富國銀行 (WFC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call is being recorded.

歡迎並感謝您加入富國銀行 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （接線員說明）請注意今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監約翰坎貝爾。主席先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today with our CEO, Charlie Scharf; and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, who will discuss fourth quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our fourth quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com.

謝謝你。早上好。感謝您今天與我們的首席執行官 Charlie Scharf 一起參加我們的電話會議；以及我們的首席財務官 Mike Santomassimo，他將討論第四季度的業績並回答您的問題。此通話正在錄音中。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的第四季度收益材料，包括發布、財務補充和演示文稿，都可以在我們的網站 wellsfargo.com 上找到。

I'd also like to come that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings including the Form 8-K filed today, containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP final measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

我還想來，我們可能會在今天的電話會議上做出受風險和不確定因素影響的前瞻性陳述。可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有詳細說明，包括今天提交的 8-K 表格，其中包含我們的收益材料。有關所引用的任何非 GAAP 最終措施的信息，包括這些措施與 GAAP 措施的協調，也可以在我們的 SEC 文件和我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

我現在將電話轉給查理。

Thanks, John. I'll make some brief comments about our fourth quarter results, and then update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review fourth quarter results in more detail and some of our expectations for 2023 before we take your questions. Let me start with fourth quarter highlights. Our results were significantly impacted by previously disclosed operating losses, but our underlying performance reflected the continued progress we're making to improve returns.

謝謝，約翰。我將對我們第四季度的業績做一些簡短的評論，然後向您介紹我們的優先事項。然後我會把電話轉給邁克，在我們回答你的問題之前更詳細地回顧第四季度的結果以及我們對 2023 年的一些預期。讓我從第四季度的亮點開始。我們的業績受到之前披露的經營虧損的重大影響，但我們的基本業績反映了我們在提高回報方面取得的持續進展。

Rising interest rates drove strong net interest income growth. Our continued progress and our efficiency initiatives helped to drive expenses lower excluding operating losses. Loans grew in both, our commercial and consumer portfolios. And charge-offs have continued to increase but credit quality remains strong.

利率上升推動淨利息收入強勁增長。我們的持續進步和我們的效率舉措幫助降低了不包括運營損失的費用。我們的商業和消費者投資組合的貸款都有所增長。沖銷繼續增加，但信貸質量依然強勁。

Our capital levels also remained very strong. And our CET1 ratio increased to 10.6%, well above our required minimum plus buffers. We also continue to make progress on putting legacy issues behind us. Our broad reaching agreement with the CFPB in December is an important step forward that helps us resolve multiple matters, the majority of which have been outstanding for several years.

我們的資本水平也仍然非常強勁。我們的 CET1 比率增加到 10.6%，遠高於我們要求的最低加緩衝。我們還在解決遺留問題方面繼續取得進展。我們在 12 月與 CFPB 達成的廣泛協議是向前邁出的重要一步，它幫助我們解決了多項問題，其中大部分問題多年來一直懸而未決。

Over the past 3 years, we have made significant changes in the businesses referenced in the settlement. And many of the required actions were already substantially complete prior to this announcement. While our risk and regulatory work hasn't always followed a straight line and we have more to do, we've made significant progress, and we will continue to prioritize our work here. In addition to our risk and regulatory work, it's also critical for us to continue to invest in the future as we build off the great market positions we have.

在過去 3 年中，我們對和解中提及的業務進行了重大更改。在此公告之前，許多必要的行動已經基本完成。雖然我們的風險和監管工作並不總是一帆風順，我們還有更多工作要做，但我們已經取得了重大進展，我們將繼續優先考慮我們的工作。除了我們的風險和監管工作外，隨著我們建立我們擁有的巨大市場地位，繼續投資未來對我們來說也很重要。

We are confident our processes will enable us to continue to prioritize our risk and control work. At the same time, we invest in our future. And as I look back at '22, I'm enthusiastic about the progress we've made this past year and feel even better about the opportunities ahead. Let me start with the changes we've made during the year to help millions of customers avoid overdraft fees and meet short-term cash needs. These efforts included the elimination of non-sufficient funds fees and transfer fees for customers enrolled in overdraft protection, early payday making eligible direct deposits available up to 2 days early, extra day grace, giving eligible customers an extra business day to make deposits to avoid overdraft fees. And in the fourth quarter, we launched Flex Loan, a new digital-only small dollar loan that provides eligible customers convenient and affordable access to funds.

我們相信我們的流程將使我們能夠繼續優先考慮我們的風險和控制工作。同時，我們投資於我們的未來。當我回顧 22 年時，我對我們在過去一年取得的進步充滿熱情，並對未來的機遇感到更加樂觀。讓我從我們在這一年中為幫助數百萬客戶避免透支費用和滿足短期現金需求所做的改變開始。這些努力包括為參加透支保護的客戶取消資金不足的費用和轉賬費用，提早發薪日使符合條件的直接存款最多提前 2 天可用，額外的工作日寬限期，為符合條件的客戶提供額外的工作日進行存款以避免透支費。在第四季度，我們推出了 Flex Loan，這是一種新的純數字小額美元貸款，可為符合條件的客戶提供方便且負擔得起的資金獲取渠道。

Teams from across the company came together to roll out this new product in record time. The rollout has been smooth and though it's still early, customer response is exceeding our expectations. These actions build on services we've introduced over the past several years, including Clear Access Banking, our account with no overdraft fees.

來自整個公司的團隊齊心協力，以創紀錄的時間推出了這款新產品。推出很順利，雖然還早，但客戶的反應超出了我們的預期。這些行動建立在我們過去幾年推出的服務之上，包括 Clear Access Banking，我們的賬戶沒有透支費用。

We now have over 1.7 million of those accounts, up 48% from a year ago. We continue to transform the way we serve our customers by offering innovative products and solutions. We continue to improve our credit card offerings including launching 2 new cards, Wells Fargo Autograph and BILT. Our new products helped drive a 31% increase in new credit card accounts in 2022, while we continued to maintain strong credit profiles. We launched Wells Fargo Premier, our new offering dedicated to the financial needs of affluent clients by bringing together our branch-based and wealth-based businesses, to provide a more comprehensive, relevant and integrated offering for our clients.

我們現在擁有超過 170 萬個此類帳戶，比一年前增長了 48%。我們通過提供創新的產品和解決方案，不斷改變我們為客戶服務的方式。我們繼續改進我們的信用卡產品，包括推出 2 張新卡，即 Wells Fargo Autograph 和 BILT。我們的新產品幫助推動 2022 年新信用卡賬戶增加 31%，同時我們繼續保持強勁的信用狀況。我們推出了 Wells Fargo Premier，這是我們的新產品，通過匯集我們基於分支機構和基於財富的業務，致力於滿足富裕客戶的財務需求，為我們的客戶提供更全面、相關和綜合的產品。

We continue to enhance our partnership within our commercial business to bring corporate and investment banking products such as foreign exchange and M&A advisory services to our middle-market clients. Our different approach to technology is helping us better serve our consumer and corporate clients. We rolled out our new mobile app with a simpler, more intuitive user experience, which has improved customer satisfaction. In 2022, mobile active customers grew 4% from a year ago. We launched Intuitive Investor, making it easier for customers to invest with the streamlined account opening process and a lower minimum investments and total active Intuitive Investor accounts increased 56% from a year ago.

我們繼續加強我們在商業業務中的合作夥伴關係，為我們的中間市場客戶提供外彙和併購諮詢服務等公司和投資銀行產品。我們不同的技術方法正在幫助我們更好地服務於我們的消費者和企業客戶。我們推出了具有更簡單、更直觀用戶體驗的新移動應用程序，從而提高了客戶滿意度。 2022 年，移動活躍客戶同比增長 4%。我們推出了 Intuitive Investor，通過簡化的開戶流程和更低的最低投資額讓客戶更容易進行投資，Intuitive Investor 活躍賬戶總數比一年前增加了 56%。

We completed the development of Fargo, our new AI-powered virtual assistant that provides a more personalized, convenient and simple banking experience, which is currently live for eligible employees and set to begin rolling out to customers early this year. Last month, we announced Vantage, our new enhanced digital experience for our commercial and corporate clients. Vantage uses AI and machine learning to provide a tailored and intuitive platform based on our clients' specific needs.

我們完成了 Fargo 的開發，這是我們新的人工智能虛擬助手，提供更加個性化、方便和簡單的銀行體驗，目前為符合條件的員工提供服務，並將於今年年初開始向客戶推出。上個月，我們發布了 Vantage，這是我們為商業和企業客戶提供的全新增強數字體驗。 Vantage 使用人工智能和機器學習，根據客戶的特定需求提供量身定制的直觀平台。

Over the past year, our industry-leading API platform team continued the development of payment APIs for commercial and corporate clients invested in solutions to support our financial institution clients, ramps up in group product offerings in consumer lending and began developing commercial lending solutions. We are investing heavily in modernizing the IT infrastructure and the way we develop code. We're implementing a cloud-native operating model that allows us to innovate faster.

在過去的一年裡，我們行業領先的 API 平台團隊繼續為商業和企業客戶開發支付 API，投資解決方案以支持我們的金融機構客戶，增加消費貸款的集團產品供應，並開始開發商業貸款解決方案。我們正在大力投資現代化 IT 基礎設施和我們開發代碼的方式。我們正在實施一種雲原生運營模式，使我們能夠更快地進行創新。

We've also been investing in modernization in the areas of payments and corporate lending, taking out legacy applications and digitizing processes end to end. These enhanced digital capabilities are just the start of initiatives we have planned as part of our multiyear digital transformation. We also continue to evaluate our existing businesses. As we announced earlier this week, we plan to create a more focused home lending business, aimed at serving primarily bank customers as well as individuals and families and minority communities.

我們還一直在支付和企業貸款領域的現代化投資，淘汰遺留應用程序和端到端數字化流程。這些增強的數字功能只是我們計劃作為多年數字化轉型一部分的舉措的開始。我們還繼續評估我們現有的業務。正如我們本週早些時候宣布的那樣，我們計劃創建一個更專注的家庭貸款業務，旨在主要服務於銀行客戶以及個人和家庭以及少數族裔社區。

This includes exiting the correspondent business and reducing the size of our servicing portfolio. I'm saying for some time that the mortgage business has changed dramatically since the financial crisis, and we've been adjusting our strategy accordingly. We're focused on our customers, profitability, returns and serving minority communities, not volume or market share.

這包括退出代理業務和縮減我們服務組合的規模。我說過一段時間以來，抵押貸款業務自金融危機以來發生了巨大變化，我們一直在相應地調整我們的戰略。我們專注於我們的客戶、盈利能力、回報和服務少數族裔社區，而不是數量或市場份額。

The mortgage product is important to our customer base and the communities we serve, so it will remain important to us, but we do not need to be one of the biggest originators or services -- servicers in the industry to do this effectively. Across all of our businesses, we must evolve as the market regulation and competition has evolved. And while it may seem counterintuitive, we believe the decision to reduce risk in the mortgage business by reducing size and narrowing us will actually -- this will actually enable us to serve customers better and will also improve our returns in the long term.

抵押貸款產品對我們的客戶群和我們服務的社區很重要，因此它對我們仍然很重要，但我們不需要成為最大的發起者或服務商之一——行業中的服務商才能有效地做到這一點。在我們所有的業務中，我們必須隨著市場監管和競爭的發展而發展。雖然這似乎違反直覺，但我們相信通過縮小規模和縮小我們的規模來降低抵押貸款業務風險的決定實際上會——這實際上將使我們能夠更好地為客戶服務，並且從長遠來看也會提高我們的回報。

Changing gears now, I'm proud of all we did last year to make progress on our environmental, social and governance work. We are balanced in our approach to these issues and believe that thinking broadly about our stakeholders will enhance returns to shareholders, and we provide many examples on Slide 2 of our presentation. So let me just highlight 2 examples here. We published our first diversity, equity and inclusion report, which highlights the progress that we've made on our DE&I initiatives. We'll continue to make progress in our commitment to integrating DE&I into every aspect of the company under the new leadership of Kristy Fercho, which [will be] joining Wells Fargo in 2023 to lead our home lending business and was named the company's new Head of diverse segments, representation and inclusion in the fourth quarter.

現在換檔，我為去年我們在環境、社會和治理工作方面取得進展所做的一切感到自豪。我們對這些問題採取平衡的態度，並相信廣泛考慮我們的利益相關者將提高股東回報，我們在演示文稿的幻燈片 2 中提供了許多示例。所以讓我在這裡強調兩個例子。我們發布了第一份多元化、公平和包容性報告，重點介紹了我們在 DE&I 計劃方面取得的進展。在 Kristy Fercho 的新領導下，我們將繼續致力於將 DE&I 整合到公司的各個方面，Kristy Fercho [將] 於 2023 年加入富國銀行，領導我們的房屋貸款業務，並被任命為公司的新負責人第四季度的不同細分市場、代表性和包容性。

We've commissioned an external third-party racial equity audit, and we plan to publish the results of the assessment by the end of this year. 2022 is a turning point in the economic cycle. The Federal Reserve has made clear that reducing inflation is its priority and it will continue to take actions necessary to achieve its goal.

