是立竿見影的，您會在第二天開始意識到這一點。很明顯，那裡的期望發生了很大變化。所以會是這樣。我認為在 Q 中，我們會為您提供 100 個基點波動的衝擊數字。就影響而言，這些與您對前幾次加息的預期非常接近。再一次，它在大多數情況下都是非常直接的。

And the [premium AM], Mike, you assume that, that comes down throughout the year?

而 [premium AM]，邁克，你認為，全年都會下降？

Yes. It has to, yes, I mean, absolutely. It will continue to come down as we see rates go up and prepay slow, sorry about that. But yes, I think you'll start to see that come down. Will it -- I think it will be -- it's a little bit dependent upon again how things progress, but it's not unreasonable to think as we look at the next quarter that it's somewhere in the ballpark of what we saw from -- on a linked quarter basis this quarter.

是的。它必須，是的，我的意思是，絕對。隨著我們看到利率上升並且預付緩慢，它將繼續下降，對此感到抱歉。但是，是的，我想你會開始看到它下降。它會 - 我認為它會 - 它有點依賴於事情的進展情況，但是當我們看下一個季度時，認為它與我們所看到的差不多 - 在一個以本季度掛鉤的季度為基礎。

Got it. I guess I was wondering, did you improve the assumptions for that? Is that part of the NII upgrade? Or is that more just rates kind of -- okay.

知道了。我想我想知道，你是否改進了假設？那是 NII 升級的一部分嗎？或者這更像是一種利率——好吧。

Yes. That's baked into the increase in NII that we gave, John.

是的。約翰，這已經包含在我們提供的 NII 的增加中。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess first question, Charlie, you've, in the past, talked about the 15% ROTCE as needing the asset capital lift and some level of higher rates. We're getting a lot more in terms of higher rates than we expected 6 months ago. Just doing rough math in terms of how you've talked about expense outlook, mid-teens NII growth. Do you think it's conceivable that we hit 15% ROTCE at some point over the next 4 to 6 quarters, even without the asset cap being lifted?

我想第一個問題，查理，你過去曾談到 15% 的 ROTCE 需要資產資本提升和一定程度的更高利率。我們得到的利率比我們 6 個月前預期的要高得多。就您如何談論費用前景，青少年 NII 增長而言，只是粗略計算一下。您認為即使沒有取消資產上限，我們是否可以在未來 4 到 6 個季度的某個時間點達到 15% 的 ROTCE？

I don't want to talk about a time frame yet because I think what we've consistently said and will stick to that is we'll get to 10%, and then we'll talk a little bit more about the 15% and try and hone a little bit more on timing. But I do think it is fair to assume that the rate rises that we're seeing are more than we would have thought was necessary to get to 15%.

我還不想談論時間框架，因為我認為我們一直在說並將堅持的就是我們將達到 10%，然後我們將更多地談論 15% 和試著在時間上多磨練一點。但我確實認為可以公平地假設我們看到的加息幅度超過了我們認為達到 15% 所必需的幅度。

But so I think the question of the asset cap not still being with us. I think that's just -- that is the reality. And so it's quite possible that the rate rises will be more of a benefit than we would have hoped in terms of offsetting that. But I just can't I think we should just wait until we get to 10%. But certainly, these rate rises that we're seeing and the asset sensitivity that we have are certainly a meaningful positive for us and more than we would have expected.

但所以我認為資產上限的問題還沒有出現。我認為這只是 - 這就是現實。因此，就抵消這一點而言，加息很可能比我們希望的更有利。但我不能，我認為我們應該等到我們達到 10%。但可以肯定的是，我們所看到的這些利率上升以及我們所擁有的資產敏感性對我們來說無疑是一個有意義的積極因素，而且超出了我們的預期。

I appreciate that response. And just one quick question on credit, Mike. When we think about another quarter of sizable reserve release, we've seen one of your peers yesterday built reserves, talking about just putting a higher weight on a stress case scenario. Give us a sense in terms of your outlook for the economy and how that leads to loan losses where they are today versus, I think your [D1 CECL] was about 95 basis points. Just any thought process around how you're thinking through that would be helpful.

