富國銀行 (WFC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾 (John Campbell)。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo will discuss fourth quarter results and answer your questions.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，我們的執行長 Charlie Scharf；我們的財務長 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第四季度的業績並回答您的問題。

This call is being recorded.

此通話正在錄音。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our fourth quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第四季度收益資料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和簡報，可在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上取得。

I'd also like to ask you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

我還想請問您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明可能存在風險和不確定性。

Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings material.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素，其中包括今天提交的包含我們盈利材料的 8-K 表格。

Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務指標的信息，包括這些指標與 GAAP 指標的調節表，也可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件和我們網站上提供的收益資料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Let me start by acknowledging the unbelievable devastation from the Los Angeles wild fires.

首先，我要承認洛杉磯野火造成的令人難以置信的破壞。

Our hearts go out to everyone who's been affected and we're committed to helping rebuild their lives, businesses and communities.

我們的心與所有受到影響的人同在，我們致力於幫助他們重建生活、企業和社區。

I also want to thank our employees, who are working hard to support our customers, many of whom who have been impacted

我還要感謝我們的員工，他們正在努力支持我們的客戶，其中許多人都受到了影響

[sells].

[賣]。

Turning to Wells Fargo's performance.

轉向富國銀行的表現。

I'll make some brief comments about our results and update you on our priorities.

我將對我們的結果做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項的最新情況。

I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review fourth quarter results as well as our net interest income and expense expectations for 2025 before we take your questions.

然後，在回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以審查第四季度業績以及我們對 2025 年的淨利息收入和支出預期。

Let me start with some general comments.

讓我先發表一些一般性評論。

Our solid performance this quarter caps a year of significant progress for Wells Fargo across multiple areas.

我們本季的穩健表現標誌著富國銀行在多個領域取得重大進展的一年。

Our earnings profile continues to improve.

我們的獲利狀況持續改善。

We are seeing the benefits from investments we're making to increase growth and improve how we serve our customers and communities.

我們看到了我們為促進成長和改善我們為客戶和社區服務的方式而進行的投資所帶來的好處。

We maintained a strong balance sheet, we returned $25 billion of capital to shareholders, and we made significant progress on our risk and control work.

我們維持了強勁的資產負債表，向股東返還了250億美元的資本，我們的風險和控制工作取得了重大進展。

We grew net income and our diluted earnings per share was up 11% from a year ago.

我們的淨利潤成長了，稀釋後每股盈餘比一年前成長了 11%。

After I arrived, we reviewed our businesses and sold or scaled back several which reduced revenues in the shorter term and increased investments in others.

我到達後，我們審查了我們的業務，並出售或縮減了一些業務，這在短期內減少了收入，並增加了對其他業務的投資。

We also made a conscious effort to diversify revenues and reduce our reliance on net interest income.

我們也有意識地努力實現收入多元化，減少對淨利息收入的依賴。

In 2024, our strong fee-based revenue growth up 15% from a year ago, largely offset the expected decline in net interest income, reflecting these efforts.

到 2024 年，我們的收費收入強勁增長，較上年增長 15%，很大程度上抵消了淨利息收入的預期下降，反映了這些努力。

Our disciplined approach to managing expense levels has been consistent and an important part of our success.

我們管理費用水準的嚴謹方法始終如一，也是我們成功的重要組成部分。

We increased investments in areas that are important for our future and generated efficiencies to help fund those opportunities.

我們增加了對未來重要領域的投資，並提高了效率，為這些機會提供資金。

Overall, expenses declined from a year ago, benefiting from lower FDIC and severance expenses as well as the impact of our efficiency initiatives, which have helped drive headcount reductions every quarter since third quarter of 2020.

總體而言，費用較上年同期有所下降，這得益於FDIC 和遣散費的降低以及我們效率舉措的影響，這些舉措有助於推動自2020 年第三季度以來每個季度的員工人數削減。

We maintained our strong credit discipline and credit performance was relatively stable throughout the year and consistent with our expectations.

我們維持了嚴格的信用紀律，全年信用表現相對穩定，符合我們的預期。

Average loans declined throughout the year as credit card as growth in credit card balances was offset by declines in most other asset classes, reflecting weak loan demand as well as credit tightening actions.

信用卡平均貸款全年下降，因為信用卡餘額的成長被大多數其他資產類別的下降所抵消，反映出貸款需求疲軟以及信貸緊縮行動。

Average deposits grew from fourth quarter 2023, with growth in our deposit gathering businesses, enabling us to reduce higher cost CDs issued by corporate treasury.

隨著我們的存款收集業務的成長，平均存款自 2023 年第四季開始成長，使我們能夠減少企業財務部門發行的成本較高的 CD。

We've been actively returning excess capital over the past five years, and that has resulted in average common shares outstanding decreasing by 21% since fourth quarter 2019.

過去五年來，我們一直在積極返還多餘資本，這導致平均已發行普通股自 2019 年第四季以來減少了 21%。

This year, we increased our common stock dividend per share by 15% and repurchased approximately $20 billion of common stock, up 64% from a year ago.

今年，我們將每股普通股股息增加了 15%，並回購了約 200 億美元的普通股，比一年前成長了 64%。

Regarding our strategic priorities.

關於我們的戰略重點。

I'm very proud of the progress we've made on our risk and control work, and it remains our top priority and closing consent orders is an important sign of progress.

我對我們在風險和控制工作上取得的進展感到非常自豪，這仍然是我們的首要任務，關閉同意令是取得進展的重要指標。

Early last year, the OCC terminated a consent order it issued in 2016 regarding sales practices.

去年年初，OCC 終止了 2016 年發布的有關銷售行為的同意令。

The closure of disorder was an important milestone and is a confirmation that we operate much differently today.

混亂的結束是一個重要的里程碑，也證實了我們今天的運作方式大不相同。

This was the sixth consent order terminated by our regulators since I joined Wells Fargo in 2019.

這是自 2019 年我加入富國銀行以來，監理機關終止的第六份同意令。

Our operational risk and compliance infrastructure is greatly changed from when I arrived and while we are not done, I'm confident that we will successfully complete the work required in our consent orders and embed in operational risk and compliance mindset into our culture.

與我到達時相比，我們的營運風險和合規基礎設施發生了很大變化，雖然我們還沒有完成，但我相信我們將成功完成同意令中要求的工作，並將操作風險和合規思維融入我們的文化中。

Our results also show our progress on the other strategic priorities that we have.

我們的結果也顯示了我們在其他戰略重點方面取得的進展。

Improving our credit card platform is an important strategic objective, and our progress here is clear.

改善我們的信用卡平台是一個重要的策略目標，我們在這方面的進展是顯而易見的。

Since 2021, we have rolled out a total of 11 new cards, including four new consumer cards and a new small business card in 2024.

自2021年以來，我們總共推出了11張新卡，其中包括4張新的消費卡和2024年新的小型商務卡。

Our new product offerings continue to be well received by both existing customers and customers new to Wells Fargo with over 2.4 million new credit card accounts opened in 2024.

我們的新產品持續受到富國銀行現有客戶和新客戶的好評，2024 年開設了超過 240 萬個新信用卡帳戶。

We've done this while maintaining our credit standards.

我們在保持信用標準的同時做到了這一點。

The momentum in this business is also demonstrated by strong credit card spend, up over $17 billion from a year ago.

強勁的信用卡支出也證明了該業務的發展勢頭，比一年前增加了 170 億美元以上。

In our auto business, we announced a multiyear co-branded agreement where we will be the preferred purchase finance provider for Volkswagen and Audi brands, in the United States, starting in the first half of this year.

在我們的汽車業務中，我們宣布了一項多年期聯合品牌協議，從今年上半年開始，我們將成為美國大眾和奧迪品牌的首選購買融資提供者。

We continue to reposition our home lending business as we execute on the strategic direction we announced in early 2023.

在執行 2023 年初宣布的策略方向時，我們將繼續重新定位我們的房屋貸款業務。

We've reduced headcount by 47% and the amount of third-party mortgage loan service by 28% since the announcement as we continue to streamline this business.

自從該公告發布以來，我們已將員工人數減少了 47%，並將第三方抵押貸款服務金額減少了 28%，並繼續精簡這項業務。

The business is more profitable today and opportunities remain to improve.

如今，該業務的利潤更高，並且仍有改善的機會。

After several years of little to no growth, as we focused on satisfying the requirements of our consent orders, we are starting to generate growth and increase customer engagement in our consumer, small and business banking segment.

經過幾年幾乎沒有成長，由於我們專注於滿足同意令的要求，我們開始在消費者、小型和企業銀行業務領域實現成長並提高客戶參與度。

We had a more meaningful growth in net checking accounts in 2024.

2024 年，我們的支票帳戶淨額出現了更有意義的成長。

And importantly, most of that growth came in the form of more valuable primary checking accounts.

重要的是，大部分成長來自於更有價值的主要支票帳戶。

We had over 10 billion debit card transactions last year, up 2% from a year ago, the highest annual volume in our history.

去年，我們的金融卡交易量超過 100 億筆，年增 2%，是我們史上最高的年度交易量。

We accelerated our efforts to refurbish our branches, completing 730 in 2024.

加速推進據點改造，2024年完成分行改造730個。

We continue to make enhancements to our mobile app, including making it significantly easier to open accounts, and in the fourth quarter, over 40% of consumer check accounts were up additionally.

我們繼續改進我們的行動應用程序，包括顯著簡化開戶流程，第四季度超過 40% 的消費者支票帳戶數量進一步增加。

We grew mobile active customers by 1.5 million in 2024, up 5% from a year ago.

到 2024 年，我們的行動活躍客戶數量將增加 150 萬，比一年前增加 5%。

Our customers are also increasingly using Zelle, and we have over $1 billion in sales transactions in 2024, up 22% from a year ago.

我們的客戶也越來越多地使用 Zelle，2024 年我們的銷售交易額將超過 10 億美元，比一年前成長 22%。

We introduced Wells Fargo Premier to better serve our affluent clients, and we're starting to see some early benefits from the enhancements we've made.

我們推出 Wells Fargo Premier 是為了更好地服務我們的富裕客戶，並且我們開始看到我們所做的增強帶來的一些早期好處。

We increased the number of premier bankers by 8% and branch-based financial advisers by 5% from a year ago with a focus on increasing the number of bankers and advisers in top locations.

與一年前相比，我們將高級銀行家的數量增加了 8%，將分行財務顧問的數量增加了 5%，重點是增加頂級地點的銀行家和顧問的數量。

We have enhanced our customer relationship management capabilities for our bankers and advisers.

我們增強了銀行家和顧問的客戶關係管理能力。

This is increased collaboration, driving $23 billion in net asset loads since the Wealth and Investment Management Premier channel last year.

自去年財富與投資管理 Premier 頻道以來，合作的增加推動了 230 億美元的淨資產負載。

Deposit and investment balances for Premier clients grew steadily throughout the year and increased approximately 10% from a year ago.

優質客戶存款和投資餘額全年穩定成長，較去年同期成長約10%。

This remains a significant area of opportunity for us.

這對我們來說仍然是一個重要的機會領域。

Turning to our commercial business.

轉向我們的商業業務。

In the commercial bank, we're focused on adding relationship managers and business development officers in underpenetrated and growth markets to drive new client acquisition, future revenue growth, and we expect to hire even more in 2025.

