富國銀行 (WFC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾 (John Campbell)。主席先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss first quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our first quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com.

早安.感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，我們的執行長 Charlie Scharf；我們的財務長 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第一季的業績並回答您的問題。此通話正在錄音。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第一季收益資料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和簡報，可在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上取得。

I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial reference, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

我還想提醒您，我們可能在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明有風險和不確定性。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素，其中包括今天提交的包含我們盈利材料的 8-K 表格。有關任何非 GAAP 財務參考的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的調節，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益資料中找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在把電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John. I'll make some brief comments about our first quarter results and then update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review our results in more detail before we take your questions.

謝謝，約翰。我將對我們第一季的業績發表一些簡短的評論，然後向您介紹我們的優先事項的最新情況。然後，在回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給麥克，以便更詳細地查看我們的結果。

Let me start with some first quarter highlights. Our solid results reflect the progress we're making to improve and diversify our financial performance and the continued strength in the U.S. economy. It's gratifying to see the investments we're making across the franchise contributing to higher revenue versus the fourth quarter, as an increase in noninterest income more than offset an expected decline in net interest income. Noninterest income also benefited from higher equity markets, which benefited our Wealth and Investment Management business.

讓我從第一季的一些亮點開始。我們堅實的業績反映了我們在改善和多元化財務表現方面所取得的進展以及美國經濟的持續強勁。令人欣慰的是，我們在整個特許經營範圍內進行的投資為第四季度帶來了更高的收入，因為非利息收入的增長遠遠抵消了淨利息收入的預期下降。非利息收入也受惠於股市上漲，這有利於我們的財富和投資管理業務。

Net charge-offs were higher than a year ago as expected and stable from the fourth quarter. Credit trends remain generally consistent. Consumer delinquencies continue to perform as we've forecasted, and year-over-year growth in consumer spend remains consistent with prior quarters. In our commercial portfolios, the weakness we see continues to be in certain commercial office properties, but our expectations have not significantly changed versus what we anticipated last quarter. Mike will discuss the specific items that drove an increase in expenses from a year ago, but we continued to execute on our efficiency initiatives, including reducing headcount, which has declined every quarter since the third quarter of 2020.

淨沖銷額高於去年同期預期，從第四季開始保持穩定。信貸趨勢整體保持一致。消費者拖欠行為繼續按照我們的預測進行，消費者支出的同比增長與前幾季度保持一致。在我們的商業投資組合中，我們看到的弱點仍然存在於某些商業辦公物業，但我們的預期與上季度的預期相比沒有顯著變化。麥克將討論導致費用較一年前增加的具體項目，但我們繼續執行效率舉措，包括減少員工人數，自 2020 年第三季以來，員工人數每季都在下降。

Average commercial and consumer loans were both down from the fourth quarter as higher rates are impacting demand and we are continuing to reduce our exposure in certain portfolios. Average deposits were relatively stable from the fourth quarter as growth in interest-bearing deposits offset lower noninterest-bearing deposits. Our capital position remains strong and returning excess capital to shareholders remains a priority. As we stated on our last earnings call, we expect to repurchase more common stock this year than we did in 2023. In the first quarter, we repurchased a total of $6.1 billion in common stock, and our average common shares outstanding declined 6% from a year ago.

平均商業和消費貸款均較第四季有所下降，因為利率上升影響了需求，而且我們正在繼續減少某些投資組合的風險敞口。由於計息存款的成長抵消了無息存款的減少，第四季度平均存款相對穩定。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，向股東返還多餘資本仍是我們的首要任務。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說，我們預計今年將回購比2023 年更多的普通股。年下降了6%。

Now let me update you on the progress we're making on our strategic priorities, starting with our risk and control work. Earlier this year, the OCC terminated a consent order issued in 2016 regarding sales practices misconduct. The closure of this order was an important milestone as it is confirmation that we operate much differently today around sales practices. As I repeatedly said, our risk and control work remains our top priority, and closing consent orders is an important sign of progress.

現在讓我向您介紹我們在策略重點方面取得的最新進展，首先是我們的風險和控制工作。今年早些時候，OCC 終止了 2016 年發布的有關銷售行為不當行為的同意令。該訂單的完成是一個重要的里程碑，因為它證實了我們今天的銷售做法與以往截然不同。正如我多次所說的，我們的風險和控制工作仍然是我們的首要任務，關閉同意令是取得進展的重要指標。

This is the sixth consent order that our regulators have terminated since I joined Wells Fargo in 2019. Building our risk and control framework is a continuous ongoing effort, and as we implement changes, we track effectiveness along the way. The numerous internal metrics we track show that the work is clearly improving our control environment, and we see that we are completing interim deliverables, but we will not be satisfied until all of our work is complete. So it will remain our top priority and our approach will not change.

這是自 2019 年我加入富國銀行以來，監管機構終止的第六份同意令。我們追蹤的眾多內部指標表明，這項工作明顯改善了我們的控制環境，我們看到我們正在完成中期可交付成果，但在所有工作完成之前我們不會感到滿意。因此，這仍然是我們的首要任務，我們的方法不會改變。

As I highlighted in my recent annual letter, we have added approximately 10,000 people across numerous risk and control-related groups, and we're spending over $2.5 billion more per year than in 2018 in these areas, and we are a stronger, better company for our customers, communities and employees. While we're moving forward with confidence, I will repeat what I've said in the past. Regulatory pressures on banks' long-standing issues such as ours is high. And until we complete our work and until it is validated by our regulators, we remain at risk of further regulatory actions.

正如我在最近的年度信中強調的那樣，我們在眾多風險和控制相關團隊中增加了約10,000 名員工，而且我們每年在這些領域的支出比2018 年增加了25 億美元以上，我們是一家更強大、更好的公司為了我們的客戶、社區和員工。當我們充滿信心地前進時，我將重複我過去所說的話。對於像我們這樣的銀行長期存在的問題，監管壓力很大。在我們完成工作並得到監管機構驗證之前，我們仍然面臨進一步監管行動的風險。

Additionally, as we implement heightened controls and oversight, new issues could be found and these may result in regulatory actions. At the same time, we're making progress on our risk and control work, we're executing on our strategic priorities to better serve our customers and help drive higher returns over time. We continue to introduce attractive new products as we build our credit card business. Last month, we launched Autograph Journey, designed for frequent travelers who could earn points wherever they book travel. Our new product offerings continue to drive strong credit card spend, up approximately $5 billion or 14% from a year ago.

此外，當我們加強控制和監督時，可能會發現新問題，並可能導致採取監管行動。同時，我們在風險和控制工作方面取得了進展，我們正在執行我們的策略重點，以更好地服務我們的客戶，並隨著時間的推移幫助推動更高的回報。在建立信用卡業務的過程中，我們不斷推出有吸引力的新產品。上個月，我們推出了 Autograph Journey，專為常旅客設計，無論他們在哪裡預訂旅行都可以賺取積分。我們的新產品繼續推動強勁的信用卡支出，比一年前增加了約 50 億美元，即 14%。

We continue to make investments in talent and technology to strengthen Corporate and Investment Banking. More than 50 new senior hires have joined our CIB since 2019, with many of these in key coverage and product groups within banking. In February, Doug Braunstein, who has more than 35 years of industry experience, joined Wells Fargo as a Vice Chairman. Doug is a world-class banker, and he's working alongside the great team he's assembled to continue to grow the franchise. In addition, given the breadth of Doug's experience, he's also providing counsel on broader business issues beyond client development.

我們繼續對人才和技術進行投資，以加強企業和投資銀行業務。自 2019 年以來，已有 50 多名新高階員工加入我們的 CIB，其中許多人屬於銀行業的關鍵覆蓋範圍和產品組。 2 月，擁有超過 35 年行業經驗的道格·布勞恩斯坦 (Doug Braunstein) 加入富國銀行，擔任副主席。道格是一位世界級的銀行家，他正在與他組建的優秀團隊一起工作，以繼續發展這項業務。此外，鑑於道格的豐富經驗，他還就客戶開發之外的更廣泛的業務問題提供諮詢。

As we look forward, it's always helpful to be grounded in the facts. We continue to see strength in the U.S. economy. Spending patterns of consumers using our debit and credit cards remain generally consistent and continue to grow year-over-year. Consumer credit is performing as we expect, wholesale credit continues to perform well, and our views around commercial real estate have not significantly changed since last quarter. These are all positives. In addition, we remain committed and confident in our ability to increase efficiencies across the enterprise. And areas we have targeted for investment such as credit card, investment banking and trading are performing well.

當我們展望未來時，立足事實總是有幫助的。我們繼續看到美國經濟強勁。使用我們的金融卡和信用卡的消費者的支出模式大致保持一致，並逐年持續成長。消費信貸的表現符合我們的預期，批發信貸持續表現良好，自上季以來我們對商業房地產的看法沒有顯著改變。這些都是正面的。此外，我們仍然致力於提高整個企業的效率，並對我們的能力充滿信心。我們瞄準的投資領域，如信用卡、投資銀行和交易，都表現良好。

We are beginning to see early signs of share and fee growth, which will be important as we diversify our revenues and reduce net interest income as a percentage of revenue. And we remain bullish on opportunities across our other businesses, again, more positives. Having said that, markets and rates will likely remain volatile. And as risk managers, we are prepared if trends were to change. We've historically managed credit through multiple cycles and believe that the actions we've taken over the last several years position us well. We have strong capital and liquidity positions.

我們開始看到份額和費用成長的早期跡象，這對於我們實現收入多元化並降低淨利息收入佔收入的百分比非常重要。我們仍然看好我們其他業務的機會，同樣，更積極的一面。話雖如此，市場和利率可能仍將波動。身為風險管理者，我們會為趨勢改變做好準備。我們一直透過多個週期管理信貸，並相信我們過去幾年採取的行動使我們處於有利地位。我們擁有強大的資本和流動性狀況。

As we're building many of our businesses, we have done so within a consistent level of risk appetite. And our business model and franchise value differentiates us from most of who we compete with, regardless of the environment. So what does all of this mean for our outlook? Simply said, our views haven't changed from last quarter. While we could look at specific data points on a specific date and alter our guidance, there is not enough of a consistent pattern to change our views, but what we see is helpful.

當我們建立許多業務時，我們是在一致的風險偏好水準下完成的。無論環境如何，我們的商業模式和特許經營價值使我們有別於大多數競爭對手。那麼這一切對我們的前景意味著什麼呢？簡而言之，我們的觀點與上季相比並沒有改變。雖然我們可以查看特定日期的特定數據點並改變我們的指導，但沒有足夠的一致模式來改變我們的觀點，但我們看到的內容是有幫助的。

Our focus remains the same. We are transforming Wells Fargo and are investing to build a well-controlled, best-growing and higher-returning company while we work to become more efficient. I'm pleased with the progress we've made, and I'm optimistic about the future opportunities ahead.

我們的重點保持不變。我們正在改造富國銀行，並投資建立一家控制良好、成長最快、回報更高的公司，同時努力提高效率。我對我們所取得的進展感到滿意，並對未來的機會感到樂觀。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the first quarter was $4.6 billion or $1.20 per diluted common share. Our first quarter results included $284 million or $0.06 per share for the FDIC special assessment as a result of the regional bank failures last year. Recall last quarter, our results included $1.9 billion for the special assessment, and this additional amount reflects recent updates provided by the FDIC, including potential recoveries, which were highlighted in their disclosure. The ultimate amount of our special assessment may continue to change as the FDIC determines the actual losses and recoveries to the deposit insurance fund.

