富國銀行 (WFC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note that today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您參加富國銀行 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss third quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf；我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第三季度的業績並回答您的問題。正在錄製此通話。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our third quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck, are available on our website at wellsfargo.com. I'd also, like, to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第三季度收益材料，包括新聞稿、財務補充和演示文稿，可在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上找到。我還想提醒您，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素，包括今天提交的包含我們收益材料的 8-K 表格。有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的對賬，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將把電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll make some brief comments about our third quarter results, the operating environment, and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review third quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我將對我們的第三季度業績、運營環境做一些簡短的評論，並向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後，在我們回答您的問題之前，我會將電話轉給 Mike，以更詳細地審查第三季度的業績。

Let me start with the third quarter highlights. Our solid business performance this quarter was significantly impacted by $2 billion or $0.45 per share in operating losses related to litigation, customer remediation and regulatory matters primarily related to a variety of historical matters.

讓我從第三季度的亮點開始。我們本季度穩健的業務表現受到 20 億美元或每股 0.45 美元的與訴訟、客戶補救和主要與各種歷史事項相關的監管事項相關的經營損失的重大影響。

As you know, we've been and remain focused on increasing our earnings capacity and see the positive impact of rising interest rates, driving strong net interest income growth and our continued focus on improving operating efficiencies, resulting in lower expenses, excluding operating losses. Credit quality remains strong, and we continue to invest in our technology platforms, digital capabilities and delivering additional products to our customers and clients.

如您所知，我們一直並將繼續專注於提高我們的盈利能力，並看到利率上升的積極影響，推動強勁的淨利息收入增長以及我們繼續專注於提高運營效率，從而降低開支，不包括運營虧損。信用質量依然強勁，我們繼續投資於我們的技術平台、數字能力，並為我們的客戶和客戶提供更多產品。

While we're closely monitoring trends with economic conditions expected to weaken given inflation, geopolitical instability, energy price volatility and rising interest rates, our customers continue to be resilient with overall strong credit performance and solid cash flow. When looking at simple averages across the entire consumer portfolio, deposit balances per account decreased from the second quarter, but were still higher than a year ago and remained above pre-pandemic levels.

雖然我們正在密切關注由於通貨膨脹、地緣政治不穩定、能源價格波動和利率上升而預計經濟狀況將減弱的趨勢，但我們的客戶繼續憑藉整體強勁的信貸表現和穩健的現金流保持彈性。從整個消費組合的簡單平均值來看，每個賬戶的存款餘額較第二季度有所下降，但仍高於一年前，仍高於大流行前的水平。

However, we continue to closely monitor activity by segment for signs of potential stress and for certain cohorts of customers. We've seen average balances steadily decline and are now below pre-pandemic levels, and their debit card spend continues to decline. This is a continuation of what I referenced last quarter, but it's important to note that this remains a small percentage of our total customer base.

但是，我們將繼續按細分市場密切監控活動，以發現潛在壓力跡象和某些客戶群。我們看到平均餘額穩步下降，現在低於大流行前的水平，他們的借記卡支出繼續下降。這是我上個季度提到的內容的延續，但重要的是要注意，這仍然是我們總客戶群的一小部分。

Overall, our consumer deposit customers' health indicators, including cash flow, payroll and overdraft trends, are still not showing elevated risk concerns. Debit card spending remained significantly above pre-pandemic levels and was up 3% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, consistent with the second quarter increase. Entertainment and fuel spending had the largest increases from a year ago, but the recent decline in fuel prices drove fuel spending to decline compared to the second quarter.

總體而言，我們的消費存款客戶的健康指標，包括現金流、工資和透支趨勢，仍未顯示出較高的風險擔憂。借記卡支出仍顯著高於大流行前的水平，第三季度與去年同期相比增長了 3%，與第二季度的增長一致。娛樂和燃料支出較去年同期增幅最大，但近期燃料價格下跌導致燃料支出與第二季度相比有所下降。

Apparel and home improvement spending declined from both the year ago and second quarter. Credit card spend remained strong in the third quarter, up 25% from a year ago, with double-digit increases coming across all spending categories. Spending was up modestly on a linked-quarter basis. So remember, the significant portion of this growth is from our new products, which continued to have strong credit profiles.

與去年同期和第二季度相比，服裝和家居裝修支出均有所下降。第三季度信用卡消費依然強勁，同比增長 25%，所有消費類別均實現兩位數增長。與季度掛鉤的支出小幅上升。所以請記住，這種增長的很大一部分來自我們的新產品，這些產品繼續擁有強大的信用狀況。

Period-end commercial loan balances were stable compared to the second quarter, with continued growth in commercial banking, offset by declines across our businesses in corporate and investment banking. Credit performance remained strong, with net charge-offs and nonaccrual loans continuing to decline from exceptionally low levels. Clients do tell us that they continue to be impacted by persistent inflation, rising interest rates and tight labor market. And while credit quality remains strong, we're actively monitoring inflation-sensitive industries and taking proactive actions where warranted.

期末商業貸款餘額與第二季度相比保持穩定，商業銀行業務持續增長，但被公司和投資銀行業務的下滑所抵消。信貸表現依然強勁，淨核銷和非應計貸款繼續從極低的水平下降。客戶確實告訴我們，他們繼續受到持續通脹、利率上升和勞動力市場緊張的影響。儘管信用質量依然強勁，但我們正在積極監測對通脹敏感的行業，並在必要時採取積極行動。

Now, let me update you on the progress we're making on our strategic priorities. We continue to devote significant resources to implementing an appropriate risk and control framework across the company, and this remains our top priority. We continue to make progress and are executing on our plans, but significant work remains.

現在，讓我向您介紹我們在戰略重點方面取得的進展。我們繼續投入大量資源在整個公司實施適當的風險和控制框架，這仍然是我們的首要任務。我們繼續取得進展並正在執行我們的計劃，但仍有大量工作要做。

As a reminder, though I'm confident in our ability to complete the work, it remains a significant body of work and the primary focus of the company. We have set high standards for success, and given the long-standing nature of much of our work, we have said that we remain at risk of setbacks until it is complete. Expenses in the quarter reflect these ongoing risks and our efforts to resolve them.

提醒一下，儘管我對我們完成工作的能力充滿信心，但它仍然是一項重要的工作，也是公司的主要關注點。我們為成功設定了高標準，鑑於我們大部分工作的長期性質，我們曾表示，在完成之前，我們仍然面臨挫折的風險。本季度的費用反映了這些持續存在的風險以及我們為解決這些風險所做的努力。

As we continue our work to put our historical issues behind us and to address issues that are identified as we advance our risk control infrastructure work, outstanding issues still remain that will likely result in additional expense in the coming quarters, which could be significant. We are working to close these as quickly as possible, and we remain committed to doing right by our customers and working closely with our regulators and others to resolve these matters. We recognize the importance of moving forward, and the expenses in the quarter are representative of these efforts.

隨著我們繼續努力將歷史問題拋在腦後，並解決在推進風險控制基礎設施工作時發現的問題，懸而未決的問題仍然存在，可能會導致未來幾個季度的額外費用，這可能是重大的。我們正在努力盡快解決這些問題，我們仍然致力於為我們的客戶做正確的事，並與我們的監管機構和其他人密切合作以解決這些問題。我們認識到前進的重要性，本季度的費用代表了這些努力。

At the same time, we're implementing changes to better serve our customers and investing in our businesses to help drive growth. As part of the announcement we made earlier this year to limit overdraft-related fees and give customers more options to achieve their financial goals, we implemented extra day grace period of the third quarter, which provides consumer customers an extra business day to cure negative balances and avoid overdraft fees.

與此同時，我們正在實施變革以更好地服務於我們的客戶並投資於我們的業務以幫助推動增長。作為我們今年早些時候宣布限制透支相關費用並為客戶提供更多選擇以實現其財務目標的公告的一部分，我們在第三季度實施了額外的一天寬限期，為消費者客戶提供額外的工作日來解決負餘額並避免透支費用。

We also began to roll out early payday, which provides consumer -- customers who are -- who receive eligible direct deposits the ability to access funds up to 2 days earlier than scheduled, further reducing the potential to incur overdrafts. Notably, while this enhancement was rolled out in only 6 states in the third quarter, during the first 2 weeks of offering this enhancement, we provided customers early access to $2 billion in funds from 1.3 million eligible direct deposits.

我們還開始推出提前發薪日，這為消費者（客戶）提供了接收合格直接存款的能力，比預定時間提前最多 2 天獲得資金，進一步降低了發生透支的可能性。值得注意的是，雖然此增強功能在第三季度僅在 6 個州推出，但在提供此增強功能的前兩週，我們為客戶提供了從 130 萬筆合格直接存款中提前獲得 20 億美元資金的機會。

And we're on track for a fourth quarter rollout of an easy-to-access short-term credit product that will give qualifying customers another option to meet their personal financial needs. These actions build on services that we've introduced over the past several years, including offering an account that does not charge any overdraft fees. We now have over 1.6 million of those clear access banking accounts, up 57% from a year ago.

我們有望在第四季度推出易於訪問的短期信貸產品，該產品將為符合條件的客戶提供另一種滿足其個人財務需求的選擇。這些行動建立在我們過去幾年推出的服務的基礎上，包括提供不收取任何透支費用的賬戶。我們現在擁有超過 160 萬個可訪問的銀行賬戶，比一年前增長了 57%。

And as I mentioned last quarter, we've developed a new integrated banking, lending and investment offering that is geared towards the more complex financial needs of our affluent clients called Wells Fargo Premier. During the quarter, we introduced Wells Fargo Premier across our entire branch footprint, initiated a branded digital experience, and launched marketing programs to help affluent customers learn more about how we can better serve them. We'll continue to build the Wells Fargo Premier offering in the -- tucked in the coming quarters.

正如我上個季度提到的那樣，我們開發了一種新的綜合銀行、貸款和投資產品，旨在滿足我們富裕客戶的更複雜的財務需求，稱為 Wells Fargo Premier。在本季度，我們在整個分行推出了 Wells Fargo Premier，啟動了品牌數字體驗，並啟動了營銷計劃，以幫助富裕客戶更多地了解我們如何更好地為他們服務。我們將在接下來的幾個季度中繼續打造 Wells Fargo Premier 產品。

In the third quarter, we continued to launch new APIs, providing our commercial and corporate clients more flexibility and helping them drive efficiencies. For example, we launched a new real-time payment API, allowing clients to send digital requests to a payer that can be approved to easily send a real-time credit transfer. We also launched a virtual card API, which enables clients to create and configure virtual cards for B2B vendor payments and purchases.

在第三季度，我們繼續推出新的 API，為我們的商業和企業客戶提供更大的靈活性並幫助他們提高效率。例如，我們推出了一個新的實時支付 API，允許客戶向付款人發送數字請求，付款人可以輕鬆發送實時信用轉賬。我們還推出了虛擬卡 API，使客戶能夠為 B2B 供應商支付和購買創建和配置虛擬卡。

In our CIB markets businesses, we're accelerating our investment into our electronic trading capabilities across multiple asset classes to better meet the evolving needs of our clients, which is helping to drive strong gains in trading volumes. And we're selectively adding talent in our investment banking coverage and product areas as we focus on leveraging our strong existing relationships to build our fee-based businesses.