在商業銀行，我們專注於在滲透率較低和成長的市場中增加關係經理和業務開發官員，以推動新客戶獲取和未來收入成長，我們預計在 2025 年僱用更多人員。

We created a strategic partnership with Centerbridge Partners and introduced overland advisers to better service our commercial bank customers with the direct lending product.

我們與 Centerbridge Partners 建立了策略合作夥伴關係，並引入了陸路顧問，以透過直接貸款產品更好地服務我們的商業銀行客戶。

We have targeted our investment banking capabilities towards our commercial banking clients.

我們將投資銀行能力的目標定位在商業銀行客戶。

We're still early in these efforts, but we're starting to see results including our investment banking market share with our commercial banking clients increasing by approximately 150 basis points in 2024, which includes helping some clients access capital markets for the first time.

我們的這些努力仍處於早期階段，但我們已經開始看到成果，包括我們在商業銀行客戶中的投資銀行市場份額到 2024 年將增加約 150 個基點，其中包括幫助一些客戶首次進入資本市場。

Additionally, we've been working closely with our clients to support their M&A activity, driving higher M&A-related revenue.

此外，我們一直與客戶密切合作，支持他們的併購活動，推動更高的併購相關收入。

The opportunity remains significant.

這個機會仍然很大。

We continue to make investments in talent and technology to strengthen corporate investment banking.

我們持續進行人才和技術投資，加強企業投資銀行業務。

More than 75 new hires joined CIB since 2019, with many of these in key convergent product groups within trading and banking and our revenue and share in many important areas has increased including in our markets business, where we've grown our US market share, including credit trading, commodities and our equity cash and derivatives business.

自2019 年以來，已有超過75 名新員工加入CIB，其中許多人在貿易和銀行領域的關鍵融合產品組工作，我們在許多重要領域的收入和份額都有所增加，包括我們的市場業務，我們在該領域增加了美國市場份額，包括信貸交易、大宗商品以及我們的股權現金和衍生性商品業務。

We also continue to make steady progress in growing our FX business with strong growth in both our institutional client base and volumes in 2024.

我們也持續穩定發展外匯業務，機構客戶群和交易量將在 2024 年實現強勁成長。

We also grew our US market share in investment banking with share gains in debt and equity capital markets and increased revenue in our advisory business in 2024.

我們還擴大了美國投資銀行市場份額，在債務和股權資本市場上取得了份額，並在 2024 年增加了諮詢業務的收入。

We entered 2025 with a solid pipeline in both Capital Markets and Advisory, while the market conditions can always change.

進入 2025 年，我們在資本市場和諮詢方面擁有堅實的管道，而市場狀況隨時可能改變。

I feel great about our progress and continue to believe we're just beginning to see the benefits of our investments.

我對我們的進步感到非常高興，並繼續相信我們才剛開始看到投資的好處。

We've also continued to exit or sell businesses that are not in sync with our strategic priorities.

我們也繼續退出或出售與我們的策略重點不同步的業務。

And last year, we entered into a definitive agreement to sell the non-agency third-party servicing segment of our commercial mortgage servicing business.

去年，我們簽訂了一項最終協議，出售我們商業抵押貸款服務業務的非代理第三方服務部分。

More broadly, the US economy has performed very well and remains strong, and lower inflation and unemployment position the economy well into 2025.

更廣泛地說，美國經濟表現良好並保持強勁，較低的通膨和失業率使經濟能夠順利進入 2025 年。

We are predominantly a US bank, we succeed when the country succeeds, so the incoming administration support of US businesses and consumers gives us optimism as we look forward.

我們主要是一家美國銀行，當國家成功時我們也會成功，因此美國企業和消費者即將獲得的政府支持讓我們對未來充滿樂觀。

Additionally, the incoming administration has signaled a more business-friendly approach to policies and regulation, which should benefit the economy and our clients.

此外，即將上任的政府已表示將採取更有利於商業的政策和監管方式，這應該有利於經濟和我們的客戶。

Mike will talk more about our expectations for 2025.

Mike 將更多地談論我們對 2025 年的期望。

But as we start the new year, I'm enthusiastic about the opportunities we have to drive higher returns across our businesses by growing revenue and managing expenses.

但在新的一年開始之際，我對透過增加收入和管理費用來推動整個業務更高回報的機會充滿熱情。

I'm proud of the progress we made in 2024.

我為我們在 2024 年所取得的進步感到自豪。

I want to conclude by thanking everyone who works at Wells Fargo, their hard work for what they do every single day to support our customers, clients and communities.

最後，我要感謝富國銀行的每一位工作人員，感謝他們每天為支持我們的顧客、客戶和社區所做的辛勤工作。

I'm excited about the momentum we're building and all that we can accomplish together in 2025.

我對我們正在建立的勢頭以及我們在 2025 年共同實現的一切感到興奮。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，查理，大家早安。

We had solid results in the fourth quarter, including net income of $5.1 billion or $1.43 per diluted common share.

我們在第四季度取得了穩健的業績，其中淨利潤為 51 億美元，即稀釋後普通股每股收益 1.43 美元。

Underlying business performance was strong compared to a year ago.

與一年前相比，基本業務表現強勁。

We grew fee income across most categories, maintained our expense and credit discipline and grew customer accounts and activity levels as we benefited from the investments that Charlie highlighted.

我們從查理強調的投資中受益，大多數類別的費用收入都增加了，維持了我們的費用和信用紀律，並增加了客戶帳戶和活動水平。

We also grew net interest income from the third quarter.

我們第三季的淨利息收入也有所成長。

Our fourth quarter results included $863 million or $0.26 per share of discrete tax benefits related to resolution of prior period matters.

我們第四季的業績包括與解決前期問題相關的 8.63 億美元或每股 0.26 美元的離散稅收優惠。

This benefit was largely offset by $647 million or $0.15 per share of [severance expense] and $448 million or $0.10 per share of net losses on the sale of debt securities as we took the opportunity to further reposition the portion of the investment portfolio.

這一收益在很大程度上被6.47 億美元或每股0.15 美元的[遣散費]和4.48 億美元或每股0.10 美元的債務證券出售淨虧損所抵消，因為我們藉此機會進一步重新配置了投資組合的部分。

This included the sale of approximately $8 million of securities, which we reinvested into higher-yielding securities.

這包括出售約 800 萬美元的證券，我們將其再投資於收益更高的證券。

The estimated payback period for this repositioning is approximately 2.5 years.

此次重新定位的預計投資回收期約為2.5年。

Turning to slide 4.

轉到投影片 4。

Net interest income grew $146 million or 1% from the third quarter, the first linked-quarter increase since the fourth quarter of 2022.

淨利息收入較第三季成長 1.46 億美元，增幅為 1%，這是自 2022 年第四季以來首次環比成長。

The increase was driven by higher customer deposit balances, which enabled us to continue to reduce higher cost market funding.

這一增長是由客戶存款餘額增加所推動的，這使我們能夠繼續減少成本較高的市場融資。

Moving to slide 5.

轉到投影片 5。

Average loans were down from both the third quarter and a year ago, Period-end balances grew $3 billion from the third quarter with growth in commercial and industrial loans and credit card loans more than offsetting declines in most other categories.

平均貸款較第三季和去年同期均有所下降，期末餘額較第三季增加 30 億美元，商業和工業貸款以及信用卡貸款的成長超過了大多數其他類別的下降。

Average deposits increased both from the third quarter and a year ago with growth in our customer deposits, enabling us to reduce higher-cost corporate treasury deposits.

隨著客戶存款的成長，平均存款較第三季和去年同期均增加，使我們能夠減少成本較高的企業庫存存款。

Average deposit cost declined 18 basis points from the third quarter as deposit costs stabilized or declined across all of our deposit gathering businesses.

由於我們所有存款收集業務的存款成本穩定或下降，平均存款成本較第三季下降 18 個基點。

In response to the Federal Reserve rate cuts, we have reduced standard pricing for commercial clients as well as pricing for promotional deposit offers and CDs in our consumer businesses.

為了因應聯準會降息，我們降低了商業客戶的標準定價以及消費者業務的促銷存款優惠和 CD 的定價。

Lower deposit costs also reflected the slowdown of customer migration to higher yielding deposits.

存款成本下降也反映出客戶轉向高收益存款的速度放緩。

Additionally, lower cost consumer deposit balances and checking and saving accounts have continued to stabilize.

此外，成本較低的消費者存款餘額以及支票和儲蓄帳戶繼續穩定。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

We had strong growth in noninterest income, up 11% from a year ago, benefiting from the investments we've been making in our businesses as well as market conditions.

受惠於我們對業務的投資以及市場狀況，我們的非利息收入強勁成長，比一年前成長了 11%。

This growth was diversified with each of our operating segments generating growth from a year ago.

這種成長是多元化的，我們的每個營運部門都比一年前實現了成長。

I'll highlight the specific drivers of noninterest income and discussing our operating segment results.

我將重點介紹非利息收入的具體驅動因素並討論我們的營運部門表現。

Turning to expenses on slide 7.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的費用。

Noninterest expense declined 12% from a year ago, driven by the lower FDIC special assessment.

由於 FDIC 特別評估較低，非利息支出較上年同期下降 12%。

Excluding this assessment, expenses were relatively stable as lower severance expense and the impact of our efficiency initiatives was largely offset by higher revenue-related compensation predominantly in Wealth and Investment Management as well as higher technology and equipment expense.

排除此評估，費用相對穩定，因為遣散費較低，我們效率措施的影響在很大程度上被財富和投資管理領域收入相關薪酬的增加以及技術和設備費用的增加所抵消。

Turning to credit quality on slide 8.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的信用品質。

Credit performance has been relatively stable with our net loan charge-off ratio the same as a year ago and up 4 basis points from the third quarter.

信貸表現相對穩定，淨貸款核銷率與去年同期持平，較第三季上升4個基點。

Commercial net loan charge-offs increased $80 million from the third quarter to 30 basis points of average loans, driven by the commercial real estate office portfolio.

在商業房地產辦公室投資組合的推動下，商業淨貸款沖銷較第三季增加了 8,000 萬美元，達到平均貸款的 30 個基點。

Commercial real estate office fundamentals have not changed and remain weak.

商業不動產辦公大樓基本面沒有改變，依然疲軟。

We still expect commercial real estate office losses to be lumpy as we continue to actively work with our clients.

隨著我們繼續積極與客戶合作，我們仍然預計商業房地產辦公室的損失將會很大。

Consumer net loan charge-offs increased $20 million from the third quarter to 85 basis points of average loans, driven by higher losses in the credit card portfolio, which was consistent with our expectations.

由於信用卡投資組合損失增加，消費者淨貸款沖銷較第三季增加了 2,000 萬美元，達到平均貸款的 85 個基點，這與我們的預期一致。

Nonperforming assets declined 5% from the third quarter, driven by a $390 million decline in commercial real estate office nonaccrual loans, which includes paydowns and net loan charge-offs.

不良資產較第三季下降 5%，因為商業房地產辦公室非應計貸款（包括還款和淨貸款沖銷）減少了 3.9 億美元。

Moving to slide 9.

轉到投影片 9。

Our allowance for credit losses for loans was down $103 million from the third quarter, with modest declines across most asset classes partially offset by the increase in allowance for credit card loans driven by higher loan balances.

我們的貸款信用損失準備金比第三季減少了 1.03 億美元，大多數資產類別的小幅下降被貸款餘額增加推動的信用卡貸款準備金增加部分抵消。

Our allowance coverage for total loans has been relatively stable over the past five quarters as credit trends have remained fairly consistent.