謝謝你，查理，大家早安。第一季淨利為 46 億美元，即每股稀釋普通股 1.20 美元。我們第一季的業績包括 2.84 億美元或每股 0.06 美元的 FDIC 特別評估，該評估是由於去年地區銀行倒閉而進行的。回想一下上季度，我們的業績包括 19 億美元的特別評估，這一額外金額反映了 FDIC 提供的最新更新，包括潛在的追償，這在其披露中得到了強調。隨著 FDIC 確定存款保險基金的實際損失和收回情況，我們特別評估的最終金額可能會繼續變化。

Turning to Slide 4. Net interest income declined $1.1 billion or 8% from a year ago due to the impact of higher interest rates on funding costs, including the impact of customers migrating to higher-yielding deposit products as well as lower loan balances, partially offset by higher yields on earning assets. First quarter results were largely as expected with loan balances a little lower and deposit balances in the businesses a little higher than our expectations. Our full year net interest income guidance has not changed from last quarter, and we still expect 2024 net interest income to be approximately 7% to 9% lower than 2023. We also continue to expect net interest income will trough towards the end of this year. It is still early in the year and, ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earn will depend on a variety of factors, many of which are uncertain, including deposit balances, mix and pricing, the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve and loan demand.

轉向投影片 4。資產的較高收益率所抵銷。第一季業績基本上符合預期，貸款餘額略低於我們的預期，存款餘額略高於我們的預期。我們的全年淨利息收入指引與上季相比沒有變化，我們仍然預計 2024 年淨利息收入將比 2023 年低約 7% 至 9%。現在還處於今年初期，最終我們賺取的淨利息收入將取決於多種因素，其中許多因素是不確定的，包括存款餘額、結構和定價、利率的絕對水平和形狀收益率曲線和貸款需求。

On Slide 5, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans were down from both the fourth quarter and a year ago. Credit card loans continue to grow, almost other categories declined. I'll highlight specific drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 69 basis points from a year ago to over 6%, reflecting the higher interest rate environment. Average deposits declined 1% from a year ago, reflecting lower deposits in our consumer businesses, as customers continued spending and reallocating cash into higher-yielding alternatives.

在幻燈片 5 上，我們重點介紹了貸款和存款。平均貸款較第四季和去年同期均有所下降。信用卡貸款持續成長，其他類別幾乎出現下降。在討論我們的營運部門績效時，我將重點放在具體的驅動因素。平均貸款收益率較上年同期上升 69 個基點，達到 6% 以上，反映出較高的利率環境。平均存款較上年同期下降 1%，反映出我們消費業務的存款減少，因為客戶繼續支出並將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品中。

While growth in average deposits from the fourth quarter was modest, we have grown deposits in our commercial businesses for 2 consecutive quarters, which reflected our success in attracting clients' operational deposits. Period-end deposits included in the chart on the bottom of the page were up 2% from the fourth quarter, but some of this growth reflected a temporary increase driven by a quarter end that was on a payday and a holiday. While the pace of growth slowed, our average deposit costs continued to increase as expected, rising 16 basis points from the fourth quarter to 174 basis points with higher deposit costs across most operating segments. Our mix of deposits continue to shift with our percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits declining to 26%.

雖然四季平均存款增幅不大，但商業業務存款已連續兩季成長，反映了我們在吸收客戶經營性存款方面取得了成功。頁面底部圖表中包含的期末存款較第四季度增長了 2%，但部分增長反映了季度末發薪日和假期推動的暫時增長。儘管成長速度放緩，但我們的平均存款成本仍持續按預期成長，較第四季上升 16 個基點至 174 個基點，大多數業務部門的存款成本均較高。我們的存款結構持續變化，無利息存款比例下降至 26%。

Turning to noninterest income on Slide 6. We were pleased with the growth in noninterest income across all of our business segments. Growth in noninterest income more than offset lower net interest income, reflecting a revenue growth from both the fourth quarter and a year ago. Noninterest income was up 17% from a year ago with strong growth in investment advisory fees and brokerage commissions, deposit and lending-related fees, trading and investment banking fees. As Charlie highlighted, we benefited from market conditions as well as the investments we've been making in our businesses. I will highlight the specific drivers of this growth when discussing the segment results.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的非利息收入。非利息收入的成長遠遠抵消了淨利息收入的下降，反映出第四季和去年同期的收入成長。非利息收入年增 17%，其中投資諮詢費和經紀佣金、存款和貸款相關費用、交易和投資銀行費用強勁增長。正如查理所強調的那樣，我們受益於市場狀況以及我們對業務的投資。在討論分部績效時，我將強調這項成長的具體驅動因素。

Turning to expenses on Slide 7. First quarter noninterest expense increased 5% from a year ago, driven by higher operating losses, the FDIC special assessment, an increase in revenue-related compensation predominantly due to higher investment and advisory fees in our Wealth and Investment Management business, and higher technology and equipment expense. These increases were partially offset by the impact of efficiency initiatives, including lower professional and outside services expense, which declined 10% from a year ago. The higher operating losses were driven by customer remediation accruals for a small number of historical matters that we are working hard to get behind us.

轉向幻燈片7 上的支出。第一季非利息支出較上年同期增長5%，原因是營業虧損增加、FDIC 特別評估、收入相關薪酬的增加主要是由於我們的財富和投資部門的投資和諮詢費用增加管理業務，技術設備費用較高。這些成長部分被效率措施的影響所抵消，包括專業和外部服務費用的降低，比一年前下降了 10%。較高的營業損失是由我們正在努力解決的少數歷史問題的客戶補救應計費用造成的。

The increase in personnel expense from the fourth quarter was driven by approximately $650 million of seasonally higher expenses in the first quarter, including payroll taxes, restricted stock expense for retirement-eligible employees and 401(k) matching contributions. Not including expense for the FDIC special assessment in the first quarter, our full year 2024 noninterest expense guidance is unchanged and is still expected to be approximately $52.6 billion.

第四季度人事費用的增加是由於第一季約 6.5 億美元的季節性費用增加所致，其中包括工資稅、符合退休資格的員工的限制性股票費用和 401(k) 配套供款。不包括第一季 FDIC 特別評估的費用，我們的 2024 年全年非利息費用指引保持不變，仍預計約為 526 億美元。

However, we continue to watch a couple of items. Our guidance included $1.3 billion of operating losses for the year, which we still believe is a reasonable estimate even with a higher level of operating losses in the first quarter. However, we have outstanding litigation, regulatory and customer remediation matters that could impact operating losses during the remainder of the year. Also, if market valuations remain at current levels or move higher, that would increase investment in advisory fees and revenue-related compensation could be higher than we assumed in our expense guidance for this year, which would be a good thing. We'll continue to update you as the year progresses.

然而，我們繼續關註一些項目。我們的指引包括今年 13 億美元的營運虧損，即使第一季營運虧損水準較高，我們仍然認為這是一個合理的估計。然而，我們還有未決的訴訟、監管和客戶補救問題，可能會影響今年剩餘時間的營運損失。此外，如果市場估值保持在當前水平或走高，這將增加對諮詢費用的投資，而與收入相關的薪酬可能會高於我們在今年費用指導中的假設，這將是一件好事。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 8. Net loan charge-offs declined 3 basis points from the fourth quarter to 50 basis points of average loans. Credit performance trends were consistent with what we saw last quarter. The decline reflected lower commercial net loan charge-offs, which were down $131 million from the fourth quarter to 25 basis points of average loans. The reduction was driven by lower losses in our commercial real estate office portfolio. We did not see further deterioration in the performance of our CRE office portfolio versus the fourth quarter and, therefore, our expectations have not changed. We continue to expect additional losses in the coming quarters. However, the amounts will likely be uneven and episodic.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的信貸品質。信貸表現趨勢與我們上季看到的一致。這一下降反映了商業淨貸款沖銷的減少，較第四季度減少了 1.31 億美元，平均貸款減少了 25 個基點。這一減少是由於我們的商業房地產辦公室投資組合損失減少所致。與第四季度相比，我們沒有看到我們的商業房地產辦公室投資組合的業績進一步惡化，因此，我們的預期沒有改變。我們繼續預計未來幾季將出現額外損失。然而，金額可能會不均勻且不定期。

Consumer net loan charge-offs continue to increase as expected and were up $28 million from the fourth quarter to 84 basis points of average loans. While auto losses continue to decline, benefiting from the tightening actions we implemented starting in late 2021, credit card losses increased in line with our expectations. Nonperforming assets declined 2% from the fourth quarter, driven by the lower CRE office nonaccruals, reflecting the realization of losses and paydowns in the quarter.

消費者淨貸款沖銷持續如預期增加，較第四季增加 2,800 萬美元，達到平均貸款的 84 個基點。雖然受益於我們從 2021 年底開始實施的緊縮行動，汽車損失持續下降，但信用卡損失的增加符合我們的預期。由於商業房地產辦公大樓非應計費用下降，不良資產較第四季度下降了 2%，反映了本季虧損和付款的實現。

Moving to Slide 9. Based on the consistent credit trends I noted before, our allowance for credit losses was down modestly, driven by declines for commercial real estate and auto loans, partially offset by a higher allowance for credit card loans. The table on the page shows the allowance for credit losses coverage ratio for commercial real estate, including the breakdown of the office portfolio. We didn't increase our allowance for this portfolio in the first quarter, and the coverage ratio in our CIB commercial real estate office portfolio of 11% was stable compared with the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 9。該頁的表格顯示了商業房地產的信用損失準備金覆蓋率，包括辦公室投資組合的細目。一季我們沒有增加對該組合的撥備，CIB商業房地產辦公室組合的覆蓋率為11%，與第四季度相比保持穩定。

Turning to capital and liquidity on Slide 10. Our capital position remains strong, and our CET1 ratio of 11.2% continue to be well above our 8.9% regulatory minimum plus buffers. We repurchased $6.1 billion of common stock in the first quarter. While the amount of stock we repurchase each quarter will vary, we continue to expect to repurchase more common stock this year than we did in 2023.

轉向投影片 10 上的資本和流動性。我們在第一季回購了 61 億美元的普通股。雖然我們每季回購的股票數量會有所不同，但我們仍然預計今年回購的普通股數量將多於 2023 年。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 11. Consumer, Small and Business Banking revenue declined 4% from a year ago, driven by our lower deposit balances. We continue to invest in talent, technology and branches to improve the customer experience. Our branches are becoming more advice focused with teller transactions declining while banker visits have increased. We are modernizing and optimizing the branch network. The number of branches declined 6% from a year ago, while at the same time, we are accelerating the refurbishment of our branch network.

轉向我們的營運部門，從投影片 11 上的消費者銀行和貸款開始。我們持續投資於人才、技術和分支機構，以改善客戶體驗。我們的分行變得更加重視建議，出納員交易量下降，而銀行家訪問量增加。我們正在對分公司網路進行現代化改造和優化。分行數量較去年同期下降6%，同時，我們正在加速分行網路改造。

In addition, the enhancements we are making to our mobile app continue to drive momentum in mobile adoption, and we surpassed 30 million active mobile customers in the first quarter, up 6% from a year ago. Mobile logins also reached a milestone, surpassing 2 billion logins for the first time in the first quarter, up 18% from a year ago.

