富國銀行 (WFC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾 (John Campbell)。主席先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss fourth quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded. .

早安.感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，我們的執行長 Charlie Scharf；我們的財務長 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第四季度的業績並回答您的問題。此通話正在錄音。 。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our fourth quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第四季度收益資料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和簡報，可在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上取得。我還想提醒您，我們可能在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明有風險和不確定性。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素，其中包括今天提交的包含我們盈利材料的 8-K 表格。有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務指標的信息，包括這些指標與 GAAP 指標的調節表，也可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件和我們網站上提供的盈利材料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John. I'll make some brief comments about our results and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review fourth quarter results as well as our net interest income and expense expectations for 2024 before we take your questions.

謝謝，約翰。我將對我們的結果做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項的最新情況。然後，在回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以審查第四季度業績以及我們對 2024 年的淨利息收入和支出預期。

Let me start with some 2023 financial highlights. Although our improved 2023 results benefited from the strong economic environment and higher interest rates, our continued focus on efficiency and strong credit discipline were important contributors as well. We grew net income and diluted earnings per share with higher revenue and lower expenses.

讓我先介紹 2023 年的一些財務亮點。儘管我們 2023 年業績的改善得益於強勁的經濟環境和較高的利率，但我們對效率的持續關注和嚴格的信貸紀律也是重要的貢獻者。我們透過增加收入和減少費用來增加淨利潤和稀釋每股收益。

Revenue growth was driven by strong growth in net interest income as well as higher noninterest income. Our expenses were down from a year ago, benefiting from lower operating losses as well as the impact of efficiency initiatives. As expected, net charge-offs increased from historical low levels and our allowance for credit losses increased as well.

收入成長是由淨利息收入的強勁成長以及非利息收入的增加所推動的。我們的開支比一年前有所下降，這得益於營運虧損的減少以及效率措施的影響。正如預期的那樣，淨沖銷從歷史低點上升，我們的信貸損失準備金也有所增加。

We continue to closely monitor our portfolios, taking credit tightening actions as appropriate. We returned a significant amount of capital to our shareholders, including increasing our common stock dividend from $0.30 per share to $0.35 per share in the third quarter, and we repurchased $12 billion of common stock.

我們繼續密切監控我們的投資組合，並酌情採取信貸緊縮行動。我們向股東返還了大量資本，包括第三季將普通股股息從每股 0.30 美元增加到每股 0.35 美元，並回購了 120 億美元的普通股。

Average loans increased modestly with growth in the first half of the year, offsetting declines later in the year, reflecting weaker loan demand as well as credit tightening actions. Average deposits were down driven by consumer spending as well as customers migrating to higher-yielding alternatives.

平均貸款隨著上半年的成長而小幅成長，抵消了今年稍後的下降，反映出貸款需求疲軟以及信貸緊縮行動。消費者支出以及客戶轉向高收益替代品導致平均存款下降。

The financial health of our consumers remain strong. While average deposit balances per customer continue to decline from their peak, they remained above prepandemic levels as wage growth has more than offset increased spending. Having said that, there are cohorts of customers that are more stressed.

我們消費者的財務狀況依然強勁。儘管每位客戶的平均存款餘額繼續從高峰下降，但仍高於疫情前的水平，因為薪資成長足以抵消支出的增加。話雖如此，有些客戶的壓力更大。

Consumer spending remained strong. Credit card spend was up 15% for the year and was remarkably stable throughout the year, with growth rates strong across all categories, except fuel, which was impacted by lower gas prices. Debit card spending was up 1% for the year. Discretionary spend growth slowed from a year ago while nondiscretionary spend was stable. Our risk and control work remains our top priority, and I refer you to the comments I made last quarter regarding both our progress in completing the work as well as the risks that remain.

消費者支出依然強勁。信用卡支出全年增長 15%，並且全年非常穩定，除燃料外，所有類別的增長率均強勁，但燃料受到汽油價格下跌的影響。借記卡支出今年成長了 1%。可自由支配支出成長較上年同期放緩，而非可自由支配支出維持穩定。我們的風險和控制工作仍然是我們的首要任務，我請您參考我上季度就我們完成工作的進展以及仍然存在的風險發表的評論。

We continue to execute on our strategic priorities. And while it is early, and we have more to do, we are starting to see improved growth and increase market share in parts of the company which we believe will drive higher returns over time.

我們繼續執行我們的戰略重點。雖然現在還為時過早，而且我們還有更多工作要做，但我們開始看到公司部分業務的成長有所改善並增加了市場份額，我們相信隨著時間的推移，這將帶來更高的回報。

Let me provide just a few examples. Our new credit card products have driven an increase in consumer spend at a rate significantly better than the industry average. We've also been investing in the Corporate Investment Bank. CIB revenue grew 26% from a year ago, and our investment banking and trading market shares increased. The positive results in both areas were accomplished while maintaining our existing risk appetite.

讓我舉幾個例子。我們的新信用卡產品以明顯高於行業平均的速度推動了消費者支出的成長。我們也投資了企業投資銀行。 CIB收入年增26%，投資銀行和交易市場佔有率增加。在保持我們現有風險偏好的同時，這兩個領域都取得了積極成果。

Additionally, continued execution of our more focused home lending strategy should also produce higher returns and earnings over the next several years. And while our consumer, small and business banking, commercial banking and wealth and investment management business remains strong, opportunities to increase share are significant. Other accomplishments include we launched a new co-branded credit cards with Choice Hotels, building on the new products we've launched over the last couple of years.

此外，繼續執行我們更有針對性的房屋貸款策略也應該在未來幾年產生更高的回報和收益。儘管我們的消費者、小型和企業銀行業務、商業銀行業務以及財富和投資管理業務依然強勁，但增加份額的機會很大。其他成就包括我們在過去幾年推出的新產品的基礎上，與精品國際酒店集團推出了新的聯名信用卡。

We continued to enhance our mobile app, which is driving mobile adoption momentum, adding 1.6 million mobile active customers in 2023 and increasing mobile logins 11% from a year ago. Consumers interacted over 20 million times last year with Fargo, our AI-powered virtual assistant. We exceeded our $150 million commitment to help advance racial equity in home ownership. Our special purpose credit program lowered mortgage rates and reduced financing costs to help thousands of customers.

我們繼續增強我們的行動應用程序，這推動了行動應用的發展勢頭，到 2023 年將增加 160 萬行動活躍客戶，行動登入量比一年前增加 11%。去年，消費者與我們人工智慧驅動的虛擬助理 Fargo 互動超過 2000 萬次。我們超越了 1.5 億美元的承諾，幫助促進住房所有權方面的種族平等。我們的特殊目的信貸計劃降低了抵押貸款利率並降低了融資成本，以幫助數千名客戶。

For commercial clients, we continued to invest in order to have the right people and the right capabilities to better penetrate our customer base. We continue to attract experienced bankers to our investment bank helping us drive growth in priority products and sectors.

對於商業客戶，我們繼續投資，以便擁有合適的人員和合適的能力，以便更好地滲透我們的客戶群。我們持續吸引經驗豐富的銀行家加入我們的投資銀行，幫助我們推動優先產品和產業的成長。

Throughout 2023, we added new heads and co-heads of equity capital markets, global mergers and acquisitions, financial institutions, financial sponsors, health care and technology, media and telecom. We've also started to see the benefit of the targeted investments we are making in our trading capabilities, including adding talent and improved technology with a focus on supporting our core clients.

2023 年，我們增加了股權資本市場、全球併購、金融機構、金融贊助商、醫療保健和技術、媒體和電信領域的新負責人和聯合負責人。我們也開始看到我們在交易能力方面進行的有針對性的投資的好處，包括增加人才和改進技術，重點是支持我們的核心客戶。

Finally, we're launching a partnership with Centerbridge, which helps us provide our middle market clients with access to alternative sources of capital, another example of how we're providing solutions for our clients. Investing in our business and introducing new products and services remains a priority in 2024, and Mike will highlight some of the opportunities later on the call.

最後，我們與 Centerbridge 建立了合作夥伴關係，這有助於我們為中間市場客戶提供替代資金來源，這是我們為客戶提供解決方案的另一個例子。投資我們的業務並推出新產品和服務仍然是 2024 年的首要任務，麥克將在稍後的電話會議上強調一些機會。

In 2023, we also continued to take a closer look at the businesses that were not in sync with our strategic priorities. As I mentioned, we simplified the home lending business, which included exiting the correspondent business. We are reducing the size of our servicing portfolio as well as optimizing our retail team to align with our narrower customer focus.

2023年，我們也持續仔細檢視與策略重點不同步的業務。正如我所提到的，我們簡化了房屋貸款業務，其中包括退出代理業務。我們正在縮小服務組合的規模，並優化我們的零售團隊，以適應我們更狹窄的客戶關注點。

In the third quarter, we sold private equity investments in certain Norwest Equity Partners and Norwest Mezzanine Partners funds.

第三季度，我們出售了某些 Norwest Equity Partners 和 Norwest Mezzanine Partners 基金的私募股權投資。

We also continue to invest in the communities we serve throughout the year, and you can see many examples at the beginning of our slide presentation. As we look forward, our business performance remains sensitive to interest rates and the health of the U.S. economy but we are confident that the actions we are taking will drive stronger results over the cycle.

我們也繼續對我們全年服務的社區進行投資，您可以在我們幻燈片演示的開頭看到許多範例。展望未來，我們的業務表現仍然對利率和美國經濟的健康狀況敏感，但我們相信我們正在採取的行動將在整個週期中帶來更強勁的業績。

We are closely monitoring credit and while we've seen modest deterioration, it remains consistent with our expectations. Our capital position remains strong and returning excess capital to shareholders remains a priority.

我們正在密切監控信貸情況，雖然我們看到信貸略有惡化，但它仍然符合我們的預期。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，向股東返還多餘資本仍是我們的首要任務。

Mike will talk more about our expectations for 2024, but I'd like to make a couple of points. First, we have seen and have said that we expect net interest income to decline from the high levels we saw as rates were rising last year. And given that we remain modestly asset sensitive, the implied Fed rate path reflected in recent forward curves impacts our outlook for NII.

Mike 將更多地談論我們對 2024 年的期望，但我想指出幾點。首先，我們已經看到並說過，我們預計淨利息收入將從去年利率上升時看到的高水準下降。鑑於我們仍然對資產保持適度敏感，近期遠期曲線中反映的隱含聯準會利率路徑會影響我們對NII的前景。

Significant uncertainty exists regarding eventual timing and extent of Federal Reserve interest rate actions. Mike will give you our expectations for net interest income, but please recognize that it is based upon a series of market assumptions, which may be right or may be wrong. We hope the overview of our assumptions is helpful. Second, we remain focused on tightly controlling our expenses, but there are several moving pieces, which Mike will walk you through.

聯準會利率行動的最終時間和程度存在重大不確定性。麥克將向您提供我們對淨利息收入的預期，但請注意，它是基於一系列市場假設，這些假設可能是正確的，也可能是錯誤的。我們希望我們的假設概述有所幫助。其次，我們仍然專注於嚴格控制我們的開支，但有幾個變化的部分，麥克將引導您完成。

We will continue to invest what's necessary for our risk and control work. We continue to realize expense efficiencies. And at this point, we are planning to increase our investment spending to create better growth and higher returns in future. Our expected efficiencies roughly offset our planned increase in additional spend at this point.