在我們的 CIB 市場業務中，我們正在加快對跨多個資產類別的電子交易能力的投資，以更好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，這有助於推動交易量的強勁增長。我們正在有選擇地在我們的投資銀行業務覆蓋範圍和產品領域增加人才，因為我們專注於利用我們強大的現有關係來建立我們的收費業務。

We also continued to make progress on the environmental, social and governance work that is underway at Wells Fargo. In the third quarter, we published our latest ESG report, which highlights the progress we made in 2021 on our ESG efforts. We consider this work a sustained long-term commitment, and believe Wells Fargo is well positioned to make a difference. We issued our second sustainability bond in the amount of $2 billion that will finance projects and programs, supporting housing affordability, economic opportunity, renewable energy and clean transportation.

我們還在富國銀行正在進行的環境、社會和治理工作方面繼續取得進展。在第三季度，我們發布了最新的 ESG 報告，其中強調了我們在 2021 年在 ESG 工作上取得的進展。我們認為這項工作是一項持續的長期承諾，並相信富國銀行有能力做出改變。我們發行了第二筆 20 億美元的可持續發展債券，用於資助項目和計劃，支持住房負擔能力、經濟機會、可再生能源和清潔交通。

During the third quarter, we officially launched a new grant program in Houston, San Diego and Milwaukee to help improve racial equity in home ownership, and we have more markets coming before the end of this year. This is part of the $60 million commitment we made earlier this year through the Wells Fargo Foundation to wealth opportunities restored through home ownership for worth. This effort aims to create 40,000 homeowners of color access -- 40,000 homeowners of color across 8 markets by the end of 2025.

在第三季度，我們在休斯敦、聖地亞哥和密爾沃基正式啟動了一項新的贈款計劃，以幫助改善房屋所有權的種族平等，我們將在今年年底前推出更多市場。這是我們今年早些時候通過富國銀行基金會做出的 6000 萬美元承諾的一部分，該承諾旨在通過物有所值的房屋所有權來恢復財富機會。這項努力的目標是在 2025 年底之前在 8 個市場創建 40,000 名有色人種的房主 - 40,000 名有色人種的房主。

We announced a $1 million donation to provide urgent relief to Florida following the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. In addition, customer accommodations and employee support are available to those directly impacted by the storm.

在伊恩颶風過後，我們宣布捐贈 100 萬美元，為佛羅里達州提供緊急救濟。此外，直接受風暴影響的人員可以使用客戶住宿和員工支持。

In summary, continued high inflation has kept the Federal Reserve aggressive with rate hikes, leading the housing market to slow rapidly and the heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and geopolitical events caused the financial markets to be volatile. However, labor demand remains robust, consumer balance sheets remain healthy, and customers have capacity to borrow.

總而言之，持續的高通脹使美聯儲積極加息，導致房地產市場迅速放緩，經濟前景和地緣政治事件的不確定性加劇導致金融市場動盪。然而，勞動力需求依然強勁，消費者資產負債表保持健康，客戶有借貸能力。

Wells Fargo is positioned well as we will continue to benefit from higher rates and ongoing disciplined expense management. Both consumer and business customers remain in a strong financial condition, and we continue to see historically low delinquencies and high payment rates across our portfolios. We're closely monitoring risks related to the continued impact of high inflation and increasing rates as well as the broader geopolitical risks, and we do expect to see increases in delinquencies, and ultimately, credit losses, but the timing remains unclear.

富國銀行的定位很好，因為我們將繼續受益於更高的利率和持續的嚴格費用管理。消費者和企業客戶的財務狀況都保持強勁，我們繼續看到我們投資組合的拖欠率和支付率處於歷史低位。我們正在密切關注與高通脹和利率上升的持續影響以及更廣泛的地緣政治風險相關的風險，我們確實預計拖欠率會增加，最終信用損失會增加，但時間仍不明朗。

As we look forward, we remain bullish on our business opportunities. Our higher operating margins and strong capital ratios have prepared us for a wide range of macroeconomic scenarios. In the third quarter, we increased our common stock dividend by 20% and our CET1 ratio was 10.3%, 110 basis points above our current regulatory minimum, including buffers. We will continue to prudently manage our capital levels to be appropriately prepared for slowing economy and market volatility.

展望未來，我們仍然看好我們的商機。我們較高的營業利潤率和強大的資本比率為我們應對各種宏觀經濟情景做好了準備。在第三季度，我們將普通股股息提高了 20%，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%，比我們目前的最低監管要求（包括緩衝）高 110 個基點。我們將繼續審慎管理資本水平，為經濟放緩和市場波動做好適當準備。

Finally, I know many of you are interested in our 2023 expectations and our -- and on our next earnings call, we plan to provide our 2023 expense and net interest income outlook, as well as more color on our path to an over the cycle of 15% ROTCE.

最後，我知道你們中的許多人對我們 2023 年的預期和我們的 - 以及在我們的下一次財報電話會議上，我們計劃提供我們 2023 年的費用和淨利息收入前景，以及我們通向整個週期的道路上的更多色彩15% ROTCE。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，查理，大家早上好。

Net income for the quarter was $3.5 billion or $0.85 per diluted common share. As Charlie highlighted, our results included $2 billion or $0.45 per share of accruals primarily related to a variety of historical matters. These accruals drove our total expenses higher. However, if you exclude operating losses, our expenses would have declined as we continue to execute on our efficiency initiatives. Revenue grew in the third quarter, driven by higher net interest income, while noninterest income also increased from the second quarter. Our effective income tax rate for the third quarter was 20.2%.

本季度的淨收入為 35 億美元或每股攤薄普通股 0.85 美元。正如查理強調的那樣，我們的結果包括主要與各種歷史事件相關的 20 億美元或每股 0.45 美元的應計項目。這些應計費用推高了我們的總支出。但是，如果您排除運營損失，我們的費用將會下降，因為我們將繼續執行我們的效率計劃。由於淨利息收入增加，第三季度收入增長，而非利息收入也較第二季度有所增加。我們第三季度的有效所得稅率為 20.2%。

We highlight capital on Slide 3. Our CET1 ratio is 10.3%, down 6 basis points from the second quarter as the 21 basis point decline from AOCI as well as the impact from dividend payments was nearly offset by our third quarter earnings. Our CET1 ratio remained well above our required regulatory minimum plus buffers, which increased by 10 basis points to 9.2% at the start of the fourth quarter as our new stress capital buffer took effect. As a reminder, our G-SIB surcharge will not increase in 2023.

我們在幻燈片 3 上強調資本。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%，比第二季度下降 6 個基點，因為 AOCI 下降 21 個基點以及股息支付的影響幾乎被我們第三季度的收益所抵消。我們的 CET1 比率仍遠高於我們要求的最低監管加緩衝，隨著我們新的壓力資本緩衝生效，該比率在第四季度初增加了 10 個基點至 9.2%。提醒一下，我們的 G-SIB 附加費在 2023 年不會增加。

We did not buy back any common stock in the second or third quarters, and we will continue to be prudent regarding the amount and timing of any share repurchases.

我們在第二季度或第三季度沒有回購任何普通股，我們將繼續謹慎對待任何股票回購的數量和時間。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 5. Credit performance remained strong, with only 17 basis points of net charge-offs in the third quarter. However, as expected, losses are slowly increasing from historical lows, and we expect them to continue to normalize towards pre-pandemic levels over time as the Federal Reserve continues to take actions to combat inflation. We are closely monitoring our portfolio for potential risks, and are continuing to take some targeted actions to further tighten underwriting standards.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的信貸質量。信貸表現依然強勁，第三季度只有 17 個基點的淨沖銷。然而，正如預期的那樣，損失正從歷史低點緩慢增加，隨著美聯儲繼續採取行動對抗通脹，我們預計隨著時間的推移，損失將繼續正常化至大流行前的水平。我們正在密切監控我們的投資組合是否存在潛在風險，並繼續採取一些有針對性的行動以進一步收緊承保標準。

Commercial credit performance remained strong across our commercial businesses, with only $6 million of net charge-offs and net recoveries in our commercial real estate portfolio for the third consecutive quarter. We also had net recoveries in our consumer real estate portfolios. However, total consumer net charge-offs increased $72 million from the second quarter to 40 basis points on average loans, driven by an increase in net charge-offs in the auto portfolio.

我們的商業業務的商業信貸表現依然強勁，我們的商業房地產投資組合連續第三個季度淨沖銷和淨回收只有 600 萬美元。我們的消費房地產投資組合也實現了淨復甦。然而，由於汽車投資組合的淨沖銷增加，消費者淨沖銷總額較第二季度增加 7200 萬美元，平均貸款增加 40 個基點。

Higher loss rates on certain auto loans originated primarily in the latter part of 2021 contributed to the linked quarter increase in charge-offs and delinquent loans in the auto portfolio. Lower loan balances also impacted the loss rate, which started -- we started taking credit tightening actions earlier this year, which have improved the quality of 2022 originations. As a result of these actions, increased pricing competition and continued industry supply chain constraints, the third quarter origination volumes were down over 40% compared to a year ago.

主要源自 2021 年下半年的某些汽車貸款的較高損失率導致相關季度汽車投資組合中的沖銷和拖欠貸款增加。較低的貸款餘額也影響了開始的損失率——我們今年早些時候開始採取信貸收緊措施，這提高了 2022 年貸款的質量。由於這些行動、價格競爭加劇和行業供應鏈持續受限，第三季度的原產地數量與一年前相比下降了 40% 以上。

Nonperforming assets declined again in the third quarter and were down $411 million or 7% from the second quarter and down 20% from a year ago. While commercial nonaccruals continued to decline, lower levels of consumer nonaccruals were the primary driver of lower nonperforming assets due to a decrease in residential mortgage nonaccrual loans from the impact of customers' sustained payment performance after exiting COVID-related accommodation programs. Our allowance for credit losses increased $385 million in the third quarter, primarily reflecting loan growth and a less favorable economic environment.

第三季度不良資產再次下降，比第二季度下降 4.11 億美元或 7%，比去年同期下降 20%。雖然商業非應計貸款繼續下降，但消費者非應計貸款水平較低是不良資產減少的主要驅動因素，原因是由於客戶在退出與 COVID 相關的住宿計劃後持續付款表現的影響，住宅抵押貸款非應計貸款減少。第三季度我們的信貸損失準備金增加了 3.85 億美元，主要反映了貸款增長和不利的經濟環境。

On Slide 6, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 11% from a year ago and 2% from the second quarter. Period-end loans increased for the fifth consecutive quarter, but growth slowed as expected, with commercial loan balances holding relatively stable from the second quarter, while consumer loans grew driven by credit card and first lien residential mortgage loans, partially offset by continued declines in our auto portfolio.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們突出顯示了貸款和存款。平均貸款比去年同期增長 11%，比第二季度增長 2%。期末貸款連續第五個季度增長，但增速如預期放緩，商業貸款餘額較二季度相對穩定，而消費貸款增長則受信用卡和第一留置權住房抵押貸款的拉動，部分被信用貸款的持續下降所抵消。我們的汽車產品組合。

I'll highlight the specific growth drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased nearly 100 basis points from a year ago and 76 basis points from the second quarter, reflecting the higher rate environment. Average deposits declined 3% from both the year ago and the second quarter, with declines across our deposit-gathering businesses.