我很欣賞這種回應。邁克，只是一個關於信用的快速問題。當我們考慮另外四分之一的大規模儲備釋放時，我們已經看到您的一位同行昨天建立了儲備，談論只是在壓力情況下增加了權重。讓我們了解一下您對經濟的展望，以及這如何導致目前的貸款損失，而我認為您的 [D1 CECL] 約為 95 個基點。任何關於你如何思考的思考過程都會有所幫助。

This is Charles. I'll take a stab at it first. I think it's -- I think understanding what's in our CECL assumptions is something which is important, as hard as it is to predict. It does give you a sense for how we're thinking about things and how our loan book and other items play out in that reserving calculation. But it is very hard to compare across companies because we have different scenarios. We put different profitabilities on different things. And the way the conservatism in models is different across companies. I think what we've seen consistently in our reserving levels as we've been on the more conservative side relative to others. That might just be a view of a more conservative set of assumptions or something which is embedded in our models or the way we think about just the potential impacts of COVID and now the potential impacts of a slowing economy.

這是查爾斯。我先試一試。我認為這是 - 我認為理解我們的 CECL 假設中的內容很重要，而且很難預測。它確實讓您了解我們是如何思考事物的，以及我們的貸款簿和其他項目如何在準備金計算中發揮作用。但是很難在公司之間進行比較，因為我們有不同的場景。我們把不同的利潤放在不同的東西上。模型中的保守主義方式因公司而異。我認為我們在儲備水平上一直看到的情況，因為我們相對於其他人來說更保守。這可能只是對一組更保守的假設的看法，或者是嵌入在我們的模型中的一些東西，或者是我們思考 COVID 的潛在影響以及現在經濟放緩的潛在影響的方式。

So I would say, overall, I don't -- sitting here today, if you were to look at our -- the way we look at the assumptions that go into it, I think we were already assuming a reasonable percentage of probability on the downside. And so that hasn't changed but we feel better about some of the assumptions we made relative to COVID, and we've added some assumptions relative to inflation. So I think net-net-net, that's what drives the reduction in terms of where we are. And I still think we're -- we feel very comfortable and hopefully are at the more conservative end of what can come out of a CECL calculation.

所以我想說，總的來說，我不 - 今天坐在這裡，如果你看看我們 - 我們看待其中假設的方式，我認為我們已經假設了合理百分比的概率不足之處。所以這並沒有改變，但我們對我們對 COVID 所做的一些假設感覺更好，並且我們添加了一些與通貨膨脹相關的假設。所以我認為net-net-net，這就是推動我們所處位置減少的原因。而且我仍然認為我們 - 我們感到非常舒服，並希望在 CECL 計算得出的結果中處於更保守的一端。

That's helpful. And should we then still assume that the reserves probably track lower over the next few quarters, at least absent a big change in the macro?

這很有幫助。那麼我們是否還應該假設儲備在接下來的幾個季度中可能會走低，至少在宏觀沒有重大變化的情況下？

Yes. I think it's all dependent on macro at this point. CECL requires you to take a look at based upon what the full amount of the losses embedded in the portfolio relative to what you see as the macroeconomic outlook and the specific performance. So if our outlook gets better, reserves will come down. If it gets worse, we'll go up. And if it stays the same, it will be along there.

是的。我認為此時這一切都取決於宏觀。 CECL 要求您根據投資組合中嵌入的全部損失金額相對於您所看到的宏觀經濟前景和具體表現進行查看。因此，如果我們的前景變得更好，儲備將會下降。如果情況變得更糟，我們會上升。如果它保持不變，它將一直存在。

The next question comes from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I had another semi technical question here. But on the NII outlook, I get your point that you should see improvement pretty near term from the rate environment. I'm just thinking about what you put in your release for the yields on loans where at least this quarter, loan yields came down a bit. Now I know part of that's probably day count, but we saw some declines in resi mortgage on first and second lien and also on the auto side. And I just wanted to get a sense -- and also in C&I, right? So I just wanted to get a sense what was playing into that Q-on-Q? And then how quickly that could revert as we go through this year?

我在這裡有另一個半技術問題。但就 NII 前景而言，我理解你的觀點，即你應該會在短期內看到利率環境的改善。我只是在想你在發布的貸款收益率上放了什麼，至少在本季度，貸款收益率有所下降。現在我知道其中一部分可能是天數，但我們看到第一和第二留置權以及汽車方面的再抵押貸款有所下降。而且我只是想了解一下——還有在 C&I 中，對嗎？所以我只是想了解一下 Q-on-Q 的作用是什麼？那麼隨著我們今年的發展，這種情況會以多快的速度恢復呢？

Yes. Betsy, it's Mike. I'll try to take a shot at that. I think on the resi mortgage side, what you're seeing is the impact of the EPBO loans and so they're coming -- the impacted of those coming down. So that creates a little bit of noise, I think, relative to the yield there.