由於信貸趨勢保持相當一致，我們的總貸款撥備覆蓋率在過去五個季度相對穩定。

Our allowance coverage for our corporate and investment banking and commercial real estate office portfolio increased 12% as loan balances continued to decline and allowance levels were relatively stable.

由於貸款餘額持續下降且準備金水準相對穩定，我們的企業和投資銀行以及商業房地產辦公室投資組合的準備金覆蓋率增加了 12%。

Turning to capital and liquidity on slide 10.

轉向投影片 10 上的資本和流動性。

Our capital position remains strong, and our CET1 ratio of 11.1% continues to be well above our CET1 regulatory minimum plus buffers of 9.8%.

我們的資本狀況依然強勁，11.1% 的 CET1 比率繼續遠高於我們的 CET1 監管最低要求加上 9.8% 的緩衝。

We repurchased $4 million of common stock in the fourth quarter and approximately $20 million for the year, reducing common shares outstanding by 9% from a year ago.

我們在第四季回購了 400 萬美元的普通股，全年回購了約 2,000 萬美元，使流通在外的普通股比去年同期減少了 9%。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking lending on slide 11.

轉向我們的營運部門，從幻燈片 11 上的消費者銀行貸款開始。

Consumer Small and Business Banking revenue declined 7% from a year ago, driven by lower net interest income, reflecting the impact of customers migrating to higher yield and deposit products.

由於淨利息收入下降，小型消費者和企業銀行業務收入較上年同期下降 7%，反映出客戶轉向更高收益和存款產品的影響。

However, the pace of the migration continues to slow.

然而，遷移的速度持續放緩。

Home lending revenue grew 2% from a year ago driven by higher mortgage banking fees.

由於抵押貸款銀行費用上漲，房屋貸款收入較上年同期增加 2%。

Credit card revenue grew 3% from a year ago as loan balances increased and card fees grew from a higher point of sale volume.

由於貸款餘額增加以及銷售點銷售增加導致信用卡費用增加，信用卡收入較上年同期增加 3%。

We continue to be pleased with the performance of new products that we launched over the last 3.5 years, with credit performing as expected and strong growth in new accounts and usage.

我們對過去 3.5 年推出的新產品的表現仍然感到滿意，信貸表現符合預期，新帳戶和使用量強勁增長。

Auto revenue decreased 21% from a year ago, driven by lower loan balances, reflecting previous credit tightening actions and continued loan spread compression.

由於貸款餘額下降，汽車收入年減 21%，反映出先前的信貸緊縮行動和持續的貸款利差壓縮。

The decline in personal lending revenue from a year ago is also driven by lower loan balances and loan spread compression.

個人貸款收入較一年前下降也是由於貸款餘額下降和貸款利差壓縮所致。

Turning to some key business drivers on slide 12.

轉向投影片 12 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。

Retail mortgage originations increased 31% from a year ago with higher purchase volume as well as stronger refinance volume early in the quarter when interest rates were lower.

零售抵押貸款發放量較去年同期成長 31%，購買量增加，本季初利率較低時的再融資量也增加。

Debit card spending was strong in the fourth quarter and increased $4.9 billion or 4% from a year ago, and credit card spending was up 9% from a year ago, with growth in all categories except fuel.

第四季金融卡支出強勁，較去年同期成長 49 億美元，成長 4%；信用卡支出較去年同期成長 9%，除燃油外的所有類別均出現成長。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on slide 13.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的商業銀行業務結果。

Middle Market Banking revenue was down 2% from a year ago, driven by lower net interest income, reflecting higher deposit costs, partially offset by growth in treasury management fees.

中間市場銀行業務收入較上年同期下降 2%，原因是淨利息收入下降，反映出存款成本上升，但資金管理費的成長部分抵銷了這一影響。

Asset-based lending and leasing revenue decreased 12% from a year ago, driven by lower net interest income and lease income, partially offset by improved results from our equity investments.

由於淨利息收入和租賃收入下降，資產抵押貸款和租賃收入較去年同期下降 12%，但股權投資績效的改善部分抵消了這一影響。

Average loan balances in the fourth quarter were down 1% compared with a year ago as growth in middle market banking was more than offset by lower balances in asset-based lending.

第四季平均貸款餘額較去年同期下降 1%，原因是中間市場銀行業務的成長被資產貸款餘額的下降所抵銷。

While our commercial clients are generally more optimistic, we did not see a meaningful change in loan demand in the fourth quarter as many clients remain cautious.

雖然我們的商業客戶普遍較為樂觀，但我們沒有看到第四季度貸款需求有有意義的變化，因為許多客戶仍保持謹慎態度。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on slide 14.

轉向投影片 14 上的企業和投資銀行業務。

We Banking revenue was down 4% from a year ago, driven by higher deposit costs and lower loan balances.

由於存款成本上升和貸款餘額下降，我們銀行的收入年減 4%。

This decline was partially offset by higher investment banking revenue from increased activity in equity and debt capital markets as well as higher advisory fees.

這一下降被股票和債務資本市場活動增加帶來的投資銀行收入增加以及諮詢費用的增加部分抵消。

Commercial real estate revenue decreased 1% from a year ago, reflecting the impact of lower loan balances, partially offset by higher capital markets revenue from higher volumes in commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate loan syndications and multifamily capital as market sentiment improves.

商業房地產收入較上年同期下降1%，反映出貸款餘額減少的影響，但隨著市場情緒改善，商業抵押貸款支持證券、房地產銀團貸款和多戶型資本數量增加，資本市場收入增加，部分抵消了這一影響。

Markets revenue was down 5% from a year ago, driven by lower revenues in equities and municipals, partially offset by stronger performance than most other products, fixed income products.

受股票和市政收入下降的推動，市場收入較上年同期下降 5%，但部分被比大多數其他產品（固定收益產品）更強勁的表現所抵消。

Our fourth quarter results reflected the implementation of a change to incorporate funding valuation adjustments for our derivatives which resulted in a loss of $85 million.

我們第四季的業績反映了我們對衍生性商品進行融資估值調整的變化，這導致了 8,500 萬美元的損失。

The decline from the third quarter was also driven by seasonally lower trading activity across most asset classes.

第三季的下降也是由於大多數資產類別的交易活動季節性下降所致。

Average loans declined 6% from a year ago, driven by continued reductions in our commercial real estate portfolio driven by office as well as lower loan balances in banking as clients continued to access to capital markets for funding.

平均貸款較上年同期下降 6%，原因是辦公室帶動的商業房地產投資組合持續減少，以及客戶繼續進入資本市場融資而導致銀行貸款餘額下降。

On slide 15, Wealth and Investment Management revenue increased 8% compared with a year ago due to higher asset-based fees driven by increased market valuations.

在投影片 15 中，由於市場估值上升導致資產費用增加，財富和投資管理收入較上年同期成長 8%。

As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so first quarter results will reflect market valuations as of January 1, which were up from both a year ago and from October 1.

需要提醒的是，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產是在季度初定價的，因此第一季的業績將反映截至 1 月 1 日的市場估值，該估值較去年同期和 10 月 1 日有所上升。

Average deposits increased by 16% and average loans grew by 2% from a year ago, which have both benefited from product enhancements and pricing improvements that provide value to our clients.

與一年前相比，平均存款增加了 16%，平均貸款增加了 2%，這都得益於為客戶提供價值的產品增強和定價改進。

The growth in deposits also reflected the slowdown in migration to cash alternatives with balances in those products lower than a year ago.

存款的成長也反映出遷移到現金替代品的放緩，這些產品的餘額低於一年前。

Slide 16 highlights our corporate results.

幻燈片 16 重點介紹了我們的公司業績。

Revenue increased from a year ago, driven by improved results from our venture capital investments.

由於我們的創投業績改善，營收較上年同期成長。

After having impairments on these investments for the past two years, we had net gains every quarter in 2024 with improved performance in the second half of the year.

在過去兩年對這些投資進行減損之後，我們在 2024 年每季都實現了淨收益，下半年業績有所改善。

Now turning to our outlook on slide 17.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 17 的展望。

I'll go into more detail on our 2025 expectations for net interest income and noninterest expense in the next few slides, but first, I want to highlight the progress we've made on improving our returns.

我將在接下來的幾張投影片中更詳細地介紹我們對 2025 年淨利息收入和非利息支出的預期，但首先，我想強調一下我們在提高回報方面取得的進展。

When we first started discussing the outlook for our returns in the fourth quarter of 2020, we had an 8% ROTCE.

當我們第一次開始討論 2020 年第四季的回報前景時，我們的 ROTCE 為 8%。

Over the past four years, we have been successfully executing on our efficiency initiatives, diversifying our sources of revenue by investing in our businesses to better serve our customers and drive growth and returning excess capital to shareholders.

在過去的四年裡，我們成功地執行了我們的效率計劃，透過投資我們的業務來實現收入來源多元化，以更好地服務我們的客戶並推動成長，並將多餘的資本返還給股東。

These actions helped to improve our ROTCE to 13.4% in 2024.

這些行動幫助我們在 2024 年將 ROTCE 提高到 13.4%。

We still believe we have an achievable path to a sustainable ROTCE of 15% as we continue to make progress on transforming the company, including the priorities highlighted earlier on the call.

我們仍然相信，隨著我們在公司轉型方面繼續取得進展，包括先前在電話會議上強調的優先事項，我們有一條可以實現 15% 的可持續 ROTCE 的道路。

On slide 18, we provide our expectations for net interest income for 2025.

在投影片 18 中，我們提供了 2025 年淨利息收入的預期。

We had $47.7 billion of net interest income in 2024, which was within the expected range we provided at the start of last year.

2024年我們的淨利息收入為477億美元，這在我們去年初提供的預期範圍內。

Net interest income declined sequentially for the first three quarters of the year before growing modestly in the fourth quarter.

今年前三季淨利息收入連續下降，第四季小幅成長。

Our fourth quarter annualized net interest income is $47 billion or approximately $700 million lower than full year 2024.

我們第四季的年化淨利息收入為 470 億美元，比 2024 年全年低約 7 億美元。

Our current expectation is that full year 2025 net interest income will be approximately 1% to 3% higher than full year 2024 or approximately 3% to 5% higher than the annualized fourth quarter 2024 net interest income.

我們目前的預期是，2025年全年淨利息收入將比2024年全年高出約1%至3%，或比2024年第四季年化淨利息收入高出約3%至5%。

We expect net interest income will be relatively stable in the first half of 2025, which includes the impact from two fewer days in the first quarter with more growth in the second half of the year.

我們預計2025年上半年淨利息收入將相對穩定，其中包括第一季天數減少兩天、下半年成長較多的影響。

Underpinning our expectations are a series of key assumptions, including using the recent forward rate curve, which includes between one and two Fed Reserve rate cuts, given our modestly asset-sensitive position, this will be a slight headwind to net interest income.

支撐我們預期的是一系列關鍵假設，包括使用最近的遠期利率曲線，其中包括聯準會降息一到兩次，考慮到我們對資產適度敏感的立場，這將對淨利息收入構成輕微阻力。

Average loans are expected to grow modestly from fourth quarter of 2024 to fourth quarter of 2025 driven by anticipated growth in the Corporate Investment Bank markets group and CIB banking as well as anticipated growth in our auto and credit card portfolios.