在討論我們的運營部門業績時，我將強調具體的增長動力。平均貸款收益率較上年同期增加近 100 個基點，較第二季度增加 76 個基點，反映了較高的利率環境。與去年同期和第二季度相比，平均存款下降了 3%，我們的存款收集業務也出現了下降。

Compared with the second quarter, Wealth and Investment Management had the largest decline by dollar amount as clients look for higher-yielding alternatives. Declines in our commercial businesses were driven mostly by outflows of nonoperational deposits, which can be more price sensitive and a less stable source of funding. Outflows in consumer and small business banking were driven by continued customer spending and increased outflows from customers seeking higher-yielding products.

與第二季度相比，由於客戶尋求更高收益的替代品，財富和投資管理的跌幅最大。我們商業業務的下滑主要是由於非經營性存款的流出，這可能對價格更加敏感，資金來源不太穩定。消費者和小型企業銀行業務的資金外流是由持續的客戶支出和尋求更高收益產品的客戶的資金外流增加推動的。

Our average deposit cost increased 10 basis points from the second quarter to 14 basis points. Pricing has been consistent with our expectations, with deposit costs holding relatively stable in Consumer Banking and Lending while trending higher across other businesses. As rates continue to rise, we would expect deposit betas to continue to increase in customer migration from lower-yielding to higher-yielding deposit products to also increase.

我們的平均存款成本比第二季度增加了 10 個基點至 14 個基點。定價與我們的預期一致，個人銀行業務和貸款業務的存款成本保持相對穩定，而其他業務的存款成本呈上升趨勢。隨著利率繼續上升，我們預計存款貝塔值將繼續增加，客戶從低收益向高收益存款產品的遷移也會增加。

Turning to net interest income in Slide 7. Third quarter net interest income increased $3.2 billion or 36% from a year ago and $1.9 billion or 19% from the second quarter. The growth from the second quarter was primarily driven by the impact of higher rates, which increased earning asset yields and reduced premium amortization from mortgage-backed securities. We also benefit from higher loan balances and 1 additional day in the quarter. These benefits were partially offset by higher funding costs.

轉向幻燈片 7 中的淨利息收入。第三季度淨利息收入比去年同期增加 32 億美元或 36%，比第二季度增加 19 億美元或 19%。第二季度的增長主要受到利率上升的影響，這增加了盈利資產收益率和抵押貸款支持證券的溢價攤銷減少。我們還受益於更高的貸款餘額和本季度額外的 1 天。這些收益被較高的資金成本部分抵消。

In the first 9 months of this year, net interest income was up 19% compared with a year ago. We currently expect full year 2022 net interest income to be approximately 24% higher than a year ago, with fourth quarter 2022 net interest income expected to be approximately $12.9 billion.

今年前9個月，淨利息收入同比增長19%。我們目前預計 2022 年全年淨利息收入將比一年前增加約 24%，預計 2022 年第四季度的淨利息收入約為 129 億美元。

Turning to expenses on Slide 8. The increase in noninterest expense from both a year ago and from the second quarter was due to the higher operating losses that I highlighted earlier. Excluding operating losses, other noninterest expense was down 5% from a year ago as we had lower revenue-related compensation, expenses related to divestitures came out of the run rate, and we continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives. Excluding operating losses, our expenses would have been down on a year-over-year basis for 6 consecutive quarters.

轉向幻燈片 8 的費用。一年前和第二季度的非利息費用增加是由於我之前強調的較高的經營虧損。不計運營虧損，其他非利息費用比一年前下降了 5%，因為我們的收入相關薪酬較低，與資產剝離相關的費用超出了運行率，而且我們繼續在效率舉措方面取得進展。不計經營虧損，我們的費用將連續 6 個季度同比下降。

Another way you can see the impact of our efficiency initiatives is through lower head count, which has declined for 9 consecutive quarters and was down 6% from a year ago. We've also reduced professional and outside services expense by 10% and occupancy expense by 4% during the first 9 months this year. The higher level of operating losses in the third quarter will cause us to exceed our $51.5 billion expense outlook for 2022, which included $1.3 billion of operating losses for the full year. We currently expect our fourth quarter other expenses, excluding operating losses, to be approximately $12.3 billion.

您可以看到我們的效率計劃影響的另一種方式是減少員工人數，該人數已連續 9 個季度下降，比一年前下降了 6%。今年前 9 個月，我們還將專業和外部服務費用減少了 10%，佔用費用減少了 4%。第三季度更高水平的運營虧損將導致我們超過 2022 年 515 億美元的支出預期，其中包括全年 13 億美元的運營虧損。我們目前預計第四季度的其他費用（不包括運營虧損）約為 123 億美元。

As Charlie highlighted, outstanding litigation, customer remediation and regulatory matters still remain -- that will still remain, and will likely result in additional expense in the coming quarters, which could be significant.

正如查理強調的那樣，懸而未決的訴訟、客戶補救和監管問題仍然存在——這些問題仍然存在，並且可能會導致未來幾個季度的額外費用，這可能是巨大的。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 9. Consumer and small business banking revenue increased 29% from a year ago driven by the impact of higher interest rates and higher deposit balances. Deposit-related fees were impacted by the overdraft policy changes we rolled out earlier this year, which eliminated non-sufficient funds and some other fees. The extra day grace period launched in the beginning of August and early payday began in select states in mid-September, so we would expect our deposit-related fees to decline further in the fourth quarter.

轉向我們的運營部門，從幻燈片 9 上的個人銀行和貸款開始。受利率上升和存款餘額增加的影響，個人和小型企業銀行業務收入同比增長 29%。存款相關費用受到我們今年早些時候推出的透支政策變化的影響，該變化消除了資金不足和其他一些費用。 8 月初啟動的額外天數寬限期和 9 月中旬在某些州開始的提前發薪日，因此我們預計我們的存款相關費用將在第四季度進一步下降。

Industry mortgage rates have increased over 300 basis points since the beginning of the year and ended the quarter at the highest level since 2007, driving weekly mortgage applications as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association to a 25-year low at quarter end. As a result, our Home Lending revenue declined 52% from a year ago, driven by lower mortgage originations and gain on sale margins, as well as lower revenue from the re-securitization of loans purchased from securitization pools. While the mortgage market adjusts to lower volumes, we expect it to remain challenging in the near term, and it's possible that we have a further decline in the mortgage banking revenue in the fourth quarter when originations are seasonally slower.

自年初以來，行業抵押貸款利率已上漲超過 300 個基點，並在本季度末達到 2007 年以來的最高水平，推動抵押貸款銀行家協會衡量的每週抵押貸款申請在季度末達到 25 年低點。因此，我們的房屋貸款收入比一年前下降了 52%，原因是抵押貸款發放和銷售利潤率下降，以及從證券化池購買的貸款再證券化帶來的收入下降。雖然抵押貸款市場調整到較低的交易量，但我們預計短期內仍將面臨挑戰，並且在第四季度抵押貸款銀行業務收入出現季節性放緩時，我們的收入可能會進一步下降。

We continue to remove excess capacity to align with the reduced demand and expect these adjustments will continue over the next couple of quarters. Credit card revenue was up 8% from a year ago due to higher loan balances, which benefited from higher point-of-sale volume and new product launches. Auto revenue declined 5% from a year ago, driven by loan spread compression and partially offset by higher loan balances. And Personal Lending was 9% from a year ago due to higher loan balances driven by growth in origination volumes.

我們將繼續消除過剩產能以適應需求下降，並預計這些調整將在未來幾個季度繼續進行。由於更高的貸款餘額，信用卡收入比一年前增長了 8%，這得益於更高的銷售點數量和新產品的推出。汽車收入較上年同期下降 5%，主要受貸款利差壓縮的推動，但部分被較高的貸款餘額所抵消。由於發起量增長推動的貸款餘額增加，個人貸款比一年前增長了 9%。

Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 10. Mortgage originations declined 59% from a year ago and 37% in the second quarter, with declines in both correspondent and retail originations. Refinances as a percentage of total originations declined to 16% in the third quarter. Average home lending loan balances grew 2% from the second quarter, driven by growth in our non-conforming portfolio. I already highlighted the drivers of decline in auto originations.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的一些關鍵業務驅動因素。抵押貸款來源較去年同期下降 59%，第二季度下降 37%，代理和零售來源均下降。第三季度，再融資佔總發起的百分比下降至 16%。受我們不合格投資組合增長的推動，平均住房貸款餘額較第二季度增長 2%。我已經強調了汽車起源下降的驅動因素。

So turning to debit card. While debit card spend increased 3% from a year ago, spending declined 2% from the second quarter. As Charlie highlighted, credit card point-of-sale purchase volumes were up 25% from a year ago, with the largest percentage increases in fuel and travel. Average balances were up 21% from a year ago, reflecting the strong point of sale volume, which also benefited from the launch of new products, with new accounts up 11%. We will continue to remain disciplined in our underwriting of new credit card accounts.

所以轉向借記卡。雖然借記卡支出比去年同期增長 3%，但支出比第二季度下降 2%。正如查理強調的那樣，信用卡銷售點的購買量比一年前增長了 25%，其中燃料和旅行的百分比增幅最大。平均餘額較上年同期增長 21%，反映出銷售量強勁，這也得益於新產品的推出，新賬戶增長 11%。我們將繼續在承銷新信用卡賬戶時保持紀律。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 11. Middle Market Banking revenue increased 54% from a year ago, driven by higher net interest income due to the impact of higher rates and higher loan balances. Asset-Based Lending and Leasing revenue increased 27% from a year ago, driven by higher net gains from equity securities, higher loan balances and higher revenue from renewable energy investments.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的商業銀行業務結果。由於利率和貸款餘額增加的影響，淨利息收入增加，中間市場銀行業務收入同比增長 54%。受權益證券淨收益增加、貸款餘額增加和可再生能源投資收入增加的推動，基於資產的貸款和租賃收入同比增長 27%。

Noninterest expense increased 9% from a year ago, primarily driven by higher operating costs and higher operating losses. Average loan balances have grown for 5 consecutive quarters, and were up 17% from a year ago. Line utilization rates were fairly stable relative to the second quarter. Inflation and our customers' continued efforts to rebuild inventory as supply chain challenges remain drove the growth in Asset-Based Lending and Leasing. Loan growth in the Middle Market Banking continued to come from larger clients, which more than offset declines from smaller clients.

非利息費用比一年前增加了 9%，主要是由於較高的運營成本和較高的運營虧損。平均貸款餘額連續5個季度增長，同比增長17%。與第二季度相比，生產線利用率相當穩定。由於供應鏈挑戰仍然存在，通貨膨脹和我們客戶重建庫存的持續努力推動了基於資產的貸款和租賃的增長。中型市場銀行業務的貸款增長繼續來自大客戶，這大大抵消了小客戶的下降。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 12. Banking revenue increased 28% from a year ago driven by stronger treasury management results, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates as well as higher loan balances. Investment banking fees declined from a year ago, reflecting lower market activity. Compared with the second quarter, the increase in investment banking fees was due to the write-down of unfunded leveraged finance commitments last quarter.

在幻燈片 12 上轉向企業和投資銀行業務。銀行業務收入比一年前增長了 28%，這是由於財資管理業績強勁，反映了更高的利率和更高的貸款餘額的影響。投資銀行費用較一年前有所下降，反映出市場活動減少。與二季度相比，投行業務手續費的增加是由於上一季度未到位的槓桿融資承諾減記所致。

Commercial real estate revenue grew 29% from a year ago, driven by higher loan balances, the impact of higher interest rates as well as improved commercial mortgage bank-backed securities gain on sale margins.

