富國銀行 (WFC) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Brad. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss fourth quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded.

謝謝你，布拉德。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf；我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第四季度的業績並回答您的問題。正在錄製此通話。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our fourth quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上提供了我們的第四季度收益材料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和演示文稿。我還想提醒您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素，包括今天提交的包含我們收益材料的 8-K 表格。有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的對賬，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks very much, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll make some brief comments about our 2021 results, the operating environment and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review fourth quarter results and some of our expectations for 2022 before we take your questions.

非常感謝，約翰，大家早上好。我將對我們 2021 年的業績、運營環境做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後，在我們回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以審查第四季度的業績和我們對 2022 年的一些預期。

Let me start with some 2021 highlights. We earned $21.5 billion or $4.95 per common share in 2021. Expenses declined 7% from a year ago, reflecting lower operating losses and progress on our efficiency initiatives. Revenue increased 6% as we benefited from strong gains from equity securities and gain from sales of our student lending, asset management and corporate trust businesses. We also have broad-based revenue growth across our businesses, including home lending, consumer and small business banking, credit card, auto, commercial real estate, banking and wealth and investment management.

讓我從 2021 年的一些亮點開始。 2021 年，我們賺取了 215 億美元或每股普通股 4.95 美元。費用比一年前下降了 7%，這反映了運營虧損減少和我們的效率舉措取得了進展。收入增長 6%，因為我們受益於股本證券的強勁收益以及出售學生貸款、資產管理和企業信託業務的收益。我們的業務也有廣泛的收入增長，包括住房貸款、消費者和小企業銀行業務、信用卡、汽車、商業房地產、銀行業務以及財富和投資管理。

Credit quality improved significantly as the economy improved and our customers had high levels of liquidity. Our loan charge-off ratio declined from 35 basis points in 2020 to 18 basis points in 2021, and our allowance for credit losses declined by $5.7 billion. Deposits increased $78 billion or 6% and loans grew 1%, with declines in the first half of the year offset by a 5% increase in the second half.

隨著經濟的改善和我們的客戶擁有高水平的流動性，信貸質量顯著改善。我們的貸款核銷率從 2020 年的 35 個基點下降到 2021 年的 18 個基點，我們的信貸損失準備金下降了 57 億美元。存款增長 780 億美元或 6%，貸款增長 1%，上半年的下降被下半年 5% 的增長所抵消。

We also returned a significant amount of capital to our shareholders, including increasing our common stock dividend from $0.10 per share to $0.20 per share in the third quarter. And we repurchased $14.5 billion of common stock, predominantly in the second half of the year after the return to the SCB framework. Our results in the fourth quarter also showed continued broad-based momentum. We earned $5.8 billion or $1.38 per common share. We grew loans by $32.6 billion or 4% and deposits by $12.1 billion or 1% from the third quarter.

我們還向股東返還了大量資本，包括在第三季度將普通股股息從每股 0.10 美元增加到每股 0.20 美元。我們回購了 145 億美元的普通股，主要是在重返 SCB 框架後的下半年。我們在第四季度的業績也顯示出持續廣泛的勢頭。我們賺取了 58 億美元或每股普通股 1.38 美元。與第三季度相比，我們的貸款增加了 326 億美元或 4%，存款增加了 121 億美元或 1%。

Expenses declined 1% from the third quarter and 11% from a year ago, and we generated positive operating leverage over both periods. Most importantly, we continued to prioritize our risk and control work. And the strong economy continues to positively impact our customers and our results. Consumers continue to have more liquidity than prior to the pandemic, though we do see this declining as the median balances today are 27% higher than pre-pandemic levels but are down 10% from the third quarter.

費用較第三季度下降 1%，較去年同期下降 11%，我們在兩個時期都產生了積極的經營槓桿。最重要的是，我們繼續優先考慮我們的風險和控制工作。強勁的經濟繼續對我們的客戶和我們的業績產生積極影響。與大流行之前相比，消費者的流動性繼續增加，儘管我們確實看到這種情況有所下降，因為今天的中位數餘額比大流行前的水平高出 27%，但比第三季度下降了 10%。

Consumer credit card spend also continued to be strong, up 28% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and up 27% from the fourth quarter of 2019. Holiday sales were strong with spending up 31% the 3 weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and that momentum continued post Thanksgiving. All spending categories were up in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, with the largest increases in travel, fuel, entertainment and dining.

消費者信用卡支出也繼續強勁，比 2020 年第四季度增長 28%，比 2019 年第四季度增長 27%。假日銷售強勁，在感恩節前的 3 週內支出增長了 31%，而且這種勢頭還在繼續感恩節後。與一年前相比，第四季度的所有支出類別都出現了增長，其中旅行、燃料、娛樂和餐飲的增幅最大。

Weekly debit card spend during the fourth quarter was up every week compared to both 2019 and 2020. This increase was driven by higher transactions but also higher spend per transaction, reflecting inflationary impacts and increased spending in higher cost categories such as travel.

與 2019 年和 2020 年相比，第四季度的每週借記卡支出每週都在增加。這一增長是由交易量增加和每筆交易支出增加推動的，這反映了通貨膨脹的影響和旅行等高成本類別的支出增加。

We are watching the impact from Omicron on consumer spending. And while there is some softening in restaurant, travel and entertainment in recent weeks, overall spending remained strong in the first week of January with credit card up 26% and debit card up 29% versus the same week in 2020. And we saw a strong loan growth from the third quarter across our commercial businesses, including commercial real estate, asset-based lending, middle market banking and our markets and banking businesses.

我們正在關注 Omicron 對消費者支出的影響。儘管最近幾週餐廳、旅遊和娛樂業有所放緩，但 1 月第一周的總體支出依然強勁，與 2020 年同期相比，信用卡增長 26%，借記卡增長 29%。我們看到了強勁的增長我們的商業業務第三季度的貸款增長，包括商業房地產、基於資產的貸款、中間市場銀行業務以及我們的市場和銀行業務。

So I've been at the company for a little over 2 years now, and I thought I'd spend a few minutes giving you my thoughts on our progress. Overall, I feel great about what we've accomplished and continue to feel energized about the opportunities in front of us. I think about this along several dimensions: talent, leadership and culture, risk regulatory and control, financial and strategic progress and our work on ESG and broader reputational issues.

所以我已經在公司工作了 2 年多一點，我想我會花幾分鐘時間告訴你我對我們進展的看法。總的來說，我對我們所取得的成就感覺很好，並且對我們面前的機會繼續感到充滿活力。我從幾個方面考慮這個問題：人才、領導力和文化、風險監管和控制、財務和戰略進展以及我們在 ESG 和更廣泛的聲譽問題上的工作。

I've spoken of the substantial talent changes we've made, but just to remind you, 11 of 18 members are new to the operating committee and 2 are new to their job since I arrived. Additionally, well over half of the senior-most people at our company, meaning those who are 1 level below the operating committee, are new to their roles and a significant proportion of them were hired from outside the company. This is a dramatic change in our leadership. And with it, we've changed how we run the company, how we prioritize our work and how we view our responsibility broadly.

我已經談到了我們所做的重大人才變動，但只是提醒您，18 名成員中有 11 名是運營委員會的新成員，而 2 名成員是我到任後的新工作。此外，在我們公司，超過一半的最高級人員，也就是比運營委員會低 1 級的人，是新上任的人，其中很大一部分是從公司外部聘用的。這是我們領導層的巨大變化。有了它，我們改變了經營公司的方式，改變了工作優先級的方式以及廣泛地看待我們的責任的方式。

We began a process 2 years ago to change the culture and priorities of the company. And the most significant part of this prioritization was the building and implementation of an effective risk and control framework across the company. Our approach and our progress are entirely different than they were when I arrived. We are laser-focused on meeting our own expectations and those of our regulators. We have clear plans in place and clear owners for every regulatory deliverable we have. We have detailed reporting on how we're progressing on those plans. We review this reporting every single week at the operating committee level.

2 年前，我們開始了改變公司文化和優先事項的流程。這種優先排序中最重要的部分是在整個公司建立和實施有效的風險和控制框架。我們的方法和進展與我到達時完全不同。我們專注於滿足我們自己和監管機構的期望。對於我們擁有的每項監管可交付成果，我們都有明確的計劃和明確的所有者。我們詳細報告了這些計劃的進展情況。我們每週都會在運營委員會層面審查這份報告。

The detailed involvement of the operating committee members is very different from what was happening before I arrived. Our ability to identify issues has also improved from 2 years ago. I continue to believe that we're making significant progress, and this is based on what we see in our internal reporting. It doesn't mean that we're perfect. The fact that we have multiple consent orders makes it complex. It takes time to build all of our capabilities. And it's certainly in the regulator's purview to look at issues that have been outstanding for a long time, like the OCC did in the third quarter.

運營委員會成員的詳細參與與我到達之前發生的情況大不相同。我們發現問題的能力也比兩年前有所提高。我仍然相信我們正在取得重大進展，這是基於我們在內部報告中看到的。這並不意味著我們是完美的。我們有多個同意令這一事實使其變得複雜。建立我們所有的能力需要時間。監管機構的職權範圍肯定是關注長期以來懸而未決的問題，就像 OCC 在第三季度所做的那樣。

But I would point you to the comment made by the OCC in their recent consent order that highlights that we have taken steps to comply with their 2018 order, and we're committed to addressing remaining requirements. I remain confident in our ability to continue to close the remaining gaps over the next several years. Having said that, it continues to be the case that we're likely to have setbacks along the way. But that doesn't change the fact that we believe that the quality of the talent we now have and the processes we now have in place will enable us to get the work done.

但我要向您指出 OCC 在他們最近的同意令中發表的評論，該評論強調我們已採取措施遵守他們 2018 年的命令，並且我們致力於解決剩餘的要求。我對我們在未來幾年繼續縮小剩餘差距的能力充滿信心。話雖如此，但我們仍然可能在此過程中遇到挫折。但這並不能改變這樣一個事實，即我們相信我們現在擁有的人才質量和我們現有的流程將使我們能夠完成工作。

We're making progress increasing the earnings power of the company and have also begun to invest in a more holistic and aggressive way to drive stronger organic growth in all of our businesses. We're just now beginning to bring things to market that are differentiated, and the number of significant opportunities are exciting. We're continuing to track to the financial return goals we've discussed: first, achieve a sustainable 10% ROTCE, subject to the same assumptions we've discussed in the past and then target 15%. We continue to believe that we will achieve the 10% during one of the quarters in 2022 on an annualized basis.

我們在提高公司的盈利能力方面取得了進展，並開始以更全面、更積極的方式進行投資，以推動我們所有業務實現更強勁的有機增長。我們現在才剛剛開始將差異化的產品推向市場，大量的重大機會令人興奮。我們將繼續跟踪我們討論過的財務回報目標：首先，實現 10% 的可持續 ROTCE，前提是我們過去討論過的相同假設，然後目標是 15%。我們仍然相信，我們將在 2022 年的一個季度中按年計算達到 10%。

To achieve this, we're aggressively focused on driving efficiencies and we're seeing net expense reductions after significant investments in our control build-out and our businesses. We are aggressively returning excess capital to shareholders now that we've returned to the SCB framework. We continue to manage credit well, and we're seeing early benefits from higher interest rates, growing loan balances and higher fees in certain businesses. We're doing this while devoting significant resources to building our franchise.

為了實現這一目標，我們積極專注於提高效率，並且在對我們的控制權擴建和業務進行大量投資後，我們看到淨費用減少。既然我們已經回到了 SCB 框架，我們正在積極地向股東返還多餘的資本。我們繼續良好地管理信貸，並且我們看到了較高的利率、不斷增長的貸款餘額和某些業務的更高費用的早期收益。我們這樣做的同時投入了大量資源來建立我們的特許經營權。

We have fallen behind in providing competitive digital capabilities for our clients. This is changing. In the fourth quarter, we announced a rebuilt mobile banking experience for consumer and small business customers that is set to beginning -- set to begin rolling out this quarter. It has a new modern look and feel and a simpler user experience that will help our customers more easily accomplish their banking needs. This platform is necessary to drive significantly higher digital adoption from our customers.

我們在為客戶提供有競爭力的數字能力方面落後了。這正在改變。在第四季度，我們宣佈為消費者和小型企業客戶重建移動銀行體驗，該體驗即將開始——將於本季度開始推出。它具有全新的現代外觀和更簡單的用戶體驗，將幫助我們的客戶更輕鬆地完成他們的銀行業務需求。該平台對於推動客戶大幅提高數字化採用率是必要的。

Even with our existing capabilities, in the fourth quarter, our customers logged in 1.6 billion times using a mobile device, up 7% year-over-year. Teller transactions remained more than 30% lower than pre-pandemic levels. We also announced that later this year, we'll be adding an all-new virtual assistant, Fargo to the app. Customers will be able to get answers to their everyday banking questions, ask Fargo to complete the task for them, and Fargo will also provide personalized insights and recommendations to help customers better manage their finances.

即使我們現有的能力，在第四季度，我們的客戶使用移動設備登錄了 16 億次，同比增長 7%。櫃員交易量仍比疫情前水平低 30% 以上。我們還宣布，今年晚些時候，我們將在應用程序中添加全新的虛擬助手 Fargo。客戶將能夠獲得日常銀行業務問題的答案，要求 Fargo 為他們完成任務，Fargo 還將提供個性化的見解和建議，以幫助客戶更好地管理他們的財務。

We will also be introducing the first phase of the redesign of our public website early this year. In addition, we're beginning to become more active on the wholesale side. For example, we announced that we're collaborating with HSBC to optimize the settlement of foreign exchange transactions through a blockchain-based solution, which will reduce settlement risks and associated costs. We're also approaching payments and credit cards very differently. We believe credit cards will remain important as both the credit and as a payment vehicle. We were also doing additional work around non-card payments and believe we must succeed here to be a key financial services provider.