我們已委託外部第三方進行種族平等審計，我們計劃在今年年底前公佈評估結果。 2022年是經濟周期的轉折點。美聯儲已明確表示，降低通脹是其首要任務，並將繼續採取必要行動以實現其目標。

We are starting to see the impact on consumer spend, credit, housing and demands for goods and services, but at this point, the impact of consumers and businesses has been manageable. And though there will certainly be some industries and segments of consumers that are more impacted than others, the rate impact we see in our customer base is not materially -- I'm sorry, the rate of impact we see in our customer base is not materially accelerating. This plus the strength with which consumers and businesses went into this slowing economy is a helpful set of facts as we look forward.

我們開始看到對消費者支出、信貸、住房以及商品和服務需求的影響，但在這一點上，消費者和企業的影響是可控的。儘管肯定會有一些行業和消費者群體比其他行業和消費者群體受到的影響更大，但我們在客戶群中看到的影響率並不大——對不起，我們在客戶群中看到的影響率並不大物質加速。這加上消費者和企業在這個放緩的經濟中的力量是我們期待的一組有用的事實。

Our customers have remained resilient with deposit balances, consumer spending and credit quality still stronger than pre-pandemic levels. As we look forward, we're carefully watching the impact of higher rates on our customers and expect to see deposit balances and credit quality continue to return toward pre-pandemic levels. While we're not predicting a severe downturn, we must be prepared for one, and we are stronger company than 1 and 2 years ago. Our margins are wider, our returns are higher. We're better managed, and our capital position is strong. So we feel prepared for a downside scenario if we see broader deterioration than we currently see or predict.

我們的客戶保持韌性，存款餘額、消費者支出和信貸質量仍強於大流行前水平。展望未來，我們正在仔細觀察更高利率對客戶的影響，並預計存款餘額和信貸質量將繼續恢復到大流行前的水平。雖然我們沒有預測會出現嚴重的經濟衰退，但我們必須為經濟衰退做好準備，而且我們的公司比 1 年和 2 年前更強大。我們的利潤率更高，回報率更高。我們得到了更好的管理，我們的資本狀況也很強大。因此，如果我們看到比我們目前看到或預測的更廣泛的惡化，我們會為下行情景做好準備。

We still have clear opportunities to improve our performance as we make progress on our efficiency initiatives and continue to make the investments necessary to grow the business through technology and product enhancements. 2 years ago, we shared a path to higher ROTCE by returning capital to our shareholders and executing on our efficiency initiatives. While high levels of operating losses in the second half of '22 impacted our results, our underlying business performance demonstrated our ability to improve our returns.

隨著我們在效率計劃方面取得進展，並繼續通過技術和產品改進進行業務增長所需的投資，我們仍然有明顯的機會來提高我們的績效。 2 年前，我們通過向股東返還資本和執行我們的效率舉措，分享了一條通往更高 ROTCE 的道路。雖然 22 年下半年的高額經營虧損影響了我們的業績，但我們的基本業務績效證明了我們提高回報的能力。

In a moment, Mike will highlight the key drivers of our path to a 15% ROTCE, which we believe is achievable based on the strength of our business model and our ability to execute. While we're focused on improving our returns, making progress on building the appropriate risk and control and infrastructure for a company of our size and complexity will remain our top priority, and we will dedicate the time and resources necessary.

稍後，Mike 將重點介紹我們實現 15% ROTCE 的關鍵驅動因素，我們認為這是可以實現的，這取決於我們的業務模型的實力和我們的執行能力。在我們專注於提高回報的同時，為我們這種規模和復雜性的公司建立適當的風險和控制以及基礎設施方面取得進展仍然是我們的首要任務，我們將投入必要的時間和資源。

I want to conclude by thanking our employees across the company who are working hard each day to continue to make progress in our transformation. I'm excited about all that we will accomplish in the year ahead.

最後，我想感謝全公司的員工，他們每天都在努力工作，繼續在我們的轉型中取得進展。我對我們將在未來一年取得的成就感到興奮。

I'll now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Charlie. And good morning, everyone. Slides 2 and 3 summarize how we helped our customers, communities and employees last year, some of which Charlie covered. So I'm going to start with our fourth quarter financial results on Slide 4. Net income for the fourth quarter was $2.9 billion or $0.67 per diluted common share. Our fourth quarter results included $3.3 billion or $0.70 per share of operating losses primarily related to a variety of previously disclosed historical matters, including litigation, regulatory and customer remediation.

謝謝你，查理。大家早上好。幻燈片 2 和 3 總結了去年我們如何幫助我們的客戶、社區和員工，查理介紹了其中的一些內容。因此，我將從幻燈片 4 上的第四季度財務業績開始。第四季度的淨收入為 29 億美元或每股攤薄普通股 0.67 美元。我們第四季度的業績包括 33 億美元或每股 0.70 美元的經營虧損，主要與之前披露的各種歷史事件有關，包括訴訟、監管和客戶補救措施。

$1 billion of impairment of equity securities or $749 million after noncontrolling interest, predominantly in our affiliated venture capital business, primarily driven by portfolio companies in the enterprise software sector. Both, slowing revenue growth rates and lower public market valuations of enterprise software companies impact the valuations.

10 億美元的股權證券減值或扣除非控股權益後的 7.49 億美元，主要是在我們的附屬風險投資業務中，主要由企業軟件領域的投資組合公司推動。企業軟件公司的收入增長率放緩和公開市場估值下降都會影響估值。

It's important to note that even after recognizing this impairment, the current value of these investments at the end of 2022 remained above the amount of the initial investment. $353 million of severance expense, primarily in home lending. While we've reduced headcount in this business throughout 2022, this charge includes the actions we plan to take in 2023 related to the mortgage announcement we made earlier this week.

值得注意的是，即使在確認了這一減值之後，這些投資在 2022 年底的現值仍高於初始投資金額。 3.53 億美元的遣散費，主要用於房屋貸款。雖然我們在整個 2022 年都在裁員，但這筆費用包括我們計劃在 2023 年採取的與本週早些時候發布的抵押貸款公告相關的行動。

These reductions were partially offset by $510 million of discrete tax benefits related to interest and overpayments in prior years. We highlight capital on Slide 5. Our CET1 ratio was 10.6%, up approximately 30 basis points from the third quarter, reflecting the benefit from our fourth quarter earnings, the annual share issuance for our 401(k) plan matching contribution and an increase from AOCI.

這些減少部分被前幾年與利息和超額支付相關的 5.1 億美元的離散稅收優惠所抵消。我們在幻燈片 5 中強調資本。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.6%，比第三季度上升約 30 個基點，反映了我們第四季度收益的收益、我們 401(k) 計劃匹配供款的年度股票發行以及從AOCI。

Our CET1 ratio remained well above our required regulatory minimum plus buffers, which increased by 10 basis points to 9.2% at the start of the fourth quarter as our new stress capital buffer took effect. As a reminder, our G-SIB surcharge will not increase in 2023. While we have not repurchased any common stock since the first quarter of 2022, we currently expect to resume share repurchases in the first quarter of this year.

我們的 CET1 比率仍遠高於我們要求的監管最低加緩衝，隨著我們新的壓力資本緩衝生效，該比率在第四季度初增加了 10 個基點，達到 9.2%。提醒一下，我們的 G-SIB 附加費在 2023 年不會增加。雖然我們自 2022 年第一季度以來沒有回購任何普通股，但我們目前預計將在今年第一季度恢復股票回購。

Turning to credit quality on Slide 7. Credit performance remained strong with 23 basis points of net charge-offs in the fourth quarter. However, as expected, losses are slowly increasing from historical lows, and we expect them to continue to return toward pre-pandemic levels over time, as the federal needs to take actions to combat high inflation.

關於幻燈片 7 的信用質量。信用表現依然強勁，第四季度淨沖銷額為 23 個基點。然而，正如預期的那樣，損失正在從歷史低點緩慢增加，我們預計它們將隨著時間的推移繼續回到大流行前的水平，因為聯邦政府需要採取行動來對抗高通脹。

Credit performance remains wrong across our commercial businesses with only 6 base points of net charge-offs in the fourth quarter. Total consumer net charge-offs increased $88 million from the third quarter to 48 basis points of average loans, driven by an increase in net charge-offs in the credit card portfolio but remained slightly below consumer net charge-off levels in the fourth quarter of 2019.

我們的商業業務的信用表現仍然不佳，第四季度的淨沖銷只有 6 個基點。消費者淨註銷總額比第三季度增加了 8800 萬美元，達到平均貸款的 48 個基點，這是受信用卡組合淨註銷增加的推動，但仍略低於第四季度的消費者淨註銷水平2019.

Nonperforming assets increased 1% from the third quarter as lower residential mortgage nonaccrual loans were more than offset by higher commercial real estate nonaccrual loans. Our allowance for credit losses increased $397 million in the fourth quarter, primarily reflecting loan growth as well as a less favorable economic environment. We are closely monitoring our portfolio for potential risk and are continuing to take some targeted actions to further tighten underwriting standards.

由於較低的住宅抵押貸款非應計貸款被較高的商業房地產非應計貸款所抵消，不良資產較第三季度增加了 1%。我們的信貸損失準備金在第四季度增加了 3.97 億美元，主要反映了貸款增長以及不利的經濟環境。我們正在密切監控我們的投資組合的潛在風險，並繼續採取一些有針對性的行動來進一步收緊承保標準。

Let me highlight trends in 2 of our portfolios. The size of our auto portfolios declined for 3 consecutive quarters and balances were down 5% at the end of 2022 compared to year-end 2021. Meanwhile, originations were down 47% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago which reflected credit tightening actions and continued price competition due to rising interest rates.

讓我強調一下我們兩個投資組合的趨勢。與 2021 年底相比，我們的汽車投資組合規模連續 3 個季度下降，餘額在 2022 年底下降了 5%。與此同時，第四季度的原始貸款額與去年同期相比下降了 47%，這反映了信貸緊縮措施利率上升導致價格競爭持續。

Of note, our new vehicle originations surpassed used vehicles in the fourth quarter, reflecting a combination of credit tightening actions that we've implemented and the industry dynamic of higher new vehicle sales growth.

值得注意的是，第四季度我們的新車產量超過了二手車，這反映了我們實施的信貸緊縮措施和新車銷售增長較高的行業動態的結合。

Turning to the commercial real estate office portfolio. The office market is showing signs of weakness due to weak demand driving higher vacancy rates and deteriorating operating performance as well as challenging economic and capital market conditions. While we haven't seen this translate to significant loss content yet, we do expect to see stress over time and are proactively working with borrowers to manage our exposure and being disciplined in our underwriting standards with both, outstanding balances and (inaudible) down compared to a year ago.

轉向商業地產寫字樓組合。由於需求疲軟導致空置率上升、經營業績惡化以及充滿挑戰的經濟和資本市場狀況，寫字樓市場正顯示出疲軟跡象。雖然我們還沒有看到這轉化為重大損失內容，但我們確實希望隨著時間的推移看到壓力，並積極與借款人合作以管理我們的風險敞口，並在我們的承銷標準中遵守未清餘額和（聽不清）相比到一年前。

On Slide 8, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans grew 8% from a year ago and $3.1 billion from the third quarter. Period-end loans increased for the sixth consecutive quarter with growth across our commercial portfolios and higher consumer loans driven by credit card and residential loans, partially offset by continued declines in our auto portfolio.

在幻燈片 8 中，我們突出顯示了貸款和存款。平均貸款較上年同期增長 8%，較第三季度增長 31 億美元。期末貸款連續第六個季度增加，我們的商業投資組合有所增長，信用卡和住宅貸款推動消費貸款增加，部分被我們汽車投資組合的持續下降所抵消。

I'll highlight the specific growth drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 181 basis points from a year ago and 85 basis points from the third quarter, reflecting the higher rate environment. Average deposits declined 6% from a year ago, 2% from the third quarter. Compared with the third quarter, we saw declines in each of our business. Lower consumer balances reflected customers continuing to reallocate cash in higher-yielding alternatives, particularly in wealth and investment management and continued consumer spending.

在討論我們的運營部門業績時，我將強調具體的增長動力。平均貸款收益率較上年同期上升 181 個基點，較第三季度上升 85 個基點，反映出較高的利率環境。平均存款較上年同期下降 6%，較第三季度下降 2%。與第三季度相比，我們看到每項業務都有所下降。較低的消費者余額反映出客戶繼續將現金重新分配到更高收益的替代方案中，特別是在財富和投資管理以及持續的消費支出方面。

As expected, our average deposit cost increased 32 basis points from the third quarter to 46 basis points driven by higher deposit costs across all operating segments in response to rising interest rates. Average deposit costs are up 44 basis points since the fourth quarter of 2021, while market rates have increased substantially more during that same time.

正如預期的那樣，我們的平均存款成本比第三季度增加了 32 個基點，達到 46 個基點，這是由於利率上升導致所有運營部門的存款成本上升。自 2021 年第四季度以來，平均存款成本上升了 44 個基點，而同期市場利率的漲幅要大得多。

As rates continue to rise, we would expect deposit betas to continue to increase in customer migration from lower yielding to higher yielding deposit products to continue. Turning to net interest income on Slide 9. Fourth quarter net interest income was $13.4 billion which was 45% higher than a year ago as we continue to benefit from the impact of higher rates. I'll provide details on our '23 expectations later on the call.