由於貸款餘額增加、利率上升的影響以及商業抵押貸款銀行支持的證券銷售利潤率提高，商業房地產收入同比增長 29%。

Markets revenue increased 6% from a year ago, reflecting volatility and strong client-demanded equities, rates and commodities and foreign exchange trading. Average loans grew 19% from a year ago, with broad-based growth across our businesses to fund clients' working capital needs, but the pace of growth slowed in the third quarter with average balances up 3% and period-end loans down 3% from the second quarter.

市場收入較上年同期增長 6%，反映出波動性以及客戶對股票、利率和商品以及外匯交易的強勁需求。平均貸款同比增長 19%，我們的業務普遍增長以滿足客戶的營運資金需求，但第三季度增長速度放緩，平均餘額增長 3%，期末貸款下降 3%從第二季度開始。

On Slide 13, Wealth and Investment Management revenue grew 1% from a year ago as the increase in net interest income driven by the impact of higher rates offset the decline in asset-based fees driven by lower market valuations. As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so third quarter results reflected the lower market valuations as of July 1. And while the S&P 500 and fixed income indices declined again in the third quarter, the decrease was not as steep as the second quarter decline. So while there will be another step down in asset-based fees in the fourth quarter, it will be less significant than the third quarter decline.

在幻燈片 13 上，財富和投資管理收入同比增長 1%，原因是利率上升導致的淨利息收入增加抵消了市場估值下降導致的基於資產的費用下降。提醒一下，大多數 WIM 諮詢資產在季度初定價，因此第三季度業績反映了截至 7 月 1 日的較低市場估值。雖然標準普爾 500 指數和固定收益指數在第三季度再次下跌，但下降幅度沒有第二季度下降那麼大。因此，儘管第四季度基於資產的費用將再次下降，但其降幅將低於第三季度的下降幅度。

Expenses decreased 4% from a year ago due to lower revenue-related compensation. Average loans increased 3% from a year ago driven by continued momentum in securities-based lending.

由於與收入相關的薪酬減少，費用比一年前下降了 4%。受基於證券的貸款持續增長的推動，平均貸款比一年前增加了 3%。

Slide 14 highlights our Corporate results. Both revenue and expenses were impacted by the divestitures last year of our Corporate Trust services business and Wells Fargo Asset Management. These businesses contributed $459 million of revenue and accounted for approximately $305 million of expense in the third quarter of 2021. Revenue also declined from a year ago due to lower equity gains in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses, and given current market conditions, we don't expect equity gains to improve in the fourth quarter. Expenses increased from a year ago due to higher operating losses.

幻燈片 14 突出顯示了我們的公司業績。去年我們的企業信託服務業務和富國銀行資產管理公司的資產剝離對收入和支出都有影響。這些業務貢獻了 4.59 億美元的收入，並在 2021 年第三季度佔了約 3.05 億美元的支出。由於我們的附屬風險投資和私募股權業務的股權收益較低，並且鑑於當前的市場狀況，收入也比一年前有所下降，我們預計第四季度股票收益不會改善。由於經營虧損增加，費用較一年前有所增加。

In summary, although the high level of operating losses we had in the quarter significantly impacted our results, the underlying results in the quarter continue to reflect our improving earnings capacity. We had strong net interest income growth from rising rates, and if you exclude operating losses, our expenses would have declined as we continued to execute on our efficiency initiatives. Both our credit performance and capital levels remain strong.

總而言之，儘管本季度的高額經營虧損對我們的業績產生了重大影響，但本季度的基本業績繼續反映了我們不斷提高的盈利能力。由於利率上升，我們的淨利息收入增長強勁，如果排除經營虧損，我們的費用將會下降，因為我們繼續執行我們的效率計劃。我們的信用表現和資本水平都保持強勁。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question for today will come from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mike, I wanted to ask on the expenses. The first -- in terms of the operating losses, I know it's tough to answer, but should we think of the op loss accrual this quarter as you reassessing what you might have to pay in the future? Or you got hit with some stuff that you didn't expect and you've already paid up? Is there some combination of those? How should we think about what happened this quarter with the op loss accrual?

邁克，我想問一下費用。第一個 - 就經營虧損而言，我知道這很難回答，但在您重新評估未來可能需要支付的費用時，我們是否應該考慮本季度應計的運營虧損？或者你被一些你沒想到的東西擊中並且你已經付了錢？有沒有這些的組合？我們應該如何看待本季度發生的應計運營損失？

John, it's Charlie. I guess the way I'd describe it is, I mean, like I think you all know the accounting rules on when you accrue things are pretty clear based upon, generally, when you know something or have a pretty good sense that something is going to be done and so it's probable, and you can put an estimate on it.

約翰，我是查理。我想我描述它的方式是，我的意思是，就像我認為你們都知道關於什麼時候累積事物的會計規則很清楚，一般來說，當你知道某事或對某事有很好的感覺時要做，所以它是可能的，你可以對它進行估計。

And so as we've said, we've tried to be very, very transparent that there -- that we do have things that will be lumpy, that could be significant. And it's in our best interest to get as much behind us as quickly as we possibly can. It's what we've been trying to do, both with our work, but also the financial impact of these things, and that's what you're seeing in the quarter.

正如我們所說，我們努力做到非常非常透明——我們確實有一些混亂的、可能很重要的事情。盡可能快地支持我們符合我們的最大利益。這是我們一直在努力做的事情，既包括我們的工作，也包括這些事情的財務影響，這就是你在本季度看到的。

Okay. And then maybe, Mike, I could follow up on the non-op expense outlook for $12.3 billion in the fourth quarter slides up from the $12.1 billion this quarter. Maybe just some context of what's driving that? Is it seasonality? And then can we think of that jumping off point of the fourth quarter as the beginning of annualizing that for next year? And what would be the -- roughly, the puts and takes for thinking about next year from the fourth quarter?

好的。然後，邁克，也許我可以跟進第四季度的非運營支出前景，從本季度的 121 億美元下滑至 123 億美元。也許只是驅動它的一些背景？是季節性的嗎？然後我們是否可以將第四季度的起點視為明年年度化的開始？從第四季度開始考慮明年的投入和回報會是什麼？

Yes. No, thanks, John. And I think when you think about the change from third quarter to fourth quarter, it really is just some seasonal things. If you go back over a long period of time, you just see year-end accruals related to a bunch of different items that sort of end up in the fourth quarter, and so there's no story there other than that. I think we continue to be on track on the efficiency work that we laid out at the beginning of the year, and so you'll see some of that come through those numbers as well in there.

是的。不，謝謝，約翰。而且我認為當您考慮從第三季度到第四季度的變化時，這實際上只是一些季節性的事情。如果您回顧很長一段時間，您只會看到與一系列不同項目相關的年終應計項目最終在第四季度結束，因此除此之外沒有其他故事。我認為我們在今年年初制定的效率工作上繼續走上正軌，所以你會看到其中一些來自這些數字。

As it relates to 2023, as Charlie said in his remarks, we'll lay that out in more detail in January.

正如查理在講話中所說，因為它與 2023 年有關，我們將在 1 月份更詳細地闡述這一點。

Okay. Maybe a broader comment just on efficiency and where you are relative to your longer-term targets?

好的。也許更廣泛的評論只是關於效率以及您相對於長期目標的位置？

Yes. No, I think we're right on track on the plan that we laid out, John. And we said we would deliver about $3.3 billion of impact in 2022, and that's -- we're on track to do that.

是的。不，我認為我們正在按照我們制定的計劃進行，約翰。我們說過，我們將在 2022 年產生約 33 億美元的影響，這就是 - 我們正在努力做到這一點。

As we -- as Charlie and I both said a number of times, we're not done, and I think there's still more opportunity. And we're going through those conversations as we go through our budget process now, and continuing to unpick the onion around where there's more opportunity. So -- so I think those -- that program will continue to evolve, but we still feel we've got more opportunity to drive incremental efficiency, and we're on track for the things we laid out.

正如我們 - 正如查理和我多次說過的那樣，我們還沒有完成，我認為還有更多的機會。在我們現在進行預算流程時，我們正在進行這些對話，並繼續在有更多機會的地方挑選洋蔥。所以 - 所以我認為那些 - 該計劃將繼續發展，但我們仍然覺得我們有更多的機會來提高效率，我們正在為我們制定的事情走上正軌。

And John, the only thing I would add, because I know it's on a lot of people's minds, is that -- I mean, from our standpoint, there's nothing new in our thinking from what we've talked about last quarter, both in terms of where the opportunities are and how we're thinking about the future. And we just do think that it makes sense when we get to the end of next quarter, when we talk about our path to a 15% sustainable through different cycles, ROTCE, that's also an opportunity to talk more specifically about expenses and how that fits in, including what it looks like for next year. And so by that point, we will have finished our budget process. We'll understand all the puts and takes, and be in a really good position to talk about it.

約翰，我唯一要補充的是，因為我知道很多人都在想，那就是——我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，從我們上個季度討論的內容來看，我們的想法沒有什麼新的東西，無論是在機會在哪里以及我們如何看待未來。而且我們確實認為，當我們到下個季度末時，當我們談論通過不同周期實現 15% 可持續發展的道路時，ROTCE 是有意義的，這也是一個更具體地討論費用以及如何適應的機會，包括明年的樣子。因此，到那時，我們將完成我們的預算流程。我們將了解所有的看跌期權，並且處於一個非常好的位置來談論它。

The next question will come from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

I guess I wanted to ask broadly on NII. Once the Fed stops raising rates, can you sort of discuss broadly how and for how long you could maintain positive NII momentum?

我想我想廣泛地詢問 NII。一旦美聯儲停止加息，你能否廣泛討論如何以及如何保持積極的 NII 勢頭？

Well, Scott, I think there are a lot that needs to play out for us to answer that with any degree of accuracy, right, in terms of what we're seeing in the economy, loan growth, what's happening with deposits and so forth. But the only thing I would point out that you do need to keep in mind as you think about it is there will be a lag on deposit pricing, and that happens in every cycle. It happened in the last cycle and will happen again here. Once the Fed stops raising rates, you will see a lag before deposit pricing stops going up, and that's just normal and to be expected.

好吧，斯科特，我認為我們需要做很多事情才能以任何程度的準確度回答這個問題，對，就我們在經濟中看到的情況、貸款增長、存款情況等等而言.但我要指出的唯一一點是，您在考慮時確實需要牢記的是，存款定價會有滯後，而且每個週期都會發生這種情況。它發生在上一個週期，並將在這裡再次發生。一旦美聯儲停止加息，您將看到存款價格停止上漲之前的滯後時間，這是正常的，也是意料之中的。

As it relates to overall NII at that point, I think there are a lot of what-ifs that need to, like, go into that scenario. And as we all have seen, even over the last few days, some of those expectations continue to evolve. So -- but I would keep in mind as you think about that, the deposit pricing lag.

因為它與當時的整體 NII 相關，我認為有很多假設需要，比如，進入那個場景。正如我們都看到的那樣，即使在過去的幾天裡，其中一些期望仍在繼續發展。所以 - 但當你想到這一點時，我會記住，存款定價滯後。

Yes. Okay. Makes sense.