我們還將在今年年初推出我們公共網站重新設計的第一階段。此外，我們開始在批發方面變得更加活躍。例如，我們宣布與匯豐銀行合作，通過基於區塊鏈的解決方案優化外匯交易結算，這將降低結算風險和相關成本。我們也在以非常不同的方式處理付款和信用卡。我們相信信用卡作為信用和支付工具仍然很重要。我們還在非卡支付方面進行了額外的工作，並相信我們必須在這方面取得成功，才能成為關鍵的金融服務提供商。

Two years ago, our products and capabilities supporting those products were not as competitive as necessary. In 2021, we launched 2 products, including Active Cash, which we believe is the best cash-backed product in the marketplace, and Reflect, which rewards customers for on-time payments. We improved the core experience, including investing in advertising, simplifying our digital application and enhancing our underwriting. These efforts have driven an increase in digital card activation, paperless statements and enrollment alerts.

兩年前，我們的產品和支持這些產品的能力還沒有必要的競爭力。 2021 年，我們推出了 2 款產品，包括我們認為是市場上最好的現金支持產品的 Active Cash，以及獎勵按時付款的客戶的 Reflect。我們改進了核心體驗，包括投資廣告、簡化我們的數字應用程序和加強我們的承保。這些努力推動了數字卡激活、無紙化報表和註冊警報的增加。

We are opening approximately twice as many accounts as we were prelaunch of these products, and importantly, we're not competing on credit. In fact, the quality of applications and the accounts for booking continues to be better than what we were booking historically.

我們開設的賬戶數量大約是這些產品發布前的兩倍，重要的是，我們沒有在信用方面進行競爭。事實上，應用程序和預訂賬戶的質量繼續優於我們以往的預訂質量。

Away from card, we're beginning to invest in our broader digital payments across the platform, enhancing our capabilities, increasing limits and broadly reducing the friction and moving money. As evidence, Zelle momentum continued to accelerate with Zelle transactions up 46% from a year ago.

除了卡，我們開始在整個平台上投資更廣泛的數字支付，增強我們的能力，增加限制並廣泛減少摩擦和轉移資金。作為證據，Zelle 的發展勢頭繼續加速，Zelle 的交易量比一年前增長了 46%。

We are also taking a very different approach in that we believe that for us to be successful, we must consider a broader set of stakeholders in our decisions and actions. This is not in lieu of shareholders. In fact, we believe it will enhance our returns to shareholders over time. We have taken significant efforts to support small businesses since the beginning of the pandemic and recently fulfilled our roughly $420 million Open for Business fund commitment to assist small businesses in recovering from the pandemic, by working with not-for-profits to offer capital, technical assistance and long-term programs. The fund was created by donating the gross processing fees we made from administering the Paycheck Protection Program loans in 2020.

我們還採取了一種非常不同的方法，因為我們相信，要取得成功，我們必須在我們的決策和行動中考慮更廣泛的利益相關者。這不能代替股東。事實上，我們相信隨著時間的推移，它將提高我們對股東的回報。自大流行開始以來，我們為支持小企業付出了巨大的努力，最近履行了大約 4.2 億美元的 Open for Business 基金承諾，通過與非營利組織合作提供資金、技術支持，幫助小企業從大流行中恢復過來。援助和長期計劃。該基金是通過捐贈我們在 2020 年管理薪資保護計劃貸款所產生的總手續費而創建的。

Additionally, we made significant climate commitments in 2021. In the fourth quarter, we joined the Net Zero Banking Alliance, an industry-led leadership group designed to foster collaboration and support banks in aligning their financing with the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change is one of the most urgent environmental and social issues of our time. And last year, we announced our goal to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions, including emissions attributable to financing by 2050. We expect to announce our first finance emission targets for the oil and gas and power sectors later this year.

此外，我們在 2021 年做出了重大氣候承諾。第四季度，我們加入了淨零銀行聯盟，這是一個由行業領導的領導小組，旨在促進合作並支持銀行將其融資與實現溫室氣體淨零排放的目標保持一致.氣候變化是我們這個時代最緊迫的環境和社會問題之一。去年，我們宣布了實現溫室氣體淨零排放的目標，包括到 2050 年因融資而產生的排放。我們預計將在今年晚些時候宣布石油、天然氣和電力行業的首個融資排放目標。

We made our first solar-plus-battery-storage tax equity commitment. Once it is operational, it will be one of the largest solar and battery projects in the company. Last year, we surpassed $13.3 billion in cumulative tax equity investments in nearly 600 wind, solar and fuel cell transactions. These investments have provided 13% of all utility scale wind and solar capacity in the U.S. over the past 16 years. We continue to be one of the top investors in affordable multifamily housing in the U.S. as well as an active lender for affordable rental housing developments.

我們做出了第一個太陽能加電池儲能稅收公平承諾。一旦投入運營，它將成為公司最大的太陽能和電池項目之一。去年，我們在近 600 筆風能、太陽能和燃料電池交易中的累計稅收股權投資超過 133 億美元。在過去的 16 年中，這些投資提供了美國所有公用事業規模的風能和太陽能容量的 13%。我們繼續是美國經濟適用多戶住宅的頂級投資者之一，也是經濟適用租賃住房開發的積極貸款人。

Additionally, we're committed to expanding affordable homeownership. For example, in the fourth quarter, we committed to invest $5 million through the Neighborhood LIFT program to help more than 300 low and moderate income residents in Houston with home payment down assistance -- I'm sorry, home down payment assistance. We've also supported our employees and in December, we announced that as part of our commitment to providing comprehensive benefits and competitive pay, we're increasing U.S. minimum pay hourly pay levels to a range of $18 to $22 effective at the end of this month.

此外，我們致力於擴大負擔得起的房屋所有權。例如，在第四季度，我們承諾通過 Neighborhood LIFT 計劃投資 500 萬美元，幫助休斯頓的 300 多名中低收入居民提供房屋首付援助——對不起，房屋首付援助。我們還支持我們的員工，在 12 月，我們宣布，作為我們提供全面福利和有競爭力的薪酬承諾的一部分，我們將美國的最低時薪水平提高到 18 美元到 22 美元的範圍，在本月底生效月。

Just this week, we announced new efforts that will roll out over the course of 2022 to help our consumer customers avoid overdraft fees and cover short-term cash needs, building on other changes we've made over the last several years. The changes we announced include the elimination of transfer fees for customers enrolled in overdraft protection, the elimination of non-sufficient fund fees, early access to direct deposit by providing customer access to funds up to 2 days before their scheduled deposit, a 24-hour grace period for customers that overdraw their account to cover the balance before incurring an overdraft fee, and a new short-term credit product for customers to meet personal financial needs.

就在本週，我們宣布了將在 2022 年推出的新舉措，以幫助我們的消費者客戶避免透支費用並滿足短期現金需求，這是我們在過去幾年中做出的其他改變的基礎上。我們宣布的更改包括取消對已註冊透支保護的客戶的轉賬費用、取消不足的資金費用、通過在預定存款前 2 天、24 小時向客戶提供資金來提早獲得直接存款為透支賬戶的客戶提供寬限期以支付透支費用前的餘額，並為客戶提供新的短期信貸產品以滿足個人財務需求。

This builds on existing features we already have in place, including Clear Access Banking, our no-overdraft checking account that we launched in September 2020, and we now have over 1.1 million outstanding customer accounts. Overdraft Rewind, which was introduced in 2017, which automatically rewinds overdraft fees when a covering direct deposit is received by the next morning, which were replaced by our expanded 24-hour grace period. Balance alerts that help customers avoid overdraft by sending more than 1.3 million alerts every day. Putting all of these changes in perspective, these fees are down significantly since the financial crisis. We have alternatives for both customers that do not want to overdraft and those that do. This is a competitive marketplace. We continue to review our capabilities and pricing with the goal of providing value to our customer.

這建立在我們已經具備的現有功能的基礎上，包括 Clear Access Banking，我們於 2020 年 9 月推出的無透支支票賬戶，我們現在擁有超過 110 萬個未結清客戶賬戶。 Overdraft Rewind 於 2017 年推出，當第二天早上收到涵蓋的直接存款時，它會自動收回透支費用，取而代之的是我們擴大的 24 小時寬限期。通過每天發送超過 130 萬條提醒來幫助客戶避免透支的餘額提醒。從所有這些變化的角度來看，這些費用自金融危機以來顯著下降。對於不想透支的客戶和願意透支的客戶，我們都有替代方案。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們將繼續審查我們的能力和定價，以期為我們的客戶提供價值。

And let me make a few comments now as we look forward. While there is a risk with the continued growth of the Omicron variant or potentially other variants later this year, I expect to see continued strong economic trends in 2022. Consumers' financial condition remains strong. Modest debt growth, strong asset appreciation and higher deposit balances have left household balance sheets in excellent condition, which should help drive continued strong consumer spending.

現在讓我在我們期待的時候發表一些評論。儘管今年晚些時候 Omicron 變體或可能的其他變體的持續增長存在風險，但我預計 2022 年經濟趨勢將持續強勁。消費者的財務狀況依然強勁。適度的債務增長、強勁的資產升值和更高的存款餘額使家庭資產負債表狀況良好，這將有助於推動持續強勁的消費支出。

Corporate America has demonstrated the ability to adapt to the ever-changing pandemic conditions. Inventories remained unusually lean as businesses adopted a defensive posture and supply chains have been disrupted. This is expected to result in substantial gains in industrial production as they continue to restock. We're beginning to see loan growth and expect this to continue.

美國企業已經展示了適應不斷變化的流行病條件的能力。由於企業採取防禦姿態並且供應鏈被打亂，庫存仍然異常稀少。隨著他們繼續補充庫存，預計這將導致工業生產大幅增長。我們開始看到貸款增長，並預計這種情況會持續下去。

In a moment, Mike will provide our thoughts on net interest income and expenses for 2022. I commented earlier that we remain on target to achieve a sustainable 10% ROTCE, subject to the same assumptions we've discussed in the past, on a run rate basis at some point this year. And that once we've achieved this goal, we'll discuss our plan to continue to increase returns. But at a high level, we continue to believe we can further improve our returns through a combination of factors including a modest increase in interest rates or further steepening of the curve; ongoing progress on incremental efficiency initiatives; a small impact from returns on growth-related investments in our businesses; continued execution on our risk and regulatory control framework; and moderate balance sheet growth once the asset cap is lifted. It's important to note we currently have the ability to grow loans even under the asset cap.

稍後，邁克將提供我們對 2022 年淨利息收入和支出的看法。我之前評論說，我們仍然按目標實現可持續 10% 的 ROTCE，但前提是我們在過去討論過的相同假設下，在運行中今年某個時候的利率基礎。一旦我們實現了這個目標，我們將討論我們繼續增加回報的計劃。但在較高的水平上，我們仍然相信我們可以通過多種因素進一步提高我們的回報，包括利率適度上升或曲線進一步變陡；提高效率舉措的持續進展；回報對我們業務增長相關投資的影響很小；繼續執行我們的風險和監管控制框架；一旦解除資產上限，資產負債表將適度增長。值得注意的是，即使在資產上限之下，我們目前也有能力增加貸款。

The changes we made to the company and continued strong economic growth prospects make us feel good about how we're positioned entering 2022. We also remain cognizant that we still have a multiyear effort to satisfy our regulatory requirements with setbacks likely to continue along the way. And we continue our work to put exposures related to our historical practices behind us.

我們對公司所做的改變和持續強勁的經濟增長前景讓我們對進入 2022 年的定位感到滿意。我們也仍然認識到，我們仍然需要多年努力才能滿足監管要求，但挫折可能會繼續存在.我們繼續努力將與我們的歷史實踐相關的曝光置於我們身後。

As we look forward, we will continue to be aggressive in driving progress and improvement in our performance, embrace our responsibility to our customers and communities, and I remain incredibly optimistic about our future. I want to conclude by thanking our employees who continued to serve our customers through another challenging year. I appreciate their hard work and their resiliency while we made progress on making Wells Fargo better. I look forward to all that we accomplish in the year ahead. I will now turn the call over to Mike.

展望未來，我們將繼續積極推動業績的進步和改進，承擔我們對客戶和社區的責任，我對我們的未來仍然非常樂觀。最後，我要感謝我們的員工，他們在又一個充滿挑戰的一年中繼續為我們的客戶服務。我感謝他們的辛勤工作和他們的韌性，同時我們在使富國銀行變得更好方面取得了進展。我期待著我們在來年取得的所有成就。我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Great. Thanks, Charlie, and good morning, everybody. Charlie summarized how we helped our customers, communities and employees last year on Slides 2 and 3, so I'm going to start with our fourth quarter financial results on Slide 4.

偉大的。謝謝，查理，大家早上好。 Charlie 在幻燈片 2 和 3 中總結了我們去年如何幫助我們的客戶、社區和員工，所以我將從幻燈片 4 中的第四季度財務業績開始。

Net income for the quarter was $5.8 billion or $1.38 per share -- common share. Our fourth quarter results included a $943 million net gain on the sales of our Corporate Trust Services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management. There could be future gains related to these sales due to post-closing adjustments and earn-out provisions; an $875 million decrease in allowance for credit losses as credit trends continue to be strong, and a $260 million impairment of certain leased railcars due to changes in demand for these cars.

本季度的淨收入為 58 億美元或每股 1.38 美元——普通股。我們第四季度的業績包括公司信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理的銷售淨收益 9.43 億美元。由於交割後調整和盈利準備金，這些銷售可能會在未來獲得收益；由於信貸趨勢繼續強勁，信貸損失準備金減少了 8.75 億美元，由於對這些車輛的需求變化，某些租賃的鐵路車輛減值 2.6 億美元。

We also had $2.5 billion or $1.9 billion after noncontrolling interest of equity gains, primarily from our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses, the third consecutive quarter of strong returns in these businesses. Our effective income tax rate in the fourth quarter was approximately 23%, including the discrete impacts related to business divestitures. Our CET1 ratio declined to 11.4% in the fourth quarter, reflecting share repurchases and an increase in risk-weighted assets primarily from loan growth in the quarter.