是的。貝茜，是邁克。我會嘗試對此進行嘗試。我認為在 resi 抵押貸款方面，你看到的是 EPBO 貸款的影響，所以它們即將到來——那些下降的影響。我認為，相對於那裡的產量，這會產生一點噪音。

If you look at the rest of the -- on the C&I book, I'm going to get the directionally the percentage. But it's, call it, 2/3 of the C&I book in that neighborhood is floating rate, maybe plus or minus a little bit there. But the -- and so that starts to react pretty obviously, direct pretty quickly to rates moving. And any given quarter, you see a little bit of noise on that yield, but you'll start to see that react as rates go up.

如果您查看 C&I 書中的其餘部分，我將直接獲得百分比。但是，所謂的，該社區 2/3 的 C&I 書籍是浮動利率，可能正負一點點。但是 - 所以這開始非常明顯地反應，非常迅速地直接影響利率移動。在任何給定的季度，你都會看到一些關於收益率的噪音，但隨著利率的上升，你會開始看到這種反應。

Okay. It's not like it's hedged out, and that's why we saw what we saw [Q-on-Q]?

好的。這不像是被對沖了，這就是為什麼我們看到了我們所看到的[Q-on-Q]？

No.

不。

Okay. And then the other message I'm getting from you this morning is that this rate improvement you're expecting to drop to the bottom line? Is that fair?

好的。然後我今天早上從你那裡得到的另一個消息是，你期望這種利率提高會下降到底線？這公平嗎？

Well, I think we reiterated our expense guidance for the year, and NII is going to be a lot better.

好吧，我認為我們重申了今年的費用指導，NII 會好很多。

Betsy, what's in your question? I'm not sure I understand.

貝茜，你的問題是什麼？我不確定我是否理解。

Well, You're getting an uptick in rates. And given the fact that your guidance on expenses is holding steady, it seems like you're going to drop all that rate hike to the bottom line.

好吧，你的利率上升了。鑑於您對費用的指導保持穩定，看來您將把所有加息降到最低限度。

Well, I mean, yes, we're going to make more money on NII. We -- Mike went through the specifics on how noninterest income will likely come down, but not -- obviously not nearly as much as the benefit that we'll get as you look out over NII. And charge-offs still will remain at low levels for the foreseeable future, even though those will go up at some point. And yes, expenses will continue to come down for us to meet the [51.5 number]. So...

嗯，我的意思是，是的，我們將在 NII 上賺更多的錢。我們 - 邁克詳細介紹了非利息收入可能會如何下降，但沒有 - 顯然沒有像您在 NII 中看到的那樣我們將獲得的收益那麼多。在可預見的未來，沖銷仍將保持在較低水平，即使在某個時候會上升。是的，我們的費用將繼續下降以滿足 [51.5 數字]。所以...

Yes. I mean it feels like it's at least a mid-singles uptick on consensus EPS. That's what it feels like to me at least. But I mean I know if you drop all the NII to the bottom line, I get something closer to high-singles uptick on consensus EPS, but..

是的。我的意思是感覺這至少是共識每股收益的中單上升。至少我是這樣的感覺。但我的意思是我知道如果你把所有的 NII 都降到底線，我會在共識 EPS 上得到更接近高單次增長的東西，但是..

I'll just make sure you look at -- I mean, I try to lay out a little bit of what's going to happen on noninterest income. I think charge-offs are at all-time lows. You see the delinquency numbers. So unless there's something on the commercial side or the wholesale side that we're not aware of. It's -- we feel -- it's one of -- when we talk about how we feel, I think it's -- the economy is the economy. We are positioned well for this kind of environment. But we also think people should just make sure that they're conscious of the movement in all the line items.

我會確保你看看 - 我的意思是，我試圖列出一些非利息收入將會發生的事情。我認為沖銷處於歷史最低點。你會看到拖欠數字。因此，除非有我們不知道的商業方面或批發方面的東西。它是——我們覺得——它是其中之一——當我們談論我們的感受時，我認為它是——經濟就是經濟。我們為這種環境做好了準備。但我們也認為人們應該確保他們意識到所有訂單項的變動。

And then on the customer remediation charge that you took this quarter, I guess that's the other kind of question that I've been getting is, it's one timey, but it feels like it's happened a lot. So how much more is left?