在企業投資銀行市場集團和 CIB 銀行業務的預期成長以及我們的汽車和信用卡投資組合的預期成長的推動下，2024 年第四季至 2025 年第四季的平均貸款預計將小幅成長。

Deposits in all our deposit-gathering businesses are expected to grow modestly, which would allow us to further reduce higher-cost market funding.

我們所有吸收存款業務的存款預計將小幅增長，這將使我們能夠進一步減少成本較高的市場融資。

Reinvestment of lower-yielding securities into higher yielding assets, our expectation also reflects the benefits from the actions we took in the second half of 2024 to reposition the investment portfolio.

將低收益證券再投資為高收益資產，我們的預期也反映了我們在 2024 年下半年採取的重新定位投資組合行動所帶來的好處。

And trading-related net interest income is expected to be higher due to lower interest rates which would largely be offset by lower trading-related noninterest income.

由於利率較低，預計與交易相關的淨利息收入將會增加，而這將在很大程度上被與交易相關的非利息收入的減少所抵消。

As we've done in prior years, for the purposes of estimating net interest income, we are also assuming the asset capital remained in place throughout the year.

正如我們前幾年所做的那樣，為了估算淨利息收入，我們也假設資產資本全年保持不變。

Ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earned in 2025 will depend on a variety of factors, many of which are uncertain, including the absolute level of interest rates, the shape of the curve, deposit balances, mix and pricing and loan demand.

最終，我們在2025年賺取的淨利息收入將取決於多種因素，其中許多因素是不確定的，包括利率的絕對水準、曲線的形狀、存款餘額、結構和定價以及貸款需求。

Now turning to our 2025 expense expectations on slide 19.

現在轉向幻燈片 19 上的 2025 年支出預期。

Following the waterfall on the slide from left to right, we reported $54.6 billion of noninterest expense in 2024, which includes $647 million of severance expense in the fourth quarter that was not contemplated in our guidance.

按照從左到右的瀑布瀑布圖，我們報告了 2024 年的非利息支出為 546 億美元，其中包括第四季度 6.47 億美元的遣散費，這是我們的指導中未考慮到的。

Our 2025 expense expectation includes operating losses of approximately $1.1 billion, which is approximately $700 million lower than operating losses in 2024.

我們的 2025 年費用預期包括約 11 億美元的營運虧損，比 2024 年的營運虧損減少約 7 億美元。

Looking at the next bar, we expect severance expense to be approximately $500 million lower in 2025, given the expense [repool] we took in the fourth quarter of 2024.

看看下一個長條圖，考慮到我們在 2024 年第四季支出的費用，我們預計 2025 年遣散費將減少約 5 億美元。

We expect Wealth and Investment Management revenue-related expenses to increase by approximately $600 million in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年財富和投資管理收入相關費用將增加約 6 億美元。

As a reminder, this is a good thing as these higher expenses were more offset by higher noninterest income.

提醒一下，這是一件好事，因為這些較高的支出更多地被較高的非利息收入所抵銷。

Actual revenue-related expenses will be a function of market levels with the biggest driver being the equity markets.

實際與收入相關的支出將取決於市場水平，其中最大的推動力是股票市場。

Our outlook that assumes the S&P 500 will be up modestly from current levels, but clearly, the ultimate performance of the markets is uncertain.

我們的前景是假設標準普爾 500 指數將比目前水準小幅上漲，但顯然，市場的最終表現尚不確定。

We expect all other expenses to be up approximately $200 million with the impact of efficiency initiatives, more than offset by higher investments in other expenses.

我們預計，由於效率措施的影響，所有其他費用將增加約 2 億美元，足以被其他費用投資的增加所抵消。

We expect approximately $2.4 billion of gross expense reductions in 2025 due to efficiency initiatives.

我們預計，由於效率舉措，到 2025 年總費用將減少約 24 億美元。

We've successfully delivered on more than $12 billion of gross expense saves since we started focusing on efficiency initiatives four years ago, and we continue to believe we have opportunities to get more efficient across the company.

自從四年前開始關注效率措施以來，我們已成功節省了超過 120 億美元的總費用，並且我們仍然相信我們有機會提高整個公司的效率。

Keep in mind, however, the resources needed to address our risk and control work are separate from our efficiency initiatives.

但請記住，解決我們的風險和控制工作所需的資源與我們的效率計劃是分開的。

There are three primary areas where we expected to invest.

我們預計投資三個主要領域。

First, we expect approximately $900 million of incremental technology expense, including investments in infrastructure and business capabilities.

首先，我們預期增量技術支出約為 9 億美元，包括基礎設施和業務能力的投資。

Second, we expect approximately $900 million of incremental other investments, including the specific areas we highlighted on the next slide.

其次，我們預計將有約 9 億美元的其他投資，包括我們在下一張投影片中強調的具體領域。

Finally, we expect other expenses to increase by approximately $800 million, including expected merit increases in performance-based discretionary compensation.

最後，我們預計其他費用將增加約 8 億美元，包括基於績效的酌情薪酬的預期績效成長。

As a reminder, the first quarter has seasonally higher personnel expenses, which are expected to be $650 million to $700 million.

提醒一下，第一季的人員費用季節性較高，預計為 6.5 億至 7 億美元。

Putting this all together, we expect 2025 noninterest expense to be approximately $54.2 billion.

綜上所述，我們預期 2025 年非利息支出約為 542 億美元。

On slide 20, we provide some examples of our areas of focus for the investments, which are critical to better serving our customers and generating growth.

在投影片 20 中，我們提供了一些投資重點領域的範例，這對於更好地服務客戶和促進成長至關重要。

Let me highlight a few.

讓我重點介紹幾個。

Building the right risk and control infrastructure remains our top priority, and we will continue to invest in this important work.

建立正確的風險和控制基礎設施仍然是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續投資這項重要工作。

We continue to invest in technology and digital platforms to transform how we serve both our consumer and commercial customers.

我們繼續投資技術和數位平台，以改變我們為消費者和商業客戶提供服務的方式。

This includes continuing the transition of our applications to the cloud, migrating into new data centers and investing in data platforms to drive more insights.

這包括繼續將我們的應用程式過渡到雲端、遷移到新的資料中心以及投資資料平台以推動更多洞察。

We are continuing to upgrade our core lending capabilities, including improvements to our fulfillment and servicing systems, enhancing private decisioning and strengthening fraud capabilities.

我們正在繼續升級我們的核心貸款能力，包括改善我們的履行和服務系統、增強私人決策和加強詐欺能力。

To drive customer growth in the consumer businesses, we plan to continue scaling our marketing efforts, modernizing our branch footprint and increasing the number of premier bankers and financial advisers.

為了推動消費業務的客戶成長，我們計劃繼續擴大行銷力度，實現分行的現代化，並增加一流銀行家和財務顧問的數量。

We are also focused on onboarding more independent advisers as we continue building out our independent brokerage channel.

隨著我們繼續建立獨立經紀管道，我們也專注於聘請更多獨立顧問。

In addition, we continue to improve our digital capabilities for our customers, specifically our mobile account opening and onboarding as well as Zelle.

此外，我們繼續為客戶提高數位化能力，特別是我們的行動帳戶開設和入職以及 Zelle。

We plan to continue hiring priority sectors to help drive growth in investment banking and capital markets.

我們計劃繼續招聘優先部門，以幫助推動投資銀行和資本市場的成長。

We also plan to continue hiring relationship bankers within commercial banking to build out coverage in underpenetrated markets in key industries.

我們也計劃繼續在商業銀行內部聘用關係銀行家，以擴大關鍵產業滲透率較低的市場的覆蓋範圍。

In summary, our results in 2024 demonstrated the continued progress we've been making to improve our financial performance.

總之，我們 2024 年的業績證明了我們在改善財務表現方面所取得的持續進展。

We generated strong fee-based revenue growth, reduced our expenses, maintain strong credit discipline, increased capital returns to shareholders and retained our strong capital position.

我們實現了強勁的收費收入成長，減少了開支，維持嚴格的信用紀律，增加了股東的資本回報，並維持了強勁的資本地位。

I'm very pleased with the progress we've made so far and excited about the additional opportunities we have to continue to try and improve performance.

我對我們迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常滿意，並對我們必須繼續嘗試和提高績效的額外機會感到興奮。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) John McDonald, Truist Securities.

（操作員指令）John McDonald，Truist 證券公司。

Mike, I was hoping you could unpack the deposit expectations embedded in slide 18 and the NII outlook.

Mike，我希望您能解開投影片 18 中包含的存款預期和 NII 前景。

You talked about stabilization of retail volumes and mix.

您談到了零售量和組合的穩定。

Just kind of wanted to get a little more detail about what you're assuming for retail deposit growth mix and how that plays into the paydown of higher cost borrowings throughout the year in your plan?

只是想更詳細地了解您對零售存款成長組合的假設，以及它如何影響您計劃中全年高成本借款的償還？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, John, and welcome back and welcome to your new seat.

謝謝，約翰，歡迎回來，歡迎來到你的新座位。

Look, I think as we've sort of talked about now, I guess, for the last three or four quarters, we've been seeing less and less migration out of noninterest-bearing to interest bearing.

聽著，我想正如我們現在所討論的那樣，我想在過去的三四個季度裡，我們看到從無息向有息的遷移越來越少。

You got to look through some of the product consolidations we did in the third quarter.

您必須查看我們在第三季進行的一些產品整合。

So there's some noise that we talked about last quarter.

我們上個季度討論過一些噪音。

But so we've seen continued sort of stabilization of the mix between noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing.

但我們看到無息和有息之間的組合持續穩定。

And so that's sort of helpful as you go into this year, and we expect that to continue as we look forward and then start to see absolute growth across the consumer franchise.

因此，當你進入今年時，這會有所幫助，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，然後開始看到整個消費者特許經營權的絕對增長。

As you know, in the interest-bearing products in the consumer side, pricing hasn't really moved much through the cycle.

大家知道，在消費端的生息產品中，定價在整個週期中並沒有真正發生太大的變化。

And so you're not seeing standard pricing change much, but you are seeing the promotional savings and CD rates continue to come down over the last 90, 120 days as rates have started to move.

因此，您不會看到標準定價發生太大變化，但您會看到促銷節省和 CD 費率在過去 90、120 天內隨著費率開始變化而持續下降。

And so we would expect that that mix to stabilize.

因此，我們預計這種組合會穩定下來。

We expect some absolute growth, and we don't expect pricing pressure to come through on the consumer side.

我們預計會有一定的絕對成長，並且我們預期消費者方面不會承受定價壓力。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just wanted to shift gears and ask about credit card profitability.

然後只是想換個話題，詢問一下信用卡的獲利能力。

When you're in growth mode, credit card experience is a drag from accounting on the upfront acquisition costs and provision.

當您處於成長模式時，信用卡體驗會拖累前期採購成本和準備金的會計。

Where are you on card profitability now?

您現在的卡片獲利能力如何？

Is that an upside driver to ROE as more of the balances, roll off teasers, and some of that upfront expense wanes?

隨著更多的餘額、預告片的推出以及一些前期費用的減少，這是否是股本回報率的上行驅動因素？

Yes, certainly is.

是的，當然。

I think as you look backwards a little bit, we started launching the new products 3.5 years ago.

我想，如果你稍微回顧一下，我們 3.5 年前就開始推出新產品了。

So the first of the vintages came on starting in August -- July, August, a few years ago.

因此，第一個年份是從八月開始的──幾年前的七月、八月。

And so we're just starting to kind of see those earliest vintages mature and become more profitable.