我們還獲得了 25 億美元或 19 億美元的非控制性股權收益，主要來自我們的附屬風險投資和私募股權業務，這些業務連續第三個季度獲得強勁回報。我們第四季度的有效所得稅率約為 23%，包括與業務剝離相關的離散影響。我們的 CET1 比率在第四季度下降至 11.4%，反映了股票回購和主要來自該季度貸款增長的風險加權資產增加。

We repurchased $7 billion of common stock in the fourth quarter, partially offset by $1.4 billion of new issuances, predominantly for the annual matching contribution for our 401(k) plans. As a reminder, the regulatory minimum for our CET1 ratio will be 9.1% in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting a lower G-SIB capital surcharge.

我們在第四季度回購了 70 億美元的普通股，部分被 14 億美元的新發行所抵消，主要用於我們 401(k) 計劃的年度匹配貢獻。提醒一下，2022 年第一季度，我們的 CET1 比率的最低監管要求為 9.1%，反映出 G-SIB 資本附加費較低。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 6. Our net charge-off ratio was 19 basis points in the fourth quarter. Commercial credit performance continued to be strong with net loan charge-offs declining $10 million from the third quarter to 2 basis points. Despite the challenges created by the pandemic, the commercial real estate portfolio has continued to perform well. Commercial real estate valuations and investment activity has rebounded off their lows across all property types, although there is still some risk in office and select hotel and retail segments.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的信用質量。第四季度我們的淨沖銷率為 19 個基點。商業信貸表現繼續強勁，淨貸款沖銷較第三季度減少 1,000 萬美元至 2 個基點。儘管大流行帶來了挑戰，但商業房地產投資組合繼續表現良好。商業房地產估值和投資活動已從所有房地產類型的低點反彈，儘管寫字樓、精選酒店和零售領域仍存在一些風險。

Consumer credit performance also remained strong with higher collateral values for homes and autos and consumer cash reserves remain above pre-pandemic levels. Consumer net charge-offs of $393 million increased $172 million from the third quarter. $152 million of the increase is related to a change in practice to fully charge off certain delinquent legacy residential mortgage loans. Nonperforming assets increased $145 million or 2% from the third quarter, driven by an increase in residential mortgage nonaccruals, primarily resulting from certain customers exiting COVID-related accommodation programs. Loans that were modified in 2021 upon exiting forbearance are reported as nonaccrual until they perform for a period of time.

消費者信貸表現也保持強勁，房屋和汽車的抵押品價值較高，消費者現金儲備仍高於大流行前的水平。消費者淨沖銷 3.93 億美元，較第三季度增加 1.72 億美元。增加的 1.52 億美元與實踐的改變有關，以完全沖銷某些拖欠的遺留住宅抵押貸款。不良資產較第三季度增加 1.45 億美元或 2%，主要是由於某些客戶退出了與 COVID 相關的住宿計劃。 2021 年因退出暫緩而修改的貸款在執行一段時間之前報告為非應計貸款。

Overall, early performance of loans that have exited forbearance have been aligned with our expectations. After increasing during the first 4 quarters of the pandemic, commercial nonperforming assets have declined for 4 consecutive quarters, and we're back to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter. Our allowance level at the end of the fourth quarter reflected continued strong credit performance, the ongoing economic recovery and the uncertainties that still remain. If the economic recovery continues, we would expect to have additional reserve releases.

總體而言，已退出暫緩的貸款的早期表現與我們的預期一致。在大流行的前四個季度增加之後，商業不良資產連續四個季度下降，我們在第四季度回到了大流行前的水平。我們在第四季度末的撥備水平反映了持續強勁的信貸表現、持續的經濟復甦以及仍然存在的不確定性。如果經濟繼續復甦，我們預計會有更多的儲備釋放。

On Slide 7, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 2% from the third quarter with growth in both our commercial and consumer portfolios. We had strong growth late in the quarter and period-end loans grew $32.6 billion or 4% from the third quarter with broad-based growth across most of our commercial and consumer portfolios. I'll highlight the specific growth geographies over when discussing business segment results.

在幻燈片 7 中，我們重點介紹了貸款和存款。隨著我們的商業和消費者投資組合的增長，平均貸款比第三季度增長了 2%。我們在本季度末實現了強勁增長，期末貸款比第三季度增長了 326 億美元，即 4%，我們的大部分商業和消費投資組合都有廣泛的增長。在討論業務部門的結果時，我將強調特定的增長地區。

Average deposits increased $89.9 billion or 7% from a year ago with growth in our consumer businesses and commercial banking, partially offset by continued declines in corporate, investment banking and in corporate treasury, reflecting targeted actions to manage under the asset cap.

隨著我們的消費業務和商業銀行業務的增長，平均存款同比增加 899 億美元或 7%，部分被企業、投資銀行業務和企業資金的持續下降所抵消，這反映了在資產上限下進行管理的有針對性的行動。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 8. A year ago, we provided our expectation for 2021 net interest income to be flat to down 4% from the originally reported annualized fourth quarter 2020 level, and we ended up being down 3% for the full year. Fourth quarter net interest income was down $93 million or 1% from a year ago and grew $353 million or 4% from the third quarter. The increase in the third quarter was driven by higher loan balances, including higher interest income from loans purchased from securitization pools or EPBOs. We also benefited from higher trading assets and a favorable funding mix.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的淨利息收入。一年前，我們預計 2021 年的淨利息收入將與最初報告的 2020 年第四季度年化水平持平至下降 4%，最終全年下降 3%年。第四季度淨利息收入比去年同期下降 9300 萬美元或 1%，比第三季度增長 3.53 億美元或 4%。第三季度的增長是由較高的貸款餘額推動的，包括從證券化池或 EPBO 購買的貸款產生的較高利息收入。我們還受益於更高的交易資產和有利的資金組合。

In the fourth quarter, we had $318 million of interest income associated with EPBOs, and at year-end, we had a total of $17.3 billion of these loans, down from $34.8 billion a year ago. And as I highlighted last quarter, we expect these balances to decline substantially by the end of this year. We also had $130 million of interest income in the fourth quarter from Paycheck Protection Program loans or PPP loans, and were outstanding -- and are outstanding decline to $2.4 billion at year-end. We've reflected the headwind from these portfolios running off in our 2022 net interest income waterfall that I will review later on the call. The net interest margin increased 8 basis points from the third quarter, 3 basis points of which was due to higher interest income from EPBOs.

在第四季度，我們有 3.18 億美元與 EPBO 相關的利息收入，到年底，我們總共有 173 億美元的這些貸款，低於一年前的 348 億美元。正如我在上個季度強調的那樣，我們預計到今年年底這些餘額將大幅下降。我們在第四季度還從薪資保護計劃貸款或 PPP 貸款中獲得了 1.3 億美元的利息收入，並且未償還 - 到年底，未償還餘額下降至 24 億美元。我們已經在我們的 2022 年淨利息收入瀑布中反映了這些投資組合的逆風，我將在稍後的電話會議上進行審查。淨息差較第三季度增加 8 個基點，其中 3 個基點是由於 EPBO 的利息收入增加所致。

Now turning to expenses on Slide 9. Noninterest expense declined 11% from a year ago. The decrease reflected progress we made on our efficiency initiatives, including reductions in personnel costs, consultant spend and occupancy expense. I will provide specific examples of the progress we made in our efficiency initiatives in 2021 later on the call before updating you on our expense expectations for 2022. We also had lower restructuring charges and operating losses in the fourth quarter compared with a year ago. Fourth quarter expenses included 1 month or approximately $100 million of operating expenses from our Corporate Trust Services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management prior to their sales on November 1.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 的費用。非利息費用比一年前下降了 11%。減少反映了我們在提高效率舉措方面取得的進展，包括減少人員成本、顧問支出和占用費用。我將在稍後的電話會議上提供我們在 2021 年效率舉措中取得的進展的具體示例，然後再向您更新我們對 2022 年的費用預期。與一年前相比，我們在第四季度的重組費用和運營虧損也較低。第四季度費用包括我們的企業信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理在 11 月 1 日出售之前的 1 個月或約 1 億美元的運營費用。

Now turning to our business segments, starting with Consumer Banking lending on Slide 10. Consumer and Small Business Banking revenue increased 4% from a year ago, primarily due to higher deposit-related fees as fourth quarter 2020 included some COVID-related fee waivers. Fourth quarter 2021 also reflected an increase in consumer activity, including higher debit card transactions compared with a year ago and the benefit of strong deposit growth was largely offset by lower spreads.

現在轉向我們的業務部門，從幻燈片 10 上的個人銀行貸款開始。個人和小型企業銀行業務收入同比增長 4%，主要是由於存款相關費用增加，因為 2020 年第四季度包括一些與 COVID 相關的費用減免。 2021 年第四季度還反映了消費者活動的增加，包括與一年前相比更高的借記卡交易量，而強勁的存款增長帶來的好處在很大程度上被較低的利差所抵消。

Charlie highlighted the enhancements and changes we're making to help our customers avoid overdraft fees. The impact from the fees that will be reduced, including the elimination of non-sufficient fund or NSF fees as well as overdraft protection transfer fees, is estimated to be approximately $700 million annually. Also, we expect that they may be partially offset by other fees due to higher levels of activity as well as the expiration of various fee-related waivers that were in place in 2021.

Charlie 強調了我們為幫助客戶避免透支費用而進行的增強和更改。費用將減少的影響，包括取消資金不足或 NSF 費用以及透支保護轉移費用，估計每年約為 7 億美元。此外，由於活動水平較高以及 2021 年實施的各種與費用相關的豁免到期，我們預計它們可能會被其他費用部分抵消。

In terms of new features to be rolled out in the latter part of the year, including a 24-hour grace period for overdrafts and a new short-term loan product, we will have to observe how customers respond.

至於下半年推出的新功能，包括24小時透支寬限期和新的短期貸款產品，我們將不得不觀察客戶的反應。

Home lending revenue declined 8% from a year ago, primarily due to lower mortgage banking income, driven by lower gain on sale margins and origination volumes. Even before the recent rate back up, we started to see a drop in application volume in December, and we expect originations to decline in 2022, which will put pressure on margins as the industry adapts to the lower volume. Credit card revenue was up 3% from a year ago, driven by higher point-of-sale volume, partially offset by higher rewards costs, including promotional offers on our new active Cash Card. Auto revenue increased 17% from a year ago and higher loan balances with the average balances up $6.8 billion.

房屋貸款收入比一年前下降了 8%，主要是由於銷售利潤率和發起量收益下降導致抵押貸款銀行收入下降。甚至在最近的利率回升之前，我們在 12 月就開始看到申請量下降，我們預計 2022 年的申請量將下降，隨著行業適應較低的數量，這將對利潤率造成壓力。信用卡收入比一年前增長了 3%，這是由於銷售點數量增加，但部分被獎勵成本增加所抵消，包括我們新的有效現金卡的促銷優惠。汽車收入同比增長 17%，貸款餘額增加，平均餘額增加 68 億美元。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 11. Our mortgage originations declined 7% from the third quarter. We expect our first quarter originations to continue to decline due to lower refinance activity and the typical seasonal slowdown in the purchase market. We increased our nonconforming originations in the fourth quarter and have grown our nonconforming portfolio for 7 consecutive months, reflecting the improvements in our capabilities as well as the reintroduction of cash-out refinancing late in the first quarter of 2021.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。我們的抵押貸款發放量比第三季度下降了 7%。由於再融資活動減少和採購市場典型的季節性放緩，我們預計第一季度的發起將繼續下降。我們在第四季度增加了不合格的來源，並連續 7 個月增加了不合格的投資組合，這反映了我們能力的提高以及在 2021 年第一季度末重新引入現金再融資。

Turning to auto. Limited vehicle inventories continued to constrain industry new car sales. However, we had our third consecutive quarter of record originations with volume up 77% from a year ago, with the majority of our originations coming from used cars. Originations also benefited from the enhancements we continue to make in our capabilities. Importantly, we are maintaining our underwriting standards and continue to be cautious about the increase in vehicle prices over the last year or so.

轉向自動。有限的汽車庫存繼續制約行業新車銷售。然而，我們連續第三個季度創紀錄的銷量比一年前增長了 77%，其中大部分來自二手車。起源也受益於我們不斷增強的能力。重要的是，我們正在維持我們的承保標準，並繼續對過去一年左右的汽車價格上漲持謹慎態度。

Turning to debit card. Transactions were relatively stable from the third quarter and up 10% from a year ago with increases across nearly all categories. Credit card point of sale purchase volume continued to be strong, was up 28% from a year ago and 11% from the third quarter. While payment rates remain elevated, balances grew 5% from a year ago due to strong purchase volume and the launch of new products. New credit card accounts more than doubled from a year ago, driven by our new active cash card, and we're pleased by the quality of the accounts we've been attracting.