此外，我們對行動應用程式所做的增強繼續推動行動採用的勢頭，第一季我們的活躍行動客戶數量超過 3000 萬，比去年同期增長 6%。行動登入量也達到了一個里程碑，第一季登入量首次突破 20 億次，年增 18%。

Home lending revenue was stable from a year ago as higher mortgage banking income was offset by lower net interest income, as loan balances continued to decline. Credit card revenue increased 6% from a year ago, driven by the higher loan balances. Payment rates remained relatively stable compared with the fourth quarter and were above pre-pandemic levels. Auto revenue declined 23% from a year ago, driven by continued loans rate compression and lower loan balances. Personal lending revenue was up 7% from a year ago and included the impact of higher loan balances.

房屋貸款收入較上年同期保持穩定，因為抵押貸款銀行收入的增加被淨利息收入的減少所抵消，而貸款餘額繼續下降。在貸款餘額增加的推動下，信用卡收入年增 6%。與第四季度相比，付款率保持相對穩定，並高於大流行前的水平。由於貸款利率持續壓縮和貸款餘額下降，汽車收入年減 23%。個人貸款收入年增 7%，其中包括貸款餘額增加的影響。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 12. Retail mortgage originations declined 38% from a year ago, reflecting the progress we've made on our strategic objective to simplify the business as well as the decline in the mortgage market. We also made significant progress in reducing the amount of third-party mortgage loans we service, down 21% from a year ago. We also continued to reduce the head count in home lending, which was down 33% from a year ago.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。零售抵押貸款發放量比一年前下降了 38%，反映了我們在簡化業務的戰略目標方面取得的進展以及抵押貸款市場的下滑。我們在減少第三方抵押貸款金額方面也取得了重大進展，比一年前減少了 21%。我們也持續減少房屋貸款部門的人員數量，比一年前減少了 33%。

Balances in our auto portfolio were down 12% compared to last year. Origination volume declined 18% from a year ago, reflecting credit tightening actions, but increased 24% from a slow fourth quarter. Debit card spend increased 4% from a year ago with growth in most categories, except for fuel and travel. Credit card spending remained strong. It was up 14% from a year ago. All categories grew with stronger growth in nondiscretionary spend. New account growth continued to be strong, up 12% from last year.

與去年相比，我們的汽車投資組合餘額下降了 12%。由於信貸緊縮行動，貸款發放量較去年同期下降 18%，但較第四季緩慢成長 24%。借記卡支出較上年同期增長 4%，除燃油和旅行外，大多數類別均有所增長。信用卡支出依然強勁。比一年前成長了 14%。所有類別均隨著非可自由支配支出的強勁成長而成長。新帳戶成長持續強勁，較去年增長 12%。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 13. Middle Market Banking revenue was down 4% from a year ago, driven by lower net interest income due to higher deposit costs, partially offset by higher deposit-related fees. Asset-Based Lending and Leasing revenue decreased 7% year-over-year and included lower revenue from equity investments. Average loan balances were stable compared to a year ago as growth in Asset-Based Lending and Leasing was offset by declines in Middle Market Banking. Weaker loan demand reflected the impact of clients being cautious, given the higher rate environment and the anticipation of lower rates this year as well as some potential uncertainty in an election year.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的商業銀行業績。中間市場銀行業務收入較上年同期下降 4%，這是由於存款成本上升導致淨利息收入下降，但部分被存款相關費用上升所抵消。資產借貸收入較去年同期下降 7%，其中股權投資收入下降。平均貸款餘額與去年同期相比保持穩定，因為資產貸款和租賃的成長被中間市場銀行業務的下降所抵消。考慮到較高的利率環境和今年較低利率的預期以及選舉年度的一些潛在不確定性，貸款需求疲軟反映了客戶謹慎的影響。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 14. Banking revenue increased 5% from a year ago, driven by higher investment banking revenue due to increased activity across all products. Our results benefited from the areas where we have had strength for some time, such as investment-grade debt capital markets and from the talent we've been attracting into the business. While it is still early, we are encouraged by the green shoots we are seeing. Commercial real estate revenue was down 7% from a year ago and included the impact of lower loan balances. Markets revenue increased 2% from a year ago, driven by continued strong performance in structured products, credit products and foreign exchange. Our trading results continue to benefit from market conditions, and the investments we have made in technology and talent to round out the business have enabled us to produce strong results even as market dynamics have changed.

轉向投影片 14 上的企業和投資銀行業務。由於所有產品的活動增加，投資銀行業務收入增加，推動銀行業務收入較上年同期成長 5%。我們的表現得益於我們長期以來一直具有優勢的領域，例如投資級債務資本市場以及我們一直吸引進入該業務的人才。雖然現在還為時過早，但我們看到的萌芽讓我們感到鼓舞。商業房地產收入年減 7%，其中包括貸款餘額下降的影響。受結構性產品、信貸產品和外匯持續強勁表現的推動，市場收入較上年同期成長 2%。我們的交易表現持續受益於市場狀況，即使市場動態發生變化，我們為完善業務而在技術和人才方面進行的投資也使我們能夠取得強勁的業績。

Average loans declined 4% from a year ago. Banking clients have taken advantage of strong capital markets pay off loans. In addition to weak loan demand in commercial real estate given market conditions, balances also declined due to credit tightening actions we implemented last year, along with our efforts to actively reduce certain property types in the portfolio.

平均貸款較去年同期下降 4%。銀行客戶利用了強大的資本市場來還清貸款。除了考慮到市場條件下商業房地產的貸款需求疲軟之外，由於我們去年實施的信貸緊縮措施以及我們積極減少投資組合中某些房地產類型的努力，餘額也有所下降。

On Slide 15, Wealth and Investment Management revenue increased 2% compared to a year ago. Lower net interest income driven by lower deposit balances as customers reallocated cash into higher-yielding alternatives was more than offset by higher asset-based fees due to increased market valuations. While cash alternatives as a percentage of total client assets was higher than a year ago, it has declined in the past 2 quarters as the migration of deposits into cash alternatives has slowed significantly.

在投影片 15 上，財富和投資管理收入與去年同期相比成長了 2%。由於客戶將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品，存款餘額減少導致淨利息收入下降，但市場估值上升導致的資產費用上升抵消了淨利息收入的下降。儘管現金替代品佔客戶總資產的百分比高於一年前，但由於存款向現金替代品的遷移速度顯著放緩，該比例在過去兩個季度有所下降。

As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so first quarter results reflected market valuations as of January 1, which were higher from a year ago. Asset-based fees in the second quarter will reflect market valuations as of April 1, which were higher from both a year ago and from January 1.

需要提醒的是，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產是在季度初定價的，因此第一季業績反映了截至 1 月 1 日的市場估值，高於一年前。第二季的資產費用將反映截至 4 月 1 日的市場估值，較一年前和 1 月 1 日均較高。

Slide 16 highlights our corporate results. Revenue grew from a year ago due to improved results in our affiliated venture capital business on lower impairments. In summary, our results in the first quarter reflected the progress we're making to improve our financial performance. We grew revenue, driven by strong growth in our fee-based businesses. We continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives. We increased capital return to shareholders and maintained our strong capital position.

幻燈片 16 重點介紹了我們的公司業績。由於減損損失降低，我們附屬創投業務的業績有所改善，營收較上年同期有所成長。總之，我們第一季的業績反映了我們在改善財務表現方面所取得的進展。在收費業務強勁成長的推動下，我們的收入有所成長。我們持續在效率措施方面取得進展。我們增加了股東的資本回報並維持了強勁的資本地位。

We'll now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納。

Guys, I wanted to ask about your profitability targets and kind of how you're seeing the journey to the mid-teens ROTCE goal. Mike, maybe you could talk about that through the lens of 12% return on tangible common equity this quarter. Where do you think you're kind of overearning, underearning? And what does that journey to the mid-teens look like over the next couple of years?

夥伴們，我想問一下你們的獲利目標以及你們如何看待實現青少年 ROTCE 目標的過程。麥克，也許你可以從本季 12% 的有形普通股回報率的角度來談論這個問題。您認為自己在哪些方面收入過高，哪些方面收入不足？在接下來的幾年裡，通往青少年中期的旅程會是什麼樣子？

John, it's Mike. Thanks for the question. So look, I think not much has changed in our thinking on the topic. And so as you sort of think about it on a long-term basis, there's no reason -- we still -- there's still no reason why our businesses shouldn't have returns like the best of our peers. And as we sort of go through that journey, obviously, we are where we are in terms of the returns today. And as we get towards closer to 15%, it's going to be the same kinds of drivers that we've been talking about now for a while.

約翰，是麥克。謝謝你的提問。所以看，我認為我們對這個主題的看法沒有太大改變。因此，當你從長遠的角度思考這個問題時，我們仍然沒有理由認為我們的企業不應該像我們最好的同行那樣獲得回報。當我們經歷這個旅程時，顯然，就今天的回報而言，我們已經達到了現在的水平。當我們接近 15% 時，這將是我們現在一直在談論的相同類型的驅動因素。

We've got to continue to optimize sort of capital and balance sheet. You saw us return some via buybacks today. We're making investments on each of our businesses, and so we'll need to start seeing some of the returns there. And this was 1 quarter of it but a good quarter that shows some of the benefits of those investments we're making across a whole range of the businesses, which is good to see, and Charlie highlighted a bunch of that in his commentary.

我們必須繼續優化資本和資產負債表。您今天看到我們透過回購返還了一些。我們正在對每項業務進行投資，因此我們需要開始看到一些回報。這只是其中的一個季度，但這是一個很好的季度，顯示了我們在整個業務範圍內進行的投資的一些好處，這是很高興看到的，查理在他的評論中強調了其中的一些好處。

And then we've got to stay on the efficiency journey, which we continue to believe is not done. And we've got a lot of work to do to continue to drive efficiency across the company, and we're going to stay at that as we look forward. And so I think it's really those drivers that get in. We still have confidence that we're going to get there.

然後我們必須繼續提高效率，但我們仍然認為這還沒有完成。為了繼續提高整個公司的效率，我們還有很多工作要做，展望未來，我們將繼續努力。所以我認為確實是那些司機進來了。我們仍然有信心我們會到達那裡。

John, it's Charlie. Let me just add a couple of things. Number one is just as a reminder to everyone, we tried to be clear as NII was rising and we got to certainly either at the peak or near the peaks that we were out-earning, and that we didn't look at those ROEs at those points as sustainable, but that our clear journey was to continue to get there on a sustainable basis.

約翰，這是查理。讓我補充幾件事。第一，提醒大家，我們試圖澄清，隨著NII不斷上升，我們肯定會達到我們盈利的峰值或接近峰值，並且我們沒有考慮這些ROE這些要點是可持續的，但我們明確的旅程是繼續在可在持續的基礎上實現這一目標。

I think second of all, when we look at -- obviously, it's very hard to draw any conclusion from a specific quarter, right? You've got the FDIC. We've got operating losses, which we've talked about where our expectations are for the full year which are different than the quarter. So it's very hard to draw a conclusion on a specific quarter. But when we look at what is going to get us there, we are very consistent on what those things are.

我認為其次，當我們觀察時，顯然，很難從特定季度得出任何結論，對嗎？你有 FDIC。我們有營運虧損，我們已經討論過我們對全年的預期與季度不同。因此很難對具體季度得出結論。但當我們考慮什麼能讓我們實現這一目標時，我們對這些事情的看法非常一致。

Number one is improve business performance, and we tried to highlight where we see that. And those areas that we don't talk about are areas that we are still bullish on, but we'd like to see some more improvement and the ability to increase our returns in those parts of the company, as well as continued capital return as well as the limitations we have because of the asset gap. So again, our thesis hasn't changed, our views haven't changed and our confidence in getting there hasn't changed.