是的。好的。說得通。

And just returning to the operating losses for a second, just to help put the $2 billion in third quarter charges in context. Just I guess, given the magnitude of charges that Wells had already taken, what -- at this point, what is pushing those losses so high? I mean, what could keep them high going forward? And I guess I ask it within the backdrop of I know, like, you guys weren't really there when these issues took place. But just given how high they've been for so many years, just curious, like, what's keeping them at such a level?

只是回到運營虧損一秒鐘，只是為了幫助將第三季度的 20 億美元費用放在上下文中。只是我猜，考慮到威爾斯已經承擔的費用，是什麼 - 在這一點上，是什麼將這些損失推到如此之高？我的意思是，什麼能讓他們保持高位？我想我是在我知道的背景下問這個問題的，比如，當這些問題發生時，你們並不真正在場。但是考慮到他們這麼多年來的水平有多高，只是好奇，是什麼讓他們保持這樣的水平？

Yes. Scott, this is Charlie. I'll take a shot at it, and Mike, feel free to pipe in. Listen, I think, again, if you go through things that we've said in the past and go through our disclosures, we still have open regulatory matters that do relate to the past. We do have litigation that relates to a series of those things, which we do cover a lot of it in our disclosures.

是的。斯科特，這是查理。我會試一試，邁克，請隨意插嘴。聽著，我想，再一次，如果你仔細閱讀我們過去說過的事情並通過我們的披露，我們仍然有公開的監管事項確實與過去有關。我們確實有涉及一系列這些事情的訴訟，我們在披露中確實涵蓋了很多。

And the other thing which I just -- as we continue to make progress and move forward and build the control environment, we do find things ourselves that do relate to the environment that we've had in the past, and those things have to be remediated. So as I've said earlier, we would like to get both -- just both operationally and financially, these things done as quickly as we can. The accounting rules dictate on when you -- whether it's appropriate to take the charges, and we just, again, want to try and be as clear as we can that we're not surprised. I mean, when I say not surprised, we don't like the charge for sure. But it is just the reality of the position that we're in to get these things behind us, and try to be clear in the remarks that this isn't the end of it. But we would like to move as quickly as we can on everything that's remaining to get behind us.

我剛才提到的另一件事——隨著我們繼續取得進展並向前推進並建立控制環境，我們自己確實發現了與我們過去所擁有的環境相關的東西，而這些東西必須是補救。因此，正如我之前所說，我們希望在運營和財務上都盡快完成這些事情。會計規則規定了您何時 - 是否適合收取費用，我們只是想再次嘗試盡可能清楚地表明我們並不感到驚訝。我的意思是，當我說不感到驚訝時，我們肯定不喜歡收費。但這只是我們所處位置的現實，我們將這些事情拋在腦後，並試圖在評論中明確表示這不是結束。但我們希望盡快採取行動，處理剩下的一切。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add 1 thing overall. And I think even with these costs and the charges, we're continuing to make sure that we invest in the underlying businesses, too. I think Charlie highlighted a little bit of that in his remarks, but we've got to keep making sure that we're adding people where we need to, we're building out the capabilities where we need to. And we've talked about some of those opportunities in the past, but we are also doing that as well as executing on the efficiency agenda to make sure the earnings capacity of the company continues to get better.

是的。也許我會總體上添加 1 件事。而且我認為即使有這些成本和費用，我們也會繼續確保我們投資於基礎業務。我認為查理在他的講話中強調了一點，但我們必須繼續確保我們在需要的地方增加人員，在需要的地方建立能力。我們過去曾討論過其中的一些機會，但我們也在這樣做，並執行效率議程，以確保公司的盈利能力繼續提高。

The next question will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Charlie and Mike. Charlie, I want to ask you a follow-up on your comments about protecting your capital in an uncertain environment. Going back to the CCAR, when you correctly stated you've got -- you've got a lot of excess room, a lot of flexibility. Just wondering how you expect that CET1 to traject relative to where you want to keep it? And what does that mean, in this environment, for the prospects of doing share repurchase? Or do you just -- is it a build in, just keep it and be protected environment?

查理和邁克。查理，我想請你跟進你關於在不確定的環境中保護你的資本的評論。回到 CCAR，當你正確地陳述你有 - 你有很多多餘的空間，很多靈活性。只是想知道您希望 CET1 如何相對於您想要保留它的位置進行軌跡？在這種環境下，這對股票回購的前景意味著什麼？還是您只是-它是內置的，只是保留它並受到保護的環境？

Thank you. Maybe I'll start, Ken, and then Charlie can add anything. I think our thinking hasn't changed much since last quarter. We don't feel like we need to build from here. As you know, we've got about 110 basis points of cushion over our reg minimum and buffers together. And I think as you sort of look at the environment we're in, we just -- we want to be -- continue to be prudent about how and when do we do buybacks.

謝謝你。也許我會開始，肯，然後查理可以添加任何內容。我認為我們的想法自上個季度以來沒有太大變化。我們覺得我們不需要從這裡建造。如您所知，我們在我們的最低註冊和緩衝基礎上提供了大約 110 個基點的緩衝。我認為，當你看看我們所處的環境時，我們只是——我們想成為——繼續對我們如何以及何時進行回購持謹慎態度。

I think even if you think about the third quarter and look at the rate volatility we saw in the last 3 weeks of the quarter, and even in the last number of days of the fourth quarter now in the beginning, we've seen quite a bit of volatility happening. And so it's just all of those things that go into the calculus we do every quarter to look at where the risks and opportunities are, and make sure that we're just being smart about managing it.

我認為，即使您考慮第三季度並查看我們在該季度最後 3 週看到的利率波動，甚至在第四季度的最後幾天現在開始時，我們也看到了相當大的波動。有點波動發生。因此，我們每個季度都會進行微積分，以查看風險和機遇在哪裡，並確保我們在管理它方面做得很聰明。

And the only thing I would add is I think, as Mike said, we feel very good about the growing earnings capacity of the company. And certainly, as we sit and look forward based upon what we actually see, we feel very good about the position that we're in.

我唯一要補充的是，正如邁克所說，我們對公司不斷增長的盈利能力感到非常滿意。當然，當我們坐下來根據我們實際看到的東西向前看時，我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。

We just also -- and in the most comments, trying to point out that when it comes to managing capital, we should be extremely conscious of what the risks are that are around us. There are swings in AOCI that have impacted many of us. There are these geopolitical risks out there which something could trigger something, which could ultimately have a broader impact on the economy.

我們只是——而且在大多數評論中，試圖指出，在管理資本時，我們應該非常清楚我們周圍的風險是什麼。 AOCI 的波動影響了我們中的許多人。存在這些地緣政治風險，某些事情可能會引發某些事情，最終可能對經濟產生更廣泛的影響。

And those are all reasons just, given where we sit today, to be more conservative on capital rather than less conservative. And so a combination of those things with our own issues just lead us to say let's just see how those things play out. And that, for this environment that we're in, is probably the best use of that capital.

鑑於我們今天所處的位置，這些都是在資本上更加保守而不是不那麼保守的原因。因此，將這些事情與我們自己的問題結合起來，只會讓我們說讓我們看看這些事情是如何發展的。而且，對於我們所處的這種環境，這可能是對資本的最佳利用。

Yes. And a follow-up just in terms of other uses of that capital, just in question. You did build the reserve a little bit this quarter and alluded to the potential for a greater uncertainty. Just -- can you help us understand just where you live now in a scenario weightings in terms of your reserve?

是的。以及就該資本的其他用途而言的後續行動，只是有問題。您確實在本季度稍微建立了儲備，並暗示了更大不確定性的可能性。只是 - 你能幫助我們了解你現在居住的地方在你的儲備方面的情景權重嗎？

And Charlie, your point in your prepared remarks is just things might turn, but it's just unclear to say how. So how do you contemplate, how do we get a better sense of what that might mean for reserves, and how your view on potential losses has changed?

查理，你在準備好的評論中的觀點是事情可能會發生變化，但目前還不清楚如何說。那麼您如何思考，我們如何更好地了解這對儲備可能意味著什麼，以及您對潛在損失的看法發生了怎樣的變化？

That's a hard one to answer. So when we set our -- when we go through the process of set reserves, I think we do what everyone else does with the CECL calculations, which is we have a series of scenarios that we look at that are economically-driven based upon economists' view of what will happen to a series of variables that'll impact our credit.

這是一個很難回答的問題。因此，當我們設定我們的 - 當我們完成設定儲備的過程時，我認為我們會做其他人對 CECL 計算所做的事情，即我們有一系列基於經濟學家的經濟驅動的情景' 對影響我們信用的一系列變量的看法。

We then go through and figure out what we think the right weighting is for those, depending on as we sit here in the environment, and then models produce a bunch of results. So there just -- there's so many factors that go into it. There's a lot of science behind it, but there's also a judgment that sits on top of it relative to how you weigh these things and whether the models are ultimately right.

然後，我們根據我們在環境中所處的環境，確定我們認為正確的權重，然後模型會產生一堆結果。所以只是 - 有很多因素會影響它。它背後有很多科學依據，但也有一個關於你如何權衡這些事情以及模型最終是否正確的判斷。

We think that, on a relative basis, just the way we think about things, to the extent you can build, you'd be conservative, you're trying to be. But it's got to be fairly formulaically-driven. And I would say as we sit here today, we're not assuming -- let me say it differently. I think the comments that we're making about the risks in the environment factor into how we weigh the different scenarios, and so we do have weightings to the different downside scenarios. And I think that's as much as we'd say.

我們認為，在相對的基礎上，就像我們思考事物的方式一樣，在你可以建立的範圍內，你會變得保守，你正在努力做到。但它必須是相當公式化的驅動。我想說，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們不是在假設——讓我換種說法。我認為我們對環境風險所做的評論會影響我們如何權衡不同的情景，因此我們確實對不同的下行情景進行了加權。我認為這和我們所說的一樣多。

And maybe I'll just add, we've said this now for the last couple of quarters, we've had a pretty significant weighting on the downside scenarios for a while and haven't changed that. I think you -- if you look at what we've built over the -- during COVID, I guess, a couple of years ago now. Relative to where we are today, we haven't released all of that build that happened. And so all of what Charlie talked about goes into the conversation. And so at this point, we still feel very comfortable with where we are.

也許我會補充一點，在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經說過這一點，一段時間以來，我們對下行情景有相當大的權重，並且沒有改變這一點。我想你 - 如果你看看我們在 COVID 期間所建立的東西，我猜是幾年前的現在。相對於我們今天的情況，我們還沒有發布所有發生的構建。所以查理談到的所有內容都進入了對話。所以在這一點上，我們仍然對我們所處的位置感到很自在。

Yes. The only thing I wanted to just be clear about that is, again, we try and be -- and you have to be forward-looking, and so we try to be very realistic about what potential outcomes are. But at the same time, if our view deteriorates on the level of risk out there, that could change.

是的。我唯一想明確的一點是，我們再次嘗試成為 - 你必須具有前瞻性，因此我們試圖對潛在的結果非常現實。但與此同時，如果我們對風險水平的看法惡化，情況可能會發生變化。

And so getting back to the capital comment, I do think it's kind of weird that this all runs through the income statement. And for that level, it's hard to predict. From our perspective, we do have to -- the way we think about reserving and the way we think about capital are very much the same.