轉向借記卡。與第三季度相比，交易相對穩定，比去年同期增長 10%，幾乎所有類別的交易都有所增長。信用卡銷售點購買量繼續強勁，同比增長 28%，環比第三季度增長 11%。雖然支付率仍然很高，但由於購買量強勁和新產品的推出，餘額比一年前增長了 5%。在我們新的活躍現金卡的推動下，新的信用卡賬戶比一年前增加了一倍多，我們對我們吸引的賬戶質量感到滿意。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 12. Middle Market Banking revenue increased 2% from a year ago. Results included higher deposit balances and modestly higher investment banking fees, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue increased 1% from a year ago, driven by higher net gains from equity securities and higher revenue from renewable energy investments, partially offset by lower loan balances.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的商業銀行業績。中間市場銀行業務收入同比增長 2%。結果包括較高的存款餘額和適度較高的投資銀行費用，部分被較低利率的影響所抵消。以資產為基礎的貸款和租賃收入同比增長 1%，原因是股票證券的淨收益增加和可再生能源投資的收入增加，部分被較低的貸款餘額所抵消。

Noninterest expense declined 10% from a year ago, primarily driven by lower personnel and consulting expense due to the efficiency initiatives as well as lower lease expense. Loan balances started to increase late in the third quarter and now have grown for 4 consecutive months with growth accelerating in December. As with other portfolios, we are adhering to the same credit risk appetite. Increases in the Middle Market Banking were driven by growth from our larger clients, a modest uptick in revolver utilization and strong seasonal borrowing. Growth in asset-based lending and leasing was driven by new client wins as well as increased levels from higher prices and some increases in inventory levels.

非利息費用比一年前下降了 10%，主要是由於效率舉措導致的人員和諮詢費用減少以及租賃費用減少。貸款餘額在第三季度末開始增加，現已連續 4 個月增長，12 月增長加速。與其他投資組合一樣，我們堅持同樣的信用風險偏好。中型市場銀行業務的增長是由我們大客戶的增長、左輪手槍使用率的適度上升和強勁的季節性借款推動的。基於資產的貸款和租賃的增長是由新客戶的贏得以及價格上漲和庫存水平的一些增加推動的。

Turning to Corporate Investment Banking on Slide 13. Banking revenue increased 17% from a year ago. Investment Banking had a strong quarter, with higher debt origination and advisory fees. Banking results also benefited from higher loan balances. Commercial real estate revenue grew 8% from a year ago, driven by higher loan balances and capital markets results in stronger commercial real estate financing activity. Loan originations returned to pre-pandemic levels, and we had a healthy pipeline as we started the new year.

在幻燈片 13 上轉向企業投資銀行業務。銀行業務收入比一年前增長了 17%。投資銀行業務表現強勁，債務發起和諮詢費用較高。銀行業績也受益於較高的貸款餘額。商業房地產收入比一年前增長了 8%，這是由於貸款餘額增加和資本市場導致商業房地產融資活動更加強勁。貸款發放恢復到大流行前的水平，並且我們在新的一年開始時擁有健康的渠道。

Markets revenue was relatively stable from a year ago. It was down 14% from the third quarter, primarily due to lower trading activity in spread products and equity derivatives. Average deposits in Corporate and Investment Banking were down $23.7 billion from a year ago, driven by actions taken across all lines of business to manage under the asset cap. Average loans increased from both the third quarter and a year ago across all lines of business. On a period-end basis, loans grew every month since June and growth accelerated in December.

市場收入與一年前相比相對穩定。它比第三季度下降了 14%，主要是由於價差產品和股票衍生品的交易活動減少。企業和投資銀行業務的平均存款較上年同期減少了 237 億美元，這得益於所有業務部門採取的資產上限管理措施。所有業務領域的平均貸款均較第三季度和一年前有所增加。從期末來看，自 6 月以來貸款逐月增長，12 月增速加快。

Wealth and Investment Management on Slide 14. The revenue grew 6% from a year ago as higher asset-based fees and market valuations more than offset a decline in net interest income due to lower interest rates. The 5% increase in expenses from a year ago was primarily driven by higher revenue-related compensation, which was more than offset by higher revenue. This increase was partially offset by lower salaries expense, reflecting progress on efficiency initiatives. Client assets reached a record $2.2 trillion, up 9% from a year ago, primarily driven by higher market valuations. Average deposits were up 7% from a year ago and average loans increased 5% from a year ago, driven by continued momentum in securities-based lending.

幻燈片 14 上的財富和投資管理。收入同比增長 6%，原因是基於資產的費用和市場估值的增加抵消了利率下降導致的淨利息收入下降。與一年前相比，費用增加了 5%，主要是由於與收入相關的薪酬增加，這被收入增加所抵消。這一增長被較低的工資支出部分抵消，反映了效率舉措的進展。客戶資產達到創紀錄的 2.2 萬億美元，同比增長 9%，主要受市場估值上漲的推動。受證券貸款持續增長的推動，平均存款同比增長 7%，平均貸款同比增長 5%。

Slide 15 highlights our corporate results. Revenue increased from a year ago, driven by strong results in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses and gains on the sales of our Corporate Trust Services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management. These businesses contributed $1.6 billion of revenue in 2021, excluding net gains on sale and $1.5 billion of noninterest expense. We expect approximately $200 million of these expenses associated with transition services agreements to remain in 2022, with offsetting revenue so it's P&L neutral. We also expect approximately $300 million of corporate overhead expenses related to these businesses to remain in 2022, which we expect to manage down over time.

幻燈片 15 突出顯示了我們的公司業績。由於我們的附屬風險投資和私募股權業務的強勁業績以及我們的企業信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理的銷售收益，收入比一年前有所增加。這些業務在 2021 年貢獻了 16 億美元的收入，不包括銷售淨收益和 15 億美元的非利息支出。我們預計與過渡服務協議相關的這些費用中約有 2 億美元將在 2022 年保留，並抵消收入，因此它是損益中性的。我們還預計，與這些業務相關的大約 3 億美元的公司管理費用將在 2022 年保持不變，我們預計隨著時間的推移會有所下降。

Turning now to our expectations for 2022, starting with net interest income on Slide 16. As the last couple of weeks have demonstrated, it's challenging this early in the year to predict the rate environment, loan demand and other variables that impact net interest income for the full year. But let me highlight the key drivers of our net interest income for 2022.

現在轉向我們對 2022 年的預期，從幻燈片 16 上的淨利息收入開始。正如過去幾週所表明的那樣，在今年年初預測利率環境、貸款需求和其他影響淨利息收入的變量是一項挑戰全年。但讓我強調一下我們 2022 年淨利息收入的主要驅動因素。

We are assuming the asset cap will remain in place throughout 2022, moving left to right on the waterfall. As we have discussed previously, we have a headwind this year from the runoff of PPP and EPBO loans. However, our current outlook loans is for average balances to grow low to mid-single digits from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022, along with other balance sheet mix changes, this is expected to more than offset that headwind. This net result would increase net interest income approximately 3% in 2022 from the $35.8 billion we generated in 2021.

我們假設資產上限將在整個 2022 年保持不變，在瀑布上從左到右移動。正如我們之前所討論的，今年 PPP 和 EPBO 貸款的流失給我們帶來了不利影響。然而，我們目前的展望貸款是為了讓平均餘額從 2021 年第四季度到 2022 年第四季度增長到中個位數，以及其他資產負債表組合變化，預計這將抵消這一逆風。這一淨結果將使我們在 2021 年產生的 358 億美元的淨利息收入在 2022 年增加約 3%。

Moving to rates and repricing. The recent forward curve includes approximately three 25 basis point rate hikes this year beginning in May. Assuming this were to play out, net interest income has the potential to grow up to an additional 5%, resulting in approximately 8% net interest income growth in 2022 versus 2021. That said, the implied forward curve has changed a lot over the last 1.5 months, so it's very hard to forecast with any certainty.

轉向費率和重新定價。最近的遠期曲線包括今年從 5 月開始的大約 3 次 25 個基點的加息。假設這種情況發生，淨利息收入有可能額外增長 5%，導致 2022 年與 2021 年相比淨利息收入增長約 8%。也就是說，隱含的遠期曲線在過去發生了很大變化1.5 個月，因此很難準確預測。

Another way to view our asset sensitivity is from the disclosure we provided in our third quarter 10-Q filing. It showed that the estimated impact of our -- of an instantaneous 50 basis points increase in short-term rates would increase net interest income by approximately $2.7 billion over the next 12 months. Ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earn in 2022 will depend on a variety of factors, including the absolute level of interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, loan demand and cash redeployment.

查看我們資產敏感性的另一種方法是從我們在第三季度 10-Q 文件中提供的披露。它表明，短期利率瞬時上調 50 個基點的估計影響將在未來 12 個月內增加約 27 億美元的淨利息收入。最終，我們在 2022 年賺取的淨利息收入金額將取決於多種因素，包括利率的絕對水平、收益率曲線的形狀、貸款需求和現金重新部署。

Now turning to expenses on Slide 17. We made progress last year on our efficiency initiatives and we continue to identify new opportunities. Our portfolio of initiatives that includes realized and identified potential gross saves has grown from approximately $8 billion to $10 billion, and we are continuing to work across the company. We expect to execute on our remaining identified initiatives over the next 2 to 3 years, and we'll continue to invest across our businesses. Importantly, similar to last year, we are excluding from our efficiency initiatives the resources needed to address our risk and control work, and we'll continue to add resources as necessary to complete this important work.

現在轉向幻燈片 17 的費用。去年，我們在效率舉措方面取得了進展，我們繼續尋找新的機會。我們的計劃組合（包括已實現和已確定的潛在總節省）已從大約 80 億美元增長到 100 億美元，我們將繼續在整個公司範圍內開展工作。我們預計在未來 2 到 3 年內執行我們剩餘的已確定計劃，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務。重要的是，與去年類似，我們從效率計劃中排除了解決風險和控制工作所需的資源，我們將繼續根據需要增加資源以完成這項重要工作。

We've been reducing expenses across our businesses, but let me highlight a few examples of the progress we made last year. We eliminated management layers and increased span of control with a 20% decrease in managers with low span of control. We completed approximately 270 branch consolidations in 2021, a continuation of the progress we've made the last few years with branches down 11% since 2019. We've also optimized branch staffing levels to better reflect our customers or how our customers are using our branches.

我們一直在減少我們業務的開支，但讓我強調一下我們去年取得的進展的幾個例子。我們消除了管理層並增加了控制範圍，控制範圍較小的管理人員減少了 20%。我們在 2021 年完成了大約 270 家分支機構合併，延續了我們過去幾年取得的進展，分支機構自 2019 年以來下降了 11%。我們還優化了分支機構的人員配備水平，以更好地反映我們的客戶或我們的客戶如何使用我們的分支機構。

Within our technology organization, we reduced nonengineering roles by approximately 40%, driven by accelerated adoption of the agile framework. And headcount across the company declined approximately 6% from a year ago, excluding divested businesses. In addition to reducing the number of branches, we also reduced our office real estate portfolio by approximately 7% and occupancy expense was down 9% compared with a year ago. This year, we expect to continue to realize savings from these initiatives, including an incremental 5% reduction in office real estate. Additionally, the investments we're making in technology should drive improvements in operations, consumer banking, consumer lending, commercial banking. Importantly, these efforts should not only reduce expenses but also improve the customer experience with enhanced fraud detection, more service self-service capabilities and faster underwriting decisions.

在我們的技術組織內，由於敏捷框架的加速採用，我們將非工程角色減少了大約 40%。整個公司的員工人數比一年前下降了大約 6%，不包括剝離的業務。除了減少分支機構的數量外，我們還將辦公房地產組合減少了約 7%，與一年前相比，入住費用下降了 9%。今年，我們預計將繼續通過這些舉措實現節省，包括將辦公空間減少 5%。此外，我們在技術方面的投資應該會推動運營、消費銀行業務、消費貸款和商業銀行業務的改善。重要的是，這些努力不僅應該減少開支，而且應該通過增強的欺詐檢測、更多的服務自助服務能力和更快的承保決策來改善客戶體驗。

Now turning to our 2022 expense outlook on Slide 18. Following the waterfall from left to right, we reported $53.8 billion of noninterest expense in 2021. This was largely in line with our most recent guidance, except for higher operating losses. We had approximately $500 million of expenses in 2021 related to business exits and restructuring charges and the civil money penalty associated with the OCC enforcement action in September. We also had approximately $1 billion of expenses in 2021 from the Wells Fargo Asset Management and our Corporate Trust Services business, which were sold and that will not continue in 2022.

現在轉向我們在幻燈片 18 上的 2022 年支出展望。按照從左到右的瀑布，我們報告了 2021 年 538 億美元的非利息支出。這在很大程度上符合我們最近的指導，除了更高的經營虧損。 2021 年，我們有大約 5 億美元的費用與業務退出和重組費用以及與 9 月 OCC 執法行動相關的民事罰款有關。 2021 年，我們還從富國銀行資產管理和我們的企業信託服務業務中獲得了大約 10 億美元的費用，這些費用已被出售，並且在 2022 年不會繼續。

So we believe a good starting point for the discussion of 2022 expenses is the $52.3 billion. We are assuming a modest increase in equity markets this year and expect revenue-related expenses to grow by approximately $300 million. This includes expected increases in Wealth and Investment Management and Corporate Investment Banking, partially offset by expected declines in home lending, reflecting lower origination volumes. Higher revenue-related compensation is a good thing, and the associated revenue will more than offset any increase in expenses.

因此，我們認為討論 2022 年費用的一個很好的起點是 523 億美元。我們假設今年股票市場溫和增長，並預計與收入相關的費用將增長約 3 億美元。這包括財富和投資管理以及企業投資銀行業務的預期增長，部分被住房貸款的預期下降所抵消，這反映了較低的發起量。與收入相關的更高薪酬是一件好事，相關收入將遠遠抵消任何費用的增加。

We also expect approximately $500 million of wage and benefits-related inflationary increases in 2022 above and beyond the normal level of merit and pay increases, driven by higher personnel expenses, including the minimum wage increase that Charlie highlighted and other compensation changes. Through our efficiency initiatives, we expect to realize approximately $3.3 billion of gross expense reductions from 2022. This reduction is expected to be partially offset by approximately $1.2 billion of incremental investments primarily related to higher personnel in expenses in commercial banking, corporate and investment banking and technology as well as increased spending on risk management.