我們將繼續投資風險和控制工作所需的資金。我們持續實現費用效率。目前，我們計劃增加投資支出，以在未來創造更好的成長和更高的回報。我們預期的效率大致抵消了我們目前計劃增加的額外支出。

Decisions on how much to invest are dynamic. We closely monitor the outcomes of our investments, and we will adjust our plans based on the success we see. We are focused on our shorter-term results but remain committed to building a well-managed, faster-growing and higher return company over the medium and longer term. I have said and I remain excited about the opportunities to increase our share and returns across all of our businesses.

投資多少的決定是動態的。我們密切關注投資的結果，並根據我們所看到的成功來調整我們的計劃。我們專注於短期業績，但仍致力於在中長期內打造一家管理完善、成長更快、回報更高的公司。我已經說過，而且我仍然對增加我們所有業務的份額和回報的機會感到興奮。

We believe the actions we have taken and continue to take, provide the path to 50% ROTCE. I want to conclude by thanking our employees for their dedication, talent and all they do to move our company forward. I'm excited about Wells Fargo's future and all that we will accomplish in the year ahead.

我們相信，我們已經採取並繼續採取的行動將為實現 50% ROTCE 提供途徑。最後，我要感謝我們的員工的奉獻精神、才華以及他們為推動我們公司前進所做的一切。我對富國銀行的未來以及我們在未來一年完成的一切感到興奮。

Mike, over to you.

麥克，交給你了。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. The first couple of slides summarize how we helped our customers and communities last year, some of which Charlie highlighted, so I'm going to start with our fourth quarter financial results on Slide 4.

謝謝你，查理，大家早安。前幾張投影片總結了去年我們如何幫助客戶和社區，查理強調了其中一些內容，所以我將從投影片 4 上的第四季財務表現開始。

Net income for the fourth quarter was $3.4 billion, or $0.86 per diluted common share. Our fourth quarter results included $1.9 billion or $0.40 per share for the FDIC special assessment, and $1.1 billion of severance expense, including $969 million or $0.20 per share for planned actions. These expenses were partially offset by $621 million or $0.17 per share of discrete tax benefits related to the resolution of prior period tax matters.

第四季淨利為 34 億美元，即稀釋後普通股每股 0.86 美元。我們第四季的業績包括用於 FDIC 特別評估的 19 億美元或每股 0.40 美元，以及 11 億美元的遣散費，其中包括用於計劃行動的 9.69 億美元或每股 0.20 美元。這些費用被與解決前期稅務問題相關的 6.21 億美元或每股 0.17 美元的離散稅收優惠部分抵消。

Turning to capital and liquidity on Slide 5. Our CET1 ratio increased to 11.4% in the fourth quarter, 2.5 percentage points above our regulatory minimum plus buffers. This increase was driven by our earnings and an increase in accumulated other comprehensive income, reflecting lower interest rates and tighter mortgage-backed security spreads.

轉向投影片 5 上的資本和流動性。我們的 CET1 比率在第四季度增至 11.4%，比我們的監管最低標準和緩衝高出 2.5 個百分點。這一增長是由我們的收益和累積其他綜合收入的增長所推動的，反映出利率下降和抵押貸款支持證券利差收窄。

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased $2.4 billion in common stock. We repurchased a total of $12 billion in common stock in 2023, and we currently expect to be able to repurchase more than this amount in 2024. We will continue to consider current market conditions, including interest rate movements, risk-weighted asset levels, stress test results as well as any potential economic uncertainty with respect to the amount and timing of share repurchases over the coming quarters.

第四季度，我們回購了 24 億美元的普通股。我們在 2023 年總共回購了 120 億美元的普通股，目前預計 2024 年將能回購超過這筆金額。我們將繼續考慮目前的市場狀況，包括利率變動、風險加權資產水準、壓力測試結果以及未來幾季股票回購數量和時間方面的任何潛在經濟不確定性。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 7. As expected, net loan charge-offs increased up 17 basis points from the third quarter to 53 basis points of average loans, driven by commercial real estate office and credit card loans. The increase in commercial net loan charge-offs reflected the higher losses in commercial real estate office, while losses in the rest of our commercial portfolio were stable in the third quarter. As expected, losses started to materialize in our commercial real estate office portfolio as market fundamentals remain weak. The losses were across a number of loans spread across various markets and were driven by borrower performance, lower appraisals were the result of properties or loans being sold at a loss.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的信貸品質。正如預期的那樣，在商業房地產辦公室和信用卡貸款的推動下，淨貸款沖銷比第三季度增加了 17 個基點，達到平均貸款的 53 個基點。商業淨貸款沖銷的增加反映出商業房地產辦公室的虧損較高，而我們的商業投資組合的其餘部分的虧損在第三季保持穩定。正如預期的那樣，由於市場基本面依然疲軟，我們的商業房地產辦公室投資組合開始出現虧損。損失發生在分佈在各個市場的多筆貸款中，並且是由借款人的表現造成的，較低的評估是由於房產或貸款虧本出售的結果。

We substantially built reserves for this portfolio throughout 2023 as criticized and nonperforming assets increased. And while we expect additional losses in the coming quarters given the market fundamentals, and capital markets and liquidity challenges in this sector, the amounts will likely be uneven and episodic. Our commercial real estate team has a rigorous monitoring process and continues to derisk and reduce exposure, and we're using this information to evaluate our allowance, which I will discuss later.

隨著批評資產和不良資產的增加，我們在 2023 年大幅為該投資組合建立了準備金。鑑於市場基本面、資本市場和該行業的流動性挑戰，我們預計未來幾季將出現額外損失，但損失金額可能會不平衡且不定期。我們的商業房地產團隊擁有嚴格的監控流程，並不斷降低風險並減少風險敞口，我們正在使用這些資訊來評估我們的津貼，我將在稍後討論。

Consumer net loan charge-offs continued to increase and were up $118 million from the third quarter to 79 basis points of average loans. The increase was driven by the credit card portfolio, which performed as expected with increased losses driven by recent vintages maturing. Nonperforming assets increased 3% from the third quarter as growth in commercial nonaccrual loans more than offset declines in consumer. The increase in commercial real estate nonaccrual loans was driven by a $567 million increase in office nonaccrual loans.

消費者淨貸款沖銷持續增加，較第三季增加 1.18 億美元，達到平均貸款的 79 個基點。這一增長是由信用卡投資組合推動的，該投資組合的表現符合預期，但由於最近年份到期導致虧損增加。由於商業非應計貸款的成長遠遠抵消了消費者貸款的下降，不良資產較第三季增加了 3%。商業房地產非應計貸款的成長是由辦公大樓非應計貸款增加 5.67 億美元推動的。

Moving to Slide 8. Our allowance for credit losses increased slightly in the fourth quarter driven by an increase for credit card and commercial real estate loans, partially offset by a lower allowance for auto loans. The table on the page shows the allowance for credit losses coverage ratio for commercial real estate, including the breakdown of the office portfolio. While the charge-offs we took in the fourth quarter were contemplated in our allowance, we are still early in the cycle. And after going through our quarterly review process, the coverage ratio in our CIB commercial real estate office portfolio remains relatively stable at 11%.

轉向幻燈片 8。由於信用卡和商業房地產貸款增加，我們的信貸損失準備金在第四季度略有增加，但部分被汽車貸款準備減少所抵消。該頁的表格顯示了商業房地產的信用損失準備金覆蓋率，包括辦公室投資組合的細目。雖然我們在第四季度進行的沖銷已計入我們的津貼中，但我們仍處於週期的早期。經過季度審查後，CIB商業房地產辦公室投資組合的覆蓋率維持在11%的相對穩定水準。

On Slide 9, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans were down from both the third quarter and a year ago. Credit card loans continue to grow, while most other categories declined. I'll highlight specific drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 122 basis points from a year ago and 12 basis points from the third quarter, reflecting the higher interest rate environment. Average deposits declined 3% from a year ago as growth in corporate and investment banking was more than offset by declines in other -- in our other deposit gathering businesses, reflecting continued consumer spending and customers reallocating cash into higher-yielding alternatives.

在幻燈片 9 上，我們重點介紹了貸款和存款。平均貸款較第三季和去年同期均有所下降。信用卡貸款持續成長，而大多數其他類別貸款則下降。在討論我們的營運部門績效時，我將重點放在具體的驅動因素。平均貸款收益率較去年同期上升 122 個基點，較第三季上升 12 個基點，反映出較高的利率環境。平均存款較上年同期下降 3%，原因是企業和投資銀行業務的成長被其他存款業務的下降所抵消，反映出持續的消費者支出和客戶將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品上。

Period-end deposits included in the chart on the bottom of the page, were up $4.2 billion from the third quarter as declines in consumer banking and lending were offset by slightly higher deposits in Wealth and Investment Management for the first time in over a year, as well as higher commercial deposits, which included our efforts to attract clients' operational deposits. As expected, our average deposit costs continued to increase, up 22 basis points from the third quarter to 158 basis points with higher deposit costs across all operating segments. The pace of the increase was similar to the third quarter. Our mix of deposits continue to shift with our percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits declining to 27%.

頁面底部圖表中包含的期末存款比第三季度增加了 42 億美元，原因是消費銀行和貸款的下降被財富和投資管理領域一年多以來首次小幅增長的存款所抵消。以及更高的商業存款，其中包括我們吸引客戶經營性存款的努力。如預期，我們的平均存款成本持續上升，較第三季上升 22 個基點至 158 個基點，所有營運部門的存款成本均較高。成長速度與第三季相似。我們的存款結構持續變化，無利息存款比例下降至 27%。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 10. Fourth quarter net interest income declined $662 million or 5% from a year ago due to lower deposit loan balances, partially offset by the impact of higher interest rates. I'll provide details on our 2024 net interest income expectations later on the call.

轉向投影片 10 上的淨利息收入。由於存款貸款餘額減少，第四季淨利息收入年減 6.62 億美元，即 5%，但部分被利率上升的影響所抵銷。我將在稍後的電話會議上提供有關 2024 年淨利息收入預期的詳細資訊。

Turning to expenses on Slide 11. Our fourth quarter noninterest expense included the FDIC special assessment and $1.1 billion of severance expense, including $969 million for planned actions, expenses declined from a year ago driven by lower operating losses. While most of the planned actions should result in lower headcount, some of the actions are related to our workforce location strategy, which should lower occupancy costs and provide other benefits but may not always reduce headcount.

轉向投影片11 上的費用。我們第四季的非利息費用包括FDIC 特別評估和11 億美元的遣散費，其中包括9.69 億美元的計畫行動費用，由於營運虧損減少，費用較去年同期有所下降。雖然大多數計劃的行動應該會導致員工人數減少，但其中一些行動與我們的員工位置策略有關，該策略應該降低佔用成本並提供其他好處，但可能不會總是減少員工數量。

Total expenses increased from the third quarter driven by the FDIC special assessment and higher severance expense. Personnel expense increased $554 million from the third quarter as higher severance expense was partially offset by lower benefits and incentive compensation expense, including certain year-end adjustments as well as the impact of efficiency initiatives, including lower headcount.