第一是提高業務績效，我們試著強調我們所看到的這一點。我們不談論的那些領域是我們仍然看好的領域，但我們希望看到公司這些部分有更多的改進和增加回報的能力，以及持續的資本回報以及由於資產缺口而造成的限制。再說一次，我們的論點沒有改變，我們的觀點沒有改變，我們實現這一目標的信心沒有改變。

Okay. And then one just quick follow-up there. Do you think this 11% CET1 is probably kind of the ballpark of where you hang out regardless of the minimum just because it feels like you have super regional banks that aren't G-SIBs that are running at 10%, 10.5%, you have bigger banks at 12%, 13%. Does 11% kind of feel like the right ballpark, which means you can return most of what you're generating now?

好的。然後就是快速跟進。你是否認為這個 11% CET1 可能是你閒逛的地方，無論最低限度是多少，只是因為感覺你有超級區域銀行，而不是 G-SIB，它們的運行率為 10%、10.5%，你有較大的銀行，佔12%、13%。 11% 感覺像是正確的大概嗎，這意味著您可以返還您現在產生的大部分資金？

I would say it's something that we continue to think through. You know our existing needs today with buffers are at 8.9%. At 8.9%, everyone understands that Basel III endgame is coming but likely with significant revisions. So I don't -- I think as the quarters continue, we'll learn more about where that will come out, and we'll be able to be more informed where we'll wind up. We've always tried to be on the more conservative end, but there's a point at which too much is too much, which is why we bought the amount this quarter that we bought back.

我想說這是我們繼續思考的事情。您知道，我們目前的緩衝需求為 8.9%。 8.9% 的人都知道巴塞爾協議 III 的最終階段即將到來，但可能會進行重大修改。所以我不——我認為隨著季度的繼續，我們將更多地了解結果，並且我們將能夠更好地了解我們最終的結果。我們一直試圖採取更保守的態度，但有一個點，太多就太多了，這就是為什麼我們本季回購了我們回購的金額。

The next question will come from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 提出。

I guess just following up on that. As we think about Basel, your capital levels, even with 100 basis points buffer, you probably have $12 billion of excess capital. Given what we saw in 1Q and I heard you, Mike, year-over-year, you're going to be higher but that doesn't give enough color. I'm just wondering, should we expect the pace of buybacks to continue, given that where the stock is trading, which is still fairly attractive valuations?

我想只是跟進一下。當我們考慮巴塞爾時，你的資本水平，即使有 100 個基點的緩衝，你也可能擁有 120 億美元的超額資本。鑑於我們在第一季所看到的情況，麥克，我聽到你的聲音，你的表現會比去年同期更高，但這並沒有提供足夠的色彩。我只是想知道，鑑於該股的交易估值仍然相當有吸引力，我們是否應該預期回購步伐會繼續下去？

Yes, it's Mike. Thanks for the question. As you look at the pacing, we're really not going to provide specific guidance on like what we'll do quarter-to-quarter. I think obviously, as you pointed out, we've got significant excess capital to where we need to be. We'll be able to handle with whatever comes out of Basel III quite easily with where we are today, gives us the ability to be there and invest as we've got opportunities with clients. And so we've got lots of flexibility.

是的，是麥克。謝謝你的提問。當你看到節奏時，我們真的不會提供具體的指導，例如我們每季都會做什麼。我認為顯然，正如您所指出的，我們已經擁有大量過剩資本來滿足我們所需的目標。就我們今天的情況而言，我們將能夠輕鬆處理巴塞爾 III 產生的任何問題，這使我們有能力在那裡進行投資，因為我們有與客戶合作的機會。所以我們有很大的靈活性。

And each quarter, we'll go through the same process we go through every quarter, which is thinking about sort of where the capital requirements are going to go, looking at all the different risks that are out there across the spectrum, whether it's rates or other, and then looking at what we're seeing from client activity. And then we'll make a decision on the pacing of it. But as you say, we're still very confident we'll do more than we did last year, but pacing will kind of leave to -- we'll cover that each quarter after we report.

每個季度，我們都會經歷與每個季度相同的流程，即考慮資本要求的走向，審視整個範圍內存在的所有不同風險，無論是利率或其他，然後查看我們從客戶活動中看到的情況。然後我們將決定它的節奏。但正如你所說，我們仍然非常有信心我們會比去年做得更多，但節奏會有所不同——我們將在報告後每個季度進行報告。

Got it. And I guess just separately, I think there's a lot of focus on market share opportunity for Wells beating capital markets, IB, corporate lending, and I think Charlie referenced the hiring of Doug Braunstein. Would appreciate additional color in terms of areas where you see within corporate capital markets where there's market share to be had. And what's the level of investment/infrastructure needed in order for competing in that space and winning market share?

知道了。我想單獨來看，我認為富國銀行擊敗資本市場、IB、企業貸款的市場份額機會受到了很多關注，而且我認為查理提到了僱用道格·布勞恩斯坦(Doug Braunstein)。如果您在企業資本市場中看到有市場份額的領域，希望能獲得更多的色彩。為了在該領域競爭並贏得市場份額，需要多少投資/基礎設施水準？

Yes, let me start out. I think first of all, when we talk about the level of investment that's necessary, we're making the investment and it's embedded in what we're spending. And so we are funding that through normal course of business. Some of the folks that we're hiring or replacing other people and others are additions, but that's part of what it is. And so we don't anticipate any kind of step-up in the expense base to fund what we're doing, which we feel great about. We've got the ability to spend along the way and to actually see them paying off for itself.

是的，讓我開始吧。我認為首先，當我們談論必要的投資水平時，我們正在進行投資，並將其納入我們的支出中。因此，我們透過正常業務流程為其提供資金。我們正在僱用或更換其他人員，而其他人員中的一些人是補充人員，但這就是事實的一部分。因此，我們預計支出基礎不會有任何形式的增加來資助我們正在做的事情，我們對此感覺很好。我們有能力一路花錢，並真正看到它們得到回報。

Listen, I said this very consistently, which is we are extremely underpenetrated across almost all segments of the investment banking space. But we've been stronger on the debt side. We have not been as strong on the equity side. And by the way, all for reasons that relate to our own willingness to invest over the last 1.5 decades, not because of the opportunity or because of our business model, it's just the opposite. It's just not something that the senior management team here was supportive of, and we feel very differently than that.

聽著，我說得非常一致，那就是我們在投資銀行領域的幾乎所有領域的滲透率都極度不足。但我們在債務方面表現更強。我們在股權方面沒有那麼強大。順便說一句，這一切都是因為我們自己在過去 1.5 年裡的投資意願，而不是因為機會或因為我們的商業模式，事實恰恰相反。這並不是這裡的高階管理團隊所支持的，我們的感覺與此截然不同。

And so when we look across coverage in the equity space by industry, on the strategic side and how that relates to our -- the existing high-quality debt platform that we have, again, we're prioritizing industries based upon where we already have strength and relationship and where there are significant wallets. But we feel really great about our ability to serve a broad set of customers and their desire to do business with us because of both the platform and the talent that we have here.

因此，當我們按行業審視股權領域的覆蓋範圍時，在戰略方面以及這與我們現有的高品質債務平台有何關係，我們再次根據我們已經擁有的領域來優先考慮行業實力和關係以及有大量錢包的地方。但我們對我們為廣大客戶提供服務的能力以及他們與我們開展業務的願望感到非常滿意，因為我們擁有平台和人才。

And then when we look at our -- the trading side of our business, a big part of what we do there is to support our efforts within the investment bank. But it also is to leverage the broader institutional relationships that we have where we do a lot with those institutions, but we haven't necessarily leveraged trading flow as part of that. And so to do that, we're making investments not just in people but in technology. We are -- as I alluded to, we're not doing any of this by rethinking the way we think of our risk tolerances. It really is about getting the right products, the right services, the right people, and calling on our customer base with a different degree of credibility and desire that we've had in the past.

然後，當我們審視我們業務的交易方面時，我們所做的工作很大一部分是支持我們在投資銀行內部的努力。但這也是為了利用我們與這些機構有許多合作的更廣泛的機構關係，但我們不一定會利用交易流作為其中的一部分。為此，我們不僅對人員進行投資，而且對科技進行投資。正如我所提到的，我們並不是透過重新思考我們的風險承受能力來做到這一點的。這實際上是為了獲得正確的產品、正確的服務、正確的人員，並以與過去不同程度的可信度和願望來吸引我們的客戶群。

The next question comes from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I'm wondering if we could talk a little bit about just that kind of last mile of deposit repricing. You talked about the mix shift and noninterest down and interest-bearing up. But just wondering just what's happening on the pricing side. And are you still seeing both sides, consumer and wholesale? If you can maybe just kind of give us the dynamics that's happening underneath and how you expect that to continue as we get to this -- as we stay in this rates peak?

我想知道我們是否可以談談存款重新定價的最後一英里。您談到了混合轉變以及無息下降和有息上升。但只是想知道定價方面發生了什麼事。您仍然看到消費者和批發雙方嗎？您是否可以向我們介紹一下正在發生的動態，以及當我們處於這個利率高峰時，您預計這種情況將如何繼續？

Sure. I'll take that, Ken. As you look at the commercial side, not much has changed. It's pretty competitive. We're not seeing it move one way or the other in a significant way as you sort of look over the last quarter. Good news is we've been able to attract good operating deposits in corporate investment bank. We've seen some growth in the commercial bank as well. And so all that's kind of performing as you'd expect. And you wouldn't really expect pricing to move there until the Fed starts to move. It will stay pretty competitive at that point. And we still expect betas to be pretty high on the way down as you start to see that eventually happen.

當然。我會接受的，肯。從商業方面來看，並沒有太大變化。這是相當有競爭力的。從上一季的情況來看，我們並沒有看到它以一種或另一種方式發生重大變化。好消息是我們已經能夠在企業投資銀行吸引良好的營運存款。我們也看到商業銀行的一些成長。所以所有這些都符合您的期望。在聯準會開始採取行動之前，你不會真正期望價格會改變。到那時它將保持相當的競爭力。當你開始看到這種情況最終發生時，我們仍然預期貝塔值在下降過程中會相當高。

On the consumer side, standard pricing is not moving. And really, what you're seeing is you're seeing people continue to spend some of the money that's in their checking accounts and/or move some of it into either CDs or higher-yielding savings accounts. And so you still see some of that activity happening across the consumer space and the wealth space, where you still have some people moving into higher-yielding alternatives. The pace of that migration has slowed at least for now. And so we'll see how that progresses through the rest of the year, but it has slowed a bit over the last number of months.

在消費者方面，標準定價沒有改變。事實上，你所看到的是，你看到人們繼續花掉支票帳戶中的一些錢和/或將其中一些錢轉移到定期存款或高收益儲蓄帳戶中。因此，你仍然會看到一些活動發生在消費領域和財富領域，仍然有一些人轉向更高收益的替代品。至少目前來說，遷移的速度已經放緩。因此，我們將看到今年剩餘時間的進展情況，但在過去幾個月中有所放緩。

Okay. And on the lending side, I think what you guys showed is not unexpected at all based on general softness to start the year. So I think you and others have just kind of generically hope that we get an improvement. But with rates where they are, is there any impediment to just seeing an improvement in loan growth as the year goes on? Or is it baked into kind of the demand function that you're seeing underneath?