所以回到資本評論，我確實認為這一切都貫穿損益表有點奇怪。對於那個級別，很難預測。從我們的角度來看，我們確實必須——我們對儲備的思考方式和我們對資本的思考方式非常相似。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just a quick follow-up around credit. I think from a fundamental standpoint, one, are there any areas in particular -- I think you've talked about seeing some weakness in auto lending in the past. Are there any areas within the portfolio, seeing any signs of crack on credit or where you're being a little bit more careful in extending new lending?

我想只是對信貸的快速跟進。我認為從基本的角度來看，有沒有特別的領域——我想你曾經談到過看到汽車貸款的一些弱點。投資組合中是否有任何領域出現信貸破裂跡象，或者您在擴大新貸款方面更加謹慎？

And also, if -- Charlie or Mike, if you can talk about just your exposure within the C&I book to financial sponsors, how -- your comfort level around that book, and whether any of that comes back to kind of create some credit volatility over the coming quarters?

而且，如果——查理或邁克，如果你能談談你在 C&I 書中與金融贊助商的接觸，如何——你對那本書的舒適程度，以及其中任何一個是否會導致一些信用波動在未來幾個季度？

Sure. Maybe I'll -- - I think I'll start on the last piece. I think you're referring to leverage finance bridge, the bridge book. It's very immaterial in terms of any impact this quarter, so nothing -- no story there in terms of anything significant in the quarter.

當然。也許我會——我想我會從最後一塊開始。我想你指的是槓桿融資橋，橋本。就本季度的任何影響而言，這都是非常無關緊要的，所以沒有什麼——就本季度的任何重大事件而言，沒有任何故事。

As it relates a little bit more broadly on credit, for the most part, the portfolios are performing really well, right? And if you go look in the commercial bank, customers are still in really good shape on average. Same thing in the corporate investment bank.

由於它與信貸相關的範圍更廣，因此在大多數情況下，投資組合的表現非常好，對吧？如果你去商業銀行看看，客戶的平均狀況仍然很好。企業投資銀行也是如此。

On the consumer side, Charlie pointed out a lot of health indicators still look really good. We're not seeing systematic stress. You're certainly seeing a little bit more stress on the lower end, wealth spectrum, which is in a big part of the portfolio for us. And so overall, so far, so good in terms of the performance to date.

在消費者方面，查理指出很多健康指標看起來仍然非常好。我們沒有看到系統性壓力。您肯定會在低端財富譜上看到更多壓力，這對我們來說是投資組合的很大一部分。總的來說，到目前為止，迄今為止的表現非常好。

I would say, Ebrahim, that we're -- we spend a lot of time on the wholesale side looking at inflation-sensitive industries. As I mentioned in my remarks and just try and get ahead where we can. We don't see problems, but we're just trying to be very, very forward-looking.

易卜拉欣，我想說的是，我們在批發方面花了很多時間來研究對通脹敏感的行業。正如我在講話中提到的那樣，試著在我們能做到的地方取得成功。我們沒有看到問題，但我們只是試圖非常非常具有前瞻性。

And on the consumer side, we're just -- we're digging. We're digging through all of the information that we have to look for signs of stress. I think if you were to change the scale and, like, load the scales up significantly, you start to see very, very small impact on some payment rates. But we saw impacts to the lower-end consumers several quarters ago, and those haven't progressed as quickly as we would have thought.

在消費者方面，我們只是 - 我們正在挖掘。我們正在挖掘所有必須尋找壓力跡象的信息。我認為，如果你要改變規模，比如大幅增加規模，你會開始看到對某些支付率的影響非常非常小。但我們在幾個季度前就看到了對低端消費者的影響，而這些影響並沒有我們想像的那麼快。

So again, it's just -- we don't have our heads in the sand. We sit here and we've listened to the Fed and take them at their word, and what they're doing is extremely powerful. And so things will slow, but we're just -- we're trying to be prudent.

再說一次，這只是 - 我們沒有把頭埋在沙子裡。我們坐在這裡，我們聽取了美聯儲的意見並相信他們的話，他們正在做的事情非常強大。所以事情會放緩，但我們只是 - 我們正在努力保持謹慎。

And the only -- and the last thing I would just say is in some of our products, I would say, we're tightening up on the edges. Again, just to be prudent, some of the higher risk categories that have multiple risk layers to them. Not a big part of our production in any of our products, but just trying to be smart relative to who could be impacted. But at the same time, continuing to be in the markets and providing credit.

我要說的唯一——也是最後一件事是在我們的一些產品中，我想說，我們正在收緊邊緣。同樣，為了謹慎起見，一些具有多個風險層的較高風險類別。在我們的任何產品中都不是我們生產的重要組成部分，但只是試圖對可能受到影響的人保持聰明。但與此同時，繼續進入市場並提供信貸。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up, Mike. What I was referring to on the C&I book is the disclosures around exposure to financials, except ex-banks. And so when I'm thinking about like, asset management, real estate finance, anything there that we should worry about in a world where there are some uncertainty around how private equity holds up in this environment of higher rates? That's what I was sort of getting at.

知道了。邁克，只是快速跟進。我在 C&I 書中指的是有關金融風險敞口的披露，但前銀行除外。因此，當我考慮資產管理、房地產金融等問題時，在這個高利率環境下私募股權如何保持存在一些不確定性的世界中，我們應該擔心的任何事情？這就是我的意思。

Sorry. Yes. So we -- if you look at the Q, there's some breakdown of those exposures, and you can see that. And those -- at this point, those are all performing really well, both in the asset-backed finance space as well as the subscription finance space. And so nothing to call out.

對不起。是的。所以我們 - 如果你看一下 Q，就會發現這些風險的一些細分，你可以看到這一點。而那些——在這一點上，它們在資產支持的金融領域和訂閱金融領域都表現得非常好。所以沒什麼好說的。

The next question will come from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On -- I know you mentioned that you still see substantial opportunity on the efficiency side for improvement. And on that end, can you talk about the gross cost saves? I know you increased the target from $8 billion to $10 billion this year, early this year in January. Can you talk about the potential that could that number move higher yet again as your -- as you look at all the opportunities in front of you?

關於——我知道你提到你仍然看到在效率方面有很大的改進機會。最後，您能談談節省的總成本嗎？我知道你今年年初將目標從 80 億美元提高到 100 億美元。當你看到你面前的所有機會時，你能談談這個數字可能再次上升的潛力嗎？

Yes, John. Look, I'm sure we'll provide more guidance on that or more disclosure on that in January, so I'll leave any specific remarks there. But I'd just go back to, like, what we've been saying. We're not done on the efficiency journey. As we execute on the stuff that's in front of us, we continue to find more opportunity, really, across most parts of the company, and so I think that'll continue to evolve.

是的，約翰。聽著，我相信我們會在 1 月份就此提供更多指導或更多披露，所以我會在那裡留下任何具體評論。但我會回到我們一直在說的內容。我們的效率之旅還沒有結束。當我們執行擺在我們面前的東西時，我們會繼續在公司的大部分部門尋找更多機會，所以我認為這將繼續發展。

Okay, Mike. And then in terms of the mortgage expectation, I mean, you indicated that you could see some incremental downside pressure there. Can you maybe help us size up the magnitude that you could see in the fourth quarter in terms of the incremental decline?

好的，邁克。然後就抵押貸款預期而言，我的意思是，您表示您可能會看到一些增量下行壓力。您能否幫助我們評估您在第四季度看到的增量下降幅度？

Yes. Well, I mean, if you look at the -- in the Consumer Banking and Lending segment, we've got the mortgage banking income there. It's only a little over a $200 million for the quarter. So even a relatively substantial percentage decline is a pretty small dollar decline these days given the run rate.

是的。好吧，我的意思是，如果你看一下 - 在個人銀行和貸款領域，我們在那裡獲得了抵押銀行收入。本季度僅略高於 2 億美元。因此，考慮到運行率，即使是相對較大的百分比下降現在也是相當小的美元下降。

But I think if you look at what happened this quarter, we probably came in a little bit better than what we guided in July. Spreads were a little bit better in August than what we had forecasted, but they came back down in September, and so we would expect that to continue. So while I think there could be some downside there, it's off a pretty low run rate at this point.

但我認為，如果你看看本季度發生的事情，我們可能會比 7 月份的指導要好一些。 8 月份的價差比我們預測的要好一些，但在 9 月份又回落，因此我們預計這種情況會持續下去。因此，雖然我認為那裡可能存在一些不利因素，但目前的運行率相當低。

Got it. Okay. And then just one more follow-up on the balance sheet, and sorry if you had pointed to this already. But in terms of the deposit -- the pressure on deposit balances, can you talk about maybe how we should think about potential incremental declines in deposits as we see the impacts of the rate hikes continue to take hold?

知道了。好的。然後在資產負債表上再做一次後續行動，如果你已經指出這一點，我很抱歉。但是在存款方面——存款餘額的壓力，你能談談我們應該如何看待存款的潛在增量下降，因為我們看到加息的影響繼續存在？

Well, I think -- one, I think you're going to continue to see pricing increase from here, as we have said now for a while. And so you'll see pricing go up as rates continue to increase.

好吧，我認為 - 一，我認為您將繼續看到價格上漲，正如我們現在所說的那樣。因此，隨著費率的繼續上漲，您會看到價格上漲。

And then on the deposit side, all of it's somewhat natural, right, given the environment we're in. So as I pointed out in my remarks in the Wealth -- we saw the biggest dollar decline in our Wealth business, which is clients moving to higher-yielding cash alternatives. Now we're also seeing, more broadly, clients move into cash there in a couple of areas where we've seen cash alternatives grow substantially, not just as they migrate away from deposits. So that's a piece of it.

然後在存款方面，考慮到我們所處的環境，這一切都是自然的，對。所以正如我在《財富》雜誌上的評論中指出的那樣——我們看到我們的財富業務中美元跌幅最大，即客戶轉向收益更高的現金替代品。現在我們還看到，更廣泛地說，客戶在我們看到現金替代品大幅增長的幾個領域轉移到現金，而不僅僅是因為他們從存款轉移。所以這是其中的一部分。

And then I think on the rest of the book, it's -- what we're seeing on the consumer side is a lot of spending. Not as much people much -- migrating away from us. Or maybe there's a little bit of that, but it's really people out there spending.

然後我認為在本書的其餘部分，我們在消費者方面看到的是大量支出。沒有那麼多人——遠離我們。或者也許有一點點，但確實是人們在那裡消費。

And then on the Corporate Investment bank, which are going to be some of your most rate-sensitive deposits, we're seeing the activity we expected to see, which is there are some clients moving into the other alternatives, but we still see many clients staying in cash with us as well. So I would expect that there's going to be -- there could be some further declines as we go.

然後在企業投資銀行，這將是您對利率最敏感的一些存款，我們看到了我們預期會看到的活動，即有一些客戶轉向其他選擇，但我們仍然看到很多客戶也與我們保持現金聯繫。所以我預計會有 - 隨著我們的進展可能會有一些進一步的下降。

The next question comes from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Just another question on expenses, if I may.

如果可以的話，只是關於費用的另一個問題。

I guess the market -- what the market is telling us today is that so long as the core expenses are as expected, the market seems to be looking through higher op losses. And as we look forward, and Charlie and Mike, as you think about the budgeting process for next year, I think the Street expects operating losses to be improving to be a strong contributor to expense improvements going forward, even off of that original $1.3 billion expectation. I'm just wondering, as you think about the budgeting, do you continue to contemplate adjustments on the core? Meaning, cutting core...