由於 FDIC 特別評估和遣散費增加，總支出較第三季增加。人員費用比第三季增加了 5.54 億美元，因為較高的遣散費被較低的福利和激勵補償費用部分抵消，包括某些年終調整以及效率舉措的影響，包括減少員工人數。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 12. Consumer, Small and Business Banking revenue increased 1% from a year ago, driven by higher net interest income, reflecting higher interest rates, partially offset by lower deposit balances. We've been focusing on controlling expenses and lowering the cost to serve our customers, which includes driving digital adoption, simplifying our product portfolio and using technology to automate our operating environment.

轉向我們的營運部門，從幻燈片12 上的消費者銀行和貸款開始。消費者、小型和企業銀行業務收入較上年同期增長了1%，這得益於淨利息收入增加，反映出利率上升，但部分被存款餘額下降所抵銷。我們一直致力於控制費用並降低服務客戶的成本，其中包括推動數位化採用、簡化我們的產品組合以及使用技術實現營運環境自動化。

As our customers continue to shift to lower cost channels, resulting in fewer teller transactions and handled call volumes, we've reduced our total number of branches by over 280 or 6% from a year ago. At the same time, we have been refurbishing our branches as part of an accelerated multiyear effort to transform and refresh our full branch network. I'll highlight other ways we are investing to improve the customer experience later on the call.

隨著我們的客戶繼續轉向成本較低的管道，導致櫃員交易量和處理的電話量減少，我們的分行總數比一年前減少了 280 多個，即 6%。同時，我們一直在翻新我們的分支機構，作為加速改造和更新我們整個分支機構網絡的多年努力的一部分。我將在稍後的電話會議中重點介紹我們為改善客戶體驗而投資的其他方式。

Home lending revenue increased 7% from a year ago. Lower gain on sale margins and originations as well as lower loan balances were more than offset by improved valuations on loans held for sale due to losses in the fourth quarter of 2022. We continue to reduce headcount in home lending in the fourth quarter, down 36% from a year ago reflecting market conditions as well as our new strategy.

房屋貸款收入較去年同期成長 7%。由於2022 年第四季的虧損，持有待售貸款的估值提高，抵消了銷售利潤和發放貸款收益的下降以及貸款餘額的下降。我們繼續減少第四季度房屋貸款的員工人數，減少了36名與一年前相比的百分比反映了市場狀況以及我們的新策略。

Credit card revenue declined 1% from a year ago, driven by the impact of introductory promotional rates and higher rewards expense, partially offset by higher loan balances and interchange revenue. Payment rates have been relatively stable over the past year and remained above pre-pandemic levels.

信用卡收入較上年同期下降 1%，這是由於促銷利率和獎勵費用增加的影響，但部分被貸款餘額和互換收入增加所抵消。過去一年的支付率相對穩定，仍高於疫情前的水平。

New account growth continues to be strong, up 17% from a year ago. Auto revenue declined 19% from a year ago, driven by lower loan balances and continued loan spread compression and personal lending revenue was up 13% from a year ago due to higher loan balances.

新帳戶成長持續強勁，較去年同期成長 17%。由於貸款餘額減少和貸款利差持續壓縮，汽車收入年減 19%，而由於貸款餘額增加，個人貸款收入年增 13%。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 13. Mortgage originations declined 69% from a year ago and 30% from the third quarter reflecting the progress we made on our strategic objectives for this business as well as the decline in the mortgage market. As we executed on our strategic objectives, we've also made significant progress on reducing the amount of third-party loans serviced down 18% from a year ago. The size of our auto portfolio has declined for 7 consecutive quarters and balances were down 11% at the end of the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. Origination volume declined 34% year-over-year, reflecting credit-tightening actions.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。抵押貸款發放量較去年同期下降 69%，較第三季度下降 30%，反映出我們在該業務戰略目標方面取得的進展以及抵押貸款市場的下滑。在我們執行策略目標的同時，我們在減少第三方貸款金額方面也取得了重大進展，比一年前減少了 18%。我們的汽車投資組合規模已連續 7 季下降，第四季末餘額較去年同期下降 11%。發行量較去年同期下降 34%，反映出信貸緊縮行動。

Debit card spend increased 2% from a year ago with both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend up 2% with growth in most categories, except for home improvement, fuel and travel. Credit card spending continued to be strong. It was up 15% from a year ago. All categories grew with double-digit growth rates in every category, except fuel, home improvement, [travel and] apparel.

簽帳卡支出較去年同期成長 2%，其中可自由支配和非可自由支配支出均成長 2%，大多數類別均出現成長（家居裝修、燃料和旅遊除外）。信用卡支出持續強勁。比一年前成長了 15%。除燃料、家居裝修、[旅行和]服裝外，所有類別均以兩位數的增長率增長。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 14. Middle Market Banking revenue increased 6% from a year ago, driven by the impact of higher interest rates and higher deposit-related fees, reflecting lower earnings credit rates. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue increased 9% year-over-year due to the impact of higher interest rates and improved results on equity investments. Average loan balances were up 2% from a year ago, driven by growth in asset-based lending and leasing.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的商業銀行業績。受利率上升和存款相關費用上升的影響，中間市場銀行業務收入較上年同期增長 6%，反映出盈利信貸利率下降。由於利率上升和股權投資績效改善的影響，資產借貸和租賃收入較去年同期成長9%。在資產貸款和租賃成長的推動下，平均貸款餘額較上年同期成長 2%。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 15. Banking revenue increased 15% from a year ago, driven by higher lending revenue, higher investment banking revenue due to increased activity across all products and stronger treasury management results. As Charlie highlighted, we've successfully hired experienced bankers, which is helping us deliver for our clients and positioning us well for when markets improve. Commercial real estate revenue grew 2% from a year ago, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates partially offset by lower loan and deposit balances.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的企業和投資銀行業務。銀行收入較上年同期增長 15%，這得益於貸款收入增加、所有產品活動增加導致的投資銀行收入增加以及資金管理業績的增強。正如查理所強調的那樣，我們成功聘請了經驗豐富的銀行家，這有助於我們為客戶提供服務，並在市場改善時為我們做好準備。商業房地產收入年增 2%，反映出利率上升的影響被貸款和存款餘額下降部分抵銷。

Markets revenue increased 33% from a year ago, driven by higher revenue in structured products, equities, credit products and commodities. Average loans were down 3% from a year ago, with growth in markets more than offset by declines in banking and commercial real estate.

受結構性產品、股票、信貸產品和大宗商品收入增加的推動，市場收入較上年同期成長 33%。平均貸款較去年同期下降 3%，市場成長被銀行和商業房地產的下降所抵消。

On Slide 16, Wealth and Investment Management revenue declined 1% compared to a year ago, reflecting lower net interest income, driven by lower deposit balances as customers continue to reallocate cash into higher-yielding alternatives. The decline in net interest income from a year ago was partially offset by higher asset-based fees due to increased market valuations.

在投影片16 中，財富和投資管理收入與去年同期相比下降了1%，反映出淨利息收入下降，這是由於客戶繼續將現金重新分配到收益更高的替代品上，導致存款餘額下降。淨利息收入較上年同期下降的部分被市場估值上升導致的資產費用上漲所抵銷。

As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so fourth quarter results reflected market valuations as of October 1, which were higher from a year ago. Asset-based fees in the first quarter will reflect valuations as of January 1, which were also higher from a year ago. Average loans were down 3% from a year ago, driven by a decline in securities-based lending.

需要提醒的是，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產是在季度初定價的，因此第四季度的業績反映了截至 10 月 1 日的市場估值，該估值高於一年前。第一季的資產費用將反映截至 1 月 1 日的估值，該估值也高於一年前。由於證券貸款下降，平均貸款年減 3%。

Slide 17 highlights our corporate results. Revenue declined $345 million from a year ago, reflecting higher deposit crediting rates paid to the operating segments. This decline was partially offset by improved results in our affiliated venture capital business on lower impairments.

幻燈片 17 重點介紹了我們的公司業績。營收較上年同期下降 3.45 億美元，反映向營運部門支付的存款貸記利率較高。這一下降被我們附屬創投業務因減損損失減少而改善的績效所部分抵銷。

Turning to our expectations for 2024, starting on Slide 18. Let me start by highlighting our expectations for net interest income. As we look forward, there are a number of factors that could impact our results, including the ultimate path rates, the shape of the yield curve, quantitative tightening in fiscal deficits, consumer behavior and competitive behavior to name just a few, all of which we have little to no control over. This makes it particularly difficult to estimate an interest income for 2024. There is more uncertainty than usual given the market's strong view of rate cut timing in the quantum.

轉向我們對 2024 年的預期，從投影片 18 開始。首先讓我強調我們對淨利息收入的預期。展望未來，有許多因素可能會影響我們的結果，包括最終路徑利率、殖利率曲線的形狀、財政赤字的量化緊縮、消費者行為和競爭行為等等，所有這些我們幾乎無法控制。這使得預測 2024 年的利息收入變得特別困難。鑑於市場對短期降息時機的強烈看法，不確定性比平常更多。

Looking at our results. While we had strong growth in full year net interest income in 2023 versus 2022, our net interest income came down modestly each quarter last year, driven by the higher deposit pricing and mix changes. You can see this impact when you annualize our fourth quarter net interest income, which was down approximately 3% from our full year 2023 net interest income of $52.4 billion.

看看我們的結果。儘管我們 2023 年全年淨利息收入較 2022 年強勁增長，但由於存款定價較高和組合變化，去年每個季度我們的淨利息收入均略有下降。當您將我們第四季的淨利息收入年化時，您可以看到這種影響，該收入比 2023 年全年 524 億美元的淨利息收入下降了約 3%。

Our current expectation is that full year 2024 net interest income could potentially be approximately 7% to 9% lower than our full year 2023. This expectation is anchored on the forward rate curve and a series of business assumptions, including lower rates in the recent forward rate curve, which given our modestly asset-sensitive position would be a headwind to net interest income; a slight decline in average loans for the full year, which includes modest growth in commercial and credit card loans in the second half of the year after a slow start to the year.

我們目前的預期是，2024 年全年淨利息收入可能比 2023 年全年低約 7% 至 9%。這一預期基於遠期利率曲線和一系列業務假設，包括近期遠期利率較低利率曲線，考慮到我們對資產適度敏感的立場，這將成為淨利息收入的阻力；全年平均貸款略有下降，其中商業和信用卡貸款在年初緩慢增長後，下半年略有增長。

Reinvestment of lower-yielding securities runoff into higher-yielding assets, which would also modestly extend the duration of the investment portfolio, further attrition in consumer banking and lending deposits as well as continued mix shift from lower yielding products to higher yielding. Deposits in our other deposit gathering businesses are expected to be relatively stable and market funding replaces the client consumer deposits as needed.