然後關於您本季度收取的客戶補救費用，我想這是我一直得到的另一種問題，這是一個時間，但感覺它發生了很多。那麼還剩下多少呢？

It's really hard to answer, and I understand the frustration. And I would say, every quarter, we go through this, we say we want to make sure that we've got everything. But we are -- we have to make sure that when we look at these remediations, they're aligned with what makes sense for the customer and that we've captured all the portfolios. And some of our -- some of these remediations required us to go back and recreate a scenario from 10, 15 years ago.

這真的很難回答，我理解這種挫敗感。我想說，每個季度，我們都會經歷這個，我們說我們要確保我們擁有一切。但是我們 - 我們必須確保當我們查看這些補救措施時，它們與對客戶有意義的內容保持一致，並且我們已經捕獲了所有的投資組合。而我們的一些 - 其中一些補救措施要求我們返回並重新創建 10、15 年前的場景。

And so that's part of the complication that we see. And so we're not going to say that there's no more, but they're very case specific. And at some point, they will be behind us, but we have to do what we have to do. And at least in the big scheme of things relative to the benefits that we'll see from things like NII, these aren't overwhelming. And we understand how this fits into the guidance that we've given on full year expenses.

這就是我們看到的複雜情況的一部分。所以我們不會說沒有更多，但它們是非常具體的。在某個時候，他們會在我們身後，但我們必須做我們必須做的事情。至少在與我們將從 NII 之類的事物中看到的好處相關的大計劃中，這些並不是壓倒性的。我們了解這如何符合我們提供的全年費用指導。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I guess just following up on the regulatory line of questions. And as usual, I got to ask some questions that are tough to answer. But you've acknowledged you're making significant progress. The regulators have acknowledged you're making significant progress. The fundamentals are clearly moving in the right direction in a meaningful way. But in the prepared remarks, you still say you need to continue to close these gaps over the next several years? And I guess the question is, like is this just cautionary language? Or are there still things that you are implementing on kind of a daily and ongoing basis to address some of the legacy issues. I guess I thought you had implemented kind of the fixes and it's kind of the oversight and execution situation. But maybe you could just talk to that.

我想只是跟進監管問題。和往常一樣，我要問一些很難回答的問題。但你已經承認你正在取得重大進展。監管機構已經承認你們正在取得重大進展。基本面顯然正以有意義的方式朝著正確的方向發展。但在準備好的發言中，你還是說需要在未來幾年內繼續縮小這些差距？我想問題是，這只是警示語嗎？或者，您是否仍然在日常和持續的基礎上實施一些事情來解決一些遺留問題。我想我以為你已經實施了某種修復，這是一種監督和執行情況。但也許你可以談談。

Yes. I don't recall saying the words that you just used. I think we have been trying to be very clear that we have a lot of ongoing work to do that we feel very good about the frameworks that we have in place. But we are -- as you -- once you develop the framework, the implementation of the frameworks takes a significant amount of time. We continue to do that. And as we develop stronger controls inside the company, we will potentially find things that then have to get fixed and remediated because this is many years of work that we're doing at this point.

是的。我不記得說過你剛才說的話。我認為我們一直在努力明確表示我們有很多正在進行的工作要做，我們對我們現有的框架感覺非常好。但是我們——就像你一樣——一旦你開發了框架，框架的實現就會花費大量時間。我們繼續這樣做。隨著我們在公司內部建立更強大的控制，我們可能會發現必須修復和補救的問題，因為這是我們目前正在進行的多年工作。

And as the regulators look at the amount of time that it takes to do it at the things that we find, as we put these controls in place and just some of these legacy things that continue to remain out there, I just think it's prudent that we expect to have things. I think we say it's possible or likely but if there was something specific, we would say. But I think it is -- that's just -- that's the reality of the situation that we're in. And so it is -- where we find ourselves is -- and I'll speak for ourselves, not the regulators. We have made significant progress from where we were when we got here, but there is still a significant amount of more work to do.