隨著利率繼續上升，我們預計存款貝塔值將繼續增加，客戶將繼續從低收益存款產品轉向高收益存款產品。轉到幻燈片 9 的淨利息收入。第四季度淨利息收入為 134 億美元，比去年同期增長 45%，因為我們繼續受益於更高利率的影響。我將在稍後的電話會議上提供有關我們 23 年期望的詳細信息。

Turning to expenses on Slide 10. The increase in noninterest expense from both, a year ago and from the third quarter, was driven by higher operating losses. Excluding operating losses, other noninterest expense was flat from a year ago as higher severance expense was offset by lower revenue-related compensation and continued progress on our efficiency initiatives. Our operating losses in the fourth quarter included accruals related to the December 2022 CFPB consent order.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的費用。非利息費用比一年前和第三季度都增加，這是由更高的運營虧損推動的。不計運營虧損，其他非利息費用與一年前持平，因為較高的遣散費被較低的收入相關補償和我們效率計劃的持續進展所抵消。我們第四季度的經營虧損包括與 2022 年 12 月 CFPB 同意令相關的應計費用。

As part of that settlement, we agreed to 1 incremental remediation and 1 new remediation related to overdraft fees. The accrual related to these 2 remediations was approximately $350 million. Our operating losses in the fourth quarter also included accruals for other legal actions and reflecting these accruals, our current estimate of the high end of the range of reasonably possible losses and accessible for legal actions as of December 31, 2022, is approximately $1.4 billion.

作為該和解的一部分，我們同意 1 項增量補救措施和 1 項與透支費用相關的新補救措施。與這 2 項補救措施相關的應計費用約為 3.5 億美元。我們在第四季度的經營虧損還包括其他法律訴訟的應計費用，反映這些應計費用，我們目前對截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日合理可能的損失範圍的上限和可用於法律訴訟的估計約為 14 億美元。

This is down approximately $2.3 billion from September 30, 2022. While we still have outstanding litigation resolved, this estimate would be the lowest level since the second quarter of 2016 though, of course, new matters will arise and existing matters will develop over time. The estimate for December 31, 2022, will be updated at the time of our 10-K filing in February and may change. While we acknowledge the elevated level of operating losses, the past 2 quarters has been significant. They are important steps in putting historical issues behind us as we've been able to absorb the cost while increasing our CET1 ratio as I highlighted earlier.

這比 2022 年 9 月 30 日減少了約 23 億美元。雖然我們仍有未決訴訟得到解決，但這一估計將是自 2016 年第二季度以來的最低水平，當然，新的問題將會出現，現有的問題也會隨著時間的推移而發展。 2022 年 12 月 31 日的估計值將在我們 2 月份提交 10-K 時更新，並且可能會發生變化。雖然我們承認經營虧損水平較高，但過去兩個季度的虧損非常嚴重。它們是將歷史問題拋在腦後的重要步驟，因為正如我之前強調的那樣，我們已經能夠在提高 CET1 比率的同時吸收成本。

Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 11. Consumer and Small Business Banking revenue increased 36% from a year ago driven by the impact of higher interest rates. Deposit-related fees continued to decline as we completed the rollout of the overdraft fee reductions and new product enhancements that we announced early last year to help customers avoid overdraft fees.

轉向我們的運營部門，從幻燈片 11 上的消費者銀行業務和貸款業務開始。受利率上升的影響，消費者和小型企業銀行業務收入比一年前增長了 36%。隨著我們完成去年年初宣布的透支費用減免和新產品改進的推出，以幫助客戶避免透支費用，存款相關費用繼續下降。

The majority of the revenue impact of these changes was reflected in the fourth quarter run rate. We continue to focus on branch rationalization as digital adoption and usage among our customer are steadily increased. In 2022, we reduced branches by 179 and branch staffing levels by 10%, and we expect to continue to optimize our branches and staffing levels in response to changing customer needs.

這些變化對收入的大部分影響反映在第四季度的運行率上。隨著我們客戶的數字化採用和使用穩步增加，我們繼續關注分支機構合理化。 2022年，我們減少網點179家，網點人員減少10%，我們預計將繼續優化網點和人員數量，以應對不斷變化的客戶需求。

While industry mortgage rates declined in the fourth quarter, they were still up over 330 basis points since the beginning of the year, including mortgage applications as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association. We're at a 26-year low at quarter end. The economic incentive to refinance is extremely limited. And refinance applications for the industry were down 87% in December compared to a year ago.

儘管行業抵押貸款利率在第四季度有所下降，但自年初以來仍上漲了 330 多個基點，包括抵押貸款銀行家協會衡量的抵押貸款申請。我們在季度末處於 26 年低點。再融資的經濟激勵極為有限。與去年同期相比，12 月份該行業的再融資申請下降了 87%。

Reflecting these market conditions, our home lending revenue declined 57% from a year ago, driven by lower mortgage originations and gain on sale margins as well as lower revenue from the resecuritization of loans purchased from securitization pools. We expect the mortgage origination market will continue to be challenging and gain on sale margin or remain under pressure until excess capacity industry has been removed.

反映這些市場狀況，我們的住房貸款收入比一年前下降了 57%，這是由於抵押貸款發放和銷售利潤率下降以及從證券化池購買的貸款進行再證券化的收入下降。我們預計抵押貸款發放市場將繼續充滿挑戰，並在銷售利潤率上獲得增長或繼續承受壓力，直到過剩產能行業被消除。

As we announced this week, we will be exiting our correspondent business, which we expect to be substantially complete by the end of the first quarter. We don't expect this action to have a significant impact on our 2023 financial results. Credit card revenue was up 6% from a year ago due to higher loan balances driven by higher point of sale volume and new product launches. Auto revenue declined 12% from the year ago driven by continued loan spread compression from rising rates and credit tightening actions in certain areas as well as lower loan balances.

正如我們本周宣布的那樣，我們將退出我們的代理業務，我們預計該業務將在第一季度末基本完成。我們預計此舉不會對我們 2023 年的財務業績產生重大影響。信用卡收入較上年同期增長 6%，原因是更高的銷售點和新產品推出推動貸款餘額增加。汽車收入較上年同期下降 12%，原因是利率上升和某些地區的信貸收緊措施導致貸款利差持續壓縮，以及貸款餘額下降。

Personal lending was up 9% from a year ago due to higher loan balances, partially offset by lower spread compression. While originations grew 19% from the year ago driven by strong consumer demand in investments and the business, we have remained disciplined in our underwriting.

由於貸款餘額增加，個人貸款比一年前增長了 9%，部分被利差壓縮減少所抵消。儘管在消費者對投資和業務的強勁需求的推動下，發起業務較上年同期增長了 19%，但我們在承保方面仍保持紀律。

Turning to key business drivers on Slide 12. Mortgage originations declined 70% from a year ago and 32% from the third quarter, with both declines in correspondent and retail and originations. Refinances as a percentage of total originations were over half of our volume a year ago to declined to 13% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的主要業務驅動因素。抵押貸款發放比一年前下降 70%，比第三季度下降 32%，代理和零售以及發放均下降。再融資佔發起總額的百分比超過一年前的一半，到 2022 年第四季度下降到 13%。

I already highlighted the drivers of the decline in auto originations. So turning to debit card. Spending was up 1% compared to a year ago. Holiday spend for debit card was flat compared to the 2021 season with lower transaction volume, offset by higher average [ticket] size. Entertainment was the only category with double-digit spending while growth -- while categories such as home improvement, general retail goods and [fuel] were all down compared to 2021.

我已經強調了汽車起源下降的驅動因素。所以轉向借記卡。與一年前相比，支出增長了 1%。與 2021 年相比，借記卡的假期支出持平，交易量較低，但被平均 [票] 規模增加所抵消。娛樂是唯一支出兩位數增長的類別——而家居裝修、一般零售商品和[燃料]等類別與 2021 年相比均有所下降。

Credit card spending increased 17% from a year ago, and while the year-over-year growth rate slowed from the third quarter, almost all categories continue to have double-digit growth. Average balances were up 22% from a year ago. Payment rates have started to moderate, but we're still well above pre-pandemic levels.

信用卡支出較上年同期增長 17%，雖然同比增長率較第三季度有所放緩，但幾乎所有類別都繼續保持兩位數的增長。平均餘額比一年前增長了 22%。付款率已開始放緩，但我們仍遠高於大流行前的水平。

Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 13. Middle Market Banking revenue increased 78% from a year ago, driven by higher net interest income due to the impact of higher rates and higher loan balances. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue declined 4% from a year ago, driven by lower net gains from equity securities, partially offset by loan growth. Average loan balances were up 18% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, while growth in the first half of 2022 was driven by higher [line] utilization. Utilization rates stabilized in the second half of the year.

轉到幻燈片 13 上的商業銀行業務結果。中間市場銀行業務收入較上年同期增長 78%，這是由於較高的利率和較高的貸款餘額的影響導致淨利息收入增加。基於資產的貸款和租賃收入較上年同期下降 4%，這是受股票證券淨收益下降的推動，部分被貸款增長所抵消。與去年同期相比，第四季度平均貸款餘額增長了 18%，而 2022 年上半年的增長是由更高的 [line] 利用率推動的。利用率在下半年趨於穩定。

Average loan balances have grown for 6 consecutive quarters and were up 5% in the third quarter, with growth in asset-based lending and leasing driven by continued growth in client inventory, which are still below pre-pandemic levels. Growth in middle market banking was driven by larger clients, including both, new and existing relationships, which more than offset declines from our smaller customers.

平均貸款餘額已連續 6 個季度增長，第三季度增長了 5%，客戶庫存持續增長推動了基於資產的貸款和租賃的增長，但仍低於大流行前的水平。中間市場銀行業務的增長是由大客戶推動的，包括新客戶和現有客戶，這足以抵消我們小客戶的下降。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 14. Banking revenue increased 22% from a year ago driven by stronger treasury management results due to the impact of higher interest rates as well as improved lending results. Investment banking fees declined from a year ago, reflecting lower market activity with declines across all products and industries.

轉到幻燈片 14 的企業和投資銀行業務。銀行收入比一年前增長了 22%，這是由於更高的利率以及貸款業績改善的影響導致資金管理業績更強勁。投資銀行費用較一年前下降，反映出市場活動減少，所有產品和行業均出現下降。

Commercial real estate revenue grew 16% from a year ago driven by stronger lending results to a higher loan balances and the impact of higher interest rates. Markets revenues increased 17% from a year ago, driven by higher trading revenue in equities, rates and commodities, foreign exchange and municipal products.

商業房地產收入較上年同期增長 16%，這主要受貸款業績強勁、貸款餘額增加以及利率上升的影響。受股票、利率和大宗商品、外彙和市政產品交易收入增加的推動，市場收入較上年同期增長 17%。

Average loans grew 10% from a year ago after growing for seventh consecutive quarter, average loans declined from the third quarter as utilization rates stabilized across most portfolios. On Slide 15, Wealth and Investment Management revenue was up 1% compared to a year ago, as the increase in net interest income driven by the impact of higher rates was partially offset by lower asset-based fees due to the decrease in market valuations.

在連續第七個季度增長後，平均貸款較上年同期增長 10%，但隨著大多數投資組合的利用率趨於穩定，平均貸款較第三季度有所下降。在幻燈片 15 中，財富和投資管理收入與一年前相比增長了 1%，這是由於利率上升帶來的淨利息收入增長被市場估值下降導致的基於資產的費用減少所部分抵消。

The majority of [win] advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter, so asset-based increased slightly in the first quarter, reflecting the higher market valuations at the end of the year. Expenses decreased 6% from a year ago, driven by lower revenue-related compensation and the impact of efficiency initiatives. Even as loan growth in securities-based lending moderated due to demand caused by market volatility in the interest rate environment, average loans grew 1% from a year ago.

大多數 [win] 諮詢資產在本季度初定價，因此第一季度基於資產的資產略有增加，反映出年底市場估值較高。由於與收入相關的薪酬較低以及效率舉措的影響，費用比一年前下降了 6%。儘管由於利率環境的市場波動導致需求放緩，證券借貸的貸款增長放緩，但平均貸款較一年前增長了 1%。

Slide 16 highlights our corporate results. Both, revenue and expenses were impacted by the divestitures last year of our Corporate Trust business in Wells Fargo Asset Management. We sold these businesses in the fourth quarter of 2021, which resulted in a net gain of $943 million.

幻燈片 16 突出顯示了我們的企業業績。收入和支出都受到去年剝離 Wells Fargo Asset Management 企業信託業務的影響。我們在 2021 年第四季度出售了這些業務，淨收益為 9.43 億美元。

Revenue also declined from a year ago due to lower results in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses, including the impairments, equity securities I highlighted earlier. The increase in expenses from a year ago was driven by higher operating losses.

由於我們附屬的風險投資和私募股權業務的業績下降，包括我之前強調的減值、股權證券，收入也比一年前有所下降。與一年前相比，費用增加的原因是營業虧損增加。

Turning to our expectations for '23, starting on Slide 17. Let me start by highlighting our expectations for net interest income. We are assuming that -- we are assuming the asset cap will remain in place throughout the year. Moving from left to right on the waterfall based on the current forward rate curve, we expect our net interest income will continue to benefit from the impact of higher rates even with deposits repricing faster than they did in 2022.