將低收益證券再投資於高收益資產，這也將適度延長投資組合的期限，進一步減少消費銀行業務和貸款存款，以及持續從低收益產品轉向高收益產品的組合。其他吸收存款業務的存款預計將相對穩定，市場資金將根據需要替代客戶消費存款。

We currently expect that net interest income will trough towards the end of this year. As we've done in prior years, we are also assuming the asset capital remain in place throughout the year. Ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earned in 2024 will depend on a variety of factors, which -- many of which are uncertain, including the absolute level of rates, the shape of the yield curve, deposit balances, mix and pricing and loan demand.

我們目前預計淨利息收入將在今年底觸底。正如我們前幾年所做的那樣，我們也假設資產資本全年保持不變。最終，我們在 2024 年賺取的淨利息收入將取決於多種因素，其中許多因素是不確定的，包括利率的絕對水準、收益率曲線的形狀、存款餘額、結構和定價以及貸款需求。

Turning to our 2024 expense expectations on Slide 19. We started our focus on efficiency initiatives 3 years ago, and we've successfully delivered on our commitment of approximately $10 billion of gross expenses. Through our efficiency initiatives, we have reduced head count every quarter since third quarter of 2020 and head count is down 16% since the end of 2020.

轉向幻燈片 19 上的 2024 年支出預期。我們從 3 年前開始關注效率舉措，並成功兌現了約 100 億美元總支出的承諾。透過我們的效率舉措，自 2020 年第三季以來，我們每季都減少了員工人數，自 2020 年底以來，員工人數減少了 16%。

Looking at our expectations for this year and following the waterfall on the slide from left to right, we reported $55.6 billion of noninterest expense in 2023, which included the $1.9 billion FDIC special assessment. Excluding this item, expenses would have been $53.6 billion which we believe is a good starting point for discussion of 2024 expenses.

看看我們對今年的預期，沿著從左到右的瀑布瀑布圖，我們報告 2023 年非利息支出為 556 億美元，其中包括 19 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估。排除此項，支出將為 536 億美元，我們認為這是討論 2024 年支出的良好起點。

Looking at the next bar, we expect severance expense to be approximately $1.3 billion lower driven by the $969 million expense we took in the fourth quarter for planned actions. We expect expenses to increase by at least $300 million due to higher revenue-related expense driven by Wealth and Investment Management. Revenue-related expenses will ultimately be a function of activity in market levels and therefore, could be higher or lower than this estimate. At this point, we expect all other expenses to be flat, though there are significant efficiencies and increased investments included in this expectation.

看看下一個長條圖，我們預計遣散費將減少約 13 億美元，這是由於我們在第四季度為計劃行動支付了 9.69 億美元的費用。由於財富和投資管理推動的收入相關費用增加，我們預計費用將增加至少 3 億美元。與收入相關的支出最終將取決於市場水準的活動，因此可能高於或低於此估計。目前，我們預計所有其他費用將持平，儘管這一預期包括顯著的效率提高和投資增加。

We expect approximately $2.7 billion of gross expense reductions in 2024 due to the efficiency initiatives. We highlighted in the slides some of the areas where we anticipate additional savings and continue to believe we have more opportunities beyond 2024. Similar to prior years, the resources needed to address our risk and control work are separate from our efficiency initiatives and we will continue to make significant investments in our risk and control infrastructure.

由於效率舉措，我們預計 2024 年總費用將減少約 27 億美元。我們在幻燈片中強調了我們預計會進一步節省費用的一些領域，並繼續相信我們在2024 年之後將有更多機會。與前幾年類似，解決我們的風險和控制工作所需的資源與我們的效率計劃是分開的，我們將繼續對我們的風險和控制基礎設施進行重大投資。

While we remain focused on executing on our efficiency initiatives, we're also continuing to invest, and we expect approximately $1.1 billion of incremental technology and equipment expense, reflecting higher costs related to the amortization of investment in prior years as well as new investments planned for 2024. We also expect merit increases of approximately $700 million, which are primarily awarded to employees with lower salaries. We highlight some of the other areas where we plan to invest on the next slide.

在我們繼續專注於執行效率舉措的同時，我們還將繼續投資，我們預計將增加約 11 億美元的技術和設備費用，反映出與前幾年投資攤銷以及計劃的新投資相關的更高成本到2024 年，我們也預期績效增加約7 億美元，主要獎勵給薪資較低的員工。我們在下一張投影片中重點介紹了我們計劃投資的其他一些領域。

Our 2024 expense outlook includes ongoing business-related operating losses of approximately $1.3 billion, similar to the level we had in 2023. As previously disclosed, we have outstanding litigation, regulatory and customer remediation matters that could impact operating losses.

我們對 2024 年費用展望包括約 13 億美元的持續業務相關營運虧損，與 2023 年的水平相似。正如先前披露的，我們有未決的訴訟、監管和客戶補救事宜，可能會影響營運虧損。

So putting this all together, we expect 2024 noninterest expense to be approximately $52.6 billion. It's important to note that while we've made substantial progress executing on our efficiency initiatives, as Charlie highlighted, we still have a significant opportunity to get more efficient across the company.

因此，將所有這些加在一起，我們預計 2024 年非利息支出約為 526 億美元。值得注意的是，正如查理所強調的那樣，雖然我們在執行效率計劃方面取得了實質進展，但我們仍然有很大的機會提高整個公司的效率。

Given how critical it is to continue to invest in our business, on Slide 20, we provide some examples of our areas of focus for 2024. Let me highlight a few. Building the right risk and control infrastructure remains our top priority, and we will continue to invest in this important work. Charlie discussed many of the technology investments we've already made to transform how we serve both our consumer and commercial customers, and we plan to continue to invest in these areas this year throughout our businesses.

鑑於繼續投資我們的業務的重要性，在投影片 20 上，我們提供了 2024 年重點領域的一些範例。讓我重點介紹幾個。建立正確的風險和控制基礎設施仍然是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續投資這項重要工作。查理討論了我們已經進行的許多技術投資，這些投資旨在改變我們為消費者和商業客戶提供服務的方式，我們計劃今年在整個業務中繼續在這些領域進行投資。

We are planning to hire more bankers and advisers to grow our Wells Fargo Premier offering to our affluent clients. We plan to launch a new travel-oriented credit card as part of our Autograph suite of products as well as a new small business credit card this year. To better serve our commercial clients, we plan to continue to hire within investment banking and commercial banking to support priority sectors and products to help drive growth.

我們計劃聘請更多銀行家和顧問，以擴大我們為富裕客戶提供的富國銀行優質服務。我們計劃今年推出一款新的旅行信用卡，作為我們 Autograph 產品套件的一部分，以及一款新的小型企業信用卡。為了更好地服務我們的商業客戶，我們計劃繼續在投資銀行和商業銀行內部招募人員來支援優先產業和產品，以幫助推動成長。

Now let me conclude with Slide 21, where we will discuss return on tangible common equity. When we first discussed our path to improving returns on the fourth quarter 2020 earnings call, we had an 8% ROTCE. Since then, we have taken multiple actions to improve our returns, including executing on our efficiency initiatives, investing in our businesses to help drive growth and returning excess capital to shareholders, including increasing our common stock dividend from $0.10 to $0.35 per share and repurchasing $32 billion of common stock. These actions helped to improve our ROTCE. Our reported ROTCE in the fourth quarter was 9%, but as we highlight in the table, our ROTCE was impacted by a number of notable items.

現在讓我以投影片 21 結束，我們將在其中討論有形普通股的回報。當我們在 2020 年第四季財報電話會議上首次討論提高回報的途徑時，我們的 ROTCE 為 8%。從那時起，我們採取了多項行動來提高回報，包括執行我們的效率計劃、投資我們的業務以幫助推動增長以及向股東返還多餘資本，包括將我們的普通股股息從每股0.10 美元增加到0.35 美元，回購32 美元億股普通股。這些行動有助於提高我們的 ROTCE。我們報告的第四季度的 ROTCE 為 9%，但正如我們在表中所強調的那樣，我們的 ROTCE 受到許多值得注意的項目的影響。

Our 2023 returns also reflected the benefit of rising rates, which helped to drive strong net interest income growth. And as I've already highlighted, we expect net interest income to decline this year. We still believe we have an achievable path to a sustainable 15% ROTCE over the medium term as we continue to make progress on transforming the company. There are several key factors that support our belief. Our ability to return excess capital, we currently have a significant amount of excess capital, 2.5 percentage points above our regulatory minimum buffers for CET1. And as I already highlighted, we expect to increase our share repurchases this year.

我們 2023 年的回報也反映了利率上升的好處，這有助於推動淨利息收入的強勁成長。正如我已經強調的那樣，我們預計今年淨利息收入將下降。我們仍然相信，隨著我們在公司轉型方面繼續取得進展，我們有一條可實現的道路，在中期內實現可持續的 15% ROTCE。有幾個關鍵因素支持我們的信念。我們有能力回饋超額資本，目前我們擁有大量超額資本，比 CET1 監管最低緩衝高出 2.5 個百分點。正如我已經強調的那樣，我們預計今年將增加股票回購。

I highlighted the progress we've already made to reposition our home lending business, including reducing the amount of third-party mortgage loan service by 18% from a year ago. As we continue to streamline this business, we expect the profitability to improve.

我強調了我們在重新定位房屋貸款業務方面已經取得的進展，包括將第三方抵押貸款服務金額比一年前減少了 18%。隨著我們繼續精簡這項業務，我們預計獲利能力將會提高。

We've grown our credit card business with balances up 40% since the end of 2021 and new accounts 25% higher than fourth quarter of 2021. However, the current profitability of this business has been impacted by acquisition costs and allowance builds and we expect profitability to improve as the portfolio matures.

自2021 年底以來，我們的信用卡業務不斷增長，餘額增長了40%，新帳戶數比2021 年第四季度增長了25%。然而，該業務當前的盈利能力受到收購成本和津貼增加的影響，我們預計隨著投資組合的成熟，獲利能力將提高。

Finally, we've made significant investments in the last few years across our franchise to better serve our customers and help drive growth. We expect the revenue growth that these investments should generate in businesses like corporate investment banking and wealth and investment management will help fund additional investments. So we have many drivers to close the gap and improve returns.

最後，我們在過去幾年中對我們的特許經營權進行了大量投資，以更好地服務我們的客戶並幫助推動成長。我們預計這些投資在企業投資銀行、財富和投資管理等業務中產生的收入成長將有助於為額外的投資提供資金。因此，我們有許多驅動因素來縮小差距並提高回報。

In summary, our results in 2023 demonstrated our commitment to improving our financial performance. We grew revenue, reduced expenses, increased capital returns to shareholders and maintained our strong capital position.

總之，我們 2023 年的表現證明了我們對改善財務表現的承諾。我們增加了收入，減少了開支，增加了股東的資本回報，並維持了強勁的資本狀況。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question of the day will come from Stephen Chubak of Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Stephen Chubak。

Mike, I was -- appreciate all the NII detail. Just given all the different puts and takes that you cited, I was hoping you could provide some context as to how you're thinking about the exit rate for NII in '24 per the guidance. Just given expectations for the Street that NII should inflect positively in '25, just want to get a sense as to how you're thinking about where NII could potentially trough or stabilize based on the forward curve..