我們還預計，由於人事費用增加，包括查理強調的最低工資增長和其他薪酬變化，2022 年與工資和福利相關的通脹增長將超過和超過正常的績效和薪酬增長水平。通過我們的效率舉措，我們預計從 2022 年起將實現約 33 億美元的總費用削減。預計這一減少將被約 12 億美元的增量投資部分抵消，這些投資主要與商業銀行、企業和投資銀行以及技術以及增加風險管理支出。

We also expect approximately $500 million in increased spending in other areas, including higher FDIC insurance assessments, higher travel and entertainment expenses, which were significantly lower in 2021 due to the pandemic. Accordingly, our full year 2022 expenses are expected to be approximately $51.5 billion, a net reduction of approximately $800 million versus the $52.3 billion. Embedded in our assumptions are approximately $1.3 billion of operating losses for 2022, which is the amount we had in 2021, excluding the $250 million associated with the OCC enforcement action. While we've made significant progress on working through legacy issues, as we've previously disclosed, we still have outstanding litigation and regulatory issues, and related expenses could significantly exceed the levels we had in 2021.

我們還預計其他領域的支出將增加約 5 億美元，包括更高的 FDIC 保險評估、更高的旅行和娛樂費用，由於大流行，這些費用在 2021 年顯著降低。因此，我們 2022 年全年的支出預計約為 515 億美元，與 523 億美元相比淨減少約 8 億美元。我們的假設中包含 2022 年約 13 億美元的運營虧損，這是我們在 2021 年的數額，不包括與 OCC 執法行動相關的 2.5 億美元。儘管我們在解決遺留問題方面取得了重大進展，但正如我們之前披露的那樣，我們仍然存在未決的訴訟和監管問題，相關費用可能大大超過我們在 2021 年的水平。

We made substantial progress last year in executing our efficiency initiatives, but we still have significant opportunity to get more efficient across the company. We are focused on achieving net expense reductions while appropriately investing in our businesses. This remains a multiyear process, with the ultimate goal of achieving an efficiency ratio in line with our peers and based on our business mix. We'll now take your questions.

去年，我們在執行效率計劃方面取得了重大進展，但我們仍有很大的機會提高整個公司的效率。我們專注於實現淨費用減少，同時適當地投資於我們的業務。這仍然是一個多年的過程，最終目標是根據我們的業務組合實現與同行一致的效率比率。我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question of the day will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mike, I was wondering if you could give us some sense of if the asset cap remains in place, how much capacity do you have to grow loans? Obviously, the H8 data is picking up. It feels like loan growth is getting better for the industry. I just want to make sure that you're invited to that party and you guys can grow loans while staying under the asset cap.

邁克，我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解資產上限是否仍然存在，您有多少能力來增加貸款？顯然，H8 數據正在回升。感覺該行業的貸款增長正在好轉。我只是想確保你被邀請參加那個聚會，你們可以在保持資產上限的同時增加貸款。

Yes. John, thanks for the question. So just as you know, and I think it's implicit in what you asked, but the constraint for us on the asset cap is really on the deposit side. And so that's the part where we're actively taking action to make sure we've got the room we need to -- particularly for our retail clients and we're continuing to do that. On the loan side, we still have -- we're not constrained on growth on the loan side so we still have plenty of room to continue to grow with our clients.

是的。約翰，謝謝你的問題。所以正如你所知，我認為這隱含在你所問的內容中，但我們對資產上限的限制實際上是在存款方面。所以這就是我們積極採取行動以確保我們有我們需要的空間的部分 - 特別是對於我們的零售客戶，我們將繼續這樣做。在貸款方面，我們仍然有 - 我們不受貸款方面的增長限制，因此我們仍然有足夠的空間繼續與我們的客戶一起成長。

And could you give us some sense, in your NII outlook, what kind of loan growth you're building in and also liquidity deployment assumptions and how you're thinking about liquidity deployment, given where the curve is here?

您能否在您的 NII 前景中給我們一些意義，您正在建立什麼樣的貸款增長以及流動性部署假設以及您如何考慮流動性部署，考慮到曲線在哪裡？

Yes, sure. Embedded in -- on Slide 16, we've assumed a kind of low to mid-single-digit growth when you compare fourth quarter '21 to fourth quarter '22. And so hopefully, we're optimistic that we'll be able to get there and maybe there's certainly some scenarios where it could be -- it could grow faster than that, but that's the assumption that we use there. Embedded in that column, too on the chart in the loan growth and other balance sheet stuff is some modest redeployment into the securities portfolio, I'd say modest so sort of single -- kind of mid- to low single digit sort of increases in the securities portfolio as well. And so those are the assumptions embedded there. And I think as we look at where the curve is today, we're still being, overall, pretty prudent and patient, but we are in a very kind of small way, beginning to buy some securities in the portfolio.

是的，當然。嵌入 - 在幻燈片 16 上，當您將 21 年第四季度與 22 年第四季度進行比較時，我們假設了一種低到中個位數的增長。因此，希望我們對能夠實現這一目標持樂觀態度，也許在某些情況下可能會出現這種情況——它的增長速度可能會比這更快，但這是我們在那裡使用的假設。在該列中，在貸款增長和其他資產負債表的圖表中，也嵌入了對證券投資組合的適度重新部署，我會說適度的單一 - 中低個位數的增長證券投資組合也是如此。所以這些是嵌入其中的假設。而且我認為，當我們觀察今天的曲線時，總體而言，我們仍然非常謹慎和耐心，但我們以一種非常小的方式開始購買投資組合中的一些證券。

The next question will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Mike, you had mentioned that where you did a little bit better last year, $4 billion of gross saves versus what you originally thought at $3.6 billion, and you just commented that you still have a good line of sight as far as efficiency initiatives. Can you help us understand, like $3.3 billion for this year, how you're feeling about that? But more importantly, that line of sight, how far out do you have that? And do you continue to see an ability to take out this type of cost as you go forward even past this year?

邁克，你曾提到去年你做得更好一點，總節省 40 億美元，而你最初認為的為 36 億美元，你剛剛評論說，就效率舉措而言，你仍然有很好的視野。你能幫助我們了解一下，比如今年的 33 億美元，你對此有何感受嗎？但更重要的是，那視線，你有多遠？即使在今年過去了，你是否繼續看到有能力消除這種類型的成本？

Yes. No. And Ken, what we're really trying to do is make sure we embed this in the DNA of how we operate the place, and so that's ultimately what's going to be really important for us over the long run. And I think you're seeing that. The portfolio grew from $8 billion to $10 billion in terms of the initiatives that we've either executed on or about -- or in the process of executing. And so I think you're seeing sort of that progress and growth there.

是的。不。肯，我們真正想做的是確保我們將其嵌入到我們如何運營這個地方的 DNA 中，所以從長遠來看，這最終對我們來說非常重要。我想你看到了。就我們已經執行或即將執行或正在執行的計劃而言，該投資組合從 80 億美元增長到 100 億美元。所以我認為你在那裡看到了這種進步和增長。

So you can sort of do the math of what we've accomplished so far, what we've identified for this year and what's left for next year. And I continue to believe that we've got more to do that we haven't sort of built into that portfolio yet. And so the team continues to work on that every day. As you look at our confidence level on the $3.3 billion that we put into the forecast, we feel good. We've got really good line of sight. And I think given what the team was able to do last year, we have confidence that we'll be able to execute on that.

所以你可以算一下我們到目前為止已經完成的事情，我們今年確定的事情以及明年剩下的事情。而且我仍然相信我們還有更多工作要做，我們還沒有將其納入該投資組合。所以團隊每天都在繼續努力。當您看到我們對預測中的 33 億美元的信心水平時，我們感覺很好。我們的視線非常好。而且我認為考慮到團隊去年能夠做到的事情，我們有信心能夠在這方面執行。

Let me just add to something that Mike said, which is I'm always -- I'm a firm believer on these efficiency initiatives, especially in a company like this. Even if you go back over a decade, one of the strengths of this company was never efficiency. It was far more on the revenue side. And so as we get the efficiencies that we're starting to see, it is like peeling the onion back, where then the next set of opportunities become even clearer.

讓我補充一下邁克所說的話，那就是我一直——我堅信這些效率舉措，尤其是在這樣的公司。即使你回到十多年前，這家公司的優勢之一從來都不是效率。在收入方面要多得多。因此，當我們獲得開始看到的效率時，就像剝洋蔥一樣，下一組機會變得更加清晰。

And so we're ginning up the same process that we did at the beginning of this venture where we came up with the initial $8 billion to go back and say, okay, now what's next in a very methodical way across the company. So we feel -- I feel really good about what's in our numbers for next year. And we're going to continue to pursue this. And I think it's, just as you've seen in our numbers, it gives us the ability to spend our investments and to become more efficient overall as a company. So I personally don't feel like we're close to done.

因此，我們正在啟動與我們在這個項目開始時所做的相同的過程，我們提出了最初的 80 億美元，然後回過頭來說，好吧，現在以一種非常有條理的方式在整個公司中進行下一步。所以我們覺得 - 我對我們明年的數據感覺非常好。我們將繼續追求這一點。而且我認為，正如您在我們的數字中看到的那樣，它使我們能夠花費我們的投資並提高公司整體效率。所以我個人覺得我們還沒有接近完成。

Got it. And if I could just ask the other side of that question too, which is that you're doing a little less in the incremental investments versus what you did last year. How do you get comfortable that you're doing enough, especially what we're hearing from the industry pressures, not just inflation but just on the need to continue to, and you mentioned this, Charlie, about all the new things you're rolling out? But how do you land on that number? And how do you get the confidence that it's the right amount that you're reinvesting?

知道了。如果我也可以問這個問題的另一面，那就是與去年相比，你在增量投資方面做得更少。您如何對自己做得足夠好感到自在，尤其是我們從行業壓力中聽到的信息，不僅是通貨膨脹，而且只是需要繼續下去，查理，您提到了這一點，關於您的所有新事物推出？但是你如何登陸這個數字呢？您如何確信您的再投資金額是正確的？

Yes, it's a good question. I think we do I think what most good companies do, which is they sit around tables and they ask everyone to come back with what you want to spend money on and then figure out what you can actually do. I think we are -- we've accomplished a tremendous amount on the technology side since Saul Van Beurden, who runs technology for us, was brought in. And I think we're going to try and spend as much as we physically can get done.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為我們做到了，我認為大多數優秀的公司都在做，那就是他們圍坐在桌子旁，他們要求每個人都帶著你想花錢的東西回來，然後弄清楚你實際上可以做什麼。我認為我們是 - 自從為我們負責技術的 Saul Van Beurden 被引入以來，我們在技術方面取得了巨大的成就。我認為我們將盡可能多地嘗試和花費完畢。

But I think we're always asking the question of what's next. But I think the different position that we're in versus others is we're still in the ramping-up stage, which I also look at as opportunity because we have moved slower historically investing in some of these areas. And to the extent that we find more efficiency money, it gives us the opportunity to spend more broadly. But I do feel -- I think we as a company, we, as a management team, do feel good about what we're investing next year relative to where we stand as a company.

但我認為我們總是在問下一步是什麼的問題。但我認為我們與其他人所處的不同位置是我們仍處於加速階段，我也將其視為機會，因為我們在其中一些領域的歷史投資速度較慢。在某種程度上，我們發現更多的效率資金，它讓我們有機會進行更廣泛的消費。但我確實覺得——我認為我們作為一家公司，作為一個管理團隊，相對於我們作為一家公司的地位，我們對明年的投資確實感覺良好。

The next question comes from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I had 2 questions. One was on the overdraft fees that you mentioned. I think you said that it was like a $700 million impact, but we look at the regulatory filings and the regulatory filings show a higher level of overdraft fee run rate like in the $1 billion kind of range. So I'm just trying to understand what -- why would it be only $700 million?

我有 2 個問題。一個是你提到的透支費用。我認為你說這就像 7 億美元的影響，但我們查看監管文件，監管文件顯示更高水平的透支費用運行率，例如在 10 億美元的範圍內。所以我只是想了解什麼——為什麼只有 7 億美元？

Well, first of all, I mean, we're not eliminating overdraft fees. We're making a series of changes that we think makes sense for the consumer. We have an account that doesn't allow overdraft but we have an account that does allow overdraft. And so we think it's got -- it's more consumer-friendly than it was in the past, but we do continue to believe that there are a substantial number of customers out there that want us to pay overdraft on their behalf after they've worked through a bunch of the buffers and benefits we're giving them, and they're willing to pay for that.

嗯，首先，我的意思是，我們不會取消透支費用。我們正在進行一系列我們認為對消費者有意義的改變。我們有一個不允許透支的帳戶，但我們有一個允許透支的帳戶。所以我們認為它得到了——它比過去對消費者更友好，但我們仍然相信有大量客戶希望我們在他們工作後代表他們支付透支費用通過我們為他們提供的大量緩沖和福利，他們願意為此付出代價。

Got it, okay. So the NSF fees will be eliminated but you'll have a different product that comes in?

明白了，好吧。所以 NSF 費用將被取消，但你會有不同的產品進來嗎？

Well, no, it's the same -- NSF fees will be eliminated entirely. Our overdraft fee will stay, but we've added a series of things such as we'll give you availability on direct deposits 2 days in advance. We'll give you an additional 24 hours after you otherwise would have been charged for an overdraft to cure it. So our overdraft fees will go down but we're still going to be providing the overdraft product and we'll still be charging for it.

嗯，不，是一樣的——NSF 費用將完全取消。我們的透支費用將保持不變，但我們已經添加了一系列內容，例如我們將提前 2 天為您提供直接存款的可用性。我們會給您額外的 24 小時，否則您將被收取透支費用來治愈它。所以我們的透支費用會下降，但我們仍將提供透支產品，我們仍將收取費用。

Okay. All right. So my bad because I thought overdraft and NSF were pretty similar, but that's not.