我猜市場——今天市場告訴我們的是，只要核心費用符合預期，市場似乎正在經歷更高的運營損失。正如我們期待的那樣，查理和邁克，當你考慮明年的預算流程時，我認為華爾街預計運營虧損將會改善，這將成為未來支出改善的重要貢獻者，即使在最初的 13 億美元之外期待。我只是想知道，當您考慮預算時，您是否繼續考慮對核心進行調整？意思是切割核心...

Were you talking operating losses or expenses, excluding operating losses, Erika?

Erika，您是在談論運營虧損或費用，不包括運營虧損？

I meant expenses, excluding operating losses. I think your investors are expecting op losses to be down meaningfully even from that $1.3 billion original number. I'm wondering if you're continuing to contemplate on the core?

我的意思是費用，不包括運營損失。我認為您的投資者預計即使從最初的 13 億美元的數字來看，運營損失也會顯著下降。我想知道你是否繼續考慮核心？

Well, let me take a shot at it. I would say, again, first of all, I just want to remind you that we said in the prepared comments that we just want to be as transparent as we can, that we would -- that it's quite possible. And we said, I think, likely, highly likely that we'll have more significant -- potentially significant losses related to some of these historical matters. So we just want that to be on the radar screen.

好吧，讓我試一試。我想說，首先，我只想提醒大家，我們在準備好的評論中說過，我們只是希望盡可能透明，我們會——這很有可能。我們說，我認為，很可能，我們很可能會遭受與其中一些歷史事件相關的更重大的 - 潛在的重大損失。所以我們只是希望它出現在雷達屏幕上。

No question, excluding that, our ops losses are still high. What I would just encourage people to think about is I personally wouldn't model them coming down until we actually see them coming down. Because, again, as we go through and build the control environment, we're going to find things and we need to get that behind us. And I think that should be very much of a of a showy proposition because, again, we know what you know and we'll see it when it happens. And we've done a little bit of advanced notice because we see all the work that we're doing, but we continue need to work through those things.

毫無疑問，除此之外，我們的運營損失仍然很高。我只是鼓勵人們思考的是，在我們真正看到它們下降之前，我個人不會對它們進行建模。因為，再一次，當我們經歷和構建控制環境時，我們會發現一些東西，我們需要把它放在我們身後。而且我認為這應該是一個非常華麗的提議，因為我們再次知道你所知道的，當它發生時我們會看到它。我們已經做了一些提前通知，因為我們看到了我們正在做的所有工作，但我們仍然需要完成這些工作。

And on the rest of op expenses, as we said, we're going to provide more specific guidance for that in the fourth quarter relative to next year, and also talk about how it plays into 15% sustainable ROTCE.

正如我們所說，關於其他運營費用，我們將在第四季度相對於明年提供更具體的指導，並討論它如何影響 15% 的可持續 ROTCE。

And our budget, I also want to make the point, because I think this is important to everyone. On the one hand, everyone wants -- we all want our expenses to go down because of what it does to earnings. But we are extremely -- I mean, even -- we live in these 2 worlds, which is where we're rectifying these issues from the past, which are both building the risk and control work that's necessary and all the regulatory work and fixing the expense structure. But we also very much have no intention of falling behind in our businesses. And so the 2 paths of conversations that we have through the budget process is what are we investing in and where are we going to see efficiencies. And we obviously have to make sure that we're getting the appropriate amount from each of those categories.

還有我們的預算，我也想說明這一點，因為我認為這對每個人都很重要。一方面，每個人都希望——我們都希望我們的開支因為它對收入的影響而下降。但我們非常 - 我的意思是，甚至 - 我們生活在這兩個世界中，我們正在糾正過去的這些問題，這既是建立必要的風險和控制工作，也是所有監管工作和修復費用結構。但我們也非常無意在業務上落後。因此，我們通過預算流程進行的兩條對話路徑是我們在投資什麼以及我們將在哪裡看到效率。我們顯然必須確保我們從每個類別中獲得適當的數量。

Overall, there's no question that our efficiency ratios are not where they want them to be. So directionally, that just tells you how we're thinking about how -- where that goes. But when we finish the process, we'll provide more clarity, but just know that we're thinking about both sides of that equation. But understand what -- where we should be more long term.

總的來說，毫無疑問，我們的效率比沒有達到他們想要的水平。所以在方向上，這只是告訴你我們是如何考慮如何——去哪裡的。但是當我們完成這個過程時，我們會提供更多的清晰度，但要知道我們正在考慮這個等式的兩邊。但要明白什麼——我們應該在哪裡更長期。

No, I think that makes sense. And I think the conversation with investors, Charlie, is sort of the next step for Wells Fargo in terms of accelerated investment spend, right, efficiencies, obviously, a ratio. So that makes sense.

不，我認為這是有道理的。而且我認為與投資者查理的對話是富國銀行在加速投資支出方面的下一步，對，效率，顯然是一個比率。所以這是有道理的。

And my follow-up question maybe for you, Mike. So I'm squeezing 2 parts in my second question. The first is, could you tell us what unemployment ratio, your ACL ratio today contemplates? And second, if you could just give a comment on where you see deposit betas trending relative to your previous expectation, now that we have added 100 basis points onto the expectation for Fed funds since we've talked to you last in the quarterly earnings setting?

邁克，我的後續問題可能是給你的。所以我在第二個問題中擠壓了兩個部分。首先是，你能告訴我們你今天考慮的失業率是多少嗎？其次，如果您可以就您看到的存款貝塔相對於您之前的預期的趨勢發表評論，自從我們上次在季度收益設置中與您交談以來，我們已經在聯邦基金的預期上增加了 100 個基點?

Yes. Well, let me take the first one first.

是的。好吧，讓我先拿第一個。

So if you look at our Q, we do give you a kind of weighted blend of the economic scenarios and we give you a few data points, unemployment rate's one of them. As of the end of June, the weighted -- thanks for naming the right one. The weighted number for the end of this year was 4.1%, growing to 6% at the end of 2023. And we'll update that based on the third quarter and the Q when we get there.

因此，如果您查看我們的 Q，我們確實為您提供了一種經濟情景的加權混合，我們為您提供了一些數據點，失業率就是其中之一。截至 6 月底，加權 - 感謝您命名正確的。今年年底的加權數字為 4.1%，到 2023 年底增長到 6%。當我們到達那裡時，我們將根據第三季度和 Q 進行更新。

On the second part of the question, what was the second -- can you just repeat the second part? I'm so sorry about that. Sorry.

關於問題的第二部分，第二部分是什麼——你能重複第二部分嗎？我對此感到非常抱歉。對不起。

Deposit betas, has your thinking on, still, these deposit betas changed as we contemplate 2023, given that we added 100 basis points of the Fed's funds outlook since we spoke to you last in this quarterly earnings setting?

存款貝塔值，鑑於我們上次在本季度收益環境中與您交談以來我們增加了 100 個基點的美聯儲基金前景，您是否仍然認為這些存款貝塔值在我們考慮 2023 年時發生了變化？

Well, I think so far, the betas have played out the way we expected them to do at this point in the cycle. And I think as rates continue to go up, we would expect them to increase, and that was part of the playbook and the analysis we had done going into the environment. And so -- and that's to be expected, right? And if rates are going to go up even higher than we originally thought, then the betas will continue to go up with that. And so I think it's largely, at this point, playing out the way we thought it would.

嗯，我認為到目前為止，測試版已經按照我們預期他們在周期中的這一點進行的方式發揮作用。我認為隨著利率繼續上升，我們預計它們會增加，這是劇本的一部分，也是我們對環境所做的分析。所以——這是意料之中的，對吧？如果利率甚至比我們最初想像的還要高，那麼貝塔值將繼續上升。所以我認為，在這一點上，主要是按照我們認為的方式進行。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you give us an update on your rate positioning, and thoughts on whether you want to lock it in the kind of rate level that we're at here, what's expected? Or how you're thinking about protecting yourselves from potentially lower rates, or what your perspective is on that?

您能否向我們提供有關您的利率定位的最新信息，以及您是否想將其鎖定在我們目前所處的那種利率水平上的想法，預期是什麼？或者您如何考慮保護自己免受潛在的較低利率的影響，或者您對此有何看法？

Yes. I mean, we still have -- we're still asset sensitive as where we stand today, and so that will continue to get the benefit as rates go up. But as you suggest, I think most banks are thinking about not just about today, but also about the other side of when rates start to peak and come back down. And I think the expectations around them have changed quite substantially. Certainly since the second quarter, but even throughout the third quarter into where we stand today, those expectations have changed a lot.

是的。我的意思是，我們仍然有——我們仍然像今天一樣對資產敏感，因此隨著利率的上升，這將繼續受益。但正如你所建議的，我認為大多數銀行不僅在考慮今天，還在考慮利率何時開始見頂並回落的另一面。我認為他們周圍的期望已經發生了很大變化。當然，自第二季度以來，但即使在整個第三季度到我們今天所處的位置，這些預期也發生了很大變化。

So -- so I'd say at this point, we are spending a lot of time thinking about that question and how we want to protect part of the balance sheet from when rates would start to decline. But we haven't done anything in a material way at this point.

所以 - 所以我現在要說的是，我們正在花費大量時間思考這個問題以及我們希望如何保護資產負債表的一部分免受利率開始下降的影響。但在這一點上，我們還沒有做任何實質性的事情。

The next question will come from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Two questions. One, on loans, how should we think about how much more room there is for you to grow loans within the context of the asset cap, realizing that TLAC there is a constraint so you can't get to maybe the level as a percentage of total assets or total earning assets that you could before GFC? I know it's a long time ago, but I'm just trying to understand what running room you think you have in the loan book to grow that?

兩個問題。一，在貸款方面，我們應該如何考慮在資產上限的背景下，您還有多少增加貸款的空間，意識到 TLAC 存在限制，因此您可能無法達到百分比水平在全球金融危機之前，您可以使用的總資產或總收益資產？我知道那是很久以前的事了，但我只是想了解您認為您在貸款簿中還有多少空間可以發展它？

Yes. Betsy, I think as we've said I think even last quarter, we've got room to continue to grow and be there for clients. And we've got levers to pull if and when we think we need to create more capacity to do that. And so at this point, we're comfortable that we're going to be able to continue to be there for clients. And there's always discretionary stuff that you can do in certain pockets of your loan portfolio, and so I think we've got -- we feel comfortable at this point that we can still be there.

是的。 Betsy，我認為正如我們所說的那樣，即使在上個季度，我們也有繼續增長的空間並為客戶服務。如果我們認為我們需要創造更多的能力來做到這一點，我們就有了槓桿。因此，在這一點上，我們很高興能夠繼續為客戶服務。在你的貸款組合的某些口袋裡，你總是可以做一些可自由支配的事情，所以我認為我們已經 - 我們在這一點上感到很舒服，我們仍然可以在那裡。

Okay. And then separately on the AOCI [pulled apart], can you give us a sense as to what we should put in the model for how long that should take?

好的。然後分別在 AOCI [拉開]，你能告訴我們我們應該在模型中放入什麼需要多長時間嗎？

How long what part of that should take?

其中哪一部分需要多長時間？

The underwater AFS book, right? Like, if rates were flat with quarter end 3Q, you've got...

水下 AFS 書，對吧？就像，如果利率與第三季度末的季度持平，你有......