麥克，我非常欣賞 NII 的所有細節。考慮到您引用的所有不同的看跌期權和看跌期權，我希望您能夠提供一些背景信息，說明您如何考慮根據指南 24 年 NII 的退出率。剛剛給出了對 NII 應該在 25 年積極變化的華爾街預期，只是想了解一下您如何考慮基於遠期曲線的 NII 可能觸底或穩定的位置。

Yes. No, appreciate the question. When you -- based on what we gave you, Steve, I think we said on the page and in my remarks that we do expect it to start to inflect and trough as we get towards the end of the year. Exactly when that happens, I think we'll sort of see. We're not going to get too specific there, but we do expect that you would start to see a trough as we get to the end of the year and into 2025.

是的。不，感謝這個問題。當你——根據我們給你的信息，史蒂夫，我想我們在頁面上和我的評論中說過，我們確實預計隨著年底的到來，它會開始出現拐點和低谷。確切地說，當這種情況發生時，我想我們會看到的。我們不會對此說得太具體，但我們確實預計，隨著年底和 2025 年的到來，您將開始看到一個低谷。

Very helpful. And then just for my follow-up just on expenses. The core expense guidance shows another net reduction in '24. You noted that you're making investments, but those will be offset by efficiency savings. And just want to get a sense as to how long you can sustain that, why this core expense trajectory continue to fund investments with future efficiencies.

很有幫助。然後只是為了我的後續費用。核心費用指導顯示 24 年再次淨減少。您指出您正在進行投資，但這些投資將被效率節省所抵消。只是想了解您可以維持這種情況多久，為什麼這種核心支出軌跡繼續為具有未來效率的投資提供資金。

Yes. I think when we think about the efficiency journey that we're on, I think Charlie and I've been both pretty clear consistently now that there's more to do. And 2024 is just another year in the journey, right? And we've got more to do post that to continue to drive efficiency across the place. Where we're going to net out on a year-to-year basis in terms of the net spend, I'm not going to try to predict.

是的。我認為，當我們思考我們正在進行的效率之旅時，我認為查理和我都非常清楚，現在還有更多工作要做。 2024 年只是旅程中的另一年，對嗎？我們還有更多工作要做，以繼續提高整個地方的效率。我不會嘗試預測我們將逐年淨支出的情況。

But as you look across the company, I think we're just continuing to methodically make progress to drive automation, efficiency, reduce third-party spend, reduce our real estate footprint across all of the different dimensions. And I think we think we've got more to do, and that will continue into 2025 and beyond.

但當你縱觀整個公司時，我認為我們只是繼續有條不紊地取得進展，以推動自動化、提高效率、減少第三方支出、減少所有不同維度的房地產足跡。我認為我們還有更多工作要做，而且這種情況將持續到 2025 年及以後。

The next question will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題將來自自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納。

Mike, I wanted to ask about the fee income drivers for this year. Charlie mentioned, obviously, some examples of progress that you've gotten leverage on investments. And then obviously, you've got cyclical headwinds and tailwinds. So maybe just could you walk through some of the bigger fee income drivers and give your sense of puts and takes and how you're feeling this year going into the fee revenue outlook?

麥克，我想問今年的費用收入驅動因素。查理顯然提到了一些在投資方面取得進展的例子。顯然，你會遇到週期性的逆風和順風。那麼，也許您可以介紹一些較大的費用收入驅動因素，並給出您的看跌期權和期權，以及您今年對費用收入前景的感受如何？

Yes, sure. Thanks, John. When you look at the components there, I mean, the largest one is going to be our advisory fees in the Wealth and Investment Management business and market levels are higher than they were this time last year. And so if that holds or gets better as many people predicting that should be constructive for that fee. When you start looking at the other line items like trading, the market's got to cooperate. We're happy with the progress we've been making across the different businesses there, but the market is going to have to cooperate as well for that to continue.

是的，當然。謝謝，約翰。當你查看其中的組成部分時，我的意思是，最大的一個將是我們在財富和投資管理業務中的諮詢費用，並且市場水平高於去年同期。因此，如果這種情況保持或像許多人預測的那樣變得更好，那麼對於這筆費用來說應該是有建設性的。當你開始關注交易等其他項目時，市場必須配合。我們對我們在不同業務領域的進展感到滿意，但市場也必須合作才能繼續下去。

We had a number of impairments across our venture capital portfolio this year. At some point, that should start to peter out, and we'll see that inflect. And then the other fee line should be pretty predictable for the most part as you sort of look forward.

今年我們的創投組合出現了一些減損。在某些時候，這種情況應該會開始逐漸消失，我們會看到這種改變。然後，當你展望未來時，其他費用線在很大程度上應該是可以預測的。

Okay. And just a follow-up on the net interest income idea of bottoming towards the end of the year, theoretically, what would be the drivers of that kind of bottoming? Do you have fixed asset reprice that helps? Or is it kind of assumed new asset generation? Maybe you could just wrap that into some thoughts about what would drive that inflection in the context of any update on rate sensitivity as well.

好的。這只是淨利息收入年底觸底想法的後續，理論上，這種觸底的驅動因素是什麼？您是否有幫助的固定資產重新定價？還是這是一種假定的新資產生成？也許您可以將其納入一些想法中，即在利率敏感性更新的背景下，什麼會推動這種變化。

Yes, sure. Maybe I'll start with the latter part first. And as you can see in the data we gave in the presentation, we're anchoring it to what was in the forward curve as of day last week, which is not that dissimilar to what you have today. And I think when you look at sensitivity to that, our interest rate sensitivity disclosures in this case are a pretty good estimate for how to think about whether rates are a little bit higher or a little bit lower than what's in that forward curve.

是的，當然。也許我會先從後一部分開始。正如您在演示中提供的數據中所看到的，我們將其錨定為截至上週的遠期曲線，這與您今天的數據沒有什麼不同。我認為，當你考慮對此的敏感性時，我們在這種情況下的利率敏感性披露對於如何考慮利率是否比遠期曲線中的利率略高或略低是一個很好的估計。

And if you look at where we were at the end of the third quarter, we were still modestly asset sensitive. That will still be the case at the end of the fourth quarter. It will come down a little bit from where it was, but it will still be asset sensitive. But it's -- and if you look at the forward curve, I think on average, rates are coming down something like 50 basis points. And so it is pretty linear math when you look at the sensitivities that we included in the Q.

如果你看看我們在第三季末的情況，你會發現我們仍然對資產保持適度的敏感度。到第四季末仍將如此。它會比原來的水平有所下降，但仍然對資產敏感。但如果你看一下遠期曲線，我認為平均利率會下降 50 個基點左右。因此，當您查看我們包含在 Q 中的敏感度時，這是非常線性的數學。

When you look at the underlying assumptions as you go into the year, we've got loan growth being pretty muted in the beginning part of the year. That will start -- hopefully, start to pick up as we get later in the year, so that will be a driver of it. As you get towards the end of the year, you'll have some stabilization -- we're expecting stabilization of pretty stable deposits across the commercial and the wealth management businesses. At some point, the consumer deposits will also stabilize and the mix will stabilize as well.

當你審視今年的基本假設時，你會發現今年年初的貸款成長相當緩慢。這將開始——希望在今年晚些時候開始回升，這樣這將成為它的驅動力。隨著年底的臨近，將會出現一些穩定性——我們預計商業和財富管理業務的存款將保持穩定。在某個時候，消費者存款也將穩定，結構也將穩定。

You've got continued asset repricing that happens in there as well. So it's a little bit of all of it that brings you to the point at which it starts to trough and inflect. But again, exactly when that's going to happen, we're going to -- we'll sort of leave -- we'll leave to later in the year, but we do expect that, that will happen as we get closer to the end of the year.

那裡也會發生持續的資產重新定價。所以，正是這一切的一點點讓你到達了開始低谷和轉折點的地步。但同樣，確切地說，當這種情況發生時，我們將——我們將在今年晚些時候離開——我們將在今年晚些時候離開，但我們確實預計，當我們接近最終目標時，這就會發生。年底。

The next question will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題將由 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 提出。

I'm sorry if I'm going to stay on theme, but just as that -- as you start to the beginning of the year and deposit price continues to flow through, and the mix continues to change and as far as the DDAs, I'm wondering if you could just help us understand how do you expect that trajectory? DDAs definitely still outflowing which is expected. But in terms of mix and then just how you expect the deposit rate of change or the downside beta to act through the cycle, can you help us understand that, Mike?

如果我要停留在主題上，我很抱歉，但正如你開始的那樣 - 當你開始到今年年初，存款價格繼續流動，並且組合繼續變化，就 DDA 而言，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您對此軌跡有何期望？ DDA 肯定仍在流出，這是預料之中的。但就混合而言，以及您預期存款利率變化或下行貝塔在整個週期中的表現，您能幫助我們理解這一點嗎，麥克？

Sure. When you look at what's happening just on deposits, the trend that we've been seeing now on the mix shift has been pretty consistent for the last 2 or 3 quarters at least. And so at some point, that will moderate more, but it's been pretty consistent. And so that's probably a decent assumption as you sort of go into the first part of the year at least. .

當然。當你看看存款方面發生的情況時，我們現在看到的混合轉變趨勢至少在過去兩三個季度相當一致。因此，在某些時候，這種情況會更加緩和，但一直相當穩定。因此，至少在今年上半年，這可能是個不錯的假設。 。

When you start looking at deposit pricing kind of later in the year as rates start to move, on the commercial side, rates and betas have been competitive now and pretty high for a while, and they'll be just as rate sensitive on the way back down. That's part of the bargain on the commercial side is you get good competitive betas on the way up and you also get them on the way down.

當你在今年稍後開始考慮存款定價時，隨著利率開始變化，在商業方面，利率和貝塔係數現在已經具有競爭力，並且在一段時間內相當高，而且它們將同樣對利率敏感退後，退下。這是商業方面討價還價的一部分，你可以在上升的過程中獲得良好的競爭性貝塔值，也可以在下降的過程中獲得它們。

On the consumer side, there's been less movement on standard pricing across many of the products. But you've had the introduction of CDs and promo rates and all that stuff will start to move down pretty quickly as the expectation for rates do as well.

在消費者方面，許多產品的標準定價變動較小。但隨著 CD 和促銷利率的推出，所有這些東西都將開始快速下降，就像對利率的預期一樣。

Okay. So if I think about that then, would you imply that like the first quarter starting point, we see a little bit more of an NII step down. And then as you get to that hopeful stabilization in the back half, like just because of how that moves?

好的。因此，如果我考慮一下，您是否會暗示，就像第一季的起點一樣，我們會看到 NII 有所下降。然後當你在後半場達到充滿希望的穩定時，就像僅僅因為它的移動方式一樣？

Well, I think based on what we gave you, right, so we are expecting a full year NII to be down, 7% to 9%, hopefully. And if it starts to stabilize as you get to the end of the year then that implies a step-down in the beginning of the year. Exactly, we're not going to give you a number by quarter, but you should expect a step down as you go in the beginning part of the year.