轉向我們對 23 年的預期，從幻燈片 17 開始。讓我首先強調我們對淨利息收入的預期。我們假設 - 我們假設資產上限將全年保持不變。根據當前的遠期利率曲線，在瀑布圖上從左到右移動，我們預計我們的淨利息收入將繼續受益於更高利率的影響，即使存款重新定價的速度比 2022 年更快。

However, this benefit is expected to be partially offset by continued deposit runoff and mix shift to higher-yielding products with these declines, partially offset by modest loan growth. We also expect a headwind for lower CIB Markets net interest income due to higher funding costs. This reduction is expected to be partially offset by an increase in trading gains and noninterest income, so the impact to revenue is currently expected to be small.

然而，預計這一收益將部分被持續的存款流失和混合轉向更高收益的產品所抵消，部分被適度的貸款增長所抵消。我們還預計，由於更高的融資成本，CIB Markets 的淨利息收入將受到不利影響。這一減少預計將部分被交易收益和非利息收入的增加所抵消，因此目前預計對收入的影響很小。

Putting this all together, we currently expect net interest income to grow by approximately 10% in 2023 versus 2022. Ultimately, the amount of net interest income we earned in 2023 will depend on a variety of factors, many of which are uncertain including the absolute level of interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, deposit balances, mix and pricing in the loan demand.

綜上所述，我們目前預計 2023 年的淨利息收入將比 2022 年增長約 10%。最終，我們在 2023 年賺取的淨利息收入金額將取決於多種因素，其中許多因素是不確定的，包括絕對利率水平、收益率曲線的形狀、存款餘額、貸款需求的組合和定價。

Turning to our 2023 expense outlook on Slide 18. Following the waterfall from left to right, we reported $57.3 billion in noninterest expense in 2022, which included $7 billion of operating losses. Excluding operating losses, expenses would have been $50.3 billion, which is -- which was in line with the guidance we provided at the beginning of last year. If you also exclude operating losses from the guidance, our 2022 expenses were impacted by inflation and higher severance expense.

轉向我們在幻燈片 18 上的 2023 年支出展望。按照從左到右的瀑布流，我們報告 2022 年的非利息支出為 573 億美元，其中包括 70 億美元的運營虧損。不計運營虧損，費用為 503 億美元，這與我們去年年初提供的指導一致。如果您還從指導中排除經營虧損，我們 2022 年的支出將受到通貨膨脹和更高遣散費的影響。

However, revenue-related expenses were lower than expected by market conditions. So we believe a good starting point for discussion for -- of 2023 expenses was $50.3 billion, which excludes operating losses. We expect expenses in 2023 to increase by approximately $1 billion due to both, merit increases, including inflationary pressures and an approximately $250 million increase in FDIC expense related to the previously announced surcharge.

然而，與收入相關的費用低於市場狀況的預期。因此，我們認為討論 2023 年支出的一個很好的起點是 503 億美元，其中不包括運營虧損。我們預計 2023 年的支出將增加約 10 億美元，原因包括通貨膨脹壓力和與先前宣布的附加費相關的 FDIC 支出增加約 2.5 億美元。

These increases are expected to be partially offset by approximately $100 million of lower revenue-related expense, primarily driven by decreases in [loan] lending. Based on current market levels, we expect revenue-related expense in Wealth and Investment Management for 2023 to be similar to 2022. We've successfully delivered on our commitment of approximately $7.5 billion of gross expense saves over the past 2 years and through our efficiency initiatives, we expect to realize an additional $3.2 billion of gross expense reductions in 2023.

這些增長預計將被約 1 億美元的收入相關費用減少部分抵消，這主要是由於 [loan] 貸款的減少。根據目前的市場水平，我們預計 2023 年財富和投資管理中與收入相關的費用將與 2022 年相似。我們已成功兌現承諾，在過去 2 年中通過我們的效率節省了約 75 億美元的總費用舉措，我們預計到 2023 年將再減少 32 億美元的總費用。

A piece of this is related to the announcement we made earlier this week to create a more focused home lending business but expense savings from reducing our servicing business will take more time to be realized.

其中一部分與我們本週早些時候宣布創建一個更專注的家庭貸款業務有關，但通過減少我們的服務業務而節省的費用將需要更多時間才能實現。

We highlighted on this slide the largest opportunities for additional savings this year, and we believe we'll have more opportunities beyond 2023. Similar to prior years, the resources needed to address our risk and control work separate from our efficiency initiatives. And we will continue to add resources as necessary to complete this important work.

我們在這張幻燈片上強調了今年額外節省的最大機會，我們相信我們將在 2023 年以後有更多機會。與往年類似，解決我們的風險和控制工作所需的資源與我們的效率計劃分開。我們將繼續根據需要增加資源以完成這項重要工作。

And while we continue to focus on executing our efficiency initiatives, we're also continuing to invest and expect approximately $1.7 billion of incremental investments in our businesses in 2023. As Charlie discussed, investing in our businesses is critical to our (inaudible) growth across the company and better serve our customers, but we'll also continue to be thoughtful and evaluate the level of investments throughout the year.

在我們繼續專注於執行我們的效率計劃的同時，我們也將繼續投資並預計到 2023 年我們的業務將增加約 17 億美元的投資。正如查理所討論的那樣，投資我們的業務對於我們（聽不清）在全球範圍內的增長至關重要公司並更好地為我們的客戶服務，但我們也將繼續深思熟慮並評估全年的投資水平。

So putting this all together, expenses, excluding operating losses are expected to be relatively flat in 2023 compared with 2022, even with inflationary pressures, a higher FDI surcharge and increase incremental investments in our businesses.

因此，將所有這些放在一起，與 2022 年相比，預計 2023 年不包括運營虧損的費用將相對持平，即使存在通脹壓力、更高的 FDI 附加費和增加對我們業務的增量投資。

As 2022 demonstrated, operating losses can be significant and hard to predict, and therefore, we have not included them in our expense outlook for 2023. However, we currently anticipate ongoing business-related operating losses, such as fraud, theft and other business as usual losses to be approximately $1.3 billion this year, which is the same assumption we provided last year. As previously disclosed, we had an outstanding litigation -- have outstanding litigation, regulatory and customer remediation matters that could impact the amount of operating losses.

正如 2022 年所證明的那樣，經營虧損可能會很大且難以預測，因此，我們沒有將其納入我們 2023 年的費用展望中。但是，我們目前預計與業務相關的持續經營虧損，例如欺詐、盜竊和其他業務今年通常損失約為 13 億美元，這與我們去年提供的假設相同。如前所述，我們有未決訴訟——有未決訴訟、監管和客戶補救事項，可能會影響經營虧損額。

It's important to note that while we made substantial progress executing on our efficiency initiatives, we still have a significant opportunity to get more efficient across the company. This remains a multiyear process with the goal of achieving an efficiency ratio along with our peers based on our business mix.

值得注意的是，雖然我們在執行效率計劃方面取得了實質性進展，但我們仍然有很大的機會提高整個公司的效率。這仍然是一個多年的過程，目標是根據我們的業務組合與我們的同行一起實現效率比。

Given how critical continuing to invest (inaudible), on Slide 19, we provide details on our primary areas of focus for 2023. As we've highlighted, continuing to build the right risk and control of infrastructure remains our top priority, and we will continue to invest in this important work. Charlie discussed many of the investments we started to make in digital payments, and we plan to continue to invest in these areas this year to make improvements for both, our consumer and commercial customers.

鑑於繼續投資（聽不清）的重要性，在幻燈片 19 中，我們提供了 2023 年主要關注領域的詳細信息。正如我們強調的那樣，繼續建立正確的風險和基礎設施控制仍然是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續投資於這項重要工作。查理討論了我們開始在數字支付方面進行的許多投資，我們計劃今年繼續投資這些領域，為我們的消費者和商業客戶做出改進。

We also plan to continue to invest to expand our client coverage and investment banking, commercial banking and wealth and investment management and to continue to transform our technology platforms, including moving more applications to cloud, consolidating our data centers and increasing investments in cyber.

我們還計劃繼續投資以擴大我們的客戶覆蓋範圍和投資銀行業務、商業銀行業務以及財富和投資管理，並繼續改造我們的技術平台，包括將更多應用程序遷移到雲端、整合我們的數據中心和增加對網絡的投資。

Finally, by investing in our operations and branches, we expect not only to improve the customer experience, but also improve efficiency, reduce operational risk and drive [an account] growth. As we show on Slide 20, in the fourth quarter, we reported an 8% ROTCE, but as I highlighted at the start of the call, our fourth quarter results were impacted by several notable items, including higher operating losses, elevated impairments of equity securities, severance and discrete tax benefits.

最後，通過投資於我們的運營和分支機構，我們不僅希望改善客戶體驗，還希望提高效率、降低運營風險並推動 [賬戶] 增長。正如我們在幻燈片 20 中顯示的那樣，在第四季度，我們報告了 8% 的 ROTCE，但正如我在電話會議開始時強調的那樣，我們第四季度的業績受到幾個值得注意的項目的影響，包括更高的運營損失、更高的股權減值證券、遣散費和離散稅收優惠。

As we show on this slide, you will -- if you exclude these notable items, our fourth quarter ROTCE would have been approximately 16%. However, we don't believe this accurately reflects our longer-term expectations for the following reasons. Net interest income was higher than our long-term expectations due to interest rates, funding, penalties, mix and pricing, Also, net loan charge-offs were at historically low levels. If rates, funding balances, mix and pricing were closer to our long-term expectations and charge-offs were higher, our ROTCE would be lower. Depending on what adjustments you make here, we may all get to a slightly different answer. So to be clear, because the interest rates are higher and freight costs are lower than our longer-term expectations, we believe we have more work to do to improve our returns.

正如我們在這張幻燈片上展示的那樣，如果排除這些值得注意的項目，我們第四季度的 ROTCE 將約為 16%。但是，我們認為這不能準確反映我們的長期預期，原因如下。由於利率、資金、罰款、組合和定價，淨利息收入高於我們的長期預期，此外，淨貸款沖銷處於歷史低位。如果利率、資金餘額、組合和定價更接近我們的長期預期並且沖銷更高，我們的 ROTCE 就會更低。根據您在此處所做的調整，我們可能都會得到略有不同的答案。所以要明確一點，因為利率更高，運費低於我們的長期預期，我們相信我們還有更多工作要做，以提高我們的回報。

On Slide 21, we highlight our path to higher returns. Since we first discussed our ROTCE goal in the earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2020, we have executed on a number of important items. We executed a $20 billion of gross common stock repurchases, $16 billion in net issuances including our 401(k) plan. We increased our common stock dividend from $0.10 to $0.30 per share. We delivered approximately $7.5 billion of gross expense saves and reduced headcount by 11% since the end of 2020.

在幻燈片 21 上，我們強調了我們通往更高回報的道路。自從我們在 2020 年第四季度的財報電話會議上首次討論我們的 ROTCE 目標以來，我們已經執行了許多重要項目。我們執行了 200 億美元的普通股回購總額，160 億美元的淨發行，包括我們的 401(k) 計劃。我們將普通股股息從每股 0.10 美元增加到 0.30 美元。自 2020 年底以來，我們節省了約 75 億美元的總費用，並將員工人數減少了 11%。

So we've made good progress over the past 2 years on things that we can control, and we believe we have a clear line of sight to a sustainable ROTCE of approximately 15% in the medium term. In order to achieve that, we need to continue to optimize our capital, including returning capital to shareholders and redeploying capital to higher-returning products and businesses. Adding more focus on our home lending business should also be a positive contributor to higher returns. We also have additional opportunities to execute on efficiency initiatives. Additionally, we expect to benefit from the investments we are planning in our businesses, which I highlighted earlier.

因此，過去 2 年我們在我們可以控制的事情上取得了很好的進展，我們相信我們對中期可持續的 ROTCE 約為 15% 有明確的看法。為了實現這一目標，我們需要繼續優化我們的資本，包括向股東返還資本以及將資本重新部署到回報率更高的產品和業務。更多地關注我們的房屋貸款業務也應該對更高的回報做出積極貢獻。我們還有更多機會執行效率計劃。此外，我們希望從我之前強調的我們計劃在我們的業務中的投資中受益。

While some of these investments will be dependent on the market environment, we expect them to increase ROTCE. At the same time, we will continue to prioritize building our risk and control infrastructure. In the longer term, we believe that running a company in a more controlled and disciplined manner will continue to benefit returns. And our goal is for our 4 operating segments to produce returns comparable to our best peers.

雖然其中一些投資將取決於市場環境，但我們預計它們會增加 ROTCE。同時，我們將繼續優先建設我們的風險和控制基礎設施。從長遠來看，我們認為以更受控制和更有紀律的方式經營公司將繼續有利於回報。我們的目標是讓我們的 4 個運營部門產生與我們最好的同行相當的回報。

In summary, although the high level of operating losses we had in the fourth quarter significantly impacted our results, the underlying results in the quarter continue to reflect an improvement in our earnings capacity. As we look forward, we expect to continue to grow net interest income and our expenses, excluding operating losses are expected to be relatively flat even after inflation and incremental investments in our businesses to drive growth.

總而言之，儘管我們在第四季度的高額運營虧損對我們的業績產生了重大影響，但本季度的基本業績繼續反映出我們盈利能力的改善。展望未來，我們預計淨利息收入和支出（不包括運營虧損）預計將相對持平，即使在通貨膨脹和對我們業務的增量投資推動增長之後也是如此。

Both, our credit performance and capital levels, remained strong in the fourth quarter. And we expect to resume share repurchases in the first quarter. We will now take your questions.