好的。好的。所以我很糟糕，因為我認為透支和 NSF 非常相似，但事實並非如此。

Yes, I think -- Betsy, think of the NSF fees as when you don't pay something into overdraft like a cheque and you return it, then historically, you would have charged a fee for that returned item. That's an NSF fee. The overdraft fees come into play when you actually pay something in overdraft.

是的，我認為 - Betsy，將 NSF 費用想像為當您不支付某些東西（如支票）透支並退回時，那麼從歷史上看，您會為退回的物品收取費用。那是 NSF 的費用。當您實際支付透支費用時，透支費用就會發揮作用。

Yes. Yes, I got it. Okay. So I was using too much jargon and that's my bad. All right. And then the second question is on the loan growth that you were talking about earlier in the prepared remarks and with John. LIBOR is no longer able to be used as a reference rate for C&I or CRE or any loan or any product rights starting Jan 1. How does that impact you? Is that -- could that be a benefit to your loan growth in C&I and CRE? And how are you thinking about shifting the reference rate that you're going to be using with your clients?

是的。是的，我知道了。好的。所以我用了太多的行話，那是我的錯。好的。然後第二個問題是關於你之前在準備好的評論中和約翰談到的貸款增長。從 1 月 1 日起，LIBOR 不再可用作 C&I 或 CRE 或任何貸款或任何產品權利的參考利率。這對您有何影響？這是否對您在 C&I 和 CRE 的貸款增長有好處？您如何考慮改變您將與客戶一起使用的參考利率？

Well, I mean, we've started that shift already as you would imagine, right? And we started -- we stopped offering new -- effectively stopped offering new LIBOR-based loan products in the -- at some point in the fourth quarter. We've probably done, in the wholesale side, maybe including WIM, so take out the consumer mortgage business, we've done something like 4,500 or just under that new facilities based on SOFR, with the large majority -- and obviously, there's different ways to calculate SOFR, the large majority of those are using sort of a daily simple rate. So if SOFR moves, obviously, that will adjust.

好吧，我的意思是，正如你想像的那樣，我們已經開始了這種轉變，對吧？我們開始 - 我們停止提供新的 - 實際上停止提供新的基於 LIBOR 的貸款產品 - 在第四季度的某個時候。在批發方面，我們可能已經完成了，可能包括 WIM，所以去掉消費者抵押貸款業務，我們已經完成了大約 4,500 個或基於 SOFR 的新設施，其中絕大多數 - 顯然，有計算 SOFR 的不同方法，其中絕大多數都使用每日簡單費率。因此，如果 SOFR 移動，顯然，那將會調整。

And so I think we're seeing clients start to get used to it and start to use it. Complementing what we're doing on the wholesale side is we've got -- we've stopped offering LIBOR-based ARMs last year. And so we've got, I don't know, tens of thousands -- a couple of tens of thousands at this point in terms of ARMs on the books using SOFR there as well. And so I think it's starting to take hold.

所以我認為我們看到客戶開始習慣並開始使用它。補充我們在批發方面所做的事情是我們已經擁有 - 我們去年停止提供基於 LIBOR 的 ARM。所以我們有，我不知道，數以萬計——就目前使用 SOFR 的書籍上的 ARM 而言，有幾萬。所以我認為它開始佔據上風。

Yes, I was just thinking like the capital markets might not be deep enough yet to be competitive against SOFR or product at least for the first half of this year. So could that give you a little advantage here in originating?

是的，我只是在想，至少在今年上半年，資本市場可能還不夠深入，無法與 SOFR 或產品競爭。那麼這能給你帶來一點優勢嗎？

I don't see that having a huge impact on loan growth but maybe we'll be surprised a little bit, but I don't see that happening.

我認為這不會對貸款增長產生巨大影響，但也許我們會感到有點驚訝，但我認為不會發生這種情況。

All right, because I didn't think the CLO bid was there yet for SOFR.

好吧，因為我認為 SOFR 還沒有 CLO 出價。

Yes. I guess I don't see that happening. I think there are starting to be some CLOs and SOFR, but like I don't see that happen being a big driver.

是的。我想我看不到這種情況發生。我認為開始有一些 CLO 和 SOFR，但我認為這不會成為一個大驅動因素。

The next question comes from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Mike, my first question is for you. Could you give us a sense of what deposit growth or runoff assumption you have in your 2022 NII simulation? And similarly, what kind of deposit repricing you presume?

邁克，我的第一個問題是問你的。您能否告訴我們您在 2022 年 NII 模擬中的存款增長或徑流假設？同樣，您假設哪種存款重新定價？

Yes. No, thanks, Erika. Look, as you can guess, like we're in a bit of a different spot than others, right, given our asset cap. And so we're already constrained on deposits and so we're pushing away deposits every week now. And so I don't expect this year to have much of a runoff in deposits. And if we start to see deposit levels going down, we'll stop pushing others off. And so I don't see that going to be a big driver for 2022.

是的。不，謝謝，埃里卡。看，你可以猜到，考慮到我們的資產上限，就像我們處於與其他人不同的位置一樣。所以我們已經受到存款的限制，所以我們現在每週都在推銷存款。所以我預計今年不會有太多的存款流失。如果我們開始看到存款水平下降，我們將停止推擠其他人。所以我認為這不會成為 2022 年的主要驅動力。

As you think about betas and deposit pricing assumptions, it's largely similar to what we saw the last rate cycle. But I would say that over the last 3, 4, 5 years, our deposit base has changed quite a bit. If you look at just based on the segments we are in, as a shorthand, where 57% of our deposits are in our consumer and small business banking business today. If you go back a number of years, that was probably closer to 43% or 45%.

當您考慮 beta 和存款定價假設時，它與我們看到的上一個利率週期大致相似。但我想說，在過去的 3、4、5 年中，我們的存款基礎發生了很大變化。如果您僅根據我們所處的細分市場來看，簡而言之，我們今天 57% 的存款存在於我們的消費者和小型企業銀行業務中。如果你回顧幾年，那可能接近 43% 或 45%。

And so the remixing of sort of our deposits as a result of some of the actions we've had to take will kind of lower the overall beta for the first number of rate hikes. But I think it will look pretty similar to what we saw. And as you can imagine, since we're constrained on growing deposits, we're not going to be the leader on pricing likely as we go over the next number of quarters.

因此，由於我們不得不採取的一些行動，我們的存款類型的重新組合將降低第一次加息的整體貝塔係數。但我認為它看起來與我們所看到的非常相似。正如您可以想像的那樣，由於我們受到存款增長的限制，因此在接下來的幾個季度中，我們可能不會成為定價的領導者。

And just to clarify, so the betas in the last cycle, if I remember, were driven by a handful of CIB deposits, right? Clearly, that has been pushed out, given assets -- some of that has been pushed out, given asset cap restrictions. So embedded in this NII number is the experience of the last cycle that included the betas contributed by those deposits, whereas as we actually look out today, you have a much better and less rate-sensitive deposit base.

澄清一下，如果我記得的話，上一個週期的 beta 是由少數 CIB 存款推動的，對吧？顯然，考慮到資產，這已經被推出了——考慮到資產上限限制，其中一些已經被推出。因此，在這個 NII 數字中嵌入的是上一個週期的經驗，其中包括這些存款貢獻的 beta，而正如我們今天實際看到的那樣，你的存款基礎要好得多，而且對利率不那麼敏感。

For sure. And the betas might be similar on the CIB deposits. We just have less of them as a percentage of the overall book, which lowers our overall beta.

當然。 CIB存款的貝塔值可能相似。我們只是在整本書中的百分比較少，這降低了我們的整體測試版。

Just the mix.

只是混合。

Yes, so -- but we'll see. And a lot of that will be driven by what we see in the competitive environment, right? So particularly on those wholesale deposits, but it will have a smaller impact on us than it did in the past, just given the mix.

是的，所以 - 但我們會看到。其中很大一部分將由我們在競爭環境中看到的驅動，對吧？因此，尤其是在那些批發存款方面，但考慮到混合情況，它對我們的影響將比過去小。

Understood. And my last question is for Charlie. I think your investors are receiving very warmly what you and Mike have said about you're trying to change how this bank is thinking by constantly identifying cost saves to fund future investments. And as we look out in what looks like a more favorable rate backdrop and revenue backdrop, from a growth perspective for banks, do you see yourself reinvesting more of the identified savings as we enter a more favorable revenue backdrop?

明白了。我的最後一個問題是針對查理的。我認為您的投資者非常熱情地接受了您和邁克所說的關於您試圖通過不斷確定成本節省來為未來投資提供資金來改變這家銀行的思維方式。從銀行增長的角度來看，當我們看到看起來更有利的利率背景和收入背景時，您是否認為自己在進入更有利的收入背景時將更多已確定的儲蓄再投資？

I don't think -- I guess the way I'd put it is we don't think about it relative to what the rate scenario is or how much we're making in NII. I think, again, just think about where we are in the stage of our evolution, which is we're limiting our investments based upon just what can physically be done, not based upon how much we actually want to spend. I mean, there are always a couple of small places around the place where people want to spend and you do have to prioritize.

我不認為 - 我想我的說法是，我們不會考慮相對於利率情景或我們在 NII 中的收入。我想，再一次，想想我們在進化階段的哪個階段，我們正在限制我們的投資，只是基於物理上可以做的事情，而不是基於我們實際想要花多少錢。我的意思是，人們想要消費的地方總是有幾個小地方，你必須優先考慮。

I think a lot of the answer to your question will have to do, as we continue to do our work strategically, to determine where we want to create additional capabilities across the company, we would expect the investment number to grow for sure. But also, as you know, we're spending a lot of money on infrastructure. And I'm not talking about the risk build-out. I'm just talking about the basic infrastructure of the company.

我認為您的問題的很多答案都必須做，因為我們繼續戰略性地開展工作，以確定我們希望在整個公司中創造更多能力的地方，我們預計投資數量肯定會增長。而且，如您所知，我們在基礎設施上投入了大量資金。而且我不是在談論風險增加。我只是在談論公司的基本基礎設施。

So I think as we sit here today, we still think that we have an opportunity to both become much more efficient and to continue to grow the level of investments that are going to drive business results inside the company. And that's, I would say, is focused upon where we think we need to get to relative to how much money we should be spending as a company as opposed to any upside that we had because of just the change in rates at this point.

所以我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們仍然認為我們有機會提高效率並繼續提高將推動公司內部業務成果的投資水平。我想說的是，這關注於我們認為我們需要達到的目標，相對於我們作為一家公司應該花多少錢，而不是因為此時利率的變化，我們所擁有的任何上行空間。

Got it.

知道了。

And (inaudible) I just think for us, that just -- it takes the pressure off of us to think that if we were to think that way. If we were to say, okay, because if nothing we've done, rates have gone up, we then start spending a lot more money. We're still in this -- as I said earlier, we're still in this phase of challenging ourselves to become as efficient as we should be. And that -- having that pressure across the company at this stage for us is still a good thing, just as it is to challenge people to come up with where we should be investing.

並且（聽不清）我只是為我們考慮，如果我們要那樣想，就可以減輕我們的壓力。如果我們說，好吧，因為如果我們什麼都沒做，利率就會上漲，那麼我們就會開始花更多的錢。我們仍然處於這個階段——正如我之前所說，我們仍然處於挑戰自己以達到我們應有的效率的階段。而且，在現階段對我們來說，在整個公司承受壓力仍然是一件好事，就像挑戰人們提出我們應該投資的地方一樣。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

So I wanted to ask about the asset cap. And can you just remind us like where you are in the process from your perspective? Have you implemented everything that you submitted in your proposal and it's just a matter of consistently executing on those changes? Or are there still, call it, material changes that you're making to address those issues?

所以我想問一下資產上限。你能從你的角度提醒我們你在這個過程中的位置嗎？您是否實施了您在提案中提交的所有內容，而這只是持續執行這些更改的問題？或者，您是否還在為解決這些問題而做出重大改變？

Matt, I understand you're very consistent in wanting to know the answer and I certainly appreciate that. We have, across all of this regulatory work, we still have a substantial amount to do. It's really not right for me to talk about under any specific consent order where we think we are in the process because, again, what I said ultimately is what's going to matter is whether our regulators believe it's done to their satisfaction. And it's really unhealthy to get into the game of do we think we're done? Do we think they're making the right conclusions?

馬特，我知道你一直想知道答案，我當然很感激。在所有這些監管工作中，我們仍有大量工作要做。在我們認為我們正在處理的任何特定同意令下談論對我來說真的是不正確的，因為我再次說的是，最終重要的是我們的監管機構是否相信它已經讓他們滿意了。進入我們認為我們已經完成的遊戲真的很不健康嗎？我們認為他們得出了正確的結論嗎？

I think it's on us to continue to do all that's necessary. And when they're comfortable that we've satisfied those obligations, they will make that determination. And so I just -- again, I'm sorry. I understand why you seek more detail, but it's just a difficult thing and probably not the right thing for us to get to that level of specificity.

我認為我們有責任繼續做所有必要的事情。當他們對我們已經履行了這些義務感到滿意時，他們就會做出決定。所以我只是 - 再次，我很抱歉。我理解你為什麼要尋求更多細節，但這只是一件困難的事情，對我們來說可能不是正確的事情來達到那種特殊程度。

I appreciate that. And I know I ask this line of question kind of every quarter, but obviously, it's such a key part for the stock. And I know I've also asked this kind of follow-up question. I think you have like a slew of local regulators on site or at least on site virtually. But I think there's a perception that it's kind of more of the central regulators that are kind of going to be the ones that make the call. And just remind us, in general, what is like the frequency of the dialogue with some more of those central regulators? And just any flavor you can add on the communication there?