嗯，我認為根據我們給您的信息，我們預計全年 NII 將會下降，希望下降 7% 到 9%。如果到年底時它開始穩定，那麼這意味著年初會出現下降。確切地說，我們不會按季度向您提供數字，但您應該預計在今年年初會出現下降。

The next question will come from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

I was hoping you might be able to spend just another moment on the longer-term cost opportunity. I guess I'm just curious if there's a point where some of the investment spending pressures ease and there might still be an opportunity for costs to decline more visibly on an underlying basis? Or by contrast, is this level of investment spending, is that something that will just be sort of pretty consistent year in and year out?

我希望您能夠再花一點時間考慮長期成本機會。我想我只是好奇是否到了某個時候，部分投資支出壓力會有所緩解，並且成本可能仍有機會在根本上更明顯地下降？或者相較之下，這種投資支出水準是否會年復一年地保持一致？

Yes. Scott, it really is going to depend. I will highlight one thing though. In the slides that we have there, we -- I noted that part of what's driving the investment spend this year is the tech and equipment line moving up. And so that won't continue to move up at that pace forever, and so that does start to moderate as you go out into the future. But as you look at the other investments we're making, we're going to try to be very thoughtful about looking at the opportunities that we have across each of the businesses, thinking about short, medium, long-term results and making sure that we're sort of calibrating all that, right? But I would expect us to continue to make investments in each of the businesses. And I think that, ultimately, that's what's going to drive great returns and better performance over time.

是的。斯科特，這確實要看情況。不過我要強調一件事。在我們在那裡的幻燈片中，我注意到，推動今年投資支出的部分原因是技術和設備線的發展。因此，這種速度不會永遠繼續以這種速度成長，而且隨著你走向未來，這種速度確實會開始放緩。但是，當你看到我們正在進行的其他投資時，我們將盡力深思熟慮地考慮我們在每項業務中擁有的機會，考慮短期、中期、長期結果，並確保我們正在校準所有這些，對吧？但我希望我們能夠繼續對每項業務進行投資。我認為，隨著時間的推移，這最終將帶來豐厚的回報和更好的業績。

Perfect. And then maybe just a question on credit. You all have been very proactive in dealing with sort of the office CRE situation. Just curious to hear how you're -- what your thoughts are and how the cycle that asset class sort of plays out from here? Does it just remain a long slog, or is there perhaps a point where your conservatism has sort of gotten ahead of issues and you might actually be able to relieve a bit of that really healthy double-digit reserve.

完美的。然後也許只是一個關於信用的問題。你們都非常積極主動地處理辦公室 CRE 的情況。只是想知道您的感受如何——您的想法是什麼以及資產類別的周期如何從這裡開始？這是否仍然是一個漫長的過程，或者是否有一個點，你的保守主義已經超越了問題，你實際上可能能夠減輕一些真正健康的兩位數儲備。

Yes. Look -- as we look at the reserve, and then I'll come back to the broader point there. At some point, we'll start using the reserve more fully and then that allowance coverage ratio will come down, no doubt. I mean that's the way it should work when you think about CECL and the way the accounting should work. I think in terms of your broader point, it's a long movie. We're still -- we're not -- we're past the opening credits, but we're still in the beginning of the movie. And so it's going to take some time for this to play out. .

是的。看看——當我們看看保護區時，然後我會回到更廣泛的觀點。在某個時候，我們將開始更充分地使用儲備金，然後毫無疑問，準備金覆蓋率將會下降。我的意思是，當你考慮 CECL 和會計的工作方式時，這就是它應該工作的方式。我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，這是一部很長的電影。我們仍然——我們沒有——我們已經過了片頭，但我們仍然處於電影的開頭。因此，這需要一些時間才能發揮作用。 。

And as I noted, it will be somewhat of an uneven and episodic sort of nature to the charge-offs and as you work through this because every property has a different time line in terms of events that it needs to sort of work through. So I do think that we've got a while for this to play out through the system.

正如我所指出的，沖銷在某種程度上是一種不平衡和偶發性的性質，當你處理這個問題時，因為每個財產在需要處理的事件方面都有不同的時間表。所以我確實認為我們還有一段時間來讓這個系統發揮作用。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉。

I guess maybe just to -- thanks for all the details on NII expenses and the ROTCE. I guess if you were to -- and it's not lost upon anyone with regards to the investments you've made in the franchise. But when you look at the slide, fourth quarter '20, ROTCE, 8%; 3 years fast forward, it's gone from 8% to 9%. Assuming there's no real perfect world to operate a bank, from a shareholder perspective, quickly do you think we can get from 9% to 15%. You've given us the moving pieces, but I'm just wondering, maybe, Charlie, Mike, how do you think about is it a 2-year slog? Is it longer than that? I love some perspective there.

我想也許只是為了 - 感謝您提供有關 NII 費用和 ROTCE 的所有詳細資訊。我想如果你願意的話——對於你在特許經營權上所做的投資來說，任何人都不會失去任何機會。但當你看投影片時，20 年第四季度，ROTCE 為 8%；三年快進，這個比例從 8% 上升到 9%。假設不存在真正完美的銀行營運環境，從股東的角度來看，您認為我們可以很快從 9% 提高到 15%。你們給了我們一些感人的片段，但我只是想知道，也許，查理，麥克，你們認為這是一個兩年的艱苦努力嗎？有比那更長的嗎？我喜歡那裡的一些觀點。

Yes. And I think -- maybe I'll start and Charlie can chime in. So I think when you look at that page, Ebrahim, I think you really have to look at the impact of the special assessment that's in the results, right? And so that's 4 percentage points of ROTCE. So think of the underlying operating performance from a returns perspective, more closer to that 13% range. And so there has been quite a bit of progress since Q4 '20. And then as you sort of look forward, we highlighted some of the key drivers on -- provided in my commentary. Look, we've got a lot of excess capital despite whatever happens with Basel III. And so we've got room to continue to return that to shareholders. .

是的。我想——也許我會開始，查理可以插話。所以我想，當你看那個頁面時，易卜拉欣，我認為你真的必須看看結果中特別評估的影響，對嗎？這就是 ROTCE 的 4 個百分點。因此，從回報角度考慮基本營運績效，更接近 13% 的範圍。自 20 年第四季以來，已經取得了相當大的進展。然後，當您展望未來時，我們強調了我的評論中提供的一些關鍵驅動因素。看，無論巴塞爾協議 III 發生什麼，我們都有大量過剩資本。因此，我們有空間繼續向股東回報。 。

We are in the middle of repositioning the home lending business, which will drive not only good, better returns in that business, but improvement across the franchise. We've got the card business, which we're seeing very good performance in as we've launched our new products over the last couple of years and as that matures will be a meaningful contributor.

我們正在重新定位房屋貸款業務，這不僅會帶來該業務良好、更好的回報，而且會改善整個特許經營業務。我們擁有信用卡業務，隨著我們在過去幾年推出新產品，我們看到了非常好的表現，隨著該業務的成熟，我們將做出有意義的貢獻。

And then we've got to continue to get the benefit of all the other investments that we're making. And so we feel like we've made a lot of good progress since the 2020. And then we've got really clear plans to continue to see better performance.

然後我們必須繼續從我們正在進行的所有其他投資中獲益。所以我們覺得自 2020 年以來我們已經取得了很多良好的進展。然後我們有非常明確的計劃來繼續看到更好的表現。

And I'll just add a little bit to it and to be a little bit repetitive. When you look at that slide, again, those are reported numbers. And so the way we think about it is the earnings power of the company today on an ROTCE basis, you got to make your own assumptions for what's in and out and what normalized net interest income is because we've been clear that we've been over-earning. But when you look at -- when you add back these expenses like FDIC, which relate to the past in this quarter and aren't going to go forward, our ROTCE is up 50% from where it was. So that is a significant change.

我將添加一點內容並進行一些重複。當您再次查看該投影片時，這些都是報告的數字。因此，我們考慮的方式是公司今天在 ROTCE 基礎上的盈利能力，你必須對進出的內容以及標準化淨利息收入做出自己的假設，因為我們已經清楚地知道我們已經超額賺到了。但是，當您將 FDIC 等費用加回來時，這些費用與本季的過去相關且不會繼續增加，我們的 ROTCE 比原來增加了 50%。所以這是一個重大的改變。

On top of that, when we look at the actions, as Mike said, that we've taken in the home lending business, when we see the trajectory of growth that we're seeing in the card business, just as those things mature, let alone being able to deploy the excess capital we have. Those are things that are in process. You don't have to really do anything more other than let them mature and let them play out. That is continued movement towards the 15% ROTCE. And then the last thing I'd say is just away from those things.

最重要的是，正如麥克所說，當我們看到我們在房屋貸款業務中採取的行動時，當我們看到信用卡業務的成長軌跡時，正如這些事情正在成熟一樣，更不用說能夠部署我們擁有的多餘資本了。這些都是正在進行中的事情。除了讓他們成熟並讓他們發揮出來之外，你不需要做任何其他事情。這是朝著 15% ROTCE 的持續發展。然後我要說的最後一件事就是遠離這些事情。

When we got here, these businesses were not on trajectories to grow. The card business wasn't growing, the corporate investment bank wasn't growing. You can go through them one by one. And so as we've talked about making investments offsetting some of these efficiencies that we've seen and making determinations on whether or not they're paying off, those things that we're seeing, these increases in share we're pretty confident that they are going to continue to drive improved results over time.

當我們到達這裡時，這些企業還沒有走上成長的軌道。卡業務沒有成長，企業投資銀行也沒有成長。您可以一一瀏覽。因此，當我們討論進行投資來抵消我們所看到的一些效率並確定它們是否得到回報時，我們所看到的這些事情以及份額的增加我們非常有信心隨著時間的推移，他們將繼續推動改善結果。

And so as I said in my remarks, we're clearly susceptible to the market environment, both for interest rates and the overall economic environment in the shorter term, but we feel both really good about the progress that we've made. We feel really good about what the path we see going forward is, recognizing that there's still a lot more that we have to do.

正如我在演講中所說，我們顯然很容易受到市場環境的影響，無論是利率還是短期的整體經濟環境，但我們都對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們對未來的道路感到非常滿意，並認識到我們還有很多事情要做。

Got it. That was terrific. And just one quick follow-up, Mike, on CRE, I'm assuming you had some assets moved through the -- of the balance sheet. I'm just wondering, today relative to a year ago, do you have better visibility on where the clearing price is for some of these nonperforming CRE or challenged CRE loans? And are you seeing any pressure spreading beyond CRE office to other parts of the portfolio in any meaningful way?

知道了。那太棒了。麥克，關於 CRE，我想快速跟進一下，我假設您有一些資產透過資產負債表進行了轉移。我只是想知道，與一年前相比，今天您是否能更好地了解其中一些不良 CRE 或有問題的 CRE 貸款的清算價格？您是否發現任何壓力以任何有意義的方式從 CRE 辦公室蔓延到投資組合的其他部分？

Yes. I mean, look, as time goes by, we get better and better information around where things are going to play out. But it is still somewhat specific to the asset. And so I wouldn't try to generalize yet until we see more transactions and more data points. When you look at the broader CRE market, at least in our portfolio, we are not seeing the stress spread to other parts of it.