我們的信貸表現和資本水平在第四季度都保持強勁。我們預計將在第一季度恢復股票回購。我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question of today will come from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Mike, just a follow-up on the NII outlook for the year. So you obviously had a good high end to the year at 13.5% FTE. And just looking at what the guide implies a step down -- a little bit of a step down from thereafter. Can you just kind of walk us through just how you expect the betas to move through and then like what doesn't necessarily follow through from here in terms of some of the moving parts?

邁克，只是對今年 NII 展望的跟進。所以你顯然在 13.5% FTE 的年末取得了不錯的成績。只需看看指南暗示的降級——從那以後的一點點降級。您能否向我們介紹一下您期望 Beta 版如何移動，然後就某些移動部分而言，從這裡開始不一定會發生什麼？

Yes. Sure, Ken. Thanks for the question. I'll just kind of walk you through some of the drivers there. And then obviously, also the timing of when we expect to realize some of those matters as well. And so as you look at the key things, you look at stick loan growth, we've got -- we're expecting kind of low to mid-single-digit loan growth throughout the year. So not super fast pace, but at a moderate pace of loan growth.

是的。當然，肯。謝謝你的問題。我將向您介紹那裡的一些驅動程序。然後很明顯，還有我們期望實現其中一些問題的時間。因此，當你看關鍵的事情時，你會看到堅持的貸款增長，我們已經 - 我們預計全年的貸款增長將達到中低個位數。所以不是超快的速度，而是貸款增長的適度速度。

We are expecting some moderate declines across the deposit base, stabilizing later in the year, but some moderate declines as we look over the next few quarters. And then we would expect the betas to continue to move up a little from here. And then when you think about the pacing of it, the first half of the year will certainly be higher than the second half of the year, if all of these things play out.

我們預計整個存款基數會出現一些溫和下降，並在今年晚些時候穩定下來，但在我們展望未來幾個季度時會出現一些溫和下降。然後我們預計貝塔會從這裡繼續向上移動一點。然後當你考慮它的節奏時，如果所有這些事情都發生了，今年上半年肯定會高於下半年。

And so you shouldn't expect a really big step down in the first quarter for sure. And then I think that provides the opportunity potentially in the second half of the year if things -- if we don't see that step down in deposits or the betas are a little bit better than what we expected. And then I'd just point out is even as we looked at the fourth quarter, betas were a little bit better than what we had modeled.

因此，您肯定不應該期望第一季度會出現真正的大幅下滑。然後我認為這可能會在今年下半年提供機會，如果事情 - 如果我們沒有看到存款下降或貝塔比我們預期的要好一點。然後我要指出的是，即使在我們查看第四季度時，貝塔值也比我們模擬的要好一點。

And so we're all in a little bit of uncharted territory here, but I do think that there's some opportunity potentially in the second half of the year as we look at the forecast, but it will be dependent upon how we fare over the next quarter or 2.

因此，我們在這裡都處於一個未知領域，但我確實認為，當我們查看預測時，今年下半年可能會有一些機會，但這將取決於我們接下來的表現季度或 2。

Okay. Got it. And so second question, I heard your commentary about the $1.3 billion of op losses and the fact that the RPO is down to way down to $1.4 billion. Just how do you kind of help us understand your range of confidence? Obviously, last year, op losses ended at $7 billion as you made progress. So how wide the range of expectations around your confidence on that level of op loss for the year?

好的。知道了。所以第二個問題，我聽到你對 13 億美元的運營損失以及 RPO 下降到 14 億美元這一事實的評論。您如何幫助我們了解您的信心範圍？顯然，去年，隨著您取得進展，運營損失最終達到 70 億美元。那麼，圍繞您對今年運營損失水平的信心的預期範圍有多大？

Well, I think if you look at what we've said over the last quarter or 2, there's been roughly in the third and fourth quarter [200, 250] just BAU op losses that have happened, just broad normal stuff that you should expect to continue. So that gives you sort of a bottom end. And then I think the rest of it is -- will be a little dependent upon how we work through the rest of the issues that we've got to work through for next year.

好吧，我想如果你看看我們在上一季度或第二季度所說的話，大約在第三和第四季度 [200、250] 發生的只是 BAU op 損失，只是你應該預期的廣泛的正常情況接著說。所以這給了你一個底端。然後我認為其餘部分 - 將在一定程度上取決於我們如何解決明年必須解決的其他問題。

But I think as you look at the RPL going from $3.7 billion to $1.4 billion, as those big items have moved to be more probable and estimable for us, we booked them. And hopefully, that gives you confidence that we're putting some of the big things behind us. But we still have stuff to work through, and there'll be more over time, I'm sure. But we've put a lot of big things behind us.

但我認為當你看到 RPL 從 37 億美元增加到 14 億美元時，因為這些大項目對我們來說變得更有可能和可估計，我們預訂了它們。希望這能讓你相信我們正在把一些大事拋在身後。但我們仍然有一些事情需要解決，而且隨著時間的推移會有更多，我敢肯定。但是我們已經把很多大事拋諸腦後了。

The next question will come from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

I think maybe a question along the same lines there. So the tone around the regulatory issue certainly sounds better than like 90 days ago and that reasonably possible losses seems to have a better quantitative thinking as well. But what -- maybe Charlie, what are the major touch points sort of on your plate right now? I know all roads ultimately lead to lifting of the asset cap, but maybe would be curious to hear your thoughts on just sort of the biggest things left in your mind.

我想也許有一個類似的問題。因此，圍繞監管問題的基調聽起來肯定比 90 天前要好，而且合理可能的損失似乎也有更好的量化思維。但是 - 也許查理，你現在盤子裡的主要接觸點是什麼？我知道所有的道路最終都會導致資產上限的取消，但也許很想听聽您對您腦海中留下的最重要的事情的想法。

Yes. Well, let me just -- so listen, we still have a series of consent orders, of which, and I always point this out, the asset cap is a piece of one of them. So all roads don't lead to the asset cap. The roads in this respect lead to us building the proper control environment, which will satisfy ultimately all the consent orders. And I've tried to be clear that we are making progress on that work.

是的。好吧，讓我 - 聽著，我們還有一系列的同意令，其中，我總是指出這一點，資產上限是其中的一部分。所以並非條條大路都通向資產上限。這方面的道路導致我們建立適當的控制環境，這將最終滿足所有的同意命令。我試圖明確表示我們正在這項工作中取得進展。

It is a lot to do. And our tone hasn't changed relative to the confidence in the progress that we're making there. So we're going to continue doing it. And hopefully, it's done to the satisfaction of the regulators, but they'll have to decide that. And as we continue to tick off the to-dos on that work, the control environment gets better and better. And we become a better run company that doesn't have those kinds of operating losses that you've both seen in the past.

有很多事情要做。相對於我們在那裡取得的進展的信心，我們的語氣沒有改變。所以我們將繼續這樣做。希望它能令監管機構滿意，但他們必須做出決定。隨著我們繼續完成這項工作的待辦事項，控制環境變得越來越好。我們成為一家經營得更好的公司，沒有你們過去都見過的那種經營虧損。

Okay. All right. Perfect. And then, Mike, when you talk about resuming share repurchases in the first quarter, maybe you can give us sort of a sense for sort of magnitude and maybe just an even higher level sort of how you get comfortable repurchasing in the face of what same sort of still uncertain rules out there.

好的。好的。完美的。然後，邁克，當你談到在第一季度恢復股票回購時，也許你可以讓我們了解某種程度，也許只是更高層次的感覺那裡還有一些不確定的規則。

Well, I would start with where our CET1 ratio is at the end of the year at 10.6%. So we're well above our current regulatory minimum and the buffers that are included there. So we have plenty of flexibility regardless of any outcome that comes out of the new rules that will be proposed. And keep in mind, that will take some time to come out and get implemented and phase in. And so there's -- it's not going to happen in a day.

好吧，我將從年底我們的 CET1 比率為 10.6% 開始。因此，我們遠遠高於我們目前的監管最低限度和其中包含的緩衝區。因此，無論將要提議的新規則產生任何結果，我們都有很大的靈活性。請記住，這需要一些時間才能出來並得到實施和逐步實施。因此 - 這不會在一天內發生。

And I think we'll go back to what we've been saying the last number of quarters as we think about the buffer that we'll put on the reg minimum, buffers of 9.2%, we'll be managing somewhere in the 100, plus or minus, a little basis point range.

而且我認為我們會回到我們在上個季度所說的內容，因為我們考慮我們將放在 reg 最小值上的緩衝區，9.2% 的緩衝區，我們將在 100 的某個地方進行管理，加上或減去一點基點範圍。

And depending on what happens with loan growth and RWA growth that we see in the quarter, that will help guide the share repurchases.

根據我們在本季度看到的貸款增長和 RWA 增長情況，這將有助於指導股票回購。

The next question comes from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mike, I wanted to clarify your answer to Ken, about the first quarter NII. I think you said you do not expect a big step down in the first quarter. Maybe you could just frame first quarter NII a little bit for us relative to the [13.4] What are some of the headwinds, tailwinds? And what might you expect at this point?

邁克，我想澄清一下你對肯的回答，關於第一季度的 NII。我想你說過你不希望在第一季度大幅下降。也許你可以相對於 [13.4] 為我們稍微構建第一季度 NII 有哪些逆風，順風？在這一點上你會期待什麼？

Yes. Thanks, John. Well, first, you have to normalize for a couple less days in the quarter. So that's going to be a step down of, call it, $150 million to $200 million step down just there from the [flex] days. And then as you look at -- it should be relatively stable to the fourth quarter, but there could be some -- little bit of (inaudible) room in there.

是的。謝謝，約翰。好吧，首先，你必須在本季度少幾天正常化。因此，這將是從 [flex] 時代開始的 1.5 億至 2 億美元的下降。然後當你看到 - 它應該相對穩定到第四季度，但可能會有一些 - 那裡有一點（聽不清）空間。

Stable minus including the day count or...

穩定減去包括天數或...

You got to take the day count -- adjust for the day count.

你必須計算天數——調整天數。

And then stable.

然後穩定。

You have to -- reducing for the day count.

你必須——減少天數。

Okay. Got it. And then, Charlie, maybe a bigger question, just kind of where are you on the efficiency journey when we think about $50 billion of core expense for this year. And the timeframe for ROTCE, what will it take? Is there an efficiency ratio we should keep in mind? Or is that too hard to forecast? Maybe a little bit on that would be helpful.

好的。知道了。然後，查理，也許是一個更大的問題，當我們考慮今年 500 億美元的核心支出時，你在效率之旅中處於什麼位置。 ROTCE 的時間表，需要多長時間？我們應該牢記效率比嗎？或者這太難預測了？也許對此有所幫助。

No, it's a good question. I think -- so first of all, I think when -- just make a -- just a couple of comments around the expense guidance we gave. Embedded in that expense guidance, we're still continuing to reduce the core expenses of the company. But as you can see on that slide, we're anticipating that we will spend more money on investments that are around technology, digital, building out products and things like that, that offset that some extent to get to an overall flat expense base. Mike did say in his comments, and I just want to repeat it, that we're not going to spend this money at all costs.

不，這是個好問題。我認為 - 首先，我認為什麼時候 - 就我們給出的費用指導發表一些評論。在該費用指導中，我們仍在繼續減少公司的核心費用。但正如你在這張幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們預計我們將在圍繞技術、數字、構建產品和類似事物的投資上投入更多資金，這在一定程度上抵消了這一點，以達到整體持平的支出基礎。邁克在他的評論中確實說過，我只想重複一遍，我們不會不惜一切代價花這筆錢。

We're going to see how the year continues to pan out. It's money that we would like to spend. We're planning to spend it, but there's a lot of discretion in the expense base. So we think it's prudent as we sit here today to plan to spend it, but we're going to constantly be looking at our performance and make judgments on what that should be. And so as we look at the efficiency of the company, we do expect to continue to get efficiency ratio improvement in the place.

我們將看到這一年將如何繼續取得成功。這是我們願意花的錢。我們打算花掉它，但在支出基礎上有很多自由裁量權。因此，我們認為今天坐在這裡計劃花費它是謹慎的，但我們將不斷關注我們的表現並判斷應該是什麼。因此，當我們審視公司的效率時，我們確實希望在這個地方繼續提高效率比。

And if we don't see revenue growth and if we don't see payoffs from the things that we're doing, then we will spend less money. And so that's the way we're approaching it. We're either going to get the efficiency ratio to continue to improve because we're getting real payoff on some things, or we will reduce on a net basis.

如果我們看不到收入增長，如果我們看不到我們所做事情的回報，那麼我們就會減少支出。這就是我們接近它的方式。我們要么讓效率比繼續提高，因為我們在某些事情上獲得了真正的回報，要么我們將在淨基礎上減少。

But overall, there's still gross expenses that should come out of the company, which gives us the latitude to continue to grow the investments inside the company. The timing to get to 15%, listen, it's a great question. As we talked about it, it's medium term, which is obviously not long term or short term. But I would say it's -- without putting a specific timeframe, it is -- it should be something that we have in our sights as we look out over the future.