因此，我們剛開始看到那些最早的年份成熟並變得更加有利可圖。

So we're still early days in terms of seeing that profitability really come through in the P&L.

因此，就獲利能力真正體現在損益表而言，我們仍處於早期階段。

I'd say, obviously, the factors you got to think about as you sort of look through that is the credit box and the credit performance, that's all behaving right on top of what we would have modeled.

我想說，顯然，當你仔細查看時，你必須考慮的因素是信用箱和信用表現，這些因素都表現在我們所建模的之上。

So we're not seeing any concerns flow through from what we modeled across all of the different new products.

因此，我們沒有看到我們對所有不同新產品的建模產生任何擔憂。

And we're seeing, as Charlie highlighted in his script, we're seeing good new account growth, continue across the different products there.

我們看到，正如查理在他的腳本中所強調的那樣，我們看到了良好的新帳戶增長，並且在不同的產品中繼續存在。

And so it's just a matter of time for that to really more meaningfully come into the P&L.

因此，將其真正更有意義地納入損益表只是時間問題。

It really hasn't contributed much at all yet as you sort of look at it, but it will start to come through over the next year or two.

從你的角度來看，它確實還沒有做出太多貢獻，但它將在未來一兩年內開始發揮作用。

And John, this is Charlie.

約翰，這是查理。

The only thing I would add, I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, but the two places that we think of as where we've already taken actions and assist execution now, which will improve profitability.

我唯一要補充的是，我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但我們認為我們現在已經採取行動並協助執行的兩個地方，這將提高盈利能力。

One is card, as you pointed out.

正如您所指出的，其中之一是卡。

And the second I referenced is we're still not at the level of profitability where we should be in home lending, just given as we continue to wind down that servicing book.

我提到的第二個問題是，我們仍然沒有達到房屋貸款應有的盈利水平，只是在我們繼續減少服務帳簿的情況下。

And so we think those two things will be helpful for us as we look forward.

因此，我們認為這兩件事將對我們的未來有所幫助。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

I guess I just wanted to go back, maybe, Charlie, to something you talked about back in December on the back of the lifting of the OCC consent order.

我想我只是想回到，也許，查理，你在 12 月 OCC 同意令取消後談論過的事情。

As we think about just the ROE trajectory for the bank, it will be useful if you can maybe give some tangible examples of things that you've been able to do post the lifting of the consent order in terms of incenting branch employees and where in the balance sheet or in the P&L, we should expect that to show up maybe as early as 2025.

當我們只考慮銀行的ROE 軌跡時，如果您能給出一些具體的例子，說明您在取消同意令後能夠在激勵分行員工方面所做的事情，以及在哪些方面可以做的事情，那將會很有用。

Yes.

是的。

Ebrahim, it's Mike.

易卜拉欣，是麥克。

Maybe I'll start and Charlie can chime in if he wants to add.

也許我會開始，查理如果想補充的話可以插話。

I think what you're referencing just to make sure everyone is clear, is the sales practices consent order, they got lifted last February.

我認為你所引用的只是為了確保每個人都清楚，是銷售行為同意令，它們在去年二月被解除。

As part of the work we had to do when that came on, we dialed back much of what you would expect to see in the branch system around incentive plans and sales goals and the like and to make sure that we built -- rebuilt the control framework and all of those things that we would do there in a way that would make sure that the problems of the past don't reoccur.

作為我們在這種情況發生時必須做的工作的一部分，我們回撥了您期望在分支機構系統中看到的圍繞激勵計劃和銷售目標等的大部分內容，並確保我們重建了控制框架以及我們將在那裡做的所有事情，以確保過去的問題不會再次發生。

And so as we saw that consent order go away, we've been able to more fully roll out a standard sort of incentive framework across the branches.

因此，當我們看到同意令消失時，我們就能夠在各個分支機構更全面地推出標準的激勵框架。

We have been piloting it for a while in a small subset.

我們已經在一小部分地區試點了一段時間。

And as you would expect, you would see different performance and better performance in those pilot branches, and that's across new checking growth, credit card accounts and the like.

正如您所期望的，您將在這些試點分支機構中看到不同的績效和更好的績效，這涉及新的支票成長、信用卡帳戶等。

And so we're still in the early days to see the benefits of that system be put in place because it got rolled out throughout 2024.

因此，我們仍處於早期階段，無法看到該系統的優勢，因為它已在 2024 年全面推出。

And so we would expect to kind of see the results start to come through more meaningfully over the near term, medium term.

因此，我們希望看到結果在短期、中期開始變得更有意義。

Maybe just a little more color to what Mike said.

也許只是給麥克的話增添一點色彩。

I think again, if you think back, it was hugely important that that we satisfied the obligations that existed in that consent order and that we were comfortable with the control environment that existed.

我再次想，如果你回想一下，我們履行同意令中存在的義務並且我們對現有的控制環境感到滿意是非常重要的。

And so we took away, as Mike said, a whole series of things.

因此，正如麥克所說，我們拿走了一系列的東西。

It's not just one thing.

這不僅僅是一件事。

It was compensation, it's recording goals, just the whole way we manage the system, as we were building out everything that would make us and our regulators comfortable as we managed the system in the future, similar to the way other people manage their system that if someone were to be doing something that wasn't appropriate that we had the right controls and reporting in place to catch it.

這是補償，它是記錄目標，就是我們管理系統的整個方式，因為我們正在構建一切讓我們和我們的監管者在未來管理系統時感到舒適的東西，類似於其他人管理他們的系統的方式如果有人做了不適當的事情，我們就會採取正確的控制措施並進行報告來發現它。

So it took a long time to build that out, but to have the confidence that we could add back a lot of these management mechanisms that you have in place, and so no one individual thing is earth shattering.

因此，我們花了很長時間才建立起來，但我們有信心，我們可以重新添加許多現有的管理機制，所以沒有任何一件單獨的事情是驚天動地的。

But when you take compensation, when you take reporting when you take management routines, when you take all those things and put them together, at the same time, you're monitoring all the controls that you've built that's what gives us the confidence to go forward with the system that we think can attract more customers and do more with our existing customers, but within a very tightly controlled framework that we feel comfortable relative to how we manage the risk that's there.

但是，當您獲得報酬時，當您進行報告時，當您進行管理例程時，當您將所有這些事情放在一起時，同時，您正在監控您所建立的所有控制措施，這給了我們信心繼續推進我們認為可以吸引更多客戶並為現有客戶做更多事情的系統，但在一個非常嚴格控制的框架內，我們對如何管理存在的風險感到滿意。

Ebrahim, actually, Charlie and a lot of other folks here have seen this before, and we're confident we're going to get the results we think out of it.

易卜拉欣，事實上，查理和這裡的許多其他人以前都看到過這一點，我們相信我們會從中得到我們想到的結果。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And I guess, just maybe following up -- so thanks Mike for running through the expense investment priorities.

我想，也許只是跟進——所以感謝麥克介紹了費用投資的優先事項。

As we think about the severance charge in the fourth quarter, and run way to extract additional efficiencies relative to $54 billion expense guide.

當我們考慮第四季的遣散費時，我們會考慮相對於 540 億美元的支出指南來提高效率。

How should we think about like are we getting to a point where some of the low-hanging fruit is done and expenses generally move higher given the investments and we should at least anticipate positive operating leverage on the way forward?

我們應該如何思考，我們是否已經達到了一些容易實現的目標，並且考慮到投資，費用通常會上升，我們至少應該預期未來的積極營運槓桿？

Or do you still see opportunities to meaningfully cut costs, make things more efficient, especially in the consumer bank?

或者您仍然看到有意義地削減成本、提高效率的機會，尤其是在消費銀行？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Ebrahim, as we sort of look at what you see there and what we're doing in 2025, it's no different than -- the thinking is no different than it's been now for the last four or five years that we've both been here.

我認為，Ebrahim，當我們看看你所看到的以及我們在 2025 年所做的事情時，這與我們過去四到五年的想法沒有什麼不同。

I think as you look at the company, we still feel like there's a significant amount of opportunity to drive efficiency, and that's what you see in in 2025.

我認為，當你審視公司時，我們仍然覺得有大量提高效率的機會，這就是你在 2025 年看到的情況。

And I know we've used this analogy a lot, but it is just like peeling an onion.

我知道我們經常使用這個類比，但這就像剝洋蔥皮一樣。

And as you sort of look at the next layer down, you find more efficiency, you bring better technology, you bring better automation, which, by the way, saves us money, but also in a lot of cases, improves the client experience for our customers.

當你觀察下一層時，你會發現效率更高，帶來了更好的技術，帶來了更好的自動化，順便說一句，這為我們節省了資金，而且在很多情況下，還改善了客戶體驗我們的客戶。

And -- and so we -- as we come in every day, we still think about it the same way that we've been thinking about for a while, and that's what you see in the expectations for this year.

因此，當我們每天進來時，我們仍然以我們一段時間以來的思考方式來思考這個問題，這就是你在今年的預期中看到的。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Good morning.

早安.

On the NII outlook, I know you said it includes modest loan growth expectation for 2025.

關於 NII 前景，我知道您說過其中包括 2025 年適度的貸款成長預期。

I just want to see if you can elaborate a little bit on how we could think about that in terms of level and trajectory?

我只是想看看你是否可以詳細說明我們如何從水平和軌跡方面思考這個問題？

Should it be near GDP?

應該接近GDP嗎？

Or how should we think about that?

或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

And then can you -- in addition to the sizing of the most likely drivers, maybe can you also give us a little bit of color on the pace of expected incremental runoff of balances as you look at the growth outlook?

然後，除了最有可能的驅動因素的規模之外，在您審視成長前景時，也許您還可以為我們提供一些關於預期餘額增量流失速度的資訊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe I'll start on the loan side.

所以也許我會從貸款方面開始。

So as I said in my commentary, like we're expecting to see a little bit more of it as we get to the middle and second half of next year.

正如我在評論中所說，當我們進入明年中和下半年時，我們預計會看到更多這樣的情況。

So -- so we may see a little bit in the first half, but it's not be more meaningful as we go later in the year.

因此，我們可能會在上半年看到一些情況，但隨著今年稍後的進展，這並不會變得更有意義。

I would think of it as like low to mid-single digits depending on the category of loans.

我認為它是低到中個位數，具體取決於貸款類別。

But obviously, some of that will be dependent upon the overall backdrop that we're in.

但顯然，其中一些將取決於我們所處的整體背景。

As you look at the consumer side of the picture, mortgages will likely continue to decline a little bit given sort of the rate environment we're in.

從消費者的角度來看，考慮到我們所處的利率環境，抵押貸款可能會繼續略有下降。

We did see a little bit of incremental refinance activity in the fourth quarter.

我們確實在第四季度看到了一些增量再融資活動。

But now with rates back up, that seems to be back down again.

但現在隨著利率回升，這數字似乎又回落了。

We should see some card growth as we go through the year, and we should start to see some growth in the auto portfolio as well.

隨著這一年的發展，我們應該會看到卡片的一些成長，我們也應該開始看到汽車產品組合的一些成長。

On the commercial side, some of it will be new account new client growth as we go through the year.

在商業方面，隨著這一年的發展，其中一些將是新帳戶、新客戶的成長。

We've been adding bankers across different categories.

我們一直在增加不同類別的銀行家。

We do expect to see some growth in the markets business as well to drive some loan growth.