我很感激。而且我知道我每個季度都會問這樣的問題，但顯然，這對股票來說是一個如此關鍵的部分。我知道我也問過這類後續問題。我認為您在現場或至少在現場虛擬地擁有大量本地監管機構。但我認為有一種看法是，更多的中央監管機構將成為做出決定的人。只是提醒我們，總的來說，與更多中央監管機構進行對話的頻率如何？您可以在那裡的交流中添加任何風味嗎？

I think it's fair that I think I would speak for most big banks, that the level of dialogue with both local staff and with D.C. is substantial and meaningful. I mean, I can just tell you, even from my last role, it's the right thing to do. Again, we certainly have increased, I think, the level of dialogue that we have since the new team has gotten here. And it's hard to put specific how often we do it.

我認為我認為我會為大多數大銀行發言是公平的，與當地員工和華盛頓特區的對話水平是實質性和有意義的。我的意思是，我可以告訴你，即使從我上一個角色開始，這是正確的做法。同樣，我認為，自從新團隊來到這里以來，我們的對話水平當然有所提高。很難具體說明我們多久做一次。

But it's very, very regular. And I think it's true that all of the big banks, both the local staff as well as the staff in D.C. are both extremely important in their monitoring and the way they draw conclusions about the company. And we worked hard to treat both extremely respectfully. There's a very direct and open communication on their side as far as I can tell. And as I said, we say the same to the local people as we do to the D.C. staff.

但它非常非常有規律。而且我認為所有大銀行，無論是當地員工還是華盛頓特區的員工，在他們的監控和他們對公司得出結論的方式上都非常重要。我們努力工作以非常尊重地對待他們。據我所知，他們有非常直接和開放的溝通。正如我所說，我們對當地人說的和對華盛頓特區工作人員說的一樣。

But again, they're a very, very important part of the journey that we're on. And we want them to be as knowledgeable about what's going on here on all of these important issues. And we're always available and willing to have those conversations with them.

但同樣，它們是我們正在進行的旅程中非常非常重要的一部分。我們希望他們對所有這些重要問題上發生的事情一樣了解。我們隨時待命並願意與他們進行這些對話。

The next question comes from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Mike, I wanted to ask in a little bit more detail about rate positioning. I think I can figure this out mostly from your guidance disclosures but would still be curious to hear your thoughts. Just with your significant asset sensitivity, can you talk a little bit about sort of where you're most sensitive on the curve and sort of when and how you'll benefit like, put simply, is the first hike, the same benefit as the third and so on? Or where is it more -- where or when is it more or less powerful?

邁克，我想更詳細地詢問利率定位。我想我可以主要從您的指導披露中弄清楚這一點，但仍然很想听聽您的想法。就您的資產敏感性而言，您能否談談您在曲線上最敏感的位置以及您何時以及如何受益，簡單地說，是第一次加息，與第一次加息相同的好處第三個等等？或者它在哪裡更強大——它在哪里或何時或多或少地強大？

Yes. And to state the obvious, probably the short end of the curve is most meaningful, right? So when you look at just the whole curve shifting up, something like 2/3 of the benefit ends up being on the short end. And so that's going to be by far the most meaningful piece of it.

是的。很明顯，曲線的短端可能是最有意義的，對吧？因此，當您只看整個曲線向上移動時，大約 2/3 的收益最終會出現在短期內。所以這將是迄今為止最有意義的部分。

I think for the first number of rate rises, it's hard to say exactly how many. I think the first 3 or 4, though, it's pretty linear. And you can use our disclosures as a way to sort of model that. You get it earlier in the -- you get it in March, it's worth a quarter or more than if you get it in June and so forth. And so it's a pretty good guide at this point to use it that way.

我認為對於第一次加息，很難說具體有多少。不過，我認為前 3 或 4 個非常線性。您可以使用我們的披露作為對其進行建模的一種方式。你早點得到它——你在三月份得到它，它比你在六月得到它值四分之一或更多，依此類推。因此，在這一點上，以這種方式使用它是一個很好的指南。

Okay, perfect. And then just separately, so one of the criticisms on the story over the past few years is been that there are a number of competitors, a lot of smaller banks out there that sort of suggest that it's still pretty easy to steal talent and business from Wells Fargo. Your emerging loan growth seems to be running kind of contrary to what's been that argument for the last couple of years. Can you just sort of touch on that criticism and sort of where you are in terms of comfort with sort of stability and growth of the workforce?

好的，完美。然後只是分開，所以過去幾年對這個故事的批評之一是有許多競爭對手，很多小型銀行都表明從那裡竊取人才和業務仍然很容易富國銀行。您新興的貸款增長似乎與過去幾年的爭論相反。你能否談談這種批評，以及你對勞動力穩定和增長的舒適度？

Yes. Listen, I feel -- we feel great about the people that we have here. And I've listened to that for quite a while since I've been here. And when I ask people for specifics, very little seems to come back. Listen, it's a very, very competitive workplace. We lose people to competition. We hire people from competition of all sizes. I think I would say, as I've said before, when you look at the team that we have in place, both at a senior level all the way down to people that we cover customers, I feel great about it.

是的。聽著，我覺得——我們對這裡的人感覺很好。自從我來到這里以來，我已經聽了很長時間了。當我向人們詢問具體情況時，似乎很少有人回來。聽著，這是一個非常非常有競爭力的工作場所。我們在競爭中失去了人。我們從各種規模的比賽中招聘人員。我想我會說，正如我之前所說，當你看到我們現有的團隊時，無論是從高層一直到我們負責客戶的人員，我都感覺很好。

And I can honestly tell you, we -- I'm trying to remember, Mike, keep me honest here, if we sat around a room and talked about, "Gee. Oh my God, look at all the people that we're losing to these smaller competitors and what are we going to do about it?" That conversation hasn't happened. And we're very knowledgeable about attrition that's happening at the company. So if a small company hires a banker, it might be a big deal for them. We're lucky enough to have a very broad set of coverage officers. But that's not to say it's not competitive. So maybe they're right, but we feel good about the people that are here, and we're going to work hard to keep the people that are here.

我可以誠實地告訴你，我們——我正在努力記住，邁克，如果我們圍坐在一個房間裡談論，“天哪，看看我們所有的人輸給這些較小的競爭對手，我們將如何應對？”那次談話沒有發生。我們非常了解公司正在發生的人員流失。因此，如果一家小公司聘請銀行家，對他們來說可能是件大事。我們很幸運擁有非常廣泛的報導官員。但這並不是說它沒有競爭力。所以也許他們是對的，但我們對這裡的人感覺很好，我們將努力留住這裡的人。

Yes. And I would just add a little color. We've been happy at what we've been able to recruit in places like the investment bank. We've hired almost a few like 2 to 3 dozen sort of relatively senior investment bankers. We've hired a bunch of people in the commercial bank on the front line. And so I think as Charlie said, it's definitely competitive. And you could always find an anecdotal story of where somebody left to go do a bigger job at a smaller place or so forth.

是的。我只想添加一點顏色。我們很高興我們能夠在投資銀行這樣的地方招聘。我們已經僱傭了差不多 2 到 3 打相對資深的投資銀行家。我們在第一線的商業銀行僱傭了一堆人。所以我認為正如查理所說，這絕對是有競爭力的。你總能找到一個軼事故事，說有人離開去一個更小的地方做更大的工作等等。

But we feel -- I think the teams feel good about being able to attract good people into the roles. And so obviously, we've got to be competitive on pay. We've got to be -- but I think people are attracted to the franchise and attracted to the sort of direction. And so far, it's been constructive there.

但我們覺得——我認為團隊對能夠吸引優秀人才擔任角色感到滿意。很明顯，我們必須在薪酬方面具有競爭力。我們必須——但我認為人們被特許經營所吸引，並被這種方向所吸引。到目前為止，它在那裡一直是建設性的。

Yes. And I just want to say one other thing, which is especially when you get down into places like the Commercial Bank and different businesses that cover consumers. As we've talked about having to improve the talent in some parts of the company, the talent that we have in those areas is really exceptional and it's really deep. And it's a huge strength of the company. It's been a strength of the company for a very long time. So again, I think that might tell you just how we think about the people that we have. And again, we never want to lose good people, but it happens. But it's not something that we worry about hurting the franchise at this point.

是的。我只想說另一件事，尤其是當你進入商業銀行和涵蓋消費者的不同業務的地方時。正如我們談到必須提高公司某些部門的人才，我們在這些領域擁有的人才非常出色，而且非常深厚。這是公司的巨大優勢。長期以來，這一直是公司的強項。再說一次，我認為這可能會告訴您我們如何看待我們擁有的人。再說一次，我們永遠不想失去好人，但它確實發生了。但這並不是我們現在擔心會傷害球隊的事情。

The next question will come from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the low single-digit to mid-single-digit loan growth assumption, can you give us a little more detail on how that breaks out among the products, either in core C&I versus commercial real estate and consumer? And then separately, are there any areas of the loan book that you're really emphasizing at this point or seeing opportunities to ramp your activity similar to what you've been doing on the credit card side?

關於低個位數到中個位數的貸款增長假設，您能否詳細介紹一下產品之間的差異，無論是核心 C&I 還是商業房地產和消費者？然後單獨地，您現在是否真正強調了貸款簿的任何領域，或者看到了增加您的活動的機會，類似於您在信用卡方面所做的事情？

Yes. Look, it's a little bit of growth really across the board, John. And I think we're seeing opportunity really everywhere. And I think if you look at -- on the card side, we are expecting to see some growth in the card side. Some of that will be like through revolve balances. Some of that will be some of the intro balances coming off the new products, which will start to really pay off at the end of next year into the year after.

是的。看，這確實是全面的增長，約翰。我認為我們到處都看到了機會。而且我認為，如果您看一下 - 在卡方面，我們預計會在卡方面看到一些增長。其中一些就像通過旋轉天平一樣。其中一些將是來自新產品的一些介紹性餘額，這些餘額將在明年年底開始真正得到回報。

We've been really happy with what we've seen in the auto space, which in this environment are pretty good assets, pretty short-lived assets and high quality in terms of what we've seen there. So we see some continued opportunity to grow there. And then on the consumer side, you have to go a little bit -- I'm sorry, on the mortgage side, you have to go a little bit below the covers. And if you look at the nonconforming space, we are seeing some growth there, which we think will continue as we go into the year. That's offset by these EPBO loans going away. But nonetheless, we see some growth there.

我們對我們在汽車領域看到的東西感到非常滿意，在這種環境下，這些資產是非常好的資產，非常短命的資產，並且就我們在那裡看到的東西而言是高質量的。因此，我們看到了一些持續增長的機會。然後在消費者方面，你必須走一點點 - 對不起，在抵押貸款方面，你必須走一點點。如果你看一下不合格的空間，我們會看到那裡的一些增長，我們認為隨著我們進入這一年，這種增長將繼續下去。這被這些 EPBO 貸款的消失所抵消。但儘管如此，我們還是看到了一些增長。

So it's really -- and I gave some color on the Commercial Banking stuff in my comments. And we do expect some more opportunity in the multifamily and apartments and asset classes like that in commercial real estate. So in places like commercial real estate, we're being really targeted about it. And even where you see a little limited growth in places like office in the quarter, and even in places like that, cash to equity ratios are up, structures are better, spreads are better, given sort of what we've -- the way we're managing that. So we're being really cautious in that space. But I do think it will be a little bit of growth across the board if we're successful.

所以真的 - 我在評論中對商業銀行業務進行了一些說明。我們確實希望在多戶家庭和公寓以及資產類別中出現更多機會，例如商業房地產。因此，在商業房地產等地方，我們確實成為了目標。即使你看到本季度像辦公室這樣的地方增長有限，即使在這樣的地方，現金與股權的比率也在上升，結構更好，利差更好，考慮到我們所擁有的 - 方式我們正在管理它。所以我們在那個領域非常謹慎。但我確實認為，如果我們成功了，這將是一個全面的增長。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then separately, on the buyback front, buybacks came a little bit better than we had expected in the fourth quarter. Maybe if you can just give us your thoughts on the outlook there and your appetite buybacks and also the -- how you're thinking about the dividend here in terms of deployment.

好，太棒了。這很有幫助。然後，在回購方面，回購情況比我們在第四季度的預期要好一些。也許你可以告訴我們你對那裡的前景和你的胃口回購的想法，以及 - 你如何考慮部署方面的股息。

Yes. Look, I think we've talked about this before, and we're maybe in a different spot than others, just given some of the constraints we have on the asset cap. But we still feel like we've got excess capital. You can see that in the numbers yourself. We do expect that we'll continue to see some loan growth. So that will drive some RWA and so that -- we've got to be thoughtful about that.

是的。看，我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題，而且我們可能處於與其他人不同的位置，只是考慮到我們對資產上限的一些限制。但我們仍然覺得我們有多餘的資本。您可以在自己的數字中看到這一點。我們確實預計我們將繼續看到一些貸款增長。所以這將推動一些 RWA，所以 - 我們必須對此進行深思熟慮。

And so as we laid out earlier last year, we said we would do at least $18 billion of buybacks through the 4-quarter period ending next -- in the second quarter. That still is achievable and we potentially have the opportunity to go above that if we decide that's the right path either this quarter or next quarter. So we'll look at sort of how we feel with all the things we got to think about and make that decision.

因此，正如我們去年早些時候提出的那樣，我們表示我們將在下一個結束的 4 季度期間（即第二季度）進行至少 180 億美元的回購。這仍然是可以實現的，如果我們在本季度或下季度確定這是正確的道路，我們可能有機會超越這一目標。因此，我們將看看我們對所有需要考慮的事情的感受並做出決定。

As you sort of think about the dividend, I think Charlie covered this a couple of times last year is, you think about a payout ratio that we hope to get to on a normalized basis to take out some of the onetime things that you see in the results, it's really kind of a 30% to 40% payout ratio is what we target over time. And that just takes some time to get there. And so I think we'll -- ultimately, that's a Board decision in terms of when and how much we increase the dividend. But we'll -- we're still marching down that path and -- but it takes some time to get there.