是的。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們會得到越來越多關於事情將如何發展的資訊。但它仍然對資產有一定的特殊性。因此，在我們看到更多交易和更多數據點之前，我不會嘗試進行概括。當你觀察更廣泛的商業房地產市場時，至少在我們的投資組合中，我們沒有看到壓力蔓延到它的其他部分。

The next question will come from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian 提出。

My first question is a follow-up to Ebrahim's line of questioning on ROTCE. Charlie, Mike's, right, obviously, you have plenty of excess capital. As we think about your outlook for not much loan growth in 2024, and obviously, there's the asset cap still in place. How should we think about what you're looking for as guidepost to potentially accelerate that buyback in the $2.4 billion level. Is it as far out as the Basel III Endgame finalization or would you wait for more clarity in near term on the DFAST results in June?

我的第一個問題是 Ebrahim 在 ROTCE 上提問的後續問題。查理，麥克，對，顯然，你們有大量的多餘資本。當我們考慮 2024 年貸款成長不大的前景時，顯然資產上限仍然存在。我們應該如何考慮您正在尋找的路標，以加速 24 億美元水準的回購。距離巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰最終敲定還有多久，還是您會等待近期 6 月份 DFAST 結果的進一步明確？

It's Mike. I'll take a shot at that, Erika. When you look at our full year numbers, I tried to highlight in my comments that we do expect that our repurchases will be higher than what we did in 2023. The exact timing and pace, I'm not going to get into. But -- and then we'll look at all of -- as we do every quarter, we look at all of the different risks that could be out there, including thinking about where CCAR or the stress test will come out. And from a Basel III perspective, we're in really good shape. As we said last quarter, we're already above where we need to be from a -- if it was fully implemented as is, and we're hopeful that, that won't be the case. .

是麥克。我會嘗試一下，艾莉卡。當你查看我們的全年數據時，我試圖在評論中強調，我們確實預計我們的回購量將高於 2023 年的水平。具體的時間和節奏，我不會透露。但是，然後我們會像每個季度一樣，審視所有可能存在的不同風險，包括考慮 CCAR 或壓力測試的結果。從巴塞爾協議 III 的角度來看，我們的狀況非常好。正如我們上個季度所說，如果按原樣完全實施，我們已經超出了我們需要的水平，我們希望情況不會如此。 。

And so -- and we're going to generate more capital as we go through the year. And so we've got -- as I said, we've got plenty of excess capital. We plan to buy back more stock than we did in 2023, and we'll leave the exact timing piece to future calls.

因此，我們將在這一年中產生更多的資本。因此，正如我所說，我們有大量的過剩資本。我們計劃回購比 2023 年更多的股票，具體時間安排將留待未來電話會議決定。

And my follow-up question is another one on NII. I did notice that your short-term borrowings went up a lot in 2023. And just looking at the asset side, it seemed like it was funding that increased in liquidity to $204 billion in cash at the Fed at period end. And I'm wondering as we're thinking about your liability mix in 2024 and then I think your average balance sheet size was $1.91 trillion at the end of the year. I'm just wondering, if we should expect the balance sheet to shrink because you may not need all those short-term borrowings? Or is there a reason why you feel like you want to hold that much liquidity at the site at this time?

我的後續問題是關於 NII 的另一個問題。我確實注意到，你們的短期借款在 2023 年增加了很多。僅從資產方面來看，似乎是資金導致了聯準會的流動性在期末增加到了 2,040 億美元現金。我想知道，我們正在考慮您 2024 年的負債組合，然後我認為您年底的平均資產負債表規模為 1.91 兆美元。我只是想知道，我們是否應該預期資產負債表會收縮，因為您可能不需要所有這些短期借款？或者您有理由覺得此時想在該網站持有這麼多流動性？

Well, it's certainly possible. The balance sheet will get smaller throughout the year. I think that will just be a function of what we ultimately see on loan growth, how much we end up deploying into securities as we go through the year. And where it makes sense, we will let the balance sheet just ebb and flow back down. And I think that's the way we're sort of thinking about it now. And I think at this point, there's not a lot of cost to leaving at the Fed, given where IRB is. And so that will change as rates start to come down, and we'll calibrate the overall size based on what we think the opportunity is.

嗯，這當然有可能。資產負債表全年都會縮小。我認為這將取決於我們最終看到的貸款成長情況，以及我們在這一年中最終部署到證券上的金額。在合理的情況下，我們將讓資產負債表不斷波動並回流。我認為這就是我們現在思考這個問題的方式。我認為，考慮到 IRB 的現狀，目前離開聯準會並沒有太多成本。因此，隨著利率開始下降，情況將會發生變化，我們將根據我們認為的機會來調整整體規模。

The next question will come from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the NII outlook of down 7% to 9%, can you maybe help us think about the expected net interest margin trajectory through the year? How we should think about that in the context of what you're expecting in terms of earning asset yields and the dynamic on funding costs?

關於 NII 下降 7% 至 9% 的前景，您能否幫助我們思考全年的預期淨利差軌跡？在您對獲利資產收益率和融資成本動態的預期的背景下，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Well, we don't -- we're not going to try to predict exactly where the NIM is going to go quarter by quarter. But I think as you would guess, right, assuming the balance sheets that are relatively stable size as NII starts to come down, the NIM will compress, right? And there'll be tailwinds and headwinds related. As assets -- as the securities portfolio reprices, that will be a tailwind. As you start to see variable rate loans come down -- as rates come down, that will be a headwind. And so I think most of it should be relatively simple to kind of estimate as you sort of plug the assumptions into your model. But there's no sort of magic to sort of to it, but you would expect NIM to continue to come down as the balance sheet stays stable and NII comes down.

好吧，我們不會——我們不會嘗試準確預測 NIM 每個季度的走向。但我認為正如你所猜測的那樣，假設隨著NII開始下降，資產負債表的規模相對穩定，NIM將會壓縮，對吧？並且會有相關的順風和逆風。作為資產—隨著證券投資組合重新定價，這將是一股順風。當你開始看到可變利率貸款下降時——隨著利率下降，這將是一個阻力。因此，我認為當您將假設插入模型時，大部分估計應該相對簡單。但這並沒有什麼神奇之處，但隨著資產負債表保持穩定和NII下降，你會期望NIM繼續下降。

Okay. All right. And then separately on commercial real estate. Can you maybe give us a little more color in terms of where you saw the stress, what types of office properties? And what type of marks to the underlying assets are you seeing as you're reappraising the properties? And does that give you -- I guess maybe just talk about the level of confidence you have in the updated 7.9% office reserve at this level?

好的。好的。然後分別進行商業地產。您能否給我們更多的信息，告訴我們您在哪裡看到了壓力，辦公大樓的類型是什麼？當您重新評估房產時，您看到的標的資產有哪些類型的標記？這是否給了你——我想也許只是談談你對這個水平的更新後的 7.9% 辦公室準備金的信心程度？

Yes. And really, the allowance I would -- allowance coverage ratio, I would pay attention to on the slide is our CIB CRE office portfolio, which is close to 11%. And that's really the institutional style office buildings where really the stress is coming through. .

是的。事實上，我會​​在投影片上關注的津貼——津貼覆蓋率是我們的 CIB CRE 辦公室投資組合，接近 11%。這確實是機構風格的辦公大樓，壓力真正來自這裡。 。

When you look at the charge-offs, it was across a number of properties. It wasn't 1 or 2. It was pretty geographically dispersed across different cities and across different parts of the country. So there wasn't an over-concentration anywhere. Each of the properties have very specific situations. And so there was a pretty wide range in terms of where the price cleared or where the appraisal came in.

當你查看沖銷情況時，會發現沖銷涉及許多房產。它不是一兩個。它在地理上相當分散在不同的城市和全國的不同地區。所以沒有任何地方過度集中。每個屬性都有非常具體的情況。因此，就價格清算或評估的範圍而言，範圍相當廣泛。

A good chunk of these properties are being marked because we've got new appraisals for various reasons. A small amount of it was actually realized because the note or the property was sold. And so for a good amount of it, we'll see how it ultimately plays out. There could be recoveries as we go. But it was a pretty -- as you would expect, it was a substantial decline in what people thought the value of the properties was just a year or 2 ago.

這些房產中的很大一部分正在被標記，因為我們出於各種原因得到了新的評估。其中一小部分實際上是因為票據或財產被出售而變現的。因此，對於很大一部分，我們將看看它最終會如何發揮作用。隨著我們的進展，可能會有復原。但這是一個漂亮的——正如你所預料的那樣，人們對一兩年前房產價值的看法大幅下降。

The next question will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的傑拉德·卡西迪。

On the guide for the net interest income on the forward curve, if the forward curve is incorrect and we're sitting here a year from now rather than seeing a 4.15% or 4.16% Fed funds rate. If it's closer to 5% or 4.90%, how much of a positive would that be for a higher net interest income for you guys? Have you guys -- I'm assuming you use different sensitivity analysis to kind of give yourself a sense of where net interest income could go under different rate scenarios?

在遠期曲線上的淨利息收入指南中，如果遠期曲線不正確，並且一年後我們坐在這裡，而不是看到 4.15% 或 4.16% 的聯邦基金利率。如果接近 5% 或 4.90%，這對你們來說更高的淨利息收入有多大的正面作用？你們有嗎－我假設你們使用不同的敏感度分析來讓自己了解不同利率情境下淨利息收入的走向？

Yes. I would -- just like I think John McDonald asked it earlier, I would look at our interest rate sensitivity, Gerard. And as I said, we're still modestly asset sensitive, a little bit less at the end of the fourth quarter than the third quarter. And I think it is a pretty linear sort of equation there. And so I would just look at the 100 basis point move that we have in there. It's around a couple of billion dollars of move when you look at that as of the end of the third quarter. Again, it will come in slightly from that likely at the end of the fourth quarter and just use whatever assumption you want and it is a pretty linear -- within reason, and it's a pretty linear equation.

是的。我會——就像我認為約翰·麥克唐納早些時候問過的那樣，我會考慮我們的利率敏感性，傑拉德。正如我所說，我們仍然對資產保持適度的敏感度，第四季末的資產敏感度略低於第三季。我認為這是一個非常線性的方程式。所以我只想看看我們的 100 個基點變動。截至第三季末，這一數字約為數十億美元。同樣，它可能會在第四季度末略有下降，並且只使用你想要的任何假設，它是一個非常線性的 - 在合理範圍內，並且它是一個非常線性的方程式。

Okay. And then you guys obviously have been very focused on the expense reduction and admirable job since you guys all got there obviously. Is there any way that you could bring down the operating losses? I think they've been pretty consistent at $1.3 billion for a bit. Is there anything in there that down the road, you could change where it would actually fall? Or is it just something that is just the cost of doing business with fraud, theft and et cetera?

好的。然後你們顯然一直非常關注減少開支和令人欽佩的工作，因為你們顯然都做到了這一點。有什麼辦法可以減少營業損失嗎？我認為他們暫時穩定在 13 億美元。那裡有什麼東西可以改變它實際掉落的位置嗎？或者這只是與詐欺、竊盜等做生意的成本？

Well, there's certainly some portion of that, that will -- it's just the cost of doing business. Now even on the fraud and BAU operating losses, we, as most people, I would think are continuing to invest in capabilities to reduce those more and more. And that's -- and we continue to do that as well. And then I think as we continue to put more of the issues -- historical issues behind us, hopefully, the overall number continues to trend downward.