當監管機構考慮在我們發現的事情上執行它所需的時間時，當我們實施這些控制措施以及其中一些繼續存在的遺留問題時，我只是認為謹慎的做法是我們期望有東西。我認為我們說這是可能的或可能的，但如果有具體的事情，我們會說。但我認為——這只是——這就是我們所處情況的現實。所以——我們發現自己在哪裡——我會為自己說話，而不是為監管機構說話。我們已經從我們到達這裡時取得了重大進展，但仍有大量工作要做。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on a different topic. And I apologize if I missed it. But you did talk about slowing buybacks in the second quarter, partly raised, partly loans. And obviously, you bought back a lot this quarter. Did you give the magnitude that you expect to buy back or remind us your targeted capital at least until the next CCAR comes out?

好的。然後只是對不同主題的跟進。如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。但你確實談到了第二季度放緩回購，部分是籌集，部分是貸款。顯然，你本季度回購了很多。您是否至少在下一個 CCAR 出現之前給出了您期望回購的規模或提醒我們您的目標資本？

Yes, Matt, I'll take that. As we've said a few times in the past, we plan to run the CET1 ratio at somewhere between 100 and 150 basis points over our reg minimum, which right now is 9.1%. And I think as we look forward, given the way the framework works is we'll have plenty of flexibility to do what we think is prudent on buybacks as we go throughout the rest of the year.

是的，馬特，我會接受的。正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，我們計劃將 CET1 比率運行在比我們的 reg 最低值（目前為 9.1%）高 100 到 150 個基點之間。我認為，在我們展望未來的過程中，鑑於框架的運作方式，我們將有足夠的靈活性在今年餘下的時間裡做我們認為謹慎的回購工作。

The next question comes from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

My questions have been asked and answered.

我的問題已被提出並得到回答。

The next question will come from Charles Peabody of Portales Partners.

下一個問題將來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

Most of my questions have been asked. But let me ask one question about how you manage your mortgage banking operation because you're one of the few large banks that still has a relatively balanced origination and servicing side. Historically, servicing was kind of viewed as a balance to origination. When originations didn't do well, servicing [didn't do] well. But that hasn't been the case recently in your recent history. And so can you talk about how you're managing it and why there isn't a balance to those 2 pieces?

我的大部分問題都被問到了。但是，讓我問一個關於您如何管理抵押銀行業務的問題，因為您是少數幾家仍然擁有相對平衡的發起和服務方面的大型銀行之一。從歷史上看，服務被視為一種對起源的平衡。當起源做得不好時，服務[做得不好]。但在你最近的歷史中，情況並非如此。那麼你能談談你是如何管理它的嗎？為什麼這兩個部分不平衡？

Yes, I'll start. This is Charlie. Mike, and then you can pipe in. I think we think about our mortgage business in the context of the whole company, not as a separate, independent entity that has to stand by itself. And so when we think about the interest rate risk position of the entire company, that's where we think about what potentially happens on the production side versus what happens in the MSR. The management of the MSR is difficult. It's got some very different types of risks embedded in it. And all you did was look at those 2 as offsets, you could be kidding yourselves as to what the value of the servicing is. And so as I said, net-net-net, when we look at the position of the company, I would look at the reduction of mortgage banking income not being offset by the MSR, but being offset by the rest of the benefit that will get as a company NII.

是的，我會開始的。這是查理。邁克，然後你就可以插話了。我認為我們在整個公司的背景下考慮我們的抵押貸款業務，而不是作為一個必須獨立存在的獨立實體。因此，當我們考慮整個公司的利率風險狀況時，我們會考慮生產方面可能發生的情況與 MSR 中發生的情況。 MSR的管理是困難的。它嵌入了一些非常不同類型的風險。而您所做的只是將這 2 個視為偏移量，您可能會在開玩笑說服務的價值是什麼。正如我所說，淨淨淨，當我們查看公司的情況時，我會查看抵押貸款銀行收入的減少並沒有被 MSR 抵消，而是被其餘的收益所抵消，這將獲得公司 NII。

And just as a follow-up, when you gave guidance about a material step down in mortgage banking in the second quarter, were you talking strictly on the origination side or as a whole entity?

作為後續行動，當您就第二季度抵押貸款銀行業務的實質性下降提供指導時，您是在嚴格地談論發起方還是作為一個整體？

As a whole, think of the mortgage banking income line as what we're referring to.

總體而言，將抵押銀行收入線視為我們所指的。

And remember, included in there is the fact that the MSR is fairly well hedged. So it's basically -- it's the whole, but it's also -- what's really driving it is origination.