好的。在貸款方面，我認為基於今年年初的普遍疲軟，你們所表現出的情況一點也不意外。所以我認為你和其他人只是普遍希望我們得到改進。但在目前的利率水準下，隨著時間的推移，貸款成長的改善是否會遇到任何障礙？或者它是否融入了您在下面看到的需求函數？

Yes. I think what we're seeing so far is exactly what we expected to see at the beginning of the year. And I know different people have different views back in January, but this is exactly what we expected, which is pretty low demand. Now as I said in my commentary, it's a little bit lower than what we had modeled but not substantially at this point. And it really is a demand function. When you look at what we're hearing from clients in the commercial bank or some of the clients in the corporate investment bank, they're looking -- they're being cautious still and saying, "Okay, I'm not going to build inventories as much as I might in a different environment."

是的。我認為到目前為止我們所看到的正是我們在年初所期望看到的。我知道在一月不同的人有不同的看法，但這正是我們所期望的，需求相當低。現在，正如我在評論中所說，它比我們建模的要低一點，但目前還沒有大幅下降。這確實是需求函數。當你看看我們從商業銀行的客戶或企業投資銀行的一些客戶那裡聽到的消息時，他們會看到——他們仍然很謹慎，並說：「好吧，我不會在不同的環境中盡可能建立庫存。

They're being thoughtful about the cost of credit and how that impacts investments they're making or the timing and the pacing of that. And so on the commercial side, it really is a demand issue at this point. On the consumer side, you continue to see some growth in card balances. Given the size of the balance sheet, that's not going to move the whole balance sheet very materially, given where we start from.

他們正在考慮信貸成本以及這如何影響他們正在進行的投資或投資的時間和節奏。所以在商業方面，這確實是需求問題。在消費者方面，您會繼續看到卡片餘額有所增長。考慮到資產負債表的規模，考慮到我們的起點，這不會對整個資產負債表產生很大的影響。

And then the mortgage side just continues to decline a little bit, given the market that we've got there. And in auto, we're seeing a little bit more decline, given some of the changes we made about 1.5 years ago, 1 year, 1.5 years ago on some of the credit tightening and eventually, that will start to turn. So I think those are the dynamics that we're seeing right now.

然後，考慮到我們現有的市場，抵押貸款方面繼續略有下降。在汽車領域，考慮到我們在大約 1.5 年前、1 年、1.5 年前針對信貸緊縮所做的一些改變，我們看到了更多的下滑，最終，情況將開始扭轉。所以我認為這些就是我們現在看到的動態。

The next question will come from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克（Betsy Graseck）提出。

Okay. A couple of just quickies here. One is on the net interest income outlook that's unchanged, could you remind us what the interest rate environment is that's the base case for that analysis?

好的。這裡只是簡單介紹一下。一是淨利息收入前景保持不變，您能否提醒我們，作為該分析的基本情況的利率環境是什麼？

Sure. It's Mike, Betsy. Welcome back. Sure. When you look at the environment, we're not guessing sort of what's going to happen, right? So I think as you sort of look at the different variables there, embedded in our baseline forecast is that we would expect somewhere around 3 rate cuts this year. And that's what's underlying sort of our thinking at this point.

當然。是麥克，貝琪。歡迎回來。當然。當你觀察環境時，我們不會猜測會發生什麼，對吧？因此，我認為，當你看看那裡的不同變數時，我們的基準預測中嵌入的是，我們預計今年會降息 3 次左右。這就是我們目前的基本想法。

And was that the same as last quarter, same assumption set? Or has that changed at all?

這與上個季度相同嗎？或者說這一切已經改變了嗎？

No. I mean -- yes. No, look, it's definitely less than what I think was being projected by the market, and that's what we put out on our slide in January. And when you look at the impact of that, in isolation, you certainly would see a benefit from less rate cuts. But I do think you have to put that in the context of, okay, now what's going to happen with client behavior and mix shifts as we look for the rest of the year?

不，我的意思是——是的。不，你看，這絕對低於我認為的市場預測，這就是我們一月份在投影片上發布的內容。當你孤立地看待這影響時，你肯定會看到減少降息的好處。但我確實認為你必須把這一點放在這樣的背景下：好吧，在我們展望今年剩餘時間時，客戶行為和組合轉變將會發生什麼？

I mean it's certainly clear, we feel better today than we did in January about our guidance and our forecast there. But I do think we have to let some more time play out to see how people react to what's happening. And I think even you got to be really careful to take what happened over a day or 2 and extrapolate too far, right? We're seeing a bunch of that be given back today even. And what we've seen over the last couple of years is that every time you have this strong reaction, either up or down in expectation for rates, that reaction tends to moderate a little bit over a pretty short period of time. And so let's -- we'll see how that plays out.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們今天對我們的指導和預測感覺比一月份更好。但我確實認為我們必須再花一些時間來看看人們對正在發生的事情有何反應。我認為即使你也必須非常小心地對待一兩天內發生的事情並進行過度推斷，對吧？今天我們甚至看到其中的一部分被歸還。過去幾年我們看到的是，每當你對利率預期產生如此強烈的反應時，無論是上升還是下降，這種反應往往會在相當短的時間內有所緩和。那麼讓我們看看結果如何。

Okay. And anything -- and obviously, we've had quite a bit of activity, volatility on the long end of the curve. How do you think about that? And is there opportunity set for maybe pulling in some more deposits and reinvesting in securities, given the slightly improved long-end rates here?

好的。任何事情——顯然，我們在曲線的長端有相當多的活動和波動。您對此有何看法？鑑於長期利率略有改善，是否有機會吸收更多存款並再投資於證券？

Yes, yes. And we've started to do that to some degree in the first quarter where we have been starting to buy some securities, mainly mortgages, given where rates and levels have been. And that's been a good trade, I think, for us so far. And so I think you'll certainly see us continue to deploy more cash into securities, at least at some modest levels as we look forward over the next quarter.

是的是的。我們在第一季就開始在某種程度上這樣做，考慮到利率和水平，我們開始購買一些證券，主要是抵押貸款。我認為，到目前為止，這對我們來說是一筆很好的交易。因此，我認為您肯定會看到我們繼續在證券中配置更多現金，至少在我們展望下個季度時處於適度水平。

The next question will come from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian 提出。

Just to follow up on Betsy's questions. On the net interest income outlook, you had a peer that had a more modest upgrade to that outlook than expected. You held firm on your NII guide. I guess to that end, as we think through whether or not there are going to be 3 cuts or no cuts, above and beyond just marking the market, the NII to the rate curve is the implication to volumes, right? Like you mentioned in response to Betsy's question, the client behavior.

只是為了跟進貝特西的問題。關於淨利息收入前景，您有一位同行對該前景的升級程度比預期更為溫和。您堅持 NII 指南。我想為此，當我們思考是否會進行 3 次降息或不降息時，除了標記市場之外，利率曲線的 NII 也對交易量產生了影響，對嗎？就像您在回答貝特西的問題時提到的，客戶行為。

And so I guess I just wanted to understand in terms of the range of outcomes of 0, which is being talked about a couple of days ago with 3 embedded in your estimates, how should we think about how you're thinking about volumes in terms of loans and deposit behavior? In other words, have you considered a wider range of volume outcomes as you think about the curve outlook?

所以我想我只是想了解 0 的結果範圍，幾天前我們在您的估計中討論了 3，我們應該如何考慮您如何考慮數量方面的問題貸款和存款行為？換句話說，在考慮曲線前景時，您是否考慮過更廣泛的成交量結果？

Yes. No, I'll try to -- I'll take an attempt at that, Erika, and you can tell me if I covered it all. But it's certainly -- we're at a point in time, and I said this on a call with media earlier this morning, like we're at a time where it's difficult to sort of model the different outcomes that you could expect to see with net interest income, just given all the dynamics that are happening there. And as you said, like I think the fact that rates might be higher than what people expected a week ago. That could change, first of all, but let's stipulate. At this point, people are thinking it's going to be higher for a little bit longer.

是的。不，我會嘗試——我會嘗試一下，埃里卡，你可以告訴我我是否涵蓋了所有內容。但可以肯定的是——我們正處於一個時間點，我今天早上早些時候在與媒體的電話會議上說過這一點，就像我們正處於一個很難對你可能期望看到的不同結果進行建模的時代考慮到那裡正在發生的所有動態，淨利息收入。正如你所說，我認為利率可能高於人們一周前的預期。首先，這可能會改變，但讓我們做出規定。在這一點上，人們認為價格會持續更高一段時間。

We do have to wait and see how clients are going to react. And I think we do our best to try to come up with a range of outcomes there. And given that -- given what's happening in rates plus what's happening in quantitative tightening, what's happening in sort of the economy overall, it's going to all matter in terms of what happens with deposit levels. And let's see how that plays out. But I think as I come back to what I said earlier, we feel better than we did today than we did in January about where we are, but there's a lot to play out for the rest of the year.

我們確實必須等待，看看客戶會如何反應。我認為我們會盡最大努力在那裡取得一系列成果。鑑於這一點，考慮到利率的變化，加上量化緊縮的變化，以及整體經濟的變化，存款水準的變化將至關重要。讓我們看看結果如何。但我想，當我回到我之前所說的時候，我們對自己的處境感覺比今天比一月更好，但今年剩下的時間還有很多事情要做。

Got it. And just a follow-up, kind of a two-part question but hopefully very related to one another. It was -- the lifting of the consent order was clearly huge for how the market was perceiving Wells. As we think about further remediation, how should we think about how you're thinking about the potential cost saves that you could extract from all the processes that may be in place, has been focused solely on the remediation?

知道了。這只是一個後續問題，是一個由兩部分組成的問題，但希望彼此非常相關。取消同意令對於市場對威爾斯的看法顯然意義重大。當我們考慮進一步的補救措施時，我們應該如何考慮您如何考慮從所有可能已到位的流程中提取的潛在成本節省，這些流程僅專注於補救措施？

And I ask that not in light of the usual recycled question, but clearly had a massive outperformance, like Ebrahim mentioned, on investment banking and trading. And as we think about those expenses, should we start expecting the reinvestment back to potentially accelerate? And also on investment banking and trading, I know there's a lot of seasonality, but are these new run rates? I guess it's hard for us to tell what the base is because obviously, as you -- as Charlie mentioned, you're underpenetrated across the board. So should we continue to see a moving up of this base despite the seasonality as we look forward?

我這樣問並不是因為通常的循環問題，而是像易卜拉欣提到的那樣，在投資銀行和交易方面顯然表現出色。當我們考慮這些支出時，我們是否應該開始預期再投資可能會加速回升？在投資銀行和交易方面，我知道有很多季節性因素，但這些是新的運作率嗎？我想我們很難說出基礎是什麼，因為顯然，正如你——正如查理所提到的那樣，你的全面滲透不足。那麼，儘管我們期待季節性因素，但我們是否應該繼續看到這個基礎的上升？

Okay. There's a lot in there. Let me start, Mike, and then you chime in. So first of all, Mike, you can comment on like investment banking and trading. But again, we're not going to answer the question on how you should think about what investment banking and trading will be in the future. What we're focused on are, are we building businesses? Are we taking share in a way which is profitable? And that's exactly what we're starting to do. And there is volatility of the business, but we're focused on building it over a period of time, and that's what we're seeing.

好的。裡面有很多東西。讓我開始，麥克，然後你插話。首先，麥克，你可以評論投資銀行和交易等問題。但同樣，我們不會回答關於您應該如何看待未來投資銀行和交易的問題。我們關注的是，我們正在建立業務嗎？我們是否以有利可圖的方式獲取份額？這正是我們正在開始做的事情。業務存在波動性，但我們專注於在一段時間內建立它，這就是我們所看到的。

And so the way we would think about it when we look at our own forecasting is we would expect to see our market shares rise over a period of time, and quarter-by-quarter, know that it will be subject to volatility that exists.