嗯，其中肯定有一部分——這只是做生意的成本。現在，即使在詐欺和 BAU 營運損失方面，我們和大多數人一樣，我認為我們正在繼續投資於能力，以越來越多地減少這些損失。這就是──我們也將繼續這樣做。然後我認為，隨著我們繼續將更多的問題——歷史問題拋在腦後，希望總數繼續呈下降趨勢。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Any thoughts on where card charge-offs go in '24? I think you're about 4% this quarter and I guess you've had really good growth. So if we lag it like we used to do in the old days, maybe we get about 4.5%. I don't know if that's a good starting point or just any way to frame losses from here?

你對 24 年信用卡沖銷的去向有什麼想法嗎？我認為本季的成長率約為 4%，並且成長非常好。因此，如果我們像過去那樣滯後，也許我們會得到 4.5% 左右。我不知道這是否是一個好的起點，或者只是從這裡開始彌補損失的任何方法？

Yes. Yes, I won't give you a specific number, but the way you're thinking about it is exactly right. I think as you look at the portfolio that we have, which might be a little different than others is we launched the new product set starting a little over 2 years ago, but you've sort of seen more meaningful new account growth starting about 2 years ago. And so you're in that normal maturation curve and seasoning of sort of losses as they come on. And so we would expect that it would continue to trend a little bit higher from where it is.

是的。是的，我不會給你一個具體的數字，但你的想法是完全正確的。我認為，當您查看我們擁有的產品組合時，可能與其他產品組合略有不同，因為我們從兩年多前開始推出了新產品集，但您已經看到從大約2 年前開始，新帳戶的成長更為有意義。幾年前。因此，當它們出現時，你就處於正常的成熟曲線和某種損失的調味中。因此，我們預計它將繼續從目前的水平繼續走高。

And then we're seeing this, obviously, not just with you guys, but kind of across the board in terms of card losses go up, even though we're still in this really good environment in terms of employment and wealth and still a bit of excess savings. Just thoughts on like what's driving losses, again, not just for you, but just for everybody. There's life events that always happen but it just feels like maybe card losses are getting a little higher than I would have thought with unemployment where it is and again, like jobs available and all those dynamics.

然後我們顯然看到了這一點，不僅是你們，而且卡損失全面上升，儘管我們在就業和財富方面仍然處於這個非常好的環境中，並且仍然是一個一點多餘的儲蓄。只是想想是什麼導致了損失，再次，不僅是為了你，也是為了每個人。生活中總是會發生一些事情，但感覺信用卡損失可能會比我想像的要高一些，因為失業率再次出現，例如可用的工作機會和所有這些動態。

Yes, maybe I'll start. And I think as Charlie kind of highlighted in his script, the averages all look fine when you look at liquidity or deposit balances. And certainly, even when you look at the cumulative wage growth that you've seen over the last few years, in aggregate, you go -- it paints a pretty good picture. But when you go below that, and we've tried to highlight this a few times over the last year or so, when you go below that, there are certainly cohorts of clients or people that are stressed.

是的，也許我會開始。我認為，正如查理在他的劇本中所強調的那樣，當你查看流動性或存款餘額時，平均值看起來都很好。當然，即使你看看過去幾年的累積薪資成長，總的來說，你也會發現——它描繪了一幅相當不錯的圖景。但是，當你低於這個水平時，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡曾多次試圖強調這一點，當你低於這個水平時，肯定會有一群客戶或人們感到壓力。

And the further you go down in income levels or the further you go down on wealth levels, the cumulative impact of inflation has really taken a toll. And so you're going to have some percentage of people that are feeling much more stressed than what the aggregate numbers would imply. And in some cases, their liquidity is going to be lower than it was pre-COVID. In some cases, they've been having to build bigger credit card balances. And so for us, it's not a big part of the overall portfolio. But you're going to continue to see that, which is something we should all have expected and expect to see as you go forward.

收入水準或財富水準下降越多，通貨膨脹的累積影響就確實造成了損失。因此，會有一定比例的人感到比總體數字所暗示的壓力大得多。在某些情況下，他們的流動性將低於新冠疫情之前的水平。在某些情況下，他們必須增加信用卡餘額。因此對我們來說，它並不是整個產品組合的重要組成部分。但你會繼續看到這一點，這是我們都應該期待並期望在你前進的過程中看到的事情。

And the only thing I would add is that, that is -- that's something that has always -- let me say, always existed pre-COVID, right? There are always people that were doing better and there were people that were doing worse. And I think what's important -- I can speak for ourselves, when we look at our card losses, what we actually are looking at is how they're performing on a vintage basis versus pre-COVID levels. And the curves are right on top of what that is. And so it's -- when we talk about getting back to normal in terms of what we're seeing, that's what we're actually seeing in card losses. We're not seeing at this point anything that goes beyond that.

我唯一要補充的是，也就是說，這一直是——讓我說，在新冠疫情之前就一直存在，對吧？總有人做得更好，也有人做得更差。我認為重要的是——我可以為自己說話，當我們審視我們的卡片損失時，我們實際上關注的是它們在過去的基礎上與新冠疫情之前的水平相比的表現。曲線就在上面。所以，當我們談論恢復正常時，我們所看到的情況就是我們實際看到的卡片損失。目前我們還沒有看到任何超出此範圍的事情。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just lastly, if I can squeeze in, remind me like your targeted customer, I think it's like [5 plus]. But any way to frame that in terms of whether it's FICO or wealth metric or homeowner percent? Or any way just to frame it, it is becoming a bigger part of the company, obviously, so..

好的。這很有幫助。最後，如果我能擠進去，像你的目標客戶一樣提醒我，我想這就像[5+]。但有什麼方法可以用 FICO、財富指標或房主百分比來描述這一點呢？或以任何方式來描述它，它正在成為公司的一個更大的部分，顯然，所以......

Yes. Look, we're not going to get that specific. But when you look at like individual products, they're targeted towards different cohorts of clients. But what I would say, overall, we feel really good about the credit quality of the new accounts we're putting on. And in most cases, in most products, the credit profile is better than what we have from historical back book.

是的。聽著，我們不會說得那麼具體。但是，當您查看類似的單一產品時，您會發現它們針對的是不同的客戶群。但我想說的是，總的來說，我們對我們新開立的帳戶的信用品質感覺非常好。在大多數情況下，在大多數產品中，信用狀況都比我們從歷史記錄中得到的更好。

The next question will come from Dave Rochester of Compass Point Research.

下一個問題將由 Compass Point Research 的 Dave Rochester 提出。

Sorry for one more question on the NII guide here, but I was just curious. How much of that decline that you're expecting for this year is driven by that continued remix of deposits and the lower noninterest-bearing deposits you talked about? And where are you assuming that, that DDA mix settles out this year?

抱歉，我還有一個關於 NII 指南的問題，但我只是很好奇。您預計今年的下降有多少是由存款的持續重組和您談到的無息存款的減少造成的？您認為今年 DDA 組合的結果如何？

Yes. As you would guess, like when you lose noninterest-bearing deposits or they shift into higher-yielding products that's going to have a pretty substantial impact. And so that is a big driver of what the decline is for the rest of the year. We won't get -- we haven't really talked about exactly where it bottoms, but it should stabilize at some point.

是的。正如您所猜測的那樣，就像當您失去無息存款或它們轉向高收益產品時，這將產生相當大的影響。因此，這是今年剩餘時間下降的重要推動因素。我們不會——我們還沒有真正討論過它到底在哪裡，但它應該會在某個時候穩定下來。

Okay. And then on capital, I was curious what more buybacks means for capital ratios and that 2.5% buffer you talked about. By the end of '24, all else equal, is the thought that you'll take those ratios and that buffer lower this year?

好的。然後在資本方面，我很好奇更多的回購對資本比率以及你提到的 2.5% 的緩衝意味著什麼。到 24 年底，在其他條件相同的情況下，您是否認為今年會降低這些比率和緩衝？

We'll see. But I think I won't try to give you a buyback number. Lots of things go into figuring that out throughout the year. But as we said, we expect buybacks to be bigger than last year. And the level -- assuming that nothing significant happens in the macro environment, the level that we're at is higher than we need to be.

我們拭目以待。但我想我不會試圖給你一個回購號碼。全年有很多事情需要解決這個問題。但正如我們所說，我們預計回購規模將比去年更大。假設宏觀環境中沒有發生任何重大事件，我們所處的水平高於我們需要的水平。

And our last question will come from Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

Two quick ones for me. I know you said your guide includes stable deposits, but a shift towards interest-bearing deposits. Wouldn't end to QT stop that share shift? Or is it different given you're seeing their share shift from the consumer side?

對我來說兩個快點。我知道你說過你的指南包括穩定存款，但轉向有息存款。 QT 的結束不會阻止這種份額轉移嗎？或者考慮到您看到他們的份額從消費者方面轉移，情況是否有所不同？

Yes. What we said is we expect stable deposits on the wealth and the commercial side. We do expect some declines on the consumer side. And an end to QT would be a positive.

是的。我們所說的是我們期望財富和商業方面的存款穩定。我們確實預期消費者方面會出現一些下降。結束 QT 將是一個積極的因素。

And can you expand on that a little bit? Why would that be?

能詳細說明一下嗎？為什麼會這樣呢？

Well, QT is drains -- well, at some point, more meaningfully drain liquidity out of the banking system, right? So once you get the RRP facility down to a smaller number, which is likely to happen, then any further QT starts to really remove liquidity more directly out of the banking system. And so that stops, that's a positive for deposits.

嗯，QT 就是流失——嗯，在某些時候，更有意義的是從銀行系統中流失流動性，對嗎？因此，一旦你將 RRP 額度降低到較小的數字（這很可能發生），那麼任何進一步的 QT 都會開始真正從銀行系統中更直接地消除流動性。這樣就停止了，這對存款來說是有利的。

Got it. Okay. And then just on credit, how do falling rates impact your outlook for CRE losses. At the margin, do you feel better about working with borrowers and mitigating losses and NPLs and how long this takes to work out? Or have things not changed that meaningfully yet?

知道了。好的。然後就信貸而言，利率下降如何影響您對商業房地產損失的前景。在邊際上，您是否對與借款人合作並減輕損失和不良貸款感覺更好？這需要多長時間才能解決？或者事情還沒有發生有意義的改變嗎？

It hasn't changed that meaningfully yet. Really, we're dealing with what is a structural change in sort of demand for real estate in some parts of the country. So you got to work through that. And then I think on the margin, lower rates are helpful, but the bigger issue needs to get worked through first.

它還沒有發生有意義的改變。事實上，我們正​​在應對該國某些地區房地產需求的結構性變化。所以你必須解決這個問題。然後我認為，在邊際上，較低的利率是有幫助的，但更大的問題需要先解決。

And at this time...

此時…

Okay. Thanks, everyone, for the questions. See you next time.

好的。謝謝大家的提問。下次見。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。這時，各方都可能斷開連線。