當您考慮股息時，我認為查理去年曾多次提到這一點，您考慮的是我們希望在正常化的基礎上達到的派息率，以消除您在其中看到的一些一次性的東西結果，隨著時間的推移，我們的目標實際上是 30% 到 40% 的派息率。這只是需要一些時間才能到達那裡。因此，我認為我們最終將由董事會決定何時以及增加多少股息。但我們會——我們仍在沿著這條路前進，而且——但到達那裡需要一些時間。

The next question comes from David Long of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 David Long。

You've talked in the past about the operating expense savings being a multiyear plan and -- or initiative. And so with your guidance this year in the $51.5 billion range, should we be expecting 2023 operating expenses to still be below that level?

您過去曾說過，節省運營費用是一項多年計劃和 - 或倡議。因此，根據您今年在 515 億美元範圍內的指導，我們是否應該預計 2023 年的運營費用仍低於該水平？

Yes. Look, at this point, as we think about it, our goal would be to see a net reduction next year. I think we'll obviously give you more guidance on how that's progressing as we get towards the end of the year. And that will be a function of what we think we can invest properly and what inflation looks like and a whole bunch of factors. But we're certainly given what our view on the efficiency side is targeting that, but we'll give you more guidance on that later in the year. I don't know if you have anything to add.

是的。看，在這一點上，當我們考慮它時，我們的目標是明年看到淨減少。我認為，隨著我們接近年底，我們顯然會為您提供更多關於進展情況的指導。這將取決於我們認為我們可以適當投資什麼、通貨膨脹是什麼樣子以及一大堆因素。但我們肯定會知道我們在效率方面的觀點是針對這個目標的，但我們將在今年晚些時候為您提供更多指導。不知道你有沒有什麼要補充的。

Okay. Great. And then as a follow-up, a little bit longer down the road, once the consent orders are mostly in the past, if you replace the cost today to improve and upgrade your internal operations with the expected cost to sort of just maintain proper controls and risk management for efforts, how much savings do you see there?

好的。偉大的。然後作為後續行動，稍長一點，一旦同意訂單大多在過去，如果你用預期成本替換今天改進和升級內部運營的成本，以保持適當的控制和努力的風險管理，你看到有多少節省？

Yes. Look, I think there is some savings there, but that's -- our focus now is getting the work done and getting all the stuff in place and making sure it's operating properly. And so we're focused a little bit -- we're being thoughtful about how we implement that stuff, but our focus is a little bit less on making it the most efficient and optimized process. So we will get there when that stuff is all done and running for a while, but it -- that's a few years off, I think, in terms of really optimizing the risk and compliance.

是的。看，我認為那裡有一些節省，但那是 - 我們現在的重點是完成工作，讓所有東西到位並確保它正常運行。所以我們有點專注——我們正在考慮如何實施這些東西，但我們的重點是讓它成為最有效和最優化的流程。因此，當這些工作全部完成並運行一段時間後，我們將到達那裡，但我認為，就真正優化風險和合規性而言，這還需要幾年時間。

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So just wanted to squeeze one more question in here just on the fee outlook. A fair amount of noise in the fee line this quarter. I know you didn't give an explicit fee guide for 2022. But as we reflect the impact of business sales, the overdraft change, some weaker mortgage banking and normalization equity gains, how should we be thinking about the right jumping-off point for fee income, just looking ahead to next quarter and '22, just more broadly?

所以只是想在這裡再提一個關於費用前景的問題。本季度的收費線有相當多的噪音。我知道你沒有給出 2022 年的明確費用指南。但是當我們反映業務銷售的影響、透支變化、一些較弱的抵押銀行業務和正常化的股權收益時，我們應該如何考慮正確的起點費用收入，只是展望下個季度和 22 年，更廣泛？

Well, I think you just outlined it, to be honest. I think you just have to take the lines, right? And I know we've talked about this on calls before. Like if you look at one of the biggest fee lines, you take the investment advisory and other asset-based fees, that's a function of our client assets and what the equity market is doing primarily. And so that's probably something that you can model.

好吧，老實說，我想你只是概述了它。我想你只需要走線，對吧？我知道我們之前在電話會議上討論過這個問題。就像如果您查看最大的費用線之一，您會收取投資諮詢和其他基於資產的費用，這是我們客戶資產的功能以及股票市場主要在做什麼。所以這可能是你可以建模的東西。

And we've got -- that grew a bit as we went through the year last year. And then I think as you said, we're in the mortgage space, we'll see some -- the fourth quarter number in the consumer side is probably a good place to start your jumping-off point and modeling. And as I think others have spoken about too is we all expect the mortgage market to be down with refinancings really driving that. And how well we do will be a function of how well we're able to sort of penetrate on the purchase side. So hopefully, we're down a little less than what the market is, but that will be a function of what we can deliver. And so I think you just got to take each of those lines and sort of model it forward.

我們已經得到了——隨著我們去年的經歷而有所增長。然後我認為正如你所說，我們在抵押貸款領域，我們會看到一些 - 消費者方面的第四季度數字可能是開始你的起點和建模的好地方。正如我認為其他人也談到的那樣，我們都預計抵押貸款市場將因再融資真正推動這一點而下跌。我們做得如何將取決於我們在購買方面的滲透能力。因此，希望我們的跌幅比市場低一點，但這將取決於我們可以提供的功能。所以我認為你只需要採取每一條線並對其進行建模。

And maybe I'll just squeeze one more in, if I can. Just on the earlier discussion around excess liquidity deployment. It looked like you deployed some of that excess in the quarter. And yet, if I look relative to pre-pandemic levels, you've still seen a doubling of excess reserves. And those deposits that you guys have on balance sheet, as you noted earlier, should be stickier as the Fed initiates (inaudible) just given some of the changes in deposit mix.

如果可以的話，也許我會再擠一個。就在前面關於過度流動性部署的討論中。看起來您在本季度部署了一些多餘的部分。然而，如果我看一下大流行前的水平，你仍然看到超額準備金翻了一番。正如你們之前提到的，你們在資產負債表上的那些存款應該更具粘性，因為美聯儲只是考慮到存款組合的一些變化（聽不清）。

I was hoping you could just size the amount of excess liquidity available for deployment today. And if the long end continues to grind higher, is there any appetite or willingness to deploy more aggressively than that mid-single-digit growth that's contemplated in the NII walk?

我希望你能確定今天可用於部署的過剩流動性數量。如果長端繼續走高，是否有比 NII 預期的中個位數增長更積極地部署的意願或意願？

Yes. I mean, the first thing we'll be looking at is how fast loans are growing, right? So obviously, that's like the place you'd want to -- you'd see that liquidity get deployed first to support customers. And so that will be a function of what we think is going to happen over a series of quarters. But -- and I think when you look at the securities portfolio, we have done a lot in the last year, both in increasing our mortgage exposure, increasing our structured product CLO exposure.

是的。我的意思是，我們首先要看的是貸款增長的速度，對吧？所以很明顯，這就像你想要的地方——你會看到首先部署流動性來支持客戶。因此，這將取決於我們認為將在一系列季度中發生的事情。但是 - 我認為，當您查看證券投資組合時，我們在去年做了很多工作，包括增加我們的抵押貸款敞口，增加我們的結構化產品 CLO 敞口。

The place that you saw the decline was really in the treasury side, and so given sort of what's happening in the rate environment. And so I think you will see us start deploying more. And as I mentioned earlier, we've started in a very small way already given sort of what we've seen over the last couple of weeks. And I think really how much -- how fast we go or how much we go will be both a function of what we think is going to happen with rates but also how fast we think loans will grow. And so those 2 things, I think, will drive sort of the pace. And at this point, embedded in our outlook or considerations there, we do expect a modest increase in the portfolio. And so we'll see how -- but we'll make that determination based on all the factors there that I mentioned.

你看到下降的地方實際上是在財政部，因此考慮到利率環境中正在發生的事情。所以我想你會看到我們開始部署更多。正如我之前提到的，我們已經從一個非常小的方式開始，已經給出了過去幾週我們所看到的。而且我認為真正有多少 - 我們走多快或走多少將既取決於我們認為利率會發生什麼，也取決於我們認為貸款增長的速度。所以這兩件事，我認為，將推動步伐。在這一點上，嵌入我們的前景或考慮因素中，我們確實預計投資組合會適度增加。因此，我們將看看如何 - 但我們將根據我提到的所有因素做出決定。

The final question for today will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

今天的最後一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Charlie, you talked about joining the Net-Zero Alliance as with some of your peers. Can you frame out for us, as you guys get deeper into that and your peers do as well, how should we try to estimate what types of risks you might be coming up against? And how do you guys monitor those risks?

查理，你和你的一些同行一樣談到了加入淨零聯盟。您能否為我們制定框架，隨著你們深入了解這一點，您的同行也這樣做，我們應該如何嘗試估計您可能會遇到哪些類型的風險？你們如何監控這些風險？

Listen, I think it's a great question. I think it's the question that everyone is asking. And I think the whole point about joining these alliances is to ensure that we're all benefiting from each other's experiences and those that have experienced this in other parts of the world to understand how to actually think about that.

聽著，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我想這是每個人都在問的問題。我認為加入這些聯盟的全部意義在於確保我們都從彼此的經驗中受益，以及那些在世界其他地方經歷過這種情況的人，以了解如何實際思考這一點。

What we're doing is we're going through how we think the impact of climate on a much longer-term basis can impact all of the different businesses from a risk perspective but also understanding where the opportunities for us are. And so whenever we talk about where we're going on climate with our goal to get to net zero, I think people too often jump to, that means we're going to stop doing things.

我們正在做的是，我們正在研究我們認為氣候的長期影響如何從風險的角度影響所有不同的業務，同時也了解我們的機會在哪裡。因此，每當我們談論我們在氣候方面的目標是實現淨零排放時，我認為人們經常跳到，這意味著我們將停止做事。

First of all, what we're trying to do is to assure that we're doing everything we can to help all of our clients transition. And that doesn't mean walking away from clients. It means helping them invest in areas, whether it is -- and we can do that in lots of different ways across the company with our own balance sheet or the public markets to invest in very, very different ways.

首先，我們要做的是確保我們正在盡一切努力幫助我們所有的客戶過渡。這並不意味著遠離客戶。這意味著幫助他們投資領域，無論是 - 我們可以通過我們自己的資產負債表或公共市場以非常非常不同的方式在整個公司進行投資。

And I think what you'll start to see from us and others is a lot more disclosure on what the embedded risks are, but also all the different things that we're doing to play our part in reducing emissions more broadly. So I just think it's a question that I think we should continue to ask as we all continue to provide more significant disclosures than we've all done in the past on the topic.

而且我認為您將開始從我們和其他人那裡看到更多關於嵌入式風險的披露，以及我們正在做的所有不同事情，以在更廣泛地減少排放方面發揮我們的作用。所以我只是認為這是一個我認為我們應該繼續提出的問題，因為我們都繼續提供比我們過去在該主題上所做的更重要的披露。

I appreciate that. And pivoting to the follow-up question on credit. Obviously, your guys' credit is fantastic like the industry, considering what we just came through. Can you give us some color on the reserve? I assume as we normalize credit, you and your peers, how should we be looking at the reserve building over the next -- in 2022 going into 2023, the loan loss reserve building, that is?

我很感激。並轉向關於信用的後續問題。顯然，考慮到我們剛剛經歷的事情，你們的信譽就像這個行業一樣棒極了。你能給我們一些關於保護區的顏色嗎？我假設當我們使信貸正常化時，您和您的同行，我們應該如何看待下一個準備金的建設——從 2022 年到 2023 年，貸款損失準備金建設，也就是說？

Well, let me start, Mike, and then you just pick up. I think the one thing I obviously, I think you guys all know this is not everyone starts at the same position when you look across what people have done with reserving across the industry. I think we feel very good about where we are relative to what we're seeing. We all have to make determinations.

好吧，讓我開始吧，邁克，然後你接電話。我想一件事我很明顯，我想你們都知道，當你看到人們在整個行業的儲備金方面所做的事情時，並不是每個人都從同一個位置開始。我認為相對於我們所看到的，我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。我們都必須做出決定。

Remember, on a forward-looking basis as to what the embedded losses are. And I think everyone's got a different point of view on that on the way that looks. And I think we're at the -- we're doing the right thing, but I still think it's our assumptions are appropriate and conservative. And beyond that, remember, the idea of looking forward in terms of what's going to change in addition to just loan growth and making sure that we provide for growth in the balance sheet. It's going to depend on the ultimate outcome of the performance of the economy.

請記住，在前瞻性的基礎上，嵌入式損失是什麼。而且我認為每個人對此都有不同的看法。而且我認為我們處於 - 我們正在做正確的事情，但我仍然認為這是我們的假設是適當和保守的。除此之外，請記住，除了貸款增長和確保我們在資產負債表中提供增長之外，還要展望未來的變化。這將取決於經濟表現的最終結果。

And so as we sit here today, we feel very, very good about it. But it can take lots of different turns. And hopefully, we're still insulated from some level of downturn from where we sit today, given the assumptions that we've made because of the uncertainty that exists in the environment. So I'm not worried about where we are in 2022 personally, but I think as we look beyond that, it's a living breathing calculation.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對此感覺非常非常好。但它可能需要很多不同的轉彎。並且希望，鑑於我們因環境中存在的不確定性而做出的假設，我們仍然不受我們今天所處的某種程度的低迷影響。所以我個人並不擔心我們在 2022 年會處於什麼位置，但我認為，當我們超越這一點時，這是一個活生生的計算。

Listen, thank you very much, everyone, for the time, and we appreciate it, and we will talk to you over the next quarter. Take care. Bye-bye.

聽著，非常感謝大家的時間，我們很感激，我們將在下個季度與您交談。小心。再見。

Thanks, everyone, for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。此時，各方可能會斷開連接。