因此，當我們查看自己的預測時，我們的思考方式是，我們預計我們的市場份額將在一段時間內逐季上升，並且知道它將受到存在的波動的影響。

And when you think about the first quarter in particular, there's always going to be seasonality on the trading side. That happens pretty much every year, so you can't just take that as a run rate. And on the investment banking side, you've certainly seen some very high issuance volumes on the investment-grade debt side. So that's likely maybe pulling some issuance forward later in the year but we'll see. And then some of the M&A revenue that's embedded in there can be somewhat episodic and volatile, just given the timing of deals and closings and stuff. And so you do have to look at those 2 lines over a longer period of time.

當你特別考慮第一季時，你會發現交易方面總是存在季節性。這種情況幾乎每年都會發生，所以你不能只是將其視為運行率。在投資銀行方面，您肯定已經看到投資等級債務的發行量非常高。因此，這可能會導致今年稍後的一些發行提前，但我們拭目以待。然後，考慮到交易、交割等的時間，其中嵌入的一些併購收入可能會有些偶發性和波動性。所以你必須在更長的時間內觀察這兩條線。

And then on your question on expenses, again, it is -- we were in the exact same place that we've been, which is we're not thinking about at all. We're not doing work. We're not thinking about whether there are efficiencies to be gotten out of all the risk and control work that we're doing. In fact, we're still on the other side of that, which is we still have more open consent orders. And we're still committed to do whatever is necessary, including spending whatever is necessary to get that work done properly and build it into the infrastructure of the company.

關於你關於費用的問題，我們再次處於同樣的境地，我們根本沒有考慮過這一點。我們不做工作。我們沒有考慮我們正在做的所有風險和控制工作是否可以提高效率。事實上，我們仍然處於另一面，即我們仍然有更多開放的同意令。我們仍然致力於採取一切必要的措施，包括花費一切必要的資金來正確完成這項工作並將其建置到公司的基礎設施中。

I've said there'll be a point at which when it's built into what we do and there's a high degree of confidence, that it is part of the culture and our processes, that we will have an opportunity to figure out how to do some of those things more efficiently. But that's not on our radar screen at all. What is on our radar screen is the fact that there's still a lot of inefficiency left within the company, completely away from the money that we're spending on this.

我說過，到了某個時候，當它融入我們所做的事情中，並且我們有高度的信心，它成為我們文化和流程的一部分時，我們將有機會弄清楚如何做其中一些事情更有效。但這根本不在我們的雷達螢幕上。在我們的雷達螢幕上看到的事實是，公司內部仍然存在大量效率低下的情況，完全超出了我們在這方面投入的資金。

And that's where we're focused, and that's why we have the ability to invest in card and invest in investment banking and trading and accelerate the branch refurbishments and hire more bankers in Commercial Banking and things like that. So I would just still continue to separate the fact that we're committed to get the work done, we're going to do whatever is necessary to spend there, and that's not the area of focus for us when it comes to efficiency.

這就是我們關注的重點，這就是為什麼我們有能力投資銀行卡、投資銀行和交易、加速分行翻新、在商業銀行等領域僱用更多銀行家。因此，我仍然會繼續區分這樣一個事實：我們致力於完成工作，我們將盡一切必要在那裡花費，而這不是我們關注效率的重點領域。

The next question will come from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·丘巴克。

So I wanted to start off just on a question maybe unpacking the NII commentary a bit more. In the prepared remarks, Mike, you noted that you expected NII to be troughing towards the end of this year. So less concerned about the full year '24 outlook. But I was hoping you could just speak to the inputs or assumptions that, that's supporting that expectation around troughing or stabilization, given further rate cuts that are reflected in the forward curve beyond '24.

所以我想從一個問題開始，或許可以進一步解讀 NII 的評論。麥克，在準備好的發言中，您指出您預計 NII 將在今年年底陷入低谷。因此不太關心 24 年全年的前景。但我希望你能談談輸入或假設，即考慮到 24 年後遠期曲線中反映的進一步降息，這支持了對谷底或穩定的預期。

Yes. When you look at all the different factors, Steve, there's obviously nothing that's sort of unique to sort of our balance sheet. But when you look at both the asset repricing that's happening in securities, you look at what's happening and you just sort of project forward on sort of the loans and the other parts of the balance sheet, that's obviously a key input as you sort of look forward.

是的。史蒂夫，當你考慮所有不同的因素時，顯然我們的資產負債表沒有什麼獨特之處。但是，當您查看證券中正在發生的資產重新定價時，您會看到正在發生的事情，並且您只是對貸款和資產負債表的其他部分進行預測，這顯然是一個關鍵輸入向前。

And then at some point, you would expect that the migration and deposit mix starts to stabilize as you go forward. And I'm a little intentional -- I'm intentional in the words we use in terms of towards the end of the year. Is it right at this year? Is it early next year? Like it's going to be -- we're getting closer to that point in terms of when it's going to trough. Calling the exact date with a high degree of certainty is difficult in this environment. But it's all the things that sort of we've talked about over the coming -- over the last few quarters are going to drive that. And then it starts with like deposits and deposit mix and deposit pricing and then goes through the rest of where we think the assets sort of net out.

然後在某個時候，您會期望遷移和存款組合隨著您的前進而開始穩定。我有點故意——我是故意用我們在年底時使用的字詞來表達的。今年合適嗎？是明年初嗎？就像它將會發生的那樣——就何時觸底而言，我們正在接近那個點。在這種環境下，很難高度確定地確定確切的日期。但我們在未來幾季討論過的所有事情都將推動這一趨勢。然後它從存款、存款組合和存款定價開始，然後是我們認為資產淨值化的其餘部分。

That's helpful color. And for my follow-up, might be regretting this question. But Charlie, it relates to how you responded to Erika's last one relating to the asset cap specifically. I recognize that you're focused internally on just addressing or remediating all the various consent orders. But externally, investors are clearly spending much more time evaluating the different potential sources of earnings or return uplift once these regulatory restrictions are eliminated, whether it's deposit recapture, growth in trading book and reduction in that elevated risk and control spend.

這是有用的顏色。對於我的後續行動，可能會後悔這個問題。但是查理，這與你如何回應艾莉卡最後一個與資產上限有關的具體問題有關。我認識到您在內部專注於解決或補救所有各種同意令。但從外部來看，一旦這些監管限制被取消，投資者顯然會花更多的時間來評估不同的潛在收益或回報提升來源，無論是存款收回、交易帳戶增長還是增加的風險和控制支出的減少。

Don't expect you to quantify it, don't expect you to speculate on timing for when the asset cap can get lifted. But just given that focus for investors, it might just be helpful if you can contextualize how you're thinking about some of those potential benefits.

不要指望你能夠量化它，也不要指望你猜測資產上限何時可以取消。但鑑於投資者的關注點，如果您能結合具體情況來思考其中一些潛在的好處，可能會有所幫助。

Sure. And I'm not sure you shouldn't feel like frankly ask the question, you get it? Or you should ask whatever you want. I just try to be as clear as I can on what I think we'll be in a position to answer, and I don't want you guys to get frustrated by the level of consistency of the things that we want to be careful about.

當然。我不確定你不該坦白問這個問題，你懂嗎？或者你應該問任何你想要的。我只是盡力盡可能清楚地說明我認為我們能夠回答的問題，我不希望你們因為我們想要小心的事情的一致性程度而感到沮喪。

But to your question, which is, I think, entirely reasonable, I'd put into a couple of categories. I think first of all, probably the most important thing with the asset cap, quite frankly, is not the pure economics at this point that will come from the lifting of the asset cap. It is still a reputational overhang for us. And while the lifting of the sales practices consent order was extremely important for those that have just read the newspapers, certainly, those that follow the stock care a lot about the asset cap and we understand that.

但對於你的問題，我認為這是完全合理的，我將分為幾個類別。我認為首先，坦白說，資產上限最重要的可能並不是資產上限取消所帶來的純粹經濟學。這對我們來說仍然是一個聲譽問題。雖然取消銷售行為同意令對於那些剛讀過報紙的人來說非常重要，但當然，那些關注股票的人非常關心資產上限，我們理解這一點。

And so that is just initially, I think, an important factor in terms of how we'll be viewed as opposed to what we'll actually do. I think when we look at what we have done to proactively manage the company to keep ourselves below the asset cap, there are 2, you've got 2 categories. You've got places where we have gone and said, please make your business smaller just because of normal deposit flows and consumer business and things like that, we'll have some asset pressure and we need to offset at some place.

因此，我認為，這只是最初的一個重要因素，它決定了人們如何看待我們，而不是我們實際要做的事情。我認為，當我們審視我們為主動管理公司以保持資產上限以下所做的努力時，有 2 個類別。我們在某些​​地方說過，請縮小您的業務規模，只是因為正常的存款流動和消費者業務之類的事情，我們將面臨一些資產壓力，我們需要在某個地方進行抵銷。

And then there's the opportunity cost of what we haven't been able to do because we've had the asset cap, and then what does that mean going forward. On the first piece, we have limited our ability certainly within our trading businesses for some very low-risk things such as financing our customers and things like that. So by not allowing them to provide a level of financing, which is very low risk, we have not captured as much trading flow as we otherwise would have seen.

然後是我們由於資產上限而無法做的事情的機會成本，這對未來意味著什麼。首先，我們在交易業務中限制了我們在一些風險非常低的事情上的能力，例如為客戶提供融資等。因此，由於不允許他們提供一定程度的風險極低的融資，我們沒有獲得像其他情況下那麼多的交易流量。

In our corporate businesses, we've been very, very careful to encourage our bankers to bring in sizable corporate deposits that weren't clearly operational deposits, and in some cases, been a little more aggressive about asking them actually not to have it here because we wanted to make room for other things that we thought were really important strategically such as not being closed for business on the consumer side, which those folks would not understand, is hopefully just something that's temporary.

在我們的公司業務中，我們一直非常非常謹慎地鼓勵我們的銀行家引入大量不屬於明顯運營存款的公司存款，並且在某些情況下，更積極地要求他們實際上不要把這些存款放在這裡因為我們想為我們認為在策略上非常重要的其他事情騰出空間，例如不要關閉消費者方面的業務，這些人不會理解，希望這只是暫時的。

So those are the places that in the short term would benefit from the asset cap being lifted. I think when you get beyond that, the reality is when you look at what we've been able to do and the amount of excess capital that we have, we're trying to deploy that by -- through the dividend and through our share buybacks because there's only so much that we should keep around and not return to shareholders.

因此，這些領域在短期內將受益於資產上限的取消。我認為，當你超越這一點時，現實是，當你看看我們已經能夠做的事情以及我們擁有的過剩資本數額時，我們正試圖通過股息和我們的股份來部署它回購，因為我們應該保留的東西是有限的，而不是回報給股東。

But we still -- as I talked about, we think there are plenty of opportunities when you look around our different businesses to achieve higher returns by reinvesting it inside the business. It's not anything which is -- I would describe it as dramatic. But in terms of the things that we can do when we don't have the constraints, take our -- whether it's our consumer business or our wealth business to build out our banking product set, to be more aggressive about being full spectrum in terms of where we are on the lending side and the deposit side.