請記住，其中包括一個事實，即 MSR 得到了很好的對沖。所以它基本上是——它是整體，但它也是——真正推動它的是起源。

Our final question for today will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Charlie, you both referenced in your comments about the excess capacity in mortgage banking and you're anticipating or waiting for some of that excess capacity to come out as originations of course, for the industry have come down to higher rates. What are some of the metrics you guys are monitoring and keeping an eye on to show you that, that capacity is coming out of the system?

查理，你們在評論中都提到了抵押貸款銀行產能過剩，當然，你們期待或等待一些過剩產能作為起源出現，因為該行業已經下降到更高的利率。你們正在監控和密切關注哪些指標來向您展示，該容量正在從系統中流出？

Well, I think as you think about the industry as a whole, it's hard, try to look at any specific metrics per se. But I think where you're going to see that first is likely gain on sale margins as people start normalize as excess capacity comes out, right? So I think that's probably one of the areas I would look at.

好吧，我認為當您考慮整個行業時，很難嘗試查看任何特定的指標本身。但我認為，隨著產能過剩的出現，人們開始正常化，你首先會看到銷售利潤的增長，對吧？所以我認為這可能是我會關注的領域之一。

Yes. And listen, I mean, people just -- everyone in the industry looks around it. The amount of volume being down substantially. They look at the amount of expense that they have, people then rationalize the expense that they have and that naturally changes the competitive dynamics about where people are pricing. So we're focused on making sure that we've got the right level of expense relative to the revenue and volume that we're seeing, and that's exactly what everyone else does.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，人們只是——這個行業的每個人都在環顧四周。成交量大幅下降。他們查看他們擁有的費用金額，然後人們將他們擁有的費用合理化，這自然會改變人們定價的競爭動態。因此，我們專注於確保相對於我們所看到的收入和數量，我們的支出水平是正確的，而這正是其他人所做的。

Very good. And Mike, just following up on your gain on sale and margin -- gain on the sale margins. What would you consider normal? And where are they for you guys today?

很好。邁克，只是跟進您的銷售和利潤收益 - 銷售利潤的收益。你認為什麼是正常的？他們今天在哪裡給你們？

Well, we don't disclose the margin itself as you sort of look forward. But normal varies, right, as you sort of look through the cycle in the mortgage business. And so I think we're certainly -- if you start thinking about primary, secondary spreads, that's one indicator of sort of where gain on sale margins will go, I think. And we're now back to what is likely more historical levels right around 100 basis points or so when you look at that. And that's -- so I think you're kind of back to a more normal level there. And then I think as excess capacity goes out, like you'll start to see the gain on sale come back up. So I think it's hard to say exactly what normal will look like there as we go through the cycle.

好吧，我們不會透露保證金本身，因為您有點期待。但正常情況會有所不同，對，當您瀏覽抵押貸款業務的周期時。所以我認為我們當然是——如果你開始考慮初級、次級價差，我認為這是銷售利潤率增長的一個指標。當你看到這個時，我們現在又回到了大約 100 個基點左右的歷史水平。那就是 - 所以我認為你在那裡回到了更正常的水平。然後我認為隨著產能過剩的消退，你會開始看到銷售收益回升。所以我認為很難準確地說出在我們經歷這個週期時那裡的正常情況。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up question. Mike, you alluded to the possibility that the stress capital buffer following this year CCAR could be a little higher for you folks. Is there -- can you give us some color what is making you think that way?

好的。然後作為一個後續問題。邁克，你提到今年 CCAR 之後的壓力資本緩衝對你們來說可能會更高一些。有沒有 - 你能給我們一些顏色是什麼讓你這麼想？

It's just the severity of the variables that went into it, Gerard. And obviously, it's a bit of a black box in terms of what -- exactly what the answer is. And so we're -- we do our best to try to look at like how that might impact us and how the Fed might look at it. But it's really based on the severity of the scenario that played through.

杰拉德，這只是變量的嚴重性。顯然，就答案而言，這有點像一個黑匣子——答案是什麼。所以我們 - 我們盡最大努力嘗試看看這可能會如何影響我們以及美聯儲可能會如何看待它。但這實際上是基於所經歷的場景的嚴重性。

And I think that's the last question. So we know it's a really busy day for everyone. So we thank you for spending the time, and we'll talk soon.

我認為這是最後一個問題。所以我們知道這對每個人來說都是非常忙碌的一天。因此，我們感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，我們很快就會談談。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。