但總的來說，公司仍有總支出，這讓我們有空間繼續增加公司內部的投資。達到 15% 的時機，聽著，這是一個很好的問題。正如我們所說的，它是中期的，這顯然不是長期或短期的。但我要說的是——沒有給出具體的時間表，它應該是我們展望未來時所關注的事情。

It's not something that's theoretical. It's something that we believe we should get to. And just the problem and we're just trying to stay a little bit away from quantifying exactly where we're starting from just because everyone will make their own adjustments.

這不是理論上的東西。這是我們認為我們應該做到的事情。只是這個問題，我們只是想稍微遠離量化我們從哪裡開始，因為每個人都會做出自己的調整。

And it's just, I think what we're just trying to do is be really clear that we don't want to take credit for the outperformance in NII. We don't want to take credit for the outperformance in charge-offs, and that we still have to continue to drive improved performance each and every year at the company.

只是，我認為我們只是想做的是非常清楚，我們不想將 NII 的出色表現歸功於自己。我們不想因為沖銷的出色表現而受到讚揚，而且我們仍然必須繼續推動公司每年的業績提高。

The next question comes from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So Charlie, I was hoping to ask a follow-up to that last line of questioning around expenses. You indicated that the expense work, it's going to continue beyond 2023, in the 1 metric that we've been tracking is headcount. And in terms of the benchmarking analysis that we've done, headcount is down more than 10% since the 2020 peek or roughly 30,000, but it's still elevated versus your money center peers. I was hoping you could just speak to what inning you're in currently in terms of optimizing headcount.

所以查理，我希望就最後一行關於費用的問題提出後續問題。你表示費用工作將持續到 2023 年以後，我們一直在跟踪的第一個指標是人數。就我們所做的基準分析而言，員工人數自 2020 年峰值以來下降了 10% 以上，即大約 30,000 人，但與您的貨幣中心同行相比仍然有所增加。我希望你能談談你目前在優化員工人數方面所處的階段。

And whether -- as we look beyond '23, whether there is a credible path to actually driving investments lower, you had talked about balancing investment with the need to drive those efficiency gains. I just want to think about the expense trajectory beyond '23, whether further reductions are achievable given some of that inflated headcount still?

以及——當我們展望 23 年後，是否有可靠的途徑來實際推動投資降低，你是否談到平衡投資與推動這些效率收益的需要。我只想考慮 23 年後的支出軌跡，考慮到一些膨脹的員工人數，是否可以進一步削減？

Yes. Listen, I think -- I mean, I think that your point on headcount versus peers is one that we've made. And so yes, we are all different in terms of the businesses that we're in and what we do. But we do -- and some insource and some outsourcing things. But when you look at it, we still have higher headcount and higher expenses than people who are more complex than us. Some of that is explained by the work that we're doing and the expenses and heads that are building out the control infrastructure. But there's a lot more beyond that. That's the work that we're doing to peel that back piece by piece by piece. We still have a huge amount of manual processes inside the company.

是的。聽著，我想——我的意思是，我認為你關於員工人數與同行的觀點是我們已經提出的觀點。所以是的，就我們所從事的業務和所做的事情而言，我們都是不同的。但我們這樣做了——一些內包和一些外包的東西。但是當你看它時，我們仍然比比我們更複雜的人有更多的人手和更高的費用。其中一些可以通過我們正在做的工作以及構建控制基礎設施的費用和負責人來解釋。但除此之外還有更多。這就是我們正在做的工作，將背部一塊一塊地剝離。我們公司內部仍然有大量的手動流程。

We have duplicate systems, and that is -- that's the work that we're on. So when I say that we still have gross expenses to be reduced in the company. We -- there's -- that's exactly what we're talking about. On the -- the question is when we get to a net basis, where does that come out? As I said before, I think that's a decision that we want to be able to make at each and every point in time when we look at what the overall performance of the company is.

我們有重複的系統，這就是我們正在進行的工作。所以當我說我們公司還有總開支要減少的時候。我們——有——這正是我們所說的。關於 - 問題是當我們達到淨基礎時，它會從哪裡出來？正如我之前所說，我認為這是我們希望在查看公司整體業績時能夠在每個時間點做出的決定。

So again, I just want to repeat what I said, we're not going to spend under any environment, at all costs. That's not the way we're thinking about it. If we don't see net improvements in performance of the company, we've got the ability to ration back the discretionary spend so that we do continue to see improved performance of the company. What we'd like to see is that these things are paying off.

所以，我只想重複我說過的話，我們不會不惜一切代價在任何環境下花費。這不是我們考慮的方式。如果我們看不到公司業績的淨改善，我們就有能力減少可自由支配的支出，這樣我們就能繼續看到公司業績的改善。我們希望看到的是這些事情正在得到回報。

We're seeing real sustainable revenue growth based upon these things and the ability to invest. And so that's just kind of how -- that's the framework that we're using to make the decisions. And as we get to each point in time, and it's not even just an annual decision, I mean, Mike and I and the operating committee are going to have these discussions regularly about how are things panning out? What does it look like? And how do we feel about our willingness to continue to invest in these things? And have it -- it's got to be living and breathing.

基於這些事情和投資能力，我們看到了真正可持續的收入增長。這就是我們用來做決定的框架。當我們到達每個時間點時，這甚至不僅僅是年度決定，我的意思是，邁克和我以及運營委員會將定期就事情進展情況進行這些討論？它是什麼樣子的？我們對繼續投資這些東西的意願有何看法？擁有它——它必須是有生命力的。

That's helpful color, Charlie. And for my follow-up, just also as it relates to the discussion around the buyback. You guys are uniquely positioned in that you aren't migrating into a higher G-SIB bucket. Because of the asset cap, you're not going to necessarily see quite as much expansion in terms of balance sheet. And you've conveyed a high level of confidence around a 15% ROTCE, where your stock is trading today, at least on price intangible reflects a pretty healthy degree of skepticism and your ability to get there.

這是有用的顏色，查理。對於我的後續行動，也與圍繞回購的討論有關。你們處於獨特的位置，因為你們不會遷移到更高的 G-SIB 桶中。由於資產上限，你不一定會看到資產負債表方面的擴張。你已經表達了對 15% ROTCE 的高度信心，你的股票今天交易的地方，至少在無形的價格上反映了相當健康的懷疑程度和你實現目標的能力。

Just given the strength of your capital position, why not get a bit more aggressive with the buyback here? Just recognizing the significant amount of capital you'll generate, some of the concerns around AOCI seem to be abating. Would be helpful to get some perspective as to whether you might be willing to step it up meaningfully closer to 100% [type] payout here?

考慮到你的資本狀況，為什麼不在這裡回購更積極一點呢？只要認識到您將產生大量資本，圍繞 AOCI 的一些擔憂似乎正在減弱。了解您是否願意在此處有意義地接近 100% [類型] 支出時獲得一些看法會有所幫助嗎？

Well, so just -- it sounds like you're drawing conclusions to the pace at which we said we're going to buy stock back, which I don't think we have actually said. What we've said is that we haven't been buying stock back. We're absolutely -- we anticipate we're going to begin buying it back. As we think about how much we have available in that capacity, what Mike said was our CET1 went up to 10.6%. Our required minimum buffers are at 9.2%. And we -- it said that we'll manage 100 basis points above the 9.2% plus or minus.

嗯，所以 - 聽起來你正在對我們所說的我們將回購股票的速度得出結論，我認為我們實際上並沒有說過。我們所說的是我們沒有回購股票。我們絕對 - 我們預計我們將開始回購它。當我們考慮我們有多少可用容量時，邁克說我們的 CET1 上升到 10.6%。我們要求的最低緩衝區為 9.2%。而且我們 - 它說我們將在 9.2% 的正負之上管理 100 個基點。

So we do have substantial capacity but the ongoing earnings capacity of the company. And so that is -- that's -- our framework is to target a reasonable CET1 ratio if in the future to raise the levels of capital because of Basel III in-game or whatnot.

所以我們確實有很大的能力，但公司有持續的盈利能力。所以這就是 - 那就是 - 如果將來由於巴塞爾協議 III 在遊戲中或諸如此類的原因而提高資本水平，我們的框架就是以合理的 CET1 比率為目標。

We've got earnings capacity to be able to do that, but we do have the flexibility. And now that we've got resolution with CFPB and things like that, to be able to go buy stock back. And we'll be making that decision based upon our views on the value of the stock and the liquidity in the market and things like that. But as we said, we do anticipate we'll be back in -- as opposed to where we've been.

我們有能力做到這一點，但我們確實有靈活性。現在我們已經與 CFPB 和類似的事情達成了解決方案，能夠回購股票。我們將根據我們對股票價值和市場流動性等的看法做出決定。但正如我們所說，我們確實預計我們會回來——而不是我們曾經去過的地方。

Fair enough. More of my effort to assess the cadence and the magnet, but it sounds like you guys are quite comfortable leaning in here.

很公平。我更多的努力是評估節奏和磁鐵，但聽起來你們靠在這裡很舒服。

Sure.

當然。

The next question from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari 的下一個問題。

I wanted to see if you could just give a little bit more color on the net interest income side. Maybe if you can talk a little bit more about the noninterest-bearing deposit mix shift that you think could continue here. How -- it looks like that could be a pretty material offset to your interest rate benefits. So I just wanted to see if you can perhaps talk about that and maybe also help quantify the runoff that you expect to continue on the deposit side in terms of balances overall.

我想看看你是否可以在淨利息收入方面多加一點顏色。也許如果你能多談談你認為可以在這裡繼續的無息存款組合轉變。如何 - 看起來這可能是對您的利率收益的相當大的抵消。所以我只是想看看你是否可以談談這個問題，也許還可以幫助量化你希望在存款方面繼續從總體餘額角度來看的徑流。

Yes, John, it's Mike. I think overall, as I said earlier, we do expect a moderate decline in balances and some more mix shift changes as we go throughout the year. And so you should expect that to continue. And it's all the stuff that should be expected as we're in this environment, and that's what we're seeing. And if you look at each of the businesses, we're seeing it kind of most acutely happen in the wealth business as people move into cash alternatives, out of deposits, and that's what's happening in a lot of wealth management businesses these days as people move that cash around.

是的，約翰，是邁克。我認為總體而言，正如我之前所說，我們確實預計全年會出現餘額適度下降和更多的混合轉變變化。所以你應該期待這種情況會繼續下去。這是我們在這種環境中應該預料到的所有事情，這就是我們所看到的。如果你看看每一項業務，我們就會看到，隨著人們轉向現金替代品，而不是存款，這在財富業務中發生得最為尖銳，這就是如今許多財富管理業務正在發生的事情，因為人們移動現金。

And then across the rest of the consumer businesses, it's part people looking for higher yields, but it's also part people spending more. And so you're seeing some of that decline come down as overall balances continue to decline as the stimulus has worn off and people continue to be out there spending. So it's a little bit of a number of drivers there. And I think as I said earlier, the -- as you think about the NII pacing for this year, this first half of the year will certainly be higher than the second half of the year, given the trends that we expect to happen. And if those are a little bit better than what we're modeling, then I think that provides some opportunity as we look at the second half of the year.

然後在其餘的消費業務中，部分是人們在尋求更高的收益，但也有一部分是人們支出更多。因此，隨著刺激措施逐漸消退以及人們繼續支出，整體收支平衡繼續下降，你會看到部分下降幅度有所下降。所以那裡有一些司機。我認為，正如我之前所說的那樣，考慮到我們預計會發生的趨勢，考慮到今年上半年的 NII 步伐，今年上半年肯定會高於下半年。如果這些比我們正在建模的要好一點，那麼我認為這會在我們展望下半年時提供一些機會。

Okay, Mike. That's helpful. And then separately, you gave some pretty good color obviously, around NII expectations now. And then also on expenses. On the fee side, can you perhaps give us your expectation there around overall growth that you expect in noninterest income and maybe some of the major drivers of where you see growth and if you could possibly size it up perhaps around the investment banking area, et cetera, that would help.

好的，邁克。這很有幫助。然後分別地，你顯然給出了一些非常好的顏色，圍繞 NII 現在的期望。然後還有費用。在費用方面，您能否給我們您對非利息收入整體增長的預期，以及您看到增長的一些主要驅動因素，以及您是否可以在投資銀行領域擴大規模，等等等等，那會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. And so as you break apart fees, the biggest line item there is the investment advisory fees, and that's going to be somewhat dependent upon where the market goes. So if we start to see recovery in the equity markets at a more substantial pace, that will obviously be a big benefit for that business. When you look at some of the other line items, deposit fees, as I mentioned in my commentary, most of the decline that we were expecting to see as a result of the overdraft policy changes and new products that we implemented is in the run rate. You may see some pressure there related to earnings credit on the commercial side, but the run rate decline for overdrafts is really in there. When you think about investment banking fees, that's going to be somewhat market dependent. We've seen -- it's too early to know how that's going to shape up in terms of the overall industry volume there.