但正如我所說，我們仍然認為，當你環顧我們的不同業務時，有很多機會透過在業務內部再投資來實現更高的回報。這不是什麼——我會把它描述為戲劇性的。但是，就我們在不受限制時可以做的事情而言，無論是我們的消費者業務還是我們的財富業務，都可以構建我們的銀行產品集，更加積極地在全方位方面採取行動我們在貸款方和存款方的情況。

Across all of our businesses, we've been very, very conservative in what we have asked people to do because we don't want to have an asset cap issue. So again, I would describe it as it's the -- it would be the ability to grow in the things that we're confident at that we do well, that we have, in some ways, consciously and in some ways, unconsciously restrained the company from doing.

在我們所有的業務中，我們要求人們做的事情一直非常非常保守，因為我們不想有資產上限問題。所以，我再次將其描述為——這將是一種在我們有信心做好的事情上成長的能力，我們在某些​​方面、有意識地、無意識地克制了我們所做的事情。 。

But all in all, certainly, without an asset cap, it's not a neutral. It's a positive because of the things that we proactively stopped as well as we're just limited in our ability to take advantage of the franchise that we have. And you've seen others that don't have those constraints but have the quality franchise as well, and you see how they benefited not just versus us but versus the broader banking set.

但總而言之，如果沒有資產上限，它就不是中性的。這是積極的，因為我們主動停止了一些事情，而且我們利用我們擁有的特許經營權的能力也受到限制。你已經看到其他人沒有這些限制，但也擁有優質的特許經營權，你會看到他們如何受益，不僅與我們相比，而且與更廣泛的銀行業相比。

The next question will come from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the 2024 NII guide, I understand that you feel better about the NII outlook here but you're watching customer behavior. I know you did mention loan growth. Did you lower your loan growth outlook that's baked into that guidance this quarter versus what you had in there last quarter? And either way, are you able to help us with what that expectation is on the loan growth front?

在 2024 年 NII 指南中，我知道您對此處的 NII 前景感覺更好，但您正在觀察客戶行為。我知道你確實提到了貸款成長。與上季相比，您是否降低了本季指引中的貸款成長預期？無論哪種方式，您能否幫助我們實現貸款成長的預期？

Yes. John, it's Mike. What we said in January is that we expected loans to decline in the first half, and so that's about what we're seeing, right? So again, it's slightly lower than what we modeled, but it's pretty close to sort of what our expectation. And then we expect a little bit of growth in the second half of the year, and overall balances weren't going to do much for the full year.

是的。約翰，是麥克。我們在一月份說過，我們預計上半年貸款會下降，所以這就是我們所看到的，對嗎？同樣，它比我們的模型略低，但非常接近我們的預期。然後我們預計下半年會有一點成長，整體餘額不會對全年產生太大影響。

And so at this point, could we be off on that a little bit? Maybe. And could it be a little lower? Maybe. Could it be a little higher? Yes, for sure. And so -- but I think the more meaningful drivers this year of where NII ends up, it's going to come back to deposits, right? And what's the level? What's the mix? What's the pricing look like, given where the environment is? And I think that will be the more meaningful place to focus.

那麼在這一點上，我們可以稍微偏離一下嗎？或許。而且可以再低一點嗎？或許。能不能再高一點？是肯定的。所以，但我認為今年 NII 最終的更有意義的驅動因素是存款，對嗎？而什麼水平呢？混合是什麼？考慮到環境，定價是怎麼樣的？我認為這將是更有意義的關注點。

Okay. And related to that, any deposit growth expectation that you could share?

好的。與此相關，您可以分享任何存款成長預期嗎？

Yes. I mean I think again, it's -- our full year guidance that we gave you or assumptions we gave you in January, where we thought the commercial side would be pretty flat to where we are, to where we started the year, that's coming in slightly better than what we had modeled. In the consumer side, we would likely see a little bit of more decline as well as mix shift. And again, that's what you're seeing so far.

是的。我的意思是，我再次認為，這是我們向您提供的全年指導或我們在一月份向您提供的假設，我們認為商業方面將與我們目前的情況、我們今年年初的情況相當持平，這是即將到來的比我們建模的稍微​​好一點。在消費者方面，我們可能會看到更多的下降以及組合的轉變。再說一次，這就是您到目前為止所看到的。

Listen, we just -- we want to be really careful in all this, right? We're not -- we're trying to be as transparent as we can be about what we're seeing without getting over our skis and making predictions that none of us have the answers to. And so like when you boil it all down in terms of the customer activity that we're seeing, a touch less here, a touch more there. There's not a big change from what we said 3 months ago in terms of flows on the deposit and the lending side.

聽著，我們只是——我們想在這一切上非常小心，對吧？我們不是——我們試圖盡可能透明地描述我們所看到的情況，而不是做出我們都沒有答案的預測。就像當你把這一切歸結為我們所看到的客戶活動時，這裡少一點，那裡多一點。從存款和貸款方面的流量來看，與三個月前我們所說的沒有太大變化。

It really is relatively small relative to the big NII picture and what's going to drive NII at this point. So if we saw big changes there, we might say, let's change guidance. But it's tweaking along the way and we'll see how it continues to pan out. And then what we said is relative to the rate environment, it's just -- again, it's -- this is a full year number and we've had a couple of months go by. It's just too early to mark the whole thing to market based upon that. But again, we also wanted to just provide the context, as Mike has said and I said in my remarks, certainly, what we've seen is helpful relative to just the pure overall rate and curve piece of it.

相對於 NII 的整體情況以及此時將推動 NII 的因素而言，它確實相對較小。因此，如果我們看到那裡發生了重大變化，我們可能會說，讓我們改變指導。但它一路走來一直在調整，我們將看看它如何繼續取得成功。然後我們所說的是相對於利率環境的，這只是——再說一遍——這是全年的數字，我們已經過去了幾個月了。以此為基礎將整個產品推向市場還為時過早。但同樣，我們也想提供背景信息，正如邁克和我在發言中所說的那樣，當然，我們所看到的相對於純粹的總體利率和曲線部分是有幫助的。

Okay, that's very helpful. I appreciate the color there. If I could just ask one more along the credit side. NPA decline is encouraging there, and I know it can be volatile. Can you just maybe talk about NPA inflows? Did you see a pullback there? Did you see that on the CRE side? Is there anything to extract in that?

好的，這非常有幫助。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。如果我能在信用方面再問一個就好了。那裡的不良資產下降令人鼓舞，而且我知道它可能會波動。能談談不良資產流入嗎？您看到那裡有回調嗎？你在 CRE 方面看到了嗎？這裡面有什麼可提取的嗎？

Yes. No, look, I think what you're seeing on the -- when you talk about commercial real estate, you're really talking about office. And what you saw in the office space is actually it not moved at all and get worse or not get worse in the quarter. And so you actually saw nonperforming assets not -- coming down a little bit in the CRE space as we've charged off some loans, and they weren't replaced by other items. And so that's a positive in the sense that it's not deteriorating at this point. And then everything else is sort of moving around like as you would expect. There's not substantial movements across the rest of the portfolio.

是的。不，聽著，我認為你所看到的——當你談論商業房地產時，你實際上談論的是辦公室。你在辦公空間中看到的實際上是它根本沒有移動並且在本季度變得更糟或沒有變得更糟。因此，您實際上看到商業房地產領域的不良資產略有下降，因為我們沖銷了一些貸款，而且它們沒有被其他項目取代。因此，從某種意義上說，這是積極的，因為目前情況還沒有惡化。然後其他一切都會像你所期望的那樣改變。投資組合的其餘部分沒有重大變動。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Want to follow up on the comment that costs this year could come in higher on higher revenues, investment advisory, and I would assume the same if banking and trading continue to be so strong. Obviously, that's a net positive to earnings overall. But how would you frame the operating leverage if you can pick which revenue buckets? But if those market-sensitive revenues are $1 billion higher, is there kind of 40% cost against that, 50%? How would you frame that?

想要跟進這樣的評論，即今年的成本可能會因收入和投資諮詢的增加而增加，如果銀行和貿易繼續如此強勁，我會假設同樣的情況。顯然，這對整體獲利產生淨正面影響。但是，如果您可以選擇哪些收入來源，您將如何建立營運槓桿？但如果那些對市場敏感的收入高出 10 億美元，是否有 40% 的成本與 50% 的成本相對？你會如何建構它？

Yes. And really what we're referring to when we mentioned that is primarily in the wealth management business is where we're focused, given where market levels are. And that business is -- the cost-to-income ratio is pretty stable there in terms of the revenue-related comp. And so it's a little less than 50% in terms of how to think about it. So the operating leverage is good.

是的。事實上，當我們提到財富管理業務時，我們指的是我們關注的重點，考慮到市場水平。就與收入相關的比較而言，該業務的成本收入比相當穩定。所以就如何思考這個問題而言，這個比例略低於 50%。因此經營槓桿良好。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just specifically on banking and trading, I mean, I know you guys invested in those businesses, so there's upfront cost when the revenues come. But it seems like the operating leverage in that segment has been very, very strong. And is that something that you think can continue if those revenues continue to surprise? Or could we see some upward pressure to cost from that, again, a positive to earnings overall but...

好的。這很有幫助。然後，特別是在銀行和交易方面，我的意思是，我知道你們投資了這些業務，因此當收入到來時會產生前期成本。但該領域的營運槓桿似乎非常非常強大。如果這些收入繼續令人驚訝，您認為這種情況可以繼續嗎？或者我們是否會看到成本上升的壓力，再次對整體盈利產生積極影響，但...

Yes. No, look, I think the cost to invest there, as Charlie noted, is in our numbers, right, so that's already there. So we're already anticipating that. And at this point, we don't see that being a big pressure point one way or the other. But obviously, as you know, if revenues like far exceed our expectations in a positive way, that would come with a little bit of comp, too. So that would be a good thing overall.

是的。不，你看，我認為正如查理指出的那樣，在那裡投資的成本就在我們的數字中，對吧，所以這已經在那裡了。所以我們已經預料到了。目前，我們並不認為這會成為一個巨大的壓力點。但顯然，如您所知，如果收入以積極的方式遠遠超出我們的預期，那麼也會帶來一點補償。所以整體來說這會是一件好事。

The next question will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Mike, you touched on your noninterest-bearing deposits declined to about 26% of deposits. Do you guys have a sense what's the long-term normalization level for noninterest-bearing deposits as you look out over the 12-month horizon? Assuming rates do not go up, we have stable rates, maybe they come down a little bit.

麥克，您談到您的無息存款下降到存款的 26% 左右。展望未來 12 個月，你們知道無息存款的長期正常化程度是多少嗎？假設利率不上升，我們的利率穩定，也許會下降一點。

Yes. Look, I mean, it's a hard thing to say with a whole lot of certainty, Gerard, in terms of exactly where it's going to stabilize. It will stabilize at some point, particularly as you look at the underlying mix of the consumer deposit base, right? A good chunk of our consumer deposits are in accounts less than [250]. They are generally operating accounts for a lot of people, and so this thing will stabilize as we go. But as you've seen, we've had some pretty consistent, plus or minus a little bit, each quarter as we've gone through the last number of quarters. But at some point soon, that will start to -- we would expect that to stabilize, but we'll see exactly where it does.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，傑拉德，就其穩定的確切位置而言，很難非常肯定地說。它會在某個時候穩定下來，特別是當你觀察消費者存款基礎的基本組合時，對嗎？我們有很大一部分的消費者存款都存放在小於 [250] 的帳戶中。他們通常會為很多人操作帳戶，所以隨著我們的發展，這個事情會穩定下來。但正如您所看到的，在我們過去的幾個季度中，每個季度我們都有一些相當一致的情況，加減一點。但在很快的某個時候，這將開始——我們預計會穩定下來，但我們將確切地看到它會發生什麼。

And is it fair to assume that the rate of change in the deposit betas is declining, where eventually those deposit betas flatten out as well?