我們確實預期市場業務也會出現一些成長，並帶動一些貸款成長。

And so it should come from a lot of -- a little bit from a lot of different areas across the population, but I would expect to see that a little bit more as we go into middle and second half of the year.

因此，它應該來自許多不同地區的人口，但我預計當我們進入今年中和下半年時，會看到更多。

Great.

偉大的。

And then separately on capital, 11.1% CET1 pretty solid and you still bought back about $4 billion this quarter.

然後就資本而言，11.1％的 CET1 相當穩定，本季度您仍然回購了約 40 億美元。

How should we think about the buyback appetite as you look at 2025, assuming that you do see some improvement in organic growth opportunities, how could that influence your pace of buyback.

展望 2025 年，我們應該如何考慮回購意願，假設您確實看到有機成長機會有所改善，這會如何影響您的回購步伐。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, look, it's the standard sort of waterfall of decision-making that goes into it, right?

我的意思是，看，這是標準的決策瀑布，對吧？

If we've got good organic growth opportunities across loans and other categories, we're going to serve customers, that's always first.

如果我們在貸款和其他類別上有良好的有機成長機會，我們就會為客戶提供服務，這永遠是第一位的。

We still have the asset cap in place, so there's some limits to that we'll look at all the different risks that are out there across the different categories of items that we got to be concerned about.

我們仍然有資產上限，因此存在一些限制，我們將研究我們需要關注的不同類別項目中存在的所有不同風險。

And then buybacks will kind of be the rest.

然後回購就是剩下的事情了。

And given we've got the after cap and given we've got limited organic growth depending on the quarter you're in, I think you'll see us continue to return capital back to shareholders like we've done now for the last number of years.

考慮到我們已經有了後上限，並且考慮到我們的有機增長有限，具體取決於您所在的季度，我認為您會看到我們繼續將資本返還給股東，就像我們現在所做的那樣年數。

At this point, we don't believe we need to be higher than where we are from a CET1 percentage.

目前，我們認為我們不需要高於 CET1 百分比。

And so we'll manage that based on those opportunities and those decisions that we talked about.

因此，我們將根據我們討論的這些機會和決策來管理這一點。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Clearly, the way the stock has reacted the message from your shareholders has been an embrace of Wells Fargo was more than a remediation story.

顯然，股票對股東訊息的反應方式是擁抱富國銀行，這不僅僅是一個補救故事。

And thinking about the return improvement even beyond the asset cap resolution and the consent order.

並考慮回報的改善，甚至超越資產上限決議和同意令。

And I guess to that end, Charlie and Mike, you have a medium-term ROE target of 15%.

我想為此，查理和麥克，你們的中期 ROE 目標是 15%。

In 2024, you generated almost 13.5%.

2024 年，您的收入接近 13.5%。

And by your own commentary, you still have places like Card and Home Lending where your profitability should improve from here.

根據您自己的評論，您仍然可以在信用卡和房屋貸款等領域提高盈利能力。

You're carrying excess capital, you're under the asset cap.

你攜帶著過剩的資本，你的資產處於上限之下。

Obviously, you're making great efforts in CIB in terms of really using your balance sheet to generate even more fees and off of your relationships.

顯然，您在 CIB 中做出了巨大的努力，真正利用您的資產負債表來產生更多的費用並脫離您的關係。

And as we think about that 15%, especially in the context of you have one money center that has to hold more capital than you that has a 17% target and another money center that has to hold more capital to go than that 15% target.

當我們考慮這15% 時，特別是在這樣的背景下，你有一個貨幣中心必須持有比你的17% 目標更多的資本，而另一個貨幣中心必須持有比15% 目標更多的資本。

I guess, I'm wondering if your shareholders are thinking about fully realized wells beyond the remediation story, what is the true natural return of this business?

我想，我想知道你們的股東是否正在考慮修復故事之外的完全實現的井，這項業務的真正自然回報是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Let me -- Eric, thanks for that.

讓我——艾瑞克，謝謝你。

I think I guess what we would say is -- well, let me just repeat what we've said in the past, right, which is when we look at our businesses, we look at each one individually and we compare ourselves to the best people out there in terms of performance.

我想我想我們會說的是——好吧，讓我重複一下我們過去說過的話，對吧，就是當我們審視我們的業務時，我們單獨審視每一項業務，並將自己與最好的進行比較人們在表現方面。

And it's both returns and growth that we look at because, again, other than our home lending business and I would say the auto business generally, we do expect that our businesses, given the quality should be growing at rates commensurate with some of the best out there in addition to having some of the strongest returns.

我們關注的是回報和成長，因為除了我們的房屋貸款業務和我想說的汽車業務之外，我們確實預計我們的業務，鑑於品質應該以與一些最好的公司相稱的速度增長除了擁有一些最強勁的回報之外。

So when you compare us to other people, right, you've got to look at the mix of business, you got to look at the size of our different businesses versus others.

因此，當你將我們與其他人進行比較時，對吧，你必須看看業務組合，你必須看看我們與其他公司相比不同業務的規模。

But when we think about where we ultimately what our aspirations are, it is based upon where the others are by business and what our business mix looks like relative to how we think about our own targets and what the timing is, I guess we would just say, we got to think about it one step at a time.

但是，當我們思考我們最終的願望是什麼時，它取決於其他人的業務狀況以及我們的業務組合相對於我們如何看待自己的目標和時機，我想我們只會比如說，我們必須一步一步地考慮這個問題。

And we don't want to get ahead of ourselves.

我們不想超越自己。

We've said we want to get to 15%.

我們說過我們希望達到 15%。

We're close, but we're not there.

我們很接近，但我們還沒到那裡。

And so we want to achieve that for sure.

所以我們肯定要實現這個目標。

We have to get out of these orders that we still have that do constrain us.

我們必須擺脫這些仍然限制我們的命令。

And so there's a point at which we've said that not just yourself, but we, too, will address where we think we go from the 15%, but in due time.

因此，我們已經說過，不僅是您自己，我們也將在適當的時候解決我們認為 15% 的發展方向。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

So two questions.

那麼兩個問題。

One, just to follow up on the last question that Eric asked on the drivers.

第一，只是為了跟進艾瑞克向司機提出的最後一個問題。

We're in the last mile.

我們正處於最後一英里。

So congratulations we're in the last mile to the 15%.

恭喜我們已經進入了 15% 的最後一英里。

And are you thinking about that last mile as being driven by revenue growth happening faster in the businesses that have the higher returns?

您是否認為最後一哩路是由回報率較高的企業更快的收入成長所推動的？

Or are there still expenses to be cut out such that the expense ratio and the expense focus is what's going to drive that?

或者是否仍然有一些費用需要削減，以便費用比率和費用重點才是推動這一趨勢的因素？

Betsy, it's Mike.

貝特西，是麥克。

I'll start.

我開始吧。

I'll go back to what we said at some point last year as a reference point, but obviously, there's multiple paths to get there depending on sort of the environment and what happens.

我將回顧去年我們所說的作為參考點，但顯然，根據環境類型和發生的情況，有多種途徑可以到達那裡。

But -- but if you look at where we were talking about earlier in the call, you have the credit card business, you have the home lending business as those two things get to sort of more mature -- more mature return profile in the card business and we get to sort of the profitability improvement we want to see in home lending.

但是，如果你看看我們之前在電話中討論的內容，你有信用卡業務，你有房屋貸款業務，因為這兩件事變得更加成熟 - 卡中更成熟的回報情況業務，我們希望在住房貸款中看到獲利能力的改善。

You can make your own assumptions.

您可以做出自己的假設。

But those two things alone probably get you pretty darn close.

但光是這兩件事就可能讓你非常接近。

You can then look at growth we're getting in the investment bank in capital markets and wealth.

然後你可以看看我們投資銀行在資本市場和財富方面的成長。

And so there's lots of different combinations that get you there.

因此，有許多不同的組合可以幫助您實現這一目標。

And that's why we feel very confident that we'll get to that 15% and then reasonable people can have different opinions on exactly what gets you there first.

這就是為什麼我們非常有信心能夠達到 15%，然後理性的人可以對到底是什麼讓你先達到這個目標有不同的看法。

But I think there's multiple paths to get there.

但我認為有多種途徑可以到達那裡。

Betsy, for a second, if I can.

貝特西，如果可以的話，請等一下。

If you just look at what we've said for next year, right, we've given you an expense number in terms of what our expectations are, which are pretty close to what they are this year.

如果你看看我們所說的明年的情況，對吧，我們已經根據我們的預期向你提供了一個費用數字，這與今年的數字非常接近。

And so we've given you our NII guidance, which is also up from the prior year to make your own assumptions on credit and fee income and you'll get a sense for what we -- to your question if it's expenses or revenues, how we think we're going to get there.

因此，我們為您提供了我們的NII 指導，該指導也比前一年有所提高，以便您對信貸和費用收入做出自己的假設，您將了解我們的情況- 對於您的問題是費用還是收入，我們認為我們將如何實現這一目標。

I mean in terms of what those dynamics look like.

我的意思是這些動態是什麼樣的。

The one thing I just do want to say though, when we think about returns, we feel really great about the prospects here.

不過，我只想說一件事，當我們考慮回報時，我們對這裡的前景感到非常滿意。

But as I said, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves.

但正如我所說，我們不想超越自己。

We've been very, very careful to make sure that we've got the latitude to spend whatever it is we need on all of the risk and operational things.

我們一直非常非常小心，以確保我們有足夠的自由度在所有風險和營運方面花費我們所需的一切。

And so that's still the case.

情況仍然如此。

And so even though we feel great about the progress and I've tried to give an indication of how we feel about that.

因此，儘管我們對進展感到滿意，而且我也試著表明我們對此的感受。

We have to maintain that flexibility because that is a gating factor and the top priority.

我們必須保持這種靈活性，因為這是一個限制因素，也是重中之重。

The second thing is, we've been very careful not to provide multiyear guidance for expenses.

第二件事是，我們一直非常小心，不提供多年的支出指導。

And that's because as we continue to peel the sending back, we find opportunities.

那是因為當我們繼續剝離回送時，我們發現了機會。

We tried to also lay out in the presentation the point that we're not just reducing expenses and funding inflationary increases across the place, we're increasing the level of investment in technology and other things.

我們還試圖在演示中闡明這一點，即我們不僅要減少開支並為各地的通膨增長提供資金，而且還要增加對技術和其他事物的投資水平。

And as we look towards the success that we have in different parts of the company as we invest.

當我們投資時，我們期待公司不同部門的成功。

So as we see the positive results, we want the ability to make those decisions at each point in time as to how much more we want to invest.

因此，當我們看到正面的結果時，我們希望能夠在每個時間點做出我們想要增加多少投資的決定。

So yes, if we didn't increase the level of investment or if we kind of cap that out, you could sit here and say, yes, lots of things -- margins we continue to expand, returns would expand, you could get to some pretty significant numbers.

所以，是的，如果我們不增加投資水平，或者如果我們限制投資水平，你可以坐在這裡說，是的，很多事情——我們的利潤率會繼續擴大，回報率會擴大，你可以得到一些相當重要的數字。

But we're building the company for the future.

但我們正在為未來打造公司。

And as long as we see the payoffs there, we want the latitude to do that.

只要我們看到了回報，我們就希望有這樣做的自由。

So we're very conscious of what our investors expect from us.

因此，我們非常清楚投資者對我們的期望。

We're very conscious of what we think the franchise can produce, but we do intend to build both a higher returning at a higher growth franchise, and you're just starting to see that.