是的，當然。因此，當您拆分費用時，最大的項目是投資諮詢費，這在某種程度上取決於市場走向。因此，如果我們開始看到股市以更大幅度的速度復甦，那顯然對該行業來說是一個很大的好處。正如我在評論中提到的，當你查看其他一些項目、存款費用時，我們預計由於透支政策變化和我們實施的新產品而導致的大部分下降都在運行率中.您可能會看到一些與商業方面的收益信貸相關的壓力，但透支的運行率下降確實存在。當您考慮投資銀行費用時，這在某種程度上取決於市場。我們已經看到 - 現在就整體行業數量而言將如何形成還為時過早。

But as we continue to make the investments in our investment banking business over a longer period of time, we would expect to see some growth there, both in how we go after that opportunity in the commercial bank and middle market space as well as our other large corporate clients there. And so a lot of that's going to be dependent on the market. But we're confident that we're going to be positioning ourselves better and better to take advantage of it. And then we talked about mortgage. Mortgage is a small piece of the -- it's a much smaller piece of the puzzle than it was today. So we don't expect that to be a smaller piece today than it was historically. Sorry, smaller piece today than it was historically. And so -- and that's going to be a pretty challenging market until -- in this rate environment. So I think we're confident in the investments we're making that will pay off over time, but it may take a little time to start to see some of that come through depending on the market dynamics.

但隨著我們在更長時間內繼續投資我們的投資銀行業務，我們預計會看到一些增長，無論是我們如何在商業銀行和中間市場空間以及我們的其他領域尋求機會那裡有大型企業客戶。因此，其中很多將取決於市場。但我們有信心我們會更好地定位自己以利用它。然後我們談到了抵押貸款。抵押貸款只是其中的一小部分——與今天相比，它是拼圖中的一小部分。所以我們不希望今天的部分比歷史上的要小。抱歉，今天比歷史上的要小。因此——在這種利率環境下，這將是一個極具挑戰性的市場。因此，我認為我們對我們正在進行的投資充滿信心，這些投資將隨著時間的推移而得到回報，但根據市場動態，可能需要一些時間才能開始看到其中的一些成果。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I just had one question. I guess, Charlie, in your opening remarks, you mentioned that the impact on customers from higher rates, I think you implied it was not getting worse with the incremental sales. Was that the right takeaway? And if so, and if the Fed were to stop after another hike, do you actually see that the impact your customers may not be as meaningful as feared over the last 6 to 12 months and implications of that on the credit quality and the credit performance of your book? Would love to hear any perspective you can share.

我只有一個問題。我想，查理，在你的開場白中，你提到了更高利率對客戶的影響，我認為你暗示它並沒有隨著銷售量的增加而變得更糟。那是正確的外賣嗎？如果是這樣，如果美聯儲在另一次加息後停止，你是否真的看到你的客戶在過去 6 到 12 個月內可能沒有人們擔心的那樣有意義，以及它對信用質量和信用績效的影響你的書？很想听聽您可以分享的任何觀點。

Sure. What I was trying to say in those remarks was the impact on rising rates is continuing to impact customers on a period-over-period basis, and we would expect that to continue, but it's not accelerating. It's much more linear than exponential. And the fact that it's much more linear is actually a very helpful thing because that gives people -- that's just -- that's a more orderly transition to a slower growth economy and gives consumers a chance.

當然。我在這些言論中想說的是，對利率上升的影響正在逐個週期地繼續影響客戶，我們預計這種情況會持續下去，但不會加速。它比指數更線性。事實上，它更加線性化實際上是一件非常有幫助的事情，因為這給了人們 - 這只是 - 更有序地過渡到增長放緩的經濟，並給消費者一個機會。

It shows that they're adjusting their spending patterns and saving patterns and borrowing patterns to adjust for the reality of higher rates. And on your second question, we would anticipate that we would continue to see deterioration in those metrics continue after the Fed stops raising rates, for a period just because of the amount of time that it takes those things to filter through the economy more broadly. So hopefully, that was helpful.

這表明他們正在調整他們的支出模式、儲蓄模式和借貸模式，以適應更高利率的現實。關於你的第二個問題，我們預計在美聯儲停止加息後，我們將繼續看到這些指標繼續惡化，只是因為這些指標需要更長時間才能更廣泛地滲透到經濟中。希望這對您有所幫助。

That's helpful. And just a quick follow-up. I think you mentioned earlier around commercial real estate. Like are you seeing any stress? There some discussion around the ability of these loans to get refied given the move in rates we've seen over the last year. Any steps within the CRE book? And anything just in terms of home state, a lot of negative headlines around San Francisco. Would love to your perspective on that, too.

這很有幫助。并快速跟進。我想你之前提到過商業地產。就像你看到任何壓力嗎？鑑於我們在去年看到的利率變動，有一些關於這些貸款重新確定的能力的討論。 CRE 書中的任何步驟？就家鄉而言，舊金山周圍有很多負面新聞。也很想听聽您對此的看法。

It's Mike. I'll try to take that and Charlie can add if he needs. When you look at the -- and you're really getting at the office, I think, space more than anything there. There's certainly more stress in the office space than there was a quarter or 2 or 3 quarters ago. And I think you're seeing that. Now it hasn't translated into lost content at this point. And so we're keeping a careful eye on it. And I think it is -- as you look at where you see it most, it is in older, lower class properties. And over 80% of our portfolio is in Class A space.

是邁克。我會盡量接受，查理可以根據需要添加。當你看到——我認為你真正進入辦公室時，空間比那裡的任何東西都重要。與一個季度或兩個或三個季度前相比，辦公空間的壓力肯定更大。我想你看到了。現在它還沒有轉化為丟失的內容。因此，我們正在密切關注它。我認為它是——當你看你最常看到的地方時，它是在較舊的、較低級別的屬性中。我們超過 80% 的投資組合位於 A 級空間。

And so we feel like the quality of it's pretty good, but we will see some stress as we go through here. So far, it's been pretty idiosyncratic in terms of individual buildings and individual places. But we are very watchful on cities like San Francisco, like Los Angeles, like Washington, D.C., where you're seeing lease rates overall be much lower than other cities across the country. And so certainly, those are markets that we're keeping a pretty close eye on and making sure we're being proactive with our borrowers to make sure we're thinking way ahead of any maturities or extensions, options that need to get put in place to help manage through it.

所以我們覺得它的質量非常好，但我們會看到一些壓力。到目前為止，就個別建築物和個別地方而言，它一直很特別。但我們非常關注像舊金山、洛杉磯、華盛頓特區這樣的城市，你會發現這些城市的租賃率總體上遠低於全國其他城市。因此，當然，我們正在密切關注這些市場，並確保我們對借款人採取積極主動的態度，以確保我們在任何到期日或延期之前都在思考，需要投入的選擇幫助管理它的地方。

The next question comes from Erika Najarian of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Just one more clarification question, if I may, on net interest income. Mike, your underlying assumptions to your NII outlook in terms of low to mid-single-digit loan growth, moderate declines in deposit balances in the first half and stabilizing doesn't feel very different from what consensus had been assuming to get to $51.5 billion for '23, which is clearly higher than what's implied by your outlook.

如果可以的話，還有一個關於淨利息收入的澄清問題。邁克，你對 NII 前景的基本假設是低到中個位數的貸款增長、上半年存款餘額的適度下降以及穩定與市場普遍認為的達到 515 億美元沒有太大不同對於 '23，這顯然高於您的前景所暗示的水平。

So I'm wondering if I could reask Ken's question, what deposit betas, what terminal deposit betas, what range of expectations are you baking into that $49.5 billion forecast. And did you make a significant amount of conservatism as you think about your NII outlook? And I'm asking that question because one of your peer CEOs said their $74 billion outlook was not conservative. So I think that given the outlook versus consensus expectations, I did have to reask that question here.

所以我想知道我是否可以重新問 Ken 的問題，存款貝塔是什麼，終端存款貝塔是什麼，你對 495 億美元的預測有什麼期望範圍。當您考慮您的 NII 前景時，您是否做出了大量的保守主義？我問這個問題是因為你們的一位同行 CEO 說他們 740 億美元的前景並不保守。所以我認為，鑑於前景與共識預期，我確實不得不在這裡重新提出這個問題。

Yes. No, look, it's...

是的。不，你看，這是...

Can I just ask to start on. Mike actually goes to the facts. Again, I think one of the things that you're hearing from all of us that were all very consistent on, which I know you appreciate, but I just want to say it anyway, is we don't know what the rate path is going to look like from here over the next 11.5 months, which is exactly what you're asking and exactly what the competitive environment is going to be month by month versus all of the people we compete with. So you're looking at -- we don't know what the alternative is going to be in nonbank deposits, and we don't know what the alternatives are going to be in bank deposits, but we're trying to make those predictions. So I think when we go through all of this, we're all just trying to, in our own way, make sure that there's clarity that we're -- and I'll speak to myself now.

我可以問一下開始嗎？邁克實際上是事實。再一次，我認為你從我們所有人那裡聽到的一件事是非常一致的，我知道你很欣賞，但無論如何我只想說，我們不知道利率路徑是什麼在接下來的 11.5 個月裡，從這裡看起來會是什麼樣子，這正是你要問的，也正是與我們競爭的所有人相比，逐月的競爭環境將是怎樣的。所以你在看——我們不知道非銀行存款的替代方案是什麼，我們也不知道銀行存款的替代方案是什麼，但我們正在努力做出這些預測.所以我認為當我們經歷所有這一切時，我們都只是在努力，以我們自己的方式，確保我們很清楚——我現在要對自己說。

We're trying to give you what we think is achievable. And in our case, based upon the rate curve that we've laid out in the document, and it might or might not turn out that way. We're also assuming, and I talked about this at a conference in December that we are going to continue to raise rates in which we pay our consumers because we're thinking about this not in terms of maximizing short-term NII, but thinking about it in terms of the value of the relationship and making sure that we pay properly for that, so that we're continuing to recognize how expensive it is to get a new relationship and how profitable it can be to keep an existing relationship.

我們正在努力為您提供我們認為可以實現的東西。在我們的案例中，基於我們在文檔中列出的利率曲線，結果可能會也可能不會那樣。我們還假設，我在 12 月的一次會議上談到了這一點，我們將繼續提高我們支付給消費者的利率，因為我們考慮的不是最大化短期 NII，而是考慮關於它的關係的價值，並確保我們為此付出適當的代價，這樣我們才能繼續認識到建立新關係的成本是多少，以及保持現有關係的利潤是多少。

And so if your views are different towards the end of the year as to what the rent scenario could be, that's fine. Specifically, what we've tried to do, as we've gotten closer to the periods with which we see is give you some clarity as Mike did on what we're -- the first quarter is a little clearer to us. But beyond that, is pretty difficult, and we're not going to go through every last beta that we're assuming in terms of what those forecasts are.

因此，如果您對年底的租金情況有不同看法，那很好。具體來說，隨著我們越來越接近我們看到的時期，我們試圖做的是讓你更清楚，就像邁克對我們所做的那樣——第一季度對我們來說更清楚一些。但除此之外，這是相當困難的，我們不會根據這些預測來完成我們假設的每一個最後的測試版。

Yes. The only thing I'd add to it is as you -- as the Fed does -- when the Fed does ultimately peak in terms of rising rates, you will see a lag on pricing as that will continue -- pricing will continue to increase over a quarter or 2 quarters, 3 quarters really all depends on the competitive environment. So you're going to have some lag there. But I'm sure all of us have our own points of view and assumptions underneath those models. But what we're trying to give you, as Charlie said, is a case that we think is achievable through the year. And as I said earlier on the call, I think if we're -- if we've -- depending on how it plays out over the first and second quarter, we could have some opportunity in the second half. But I think it's unclear exactly how that will play out. So we'll obviously keep you updated as it goes.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，就像你一樣 - 就像美聯儲所做的那樣 - 當美聯儲最終在利率上升方面達到頂峰時，你會看到定價滯後，因為這種情況將繼續存在 - 定價將繼續上漲超過一個季度或兩個季度，三個季度真的完全取決於競爭環境。所以你會在那裡有一些滯後。但我敢肯定，在這些模型下，我們所有人都有自己的觀點和假設。但正如查理所說，我們正試圖為您提供的是我們認為全年都可以實現的案例。正如我早些時候在電話會議上所說的那樣，我認為如果我們——如果我們——取決於它在第一季度和第二季度的表現，我們可能會在下半場有一些機會。但我認為目前還不清楚這將如何發揮作用。因此，我們顯然會隨時為您提供最新信息。

The next question is from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I did want to just unpack a couple of things around the correspondent exit and also some follow-up questions as it relates to the mortgage business in general there. I think you mentioned that it's not substantial impact. Maybe you could help us understand revenues, expenses, EPS. I made my own assumptions, but I got a lot of questions from people on what managements say. So I would like to understand that piece of it.

我確實想圍繞記者出口展開一些事情，以及一些與那裡一般抵押貸款業務相關的後續問題。我想你提到這不是實質性的影響。也許你可以幫助我們了解收入、支出和每股收益。我做了自己的假設，但人們對管理層的說法提出了很多問題。所以我想了解一下。

And then could you help us understand how you're thinking about the mortgage business once you exit correspondent, is there any originate and sell servicing retained left in any panel? Or are you staying with this correspondent exit -- your exit that you'll be moving entirely to portfolioing for yourself and the MSR will wind down over time? Just give us some color around that, would be appreciated.

然後，您能否幫助我們了解您退出通訊員後對抵押貸款業務的看法，是否有任何面板中保留的原始和銷售服務？或者您是否繼續使用此通訊員退出 - 您的退出將完全轉向自己的投資組合，並且 MSR 將隨著時間的推移逐漸減少？只要給我們一些顏色，我們將不勝感激。

Yes. So maybe I'll start on the second, and then Mike will circle around to the first. So we are not assuming that we will balance sheet every loan that we underwrite in the future. Again, what we're just -- what we're trying to do in the path that we've laid forward is just to make very clear that we're not interested in running and having a business which is focused on a stand-alone mortgage product. We very much appreciate the importance of mortgage to the consumer base. And we're going to continue to stay in the business.