Got it. Is it the peak when do you start to accrete back the AOCI?

知道了。 AOCI 是什麼時候開始回升的高峰期？

Yes. Yes. How long does it take to accrete back AOCI?

是的。是的。恢復AOCI需要多長時間？

It takes a while. So you guys -- I think we've mentioned -- I think this came up last quarter and the expectations really haven't sort of changed much, and it will take a while to come back. It'll come slowly back year-by-year as the maturity of the bonds get shorter.

這需要一段時間。所以你們——我想我們已經提到過——我認為這是上個季度出現的，預期確實沒有太大變化，需要一段時間才能回來。隨著債券期限的縮短，它會逐年緩慢回升。

Okay. All right. No, I was just wondering, because we've seen some portfolio restructurings at other places and didn't know if you had put hedges on that would have changed the pace. Because obviously, it's meaningful to the capital outlook. So I'm just wondering if there's any color there, but I guess not. All right.

好的。好的。不，我只是想知道，因為我們已經在其他地方看到了一些投資組合重組，並且不知道您是否進行了對沖，這會改變步伐。因為很明顯，這對資本前景很有意義。所以我只是想知道那裡是否有顏色，但我想沒有。好的。

The next question comes from Charles Peabody of Portales Partners.

下一個問題來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

I wanted to follow up on the deposit beta question. As I'm sure you're aware, Treasury is talking to the TBAC committee and trying to get some advice on a treasury buyback. I was curious what your thoughts are about how that would affect liquidity flows, potentially out of money market funds into the banking system, and therefore, how that might affect your deposit beta assumptions next year.

我想跟進存款測試版問題。我相信你知道，財政部正在與 TBAC 委員會交談，並試圖就國債回購獲得一些建議。我很好奇你的想法是如何影響流動性流動，可能會從貨幣市場資金流入銀行系統，因此，這將如何影響你明年的存款貝塔假設。

I think cause an effect and how that will play into deposit betas would be a really hard question to answer. I mean, that will -- if that comes to bear, that will be one of, like, many different factors that will go into what to expect from deposit levels, and therefore, betas over time. So I wouldn't attempt to try to put some math behind that at this point.

我認為造成影響以及這將如何影響存款測試將是一個非常難以回答的問題。我的意思是，這將——如果這成為現實，那將是許多不同的因素之一，這些因素將影響存款水平的預期，因此，隨著時間的推移，貝塔值也會隨之變化。所以我不會試圖在這一點上把一些數學放在後面。

But at the very least, would you view it as a net positive? Or in isolation? Or is it a non-event in isolation?

但至少，你會認為這是一個淨積極因素嗎？還是孤立無援？或者它是孤立的非事件？

I mean, it really depends on what it is and how big in size, and so I think it could be that full range. It could be a non-event or matter. But I think until you have better clarity, it's hard to say.

我的意思是，這真的取決於它是什麼以及尺寸有多大，所以我認為它可能是全方位的。這可能是非事件或問題。但我認為，除非你有更好的清晰度，否則很難說。

It's assuming $1 trillion type of treasury buyback, which I think is the capacity they have.

它假設進行 1 萬億美元的國債回購，我認為這是他們擁有的能力。

Yes. I think it's just a -- it's a really hard question to try to put math behind at this point.

是的。我認為這只是一個——在這一點上試圖把數學拋在腦後是一個非常困難的問題。

The next question comes from Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Charlie, Mike. Charlie, I wanted to just follow up on your comment earlier about you're seeing declines in deposits before, below pre-pandemic levels in certain cohorts. Can you talk a little bit about that? What level of balances kind of cohorts are you talking about? And how much have they gone down below pre-pandemic levels?

查理，邁克。查理，我想跟進您之前的評論，即您之前看到存款下降，低於某些群體的大流行前水平。你能談談嗎？你說的是什麼級別的餘額？他們比大流行前的水平下降了多少？

Yes. I'll turn it over to Mike. But I just -- this is the same thing that we had talked about in the prior quarter where it's those that entered the pandemic with the lowest of balances to begin with, where they had balances for a period of time that remained above pre-pandemic levels, and we started to see declines ultimately in spend and deposit levels for that group now that are averaging below pre-pandemic levels. But as I said in the prepared remarks, we would have expected that. I would have expected that to exacerbate and spread, and it hasn't really. It's still a small part of our customer base.

是的。我會把它交給邁克。但我只是 - 這與我們在上一季度談到的相同，那些進入大流行的人一開始餘額最低，他們的餘額在一段時間內仍高於大流行前水平，我們開始看到該群體的支出和存款水平最終下降，現在平均低於大流行前的水平。但正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們會預料到這一點。我原以為這種情況會加劇和蔓延，但事實並非如此。它仍然是我們客戶群的一小部分。

Yes. And in fact, these are customers generally that have $500,000, $2,000 kind of average balances per month, and there's a percentage of those customers that have seen some declines. And there's also a percentage -- some of those customers that haven't, right? So it is just one of the different cohorts we've looked at. But as Charlie said, that hasn't really started to go up in higher wealth cohorts or income cohorts.

是的。事實上，這些客戶通常每月平均餘額為 500,000 美元或 2,000 美元，其中有一部分客戶的餘額有所下降。還有一個百分比——有些客戶沒有，對吧？所以它只是我們研究過的不同群體之一。但正如查理所說，這並沒有真正開始在更高的財富群體或收入群體中上升。

Okay. And that sounded, like, from your comments that decline has happened this quarter. So I guess for the group that we are seeing, does it probably gets worse as inflation remains high?

好的。從您的評論來看，這聽起來像是本季度發生了下降。所以我想對於我們所看到的群體來說，隨著通貨膨脹率居高不下，情況可能會變得更糟嗎？

No. No, this is a continuation of a trend we saw in second quarter as well. So it's not necessarily accelerating in any way, but it's a continuation of a trend we've seen now for a number of months.

不，不，這也是我們在第二季度看到的趨勢的延續。因此，它不一定以任何方式加速，但它是我們現在已經看到幾個月的趨勢的延續。

Mike, a little one for you. Card delinquencies, you gave 30 plus. Can you break that down to 30 to 89 days? Or the early delinquencies, what those did this quarter?

邁克，給你一個小傢伙。卡拖欠，你給了30加。你能把它分解成 30 到 89 天嗎？或者早期的拖欠，本季度發生了什麼？

There'll be more in the Q. I think we're back on that.

Q 中還會有更多內容。我想我們又回到了這個問題上。

Okay. You don't -- okay, the suggestion to just have it out at earnings because, obviously, given that we're starting to change environment, it's an important metric to keep an eye on.

好的。你沒有 - 好吧，建議只在收益中公佈，因為顯然，鑑於我們開始改變環境，這是一個需要關注的重要指標。

The final question for today will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

今天的最後一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Charlie. Mike, can you share with us the trends you're seeing in the commercial real estate area? You guys had very strong revenue growth, of course, in commercial real estate this quarter year-over-year. The commercial real estate mortgage balances were slightly down.

查理。 Mike，你能和我們分享一下你在商業地產領域看到的趨勢嗎？當然，你們本季度的商業房地產收入同比增長非常強勁。商業房地產抵押貸款餘額略有下降。

But we're hearing from different folks that the commercial real estate market's starting to tighten up. Banks aren't as being as aggressive in lending. Can you -- any color on the risk dynamics that you might be seeing and trends you're seeing in commercial real estate mortgage?

但我們從不同的人那裡聽說商業房地產市場開始收緊。銀行在放貸方面沒有那麼積極。你能 - 你可能看到的風險動態和你在商業房地產抵押貸款中看到的趨勢有什麼顏色嗎？

Sure. Let me start with just what's driving some of the growth you've seen, right? So balances -- loan balances are up year-to-date and year-over-year, really, driven by 2 things: growth in multifamily, so apartments, and some growth in some industrial properties. And so we still see really strong demand. I think even if you look at new housing, new multifamily housing starts, it is still growing. It hasn't really turned like single single-family homes has over the last number of months, still -- so really strong demand there.

當然。讓我從推動您所看到的一些增長的因素開始，對吧？所以餘額 - 貸款餘額從年初至今和去年同期都在上升，實際上是由兩件事推動的：多戶家庭的增長，所以公寓，以及一些工業物業的增長。所以我們仍然看到非常強勁的需求。我認為即使你看新住房，新的多戶住宅開工，它仍在增長。在過去的幾個月裡，它並沒有像單戶住宅那樣真正轉變，仍然——那裡的需求非常強勁。

I think when you look at the performance of the portfolio, some of the categories that were most impacted by the pandemic, hotels, retail, in most cases, are back. Good cash flow, values are fine, and we're seeing that hold up pretty well.

我認為，當您查看投資組合的表現時，在大多數情況下，受疫情影響最大的一些類別、酒店、零售業又回來了。良好的現金流，價值很好，我們看到它保持得很好。

You still have some forward-looking uncertainty in the office space, just given that hasn't really translated into significant stress yet because you still have long-term leases and other things. You always hear about an anecdotal issue of the property, but it has nothing systematic yet rolling through the portfolio.

你在辦公空間中仍然有一些前瞻性的不確定性，只是考慮到這還沒有真正轉化為巨大的壓力，因為你仍然有長期租約和其他東西。您總是聽到有關該物業的軼事問題，但它還沒有系統地貫穿整個投資組合。

I can't speak about what others are doing. But I think for us, you've seen good growth this year. And as you go into an uncertain environment, you're just -- you're going to try to be smart about what you put on -- new things you put on your balance sheet, and we continue to do that. But that's in the context of seeing some good growth year-to-date.

我不能談論別人在做什麼。但我認為對我們來說，今年你已經看到了良好的增長。當你進入一個不確定的環境時，你只是 - 你將嘗試對你投入的東西保持聰明 - 你在資產負債表上投入的新事物，我們將繼續這樣做。但這是在今年迄今為止看到一些良好增長的背景下。

Very good. Obviously, your guys' CET1 ratio is well above your required level, and I think you pointed out your AOCI mark drew it down by about 21 basis points. Would you guys consider repositioning the available-for-sale portfolio since you're already taking the mark through your CET1 ratio? What kind of dynamics would you need to see if that would make sense for you to do that?

很好。顯然，你們的 CET1 比率遠高於您要求的水平，我認為您指出您的 AOCI 分數將其拉低了約 21 個基點。你們是否會考慮重新定位可供出售的投資組合，因為您已經通過您的 CET1 比率取得了成績？你需要什麼樣的動力來看看這對你來說是否有意義？

You always look at different ways to optimize. We did -- we did do a little bit in the second quarter where we traded out some mortgage -- I'm blanking on the name, but some mortgage-backed securities for Ginnie Mae. You get a little better RWA treatment. So you do -- we have done some little bit of repositioning over the time, and it's something we always sort of look at and think at. But it's not something that we're contemplating in big size at this point.

您總是在尋找不同的優化方法。我們做到了——我們確實在第二季度做了一些抵押貸款交易——我不知道這個名字，但是 Ginnie Mae 的一些抵押貸款支持證券。你會得到更好的 RWA 治療。所以你做 - 我們已經做了一些重新定位隨著時間的推移，這是我們一直在關注和思考的事情。但這不是我們目前正在考慮的大尺寸。

All right. Thank you very much, everyone. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Take care.

好的。非常感謝大家。我們期待在下個季度與您交談。小心。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。