我們非常清楚我們認為特許經營可以產生什麼，但我們確實打算在更高成長的特許經營中建立更高的回報，而你才剛開始看到這一點。

And how that plays out from a timing perspective, that's what we're trying hard not to get boxed in on.

從時間的角度來看，這將如何發揮作用，這就是我們努力避免陷入困境的原因。

Totally get it, and it does feel like there's a bit of a shift at the margin to Rev led profitability growth, in my opinion, which is great, a lot of low-hanging fruits already out on the expense side.

完全明白了，在我看來，確實感覺邊際上有一些轉變，轉向了以Rev為主導的盈利增長，這很好，很多容易實現的成果已經在費用方面實現了。

And then just lastly, on credit card.

最後是信用卡。

I understand get it more mature.

我明白讓它變得更加成熟。

There was the announcement during the quarter, I believe, that Ray Fisher is stepping down.

我相信，本季有消息指出雷費雪將辭職。

Could you help us understand what drove that decisioning.

您能否幫助我們了解是什麼推動了這個決定？

And new yes, and new management and what I assume it's going to be the same goals and everything, but if we could just have a few thoughts on that whole situation.

是的，還有新的管理層，我認為這將是相同的目標和一切，但如果我們能對整個情況有一些想法的話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, yes, yes.

是的，是的，是的。

So listen, Ray, I've known Ray a long time.

聽著，雷，我認識雷很久了。

We've worked together for many, many years.

我們已經合作很多很多年了。

When I came to, Wells, literally, the -- I think it was the first or second day I was at Wells, the person who was running the card business told me that they had already accepted another job outside the company.

當我來到威爾斯時，從字面上看，我想那是我在威爾斯的第一天或第二天，負責信用卡業務的人告訴我，他們已經接受了公司外的另一份工作。

So if that had nothing, I wasn't a part of that change.

所以，如果那沒有什麼，那我就不是那個改變的一部分。

That was a decision that was made.

這就是我們所做的決定。

And so ask Ray to join us and he's done a fabulous job.

所以請雷加入我們，他做得非常好。

Ray, I think -- I don't know his exact age.

雷，我想──我不知道他的確切年齡。

I want to say

我想說

--

--

We'd give away his exact age, but he's old enough to deserve to retire.

我們會透露他的確切年齡，但他已經足夠老了，應該退休了。

Yes.

是的。

Very well -- very well put.

很好——說得很好。

He's done a great job.

他做得很好。

And so this is a very natural progression and something that we've talked about relative to his timing and what his expectations are.

所以這是一個非常自然的進展，我們已經討論過與他的時間安排和他的期望有關的事情。

So -- we've got a great team in place that he's built out.

所以——我們已經建立了一支由他組成的優秀團隊。

We've recruited a great leader from outside the company, [Etta Lee], who joins us, I believe, sometime in February.

我們從公司外部招募了一位出色的領導者，[Etta Lee]，我相信她會在二月的某個時候加入我們。

And the strategy is the same, nothing is going to change.

而且策略是一樣的，不會有任何改變。

We've had lots of conversations about what we're doing and what the opportunities are.

我們就我們正在做什麼以及機會是什麼進行了很多對話。

And I think I'm super excited about both what we've done, but continuing to execute along the lines that we've laid out for you all.

我想我對我們所做的事情感到非常興奮，但會繼續按照我們為大家製定的路線執行。

Okay.

好的。

And you'll announce the new head when the time is appropriate, right?

到了適當的時候你就會宣布新的領導，對嗎？

We have already -- we have Betsy, John will send you the press release.

我們已經—我們有貝特西，約翰將向您發送新聞稿。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sorry about that.

對此感到抱歉。

I think we sent it out internally, and there was an article this past week pointing it out.

我想我們在內部發出了它，上周有一篇文章指出了這一點。

Then picked it up.

然後把它撿起來了。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Obviously, rate volatility is quite high here.

顯然，這裡的利率波動相當高。

So how do we think about the rate sensitivity to your net interest income if rates end up being a little bit higher, obviously, it seems like a structurally good, but help frame some of the sensitivity to the guidance that you put out there from changes in rates.

那麼，如果利率最終稍微高一點，我們如何考慮利率對淨利息收入的敏感性，顯然，這在結構上似乎是好的，但有助於構建對您從變化中提出的指導的一些敏感性在費率方面。

Yes, Matt.

是的，馬特。

And obviously, we'll update the sensitivity in the Q or the K, I guess, when you get it.

顯然，我想，當您得到它時，我們將更新 Q 或 K 中的靈敏度。

But we're still marginally asset-sensitive, as I said in my script.

但正如我在腳本中所說，我們仍然對資產有些敏感。

But the balance sheet has sort of naturally gotten less sensitive over the last number of quarters.

但在過去幾個季度中，資產負債表自然變得不那麼敏感。

So rates coming down, as I said in the guidance is a slight headwind to sort of our estimates.

因此，正如我在指導中所說，利率下降對我們的估計來說是一個輕微的阻力。

And if they hold a little bit higher than what was in the forward, then I think that will be a slight positive.

如果他們的持球率比前鋒高一點，那麼我認為這將是一個輕微的正面影響。

So obviously, we're a little -- we've become less rate sensitive over the last number of quarters, but it's still a little bit asset sensitive.

很明顯，我們在過去幾季中對利率的敏感度有所降低，但對資產仍然有點敏感。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on trading, obviously, you guys have been executing really well for a few years now.

然後就交易而言，顯然，你們幾年來一直表現得非常好。

And I don't want to make too much of just one quarter.

我不想只用四分之一就賺太多。

But even if we strip out the fair value adjustment, the trading was still down year-over-year.

但即使我們剔除公允價值調整，交易量仍較去年同期下降。

Obviously, the peers are kind of implying up, I don't know, 15%, 20% plus just maybe talk a bit about was there anything unusual this quarter that [far weak on] trading.

顯然，同行們有點暗示，我不知道，15%、20%，再加上可能只是談論一下本季是否有任何異常情況導致交易[遠弱]。

And again, I appreciate last year was a strong quarter, but it did jump out.

再說一遍，我很欣賞去年的季度表現強勁，但它確實脫穎而出。

Yes.

是的。

It was really about last year being a strong quarter than this year being a weak quarter.

事實上，去年是一個強勁的季度，而今年是一個疲軟的季度。

Nothing's changed.

什麼都沒有改變。

There's nothing abnormal underneath the surface.

表面之下沒有任何異常。

Nothing's changed in sort of our approach there.

我們的做法沒有任何改變。

And obviously, the businesses are quite different when you look at peers.

顯然，當你觀察同行時，這些企業是完全不同的。

So I do think you have to look through the results a little bit given the global nature and maybe the risk that some of the others take.

因此，我確實認為，考慮到全球性以及其他一些國家所承擔的風險，你必須仔細研究結果。

Okay.

好的。

Actually, just on that last point.

事實上，就最後一點而言。

Obviously, we know you're more domestic, but your comment that others might take more risk.

顯然，我們知道您更注重家庭生活，但您認為其他人可能會承擔更多風險。

Like how do you think you're being more conservative in trading?

例如你認為你在交易中變得更保守？

Well, I just said you have to look at the risk they're taking.

好吧，我只是說你必須看看他們所冒的風險。

I'm not suggesting that I'm not going to -- I'm not trying to say anybody is taking more risk or not.

我並不是說我不會——我並不是想說任何人是否願意承擔更多風險。

But -- but when you look at our business, we've been very, very disciplined about sort of the risk appetite that we have across the trading businesses.

但是，但是當你審視我們的業務時，我們對整個交易業務的風險偏好非常非常嚴格。

And much of the focus has been in places that are balance sheet friendly, like FX, given the asset cap and other areas.

考慮到資產上限和其他領域，大部分焦點都集中在資產負債表友善的領域，例如外匯。

What we're saying is just that the size of our business is materially smaller than the biggest folks out there.

我們所說的只是我們的業務規模比外面最大的公司小得多。

The complexity of the products is very, very different, both because of the global nature, but also some of the things we do.

產品的複雜性非常非常不同，這既是因為全球化的本質，也是因為我們所做的一些事情。

So it's just that we just have a smaller, less complex business.

所以我們只是擁有規模較小、複雜度較低的業務。

David Long, Raymond James.

大衛朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

As it relates to auto, just seems like a bit of a strategic shift after three years of seeing that portfolio decline.

就汽車而言，在經歷了三年投資組合下降之後，這似乎是一個策略轉變。

What are you seeing in that business that is increasing your appetite to grow it here forward?

您在該業務中看到了什麼，從而增強了您在此發展業務的興趣？

Yes.

是的。

I wouldn't position it as a strategic shift.

我不會將其定位為策略轉變。

But a couple of years ago now, we took some tightening actions based on credit tightening act.

但幾年前，我們根據信貸緊縮法案採取了一些緊縮行動。

There were two things going on.

有兩件事正在發生。

We took some credit tighten actioning tightening actions based on what we were seeing as what was happening in the market, and that had an impact on originations.

我們根據我們所看到的市場狀況採取了一些信貸緊縮行動，這對資金來源產生了影響。

We also saw some pretty significant spread compression at different points over the last couple of years.

在過去的幾年裡，我們還在不同的時間點看到了一些相當顯著的價差壓縮。

And so our focus is not to be big.

所以我們的重點不是做大。

Our focus is to have a good returning sort of profitable business there.

我們的重點是在那裡擁有良好的回報率和盈利業務。

And so we backed away in certain areas.

因此我們在某些​​領域有所退縮。

I think over time, that starts to evolve and change and spread, we still -- these spreads are a little bit better than they were a couple of years ago in some pockets.

我認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況開始演變、改變和傳播，我們仍然——這些利差在某些地方比幾年前要好一些。

And so that's part of it.

這就是其中的一部分。

Second, Charlie highlighted it as well.

其次，查理也強調了這一點。

We are continuing to invest in the auto business.

我們將繼續投資汽車業務。

We've been continuing to build out better capabilities to be a little bit more of a full-spectrum lender across different pockets.

我們一直在繼續打造更好的能力，成為跨不同領域的全方位貸款機構。

That's a very small piece of what you're seeing in there.

這只是你在那裡看到的一小部分。

And then obviously, the deal we signed with Volkswagen out hasn't had any impact at this point.

顯然，我們與大眾汽車簽署的協議目前還沒有產生任何影響。

That will start to have a small impact as we get later in the year.

今年晚些時候，這將開始產生較小的影響。

And so it's still relatively small growth in the originations.

因此，起源的成長仍然相對較小。

We're only talking a couple of billion year-on-year.

我們只是談論同比幾十億。

And so we'll see as it progresses throughout the year.

因此，我們將看到它全年的進展。

Got it.

知道了。

And then the second question I had relates to the investment securities portfolio repositioning.

我的第二個問題涉及投資證券投資組合的重新定位。

And do you have certain internal payback maximum that you're willing to look at?

您是否願意考慮特定的內部報酬上限？

Or do you need to have a gain elsewhere in the bank before you look to take a loss in making some adjustments.

或者，您是否需要在銀行其他地方獲得收益，然後才能進行一些調整以承受損失。

What is the thought process that you go through to get you to the decision to actually act.

為了讓你做出實際行動的決定，你經歷了什麼樣的思考過程？

Yes.

是的。

Look, I think we've acted twice.