是的。所以也許我會從第二個開始，然後邁克會繞到第一個。因此，我們不假設我們將在未來承銷的每筆貸款都進行資產負債表。再一次，我們只是——我們在我們已經提出的道路上試圖做的只是非常清楚地表明，我們對經營和擁有一家專注於立場的企業不感興趣——單獨抵押產品。我們非常理解抵押貸款對消費者群體的重要性。我們將繼續從事這項業務。

But we're going to view it as part of the importance in the broader relationship. So that means we'll be originating both, conforming and nonconforming mortgages. And we'll continue to make the decision as to what goes on our balance sheet as we have done in the past. The fact that we'll be originating a lot less will certainly mean that over time, the MSR and the overall servicing book will come down very naturally based upon that, over a fairly long period of time. But we'll also look for intelligent and economic ways to reduce the complexity and the size of our servicing book between now and then. And if those present themselves, we'll certainly be interested in doing that.

但我們將把它視為更廣泛關係中重要性的一部分。所以這意味著我們將發起合格和不合格的抵押貸款。我們將繼續像過去一樣就資產負債表上的內容做出決定。事實上，我們的起源會少很多，這肯定意味著隨著時間的推移，MSR 和整個服務手冊將在相當長的一段時間內自然而然地下降。但我們也會尋找智能和經濟的方法來降低我們服務手冊的複雜性和大小。如果這些人親自出席，我們當然會有興趣這樣做。

And I know Mike will talk a little bit about this, but I think one of the things we were just trying to say when we think about the size of the impact of exiting the correspondent business immediately is given the fact that mortgage volumes are so low and revenues are so low, the revenue impact of exiting the correspondent business in the short term is not meaningful. It's a very small number of people. So that's not all that meaningful in the short term.

我知道 Mike 會談一點這個，但我認為當我們考慮立即退出代理業務的影響規模時，我們只是想說的一件事是考慮到抵押貸款量如此之低而且收入如此之低，短期內退出代理業務對收入的影響並不大。這是極少數人。所以這在短期內並不是那麼有意義。

The real benefit comes over time as we reduce the size of the servicing business, which, as we've tried to make the point is, it's not just reducing expenses, but it's not profitable for us today in a whole bunch of these segments where we continue to have the servicing. And so it becomes a positive over time. And it's just -- but that is not a short-term benefit for us, but certainly a medium- to longer-term one.

隨著我們減少服務業務的規模，真正的好處會隨著時間的推移而出現，正如我們試圖指出的那樣，這不僅僅是減少開支，而且在今天的許多細分市場中對我們來說都沒有盈利我們繼續提供服務。所以隨著時間的推移它變成了積極的。這只是 - 但這對我們來說不是短期利益，但肯定是中長期利益。

Yes. And the only thing I'd add is all you lose initially, Betsy, is the gain on sale on the origination. The servicing is still here. And that in any given quarter over the last couple of years is low tens of millions of dollars. So it's a really small impact.

是的。我唯一要補充的是你最初失去的一切，Betsy，是原始銷售的收益。服務還在。在過去幾年的任何給定季度中，這一數字都低於數千萬美元。所以影響真的很小。

The servicing cost is low tens of millions?

維修成本低到幾千萬？

The only thing you lose today by exiting correspondent is the gain on sale on the origination of mortgage.

你今天退出通訊員唯一損失的是抵押貸款的銷售收益。

The low tens of millions is the gain on sale?

低幾千萬就是賣的收益？

Correct. The servicing of the existing portfolio is still here and...

正確的。現有產品組合的服務仍在此處，並且...

Part of the broader servicing dialogue.

更廣泛的服務對話的一部分。

So there -- because one of the follow-ups I got was it, does it impact the scale? Obviously, it reduces the flow over existing plants. So does that matter to how you price your ... Yes, I mean...

所以那裡 - 因為我得到的後續行動之一是它，它會影響規模嗎？顯然，它減少了現有工廠的流量。那麼這對你如何定價有影響嗎……是的，我的意思是……

No, it's not even close. I mean the amount that we're originating today relative to the scale we have in the business is -- it's immaterial. And we'll -- and even as we downsize the portfolio on the servicing side, the whole point -- our servicing portfolio can be substantially, substantially lower, and we'll still have scale to be able to originate the product. And we would say in a more profitable way than we're doing it today.

不，它甚至不接近。我的意思是，相對於我們在業務中的規模，我們今天發起的金額是——這無關緊要。我們將——甚至在我們縮減服務方面的投資組合時，整點——我們的服務組合可能會大大減少，而且我們仍然會有規模來生產產品。我們會以比今天更有利可圖的方式說。

Okay. And so the remaining mortgage origination channels are 100% retail, is that right?

好的。所以剩下的抵押貸款發放渠道是 100% 零售，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Right. Because you're at a wholesale, you're out of correspondent.

好的。正確的。因為你是批發商，所以你沒有通訊員。

Yes. That's correct.

是的。這是正確的。

The next question comes from Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Question for you. With the CFPB settlement, there was a comment by the head of CFPB about growth initiatives slowing your progress. So Charlie, just a question to you is what are you planning to do in regards to that comment in terms of the growth initiatives? Are you trying to slow anything? Any color on that?

給你的問題。在與 CFPB 達成和解時，CFPB 負責人曾評論說增長計劃會減緩您的進步。所以查理，就增長計劃而言，你打算針對該評論做些什麼？你想放慢速度嗎？上面有顏色嗎？

Yes. I addressed it in my remarks, which is we've been very, very clear. And I think if you look back on every earnings call, let alone any time I speak publicly, we're very consistent in making sure that everyone understands both, internally and externally, that our #1 priority is getting that work done. That is how we're running the company. We have very clear processes internally to make sure that, that happens. And we're very confident that's the case. And the things that we are doing to grow the business, we think, are actually helpful to actually making it a more controlled place. And we're going to continue to go forward the same way we've been going forward being very conscious of making sure things don't get in the way.

是的。我在發言中提到了這一點，我們已經非常非常清楚了。而且我認為，如果你回顧每一次財報電話會議，更不用說我公開發言的任何時候，我們會非常一致地確保每個人在內部和外部都明白，我們的第一要務是完成這項工作。這就是我們經營公司的方式。我們有非常清晰的內部流程來確保這種情況發生。我們非常有信心情況就是這樣。我們認為，我們為發展業務所做的事情實際上有助於使它成為一個更受控制的地方。我們將繼續以我們一直在前進的方式前進，非常有意識地確保事情不會妨礙我們。

Okay. A completely different question. On -- in the past, you've given some color on deposits and amongst different tiers of customers. Any color, any update on where those stand currently and your outlook on that?

好的。一個完全不同的問題。關於——過去，你在存款和不同層次的客戶中給出了一些顏色。任何顏色，關於它們當前位置的任何更新以及您對此的看法？

It's still very much the same, which is kind of intuitive that those who went in with lower balances are the ones who are living more paycheck to paycheck. And they are seeing more stress than those that have not had that. But I would say that it's the rate of change, it's still the same across most of the affluent spectrum. So the trends are still very consistent.

它仍然非常相似，這是一種直覺，即那些餘額較低的人是那些薪水更高的人。與那些沒有經歷過的人相比，他們承受的壓力更大。但我要說的是變化率，它在大多數富裕人群中仍然是一樣的。所以趨勢還是非常一致的。

And our final question for today will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Charlie, kind of to flip this question from your answers to the servicing and the residential mortgage business. Are there any lines of businesses that -- I know you can't go out and make an acquisition, of course, but any lines of businesses you're looking to grow and enhance and beef up maybe through hiring groups of people to do that strategic increase?

查理，有點把這個問題從你對服務和住宅抵押貸款業務的回答中轉過來。是否有任何業務線——我知道你不能出去進行收購，當然，但你希望發展、增強和加強的任何業務線可能通過僱用一群人來做到這一點戰略增幅？

Listen, I think when we look at all of the -- I mean, I've said this in the past, when we look at each of these businesses that we have, and that's going to be a consumer bank, it's consumer lending, wealth, commercial and the corporate investment bank. With the exception of the home lending business and that the rest of the consumer lending businesses that land, it's all going to be based upon returns and what we're seeing in terms of market competitiveness.

聽著，我認為當我們審視所有——我的意思是，我過去說過，當我們審視我們擁有的每一項業務時，這將是一家消費銀行，它是消費貸款，財富、商業和企業投資銀行。除了家庭貸款業務和其他登陸的消費貸款業務外，這一切都將基於回報和我們在市場競爭力方面所看到的。

All of these businesses have the opportunity to continue to grow share. And when we think about the things that we're doing to invest, we are targeting investment banking ads in both, coverage and products. We're focused in commercial banking, the build-out of both, the corporate investment offerings for that customer base, both the corporate investment bank and the commercial bank of opportunities to continue to improve what we do from the treasury services perspective. And so we see growth opportunities there. I've talked about the opportunities in our wonderful wealth management business to bring on some more investment teams as we've reoriented that business.

所有這些企業都有機會繼續擴大份額。當我們考慮我們正在做的投資時，我們的目標是投資銀行廣告的覆蓋面和產品。我們專注於商業銀行業務，為該客戶群提供企業投資產品，企業投資銀行和商業銀行都有機會繼續從資金服務的角度改進我們的工作。因此，我們在那裡看到了增長機會。我已經談到了我們出色的財富管理業務在重新調整業務方向時帶來更多投資團隊的機會。

And when we wind up looking on the consumer lending side, you've seen growth in the credit card side of the business, which we would expect to continue. And our consumer bank is -- we very carefully evolve from fixing the problems that we've had, taking advantage of the franchise. So when we talk about -- and we have this page in the deck, Page 19 in the investor -- in the earnings presentation, we do see multiple places for us to be able to increase the rate of growth by just organically, which sometimes involves adding people. Sometimes it's building technology. Sometimes it's just improved execution. And there are other things like affluent and whatnot that I haven't mentioned, but they're a bunch, and they're pretty broad.

當我們結束對消費貸款方面的研究時，你會看到業務信用卡方面的增長，我們預計這種增長會持續下去。我們的消費者銀行是——我們非常謹慎地解決我們遇到的問題，利用特許經營權。因此，當我們談論 - 我們在甲板上有這一頁，投資者中的第 19 頁 - 在收益演示中，我們確實看到了我們能夠通過有機方式提高增長率的多個地方，有時涉及到加人。有時它是建築技術。有時它只是提高了執行力。還有其他一些東西，比如富裕之類的，我沒有提到，但它們是一堆，而且範圍很廣。

Great. And then just as a quick follow-up. Mike, you guys mentioned that there was a private equity or equity write-down in the quarter. Can you share with us how big that was? And then just -- I know over the years, you guys have done very well in this area. But -- and then second, how big is the portfolio? What's the remaining there?

偉大的。然後作為快速跟進。邁克，你們提到本季度有私募股權或股權減記。你能和我們分享一下那有多大嗎？然後——我知道多年來，你們在這個領域做得很好。但是——其次，投資組合有多大？剩下的是什麼？

Sure. It was about $1 billion write-down, $750 million after noncontrolling interests. And so that's on the first page of the release, if you want to refer back. It was primarily driven by some write-downs in enterprise software companies. And in particular, it was really one investment that drove most of it. And I would just point out, we had a -- that investment is still a very good investment. The company is a good investment, and we're still holding it well above where we -- where the invested amount is. Just to be collect, we're holding it at something like still a little under $0.5 billion.

當然。減記約 10 億美元，扣除非控股權益後為 7.5 億美元。如果您想回顧一下，那就是發布的第一頁。這主要是由企業軟件公司的一些資產減記推動的。特別是，這確實是一項投資推動了其中的大部分。我只想指出，我們有一個 - 投資仍然是一項非常好的投資。該公司是一項很好的投資，我們仍然持有它遠高於我們 - 投資金額所在的位置。只是為了收集，我們將其保持在略低於 5 億美元的水平。

Just to be clear, we're holding it at something like still...

需要明確的是，我們將其保持在靜止狀態……

A little under $0.5 billion.

略低於 5 億美元。

Yes, I would say 10x is what we invested in it. But like all of -- all enterprise software companies, it's the company, it's just -- it's the rate of growth over the next year or so has come down substantially, but it's still a very high-quality company.

是的，我會說 10 倍是我們投資的金額。但就像所有——所有企業軟件公司一樣，它是公司，它只是——未來一年左右的增長率已經大幅下降，但它仍然是一家非常高質量的公司。

And then just more broadly, on the venture business, we've done -- the team has done a great job over a very long period of time, and we still think it's a very good business.

然後更廣泛地說，在風險業務方面，我們已經完成了——團隊在很長一段時間內做得很好，我們仍然認為這是一項非常好的業務。

That was our final question.

這是我們的最後一個問題。

Okay. Thank you all, and we appreciate the time, and we'll talk to you next quarter. Take care, everyone. Bye-bye.

好的。謝謝大家，我們感謝您抽出時間，我們將在下個季度與您交談。大家保重。再見。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。此時，各方可能會斷開連接。