假設存款貝塔值的變動率正在下降，最終這些存款貝塔值也會趨於平緩，這樣的假設是否公平？

Yes. Once you start seeing more stabilization in the mix, that's when you'll see deposit costs on the consumer side stabilize, right? Because what you're seeing now is people -- as I mentioned earlier, people are spending money in their checking account, low interest cost for us. And then you're seeing growth in CDs and some of the savings accounts, which are higher cost. And that mix shift will stabilize. It's very related to your first question around noninterest-bearing, right? Once -- they're kind of related together, right? Once you get to sort of that core operating balance in people's accounts, then that's when you'll see both of those stabilize.

是的。一旦你開始看到組合更加穩定，你就會看到消費者方面的存款成本穩定，對嗎？因為你現在看到的是人——正如我之前提到的，人們在支票帳戶上花錢，對我們來說利息成本很低。然後你會看到 CD 和一些儲蓄帳戶的成長，這些帳戶的成本更高。這種混合轉變將會穩定下來。這與您關於無息的第一個問題非常相關，對嗎？曾經——他們有某種聯繫，對吧？一旦你在人們的帳戶中達到了核心營運平衡，那麼你就會看到這兩者都穩定下來。

Great. And then just as a follow-up on credit. Obviously, you guys put up overall good numbers and especially in that commercial real estate area, as you highlighted. Coming back to the credit cards, you pointed out that the charge-offs were up but in line with the expectations. Assuming the economy does not head into a recession later this year and unemployment goes up to 6%, say it stays around 4%, what are you guys thinking for like a peak in net charge-offs or credit cards? And when do you think you could reach that?

偉大的。然後就作為信用的後續行動。顯然，正如您所強調的那樣，你們總體上取得了不錯的成績，尤其是在商業房地產領域。回到信用卡，您指出沖銷增加，但符合預期。假設今年稍後經濟不會陷入衰退，失業率上升到 6%，比如說維持在 4% 左右，你們認為淨沖銷或信用卡高峰會怎樣？你認為什麼時候可以達到這個目標？

Yes. Look, I think you got to really dig into the underlying dynamics of what's happening in the portfolio, right? We're in the middle of a refresh of our product set. We're seeing faster growth in new accounts and new balances coming on than maybe other players, just given the investments we've been making now for the better part of 3 years. And so that -- with that comes some maturation of the new vintages. At some point, that should peak and you'll start to see sort of the normal behavior.

是的。聽著，我認為你必須真正深入研究投資組合中發生的事情的潛在動態，對嗎？我們正在更新我們的產品集。考慮到我們三年來大部分時間的投資，我們發現新帳戶和新餘額的成長速度可能比其他參與者更快。因此，新年份酒的成熟度隨之而來。在某個時刻，這種情況應該達到頂峰，您將開始看到一些正常的行為。

But I'd just come back to, we spend a lot of time looking at each of the underlying vintages here. Everything is performing pretty much -- very much on top of what we would have expected or, in a couple of cases, maybe slightly better. And the quality of the new accounts we're putting on are -- the credit quality of them looks very good and continues to be the case. So I would just say that we're in that normal phase of maturation. And as it sort of peaks, we'll sort of let you know when we sort of feel like we're there, but it should be coming over the coming quarters.

但我想回來的是，我們花了很多時間研究這裡的每一個潛在年份。一切都表現得非常好——遠遠超出了我們的預期，或者在某些情況下，可能稍微好一些。我們開設的新帳戶的信用品質看起來非常好，並將繼續如此。所以我只想說我們正處於成熟的正常階段。當它達到頂峰時，我們會在我們感覺到我們已經達到頂峰時通知您，但它應該會在未來幾個季度到來。

And the next question will come from Dave Rochester of Compass Point Research.

下一個問題將來自 Compass Point Research 的 Dave Rochester。

Appreciate all the color on the NII and loan trend outlook. I was just wondering on the loan side if you've noted any sensitivity at all in activity levels in general amongst your commercial customers to presidential elections in the past. And how big of a headwind, if any, you think that could be this year?

欣賞 NII 和貸款趨勢前景的所有色彩。我只是想知道在貸款方面，您是否注意到您的商業客戶的活動水平總體上對過去的總統選舉有任何敏感性。您認為今年的阻力有多大（如果有的話）？

Yes. I mean that's hard. I think certainly, it will be a factor that people incorporate into their thinking of how aggressive or not they want to be in investments they're making. But at this point, that would be really hard to kind of prove out with any sort of empirical data. I think at this point, what we're seeing most is related to the overall sort of macroeconomic environment we're in with such high rates, and people having some uncertainty just generally around where things go from here. But I'm sure that will factor in at least to a small degree at some point as we go through the year.

是的。我的意思是這很難。我認為，這當然會成為人們思考投資是否積極的因素。但在這一點上，很難用任何類型的經驗數據來證明這一點。我認為在這一點上，我們看到的最多的情況與我們所處的整體宏觀經濟環境有關，利率如此之高，人們對事情的發展方向普遍存在一些不確定性。但我確信，在我們度過這一年的某個時刻，這至少會在很小程度上產生影響。

Yes. Okay, I appreciate that. And then just on the trading line, Matt had mentioned the momentum you've seen earlier. You obviously had a great year in trading last year. You had your strongest quarter yet this year. And you've talked about making a lot of investments in the business in recent years. You're still making those now. It seems like you have a lot of momentum in this area where you could grow that this year as well despite having a huge year last year. Just wanted to get your take on all that.

是的。好的，我很欣賞。然後就在交易線上，馬特提到了你之前看到的勢頭。顯然，去年您的交易表現非常出色。今年您經歷了迄今為止最強勁的季度。您談到了近年來對該業務進行了大量投資。你現在還在做那些事。看起來你在這個領域有很大的動力，儘管去年有一個巨大的一年，但今年你也可以成長。只是想聽聽您對這一切的看法。

Well, the environment is going to matter a lot. And so we've certainly been helped by some of the volatility that we've seen over the last 4, 5 quarters. And so that could change the outcome quite materially for all of us in the industry and the trading line. So keep that in mind. But as you said, we're continuing to make -- systematically make some investments there, and we feel good about that.

嗯，環境非常重要。因此，過去 4、5 個季度的一些波動無疑對我們有所幫助。因此，這可能會極大地改變我們行業和貿易行業所有人的結果。所以記住這一點。但正如你所說，我們正在繼續有系統地在那裡進行一些投資，我們對此感到滿意。

And I think we continue to see some good performance from a market share point of view across those places we've been making the investments. But as Charlie also noted, we're somewhat constrained in some of those businesses. But we feel good about the progress that the team has made over the last couple of years.

我認為，從市場份額的角度來看，我們在投資的那些地方繼續看到了一些良好的表現。但正如查理也指出的那樣，我們在其中一些業務上受到了一定的限制。但我們對團隊在過去幾年所取得的進步感到滿意。

And our final question for today will come from Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of questions. Firstly, financial advisers. Can you give some color on what those numbers have been doing over the past year, past quarter since that's not disclosed anymore? Are you building? What types of advisers? Experience is that new recruits from college. Any color, Mike?

有幾個問題。首先是財務顧問。您能否詳細說明一下這些數字在過去一年、上個季度（自不再披露以來）的表現？你在建築嗎？顧問有哪些類型？經驗是大學新進的。有什麼顏色嗎，麥克？

Yes, sure. So as you pointed out, over the last -- if you go back a couple of years ago, and you definitely saw some declines that we were seeing in the adviser workforce. But Barry Sommers and team have been working really hard to sort of not only stem some of the attrition but also begin to really ramp up the recruiting again. And I think we're starting to see some of that come through.

是的，當然。正如您所指出的，如果您回到幾年前，您肯定會看到我們在顧問團隊中看到的一些下降。但巴里·薩默斯和團隊一直在努力工作，不僅要阻止一些人員流失，還要開始真正加強招募。我認為我們已經開始看到其中的一些成果。

And so a lot of that -- we're back to like more normal, maybe slightly below normal attrition levels across the business, which is good. And we're feeling very good about our ability to recruit high-quality advisers. And so I think that trend you saw a couple of years ago was definitely different. And we'll continue to stay at it. We're mostly focused on experienced advisers, a little less on, as you mentioned, college recruits and that type of thing.

所以很多——我們回到了更正常的狀態，整個業務的人員流失水平可能略低於正常水平，這是件好事。我們對招募高素質顧問的能力感到非常滿意。所以我認為你幾年前看到的趨勢絕對是不同的。我們將繼續堅持下去。我們主要專注於經驗豐富的顧問，而不是像你提到的那樣，大學招生之類的。

Yes, the only thing -- listen, Vivek, this is -- I mean, we're recruiting -- I mean, it's across -- there's no one prototype here. We are -- we've recruited some of the biggest teams in the country that have traded over the last 1.5 years. And these are people that wouldn't have come to Wells Fargo before that because of the issues. And it was competitive and they chose to come here because of our capabilities, not because of what we're willing to pay them.

是的，唯一的一件事——聽著，維韋克，這是——我的意思是，我們正在招募——我的意思是，它已經過去了——這裡沒有一個原型。我們——我們招募了一些在過去 1.5 年裡交易過的國內最大的團隊。在此之前，這些人不會因為這些問題而來到富國銀行。這是有競爭力的，他們選擇來這裡是因為我們的能力，而不是因為我們願意付錢給他們。

At the same side, we're staffing up in our bank branches and those are more entry-level people, people who come out of the banker workforce. And it's going to be across the board. But there's no doubt that the trajectory we have with our FA population is very different today than several years ago.

同時，我們正在為銀行分行配備人員，這些人都是初級人員，來自銀行家隊伍。這將是全面的。但毫無疑問，我們今天的 FA 人口軌跡與幾年前有很大不同。

Okay. That's helpful. A completely different question, I want to go back to NII, not to beat the dead horse. But given that higher rates -- I mean, sorry, less rate cuts are better for you, if we -- so that should help NII now. But if we see rate cuts and eventually in '25, does that mean that the troughing of NII could get pushed further back?

好的。這很有幫助。完全不同的問題，我想回到NII，而不是死馬當活馬醫。但考慮到更高的利率——我的意思是，抱歉，如果我們降息幅度較小，對你來說更好——所以這現在應該會對NII有所幫助。但如果我們最終在 25 年看到降息，這是否意味著 NII 的觸底可能會進一步推遲？

Yes. I mean look, we'll see, Vivek, where it exactly troughs. Obviously, sort of the exact pace of rate cuts is part of the equation, but we also have to look at sort of the broader trends that we've talked about throughout the call, right? And how do depositors sort of react? Where does the mix shift stabilize? And how do -- what do we see from a competitive environment? So all of that matters as you sort of look at where exactly it's going to trough.

是的。我的意思是，維韋克，我們會看到它到底在哪裡。顯然，降息的確切速度是等式的一部分，但我們也必須關注我們在整個電話會議中討論的更廣泛的趨勢，對嗎？儲戶有何反應？混合變化在哪裡穩定？我們如何從競爭環境中看到什麼？因此，當你看看它到底會在哪裡陷入低谷時，所有這些都很重要。

All right. Thank you, everyone. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you next quarter.

好的。謝謝大家。欣賞它。我們將在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you, all, for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。這時，各方都可能斷開連線。