聽著，我想我們已經演過兩次戲了。

We're in the third and the fourth quarter as we've sort of looked at different opportunities.

我們正處於第三和第四季度，因為我們已經在尋找不同的機會。

We've been pretty disciplined about payback periods so far in total, it's roughly a 2, 2.5-year payback period across both of the repositionings we've done.

到目前為止，我們對投資回收期的要求非常嚴格，我們所做的兩次重新定位的投資回收期約為 2 年、2.5 年。

Could we do something has a longer payback period maybe, but it's something we'll continue to evaluate based on what we're seeing in the market.

我們是否可以做一些投資回收期更長的事情，但我們將根據我們在市場上看到的情況繼續評估這一點。

But so far, we've been pretty disciplined about when we do it.

但到目前為止，我們在這樣做時一直非常自律。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

Mike, a follow-up for you on your guide for NII of plus 1% to plus 3% for 2025 full year.

Mike，您的 2025 年全年 NII 增加 1% 至 3% 指南的後續內容。

Can you give us the guide for NII ex markets for 2025.

您能給我們 2025 年 NII 前市場指南嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Vivek, that's not something we've historically provided.

Vivek，這不是我們歷史上提供的。

Again, given the size of our markets business and the contribution, and obviously, it's very sensitive to where short rates will end up going.

同樣，考慮到我們市場業務的規模和貢獻，顯然，它對短期利率最終走向非常敏感。

There is an improvement embedded in the guide for trading-related NII.

與交易相關的 NII 指南中嵌入了一項改進。

That becomes -- that is very sensitive to where the -- where rates end up going.

這對利率最終走向非常敏感。

So it's not something we're going to disaggregate at this point.

所以我們現在不會分解它。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Charlie.

查理.

Can you guys share with us, obviously, there's geopolitical risks all around.

你們能否與我們分享一下，顯然，地緣政治風險無所不在。

And I think many investors, obviously, are aware of those.

我認為許多投資者顯然都意識到了這些。

Can you list for us the risks that you guys talk about outside of the geopolitical risk when you're running your business, what are the things -- because the outlook, I think we all share the optimism you and your peers for the upcoming year for banking.

您能否為我們列出您在經營業務時談論的地緣政治風險之外的風險，這些風險是什麼——因為前景，我想我們都和您和您的同行一樣對來年的樂觀態度用於銀行業務。

And what are the risks, though, that could maybe sort of a curve ball at us?

然而，這可能會為我們帶來哪些風險呢？

Well, the biggest risk that we have that we spend the most time talking about is cyber at this point, just away from the normal taking around credit, interest rate, operational risk, all the types of things you would talk about.

好吧，我們現在花最多時間討論的最大風險是網路風險，與正常的信貸、利率、操作風險以及您會談論的所有類型的風險不同。

And so -- which is why we spend so much time on that and have the level of investment that we have and put the resources into it.

因此，這就是為什麼我們在這方面花費瞭如此多的時間，並進行瞭如此高的投資並投入了資源。

Listen, as I said, I think in my remarks, we feel optimistic about where we are going into 2025, both because of where the economy is and the strength that has existed as well as the business-friendly approach from the incoming administration.

聽著，正如我所說，我認為在我的演講中，我們對 2025 年的前景感到樂觀，這既是因為經濟狀況、現有的實力，也是因為即將上任的政府採取了有利於商業的做法。

What can -- I mean, you know bad things can happen.

我的意思是，你知道壞事可能會發生。

It could be related to conflict, could be related to a surprise in the market.

它可能與衝突有關，也可能與市場的意外有關。

I mean those things are out there.

我的意思是那些東西就在那裡。

We're prepared for them as we think about just the way we run the company, but there's no one risk that sticks out relative to just the things that you would do relative to how you run the business.

當我們考慮我們經營公司的方式時，我們已經做好了準備，但與您將要做的事情以及您經營業務的方式相比，沒有任何一種風險是突出的。

And the most important thing for us relative to just risk management and the performance of the company away from these big tail risks is the strength of the US economy.

對我們來說，相對於風險管理和遠離這些大尾部風險的公司表現而言，最重要的是美國經濟的實力。

The strength of the US economy will drive the levels of success for our customers, both on the consumer and the wholesale side.

美國經濟的強勁勢頭將推動我們的客戶在消費者和批發方面取得成功。

And then we follow from their success.

然後我們跟隨他們的成功。

So anything that risks that is a risk for us.

因此，任何有風險的事情對我們來說都是風險。

Very good.

非常好。

No, very clear.

不，非常清楚。

As a follow-up, and I apologize if this is putting the cart before the horse, you guys have obviously made great progress in resolving your regulatory issues.

作為後續行動，如果這是本末倒置，我深表歉意，你們顯然在解決監管問題方面取得了很大進展。

You talked on the call today about the OCC lifting, obviously, the cease-and-desist order earlier last year.

您今天在電話會議上談到了 OCC 取消去年早些時候的停止令。

And so when we get beyond these issues for you folks, obviously, everybody talks about the asset cap and the Federal Reserve's cease-and-desist order.

因此，當我們為你們解決這些問題時，顯然，每個人都在談論資產上限和聯準會的停止令。

Can we talk about strategic planning going forward in terms of how you might -- because you have plenty of excess capital, how you might consider acquisitions?

我們能否談談您未來的策略規劃—因為您擁有大量過剩資本，您可能會如何考慮收購？

And in particular, what I'm interested in is pre-pandemic and pre-year asset cap Wells deposit market share was over 10%, which as we all know, you're not -- no bank is permitted to buy a depository with the market share is over 10%.

特別是，我感興趣的是大流行前和年前資產上限富國銀行存款市場份額超過 10%，眾所周知，你不是——任何銀行都不允許購買存款機構市場佔有率超過10%。

But now with the growth in the industry's deposits, you guys have been flat, you're below 10%.

但現在隨著產業存款的成長，你們一直持平，你們低於10%。

So would there -- and again, I apologize if this is the cart before the horse, but is there any consideration once this is all behind you, as you guys look to grow through maybe acquisitions, depositories or investment banks?

那麼，如果這是本末倒置，我再次表示歉意，但是一旦這一切都過去了，你們是否會考慮透過收購、存款或投資銀行來實現成長？

Or how are you guys looking at it from that standpoint?

或者說，從這個角度來看，你們是如何看待這個問題的？

Yeah, hey, Gerard, it's Mike.

是的，嘿，傑拉德，我是麥克。

Look, we're 100% focused on all of the organic growth opportunities we have across each of the businesses.

看，我們 100% 專注於每項業務的所有有機成長機會。

And that's -- and the plan that we have been executing that started when he got here five years ago is the same plan we're going to be executing post asset cap.

那就是——我們從他五年前來到這裡時就開始執行的計劃與我們將要執行的資產上限後的計劃相同。

And I think it just involves basic execution across all the priorities, whether it's in card, wealth, IB, capital markets, et cetera, et cetera.

我認為它只涉及所有優先事項的基本執行，無論是卡片、財富、IB、資本市場等等。

And so that's our focus and -- because we think there's a tremendous amount of opportunity to build off of the positions we have in each of these businesses across the country.

這就是我們的重點，因為我們認為有大量的機會可以利用我們在全國各地這些業務中所擁有的職位。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

You addressed -- in response to an earlier question, changes in the incentive framework across the branches.

在回答先前的問題時，您提到了各分支機構激勵框架的變化。

And there is this debate about the extent and how quickly an asset cap removal would kick start and allow for balance sheet growth.

關於資產上限取消的程度和速度以及資產負債表成長的啟動程度存在爭議。

But I'm curious to hear if you think there are still operational/cultural constraints that you need to address to really capitalize on the growth opportunities across your businesses in response to the sales scandal, you changed the compensation structure of the branches.

但我很想知道，您是否認為仍然需要解決營運/文化限制，才能真正利用整個企業的成長機會來應對銷售醜聞，您是否改變了分支機構的薪酬結構。

As you mentioned, you've built in safeguards to prevent abuses and maybe there is more of a cultural predilection to be more risk averse.

正如您所提到的，您已經建立了保護措施來防止濫用行為，也許存在更多的文化偏好，更傾向於規避風險。

But do you feel like these are factors you still need to address to sort of remove the shackles, create incentives that help you grow as you change more to a more of a growth mindset?

但是，您是否覺得這些因素仍然是您需要解決的因素，以消除束縛，創造激勵措施，幫助您在更多地轉變為更多的成長心態時成長？

If you could just maybe elaborate on those questions, please.

請您詳細說明一下這些問題。

Yes.

是的。

Let me take a shot at it.

讓我來嘗試一下。

So I think when we think about it is we are -- and we've been this way since I got here, which is very deliberate about how we go about business expansion.

所以我認為，當我們思考這一點時，我們是——自從我來到這裡以來，我們一直都是這樣，這對我們如何進行業務擴張非常深思熟慮。

And whether it's an area like the card business where we started five years ago or the CIB, whether it's in trading or banking or in the private credit space that we're offering something in the direct lending world for our commercial.

無論是我們五年前開始的信用卡業務還是 CIB 等領域，無論是貿易、銀行還是私人信貸領域，我們都在直接貸款領域為我們的商業提供一些東西。

We do -- we're very focused on doing all of these in a very controlled way with the right risk framework and with all the right processes in place behind it.

我們確實這樣做——我們非常專注於以非常受控的方式完成所有這些工作，並採用正確的風險框架和背後所有正確的流程。

And so I said in my remarks, we're not done yet in terms of all the things we have to deliver.

所以我在發言中說，我們必須完成的所有事情都還沒有完成。

But we are a very, very different company relative to the types of controls that exist today versus then.

但相對於當時存在的控制類型，我們是一家非常非常不同的公司。

And so it's having those controls in place.

因此，這些控制措施已經就位。

It's just doing the testing and seeing that they're actually effective is what gives us the confidence to grow.

只是進行測試並看到它們實際上有效，這給了我們成長的信心。

And so when we talk about the opportunities that we have and the things that we're doing, it's because we have the confidence in those things that we put in place.

因此，當我們談論我們擁有的機會和我們正在做的事情時，是因為我們對我們所做的事情充滿信心。

So when you talk about the shackles off and where we go, we just -- I mean, those aren't things that we talk about.

因此，當你談論擺脫束縛以及我們要去哪裡時，我們只是 - 我的意思是，這些不是我們談論的事情。

Those aren't things that we think about.

這些不是我們考慮的事情。

What we think about is that we are very disciplined in our approach in a very linear way towards where we are today versus where we want to go.

我們的想法是，我們的方法非常自律，以一種非常線性的方式實現我們今天的目標和我們想要達到的目標。

And when we have the ability to grow the balance sheet from this point of view, we would expect to see the same.

從這個角度來看，當我們有能力擴大資產負債表時，我們預計會看到相同的情況。

It's not -- we're not going to sit here and say the shackles are off.

不是──我們不會坐在這裡說枷鎖已經解除。

So therefore, the following 10 things are going to change materially.

因此，以下 10 件事將會發生重大變化。

It's going to be disciplined, thoughtful piece by piece in a very controlled way and only in places that are supported by the controls that we have in place.

它將以一種非常受控的方式，按部就班、深思熟慮，並且只在我們現有控制支援的地方進行。

Well, listen, everyone, thank you very much.

嗯，聽著，大家，非常感謝。

We appreciate it, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

我們對此表示感謝，我們將在下個季度與您交談。

Take care.

小心。